20* BYU/SMU ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 56.5

The BYU Cougars and SMU Mustangs should take part in a shootout Friday night at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX.  The forecast is perfect with temps in the 90's and light winds at game time as both defenses will be worn out in the second half with these hot temps.

SMU is an offensive juggernaut this season and has been for the last five years.  The Mustangs have averaged at least 37.2 points per game for five consecutive seasons.  They put up 38.7 points per game and 454 yards per game last season and brought back eight starters from that team.

QB Prestone Stone is back after completing 60% of his passes for 3,197 yards with a 28-to-6 TD/INT ratio.  Each of his top six receivers are back as are each of the top three running backs.  The Mustangs led 42-7 at halftime against Houston Christian last time out before calling off the dogs in a 59-7 win.  

With this spread sitting at -11 right now, this game is expected to be competitive so SMU will keep the foot on the gas for four quarters.  The Mustangs run one of the fastest tempos in all of college football ranking 4th in seconds per play (20.6) currently.

BYU should be improved offensively in a big way this season.  The Cougars return eight starters on offense.  Kedon Slovis was a major disappointment at QB last year, and backup Jake Retzlaff is ready to take the reigns.  Retzlaff threw for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 41-13 win over Southern Illinois in the opener as a 16.5-point favorite.

Six of the top seven receivers return including Chase Roberts, who had 42 receptions for 573 yards and 5 TD last season.  He had 7 receptions for 108 yards in the opener.  Leading rusher LJ Martin returns after rushing for 518 yards and 4 TD on 4.8 per carry last year.  Martin had 67 rushing yards on 13 carries and a score in the opener.  This is a veteran offensive line as well.

BYU had its worst season in years defensively after joining the Big 12 last season.  The Cougars allowed 29.8 points per game and 418 yards per game.  They only return six starters on defense and lose their top two tacklers.  SMU should be able to name its number on this BYU defense, which allowed 31 or more points eight times last year against mostly Big 12 competition.  The Cougars will have to try and play catch up which will only benefit this OVER 56.5 ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* BC/Florida State ESPN No-Brainer on Boston College +20.5

Note: I released BC +20.5 last Saturday. Still a 20* down to +14.5 but will be graded at +20.5.

The Florida State Seminoles showed their vulnerabilities last year after losing starting QB Jordan Travis to injury.  They only beat Florida 24-15, beat Louisville 16-6 and lost 63-3 to Georgia in their final three games without him.  DJ Uiagalelei is on his 3rd team in 3 years and is a big step down from Travis.

Only five starters return on offense as the Seminoles lose their top three receivers from last year as well as leading rusher Trey Benson.  It's going to take a few games for Uiagalelei to get acclimated to Mike Norvell's offense and all these new playmakers.

Florida State only returns five starters from what was a loaded defense last year.  They lost five starters to the NFL draft including a first, two seconds and a 3rd-round pick.  It's a tall task for this inexperienced defense to try and have to defend a dual-threat QB like Thomas Castellanos in their 2nd game of the season.

I was on Georgia Tech +10.5 over Florida State in Dublin, Ireland.  The Yellow Jackets won outright.  I'm fading Florida State for many of the same reasons, plus a few others.  The trip back from Dublin will mean the Seminoles have spent a few days getting acclimated to the time zone change.  No question they will try to respond off that upset defeat, but they aren't good enough to beat Boston College by three touchdowns or more.

Georgia Tech manhandled Florida State at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  There was nothing fluky about their upset win, and if anything they shouldn't have even needed a last-second field goal to beat the Seminoles.  Florida State's defense has struggled with dual-threat QB's like Haynes King.

Boston College is loaded with 17 returning starters as new head coach Bill O'Brien steps into a great situation.  O'Brien was born in Boston and meant to be a college head coach.  The key is returning QB Thomas Castellanos, who threw for 2,248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year while also rushing for 1,113 yards and 13 scores.

Boston College nearly upset Florida State in a 31-29 loss as 25-point underdogs last season.  The Eagles outgained the Seminoles 457 to 351, or by 106 total yards and should have won outright.  Castellanos went off for 305 passing yards and 95 rushing yards in the loss.  He will have another big game here to keep the revenge-minded Eagles in it for four quarters.  

Rested teams in Week 1 against teams that played in Week 0 have the advantage with film on their opponent who they have been preparing for all offseason.  Teams that played in Week 0 were game planning for a different opponent.  That is evident by the fact that the rested teams in Week 1 playing their first game of the season are 60-34 ATS since 2005 against teams with a game under their belt like Florida State.  Bet Boston College Monday.

20* LSU/USC ABC No-Brainer on USC +4.5

The USC Trojans are going to be one of the best teams in the country this season.  Lincoln Riley has always been able to coach up an offense with several Heisman Trophy winners coming from his offenses at quarterback.  But he has neglected defense up to this point, until now.

Riley made one of the best hires of the offseason by bringing in defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn from crosstown rival UCLA.  His defense thrived last year and actually held USC to a season-low in points.  Not to mention, Riley was able to bring in two-time FCS national championship winning head coach Matt Entz from North Dakota State to be the linebackers coach and help out with the defense.

With nine starters back on defense and a ton of talent, I trust Lynn and Entz to get the most out of this unit.  This could be the best defense Riley has ever had.  And I trust his offense enough that I'm not worried about them returning just five starters on offense.  QB Miller Moss threw 6 touchdown passes against Louisville in the bowl game and is ready to be the next Heisman Trophy candidate.  Riley believes this is his most talented offensive line in his three years here as well.

Speaking of Heisman Trophy winners, LSU had to part ways with Jayden Daniels, who threw for 3,812 yards with a 40-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 1,134 yards and 10 TD last year.  He is simply irreplaceable, and I"m not a big fan of his replacement in Garrett Nussmeier, who has completed less than 60% of his passes in his three years here.  The Tigers lose two NFL receivers in Malik Nabers (89 receptions, 1,569 yards, 14 TD) and Brian Thomas (68, 1,177, 17 TD) to the draft.

LSU allowed 28.0 points per game and 417 yards per game last season.  Only six starters are back on defense, and this unit is a big question mark again heading into 2024.  Brian Kelly brought in defensive coordinator Blake Baker from Missouri, but that's not nearly as big of an upgrade as USC.  The Tigers also lost their offensive coordinator in Mike Denbrock to Notre Dame.

This game will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.  It's a short drive for USC fans and they will have the home-field advantage.  I think they are the better team and should not be underdogs in this opener as well.  Lincoln Riley is 38-4 SU in the first six games of the season, including a perfect 12-0 at USC.  Bet USC Sunday.

20* Notre Dame/Texas A&M ABC No-Brainer on Texas A&M -3

Jimbo Fisher recruited some of the best talent in the country to College Station but he just didn't know how to get the most out of it.  In steps Mike Elko, who is knowing for getting the most out of his talent on hand.  He showed that at Duke doing a remarkable job there the last two years.  And he is familiar with Texas A&M considering he was the defensive coordinator here from 2018 to 2021.

Elko inherits all that talent that Fisher left behind with 18 returning starters.  He believes this is the most talented defense he has ever coached which is saying a lot.  The offense is also loaded and QB Conner Weigman has been great when healthy.  He completed 69% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio last year while also rushing for a pair of touchdowns.

Notre Dame has gotten a lot of hype this offseason as a playoff contender due to a pretty easy schedule by their standards.  But things have not gone according to plan in the offseason.  The Fighting Irish will be starting three freshmen and two starters along the offensive line after Joe Alt was taken 5th in the NFL Draft.  They lost his replacement in Charles Jagusah to a torn pec in early August.

Notre Dame has the talent defensively to match that of Texas A&M, but the key advantage the Aggies have with their uber-talented defensive line up against this young Notre Dame offensive line will be the difference in this game.  Also, Elko will have the advantage knowing ND QB Riley Leonard's strengths and weaknesses after coaching him at Duke and will scheme it up to stop him.

Notre Dame's last win as a road underdog of +3 or higher came all the way back in 2012.  The Fighting Irish have come up short time and time again in these big road games.  College Station is one of the toughest places to play in the country, and this will be a rowdy crowd for a Saturday night game with fans excited about the new regime led by Elko and company.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Nebraska -27

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country.  In Matt Rhule I trust.  He is a program builder, and he will have the Huskers going bowling for the first time since 2016.  Rhule went 2-10, 6-6, 10-4 and then 10-4 in his four years at Temple.  He went 1-11, 7-6 and then started 10-1 in his three seasons at Baylor.

Rhule has 17 starters back this season.  Eight starters return to an elite defense that allowed just 18.3 points per game last season.  The Huskers have one of the best defensive lines in the country leading the way.  They can rely on this defense to be competitive in every game.

But the real excitement comes on offense, where nine starters return and they add in the 2nd-rated QB in the entire country in 5-star prospect Dylan Raiola.  He lit it up in the Spring Game and is the real deal.  Raiola gives the Huskers hope, and he has a solid offensive line and receivers in front of him.They added Jahmal Banks from Wake Forest and Isaiah Neyor from Wyoming as two very good weapons outside.

UTEP is going to be one of the worst teams in the country this season.  The Miners are rebuilding under first-year head coach Scotty Walden, who comes over from Austin Peay.  He brought with him 10 players from Austin Peay, and this is going to be a wide awakening for these players from playing FCS talent to FBS talent.

Only nine starters are back from last year's team that finished 3-9.  QB Cade McConnell is back to lead the offense after completing just 53.5% of his passes with a 6-to-4 TD/INT ratio last year.  They lose their top three receivers including Kelly Akharaiyi, who had 48 receptions for 1,033 yards and 7 touchdowns last year.  Each of their top three rushers are gone.  All five starters are gone on the offensive line.  Each of the top three tacklers on defense departed, including LB Tyrice Knight (140 tackles, 15.5 for loss).

Nebraska fans finally have something to look forward to with Rhule, QB Raiola and these 17 returning starters this year.  These players want to make a statement in Week 1 and show that they are for real this season and not just hype.  They will keep pouring on the points, thus I'm willing to lay the -27.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado State +32.5

Jay Norvell is entering Year 3 at Colorado State.  Year 3 is when coaches usually make their biggest impact because they have most of their players in place.  Norvell did a tremendous job turning around Nevada and leading them to four bowl games.  He will do the same at Colorado State.

Norvell now has most of his players in place and 14 returning starters that are accustomed to his systems.  The offense is loaded with QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and WR Tory Horton playing behind what will be a drastically improved offensive line from Year 1.  Fowler-Nicolosi completed 62.1% of his passes for 3,460 yards and 22 touchdowns last year.  Horton had 96 receptions for 1,136 yards and 8 TD last year and is one of the best receivers in the country.

This Colorado State defense figures to improve a lot as well with seven starters back from a unit that gave up 29.6 points per game last year.  They they led by first-team All-MWC SS Jack Howell (114 tackles last year) and 2nd-team All-MWC LB Chase Wilson (107 tackles last year).  Colorado State took Colorado to double-OT on the road last year, and they also upset Boise State at home.

The Texas Longhorns made the four-team playoff last year and expectations are very high for them.  With those expectations come inflated lines, and I think that is the case here in Week 1.  That's especially the case with the Longhorns having a huge game on deck against Michigan next week, and they could easily be looking ahead to that game.  At the very least they will be looking to get their starters out in the 2H to keep them healthy for it.

Texas will be without its top two RB's in Baxter and Clark for this one after losing leading rusher Jonathon Brooks (1,139 yards, 10 TD) from last year.  The Longhorns also lose their top four receivers from a year ago.  I don't expect Quinn Ewers to be in sync with all his new playmakers to start the season.  I think this Rams defense can hold the Longhorns in check enough to stay within the number as a result.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Northwestern -2.5

Most are quick to dismiss Northwestern's 8-5 season last year.  Pat Fitzgerald was let go shortly before the season and defensive coordinator David Braun took over.  They were coming off a 1-11 season to boot and had just 11 starters back last year.

Players bought into Braun and delivered their first 8-win season since 2018.  They upset Minnesota, Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois and Utah.  They continue to get no respect as 2.5-point home favorites over Miami Ohio from the MAC in the opener.

This despite the fact that Northwestern returns 15 starters from that 8-5 team.  They return eight starters on defense from a unit that allowed 22.5 points per game, and they should be just as good if not better defensively this season.

The offense returns seven starters and didn't get the best play from starting QB Ben Bryant, so losing him isn't that big of a loss.  They have plenty of capable replacements, including Vanderbilt transfer Mike Wright, who had a 21-11 TD/INT ratio and 902 rushing yards (5.2/carry) in his three seasons as a Commodore.

Miami Ohio is the team getting credit for winning the MAC last year with a school-record 11 wins.  This despite outgaining MAC opponents by just 10 yards per game with an 8-1 record. They were simply fortunate in close games, and a big reason why was Groza Award winner Graham Nicholson.  But their star kicker left for Alabama in the transfer portal, and not having him is a bigger loss than is being factored in to this team's projections.

Miami returns just 12 starters overall.  They lose their leading rusher and leading receiver, and they lose six of their top 10 tacklers on defense.  They lost 38-3 to the Miami Hurricanes in their opener last year, and that was just a 7-6 Miami team.  This is a big step up in class for the Redhawks having to face a team from the Big Ten in their opener again.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* Clemson/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Clemson +14

The Clemson Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the country heading into 2024.  The Tigers went 9-4 last season and failed to win 10 games for the first time since 2010, which was Dabo Swinney's 2nd year here.

In Clemson's four losses last year, they held a 94-60 edge in first downs over their opponents and easily could have won all four.  They haven't been this big of an underdog for a very long time, which just goes to show how underrated they are heading into the season.

Swinney has shunned the transfer portal and recruited within, therefore the team chemistry should be as good as any team in the country.  The Tigers have 14 starters back including nine on offense, and this should be one of the most improved offenses in the country.  Former top recruit Cade Klubnik came into his own at the end of last season and is primed for a monster junior season.  He returns his top receiver, top RB and four starters along the offensive line.

Clemson always has an elite defense and that won't change this season.  They allowed 21.1 points per game and 288 yards per game last season.  They have five starters back, but the six new starters all saw significant time last year, and there won't be a drop off in production.  Seven of the 11 starters were all ranked at the Top 15 at their position coming out of high school.

Georgia is the new king of college football.  But with the hype comes expectations that are hard to live up to.  That was evident last year when the Bulldogs went 13-1 SU but just 5-8-1 ATS.  You are consistently paying a premium to back the No. 1 ranked team in the country.

Georgia has three players that are facing suspension for the opener including their top two running backs.  Leading returning tackler LB Smael Mondon is also facing a possible suspension.  They lost three of their top four receivers and their top two rushers from last year already.  If Mondon doesn't go, they will be without five of their top seven tacklers from last year as well.

The talent discrepancy here isn't big enough to warrant Georgia being favored by two touchdowns on a neutral field over a fellow national title contender in Clemson.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* CFB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma -42

For starters, Week 1 favorites of -37 or more who are playing another FBS team are 16-0-1 ATS over the last handful of seasons.  These big spreads scare off bettors, and I'm usually taking the points with spreads this high, but not in this game.

Oklahoma makes the move to the SEC and is loaded this season.  The Sooners want to make a statement in their first game as a member of the SEC to prove they belong.  They will make that statement against arguably the worst team in all of college football in Temple.

The Sooners return 15 starters this season.  They are loaded defensively eight starters and nine of their top 10 tacklers back from a unit that allowed just 23.5 points per game this season.  It took a few years for head coach Brent Venables, the legendary DC at Clemson, to get his players in place.  But now this is going to be one of the top defenses in the country led by amazing LB's and DB's.  Temple may not score a single points.

Dillon Gabriel has taken the bag at Oregon and is the Heisman Trophy favorite.  However, Oklahoma had star QB Jackson Arnold waiting in the wings.  He flashed his talents in the bowl game and this team believes in him.  Seven starters return on offense and while they will have a hard time matching last year's 41.7 points per game and 507 yards per game, this will still be one of the top offenses in the country.  They return four of their top five receivers and their leading rusher, plus add in WR Deion Burks from Purdue.

Oklahoma beat Arkansas State 73-0 to open last season, and that was a quality Red Wolves team from the Sun Belt.  The Sooners beat Tulsa 66-17 on the road last year in their 3rd game of the season, and the Golden Hurricane are a fellow AAC team that was much better than Temple is going to be this year.

Temple went 3-9 last season with wins over Akron, Norfolk State and Navy.  They lost by 29 to Rutgers and by 34 to Miami in the non-conference.  After having 15 starters back last season, 3rd-year head coach Stan Drayton has just 10 starters back this season and will be even worse.

The big loss is QB EJ Warner, who was the only player keeping this team alive last year.  He threw for 3,076 yards with a 23-to-12 TD/INT ratio and has transferred to Rice to take over the starting job there.  They lose their top two receivers, their leading rushers and three starters along the offensive line including a 1st-team All-AAC selection.

Temple allowed 35.7 points per game and 442 yards per game last season.  The Owls lose nine of their top 10 tacklers from last year and will be even worse on defense.  Oklahoma can name its number on this defense, and I expect the Sooners to top 50 points in this one which is all it's going to take to cover -42.  Bet Oklahoma Friday.

20* FSU/Georgia Tech CFB Season Opener on Georgia Tech +10.5

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are a big sleeper in the ACC this season.  They went 7-6 last season despite being picked to finish near the bottom of the conference.  They return 13 starters from that team, including one of the most underrated offenses in the country.

QB Haynes King completed 61.6% of his passes for 2,842 yards with a 27-to-16 TD/INT ratio last year, while also rushing for 737 yards and 10 scores.  He is one of the best QB's in the country that nobody is talking about.  He led the Yellow Jackets to a 30-17 win over UCF in the bowl game.  More impressive yet, GT nearly upset Georgia in a 31-23 loss as 24-point dogs in the regular season finale.

King is among eight returning starters on offense.  Each of his top two receivers are back as is leading rusher Jamal Haynes, who rushed for 1,059 yards while averaging 6.1 per carry last year.  Four starters return along the offensive line including a pair of All-ACC performers in C Weston Franklin and RT Jordan Williams.

The defense is the concern after allowing 29.5 points per game and bringing back just five starters.  But three of the top four tacklers return, the defensive line looks solid, and they are projected to have nine junior and senior starters.  I think this unit will be better than expected.

The Florida State Seminoles showed their vulnerabilities last year after losing starting QB Jordan Travis to injury.  They only beat Florida 24-15, beat Louisville 16-6 and lost 63-3 to Georgia in their final three games without him.  DJ Uiagalelei will be playing on his 3rd team in 3 years and is a big step down from Travis.

Only five starters return on offense as the Seminoles lose their top three receivers from last year as well as leading rusher Trey Benson.  It's going to take a few games for Uiagalelei to get acclimated to Mike Norvell's offense and all these new playmakers.

Florida State only returns five starters from what was a loaded defense last year.  They lost five starters to the NFL draft including a first, two seconds and a 3rd-round pick.  It's a tall task for this inexperienced defense to try and have to defend a dual-threat QB like King in their first game of the season.  

The Yellow Jackets are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Seminoles, and six of the last seven meetings were decided by 6 points or fewer.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* Washington/Michigan CFP Championship No-Brainer on Washington +5

The Washington Huskies have been doubted all season.  They got off to a blistering start, but then had a lull in their schedule where they were lacking motivation against inferior teams.  But they handled their business and won the games as they needed to.  They simply played to the level of their competition at times.

But when they stepped up in class, they also exceeded expectations.  They beat Oregon at home, upset Oregon State on the road and upset Oregon as double-digit underdogs in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  They outgained Oregon 483 to 353 for the game, or by 130 total yards.  They honestly should have won by more.

The Huskies had some key players banged up and playing through injury at the end of the season.  QB Michael Penix Jr. had a broken rib late in the year, RB Dillon Johnson was playing through injury and WR Jalen McMillan was also playing through injury.  The month break allowed these players to get healthy as well as several other players healthy on defense.  Now the Huskies should be as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.

It paid off in a 37-31 win over Texas in the Sugar Bowl.  That final score doesn't really show how dominant the Huskies really were over the Longhorns.  They just managed to make it interesting late.  The Huskies racked up 532 total yards in the win.  Washington's offensive line, which won the Joe Moore Award for the nation's top offensive line, was the key to victory.  They held a previously dominant Texas defensive line in check and gave Michael Penix Jr. plenty of time to find his 3 NFL receivers and others.  Penix Jr. finished 29-of-38 for 430 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.  He is the best QB in the country and now he is showing it on the national stage.  And I trust this Washington offensive line to keep him clean against Michigan's fearsome front.

I know RB Dillon Johnson got hurt at the end of that game against Texas and will try to play through the pain, which isn't ideal.  However, Washington knows its best game plan is to throw the ball as many times as possible against this Michigan defense.  Michigan's defense is similar to Texas in that they are tough to run on, but they haven't been tested through the air much at all this season thanks to a very easy schedule of opposing offenses.  The best QB's they faced were McCord of Ohio State, Tagovailoa of Maryland, Allar of Penn State and Milroe of Alabama.  

None of those four QB's can sling it like Penix Jr. can with precision accuracy.  And Michigan hasn't faced a trio of receivers like they will be up against in this one.  I like the fact that Michigan only gets one week to prepare for Washington's high-octane offense.  That's not enough time.  I trust Kalen DeBoer over Jim Harbaugh to make the right adjustments in this short amount of time.

Washington's defense is the most underrated unit of the entire college football playoff.  They are a bend but don't break bunch.  They do give up yards, but they are one of the best red zone defenses in the country.  They will stack the box to stop the run and try and make JJ McCarthy try and beat them through the air.  Washington's cornerbacks are certainly a strength with their tremendous ball skills, and McCarthy won't be able to beat them often.

Michigan was lucky to beat Alabama needing a late TD to force OT and then winning in OT.  Well, Texas beat Alabama by 10 on the road, and Washington just dominated Texas.  Also, the Wolverines benefited from playing on a slick grass field in the Rose Bowl to help counter Alabama's speed.  They won't have that same luxury against Washington with this game being played inside the dome at NRG Stadium in Houston.  Washington's speed on the fast track will be a huge advantage for them.  This is an ACC officiating crew, and they called pass interference at a higher rate than any other officiating crew in the country.  That will certainly benefit Washington's pass-happy attack.

Washington is 21-0 SU in its last 21 games overall including 10-0 vs AP Top 10 teams during this span.  DeBoer is 8-1 ATS as a head coach as an underdog, including 7 outright victories of those nine.  DeBoer is 11-1 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  Bet Washington in the CFP Championship Game Monday.

25* CFB Playoff GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +4

The Washington Huskies have been doubted all season.  They got off to a blistering start, but then had a lull in their schedule where they were lacking motivation against inferior teams.  But they handled their business and won the games as they needed to.  They simply played to the level of their competition at times.

But when they stepped up in class, they also exceeded expectations.  They beat Oregon at home, upset Oregon State on the road and upset Oregon as double-digit underdogs in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  There was nothing fluky about that win, either.  They outgained Oregon 483 to 353 for the game, or by 130 total yards.  They honestly should have won by more.

The Huskies had some key players banged up and playing through injury at the end of the season.  QB Michael Penix Jr. had a broken rib late in the year, RB Dillon Johnson was playing through injury and WR Jalen McMillan was also playing through injury.  This month break with their last game on December 1st will do wonders for these three.  Now the Huskies should be as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season.

Texas lost star RB Jonathan Brooks late in the season.  He has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 TD while averaging 6.1 per carry.  Backups CJ Baxter (4.6/carry) isn't nearly as explosive.  Texas also lost leading WR Xavier Worthy in the Big 12 Championship Game to injury.  He was seen limping and on crutches after the game.  While he is expected to play, he has admitted he won't be anywhere near 100%.  That's a big blow considering Worthy has 73 receptions for 969 yards and 5 TD this season.

Texas isn't going to have the firepower on offense to keep up with Washington.  And I like the matchup for this Washington offense up against this Texas defense.  The strength of the Longhorns is their run D, but you can throw on them.  That fits perfectly for what head coach Kalen DeBoer wants to do, which is throw it all over the yard.  The Huskies average 344 passing yards per game and 9.2 per attempt.  Texas allowed 305 passing yards to Baylor, 378 to Houston, 327 to Kansas State, 302 to TCU and 323 to Iowa State in Big 12 play.

Texas does have the better defense overall, but Washington's defense is better than it gets credit for.  The Huskies do allow you to move the ball between the 20's, but they were one of the best red zone D's in the country, which is why they only allow 23.6 points per game.  I think they can more than handle their own defensively, and this will be a step up in class for Texas' offense after facing an easy schedule of opposing defenses in the Big 12.

Washington beat Texas 27-20 last year in the bowl game.  There was nothing fluky about is as the Huskies racked up 445 total yards on the Longhorns.  It will be more of the same this year, except the difference is the Huskies are better than they were a year ago in their bowl game.  They will be able to play with a chip on their shoulder again listed as the underdog.  I fully expect the Huskies to win this game outright, but we will take the points for some insurance.  

Steve Sarkisian is 0-8 ATS vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game as the coach of Texas.  Kalen DeBoer is 10-1 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  I'll take DeBoer over Sarkisian every time with time to prepare.  Bet Washington in the Sugar Bowl Monday.

15* Alabama/Michigan Rose Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Alabama +2

The wrong team is favored in the Rose Bowl.  Alabama will be the best team that Michigan has faced all season and I don't expect it to go well for them.  It will go similarly to how it did against TCU last year.  Michigan was upset by TCU, and TCU went on to lose by 56 to Georgia.  The SEC is simply king.

We saw that play out Saturday with Ole Miss upsetting Penn State 38-25 and Georgia blasting Florida State 63-3.  Missouri also upset Ohio State 14-3 the day prior.  Alabama beat both Ole Miss and Georgia to get here.

Michigan was able to bully teams in the Big Ten.  The Big Ten was a terrible offensive league this season.  Michigan won't be able to bully Alabama at the line is scrimmage.  Plus, Michigan hasn't faced the kind of athletes on offense that they will have to deal with in this one.  

QB Jalen Milroe is a physical specimen that can beat you with his arms and his legs.  Michigan won't be prepared because they haven't seen anything like him.  He completed 65.5% of his passes for 2,718 yards with a 23-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 468 yards and 12 scores on the ground.  I will take Milroe over Michigan's JJ McCarthy all day.  McCarthy hasn't been asked to do much this season because Michigan bullies everyone with their ground game, and he won't be prepared to need to do more in this one.

I like the fact that Alabama is the underdog in this one so Nick Saban can use that as a motivating tool that nobody believes in this team still, and they will be out to prove something.  The Crimson Tide upset Georgia in the SEC Championship Game to improve to 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  

Alabama is 7-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play this season.  Saban is 8-1 ATS vs. Big Ten opponents as the coach of Alabama.  Harbaugh is 4-12 ATS when playing with two or more weeks' rest as the coach of Michigan.  Bet Alabama in the Rose Bowl Monday.

20* Iowa/Tennessee Citrus Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 35

The Big Ten West was dreadful this season.  Iowa managed to win it with one of the worst offenses in college football history.  However, a lot of that had to do with them having to play some great defenses and very poor offenses.  Iowa isn't used to playing the type of team they will be up against in the Citrus Bowl.

Tennessee runs an up-tempo offense that is conducive to a lot of points being scored by both teams.  The Volunteers rank 3rd in the country in seconds per play on offense.  They are going to force Iowa into more of a track meet than they're used to, especially if the Volunteers jump out ahead like they are supposed to as the favorite.

11 of Tennessee's 12 games have seen 43 or more combined points.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 35-point total.  Starting QB Joe Milton has opted out of this bowl game, but that's the only real significant loss on offense for the Volunteers.  Many Tennessee fans wanted Nico Iamaleava to start over Milton this season anyway, and now he will get his shot in this bowl game.  Iowa won't know what to do to prepare for with him without game film on him.  Iamaleava is the top-ranked QB recruit in program history, and Josh Heupel and offensive coordinator Joey Halzle cannot wait to unleash him.

The biggest losses for the Volunteers as far as opt-outs are concerned are on defense.  Starting DE Tyler Baron, starting S Wesley Walker, starting CB Doneiko Slaughter, and starting slot CB Tamarion McDonald have all hit the transfer portal.  They have six players in the secondary that have hit the portal.  They will be without at least four starters and possibly more on defense.  Iowa will be able to move the football much easier than normal against this defense, which will be a big step down in class for them compared to what they are used to facing in the Big Ten.

Iowa losing CB/PR Cooper DeJean to injury late in the season is a big blow.  He was a unanimous 1st-team All-American.  Without having his leadership out there it's going to be much tougher sledding for this Iowa defense up against arguably the most high-powered offense they have seen all season.  Iowa's schedule of opposing offenses this season is an absolute joke playing in the Big Ten West, plus facing Western Michigan, Iowa State and Utah State in the non-conference.

Iowa's offense tends to bust out in bowl games, too.  The Hawkeyes have scored at least 20 points in 18 consecutive bowl games.  If they get to 20 in this one, it's going OVER the total.  Iowa and their opponents have combined for at least 35 points in 17 of their last 19 bowl games.  That makes for a 17-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 35-point total.  Bet the OVER in the Citrus Bowl Monday.

25* College Football Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Wyoming ML -165

Legendary head coach Craig Bohl has announced he will retire after the Arizona Bowl.  These players desperately want to get him a win in his final game, and no team will be more motivated than the Cowboys this bowl season.  I like putting my money on teams that I know will be motivated.

The Cowboys only had one player hit the transfer portal in CB Kolbey Taylor.  RT Caden Barnett won't play in the bowl due to injury, but backup Jack Walsh started for him in the final two games this season.  Bohl has said that everyone else appears to be healthy and playing in this bowl game.

Toledo will be without starting QB Dequan Finn and starting LG Vinny Scuiry.  CB Quinyon Mitchell may decide to opt out as well.  The loss of Finn is massive.  He completes 63.4% of his passes for 2,657 yards with a 22-to-9 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He has also rushed for 563 yards and seven TD, and backup QB Tucker Gleason just doesn't threat opponents with his legs like Finn does.

Just this week, Toledo star RB Penny Boone announced he would be hitting the transfer portal, which means he's likely opting out of this bowl game.  Boone has rushed for 1,400 yards and 15 TD while averaging 7.2 per carry.  He and Finn account for basically all of their production on the ground, combining for nearly 2,000 rushing yards and 22 TD.

Toledo lost as a 6.5-point favorite in the MAC Championship Game to Miami Ohio by a final of 23-14.  The Rockets do not want to be here.  Wyoming plays a very similar style to Miami Ohio.  They don't wow you offensively, but they are elite defensively and make everything difficult for their opponents.  Now they get to go up against a Toledo offense without their starting QB & RB.

Wyoming ended the season by blasting Hawaii 42-9 at home as 13-point favorites and crushing Nevada 42-6 on the road as 10.5-point favorites.  They do want to be here and have earned their way.  They also beat Texas Tech, Appalachian State and Fresno State earlier this season while giving Texas all they wanted for three quarters on the road.  They are battle-tested to say the least.  Wyoming played the 73rd-toughest schedule this season while Toledo played the 130th in the weak MAC.

Jason Candle is 0-7 ATS when playing with two or more weeks' rest as the coach of Toledo.  Bohl is 17-6 ATS following two or more consecutive wins as the coach of Wyoming.  I'm confident the Cowboys are going to get the win for Bohl, but I don't want to lay -3.5 in what is expected to be a low-scoring game.  So I'll lay the extra juice on the Money Line instead.  Bet Wyoming on the Money Line in the Arizona Bowl Saturday.

20* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Memphis/Iowa State OVER 57

The Memphis Tigers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-2 OVER in all games this season.  We have seen 61 or more combined points in eight of Memphis' last nine games overall.  This total of 57 is too low for a game involving the Tigers.

Memphis is putting up 39.7 points per game, 453.2 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  QB Seth Hanigan is expected to play and have all of his top playmakers for this contest.  Hanigan is completing 66.5% of his passes for 3,519 yards with a 28-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  Blake Watson has rushed for 1,045 yards and 14 TD on 5.9 per carry.  Roc Taylor (61 receptions, 981 yards, 4 TD) and Dameer Blankumsee (51, 825, 6 TD) are his top two target.  They will only be without RT Makylan Pounders and RG Davion Carter, but backups Mitchell Gildehaus and Terrance McClain have experience taking their place.

Memphis allows 29.0 points per game, 424.6 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Tigers will be without starting CB Julian Barnett, starting S Cameron Smith and backup BUCK Andres Fox.  Smith is the fourth-leading tackler and a big blow in the secondary for an already suspect Memphis defense.

Iowa State scored 42 points on Kansas State and 45 points on BYU in two of its final three games.  They are going to score at will on this Memphis defense.  The Cyclones will have all of their starters available offensively.  On defense, they will be without CB TJ Tampa, who is an NFL corner.  They could also be without starting S Malik Verdon, leaving their secondary short-handed against Memphis' pass-happy attack.  The Cyclones allowed 281-plus passing yards in three of their final four games this season.

I expect Iowa State to score 35-plus in this one and Memphis to get to at least 28.  Memphis is 7-0 OVER following a conference game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NC State/K-State Pop-Tarts Bowl ANNIHILATOR on NC State +2.5

The NC State Wolfpack are highly motivated to get their 10th win of the season.  They quietly played some of the best football int he country down the stretch, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games with upset wins over Clemson, Miami, UNC and Virginia Tech.  They also smoked Wake Forest by 20 in what looked to be a clear letdown spot.  Now they are once again underdogs to Kansas State when they should be favored in this game when you factor in all that the Wildcats will be missing.

Kansas State won the Big 12 last year and got a big bowl game as a result against Alabama.  This is actually a letdown for them to be playing n the Pop-Tarts Bowl.  The Wildcats have nine players in the transfer portal including QB Will Howard, so that leaves Avery Johnson as the expected starter at QB.  They also had starting S Kobe Savage and starting CB Will Lee hit the transfer portal, plus starting WR Phillip Brooks and starting TE Ben Sinnott transfer out, which are their two biggest weapons on offense.  DT Uso Deumalo was on crutches in the finale, and LB Jake Clifton was lost for the season after Week 11 after the Wildcats were already without starting MLB Daniel Green and freshman backup Asa Newsom.  Offensive coordinator Collin Klein accepted the same job at Texas A&M as well.

NC State should have all hands on deck for this game in terms of starters outside of NT CJ Clark.  That just goes to show you how 'all in' the Wolfpack are to get their 10th win of the season.  I'll gladly side with the more motivated team with a all of their best players available against the team that lacks motivation with a ton of key opt-outs and transfers down to a backup QB.  Bet NC State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl Thursday.

20* Rutgers/Miami Pinstripe Bowl No-Brainer on Rutgers ML +100

Rutgers actually qualified for a bowl not due to academics with 6 wins for the first time since 2014.  It's safe to say the Scarlet Knights want to be here, and head coach Greg Schiano is 5-1-1 ATS in bowl games in his head coaching career.

Rutgers will have a huge home-field advantage in this one with the short trip to The Bronx for fans to come watch this team play.  It's only an hour drive from campus.  They are a cold weather team used to the elements going up against a warm weather team in Miami that wants nothing to do with having to play in the cold weather and this bowl game up in the Northeast.

While Rutgers only had one key player opt out of this game in CB Max Melton, the losses are large for Miami with transfers and opt-outs.  They will be down to third-string QB Jacurri Brown with starting QB Tyler Van Dyke transferring to Wisconsin and backup QB Emory Williams injured.  The Hurricanes will also be without fellow starters in WR Colbie Young, LB Corey Flagg, EDGE Jahfari Harvey, CB Daryl Porter Jr., S Kamren Kinches, S Jamal Williams, DT Leonard Taylor, C Matt Lee and LG Javion Cohen.  The Hurricanes are likely to be without four starters on offense and five or six on defense.

Schiano is 38-20 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  Mario Cristobal is 4-12 ATS after the first month of the season as the coach of Miami.  We are getting the better head coach and the team that wants to be here more at a PK, which is an absolute steal.  Bet Rutgers on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Texas A&M/Oklahoma State Texas Bowl BAILOUT on Oklahoma State ML -130

The Texas A&M Aggies have been absolutely gutted in the transfer portal and in the coaching staff.  Jimbo Fisher was fired and offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino left for the same job at Arkansas.  Elijah Robinson will serve as the interim for the bowl game, but he has his forced on Syracuse where he will be their defensive coordinator.  The rest of the staff is in flux as well.

Third-string QB Jaylen Henderson will get the start with QB Max Johnson off to North Carolina.  Other starters missing are WR Evan Steward, RT Chase Bisontis, EDGE Fadil Diggs, S Bryce Anderson, DL Walter Nolen, CB Tyreek Chappell, CB Deuce Harmon, WR Ainias Smith, LB Edgerrin Cooper, DT McKinnley Jackson and RG Layden Robinson.  That's 12 starters they are expected to be without, plus several other backups in the transfer portal and possibly starting C Bryce Foster and WR Moose Muhammad.

Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy is one of the best bowl head coaches in the country.  His 11 bowl wins rank him among the Top 10 all-time in college football.  Oklahoma State clearly wants to be here as the only potential starter missing would be LB Collin Oliver, but I'm guessing he plays.  Star RB Ollie Gordon I (1,614 yards, 20 TD, 6.3/carry) is going to play, which is all you need to know about how much the Cowboys want to be here.

I'll gladly side with the more motivated team in the Cowboys up against the team that wants nothing to do with this bowl game in the Aggies.  Bet Oklahoma State on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* UNC/West Virginia Mayo Bowl No-Brainer on West Virginia -6.5

The UNC Tar Heels are going to be without a ton of starters for this game, so this is more of a fade of them than anything.  They will be without five players who will be entering the NFL Draft in QB Drake Maye, LB Cedric Gray, C Corey Gaynor, WR Tez Walker and DL Myles Murphy.  They are missing five other starters due to injury in TE John Copenhaver, WR Byson Nesbit, WR Kobe Paysour, CB Alijah Huzzie and S Will Hardy.  Seven other backups hit the transfer portal.

West Virginia will have its full compliment of starters for this one with the exception of C Zach Frazier, who is one of the top centers in the 2024 NFL Draft.  He is only missing this game due to surgery.  Head coach Neal Brown and his players will be 'all in' to try and get a win here when you look at all the players expected to play.

West Virginia is a run-heavy team that averages 236 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry this season.  They will be up against a UNC defense that allows 178 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.  And now this defense won't have several key players at LB, on the defensive line and in the secondary.  But the losses are bigger for UNC's offense, which will be without its QB and all of its top weapons.

The bottom line is WVU cares about this bowl game while UNC does not, and the matchup favors them as well as they will be winning that battle at the line is scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Getting the Mountaineers at anything less than a TD favorite here is a discount.  Bet West Virginia in the Duke's Mayo Bowl Wednesday.

20* Utah/Northwestern Las Vegas Bowl No-Brainer on Northwestern +7

Teams that won 3 or fewer games the prior season and qualified for a bowl the next season are 34-12-2 ATS over the past eight bowl seasons.  Teams that improved by 6-plus wins (or by 50%-plus) from the prior regular season are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 bowl games as underdogs after going 4-1 ATS last season.  These systems basically show that these teams are happy to be here and give their best effort, and that will be the case for Northwestern.

The Northwestern Wildcats were one of the best stories in all of college football this season.  Interim head coach David Braun had to take over for Pat Fitzgerald just before the season.  After a slow start to the season, the Wildcats went 4-1 SU in their final five games with their only loss coming 10-7 to Big Ten West champion Iowa.  The Wildcats upset Wisconsin as 12-point road dogs, upset Maryland as 14.5-point home dogs and upset Illinois as 6.5-point road dogs.  They went 7-0 ATS in their final seven games.  The Wildcats clearly want to be here.

The Utah Utes had Pac-12 title expectations coming into the year.  But they never got their starting QB back from injury, and their offense struggled all season to keep up with what was a very good Utah defense.  The Utes limped to the finish line, going 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in their final three games.  They lost by 24 at Arizona and then only beat Colorado by 6 as 21-point home favorites despite the Buffaloes playing without star QB Shedeur Sanders.  Utah does not want to be here after playing in the Rose Bowl the last two seasons.

The Utes had several players hit the transfer portal, plus they lost two important defensive starters earlier this season to injury in LB Lander Barton and EDGE Logan Fano.  Leading WR Devaughn Vele (43 receptions, 593 yards, 3 TD) opted out as well.  Meanwhile, Northwestern only had one starter hit the transfer portal in LG Josh Priebe.  They will have all hands on deck for this one, further proof that they want to be here and finish the season the on a 4-game winning streak with yet another upset victory.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* Georgia State/Utah State Potato Bowl No-Brainer on Utah State ML +110

Teams that finished .500 by winning their final regular season game to qualify for a bowl are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 tries.  This trend goes to show that teams that win their final regular season game to get bowl eligible are clearly motivated to be there and thus go out and perform well.  It think that will be the case for Utah State here.

In fact, Utah State went 3-1 SU in its final four games with its only loss coming to Boise State, which was the Mountain West champion.  The Aggies boast some impressive numbers for a team that is just 6-6 on the season.  They average 446.3 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play while allowing 417.6 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 29 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play on the season.

Georgia State also finished 6-6 but clearly cannot be too happy to be here.  The Panthers opened 6-1 this season and looked to be a real contender to win the Sun Belt.  Instead, they have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS since.  They lost by 17 to Georgia Southern, by 28 to James Madison, by 28 to Appalachian State and by 42 to LSU.  They weren't even competitive down the stretch, and head coach Shawn Elliott may have lost this team.  The Panthers are getting outgained by 58 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play on the season.

Several of Georgia State's best players hit the transfer portal.  That includes leading rusher Marcus Carroll (1,350 yards, 13 TD) and leading receiver Robert Lewis (70 receptions, 877 yards, 7 TD).  Carroll is headed to Missouri while Lewis is headed to Auburn, so clearly those two programs thought both of these players were good enough to play in the SEC.  Starting RT Montavious Cunningham is headed to Virginia Tech and starting CB Bryquice Brown is headed to Boston College.  You could argue that Georgia State will be without its four best players now.

Utah State doesn't have any important players in the transfer portal other than S Devin Dye.  They should have basically all hands on deck here.  I also like the angle that QB Levi Williams will be playing in his final collegiate game before joining the military.  Williams actually played in this same bowl game last year leading Wyoming to a 52-38 win over Kent State.  He rushed for 200 yards and 4 TD while also throwing for another score in the win.  

Williams was named MWC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance against New Mexico in the regular season finale.  Hew went 16-of-27 passing for 198 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 169 yards and three scores to show off his dual-threat ability.  There is really no drop off from their other two QB's to Williams as the Aggies have arguably the best depth of any team in the country at QB.

This will also be basically a home game for the Aggies being played in Boise, Idaho, a stadium they are very familiar with getting to play Boise State every year.  It's only a 4 hour drive for their fans and they will have a big home-field advantage as a result.  Bet Utah State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Arkansas State/Northern Illinois Camellia Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State PK

Fading the MAC is something you will see over and over again from my picks this bowl season.  The MAC was way down this year, even more than normal, and they historically struggle in bowl season.  The Sun Belt is notoriously undervalued, and that looks to be the case again this season as 12 of the 14 Sun Belt teams qualified for a bowl game.  They play a much tougher schedule than these MAC teams and are more battle-tested as a result.

Arkansas State went 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games this season despite not being more than a 1-point favorite in any of the five games.  They crushed Texas State 77-31 to get bowl eligible.  They also took South Alabama to the wire in a 7-point road loss as a 15-point underdog.  Butch Jones now has the Red Wolves going to a bowl game for the first time since 2019 in his third season on the job.  This is a program on the rise.

The Red Wolves have all starters expected to play in this game other than LB Javante Mackey.  It's safe to say they are happy to be here and looking forward to this opportunity.  I expect fans to make the trip from Jonesboro to Montgomery, AL for this Camellia Bowl and support this team.

Northern Illinois went 3-2 SU but 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The three wins weren't impressive at all as all three came against three of the worst teams in all of college football in Eastern Michigan (130th), Western Michigan (127th) and Kent State (188th).  Those rankings are from Jeff Sagarin and combine FBS and FCS teams.  While Northern Illinois faced the 128th-ranked schedule in the country, Arkansas State faced the 113th.

Arkansas State QB Jaylen Raynor is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He averaged 9.0 yards per attempt this season with a 15-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 324 yards and five scores on the ground.  I like this Arkansas State offense over Northern Illinois, which likely only has one proven healthy receiver for this game.  It's a lackluster NIU offense that averages just 25.3 points per game despite facing such a soft schedule.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

15* Syracuse/South Florida Boca Raton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on South Florida +3

Teams that won 3 or fewer games the prior season and qualified for a bowl the next season are 34-12-2 ATS over the past eight bowl seasons.  Teams that finished .500 by winning their final regular season game to qualify for a bowl are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 tries.  These systems basically show that these teams are happy to be here and give their best effort, and that will be the case for South Florida.

South Florida finished 6-6 after beating Charlotte 48-14 in their regular season finale.  The Bulls will be going to their first bowl game since 2018, so they are clearly happy to be here.  They didn't have any significant opt-opts and will have basically all hands on deck for this one.

Syracuse limped to the finish going 2-6 in its final six games with the two wins coming against non-bowl teams in Wake Forest and Pittsburgh.  Head coach Dino Babers was fired, and the Orange had a few players hit the transfer portla.  I think they have very questionable motivation heading into this one as a result and are a vulnerable favorite.

Syracuse is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game.  The Bulls put up 30.8 points per game and 455.3 yards per game this season and will have a big advantage on offnese in this matchup.  They rush for 185 yards per game and throw for 271 yards per game.  Syracuse is actually getting outgained by 22.6 yards per game on the season.  Bet South Florida Thursday.

20* WKU/Old Dominion Famous Toastery Bowl No-Brainer on Old Dominion -2.5

Old Dominion fought hard to make a bowl game and is happy to be here.  The Monarchs needed to win their final two games of the season just to get bowl eligible and did so in dramatic fashion.  They upset Georgia Southern 20-17 as 5-point road dogs and then pulled off the 25-24 comeback win over Georgia State in the final seconds at home in the regular season finale.

Now Old Dominion fits into several bowl systems that have been very profitable.  Teams that won 3 or fewer games the prior season and qualified for a bowl the next season are 34-12-2 ATS over the past eight bowl seasons.  Teams that finished .500 by winning their final regular season game to qualify for a bowl are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 tries.  These systems basically show that these teams are happy to be here and give their best effort, and that will be the case for Old Dominion.

Western Kentucky is used to competing for conference championships but they were denied by Liberty and New Mexico State this season.  This despite Conference USA being one of the worst conferences in the country.  The Hilltoppers just didn't have it, especially defensively where they allowed 28.2 points per game and 427 yards per game this season.  Their offense was also down a couple notches from the past fewer years.

Now this WKU offense is going to be down a couple more notches.  They had three starting offensive linemen hit the transfer portal.  Reports have surfaced that starting QB Austin Reed could miss the bowl, and backup QB Caden Veltkamp is also in the transfer portal, meaning they could be down to a third-string QB.  NFL prospect WR Malachi Corley is also worth watch.  I like Old Dominion whether or not Reed and Corley play, and this line will move even more of they don't.

The Hilltoppers' already suspect defense will be without starting CB Upton Stout, starting LB Desmyn Baker, starting S Talique Allen and CB TJ Stringer.  So they will be without three starters in the secondary, making life easy on Old Dominion their passing game.  The Monarchs will only be missing three starters in WR Javon Harvey, S Terry Jones and LB Jason Henderson.  This will be just their 2nd bowl game since 2017, so they are clearly happy to be here with so few opt-outs.

The Sun Belt is notoriously undervalued, and that looks to be the case again this season as 12 of the 14 Sun Belt teams qualified for a bowl game.  They play a much tougher schedule than these C-USA teams did and are more battle-tested as a result.  The Monarchs played the 81st-toughest schedule while the Hilltoppers played the 123rd.

Western Kentucky is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall with its only cover coming against one of the worst teams in all of college football in Florida International by 13 as 11.5-point favorites.  The Hilltoppers are 1-7 ATS after committing one or fewer turnovers this season.  The Hilltoppers just don't stand much of a chance without three starting offensive linemen and four starters on defense and possibly more.  Bet Old Dominion Monday.

15* Georgia Southern/Ohio 2023 Bowl Opener on Georgia Southern -3

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Southern Eagles after going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their final four games to close out the season.  They played a brutal schedule down the stretch with three of their final four games on the road.  They had little to play for after clinching bowl eligibility but also being eliminated from conference title contention simultaneously.

Now I think we get a fully focused effort from the Eagles in this bowl game.  They lost to Buffalo by 2 in their bowl game last season to fall to 6-7 and a losing record.  They don't want that to be their fate again.  The Eagles will have all hands on deck for this game with the exception of possibly RB Jalen White, who is questionable with injury.  They didn't have any opt-outs, which is unheard of in today's college football.

The transfer portal really hit Ohio hard.  The Bobcats will be without QB Kurtis Roarke (15 total TD), WR Miles Cross (47 receptions, 617 yards, 5 TD), RB Sieh Bangura (811 yards, 7 TD) and backup RB O'Shaan Allison (452 yards, 3 TD) on offense.  They also lose their best player on defense in LB Keye Thompson (94 tackles).  Ohio already lost WR Jacoby Jones earlier this season.  Backup QB CJ Harris led Ohio to a bowl victory last season, but he's out for the year, so they will be down to third-stringer Parker Navarro.  They are going to be without their top two QB's, their top two RB's and their top two WR's.  They won't be able to take advantage of what has been a suspect Georgia Southern defense.

Fading the MAC is something you will see over and over again from my picks this bowl season.  The MAC was way down this year, even more than normal, and they historically struggle in bowl season.  The Sun Belt is notoriously undervalued, and that looks to be the case again this season as 12 of the 14 Sun Belt teams qualified for a bowl game.  They play a much tougher schedule than these MAC teams and are more battle-tested as a result.

Ohio is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 road games after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers.  It's only a four hour drive from Statesboro, Georgia to Conway, SC so the Eagles should have the majority of the fans at this game.  I can't see Ohio fans turning out to support a team that is losing all of its top playmakers on offense.  Bet Georgia Southern Saturday.

20* Louisville/Florida State ACC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 49

Florida State losing star QB Jordan Travis in a meaningless game against North Alabama is one of the biggest tragedies in college football this season.  They were a legit playoff contender with him, but now they may not make it even if they beat Louisville.  I don't know if they are going to win the game, but I do know they won't be very good on offense against Louisville with backup QB Tate Rodemaker.

We got to see how they are going to play moving forward with him in a 24-15 win over Florida in an absolute defensive battle last week.  That's a Florida team with a terrible defense, too.  The Seminoles managed just 224 total yards against Florida while limiting the Gators to 232 yards.  They shortened the game running just 57 offensive snaps while Florida ran only 60.

Florida State is going to have to lean on a defense that has been one of the best in the country this season.  The Seminoles allow just 16.8 points per game, 316 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  They will be up against a Louisville team that also relies heavily on defense, allowing just 20.0 points per game, 317 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.

The Seminoles aren't going to let Rodemaker lose the game for them.  They are going to try and run the football.  Well, the Cardinals are great against the run, allowing 99 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season.  Louisville wants to throw the football, and FSU is great against the pass, allowing just 47.7% completions, 175 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt.

There is better than a 50% chance of rain at Bank of American Stadium in Charlotte, NC for this one that could also help keep this one UNDER the total.  When the stakes are this high, I usually look to back the UNDER, and this matchup definitely fits the bill.

Florida State is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or higher, and 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt.  Louisville is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games after a game where they committed three or more turnovers.  They will be much more careful with the ball this week after a fluky 38-31 loss to Kentucky in which turnovers led to easy scores as they held the Wildcats to just 293 total yards for the game.  That misleading final also has this total inflated this week.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/Texas OVER 55

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall with 48 or more combined points in all nine, and 58 or more combined points in six of those.  So this total of 55 is pretty low for a game involving the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State has really turned up its offense in Big 12 play.  The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in eight of their nine Big 12 games.  They average 33.4 points per game, 471.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  Those numbers would be even better if they even showed up against UCF after beating Oklahoma in a game they were held to just 3 points in.  But they have not been good defensively, allowing 29.7 points per game, 446.3 yards per game and 6.5 per play in Big 12 action this season.

The Texas Longhorns have scored at least 26 points in every game this season and average 35.4 points per game, 478.0 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play in Big 12 play.  Those numbers would be even better if they didn't lose QB Quinn Ewers for 2.5 games against Houston, BYU and Kansas State.

Each of the last five meetings between Oklahoma State and Texas have seen 56 or more combined points.  They have gone for 75, 56, 75, 66 and 73 combined points in the last five meetings.  As you can see, these games are sailing well OVER this 55-point total, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER.  Conditions will be perfect for a shootout too inside the dome at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +15

Oklahoma State is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall and earned its way into the Big 12 Championship.  They are playing on house money now and would love nothing more than to ruin Texas' final season in the Big 12.  They pretty much ruined it for Oklahoma by upsetting them, and now they take their shot at the Longhorns.

This turnaround started with continuity at QB with Alan Bowman and the emergence of RB Ollie Gordon, who has rushed for 1,580 yards and 20 TD while averaging 6.4 per carry this season.  Oklahoma State has really turned up its offense in Big 12 play.  The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in eight of their nine Big 12 games.  They average 33.4 points per game, 471-7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  Those numbers would be even better if they even showed up against UCF after beating Oklahoma in a game they were held to just 3 points in.  That letdown was expected.

But the Cowboys have bounced back nicely since and handled their business with a 43-30 road win as 7-point favorites at Houston with 514 total yards and a 40-34 (OT) win over BYU in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained BYU 503 to 327, or by 176 total yards.  But BYU took advantage of some early turnovers and jumped out to a 24-6 lead.  Oklahoma State could have folded, instead they fought back to take the lead with all the pressure on them of trying to win the game to get to the Big 12 title game.  They fell behind in the 1st OT, but then scored two touchdowns in a row to come up clutch and the defense held in the 2nd OT.  They have to be feeling like they can overcome anything after that comeback, which has been the story of their season.

Texas is overvalued off the blowout win over Texas Tech last week.  But nothing has come easy for the Longhorns outside of that home win plus another home win over BYU down the stretch.  In fact, five of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or less, and if not for a blocked PAT returned for a TD in the 10-point win over Iowa State, it would be five games decided by 7 points or fewer.  That includes narrows road wins over Houston by 7 and TCU by 3, two of the worst teams in the Big 12.  They have been great at home but it has been a different story on the road, and this game will be played on a neutral at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

Each of the last six meetings between Texas and Oklahoma State have been decided by 8 points or less.  In fact, Oklahoma State is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings as underdogs with three outright upsets.  Texas hasn't beaten Oklahoma State by more than 7 points in any of the last eight meetings, making for an 8-0 system backing the Cowboys pertaining to this inflated 15-point spread.

Speaking of 8-0 systems, Oklahoma State is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. excellent teams outscoring opponents by 17-plus points per game on the season and actually outscoring these teams by 4.4 points per game on average.  Mike Gundy has a way of getting his teams to play up to their level of their competition.  The Longhorns have all the pressure on them here of trying to win the Big 12 and make the four-team playoff.  I'll gladly side with the Cowboys playing with nothing to lose.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* New Mexico State/Liberty C-USA Championship No-Brainer on New Mexico State +10.5

The New Mexico State Aggies are 9-1 SU & 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at Hawaii.  They have pulled off five outright upsets as underdogs during this stretch, including a 31-10 win at Auburn as 25-point dogs.  They avoided the letdown last week and beat Jacksonville State 20-17 as 2.5-point home dogs, which was just as impressive.

Now the Aggies are once again catching too many points against Liberty.  They are a completely different team than the one that lost 33-17 at Liberty as 9-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  That was a 23-17 game at halftime and got out of hand after intermission.  Liberty controlled the ball with 38 minutes compared to 22 for New Mexico State and ran 27 more plays.  It was actually pretty close from a yards per play perspective.  Liberty averaged 6.8 yards per play in that game while New Mexico State averaged 6.8 yards per play as well.

Diego Pavia is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 61.2% of his passes with a 23-to-8 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 806 yards and 5 scores on 5.3 per carry.  Pavia gives them a chance to win every game he plays in, and he and the Aggies here are a dangerous, revenge-minded team in this game.  Liberty has all the pressure on them trying to cap off an unbeaten season and possibly a New Year's 6 Bowl.  New Mexico State is playing on house money.

I think the Aggies can make the adjustments to stop the run this time around by stacking the box.  New Mexico State's defensive line has played much better down the stretch.  They allow 127 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry on the season.  They held Auburn to 65 rushing yards on 28 attempts and Jacksonville State to 85 rushing yards on 28 attempts in their last two games.  That's really impressive when you consider Jacksonville State ranks 3rd in the country averaging 231.8 rushing yards per game and Auburn ranks 15th at 196.3 rushing yards per game.  It's safe to say the Aggies are ready to stop the run.  Bet New Mexico State Friday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa State +10

As of this writing, Kansas State is still alive for a Big 12 Championship.  But by the time this game kicks off at 8:00 EST Saturday night, the Wildcats will realize they have been eliminated.  They are tied with Oklahoma State and Oklahoma for 2nd place in the Big 12.  Oklahoma State and Oklahoma both hold tiebreakers over Kansas State.

Oklahoma hosts TCU on Friday and is a double-digit favorite.  Oklahoma State hosts BYU earlier Saturday afternoon and is a 17-point favorite.  Both of those teams aren't going to lose, which is what it would take for Kansas State to still be alive by the time this game kicks off.  I don't think we get a fully focused Kansas State team as a result, and I think they'll let Iowa State hang around.

The Cyclones are good enough to hang around, anyway.  They are 6-5 this season with four of their five losses coming by 10 points or less.  It should be four one-score losses but they had a PAT blocked and returned for 2 by Texas last week that turned a 7-point loss into a 10-point loss.  I'm still bitter about it because I had Iowa State and they should have covered.

But that loss to Texas provides us extra line value on the Cyclones this week.  They are a double-digit dog for only the 2nd time all season with the other coming at Oklahoma.  I like how this team is playing down the stretch going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last four games overall with all four wins coming by double-digits, and both losses going down to the wire to Kansas and Texas.

Kansas State was lucky to beat Kansas and their 3rd-string QB last week.  They were outgained 396 to 356 by the Jayhawks, or by 40 yards.  They gave up 234 rushing yards to Kansas and Iowa State will have success on the ground here, which will open up things for QB Rocco Becht.

The Cyclones want revenge from a 10-9 home loss to Kansas State last year.  The Wildcats got one big play and that was it.  Kansas State cannot seem to get margin on Iowa State.  In fact, the Wildcats haven't won any of their last nine meetings with the Cyclones by more than 10 points.  That makes for a 9-0 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 10-point spread.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina +7

The South Carolina Gamecocks played the toughest schedule in the entire country through their first eight games and the result was a 2-6 start.  They have finally gotten a break in the schedule and have made the most of it, winning their last three games to get within one win of bowl eligibility.  Now they'll be highly motivated to finish the job here at home against Clemson and pull off the upset to get that coveted 6th victory.

Clemson has also handled its business here down the stretch going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  But all three of those games were at home.  Now the Tigers have to hit the road where they have struggled this season.  Clemson is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games with their lone win coming at Syracuse.  They lost 28-7 to Duke, 28-20 to Miami and 24-17 at NC State in their other three road games.

South Carolina has played its best football at home.  All five of their wins have come at home as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at Williams-Brice Stadium.  Their lone loss came by 2 points to Florida.  I fully expect if they lose this game it will not be by more than one score, so there's value with the Gamecocks catching more than a touchdown.

South Carolina pulled the 31-30 upset as 14-point road dogs at Clemson last season.  Spencer Rattler threw for 360 yards in the win and will have another big game here.  Clemson is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 7 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (South Carolina) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington State +16.5

The whole world bet against Washington last week and lost with Oregon State.  Now is the time to fade Washington after such a big win over the Beavers when everyone was picking against them.  This is a flat spot for them off the Oregon State win and with Oregon on deck in the Pac-12 Championship since they already clinched.

At the very least, it's going to be tough for Washington to get margin and pull away from Washington State enough to cover this lofty 16.5-point spread.  The Huskies haven't been getting margin on anyone of late.  In fact, each of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or fewer.  That includes games against Stanford (42-33) and Arizona State (15-7), two of the worst teams in the Pac-12.

This is the National Championship Game for Washington State.  The Cougars will put everything into winning this game against their hated rivals.  They come in with a ton of confidence after blasting Colorado 56-14 on Friday night last week, so they get an extra day to rest and prepare for this one.

Getting margin on the Cougars has been very difficult for their opponents.  Despite their 5-6 record, the Cougars only have one loss by more than 14 points this season.  They gave Oregon all they wanted in a 24-38 road loss as 19.5-point road underdogs, proving they can play with anyone as Oregon is looked at as the best team in the Pac-12.  They know they can play with Washington, too.

The Cougars will never be out of this game with an offense that puts up 32.6 points per game, 6.0 yards per play and 338 passing yards per game and 8.1 per attempt.  Washington has allowed over 300 passing yards on three occasions this season and allows 260 passing yards per game.  They struggle to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  Washington State QB Cam Ward will keep his team in this game for four quarters.  He is completing 66.7% of his passes for 3,415 yards with a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for eight scores on the ground.  Bet Washington State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Old Dominion -2.5

Old Dominion has battled to get to 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They just went on the road and upset Georgia Southern 20-17 as 5-point dogs last week.  Now they are back home here with a chance to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility.

While the Monarchs will be max motivated to get this win and a bowl, Georgia State has questionable motivation at best.  The Panthers had a promising start to the season at 6-1, but they have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS since and were non-competitive in all four games.  They lost by 17 at Georgia Southern, by 28 at home to James Madison, by 28 at home to Appalachian State and by 42 at LSU.  I think these players have quit on head coach Shawn Elliott.  I don't think they show up at all here Saturday.

Old Dominion has played some of the best teams in the Sun Belt down to the wire.  They only lost 30-27 at James Madison as 20-point dogs and upset Appalachian State 28-21 as 6-point home dogs.  Appalachian State just beat James Madison last week.  They can play with anyone in this conference, and they can certainly beat a middle-of-the-pack team here in Georgia State.

Georgia State needs to be able to run the football to be successful because they are a suspect passing team.  Well, despite playing a brutal schedule, Old Dominion only allows 3.8 yards per carry this season.  They are holding opponents to 0.7 per carry below their season averages.  Georgia State has by far the worst defense in this matchup.  They allow 6.5 yards per play on the season while Old Dominion only allows 5.5 yards per play.  Georgia State is only slightly better than ODU on offense.  The Monarchs should be favored by more because they are the better team, they're at home and they're the much more motivated team.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State +6.5

The Ball State Cardinals have been grossly undervalued for weeks.  They continue to play with pride despite being eliminated from bowl contention.  They are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 7 to Toledo as 17.5-point dogs and by 3 to Bowling Green as 4.5-point dogs.  They also upset Central Michigan 24-17 as 5.5-point dogs, upset Northern Illinois 20-17 as 9-point dogs and crushed Kent State 34-3 as 10-point favorites.

Now it's revenge time for the Cardinals.  They were 5-6 last year and playing Miami Ohio with both at 5-6 and trying to get bowl eligible in the season finale.  They blew a 14-3 halftime lead and lost 18-17 to the Redhawks last year.  They have not forgotten, and they will get their revenge here with an outright victory, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

Miami Ohio is going to be flat as a pancake in this one.  They already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game against Toledo.  They could care less about winning this game.  The priority is to stay healthy and fresh for that game against Toledo next week, not to beat Ball State.

Miami Ohio has been fortunate in close games and has taken advantage of a weak schedule.  They have played the 129th-ranked schedule in the country while Ball State has played the 108th.  Their offense makes it hard for them to get margin.  They average 345 yards per game against teams that average allowing 379 yards per game, being held to 34 yards per game less than their season average.  Ball State has a very good defense that allows 326 yards per game and 5.3 per play and will hold Miami Ohio in check again.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Ball State) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent off two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Ball State) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Ball State Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Texas Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +13.5

Texas has all the pressure on them right now.  They are trying to win out to make the college football playoff.  They haven't contender for a national championship for a long time, so there is a ton of pressure on them right now.  They are handling it will so far, but they have also been very fortunate in close games here of late.

Indeed, the Longhorns have seen five of their last six games decided by 10 points or fewer.  The lone exception was their win over BYU, which is probably the worst team in the Big 12.  They only beat Houston by 7, K-State by 3, TCU by 3 and Iowa State by 10 while losing by 4 to Oklahoma.  It should be five one-score games in their last six considering Iowa State had a PAT blocked and returned for 2 points by Texas, turning a 7-point game into a 10-point game and costing Cyclones backers the cover.

Texas just lost star RB Jonathan Brooks to a season-ending injury two weeks ago against TCU.  He has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.1 per carry, while also catching 25 balls for 286 yards and a score.  Backup CJ Baxter averages just 4.7 per carry and is a big downgrade.  Plus, leading receiver Xavier Worthy got injured in the win over Iowa State last week and was removed from the game.  He is very questionable to play this week.  That would be a big blow considering Worthy leads the team with 63 receptions, 834 yards and 4 TD.

Texas Tech has been a dangerous team with a healthy Behren Morton at QB.  He is completing 63.3% of his passes for 1,410 yards with a 12-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for three scores.  Well, he has been healthy here down the stretch and it has led to a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS run with wins over TCU, Kansas and UCF.  They have now clinched a bowl at 6-5 and have no pressure on them, so they will be pulling out all the stops to try and knock off Texas.

Last year, Texas Tech beat Texas 37-34 as 7-point home dogs, and now they are catching 13.5 points in the rematch on the road.  There was nothing fluky about that win as Texas Tech racked up 479 total yards and outgained Texas by 53 yards in that contest.  I like this Texas Tech defense, which allows 5.4 yards per play this season.  To compare, Texas allows 5.2 yards per play, so they have only been slightly better.

Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 475 or more yards last game.  Texas is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 home games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games. The Longhorns may get lucky and win another close game, but they aren't going to win by two-plus touchdowns to beat us.  Bet Texas Tech Friday.

15* UTSA/Tulane AAC ANNIHILATOR on UTSA +3.5

The UTSA Roadrunners won Conference USA each of the last two seasons.  Now they are trying to show that they are the best team in their new conference in the American Athletic.  I think they are the best team outside SMU, and they prove it here this week against Tulane.

UTSA has been hitting on all cylinders since getting a healthy Frank Harris back at QB.  He has an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio since Week 9 and he means everything to this team.  The Roadrunners are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in AAC play.  They are scoring 41.0 points per game, averaging 464.6 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play, while allowing 22.1 points per game, 364.3 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.

Tulane is also 7-0 but 2-5 ATS and has been fortunate to win some of these close games against bad teams.  Tulane is averaging 27.4 points per game, 403.3 yards per game and 6.2 per play in conference play while allowing 20.0 points per game, 342.6 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  UTSA has the better numbers, and that's especially the case when you compare common opponents.

UTSA is 5-0 against common opponents of Tulane.  They are scoring 37.8 points per game and allowing 20.0 points per game in those five games.  Tulane is scoring 27.4 points per game and allowing 19.4 points per game against those same five opponents.  So it's clear these defenses are pretty even, but UTSA has far and away the better offense.

Tulane only won 24-22 as a 24-point home favorite over Tulsa, 13-10 as a 17-point road favorite at ECU, 30-28 as a 10-point favorite at Rice and 35-28 as a 20.5-point home favorite over North Texas.  That's four one-score games against four of the worst teams in the conference.  Their luck runs out this week against a legit team in UTSA.

Plays on road teams (UTSA) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7-plus games after scoring 42 points or more last game are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  UTSA gets and extra day of rest and preparation after hosting USF last Friday, while Tulane had to travel to face FAU on Saturday.  That's a nice little hidden edge for the Roadrunners.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet UTSA Friday.

15* Miami/Boston College ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston College +9

I really question Miami's motivation and their physical and mental state going into this regular season finale against Boston College.  What started out as a promising season with a win over Texas A&M and hopes of winning the ACC has turned into a disaster.  It all unraveled for Miami when they didn't take a knee and lost to Georgia Tech.

The Hurricanes have gone 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last five games overall with both wins coming by 8 points or less, so they haven't covered this kind of number in any of their last seven games.  They are coming off three consecutive losses in high-profile games.  They lost 20-6 at NC State, 27-20 at Florida State and 38-31 to Louisville.  After falling just short against FSU and Louisville, two national title contenders, they won't be nearly as excited to face Boston College this week.

Boston College will have no problem getting up to face Miami.  I also like the spot for Boston College because they get extra rest here after playing Pittsburgh on Thursday last week.  So they get two more days of rest than Miami will on this short week for the Hurricanes.  That's a big advantage and probably worth a couple points.  Sometimes you just have to play the spot, and this is one of those times.

Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Miami is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite.  The Hurricanes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after going over the total in their previous game.  The Hurricanes are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games when playing with 6 or fewer days' rest.  Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team that allows a 58% completion percentage or worse.  Bet Boston College Friday.

15* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +11.5

Memphis just suffered their dream crusher loss in a 38-34 home loss to SMU that eliminated them from AAC Championship contention.  They will fall flat on their faces this week and probably lose this game outright to Temple now.  We'll take the points with the Owls as a result.

Temple has been so much more competitive when QB EJ Warner has been healthy.  Warner is completing 57.7% of his passes for 2,746 yards with a 21-to-11 TD/INT ratio.  He returned against Navy three weeks ago and threw for 402 yards and 4 TD.  He threw for 280 yards and 3 TD against USF two weeks ago.  And he threw for 323 yards and 2 TD against UAB last week.  Temple was competitive in all three games.

Memphis just has a way of playing in close games.  In fact, eight of Memphis' last nine games have been decided by 10 points or fewer.  The lone exception was their 45-21 win over UAB that came against a backup QB for UAB due to injury.  It was also a misleading final as UAB actually outgained them 381 to 358 but was -4 in turnovers.

The reason Memphis struggles to get margin is because their defense is awful.  They have allowed 38 points or more in four consecutive games.  They allow 34.9 points per game, 464 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play in conference play.  Those are numbers very similar to Temple.  I think the Owls can keep up in a shootout, and they will never be out of this one due to Memphis' leaky defense.  Bet Temple Friday.

20* Iowa/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska -1

I love the spot for the Nebraska Cornhuskers this week.  They need one more win to get bowl eligible.  That only adds to their motivation to beat their biggest rivals in the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They lost by 3 to Michigan State, by 3 to Maryland and in OT to Wisconsin in their last three games but were -6 in turnovers in those three games and easily could have won all three.  This is a much better team than their 5-6 record would indicate.  They aren't going to pack it in now.

Conversely, Iowa is a much worse team than its 9-2 record would indicate.  They are actually getting outgained by 34 yards per game on the season despite playing a very soft schedule.  They have the worst offense in the country averaging 247.5 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play.  Compare that to Nebraska, which averages 317.9 yards per game and 5.2 per play.

But the biggest reason to back Nebraska is because Iowa is in a massive letdown spot here.  They just clinched a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game by beating Illinois last week.  They will be looking ahead to that game, and they won't put nearly as much emphasis into beating Nebraska as they normally would.  They want to stay healthy to try and give a good effort in that game after getting blown out pretty much every time they have won the Big Ten West in recent years.  They will get blown out again in that game, but first they are going to fall to Nebraska Friday.

After four straight heartbreaking losses to Iowa by one score in all four, the Huskers finally broke through with a 24-17 win at Iowa last year.  They deserved to win every one of those one-score games and finally got one.  That will give them a lot of confidence that they can do it again this year with that monkey off their back and a 7-game losing streak to Iowa in the rearview.

Nebraska has been through three different quarterbacks this season due to injury.  They may have found their best QB against Wisconsin last week in Chuba Purdy.  He completed 15-of-24 passes for 169 yards with one TD and one INT, while also rushing for 105 yards and a score on 14 carries.  He gives them a great chance to win if he starts again this week, and whoever is under center will be better than Iowa's Deacon Hill, who is completing 49.7% of his passes and averaging just 5.1 per attempt.

Iowa needs to be able to run the ball to be successful.  Well, they aren't going to be able to run on Nebraska's stout run defense.  The Huskers allow just 87 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry, holding opponents to 45 rushing yards per game and 1.1 per carry less than their season averages.  Nebraska is the better rushing team averaging 187 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry and will win the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one.  That will be the difference, plus their edge in motivation.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +9

The Texas Longhorns are starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff by winning the Big 12.  Four of their last five games have been decided by 7 points or less with the lone exception behind their 35-6 home win over a BYU team that is the worst in the Big 12.  It's also a BYU team that Iowa State just blasted 45-13 on the road to compare.  This game will likely be decided by one score as well, so getting 9 points at home with the Cyclones is tremendous value.

After a 4-point loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, Texas then had a bye and wasn't impressive in a 31-24 win at Houston.  That's a Houston team that's probably the 2nd-worst team in the Big 12.  They also needed OT to beat Kansas State by 3 at home and escaped with a 29-26 win at TCU last week against their backup QB.  Iowa State beat TCU 27-14 at home to compare.

Iowa State isn't scared of Texas.  The Cyclones are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with their lone loss coming by 3 points as 16-point road dogs at Texas last year.  Iowa State has outgained Texas in three of those four wins and by a wide margin, too.  Iowa State is averaging 444.5 yards per game while holding Texas to 336.3 yards per game in those four meetings, outgaining Texas by 108.2 yards per game on average.

What makes Iowa State such an underrated team is a defense that is one of the best in the country, allowing 19.9 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  This defense gives them a chance in any game.  They have gotten their running game going in recent weeks rushing for 125 or more yards in five of their last six games, which has taken pressure off of freshman QB Rocco Becht, who is arguably the best freshman QB in the entire country.  He has only thrown 7 interceptions this season while only taking 8 sacks despite starting all 10 games.

Texas just lost star RB Jonathan Brooks to a season-ending injury in that win over TCU last week.  Brooks has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns this season while averaging 6.1 per carry.  It's a huge drop off from him to backup RB C.J. Baxter, who has only rushed for 300 yards and 4.5 per carry this season.  The Cyclones won't have to load the box to stop the run and can play the way they want to defensively.  And they clearly have this Texas offense figured out in recent years, holding them to 21 or fewer points in each of the last four meetings, and 27 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings.

Steve Sarkisian is 0-6 ATS following two consecutive conference wins as the coach of Texas.  Matt Campbell is 12-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State.  I fully expect the Cyclones to win this game outright, so put part of your bet on the money line as well.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Utah State +3

The Utah State Aggies are one of the most underrated teams in college football right now.  They are 4-2 SU in their last six games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only two losses coming against the two best teams in the Mountain West in San Jose State and Fresno State.  They outgained Fresno State 568 to 461 to boot and should have won.

Utah State sits at 5-5 and highly motivated to get that 6th win and bowl eligibility.  The Aggies have elite numbers for a team that is .500 on the season.  They are outgaining opponents 448 to 402 or by 46 yards per game, and outgaining opponents 6.2 to 5.4 yards per play, or by an average of 0.8 yards per play.  The Aggies are remarkably healthy with only two plays on the injury report and neither is important.

Boise State is also 5-5 but with worse numbers.  The Broncos average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 6.2 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play.  And another difference is that Boise State's injury report is much worse.  They are without their top three receivers that were expected to start coming into the season.  They could also be without RB Aston Jeanty, who has rushed for 921 yards and 11 TD on 5.9 per carry, while also ranking 2nd on the team in receiving with 30 receptions, 396 yards and 4 TD.  He has missed the last two games and is questionable to return.

I had Utah State +16.5 at Boise State last season and it was arguably the worst bad beat of the entire season.  Trailing 28-23 with 1:09 to go, the Aggies allowed a 91-yard TD Run to fall behind 35-23.  We were still covering, but then a 48-yard INT return TD by Boise State with 31 seconds remaining turned a sure winner into an unfathomable 42-23 loser.  As you can see, I'm still not over it.  But Utah State is going to want revenge from that defeat as well, adding to their motivation.  They actually outgained Boise State 468 to 428 in that game and have outgained them in each of the last two meetings.

Boise State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by 21 points or more.  Utah State is 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS on the road this season.  They are allowing 38.0 points per game, 459 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on the road this season.  Boise State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a cover as a double-digit favorite.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Illinois/Iowa OVER 30.5

I'm definitely trying to catch the falling knife by backing an Iowa OVER but I feel like this is the perfect time to do it for a number of reasons.  The Hawkeyes have gone under the total in five consecutive games coming into this one, but they have played four straight dead nuts under teams in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers.  All four of those teams have great defenses and terrible offenses.

The two games prior they played two teams that have a pulse on offense and are poor defensively in Purdue and Michigan State and combined for 34 points with Purdue and 42 with Michigan State.  But this game against Illinois is Iowa's first real Big Ten game against a dead nuts OVER team.

The Fighting Illini are coming off a 48-45 (OT) win over Indiana last week.  They racked up 662 total yards on the Hoosiers while allowing 453 total yards.  That was their 3rd straight OVER as they also combined for 53 points with Minnesota the game prior in a 27-26 victory.  And the week prior they went for 46 combined points with Wisconsin, while also going for 51 combined points with Maryland the game before that.

In fact, Illinois and their opponents have gone for 40 or more combined points in nine of their 10 games this season, making for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 30.5-point total.  The only game that finished below this 30.5-point total was their 20-7 loss to Nebraska, and Nebraska has an elite defense and no offense.  It was also a very windy Friday night game where I was on the UNDER and Nebraska because of the weather conditions.

Iowa's offense came to life last week against a very good defense in Rutgers.  They racked up 22 points and 402 total yards and should have scored more.  But they took a knee inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds.  Iowa is going to have to score to keep up with Illinois, because Illinois is going to score.  They aren't going to just be able to sit on a lead like they have in recent weeks playing it close to the vest.

Iowa suffered a big blow in practice this week as defensive back Cooper DeJean suffered a leg injury and is now out for the season.  He was their best player on either side of the football, and without him their defense takes a big hit in the secondary.  DeJean has been so good that he was a semi-finalist for the Chuck Bednarik Award for the best defensive player in all of college football.

Illinois is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game.  Iowa is 24-10 OVER in its last 34 home games following two or more consecutive unders.  We can at least get to 17-14 for god's sake.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State/WKU OVER 52

I like backing OVERS late in the college football season involving teams with little to play for.  Well, here's a good example of that.  Sam Houston State is 2-8 this season and won't be going to a bowl game.  They will be excited about these last couple games in the first season as a FBS program.

Western Kentucky just lost to New Mexico State last week in a game that decided which one of those two teams would have a chance to square off against Liberty for the C-USA title.  They play arguably the worst team in all of college football in Florida International next week if they need that game to get bowl eligible sitting at 5-5 this season.  The Hilltoppers couldn't care less about this game, which has me leaning toward taking Sam Houston State as well.  But I prefer the OVER instead.

Sam Houston State has gone through a change in philosophy here down the stretch becoming more pass-heavy and up-tempo.  That has led to the OVER going 4-0 in their last four games overall.  They combined for 60 points with Florida International, 71 points with UTEP, 45 points with FCS Kennesaw State and 69 points with Louisiana Tech.  The Bearkats have passed for at least 225 yards in seven consecutive games now, and they have also rushed for at least 104 yards in four consecutive games.

The Bearkats should find plenty of success against a Western Kentucky defense that has been dreadful here down the stretch, especially in their last two home games.  They allowed 42 points to Liberty in a game that saw 71 combined points.  They allowed 38 points to New Mexico State in a game that saw 67 combined points.  The Hilltoppers allow 447 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season now.

Sam Houston State allows 30.0 points per game, 426.5 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play in conference play this season.  They'll be up against a high-powered, pass-happy Western Kentucky offense that puts up 36.4 points per game, 453 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play at home.  The Hilltoppers are averaging 317 passing yards per game at home as well.  This is a very low total for a game involving Western Kentucky. It's their lowest total of the entire season, so there's value on the OVER with that fact alone.

The weather looks great pretty much across the country this week so I wouldn't be looking to back too many unders.  This one is no exception with the forecast calling for temps in the 50's, no rain and single-digits winds Saturday at Western Kentucky.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +4

Arkansas State is quietly playing very well and knocking on the door of bowl eligibility.  The Red Wolves have gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall including a 37-17 upset win as 7-point dogs to UL-Lafayette.  They gave South Alabama all they wanted on the road last week in a 14-21 loss at 15-point dogs.  They play Texas State this week at home and will be highly motivated to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility for the first time since 2019.

Texas State already clinched bowl eligibility two weeks ago with a 45-24 home win over Georgia Southern.  They still had an outside shot of making the Sun Belt Championship Game heading into last week, but fell flat on their faces in a 31-23 loss at Coastal Carolina against a 3rd-string QB.  So they have nothing to play for in these final two games now and I question their motivation.  Their season is already considered a success no matter what happens because nobody expected them to make a bowl in GJ Kinne's first season on the job.

Kinne is a great offensive mind who took college football by storm by upsetting Baylor in the opener.  But Baylor looks to be one of the worst teams in the Big 12, and that win doesn't look as good as it did at the time.  Plus, teams are figuring out this Texas State offense now with plenty of film on it.  Texas State has been held to 23 or fewer points in three of their last four games.

Arkansas State's resurgence is largely due to playing much better defensively.  They have held five of their last six opponents to 28 points or fewer with the only exception behind the 37 they gave up to Troy, which is the favorite to win the Sun Belt.  Texas State also gave up 31 to Troy and has allowed 31 or more points in four of their last six games overall.  They have a dreadful defense and one that can't be trusted to lay points on the road here, especially against a team like Arkansas State that will be more motivated than they are.

Arkansas State is also playing with triple revenge here from three straight heartbreaking close losses to Texas State.  They lost the last three meetings by 3, 2 and 2 points the last three seasons.  A 3-point loss works for us if it happens again, but I fully expect the Red Wolves to win this game outright.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +7

Cincinnati is one of the best 3-7 teams I've ever seen.  They have had terrible turnover luck this season coupled with red zone struggles that has them sitting at 3-7 when they should be .500 or better at least.  Let's just look at the numbers to make my point.

Cincinnati is actually outgaining opponents by 78 yards per game.  They average 444 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing 366 yards per game on defense.  They have rushed for 224 yards per game and thrown for 221 yards per game, making them one of the rare teams to throw and pass for at least 200 yards per game this season.

West Virginia is 6-4 this season despite a worse statistical profile than Cincinnati.  The Mountaineers average 412 yards per game on offense and give up 395 yards per game on defense, only outgaining opponents by 17 yards per game.  We are getting the better team here catching a full touchdown in Cincinnati because of their misleading results up to this point.

I think this is a terrible spot for West Virginia.  The Mountaineers clinched bowl eligibility by beating BYU at home.  But last week they had a chance to get into Big 12 title contention if they could somehow upset Oklahoma.  West Virginia got blasted 59-20 at Oklahoma and gave up 646 total yards to the Sooners.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat as they don't have anything else to play for in these final two regular season games.

Scott Satterfield is 13-4 ATS in road games following a road game as a head coach.  After picking up their first Big 12 win 24-14 at Houston last week, I think the Bearcats will be out to prove it was no fluke.  They like how victory tastes and want to taste it again this week.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Rutgers +20.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are in a terrible spot this week.  They just had their dreams of winning the Big Ten Championship crushed last week with a 24-15 home loss to Michigan.  They actually own the tiebreaker over both Michigan and Ohio State had they won that game, so they let a golden opportunity slip away.  I don't expect them to show up at all this week.

James Franklin just fired his offensive coordinator, making a rash decision not wanting to put any of the blame on himself.  And we've seen Franklin's teams really falter coming off a loss.  Franklin is 9-23 ATS off a loss at Penn State, including 2-9 ATS off a loss when listed as a double-digit favorite.  Asking Penn State to beat Rutgers by three touchdowns or more to beat us is asking too much.

I think we are getting more points than we should here because Rutgers is coming off a 22-0 shutout loss at Iowa.  But that was a big sandwich and flat spot for Rutgers.  They had their chances to upset Ohio State the previous week, and they had this huge game against Penn State on deck this week.  They weren't fully focused against Iowa, while the Hawkeyes were fully focused trying to win a Big Ten West title.

Rutgers will fire back this week and play as well as they did against Ohio State two weeks ago.  The Scarlet Knights actually outgained the Buckeyes 361 to 328, or by 31 total yards in that misleading 35-16 loss.  The problem was settling for field goals in the red zone while the Buckeyes converted their opportunities into touchdowns.  They Scarlet Knights kicked three field goals of 20, 21 and 22 yards and also had their next trip inside the 10 result in a 93-yard INT return TD for Ohio State.  If they can play with Ohio State, they can certainly play with Penn State.

Penn State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games following a conference home loss.  Greg Schiano is 18-4 ATS in road games after losing two of his last three games as a head coach.  The spot really favors the Scarlet Knights in this one and it's not being factored into the line as much as it should be.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* South Florida/UTSA ESPN 2 No-Brainer on South Florida +16

This game means nothing to UTSA.  Their game against Tulane next week is all that matters.  The winner of that game will make the C-USA Championship Game.  As a result, I think this is a flat spot and a lookahead spot for the Roadrunners that will assure that they won't bring their best effort Friday night, and that's going to make it tough for them to cover this 16-point spread when they aren't motivated to do so.

UTSA is coming off a 34-14 win over Rice last week that wasn't impressive at all when you consider Rice was missing starting QB JT Daniels.  They barely beat North Texas 37-29 the week prior and struggled to put away ECU 41-27 at home the week prior.  Neither of those teams are as good as South Florida, so I think the Bulls can hang here.

South Florida sits at 5-5 and motivated to get one more win for bowl eligibility and will clearly be the more motivated team tonight.  They beat Temple 27-23 last week and that's a Temple team that just got back starting QB EJ Warner, who means everything to them.  The Bulls gave Memphis all they could handle in a 59-50 road loss as 12.5-point dogs the game prior.  That Memphis team is also battling to make the C-USA Championship game.

South Florida will be in this game for four quarters tonight due to an offense that is absolutely electric.  The Bulls put up 30.1 points per game and 453.4 yards per game on the season and that includes a game in the slog against Alabama in which they were held to 3 points but played the Crimson Tide tough in a 17-3 defeat.  The Bulls are scoring 35.3 points per game and averaging 487.5 yards per game and 6.2 per play in conference play.  They are also scoring 35.4 points per game, averaging 498 yards per game and 5.8 per play on the road this season.

Jeff Traylor is 1-8 ATS in home games after outgaining their previous opponent by 125 or more total yards as the coach of UTSA.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven dome games.  The Roadrunners are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after outrushing their opponent by 125 or more yards last game.  Bet South Florida Friday.

 20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan +5

Western Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and should be 7-0 ATS, so they are a way undervalued commodity right now.  They are coming off a 38-28 win over Central Michigan as 3-point home favorites where they gained 484 total yards in a dominant effort.  That followed up a 45-21 win at Eastern Michigan as a 3-point favorite.  

The Broncos also took Ohio to the wire as 16.5-point road dogs in a 20-17 loss the game prior.  They gave Miami Ohio all they could handle the game prior.  They covered in a 28-41 loss at Mississippi State as 21.5-point dogs.  They blasted Ball State 42-24 as 1.5-point favorites.  They also covered in a loss at Toledo and deserved to cover in a loss at Iowa.

Now Western Michigan is catching 5 points against a Northern Illinois team that can't get out of their own way right now and is overvalued.  The Huskies are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall despite being favored in all three games.  They only beat Eastern Michigan 20-13 as 12-point home favorites.  They lost at Central Michigan 37-31 as 6-point road favorites.  They lost 20-17 at home to Ball State as 9-point home favorites last time out.  Those are three of the worst teams in the MAC.  They cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number against a Western Michigan team that is playing better than them to close out the season.

Western Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven MAC road games.  Northern Illinois is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.  The Huskies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites overall.  Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.

20* USC/Oregon FOX Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -14.5

The gift that keeps on giving for us is fading USC.  USC is now 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 108 points, or an average of 15.4 points per game.  They only beat Arizona State by 14, Colorado by 7 and Arizona by 2 before losing by 28 to Notre Dame.  The Trojans have played such a soft schedule this season and finally met their match against Notre Dame.

They have since lost outright by 2 at home as 7-point favorites against Utah and were life and death with Cal as 10-point favorites, escaping with a 1-point victory.  They lost by 10 to Washington as 2.5-point home dogs last week which ended their hopes of winning the Pac-12.  I really question their motivation the rest of the way.

Now USC will face its stiffest test of the season on the road against an Oregon team that looks like a bonafide playoff contender and the best team in the Pac-12.  Oregon is 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS this season with elite numbers on offense and defense.  They are scoring 47.4 points per game, averaging 540.1 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play, while allowing just 16.0 points per game, 301.9 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 3.1 yards per play, which is absolutely elite.

They will be able to score at will on a USC defense that allows 34.5 points per game, 436.5 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  This USC defense is the reason they aren't a contender.  They have a very good offense, but it doesn't matter because the defense can't stop anyone.  They certainly aren't going to stop Oregon after allowing 52 points to Washington and 49 to Cal the last two weeks.  They have allowed 41 or more points in five of their last six games, and the lone exception was the 34 they allowed to a Utah offense that isn't even very good.  To compare, Oregon held Utah to 6 points in a 35-6 victory two weeks ago in Salt Lake City to boot.

Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 42 points or more.  This line should be much higher given the circumstances with USC a dead team walking and Oregon with a ton to play for.  Plus, it's a Saturday night home game for the Ducks in what will be a very hostile atmosphere in their favor.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Jose State ML -103

Despite their 4-5 record, the San Jose State Spartans are very much alive to win the Mountain West.  They trail the Fresno State Bulldogs by just one game for 2nd place, and the top two teams play for the title.  They have put themselves in this position by playing their best football of the season of late after a brutal schedule to start the season.

San Jose State is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  They beat New Mexico 52-24 as 6-point road favorites behind 541 total yards with 16.0 yards per pass attempt and 8.1 yards per rush.  They beat a very good Utah State team 42-21 and held their high-powered offense to just 264 total yards.  Then they beat Hawaii 35-0 while holding a solid Hawaii offense to 198 total yards.

That game against Hawaii was two weeks ago so they are coming off a bye and have had two full weeks to prepare for Fresno State.  Meanwhile, Fresno State is coming off four straight games decided by a single score that went down to the wire.  That includes their 37-30 win over Boise State last week where a kickoff return TD was the difference on the final play before half, plus they punched in a TD late on a breakaway 52-yard run.

Fresno State has been outgained in three consecutive games despite winning all three as they have simply been fortunate in close games.  They gave up 568 yards to Utah State, 424 yards to UNLV and 488 yards to Boise State.  Their defense isn't very good, and they are going to struggle to stop this surging San Jose State offense led by QB Chandler Cordeiro.  He is completing 61% of his passes with a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for three scores on the ground.  The Spartans have rushed for at least 217 yards in three consecutive games and have tremendous balance.

No question Fresno State is led by a very good offense, but QB Mikey Keene is still hobbled and not 100%.  I think this San Jose State defense is going to perform very well here just as they have the past two games against Utah State and Hawaii.  They will put this two weeks of preparation to good use in coming up with the right game plan to at least slow down this Bulldogs offense.  I think Fresno State's luck runs out this week in what is a terrible spot for them, and a great one for the Spartans.

Fresno State is 4-13 ATS in its last 16 road games following two consecutive home wins.  San Jose State is 6-0 ATS in Saturday games this season.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Georgia ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +11

The Ole Miss Rebels are very much alive to win the SEC West with just one loss this season.  They are going to need Alabama to slip up, but they still have to play Kentucky and Auburn.  I have no doubt Ole Miss will be 'all in' this week to try and knock off the defending two-time national champion Georgia Bulldogs.  They are treating this game as their national championship.

Georgia has been overvalued all season after winning the title each of the last two seasons.  They are consistently laying too many points, going 2-6-1 ATS in their nine games this season despite being 9-0 straight up.  They let South Carolina, Auburn, Missouri and Vanderbilt all hang around with three of those wins coming by 10 points or fewer.  This will now be by far their toughest test of the season.

I cashed Missouri +16 last week against Georgia and they were only outgained by 22 yards in a 9-point loss at Georgia.  That was the game Georgia had to win because it basically sealed the SEC East for them.  It also followed up the win over Florida, their biggest rivals.  So this is the third straight game they are going to have to get up for, and I don't like their mental state coming into this one.  Those games against SEC East foes Florida and Missouri were much more important than this game against Ole Miss from the West.

Ole Miss has played the 13th-toughest schedule in the country while Georgia has played the 69th.  That's a 56-spot difference in strength of schedule.  That important to consider when looking at the statistical profile of these two teams, which is much closer than you would expect for a team catching 11 points.  Ole Miss gains 6.9 yards per play and allows 5.1 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.  Georgia averages 7.1 yards per play and allows 4.7 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 2.4 yards per play.

Georgia has a couple injuries here that are also concerning.  They lost leading receiver Brock Bowers a couple games ago.  He has 41 receptions for 567 yards and 4 TD and was even in the Heisman Trophy discussion for how well he was playing.  They just lost starting LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson to a fractured forearm against Missouri, and he's the 3rd-leading tackler on the team and has the most sacks.  Fellow LB Xavian Sorey Jr. missed last game and is questionable to return.

Ole Miss has the kind of high-powered offense that is going to keep them in this game for four quarters.  QB Jaxoson Dart is completing 65.6% of his passes with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio and averaging 10.1 yards per attempt, while also rushing for 334 yards and 7 TD on the ground.  He has arguably the most talented trio of receivers in the country in Harris, Watkins and Wade.  The Rebels have nice balance rushing for 181 yards per game, and teams have been able to move the ball on the ground against this Georgia defense unlike previous years.

Georgia is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games following three consecutive conference wins, including 1-9 ATS under Kirby Smart in this spot.  The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after not committing a turnover in their previous game.  Georgia is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. excellent passing teams that allow 275 or more passing yards per game.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati/Houston OVER 54.5

I like backing OVERS between two teams with not much to play for.  There tends to be more offense and less defense in these games.  Cincinnati sits at 2-7 on the season while Houston sits at 4-5.  They aren't going to be concerned with playing defense in this one, and it's not like either of these teams has played very good defense anyway all season.

Cincinnati allows 28.3 points per game and 6.2 yards per play overall, including 31.7 points per game and 6.5 yards per play in Big 12 play.  Houston allows 31.6 points per game and 6.0 yards per play overall, including 36.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play in conference play.

Cincinnati has a great offense for a team that is 2-7.  The Bearcats average 452.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season, but they have been done in by turnovers.  Houston averages 25.2 points per game and 5.7 yards per play and should get their offense going this week against this Cincinnati defense.

Four of Cincinnati's last five games have seen 54 or more combined points.  I think this total is lower than it should be because Houston has gone under the total in three straight games, but they played two great defenses in Texas and Kansas State.  They got their offense going last week against Baylor again and that should continue against Cincinnati this week.

Houston is 6-0 OVER vs. bad teams with a winning percentage of 25% or less over the last three seasons.  Dana Holgorsen is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. teams that average 32-plus minutes in time of possession and 21 or more first downs per game as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Colorado State -3.5

I faded San Diego State last week with success and I am fading the Aztecs again for many of the same reasons.  Brady Hoke is used to competing for Mountain West titles but he has lost his touch.  It's unlikely he'll be back after this season, and this just looks like a dead Aztecs team right now. They sit at just 3-6 on the season and won't even be making a bowl game once they lost this week.

They suffered a 6-0 home loss to Nevada two weeks ago, which came against one of the worst teams in all of college football.  They were life and death the game prior against Hawaii and were fortunate to win that game considering Hawaii had 480 total yards but committed four costly turnovers.  And the week prior they were flat as a pancake in a 49-10 loss at Air Force.

They were more competitive last week but were fortunate to force OT as they trailed Utah State 17-7 at home with 11 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter.  Utah State missed a 38-yard field goal to give them life, and they took advantage by scoring the final 10 points.  They wound up losing 32-24 in double-OT, which was yet another deflating loss.  I don't think they'll be able to get back up off the mat in time to face Colorado State on the road this week.

San Diego State is 3-6 this season and every bit as bad as that record would indicate.  They are gaining 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.0 yards per play.  They are also getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game.  They have another terrible offense this season, but the difference has been having their worst defense in over a decade.

Colorado State is much better than its 2-6 record would indicate.  They should have beaten Colorado in a double-OT loss, and they played UNLV to the wire in a 2-point defeat.  They did beat Boise State, which was a very good win.  They were competitive against both Air Force and Wyoming when you look at the numbers, too.  This is a massive step down in class for Colorado State after their gauntlet of a schedule over the last five weeks.  They also get an extra day of rest after losing at Wyoming last Friday.

Colorado State has played six road games and only three home games, while San Diego State has played six home games and only three road games.  The Rams have played the much tougher schedule to this point as well, especially when you consider the home/road discrepancy.  They close with three very winnable games against SDSU, Nevada and Hawaii and could still get to a bowl with a lot to play for.  I think the Rams get a good reset here knowing that's the case.  It starts with a win and cover here against the dead Aztecs.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +12

Arkansas State is quietly playing very well and knocking on the door of bowl eligibility.  The Red Wolves have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and coming off a 37-17 upset win as 7-point dogs to UL-Lafayette.  They have a tough remaining schedule so will be 'all in' in every game the rest of the way to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility.

South Alabama is in the midst of a disappointing season.  They were expected to contend for a Sun Belt title with 18 returning starters from a team that nearly won the title last year.  But they lost to James Madison in their Sun Belt opener, and have since lost two more times in conference play to knock them out of title contention.

The 33-20 loss to Louisiana at home as 12-point favorites hurt two weeks ago, but they were still alive when they took on Troy last week.  Their 28-10 loss to Troy ended all hope.  Now I question their motivation the rest of the way.  That loss to Troy was the kind of loss that could easily beat a team twice.

QB Carter Bradley got hurt against Louisiana and missed the Troy game because of it.  He must have been really hurt to miss the Troy game with their season on the line.  He is questionable to return this week, but my best guess is he doesn't play, and even if he does he won't be anywhere near 100%.  Bradley completed 66% of his passes while averaging 8.5 per attempt this season, and there's a huge drop off to his backup.

The Jaguars have no business being 12-point favorites here over Arkansas State given their lack of motivation and the injury to Bradley.  There's a ton of value here with the Red Wolves, who are live underdogs to pull off the upset once again.  South Alabama is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games when playing against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%).  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +4.5

What more does New Mexico State have to do to get some respect? They are 7-3 SU & 7-2-1 ATS this season and still lacking the respect they deserve as 4.5-point underdogs to a Western Kentucky team that they are better than.  New Mexico State is trying to earn a berth to the C-USA Championship Game, and another win Saturday would go a long way in accomplishing that goal.

New Mexico State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in conference play with their lone loss coming to Liberty, the C-USA favorite that remains unbeaten this season.  Western Kentucky is 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS in conference play this season.  New Mexico State is outgaining opponents by 15.5 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play in conference play.  Western Kentucky is getting outgained by 28.2 yards per game and only outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play in conference play.  It's clear to me New Mexico State is the better team when you look at the numbers.

WKU is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall.  They were upset by Jacksonville State and nothing was fluky about that defeat, getting outgained 484 to 339, or by 145 total yards.  They lost 42-29 to Liberty at home in their most important game of the season.  Then last week they were fortunate to beat a terrible UTEP team as a 9-point favorite, actually getting outgained 368 to 280 by UTEP or by 88 total yards.  They just aren't playing well enough right now to warrant being a 4.5-point favorite here.

The Aggies have a huge matchup advantage on the ground in this one.  They rush for 203 yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry.  Western Kentucky allows 211 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry this season. They are going to be able to get whatever they want on the ground, and they are the much more balanced offense in this one as WKU only averages 111 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry.  New Mexico State averages 222 passing yards per game and 9.0 per attempt this season.  WKU only averages 6.7 passing yards per attempt.

The Aggies average 7.2 yards per play on offense and allow 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.  WKU averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 6.0 per play on defense, actually getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.

New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games.  The Aggies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I fully expect the Aggies to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance in a game that could easily be decided by a FG either way.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

15* Alabama/Kentucky ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -10.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide have quietly gone 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS since their loss to Texas and are hitting on all cylinders right now.  They have their sights set on making the SEC Championship Game with a lot to play for the rest of the way.  They will win the SEC West if they win out, so they won't be taking Kentucky lightly this week.

Back-to-back 14-point wins over both Tennessee and LSU were impressive, and now they take a step down in class here against a Kentucky team that fails every time they step up in class.  Case in point being their 51-13 loss at Georgia four games back and their 38-21 home loss to Missouri, followed by their 33-27 home loss to Tennessee.  They ended their 3-game losing streak with a 24-3 win over Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs have a ton of injuries right now and were playing with a backup QB to boot.  I give them zero credit for that victory.

QB Devin Leary is questionable to play for Kentucky, but whoever is under center is going to have zero success against this elite Alabama defense.  I would be surprised if Alabama doesn't hold Kentucky to a season low in points in this one, which will pave the way for them to covering this 10.5-point spread.  Alabama's offense has averaged 38 points in their consecutive wins over LSU and Tennessee.

The Crimson Tide have played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country while Kentucky has played the 65th-ranked schedule.  That's a difference of 64 spots.  Alabama is 7-0 in its last seven meetings with Kentucky with six of those seven wins coming by double-digits.  It should be more of the same in this meeting with what the Crimson Tide have at stake here.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +14

Georgia Tech has been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They are one win away from bowl eligibility at 5-4 and will be motivated to beat Clemson.  They have already pulled off upsets against two of the best teams in the ACC in Miami as 19-point road dogs and UNC as 11.5-point home dogs, and those two efforts will give them the confidence to hang with Clemson as 14-point road dogs this weekend.

I question Clemson's motivation and what they have left in the tank.  They have played four straight games that went down to the wire against Wake Forest in a 17-12 victory, Miami in a 28-20 loss, NC State in a 24-17 loss and Notre Dame in a 31-23 win.  They are coming off that Notre Dame win, making this a classic letdown spot for them.  Their offense isn't good enough to get margin against this Georgia Tech team that is going to keep coming.  

Georgia Tech's offense put up 46 on UNC and 45 on Virginia the last two weeks and is an explosive unit.  The Yellow Jackets average 6.8 yards per play while Clemson's offense averages 5.4 yards per play.  No question Clemson has the better defense, but they only outgain opponents by 1.0 yards per play on the season while Georgia Tech is solid outgaining opponents by 0.4 yards per play.  That slight edge for the Tigers doesn't warrant them being 14-point favorites here.

Georgia Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest.  The Yelow Jackets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog.  Clemson is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games with a total of 52.5 to 56.  The yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Yellow Jackets played one-score games against Louisville, UNC and Miami already this season, and this is likely to be a one-score game as well.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* Wyoming/UNLV FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV -5.5

The UNLV Rebels have been the most undervalued team in the entire country.  They are 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS this season and legit contenders to win the Mountain West.  They won't be lacking any motivation tonight with Wyoming visiting Las Vegas in what is going to be a hostile atmosphere Friday night inside Allegiant Stadium.

UNLV is 4-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per game.  Wyoming has played six of its first nine games ad home.  While Wyoming is 6-0 at home, they are 0-3 on the road and getting outscored by 17.6 points per game.  They are averaging just 14.7 points per game, 241.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play in their three road games.

Wyoming lacks a consistent passing attack averaging just 150 passing yards per game.  They won't be able to take advantage of UNLV's one weakness, which is defending the pass.  This is strength on strength here.  Wyoming averages 152 rushing yards per game, and they'll be up against a UNLV defense that allows just 126 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  They'll be able to stop Wyoming from running the football, which will be the key to their win and cover.

UNLV has a balanced offensive attack averaging 36.7 points per game and 6.2 yards per play this season with 201 rushing yards per game and 225 passing yards per game.  Wyoming gave up 31-plus points in all three road games this season and isn't as good defensively as they get credit for.  They will have a hard time matching up with UNLV's speed on the turf in this one.

UNLV is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a win by 35 points or more.  Bet UNLV Friday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Miss +10.5

Southern Miss is trending in the right direction late in the season under Will Hall, one of the more underrated head coaches in the country.  Their last two games have been impressive.  They lost 48-38 at Appalachian State as 15-point dogs in a misleading final as they outgained the Mountaineers and racked up 588 total yards in defeat.  Then last week they crushed LA Monroe 24-7 as 3-point favorites and outgained them 448 to 260, or by 188 total yards.

Now the Golden Eagles are catching double-digits against a Louisiana team that is down to 3rd-string QB Chandler Fields.  They lost 37-17 at Arkansas State last week as 7-point favorites and were outgained for a 4th consecutive game.  That loss basically eliminated them from Sun Belt title contention.

The Rajin' Cajuns lost starting QB Ben Wooldridge early in the season.  It was a blessing in disguise as backup Zeon Criss has been much better, completing 66.7% of his passes averaging 8.0 yards per attempt while also rushing for 492 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6.7 per attempt.  Chandler Fields is a big downgrade and gives them noting on the ground.  He completed 58.2% of his passes last season and averaged 6.2 per attempt.  There's a reason he was demoted to 3rd string this season.

Southern Miss upset Louisiana 39-24 as 2.5-point home dogs last year.  The Golden Eagles are 25-7 ATS in their last 32 road games after outrushing their last opponent by 125 yards or more.  Louisiana is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 home games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 34 or more points per game.  The Rajin' Cajuns are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 10-plus points per game.  Bet Southern Miss Thursday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan +19

Toledo is grossly overvalued right now due to its 8-1 record.  The Rockets just have a way of playing to their competition, which is why they are 7-0 SU but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They have played some of the very worst teams in all of college football close during this span.

Toledo beat San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Western Michigan by 18 as 21.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites, UMass by 17 as 19-point road favorites, Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites and Miami Ohio by 4 as 2-point road favorites.  As you can see, most of their games have come down to the wire.

Last week, they had no business covering in a misleading 31-13 win over Buffalo as 14.5-point favorites.  They only outgained Buffalo by 28 yards in the game.  They returned the opening kickoff for a TD and scored on a long run on their next possession that should have been a touchdown because they fumbled through the end zone.  They needed a goal line stand on Buffalo's final possession to cover, too.

Toledo sits at 5-0 in the conference with a two-game lead over Central Michigan and Northern Illinois in the West Division.  They have margin for error, and I could see them going through the motions against this pesky Eastern Michigan team that has been a cash cow as an underdog under head coach Chris Creighton.

I think it's time to 'buy low' on Eastern Michigan off a missleading 45-21 loss to Western Michigan last time out.  That game was played on October 28th, so they have had extra time to rest and prepare for Toledo.  They have three extra days than the Rockets do.  The Eagles were 4-0 ATS in their four previous games.  I trust in Creighton to use this extra time wisely to come up with the proper game plan to keep this one competitive.

Each of the last two meetings in this series were decided by 3 points, and five of the last six have been decided by 5 points or fewer.  Toledo hasn't beaten Eastern Michigan by more than 17 points in any of the last seven meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the Eagles pertaining to this 19-point spread.

Creighton is 30-15 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Eastern Michigan.  Creighton is 15-6 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points.  Creighton is 16-4 ATS in road games off a conference loss.  Creighton is 8-1 ATS following a game where they committed four or more turnovers.  Jason Candle is 4-17 ATS following a conference home win as the coach of Toledo.  The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play last game.  Bet Eastern Michigan Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan -3

Western Michigan has the rest and preparation advantage here over Central Michigan.  They last played on October 28th, while Central Michigan last played on October 31st.  I think the Chippewas are overvalued here after upsetting Northern Illinois 37-31 at home.  That was the aberration because they had been playing terribly prior to that upset win.

The Chippewas had gone 0-4 ATS in their previous four games.  They lost 24-17 at Ball State as 5-point favorites, only beat Akron 17-10 as 10.5-point home favorites, lost 37-13 at Buffalo as 2.5-point favorites and only beat Eastern Michigan by 3 as 10-point home favorites.  They struggled against all of the worst teams in the MAC during that stretch.

Now they have to go on the road to face a rested Western Michigan team that is quietly playing well right now.  They are coming off a 45-21 win at Eastern Michigan as a 3-point favorite.  They took Ohio to the wire as 16.5-point road dogs in a 20-17 loss the game prior.  They gave Miami Ohio all they could handle the game prior.  They covered in a 28-41 loss at Missisippi State as 21.5-point dogs.  They blasted Ball State 42-24 as 1.5-point favorites.  They also covered in a loss at Toledo and deserved to cover in a loss at Iowa.  They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and should be 6-1 ATS their last seven, so they are a way undervalued commodity.

Central Michigan lacks a passing game averaging just 180.3 passing yards per game.  They rush for 159.4 yards per game and 4.1 per carry and rank 101st in the country in total offense.  Western Michigan allows 141.6 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry and can stop the run pretty well.  The Broncos average 170 rushing yards per game on offense and will be up against a CMU defense that ranks 110th in the country allowing 4.8 yards per carry.  They also have more balance with 211 passing yards per game, and are up against a CMU defense that ranks 115th against the pass and 118th at 8.2 yards per attempt.

WMU has played six road games and only three home games.  They are 2-1 at home this season.  CMU is 1-4 on the road compared to 4-0 at home.  The Broncos cannot afford another loss if they want to get bowl eligible and have a legit shot to run the table.  It starts with a home win over Central Michigan tonight.  Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.

15* Miami/NC State ACC ANNIHILATOR on NC State +4.5

The Miami Hurricanes are one of the most overvalued teams in the country right now.  They should not be favored on the road over the NC State Wolfpack Saturday night.  We'll gladly take this value and take these points in a game I think NC State wins outright.

Miami opened 4-0 against a soft schedule, but has since gone 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS and were fortunate to cover in the lone game they did.  They lost 23-20 at home to Georgia Tech as 19-point favorites which started this skid.  They then lost 31-41 at UNC as 2.5-point dogs.  They beat Clemson 28-20 at home as 5.5-point dogs, and Clemson is down this season.  And they were life and death with Virginia in a 29-26 (OT) win as 18.5-point home favorites last week.  They were outgained 377 to 276 by Virginia, or by 101 total yards.

NC State has played very well at home of late.  They are coming off a 24-17 win as 10-point home dogs to Clemson last week.  They had a bye prior to that game, so they will still be fresh here.  Miami will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and is running out of gas.  NC State also beat Marshall 48-41 as 6.5-point home favorites.  They only lost 13-10 to Louisville as 3.5-point dogs, and Louisville is 7-1 this season and a ACC title contender.

Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 conference games.  Mario Cristobal is 0-7 ATS in the last seven games vs. teams that allow 58% or higher completions as the coach of Miami. Cristobal is 2-12 ATS when playing with 6 or less days' rest as the coach of Miami.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* Washington/USC ABC ANNIHILATOR on Washington -3

USC is now 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 100.5 points, or an average of 16.8 points per game.  They only beat Arizona State by 14, Colorado by 7 and Arizona by 2 before losing by 28 to Notre Dame.  The Trojans have played such a soft schedule this season and finally met their match against Notre Dame.

They have since lost outright by 2 at home as 7-point favorites against Utah and were life and death with Cal as 10-point favorites, escaping with a 1-point victory.  Now USC will face its stiffest test of the season against unbeaten Washington, and the Trojans are once again getting too much respect as only 3-point home dogs.

We are getting Washington at a discount because they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games against Arizona State and Stanford.  But the Huskies were in a massive letdown spot following the home win over Oregon the game prior.  No question a team like USC is going to get their attention, and I think we can expect Washington's best effort this week.  Especially after they didn't even open in the Top 4 in the college football playoff rankings, which will add to their motivation to try and get some national recognition on this Nationally televised game on ABC Saturday night.

Washington has the better offense and the better defense in this matchup.  The Huskies average 8.0 yards per play on offense and allow 5.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.7 yards per play.  The Trojans average 7.5 yards per play on offense and allow 5.9 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.  The Trojans also allow 32.6 points per game while the Huskies only allow 20.6 points per game.

Washington had a bye prior to the Oregon game and will only be playing for a 4th consecutive week here.  USC is a tired team playing for a 7th consecutive week.  The defense is gassed playing in shootout after shootout and won't have anything left in the tank for this Washington offense.  The Trojans have allowed 49, 34, 48, 41 and 41 points in their last five games, respectively.  Bet Washington Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -1

The Iowa State Cyclones have quietly gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to Oklahoma.  They beat Oklahoma State 34-27 at home, beat TCU 27-14 at home, beat Cincinnati 30-10 on the road and beat Baylor 30-18 on the road.  The Cyclones just seem to play better when expectations are low, and they are flying under the radar right now.

This will be a great atmosphere with a sold out crowd at Jack Trice Stadium for a 7:00 EST kickoff Saturday night.  The Cyclones want revenge from a 14-11 loss at Kansas last year in one of the most misleading losses of the season.  They outgained Kansas 323 to 215, or by 108 total yards, but lost by 3.  They were last seen beating Kansas 59-7 in their last home meeting.  They will be going for their 6th win of the season for bowl eligibility and are tied for 1st place in the Big 12, so they won't be lacking any motivation.

The spot couldn't be worse for Kansas.  They are coming off their first win over Oklahoma since 1997.  It was their first regular season win over a Top 10 opponent since 1995, and their first win over a Top 10 opponent in Lawrence since 1984.  It was a historic win for Kansas and head coach Lance Leipold as they are now bowl eligible for a second consecutive season.  This has letdown spot written all over it for the Jayhawks.

The Sooners have been trending in the wrong direction since beating Texas.  They escaped with a 2-point win over UCF at home the previous week needing to stop a 2-point conversion.  Their luck ran out last week against Kansas, so the win wasn't as impressive as it looked on paper.  The Sooners also helped give them the game by committing three turnovers.

There is a huge discrepancy between these two defenses.  Iowa State plays defense and Kansas doesn't.  The Cyclones allow 19.8 points per game, 330 yards per game and 4.8 per play this season to rank 28th in total defense, 24th in scoring defense and 20th in yards per play allowed.  Kansas ranks 89th in scoring defense allowing 28.1 points per game, 100th in total defense at 401.6 yards per game and 100th with 6.0 yards per play allowed.

Kansas has not fared well on the road this season going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in true road games.  They only beat Nevada 31-24 as a 28-point road favorite, and Nevada is one of the worst teams in all of college football.  They lost 40-14 at Texas as 15.5-point dogs in a game that wasn't even that close.  They allowed 661 yards to Texas.  And they lost 39-32 at Oklahoma State as 2.5-point favorites while giving up 554 total yards to the Cowboys.

Kansas is now 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in its last six Big 12 road games dating back to last season with all six losses coming by 7 points or more.  Kansas hasn't won at Iowa State since 2008.  Plays against road underdogs (Kansas) - off an upset conference win as an underdog of 6 points or more against an opponent that is off a double-digit road win are 60-28 (68.2%) ATS since 1992.  Matt Campbell is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 8.5 or more yards per attempt as the coach of the Cyclones.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah State -2.5

Both Utah State and San Diego State sit at 3-5 this season.  But these records are now created equal.  Utah State is unfortunate to be 3-5, while San Diego State is fortunate to be 3-5.  When you look at the numbers, there's a big difference between these teams and Utah State is favored on the road here for good reason.

Brady Hoke is used to competing for Mountain West titles but he has lost his touch.  It's unlikely he'll be back after this season, and this just looks like a dead Aztecs team right now.  They are coming off a 6-0 home loss to Nevada, which is one of the worst teams in all of college football.  They were life and death the game prior against Hawaii and were fortunate to win that game considering Hawaii had 480 total yards but committed four costly turnovers.  And the week prior they were flat as a pancake in a 49-10 loss at Air Force.

Utah State played Air Force much tougher than San Diego State did.  They also took both James Madison and Fresno State to the wire, which are the top two teams in the Sun Belt and Mountain West, respectively.  I know the Aggies are going to show up every week for head coach Gary Anderson as he gets the most out of his teams.

Let's look at the numbers to see why Utah State is by far the superior team.  The Aggies are averaging 35.3 points pre game, 451 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play on offense while allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining opponents by 0.9 yards per play.

San Diego State is gaining just 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.3 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play.  The Aztecs have a terrible offense every year and this season has been no exception, averaging just 19.6 points per game.  The difference is they usually have a great defense, but this is their worst defense in over a decade.  They allow 28.1 points per game, 419 yards per game and 6.3 per play this season.  Most alarming is the 5.0 yards per carry they are giving up on the ground.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Utah State last won 46-13 at San Diego State in 2021.  The Aztecs will have zero home-field advantage for this one as fans just aren't supporting this 3-5 team.  They were fortunate to win their first two home games this season against Ohio and Idaho State by a single score.  They have since lost their last three home games by 25 to UCLA, by 3 to Boise State and that shutout loss to Nevada.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota ML -125

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are tied for first place in the Big Ten West and playing their best football of the season right now.  They upset Iowa in Iowa City two weeks ago while limiting the Hawkeyes to just 127 total yards and forcing three turnovers.  They avoided the letdown last week, winning 27-12 at home against Michigan State while outgaining them by 101 yard and holding them to 299 yards.

They certainly won't let down against Illinois here.  Illinois was in Big Ten West title contention last year, but now they are just trying to make a bowl game and finding it hard to be motivated right now sitting at 3-5 on the season.  They are coming off a heartbreaking home loss to Wisconsin where they blew it late in the 4th quarter, and it will be hard for them to get back up off the mat now.

Illinois has been grossly overvalued all season after what they did last year and continue to be this week as basically a PK against Minnesota on the road.  Illinois is 1-7 ATS in their eight games this season.  That includes a 44-19 loss at Purdue, a 6-point win home win over a bad FAU team as 16-point favorites, and an upset home loss to Nebraska by 17.

The team that runs the football with more success is going to win this game.  That team is going to be Minnesota.  The Gophers average 175 rushing yards per game and hold opponents to just 118 rushing yards per game.  Illinois averages just 137 rushing yards per game and allows 161 rushing yards per game.  The Fighting Illini aren't nearly as dominant on the ground as they were last season, which is the biggest reason for their demise this season.  Bet Minnesota on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Missouri/Georgia SEC ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +16

The Missouri Tigers are a legit SEC East title contender this season and clearly the 2nd-best team in the division.  Now they are out to prove it this weekend against the Georgia Bulldogs.  The spot couldn't be better for the Tigers as they are coming off a bye week and have had two full weeks to prepare for the defending champs.

The spot couldn't be much worse for Georgia, coming off a 43-20 win over their biggest rivals in the Florida Gators last week.  That now makes this a flat spot for the Bulldogs.  We saw this play out last year as Missouri nearly upset Georgia, losing 26-22 as 31-point home dogs.  They proved they could play with Georgia last year, and now Missouri is better this year while Georgia is down.

That has been evident with the Bulldogs going 2-5-1 ATS in their eight games this season.  They only beat South Carolina by 10, Auburn by 7 and Vanderbilt by 17.  They just have a way of playing up or down to their competition.  Those are three of the worst teams in the SEC and the Bulldogs were in dog fights with all three of them.

Missouri is very close to being 8-0 this season.  They blew a late 4-point lead to LSU, and that loss doesn't look too bad now with how well LSU is playing.  They beat South Carolina by 22 at home, Kentucky by 17 on the road and Vanderbilt by 17 on the road.  They also upset Kansas State at home, and Kansas State is playing very well right now.  

The Tigers have elite numbers averaging 6.7 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play. They have also played a much tougher schedule than Georgia ranking 51st in SOS while Georgia ranks 81st in SOS.  This will be Georgia's stiffest test of the season thus far, and not having TE Brock Bowers may really hurt them this week as he was Carson Beck's favorite target.  Bowers leads the team with 41 receptions for 567 yards and 4 TD.

Kerby Smart is 1-8 ATS in home games off three straight conference wins as the coach of Georgia.  The Bulldogs are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games off three straight conference wins.  Georgia is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a cover as a double-digit favorite.  The Bulldogs are 4-16 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. excellent passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game.  Bet Missouri Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +10

Virginia Tech is a team on the rise and flying under the radar going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Hokies crushed Pittsburgh 38-21 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining the Panthers 427 to 273, or by 154 total yards.  The Hokies covered in a 17-39 loss at Florida State as 24-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score showed, only getting outgained by 139 yards against what looks to be a national title contender in the Seminoles.  

The Hokies then crushed Wake Forest 30-13 two weeks ago and outgained the Demon Deacons 463 to 262, or by 201 total yards.  And last week they crushed Syracuse 38-10 while outgaining the Orange 528 to 138, or by 390 total yards.  That game was played on Thursday so the Hokies have extra time to rest and prepare for Louisville this Saturday.

The key to Virginia Tech's resurgence has been great defense and the play of their quarterback.  Kyron Drones took over for an injured Grant Wells and it was a blessing in disguise for the Hokies.  Drones is completing 59% of his passes for 1,236 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/NT ratio, while also rushing for 400 yards and 4 scores.  His dual-threat ability makes this offense much more dynamic.

The Hokies have what it takes to be competitive against Louisville, which I think is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Cardinals are 7-1 against a very soft schedule up to this point.  Their 38-21 loss to Pittsburgh just shows how vulnerable this team can be.  Pittsburgh went on to lose to a bad Wake Forest team and to get blasted 58-7 by Notre Dame.  Keep in mind Louisville was in dog fights against both NC State and Indiana earlier this season as well.  This one will go down to the wire.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State +11

I've been very impressed with Arizona State in recent weeks against quality competition.  The Sun Devils have gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs.  They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards.  They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards.  They should have won both of those games.

The Sun Devils returned from their bye and I released them as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR as +28.5 dogs at Washington.  They delivered in a big way and went into halftime with a 7-3 lead.  They would have pulled off the outright upset if not for an 89-yard INT return for a TD by Washington in the 4th quarter when they were going in for a score to try and take and 8-point lead.

No other defense has held Heisman Trophy contender Michael Penix Jr. in check like Arizona State did.  He went just 27-of-42 passing for 275 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt.  Most felt Washington had the best offense in the country coming into that game.

I was back on Arizona State +6 last week as they pulled the 38-27 upset victory over Washington State at home while racking up 509 total yards on the Cougars.  And now I'm back on ASU again this week as this team just continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers due to their misleading 2-6 record.

But this is a play against Utah as much as anything.  The Utes won the Pac-12 Championship each of the last two seasons and are used to contending for conference titles.  Well, they are all but eliminated from title contention now after losing 35-6 at home to Oregon last week.  That was a rare home loss for the Utes, and it just shows how far they have fallen this season by not having a legit QB and with all the injuries they have sustained.

Asking Utah to get margin and win by double-digits against ASU with their current offense is asking too much.  Oregon held Utah to just 241 total yards.  Oregon State held Utah to 210 total yards.  UCLA held Utah to 219 total yards.  Utah is actually getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play on the season, while ASU is dead even, averaging 5.2 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 per play on defense.  They have been even better since getting healthy in Pac-12 play.  Utah is overvalued due to his misleading 6-2 record.

Arizona State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall while covering the spread by a combined 66 points in those five games.  They remain grossly undervalued here as double-digit road dogs to a Utah team that is going to be flat after being eliminated from Pac-12 title contention with that loss to Oregon.  This is also an early start time at 2:00 EST which isn't nearly as big of a home-field advantage for Utah as when games are played in Salt Lake City at night.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* Texas A&M/Ole Miss ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss -3

Ole Miss sits at 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS this season with a legit chance to win the SEC West.  The Rebels are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season with a massive home-field advantage.  They should be more than 3-point home favorites over the disappointing Texas A&M Aggies today.

Texas A&M sits at 5-3 and out of SEC title contention.  They were lackluster in their 30-17 home win over a bad, injury-ravaged South Carolina team last week.  And I don't expect them to fire here against Ole Miss, either.  After all, the Aggies are now 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight true road games.  They lost 48-33 at Miami and 20-13 at Tennessee in their only two true road games this season.

Ole Miss beat LSU at home earlier this season to show what they are capable of at home.  They put up 55 points and 716 total yards on the Tigers in that contest.  Their defense has been very good this season, holding opponents to 21.4 points per game and 5.0 yards per play.  Texas A&M struggles on offense this season, especially since losing QB Conner Weigman to injury.  Ole Miss is basically fully healthy coming into this one and one of the most healthy teams in the country.

Jimbo Fisher is 1-12 ATS vs. teams that commit 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game as a head coach.  Fisher is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less as the coach of Texas A&M having never covered in this situation.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Boston College/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on Boston College ML +125

These are two teams trending in opposite directions but the oddsmakers and betting public haven't caught up to it yet.  Boston College is on the rise and currently a better football team than Syracuse, which has hit a wall in the 2nd half of the season as usual under Dino Babers. Boston College should not be an underdog to Syracuse Friday night.

Syracuse opened 4-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the country with wins over Colgate, Western Michigan and Army at home as well as a rebuilding Purdue team on the road.  They have since stepped up in class and fallen flat on their faces, going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in thier last four games.  They lost 31-14 at home to Clemson, 40-7 at North Carolina, 41-3 at Florida State and 38-10 at Virginia Tech.  The Orange were outscored a combined 140-34 in those four defeats.  They are dead in the water right now and lacking motivation to finish out the season.

Meanwhile, Boston College is 4-0 in its last four games overall to get to 5-3 on the season and just one win away from bowl eligibility.  The Eagles have held four straight opponents to 24 points or fewer.  BC QB Thomas Castellanos will be the best player on the field.  He is completing 59% of his passes for 1,549 yards with an 11-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 673 yards and 9 TD while averaging 5.4 per carry.  He leads a BC offense that is averaging 28.1 points per game, 420 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  

Keep in mind BC gave Florida State their toughest test of the season in a 2-point home loss (31-29) to the Seminoles.  To compare, Syracuse was blasted 41-3 by the Seminoles.  They followed that up by getting outgained 528 to 138 by the Hokies last week, or by 390 total yards.  That was the final nail in their coffin, and I don't expect them to get back up off the mat tonight in time to face BC.

Syracuse is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  Bet Boston College on the Money Line Friday.

20* South Alabama/Troy ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Troy -5

The Troy Trojans are quietly playing as well as any Group of 5 team in the country right now.  Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season.  The Trojans have since gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS and should have covered in all five games.

They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards.  They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Panthers 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards.  They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards.  They beat Army 19-0 and outgained them 449 to 256, or by 193 total yards.  And last week they beat Texas State 31-13 as 6.5-point road favorites.

The Trojans have elite numbers this season averaging 442 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense while allowing 304 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play on defense.  They are outgaining their opponents by 138 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.  Now they are home here against a South Alabama team they have owned, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while outscoring them by an average of 17.0 points per game in the five wins.

South Alabama is down this season.  They have a couple very bad losses to Central Michigan outright as 16.5-point home favorites and Louisiana outright by 13 as 12-point home favorites.  QB Carter Bradley exited the Louisiana game last week with a knee injury, and he is very questionable to play this week.  Having Bradley at anything less than 100% gives the Jaguars almost zero chance of being competitive in this game.  He is completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,156 yards with a 13-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season.

Troy is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 conference games.  South Alabama is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Trojans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more yards per attempt.  The Trojans are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play.  Bet Troy Thursday.

20* TCU/Texas Tech FS1 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -3

Texas Tech is coming off two misleading losses in a row that are providing us with some line value on the Red Raiders as only 3-point favorites here against a down TCU team.  We'll take advantage as this is the perfect spot to 'buy low' on the Red Raiders in what will be a tremendous atmosphere Thursday night at home in Lubbock.

Texas Tech lost 38-21 at home to Kansas State two games back despite outgaining the Wildcats 480 to 435, or by 45 total yards.  The Red Raiders lost 27-14 at BYU last time out despite outgaining the Cougars 389 to 227, or by 112 total yards.  They also played 3rd-string QB Jake Strong in both of those games, and he threw 6 interceptions while the Red Raiders lost the turnover battle a combined 8-0 in those two games.

But now the Red Raiders get back their best quarterback in Behren Morton from a two-game absence.  Morton has an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season and is a big upgrade over Strong.  They beat Houston 49-28 and Baylor 39-14 in their last two games with Morton under center.

TCU lost starting QB Chandler Morris to a season-ending injury in a 27-14 loss at Iowa State.  They were able to win without him against BYU at home the next week, but then were blasted 41-3 at Kansas State last week.  Backup Josh Hoover just isn't as good.  He is completing 59.3% of his passes, averaging 6.5 per attempt with a 6-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  Hoover doesn't give them anything in the run game unlike Morris, who is a dual-threat and averaged 5.5 per carry.

This TCU defense isn't very good.  They allowed 41 points and 587 total yards to Kansas State last week, and the Wildcats don't have that potent of an offense.  They did whatever they wanted to against TCU, rushing for 343 yards and throwing for 244.

The Red Raiders led TCU 17-13 going into the 4th quarter last year but let it slip away in what was a perfect regular season for the Horned Frogs, who eventually lost to Georgia in the National Championship.  They want revenge from that game, which will add to their motivation.  After playing for so much more last year, I question how motivated the Horned Frogs will be the rest of the way now that they sit at 4-4 on the season and out of Big 12 title contention.

Texas Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a road loss.  The Red Raiders are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse.  Texas Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a conference road loss.  TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 525 or more yards in its previous game.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

15* Ball State/Bowling Green ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -5

Bowling Green is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Falcons have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with double-digit wins over Georgia Tech by 10, Buffalo by 10 and Akron by 27.  That win over Georgia Tech looks really good now after the Yellow Jackets upset both UNC and Miami.

Ball State is one of the worst teams in the country.  The Cardinals are 2-6 this season scoring just 16.1 points per game and averaging 295 yards per game on offense.  They don't have the firepower to keep up with Bowling Green.  The Falcons also have the better defense in this one limiting opponents to 25.0 points per game and 331 yards per game, while the Cardinals allow 29.0 points per game and 362 yards per game.

Ball State has some really concerning losses of late.  They lost 40-3 at home to Georgia Southern.  They lost 42-24 at Western Michgian, which is one of the worst teams in the country.  They lost 24-10 at Eastern Michigan, which is also one of the worst teams in the country.  Their lone win in their last five games came against Central Michigan at home by 7, and CMU is also one of the worst teams in the country.

The Cardinals are 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS on the road this season, scoring just 12.8 points per game and allowing 38.8 points per game, getting outscored by 26.0 points per game away from home.  Bowling Green is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a home game.  Bet Bowling Green Wednesday.

15* Buffalo/Toledo ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +16

Toledo is grossly overvalued right now due to its 7-1 record.  The Rockets just have a way of playing to their competition, which is why they are 6-0 SU but just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have played some of the very worst teams in all of college football close during this span.

Toledo beat San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Western Michigan by 18 as 21.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites, UMass by 17 as 19-point road favorites, Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites and Miami Ohio by 4 as 2-point road favorites.  As you can see, most of their games have come down to the wire, and that will be the case tonight against Buffalo.

Buffalo is a team I was fading a lot early in the season, but I have come around to them of late.  The Bulls are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only lost by 7 as Louisiana as 10.5-point road dogs, won outright as dogs at Akron, crushed Central Michigan 37-13 as home dogs, lost by 10 to Bowling Green as 3-point favorites and beat Kent State by 18 as 6.5-point road favorites.  Keep in mind Bowling Green beat Georgia Tech on the road, and Georgia Tech has beaten both Miami and UNC.

Buffalo pulled the outright upset 34-27 as 7-point home dogs against Toledo last season.  They can hang on the road in the rematch here as 16-point dogs.  Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games played on turf.  Toledo is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  The Rockets almost never cover in this price range and haven't all season.  Bet Buffalo Tuesday.

15* UNLV/Fresno State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +7.5

UNLV is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season with its lone loss at Michigan and a legit contender to win the Mountain West.  There will be no letdown this week with a meeting with defending MWC champion Fresno State.  I expect another big effort from the Rebels this week, and it should be good enough to stay within one score of the Bulldogs and possibly pull off the upset here.

Fresno State has a big problem right now at quarterback.  Mikey Keene missed the last game with injuries to both of his legs and is highly questionable to return this week.  Keene is completing 68.5% of his passes for 1,692 yards with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio.  He is a big upgrade over backup Logan Fife, who could be forced into action again here.

Fresno State is fortunate to be 6-1 with three wins already by 5 points or less.  The only teams they got margin on were two of the worst teams in all of college football in Kent State and Nevada.  They just shouldn't be this big of a favorite over a team the caliber of UNLV.  QB Jayden Maiava is one of the top recruits in program history and is living up to the hype.  He is completing 64.9% of his passes and averaging 8.5 per attempt, while also rushing for 142 yards and 4.6 per carry.

UNLV was not very good each of the last two seasons and still played Fresno State to a one-score game in both while covering the spread with ease each time.  This one will be decided by one score either way, too.

Plays on road underdogs (UNLV) - off two consecutive games where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent that committed one or fewer turnovers in two consecutive games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet UNLV Saturday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona State +6

I've been very impressed with Arizona State in recent weeks against quality competition.  The Sun Devils have gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs.  They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards.  They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards.  They should have won both of those games.

The Sun Devils returned from their bye last week and I release them as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR as +28.5 dogs at Washington.  They delivered in a big way and went into halftime with a 7-3 lead.  They would have pulled off the outright upset if not for an 89-yard INT return for a TD by Washington in the 4th quarter when they were going in for a score to try and take and 8-point lead.

No other defense has held Heisman Trophy contender Michael Penix Jr. in check like Arizona State did.  He went just 27-of-42 passing for 275 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt.  Most felt Washington had the best offense in the country coming into that game.

It's safe to say the Sun Devils are motivated for their first Pac-12 victory after coming so close in all four conference games thus far.  I think they catch a Washington State team here that they can handle.  Washington State lost 25-17 at UCLA, 44-6 at home to Arizona and 38-24 at Oregon in its last three games coming in.  The Cougars have rushed for a total of 104 yards in those three losses combined, so they are clearly only reliant on throwing to move the football.  That makes this a great matchup for this ASU defense, which has schemed well against the pass in recent weeks.

This Washington State defense has not been good at all, allowing 438 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.  The Cougars allow 162 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry as well as 276 passing yards per game and 7.4 per attempt.  Arizona State wants to run the ball and will be able to do so.  Arizona State's defense allows 26.4 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  The Sun Devils are holding opponents 1.1 yards per play below their season averages.  I'll gladly side with the much better defense as a home underdog here.

Washington State is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 road games following a conference road loss.  Arizona State is 18-3 ATS in its last 21 games vs. terrible rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE WEEK on Old Dominion +20.5

James Madison is 7-0 and just got ranked inside the Top 25 which is a huge accomplishment as a program.  That makes this a massive letdown spot for the Dukes, who are fat and happy right now and getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to that 7-0 record, but especially after going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Dukes, who have been fortunate in close games this season winning four of their seven games by 8 points or less, or by one score.  Another win came by 11 points.  Asking them to beat Old Dominion by three touchdowns or more to beat us is asking too much.

Old Dominion has quietly gone 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall and is flying under the radar even with that perfect 5-0 ATS record.  The Monarchs haven't lost a game by more than 19 points all season.  The two recent losses were impressive losing by 3 to Wake Forest as 14-point dogs and by 6 at Marshall as 14.5-point dogs.

Old Dominion pulled the 38-31 upset win over Louisiana as 6-point home dogs, pulled the 17-13 upset as 3-point road dogs at Southern Miss, and pulled the 28-21 upset as 6-point home dogs to Appalachian State last week.  The Monarchs had a bye prior to that win over Appalachian State, so they should still be very fresh for this game this weekend.

Old Dominion quietly has great numbers this season averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play despite playing a tougher schedule than James Madison.  The Dukes have great numbers as well outgaining opponents by 1.5 yards per play, but that margin doesn't warrant them being anywhere near a 20.5-point favorite here.

Old Dominion is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good passing teams that complete 62% or better.  Plays on road underdogs (Old Dominion) - following two consecutive games where they committed zero turnovers against an opponent off two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

15* Troy/Texas State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy -4.5

The Troy Trojans are quietly playing as well as any Group of 5 team in the country right now.  Following a pair of early losses to Kansas State and James Madison, Troy is back to playing like the team that won the Sun Belt last season.  The Trojans have since gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS and should have covered in all four games.

They beat Western Kentucky 27-24 in a misleading final as they outgained Western Kentucky 521 to 288, or by 233 total yards.  They beat Georgia State 28-7 as 1-point road dogs and outgained the Panthers 410 to 298, or by 112 total yards.  They beat Arkansas State 37-3 as 15.5-point home favorites and outgained them 587 to 203, or by 384 total yards.  Then last time out they beat Army 19-0 and outgained them 449 to 256, or by 193 total yards.

Texas State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 5-2 record, but the Bobcats have played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  Their last four wins have come against Jackson State, Nevada, Southern MIss and LA-Monroe.  They struggled to get separation with an 11-point win over Nevada, a 14-point win over Southern Miss and a 1-point win over LA-Monroe.  This team just isn't as good as their record, while Troy is much better than its record.

Troy is gaining 6.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 2.0 yards per play.  Texas State is at 6.8 yards per play on offense and 5.6 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play.  But that's not that impressive when you consider they have played the 116th toughest-schedule in the country while Troy has played the 67th.

Both teams have very good offenses, but the big difference here is the defenses.  Troy allows 285 yards per game and 4.6 per play.  Texas State allows 410 yards per game and 5.6 per play, including 162 rushing yards per game and 248 passing yards per game.  Troy is going to be able to do whatever it wants to on offense, and the Trojans will get enough stops on defense to win this game by a TD or more.

Troy is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games.  Texas State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after outgaining its last opponent by 125 or more yards.  The Trojans are 13-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Trojans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games following a bye week.  

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State/UL-Monroe OVER 56.5

My handicap on football totals always starts with checking the weather.  The forecast looks perfect for a shootout at Louisiana-Monroe Saturday night with temps in the 80's, only a 10% chance of precipitation and single-digit winds.

These are two of the worst defenses in the country.  Monroe ranks 124th out of 133 teams in total defense at 449.3 yards per game and 116th in scoring at 32.7 points per game allowed.  Arkansas State has been even worse, ranking 128th at 456.4 yards per game, 128th at 6.5 yards per play and 125th in scoring at 35.1 points per game.

I like taking OVERS later in the season between two bad teams with little to play for because there tends to be a care-free attitude and it usually favors offense over defense.  When Arkansas State has taken a step down in class recently, shootouts have ensued.

Arkansas State went for 81 combined points in a 44-37 home win over Southern Miss.  The Red Wolves went for 80 combined points in a 52-28 win at UMass their next time out.  This is a step down in class for them here after facing Troy and Coastal Carolina in their last two games and having their offense held in check.

Three of Monroe's last four games have seen 81, 66 and 62 combined points to easily top this 56.5-point total.  This is a big step down in class for this Monroe offense after facing a gauntlet of opposing defenses in their last five games.  Look for them to bust out with one of their best offensive performances of the season against this Arkansas State defense.

Last year, Arkansas State beat Monroe 45-28 for 73 combined points in a game with a similar total of 58.  Six of the last eight meetings in this series have seen 61 or more combined points.  The books have once again set this total too low.

Terry Bowden is 11-2 OVER in Weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of the Warhawks.  Monroe is 12-3 OVER in its last 15 home games following three of more consecutive losses.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Pittsburgh/Notre Dame NBC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +21

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are coming off a very satisfying 48-20 home win over the USC Trojans.  But USC basically gave that game away by committing 5 turnovers.  Notre Dame somehow scored 48 points despite just 251 total yards of offense.  Multiple defensive touchdowns and short fields were the difference as their offense didn't need to do much.

After having a 13-to-0 TD/IN ratio through the first four games of the season, Sam Hartman has regressed for Notre Dame.   He has a 5-to-3 TD/INT ratio in his last four starts since taking a step up in class with matchups with Ohio State, Duke, Louisville and USC.  Now they face another very good defense here in Pitt.

While Notre Dame is coming off a misleading blowout of an overrated USC team, Pittsburgh is coming off a misleading 17-21 loss at Wake Forest following their 38-21 upset of Louisville, giving these teams a common opponent.  Notre Dame lost 33-20 at Louisville.  Pitt outgained Wake Forest 414 to 323, or by 91 total yards.  The Panthers will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face rival Notre Dame this week.

The switch at quarterback has yielded great results for the Panthers through two games.  Christian Veilleux has thrown for 502 yards with a 4-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last two games since being named the starter against Louisville and Wake Forest.  He has given this previously dead offense some new life.

Pitt allows just 5.0 yards per play this season against teams that average 5.7 yards per play.  Pitt allows just 131 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry this season, so they have been great against the run.  They will be able to slow down Notre Dame's rushing attack in this one, which will help them stay within the number in what is expected to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Virginia +19

Virginia is a much better team than its 2-5 record would indicate.  The Cavaliers have three losses by 3 points or less this season and a misleading loss to Maryland.  They showed just how underrated they were last week by going on the road to North Carolina and upsetting the Tar Heels 31-27 as 24-point dogs.  There was nothing fluky at all about that win as the Cavaliers had 439 total yards and were actually -1 in turnovers.

With three winnable home games still on the horizon, the Cavaliers could still make a bowl game if they pull another road upset here.  At the very least, there's value on the Cavaliers as 19-point road dogs to a fragile Miami Hurricanes team that they just seem to play tough every year.

Miami is in a tough spot here coming off back-to-back games against North Carolina and Clemson which followed up their 23-20 upset home loss to Georgia Tech as 19-point favorites.  They went on to lose 41-31 at North Carolina as 2.5-point dogs and were never really in that game.  And last week's 28-20 (OT) win over Clemson was misleading as they managed just 362 total yards and were +2 in turnovers.  They celebrated that game like they won the National Championship, and I think they fall flat here against Virginia like they did in that upset loss to Georgia Tech.

Each of the last five meetings between Virginia and Miami were decided by 8 points or less, or by a single score.  Miami has only beaten Virginia by more than 19 points once in the last 13 meetings, and that was a 20-point win.  That makes for a 12-1 system backing the Cavaliers pertaining to this 19-point spread when you look at the recent head-to-head history.

Miami is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after committing one or fewer turnovers last game.  The Hurricanes are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games following a win.  Virginia is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game.  The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good passing teams that average 275 or more passing yards per game.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -4

I love the spot for Louisville this week.  They finally got a bye week to regroup and get healthy following their first loss of the season against Pittsburgh going into the bye.  You could see that loss coming a mile away, and I was on Pittsburgh +7.5 in that game because of the terrible spot.

Louisville was coming off a huge 33-20 upset win over Notre Dame the previous week.  They simply had a letdown and really beat themselves more than anything in a 38-21 loss at Pitt.  It was a misleading loss as Louisville outgained Pitt 444 to 305, or by 139 total yards, but they were -3 in turnovers including an 86-yard INT return for a TD when they were going in to take the lead late in the 3rd quarter.

Louisville will get back to playing the kind of football they were playing in that Notre Dame game when they are 6-0.  They still have everything in front of them as they try to win a ACC title.  The Cardinals have dominant numbers this season outgaining opponents by 142 yards per game while averaging 6.8 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.

The spot is much worse for Duke.  The Blue Devils are coming off a 38-20 road loss at Florida State last week and were dominated in the box score.  They were outgained 420 to 273, or by 147 yards by the Seminoles.  QB Riley Leonard made his return from injury but clearly wasn't healed and re-injured his ankle in the loss while getting pulled from the game late.  He is highly questionable for this game, and having him at anything less than 100% will give Duke almost zero chance to be competitive in this one.

Louisville is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games, including 6-0 ATS in its last six games as home favorites.  The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Saturday home games as well.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas +7.5

The North Texas Mean Green are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and playing well.  They haven't lost any of their last six games by more than 7 points.  Each of their last three losses all came on the road by 7 points or less.  It was last week's 35-28 loss at Tulane as 20.5-point dogs that impressed me the most.

North Texas went toe-to-toe with the defending AAC champ and current AAC favorite in Tulane on the road.  They had 426 total yards while Tulane had 439 total yards, only getting outgained by 13 yards in what was a very close game throughout.

That gives these teams a common opponent.  Memphis lost 31-21 at home to Tulane as a 5-point dog while getting outgained 403 to 366, or by 37 yards.  And Memphis got to play Tulane at home while North Texas played them on the road.

I think Memphis is being overvalued off its 45-21 win at UAB last week against a backup QB for UAB.  That was a misleading final as UAB actually outgained Memphis 381 to 358, or by 23 total yards.  But UAB was -4 in turnovers which was the difference.

North Texas proved it could play with Memphis last year losing 44-34 on the road as 13-point dogs.  North Texas outgained Memphis 473 to 334, or by 139 total yards in what was a misleading loss.  North Texas was -2 in turnovers in that game.  Now they get the Tigers at home and as 7.5-point dogs to boot, making the Mean Green a very live underdog here.

Memphis is 10-25 ATS in its last 35 games following a double-digit road win.  North Texas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven October games.  Bet North Texas Saturday.

20* FAU/Charlotte ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Charlotte +4.5

I love Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi as he is one of the most energetic head coaches in the country.  His players absolutely love him and will go to war for him.  The 49ers are just 2-5 this season, but they have impressed me against some very good competition.  They only lost by 18 as 24.5-point dogs at Maryland, by 15 as 28-point dogs at Florida and by 18 as 22.5-point dogs at SMU.

Last week, I was on Charlotte +7.5 at East Carolina and they delivered the outright upset in a 10-7 win that was more dominant than the final score indicated.  They outgained ECU 325 to 127, or by 198 total yards.  They should have won by more, but they were -2 in turnovers and conditions were tough.  Clearly, their defense is better than it gets credit for.

Now the 49ers play another struggling offense in the Florida Atlantic Owls.  FAU is just 3-4 SU this season with the three wins coming against bottom feeders in FCS Monmouth, Tulsa and South Florida.  Last week, FAU lost 36-10 at home to UTSA.  The Owls have now been held to 20 points or fewer in five of their last six games overall.  It's tough to trust them to lay any kind of number on the road with that putrid of an offense.  It won't get any easier this week against a Charlotte defense that is allowing just 22.7 points per game this season despite playing a tougher schedule than FAU, which allows 25.0 points per game.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - after outgaining its last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 37-9 (80.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Charlotte Friday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -2.5

These are two teams trending in opposite directions but the oddsmakers and betting public haven't caught up to it yet.  Virginia Tech is on the rise and currently a better football team than Syracuse, which has hit a wall in the 2nd half of the season as usual under Dino Babers.  Virginia Tech needs to be more than a 2.5-point home favorite over Syracuse Thursday night.

Virginia Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  The Hokies crushed Pittsburgh 38-21 as 2.5-point home dogs while outgaining the Panthers 427 to 273, or by 154 total yards.  The Hokies covered in a 17-39 loss at Florida State as 24-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score showed, only getting outgained by 139 yards against what looks to be a national title contender in the Seminoles.  And last time out the Hokies crushed Wake Forest 30-13 and outgained the Demon Deacons 463 to 262, or by 201 total yards.

Syracuse opened 4-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the country with wins over Colgate, Western Michigan and Army at home as well as a rebuilding Purdue team on the road.  They have stepped up in class and fallen flat on their faces.  They lost 31-14 at home to Clemson, 40-7 at North Carolina and 41-3 at Florida State.  The Orange were outscored a combined 112-24 in those three defeats.  That 38-point loss at Florida State gives these teams a recent common opponent to compare where they're at right now.  The Orange were outgained 537 to 261, or by 276 total yards while VT only lost by 22 and were outgained by 139 yards.

The key to Virginia Tech's resurgence has been great defense and the play of their quarterback.  Kyron Drones took over for an injured Grant Wells and it was a blessing in disguise for the Hokies.  Drones is completing 58% of his passes for 1,042 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/NT ratio, while also rushing for 344 yards and 4 scores.  His dual-threat ability makes this offense much more dynamic.

Syracuse is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  Dino Babers is 1-9 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half of consecutive games as the coach of Syracuse.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday.

20* Jacksonville State/FIU C-USA No-Brainer on Florida International +8

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are in their first season as an FBS team making the move from the FCS.  They just accomplished a huge feat getting to 6-2 with a 20-17 upset win over Western Kentucky last week to get bowl eligible.  Now, I think the Gamecocks are in a huge letdown spot after accomplishing that feat and will be flat as a pancake Wednesday night against Florida International.

This is a very tough spot for the Gamecocks because of the letdown spot, plus the fact that they are a very tired team playing their 6th game in 33 days.  They have had a ton of midweek games this year to throw off their schedule, especially of late.  Meanwhile, Florida International will be playing just its 4th game in 32 days, a huge rest advantage for the home team.

Florida International sits at 4-4 this season and in need of a win here if they want to get bowl eligible themselves.  The Panthers have the big motivational and rest advantages that justify a play on them catching 8 points at home here.  Bet Florida International Wednesday.

15* New Mexico State/LA Tech C-USA ANNIHILATOR on New Mexico State +2.5

New Mexico State has aspirations of getting bowl eligible with a win tonight.  They also are very much alive in the Conference USA title race.  They have a bye one deck, so they will be 'all in' to get this win tonight and get bowl eligible.

Diego Pavia is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 61.9% of his passes for 1,801 yards with a 16-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  Pavia also leads the Aggies in rushing with 525 yards and 4 TD on 5.8 per carry.  From October-on last year, he had the best QBR of any QB in the country.  He is doing the same from October-on this year.

This New Mexico State defense is also underrated.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points in six of their last seven games with the lone exception being to Liberty, which is 7-0 and the best team in the conference.  I think they can shut town this LA Tech offense that has put up 24 or fewer points in five of eight games this year.  They topped that number against Northwestern State, North Texas and WKU only because of garbage time after falling behind 35-7 early.

LA Tech has allowed 28 or more points in four of their last five games.  The Bulldogs have a terrible defense and have gone 1-4 in their last five games with their lone win against a broken UTEP team that New Mexico State just blasted 28-7 last week.  LA Tech was actually outgained by UTEP in that contest.

The Aggies are going to have a big advantage on the ground in this one.  They rush for 202 yards per game and 6.1 per carry as a team.  LA Tech allows 199 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.

New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine October games.  The Aggies are 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Jerry Kill is 12-3 ATS in road games vs. a team with a losing record as a head coach.  Bet New Mexico State Tuesday.

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arizona State +28.5

This is a massive letdown spot for Washington.  They are come off their 'game of the year' beating Oregon 36-33 after the Ducks missed a last-second field goal.  They gave up 541 total yards to the Ducks and were outgained by 126 yards and arguably should have lost, but the ball bounced their way.

Heisman Trophy favorite Michael Penix Jr. was noticeably injured coming down the stretch of that game but he gutted it out.  There's a chance he doesn't play this week, and even if he does he won't be 100%.  The coaching staff will be cautious with him either way, and I don't think the Huskies have any incentive to get margin here.  They will be more than happy just getting out with a victory by any margin.

Now they must face an Arizona State team playing their best football of the season and fresh off a bye.  This is the 'game of the year' for the Sun Devils with a chance to knock off an unbeaten.  I've been very impressed with them in recent weeks against quality competition.

Arizona State has gotten healthier and only lost by 14 to USC as 34-point dogs, by 3 at Cal as 13-point dogs and by 3 at home to Colorado as 3-point dogs.  They outgained California 430 to 326, or by 104 yards.  They outgained Colorado 392 to 289, or by 103 yards.  They should have won both of those games, and will be champing at the bit to get a win coming off their bye.

Arizona State pulled the 45-38 upset as 13.5-point home dogs against Washington last season.  The Sun Devils are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, also pulling an outright upset as 17.5-point dogs.  Arizona State is 15-6 SU & 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings at Washington.  Washington hasn't beaten Arizona State by more than 26 points in any the last 25 meetings, making for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Sun Devils pertaining to this 28.5-point spread.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion +6.5

I love the spot for Old Dominion this week.  They are coming off a bye and I have been very impressed with what they have been able to do in what was expected to be a rebuilding year.  They have been an underdog in all five games and have managed to win two of them outright.

Old Dominion is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  It started with a 38-31 upset win over Louisiana as 6-point home dogs.  That Louisiana team looks like a Sun Belt title contender this season.  The Monarchs only lost 24-27 as 14-point home underdogs to Wake Forest and 35-41 as 14.5-point road dogs at Marshall.  Then they beat Southern Miss 17-13 as 3-point road dogs going into the bye.

Appalachian State has been very disappointing this season.  The Mountaineers are 3-3 with their three wins coming against Gardner Webb, a rebuilding East Carolina (1-5) team, and a 41-40 win as 13.5-point favorites over a terrible Louisiana-Monroe (2-4) team.   They also lost at Wyoming and were upset at home by Coastal Carolina coming into this one.

This Appalachian State defense just cannot be trusted to get margin.  The Mountaineers allow 30.2 points per game, 396.7 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  Compared that to Old Dominion, which allows just 5.1 yards per play, and it's easy to see which team has the better defense.  The Monarchs are holding opponents 0.5 yards per play less than their season averages, while the Mountaineers are allowing 0.9 yards per play more than their opponents typically average.  

Appalachian State has the better offense, but not by much as they average 6.1 yards per play while Old Dominion averages 5.9 yards per play.  Old Dominion is outgaining opponents by 0.8 yards per play while Appalachian State is dead even in net yards per play (6.1 to 6.1).  Plus, Old Dominion has played the tougher schedule to this point.

Appalachian State is 3-12 ATS in it last 15 games as a favorite.  The Mountaineers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games.  Appalachian State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after going under the total in its previous game.  Shawn Clark is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of Appalachian State.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

25* Mountain West TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Colorado State/UNLV OVER 61.5

UNLV is a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 4-0 in UNLV's last four games overall with 77, 73, 64 and 72 combined points.  They have an elite offense that scores 37.7 points per game while averaging 6.1 yards per play and a soft defense that allows 6.2 yards per play despite facing a very soft schedule up to this point.

Colorado State is also a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 5-0 in Colorado State's five games this season with 74, 78, 54, 68 and 61 combined points.  The 54-point game was a bad weather game at Middle Tennessee.  The Rams have an improved offense that has scored at least 24 points in every game, and a terrible defense that allows 38.0 points per game, 485 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.  This game will be played at a fast pace with Colorado State ranking 6th in the country in tempo at 21.2 seconds between plays and UNLV at 60th at 25.7 seconds.  Plus, UNLV has been protecting a lot of leads late and going a little slower in the second half.  They won't be able to do that against Colorado State and will have the pedal to the metal for four quarters.

UNLV is 10-0 OVER in its last 10 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Ohio +2

Both Toledo (6-1) and Miami Ohio (6-1) are in line to win the MAC this season.  This game has massive MAC title implications, and I'll gladly side with the home underdog here as I believe Miami is the better, more complete team.

Toledo is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall despite winning all five outright.  The Rockets have been fortunate in close games, beating San Jose State by 4 as 9.5-point home favorites, Northern Illinois by 2 as 13.5-point home favorites and Ball State by 7 as 17.5-point road favorites.  They also beat awful Western Michigan and UMass but failed to cover in both.

Conversely, Miami Ohio is 6-0 ATS & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall since losing at Miami in the opener.  That includes an upset road win at Cincinnati as 14-point dogs, and the Redhawks have been handling their business in all other game with the other five wins all coming by 13 points or more.

Miami has the better defense allowing 19.1 points per game, 333 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  Toledo has been slightly worse in all three categories.  But I feel the main difference is I trust QB Brett Gabbert over Toledo's Daquan Finn.  Gabbert has quietly been the best QB in the MAC this season, completing 61.4% of his passes for 1,455 yards with a 14-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.2 per attempt.  Finn averages 7.9 per attempt with a 12-to-5 ratio.

It is expected to be windy at Miami on Saturday.  I trust Miami Ohio's run defense more than that of Toledo as well.  Miami allows 133 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry, while Toledo allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  All of these are slight edges in Miami's favor, but they add up when you're talking about getting the home team as an underdog.  Bet Miami Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +7

I didn't expect to be betting on Kent State at any point this season.  But here we are.  I'm big on fading Buffalo because the Bulls are one of the very worst teams in all of college football.  And they have no business being favored by a touchdown on the road against anyone, not even Kent State.

Buffalo is 2-5 this season with some awful numbers.  The Bulls are averaging 323 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play and allowing 423 yards per game and 6.4 per play, getting outgained by 100 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play.

Kent State has very similar numbers to Buffalo and has played the much tougher schedule.  The Golden Flashes have already faced UCF, Arkansas, Fresno and Ohio on the road.  Kent State is getting outgained by 108 yards per game and by 1.6 yards per play.  These are much closer to even teams than this line would indicate.

Buffalo just lost 24-14 at home to Bowling Green last week and I was on Bowling Green in that game.  It should have been an even bigger blowout as the Bulls turned it over 5 times and were outgained by 62 yards.  

Kent State lost 28-14 at Eastern Michigan last week in a game they should have won.  They opened the game with an onside kick that was returned for a TD.  Kent State outgained Eastern MIchigan 343 to 218, or by 125 total yards, yet lost by 14.  It's a good 'buy low' spot on the Golden Flashes off that misleading defeat.

There's a 63% chance of rain with 15 MPH winds forecast, meaning this game is likely to be played on the ground.  That benefits Kent State.  Despite the tough schedule, Kent State only allows 164 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry.  Buffalo allows 197 rushing yards per game and 5.6 per carry.

Buffalo is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a conference loss.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kent State) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5

The weather forecast is a big reason I'm on this UNDER between Wisconsin and Illinois Saturday.  There are expected to be 22 MPH winds at Memorial Stadium with gusts upwards of 30.  That's going to force both of these teams to keep the ball on the ground, shortening the game and helping us cash this UNDER 42.5 ticket.

Wisconsin is definitely going to want to keep the ball on the ground more than normal after losing starting QB Tanner Mordecai to a broken hand suffered in the 15-6 loss to Iowa last week.  That's a massive blow for this Wisconsin offense as Mordecai was completing 63.7% of his passes for 1,127 yards on the season.  Backup Braedyn Locke is a big downgrade, completing 51.6% of his 31 passes this season while averaging 4.2 per attempt.

Both teams have good defenses with Wisconsin allowing 17.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play.  Illinois is holding opponents to 5.5 yards per play against teams that average 6.0 yards per play, so their defense have been better than the scoring numbers show.  The beat Maryland outright last week while holding that high-octane Terrapins offense to 24 points.

Both teams are good against the run as Illinois allows 4.3 yards per rush against teams that average 4.9 per rush, holding them 0.6 yards per rush below their season averages.  Wisconsin allows just 3.9 yards per rush even after allowing an 82-yard TD run to Iowa last week.

Illinois is 13-2 UNDER in its last 15 games as an underdog.  The Fighting Illini are 7-0 UNDER in their last seven home games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota +4

The Iowa Hawkeyes have nine lives this season with their pitiful offense.  They are 6-1 this season in spite of an offense that averages 20.9 points per game, 438.9 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  The Hawkeyes are actually getting outgained by 76 yards per game this season.  I'm confident the Hawkeyes come back down to reality this week.

It's a terrible spot for Iowa, which is come off a huge win at Wisconsin last week to put them in the driver's seat for winning the Big Ten West.  That makes this a letdown spot, plus the Hawkeyes are a tired, banged up team playing for an 8th consecutive week.  

The Hawkeyes were already without their best weapon in TE Luke Lachey and QB Cade McNamara.  Then they lost their next-best weapon in TE Erick Ali to a season-ending torn ACL against Wisconsin.  They just have no playmakers on offense, and backup QB Deacon Hill has been atrocious, completing 38.6% (27-of-70) of his passes for 4.4 yards per attempt.

Meanwhile, Minnesota comes in rested and ready to go off a bye week.  There's a good chance the Golden Gophers get some key players back on offense following the bye at receiver.  The Gophers are primed for one of their best efforts of the season, and you can bet PJ Fleck and company are putting a lot into this game considering Fleck has never beaten Iowa.

The fact that Fleck has never beaten Iowa is more of a fluke than anything because the Hawkeyes keep escaping with victories from the jaws of defeat against him.  Indeed, Iowa has an eight-game winning streak against Minnesota, but six of those wins came by 7 points or less.  Last year, Iowa won 13-10 despite getting outgained 399 to 280, or by 119 yards.  The year prior, they won 27-22 despite getting outgained 409 to 277, or by 132 total yards.  Iowa has had nine lives against Minnesota, too.  But the streak ends this year given the terrible spot for Iowa and the great one for Minnesota.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Minnesota) - after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in October games are 90-45 (66.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois UNDER 46

This play is largely due to the weather but also because both teams have very good defenses and both run slow-tempo offenses.  There are expected to be 20 MPH crosswinds at Huskie Stadium in DeKalb, Illinois on Saturday afternoon.  Heavy winds affect scoring more than anything because it makes it much more difficult to pass than it does in rain and snow.

Eastern Michigan has one of the worst offenses in the country.  Out of 133 teams, the Eagles rank 122nd in scoring at 19.0 points per game, 132nd in total offense at 253.1 yards per game and 130th at 4.3 yards per play.  This despite facing the 2nd-easiest schedule in the entire country.  Simply put, this Eastern Michigan offense is atrocious.

With those offensive numbers, it's amazing the Eagles have managed to win four games.  They have done so due to good luck plus a pretty good defense that is only allowing 19.4 points per game.  They'll be up against a Northern Illinois offense that averages 24.9 points per game and is far from a juggernaut, averaging 352 yards per game and 5.4 per play as well.

But Northern Illinois has a very good defense as well allowing just 22.4 points per game, 321 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.  They rank 23rd in total defense and 27th in yards per play.  I don't expect them to allow much at all to Eastern Michigan in this one.  They held Akron to 14 points and Ohio to 13 points in their last two games coming in.

As I stated at the beginning, both offenses are in no hurry.  Eastern Michigan ranks 109th in the country averaging 28.4 seconds in between plays.  Northern Illinois ranks 104th averaging 27.9 seconds in between plays.

Eastern Michigan is 5-2 UNDER on the season.  Five of Eastern Michigan's last six games have seen 42 or fewer combined points.  Four of Northern Illinois' last six games have seen 46 or fewer combined points, including 36 or fewer three times.  The MAC is loaded with terrible offenses in general, and there has been some bad weather already, which is normal for the Ohio Valley.  The winds have just been stronger than normal this season, and we'll take advantage by backing this MAC UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Charlotte +7.5

In this battle between two of the worst teams in college football, I'll side with the road team catching more than a touchdown.  I honestly think Charlotte is the better team in this one, and East Carolina (1-5) has zero home-field advantage this season.  It's a rebuilding year for the Pirates and it has shown.

I love Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi as he is one of the most energetic head coaches in the country.  The 49ers are just 1-5 this season as well, but they have impressed me against some very good competition.  They only lost by 18 as 24.5-point dogs at Maryland, by 15 as 28-point dogs at Florida and by 18 as 22.5-point dogs at SMU.  They are now 3-0 ATS on the road this season and now take a step down in class here against ECU.

SMU is a common opponent, and ECU just lost 31-10 at home to SMU as 11-point dogs.  Charlotte was only outgained by 32 yards by SMU on the road while ECU was outgained by 44 yards by SMU at home.  ECU also lost 31-13 to Marshall at home earlier this season and is 1-2 at home with its lone win coming against FCS Gardner Webb.

This is a very poor ECU offense that is averaging 19.2 points per game, 298 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play this season.  They are going to struggle to get margin with this putrid offense.  There are expected to be 15-20 MPH winds which is going to keep scoring suppressed as well.  Charlotte relies more on the run than ECU does, so the wind will affect ECU's passing game more.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Charlotte) - following two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more in Weeks 5 through 9 are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

20* Rice/Tulsa ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 57

Rice is a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with 84, 66, 71 and 69 combined points in the four overs.  The lone under was a bad weather game against East Carolina, which has no offense.  The weather conditions will be perfect for a shootout in Tulsa Thursday night with temps in the 70's, no rain and single-digit winds.

Rice is one of the most improved offensive teams in the country this season averaging 32.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play.  A big reason for their success is transfer QB JT Daniels, who is thriving in this offense.  He his completing 63.6% of his passes for 1,831 yards with a 15-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He is being forced to try and win shootouts due to a poor Rice defense that allows 30.3 points per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.

Tulsa has played in a pair of shootouts in its last two home games.  They beat Temple 48-26 for 74 combined points and lost 66-17 to Oklahoma for 83 combined points.  The Golden Hurricane have ramped up their offense in recent weeks and hung 48 points and 533 total yards on Temple.

Cardell Williams is a great dual-threat QB for the Golden Hurricane.  He is completing 60.8% of his passes for 955 yards with an 8-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.4 per attempt.  He has also rushed for 110 yards and three scores.  He'll be facing a very poor Rice pass defense that allows 8.2 yards per attempt.

Tulsa's defense leaves a lot to be desired as well.  The Golden Hurricane allow 29.3 points per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  They have been very poor against the pass, allowing 66.2% completions, 270 yards per game and 7.8 yards per attempt.  Both quarterbacks should thrive against these two pass defenses.

Rice is 22-9 OVER in its last 31 games overall.  Rice is 7-0 OVER in its last seven games following a non-conference game.  Kevin Wilson is 29-13 OVER in home games as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* New Mexico State/UTEP ESPN 2 No-Brainer on New Mexico State -3

New Mexico State has elite numbers this season for a 4-3 team.  The Aggies average 7.7 yards per play on offense and allow 5.8 yards per play on defense.  Compare that to UTEP (2-5), which averages 5.5 yards per play on offense and 6.1 yards per play on defense, and it's easy to see the Aggies are the superior team here.

Diego Paiva is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country for New Mexico State.  He is a dual-threat who is completing 62.2% of his passes for 1,615 yards while averaging 9.8 per attempt with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He also leads the team in rushing with 429 yards on 5.6 per carry and two touchdowns.

UTEP is down to fourth-string QB Cade McConnell due to injuries and poor play.  He is getting a lot of love for torching Florida International last week, which is one of the worst teams in all of college football.  He completed 11-of-17 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns.  But he did all of his damage in the 1st quarter of that game as the Miners jumped out to a 21-0 lead, then got outscored 14-6 in the final three quarters.  

That first quarter was an aberration, and McConnell will come back down to reality here against a much better opponent in New Mexico State.  This is a putrid UTEP offense that averages 17.7 points per game on the season.  The offense is averaging 0.3 yards per play less than their opponents allow on average, and their defense is allowing 0.5 yards per play more than their opponents average on offense.  They lost 24-10 to LA Tech in their last home game, and LA Tech is one of the worst teams in the country.  Their two wins came against FIU and FCS Incarnate Word.

UTEP is 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Dana Dimel is 4-19 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as a head coach.  UTEP is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 home games after losing four of its last five games.  Jerry Kill is 6-0 ATS after winning two of their last three games as the coach of the Aggies.  Bet New Mexico State Wednesday.