20* Bucs/Patriots NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England +7

The betting public is all over the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs in this game.  They don't believe Tom Brady is going to lose to his former team.  But that is where the point spread is the great equalizer, and it's time to 'sell high' on the Bucs here as 7-point road favorites against the Patriots.

The Bucs are fortunate to be 2-1 this season.  They overcame four turnovers in the opener and needed a last-second field goal to beat the Cowboys 31-29, failing to cover as 10-point favorites.  They only held a 3-point lead over the Falcons at home in the 2nd half before getting two straight pick-6's that turned the game.  And last week they lost outright 24-34 at the Rams as 1-point favorites.

The defending Super Bowl champion is almost always overvalued, and that was the case with the Chiefs last year.  That's the case with the Bucs this year, especially in this spot with Brady returning to face his former team.  While Brady and the offense are humming, the defense has been a problem in giving up 29.3 points and 402.0 yards per game this season.  They have been awful against the pass, allowing 338 passing yards per game.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Patriots, who are coming off an upset home loss to the New Orleans Saints last week.  But the Patriots gave that game away by being -3 in turnovers.  It was much closer than the final score, and the Patriots actually outgained the Saints by 48 yards in that contest.

The best unit on the field might be the Patriots defense.  They are giving up just 17.0 points per game and 282.3 yards per game this season.  Mac Jones has been up against three very good defenses, and this is actually a step down in class from what he has faced thus far in the Dolphins, Saints and Jets.  He is primed for his best game of the season.

Tampa Bay is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after allowing 275 or more passing yards in three straight games.  New England is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games as a home underdog.  The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington ML -115

The Washington Football Team has been a disappointment thus far in 2021.  They have gone 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS through three games.  It's time to 'buy low' on them, especially considering their two losses came to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Bills and Chargers.

Now Washington takes a big step down in class here against the Atlanta Falcons.  This is a Falcons team that was terrible in the preseason and terrible in their first two games, losing 32-6 to the Eagles at home and 48-25 to the Bucs on the road.

But now the Falcons are getting some respect from the books after upsetting the Giants 17-14 on the road last week.  That win comes with an asterisk as the Giants lost two of their top receivers during the game and were hamstrung on offense.

Washington has the better defense here, and I wouldn't be surprised if they have the better offense as Matt Ryan has looked washed this season.  But I fully expect a rally the troops type of effort from Washington based on comments made by Ron Rivera after the loss to the Bills.

Plays on any teams (Washington) - a good offensive team (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense that allows at least 5.8 YPP, after being outgained by 100 or more yards last game are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Atlanta is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games vs. teams who force 0.75 turnovers or fewer per game on the season.  Rivera is 26-9 ATS off a road loss as a head coach.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Washington Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Vikings +2

The Minnesota Vikings could easily be 3-0 against a very tough schedule thus far.  But since they are 1-2 they are undervalued right now.  They lost in OT in Week 1 at Cincinnati after fumbling when they were in field goal range for the game-winning kick.  They missed an extra point and the potential game-winning 37-yard field goal at Arizona in a 1-point loss in Week 2.

But last week they showed some resiliency and beat the Seahawks handily 30-17 in their first home game of the season.  They are a much better home team than a road team under Mike Zimmer through the years.  And their offense is hitting on all cylinders this season.

The Vikings are 8th in scoring offense at 29.0 points per game and 3rd in total offense at 425 yards pre game.  They didn't miss Dalvin Cook one bit last week as backup Alexander Mattison accounted for 171 yards from scrimmage.  But there's a good chance Cook returns this week as he returned to practice.

After losing to the Chiefs on the road in Week 1, the Browns have beaten two of the worst teams in the NFL at home the last two weeks in the Texans and Bears.  They basically beat two rookie quarterbacks in those two games as Davis Mills replaced an injured Tyrod Taylor early for the Texans and Justin Fields made his first career start for the Bears.

Now they take a big step up in class here against a motivated Vikings team that wants to get back to .500 on the season.  Kirk Cousins is playing some of the best football of his career.  Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after a win by more than 14 points.  The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.  The Vikings are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Western Kentucky +11

The Michigan State Spartans are overvalued due to their 4-0 start this season.  This is a bad spot for them now as they step out of conference off their 23-20 (OT) win over Nebraska last week.  They get back into Big Ten play next week and will have a hard time getting motivated to play Western Kentucky.

But Western Kentucky is no pushover.  The Hilltoppers are close to being 3-0 this season.  But they are undervalued due to being 1-2.  They only lost 35-38 to at Army as 6-point dogs, and their other loss was a 31-33 setback at home to Indiana as 9.5-point dogs.  If they can pay with Indiana, they can play with Michigan State.

The Hilltoppers will never be out of this game due to stud QB Bailey Zappe.  He is completing 73.1% of his passes for 1,224 yards with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions through three games.  He should be able to pick apart a Michigan State defense that allowed 283 passing yards to Northwestern, 388 to Miami and 255 to Nebraska.

Michigan State is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points.  The Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games when paying with 6 or less days' rest.  Michigan State is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  Bet Western Kentucky Saturday.

20* Northwestern/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Northwestern +11.5

We see this yearly with Northwestern.  Get off to a slow start then turn it on in the 2nd third of the season.  You won't get better value on the Wildcats than what we're getting this week as double-digit dogs to the Nebraska Cornhuskers the rest of the way.

Northwestern has losses to Michigan State and Duke, which aren't that bad of losses as both of those teams are improved.  Their handled their business in a 24-6 win over Indiana State, then put together their best performance of the season in a 35-6 win over Ohio as 13.5-point favorites last week.

Now they face a Nebraska team that came close to upsetting both Oklahoma and Michigan State on the road each of the last two weeks.  I think that works against the Huskers here.  This is a hangover spot after coming so close, and I question their motivation after a 2-3 start.  I trust Northwestern's motivation this week as they jump back into Big Ten play.

Nebraska has only covered this number once in its last 10 meetings with Northwestern.  The Wildcats either won outright or lost by 11 points or fewer in the other nine meetings.  Northwestern has gone 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

The Wildcats are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games as road underdogs.  The Wildcats are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 conference games.  The Huskers are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 home games.  Northwestern is 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to Nebraska.  Take Northwestern Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisiana Tech +19

This is a massive letdown spot for NC State.  The Wolfpack upset Clemson 27-21 (OT) as 10.5-point home dogs last week.  Now they step out of conference to face LA Tech, and they'll have a very hard time getting up for this game after that massive win.

Louisiana Tech is very close to being 4-0 and underrated right now due to their 2-2 record.  They blew a 34-14 4th quarter lead at Mississippi State and lost 34-35 as 20.5-point dogs.  They lsot 37-39 on a 33-yard hail mary to SMU as 10.5-point dogs.  

Those are two very good teams comparable to NC State.  In fact, NC State lost 10-24 at Mississippi State, so Louisiana Tech shouldn't be catching 19 points here.  This line should be much closer to 10 points.

There's good news for the Bulldogs too in getting starting QB Austin Kendall back from injury this week.  The West Virginia transfer has been great for Skip Holtz, completing 60.6% of his passes for 837 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions, while also rushing for three scores and 5.4 per carry this season.

NC State is 0-9 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt over the last three seasons.  It is losing by nearly 20 points per game in this spot.  Holtz is 36-20 ATS as a road underdog in all games as a head coach.  The Bulldogs are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 games as road dogs.  The Wolfpack are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a win.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on South Florida +21.5

The SMU Mustangs are coming off two straight improbable wins to get to 4-0 on the season.  They won on a hail mary 39-37 over Louisiana Tech, then followed it up with a 42-34 upset win as 9.5-point dogs at TCU.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Mustangs after beating a Big 12 team and fellow Texas team.  It's time to 'sell high' on them here as 21.5-point favorites over South Florida.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face the Bulls as they were the Horned Frogs last week.

This is a South Florida team that is undervalued due to its 1-3 record.  But they have played a brutal schedule of NC State, Florida and BYU.  Those are three of the better teams in the country.  NC State beat Clemson, Florida nearly upset Alabama, and BYU beat three Pac-12 teams and is unbeaten.

But USF covered against Florida in a 20-42 loss as 29-point dogs.  They also gave BYU a run for its money last week, only losing 27-35 as 24-point dogs.  And they won't be intimidated by SMU as this is actually a step down in class compared to what they've been facing thus far.

South Florida is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games after a game where they forced zero turnovers.  The Bulls are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games after trailing in their previous game by 17 points or more at halftime.  The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss +15

I'm a big fan of Ole Miss this season and they have not disappointed with their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start with three blowout victories.  Their offense with Heisman contender Matt Corrall gives them a chance to win every game they play.

They are averaging 52.7 points and 635.3 yards per game this season.  The improvement on defense has been just as impressive.  The Rebels are giving up just 20.7 points and 344.7 yards per game.

They gave defending national champion Alabama their toughest test of the season last year.  It was tied 42-42 in the 4th quarter and they eventually lost by 15.  This Ole Miss team is improved, and Alabama isn't as strong as they were last year, nearly losing to Florida as a similar 14-point favorite in a 2-point win.

You have to love the fact that Lane Kiffin now has two weeks to prepare for Alabama after having a bye last week.   The line has already moved towards the Rebels but I still think there's some value here at 14.5 in a game that should be decided by two touchdowns or less.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (Alabama) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (16-21 PPG), after scoring 20 points or more in the first half of two straight games are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1992.  The Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rebels are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Wisconsin ML -120

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Wisconsin Badgers.  Their season is on the line after a 1-2 start.  But those two losses were to two of the best teams in the country in #4 Penn State & #9 Notre Dame.  And both losses were misleading.

They outgained Penn State by 62 yards in their 10-16 home loss.  They outgained Notre Dame by 72 yards in their 13-41 loss on a neutral last week.  They actually led the Fighting Irish 13-10 early in the 4th quarter after a short field goal.  But then Notre Dame returned the next kickoff for a TD.  They added two pick 6's late in the game and scored 21 points off non-offensive touchdowns.  They outscored the Badgers 31-0 to close the 4th quarter.  It doesn't get any more misleading than that.

Wisconsin is favored over a ranked Michigan team for good reason here.  The season is on the line for the Badgers if they want to play a factor in the Big Ten title race.  They will put their best foot forward this week.

Michigan has feasted on one of the easiest schedules in the country.  Their four wins have all come at home over Western Michigan, Washington, Northern Illinois and Rutgers.  They struggled in their Big Ten opener against Rutgers last week.  They won 20-13 but were outgained by 77 yards.  Their offense was held to just 275 yards.

And they will struggle to move the ball on this stout Wisconsin defense that is giving up just 210.3 yards per game and 4 yards per play.  Despite the 1-2 start, the Badgers are still outgaining teams by 188 yards per game.  

The Badgers have crushed the Wolverines each of the last two years.  They won 49-11 on the road in 2020 and 35-14 at home in 2019 as short favorites in both games.  The Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games.  The Badgers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home meetings with Michigan.  You probably won't get better value on Wisconsin for the rest of the season.  This is Michigan's first road game.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Duke +20

The North Carolina Tar Heels had huge expectations coming into the season as a Top 10 team.  But upset losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech have put a damper on that.  And I question their motivation the rest of the way.

They were not only beaten by Georgia Tech, they were dominated physically in a 22-45 loss as 14.5-point favorites.  That's a bad sign for them moving forward, and I cannot believe they are getting this much respect as 20-point favorites over rival Duke this week.

Duke is quietly improved this season.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS and really could easily be 4-0.  Their lone loss came 28-31 at Charlotte, a game they gained 580 yards of offense in and actually outgained the 49ers by 102 yards.  They went on to outgain their next three opponents by 169, 156 and 77 yards in three straight victories.

This Duke offense clearly has the firepower to keep up with North Carolina.  In fact, the Blue Devils actually have better season long stats on offense.  They average 38.8 points and 544.5 yards per game, while UNC averages 37.5 points and 507.3 yards per game.  And it's not like the Tar Heels are stopping anyone, allowing 29.5 points per game this season compared to 26.0 for Duke.

The Blue Devils are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game.  David Cutcliffe is 10-1 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards per game in his last three games as a head coach.  The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet Duke Saturday.

20* BYU/Utah State CFB Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah State +10

The BYU Cougars are overvalued right now due to their 4-0 start and No. 13 ranking.  I successfully faded them last week and cashed in South Florida as a 24-point underdog in a 27-35 loss, and I'll gladly go against the Cougars again here as double-digit road favorites against Utah State.

Utah State was one of the most impressive teams in the country in the first three weeks.  They went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with upset road wins at Washington State as 18-point dogs and at Air Force as 9-point dogs.

But now it's time to 'buy low' on the Aggies this week after they lost 27-3 to Boise State last week.  That was one of the most misleading finals of the week.  Utah State had 443 total yards and only 3 points in that game.  That's because they committed three turnovers.

Utah State has one of the best offenses in the country and will never be out of this game because of it.  The Aggies average 31.5 points and 514.0 yards per game this season.  Blake Anderson brought a ton of talent with him over from Arkansas State, and it is especially paying off on offense.

BYU is also overvalued due to three wins over Pac-12 teams.  But they are 4-0 despite only outgaining their opponents by 1.3 yards per game on the season.  That's more like a .500 team than one that is 4-0.

BYU is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse.  The Cougars are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as favorites.  The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit home loss.  Utah State is 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 Friday games.  The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Bet Utah State Friday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Bengals OVER 45.5

Prime time OVERS have been money makers the last couple seasons.  And this game sets up to be an OVER game tonight with these two teams in the Jaguars and Bengals.  Both have suspect defenses.

The Jaguars have really been poor defensively.  They rank 28th in scoring defense at 30.3 points per game and 29th in total defense at 418 yards per game.  And they've only played one good offense in the Cardinals, who lite them up for 31 points last week.  The other two teams were the Broncos and Texans.

The Cincinnati Bengals have good defensive numbers thus far and may be improved on that side of the ball, but they have played two poor offenses in the Bears and Steelers.  They did give up 24 points and 403 total yards to the best offense they have faced in the Vikings.

The Jaguars have been able to move the football with 395 yards against the Texans and 361 yards against the Cardinals.  But they have killed themselves with turnovers, committing 10 of them already in three games.  That can also help the OVER by setting up easy scores for the Bengals.

Cincinnati does have an elite offense with great skill players.  They have played three tough defenses and have fared well against the Vikings, Bears and Steelers.  This is a big step down in class for them, and Joe Burrow is primed for his best game of the season.  I'm expecting the Bengals to score 30-plus to carry the load on this OVER.

Cincinnati is 6-0 OVER in home games with a total of 45.5 or higher over the last three seasons.  We are seeing 56.3 combined points per game in this spot.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Eagles/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +4

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Dallas Cowboys this week.  They took advantage of four Tampa Bay turnovers in Week 1 and covered in a 29-31 loss as 9-point underdogs.  Then last week they went on the road and upset the Chargers 20-17 as 3-point dogs on a last-second 56-yard field goal by Greg Zurlein.

So now the Cowboys go from being dogs in both of those games and substantial dogs at that to 4-point home favorites here against the Philadelphia Eagles.  This is a big overreaction as this game should be lined closer to a pick 'em.  There's a ton of value on the Eagles this week for a number of different reasons.

The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the NFL again this year after having one of the worst last year.  They are giving up 419.5 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  Compare that to Philadelphia, which is giving up just 283 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play this season, and you can see why I'm siding with the Eagles.  They just held the 49ers to 17 points and 306 total yards last week after giving up just 6 points and 260 total yards to the Falcons in Week 1.

The Eagles did struggle offensively last week against a very good 49ers defense, but they had their chances in that game and still outgained them with 328 total yards.  The Eagles are averaging 6.2 yards per play this season, which isn't far behind the Cowboys, who are averaging 6.4 yards per play.

And the injury situation is worse for the Cowboys than it is for the Eagles.  They are without T La'el Collins, WR Michael Gallup and DE Demarcus Lawrence.  They also have seven players questionable heading into this game, including WR Amari Cooper.   Jalen Hurts will make enough players to keep the Eagles in this game, and there's no question I trust Philadelphia's defense to get more stops than Dallas in this one.

Plays against home favorites (Dallas) - a poor team from last season that was outscored by 4.0 points per game or more, versus division opponents are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1993.  The Cowboys are 22-47 ATS in their last 69 games as home favorites.  Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite overall.  Roll with the Eagles Monday.

20* Packers/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 49

The Green Bay Packers gave up 55 combined points to the Saints and Lions the first two weeks.  Those aren't two particularly good offenses.  And the Packers continue to struggle stopping the run this year, which has always been a problem for them.  They rank 26th in the NFL in giving up 4.8 yards per carry.

The 49ers have always been able to run the ball down Green Bay's throats in recent meetings.  They will be able to do whatever they want offensively in this one.  The 49ers have scored 29.0 points per game in their first two games with a nice balance of run and pass.  They'll be up against a 49ers defense that is missing two of its best players in LB Dre Greenlaw and CB Jason Verrett.

The weakness of the entire 49ers team is their secondary, which is bad news going up against a guy like Aaron Rodgers.  He got right last week against the Lions in leading the Packers to 35 points and four touchdown passes.  He looked like his old self and should build on that this week by matching the 49ers score for score.

These teams met in the 2019-20 playoffs and combined for 57 points in a 37-20 San Francisco victory.  Then last year they combined for 51 points in a 34-17 victory by the Packers that saw the 49ers missing several key players on offense due to injuries, including QB Jimmy G.  I think they have no problem topping 49 points for a third straight meeting here.

The OVER is 19-10 in Kyle Shanahan's 29 games as a favorite as the coach of San Francisco.  The OVER is 4-0 in Packers last four games as underdogs.  The OVER is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Packers last six Week 3 games.  The OVER is 36-17 in Packers last 53 September games.  The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.

20* Bucs/Rams NFC No-Brainer on Los Angeles +1

No team has impressed me more than the Los Angeles Rams through two games.  After beating the Bears 34-14 at home in Week 1, they went on the road in Week 2 and beat the Colts 27-24.  That was even after handing the Colts seven free points on special teams when they snapped the ball into the up man and the Colts recovered it in the end zone.

The Rams are averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and giving up just 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining their opponents by 1.9 yards per play.  They have the same elite defense that they've had in years' past, and now they finally have a QB in Matthew Stafford fit for running Sean McVay's offense.  Stafford is completing 69.6% of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging a ridiculous 10.7 yards per attempt.

The Bucs are overhyped after their 2-0 start that has seen them score 31 points against the Cowboys and 48 more against the Falcons.  But they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Cowboys, and they got 14 points handed to them by the Falcons on tipped balls that resulted in pick-6's.  That was a 28-25 game in the 4th quarter before the Bucs scored three touchdowns without even blinking to put it away.  And the Falcons are terrible.

The Bucs put up gaudy offensive numbers against two of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Now they take a big step up in class here against the Rams, who led the NFL in total defense last year.  And we remember what the Rams did to them last year.  They went on the road at Tampa Bay and won 27-24 while limiting the Bucs to just 251 total yards.

Tom Brady had one of his worst games of the season, completing 26-of-48 passes for 216 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.  Even Jared Goff threw for 376 yards and three touchdowns on this Tampa Bay defense, so you can imagine what Stafford is going to do.  That's especially the case with all of the injuries the Bucs have in the secondary that has seen them give up 342 passing yards per game through two games thus far.

The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss.  Los Angeles is 22-8-1 ATS in its last 31 vs. NFC opponents.  The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Bucs.  Roll with the Rams Sunday.

15* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +6.5

I've been extremely impressed with the Los Angeles Chargers through two weeks.  They really should be 2-0.  They dominated more than the final score showed in their 20-16 victory at Washington in Week 1.  They racked up 424 total yards on a good Washington defense and outgained them by 165 yards.

Last week, the refs cost them the game against the Cowboys in a 17-20 loss on a 56-yard field goal at the buzzer by Greg Zurlein.  They had 408 more yards against the Cowboys, and Justin Herbert is quickly becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  He is completing 70.5% of his passes for 675 yards and averaging 7.7 yards per attempt this season.

The Kansas City Chiefs were fortunate to come back from a 9-point deficit late to beat the Browns 33-29 in Week 1.  Then last week they stumbled and lost 35-36 to the Baltimore Ravens despite getting a pick-six in that contest.  Their defense just cannot be trusted.  They rank last in the NFL in total defense at 469 yards per game and last in yards per play (7.6) allowed.

Dating back to last season, the Chiefs are now just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They just don't beat teams by more than one score because of their dreadful defense, so getting nearly a full touchdown here with the Chargers is an excellent value.  They'll never be out of this game with Herbert.  And the Chargers have the much better defense.  Holding Washington to 16 points and Dallas to 20 is no small feat.

Last year, the Chargers only lost 20-23 at home as 9-point underdogs to the Chiefs.  They had 479 total yards in that defeat.  They came back and won 38-21 in Week 17 on the road and had 416 more yards.  I would be shocked if the Chiefs won by a touchdown or more here.  And we're quickly seeing that the Super Bowl loser hangover is real with the Chiefs off to an 0-2 ATS start.  Yet they keep getting priced like they are the best team in the NFL week after week, which just isn't the case with their leaky defense..

Plays on road underdogs or PK (LA Chargers) - an excellent passing team from last season that averaged 275 or more passing yards per game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempt last game are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Chargers are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games off an upset loss as a home favorite.  Los Angeles is 35-14-4 ATS in its last 53 games as a road underdog.  The Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Kansas City.  Take the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +9.5

Washington hasn't lost a game by more than 8 points in any of their last 14 games dating back to last season.  That makes for a 14-0 system backing Washington pertaining to this 9.5-point spread against the Bills.  This team has been a money-making machine as an underdog.

I like the spot for Washington getting extra time to prepare after beating the Giants on Thursday last week.  Taylor Heinicke was excellent against the Giants.  He threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns with one interception.  He led the game-winning drive in the final couple minutes.  And he should make even more improvements this week with extra practice time to prepare to be the starter.

Washington's defense has too much talent to play as poorly as it has to this point.  Ron Rivera called out his defense after that win and they should play with a chip on their shoulder this week.  And it's actually a 'buy low' spot on Washington after failing to cover the spread in each of their first two games despite going 1-1 SU.

This is a great time to 'sell high' on Buffalo off its 35-0 win at Miami last week.  The Bills were fortunate that Tua Tagovailoa got hurt in that game and they got to face backup Jacoby Brissett.  And the Bills just simply own the Dolphins, so it wasn't a surprise.  Remember, the Bills were upset at home by the Steelers in Week 1.  And look how bad the Steelers played last week in an upset loss to the Raiders.

Josh Allen has yet to get going.  He is completing just 56% of his passes and averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.  Washington's defense is good enough to keep him in check.  Buffalo is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games off a division win by more than 10 points.  Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games off a win.  Bet Washington Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New England Patriots -2.5

The New Orleans Saints have been on the road for a month due to the hurricane.  It has been a terrible travel situation for them and they have to be getting fatigued both mentally and physically.  I think we saw some of that last week in their 26-7 loss to Carolina.  And I don't think it's going to get much better for them this week on the road at New England.

After taking advantage of a bad spot for the Packers, who were rusty without Aaron Rodgers most of training camp in a 38-3 win by the Saints, New Orleans came back down to reality last week.  Carolina beat them up and down the field.  They held the Saints to just 128 total yards in the first meaningful road start for Jameis Winston.  He want 11-of-22 for 111 yards with two interceptions in defeat.  He was also sacked four times.

I don't think it was any coincidence that the offense struggled considering they were missing as many as six offensive coaches due to COVID.  Those guys aren't likely to be back this week.  And they are still without WR's Malcolm Thomas and Tre'quan Smith as well as starting C Erik McCoy.  Defensively, the Saints are missing LB Kwon Alexander, DE Marcus Davenport and could be without their top CB in Marshon Lattimore again this week.

After giving the game away with a fumble at the goal line in a 16-17 home loss to the Dolphins in Week 1, the Patriots responded with an emphatic 25-6 beat down of the New York Jets on the road in Week 2.  That's the same Jets team that only lost by 5 to the Panthers the previous week, a Panthers team that beat the Saints by 19.  The Patriots forced four interceptions from Zach Wilson and will likely force a couple more from Winston this week.

The Patriots have been able to run the ball for over 100 yards each of their first two games, and Mac Jones isn't making mistakes.  Jones is completing 73.9% of his passes with one touchdown and zero interceptions this season and easily looks like the best of the rookie quarterbacks through two weeks.

This Patriots defense looks much improved this year, too.  They got back a handful of players that opted out last year and it has made a big difference.  New England is only giving up 11.5 points per game and 297.5 yards per game through two games.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 5th in total defense.

Bill Belichick is 81-45 ATS off a division game as the coach of the Patriots.  Belichick is 23-9 ATS after allowing 6 points or less as the coach of New England.  The Patriots are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a win by more than 14 points.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on South Florida +23

A lot of bettors were on Arizona State last week thinking it would be a letdown spot for BYU off back-to-back Pac-12 wins over Arizona and their hated rivals in BYU.  But it wasn't a letdown spot at all because another ranked Pac-12 team was coming to Provo, and the Cougars handled their business in a 27-17 win as 3.5-point dogs.

That game was a little misleading though as Arizona State gave the game away by committing four turnovers and actually outgained the Cougars by 65 yards.  Keep in mind BYU was also outgianed by 58 yards by Arizona in the opener in a 24-16 win.  That win looks even worse now after Arizona went on to lose to San Diego State 14-38 in Week 2 and outright as 26-point favorites to Northern Arizona in Week 3.

This is the letdown spot for BYU.  After facing three straight Pac-12 opponents, including the last two being ranked, the Cougars will fall flat on their faces with a poor South Florida team coming to town.  There's no way they will be up for USF like they were Utah and ASU.  And now BYU is the No. 15 ranked team in the country, and with that ranking comes a point spread tax.

South Florida showed big improvements from Week 1 to Week 2.  After losing their opener 45-0 to NC State, they covered as 29-point dogs in a 20-42 home loss to Florida.  And Florida nearly beat Alabama last week.  They made more strides last week by handling their business in a 38-17 win over Florida A&M.  And they will relish this opportunity to go on the road to try and knock off a ranked BYU team this week.  I like the fact that they have played a tough strength of schedule with Florida & NC State already so they won't be intimidated by BYU, either.

South Florida is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss, including 5-0 ATS in its last five games in this situation.  The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  South Florida is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four vs. Independent teams.  BYU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 58% or worse.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Western Kentucky +9.5

Tyson Helton is in his third season at Western Kentucky and appears to have his best team yet.  They did go 9-4 in his first season but this edition looks really good thus far.  A big reason for that is Houston Baptist transfer Bailey Zappe as their senior quarterback.

Zappe led the Hilltoppers to a 59-21 win over Tennessee-Martin as 22-point favorites in the opener.  And he nearly led them from behind in a 35-38 loss at Army as a 6-point dog.  That is a very good Army team.  Zappe is completing 74.7% of his passes for 859 yards with a 10-to-2 TD/INT ratio in only two games.

That's because Western Kentucky had a bye last week.  So that means the Hilltoppers have had two weeks to prepare to face Indiana, which is a huge advantage.  It gives them a great shot to not only cover as 9.5-point dogs here, but to win this game outright.

Indiana came into the season grossly overvalued after a surprising 6-2 seasons last year.  But keep in mind Indiana was actually outgained by 18 yards per game last year.  And they have not come close to living up to expectations this year and remain overvalued this week.

Indiana lost its opener 34-6 at Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog.  After beating Idaho 56-14, the Hoosiers came back and lost 24-38 at home as 4.5-point dogs to Cincinnati.  Now after a 1-2 start, they will have a hard time getting back up off the mat to face Western Kentucky after blowing that game against Cincinnati.

Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. came into the season coming off his second ACL surgery.  He looks like a shell of his former self.  Penix Jr. is completing just 48.3% of his passes for 448 yards with a 4-to-6 TD/INT ratio through three games.  He actually has -15 rushing yards on 10 attempts, so his rushing is no longer a factor.  He is also battling a hand injury right now.

The Hoosiers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites.  The Hilltoppers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  Western Kentucky is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games following a bye week.  Take Western Kentucky Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Akron +49.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes continue to be overvalued this week as 49.5-point favorites against Akron.  They are 2-1 SU but 0-2-1 ATS.  They failed to cover in a 45-31 win at Minnesota as 14-point favorites.  They lost outright to Oregon 28-35 as 15-point home favorites.  And they failed to cover in a 41-20 win over Tulsa as 24.5-point favorites last week what was a 7-point game with less than four minutes left in the 4th quarter before the Buckeyes tacked on two late touchdowns.

Making matters worse for the Buckeyes is that starting QB C.J. Stroud got injured in that Tulsa game and is doubtful to play Saturday.  Stroud had been impressive with 62.4% completions, 963 passing yards and eight touchdowns with three interceptions through three games.  Whoever is under center for the Buckeyes will be making their first career start here.

Akron is in Year 3 under head coach Tom Arth and is clearly improved this season.  Arth welcomed back 18 starters.  After losing badly at Auburn in the opener, they lost 24-45 to Temple in a game that was closer than the final score.  And last week they crushed Bryant 35-14 as 11.5-point favorites while racking up 514 total yards and holding Bryant to just 146, outgaining them by 368 yards.

Demarcus Irons replaced an injured Kato Nelson at quarterback and was fantastic against Bryant.  He completed 19-of-23 passes for 296 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 136 yards and a score.  I think Akron will be better off with Irons are QB moving forward if Nelson remains out.

Whoever is under center should be able to move the ball on a leaky Ohio State defense that clearly hasn't improved since last year.  The Buckeyes are giving up 471 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.  That's bad when you consider Minnesota and Tulsa aren't known for having great offenses, and even both of them put up big numbers.  Tulsa had 501 total yards on Ohio State last week.

Favorites of at least 49 points between two FBS teams are just 1-12 ATS since 1996, and 2-16 ATS since 1993.  These big favorites just don't seem to cover because it's asking a lot of them to be motivated enough for four quarters to put the opposition away.  And many times backups play the majority of the second half and they just try and get out of there with a win instead of running up the score.  Roll with Akron Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Southern Miss +45.5

Nick Saban just refused to run up the score against these weak non-conference teams.  He chooses to get a big lead in the first half, and then to replace his starters in the second half and sit on the lead by running the football and milking clock.  That makes it very hard for Alabama to cover these huge spreads.

With Alabama's No. 1 ranking comes a point spread tax, and that has shown up the last two weeks.  Alabama only beat Mercer 48-14 as a 54.5-point favorite in Week 2.  They came back and barely held on as a 14-point favorite in a 31-29 win at Florida.  And now the Crimson Tide have Ole Miss on deck next week, so this is a sandwich spot for them.  They just want to get out of here healthy and with a win.  They aren't concerned about running up the score.

Southern Miss has impressed me defensively.  I think their defense is good enough to hold Alabama in check to 48 points or fewer, just as Mercer did two weeks ago.  The Eagles are giving up just 17.3 points per game, 252.0 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play to this point.

Alabama is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite of 42.5 points or more.  The Crimson Tide are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 September games.  Alabama is 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. Conference USA opponents.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +20

This is a terrible spot for the Florida Gators.  They played their 'Game of the Year' last week against Alabama.  They rallied back from a 21-3 deficit and nearly forced overtime.  But they came up short on a 2-point conversion and lost 29-31.  Now it will be hard for them to get back up off the mat this week to face Tennessee.

I actually like what I've seen from this Vols team.  They won their opener by 32 over Bowling Green, gave Pitt all they could handle in 7-point loss, and blasted Tennessee Tech 56-0 last week.  The Vols should still be fresh after getting to rest their starters early in that shutout win last week.  The Gators are probably still pretty beat up both physically and mentally from playing Alabama.  

Florida has relied on its running game to move the football on offense this season.  They average 336 rushing yards per game and only 217 passing. That makes this a great matchup for Tennessee.  The Vols are only allowing 54 rushing yards per game and 1.7 yards per carry.  I know they haven't seen a rushing attack as good as Florida's, but those numbers are impressive nonetheless, and they can hold their own in that department.

Florida only beat Florida Atlantic by 21 and South Florida by 22 in its two games prior to Alabama.  Tennessee is better than both those teams and can stay within 20.  Florida is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games after a loss by 6 points or less.  The Gators are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.  I just think they are getting too much respect from oddsmakers this week after giving Alabama all they could handle.  This has the makings of a flat spot for the Gators.  Take Tennessee Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado State +23.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are overvalued after opening the season 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS.  Now you're paying a tax to back the Hawkeyes since they have a Top 5 ranking next to their name.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Hawkeyes this week.

Iowa just doesn't have the kind of offense it takes to cover these big spreads.  They are averaging just 298 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play on offense this season.  They have simply won with defense by forcing eight turnovers that have resulted in three non-offensive touchdowns and set up several others.

They run a methodical offense eating up most of the play clock before each snap, which is also going to make it hard for them to cover this big number.  They are winning in spite of poor play from QB Spencer Petras, who is completing just 58.3% (49-of-84) of his passes and averaging 153 passing yards per game and 5.0 per attempt.

Iowa's 30-7 win over Kent State last week was misleading, just as their wins over Indiana and Iowa State were as well due to the turnovers.  Kent State was driving to make it a 2-point game in the 3rd quarter but fumbled going into the end zone.  The Golden Flashes never trail by more than 16 until the Hawkeyes scored with 4:07 left in the 4th quarter.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on Colorado State because they had two upset losses to start the season to South Dakota State and Vanderbilt.  They were only outgained by 4 yards by a very good FSC team in SDSU and actually outgained Vanderbilt by 103 yards.  Their true colors showed last week in their 22-6 upset at Toledo has 14.5-point underdogs, and they will come into this game with Iowa with a ton of confidence because of it.  That's a Toledo team that nearly upset Notre Dame the week prior on the road.

Steve Addazio is a Big Ten-type coach who believes in physical football dating back to his time with Boston College, so he will have his players up for this test against a physical Iowa team.  The Rams have made it a priority to stop the run, and they've been great at it in allowing just 122 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry this season.  That gives them an excellent opportunity to slow this Iowa rushing attack and force Petras to try and beat them.

Addazio is 13-3 ATS in road games off a non-conference game as a head coach.  The Rams are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Hawkeyes could easily be looking ahead to Maryland and overlooking the Rams this week.  They're just not built to cover these big spreads with their weak, methodical offense.  They tend to play to their level of competition.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +20.5

Rutgers went 3-6 last season but was competitive in every game with its biggest loss coming by 22 points at Ohio State.  Greg Schiano brought back 21 starters this season, and this Rutgers team remains grossly underrated.

That has shown with a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season with the Scarlet Knights winnings 61-14 over Temple as a 14-point favorite, 17-7 at Syracuse as a 2.5-point favorite and 45-13 at home against Delaware as a 23.5-point favorite.  And they continue to get no respect from the books here as nearly 3-touchdown underdogs to Michigan.

The Wolverines are also 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS with home wins and covers over Western Michigan, Washington and Northern Illinois.  But unlike Rutgers, the Wolverines are starting to get some respect from oddsmakers.  It's time to 'sell high' on them this week.

You know Rutgers wants revenge from a 42-48 (OT) home loss to Michigan as an 11.5-point underdog last year.  They haven't forgotten that game, and you can bet Schiano will be reminding his team this week.  

The Scarlet Knights only give up 11.3 points, 259.7 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play this season.  So while their offensive numbers aren't impressive outside their 41.0 points per game, they are good enough defensively to keep them in this game for four quarters and make life difficult on Michigan's offense.

The Scarlet Knights are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.  Rutgers is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games.  Michigan is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Schiano is 11-2 ATS in his last 13 road games after scoring 37 points or more last game as a head coach.  Roll with Rutgers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Vanderbilt +35.5

You're paying a tax on Georgia due to their No. 2 ranking after beating Clemson in the opener.  Clemson nearly lost to Georgia Tech last week.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs, which I did successfully last week with South Carolina +32 in a 27-point loss at Georgia.  I'm fading them again this week with Vanderbilt as a 35.5-point home dog.

The Commodores have at least been competitive statistically this season during their 1-2 start that included a upset win at Colorado State and an 18-point loss to Stanford.  Colorado State went on to beat Toledo outright 22-6 as a 14.5-point dog last week.  And remember Stanford upset USC 42-28 that led to the firing of Clay Helton.  So those were two decent performances.

Georgia hasn't won any of its last seven meetings with Vanderbilt by more than 31 points.  That makes for a 7-0 system backing the Commodores pertaining to this 35.5-point spread.  And there were some elite Georgia teams in there and some really bad Vanderbilt teams.  It's simply asking too much of Georgia to go on the road and win by more than five touchdowns to beat us.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Bowling Green +31.5

The Bowling Green Falcons are in the third year of this rebuilding journey under head coach Scot Loeffler.  You can already tell this team is greatly improved, yet the oddsmakers and betting public fail to realize it.  We'll take advantage this week and cash in the Falcons as 31.5-point underdogs to the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Bowling Green is 3-0 ATS this season.  They covered in a 6-38 loss at Tennessee as 37-point dogs in their opener.  They covered in a 19-22 loss to South Alabama as 14-point dogs in Week 2.  And last week they crushed Murray State 27-10 as 1-point favorites.

I like what I've seen from Bowling Green QB Matt McDonald, a junior who is completing 71.4% of his passes for 716 yards with two touchdowns and only one interception.  This Falcons defense looks greatly improved, giving up a respectable 23.3 points, 347.7 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play this season.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Minnesota off their 30-0 win at Colorado last week as short underdogs.  That's a bad Colorado offense that was held to 7 points by Texas A&M the previous week.  And they had Texas A&M on the ropes and lost that game 10-7, so it definitely could have been a hangover spot for them against Minnesota last week.

It appears the betting public is quickly forgetting that Minnesota was fighting tooth and nail to beat fellow MAC opponent Miami Ohio the previous week.  They only won that game 31-26 as 18-point favorites and managed just 287 total yards in the win.  That's the same Miami Ohio team that lost 14-49 at Cincinnati the previous week.  I just don't think the Gophers have the firepower offensively to beat Bowling Green by more than 31 points, especially since they lost their best player in RB Mohamed Ibrahim to a season-ending injury.

This is a very low total with a 51-point total, so getting big points on an underdog in a game that is expected to be low scoring is great value.  Bowling Green is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games with a total set of 49.5 to 52 points.  The Falcons are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games off a home win by 17 points or more.  The Gophers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet Bowling Green Saturday.

20* Wake Forest/Virginia ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UNDER 69

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Virginia Cavaliers have both put up great offensive numbers this season.  That has this total inflated, and there's clearly value with the UNDER in this ACC showdown Friday night.

Virginia is scoring 41.3 points per game this season.  But they have played against some poor defenses in William & Mary, Illinois and North Carolina.  And that game against UNC is really what has this total inflated because it went way over the number.

Wake Forest is scoring 39.3 points per game this season.  But it has come against one of the weakest schedules of opposing defenses in the country with three home games against Old Dominion, Norfolk State and Florida State.

Wake Forest will definitely get more resistance here from Virginia's defense.  Conversely, this will be the best defense that Virginia has seen as well.  The UNDER is 3-0 in Wake Forest's three games this year because they have been dominant defensively.  They have held opponents to just 13.3 points per game, 308.3 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.

Last year Wake Forest beat Virginia 40-23 for 63 combined points and went over the 57.5-point total.  So they have set this total 11.5 points higher than last year's meeting, which also shows there is value with the UNDER considering both teams return mostly intact.

Plays on the UNDER in all teams where the total is 63 or higher (Virginia) - an excellent offensive team that is averaging 440 yards per game are or against a team with a good defense that allows 280 to 330 yards per game, after gaining 525 or more yards in their previous game are 27-7 (79.4%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Panthers/Texans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Carolina -7.5

The Carolina Panthers have been as impressive as anyone through two games this season.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS with a 19-14 win over the Jets as 3.5-point favorites and a 26-7 upset win over the Saints as 3-point underdogs.

That game against the Jets was misleading as the Panthers got off to a 16-0 lead before taking their foot off the gas.  They outgained the Jets by 129 yards.  The New Orleans win was as dominant as it gets as they held the Saints to just 128 total yards and outgained them by 255 yards.

This Carolina defense is one of the best in the NFL in giving up just 10.5 points and 190.0 yards per game.  Now they get to go up against a rookie quarterback in Davis Mills of Houston after Tyrod Taylor got hurt against the Browns last week.  The Texans dominated the Jaguars with Taylor and were hanging tough against the Browns with him, but then it went south with Mills in their 21-31 loss.

Mills went just 8-of-18 for 102 yards with one touchdown and one interception against the Browns with a 10.1 QBR.  Now he is on a short week and will only get in basically one or two practices.  This is a terrible spot for the Texans because of their QB situation, and I look for this dominant Panthers defensive line to get after Mills and make life difficult for him for four quarters.

This Carolina offense is humming now with Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator, Sam Darnold at quarterback and a healthy Christian McCaffrey back at running back.  McCaffrey makes all the difference for this team.  He has already rushed for 170 yards and caught 14 balls for 154 yards through two games.  Darnold is completing 68.5% of his passes and averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.

They should feast on a Houston defense that is allowing 26.0 points per game, 475 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  Even the Jaguars had nearly 400 yards against them, and the Browns completed 19 of 21 passes against them while also rushing for 156 yards on them.  Mills and the offense can't be trusted, and neither can this defense.

The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games after going under the total in their previous game.  Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a road loss.  The Texans are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games after playing their last game on the road.  Carolina is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  This is simply a terrible spot for the Texans.  Take the Panthers Thursday.

20* Marshall/Appalachian State ESPN No-Brainer on Marshall +7

I think we are getting some great line value on Marshall tonight against Appalachian State for one reason alone.  Appalachian State beat East Carolina 33-19 at home, while Marshall lost to East Carolina 38-42 at home.  But a deeper dive into those two games shows they were misleading finals.

For starters, East Carolina had a TD taken away right before half that should have stood against Appalachian State, which would have made it a 7-point game instead of a 14-point game.  Marshall had a 38-21 lead over East Carolina with less than 8 minutes to play in the 4th quarter, but gave up 21 unanswered points including an onside kick recovery.  That was as fluky a loss as it gets.

If Marshall had won that game by roughly 10 points, which they should have, this line would be closer to a pick 'em.  Also note that App State was only a 9-point favorite over East Carolina while Marshall was a 10.5-point favorite in that game.  So just last week they had Marshall power rated as a better team than Appalachian State.  I still have Marshall power rated as the better team, so they should not be catching 7 points here even with home-field advantage.

Marshall has already committed 9 turnovers this season and still should be 3-0, which is impressive.  They committed 3 turnovers in their 49-7 win over Navy in the opener.  They committed 3 more in their 44-10 win over NC Central in Week 2.  And last week they committed 3 more in their loss to East Carolina.  They can only be better in that department moving forward.

Marshall has one of the best offenses in the country, and it is going to be very difficult for Appalachian State to prepare for it on a short week.  The Thundering Herd rank 2nd in the country at 603.7 yards per game and 10th in scoring offense at 43.7 points per game.  They are 3rd in passing at 419.7 yards per game and 45th in rushing at 184.0 yards per game.

Appalachian State's 23-25 loss at Miami is also giving them more respect than they deserve.  That was a bad spot for Miami after their loss to Alabama in Week 1.  And they had Michigan State on deck in Week 3, so it was a flat spot for them.  Miami went on to get blown out by Michigan State, so the Hurricanes simply aren't very good.

Plays on road underdogs (Marshall) - a team from a second tier division 1 conference, against a team from a weak conference are 23-7 (76.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Mountaineers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as favorites.  The Thundering Herd are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.  They will be highly motivated to get the sour taste out of their mouth from that 17-point blown 4th quarter lead against ECU last week with an upset win at Appalachian State this week.  Bet Marshall Thursday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Packers OVER 48

This game has shootout written all over it Monday night.  The Detroit Lions showed they are going to be an 'over' team in Week 1.  They allowed 41 points and a whopping 8.0 yards per play against the San Francisco 49ers.  But they didn't quit, scoring 33 points on their own after a big 4th quarter behind Jared Goff.

The Lions are going to have to play in shootouts all season because of their leaky defense.  And things just got worse for them when they lost starting CB Jeffrey Okudah to a season-ending Achilles injury last season.  Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against this Detroit defense.

The Packers gave up 38 points to the Saints in Week 1.  That's a Saints team that is starting Jameis Winston and without their best receiver in Michael Thomas.  That was a very bad showing for the Packers defensively.  It was also a poor showing offensively, but I have no doubt they will get it turned around in Week 2.  There was clearly going to be some rust for them on offense after Aaron Rodgers sat out most of training camp.  And that was a good Saints defense.  This will be a much easier test for Rodgers and company this week.

Both meetings between the Lions and Packers were shootouts last year.  The Packers won 42-21 at home for 63 combined points.  Green Bay also won 31-24 on the road for 55 combined points.  I think we are getting a discount on this 48-point total here Monday night.

The OVER is 7-1 in Lions last eight games following a loss.  The OVER is 35-17 in Packers last 52 September games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Packers last six vs. NFC North opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Cincinnati Bengals +3

The Cincinnati Bengals were very competitive before Joe Burrow went down with an injury last year.  His 264 completions were the most ever by an NFL QB through their first 10 career games.  His five 300-yard passing games tied a Bengals season-season record.  He became the first rookie to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games.

Burrow has returned from his knee injury and actually got to play a drive in the preseason.  Reports coming out of camp are that his arm is stronger than it was before and he is fully recovered.  Burrow has a plethora of weapons now in WR's Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Ja'Marr Chase to go along with RB Joe Mixon.  But the key is the upgrades on the offensive line, where the Bengals didn't allow a single sack in three preseason games.

I cashed in the Bengals last week as +3.5 home dogs to the Minnesota Vikings, and I'm back on them again this week as 3-point road dogs to the Chicago Bears.  The Bengals led that game 21-7 in what was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  Burrow looked to be in midseason form, completing 20-of-27 passes for 261 yards and two touchdowns.  Mixon rushed for 127 yards and a score, and Chase went over 100 yards receiving in his first game in the NFL.

This is an improved front seven defensively for the Bengals as they held Dalvin Cook to 61 yards on 20 carries.  They held the Vikings to just 3.0 yards per rush.  That's important here because the Bears are going to be trying to run the ball, which is the only thing they did well last week against the Rams in rushing for 134 yards on 26 carries.  But that's where the bright spots ended for the Bears.

They averaged just 4.7 yards per play compared to 7.7 yards per play for the Rams, getting outgained by 3.0 yards per play in their 34-14 loss.  Andy Dalton was terrible and refused to try and stretch the field.  He averaged just 4.4 yards per pass attempt, throwing for 188 yards on 40 attempts.  More alarming may be this overrated Bears defense, which gave up 11.6 yards per pass attempt to Matthew Stafford.  Burrow is going to have a field day against this defense, too.

The Bears are without LB Danny Trevathan, RB Tarik Cohen and NT Eddie Goldman.  They could also be without T Jason Peters, who got hurt last week.  There is just turmoil surrounding this team at the QB position with whether or not Andy Dalton should be the starter, and I just don't trust them right now.

Plays against favorites (Chicago) - after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 96-49 (66.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bengals are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 September games.   The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as home favorites.  The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Bengals Sunday.

25* NFC South GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers +4

Talk about an overreaction.  The betting public loved seeing what the Saints did last week to the big bad Green Bay Packers.  They beat them 38-3 in an upset.  But the Packers had chemistry and injury issues coming into the season due to Aaron Rodgers sitting out training camp.  It was more bad Packers than it was good Saints, especially with the Packers giving the game away with three turnovers.

The lookahead line on this game was a pick 'em.  Now the Saints are 4-point favorites, a 4-point adjustment.  This despite the Panthers winning and covering in a 19-14 win over the Jets, doing what they were supposed to do.  And the Panthers led that game 16-0 so it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.

Sam Darnold was solid in his first start with the Panthers, and he should be even sharper in his second start under offensive genius Joe Brady.  Darnold went 24-of-35 passing for 279 yards and a touchdown without an interception against the Jets.  Having Christian McCaffrey back healthy makes all the difference for this team.  He rushed for 98 yards on 21 carries, while also catching nine balls for 89 yards.

Speaking of injuries, the Saints are far from healthy.  They are going to be without two of their best defensive players in CB Marshon Lattimore and DE Marcus Davenport.  They are already without their best receiver in Michael Thomas., plus fellow receiver Tre'quan Smith is out as well.  Starting C Erik McCoy went out last week and will miss this game, and this Saints offensive line will be up against an underrated Panthers defensive line that had 17 QB hurries last week. Jameis Winston just doesn't have many weapons right now, and he still needs to prove to me that he can be trusted to not turn the ball over.

Making matters worse is that the Saints have had eight members of the organization test positive for COVID.  The total includes six offensive coaches, one player and a nutritionist.  There will definitely be chemistry issues on the offensive side for the Saints, which is another factor working against Winston.

Sean Payton is 5-13 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of the Saints.  They are getting outscored by 2.8 points per game in this spot.  New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.  The underdog is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Rams -3.5

The Los Angeles Rams were as impressive as anyone in Week 1.  And they're a team I trust to carry it over into Week 2.  They beat the Bears 34-14 at home.  Matthew Stafford went 20-of-26 passing for 321 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover in his first start with the Rams.

This offense is going to be scary with how big of an upgrade he is over Jared Goff.  The Rams averaged 7.7 yards per play on offense and held Chicago to 4.7 yards per play on defense, outgaining them by 3.0 yards per play.  They had the top-ranked defense in the NFL last season and it will be dominant again this season.

The Colts are in a world of hurt right now.  They lost their opener 28-16 at home to the Seahawks.  They got a garbage time TD with two minutes left to make it look closer than it was.  They managed just 16 points in Carson Wentz's debut against a bad Seattle defense.  The Seahawks averaged 7.2 yards per play while the Colts managed just 4.7 yards per play, getting outgained by 2.5 yards per play.

Wentz has missed most of training camp and is rusty.  Not helping matters is the cluster injuries along the offensive line and at receiver.  They just lost tackle Eric Fisher to an Achilles injury last week.  They are without their best receiver in T.Y. Hilton.  This offense is a mess right now, and there are significant injuries on defense as well.  This team just can't be trusted early in the season until they show me something.

This is arguably the best team in the NFC West in the Rams in a division that went 4-0 last week with four blowout victories up against the worst division in the NFL in the AFC South that went 1-3 last week.  And the one win was the Texans over the Jaguars in a divisional matchup, so they were guaranteed to have at least one victory.

The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Sean McVey is 8-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of the Rams, and they are outscoring opponents by 16.2 points per game in this spot.  This might be the public and square side, but it really will be as as easy as it looks in my opinion.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State +11.5

I like Fresno State head coach Kalen DeBoer, who took over for Jeff Tedford last year after serving as his offensive coordinator previously.  It didn't go great in Year 1 but they did go 3-3 and will make a huge leap in Year 2.  DeBoer welcomes back 19 starters, a potent offense and an improved defense.

QB Jake Haener is back after completing 64.7% of his passes for 2,021 yards with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio in just six games last year.  Ronnie Rivers rushed for 507 yards and 7 TD in five games and made first-team All-Mountain West.  All of his top receivers are back as nine starters return in all on offense.

Where the Bulldogs will be most improved is on defense, where they return 10 starters and each of their top 12 tacklers.  That showed in their opener as they beat Connecticut 45-0 and held the Huskies to just 107 total yards.  They came back the next week and nearly upset Oregon, losing 24-31 as 18-point underdogs.  That performance looks even better now after Oregon just upset Ohio State last week on the road.  The Bulldogs got back up off the mat and crushed Cal Poly 63-10 last week as 31.5-point favorites.

Haener is completing 73.6% of his passes for 1,009 yards with an 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio through three games.  Rivers has rushed for 162 yards and a score.  And seven different receivers have caught touchdown passes.  This is one of the best offenses in the country, and the defense is so much better in giving up just 13.7 points per game, 246.3 yards per game and 3.6 yards per play thus far.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on UCLA, which is off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start.  The Bruins beat a bad Hawaii team 44-10 in their opener despite poor play from QB Dorian-Thompson Robinson, who I still have my concerns about with his inaccuracy.  Several special teams blunders by Hawaii led to easy scores for UCLA.

Then the Bruins came back and upset LSU 38-27 at home.  But that's a down LSU team that is missing more than a handful of starters due to injury, including their QB, RB and three of their best players on defense.  The Bruins have had two weeks to hear about how good they are in the media after having a bye last week.  They will come out complacent, and the bye week came at a terrible time as they had some momentum going.

The Bulldogs have been covering machines in going 37-17-2 ATS in their last 56 games overall, being grossly undervalued for years.  Fresno State is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 road games.  The Bulldogs are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win.  Fresno State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Bulldogs are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  The Bruins are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.  UCLA is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Fresno State Saturday.

15* Auburn/Penn State ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 53

Both Penn State and Auburn have been dominant defensively in the early going.  This Penn State defense is giving up just 11.5 points per game, 5.0 yards per pass attempt and 2.9 yards per carry against two very good offenses thus far in Wisconsin and Ball State.

Now the Nittany Lions will hold this Auburn offense and Bo Nix in check.  Nix has been tremendous at home throughout his career with a 20-to-1 TD/INT ratio at Jordan-Hare Stadium.  But Nix has a 9-to-10 TD/INT ratio on the road while completing just 54.5% of his passes.

I know Auburn has played two cupcakes thus far in Akron and Alabama State, but the defensive numbers are impressive nonetheless.  The Tigers have allowed just 5.0 points per game, 182.0 yards per game and 3.0 yards per play.  This is a Penn State offense that managed just 16 points against Wisconsin, and they will struggle to score points against this Auburn defense as well.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Tigers last seven road games.  The UNDER is 15-6 in Tigers last 21 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Nittany Lions last four September games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Nittany Lions last seven vs. SEC opponents.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Central Michigan +19.5

Jim McElwain is in his third season at Central Michigan, which is when coaches usually do their best work.  He came over from Florida and is familiar with the SEC.  Now he gets his chance to face a second SEC team in three weeks to open the season, and he and his players will relish the opportunity and look at this as their Super Bowl.

McElwain wasted no time putting his stamp on this program in his first season, guiding the Chippewas to an 8-6 season and a trip to the MAC Championship Game.  They did go just 3-3 last year but only had 10 starters back, and all three losses came to three of the best teams in the MAC in Ball State, Toledo (by 1) and Western Michigan (by 8).

But now McElwain has a whopping 20 starters back and will contend for a MAC Championship again this season.  I was impressed with their 24-34 loss at Missouri in the opener as they covered as 14-point underdogs and put up 475 total yards on that Missouri defense.  Then last week they shut out Robert Morris 45-0 to cover as 37.5-point favorites, avoiding the sandwich letdown.  Now they go into LSU with a ton of confidence.

Oh how far the mighty have fallen.  After winning the National Championship in 2019, LSU came back last season and went just 5-5.  They have not impressed me at all thus far in 2021, either.  They lost outright as favorites 27-38 at UCLA while giving up 470 total yards in their opener.  Then last week they failed to cover as 38-point favorites in a 34-7 home win over McNeese State.

It's not all Ed Orgeron's fault, but he is probably getting a little complacent with his team.  And no team has been hit harder by injuries in the early going than LSU.  The Tigers are without starting QB Myles Brennan, starting RB John Emery, starting DE Ali Gaye, starting S Jay Ward and starting DE Glen Logan.  Backup RB Armoni Goodwin is out, and starting RT Austin Deculus is questionable.

It's just hard to win by margin with the Tigers missing so much talent and so many starters to injury.  Not to mention this is a flat spot for them with their SEC opener against Mississippi State on deck next week.  And compound that with the fact that the Chippewas are much better than they get credit for nationally and treating this game like their Super Bowl, and we have a live underdog here Saturday.

LSU is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points.  McElwain is 15-6 ATS as the coach of Central Michigan.  The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Central Michigan is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  Roll with Central Michigan Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah State +9.5

Utah State went from 11-2 in 2018 to 7-6 in 2019 and just 1-5 last year.  Gary Andersen was clearly not the answer over the last two seasons.  So Utah State went out and hired Blake Anderson, who comes over from Arkansas State after leading the Red Wolves to six bowls in the past seven seasons.  

Anderson brought with him some elite transfers from the Red Wolves in QB Logan Bonner, first-team All-Sun Belt LB Justin Rice and WR Brandon Browning.  He inherits some good talent with 19 returning starters as well, so this isn't a rebuilding year.  And that has been evident in the early going for the Aggies.

They made their mark in Week 1 with a 26-23 upset win at Washington State as 18-point underdogs.  Then they avoided the letdown last week and crushed North Dakota 48-24 as 7.5-point favorites.  The offense is averaging 37.0 points and 531.0 yards per game this season.  Bonner is completing 66.7% of his passes for 533 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions.

Now they take on an Air Force team that hasn't played very good competition thus far.  The Falcons only beat Lafayette 35-14 as 40.5-point favorites in their opener.  And while a 23-3 win over Navy last week would normally look good, keep in mind Navy lost to Marshall 49-7 in their opener.  The Midshipmen are clearly one of the worst teams in the country this season.  And this is a letdown spot for the Falcons off that win over their rivals.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Utah State) - a team with a poor scoring defense last season that allowed 31 or more points per game, after a game where 70 combined points or more were scored are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS since 1992.  The Aggies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 September games.  This will be one of your final chances to 'buy low' on Utah State as the betting public will be catching on soon, so we'll take advantage here.  Roll with Utah State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on South Carolina +32

For starters, this is the largest underdog role for South Carolina since 1999.  So there's value here with the Gamecocks.  Georgia hasn't beaten South Carolina by more than 32 points in any of the last 44 meetings, making for a 44-0 system backing the Gamecocks.  You have to go all the way back to 1974 to find the last time the Bulldogs have won by this kind of margin.

I've been impressed with South Carolina's 2-0 start this season beating Eastern Illinois 46-0 and East Carolina 20-17.  They've shown me enough to know that they can stay within 32 points of Georgia, a team that isn't looking to run up scores, but one that just wants to stay healthy, win and advance.

Speaking of health, Georgia has some serious injury issues on offense.  Both QB's that have started the first two games of the season in JT Daniels and Stetson Bennett are banged up and questionable for this game.  They also have cluster injuries at receiver with George Pickens out, Darnell Washington out, Arik Gilbert doubtful, Dominick Blaylock questionable and Arian Smith probable.

It's just a great time to 'sell high' on Georgia, which upset Clemson in the opener in the biggest game of the year thus far.  Then they came back and won and covered without Daniels against UAB last week behind a brilliant performance from Bennett.  This is the week to go against them now that their stock is as high as it can be.  

The betting public wants nothing to do with this South Carolina team.  They went 2-8 last year and have a first-year head coach in Shane Beamer.  But he was one of the better hires in the country and is getting the most out of this team already.  Beamer coached here under Steve Spurrier and was an assistant head coach under Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma, so he has learned under the best.  He was also on Georgia's staff in 2016 and 2017 under Kirby Smart, which is a little hidden advantage for him.

Georgia is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  Smart is 0-6 ATS in home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite as the coach of Georgia having never covered in this role.  The Bulldogs are 30-53 ATS in their last 83 games following an ATS win.  The Gamecocks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Georgia.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Georgia Southern +24

This is the ultimate letdown and sandwich spot for Arkansas.  They are coming off a 40-21 upset victory over Texas last week that saw their fans storm the field and tear the goal posts down.  Now what's on deck next week? How about their SEC opener against Top 10 opponent Texas A&M.  They clearly won't be up for this game, and that will allow Georgia Southern to hang around.

They are looking at a Georgia Southern team that just lost 38-6 at Florida Atlantic last week and thinking they just have to show up to win.  But that game could have played out much differently if not for one play.  The Eagles were driving in to go up two touchdowns early and turned the ball over in the red zone.  It was all FAU from there, outscoring them 38-0 the rest of the way.

Georgia Southern is a sleeper in the underrated Sun Belt Conference this season.  Chad Lunsford is in his 5th season here and has gone 10-3, 7-6 and 8-5 over the past three seasons.  Four of their five losses last year came by one score with the only exception being their 14-point loss to Coastal Carolina, which was the best team in the conference last year and nearly went unbeaten.

They lost at Louisiana by 2, at Army by 1, at Georgia State by 6 and to Appalachian State by 8.  Those were four very good teams last year that all made bowl games.  So their only losses last year came to bowl teams.  Now Lunsford has 16 returning starters with eight on both sides of the ball to work with in 2021.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Eagles after their 0-2 ATS start.  The biggest reason for their poor start is that they have been without junior starting QB Justin Tomlin for their first two games.  Lunsford said that Tomlin, who was out due to an academic suspension, will start Saturday against Arkansas.  Tomlin has played in 16 games, including four starts.  So they have had to play a pair of freshmen QB's up to this point.

Tomlin is the key to this triple-option attack of Georgia Southern.  Arkansas only has one week to prepare for it and isn't used to seeing teams like this.  They faced a run-heavy team in Rice in their opener in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.  That game was actually tied 17-17 in the 4th quarter before Arkansas pulled away late for a 38-17 victory, including two touchdowns in the final four minutes.

The spot is just a terrible one for Arkansas here.  They aren't used to having expectations and they are used to being the underdog.  But now they have moved into the Top 20 in the polls after that win over Texas.  And with the Aggies on deck, they aren't going to be putting their best foot forward here against the Eagles, who are treating this game against an SEC opponent as their Super Bowl.  Take Georgia Southern Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Kent State +23.5

Sean Lewis has done one of the most underrated coaching jobs in the country at Kent State.  He took over a team that hadn't won more than 4 games in any of the previous five seasons.  And after going 2-10 in his first season in 2018, he got them to 7-6 in his 2nd season in 2019 and a bowl victory.  They went 3-1 in a shortened season last year with their only loss to powerhouse Buffalo.

They returned 18 starters this season, including a future NFL QB in Dustin Crum and 10 starters on offense.  Crum threw for nearly 1200 yards last season and accounted for 16 total touchdowns in only four games.  He is a dual-threat that will give Iowa problems.  Iowa isn't used to going up against these spread teams that run up-tempo offenses.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Hawkeyes if I've ever seen one.  They are coming off back-to-back wins against ranked teams in Indiana and Iowa State.  They won't be nearly as motivated to face Kent State as they were last week to win the Cy-Hawk trophy and shut up all the hype around their hated rivals in the Cyclones.

Iowa just doesn't have the kind of offense it takes to cover these big spreads.  They are averaging just 238 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play on offense this season.  They have simply won with defense by forcing seven turnovers that have resulted in three non-offensive touchdowns and set up several others.

They run a methodical offense eating up most of the play clock before each snap, which is also going to make it hard for them to cover this big number.  They are winning in spite of poor play from QB Spencer Petras, who is completing just 50% (24-of-48) of his passes and averaging 126 passing yards per game and 5.1 per attempt.

I like the fact that Kent State already played a Top 10 team in Texas A&M in their opener so they won't be phased by playing a team like Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are starting to read the press clippings and everything that comes with their Top 5 ranking.  This is the week they start to believe the hype and have a flat performance.  

The Golden Flashes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 yards in their previous game.  The Hawkeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. MAC opponents.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

15* VA Tech/WVU FS1 Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia -2.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on Virginia Tech.  The Hokies are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season.  They upset North Carolina at home in their opener 17-10 as the Tar Heels basically gave that game away with three turnovers.  They only managed 296 total yards against UNC and were outgained by 58 yards.

Then last week they avoided the letdown with a 35-14 win over Middle Tennessee, barely covering as a 20-point favorite.  But that game was much closer than the final score showed.  The Hokies only managed 383 total yards against a bad Middle Tennessee defense and only outgained them by 34 yards.

While this Virginia Tech defense is improved, the offense does not impress me at all.  The Hokies are only averaging 339.5 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play against two suspect defenses.  Now the Hokies will be without their biggest weapon on offense in TE James Mitchell, who had 26 receptions for 435 yards and 4 TD last season.  He got hurt against Middle Tennessee last week after having a big TD catch against UNC in the opener.

Now they take a big step up in class here against a West Virginia defense that was one of the best in the country last year, allowing just 20.5 points per game and 291 yards per game, which is no small feat playing in the Big 12.

Neal Brown in now in his 3rd season at WVU and this is his best team yet with 17 returning starters.  It didn't show in the opener against Maryland as the Mountaineers lost 30-24, but they gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 4-0.  And it's clear Maryland is greatly improved this season with a ton of talent on offense.

That was also a road game for West Virginia.  They returned home to beat Long Island 66-0 last week.  And the Mountaineers are now 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games, outscoring opponents by an average of 30.1 points per game.  You read that right folks.  They have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it will be a great atmosphere with Virginia Tech coming to town.  Take West Virginia Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Nebraska/Oklahoma OVER 61.5

Oklahoma has now averaged at least 42.1 points per game in six consecutive seasons.  Lincoln Riley has turned the Sooners into an offensive juggernaut.  And this total has been set too low today as Oklahoma should put up 42-plus points on Nebraska, and the Huskers should be able to keep pace for the most part.

The Sooners definitely won't be taking their foot off the gas on offense after nearly blowing a 37-14 halftime lead to Tulane in a 40-35 lead.  They came back last week and throttled Western Carolina 76-0.  And if they get the chance to add on against former Big 12 rival Nebraska they will do just that.

But this Nebraska offense is much improved under Scott Frost.  And they have been effective when Adrian Martinez has been healthy.  That has been the case through three games this season with the Huskers averaging 34.0 points per game and 513.7 yards per game.

It's going to be a perfect day in Norman, Oklahoma with temperatures in the 90's and light winds.  This will be an offensive-friendly atmosphere inside Gaylor Family Memorial Stadium with plenty of offensive fireworks.  Oklahoma has two starters in the secondary that are either questionable or doubtful for this one in NB Billy Bowman and CB Woodi Washington, and there are other injuries that will affect their depth on defense.

Plays on the OVER on home teams where the total is 56.5 to 63 (Oklahoma) - an excellent offense from last season that averaged 6.1 or more yards per play, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game are 28-7 (80%) over the last 10 seasons.  The OVER is 18-7-1 in Sooners last 26 home games.  The OVER is 15-5-1 in Sooners last 21 September games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* UCF/Louisville ESPN No-Brainer on UCF -6.5

Gus Malzahn made the right choice coming to UCF with the best talent at his disposal of all the Group of 5 teams.  UCF has been a juggernaut for years and continues to be under Malzahn.  That is already evident after two games this season.

I actually believe UCF to be undervalued due to their non-cover in a 36-31 win over Boise State as a 6-point favorite in the opener.  But the numbers show they should have won that game by 20-plus easily.   UCF had 573 total yards while holding Boise State to just 283 yards, outgaining them by 290 yards for the game.

The Knights came back the next week and put it on Bethune-Cookman 63-14 while covering as a 45.5-point favorite.  They had 671 total yards in that game.  Malzahn has elected to keep the up-tempo offense here at UCF that was made famous before him, and it is resulting in gaudy offensive numbers that make me want to lay points with the Knights.

Defensively, Malzahn brought in some transfers and some big-time recruits that has the Knights with one of the best front seven's in the country.  That has been evident as they have held Boise State to 20 rushing yards on 26 carries and Bethune-Cookman to 24 yards on 14 carries.  They are giving up just 1.1 yards per carry this season.

Louisville needs to be able to run the ball to be effective because the passing game just isn't very good.  This is a Cardinals team that went 4-7 last year and only brought back 13 starters.  They lost all of their top playmakers on offense in RB Javian Hawkins (822 yards, 7 TD last year) and WR's Dez Fitzpatrick and Tutu Atwell, who combined for 89 receptions, 1,458 yards and 10 TD last year.  That leaves too much on QB Malik Cunningham's shoulders.

Louisville was shut out in the first half by Ole Miss.  And that game was an even bigger blowout than the final score showed in a 24-43 defeat.  They gave up 569 total yards to Ole Miss and were held to 355 total yards.  I think we see a similar result here.  The Cardinals weren't very impressive in their 30-3 win over Eastern Kentucky as a 30-point favorite last week, either.

Louisville is 7-23-1 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games as home underdogs.  Louisville is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. AAC opponents.  This is another opportunity for the Knights to make a statement in a primetime National TV game, and I expect them to do just that.  Bet UCF Friday.

20* Giants/Washington NFC East No-Brainer on Washington -3

The Washington Football Team was a 5.5-point favorite on the lookahead line last week coming into this game.  Now they are only 3-point favorites, so there's value here based off of that and a couple other reasons.

The big reason for the move was the loss of Ryan Fitzpatrick to injury early in their 20-16 loss to the Chargers last week.  But Washington played well with Taylor Heinicke, who went 11-of-15 for 122 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 17 yards on three carries.  I don't think he is that much of a downgrade, at least not as much as it is being made out to be.

Washington was an Antonio Gibson fumble as his own 4-yard line away from winning that game against the Chargers despite getting outgained badly.  Washington's defense, which is one of the best in the NFL, held the Chargers to just 20 points and 5.4 yards per play.  Washington averaged 5.3 yards per play to compare.

The Giants lost 27-13 at home to the Broncos as 3-point underdogs in their opener.  Their offensive line, which is one of the worst in the NFL, was atrocious.  They managed just 60 rushing yards on 20 carries and 3.0 yards per carry.  Defensively, they gave up 420 total yards and 165 yards and 5.9 per carry on the ground, so the defensive front seven is a problem too.

That's where this game will be won.  Washington has the best defensive line in the NFL and will dominate this Giants offensive line, giving Daniel Jones all kinds of issues.  Jones is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.  Washington will be able to run the ball on this weak New York defense just as the Broncos did, which will take some pressure off of Heinicke.

Washington wants revenge after losing both meetings with the Giants by a combined 4 points last season.  But they shouldn't have lost either game.  They outgained New York 337 to 240 in their 20-19 road loss.  They came back and outgained the Giants 402 to 350 in their 20-23 home loss.  It's revenge time here Thursday night on a short week, which always favors the home team.  Bet Washington Thursday.

15* Ohio/LA-Lafayette ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Ohio +21

The Ohio Bobcats are now way undervalued after starting the season 0-2 with two upset losses.  They go from being 2.5-point favorites against Syracuse to 28.5-point favorites against Duquesne and now 21-point underdogs to Louisiana-Lafayette.  Talk about an overreaction.

While everyone is burying Ohio, they seem to just be forgiving Louisiana-Lafayette for their two performances to open the season.  The Rajin' Cajuns were overmatched in their 18-38 loss at Texas as 8.5-point underdogs.  And we saw what Texas did last week, getting upset in blowout fashion at Arkansas.  

Then last week Louisiana-Lafayette only beat Nicholls State 27-24 as 25.5-point favorites.  They gave up 511 total yards to Nicholls State and were fortunate to win.  I just think that loss to Texas after having such big expectations coming into the season has taken lot of steam and intensity out of the Rajin' Cajuns.  They had dreams of representing the group of 5 teams in a New Year's 6 bowl.  Those were crushed with the loss to Texas.

Ohio hasn't been as bad as the scores would suggest.  The Bobcats were only outgained by 39 yards by Syracuse in the opener.  They are giving up just 5.3 yards per play on defense while averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense, including 4.9 yards per carry and completing nearly 70% of their passes.  They are a great 'buy low' candidate moving forward, especially with 17 returning starters and tons of promise.

Louisiana is giving up 473.0 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season.  They are only averaging 387.5 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play.  They lost some players to the NFL and haven't been able to run the ball like they are used to.  They are averaging just 94 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season.

Plays on road underdogs (Ohio) - a team from a second tier division 1 conference against a team from a weak conference are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Bobcats are 8-0 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.  Ohio is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games off a close loss by 3 points or less.  The Bobcats are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games off a loss by 6 points or less.  Ohio is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as underdogs.  The Rajin' Cajuns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites.  Louisiana is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  Take Ohio Thursday.

20* Ravens/Raiders ESPN No-Brainer on Las Vegas +4

The Las Vegas Raiders went 8-8 last season and nearly beat the Kansas City Chiefs twice.  They made big improvements under John Gruden and got even better in the offseason.  Look for a big effort for them on Monday Night Football at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas in front of fans for the first time, which will be a big advantage as this has been anticipated by Raiders fans since the move to Vegas.

The Raiders are loaded on offense and finished 8th in total offense last season at 383.3 yards per game.  But the key is the improvement they will make defensively.  They brought in one of the best coordinators in the game in Gus Bradley.  They also added Yannick Ngakoue and Casey Hayward.  And they spent five of their first six picks in the NFL Draft on defense.

The Ravens were celebrating a 20-0 preseason run.  But it didn't last long because injuries have taken their toll on this team.  They lost their top three running backs in Dobbins, Edwards and Hill to potential season-ending injuries prior to the season.  They also lost starting CB Marcus Peters to a season-ending injury in practice this week.  They have injuries at receiver right now as well and are a mash unit coming into the season.

Teams have plenty of game film on Lamar Jackson now to know how to stop him.  Gus Bradley did just that a couple years ago when the Chargers upset the Ravens in the playoffs and Bradley was in charge of that defense that stopped him.  The Ravens ranked just 19th in total offense last year and relied heavily on the run, ranking 1st at 191.9 yards per game on the ground.  They only averaged 171.2 yards per game through the air.  Without their top three running backs, it's hard to see them having nearly as much success this season, especially to start.

The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Raiders Monday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Cincinnati Bengals +3.5

The Cincinnati Bengals were very competitive before Joe Burrow went down with an injury last year.  His 264 completions were the most ever by an NFL QB through their first 10 career games.  His five 300-yard passing games tied a Bengals season-season record.  He became the first rookie to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games.

Burrow has returned from his knee injury and actually got to play a drive in the preseason.  Reports coming out of camp are that his arm is stronger than it was before and he is fully recovers.  Burrow has a plethora of weapons now in WR's Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Ja'Marr Chase to go along with RB Joe Mixon.  But the key is the upgrades on the offensive line, where the Bengals didn't allow a single sack in three preseason games.

Speaking of the preseason, the Vikings were terrible.  They went 0-3 and scored just 13.7 points per game on offense while giving up 24.3 points per game on defense.  You can't make a lot of of the preseason, but it's worth noting that the Vikings were previously great in the preseason under Mike Zimmer, so he clearly takes it seriously.

I'm just not a big Kirk Cousins guy, and until they move on from him I'm not going to trust their offense even though he has some decent weapons in Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.  The big concern is a Vikings defense that took a huge step back last year.  They ranked 27th in total defense at 393.3 yards per game and 29th in scoring defense at 29.7 points per game.  They can only be better with improved health, but I don't think they will be any better than Cincinnati defensively this season.

This line indicates that the Vikings would be favored by 6 or more on a neutral field, and I just don't see it.  These teams are much closer power rated in my book with a healthy Joe Burrow for Cincinnati.  So getting 3.5 points with the Bengals in front of a raucous home crowd in anticipation of the return of Burrow is a great value here.

The Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  Cincinnati is 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 September games.  The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Titans OVER 52

The Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans will be two of the best offensive teams in the NFL this season.  The Titans ranked 2nd in the NFL in total offense last season at 396.4 yards per game and 4th in scoring offense at 30.8 points per game.  The Cardinals ranked 6th in total offense at 384.6 yards per game last year.

There's reasons to believe both offenses will be just as good if not better this season.  The Titans traded for Julio Jones, and he and AJ Brown form one of the best 1-2 punches at receiver in the NFL.  The Cardinals signed AJ Green to pair him with De'Andre Hopkins, giving the Cardinals an elite duo themselves.  It appears both Green and Jones have a lot left in the tank.

The Titans ranked 28th in total defense last year at 398.3 yards per game allowed while also giving up 27.4 points per game.  They did nothing to improve their defense in the offseason and will be terrible on that side of the ball once again.  The Cardinals have a middle-of-the-pack defense and the addition of JJ Watt won't do much other than provide name value.

The OVER is 22-7-1 in Titans last 30 games overall.  The OVER is 15-5-1 in Titans last 21 home games.  The OVER is 9-1 in Titans last 10 home games against NFC West opponents.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5

The Buffalo Bills are getting a lot of hype heading into this season after coming out of nowhere to make the AFC Championship Game last year.  They went 9-2 ATS over their final 11 games last year and put up gaudy offensive numbers.  So you're now paying a premium to back the Bills to start this season.

I did make a lot of money backing the Bills last year, and I am reasonably high on them.  Just not this high.  I like Josh Allen, but he's not going to have as big of a season as he did a year ago.  And it just seems like everyone is sleeping on the Pittsburgh Steelers after a 12-4 season that ended in a disappointing loss to the Cleveland Browns after the game got out of hand due to turnovers in the playoffs.

The Steelers boast an elite defense that ranked 3rd in the NFL last year at 305.8 yards per game and 3rd in scoring at 19.5 points per game allowed.  That defense can carry them this season.  Big Ben is motivated at 39 years old for one final Super Bowl run, and when he has been healthy he has been very good.  He is also in great shape.  He has a bunch of underrated receivers and tight ends, and now the Steelers should have an improved running game with the moves they made along the offensive line while also drafting Alabama RB Najee Harris in the first round.

Buffalo could not run the ball last year unless it was Josh Allen doing it.  They will be one-dimensional and easier to stop because of it.  They had a middle-of-the-pack defense last year ranking 14th in total defense at 352.5 yards per game.  And this line should just be closer to Buffalo -3 when you factor in home-field advantage.  I have these teams power rated similarly, so give the Bills 3 points for home-field advantage and that's what the line should be.  So we are getting 3 to 3.5 points of value here.

The Steelers are 23-8-2 ATS in their last 33 games as underdogs, including 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as road underdogs.  You would have to go back a few years to find the last time the Steelers were this big of an underdog with Big Ben as their starting quarterback.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

25* NFL Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +1

The Washington Football Team won the NFC East in Ron Rivera's first season.  They did so with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback for most of the season, and a hobbled Alex Smith for the majority of the rest of it.  That's because they had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season.

That will be the case again this season as Washington is loaded on defense, especially up front with arguably the best defensive line in the league.  They ranked 2nd in the NFL behind only the Rams in total defense last season, allowing 304.6 yards per game.

There's going to be drastic improvements on offense this season.  They brought in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was a money making machine with the Miami Dolphins last year and proved he still has it.  Studs Antonio Gibson (RB), Terry McLaurin (WR) and Logan Thomas (TE) are all back.  They added in WR's Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries to give Fitzpatrick more weapons.

The Chargers are getting a lot of hype because of the rookie year that Justin Herbert had.  He has some decent weapons, but he is working behind a revamped offensive line.  Herbert and the OLine will have to deal with crowd noise this season, which they didn't have last year.  And it will be a packed house in the nation's capital with fans rejuvenated for this team after they won the NFC East last year and their bright outlook.

I just like the chemistry for Washington to open the season with their staff and systems in place for a couple years now.  The Chargers are going into this season with a new head coach, new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator.  It is going to take them some time to gel.  And I certainly worry about them at the point of attack on both sides of the ball, where Washington is going to have a big advantage here.

Plays against favorites (LA Chargers) - in the first month of the season, a non-playoff team from last season that won their final two games are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Washington Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Eagles/Falcons OVER 48

I like the outlook of both the Eagles and Falcons on offense this season.  But I expect these to be two of the worst defenses in the NFL once again this season.  Atlanta gave up 25.9 points per game and nearly 400 yards per game last season.  They ranked 29th in total defense.  Philadelphia gave up 26.1 points per game last season.

The Eagles did get a spark offensively late in the year when Jalen Hurts took over at quarterback, and that experience gained will help him a ton coming into this season.  He led the Eagles for 1,312 yards of offense in his final three starts last year, which was 2nd in the NFL to only the Bills during that stretch.  I like the talent on offense with RB Mile Sanders, young receivers DeVonta Smith and Jalen Raegor, and a pair of elite tight ends in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.

Speaking of elite tight ends, the Falcons have a pair now themselves in top pick Kyle Pitts from Florida to go along with Hayden Hurst.  Calvin Ridley is one of the best young receivers in the NFL now too.  The addition of Pitts will help ease the loss of Julio Jones, who just wasn't used right in Atlanta, was always injured and almost never happy here.  So it's probably a good thing they moved on from him.

The Falcons should be improved offensively this season with head coach Arthur Smith running the show.  He comes from the Tennessee Titans, where he served as their offensive coordinator and helped lead the resurgence of QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry.  The Titans ranked 2nd in total offense and 4th in scoring offense last season.

Philadelphia signed an offensive mind in Nick Sirianni as their head coach.  He served as offensive coordinator under Frank Reich over the past three seasons.  Reich guided the Eagles to a Super Bowl under Doug Pederson.  So you have to like the OVER when both head coaches are offensive-minded.

The Eagles have a terrible secondary that the Falcons should be able to exploit, and there's just not much to like at all about this Falcons defense outside of maybe linebacker.  The conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome in Atlanta.  The OVER is 32-15 in Eagles last 47 road games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Utah/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -7

Kyle Whittingham is one of the best head coaches in the country.  He should have one of his best teams ever with 19 returning starters.  The Utes both the best offensive and defensive lines in the Pac-12, and teams that are strong at the point of attack are good 'bet on' teams.  And they bring QB Charlie Brewer from Baylor to run the offense.

Utah beat Weber State 40-17 as a 28.5-point favorite in the opener.  While that may not seem that impressive since they failed to cover, keep in mind Weber State is one of the best FCS teams in the country.  They were ranked as the 6th-best FCS team coming into the season.  The racked up 450 yards and held Weber State to 270 yards, outgaining them by 180 yards in the game.

Weber State would beat Arizona, which is who BYU played last week and barely snuck by.  The Cougars won that game 24-16 and failed to cover as 13.5-point favorites.  They managed just 368 yards and were actually outgained by 58 yards by Arizona.  That's a bad Arizona team that went 0-5 last season and is in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Jedd Fisch.

After a huge 11-1 season last year, BYU was due for some regression with all that they lost.  They brought back just 11 starters this season, which among the fewest in the country.  Only four starters are back on defense, and they allowed 426 yards to the Wildcats last week.  They lost QB Zach Wilson as a Top 5 pick in the NFL Draft after a 33-to-3 TD/INT ratio last year.  He is simply irreplaceable.  They also lost leading receiver Dax Milne (70 receptions, 1,188 yards, 8 TD last year).

Utah is 9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine meetings with BYU with five of the last eight wins coming by 7 points or more.  That includes a 30-12 in their most recent meeting at BYU in 2019.  The Utes play the big brother role very well in this rivalry and always bring their 'A' game when they meet the Cougars.  That 'A' game will be more than enough to win by more than a touchdown here tonight.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Washington/Michigan UNDER 48.5

Two teams with elite defenses and suspect offenses square off in this Pac-12 vs. Big Ten showdown when Washington travels to face Michigan Saturday night.  This has all the makings of a low-scoring game, especially with it expected to be windy in Ann Arbor Saturday night.

Washington just lost 13-7 to Montana last week as 22.5-point favorites.  Montana is a good team from the FCS, but it was still a bad loss nonetheless.  While the Huskies have an elite defense under defensive guru Jimmy Lake, their offense is a problem.  They managed just 291 total yards and committed three turnovers in the loss.  But they did hold Montana to 232 yards defensively.

Michigan put up a dominant 47-14 win over Western Michigan in the opener.  They took advantage of a bad Broncos defense, but holding their high-powered offense to just 14 points and 319 total yards was no small feat.  It's clear the Wolverines have made some big improvements on defense already this season under first-year coordinator Mike Macdonald, who comes over from the NFL's Ravens where he served under Jim's brother John Harbaugh.

Injuries at the skill positions for both teams will also help us cash this UNDER.  Michigan just lost leading receiver Ronnie Bell to a season-ending knee injury last week.  Bell led the team with 26 receptions for 401 yards last year and is a big-time talent.  Washington is missing four receivers, including three of its top four on the depth chart in Rome Odunze, Terrell Bynum and Ja'lynn Polk.

The UNDER is 9-1 in Huskies last 10 games as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Huskies last eight games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Huskies last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Wolverines last five vs. Pac-12 opponents.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on UAB +24.5

Bill Clark is one of the best head coaches in the country.  UAB didn't have a football program in 2015 and 2016.  Clark took over and guided them to an 8-5 season in 2017, 11-3 in 2018, 9-5 in 2019 and 6-3 in 2020.  The Blazers have just four losses by more than 24 points in those four seasons.

I fully expect them to be competitive with Georgia Saturday.  The Blazers return 17 starters and are one of the best teams in Conference USA.  They waxed Jacksonville State on September 1st 31-0 in their opener, gaining 518 yards and limiting them to 152 yards, outgaining them by 366 yards.  Now they've had nine days in between games to get ready for Georgia.

This is an awful spot for Georgia.  The Bulldogs are in a letdown spot off their huge win over Clemson last week.  They have their SEC opener against South Carolina on deck, so this is a sandwich spot.  And not to mention the Bulldogs are dealing with COVID issues right now and will be missing several key players due to that and injuries.  

They are really thin at receiver, and QB JT Daniels is battling an oblique injury.  The Bulldogs just want to get out of here with a win and aren't worried about getting margin.  This is UAB's Super Bowl.  Georgia is 29-53 ATS in its last 82 home games off an ATS win.  Take UAB Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on California +11.5

Justin Wilcox is one of the most underrated head coaches in college football.  He improved Cal from 5-7 in his first season to 7-6 in his second season and 8-5 in his third season.  Then Cal got a late start last season due to COVID and their first game was against UCLA, which was scheduled just three days prior to playing it.

Cal went on the road with a defensive line that wasn't able to practice with the team for two weeks and loss.  Then they lost by 4 to Oregon State and had a PAT blocked in a 1-point loss to Stanford.  After the 0-3 start, the Bears showed some heart with their upset win over Oregon in their finale.  The Ducks went on to win the Pac-12.

Cal has now had a normal spring and is off to a way better start than they were last season because of it.  Wilcox welcomes back 17 starters, and 28 of 33 players who made starts last season.  This will be one of the best defenses in the country, and the offense should be the best of the Wilcox era behind third-year starting QB Chase Garbers and nine returning starters on offense.

I think we're getting good value on Cal this week after getting upset by Nevada at home last week.  But Nevada is one of the best teams in the Mountain West with an NFL QB in Carson Strong, who led the Wolf Pack to a 22-17 victory.  The Bears holding that offense to 22 points is no small feat.  And because of their defense they just tend to play in close, low-scoring games.  I expect more of the same here against TCU.

The Horned Frogs made easy work of Duquesne 45-3 last week.  But they were 42-point favorites so they didn't even cover against one of the worst FCS teams in the country.  I think the fact that Cal play a legit opponent in the opener will have them more prepared for this game than TCU will be after playing Duquesne.

California is a sensational 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points.  California is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games as an underdog.  The Golden Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.  The Horned Frogs are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games as home favorites.  This is simply too many points.  Roll with California Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Georgia Southern +7

Georgia Southern is a sleeper in the underrated Sun Belt Conference this season.  Chad Lunsford is in his 5th season here and has gone 10-3, 7-6 and 8-5 over the past three seasons.  Four of their five losses last year came by one score with the only exception being their 14-point loss to Coastal Carolina, which was the best team in the conference last year and nearly went unbeaten.

They lost at Louisiana by 2, at Army by 1, at Georgia State by 6 and to Appalachian State by 8.  Those were four very good teams last year that all made bowl games.  So their only losses last year came to bowl teams.  Now Lunsford has 16 returning starters with eight on both sides of the ball to work with in 2021.

I think the fact that Georgia Southern only won 30-25 as a 28.5-point favorite against Gardner Webb last week has them undervalued coming into this week.  They are a triple-option team built for close games.  They rushed for 365 yards on Gardner Webb and will certainly be able to run the ball on Florida Atlantic here to keep this game close, possibly pulling off the upset.

Willie Taggart has been a big disappointment, failing at Oregon and Florida State before coming here to Florida Atlantic last year.  He had to fill the big shoes left behind by Lane Kiffin and didn't do a very good job.  The Owls went just 5-4 last year with their only wins coming against Charloote, WKU, FIU, UMass and UTSA.

One of their losses last season came to Georgia Southern by a final of 20-3.  Georgia Southern rushed for 269 yards on them in the win.  And they should have similar success here, especially after Florida Atlantic just allowed 400 rushing yards on 46 carries in a 35-14 loss to Florida last week.  They are beat up from that physical loss, and they only get a week to prepare for the Eagles' triple-option this week.

Florida Atlantic is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less, including 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Eagles are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  The Owls are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games vs. Sun Belt opponents.  Take Georgia Southern Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers -2

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are a team I'm high on in the Big Ten.  The Syracuse Orange are a team I'm way down on in the ACC.  So it makes sense that I'm on Rutgers here where they basically just have to win the game as 2-point favorites to cover.

It's a team that went 3-6 in Greg Schiano's first season last year but was competitive in every game.  Now they return 21 starters and I just think Schiano is one of the best coaches in the country.  The Scarlet Knights are off to a great start with their 61-14 beat down of Temple.

Clearly it was a misleading final as they won the turnover battle 5-0.  But they were dominant nonetheless and could be vanilla on offense not having to show much.  They held Temple to 8-of-27 passing in the win.

Syracuse did pick up a good win itself in a 29-9 victory at Ohio last week.  And I think the Orange are now getting some respect from oddsmakers after that upset victory.  But that win was also misleading as Syracuse only outgained Ohio by 39 yards.  That's a down Ohio team this season as well.

Syracuse went 1-10 last year and were outgained by nearly 200 yards per game, and I don't expect them to be much better this year.  So we're getting a middle of the pack team from the Big Ten up against a bottom feeder in the ACC, and I'll take the Big Ten in this matchup almost every time.

Syracuse is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games off an upset win as an underdog by 14 points or more.  Dino Babers is 0-6 ATS after allowing 9 points or less as the coach of Syracuse.  The Scarlet Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Orange are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

15* WKU/Army CFB Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 51.5

Western Kentucky clearly wants to chuck it around the yard this season and score some points.  That was evident in their 59-21 win over Tennessee-Martin in the opener.  Houston Baptist transfer QB Bailey Zappe is the real deal.  He threw for over 10,000 yards and 78 touchdowns in his four years there.

Zappe went 28-of-35 for 424 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception in the opener.  The Hilltoppers threw for 478 yards as a team.  And they should be able to move the ball through the air at will on this Army defense, which isn't used to preparing for these types of wide open passing attacks.

Conversely, Army should be able to run the ball at will on this soft WKU defense that allowed 201 rushing yards on 34 carries to Tennessee-Martin last week.  Army rushed for 258 yards in its 43-10 win over Georgia State in the opener.  The Black Knights are up against an inexperienced Hilltoppers defense that returned just four starters this season.

Western Kentucky is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards in its last game.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hilltoppers last four games overall.  The OVER is 10-4-1 in Black Knights last 15 September games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* UTEP/Boise State FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UTEP +26

The UTEP Miners finally have some stability as they have stuck with head coach Dana Dimel.  After going 1-11 in each of his first two seasons, Dimel guided the Miners to a 3-5 season last year.  They were competitive in every game outside their losses to Texas from the Big 12 and the best team in Conference USA in UTSA.

Now Dimel is in his fourth season and brings back 19 starters this season, including all 11 on offense.  And the Miners are off to an impressive 2-0 start.  They beat New Mexico 30-3 as 9.5-point road favorites, racking up 452 total yards and outgaining the Aggies by 262 yards.  Then they beat Bethune-Cookman 38-28 last week, racking up 473 total yards and outgaining them by 140 yards.

The win over New Mexico State looks even better now after the Aggies went into San Diego State last week and outgained a very good Aztecs team by 11 yards.  They gained 374 yards on a very good San Diego State defense after only managing 190 yards against UTEP.  So this is a big 'buy on' sign on the Miners.

Boise State failed to win the Mountain West last year.  Head coach Bryan Harsin bolted for Auburn.  That leaves Andy Avalos to try and pick up the pieces.  He was the defensive coordinator at Oregon the past two seasons.  And I just think this is a Boise State program that is finally on the decline under Avalos.

The 31-36 loss to UCF last week was extremely misleading.  Boise State only managed 283 yards against UCF and was outgained by 290 yards after giving up 573 total yards to the Knights.  The Broncos managed just 20 rushing yards on 26 attempts, and they gave up 255 rushing yards on 48 attempts.  

I think UTEP can run on this Boise State defense and shorten the game.  The Miners are averaging 246 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry through two weeks.  QB Davin Hardison has played well, completing 64.1% of his passes for 432 yards with three touchdowns and only one interception while averaging 11 yards per attempt.  Hardison can make some plays if he has to.

The Miners are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  UTEP is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Boise State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games off an ATS win.  Keep in mind this is a tough spot for Boise coming off that huge game against UCF and with Oklahoma State on deck next week, making this a sandwich spot.  Bet UTEP Friday.

15* Cowboys/Bucs NFL Season Opener on Tampa Bay -8

Home teams on Thursday night NFL season openers have gone 15-2 SU in the last 17 games.  These teams coming off a Super Bowl win at home usually tend to play well in that first game back the next season.  And that should be the case with the Tampa Bay Bucs, especially now that they'll have a big home-field advantage with a packed house of home fans.

The Bucs are primed to be one of the best teams in the NFL again.  They return all 22 starters from last season, so the chemistry will be there.  The Bucs started slow last year in Tom Brady's first season, but they kept getting better and better as the season progressed, culminating in a dominant win over the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.  They should pick up right where they left off.

Conversely, the Dallas Cowboys have a ton of issues they are dealing with right now.  Dak Prescott is coming off a shoulder injury and didn't get to play in the preseason.  He will be rusty.  He'll be working behind a depleted offensive line that will be without Zack Martin, Brandon KNights, Josh Ball and Mitch Hyatt.  Tyron Smith and La'el Collins are also battling injuries and questionable.

While the Bucs will get plenty of stops with their elite defense, the Cowboys aren't likely to get many, which is why I'm willing to lay the points here.  Dallas gave up 29.6 points and 386.4 yards per game last season and did little to improve their defense on offense.  Instead, they have put their money in their flashy offense at the skill positions.  They aren't building this thing the right way.

Dallas went 0-8 ATS in the first half of the season last season.  Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games with a total set of 49.5 or higher.  The Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Bucs are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Buccaneers Thursday.

20* Louisville/Ole Miss ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss -9

I have high hopes for the Ole Miss Rebels this season.  They did great to get to 5-5 in Lane Kiffin's first season last year after a win over Indiana in their bowl game.  They gave Alabama their toughest game of the season as it was tied 42-42 in the 4th quarter to flash their potential.

Now Kiffin welcomes back 17 starters and some of the best talent in the entire country thanks to the job he has done in recruiting plus what was done before he got there.  The offense is going to be one of the best in the country after averaging 39.2 points and 556 yards per game last season.  Eight starters are back including QB Matt Corral, who completed 79.9% of his passes for 3,337 yards and 29 touchdowns last year, while also rushing for 506 yards and four scores.

The offense will get their points, and the defense should be one of the most improved in the land with nine starters back.  They will be much better conditioned to deal with all the plays they have to face due to their quick-paces offense.  Ole Miss had to face 77 plays per game last year and should be in better shape to deal with it this year.

Louisville took a big step back in Scott Satterfield's second season last year, which is a bad sign.  After going 8-5 in 2019 they slipped to 4-7 last year.  Their four wins came against Western Kentucky, FSU, Syracuse and Wake Forest in four games they were favored in.  And now they have just 13 starters back, which is a low amount compared to most teams in this aberration season.  

They lost three of their biggest playmakers on offense.  WR's Dre Fitzpatrick and Tutu Atwell are gone after combining for 89 receptions, 1,458 yards and 10 touchdowns last season.  Leading rusher Javian Hawkins (822 yards, 7 TD, 6.2/carry) is also gone.  Five of the top seven tacklers have departed on defense as well, which is going to make the task of stopping Ole Miss' offense in the opener a daunting one.  Bet Ole Miss Monday.

15* Notre Dame/FSU ABC ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +7

The Florida State Seminoles are primed to make a big leap forward in head coach Mike Norvell's second season.  He stepped into a difficult situation last year and had just three spring practices to get his team ready.  At the end of the year due to opt outs, transfer and injuries, Norvell had just 50 scholarship players to work with.

The talent is definitely there at Florida State now.  Norvell has 17 returning starters and another great recruiting class.  I think this is the year the Seminoles finally start to turn things around since Jimbo Fisher left, and it starts in Week 1 against Notre Dame.  Norvell is an offensive genius, and he has 10 returning starters on offense plus brings in UCF transfer McKenzie Milton at quarterback.

Notre Dame loses almost everyone from the team that went 10-2 last season and made the four-team playoff.  They have just nine starters back in all, which is very low for this season in particular compared to every other team.  They must replace nine NFL draft picks, including QB Ian Book, who set a career ND record with 30 wins.  

There's a reason QB Jack Coan was replaced as the starter at Wisconsin, and he is a big downgrade from Book.  And he'll be working with four new starters alone the offensive line.  It will be a rough start to the season offensively.  The defense should still be solid, but it's worth noting they did allow 31 or more points in four of their final six games last year.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Florida State) - a bad defensive team from last season that allowed 425 or more yards per game, with eight or more offensive starters plus the QB returning in the first month of the season are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS since 1992.  Take Florida State Sunday.

15* Nevada/Cal FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on California -3

Justin Wilcox is one of the most underrated head coaches in college football.  He improved Cal from 5-7 in his first season to 7-6 in his second season and 8-5 in his third season.  Then Cal got a late start last season due to COVID and their first game was against UCLA, which was scheduled just three days prior to playing it.

Cal went on the road with a defensive line that wasn't able to practice with the team for two weeks and loss.  Then they lost by 4 to Oregon State and had a PAT blocked in a 1-point loss to Stanford.  After the 0-3 start, the Bears showed some heart with their upset win over Oregon in their finale.  The Ducks went on to win the Pac-12.

Cal has now had a normal spring and is off to a way better start than they were last season because of it.  Wilcox welcomes back 17 starters, and 28 of 33 players who made starts last season.  This will be one of the best defenses in the country, and the offense should be the best of the Wilcox era behind third-year starting QB Chase Garbers and nine returning starters on offense.

Nevada is getting a lot of hype coming into the season.  The Wolf Pack went 7-2 last season, but it came against what turned out to be a very weak Mountain West.  They had one-score wins over Wyoming, New Mexico and San Diego State.  The other four wins came against UNLV, Fresno State and Tulane.  And they lost their toughest game to San Jose State in the Mountain West Championship Game.

No question the Wolf Pack have a great offense and great QB in Carson Strong.  But they are a flashy team.  Cal's defense will be up to the task, and a bigger concern for Nevada is a defense that allowed 599 yards to Fresno State and 506 yards to San Jose State in their final two games of the regular season last year.

Cal is undefeated in regular season non-conference games under Wilcox, going a perfect 9-0 SU with wins over the likes of Ole Miss (twice), UNC (twice) and BYU.  The Golden Bears lead the all-time series with Nevada 22-3-1.   Roll with California Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on South Alabama ML -115

South Alabama is definitely a sleeper in what has turned out to be a very underrated Sun Belt Conference this season.  Louisiana, Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State proved last year that the Sun Belt is no joke.  And the Jaguars are definitely flying under the radar this year in that conference.

First-year head coach Kan Wommack spent the last two years as the defensive coordinator at Indiana.  He is a familiar face here as he was the defensive coordinator for the Jaguars previously.  Wommack finished as a finalist for the Broyles Award last year, which goes to the top assistant coach.  He brings with him offensive coordinator Major Applewhite, the former Houston head coach.

Wommack has 17 returning starters to work with and a ton of talent.  He brought in Utah transfer Jake Bentley to start at quarterback.  He also brought in Mississippi State transfer Kareem Walker at running back, who was one of the top recruits in the country coming out of high school.  RG James Jackson is a Mississippi State transfer, and WR Allen Dailey is a Kentucky transfer.

The Jaguars already boast one of the conference's best receivers in Jalen Tolbert, who had 64 receptions for 1,085 yards and eight touchdowns in 11 games last year.  They have one of the best defensive lines in the Sun Belt.  And keep in mind they beat what at the time was a healthy Southern Miss team outright as 13-point underdogs in the opener last year.

Speaking of Southern Miss, the Golden Eagles are on the decline.  They went just 3-7 last year and went through three different head coaches.  They settled on former Tulane offensive coordinator Will Hall as their new head coach.  He does inherit 17 returning starters, but there are a ton of questions surrounding this team.

There is no proven QB to turn to here at Southern Miss as they lose their top two from last year.  The defense is a problem after allowing 32.3 points and 181 rushing yards per game last year.  This defense gave up 32 points and 526 total yards to South Alabama last year.

The Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games, including 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as home favorites.  The Golden Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Bet South Alabama on the money line Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Tech +23.5

Skip Holtz is one of the most underrated college football head coaches in the country.  He hasn't had a losing season here since his first year in 2013.  He rarely has many returning starters as he tends to find some gems in the transfer portal.  He has had 15 or fewer returning starters in all eight seasons in Ruston and 13 or fewer in seven of them.

Now Holtz welcomes back 17 starters from a team that was ravaged by COVID last year.  They opened 5-3 last year including an upset of UAB before a their depleted team lost their final two games.  They had a patchwork offensive line and it just wasn't pretty down the stretch for them with games cancelled due to COVID.

10 starters are back on defense on what should be one of the most improved units in the country.  Remember, LA Tech allowed 21.8 PPG, 23.0 PPG and 25.4 PPG their previous three seasons before giving up 34.7 PPG last year with just one returning starter on D.  They only had 6 returning starters in all last year.  They get DE Willie Baker back after sitting out last year and he is probably their best player defensively.

Offensively, the Bulldogs should get back to the high-powered offenses of the past.  They averaged at least 30 PPG in five of their previous six seasons before falling to 26.7 PPG last year.  They have seven returning starters on offense and add in WVU transfer Austin Kendall at quarterback, who is getting the start for the opener.

Kendall backed up two straight Heisman trophy winners at Oklahoma in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray.  He was the starter for WVU in 2019 with a terrible cast around him and a first-year head coach.  Kendall and has thrown for 2,418 yards with 17 TD's and 10 INT's in his collegiate career.  He sat behind Jarrett Doege last year, but replaced him in the second half of WVU's bowl game to lead a comeback win over Army and threw for 121 yards and two touchdowns.  That performance will have him coming into 2021 with a ton of confidence.

I'm way down on Mississippi State this year.  The Bulldogs went 4-7 in Mike Leach's first season with their only win against a team with a winning record coming against Tulsa in a 2-point win in the bowl game.  But they were outgained by 213 yards by Tulsa in that bowl game and it was a fluke win.   They didn't win any games by more than 19 points last year.

Asking Mississippi State to beat LA Tech by 24-plus points to cover is asking too much.  No question they will be improved in Mike Leach's second season, but they had all season to try and get better last year and it really didn't happen.  And they had 20 players hit the transfer portal in the offseason as many guys did not like Leach's 'my way or the highway' approach.

The Air Raid offense can only be better after averaging just 21.4 PPG last year.  But I like the fact that Skip Holtz is familiar with this offense and has all offseason to prepare his team for it.  I think Louisiana Tech will get enough stops in this one, and they'll be able to put up enough points offensively behind Kendall to keep them within this 23.5-point spread for four quarters.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* WVU/Maryland Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on West Virginia -2.5

Neal Brown did big things at Troy before coming here with three straight double-digit win seasons.  It was a rebuilding year in his first season in 2019 with just seven returning starters.  But he brought back 14 starters last year and the Mountaineers were much better, going 6-4 in his second season.  The 3rd season is when head coaches usually make their biggest leaps, and that should be the case with the Mountaineers in 2020.

West Virginia returns 17 starters.  Eight are back from one of the best defenses in the country that allowed just 20.5 points and 291 yards per game last season.  Nine starters are back on offense from a unit that put up 413 yards per game last year.  So they outgained their opponents by 122 yards per game last year and were even better than their 6-4 record would indicate.

I think Taulia Tagovailoa being the brother of Miami Dolphins QB Tua has Maryland overhyped.  He was not very good as a freshman with a 7-to-7 TD/INT ratio.  He does have some good receivers to throw to, but I just think the Terrapins are a flashy offensive team that everyone likes.

The problem with the Terrapins is the defense, which gave up 32.0 points and 430 yards per game last season.  They could not stop the run as they gave up 230 rushing yards per game.  They are starting five underclassmen on the offensive line, so they are very weak in the trenches on both sides of the ball.  WVU will have the advantage at the point of attack on both sides, which is a big reason I like them to win and cover here.

Maryland hasn't had a winning record since 2014 and just can't be trusted.  The Terrapins are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  The Mountaineers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine September games.  West Virginia is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Mountaineers are 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings with all nine wins coming by 3 points or more and seven wins by double-digits.  Take West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Fresno State +20.5

I like Fresno State head coach Kalen DeBoer, who took over for Jeff Tedford last year after serving as his offensive coordinator previously.  It didn't go great in Year 1 but they did go 3-3 and will make a huge leap in Year 2.  DeBoer welcomes back 19 starters, a potent offense and an improved defense.

QB Jake Haener is back after completing 64.7% of his passes for 2,021 yards with a 14-to-5 TD/INT ratio in just six games last year.  Ronnie Rivers rushed for 507 yards and 7 TD in five games and made first-team All-Mountain West.  All of his top receivers are back as nine starters return in all on offense.

Where the Bulldogs will be most improved is on defense, where they return 10 starters and each of their top 12 tacklers.  That showed in their opener as they beat Connecticut 45-0 and held the Huskies to just 107 total yards.  And I like the fact that they have a game under their belt already, which should have them being the sharper team here against Oregon early on.

It's generally a good idea to fade Pac-12 teams, and I have no problem doing just that in the right spots.  I think Oregon is being overvalued here in the early going after winning the Pac-12 last year.  But keep in mind they didn't win a single game last year by more than 21 points and found themselves in dog fights each week.

Oregon does have 16 returning starters, including nine on offense and will be good offensively.  But they do lose QB Tyler Shough to the transfer portal, and former Boston College QB Anthony Brown is almost certainly a downgrade.  More concerning is an Oregon defense that brings back just six starters from a unit that allowed 28.3 points and 406 yards per game last year.

Injuries are showing up for Oregon defensively already, too, so Fresno State should be able to match them score for score here.  The secondary injuries are concerning as two projected starters in CB DJ James and S Jamal Hill are both out due to suspension.  The Bulldogs will be able to dice them up through the air, so they'll never be out of it.

Fresno State is 35-17-2 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  Fresno State is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Ducks are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games.  Take Fresno State Saturday.

20* UNC/Virginia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina -5.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are going to be one of the best teams in the country this season.  This is Mack Brown's third season here and he has brought in some tremendous recruiting classes each year.  The fruits of his labor should pay off in a big way this season as his team is an ACC and National Title contender.

The Tar Heels went 8-4 last season and had Top 5 Texas A&M on the ropes in their bowl game despite missing several of their best players who sat out to get ready for the NFL Draft.  Now They bring back 18 starters and only lose a couple of those players that sat out at the skill positions.  Sam Howell is one of the best QB's in the country and will be working behind a veteran offensive line, so they will be fine offensively.

What has me really excited about this team is the improvements they should make defensively.  After giving up 29.4 points per game last year, the Tar Heels welcome back 10 starters on defense and this should be their best stop unit in at least a decade.  Many times their offense was asked to win shootouts last season, but that won't be the case nearly as much in 2021.

I'm just not a huge fan of Justin Fuente, and it's hard to trust the Hokies now that legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster has departed.  We saw what happened to the Hokies in their first season without him last year.  Despite having 10 returning starters on D, Virginia Tech allowed 32.1 points and 447 yards per game.  They gave up 56 points to North Carolina in a loss to them last year.

Offensively, the Hokies lost QB Hendon Hooker to transfer.  He was a great player for them and finished with 620 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns on the ground alone last year, so he will be missed.  They also lose leading rusher Khalil Herbert, who ran for 1,182 yards and 8 touchdowns at 7.7 yards per carry.  Their 15 returning starters is actually among the fewest in the ACC.  Fuente is coming off a 5-6 season and this team is just on the decline.  Bet North Carolina Friday.

20* Ohio State/Minnesota Big Ten No-Brainer on UNDER 63.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes lose a ton of talent on offense this year.  They lost QB Justin Fields and RB Trey Sermon.  They won't be as good as they were offensively the past couple seasons under Fields.  It will take them some time to hit on all cylinders, especially in Week 1.

Ohio State's defense slipped last year and should be improved.  They gave up just 98 rushing yards per game last year but 304 passing.  Their secondary will be one of the most improved in the entire country, and the defensive line is as talented as any in the land.

Minnesota went from giving up 22.5 points per game in 2019 to 30.1 points per game last year.  But they had just four starters back on defense last year and were inexperienced.  Now the Gophers return 10 starters on defense and will be one of the most improved units in the country.

Minnesota wants to slow this game down and run the football to try and keep it competitive.  They have averaged at least 171 rushing yards per game in all four seasons under PJ Fleck, so running the ball has been a priority.  I expect Ohio State to rely on the run as well to try and ease freshman QB CJ Stroud into the season.  

Defenses are usually ahead of the offenses in Week 1 of the season.  That will be the case for both of these teams in 2021 with what they have returning on D.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Hawaii/UCLA College Football Season Opener on UNDER 68

There's not a lot I like in Week 0 college football.  But this play on the UNDER definitely stood out and is worth a bet.  I like to bet UNDERS early in the season because defenses tend to be ahead of offenses.  And I think that will be the case in this game between UCLA and Hawaii.

UCLA should have its best defense of the Chip Kelly era.  His defense improved greatly last season from allowing 34.8 points and 456 yards per game in 2019 to 30.7 points and 410 yards per game in 2020.  And after having just six starters back on defense last year, UCLA welcomes back 10 starters on D in 2021 and should be dominant on this side of the ball.

Offensively, UCLA clearly relies on running the football.  They averaged 231 rushing yards per game last season compared to 224 passing.  That will keep the clock moving and help us cash this UNDER.  Also, it's worth noting UCLA has LSU on deck next week, so if the Bruins get a big lead they will be looking to milk the clock late.  Considering the Bruins are 18-point favorites, they should have a big lead late.

Todd Graham did a good job in his first season in getting Hawaii to 5-4.  They didn't do it with offense as they averaged just 26.2 points per game.  They did it with defense in giving up just 27.6 points per game, the fewest that Hawaii has allowed since 2014.  Now the Rainbow Warriors return all 11 starters on defense and should be even better on that side of the ball.

Offensively, the Warriors also like to run the football as they averaged 152 yards per game on the ground last season and 384 yards per game total.  They have a running QB in Chevan Cordeiro, who led the team in rushing last season.  Well UCLA was stingy against the run last year, yielding 136 yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  Add it all up and we have a solid play on the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Chiefs/Bucs Super Bowl 55 No-Brainer on Tampa Bay +3

The Tampa Bay Bucs pretty much have every advantage in this game outside of the quarterback position.  And while Patrick Mahomes can make up for a lot of other problems, I don't think he'll be able to overcome them in the Super Bowl and get the Chiefs to cover this 3-point spread.

You could also argue that the Bucs have the better offense right now.  Since their bye week, the Bucs have the top scoring offense in the NFL at 34 points per game.  The Chiefs are scoring 26 points per game during that same time frame.  That's an 8-point margin in favor of the Bucs.  It has been especially impressive watching the Bucs top 30 points in all three of their playoff games against very good defenses in Washington, New Orleans and Green Bay.

On the other side of the ball, the Bucs have the better defense.  They rank 6th according to football outsiders while the Chiefs rank 18th.  Just from a raw numbers standpoint, the Bucs give up 22.3 points, 330.7 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  The Chiefs allow 22.4 points, 355.8 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

The matchup here that I think is going to make the biggest difference in the game is Tampa Bay's pass rush against Kansas City's banged-up offensive line.  The Chiefs are now without their two starting tackls in Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, plus C Kilgore is questionable.  The Bucs have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL led by DE's Pierre-Paul and Barrett.  The Bucs sacked Aaron Rodgers five times in the NFC Championship Game, and they will certainly be able to get after Mahomes too.

The injury news is much better for the Bucs.  They are expected to have WR Antonio Brown, S Antoine Winfield Jr., LB Lavonte David and TE Cameron Brate available for this game as they are all listed as probable.  S Jordan Whitehead is more on the questionable side, but having Winfield Jr. back is going to be huge.  And keep in mind this is the first time a team has ever played at home for the Super Bowl, so there has to be some home-field advantage for the Bucs with the familiarity plus 22,000 fans in attendance.

The Bucs are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS since their bye week, which came late in the season.  As stated before, they have been a different team since.  So you can almost throw out that first meeting with the Chiefs in which the Bucs lost 24-27.  They played about as poorly as they possibly could and still only lost by 3 points.  They will have an answer for Mahomes and company this time around, especially with the advantages they have up front on defense against this Chiefs offensive line.

Tampa Bay is 8-1 ATS when the total is 49.5 or higher this season.  So when a shootout is expected, they have been up to the task.  The Bucs are 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 6 or more yards per play this season.  Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall with only one win by more than 6 points during this stretch.  Bet the Bucs in Super Bowl 55 Sunday.

Jack's Top 10 Super Bowl Prop Bets:

1. 2nd half more points than 1st half (-160)

2. Chiefs Under 3.5 Punts (-160)

3. Under 80.5 Combined Penalty Yards (+120)

4. Bucs Over 7.5 Players w/ Reception (-165)

5. No Score in the 1st 5:30 (-125)

6. Opening Kickoff Touchback (No, +200)

7. Chiefs to Commit Most Accepted Penalties (-140)

8. Bucs Over 1.5 Sacks (-215)

9. Fournette O 25.5 Receiving Yards (+105)

10. Watkins O 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

20* Bills/Chiefs AFC Championship No-Brainer on Buffalo +3.5

Now that the line has finally gotten to +3.5 it's time to pull the trigger on the Buffalo Bills.  I've been waiting patiently for them to announce that Patrick Mahomes would be playing to get the Bills at a better number.  And now it's time to pounce on a Bills team that is playing as well as anyone in the NFL over the last three months, and certainly playing better than the Chiefs right now.

The Bills are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming 30-32 at Arizona on a hail mary on the last play of the game.  So, they've gone 11 straight games without losing by more than this spread, making for an 11-0 system backing the Bills here.  They are 8-0 SU in their last eight games overall with those eight wins coming by an average of 17.0 points per game.

This Buffalo offense is firing on all cylinders behind the play of Josh Allen.  They are averaging 34.7 points per game in their last 10 games.  Allen is more than capable of matching Mahomes and the Chiefs score for score.  But what is getting overlooked here is just how much better this Buffalo defense has played down the stretch, and that is the X-factor.  They are allowing just 17.1 points per game in their last eight games overall.  They just held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 3 points last week, which is no small feat.

The Kansas City Chiefs are just barely surviving, but their luck runs out here.  The Chiefs haven't won any of their last nine games by more than 6 points.  You have to go all the way back to November 1st against the Jets to find the last time they covered a spread.  They are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They've just been very fortunate in close games with each of their last eight wins coming by 6 points or less.

Now the Chiefs are dealing with an injury to their best player in Mahomes, and I'm not even talking about the concussion he sustained against the Browns last week.  It's the foot injury that clearly hampered him the rest of the game after it happened, and it was the start of the Browns comeback.  When Mahomes doesn't have his mobility, he's much easier to defend.  And I see that being the case here for this rapidly improving Bills defense.

A big reason the Chiefs have struggled to put teams away is because they have been one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL.  They are fine moving the ball between the 20's, but terrible at turning it into touchdowns.  And the Bills have what it takes to buckle down and hold them to field goals when they do get in the red zone.  Conversely, the Chiefs are terrible in the red zone defensively, and Josh Allen has been great at getting touchdowns and not turning the ball over when he gets inside the 20.

The Bills are 7-2 SU against teams with winning records this season.  Yes, one of those losses came to the Chiefs 17-26 on October 19th, but that was a terrible spot for the Bills.  They were on just five days' rest as the game had to be rescheduled due to COVID.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs were on seven days' rest in that contest.  It was a huge advantage for the Chiefs.  The Bills have been a different team since in winning 10 of their last 11 games with their only loss by 2 points.

Now the Bills are in the favorable situation here having played on Saturday while the Chiefs played on Sunday last week.  The Bills are the team with the extra day of rest, and they got to watch the Chiefs play on Sunday.  That's a nice rest and preparation advantage for the red hot road team here.

The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Chiefs are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.  The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games on grass.  These four trends combine for a 30-1 system backing Buffalo.  The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Kansas City.  Take the Bills Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -3

The Green Bay Packers fought hard to get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs down the stretch.  They knew that their four previous NFC Championship Game were all on the road, which is a big reason they lost them.  But they handled their business down the stretch to get this game at home, and now the fruits of their labor will pay off as they'll be going to the Super Bowl after a win and cover against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Nobody has played better than the Packers down the stretch.  They are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven victories coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 14.9 points per game.  That includes their 32-18 win over the Rams last week in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score.  The Packers outgained the Rams 484 to 244 in that game, or by 240 total yards.

Many came into that game believing the Rams had the best defense in the NFL.  Well, Aaron Rodgers and company did whatever they wanted in that game.  They rushed for 188 yards and passes for 296 more.  And getting the ground game going has been a big key to Green Bay's success down the stretch.  They have quietly rushed for 120 or more yards in six of their last seven games.  They also have one of the best defenses they've had in years, holding opponents to 22.8 points, 328.8 yards and 217 passing yards per game this season.

This will be the 3rd straight road game for the Bucs in the playoffs, which is always a tough situation.  And it's a warm weather team here traveling up north for a game in the cold.  Temperatures will be in the 20s on Sunday in Green Bay with winds around 10 MPH.  I'm sure Tom Brady doesn't even like the cold any more after moving to Tampa Bay.  And his arm strength isn't near what it used to be.  The Packers have a huge edge at QB in this one.

I was on the Bucs last week against the Saints, but their 30-20 win was misleading.  The Saints gave that game away with four turnovers.  Brady did not look good at all as he went just 18-of-33 passing for 199 yards in the win.  He will need to be much better if he wants any chance of competing with Rodgers and this high-powered Green Bay offense.  And I just love this underrated Green Bay secondary, which matches up very well with these Tampa Bay receivers.  There's a good chance the Bucs will be without Antonio Brown as well.

Green Bay is 75-48 ATS in its last 123 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less.  The Packers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs. teams that outscore opponents by 6-plus points per game.  The Packers are 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per game.  Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Green Bay gets and extra day of rest here after playing on Saturday while Tampa Bay played on Sunday night.  They got to sit around and watch the Bucs play, which is a nice advantage.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs +3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have now reeled off five straight victories and their offense is playing at a level as good as anyone that's left in the playoffs.  They are scoring 35.8 points per game during this five-game winning streak.

I was really impressed with what they did against Washington's defense last game.  They put up 507 total yards on a Washington defense that is one of the best in the NFL, especially up front.  If they can do that against Washington, they can certainly penetrate this overrated New Orleans defense.

The Bucs are also playing pretty well defensively in giving up 329.9 yards per game on the season.  And now they will get back their best defender in LB Devin White, who leads the team with 140 tackles, 9 sacks and 18 tackles for loss.  White had to sit out the Washington game, which is a big reason they actually somewhat struggled to stop Taylor Heineke and company.  They could also get back their best run stuffer in DT Jeremiah Ledbetter from a calf injury.  RB Ronald Jones could return after missing last week as well.

The Saints had some new injuries pop up in their win over the lowly Bears last week.  RB Latavius Murray, QB Taysom Hill and CB Patrick Robinson all missed practice for a second straight day on Thursday.  DE Trey Hendrickson, LT Terron Armstead and TE Jared Cook were all limited in practice on Thursday as well.

No question the Bucs are going to be the more motivated team here after losing the first two meetings of the season with the Saints, including their fluky 38-3 loss last time.  I think we see an inspired effort from them similar to the one we saw from the Ravens last week, who were playing with identical double-revenge after losing to the Titans in the playoffs last year and in their first meeting this season.

New Orleans is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 playoff home games.  The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Only one of the Saints' last nine games has come against a team with a winning record, and that was their home loss to the Chiefs in which they were outgained by 126 yards and were blown out worse than the final score showed.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

15* Ravens/Bills AFC BAILOUT on Buffalo ML -139

I'm going to take the points out of play here and back the Buffalo Bills on the Money Line Saturday night.  The Bills are playing as well as anyone in the playoffs right now.  They are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming on the hail mary by Arizona.  They are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, and they have won seven straight SU with six of those coming by double-digits.

Josh Allen had an MVP-caliber season.  He has guided the Bills to an average of 36.7 PPG in their last nine games overall as this offense is humming as well as any offense in the NFL right now.  And the Bills have played much better defensively down the stretch to live up to their potential.  They are giving up just 19.1 points per game in their last seven games overall.

Allen and the offense will get theirs against the Ravens, and it's going to come down to how well the Bills stop the run.  They played soft against the run against the Colts last week because they were up 14 in the second half and defending the pass.  They have allowed 86 or fewer rushing yards in four of their last seven games overall.  And they have the speed at linebacker to contain Lamar Jackson.

This is a total different matchup here as the Bills can stack eight in the box to stop the run.  Jackson can't beat them with his arm, and that's the knock on him.  The Ravens are averaging just 155.9 passing yards per game in their last eight games.  They have been held below 200 passing yards in 13 of their 17 games this season.  So with Buffalo knowing it needs to stop the run to win this game, I think defensive minded head coach Sean McDermott comes up with the proper game plan to do just that.  And you know if Buffalo gets ahead big the Ravens don't have the ability to come back.

Lamar Jackson has never played in snow and the conditions could really hurt him.  He struggles to take care of the football as it is with terrible ball security.  And temperatures are going to be in the 20's Saturday night in Buffalo with a 40% chance of snow and winds from 10-15 MPH.  Allen is obviously used to playing in tough conditions dating back to his time at Wyoming.  That's a huge advantage for the Bills in this one.

Baltimore is just 3-4 SU against teams with winning records this season.  Buffalo is 6-2 SU against teams with winning records.  The Bills are 7-1 ATS in all games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Buffalo being 10-1 SU in its last 11 games overall applies here since we just need them to win straight up.  Roll with the Bills on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Rams/Packers NFC No-Brainer on Green Bay -6.5

The Green Bay Packers fought hard to get the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the first round.  And now they are going to pay it off with a dominant win over the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round Saturday.

The Packers have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall with all six wins coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 15.0 points per game.  That includes their 40-14 home win over the Titans in the snow.  And it is going to be cold, windy and there is currently a 40% chance of snow.

That's bad news for a West Coast team in the Rams that is used to playing in perfect conditions.  We've seen Jared Goff struggle in the past in cold weather in Chicago.  And Goff is far from 100% right now.  The only reason he played last week against Seattle was because John Wolford got hurt.  He came in and didn't have much on his throws as he is dealing with a broken thumb still.  And Wofford has already been ruled out, leaving it all on Goff.

Goff completed just 9-of-19 passes against the Seahawks last week.  And he isn't the only injury concern here.  The Rams' best defender in Aaron Donald suffered a rib injury that forced him out of action in the second half against Seattle.  He will play, but he won't be is usual dominant self.  WR Cooper Kupp (knee) was held out of practice Thursday and is questionable.  LB Terrell Lewis (ankle) has been ruled out.

With Goff hobbled and Kupp not himself, the Rams are going to struggled to keep up with the Packers on the scoreboard.  Aaron Rodgers is the MVP of the league with 70.7% completions, 4,299 yards and a 48-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He and Devante Adams have hooked up 115 times for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns.  Aaron Jones quietly has rushed for 1,104 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 5.5 per carry.  This is a Packers offense that is averaging 31.8 points per game on the season.

The Rams have really been held in check offensively down the stretch.  The 30 points they scored on Seattle was fluky as they did it on just 333 total yards and an average of 4.9 yards per play.  They were aided by a pick-6 early in that game.  They are averaging just 20.2 points, 324.2 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in their last five games overall.  That's not going to get it done against an improved Packers defense that allows just 334.1 yards per game this season.

The Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, winning five times by 10 points or more.  The favorite is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  This trend continues as the rested Packers put it on the Rams for four quarters, and Jared Goff and company have no answer.  Take the Packers Saturday.

20* Ohio State/Alabama National Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 75

This total is being inflated due to Alabama's offensive numbers on the season and Ohio State's offensive barrage against Clemson that came out of nowhere.  Justin Fields won't be nearly as effective against a much better defense here in Alabama.

Fields is dealing with a rib injury that held him out of practice most the week.  Ohio State has yet to reveal the severity of it, but it's not good.  And he's not about to do what he did against Clemson to Alabama.  The Tigers were cheating up to stop the run all game, allowing Fields to go over the top time after time.  Alabama will make the proper adjustment and make Ohio State drive the length of the field to score.

This is an Alabama defense that is giving up just 19.0 points per game this season.  Ohio State also has a great defense, allowing just 22.0 points per game.  The Buckeyes held Trevor Lawrence and Clemson's high-powered attack to just 28 points.  What made that even more impressive was Clemson was in the hurry up most of the 2nd half trying to erase a big deficit.

The extra preparation time in between games favors the UNDER as well.  The Buckeyes and Crimson Tide have both had 10 days to get ready for this game.  That will favor the defenses more than the offenses in this one.  And keep in mind if Alabama gets up they are more than happy with just sitting on the ball in the 2nd half.  That was the case against Notre Dame in their 31-14 victory.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 63 or higher (Ohio State) - after beating the spread by 35 points or more in their last three games against an opponent that beat the spread by 49 or or more points in their last seven games are 26-4 (86.7%) over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bears +10.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bears off their 16-35 loss to the Packers last week.  They were in that game in the 2nd half down only 5 before the Packers took over late.  But it was a much closer game than the final score would indicate.  The Bears actually outgained the Packers by 40 yards and held them to 316 total yards.

This Chicago offense has really come to life behind Mitch Trubisky down the stretch.  They are averaging 30.2 points and 382.2 yards per game in their last six games overall, which have all come with Trubisky under center.  Those are the kind of numbers that are going to make it tough for the Saints to put them away.  And the Bears obviously have one of the better defenses in the NFL, giving up 344.1 yards per game on the season.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Saints, who are overvalued off back-to-back blowout wins over the Vikings 52-33 and Panthers 33-7.  The Panthers had about five red zone trips end in zero points and turned the ball over five times.  That was a hugely misleading final score, and it has provided us with some serious line value here on the Bears.

Consider that the Bears were only 4.5-point underdogs to the Packers last week and now they are 10.5-point underdogs to the Saints.  That's a 6-point adjustment.  Keep in mind the Packers beat the Saints earlier this season too, and the Bears have been competitive in every game outside of their two matchups with the Packers.  They only have three losses by double-digits all season, and two were against the Packers.  The other was against the Rams by 14, who were coming off a bye week.

Also consider that the Bears were 5-point underdogs to the Saints in their first meeting this season.  They only lost that game 23-26 in overtime.  So this is also a 5.5-point adjustment off that first meeting, which saw the Bears hang tough for four quarters and overtime, and I think they can hang tough again.  Keep in mind that was Nick Foles at QB too for the Bears in that first meeting, and Trubisky is the better of the two quarterbacks, which has been proven here down the stretch.

The Saints have been choke artists in the playoffs in recent years.  New Orleans is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 playoff home games, including 0-4 ATS in its last four playoff home games.  They were upset by both the Rams and Vikings the last two seasons at home in the playoffs.  Underdogs are 11-1 ATS in the 12 wild card games over the last three seasons.  Teams entering the playoffs with an 8-8 record or worse are 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven instances in the Wild Card Round.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10.5 points (New Orleans) - off a road win over a division rival, a top team winning 75% or more of their games in the second half of the season are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with the Bears Sunday.

25* NFL Wild Card GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington +8

The Washington Football Team gets overlooked because they have a mediocre offense.  But they have a championship level defense, and that fact alone gives them a chance to pull the upset here against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round.  At the very least they should stay within this inflated 8-point spread.

Washington has allowed 20 points or fewer in seven straight games coming in.  That's hard to do in today's NFL, and it just goes to show how dominant their defense has really been.  They have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL, and the way to get to Tom Brady is with pressure, especially pressure up the middle.  Washington can do just that.

Tom Brady has been awful in primetime games this year.  He is 0-4 ATS in primetime games with five touchdowns and five interceptions.  He has an 8:30 bed time, which may have something to do with it.  And the Bucs come in overvalued on a 4-game winning streak, but all four wins came against teams with losing records.  Tampa went 1-5 SU against teams with records of .500 or better this season.  The temps will be in the 30s at game time so this is also Brady having to go outdoors in the cold weather, something you don't want from aging quarterbacks.

Washington may be a losing team at 7-9, but they have been a different team down the stretch and with Alex Smith under center.  They have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Their only two losses came with Dwayne Haskins as their starter.  They are 5-0 SU in games that Smith has started to improve to 11-5 with Smith compared to 6-26 with all other starting QB's since he arrived in Washington.

The last seven teams that entered the playoffs with a record of 8-8 or worse have gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS.  That includes outright upsets by the two teams that had 7-9 records.  These teams consistently come in undervalued due to their record.  But as stated before, Washington has been a much better team down the stretch than its record would suggest.

Tampa Bay has a huge loss on the defensive side of the ball that is getting overlooked.  LB Devin White, the teams's leading tackler with 140 tackles, 9 sacks and 18 tackles for loss, will be out of this game due to COVID-19.  I think his loss is a huge one, and it will allow Antonio Gibson to run the ball more effectively and take some pressure off of Smith.

Underdogs are 11-1 ATS in 12 Wild Card games over the last three seasons.  Washington is 6-0 ATS off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win.  Bet Washington Saturday.

20* Colts/Bills AFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Buffalo -6

Nobody is playing better than the Buffalo Bills coming into the playoffs.  The Bills would be on a 10-game winning streak if not for the fluke Hail Mary by Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals.  But that loss may have been a blessing in disguise because the Bills have been dominant ever since.

Indeed, the Bills have won six straight games all by double-digits.  They are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  And this team continues to be undervalued week after week.  They are lighting up the scoreboard with 37.9 points per game in their last eight games.  Their defense is playing up to the level that it did last season.  They are giving up just 18.3 points per game in their last six games.

Josh Allen is by far the superior quarterback in this matchup.  I don't trust Philip Rivers to be able to match him score for score.  Rivers is used to warm weather after playing in San Diego and also playing in a dome in Indianapolis.  He will be out of his element here.  Temperatures in Buffalo will be in the 20s around kickoff.  I always like fading older quarterbacks with questionable arm strength like Rivers outdoors in the playoffs.  We saw the Colts struggle outdoors early this season in elements when they lost 23-32 at Cleveland.  They also lost outdoors at Pittsburgh in Week 16.

The Colts have played the single-easiest schedule int he entire NFL this season.  They played the 32nd-ranked schedule.  Buffalo played the 13th-toughest schedule.  So that disparity in SOS definitely favors the Bills.  The Colts went 2-4 against teams with winning records this season, while the Bills went 5-2 against teams with winning records, including 3-0 in their last three with all three wins by double-digits over Seattle by 10, Pittsburgh by 11 and Miami by 30.

And keep in mind the Bills rested their starters in the 2nd half of that 56-26 win over Miami last week.  They will now be the fresher team here, which is a big factor considering this is the first game of the Wild Card round with kickoff set for 1:00 EST Saturday afternoon.  The Colts found themselves in a dog fight with the Jaguars last week.  They led 20-14 late in the fourth quarter with the Jaguars having the ball around the 50-yard line with a chance to take the lead.

The Bills are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Colts are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game.  Indianapolis is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games as an underdog.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Buffalo.  Take the Bills Saturday.

20* Washington/Eagles NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington -1

Washington wins the NFC East with a win Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles.  It's safe to say they'll be max motivated.  I don't think you can say the same for the Eagles, who were just eliminated from playoff contention with their 17-37 loss at Dallas last week.  I always like fading teams the week after they have been eliminated from the playoffs.

The Eagles have now lost six of their last even games overall.  Their injury situation is awful.  They led 14-3 at Dallas las week before Fletcher Cox went out with a stinger.  Dallas outscored them 34-3 the rest of the way.  It's unlikely that Cox will be back this week, and he's their most important player on defense, especially when it comes to stopping the run and getting after the passer.

The Eagles are also missing a handful of players in the secondary.  The Cardinals and Cowboys have both torched their defense the last two weeks.  The Cardinals had 526 yards against them, while the Cowboys put up 513 yards against them.  The talent level they are putting on the field might be the worst in the NFL right now on the defensive side of the ball.

Washington is likely to get Alex Smith back at quarterback this season.  Washington is 10-5 with Smith as a starter, and 6-26 with everyone else over the last few seasons.  I don't think they would have let Dwayne Haskins go if they didn't know Smith would return this week.  There's a good chance they get back their best receiver in Terry McClaurin from injury this week as well.  And RB Antonio Gibson returned last week and is back to full strength.  So the matchup is a good one for this Washington offense.

But it's the Washington defense that has me excited to back them again this week.  They have held six straight opponents to 20 points or fewer.  No defense is playing better than theirs right now.  They give up just 21.0 points per game this season.  They held the Eagles to just 17 points and 26 total yards in their first meeting this season in their 27-17 victory.  They also forced three turnovers, and Jalen Hurts had three turnovers against the Cowboys last week.  Chase Allen and company will make life difficult on the rookie Hurts in this one.  And it helps that Washington now has some game film on him after starting the last three weeks.

Washington is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  The only two games they lost came with Haskins as a starter, and they were competitive in both with a 5-point loss to Seattle and a 7-point loss to Carolina.  They upset the Cowboys, Steelers and 49ers with Smith at QB and I was on them in all three games.  Even Taylor Heineke gave them a spark when he replaced Haskins last week, and they are good enough to win with him even if Smith can't go.  I recommend betting this game early because when they announce Smith as a starter I expect this line to go to -3.

Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining 350 or more total yards last game.  Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. NFC East opponents.  The Eagles are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.  Take Washington Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Carolina Panthers +7

The New Orleans Saints are still alive for the No. 1 seed, but they would need a lot to go right and they know it.  They'd need the Packers to lose to the Bears and the Seahawks to beat the 49ers, which would put them in a 3-way tie with both.  They would win the tiebreaker based on their record against NFC teams in that scenario.  

It's just unlikely to happen, and I think with the Saints knowing it, don't be surprised if they aren't 100% 'all in' for this Week 17 game.  They would be better off resting their guys and getting ready for the playoffs.  I think this line is adjusted too much in the Saints' favor because technically they still have something to play for, but the reality is that they aren't likely to improve their seeding.

What we do know is that the Carolina Panthers show up every week for head coach Matt Rhule.  Washington had a chance to clinch the NFC East last week, and Carolina played spoiler in a 20-13 victory.  And now the Panthers have a shot to play spoiler here against a hated division rival and will be 'all in' for their final game of the 2020-21 season.

It's also true that Carolina is much better than is 5-10 record would indicate.  Indeed, eight of those 10 losses came by one score.  The only two blowout losses came in their two meetings with Tampa Bay.  They only lost 24-27 to the Saints in their first meeting this season, so they already proved they could play with them.

New Orleans is getting too much respect off its 52-33 win over a Vikings team that appeared to quit last week, at least defensively.  The Panthers will offer a lot more resistance here.  The Panthers held the Packers to 24 points and 291 total yards two weeks ago and should have won that game outright.  And last week they held Washington to 13 points and forced four turnovers.

Teddy 'Covers' Bridgewater just keeps getting the money.  He is 36-13 ATS in his career as a starter, including 24-5 ATS as an underdog.  And the Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs this season.  This just goes to show that they come to play every week under Rhule, and that they have lost so many close games this season that they are consistently undervalued.

Injuries are starting to pile up for the Saints.  They are without three key receivers in Michael Thomas, Deonte Harris and Tre'quan Smith.  They just lost starting LB Kwon Alexander to a season-ending injury last week.  He was starting to play well after getting claimed from the 49ers.  Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (66 tackles, 1 INT) will be out with COVID.  Fellow S Marcus Williams (59 tackles, 3 INT), DE Trey Hendrickson (12.5 sacks) CB Patrick Robinson (2 INT) and TE Josh Hill are all questionable.

New Orleans is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after outrushing its last opponents by 150 or more yards.  Carolina is 6-0 ATS vs. teams that average 29 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with only one loss by more than 5 points in those six meetings.  The underdog is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Falcons +7.5

The Atlanta Falcons show up week in and week out since Raheem Morris took over.  And they'll certainly show up in Week 17 against a division rival in the Tampa Bay Bucs.  They want revenge after blowing a 24-7 lead to the Bucs in their first meeting this season just two weeks ago.  And they don't have to wait long to get it.

While the Falcons have lost four straight, all four losses were by 5 points or fewer, and three were to playoff teams.  They only lost 16-21 to the Saints and had a chance to win the game on their final drive.  They lost 17-20 to the Chargers.  They lost 27-31 to the Bucs.  And they only lost 14-17 to the Chiefs last week as double-digit underdogs.  They had a chance to win the game or send it to overtime late, but their kicker missed the game-tying field goal.

What makes the Falcons so intriguing all of a sudden is that they have played some tremendous defense down the stretch under Morris, who is their defensive coordinator.  They have allowed 21 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall.  And holding the Chiefs to just 17 points just goes to show how good this defense is playing right now.

The Bucs are overvalued off their 47-7 win over a Detroit Lions team that has quit and is banged up.  Now they go from being 6-point favorites over the Falcons two weeks ago to 7.5-point favorites over them this week.  That adjustment is not warranted considering the Falcons played them tough in that first meeting and only lost by 4 points.

And while the Falcons are very healthy right now, the Bucs are going to be without several key players in their defensive front seven.  They will be without LB Shaquil Barrett, LB Devin White, DL Steve McClendon and DT Jeremiah Ledbetter.  And I think this line is higher than it should be because Bruce Arians has come out publicly and said the Bucs are going to try and win and not rest starters.  That has given us extra line value here.  Don't be surprised if the Bucs do pull some starters in the second half of this one.

The Bucs are just 1-3 SU in their last four home games with their only win coming against the Vikings in a game that was closer than the 26-14 score would indicate.  The Vikings left 10 points on the board with three missed field goals and a missed extra point.  The Vikings outgained the Bucs in that contest as well.

The Falcons have lost just once by more than 7 points in their last 11 games overall.  That was a 9-24 loss to the Saints in which they led 9-3 just before halftime before getting shut out the rest of the way.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the Falcons pertaining to this 7.5-point spread.  Getting points with the Falcons has been a very profitable move.  Atlanta is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog.  Tampa Bay is 8-21-1 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite.  Roll with the Falcons Sunday.

20* UNC/Texas A&M Orange Bowl BAILOUT on Texas A&M -7

The Texas A&M Aggies felt snubbed that they didn't get into the four-team playoff.  Now they are about to take out their frustration on North Carolina here in the Orange Bowl.  And Jimbo Fisher always takes a workmanlike approach to these games and will have his team ready to go.

"You get in, you get out, and you've got to move on," Fisher said. "you got to the future, and listen, we get an opportunity to play in the Orange Bowl, like I said, one of the great bowl games in the history of this sport."

Texas A&M went 8-1 this season with its only loss coming to Alabama.  The Aggies were led by a dominant defense that gave up just 21.1 points and 316.6 yards per game this season.  Their defense will be by far the best unit on the field in this matchup.  And it's by far better than the UNC defense, which allows 28.4 points and 395.8 yards per game.

North Carolina is known for a high-powered offense, putting up great numbers against suspect ACC defenses all season.  But they were upset by both Florida State and Virginia.  And the one defense they faced that was actually pretty good was Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish held them to 17 points and 298 total yards.  This Texas A&M defense is capable of doing the same thing.

While Texas A&M had minimal opt-outs and should have basically their entire roster available, UNC had several key players opt out.  The Tar Heels will be without two 1,000-yard rushers in RB's Javonte Williams and Michael Carter.  They will also be without a 1,000-yard receiver in Dyami Brown.  Plus, the leader of their defense and leading tackler in LB Chazz Surratt (92 tackles) has opted out as well.  With all of this NFL talent out, the Tar Heels will be a shell of their former selves.

Plays on any team (Texas A&M) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (4.8 YPC or more), after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game are 35-9 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Aggies are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.  Texas A&M is 20-9-1 ATS in its last 30 games as a favorite.  The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Take Texas A&M Saturday.

20* Oregon/Iowa State Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Iowa State -3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones have a sour taste in their mouths from losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game.  The Cyclones got blown out by Notre Dame in their bowl game last year and lost a heartbreaker to Washington State the year before.  They won't be lacking any motivation here.  I have no doubt this senior-laden team wants to finish this season with an exclamation point in what has been one of the greatest seasons in program history.

I do question Oregon's motivation coming off a Pac-12 Championship in which they were gifted a spot in the title game due to COVID problems at Washington.  They beat USC 31-24, but that was one of the most misleading finals of the season.

Oregon only managed 243 total yards against USC but forced three turnovers, which was the difference.  The DUcks were upset as 13-point favorites by Oregon State and as 9-point favorites by California in their final two games of the regular season.  So that's basically three striaght games where Oregon has not played well.

The Big 12 looks great in bowl games thus far.  Oklahoma State beat Miami 37-34, Texas beat Colorado 55-23 and Oklahoma beat Florida 55-20.  So we've already seen a Big 12 vs. Pac-12 matchup in Texas' 55-23 win over Colorado.  And that was a Texas team with a ton of opt-outs and a backup QB in the second half.  And Iowa State beat Texas.

Oregon gave up 27.3 points and 409.5 yards per game this season.  Iowa State only gave up 21.8 points and 343.1 yards per game as they had one of the best defenses in the Big 12.  Oregon doesn't trust QB Tyler Shough to unleash him.  Shough only had 91 passing yards against USC in the Pac-12 Championship.

Iowa State trusts Brock Purdy to make all the throws.  He is completing 66.4% of his passes for 2,594 yards with an 18-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season.  He has also rushed for 343 yards and four scores.  And the Cyclones had the leading rusher in the country in Breece Hall, who rushed for 1,436 yards and 19 touchdowns this season to put his name in the Heisman Trophy discussion.

Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games coming in.  The Ducks are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS win.  The Cyclones are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU loss.  Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

25* Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ohio State/Clemson UNDER 68

Clemson and Ohio State are very familiar with one another having played in the playoffs three times since the 2013 season.  That includes Clemson's 29-23 win last year that saw only 52 combined points.  Familiarity favors defense, and I can't believe the books have set this total this high for the Sugar Bowl rematch.

Both teams are elite defensively.  Clemson gives up 17.5 points and 298.5 yards per game this season.  They held Notre Dame to 10 points and 263 total yards in the ACC Championship Game.  And they have allowed just 12.3 points per game in their last three games coming in.

Ohio State gives up 21.0 points and 358.0 yards per game this season.  They have held their last two opponents to 11.0 points per game, including their 22-10 win over Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game.  

And we saw how the Northwestern defense was able to stop Justin Fields.  He went just 12-of-27 passing for 114 yards with two interceptions and zero touchdowns.  Fields is also battling a thumb injury.  The Buckeyes are more of a running team, which is going to favor the UNDER here as they try and milk the clock and limit possessions for Trevor Lawrence.  They average 45 rush attempts per game compared to 27 pass attempts.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Buckeyes last four bowl games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Buckeyes last six games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Buckeyes last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Tigers last five playoff semifinal games.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Tigers last nine bowl games as a favorite.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Army +7

The Army Black Knights have put together another great season under head coach Jeff Monken, who is quickly becoming one of the best coaches in program history.  They sit at 9-2 on the season and will be highly motivated for a victory in the Liberty Bowl to get to 10 wins.

Army went from being a huge snub from a bowl game to finally getting a game against West Virginia, which was announced on December 21st.  Monken fought for a bowl game and got it done for his team.  Now I expect his players to respond in a great way here and make the most of this opportunity.

Give West Virginia credit for accepting this game, but it's not going to go well for them.  The Mountaineers have had just over a week to get ready for the triple-option.  They never see this physical style in the Big 12 and won't be ready for it.  Players hate to face triple-option teams, which is why you see so many Military schools have so much success year after year.

We saw this West Virginia defense get gashed on the ground down the stretch.  They gave up 179 or more rushing yards three times over their final five games, including 236 by Iowa State in their 6-42 loss in the season finale.  And they didn't have to play Oklahoma, so their season-long stats look good, but they are a little skewed to say the least.

Army is going to punch WVU in the mouth for four quarters with a rushing attack that ranked fourth in the nation at 281.3 yards per game.  They had four different players rush for between 401 and 502 yards, so they are a balanced attack that will hit you from everywhere they can on the ground.

This is a great Army defense that is giving up just 14.0 points and 271.1 yards per game as wlell.  West Virginia's weakness is on offense at 26.8 points per game this season.  Their offense really struggled down the stretch against the better competition they faced.  They managed just 14.3 points per game in their final three games and also managed just 13 points against Oklahoma State earlier this season.

West Virginia is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games as a neutral field favorite, including 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less.  The Mountaineers are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 bowl games, including 0-6 ATS in their last six bowl games.  Bet Army in the Liberty Bowl Thursday.

20* Florida/Oklahoma Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Oklahoma -2.5

The Oklahoma Sooners have been one of the best teams in the country since a shocking 1-2 start this season with losses to Kansas State and Iowa State to open Big 12 play.  They have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS since while outscoring the opposition by 23.0 points per game.  They will win their 8th straight here in the Cotton Bowl against Florida.

Oklahoma has familiarity playing inside AT&T Stadium having just beating Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship.  They will not be awe struck one bit, and it's an advantage for them getting to play there again less than two weeks later.  And they will be motivated to knock off an SEC opponent here and put an exclamation point on what has been a tremendous turnaround season.

Oklahoma has another high-powered offense this year averaging 41.8 points per game.  Spencer Rattler came on strong starting with the win over Texas.  He completed 68% of his passes for 2,784 yards with a 25-to-7 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for five scores.  Rattler and this Oklahoma offense should pick apart a Gators defense that ranked 78th national in yards per pass attempt (7.6) and 93rd in passer rating (145.6).

But the key to this Sooners team is that they have the best defense they've had in the Lincoln Riley era.  They give up just 21.9 points and 334.6 yards per game.  They have been tremendous against the run, allowing 92 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.  Coordinator Alex Grinch has built a unit that thrives against fling-it-around schemes like this one run by Florida.

Florida is going to need to be able to run the football considering they will be without their top four receivers in this game.  WR Kedarius Toney (70 receptions, 984 yards, 10 TD), TE Kyle Pitts (43, 770, 12 TD) and WR Trevon Grimes (38, 589, 9 TD) will all be sitting out this game to prepare for the NFL Draft.  Jacob Copeland (23, 435, 3 TD) is also out due to COVID-19.  Even with star QB Kyle Trask at the helm, this offense won't be anywhere close to firing on all cylinders.

I think Oklahoma is happy to be here as they were eliminated from the four-team playoff early in the season and have earned their way to this Cotton Bowl.  I think Florida is not happy to be here as they had an outside shot at the four-team playoff down the stretch after an 8-1 start, but lost their final two games.  They lost as 23-point favorites to LSU and then to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  I always like fading teams after playing Alabama.  They won't be nearly as excited to play Oklahoma as they were Alabama, and that is evident with all these opt-outs.

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Florida) - a good team outscoring opponents by 7-plus points per game, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Gators are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf.  The Sooners are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. SEC opponents.  Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.

20* Colorado/Texas Alamo Bowl BAILOUT on Colorado +8.5

Karl Dorrell's first year at Colorado brought with it Pac-12 Coach of the Year honors.  The Buffaloes were the surprise of the Pac-12 with a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS record with their only loss coming to Utah in the season finale.  And now the Buffaloes are extremely happy to be playing in the Alamo Bowl.

The roles are reversed for Texas this year.  They beat a flat Utah team in the Alamo Bowl that just missed the 4-team playoff after losing in the Pac-12 Championship.  The Longhorns were the team that wanted to be there.  I don't think they will want to be playing in the Alamo Bowl for a second consecutive season after having higher expectations during the regular season of winning a Big 12 title and coming up short.

Now Texas will be without several key players who have opted out, showing they don't care much about winning this game.  They will be without leading receiver Brennan Eagles, left tackle Samuel Cosmi and another starter in senior Derek Kerstetter.  There's also some uncertainty with right guard Denzel Okafor, who could miss the game due to COVID-19 protocols.  The Longhorns are likely to start two true freshmen up front.

Colorado RB Jarek Broussard earned Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year honors this season by rushing for over 800 yards and 6.3 per carry in just five games.  Dual-threat QB Sam Noyer is tough to deal with as he led the Buffaloes with five rushing touchdowns.  And slowing down these two will be more difficult considering Texas will be without star DE/LB Joseph Ossai.  He wreaks havoc in opposing backfields with 5.5 sacks and three forced fumbles this season.

Dorrell is 13-5 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Colorado.  Dorrell is 9-2 ATS after allowing 37 points or more as the coach of the Buffaloes.  It's clear that Colorado wants to be here more with all of these opt outs by the Longhorns.  And they should be able to stay within a touchdown of Texas and likely pull off the upset.  Bet Colorado in the Alamo Bowl Tuesday.

20* Bills/Patriots ESPN No-Brainer on Buffalo -7

The Buffalo Bills want the No. 2 seed in the AFC.  That would give them home-field advantage all the way until they have to face the Chiefs in the the AFC Championship Game if both teams win out.  Adding to their motivation is that they have been the little brother to New England for a few decades.  They would love to pull off the season sweep here in emphatic fashion.

Of course the Bills are going to show up for a prime time game on National TV.  And of course they are going to show up with it being the Patriots.  So motivation won't be an issue for them, and I expect them to continue firing on all cylinders as they have been for weeks now.

Indeed, the Bills are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall with their only loss coming on the hail mary by the Arizona Cardinals on the final play of the game.  They are 6-0 ATS in their last six gmes overall with five wins by double-digits during this stretch.  They beat the Broncos 48-19 last week, the Steelers 26-15 two weeks ago, the 49ers 34-24 three weeks ago, the Chargers 27-17 four weeks ago and the Seahawks 44-34 seven weeks ago.

Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level by leading the Bills to an average of 34.8 points per game in their last six games.  And their defense is starting to play up to its potential now in holding the last four opponents to 18.8 points per game.  They held the Steelers to 224 yards and the Broncos to 255 yards the last two weeks.

There's no way this pitiful New England offense is going to be able to keep up with Allen and company.  They have averaged just 248.3 yards per game in their last four games coming in.  They were held to 12 points against the Dolphins and outgained by 80 yards.  They were held to 3 points and 220 yards against the Rams.  And they were held to 179 yards against the Cardinals.  They were also held to 291 yards in a misleading win over the Chargers.  And now they are without their best CB in Stephon Gilmore, who would have been matched up with Stefon Diggs.  Now Diggs, who has 111 receptions for 1314 yards this season, will have a huge game tonight. 

The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Buffalo is 11-4-2 ATS in its last 17 road games.  The road team is 21-8-2 ATS in the last 31 meetings.  Bet the Bills Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bears/Jaguars OVER 46.5

The Chicago Bears have become an offensive juggernaut with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback.  He has led the Bears to 30 or more points in three straight games now.  And they have gotten their running game going, making things easier on him in the play-action passing game.

The Bears have rushed for at least 140 yards in all three games.  They only had to punt once against the Vikings last week in their 33-27 victory.  And now they face a Jaguars defense that gave up 40 points to Baltimore last week.  In fact, the Jaguars have now allowed at least 24 points in each of their last 13 games, all losses.  They give up 30.2 points per game this season.  The Bears should get to 30-plus points for a fourth consecutive week.

The Jaguars should be able to do their part against a Bears defense that allowed 34 points to the Lions three weeks ago and 27 to the Vikings last week.  I think Jacksonville should top 20 points in this one.  Mike Glennon will be their quarterback, and he has been the best of the Jaguars' three different signal callers this season.  It will be great weather in Jacksonville as well, which sets this game up to be a shootout.

The OVER is 20-7 in Bears last 27 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The OVER is 19-7 in Bears last 26 games as a road favorite.  The OVER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bengals/Texans OVER 44.5

The Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans have nothing to play for but pride.  I like backing the OVER late in the season when that is the case.  I see defense as being optional in this game, and for both the Bengals and Texans to hang big numbers offensively.

For starters, these are two of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Texans give up 27.6 points and 402.8 yards per game this season.  The Bengals allow 25.4 points and 372.6 yards per game.  The Texans still have a very good offense under Deshaun Watson, and the Bengals showed some life offensively last week with 27 points against a very good Steelers defense.

Houston is 19-6 OVER in its last 25 games coming off three or more consecutive unders.  If the Texans hadn't fumbled inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds against the Colts two of the last three weeks, both those games would have gone OVER.  I think that fact is providing us with some line value here with this total of only 44.5.  Plus the Bengals have gone under the total in four of their last five while playing some very bad offenses in Washington, Giants, Dolphins, Cowboys and Steelers.  That has also provided us with some value on the OVER.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +11

The Kansas City Chiefs are overvalued due to their 13-1 record.  I have been selling high on them for weeks, except for last week I had them when they covered as closing 2.5-point favorites over the Saints.  And now this is a huge letdown spot off that win over New Orleans as they won't be nearly as motivated to face the Falcons.  Not to mention, they basically already have the No. 1 seed wrapped up in the AFC and a first-round bye.

The Chiefs have gone 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have won all six games, but all six wins came by 6 points or less.  They just don't keep their foot on the gas and they just seem to be going through the motions waiting for the playoffs to come.  I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Falcons pull the upset here, and at the very least this 11-point spread is way too high.

The Falcons continue to play hard for Raheem Morris.  In their last seven games, they have either won the game outright or lost by 5 points or fewer six times.  So they have been competitive in every game.  The only exception was the loss to the Saints 9-24 in which they led 9-3 but fell apart in the second half.  They gave the Bucs all they could handle last week in a 27-31 loss.  That's a Bucs team that went on to crush Detroit 47-7 on Saturday.

The Falcons have a very underrated defense that has allowed 24 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall.  They will be able to slow down the Chiefs here.  And Matt Ryan and company should be able to keep pace as well.  They have scored 25 or more points in four of their last seven games and are averaging 25.8 points per game in their last four.

Kansas City is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining 400 or more yards in three straight games coming in.  The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Week 16 games.  Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* Dolphins/Raiders AFC Saturday Night BAILOUT on Miami -3

The Miami Dolphins have been the gift that keeps on giving for me and my premium clients.  They will continue adding to our profits on the day after Christmas here against the fading Oakland Raiders.  The Dolphins are now 9-5 SU this season and 11-3 ATS, the best ATS mark in the NFL.

Better yet, the Dolphins are now 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are currently the 7th seed in the AFC playoffs, tied with the Ravens for the final spot.  They cannot afford to take their foot off the gas now, especially knowing they have a difficult game at Buffalo on deck next week.  This is a must-win for them and they will play like it.

The Dolphins have the best scoring defense in the NFL at 18.4 points per game allowed.  That's what makes them so underrated.  Now they have Tua at quarterback coming into his own the last three weeks.  Hew threw for 296 yards against the Bengals and 316 yards against the Chiefs before completing 20-of-26 passes against the Patriots last week.  And the Dolphins showed they could win that game on the ground with 250 rushing yards in their 22-12 victory.

The Dolphins will be able to do whatever they want to offensively against a Raiders defense that gives up 30.1 points and 385.4 yards per game and just recently fired their defensive coordinator.  It didn't matter much at all as they gave up 30 points and 402 yards against the Chargers last time out.  And now after going 1-4 SU in their last five games overall, the Raiders have been all but eliminated from the playoffs and have nothing to play for the rest the way.

The Dolphins were missing three of their best weapons in WR Parker, WR Grant and TE Gesicki last week and still found a way to win with their running game and a high-efficiency game from Tua.  But all three were close to playing last week, so there's a good chance they get back a few of them this week.  The Raiders have a worse injury situation as they are missing a handful of starters on defense, have injuries all over their offensive line, and now Derek Carr had to leave the last game with a groin injury.  He may return this week, but he won't be mobile at all and will probably hurt the Raiders more by playing than help them.

The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Dolphins are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.  Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five December games.  The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, failing to cover the spread by a combined 66 points.  I'll gladly back the better, more motivated team in this one that has a lot more to play for.  Roll with the Dolphins Saturday.

20* Liberty/Coastal Carolina Cure Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Liberty +7

The Liberty Flames were one of my favorite teams to back all season.  They went 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS this season to earn head coach Hugh Freeze a hefty new contract.  I had them against Virginia Tech as 17-point dogs earlier this season in a game they won outright.  And their only loss came to NC State 14-15 after they had a last-second field goal blocked.

Liberty's stats are off the charts this season.  They are outgaining opponents by over 190 yards per game.  They give up just 307 yards per game defensively.  They average nearly 40 points and 500 yards per game on offense.  QB Malik Willis is one of the most underrated players in the country.  He had a 20-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season.  He led the team in rushing with 807 yards and 10 scores.  He is just tough to handle.

It's time to 'sell high' on Coastal Carolina and their perfect 11-0 record.  I was all ready to fade them with Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship until COVID problems struck the Chanticleers.  And now there may be lingering effects from that with a lack of practice time.  I faded them with Troy in their regular season finale when the Trojans nearly won that game outright.  And I'm going to fade them again here.

I think Liberty will be the more motivated team here.  The Flames are extremely happy to be in this bowl game facing an unbeaten team.  Coastal Carolina thought it might be playing in a New Year's 6 Bowl and probably would have had they beaten Louisiana.  Instead of playing a big name Power 5 program, now they have to play Liberty.  I just can't see them getting up for this game.

"Having another chance to face Coastal Carolina after it was taken away from us at the end of our regular season gives us a chance to finish off a magical season and another special win," Liberty coach Hugh Freeze said.

Freeze is one of my favorite head coaches to back because he is so underrated dating back to his time at Ole Miss.  Freeze is now 62-35 ATS as a head coach.  Liberty is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog.  The Flames are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Take Liberty Saturday.

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals -4.5

Fading the 49ers has made me a lot of money this season.  And I'm not about to stop now as they continue to be overvalued week after week, including here Saturday against Arizona in Week 16.  The 49ers are now 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by 8 points or more.  The Cardinals should be at least 7-point favorites in this matchup.

The 49ers have officially been eliminated from the playoffs after three straight upset losses to Buffalo, Washington and Dallas.  Now they are down to third-string QB CJ Beathard, who is 1-9 as a starter in the NFL, including 0-3 in three meetings with the Cardinals.  And their laundry list of injuries is worse than any other team in the NFL, which is the biggest reason they have struggled this season to a 5-9 record after nearly winning the Super Bowl last year.

The Cardinals are highly motivated right now to clinch a playoff spot.  They are 8-6 and currently in the final spot in the NFC playoff race.  They would clinch a spot in the postseason for the first time since 2015 if they win on Saturday and the Chicago Bears lose to the Jaguars on Sunday.  They have owned the 49ers over the years as they are going for their 5th season sweep in the past 6 years after winning 24-20 at San Francisco in Week 1.

Kyler Murray looks fully recovered from a shoulder injury that hampered him for a few weeks during a three-game skid.  But the Cardinals have since won their last two with a dominant 26-7 road win over the Giants and a 33-26 home win over the Eagles.  The sign that Murray is healthy is that he is using his legs again with 21 rush attempts combined in those two victories.

The offense was certainly hitting on all cylinders against the Eagles with 526 yards as they outgained the Eagles by 104 yards.  They had 390 yards on a very good Giants defense, and they held them to just 159 yards and outgained them by 231 yards.  Now the season-long stats for the Cardinals really show they are a dominant team outscoring opponents by 4.4 points per game and outgaining them by 49.2 yards per game.

The 49ers cannot be trusted to hold onto the football.  They have committed two or more turnovers in eight consecutive games and 10 of their last 11 games overall.  Beathard is a turnover machine as well and will be running for his life in this one.  And this 49ers defense looked to kind of quit last week in giving up 41 points to Dallas.  They are just playing out the string right now and disappointed they have to be in Arizona over Christmas instead of being with their family due to the COVID restrictions in Santa Clara.

Plays against underdogs or PK (San Francisco) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record.  The Cardinals are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Cardinals Saturday.

20* WKU/Georgia State LendingTree Bowl No-Brainer on Georgia State -3.5

Conference USA teams have looked awful early in the bowl season.  North Texas lost 28-56 to Appalachian State, Louisiana Tech lost 3-38 to Georgia Southern and FAU lost 10-25 to Memphis.  All three failed to cover the spread by over 40 points combined.  Expect more of the same here for C-USA member Western Kentucky.

The Hilltoppers went 5-6 this season with four losses by double-digits.  Their five wins came against some awful teams in Middle Tennessee, Chattanooga, Southern Miss, FIU and Charlotte.  And three of those wins came by only 3 points each.  Chattanooga is an FCS team and the four C-USA teams they beat have a combined record of 8-22 this season.

This is a big step up in class here for Western Kentucky.  The Sun Belt has looked great early in the bowl season, including two matchups against Conference USA teams.  Applachian State beat North Texas 56-28 and Georgia Southern crushed LA Tech 38-3.  This is a different matchup here, but Georgia State was one of the better teams in the Sun Belt, which proved to be perhaps the most underrated conference in the country when you consider what Louisiana and Coastal Carolina did. 

Georgia State only lost to Louisiana by 3, App State by 4 and beat Georgia Southern by 6.  This is a veteran Panthers team that returned 16 starters and a ton of seniors this year.  The Panthers had 14 players named to the All-Sun Belt Conference.  And in his 24 seasons as a Division 1 coach, Shawn Elliott has been a part of 19 teams that have reached a bowl game or the NCAA playoffs.

"I am so proud of our players and the hard work to persevere through the season," Elliott said. "We talk about doing things for the first time, and back-to-back bowl games is another first for our program."

I just don't see how Western Kentucky is going to keep up with Georgia State in this one.  The Hilltoppers struggled offensively all season, averaging just 18.8 points per game, which was last in Conference USA.  Georgia State averages 32.7 points per game.  The Panthers are led by QB Cornelius Brown, who has thrown for 2,046 yards and 14 touchdowns, while also rushing for 261 yards and seven scores.

The Hilltoppers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Sun Belt opponents.  Western Kentucky is 2-8 ATS in Saturday games this season.  Bet Georgia State Saturday.

15* Vikings/Saints NFC ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7

The Minnesota Vikings aren't officially eliminated from the playoffs yet.  And until they are, I trust Mike Zimmer to have this team ready to go in Week 16 against the New Orleans Saints.  After all, this is Christmas Day on National TV, so players will be up for this game to try and knock off the Saints.  It's a Saints team they have quietly formed a rivalry with after meeting in the playoffs a couple times in recent years.

There's clearly value with the Vikings here.  In fact, this is their largest underdog role of the season.  They haven't been 7-point dogs or higher in any game this year.  And in their two previous biggest dog roles, they lost in the closing seconds 26-27 as 6.5-point dogs at Seattle.  They won outright 28-22 as 6-point dogs at Green Bay.  And they deserved to cover had Dan Bailey not missed three FG's and an extra point in a 14-26 loss as 6-point dogs at Tampa Bay.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Vikings after going 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  But they have played better than that would suggest.  In fact, the Vikings have now outgained seven straight opponents by an average of 63 yards per game.  They have an offense that will keep them in this game with the Saints.  They have averaged 407.3 yards per game in their last seven.

The Saints remain overvalued from a 9-game winning streak.  But they have since lost their last two outright with a 21-24 loss to the Eagles as 7.5-point favorites and a 29-32 loss to the Chiefs as 2.5-point dogs.  They were outgained by 55 yards by Jalen Hurts and the Eagles.  Then they were fortunate to even be that close against the Chiefs considering they were  held to 285 yards and outgained by 126 yards by the Chiefs.  Kansas City also had a 34 to 15 edge in first downs.

Drew Brees looked to return too early from a rib injury that sidelined him for a handful of games.  He completed just 15-of-34 (44%) of his passes against the Chiefs for 234 yards.  It was all dink and dunk, and he clearly missed having Michael Thomas, who is on the IR.  Not to mention he is without both Tre'quan Smith and Deonte Harris at receiver as well.  The Saints are so thin at the position that they cannot be trusted to get margin here against a Vikings team that will keep coming due to their elite offense.

Minnesota has won three of its last four meetings with New Orleans.  The Vikings are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following two or more consecutive losses.  They are winning outright by an average of 7.5 points per game in this spot.  Zimmer is 14-3 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Minnesota.  The Saints are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games following an ATS loss.  Minnesota is 38-14 ATS in its last 52 games following a SU loss.  Take the Vikings Friday.

20* Marshall/Buffalo Crampton Bowl No-Brainer on Buffalo -4

The Buffalo Bulls were the best team in the MAC this season.  They were also one of the best non-power 5 teams in the country.  And the fact that they lost outright to Ball State in the MAC Championship Game as a 12.5-point favorite has them undervalued heading into bowl season.

That was a misleading loss for Buffalo to Ball State.  They racked up 499 total yards and outgained the Cardinals by 60 yards, but lost 28-38.  Their season stats are off the charts as they score 47.8 points per game and give up just 23.8 points per game.  They boast a rushing attack that averages 310 yards per game and 7.2 per carry behind one of the best backs in the country in Jaret Patterson, who is expected to play in this bowl game.  Patterson has rushed for 1,072 yards, 19 TD and 7.6 per carry this season.

Marshall feasted on an easy schedule early in the season with a 7-0 start.  But the Thundering Herd have been a different team since.  They lost 20-0 as a 24-point favorite against Rice.  Then they lost 13-22 as a 4.5-point favorite against UAB in the C-USA Championship Game.  So their offense has been held to averages of just 6.5 points and 256.5 yards per game in their last two.  

Their defense gave up 468 yards to UAB as they were outgained by 200 yards by the Blazers.  UAB rushed for 216 yards on them, so you can imagine what this Buffalo rushing attack is going to do to them.  And Marshall QB Grant Wells is awful, completing just 26-of-58 (44.8%) of his pass attempts with a 2-to-5 TD/INT ratio against Rice and UAB combined.

While Patterson and everyone is expected to play for Buffalo, Marshall has had three key players opt out.  They will be without leading rusher Brenden Knox, who rushed for 887 yards and nine touchdowns this season.  They will also be without leading tackler Tavante Beckett, who had 90 tackles and four fumble recoveries.  And their best offensive lineman in G Josh Ball has opted out.

Conference USA teams have looked awful early in the bowl season.  North Texas lost 28-56 to Appalachian State, Louisiana Tech lost 3-38 to Georgia Southern and FAU lost 10-25 to Memphis.  All three failed to cover the spread by over 40 points combined.  Expect more of the same here for C-USA member Marshall.

The Thundering Herd are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss.  The Bulls are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 yards in their previous game.  Bet Buffalo Friday.