20* UTSA/USF ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 67

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all six games.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the entire country in tempo snapping the ball every 21 seconds.

The Bulls are relentless on offense.  They are averaging 49 points per game, 574.8 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play in conference games.  They have incentive to run up the score as they are trying to not only win the AAC, but do it with style points.  We saw just that when they beat Charlotte 54-26 and North Texas 63-36 in recent weeks.

UTSA has gone 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall finishing with 74 combined points with Rice, 72 with North Texas and 74 with Tulane.  So this total of 67 isn't really that high when you look at recent results for both teams.  UTSA has an elite offense and terrible defense.

The Roadrunners racked up 48 points on a very good Tulane defense last week finishing with 523 total yards in the proces.  QB Owen McCown was near perfect, completing 31-of-33 passes for 370 yards and 4 TD in the win.  He should light up this soft USF defense as well.  But the Roadrunners allow 30.2 points per game, 401.6 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season to rank 113th, 124th and 103rd in the country in those respective categories defensively.

These teams last met in 2023 and finished with 70 combined points.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain expected.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Georgia Southern/App State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 61

Georgia Southern is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Eagles are 6-2 OVER in their eight games this season finishing with 62 or more combined points in five of their last seven games overall.  The Eagles rank 33rd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds.

Appalachian State plays even faster.  The Mountaineers rank 10th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.2 seconds.  They have gone 4-2 OVER in their last six games finishing with 60 or more combined points four times.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game, and this total of 61 is too short for a game involving these two teams right now.

Georgia Southern has one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Eagles rank 127th allowing 35.4 points per game, 133rd allowing 469 yards per game and 127th allowing 6.5 yards per play.  The Mountaineers should be able to name their number here, and I fully expect the Eagles to be able to keep up in a shootout.

Georgia Southern QB JC French is very comfortable in Clay Helton's offense.  He is completing 61.5% of his passes for 1,677 yards and 14 touchdowns while also rushing for 202 yards and five scores.  He should light up a App State defense that allowed 45 points to Coastal Carolina recently.  There will be no wind and no rain in the forecast for this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami (Ohio)/Ohio OVER 49

Ohio is a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense, the best QB in the MAC and a very leaky defense. This should be a high-scoring game against a Miami Ohio team that looks to have its best offense in years, but also one that has taken a big step back defensively this season.

Ohio has gone 3-2 OVER in its last five games finishing with 49 or more combined points in four of those five games. That includes a 48-21 win over NIU for 69 combined points, and that's a NIU team with one of the worst offenses in the country but a solid defense. They also went for 49 with EMU, 55 with Bowling Green and 77 with Gardner Webb.

This total of 49 is very low for a game involving Ohio. The Bobcats rank 34th in total offense at 434.8 yards per game and 32nd at 6.3 yards per play. They rank 120th allowing 6.3 yards per play. Parker Navarro is the best QB in the MAC, completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,786 yads with 11 TD while also rushing for 504 yards and 4 TD as a tremendous dual-threat.

Transfer Dequan Finn has been a huge get at the QB position for Miami Ohio. He has thrown for 1,257 yards and 7 TD, while also rushing for 384 yards and 4 TD this season.

Miami Ohio is 5-2 OVER in seven games this season, and that's largely due to their totals being so low based on previous seasons. But the Redhawks went for 74 combined points with Eastern Michigan, 79 with UNLV and 62 with Rutgers. They can keep up in a shootout when they need to, and I think they will need to tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

25* MWC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Hawaii/San Jose State OVER 57

San Jose State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Spartans are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 59 or more combined points in four of the five.  The only game that went under finished with 55 combined points with Utah State, but that game had 995 total yards combined and easily should have went over the total.

San Jose State ranks 42nd in tempo and 1st in pass play percentage, throwing the ball 64.8% of the time.  That means more clock stoppages and more opportunities for points.  The Spartans average 315 passing yards per game.  They have a terrible defense that allows 6.3 yards per play and 298 passing yards per game and 9.0 per attempt.

Hawaii ranks 44th in tempo and 3rd in pass play percentage, throwing the ball 62.5% of the time.  So these are two of the top three teams in the country in pass play percentage, so there will be max clock stoppages.  After getting banged up early in the season, Hawaii star QB Micah Alejado is really hitting on all cylinders of late.

Hawaii beat Air Force 44-35 for 79 combined points and Alejado threw for 457 yards.  The Rainbow Warriors beat Utah State 44-26 for 70 combined points as Alejado threw for 413 yards.  And they beat Colorado State 31-19 behind 301 passing yards from Alejado.  He has a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio over this three-game stretch, and now he's up against one of the worst secondary's he will face all season.  This game has shootout written all over it.  

The forecast also looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no rain Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma/Tennessee OVER 55.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.8 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 6-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 57 or more combined points in all eight games including 65 or more in seven of them.  It should have been 64 or more in all eight games but they ran out of time at the goal line against Alabama two weeks ago in a game that landed on 57.  This total of 55.5 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse, 65 with Arkansas, 57 with Alabama and 90 with Kentucky in their six games against Power 4 opponents.

The Vols rank 2nd in scoring offense at 45.6 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 510.1 yards per game and average 7.0 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,344 yards with a 18-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State, 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas, 37 points to Alabama and 34 points and 476 total yards to Kentucky in their last six games.  They are allowing 36.0 points per game and 445 yards per game in SEC play.

Oklahoma's defense got a lot of hype in the first half of the season, but its numbers were largely due to playing one of the weakest schedules of opposing offenses possible.  The Sooners finally played an offense with a pulse last week and lost 34-26 at home to Ole Miss for 60 combined points.  They allowed 431 yards to the Rebels.  Tennessee has a better offense than Ole Miss.

John Mateer is now a month removed from the thumb injury that forced him out of action.  He says he's 100% healthy now, and he is in line for a big performance against this Tennessee defense.  He led the Sooners to 26 points against South Carolina and 26 against Ole Miss the last two games, and I expect him to have one of his best games of the season here as he'll need to to try and keep up with the Vols in a shootout.

The forecast looks great for a shootout in Knoxville Saturday night with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Kentucky +11

With one of the worst offenses in the SEC, the Auburn Tigers just have a knack for playing in close games.  They play up and down to their level of competition.  They have no business being favored by double-digits here against a Kentucky team that is on par with them.

The Tigers rank 99th in scoring offense at 24.8 points per game, 108th in total offense at 340.6 yards per game and 111th at 5.1 yards per play.  Each of Auburn's five SEC games to this point were all decided by 10 points or fewer.  They are 1-4 SU in SEC play with their only win coming last week 33-24 at Arkansas only after the Razorbacks handed them the victory with four turnovers including three late and a 49-yard INT return TD to give them the lead with under 10 minutes remaining in the 4th.

Kentucky is coming off two straight misleading losses that have the Wildcats undervalued.  They lost 16-13 to Texas despite outgaining the Longhorns 395 to 179, or by 216 total yards.  They lost 56-34 to Tennessee last week despite only getting outgained by 28 yards.

What really stands out is how much better this Kentucky offense is playing since its bye three weeks ago.  The Wildcats put up 395 total yards on that vaunted Texas defense and then 476 total yards on Tennessee.  Freshman QB Cutter Boley has been impressive, completing 66.5% of his passes with 9 TD's on the season and is getting more comfortable each week.

No doubt Kentucky has the advantage at QB in this one.  And Auburn only averaging 170 passing yards per game, so stopping the run is the key to stopping Auburn.  The Tigers average 171 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry on the season.  Well, the strength of the Kentucky defense is stopping the run as they only allow 132.6 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  The weakness of both defenses is their pass D, but only one of these QB's (Boley) is a good passer, and I'll gladly take Kentucky catching double-digits here.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +10

Wake Forest is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Demon Deacons are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS this season and even the two losses were impressive.  One came 30-29 to Georgia Tech after their first bye week as 13.5-point dogs.  That's a Georgia Tech team that remains unbeaten this season.  The other was a 10-point loss to NC State, but they led that game 24-17 going into the 2H and were on a short week and ran out of steam in the 2H.

The last two games going into the bye week were very impressive.  They won 30-23 as 5-point dogs at Virginia Tech, outgaining the Hokies 347 to to 263, or by 84 total yards.  They won 39-14 on the road at Oregon State as 2.5-point favorites, outgaining the Beavers 468 to 309, or by 159 total yards.  They then had another bye week before coming back to upset SMU 13-12 as 4.5-point home dogs last week despite committing five turnovers.  They outgained the Mustangs by 55 yards and put an end to their 20-game ACC winning streak.

So Wake Forest has had two bye weeks already and just had one two weeks ago.  I think it negates the fact that Florida State is coming off its bye week as I don't think the Seminoles will really be that much fresher than the Demon Deacons.  I also question how much Florida State cares to finish out this disastrous season.

The Seminoles are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in ACC play this season with nothing to play for but pride.  They were upset at Virginia as 7-point favorites, were upset at home by Pitt as 10.5-point favorites and were upset at Stanford as 18-point favorites.  QB Thomas Castellanos is coming off a concussion suffered late in that loss to Stanford, and he may not be his usual aggressive self, and his dual-threat ability will be limited.

Wake Forest has a huge advantage on defense in this one.  The Demon Deacons are only allowing 24.8 points per game, 331.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play in conference play this season.  Florida State is allowing 32 points per game, 386.8 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play in conference play.  I'll gladly back the better defense with more to play for catching double-digits in this one.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -5.5

Georgia Tech is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS this season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Yellow Jackets have elite numbers averaging 7.3 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.

NC State will be no match Saturday.  The Wolfpack are 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS this season with one of the worst defenses in the country.  They allowed 36 points and 485 total yards to Notre Dame and 53 points and 509 total yards to Pitt in their last two games coming in.  They won't have much success against Haynes King and this high-powered Georgia Tech offense this week, either.

NC State's offense is potent, but it is much less potent now after losing its biggest playmakers in WR Justin Jolly to injury in last week's blowout loss to Pitt.  Jolly has a team-high 36 receptions for 365 yards and five TD this season.  He was CJ Bailey's go-to guy out of the slot in key 3rd down situations.  Leading rusher Hollywood Smothers (825 yards, 6 TD, 28 receptions, 170 yards) is also questionable for this one.

With a bye on deck next week, Georgia Tech will be fully focused for this one.  I think the Yellow Jackets easily win this game by a TD or more.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* USC/Nebraska NBC No-Brainer on OVER 59

USC is a wagon offensively this season under Lincoln Riley as this is his best offense in his time in Los Angeles.  The Trojans rank 1st in total offense at 530 yards per game and 2nd in scoring at 42.4 points per game.  They are also 1st averaging 7.8 yards per play.  They have my vote for best offense in the country.

Nebraska has an improved offense this season with a more pass-happy approach to take advantage of the talents of QB Dylan Raiola.  The Huskers are 38th in scoring at 31.6 points per game.  They will be able to keep up with USC in a shootout Saturday because they are going to be forced to as the Trojans can pretty much name their number.  Both teams are much stronger on offense than defense.

Nebraska is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 57 or more combined points in five of those eight games and 65 or more four times.  The only two exceptions were against two dead nuts under teams in Minnesota and Northwestern, who also have two of the worst offenses in the Big Ten.  This USC offense is going to be by far the best that Nebraska has faced this season.

USC is 6-3 OVER in its last nine games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those nine games, including 66 or more in five of them.  The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night with no wind and no rain.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on South Carolina/Ole Miss OVER 54.5

Ole Miss really profiles as an OVER team.  The Rebels rank 10th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They also rank 19th in scoring at 37.0 points per game, 11th in total offense at 484.2 yards per game and 24th at 6.5 yards per play.  They'll be up against a South Carolina defense that has taken a big step down from last season with all the talent they lost to the NFL.

We've seen what Ole Miss is capable of against two great defenses the last two weeks.  The Rebels won 34-26 at Oklahoma for 60 combined points and lost 43-35 to Georgia for 78 combined points.  I have no doubt the Rebels will get their points again this week, and South Carolina will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.

The Gamecocks have one of the best QB's in the SEC in La'Norris Sellers who will be game.  Sellers played well in a 29-22 loss to Alabama last week.  He threw for 222 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 67 yards and a score.  I think he is in line for one of his biggest games of the season against an Ole Miss defense that also has taken a big step down from last season with all of the talent lost to the NFL.

The Gamecocks also like to play fast ranking 41st in tempo snapping the ball every 25.3 seconds.  There are going to be a ton of possessions in this game with more opportunities for points.  The forecast looks great for a shootout Saturday night in Oxford too with temps in the 50's, no wind and only a 20% chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +21

The Michigan Wolverines aren't the team you want to be laying three touchdowns with.  They have a run-heavy offense and they play at a snail's pace.  Those facts alone make it difficult for them to cover these big numbers.

Michigan ranks 19th in run play percentage at 58.7% and 105th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.9 seconds.  The Wolverines have been held to 24 points or fewer in four consecutive games basically when you take away the breakaway 56-yard TD run against Michigan State when they were just trying to run out the clock last week.  The managed 24 against Washington, 13 against USC and 24 against Wisconsin.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Purdue after six straight losses and five straight non-covers.  This is a team that is going to keep fighting under a first-year head coach in Barry Odom.  They outgained Minnesota and deserve to win, they were pretty even in the stats in their loss to Illinois, and they had control of the game against Rutgers basically the entire way until the final seconds in a 3-point loss.  Their only loss by more than 19 points this season came on the road at Notre Dame.

I like the matchup for Purdue because their defensive weakness is against the pass, but they have held up well against the run.  They allow just 4.0 yards per carry on the season, holding opponents to 0.6 yards per carry below their season averages.  Michigan threw for just 86 yards against Michigan State last week as the passing game continues to struggle.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Texas Tech/Kansas State OVER 51.5

This numbers looks too short for how good both of these offenses are playing right now.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout in Manhattan Saturday with temps in the 50's, no wind and no rain.

Texas Tech has scored at least 34 points in seven of its eight games this season and ranks 5th in the country in scoring at 40.3 points per game.  The Red Raiders get back starting QB Behren Morton for this one, and while there's not a huge difference between him and backup Will Hammond, the offense has more big play potential with his stronger arm.

Kansas State has scored at least 34 points in four consecutive games and is averaging 37.8 points per game during this stretch.  Avery Johnson is playing the best football of his career with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and 255 rushing yards and 5 scores.  He will be able to match Texas Tech score for score.

Texas Tech and Kansas State have combined for at least 52 points in four of their last five meetings and 16 of their last 18 meetings overall.  This total of 51.5 is very short for a game involving these two Big 12 rivals.  Texas Tech ranks 17th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds despite blowing out most of its opponents this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State +7.5

The Kansas State Wildcats remain undervalued after a 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS start this season with losses by 3, 3 and 6 points.  The Wildcats have since gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with their only loss coming by a single point at Baylor on a 52-yard FG as 6-point dogs.  They crushed UCF by 14 as 6-point home favorites, upset TCU by 13 as 3-point home dogs and upset Kansas 42-17 as 3-point road dogs.

The Wildcats had a bye prior to that win over Kansas, so they should still be very fresh for this game against Texas Tech and will be relishing this opportunity to try and knock off a Top 15 opponent.  Avery Johnson is really playing well right now at QB with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and 255 rushing yards and 5 scores.  He will be able to match Texas Tech score for score.

We saw how vulnerable the Red Raiders were in their last road game falling 26-22 at Arizona State as 7-point favorites.  Kansas State is better than Arizona State.  The Red Raiders were outgained 276 to 394 by the Sun Devils, or by 118 yards.  The weakness is this Texas Tech secondary, which allowed 30-of-39 passing for 245 yards to Kansas and 319 passing yards to Sam Leavitt and ASU.  Johnson should have a big game through the air here in likely leading K-State to an upset victory, but we'll take the inflated +7.5 for some extra cushion.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +10.5

Virginia Tech still has one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  The Hokies are showing great value catching double-digits at home to Louisville Saturday.  The Hokies returned from their bye with a 42-34 win over California racking up 476 total yards including 357 rushing, outgaining the Golden Bears by 151 yards.

Now they should still be fresh and know they have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' to try and beat a Top 25 team here in Louisville.  I think the Cardinals are overvalued since upsetting Miami 24-21 on the road as 10-point dogs two weeks ago as the Hurricanes basically handed them the victory with 4 turnovers.

Louisville came back last week predictably flat in a 38-24 home win over Boston College as 26-point favorites.  That's a Boston College team that is on a 6-game losing streak including home losses to UConn by 15 and Clemson by 31, and a road loss to Pitt by 41 in its previous three games coming in.  It was a bad, bad look for Louisville.

This will be Louisville's first trip to Blacksburg since joining the ACC 11 years ago.  The Cardinals are 0-3 all-time in Blacksburg, one of the toughest places to play in the country.  Their home field is worth more than is being factored into the line here.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Iowa State -5.5

I jumped on Iowa State as soon as I heard that Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt was out.  I got further good news when WR Jordan Tyson was listed as doubtful.  I would still play Iowa State up to -10 given the news.

Leavitt and Tyson are worth more to the point spread than is being factored into this line even at the current number.  I have the downgrade from Leavitt to backup Sims at least 7 points.  Sims hasn't won anywhere he has gone, and he is only averaging 3.7 yards per attempt on his 49 passes and 3.0 yards per carry on his 29 rushes this season.  Tyson may be the best receiver in the country, catching 57 balls for 628 yards and 8 TD this season while single-handedly carrying the Sun Devils to their victory over Texas Tech two games ago.

Tyson was out and Leavitt got hurt in the 2H of their 24-16 home loss to Houston as 7.5-point favorites last week.  They actually trailed that game 24-0 in a misleading final.  Houston's mediocre offense had great success against this ASU defense finishing with 384 total yards despite sitting on the ball in the 2H, or it could have been worse.

Iowa State is a prideful team, and coming off three consecutive Big 12 losses the Cyclones have piss and vinegar running through their blood.  They also want revenge on Arizona State after losing to them in the Big 12 Championship Game last year to cost them a shot at the 12-team playoff.  I expect a big effort from the Cyclones Saturday.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cyclones after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with three misleading losses.  They were missing a ton of starters in their 38-30 loss at Cincinnati in which they were only outgained by 9 yards.  They outgained Colorado by 46 yards in a 24-17 road loss in which they were done in by official.  And last week they outgained BYU 495 to 410, or by 85 total yards, but were -3 in turnovers including two interceptions that were both basically 14-point swings.  One pick 6 and one INT deep in BYU territory.

Iowa State got a much-needed bye two weeks ago and returned with a big performance against BYU in a game they had like a 70% post-game win expectancy, the biggest of any team that loss last week.  They are much healthier now and should still be pretty fresh for this one.  Not only are the Sun Devils without their two best players, but they are also a tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week after three very physical games against Utah, Texas Tech and Houston.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Cyclones this week.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* Vanderbilt/Texas ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45.5

Vanderbilt really profiles as an UNDER team.  The Commodores rank 131st out of 136 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.1 seconds.  Possessions are limited in their games, so points are much harder to come by.

Texas also profiles as an UNDER team with a terrible offense and a great defense.  Texas is 5-3 UNDER in all games this season finishing with 45 or fewer combined points in five of its eight games, including 37 or fewer combined points four times.

Texas ranks 10th in scoring defense at 14.6 points per game, 20th in total defense at 300.6 yards per game and 12th at 4.4 yards per play.  But the Longhorns have an underwhelming offense with Arch Manning, who is questionable for this one coming off a concussion.  I'm good with the UNDER whether or not he plays.  The Longhorns rank 78th in total offense at 375.6 yards per game and 75th at 5.6 yards per play.  This is the worst offense of the Steve Sarkisian era at Texas.

Vanderbilt is 3-1 UNDER in its four SEC games this season finishing with 38 combined points with South Carolina, 44 with Alabama and 27 with Missouri.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rutgers/Illinois OVER 62

Rutgers has turned into a dead nuts OVER team.  The Scarlet Knights are 13-3 OVER in their last 16 games overall.  They are combining with their opponents to average a whopping 62.8 points per game in those 16 games.  This total of 62 is too low for a game involving Rutgers right now.

The Scarlet Knights have now scored at least 27 points in 10 of their last 12 games dating back to last season.  That includes games against quality defenses in Kansas State, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota.  They went for 65 combined points with Ohio in a 34-31 win, 62 with Miami Ohio in a 45-17 win, 70 with Norfolk State in a 60-10 win, 66 with Iowa in a 38-28 loss, 59 with Minnesota in a 31-28 loss, and 66 with Oregon.

After going over the total in five consecutive games to start the season, the Scarlet Knights deserved to go over three weeks ago against Washington but fell just short with 57 combined points in a 38-19 loss and a total of 61.5.  It took a miracle to keep that game under, including a combined 6 red zone trips that went for zero points!  Rutgers had 493 total yards and Washington had 590 total yards, so these teams combined for a whopping 1,083 total yards in that game.

Oregon basically covered the OVER on its own two weeks ago putting up 56 points and 750 total yards against this awful Rutgers defense.  The Scarlet Knights are allowing 30.6 points per game, 425.9 yards per game and a ridiculous 7.7 yards per play, which is the 2nd-worst mark in the country.  But they have a very good offense scoring 31.4 points per game, averaging 426 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play this season.

Illinois is 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall finishing with 67 combined points with Washington, 70 with Purdue, 66 with USC and 73 with Indiana.  The only game that stayed under was against Ohio State in a 34-16 loss for 50 combined points with a 51-point total, but Ohio State has the best defense in the country and is a dead nuts under team.

Like Rutgers, Illinois' offense is way ahead of its defense this season.  The Fighting Illini are scoring 32.9 points per game.  Senior QB Luke Altmyer has been awesome, completing 71.2% of his passes for 2,020 yards with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt despite facing a tough schedule.  He is going to shred this suspect Rutgers defense.

It has been a bad look for this Illinois defense in conference play.  Indeed, the Fighting Illini are allowing 39.6 points per game, 451 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play in Big Ten action.  Rutgers is going to be able to keep scoring as it tries to keep up with Illinois in a shootout.  The forecast looks great Saturday with temps approaching 50, single-digit winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UCF +3.5

I question how much Baylor really wants to finish out the season at this point.  The Bears are coming off consecutive road losses to TCU 42-36 and to Cincinnati 41-20.  The Bears only managed 266 total yards against a mediocre Cincinnati defense last week as their offense finally couldn't make up for one of the worst defenses in the country.

Baylor ranks 120th in scoring defense at 32.6 points per game and 101st in total defense at 403.1 yards per game.  The Bears are wasting a great QB in Sawyer Robertson, who is forced to try and keep up in shootouts week after week.  Even when they win it's not by margin as they are 4-4 SU & 1-7 ATS this season with a 3-point win in OT against SMU and a 1-point win over Kansas State.  The only two teams they beat by more than 3 points this season were FCS Samford and the worst team in the Big 12 in Oklahoma State.

UCF is improving under first-year head coach Scott Frost.  The Knights are coming off their best performance of the season in a 45-13 win over West Virginia as 6.5-point home favorites.  They had a bye last week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Baylor, which is a huge advantage for teams with a first-year head coach.

UCF had a misleading 20-11 loss at Cincinnati the week prior.  UCF actually outgained Cincinnati 413 to 306, or by 107 total yards.  Holding that Cincinnati offense to just 306 total yards is no joke.  They went on to outgain WVU 578 to 210, or by 368 total yards.  The Knights have a much better defense than they get credit for, and the bye week gives QB Tayven Jackson extra time to overcome some injuries that have plagued him thus far.  

UCF is the better team, period.  The Knights average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 4.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.7 yards per play.  The Bears average 6.1 yards per play on offense and allow 5.6 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.5 yards per play.  The Knights are primed for a big effort here and I fully expect them to pull off the upset, but we'll take the +3.5 points for some added insurance.  Bet UCF Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Navy/North Texas OVER 65.5

This should be a back-and-forth shootout between two of the best offenses in the country up against two of the worst defenses in the country.  North Texas ranks 18th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds.  The forecast looks great for a shootout in Denton with temps in the 60's, single-digit winds and no precipitation Saturday.

Navy is ranks 17th in scoring at 37.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 477 yards per game and 2nd in the entire country at 7.6 yards per play.  They are 1st in rushing at 318.1 yards per game, and they have one of the best triple-option QB's of all-time in Blake Horvath.  Horvath is completing 65.2% of his passes for 1,063 yards and 7 TD while averaging 11.6 per attempt, while also rushing for 814 yards and 12 scores.

North Texas' biggest weakness is their run defense, which is not good news for them going up against the No. 1 rushing attack in the country.   They allowed 387 rushing yards to Army and 308 to South Florida.  They rank 120th against the run allowing 190.8 rushing yards per game and 92nd allowing 4.5 per carry.  Navy will get whatever it wants on the ground and will keep coming in what should be a back-and-forth shootout.

North Texas ranks 1st in scoring offense at 46.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 494.5 yards per game and 17th at 6.8 yards per play.  QB Drew Mestemaker is completing 67.7% of his passes with a 21-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  Navy's biggest weakness is against the pass because they don't get to practice against a decent passing game every week.  In their three games against decent passing attacks they allowed 321 passing yards to UAB, 345 to Temple and 381 to Florida Atlantic.  North Texas has a better offense and passing game than all three of those teams.

Navy is 6-1 OVER in all games this season going for 62 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  North Texas is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games finishing with 63 or more combined points in six of those seven games, including 69 or more five times.  Both teams have incentive to keep running it up if they get ahead as both are in contention for the 12-team playoff.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Navy +7

What more does Navy have to do to get some respect? The Midshipmen should not be catching a full touchdown at North Texas this week, and they likely shouldn't be catching any points at all.

After going 10-3 last season, the Midshipmen brought almost everyone back and are off to a 7-0 start this season.  I like the fact that they've failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games coming into this one because it has provided us with some extra line value to back them this week.

Navy is ranks 17th in scoring at 37.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 477 yards per game and 2nd in the entire country at 7.6 yards per play.  They are 1st in rushing at 318.1 yards per game, and they have one of the best triple-option QB's of all-time in Blake Horvath.  Horvath is completing 65.2% of his passes for 1,063 yards and 7 TD while averaging 11.6 per attempt, while also rushing for 814 yards and 12 scores.

North Texas is 7-1 this season but I have not been impressed.  They won by 3 over Western Michigan as 11.5-point road favorites and by 7 as 2.5-point road favorites at Army in OT.  Army is nowhere near as good as Navy, and North Texas was very fortunate to win that game.  Against the only team the caliber of Navy they have faced this season they were crushed 63-36 at home by South Florida as 2.5-point favorites.

North Texas' biggest weakness is their run defense, which is not good news for them going up against the No. 1 rushing attack in the country.   They allowed 387 rushing yards to Army and 308 to South Florida.  They rank 120th against the run allowing 190.8 rushing yards per game and 92nd allowing 4.5 per carry.  Navy will get whatever it wants on the ground and will keep coming in what should be a back-and-forth shootout.  Bet Navy Saturday.

20* Memphis/Rice ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Rice +14

This is a bad spot for the Memphis Tigers.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, beating South Florida 34-31 in a game that many felt was the AAC Championship Game.  They have a short week while also having to travel clear to Houston to face Rice.  And they have an even bigger game against Tulane on deck that could decide which team makes the AAC Championship Game.  This is the ultimate sandwich spot for Memphis.

The Tigers could easily have three losses this season and probably should have three losses.  They did lose 31-24 at UAB as 24-point favorites in a clear lookahead spot with USF on deck.  They trailed Arkansas 28-10 late in the 3rd quarter at home before a bevy of Razorbacks blunders allowed them to come back and win 32-31, including a fumble when they were just trying to run out the clock to set up the game-winning FG.  Last week they trailed South Florida 31-17 heading into the 4th quarter before scoring 17 unanswered points to win 34-31, again taking advantage of USF mistakes.  USF outgained Memphis 564 to 450, or by 104 total yards.

Rice returned from a bye last week and upset UConn 37-34 as 10-point home dogs.  That's a UConn team that has been impressive this season.  The Owls used their bye week to really hone in on offensive improvement, and they put forth their best effort of the season racking up 491 total yards on the Huskies.  They rushed for 300 and threw for 191 more on 17-of-22 passing in a completely dominant effort on that side of the football.

Rice QB Chase Jenkins is completing 69.4% of his passes on the season whlie also rushing for 332 yards and four scores.  He is much better than he gets credit for, and this Rice offense should be able to move the ball at will on the ground against a Memphis defense that allowed 219 rushing yards to UAB and 295 to USF the last two weeks.

Memphis QB Brendon Lewis is not 100% and less of a dual-threat now than he was to start the season.  He was knocked out of the UAB and game and questionable all week leading up to the USF game.  Rice has been solid defensively this season allowing 4.4 yards per carry on the ground and 5.7 yards per play overall.  They are holding opponents to 28 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play less than their season averages.

This will be a great atmosphere for a Friday night home game for Rice.  The Owls will be looking at this like their 'national championship game', while the Tigers want to just get in and get out with a win.  I think it will be tough sledding for the Tigers given the sandwich spot on the short week.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Rice win this game outright, but getting a full 14 points is a gift.  Bet Rice Friday.

15* CFB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall/Coastal Carolina OVER 54.5

Marshall is a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  That has been on display the last four weeks as the Thundering Herd are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall.  They beat Middle Tennessee 42-28 for 70 combined points, lost 54-51 to Louisiana for 105 combined points, beat ODU 48-24 for 72 combined points and beat Texas State 40-37 for 77 combined points.

This total of 54.5 is very short for a game involving Marshall.  They have one of the best QB's in the country that nobody knows about.  Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is completing 74.4% of his passes for 1,133 yards with a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 348 yards and four scores.  

The Thundering Herd will be able to name their number against a Coastal Carolina defense that ranks 98th in scoring at 28.3 points per game and 109th in total defense at 409.7 yards per game.  The Chanticleers allowed 37 points to App State, 47 to Old Dominion, 38 to ECU and 48 to Virginia.

The Chanticleers are 2-1-1 OVER in their last four games combining for 82 points with App State, 54 with ODU and 58 with South Alabama.  The only game that went under came against a dead nuts under team in ULM that plays slow, only runs the ball and had QB injuries.

Coastal Carolina plays at the 31st-fastest tempo in college football.  The Chanticleers are coming off their best offensive performance of the season putting up 45 points on Appalachian State.  They also put up 38 points on South Alabama, and they should keep it rolling tonight against a Marshall defense that ranks 114th in scoring defense at 30.9 points per game, 114th in total defense at 413.6 yards per game and 115th allowing 6.2 yards per play.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

25* CFB Tuesday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on UTEP +10

It's time to 'sell high' on Kennesaw State.  The Owls are 5-2 overall and 3-0 in C-USA play while sitting in 1st place in the conference.  They have benefited from playing the 126th-ranked schedule in the country.

The Owls also benefited from LA Tech's starting QB getting knocked out early in their last home game, and they are coming off a misleading 45-26 win at FIU last week in which they were outgained and allowed a whopping 518 total yards to FIU.  They lost some key defenders to injury in that game, and also their starting QB Odom and starting RB Bennett, who are both listed as questionable to play this week.

While Kennesaw State was watching its roster get decimated by injuries in the win over FIU last Tuesday, UTEP was sitting, resting and watching.  The Miners had a bye last week and will be the fresher, more prepared team tonight as a result.

I was happy to see UTEP finally bench QB Malachi Nelson in their last game, a 35-17 win over Sam Houston State.  They must have felt like they had to start him after paying him in the transfer portal, but they have finally done the right thing and started the much more talented Skyler Locklear in his place.

Locklear went 21-of-26 for 236 yards and 2 TD with 1 INT, while also rushing for 48 yards and two scores in the 35-17 win over Sam Houston State last time out.  The Miners racked up 411 total yards in the win.  Their offense will be much more explosive moving forward, and their defense is one of the most underrated in C-USA.

In fact, the Miners have the much better defense than the Owls in this one.  UTEP only allows 5.1 yards per play on defense including 3.7 yards per rush.  Kennesaw State allows 5.7 yards per play on defense and 4.5 yards per rush.  So we are getting the rested team with the better defense and an improved offense catching double-digits here.  Bet UTEP Tuesday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tennessee/Kentucky OVER 54

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 5-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 65 or more combined points in all six of the eight games.  It should have been 64 or more in all seven games but they ran out of time at the goal line against Alabama last week in a game that landed on 57.  This total of 54 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse, 65 with Arkansas and 57 with Alabama in their five games against Power 4 opponents.

The Vols rank 2nd in scoring offense at 44.1 points per game, 5th in total offense at 511 yards per game and 19th at 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 64.6% of his passes for 1,948 yards with a 15-to-6 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State, 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas and 37 points to Alabama in their last five games.

After playing two great defenses in Georgia and Texas, the Kentucky Wildcats should be able to let their hair down here against Tennessee this week.  They returned from their bye with a great game plan against Texas and actually racked up 395 total yards on one of the best defenses in the country.  Freshman QB Cutter Boley has his best performance of the season, completing 31 of 39 passes for 258 yards, while also rushing for 45 yards and a score in the 3-point loss.  He will have great success against this Tennessee defense that could be without leading tackler LB Arion Carter (61 tackles), who is questionable.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Kentucky +9

The Tennessee Vols have no business being 9-point road favorites over the Kentucky Wildcats this weekend.  The Vols just suffered their 2nd loss of the season 37-20 at Alabama last week, and that loss is likely going to eliminate them not only from SEC title contention, but also playoff contention and they know it.  I think they suffer a 'hangover' here from that defeat.

Kentucky is no pushover, especially at home.  After playing two great defenses in Georgia and Texas, the Kentucky Wildcats should be able to let their hair down here against Tennessee this week.  They returned from their bye with a great game plan against Texas and actually racked up 395 total yards on one of the best defenses in the country.  Freshman QB Cutter Boley has his best performance of the season, completing 31 of 39 passes for 258 yards, while also rushing for 45 yards and a score in the 3-point loss.  They held Texas to 179 total yards and outgained them by 216 yards in one of the most misleading finals of the season to easily cover as in a 16-13 loss as 12-point dogs

In their other SEC home game, Kentucky only lost 30-23 to Ole Miss as 8.5-point dogs.  This is actually a step down in competition for them as both Texas and Ole Miss are better than Tennessee, and we are getting them as similar 9-point dogs here.  The Wildcats should still be fresh after having a bye two weeks ago, and they will be highly motivated for their first SEC win of the season.

Tennessee has just one win by more than 10 points in its last six meetings with Kentucky.  In their only two road games this season, the Volts are 1-1 SU but 0-2 ATS with their only win coming in OT by 7 as 7.5-point favorites at Mississippi State.  They also had that 17-point loss at Alabama as 9.5-point dogs.  They may very well lose this game outright as well, but at the very least it should be a one-score game either way.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

20* Michigan/Michigan State NBC No-Brainer on Michigan State +14.5

Getting 14.5 points with Michigan State at home in this rivalry game with Michigan is a great value.  This line is way out of whack, and the Wolverines have no business being favored by double-digits, let alone by more than two TD's on the road here.

Michigan is getting too much credit for a 5-2 start this season with four of those wins coming at home.  Their lone road win was a toss-up game at Nebraska, 30-27.  They lost 24-13 at Oklahoma while getting outgained by 120 yards, and they lost their other road game 31-13 at USC while getting outgained by 173 yards.  This will be another tough road game for them.

Michigan State has hung tough against a brutal schedule after opening 3-0 this season.  They are 0-4 SU but 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They covered in a 14-point loss at USC as 18.5-point dogs, covered in a 11-point loss at Nebraska as 13-point dogs and covered at Indiana last week.

I was impressed with how well the offense played against that elite Indiana defense as the Spartans finished with 367 total yards and were only outgained by 97 yards by the Hoosiers.  That was by far the toughest game either of these two teams have faced this season.  The Spartans also played USC tougher than Michigan did on the road for a common opponent.

Aidan Chiles went 27-of-33 for 243 yards and a TD without a turnover against that vaunted Indiana defense on the road last week.  He has two big-time playmakers in Nicholas Marsh (36 receptions 404 yards, 5 TD) and Omari Kelly (27, 406, 1 TD) on the outside, and I expect them to make enough plays to keep this thing close.

Michigan State has a strong run defense, and the key to stopping Michigan's offense is to stop the running game.  The Spartans are equipped to do that allowing 131.4 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry on the season despite the brutal schedule to this point.  Michigan star RB Justice Haynes (705 yards, 8 TD, 7.4/carry) is questionable for this one after sitting out last game as well.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming -4.5

The Wyoming Cowboys hate the Colorado State Rams as this is a bitter rivalry.  The Cowboys are the better team in the better spot at home, and they will take no mercy on the Rams, who just fired head coach Jay Norvell in the midst of another disastrous season.

Colorado State is 2-5 this season and really could be 0-7.  They beat FCS Northern Colorado 21-17 as 35-point home favorites and needed the refs to hand it to them in the final seconds to get the game-winning score with 45 seconds remaining.  Their win over Fresno State was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  They were +4 in turnovers and outgained by 135 yards by the Bulldogs.

The Rams have blowout losses to Washington by 17, Washington State by 17, SDSU by 21 and Hawaii by 12.  That home loss to Hawaii last week was the final nail in the coffin for Norvell as they were outgained by 174 yards by the Rainbow Warriors.  QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi hit the transfer portal after Norvell was let go, and more may follow.

Wyoming is trying to build something in the post-Greg Bohl era.  The Cowboys love second-year head coach Jay Sawvell, and they are playing hard and well for him.  This is a huge game for them to get back to .500 on the season with a pair of tough road games on deck at San Diego State and Fresno State.  I fully expect them to take advantage.

Looking at the numbers it's easy to see that Wyoming is the superior team.  The Cowboys are outgaining opponents by 17.2 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play, averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense.  The Rams are getting outgained by 79 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play, averaging just 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.2 yards per play on defense.

Wyoming owns Colorado State, going 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  That includes a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Laramie.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Oklahoma State +38.5

Texas Tech suffered its first loss of the season last week losing 26-22 at Arizona State.  I like fading teams the game after having their winning streak snapped because there tends to be a 'hangover' effect.  I don't expect we see the best effort from the Red Raiders this week, and they're going to need it to even come close to covering this ridiculous 38.5-point spread.

Texas Tech was outgained 394 to 276 by Arizona State, or by 118 total yards.  This Red Raiders offense just doesn't have as much juice without starting QB Behren Morton.  No question Will Hammond is one of the better backup QB's in the country, but it's still a drop off from Morton, who will be out this week.  Another big blow is the loss of DT Skyler Gill-Howard to a season-ending injury two games ago.  He was their best defensive linemen and best run stuffer.

I haven't had many breaks in college football this season, but one was cashing Cincinnati -21.5 last week against Oklahoma State.  The Bearcats closed as 24-point favorites, but they were not the right side even though they won 49-17 by 32 points.  The Cowboys were down 18 with 6 minutes left going into score, but threw a 100-yard INT return TD.  Cincinnati scored after a turnover again a few plays later, turning what was about to be an 11-point game into a 32-point blowout.

Cincinnati is a one-loss team and one of the best teams in the country, and Oklahoma State was only outgained by 50 yards by the Bearcats  I liked what I saw as the Cowboys are going to continue to fight for their interim head coach, and their offense looked as good as it has all season.  They rushed for 228 yards and Skyler Jackson completed 11-of-19 passes for 149 yards in the loss.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +7.5

The Texas Longhorns have proven to be one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Arch Manning has been a bust, and this Texas offense just cannot be trusted.  That has played out in recent weeks once Texas stepped into SEC play.

The Longhorns lost 29-21 at Florida and were outgained by 116 yards by the Gators.  They took advantage of an Oklahoma team with a banged up QB and beat them 23-6, but it was a misleading final as they were +3 in turnovers and only outgained the Sooners by 44 yards.  And last week's 16-13 win as 12-point favorites at Kentucky was the most misleading of them all.  The Longhorns were outgained 395 to 179 by the Wildcats, or by 216 total yards.

Texas will be playing for a 4th consecutive week here against a tough SEC opponent, and I question how much the Longhorns have left in the tank.  Mississippi State is motivated for a win after losing three straight SEC games including two by one score.  The Bulldogs had a bye two weeks ago so they should be the much fresher team.

The Bulldogs returned from their bye last week and gave Florida all they could handle on the road, losing 23-21 as 9.5-point dogs.  They outgained the Gators 468 to 452 for the game, and putting up 468 yards on that Florida defense is no joke.  That also gives them a common opponent to Texas, whose lone loss came 29-21 at Florida.

After two straight SEC road games, the Bulldogs return home where they are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS with their lone loss coming 41-34 (OT) to Tennessee as 7.5-point dogs.  Tennessee is better than Texas.  They also upset Arizona State 24-20 as 5.5-point dogs back when the Sun Devils were healthy.  The Cowboys will be ringing, and this will be a big home-field advantage for a rejuvenated Mississippi State fan base Saturday.

Texas is only averaging 274.7 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on offense in conference games this season.  This isn't the type of offense you want to be laying more than a score with on the road here.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Baylor/Cincinnati OVER 66.5

Baylor is a dead nuts OVER team going 5-2 OVER in its seven games.  The Bears combined for 62 points with Auburn, 93 with SMU, 72 with Oklahoma State, 69 with Kansas State and 78 with TCU.  Auburn's offense has proven to be one of the worst in the country since then, and they allowed 38 points to the Tigers.  The Bears are 118th in scoring defense at 31.4 points pre game, 107th in total defense at 406.3 yards per game and 84th at 5.7 yards per play.

Baylor plays at the 5th-fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  The Bears are 26th in scoring at 36.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 486.1 yards per game and averaging 6.3 yards per play.  Sawyer Robertson is one of the best QB's in the nation, throwing for 2,376 yards and 21 touchdowns already.

Cincinnati is also a dead nuts OVER team going 5-2 OVER in all games this season.  They went for 66 combined points with Oklahoma State, 68 with Iowa State, 71 with Kansas and 70 with Northwestern State in four of their last five games.

The Bearcats play at the 32nd-fastest tempo snapping it ever 24.6 seconds.  They rank 15th in scoring at 37.9 points per game, 29th in total offense at 446.4 yards pre game and 2nd at 7.7 yards per play.  Brandan Sorsby has been awesome, throwing for 1,718 yards and 17 TD while also rushing for 340 yards and 6 scores.

This Cincinnati defense does leave a lot to be desired.  The Bearcats allowed 34 points and 597 yards to Kansas and 30 points and 465 yards to Iowa State in their two toughest Big 12 games thus far.  They are allowing 463 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play in their four conference games this season, and this Baylor offense will be the best outfit they have seen yet.

The forecast looks great for a shootout in Cincinnati Sunday afternoon with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Both elite offenses will have their way with these two suspect defenses.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota +9.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes struggle to get margin against anyone right now with another terrible offense this season.  Asking this offense to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much, so we'll take the value with the Minnesota Golden Gophers as 9.5-point road roads in this huge rivalry this week.

PJ Fleck always has the Golden Gophers improving as the season goes on.  They are coming off consecutive home victories over Purdue by 7 and Nebraska by 18.  That performance against Nebraska was their best of the season as they outgained the Huskers 339 to 213, or by 226 total yards.  They finally got their ground game going with 186 rushing yards, and they were efficient in the passing game completing 16-of-20 (80%) of their attempts.  They also sacked Dylan Raiola 9 times!

Iowa is overvalued after beating Wisconsin 37-0 on the road and Penn State 25-24 at home.  Those two efforts took a lot out of them, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank in their 3rd consecutive massive game here against a rival.  This Iowa passing game is averaging just 131.4 yards per game and 5.5 per attempt and they won't be able to capitalize on Minnesota's pass defense.

I love the matchup for the Gophers, who are great against the run allowing just 98.9 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry on the season.  They should be able to shut down this Iowa rushing attack, and I just see this game going down to the wire.

Minnesota has actually played Iowa tougher on the road in recent years than they have at home.  Indeed, the Gophers haven't lost by more than 7 points in any of their last five trips to Iowa City.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Southern Miss -10.5

After taking Marshall to the Sun Belt Championship last season, Charlie Huff brought a ton of players with him and is trying to do the same thing at Southern Miss.  So far so good as the Eagles are 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS this season with their only losses coming to LA Tech on the road and Mississippi State at home.

The Eagles have been putting up impressive numbers this season putting up 30.7 points per game and 5.6 yards per play on offense, while allowing 25.1 points per game and 5.2 per play on defense.  Former Marshall QB Braylon Braxton is one of the best in the conference, completing 65.9% of his passes for 1,710 yards with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 195 yards and a score.

Louisiana-Monroe has been dreadful despite facing a very soft schedule.  The last three games were terrible as the Warhawks lost 42-7 at Northwestern, 23-8 at Coastal Carolina and 37-14 at home to Troy.  They will suffer a 4th consecutive blowout here this weekend.

ULM is a tired, banged up team right now.  The Warhawks will be playing for a 6th consecutive week.  They will be doing so without QB Aidan Armenta (910 yards, 8 TD), WR Jacob Godfrey (12 receptions, 169 yards, 2 TD) and without a kicker.  They also have leading rusher Bralon McReynolds (445 yards, 6.2/carry, 2 TD) listed as questionable, while Southern Miss is fully healthy.

ULM has no passing game, so stopping the run will be key, making this a great matchup for Southern Miss.  The Eagles are only allowing 3.8 yards per carry this season, holding opponents 0.9 yards per carry below their season averages.  I also love the fact that the Eagles have a bye on deck next week so they will be fully focused for this one.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

15* Missouri/Vanderbilt ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 52.5

Vanderbilt ranks 130th out of 136 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.1 seconds.  The Commodores play slow, and while they do so efficiently on offense, possessions are limited in their games.  And with the caliber of these two SEC defenses, this total of 52.5 is too high Saturday.

Vanderbilt only allows 20.0 points per game, 315 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  Missouri has been even better defensively, allowing 16.7 points per game, 242.9 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  Neither offense will get anything easy in this one.

I actually think these are two of the best defenses these offenses will have faced all season.  Missouri and its opponents haven't combined for more than 51 points in any of its last four games.  Vanderbilt has played much more lower-scoring games in SEC play combining for 38 with South Carolina, 44 with Alabama and 55 with LSU, which was pretty fluky last week as both offenses just kept capitalizing on all of their opportunities.  There will be more stops in this one.

The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between Vanderbilt and Missouri.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Navy OVER 62.5

Florida Atlantic is a dead nuts OVER team thanks to ranking 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.1 seconds.  They also rank 5th in pass rate throwing the ball 61.2% of the time.  That means a lot of clock stoppages with them as well.

The OVER is 4-2 in FAU's last six games overall with 61 or more combined points in five of those six games.  The only one that finished under that was against a dead nuts under team in Rice that plays slow, runs the ball almost every down, and has a terrible offense.  The Owls went for 66 or more combined points with their opponents in four of their last six games.

Navy is also a dead nuts OVER team due to having the best offense and arguably the best QB in program history.  Navy ranks 22nd in scoring at 36.5 points per game, 15th in total offense at 472.7 yards per game and 4th at 7.6 yards per play.  Blake Horvath is completing 65% of his passes for 980 yards and 7 TD while averaging 12.3 yards per attempt, and he has also rushed for 640 yards and 8 scores on 6.5/carry.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  FAU ranks 128th in scoring defense allowing 35.4 points per game and 95th allowing 5.8 yards per play.  They cannot stop the run allowing 177.3 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry, which is bad news for them against a triple-option offense like Navy that is going to move the football on the ground at will and continue piling on the points.

But Navy's biggest weakness is a pass defense that ranks 91st allowing 235.8 yards per game and 117th allowing 8.1 yards per attempt.  What makes those numbers so bad is that the Midshipmen haven't seen that many good passing offenses, and certainly not one as good as this FAU offense.  The Owls rank 4th averaging 318 passing yards per game.  Caden Veltkamp is completing 66.1% of his passes for 2,029 yards and 15 TD on the season.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no rain.  Navy is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall finishing with 62 or more combined points in four of its last five.  This total of 62.5 is too short considering both offenses should score at will on both defenses for four quarters in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -2.5

This looks like the best spot I've seen for any college football team all season, which is why it has earned the coveted 25* GOTY label.  Iowa State is off two consecutive losses and off a bye week, so no question they will be pissed off and prepared to beat BYU.  They will also be a lot healthier as they get several key pieces back from injury that missed their losses to Colorado and Cincinnati, both on the road.

Now the Cyclones are back home where they are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS while outscoring opponents 36.7 to 11.3 on average.  They beat Iowa at home and crushed Arizona by 25 at home.  That's the same Arizona team that BYU should have lost to a couple weeks ago, needing a score in the final seconds to force OT where they eventually won.

BYU is the most fraudulent team in the country.  The Cougars are nowhere near as good as their 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS record would indicate.  They are 3-0 in coin flip games beating Colorado by 3, Utah by 3 and Arizona in OT.  This is where their luck runs out.

BYU is the most tired team in the country.  The Cougars will be playing for a 6th consecutive week.  They are coming off two straight wars, winning at Arizona in OT two weeks ago and then beating Utah 24-21 at home last week.  If they could beat one team in the country, it would be Utah, so they are 'fat and happy' off their win against their biggest rivals.  This is where they come crashing down.

BYU had no business beating Utah when you look at the numbers.  The Utes has 470 total yards while the Cougars had just 368 total yards, outgaining them by 102 yards.  It was just another example of just how fortunate they have been this season to remain unbeaten.

The biggest weakness of the Cyclones is their pass defense, but that won't come into play here because BYU's biggest weakness is its pass offense.  The Cougars rank 96th in pass offense at 203.9 yards per game.  BYU QB Bear Bachmeir is a better runner than a thrower, so you can bet the Cyclones have game planned the last two weeks to stop him on the ground.

Iowa State is elite offensively with great balance averaging 163 rushing and 242 passing yards per game.  Rocco Becht is one of the best QB's in the Big 12 accounting for 16 touchdowns thus far.  This will be the best offense that BYU has faced all season outside perhaps Utah, which they allowed 470 yards to.  

This is where BYU's unbeaten season comes to an end.  Undefeated teams that are 7-0 or better when listed as a road underdog against an unranked team like Iowa State are 6-24 SU & 9-21 ATS in their last 30 tries.  The Cyclones are favored for good reason.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* MWC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Utah State/New Mexico OVER 61

Utah State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Aggies have a great offense but a terrible defense, and they rank 18th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.7 seconds.  They rank 41st in scoring offense at 34.0 points per game, 44th at 428.4 yards per game and 27th at 6.6 yards per play.  But the Aggies are 119th in scoring defense at 31.6 points per game, 127th in total defense at 449.3 yards per game and 109th at 6.0 yards per play.

Utah State is 4-2 OVER in its last six games overall finishing with 66 combined points with Texas A&M, 79 with Air Force, 90 with Vanderbilt and 70 with Hawaii.  They went for 55 with McNeese State and 55 with San Jose State, but it took miracles to keep that game under the total.  SJSU and Utah State combined for 995 total yards in that game but both teams left a lot of points on the board.

New Mexico is 3-1 OVER in its last four games overall combining for 58 points with New Mexico State, 63 with San Jose State and 66 with Boise State.  The only game that stayed under came against a dead nuts under team in Nevada that plays slow and has one of the worst offenses in the country.

The Lobos allowed 35 points and 491 total yards to San Jose State and 41 points to Boise State, which are two offenses similar to that of Utah State.  They will allow a big number again here, but I think they'll be able to keep up in a shootout as I love both quarterbacks in this matchup.

Bryson Barnes is completing 65.1% of his passes for 1,644 yards with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 363 yards and 7 TD for the Aggies.  Jack Layne is completing 66.3% of his passes for 1,415 yards and 8 TD while also rushing for two scores for the Lobos.  Layne and this pass-happy New Mexico offense should shred a Utah State defense that allows 269 passing yards per game.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with 63 or more combined points in five of those seven meetings.  That includes 95 and 85 combined points in their last two meetings, respectively.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Ole Miss/Oklahoma ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 54.5

Oklahoma is a perfect 7-0 UNDER in all games this season finishing with 45 or fewer combined points in all seven games.  This total of 54.5 is very high for a game involving the Sooners, and we'll take advantage.

The Sooners have the best defense in the country ranking 1st in total defense at 213 yards per game, 2nd at 3.7 yards per play and 2nd at 9.4 points per game allowed.  They will be able to shut down this Ole Miss offense, which hasn't seen many defenses of this caliber this season.

Ole Miss allows 22.6 points per game and will be able to hold this lackluster Oklahoma offense in check.  John Mateer is playing through a hand injury, and this offense has been held to 26 points by South Carolina, 6 points by Texas and 24 points by Auburn in its last three SEC games.

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 54.5 ticket, too.  There is an 80% chance of rain Saturday in Norman with double-digit winds expected.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rutgers/Purdue OVER 58.5

Rutgers has turned into a dead nuts OVER team.  The Scarlet Knights are 13-2 OVER in their last 15 games overall.  They are combining with their opponents to average a whopping 63.6 points per game in those 15 games.  This total of 58.5 is too low for a game involving Rutgers right now.

The Scarlet Knights have now scored at least 28 points in nine of their last 11 games dating back to last season.  That includes games against quality defenses in Kansas State, Michigan State, Illinois Iowa and Minnesota.  They went for 65 combined points with Ohio in a 34-31 win, 62 with Miami Ohio in a 45-17 win, 70 with Norfolk State in a 60-10 win, 66 with Iowa in a 38-28 loss, 59 with Minnesota in a 31-28 loss, and 66 with Oregon last week.

After going over the total in five consecutive games to start the season, the Scarlet Knights deserved to go over two weeks ago against Washington but fell just short with 57 combined points in a 38-19 loss and a total of 61.5.  It took a miracle to keep that game under, including a combined 6 red zone trips that went for zero points!  Rutgers had 493 total yards and Washington had 590 total yards, so these teams combined for a whopping 1,083 total yards in that game.

Oregon basically covered the OVER on its own last week putting up 56 points and 750 total yards against this awful Rutgers defense.  The Scarlet Knights are allowing 31.6 points per game, 437.4 yards per game and a ridiculous 7.8 yards per play, which ranks 136th in the country.  But they have a very good offense scoring 32.0 points per game, 409.3 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play this season.

Purdue has a poor defense allowing 27.9 points per game, 373.4 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  But the Boilermakers average 393.9 yards per game and 5.7 per play on offense despite facing a brutal schedule of opposing defenses with their last five games coming against Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Notre Dame and USC.  They finally get a reprieve here against Rutgers and should hang a big number this week.

I'm good with the OVER whether or not Purdue QB Ryan Browne returns from injury after getting knocked out of the Northwestern game last week.  HIs backup Malachi Singleton balled out, throwing for 187 yards on just 20 attempts while also rushing for 20 yards.  He brings more to the table as a dual-threat with 142 rushing yards on 25 carries averaging 5.7 per carry.  No matter who is under center, the Boilermakers will shred this dreadful, tired Rutgers defense.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, no wind and no rain.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Ohio/Eastern Michigan OVER 59.5

Both Ohio and Eastern Michigan are dead nuts OVER teams with great offenses, terrible defenses and great QB play.  This looks like an absolute shootout with an Ohio team that just put up 52, 48 and 35 points in three of its last four games.

Ohio will do the heavy lifting against an Eastern Michigan defense that allows 33.5 points per game, 452.5 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play this season.  The Eagles just allowed 44 points in a 44-30 loss to Miami Ohio last week, a dead nuts under team that plays slow.

But Eastern Michigan has scored at least 30 points in three of its last five games and can keep pace in a shootout.  QB Noah Kim is the most underrated QB in the MAC, completing 61.6% of his passes for 1,792 yards and 12 TD this season while also rushing for 4 scores.

Parker Navarro is the best QB in the MAC.  He is completing 65.4% of his passes for 1,471 yards and 9 TD, while also rushing for 441 yards and 4 TD.  He will have one of his best games of the season against this EMU defense, and Kim and company will have to run hurry up to try and keep up.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Appalachian State/Old Dominion OVER 62

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in what should be a Sun Belt shootout Saturday between Appalachian State and Old Dominion.  Both teams like to play fast as the Mountaineers rank 17th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.7 seconds, while the Monarchs rank 24th snapping it every 24.1 seconds.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game and a ton of points.

Appalachian State is 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall combining for 60 points with Southern Miss, 61 with Boise State, 61 with Georgia State and then 82 with Coastal Carolina last week.  Old Dominion is 4-1-1 OVER in its last six games overall combining for 90 points with James Madison and 72 with Marshall in its last two games coming in.

The Monarchs are scoring 33.1 points per game, averaging 459.6 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play on offense.  That includes 40.7 points per game, 550.7 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play at home.  They have one of the best QB's in the country that you've never heard of in Colton Joseph, who has thrown for 1,690 yards and 16 TD while also rushing for 490 yards and 6 scores.

Appalachian State has thrived offensively since switching to JJ Kohl at QB.  He has thrown fro 841 yards with a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio since taking over for AJ Swann.  He led the Mountaineers to 37 points against Coastal Carolina and 41 points against Georgia State in his last two starts.  But this App State defense is terrible, allowing 45 points to Coastal Carolina, 47 to Boise State and 38 to Southern Miss recently.

Old Dominion's defense has been exposed the last two weeks allowing 63 points to James Madison and 48 to Marshall.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, single-digit winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* USF/Memphis ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on South Florida -4

South Florida is the best Group of 5 team in the country.  The Bulls are 6-1 this season with wins over Boise State and Florida.  Their lone loss came to Miami after beating Boise State and Florida the two previous weeks, so they had nothing left in the tank.

The Bulls have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with four blowout wins since, beating South Carolina State 63-14 as 36-point favorites, Charlotte 54-26 as 27.5-point favorites, North Texas 63-36 as 2.5-point road dogs and FAU 48-13 as 20.5-point home favorites.  Now they prove it once again against Memphis this week.

Memphis feasted on an easy schedule to a 6-0 start and then got upset by UAB 31-24 as 24-point favorites last week.  That was a UAB team with an interim head coach and a backup QB, so it was a terrible loss.  Memphis starting QB Brendon Lewis got injured in that game, and he's like 90% to miss this game which is why the line keeps moving toward USF.  It will move even higher once he's officially announced out.

The loss of Lewis is a big blow as he is one of the better dual-threat QB's in the country.  He has completed 69.5% of his passes for 1,337 yards with a 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 435 yards and 7 TD.  Freshman backup QB AJ Hill went 13-of-25 for 175 yards with one TD and one INT in Lewis' absence last week against a pitiful UAB defense.  It's a big downgrade from Lewis to his backups.

Memphis has benefited from the 130th-ranked schedule in the country, while USF has played the 64th-ranked schedule.  Despite the much tougher schedule the Bulls have the better numbers.  They rank 7th in scoring offense at 41.7 points per game, 13th in total offense at 476 yards per game and 22nd at 6.7 yards per play.  They rank 37th allowing 5.0 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.7 yards per play.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest +3.5

I love the spot for Wake Forest this week.  The Demon Deacons have a first-year head coach in Jake Dickert, who is working his magic already after doing the same thing in his time at Washington State.  Teams with first-year head coaches always benefit more from bye weeks than other teams, and that's the case for the Demon Deacons this week.

Wake Forest is 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS this season and even the two losses were impressive.  One came 30-29 to Georgia Tech after their first bye week as 13.5-point dogs.  That's a Georgia Tech team that remains unbeaten this season.  The other was a 10-point loss to NC State, but they led that game 24-17 going into the 2H and were on a short week and ran out of steam in the 2H.

The last two games going into the bye week were very impressive.  They won 30-23 as 5-point dogs at Virginia Tech, outgaining the Hokies 347 to to 263, or by 84 total yards.  And their last game they won 39-14 on the road at Oregon State as 2.5-point favorites, outgaining the Beavers 468 to 309, or by 159 total yards.

SMU is one of the most overrated teams in the country after making the 12-team playoff last year.  The Mustangs have benefited from getting to face two backup QB's in their last three games due to injury.  They took advantage and beat Syracuse 31-18 as 17.5-point home favorites and Clemson 35-24 as 3.5-point road dogs.  In between they had a very misleading 34-10 home win against Stanford when the Cardinal were going into the end zone to make it a 7-point game in the final 6 minutes but handed the Mustangs a 96-yard INT return TD.

SMU was outgained by Syracuse and its backup QB at home.  SMU only outgained Stanford by 16 yards.  The game prior to these three, SMU lost 35-24 at TCU while getting outgained 519 to 384, or by 135 total yards.  SMU is actually getting outgained on the season despite being 5-2!

Wake Forest has elite numbers and is the better team in my opinion.  The Demon Deacons rank 32nd in the country averaging 6.4 yards per play on offense and 8th in the country allowing 4.2 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 2.2 yards per play, which is the 7th-best mark in the country.  

SMU is coming off the big revenge win over Clemson after losing to the Tigers in the ACC Championship Game last season.  And guess who SMU has on deck next week? Miami.  That makes this a huge sandwich spot for the Mustangs.  We are getting the better team in the Demon Deacons at home in the much more favorable spot as 3.5-point underdogs.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

20* Boise State/Nevada MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Nevada +21.5

The Nevada Wolf Pack always seem to play the Boise State Broncos tough even when they haven't been very good over the last couple seasons.  Sitting at 1-6 on the season, this is their 'National Championship Game' once again this season.  They will get up for it on a Friday night home game in what should be a great atmosphere with the MWC champs coming to town.

Nevada is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Boise State.  The Wolf Pack only lost by 7 as 22.5-point road dogs last year, pulled off the 41-31 upset as 6.5-point road dogs two years ago, and only lost by 4 as 14.5-point home dogs four games back.  In fact, 11 of the last 13 meetings have been decided by 20 points or fewer, so getting 21.5 points with Nevada is a nice value.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Wolf Pack, who are much better than their 1-6 record suggests.  They have three losses by 1, 3 and 3 points.  They were also down 8 against WKU kicking an onside kick that was returned for a TD in the final seconds for a misleading 15-point defeat.  So basically four of their six losses have been by one score, while the other two were against MWC contender SDSU and Penn State on the road.

Boise State is a very tired team right now playing for a 6th consecutive week on a short week to boot.  The Broncos are 'fat and happy' coming off their 56-31 home win over rival UNLV to hand the Rebels their first loss of the season.  They never take Nevada seriously, and they won't be taking them seriously in this one, either.

Boise State is just 1-2 SU on the road this season losing by 27 at South Florida and by 21 at Notre Dame, while also beating Air Force by just 12.  The Broncos have allowed at least 25 points in five of their seven games this season so they have a leaky defense.  And I like what I've seen from Nevada QB Carter Jones since taking over.

Jones went 23-of-29 passing for 202 yards against New Mexico in a tough 2-point road loss last week.  He went 11-of-15 for 121 yards and 2 TD in a tough 3-point loss at Fresno State three games ago.  Jones gives them their best chance to be competitive.  I also like taking this many points with a Nevada team that will slow it down and limit possessions, giving Boise State less of a chance to pull away.  The Wolf Pack rank 109th in tempo snapping the ball every 28.3 seconds.  Boise State is in no hurry either ranking 82nd in tempo.  Bet Nevada Friday.

20* Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Alabama/Georgia State OVER 55

The Georgia State Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Panthers and their opponents have combined for at least 58 points in five of their seven games this season.  They have allowed at least 38 points in five of their seven games.

The Panthers rank 136th in scoring defense allowing 41.1 points per game, 129th in total defense at 450.4 yards per game and 126th at 6.4 yards per play.  They are 131st against the run allowing 207.4 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.

South Alabama is one of the best rushing teams in the country ranking 30th at 198.6 yards per game on the ground.  The Jaguars are going to be able to run it at will on Georgia State and continue piling on the points s they capitalize time and time again in the red zone.  The Jaguars and their opponents have combined for at least 55 points in five of their seven games this season, so this total of 55 is pretty short for a game involving them as well.

This Georgia State passing attack has been much better since going to QB Cameron Brown.  He threw for 212 yards and 2 TD in a 41-20 loss to Appalachian State and he went 29-of-38 for 280 yards and a TD in a 41-24 loss to Georgia Southern.  He is completing 67.2% of his passes with a 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio on the season while also rushing for 184 yards and 3 scores as a dual-threat.  I think Brown and company are capable of keeping up in a shootout in this one.  

South Alabama ranks 105th allowing 29.3 points per game, and 124th allowing 195.6 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  The forecast looks great for a shootout tonight as well with temps in the 60's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida International +3

It's time to 'sell high' on Kennesaw State after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  But all four of those games were at home against some suspect competition in FCS Merrimack, Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee and a LA Tech team that lost its starting QB to injury early.  This will be Kennesaw State's first road game since losing 56-9 at Indiana on September 6th.

The FIU Panthers held a players-only meeting prior to last week, and it paid huge dividends in a 25-6 upset win at 10-point dogs at Western Kentucky.  Sitting at 1-1 in the conference and trailing 2-0 Kennesaw State, this is a must-win game for them as they return home this week.  This is 'Vice Night' in Miami and it will be a great home atmosphere for the Panthers as fans show out for this annual event.

There's nothing to like about this Kennesaw State offense.  The Owls rank 110th in scoring at 22.0 points per game, 89th at 363 yards per game and 79th at 5.6 yards per play.  This despite facing a very easy schedule to this point.  FIU held a high-powered WKU offense to just 6 points last week and I think they will build off that performance by shutting down a much weaker Owls offense this week.

FIU has the better QB in Keyone Jenkins, and they also have the best player on the field in RB Kejon Owens, who has rushed for 658 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6.7 per carry this season.  Owens rushed for 195 yards and a score against WKU last week, and they will force feed him again.  They should have a lot of success on the ground against a Kennesaw State defense that ranks 94th in allowing 156.8 rushing yards per game.

The Panthers want revenge from a 27-26 loss to Kennesaw State as 9-point road favorites last season.  Jenkins threw for 204 yards and 3 TD on only 22 attempts, and the Panthers rushed for 196 yards in the loss.  Now they go from 9-point road favorites last season to 3-point home dogs in the rematch this season.  There's clearly value here.  Wrong team favored.  Bet Florida International Tuesday.

20* FSU/Stanford ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 52.5

Florida State is a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Seminoles rank 5th in scoring at 44.2 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 536.5  yards per game and 8th at 7.3 yards per play.  Making those numbers even more impressive is the fact that the Seminoles have played three of the best defenses in the country already in Miami, Alabama and Pitt.  Gus Malzahn has made a big difference calling plays, and the Seminoles rank 20th in tempo snapping the ball every 24 seconds.

The Seminoles are 5-1 OVER in their six games this season.  They went for 65 combined points with Pitt, 84 with Virginia, 76 with Kent State and 80 with East Texas A&M in four of their last five games.  Stanford is 3-1 OVER in its last four games overall combining for 68 points with Virginia and 59 with San Jose State.

Thomas Castellanos has been better than advertised, throwing for 1,365 yards and 9 TD while also rushing for 286 yards and 4 scores.  He should have a huge game against a Stanford defense that ranks 107th in scoring allowing 30.2 points per game, 119th in total defense at 418.3 yards per game and 119th at 6.3 yards per play allowed.

Stanford's offense has been much better at home this season scoring 30 points on San Jose State and 30 on Boston College in its two home games.  They went for 399 total yards against BC and 481 against SJSU.  The Cardinal are a pass-happy offense because they cannot run the football.  They have thrown for an average of 336 passing yards per game in their last three games, and I love backing OVERS in games where at least one of the teams is pass-happy.  Simply put, this total of 52.5 is too low for a game involving Florida State right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati -21.5

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have quit on their season.  Several guys have already announced they are transferring out and there will be more each week.  They are without starting QB Zane Flores due to injury, and the WR room is banged up as well.  There's a big drop off from Flores to the backup, and I can't see the Cowboys putting up too many points this week.

The Cowboys are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS this season with their lone win coming against FSC Tennessee-Martin in the opener.  They went on to lose 69-3 at Oregon, 19-12 as 10-point home favorites to Tulsa, 45-27 as 21-point home dogs to Baylor, 41-13 as 20.5-point road dogs at Arizona and 39-17 as 14.5-point home dogs to Houston.

Houston has a terrible offense, and Oklahoma State allowed 39 points and 485 total yards to the Cougars.  So you can just imagine what this high-powered Cincinnati offense is going to do to this defense.  The Bearcats rank 31st in scoring at 36.0 points per game and 2nd at 7.8 yards per play, which is the most important stat to determine how good a team is on either side of the ball.  The Cowboys rank 129th allowing 36.7 points per game, 135th allowing 475.8 yards per game and 131st at 6.7 yards per play.

Cincinnati has a solid defense ranking 34th in scoring allowing 19.2 points per game.  Their weakness if there is one is against the pass, but the Cowboys won't be able to exploit it with a backup QB.  They only have 2 passing TD's all season.  The Bearcats only allow 3.6 yards per carry against the run and will make life miserable on the Cowboys all game.  The books have failed to adjust for just how bad this Oklahoma State team is again this week.  There will be zero home-field advantage as fans are done with this team as well.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

15* Utah/BYU FOX ANNIHILATOR on Utah -3

BYU is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to facing the 66th-ranked schedule in the country and opening 6-0 against it.  They have padded their stats with home wins over WVU, Stanford and Portland State, and they got yet another miracle win last week over Arizona.  This is where their luck ends against the best team they have played by far this season in Utah.

BYU is a tired team playing for a 5th consecutive week and no must face a very physical team in Utah that will dominate them at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  They needed double-OT to beat Arizona 33-27 on the road last week.  They recovered their own fumble that managed to bounce forward for a 1st down on the final drive that allowed them to send that game into OT.  It was extremely lucky.

Utah is a wagon this season.  The Utes are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and every bit as good as that record would indicate.  And despite that ATS record, they remain undervalued due to their 34-10 home loss to Texas Tech.  It was a misleading final and a lot closer than the score suggests as it was a 13-10 game with less than 10 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter before a confluence of events blew it wide open.  Texas Tech is a national title contender.

Utah just beat Arizona State 42-10 at home, beat West Virginia 48-14 on the road, bet Wyoming 31-6 on the road and crushed UCLA 43-10 on the road.  So they have played a road-heavy schedule, and three of their best performances of the season were on the road.  They will have plenty of fan support for this game being played in their home start of Utah in the Holy War.

Not only is Utah better at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, but they have the much better QB as well.  Devon Dampier is a sleeper Heisman Trophy candidate, completing 71.5% of his passes for 1,131 yards with an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 378 yards and 5 scores.  Bear Bachmeir is a poor man's Dampier and much less elusive.  He is completing 63.2% of his passes for 1,220 yards with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while rushing for 295 yards and 7 scores.  Keep in mind he has played the much softer schedule, too.

Utah ranks 16th scoring 39.5 points per game, 25th at 459.7 yards per game and 40th at 6.3 yards per play.  The Utes rank 11th in scoring defense allowing 13.8 points per game, 19th at 293.5 yards per game and 23rd at 4.7 yards per play.  They have elite numbers, outscoring opponents by 25.7 points per game, outgaining them by 166 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play.

These teams have a common opponent in West Virginia.  Utah beat West Virginia 48-14 on the road, while BYU only beat West Virginia 38-24 at home.  I fully expect the Utes to win this game by a TD or more, so getting a -3 is a great value here.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Alabama ABC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 58.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 5-1 OVER in all games this season finishing with 65 or more combined points in all six games.  This total of 58.5 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse and 65 with Arkansas in their four games against Power 4 opponents.

The Vols rank 1st in scoring offense at 48.2 points per game, 4th in total offense at 527.8 yards per game and 15th at 7.1 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 64.8% of his passes for 1,680 yards with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 117 yards and two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State and 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas in their last four games.

Alabama has had trouble running the football on offense, so they have been more pass-happy this year and that is the perfect formula to torch this soft Tennessee secondary.  QB Ty Simpson is among the Heisman Trophy favorites thriving in Kalen DeBoer's offense.  Simpson is completing 70.9% of his passes for 1,678 yards with a 16-to-1 TD/INT ratio.  

The Crimson Tide got good news on offense this week when RB Jamarion Miller and WR Ryan Williams were both upgraded to probable heading into this one.  After playing three of the best defenses in the SEC in Georgia, Vanderbilt and Missouri the last three weeks, I fully expect the Crimson Tide to have one of their best offensive outputs of the season this week taking a big step down in class here against this Vols defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* USC/Notre Dame NBC No-Brainer on USC +8.5

Everyone is off USC now after losing 34-32 at Illinois and it's now time to 'buy low' on the Trojans.  But there were a ton of factors that contributed to that loss that are getting overlooked.  They were playing their 5th consecutive week, were coming off a late-night home win against Michigan State, and had to travel out East for a 9:00 AM body clock game at Illinois.  

Lincoln Riley has been notoriously poor traveling East at USC.  To make matters worse, there was a bout of food poisoning running through the locked room the night before.  It even kept their green dot on defense in S Kamari Ramsey out of that game, and their defense struggled without him and their top CB.  Both should be back this week.  LT Elijah Page was out as well, so they had to completely shuffle around their offensive line.  WR Ja'Kobi Lane only played 30 snaps in the loss.

The Trojans returned home following their bye week and crushed Michigan 31-13.  They outgained the Wolverines 489 to 316, or by 173 total yards.  What I was most impressed with was the fact that USC won the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, rushing for 224 yards and holding Michigan to just 109 rushing yards.  And that bodes well for them to be able to hold up against Notre Dame at the line of scrimmage this week. I also like the fact that this is a night game so the travel East for USC is much less of a factor than it was for that early start time against Illinois.

QB Jayden Maiava is having a Heisman-caliber season completing 71.9% of his passes for 1,852 yards with an 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 4 scores.  Makai Lemon is one of the best receivers in the country with 44 receptions for 682 yards and 6 TDs.  Having Lane (18 receptions, 313 yards 2 TD) healthy moving forward will make this USC offense that much more potent as he is the clear No. 2.

Since opening the season with a road loss to Miami and a home loss to Texas A&M, Notre Dame has gotten back on track against a soft schedule going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games which would be 4-0 ATS if you bet them early against Boise State where they won by 21 against a 22-point closing line.  I think it's now time to 'sell high' on the Fighting Irish as this will be a huge step up in class for them after beating Purdue, Boise State and NC State at home and Arkansas on the road.

Two key injuries for Notre Dame are getting overlooked here.  They will be without their best offensive lineman and their best defensive lineman this week.  That will help USC be able to hang in the trenches, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Trojans actually win the battle at the line of scrimmage.  C Ashton Craig suffered what is likely a season-ending injury last week against NC State, and injuries to starting centers are as big as it gets in terms of O-Line injuries.  The Fighting Irish will also be without DT Boubacar Traore (24 tackles, 5 TFL, 4 sacks) for this one.

USC has been the better team when you dig into the numbers.  USC is scoring 45.5 PPG, averaging 553 YPG and 8.3 YPP on offense, while allowing 21.3 PPG, 352 YPG and 5.6 YPP on defense.  The Trojans are outscoring opponents by 24.2 PPG, outgaining them by 201 YPG and 2.7 YPP.  Notre Dame averaging 40 PPG, 465 YPG and 7.2 YPP on offense while allowing 20.8 PPG, 349 YP and 5.3 YPP on defense.  The Fighting Irish are outscoring opponents by 19.2 PPG, outgaining them by 116 YPG and 1.9 YPP.  Good numbers, but not as good as the Trojans have put up this season.  Bet USC Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on FAU/USF OVER 72.5

Two of the biggest dead nuts OVER teams in the country square off Saturday when Florida Atlantic travels to South Florida.  In fact, they are the top two teams in tempo this season with USF 1st and FAU 2nd both snapping the ball every 21.3 seconds.  This is the highest total in college football this week for good reason, but it's not high enough.  

This will also be a night game Saturday and perfect conditions for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain.  Both offenses will be looking to put on a show, and both defenses will be gassed by the 2H of this one with how much tempo these two offenses play with.

South Florida is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall and 8-2 OVER in its last 10 games dating back to last season with 77 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  So this total of 72.5 actually isn't that high for a game involving USF.  They will come close to covering this total on their own like they have the last three weeks.  They beat North Texas 63-36, Charlotte 54-26 and South Carolina State 63-14.

FAU is 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall.  The Owls lost 38-28 at FIU for 66 combined points, beat FAMU 56-14 for 70 combined points, lost 55-26 at home to Memphis for 81 combined points and beat UAB 53-33 for 86 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oregon/Rutgers OVER 59.5

Rutgers has turned into a dead nuts OVER team.  The Scarlet Knights are 12-2 OVER in their last 14 games overall.  They are combining with their opponents to average a whopping 63.4 points per game in those 14 games.  This total of 59.5 is too low for a game involving Rutgers right now.

The Scarlet Knights have now scored at least 28 points in nine of their last 10 games dating back to last season.  That includes games against quality defenses in Kansas State, Michigan State, Illinois Iowa and Minnesota.  They went for 65 combined points with Ohio in a 34-31 win, 62 with Miami Ohio in a 45-17 win, 70 with Norfolk State in a 60-10 win, 66 with Iowa in a 38-28 loss and 59 with Minnesota in a 31-28 loss to open the season.

After going over the total in five consecutive games to start the season, the Scarlet Knights deserved to go over last week against Washington but fell just short with 57 combined points in a 38-19 loss and a total of 61.5.  It took a miracle to keep that game under, including a combined 6 red zone trips that went for zero points!  Rutgers had 493 total yards and Washington had 590 total yards, so these teams combined for a whopping 1,083 total yards in that game.

Rutgers ranks 33rd in scoring offense at 35.7 points per game, 31st in total offense at 443.8 yards per game and 50th at 6.0 yards per play.  But this is the worst defense of the Greg Schiano era as the Scarlet Knights rank 94th in scoring defense at 27.5 points per game, 88th in total defense at 385.3 yards per game, and an eye-opening 134th at 7.0 yards per play.  It's not like they have played a very strong schedule of opposing offenses, either as they played at least three dead nuts under teams in Iowa, Minnesota and Miami Ohio with terrible offenses.

Now the Scarlet Knights are going to face the best offense they have seen all season in Oregon.  And you can bet Oregon is full of piss and vinegar right now after losing at home to Indiana last week.  I think they will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters because that loss to the Hoosiers means they need style points the rest of the way.

Oregon ranks 9th in scoring offense at 42.2 points per game, 24th in total offense at 464.3 yards per game and 17th at 6.9 yards per play.  I fully expect the Ducks to hang a 40-plus burger on the Scarlet Knights this week, and I'm confident Rutgers can get into the 20's with one of the most underrated offenses in the country.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UTSA/North Texas OVER 67.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams with great offenses and terrible defenses square off Saturday in what should be a shootout between UTSA and North Texas.  The Mean Green rank 16th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.7 seconds.  The Roadrunners also don't mind playing fast, and these are two pass-happy teams with great quarterbacks.

UTSA just poured on 61 points against a decent Rice defense last week.  North Texas just allowed 63 points to South Florida last week.  The OVER is 4-1 in North Texas' last five games overall with 69 or more combined points in three of their last four games.

The Mean Green rank 6th in the country in scoring putting up 43.3 points per game.  They average 6.2 yards per play with a balanced attack of 268 passing yards per game and 168 rushing yards per game.  UTSA averages 34.5 points per game and should top that number against this weak UNT defense.

I love both of these quarterbacks.  Junior QB Owen McCown is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,221 yards with a 12-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  Sophomore QB Drew Mestemaker is completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,573 yards with a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  UNT head coach Eric Morris is working wonders for yet another QB under him, and his history includes the likes of Chandler Morris, Patrick Mahomes, Cam Ward and John Mateer.

These teams combined for 75 points last season, and they have combined for at least 66 points in five of their last six meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wyoming/Air Force OVER 58.5

Air Force is a service academy so oddsmakers have failed to adjust their totals up high enough for being a dead nuts OVER team.  They have failed to do so again this week against Wyoming, and we'll take advantage today.

Air Force is 6-0 OVER in all games this season combining for 62 points with Bucknell, 79 with Utah State, 86 with Boise State, 79 with Hawaii, 65 with Navy and 99 with UNLV.  Yet the books are giving us a 58.5-point total due to Wyoming's previous reputation, but even the Cowboys have transformed to more of an OVER team this season.

The Falcons have one of their best offenses in program history scoring 38.3 points per game, averaging 490.3 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  They have really thrived since finding their QB of the future in sophomore Liam Szarka, who has thrown for 1,021 yards and 8 TD while averaging 12.5 per attempt, while also rushing for 585 yards and 8 TD on 5.7 per attempt.

But the Falcons have their worst defense in program history, which is the reason they are such a dead nuts OVER team.  They allow 40 points per game, 496.7 yards per game and 8.1 yards per play this season.  You just watch them and can see that they have no team speed on defense, and they keep giving up explosive play after explosive play.

Wyoming went for 63 combined points with San Jose State last game and 57 combined points with Colorado three games back.  They did have a lower scoring game against UNLV at home that finished with just 48 combined points in between, but that game was played in hail and wind and terrible weather aided it in staying under.  That won't be the case in this one.

Wyoming went for 413 total yards against San Jose State last week including 304 passing from QB Kaden Anderson, who has made a big leap in Year 2 as a sophomore.  He should have one of the best games of his career against this soft as butter Air Force defense.  But this isn't your typical Wyoming defense.  The Cowboys allowed 28 points to San Jose State, 31 to UNLV and 37 to Colorado in their last three games.  No question Air Force is going to continue scoring at will against this Wyoming defense as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue +3.5

It's time to 'buy low' on Purdue after four consecutive losses against an absolutely brutal schedule of USC, Notre Dame, Illinois and Minnesota.  The Boilermakers have played the 16th-toughest schedule in the country to this point, and they finally get a reprieve here against a Northwestern team they can handle.

I came away impressed with Purdue after digging into the box scores of those four losses.  They were -3 in turnovers against USC including a 70-yard INT return TD.  They put up 30 points on Notre Dame.  They were only outgained by 54 yards by Illinois and were dealing with a ton of injuries in the secondary.  And last week's 27-20 loss at Minnesota was the most misleading of them all.  They were -3 in turnovers, but outgained Minnesota 456 to 262, or by nearly 200 yards in the loss.

It's time to 'sell high' on Northwestern off a 22-21 upset win as 20-point dogs at Penn State that got James Franklin fired.  But that was a checked out Penn State team that was coming off a loss as a 24-point road favorite at UCLA the week prior, after losing to Oregon in OT at home in their biggest game of the season.  That's three straight wins for the Wildcats as they also beat UCLA by 3 at home and ULM at home.  They are 'fat and happy' and primed for a letdown this week against Purdue.

The forecast is calling for basically 100% chance of rain and 10-20 MPH winds Saturday in Evanston.  The team that can run the football better will have the advantage, and that's clearly Purdue.  Despite the brutal schedule, the Boilermakers only allow 3.8 yards per rush this season.  Despite playing a much softer schedule, the Wildcats allow 4.7 yards per rush this season.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

15* Georgia Tech/Duke ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Duke ML -120

Duke has been undervalued since misleading losses to Illinois and Tulane to open the season.  They have since showed their true colors and gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall beating NC State 45-33 as 3-point home favorites, Syracuse 38-3 as 4-point road favorites and Cal 45-21 as 3-point road favorites.

Now the Blue Devils will earn their respect with an 'upset' win over undefeated and 12th-ranked Georgia Tech at home Saturday.  The Yellow Jackets have no been impressive in their two road games this season, needing a big comeback to beat Colorado 27-20 and only beating Wake Forest 30-29 as 13.5-point road favorites.  This will be by far their toughest test of the season at Duke Saturday.

That's especially the case considering the Blue Devils are coming off their bye week, getting two fulls weeks to rest and prepare for the Yellow Jackets.  Georgia Tech is coming off a lackluster 35-20 home win at 14.5-point home favorites against a dead Virginia Tech team last week.  A failed 2-point conversion attempt by the Hokies in the 4th quarter is the only reason the Yellow Jackets covered.  They only outgained the Hokies 7.3 to 6.7 yards per play in the win.

The Yellow Jackets have benefitted from playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses that can keen up with QB Haynes King and company to this point.  This will be a big step up in class for them defensively against a high-octane Duke offense that ranks 25th scoring 36.5 points per game, 21st in total offense at 467 yards per game and 12th at 7.1 yards per play.  QB Darian Mensah is elite, completing 69.8% of his passes for 1,838 yards with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  He plays with passion, and his teammates love him.  Bet Duke Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UConn +2

Wrong team favored here.  UConn is coming off its bye week getting two full weeks to rest and prepare for Boston College.  The Huskies really get up for these games against Power 4 opponents, and after a fluke loss to Syracuse in OT earlier this season on the road, they are full of piss and vinegar wanting to tase that win over a Power 4 opponent this week.

They get to play a reeling Boston College team that is decimated by injuries and continues to get blown out by everyone.  The Eagles are have lost five straight and are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, losing by 10 at Stanford as 14-point favorites, by 4 at home to Cal as 6.5-point favorites, by 41 at Pitt as 6.5-point dogs and by 31 at home to Clemson as 14-point dogs.  They have failed to cover the spread by a combined 86 points in those four games!

The Eagles are a tired team to boot playing for a 4th consecutive week after physical games against Cal, Pitt and Clemson.  They have played 48 different players on defense this season due to injuries and attrition.  They have allowed 44.5 points per game and 503.5 yards per game the last two weeks.

It won't get much easier against this underrated UConn offense that is coming off a 51-10 win over FIU going into the bye week.  The Huskies rank 22nd in scoring at 37 points per game, 17th in total offense at 470 yards per game and 20th at 6.8 yards per play.  They have great balance averaging 183 rushing yards and 287 passing yards.  Senior Joe Fagnano is one of the most underrated QB's in the country, completing 67.2% of his passes for 1,556 yards with an 11-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  Junior RB Camryn Edwards has rushed for 637 yards and 7 TD while averaging 6.3 per carry.  Bet UConn Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Baylor/TCU OVER 66

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in this showdown between Baylor and TCU Saturday.  Baylor ranks 5th in tempo snapping the ball every 21.9 seconds while TCU ranks 14th snapping the ball every 23.6 seconds.  So these are two Top 15 teams in tempo, and there will be a ton of possessions in this game and lots of opportunities for points as a result.

Baylor is the real dead nuts OVER team.  They combined for 62 points with Auburn, 93 with SMU, 72 with Oklahoma State and 69 with Kansas State.  Auburn's offense has proven to be one of the worst in the country since then, and they allowed 38 points to the Tigers.  The Bears are 110th in scoring defense at 29.7 points pre game, 109th in total defense at 402.8 yards per game and 81st at 5.6 yards per play.

I'd argue that this TCU offense is the best that the Bears will have faced to this point, too.  The Horned Frogs rank 34th in scoring at 35.3 points per game, 35th in total offense at 439 yards per game and 32nd at 6.5 yards per play.  Josh Hoover is one of the best QB's in the country, completing 64.7% of his passes for 1,893 yards and 18 touchdowns.

Baylor's Sawyer Robertson is better.  He is completing 63.7% of his passes for 2,058 yards with 19 TD on the season, and he's more of a dual-threat than Hoover.  Robertson leads a Baylor offense that ranks 28th scoring 36.3 points per game, 9th at 494 yards per game and 30th at 6.5 yards per play.  This TCU defense leaves a lot to be desired after allowing 41 points to Kansas State last week.  And this will be by far TCU's toughest test of the season defensively.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Baylor/TCU ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Baylor +3

I love the spot for the Baylor Bears this week.  They are coming off their bye week and have had two full weeks to rest and prepare for TCU.  Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and are a tired team right now.  I think these teams are fairly equal, but the rest advantage for Baylor should have them favored and not underdogs in this matchup.

I would argue Baylor is the better team when you look at common opponents.  Both teams lost 27-24 on the road to Arizona State.  But Baylor was -3 in turnovers in that loss and only outgained by 44 yards by ASU, while TCU gave up 500 total yards to a mediocre ASU offense and was outgained by 229 yards by the Sun Devils.  Baylor beat Kansas State 35-34 at home two weeks ago, while TCU lost 41-28 at Kansas State last week.  

Baylor's Sawyer Robertson has put up Heisman Trophy-worthy numbers this season.  He is completing 63.7% of his passes for 2,058 yards with 19 TD on the season. Robertson leads a Baylor offense that ranks 28th scoring 36.3 points per game, 9th at 494 yards per game and 30th at 6.5 yards per play.  This TCU defense leaves a lot to be desired after allowing 41 points to Kansas State last week.  And this will be by far TCU's toughest test of the season defensively. Wrong team favored here.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on LSU/Vanderbilt UNDER 49

LSU and Vanderbilt are dead nuts UNDER teams with great defenses that play slow on offense.  LSU ranks dead last (136th) in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 32.4 seconds, while Vanderbilt ranks 124th snapping it every 29.6 seconds.  Aiding us in cashing this UNDER 49 ticket is the fact that there will be 10-20 MPH winds which will affect the passing game.

LSU has scored 23 points or fewer in five of its six games with the lone exception being against FCS SE Louisiana.  The Tigers were held to 23 points by LA Tech, and they have been held to 20 points or fewer in all four of their games against Power 4 opponents.  But the Tigers finally have a legit defense, ranking 5th in scoring defense at 11.8 points per game.  They have held five of their six opponents to 10 points or fewer!

Vanderbilt has put up some solid offensive numbers this season, but this will be the best defense they have faced this season.  The only comparable defense they faced was Alabama, who held them to 14 points in a game that should have finished 23-14 for 37 combined points but the Crimson Tide scored in the final seconds when they basically could have kneeled on it.  Even then it still finished with only 44 combined points.

The Commodores rank 35th allowing 19.3 points per game and 32nd allowing 313.3 yards per game.  They held Alabama in check, and they will certainly be able to hold this pedestrian LSU offense in check as well to keep this thing well UNDER the total.  Vanderbilt is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine SEC games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Friday Night Line Mistake on Utah State -3

I love the spot for San Jose State this week.  They will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home following consecutive road losses to Vanderbilt and Hawaii.  They had a bye two weeks ago so they should still be very fresh even coming back from Hawaii.  And now they are comfortable being back home where they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season.

The San Jose State Spartans will be playing for a 5th consecutive week, and now are on a short week having to travel back home from Wyoming last week and travel back out to Utah this week for a Friday night game.  Their last four games were all decided by one score, so they have been in four consecutive dog fights including a 31-28 home win over FCS Idaho State.  That fatigue showed in the 4th quarter last week as they were outscored 21-0 by Wyoming in a 35-28 defeat.  It will be hard for them to get back up off the mat following that gutting loss, and they will once again wear down in the 4th quarter this week.

Utah State will test those tired legs on defense by playing fast as the Aggies rank 13th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.6 seconds.  Utah State ranks 37th in scoring at 34.7 points per game and 29th at 6.6 yards per play with a balanced offensive attack under Bronco Mendenahll.  San Jose State ranks 119th allowing 6.2 yards per play and 117th allowing 420.2 yards per game.  This is one of the worst defenses in the country.

Utah State has the better numbers, period.  The Aggies average 6.6 yards per play on offense and allow 5.8 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play despite the tough schedule that has included two of the top teams from the SEC in Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.  San Jose State averages 6.1 yards per play on offense and allows 6.2 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play despite a much softer schedule.

Utah State is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with San Jose State.  The Aggies need to be more than 3-point home favorites here considering they are the better, more rested team playing in front of what will be a hostile atmosphere.  San Jose State is 0-3 SU on the road this season and won't be getting its first road win here.  Bet Utah State Friday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on San Jose State/Utah State OVER 64

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Friday night in what should be one of the biggest shootouts of the week between San Jose State and Utah State.  The Aggies rank 13th in the country in tempo snapping the ball ever 23.6 seconds.  The Spartans rank 56th at 25.7 seconds and also like to play fast, so there should be a ton of possessions in this game.

Both offenses are way ahead of both defenses.  Utah State ranks 37th in scoring at 34.7 points per game and 29th at 6.6 yards per play.  San Jose State ranks 119th allowing 6.2 yards per play and 117th allowing 420.2 yards per game.  The Spartans are a pass-happy offense ranking 9th averaging 310.2 passing yards per game and 4th at 42.2 pass attempts per game.  Utah State ranks 122nd against the pass allowing 257.2 yards per game, 123rd in total defense allowing 435.2 yards per game and 125th allowing 32.7 points per game.

Utah State is 4-1 OVER in its last five games going for 70 combined points with Hawaii, 90 combined points with Vanderbilt, 79 combined points with Air Force and 66 combined points with Texas A&M.  San Jose State is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall going for 59 or more combined points in all four, and many of those were against teams that profile more as under teams.  They went for 63 combined points with New Mexico and 63 combined points with Wyoming in their last two games.  

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Aggies and Spartans with 63 or more combined points in eight of those 10 meetings, including 65 or more in seven of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Nebraska/Minnesota FOX ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +8.5

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of the most overvalued teams in the country right now due to their 5-1 start to the season.  They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They were steamed up to 7-point favorites at Maryland last week and needed a 4th quarter comeback to win, 34-31.  Now they have been steamed up on the road at Minnesota this week from -5.5 on the open to -8.5 as of the submission of this pick.

I'll gladly take the value and back the Minnesota Golden Gophers as 8.5-point home dogs this week.  The Golden Gophers are 4-2 this season with their only losses both coming on the road to Ohio State and California.  They are 4-0 SU at home with wins over the likes of Purdue, Rutgers and Buffalo.

This is a tough spot for the Huskers.  They will be playing their 2nd consecutive road game and on a short week to boot.  There was a lot of travel involved flying back from Maryland, so they won't be nearly as fresh and prepared as Minnesota, which hosted Purdue last week and gets to stay at home here.

Minnesota wants to run the football, and the weakness of this Nebraska defense is stopping the run.  The Huskers allow 152 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry this season.  They have been great against the pass, but they also haven't faced many decent passing attacks this season.  Their defense has been gashed the last three games for 30 points by Michigan, 27 by Michigan State and 31 by Maryland.

Minnesota has faced a much tougher schedule of opposing offenses in Cal, Rutgers, Ohio State and Purdue the last four games.  That's partially why their defensive numbers haven't been as good this year, but they are still solid allowing 21.2 points per game and 308.3 yards per game.

Minnesota simply owns Nebraska, going 5-0 SU in the last five meetings including two outright wins as underdogs.  I trust PJ Fleck and company to keep it close even if they are at a talent disadvantage this year.  Bet Minnesota Friday.

20* Louisville/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Louisville +14

We see this story almost every year with Miami.  The Hurricanes start fast, everyone declares them a national title contender, and then Mario Cristobal and company due something to mess it up.  No question it's time to 'sell high' on the Hurricanes after opening 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season.

The 28-22 win at FSU doesn't look as good now with FSU dropping three games including upset losses to Virginia and Pitt.  The 26-7 win over Florida doesn't look as good now considering the Gators have 4 losses already.  They 27-24 win over Notre Dame doesn't look as good after the Fighting Irish suffered another loss, and that was in the season opener.  And the win over USF was aided by the fact that USF was coming off two massive upset wins over Boise and Florida the two games prior.

I really like Jeff Brohm in the underdog role.  I also think it's time to 'buy low' on the Cardinals, who are coming off a 30-27 upset loss to Virginia as 6.5-point home favorites.  But they should be 5-0 when you consider they dominated Virginia in the box score, but gave up two non-offensive touchdowns.  They outgained the Cavaliers 393 to 237, or by 166 total yards.  That misleading final is providing extra line value to back the Cardinals this week.

This is a must-win game for Louisville if it wants to make the ACC Championship Game, while Miami can still afford a loss.  Both teams are off a bye, but that will favor Louisville.  The Cardinals will be looking to improve and will be pissed off coming off that loss to Virginia and will have used these two weeks to get better.  Miami is 'fat and happy' off that win over rival FSU and doesn't feel like it needs to improve.

Louisville is averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play.  Miami is only slightly better, averaging 6.3 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.9 yards per play.  This line should be single-digits, but we will take the 2 touchdowns and take advantage of an inflated number.  Bet Louisville Friday.

15* Tulsa/ECU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 53.5

There are going to be a ton of possessions in this game between Tulsa and East Carolina tonight.  Tulsa ranks 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.9 seconds, while ECU ranks 8th snapping it every 22.6 seconds.  This is a rare matchup between two teams that rank Top 10 in tempo, and this total of 53.5 is very short because of it.

East Carolina has played a brutal schedule of opposing defenses in its last three games against BYU, Army and Tulane.  I think the Pirates will open things up similar to when they scored 38 points against Coastal Carolina in the game prior, and I fully expect them to get 38-plus in this one to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 53.5 ticket.

Tulsa has also faced a brutal schedule of opposing defenses in their last two games against Tulane and Memphis.  This is a step down in class for them.  They also have a first-year head coach in Tre Lamb, so getting a bye week before this game will be big for the offense.  They will install some new plays and have several new wrinkles for ECU, while also playing a lot more efficiently than they have to this point.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings and would be 5-0 in the last five meetings against this total.  The Pirates and Golden Hurricane have combined for 69, 56, 64, 73 and 79 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  They have combined for at least 56 points in nine of their last 10 meetings as well, making for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 53.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Delaware -2.5

The Delaware Blue Hens are the better team tonight and have a massive rest and preparation advantage over Jacksonville State, so they should be more than 2.5-point road favorites in this matchup.  We'll take advantage as this is one of my favorite plays in college football this week.

Delaware has proven it belongs at the FBS level with a 3-2 start to the season that could easily be 4-1.  They beat FIU 38-16 as 4.5-point road dogs while also upsetting UConn 44-41 as 8.5-point home dogs.  They deserved to win in a 27-24 loss to Western Kentucky as 2.5-point favorites as they outgained the Hilltoppers by 97 yards, but gave up a INT return TD and missed the tying FG.  They were only outgained by 2 yards on the road by Colorado in their other defeat.

Jacksonville State is 3-3 this season with the wins coming against Liberty, Sam Houston State (by 2) and Murray State.  They also lost to UCF, Southern Miss and Georgia Southern.  They have played an extremely easy schedule, and they were fortunate to beat Sam Houston State (0-6) last time out 29-27.  They needed a 52-yard FG at the buzzer to escape with a victory over that terrible squad.

Now Jacksonville State has to play Delaware on only 5 days' rest after playing last Thursday.  Meanwhile, Delaware is coming off a bye week and has had 11 days in between games to get ready for this one.  No question they will be prepared to stop the Gamecocks, who rely heavily on the run and are a very poor passing team.

Delaware has been solid stopping the run, allowing 154.8 yards per game and 4.5 per carry against teams that average 195 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry, holding them to 40 yards per game and 0.9 per carry less than their season averages.

The Blue Hens have good balance on offense rushing for 146 yards per game and throwing for 280 yards per game.  They are a stronger passing team, and that makes this a great matchup for them as the Gamecocks allow 7.9 yards per attempt against teams that only averaging 6.7 yards per attempt, allowing 1.2 yards per attempt more than their opponents average coming in.  Bet Delaware Wednesday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Arizona +2.5

The Arizona Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  Brent Brennan was dealt a tough hand in his first season last year, but he is proving his meddle largely due to having 16 returning starters and the players he wants in place this season.

The Wildcats have opened 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with their lone loss coming in their lone road game at Iowa State, which is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  It was also a misleading final as they were only outgained by 39 yards by the Cyclones.

But the Wildcats are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 28.2 points per game and outgaining them by 241 yards per game and 3.1 yards per play.  That includes their misleading 23-17 win over Kansas State in which they were much more dominant than the final score showed.  They outgained K-State 412 to 193, or by 219 total yards.

BYU is one of the most overrated teams in the country due to facing the 89th-ranked schedule in the country and opening 5-0 against it.  They have padded their stats with home wins over WVU, Stanford and Portland State.  They had a misleading road win at ECU, and they only beat Colorado by 3 on the road.  This road trip to Arizona will be by far their toughest test of the season, and I don't think they should be favored here.

This will be a great atmosphere as Arizona fans are excited about this team, and it's a night game in Tucson with kick set for 8:00 EST Saturday night.  Arizona's defense is elite, allowing 15.6 points per game, 245.4 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play.  BYU will be without senior LB Jack Kelly and could be without S Thomas Prassas.  This BYU defense allowed 24 points to West Virginia last week, which was playing with 3rd-and-4th string QB's and missing two of their top playmakers on offense.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

15* Big Ten Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Michigan/USC OVER 57.5

USC is a dead nuts OVER team going 4-1 OVER in its five games this season.  The Trojans and their opponents have combined for at least 66 points in four of their five games this season, so this total of 57.5 is pretty short for a game involving USC.  They have gone for 76, 79 and 86 combined points in their three home games.

The Trojans are much more comfortable at home going 3-0 and scoring 59.0 points per game while allowing just 21.3 points per game.  For the season, the Trojans rank 3rd in scoring offense at 48.4 points per game, 4th in total offense at 565 yards per game and 1st at 8.5 yards per play.

QB Jayden Maiava is having a Heisman-caliber season completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,587 yards with an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 4 scores.  Waymond Jordan is averaging 7.0 yards per carry while rushing for 537 yards and 5 scores.  Makai Lemon is one of the best receivers in the country with 35 receptions for 589 yards and 5 TDs.  No. 2 receiver Ja'Kobi Lane has missed some time this season, but he is now fully healthy coming out of the bye and this offense will be even more potent moving forward.

USC's weakness is against the run, and that will get exploited by this Michigan rushing offense that is averaging 240.4 yards per game and 6.6 yards per carry.  The Wolverines have opened up the playbook for freshman 5-star QB Bryce Underwood, and he's using his legs more now.  The Wolverines will put up plenty of points on this USC defense to contribute to us cashing this OVER 57.5 ticket.  

While Michigan has solid numbers defensively, the Wolverines have played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in New Mexico, Oklahoma, Central Michigan, Nebraska and Wisconsin.  And they gave up 270 passing yards to Oklahoma and 308 to Nebraska.  They haven't faced a passing attack nearly as potent as this USC outfit, and their defense will get exposed Saturday night.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Michigan/USC NBC No-Brainer on USC ML -135

Everyone is off USC now after losing 34-32 at Illinois and it's now time to 'buy low' on the Trojans.  But there were a ton of factors that contributed to that loss that are getting overlooked.  They were playing their 5th consecutive week, were coming off a late-night home win against Michigan State, and had to travel out East for a 9:00 AM body clock game at Illinois.  

Lincoln Riley has been notoriously poor traveling East at USC.  To make matters worse, there was a bout of food poisoning running through the locked room the night before.  It even kept their green dot on defense in S Kamari Ramsey out of that game, and their defense struggled without him and their top CB.  Both should be back this week.  LT Elijah Page was out as well, so they had to completely shuffle around their offensive line.  WR Ja'Kobi Lane only played 30 snaps in the loss.

Now the Trojans are back home and coming off a bye week, so they will be much healthier against Michigan State.  They are much more comfortable at home going 3-0 and scoring 59.0 points per game while allowing just 21.3 points per game.  For the season, the Trojans rank 3rd in scoring offense at 48.4 points per game, 4th in total offense at 565 yards per game and 1st at 8.5 yards per play.

QB Jayden Maiava is having a Heisman-caliber season completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,587 yards with an 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 4 scores.  Waymond Jordan is averaging 7.0 yards per carry while rushing for 537 yards and 5 scores.  Makai Lemon is one of the best receivers in the country with 35 receptions for 589 yards and 5 TDs.  Having Lane healthy moving forward will make this USC offense that much more potent as he is the clear No. 2.

Michigan had to play last week in a lackluster 24-10 home win over Wisconsin.  That's the same Wisconsin team that has been blasted by Alabama and Maryland this season.  In their two road games thus far, Michigan has looked very average losing 24-13 at Oklahoma and coming away with a fortunate 30-27 win at Nebraska.  I would argue this will be their toughest road test yet.

No question freshman QB Bryce Underwood will be good eventually, but he is working with a laughable group of receivers at Michigan that has the case of the drops and just simply lacks the talent that you would expect from a program with the resources the Wolverines have.  USC is going to score at will, and I don't trust this Michigan offense to be able to keep up enough to pull off the upset.  We are getting the Trojans cheap at home due to that loss to Illinois two weeks ago.  Bet USC on the money line Saturday.

20* Clemson/Boston College ACC No-Brainer on OVER 54

This Boston College defense is atrocious.  The Eagles just allowed 48 points to Pittsburgh and a freshman QB making his first start for the Panthers last week.  They are now allowing 31.6 points per game after also giving up 28 to Cal, 30 to Stanford and 42 to Michigan State in their three games prior to Pitt.

Clemson is a lot healthier on offense now than they were at the start of the season.  The Tigers still have a great offense averaging 6.0 yards per play against teams that only allow 5.3 yards per play on average.  They have averaged nearly 500 yards per game in their last two games against Syracuse and UNC, and they should hang a big number on this BC defense that could be without four starters due to injury.

Boston College has a lot of talent on offense and can do some damage against this overrated Clemson defense.  Sophomore QB Dylan Lonergan has been solid, completing 67.4% of his passes for 1,277 yards with a 9-to-3 TD/INT ratio while running Bill O'Brien's offense.  The Eagles and Lonergan will be forced to keep up in a shootout with Clemson scoring at will.  Both teams like to play fast with BC ranking 26th in tempo and Clemson 42nd.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UAB/FAU OVER 69.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams in UAB and Florida Atlantic square off Saturday in what should be one of the biggest shootouts of the week.  Florida Atlantic ranks 1st in tempo snapping the ball every 21 seconds.  UAB also prefers to play fast ranking 44th in tempo snapping it every 25.1 seconds.

FAU runs a pass-happy offense throwing for 318.4 yards per game on 48.4 attempts per game.  UAB is also pass-happy averaging 307.8 passing yards per game on 39 attempts.  The Blazers average 6.6 yards per play on offense and allow 6.6 yards per play on defense with one of the worst defenses in the country.  UAB allows 39.0 points per game while FAU allows 33.4 points per game with also one of the worst defenses in the land.

The last meeting between FAU and UAB saw 87 combined points and 1,098 total yards with a 45-42 win by the Blazers.  It should be more of the same in the rematch this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas/Tennessee OVER 68

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in tempo snapping the ball every 21.1 seconds.  The Volunteers are 5-0 OVER in all games this season finishing with 71 combined points against Syracuse, 89 against East Tennessee, 85 against Georgia, 80 against UAB and 75 against Mississippi State.  This total of 68 is actually short for a game involving Tennessee right now.

That's especially the case when you consider the opponent in Arkansas, another dead nuts OVER team that is 4-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Razorbacks also don't mind playing fast ranking 52nd in tempo, and they now have an offensive-minded head coach as Bobby Petrino takes over as the interim for Sam Pittman moving forward.

Tennessee plays fast and efficiently on offense, scoring 51.0 points per game while averaging 537.4 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play on offense.  Joey Aguilar is a Heisman trophy sleeper, completing 65% of his passes for 1,459 yards with a 13-to-5 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for a pair of scores.  This Tennessee defense is allowing 29.0 points per game and has taken a big step back this season, largely due to injuries at the CB position.

Arkansas has an elite offense scoring 37.4 points per game while averaging 517.2 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play this season.  But the defense has been atrocious, allowing 30.0 points per game and 6.2 yards per play.  The Razorbacks allowed 41 points and 481 yards to Ole Miss, 32 points and 493 yards to Memphis and 56 points and 641 yards to Notre Dame in their last three games coming in.  They will be forced to try and keep up in another shootout here as the Razorbacks aren't going to slow down this Volunteers offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +2

Kansas State was a favorite to win the Big 12 coming into the season.  But the Wildcats have opened 2-4, though they could easily be 6-0.  Their four losses came by 1, 3, 3 and 6 points.  Now they are home underdogs to TCU Saturday, and it's time to 'buy low' on the Wildcats.

TCU is 4-1 this season but the road win at UNC to open the season doesn't look nearly as good now, and they lost their other road game 27-24 at Arizona State.  That was a misleading final as the Horned Frogs were outgained 500 to 261 by the Sun Devils, or by 239 total yards.  They were also sluggish last week at home against a bad Colorado team, winning 35-21 only after a TD pass on 4th down in the final seconds to turn a 7-point game into a 14-point game.  They were +4 in turnovers against Colorado yet still only led by 7 in the final seconds.

TCU will get exposed by a pissed off Kansas State team this week.  The Wildcats will have their full compliment of receivers for the first time this season.  They put up 34 points and 501 total yards on Baylor last week, and they should shred this TCU defense as well.  This pass-happy TCU offense will struggle to move the ball on a K-State defense that only allows 208.3 passing yards per game despite playing a tough schedule of opposing pass offenses.

Kansas State averages 6.0 yards per play on offense and allows 5.2 yards per play on defense, and they are 0.8 yards per play better on both sides of the ball than their opponents allow on average.  TCU has a solid offense at 6.5 yards per play, but their defense allows 5.7 yards per play against team that average 5.7 per play.  So they are mediocre defensively.

Kansas State owns TCU, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ball State +9

I've been very impressed with the improvement of the Cardinals in their last three games after two blowout road losses to Purdue and Auburn to open the season against a brutal schedule.  They came back in Week 3 and beat a very good FCS team in New Hampshire 34-29 at home.  They racked up 413 total yards in that win.  

Then in Week 4 they nearly upset UConn in a 31-25 road loss as 21-point dogs.  They put up 404 total yards on the Huskies and actually outgained them as well.  They got a much-needed bye in Week 5, and used it to their advantage by coming back with a 20-14 upset homer win over Ohio as 14.5-point dogs.  Holding that high-powered Ohio offense to just 14 points is a huge accomplishment.  The Cardinals are now 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and one of the most underrated teams in the MAC.

This Ball State offense has shown life the last three games and will be able to put up enough points to keep this game competitive.  Senior QB Kiael Kelly is completing 60.8% of his passes while also rushing for 266 yards and two scores.  Junior RB Qua Ashley has rushed for 316 yards and 3 TD while averaging 4.9 per carry.  These are solid numbers especially when you consider the Cardinals have faced the 50th-toughest schedule in the country and some very good defenses.

Western Michigan has faced a slightly softer schedule that ranks 60th.  And I just don't think the Broncos should be favored by more than a TD here when you consider how poor their offense is.  The Broncos are scoring 19.7 points per game, averaging 294.5 yards per game and just 4.4 yards per play.  They cannot throw the ball, and they are an inefficient running team averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on 41.2 carries per game.  They were shut out by Illinois, managed just 14 points against Toledo and just 21 points against a UMass defense that is absolutely atrocious.  They won't be able to get margin here.

Western Michigan is also a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week, while Ball State had a bye two weeks ago and is the much fresher team.  That is a hidden factor here that isn't being factored into the line enough.  Bet Ball State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Maryland +7

The Maryland Terrapins are 4-1 this season including a 27-10 road win at Wisconsin as 10-point dogs.  They covered in their lone loss in a 24-20 setback as 5.5-point home dogs to Washington last week.  They blew a 17-0 lead to the Huskies, and they will come back highly motivated for a win this week as they get to stay home and take on Nebraska.

Nebraska is also 4-1 but has benefited from a home-heavy schedule with four home games and a 'neutral' game at Arrowhead Stadium against Cincinnati that was essentially a home game as well.  This will be their first true road game, and the Huskers are 2-8 SU in true road games under Matt Rhule.  The Huskers have no business being a full 7-point road favorite in this game.

Maryland is only allowing 13.4 points per game and 4.3 yards per play defensively this season, holding opponents bo 10.4 points per game and 1.0 yards per play below their season average.  The Terrapins are averaging 30.0 points per game on offense, and freshman 5-star QB Malik Washington has been impressive with a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 3 scores.

Nebraska has struggled to run the ball the last two weeks gaining 43 yards on 31 carries against Michigan and 67 yards on 31 carries against Michigan State.  They won't be able to run the ball on Maryland, either, and their predictability being too pass-happy makes them easier to contain.  The Terrapins only allow 2.6 yards per carry and 5.9 per pass attempt this season.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Air Force/UNLV OVER 65

Air Force is a service academy so oddsmakers have failed to adjust their totals up high enough for being a dead nuts OVER team.  They have failed to do so again this week against UNLV, another dead nuts OVER team.  This game will be playing in perfect scoring conditions in the dome at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, too.

Air Force is 5-0 OVER in all games this season combining for 62 points with Bucknell, 79 with Utah State, 86 with Boise State, 79 with Hawaii and 65 with Navy.  The Falcons have one of their best offenses in program history scoring 36.4 points per game, averaging 468 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  They have really thrived since finding their QB of the future in sophomore Liam Szarka, who has throwing for 846 yards and 7 TD while averaging 13.0 per attempt, while also rushing for 449 yards and 6 TD on 5.9 per attempt.

But the Falcons have their worst defense in program history, which is the reason they are such a dead nuts OVER team.  They allow 37.8 points per game, 478.8 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play this season.  You just watch them and can see that they have no team speed on defense, and they keep giving up explosive play after explosive play.  They are going to continue to get torched by UNLV this week.

UNLV is scoring 35.6 points per game and averaging 6.4 yards per play this season.  But the Rebels are allowing 26.0 points per game and 6.0 yards per play despite facing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses in Wyoming, MIami Ohio, UCLA, Sam Houston State and Idaho State.  I mean they allowed 38 points to Miami Ohio and 31 to Idaho State.  Now they are facing the best offense they will have faced all season by a wide margin in Air Force.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Northern Illinois/Eastern Michigan OVER 47

Eastern Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team due to having one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Eagles allow 35.7 points per game, 476 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play.  I know Northern Illinois has one of the worst offenses in the country, but this EMU defense is going to make the Huskies look like they have one of the best.  This total of 47 is too short for a game involving Eastern Michigan.

A big reason for NIU's offensive struggles is due to playing one of the toughest schedules of opposing defenses.  Their last four games have come against Miami Ohio, San Diego State, Mississippi State and Maryland.  This is a huge step down in class for NIU, and they will easily put up their most points of the season Saturday.

Eastern Michigan does have a pretty solid offense scoring 25.0 points per game while averaging 377.5 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  They should have plenty of success as well against this tired NIU defense that will be playing for a 4th consecutive week and has been on the field a lot this season.

NIU and Eastern Michigan have combined for at least 47 points in eight of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pitt/Florida State OVER 57.5

Florida State is a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Seminoles rank 5th in scoring at 46.8 points per game, 5th in total offense at 560.8 yards per game and 9th at 7.5 yards per play.  Making those numbers even more impressive is the fact that the Seminoles have played two of the best defenses in the country already in Miami and Alabama.  Gus Malzahn has made a big difference calling plays, and the Seminoles rank 16th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.7 seconds.

Pitt likes to play even faster than FSU ranking 15th in tempo at 23.7 seconds per play.  So this game is going to see a ton of possessions.  And I love the move Pitt made last week benching Eli Holstein in favor of electric freshman QB Mason Heintschel.  He went 30-of-41 passing for 323 yards and 4 TD in leading the Panthers to 48 points in a win over Boston College.  Heintschel should be able to keep up with FSU in a shootout in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Alabama/Missouri ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +3

Missouri is one of the most underrated teams in the country and should not be a home underdog to the Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday.  That's especially the case when you consider the massive scheduling advantage working in their favor, which isn't being factored into this line enough.

Missouri had a bye last week after blasting UMass 42-6 at home two weeks ago.  They have basically had three full weeks to prepare for Alabama, and they will be ready.  This will be a raucous home atmosphere Saturday afternoon in Columbia.

This is a terrible spot for Alabama.  The Crimson Tide upset Georgia on the road two weeks ago, then got revenge last week in a 30-14 win over Vanderbilt that was much closer than the final score suggests.  They scored on their final offensive play to salt it away with only seconds remaining, and that came after Vanderbilt committed two red zone turnovers.  I question how much the Crimson Tide have left in the tank.

Missouri is averaging 45.2 points per game, 547.6 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense, while allowing just 14.6 points per game, 198.2 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play on defense.  That equates to outscoring opponents by 31 points per game, outgaining them by 350 yards per game and 3.0 yards per play.  Those numbers are absolutely elite.

People are quick to forget that Alabama lost 31-17 at Florida State in the opener.  That loss looks even worse now after Florida State went on to lose to Virginia and Miami.  The 3-point win over Georgia also doesn't look great as that Georgia team is down a few notches this season.  And the Crimson Tide have clear weaknesses in the trenches that will get exposed this week.

Alabama allowed 260 rushing yards to Florida State in the opener, and they allowed 8.0 yards per carry against Georgia and Vanderbilt the last two weeks.  Now they must face arguably the best RB in the country in Missouri's Ahmad Hardy, who has rushed for 730 yards and 9 TD with a nation-leading 570 yards after 1st contact and 46 broken tackles.  Missouri will get what it wants on the ground.

Alabama simply cannot run the football averaging 127.2 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  That makes them very predictable, and Missouri has two of the best edge rushers in the country to put pressure on QB Ty Simpson, who has been great this season but hasn't faced a defensive line as dominant as Missouri's yet.

Eli Drinkwitz is 10-3 ATS as a home underdog at Missouri.  The Tigers are 19-1 SU at home over the last three seasons with one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They outgained Kansas by 369 yards and outgained South Carolina by 163 yards in their two toughest home games thus far this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Stanford/SMU OVER 55

SMU ranks 39th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 25 seconds.  The Mustangs really profile as an OVER team with a solid offense and mediocre defense.  They are scoring 34.0 points per game and averaging 6.3 yards per play, but they are allowing 437 yards per game and 5.6 per play this season.  They allowed 48 points and 601 yards to Baylor and 35 points and 519 yards to TCU.

Stanford's offense has come to life the last three games putting up 30 points and 399 yards against Boston College, 20 points and 323 yards against Virginia and 30 points and 481 yards against SJSU.  QB Ben Gulbranson is coming off his two best games of the season.  He went 29-of-43 for 444 yards and 2 TD against San Jose State and 20-of-29 for 286 yards and 2 TD against Virginia.  This Stanford offense is humming right now and will continue to play well against SMU this week.

Stanford's defense is allowing 29.4 points per game, 429.4 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  That includes 315 passing yards per game and 66.7% completions, and SMU should have a big day through the air.  The Cardinal will be without leading tackler Matt Rose (40 tackles) at linebacker.  SMU QB Kevin Jennings is completing 71.4% of his passes for 1,411 yards and 13 TD.

Both offenses have been trending very pass-happy because they cannot run the football, which is what you want for OVERS.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation in Dallas this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Stanford +19.5

I love the spot for Stanford.  The Cardinal are coming off a bye week with a first-year head coach in Frank Reich, and teams with first-year head coaches always benefit more from bye weeks.  This is a team headed in the right direction with wins over Boston College and San Jose State in two of their last three games with a road loss at Virginia in between, so they are showing great improvement.

Now the Cardinal are primed for their best effort of the season coming off the bye.  QB Ben Gulbranson is coming off his two best games of the season.  He went 29-of-43 for 444 yards and 2 TD against San Jose State and 20-of-29 for 286 yards and 2 TD against Virginia.  This Stanford offense is humming right now and will continue to play well against SMU this week.

SMU is one of the most overrated teams in the country after making the 12-team playoff last year.  Expectations were high coming into this season, and oddsmakers have failed to adjust them down enough for their poor play this season.  The Mustangs are 3-2 SU & 0-5 ATS this season.  They won by 39 as 51-point favorites against Texas A&M CC, lost outright at home to Baylor as 3-point favorites, only won by 18 as 28.5-point favorites at Missouri State, lost by 11 as 6.5-point dogs at TCU and only beat Syracuse by 13 as 17.5-point favorites last week.

That was a Syracuse team coming off a 38-3 loss to Duke that was down to a second-string QB in Rickie Collins, who just hasn't been effective.  Collins threw 3 INT against SMU yet the Mustangs still only managed to win by 13 points.  SMU has a huge road game at Clemson on deck next week in a ACC Championship Game rematch that the Mustangs could be caught looking ahead to as well.  Either way, this 19.5-point spread is too high.  Bet Stanford Saturday.

20* Rutgers/Washington FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Rutgers +11

Rutgers has a massive rest/scheduling advantage over Washington Friday night that isn't being factored into this line enough.  The Scarlet Knights are coming off a bye week getting two full weeks to prepare for this game, which is huge coming off physical games against Iowa and Minnesota that resulted in close losses by 10 and 3 points.  They were pissed off during their bye week and will come out with their hair on fire to try and get that first conference win this week.

This is an absolutely brutal spot for Washington.  The Huskies beat Washington State in the Apple Cup three weeks ago, lost 24-6 at home to Ohio State two weeks ago, then had to travel clear across the country to Maryland last week.  They used a lot of energy overcoming a 17-0 deficit to beat the Terrapins 24-20.  They then had to travel clear back across the country and are on a short week to boot with this being a Friday night game.  It's safe to say they won't have nearly as much energy as Rutgers will this week, and they will be less prepared than the Scarlet Knights to boot.

Rutgers has one of the most underrated offenses in the country.  The Scarlet Knights are scoring 39.0 points per game and averaging 6.0 yards per play this season.  They put up 28 points on both Iowa and Minnesota, which are two of the better defenses in the Big Ten.  They also put up 45 points on Miami Ohio, probably the best defense in the MAC.  No question they are going to be able to move the football and score points on this tired Washington defense, so they will never be out of this game with this offense.  Bet Rutgers Friday.

20* USF/North Texas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 67.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams in South Florida and North Texas square off Friday night in what should be one of the most entertaining shootouts of the week.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout as well with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation in Denton Friday night.

South Florida ranks 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.8 seconds.  Despite facing a brutal schedule of opposing defenses including Boise State, Florida and Miami, the Bulls are still scoring 36.2 points per game, averaging 446 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.  They are averaging 12 points per game, 103 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play more than their opponents allow on average.

North Texas ranks 19th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds.  The Mean Green are scoring 44.8 points per game, averaging 437 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  They are averaging 18 points more per game than their opponents allow on average this season.

The OVER is 3-0 in USF's last three games overall combining for 61 points with Miami, 77 with South Carolina State and 80 with Charlotte.  The OVER is 3-1 in North Texas' last four games overall combining for 58 points with South Alabama, 83 with Army, 69 with Washington State and 63 with Western Michigan.  Both Army and WMU are dead nuts UNDER teams that play slow and are run-heavy, too.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* ECU/Tulane ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 53.5

The East Carolina Pirates are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 8th in tempo snapping the ball every 22.3 seconds.  They are scoring 30.4 points per game, averaging 461 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They have a pass-happy offense that averages 315 passing yards per game and 8.3 yards per attempt.  This total of 53.5 is very low for a game involving East Carolina.

Tulane has a solid offense scoring 26.2 points per game and averaging 5.7 yards per play despite playing a very tough schedule of opposing defenses to this point that has included Ole Miss, Duke and Northwestern.  I think getting extra time for this game will work wonders for this Tulane offense considering former BYU QB Jake Retzlaff didn't transfer in until the fall.  The offense is a lot healthier too now especially along the O-Line.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, less than 10 MPH winds and zero chance of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CFB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Liberty/UTEP UNDER 48

The forecast and the pitiful nature of these two offenses are the reasons I'm on the UNDER 48 tonight between Liberty and UTEP in this Conference-USA showdown.  The forecast is calling for steady 15-20 MPH winds which will make passing the football very difficult, and both teams will be more run-heavy than they already are.

Liberty is scoring just 17.0 points per game while ranking 115th in scoring offense and UTEP is scoring just 20.8 points per game while ranking 11th in scoring offense.  Liberty is already a run-heavy offense averaging 40 rush attempts compared to 24 pass attempts per game.  They have a poor QB in Ethan Vasko, who is completing just 57.3% of his passes and averaging 2.8 yards per attempt rushing.

UTEP has been very disappointing with 5-star transfer QB Malachi Nelson, who has pretty much been a complete whiff.  Nelson is completing 55.6% of his passes with an 8-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  He also offers nothing on the ground averaging 0.1 yards per attempt on his 20 rushes.

UTEP has been surprisingly led by a defense that allows 26.6 points per game and 5.0 yards per play, holding opponents to 0.7 yards per play below their season averages.  Liberty is also better on that side of the ball, holding foes to 23.2 points per game on the season.

Liberty is 3-0 UNDER in its last three games combining for 36 points with Bowling Green, 44 with James Madison and 28 with Old Dominion.  UTEP went for just 37 combined points with Texas and 41 with LA Tech in two of its last three games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Duke/California ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Duke -2.5

The Duke Blue Devils have played a brutal schedule to this point that has them undervalued.  They have two losses already but have played the 22nd-toughest schedule in the country.  And both losses were misleading especially their loss to Illinois.  They also lost to Tulane on the road.  They outgained by Illinois and Tulane.

The Blue Devils have since bounced back with two impressive ACC wins beating NC State 45-33 as 3-point home favorites and crushing Syracuse 38-3 as 4-point road favorites.  They have elite numbers averaging 7.3 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.4 yards per play.

California is overvalued after a 4-1 start against a much softer schedule that ranks as the 62nd-toughest.  The Golden Bears have the numbers of a .500 team averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play.

The four wins have come against Oregon State, Texas Southern, Minnesota and Boston College.  They got to play Minnesota without its best player, Oregon State is still winless on the season, and Boston College also lost to Stanford.

California is a tired, banged up team right now.  The Golden Bears will be playing for a 6th consecutive week after back-to-back road games at San Diego State and at Boston College.  They lost 34-0 at San Diego State, and that loss isn't aging very well.  Then they had to travel clear across the country to Boston College last week, before flying back across the country to return home for this game.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank for Duke, which will test its tired legs playing at the 21st-fastest tempo in the country.

Duke has a chance to open 3-0 in ACC play and will be tied for first in the conference with a win Saturday night.  They have a bye on deck next week, so they will be fully focused looking to go into their bye perfect in the conference.  The Blue Devils are the better team and this is a short number for them to be laying Saturday night.  Bet Duke Saturday.

15* Tulsa/Memphis ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on OVER 56.5

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22 seconds.  They have a poor defense, and they will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout against an elite Memphis offense that is going to be able to name its number here Saturday.

The Tigers rank 16th in scoring at 39.6 points per game.  They are coming off consecutive shootout wins 32-31 over Arkansas for 63 combined points and 55-26 over FAU for 81 combined points.  FAU also plays at a similarly fast tempo as Tulsa.

Against the two offenses Tulsa faced with pulse, they allowed 42 points and 465 total yards to Navy and 31 points and 438 total yards to Tulane.  Memphis is averaging 247.2 rushing yards per game and 6.0 per carry, and should run wild on a Tulsa defense allowing 179.2 rushing yards per game.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings with 60 or more combined points in six of those eight meetings.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain in Memphis tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Miami/Florida State ABC No-Brainer on Florida State +5

The Miami Hurricanes are overvalued after playing a home-heavy schedule and catching some teams in some bad spots for them.  They caught Notre Dame in the opener with a freshman QB making his first start and escaped with a 27-24 victory.  That win over Notre Dame hasn't aged very well.

After beating Bethune-Cookman but not covering, the Hurricanes caught South Florida off back-to-back upset wins over Boise State and Florida playing a 3rd straight massive game and tired.  They caught Florida off a deflating loss to LSU where they committed five turnovers and gave the game away in a 20-10 loss the previous week.

After playing four straight games at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, now the Hurricanes finally hit the road for the first time in what will be a very hostile atmosphere Saturday night in Tallahassee.  They must take on a focused, pissed off Seminoles team coming off an upset loss at Virginia last Friday night in OT.  They got a tough whistle in that game and lost despite outgaining the Cavaliers and racking up 516 total yards in defeat.

Gus Malzahn has this Florida State offense humming.  The Seminoles rank 1st in the country averaging 600 yards per game, 2nd averaging 8.2 yards per play and 1st scoring 53.0 points per game.  They have the better offense, and I think this Miami offense hasn't been tested by a very good defense yet even though Florida did hold them to 26 points.  

The Seminoles have a solid defense as well ranking 28th allowing 296.0 yards per game and 26th at 4.6 yards per play.  This despite facing two of the best offenses in the country in Alabama and Virginia.  And we saw them shut down Alabama 31-17 at home in their opener, a win that has aged very well as the Crimson Tide have gone on to crush everyone while also upsetting Georgia on the road.  

This will be the best home atmopshere for a FSU game since they went unbeaten in the regular season two years ago and were left out of the playoff.  With no margin for error after the loss to Virginia, we get a fully focused Seminoles team this week.  Plus, Miami is fat and happy coming off a bye week, and they didn't need a bye week because they were rolling.  Some bye weeks are better than others.  Carson Beck had a 3-to-7 TD/INT ratio and his completion percentage dropped by 10% on the road while at Georgia last year.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

15* Mississippi State/Texas A&M SEC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 55.5

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 12th in tempo snapping the ball every 22.9 seconds.  They are scoring 38.6 points per game this season and are coming off a 41-34 (OT) loss to Tennessee last week in a shootout that saw 68 combined points at the end of regulation.

After facing an easy schedule of opposing offenses up to that point, the Bulldogs were finally exposed by Tennessee's high-octane offense last week.  Now they will have to face another elite offense in Texas A&M, which has scored 41 or more points in three of its four games this season including a 41-40 shootout win at Notre Dame.

The Aggies are averaging 35.8 points per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  QB Marcel Reed is one of the best in the country, and he has elite playmakers surrounding him in WR Mario Craver (24 receptions, 477 yards, 4 TD) and Kevin Conception (20, 340, 3 TD).  

The Aggies will be able to name their number, and I expect the Bulldogs to be able to keep up in a shootout with their hurry-up offense.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings finishing with 58, 61 and 66 combined points in the last three.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Rice OVER 53.5

The FAU Owls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 19.6 seconds.  They are 3-1 OVER in all games this season combining for 81 points with Memphis, 66 with FIU and 70 with Florida A&M.  The OVER is 9-2 in FAU's last 11 games dating back to last season with 62 or more combined points in all nine overs.  This total of 53.5 is too short for a game involving Florida Atlantic.

This is a poor FAU defense that will give up a big number to Rice.  The Owls are a run-heavy team rushing for 221 yards per game.  They will get what they want on the ground against a FAU defense that is allowing 174.3 rushing yards per game this season.

Rice has faced a terrible schedule of opposing offenses this season and hasn't faced anything like the high-octane FAU passing attack they will be up against this weekend.  They have played Louisiana, Houston, Prairie View A&M, Charlotte and Navy.  Most of those teams play slow, and only Navy has a decent offense of the bunch.  None are pass-happy like FAU, which is averaging 325.5 passing yards per game and 52 pass attempts per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Eastern Michigan/Buffalo OVER 54

Eastern Michigan is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The Eagles rank 37th in tempo snapping the ball every 25 seconds, which exposes their defense even more.  The Eagles rank 126th allowing 36.6 points per game, 132nd allowing 492.8 yards per game and 134th allowing 7.3 yards per play.

What makes those numbers even worse is the fact that they have played some terrible offenses in their last four games in Long Island, Kentucky, Louisiana and Central Michigan.  Now they have to face a Buffalo offense that also likes to play with pace ranking 47th in tempo snapping the ball every 25.3 seconds.  And it's a Buffalo offense that gets back starting QB Ta'Quan Roberson, who means everything to this Buffalo offense as one of the better dual-threat QB's in the country.

Buffalo has faced some poor offenses as well in Minnesota, Stephen F. Austin, Kent State, Troy and UConn thus far.  I think this Eastern Michigan offense will give them some problems this week and has the ability to keep up in a shootout.  The Eagles are averaging 24.0 points per game, 374 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  QB Noah Kim has been solid, completing 63.4% of his passes for 1,168 yards while also rushing for 3 scores on the ground.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between Buffalo and Eastern Michigan with 56 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  This total of 54 is too low for a game involving Eastern Michigan, and given the head-to-head history with the high-scoring nature of this series.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Virginia/Louisville OVER 61

Virginia is a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and suspect defense.  The Cavaliers are 5-0 OVER in all games this season finishing with 66 or more combined points in four straight games coming in.  Louisville is 3-1 OVER in all games this season finishing with 61 or more combined points twice.

Virginia is averaging 45.6 points per game, 543 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play.  North Texas transfer QB Chandler Morris has been awesome, completing 71.6% of his passes, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and throwing 10 TD passes while also rushing for 4 scores on the ground.

Jeff Brohm has this Louisville offense humming again this season.  The Cardinals are scoring 38.3 points per game and averaging 6.1 yards per play despite a pretty tough schedule of opposing defenses that has included James Madison and Pitt.  USC transfer Miller Moss is completing 65.6% of his passes and averaging 7.9 per attempt.

Virginia is coming off a 46-38 (OT) shootout against Florida State that saw 76 combined points at the end of regulation.  This game feels like a similar shootout is coming.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout Saturday in Louisville with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Maryland +6.5

The Maryland Terrapins are 4-0 this season with four double-digit victories.  That includes their 27-10 win at Wisconsin last time out, which came just before their bye week.  Now they have had two full weeks to prepare for Washington and are sitting on a big effort here to try and remain unbeaten.

This is a terrible spot for Washington.  Two weeks ago they played their biggest rivals in Washington State in the Apple Cup.  Then last week they hosted the No. 1 team in the country in Ohio State.  They came up short in a 24-6 defeat while managing just 234 total yards against the Buckeyes.

I don't think the Huskies will be able to get back up off the mat in time to face Maryland this week.  They don't have much time to recover as they have to travel clear across the country to face the Terrapins.  This is about as long of a trip as you can get for a Big Ten team.  The Huskies have cluster injuries on defense as well that aren't being factored into the line enough.  They are down three starters since the start of the season.

Now the Huskies will have to try and tame 5-star freshman QB Malik Washington.  He has thrown for 1,038 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for two scores.  Many believe he will prove to be one of the best QB's in the country soon, and he could get a bag anywhere he wanted to go after this season because of his talents.  The Terrapins are loaded with receiver talent as a trio of seniors in Farooq, Smith Jr. and Knotts all have between 14 and 17 receptions this season as Washington has spread the ball around nicely.

While Washington and the offense get the hype, it's the defense that has been most impressive.  The Terrapins are only allowing 10.8 points per game and 4.1 yards per play, ranking 7th and 11th in the country, respectively.  I'll gladly take the points on the Terrapins in this very favorable spot off a bye against this tired Huskies team that won't be as motivated to win this game as they were to beat Washington State and Ohio State the last two weeks.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida International +8

The UConn Huskies are a tired team and ripe for the picking this week.  The Huskies will be playing for a 6th consecutive week after four straight one-score games against Syracuse, Delaware, Ball State and Buffalo.  They are running on fumes now, and they should not be favored by more than a TD against the Florida International Panthers this week.

That's especially the case when you consider FIU is coming off a bye week and has had two full weeks to prepare for UConn.  The Panthers have a first-year head coach in Willie Simmons, and first-year head coaches benefit more from bye weeks than the rest of the coaches.  Look for the Panthers to have his systems down now and to be as sharp as they've been all season this week.

FIU is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS this season.  After opening with a 42-9 win over Bethune-Cookman as 26.5-point favorites, the Panthers were game in a 34-0 loss at Penn State as 42-point dogs as the cover was never in question.  Then they beat rival Florida Atlantic 38-28 at home as 1.5-point favorites, before a misleading 38-16 loss to Delaware as 4.5-point favorites.  The Panthers actually outgained the Blue Hens in that loss.  Keep in mind Delaware also upset UConn on the road earlier this season.

It's a bad look for UConn being in one-score games with both Ball State and Buffalo since that loss to Delaware.  The Huskies were 21-point favorites against Ball State and only won by 6 and were actually outgained by the Cardinals.  They were also outgained by Buffalo in a 3-point win, and that's a Buffalo team that was playing with a backup QB.  I'm not even sure UConn is a better team than FIU at this point.  Given the horrific spot for the Huskies and the great one for the Panthers, this number is a few notches too high at minimum.  Bet Florida International Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Temple OVER 56.5

UTSA is a dead nuts OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense.  You could tell that was going to be the case coming into the season with 9 starters back on offense but only 2 starters back on defense.  That has played out thus far.

UTSA boasts an offense that is putting up 31.3 points per game, 406 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  But the Roadrunners allow 30.3 points per game, 408 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  The OVER 3-1 in all UTSA games this season combining for 66 points with Texas A&M, 79 with Texas State and 68 with Incarnate Word.

Temple is 3-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Owls combined for 52 points with UMass, 62 with Howard and 69 with Georgia Tech in their three games that went over the total.  I like QB Evan Simon, who has a 10-to-0 TD/INT ratio despite playing Oklahoma and Georgia Tech already and a tough schedule of opposing defenses.  The Owls have a lot more talent on offense than they do on defense, as evidenced by giving up 42 to Oklahoma and 45 to Georgia Tech.

Both meetings between Temple and UTSA over the last two seasons sailed over the total with a 51-27 win by UTSA in 2024 and 78 combined points with a 55.5-point total, and a 49-34 win by the Roadrunners in 2023 and 83 combined points with a 56-point total.  The books have made the mistake of setting this total too low once again in 2025.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* SEC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Kentucky/Georgia UNDER 48.5

The Kentucky Wildcats have been a dead nuts UNDER team the entire Mark Stoops tenure.  They play great defense, and they play at a snail's pace on offense to try and shorten games to give themselves their best chance to win.  That's especially the case when the play some of the top teams in the SEC like Georgia.

Kentucky ranks 85th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 27.1 seconds.  Georgia is in no hurry either, ranking 72nd in tempo snapping the ball every 26.5 seconds.  Both teams have been more impressive on defense than they have been on offense this season, and both have QB's that just aren't up to SEC standards.

Kentucky is averaging just 5.3 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.7 yards per play on defense against teams that average 6.2 per play.  They have faced some very good offenses in Toledo, Ole Miss and South Carolina.  So they have been battle tested and have held their own defensively.

Kentucky has flip flopped QB's this season with Calzada completing 25-of-53 (47.2%) of his passes and Boley completing 23-of-43 (53.5%).  They just don't have a QB on the roster capable of completing forward passes consistently, and I fully expect this elite Georgia defense to shut them down.  

The Bulldogs are allowing 19.5 points per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that average 38.6 points per game and 6.2 per play, holding them to 19.1 points per game below their season averages.  They have already faced two elite offenses in Tennessee and Alabama in their last two games, so this is a big step down in class for them.

I'm just not a fan of Georgia QB Gunnar Stockton who has only thrown 5 TD passes in four games.  He is more of a threat as a runner than he is as a thrower.  Kentucky should be able to bottle him up enough and limit this Georgia offense to 31 points or fewer.  And I don't think Kentucky will top 17 in this one.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 43 or fewer combined points in five of those six, including 25 or fewer in four of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on UAB +7

The spot really favors UAB in this one.  The Blazers are coming off their bye week, so they have two weeks to prepare for Army's triple-option.  They have already faced Navy's triple-option this season and held up well, losing 38-24 as 20.5-point road dogs.  They were only outgained by 50 yards and were -3 in turnovers in that game as it was much closer than the 14-point final indicates.

UAB defensive coordinator Steve Russ is very familiar with defending the triple-option.  He actually played at Air Force and spent six season as their defensive coordinator after.  The defense should be much healthier off the bye, and this Army offense isn't nearly as potent as what they saw against Navy.

The Black Knights are only averaging 23.8 points per game and 4.9 yards per play this season.  They won't be able to go on the road and get margin against a UAB offense that will just keep coming.  The Blazers average 32.8 points per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.

The Blazers scored 24 points on Navy with 413 total yards and they also put up 24 points on Tennessee and finished with 394 total yards.  They have an elite passing attack led by QB Jalen Kitna, who is completing 71.5% of his passes and averaging 8.3 per attempt this season despite the tough schedule.

Army is allowing 31.0 points per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.  They are allowing 7.3 yards per attempt in the passing game and you can throw on this Army defense that has taken a big step back this season as well.  The Black Knights rank 127th in pass success rate allowed, while UAB's pass offense ranks in the Top 20.  Army lost 28-6 at East Carolina last week and remains overvalued this week.  Bet UAB Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Iowa State/Cincinnati OVER 53.5

Cincinnati is a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and suspect defense.  The Bearcats also rank 34th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds, so they like to play fast.  They will control the tempo playing at home Saturday against Iowa State.

Cincinnati ranks 17th scoring 39.5 points per game, 17th averaging 479.5 yards per game and 3rd averaging 8.1 yards per play on offense.  This despite playing a pretty difficult schedule that has included Nebraska and Kansas.  The Bearcats are coming off a 37-34 shootout win over Kansas.  They had 603 total yards while allowing 597 total yards in an absolute shootout.

Iowa State just put up 39 points on Arizona last week stepping back into Big 12 play.  The Cyclones have a dynamic offense with a great QB in Rocco Becht and a plethora of playmakers both at the WR and TE positions.  In fact, they may have the best TE room in the country.  And ECU transfer WR Chase Sowell had his breakout game last week, catching 4 balls for 146 yards.  He's finally healthy and at full strength now and will be a problem for opposing defenses moving forward.

Iowa State has benefited from a weak schedule of opposing offenses in Kansas State, South Dakota, Iowa, Arkansas State and Arizona.  The Cyclones take a big step up in class trying to tame QB Brendan Sorsby and this Cincinnati offense.  Sorsby is completing 69.2% of his passes with 10 TD, while also rushing for 227 yards and 4 scores.  He should have a field day against an Iowa State defense that will be without its top to cornerbacks in Jontez Williams and Jeremiah Cooper, who both suffered season-ending injuries.  

Becht and company are going to be forced to keep up and shootout, and I think they'll be up to the task in this one.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation in Cincinnati Saturday.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +15

I love the spot for Ball State Saturday.  They have a first-year head coach and are coming off a bye week.  First-year head coaches benefit the most from bye weeks because they're implementing new systems, and players need that extra time to figure it out.  And I've been very impressed with the improvement of the Cardinals in their last two games after two blowout road losses to Purdue and Auburn to open the season against a brutal schedule.

They came back in Week 3 and beat a very good FCS team in New Hampshire 34-29 at home.  They racked up 413 total yards in that win.  Then last time out they nearly upset UConn in a 31-25 road loss as 21-point dogs.  They put up 404 total yards on the Huskies and actually outgained them as well.

Ohio is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week.  The Bobcats have one of the worst defenses in the country, and they should not be 15-point road favorites here given the state of their defense.  Ohio allows 27.2 points per game while ranking 111th in total defense at 410.2 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play.

This Ball State offense has shown life the last two games and will be able to put up enough points to keep this game competitive.  Senior QB Kiael Kelly is completing 64.8% of his passes while also rushing for 170 yards and a score.  Junior RB Qua Ashley has rushed for 295 yards and 3 TD while averaging 5.7 per carry.  These are solid numbers especially when you consider the Cardinals have faced the 32nd-toughest schedule in the country and some very good defenses.  Bet Ball State Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +10

This is one of the worst spots of the season for Illinois.  The Fighting Illini bounced back from their 63-10 drubbing at Indiana two weeks ago with a 34-32 upset home win over USC as 7-point dogs last week.  They have an even bigger game at home against Ohio State on deck next week, and this is the clear letdown spot for the Fighting Illini at Purdue this week.

Illinois just won't have much left in the tank for Purdue playing for a 6th consecutive week.  Meanwhile, Purdue is coming off a bye week under first-year head coach Barry Odom.  Teams with first-year head coaches benefit from bye weeks more than other teams, and that will be the case here for the Boilermakers.

They needed the bye after losses to USC at home and Notre Dame on the road coming in.  They played USC much tougher than the final score of 33-17 showed, and they put up 30 points on Notre Dame.  They were -3 in turnovers against USC including a pick-6 that changed the game.

I love what I've seen from Purdue sophomore QB Ryan Brown, who got his feet wet at a freshman last year and has taken a big leap forward this year despite a brutal schedule.  Browne is completing 63.1% of his passes and averaging 8.5 yards per attempt.  Brown threw for 311 yards in the opener against Ball State, 305 against USC and 250 against Notre Dame.

Purdue also wants revenge from a 50-49 (OT) loss at Illinois last season.  Browne had his best game of the season against the Fighting Illini in that loss, completing 18-of-26 passes for 297 yards and 3 TD without an interception, while also rushing for 118 yards.  He has already shown he can have a big game against this Illinois defense, and I think he'll have another big game that could lead to an outright upset given the favorable spot for the Boilermakers this weekend.  Bet Purdue Saturday.