|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-04-21||Houston +10.5 v. Cincinnati||20-35||Loss||-108||73 h 33 m||Show|
15* Houston/Cincinnati AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Houston +10.5
Cincinnati has all the pressure in this game. Win and they become the 1st Group of 5 program to make the four-team playoff. Lose and they don't. That is a lot to deal with, and I don't expect them to handle it well. They no longer need style points either, so don't look for them to try and run it up if they get the opportunity. They just need to win.
Houston has quietly reeled off 11 straight victories since a season-opening loss to Texas Tech. The Cougars have been flying under the radar. And I'm sure they feel disrespected here and ready to try and prove a point. They will also be playing freely knowing they aren't going to the four-team playoff, win or lose. Look for one of their best performances of the season.
These teams aren't that far off statistically. Houston is outgaining teams by 132 yards per game behind a dominant defense that gives up just 290 yards per game. Cincinnati is outgaining opponents by 128 yards per game with a dominant defense that gives up 302 yards per game. This will be a defensive battle, and I think getting double-digits is a nice value in this instance.
Houston QB Clayton Tune is also quietly having a great season. He ranks as the 3rd-best QB in the country according to pro football focus behind Alabama's Bryce Young and Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett. Tune is completing 68.7% of his passes for 3,013 yards with a 26-to-8 TD/INT ratio.
Houston is 6-0 SU in true road games this season and outscoring opponents by a whopping 26.5 points per game. The Cougars are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as road underdogs. Houston is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS loss. The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with Houston Saturday.
|12-04-21||Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 53||16-24||Win||100||44 h 56 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Appalachian State/Louisiana UNDER 53
Talk about familiarity. Appalachian State and Louisiana have been battling for Sun Belt titles for the better part of the last five years. This will be their 7th meeting since 2018 and the 3rd time in the last four years that they will be meeting in the Sun Belt Championship Game while playing twice in the same season.
Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. These teams have combined for 54 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings, and 49 points or fewer in four of those. The UNDER is 5-1 in those six meetings. Louisiana did beat Appalachian State 41-13 in their first meeting this season. While their defense was dominant in holding the Mountaineers to 211 total yards, their offense wasn't as good as the 41 points showed. They had several easy scores set up by four turnovers by the Mountaineers. That's not going to happen again.
Both teams live off running the football and playing defense. Appalachian State averages 41 rush attempts and 29 pass attempts per game, while Louisiana averages 39 rush attempts and 28 pass attempts. Louisiana allows just 18.5 points per game, 348.4 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season. Appalachian State allows 18.9 points per game, 319.6 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.
The UNDER is 14-2 in Rajin' Cajuns last 16 home games. The UNDER is 9-0 in Louisiana's last nine home games vs. a team with a 58% completion percentage or better. The UNDER is 36-15-1 in Rajin' Cajuns last 52 conference games. The UNDER is 9-2 in Mountaineers last 11 games following a win by more than 20 points. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|12-04-21||Kent State -3 v. Northern Illinois||Top||23-41||Loss||-115||40 h 27 m||Show|
25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Kent State -3
It's a minor miracle Northern Illinois even made the MAC Championship Game this season. They went 8-4 with seven wins by one score with the only exception being their victory over lowly FCS Maine. That includes four wins by 2 points or fewer.
The numbers show the Huskies are no better than an average team to possibly below average. They are getting outscored by 2.7 points per game on the season and outgained by 26.3 yards per game. They have a hobbled QB in Rocky Lombardi who sat out the regular season finale in a 21-42 loss to Western Michigan in which they were outgained by 345 yards.
Kent State is one win away from its first MAC Championship since 1972 and second in school history. The Golden Flashes have put themselves in this position by going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss at Central Michigan. That includes their 52-47 win over Northern Illinois in their first meeting.
The Huskies racked up 681 total yards on this soft Northern Illinois defense in that first meeting. It's a NIU defense that has just 14 sacks all season, so they get no pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Dustin Crum threw for 322 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 72 yards and two scores in that first meeting. The Golden Flashes rushed for 359 yards as a team.
Kent State is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game. The Golden Flashes are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 450 or more yards per game. Northern Illinois is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a neutral field underdog. The Golden Flashes are 9-1 ATS in their last nine games after gaining more than 450 yards in their previous game. Bet Kent State Saturday.
|12-03-21||Oregon v. Utah -2.5||Top||10-38||Win||100||24 h 27 m||Show|
20* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on Utah -2.5
Utah has never won a Pac-12 Championship. They have won the Pac-12 South now three of the last four years. But they came up shot in their two title games to Washington in 2018 and Oregon in 2019. The Utes will be highly motivated to hand Kyle Whittingham his first Pac-12 Championship this weekend.
That's why I'm not worried about any type of letdown that would occur from having already beaten Oregon 38-7 as 3-point favorites in their first meeting this season. It will be more of the same here as Utah shuts down the Oregon rushing attack, forcing the inaccurate Anthony Brown to try and beat them through the air.
In that first meeting, Utah held Oregon to just 63 rushing yards on 23 attempts and 294 total yards overall. The Utes did what they wanted to on the ground, rushing for 208 yards and gaining 386 total yards for the game. They played a vanilla second half after taking a 28-0 lead or they could have won by more.
This Utah team has been a different animal since Cam Rising took over at quarterback. They have won five straight and eight of their last nine games overall with all eight wins coming by 9 points or more. They have outgained seven of those nine opponents with the only exceptions being -7 against USC and -13 against Oregon State.
Rising has a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio through the air, but his dual-threat ability has been what makes him tough to tame. He has rushed for 346 yards and five scores while averaging 6.4 per carry. In all honesty, these teams are pretty even outside of quarterback play. Their season-long stats are about the same offensively with Utah having the slight edge on defense. Rising over Brown, the edges on defense and special teams, and Whittingham over Cristobal makes Utah an easy choice as only a 2.5-point favorite.
Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. teams that complete 62% of their passes or better. The Utes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in four straight games, and 34-13 ATS in their last 47 after allowing 125 or less in three straight. The Ducks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win. Bet Utah Friday.
|11-27-21||Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +13.5||31-14||Loss||-105||69 h 58 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +13.5
Syracuse is 5-6 this season and needs one more win to get bowl eligible. It's clear we will get their 'A' game Saturday as they will be max motivated to get to a bowl. It will be a night game and a tremendous atmosphere with home-field advantage worth more than on any other normal week.
I question how motivated Pittsburgh will be for this one. In fact, I expect something less than their 'A' game for sure, which is going to make it hard for them to win this game by two touchdowns or more to beat us.
The Panthers just clinched the Coastal Division title with their 48-38 win over Virginia last week. They will be looking ahead to the ACC Championship Game next week, and they won't be fully focused on Syracuse. They will be more worried about trying to keep everyone healthy for next week to try and win the ACC title.
Syracuse is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following two straight conference losses where they allowed 31 points or more. The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. Their three home losses this season were all close by 3 to Clemson, by 3 to Wake Forest and by 10 to Rutgers.
Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Syracuse) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games against an opponent that covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Syracuse Saturday.
|11-27-21||Tulsa +6.5 v. SMU||Top||34-31||Win||100||65 h 29 m||Show|
25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulsa +6.5
Tulsa has clawed its way back to 5-6 by winning four of its last six games to get within one more victory of bowl eligibility. The two losses came by 3 to Navy and by 8 to Cincinnati on the road in a game they nearly won outright. They will capitalize on this opportunity to make a bowl by winning this game outright at SMU Saturday.
I question the motivation of the Mustangs. They won't be going to the AAC Title game. They are coming off a 14-48 loss to Cincinnati that was every bit the blowout that the final score showed. They were outgained 199 to 544 by the Bearcats. They have now gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall for a lackluster finish. I see no reason they will want to win this game Saturday, either.
Tulsa is the better team despite having the worse record in my opinion. They have played the tougher schedule and are outgaining opponents by 62 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play. SMU has played the weaker schedule and is outgaining teams by 53 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.
SMU was without leading receiver Danny Gray last week and his 49 catches for 803 yards and nine touchdowns this season. He's questionable to return this week and chances are the Mustangs are going to sit him considering this game isn't that important.
And I just think this SMU offense is overrated, managing 355 yards against Houston, 323 yards against Memphis and 199 yards against Cincinnati in three of their last four games. Their defense is poor too giving up 419.1 yards per game and 6.0 per play. Tulsa allows 378.1 yards per game and 5.5 per play this season to compare.
Tulsa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The Golden Hurricane are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. SMU is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 home games after getting outgained by 225 or more yards last game. The Golden Hurricane are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. good offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game. Don't hesitate to buy this to +7 while also sprinkling that money line. Bet Tulsa Saturday.
|11-27-21||Wisconsin v. Minnesota +7||13-23||Win||100||65 h 28 m||Show|
15* Wisconsin/Minnesota Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7
Minnesota and Wisconsin match up very well. They are two physical teams that run the football and rely on defense. That is evident by this very low 39-point total. So getting 7 points in what is expected to be a defensive battle is a very nice value here with the Gophers at home Saturday.
Minnesota just outgained Indiana by 173 yards in a 35-14 road win and outgained Iowa by 132 yards in a losing effort on the road in a game they deserved to win the week prior. In fact, the Gophers have now outgained six straight Big Ten opponents coming into this game. They are playing well enough to knock off Wisconsin, and stay within a score of them at the very least.
It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Badgers off seven consecutive victories. But it's worth noting they were outgained by Nebraska by 54 yards last week in a fortunate 35-28 victory that kept their title hopes alive. They should be favored in this game, but by 3 and not 7 points in my opinion.
Last year, Minnesota only lost 17-20 (OT) as a 10.5-point road dog at Wisconsin. The Gophers outgained the Badgers in that game. They get them at home this time around and will be revenge-minded.
Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 conference games. The Gophers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last seven eight games as underdogs. The underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a game where it committed zero turnovers. Bet Minnesota Saturday.
|11-27-21||Arizona +20.5 v. Arizona State||15-38||Loss||-110||65 h 27 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona +20.5
It's a terrible spot for Arizona State this week. They just lost out on their chance to win the Pac-12 title with their 10-24 road loss as 3-point favorites at Oregon State last week. And now they won't be that motivated to face a 1-10 Arizona team this week. Not only do they have to win, they have to win by three touchdowns or more to beat us.
Arizona State managed just 10 points and 266 total yards against a bad Oregon State defense last week. Injuries are mounting up on offense for the Sun Devils with two receivers and two tight ends out. QB Jayden Daniels is not playing well with an 8-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season and his job will be even tougher this week.
The Arizona Wildcats are flying under the radar here late in the season because they are just 1-10 SU this season. But they have been much more competitive than that record shows, and they certainly have not quit under first-year head coach Jedd Fisch. They will be max motivated playing their biggest rivals here to close out the season as this game means more to them than it does the Sun Devils.
Arizona State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. The Wildcats only lost by 5 as 17.5-point dogs to Washington, by 7 to USC as 21.5-point dogs, upset Cal by 7 as 7-point dogs, and only lost by 9 to Utah as 23.5-point dogs. And Utah is one of the best teams in the conference. If they're not it's Oregon, and Arizona actually outgained Oregon by 42 yards earlier this season.
In fact, the Wildcats haven't been outgained by more than 139 yards in any of their last nine games. In their last nine games, the Wildcats are getting outgained by only 12.2 yards per game on average. They have been much more competitive than their record suggests as stated before.
Arizona State is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite. Take Arizona Saturday.
|11-27-21||Vanderbilt +32.5 v. Tennessee||Top||21-45||Win||100||73 h 35 m||Show|
20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +32.5
Tennessee just clinched bowl eligibility last week with a win over South Alabama to get their 6th victory of the season. I don't see them being that motivated to face Vanderbilt this weekend. And not only are they being asked to win, they are 32.5-point favorites at that.
At 2-9 on the season, this game means a lot more to Vanderbilt as it will be their final game of the season against their rivals. And that record has the Commodores undervalued here down the stretch. They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with three straight covers.
They only lost to South Carolina by 1 as 19-point underdogs. They only lost to Missouri by 9 as 16.5-point underdogs. They covered as 21.5-point dogs in a 17-point loss to Kentucky. And last week was their most impressive performance yet. They only lost by 14 as 35.5-point dogs at Ole Miss. What was impressive about it was that they were only outgained by 16 yards by the Rebels.
Their offense came to life under backup quarterback Mike Wright. He led the Commodores to 454 total yards against a very good Ole Miss defense. Wright threw for 241 yards, but it's his dual-threat ability that makes this Vanderbilt offense better. He also rushed for 61 yards on 13 carries in that Ole Miss game. And I think he can do enough to keep Vanderbilt within the number here against this mediocre Tennessee defense.
Vanderbilt is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 road games following a road loss. The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. The Volunteers are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a win by more than 20 points. Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win. The Volunteers are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after covering the spread in their previous game.
Tennessee hasn't won any of its last 17 meetings with Vanderbilt by more than 29 points. That makes for a 17-0 system backing the Commodores pertaining to this 32.5-point spread. Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.
|11-27-21||Oregon State +7 v. Oregon||Top||29-38||Loss||-106||65 h 59 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +7
The Oregon Ducks suffered their dream crusher loss last week in a 38-7 setback at Utah. Now they know they won't be going to the four-team playoff when they were in control of their own destiny if they won out having that head-to-head victory over Ohio State. But none of that matters now.
I think the Ducks suffer a hangover from that defeat. Now they face an upstart Oregon State Beavers team that is still alive to win the Pac-12 North. The Beavers will be the more focused, motivated team here and I think we are getting tremendous value with them catching 7 points against the Ducks.
Oregon State is 7-4 this season with all four losses by 14 points or less. They have been competitive in every game. They are coming off a 24-10 win over Arizona State as 3-point underdogs. And I think they have what it takes to hang with this Oregon team that gave up 208 rushing yards to Utah last week.
The Beavers should get their ground game going on offense as they do every week. They average 230 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry this season. Their defense has been solid as well, allowing 24.8 points per game and 377.0 yards per game, numbers very comparable to Oregon on both sides of the ball.
Oregon State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog. The Beavers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game. Oregon State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Oregon is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games. The Ducks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites. The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings. The Beavers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Eugene. Take Oregon State Saturday.
|11-27-21||Penn State -1 v. Michigan State||Top||27-30||Loss||-110||65 h 59 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -1
Michigan State suffered its dream crusher loss to Ohio State last week in a 56-7 blowout defeat. Now the Spartans know they won't be making the four-team playoff or the Big Ten Championship Game. I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat now that all of their dreams are gone.
Penn State has put the James Franklin rumors behind them as he just signed a contract extension. I think we get a focused effort from the Nittany Lions, and the fact of the matter is they are the better team in this contest. The numbers agree.
Penn State is averaging 381.5 yards per game on offense and allowing 333.7 yards per game on defense, outgaining teams by nearly 48 yards per game. Michigan State is averaging 429.1 yards per game on offense and giving up 463.4 yards per game on defense, actually getting outgained by over 34 yards per game. The Spartans are a fraudulent 9-2 this season, and they are dealing with a ton of injuries right now.
These teams have five common opponents this season. Penn State is outgaining those five teams by 65.4 yards per game, while Michigan State is getting outgained by 86.2 yards per game by those same five opponents. This shows that Penn State is the better team and it's not really even close.
The Nittany Lions are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Penn State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite. The Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Penn State is 36-14-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a win. The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Roll with Penn State Saturday.
|11-27-21||Louisiana Tech v. Rice +4||31-35||Win||100||62 h 27 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Rice +4
Both of these teams are 3-8 this season, but I like the way that Rice has played to finish the season much more than that of Louisiana Tech. And I think knowing we will get the 'A' game out of rice and less than that from Louisiana Tech will lead to an upset victory for the Owls at home here Saturday.
Rice upset UAB 30-24 as a 23.5-point road underdog. They went on to lose to North Texas in OT despite outgaining them by 53 yards. Then they lost at Charlotte in OT despite outgaining them by 119 yards. They were only outgained by Western Kentucky by 83 yards in a 21-point loss that was much closer than the final score. And WKU is one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country, same with UAB. And last week they lost by 10 at UTEP, another solid 7-4 bowl team.
Louisiana Tech is 1-6 in its last seven games overall with its only win coming against Charlotte in a game it was outgained by 44 yards. The Bulldogs lost outright to a terrible Southern Miss team by 16 as 15.5-point favorites last week, which is all you need to know about how they are currently playing and their mental state to close the season. They have been outgained in five of their last six games overall as well. This team is used to going to bowl games under Skip Holtz, and with that off the table they have struggled to find motivation down the stretch.
The Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games games following a loss. Rice is 30-9 ATS in its last 39 games as a home underdog of 7 points or less. Roll with Rice Saturday.
|11-27-21||Florida State +3 v. Florida||21-24||Push||0||61 h 28 m||Show|
15* Florida State/Florida ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +3
Mike Norvell has done a great job of keeping this Florida State team together this season after an 0-4 start. The Seminoles have gone 5-2 since with their only losses to Clemson and NC State. That includes upset road wins over North Carolina and Boston College, as well as an upset home win over Miami.
Now the Seminoles sit at 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility. They definitely want it, and I know we will get their 'A' game here against their rivals in Florida. I don't think the same can be said for their opponent and I don't expect anything close to their 'A' game.
Florida is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall and just fired head coach Dan Mullen. The Gators are coming off an upset loss to Missouri. They were also upset by 23 as 20.5-point favorites against South Carolina and by 7 as 12.5-point favorites against LSU. Their only win during this stretch was even a concern as they gave up 52 points as a 31.5-point favorite against Samford. At 5-6, they just want their season to be over, especially with the distractions about who their next head coach will be.
Florida is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Seminoles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Gators are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five non-conference games. Take Florida State Saturday.
|11-26-21||Cincinnati v. East Carolina +14||35-13||Loss||-108||56 h 50 m||Show|
15* Cincinnati/East Carolina AAC ANNIHILATOR on East Carolina +14
I think Cincinnati breathes a sigh of relief this week just enough to fail to cover this 14-point spread. They became the first Group of 5 team to be ranked in the Top 4 of the playoff rankings in the eight years since this system came out. They finally got recognized after their dominant win over SMU last week, and I think they are overvalued this week as a result.
The fact remains, all the pressure is on Cincinnati here, and that's a lot to deal with. They hadn't handled it very well in the several weeks prior to SMU, and I think bettors are quickly forgetting that. And East Carolina is playing too good right now to be catching two touchdowns. This is the 'National Championship' game for the Pirates with a chance to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati at home.
The Bearcats went 0-4 ATS in their previous four games prior to beating SMU. They only beat Navy by 7 as 28.5-point favorites and were actually outgained by 37 yards by the Midshipmen. They needed a late surge to beat Tulane by 19 as a 27.5-point favorite and only outgained them by 71 yards. They were outgained by 56 yards in an 8-point win over Tulsa as a 22.5-point favorite. And they got a late INT return TD to win by 17 over South Florida as a 24.5-point favorite.
East Carolina hasn't lost by more than 14 points all season. They sit at 7-4 this season so they've already clinched a bowl berth, so they will be kind of free rolling here and playing relaxed football. Three of their four losses have come by 7 points or less with a 3-point loss to South Carolina, a 4-point loss at UCF and a 7-point loss at Houston. The 14-point loss was in the opener against Appalachian State.
The Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They beat Tulane by 23, South Florida by 15, Temple by 41, upset Memphis on the road and beat Navy by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite. That was a huge letdown spot against Navy and they still handled their business. They had just clinched bowl eligibility the previous week with a win at Memphis. And they had Cincinnati on deck, so it was a sandwich spot. So to avoid the upset there against Navy showed a lot about their character.
Not only has East Carolina been a covering machine, they have also dominated the stats here down the stretch. Indeed, the Pirates have now outgained all seven opponents during this 6-1 ATS stretch. The last three have been mighty impressive as they outgained Navy by 181 yards, Memphis by 161 yards and Temple by 276 yards. They also outgained Houston by 109 yards in a road loss in OT, and Houston is nearly as good as Cincinnati.
The Bearcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites. The Pirates are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs. East Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Pirates are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in its previous game. Roll with East Carolina Friday.
|11-26-21||UTEP +13.5 v. UAB||Top||25-42||Loss||-104||54 h 20 m||Show|
20* Conference USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +13.5
This is the ultimate flat spot for the UAB Blazers. They played unbeaten UTSA last week with a trip to the Conference USA Championship Game on the line. They gave up a touchdown with 3 seconds left to lose, 31-34 in heartbreaking fashion. I don't think they'll be able to get back up off the mat in time to beat UTEP by 14-plus points to cover this number now.
Both of these teams are 7-4 this season, but it's UAB that gets the respect while UTEP has been flying under the radar all season. The Miners got off to a 6-1 start this season before losing three straight, but two of those losses were by exactly 3 points. They rebounded nicely last week with a 38-28 home win over Rice. Keep in mind UAB was upset by Rice recently. And now the Miners want to put a stamp on their season and beat UAB in the finale. They will be the more motivated team here.
UTEP boasts a balanced offense that averages 252 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt, and 148 rushing yards per game. They also boast an underrated defense that allows 23.2 points per game, 339.9 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. Their numbers are very similar to that of UAB, which has a suspect offense at 389.5 yards per game on the season. That offense makes it hard for the Blazers to cover these big numbers, especially given the terrible spot for them today.
Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (UTEP) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games against an opponent that covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Blazers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. Take UTEP Friday.
|11-26-21||Eastern Michigan +9 v. Central Michigan||Top||10-31||Loss||-105||52 h 20 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan +9
It's a great time to 'sell high' on Central Michigan. The Chippewas have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They made a run to close the season to try and win the MAC West. But Northern Illinois sealed the West with a win last week in overtime against Buffalo.
Now this is a huge letdown spot for the Chippewas as the wind has been lifted from beneath their sails. They are no longer playing for a championship, and they already have a bowl bid locked up. I don't expect them to be nearly as motivated for this game as they would have been with a trip to the MAC Championship on the line.
Eastern Michigan has been grossly underrated for years, including this season. The Eagles sit at 7-4 this season as well. Amazingly, they have just one loss by more than 8 points, which came on the road at Wisconsin in non-conference play. That's understandable as Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the country.
Eastern Michigan has pulled several upsets this season. Most recently, they went into Toledo and won 52-49 as 9-point dogs, while also knocking off a very good Western Michigan team 22-21 as 5-point home dogs. Whoever wins this game Friday, I expect it to be decided by one score, so there's value here with the Eagles catching 9 points.
Chris Creighton is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Eastern Michigan. Creighton is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game at EMU. The Eagles are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 road games, including 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as road underdogs. Bet Eastern Michigan Friday.
|11-25-21||Ole Miss +1.5 v. Mississippi State||31-21||Win||100||36 h 57 m||Show|
15* Ole Miss/Mississippi State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +1.5
The Ole Miss Rebels are 9-2 this season and playing for a New Year's 6 Bowl ranked 9th in the latest playoff rankings. So anyone that questions their motivation here against a rival in Mississippi State is out of their minds. These players want this game more than any other game this season, so any concerns about Lane Kiffin possibly taking another job are unwarranted. That will show up in their bowl game if it does at all.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on Mississippi State, which has gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. Now the unranked Bulldogs are actually favored over the 9th-ranked Rebels. Many like to back these unranked favorites against ranked teams blindly. But this isn't the spot for it as Ole Miss is simply the better team.
The four wins during this stretch have come against Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Auburn and Tennessee State. They lost to the best team they faced in Arkansas. And it's worth noting Ole Miss beat Arkansas, and gave Alabama a much better game than Mississippi State, which lost 49-9 to Alabama. Ole Miss beat LSU by 14 while Mississippi State lost to LSU.
While the Rebels get a lot of hype and deservedly so for Matt Corral and the offense that averaged 517.5 yards per game, it's the improvement on defense that has made the difference for the Rebels this season. They give up just 25.4 points per game on the season. They allow 5.5 yards per play, which is the same as Mississippi State, which allows 5.5 yards per play as well but is perceived to be the better defense.
There's no question Ole Miss has the better offense. They average 36.4 points, 517.5 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. Mississippi State is improved offensively this year, but still far behind Ole Miss as 31.8 points, 452.3 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. Ole Miss is outgaining teams by 1.2 yards per play, while Mississippi State is only outgaining opponents by 0.6 yards per play. Ole Miss only averages 0.7 turnovers per game on offense, while Mississippi State gives it away 1.4 times per game. The Rebels force 1.8 turnovers per game, while the Bulldogs force 1.4 turnovers per game.
Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with Ole Miss Thursday.
|11-23-21||Western Michigan -3 v. Northern Illinois||Top||42-21||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
20* Western Michigan/NIU ESPNU No-Brainer on Western Michigan -3
Northern Illinois just clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game with their 33-27 (OT) win over Buffalo last week. Now this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Huskies, who won't care about winning this game and will just be looking to stay healthy going into the title game next week.
Western Michigan would love to beat this team to close out the regular season and will be the more motivated team. And I'm not so sure the Broncos aren't the better team, too. But I'm definitely playing them because of the spot, which screams letdown for the Huskies.
The numbers show the Broncos are the better team, though. Western Michigan is outgaining teams by 106.0 yards per game. They are averaging 448.2 yards per game on offense and giving up 342.5 yards per game on defense. The Broncos are clearly better than their 6-5 record would indicate.
Northern Illinois is only outgaining teams by 2.6 yards per game, averaging 439.1 yards per game on offense and giving up 436.5 yards per game on defense. They have been one of the most lucky teams in the country winning so many close games to get to 8-3 this season. Seven of their eight wins have come by one score with the lone exception being against FCS Maine.
Western Michigan is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games following three or more consecutive ATS losses. Northern Illinois is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.
|11-20-21||Oregon v. Utah -3||7-38||Win||100||52 h 17 m||Show|
15* Oregon/Utah ABC ANNIHILATOR on Utah -3
Utah is a one-way team for me right now. I'm either backing them or passing. Kyle Whittingham has this team playing up to its potential now after a slow start to the season. The Utes are 6-1 in their last seven games overall.
They have one of the best home-field advantages in the country. They are 4-0 at home this season with all four wins by double-digits. And this will be a night game at 7:30 EST at Rice-Eccles Stadium. That makes it one of the best atmospheres in all of college football. Not to mention the Utes would clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Championship with a win, so they have a lot to play for.
I haven't been a big Oregon believer all season. They seem to just keep escaping with wins ever since that victory over Ohio State. I think their run ends here Saturday against the best team in the Pac-12 in my opinion in Utah. The Utes definitely have the better quarterback. I bet Whittingham wishes he started Cameron Rising over Charlie Brewer from the start.
Rising has responded with a 14-to-2 TD/INT ratio. His dual-threat ability has been the key to this offense, though. Rising has rushed for 321 yards and 4 touchdowns while averaging 7.1 per carry. Utah has scored 34 or more points in 6 consecutive games now with Rising at the helm.
Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following two or more consecutive wins. The Ducks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs. Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win. The Utes are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 conference games.
Plays on home teams (Utah) - after three or more consecutive wins against an opponent that's off five or more consecutive wins are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Utah Saturday.
|11-20-21||Vanderbilt +36.5 v. Ole Miss||17-31||Win||100||52 h 3 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +36.5
The 2-8 record for Vanderbilt has the Commodores undervalued here down the stretch. They have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They only lost by 1 at South Carolina as 19-point dogs, by 9 to Missouri as 16.5-point dogs and by 17 to Kentucky as 21.5-point dogs.
Now the Commodores are looking forward to this opportunity to try and knock off Ole Miss. Meanwhile, the Rebels won't be up for this game at all. They are coming off their huge win over Texas A&M last week, and now they have an even bigger game on deck Thursday in the Egg Bowl against their biggest rivals in Mississippi State.
That makes this a sandwich spot. The Rebels won't be excited to face Vanderbilt, and they will be looking ahead to that game against Mississippi State. Since it's on Thanksgiving on a short week, they just want to try and go into that game healthy and fresh. Look for them to rest starters in the second half like they did against Liberty if it comes down to it. This is a tired Rebels team as it is playing for an 8th consecutive week.
Vanderbilt is the much fresher team. They had a bye prior to Kentucky last week, which allowed them to cover that number and only lose by 17. They should still be fresh for this one, which is key going up against a team like Ole Miss that plays with tempo.
The Commodores are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. Vanderbilt is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 trips to Ole Miss. The Commodores are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games following three or more consecutive losses. Take Vanderbilt Saturday.
|11-20-21||UCLA -3 v. USC||62-33||Win||100||49 h 33 m||Show|
15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCLA -3
The UCLA Bruins returned from their bye and smoked Colorado 44-20 as an 18-point favorite. Now they will still be fresh and ready to take down their rivals in the USC Trojans, who don't care about this game as much as the Bruins do. UCLA wants revenge from a gut-wrenching 43-38 loss to the Trojans last year.
USC is a program in turmoil with a lame-duck interim head coach. Their play on the field has reflected it. The Trojans are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Their only victory came in a nail biter against the worst team in the Pac-12 in Arizona by a final of 41-34 as a 21.5-point favorite.
USC lost 16-31 on the road to Notre Dame as a 7.5-point dog. They lost 26-42 at home as a 3-point favorite against Utah. And they also lost 16-31 as a 10-point dog at Arizona State. So they lost all three games by 15 points or more and weren't competitive. I don't expect them to be competitive Saturday, either.
USC is without starting QB Kedon Slovis. Backup Jaxson Dart will get the start, and he just hasn't been as effective this season. And he won't have the services of top wideout Drake London, who has 88 receptions for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns this season. The next-best receiver has 41 receptions, 474 yards and one score, so the loss of London is huge.
The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. The Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. USC is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog. Roll with UCLA Saturday.
|11-20-21||SMU +11.5 v. Cincinnati||Top||14-48||Loss||-110||48 h 4 m||Show|
25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on SMU +11.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats are feeling the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff. They are just surviving and advancing at this point. And they are overvalued late in the year due to their perfect 10-0 record. That unbeaten record is in jeopardy this weekend against arguably the best team they have faced yet in the SMU Mustangs.
The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They only beat Navy by 7 as 28.5-point favorites and were actually outgained by 37 yards by the Midshipmen. They needed a late surge to beat Tulane by 19 as a 27.5-point favorite and only outgained them by 71 yards. They were outgained by 56 yards in an 8-point win over Tulsa as a 22.5-point favorite. And they got a late INT return TD to win by 17 over South Florida as a 24.5-point favorite last week.
SMU is looking at this game as its 'National Championship' game. The Mustangs sit at 8-2 but have a head-to-head loss to Houston, which will likely keep them out of the AAC title game. They would love nothing more than to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati.
The two losses by SMU came by 3 and 7 points this season. They are coming off a 55-28 win over UCF as a 7-point favorite, so they have momentum. And they have the offense to give Cincinnati a run for its money. No question, this is the best offense the Bearcats will have faced this season.
The Mustangs are putting up 41.6 points and 498.8 yards per game this season. Their defense has been respectable in allowing 25.9 points per game. There's a chance the Bearcats will be without leading rusher Jerome Ford, who has accounted for 1,053 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns this season. He missed last week's game against USF and is questionable for this one. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet SMU Saturday.
|11-20-21||Texas v. West Virginia -2.5||23-31||Win||100||69 h 51 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -2.5
There's just no salvaging the season for Texas at this point. The damage has already been done. They have lost five straight games coming in. They followed up their 23-point loss to Iowa State by getting upset as a 31-point favorite against Kansas last week.
I just don't see them getting back up off the mat to take the long road trip to West Virginia. There is so much turmoil in this program right now. I think it's best we keep fading them for these last two games. And I like the spot for West Virginia, which needs to more wins to make a bowl and plays Kansas next week.
It's always a tough trip for this Big 12 teams going all the way out to West Virginia. Just ask Iowa State a few weeks ago when the Mountaineers upset them. And you know West Virginia has had this game circled after coming up just short at Texas last year in a 17-13 loss. They were driving late in the final seconds of that game to go in for the game-winning score, but the refs didn't throw an obvious pass interference penalty in the end zone that likely would have given them the win. I know because I had West Virginia in that game as they covered as 6.5-point dogs.
West Virginia's last two losses to Oklahoma State and Kansas State were misleading. They held Oklahoma State to just 285 yards. They held Kansas State to just 299 yards. They still have one of the best defenses in the Big 12. And their offense should come to life like it did against Iowa State 3 weeks ago when they had 492 yards against a very good Iowa State defense.
This Texas defense is soft as butter. The Longhorns just allowed 57 points to Kansas and have now allowed 30 or more points in 5 straight. They are giving up 38.1 points per game in conference play.
West Virginia is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when coming off a game where they forced zero turnovers. The Mountaineers are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games as home favorites. The Mountaineers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. Whether or not Texas has quit, I expect the Mountaineers to win and cover at home Saturday as I know they will show up for this game. Bet West Virginia Saturday.
|11-20-21||Michigan State +19.5 v. Ohio State||Top||7-56||Loss||-110||45 h 34 m||Show|
20* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State +19.5
Michigan State finally gets its chance to earn some respect with a showdown with Ohio State this weekend. No question the Spartans feel disrespected being this big of underdogs. And I think this line is out of hand this weekend.
Michigan State is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS this season. The Spartans are loaded with a balanced offense that averages 34.6 points per game while rushing for 198 yards per game and throwing for 252 yards per game. I just don't see Ohio State being able to slow them down enough to cover this large number.
I do expect the Spartans to hold their own defensively, too. The Buckeyes are also balanced, but they aren't going to be able to run the football with much consistency on a Michigan State defense that gives up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.
We've seen Ohio State pushed by Oregon, Penn State and Nebraska, arguably the three best teams they have faced. The Buckeyes lost outright to Oregon at home and only beat both Penn State and Nebraska by 9 points each. Michigan State is in the same ballpark as those three teams if not better than them. Bet Michigan State Saturday.
|11-20-21||Kent State v. Akron +13.5||38-0||Loss||-110||45 h 33 m||Show|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Akron +13.5
This game means nothing to Kent State. The Golden Flashes play Miami Ohio next week for a trip to the MAC Championship Game win or lose. They have to beat Miami Ohio either way. So I foresee them looking ahead to that game, and likely not trying to hard to beat Akron this weekend.
Akron continues to battle even without its head coach. The Zips have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They upset Bowling Green, lost to Miami Ohio by 13 as 20-point dogs, lost to Ball State by 6 as 20-point dogs, and lost to Western Michigan by 5 as 26-point dogs. Now they are catching too many points again this weekend.
The key to Akron's resurgence has been QB Zach Gibson. He has provided a huge spark for the offense, completing 69.9% of his passes for 1,151 yards with a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio. His dual-threat ability has been huge as he has been great at scrambling and finding his underrated weapons on the outside.
Gibson should continue his great play against a terrible Kent State defense that allows 36.8 points per game, 496.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. That against opposing offenses that average just 26.1 points per game, 387 yards per game and 5.5 per play. So the Golden Flashes are allowing 10.7 points per game, 110 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play more than their opponents have averaged on the season.
Plays against any team (Kent State) - with a horrible scoring defense that allows 35 points per game or more, after two straight games where 70 combined points or more were scored are 80-35 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Golden Flashes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Take Akron Saturday.
|11-19-21||Arizona +15.5 v. Washington State||Top||18-44||Loss||-110||30 h 34 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona +15.5
The Arizona Wildcats are flying under the radar here late in the season because they are just 1-9 SU this season. But they have been much more competitive than that record shows, and they certainly have not quit under first-year head coach Jedd Fisch. Now they have a great shot to get their 2nd win against one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 in Washington State Friday night.
Arizona State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. The Wildcats only lost by 5 as 17.5-point dogs to Washington, by 7 to USC as 21.5-point dogs, upset Cal by 7 as 7-point dogs, and only lost by 9 to Utah as 23.5-point dogs. And Utah is one of the best teams in the conference. If they're not it's Oregon, and Arizona actually outgained Oregon by 42 yards earlier this season.
In fact, the Wildcats have only been outgained by more than 85 yards just once in their last eight games overall. That was the 139 yards they were outgained by Utah, which isn't that bad. In their last eight games, the Wildcats are getting outgained by only 26.8 yards per game on average. They have been much more competitive than their record suggests as stated before.
This is a terrible spot for Washington State. They just played Oregon last week, and now they have the Apple Cup on deck next week against Washington. That makes this a sandwich spot for the Cougars. They won't be nearly as motivated to face Arizona as they were Oregon, and they won't be nearly as motivated to face Arizona as they will be Washington. I think that factor will have them winning this game by two touchdowns or less and possibly losing outright.
When you look at the numbers, these are very evenly-matched teams. Arizona is only getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season. Washington State is getting outgained by 23 yards per game on the season. The Wildcats have a sneaky good defense that gives up just 367.3 yards per game. The Cougars give up 397.6 yards per game.
Washington State is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite. The Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. Washington State has only been favored three times this season and one was a 1.5-point favorite in a 3-point win against Stanford. They actually lost outright as an 18-point favorite to Utah State, too. Bet Arizona Friday.
|11-17-21||Northern Illinois -105 v. Buffalo||Top||33-27||Win||100||9 h 43 m||Show|
20* NIU/Buffalo ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Northern Illinois PK
Northern Illinois can clinch a spot in the MAC Championship Game with a win over Buffalo tonight. They will be max motivated and not want to wait until next week against a very good Western Michigan team to clinch. They will handle their business tonight against Buffalo.
This Buffalo team has been overvalued all season based on what they did last year when they were the best team in the MAC during the regular season. But they lost their coach and many of their best players. The result has been a disappointing 4-6 season where they aren't likely to make a bowl game because they would have to win out against NIU and at Ball State to get there.
And it looks like the Bulls have packed it in in recent weeks. After getting upset 44-56 as a 13.5-point home favorite against a Bowling Green team that is getting crushed by everyone, they went on to lose 18-45 at Miami Ohio last week. I don't understand why the Bulls are getting so much respect from oddsmakers after those two performances this week, and I'll gladly take advantage and fade them.
This is a great matchup for Northern Illinois. The Huskies are second in the MAC in rushing offense at 220 yards per game. They have run the ball nearly twice as many times (459 attempts) as they have thrown (270 attempts) this season. Well, the Bulls have given up 218.3 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry in conference games this season. And while Buffalo is tops in the MAC with 33 sacks, that won't be a factor here because Northern Illinois has surrendered just 7 sacks all season and doesn't throw much. When they do, they have a dual-threat QB in Rocky Lombardi who can elude the rush.
The Huskies are 40-19-2 ATS in their last 61 road games. Northern Illinois is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Bulls are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Buffalo is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss. Bet Northern Illinois Wednesday.
|11-16-21||Toledo v. Ohio +7||Top||35-23||Loss||-102||8 h 1 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio +7
Don't look now but despite being 3-7, the Ohio Bobcats have a chance to win the MAC East. They are just one game behind both Miami Ohio and Kent State and actually hold the tiebreaker over the Redhawks. They have a lot to play for the rest of the way and are flying under the radar.
Indeed, the Bobcats are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with all three losses coming by 7 points or less. They are coming off two straight upset wins over Miami Ohio 35-33 as 7-point underdogs and Eastern Michigan 34-26 as 6-point dogs. Now this is a huge game on Senior Night at home against Toledo, and I think we get another big effort from them in a game they can certainly win outright.
Toledo sits at 5-5 on the season and was officially eliminated from MAC West title contention last week when Northern Illinois beat Ball State to get to 5-1 in the conference, while Toledo sits at 3-3. The Huskies already beat the Rockets, so they have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
I question Toledo's motivation the rest of the way now that they have been eliminated from the MAC title picture. Yes, they want to get bowl eligible bowl with another win, but they know they have lowly Akron on deck at home next week to accomplish that.
Toledo is getting way too much respect off its 49-17 win over lowly Bowling Green last week. Remember, the Rockets had gone 1-3 SU in their previous four games with upset losses to Northern Illinois as a 13.5-point favorite, Central Michigan as a 5-point favorite and Eastern Michigan as a 9-point favorite. They cannot be trusted to go on the road and lay 7 points her against this surging Ohio team with more to play for.
The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win. Toledo is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. Ohio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games. The Bobcats are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet Ohio Tuesday.
|11-13-21||TCU +12.5 v. Oklahoma State||Top||17-63||Loss||-110||32 h 18 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on TCU +12.5
The firing of Gary Patterson lit a fire under the TCU Horned Frogs. It also helped that they one of the best interim head coaches possible in Jerry Kill. He guided the Horned Frogs to a 30-28 upset win over Baylor as 7.5-point underdogs last week. And I think they give a big effort again this week against Oklahoma State.
The win over Baylor wasn't fluky at all. The Horned Frogs racked up 562 total yards and held the Bears to just 393 yards, outgaining them by 169 yards. QB Chandler Morris went 29-of-41 for 461 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 70 yards and a score. Look out for him here down the stretch in the Big 12 after that performance.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on Oklahoma State after opening 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season and massively exceeding expectations. Now they are laying double-digits here against TCU when they shouldn't be. While the Cowboys have a great defense, their offense leaves a lot to be desired and makes it difficult to cover these kinds of numbers.
They average just 28.8 points per game, 382.4 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season. To compare, TCU is putting up 31.3 points, 450.6 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. They are at a disadvantage on defense, but they can more than make up for it on offense this week.
Plays on any team (TCU) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 points or more with 4 or more starters returning than their opponent are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Roll with TCU Saturday.
|11-13-21||Georgia v. Tennessee +20.5||41-17||Loss||-110||28 h 56 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee +20.5
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Georgia Bulldogs due to being 9-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country. That record and ranking has them overvalued as the betting public continues to back them and push these spreads higher than they should be down the stretch. Missouri covered against them last week, and I expect Tennessee to cover this 20.5-point spread this week.
This looks like Georgia's toughest test of the season to date. Tennessee is no joke. The Volunteers are 5-4 this season with losses to Pitt by 7 and Ole Miss by 5. They did lose by more to Florida and Alabama, but those games were much closer than the final scores would indicate. And I think they can take Georgia to the wire this week.
Tennessee boasts one of the best offenses in the country in averaging 38.2 points, 457.1 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. They are averaging 8.6 points, 77 yards and 1.0 yards per play more than their opponents normally allow on the season. And their defense is better than it gets credit for, holding opponents to 5.3 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.9 yards per play.
The key here is Tennessee's defense has been good at stopping the run. They give up just 3.8 yards per carry this season. That should help them slow down a Georgia rushing attack that averages 190 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. Their ability to stop the run will keep them in this game for four quarters, and Georgia hasn't seen an offense this good all season, especially not one that plays at the kind of pace that Tennessee does. I expect the Bulldogs to give up their largest point total of the season. Roll with Tennessee Saturday.
|11-13-21||UL-Lafayette v. Troy +7||Top||35-21||Loss||-115||28 h 48 m||Show|
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Troy +7
I love the spot for the Troy Trojans this week. They sit at 5-4 and with a chance to clinch bowl eligibility. They are also just one game back in the Sun Belt East division and very much alive to win the conference title. That makes this kind of their 'National Championship' game this weekend.
Meanwhile, it's just another game for Louisiana-Lafayette. The Rajin' Cajuns are 8-1 this season and 6-0 in Sun Belt play. They just clinched the West Division title with their 21-17 win over Georgia State last week. Second place is just 2-3 in the division as it's by far the weaker of the two divisions. I question their motivation the rest of the way.
Louisiana is nowhere near as good as its 8-1 record, either. The Rajin' Cajuns have won so many close games this year. They beat Nicholls State by 3 as 26-point favorites, Georgia Southern by 8 as 14.5-point favorites, South Alabama by 2 as 12-point favorites, Arkansas State by 1 as 17-point favorites and Georgia State by 4 as 13.5-point favorites. That's five wins against five bad teams all by one score. I think this game will be decided by one score, too.
Troy has a tendency of playing in close games, too. Five of the Trojans' nine games have been decided by one score. Eight of their nine games have been decided by 13 points or less with the lone exception behind their 55-3 win over Southern in the opener.
Troy has a great defense that keeps it in games. The Trojans give up just 21.8 points per game, 316.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season. The key to stopping Louisiana is stopping their rushing attack that averages 204 yards per game and 5.2 per carry. Well, Troy has the antidote with a run defense that gives up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry.
The Rajin' Cajuns are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The Trojans are 3-1 at home this season. They showed they could play with the big boys in this conference as they went on the road and only lost to Coastal Carolina 28-35 as 17-point underdogs. And now they'll give the Rajin' Cajuns a run for their money this weekend. Take Troy Saturday.
|11-13-21||Miami-FL v. Florida State OVER 60.5||28-31||Loss||-110||28 h 46 m||Show|
15* Miami/Florida State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 60.5
The Miami Hurricanes are rolling offensive right now behind freshman sensation quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. They have scored 28 or more points in six consecutive games behind Van Dyke. He is completing 63.6% of his passes for 1,877 yards with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the season. Their offense has also gone for 420 or more yards in six of their last seven games overall.
Florida State got good news this week with the return of QB Jordan Travis after he sat out last game against NC State. Travis is completing 62.9% of his passes with an 11-to-5 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 340 yards and four scores and his dual-threat ability makes this FSU offense much more dynamic.
Both defenses have been disappointing this season and the offenses should steal the show in this rivalry game. The Seminoles allow 27.0 points per game this season against a weak schedule of opposing offenses. This Miami offense may be the best they've seen all season. The Hurricanes allow 30.4 points and 405.3 yards per game on the season.
The OVER is 5-1 in Miami's last six games overall with combined scores of 58 or more points in all six games and 61 or more points in five of them. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
|11-13-21||New Mexico State +52 v. Alabama||Top||3-59||Loss||-110||71 h 1 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +52
Alabama always gets a cupcake out of conference opponent late in the year. And I almost always fade them in this spot. I'm going to do it again this year with New Mexico State this week.
Alabama just played a huge rivalry game with LSU last week and struggled to a 20-14 victory. Now they got Arkansas on deck next week. They won't be looking to run up the score on New Mexico State as they always seem to take it easy on these opponents that are just looking for a paycheck.
New Mexico State has been one of my favorite teams to back this season. They have just one win this season but their record has them undervalued. That's why they have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. They haven't lost a single game by more than 27 points this season.
I had a really bad beat on the Aggies last week. They were getting 18.5 points and were up 13-7 on Utah State at halftime. But they got outscored 26-0 in the 2nd half and failed to cover by 3.5 points. They squandered several opportunities deep in Utah State territory. They were only outgained by 110 yards.
In fact, they have only been outgained by more than 110 yards just once in their past eight games. They have been competitive in the stats due to an offense that has produced at least 345 yards in 8 straight games. And this offense is capable of putting up a couple scores on this Alabama defense to stay within the number. And I like that the Aggies are still fresh after having a bye prior to that Utah State game.
Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games against bad defensive teams that allow 450 or more total yards per game. The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. Give me the Aggies and all these points against an Alabama team that will be looking to play backups and burn clock in the 2nd half. Bet New Mexico State Saturday.
|11-13-21||Oklahoma v. Baylor +6||14-27||Win||100||24 h 17 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/Baylor FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Baylor +6
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Oklahoma Sooners. They are a fraudulent 9-0 this season with five wins coming by one score. I think there's a good chance this game is decided by a single score, so there's value in getting the Baylor Bears catching 6 points at home Saturday.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on Baylor after their 28-30 upset home loss to TCU. I don't think they took TCU seriously because they had just fired their head coach leading into that game. And the Bears couldn't help but look ahead to this game against Oklahoma, and it costs them. Now this is their 'National Championship' and we should get an 'A' effort from the Bears this week.
No question the Bears have the numbers of an elite team. They average 36.3 points, 457.4 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play on offense. They give up 20.6 points per game, 364.1 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play on defense. They outscore their opponents by 15.7 points per game, outgain them by 93.6 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.
When you compare those numbers to Oklahoma, they are very similar and this line should be close to a PK with perhaps Baylor actually favored. Oklahoma outgain opponents by 95.4 yards per game and 1.5 yards per play. The Sooners outscore their opponents by 18.7 points per game. And keep in mind Baylor has played the tougher schedule up to this point having already played Oklahoma State and Iowa State. Oklahoma still has to play the three other best teams in the conference in Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State the next three weeks.
Plays on home teams (Baylor) - a good rushing team (190-230 RYPG) against an average rushing team (140-190 RYPG) after 7-plus games, after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Baylor is 8-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game over the last three seasons. The Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Baylor is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games. The Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win by more than 20 points. Baylor is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Sooners. Take Baylor Saturday.
|11-13-21||Rutgers +7 v. Indiana||38-3||Win||100||24 h 16 m||Show|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Rutgers +7
The Indiana Hoosiers came into the season ranked in the Top 25. They have fallen flat on their faces and currently sit at 2-7 on the season after losing 29-7 to Michigan last week. The Hoosiers now won't be going bowling, and I question their motivation the rest of the way.
Rutgers is highly motivated to get to a bowl game. They sit at 4-5 on the season and close with Maryland at home. This is a very winnable game for them and I think they'll be 'all in' here to get it. Their 'A' effort should be good enough to cover this 7-point spread and possibly pull off the upset.
Indiana has been held to 0, 7, 7 and 15 points in four of its last five games. The Hoosiers don't have the offense to get margin, so asking them to cover this 7-point spread is asking a lot. Rutgers has a very good defense that can hold this Indiana offense in check as well.
The Scarlet Knights allow 24.9 points per game on the season, while the Hoosiers give up 31.3 points per game. Rutgers scores 21.3 points per game while Indiana scores 20.3 points per game. So when you look at the numbers, it's clear Rutgers is the better team this season. They should not be catching nearly this many points, if any points at all, especially given the favorable motivational situation for them compared to the Hoosiers.
The Scarlet Knights are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Rutgers is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog. Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall. Greg Schiano is 29-13 ATS as a road underdog as a head coach. Schiano is 16-2 ATS in his last 18 road games after losing two of his last three games as a head coach. Bet Rutgers Saturday.
|11-12-21||Cincinnati v. South Florida +23.5||Top||45-28||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
20* Cincinnati/South Florida ESPN 2 No-Brainer on South Florida +23.5
You're paying a tax to back the Cincinnati Bearcats because they are 9-0 on the season and trying to make the four-team playoff. They are feeling the pressure of trying to make the playoff and live up to expectations, and it has shown with their play on the field of late as they have gone 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall while being in three straight dog fights against suspect competition.
Indeed, the Bearcats only beat Navy 27-20 as 28.5-point favorites. They managed just 271 total yards and were outgained by 37 yards. Then they had to pull away late to beat Tulane 31-12 as 27.5-point favorites. They managed just 351 total yards and outgained a 1-8 Tulane team by just 71 yards. And last week they needed a couple goal line stands to beat Tulsa 28-20 as 22.5-point favorites. They managed just 390 total yards and were outgained by 56 yards by the Golden Hurricane.
I just don't think Cincinnati can be trusted to keep laying these kinds of big numbers, including this week at South Florida. Their offense isn't dynamic enough to cover these big numbers, and they keep getting the opponents' best shot. That will be the case this week for South Florida as they will look at this game as their 'National Championship' as they sit at just 2-7 on the season and won't be going bowling.
South Florida may not have to face Cincinnati star RB Jerome Ford, who has accounted for 1,053 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns. Either way, I like the Bulls tonight. They are much better than their 2-7 record would indicate. They opened 1-4 this season with all four losses to ranked teams, so they have played a brutal schedule and won't be phased by Cincinnati.
The Bulls have since gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and have been competitive in every game. They only lost 31-32 to Tulsa as 7.5-point dogs, beat Temple 34-14 as 2-point favorites, lost 14-29 at ECU despite only getting outgained by 80 yards and turned it over four times, and lost 42-54 as 13.5-point home dogs to Houston. That's a Houston team that is playing as well as anyone in the AAC right now.
A very bad South Florida team only lost 7-28 at Cincinnati as 22-point underdogs last year. They committed five turnovers and were only outgained by 42 yards by the Bearcats, so it was closer than the final score. In fact, Cincinnati hasn't beaten South Florida by more than 22 points in any of the last 18 meetings, making for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Bulls pertaining to this 23.5-point spread. Bet South Florida Friday.
|11-11-21||North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5||Top||23-30||Win||100||7 h 17 m||Show|
20* UNC/Pittsburgh ESPN No-Brainer on Pittsburgh -6.5
The Pittsburgh Panthers are 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS this season and have been one of the most underrated teams in college football. All seven wins came by 7 points or more including six by double-digits. Both losses came by a combined 7 points. They will beat the UNC Tar Heels by a touchdown or more tonight.
It's going to be a great atmosphere in Pittsburgh tonight with the Panthers on the verge of winning the Coastal title. It will be a bigger home-field advantage than normal. And the fact of the matter is Pittsburgh is better on both sides of the football, especially defensively.
Kenny Pickett is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He is completing 68.7% of his passes with a 29-to-3 TD/INT ratio this season. He leads a Pittsburgh offense that is averaging 45.0 points, 541.1 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season. Pickett and company will have their way with a UNC defense that allows 33.4 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.
UNC has a good offense in averaging 38.9 points and 488.8 yards per game this season. But the passing game isn't what is was expected to be with Sam Howell, and the Tar Heels have actually had to rely on the run a lot averaging 215 rushing yards per game. Well, that's not going to work against his Pitt defense.
Pittsburgh only allows 22.7 points, 344.1 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. While you can throw on them a little, you cannot run on them. The Panthers give up 107 rushing yards per game and just 3.2 yards per carry, which ranks 12th nationally. Pitt will make UNC one-dimensional, and that will make them much easier to stop.
This is a tough spot for UNC after needing a huge 4th quarter comeback to beat Wake Forest 58-55 as 2.5-point home favorites on Saturday. Now they have to come back Thursday and try and stop this potent Pitt offense after the defense was just gashed for 615 yards by Wake Forest. Pitt should score at will in this game and get enough stops to cover this number.
UNC is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a conference win. The Tar Heels are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games off a conference home win. The Tar Heels are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS on the road this season and losing by 12.3 points per game. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their four games vs. a team with a winning record this season. Bet Pittsburgh Thursday.
|11-10-21||Toledo v. Bowling Green OVER 49.5||Top||49-17||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Toledo/Bowling Green OVER 49.5
This is a very low total for a MAC week night game and I don't think it's justified. So we'll back the OVER and root for yet another shootout in the MAC tonight in a game between two teams that are playing as shootout teams of late.
Toledo is coming off a 52-49 loss to Eastern Michigan last week in which the Rockets gained 672 total yards and somehow lost. Their defense will be tired from that shootout, but their offense should be ready to hang another big number on Bowling Green tonight.
The OVER is 4-0 in Bowling Green's last four games overall. They combined for 55 points with Akron, 60 points with Northern Illinois, 79 points with Eastern Michigan and 100 points with Buffalo. That's why it is shocking to see this total so low tonight.
The Falcons have a better passing game than they get credit for and will need it to try and keep up with Toledo. Bowling Green has passed for at least 221 yards in seven of their last eight games overall, including at least 235 yards in five straight games. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|11-09-21||Ohio v. Eastern Michigan OVER 60||34-26||Push||0||11 h 33 m||Show|
15* MAC Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Ohio/Eastern Michigan OVER 60
Eastern Michigan has been mighty impressive on offense the last three weeks. They put up 31 points against Ball State, 55 against Bowling Green and 52 against Toledo. I think they can virtually almost cover this OVER on their own, but I'm expecting them to get some help, too.
Eastern Michigan QB Ben Bryant is one of the most underrated starters in college football. He is completing 69.3% of his passes for 2,190 yards with a 13-to-5 TD/INT ratio this season. He has thrown for at least 286 yards in four of his last five games and will lead this pass-heavy Eagles attack again tonight.
Ohio has scored at least 26 points in each of its last five games. It is coming off a 35-point effort against a very good Miami Ohio defense last week. So the Bobcats are capable of matching the Eagles score for score in this one.
Both teams have average to above-average offenses, but both teams definitely have below-average defenses. Ohio gives up 6.0 yards per play against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play. Eastern Michigan gives up 6.0 yards per play against teams that only average 5.3 yards per play. Both defenses are tired after Ohio gave up 569 yards to Miami last week, while Eastern Michigan allowed 672 yards to Toledo.
The OVER is 6-1 in Bobcats last seven Tuesday games. The OVER is 4-0 in Eagles last four Tuesday games. The OVER is 7-1 in Eagles last eight games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards last game. Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|11-09-21||Akron +26 v. Western Michigan||Top||40-45||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Akron +26
The Akron Zips are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. The only exception was a blowout loss to Buffalo in which they turned it over four times. The other three games have been mighty impressive.
Indeed, it started with a 35-20 upset win at Bowling Green as 14-point dogs. They also covered in a 21-34 loss at Miami Ohio as 20-point dogs. And last week they covered as 20-point dogs in a 25-31 road loss at Ball State in which they had a chance to win the game on the final drive but fumbled going into the end zone.
Akron did fire their head coach after that loss to Ball State, which wasn't fair. But I always like backing teams in their first game without their head coach because they tend to rally around one another. And I expect that to be the case for them tonight as they easily stay within this 26-point spread.
The key to the Zips being more competitive of late is the play of QB Zach Gibson at quarterback. He is completing 71.9% of his passes with an 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio and was the main guy in each of their last three covers against Bowling Green, Miami Ohio and Ball State. Gibson went 24-of-31 passing for 331 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals last week.
I also hate the spot for Western Michigan. The Broncos are now 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall to fall out of the MAC title chase. They lost 20-45 outright as a 13.5-point home favorite against Ball State. They lost 15-34 as a 1.5-point road favorite at Toledo. And last week they lost 30-42 as a 9-point home favorite against Central Michigan.
I question this team's focus the rest of the way, especially this week laying 26 points to Akron, which will be very difficult to cover whether they are focused or not. The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Western Michigan is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight conference games. Bet Akron Tuesday.
|11-06-21||Mississippi State v. Arkansas -5||28-31||Loss||-105||51 h 27 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas -5
I definitely like the spot for the Arkansas Razorbacks this week. They are coming off their bye week. They basically had two weeks off in a row as they beat Arkansas Pine Bluff 45-3 going into their bye. So they have had plenty of time to prepare for Mike Leach's Air Raid system.
The Razorbacks have been great at defending these spread offenses under Sam Pittman. They upset Ole Miss last year and nearly upset them again this year, losing by 1 on the road. They drop eight into coverage and keep the ball in front of them against these spread teams.
Last year, they went on the road and upset Mississippi State 21-14 as 16.5-point underdogs. They forced four Mississippi State turnovers. And I think they turn them over at least a couple times Saturday. Arkansas only gives up 168 passing yards per game and 6.6 yards per attempt this season, so they are built to stop the pass.
And this is the best Razorbacks offense they have had in several years. They average 32.8 points and 465.3 yards per game this season. They are averaging 6.6 yards per play against teams that normally allow 5.9 yards per play, so they are exceeding expectations on offense by 0.7 yards per play.
Defensively they give up just 5.2 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.9 yards per play, so they are holding opponents to 0.7 yards per play below their season average. They are outgaining teams by 1.4 yards per play overall, which is one of the best marks in all of college football.
To compare, Mississippi State is only outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per play, basically breaking even on the season. Mississippi State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off two or more consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs off two straight wins over lowly Vanderbilt and overrated Kentucky. Roll with Arkansas Saturday.
|11-06-21||Utah State v. New Mexico State +18.5||35-13||Loss||-106||51 h 27 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico State +18.5
New Mexico State has been a big money maker for me and I'm going to continue to ride them as 18.5-point underdogs to Utah State Saturday. The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and consistently catching too many points on a weekly basis. Their only non-cover came in a 20-point loss to Hawaii as 17-point dogs.
They have played some great competition during this stretch and hung tough. They lost by 18 at SDSU as a 31.5-point dogs, by 9 at New Mexico as a 19.5-point dogs, beat South Carolina State by 8 as a 3.5-point favorite, lost by 6 to San Jose State as a 26-point dog, lost by 27 to Nevada as a 28-point dog and lost by 14 to Hawaii in their 2nd meeting as an 18-point dog.
Not only are they covering, but they are playing these teams tough in the stats, too. The Aggies actually outgained San Diego State by 11 yards, were only outgained by 91 yards by Hawaii in the first meeting and outgained them by 3 yards in the second meeting. They were only outgained by 80 yards by Nevada and by 19 yards by San Jose State. So they have only been outgained by more than 91 yards once in their last seven games.
Now the Aggies come in on two weeks' rest after a much-needed bye week following eight games in eight weeks to start the season. They are primed for a big effort here against a Utah State team that is getting too much respect after winning and covering its last two games against Colorado State and Hawaii. They were actually outgained by 128 yards in their win over Colorado State, too.
In the three games prior, they barely beat UNLV 2824, lost by 14 to BYU at home and lost by 24 to Boise State at home. This team has a good offense, which is why they get respect, but their terrible defense is going to keep New Mexico State's underrated offense in this game for four quarters. The Aggies rank 108th in total defense, giving up 435.1 yards per game.
New Mexico State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a loss. New Mexico State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Mountain West opponents. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take New Mexico State Saturday.
|11-06-21||Tulsa +23 v. Cincinnati||20-28||Win||100||51 h 57 m||Show|
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulsa +23
It's time to 'sell high' on the Cincinnati Bearcats. They are 8-0 this season and starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff. They barely beat Navy 27-20 as 29-point favorites two weeks ago and managed just 271 total yards against the Midshipmen. Last week they were in a dog fight with lowly Tulane as a 28-point favorite before pulling away 31-12, but only managing 351 total yards.
Now they face a much better Tulsa team here that we want to 'buy low' on due to their 3-5 record. But Tulsa is way better than that record would indicate. And they are coming off an upset loss to Navy last week that has them undervalued.
Remember, Tulsa only lost by 5 as a 10.5-point dog at Oklahoma State. The Golden Hurricane came back the next week and were in a one-score game with Ohio State on the road in the 4th quarter before eventually losing by 21 as a 24.5-point favorite. They have only lost by more than 21 points once all season.
Amazingly, Tulsa is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games against ranked opponents. They just have a way of playing up to their level of competition. Last year, Tulsa only lost 24-27 at Cincinnati as a 13.5-point dog. They also covered as 15.5-point dogs in a 13-24 loss at Cincinnati the year prior. Each of the last eight meetings were decided by 19 points or fewer as well. Take Tulsa Saturday.
|11-06-21||Georgia Tech +10.5 v. Miami-FL||Top||30-33||Win||100||48 h 58 m||Show|
20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Georgia Tech +10.5
It's time to 'sell high' on the Miami Hurricanes this week. They are coming off two straight upset wins as underdogs over NC State (by 1) and Pittsburgh (by 4) despite giving up 421 yards to NC State and 587 more to Pitt. They played UNC to a 3-point game the game prior, so they have played in three straight dog fights. They will run out of gas this week.
Now the Hurricanes go from underdogs to double-digit favorites against Georgia Tech this week, which is a huge overreaction. This is a letdown spot off the win over a ranked Pitt team if I've ever seen one. And it's a sandwich spot with rival Florida State on deck next week. I don't expect anything near Miami's 'A' game this week because of it.
Georgia Tech is highly motivated for a victory. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a pair of single-digit losses to Virginia and Virginia Tech the last two weeks following their bye. They still believe they can make a bowl game, and a win here Saturday would be about their only hope. They will treat this game as their 'National Championship'.
Georgia Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Miami with all three games decided by 7 points or fewer. They won outright as 18-point dogs last year, and they can do the same thing this year given the awful spot for the Hurricanes. The Yellow Jackets are better than their 3-5 record too as they are outgaining opponents by 0.4 yards per play on the season.
Miami is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. The Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home favorites. They only have one win by more than 4 points all season, and that came against FCS Central Connecticut State as a 44-point favorite. Take Georgia Tech Saturday.
|11-06-21||Wake Forest v. North Carolina -2.5||Top||55-58||Win||100||70 h 32 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Carolina -2.5
We have a 4-4 unranked North Carolina team favored over a ranked 8-0 Wake Forest team. And I think the unranked Tar Heels are favored for good reason. Remember, this team was ranked in the Top 10 coming into the season. They have failed to live up to expectations and I think it's a good time to 'buy low' on them.
They are still alive in the Coastal and won't pack it in. They should be fresh because they had a bye before losing by 10 on the road to Notre Dame last week. And they won't have a problem getting up for this unbeaten Wake Forest team off that loss to the Fighting Irish.
No question it's impressive what Wake Forest has done this season in getting to 8-0. But they have done it against the 83rd-ranked schedule in the country. UNC has faced the much tougher slate. And the Tar Heels have been at their best at home at 4-1 and outscoring opponents by 17.2 points per game.
UNC's stats show they are much better than a 4-4 team, too. They are outgaining opponents by 85 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play. Those are almost identical numbers to Wake Forest, which is outgaining teams by 74 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play. And when you factor in UNC has played the tougher schedule, I actually believe the Tar Heels are the better team here.
UNC is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. I think UNC plays its best game of the season here Saturday and it will be more than enough to cover this 2.5-point spread against this overrated Wake Forest squad. Bet North Carolina Saturday.
|11-06-21||Liberty +10 v. Ole Miss||Top||14-27||Loss||-110||47 h 28 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Liberty +10
Hugh Freeze is the former coach of Ole Miss. He will have his players ready as this is Liberty's 'National Championship' game against an SEC opponent. And the Flames come in fresh after throttling UMass 62-17 last week to improve to 7-2 with both their losses coming by 3 points each.
Ole Miss is the team in the awful spot. The Rebels will be playing for a 6th consecutive week after facing Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn with each of the last four games decided by 14 points or fewer. They were in a lot of dog fights, and now they step out of conference this week before taking on Texas A&M next week. That makes this a huge sandwich spot for them. They won't get up for Liberty at all stepping out of conference here.
Ole Miss was already missing its best receiver in Jonathan Mingo to a season-ending injury. Now they could be without both Dontario Drummond (40 receptions, 658 yards, 7 TD) and Braylen Sanders (13 receptions, 309 yards, 3 TD), who are each questionable. QB Matt Corral is expected to play but is battling an ankle injury.
Meanwhile, Liberty comes in fully healthy and ready to match this Ole Miss offense score for score. The Flames average 37.4 points per game and 444.7 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play. They give up just 17.8 points per game, 300.0 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 2.1 yards per play. Malik Willis is one of the best QB's in the country that you have never heard of. He is completing 66.7% of his passes with a 21-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for a team-high 684 yards and 9 scores.
The Flames are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Liberty is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog. The Flames are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win.
|11-06-21||Louisiana Tech +13.5 v. UAB||38-52||Loss||-105||47 h 27 m||Show|
15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisiana Tech +13.5
It's a great time to 'sell high' on UAB. The Blazers are 5-3 this season but it has come against one of the easiest schedules in the country. Their wins have come against Jacksonville State, North Texas, Tulane, FAU and Southern Miss. And they even just lost outright to Rice as a 24-point favorites while also losing by 24 to Liberty as a favorite and by 49 to Georgia.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on Louisiana Tech, which is much better than its 2-6 record would indicate. LA Tech lost by 1 to Mississippi State as a 20.5-point dog, but 2 to SMU as an 11-point dog and by 7 to NC State as an 18.5-point dog. Those three efforts showed what they were capable of, and the last three games have been the aberration.
The Bulldogs are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games, which is why it's a good 'buy low' spot. They lost 19-3 to UTEP which is already bowl eligible. They lost 16-45 to a UTSA team that is 8-0 this season. And that game was closer than the final score as the Bulldogs were only outgained by 5 yards against the Roadrunners. Then last week they outgained Old Dominion by 24 yards in their 23-20 defeat.
Three of the last four meetings in this series were decided by 6 points or less, and I expect more of the same here with this game going right down to the wire. UAB"s offense just isn't good enough to get margin. They average just 25.9 points per game and 374.5 yards per game. LA Tech can match them offensively, averaging 25.8 points per game and 383.1 yards per game. And LA Tech has an above-average defense.
LA Tech is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following an upset loss as a favorite. Skip Holtz is 8-1 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 games as a road underdog. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. UAB is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games. Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.
|11-05-21||Virginia Tech v. Boston College UNDER 47.5||Top||3-17||Win||100||52 h 41 m||Show|
20* VA Tech/Boston College ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UNDER 47.5
Boston College has been a dead nuts UNDER team since losing starting QB Phil Jurkovec early in the season. The Eagles are 4-0 UNDER in their last four games overall, combining with Clemson for 32 points, NC State for 40 points, Louisville for 42 points and Syracuse for 27 points.
This total of 47.5 is set way too high Friday night. Boston College has been held to just 10.0 points per game in its last four games. Virginia Tech's defense is elite again this season, and it will shut down the Eagles too. The Hokies allow just 22.4 points per game on the season.
The problem for the Hokies is not defense, but offense. They average just 24.0 points per game and 349.9 yards per game. Boston College does have a good defense that gives up just 20.8 points per game this season and should be able to hold the Hokies in check as well.
Both teams rely heavily on the run, which should keep the clock moving. The Hokies average 40 rushing attempts per game, while the Eagles average 38 rushing attempts per game. Both teams aren't great at stopping the run, so look for both teams to run it even more than normal in this one.
Boston College is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games coming off three straight conference losses. The UNDER is 6-2 in all Boston College games this season. The UNDER is 6-2 in all Virginia Tech games this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|11-04-21||Georgia State +12.5 v. UL-Lafayette||17-21||Win||100||28 h 47 m||Show|
15* Georgia State/Louisiana ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Georgia State +12.5
Louisiana has a way of playing to its level of competition. There was an exception last week when they beat Texas State 45-0, but the Bobcats lost their QB in that game and weren't the same after keeping it close early with him. Now the Rajin Cajuns come back overvalued off that blowout win.
Let's just look at some of their performances earlier this season. They have wins over Nicholls State by 3 as 25.5-point favorties, GA Southern by 8 as 14.5-point favorites, South Alabama by 2 as 12.5-point favorites, and Arkansas State by 1 as 18-point favorites. They have a huge game on deck against Troy and could be looking ahead to that as well.
Georgia State comes in playing its best football of the season. The Panthers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Louisiana Monroe by 34 as 16-point favorites, Texas State by 12 as 10-point favorites and Georgia Southern by 7 as 6-point favorites. They have the confidence to take give Louisiana a run for its money tonight.
The Panthers returned 19 starters from a team that took Louisiana to the wire last season in a 31-34 loss as 17-point underdogs. I think they can stay within two touchdowns in the rematch tonight. I like their run defense, which gives up 4.0 yards per carry against teams that normally average 4.6 yards per carry, so they are holding opponents to 0.6 yards per carry below their season averages. They also have a great rushing attack of their own that averages 224 yards per game and 5.0 per carry to shorten the game and control time of possession.
Louisiana is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a win. Georgia State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The Rajin' Cajuns are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. Take Georgia State Thursday.
|11-03-21||Central Michigan +10 v. Western Michigan||Top||42-30||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
20* CMU/WMU ESPNU No-Brainer on Central Michigan +10
Central Michigan just has a way of playing in close games, and I think we are getting some value with them here as double-digit underdogs to Western Michigan. The Chippewas have played eight games this season with six decided by 11 points or fewer. The only exceptions were their 28-point loss at LSU and their 45-point win over FCS Robert Morris.
I don't see how Western Michigan can be trusted to be laying double-digits here considering they have lost two of their last three games in blowout fashion outright as favorites. They lost 34-15 at Toledo as 1.5-point favorites and 20-45 at home to Ball State as 13.5-point favorites. I want no part of them as a double-digit favorite.
Central Michigan has the 29th-best offense in the country in averaging 449.5 yards per game with a tremendous balance of 288 passing yards per game and 161.5 rushing yards per game. Their offense will keep them in this game for four quarters. Western Michigan relies heavily on the run at 182.9 rushing yards per game, and Central Michigan has been good at stopping the run in giving up 139.1 rushing yards per game.
The Chippewas are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 November games. The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. Western Michigan is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a bye week. Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.
|11-02-21||Miami-OH v. Ohio +8||Top||33-35||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ohio +8
The Ohio Bobcats have been very competitive of late after a tough start to the season. They have gone just 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. All three losses came by 7 points or less to Central Michigan (by 3), Buffalo (by 1) and Kent State (by 7). If they lose this game to Miami (Ohio) then I expect it to be by 7 points or fewer as well.
The Bobcats were even in yardage against Kent State, only -53 yards against Buffalo and -92 yards against Central Michigan. Those are three teams that are on par with Miami (Ohio), which is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here. The Redhawks aren't a team that can be trusted to lay a big number like this because they have a lackluster offense.
Indeed, the Redhawks are scoring just 21.1 points per game this season. Even their defense has taken a step back this year in allowing 5.7 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.6 yards per play. Ohio averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and has been good on that side of the ball. They give up 5.9 yards per play on defense, so not far behind Miami, which also averages 5.7 yards per play on offense.
Ohio is also playing with double-revenge after losing to Ohio 24-21 and 30-28 the last two meetings, both games that went down to the wire like this one will. In fact, Miami (Ohio) hasn't beaten Ohio by more than 3 points in any of the last 14 meetings, making for a perfect 14-0 system backing the Bobcats pertaining to this 8-point spread. Bet Ohio Tuesday.
|10-30-21||Fresno State v. San Diego State OVER 44||30-20||Win||100||32 h 41 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State/SDSU OVER 44
The books have set this number too low based off of what San Diego State has been doing in recent weeks. The UNDER is 3-0 in SDSU's last three games overall. But all three games came against running teams in New Mexico (34 attempts), SJSU (42 attempts) and Air Force (48 attempts).
Fresno State will not oblige. The Bulldogs will put up some points and attack this San Diego State defense through the air, which is their biggest weakness. The Bulldogs average 35.6 points, 479.6 yards per game and 341 passing yards per game on 40 attempts per game. They will get their points, and San Diego State will be forced to try and get theirs too to keep up with them.
The Aztecs have been able to get their points this season, too, especially at home. They are scoring 31.0 points per game overall and 35.0 points per game at home. You can definitely score on this Fresno State defense, and the Aztecs should come close to their season average. They combine to average nearly 66 points per game on offense. So they can fall well short of that and still get this OVER 44 with ease.
The OVER is 8-2 in Bulldogs last 10 games following an ATS win. The OVER is 5-1 in Bulldogs last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.
|10-30-21||Louisville +7 v. NC State||Top||13-28||Loss||-116||72 h 23 m||Show|
20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville +7
I like this Louisville team a lot. They have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games with their two losses coming by a combined 4 points. And the schedule has not been easy. I cashed Louisville as a free pick in a 28-14 win over Boston College last week.
They dominated that game and won by 14 despite committing four turnovers. They outgained Boston College by 172 yards. They have been competitive in every game outside of the opener against Ole Miss. And it turns out Ole Miss is one of the best teams in the country.
NC State could easily suffer a hangover from that 1-point loss to Miami last week. Louisville has an elite offense that can keep them in this game for four quarters. QB Malik Cunningham has thrown for 1,684 yards and eight touchdowns, while also rushing for 480 yards and being tied for the national league in rushing touchdowns (13). His dual-threat ability will be a handful for this NC State defense.
NC State is 0-10 ATS against good offensive teams that average at least 425 yards per game over the last three seasons. Take Louisville Saturday.
|10-30-21||Kansas +30.5 v. Oklahoma State||Top||3-55||Loss||-110||28 h 17 m||Show|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas +30.5
Oklahoma State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Their offense just isn't up to par compared to years' past for the Cowboys. And that's why despite being 6-1 they haven't won a single game by more than 11 points this season, and that includes their 23-16 win over Missouri State. They should not be laying 30.5 points to Kansas with that offense this week.
Kansas nearly upset Oklahoma last week. The Jayhawks got screwed by the refs as they stopped the Sooners on 4th and 1 down 5 with a chance to get the ball back and win the game. But the refs didn't rule forward progress stopped, and a fluky handoff from the RB back to the QB got the Sooners the first down.
Kansas is going to keep battling under first-year head coach Lance Leipold, who was one of the sneakiest coaching hires in the offseason. They continue to improve and have found their quarterback. Jason Bean completed 17-of-23 passes for 246 yards, while also rushing for 59 yards in the 23-35 loss to Oklahoma last week. He'll be able to make enough plays against this Oklahoma State defense to keep the Jayhawks within four touchdowns.
Oklahoma State opened 6-0 but then suffered that dream crushing loss to Iowa State on the road last week. Their chances of making the four-team playoff is basically out the door now, and I expect them to suffer a 'hangover' here against Kansas. They probably feel like they can just show up and win this game, and they'll just be going through the motions in practice all week. It will carry over into a flat effort Saturday.
The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after winning four or five of their last six games. Plays on underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (Kansas) - after four ore more consecutive losses in Weeks 5 through 9 are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with Kansas Saturday.
|10-30-21||Florida State +9.5 v. Clemson||20-30||Loss||-110||25 h 47 m||Show|
15* FSU/Clemson ACC ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +9.5
The Florida State Seminoles have turned around their season by going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall. The 35-25 win at North Carolina as 17.5-point dogs showed their potential. And they basically had a bye last week, beating UMass 59-3 which allowed them to empty their bench and keep players fresh for this week's showdown with Clemson.
Clemson has been the biggest money burner in college football. They are good by name only, not by the product they put on the field. Clemson is 4-3 SU & 0-7 ATS this season. Their offense is broken, scoring 21 or fewer points in six of their seven games this season. The only exception was against FCS South Carolina State. Their lackluster offense is going to make it tough to beat Florida State by double-digits.
Don't be surprised to see Clemson just go through the motions the rest of the way. They already have three losses overall and two losses within the conference, so they won't be going to the four-team playoff and likely don't even have a chance to win the ACC. And I don't think they care much about it, either.
This is Florida State's 'Super Bowl'. The Seminoles will be highly motivated to end a five-game losing streak to Clemson in this head-to-head series, and this is their best chance in years to put an end to it. The Tigers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Plays on any team (Florida State) - an excellent rushing team that averages at least 4.8 yards per carry against a team that rushes for 4.3 to 4.8 yards per carry after 7-plus games, after outrushing their last opponent by 200 or more yards are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet Florida State Saturday.
|10-30-21||Boston College +6.5 v. Syracuse||6-21||Loss||-105||25 h 41 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston College +6.5
It's time to 'sell high' on Syracuse. The Orange are coming off an upset win at Virginia Tech to improve to 4-4 SU & 7-1 ATS this season. Now they come back as 6.5-point favorites against Boston College this week after being underdogs in seven of their eight games this season with the lone exception being against FCS Albany.
In fact, Syracuse is now favored for the first time over an FBS opponent in two years. Not only are they favored, they would have to win this game by 7-plus points to beat us to get the cover. Their offense just isn't good enough to get margin. Each of their last five games were decided by 5 points or fewer either way.
It's a great time to 'buy low' on Boston College coming off three straight losses against three very good teams in Louisville, NC State and Clemson. They beat Missouri the game prior. They did have a bye three weeks ago so they are still fresh. And Syracuse if the tired team here playing for a 9th consecutive week to start the season. That's a huge factor in this game.
Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series. The road team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Eagles are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as road underdogs. Syracuse is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a win. Take Boston College Saturday.
|10-30-21||Rutgers -1.5 v. Illinois||Top||20-14||Win||100||70 h 37 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers -1.5
Rutgers wore down playing seven straight weeks to start the season and a gauntlet of a Big Ten schedule. They went 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS to open Big Ten play before having their bye last week. Now they come back refreshed and ready to try and make a bowl game by getting three more wins the rest the way.
They are primed for one of their biggest efforts of the season and take a big step down in class here against Illinois. It's a massive letdown spot for the Fighting Illini. They are coming off that crazy 9-OT road win at Penn State last week as 24.5-point dogs. I expect them to still be tired and to fall flat on their faces at home this week against Rutgers.
It's a great matchup for the Scarlet Knights. Illinois averages 184 rushing yards per game but just 139 passing. Rutgers has been great against the run. They give up just 4.0 yards per carry against teams that normally average 5.1 yards per carry. So they are holding their opponents to 1.1 yards per carry below their season average.
Illinois is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games with a total of 42 or less. The Scarlet Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Rutgers is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Rutgers Saturday.
|10-30-21||Miami-FL +9.5 v. Pittsburgh||38-34||Win||100||21 h 12 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami +9.5
Miami has some momentum after a season-saving win in a 31-30 upset victory over a very good NC State team last week. Freshman QB Tyler Van Dyke got huge praise from head coach Manny Diaz after the game, and rightfully so. He completed 25-of-33 passes for 325 yards and four touchdowns against a great NC State defense.
Now the Hurricanes have their sights set on Pittsburgh, a team that is coming off one of the biggest wins in program history in a 27-17 victory over Clemson last week. But that was a big win in name only as Clemson is way down this season. And I look for the Panthers to suffer a letodwn this week, and it's a great time to 'sell high' on them after their 6-1 ATS start.
Miami has simply owned Pitt, going 17-3 SU in the last 20 meetings. The Panthers always seem to struggle with their athletes and will again in this matchup. Miami only lost by 2 to Virginia and by 3 to UNC in its two games prior to the win over NC State, so they have been playing well for weeks but just coming up short. This game is likely to be decided by one score, too.
The Hurricanes are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games off an upset win as an underdog, including 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games off an upset win over a conference opponent. Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as road underdogs. Pittsburgh is 10-22-1 ATS in its last 33 games as a home favorite. Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet Miami Saturday.
|10-30-21||Iowa +3.5 v. Wisconsin||7-27||Loss||-116||21 h 12 m||Show|
15* Iowa/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa +3.5
The Wisconsin Badgers are a tired team right now playing for a 6th consecutive week with their last five games coming against Notre Dame, Michigan, Illinois, Army and Purdue. Now they have to face a physical Iowa team and it's a tough spot for them because of it.
Meanwhile, Iowa is fresh and prepared coming off its bye week following its first loss of the season against Purdue. The bye couldn't have come at a better time because it gives the Hawkeyes time to get healthy after playing seven straight weeks to start the season. It also makes it much easier to get over that 'dream crusher' type of loss to the Boilermakers. They can get back to focusing on just winning the West and beating Wisconsin here.
Iowa doesn't make mistakes, and Wisconsin does. The Badgers have committed 17 turnovers this season. Iowa has forced 21 turnovers. At some point, turnovers aren't luck with certain teams, and Iowa is a team you can trust every year to win the turnover battle more times than not. Wisconsin's Graham Mertz is awful and cannot be trusted to take care of the ball as he's shown time and time again this year.
This is a rare case where a Top 10 team is an underdog to an unranked team. Well, the last 10 times this has happened, the Top 10 underdog has gone 9-1 ATS. So I think we are definitely getting value here on the Hawkeyes at +3.5, especially in a game that could easily be decided by a field goal with the lowest total of the season at 36 points. This has 20-17 written all over it.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Iowa) - in conference games off an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite are 51-19 (72.9%) ATS since 1992. Kirk Ferentz is 8-0 ATS in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse as the coach of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa Saturday.
|10-30-21||Texas State +21 v. UL-Lafayette||0-45||Loss||-110||21 h 12 m||Show|
15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas State +21
It's time to 'sell high' on Louisiana-Lafayette after six straight victories. They just play to their level of competition. They have wins over Nicholls State by 3 as 25.5-point favorties, GA Southern by 8 as 14.5-point favorites, South Alabama by 2 as 12.5-point favorites, and Arkansas State by 1 as 18-point favorites.
Texas State is more than capable of staying within three touchdowns of Louisiana and likely taking this game down to the wire. The Bobcats are just 2-5 this season but four of those losses came by 12 points or less. That includes their 9-point loss to Baylor, which looks like a very good loss at this point.
Texas State has a decent up-tempo offense that will put up enough points to stay within the number. And this is the best Bobcats defense they have had in recent memory. They allow a respectable 422 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play against teams that normally average 5.9 yards per play, so it's at least an average defense this year.
Louisiana had a great team last year and only beat Texas State 44-34 as a 16.5-point favorite. Now they come back as 21-point favorites in the rematch, which is too much. Lafayette is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following six or more consecutive wins. The Bobcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Texas State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards last game. Louisiana is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite. Roll with Texas State Saturday.
|10-29-21||UNLV +20 v. Nevada||Top||20-51||Loss||-108||12 h 8 m||Show|
20* UNLV/Nevada MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +20
UNLV is way undervalued right now due to its 0-7 record. But this team has come close to winning several times with five losses by one score. They could easily have a winning record right now. But because of that record, we are catching 20 points with them in this rivalry game with Nevada.
This game means a lot more to UNLV than it does to Nevada this year. The Wolf Pack are coming off a 32-34 loss to Fresno State that could easily cost them the conference title. They will suffer a hangover from that defeat. UNLV also played Fresno tough, only losing 30-38 on the road.
I like the spot for the Rebels. This is their 'Super Bowl'. They are also the fresher team and come in on seven days' rest after playing last Thursday. Nevada only comes in on five days' rest after playing Fresno late Saturday night.
UNLV is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game. Each of the last four meetings were decided by 18 points or less, including three by one score. The Rebels are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs. The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Bet UNLV Friday.
|10-28-21||Troy +17 v. Coastal Carolina||Top||28-35||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
20* Troy/Coastal Carolina ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Troy +17
Coastal Carolina just suffered the type of dream crushing loss that could wreck their season, at least for a week. They had dreams of making a New Year's 6 Bowl likely taken away from them with their 27-30 road loss at Appalachian State last week.
That game wasn't even as close as the final score as they were outgained by 229 yards and gave up 575 total yards to the Mountaineers. Now they have to come back a week later and try and get back up off the mat to face Troy. I don't think they will be fully focused, and I think there will be a hangover effect from that defeat.
Troy is 4-3 this season and has been competitive in every game with its largest loss coming by 13 points. That includes an 8-point loss to Liberty, which is a team on Coastal Carolina's level. I think the Trojans can stay within this big number just as they did last season.
The Trojans will be playing with double-revenge after losing 35-36 to Coastal Carolina in 2019 and 38-42 as 12-point dogs last year, two losses by a combined 5 points. Troy also has the benefit of coming off a bye week with their last game coming two Saturday's ago. So they have had nearly two full weeks to rest and prepare for the Chanticleers.
The forecast is going to help us here, too. There is nearly a 100% chance of rain Thursday night with winds gusting between 20-30 MPH. That's going to make both teams have to run the football. And Troy has been elite at stopping the run. They only give up 95 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry this season. Coastal gives up 144 rushing yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. Points will be hard to come by, which favors the big dog here.
Troy is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams who force 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game. Bet Troy Thursday.
|10-24-21||New Mexico State +18 v. Hawaii||34-48||Win||100||32 h 43 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico State +18
The New Mexico State Aggies have been covering machines. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and still somehow flying under the radar. Their only non-cover came in a 21-41 home loss to this same Hawaii team as 16.5-point dogs.
Now the Aggies are catching 18 points in the rematch and will be out for revenge. There's reason to believe they can keep this close and possibly pull off the upset. The Aggies actually gained 401 yards in that 21-41 loss and were only outgained by 91 yards. They have been outgained by 91 or fewer yards in five of their last six games overall despite playing some tough competition like Nevada, Hawaii, SJSU and San Diego State, which they actually outgained.
Hawaii is 3-4 this season with its three wins coming against New Mexico State by 20, Portland State by 14 and Fresno State by 3. The Rainbow Warriors lost by 34 to UCLA, by 18 to Oregon State, by 7 to SJSU and by 17 to Nevada.
The Aggies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. New Mexico State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Mountain West opponents. The Rainbow Warriors are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games as home favorites. Hawaii is 16-37 ATS in its last 53 vs. a team with a losing record. The Rainbow Warriors are 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 home games. Roll with New Mexico State Saturday.
|10-23-21||Tennessee v. Alabama -25||24-52||Win||100||27 h 47 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Alabama -25
The Alabama Crimson Tide need style points now after losing to Texas A&M. They just beat Mississippi State 49-9 on the road last week. That's why I'm willing to lay the -25 with them this week as they host the Tennessee Volunteers. There's also another key reason I'm willing to lay it.
Tennessee is a very tired team. They will be playing for an 8th consecutive week. They just had to face 101 plays against Ole Miss' high-powered offense last week. They gave up 510 yards to the Rebels. Now Alabama will score at will against their tired, banged up defense.
The Crimson Tide are putting up 45.0 points per game this season. If they get to their season average like I think they will, they are going to cover this number. I don't see Tennessee getting to 20 points. They still don't know if starting QB Hendon Hooker is going to play, and I don't think it matters much. But if they have to go to backup Joe Milton it's going to get real ugly and would be a bonus for us.
The Volunteers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Crimson Tide are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games. Alabama is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings winning by 31, 22, 37, 38 and 39 points. Take Alabama Saturday.
|10-23-21||UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5||45-16||Loss||-110||27 h 47 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana Tech +6.5
This is a great time to 'sell high' on the UTSA Roadrunners. They have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS this season to make backers a lot of money. But it has come against the 131st-ranked schedule in the country.
Louisiana Tech has played the 78th-ranked schedule. It's a great time to 'buy low' on them after their 2-4 start and coming off an ugly 19-3 loss to UTEP. But they could easily be 4-2 instead of 2-4. They only lost by 1 to Mississippi State as 20.5-point dogs. They lost on a hail mary to SMU by 2 as 11-point dogs. And they only lost by 7 at NC State as 18.5-point dogs.
Those three teams are all better than anything UTSA has faced. The seven wins have come against the likes of Illinois, Lamar, Middle Tennessee, Memphis, UNLV, WKU and Rice. And keep in mind four of those wins came by one score, so they are very fortunate to be 7-0.
Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Louisiana Tech) - after going under the total by more than 21 points in their previous game in the second half of the season are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. LA Tech is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games following an upset loss as a favorite. The Bulldogs are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS loss. Take Louisiana Tech Saturday.
|10-23-21||Oregon v. UCLA -1||Top||34-31||Loss||-109||23 h 18 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on UCLA -1
The UCLA Bruins are 5-2 this season with their only losses coming to Fresno State and Arizona State. Four of their five wins have come by double-digits. I think they are the better team here than Oregon and should be more than a 1-point home favorite.
The Bruins have some great numbers. They are averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense against teams that normally only allow 5.4 yards per play. They are giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense against teams that normally allow 5.8 yards per play. Their improvement on defense has been a big reason they are so good this year, and they boast an offense that rushes for 220 yards per game and 5.0 per carry.
Oregon has gotten too much respect ever since its upset win at Ohio State. The Ducks are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. The Ducks were actually outgained by 42 yards by awful Arizona and were fortunate to win that game forcing five turnovers. They were upset at 8.5-point favorites at Stanford. And they only beat Cal by 7 as 13.5-point favorites. They are missing their best RB in CJ Verdell, and QB Anthony Brown is not as good as advertised.
The Bruins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after gaining more than 200 rushing yards in their previous game. The Ducks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win. Oregon is 1-6 ATS in its last seven conference games. Finally, UCLA wants revenge from a tough 35-38 road loss to Oregon last year. Bet UCLA Saturday.
|10-23-21||Northwestern +24 v. Michigan||Top||7-33||Loss||-115||70 h 58 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +24
Northwestern always seems to get better as the season goes along under Pat Fitzgerald. There have been numerous instances where they got off to a slow start and rallied in the Big Ten schedule. And that appears to be the case again this season.
After a 2-3 start, Northwestern came back from its bye a different team last week. The Wildcats beat Rutgers 21-7, outgaining the Scarlet Knights by 180 yards. They held them to just 222 total yards and have a good defense. That defense should carry them to a cover here against Michigan in what I expect to be an ugly-low-scoring Big Ten game.
Michigan is overvalued due to its 6-0 start and #6 National Ranking. Yes, the Wolverines are coming off their bye week, but some bye weeks are better than others. They had momentum and now that momentum is gone with this bye week.
They were probably feeling fat and happy over the last 2 weeks instead of hungry due to their 6-0 record and Top 10 ranking. I expect them to be flat against Northwestern Saturday. Even if they're not, it's going to take a perfect game for them to cover this 24-point spread, and I'm willing to bet against it.
The Wildcats are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 road games. Northwestern is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 games as a road underdog. The Wolverines are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week. Bet Northwestern Saturday.
|10-22-21||Memphis -2 v. Central Florida||Top||7-24||Loss||-110||10 h 16 m||Show|
20* Memphis/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Memphis -2
The UCF Knights are an absolute mess since losing QB Dillon Gabriel. They have gone 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Even in their lone win during this stretch they beat a bad ECU team 20-16 at home and were outgained in the game.
The Knights also lost by 35 at Cincinnati last week. They were upset by Navy as 14.5-point favorites and outgained by 80 yards by the Midshipmen. They were also outgained by 81 yards in their loss to Louisville.
Memphis has some impressive showings coming into this one. They deserved to beat Tulsa on the road but lost despite gaining 614 yards and outgaining the Golden Hurricane by 198 yards. They beat Navy by 18 last time out and outgained them by 174 yards, the same Navy team that upset UCF and outgained them by 80 yards.
The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Friday games. The Knights are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games overall. UCF is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a loss. The Knights are 0-7 ATS after playing their last game on the road. Bet Memphis Friday.
|10-21-21||Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte +7||Top||38-9||Loss||-110||10 h 57 m||Show|
20* College Football Thursday No-Brainer on Charlotte +7
The Charlotte 49ers are 4-2 this season with their only losses both coming on the road to Georgia State and Illinois. They beat Duke at home and are 3-0 at home while outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game. I like the value we are getting with the 49ers as 7-point home dogs to Florida Atlantic here.
FAU is 3-3 this season with all three wins coming at home against weak competition in Georgia Southern, Fordham and Florida International. The Owls are 0-3 on the road and losing by 20.6 points per game. They are only scoring 11.7 points per game on the highway.
Last year FAU beat Charlotte 21-17 at home despite getting outgained 396 to 315, or by 81 yards. I like the 49ers' chances of getting revenge here with the outright upset, but there's certainly value in taking the 7 points.
The 49ers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games. The Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet Charlotte Thursday.
|10-20-21||Coastal Carolina -4 v. Appalachian State||Top||27-30||Loss||-110||31 h 29 m||Show|
20* Coastal Carolina/Appalachian State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Coastal Carolina -4
Coastal Carolina is even better than they were last year, which is saying something. They returned basically everyone with 19 starters back and their talent has shown with a 6-0 start this season that has seen them win those six games by an average of 33.8 points per game.
The Chanticleers boast an offense that is putting up 48.8 points per game and 552.3 yards per game. Grayson McCall is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He is completing 79.8% of his passes for 1,478 yards with a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for two scores. Coastal Carolina's defense only gives up 15.0 points per game and 281.8 yards per game.
Appalachian State is finally down a little this season. The Mountaineers are 4-2 and were fortunate to come from behind to beat Marshall. They hung tough against an overrated Miami team. But their 13-41 loss last week to Louisiana-Lafayette was a disaster. They turned the ball over four times and have had at least one turnover in all six games. They were held to 211 yards and outgained by 244 yards by the Rajin' Cajuns.
Coastal Carolina beat Appalachian State 34-23 at home last year. And this Coastal Carolina team is better than last year's version, while the Mountaineers aren't as good as they were last year. The Mountaineers have three running backs on the injury report, which is putting a lot of pressure on QB Chase Brice to make plays. He has an 8-to-5 TD/INT ratio on the season. I'll take McCall over Brice all day.
The scheduling spot favors the Chanticleers, too. They are coming off their bye week, so they have had two full weeks to get ready for Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are basically on normal rest after losing to Louisiana-Lafayette last Tuesday.
Coastal Carolina is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games overall. The Chanticleers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Coastal Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games. Appalachian State is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Mountaineers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Appalachian State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine conference games. Bet Coastal Carolina Wednesday.
|10-16-21||Arizona State v. Utah +1||Top||21-35||Win||100||71 h 41 m||Show|
20* Arizona State/Utah ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +1
The Utah Utes are in a great spot this week against Arizona State. They had a bye prior to beating USC 42-26 on the road in upset fashion last week. So they are still fresh and ready to go here with Arizona State coming to Salt Lake City in a game that may very well decide the Pac-12 South.
The Utes have been better off since QB Charlie Brewers left the team. The distraction is gone, and that showed in that performance against USC last week. And Utah is one of the toughest places to play in the country, especially in a night game with kickoff set for 10:00 EST.
Arizona State is getting too much respect now after three straight wins and covers against Colorado, UCLA and Stanford. No question this is a good Arizona State team, but they are not better than Utah, and this line would indicate that they are. Home-field advantage isn't being factored into this line enough with the Utes being underdogs. And fatigue for ASU isn't being factored in enough as they will be playing for a 7th consecutive week here.
The Utes are 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 games as underdogs. The Sun Devils are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as favorites. Utah is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a conference win. The Utes always get better as the season goes along under Kyle Whittingham. Bet Utah Saturday.
|10-16-21||UCLA v. Washington UNDER 55.5||24-17||Win||100||57 h 55 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UCLA/Washington UNDER 55.5
Washington is a dead nuts UNDER team this season. They are 4-1 UNDER in their five games this year. They have a terrible offense that averages just 24.8 points per game, 375.2 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.
But the Huskies always have a great defense, and that is the case again this season. They are holding opponents to 19.6 points per game, 326.8 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play. They are holding opponents to 8.3 points per game, 55 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages.
UCLA's offense is run-first as they average 45 rushing attempts compared to 24 passing attempts. That should held keep the clock moving. Dorian-Thompson Robinson is an inaccurate quarterback who is better with his legs than he is with his arm. I just really see points hard to come by in this one. UCLA's defense is above average as they give up 5.7 yards per play against teams that average 6.0 yards per play.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Bruins last four vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 16-6 in Huskies last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Huskies last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Huskies last four games following a loss. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|10-16-21||Purdue +12 v. Iowa||Top||24-7||Win||100||89 h 28 m||Show|
25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue +12
The Purdue Boilermakers have had two weeks to get ready for the Iowa Hawkeyes. They had a bye last week following their loss to Minnesota. They have been competitive in every game this season, and they always play Iowa tough.
Indeed, the Boilermakers are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Hawkeyes. All four meetings were decided by 9 points or less, including the 6-point loss they suffered in their only defeat as 17.5-point dogs. They pulled two outright upsets and covered as 1.5-point favorites.
Iowa is in a huge letdown spot after its 23-20 win over Penn State last week. The Hawkeyes never would have won that game if Penn State starting QB Sean Clifford didn't get injured. They blew a 17-3 lead. Backup Tre'Quan Roberson was awful in his place, throwing for just 34 yards on 21 attempts with two interceptions.
The Boilermakers are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs. Purdue is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. Jeff Brohm is 15-6 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Purdue. Brohm is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. excellent teams that outscore their opponents by 17-plus points per game as a head coach. Bet Purdue Saturday.
|10-16-21||Ball State -1 v. Eastern Michigan||Top||38-31||Win||100||63 h 41 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State -1
Ball State won the MAC last year and brought back 20 starters including the best QB in the MAC in Drew Plitt. So it was surprising to see them start 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS this season. But that start has had them undervalued since, and they remain undervalued here as only 1-point favorites against one of the worst teams in the MAC in Eastern Michigan.
Two weeks ago Ball State upset a very good Army team 28-16 as 10.5-point underdogs. Last week Ball State went on the road and crushed Western Michigan 45-20 as 12.5-point dogs. And now they are right back in the MAC title race and won't be overlooking Eastern Michigan here. Look for them to keep their momentum rolling.
Eastern Michigan is overvalued right now due to a 4-2 start with its four wins all coming against suspect competition in St. Francis PA, UMass, Texas State and Miami (Ohio). The losses came to Wisconsin by 27 and Northern Illinois by 7. They were outgained by 128 yards last time out and were fortunate to beat Miami Ohio 13-12. They were outgained by 426 yards by Wisconsin, and by 12 yards against UMass.
The Cardinals have played the much tougher schedule between these teams as well. Ball State is 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons. Eastern Michigan is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 games off a home win. The Cardinals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record, including 7-0 ATS vs. teams with winning records over the last two seasons. Take Ball State Saturday.
|10-16-21||Tulsa v. South Florida +8.5||32-31||Win||100||48 h 25 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on South Florida +8.5
South Florida has played a brutal schedule early and is better than its 1-4 record would indicate. The four losses came to NC State, Florida, BYU and SMU which are four teams ranked inside the Top 25. Three losses came on the road, and the last two against BYU and SMU were competitive late in the 2nd half.
Now South Florida comes off its bye week fresh and ready to get that first AAC victory Saturday against Tulsa. The Bulls have found their quarterback in Timmy Mcclain, who is completing 58.7% of his passes and averaging 8 yards per attempt. He has also rushed for 158 yards as a dual threat.
Tulsa is 2-4 this season with its only wins both coming at home over Arkansas State by 7 and Memphis by 6. So the Golden Hurricane haven't won a game by more than 7 points this season. Now they are a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week after a fortunate 35-29 shootout win over Memphis last week. They gave up 614 total yards to Memphis and were outgained by 198 yards, but were +3 in turnovers to save the day.
The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. South Florida is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing more than 40 points last game. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS off an ATS loss over the last two seasons. This is a great spot for the Bulls and they are live underdogs in this one. Roll with South Florida Saturday.
|10-15-21||Marshall v. North Texas OVER 66||Top||49-21||Win||100||45 h 36 m||Show|
20* College Football TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Marshall/North Texas OVER 66
This game between Marshall and North Texas has all the makings of a shootout Friday night. These are two of the fastest-paced teams in the country as North Texas averages 82 plays per game while Marshall averages 77 plays per game.
Marshall has been impressive on offense this season in averaging 34.8 points and 515.2 yards per game to go along with 6.7 yards per play. North Texas doesn't have great season-long numbers offensively, but they just scored 35 points against an SEC opponent in Missouri and gave up 48. Their defense has been atrocious in allowing 32.2 points per game on the season. Marshall gave up 42 to ECU, 31 to App State and 34 to Middle Tennessee in three of its last four games coming in.
The OVER is 15-6 in Thundering Herd last 21 games following an ATS loss. The OVER is 5-1 in Marshall's last six games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The OVER is 4-1 in Mean Green last five games as home underdogs. The OVER is 5-1 in North Texas' last six games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|10-14-21||Navy +10.5 v. Memphis||Top||17-35||Loss||-100||21 h 6 m||Show|
20* Navy/Memphis ESPN No-Brainer on Navy +10.5
The Navy Midshipmen are improving rapidly this season. After blowout losses to Marshall and Air Force to start the season, they have since gone 3-0 ATS with three straight games against very good competition decided by 8 points or less.
They lost by 8 at Houston as 20-point dogs, beat UCF outright by 4 as 14.5-point dogs and only lost by 7 to SMU as 13.5-point home dogs. Now they are catching double-digits against a Memphis squad that is worse than all three of those teams.
Memphis is 3-3 this season with two of its wins coming by 5 and 2 points over Arkansas State and Mississippi State, respectively. Their only blowout win came against FCS Nicholls State 42-17 in the opener. They have lost three straight games with upset losses to UTSA and Temple, as well as a road loss to Tulsa as a 3-point dog.
Memphis gave up 235 rushing yards to Tulsa, 157 to Temple and 205 to UTSA in each of its last three losses. It isn't going to get any easier here against Navy, which will test their run defense. The Midshipmen are averaging 220 rushing yards per game this season.
This Navy defense has been impressive, too. The Midshipmen are holding opponents to 361 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play against teams that normally average 460 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. So they are holding opponents to nearly 100 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play below their season averages.
Navy is the fresher team having played just five games while Memphis has played six games. While the Midshipmen had a bye week prior to Week 4, the Tigers have not had a bye week. They will be playing for a 7th consecutive week here and on a short week at that with this game behind played on a Thursday. Navy's physicality will takes its toll and wear out Memphis on both sides of the football.
Navy is 63-29 ATS in its last 92 games as a road underdog. The Midshipmen are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 450 or more yards per game. Ryan Silverfield is 2-9 ATS when playing with 6 or less days' rest as the coach of Memphis. Sliverfield is 0-6 ATS after gaining 475 or more yards per game in the last three games as the coach of the Tigers. Memphis is 1-7 ATS in its last eight conference games. The Midshipmen are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Memphis is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite against FBS competition. Take Navy Thursday.
|10-12-21||Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 57||Top||13-41||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
20* Appalachian State/Louisiana ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UNDER 57
Appalachian State and Louisiana are very familiar with one another. They seem to play in the Sun Belt Championship every year. In fact, they have met in the title game in four consecutive seasons now, sometimes playing each other twice. They have played five times in the past three seasons alone.
That familiarity definitely favors defenses and low-scoring games. That has been the case in this series with the exception of one game. Louisiana and Appalachian State have combined for 49 or fewer points in four of their five meetings over the last three seasons. They have combined for 51 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.
Louisiana is 4-1 UNDER this season with combined scores of 56 or fewer points in four of their five games. Appalachian State has seen 54 or fewer combined points in three of their five games this season. And both teams have very good defenses, especially Appalachian State.
Appalachian State is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 road games after a cover as a double-digit favorite. The UNDER is 10-1 in Louisiana's last 11 home games. The UNDER is 8-0 in Louisiana's last eight home games vs. conference opponents. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|10-09-21||New Mexico State +30.5 v. Nevada||Top||28-55||Win||100||55 h 38 m||Show|
20* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico State +30.5
Nevada is in a big letdown spot this week. They are coming off an upset win over Boise State on the road last week. But they were coming off a bye, so that was a good spot for them. And the Broncos already have three losses this season and are nowhere near the program they used to be.
Now Nevada steps outside the conference to take on lowly New Mexico State. The Wolf Pack probably feel like they just have to show up to win this game. But the Aggies have been feisty since a bad loss to UTEP to open the season. And they should be 'all in' here knowing they have a bye on deck to rest next week.
New Mexico State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and has been competitive in every game, not once losing by more than 20 points. They lost by 18 at San Diego State as 31.5-point dogs and actually outgained the Aztecs by 11 yards. They lost by 9 to New Mexico as 19.5-point dogs. They beat South Carolina State 43-35. They lost by 20 as 17-point dogs at Hawaii. And last week was their most impressive performance yet, losing by just 6 at San Jose State as 26-point dogs.
The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. New Mexico State is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Mountain West opponents. Nevada is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game. Take New Mexico State Saturday.
|10-09-21||Penn State v. Iowa -1||20-23||Win||100||48 h 13 m||Show|
15* Penn State/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa -1
The Iowa Hawkeyes aren't getting the respect they deserve again this week as only 1-point home favorites over Penn State. They are the better football team, they are at home, and it will be the toughest atmosphere of the season that the Nittany Lions have faced yet.
Penn State has been doing all of its damage at home. The Nittany Lions have played four straight home games since their 16-10 win at Wisconsin in the opener. And it turns out Wisconsin isn't very good. And the Nittany Lions were outgained by 62 yards by the Badgers in that game and very fortunate to win with their red zone INT's.
Iowa is 11-0 in its last 11 games overall with 10 wins by double-digits. Maybe this team will finally get the respect they deserve after beating Penn State on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 road games after allowing 9 points or less last game.
Plays on home teams (Iowa) - after three or more consecutive wins against an opponent that is coming off five or more consecutive wins are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Iowa is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games as a favorite of 4 points or fewer. James Franklin is 0-9 SU in true road games against Top 10 teams as a head coach. Bet Iowa Saturday.
|10-09-21||San Jose State v. Colorado State -2.5||Top||14-32||Win||100||48 h 13 m||Show|
20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado State -2.5
The Colorado State Rams have been a completely different team in their last two games. They went on the road and upset Toledo 22-6 as 14.5-point underdogs. And they gave Iowa their toughest test of the season in a 14-24 road loss at 24-point dogs.
Now the Rams had last week off and have had two weeks to prepare for San Jose State. They faced a Spartans team that has been extremely disappointing this season. They lost by 23 at USC, failed to cover in a 4-point win at Hawaii, lost by 20 at Western Michigan, and only beat New Mexico State by 6 last week as 25.5-point favorites.
San Jose State could get QB Nick Starkel back this week as he is listed as questionable. But I like Colorado State either way in this spot. The Spartans are overvalued this season after winning the Mountain West last year and should continue to be great fade material all season.
The Spartans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing record. San Jose State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall. Colorado State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Colorado State Saturday.
|10-09-21||Georgia v. Auburn +15.5||34-10||Loss||-107||48 h 13 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Auburn +15.5
The stock couldn't be higher on Georgia right now after a 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season. It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs now that they will be playing their toughest test of the season on the road at Auburn this week.
Georgia has beaten up on teams at home with wins over UAB, South Carolina and Arkansas. Their only true road win came at Vanderbilt. So this will be by far their stiffest test of the season against an Auburn team that is 3-0 at home and winning by 40.7 points per game.
Auburn went on the road and nearly upset Penn State, another team that is currently ranked in the Top 5. So the Tigers have proven they can hang with the big boys. And they should not be more than two-touchdown underdogs to Georgia this week.
Auburn's defense is good enough to keep this game close. The Tigers are only giving up 16.2 points and 298.4 yards per game. Georgia's offense is good, but it's not good enough to hang a big number on this Auburn defense, which is what it's going to take to cover this big of a number.
Auburn is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. very good defensive teams that give up 14 points per game or fewer. The Tigers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games. Auburn is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog. The home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Roll with Auburn Saturday.
|10-09-21||Virginia v. Louisville -2.5||34-33||Loss||-110||48 h 43 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Louisville -2.5
The Louisville Cardinals have only lost to 2 of the best teams in the country in Ole Miss and Wake Forest. And both of those losses came on the road. They have been great at home with a 27-point win over Eastern Kentucky and an upset of UCF, while also upsetting Florida State on the road.
After two straight road game, the Cardinals are back home here Saturday hosting Virginia. Their offense is hitting on all cylinders with 501 yards against UCF and 522 yards against Wake Forest. They should torch a shaky Virginia defense that gave up 699 yards in a 39-59 loss at North Carolina and 473 more yards in a 17-37 home loss to Wake Forest to give them a common opponent with Louisville only losing 34-37 at Wake Forest.
I think Virginia is getting too much respect for its 30-28 upset win at Miami last time out. But the Hurricanes were without starting QB D'Eriq King in that game, so you have to take it with a grain of salt. This is going to be a much stiffer test for them against Malik Cunningham, who is completing 63.8% of his passes for 1,307 yards with a 7-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 309 yards and 10 scores.
Virginia is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 450 or more yards in two consecutive games. The Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Plays against all teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Virginia) - with a poor turnover defense forcing one or fewer turnovers per game, after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 40-13 (75.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Louisville Saturday.
|10-09-21||Akron +15 v. Bowling Green||Top||35-20||Win||100||71 h 13 m||Show|
20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Akron +15
It's time to 'sell high' on the Bowling Green Falcons. They are 5-0 ATS this season and the last remaining unbeaten team ATS. Now they are being asked to lay 15 points to Akron just a couple weeks after being a 1-point favorite over FCS Murray State. They are clearly overvalued right now.
Everyone knows about Bowling Green's upset win over Minnesota as a 30.5-point underdog. So they automatically assume this team is good. But they also lost to South Alabama and Kent State, and lost to Tennessee by 32. Their only other win came against Murray State at home.
We'll 'buy low' on Akron, which is just 1-4 ATS this season and the betting public wants nothing to do with them. Two of the losses came to Auburn and Ohio State. And they deserved to cover against the Buckeyes. They beat Bryant by 21 and lost to Temple by 21 and Ohio by 17. They can definitely stay within two touchdowns of Bowling Green this week.
Akron has found its quarterback. Demarcus Irons Jr. took over for Kato Nelson three games back and has given the offense life. He is completing 69.1% of his passes with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio. But his dual-threat ability is what has been impressive. Irons has rushed for 251 yards and two scores as well.
Akron's problem defensively is stopping the run, but they face a Bowling Green team that can't run the football. The Falcons are only averaging 47 rushing yards per game and 1.7 per carry. Their offense is only averaging 277 yards per game overall and 4.4 yards per play. It's tough to trust them to cover this big of a number with that type of offense.
The Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit home loss. The Falcons are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games. Bowling Green is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite. I think home-field advantage is being factored into this line too much as well as the Falcons won't have a big crowd for this early 12:00 EST start. Bet Akron Saturday.
|10-09-21||Oklahoma v. Texas +3.5||55-48||Loss||-113||45 h 43 m||Show|
15* Oklahoma/Texas Big 12 Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas +3.5
The Oklahoma Sooners are fortunate to be 5-0 this season despite playing an easy schedule. They have four wins by one score over Tulane (40-35), Nebraska (23-16), West Virginia (16-13) and Kansas State (37-31). They only outgained Tulane by 40 yards, Nebraska by 24 yards, WVU by 66 yards and were outgained by 28 yards by Kansas State.
Now the Sooners will meet their match against a Texas team that is the real deal and will be their stiffest competition yet. The Longhorns have been impressive in every game outside of their loss at Arkansas, and it turns out Arkansas is pretty good. They beat Louisiana-Lafayette by 20, beat Rice by 58, beat Texas Tech by 35 and handled their business in a 5-point win at TCU.
Texas wants to put an end to a three-game losing streak in this rivalry and will be extra motivated after losing in overtime to Oklahoma last season. This is the worst Oklahoma offense they've had in years, and the defense is not as good as everyone said it was going to be coming into the season. They are ripe for the picking this season and those four one-score wins have shown it.
Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games coming in. The Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Texas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. The Longhorns are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with Texas Saturday.
|10-08-21||Temple +29.5 v. Cincinnati||Top||3-52||Loss||-110||30 h 36 m||Show|
25* CFB Friday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple +29.5
Even though this is a standalone game on a Friday night, the Cincinnati Bearcats are in a letdown spot. They are coming off a massive 24-13 win over Notre Dame last week. That followed up a comeback win over Indiana the previous week. And they have UCF on deck next week, making this a sandwich spot.
That was a bad spot for Notre Dame last week. They were facing their second straight team coming off a bye. They were a tired team. The Fighting Irish aren't very good either as they were life and death with both Toledo and Florida State, and they beat a Wisconsin team that is not as good as we all thought.
Temple has impressive me this season, opening 3-2 with an upset win as an 11-point underdog to Memphis last week. The only losses came to Rutgers and Boston College in games that were both much closer than the final scores. Rutgers only outgained them by 104 yards and they actually outgained Boston College by 24 yards.
Temple has a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' here trying to upset this Top 5 team on their schedule in Cincinnati. And I think the Owls have what it takes defensively to stay within four touchdowns. They are only giving up 313 yards.4 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play this season.
Cincinnati's numbers don't look like that of a Top 5 team. They are only gaining 38 more yards per game on offense than their opponents normally allow. They are only giving up 8 yards per game less on defense than their opponents normally average. They are built to win low-scoring, defensive games. So that makes it tough for them to cover these huge numbers.
Cincinnati hasn't won by more than 24 points against Temple in any of the last 22 meetings. That makes for a 22-0 system backing the Owls pertaining to this 29.5-point spread. Temple is actually 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Owls are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games as road underdogs. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Bet Temple Friday.
|10-07-21||Houston v. Tulane OVER 59.5||40-22||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
15* Houston/Tulane ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 59.5
This has the makings of a shootout tonight in Tulane. These are two very good offenses up against two suspect defenses. And based on the series history, this has tended to be a shootout every year.
Tulane has faced a brutal schedule of opposing defenses and has still managed 35.0 points per game this season. The Green Wave are giving up 40.2 points per game against some very good offenses overall. And it won't get much easier for them against Houston tonight.
The Cougars are averaging 36.6 points per game this season. They just hung 45 on a very good Tulsa defense last week. And they have scored 44 or more in three of their last four. But Houston's defensive numbers are skewed because they have played such an easy schedule of opposing offenses with their last four games coming against Rice, Grambling, Navy and Tulsa. They gave up 38 points to Texas Tech in the opener.
Houston and Tulane have combined for 80, 69 and 63 points in their last three meetings, respectively. So we only need to top 59.5 points here. The OVER is 10-4-1 in Cougars last 15 road games. The OVER is 4-0 in Cougars last four games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 5-1 in Green Wave last six games overall. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.
|10-02-21||Northwestern +11.5 v. Nebraska||Top||7-56||Loss||-110||29 h 49 m||Show|
20* Northwestern/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +11.5
We see this yearly with Northwestern. Get off to a slow start then turn it on in the 2nd third of the season. You won't get better value on the Wildcats than what we're getting this week as double-digit dogs to the Nebraska Cornhuskers the rest of the way.
Northwestern has losses to Michigan State and Duke, which aren't that bad of losses as both of those teams are improved. Their handled their business in a 24-6 win over Indiana State, then put together their best performance of the season in a 35-6 win over Ohio as 13.5-point favorites last week.
Now they face a Nebraska team that came close to upsetting both Oklahoma and Michigan State on the road each of the last two weeks. I think that works against the Huskers here. This is a hangover spot after coming so close, and I question their motivation after a 2-3 start. I trust Northwestern's motivation this week as they jump back into Big Ten play.
Nebraska has only covered this number once in its last 10 meetings with Northwestern. The Wildcats either won outright or lost by 11 points or fewer in the other nine meetings. Northwestern has gone 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
The Wildcats are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games as road underdogs. The Wildcats are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 conference games. The Huskers are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 home games. Northwestern is 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to Nebraska. Take Northwestern Saturday.
|10-02-21||Western Kentucky +11 v. Michigan State||31-48||Loss||-110||29 h 48 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Western Kentucky +11
The Michigan State Spartans are overvalued due to their 4-0 start this season. This is a bad spot for them now as they step out of conference off their 23-20 (OT) win over Nebraska last week. They get back into Big Ten play next week and will have a hard time getting motivated to play Western Kentucky.
But Western Kentucky is no pushover. The Hilltoppers are close to being 3-0 this season. But they are undervalued due to being 1-2. They only lost 35-38 to at Army as 6-point dogs, and their other loss was a 31-33 setback at home to Indiana as 9.5-point dogs. If they can pay with Indiana, they can play with Michigan State.
The Hilltoppers will never be out of this game due to stud QB Bailey Zappe. He is completing 73.1% of his passes for 1,224 yards with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions through three games. He should be able to pick apart a Michigan State defense that allowed 283 passing yards to Northwestern, 388 to Miami and 255 to Nebraska.
Michigan State is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. The Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games when paying with 6 or less days' rest. Michigan State is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three seasons. Bet Western Kentucky Saturday.
|10-02-21||Louisiana Tech +19 v. NC State||Top||27-34||Win||100||27 h 19 m||Show|
20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech +19
This is a massive letdown spot for NC State. The Wolfpack upset Clemson 27-21 (OT) as 10.5-point home dogs last week. Now they step out of conference to face LA Tech, and they'll have a very hard time getting up for this game after that massive win.
Louisiana Tech is very close to being 4-0 and underrated right now due to their 2-2 record. They blew a 34-14 4th quarter lead at Mississippi State and lost 34-35 as 20.5-point dogs. They lsot 37-39 on a 33-yard hail mary to SMU as 10.5-point dogs.
Those are two very good teams comparable to NC State. In fact, NC State lost 10-24 at Mississippi State, so Louisiana Tech shouldn't be catching 19 points here. This line should be much closer to 10 points.
There's good news for the Bulldogs too in getting starting QB Austin Kendall back from injury this week. The West Virginia transfer has been great for Skip Holtz, completing 60.6% of his passes for 837 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for three scores and 5.4 per carry this season.
NC State is 0-9 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons. It is losing by nearly 20 points per game in this spot. Holtz is 36-20 ATS as a road underdog in all games as a head coach. The Bulldogs are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 games as road dogs. The Wolfpack are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a win. Roll with Louisiana Tech Saturday.
|10-02-21||South Florida +21.5 v. SMU||17-41||Loss||-110||25 h 18 m||Show|
15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida +21.5
The SMU Mustangs are coming off two straight improbable wins to get to 4-0 on the season. They won on a hail mary 39-37 over Louisiana Tech, then followed it up with a 42-34 upset win as 9.5-point dogs at TCU.
This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Mustangs after beating a Big 12 team and fellow Texas team. It's time to 'sell high' on them here as 21.5-point favorites over South Florida. They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Bulls as they were the Horned Frogs last week.
This is a South Florida team that is undervalued due to its 1-3 record. But they have played a brutal schedule of NC State, Florida and BYU. Those are three of the better teams in the country. NC State beat Clemson, Florida nearly upset Alabama, and BYU beat three Pac-12 teams and is unbeaten.
But USF covered against Florida in a 20-42 loss as 29-point dogs. They also gave BYU a run for its money last week, only losing 27-35 as 24-point dogs. And they won't be intimidated by SMU as this is actually a step down in class compared to what they've been facing thus far.
South Florida is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games after a game where they forced zero turnovers. The Bulls are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games after trailing in their previous game by 17 points or more at halftime. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with South Florida Saturday.
|10-02-21||Ole Miss +15 v. Alabama||21-42||Loss||-110||25 h 57 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +15
I'm a big fan of Ole Miss this season and they have not disappointed with their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start with three blowout victories. Their offense with Heisman contender Matt Corrall gives them a chance to win every game they play.
They are averaging 52.7 points and 635.3 yards per game this season. The improvement on defense has been just as impressive. The Rebels are giving up just 20.7 points and 344.7 yards per game.
They gave defending national champion Alabama their toughest test of the season last year. It was tied 42-42 in the 4th quarter and they eventually lost by 15. This Ole Miss team is improved, and Alabama isn't as strong as they were last year, nearly losing to Florida as a similar 14-point favorite in a 2-point win.
You have to love the fact that Lane Kiffin now has two weeks to prepare for Alabama after having a bye last week. The line has already moved towards the Rebels but I still think there's some value here at 14.5 in a game that should be decided by two touchdowns or less.
Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Alabama) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), after scoring 20 points or more in the first half of two straight games are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1992. The Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Rebels are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. Take Ole Miss Saturday.
|10-02-21||Michigan v. Wisconsin -120||Top||38-17||Loss||-120||70 h 30 m||Show|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin ML -120
This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Wisconsin Badgers. Their season is on the line after a 1-2 start. But those two losses were to two of the best teams in the country in #4 Penn State & #9 Notre Dame. And both losses were misleading.
They outgained Penn State by 62 yards in their 10-16 home loss. They outgained Notre Dame by 72 yards in their 13-41 loss on a neutral last week. They actually led the Fighting Irish 13-10 early in the 4th quarter after a short field goal. But then Notre Dame returned the next kickoff for a TD. They added two pick 6's late in the game and scored 21 points off non-offensive touchdowns. They outscored the Badgers 31-0 to close the 4th quarter. It doesn't get any more misleading than that.
Wisconsin is favored over a ranked Michigan team for good reason here. The season is on the line for the Badgers if they want to play a factor in the Big Ten title race. They will put their best foot forward this week.
Michigan has feasted on one of the easiest schedules in the country. Their four wins have all come at home over Western Michigan, Washington, Northern Illinois and Rutgers. They struggled in their Big Ten opener against Rutgers last week. They won 20-13 but were outgained by 77 yards. Their offense was held to just 275 yards.
And they will struggle to move the ball on this stout Wisconsin defense that is giving up just 210.3 yards per game and 4 yards per play. Despite the 1-2 start, the Badgers are still outgaining teams by 188 yards per game.
The Badgers have crushed the Wolverines each of the last two years. They won 49-11 on the road in 2020 and 35-14 at home in 2019 as short favorites in both games. The Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games. The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with Michigan. You probably won't get better value on Wisconsin for the rest of the season. This is Michigan's first road game. Bet Wisconsin Saturday.
|10-02-21||Duke +20 v. North Carolina||7-38||Loss||-110||21 h 18 m||Show|
15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Duke +20
The North Carolina Tar Heels had huge expectations coming into the season as a Top 10 team. But upset losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech have put a damper on that. And I question their motivation the rest of the way.
They were not only beaten by Georgia Tech, they were dominated physically in a 22-45 loss as 14.5-point favorites. That's a bad sign for them moving forward, and I cannot believe they are getting this much respect as 20-point favorites over rival Duke this week.
Duke is quietly improved this season. They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS and really could easily be 4-0. Their lone loss came 28-31 at Charlotte, a game they gained 580 yards of offense in and actually outgained the 49ers by 102 yards. They went on to outgain their next three opponents by 169, 156 and 77 yards in three straight victories.
This Duke offense clearly has the firepower to keep up with North Carolina. In fact, the Blue Devils actually have better season long stats on offense. They average 38.8 points and 544.5 yards per game, while UNC averages 37.5 points and 507.3 yards per game. And it's not like the Tar Heels are stopping anyone, allowing 29.5 points per game this season compared to 26.0 for Duke.
The Blue Devils are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game. David Cutcliffe is 10-1 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards per game in his last three games as a head coach. The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. Bet Duke Saturday.
|10-01-21||BYU v. Utah State +10||Top||34-20||Loss||-115||14 h 53 m||Show|
20* BYU/Utah State CFB Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah State +10
The BYU Cougars are overvalued right now due to their 4-0 start and No. 13 ranking. I successfully faded them last week and cashed in South Florida as a 24-point underdog in a 27-35 loss, and I'll gladly go against the Cougars again here as double-digit road favorites against Utah State.
Utah State was one of the most impressive teams in the country in the first three weeks. They went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with upset road wins at Washington State as 18-point dogs and at Air Force as 9-point dogs.
But now it's time to 'buy low' on the Aggies this week after they lost 27-3 to Boise State last week. That was one of the most misleading finals of the week. Utah State had 443 total yards and only 3 points in that game. That's because they committed three turnovers.
Utah State has one of the best offenses in the country and will never be out of this game because of it. The Aggies average 31.5 points and 514.0 yards per game this season. Blake Anderson brought a ton of talent with him over from Arkansas State, and it is especially paying off on offense.
BYU is also overvalued due to three wins over Pac-12 teams. But they are 4-0 despite only outgaining their opponents by 1.3 yards per game on the season. That's more like a .500 team than one that is 4-0.
BYU is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse. The Cougars are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as favorites. The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit home loss. Utah State is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 Friday games. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Bet Utah State Friday.
|09-25-21||South Florida +23.5 v. BYU||27-35||Win||100||66 h 9 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on South Florida +23
A lot of bettors were on Arizona State last week thinking it would be a letdown spot for BYU off back-to-back Pac-12 wins over Arizona and their hated rivals in BYU. But it wasn't a letdown spot at all because another ranked Pac-12 team was coming to Provo, and the Cougars handled their business in a 27-17 win as 3.5-point dogs.
That game was a little misleading though as Arizona State gave the game away by committing four turnovers and actually outgained the Cougars by 65 yards. Keep in mind BYU was also outgianed by 58 yards by Arizona in the opener in a 24-16 win. That win looks even worse now after Arizona went on to lose to San Diego State 14-38 in Week 2 and outright as 26-point favorites to Northern Arizona in Week 3.
This is the letdown spot for BYU. After facing three straight Pac-12 opponents, including the last two being ranked, the Cougars will fall flat on their faces with a poor South Florida team coming to town. There's no way they will be up for USF like they were Utah and ASU. And now BYU is the No. 15 ranked team in the country, and with that ranking comes a point spread tax.
South Florida showed big improvements from Week 1 to Week 2. After losing their opener 45-0 to NC State, they covered as 29-point dogs in a 20-42 home loss to Florida. And Florida nearly beat Alabama last week. They made more strides last week by handling their business in a 38-17 win over Florida A&M. And they will relish this opportunity to go on the road to try and knock off a ranked BYU team this week. I like the fact that they have played a tough strength of schedule with Florida & NC State already so they won't be intimidated by BYU, either.
South Florida is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss, including 5-0 ATS in its last five games in this situation. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. South Florida is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four vs. Independent teams. BYU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse. Roll with South Florida Saturday.
|09-25-21||Indiana v. Western Kentucky +9.5||33-31||Win||100||64 h 53 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Western Kentucky +9.5
Tyson Helton is in his third season at Western Kentucky and appears to have his best team yet. They did go 9-4 in his first season but this edition looks really good thus far. A big reason for that is Houston Baptist transfer Bailey Zappe as their senior quarterback.
Zappe led the Hilltoppers to a 59-21 win over Tennessee-Martin as 22-point favorites in the opener. And he nearly led them from behind in a 35-38 loss at Army as a 6-point dog. That is a very good Army team. Zappe is completing 74.7% of his passes for 859 yards with a 10-to-2 TD/INT ratio in only two games.
That's because Western Kentucky had a bye last week. So that means the Hilltoppers have had two weeks to prepare to face Indiana, which is a huge advantage. It gives them a great shot to not only cover as 9.5-point dogs here, but to win this game outright.
Indiana came into the season grossly overvalued after a surprising 6-2 seasons last year. But keep in mind Indiana was actually outgained by 18 yards per game last year. And they have not come close to living up to expectations this year and remain overvalued this week.
Indiana lost its opener 34-6 at Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog. After beating Idaho 56-14, the Hoosiers came back and lost 24-38 at home as 4.5-point dogs to Cincinnati. Now after a 1-2 start, they will have a hard time getting back up off the mat to face Western Kentucky after blowing that game against Cincinnati.
Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. came into the season coming off his second ACL surgery. He looks like a shell of his former self. Penix Jr. is completing just 48.3% of his passes for 448 yards with a 4-to-6 TD/INT ratio through three games. He actually has -15 rushing yards on 10 attempts, so his rushing is no longer a factor. He is also battling a hand injury right now.
The Hoosiers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites. The Hilltoppers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs. Western Kentucky is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games following a bye week. Take Western Kentucky Saturday.
|09-25-21||Akron +49.5 v. Ohio State||7-59||Loss||-106||64 h 34 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Akron +49.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes continue to be overvalued this week as 49.5-point favorites against Akron. They are 2-1 SU but 0-2-1 ATS. They failed to cover in a 45-31 win at Minnesota as 14-point favorites. They lost outright to Oregon 28-35 as 15-point home favorites. And they failed to cover in a 41-20 win over Tulsa as 24.5-point favorites last week what was a 7-point game with less than four minutes left in the 4th quarter before the Buckeyes tacked on two late touchdowns.
Making matters worse for the Buckeyes is that starting QB C.J. Stroud got injured in that Tulsa game and is doubtful to play Saturday. Stroud had been impressive with 62.4% completions, 963 passing yards and eight touchdowns with three interceptions through three games. Whoever is under center for the Buckeyes will be making their first career start here.
Akron is in Year 3 under head coach Tom Arth and is clearly improved this season. Arth welcomed back 18 starters. After losing badly at Auburn in the opener, they lost 24-45 to Temple in a game that was closer than the final score. And last week they crushed Bryant 35-14 as 11.5-point favorites while racking up 514 total yards and holding Bryant to just 146, outgaining them by 368 yards.
Demarcus Irons replaced an injured Kato Nelson at quarterback and was fantastic against Bryant. He completed 19-of-23 passes for 296 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 136 yards and a score. I think Akron will be better off with Irons are QB moving forward if Nelson remains out.
Whoever is under center should be able to move the ball on a leaky Ohio State defense that clearly hasn't improved since last year. The Buckeyes are giving up 471 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season. That's bad when you consider Minnesota and Tulsa aren't known for having great offenses, and even both of them put up big numbers. Tulsa had 501 total yards on Ohio State last week.
Favorites of at least 49 points between two FBS teams are just 1-12 ATS since 1996, and 2-16 ATS since 1993. These big favorites just don't seem to cover because it's asking a lot of them to be motivated enough for four quarters to put the opposition away. And many times backups play the majority of the second half and they just try and get out of there with a win instead of running up the score. Roll with Akron Saturday.
|09-25-21||Southern Miss +45.5 v. Alabama||14-63||Loss||-108||63 h 24 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Southern Miss +45.5
Nick Saban just refused to run up the score against these weak non-conference teams. He chooses to get a big lead in the first half, and then to replace his starters in the second half and sit on the lead by running the football and milking clock. That makes it very hard for Alabama to cover these huge spreads.
With Alabama's No. 1 ranking comes a point spread tax, and that has shown up the last two weeks. Alabama only beat Mercer 48-14 as a 54.5-point favorite in Week 2. They came back and barely held on as a 14-point favorite in a 31-29 win at Florida. And now the Crimson Tide have Ole Miss on deck next week, so this is a sandwich spot for them. They just want to get out of here healthy and with a win. They aren't concerned about running up the score.
Southern Miss has impressed me defensively. I think their defense is good enough to hold Alabama in check to 48 points or fewer, just as Mercer did two weeks ago. The Eagles are giving up just 17.3 points per game, 252.0 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play to this point.
Alabama is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite of 42.5 points or more. The Crimson Tide are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 September games. Alabama is 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. Conference USA opponents. Bet Southern Miss Saturday.
|09-25-21||Tennessee +20 v. Florida||Top||14-38||Loss||-108||78 h 52 m||Show|
20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +20
This is a terrible spot for the Florida Gators. They played their 'Game of the Year' last week against Alabama. They rallied back from a 21-3 deficit and nearly forced overtime. But they came up short on a 2-point conversion and lost 29-31. Now it will be hard for them to get back up off the mat this week to face Tennessee.
I actually like what I've seen from this Vols team. They won their opener by 32 over Bowling Green, gave Pitt all they could handle in 7-point loss, and blasted Tennessee Tech 56-0 last week. The Vols should still be fresh after getting to rest their starters early in that shutout win last week. The Gators are probably still pretty beat up both physically and mentally from playing Alabama.
Florida has relied on its running game to move the football on offense this season. They average 336 rushing yards per game and only 217 passing. That makes this a great matchup for Tennessee. The Vols are only allowing 54 rushing yards per game and 1.7 yards per carry. I know they haven't seen a rushing attack as good as Florida's, but those numbers are impressive nonetheless, and they can hold their own in that department.
Florida only beat Florida Atlantic by 21 and South Florida by 22 in its two games prior to Alabama. Tennessee is better than both those teams and can stay within 20. Florida is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Gators are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. I just think they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers this week after giving Alabama all they could handle. This has the makings of a flat spot for the Gators. Take Tennessee Saturday.