20* Baylor/West Virginia FS1 No-Brainer on Baylor -3

The numbers show the Baylor Bears are the way better team in this matchup.  That's why I'm willing to lay the -3 on the road with them despite the fact that Morgantown is usually a tough place to play and I'm normally looking to back the Mountaineers at home.  I think the Bears get the job done by more than a field goal Thursday night.

Baylor and West Virginia have played similar strength of schedules, so the numbers tell the story pretty accurately here.  Baylor is outscoring opponents 37.4 to 20.6 on average this season, while West Virginia is only outscoring foes 38.2 to 29.6 on average.  The more telling stats are yards per play.  Baylor averages 6.3 yards per play on offense and allows 4.7 on defense, outgaining teams by 1.6 yards per play.  WVU averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 5.7 on defense, only outgaining teams by 0.1 yards per play.

West Virginia was just blasted 38-20 at Texas in its last game.  That was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as it was 35-7 entering the 4th quarter.  The Mountaineers scored a couple garbage time touchdowns.  They also lost arguably their best weapon on offense in RB CJ Donaldson to a concussion, and he will be out Thursday.  He has rushed for 389 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 6.9 per carry.  His backup Mathis Jr. only averages 4.2 yards per carry, so it's a big downgrade.

Baylor could easily be 5-0 right now instead of 3-2.  The Bears blew the game in OT in a 26-20 loss at BYU.  They played Oklahoma State much tougher than the 25-36 final would indicate.  Baylor had 457 total yards against Oklahoma State and held the Cowboys to a season-low 379 yards.  But they gave up 9 points on a kickoff return and a safety that was the difference.  If they were 5-0 instead of 3-2, they would be bigger favorites.

Baylor blasted West Virginia 45-20 at home last season.  The Bears had 525 total yards and allowed 362 to the Mountaineers, outgaining them by 163 yards.  The key to this victory will be Baylor winning at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Baylor only allows 2.8 yards per carry this season, and now WVU won't have the threat of a running game without Donaldson.  WVU QB JT Daniels is going to be under pressure the entire game.

The Bears are 20-4-2 ATS int heir last 26 games following an ATS loss.  West Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games.  Bet Baylor Thursday.

20* Raiders/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51

This one is as simply as it gets.  When the Chiefs and Raiders get together, it's always a shootout.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 57, 55, 66 and 72 points in the last four meetings, respectively.  This total of 51 has been set too low, especially with both offenses coming in hot.

The Chiefs are coming off their second 40-point effort of the season when they beat the Bucs 41-31.  Scoring 41 on that Tampa Bay defense is no small feat.  They also scored 44 on the Cardinals back in Week 1.  It looks like Patrick Mahomes isn't missing Tyreke Hill one bit.  He'll stay hot against a Raiders defense that he has absolutely owns.

The Chiefs have scored at least 35 points in seven of their last eight meetings with the Raiders.  It will be more of the same here against a Raiders defense that is allowing 25.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play this season, ranking 23rd in scoring defense and 21st in defensive yards per play.

The Raiders are loaded on offense and have scored at least 22 points in three consecutive games.  They just put up a season-high 32 points on a very good Broncos defense that ranks among the best in the NFL to this point.  They should also be able to keep pace with the Chiefs, who allowed 326 passing yards to the Chargers and 373 more to the Bucs.

The weather looks good in Kansas City Monday with temperatures in the 60's and only 7 MPH winds at game time.  The OVER is 19-5 in Chiefs last 24 games after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game.  Andy Reid is 9-1 OVER after allowing 350 or more passing yards last game as the coach of the Chiefs.  The OVER is 9-3 in Chiefs last 12 games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Cowboys +6

Cooper Rush is now 4-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 2.  He beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  And last week he crushed the Commanders 25-10.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They allow just 15.5 points per game, 308.5 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 4th in yards per play allowed this season.

 Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in sacks.  You know who else is tied with them for 2nd in sacks?  The 49ers.  Well, I was on the 49ers against the Rams for many of the same reasons as I'm on the Cowboys this week.  Their defensive line is going to own this depleted Rams offensive line.

The 49ers held the Rams to 9 points on three field goals last week and made life miserable on Matthew Stafford.  The Cowboys will do the same.  The Rams lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason.  Now they are down C Allen, G Bruss and G Shelton.  G Edwards is questionable for this one.  Stafford is getting a lot of grief for declining this season, but it has as much to do with the offensive line as anything.  Plus, he only has chemistry with Cooper Kupp and has yet to find one with Allen Robinson.  WR Van Jefferson is out, and gone are both Beckham Jr. and Woods.

There has definitely been a Super Bowl hangover effect for the Rams as well.  They are 1-3 ATS this season with their only dominant win coming 20-12 at Arizona.  But they own the Cardinals, and they are way down this season.  They lost 31-10 to Buffalo in the opener and 24-9 to San Francisco.  They barely escaped with a 31-27 win over Atlanta as a double-digit underdog.  They have no business being favored by nearly a touchdown over the Cowboys, who I think are the better team right now even with Rush at QB.  This line should be much closer to PK than -6.

The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Dallas is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games overall.  The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Rams are on a short week and don't have much of a home-field advantage.  There may be more Cowboy fans here than Rams fans even.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia Eagles -5

The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFC this season and I don't think there's any debate.  They are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this season with elite numbers to this point.  They are loaded on both sides of the football and are taking care of the football, committing just two turnovers while forcing 10 thus far.

The Eagles are scoring 28.8 points per game, averaging 435.5 yards per game and putting up 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 4th in scoring offense, 2nd in total offense and 5th in yards per play.  They are allowing just 17.8 points per game, 277.3 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  They rank 9th in scoring defense, 3rd in total defense and 3rd in yards per play allowed.

Now they take on the Arizona Cardinals, who are very fortunate to be 2-2 when you consider they have played 13 bad quarters and only 3 good quarters.  They trailed 23-7 against the Raiders entering the 4th quarter before the refs gifted them an OT victory.  They trailed the Panthers 10-3 at halftime last week before coming back to win 26-16.

In the two games against teams on Philadelphia's level, the Cardinals were not even competitive.  They lost 44-21 to the Chiefs in Week 1 and 20-12 to the Rams in Week 3.  It won't go any better for them against the Eagles this week.  Kyler Murray is having to do too much on his own because of their lack of a rushing attack.  And he is missing key weapons on the outside including DeAndre Hopkins.

This Arizona defense cannot be trusted to get stops, either.  The Cardinals are allowing 25.8 points per game, 342.8 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 27th in the league in yards per play on defense, which is the most predictable stat for how good a defense really is.  To compare, the Eagles only allow 4.5 yards per play.

Arizona has zero home-field advantage.  In fact, the Cardinals are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in in their last seven home games.  Arizona is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after outgaining its last opponent by 100 or more total yards.  Kliff Kingsbury is 8-18 ATS as home as the coach of Arizona.  Take the Eagles Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +8.5

The Atlanta Falcons have been the most underrated team in the NFL this season.  They are the only team that is 4-0 ATS this season.  They covered in a 26-27 home loss to the Saints as 6-point underdogs, covered in a 27-31 road loss to the Rams as 10.5-point dogs, covered in a 27-23 win at Seattle as 1-point dogs and covered in a 23-20 home win at Cleveland as 1-point dogs.

As you can see, all four games have been decided by one score.  I think that will be the case again here Sunday against the Tampa Bay Bucs with the Falcons once again catching too many points as 8.5-point road underdogs.  The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs.  They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play.

The Bucs have been held back by injury issues, and Tom Brady is distracted with the divorce proceedings.  This Tampa Bay offense has been woeful, averaging 20.5 points per game, 317.0 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  They rank 25th in total offense and 22nd in offensive yards per play.  They have a banged up offensive line and receiving corps, which has made it even more difficult on Brady.

After three dominant defensive efforts, the Bucs were exposed by the Chiefs last week.  They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City.  Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football.  That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush.

The Falcons do have a suspect defense, no doubt, but they have the offense that can keep them in this game for four quarters.  They are feeling good right now and will be looking forward to testing themselves against the Bucs, who are in a terrible spot mentally right now with all the distractions and injuries.  These players are loving playing for Arthur Smith and playing the role of the underdog, while the Bucs are getting too much respect for what they've done in the past, and not the team they currently are.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Atlanta) - a good offensive team scoring 24 or more points per game, after a win by 3 points or less are 92-47 (66.2%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 46

The Atlanta Falcons are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have an elite offense and a suspect defense.  The Falcons have the offense to hang with the Bucs.  They are putting up 25.8 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 8th in scoring offense and 9th in offensive yards per play.  They are allowing 25.3 points per game and 5.9 yards per play, ranking 25th in scoring defense and 24th in yards per play allowed.

I think this number has been set so low because the Bucs have struggled so much on offense and have been elite defensively.  But that has changed now that the Bucs have gotten healthy on offense.  They scored 31 points against the Chiefs last week.  They just got back Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones and should be much better offensively moving forward.

The problem now with the Bucs is injuries on defense, which resulted in a terrible effort against Kansas City last week.  They gave up 41 points and 417 total yards to Kansas City.  Most concerning is the 189 rushing yards they allowed to a Chiefs team not known for running the football.  That could spell disaster here as they take on an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in rushing for 168.0 yards per game and 6th at 5.1 yards per rush.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  In fact, the Bucs and Falcons have combined for 47 or more points in eight consecutive meetings, which would make for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 46-point total.  They have averaged a whopping 60.1 combined points per game in those eight meetings.  The forecast is perfect for a shootout in Tampa with temps in the 80s and only 10 MPH winds expected.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Browns +3

If the Cleveland Browns were 4-0 like they should be, they would not be 3-point home underdogs to the Los Angeles Chargers.  But since they are 2-2 right now instead, we are getting value on the Browns.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on them off a loss and non-cover, and a great time to 'sell high' on the Chargers off a win and cover.

Let's explain why the Browns should be 4-0.  They outgained the Panthers by 94 yards in their 26-24 road win.  They outgained the Steelers by 68 yards in their 29-17 home win.  They blew a 13-point lead against the Jets in the final two minutes and lost 30-31 despite outgaining them.  And they outgained the Falcons by 70 yards in their 20-23 road loss last week due to red zone struggles.  So they have outgained all four opponents this season and have elite numbers.

Cleveland ranks 4th in total offense at 384.8 yards per game and 9th in total defense at 326.0 yards per game.  Jacoby Brissett has been better than everyone expected, and he can thrive behind one of the league's best rushing attacks.  The Browns rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing for 187.3 yards per game this season.  And that is going to be their key to victory because they are going to be able to run all over this Chargers defense.

The Chargers are also 2-2 this season, but they are getting a lot of love because Justin Herbert looked healthy last week in their win over the Texans.  But the Texans may be the worst team in the NFL, and that was a 3-point game late in the 4th quarter.  They tacked on one final score to get the win and cover.  Their other win came against the Raiders, who are 1-3 and their two wins have come against two teams that are 1-6-1 this season.

When the Chargers stepped up in class, they lost.  They lost 24-27 at Kansas City only after scoring a last-second, meaningless TD.  They suffered a ton of injuries in that game that they are still dealing with now.  They came back and were blown out 38-10 by the Jaguars at home.  They are still without two of their best players in T Slater and LB Bosa, and they could be without WR Allen again, who is questionable.

While the Chargers will be fine on offense moving forward for the most part, it's their defense that is going to be the problem in this game against the Browns.  They rank 31st in the NFL in allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per carry.  That's really bad when you consider they have faced the Raiders, Chiefs, Jaguars and Texans.  Only the Jaguars have a decent rushing attack, and they rushed for 151 yards on the Chargers.  Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are going to have monster games in this one.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Chargers) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in October games are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - a mistake-free team that commits 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game against a team that forces 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after three consecutive games where they forced one turnover or fewer are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  

Myles Garrett returned to practice on Wednesday after sitting out the Atlanta game.  That's a good sign he will be able to play this week.  And head coach Kevin Stefanski was hopeful Jadeveon Clowney would return later this week.  If they get one or both back it would be a huge boost.  The Chargers are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  Roll with the Browns Sunday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona +13

The Arizona Wildcats were much more competitive than their 1-11 record would indicate last season.  They are one of the most improved teams in the country this season, but they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They are off to a 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS start despite being underdogs in four of five games.  They pulled the upsets over San Diego State and North Dakota State with their only losses coming to Mississippi State and California in games they were competitive deep into the 2nd half.

Now they take on Oregon, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Ducks after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games against a pretty soft schedule with three home wins and a fortunate 44-41 win at Washington State.  Their other road game resulted in a 49-3 loss to Georgia.  They have a big home/away discrepancy.

Arizona lost 41-19 at Oregon last year in what was one of the most misleading final scores of the season.  Arizona actually outgained Oregon 435 to 393 in that game, but gave it away by being -5 in turnovers.  The Wildcats are vastly improved this season, and a big part of that is Washington State transfer QB Jayden de Laura.  He is completing 62.8% of his passes for 1,633 yards with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 60 yards and a score.  He can keep the Wildcats in this game for four quarters.

Plays on home teams (Arizona) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 440 yards per game against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after gaining 7.25 yards per play or more in two consecutive games are 80-32 (71.4%) ATS since 1992.  The Ducks are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Oregon is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Oregon.  Roll with Arizona Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Army +17.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Army.  They are off to a disappointing 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS start against a tough schedule.  They have played arguably the best team in the Sun Belt in Coastal Carolina and lost by 10.  They also lost to arguably the best team in Conference USA in UTA by 3.  Their 14-31 loss to Georgia State last week as a 9-point favorite is what is giving us the opportunity to 'buy low' on them.  They rushed for 354 yards in that game, but gave the game away by committing three turnovers.

Wake Forest is in a massive letdown spot.  The Demon Deacons are coming off three straight hard-fought games.  They were nearly upset by Liberty in a 37-36 win.  They were probably looking ahead to Clemson, who they lost to 45-51 in double-OT.  They bounced back last week with a 31-21 upset win at Florida State.  I just don't think the Demon Deacons have much left in the tank.  They really needed a bye this week, but instead they will have to face Army's triple-option, which isn't fun to prepare for let alone face.

Last year, Army kept Pace with Wake Forest in a 70-56 home loss as 3-point underdogs.  Both teams have similar returning starters, but now Wake Forest is a 17.5-point favorite in the rematch, a 14.5-point adjustment.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Demon Deacons after a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  This is the spot they let down similar to when they nearly let Liberty beat them three weeks ago at home.

Jeff Monken is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with better than a 75% winning percentage as the coach of Army.  The Black Knights have played 29 games over the past three seasons.  They've only lost once by more than 17 points.  That makes for a 28-1 system backing the Black Knights pertaining to this 17.5-point spread.  Take Army Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State +2

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Iowa State Cyclones this week.  They are coming off two losses to Baylor and Kansas by a combined 10 points in which they arguably could have won both.  Look for them to give an 'A' effort here to try and avoid a three-game losing streak.

Conversely, it's time to 'sell high' on Kansas State.  They are coming off two straight wins and covers against Oklahoma and Texas Tech.  Of course, that win over Oklahoma doesn't look nearly as good after the Sooners were just blasted 55-24 by TCU last week.  And Texas Tech is one of the worst teams in the Big 12 and they only won by 37-28 at home despite forcing four turnovers.

I love the matchup for the Cyclones.  They rank 7th in the country against the run, allowing just 83 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry this season.  Kansas State relies on moving the football on ground, averaging 267 rushing yards per game compared to only 139 passing yards.

Adrian Martinez is beating teams with his legs rather than his arm.  Well, we saw what Iowa State did to Kansas last week.  Nobody had been able to stop Kansas dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels up to that point.  Iowa State held him to just 9 rushing yards on 8 carries, and 7-of-14 passing for 93 yards.  And he's a better passer than Martinez.  The Cyclones held that high-powered Kansas offense to just 213 total yards and 10 first downs.  They would have won the game if not for 3 missed field goals.  They will hold Martinez in check this week as well.

Kansas State may have the slightly better offense than Iowa State, but it's close.  There's no debate that Iowa State has the better defense.  They are holding teams to 256 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play this season, while K-State is allowing 370 yards per game and 5.2 per play.  So I'm getting the better defense as a home underdog in what is a home run spot where they need this win like blood to avoid their third consecutive defeat.

Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games vs. poor passing teams that average 150 or fewer passing yards per game.  The Cyclones are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings after winning 33-20 on the road last year and 45-0 at home in 2020.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech -3

I love the spot for Louisiana Tech.  They are coming off a bye week after a 1-3 start this season.  They have played a brutal schedule with their three losses all coming on the road to Missouri, Clemson and South Alabama, while they crushed Stephen F. Austin 52-17 as 6.5-point favorites in their lone home game.  

The bye came at a great time after this brutal schedule so they can regroup and get ready for conference play.  Byes also tend to benefit teams more with a first-year head coach like the Bulldogs have in Sonny Cumbie.  Turnovers have been the biggest issue for the Bulldogs as they have committed 12 in those three road losses.  Look for them to focus on ball security in practice for two weeks, and to come out with a big effort here Saturday night as they take a big step down in class against UTEP.

This is a terrible spot for the Miners.  They are a tired team right now as they will be playing for a 7th consecutive week to start the season.  They are in a letdown spot after upsetting Boise State 27-10 at home followed by a 41-35 win as 3.5-point favorites at Charlotte last week.  That shootout win will have taken a lot out of them.  Now they have to travel back to the Eastern Time Zone for a 2nd consecutive week, just amplifying their fatigue factor.

Keep in mind this UTEP team also has bad losses to North Texas 31-13 and New Mexico 27-10.  They have played the easier strength of schedule with their other win coming against New Mexico State.  Their numbers are not very good as they average 5.2 yards per play on offense against teams that normally average giving up 5.9 yards per play on defense.  They average 20.7 points per game against teams that normally allow 30.2 points per game.  

To compare, LA Tech is actually averaging 5.7 yards per play on offense against teams that normally give up only 5.5 per play on defense.  Look for them to have one of their best offensive performances of the season this week similar to what they had against Stephen F. Austin when they scored 52 points and had 515 total yards against a quality FCS opponent.

LA Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a bye week.  UTEP is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more.  Take Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +3.5

East Carolina is better than Tulane, period.  The Pirates should not be underdogs in this game, especially against a Tulane team that was down to their third-string QB against Houston last week.  They are overvalued due to winning that game 27-24 in a game they had no business winning.  They were outgained 273 to 383 by Houston, or by 110 total yards.

This line indicates the Green Wave will get QB Michael Pratt back this week from a shoulder injury even though he's listed as questionable.  But it's not going to matter.  The Green Wave are a fraudulent 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season, and it's time to 'sell high' on them.  This is a team that went 2-10 last season and is exceeding expectations and getting too much respect now as a result.

East Carolina is 3-2 and should be 5-0.  They have outgained all five opponents this season.  That includes their 20-21 loss to NC State in which they missed an extra point late.  They also outgained Navy by 27 yards in their 3-point OT loss, so they are 4 points away from being undefeated.  They have elite numbers on both sides of the football despite playing a pretty tough schedule.

East Carolina is averaging 35.2 points per game, 486 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense.  They are only giving up 20.6 points per game, 371 yards per game and 5.9 per play on defense.  I love their balanced offense that averages 172 yards per game on the ground and 314 yards per game through the air.  Holton Ahlers is arguably the best QB in the conference.  He is completing 68.6% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 81 yards and a score.

East Carolina crushed Tulane 52-29 last year and gained 612 total yards in a dominant effort.  Ahlers threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns and also rushed for a score.  The Pirates are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as road underdogs of 7 points or less.  Tulane is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games off a close road win by 3 points or less, losing by a whopping 27.6 points per game in this spot.  The Pirates are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Green Wave get exposed this week.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Florida +28

Cincinnati isn't as good as last year when they made the four-team playoff.  Making the playoff has them overvalued this season.  No question the Bearcats are still the class of the AAC, but they should not be favored by four touchdowns over South Florida this week.

Their only win this season by more than 21 points came against Keenesaw State as a 29-point favorite.  They also beat Miami Ohio by 21 and their backup QB.  They only outgained a bad Indiana team by 46 yards in a misleading 45-24 final.  And last week they only outgained Tulsa by 79 yards in a 10-point victory.

I'm not high on South Florida as I faded them last week with a free pick on East Carolina that cashed in a 48-28 win as 9.5-point favorites.  However, I was impressed that USF kept trying to punch back after getting down big early.  And we've seen them nearly upset Florida in a 28-31 loss as 23-point road underdogs.  If they were 23-point road dogs to Florida, they should not be 28-point dogs to Cincinnati.

USF just owns Cincinnati from a point spread perspective.  Indeed, the Bulls are a perfect 7-0 ATS In the last seven meetings.  In fact, dating back to 2003, Cincinnati hasn't beaten South Florida by more than 22 points in any of their 19 meetings.  That makes for a 19-0 system backing the Bulls pertaining to this 28-point spread.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

15* TCU/Kansas FS1 Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +7

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.  They covered in a 35-27 win as 7-point favorites against Duke two weeks ago, a Blue Devils team that is 4-0 in all other games this season.  

Last week, it seemed everyone thought they'd lose to Iowa State, but they pulled out the 14-11 upset as 3.5-point underdogs and I backed them again.  I'm back on them again this week because they are still getting disrespected as 7-point home underdogs to TCU.  ESPN College Gameday will be in Lawrence this week to cover this team and their 5-0 start, so there will be no letdown for the Jayhawks, especially learning that they are underdogs again.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 41.6 points per game, 421.0 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 385 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.1 yards per play.  Their defense showed last week they could win a game for them when needed.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 220 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry.  They are also completing 68.8% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

I think this is a bad spot for TCU, and they are getting way too much respect for their 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma.  That's the same Oklahoma team that was upset by Kansas State at home the previous week and clearly has issues.  Plus, Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel got injured in the first half against TCU, and they were doomed from there.  But unlike Kansas, TCU is getting respect for its 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season.  They will meet their match this week in the Jayhawks.

The Jayhawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall and covering by 16.3 points per game.  That includes their 28-31 loss at TCU as 21-point dogs last year, which they will be out for revenge for to add to their motivation.  I have been on them for almost every game and I'm not about to jump off the train now.  Roll with Kansas Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan/Indiana UNDER 59

Indiana isn't going to be able to score enough on this elite Michigan defense to be able to top 59 combined points.  The books have missed their mark badly with this one.  The Hoosiers have some serious injury issues at receiver that are hampering their offense.  Two starters in Cam Camper and DJ Matthews are questionable while both Smith and Baker are out.

The Hoosiers managed just 21 points and 290 total yards against a terrible Nebraska defense last week.  That's the same Nebraska defense that gave up 49 points to Oklahoma, 45 to Georgia Southern and 31 to Northwestern.  This Indiana offense is only averaging 4.8 yards per play, but they do have a solid defense that is allowing 5.5 yards per play against teams that normally average 6.0 yards per play, holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.

Michigan has another elite defense this season in allowing just 11.6 points per game, 252.0 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.  Michigan loves to run the football, averaging 40 rush attempts per game compared to 25 passing.  They will get off to a big early lead and then sit on it with their running game, which will help us cash this UNDER ticket.

These teams combined for just 36 points last season.  In fact, each of the last six meetings between Michigan and Indiana have seen 59 or fewer combined points, making for a 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 59-point total.  They have combined for an average of just 44.8 points per game at the end of regulation in their last six meetings.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Indiana) - after one or more consecutive losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 70-29 (70.7%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee -2.5

I love this spot for the Tennessee Vols.  They are coming off a bye week after their big win over Florida.  Now they have two full weeks to prepare for the LSU Tigers and will be the fresher team.  And I don't think the country has caught up to how good the Volunteers are this season.  They are legitimate SEC title contenders.

The Volunteers have arguably the most underrated quarterback in the entire country in Hendon Hooker.  He now has a 39-to-3 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons along with eight rushing touchdowns.  Hooker and Josh Heupel have this offense humming, averaging 48.5 points per game, 559.3 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play against opponents that normally allow 31 points per game, 414 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  

The defense is holding opponents to 19.0 points per game and 5.3 yards per play against offenses that normally average 27.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.  Florida put up a lot of points and yards late to hurt those averages when the game was already decided, and that was really a misleading 38-33 final.

I just don't think LSU is very good and it's going to take some time for Brian Kelly to get them back to SEC title contention.  They lost to Florida State in the opener before reeling off three straight home wins with two of them coming against Southern and New Mexico.  The Mississippi State win was a good one, so they deserve credit for that.

But last week's 21-17 win at Auburn was very alarming.  That's an Auburn team that is way down this season and nearly lost to both San Jose State and Missouri at home.  They were outgained 438 to 270 by Auburn, or by 168 total yards.  Auburn gave that game away by committing four turnovers, including one that was returned for a TD when they led 17-0.  That's also an Auburn team that lost 41-12 at home to Penn State and was playing with a backup QB against LSU.

Now LSU will be playing for a 6th consecutive week, while Tennessee comes in rested and ready to go.  Fatigue and injuries will catch up with the Tigers this week.  I also like a hidden factor here, which is that the kickoff is at 12:00 EST Saturday afternoon.  Baton Rouge at night is a much more difficult place to play than Baton Rouge in the early window on Saturday's.

The road team is 6-0-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Tennessee is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* UNLV/SJSU MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +7

The UNLV Rebels are one of the most improved teams in the country.  There has been nothing fluky about their 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  Their lone loss came on the road to Cal as 13-point underdogs by a final of 20-14.  They won their other four games by double-digits by 31 over Idaho State, by 31 over North Texas, by 10 over Utah State and by 11 over New Mexico.

Doug Brumfield is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country and gets no national attention.  He is completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,223 yards with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions, while also rushing for 142 yards and five scores.  It has been a balanced offensive attack that has been tough to tame with the Rebels averaging 169 yards on the ground and 254 yards through the air.  They are scoring 37.8 points per game.

The Rebels have an improved defense this season as well.  They are allowing just 22.4 points per game, 356.6 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  This is at least an average defense now, plus one of the best offenses in the MAC.  They should be able to give San Jose State all they can handle in this one.

I think San Jose State is getting too much credit for its 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start.  The lone loss came at Auburn, and while it was competitive, Auburn is way down this season.  They only beat Portland State by 4 as 22-point favorites.  They beat a Western Michigan team that was playing with a freshman QB and a Wyoming team that was playing with another terrible QB.  They have faced four bad quarterbacks this season and haven't faced anyone nearly as talented as Brumfeld.

A bad UNLV team gave San Jose State a run for its money last year in a 27-20 defeat.  I think both teams are improved, but there's no question the Rebels are more improved.  These teams have faced similar strength of schedules and have similar numbers.  UNLV is outgaining teams by 66 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play, while San Jose State is outgaining teams by 61 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play.  This game should be lined much closer to PK than -7.

Brent Brennan is 0-7 ATS in home games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points as the coach of San Jose State having never covered in this spot with the Spartans losing by a whopping 26.3 points per game.  The Rebels are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Bet UNLV Friday.

15* Colts/Broncos AFC ANNIHILATOR on Denver -3

The Indianapolis Colts are in a world of hurt this season.  They are 1-2-1 and arguably should be 0-4.  They tied the Texans in Week 1 only after coming back from a 20-3 deficit in the 4th quarter.  The Texans may be the worst team in the NFL.  They lost to the Jaguars 24-0 in Week 2.  The abberration was the 20-17 win over Chiefs in which they were held to 259 yards.  And last week they lost 24-17 at home to the lowly Titans.

Now it gets worse for the Colts.  They could be without their best offensive player in RB Jonathan Taylor, who injured his ankle late in the loss to the Titans.  It would be hard to see him coming back on a short week and being anywhere near 100%.  They also lost their best defensive player in LB Shaq Leonard to a concussion and he will miss this game.  I don't trust Matt Ryan at all as he has already fumbled eight times this season and the Colts have committed nine turnovers in four games.

The Broncos have injury concerns of their own, but not as significant as the Colts in terms of key players.  I also think the Broncos' problems this season have been overblown.  They are 2-2 and should be 3-1 as they outgained the Seahawks by 180 yards in the opener, but fumbled at the goal line twice in a 17-16 loss.  They came back and beat the Texans and 49ers, and that win over the 49ers looks really good now.  They lost to a desperate Raiders team last week that was 0-3 and simply wanted it more than they did.  Look for the Broncos to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week.

I think the Broncos have more potential on offense as Russell Wilson and his weapons get more comfortable with each other moving forward.  They will eventually compliment their defense, which has been one of the best units in the NFL this season in allowing just 17.0 points per game, 285 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  They rank 5th in scoring defense, 5th in total defense and 7th in yards per play.  Matt Ryan has struggled tremendously and still hasn't seen a defense this good yet.

Denver is 28-11 ATS in its last 39 home games following a division loss.  Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the Broncos Thursday.

20* SMU/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on SMU +3

The SMU Mustangs are just 2-2 this season but I've been very impressed with them.  After beating North Texas 48-10 and Lamar 45-16 to open the season, they lost a pair of one-score games to Maryland and TCU, two Power 5 opponents.  Those also happen to be two of the most improved teams in the country.

SMU lost 27-34 at Maryland and should have won that game.  They gained 520 yards on the Terrapins and outgained them by 79 yards.  That's the same Maryland team that almost beat Michigan on the road, and that came back to crush Michigan State 27-13 at home.

SMU also lost 34-42 at home to TCU as a 2.5-point underdog.  The Mustangs gained 476 yards on the Horned Frogs and were only outgained by 11 yards.  That's the same TCU team that is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season and coming off a 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma as a 5-point underdog.

UCF has played a much softer schedule and is 3-1 SU despite being favored in all four games.  They beat South Carolina State 56-10 before losing to Louisville 14-20 as a 5.5-point favorite.  THey beat FAU 40-14 on the road before topping Georgia Tech 27-10 at home.  But that win over awful Georgia Tech was very misleading.  The Knights actually gave up 452 yards to the Yellow Jackets and were outgained by 119 yards.  They allowed 314 passing yards to what is a poor GT passing offense.

SMU crushed UCF 55-28 last season as a 7-point home favorite.  They had 36 first downs compared to just 15 for UCF and outgained them 631 to 333, or by 298 total yards.  Now the Mustangs come back as a 3-point underdog a year later.  Their offense is as potent as it was last year, and their defense is better than it was expected to be as well.

SMU is averaging 6.4 yards per play on offense against teams that allow 5.8 yards per play, averaging 0.6 yards per play more than their opponents normally allow.  SMU is allowing 5.7 yards per play against teams that average 6.2 yards per play, holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  Those are elite numbers compared to UCF, which is at 6.1  yards per play on offense against teams that allow 6.1 per play on defense, and 5.0 yards per play on defense against teams that average 5.1 yards per play on offense.

UCF is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 conference games.  Bet SMU Wednesday.

20* Rams/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on San Francisco PK

The San Francisco 49ers should be 3-0.  Instead, they are 1-2 and we are now getting value with them as basically a pick 'em at home against the Los Angeles Rams.  We'll take advantage and back the 49ers as they are the better team, more motivated team.

The 49ers outgained the Bears by 127 yards in Week 1 but lost.  They outgained the Seahawks by 157 yards in Week 2 and won 27-7.  And last week they outgained the Broncos by 6 yards on the road but lost, giving up a last-minute TD drive to fall 11-10.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the 49ers now.

The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play allowed, giving up just 3.9 yards per play.  They rank 2nd in total defense, allowing just 227.0 yards per game.  I would argue they have the best defense in the NFL, and I love backing elite defensive teams because they are the most trustworthy.

Of course Jimmy G has been rusty in his first 1.5 games after taking over for Trey Lance.  But the 49ers have a great running game they can rely on until he finds his rhythm.  I expect Jimmy G to be much sharper this week at home against the Rams with extra time to get ready for this Monday Night tilt.

The Rams just aren't the team they were last year when they won the Super Bowl.  They lost two starting offensive linemen in the offseason, and have lost a couple more to injury now.  The 49ers will own them up front defensively, which is where this game will be won.  Matthew Stafford struggles against teams that can get pressure without blitzing, just like he did against the Bills in Week 1 when they lost 31-10.

The Rams nearly lost to the Falcons at home in Week 2, winning 31-27 as 10.5-point favorites.  And last week they played one of the worst teams in the NFL in the Cardinals and only won 20-12.  Their offense isn't sharp, ranking just 25th in total offense at 306.3 yards per game.  Their defense could be without three of their top four cornerbacks, and they are weak at linebacker.  The Rams lost a lot in the offseason, and have lost even more to injury thus far in 2022.

The 49ers own the Rams, going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The lone loss? A 20-17 loss in the NFC Championship Game last year.  So they will be out for revenge from that defeat that cost them a trip to the Super Bowl.  They will also be pissed off for how they lost to the Broncos last week.  Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week and to continue their dominance of the Rams.

The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The 49ers are 34-13 ATS in their last 47 Monday Night Football games.  The Rams are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following two or more consecutive wins.  San Francisco is 24-7 ATS in its last 31 games following an upset loss as a road favorite.  Roll with the 49ers Monday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers ML -120

The Arizona Cardinals are broken.  They have played 11 poor quarters of football and one good one, which is the only reason they aren't 0-3.  They erased a 23-7 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat the Raiders 29-23 (OT), a game that was gifted to them by the refs.  The Raiders are 0-3 on the season.  They other losses came 21-44 at home to Kansas City, which hasn't looked good since that win.  And they lost 20-12 at home to the Rams, who were blown out 41-7 by the Bills and nearly lost to the Falcons as a double-digit favorite.

Injuries are really hurting the Cardinals.  DeAndre Hopkins is out, AJ Green is doubtful and Rondale Moore is questionable, which are Kyler Murray's three biggest weapons on offense.  He is having to try to do too much, and his task gets even tougher this week against a very good Carolina Panthers defense.  The Panthers are only allowing 19.7 points per game and holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than their season averages.

Conversely, Carolina could easily be 3-0.  They lost on a 58-yard FG at the buzzer to the Browns in Week 1.  They lost by 3 to the Giants in Week 2 despite outgaining them 5.1 to 3.8 yards per play.  And last week they got in the win column with a 22-14 home victory over the New Orleans Saints in a game they led 13-0 entering the 4th quarter and controlled throughout.

The Panthers clearly have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  The Cardinals are getting gashed defensively, allowing 29.0 points per game 387.7 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  They are allowing 0.8 yards per play more than their opponents average on the season.  They are broken on both sides of the football, while the Panthers are only struggling on offense.  This line should be much closer to Carolina -3 instead of a PK.

The Panthers own the Cardinals, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with all six wins by double-digits!  That includes a 34-10 upset road win last season.  The home team is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +5.5

The Los Angeles Chargers are getting treated like the talented team they were coming into the season rather than the injury-ravaged team they are currently.  No team has lost more star players to injury than the Chargers, and they could be without even more this week against the Houston Texans.

I took advantage and cashed in the Jaguars in a 38-10 victory over the Chargers as 7-point underdogs last week.  And I'll gladly fade the Chargers again this week.  They lost their best offensive lineman in T Slater to a torn bicep last week.  They lost LB Bosa to a groin injury, and he'll be out this week.  They were already without WR Keenan Allen, C Linsley and CB Jackson, and all three are questionable this week.  As is QB Justin Herbert, who is playing through torn rib cartilage and isn't as effective.

The Texans have quietly gone 2-0-1 ATS this season and are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall dating back to last season.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team because they are considered the worst team in the NFL, but they are competitive and will continue to battle.  All three of their games have been decided by one score this season.  If the Chargers win, they're going to have a hard time covering this inflated number in the process.

I think RB Dameon Pierce and this Houston rushing attack will have success against this soft Chargers run defense.  The Chargers are allowing 4.6 yards per carry this season, and they have faced two poor rushing teams in the Raiders and Chiefs.  They gave up 151 yards on the ground to the Jaguars last week.  Houston has been good against the pass, allowing 208 passing yards per game and 6.4 per attempt, so they match up well with the Chargers and their pass-heavy attack.

Plays against favorites (LA Chargers) - in a game involving two teams that are both outrushed by 40-plus yards per game, after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1983.  Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. AFC opponents.  Take the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Cowboys -3

Cooper Rush is now 3-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat the Bengals in Week 2.  And he just beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They are allowing just 17.3 points per game and 312.3 yards per game through three games.

Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys sacked Daniel Jones 5 times last week and lead the league in sacks.  That's bad news for Carson Wentz and the Commanders.  Wentz was sacked 9 times last week by the Eagles in their 24-8 home loss.

The Commanders managed just 50 total yards in the first three quarters of that game.  They couldn't do anything until garbage time.  Wentz is the least trust-worthy QB in the entire NFL in my opinion.  He's right up there with Jameis Winston, except a lot less talented.  And Wentz almost has no chance playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

This Washington defense isn't any good, either.  The Commanders are allowing 27.3 points per game, 402.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They rank 27th in total defense and 28th in yards per play on defense.  There's just not a lot to like about this Commanders team.

This line suggests that these are almost even teams when you factor in home-field advantage, and I just don't see it that way.  The Cowboys have all the advantages in this game, especially at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, which is most important.  Wentz will be under duress all game and is sure to make another bonehead mistake or two, which is something he just has a knack for doing.

The Cowboys own this division, going 21-7 ATS in their last 28 vs. NFC East opponents, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven against division foes.  Dallas is 18-7 ATS In its last 25 games overall.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Dallas.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-130)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are for real, but the betting public and thus the oddsmakers don't want to accept it.  Here we are again catching a touchdown with the Jaguars in Week 4 after catching a touchdown with them against the Chargers last week.

That's because the consensus is that everyone knows the Eagles are for real, but that's not the consensus with the Jaguars.  Jacksonville could easily be 3-0 as they blew a late lead to Washington on the road in the first game under Doug Pederson.  They have been dominant in both games since, beating the Colts 24-0 at home and the Chargers 38-10 on the road despite being underdogs in both games.  They covered the spread by a combined 61.5 points in those two games.

Trevor Lawrence has made that leap in Year 2 that you hope to see from 1st-round quarterbacks.  Pederson is a big reason why.  Remember, he won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles in Philadelphia, and now he'll have his team extra amped up to face his former squad after a not so pleasant exit.  Lawrence is completing 69.4% of his passes for 772 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games.  James Robinson and Travis Etienne have combined for 344 rushing yards in three games behind a vastly improved offensive line.  Pederson is working his magic with this offense.

Defensively, the Jaguars have elite talent that is starting to finally live up to their potential this season.  They are allowing just 12.7 points per game, 306.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play, ranking 12th in total defense.  They have great team speed defensively, which makes them match up as well with the Eagles' speed as anyone has yet this season.  I think the Eagles are feeling 'fat and happy' after their 3-0 start, while the Jaguars are the more more motivated team to win one for their head coach this week.

Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - outgaining their opponent by 0.75 or more yards per play, after averaging 400 yards per game or more offensively in their last three games are 52-12 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Jacksonville) - after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

15* Vikings/Saints NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota ML -140

The New Orleans Saints looked like a sleeper coming into the season to win the NFC South.  Unfortunately, injuries have not gone their way in the early going.  I faded them last week with the Panthers, and I'm fading them again this week with the Vikings for a number of the same reasons.

QB Jameis Winston has a broken back, and he has been the catalyst as to why the Saints have turned the ball over 8 times the last two weeks in losing to the Bucs and Panthers while averaging just 12 points per game.  Alvin Kamara is banged up and questionable, and two of the top receivers are questionable in Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry after both left the game against Panthers last week with foot injuries.  All told, the Saints have 23 players on the injury report.

The Vikings have remained remarkably healthy.  Dalvin Cook is on the injury report with a shoulder injury, but is likely to play as he has played through this injury before.  The drop off to backup Mattison is minimal as we've seen before.  The Vikings only have nine players on the injury report with the only significant ones being Cook and Z'Darius Smith, who are both questionable.  They are remarkably healthy.

The Vikings look like one of the best teams in the NFC.  They beat the Packers 23-7 in the opener.  I know they lost 7-24 to the Eagles in Week 2, but the Vikings had every chance to get back in that game in the second half but kept failing in the red zone.  And the Eagles appear to be the best team in the NFC.  They came back with a 28-24 win over Detroit last week.

I trust the healthy Vikings and Kirk Cousins more than Jameis Winston and this banged up Saints squad.  Winston is like Carson Wentz in that he can't be trusted to hold onto the football.  New Orleans is a mash unit right now.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +23

It's time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets after a 1-3 start against a brutal schedule and some misleading results mixed in.  The three losses have come to Clemson, Ole Miss and UCF as the Yellow Jackets have played the 8th-toughest schedule in the country.

They were in a dog fight with Clemson in the opener in what was a 14-10 game late in the 3rd quarter before the Tigers scored 27 unanswered points to finish, including two touchdowns in the final six minutes.  They were only outgained by 141 yards by the Tigers.

Last week, Georgia Tech lost 27-10 at UCF despite outgaining the Knights 452 to 333, or by 119 total yards.  They arguably should have pulled the outright upset as 21-point dogs, but lost by 17.  These misleading finals and difficult schedule have the Yellow Jackets undervalued.

I was looking to fade Pitt coming into the season with all they lost in the offseason.  The Panthers were overvalued after winning the ACC last year.  They lost QB Kenny Pickett and star receiver Jordan Addison.  Those players have proven to be irreplaceable as Kedon Slovis is a big downgrade at QB.

Pitt is 3-1 but should be 2-2.  They lost to Tennessee in OT, and they beat WVU by 7 only after a fluky pick-6 to go ahead in the final minutes.  The other two wins came against overmatched Western Michigan and Rhode Island teams.  The Panthers are just 1-3 ATS this season and have proven to be good fade material, and I expect them to continue to be good fade material in this spot this week.

Georgia Tech's numbers are pretty good.  They average 0.1 yards per play less on offense than their opponents give up on average (5.1 to 5.2), and they are holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than they average (5.5 to 6.1).  Pitt is averaging only 0.1 yards per play more on offense than their opponents give up on average, and holding opponents to 0.8 yards per play less than their season average.

Plays on road teams (Georgia Tech) - off one or more consecutive unders, a poor offensive team that is scoring 17 or fewer points per game are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  They only beat Rhode Island by 21 as 34.5-point favorites in their last home games.  The Yellow Jackets can easily stay within 21 as well.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on LSU -8.5

It's no surprise that the LSU Tigers are improving rapidly as the season goes on under first-head head coach Brian Kelly, who is one of the best in the country.  The 23-24 loss to Florida State in the opener doesn't look that bad now when we've seen what the Seminoles have done since.

LSU has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since with a 65-17 win over Southern, a 31-16 win over a very good Mississippi State team outright as underdogs, and a 38-0 win over New Mexico as 31-point favorites.  The injuries have gone LSU's way leading into this game.

QB Jayden Daniels left in the 3rd quarter with a lower back injury against New Mexico.  He didn't return despite being cleared, and it was more for precautionary reasons with the game already in hand.  He should be playing this week.  Starting nickel Jay Ward missed last game but returned to practice this week.  RB Armoni Goodwin is day-to-day but likely to play as well.  Edge rusher BJ Ojulari was held out against the Lobos as a precaution.

While LSU is a team I want shares of moving forward, I want to sell all my Auburn stock.  Brian Harsin is on the hot seat and I'm be surprised if he survives the season after going 6-7 year.  The Tigers should be 2-2 as they were gifted a win last week by Missouri.  Missouri missed a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation, then fumbled going into the end zone for the game winning score in OT.  Auburn did everything in their power to give Missouri the game.

That came after an ugly 12-41 home loss to Penn State.  LSU is better than Penn State, and I think it will be a similar blowout.  Auburn barely beat San Jose State 24-16 the week prior as 24-point favorites, and failed to cover against Mercer in a 42-16 win as 30-point favorites in the opener.  Auburn is now 0-4 ATS this season and about to fall to 0-5 ATS this week.

Making matters worse for Auburn is that they are going to be without starting QB TJ Finley this week.  Backup Zach Calzada is out with injury as well, and third-string freshman Robby Ashford has not been good.  He has completed just 27-of-47 passes for 372 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions while playing in parts of all four games.

Auburn is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when the total is 42.5 to 49 points.  Plays on road teams (LSU) - allowing 200 or fewer total yards per game in their last two games, with an experienced QB vs. an opponent with an inexperienced QB are 56-22 (71.8%) ATS since 1992.  Auburn is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet LSU Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Troy +5.5

I was high on Troy coming into the season and they have delivered.  The Trojans returned 18 starters this season.  They opened with a 28-10 loss at Ole Miss as 21.5-point dogs and were only outgained by 87 yards.  Ole Miss appears to be one of the best teams in the country.  They followed it up with a 38-17 win over Alabama A&M.

They should be 3-1, losing 32-28 at Appalachian State on a fluke hail mary on the final play of the game as 14-point underdogs.  App State is the king of the Sun Belt, so the fact that they should have beaten them says all you need to know.  And had they beaten them, they certainly would not be 5.5-point underdogs this week.

I was impressed with how Troy got back up off the mat and upset Marshall 16-7 as 3.5-point underdogs last week.  That's the same Marshall team that had upset Notre Dame on the road earlier this season.  The Trojans dominated more than the final score would suggest, too.  They outgained Marshall 421 to 174, or by 247 total yards and should have won by more even.

Troy has arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt and a much improved offense this season led by Gunnar Watson, who is averaging 312 passing yards per game and completing 66.4% of his passes despite the tough competition.  He and the Trojans have done this against the 43rd-ranked schedule in the country.

You know who hasn't played a tough schedule? That's Western Kentucky.  They have played the 175th-ranked schedule in the country.  They are getting too much respect for their 3-1 start with the three wins coming against Hawaii, FIU and Austin Peay.  FIU and Hawaii may be the two worst teams in FBS, and Austin Peay is one of the worst teams in FCS.  They did play Indiana tough in their lone loss, but Indiana isn't very good this year, either.

I was down on Western Kentucky coming into the season because they only returned 11 starters and lost all of their top playmakers from last season.  They lost QB Bailey Zappe and his 5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns, plus his top two receivers in Sterns and Tinsley who combined for 3,304 yards and 31 touchdowns last year.  The offensive numbers are gaudy again this season, but that's more due to the lack of competition.  It's time to 'sell high' on this WKU team off that 73-0 win over FIU.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WKU) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams averaging 8.3 or more yards per attempt, after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Hilltoppers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. Sun Belt foes.  I'll gladly take Sun Belt over C-USA in this matchup as I strongly believe the Trojans are the better, more complete team.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/North Texas OVER 67.5

Expect some offensive fireworks between Florida Atlantic and North Texas Saturday and little defense being played.  These are two of the most up-tempo offenses in the country, and that's going to help us cash this OVER 67.5 ticket.

North Texas is scoring 32.2 points per game, averaging 475 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season while running 74 plays per game.  FAU is scoring 32.6 points per game, averaging 459 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play while running 73 plays per game.

Both defenses can be had, especially North Texas.  The Mean Green are allowing 38.0 points per game, 469 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play while defending 74 plays per game.  The Owls are allowing 26.2 points per game, 402 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play and 68 plays per game against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play, so they have a below average defense and haven't faced many good offenses.  They even got to play Purdue last week without their starting QB.

North Texas is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Mean Green last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in Mean Green last six games following a loss.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas +3

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset a Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.  They covered in a 35-27 win as 7-point favorites against Duke last week, a Blue Devils team that was 3-0 coming into that game.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 48.5 points per game, 472.5 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 400 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.3 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 246 rushing yards per game and 6.8 per carry.  They are also completing 71.3% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

Despite the 4-0 start against solid competition, Kansas is unranked.  I think the Jayhawks will be playing with a chip on their shoulder again this week because of it.  They won't have a letdown because they want that respect and to avenge a blowout loss at Iowa State last year.  This is an Iowa State team that isn't nearly as talented as they were last season.

The Cyclones are 3-1 but the three wins came against three terrible teams in SE Missouri State, Iowa and Ohio.  They met their match last week with a 24-31 home loss to Baylor.  And now this will be their toughest road test of the season against a Kansas team that fans are excited about, selling out last week against Duke.  It will be another sellout Saturday against the Cyclones.

Iowa State is 0-6 ATS when facing a team with a winning percentage above 75% over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 5-19 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall and covering by 18.1 points per game.  I have been on them for almost every game and I'm not about to jump off the train now.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +26.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Northwestern Wildcats.  After opening the season with a 31-28 upset win as 10.5-point dogs to Nebraska in the opener, the Wildcats have promptly gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, all as favorites.  Now they are back in their preferred underdog role, which is where Pat Fitzgerald always seems to get the most out of his teams.

Turnover luck has not been on the Wildcats' side as they have already committed 10 turnovers in four games, which is the biggest reason for their struggles.  They have moved the football just fine with an improved offense that is putting up 447.3 yards per game this season.  They are actually outgaining opponents by 55 yards per game despite the 1-3 record.  They will make enough plays on offense to stay within this inflated number against Penn State.

Penn State struggled last week in a 33-14 win over Central Michigan as 28-point favorites.  And it's worth noting the Chippewas were -4 in turnovers and still only lost by 19.  That makes me believe Northwestern can stay within this number if Central Michigan did.  I also think Penn State could be looking ahead to their showdown with Michigan.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nittany Lions after a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.  Turnover luck has been on their side as they are +8 in turnovers through four games.

Northwestern is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.  The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after a loss by 3 points or less.  Pat Fitzgerald is 34-21 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Northwestern.  The Nittany Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with Northwestern Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -10.5

Michigan crushed Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship Game last year.  I don't see anything changing in the rematch this year.  Michigan looks as good if not better than last year when they made the four-team playoff, and Iowa looks worse to this point.

After crushing Colorado State by 44, Hawaii by 46 and UConn by 59, Michigan finally got tested last week in a 34-27 win over Maryland as 17-point favorites.  I was happy to see Michigan get tested, and that will serve them well moving forward.  That's a vastly improved Maryland team that is going to give a lot of people trouble in the Big Ten this season.

Iowa's offense is not going to give Michigan any trouble.  The Hawkeyes are averaging just 17.0 points per game, 232.5 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season despite playing a pretty soft schedule of South Dakota State, Iowa State, Nevada and Rutgers.  Their 27-10 win over Rutgers last week was very misleading as they scored two defensive touchdowns and were outgained by 84 yards by the Scarlet Knights.  That misleading score is providing us with some line value on Michigan this week.

Spencer Petras is one of the worst quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing just 51.1% of his passes for 524 yards and 5.6 per attempt with only one touchdown and two interceptions in four games.  Usually Iowa can rely on its running game amidst poor QB play, but that's not the case this season.  They have one of the worst offensive lines of the Kirk Ferentz era.  The Hawkeyes are averaging just 102 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry this season.  

I just don't see how Iowa is going to be able to score enough points to stay within this number.  Their only hope is to get defensive and special teams touchdowns, but that's not going to happen.  Michigan has been mistake-free for the most part committing only two turnovers in four games.  Michigan's offense is even more potent this year with the switch to J.J. McCarthy at QB.  He is completing 80% of his passes and averaging 11.6 yards per attempt with a 5-to-0 TD/INT ratio while taking over for Cade McNamara.

Iowa has some injuries that are also contributing to its poor start this season.  Three of the top four receivers on the depth chart are out in Johnson, Vines and Ritter.  Two starters are out on defense in LB Jestin Jacobs and CB Jermari Harris as well.  Michigan is very healthy with only McNamara out, but that's addition by subtraction.  LB Hill-Green and LG Trevor Keegan are both questionable.

Plays against home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Iowa) - in conference games, off a win against a conference rival are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Iowa) - in conference games, off a road win against a conference rival are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Kirk Ferentz is 0-7 ATS in home games after leading in the last two games by 14 or more points at halftime as the coach of Iowa.  Take Michigan Saturday.

20* Washington/UCLA ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 66

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the UNDER between UCLA and Washington Friday night.  Both teams are 4-0 and both have put up gaudy numbers on offense against suspect competition defensively.  That has inflated this total to the point where there's value with the UNDER.

Washington is scoring 44.0 points per game and putting up 530.8 yards per game this season.  But they have played four terrible defenses in Kent State, Portland State, Michigan State and Stanford.  UCLA is averaging 41.8 points per game and 508.3 yards per game, but those numbers have also come against four terrible defenses in Bowling Green, Alabama State, South Alabama and Colorado.

These two offenses will finally meet some resistance against the best defenses they will have faced all season, and it's not even close.  UCLA is allowing just 18.0 points per game, 301.0 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.  Washington is allowing just 19.0 points per game, 302.0 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.  And that has come against three decent offenses in Michigan State, Stanford and Kent State.

These teams met last season with UCLA beating Washington 24-17 for just 41 combined points and a 55-point total.  This total is now 11 points higher than last year.  I get that Washington is a better offensive team under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer, but this is too big of an adjustment.

Both teams rely heavily on the run, which is going to keep the clock moving.  The Bruins average 38 attempts and 220 yards per game, while the Huskies average 36 attempts for 162 yards per game.  Both teams are elite at stopping the run.  The Huskies are allowing just 89 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry, while the Bruins are giving up 90 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Washington) - after scoring 31 points or more in three consecutive games against an opponent that has two consecutive games where 60 or more points were scored are 62-27 (69.7%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Huskies last 26 road games.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Bruins last 24 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Tulane/Houston ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -2.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Houston Cougars.  They have played a very tough schedule and have gotten through it at 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS.  They lost to Texas Tech and Kansas, beat UTSA which won 12 games last year, and also beat an improved Rice team that upset Louisiana the previous week.

Remember, Houston went 12-2 last year and returned 13 starters this season including QB Clayton Tune and stud receiver Tank Dell.  This isn't the start they wanted, but they realize they have everything ahead of them in the American Athletic.  Now they will be pumped for their conference opener Friday night as they host Tulane.

While Houston (36th) has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, Tulane (166th) has played one of the weakest.  The result has been a 3-1 start that featured an upset win at Kansas State.  That win had them overvalued last week, and I took advantage and backed Southern Miss as the Golden Eagles beat the Green Wave outright as 13-point underdogs.  And I'll gladly fade Tulane again as I still believe them to be overvalued from that K-State win.

Remember, Tulane went 2-10 last year.  No question the Green Wave are improved this season, but they should not be basically a PK on the road at Houston.  The Cougars have owned the Green Wave each of the last two seasons.  They won 49-31 at home in 2020 and 40-22 on the road in 2021.  Tune has thrown for 607 yards and 5 touchdowns in those two victories and figures to light them up again.  This game may be closer than the last two years, but Houston should still get it done by a FG or more.

The Green Wave are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Friday games.  The Cougars are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 Friday games.  The favorite is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cougars are 14-4 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Tulane is 2-7 ATS in its last nine trips to Houston.  Roll with Houston Friday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Bengals ML -180

I don't normally take favorites on the money line of -3.5 or higher, but I'm confident the Bengals are going to win this game.  I missed the early number on the Bengals and I could see this going higher.  So I'm willing to lay the money line as of Monday night knowing that it is likely to go higher.

The spot couldn't be worse for the Dolphins.  They are coming off an upset win over the Buffalo Bills in one of the most misleading box scores you will ever see.  They were outgained 212 to 497 by the Bills but somehow won.  They had just 39 plays on offense compared to 90 plays for Buffalo.  Their defense was on the field for over 40 of the 60 minutes.  That's a Buffalo team that was without 14 starters at one point in that game as well.

It's safe to say this Miami defense is gassed, and there will be a carryover effect here on this short week as they travel to face the Bengals.  There may not be a worse spot for any team the rest of the season in terms of rest.  Now the Dolphins have to try and stop one of the best offenses in the NFL in the Cincinnati Bengals on this short week.

The Dolphins are not sitting well in the injury department, either.  QB Tagovailoa has a back injury, WR Waddle has a groin injury, WR Wilson has a rib injury, T Little has a finger injury and T Armstead has a toe injury and all five are questionable on offense.  DT Davis has a knee injury, DT Sieler has a hand injury, CB Kohou has an ankle injury, S Jones has a chest injury, CB Howard has a groin injury, and S Holland has a neck injury and all are questionable.  This is quickly becoming one of the worst injury situations in the NFL.

So it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Dolphins after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS to start the season, and a great time to 'buy low' on the Bengals, who are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS but could easily be 3-0 instead.  In Week 1 they lost in OT to the Steelers despite outgaining them by 165 yards.  They lost due to committing five turnovers.  They lost 17-20 at Dallas in Week 2, but that's a Dallas team that is better than they get credit for even without Dak Prescott.

Last week, the Bengals took out their frustration with a 27-12 road win over the New York Jets.  Joe Burrow played with the fire that he played with when he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl.  And that spark will still be there this week as their backs are against the wall after this 1-2 start.  And they'll have no problem getting up for the unbeaten Dolphins, who are in a letdown spot off a win against their biggest division rivals in the Bills.  The Dolphins are feeling 'fat and happy' right now and won't be nearly as motivated as they were to beat Buffalo.

While Burrow gets a lot of the credit, it's the defense that was really responsible for the run to the Super Bowl last year.  This is arguably the most underrated defense in the NFL.  They held the Raiders to 19 points, the Titans to 16 points, the Chiefs to 24 points and the Rams to 23 points in their four playoff games last year.  They have picked up where they left off, allowing 18.3 points, 310.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play through three games this season.

The Bengals are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Home teams have such an advantage already on these Thursday night games due to the short week, but this advantage is even more in Cincinnati's favor now with Miami's defense defending 90 plays against the Bills last week.  The Bengals had a stress-free blowout win over the Jets and are the fresher team.  Take the Bengals on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Utah State/BYU ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 62

The Utah State Aggies and BYU Cougars play in a rivalry game Thursday night in Provo.  I look for points to be at a premium in this rivalry game.  BYU will get their points, but I don't think Utah State will do their part to score enough to get to 62 combined points in this one.

Utah State is way down compared to last season offensively.  The Aggies lost all of their top playmakers from last year's team.  It hasn't gone nearly as smoothly for QB Logan Bonner as it did last year.  The Aggies are only averaging 15.5 points, 345.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season.  This despite playing UConn, FCS Weber State and UNLV, which are three terrible defenses.  But the Aggies have held their own defensively, allowing just 5.6 yards per play against teams that average 5.9 yards per play.

Like I said, BYU will get their points, but I expect them to shut down Utah State.  The Cougars have a ton of talent on defense with all 11 starters back from last year.  They are holding teams to just 321.8 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play, holding teams 66 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play below their season averages to this point.

These teams met last year with BYU winning 34-20 for just 54 combined points and a 65.5-point total.  That was with an elite Utah State offense last year.  They have only adjusted this total down 3.5 points from last year, and that's not enough for how down Utah State's offense is.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Aggies last five games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Aggies last six non-conference games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Cougars last eight Thursday games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Aggies last six games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Aggies last seven games following an ATS loss.  These five trends combine for a 31-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Cowboys/Giants ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +1

The New York Giants are a fraudulent 2-0.  They had to come back from a 13-0 deficit in the second half to beat the Titans 21-20 in Week 1.  The Titans went on to lose 41-7 to the Bills in Week 2, so that win looks worse now.

Last week, the Giants beat the Panthers 19-16 despite getting outgained 3.8 yards per play to 5.1 yards per play.  They didn't deserve to win that game, and it's clear the Panthers aren't very good this season.  I think the luck runs out for the Giants this week.

Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Giants heading into this game.  They could be without their top two pass rushers and their best interior DL in Leonard Williams, who is doubtful.  They have cluster injuries at cornerback on defense, and WR Kedarius Toney is doubtful.  The Giants are lacking explosive plays as they have just two completions of over 20 yards on offense this season.

The Dallas Cowboys lost to the Bucs in Week 1, which isn't a bad loss.  They came back and pulled the 20-17 upset of the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2.  They outgained the Bengals 337 to 254 in total yards and 5.7 to 3.8 yards per play.  It was a dominant effort, and I just think the Cowboys are the better team even without Dak Prescott.

Cooper Rush went 19-of-31 passing for 235 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals.  This Cowboys defense is absolutely loaded, and that has shown against Tom Brady and Joe Burrow the first two weeks.  They have held those two teams to an average of just 300.5 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.

The Cowboys get great news in the injury department this week.  They get WR Michael Gallup back from injury, and two of their best defenders in LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs are both probable as well.  Their defense is by far the best unit on the field in this game, and I think their offense is just as good as the Giants if not better.

The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Dallas is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games vs. NFC East opponents, including 6-0 ATS in the last six.  The Giants are 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.  The Giants are frauds and will be exposed this week as their luck runs out against a better team in Dallas.  Roll with the Cowboys Monday.

15* Packers/Bucs NFC ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +2

This is more of a play against the Bucs than it is a play on Green Bay.  The Bucs are very fortunate to be 2-0 SU & ATS this season with all their injuries.  And it has gotten worse this week.  QB Tom Brady and G Shaq Mason are the only two healthy players for the Bucs on offense, and even Brady has a finger issue.  He was in obvious discomfort during portions of practice available to the media this week.

The Bucs are expected to be without their top two receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.  Julio Jones, Scotty Miller, Russell Gage and Breshad Perriman are also banged up and questionable.  They signed Cole Beasley off the street, so you know they are having WR problems.  They are without two starting offensive linemen in C Jensen and T Wells.  They will also likely be without T Donovan Smith, who is doubtful.

It's no wonder Tom Brady has looked pedestrian.  The Bucs are only averaging 19.5 points, 303.5 yards per game and 4.9 per play this season.  They should have lost to the Saints last week, who gave that game away by committing 5 turnovers, including 4 in a 9-play span in the 2nd half.  The Packers won't let them off the hook this week.

Green Bay got their running game going last week in a 27-10 win over Chicago.  They were also healthier at receiver and along the offensive line, and they enter this week very healthy.  They rushed for 203 yards against the Bears, and their ground game is as big of a strength as I can ever remember.  That's dangerous when you have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

The Bucs have been susceptible to the run this season, allowing 4.6 yards per carry.  The Saints rushed for over 100 yards and over 5.0 yards per carry against them last week, and that was without Alvin Kamara, who was out with an injury.  They signed run stuffer Akiem Hicks in the offseason, but he was injured against the Saints and is out at least 4 weeks.

The Packers are going to have much more success against this Tampa Bay defense than the Cowboys and Saints did.  And I expect Green Bay to shut down the Bucs as this is one of the better defenses the Packers have had in recent memory.  They are giving up just 16.5 points per game through two weeks.

The Packers are playing with double-revenge after losing their last two meetings with the Bucs, including one in the playoffs.  You know they have had this game circled all offseason.  The Packers 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after playing the Chicago Bears.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7

I grabbed the Jaguars at +7 early in the week.  I knew there was a chance Justin Herbert wouldn't play, and I liked them at +7 even if he did play.  Well, Herbert is likely out for this game as the line has been adjusted down from +7 to +3 as of Friday afternoon.  I like the Jaguars at +3 as well if he doesn't play.

Not to mention, the Chargers are also going to be without their top CB in J.C. Jackson, and their best WR in Keenan Allen is questionable with a hamstring injury.  Meanwhile, the injury report could not look better for the Jaguars.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.

The Jaguars outplayed Washington in the opener and should have won, outgaining them 6.2 to 5.8 yards per play.  They showed what they were capable of in Week 2 with a 24-0 victory over the Indianapolis Colts at home.  They outgained the Colts 331 to 218 and 4.9 to 4.5 yards per play.  

This looks like a much improved Jaguars team under first-hear head coach Doug Pedersen through two weeks already.  Pedersen has clearly gotten through to Trevor Lawrence, who looks like a completely different QB in Year 2.  He is completing 68.1% of his passes for 255 yards per game and a 3-to-1 TD/INT ratio with 7.1 yards per attempt.  Remember, Pedersen won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles.

I think the spot is a tough one for the Chargers even without the injuries.  They are coming off two huge division games to start the season, including a 24-27 loss at Kansas City, which is their most hated rival and the team they want to beat the most.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Jaguars this week.

Plays against home favorites (LA Chargers) - with a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after playing a game where 50 or more points were scored are 38-11 (77.6%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Jaguars Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New England Patriots +3

The New England Patriots are much better than they are getting credit for this season.  They are home underdogs this week after going on the road and handling the Pittsburgh Steelers in what was a much more dominant victory than the 17-14 final would indicate.  The Patriots outgained the Steelres 376 to 243 in total yards and 5.7 to 4.2 yards per play.

The opener for the Patriots was also misleading.  It was closer than the 20-7 final score against the Dolphins would indicate.  The Patriots were only outgained 271 to 307 in total yards and 5.0 to 5.2 yards per play.  That's the same Dolphins team that just came back from 21 points down to upset the Ravens on the road last week.

The biggest reason the Dolphins were able to come back was because the Ravens had injuries and poor play in their secondary.  Those issues have not been solved this week, and Mac Jones and company will pick apart their secondary just as the Dolphins did.  The Dolphins had 547 total yards and 42 points, and Tua Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns.

It's also worth noting the Ravens beat the Jets 24-9 in Week 1, but that was a misleading final score.  The Jets outgained the Ravens 380 to 274 in total yards.  So the Ravens have lost the stats each of thefirst two weeks, and they are in much worse shape than the Patriots injury-wise.  The Patriots clearly have the better defense in this one, and I trust Bill Belichick to come up with the right game plan to slow down Lamar Jackson.

After all, the Ravens have NEVER won a regular season game in New England since they moved to Baltimore.  The Patriots are 12-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 3 points or fewer.  This is the home opener for the Patriots and fans will pack the stands in anticipation of seeing their team for the first time.  They have one of the better home-field advantages in the league.  The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Colts AFC No-Brainer on Indianapolis +7 (-130)

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Indianapolis Colts.  This line would have been close to a PK to open the season.  So we are getting basically 7 points of value based off of the results from only two weeks of football.  And even those two weeks are misleading.

The Chiefs are 2-0 with a blowout win over a bad, injury ravaged Arizona team and a 27-24 win over the Chargers.  They did not deserve to beat the Chargers as there was a 99-yard pick 6 that changed that game.  They were outgained 401 to 319 in total yards by the Chargers.

The Colts outgained the Texans 517 to 299 in total yards in Week 1 and settled for a 20-20 tie in a game they should have won according to the stats.  Unfortunately, many of their best players were injured in that OT game and sat out against the Jaguars the next week.  Those injuries were the biggest reason the Colts lost 24-0 and got upset.  That's why this is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on them.

Now the Colts get many of those key players back this week.  They were without their top two receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce last week, which is the biggest reason the offense struggled.  But both are back this week for Matt Ryan.  It looks like DT DeForest Buckner will play this week for the Colts too as he is probable.  Almost all  the key players are probable with the exception of LB Shaq Leonard, who will sit out his third straight game to start the season.

The Colts are now with their backs against the wall looking for their first victory of the season, so you know we are going to get an 'A' effort, especially with a team like the Chiefs coming to town.  And this will be their home opener and a great atmosphere.  After being favored in their first two games, the Colts are back in the role of the underdog where they thrive.  Frank Reich's teams notoriously get off to slow starts to the season before improving rapidly as the season goes on, which is what happened last year even with Carson Wentz at QB.

Look for them to get Jonathan Taylor finally going this week against a Chiefs defense that is susceptible to the run.  He rushed for 1,811 yards and 18 TD Last season.  That will make life much easier on Matt Ryan, who has been in comeback mode for all eight quarters this season, so they haven't been able to establish the run.  The return of Pittman Jr. and Pierce at receiver will also open things up for this offense.

The Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a division game.  Indianapolis is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Colts are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Colts Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +3

It's time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers.  They have failed to cover the spread in nine consecutive games, but easily could have won and covered each of their first two games.  They lost on a 58-yard FG at the buzzer to the Browns in Week 1.  They lost by 3 to the Giants in Week 2 despite outgaining them 5.1 to 3.8 yards per play.

It's now or never for the Panthers, who match up well with the Saints.  That was evident last year as they won 26-7 at home as identical 3-point underdogs while outgaining them 383 to 128 in total yards.  They only lost 24-27 as 7-point dogs in New Orleans in the rematch.

The Saints have a lot of problems in the injury department right now.  Alvin Kamara sat out against the Bucs last week and is questionable to return.  They have OL injuries and WR injuries, plus Jameis Winston is playing through a fractured back.  That helps explain why they committed five turnovers against the Bucs last week to give that game away.  It won't get any easier against this Carolina defense this week.

Backing 0-2 teams against 1-1 teams in Week 3 have gone 30-13 ATS since 2010.  There's just always value backing these 0-2 teams with a worse record and their backs against the wall.  Winston is just 8-19-1 ATS as a favorite in his career.  Carolina is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games off an upset loss as a road favorite.

Plays against favorites (New Orleans) - a non playoff team from last season that finished with two consecutive wins in the first month of the season are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The underdog is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +13

Southern Miss is going to be one of the most improved teams in all of college football.  The Golden Eagles went 3-9 last year, had just 62 scholarship players, lost their Top 5 QB's on offense due to injury and actually started 10 different players at quarterback.  They started 1-9 and kept fighting, winning their final two games despite playing a RB at QB.

That's a sign of the players continuing to play hard for Will Hall.  Now Hall enters his second season with the team, players are familiar with his systems, and they have created a ton of depth due to all the injuries last year.  The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and can only get better health at QB.  Each of the top 10 tacklers are back on defense as well from a unit that was solid last year in giving up 27.9 points and 359 yards per game.

To no surprise to myself, the Golden Eagles are 3-0 ATS this season.  I took them and they covered in a 27-29 loss as 3.5-point underdogs to Liberty in the opener.  That's a Liberty team that nearly upset Wake Forest last week, losing 36-37 as 18-point road underdogs.  Unfortunately, QB Ty Keyes got injured in that opener against Liberty and it's probably the reason they lost.

Keyes sat out against Miami in Week 2, but they still managed to cover in a 30-7 loss at 27-point underdogs.  But Keyes returned last week to lead the Golden Eagles to a 64-10 win over Northwestern State as 34-point favorites.  He went 6-of-9 for 192 yards and three touchdowns before giving way to the backups.  He is a dual threat who has also rushed for 56 yards and a score on 12 carries this season.  Despite the tough schedule, the defense is balling out again holding opponents to 23.0 points per game, 375 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.

Tulane is also 3-0 ATS, but this team is the one being overvalued.  That's because the Green Wave are coming off a shocking 17-10 upset win as 13-point dogs at Kansas State.  But K-State is getting terrible QB play this season from Adrian Martinez, and it was a massive lookahead spot for the Wildcats with Oklahoma on deck this week.

Tulane's other two wins came against UMass and Alcorn State.  Those are two of the worst teams in the country in FBS and FCS, respectively.  Remember, the Green Wave went just 2-10 last season.  While they are improved as well, they should not be 13-point favorites over Southern Miss.  Especially with this now being a big letdown spot after the win over Kansas State, and a sandwich spot with Houston on deck next week.

Tulane is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games following an upset win as a road underdog.  The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Southern Miss is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take Southern Miss Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona +3

Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season.  They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah.  Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of.

Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job.  Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022.  They added in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback, and this already looks like one of the most improved teams in the country.

I backed Arizona in Week 1 as 6.5-point underdogs at San Diego State.  That was a no sweat winner as Arizona rolled to a 38-20 victory, gaining 461 total yards and holding the Aztecs to 232 yards, outgaining them by 229 yards.  De Laura lived up to the hype, throwing for 299 yards and four touchdowns with one pick in the win.

Arizona came back and lost to Mississippi State at home in Week 2, but then upset #1 Ranked FCS power North Dakota State 31-28 last week.  The Wildcats have been through the gauntlet already with a brutal schedule and have gotten through at 2-1 despite being underdogs in all three games.  Now they are a dog to California and they shouldn't be.

Cal is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country with only eight starters back.  I have not been impressed with them at all as they had a narrow win 20-14 over UNLV and beat Cal Davis 34-13 for their lone victories.  They did cover in a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame last week, but that's the same Notre Dame team that was upset by Marshall the previous week.  The Fighting Irish are clearly down.

This is a bad spot for Cal now after facing a program the caliber of Notre Dame on the road.  Now they return home where they have one of the worst home-field advantages in the country as fans just don't show up to their games.  Keep in mind Arizona's lone win last season came against Cal and they dominated, outgaining them 331 to 122, or by 209 total yards.  They were -3 in turnovers and still won that game.  Arizona is improved this season, while Cal is worse, so it should lead to another upset victory for the Wildcats.

Cal is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games after allowing 7 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +7.5

There have been few spots I can recall that have been as bad as this one for Appalachian State.  I faded them with success with Troy as double-digit underdogs last week because they were in such a bad spot.  And after they beat Troy on a hail mary in a game they should have lost, this is now an even worse spot.

In Week 1 Appalachian State lost a 63-61 shootout to North Carolina.  They pulled the shocking 17-14 upset at Texas A&M in Week 2.  Texas A&M is clearly down this season, though.  And last week they got that hail mary on the final play of the game on the tip drill that was completely bogus.  They are feeling fat and happy right now, but also fatigued given that all three games went to the wire decided by 4 points or less.

You know who is not fatigued? James Madison.  The Dukes are coming off a bye week after winning each of their first two games in blowout fashion.  They won 44-7 over Middle Tennessee State as 4.5-point favorites in the opener, covering by 32.5 points.  They outgained the Blue Raiders by 429 yards.  That win looks even better now after Middle Tennessee went on to cover their next two games by a combined 52.5 points.  The Dukes also beat Norfolk State 63-7 as 41.5-point favorites in Week 2 and covered by 14.5 points.

I think the betting markets are low on James Madison because it's their first season as an FBS school.  But remember, James Madison went 12-2 last season and has made the FCS playoffs eight consecutive seasons, including the championship game three times.  They have been the second-best team in the FCS behind North Dakota State.  Curt Cignetti is in his fourth season here and has continued the winning tradition.

I think the Dukes are already among the best teams in the Sun Belt, which is saying a lot because this is perhaps the most underrated conference in the country.  They will show it this week in what is a great spot for them and a terrible one for Appalachian State.  College Gameday was at Appalachian State last week as well, which only adds to the letdown spot for the Mountaineers.  The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -7

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset a Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 53.0 points per game, 454.0 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 379 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.4 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 260 rushing yards per game and 7.4 per carry.  They are also completing 67.6% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

No question Duke is improved this season, too, but I question their level of competition to this point.  The Blue Devils are 3-0 against Temple, Northwestern and North Carolina A&T.  Temple is one of the worst teams in FBS, Northwestern may be the worst team in the Big Ten after losing to Southern Illinois last week, and NC A&T is one of the worst teams in FCS.  Duke went 3-9 last year, was outscored by 17.0 points per game and outgained by 99 yards per game.

Kansas has faced the much tougher schedule with road games at WVU and Houston already.  Simply put, oddsmakers and the betting public haven't caught up to how good this Kansas team is, and we'll keep taking advantage. Fans are now excited about this team, and they should have the best home-field advantage they have had in years.  

The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS their last six games overall and covering the spread by an average of 21 points per game.  Duke is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games with a total of 63 or higher and losing by 37.0 points per game in this spot.  The Blue Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record and losing by 34.1 points per game.  These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Jayhawks.  Take Kansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kent State +45

Washington and Oklahoma look like two of the best teams in the country.  Well, Kent State only lost by 25 to Washington and by 30 to Oklahoma.  Now they are catching 45 points against another one of the best teams in Georgia.  I think they can cover this number against a Georgia team that won't be that interested in this game.

This is a sandwich spot for Georgia, coming off a win over South Carolina in their SEC opener and having another SEC game on deck against Missouri.  We saw them fail to cover in a similar situation already once this season.  After beating Oregon in their opener, and having their SEC opener on deck against South Carolina, they only beat lowly Samford 33-0 as 53.5-point favorites.

Kent State flexed their muscle with a 63-10 win over Long Island last week.  That was essentially a bye as their starters got to rest in the second half.  That's big because the Golden Flashes won't run out of gas in the second half even if they are getting beat up a little.  They should keep coming and fight for us to cover this inflated number.  I doubt Georgia even scores 45 points in this one.  

Kent State did move the ball on Oklahoma and Washington, averaging 318 yards per game and 4.5 per play against them.  Head coach Sean Lewis is a great offensive mind.  The Golden Flashes averaged 49.8 points per game two seasons ago and 33.0 points per game last year.  While the offense won't be as good, this does appear to be the best defense Lewis has had in his five seasons here.  New defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson has made an impact after spending the past eight seasons at Northern Iowa, including finishing as a Top 15 FCS defense each of the last three years.

Kirby Smart is 1-11 ATS in home games after a cover as a double-digit favorite as the coach of Georgia.  Roll with Kent State Saturday.

20* Virginia/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 53

The Virginia Cavaliers scored 34.6 points per game last season and averaged 514 yards per game.  They brought back all of their top playmakers at receiver and QB Brennan Armstrong, who threw for 4,449 yards and 31 touchdowns last season, while also rushing for nine scores.

The Cavaliers have had no problem moving the football again this season, but they have committed eight turnovers in two games, and they haven't scored as many points as they should have as a result.  They are scoring just 18.3 points per game.  They had 505 total yards against Richmond and 515 total yards against Old Dominion while being held in check by a good Illinois defense.

But the lack of points along with three consecutive UNDERS for Virginia to start the season has provided some value with the OVER this week.  This total should be much higher than 53.  It's only a matter of time before this offense starts turning those yards into points, and this Virginia defense isn't very good after allowing 31.8 points and 466 yards per game last season.

Syracuse has one of the most improved offenses in the country.  They brought in Virginia offensive coordinator Robert Anae and he is getting the most out of this Syracuse offense.  The Orange are averaging 37.0 points per game and 5.9 yards per play despite playing a tough schedule that has included Louisville and Purdue.

Garrett Shrader is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the country under Anae's watch.  He is completing 66.2% of his passes for 705 yards with an 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 202 yards and three scores.  Sean Tucker rushed for 1,496 yards and 12 TD last season and is one of the best backs in the country.

Armstrong should have a field day throwing the football against this Syracuse defense that was just torched for 424 passing yards by Purdue last week.  I also expect Shrader to put up points at will on this Virginia defense, and for Armstrong to keep pace.  It will be perfect conditions inside the Carrier Dome for a track meet Friday night, too.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (Virgina) - in a game involving two good offensive teams that average 390 to 440 yards per game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game are 27-6 (81.8%) over the last five seasons.  The OVER is 13-5 in Cavaliers last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Steelers/Browns AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -4

The Cleveland Browns should be 2-0 and the Pittsburgh Steelers should be 0-2.  But since both come in at 1-1, this line is closer than it should be.  I've been way more impressed with the Cleveland Browns than the Pittsburgh Steelers to this point.  And I fully expect them to win this game by a touchdown or more Thursday night.

The Browns beat the Panthers 26-24 on the road in Week 1 and deserved to win that game.  They outgained the Panthers by 94 yards and held them to just 261 total yards.  Then last week they were beating the Jets 30-17 with under two minutes left before a miracle happened.  The Jets scored two touchdowns and got an onside kick in the final two minutes to pull out the victory.

You know the Browns are going to be chapping at the bit to get back on the field and erase that sour taste out of their mouth.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to beat the hated rival Steelers Thursday night.

The Steelers had no business beating the Bengals in the opener.  They won 23-20 (OT) despite getting outgained by 167 yards by the Bengals.  That's because the Bengals gave the game away with 5 turnovers and STILL had a chance to win the game with an extra point on the final play of the game, or a FG in OT, both which were no good.  The Steelers were dominated again last week by the Patriots in a 14-17 loss that was a bigger blowout than the final score as they were outgained by 133 yards.

Pittsburgh is missing its best player in TJ Watt, who had 22.5 sacks last year and won Defensive Player of the Year.  He is neck-and-neck with Aaron Donald as the best defender in the NFL.  The Steelers really miss him, and their weakness has been stopping the run the past couple seasons.

That has been the case again this season as the Steelers are allowing 128 rushing yards per game through two games, and that came against a passing team in the Bengals that was way behind the entire game and against the Patriots.  The Steelers are in trouble going up against this Cleveland juggernaut, which is rushing for 200.5 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry.

This game will certainly be played on the ground with 20 MPH winds forecast for Cleveland Thursday night.  The Steelers are only rushing for 83 yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season and Najee Harris is clearly banged up.  The Browns are only allowing 73.5 rushing yards per game this season and 3.8 per carry.

If the game does go to the air, I trust Jacoby Brissett more than Mitch Trubisky.  Brissett is completing 65.6% of his passes this season and is a dual threat with 53 rushing yards on 10 attempts.  He is averaging 6.2 per attempt.  Mitch Trubisky is completing just 59.2% of his passes and averaging only 5.1 yards per attempt.  He has been the second-worst QB in the NFL through two weeks.

Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game.  The Browns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.  If the Browns didn't blow that game against the Jets last week, they would be bigger favorites this week.  We'll take advantage.  Roll with the Browns Thursday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Coastal Carolina/Georgia State OVER 61.5

Coastal Carolina is loaded on offense again this season.  They scored 37.2 points per game in 2020 and followed it up with 40.9 points per game in 2021.  The constant?  That would be QB Grayson McCall, who is back again this season to lead the Chanticleers on offense.

McCall has led this Chanticleers offense to 35.7 points per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  He is completing 70.4% of his passes for 733 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games, while also rushing for 53 yards and a score.

The problem for the Chanticleers this season is that their defense only returned three starters and lost seven of their top eight tacklers.  There are holes in their defense as they have given up 27.0 points per game.  And that has come against three poor offensive teams in Army, Gardner-Webb and Buffalo.  Both Army and Buffalo like to slow the game down, too, or the numbers would be worse on defense and better for Coastal Carolina on offense to this point.

Georgia State is loaded on offense again this season.  The Panthers returned eight starters from a unit that put up 28.2 points per game last season, including QB Darren Granger.  The Panthers are averaging 27.7 points per game against a brutal schedule of South Carolina, North Carolina and Charlotte.  That's why they are 0-3.

The Panthers have been gashed defensively, allowing 37.3 points per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They just gave up 42 points and 501 yards to Charlotte last week.  Now on a short week, their defense is probably still tired, which can also be said for Coastal Carolina after a hard-fought battle with Buffalo.  Look for the offenses to have the advantage on this short week.

These teams played in an absolute shootout last year with Georgia State winning 42-40 for 82 combined points.  Coastal Carolina clearly has their defense figured out, also scoring 51 points against the Panthers in 2020 two years ago.  These teams should have no problem topping 62 combined points in the rematch.

The OVER is 6-0 in Coastal Carolina's last six games following a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.  The OVER is 18-5 in Chanticleers last 23 September games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Panthers last five Thursday games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* WVU/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on West Virginia ML -125

The West Virginia Mountaineers could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-2.  As a result of their poor record, they are grossly undervalued heading into this game with Virginia Tech.  We'll take advantage and 'buy low' on the Mountaineers as they are clearly better than the Hokies this season.

West Virginia lost 31-38 at Pitt in the opener in a game they should have won.  But they threw a fluky pick-six with the game tied late in the 4th quarter that bounced off a wide open receivers' hands and into a Pitt defender, who returned it for a TD for the difference.  They also outgained Kansas by 81 yards but lost in OT.  

Pitt went on to take Tennessee to OT, which is an impressive result.  Kansas went on to upset Houston, which is an impressive result.  So the level of competitive WVU has faced thus far has been very tough, and they should be 3-0.  USC transfer QB JT Daniels has injected life into this WVU offense.

Daniels is completing 64.4% of his passes for 743 yards with a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  He is leading a WVU offense that is averaging 46.0 points, 509.7 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  The defense has been solid as well, holding opponents to 328 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.

Virginia Tech has been favored in every game this season and has played a very soft schedule.  The wins have come against Wofford and Boston College.  They failed to cover in a 20-point win over Wofford as 39-point favorites.  They beat a Boston College team that is way worse than most expected coming into the season.  And most concerning, they were upset by Old Dominion in the opener.

While West Virginia is a team on the rise in the Big 12 and with chemistry under fourth-year head coach Neal Brown, Virginia Tech is a team in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Brent Pry.  They returned just 11 starters this season.  While the Hokies have a solid defense, their offense is pitiful as they returned only four starters on that side of the ball.  They are averaging just 23.7 points, 366.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season despite playing such a soft schedule.

The Hokies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a win.  Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take West Virginia Thursday.

20* Vikings/Eagles ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia ML -130

The Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings are popular picks to win the NFC this season.  I like both teams and even backed the Vikings last week in their victory over the Packers.  But I'm going against the Vikings this week as this is a clear letdown spot now, and they are getting too much respect for that win over the Packers.

That was a Packers team that was rusty after not playing Aaron Rodgers in the preseason, so he didn't have time to get chemistry with his new receivers.  Plus, the Packers were missing both starting offensive tackles and arguably their best receiver in Allen Lazard.  They were easy to defend, and the Vikings took advantage in a 23-7 victory.

The Eagles will not be easy to defend.  They are loaded on offense this season.  They were awesome in the second half of last season, and now they brought in AJ Brown from the Tennessee Titans.  They have weapons all over the field, and Jalen Hurts is quickly becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  He just doesn't get the respect that other quarterbacks with his skill set do, like Lamar Jackson.

Hurts led the Eagles to a 38-35 win at Detroit in Week 1.  Keep in mind that was a bigger blowout than the final score would suggest as the Eagles led 38-21 entering the 4th quarter before letting off the gas.  Hurts threw for 243 yards while also rushing for 90 yards and a score.  The Eagles rushed for 216 yards as a team and will test that Vikings front seven, unlike the Packers.

The Eagles are also one of the healthiest teams in the NFL entering Week 2.  The only key player they are missing is DE Derek Barnett.  I think their defense is better than it showed in Week 1 as they were gashed on the ground by the Lions, but they made life miserable on Jared Goff for the first three quarters.  The Vikings are a pass-happy team now, which fits the strength of the Eagles which is their secondary and ability to defend the pass.

Fans are excited about this Philadelphia team and it will be a hostile atmosphere for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings Monday night.  When the Eagles are good, they have some of the best fans in the NFL.  Cousins has always struggled in primetime.  He is 2-9 all-time on Monday Night Football.  The Vikings are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 Monday games.  The Eagles should be 3-point favorites here at least.  I'll gladly take them on the Money Line to be safe.   Bet the Eagles Monday.

20* Bears/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Green Bay -10

This is the rare 'buy low' spot on a favorite and 'sell high' spot on an underdog.  The Packers are coming off a 23-7 loss to the Vikings on the road in the opener.  That's an improved Vikings team, and a Packers team that was rusty coming out of training camp, similar to last year when they lost 38-3 in the opener to the Saints before coming back to blow out the Lions 35-17.

The Bears are coming off a shocking 19-10 victory over the 49ers last week.  They trailed 10-0 and looked dead, but then some breaks went their way and they took advantage in the monsoon.  The Bears won that game despite getting outgained 331 to 204 by the 49ers, or by 127 total yards.  They were also outgained 4.9 yards per play to 3.6 yards per play, or by 1.3 yards per play.  They really had no business winning that game.

Now the Bears have to face a pissed off Packers team.  This is a Bears team that is legitimately one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that will show Sunday.  The offense lost Allen Robinson and the defense lost Khalil Mack to get even worse in the offseason.  Those were arguably their two best players.  Justin Fields is still a work in progress and lacking weapons, and the defense is not very good, especially up front.

Christian Watson dropped a sure TD that could have changed that game against the Vikings last week.  These young receivers will be much more comfortable at home at Lambeau Field after playing in a hostile atmosphere in Minnesota.  Plus, both starting offensive tackles and WR Allen Lazard sat out last week, and all three returned to practice this week and could be back.

This is a perfect spot to back the Packers.  Green Bay is 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  Aaron Rodgers has a 26-to-1 TD/INT ratio during this 11-0 run, so he tends to be at his best and bring out the best in his teammates.  Teams like the Bears that pulled off an upset as an underdog of 6 points or more in Week 1 and now are a dog of 6 or more again in Week 2 are 19-48-1 ATS in their last 68 tries.

The Packers own the Bears, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with four consecutive wins by double-digits.  Dating back further, Green Bay is 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points and losing by 19.7 points per game in this spot.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Las Vegas Raiders -5.5

I can see why the Raiders have gotten steamed from -3 up to -5.5 this week and I believe it is justified.  I love the spot for the Raiders coming off a divisional road loss to the Chargers.  The Raiders only lost 24-19 despite being -3 in turnovers and would have covered the 3.5-point spread if they had gotten the 2-point conversion.

Now they are excited for their home opener and it will be a great atmosphere in Las Vegas as fans are really starting to take to this team.  There's a lot to like about the Raiders in 2022.  They brought in head coach Josh McDaniels, signed one of the best receivers in the NFL in Davante Adams, and also brought in one of the best pass rushers the NFL has ever seen in Chandler Jones from Arizona.

The fact that they have Jones gives them a huge advantage here.  He will be able to relay to the defense what Arizona likes to run on offense all week in practice to get his defense prepared for Kyler Murray, Kliff Kingsbury and company.

Arizona lost 44-21 in Week 1 to the Kansas City Chiefs while getting outgained 488 to 282, or by 206 total yards.  And it was an even bigger blowout than those final stats would suggest.  The Cardinals were down 37-7 and scored two touchdowns in garbage time in the 4th quarter.  Their final three drives added 147 total yards to their final tally, so they only had 59 total yards when it was 37-7.

The Cardinals really miss WR DeAndre Hopkins, who is out the first six games with a suspension.  They were without DE J.J. Watt last week as well.  TE Zach Ertz and WR Rondale Moore are questionable and doubtful, respectively.  They also lost WR Christian Kirk in free agency.  They are basically down three of their top four receivers from last year.  While the Cardinals are dealing with a ton of injuries right now, the Raiders are remarkably healthy.

The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  I hate being on the side that everyone is on in the NFL, but this is one of the rare times I will be as the Cardinals just have too many injuries to overcome, and this is a great spot for the Raiders in their home opener.  Vegas should win this game by a touchdown or more no problem.  Take the Raiders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +10.5

I always like fading teams that won the Super Bowl the previous year because it's so hard to repeat.  There tends to be a hangover effect, too.  Same can be said for Super Bowl losers.  I successfully faded both the Rams and Bengals last week as they were the Super Bowl winner and loser, respectively, and both had no shows in Week 1.

Now everyone expects the Rams to bounce back in Week 2, but I'm not buying it.  The offseason losses were huge for the Rams as they parted ways with LB Von Miller, WR Odell Beckham Jr, WR Robert Woods, G Austin Corbett and OT Andrew Whitworth.  The loss to Whitworth cannot be overstated as he was the leader on this offense.  Tackle Joe Notebloom, who replaced Whitworth, is banged up and questionable.

Matthew Stafford suffered an elbow injury that kept him out of training camp and was clearly rusty in the opener.  He threw three interceptions and was sacked seven times by the Buffalo Bills in the 31-10 loss.  They offensive line got annihilated.  Stafford didn't have any chemistry with anyone other than Cooper Kupp.  And keep in mind the Bills committed 4 turnovers and STILL won by 21 points.

The Rams may be better this week, but asking them to beat the Falcons by double-digits is asking too much.  Atlanta deserved to beat New Orleans in the opener, but lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 27-26.  I loved their balance on offense as they racked up 416 total yards on a very good New Orleans defense.  They rushed for 201 yards, and Marcus Mariota had a clean pocket the entire game and threw for 215 yards while also rushing for 72 yards.

I'm just going to keep fading this Rams team until proven otherwise as I think they are being priced like one of the top teams in the league when in reality they are down this season compared to last year when they won the Super Bowl.  They are also fat and happy and won't be as motivated as they were last season.  The Falcons will come back hungry after blowing that big lead to the Saints last week.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* Patriots/Steelers AFC ANNIHILATOR on New England ML -130

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the New England Patriots and to 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  The Patriots were much better than their 20-7 loss to the Dolphins would indicate in Week 1, while the Steelers were much worse than their 23-20 upset victory over the Cincinnati Bengals would suggest last week.

The Patriots were -3 in turnovers against the Dolphins last week, including a strip sack that was returned for a touchdown.  The Patriots were only outgained by 36 yards by the Dolphins and 0.2 yards per play.  Their defense played well in holding the Dolphins to 5.2 yards per play, but the offense wasted a lot of trips in Miami territory.

The Steelers had no business beating the Bengals, and I was on the Steelers last week.  They were outgained 432 to 267 by the Bengals in that game.  But the Bengals gave the game away as Joe Burrow committed five turnovers.  Despite the five turnovers, the Steelers still needed a blocked extra point on the final play of regulation and a missed FG in overtime to win that game.

Mitchell Trubisky was not very good as he went 21-of-38 for 194 yards.  This Pittsburgh offense is one of the worst in the league.  The defense suffered a big blow with the loss of TJ Watt late in the 2nd half of the game, and he is now out at least six weeks with a torn pec.  His loss cannot be overstated as he had 22.5 sacks last year and is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL.  Mac Jones will have a lot more time to survey the field without having to deal with Watt.

Bill Belichick off a loss is absolute gold and has been his entire coaching career.  Belichick is 61-37 ATS following a loss as the coach of New England.  Belichick is 12-3 ATS after scoring 9 points or fewer as the coach of the Patriots.  Belichick is 11-3 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival as the coach of New England.  Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS after being outgained by 100 yards or more last game over the last three seasons, coming back to lose by 11.8 points per game in this spot.  New England is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Patriots Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Saints +3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting a lot of love for their 19-3 victory over the Dallas Cowboys.  That was more bad Dallas than good Tampa Bay.  The Bucs have a ton of injury issues early in the season, especially on offense that won't have Tom Brady hitting on all cylinders.

Brady missed a lot of training camp.  There are huge offensive line issues for the Bucs.  C Ryan Jensen is out with a knee injury, T Donovan Smith left with an elbow injury in the 3rd quarter against the Cowboys and is questionable, and backup rookie LG Wells has been terrible.  T Tristan Wirfs is questionable.  They are also without WR Chris Godwin after leaving the Cowboys game with a hamstring injury.  Both LB Leonard Fournette and WR Mike Evans are questionable, too.

The Saints are getting disrespected after needing a late comeback to beat the Falcons, 27-26 last week.  Jameis Winston was awesome with the game on the line, completing 13-of-16 passes for 216 yards and a pair of touchdowns to Michael Thomas in the 4th quarter alone.  Winston is now 6-2 as a starter for the Saints with a 16-to-3 TD/INT ratio.

The Saints simply own the Buccaneers and Brady.  The Saints are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Dennis Allen just had Brady figured out.  The Saints have gotten pressure on 32% of dropbacks by Brady, whereas he is only pressured 20% of the time against all other teams.  Brady averages just 3.8 yards per attempt when pressure.  There's no question the Saints are going to get pressure on Brady against this suspect, injury-ravaged Tampa Bay offensive line.

The Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win by more than 14 points.  The Saints are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as underdogs.  New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

20* Fresno State/USC FOX Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State +12.5

Jeff Tedford is back in the Valley after guiding the Fresno State Bulldogs to a Mountain West title in 2018 while going 12-2.  He inherits a very talented team, which made his decision to come back easy.  The Bulldogs have 15 starters back this year, including star QB Jake Haener, who is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.

Haener is coming off a season in which he completed 67.1% of his passes for 4,096 yards with a 33-to-9 TD/INT ratio in which he led the Bulldogs to a 10-3 season.  Two of the losses were by one score with a 24-31 loss at Oregon as 20-point dogs and a 24-27 loss at Hawaii.  They also upset another Pac-12 team in UCLA as 11-point road dogs.  So they have proven they can play with the big boys of the Pac-12.

They proved it again last week in a 32-35 loss to Oregon State.  They deserved to win that game as they racked up 492 total yards and outgained the Beavers by 94 yards.  That's an Oregon State team that is coming off a bowl season last year and is loaded again this year.  Oregon State crushed Boise State in the opener as well, so it was an impressive loss.

The Bulldogs will have no problem getting back up off the mat this week to face USC.  Haener is pissed his wasn't recruited by USC and will take it out on them.  USC is getting a lot of love after opening 2-0 SU & and 2-0 ATS with blowout wins over overmatched opponents in Rice and Stanford.

Both games were closer than the final scores.  USC is +8 in turnover differential through two games.  The Trojans had three interceptions returned for touchdowns against Rice.  Their 41-28 win over Stanford was much closer than that as Stanford turned it over four times.  Fresno State is better than Stanford with a lot more team speed.  They can match the Trojans score for score on offense and keep up with their athletes at WR defensively.  Stanford and Rice could not match their foot speed.

Fresno State is now 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 road games.  Fresno State is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss.  Plays on any team (Fresno State) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season are 71-28 (71.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Fresno State Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland -2.5

The Maryland Terrapins are a team on the rise in the Big Ten.  They finally made a bowl game for the first time since 2016 last year and crushed Virginia Tech 54-10 to improve to 7-6 on the season.  Now they enter Year 4 under Mike Locksley, have some chemistry finally, and have his best team yet with 16 returning starters.

The offense is loaded with nine returning starters and that has been on display in the first few games this season.  The Terrapins have averaged 43.5 points and 532.5 yards per game in crushing both Buffalo and Charlotte.  Junior QB Taulia Tagovailoa is completing 78.5% of his passes for 681 yards with four touchdowns and only two interceptions while averaging 10 yards per attempt.  He is one of the best QB's in the country, and he has one of the most talented WR's corps in the country in Jarrett, Jones and Copeland who have combined for 24 receptions, 387 yards and four touchdowns.

SMU has also blown out a pair of overmatched opponents in North Texas 48-10 and Lamar 45-16.  They are playing under a first-year head coach in Rhett Lashlee, so they were fortunate to get a few cupcakes to start.  I don't expect them to handle this huge step up in class well.  It will be a hostile atmosphere as this will be a night game in College Park at 7:30 EST Saturday night.  Fans are more excited about the Terrapins than they have been in a long time, so it should be a great atmosphere.

I'm shocked oddsmakers are calling these even teams or saying SMU would be favored on a neutral even when you factor in home-field advantage.  Maryland should be closer to a 7-point favorite at home in this matchup.  SMU is 19-34 ATS in its last 53 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Mustangs are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 road games after scoring 37 points or more in their previous game.  SMU is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.

Plays on home favorites (Maryland) - in a game involving two dominant teams that have outgained their opponents by 1.2 yards per play or more, after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in two consecutive games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Toledo +32

Ohio State has not been impressive at all this season.  I successfully faded them with Notre Dame +17 in the opener in their sloppy 21-10 victory.  That win looks even worse now after Notre Dame was just upset by Marshall last week.

I wish I would have faded the Buckeyes again last week as they failed to cover as 44.5-point favorites in a 45-12 win over Arkansas State.  I won't make that same mistake here and I'll back Toledo catching 32 points against the Buckeyes.  This is a flat spot for Ohio State with the Big Ten opener against Wisconsin on deck next week.  I think they just want to get out of here with a win and won't be worried about getting margin.

I don't think they can get margin on this Toledo team even if they tried.  This is an underrated, loaded Toledo team that returned 15 starters this season.  Toledo went 7-6 last year with five losses by 7 points or fewer.  That's how close they were to being 12-1.  That included a 3-point loss at Notre Dame as 17-point underdogs.

The Rockets are consistently one of the best teams in the MAC and I believe they are the top team this season, and it's not really even close.  They have handled their business in winning their first two games in blowout fashion while outscoring a pair of overmatched opponents 92-10.  This team will relish the opportunity to face a Big Ten team in Ohio State in their home state.  This is essentially their National Championship game.  

We saw how they handled this type of game last year with a 3-point loss at Notre Dame.  The Rockets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Ohio State is once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers this week due to that No. 3 National ranking.    They will get more of a fight from Toledo than they bargained for this week.  Roll with Toledo Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kansas +9

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

Last week Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against Pitt in their opener.  I think the Jayhawks will give the Houston Cougars a run for their money and likely improve to 3-0 with another upset in Week 3.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 55.5 points per game, 461.0 yards per game and 8.2 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 345.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 249 rushing yards per game and 7.7 per carry.  They are also completing 70.8% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

Houston came into the season as one of the most overrated teams in the country after going 12-2 last year.  They were extremely fortunate to have that record as they went 4-0 in one score games.  They lost by 15 to Cincinnati and by 17 to Texas Tech, the two best teams they faced.  I have not been impressed at all with Houston as they have lost the stats in each of their first two games and should be 0-2.

Houston managed just 346 total yards and was outgained by 95 yards by UTSA in a 37-35 (OT) victory in their opener as 3.5-point favorites.  Their luck ran out last week as they lost 30-33 (OT) to Texas Tech as 3.5-point underdogs, getting outgained by 115 yards and managing just 355 total yards of offense.  

Those are two bad defensive teams in Texas Tech and UTSA, so averaging just 350.5 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play against them is terrible.  QB Clayton Tune isn't as good as he gets credit for, and they are only rushing for 3.2 yards per carry.  Now the Cougars are gassed after playing two straight OT games and won't have much left in the tank for Kansas this week.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas) - a bad team from last season that was outscored by 17 or more points per game are 36-12 (75%) ATS since 1992.  The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Cougars are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win.  Take Kansas Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on UL-Monroe +49.5

This is a terrible spot for the Alabama Crimson Tide.  They are coming off a 20-19 win at Texas last week in what was the biggest game in college football.  Now they have their SEC opener on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Crimson Tide.  Nick Saban is the king of just trying to get through these games and taking the air out of the ball in the second half.  He isn't going to be trying to beat UL-Monroe by 50-plus, which is what it's going to take to cover this massive spread.

We have a good data point here with UL-Monroe losing 52-10 to Texas in the opener, or by 42 points.  Texas obviously took Alabama to the wire and would have won if their starting QB didn't get hurt, and had a few calls not gone Alabama's way.  It's worth noting Texas was fortunate to score 52 points as LA-Monroe actually held them to just 383 total yards.

Monroe came back last week and beat a very good FCS opponent in Nicholls State 35-7 as 4.5-point favorites, covering by 23.5 points.  They racked up 434 yards on Nicholls State and outgained them by 124 total yards.  They were only outgained by 124 yards by Texas, so it's pretty impressive they are even in the yardage battle on the season despite playing a team the caliber of Texas.

Of course, we saw last year what the Warhawks were capable of.  They pulled off three huge upsets over Troy 29-16 as 23-point dogs, over Liberty 31-28 as 33-point dogs and over South Alabama 41-31 as 13-point dogs.  They also took Sun Belt champ Louisiana to the wire in a 16-21 loss as 21-point dogs, and only lost 14-27 at LSU as 29-point dogs, a fellow SEC team with Alabama.

Now the Warhawks are in the second year in Terry Bowden's systems and he is doing a good job of recruiting here and trying to turn this program around.  Eight starters are back on offense, and the defense has played very well thus far.  QB Chandler Rogers got his feet wet as a freshman last year with a 9-to-3 TD/INT ratio and 367 rushing yards in six starts.  

He has been superb thus far, completing 77.3% of his passes and averaging 8 yards per attempt in two starts in 2022, while also rushing for 63 yards and a score as a dual threat.  This guy can help the Warhawks move the ball and extend drives and burn clock against this Alabama defense.  And like I said, Alabama isn't going to run up the score as Saban has respect for Bowden.

UL-Monroe is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU win by more than 20 points.  Alabama is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. Sun Belt opponents.  The Sun Belt rolled last week, going 11-3 ATS which included upsets by Appalachian State over Texas A&M, Marshall over Notre Dame, Georgia Southern over Nebraska and South Alabama over Central Michigan.  This is likely the most underrated conference in the country.  Roll with Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* Troy/Appalachian State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy +12.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Appalachian State Mountaineers.  They followed up their thrilling 63-61 loss to North Carolina in the opener with a 17-14 upset of Texas A&M as 18-point road underdogs last week.  They are feeling fat and happy after beating an SEC team, and they now overvalued as a result, which is a double whammy.  They also won't have much left in the tank for Troy after both games went to the wire.

Troy is no pushover.  I expect the Trojans to be one of the most improved teams in the Sun Belt this season with 18 starters back from a team that went 5-7 last year.  Only two of the losses were by more than two scores.

Troy covered the 21.5-point spread at Ole Miss in the opener in a 10-28 road loss.  They came back last week with a 38-17 win over Alabama A&M.  That was a 31-3 game before they called off the dogs.  QB Gunnar Watson is completing 70.4% of his passes for 626 yards with a 5-to-3 TD/INT ratio through two games and the offense is vastly improved.

Of course, the defense is what gets me the most excited about Troy.  They allowed just 337 total yards per game last season and brought back nine starters and eight of their top nine tacklers from that unit.  Holding Ole Miss to just 28 points is no small feat and shows what they are capable of.  I think they can hang with Appalachian State in a defensive battle this week, and I also kind of like the UNDER as a result, but decided to go with Troy instead due to the terrible spot for the Mountaineers.  Take Troy Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on New Mexico State/Wisconsin UNDER 46

Jerry Kill is a first-year head coach at New Mexico State.  He has always been a conservative head coach focusing on defense and ball control, and that is clearly is MO here at New Mexico State thus far.  Kill has nine defensive starters back for the Aggies.  The defense is the strength of the team as only four starters are back on offense.  

Kill knows his best chance to win is to shorten games and control the ball on offense.  They did a great job of that in Week 0 in a 12-23 loss to Nevada.  The problem was the offense turned it over five times in a game they should have won.  They held Nevada to just 257 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  They managed just 303 yards and 5.1 per play against Nevada.

New Mexico State proceeded to get shut out 38-0 by Minnesota in their second game.  The Aggies only managed 81 total yards against the Golden Gophers.  Last week they played a bad UTEP team and lost 13-20 as the offense was held in check once again, but the defense showed what it was capable of in limiting the Miners to 307 total yards.

The Badgers led the nation last year in holding their opponents to 150 yards per game below their season average and finished allowing 16.2 points per game and 239 yards per game.  They have now held their opponents to 17.4 points per game and 301 yards per game or fewer in six of the past seven seasons.  They are elite defensively once again in 2022.

After shutting out Illinois State 38-0 in the opener, the Badgers held the Washington State Cougars to just 17 points and 253 total yards last week.  But once again this season, the offense looks like a problem.  They were held to 14 points and committed three turnovers to get upset by the Cougars.  Wisconsin has only averaged 25.4 points per game and 25.1 points per game the past two seasons, respectively.  QB Graham Mertz is a massive disappointment.

For this game to go over the total, Wisconsin is going to have to do it all on their own.  They are 37-point favorites.  I expect them to shut out New Mexico State, and to not top 40 points themselves.  This is going to be very similar to Minnesota's 38-0 win over New Mexico State two weeks ago and stay UNDER the 46-point total.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Aggies last six non-conference games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Badgers last four games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Badgers last four non-conference games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Badgers last seven games following a loss.  Paul Christ is 11-3 UNDER off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Wisconsin.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Wisconsin) - an excellent defensive team from last season that allowed 285 or fewer yards per game, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 29-6 (82.9%) since 1992.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Nebraska FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +11

I love the spot for the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  Players and coaches alike finally can stop answering questions about Scott Frost and their poor play under him.  He has been fired, and the Huskers will have a breath of fresh air.  Look for them to get a one game boost at least and to finally play up to their potential and give Oklahoma a run for its money.

Of course, Nebraska should have beaten Oklahoma last year, which was yet another close loss for them.  They lost 23-16 as 22.5-point road underdogs.  They were only outgained by 24 yards by the Sooners.  It's tough to beat Nebraska by margin.  They went 3-9 last year, but all nine losses came by 9 points or less.  In fact, Nebraska hasn't lost any of its last 19 games by more than 9 points, making for a 19-0 system backing the Huskers pertaining to this 11-point spread.

Oklahoma is learning new systems under Brent Venables in their first year with the team.  Lincoln Riley took a lot of talent with him from Oklahoma.  The Sooners only brought back 10 starters this season.  They were fortunate to get a couple cupcakes to open the season in UTEP and Kent State, which they beat 45-13 and 33-3, respectively.  

This is a big step up in class for them and their first road game in a hostile atmosphere as Nebraska fans will be excited with a new head coach and the Sooners coming to town.  Nebraska has already been tested having to play Northwestern and an improved Georgia Southern team.  I think that loss to Southern last week has the Huskers undervalued this week.  Keep in mind this line was only Oklahoma -5 in the offseason, so we are getting at least 6 points of value.

Nebraska is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Huskers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games after a game where both teams scored 31 points or more.  The Sooners are 24-47 ATS in their last 71 games after allowing 17 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a SU win by more than 20 points.

Plays on any team (Nebraska) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with four or more losses in their last five games are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma/Nebraska UNDER 66.5

These teams are familiar with one another after playing last year with Oklahoma winning 23-16 for just 39 combined points.  They are different teams this year, but the familiarity will favor the defense.  So will the forecast, which is calling for possible storms in the morning and 20 MPH winds.  This game will likely be played mostly on the ground as a result, which will keep the clock moving.

Oklahoma has changed philosophy this season under first-year head coach Will Venables.  The former Clemson defensive coordinator is already putting his imprint on this Oklahoma defense.  They have held UTEP and Kent State to just 8.0 points per game and 3.9 yards per play through two games.

At the same time, Lincoln Riley and his high-octane offense are gone.  He took many of his best players with him on offense to USC.  The Sooners have been a little more conservative on offense this season, averaging only 461.0 yards per game against two poor defenses in UTEP and Kent State.  They are going to be an UNDER team this season because oddsmakers keep setting their totals too high due to their past reputation.

Nebraska has faced three straight poor defenses in Northwestern, North Dakota and Georgia Southern.  They will finally meet some resistance on offense from this Oklahoma defense, which held them to 16 points and 384 total yards last year and is even better this year.  I think Nebraska's defense will play its best game as well now with Scott Frost gone.  They are a lot more talented on this side of the ball than they have shown this season.  They only gave up 22.7 points per game last season.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 63 or higher (Nebraska) - with a bad defense that allos 450 or more yards per game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in two consecutive games are 26-5 (83.9%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Huskers last 12 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Florida State/Louisville ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 56.5

Mike Norvell and Florida State have struggled with dual-threat quarterbacks in his three seasons here.  They have really struggled defending Louisville's Malik Cunningham.  Louisville won 48-16 two years ago and 31-23 last year.

Cunningham went 16-of-24 for 278 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 40 yards on seven carries against Florida State in 2020.  Last year, Cunningham went 25-of-39 for 264 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 56 yards on 14 attempts and two scores.  It will be more of the same here as this Louisville offense will do whatever they want on this FSU defense.

Conversely, Florida State is vastly improved on offense this season as they are familiar with Norvell's system now in Year 3.  The Seminoles brought back eight starters on offense, includinG QB Jordan Travis is is coming into his own in his junior season.  He has five of his top six receivers back from last year and four starters back along the offensive line.  

Travis did not face Louisville last year, so he will have the element of surprise.  It was McKenzie Milton, who was replaced by Travis due to his ineffectiveness.  This Louisville defense gave up 31 points and 449 total yards to a suspect Syracuse offense in the opener.  Travis and company can do the same.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings with combined scores of 59 or more points in six of the eight meetings.  The OVER is 11-1 in Cardinals last 12 games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Kansas City -3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are loaded this season.  They beat Arizona 44-21 in Week 1 while outgaining them 488 to 282, or by 206 total yards.  And it was an even bigger blowout than those final stats would suggest.

The Cardinals were down 37-7 and scored two touchdowns in garbage time in the 4th quarter.  Their final three drives added 147 total yards to their final tally, so they only had 59 total yards when it was 37-7.  This might be the best defense the Chiefs have had under Andy Reid.

The Chargers were +3 in turnovers against the Raiders in Week 1 and still nearly didn't cover.  They won 24-19 only after stopping a 2-point conversion by the Raiders that allowed them to cover as 3.5-point favorites.  I think this Chargers team is talented, but this line is suggesting these teams are nearly even when you factor in home-field advantage, and that's just not the case.

Especially now with the Chargers likely to be without their top receiver in Keenan Allen, who suffered a hamstring injury against the Raiders and exited the game.  It's almost certain he won't be recovered in time for this game even though he's listed as questionable.  They will also be without TE Darnell Parham due to a hamstring injury and could be without CB J.C. Jackson, who also missed Week 1 with an ankle injury.

Los Angeles was outgained by the Raiders 5.7 to 5.5 yards per play.  Kansas City outgained Arizona 7.4 to 4.5 yards per play.  The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Chiefs Thursday.

20* Broncos/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on Seattle +7

This line is inflated.  Denver is a popular team in the offseason after trading for Russell Wilson.  Conversely, Seattle is an unpopular team after losing Wilson.  That has created some artificial line value on the Seahawks.  This line would indicate that Denver is 10 points better than Seattle on a neutral field when you factor in home-field advantage for the Seahawks.  That's just not the case.

We've seen former quarterbacks struggle going back to play teams they have played for their entire career.  Tom Brady barely beat the Patriots in his return to New England and talked about how awkward it was.  Wilson loves Seattle, and it will be awkward for him going into the visitor's locker room and all the distractions that come with playing his former team.

I'm not a big Geno Smith guy, but he does have plenty of starting experience and he doesn't beat himself.  He will keep the Seahawks in this game, and not to mention he probably has the best weapons he's ever had on any team.  The Seahawks still have one of the best WR duos in the NFL in Metcalf and Lockett.

If there's anyone that knows Wilson's tendencies and the best way to defend him, it would be Pete Carroll and this coaching staff.  I think that will be an advantage for this Seattle defense.  Don't fall for his pump fakes, and keep him contained.

The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Seahawks are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as underdogs.  Carroll is 18-8 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Seattle.  Bet the Seahawks Monday.

15* Packers/Vikings NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +2

The Minnesota Vikings will have one of the top offenses in the NFL this season.  Kirk Cousins gets a bad rap, but he is one of only six quarterbacks to throw at least 30 touchdown passes each of the last two seasons.  He is loaded with weapons in Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn and Dalvin Cook.  

Everyone is raving about the new offense under former Rams coordinator Kevin O'Connell, with Jefferson saying he can now see how Cooper Kupp was always wide open even when opposing teams knew he was going to get the ball.  And the defense cannot be much worse than it was a year ago.

The Vikings gave DE Za'Darius Smith a $42 million contract in the offseason in hopes that he can return to the form that saw him recording 26 total sacks in 2019 and 2020.  He played just one game last year with a back injury.  He'll be opposite All-Pro Danielle Hunter to form one of the top edge-rushing duos in the NFL.  Dalvin Tomlinson does a little bit of everything on the inside, and newcomer Harrison Phillips is a run stuffer.

Eric Kendricks is one of the best linebackers in the NFL.  The Vikings had big concerns in the secondary in the offseason, so they spend their top two picks addressing this area.  They used one on Lewis Cline to replace the departed Xavier Woods at safety.  He'll start next to Harrison Smith, one of the top safeties in the NFL.  They got Andrew Booth in the second round even though many projected him to be a first-round pick at corner.  He'll likely start opposite Patrick Peterson.

I don't think the Packers will be anywhere near 100% to open the season.  Aaron Rodgers will be without DeVante Adams for the first time since 2014.  All he did was top 74 receptions and 885 yards in each of the last six seasons, including 10 or more touchdowns in five of them.  He had 2,927 yards and 29 touchdowns the last two years alone.  Also gone is No. 2 receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling.  It's going to take a few games for Rodgers to form chemistry with Sammy Watkins and Romeo Daubs, along with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.  Lazard is questionable to play in Week 1.

The Packers are ripe for the picking in Week 1, and the Vikings have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL when they are good.  The fans will be rowdy for this showdown against the hated division rival Packers.  Remember, the Packers lost 38-3 at New Orleans in Week 1 last year.  Division underdogs are 28-9-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2014.  The Vikings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as home underdogs.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* Steelers/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +7

The Cincinnati Bengals come in overvalued after making the Super Bowl last year.  I always like fading both Super Bowl winners and especially Super Bowl losers because there seems to be a hangover effect.  Indeed, Super bowl losers are 5-21 ATS in Week 1 the following season over the past 26 years.

I'm a big Joe Burrow guy as he has won me a ton of money dating back to his time at LSU.  But it's going to take him some time to recover from an appendectomy this summer, which caused him to lose 20 pounds due to an infection.  He didn't play at all in the preseason and has only recently been cleared to play.

There cannot be that big of a drop off from Big Ben to Mitch Trubisky.  Big Ben was a dink and dunk QB the last couple years.  Trubisky is at least mobile and can stretch the field.  He thrived in the preseason and the Steelers feel good about his prospects.

Trubisky has a lot more weapons at his disposal in Pittsburgh than he did in Chicago.  They are Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Treiermuth and rookie George Pickens.  Najee Harris is a solid back and they can rely on him plenty, especially catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Steelers had issues against the run last year and tried to shore that up this offseason.  But they were very good against the pass and will be again, making this a good matchup for them.  T.J. Watt is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL, logging 22.5 sacks last season.

I just think this line is inflated because the Bengals went to the Super Bowl last year, while the Steelers are breaking in a new QB.  Division underdogs are 28-9-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2014.  The Steelers are 25-7 SU & 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 meetings with the Bengals.  Pittsburgh is 35-15-2 ATS in its last 52 games as an underdog.  Take the Steelers Sunday. (Buy 0.5 to +7 if necessary)

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers -1.5

The Carolina Panthers were decimated by injuries last year.  Most notably, they were 3-2 in games in which Christian McCaffrey played, and 2-10 without him.  They also got terrible quarterback play from Sam Darnold and Cam Newton.  Baker Mayfield is a huge upgrade at quarterback.

The Panthers upgraded the offensive line big-time.  They added two interior linemen in Austin Corbett and Bradley Bozeman, who are going to be major upgraded.  The biggest upgrade could be left tackle Ikem Dkwonu, who they took with the 6th pick in the first round.  RT Taylor Moton is one of the better players at his position.

Brian Burns, Yetur Gross-Matos, Derrick Brown and Matt Ioannidis should form a solid pass rush that saw the Panthers finish in the Top 10 in pressure rate in 2021 despite trailing in most games.  The secondary will be a strength with 2021 first-round pick Jaycee Horn at CB and 2020 second-round pick Jeremy Chinn at safety.  Chinn will play next to Xavier Woods, who has been solid for the Cowboys and Vikings in recent seasons.  Donte Jackson was awarded a $35 million contract for his play and is one of the more underrated corners in the league.

Speaking of poor QB play, the Cleveland Browns are going to have that this season.  They mortgaged the farm to trade for Deshaun Watson, only to see him get suspended for the first 11 games of the season.  That means Jacoby Brissett will start for them.  Brissett has had his opportunity in the NFL, and he has never proven to be a reliable starter in this league.  He doesn't have great weapons outside of Amari Cooper, either.

You know Baker Mayfield is going to be 100% dialed in for this game to get revenge on the Browns for trading him.  He was even quoted as saying "I'm going to fuck them up" when asked about playing his former team.  I think Matt Rhule is fit to be an NFL coach because players love him, and if injuries break his way finally, he could be in the running for Coach of the Year honors.

The Browns are 0-15-1 SU & 4-12 ATS in Week 1 over the past 16 seasons.  The Panthers basically just have to win this game to cover.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/49ers UNDER 42

The San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears have two of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL.  They also have two of the best defenses in the league.  That leads me to really like this UNDER 42 in the season opener as I think points will be at a premium.

Kyle Shanahan is going to be very conservative with Trey Lance early in the season.  Look for him to run the football more than normal and to rely on ball control to win games until Lance gets comfortable a few weeks down the road.  The 49ers easily have a Top 3 defense and probably the best defense in the NFL this season.  They nearly rode that defense to the Super Bowl last year.

Justin Fields struggled last year as a starter.  He should make strides forward, unfortunately there isn't a lot of talent around him, especially with the loss of top receiver Allen Robinson.  The Bears also figure to rely on the running game a lot early in the season, and Fields will be a big part of that with his dual-threat ability.  Despite miserable offense after miserable offense, the Bears have been pretty steady in fielding a top-notch defense throughout the years.

Chicago is 60-34 in its last 94 games as a home underdog of 7 points or less.  The UNDER is 7-1 in 49ers last eight games overall.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Bears last 27 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans +8

The Houston Texans come into the season undervalued after going just 4-13 last season.  But Lovie Smith has this team on the rise and they played very well on the preseason.  Not to mention, QB Davis Mills finished strong last year and is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the NFL.

Mills completed 66.8% of his passes as a rookie last year.  Rookie RB Dameon Pierce is getting rave reviews in camp and could win Rookie of the Year honors.  Houston has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  The left side is solid with Laremy Tunsil and first-round rookie Kenyon Green.

Houston has very good offensive and defensive lines, which is why they are underrated coming into the season with the lack of big names.  Jonathan Greenard had eight sakcs in 12 games last year.  Jerry Hughes comes over from the Buffalo Bills after a great nine-year run with the team.  Maliek Collins is well-rounded on the interior.

There is a lot of hype surrounding the Indianapolis Colts this year.  They somehow blew their chance at making the playoffs by losing to the Jaguars in Week 18.  Carson Wentz is gone, and now in comes the veteran Matt Ryan.  Remember, Ryan had all the weapons he could ask for in Atlanta and wasn't able to do anything with them aside from the one Super Bowl Run that was aided by Kyle Shanahan calling the plays.  He'll be better under Frank Reich, but Ryan is far past his prime.

The losses were big in the offseason with WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Jack Doyle CB Rock Ya-Sin and OT Eric Fisher all gone.  The Colts have spent three early draft choices on defensive linemen in recent offseasons, yet they finished dead last in pressure rate last season.  They traded Ya-Sin to the Raiders for Yannick Ngakoue.  He will get a pass rush, but he gets trampled against the run.

The Colts have been slow starters going 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 Week 1 games.  Divisional underdogs are 28-9-2  ATS in Week 1 since 2014.  Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games vs. AFC South foes.  Asking the Colts to go on the road and win by more than a touchdown to cover in Week 1 is asking too much.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

20* Mississippi State/Arizona FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona +11

Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season.  They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah.  Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of.

Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job.  Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022.  They add in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback and I think this is going to be the single most improved team in the country.

I backed Arizona last week as 6.5-point underdogs at San Diego State.  That was a no sweat winner as Arizona rolled to a 38-20 victory, gaining 461 total yards and holding the Aztecs to 232 yards, outgaining them by 229 yards.  De Laura lived up to the hype, throwing for 299 yards and four touchdowns with one pick in the win.

Fans are excited about this team finally, and it's going to be a raucous atmosphere in Tucson Saturday night with an 11:00 PM EST kick.  That's a very late start for a Mississippi State team that is in the Eastern time zone and won't be used to it.  I like this Mississippi State team, but they should not be laying double-digits on the road to the Wildcats in Week 2.  The Bulldogs beat a Memphis team last week that is way down this year and is getting too much respect for that blowout home victory.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on New Mexico State/UTEP UNDER 47

Jerry Kill is a first-year head coach at New Mexico State.  He has always been a conservative head coach focusing on defense and ball control, and that is clearly is MO here at New Mexico State thus far.  Kill has nine defensive starters back for the Aggies.  The defense is the strength of the team as only four starters are back on offense.  

Kill knows his best chance to win is to shorten games and control the ball on offense.  They did a great job of that in Week 0 in a 12-23 loss to Nevada.  The problem was the offense turned it over five times in a game they should have won.  They held Nevada to just 257 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  They managed just 303 yards and 5.1 per play against Nevada.

New Mexico State proceeded to get shut out 38-0 by Minnesota in Week 2.  The Aggies only managed 81 total yards against the Golden Gophers.  It will be tough sledding again this week against a UTEP defense that only allowed 25.2 points per game last season and brought back eight starters from that defense.

UTEP's defensive numbers are inflated this season because they have played two great offenses in North Texas and Oklahoma.  Don't be surprised to see them hold this awful Aggies offense to 14 points or fewer this week as this is a big step down in class.  I also expect UTEP to score more than the 13.0 points per game they are averaging through two games, but not enough to get this final score over the 47-point total.  They are a run-based team that lost their star receiver last year in Jacob Cowing, who had 1,354 yards and seven touchdowns.

UTEP beat New Mexico State 30-3 last year for just 33 combined points, so there is familiarity with these teams which also favors the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -11

The Oklahoma State Cowboys went 12-2 last year and should have won the Big 12 title.  But they got stopped on the goal line in four tries by Baylor in the title game.  They rebounded to beat Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, and now they come back highly motivated to win the Big 12 in 2022.

Mike Gundy made a point of speeding up the offense to get this unit back to where it has been in years past.  That was on display in the opener as the Cowboys ran a play every 19 seconds, running 73 plays in 23:52 for 531 yards and 7.3 yards per play in their 58-44 win over Central Michigan in the opener.

That game was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate, and I think that misleading result is providing us with some line value this week, because Oklahoma State failed to cover the 20.5-point spread.  The Cowboys led 51-15 in the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs.  Central Michigan scored most of their points against the Cowboys' backups.

Conversely, I think Arizona State is getting too much respect this week after covering as 25.5-point favorites in a 40-3 win over Northern Arizona last week.  But make no mistake about it, the Sun Devils look like one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country this season, and that will show as the season goes on.

Herm Edwards is squarely on the hot seat entering his 5th season in Tempe.  He has just seven starters back as this is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country.  He lost a ton of players to the transfer portal, including QB Jayden Daniels.  Each of the top four receivers and each of the top three rushers are gone.  Seven of the top nine tacklers are gone on defense.

The atmosphere will be great for this Saturday night game in Stillwater.  The Cowboys are going to keep that fast-paced offense going and run Arizona State off the field.  The conservative Sun Devils won't be able to play catch up like Central Michigan did, and I don't expect the Cowboys to call off the dogs so early after what happened last week.  Oklahoma State is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Connecticut +23.5

The UConn Huskies are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2022.  I love the Jim Mora hire.  He joined the staff for the final four games last year so he could recruit for this season.  He retained his DC in Lou Spanos, who held the same position under Mora at UCLA and was at UConn the last three years.

The Huskies welcome back 15 starters and 54 lettermen.  They return each of their top six tacklers on defense.  The Huskies had five games decided by 14 points or less last year and should be more competitive this season.  That has proven to be the case thus far as they are 2-0 ATS and undervalued.

Connecticut jumped out to a 14-0 lead on Utah State in the opener and eventually lost 31-20, covering easily as 23.5-point underdogs.  I had them at +28 in that game as a lot of money came in on them.  UConn went on to cover as 20.5-point favorites in a 28-3 win over Central Connecticut State last week.  Now this will be their third game because they were one of the few teams to play in Week 0, which is an advantage for them.

Syracuse is getting too much respect for its 31-7 upset win over Louisville as 5-point underdogs last week.  Louisville gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 3-0.  This is a Syracuse team that went 5-7 last year with its only blowout win by this kind of margin coming against FCS Albany.  While they may be improved, they should not be 23.5-point favorites here.  This is now a sandwich game and a bad spot for them coming off a conference win against Louisville, and with Purdue on deck next week.

Syracuse is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a blowout upset win by 21 points or more as an underdog, and 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games following an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog.  Dino Babers is 0-8 ATS after allowing 9 points or fewer last game as the coach of Syracuse.  Bet Connecticut Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas +13.5

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

I am high on West Virginia compared to the market, and I cashed them as 7.5-point underdogs in their opener in a 7-point loss to Pittsburgh.  But they were in control of that game and let it slip away after a wide open receiver dropped an easy catch, and it was intercepted returned for a TD in the final minutes.  

That was a deflating loss in the Backyard Brawl rivalry, and I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team like WVU twice.  Don't be surprised if Kansas pulls this upset after only losing by 6 to WVU last year.  This is a hangover spot for the Mountaineers and the Jayhawks are live underdogs this week, and I expect them to be live underdogs a lot this season.  Take Kansas Saturday.

15* Virginia/Illinois Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Illinois -3.5

Illinois improved last season down the stretch in going 4-3 in their final seven games including upsets over Penn State and Minnesota as 24 and 14-point underdogs, respectively.  It's year 2 under Bret Bielema and he has 13 starters back plus Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito at quarterback.

I've been impressed with Illinois in their first two games this season.  They crushed Wyoming 38-6 in the opener while outgaining them by 265 yards.  That's a Wyoming team that came back last week and upset Tulsa.  They should have beaten Indiana, outgaining them by 86 yards but blowing it late in the 4th quarter.  I think that loss has them a little undervalued coming into this week.  Illinois should be at least a 7-point favorite over Virginia.

Virginia is in rebuilding mode after losing head coach Bronco Mendenhall in the offseason.  They also bring back just 10 starters for first-year head coach Tony Elliott.  They do have stud QB Brennan Armstrong back, but he has a lot on his shoulders.  Virginia is breaking in five new starters along the offensive line, and I love fading teams that are bad in the trenches.

While these teams are pretty evenly matched on offense, Illinois is going to have a huge advantage on defense.  Virginia gave up 31.8 points and 466 yards per game last year. They gave up 226 rushing yards per game and 5.8 per carry.  Illinois is going to be able to run the ball at will on this Virginia defense.

The Cavaliers gave up 170 rushing yards and nearly 5.0 yards per carry in their 34-17 win over Richmond last week.  Illinois is only allowing 14.5 points, 287 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play through two games.  Illinois will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football and win this Big 10 vs. ACC matchup with plenty of room to spare.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* UNLV/Cal Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNLV +13

The UNLV Rebels are one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into the season.  Marcus Arroyo is in Year 3 here, and that's when coaches usually make their biggest leaps.  UNLV pulled upsets over Hawaii and New Mexico in its final two games last year.  They also lost in double-OT to Eastern Washington, by 7 to UTSA as 21-point dogs, by 4 to Utah State as 7-point dogs and by 8 to San Diego State as 10-point dogs.  Those last three teams were three of the best Group of 5 teams in the country.

Now Arroyo welcomes 12 starters back including QB Doug Brumfield, who showed out in the opener.  UNLV beat Idaho State 52-21 as 23-point underdogs.  They gained 554 yards of offense and outgained Idaho State by 313 yards.  Brumfield threw for 356 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the win.

California is not a team you can trust to lay double-digit points.  Like clockwork, they have a terrible offense and a great defense every season under Justin Wilcox.  They have averaged 23.8 points per game or fewer in four consecutive seasons, while allowing 26.5 points per fewer each of the last four years.  Wilcox is on the hot seat entering Year 6, and he has one of the most inexperienced teams in the country with only eight starters back.

Cal did manage to cover in a 34-13 win over UC-Davis as 14-point favorites in the opener.  But that game against a FCS opponent was much closer than the final score would indicate.  California only outgained UC-Davis by 28 yards.  That misleading result now has California laying too many points against UNLV this week.

UNLV is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.  California is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games following an ATS win.  The Golden Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rebels are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following a win by 28 points or more.  Take UNLV Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Pitt ABC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -5.5

Pittsburgh comes into the season with massive expectations after winning the ACC last season and going 11-3 overall.  Keep in mind the Panthers never won more than eight games in the previous six seasons under Pat Narduzzi, and they hadn't won more than eight games in over 10 years.  While the Panthers do have 15 starters back, they lose all of their best players.

QB Kenny Pickett (4,319 yards, 42 TD, 7 INT) was drafted in the first round by the Steelers.  Top receiver Jordan Addison (100 receptions, 1,593 yards, 17 TD) transferred to USC to play under Lincoln Riley.  The loss of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple is also massive as he was the architect of Pitt's record-setting offense.  They will have a completely new scheme under OC Frank Cignetti, who spent the past two years at Boston College.

I just think Pitt comes in overrated based on last year's results.  I successfully faded them in Week 1 as 7.5-point favorites against West Virginia.  While they won that game 38-31, they had no business winning it as West Virginia was in control until throwing a pick 6 off a wide open receivers hands in the final minutes.  West Virginia outgained them by 18 yards and Pitt's offense was held to just 384 total yards.  Pitt also suffered some key injuries in that game.  It was a big rivalry game in the Backyard Brawl, and they won't be nearly as motivated as they were to win that game on a standalone Thursday Night game.

Tennessee will be the more motivated team looking for revenge from a 41-34 home loss to Pitt last year.  The Vols gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 3-0.  While Pitt is on the decline, Tennessee is on the rise entering Year 2 under Josh Heupel.  The Volunteers welcome back 15 starters this season and are thriving in Heupel's system.

The Vols scored 45 or more points in four of their final five games last season.  QB Hendon Hooker is back along with eight starters on offense.  Hooker is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  He completed 68% of his passes for 2,945 yards and a ridiculous 31-to-3 TD/INT ratio last season, while also rushing for 616 yards and five scores as a dual-threat.

The Vols are off and running again this season beating Ball State 59-10 as 37-point favorties in the opener.  Hooker went 18-of-25 for 221 yards and two touchdowns in the opener, while also rushing for two scores.  He got pulled early in the 2nd half with the game in hand.

Tennessee is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  The Volunteers are favored for good reason on the road here as they are clearly the better team and that will show on the field.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Army +3

The Army Black Knights come back motivated after losing to a very good Coastal Carolina team 38-28 in Week 1.  Coastal Carolina was the team playing keep away as they ran 23 more plays than Army did.  Army's numbers were good as they averaged 7.3 yards per play on offense while giving up 6.2 yards per play on defensive, outgaining the Chanticleers by 1.1 yards per play.

Keep in mind Coastal Carolina had all offseason to prepare for the triple-option, which was a huge advantage.  Now UTSA only has one week to get ready for it and they won't be ready at all.  UTSA is also in a terrible spot.  They are coming off a triple-OT loss to Houston last week in which they blew a 21-7 lead in the 4th quarter.  I think there will be a hangover effect.  And this is a sandwich spot with an even bigger game against Texas on deck.

Army returned 14 starters this season, which is a ton for a service academy.  Army has now won at least 9 games in four of the past five seasons.  They are loaded again, and head coach Jeff Monken is doing a tremendous job with this program.

UTSA is getting a lot of respect after going 12-2 last season.  Amazingly, the Roadrunners went 6-0 in one-score games last year, so they were very fortunate in close games.  They returned 21 starters last season and now have just 13 starters back this season.  The defense is going to be a problem with just five starters back.

I think Army is going to be able to move it up and down the field on the Roadrunners and control the game with their offense.  They will wear down this UTSA defense as the game goes on, especially after having to play a triple-overtime game last week.  I expect Army to win outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.   Bet Army Saturday.

20* Louisville/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UCF -5.5

The UCF Knights are going to be one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country this season.  Gus Malzahn had a productive first season in Orlando last year in guiding the Knights to a 9-4 season despite suspect quarterback play.  Now Malzahn welcomes back 17 starters and some stud transfers, including QB John Rhys Plumlee from Ole Miss.

Plumlee showed out in the opener by throwing for 308 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for 86 yards and another score to flaunt his dual-threat ability.  They beat South Carolina State 56-10 and covered the 43.5-point spread.  Now with a real quarterback and a veteran, loaded roster, the Knights are going to be tough to tame in 2022.

The Louisville Cardinals have been a massive disappointment under head coach Scott Satterfield.  After going 8-5 in his first season, the Cardinals have gone 4-7 and 6-7 the past two seasons, respectively.  Many thought they would be better this season, but that is clearly not the case.

Louisville was steamed up to a 5.5-point favorite at Syracuse in the opener.  They lost 31-7 and were outgained by 115 yards.  They gave up 449 yards to what was a terrible Syracuse offensive last season.  And their supposedly high-powered offense was only held to 334 total yards.  Malik Cunningham threw for only 152 yards and two interceptions in the defeat.

UCF wants revenge from a 42-35 loss at Louisville last season.  UCF was a 7-point favorite in that game, now they are only a 5.5-point favorite at home in the rematch.  And clearly the Knights are improved this season while the Cardinals are no better than they were last year, and maybe worse.

UCF has one of the best home-field advantages in the country in the Bounce House.  It's going to be even more of an advantage for this stand-alone Friday night game on National TV.  Fans are hyped about this team, and it will be a very tough atmosphere for Cunningham and Louisville to deal with.

Louisville is 11-28-1 ATS in its last 40 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  The Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 275 or fewer total yards in their previous game.  They held South Carolina State to 91 total yards and outgained them by 509 yards.  Bet UCF Friday.

20* Bills/Rams 2022 NFL Season Opener on Buffalo -2.5

The Buffalo Bills are the best team in the NFL to open the season in my opinion.  They should have won the Super Bowl last year, and they come back highly motivated to do so this year.  They get to open the season with the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, which has only added fuel to their fire all offseason getting prepared for this game.

Buffalo is perhaps the only team in the NFL that I'm certain has a Top 5 offense and a Top 5 defense.  Josh Allen threw for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns with only 10 interceptions last year, while completing 69.2% of his passes and also taking fewer sacks.  The offensive line got two upgrades this offseason in Rodger Safford and David Quessenberry, both formerly of the Titans.  They have a bonafide star receiver in Stefon Diggs, and Gabriel Davis showed he could be the No. 2 with 201 yards and four touchdowns against the Chiefs.  They added Jamison Crowder, which is an upgrade over the departed Cole Beasley in the slot.

The Bills had the top-ranked defense in the NFL last season and also were No. 1 in pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks.  Well, they got even better in that department in the offseason by signing Von Miller to a $120 million contract in the spring.  The one weakness on Buffalo last season was stopping the run, and they shored that up by adding DaQuan Jones, who will start next to Ed Oliver at defensive tackle.

I always like fading teams that won the Super Bowl the previous year because it's so hard to repeat.  There tends to be a hangover effect, too.  Same can be said for Super Bowl losers.  And the losses are huge for the Rams as they part ways with the aforementioned Von Miller, WR Odell Beckham Jr, WR Robert Woods, G Austin Corbett and OT Andrew Whitworth.  The loss to Whitworth cannot be overstated as he was the leader on this offense.

Matthew Stafford suffered an elbow injury that kept him out of training camp.  Many has said he won't be the same quarterback as last year, while some say he looks perfectly fine leading up to the opener.  Either way, there will be a rust factor, and it's definitely a concern for the Rams at the very least.

I think the Bills are the hungrier, more ready team for Week 1 given all that has taken place in the offseason.  Buffalo is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games vs. NFC West opponents.  The Bills are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Week 1 games.  Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

15* Clemson/Georgia Tech ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -22

The Clemson Tigers are undervalued to open the season.  They had not lost more than two games in any season since 2014.  But they went 10-3 last year and didn't win the ACC.  It was a rare down season for Dabo Swinney and company, and his players will come back highly motivated in the offseason to right the ship.

Swinney returns a whopping 15 starters this season, which is rare for a Clemson team.  Usually they lost a ton of players to the NFL Draft, but that wasn't the case this offseason.  They defense remains loaded after allowing 14.8 points and 305 yards per game last season.

The key is the offense, which will be one of the most improved units in the country after averaging just 26.3 points and 359 yards per game last season.  To compare, they averaged 43.5 points per game or more in three consecutive seasons prior to 2021.  There are nine starters back on offense and the chemistry will be great from the jump.

Georgia Tech will be the worst team in the ACC this season.  Geoff Collins just hasn't been able to fill the massive shoes of Paul Johnson.  Collins enters his fourth seasons here and the Yellow Jackets have won exactly three games in each of his first three seasons.  It's amazing he even still has a job.

The Yellow Jackets only return eight starters this season after having 17 back last year.  This is a rebuilding year, especially after losing the final two games of last season by a combined score of 110-0.  It won't get any better to start the 2022 campaign as they face a hungry, juggernaut of a team in Clemson.

Sure, Georgia Tech played Clemson tough in a 14-8 loss as 27-point dogs last season.  But that was an aberration and Clemson is much stronger this year.  Keep in mind Clemson won by 66, 38 and 28 points in the three meetings prior, respectively.  The one-sided dominance of this series returns in the 2022 opener.

This game will be played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.  Clemson is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 neutral site games.  The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Clemson Monday.

15* FSU/LSU ABC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50

I believe this will be a shootout tonight in the Superdome in New Orleans.  At the very least, these teams should combine to top this 50-point total.  I like the outlook of both of these offenses, and I have some questions about both the defenses.

Brian Kelly comes over to LSU and brings offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock with him from.  Denbrock spent the past five seasons as Cincinnati's offensive coordinator and was a great at getting the most out of Desmond Ridder's skill set.  Denbrock was an assistant under Kelly at Notre Dame from 2010 to 2016.

Jayden Daniels comes over from Arizona State to take over the quarterback position.  He was a dynamic dual-threat like Ridder at ASU, throwing for 6,025 yards and rushing for 1,288 more in his three seasons there.  He has arguably the most talented group of receivers in the country to get the ball to.  This is going to be an explosive LSU offense starting Week 1.

I do have questions surrounding LSU's defense that returns only five starters.  The defensive line will be fine, but there's a lot of inexperience in the back seven and they could be susceptible to some broken plays in the opener.  LSU allowed 34.9 points per game in 2020 and 26.6 points per game in 2021, so they haven't been nearly as dominant on this side of the ball in recent years.

The Florida State Seminoles enter Year 3 under Mike Norvell.  They should be hitting on all cylinders from the jump offensively.  Eight starters are back on offense including QB Jordan Travis, who made eight starters last year throwing for 1,539 yards and 15 touchdowns with six interceptions, while also rushing for 530 yards and seven scores.  He has five of his top six receivers back and add in talented Oregon transfer Mycah Pittman.  Four starters are back along the offensive line.

Florida State has also been vulnerable defensively in recent years.  They have allowed at least 26.5 points per game in four consecutive seasons.  While they may be improved on that side of the ball this season with eight starters back, I can't see them holding LSU's talent in check in the opener.

The OVER is 7-2 in Seminoles last nine neutral site games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Tigers last six neutral site games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Tigers last 10 September games.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah State +42

I have consistently faded Alabama in these non-conference games as massive favorites over the last handful of years.  It's rinse and repeat with Nick Saban.  Put it on the overmatched non-conference opponent in the first half, then call off the dogs in the second half, especially in the 4th quarter.  That makes it very hard for them to cover these massive spreads even against these overmatched teams.

Utah State is a much better team than many of the non-conference foes the Crimson Tide have faced int he past.  The Aggies won the Mountain West last season with an 11-3 record out of nowhere in Blake Anderson's first season.  I realize they got fortunate to win a ton of close games, but the feat was still pretty impressive, especially beating San Diego State 46-13 in the MWC Championship Game and Oregon State 24-13 outright as 7-point dogs in the bowl.

I did fade Utah State with success in the opener by backing UConn.  But that was more because UConn was underrated coming into the season.  Utah State won that game 31-20 and still outgained UConn 542 to 364.  But since they failed to cover the 23.5-point spread, the Aggies are getting a little extra value this week against Alabama.  It also helps that they have a game under their belt, and they were probably looking ahead to this game as well.  Alabama has Texas on deck so could definitely be looking ahead to that game in the second half.

The Aggies bring back star QB Logan Bonner.  He threw for 3,628 yards with a 36-to-12 TD/INT ratio last season and can keep them within this number for four quarters.  Bonner went 20-of-29 for 281 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions against UConn.  He has four starters and 102 career starts back on the offensive line and had a week to form some chemistry with all his new weapons.  Calvin Tyler, who rushed for 884 yards and seven scores last year, rushed for 161 yards against UConn.

The Aggies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 September games.  Utah State is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  Alabama is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 September games.  The Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Mountain West opponents.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Ohio State ABC No-Brainer on Notre Dame +17

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish went 11-2 last season and were a blown 28-7 lead to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl away from 12-1.  That loss will have them motivated all offseason, especially after just missing out on the four-team playoff.  Brian Kelly did a great job here but left for LSU.

The cupboard isn't bare for new head coach Marcus Freeman.  He was the defensive coordinator for the Fighting Irish last season.  He welcomes back 15 starters and came through with a Top 5 recruiting class in 2022.  To compare, Ohio State only had the 11th-best recruiting class this season.

The offense has seven starters back, and while there are some new skill position players, the strength of the unit returns as four starters are back on the offensive line.  They paved the way for 224 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry while allowing just 13 sacks over their final eight games last season.  The defense has eight starters and eight of the top nine tacklers back from a unit that gave up just 19.7 points per game last season and will be a strength.

Ohio State was also went 11-2 last season after a big comeback win over Utah in the Rose Bowl.  The Buckeyes will be good again with 14 starters back, but they are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in the early going.  Remember, they struggled to beat Minnesota by 14 and lost outright to Oregon in the first two weeks of the season last year.  They were also in a dog fight with Tulsa at home in the 4th quarter in their third game of the season.

Marcus Freeman and the rest of the staff have been informed of the point spread for this game, and they have stated they will use that as motivation letting their players know they are 17-point dogs.  I just like the motivation of this Notre Dame team after that tough Fiesta Bowl loss and with everyone already counting them out.  I think they come in with a chip on their shoulder and talent-wise, this game is much closer than this 17-point spread would indicate.  Roll with Notre Dame Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Southern Miss +3.5

Southern Miss is going to be one of the most improved teams in all of college football.  The Golden Eagles went 3-9 last year, had just 62 scholarship players, lost their Top 5 QB on offense due to injury and actually started 10 different players at quarterback.  They started 1-9 and kept fighting, winning their final two games despite playing a RB at QB.

That's a sign of the players continuing to play hard for Will Hill.  Now Hill enters his second season with the team, players are familiar with his systems, and they have created a ton of depth due to all the injuries last year.  The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and can only get better health at QB.  Each of the top 10 tacklers are back on defense as well from a unit that was solid last year in giving up 27.9 points and 359 yards per game.

I've been high on Liberty the past couple seasons because Hugh Freeze is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  Unfortunately, the Flames are in a bit of a rebuilding year this season after going 10-1 in 2022 and 8-5 last year.  After having 20 starters back in 2021, the Flames only have 11 starters back in 2022.

They lose QB Malik Willis to the NFL and he was the key to their success the past two seasons.  He led them in rushing last year by over 400 yards.  The offense has some talent but will take a step back without Willis.  The bigger concern may be returning only four starters on defense.  The Flames lose four of their top five tacklers as well.  Two teams headed in opposite directions here in 2022.  I'll side with the team on the rise.  Roll with Southern Miss Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Troy/Ole Miss UNDER 57.5

Two teams that are loaded defensively this season square off in Week 1.  I think Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss get the reputation of being an offensive juggernaut and not enough credit on defense.  That was the case last season.

Ole Miss gave up just 24.7 points per game last season.  In fact, each of their final eight games last season saw 57 or fewer combined points, which makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  The Rebels return seven starters on defense and will be ferocious on that side of the ball again.

Not to mention, Ole Miss is going to take a huge step back on offense this season.  They lose QB Matt Corral, each of their top three receivers and each of their top three rushers.  Corral is a huge loss as he threw for 3,349 yards and 20 TD while also rushing for 614 yards and 11 TD.  USC transfer Jaxson Dart could be good, but he has some big shoes to fill.

Troy was a dead nuts UNDER team last season.  They only combined for 60-plus points with their opponents once in 12 games last season.  They had a woeful offense that averaged 22.8 points per game, and while they will be better with nine starters back, don't expect huge improvement.  The defense is loaded with nine returning starters from a unit that gave up 26.1 points and 337 yards per game.  They will be able to hold Ole Miss in check with eight of their top nine tacklers back.

The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Trojans last 10 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Trojans last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Ole Miss' last eight games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Oregon/Georgia ABC ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +17.5

Georgia comes into the 2022 season overvalued after finally winning the National Championship for the first time in 41 years.  The Bulldogs only return 10 starters from that team and lose nine players to the NFL on defense alone.  Not to mention, they have been feeling fat and happy all offseason and I question their motivation heading into the opener.

Mario Cristobal is a great recruiter but not a great head coach.  I don't think the Ducks are downgrading at all with Dan Lanning coming over from Georgia, where he was the defensive coordinator the last three years and guided the nation's top D.  That also gives the Ducks an advantage in preparation as Lanning knows all of Georgia's players and schemes.

The cupboard is far from bare for Lanning as the Ducks return 15 starters this season.  They also add in Auburn transfer Bo Nix at quarterback.  He will be starting for a 4th consecutive season and is coming off his best year with 61% completions, 2,294 passing yards and an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio last season.  He is also a dual-threat that has rushed for 869 yards in his career.

Oregon is very strong in the trenches and that gives them a chance to hang with Georgia.  There are 86 career starts and four starters returning on the offensive line in what will be one of the nation's best units.  Four of the top six are back on the defensive line, plus they add in two Nebraska transfers and Sam Taimani from Washington.  They could be even better than last year on the D-Line despite losing All-American Thibodeaux.  This game will be much closer than the odds suggest.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* Cincinnati/Arkansas ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +7

The disrespect the Cincinnati Bearcats are getting to open the season is alarming.  I'm shocked they are catching a touchdown on the road to the Arkansas Razorbacks.  Cincinnati made the four-team playoff last year and deservedly so with a 13-0 regular season before falling to Alabama in the playoffs, but playing them pretty tough.

Now the Bearcats return 13 starters this season and Luke Fickell is doing a tremendous job here recruiting and coaching them up.  They have eight starters back on offense, and although there is a drop off from Desmond Ridder to Eastern Michigan's Ben Bryant, I don't think it will be as significant as most are expecting.  They add in a 1,000-yard receiver from Hawaii in Nick Mardner and return all five starters up front, making this Fickell's best offensive line yet.

The Bearcats have allowed 16.8 and 16.9 points per game the past two seasons, respectively.  There will be a small drop off here with only five returning starters.  They lost their top two defensive linemen, but add in Ohio State transfer Noah Potter.  Deshawn Pace (95 tackles, 9.5 TFL last year) is back at linebacker and welcomes his brother Ivan Pace (125 tackles, 13 TFL), who was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year at Miami Ohio last year.  The drop off defensively won't be much.

Arkansas is getting some love after a surprising 9-4 season last year that ended with a 24-10 win over Penn State in the Outback Bowl.  But keep in mind that was a veteran Arkansas team that returned 19 starters.  Now the Razorbacks have just 11 starters back, and although QB KJ Jefferson is one of them, there are holes everywhere else.

The defense returns just four starters and loses four of its top five tacklers from a veteran unit that improved by 12.0 points per game allowed from 2020 to 2021.  They won't be nearly as good on this side of the ball in 2022.  They lose three of their top four receivers, including their start in Treylon Burks (1,104 yards, 11 TD last year), who was taken in the first round of the NFL Draft.  This game will go down to the wire with the Bearcats likely pulling the upset.  Take Cincinnati Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Arizona +6.5

Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season.  They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah.  Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of.

Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job.  Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022.  They add in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback and I think this is going to be the single most improved team in the country.

I'm not high at all on San Diego State this season.  Brady Hoke goes from having 17 starters back last season to just 12 starters back in 2022.  They lose leading rusher Greg Bell (1,091 yards, 9 TD) and three of their top four receivers on offense.  Only five starters are back on offense.  The defense will be solid again with seven starters back, but they do lose Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Cameron Thomas, who was also a second-team All-American.  The special teams also loses do-everything P/K Matt Araiza, who set the NCAA record for punting average (51.19).

San Diego State went 6-0 in one-score games last year.  That is almost unheard of.  So they were very lucky to have a 12-2 record.  They only outgained teams by 21 yards per game on the season.  So the Aztecs are going to take a step back, while the Wildcats are going to take a step forward.  I think this line should be much closer to PK or Arizona favored.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Arizona) - a team that had a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse last season are 57-23 (71.2%) ATS since 1992.  Arizona was -17 in turnovers last year, so they are due for some positive regression in that department as well.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke -7

To be clear, I'm not high on Duke this season.  But I think this is a great 'buy low' spot on the Blue Devils coming off a disastrous 3-9 season where they opened 3-1 before losing their final eight games.  Longtime head coach David Cutcliffe was let go, and in comes the underrated Mike Elko to give them new life.  Elko has been a defensive coordinator at Wake Forest under Dave Clawson, at Notre Dame under Brian Kelly and at Texas A&M the last four years under Jimbo Fisher, so he is ready for this.

The cupboard is not bare for Elko as the Blue Devils return 11 starters and 50 lettermen this season.  He came through with the 48th-best recruiting class.  This was a young team last year despite most teams having almost everyone back, which was a big problem.  Four of the top five tacklers are back on defense, so Elko does have something to work with there and this will be one of the most improved stop units in the country after allowing 39.8 points and 517 yards per game last season.

The offense is in good hands with six returning starters including four starters and 124 career starts along the offensive line.  The new offensive coordinator is Kevin Johns, who led Memphis to 30.1, 31.0 and 40.4 points per game the last three years.  Duke moved the ball fine last year at 418 yards per game, but they managed just 22.8 points per game.  They averaged 18.3 yards per point, which was the 6th-worst mark in the country, and those teams tend to bounce back.

To be clear, the Temple Owls are going to be one of the worst teams in the country again.  They went 1-6 in 2020 and it didn't go any better last year as they were 3-9 with two of their wins coming against Akron and Wagner.  They averaged 16.3 points per game and gave up 37.5 points per game last season, getting outscored by 21.2 points per game.

The head coaching carousel now sees Temple with its 6th head coach in 7 seasons.  First-hear head coach Stan Drayton comes over after serving as running backs coach at Texas the last five years.  This was one of the worst hires in the country.  While Drayton does have 14 starters back, he had just the 84th-best recruiting class.  There are 12 freshmen or sophomores projected to start for Temple in the opener.  This is a complete rebuilding job.

Temple is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.  The Owls are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Blue Devils are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 non-conference games.  Duke is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. AAC opponents.  Bet Duke Friday.

15* CFB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on New Mexico State/Minnesota UNDER 53

Both Jerry Kill and PJ Fleck are big into playing defense and ball control.  I just don't see how they are going to combine to score more than 53 points in this one given their philosophy.  They also have the familiarity of Kill being a former head coach at Minnesota, so I don't expect Fleck to try and run it up on him, either.  This game will slow to a snail's pace in the second half.

Kill has nine defensive starters back for the Aggies.  The defense is the strength of the team as only four starters are back on offense.  Kill knows his best chance to win is to shorten games and control the ball on offense.  They did a great job of that in Week 0 in a 12-23 loss to Nevada.  The problem was the offense turned it over five times in a game they should have won.  They held Nevada to just 257 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  They can keep Minnesota in check, but I don't see them scoring much at all after managing just 303 yards and 5.1 per play against Nevada.

Minnesota is a 37-point favorite in this game.  Again, Fleck won't be looking to keep scoring late.  Minnesota allowed just 17.3 points and 279 yards per game last season as one of the nation's top defenses.  The Gophers managed just 25.5 points and 360 yards per game last season offensively, so it's not like they are that potent on that side of the ball.  They return just one starter along the offensive line.  They prefer to run the ball and will try and get the ground game going in Week 1, which will help shorten the game as well.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (New Mexico State) - in the first two weeks of the season, after closing out last season with four or more losses in their last five games, with nine or more defensive starters returning are 70-33 (68%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Golden Gophers last four home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* West Virginia/Pitt ESPN No-Brainer on West Virginia +7.5

Neal Brown enters his fourth season at West Virginia.  After going 5-7 his first year, he has taken the Mountaineers to bowl games each of the past two seasons.  He is doing a great job in recruiting, which is why I'm not concerned at all that the Mountaineers only return 11 starters.  Brown came through with the 27th-best recruiting class in 2022, while Pitt was 57th.

They will be much better offensively with seven starters back.  All five starters return on the offensive line.  Jarrett Doege was holding them back at QB and has transferred.  In comes JT Daniels, who made seven starts at Georgia and came over from USC.  The new offensive coordinator is Graham Harrell, who worked with Daniels at USC so there will be familiarity with the new offense.

The Mountaineers only return four starters on defense, but eight of the top 10 defensive linemen return and this will the strength of the stop unit.  Brown hit the transfer portal hard to fill out the rest of the defense, getting MLB Lee Kpogba from Syracuse, NB Jasir Cox from North Dakota State, CB Rashad Ajayi from Colorado State, SS Marcis Floyd from Murray State and FS Hershey McClaurin from JUCO.  I think the defense will be much better than everyone anticipates as the Mountaineers have been solid on this side of the ball all three seasons under Brown.

Pittsburgh comes into the season with massive expectations after winning the ACC last season and going 11-3 overall.  Keep in mind the Panthers never won more than eight games in the previous six seasons under Pat Narduzzi, and they hadn't won more than eight games in over 10 years.  While the Panthers do have 15 starters back, they lose all of their best players.

QB Kenny Pickett (4,319 yards, 42 TD, 7 INT) was drafted in the first round by the Steelers.  Top receiver Jordan Addison (100 receptions, 1,593 yards, 17 TD) transferred to USC to play under Lincoln Riley.  The loss of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple is also massive as he was the architect of Pitt's record-setting offense.  They will have a completely new scheme under OC Frank Cignetti, who spent the past two years at Boston College.

I just think Pitt comes in overrated based on last year's results.  They should not be laying over a touchdown to an underrated West Virginia team.  This is a heated rivalry as the Backyard Brawl returns for the first time since 2011.  Pitt won't have that big of a home-field advantage for this one, either.  Narduzzi is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Mountaineers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 September games.  Bet West Virginia Thursday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Connecticut +28

The UConn Huskies are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2022.  I love the Jim Mora hire.  He joined the staff for the final four games last year so he could recruit for this season.  He retained his DC in Lou Spanos, who held the same position under Mora at UCLA and was at UConn the last three years.

The Huskies welcome back 15 starters and 54 lettermen.  They return each of their top six tacklers on defense, and they have Penn State transfer Ta'Quan Roberson at quarterback to revive the offense.  They can only be better on both sides of the football.  The Huskies had five games decided by 14 points or less last year and should be more competitive this season.

Utah State is getting a lot of love to open the season after winning the Mountain West last year and going 11-3.  But keep in mind this was a veteran team last year with 19 returning starters.  Now the Aggies have just 12 returning starters in 2022 and only 34 lettermen coming back.

While the Aggies due have QB Logan Bonner back, they lost each of their top three receivers whoe combined for over 3,3300 yards and 31 touchdowns.  There will be some chemistry issues with Bonner and his receivers to start the season.

Defensively, the Aggies are sure to take a step back as well.  They return just five starters on that side of the ball and lose four of their top five tacklers.  Despite winning 11 games last year, keep in mind that the Aggies rarely blew out anyone as they had just two wins by this kind of margin.  It's asking too much of them to win by more than four touchdowns to beat us in the opener.  Take Connecticut Saturday.

20* Northwestern/Nebraska 2022 CFB Season Opener on Northwestern +13.5

Everything went wrong for Northwestern last season.  They finished just 3-9 while having an inexperienced team with eight returning starters.  Now they have 14 starters back and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder to start the season.  Pat Fitzgerald teams are always at their most dangerous when they have been counted out.

We saw this happen a few years ago when the Wildcats went from 3-9 in 2019 to 7-2 in 2020 and a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game.  Expect a similar turnaround in 2022 with all of the experience the Wildcats return.  They have nine starters back on offense and should be greatly improved on that side of the ball.

QB Ryan Hilinski was one of the top recruits in the country when he came out of high school and signed with South Carolina.  He was in the midst of a QB carousel at NW last year as three guys made starts.  Now the job looks to be his from the get go.  He'll have 1,000-yard rusher Evan Hull to hand the ball off to, plus all of his top receivers back outside of Stephon Robinson.  110 career starts return along the offensive line and this could be Fitzgerald's best O-Line in his 17 years here.

There are five starters back on defense.  The Wildcats had allowed 23.6 PPG or fewer in six consecutive season before allowing 29.0 PPG last year.  That's unacceptable under Fitgerald.  This will be one of the most improved defenses in the country with six of the top nine tacklers back.

Once again, Nebraska comes into the 2022 season with massive expectations that are unwarranted.  Scott Frost has gone just 15-29 in his four seasons here despite big expectations every season.  The Huskers are 5-20 in one-score games under Frost, and I expect this game to go down to the wire as well.

The Huskers only return 12 starters and have a ton of new faces this season through the transfer portal.  It will take them a few games to live up to their full potential.  Remember, they lost outright as 7-point road favorites at Illinois 30-22 in the opener last season, and that was Bret Bielema's first game as Illinois head coach.  They have gone 0-4 ATS in season openers under Frost and are just 1-7 ATS in their first two games.

Northwestern is 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four meetings decided by 8 points or less.  In fact, six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 11 points or fewer.  The Huskers are once again getting too much love to open the season, while the Wildcats are being grossly disrespected due to last year's results with a very young team.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* Rams/Bengals Super Bowl 56 No-Brainer on Cincinnati +4.5

Note: Scroll down for my Top 15 Prop Bets!

The Cincinnati Bengals have been grossly undervalued all postseason and even at the end of the regular season.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their lone loss came to the Browns in Week 18 in a meaningless game after they had already clinched the division.

After beating the Raiders 26-19 at home in the opening round, the Bengals have proven their toughness on the road by going into Tennessee and winning outright 19-16 as 4-point underdogs.  Then they trailed 21-3 at Kansas City, only to outscore the Chiefs 24-3 the rest of the way to pull the 27-24 upset as 7-point underdogs in OT.

Clearly, the Bengals feel like they are invincible right now after that comeback against the Chiefs.  They won't be phased by this being a 'road' game with the Rams hosting the Super Bowl.  Joe Burrow has made me a lot of money dating back to college, and I'm riding with him here.  He'll make enough plays to keep the Bengals in this game for four quarters, and he'll lead a comeback if he needs to.

But what is getting overlooked and has with this team all season is how well the defense has played.  The Bengals have allowed 24 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall.  They are allowing just 21.8 points per game this season, which is right on par with the Rams' 21.4 points per game.  Yet the Rams are perceived to have the much better defense due to all the stars they have.  For the Bengals defense, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.  They have been Top 5 in offense and Top 5 in defense in basically every major category since their bye week. 

The Rams benefited from getting to face a reeling, banged up Cardinals team, a depleted Bucs team and a 49ers team with arguably the worst quarterback in the playoffs.  This will be their toughest test of the postseason.  The Bengals had no such luxury as the Titans were as healthy as they had been all season, and the Chiefs were pretty much at full strength as well.  And both wins came on the road in hostile atmospheres.

Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last two seasons.  The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in road games this season.  Cincinnati is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.  Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Rams) - a hot team having won eight or more of their last 10 games, a top level team winning 75% or more of their games this season are 29-5 (85.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Simply put, the Rams shouldn't be more than 2.5-point favorites in this game.  There's value with Cincinnati.  Bet the Bengals in Super Bowl 56 Sunday.

My Top 15 Prop Bets in Order: (Most can be found at DraftKings)

1. Highest Scoring Half: 2H -120

2. No Score in 1st 6:00 of Game: -130

3. Team to Call 1st Timeout: Rams -140

4. Bengals Longest Punt O 52.5 Yards: -125

5. Team with the Longest Gross Punt: Bengals -115

6. Joe Mixon O 3.5 Receptions: -145

7. Joe Mixon O 26.5 Receiving Yards: -105

8. Will Rams Convert a 4th down: No +135

9. Cam Akers U 63.5 Rushing Yards: -110

10. Joe Mixon U 60.5 Rushing Yards: -115

11. Matthew Stafford U 5.5 Rushing Yards: -120

12. Cooper Kupp Longest Reception O 28.5 Yards: -145

13. 1st play of game: Pass +110

14. Rams U 3.5 Sacks: +105

15. Sony Michel O 18.5 Rushing Yards: -115