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We’re going to go with the Steelers here in the Super Bowl.  Steelers in a rout 35-14.  Our main reason is because of defense.  Pittsburgh is allowing only 14.5 points per game overall this year and 13.5 points per game on the road.  Arizona, on the other hand, is allowing 25.7 points per game overall this year and a whopping 29 points per game on the road this season.  Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS this year against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season.  Pittsburgh is 78-48 ATS since 1992 as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points.  Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite.  Steelers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.  Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Steelers are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.  Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.  Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win.  Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.  Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.  Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.  Steelers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.  Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.  Steelers are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.   We’ll play Pittsburgh for 5 units tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Reasons why Arizona covers the spread Sunday:

1.)  First of all, I want to state that this side in Super Bowl XLIII is showing the best value of any side I have seen this decade!  Make sure you really load up on the Arizona Cardinals catching a touchdown because this is the safest bet I’ve seen in 10 years in the Super Bowl.

2.)  Arizona’s coaching staff knows Pittsburgh’s system, their strengths and their weaknesses.  This is a huge advantage for the Cardinals.  Ken Whisenhunt and his Cardinals beat the Steelers last season 21-14 at home despite being 5.5-point underdogs.  Although that game was over a year ago, the Steelers really haven’t changed much since that time.  Line coach Russ Grimm is also a former Steeler coach, and he’s got his players extra motivated, focused and prepared to beat the Steelers up front Sunday.

3.)  Arizona’s passing game is built to beat the Steelers’ 3-4 defense.  Pittsburgh’s philosophy on defense is built to stop running teams, but it struggles to defend the pass when not getting pressure on the quarterback.  QB Kurt Warner has proven he can beat the blitz just as he did against Philly in the NFC Championship game by burning their blitzing defense for 4 Touchdown Passes.  The Eagles had the 3rd-ranked defense in the league, and although Pittsburgh’s is a little tougher, Warner will be able to make plays with quick passes to his trio of talented receivers.

4.)  System Play.  We’ll Play Against – Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) – after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.  This is a 104-59 ATS System hitting 63.8% since 1983.  The Steelers have been winning games by forcing turnovers, but the Cardinals won’t be making the same mistakes that Philip Rivers and Joe Flacco did in the previous two rounds.  The Cardinals have only turned the ball over 3 times in 3 playoff games, while forcing 12 turnovers.  This Arizona defense is underrated, and they can make plays just like Pittsburgh.  QB Ben Roethlisberger won’t be able to get away with the mistakes he has been getting away with all season.  Roethlisberger has thrown 19 TD’s to 15 INT’s on the season.  Warner has thrown 38 TD’s to 16 INT’s.  Everyone is expecting the Steelers’ defense to win the turnover battle, but that’s not going to happen with Kurt Warner running the show.  The Cardinals realize that if they don’t win the Super Bowl, then their efforts to this point won’t matter.  Arizona finishes off a tremendous run to end the season, just like the Giants did last year against all odds.  Bet the Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII as our strongest play this Decade in the Big Game.

The Arizona Cardinals have been the surprise team in the league to this point by winning 3 straight games as an underdog to reach the Super Bowl.  Now they find themselves in the underdog role again in the Super Bowl, and they will be using this to their advantage.  Everyone counted this team out after embarrassing losses to the Vikings and Patriots in back-to-back weeks late in the regular season.  But those losses really woke up this team, and Arizona is now more focused than they’ve been all season.  They are also believing they can win, led by veteran QB Kurt Warner who is making his 3rd Super Bowl appearance.  Warner has instilled confidence in this team that they can overcome all odds.  Just last week, the Cardinals blew a big lead, falling behind Philly 24-25 late in the 4th quarter.  Most expected Arizona to fold, but Warner simply put the team on his back and put together the team’s best drive of the season.  Arizona won that game 32-25 after scoring the go-ahead TD in the final minutes.  We feel that drive is what will carry the Cardinals into a Super Bowl win Sunday.  Arizona can now look back on that drive and say that they’ve been here before, and they will not be nervous in this game because of it.  The Cardinals have a huge edge because of former Steelers’ coaches Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm.  These guys helped the Steelers win a Super Bowl a few years back, and Pittsburgh’s personnel and schemes have not changed much since they left.  So they’ll have the psychological advantage heading in, as they coach their players how to score against this defense, and how to stop it.  Arizona has given up just 60, 75 and 97 rushing yards in their first 3 playoff games.  The Cardinals have proven they can stop the run, and their ability to stop the Steelers’ running game will lead them to victory.  Ben Roethlisberger has not been asked to make too many plays all season, but he’ll have to try and make more plays in the Super Bowl as the Cardinals’ shut down the run.  Roethlisberger has thrown 15 interceptions on the season to just 19 touchdowns.  He really hasn’t been efficient, but he’s gotten away with it because Pittsburgh has the best defense in the league.  But he won’t get away with it Sunday, as Arizona is the best offense the Steelers have faced in quite a while.  Arizona has now scored 30 or more points in 4 straight games, and they have all come against solid defenses.  Arizona won’t miss a beat Sunday as they pick up the blitzes the Steelers throw at ‘em, and Kurt Warner continues to make great, quick decisions to beat these blitzes as he’s done throughout the playoffs.  This same Cardinals team beat the Steelers 21-14 last season, and they have that game to reflect on to only add to their confidence heading in.  Arizona is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored this season.  You will be surprised by how this Arizona offense makes this Steelers’ defense look more mediocre than they have all season.  The Cardinals will not be denied of a Super Bowl title Sunday as they cap off  the most remarkable season in franchise history.  Take Arizona and the points.

5* Wiseguy Super Bowl XLIII Total on O 46.5

With Arizona winning Sunday, this will be one of the highest-scoring Super Bowls in recent memory.  Pittsburgh will be forced to get away from their game plan after falling behind early, and they’ll start throwing the ball more often then they are accustomed to.  Arizona will continue piling on the points just as they did against the Eagles last week.  The Cardinals will yield some TD’s, but they will also force turnovers from Big Ben that will lead to easy scores for themselves in the second half.  Look for Big Ben to throw 2 or 3 interceptions in this contest.  Considering he has 19 Touchdowns and 15 Interceptions on the season, this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.  He basically throws 1 TD to every 1 INT.  With Arizona jumping out in front early, Big Ben will make his fair share of mistakes in this Super Bowl just as he did in a terrible performance in his last Super Bowl appearance against the Seahawks.  Arizona is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Pittsburgh is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) versus poor rushing teams – averaging <=3.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.  Arizona is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) vs. good passing defenses – allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.  Arizona is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) off a upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.  The Cardinals are 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992.  When this Arizona offense gets going, they are tough to tame as indicated by this last trend which shows that they are 9-1 OVER after scoring 25 or more points in 3 straight games.  Well they have scored 30 or more points in 4 straight games, and you can chalk up a 5th straight 30-point performance before this game even starts Sunday.  Take the OVER 46.5 points.

I cannot believe the Cardinals are getting a touchdown against the Steelers Sunday.  Yes, Pittsburgh has the best defense in the league, but they haven’t faced many offenses like the one Arizona will put on the field Sunday.  The Cardinals are hitting on all cylinders right now, and Larry Fitzgerald has been virtually unstoppable on the outside.  But the key is that Arizona has found their running game, which has forced their opponents to stay home and defend it.  Arizona has rushed for 111, 86, 145 and 102 yards in their last 4 games.  Edgerrin James has been revived, and his fellow running backs like Tim Hightower have followed his lead.  Pittsburgh will at least have to respect the run Sunday, which will once again open up big plays in the passing game.  This was the case in the NFC Championship against the Eagles as Arizona’s Kurt Warner threw 4 TD Passes, including 3 to Fitzgerald alone.  Fitzgerald will be double-teamed most of the game Sunday, but he’s not their only weapon.  This opens up the door for Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston to make plays.  Boldin comes into this game frustrated and hungry to make amends for what happened last week.  Look for him to have a huge game and become a key difference-maker over the middle.  Arizona has scored 30 or more points in 4 straight games.  This offense cannot be stopped right now, and not even Pittsburgh’s defense will be able to slow them down.  The Steelers rely on the blitz, but Kurt Warner has been killing every team that tries to blitz him.  He’s making veteran, smart decisions and getting the ball out quickly.  He is one of the best in the league at reading the blitz and throwing the ball where the blitz came from to find openings.  Having 3 of the best receivers in the league has certainly helped matters, and Pittsburgh has not faced a trio as dangerous as Fitzgerald, Boldin and Breaston.  I also feel that Arizona’s defense has been taking their criticism personal.  This unit has stepped up to the plate, led by veteran Safety Adrian Wilson who is the longest tenured Cardinal left on the team.  Wilson is one of the best run-stoppers in the league, and the Cardinals have allowed less than 100 yards rushing in each of their last 4 games.  Pittsburgh won’t break the 100-mark on the ground Sunday, as Willie Parker and company are held in check.  It will be on Big Ben’s shoulders to try and win this game, and in his last Super Bowl appearance he had the worst rating of any winning Super Bowl QB in the history of the game.  Roethlisberger was fortunate enough to have a running game and a defense carry the load, but he won’t be so fortunate Sunday.  WR Heinz Ward is banged up, and the Steelers’ offensive line has not performed that well all season.  Pittsburgh has been winning games with their defense, but they cannot stop a hot Arizona Cardinals’ offense Sunday that will put up 30 or more points for a 5th consecutive game.  Pittsburgh will be playing catch-up from the git-go, which is a spot they are very unfamiliar with.  Arizona is 14-3 (82%) ATS in their last 17 games versus excellent defensive teams that allow less than 260 yards/game.  Arizona thrives against the best defensive teams in the league, as you can see by this trend.  Cash in with the Cardinals as the underdog.

Both teams show strong trends for the over in this years’ Super Bowl.  For the Cards, the over is 38-13 in their last 51 games as an underdog and it’s also 35-16 in the Cardinals’ last 51 games overall.  For the Steelers, we see the over is 7-1 in their last 8 playoff games as a favorite and 12-2 in Steelers’ last 14 playoff games overall.  Look for big plays on offense, defense and special teams to put points on the board in this years big one.

5* Super Bowl XLIII “TOTAL” Annihilator on Steelers/Cards UNDER 47

4 straight Super Bowls have gone under and it doesn’t come as much of a surprise as books love to elevate this line to take advantage of the overs loving public.  There is a long layoff before the game.  There is an elongated halftime.  There are the nerves and all the distractions.  All of these things work together to keep teams from being at their best offensively the entire game.  We normally see teams play well in spurts in the Super Bowl.  We’ll take the Under here.