20* Houston/Cincinnati ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +7.5

I believe the Houston Cougars are being way over-hyped right now, which has them overvalued as 7.5-point favorites on the road this week against one of the top contenders in the American Athletic in Cincinnati.

The Cougars went 13-1 last season and have opened 2-0 this year with a win over Oklahoma already. While there’s no question they are a very good team, I would argue that they should not be ranked as high as No. 6, and they certainly aren’t one of the best 10 teams in the country.

Star QB Greg Ward Jr. is banged up right now with a shoulder injury and had to sit out last week against Lamar. He is expected to play this week, but he will still be feeling the effects of that injury. Also, star RB Duke Catalon is nursing an ankle injury that forced him out last week, and he may play as well but won’t be 100%.

Cincinnati may have been the best 7-6 team in the country last year. It outgained its opponents by 129 yards per game while averaging 538 per game on offense. That offense is loaded again, and the defense should be much improved with eight starters back.

The defense has played very well the first two weeks in limiting Tennessee-Martin and Purdue to a combined 27 points while forcing eight turnovers. The offense really got going against Purdue with 512 total yards with 262 on the ground and 250 through the air. That’s an improved Purdue team from the Big Ten, so a 38-20 road win over the Boilermakers is nothing to laugh about, especially considering the Bearcats were only 3-point favorites.

Cincinnati wants revenge on Houston after losing 30-33 on the road as 9-point underdogs last year. It outgained Houston 589-427 for the game, or by 162 total yards, and should have won. The Bearcats are still 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Cougars.

Cincinnati has one of the best home-field advantages in college football. It is now 27-5 at home over the past five-plus seasons. Rarely will you see the Bearcats ever catching points at home because of this, especially not more than a touchdown like they are against the Cougars. The value is clearly with them in this game.

Houston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 6 points or less last game. Cincinnati is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. The Bearcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Cincinnati is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 conference games. The Cougars are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Cincinnati.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) – excellent passing team from last season – had a completion pct of 62% or better are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) – in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins are 50-17 (74.6%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Cincinnati Thursday.

15* UNC/Illinois ACC vs. Big Ten No-Brainer on Illinois +7.5

For starters, the Fighting Illini are going to want revenge from their 14-48 loss at North Carolina last season. Now they get the Tar Heels at home this time around, and it’s going to be a great atmosphere as fans in Champaign are excited after their 52-3 victory over Murray State last week.

Illinois was better than its 5-7 record would indicate last season. It went through turmoil at the head coach position, but still nearly made a bowl game. Also, five of the seven losses came by 11 points or less, so that game against UNC was one of only two in which the Illini weren’t competitive last year.

The Fighting Illini have new life under former NFL head coach Lovie Smith, who was with the Bears for nine years and the Buccaneers for two. He inherited some nice talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball where seven starters returned.

The key was bringing back one of the most underrated QB’s in the country in Wes Lunt, the former Oklahoma State transfer. This offense has really clicked with him at QB. Lunt threw for 2,761 yards and 14 touchdowns against six interceptions last year. He welcomed backed two of his top three receivers this year, and leading rusher Ke’Shawn Vaughn (723 yards, 6 TD).

The offense really looked good against Murray State in the 52-3 win. The Fighting Illini racked up 515 total yards, including 226 passing and three touchdowns from Lunt. The defense was equally impressive under new defensive coordinator Hardy Nickerson, a five-time Pro Bowler. The Illini held Murray State to just 165 total yards while forcing three turnovers.

I believe UNC is one of the most overrated teams in the country after going 11-3 last year. It lost its most important player in QB Marquise Williams, and the defense is still terrible, just as it has been ever since Larry Fedora took over as head coach.

That was evident in the 24-33 loss to Georgia last week. UNC gave up 474 total yards to the Bulldogs and managed only 315 yards on offense, getting outgained by 159 yards for the game. New QB Mitch Trubisky struggled, completing just 24-of-40 passes for 156 yards with zero touchdowns.

But the real problem was stopping the run as the Tar Heels gave up 289 yards and 5.6 per carry to the Bulldogs. They will get shredded again on the ground by a Fighting Illini team that rushed for 287 yards and 7.2 per carry against Murray State. It’s also worth noting the Illini held the Racers to -10 rushing yards on 26 carries, which is impressive against any opponent.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ILLINOIS) – in non-conference games, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 140-79 (63.9%) ATS since 1992.

Larry Fedora is 0-7 ATS in September road games as the coach of North Carolina. Fedora is also 2-10 ATS in road games in the first half of the season as the coach of the Tar Heels. UNC is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games.  Roll with Illinois Saturday.

20* In-State Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +15.5

Certainly, a 20-25 home loss to FCS opponent Northern Iowa is concerning for Iowa State. The Cyclones clearly didn’t play their best game, and that wasn’t the way that former Toledo coach Matt Campbell wanted to start his tenure in Ames.

But I’m not going to look too much into that result. Iowa State always played Iowa tough, and it will be even more determined this week after that loss. Not to mention, Northern Iowa is one of the best FCS teams in the country as it was ranked No. 3 coming into the season.

Plus, Iowa has just as much reason to be concerned even though it beat Miami (Ohio) 45-21 last week. The Redhawks basically gave that game away by committing three turnovers that set the Hawkeyes up with great scoring opportunities.

In fact, Iowa was actually outgained by Miami (Ohio) by 20 yards. The defense gave up 424 total yards and 25 first downs to the Redhawks, while Iowa only managed 404 total yards and 17 first downs. That was a Miami team that went a combined 5-31 over the past three seasons.

I believe Iowa remains overvalued early in the season after going 12-0 in the regular season last year.  It failed to cover as 27.5-point favorites against Miami in the opener.  That game was clearly closer than the final score would indicate when you look at the stats.  At the same time, Iowa State is undervalued off a 3-9 season and a loss to UNI in its opener.  It’s the perfect storm value-wise.

I still think Iowa State is going to prove to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Campbell had 13 starters back and this team had a great offseason. The offense is loaded with studs at the skill positions in QB Joel Lanning, RB Mike Warren and WR Allen Lazard. The defense had eight starters back this year and will be improved.

The key here is that Iowa State always plays Iowa tough. In fact, Iowa State is 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings. All five meetings were decided by 14 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer, so getting 15 points is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. The road team has won each of the last four meetings outright while going 4-0 ATS.

Plays on a road team (IOWA ST) – after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, game between two teams with 5 or less offensive starters returning are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Iowa is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a no-cover where it won straight up as a favorite. The Cyclones are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 vs. Big Ten opponents. Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. The Hawkeyes are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine trips to Iowa.  Take Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Vanderbilt -4.5

Vanderbilt's 13-10 loss to South Carolina in its opener has it undervalued heading into this home showdown with Conference-USA foe Middle Tennessee State.  This is a very short number for an SEC team at home against a C-USA opponent.

I still believe Vanderbilt is going to be much better in 2016.  Derek Mason is in Year 3 and has his best team yet with 15 starters and 57 lettermen back while losing only 16 letter winners.

The Commodores were better than their 4-8 record would indicate last year as they took both Ole Miss and Florida down to the wire on the road.  Their defense gave up only 21.0 points per game last year and returned seven starters from that unit.

The offense will be improved, too, even after that poor performance against South Carolina in which they blew a 10-0 lead after it looked like they were going to roll early.  Ralph Webb rushed for 1,152 yards and five touchdowns last year and should get on track this week.  Webb went for 97 yards against South Carolina last week.

Middle Tennessee went 7-6 last year and has just 12 starters and 40 lettermen back while losing 30 letter winners.  The Blue Raiders are a solid, middle-of-the-pack team from Conference-USA, but they're a big step down in competition from South Carolina.

Yes, Middle Tennessee is coming off a 55-0 shutout victory over Alabama A&M, but it was a 47.5-point favorite in that game.  That's not as impressive as it looks.  The step up in competition this week will be felt.

Last year, Vanderbilt went on the road and beat Middle Tennessee 17-13 as 2-point underdogs.  It outgained the Blue Raiders 414-320 for the game, or by 94 total yards.  The Commodores rushed for 237 yards in that contest and will have their way on the ground again.

Middle Tennessee only has five starters back on defense and loses each of its top four tacklers from last year.  Head coach Rick Stockstill clearly doesn't make defending the run a priority.  The Blue Raiders have given up at least 183 rushing yards per game in five of the past six seasons.

Vanderbilt knows it is better than it showed against South Carolina and will be highly motivated to prove it at home Saturday.  This line is dropping because bettors don't like what they saw from Vanderbilt last week, and they are overreacting to MTSU's win over Alabama A&M.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (VANDERBILT) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS since 1992.


The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. C-USA opponents.  The Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. SEC foes.  The Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Duke -5

Wake Forest was supposed to be better entering Year 3 under Dave Clawson.  Well, that's clearly not the case after it only beat Tulane 7-3 at home as 14-point favorites.

That's really bad when you consider that Tulane went 3-9 last year and has a first-year head coach this season.  This is a Tulane team that gave up 36.3 points per game last year.

Wake had a terrible offense last year in scoring just 17.4 points per game.  It's terrible once again as the Demon Deacons only managed 7 points and 175 total yards against Tulane.  The Green Wave actually outgained them by 105 yards for the game.

Duke is one of the most underrated teams in the country year in and year out under David Cutcliffe.  The Blue Devils have gone a combined 28-13 over the past three-plus years.

The Blue Devils got off to a great start to their 2016 season by beating NC Central 49-6 and outgaining them by 423 yards in the process, taking care of business just as they were expected to, and unlike Wake Forest.

Duke has had Wake Forest's number in recent year.  It has won four straight meetings, including a 41-21 victory in its lone home meeting.  All four wins came by 6 points or more.  Duke is now 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with the Demon Deacons.  The Blue Devils are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games overall.

Only having to lay 5 points on the clearly superior team at home is a gift from oddsmakers.  Wake has gone 3-9 each of the past two seasons and doesn't appear to be getting much better after that woeful performance against Tulane last week.  Roll with Duke Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky +17

There’s no question that a home loss to Southern Miss is a little concerning for Kentucky fans, but considering they were only 3.5-point favorites, it shouldn’t be that much of a shocker.

This was a Southern Miss team that returned 13 starters and 55 lettermen from a team that went 9-5 and made the Conference USA Championship Game. That includes sensational QB Nick Mullens, who threw for 4,476 yards and 38 touchdowns against 12 interceptions last year.

And the Wildcats were dominating this game with a 35-10 lead with less than a minute to play in the first half. They completely fell apart from that point-forward, getting outscored 34-0 the rest of the way by the Golden Eagles.

I still come away with some positives as Kentucky’s offense really got going behind talented sophomore Drew Barker, who threw for 323 yards and four touchdowns. This is an offense that returned nine starters from last year, and Barker wasn’t even one of them. This offense can keep them in the game against Florida.

Yes, Kentucky’s defense left a lot to be desired, but the good news is that its up against a Florida team that once again has no offense in 2016. I’m way more concerned with Florida’s lackluster 24-7 opening win against UMass as 34.5-point favorites than Kentucky’s loss to Southern Miss.

Florida is a team I am way down on this year. It got very lucky to win the SEC East last year with so many close wins. Five of its 10 wins came by a touchdown or less, including a 31-24 home win over ECU, a fluke 28-27 home win over Tennessee, an ugly 9-7 home win over Vanderbilt, and a 20-14 (OT) win at home against Florida Atlantic.

In fact, the Gators only outgained teams last year by 24 yards per game and outscored them by 4.9 points per game.  There's no way they should have won 10 games with those numbers.  The Gators’ true colors showed against the big boys in their final three games with a 25-point loss to Florida State, a 14-point loss to Alabama, and a 34-point loss to Michigan in the bowl game.

Florida’s offense managed just 334 yards per game and 23.2 points per game last season. That offense looked shaky in the 24-7 win over UMass again. The Gators only managed 363 total yards, including 107 rushing and 3.7 per carry.

The Gators were only leading UMass 10-7 at the end of the 3rd quarter before winning the 4th 14-0 to pull away. This was a UMass team that went just 3-9 with 19 starters back last year, and it only returned 10 starters this year. It’s also a team that gave up 31.4 points and 448 yards per game to opponents last year.

Kentucky will be highly motivated to end its 29-game losing streak to Florida; the longest active streak in the country. It has come close each of the last two years. It lost 30-36 (OT) at Florida as 17.5-point dogs in 2014, and 9-14 at home as 3.5-point dogs last year. The Wildcats weren’t overmatched in either game, and they certainly won’t be overmatched enough to lose by more than 17 points in this 2016 meeting.

Florida is 0-7 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game over the past three seasons. The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Florida is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the Wildcats.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -3

The Kansas Jayhawks come into the 2016 season way undervalued after going 0-12 last year.  I have no doubt they are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country with 16 starters back after having only six starters back in David Beaty's first season in 2015.

Beaty has done all the right things in Lawrence this offseason to improve this team.  Their strength training, which is well documented, will pay huge dividends.  They are bigger, stronger and faster this season, and several players who were forced into action as underclassmen last year are now a year older.

The improvements couldn't have shown more than they did in a 55-6 victory over Rhode Island in their opener.  Their three quarterbacks combined for six touchdown passes as they racked up 570 yards of total offense.  Their defense limited Rhode Island to just 219 total yards and forced three turnovers, outgaining them by 351 yards.

Ohio is a solid team under Frank Solich, but a 54-56 (OT) loss in their opener at home to Texas State as 17-point favorites is certainly concerning for the Bobcats.  They gave up 546 total yards in the loss, including 440 passing.  Kansas should have its way through the air against the Bobcats as well.

Kansas is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games vs. MAC opponents.  The Bobcats are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Kansas is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 6 points or fewer in its previous game.

The Jayhawks are 29-4 SU in their last 33 home games vs. non-conference opponents.  With a small number of only 3, basically all they have to do is win this game to cover the spread.  It's time to hop on the Jayhawks' bandwagon now because in a few weeks bettors are going to realize this team is no longer a pushover.  Take Kansas Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +6

The Penn State Nittany Lions are a team I'm very high on this season.  They are in Year 3 under James Franklin, and he clearly has his best team yet.  He came into 2016 with 14 starters back and only 18 lettermen lost.

But the Nittany Lions are undervalued in 2016 because they are coming off back-to-back disappointing 7-6 seasons.  But now Franklin has the QB he recruited in Trace McSorley, and not the one that was handed to him in Christian Hackenberg, who wasn't a fit for the offense he prefers to run.

McSorley is a dual-threat guy who flashed that talent in a 33-13 win over Penn State in the opener.  He threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 47 yards.  The offense has nine starters back around him, so he doesn't have to do it all.  That includes one of the best RB's in the country in Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 1,076 yards and 7 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry last year.  Barkley rushed for 105 yards and a TD in the opener.

Penn State has had an elite defense every year under Franklin, giving up 18.6 points and 279 yards per game in 2014, and 21.8 points and 324 yards per game in 2015.  They held Kent State to 279 total yards and forced three turnovers in the opener.  Now the offense will finally catch up to the defense this season.

While I like Pitt and its direction, I don't believe it should be favored against a top-tier Big Ten opponent.  I fully expect the Nittany Lions to win this game outright, so getting 6 points is an added bonus and a ton of value in a game that could easily go down to the wire and be decided by a field goal.

Pitt played in a ton of close games last season en route to going 8-5 in Pat Narduzzi's first season.  In fact, a whopping eight of those 13 games were decided by a TD or less.  These teams play similar styles as they like to run the ball and play good defense, which will lead to a close game.

Pitt wasn't impressive at all in its 28-7 win over FCS foe Villanova as 28-point favorites in the opener.  It only managed 261 yards of total offense while outgaining Villanova by only 89 yards.  The Panthers continue to be held back at the QB position as Nathan Peterman threw for only 175 yards.  James Connor returned from injury after missing most of last year and only rushed for 53 yards on 17 carries.  He may only be a shell of his former self this season.

Plays against a home team (PITTSBURGH) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS since 1992.

Franklin is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a no-cover where his team won as a favorite in all games he has coached.  His teams are winning 38.9 to 13.4 on average, or by 25.5 points per game.  This guy is the real deal and will do big things at Penn State sooner rather than later.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* Louisville/Syracuse ESPN 2 Friday No-Brainer on Syracuse +15

The Syracuse Orange are a team on the rise under first-year head coach Dino Babers. He led Bowling Green to an 18-9 record in his two years there and the MAC title last year. We all saw how poor Bowling Green looked in a 10-77 loss to Ohio State in their first game without him.

Babers stepped into a great situation at Syracuse with 16 returning starters. This is a team that lost only 17 lettermen from a year ago and will be much more competitive in ACC play after a down 4-8 season last year.

Babers brings a great offensive mind and calls his own plays. This offense racked up 554 total yards in a 33-7 win over Colgate in the opener. Sophomore QB Eric Dungey was brilliant, completing 34-of-40 passes for 355 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Eight starters are back on offense this year.

The defense was equally impressive in allowing just 143 total yards and 11 first downs to Colgate. This is going to be one of the most improved defenses in the country this season with eight starters and each of the top seven tacklers back from a year ago.

I think Louisville comes in overvalued here as more than a two-touchdown road favorite because of its emphatic 70-14 win over Charlotte last week. Well, Charlotte is one of the worst teams in the FBS as it recently just joined the FBS. The 49ers went 2-10 last year in their first season as members of the FBS and got outscored by 18.8 points per game.

I really think this is a tough spot for Louisville, too. It will be looking ahead to its showdown against Florida State next week, which will determine if the Cardinals have a shot in the stacked ACC Atlantic Division. I don’t believe the Cardinals will give the Orange their full attention as a result.

Syracuse is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games off a win by 17 points or more. The Orange are 20-5 ATS in their last 25 home games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six conference games. The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. They went 3-3 SU at home last year with all three losses coming to ranked teams in LSU, Pitt & Clemson by 10 points or less.

Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SYRACUSE) – in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 153-87 (63.8%) ATS since 1992.  The Orange should be able to stay within two touchdowns of the Cardinals tonight.  Take Syracuse Friday.

20* Ole Miss/Florida State ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Florida State -4.5

Despite bringing back just 11 starters last year, the Seminoles still managed to win at least 10 games for the fourth straight season.  Now they are loaded with 17 starters back in 2016 in what will be one of Jimbo Fisher's best teams yet.

Eleven starters return on offense in all.  Every player that started last year is expected to start again except for at quarterback, where freshman Deondre Francois has played his way into the starting role for the opener.  This kid is one of the most electric young quarterbacks in the country, and I'm expecting a coming out party similar to that of Jameis Winston against Pittsburgh a few years back.

Francois won't have to do too much considering the talent is loaded around him.  He can give the ball to Dalvin Cook, who rushed for 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 7.4 yards per carry last year.  Almost every receiver who caught a pass last year is back, led by Travis Rudolph, who caught 59 balls for 916 yards and seven touchdowns.  The Seminoles have one of the best offensive lines in the country as well.

Defensively, Florida State gave up just 17.5 points and 337 yards per game last year.  They do only have six returning starters on defense, but the replacements are some of the top recruits in the country.  Fisher has always had a stout defense as the Seminoles have allowed fewer than 20 points per game in five of his first season seasons.  That will be the case again.

But now the Rebels only have 10 starters back this year and lose arguably their three best players to the first round of the NFL Draft in OT Laremy Tunsil, DT Robert Nkemdiche and WR Laquon Treadwell.

Ole Miss had a magical 10-3 season last year with 16 returning starters and a plethora of NFL talent.  But now the Rebels only have 10 starters back this year and lose arguably their three best players to the first round of the NFL Draft in OT Laremy Tunsil, DT Robert Nkemdiche and WR Laquon Treadwell.  While it's not a full-blown rebuilding year, there's no question that the Rebels will take a couple steps back in 2016.

While this game will technically be played on a neutral field, there's no question the Seminoles will have more fans there as it's played in Orlando.  The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Plays against any Any team (OLE MISS) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record are 28-5 (84.8%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Florida State Monday.

15* Notre Dame/Texas ABC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Texas +3.5

I’m huge on Texas this year and believe it will compete for the Big 12 Championship. I love third-year head coaches like Charlie Strong, especially in situations like these. He didn’t have the players he wanted his first two seasons, but now he has mostly his players in place to execute his schemes in Year 3.

In fact, Strong welcomes back 15 starters and 52 lettermen this year, making this his most experienced team yet in Austin. The key will be improvement on offense, which won’t be a problem with new coordinator Sterling Gilbert, who guided Tulsa’s offense to over 500 yards of offense per game last year.

Tyrone Swoopes and stud freshman Shane Buechele are expected to share snaps this game. They will run Gilbert’s veer and shoot system, which is going to be completely different than what Notre Dame was up against last year. The change in scheme will cause some problems for Notre Dame’s defense as the Longhorns have the element of surprise working in their favor.

Strong should have his best defense yet at Texas with eight starters and seven of the top nine tacklers back from last year. The Longhorns are absolutely loaded with talent on this side of the ball, and several of the freshmen who played big minutes last year are now sophomores and will be improved greatly.

Many expect Notre Dame to compete for a national title this year, but I’m not seeing it. I see this as more of a rebuilding year for head coach Brian Kelly and company. That’s because the Fighting Irish return only four starters. They lose four of their top five receivers on offense, three starters along the offensive line, and six of their top eight tacklers on defense.

There’s no question that Texas has been working extra hard all offseason to try and avenge its ugly 3-38 loss at Notre Dame to open the 2015 season. The Longhorns will want this one badly, and now I would argue that they are actually the better team. They have 15 starters back compared to nine for Notre Dame, while last year they only had 11 starters back compared to 16 for the Fighting Irish.

This line has been bet down from 4.5 to 3 in a lot of places for good reason. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) – with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season are 58-24 (70.7%) ATS since 1992.  Take Texas Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -3

I believe the Georgia Bulldogs will hit the ground running in Kirby Smart’s first season on the job. Talent certainly was not the issue for this team under Mark Richt, who cashed in four 10-win seasons in his past five years. While I don’t agree with his firing, I do believe Smart will do just as good of a job, if not better, here.

Smart inherits a ton of talent and experience with 14 returning starters. The offense figures to be vastly improved with eight starters back and likely better play at the quarterback position. Greyson Lambert will get the nod after completing 63.3 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions last year. Look for the senior to step up his game this season.

The good news is that the Bulldogs will have an elite running game now that Nick Chubb is back and healthy. They started 4-1 last year with their only loss to Alabama, but then Chubb was out for the year with a knee injury suffered against Tennessee and the Bulldogs leading 24-3. They would go on to lose that game. Chubb still finished with 747 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 8.1 yards per carry in five-plus games.

The biggest thing Smart adds to this team is his expertise on defense. And he should come close to matching Georgia’s numbers last year on this side of the ball. It gave up just 16.9 points and 306 yards per game. Four of the top seven tacklers and six starters return.

I have a very good feeling that UNC was a one-hit wonder last year. It came out of nowhere to win 11 games and the Coastal Division. But now the hype is too strong heading into 2015, and the Tar Heels are sure to take a step back.

They do return 14 starters, but they lose their best player in QB Marquise Williams, who threw for 3,072 yards with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year. He also rushed for 948 yards and 13 scores. The Tar Heels will turn to junior Mitch Trubisky, who has some massive shoes to fill.

Defensively, the Tar Heels only gave up 24.5 points per game last year after giving up 39.0 in 2014. However, they still gave up 436 yards per game and weren’t that good of a defense. They surrendered 17.8 yards per point last year after giving up 12.8 yards per point in 2014. That was more luck than anything.

North Carolina is 2-11 in its last 13 road openers and went 0-3 last year in games played on a neutral field, including a 13-17 loss to South Carolina in the opener. That was an awful Gamecocks team that finished 3-9 on the season. The Tar Heels really struggled against the big boys last year in Baylor and Clemson as well.

I also like the fact that this is essentially a home game for the Bulldogs as it's played in Atlanta and not even close to a neutral field.  Plus, Chubb and the Georgia rushing attack should have their way all game.  UNC surrendered 247 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry last year.  In its final three games, it gave up 308 rushing yards to Virginia Tech, 319 to Clemson and a ridiculous 645 to Baylor.

Georgia is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 vs. ACC opponents. The Bulldogs are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 non-conference road games. Larry Fedora is 0-6 ATS in September road games as the coach of North Carolina.  Roll with Georgia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wisconsin +10

I was impressed with Paul Chryst in his first season in Madison. He took a team that returned just 11 starters and won 10 games. Two losses came by a combined 10 points, and the other was against eventual national champion Alabama in the season opener.

Now Chryst has 12 starters and 51 lettermen back in 2016, and these players are familiar with his systems. Senior RB Corey Clement couldn’t stay healthy last year, otherwise the story may have been different in the Big Ten West. Clement is now healthy and ready to carry the load offensively as the Badgers get back to ground-and-pound after a sub-par season on the ground last year.

I really don’t think the Badgers are going to miss QB Joel Stave that much. After all, he threw just 11 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions last season. Fifth-year senior Bart Houston won the job in camp and should be able to surpass Stave’s mediocre numbers this season. But the key on offense is having four returning starters and 62 career starts along the offensive line.

Defensively, Wisconsin gave up just 13.7 points and 269 yards per game last season. Now they have six starters and four of their top six tacklers back from last year. They are very strong up front with five starters back among their front seven.

That’s key because the Badgers only gave up 95 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry last season. Since LSU lacks a passing game as Brandon Harris has disappointed and will start again, it’s going to be all Leonard Fournette offensively for the Tigers. That makes this an excellent matchup for the Badgers, who will rise to the occasion and hold Fournette in check.

This is essentially a home game for the Badgers as it will be held in their home state of Wisconsin at Lambeau Field. We saw two years ago Wisconsin hold a 24-13 lead over LSU in Houston at the end of the 3rd quarter, only to get outscored 15-0 in the final period and lose 28-24. I look for this meeting to go right down to the wire as well, thus getting 10 points is a value, especially with the location of the game and the favorable matchup.  Take Wisconsin Saturday.

20* UCLA/Texas A&M CFB Saturday No-Brainer on Texas A&M -3

The Texas A&M Aggies failed to meet expectations last year because their offense was the worst of the Sumlin era. They only put up 27.8 points per game after averaging 41.3 points per game in his first three years on the job. But you can’t hold a Sumlin offense down for long.

The problem last year was at quarterback as both Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray struggled. Both transferred in the offseason, paving the way for former Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight to take over the job in 2016. He made 15 career starts with the Sooners and threw for 3,424 yards while also rushing for 853 yards and 5.6 per carry. He’ll be a big upgrade at the position.

Also helping out Knight is the fact that he has arguably the best set of receivers in the country. Each of the top five receivers are back from last year. Leading the way are Christian Kirk (80 receptions, 1,009 yards, 7 TD last year), Josh Reynolds (51, 907, 5 TD), Ricky Seals-Jones (45, 560, 4 TD) and Speedy Noil (21, 226, 2 TD). Noil will miss this game due to suspension, but that’s not a big loss.

The sad part about last season is that the Aggies wasted their best defense of the Sumlin era. John Chavis was one of the most underrated coordinator hires in the country last season, and he helped guide the Aggies into giving up just 22.0 points and 380 yards per game.

Now the Aggies return seven starters and seven of the top eight tacklers on D, making this one of the best stop units in the SEC. They have the best DE tandem in the country in Myles Garrett (12.5 sacks last year) and Daeshon Hall (7 sacks), who will be key in this game in getting after Josh Rosen and UCLA’s passing attack.

While there’s no denying that Rosen is one of the best QB’s in the country, I am concerned about the lack of experience around him as the Bruins return just four starters on offense. They lose four of their top five receivers from last year and leading rusher Paul Perkins (1,343 yards, 14 TD), who did everything for this team.

Sumlin certainly knows how to get his teams ready for the season. The Aggies have gone 5-0 to start each of the last two seasons. They beat South Carolina 52-28 on the road in their opener as 10-point dogs in 2014, then stomped Pac-12 opponent Arizona State 38-17 on a neutral field to open 2015.

Now the Aggies get to play at home, where they are 26-2 in their last 28 home openers. Texas A&M is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 September games. I look for a hostile atmosphere in College Station to be key in guiding the Aggies to a win and cover Saturday afternoon.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

20* K-State/Stanford CFB Friday No-Brainer on Stanford -14

Stanford head coach David Shaw continues to do a tremendous job in recruiting. Despite returning just 12 starters last year, the Cardinal went 12-2 and beat Iowa by 29 points in the Rose Bowl. Now they return just 11 starters, but that’s not a big concern given the talent level on hand.

The biggest concern is replacing Kevin Hogan at quarterback. But senior Ryan Burns has been waiting his turn and is prepared to take over the job. He stands 6’5″ and 233 pounds and was a highly rated recruit as a high school player in Virginia, but he couldn’t find the field because of Hogan’s success.

The good news is that Burns will be handing the ball off to Christian McCaffrey, who should have won the Heisman Trophy last year. McCaffrey broks Barry Sanders’ record for all-purpose yards in a season last year. He finished with 2,019 rushing yards and 645 receiving yards and was a beast on special teams as well.

The Stanford defense figures to be dominant once again with six starters back from a unit that gave up 22.6 points per game last year. The D only had three starters back last season, so improvement can be expected on this side of the ball. Look for the Cardinal to get back to the 16.4 points and 282 yards per game they allowed in 2014.

While the Cardinal are legit national title contenders, the K-State Wildcats finally look like they’re fading in the Big 12 under legendary coach Bill Snyder. They went just 6-7 last year and were blown out 55-0 by Oklahoma and 45-23 by Arkansas in the process. They were outgained by 118 yards per game overall and 153.6 yards per game in Big 12 play last year.

Now the Wildcats have just 12 returning starters and all kinds of questions on offense. Jesse Ertz was hurt last year, so he’ll be back, but he’s not going to have much success against this dominant Stanford defense. I expect this game to play out similar to the 45-23 Arkansas game and the 45-16 beat down Stanford put on Iowa, which was a much better team than Kansas State.

Stanford is 42-5 at home over the past seven seasons. It has won 15 straight non-conference home openers with its last lost coming to Notre Dame. The Cardinal have won eight straight home openers by an average of 27 points per game as well.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (STANFORD) – solid team from last season – outscored opponents by 10 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Stanford is 8-0 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last three seasons. The Cardinal are 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games overall, including 38-18 ATS in their last 56 home games.  Bet Stanford Friday.

15* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado -8.5

The Colorado Buffaloes are primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Injuries absolutely killed this team last year as they were better than their 4-9 record would indicate. They have lost a whopping eight Pac-12 games by a touchdown or less over the last two seasons alone.

Now fourth-year head coach Mike MacIntyre is going to have his best team yet. The Buffaloes return 18 starters and 63 lettermen, making them the most experienced team in the Pac-12. Look for this team to be undervalued early in the season, and I believe they aren’t getting enough respect as only 8.5-point favorites here.

Starting QB Sefo Liufau is now a senior and has already thrown for 7,397 yards in his career. He’ll be the school’s all-time leading passer by within a couple games this season. He is among nine returning starters on offense from a unit that put up a respectable 397 yards per game last year.

The defense improved dramatically last season in allowing just 27.5 points per game after giving up 39.0 in 2014. Now the Buffaloes should take another step forward with nine starters and each of the top four tacklers returning.

While Colorado is on the rise, Colorado State is surely on the decline this season. Mike Bobo stepped into a great situation last year with 15 returning starters left over from Jim McElwain, who left for Florida. All he could get out of that team was a 7-6 record after they went 10-3 the year before.

Now it looks like a rebuilding year as the Rams return just 10 starters. The offense returns QB Nick Stevens, but he loses each of his top four receivers from last year, including stud Rashard Higgins, who caught 75 balls for 1,062 yards and eight touchdowns.

While the offense should still be decent, the bigger concern is on defense where the Rams return only four starters. They had eight starters back on D last year and gave up 27.2 points per game, and now they’ll easily give up 30-plus in 2016. That explosive Colorado offense should have its way with this inexperience Rams’ defense in Week 1.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO) – in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in last five games are 37-12 (75.5%) ATS since 1992.  Take Colorado Friday.

20* Oregon State/Minnesota Pac-12 vs. Big Ten BAILOUT on Oregon State +13

The Oregon State Beavers come into the 2016 season undervalued because of their 2-10 campaign last year. That’s pretty evident by the fact that they are 13-point underdogs to a Minnesota team that finished in the bottom half of the Big Ten last year with a 5-7 record during the regular season.

While I do like this Minnesota team, I do not agree that it should be 13-point favorites here Thursday night. The Golden Gophers return 13 starters and 39 lettermen, but they lose four of their top six tacklers on defense.

Most of their returning starters are on offense with seven in all, but this is a unit that put up just 22.5 points per game last season. With the lack of an explosive offense, it’s easy to predict that the Golden Gophers are going to have a hard time covering this 13-point spread in what should be a low-scoring affair.

Gary Andersen did a tremendous job at Utah State and Wisconsin before coming here. He won 30 games over a 3-year span before coming to Oregon State. Then he stepped into an awful situation as the Beavers had just nine returning starters last year, including two on defense.

But now Andersen has more of his players in place and 13 starters and 47 lettermen returning while losing only 17 letter winners. The Beavers go from an inexperienced team to one that now has eight projected senior starters. I look for them to surprise some folks this season and to be much more competitive than last year.

Andersen brought Utah State transfer Darell Garretson with him to Corvallis. He completed 67% of his passes for 1,140 yards with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio in 2014 while making four starts with the Aggies. He then sat out last season and now Garretson will guide what should be one of the most improved offenses in the country. Garretson was very impressive in the spring and should build off of that.

Oregon State has won three of its last four road openers. Five of Minnesota’s six wins last season came by 9 points or less, so it isn’t used to blowing teams out. Andersen is 17-6 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached. Andersen is 22-10 ATS in his career in non-conference games.

It’s also worth noting that Minnesota’s leading rusher last year was Shannon Brooks (709 yards, 7 TD, 6.0/carry), and he’s doubtful Thursday with a foot injury.  Bet Oregon State Friday.

15* CFB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +16

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are coming off a magical 2015 season in which they went 12-2 and won the Conference USA title.  It was their first 12-win season since 2002 when they won the FCS title.

It's safe to say that the Hilltoppers are now way overvalued heading into 2016.  I'll gladly fade them now as they go from 16 returning starters last year down to 12 this season.

The key loss for the Hilltoppers is C-USA Offensive Player of the Year Brandon Doughty, who threw for 5,055 yards and 48 touchdowns against nine interceptions last year.  Doughty shattered the career passing yards mark at WKU with 12,855 yards.  He's one of those guys who is irreplaceable, and the Hilltoppers won't be nearly as good without him.

Another big concern is that WKU goes from having nine returning starters on D last year to just four returning starters this year.  They had only four starters back on D in 2014 when they gave up 39.9 points and 510 yards per game, but dropped to 25.9 and 405 last year with an experienced D.  They'll get back to giving up boat loads up points in 2016.

Rice is certainly a team primed for a bounce-back year after going 5-7 last season.  They had gone a combined 18-9 the previous two seasons, but they had just nine starters back last year and it was a rebuilding season.

David Bailiff is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and now he'll be working with one of his better teams at Rice.  The Owls return 16 starters and 52 lettermen while losing only 17 letter winners.  This is a team that I fully expect to challenge for the C-USA title in 2016.

The biggest improvement for Rice will come on defense as they had just three returning starters last year and gave up 35.8 points and 447 yards per game.  But now they return nine starters on D and each of their top seven tacklers. In fact, this will be one of the most improved stop units in the country.

The offense figures to be improved as well with four veteran running backs, six of the top seven receivers returning, and an improved offensive line.  The key will be getting better QB play, which shouldn't be a problem after inconsistency last year.  Senior Tyler Stehling has been waiting for his time and this will be his year after throwing for 479 yards in 10 games as a back-up previously.

Most will look at WKU's 49-10 win over Rice last season and think the Hilltoppers will run away with it.  But a closer look shows that the Owls gave away that game by losing the turnover battle 5-0.  I expect this opener to be much more competitive and for the Owls to stay within two touchdowns.  Take Rice Thursday.

20* Cal/Hawaii 2016 CFB Season Opener on Hawai'i +20

Last season set up perfectly for the Cal Golden Bears to have their best year of the Sonny Dykes era. They had a whopping 17 returning starters, including eventual No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff at quarterback. They made the most of it and went 8-5 overall.

But now Dykes will be rebuilding in his 4th year here. The Golden Bears lose a whopping 29 players who contributed in 2015, including Goff and his top six receivers. They went from being the #3 most experienced team in the country last year to #119 this year. They return just nine starters in all.

While the losses on offense are huge, the lack of proven playmakers on defense are just as big. The Golden Bears have lost each of their top six tacklers from last year after SS Damariay Drew tore his ACL in the spring and is out for the year. They are going to have a hard time stopping anyone this season.

It’s certainly hard to be too high on Hawai’i coming into 2016 after going a combined 11-39 over the past four seasons. However, I like the new head coach in Nick Rolovich, who had some great offenses at Nevada after spending the past four years as their coordinator. The new defensive coordinator is Kevin Lampa, who has a whopping 42 years of coaching experience.

The cupboard certainly isn’t bare for the Warriors, who return 15 starters and 46 lettermen while losing only 18 letter winners. The offense figures to be much better under Rolovich’s tutelage with the experience that returns.

Senior QB Ikaika Woolsey has been named the starter. He has made 19 starts in his career here and should be primed for his best season yet. Leading rusher Paul Harris (1,132 yards, 6 TD, 5.7/carry last year) is back, as are each of the top three receivers from a year ago. Four starters return along the offensive line as well. I look for this unit to have plenty of success against an inexperienced Cal defense.

Hawai’i has been a great bet in Week 1 each of the past five seasons, going a perfect 5-0 ATS during that stretch against five straight Pac-12 opponents. It beat Colorado 34-17 as 6-point home favorites in 2011, covered as 42-point dogs at USC in a 10-49 loss in ’12, covered as 23-point home dogs to USC in a 13-30 loss in ’13, nearly upset Washington as 17-point home dogs in a 16-17 loss in ’14, and upset Colorado 28-20 as 7-point home dogs in ’15.

The Warriors are 21-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season since 1992. The Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Pac-12 foes.  Bet Hawai'i Friday.

20* Alabama/Clemson National Championship No-Brainer on Clemson +7

Deshaun Watson is exactly the type of quarterback that Alabama has struggled against through the years. He can beat you with his arms and his legs, and I look for him to make enough plays to keep the Tigers in this game for four quarters. The Tigers weren’t getting any respect as underdogs against Oklahoma when they dominated in a 37-17 victory, and they’re certainly not getting respect as touchdown dogs here in the title game.

Watson is completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 3,704 yards with 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while also rushing for 1,032 yards and 12 scores. He probably feels like he got snubbed out of the Heisman Trophy, which went to Alabama’s Derrick Henry. So not only will the Tigers be motivated as underdogs, they’ll also get an inspired effort from Watson here as he looks to make a statement.

While the edge on defense goes to the Crimson Tide in this one, there’s no denying that the edge on offense clearly belongs to the Tigers. They are putting up 38.4 points and 511.7 yards per game against teams that only give up 25.3 points and 379 yards per game. Alabama averages 34.4 points and 423.8 yards per game against teams that give up 24.9 points and 365 yards per game.

But it’s not like the Tigers are slouches on defense. They are allowing 20.0 points and 302.0 yards per game against teams that average 29.5 points and 398 yards per game. They also give up just 4.7 per play against teams that average 6.0 per play. Stopping Henry and Alabama's rushing attack will be key for the Tigers, and they are equipped to do it. They give up just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that average 190 yards per game and 4.8 per carry.

Alabama’s defense has put up great numbers this season, but it has faced some awful offenses here down the stretch. Its last four games have come against Michigan State, Florida, Auburn and Charleston Southern. The Crimson Tide will be taking a big step up in competition here as Clemson has one of the best offenses in the land. In fact, this will be the best offense that Alabama has seen all season. Ole Miss was the next-best offense it has faced, and it gave up 43 points in a loss to the Rebels.

Clemson is 30-14 ATS in its last 44 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Crimson Tide are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games. Clemson is 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  Bet Clemson Monday.

15* WVU/Arizona State Cactus Bowl BAILOUT on Arizona State +1

For starters, this will be a home game for the Arizona State Sun Devils.  Indeed, the Cactus Bowl will be played at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe.  Not only do I believe the Sun Devils will have a massive home-field advantage as a result, I also believe they are the better team anyway, and they should not be underdogs.

The Sun Devils are a much better team than their 6-6 record would indicate, but that record has them undervalued heading into the bowl season.  Big things were expected of this team as they returned 16 starters this year and were expected to compete for a Pac-12 South title.

But the Sun Devils had some poor fortune in close games this year.  They lost by 2 at California and by 6 in overtime at home to Oregon despite outgaining the Ducks by 241 yards in a complete fluke loss.  They did go on the road and beat UCLA 38-23 to flash their potential, and they played much better at home this season than on the road.  The beat Arizona (52-37), Washington (27-17) and Colorado (48-23) at home within the Pac-12 with their only losses coming to USC and Oregon.

While Arizona State has four wins against bowl teams (New Mexico, UCLA, Washington, Arizona) this year, West Virginia only has two wins (Georgia Southern, Texas Tech) against bowl teams.  And one of those was a lackluster 31-26 home win over Texas Tech.

The Mountaineers lost to all of the best teams they played this season.  None of them were close, either.  They lost by 20 to Oklahoma, by 7 to Oklahoma State, by 24 to Baylor and by 30 to TCU.  They also lost their season finale 23-24 to Kansas State.  I just believe this team is getting too much respect from oddsdmakers despite having not done anything this season.

This is a great matchup for the Sun Devils, too.  Their strength defensively is stopping the run, while WVU's strength offensively is running the ball.  WVU averages 235 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  But the Sun Devils only give up 125 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams who average 193 yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  They will be up to the task of stopping the run here.

West Virginia is 0-9 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992.  It is losing in these spots by 6.1 points per game despite being the favorite in all nine.  The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.  They are losing in this spot by 12.5 points per game.

WVU is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss to a conference opponent.  The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  ASU is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a road cover where it lost straight up as an underdog.  Off that 2-point loss at Cal, the Sun Devils will be motivated to finish the season with a winning record instead of dropping to 6-7.  Take Arizona State Saturday.

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +6.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions head into the bowl season undervalued because they have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  Meanwhile, the Georgia Bulldogs come into the bowl season overvalued after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Those finishes to the regular season have forced oddsmakers to set this line higher than it should be because they know that the betting public wants nothing to do with Penn State right now.

The 16-55 loss to Michigan State certainly leaves an eye sore.  But a closer look at that game shows that it wasn't nearly as big of a blowout as the final score showed.  The Nittany Lions gave away that game by committing four turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns.  They were only outgained by the Spartans 418-436 for the game, or by 18 total yards.  The difference was clearly the turnovers.  But the Nittany Lions had only committed 13 turnovers in 11 games prior to that contest, so it was an aberration, and don't expect it to become a pattern now.

That finish to the season will certainly have the Nittany Lions extra motivated coming into this bowl game.  They want to right the ship and end the season on a winning note, and you can bet that head coach James Franklin will have his players ready to go on January 2nd as a result.  Franklin owns a 3-0 career record in bowl games, so he knows how to get his players prepared the right way.  While you can't question the motivation of the Nittany Lions, you can certainly question the motivation of the Bulldogs.

Indeed, Georgia will have an interim head coach for this game after Mark Richt was fired.  Richt has left the program to go coach at his alma mater in Miami.  The Bulldogs hired former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart.  Not only will Georgia be without Richt, it will also be without defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, who took over Smart's previous role as the defensive coordinator at Alabama.  Plus, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer won't coach in the bowl game either, leaving Georgia with a patchwork staff leading up to the game.

Receivers coach Bryan McClendon will take over as the interim coach, and I just cannot see this going well for the Bulldogs.  Few bowl teams undergo this many changes to their staff.  Losing your head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator is almost impossible to overcome.  You can see why this is my favorite play of the bowl season, ranked as my 25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR!

I was not impressed with the way the Bulldogs closed out the season even though they won four straight.  Their wins came against Kentucky, Auburn, Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech.  They only beat Auburn by 7, needed overtime to beat Georgia Southern at home, and only beat Georgia Tech by 6.  While they may find a way to win this game, too, asking them to do so by a touchdown or more to beat us is asking too much.

The Bulldogs just don't have the firepower on offense to put away the Nittany Lions.  They have been held to an average of just 14.8 points per game at the end of regulation in their last six games overall.  They were held to 3 by Florida, 9 by Missouri, 13 by Georgia Tech and 17 by Georgia Southern in four of those games.  It's not going to get any easier for this Georgia offense against a Penn State defense that is one of the best units in the country.

The Nittany Lions only allow 21.7 points, 325 yards per game and 4.8 per play against teams that average 28.3 points, 386 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  I know the Penn State offense has struggled like Georgia, but the extra bowl practice will help the offensive line work on its problems.  Plus, QB Christian Hackenburg wants one big performance here to improve his draft stock after it plummeted throughout the regular season.

Penn State also falls into a proven bowl system that tells us to bet on teams entering the bowl season on an extended losing streak.  Since 1984, teams entering bowls on at least a three-game losing streak are 27-15 ATS, including 16-8 ATS if their opponent is coming off a straight up win.  The Nittany Lions are the only team that qualifies this year.  These teams on 3-game skids have been consistently undervalued.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Oklahoma State Sugar Bowl BAILOUT on Ole Miss -7

The Oklahoma State Cowboys might be the biggest frauds in all of college football.  Yes, they had a chance to win the Big 12 in the season finale, but their true colors showed against the best teams they played this season.  Let's also not forget that this team struggled to beat suspect competition with an 11-point win over Central Michigan, a 3-point win over Texas, a 2-point win over Kansas State and a 4-point win over Iowa State.

But the most telling story about the Cowboys is their performance against the top three teams in the Big 12 in TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma.  They gave up 29 points and 663 yards to TCU, 45 points and 700 yards to Baylor, and 58 points and 524 yards to Oklahoma.  So, against those three teams, they allowed averages of 44.0 points and 629.0 yards per game.

Conversely, Ole Miss is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It was the only team to beat Alabama this season, and it even did so in Tuscaloosa.  The Rebels had some mental lapses in a few losses this season to Memphis, Florida and Arkansas, but this is easily the second-best team in the SEC.  It took a fluke fourth-and-25 lateral play in overtime by Arkansas to beat the Rebels, and had they won that game, the Rebels would be your 2015 SEC champs.

Oklahoma State's suspect defense now has to go up against what I believe to be the best offense in the SEC.  The Rebels average 40.2 points, 515 yards per game and 7.0 per play against teams that give up 29.6 points, 402 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  They put up 43 points on Alabama, 52 on Arkansas, 38 on LSU and 38 on Mississippi State.  I would say that is getting it done against those four defenses.

Plus, it's not like the Rebels are slouches defensively.  They have a well above-average defense that gives up 22.8 points, 387 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that average 28.1 points, 406 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  They will be up against a good-but-not-great Oklahoma State offense that average 6.5 yards per play against teams that allow 5.9 per play.

Oklahoma State only beat only one ranked team this season (TCU), and it was outgained by 207 yards by the Horned Frogs.  Ole Miss beat four ranked teams at the time they played them in Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State and Texas A&M.  The return of future first-round pick Laremy Tunsil at left tackle late in the year gave the Rebels' offensive line a boost, and I look for this offense to shred Oklahoma State's suspect defense while putting up a big number in this one.

Ole Miss has done very well when oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game.  The Rebels are 6-0 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 points over the last three seasons, winning these games by an average of 24.3 points per game.  The Rebels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games with a total set of 63 or higher as well.  Oklahoma State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games.  The Rebels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Ole Miss is 24-8-1 ATS in its last 33 non-conference games.  Roll with Ole Miss Friday.

20* Iowa/Stanford Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Iowa +7

Iowa didn't get much respect all season, and that certainly hasn't changed here as the oddsmakers have pegged them as 7-point underdogs to the Stanford Cardinal.  They were 27 seconds away from a 13-0 season and a trip to the four-team playoff, but they still aren't getting any credit.  Look for the Hawkeyes to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this game against Stanford as a result.

The Hawkeyes have never won the Rose Bowl, so they certainly won't be lacking any motivation anyways.  Fans are so excited that they are forking over some large cash to make the trip to Pasadena, and there will be more black and gold there than Cardinal fans as a result.  The Hawkeyes are expected to get at least 60,000 fans to Pasadena for their first Rose Bowl in 25 years.

Stanford lost 6-16 at Northwestern, while Iowa beat Northwestern 40-10 on the road.  That right there gives these teams a common opponent that lets you know that the Hawkeyes should not only be able to hang with the Cardinal, but to pull off the upset, too.  The Big Ten in general just never gets much respect from anyone outside of Ohio State.  But they have been a great bet in bowl games in recent years because of this false public perception of them.

This is a great matchup for the Hawkeyes.  They won't be overmatched athletically like they would be if, say, USC was the opponent in the Rose Bowl.  Both the Hawkeyes and Cardinal are similar teams who run the ball and stop the run, it's just that I believe the Hawkeyes do it better.

Iowa rushed for 192 yards per game while Stanford rushed for 225 per game.  So, the key is going to be which teams stops the run better.  The Hawkeyes only allow 115 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, while the Cardinal give up 146 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  Overall, the Hawkeys give up 18.5 points, 334 yards per game and 4.8 per play, while the Cardinal give up 23.1 points, 375 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

The Hawkeyes are a tough team to blow out because they play such sound football.  They run the ball, stop the run, and take care of the football, and CJ Beathard is a better quarterback than he gets credit for.  You know when you bet the Hawkeyes that they aren't going to beat themselves.  They have only committed 14 turnovers in 13 games this season.  Conversely, they have forced 26 turnovers this year for a +12 differential.  CJ Bethard has thrown 15 touchdown passes against four interceptions in 13 games this year, while also rushing for 270 yards and six scores.

Iowa got some good news prior to the Rose Bowl with a healthy return of running back Jordan Canzeri, who was knocked out of the 13-16 loss to Michigan State early with an ankle injury.  While the Hawkeyes have two other capable backs in LeShun Daniels (609 yards, 8 TD) and Akrum Wadley (463 yards, 6.3 per carry, 7 TD), Canzeri (976 yards, 5.5/carry, 12 TD) is their most complete back.  Whoever is running the football should find plenty of success against a Stanford defense that allows 4.6 yards per carry.

Iowa is 8-1 ATS in road games after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games vs. teams who score 37 or more points per game.  Iowa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. teams who average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Kirk Ferentz is 33-11 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game as the head coach at Iowa.  Take Iowa Friday.

20* Tennessee/Northwestern Outback Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -8

We saw last year in the bowl game how Tennessee crushed Iowa 45-28 in a game that wasn't even that close.  It was yet another example of a Big Ten team being outmatched athletically by an SEC team.  The Volunteers used their team speed and did whatever they wanted to offensively against the Hawkeyes.  I look for this one to play out exactly the same way as Northwestern doesn't have the athletes to match up.

I was very high on Tennessee coming into the season because this was Butch Jones' most talented team yet, and a team that returned 18 starters.  The Volunteers didn't disappoint, because believe it or not, they nearly went 12-0 this year.  All four of their losses came by 7 points or less.  They just had some bad fortune in close games against some of the best teams in the country.

The Vols lost in double-overtime 24-31 to Oklahoma after blowing a 17-3 lead in the 4th quarter.  They lost 20-24 to Arkansas after blowing a 14-0 lead.  They lost 27-28 to Florida after blowing a 27-14 lead in the final five minutes.  And they lost 14-19 at Alabama after holding a 14-13 lead with under three minutes to play.  As you can see, they played two playoff teams in Oklahoma & Alabama right down to the wire, a solid Arkansas team, and SEC East champ Florida. They easily could have won all four of those games.

But instead of being down about their poor fortune in those close games, the Volunteers got pissed off and played their best football of the season down the stretch.  They went 5-0 in their last five games overall with a 31-point win over Kentucky, a 3-point win over South Carolina, a 24-point win over North Texas, an 11-point win at Missouri and a 25-point win over Vanderbilt.

Northwestern might be the most overrated team in the country with its No. 13 ranking.  Oddsmakers agree in listing the 23rd-ranked Vols as 8-point favorites here.  The Wildcats have been winning ugly all season.  That works against suspect Big Ten competition, but it does not work against good teams.  That was evident in the 38-0 loss at Michigan and the 40-10 home loss to Iowa.  But the Wildcats are in for their stiffest challenge yet here because of the disadvantage they'll be at athletically.

Both teams have solid defenses as the Vols give up 21.2 points per game while the Wildcats surrender 16.4 points per game.  The Wildcats would have had a hard time only giving up 21.2 points per game against the schedule that Tennessee played.  So even though the Wildcats have the better numbers defensively, I don't believe they are the better defensive team.

The one thing that can't be argued is that Tennessee is head and shoulders better than Northwestern on offense.  The Vols put up 34.3 points per game this season.  The Wildcats managed to win 10 games despite only averaging 20.7 points, 333 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play this year.  Once the Wildcats get behind in this one, they aren't going to have the firepower to catch up, just as Iowa didn't against Tennessee in last year's bowl game.

Tennessee just beat Vanderbilt 53-28 in the season finale.  That is a Vanderbilt team that plays a similar style to Northwestern, relying on great defense to make up for suspect offense.  Well, the Vols racked up 53 points and 527 total yards on that good Vanderbilt defense, and the Commodores couldn't do anything to catch up.  The Wildcats average 13 completions, 50.2% passing and 139 passing yards per game this season.  That's not going to get it done.

I'd much rather put my money on Joshua Dobbs and this Tennessee offense.  Dobbs has thrown for 2,125 yards and 15 touchdowns against five interceptions, while also rushing for 623 yards and nine scores.  Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara give the Vols a great 1-2 punch in the backfield.  Hurd has rushed for 1,155 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Kamara has chipped in 645 yards and six scores while averaging 6.7 per carry.  Bet Tennessee Friday.

15* Michigan State/Alabama Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Alabama -9.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are on a mission heading into the four-team playoff.  Nick Saban is on record of saying that this team is a lot more focused than last year's squad that lost to eventual national champion, Ohio State.  I believe the business-like approach they are taking will have them ready to make easy work of the overmatched Michigan State Spartans in the Cotton Bowl.

This is big brother vs. little brother.  Mark Dantonio worked under Nick Saban before getting the job at Michigan State.  Dantonio calls Saban his mentor.  And while he has had success running a similar program to Saban at Alabama, he just doesn't do it quite as well.  That was evident a few years back when Saban's Alabama team crushed Michigan State 49-7 in the 2011 Capital One Bowl.  Another beat down can be expected here.

Alabama is back to having the best defense in the country.  It gives up just 14.4 points, 258 yards per game and 4.1 per play against teams that average 28.7 points, 398 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  The going is going to be very tough for Connor Cook and a Michigan State offense that is only averaging 397 yards per game and 5.6 per play against teams that give up 389 yards per game and 5.6 per play.

This is just an average Michigan State offense, and Cook doesn't have enough playmakers outside to have any kind of success against this Alabama defense.  The Spartans don't run the football well as they average just 4.0 yards per carry against teams that give up 4.3 per carry.  That won't change against an Alabama defense that allows 74 rushing yards per game and 2.4 per carry against teams that average 173 yards per game and 4.4 per carry.  The Crimson Tide have the best front seven in the country.

Alabama's offense has been better than it gets credit for, too.  It is putting up 34.1 points, 423 yards per game and 5.8 per play against teams that only give up 25.2 points, 366 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry just keeps getting better as the games get bigger.  He has rushed for 1,986 yards and 23 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry.  He had 189 against Florida, 271 against Auburn, 204 against Mississippi State and 210 against LSU in his last four SEC games.

Michigan State was so fortunate to even make the four-team playoff.  It needed a miracle punt block TD on the final play of the game to beat Michigan, needed to control the ball for almost 40 minutes to beat Ohio State by 3, and needed a last-second TD to beat Iowa.  It also let poor teams like Rutgers (31-24) and Purdue (24-21) hang around.  Now the Spartans face by far their stiffest test of the season in the Cotton Bowl, and I believe they will be exposed.

Alabama's loss to Ole Miss early in the season may have been the best team that could happen to this team.  It got them refocused and back to playing the best football in the country.  The Crimson Tide won each of their final 10 games of the season with nine of those wins coming by double-digits.  They aren't about to let up now.

Alabama beat Wisconsin 35-17 on a neutral field in the season opener and outgained the Badgers 502-268, or by 234 total yards.  That win improved the Crimson Tide to 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records.  The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Take Alabama Thursday.

20* Clemson/Oklahoma Orange Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3.5

I believe Oklahoma is the most complete team in the playoff.  It has been dominant on both sides of the football, and it comes in playing better than anyone in the country.  The Sooners have gone 7-0 in their last seven games overall with six of those wins coming by double-digits.  What makes that most impressive is that the Sooners played their toughest Big 12 opponents down the stretch.

They went on the road and beat Baylor 44-34, topped TCU 30-29 at home in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed, and then went on the road and beat Oklahoma State 58-23 in its final three games of the season.  The Sooners have outgained seven straight opponents, including five of them by 146 or more total yards.

The offense is putting up 45.7 points per game, 543 yards per game and 7.0 per play against opposing defenses that allow 30.8 points, 440 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  Baker Mayfield deserved to be in the Heisman Trophy discussion as this guy just makes all the plays.  He is completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 3,389 yards with 35 touchdowns against five interceptions.  He has also rushed for 420 yards and seven scores as he's an underrated runner.

While the offensive improvement behind Mayfield has been a big reason for Oklahoma's success, it's the defense that doesn't get enough credit.  The Sooners had the best defense in the Big 12 this season.  They allowed just 20.7 points per game, 352 yards per game and 4.7 per play against opposing offenses that averaged 33.5 points, 455 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  This is one of the top defenses in the country.

Clemson played in the much weaker ACC this season.  It put up 38.5 points per game this year, which is less than Oklahoma.  It is right on par with Oklahoma in terms of scoring defense at 20.2 points per game, but not when you consider that opposing offenses faced only averaged 28.7 points per game.  The Tigers played a much easier slate of opposing offenses, and I believe their defense has been overrated all season because of it.

I was not impressed with the Tigers down the stretch.  They went 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They failed to cover the 12.5-point spread in a 10-point win over FSU, only beat Syracuse by 10 as a 30-point favorite, only beat Wake Forest by 20 as a 29-point favorite, and only beat South Carolina by 5 as a 20.5-point favorite.  They did cover the 6.5-point spread in an 8-point win over UNC in the ACC Championship Game, but if the refs had not called a phantom offsides penalty on the Tar Heels on an onside kick that they recovered, that result might have been different.

This Clemson defense is not as good as it gets credit for.  It faced plenty of mediocre offensive teams and gave up a lot of points this season.  Over their final six games, the Tigers allowed 41 points to NC State, 27 to Syracuse, 32 to South Carolina and 37 to UNC.  That's not a championship defense like the one Oklahoma has.  Plus, the Sooners played the toughest non-conference schedule of any of the bowl teams with games against fellow bowl teams in Akron, Tennessee & Tulsa.

Oklahoma wants revenge from the blowout bowl loss to Clemson last year, which is added motivation.  Oklahoma is 7-0 ATS in road games off a win by 21 or points points over the last two seasons.  Clemson is 8-20 ATS off five or more consecutive wins since 1992.  Plays on any team (OKLAHOMA) - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after a win by 35 or more points are 39-11 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Oklahoma Thursday.

15* Wisconsin/USC Holiday Bowl BAILOUT on USC -3

One of my favorite tools for handicapping bowl games is strength of schedule.  Well, Holiday Bowl between USC and Wisconsin is one of the biggest SOS mismatches of the bowl season.  The Trojans played the 3rd-toughest schedule in the country, while the Badgers played the 70th-toughest.

USC has played Stanford (twice), Notre Dame, Utah, Oregon and UCLA among others.  It's amazing that the Trojans managed to win the tough Pac-12 South division with the schedule they had to endure.  They were competitive in almost every game they played, too, and they are certainly a more talented team than the Badgers.

Wisconsin went 9-3 this year, but it clearly wasn't as good as its record.  It lost to the three best teams it played in Alabama, Iowa (at home) and Northwestern (at home).  Its nine wins came against Miami Ohio, Troy, Hawaii, Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers, Maryland and Minnesota.  All nine of those teams finished with losing records.

USC is far and away the superior offensive team in this one.  It averages 34.9 points, 449.6 yards per game and 6.3 per play against teams that give up 28.5 points, 416 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  Wisconsin only averages 27.1 points, 377 yards per game and 5.3 per play against teams that give up 27.3 points, 383 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

Senior QB Cody Kessler wants to end his career a winner.  He is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,315 yards with 28 touchdowns and only six interceptions this season.  The Trojans also boast a two-headed monster at running back in Ronald Jones (940 yards, 6.5/carry, 8 TD) and Justin Davis (875 yards, 5.6/carry, 5 TD).

This was not a typical season for Wisconsin offensively.  The Badgers rushed for 320 yards per game and 6.9 per carry last year, but fell all the way down to 148 per game and 3.8 per carry this season.  They will struggle to move the ball against a USC defense that is better than advertised.  The Trojans give up 25.9 points, 401 yards per game and 5.7 per play against teams that average 34.5 points, 452 yards per game and 6.2 per play.

Clay Helton got his long-term contract from the Trojans and there is now some stability with the program, finally.  He led them to a bowl win last year.  Wisconsin's Paul Chryst is just 1-2 in bowl games as a head coach.  USC is one of my favorite teams to back off a loss.  The Trojans are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss, coming back to win by 18.3 points per game.  Take USC Wednesday.

20* Louisville/Texas A&M Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Texas A&M +4.5

The oddsmakers opened Texas A&M as 3-point favorites for this Music City Bowl over Louisville.  Now, with the news that quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray have transferred, they've moved this line a whopping 7.5 points to Texas A&M +4.5.  I would still like the Aggies at -3, and I certainly love them catching 4.5 points here.

Now the Aggies will be playing with a chip on their shoulder in the role of the underdog.  They will be going with junior college transfer Jake Hubenak as their starter, and I like what I'm hearing about this kid.  I actually think this may be addition by subtraction not only for this game, but for the long run for the Aggies.

Allen and Murray were two quarterbacks who were promised playing time by the staff, which is why they were both so frustrated when they couldn't get that playing time consistently.  It's no surprise that they transferred.  They are two players who just want everything given to them instead of earning it, and they certainly didn't earn the playing time they were given.

Hubenak grew up wanting to be an Aggie and then earned his way up.  He went 19-1 as a starter in high school.  He walked on at Oklahoma State and played last season at Blinn College, where he threw for 4,052 yards and 47 touchdowns.  Breaking in new quarterbacks is nothing new for Kevin Sumlin.  Jameil Showers and Matt Davis left the program in 2013, while Kenny Hill and Matt Joeckel left in 2014.  This is a system where you can almost plug in any quarterback.

"I've said all along that I think he could get the job done for us," center Mike Matthews said of Hubenak. "He's been put in that role now and I have no doubt that he will do great for us. It helps that he's an easy guy to rally around. He's a hard-working guy and the team likes him a lot. It's kind of hard not to get along with him and it's easy to follow his lead."

The good news for Hubenak is he has boatloads of talent around him, so he won't be asked to do too much.  Sumlin has recruited very well along the offensive line and at the skill positions.  In fact, this is one of the most talented receiver corps in the country.  All Hubenak needs to do is get the ball into his playmakers' hands in space, and they will do the work for him.

Plus, the Aggies have the best defense that they've had in the Sumlin era.  The addition of former LSU coordinator John Chavis has made a huge difference.  The Aggies are only giving up 21.6 points, 367.2 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 27.8 points, 403 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  This is actually one of the better defenses in the SEC now.

They thrive against the pass, allowing just 161 passing yards per game and 5.8 per attempt on the season.  They are 20th in the nation in sacks per game (2.75), which doesn't bode well for a Louisville offense that ranks 126th in the country in sacks allowed  per game (3.67).

Louisville doesn't wow you offensively as it averages a mediocre 28.8 points, 406 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  Its defense is above average, but it is still giving up 24.3 points per game against teams that average 26.3.  The Aggies played a much tougher schedule this season and will be more battle-tested than the Cardinals.  They will also have a lot more talent on the field as they have 10 NFL prospects to Louisville's 5.  Bet Texas A&M Wednesday.

20* Baylor/UNC Russell Athletic Bowl ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina -3

The Baylor Bears were picked by many to win the Big 12 this year with aspirations of playing in the four-team playoff after finishing No. 5 in the playoff rankings at the end of the regular season last year.  But injuries really hurt this team, their season ended with back-to-back losses to TCU and Texas.

That loss to Texas was real bad because it was at home and the Bears were 21-point favorites.  Now the Bears want no part of this Russell Athletic Bowl after expectations were to win the Big 12 and play in a much bigger bowl game coming into the season.  Plus, the Bears don't have the manpower now.

The Bears are down to third-string quarterback Chris Johnson, who did not play well at all in the final two games.  They are without star receiver Corey Coleman, who won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's top receiver.  His 1,363 receiving yards and FBS-best 20 touchdown receptions will be missed.  Also out is star running back Shock Linwood, who rushed for 1,329 yards and 6.8 per attempt.

North Carolina went 11-2 this season and won the ACC Coastal.  The Tar Heels nearly upset No. 1 Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, and if not for a fluke offsides penalty on an onside kick that they recovered, they may have beaten the Tigers.  Now they'll be going for their 12th win, and senior QB Marquise Williams certainly wants to go out with a victory.

Williams led an offense that puts up 40.9 points and 486.9 yards per game.  He threw for 2,829 yards and 21 touchdowns, while also rushing for 867 yards and 11 scores.  There's no question that the Tar Heels are going to be the much better offensive team in this one.  Plus, Elijah Hood rushed for 1,345 yards and 17 touchdowns this season, so this is a balanced attack.

While the UNC offense is explosive, the improvement on defense was the biggest reason for the turnaround for the Tar Heels.  They only give up 22.6 points per game against teams that average 25.8 points per game.  They also only allow 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 5.5 per play.  This is now an above-average defense, and a lot of the credit has to go to first-year coordinator Gene Chizik.

Baylor is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games off three consecutive games where it committed three or more turnovers.  The Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams with winning records.  The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Baylor coach Art Briles is 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in bowl games.  Bet North Carolina Tuesday.

15* CMU/Minnesota Quick Lane Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Central Michigan +6

The Central Michigan Chippewas will be happy to be bowling in their home start of Michigan.  They will have a nice home-field advantage here as they get to play this Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit inside of Ford Field, the home of the NFL's Lions.

Central Michigan was better than its 7-5 record would indicate.  Its five losses came to Oklahoma State (by 11), Syracuse (by 3), Michigan State (by 20), Western Michigan (by 2) and Toledo (by 5).  It actually went 4-1 ATS in those five games, which were against five of the best teams that it played.

The Chippewas actually outgained Michigan State by 16 yards despite losing by 20.  They also outgained Western Michigan by 5 yards and Syracuse by 194.  They were only outgained by 78 yards by Toledo and by 77 yards against Oklahoma State, so they really showed that they could play with all five of those teams.

Now the Chippewas are up against a 5-7 Minnesota team that doesn't even deserve to be playing in a bowl game.  But since it's a team from the Power 5, the Chippewas will certainly be up for this game.

"I think it's a big help from a confidence standpoint," first-year coach John Bonamego told the school's official website. "I think our guys feel like we can play with anybody and they've demonstrated that this year. This is another opportunity to go toe-to-toe with a Power 5 opponent and show that we belong in Division I."

Four of Minnesota's five wins this year came by single-digits, including three 3-point wins against Colorado State (23-20), Kent State (10-7) and Ohio (10-7).  If those three teams can play with the Golden Gophers, there's no question that the Chippewas can as well.

The Chippewas are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Central Michigan is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Chippewas are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Central Michigan is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 vs. Big Ten foes.  The Golden Gophers are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.  Minnesota is 0-7 in its last seven postseason games with its last win coming in 2004.  Take Central Michigan Monday.

15* CFB Bowl Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +14

The fact that this is Frank Beamer's last game as head coach at Virginia Tech has the Hokies way overvalued against Tulsa in the Independence Bowl.  While the Hokies will likely give Beamer a win in his final game, they have no business being two-touchdown favorites with the way that they have played this year.

The Hokies needed a 23-20 win at Virginia just to get bowl eligible in their season finale.  They were thoroughly outplayed by the Cavaliers in that game, but found a way to win.  They were outgained 304-433 by the Cavaliers, or by 129 total yards.

There's no question that Tulsa's defense isn't very good.  They give up 38.6 points per game, but that has come against teams that average 30.3 points per game, so they've played some very good offenses this year.  Fortunately for them, the Hokies won't be one of them.

Virginia Tech only averages 367 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play against teams that give up 374 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  It is 114th in the country in yards per carry (3.6).  The Hokies play a conservative brand of football on offense, which makes it tough for them to blow teams out.  That's going to make it very difficult for them to cover this 14-point spread.

VA Tech does have a good defense, but it hasn't been as good as in year's past.  The Hokies give up 24.2 points, 354 yards per game and 5.4 per play against teams that average 37.6 points, 385 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  So, this is just a slightly above-average defense, not one that is among the best in the country.

The Hokies will have their hands full against a Toledo offense that has thrived under first-year head coach Philip Montgomery, the former Baylor offensive coordinator.  The Golden Hurricane are putting up 35.9 points, 503 yards per game and 6.0 per play against teams that give up 29.9 points, 414 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

This is an offense that put up some solid numbers against bowl teams this year.  Tulsa put up 40 points and 600 total yards against New Mexico, 38 points and 603 yards against Oklahoma, 24 points and 456 yards against Houston, 42 points and 534 yards against Memphis, and 38 points and 588 yards against Cincinnati.

Quarterback Dane Evans has thrived in Montgomery's system, completing 63 percent of his passes for 3,958 yards with 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions while averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per attempt.  The Golden Hurricane have two 700-plus yard rushers in Zack Langer and D'Angelo Brewers, who have combined for 21 touchdowns, so they aren't one-dimensional at all.

The Golden Hurricane have only been beaten by more than 14 points twice all season, which came against Memphis (by 24) and Navy (by 23).  They even stayed within 14 of Oklahoma on the road, so they clearly have proven they can play with anyone.

The Golden Hurricane are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Tulsa is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Virginia Tech is 7-15-2 ATS in its last 24 non-conference games.  The Hokies are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Roll with Tulsa in the Independence Bowl Saturday.

20* CFB Bowl Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington -8.5

Look out for the Washington Huskies to win the Pac-12 next year.  But first, they have some unfinished business after losing to Oklahoma State in their bowl game last year.  They want to finish their season the right way this time.  That shouldn't be a problem against an overmatched Southern Miss team in the Heart of Dallas Bowl.

Washington certainly earned its way into this bowl game by needing wins in its final two games to get here.  And boy did it deliver.  The Huskies beat Oregon State 52-7 on the road before topping Washington State 45-10 at home.  It's safe to say they are playing their best football of the season coming in.

Indeed, they have outgained five straight opponents.  They did lose to Arizona State by 10 and Utah by 11, but they outgained ASU by 150 yards and Utah by 35 yards and arguably should have won both games.  Their three wins have all been via blowout as they've beaten Arizona by 46, Oregon State by 45 and Washington State by 35 over their last five games.

Jake Browning is going to be a great quarterback for this program for years.  The freshman is completing 63% of his passes this season while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.  He leads a Washington offense that is putting up 37 points per game and 464 total yards per game over its last five contests.

Browning should have his way with a Southern Miss defense that allowed 45 points and 522 total yards to Western Kentucky in the Conference USA Championship.  This Southern Miss defense also has a ton of injury concerns right now after several starters left the WKU game with various injuries.

On the other side of the ball, the Huskies have the best defense in the Pac-12.  They are giving up 17.7 points and 350 yards per game against teams that average 31 points and 431 yards per game.  So, they are holding their opponents to 13.3 points per game less than their season averages.

This is a massive strength of schedule mismatch.  Washington played the 21st-toughest schedule in the country, while Southern Miss played the 135th-toughest.  The Golden Eagles lost to the four best teams they played in Mississippi State (by 18), Nebraska (by 8), Marshall (by 21) and Western Kentucky (by 17).  I believe Washington is better than all four of those teams, and I fully expect the Huskies to roll by double-digits Saturday.

Washington is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons.  It is winning by an average of 22.6 points per game in this spot.  Plays against any team (SOUTHERN MISS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points are 60-23 (72.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Washington in the Heart of Dallas Bowl Saturday.

15* UConn/Marshall Early ANNIHILATOR on Connecticut +5

The Huskies were one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They went just 2-10 in Bob Diaco's first season last year, but they managed to go 6-6 this season to get bowl eligible.  Diaco certainly has this team on the rise, and they'll be hungry to be playing in their first bowl game since 2010.

Marshall went 9-3 this year, but I wasn't impressed with this team.  The Thundering Herd play in a weak conference in Conference USA.  Their only win against a conference opponent that finished with a winning record was Southern Miss.  But they were fortunate to win that game.  They were outgained by 162 yards, had 14 first downs and 277 yards of total offense.  Southern Miss turned the ball over five times to give the game away.

When you look at what Marshall did out of conference, it was even less impressive.  The Thundering Herd lost by double-digits to a poor Ohio team.  They also needed overtime to beat Kent State, a team that went 3-9.  They were fortunate to beat Purdue at home as the Boilermakers led that game most of the way.  That's a Purdue team that went 2-10.

I think the betting public is a little stuck on this Marshall team because it went 13-1 last year.  But this isn't the same Marshall team as last year.  This is a Marshall offense that is terrible, and one that averages just 5.4 yards per play against teams that give up 5.7 yards per play, so this is a well-below average offense.

UConn boasts an elite defense that is giving up just 19.7 points per game, holding opponents to 7.1 points per game below their season averages.  They only give up 352 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play on the season.  This is expected to be a low-scoring game with both teams featuring decent defenses, so I like getting the +5 points here.

UConn also has a stud running back in Arkeel Newsome, who comes in ranked 18th in the country in all-purpose yards this year.  The Huskies are 5-1 when they rush for at least rush for at least 145 yards this season.  They should have a great chance to do just that against a Marshall defense that gives up 172 rushing yards per game against teams that only average 147 yards per game on the ground.

This is a big strength of schedule mismatch in favor of the Huskies as well.  UConn played the 69th-toughest schedule this season, while Marshall played the 138th-toughest.  As you can see, Marshall's schedule this year could not have been any easier.  The Thundering Herd lost to the best team they played in Western Kentucky by 21 points.

UConn actually beat the 14th-ranked Houston Cougars 20-17 to become bowl eligible on November 21.  That was the only loss the Cougars suffered all season.  That was the second-to-last game for the Huskies, who went on to have a letdown in their season finale at Temple, a team that needed that win to get into the AAC Championship and wanted it more.  The Huskies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. C-USA opponents.  Take UConn in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

15* Cincinnati/SDSU Hawaii Bowl BAILOUT on San Diego State -3

The San Diego State Aztecs went 10-3 this season and will be going for their first 10-game winning streak in 39 yards.  I look for them to continue their roll and to cap off a fine season with a win and cover against the inconsistent Cincinnati Bearcats in the Hawaii Bowl.

San Diego State's defense has been simply dominant this season.  It ranks first or second in the MWC in 13 different categories.  It ranks 5th nationally in total defense (287.9 yards/game), 6th in rushing D (111.2 yards/game) and 10th in scoring D (17.2 PPG).  The Aztecs held eight straight opponents to 17 points or fewer before beating Air Force in the league title game.

The Aztecs lead the nation in turnover margin (+1.46) and their 31 takeaways are the third-most in the country.  Now they'll be up against a Cincinnati team that is prone to turnovers.  The Bearcats have committed 30 turnovers this season and are -16 in turnover differential.  There's a great chance that turnovers decide this game.

Cincinnati had a late scratch at the quarterback position.  Gunner Kiel has missed the trip for undisclosed personal reasons.  That leaves freshman Hayden Moore to start.  He played well in limited action this year for a freshman with 58.5 percent completions and 1,683 yards, but he threw just nine touchdowns against eight interceptions.  This freshman will be under duress all game against SDSU's fierce pass rush, and I expect him to make plenty of mistakes with the football.

The Aztecs boast a rushing attack that averages 235 yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  Donnel Pumphrey is a game-changer.  He was the league's Offensive Player of the Year.  Pumphrey's 1,554 yards are good for 10th nationally.  He has 19 total touchdowns and 27 receptions to boot.

Pumphrey is in line for a big day against Cincinnati's horrid rush defense.  The Bearcats give up 191 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry against teams that only average 151 yards per game and 4.0 per carry.  They gave up 215 to Temple, 220 to Miami Ohio, 212 to UCF, 266 to Houston, 213 to Tulsa and 361 to South Florida.

Cincinnati is 0-8 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  It is losing by an average of 13.1 points per game in this spot.  SDSU is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games versus good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  The Aztecs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Bearcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight bowl games.  Take San Diego State in the Hawaii Bowl Thursday.

15* Boise State/NIU Poinsettia Bowl Total DOMINATOR on OVER 56

I expect a shootout in the Poinsettia Bowl between the Boise State Broncos and Northern Illinois Huskies this afternoon. For starters, the weather is going to be perfect for this bowl game at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, which will help aid the offensive fireworks.

This Boise State offense will do the heavy lifting in doing its part to get the OVER.  After all, the Broncos are putting up 37.7 points and 488.6 yards per game on the season.  Brett Rypien is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,973 yards and 17 touchdowns.  Jeremy McNichols has rushed for 1,244 yards and 18 scores.

The Huskies have been solid offensively this season, averaging 33.0 points per game.  That's very impressive when you consider they've played musical chairs at the quarterback position.  Drew Hare got hurt, Ryan Graham got hurt, and Tommy Fiedler was forced into action in the final two games of the season.  The offense did not go well under Fiedler.

But the good news is that Graham is returning at quarterback fro the bowl game as he's fully recovered from his leg injury.  And Graham didn't miss a beat in replacing Hare.  He actually averaged 8.1 yards per attempt compared to the 7.6 from Hare and the 5.9 from Fiedler.  Graham also produced 153 rushing yards in his limited action.

Neither of these defenses are playing very well coming into the bowl game.  The Huskies have allowed an average of 26.3 points and 463.7 yards per game in their last three contests.  The Broncos have been even worse, giving up 30.3 points and 498.0 yards per game in their last three.

Boise State is 6-0 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 6-0 OVER in road games off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Boise State is 10-2 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points over the last two years.  The OVER is 13-3 in Broncos last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple -1.5

The Temple Owls over the Toledo Rockets in the Boca Raton Bowl represents my strongest release of the bowl season prior to the new year.  That makes this my second-favorite bowl play of the season, only behind my 25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR, which will be coming later.  Wager accordingly.

After finishing 2-10 in 2013 and 6-6 last year while not getting selected to a bowl game, the Owls came into the season with the motto "Leave No Doubt".  They certainly left no doubt as they went 10-3 this season and were a win away from playing in a New Year's Day bowl.  Now they get to play in their first bowl game of the Matt Rhule era.

The Owls played a brutal schedule this year, too.  Their three losses came against very good teams.  They lost 20-24 at home to Notre Dame, which about made the four-team playoff.  They did have a 23-44 loss at South Florida, which is a Bulls team that is playing as well as almost anyone in the country, and that game was to get bowl eligible for the Bulls.  It was also a lookahead spot for Temple as it had Memphis on deck.

The other loss came in the AAC Championship in what turned out to be a true road game at Houston.  The Owls lost that game 13-24, but they actually outgained the Cougars by 46 yards in that contest.  They held the high-powered Cougars to just 339 yards in that loss, but two turnovers committed by their offense were their undoing.

This Temple defense is legitimately one of the top stop units in the country.  It held Notre Dame to just 24 points, Houston to 24 points, and a high-powered Memphis attack to just 12 points and 232 total yards.  The Owls only give up 19.2 points, 329.2 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that average 27.5 points, 403 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  Their defense is going to be the difference in this one.

Toledo is getting way too much credit for its 9-2 season that featured wins over Power 5 schools in Iowa State and Arkansas.  But the Rockets were outgained by 172 yards by Iowa State and only won that game in OT after the Cyclones missed a chip-shot field goal that would have won it.  They were also outgained by 197 yards in a fluke 16-12 win over Arkansas.

Temple head coach Matt Rhule is going to be on the sideline for this game after signing a new contract and seeing it through with his players that they win a bowl game after getting snubbed last year.  I trust in Bronko Nagurski Award winner Tyler Matakevich and this huge senior class at Temple to show up for this bowl game and finish the season on a high note with a win to get their 11th victory.

I do not trust the Toledo players to show up.  Head coach Matt Campbell left for Iowa State, leaving first-time coach Jason Candle to guide the Rockets.  That's one of the biggest factors in this game for me is that the Rockets have an interim coach after Campbell bailed on them.

I also like this matchup for the Owls.  The Rockets rely heavily on their running game to move the ball.  They rush for 213 yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  But the going is going to be tough against this Owls defense, which gives up just 126 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  The Owls held five of their opponents this season to season lows in yards.

Toledo is 0-7 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last there seasons.  Rhule is 9-2 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game as the coach of Temple.  The Owls are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.  The Rockets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Bet Temple Tuesday.

15* WKU/USF Miami Beach Bowl No-Brainer on South Florida +2.5

The South Florida Bulls are ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game this year.  After going a combined 6-18 in Willie Taggart's first two seasons, the Bulls put together an 8-4 campaign this year that not many saw coming.  This team was one of the most improved teams in the country, and yet they still aren't getting the respect they deserve here as underdogs to C-USA opponent Western Kentucky.

The Bulls head into this bowl game playing literally as well as almost anyone in the country.  They have won four straight and seven of their last eight.  The last four wins have been mighty impressive to say the least when you dive a little deeper into the box scores of the four games.

It started with a 22-17 win at East Carolina as 5.5-point dogs as the Bulls outgained the Pirates by 222 yards in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score.  Then came a 44-23 win over Temple as 2.5-point home dogs.  The Bulls outgained the Owls by 176 yards.  Then came a 65-27 home win over Cincinnati as 1-point dogs as the Bulls outgained the Bearcats by 131 yards.  They finished their season with a 44-3 win at UCF as 24.5-point favorites and outgained the Knights by 252 yards.

Add it all up, and this 4-0 run has seen the Bulls pull three 'upsets' while outscoring their four opponents by an average of 26.3 points per game and outgain them by an average of 195.3 yards per game.  In their last three games alone, the Bulls are putting up 52.3 points and 514.7 yards per game, while allowing just 21.0 points and 260.3 yards per game.  If that's not great football, then I don't know what is.

"The beauty is they're a young team, they're young guys, and they're learning to be that way at a young age," Taggart said. "The future is very bright here at USF."

That optimism is centered around a pair of sophomores, running back Marlon Mack (1,273 rushing yards, 8 TDs) and dynamic quarterback Quinton Flowers (883 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 21 TD passes). The duo heads a relentless rushing attack that's amassed at least 242 yards in all eight wins.

Western Kentucky also had a great season with an 11-2 record and a Conference USA Championship.  However, the difference is that C-USA isn't nearly as strong as the American Athletic.  So, Western Kentucky's wins over top C-USA teams like Marshall and Southern Miss aren't nearly as impressive as South Florida's wins over top AAC teams like Temple and Cincinnati.

We saw the Hilltoppers struggle when they stepped out of conference, which is an even bigger indication that C-USA isn't very good considering WKU is its best team.  WKU only beat Vanderbilt 14-12 and gained just 247 total yards against the Commodores.  WKU also lost to Indiana 35-38 and gave up 639 total yards to the Hoosiers.  The other loss was a 20-48 setback at LSU.

WKU is perceived to have the better offense because it put up better numbers than USF, but keep in mind it came against a much easier schedule.  I believe the way the Bulls are playing right now offensively that they are every bit as good as the Hilltoppers on that side of the ball.

But the difference is going to be USF's defense, which is better than WKU's stop unit.  The Bulls only give up 21.1 points, 361 yards per game and 5.0 per play this season.  The Hilltoppers allow 25.2 points, 389 yards per game and 5.5 per play this season.  Keep in mind the ease of the schedule in which the Hilltoppers played, too, when comparing these numbers.

South Florida is 9-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two years.  Stopping Brandon Doughty and the WKU passing attack will be key, and the Bulls have the goods to do it.  They give up just 54.5% completions, 221 passing yards per game and 6.6 yards per pass attempt.  Take South Florida Monday.

20* Arkansas State/LA Tech New Orleans Bowl BAILOUT on Louisiana Tech -1.5

Arkansas State rolled through the awful Sun Belt this season with a perfect 8-0 record.  They also went 6-2 ATS in those final eight games.  That finish has them way overvalued heading into this New Orleans Bowl against Louisiana Tech as just 1.5-point underdogs.

When the Red Wolves stepped out of conference against tougher competition, they really struggled.  They lost by 30 to Toledo and by 49 to USC en route to a 1-3 non-conference record.  Now they face the best team that they have since the non-conference in LA Tech.

The Bulldogs failed to cover the spread in their final two games this season, which I believe has them undervalued.  They have a sour taste in their mouths from a 34-point loss to Southern Miss in the finale that will have these players chomping at the bit to get back on the field and redeem themselves.  But everything that could go wrong against Southern Miss, did.  They turned the ball over 7 times to give the game away.

That loss to Southern Miss was one of four for the Bulldogs this season.  The other three all came on the road, including narrow losses to quality teams in Western Kentucky (by 3) and Kansas State (by 6, OT).  The other was a 25-point loss at SEC power Mississippi State.

LA Tech has had the opportunity to face a Sun Belt team this season, and it rolled.  The Bulldogs beat Louisiana-Lafayette by 29 and outgained the Rajin' Cajuns by 97 yards.  They won that game 43-14, limiting them to just 331 yards of total offense.  That gives LA Tech and Arkansas State a common opponent.

Arkansas State only beat Louisiana-Lafayette 37-27 on the road.  The Red Wolves won that game despite getting outgained by 50 yards by the Rajin Cajuns.  They allowed 485 total yards and were very fortunate to come away with a victory.

LA Tech played a tougher schedule than Arkansas State, yet it was still better statistically this season.  The Bulldogs are outgaining teams by 83 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play.  The Red Wolves are only outgaining teams by 51 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.

This is a great matchup for the Bulldogs.  The Red Wolves rely heavily on the run, rushing for 236 yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  But the strength of the Bulldogs is their ability to stop the run defensively.  They give up just 116 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.

This is going to be like a home game for LA Tech as it will be playing in their home state down in New Orleans.  Senior QB Jeff Driskel, who has thrown 24 touchdowns against eight interceptions while also rushing for 307 yards and five scores, wants to go out with a bang.

As does senior RB Kenneth Dixon, who has rushed for 971 yards and 22 total touchdowns this season despite missing two games with an ankle injury.  He has rushed for 4,378 yards in his career here.  His 83 career touchdowns are currently two behind Navy's Keenan Reynolds for the all-time mark, so he will certainly be determined to try and post one final big game to push Reynolds for that record.

This is a matchup of former conference rivals.  Louisiana Tech has gone 9-1 straight up in its last 10 meetings with Arkansas State with seven of those wins coming by 14 points or more.  Arkansas State is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in its last game.  LA Tech is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The Bulldogs are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* Ohio/App State Camellia Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Ohio +7.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers had a very solid 10-2 season this year.  Give them a lot of credit, but that record clearly has them overvalued heading into this Camellia Bowl against MAC opponent, Ohio.  The Mountaineers should not be favored by more than a touchdown.

After all, the Mountaineers played one of the easiest schedules in the country.  They beat Howard, Old Dominion and Wyoming out of conference, and lost by 31 to Clemson in their other non-conference game.  Their other seven wins came against Sun Belt teams, and they lost to the second-best team they played this season in Arkansas State 27-40 at home.

The Mountaineers also have a couple of shaky performances within the Sun Belt that make be believe they are going to struggle to win this game, let alone beat Ohio by more than a touchdown.  They needed overtime to beat Try 44-41 at home, and they only won 34-27 at South Alabama as 18-point favorites in their final game of the season.

Ohio played a much more difficult schedule in the MAC and came away with an 8-4 record.  After a 5-1 start, this team lost three in a row, but showed a ton of heart with how they finished the season.  That finish has me liking their chances of pulling off the upset here in the Camellia Bowl.

Indeed, this is a veteran Bobcats bunch that returned 18 starters from last year, and they weren't going to go away quietly down the stretch.  They beat Kent State 27-0 and Ball State 48-31 at home before going on the road and upsetting Northern Illinois 26-21, a team that has won three of the last five MAC titles.

In these last three games, the Bobcats are scoring 33.7 points and averaging 484.0 yards per game.  They are giving up just 17.3 points and 313.3 yards per game.  As you can see, they are outscoring opponents by 16.4 points per game and outgaining them by 171 yards per game.  They have outgained four of their last five opponents with the only exception being the 38 yards they were outgained by Bowling Green, which won the MAC this year.

The Bobcats really got their running game going down the stretch, rushing for 298.5 yards per game over their final four games.  The Mountaineers have been vulnerable against the run at times as they gave up 309 yards to Arkansas State, 218 to Wyoming and 214 to South Alabama.  The Mountaineers rush for 268 yards per game, so stopping the run will be key.  The Bobcats held Northern Illinois to just 73 rushing yards on 38 carries in their final game, and they've allowed just 109.0 rushing yards per game in their last three.

The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Ohio is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games after gaining more than 200 rushing yards in its previous game.  The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  These four trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Bobcats.  Roll with Ohio Saturday.

15* Arizona/New Mexico 2015 Bowl Season Opener on New Mexico +9

This is a classic case of a team that wants to be in their bowl game and a team that doesn't.  I'll gladly back the team that wants to be in this New Mexico Bowl, and catching 9 points is just an added bonus.

Bob Davie is in his fourth year of changing the culture at New Mexico.  After a 7-5 season, the Lobos will now be going to their fist bowl game since 2007.  They will be playing on their home field in Albuquerque, no less.

"It's a big deal for us to get in this game," Davie said. "Everyone knows the dynamics of what has gone on here to get this program back. We're getting better, and not everyone in the country can say that."

The Arizona Wildcats won 10 games in 2014 and made an appearance in the Pac-12 title game that culminated in a trip to the Fiesta Bowl.  After that performance last year, these players aren't going to be nearly as excited to be going to the New Mexico Bowl after a 6-6 season in 2015.

But they overachieved last year, and injuries really derailed them after a 3-0 start this season.  They needed a 37-30 home upset of Utah just to become bowl eligible after three straight losses, and they concluded their season with a 37-52 loss at Arizona State for four defeats in their final five games.

New Mexico has beaten some very quality teams here down the stretch.  It won 14-13 at home over Utah State as 20.5-point dogs, 31-24 at Boise State as 30.5 point dogs, and 47-35 at home against Air Force as 11-point dogs in three of its final four games.  As you can see, the Lobos relish the opportunity of playing the underdog role.

This is a great matchup for the Lobos.  They rush for 248 yards per game and 5.2 per carry, and their 37 rushing touchdowns are the sixth-most in the nation.  Arizona gives up 188 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry against teams that only average 165 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

The Wildcats have surrendered at least 30 points nine times this season and rank 10th in the Pac-12 in total defense at 463.4 yards per game.  They have really been torched on the ground here of late, giving up at least 201 rushing yards in four straight games.  New Mexico rushed for 268 against Colorado State and 377 against Air Force in its final two games of the year.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 44-18 (71%) ATS since 1992.

Arizona is 0-8 ATS after covering the spread in two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  It is losing these games by an average of 23.0 points per game.  The Lobos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win over a conference opponent as a home underdog.  Take New Mexico Saturday.

20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 53

Nothing is certain but death, taxes and Army/Navy going UNDER the total.  The UNDER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings between these teams.  Once again, the oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this 2015 meeting with this 53-point total.  This line is going to continue to drop, so make sure and get your bet in early.

Not only have Army and Navy gone UNDER the total in nine straight, they have finished with 48 or fewer combined points in all nine meetings as well.  They combined for 27 last year with a 55.5-point total.  They have averaged a combined 36.6 points per game in their last nine meetings.  That's nearly 17 points less than this 53-point total.

Numbers can be thrown out the window when these two teams play one another.  That's because it's a rivalry game, and both teams know each other like the back of their hands.  They both run the triple-option, so the defenses are used to it having practiced against their offenses on a daily basis.  There is no trickery when these teams get together.  It's simply who wants it more.

Obviously, when you know two teams are going to run the football almost every play, the clock is going to keep moving without incompletions.  Army averages 4 completions and 8 passing attempts per game, Navy averages 4 completions and 8 attempts per game.  Army runs the ball 52 times per game, Navy runs the ball 58 times per game.

Navy is very good against the run, allowing just 139 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry against teams that average 193 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Army has been better against the run than the pass.  It allows 163 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry against teams that average 156 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

Another key here is that Navy is expected to win in a blowout as the line for this game is Navy -22.  So, if Navy gets up big, it's not going to try and run up the scoreboard.  Look the Midshipmen to really slow down the pace of their offense once they get a substantial lead.

Both teams went UNDER the total when they faced another Academy school in Air Force, which also runs the triple-option.  Navy beat Air Force 33-11 for 44 combined points with a 49.5-point total on October 3rd.  Army lost to Air Force 20-3 for 27 combined points with a 50.5-point total.

Army is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings.  Army is 6-0 UNDER in road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Midshipmen's last five neutral site games.  These four trends combined for a perfect 27-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in the Army/Navy game Saturday.

15* UNC/Clemson ACC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -4

Fading Clemson has been a very profitable move here down the stretch.  It is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.  I have faded Clemson in three of those games as they failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites in a 10-point win over Florida State, as 30-point favorites in a 10-point win at Syracuse, and as 29-point favorites in a 20-point home win over Wake Forest.

The Tigers were clearly overvalued down the stretch because they were the No. 1 team in the country.  But now I believe the price is right to back them as only 4-point favorites in the ACC Championship Game against North Carolina.  They have simply come too far to lose now, and this is the smallest favorites they've been since their win over Notre Dame.

But most importantly, I believe Clemson is actually the better team.  It is outgaining its ACC opponents by 272 yards per game behind an explosive offense that is putting up 38.0 points and 536.2 yards per game.  Its defense is only giving up 19.0 points and 264.7 yards per game in ACC play as well.

North Carolina had a great season, but it took advantage of playing in one of the worst divisions in the country in the ACC Coastal and avoiding the top three teams from the Atlantic in Clemson, FSU and Louisville.  Yet, the Tar Heels only outgained their ACC opponents by 80 yards per game this season.  A lot has been made of UNC's improved defense, but it is still a below-average unit that actually allows 28 more yards per game than its opponents average on the season.

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams, too.  These teams have five opponents in common.  Clemson is 5-0 against them outscoring them by 23.4 points per game and outgaining them by a whopping 295 yards per game.  UNC is 4-1 against those same five teams, outscoring them by 17.6 points per game but outgaining them by only 74.2 yards per game.  Those numbers clearly indicate that the Tigers are by far the superior team.

The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  Clemson is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in its previous game.  Dabo Swinney is 8-1 ATS in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game as the coach of Clemson.  Swinney is 12-4 ATS in road games after scoring 37 or more points as the coach of the Tigers.  Clemson has won seven of the last nine meetings while totaling 109 points in the last two meetings.  The Tigers beat North Carolina 50-35 at home last year.  Roll with Clemson Saturday.

20* Michigan State/Iowa Big Ten Championship No-Brainer on Michigan State -3

The Iowa Hawkeyes had their best regular season in school history with a 12-0 season.  It came out of nowhere as the Hawkeyes were picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten West Division.  They deserve a lot of credit for running the table as they played very well all season and handled their business.  But their dream of making the four-team playoff will not come true as they finally face a real test in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Iowa took advantage of a very week schedule this season.  It avoided the best four teams from the Big Ten East in Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State.  It played in the Big Ten West, which was the worst division among the Power 5 conferences in my opinion.  They only beat one team that is currently ranked, which was Northwestern, which lost 38-0 to Michigan on the road.

In fact, the Hawkeyes' schedule was so easy that it was actually favored in 11 of its 12 games this season despite not having many expectations coming in.  The only game it was an underdog in, it won 10-6 at Wisconsin.  But the Hawkeyes should have never won that game.  They were outgained 221-320 by Wisconsin, or by 99 total yards.  The Badgers committed four turnovers, including one on the Iowa 1-yard line as they were going in for what would have been the game-winning score.  The Badgers are down this season anyways, so that's not as good of a win as it would have been in year's past for the Hawkeyes.

Heck, Nebraska was supposed to contend for a Big Ten West title, and it was down this season as well.  The Huskers finished just 5-7, but they arguably outplayed Iowa despite losing 20-28 last week.  Nebraska outgained Iowa 433-250 for the game, but again it committed four turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown to gift-wrap the victory for the Hawks.  Are you seeing a trend here?  Iowa needs to create turnovers to win games.

But Michigan State isn't the type of team that's going to gift-wrap the game for Iowa.  The Spartans play sound football in all phases and take care of the ball.  In fact, they have committed just 11 turnovers in 12 games this season, which is obviously less than one per game.  For Iowa to have any chance, it is going to have to win the turnover battle, but I don't see that happening against Mark Dantonio's well-coached Spartans.

While Iowa played a cake schedule, Michigan State earned its trip to the Big Ten Championship by winning one of the best divisions in the country in the Big Ten East.  It played Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State and beat all three.  It even beat both Ohio State and Michigan on the road, while thumping Penn State at home 55-16 last week.  Many will say that the Spartans were lucky to beat Michigan, but they outplayed the Wolverines in that game and outgained them by 156 yards, so I beg to differ.

Michigan State also played Oregon out of conference, which was a much tougher game than any non-conference game that Iowa played.  Iowa's toughest non-conference game came at home against Pittsburgh, and it needed a 57-yard field goal on the last play to beat the Panthers.  Michigan State played its best against its best opponents, holding Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State to 207 yards per game below their season averages.  In Iowa's two biggest games, it was outgained by 183 yards by Nebraska and 99 yards by Wisconsin.

Yes, Michigan State lost to Nebraska 39-38 on the road, but only because of a questionable call at the end of the game.  Unlike Iowa, Michigan State actually did whatever it wanted to offensively against Nebraska, gaining 491 total yards behind 335 yards and four passing touchdowns from Connor Cook.

I simply trust Cook more than Iowa's C.J. Beathard here.  Cook is a senior quarterback who has been in numerous big games before, while Beathard is a first-year starter who hasn't been tested much with the game on the line.  That's because the Hawkeyes have never trailed in the 4th quarter of any game this season.  I believe the Hawkeyes will be trailing in the 4th quarter of this one, and Beathard won't have the goods to deliver because he hasn't been in that situation before, and he certainly hasn't played in as many big games as Cook.

This is a great matchup for the Spartans.  They boast an elite run defense that gives up 118 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against opponents that average 193 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  Stopping the run will be key because Iowa averages 42 rushing attempts and 204 yards per game, compared to 26 passing attempts and 201 yards per game.  Look for Michigan State to stop the running game and take Iowa out of its comfort zone, having to lean on Beathard more than they're used to in this one.

While Iowa has struggled down the stretch in winning three of its last four games by a touchdown or less, Michigan State has saved its best football for last, especially defensively.  The Spartans held Maryland to 7 points, 289 yards and forced five turnovers three weeks ago, then held Ohio State's high-powered attack to just 14 points and 152 total yards two weeks ago, then forced four more turnovers and held Penn State to 16 points last week.  I simply believe the Spartans are playing the better football coming into this one, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that they are finally near full strength health-wise for the first time all year.

These teams have four common opponents this season.  Michigan State is averaging 424.8 yards per game and giving up 369.5 yards per game against those four teams, outgaining them by 55.3 yards per game.  Iowa is averaging 349.3 yards per game and allowing 371.5 yards per game against those four teams, actually getting outgained by 22.2 yards per game.  Common opponents suggest that the Spartans are the better team as well.

Iowa's strength defensively is stopping the run as well, but that won't be as much of a factor in this game as it is against most teams.  That's because Michigan State is a primary passing team behind Cook.  The senior has been superb, throwing for 2,720 yards and 24 touchdowns against only four interceptions this season.  He should have a big day against an Iowa defense that has been susceptible against good passing offenses.  The Hawkeyes allowed 317 passing yards to Illinois, 301 to Minnesota, 268 to Purdue and 296 to Nebraska, and the latter three games have come over the past three weeks.

Michigan state is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of greater than 75% over the last three seasons.  The Spartans are 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game over the last three years.  Michigan State is 9-0 ATS after having won four or five of its last six games over the past two seasons.  The Spartans are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Spartans.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Southern Miss +7.5

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles may be the single-most underrated team in all of college football.  They went 9-3 straight up and 10-2 against the spread for bettors who were willing to back them this season.  They also went 7-1 within the conference and won the C-USA West Title for the right to play in the conference championship game.

But the betting public still hasn't caught on to how good this team really is.  It's easy to see why considering Southern Miss went a combined 4-32 over the previous three seasons before this impressive 2015 campaign.  But the numbers don't lie, the Golden Eagles are the best team in Conference USA and should not be an underdog to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the championship game.

Common opponents are my favorite way to compare teams.  Southern Miss and WKU had five common opponents this season.  Southern Miss outscored those five opponents by an average of 25.6 points per game and outgained them by an average of 248.2 yards per game.  Western Kentucky outscored those five opponents by 23.0 points per game and outgained them by 179.6 yards per game.  That right there shows that the Golden Eagles are the better team in my book.

Southern Miss has only gotten better as the season has gone on, too.  It has won each of its last six games all by 21 points or more.  The one game that really stands out to me was last week against Louisiana Tech with the C-USA West title on the line.  Southern Miss went on the road and beat the Bulldogs 58-24 as 5-point underdogs.  They Golden Eagles racked up 555 total yards and outgained the Bulldogs by 150 for the game.

Louisiana Tech is a common opponent between these teams, and the best team from Conference USA that either faced all season.  Western Kentucky faced LA Tech at home, yet only won 41-38 as 2.5-point underdogs.  The Hilltoppers allowed 580 total yards to Louisiana Tech in that game and were fortunate to win.

I really like the balance of this Southern Miss offense, too.  It is averaging 195 rushing yards per gam eand 5.3 per carry, while also putting up 340 passing yards per game and 8.8 yards per attempt.  That's an average of 535 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  The Golden Eagles are vastly improved on defense, too, giving up 22.4 points per game, 351.0 yards per game and 5.1 per play.  Western Kentucky is a worse defensive team, allowing 25.0 points, 393 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Southern Miss is 8-0 ATS off one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games off a win by 21 points or more.  Southern Miss is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 475 or more total yards per game over its last three games.  The Hilltoppers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

20* NIU/Bowling Green MAC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 70

The Northern Illinois Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback now in true freshman Tommy Fiedler.  He played late in the second half against Ohio last week after Ryan Graham went down with a leg injury in the third quarter.  Graham had taken the place of Drew Hare before him.

It's safe to say that this Northern Illinois offense is only a shell of what it was with Hare at quarterback.  Graham played admirably, but he's no Hare.  And Fiedler is worse than Graham.  Fiedler actually came to Northern Illinois as a fifth-string quarterback, but Antony Maddie and fellow freshman Daniel Santacaterina also are dealing with injuries.

"We feel good where Tommy's at," NIU head coach Rod Carey said. "If we could have everybody healthy would we choose Tommy? Probably not. But Tommy is ready for it and he's excited about it."

The good news is that NIU is a primary running team anyways, averaging 48 rushing attempts and 213 yards per game.  Look for the NIU offense to take its time, run the football, and try and shorten this game as much as possible.  It knows that it stands no chance against Bowling Green's high-powered offense in a shootout.  That strategy for the Huskies is going to help aid this under.

Northern Illinois can rely on a defense that gives up 24.8 points, 392 yards per game and 5.0 per play against opponents that average 26.8 points, 395 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  So, the Huskies have an above-average defense as they are holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than they average on the season.

Bowling Green is actually an above-average defensive team that doesn't get much credit on that side of the ball.  It is allowing 5.4 yards per play against opponents that average 5.5 per play on offense.  The Falcons have been much better defensively of late, giving up 27 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall, including 10 or fewer in three of those.

What really stands out to me is the head-to-head history in this series.  The Falcons and Huskies have combined for 68 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 meetings, which is a 9-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 70 points.  They have combined to average 50.2 points per game in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 20 points less than this 70-point total as well.

Bowling Green is 6-0 to the UNDER against good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  Northern Illinois is 9-1 to the UNDER in its last 10 games as a neutral field underdog.  The Falcons are 12-2 to the UNDER after having won three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Illinois +3.5

The Illinois Fighting Illini have done a great job of getting into bowl contention this season despite all of the turmoil with the firing of their head coach.  At 5-6, they need one more win to get bowl eligible, so they will certainly be laying it all on the line this week against Northwestern.

Despite being 5-6 compared to 9-2 for Northwestern, I would actually argue that Illinois is the better team this season.  Its offense averages 5.0 yards per play against defenses that give up 5.1 per play, and its defense gives up 4.9 per play against offenses that average 5.5 per play.  So the Fighting Illini actually have a great defense that is allow 0.6 yards per play less than their opponents average.

Northwestern's offense is atrocious, averaging just 4.5 yards per play against opponents that give up 5.3 per play.  The Wildcats do have a great defense that allows 4.5 per play against opponents that average 5.4 per play.  But it's clear that the Fighting Illini have faced the more difficult schedule this season.

Northwestern is the most overrated team in the country in my opinion.  It is ranked 17th despite the fact that the Football Power Index shows that it is just the 55th-best team in the country when you factor in all the numbers.  But the Wildcats are overvalued due to their fluke win over Wisconsin last week.  The Badgers had three touchdowns called back by penalties and committed five turnovers, yet still only lost 7-13.

That sets the Wildcats up for a huge letdown spot here.  They are coming off that big win over the Badgers, but they still can't win the Big Ten West because Iowa already clinched it.  The Wildcats want to have a 10-win season, but they'll get their chance in the bowl game.  The fact of the matter is that Illinois simply wants this game more just to get bowl eligible.

Illinois has won three of its last five meetings with Northwestern with one of its losses coming by a field goal.  The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Fighting Illini are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Take Illinois Saturday.

20* Penn State/Michigan State Side & Total PARLAY on Penn State +10.5/UNDER 45

The Spartans are way overvalued now after upsetting the Ohio State Buckeyes last week. Sure, they have a lot to play for as a win will get them into the Big Ten Championship Game, but that’s also a lot of pressure on them. I don’t believe they should be double-digit favorites over a Penn State squad that is more than capable of hanging with the Spartans for four quarters in this one.

This line indicates the Connor Cook is going to be playing Saturday even though he’s listed as questionable. He actually missed the Ohio State game with a shoulder injury, which makes the Spartans’ upset that much more impressive. But that game went exactly the way the Spartans needed it to for them to pull the upset.

Indeed, the Spartans made a conscious effort to control the football with their running game, and they did just that by holding onto the ball for a whopping 38 minutes, 10 seconds. They won in spite of awful QB play from backups O’Connor and Terry, who combined for 8 of 16 passing for 91 yards and a touchdown. Whether or not Cook plays, this offense is so limited that it’s going to be hard to put away the Nittany Lions by double-digits.

Penn State comes in undervalued due to failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games overall. They had their chances against Michigan last week, but had to settle for two short field goals of 18 and 24 yards in the 4th quarter, which was the difference in a 16-28 loss.

While the Nittany Lions haven’t been great offensively, they do have a defense that keeps them in ball games. In fact, they have the slightly better defense in this one. They give up 18.6 points, 315.1 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points, 379 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. Indeed, the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings. Also, the road team has only lost by more than 4 points once in the last seven meetings. James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) – hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS since 1992. Penn State is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.

I also like the UNDER because I think Michigan State is going to implement the same gameplan as it did against Ohio State.  It will try and grind this one out with its running game to shorten the game and keep it in its favor.  Because they held the ball for over 38 minutes last week against Ohio State, they were able to hold the Buckeyes to just 152 yards of total offense.  The Buckeyes barely saw the field offensively.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MICHIGAN ST) - after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game against opponent after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last eight road games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Spartans last sevne home games.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Spartans last 13 games in November.  Bet Penn State and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Penn State/Michigan State Side & Total PARLAY on Penn State +10.5/UNDER 45

The Spartans are way overvalued now after upsetting the Ohio State Buckeyes last week. Sure, they have a lot to play for as a win will get them into the Big Ten Championship Game, but that’s also a lot of pressure on them. I don’t believe they should be double-digit favorites over a Penn State squad that is more than capable of hanging with the Spartans for four quarters in this one.

This line indicates the Connor Cook is going to be playing Saturday even though he’s listed as questionable. He actually missed the Ohio State game with a shoulder injury, which makes the Spartans’ upset that much more impressive. But that game went exactly the way the Spartans needed it to for them to pull the upset.

Indeed, the Spartans made a conscious effort to control the football with their running game, and they did just that by holding onto the ball for a whopping 38 minutes, 10 seconds. They won in spite of awful QB play from backups O’Connor and Terry, who combined for 8 of 16 passing for 91 yards and a touchdown. Whether or not Cook plays, this offense is so limited that it’s going to be hard to put away the Nittany Lions by double-digits.

Penn State comes in undervalued due to failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games overall. They had their chances against Michigan last week, but had to settle for two short field goals of 18 and 24 yards in the 4th quarter, which was the difference in a 16-28 loss.

While the Nittany Lions haven’t been great offensively, they do have a defense that keeps them in ball games. In fact, they have the slightly better defense in this one. They give up 18.6 points, 315.1 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points, 379 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series. Indeed, the road team is 3-0 straight up in the last three meetings. Also, the road team has only lost by more than 4 points once in the last seven meetings. James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses in all games he has coached.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) – hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS since 1992. Penn State is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of its last seven games coming in.

I also like the UNDER because I think Michigan State is going to implement the same gameplan as it did against Ohio State.  It will try and grind this one out with its running game to shorten the game and keep it in its favor.  Because they held the ball for over 38 minutes last week against Ohio State, they were able to hold the Buckeyes to just 152 yards of total offense.  The Buckeyes barely saw the field offensively.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (MICHIGAN ST) - after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game against opponent after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Nittany Lions last eight road games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Spartans last sevne home games.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Spartans last 13 games in November.  Bet Penn State and the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +14

The Iowa State Cyclones are probably the best 3-win team in the country.  They have a number of heartbreaking losses this season, not the least of which have come the last two weeks.  They blew a 24-7 lead to Oklahoma State and lost 31-35.  They also blew a 35-14 lead to Kansas State and lost 35-38.

Those two results led to the firing of head coach Paul Rhoads.  But the school was nice enough to let Rhoads coach out the season, and now this will be his final game with the Cyclones.  These players love Rhoads, and they have to be disappointed that they didn't get the job done for him in close games this year.  But they have one final chance to reward him with a win, and I look for them to be laying it all on the line for him against West Virginia this weekend.

The Mountaineers come in overvalued due to having covered the spread in their last two contests.  They won 38-20 over Texas, but they were outgained by 60 yards by the Longhorns.  This game was much closer than the final score showed, but the Longhorns gave it away by committing five turnovers.  Iowa State beat Texas 24-0 a few weeks back and outgained the Longhorns by 222 total yards.

Iowa State has played West Virginia extremely tough in their three meetings as Big 12 opponents.  All three were decided by 13 points or less, and the road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Iowa State won 52-44 (OT) as 7.5-point road dogs in 2013.  Last year, it was a 27-24 game in the fourth quarter before the Mountaineers outscored the Cyclones 10-0 in the final period to win 37-24.  No question the Cyclones want revenge from that game as well.

West Virginia is 1-10 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two seasons.  The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games.  The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* Conference USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Miss +5.5

Southern Miss is one of the most underrated teams in all of college football.  The Golden Eagles have gone 8-3 straight up and 9-2 against the spread in their 11 games this year.  Their great play has put them in a position to where if they win their regular season finale against Louisiana Tech, they will be playing in the Conference USA Championship Game.

The Golden Eagles continue to be undervalued here as 5.5-point road underdogs to the Bulldogs.  Sure, the Bulldogs are also 8-3 and are playing for the same thing, but it's clear to me that when you look at the numbers against common opponents that the Bulldogs should not be favored.

Both teams have played the same five opponents this season.  Southern Miss is 4-1 against them outscoring them by 23.0 points per game and outgaining them by 240.4 yards per game.  Louisiana Tech is 4-1 against those same five teams, but only outscoring them by 9.6 points per game and outgaining them by 92.6 yards per game.  This really shows that the Golden Eagles are by far the superior team.

Southern Miss is 7-0 ATS off one or more straight overs over the last two seasons.  The Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on VA Tech/Virginia UNDER 51

The intensity level in this rivalry between Virginia and Virginia Tech is always high.  It usually leads to a defensive battle when they get together.  The intensity level will certainly be high for Virginia Tech, which hopes to send Frank Beamer out on a winning note and a bowl berth.  Virginia wants to beat the head coach that has tormented the Cavaliers through the years, though.

A quick look at the recent head-to-head results shows that there's value with the UNDER 51 here.  The Hokies and Cavaliers have combined for 44 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They have average just 35.8 combined points in their last five meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than today's posted total of 51.

Bud Foster's defense at Virginia Tech has simply shut down Virginia.  The Cavaliers have scored 21 or fewer points in each of the last 11 meetings.  They have been held to 14 or less in nine of those 11 meetings.  The Hokies have another elite defense this season and should do their part in helping aid the UNDER.

The downfall for Beamer and company in recent years has been on offense.  They are only averaging 373 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season as this is a below-average unit once again.  The Cavaliers are pretty much on par with the Hokies offensively at 378 yards per game and 5.5 per play.

Against other good defensive teams, both squads have been prone to the UNDER.  The Hokies lost 13-17 to Pittsburgh for 30 combined points, beat Boston College 26-10 for 36 combined points, and beat Georgia Tech 23-21 for 44 combined points.  The Cavaliers lost to Pitt 19-26 for 35 combines points, lost to UNC 13-26 for 39 combined points, and beat Georgia Tech 27-21 for 48 combined points.

VA Tech is 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games vs. teams who give up 6.25 or more yards per play.  The Hokies are 12-3 to the UNDER against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  Virginia is 12-3 to the UNDER in its last 15 after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Hokies last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 11-4-1 in Cavaliers last 16 conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on Kentucky +6.5

The Kentucky Wildcats find themselves in the exact same position as last year.  They were 5-6 going into the Governor's Cup battle with Louisville needing a win to become bowl eligible.  They lost a gut-wrencher 44-40 at Louisville as 13.5-point underdogs.  They even had the lead with less than three minutes to play before giving up a game-winning touchdown to the Cardinals with 2:47 left.

I have to think that the Wildcats aren't going to fall short again this season.  This is the best team that Mark Stoops has had at Kentucky, and I believe the Wildcats will get the job done at home this time around.  It also helps that Louisville is clearly not as good as it was last season at just 6-5 on the year.

Kentucky got some confidence with a 58-10 beat down of Charlotte last week, which pretty much serves as a bye week heading into this game.  Louisville, meanwhile, played a taxing 34-45 loss at Pittsburgh in which the Cardinals gave up 42 points in the first half.  They gave up 31 points to an awful Virginia offense the previous week as well.  This team has no business even being favored with how poorly the defense is playing.

Louisville is 2-3 on the road this season with a 7-point win at NC State and a 1-point win at Wake Forest as 12-point favorites.  Those two wins are far from impressive.  Kentucky is 4-3 at home this season with a 3-point loss to Auburn and a 5-point loss to Florida for two of its losses.  It has only been beaten by this 6-point margin once at home in seven games this season.

Louisville is 1-9 ATS off a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  Kentucky is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games after having lost four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games.  Take Kentucky Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington -7

You're going to see an amped up Washington Huskies team take the field this afternoon in the Apple Cup against Washington State.  The Huskies are fighting to become bowl eligible as they are just 5-6 on the season with one game to go.  I fully expect them to use this motivation to roll to victory at home Friday afternoon.

Washington is one of the best teams in the country to have a losing record right now.  I have been especially impressed with the way the Huskies have been playing of late as they just continue to get better with each passing week under Chris Petersen.

Washington is coming off a 52-7 road win at Oregon State last week.  It also beat Arizona 49-3 at home four weeks ago.  The Huskies lost the two games in between, but shouldn't have.  They committed a combined 8 turnovers in losses to Utah and Arizona State.  They actually outgained the Utes by 35 yards in a 23-34 home loss, and outgained Arizona State by 150 yards in a 17-27 road loss.

This Washington offense has really been lighting it up behind the steady play of freshman Jake Browning.  The Huskies had 468 yards against Arizona, 547 against Arizona State, and 482 against Oregon State in three of its last four contests.  They also had 381 yards against Utah during this stretch, which isn't a bad output against that defense.

Washington State is overvalued right now due to going 8-0 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Huskies' latest cover was a 27-3 home win over Colorado and its backup quarterback.  But now the Cougars will likely be playing with a backup quarterback of their own.

Starter Luke Falk was carried off the field on a backboard last Saturday in the third quarter against Colorado.  He has a concussion, and it's unlikely he's going to be able to play on a short week.  He's currently listed as doubtful, though head coach Mike Leach has stated he'll make the final decision right before the game.

The chances are that Falk won't be able to go, and now Peyton Bender will make his first collegiate start in a hostile atmosphere.  Bender went 13 of 22 for 133 yards, one touchdown, one interception and another throw that should have been picked off in relief duty against Colorado last week.

The difference in this game is going to be defense.  The Huskies give up 18.5 points, 352.7 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opposing offenses that average 30.5 points, 425 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  The Cougars give up 27.4 points, 421 yards per game and 5.8 per play this season.

Washington has won each of its last two meetings with Washington State and five of the last six overall with all five wins coming by a touchdown or more.  The only loss came in overtime at Washington State in 2012.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON ST) - off two straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Washington Friday.

20* Texas Tech/Texas Thanksgiving Night No-Brainer on UNDER 72.5

I don’t see a ton of value on the side in this game as both of these teams are very unpredictable. If I had to choose a side, I would take Texas because it is better than its record and has outgained four of its last five opponents. Plus the fact that the Longhorns are 6-0 in the last six meetings and just seem to have the Red Raiders figured out.

Instead, I see a ton of value with the UNDER in this game for many of the same reasons I like Texas. I look for the Longhorns to utilize their running game to move the chains and keep the Texas Tech offense off the field for the majority of this game. I also believe the Longhorns are good enough defensively to slow down this Red Raider attack.

Texas has been playing some great defense of late. It has allowed 24 or fewer points in four of its last five games. That includes 17 points against Oklahoma in a 24-17 upset win. The only exception was a 20-38 loss to West Virginia, but those 38 points for the Mountaineers were very fluky. The Longhorns set the Mountaineers up for several easy scores by committing five turnovers. They actually held WVU to just 379 total yards in the loss.

But this Texas offense isn’t very good, either. The Longhorns have been held to 24 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall. The only exception came against Kansas when they scored 59 points. But almost everyone is lighting up that awful Kansas defense this year. The Longhorns hardly even look to throw the ball as they average 44 rushing attempts per game compared to just 21 passing. That’s going to keep the clock moving in this one.

Texas Tech is 3-1 to the UNDER in true road games this season. It combined for 59 points with Arkansas with a 68-point total. It combined for 50 points with Kansas with a 74-point total. It combined for 90 points against Oklahoma for the only over on the road. The Red Raiders also combined for 57 points with West Virginia with an 80.5-point total in that game.

Texas’ 10 totals this season have been 48, 49, 58, 62, 72, 60, 47.5, 50, 52 and 52 points. As you can see, this 72.5-point total is the largest total set in a Texas game this season. There was only one larger than 62, and that was a 72-point total against TCU. The Horned Frogs won that game 50-7 for 57 combined points as it went well UNDER the total. This just kind of shows you that there’s some serious value with the UNDER here.

The head-to-head history also shows value with the UNDER. Indeed, Texas Tech and Texas have combined for 72 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings dating back to 2008. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 47, 57, 53, 72, 38 and 58 points. That’s an average of 54.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than this posted total of 72.5.

The UNDER is 22-8 in Longhorns last 30 conference games. The UNDER is 14-6 in Longhorns last 20 home games. Texas is 14-2 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. The Longhorns are 9-1 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three years.  I also like the fact that both teams have had extra time to prepare for this game after having last week off, which is going to favor the defenses.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Bowling Green/Ball State MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State +23.5

I faded Bowling Green with success last week in a 28-44 home loss to Toledo as 7-point favorites.  I'll fade the Falcons again this week for many of the same reasons as they are way overvalued here as 23.5-point favorites over the Cardinals.

Bowling Green had nothing to play for with two games to go last year because it already clinched the MAC East at that point.  It not only lost its final two games, it was also blown out by Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship.  The same thing is happening this season.

Bowling Green clinched the MAC East title two weeks ago with its 41-27 win at Western Michigan.  The Falcons failed to show up last week in their 28-44 loss to Toledo as a result, and they certainly won't bring the kind of focus it takes to beat Ball State by 24-plus points in this one.

Ball State is a better team than its 3-8 record would indicate.  This is its last chance to prove it, and I expect an inspired effort from the Cardinals in this one as a result.  Plus, it's Senior Night for 17 players, so there's no question this team is going to be laying it all on the line to try and get one last win for their senior class.

The Cardinals have been competitive at home this season.  They beat UMass 20-10, only lost to Central Michigan 21-23, and lost by 14 to Toledo.  They haven't lost by more than 14 points at home this season.  They also only lost 19-24 at Northwestern as 17.5-point underdogs to prove what they are capable of.

Last year the Cardinals upset Bowling Green 41-24 as 10-point road underdogs.  That was the final game of the season when the Falcons had already clinched the MAC East and had nothing to play for.  I'm not calling for the upset here again, but it certainly would not surprise me one bit with the state of mind the Cardinals and Falcons are in.

The Cardinals have had some great quarterback play this season from freshman Riley Neal, who has thrown 15 touchdowns against only three interceptions.  Jordan Williams and KeVonn Mabon have combined for 128 receptions, 1,565 yards and 10 touchdowns this year.  Corey Lacanaria (42, 355, 2 TD) has missed the last two games due to suspension, but he's expected to return for this one, giving Neal another weapon.

Ball State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after allowing 37 points or more in two straight games.  Plays on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (BALL ST) - in conference games, returning 8+ offensive starters against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 48-20 (70.6%) ATS since 1992.  Bet Ball State on Senior Night Tuesday.

15* Tennessee/Missouri SEC East No-Brainer on Missouri +7

I really like the state of mind of the Missouri Tigers right now.  Once Gary Pinkel announced last week that this would be his last season, these players really rallied around one another.  They pulled off the 20-16 upset as 4.5-point underdogs last week against a good BYU team.  Now, this will be Pinkel's final home game as the head coach of the Tigers.  There's just going to be a little extra juice with this team given the situation.

This is going to be a night game in the Zoo to boot, and Columbia has been one of the toughest places to play at night over the years.  The Tigers (5-5) also still need another win to get bowl eligible, and since their next game is at Arkansas, this is their best chance to get one.  I just believe they are going to be putting all their eggs in one basket to get a win for Pinkel and to get bowl eligible.

The Tigers offense has been their reason for their poor record, because their defense is elite, limiting opponents to 14.7 points and 297.7 yards per game.  But the offense broke out against BYU for 434 total yards, limiting the Cougars to just 290 in the process.  Running back Russell Hansbrough recently returned from injury and had his first 100-yard effort of the season against the Cougars, which is a good sign going forward.  Freshman Drew Lock continues to improve, throwing for 244 yards and completing 68 percent of his passes last week.

Tennessee is just kind of going through the motions right now, picking up its sixth win to get bowl eligible last week in a lackluster 24-0 home win over North Texas as 40.5-point favorites.  That followed up another sub-par effort in a 27-24 home win over South Carolina as 17-point favorites.  I really don't think you can trust this team laying 7 points on the road this week, especially with all that Missouri has to play for here.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least.  The Tigers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Tennessee as SEC opponents over the last three years.  Missouri has actually been an underdog in two of those three games as well.  It also won 31-3 in its lone home meeting with Tennessee in 2012.

Missouri is 9-1 ATS in November games over the last three seasons.  The Volunteers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Roll with Missouri Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas -4

The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming on strong in the second half this year just as they did last season. They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming on the road at Alabama by a final of 14-27 as 15.5-point underdogs. That’s the same Alabama team that torched Mississippi State 31-6 last weekend.

Coming off that crushing loss to Alabama that ended any hopes of the Bulldogs winning the SEC, I look for them to suffer a hangover effect this week against the Razorbacks. They won’t be nearly as jacked up for this game against Arkansas as they were last week against Alabama. I’ll gladly side with the team playing the better football right now as short home favorites.

Arkansas has played a gauntlet of a schedule this year. It had to face Texas Tech and Toledo out of conference, but looking back, that may have been a blessing in disguise as the Razorbacks have been great in SEC play. Believe it or not, they still have a shot to earn at least a share of the SEC West title because they are 4-2 right now within the conference. They have two home games remaining against Mississippi State and Missouri, so 6-2 is very likely. They would need Alabama to lose at Auburn, but in that rivalry game, anything is possible.

Mississippi State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It has taken advantage of a very soft schedule this season, playing Southern Miss, Northwestern State, Troy and LA Tech out of conference. It also drew two of the worst teams from the SEC East in Kentucky and Missouri and beat them both, while Arkansas had to play what I believe is the best team from the East in Tennessee. The Razorbacks beat the Vols 24-20 on the road.

Mississippi State has not fared well against the best three teams that it has played. It lost 19-21 at home to LSU in what was a 21-6 game in the fourth quarter. That’s the same LSU team that Arkansas beat 31-14 on the road last week. Mississippi State also lost 17-30 at Texas A&M, while Arkansas took Texas A&M to overtime on a neutral field. And finally, the Bulldogs lost 6-31 at home to Alabama, while Arkansas only lost 14-27 on the road to the Crimson Tide.

As you can see from that previous paragraph, when you compare common opponents, it’s clear that Arkansas is by far the superior team. These teams have played the same four teams this season in Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. Mississippi State is 1-3 against them scoring just 14.8 points per game and getting outscored by 8.0 points per game, while Arkansas is 2-2 against them scoring 30.0 points per game and outscoring them by 1.2 points per game.

This Arkansas offense is unstoppable right now and may be the best unit in the entire SEC. It is putting up 50.3 points per game during its current four-game winning streak. It scored 54 against Auburn, 63 against Tennessee Martin, 53 against Ole Miss and 31 against LSU. The Razorbacks racked up 605 total yards on Ole Miss and 440 total yards on LSU, which is no small feat and just shows how well they are playing on that side of the ball right now. Mississippi State does not have the firepower to keep up, and its defense has taken a big step back this year.

Arkansas is 9-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8.0 or more yards per attempt over the past two seasons. The Razorbacks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games after gaining 475 or more total yards per game over their last three games. The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Razorbacks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  This is a huge hangover spot for the Bulldogs off that Alabama loss, so expect the Razorbacks to roll again.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State -1.5

New Mexico is in the ultimate letdown spot here.  It just clinched a bowl win with a shocking upset of Boise State last week as whopping 31-point underdogs, winning 31-24 on the road.  The Lobos have now accomplished their goal of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2007.  That's a huge accomplishment, but now this team is not going to show up at all this week.

Besides, the win over Boise State was extremely fluky.  The Lobos were outgained by 225 yards in that game as Boise   racked up 638 total yards, but found a way to lose by committing four turnovers.  The Lobos are extremely fortunate to be 6-4 because they have been outgained in seven of their 10 games this season, and they only outgained New Mexico State by 30 yards and Wyoming by 1 yards in two of the games they weren't outgained.  The other was the opener against Mississippi Valley State.

New Mexico is getting outgained by an average of 60.9 yards per game on the season.  While New Mexico is content with being bowl eligible, Colorado State (5-5) still needs another win to clinch a bowl berth.  It will be the more motivated team here as a result.  The Rams are clearly the better team as they are outgaining teams by 16.5 yards per game this season, and they've played a tougher schedule than New Mexico to boot.

I really like the way the Rams are playing coming into this game.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat a good Air Force team 38-23 at home, topped Wyoming 26-7 on the road, and beat UNLV 49-35 at home.  Yes, they lost 17-41 at home to San Diego State, but the Aztecs are crushing everyone right now.  Plus, the Rams gave that game away by committing four turnovers because they were only outgained by 88 yards.  It was closer than that final score suggests.

Colorado State owns New Mexico, going 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The last two haven't even been close.  Colorado State won 66-42 as 7-point road favorites in 2013 while racking up 649 yards of offense.  The Rams also won 58-20 as 20.5-point home favorites last year, racking up 698 yards and outgaining New Mexico by 342 yards.

Colorado State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games after playing a home games.  New Mexico is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less.  The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  Don't expect New Mexico to even show up for this one off that win over Boise State.  Roll with Colorado State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +29

The Clemson Tigers just cannot live up to the expectations they have created for themselves with their No. 1 ranking in the playoffs.  Oddsmakers have been forced to set the spreads in their games too high the last two weeks because of their ranking and the betting public's tendency to back these teams blindly.  They haven't lived up to those expectations.  After all, all undefeated teams went 1-5 ATS last week, and I expect that trend to continue this week.

Clemson failed to cover as a 12.5-point home favorite two weeks ago against Florida State, winning that game by 10 in what was a tie game entering the 4th quarter.  I successfully faded the Tigers in that game, and then again last week when they were massive 30-point favorites over Syracuse on the road.  They only beat the Orange 37-27.  I'm fading them for a 3rd straight week now that they are overvalued again as 29-point favorites over Wake Forest.

This is a Wake Forest team that is better than its 3-7 record would suggest.  It has been competitive in every single game this season outside of a 14-50 loss at North Carolina.  All six of its other losses came by 17 points or less.  That includes a 16-24 loss to Florida State as 19-point dogs, a 19-20 loss to Louisville as 12-point dogs, and a 7-28 loss at Notre Dame last week as 25.5-point dogs.

That game at Notre Dame really stands out to me.  Wake Forest actually outplayed the Fighting Irish in that game.  The Demon Deacons had a 340-282 yard edge.  That's right, they limited the high-powered Fighting Irish offense to just 282 total yards, 98 of which came on a TD run.  They had a 23-15 edge in first downs, but converted just 1 of 4 of their red zone trips and were stopped on the 1-yard line in the 2nd quarter.  If they can hang with Notre Dame, they can certainly hang with Clemson.

"I think we realized that we're a more talented team and that we can play with anyone in the country," sophomore quarterback John Wolford said. "It's just a matter of execution, knowing your assignment, just not making stupid plays. Right now we're still young, so for us to be in these games we have to be smart, we have to execute, and coming down to the end of games we have to try and find a way to win."

Clemson is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games following five or more consecutive straight up wins, only winning by 5.6 points per game in this spot.  The Tigers are 1-8 ATS after playing three straight conference games over the last two seasons.  The Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last five  games following a S.U. loss.  Clemson doesn't need style points, it just needs a win, which is all it cares about right now.  Take Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Penn State +4

There's a lot to love about Penn State in this game.  The Nittany Lions are coming off their bye week following a last-second 21-23 loss at Northwestern.  They have had two weeks to stew over that defeat, and there's no question that they're be chomping at the bit to hit the field in Happy Valley Saturday.  The bye has also given players like stud RB Saquon Barkley a chance to heal his injured ankle.

Meanwhile, Michigan is coming off a double-overtime win at Indiana last week and will be fatigued.  In fact, the Wolverines' last two road games against unranked opponents have gone down to the wire, and they were outplayed in both but found a way to win.  They won at Minnesota thanks to a goal-line stand despite getting outgained 461-296 by the Golden Gophers.  They also needed a fourth-and-goal TD pass on the last play of regulation to force OT against Indiana last week.  They won't be so fortunate in Happy Valley this weekend.

This is also a lookahead spot for the Wolverines, who have "The Game" on deck next week against Ohio State.  They won't be able to help but look ahead to that contest.  I think the Nittany Lions are catching them at the perfect time all things considered, and I'm not so sure that Penn State isn't the better team.

After all, Happy Valley is a place where opposing teams have gone to die this season.  Indeed, Penn State is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 20.2 points per game.  Their defense has been suffocating at home, allowing just 9.8 points and 252.5 yards per game.  Their offense has gotten it going at home, averaging 30.0 points per game.  The Nittany Lions are also 3-0 straight up in their last three home meetings with Michigan.

Michigan is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game.  The Nittany Lions are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS loss.  The home team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* UNC/VA Tech ACC ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +6

The Virginia Tech Hokies are going to be laying it all on the line this week for a couple of different reasons.  The biggest is that it's the final home game of Frank Beamer's illustrious career, but it's also a chance to become bowl eligible and extend their nation's longest bowl streak to 23 seasons.  Oh yea, it's also Senior Day for 26 Hokies on the roster.  It's safe to say that these players will be leaving it all on the field Saturday.

''We all know it's a huge game, not only for Frank but for us,'' senior defensive tackle Luther Maddy said this week. ''It's my last time walking through the tunnel at Lane Stadium, so I know I'm going to have some emotions running through my body. I'm sure all the other seniors will also. I think we're going to play our butts off this game, not only for us but for Coach Beamer and for this team to keep this bowl streak going. It'll be a huge game.''

The Hokies can also secure bowl eligibility next week by winning their regular-season finale against Virginia. Beamer's son Shane, the Hokies' associate head coach and running backs coach, would obviously prefer it happens against North Carolina.  ''I can't wait for Saturday,'' he said. ''We need Lane Stadium to be the loudest it's ever been on Saturday. Ever.''

North Carolina is only ranked 17th in the playoff poll with a 9-1 record because it has played such a soft schedule this year.  It has played seven home games, one neutral site game (a loss to South Carolina), and two true road games.  It only beat both Georgia Tech and Pitt by 7 points apiece in its two true road games, and Virginia Tech is better than both of those squads in my opinion, especially now that QB Michael Brewer is back.

Brewer led the Hokies to a 23-21 win at Georgia Tech last week, which followed up a 26-10 win at Boston College the previous week.  But defense has been the main reason for the late-season resurgence.  The Hokies held Boston College to just 218 yards and forced four turnovers.  They also limited a very good Georgia Tech offense to 258 yards and forced three turnovers.  This is a senior-laden defense that will be playing with a chip on its shoulder in trying to tame this UNC offense.

UNC has had a very good offense the last two seasons, but Beamer and defensive coordinator Bud Foster have shut the Tar Heels down.  The Hokies won 27-17 at home in 2013 over the Tar Heels and held them to 376 yards.  They also won 34-17 on the road last year while limiting Marquise Williams and company to 323 yards.  Foster clearly has this UNC offense figured out.

UNC is 9-27 ATS in its last 36 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games.  Larry Fedora is 0-7 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last games as the coach of UNC.  Beamer is 6-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of Virginia Tech.  These are two 100% never lost systems folks.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue +23

The Iowa Hawkeyes are one of the most overrated teams in the country right now.  They are currently No. 5 in the playoff rankings due to their 10-0 record, and while they've earned that record, the fact of the matter is that it's come against a soft schedule.

It's telling that oddsmakers in Las Vegas would have Iowa as a 10-plus point underdog to each of the top three playoff contenders in Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State on a neutral field, as well as an 8-point underdog to Notre Dame.  I don't have much of a problem with their No. 5 ranking, but the fact of the matter is that they're way overvalued right now.

That certainly showed last week as they opened as 12-point favorites against Minnesota and the money moved the line down to -9.  Iowa barely won that game 40-35 a week after escaping with a 35-27 win at Indiana.  Those are two bad teams, and Iowa couldn't put them away.  It's just not their style to win in blowout fashion, which is why Purdue is showing so much value here as a 23-point dog.

Purdue continues to fight here down the stretch, beating Nebraska 55-45 three weeks ago and nearly upsetting Northwestern in a 14-21 road loss last week.  I really like what I've seen from redshirt freshman QB David Blough, who has averaged 245 passing yards on 62 percent completions with six touchdowns and three interceptions over his past three games.  He's getting more and more comfortable as the season goes on.

Blough should have some success against this Iowa defense, which has given up a combined 62 points and 841 yards to Indiana and Minnesota the past two weeks.  It also help that leading rusher Markell Jones is probable to play after dealing with a knee injury.  He has been a huge bright spot on this team, rushing for 692 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.4 per carry.

Iowa QB C.J. Beathard is having a fine season, but he's been banged up all year, and next week's game against Nebraska is more important, so don't expect the coaching staff to allow him to run as much as he normally does.  Beathard's latest ailment is a hip injury suffered in the win over Minnesota last week.  But he's also dealing with a groin injury, so he's just nowhere near 100 percent.

Iowa is playing with unbeaten pressure right now too, which could help explain its close calls against Indiana and Minnesota.  It doesn't need style points either, just a win will do, and that's all that head coach Kirk Ferentz cares about.  He's not one to run up scoreboards, that's for sure, and the Hawkeyes aren't capable anyways.  They are a run-first, stop the run type of team that's not flashy at all.  That's why it's so difficult for them to cover these monstrous spreads.

Unbeaten teams went 1-5 against the spread last week, so with each win from these teams comes bigger expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers.  Oddsmakers are forced to shade their lines because they know the public is going to be on them.

Iowa has eight wins over Power 5 teams, but those have come by just an average of 11.0 points per game.  Purdue has faced three teams who are currently ranked by the playoff committee, and it has only lost those games by an average of 9.0 points per game.  That alone shows you there's some value with the Boilermakers here.

Plus, Purdue has actually played its best football on the road this season.  It suffered a fluke 31-41 loss at Marshall in the opener where it gave up a pick-6 in the closing seconds when it was driving for the win after leading the entire way.  The Boilermakers are 3-0 ATS in Big Ten road games, losing at Michigan State 21-24 as 23-point dogs, at Wisconsin 7-24 as 23-point dogs, and at Northwestern 14-21 as 14-point dogs.

I would argue that Michigan State and Wisconsin are both better than Iowa, and Purdue played both tough on the road as identical 23-point dogs, losing by an average of 10.0 points to them.  Yes, Wisconsin did lose to Iowa 10-6, but that was a fluky loss too because the Badgers outgained the Hawks by 99 yards and fumbled on the 1-yard line on what would have been the winning TD.

This is Purdue's Super Bowl.  An upset win here would make their season.  I'm not calling for that, but that's just their mentality coming in.  They have nothing to lose while Iowa has everything to lose, so there's no pressure on the Boilermakers.  It also helps that home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall.  Purdue won 27-24 as a 5-point dog in its last trip to Iowa City, and lost 17-22 as a 17-point dog the time before.

Purdue is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  It is only losing to these teams by an average of 6.3 points per game.  The Boilermakers are consistently undervalued on the road, especially against good teams.  That's the case again here.  The Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Purdue as my 25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR Saturday!

20* Cincinnati/USF AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Florida +2

When I first looked into this game, I didn’t love the spot for South Florida. They just won their 6th game last week in an upset victory over Temple to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2010. I initially thought this would be a letdown spot for them after that accomplishment, but a closer inspection shows that they still have plenty to play for and will have no problem getting focused for Cincinnati this week.

Indeed, the Bulls are actually in second place in the AAC East standings at 4-2. The team ahead of them? Temple at 5-1. But the Bulls obviously have the tiebreaker over the Owls now, so if they can win out they will have a good chance to play in the AAC Championship Game. Temple still has to play Memphis and UConn, and there’s a good chance it loses one of those two games. Cincinnati (3-3) is two games back in the AAC East with little to play for right now, so if anything I have to question the Bearcats’ motivation.

With how well the Bulls are playing right now, it would be foolish to bet against them. They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games with blowout wins over Syracuse (45-24), SMU (38-14) and Temple (44-23). They also went on the road and beat East Carolina (22-17) and Connecticut (28-20) as underdogs. They have actually been an underdog in five of their last six games. They outgained ECU by 222 yards and Temple by 176 yards in their last two games.

Raymond James Stadium has offered South Florida a tremendous home-field advantage this year. It is 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 21.4 points per game in the process. Its only loss came to Memphis by a final of 17-24. The Bulls are also outgaining teams by an average of 155.0 yards per game at home this year.

Cincinnati has a very good offense but an awful defense. It is giving up 28.2 points and 403 yards per game. Its biggest problem has been stopping the run. The Bearcats are giving up 186 yards rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry against teams that only average 150 per game and 3.9 per carry.

That’s bad news for them because now they’re up against a South Florida offense that is averaging 228 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry. Marlon Mack, one of the most underrated backs in the country, rushed for 230 yards and two touchdowns against a stout Temple defense last week. He now has 1,065 yards while averaging 6.5 per carry on the season. He should have another career game against this weak Cincinnati stop unit.

Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this season with its only win coming at Miami Ohio by a final of 37-33 as 21-point favorites. Miami Ohio is 2-9 on the season and has been outscored by 176 points this year. USF is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that complete 58% or more of their passes over the last two years. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.  Bet South Florida Friday.

15* ECU/UCF ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Central Florida +14.5

The Central Florida Knights haven’t had a lot to be excited about this season. They are 0-10 and their head coach, George O’Leary, stepped down midseason. But they certainly do not want to go 0-12 this season and have that hanging over their heads all offseason. They have two more chances to get a win, both at home as they host East Carolina and then South Florida. Look for them to lay it all on the line in this game to get a win, especially since they are playing in a nationally televised home game on ESPN Thursday night. That’s more than enough motivation to bring out their best effort.

East Carolina has really fizzled out here down the stretch. It has gone 0-3 in its last three games overall and has been thoroughly outplayed in the process. Even though the Pirates beat Tulsa three weeks back 30-17, they were outgained in that contest by 81 yards. They blew a late lead and lost 14-24 at home to Temple three weeks ago, and they went on to get blown out 13-31 at Connecticut two games ago.  They have been held to just 14.7 points per game in their last three.

Last week, ECU lost 17-22 at home to South Florida as 5.5-point favorites. While that final score looks close, this was actually a huge blowout in the Bulls’ favor. They outgained the Pirates by 222 yards in the game and should have won by a lot more. They racked up 442 yards while limiting the Pirates to just 220 yards. I just don’t like the way the Pirates are playing right now, and you cannot trust them to win by more than a two touchdowns on the road, which is what it would take to cover this 14.5-point spread.

UCF has put together a couple of promising efforts here of late that make me think it can hang with East Carolina. It only lost 16-30 on the road at Temple as 19.5-point dogs on October 17 to cover that spread. The Knights also covered as 17-point road dogs to Tulsa in their last game in a 30-45 loss. But that game was closer than the final score as they were only outgained by 13 yards, but they committed four turnovers to help Tulsa pull away.

ECU has not beaten UCF by more than 14 points in any of their nine meetings dating back to 2005. The Pirates have won five of those nine meetings, but their victories have come by 7, 5, 3, 14 and 13 points. The Knights have won the last two with a 40-20 home win in 2012 and a 32-30 road win in 2014.

The Pirates are 0-9 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. ECU is 4-12 ATS as a favorite over the last two years. The Pirates are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 conference games. ECU is 0-6 ATS in its last six Thursday games. UCF is 7-1 ATS in its last eight Thursday games.  Take UCF Thursday.

15* Western Michigan/Northern Illinois MAC No-Brainer on UNDER 61

First place in the MAC West division is on the line when the Western Michigan Broncos and Northern Illinois Huskies get together tonight at Huskie Stadium.  The intensity will be turned up a notch in this one, and I believe that favors both defenses tremendously in what will be a lower-scoring game than oddsmakers anticipate.

Both of these teams have been pretty solid defensively this season.  The Huskies only give up 4.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.5 yards per play.  The Broncos have been much better within the conference, giving up 23.7 points and 376.3 yards per game.  They only allowed 14 points to Ohio, 13 to Miami Ohio and 7 to Ball State in three of their last five contests.

Northern Illinois is without starting QB Drew Hare, and the offense isn't as explosive with backup Ryan Graham in there.  Graham has only played the last 1.5 games due to the Hare injury.  He played well to close against Toledo, but the Huskies relied mostly on their rushing attack to beat Buffalo last week.

What really stands out to me is the low-scoring nature of this series.  These teams combined for 52 points and 351.0 yards apiece last year in a 31-21 NIU victory.  They combined for 47 points and 360.0 yards apiece in a 33-14 NIU home win in 2013 as well.  In fact, eight of the last 10 meetings have seen 55 or fewer combined points.  Also, 15 of the last 19 meetings have seen 60 or less.

Western Michigan is 6-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Northern Illinois is 29-14 UNDER in its last 43 home games vs. conference opponents.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Huskies last eight November games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings at Northern Illinois.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Toledo/Bowling Green MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Toledo +7

This feels a lot like last year when Bowling Green clinched the MAC East Title with a few weeks to go and proceeded to tank the rest of the way. I could easily see that happening again this year after the Falcons clinched the MAC East with their 41-27 win at Central Michigan last week. They literally have nothing to play for now, and betting on teams in these situations will get you killed.

Last year, Bowling Green clinched the MAC East title with two games left. It went on to lose 20-27 at Toledo as 7-point underdogs and 24-41 at home to Ball State as 10-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 27 points in that game. The Falcons also went on to lose to Northern Illinois 17-51 in the MAC Championship.

Toledo has everything to play for right now. It is sitting in a three-way tie with Northern Illinois and Western Michigan for first place in the MAC West and the right to play Bowling Green in the MAC Championship. The Rockets are going to have to win out and get some help because they lost a heartbreaker 27-32 to Northern Illinois, so the Huskies hold the tiebreaker over them.  But they host Western Michigan next week so they have a good shot.

The Rockets did a great job of handling their business last week in winning 28-23 at Central Michigan. This game was a bigger blowout than the final score indicated as the Rockets jumped out to a 21-0 lead before taking their foot off the gas. The Chippewas even got a defensive touchdown to help get them back in the game.

Toledo has actually outgained each of its last seven opponents this season. The only two games it got outgained this year it still found a way to beat Iowa State and Arkansas. The Rockets are very good on both sides of the ball, averaging 6.1 yards per play against teams that give up 5.8. They also give up just 5.0 yards per play defensively against teams that average 5.5.

Bowling Green’s success offensively is well documented, but it will finally be up against a legitimate defense this week. The Rockets only allow 18.8 points per game and will be the best defense that the Falcons have seen in conference play. Bowling Green’s biggest weakness is its defense, which allows 27.9 points, 439 yards per game and 5.6 per play.

I believe the Falcons come in overvalued due to having gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Well, the last two games were a lot closer than the final scores. They beat Ohio 62-24 despite only outgaining the Bobcats by 38 yards. They also beat Western Michigan 41-27 despite only outgaining the Broncos by 18 yards.

Toledo simply owns Bowling Green, going 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Not only are they winning these games, they are dominating them. They have outgained Bowling Green in all five games with four of those coming by 101 yards or more. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if they win this game outright as well, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Rockets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Toledo is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Rockets have actually had an extra day of rest than the Falcons.  They played last Tuesday while the Falcons played on Wednesday, and that is a nice advantage for them as well.  Bet Toledo Tuesday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor -2.5

Everyone is on the Oklahoma bandwagon right now due to how dominant it has been in going 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. That’s evident by the fact that this line opened at Baylor -5 and has already been bet down to Baylor -2.5. There is a ton of money coming in on the Sooners right now to say the least. They have taken care of lesser opponents in Kansas State, Texas Tech, Kansas and Iowa State in their last four games.

But in their only game against the best opponent they’ve faced in Tennessee, the Sooners needed to erase a 17-3 fourth quarter deficit and were fortunate to escape with a 31-24 (OT) victory. They also had that ugly 17-24 loss to Texas in which they were outgained by 90 yards. The Sooners have to face the three best teams in the Big 12 still in Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State over their final three games. Their true colors will show on the road this week as Bob Stoops just doesn't win big games any more.

Baylor isn’t getting much love right now because it lost Seth Russell and only beat Kansas State 31-24 last week. But that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Bears led by 21 in the fourth quarter before allowing a couple garbage touchdowns late. Garbage touchdowns aren’t going to work for Oklahoma with this 2.5-point spread. Plus, Baylor gets an extra two days to prepare after playing last Thursday.

True freshman Jarrett Stidham more than held his own against Kansas State in a tough road environment in his first start. He threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for a score. But this guy doesn’t get rattled and has been superb while getting a chance to play in all eight games this year due the fact that Baylor has been in so many blowouts, outscoring opponents by 32.4 PPG on average.

Stidham is completing 77 percent of his passes for 750 yards with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions on the season. He’s not a downgrade from Russell at all, and nearly beat him out in fall camp.  Art Briles has been raving about Stidham for good reason as he was one of the top rated QB's in the country coming out of high school as Phil Steele had him at No. 5.

Baylor’s toughest games are all ahead as well, but this team is getting punished a lot more than Oklahoma for its schedule by the voters. The fact of the matter is that the Bears have been dominant even though they’ve played an easy schedule. They lead the nation with 57.4 points and 665.6 yards pre game. Their defense is vastly improved this year, giving up 25.0 points, 388.4 yards per game and 5.0 per play. And a lot of those points and yards have come in garbage time with the game already decided and the backups in, otherwise the numbers would be even better.

Waco is becoming one of the toughest places to play in the country. Baylor is 29-1 at home over the past five seasons, and 26-7 ATS in its last 33 home games overall. It has won its last two home meetings with Oklahoma by finals of 41-12 (2013) as 17-point favorites and 45-38 (2011) as 16.5-point underdogs. Don’t forget, the Bears went into Norman last year and won 48-14 as 5.5-point underdogs. They outgained the Sooners 544-319 for the game.

Baylor has outscored Oklahoma a combined 89-26 in their two meetings over the past two seasons.  And the scary part is that this is the best team that Baylor has ever had now.  This team remembers all of the bad years as the Big 12 punching bags and wants to return the favor with its continued dominance of Oklahoma in the recent history in this series.

Baylor is 9-1 ATS after leading in its last two games by 14-plus points at the half over the last two seasons. The Bears are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite. Oklahoma is 20-42 ATS in its last 62 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. The Bears are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games with a total set of 70 or more points.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* Oregon/Stanford Pac-12 No-Brainer on Oregon +10

Stanford is getting a lot of hype right now because it is a playoff contender and it has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Teams on long ATS winning streaks like this are almost always overvalued. That’s reflected in this line with the fact that Stanford is a 10-point favorite over Oregon. I believe there is value in backing the Ducks catching double-digits on the road in this huge rivalry game. They would love nothing more than to spoil the Cardinal’s playoff bid, and they still have an outside shot of winning the division if they win out, so they will be plenty motivated.

It’s clear to me that Oregon hasn’t packed it in at all. It has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. It won 26-20 at Washington and 61-55 at Arizona State outright as underdogs in both games before putting together its most complete performance of the season in a 44-28 home victory over California last week. This game was a bigger blowout than even that final score showed as the Ducks racked up a season-high 777 total yards while holding the Bears to 432, outgaining them by 345 yards.

It’s a shame that Vernon Adams wasn’t healthy earlier this year in losses to Michigan State, Utah and Washington State. He played through injury in the loss to Michigan State, was knocked out early in the Utah game, and did not play at all against Washington State. But ever since Adams returned healthy, this has been a completely different Ducks team. It’s why they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

Adams has thrown for 1,468 yards with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 145 yards and two scores. Offense hasn’t been the issue for the Ducks, who are scoring 42.2 points and averaging 543.6 yards per game. Adams alone can keep the Ducks in this game while matching Kevin Hogan score for score.  He has thrown for at least 300 passing yards in three consecutive games and now faces the weakness of the Stanford team, which is its secondary.

One thing that stands out to me that really shows how much value we are getting with the Ducks is the spreads in recent games in this series. The Ducks have been favored in 11 of their last 13 meetings with Stanford. They were only 2.5-point underdogs both times they were not favored, and they won both of those games outright. You have to go all the way back to 1992 to find the last time that Stanford was favored by double-digits in this series.

Oregon is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games following three straight conference games. The Ducks are 9-0 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. They have a knack for getting better as the season goes along, and that has been the case again in 2015. Oregon is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 vs. a team with a sinning record. The Ducks are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 conference games. Oregon is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 road games. The Ducks are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Roll with Oregon Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas +7.5

The LSU Tigers suffered a devastating loss to Alabama last week. Its going to be very tough for this team to come back emotionally and physically a week later. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat now that they have all but been eliminated from playoff contention as they no longer control their own destiny. That’s going to make it very tough for them to cover this 7.5-point spread at home Saturday.

Arkansas relishes the role of spoiler. It did the same thing last year with back-to-back shutouts of ranked Ole Miss and LSU teams as it was fighting to become bowl eligible. The Razorbacks are fighting for that again as they sit at 5-4 and could gain bowl eligibility this week with a win. They’d love nothing more then to kick LSU while it’s down this week.

Arkansas went into Ole Miss and came away with a 53-52 road win last week to spoil the Rebels’ bid to win the SEC West. The Rebels had controlled their own destiny, and if they won out, they would have been division champs. But Brandon Allen and company were clutch late once again, earning their second overtime victory in three weeks. They also beat Auburn in four overtimes by a final of 54-46 three weeks ago.

This is an Razorbacks offense that is hitting on all cycliners right now. They scored 54 points and amassed 457 total yards against Auburn, 63 points and 591 yards against Tennessee-Martin, and 53 points and 615 yards against Ole Miss. Those numbers have obviously led to a 3-0 run over their last three games as they are once again playing their best football in the second half of the season.

LSU was way overrated coming into that Alabama game last week because it had played a very favorable schedule up to that point. Five of its first seven games were at home, and it wasn’t impressive in its two road wins at Mississippi State (21-19) and Syracuse (34-24), either. I still don’t believe this team is as good as its getting credit for from oddsmakers here as 7.5-point favorites.

Arkansas shut out LSU 17-0 at home last year behind a dominant defensive effort. The Razorbacks held the Tigers to just 123 total yards in the win. The Tigers only managed 36 rushing yards on 32 carries. Arkansas has been stopping the run very well again this season, allowing 129 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry against opponents that average 180 yards per game and 4.6 per carry.

Keep in mind that the 17-0 shutout last year was on the heels of an overtime loss to Alabama for LSU.  So, the letdown spot following the Alabama game is real.  Also note that Arkansas is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.  In 2013, the Razorbacks were massive 28-point road underdogs in Baton Rouge.  They only lost that game 27-31 after LSU capped off a 99-yard drive TD drive with only 1:15 left on the clock.

The Razorbacks’ one weakness is their pass defense, but LSU QB Brandon Harris isn’t capable of exploiting it as he’s one of the worst quarterbacks in the SEC. LSU is only averaging 10 completions per game and 54.4 percent completions this season. Harris is a liability, and that will be a big reason that the Razorbacks hang around for four quarters and possibly pull the upset.

Arkansas is 8-0 ATS versus teams who average 8 or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons. LSU is 10-22 ATS in its last 22 home games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse. The Tigers are 13-33 ATS in their last 46 November home games. The Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +29.5

First and foremost, this is a massive letdown spot for the No. 1 ranked Clemson Tigers.  They finally ended their Florida State's run as division champs last week, locking up the Atlantic Division title in the process.  It's only human nature for the Tigers to come out flat this week off such an emotional win, and I believe they will.

Secondly, Clemson is already overvalued due to its No. 1 national ranking.  I took advantage last week and backed Florida State catching double-digits, which was a ridiculous line as it was.  This was a 13-13 game in the 4th quarter before the Tigers scored the final 10 points to win 23-13, but the Seminoles were never in jeopardy of not covering. 

Now oddsmakers are asking Clemson to go on the road and win this game by more than four touchdowns to cover this 29.5-point spread.  Just how rare is a 4 TD road favorite in conference games?  FSU's Jimbo Fisher has only been a 4 TD road favorite twice, Oregon in the Chip Kelly/Mark Helfrich era three times, and Bob Stoops in his 17 years at Oklahoma only four times.  Nick Saban has never been favored by four touchdowns on the road in SEC play, and Baylor hasn't laid four scores on the road in league play against anyone other than Kansas.

The difference here is that Syracuse is actually a decent team, especially at home.  The Orange are 3-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to ranked LSU and Pittsburgh teams.  They only lost 24-34 at as 23-point dogs to LSU and 20-23 as 8-point dogs to Pitt.  And this game?  This is the National Championship for the Orange, who would make their season with an upset bid here.  While that is probably unlikely, you can expect the Orange to be laying it all on the line for four quarters.  The same cannot be said for the Tigers, who think they just have to show up to win this one.

I think the injury to Syracuse starting QB Eric Dungey is being overblown here.  He suffered his third head injury of the season against Louisville last week and has been ruled out.  But that could be a blessing in disguise.  Backup QB Zach Mahoney has more than held his own.  He has thrown four touchdown passes against one interception while also providing a threat as a runner, averaging 5.7 per carry on nine attempts.

Mahoney finished off the 30-27 win over Central Michigan back on September 19.  Then, he started and played the entire game against LSU, which was arguably Syracuse's best performance of the season.  Mahoney actually threw for 154 yards and three touchdowns against that LSU defense.  He also threw a TD pass on the final possession of the game against Louisville last week after Dungey was knocked out.  This guy isn't a downgrade from Dungey one bit.

Syracuse is 17-5 ATS in home games after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in its previous game, winning in this spot by 11.0 points per game on average.  Last year, Syracuse only lost 6-16 at Clemson as 17-point underdogs.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Clemson is 5-12-2 ATS in its last 19 road games vs a team with a losing record.  The Orange are 4-1 ATS in their five home games this year.  The Orange are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Syracuse Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia +14

This line actually opened at 8.5 in some places and has been bet all the way up to 14.  This move is clearly an overreaction from Louisville's 41-17 home win over Syracuse last week.  The betting public is quick to forget that Louisville's previous three games were far from impressive.

Indeed, it started with a 21-41 loss at Florida State as 6.5-point dogs in an absolute blowout in favor of the Seminoles.  Then, the Cardinals failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites over Boston College in a narrow 17-14 win.  The week prior to playing Syracuse, Louisville only won 20-19 at Wake Forest as 12-point favorites.  Wake Forest and Boston College both are worse teams than this underrated Virginia squad.

Virginia is undervalued right now due to its 3-6 record this year.  But this team has been better than its record would indicate with a ton of narrow losses this season.  The Cavaliers only lost 27-34 at home to Notre Dame as 14-point dogs after a last-second TD by the Fighting Irish.  They also only lost on the road to a ranked Pitt team 19-26 as 8-point dogs, at ranked UNC 13-26 as 16-point dogs, and at Miami 21-27 as 6.5-points dogs.

In fact, the Cavaliers are 3-0-1 against the spread on the road this season.  They lost by 18 to UCLA, by 13 to UNC, by 7 to Pitt and by 6 to Miami.  I would ranked UCLA and UNC as better teams than Louisville, and Pitt and Miami as near equals to the Cardinals.  Even in that 13-point loss to UNC, the Cavaliers committed five turnovers and gave the game away.  Yet they still only lost by 13 with those five turnovers.

Virginia still realistically believes it can make a bowl game with a win Saturday.  That's entirely possible because the Cavaliers host both Duke and Virginia Tech to close out the season, which are two very beatable teams.  So the Cavaliers won't be lacking any motivation this week.  They won outright 23-21 as 4-point home dogs to Louisville last year.  I look for them to give the Cardinals a run for their money again in the rematch.

Louisville is 1-9 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 home games with a total set between 42.5 and 49.  With the total set at 47.5 this week, oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring affair.  That certainly favored the underdog catching 14 points here in what should be a closely-contested battle throughout.  The Cavaliers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record, including 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. winning teams.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* College Football TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Ohio State/Illinois OVER 55

Ohio State is coming off an ugly, low-scoring affair in a 28-14 win over Minnesota last week.  That low output from both teams has the oddsmakers setting this total lower than it should be.  This is one of my favorite college football totals of the season as Ohio State may score 55 points on its own.

Cardale Jones had to start at QB for Ohio State last week due to a 1-game suspension of J.T. Barrett.  Jones struggled again, which he has all season, so it was no surprise.  But Barrett is going to return this week, and it's well documented how much better this Ohio State offense has been with him at the helm.

Barrett has only started one game this season, which was a 49-7 win at Rutgers.  He completed 14 of 18 passes for 223 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing 13 times for 101 yards and two more scores.  I expect him to have a monster day Saturday as he is out to make amends to his team for his lack in judgment in getting suspended in the first place.

Illinois is going to do its part in helping aid this OVER.  The Fighting Illini are coming off their best offensive output of the season, scoring 48 points and racking up 595 yards of total offense in a win over Purdue last week.  They rushed for 382 yards as a team, and stud RB Josh Ferguson played his first game since October 3, carrying 12 times for 133 yards in the win.  Having Ferguson back healthy for this offense I believe is getting overlooked here.

Just look at the last three meetings between these teams, and you'll love the OVER as well.  Ohio State and Illinois have combined for 69, 95 and 74 points in their last three meetings.  That's an average of 79.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points more than today's posted total of 55.

Ohio State has done most of the heavy lifting in those three games over the past three seasons.  It scored 55 points and gained 545 yards last year, scored 60 points and gained 591 yards in 2013, and scored 52 points and gained 567 yards in 2012.  As you can see, it has nearly covered the 55-point total itself in these three games.  But Illinois has its best offense in quite some time this year with QB Wes Lunt throwing for 2,000 yards with 12 touchdowns against four interceptions this year.

Ohio State is 9-1 to the OVER after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Plays on the OVER on any team against the total (OHIO ST) - excellent rushing team (at least 4.8 YPR) against a team with an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 1.5 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 37-9 (80.4%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +15

This is the first time since 2013 that Northwestern has been a double-digit Big Ten favorite.  They lost outright the last time they were laying this kind of weight in a conference game.  With wins over Nebraska and Penn State by a combined four points in their last two games, the betting public is back to overvaluing this the Wildcats this week laying more than two touchdowns to Purdue.

At the same time, Purdue comes in undervalued after getting crushed at home by Illinois last week 48-14.  The betting public is quick to forget that Purdue beat Nebraska 55-45 at home the previous week as 7.5-point underdogs.  David Blough is a good young quarterback, and he threw for 274 yards and four TDs in that win over the Huskers.

What I really like about this play is that Purdue has gone on the road and covered the spread against Michigan State and Wisconsin already this season, and both of those teams are better than Northwestern.  Purdue only lost 21-24 at Michigan State as 23-point underdogs and 7-24 at Wisconsin as identical 23-point dogs.

It's tough for teams with such poor offenses like Northwestern to put away teams by double-digits.  The Wildcats are only averaging 21.1 points and 338.9 yards per game this year.  Take out their 41-point effort against Eastern Illinois, and they are only putting up 18.6 points per game.  They have been held to an average of 281.4 yards per game and 4.2 per play in Big Ten action.

Yes, Northwestern won 38-14 at Purdue last year, but this is a much better Purdue team than last year's version.  Plus, the Boilermakers gave that game away by committing five turnovers.  In their last trip to Evanston, the Boilermakers won 20-17 outright as 8-point underdogs.  I wouldn't rule out the outright upset here, either.

Pat Fitzgerald is only 12-22 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Northwestern.  Fitzgerald is 3-14 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or worse as the coach of the Wildcats.  The Boilermakers are 5-0-2 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Northwestern is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games, which includes a 24-19 win over lowly Ball State as 17.5-point favorites this year.  Roll with Purdue Saturday.

15* USC/Colorado ESPN 2 Total ANNIHILATOR on OVER 59

USC features one of the best offenses in the country and will score at will on this Colorado defense.  The Trojans are averaging 37.4 points and 480.1 yards per game this season.  They'll be up against a Colorado defense that's giving up 36.2 points and 486.2 yards per game in Pac-12 play.

Colorado does have an underrated offense that is putting up 27.9 points and 425.0 yards per game this season.  The Buffaloes have put up 31 points on Arizona and 31 pints on UCLA this year, and they can find some success against a USC defense that is allowing 29.0 points per game in its last four contests.

But what really makes me like this OVER is the recent history between these teams.  USC and Colorado combined for 86 points in a 56-28 Trojans' victory last year, and 76 points in a 47-29 Trojans' win two years ago.  Cody Kessler threw seven touchdown passes against this Colorado defense last season.

Colorado is 9-1 to the OVER when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last two seasons.  We're seeing an average of 74.0 points per game scored in these games.  Three of USC's four games have seen 66 or more combined points since offensive coordinator Clay Helton was promoted to head coach.  Four of Colorado's six games in Pac-12 play have seen 65 or more combined points.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* VA Tech/GA Tech ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 53.5

While I don’t see a ton of value in the spread as both teams have been wildly inconsistent and unpredictable this season, I do believe there is value with the UNDER 53.5 points in this game. Neither team has lit it up offensively this season, but both feature better-than-average defenses. And their familiarity with one another is what makes the under such a great play.

Virginia Tech is giving up 24.3 points and 345 yards per game this season, while Georgia Tech is allowing 26.1 points and 365 yards per game. The Hokies are holding opposing offenses to 27 yards below their season averages, while the Yellow Jackets are holding foes to 39 yards below their season averages. Both teams are only average offensively with the Hokies putting up 373 yards per game and the Yellow Jackets 403 yards per game.

You have to consider that Virginia Tech’s defensive numbers would be even better and its offensive numbers even worse if not for a 3-OT thriller against Duke two games back. This was a 24-24 game at the end of regulation before the Blue Devils eventually won 45-43. Aside from that game, VA Tech held Pitt to 13 points, NC State to 13, and Boston College to 10 in three of its past five contests.

Georgia Tech has been improving defensively as the season has gone on. It held Florida State to just 16 points and 280 total yards two games ago, which is no small feat. This team is desperate to win its final three games to keep its bowl streak alive. I look for the Yellow Jackets to play another inspired effort defensively at home in this one and to shut down this lackluster VA Tech offense.

The head-to-head history in recent years tells the story. Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech have combined for 51 or fewer points in seven of their last eight meetings. They’ve combined for 51, 27, 37, 63, 49, 51, 37 and 30 points in the last eight meetings, respectively. That’s an average of 43.1 combined points per game, which is more than 10 points less than this posted total of 53.5.  That's why there's so much value with this UNDER tonight.

Virginia Tech is 6-0 UNDER in road games against ACC opponents over the last two seasons. Georgia Tech is 21-8 UNDER in its last 29 Thursday games. The UNDER is 18-3 in Hokies last 21 Thursday games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Hokies last five games following a bye week. Both teams have had nearly two weeks to prepare for this game, which certainly favors the defenses and will aid the UNDER here.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* MAC Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Western Michigan +3

This is a Western Michigan team that I picked to win the MAC this season with all they had returning. They had 16 starters back and were a loss to NIU in the season finale away from playing in the title game last year. So far, they haven’t disappointed this season, going 5-0 within the conference and needing to keep winning to make sure that they aren’t left out this season.

Offensively, the Broncos have been explosive, averaging 38.0 points, 485.8 yards per game and 6.9 per play against opposing defenses that allow 30.9 points, 425 yards per game and 6.1 per play. Zach Terrell is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 2,369 yards with 23 touchdowns and six interceptions this season.  The Broncos also average 208 rushing yards per game, and their balance offensively will be key in keeping Matt Johnson and the Bowling Green offense off the field.

Bowling Green also has an explosive offense, but the difference in this game is going to be defense. Western Michigan is much better on that side of the ball, giving up 389.2 yards per game. Bowling Green is allowing 434.2 yards per game this season for comparison’s sake. I simply look for the Broncos to get more stops in this one and for that to be the difference.

Both teams are coming off blowout wins last week. Western Michigan beat Ball State 54-7, while Bowling Green thumped Ohio 62-24. The difference is that the Broncos’ game was actually a blowout, while the Falcons’ game was not. WMU outgained Ball State 711-152 for the game, or by a ridiculous 559 total yards. Bowling Green only outgained Ohio 581-543, or by 38 total yards. That game against the Bobcats was much closer than the final score showed.  Keep in mind that Western Michigan beat Ohio 49-14 on the road, outgaining the Bobcats by 213 yards in the process.  Ohio is the lone common opponent between these teams.

It has been a long string of dominance for the Broncos, who have won five straight coming into this one dating back to their 41-39 home win over Central Michigan. They went on to beat Ohio 49-14 on the road while outgaining them by 213 yards, beat Miami Ohio 35-13 at home, beat Eastern Michigan 58-28 on the road, and beat Ball State 54-7 at home. The only losses the Broncos have suffered this year have come against three of the better teams in the country in Michigan State, Georgia Southern and Ohio State.

Western Michigan has owned Bowling Green in recent years, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Broncos topped the Falcons 26-14 on the road last year while outgaining them 361-274. Terrell threw two touchdown passes while Javion Franklin rushed for 149 yards and a score in the win. The Broncos held the Falcons to just 274 total yards and 14 first downs. Their better defense will be the difference in this game as well.

Western Michigan is 9-1 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 10-1 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years. Western Michigan is 9-1 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last two seasons. The Broncos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Roll with Western Michigan Wednesday.

20* Toledo/Central Michigan MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan +4.5

The Central Michigan Chippewas have been underrated all season and they are again here as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Toledo Rockets. They come in with an impressive 5-4 record when you consider how tough their schedule has been, which includes a tremendous 8-1 record against the spread. That right there just shows how undervalued this team has been all season.

I like the fact that the Chippewas have extra time to prepare for this game. They last played on October 31, while Toledo played last Tuesday on November 3. The Rockets suffered a devastating 27-32 loss to Northern Illinois that is likely going to keep them out of the MAC Title game. I look for them to suffer a hangover effect from that defeat and to not put their best foot forward this week.

Central Michigan’s four losses have come against four very good teams in Oklahoma State (13-24) as 21-point dogs, Syracuse (27-30) as 8-point dogs, Michigan State (10-30) as 25.5-point dogs and Western Michigan (39-41) as 5-point dogs. Three of those four losses came on the road. They actually outgained Western Michigan by five yards, Michigan State by 16 yards, and Syracuse by 194 yards. They were only outgained by 77 yards by Oklahoma State, which is 9-0 and a playoff contender. Those results just show what the Chippewas are capable of.

Central Michigan is 3-0 in its last three home games with double-digit wins over Monmouth (31-10), Northern Illinois (29-19) and Buffalo (51-14). So, the Rockets and Chippewas have a common opponent in Northern Illinois. Both of them played the Huskies at home with the Chippewas winning by 10 and the Rockets losing by 5.

I just simply believe that Toledo is one of the most overrated teams in the country. That’s why I faded the Rockets last week as 7.5-point favorites over Northern Illinois. They were getting too much credit for their wins over Arkansas and Iowa State earlier this season. They shouldn’t have won either of those games as they were outgained by 197 yards by the Razorbacks and by 172 yards by the Cyclones. I believe they’re still getting too much credit for their 7-1 record and those two wins.

Central Michigan has one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Cooper Rush, who is completing 69.0 percent of his passes for 2,626 yards with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has put up those numbers against a much tougher schedule than Toledo has had to face this season. This defense is also underrated. The Chippewas are only giving up 21.7 points, 318 yards per game and 5.0 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.1 points, 384 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) – off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a road win are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1992. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday games. The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Central Michigan is 44-20-2 ATS in its last 66 games following an ATS win.  Bet Central Michigan Tuesday.

15* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington -1.5

The Washington Huskies are going to be contenders in the Pac-12 for years to come now that Chris Petersen is getting his players in place.  They may be just 4-4 this season, but from what I've seen from them, they can beat any team in the country.  They've even proven that at times this year.

The Huskies could be 7-1 right now because they've lost some heartbreakers to some very good teams in Boise State (13-16) on the road, California (24-30) at home and Oregon (20-26) at home.  Their only blowout loss came at Stanford 14-31 as 14.5-point underdogs, and even that wasn't that big of a blowout.  Plus, QB Jake Browning missed the Stanford game with a shoulder injury, but returned to throw a season-high 4 TD passes against Arizona last week.

Washington has gone on the road and beaten USC 17-12 as 17-point underdogs, which is a tremendous performance because USC is a lot better team than its record.  After some tough losses since that win, the Huskies came through with their most complete performance of the season in a 49-3 beat down of Arizona at home last week.  They racked up 468 yards of total offense while the defense forced four Arizona turnovers in the win.

Washington leads the Pac-12 in scoring defense, giving up just 20.4 points per game in conference play.  Arizona had been averaging 41.8 points before being held to just a field goal last week.  Now the Huskies will be up against one of the worst offenses they've played in Utah.

The Utes are so predictable offensively because they rely on Devontae Booker too much.  Booker averages 156.0 yards from scrimmage, accounting for 43.2 percent of the team's scrimmage yards.  His 232 touches leads the nation.  But because the Utes continue to get shaky QB play from Travis Wilson, I cannot take them seriously.

They are very fortune to be 7-1 this season.  The Utes have actually been outgained in four of their eight games this season by USC, Cal, Utah State and Michigan.  They are only outgaining opponents by an average of 24.3 yards per game on the season, which isn't what you'd expect from a 7-1 team.  They struggled to put away Oregon State last week before getting a couple late scores to win 27-12 as 26-point home favorites.

The numbers really show that Washington is the better team in this one.  The Huskies average 5.9 yards per play on offense against opposing defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play.  The Huskies only give up 4.8 yards per play against opponents that average 6.1 per play.  Utah averages 5.6 yards per play on offense against defenses that allow 5.4 per play.  The Utes allow 5.2 per play against opposing offenses that average 5.8 per play.  Utah has never beaten Washington as Pac-12 opponents.  Bet Washington Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oregon State +17.5

The betting public wants nothing to do with the Oregon State Beavers.  They are just 2-6 on the season and 0-5 in Pac-12 play.  As a result, oddsmakers have been forced to set their numbers higher than they should be here of late. I took advantage by backing them as 26-point road underdogs against Utah last week, and I'll back them again as 17.5-point home dogs against UCLA this week.

What I see from this Oregon State outfit is an improving team as the season goes on.  The Beavers should have beaten Colorado in a 13-17 home loss.  They outgained the Buffaloes by 73 yards and held them to just 328 yards of total offense.  That's the same Colorado team that only lost 31-35 at home to UCLA as 23.5-point underdogs last week.  The Buffaloes even outgained the Bruins by a whopping 154 total yards and should have won that game.

Then last week against the No. 3 ranked team in the country in Utah, Oregon State put up a fight for four quarters on the road.  The Beavers eventually lost 12-27 as 26-point underdogs, but this was a 24-12 game with eight minutes to play.  They were only outgained 312-372 by the Utes for their second straight strong defensive performance.  Their defense will keep them in this game against UCLA, too.

No team has been hit harder by injuries this season than UCLA.  The Bruins were already without star LB Myles Jack and leading tackler Isaako Savaiinaea, but then inside linebacker Kenny Young had to leave the Colorado game with an upper-body injury.  Josh Woods, a freshman who had been on track to redshirt, was then pressed into action for the first time before suffering hamstring injury.  The injuries just keep coming, especially to the LB corps.

"Man, the injuries have reached just comical proportions," said Deon Hollins, who returned against Colorado after missing one game because of a knee injury.  "I've never seen it," receiver Jordan Payton said. "I haven't even heard of something like this before. It's crazy, but that is a part of football. We play a game with a 100 percent injury rate, so it's going to happen."

Those injuries left UCLA able to only run two defenses for most of the game against Colorado.  The Buffaloes' offense officially ran a school-record 114 plays, one shy of the FBS single-game record.  So the Bruins were on the field for most of the game, and I don't believe they'll be fully recovered in time to face the Beavers this week after giving up 554 total yards to the Buffaloes.

Oregon State is a run-first team that is averaging 179 rushing yards per game this season.  That bodes well for the Beavers.  The Bruins have struggled to stop the run due to all of the injuries at linebacker.  They rank last in the Pac-12 and in the bottom 20 nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (208), and that total has ballooned to 245.8 yards in conference play.  So the Beavers will be able to shorten this game with their rushing attack, which will help them easily stay within this 17.5-point spread.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years as each of the last four meetings between UCLA and Oregon State have been decided by 8 points or less.  Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON ST) - after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  UCLA is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games off two or more consecutive home wins.  The Bruins are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

15* TCU/Oklahoma State Big 12 Battle of Unbeatens on TCU -5

The TCU Horned Frogs are getting the shaft once again from the playoff committee with the release of the first rankings on November 3. Despite going 12-1 last year with their only loss to Baylor by 3 points on the road, and opening 8-0 this year, they are only No. 8 in the playoff rankings. Look for them to take out their frustration on the Oklahoma State Cowboys this weekend to come away with a blowout victory.

Sure, the Horned Frogs have some close road wins this season over Minnesota, Texas Tech and Kansas State. But none of those three places are easy atmospheres. Plus, the Horned Frogs were banged up big-time defensively in all three of those games. But their defense is slowly getting healthy, and now it’s starting to play up to the level that it did last year.

In fact, TCU has only allowed 10 points in the last seven quarters to Iowa State and West Virginia. After falling behind 21-14 to Iowa State, it held the Cyclones scoreless for the final three quarters to pull away for a 45-21 road win. Last week, the Horned Frogs put together their most complete performance yet in a 40-10 home win over West Virginia. They outgained the Mountaineers 616-327 for the game.  The Mountaineers had 27 consecutive games of at least 350 total yards snapped in that loss.  They were averaging 486 yards per game coming in.

The Horned Frogs' last four opponents have only scored a combined 17 points after halftime, so Gary Patterson and company are making some serious adjustments at the break that have paid big dividends.  The Horned Frogs have used 16 first-time starters this year on defense, so their depth is really improving as the season goes alone.

Starting seniors Davion Pierson and Mike Tuaua have been back on the right side of the defensive line after both missed three games.  Pierson is the most experienced starter with 35 career starts, 10 more than senior safety Derrick Kindred.  ''Like a spark, he comes back with all this energy, his craziness. We just feed of him, great to have him back,'' defensive tackle Aaron Curry said of Pierson. ''He has this energy about him that everybody feeds off.''

Common opponents are a great way to compare teams. Both teams have faced Kansas State, Texas, Texas Tech and West Virginia this season. TCU is 4-0 against those four teams, outscoring them by 20.8 points per game and outgaining them by 220.3 yards per game. Oklahoma State is also 4-0 against those four teams, but it is only outscoring them by 7.3 points per game, and outgaining them by 45.8 yards per game. TCU has been 13.5 PPG and 174 YPG better than Oklahoma State in those four games.  It’s clear by those numbers that the Horned Frogs are the superior team.

Oklahoma State will be a little gassed from the shootout it played at Texas Tech last week. It needed a 42-15 second half to beat the Red Raiders 70-53. The Cowboys won’t be able to match the energy of the Horned Frogs, who breezed to a 40-10 win at West Virginia last Thursday. That means they will have an extra two days of rest prior to this weekend’s game.

Last year, TCU crushed Oklahoma State 42-9 at home in a game that wasn’t even that close. The Horned Frogs outgained the Cowboys 676-258 for the game, or by 418 total yards.  Trevone Boykin threw for 410 yards, including 225 and two touchdowns to stud receiver Josh Doctson, who is having a monster year again in 2015.  While I don’t expect that kind of blowout again, I do believe it’s fair to assume that the Horned Frogs will win this game by a touchdown or more.

TCU is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games off a Thursday game. The Horned Frogs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 conference games. TCU is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games overall.  Plays against a home team (OKLAHOMA ST) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after two straight wins by 17 or more points are 56-24 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take TCU Saturday.

15* FSU/Clemson ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Florida State +11

At 8-0 and ranked No. 3 in the country, the Clemson Tigers have earned the faith of the betting public. They have gone 5-2-1 ATS through those eight games, and if you bet on them early in the week, then you would be 7-1 as their lines just keep moving in favor of them throughout the week. That’s because the betting public has really gravitated toward this team with the way they are playing right now. As a result, I believe Clemson is simply laying too many points this week against Florida State.

Clemson has played a pretty soft schedule up to this point with its lone signature win coming at home against Notre Dame by a final of 24-22 as 3-point favorites in the slop. The Tigers were actually outgained by 141 yards by the Fighting Irish and were fortunate to win that game. I’m just not sold that this team is a national title contender at this point in the season due to the softness of the schedule.

Florida State would be 8-0 as well if not for a blocked field goal on the game’s final play that was returned for a touchdown at Georgia Tech. It was the first regular season loss for the Seminoles in three years and only their second loss overall in the past three seasons combined. But somehow, this team just doesn’t get much credit for what it has done, and what it is doing.

This will certainly be the first time in the past three years that the Seminoles have been double-digit dogs, and if you were ever going to back them, this would be the time.  Florida State has never been a double-digit dog under Jimbo Fisher.  In fact, the Seminoles have only been an underdog to Clemson twice in the last 35 years, and they won both of those games outright.

I love the resiliency the Seminoles showed last week in bouncing back from that loss to Georgia Tech with a 45-21 home win over Syracuse. They dominated that game, outgaining the Orange 575-303. They did so without two of their studs in Everett Golson and Dalvin Cook, who were both out with injury.

While both Golson and Cook are probable, I don’t think it would matter either way. Sean Maguire is a veteran quarterback who can handle the load, and he proved it last week with 348 passing yards and three touchdowns without an interception against Syracuse. Jacques Patrick filled in nicely for Cook, rushing for 162 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries. The Seminoles are a deep, talented team who can use the ‘next man up’ mentality because of their depth.

Last year, Maguire saved Florida State’s season against Clemson. He played the entire game in place of an injured Jameis Winston and led the Seminoles to a 23-17 (OT) victory. Maguire threw for 304 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in the win. And that was against a much better Clemson defense than the one the Seminoles will be up against Saturday. The Tigers allowed 41 points to NC State last week and aren’t as good on that side of the ball as they are getting credit for with just three starters back from last year.

The Seminoles are 3-0 in their last three meetings with the Tigers. In their only trip to Clemson during this stretch, they won 51-14 as 5-point favorites in 2013. They outgained the Tigers 565-326 for the game. They have only lost to Clemson by double-digits once in the last nine meetings in this series. I believe they can stay within double-digits of the Tigers this weekend as well, and I'm not ruling out the outright upset.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Middle Tennessee -2.5

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are in danger of missing a bowl game for a second consecutive season.  They went 6-6 last year and didn't get invited to a bowl, and despite returning 16 starters this year, they sit at just 3-5 and needed three more wins in their final four games to become bowl eligible.

It's safe to say that the Blue Raiders will be putting their best foot forward this week against Marshall as a result.  Their bye week couldn't have come at a better time as it has given them a chance to regroup and refocus.  I look for their best effort of the season here Saturday against a Marshall team that played last week and hasn't had a bye yet, so they are tired.

Middle Tennessee is way better than its 3-5 record would indicate.  It has lost to two Power 5 teams in Vanderbilt (13-17) and Illinois (25-27) by a combined 6 points.  It has already had to go on the road and play Alabama, Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech as well.  You would be hard-pressed to find many other teams who have played as difficult a schedule as the Blue Raiders up to this point.

But Middle Tennessee has taken care of business at home, going 3-1 while outscoring the opposition by an average of 29.8 points per game.  Its offense has averaged 49.5 points and 527.2 yards per game at home, while its defense has only given up 19.7 points and 320.7 yards per game.  Two years ago, Middle Tennessee pulled the 51-49 upset of Marshall as 10-point underdogs.  That was a much better Marshall team than the 2015 version.

The Thundering Herd are nowhere near as good as their 8-1 record would indicate.  They have played such a soft schedule up to this point with their nine games coming against Purdue, Ohio, Norfolk State, Kent State, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic, North Texas and Charlotte.  You would be hard-pressed to find an easier schedule in the country than that.  So the Thundering Herd aren't battle-tested, and this is going to be their stiffest test yet.

Marshall is only outgaining teams 393.7 to 349.6 on the season, which isn't the sign of an 8-1 team.  Its offense has taken a huge step back this year, averaging those 393.7 yards per game against opposing defenses that allow 424 yards per game.  The defense is only giving up 349.6 yards per game, but that's not that impressive when you consider opposing offenses only average 359 yards per game.  Now the Thundering Herd recently lost their best player in RB Devon Johnson, who had rushed for 555 yards and 6.6 per carry with five touchdowns.  He may return this week, but it's not going to matter.

Marshall has been vulnerable on the road this season.  It lost 10-21 at Ohio while getting outgained by 122 yards.  That's the same Ohio team that has blowout losses to Western Michigan (14-49), Buffalo (17-41) and Bowling Green (24-62) in its last three games.  The Thundering Herd also needed overtime to beat Kent State 36-29 on the road, and they were outgained by 159 yards in that game and shouldn't have won.  Kent State is just 3-6 this season with blowout losses to Illinois (3-52), Toledo (7-38) and Bowling Green (0-48).

Marshall is 38-62 ATS in its last 100 road games.  The Thundering Herd are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.  The home team is 4-0 straight up in four all-time meetings between these programs having never lost.  Take Middle Tennessee Saturday.

15* Penn State/Northwestern ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Penn State +1

Both Penn State and Northwestern have two losses apiece, but I have no doubt that the Nittany Lions are the better team in this one. They play in the tougher division in the Big Ten with their only losses coming to Ohio State and Temple, who are both ranked.  They have taken care of business against all lesser opponents they've faced, and I look at Northwestern as a lesser opponent.

The Wildcats have been overvalued ever since their season-opening win over Stanford.  If those teams played 10 times, the Wildcats would lose nine of them.  I believe the Wildcats' true colors showed in their 38-0 loss to Michigan where they were outgained by 212 yards, and their 10-40 home loss to Iowa where they were outgained by 294 yards.  Penn State is a very similar team to both Michigan and Iowa, but with a better quarterback.

Christian Hackenberg is starting to live up to that first-round draft status that everyone has been talking about.  Over his last six games, Hackenberg has thrown for 1,415 yards with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  He's coming off his most efficient performance of the season, hitting 21 of 29 passes for 266 yards and two touchdowns in a 39-0 blowout victory over Illinois.  The Nittany Lions just keep getting better as a team.

I trust Hackenberg to be able to make more plays than Northwestern freshman Clayton Thorson, who is completing just 52.7 percent of his passes for 1,119 yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions.  Thorson is going to be under duress all game against a Nittany Lions defense that leads the nation with 36 sacks while ranking 4th against the pass at 157.9 yards per game allowed.

Northwestern is being overvalued due to its 30-28 win at Nebraska last time out.  But Nebraska just lost to Purdue and will not be making a bowl game this season.  Plus, that was a misleading final score.  At one point, the Huskers had a 10-1 edge in first downs over the Wildcats but somehow trailed 14-6.

Penn State is outgaining Big Ten opponents by 76 yards per game, while Northwestern is getting outgained by 102 yards per game in conference play, a difference of 178 yards per game that really shows how much better the Nittany Lions are than the Wildcats.

Northwestern is 0-8 straight up in its last eight games following a bye week, so I'm not concerned at all with the fact that Northwestern gets extra time off before this one.  For whatever reason, Pat Fitzgerald just hasn't managed the bye weeks very well at all in his time at Northwestern.  The Nittany Lions will be anxious to get back on the field and they'll be playing with a ton of confidence after their best performance of the season in that 39-point win over Illinois.

The Wildcats are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.  Northwestern is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

20* College Football DOG OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt +21

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Florida Gators.  They are coming off a huge 27-3 win over their arch rivals in the Georgia Bulldogs.  Expect them to come out lacking the kind of focus it's going to take to put away this pesky Vanderbilt team by three touchdowns.

Vanderbilt was in a big letdown spot last week against Houston as it stepped out of conference following its first SEC win under second-year head coach Derek Mason.  The Commodores failed to show up and beat themselves by committing four turnovers and essentially handing Houston 21 points in a 34-0 loss.

Turnovers have been the Commodores' undoing as they've put up decent numbers overall, but are -11 in turnover differential.  The Gators, meanwhile, have benefited from one of the best turnover differentials (+13) in the country.  There is a lot of luck involved with turnovers, and the Gators wouldn't be 7-1 without them.

The Commodores have been competitive in every SEC game they've played.  Their biggest loss in SEC play came against Georgia by a final of 14-31.  But that game was much closer than the final would indicate as they were only outgained by 22 yards.  They also lost by 9 to South Carolina on the road, beat Missouri 10-3, and only lost 16-27 at Ole Miss as 27-point underdogs.

Vanderbilt has one of the best defenses in the country, which will keep it in this game against Florida.  The Commodores only give up 18.5 points per game, 323.5 yards per game and 4.9 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.3 points, 406 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  So they are holding opponents to 10.8 points, 83 yards per game and 0.9 per play less than their season averages.

It's not like Florida has the kind of explosive offense that is going to produce consistent blowouts.  The Gators only average 380.9 yards per game against opposing defenses that allow 384 yards per game.  They already have close home wins over East Carolina (31-24) and Tennessee (28-27).

Vanderbilt has only lost to Florida by more than 14 points once in the last four years, which was a 24-point loss last season in a game that was closer than the final score showed.  The last time the Commodores went to Gainesville, they won 34-17 as 12-point underdogs in 2013.

Vanderbilt is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  The Commodores are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games after playing their last game on the road.  The Commodores are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Florida blowout win over Georgia last week coupled with Vanderbilt's blowout loss to Houston has created some additional line value here that is too good to pass up.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* Temple/SMU AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on SMU +13.5

The average bettor would look at this line and assume that Temple is obviously the right side as only 13-point favorites. You have a 7-1 Temple team that is unbeaten within the conference up against a 1-7 SMU team that has lost all four of its conference games. Seems obvious, right? Well, this is where situational handicapping comes into play, and this line is smaller than the general public thinks it should be for a reason.

This is a horrible spot for Temple. It is deflated following its 20-24 home loss to then-No. 9 Notre Dame last weekend. It held a 20-17 lead with just over two minutes remaining before giving up a touchdown to the Fighting Irish to lose a heartbreaker. ESPN’s College Gameday was in Philadelphia for this game, so it was hyped up all last week. These players aren’t going to be nearly as motivated to face SMU, and I look for them to come out very flat and for the Mustangs to put it on them early and keep it close for four quarters.

When you look at the Notre Dame game, there’s no way Temple should have even had a shot to win anyways. It was outgained 295-467 by the superior Fighting Irish, or by 172 total yards. Notre Dame had three trips inside the Temple 14-yard line, which resulted in just three points due to two turnovers and a missed field goal.  That 24-20 game being closer than it really was is actually providing some additional line value here, because the Owls covered when they provably shouldn't have.

More concerning for the Owls is the lumps they took physically. Rhule said his team may be without "a number of starters" against SMU.  Rhule didn't go into specifics about the injuries, but one starter banged up over the weekend was running back Jahad Thomas. Thomas, who leads the AAC with 113.0 rushing yards per game, said he hurt his ribs against Notre Dame.  "That game really took a toll," Rhule said. "It is a really beat up, beat up football team that we have right now. ... But I think we have a lot of good backups that are waiting their turns."

The Owls were also fortunate to beat East Carolina on the road the week before. They trailed 14-10 with just under four minutes to play before scoring 14 straight points. They were outgained by the Pirates by 56 yards in that game. They have actually been outgained in four of their eight games this season, so they aren’t as good as their 7-1 record shows.  They have been outgained in three of their four road games by 56 yards by ECU, by 32 yards by lowly Charlotte, and by 261 yards by Cincinnati in a very fluky win.  They only outgained a bad UMass team by 20 yards on the road and beat them 25-23 as similar 13.5-point favorites.

Despite being 1-7, I have no doubt that SMU is a better team than that record indicates. A lot of that can be blamed on the schedule as the Mustangs have had to face three teams that are still unbeaten on the season in Baylor, TCU and Houston. They covered the spread in all three of those games, and only lost to TCU 37-56 on the road as 37-point underdogs in what was a one-score game in the 4th quarter.

The last three weeks, the Mustangs are 0-3 with losses to Houston (28-49), USF (14-38) and Tulsa (31-40), but a closer look at the box scores shows that those games were closer than the finals would indicate. They were only outgained by 58 yards at Houston, they outgained South Florida by 13 yards, and they were only outgained by 13 yards against Tulsa.  Those were some misleading final scores to say the least.

Former Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris has done a great job improving this SMU offense and making it competitive. The Mustangs are putting up 28.7 points and 414.2 yards per game this season. Quarterback Matt Davis can do it all as he’s throwing for 1,775 yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 450 yards and seven scores.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SMU) – good passing team (230-275 PY/G) against an average passing defense (175-230 PY/G) after 8+ games are 71-32 (68.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. SMU is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 or fewer yards per game.  Bet SMU Friday.

15* Baylor/K-State Big 12 ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -16.5

The Baylor Bears just plug in quarterbacks and keep churning out massive offensive numbers, which is why I'm not concerned about the season-ending injury to Seth Russell.  The bye week came at a great time as freshman Jarrett Stidham has had nearly two weeks to get ready for Kansas State now.

Because the Bears have outscored teams by an average of 36.0 points per game this season, Stidham has seen action in all seven games.  He's gone 24 of 28 for 331 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Stidham came to Baylor in January 2014 as one of the nation's most highly touted recruits.

"Stidham's deal is he's been going all along anyway. In practice, our backups get as many reps as our starters," head coach Art Briles said. "From that standpoint, there was no difference there except he was working with a few different people over the last few practices. I’d be totally shocked if he’s not very composed, very competitive, very intelligent, and very on cue with everything he does Thursday for our football team".

The Bears are the nation's highest-scoring team at 61.1 points per game and they lead the country at 686.1 yards per game.  But what really makes them a national title contender is that they may have the best defense in the Big 12.  They are holding opponents to 25.1 points, 382.4 yards per game and 4.9 per play who average 30.2 points, 429 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  And that's really impressive when you consider a lot of those yards given up have come in garbage time with the game already decided.

While this is probably the best team in the history of Baylor, this is one of the worst Kansas State teams that Bill Snyder has ever had.  The Wildcats have opened 3-4 with their only wins coming against South Dakota, UTSA and Louisiana Tech (in overtime).  They were even outgained by 96 yards at home by Louisiana Tech.

The Wildcats have opened 0-4 in Big 12 play and will fall to 0-5 for the first time ever in conference action.  They did play TCU and Oklahoma State tough, but they were outgained by 158 yards by the Horned Frogs and by 139 yards by the Cowboys.  They were outgained by 458 yards in a 0-55 home loss to Oklahoma.  They were outgained by 131 yards in a 9-23 loss at Texas, which was just shut out 24-0 by Iowa State.

“You know a lot of us, myself included, have not really been here before,” Kansas State coach Bill Snyder told reporters of the losing streak. “So, it is a matter of having the answers of how to overcome the complexity and the difficulty of what has taken place.”

I just see no way this Kansas State offense can put up enough points to stay within 16.5 of Baylor.  The Wildcats were held to 110 total yards by Oklahoma and 242 yards by Texas.  QB Joe Hubener is 30-of-78 passing for 378 yards with one touchdown and five interceptions in Big 12 play.  He's not going to start magically lighting up this underrated Baylor defense.

Plays against a home team (KANSAS ST) - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 225 or less total yards/game over their last two games are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Bears are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall, including 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Baylor Thursday.

15* Ohio/Bowling Green MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 68

Because Bowling Green is a team that has been putting up a lot of points against bad defenses this year, the oddsmakers have been forced to over-inflate this total tonight.  But the Falcons will be up against a much better defensive team than their used to in Ohio.

Indeed, Ohio is only giving up 23.0 points and 366.7 yards per game this season.  The Bobcats are a run-first team that likes to control the clock and keep opposing offenses off the field.  But they aren't great offensively as they are averaging 25.5 points and 386.1 yards per game.

Bowling Green is better defensively than it gets credit for.  It is giving up 28.5 points and 421 yards per game this season against opposing offenses that average 27.9 points and 394 yards per game.  It has really picked up its play defensively following a tough non-conference schedule.

The Falcons are only allowing 17.5 points and 363.2 yards per game in MAC play.  They have given up 10 combined points in their last two games.  They only allowed 10 points and 271 total yards to Akron and shut out Kent State while allowing just 166 total yards.

Ohio's offense has really bogged down in conference play.  It is scoring just 19.7 points and averaging 357.7 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play against MAC opponents.  It was held to 14 points against Akron, 14 against Western Michigan and 17 against Buffalo in its three losses.

Looking at the recent history of this series, it's easy to see that there's value with the UNDER.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined outputs of 44, 49, 40 and 57 points.  That's an average of 47.5 combined points per game, which is 20.5 points less than tonight's posted total of 68.

Ohio is 9-0 UNDER in its last nine games vs. good offensive teams who score 34 or more points per game.  We're seeing 51.2 combined points per game in this spot.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NIU/Toledo MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois +8

Every year it seems like the talk is how Toledo is going to finally overtake Northern Illinois in the MAC West, and every year the Rockets find a way to lose to the Huskies. Neither team has been more than an 11.5-point favorite in any of the last eight meetings. But Northern Illinois is 5-0 in the last five meetings and simply has Toledo’s number.

In fact, Northern Illinois is 6-1 in its last seven meetings with Toledo with its only loss coming by a final of 19-20 on the road in 2009.  The Huskies have won by 3, 18, 7, 3, 35 and 31 points in the other six meetings.   That makes for a perfect 7-0 system backing the Huskies dating back to 2008 pertaining to this +7.5-point spread.  Getting 7.5 points here with the Huskies is where the value lies. 

Despite having three more losses than Toledo this season, I would argue that Northern Illinois (5-3) is every bit as good. The three losses for the Huskies have all come on the road and to quality opponents, all by 10 points or less. They only lost 13-20 at defending national champion Ohio State while only allowing 298 total yards to the Buckeyes as 34-point underdogs. That effort alone showed what the Huskies are capable of this season.

Northern Illinois’ other two losses came at Boston College (14-17) and at Central Michigan (19-29). It’s no shame to lose to an ACC team like the Eagles by a field goal on the road. And when you look at the CMU game, the Huskies actually outgained the Chippewas 316-275 but gave the game away by committing four turnovers. They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS since with blowout wins over Ball State (59-41), Miami Ohio (45-12) and Eastern Michigan (49-21).

Toledo is overvalued due to its 7-0 record and No. 20 national ranking. The Rockets should be 5-2 at best right now. They were outgained by 197 yards in their 16-12 win at Arkansas that was a complete fluke as the Razorbacks only managed 12 points despite gaining 515 total yards. The Rockets were also outgianed by 172 yards in a 30-23 (OT) home win over Iowa State. The Cyclones missed a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation that would have won it for them and clearly outplayed the Rockets the entire game.

So, I actually come away more impressed with Northern Illinois’ two losses against Ohio State and Boston College than Toledo’s two wins against Arkansas and Iowa State. I really do think these are two evenly-matched teams, and if anything the Huskies are the better squad. They should have no problem staying within a touchdown of the Rockets this week and will be looking for another statement win in this series.

The numbers also show that these teams are pretty much equals. The Huskies gain 5.8 yards per play against opponents that allow 5.9 yards per play, while the Rockets gain 6.1 yards per play against opponents that allow 5.9 yards per play. The Huskies allow 4.7 yards per play against opponents that average 5.4 yards per play, so they have a very underrated defense. The Rockets give up 4.9 yards per play against teams that average 5.5 per play.

The Huskies are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games. Northern Illinois is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by more than 20 points. The Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. Toledo is 2-7 ATS in its last nine Tuesday games. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Northern Illinois Tuesday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota +13

The Michigan Wolverines are being treated like they are one of the best teams in the country with this 13-point spread. They certainly are improved under Jim Harbaugh, but asking them to go on the road and to put away a pesky Minnesota team by two touchdowns to beat us is asking too much. I believe there is some serious line value with the Golden Gophers at home this week.

Both teams are coming off their byes, so there’s no real advantage there. But I will say that Michigan’s bye couldn’t have come at a worse time. Nobody wants to practice for two straight weeks after losing the way that the Wolverines did to Michigan State. That blocked punt return TD was about the worst way you could lose a game. I still believe these players are feeling a hangover effect from that loss and won’t bring their best effort against Minnesota this week after essentially having their Big Ten and national title hopes crushed.

Minnesota is consistently undervalued year in and year out under Jerry Kill. The guy just keeps finding ways to keep the Golden Gophers competitive, and that has been the case again this year. They are off to a 4-3 start and still very much alive in the Big Ten West race. Their first four games were all decided by 6 points or less, which included a 17-23 loss to national title contender TCU.

But Kill has decided to step down this week due to health reasons, and the players will be trying to win this game to honor him, which just adds to their motivation.  The interim coach will be Tracy Claeys.  He filled that role for seven games in 2013 and did a tremendous job while Kill took a break for the same health reasons.  Indeed, Minnesota was a dog in six of those seven games with Claeys as the coach, and he guided them to a 6-1 ATS record with outright upsets of Northwestern, Nebraska and Indiana.

Minnesota has actually gone 5-0 ATS in its last five as a home underdog with upsets of Nebraska (+10) and Iowa (51-14), along with near upsets of eventual national champ Ohio State (lost by 7) and No. 2 ranked TCU (lost by 6) in recent seasons.

The Golden Gophers did lose 27-0 on the road to Northwestern earlier this year, but they only allowed 312 total yards to the Wildcats in that game. They came back with a 41-13 win at Purdue the following week before losing to Nebraska 25-48 at home last time out. But that was a 38-25 game late in the fourth quarter before the Huskers added 10 points late, including an interception return for a TD. The Gophers were outgained by less than 100 yards by the Huskers.

Both of these teams are really built to play in close games, which is why the +13 here has a lot of value. Both teams rely on their defenses, which is why this total has only been set at 39 points. Oddsmakers are expecting a very low-scoring game, which favors the underdog. It would take roughly a 27-13 score for this line to match up with the total, and I don’t see the Wolverines getting to 27 points.

Minnesota has only allowed more than 27 points once this season. It is giving up just 23.1 points, 328.7 yards per game and 4.6 per play against opposing offenses that average 28.1 points, 406 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  It is holding opponents to 5.0 points, 77.3 yards and 0.9 per play below their season averages.  Now the Golden Gophers will be up against a Michigan offense that simply lacks firepower, which is going to make it hard to cover this big spread on the road.

The Wolverines are only averaging 28.6 points, 367.6 yards per game and 5.3 per play against opposing defenses that allow 25.5 points, 380 yards per game and 5.4 per play. So, Michigan essentially has a below-average offense. Jake Rudock is not a very good quarterback as the Wolverines are only averaging 186 passing yards per game. Minnesota defends the run pretty well, allowing 3.9 yards per carry this season.

Last year, Minnesota thoroughly dominated Michigan 30-14 on the road behind a strong defensive effort. It outgained the Wolverines 373-171 for the game, or by 202 total yards. I look for this Minnesota defense to limit what Rudock and company can do again, and for that to be the reason this game goes down to the wire with the Golden Gophers getting the cover in the end.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MINNESOTA) – after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 224-143 (61%) ATS since 1992. The Wolverines are 12-26-1 ATS in their last 39 road games. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week. Minnesota is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 conference games.  Roll with Minnesota Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon State +27

The Utah Utes continue to be way overvalued here.  I have faded them in three straight games with a 2-1 ATS record.  They only won 30-24 at home against Cal as 7-point favorites and would have lost that game if not for 6 turnovers by the Golden Bears.  They managed to cover as 5-point favorites in a 34-18 home win over Arizona State the next week despite trailing 14-18 entering the fourth quarter.

But their luck ran out last week against a better team in USC, losing 24-42 on the road as 6.5-point underdogs.  Now I question the Utes' state of mind knowing that their national title hopes took a serious hit last week.  Sure, they can win out and would still have a chance to make the four-team playoff, but it's not likely.  Frankly, I don't think they're good enough to win out anyway.  But it's clear that loss and where they stand is still on the players and coach's minds.

''Life moves on. We have to be ready for the next game, the next opponent and the next challenge. Like I said, we still control our own destiny. We can't let this (loss at USC) affect us in a negative way. There can be no hangover in this next game from last week.'' said head coach Kyle Whittingham.

''My guess is that there won't be any undefeated teams in the Power 5 at the end of the season, maybe one,'' Whittingham said. ''When you look back, it's really hard to go undefeated. We don't really care about anything but this week, but historically, it's really hard to go undefeated.''

''If you had told us in August that seven games in, we'd be 6-1 with a one-game lead in the South, I think we would have taken that,'' Whittingham said. ''We're not disappointed with where we are. Obviously, we're disappointed with the loss on Saturday, but we think we're in pretty good shape."

There were a lot of positives for Utah that can be taken out of those comments, but the fact that they are talking about it so much means the loss is clearly on their minds.  Even though Whittingham talks about not having a hangover, that's typically what happens after a loss like that one to USC.  He's right that they'd take being 6-1 right now because they are very fortunate to have six wins.

In fact, Utah has been outgained in four of its seven games this season.  That's the type of thing you would expect from a 3-4 team and not one that is 6-1.  I never once believed this team was a national title contender.  They are only outgaining opponents by 19.1 yards per game on the season, which is nowhere near what you would see from teams like Clemson, Ohio State and other real contenders.

Oregon State is just 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS on the season, so it could not possibly be more undervalued than it is right now.  The betting public wants nothing to do with the Beavers, which has created some artificial line inflation here as the oddsmakers know this.  I'll gladly take the 27 points here.

It also actually helps that Oregon State lost to Colorado 13-17 at home last week.  But the Beavers really dominated that game in outgaining the Buffaloes by 73 total yards.  Their offense came through with one of their best performances of the season in gaining 401 yards, while their defense also played one of its best games in giving up just 328 total yards.

The last two meetings between Utah and Oregon State have actually gone into overtime with the road team winning both times.  In fact, they have split the last six meetings in this series 3-3 and each has been decided by 19 points or less, so it has been closely contested.  I wouldn't be shocked at all if this one goes down to the wire as well even with the Beavers as 27-point dogs here.

One key to point out that may be getting overlooked is that Kilane Sitake is a first-year defensive coordinator at Oregon State.  That's important because Sitake was was an assistant at Utah for the last 11 years, including the last four as defensive coordinator.  He is very familiar with the Utes' offense and will have a great game plan to stop it.  That won't take much because the Utah offense is the weakness on the team, averaging only 390.1 yards per game.

Gary Anderson is 15-5 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached.  Oregon State is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games following a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference opponent, actually coming back to win by an average of 4.7 points per game in this spot.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Troy +24

The Troy Trojans are just 2-5 on the season, but they played about as tough of an early schedule as anyone in the country.  That tough early schedule made them battle-tested and it is starting to pay off against lesser competition.  Indeed, the Trojans are coming off their best performance of the season in a 52-7 road win at New Mexico State as only 3-point favorites.  They racked up 482 yards of total offense in the win.

In its first five games, Troy had to play road games at NC State, Wisconsin and Mississippi State.  But it actually covered the spread in two of those three games, and not once did it lose by more than 28 points to any of those three teams.  Now the oddsmakers are asking the Trojans to stay within 24 points of Appalachian State on the road, and I don't believe that will be a problem because App State isn't as good as any of those three aforementioned teams.

Appalachian State is overvalued right now due to its 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS start against some very soft competitions.  Its lone loss came at Clemson 10-41, but its six wins have come against Howard, Old Dominion, Wyoming, Georgia State, LA Monroe and Georgia Southern.  Those are some of the worst teams in the entire country, so I'm not willing to give the Mountaineers that much credit for them.

There's no doubt that the Mountaineers' 31-13 home win over Georgia Southern last week was impressive.  They covered the 6.5-point spread with ease, which was their third straight ATS victory, which has them overvalued.  It also has the Mountaineers in a huge letdown spot here off such a big win.  Everyone was calling that game against Georgia Southern the "defacto Sun Belt Championship", and that was probably the case.  But just as big of a game against Sun Belt contender Arkansas State looms on deck next week, so this is the ultimate sandwich game.  Look for the Mountaineers to come out flat in this one.

Despite such a tough schedule, Troy's defense is only giving up 26.9 points, 378.7 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  Its biggest improvement this season has come on defense, and the stop unit gives it a chance to be competitive in this game against Appalachian State.  But QB Brandon Silvers also gives the Trojans a fighting chance.  He's completing 62.4 percent of his passes for 1,046 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions.

The Trojans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record, 9-4 ATS after accumulating 450 or more total yards in their previous game, and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Mountaineers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 275 yards in their previous game.  Roll with Troy Saturday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida -1.5

The Florida Gators continue to be undervalued this week as only 3-point favorites over the reeling Georgia Bulldogs. I know that both teams still have a lot to play for and the winner will control their own destiny in the SEC East, but the fact of the matter is that the Gators are the better team in 2015. I look for them to get the job done in Jacksonville and for them to take a commanding lead in the division.

Florida has some seriously impressive wins this season. It beat Tennessee 28-27 at home, followed by a 38-10 home win over national title contender Ole Miss, and then a 21-3 road win at Missouri. Even in the game the Gators lost they gave LSU all they could handle on the road, and Baton Rouge is no easy place to play. This was a 28-28 game in the fourth quarter before LSU got a game-winning fake field goal for a TD to win 35-28.

Georgia’s last three games are great for comparing it to Florida. The Bulldogs lost 10-38 at home to Alabama, which is the same team that Ole Miss beat 43-37 on the road, and that’s the same Ole Miss team Florida beat 38-10 at home. The Bulldogs also lost 31-38 at Tennessee, while the Gators beat the Vols 28-27 at home. Georgia only beat Missouri 9-6 at home, while Florida beat Missouri 21-3 on the road. These common opponents show that the Gators have a huge edge here.

Yes, the loss of QB Will Grier certainly hurts the Gators, but I don’t think it’s as big of a loss as it’s perceived to be. Treon Harris has plenty of starting experience and came through with one of the best performances of his career at LSU. He threw for 271 yards and two touchdowns without an interception in the loss. Again, Baton Rouge is an extremely difficult place to play.

The bigger loss is Georgia’s Nick Chubb, who is one of the best backs in the country. The Bulldogs never recovered once Chubb went out with an injury in the loss to Tennessee. Then, their offense was really held in check in their first game without him against Missouri. They only won that game 9-6 and gained just 298 total yards against the Tigers, including 120 rushing on 45 carries. That’s an average of just 2.7 yards per carry and shows that they really miss Chubb.

Harris led the Gators to a 38-20 upset win over Georgia last season as they racked up 445 yards of total offense.  This was a down Florida team last year and one that is nowhere near as good as it is this season.  It was also a Georgia team last year that isn't nearly as good as the one that will be on the field in the 2015 meeting.  Chubb rushed for 156 yards and a touchdown on the Gators last year and will be missed.

Grayson Lambert has been playing so poorly that Georgia is desperate enough to start third-string QB Faton Bauta, who will be making his first career start.  Bauta has seen very limited action and is the Bulldogs' holder on extra points.  This isn't the kind of defense you want to be up against when you're making your first start.

The Gators are only giving up 17.3 points, 314.4 yards per game and 4.7 per play against opposing offenses that average 29.4 points, 412 yards per game and 5.9 per play. So, the Gators are holding their opponents to 12.1 points, 98 yards and 1.2 per play less than their season averages.

Florida is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 road games following a bye week. The Gators are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games following one or more consecutive games that went over the total. Florida is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference opponent. The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.  Bet Florida Saturday.

15* Ole Miss/Auburn ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss -7

These are two teams heading in opposite directions both in the standings and emotionally right now. Ole Miss is coming off a huge season-saving 23-3 win over Texas A&M in an absolutely dominant effort. The Rebels outgained the Aggies by 279 yards and held them to just 192. They still control their own destiny in the SEC West because if they win out, they will win the division.

At 1-3 within the conference, Auburn has nothing to play for but pride. The Tigers did show plenty of pride in their game against Arkansas last week, but the way they lost will take a lot out of them emotionally and physically. Losing a four-overtime thriller 46-54 to the Razorbacks had to be draining. I look for the Tigers to suffer a big-time hangover this week as they aren’t able to get back up off the mat in time to beat an Ole Miss team with much bigger aspirations.

The Rebels should be favored in every game from here on out as they play road games at Auburn and Mississippi State, which are the two worst teams in the SEC West. They play two of the better teams in Arkansas and LSU at home. I really like their chances of winning out and winning the SEC West. I still believe this is the best team in the entire SEC even with two losses on the season already.

Ole Miss has been putting up the types of numbers you would expect from a team capable of winning the SEC. It is averaging 41.0 points, 514.7 yards per game and 7.0 per play against teams that allow 33.6 points, 428 yards per game and 6.1 per play. Defensively, it is holding opponents to 19.7 points, 338.5 yards per game and 4.3 per play against teams that average 26.3 points, 392 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

Auburn has put up the kind of numbers you would expect from a rebuilding team, which is exactly what it is. The Tigers average just 363.1 yards per game offensively and give up 430.6 yards per game defensively, getting outgained by an average of 67.5 yards per game. In fact, the Tigers have been outgained in six of their seven games this season. That includes games against Jacksonville State, Kentucky and San Jose State.

Ole Miss is going to want revenge from a 35-31 home loss to Auburn last year. The Rebels were going in for the game-winning score before Laquan Treadwell fumbled at the 1-yard line and suffered a season-ending injury in the process. Treadwell has come back stronger than ever this year, leading the SEC with 54 catches for 756 yards and five touchdowns. Of course, it helps to have a guy like Chad Kelly throwing him the ball. Kelly is completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 2,475 yards with 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt.

Treadwell spent several months rehabbing, and he said the emotional aspect of this rematch hit him immediately once Ole Miss finished its win against Texas A&M and he realized Auburn was next.  "They're going to feel my pain," he said. "I'm just going to play my hardest, play with heart like I did last week and my team will do the same and we hope to get the W."

Senior linebacker C.J. Johnson returned against Texas A&M after missing two weeks because of a knee injury.  His presence was felt immediately when he recovered a fumble early in that game.  The best defensive player in the entire SEC is DT Robert Nkemdiche, who has missed most of the past two games due to a concussion.  But coach Hugh Freeze said that Nkemdiche is expected to return this week.

Ole Miss is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games after committing four or more turnovers in its previous game. Auburn is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  Auburn is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games, 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning record, 0-7 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last two seasons, and 1-9 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game over the last two years.  These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing the Rebels.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion +25

The Old Dominion Monarchs are the only team in the country that has yet to cover a spread this season.  They are 0-7 against the spread in 2015.  If you've followed me, you know I like backing teams who are on extended ATS losing streaks because there is artificial inflation in their lines.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them, and the oddsmakers know this so they are forced to tack extra points onto the favorite to try and get equal action on both sides of the game.

But Old Dominion is a better team than its 0-7 ATS mark shows.  It has gone 3-4 straight up and is more than capable of staying within 25 points of Western Kentucky this week at home.  Its four losses have come to some good teams in NC State, Appalachian State, Marshall, and Florida International.  It lost by 24 to NC State at home and by 20 at Marshall.  But that game at Marhsall was closer than the final score showed as the Monarchs were only outgained by 39 yards.

Also adding to this line inflation was a 12-41 loss at Florida International last week.  Sure, that score looks awful, but a closer look at the box score shows that it was much closer.  Old Dominion actually outgained FIU 498-448 for the game, or by 50 total yards.  That's right, the Monarchs nearly gained 500 yards of offense yet were held to only 12 points, which is a complete fluke.  Had they not been "blown out" last week, they wouldn't be catching 25 points this week.

Western Kentucky is a quality team and one of the best in Conference USA.  But asking the Hilltoppers to go on the road and win by more than 25 points to cover this spread is asking too much.  That's especially the case considering the awful spot the Hilltoppers are in this week.

They treated the game against LSU last week as their Super Bowl.  They hung tough for a half but were eventually blown out by a final of 20-48.  After that trip to Baton Rouge, which is one of the toughest and coolest places in the country, the Hilltoppers can't help but suffer an emotional hangover here.  They won't be up for Old Dominion at all and will feel like they just have to show up to win.

The Hilltoppers are also beat up defensively after that physical game against LSU.  Now they'll be facing an Old Dominion rushing attack that produced 297 yards against FIU last week.  ODU has rushed for at least 184 yards in four of its seven games this season and averages 4.8 yards per carry.  WKU gives up 178 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry this season.  The Hilltoppers have allowed at least 176 rushing yards in five of their eight games.  They also haven't had a bye week yet, so they have to be running out of gas.

Old Dominion wants revenge from a 51-66 road loss to Western Kentucky last year.  This was a shootout in every sense of the word as both teams racked up more than 600 yards of offense.  The Monarchs actually outgained the Hilltoppers 643-601 for the game.  But the difference was that WKU scored two non-offensive touchdown with one kick return and one interception return for a TD.  I'm banking on the Hilltoppers not getting those breaks again.

WKU is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game over the past three seasons.  The Hilltoppers are 2-10 ATS in road games after playing a game where 60 or more total points were scored over the last three years.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State -4.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions should be much bigger favorites at home against the Illinois Fighting Illini this week.  There is a lot of value with the Nittany Lions in laying less than a touchdown at home here.

While it hasn't been pretty at times, the fact of the matter is that Penn State is 6-2 this season and one of the best teams in the big Ten.  The struggles have been on the road with losses to Temple and Ohio State, two teams who are a combined 14-0 right now.  They also barely beat a Maryland team last week that had two weeks to prepare for Penn State and a new head coach, which had their team inspired.

But that 31-30 win by the Nittany Lions has them undervalued here because it was a bad spot for them.  Keep in mind that they were coming off a crushing loss to Ohio State the previous week.  It's always hard to come back from a loss to the defending national champion.  But because that game against Maryland was close, it has kept this line lower than it should be.  Look for a renewed focus for the Nittany Lions this week.

It has been a completely different story for Penn State at home.  It is 5-0 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 16.4 points per game.  Its defense has been especially dominant at home, giving up just 11.8 points and 269.6 yards per game this season.

Illinois has also played much better at home than on the road.  It is 4-1 at home with its lone loss coming to Wisconsin last week by a final of 24-13.  It had to be disappointing that the Fighting Illini didn't win that game because they had two full weeks to prepare for the Badgers, yet still lost by double-digits.  That makes this a bad spot for them.

But Illinois is 0-2 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 21.5 points per game.  Its defense has been shredded for 38.5 points and 474.5 yards per game on the road.  It lost 14-48 at North Carolina on the road back in Week 3.  It also lost 20-29 at Iowa two games ago.  That games against Iowa was relatively close, keep in mind that Iowa was coming off a big win against Wisconsin the previous week, so it was a letdown spot for the Hawkeyes.

Penn State's three poor performances this season have come against dual-threat quarterbacks as well in Temple, Ohio State and Maryland.  Fortunately, Illinois has a pocket passer in Wes Lunt.  That's going to be key because the Nittany Lions lead the country with 31 sacks.  Carl Nassib leads the NCAA with 12.5 sacks on his own and came up with a huge sack late against Maryland to preserve the win.  That makes this an excellent machup for the Nittany Lions as they should be in Lunt's grill all day, and he's not going to be able to use his legs to beat them.

Illinois is missing a couple of key weapons on offense, too.  The Fighting Illini are expected to be without starting tight end Tyler White due to a knee injury.  Starting running back Josh Ferguson is also expected to miss his third straight game with a shoulder injury.  They were already without their top receiver from last year in Mike Dudek.  The injuries just keep piling up for this offense.

Penn State wants revenge from a 14-16 loss at Illinois last year as well.  It should have no problem getting it considering the Nittany Lions are 4-0 the next season following a loss to Illinois with an average margin of victory of 12.0 points per game.  They are also 8-1 in their last nine home meetings with Illinois.

James Franklin is a perfect 7-0 ATS off a no-cover where his team won as a favorite in all games he has coached.  His teams are coming back to win by an average of 23.6 points per game in this spot.  I'll back this 100% never lost system here with Franklin and the Nittany Lions.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* CFB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Wyoming +27

Because they are just 1-7 on the season with one win, the Wyoming Cowboys have been grossly undervalued here in recent weeks.  As a result, they have been able to go 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Oddsmakers are continuing to undervalue them as 27-point underdogs here to the Utah State Aggies.

In fact, Wyoming hasn't lost a game by more than 20 points all season.  That 20-point loss came last week as a 33.5-point road underdog to Boise State.  The Cowboys lost that game 14-34.  If they can stay within 20 of Boise State, there's no question they can hang with Utah State for four quarters and stay within 27.

The key here is that Utah State isn't an explosive offensive team and will struggle to cover this big spread because of it.  The Aggies were held to just 239 total yards in a 14-48 loss at San Diego State last week.  They are only averaging 338.1 yards per game this season, including 172 passing.  Their offense is sub-par to say the least.

Wyoming running back Brian Hill became the fastest running back in Wyoming history to reach 1,000 rushing yards this season.  The Cowboys ride him hard, and he should be able to find plenty of success on the ground against a Utah State defense that yielded a whopping 336 rushing yards to San Diego State last week.

Last year, Utah State beat Wyoming 20-3 on the road as 7.5-point favorites.  While this was a 17-point game, it was much closer than that as Wyoming actually outgained Utah State 363-356 for the game.  To only come away with three points with 363 yards of offense is really hard to do.  Look for the Cowboys to capitalize on more of their opportunities this time around as this one is closer than expected.

Utah State is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more.  The Aggies are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games off a loss by 28 points or more.  The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with Wyoming Friday.

15* WVU/TCU Big 12 No-Brainer on West Virginia +14.5

The Mountaineers are one of the best teams in the country to have a record of .500 or worse right now. That record can be attributed to a very tough schedule in Big 12 play to start. The Mountaineers have had to play road games at Oklahoma and Baylor, and they lost a home game to Oklahoma State in overtime. Baylor and Oklahoma State are still undefeated, while Oklahoma has just one loss.

TCU has been vulnerable this season and should not be favored by two touchdowns against this solid WVU outfit. The Horned Frogs already have three very close wins over Minnesota (23-17), Texas Tech (55-52) and Kansas State (52-45). West Virginia is better than all three of those teams and can hang with the Horned Frogs in this one because of it.

TCU has played Stephen F. Austin, Texas and SMU at home this season. It even was in a dogfight with SMU for four quarters before scoring the final two touchdowns of the game to pull out a 56-37 victory as 37-point favorites. West Virginia will be by far the best team that TCU has faced not only at home, but for the entire season as well.

The numbers show that West Virginia really is a great team. It is putting up 36.3 points and 485 yards per game against opposing defenses that only allow 26.9 points and 384 yards per game. It is also giving up 27.0 points and 401 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 39.2 points and 484 yards per game.

While TCU was expected to have a great offense this season and that has proven to be the case, its defense certainly is nowhere near to the level it was last season. The Horned Frogs are giving up 26.6 points and 397 yards per game against opposing offenses that only average 25.8 points and 374 yards per game.

The road team has gone 3-0 SU the last three years in meetings between these teams as Big 12 opponents with all three decided by a field goal or less. West Virginia went to TCU and won 30-27 as 11-point underdogs in 2013. The Mountaineers are going to want revenge from their 30-31 home loss to the Horned Frogs as 3.5-point dogs last year. They held them to just 389 total yards in that loss.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that has covered the spread in two of their last three games are 224-143 (61%) ATS since 1992. The Horned Frogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Roll with West Virginia Thursday.

20* UNC/Pitt ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh +2

It’s a little bit surprising to me that North Carolina is actually favored on the road in this one. The Tar Heels are certainly improved from last year and brought a lot of talent back. Their defensive improvement has made the biggest difference this year behind coordinator Gene Chizik. But the Tar Heels should not be favored in this one.

Pittsburgh has played a more difficult schedule this year. It has played five of its first seven games on the road, which makes its 6-1 record that much more impressive. Its only loss came at Iowa by a final of 24-27 on a last-second field goal. Iowa is still unbeaten at 7-0 on the season. The Panthers have also gone on the road and beaten Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Syracuse and Akron.

North Carolina has taken advantage of an easy early schedule. It has only played one true road game this season, which was a 38-31 win at Georgia Tech. It has played five of its first seven games at home, and those five were against NC A&T, Illinois, Delaware, Wake Forest and Virginia. Its lone loss came against South Carolina by a final of 17-13 on a neutral field. We’ve all seen how poor the Gamecocks are this year since that game.

Pittsburgh is going to want some revenge here after losing to the Tar Heels by a touchdown or less each of the past two seasons. The Panthers racked up 523 total yards on the Tar Heels and outgained them despite losing 35-40 on the road last year. Pat Narduzzi’s team is improved this year and a legitimate threat to win the ACC.

This Pittsburgh defense has been dynamite under Narduzzi. It is only giving up 21.6 points, 309 yards per game and 5.2 per play against opposing offenses that average 30.6 points, 382 yards per game and 5.6 per play. So this defense is holding opposing offenses to 9.0 points and 73 yards per game less than their season averages.

UNC’s defense is improved, but you have to consider the ease of the schedule in which it has played. The Tar Heels are only giving up 350 yards per game defensively, but when you see that opposing offenses only average 346 yards per game on the season, it’s not that impressive. This is pretty much just an average Tar Heels defense that has taken advantage of their schedule.

The Tar Heels are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following four or more consecutive wins. North Carolina is 22-38 ATS in its last 60 games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Panthers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take Pittsburgh Thursday.

15* Utah/USC FOX Saturday No-Brainer on USC -3

I’m not ready to give up on the USC Trojans yet, and I don’t believe they have given up on themselves either. If they win out, they’ll still have a great shot to win the Pac-12 South, so their season is far from lost. But it starts with a win over Utah this week that would help turn their season around. It’s clear to me that their effort against Notre Dame showed that they are buying into interim coach Clay Helton, who also led them to a bowl victory over Fresno State two years ago, so the players trust him.

Indeed, USC arguably outplayed Notre Dame last week in its 31-41 road loss. The Trojans racked up 590 yards of total offense against a very good Fighting Irish defense, and they outgained them by 114 yards in the game. In fact, they have only been outgained once this season, and that was by 47 yards in a 31-41 home loss to Stanford. With the numbers this team is putting up, it’s clear to me that this is still one of the most talented teams in the country.

There’s no question in my mind that Utah is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Sure, the 6-0 start is solid, but the Utes have actually been outgained in three of their six games this season. They were outgained by Michigan, Utah State and California. They are only outgaining opponents by an average of 28.8 yards per game, which is not the sign of a national title contender. Their luck in the turnover department and special teams will come to an end here soon, and probably this week. They aren’t going to force 3.2 turnovers per game the rest of the way.

Meanwhile, USC has put up the kind of numbers that you would expect from a national title contender. It is outgaining opponents by an average of 108.2 yards per game this season. Its offense has been dynamite, and Helton is the offensive coordinator, so that’s not going to change any time soon. The Trojans are putting up 38.3 points, 510.7 yards per game and 7.5 per play. Utah, which is only averaging 396.3 yards per game and 5.6 per play, does not have the firepower to keep up with the Trojans.

Cody Kessler may be the best quarterback in the country, but he doesn’t get the kind of accolades he deserves. He is completing 68.5 percent of his passes for 1,818 yards with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. While USC clearly has the better offense, Utah only has a slight edge on defense. The Utes are giving up 19.5 points and 369.5 yards per game, while the Trojans are allowing 21.3 points and 402.5 yards per game.

USC is 9-1 ATS off one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 18.3 points per game in this spot. This team has been extremely resilient over the past couple seasons, and with a half a season left and the goal of winning the Pac-12 still within their grasp, I look for them to come back with a great effort this week.

"These kids want to go out and show the world how good they are and we plan on doing that in these last six games," Helton said.  You can bet that it's going to be a rowdy home crowd for this one with the No. 3 team in the country coming to town.  This is where the Trojans rally the troops and turn their season around.  Also, it's telling that USC is the favorite here despite being unranked and playing the No. 3 team.  Vegas agrees that the Trojans should be favored, and Utah is going to be a very public underdog this weekend.  Take USC Saturday.