20* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Memphis/Iowa State OVER 57

The Memphis Tigers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-2 OVER in all games this season.  We have seen 61 or more combined points in eight of Memphis' last nine games overall.  This total of 57 is too low for a game involving the Tigers.

Memphis is putting up 39.7 points per game, 453.2 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  QB Seth Hanigan is expected to play and have all of his top playmakers for this contest.  Hanigan is completing 66.5% of his passes for 3,519 yards with a 28-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  Blake Watson has rushed for 1,045 yards and 14 TD on 5.9 per carry.  Roc Taylor (61 receptions, 981 yards, 4 TD) and Dameer Blankumsee (51, 825, 6 TD) are his top two target.  They will only be without RT Makylan Pounders and RG Davion Carter, but backups Mitchell Gildehaus and Terrance McClain have experience taking their place.

Memphis allows 29.0 points per game, 424.6 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Tigers will be without starting CB Julian Barnett, starting S Cameron Smith and backup BUCK Andres Fox.  Smith is the fourth-leading tackler and a big blow in the secondary for an already suspect Memphis defense.

Iowa State scored 42 points on Kansas State and 45 points on BYU in two of its final three games.  They are going to score at will on this Memphis defense.  The Cyclones will have all of their starters available offensively.  On defense, they will be without CB TJ Tampa, who is an NFL corner.  They could also be without starting S Malik Verdon, leaving their secondary short-handed against Memphis' pass-happy attack.  The Cyclones allowed 281-plus passing yards in three of their final four games this season.

I expect Iowa State to score 35-plus in this one and Memphis to get to at least 28.  Memphis is 7-0 OVER following a conference game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Jets/Browns AFC No-Brainer on OVER 33.5

The Cleveland Browns have been a dead nuts OVER team since getting Joe Flacco.  Their pass rate has gone through the roof with 44 or more pass attempts in all four games he has started.  The Browns and their opponents have combined for 58, 37, 58, 55 and 41 points in their last five games overall.  As you can see, all five games would have gone over this short 33.5-point total, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER.

The New York Jets and their opponents have combined for at least 36 points in four of their last six games overall.  It doesn't take much for an NFL game to top 33.5 combined points, especially with 34 being a very key number with 17-17, 20-14, 21-13 and 24-10 being four common scores that would get us to the OVER.

The Jets are also throwing the ball a ton right now with 36 or more attempts in five consecutive games.  Trevor Siemian threw it 49 times against the Commanders last week in leading the Jets to 30 points.  Both teams are pretty much fully healthy on offense from a playmakers perspective, which is something I want when backing an OVER.

Kevin Stefanski is 8-1 OVER in home games after gaining 400 or more yards last game as the coach of Cleveland.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NC State/K-State Pop-Tarts Bowl ANNIHILATOR on NC State +2.5

The NC State Wolfpack are highly motivated to get their 10th win of the season.  They quietly played some of the best football int he country down the stretch, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games with upset wins over Clemson, Miami, UNC and Virginia Tech.  They also smoked Wake Forest by 20 in what looked to be a clear letdown spot.  Now they are once again underdogs to Kansas State when they should be favored in this game when you factor in all that the Wildcats will be missing.

Kansas State won the Big 12 last year and got a big bowl game as a result against Alabama.  This is actually a letdown for them to be playing n the Pop-Tarts Bowl.  The Wildcats have nine players in the transfer portal including QB Will Howard, so that leaves Avery Johnson as the expected starter at QB.  They also had starting S Kobe Savage and starting CB Will Lee hit the transfer portal, plus starting WR Phillip Brooks and starting TE Ben Sinnott transfer out, which are their two biggest weapons on offense.  DT Uso Deumalo was on crutches in the finale, and LB Jake Clifton was lost for the season after Week 11 after the Wildcats were already without starting MLB Daniel Green and freshman backup Asa Newsom.  Offensive coordinator Collin Klein accepted the same job at Texas A&M as well.

NC State should have all hands on deck for this game in terms of starters outside of NT CJ Clark.  That just goes to show you how 'all in' the Wolfpack are to get their 10th win of the season.  I'll gladly side with the more motivated team with a all of their best players available against the team that lacks motivation with a ton of key opt-outs and transfers down to a backup QB.  Bet NC State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl Thursday.

20* Rutgers/Miami Pinstripe Bowl No-Brainer on Rutgers ML +100

Rutgers actually qualified for a bowl not due to academics with 6 wins for the first time since 2014.  It's safe to say the Scarlet Knights want to be here, and head coach Greg Schiano is 5-1-1 ATS in bowl games in his head coaching career.

Rutgers will have a huge home-field advantage in this one with the short trip to The Bronx for fans to come watch this team play.  It's only an hour drive from campus.  They are a cold weather team used to the elements going up against a warm weather team in Miami that wants nothing to do with having to play in the cold weather and this bowl game up in the Northeast.

While Rutgers only had one key player opt out of this game in CB Max Melton, the losses are large for Miami with transfers and opt-outs.  They will be down to third-string QB Jacurri Brown with starting QB Tyler Van Dyke transferring to Wisconsin and backup QB Emory Williams injured.  The Hurricanes will also be without fellow starters in WR Colbie Young, LB Corey Flagg, EDGE Jahfari Harvey, CB Daryl Porter Jr., S Kamren Kinches, S Jamal Williams, DT Leonard Taylor, C Matt Lee and LG Javion Cohen.  The Hurricanes are likely to be without four starters on offense and five or six on defense.

Schiano is 38-20 ATS in non-conference games as a head coach.  Mario Cristobal is 4-12 ATS after the first month of the season as the coach of Miami.  We are getting the better head coach and the team that wants to be here more at a PK, which is an absolute steal.  Bet Rutgers on the Money Line Thursday.

15* Texas A&M/Oklahoma State Texas Bowl BAILOUT on Oklahoma State ML -130

The Texas A&M Aggies have been absolutely gutted in the transfer portal and in the coaching staff.  Jimbo Fisher was fired and offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino left for the same job at Arkansas.  Elijah Robinson will serve as the interim for the bowl game, but he has his forced on Syracuse where he will be their defensive coordinator.  The rest of the staff is in flux as well.

Third-string QB Jaylen Henderson will get the start with QB Max Johnson off to North Carolina.  Other starters missing are WR Evan Steward, RT Chase Bisontis, EDGE Fadil Diggs, S Bryce Anderson, DL Walter Nolen, CB Tyreek Chappell, CB Deuce Harmon, WR Ainias Smith, LB Edgerrin Cooper, DT McKinnley Jackson and RG Layden Robinson.  That's 12 starters they are expected to be without, plus several other backups in the transfer portal and possibly starting C Bryce Foster and WR Moose Muhammad.

Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy is one of the best bowl head coaches in the country.  His 11 bowl wins rank him among the Top 10 all-time in college football.  Oklahoma State clearly wants to be here as the only potential starter missing would be LB Collin Oliver, but I'm guessing he plays.  Star RB Ollie Gordon I (1,614 yards, 20 TD, 6.3/carry) is going to play, which is all you need to know about how much the Cowboys want to be here.

I'll gladly side with the more motivated team in the Cowboys up against the team that wants nothing to do with this bowl game in the Aggies.  Bet Oklahoma State on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* UNC/West Virginia Mayo Bowl No-Brainer on West Virginia -6.5

The UNC Tar Heels are going to be without a ton of starters for this game, so this is more of a fade of them than anything.  They will be without five players who will be entering the NFL Draft in QB Drake Maye, LB Cedric Gray, C Corey Gaynor, WR Tez Walker and DL Myles Murphy.  They are missing five other starters due to injury in TE John Copenhaver, WR Byson Nesbit, WR Kobe Paysour, CB Alijah Huzzie and S Will Hardy.  Seven other backups hit the transfer portal.

West Virginia will have its full compliment of starters for this one with the exception of C Zach Frazier, who is one of the top centers in the 2024 NFL Draft.  He is only missing this game due to surgery.  Head coach Neal Brown and his players will be 'all in' to try and get a win here when you look at all the players expected to play.

West Virginia is a run-heavy team that averages 236 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry this season.  They will be up against a UNC defense that allows 178 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.  And now this defense won't have several key players at LB, on the defensive line and in the secondary.  But the losses are bigger for UNC's offense, which will be without its QB and all of its top weapons.

The bottom line is WVU cares about this bowl game while UNC does not, and the matchup favors them as well as they will be winning that battle at the line is scrimmage on both sides of the football.  Getting the Mountaineers at anything less than a TD favorite here is a discount.  Bet West Virginia in the Duke's Mayo Bowl Wednesday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/49ers OVER 45.5

The San Francisco 49ers have been an offensive juggernaut when healthy this season.  That basically means when they have had Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel and CMC on the field at the same time.  They got all three back healthy coming out of their bye week and have gone 6-0 since, scoring at least 27 points in every win while averaging 34.5 points per game in those six games.

The 49ers will get their points against a Baltimore defense that benefited from the Jaguars beating themselves offensively last week.  They drove inside the Baltimore 40 a handful of times and only had 7 points to show for it.  The 49ers will capitalize on their opportunities as they are one of the best red zone offenses in the NFL.  They will capitalize similar to the Rams, who put up 31 points and 449 yards on the Ravens the week prior in a 31-37 (OT) defeat.  This one will be a similar shootout.

The Ravens have scored at least 31 points in six of their last eight games overall.  They have their best offense of the Lamar Jackson era, averaging 27.4 points per game, 374.1 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  They haven't been as good as the 49ers, who average 30.4 points per game, 402.6 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play, but they are still one of the top offenses in the NFL.

The 49ers just allowed 29 points and 436 total yards to the Cardinals last week.  A big reason for their struggles defensively last week were injuries as they were missing LB Oren Burks, DT Javon Hargrave and DT Arik Armstead.  CB Deomodore Lenoir also suffered an injury in that game.  Burks, Hargrave and Armstead all missed practice again Thursday after sitting out last week, a bad sign for their availability Monday.  Lenoir did return to practice.

The 49ers struggle to defend mobile quarterbacks which is why Kyler Murray and the Cardinals had so much success against them last week.  They rushed for 234 yards on the 49ers.  Now the 49ers must face Lamar Jackson and a Baltimore offense that averages 164 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  But the 49ers should have success on the ground as well to open things up for Brock Purdy.  The Ravens have allowed at least 128 rushing yards in five of their last nine games overall.

I expect the 49ers to 30-plus in this one and the Ravens to get 20-plus.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay Bucs ML -128

I was leaning toward the Bucs all week but I had to make sure that QB Trevor Lawrence was going to be out for the Jaguars.  As soon as I got that information I pulled the trigger on the Bucs.  Lawrence missed practice again Thursday and sources say he is unlikely to play due to a concussion and an ankle injury.

The Jaguars are in real trouble without him as they have one of the worst backup QB's in the NFL in CJ Bethard, which is saying something.  Bethard has a very hard time reading a defense and loves to just check it down or take off and run, and he's not very fast or athletic.  The Jaguars are going to be in a world of hurt offensively in this one, especially without WR Christian Kirk and WR Zay Jones as well.

The Jaguars are already in a world of hurt defensively, allowing 29.3 points per game and 425.3 yards per game during their current three-game losing streak.  Two of those games came against backup QB's in Joe Flacco and Jake Browning and the other was against the Ravens.  Now they must face Baker Mayfield and a Tampa Bay offense that is absolutely humming right now.

The Bucs are 3-0 in their last three games overall and gaining confidence with each win.  They are trying to win this game and grab a stranglehold on this division.  Mayfield is playing the best football of his career, putting up 29 points on the Falcons two weeks ago and 34 points on the Packers last week.  He had a perfect passer rating against the Packers, going 22-of-28 passing for 381 yards with 4 TD and zero INT while averaging 13.6 per attempt.

The Bucs are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  Their entire starting 11 on offense is healthy, and they have been missing some key players on defense that they are likely to get back this week.  NT Vita Vea, DT William Gholston, CB Carlton Davis III, S Ryan Neal, CB Jamel Dean, LB Lavonte David and LB Devin White have all missed time recently.  Amazingly, all seven are expected to play this week.  The stock on the Bucs is very much on the rise due to this return to health defensively.  Bet the Bucs on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Texans OVER 41.5

Note: I grabbed this OVER 41.5 Sunday night with the anticipation it would move higher once CJ Stroud was announced in.  Now that he's not playing it has only been adjusted down to 40 as of this writing.  I love the OVER 40 even with Case Keenum starting in his place.  Here's why:

The Cleveland Browns have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL at home but the 31st-ranked scoring defense on the road.  They allow 30.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.  The OVER is 6-0 on all Cleveland road games as a result.

The Browns have also been much better offensively on the road than they have been at home.  They are scoring 24.2 points per game on the road.  Now they get to go play indoors with perfect scoring conditions in Houston.  This total of 40 is way too low for a road game involving the Browns.

Cleveland has gone to a pass-happy scheme since signing Joe Flacco.  They attempted 45 passes against the Bears, 45 against the Jaguars and 44 against the Rams.  All these pass attempts stop the clock more often and are beneficial to OVERS.  They are trying to get the ball out of Flacco's hand quick to help make up for injuries on the offensive line.  And Flacco has shown he's still one of the best deep ball throwers in the game.

This total has been adjusted down too much off the news that CJ Stroud is unlikely to play for a second straight week.  Veteran Case Keenum went on the road last week and beat the Titans.  He rebounded from an early pick-6 to lead the comeback victory in OT.  He will be much more comfortable in his 2nd game in this offensive scheme, which is one of the most diverse in the league.  Devin Singletary had 170 yards from scrimmage to take some of the pressure off Keenum last week, and he has emerged as a serious weapon in this offense.

Both Flacco and Keenum are prone to turnovers as Flacco has already thrown five interceptions in his three starts, while Keenum threw that terrible Pick 6 last week.  These turnovers could certainly help set up some easy scoring opportunities for both of these offenses.  Plus, these offenses will be up against two injury-ravaged defenses, and this is as much a play against these defenses as anything.

The Browns have three players on IR and five more questionable on defense.  The Texans have five players on IR and 5 defensive starters currently questionable.  The Texans have gotten some key weapons back healthy on offense recently in Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz, plus Nico Collins returned to practice this week.  They average 24.7 points per game, 394 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play at home this season.  The Browns have all of their top skill players fully healthy for this one, and they are forming chemistry with Flacco.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Atlanta Falcons -1

I love the spot for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They will be 'all in' to get this win and stay alive in the tight NFC South race.  It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Falcons, who are 4-10 ATS this season and one of the worst covering teams in the NFL.  But they easily could be a lot better as they have six losses by one score this season, including five by 5 points or fewer.

Arthur Smith said QB Taylor Heineke will start the rest of the way as he is tired of watching Desmond Ridder and this offense struggle in the red zone with dumb turnovers.  He had another key turnover as the Falcons were trying to put the game away late in a 9-7 loss to the Panthers last week.  Now we 'buy low' on the Falcons off that defeat.

The Falcons have been much more potent offensively at home.  They score 23.3 points per game, averaging 388 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play at home.  The Falcons have rushed for 122 or more yards in six of their last seven games overall.  I like this matchup for their offense up against a Colts defense that has allowed 111 or more rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Colts, who are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have been fortunate in close games winning three of their last four by one score.  Their luck runs out this week, and their defense will get exposed.  The Falcons have the better defense allowing 19.9 points per game, 311.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  The Colts allow 24.5 points per game, 347.5 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

A big reason money is pouring in on the Falcons this week is due to the great news they got Thursday on their injury report.  LT Jake Matthews, C Drew Dalman, G Chris Lindstrom and T Kaleb McGary all returned to practice Thursday and they should have all five starters healthy for this one, which hasn't been the case the last few weeks.  Defensively, DE Calais Campbell and NT David Onyemata both returned to practice Thursday as well.  The Falcons could be as healthy as they have been since the beginning of the season, which is what they need for this stretch run.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans ML -135

Note: Merry Christmas! Those of you who bought this play later in the week get a much better line on the Texans at +3/+2.5 than I did when I hit the opener on Sunday night. I apologize to those who bet it early with me and got a worse line than current, which rarely happens. I expected CJ Stroud to return from a concussion, but it's going to be Case Keenum instead.   I added more money at +3.  I still expect the Texans to win this game even with Keenum.  This play was more of a fade of the Browns than anything.  Here's why:

The Cleveland Browns have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL at home but the 31st-ranked scoring defense on the road.  They allow 30.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.  The Browns have three players on IR and five more questionable on defense.  The Texans have been at their best offensively at home, averaging 24.7 points per game, 394 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play at home this season.

Veteran Case Keenum went on the road last week and beat the Titans.  He rebounded from an early pick-6 to lead the comeback victory in OT.  He will be much more comfortable in his 2nd game in this offensive scheme, which is one of the most diverse in the league.  Devin Singletary had 170 yards from scrimmage against the Titans to take pressure off Keenum.  

The Texans have gotten some key weapons back healthy on offense recently in Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz, plus Nico Collins returned to practice this week.  Also expected to play are OT Laremy Tunsil, G Shaq Mason, WR John Metchie, S Jimmie Ward and LB Denzel Perryman as the injury report came out pretty clean on Thursday compared to what most were expecting.

Joe Flacco is getting way too much love right now.  He has beaten a hobbled Trevor Lawrence and a flat-lining Jaguars team at home.  He needed a 10-point comeback in the 4th quarter to beat the Bears at home last week.  And in his lone road start, he lost 35-19 to the Rams.  Flacco has thrown 5 interceptions in his three starts and is playing behind the most banged-up offensive line in the NFL.  The Browns are missing their top three offensive tackles, and currently four more projected starters are questionable or doubtful.  Flacco and this offensive line will get exposed on the road this week in a hostile environment against a solid Houston defense.

The Browns are 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS on the road this season and getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play away from home.  Kevin Stefanski is 5-17 ATS games after covering the spread in two of his last three games as the coach of Cleveland.  The Browns are 14-36 ATS in their last 50 games vs. good rushing defenses allowing 3.5 or fewer yards per carry.  Houston will win this game outright.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Colts/Falcons OVER 43.5

The Indianapolis Colts are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-4 OVER in all games this season.  They run an up-tempo, creative offense under Shane Steichen and have a terrible defense.  The Colts are expected to get their two biggest playmakers back on offense this week in WR Michael Pittman Jr. and RB Jonathan Stewart.

Now they hit the road to face an Atlanta Falcons team that is also built for more OVERS, especially with the upgrade of Taylor Heineke at QB.  Arthur Smith said Heineke will start the rest of the way as he is tired of watching Desmond Ridder and this offense struggle in the red zone with dumb turnovers.  He had another key turnover as the Falcons were trying to put the game away late in a 9-7 loss to the Panthers in terrible weather conditions outdoors last week.  That score is suppressing this total as well and providing us with some line value on the OVER.

The Falcons have been much more potent offensively at home.  They score 23.3 points per game, averaging 388 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play at home.  But they have a poor defense that has allowed 25 or more points in four of their last seven games.  Both teams will get their points in this one.

The Falcons have rushed for 122 or more yards in six of their last seven games overall.  I like this matchup for their offense up against a Colts defense that has allowed 111 or more rushing yards in seven of their last eight games overall.  But the Colts will get their points as well as they always do, putting up 27 or more points in six of their last eight games overall.

Indianapolis is 8-2 OVER in games played on turf this season.  The Colts are 25-7 OVER in their last 32 road games after covering the spread in four of their last five games.  Plays on the OVER on all teams against the total (Atlanta) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent in the 2nd half of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Bills/Chargers AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 43.5

The Los Angeles Chargers absolutely quit defensively last week.  They gave up 63 points to the lowly Raiders, who had been shut out the previous week.  I don't trust this defense to show up at all against the Bills on Saturday, and I expect the Bills to hang a big number on the Chargers to lead the way in us cashing this OVER ticket.

The Bills have scored at least 31 points in three of their last four games overall and I expect them to get 31-plus in this one.  I like what I saw from the Chargers offensively late in that loss to the Raiders.  They were down 63-7 and kept trying to score, putting up two touchdowns in the final eight minutes.  They will keep coming on offense as Easton Stick is trying to prove he belongs.

The Bills have a very banged up defense.  They are without CB White and LB MIlano, plus a ton of players have the questionable tag this week in DE Epenesa, DT Phillips, DE Floyd, CB Elam and FS Hyde.  They would be a legit Super Bowl contender if they could just get some of these guys healthy, but that won't be the case this week.  The Chargers have five defenders on IR and four more questionable for this one.

The Chargers and Bills have combined for 44, 51 and 78 points in their last three meetings.  This total is just too short tonight for a game involving these two banged-up defenses and two capable offenses in perfect scoring conditions in Los Angeles.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Utah/Northwestern Las Vegas Bowl No-Brainer on Northwestern +7

Teams that won 3 or fewer games the prior season and qualified for a bowl the next season are 34-12-2 ATS over the past eight bowl seasons.  Teams that improved by 6-plus wins (or by 50%-plus) from the prior regular season are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 bowl games as underdogs after going 4-1 ATS last season.  These systems basically show that these teams are happy to be here and give their best effort, and that will be the case for Northwestern.

The Northwestern Wildcats were one of the best stories in all of college football this season.  Interim head coach David Braun had to take over for Pat Fitzgerald just before the season.  After a slow start to the season, the Wildcats went 4-1 SU in their final five games with their only loss coming 10-7 to Big Ten West champion Iowa.  The Wildcats upset Wisconsin as 12-point road dogs, upset Maryland as 14.5-point home dogs and upset Illinois as 6.5-point road dogs.  They went 7-0 ATS in their final seven games.  The Wildcats clearly want to be here.

The Utah Utes had Pac-12 title expectations coming into the year.  But they never got their starting QB back from injury, and their offense struggled all season to keep up with what was a very good Utah defense.  The Utes limped to the finish line, going 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in their final three games.  They lost by 24 at Arizona and then only beat Colorado by 6 as 21-point home favorites despite the Buffaloes playing without star QB Shedeur Sanders.  Utah does not want to be here after playing in the Rose Bowl the last two seasons.

The Utes had several players hit the transfer portal, plus they lost two important defensive starters earlier this season to injury in LB Lander Barton and EDGE Logan Fano.  Leading WR Devaughn Vele (43 receptions, 593 yards, 3 TD) opted out as well.  Meanwhile, Northwestern only had one starter hit the transfer portal in LG Josh Priebe.  They will have all hands on deck for this one, further proof that they want to be here and finish the season the on a 4-game winning streak with yet another upset victory.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* Georgia State/Utah State Potato Bowl No-Brainer on Utah State ML +110

Teams that finished .500 by winning their final regular season game to qualify for a bowl are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 tries.  This trend goes to show that teams that win their final regular season game to get bowl eligible are clearly motivated to be there and thus go out and perform well.  It think that will be the case for Utah State here.

In fact, Utah State went 3-1 SU in its final four games with its only loss coming to Boise State, which was the Mountain West champion.  The Aggies boast some impressive numbers for a team that is just 6-6 on the season.  They average 446.3 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play while allowing 417.6 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 29 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play on the season.

Georgia State also finished 6-6 but clearly cannot be too happy to be here.  The Panthers opened 6-1 this season and looked to be a real contender to win the Sun Belt.  Instead, they have gone 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS since.  They lost by 17 to Georgia Southern, by 28 to James Madison, by 28 to Appalachian State and by 42 to LSU.  They weren't even competitive down the stretch, and head coach Shawn Elliott may have lost this team.  The Panthers are getting outgained by 58 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play on the season.

Several of Georgia State's best players hit the transfer portal.  That includes leading rusher Marcus Carroll (1,350 yards, 13 TD) and leading receiver Robert Lewis (70 receptions, 877 yards, 7 TD).  Carroll is headed to Missouri while Lewis is headed to Auburn, so clearly those two programs thought both of these players were good enough to play in the SEC.  Starting RT Montavious Cunningham is headed to Virginia Tech and starting CB Bryquice Brown is headed to Boston College.  You could argue that Georgia State will be without its four best players now.

Utah State doesn't have any important players in the transfer portal other than S Devin Dye.  They should have basically all hands on deck here.  I also like the angle that QB Levi Williams will be playing in his final collegiate game before joining the military.  Williams actually played in this same bowl game last year leading Wyoming to a 52-38 win over Kent State.  He rushed for 200 yards and 4 TD while also throwing for another score in the win.  

Williams was named MWC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance against New Mexico in the regular season finale.  Hew went 16-of-27 passing for 198 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, while also rushing for 169 yards and three scores to show off his dual-threat ability.  There is really no drop off from their other two QB's to Williams as the Aggies have arguably the best depth of any team in the country at QB.

This will also be basically a home game for the Aggies being played in Boise, Idaho, a stadium they are very familiar with getting to play Boise State every year.  It's only a 4 hour drive for their fans and they will have a big home-field advantage as a result.  Bet Utah State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Arkansas State/Northern Illinois Camellia Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas State PK

Fading the MAC is something you will see over and over again from my picks this bowl season.  The MAC was way down this year, even more than normal, and they historically struggle in bowl season.  The Sun Belt is notoriously undervalued, and that looks to be the case again this season as 12 of the 14 Sun Belt teams qualified for a bowl game.  They play a much tougher schedule than these MAC teams and are more battle-tested as a result.

Arkansas State went 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games this season despite not being more than a 1-point favorite in any of the five games.  They crushed Texas State 77-31 to get bowl eligible.  They also took South Alabama to the wire in a 7-point road loss as a 15-point underdog.  Butch Jones now has the Red Wolves going to a bowl game for the first time since 2019 in his third season on the job.  This is a program on the rise.

The Red Wolves have all starters expected to play in this game other than LB Javante Mackey.  It's safe to say they are happy to be here and looking forward to this opportunity.  I expect fans to make the trip from Jonesboro to Montgomery, AL for this Camellia Bowl and support this team.

Northern Illinois went 3-2 SU but 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The three wins weren't impressive at all as all three came against three of the worst teams in all of college football in Eastern Michigan (130th), Western Michigan (127th) and Kent State (188th).  Those rankings are from Jeff Sagarin and combine FBS and FCS teams.  While Northern Illinois faced the 128th-ranked schedule in the country, Arkansas State faced the 113th.

Arkansas State QB Jaylen Raynor is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He averaged 9.0 yards per attempt this season with a 15-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 324 yards and five scores on the ground.  I like this Arkansas State offense over Northern Illinois, which likely only has one proven healthy receiver for this game.  It's a lackluster NIU offense that averages just 25.3 points per game despite facing such a soft schedule.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

20* Saints/Rams NFC No-Brainer on OVER 44.5

The Los Angeles Rams are healthy on offense with Stafford, Nacua, Kupp and Williams and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Rams have scored 28 or more points in four consecutive games and are averaging 33 points per game in those four games and hung 31 on the Ravens and 36 on the Browns, two of the best defenses in the NFL.

The Saints' defense isn't nearly as good as it gets credit for.  The Saints have faced one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses and quarterbacks this season.  They still gave up 27 points to the Colts, 27 to the Vikings and 24 to the Falcons.  The only legit offense they faced in recent weeks was the Lions, and they gave up 33 points in a 33-28 loss that saw 61 combined points.  They are without CB Marshon Lattimore and S Marcus Maye, and their secondary will get exposed by the Rams.

But the Saints are getting healthier on offense now and showing what they are capable of.  They have scored 24 or more points six of their last eight games overall.  Now they are expected to get back their top receiver in Chris Olave for this one after he sat out against the Giants with an ankle injury.  I think they can keep pace with the Rams and will be forced to try and keep up in a shootout because they aren't going to be able to stop Stafford and company.

The last four Rams' games have seen 48, 68, 55 and 51 combined points.  The Rams and Saints have combined for at least 46 points in five of their last six meetings.  This 44.5-point total is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Syracuse/South Florida Boca Raton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on South Florida +3

Teams that won 3 or fewer games the prior season and qualified for a bowl the next season are 34-12-2 ATS over the past eight bowl seasons.  Teams that finished .500 by winning their final regular season game to qualify for a bowl are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 tries.  These systems basically show that these teams are happy to be here and give their best effort, and that will be the case for South Florida.

South Florida finished 6-6 after beating Charlotte 48-14 in their regular season finale.  The Bulls will be going to their first bowl game since 2018, so they are clearly happy to be here.  They didn't have any significant opt-opts and will have basically all hands on deck for this one.

Syracuse limped to the finish going 2-6 in its final six games with the two wins coming against non-bowl teams in Wake Forest and Pittsburgh.  Head coach Dino Babers was fired, and the Orange had a few players hit the transfer portla.  I think they have very questionable motivation heading into this one as a result and are a vulnerable favorite.

Syracuse is 0-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 425 or more yards per game.  The Bulls put up 30.8 points per game and 455.3 yards per game this season and will have a big advantage on offnese in this matchup.  They rush for 185 yards per game and throw for 271 yards per game.  Syracuse is actually getting outgained by 22.6 yards per game on the season.  Bet South Florida Thursday.

20* Eagles/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

The Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks have two banged up, tired defenses right now heading into this Monday Night Football showdown.  These are also two very healthy offenses that can take advantages of these defenses.  That's why I'm on the OVER, plus the forecast looks pretty good for a shootout with light winds and temps in the 40's.

The Seahawks have allowed 33.3 points per game, 438.3 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play in their last three games.  They have six players in the front seven depth chart that are out or on the IR.  They have two more secondary players on IR and three more questionable, including CB Devon Witherspoon.  They have no depth right now, and SS Jamal Adams continues to get exposed in coverage week after week.

The Eagles are allowing 36.3 points per game, 451.7 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play in their last three games.  The Eagles have four players on IR in the back seven, plus FS Reed Blankenship suffered a concussion last week and will likely sit.  He means a lot to his secondary.  CB Darius Slay has lost a step and is questionable.  Opponents are really picking on this Eagles' secondary, and the Seahawks will be able to do the same.  This defense was on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs, 91 against the Bills, 55 against the 49ers and then 71 plays against the Cowboys.

The Eagles have been getting a lot of grief on offense the last two games against the 49ers and Cowboys.  They fumbled three times in Dallas territory and should have scored more.  They finally get a reprieve here against the Seahawks, who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  So they should get right on offense.  

The Seahawks have been good offensively the last two weeks scoring 35 points against the Cowboys before Geno Smith sat out last week, but they were still productive against the 49ers.  They get Smith back this week from a groin injury and also take a big step down in defensive class here after having to face the 49ers (twice) and Cowboys in their last three games.

Pete Carroll is 30-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Seattle.  Both of these teams are dead nuts OVER teams in their current form and both offenses should be able to take advantage of two of the worst secondaries in the NFL.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* WKU/Old Dominion Famous Toastery Bowl No-Brainer on Old Dominion -2.5

Old Dominion fought hard to make a bowl game and is happy to be here.  The Monarchs needed to win their final two games of the season just to get bowl eligible and did so in dramatic fashion.  They upset Georgia Southern 20-17 as 5-point road dogs and then pulled off the 25-24 comeback win over Georgia State in the final seconds at home in the regular season finale.

Now Old Dominion fits into several bowl systems that have been very profitable.  Teams that won 3 or fewer games the prior season and qualified for a bowl the next season are 34-12-2 ATS over the past eight bowl seasons.  Teams that finished .500 by winning their final regular season game to qualify for a bowl are 22-13 ATS in their last 35 tries.  These systems basically show that these teams are happy to be here and give their best effort, and that will be the case for Old Dominion.

Western Kentucky is used to competing for conference championships but they were denied by Liberty and New Mexico State this season.  This despite Conference USA being one of the worst conferences in the country.  The Hilltoppers just didn't have it, especially defensively where they allowed 28.2 points per game and 427 yards per game this season.  Their offense was also down a couple notches from the past fewer years.

Now this WKU offense is going to be down a couple more notches.  They had three starting offensive linemen hit the transfer portal.  Reports have surfaced that starting QB Austin Reed could miss the bowl, and backup QB Caden Veltkamp is also in the transfer portal, meaning they could be down to a third-string QB.  NFL prospect WR Malachi Corley is also worth watch.  I like Old Dominion whether or not Reed and Corley play, and this line will move even more of they don't.

The Hilltoppers' already suspect defense will be without starting CB Upton Stout, starting LB Desmyn Baker, starting S Talique Allen and CB TJ Stringer.  So they will be without three starters in the secondary, making life easy on Old Dominion their passing game.  The Monarchs will only be missing three starters in WR Javon Harvey, S Terry Jones and LB Jason Henderson.  This will be just their 2nd bowl game since 2017, so they are clearly happy to be here with so few opt-outs.

The Sun Belt is notoriously undervalued, and that looks to be the case again this season as 12 of the 14 Sun Belt teams qualified for a bowl game.  They play a much tougher schedule than these C-USA teams did and are more battle-tested as a result.  The Monarchs played the 81st-toughest schedule while the Hilltoppers played the 123rd.

Western Kentucky is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall with its only cover coming against one of the worst teams in all of college football in Florida International by 13 as 11.5-point favorites.  The Hilltoppers are 1-7 ATS after committing one or fewer turnovers this season.  The Hilltoppers just don't stand much of a chance without three starting offensive linemen and four starters on defense and possibly more.  Bet Old Dominion Monday.

20* Cowboys/Bills Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Buffalo ML -120

The Dallas Cowboys hadn't beaten a team that currently has a winning record all season until they finally got that monkey off their back last week against the Philadelphia Eagles.  Now I think this is a massive letdown spot for the Cowboys coming off that win over their biggest rivals.

The Cowboys had some aid in that game as the Eagles came in with a very tired defense that was on the field for a ton of players the previous two games against the Bills and 49ers.  The Eagles didn't have much left in the tank, and they also had three costly fumbles that were somehow all recovered by the Cowboys.

While this Dallas offense has been humming at home and indoors, the Cowboys now have to go on the road and play on grass in the elements.  I don't think their offense will be nearly as effective.  They also take a big step up in class in opposing defenses after getting to play the Eagles, Seahawks and Commanders the last three weeks.  I think the Bills have the better defense in this matchup.

How has Dallas fared lately on the road outdoors on grass?  How about 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last eight road games on grass.  Now they must take on a rested Bills team that had a bye two weeks ago before going on the road and upsetting the Chiefs 20-17 as underdogs last week.  Now the Bills are very much alive for the playoffs with a lot to play for.  

It will be a raucous atmosphere in Buffalo working in their advantage as the Cowboys rely a lot on timing for their offense.  You hear Dak use "Here We Go" before every snap at home, and it gives them an advantage with that cadence to time it right.  Players won't be able to hear him in Buffalo, and I think we see a ton of Cowboys penalties on offense in this game because of it.  This is one of the most undisciplined teams in the NFL under Mike McCarthy as it is.

I was on Buffalo last week and said they were the best 6-6 team in the history of the NFL, and now they are the best 7-6 team in NFL history.  All six of their losses have come by 6 points or less, so they have been unfortunate in close games.  They are outscoring opponents by 8.0 points per game, outgaining them by 57 yards per game and outgaining them by 0.3 yards per play on the season.

Sean McDermott is 11-2 ATS after a win by 3 points or less as the coach of Buffalo.  They finally won a close game and now have a ton of confidence and new life heading into this week.  They are still very much alive to win the AFC East with the Dolphins injured and faltering.  Dating back further, Buffalo is 43-18 ATS in its last 61 games off a win by 3 point or less.  Bet the Bills on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Rams -6.5

The Los Angeles Rams have fought their way back into playoff contention since getting healthy.  All of Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have been banged up at times this season and missed games.  But now all four are healthy and we're getting to see that this is one of the best offenses in the NFL when that's the case.

The Commanders have the worst defense in the NFL since they traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat.  They weren't very good before making those moves, but they have been even worse after.  They allowed 38 points to the Eagles, 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to the Giants, 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys and then 45 points and 406 yards to the Dolphins in their five games other than the Patriots during this stretch.  The Patriots have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

The Rams are going to hang a big number on them, too.  The Rams are humming on offense right now scoring 37 points with 457 yards on the Cardinals, 36 points with 399 yards on the Browns and 31 points with 410 yards against the Ravens in their last three games.  Baltimore and Cleveland have two of the best defenses in the NFL, so this will be a big step down in class for them.

Stafford is completing 60% of his passes for 3,062 yards with a 19-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season and averaging 7.3 per attempt.  Williams has rushed for 801 yards and accounted for 10 total TD while averaging 5.0 per attempt on the ground.  Having him back in the lineup has meant everything.  Kupp is finally fully healthy for the first time all season, and Nacua has 82 receptions for 1,113 yards and 4 TD to emerge as one of the top receivers in the NFL already.

The Rams have also allowed 20 or fewer points in four of their last five games overall as they have finally gotten healthy.  Only the Ravens hung more than 20 on them, and the Ravens have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  Now they face a Commanders offense that has been held to 20 points or fewer in four of their last five games.  Sam Howell is a turnover machine as the Commanders have 11 turnovers in their last five games during this stretch.  Howell is going to have to play a flawless game for the Commanders to have any chance, and I don't see that happening.  This line should be -7 or higher.

You also have to question the motivation of Washington.  Ron Rivera fired a couple staff members already, and he is a dead man walking at the end of the season and players know it.  It's going to be hard for these players to be motivated the rest of the way knowing that's the case.  The Rams are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 December games.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Cardinals +14

I love the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  They are coming off their bye week and these bye weeks are usually more effective for teams with first-year head coaches like Arizona.  The Cardinals continue to show up every week and have been competitive in three of their last four games, including outright upsets over Atlanta at home and Pittsburgh on the road since getting Kyler Murray back.  They also only lost by 5 at Houston as 5.5-point dogs, going 3-1 ATS in their last four games.  Their only blowout loss came to the Rams, a team that has owned them since Sean McVay took over.

This is a terrible spot for the San Francisco 49ers.  They have won five consecutive games since their bye week with the last three coming against the Seahawks (twice) and Eagles.  After playing two division games and getting their revenge on the Eagles, this is the 'exhale' game for the 49ers.  They just want to get in and get out with a victory in Arizona.  They won't be worrying about getting margin.  Plus, they have another massive game against Baltimore on deck, so that makes this a sandwich spot for them.

We saw the Seahawks cover against the 49ers last week after getting blown out by them in the first meeting.  I think we see the same thing here.  Arizona lost 35-16 in San Francisco as 15-point underdogs in that first meeting this season.  But that game was a lot closer than the final score would indicate.  The 49ers only outgained the Cardinals by 33 yards in that game.  Josh Dobbs was the starting QB in that game, and twice receivers dropped TD passes that would have gotten the Cardinals the back door cover in the closing seconds.  Murray is clearly and upgrade over Dobbs.

The 49ers had six starters miss practice on Wednesday heading into this game.  DT Arik Armstead, OL Spencer Burford, LB Oren Burks, LB Dre Greenlaw, DT Javon Hargrave and CB Charvaius Ward were all out Wednesday.  That makes all six questionable heading into this one, and I would not be surprised to see the 49ers be cautious with some of these guys thinking they can still beat the Cardinals without them.

The Cardinals should get rookie WR Michael Wilson back for the first time since November 17th.  There's also a decent chance WR Marquise Brown plays after the bye week.  CB Antonio Hamilton sat out last game but is back practicing.  The bottom line is the Cardinals should be much healthier this week, while the 49ers have a lot of key players that could miss this game after getting battered against the Seahawks last week.

It's time to 'sell high' on the 49ers, who are power-rated through the roof by everyone right now.  Plays against road favorites (San Francisco) - a dominant team outscoring opponents by 10 or more points per game after a win by 10 points or more are 48-17 (73.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on 49ers/Cardinals OVER 47.5

The San Francisco 49ers have the best offense in the NFL right now.  They are scoring 29.2 points per game, averaging 402.3 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play.  They are fully healthy on offense right now and have scored at least 27 points in five consecutive games.  They will get their points against the Cardinals this week as well.

But I think the Cardinals can get their points, too.  They are coming off a bye week and should get WR Michael Wilson back this week.  The Cardinals put up 24 points on the Steelers the game going into their bye, and they are primed for another solid performance here against the 49ers.  They should have some new offensive wrinkles for Murray under a first-year head coach coming out of their bye.

The Cardinals do have one of the worst defenses in the NFL allowing 25.5 points per game, 355.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  They have allowed 35, 38, 38 and 31 points to the 49ers in their last four meetings.  The OVER is 4-0 in those four meetings with 48 or more combined points in all four.

The 49ers have a very good defense, but they have some concerning injuries on that side of the ball right now.  Four starters in LB Dre Greenlaw, CB Charvarius Ward, DL Javon Hargrave and LB Oren Burks all missed practice on Wednesday and are all questionable to play this week.  The Seahawks found success against them last week even with backup QB Drew Lock.  I think this could be a letdown spot for this San Francisco defense.  Josh Dobbs and Arizona's offense put up 362 total yards on the 49ers in their first meeting this season.  Kyler Murray should have even more success.  

The OVER is 5-0-1 in Arizona's six home games this season inside the dome.  We are seeing 51.9 combined points per game in these six games.  Five of the six games have seen 48 or more combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Commanders/Rams OVER 48.5

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER 4-0 in their last four games overall with 50 or more combined points in all four.  They have gone for 50 or more combined points in five of their last six games with the lone exception being their game against the Patriots, who are a dead nuts under team with no offense and a great defense.

The Commanders have the worst defense in the NFL since they traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat.  They weren't very good before making those moves, but they have been even worse after.  They allowed 38 points to the Eagles, 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to the Giants, 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys and then 45 points and 406 yards to the Dolphins in their five games other than the Patriots during this stretch.

The Rams are going to hang a big number on them, too.  The Rams are humming on offense right now scoring 37 points with 457 yards on the Cardinals, 36 points with 399 yards on the Browns and 31 points with 410 yards against the Ravens.  Baltimore and Cleveland have two of the best defenses in the NFL, so this will be a big step down in class for them.  The OVER is 3-0 in Rams last three games overall with 51, 55 and 68 combined points.  Their defense gave up 37 points and 449 yards to the Ravens last week.

The Commanders are coming off their bye week and should have some new wrinkles on offense to give this mediocre Rams defense some troubles.  Rookie QB Sam Howell ranks 5th in the NFL in passing yards with 3,449 yards this season.  He has ample weapons outside to get the ball to, and he's a dual-threat who averages 6.1 yards per attempt and has 5 rushing touchdowns this season.  He is also a turnover machine.  This offense is pretty much fully healthy heading into this game and will have to go up-tempo in the 2H to try and keep up with the Rams, who will name their number.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bears +3.5

I've backed the Bears each of the last two weeks and they delivered pulling off the outright upsets over the Vikings and Lions.  I'm going to back them again this week as 3.5-point road dogs to Cleveland as they continue to be undervalued.  Their season-long stats are keeping them undervalued because they have been a completely different team in the 2nd half of the season.

It basically started when they traded for Montez Sweat and the defense got healthy.  The Bears have allowed 13 points or fewer in three of their last four games.  The held the Lions to just 14 points with only a few minutes left in the game before the Lions went off for 17 points in the final couple minutes.  They got their revenge on the Lions with a 28-13 home win last week, holding them to 267 total yards in the process.

Now the Bears actually feel like they are still alive for the playoffs at 5-8 this season.  If they win this game against Cleveland, then they have two home games they will likely be favored in the next two weeks against Arizona and Atlanta.  They can legitimately get to 8-8 this season, and that would keep them alive because the 6-7 Packers are currently in the playoffs in the NFC if the season were to end today.  They play the Packers in Week 18.

Justin Fields returned against the Lions three weeks ago and has been playing some pretty flawless football both as a runner and as a passer.  He has found a great connection with DJ Moore, and the Bears have really opened up the playbook.  Also helping matters is the fact that the Bears are currently the healthiest team in the NFL.  They only have five players on the injury report and two are likely to play this week with only one for sure out.

Conversely, the Cleveland Browns are the most injury-riddled team in the entire NFL right now.  They are down to their 4th different starting QB in Joe Flacco, and while he has played well, there's reason to believe he won't this week.  That's because the offensive line will be without their top 3 offensive tackles.  G Joel Bitonio and C Ethan Pocic are also questionable.  This is an absolute mash unit up front for Flacco.

Defensively, DE Myles Garrett is banged up.  DT Jordan Elliott, CB Denzel Ward, and FS Juan Thornhill are all questionable.  SS Grant Delpit just hit the IR after suffering a groin injury last week.  This Cleveland defense has taken a big step back in recent weeks due to all these injuries.  They are allowing 30.7 points per game in their last three games.  They gave up 29 to Denver, 36 to the Rams and 27 to the Jaguars.  The Bears are going to have a lot of success against this defense, especially on the ground.  Cleveland is allowing 130 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per game in its last four games.

Cleveland would have gone five consecutive games without winning once by more than 3 points if the Jaguars had kicked the XP at the end in a 4-point loss.  That's why getting this +3.5 number is so key.  Also keep in mind the Jaguars were playing with a banged-up and immobile Trevor Lawrence, he was missing his top receiver and both starting tackles on offense.  Yet the Jaguars still scored 27 points on them.  And this will be the toughest defense that Joe Flacco will have faced after getting to face the Jaguars and Rams previously.  I fully expect Chicago to win this game outright.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +6

The New York Giants have been grossly undervalued since Tommy DeVito took over as the full-time starter.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets.  They beat Washington 31-19 as 7.5-point road dogs, the Patriots 10-7 as 4.5-point home dogs and the Packers 24-22 as 5.5-point home dogs.  Now they are being undervalued again here as 6-point road dogs at New Orleans.

DeVito has been much better than he gets credit for.  He is completing 66% of his passes with an 8-to-3 TD/INT ratio while averaging 6.8 per attempt, plus he adds a dual-threat dimension with 71 rushing yards and on 10 attempts against the Packers.  The Giants used their bye well and came up with the proper game plan to beat the Packers and use DeVito's legs more.  And now they should still be fresh considering they just had a bye week to make up for the fact that this is a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.

But while I believe the Giants are undervalued, this is as much a bet against the Saints being overvalued as anything.  They are coming off one of the most misleading finals of the season last week when they beat the Panthers 28-6.  They only gained 207 yards in that game and gave up 303 yards to the Panthers, nearly getting outgained by 100 yards despite winning by 22.

Derek Carr came out and said he's playing through fractured ribs.  This is a very banged up Saints team with their top two WR's in Olave and Shaheed questionable.  G Andrus Peat is also questionable as is do-it-all QB Taysom Hill, who sat out last week.  Defensively, the Saints have lost their best CB in Marshon Lattimore, starting S Marcus Maye and starting DT Malcolm Roach who are all on injured reserve.

I just don't think there's much separating these two teams right now.  The Giants' season-long stats are keeping them undervalued because they are a much better team now than they were in the first half of the season.  They are as healthy as they have been all season on the offensive line and at receiver, plus having RB Saquan Barkley healthy has made a big difference as well.  Their defense is good enough to keep them in this game for four quarters and is playing at a high level right now.  The team clearly has belief now with DeVito under center.

Derek Carr is 19-37 ATS as a favorite in his career, including 9-26 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more.  Dennis Allen is 6-16 ATS as a favorite as a head coach, including 2-8 ATS this season.  Allen is 0-7 ATS after a win by 10 points or more as a head coach.  New Orleans is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.  New York is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Saints are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 6-plus points per game on the season.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* Broncos/Lions Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver +5.5

The Detroit Lions just cannot be trusted right now because they are so poor defensively.  They allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 points to the Bears, 29 points to the Packers, 28 to the Saints and 28 to the Bears in their last five games.  There is no help in sight, especially since they lost one of their most important defensive players in DT Alim McNeill to injured reserve two games ago.

Jared Goff is not playing well either and he has poor protection in front of him.  Both T Taylor Decker and C Frank Ragnow are questionable for this game.  Now he'll be up against a very good Denver defense that has allowed 22 or fewer points in eight consecutive games and an average of 14.8 points per game in those eight games.  They have been grossly undervalued after a poor start to the season by their defense, but now they are healthy and showing what they are capable of.

This defensive surge for the Broncos is a big reason why they are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last even games overall with their lone loss coming by 5 points at Houston in a game where they had a chance to win in the closing seconds but threw an INT in the end zone.  They beat the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings, Browns, Packers and Chargers during this 6-1 stretch, so it's not like they are beating up on the weak.  Five of those six wins came against playoff contenders.

This Denver offense is taking care of the football with a ball control offense and taking shots when they are there.  The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in five of their last six games overall, and they won't have a problem getting to that number against this soft Detroit defense.  This is actually a big step down in class for them after facing the Chargers, Texans, Broncos, Vikings, Bills and Chiefs in their last six games.  Russell Wilson is in line for a big game, as is RB Javonte Williams and this Denver rushing attack.

Detroit is 35-58 ATS in its last 93 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Sean Payton is 28-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as a head coach.  Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) - after allowing 25 points or more in four consecutive games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS since 1983.  This game will likely be decided by a FG either way.  Bet the Broncos Saturday.

15* Vikings/Bengals NFL Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 39

The Cincinnati Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have a terrible defense that has allowed 30 or more points in three of their last five games overall.  They also allowed over 400 yards to the Steelers in one of the two games they didn't.  They allow 379 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play this season.

The offense hasn't missed a beat with Jake Browning at quarterback the last two weeks plus the emergence of Chase Brown in the backfield.  Ja'Marr Chase has been balling out for Browning, and having a healthy Tee Higgins back in the lineup has helped as well.

Browning is completing 76% of his passes for 924 yards with a 5-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.1 per attempt.  He went 32-of-37 passing for 354 yards against the Jaguars and 18-of-24 passing for 275 yards against the Colts in his last two games as the full-time starter.

The Vikings are making the switch to Nick Mullens at QB after the Josh Dobbs experiment did not work.  He was dreadful against the Bears and Raiders the last two weeks.  Mullens is a better fit for Kevin O'Connell's offensive system and will stand in the pocket and make the right throws.  He should be sharp with a full week to prepare to be the starter.

Mullens got good news on the injury front with WR Justin Jefferson expected to play.  He returned last week and got injured early against the Raiders.  I also think this Vikings offense will benefit from taking a step down in class this week against this Bengals defense.  The Vikings have played four straight good defenses in the Raiders, Bears, Broncos and Saints.

At the same time, this Minnesota defense is getting a lot of credit for what they have done in recent weeks.  But they have also benefited from an easy schedule of opposing offenses in the Raiders, Bears, Broncos and Saints the last four weeks as well.  This is a big step up in class for them facing a Cincinnati offense that is humming right now.

The forecast looks great for a game in Cincinnati in December as well.  There are expected to be only 5 MPH winds with temps in the 50's.  I do think this game has shootout written all over it too, and this total is very low for a game involving the Bengals right now.

The OVER is 5-2 in Bengals last seven games overall and we've seen 42 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  Zac Taylor is 8-1 OVER off a home win by 10 points or more as the coach of Cincinnati. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Georgia Southern/Ohio 2023 Bowl Opener on Georgia Southern -3

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Southern Eagles after going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their final four games to close out the season.  They played a brutal schedule down the stretch with three of their final four games on the road.  They had little to play for after clinching bowl eligibility but also being eliminated from conference title contention simultaneously.

Now I think we get a fully focused effort from the Eagles in this bowl game.  They lost to Buffalo by 2 in their bowl game last season to fall to 6-7 and a losing record.  They don't want that to be their fate again.  The Eagles will have all hands on deck for this game with the exception of possibly RB Jalen White, who is questionable with injury.  They didn't have any opt-outs, which is unheard of in today's college football.

The transfer portal really hit Ohio hard.  The Bobcats will be without QB Kurtis Roarke (15 total TD), WR Miles Cross (47 receptions, 617 yards, 5 TD), RB Sieh Bangura (811 yards, 7 TD) and backup RB O'Shaan Allison (452 yards, 3 TD) on offense.  They also lose their best player on defense in LB Keye Thompson (94 tackles).  Ohio already lost WR Jacoby Jones earlier this season.  Backup QB CJ Harris led Ohio to a bowl victory last season, but he's out for the year, so they will be down to third-stringer Parker Navarro.  They are going to be without their top two QB's, their top two RB's and their top two WR's.  They won't be able to take advantage of what has been a suspect Georgia Southern defense.

Fading the MAC is something you will see over and over again from my picks this bowl season.  The MAC was way down this year, even more than normal, and they historically struggle in bowl season.  The Sun Belt is notoriously undervalued, and that looks to be the case again this season as 12 of the 14 Sun Belt teams qualified for a bowl game.  They play a much tougher schedule than these MAC teams and are more battle-tested as a result.

Ohio is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 road games after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers.  It's only a four hour drive from Statesboro, Georgia to Conway, SC so the Eagles should have the majority of the fans at this game.  I can't see Ohio fans turning out to support a team that is losing all of its top playmakers on offense.  Bet Georgia Southern Saturday.

20* MNF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Titans/Dolphins OVER 46.5

Miami averages 32.0 points per game, 428.4 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season as the top offense in the league.  They have managed to stay remarkably healthy at receiver and QB, and they just got their explosive RB in Achane back from a knee injury last week.  He averages 9.5 yards per carry with 534 rushing yards and 7 TD, while also catching 13 balls for 101 yards and another 2 TD.  He and Mostert form one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL, and they are in line for big games in this one.

The Dolphins have an improving defense with Jalen Ramsey returning from injury, but unfortunately they lost another key cog two weeks ago in pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips late in their 34-13 road win over the Jets.  They also potentially lost fellow LB Jerome Baker to a knee injury in their 45-15 win over the Commanders last week.  They are getting short on pass rushers.

The Titans are coming off a 31-28 (OT) shootout loss to the Colts last week.  They did enough on offense to win that game with 381 total yards.  Unfortunately their defense and special teams let them down, and they lost their punter to injury after having his 2nd punt blocked.  They also lost Derrick Henry, but he cleared concussion protocol and there's a good chance he plays this week.  But the big loss is DT Jeffery Simmons, who suffered a knee injury last week and is now out for this game.  Simmons is one of the best DT in the entire NFL and one of the most underrated as well.

The Dolphins are going to be able to name their number against this putrid Tennessee defense that allows 67.3% completions and 7.1 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.  They gave up 31 points and 300 passing yards to the Colts last week.  They gave up 34 points in their previous road game to the Jaguars.  And now they will be up against the best offense they have faced all season this week.

I think Will Levis can do enough to keep the Titans coming back and help cash this OVER ticket.  Levis is one of the top deep ball throwers in the NFL right now and has found a good connection with DeAndre Hopkins.  He also has a weapon in Tyjae Spears out of the backfield and is forming chemistry with Chigoziem Okonkwo, who had 3 receptions for 62 yards against the Colts last week.

Miami and its opponents have combined for at least 47 points in nine of its 12 games this season.  The only exceptions were against three teams with bad offenses and good defenses in the Patriots, Chiefs and Raiders.  The Titans don't meet the criteria of a good defense, especially after trading away S Kevin Byard and now losing DT Jeffery Simmons to injury.

Plays on the OVER on any team (Tennessee) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival in the 2nd half of the season are 29-7 (80.6%) over the last five seasons.  Teams in this situation off a 7-point loss or less are 41-15 (73.2%) to the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Giants +7

It's time to 'sell high' on the Green Bay Packers this week.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three outright upsets as underdogs.  They took advantage of several drops by the Chargers and won 23-20 as 3-point home dogs.  They took advantage of more mistakes by the Lions in a 29-22 win as 8.5-point road dogs on Thanksgiving.

Last week they didn't have a letdown because they had the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs come to Lambeau Field.  They promptly pulled off the 27-19 upset as 6-point home dogs.  The Chiefs' offense remained broken, and they lost two starters on defense and one on offense due to injury throughout the game.

This is the letdown spot.  Now the Packers go from 6-point home dogs to 7-point road favorites against the New York Giants.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Giants as they were the Lions and Chiefs.  You just can't get up for opponents this many games in a row.  This is a clear flat spot for the Packers, who are fat and happy right now and primed for that dreaded letdown.

Meanwhile, the New York Giants continue to get no respect from the books for a 3rd consecutive game.  The Giants pulled the 31-19 upset as 7.5-point road dogs to the Commanders two games ago.  They pulled the 10-7 upset home win over the Patriots as 4.5-point dogs in their last game.  And last week they had a bye to rest and recover and prepare to face the Packers.

Head coach Brian Daboll is one of the best in the business at getting the most out of his players.  He will come up with the proper game plan to get his team ready.  Tommy DeVito has been much better than he gets credit for, completing 63% of his passes with a 7-to-3 TD/INT ratio in five games this season.  He has more TD passes (7) than Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor (4) have combined for this season.  And the team loves him and is playing hard for him, which is what matters most.

The Giants have a pretty good defense and have held opponents to just 18.2 points per game, 271 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play at home this season.  They will come up with the proper game plan to slow down Jordan Love and company.  Love and WR Christian Watson were forming a great chemistry, but Watson suffered a hamstring injury late in the win over the Chiefs and is doubtful to play this week.  Also doubtful is RB Aaron Jones, and TE Luke Musgrave remains out.  The Watson injury in particular is massive because the Packers have a bunch of no-name receivers outside he and Doubs.

The Giants have a healthy Saquon Barkley to deploy against this shaky Packers run defense and take some pressure off DeVito.  The Packers have allowed at least 140 rushing yards in four consecutive games.  They allow 136 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry on the season, making them one of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run.  They are 30th in rushing yards per game allowed and 26th in yards per carry allowed.

Green Bay is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. teams that allow 130 or more rushing yards per game.  Plays against road favorites (Green Bay) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams that allow 335-370 YPG), after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Packers will get more of a fight from the rested Giants than they bargained for Monday night.  It's time to 'sell high' on Green Bay.  Bet the Giants Monday.

25* Eagles/Cowboys NBC SNF GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas -3

My favorite play last week was the 49ers over the Eagles.  One of my favorite plays this week is the Cowboys over the Eagles for many of the same reasons.  Just like the 49ers wanted revenge from their playoff loss to the Eagles, the Cowboys want revenge from their 28-23 loss in Philadelphia earlier this season.

Just like the 49ers had the rest advantage on the Eagles after playing on Thursday while the Eagles played on Monday the previous week, the Cowboys have the rest advantage after playing on Thursday while the Eagles were in that war with the 49ers.  In fact, the Eagles have been in several wars here recently and don't have anything left in the tank for the Cowboys.

The Eagles are a tired team that has been through the gauntlet.  They put in a lot against the 49ers last week in their 42-19 defeat.  They just went to OT against the Bills the week prior in a downpour.  They came back from a double-digit 2H deficit to beat the Chiefs on Monday Night Football the week prior.  And they held off the Cowboys 28-23 at home with a late stand the game prior.  So this will be their 5th consecutive game against one of the top teams in the NFL.

The Eagles' defense in particular is worn out.  They were on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs and then 91 plays against the Bills.  They gave up 515 total yards to the Bills and then were gashed for 42 points and 456 yards by the 49ers.  They also banged up and injured, particularly on defense.

The Steelers got a lot of grief for getting outgained in every game this season up until the last two weeks.  Well, the Eagles have been working miracles with what they have been able to do in recent weeks.  They beat the Commanders five games ago despite giving up 472 total yards and getting outgained by 98 yards, they beat the Cowboys four games ago despite allowing 406 yards and getting outgained by 114 yards, they beat the Chiefs three games ago despite getting outgained by 98 yards and they beat the Bills two weeks ago despite allowing 505 yards and getting outgained by 127 yards.  They were outgained by 123 yards by the 49ers last week.

As you can see, the Eagles have been outgained by 98 or more yards in five consecutive games and somehow managed to win four of them.  They are the luckiest team in the NFL going 7-1 in games decided by one score.  Their luck ran out last week against the 49ers, and it won't come back this week against a Cowboys team that is fresher, healthier and simply wants it more.

The numbers certainly show the Cowboys are the better team.  They are outgaining opponents by 93 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play this season, while the Eagles are only outgaining opponents by 11 yards per game and actually getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play.  Dallas should be more than a 3-point home favorite when you consider they are the better team with all those rest and healthy advantages to boot.

Dallas is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 25.2 points per game.  The Cowboys are scoring 41.0 points per game at home this season.  They have scored 40, 41, 37, 37 and 29 points in their last five home meetings with the Eagles while going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in those five home meetings.  Betting Dallas team total over 27.5 is also worth a bet this week.  

Dallas is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 400 or more yards in its previous game.  The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. awful passing defenses allowing 260 or more passing yards per game.  Dallas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 30 points or more last game.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing Dallas.  The Cowboys were looking ahead to this game against Philadelphia and still managed to beat the Seahawks 41-35 last week.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* Bills/Chiefs AFC ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +3

I love the spot for the Buffalo Bills this week.  They are desperate for a win sitting at 6-6 on the season and in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.  The Bills got their bye week at the perfect time last week to give them a chance to get healthy and rested to make a run here down the stretch.  It starts with an upset victory over the Kansas City Chiefs this week.

The Bills are one of the best 6-6 teams in NFL history when you look at their numbers.  They are actually outscoring opponents by 8.4 points per game, outgaining opponents by 64 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.  They have simply had poor luck in close games with all six losses coming by 6 points or fewer.

The Chiefs have been through a bit of a gauntlet the last three weeks.  They lost 21-17 at home to Philadelphia after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead three weeks ago.  They needed to come back from 14-0 down to beat the Raiders two weeks ago on the road.  And last week they lost 27-19 at Green Bay on Sunday Night Football.  They won't be able to match the intensity of the rested Bills.

The Chiefs suffered some key injuries in that loss to the Packers last week.  They lost LB Drue Tranquill to a concussion, S Bryan Cook to an ankle and T Donovan Smith to a neck injury.  The first two almost certainly will be out, while Smith is highly questionable.  That's a big blow to their defense, which was already missing LB Nick Bolton.  That defense got gashed by the Packers for 27 points and 382 total yards.

This Kansas City offense is broken, which is why the Chiefs aren't nearly as good as they have been in year's past.  They average just 22.9 points per game this season.  That's a far cry from the 30-plus they have been averaging since Mahomes took over at QB.  It's late enough in the season to realize this offense just isn't going to get fixed because there is a lack of playmakers on the outside other than Travis Kelce, and teams have been scheming to take him away.  The Bills will be doing the same.

The Bills are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 road games after allowing 25 points or more.  Buffalo is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 road games off a road loss.  Plays on road teams (Buffalo) - after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games, in December games are 91-38 (70.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  These teams are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 years when the line is +3 to -3.  

Buffalo is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Kansas City.  Sean McDermott is 8-1 ATS in road games after allowing 30 points or more as the coach of Buffalo.  Bet the Bills Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Lions/Bears OVER 43.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 79, 57, 51 and 61 combined points.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Lions.  I get there is expected to be some weather, but I still like the OVER in this one.

Justin Fields has been playing some great football since returning from injury and is a different QB right now.  He is using his legs well as the Bears have rushed for an average of 147.5 yards per game in their last four games.  They average 138 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry this season.

The Bears are going to be able to move the football at will on a Detroit defense that is one of the worst in the NFL right now.  The Lions allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 to the Bears, 29 to the Packers and 28 to the Saints in their last four games.  They have allowed an average of 30.3 points per game in their last four games overall.

It will be tough for the Bears to tame this Detroit offense for four quarters.  The Lions are loaded with weapons and a good rushing attack.  They average 27.3 points per game, 400.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play this season.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 57, 61 and 61 combined points.  Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games off a win by 6 points or less.  The Lions are 7-1 OVER off a win this season.  Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games vs. teams that allow 235 or more passing yards per game.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bears +5

I love the spot for the Chicago Bears Sunday.  They will be out for revenge from blowing a 26-14 lead with under 3 minutes to go in a 31-26 loss to the Lions just three weeks ago.  The Bears are the healthiest team in the NFL right now and coming out of their bye week.  This team is trending in the right direction and primed for a big effort Sunday off the bye.

Justin Fields has been playing some great football since returning from injury and is a different QB right now.  He is using his legs well as the Bears have rushed for an average of 147.5 yards per game in their last four games.  They average 138 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry this season.

The Bears are going to be able to move the football at will on a Detroit defense that is one of the worst in the NFL right now.  The Lions allowed 38 points to the Chargers, 26 to the Bears, 29 to the Packers and 28 to the Saints in their last four games.  They have allowed an average of 30.3 points per game in their last four games overall.  It is tough for them to get margin when they can't stop anyone.

The weather is going to help us cash this ticket on the Bears.  The forecast is calling for 20 MPH winds and better than a 50% chance of precipitation.  The Bears rely much more on running the football than the Lions do.  Jared Goff has not been good outdoors in bad weather in his career.  The weather will limit this usually potent Detroit passing attack.

The Lions are going to be forced to run the football more than they want to, and when they try they are going to be up against one of the best run defenses in the NFL in the Bears.  The allow just 79 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season.  The Bears have been playing great defense for weeks since getting healthy and trading for Montez Sweat.  That is a big reason they are undervalued, plus the fact that Fields has been better than most realize.

The Lions lost their two centerpieces to injury last week against the Saints.  They will be without DT Alim McNeill and C Frank Ragnow.  Their losses hurt this team more than most realize as McNeill is a great run stuffer and also had 5 sacks this season.  Many feel he is the heart and soul of the defense.  Ragnow is a tremendous run blocker and makes all the calls on the offensive line.  Goff will be very uncomfortable without him.

Detroit is 16-30 ATS in its last 46 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  The Lions are a tired team playing four straight one-score games the last four weeks.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bears, who are off their bye and ready for revenge in the elements at Soldier Field.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucs/Falcons OVER 39

The first meeting between the Bucs and Falcons this season saw just 29 combined points in a 16-13 road victory by the Falcons.  The score from that first meeting is providing us some line value to go OVER the total in the 2nd meeting here with a total below the key number of 40.

That first meeting should have seen nearly 50 combined points.  Desmond Ridder fumbled three times when the Falcons were in scoring position, including twice at the Tampa Bay 1-yard line.  That's a minimum of 17 extra points they should have had but didn't get.  The Bucs also had two turnovers and red zone struggles.  These teams combined for 730 total yards with the Falcons with 401 and the Bucs with 329.  Both teams moved the ball with plenty of ease in that contest.

The difference in the rematch is now this is going to be on a fast track inside the dome in Atlanta.  Looking back at this head-to-head history, it's easy to see there's value with the OVER when looking at previous games played in Atlanta.  In fact, the Bucs and Falcons have combined for 43 or more points in 10 consecutive meetings in Atlanta, including 47 or more in nine of those 10.  They have averaged 54.8 combined points per game in those 10 games, which is more than 15 points higher than this total.  They have combined for 39 or more points in 13 consecutive meetings in Atlanta as well, making for a 12-0-1 system backing this OVER pertaining to this 39-point total.

More key differences in the rematch are that both defenses are banged up and missing key players.  The Falcons lost their most important defender in DT Grady Jarrett to a torn ACL.  Last week they lost their top CB AJ Terrell to a concussion, and it's unlikely he'll be able to clear protocols in time for this one.  That's bad news for the Falcons not having him against Tampa Bay star WR Mike Evans, who just topped 1,000 yards receiving for the 10th consecutive season last week.  Only Jerry Rice has more with 11.  Starting MLB Nate Landman and starting NT David Onyemata are both questionable as well.

The Bucs have all kinds of injuries at linebacker.  They were without five linebackers by the end of their game against the Panthers last week.  Lavonte David may return this week, but they are thin at the position.  NT Vita Vea missed practice on Wednesday with a foot injury, and their top CB in Jamel Dean remains out.  

What was previously a great Tampa Bay run defense now has shown some holes the last two weeks.  The Colts rushed for 155 yards on them and the Panthers rushed for 133 on them the last two games.  Now they have to try and tame one of the best rushing attack in the NFL in the Falcons, who average 135 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry this season.

I think Atlanta's low-scoring game with the Jets last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.  That game was played outdoors and the Falcons were just trying not to make mistakes because they knew the Jets couldn't move the football on them with Tim Boyle at QB.  It has bene a different story at home for the Falcons this season.  The Falcons average 23.0 points per game, 380.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play at home on the fast track.  They also allow 20.5 points per game at home, averaging 43.5 combined points per game in their six home games this season.

The Bucs allow 23.8 points per game, 383.8 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on the road this season.  Their offense has been better on the road, averaging 22.5 points per game away from home.  Tampa Bay road games are averaging 46.3 combined points per game this season.  Given all the defensive injuries for both teams and all these numbers, this 39-point total is clearly too low this weekend.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bengals/Jaguars ESPN No-Brainer on Jacksonville -7

BONUS TEASERS: I am doing every combination of teasers with the Jaguars, Cowboys and Dolphins this week getting them all below -3 using 6 and 6.5-point teasers.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 8-3 this season and a legitimate contender for the top seed in the AFC.  They have gotten their offense going coming out of the bye scoring 34 points in a 34-14 win over the Titans at home and then 24 points in a 24-21 road win at Houston.  They also had 445 total yards on the Texans and should have scored more, getting stopped at the 1-yard line right before halftime and also missing a FG.

Now the Jaguars will hang a big number on arguably the worst defense in the entire NFL right now in the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Bengals are allowing 389.0 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  They just allowed the Pittsburgh Steelers to top 400 yards, which is remarkable considering Pittsburgh had gone 58 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense.

That was a very misleading final against the Steelers that is keeping this line lower than it should be.  The Steelers outgained the Bengals 421 to 222, or by 199 total yards.  They only won 16-10 and should have won by more.  They dropped a wide open TD among other fluky mistakes.

The Bengals allowed 34 points and 405 yards to the Ravens the week prior and 30 points and 544 yards to the Texans the week before.  The Jaguars will be able to name their number on this soft Cincinnati defense, and the Bengals won't be able to keep up without Joe Burrow.  It was an ugly showing for Jake Browning in his first start in place of Burrow as he led the Bengals to just 222 total yards and 10 points.  It won't go any better against one of the top defenses in the NFL in the Jaguars, who allow just 20.5 points per game and 342.4 yards per game this season.

Jacksonville is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after covering the spread in three of its last four games.  The Bengals are 1-25 SU in road-neutral night games over the last 25 years.  They are on a 16-game losing streak in this spot with their last win in Philadelphia in 2012.  Zac Taylor is 4-20 SU as a head coach of the Bengals without Joe Burrow as his QB.

Plays against road teams (Cincinnati) - with a pathetic defense that allows 6.0 or more yards per play after being outgained by 150 or more yards in their previous game are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Jaguars Monday.

20* 49ers/Eagles NFC No-Brainer on San Francisco PK

I love the spot for the San Francisco 49ers this week.  They have extra rest after playing last Thursday while also recently getting a bye.  They are about as healthy as they have been all season and showing what they can do when healthy, going 3-0 since the bye while outscoring their opponents by a combined score of 92-30, or by an average of over 20 pints per game.

Now the 49ers have their sights set on revenge on the Philadelphia Eagles, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year.  Brock Purdy got hurt in the first half of that game against the Eagles and it really changed the game.  To a man, the 49ers believe they would have won that game if he finished the game healthy.  Now they'll be out to prove it.

The Eagles are a tired team that has been through the gauntlet.  They just went to OT against the Bills last week in a downpour.  They came back from a double-digit 2H deficit to beat the Chiefs on Monday Night Football the week prior.  And they held off the Cowboys 28-23 at home with a late stand the game prior.  So this will be their 4th consecutive game against one of the top teams in the NFL, and they have a rematch with the Cowboys on deck next week.

The Eagles' defense in particular is worn out.  They were on the field for 73 plays against the Chiefs and then 91 plays against the Bills last week.  They gave up 505 total yards to the Bills last week.  They lost DT Fletcher Cox and LB Zach Cunningham to injury in that game, and both are very questionable to play this week and missed practice on Wednesday.  OT Lane Johnson is one of their most important players and is questionable to play as well.

The Steelers got a lot of grief for getting outgained in every game this season up until last week.  Well the Eagles have been working miracles with what they have been able to do in recent weeks.  They beat the Commanders four games ago despite giving up 472 total yards and getting outgained by 98 yards, they beat the Cowboys three games ago despite allowing 406 yards and getting outgained by 114 yards, they beat the Chiefs two games ago despite getting outgained by 98 yards and they beat the Bills last week despite allowing 505 yards and getting outgained by 127 yards.

As you can see, the Eagles have been outgained by 98 or more yards in four consecutive games and won them all.  They are the luckiest team in the NFL going 7-1 in games decided by one score.  I think their luck runs out this week against a 49ers team that wants it more, is the better team and is the much healthier team.

The 49ers have elite numbers this season scoring 28.2 points per game and allowing 15.5 points per game, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points per gmae.  They are outgaining opponents by 91 yards per game and outgaining them by 1.5 yards per play on the season.  The Eagles are now only outgaining opponnets by 23 yards per game and 0.2 yards per play.  They are much closer to an average team than their record would indicate simply due to their luck in close games.

The 49ers are 8-0 when they've had Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams on the field at the same time this season with all eight wins coming by 7 points or more and seven of those eight wins by 13 points or more.  They improve to 9-0 with Samuel and Williams on the field this week.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Broncos/Texans OVER 45

It has taken a couple miracles to keep the last two Houston games under the total.  I know because I've been on the over in both of them, and both losses were bad beats.  I think there's value in the OVER in a Houston game this week as a result.

Houston and Arizona scored 31 combined points in the 1st half two weeks ago.  But they only had 6 points after halftime due to CJ Stroud throwing three interceptions inside the Arizona 25-yard line, and the Cardinals turning it over on downs three times in Arizona territory.

Last week, Houston and Jacksonville combined for over 800 yards of offense.  But there were three missed FG's and the Jaguars were stopped at the 1-yard line to finish on 45 combined points and under the closing 48-point total.  I have to think Houston is going to start cashing in more scoring opportunities, and Denver will get their fair share of points this week as well.

CJ Stroud and this Houston offense are humming right now.  The Texans average 375 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season behind a passing game that averages 276 passing yards per game.  Stroud is completing 63.7% of his passes for 3,266 yards with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He is loaded with receivers on the outside, and both Tank Dell and Noah Brown returned to practice on Thursday.  They haven't had each of their top four receivers available since Week 1, making what Stroud has done even more impressive.  They should have all four this week.

Russell Wilson is clearly more comfortable in Sean Payton's offense now than he was at the beginning of the season.  The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in four consecutive games and an average of 24.5 points per game during this stretch despite facing four good defenses in the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings and Browns.  This Houston defense that ha s allowed at least 24 points in three of their last four is actually a big step down in competition for Wilson and company.  But the Texans will get their points, and Wilson will be forced to try to keep up in a shootout in perfect conditions inside the dome in Houston.

 I don't think this Denver defense is as good as it is getting credit for.  The Broncos have benefited from forcing a total of 16 turnovers during their five-game winning streak.  But the season-long stats show this is one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Broncos allow 25.5 points per game, 388.3 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season, with the latter two numbers being the worst marks in the league.

Plays on the OVER on any team (Houston) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent in the 2nd half of the season are 29-6 (82.9%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers went 58 games in a row without gaining 400 yards.  It spanned from Matt Canada's first game as offensive coordinator to his last.  Fittingly, Canada was fired last week, and the Steelers topped 400 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals.  They used the middle of the field a lot more with TE Pat Freirmuth and got their running game going, which has quietly been dominant in recent weeks.

The Steelers have rushed for at least 153 yards in four consecutive games and an average of 174 yards per game to take some pressure off Kenny Pickett.  He had one of the best games of his career against the Bengals, going 24-of-33 passing for 278 yards without an interception in the win.  The Steelers outgained the Bengals by 200 yards and should have won by more as it was a misleading final in a 16-10 win.  I think that misleading final is keeping this line shorter than it should be.

Now the Steelers get to go up against a similarly poor defense in the Arizona Cardinals this week.  The Cardinals gave up 419 yards to the Texans two weeks ago and 37 points and 457 total yards to the Rams last week.  They should have allowed more points to the Texans as CJ Stroud threw three interceptions inside the Arizona 25-yard line to take points off the board.  That was a misleading final and they were fortunate to cover the 5.5-point spread in a 5-point loss.

The Steelers should be able to run the ball at will against an Arizona defense that allows 140 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  They gave up 228 rushing yards to the Rams last week and have allowed at least 111 rushing yards in seven consecutive games.  They just lost their top LB in Kyzir White to a season-ending injury against the Texans and have a ton more injuries that are hampering them defensively.

The offense doesn't look any better with Kyler Murray at QB than it did with Josh Dobbs.  They managed just 16 points against the Texans two weeks ago and 14 points against the Rams last week. Three key playmakers in WR Marquise Brown, WR Michael Wilson and TE Trey McBride all missed practice Wednesday and are questionable.  Speaking of questionable, the Cardinals have questionable motivation the rest of the way and would be better off trying to tank for a top pick.  They may do so without even trying as they are one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Steelers have a lot more to play for and are trying to win a division title.  They trail the Ravens by just one game in the division and have the tiebreaker over them.  They have five straight very winnable games coming up and want to take advantage.  I think with new life on offense and an already dominant defense, the sky is the limit for this team.  Plus, they should get S Minkah Fitzpatrick back from injury as he returned to practice this week.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.

Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.  Mike Tomlin does a good job of getting his players to take every game seriously the later in the season it gets.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dolphins/Commanders OVER 49

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  They probably currently have the worst defense in the NFL after trading away two of their best defensive linemen in Sweat to the Bears and Young to the 49ers.  They also have a ton of injuries in the secondary that are making them dreadful on that end right now.

Indeed, the Commanders have allowed 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to Tommy DeVito and the Giants and 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys in their last three games coming in.  It's safe to say this No. 1 ranked Miami offense is going to hang a big number on them this week.

Miami averages 30.8 points per game, 430.5 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season as the top offense in the league.  They have managed to stay remarkably healthy at receiver and QB, and now they get their explosive RB in Achane back from a knee injury this week.  He averages 11.8 yards per carry with 461 yards and 5 TD.  He and Mostert form one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL, and they are in line for big games in this one.

The Dolphins have an improving defense with Jalen Ramsey returning from injury, but unfortunately they lost another key cog last week in pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips late in their 34-13 road win over the Jets.  Sam Howell has been one of the most impressive rookies in the NFL for Washington and actually leads the league in passing yards.  

Howell has thrown 18 touchdowns against 13 interceptions this season while completing 67% of his passes and averaging 278.3 passing yards per game.  He has also rushed for 222 yards and three TD while averaging 6.2 per carry.  He is a walking turnover though, so expect some easy scores by the Dolphins due to those turnovers.  But Howell will keep coming, and that's what you need when backing an OVER is the trailing team capable of scoring quickly in comeback mode.  We have that here on both sides.

Miami is 9-2 OVER in its last 11 road games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 61% or higher completions.  Mike McDaniel is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more yards per carry as the coach of the Dolphins.  Ron Rivera is 30-12 OVER vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Saints OVER 44.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL and a very leaky defense.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Lions, so I jumped on this OVER 44.5 early in the week when the lines came out.

In their last four games the Lions scored 26 points and had 486 total yards against the Raiders, scored 41 points and had 533 yards against the Chargers, scored 31 points and had 338 yards against the Bears and scored 22 points and had 464 yards against the Packers.  They are pretty much fully healthy on offense and showing how good they can be when that's the case.

But the Lions have been a disaster on defense over the last three weeks.  They have allowed 31.0 points per game, 377.3 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play despite facing the Bears, Packers and Chargers, so it's not like they have faced any elite offenses.  They lost LB Alex Anzalone against the Packers and he is doubtful to play Sunday.  Even the New Orleans Saints are going to hang a big number on the Lions this week.

Injuries have really decimated this New Orleans defense.  They were already without their top CB in Marshon Lattimore, then they lost DE Cameron Jordan last week against the Falcons and he is their best defensive lineman.  Jordan is very questionable to play in this game after not practicing all week.  S Marcus Maye and LB Pete Werner have both been ruled out as well.

The Saints allowed 27 points and 388 total yards to a mediocre Vikings offense and 24 points and 396 total yards to a mediocre Falcons offense in their last two games.  They have now allowed at least 24 points in four of their last five games overall with the lone exception coming against the Bears, who turned it over five times or would have scored more.

The OVER is 6-2 in Detroit's last eight games overall with 44 or more combined points in six of hose eight games.  The OVER is 3-2 in Saints last five games overall with at least 39 combined points in all five, and 46 or more combined points in three of the five.  It will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome in New Orleans.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Louisville/Florida State ACC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 49

Florida State losing star QB Jordan Travis in a meaningless game against North Alabama is one of the biggest tragedies in college football this season.  They were a legit playoff contender with him, but now they may not make it even if they beat Louisville.  I don't know if they are going to win the game, but I do know they won't be very good on offense against Louisville with backup QB Tate Rodemaker.

We got to see how they are going to play moving forward with him in a 24-15 win over Florida in an absolute defensive battle last week.  That's a Florida team with a terrible defense, too.  The Seminoles managed just 224 total yards against Florida while limiting the Gators to 232 yards.  They shortened the game running just 57 offensive snaps while Florida ran only 60.

Florida State is going to have to lean on a defense that has been one of the best in the country this season.  The Seminoles allow just 16.8 points per game, 316 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  They will be up against a Louisville team that also relies heavily on defense, allowing just 20.0 points per game, 317 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.

The Seminoles aren't going to let Rodemaker lose the game for them.  They are going to try and run the football.  Well, the Cardinals are great against the run, allowing 99 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season.  Louisville wants to throw the football, and FSU is great against the pass, allowing just 47.7% completions, 175 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt.

There is better than a 50% chance of rain at Bank of American Stadium in Charlotte, NC for this one that could also help keep this one UNDER the total.  When the stakes are this high, I usually look to back the UNDER, and this matchup definitely fits the bill.

Florida State is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or higher, and 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt.  Louisville is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games after a game where they committed three or more turnovers.  They will be much more careful with the ball this week after a fluky 38-31 loss to Kentucky in which turnovers led to easy scores as they held the Wildcats to just 293 total yards for the game.  That misleading final also has this total inflated this week.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/Texas OVER 55

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall with 48 or more combined points in all nine, and 58 or more combined points in six of those.  So this total of 55 is pretty low for a game involving the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State has really turned up its offense in Big 12 play.  The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in eight of their nine Big 12 games.  They average 33.4 points per game, 471.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  Those numbers would be even better if they even showed up against UCF after beating Oklahoma in a game they were held to just 3 points in.  But they have not been good defensively, allowing 29.7 points per game, 446.3 yards per game and 6.5 per play in Big 12 action this season.

The Texas Longhorns have scored at least 26 points in every game this season and average 35.4 points per game, 478.0 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play in Big 12 play.  Those numbers would be even better if they didn't lose QB Quinn Ewers for 2.5 games against Houston, BYU and Kansas State.

Each of the last five meetings between Oklahoma State and Texas have seen 56 or more combined points.  They have gone for 75, 56, 75, 66 and 73 combined points in the last five meetings.  As you can see, these games are sailing well OVER this 55-point total, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER.  Conditions will be perfect for a shootout too inside the dome at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +15

Oklahoma State is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall and earned its way into the Big 12 Championship.  They are playing on house money now and would love nothing more than to ruin Texas' final season in the Big 12.  They pretty much ruined it for Oklahoma by upsetting them, and now they take their shot at the Longhorns.

This turnaround started with continuity at QB with Alan Bowman and the emergence of RB Ollie Gordon, who has rushed for 1,580 yards and 20 TD while averaging 6.4 per carry this season.  Oklahoma State has really turned up its offense in Big 12 play.  The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in eight of their nine Big 12 games.  They average 33.4 points per game, 471-7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  Those numbers would be even better if they even showed up against UCF after beating Oklahoma in a game they were held to just 3 points in.  That letdown was expected.

But the Cowboys have bounced back nicely since and handled their business with a 43-30 road win as 7-point favorites at Houston with 514 total yards and a 40-34 (OT) win over BYU in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained BYU 503 to 327, or by 176 total yards.  But BYU took advantage of some early turnovers and jumped out to a 24-6 lead.  Oklahoma State could have folded, instead they fought back to take the lead with all the pressure on them of trying to win the game to get to the Big 12 title game.  They fell behind in the 1st OT, but then scored two touchdowns in a row to come up clutch and the defense held in the 2nd OT.  They have to be feeling like they can overcome anything after that comeback, which has been the story of their season.

Texas is overvalued off the blowout win over Texas Tech last week.  But nothing has come easy for the Longhorns outside of that home win plus another home win over BYU down the stretch.  In fact, five of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or less, and if not for a blocked PAT returned for a TD in the 10-point win over Iowa State, it would be five games decided by 7 points or fewer.  That includes narrows road wins over Houston by 7 and TCU by 3, two of the worst teams in the Big 12.  They have been great at home but it has been a different story on the road, and this game will be played on a neutral at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

Each of the last six meetings between Texas and Oklahoma State have been decided by 8 points or less.  In fact, Oklahoma State is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings as underdogs with three outright upsets.  Texas hasn't beaten Oklahoma State by more than 7 points in any of the last eight meetings, making for an 8-0 system backing the Cowboys pertaining to this inflated 15-point spread.

Speaking of 8-0 systems, Oklahoma State is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. excellent teams outscoring opponents by 17-plus points per game on the season and actually outscoring these teams by 4.4 points per game on average.  Mike Gundy has a way of getting his teams to play up to their level of their competition.  The Longhorns have all the pressure on them here of trying to win the Big 12 and make the four-team playoff.  I'll gladly side with the Cowboys playing with nothing to lose.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* New Mexico State/Liberty C-USA Championship No-Brainer on New Mexico State +10.5

The New Mexico State Aggies are 9-1 SU & 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points at Hawaii.  They have pulled off five outright upsets as underdogs during this stretch, including a 31-10 win at Auburn as 25-point dogs.  They avoided the letdown last week and beat Jacksonville State 20-17 as 2.5-point home dogs, which was just as impressive.

Now the Aggies are once again catching too many points against Liberty.  They are a completely different team than the one that lost 33-17 at Liberty as 9-point dogs in their first meeting this season.  That was a 23-17 game at halftime and got out of hand after intermission.  Liberty controlled the ball with 38 minutes compared to 22 for New Mexico State and ran 27 more plays.  It was actually pretty close from a yards per play perspective.  Liberty averaged 6.8 yards per play in that game while New Mexico State averaged 6.8 yards per play as well.

Diego Pavia is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing 61.2% of his passes with a 23-to-8 TD/INT ratio, while also leading the team in rushing with 806 yards and 5 scores on 5.3 per carry.  Pavia gives them a chance to win every game he plays in, and he and the Aggies here are a dangerous, revenge-minded team in this game.  Liberty has all the pressure on them trying to cap off an unbeaten season and possibly a New Year's 6 Bowl.  New Mexico State is playing on house money.

I think the Aggies can make the adjustments to stop the run this time around by stacking the box.  New Mexico State's defensive line has played much better down the stretch.  They allow 127 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry on the season.  They held Auburn to 65 rushing yards on 28 attempts and Jacksonville State to 85 rushing yards on 28 attempts in their last two games.  That's really impressive when you consider Jacksonville State ranks 3rd in the country averaging 231.8 rushing yards per game and Auburn ranks 15th at 196.3 rushing yards per game.  It's safe to say the Aggies are ready to stop the run.  Bet New Mexico State Friday.

20* Seahawks/Cowboys NFC No-Brainer on Dallas -7

FREE TEASERS: I am doing every combination of teasers with the Jaguars, Cowboys and Dolphins this week getting them all below -3 using 6 and 6.5-point teasers.

The Dallas Cowboys are bullies.  They beat up on bad teams and cannot seem to get over the hump against good teams.  While the Seattle Seahawks are 6-5 this season and some would consider them a good team, I consider them a bad team in their current form and another team that the Cowboys are going to beat up on.

The Cowboys are 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS this season with a ridiculous seven wins by 20 points or more.  That includes 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS at home this season where they are scoring 41.0 points per game and allowing just 12.0 points per game, outscoring opponents by 29.0 points per game.

The Cowboys just blasted the Commanders 45-10 on Thanksgiving Night while the Seahawks were losing 31-13 at home to the 49ers despite getting a Pick 6 in that game for their lone touchdown.  Their offense didn't score and has been broken the last two weeks, also managing just 16 points in a loss to the Rams.  They have a recent common opponent in the Commanders.  While the Cowboys won by 35, the Seahawks needed a last-second FG to beat Washington three weeks ago.

The Cowboys won't be taking the Seahawks lightly because they know there's a good chance that if they win this game and the Eagles lose to the 49ers this week, they'll be playing the Eagles for first place in the NFC East next week.  The Seahawks have struggled when they have stepped up in class recently with a 37-3 loss at Baltimore and that 31-13 loss to San Francisco.  Dallas is just a notch below those two teams, but it's close.

Geno Smith isn't healthy and is a below average QB as it is, and he and the Seahawks will get exposed again this week.  Smith averages under 4 yards per attempt against man-to-man defense and over 8 yards per attempt against zone this season.  Dallas runs as much man-to-man defense as any team in the NFL.

Dallas is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS as a favorite this season.  Dak Prescott is 30-11-1 ATS in his last 42 starts as a favorite of 6 points or more.  The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a division game, so they don't let down in these spots.  Seattle is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the second half of the season.  Bet the Cowboys Thursday.

20* Bears/Vikings ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago +3.5

The Chicago Bears just got Justin Fields back last week and he makes all the difference for them.  They blew a double-digit lead in the final four minutes to the Lions in a 26-31 defeat as 8-point underdogs on the road.  The fact that they took the Lions to the wire says all you need to know about this team's potential.

Fields went 16-of-23 passing for 169 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 104 yards on 18 attempts.  He is so dynamic with his ability to run, and he has formed a great chemistry with DJ Moore on the outside.  The Bears will have no problem getting back up off the mat from that tough loss to the Lions considering this is a Monday Night Football game on National TV against another division opponnent in the Bears.

But the biggest reason the Bears are undervalued right now is their improvement on defense over the last several weeks.  They have held four of their last seven opponents to 20 points or fewer.  They are allowing just 276.5 yards per game in their last six games, which would rate as one of the top defenses in the entire NFL.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Vikings.  They just had their 5-game winning streak come to an end with a 1-point loss at Denver.  It's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice because they controlled the game most the way but blew it late.  The Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, so you are definitely paying a tax on them now.

The Bears want revenge from a 19-13 home loss to the Vikings on October 15th in their first meeting this season.  Fields got injured in that game which made all the difference.  The Bears held the Vikings to just 220 total yards and they still nearly pulled off the upset even with Tyson Bageant having to come in and turning it over three times.

The Bears are probably the healthiest team in the NFL right now with only four players on the injury report.  I always look to back healthy teams late in the season and fade teams with a ton of injuries.  It's rare for a team to be as healthy as the Bears are this late in the year.  Bet the Bears Monday.

20* Ravens/Chargers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore -4

The Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the NFL if it's not the San Francisco 49ers.  Both have the most elite numbers in the NFL right now.  The Ravens' last seven losses with Lamar Jackson at QB they had a 4th quarter lead and were 75% or better to win the game.  They could be on a crazy unbeaten streak if not for some bad variance late in games.

The down to down success is the most predictable, and the Ravens are thriving this season.  They average 27.6 points per game, 366.5 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play while allowing just 16.1 points per game, 273.5 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  They are outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game and outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play this season.

The Chargers have a decent offense with Justin Herbert, but he is missing several key weapons and drops have been an issue for his receivers.  Herbert is forced every week to try and win shootouts because the defense just cannot get stops.  The Chargers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing 23.8 points per game, 393.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. They rank 31st in the NFL in total defense and 29th in yards per play allowed.

We've seen what the Chargers are defensively when they face a legit offense, like two weeks ago when they allowed 41 points and 533 total yards to the Lions.  The Ravens beat the Lions 38-6 earlier this season.  Even last week the Chargers allowed the Packers to have a break out offensive performance with 397 total yards against them.  The Packers were a previously dead offense but got right against the Chargers.  

The Ravens can name their number against this pitiful Chargers defense.  They are even worse off now after losing arguably their most important defensive player in Joey Bosa to a foot injury against the Packers.  He is doubtful to play this week.  The Ravens have scored at least 31 points in five consecutive games now, and if they get to 31 here they are going to cover this 4-point spread.  They are going to get to 31 if not more.

The Chargers have zero home-field advantage and there will likely be more Ravens fans attending this game than Chargers fans.  The Ravens also have the rest advantage after playing the Bengals on Thursday, so they have three extra days to rest and prepare for the Chargers.  John Harbaugh is 9-2 ATS in road games vs. a marginal losing team that wins 40-49% of their games as the coach of Baltimore.  Bet the Ravens Sunday night.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Texans OVER 45.5

The Houston Texans are a dead nuts OVER team.  CJ Stroud is one of the best rookie QB's we've ever seen and he's living up to it week after week.  Let's look at their last three weeks.  They scored 39 points and had 496 total yards against the Bucs, scored 30 points and had 544 total yards against the Bengals and then they had 419 total yards against the Cardinals last week and would have scored more if not for 3 INT from Stroud inside the Arizona 25-yard line.

But because that game stayed under the total against the Cardinals when it should have gone way over after 31 combined points at halftime, we are getting great value with the OVER this week against the Jaguars.  Not one of those passes by Stroud that were intercepted were bad throws, they were mostly just bad breaks off receivers' hands.  He had only thrown 2 INT all season up to that point.  RB Devin Singletary has rushed for over 100 yards in consecutive games for the first time in his career.  This Houston offense is humming.

The Jaguars just put together their best offensive performance of the season last week against a very good Tennessee defense.  They had 34 points and 389 total yards as Trevor Lawrence totaled four touchdowns passing and rushing.  The Jaguars are primed for one of their best offensive outputs of the season against a Houston defense that gave up 37 points to a bad Bucs offense and 27 points to the Bengals.  The Texans are pretty banged up defensively right now.

In their first meeting this season. Houston beat Jacksonville 37-17 for 54 combined points that easily topped this 45.5-point total.  The Texans had 366 total yards and took their foot off the gas in the 2H with it wrapped up.  The Jaguars had 404 total yards and deserved to score more than they did.  They will have similar success moving the football in the rematch.

Doug Pederson is 9-1 OVER in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as a head coach.  I love the OVER in this matchup of two teams that are hitting their stride on offense right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -120

I love the spot for the Indianapolis Colts.  They are coming off their bye week following a win over the Patriots in Germany that got them to 5-5 on the season and very much in the playoff hunt.  They will come out of the bye rested, ready to go and highly motivated to make the playoffs.

Bye weeks are even more beneficial to first-year head coaches like Shane Steichen.  The players on this team love this guy because he is a great offensive mind, and I expect the Colts to have plenty of new wrinkles to unleash on the Tampa Bay Bucs this week.

The Bucs had their bye back on October 8th and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  They are starting to run out of gas and the injuries are starting to pile up.  They lost 27-14 at San Francisco last week and now have a lot of traveling to do prior to facing the Colts.  They travel from San Francisco back to Tampa and then up to Indianapolis.  They won't be nearly as prepared as the Colts for this one.

The injuries are really piling up on defense for the Bucs.  They lost three starters that exited the game against the 49ers and didn't return last week.  That includes LB Lavonte David, CB Jamel Dean and CB Carlton Davis III.  The Colts should feast on this short-handed defense similar to what CJ Stroud and the Texans did to them and Brock Purdy did to them.  Purdy went 21-of-25 passing for 305 yards while Stroud went 30-of-42 passing for 443 yards on the Bucs.

The Colts have gotten healthier on defense and are playing better holding their last two opponents to an average 9.5 points per game.  They should be even healthier coming out of the bye.  Now they get to face one of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Bucs, who are scoring 19.2 points per game, averaging 304.7 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  The Bucs rank 23rd in scoring, 22nd in total offense and 22nd in yards per play.  They allow 6.0 yards per play on defense, so they are getting outgained by 0.9 yards per play and legitimately one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Colts are undervalued right now because nobody believes they deserve to be 5-5 and .500 on the season.  But the numbers clearly tell a different story.  The Colts average 5.4 yards per play on offense and 5.4 yards per play on defense, breaking dead even in yards per play margin.  YPP is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is, and the Colts have been 0.9 YPP better than the Bucs this season.  We're getting the better team in the much better stop off the bye as basically a PK at home.  Sign me up.  Bet the Colts on the Money Line Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa State +10

As of this writing, Kansas State is still alive for a Big 12 Championship.  But by the time this game kicks off at 8:00 EST Saturday night, the Wildcats will realize they have been eliminated.  They are tied with Oklahoma State and Oklahoma for 2nd place in the Big 12.  Oklahoma State and Oklahoma both hold tiebreakers over Kansas State.

Oklahoma hosts TCU on Friday and is a double-digit favorite.  Oklahoma State hosts BYU earlier Saturday afternoon and is a 17-point favorite.  Both of those teams aren't going to lose, which is what it would take for Kansas State to still be alive by the time this game kicks off.  I don't think we get a fully focused Kansas State team as a result, and I think they'll let Iowa State hang around.

The Cyclones are good enough to hang around, anyway.  They are 6-5 this season with four of their five losses coming by 10 points or less.  It should be four one-score losses but they had a PAT blocked and returned for 2 by Texas last week that turned a 7-point loss into a 10-point loss.  I'm still bitter about it because I had Iowa State and they should have covered.

But that loss to Texas provides us extra line value on the Cyclones this week.  They are a double-digit dog for only the 2nd time all season with the other coming at Oklahoma.  I like how this team is playing down the stretch going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last four games overall with all four wins coming by double-digits, and both losses going down to the wire to Kansas and Texas.

Kansas State was lucky to beat Kansas and their 3rd-string QB last week.  They were outgained 396 to 356 by the Jayhawks, or by 40 yards.  They gave up 234 rushing yards to Kansas and Iowa State will have success on the ground here, which will open up things for QB Rocco Becht.

The Cyclones want revenge from a 10-9 home loss to Kansas State last year.  The Wildcats got one big play and that was it.  Kansas State cannot seem to get margin on Iowa State.  In fact, the Wildcats haven't won any of their last nine meetings with the Cyclones by more than 10 points.  That makes for a 9-0 system backing the Cyclones pertaining to this 10-point spread.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina +7

The South Carolina Gamecocks played the toughest schedule in the entire country through their first eight games and the result was a 2-6 start.  They have finally gotten a break in the schedule and have made the most of it, winning their last three games to get within one win of bowl eligibility.  Now they'll be highly motivated to finish the job here at home against Clemson and pull off the upset to get that coveted 6th victory.

Clemson has also handled its business here down the stretch going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  But all three of those games were at home.  Now the Tigers have to hit the road where they have struggled this season.  Clemson is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games with their lone win coming at Syracuse.  They lost 28-7 to Duke, 28-20 to Miami and 24-17 at NC State in their other three road games.

South Carolina has played its best football at home.  All five of their wins have come at home as they are 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS at Williams-Brice Stadium.  Their lone loss came by 2 points to Florida.  I fully expect if they lose this game it will not be by more than one score, so there's value with the Gamecocks catching more than a touchdown.

South Carolina pulled the 31-30 upset as 14-point road dogs at Clemson last season.  Spencer Rattler threw for 360 yards in the win and will have another big game here.  Clemson is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 7 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (South Carolina) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington State +16.5

The whole world bet against Washington last week and lost with Oregon State.  Now is the time to fade Washington after such a big win over the Beavers when everyone was picking against them.  This is a flat spot for them off the Oregon State win and with Oregon on deck in the Pac-12 Championship since they already clinched.

At the very least, it's going to be tough for Washington to get margin and pull away from Washington State enough to cover this lofty 16.5-point spread.  The Huskies haven't been getting margin on anyone of late.  In fact, each of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or fewer.  That includes games against Stanford (42-33) and Arizona State (15-7), two of the worst teams in the Pac-12.

This is the National Championship Game for Washington State.  The Cougars will put everything into winning this game against their hated rivals.  They come in with a ton of confidence after blasting Colorado 56-14 on Friday night last week, so they get an extra day to rest and prepare for this one.

Getting margin on the Cougars has been very difficult for their opponents.  Despite their 5-6 record, the Cougars only have one loss by more than 14 points this season.  They gave Oregon all they wanted in a 24-38 road loss as 19.5-point road underdogs, proving they can play with anyone as Oregon is looked at as the best team in the Pac-12.  They know they can play with Washington, too.

The Cougars will never be out of this game with an offense that puts up 32.6 points per game, 6.0 yards per play and 338 passing yards per game and 8.1 per attempt.  Washington has allowed over 300 passing yards on three occasions this season and allows 260 passing yards per game.  They struggle to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  Washington State QB Cam Ward will keep his team in this game for four quarters.  He is completing 66.7% of his passes for 3,415 yards with a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for eight scores on the ground.  Bet Washington State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Old Dominion -2.5

Old Dominion has battled to get to 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They just went on the road and upset Georgia Southern 20-17 as 5-point dogs last week.  Now they are back home here with a chance to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility.

While the Monarchs will be max motivated to get this win and a bowl, Georgia State has questionable motivation at best.  The Panthers had a promising start to the season at 6-1, but they have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS since and were non-competitive in all four games.  They lost by 17 at Georgia Southern, by 28 at home to James Madison, by 28 at home to Appalachian State and by 42 at LSU.  I think these players have quit on head coach Shawn Elliott.  I don't think they show up at all here Saturday.

Old Dominion has played some of the best teams in the Sun Belt down to the wire.  They only lost 30-27 at James Madison as 20-point dogs and upset Appalachian State 28-21 as 6-point home dogs.  Appalachian State just beat James Madison last week.  They can play with anyone in this conference, and they can certainly beat a middle-of-the-pack team here in Georgia State.

Georgia State needs to be able to run the football to be successful because they are a suspect passing team.  Well, despite playing a brutal schedule, Old Dominion only allows 3.8 yards per carry this season.  They are holding opponents to 0.7 per carry below their season averages.  Georgia State has by far the worst defense in this matchup.  They allow 6.5 yards per play on the season while Old Dominion only allows 5.5 yards per play.  Georgia State is only slightly better than ODU on offense.  The Monarchs should be favored by more because they are the better team, they're at home and they're the much more motivated team.  Bet Old Dominion Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State +6.5

The Ball State Cardinals have been grossly undervalued for weeks.  They continue to play with pride despite being eliminated from bowl contention.  They are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 7 to Toledo as 17.5-point dogs and by 3 to Bowling Green as 4.5-point dogs.  They also upset Central Michigan 24-17 as 5.5-point dogs, upset Northern Illinois 20-17 as 9-point dogs and crushed Kent State 34-3 as 10-point favorites.

Now it's revenge time for the Cardinals.  They were 5-6 last year and playing Miami Ohio with both at 5-6 and trying to get bowl eligible in the season finale.  They blew a 14-3 halftime lead and lost 18-17 to the Redhawks last year.  They have not forgotten, and they will get their revenge here with an outright victory, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

Miami Ohio is going to be flat as a pancake in this one.  They already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game against Toledo.  They could care less about winning this game.  The priority is to stay healthy and fresh for that game against Toledo next week, not to beat Ball State.

Miami Ohio has been fortunate in close games and has taken advantage of a weak schedule.  They have played the 129th-ranked schedule in the country while Ball State has played the 108th.  Their offense makes it hard for them to get margin.  They average 345 yards per game against teams that average allowing 379 yards per game, being held to 34 yards per game less than their season average.  Ball State has a very good defense that allows 326 yards per game and 5.3 per play and will hold Miami Ohio in check again.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Ball State) - after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent off two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Ball State) - after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Ball State Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Texas Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +13.5

Texas has all the pressure on them right now.  They are trying to win out to make the college football playoff.  They haven't contender for a national championship for a long time, so there is a ton of pressure on them right now.  They are handling it will so far, but they have also been very fortunate in close games here of late.

Indeed, the Longhorns have seen five of their last six games decided by 10 points or fewer.  The lone exception was their win over BYU, which is probably the worst team in the Big 12.  They only beat Houston by 7, K-State by 3, TCU by 3 and Iowa State by 10 while losing by 4 to Oklahoma.  It should be five one-score games in their last six considering Iowa State had a PAT blocked and returned for 2 points by Texas, turning a 7-point game into a 10-point game and costing Cyclones backers the cover.

Texas just lost star RB Jonathan Brooks to a season-ending injury two weeks ago against TCU.  He has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.1 per carry, while also catching 25 balls for 286 yards and a score.  Backup CJ Baxter averages just 4.7 per carry and is a big downgrade.  Plus, leading receiver Xavier Worthy got injured in the win over Iowa State last week and was removed from the game.  He is very questionable to play this week.  That would be a big blow considering Worthy leads the team with 63 receptions, 834 yards and 4 TD.

Texas Tech has been a dangerous team with a healthy Behren Morton at QB.  He is completing 63.3% of his passes for 1,410 yards with a 12-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for three scores.  Well, he has been healthy here down the stretch and it has led to a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS run with wins over TCU, Kansas and UCF.  They have now clinched a bowl at 6-5 and have no pressure on them, so they will be pulling out all the stops to try and knock off Texas.

Last year, Texas Tech beat Texas 37-34 as 7-point home dogs, and now they are catching 13.5 points in the rematch on the road.  There was nothing fluky about that win as Texas Tech racked up 479 total yards and outgained Texas by 53 yards in that contest.  I like this Texas Tech defense, which allows 5.4 yards per play this season.  To compare, Texas allows 5.2 yards per play, so they have only been slightly better.

Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 475 or more yards last game.  Texas is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 home games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games. The Longhorns may get lucky and win another close game, but they aren't going to win by two-plus touchdowns to beat us.  Bet Texas Tech Friday.

15* UTSA/Tulane AAC ANNIHILATOR on UTSA +3.5

The UTSA Roadrunners won Conference USA each of the last two seasons.  Now they are trying to show that they are the best team in their new conference in the American Athletic.  I think they are the best team outside SMU, and they prove it here this week against Tulane.

UTSA has been hitting on all cylinders since getting a healthy Frank Harris back at QB.  He has an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio since Week 9 and he means everything to this team.  The Roadrunners are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in AAC play.  They are scoring 41.0 points per game, averaging 464.6 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play, while allowing 22.1 points per game, 364.3 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.

Tulane is also 7-0 but 2-5 ATS and has been fortunate to win some of these close games against bad teams.  Tulane is averaging 27.4 points per game, 403.3 yards per game and 6.2 per play in conference play while allowing 20.0 points per game, 342.6 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  UTSA has the better numbers, and that's especially the case when you compare common opponents.

UTSA is 5-0 against common opponents of Tulane.  They are scoring 37.8 points per game and allowing 20.0 points per game in those five games.  Tulane is scoring 27.4 points per game and allowing 19.4 points per game against those same five opponents.  So it's clear these defenses are pretty even, but UTSA has far and away the better offense.

Tulane only won 24-22 as a 24-point home favorite over Tulsa, 13-10 as a 17-point road favorite at ECU, 30-28 as a 10-point favorite at Rice and 35-28 as a 20.5-point home favorite over North Texas.  That's four one-score games against four of the worst teams in the conference.  Their luck runs out this week against a legit team in UTSA.

Plays on road teams (UTSA) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7-plus games after scoring 42 points or more last game are 24-3 (88.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  UTSA gets and extra day of rest and preparation after hosting USF last Friday, while Tulane had to travel to face FAU on Saturday.  That's a nice little hidden edge for the Roadrunners.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet UTSA Friday.

25* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Dolphins -6.5

This was a good early grab on the Dolphins -6.5 as soon as this line came out on Sunday.  It is a 25* at -7 or better, a 20* at -7.5 to -9.5 and a 15* at -10 or worse at this point.  I already expected this line to climb, but then the Jets announced they were going to start Tim Boyle over Zach Wilson on Monday, and it shot up to -9.5 and -10 in some places.

The Jets are desperate at this point because they have scored a total of 9 offensive touchdowns in 10 games.  They know they should have traded for a QB because they just don't have any good options on the roster.  Boyle is actually a downgrade from Zach Wilson.  Boyle had a 1-to-13 TD/INT ratio at UConn, an 11-to-13 TD/INT ratio at Eastern Kentucky and currently has a 3-to-8 TD/INT ratio in the NFL to this point.  That's 17 TD and 32 INT in his career dating back to college.

It's safe to say Boyle and this Jets offense won't be able to keep up with Miami's No. 1 ranked offensive in the entire NFL.  The Dolphins are scoring 30.5 points per game, averaging 434 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play.  The Chiefs and Raiders held them in check the last two weeks, which is keeping this line lower than it should be.  But the Chiefs are holding everyone in check, and the Dolphins shot themselves in the foot against the Raiders.  They didn't have to punt on any of their first nine possessions of that game and left a ton of points on the board with three turnovers and getting stopped on downs.  The Raiders didn't stop them as they had 422 total yards.

But while this Miami offense has hit the skids in recent weeks, this Miami defense has picked up the slack.  Jalen Ramsey already has three interceptions in two games since returning from injury.  They held the Chiefs to 14 points and 267 yards and the Raiders to 13 points and 296 yards.  Vic Fangio now has all the players in place that he needs to run his aggressive, proven scheme.  Don't be surprised if Miami's defense scores for us in this one against Boyle.

No question the Jets have a great defense, but they are getting tired from being on the field too much.  I think we saw a little quit in them last week in their 32-6 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 393 total yards to the Bills in that contest.  Now they have to come back on a short week and are a tired defense, and a tired team in general playing for a 5th consecutive week.  The Dolphins had their bye prior to facing the Raiders last week so they should still be very fresh, which is a huge advantage on this short week.

New York head coach Robert Saleh is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on a short week as the head coach of the Jets.  New York is 11-22 ATS in its last 33 vs AFC East opponents.  Tua is 9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more.  Bet the Dolphins Friday.

15* Miami/Boston College ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston College +9

I really question Miami's motivation and their physical and mental state going into this regular season finale against Boston College.  What started out as a promising season with a win over Texas A&M and hopes of winning the ACC has turned into a disaster.  It all unraveled for Miami when they didn't take a knee and lost to Georgia Tech.

The Hurricanes have gone 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last five games overall with both wins coming by 8 points or less, so they haven't covered this kind of number in any of their last seven games.  They are coming off three consecutive losses in high-profile games.  They lost 20-6 at NC State, 27-20 at Florida State and 38-31 to Louisville.  After falling just short against FSU and Louisville, two national title contenders, they won't be nearly as excited to face Boston College this week.

Boston College will have no problem getting up to face Miami.  I also like the spot for Boston College because they get extra rest here after playing Pittsburgh on Thursday last week.  So they get two more days of rest than Miami will on this short week for the Hurricanes.  That's a big advantage and probably worth a couple points.  Sometimes you just have to play the spot, and this is one of those times.

Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  Miami is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite.  The Hurricanes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after going over the total in their previous game.  The Hurricanes are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games when playing with 6 or fewer days' rest.  Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team that allows a 58% completion percentage or worse.  Bet Boston College Friday.

15* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +11.5

Memphis just suffered their dream crusher loss in a 38-34 home loss to SMU that eliminated them from AAC Championship contention.  They will fall flat on their faces this week and probably lose this game outright to Temple now.  We'll take the points with the Owls as a result.

Temple has been so much more competitive when QB EJ Warner has been healthy.  Warner is completing 57.7% of his passes for 2,746 yards with a 21-to-11 TD/INT ratio.  He returned against Navy three weeks ago and threw for 402 yards and 4 TD.  He threw for 280 yards and 3 TD against USF two weeks ago.  And he threw for 323 yards and 2 TD against UAB last week.  Temple was competitive in all three games.

Memphis just has a way of playing in close games.  In fact, eight of Memphis' last nine games have been decided by 10 points or fewer.  The lone exception was their 45-21 win over UAB that came against a backup QB for UAB due to injury.  It was also a misleading final as UAB actually outgained them 381 to 358 but was -4 in turnovers.

The reason Memphis struggles to get margin is because their defense is awful.  They have allowed 38 points or more in four consecutive games.  They allow 34.9 points per game, 464 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play in conference play.  Those are numbers very similar to Temple.  I think the Owls can keep up in a shootout, and they will never be out of this one due to Memphis' leaky defense.  Bet Temple Friday.

20* Iowa/Nebraska Big Ten No-Brainer on Nebraska -1

I love the spot for the Nebraska Cornhuskers this week.  They need one more win to get bowl eligible.  That only adds to their motivation to beat their biggest rivals in the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They lost by 3 to Michigan State, by 3 to Maryland and in OT to Wisconsin in their last three games but were -6 in turnovers in those three games and easily could have won all three.  This is a much better team than their 5-6 record would indicate.  They aren't going to pack it in now.

Conversely, Iowa is a much worse team than its 9-2 record would indicate.  They are actually getting outgained by 34 yards per game on the season despite playing a very soft schedule.  They have the worst offense in the country averaging 247.5 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play.  Compare that to Nebraska, which averages 317.9 yards per game and 5.2 per play.

But the biggest reason to back Nebraska is because Iowa is in a massive letdown spot here.  They just clinched a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game by beating Illinois last week.  They will be looking ahead to that game, and they won't put nearly as much emphasis into beating Nebraska as they normally would.  They want to stay healthy to try and give a good effort in that game after getting blown out pretty much every time they have won the Big Ten West in recent years.  They will get blown out again in that game, but first they are going to fall to Nebraska Friday.

After four straight heartbreaking losses to Iowa by one score in all four, the Huskers finally broke through with a 24-17 win at Iowa last year.  They deserved to win every one of those one-score games and finally got one.  That will give them a lot of confidence that they can do it again this year with that monkey off their back and a 7-game losing streak to Iowa in the rearview.

Nebraska has been through three different quarterbacks this season due to injury.  They may have found their best QB against Wisconsin last week in Chuba Purdy.  He completed 15-of-24 passes for 169 yards with one TD and one INT, while also rushing for 105 yards and a score on 14 carries.  He gives them a great chance to win if he starts again this week, and whoever is under center will be better than Iowa's Deacon Hill, who is completing 49.7% of his passes and averaging just 5.1 per attempt.

Iowa needs to be able to run the ball to be successful.  Well, they aren't going to be able to run on Nebraska's stout run defense.  The Huskers allow just 87 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry, holding opponents to 45 rushing yards per game and 1.1 per carry less than their season averages.  Nebraska is the better rushing team averaging 187 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry and will win the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one.  That will be the difference, plus their edge in motivation.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

15* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West BAILOUT on San Francisco -4.5

The San Francisco 49ers are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS when healthy this season and 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS when not healthy.  By healthy I mean having both Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel on the field at the same time.  They came out of the bye healthy, and the offense has been humming again.

The 49ers beat the Jaguars 34-3 and hung 437 total yards on a very good Jacksonville defense out of the bye.  They followed it up with a 27-14 win over the Bucs last week and had 420 total yards in the win.  Brock Purdy has been flawless to prove his doubters wrong, and it will continue this week against the Seattle Seahawks.

The 49ers will be the fresher team because they recently had a bye.  The Seahawks are gassed because they had their bye on October 8th and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week and on a short week.  What makes them even more gassed is just how many of their games have gone down to the wire since the bye.  Four of their last six games have been decided by 4 points or less.  That includes their 29-26 win over Washington on a last-second FG, and their 17-16 loss to the Rams last week where they missed a last-second FG that would have won it.  I don't trust them from a physical or mental state on this short week.

The 49ers have had no problem covering against the Seahawks in recent meetings.  They won 27-7 in their first meeting last year, 21-13 in their 2nd meeting last year, and 41-23 in the playoffs last year.  They dominated the box score in all three games.  They averaged 419 yards per game and allowed just 275 yards per game to the Seahawks, outgaining them by 144 yards per game.  They have outgained them by at least 104 yards in all three meetings.

The Seahawks are getting outgained by 19 yards per game on the season and are fortunate to be 6-4.  The 49ers are outgaining opponents by 84 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play.  The are elite and the best team in the NFL in my opinion.  The other team right alongside them is the Ravens, and the Seahawks were blasted 37-3 at Baltimore a few weeks ago.  They gave up 515 yards to the Ravens and were held to 151, getting outgained by a whopping 366 yards.

Seattle QB Geno Smith hurt his arm and was knocked out of the game against the Rams.  He did come back in for the final drive and may play in this one, but he won't be 100%.  RB Kennetch Walker is doubtful for this one.  These injuries are starting to pile up again for the Seahawks, and they stand no chance of being competitive with the 49ers at anything less than full strength.

Road favorites are 24-1 SU & 19-6 ATS in their last 25 tries on Thanksgiving Day.  Seattle is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the 2nd half of the season.  San Francisco is 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in its last nine games vs. division opponents.  Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after rushing for 75 or fewer yards last game.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

20* Commanders/Cowboys NFC Afternoon FEAST on OVER 46

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They are very pass-happy and up-tempo on offense and they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  That's an OVER bettors' dream in the NFL, and we'll play this game accordingly.

The Commanders are 3-1 OVER in their last four games overall, and their game against the Patriots that stayed under should have went over.  They had 37 combined points with a total of 40.5 with 1:52 remaining in the 3rd quarter.  Neither team scored again.

The Commanders lost 31-38 to Philadelphia for 69 combined points.  They had 472 total yards against the Eagles.  They had 432 total yards against the Patriots.  The lost to the Seahawks 29-26 for 55 combined points and gave up 489 total yards to the Seahawks.  Then last week they lost 31-19 to the Giants for 50 combined points.  That's Tommy Devito and the Giants, who they allowed 31 points to.  But they also had 403 total yards in the loss and probably should have scored a lot more if they didn't turn it over six times.

The Cowboys are rolling offensively.  In their last four games, they had 43 points against the Rams, 406 total yards against the Eagles, 49 points against the Giants and 33 points against the Panthers.  They will hang another big number on what is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Commanders in their current form.  Their defense has struggled when they have actually been tested.  They gave up 42 points and 421 total yards to the 49ers and 28 points to the Eagles.  They will get tested by Sam Howell and this underrated Washington offense.

Ron Rivera is 20-2 OVER as a road underdog of 7 points or more as a head coach.  Rivera is 11-1 OVER as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as a head coach.  Rivera is 9-0 OVER in road games after losing six or seven of his last eight games as a head coach.  Rivera is 8-0 OVER in road games vs. elite offensive teams that score 29 points or more as a head coach.  Mike McCarthy is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. a team with a losing record in the second half of the season as the head coach of Dallas.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Packers/Lions NFC Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL averaging 27.2 points per game, 399.6 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They have combined for 77 points with the Chargers and 57 points with the Bears in their last two games coming in.  This 44.5-point total is a very low total for a game involving the Lions.

The Lions are showing how scary good they can be offensively when healthy in recent weeks.  They put up 26 points and 486 total yards on the Raiders, 41 points and 533 total yards on the Chargers and 31 points on an improving Bears defense the last three weeks.  But their defense has shown a lot of holes lately.  They allowed 38 points and 421 total yards to the Chargers and 26 points and 334 total yards to the Bears.

The Packers are showing signs of life on offense in recent weeks.  They had 391 total yards against the Rams, 399 total yards against the Steelers and 397 total yards against the Chargers in their last three games.  They can get things going against this Detroit defense again, and their defense has been far from spectacular.  The Chargers should have scored a lot more points on them last week than they did, but they had a ton of drops.  They should have scored 30-plus points on the Packers.

Detroit beat Green Bay 34-20 in the first meeting this season for 54 combined points.  That game was in Green Bay outdoors in tougher conditions.  This game will be indoors, and both offenses will thrive in the dome in Detroit.  The Packers are likely losing their most important defender in De'Vondre Campbell for this one.  They could also be without Jaire Alexander.

Detroit is 6-0 OVER in its last six games following a win by 6 points or less.  Jordan Love is going to have to throw the ball a ton to try and keep up with this Detroit offense that is scoring 30.0 points per game at home this season.  They'll likely have to abandon the run early in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Eagles/Chiefs ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +3

The Philadelphia Eagles want revenge from their 38-35 loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.  They got some bad whistles in that game and deserved to win.  They outgained the Chiefs 417 to 340, or by 77 total yards.  It was probably Jalen Hurts' best game of his career to boot, and you know he wants some revenge here.

But a big reason I like the Eagles here is the weather report.  There is a 75% chance of rain with 15-20 MPH winds expected.  So it's going to favor the team that runs the football better.  Well, the Eagles are the better running team with the better run defense.  The Chiefs have been vulnerable against the run and haven't been able to establish a consistent rushing attack.

The Eagles rank 8th in rushing at 129.7 yards per game while the Chiefs rank 19th at 103.8 yards per game.  The Eagles are 1st in the NFL at stopping the run allowing 66.3 yards per game, while the Chiefs are 17th at 112.2 yards per game allowed.  The Eagles are also 5th allowing just 3.7 yards per carry while the Chiefs are 29th allowing 4.5 yards per carry.

This Kansas City offense is really broken this season.  They have managed 14 points or fewer in three of their last four games with the 21 they scored on the Dolphins coming with an asterisk because 7 of those came from a defensive touchdown.  The Eagles will focus on stopping Travic Kelce just like everyone else has recently, and that formula has really worked in stopping the Chiefs because Mahomes doesn't trust his other receivers.

The Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games.  Plays against home favorites (Kansas City) - after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game against an opponent that has gained 7 or more passing yards per attempt in three consecutive games are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Eagles Monday.

25* NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams +2

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week.  They are coming off their bye week and are as healthy as they have been all season.  QB Matthew Stafford will return from injury, as will LB ERnest Jones and RT Rob Havenstein.  The Rams are primed for a big effort to try and get back into the playoff hunt.  

I love backing teams that are pissed off going into their bye week because they usually take it more seriously and make it a chance to improve instead of relax.  It worked for the 49ers last week and I was all over them coming off three straight losses going into their bye.  They crushed the Jaguars 34-3.  The Rams are off three consecutive losses as well and will crush the Seahawks for the 2nd time this season.

The Rams beat the Seahawks 30-13 on the road in the season opener.  There was nothing fluky about that win as the Rams outgained the Seahawks 426 to 180, or by 246 total yards.  And the Rams didn't have Cooper Kupp in that game.  The Rams simply own the Seahawks, going 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and a couple of those include close losses last season when they didn't have Stafford.  They have dominated the Seahawks with a healthy Stafford or Jared Goff.  Sean McVay owns Pete Carroll.

I question how much the Seahawks have left in the tank here.  They have played five consecutive weeks and were in dog fights in four of those five games.  They are coming off a 29-26 home win over the Washington Commanders needing a last-second FG to beat them.  They needed a last-second TD to beat the Browns and PJ Walker three weeks ago, and they were blasted 37-3 at Baltimore two weeks ago.

The Seahawks are 6-3 this season but have played the 3rd-easiest schedule in the NFL.  The Rams have played the 4th-toughest schedule in the NFL.  The win in Week 2 over the Lions was legit, but the Seahawks' other five wins have come against the Panthers, Giants, Cardinals, Commanders and the Browns with Walker.  When they have stepped up in class they have struggled.

Seattle is actually getting outgained on the season by 23 yards per game, so their 6-3 record is pretty fraudulent.  They have also been outscored on the season.  I think they are getting too much respect here being favored on the road, and I'll gladly back the home dog that I believe to be the better team with a massive rest and preparation advantage.  Plus, the Rams own the Seahawks.  Seattle could easily be looking ahead to the game against San Francisco on Thanksgiving that will likely decide the division.  They could try and conserve some energy for that contest instead, while the Rams will be 'all in' for a win here.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Bears/Lions OVER 46

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team when playing in a controlled environment like their dome and on turf.  They are scoring 26.8 points per game and averaging 406.4 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play as one of the top offenses in the NFL.  They are going to hang a big number on the Chicago Bears to lead the way in cashing this OVER.

We saw what this Detroit offense could do when fully healthy at the skill positions last week as they hung 41 points and 533 total yards on the Chargers.  But they were life and death with the Chargers because their defense couldn't get a stop, allowing 38 points in a game that saw 77 combined points last week.  The Bears will have success against their defense as well.

Chicago gets Justin Fields back at QB this week and he's a dead nuts OVER QB.  They could also have RB Khalil Herbert back this week, tho D'Onta Foreman has been just fine in his place.  They have been without Fields for the past 4.5 games and their offense has struggled without him.  Prior to that, they scored 40 points and hung 451 total yards on the Commanders after scoring 28 points with 471 yards against the Broncos the game prior.

This was a very high-scoring series last year with the Bears and Lions combining for 61 and 51 points in their two meetings.  It will be more of the same in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC TOTAL OF THE DAY on Raiders/Dolphins OVER 47.5

The Miami Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL.  They are averaging 31.7 points per game, 435.3 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play this season.  The OVER is 3-1 in Dolphins four home games this season with all four seeing 47 or more combined points, and that even includes games against three of the worst offenses in the NFL in the Giants, Panthers and Patriots.  Miami home games are averaging 62.0 combined points per game this season.

The Dolphins are going to hang a big number on the Raiders today to lead the way to us cashing the OVER.  Aiden O'Connell seems like an OVER QB for the Raiders much more so than Jimmy G and Brian Hoyer.  O'Connell is more of a gunslinger and he will be unleashed in this game Sunday.  He won't have the benefit of trying to protect a lead like he has the last two weeks.

The Raiders played the Giants and Tommy DeVito and the Jets and Zach Wilson the last two weeks.  The last time they played a legit offense was the game prior when they gave up 486 total yards to the Lions.  They will have to play hurry-up on offense this week to try and keep up with the Dolphins while trailing.  I think they can score enough points to help contribute to us cashing this OVER, plus O'Connell is going to make some mistakes and set up short fields and easy scoring opportunities for the Dolphins as well.

Miami is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 games after going under the total in its previous game.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Dolphins.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Miami Dolphins -12

I love the spot for the Miami Dolphins this week.  They are coming off their bye week following a tough loss to the Chiefs in Germany in a game they proved they belonged with the top teams in this league finally.  They outgained the Chiefs and held them to just 267 total yards, but the difference was a fluky fumble that was returned for a TD in a 7-point victory by the Chiefs.

The Dolphins have struggled against the top teams in the NFL, but they have beaten up on everyone else, especially at home.  The Dolphins are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season with all four wins coming by 14 points or more.  They are scoring 43.5 points per game, averaging 516 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play at home while allowing just 18.5 points per game, 286 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play at home.  They are outscoring opponents by 25.0 points per game, outgaining them by 230 yards per game and 2.9 yards per play at home.

The Raiders had the good fortune of getting to face Tommy DeVito and the Giants and Zach Wilson and the Jets in the two games since Antonio Pierce took over at head coach.  This team still isn't very good, and they will get their doors blown off this week.  They were outgained by the Jets 365 to 274, or by 91 total yards and didn't deserve to win that game.  Their luck runs out this week.

The Dolphins are getting healthier on defense and just shut down the Chiefs.  They are a legit good defensive team when healthy.  They are also expected to get RB De'Von Achane back from injury, and they have arguably the best rushing attack in the NFL when he and Mostert are healthy together.  The Dolphins are going to score at will on the Raiders, who are much worse defensively than they get credit for.

Prior to facing the Jets and Giants, the Raiders gave up 486 total yards to the Lions and then 30 points to Tyson Bageant and the Bears the game prior.  The Dolphins are even more potent on offense than the Lions and will likely exceed 35 points and 500 total yards in this one.  Las Vegas is going to have to unleash Aiden O'Connell in this one, and it's going to lead to mistakes from the rookie and easy points and short fields for the Dolphins.

Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games with a total of 45.5 or higher.  Tua is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 7 points or more as a starting QB.  The Raiders are 7-25 ATS in their last 32 games following an upset win as a home underdog.  The Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after covering the spread in two of their last three games.  Bet the Dolphins Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Texans OVER 46.5

The Houston Texans are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They went for 76 combined points two weeks ago with the Tampa Bay Bucs and 57 combined points with the Cincinnati Bengals last week.  Their offense has done the heavy lifting as they have won both of those games while putting up gaudy offensive numbers.

The Texans put up 496 total yards on a very good Tampa Bay defense and 544 total yards on Cincinnati's defense last week.  CJ Stroud is having one of the best rookie seasons we've ever seen.  He is completing 62% of his passes with a 15-to-2 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.3 yards per attempt.  The Texans have shifted offensive philosophy and let Stroud throw the ball downfield a lot more the last two weeks, and it has produced tremendous results.  It's not going to stop now.

I was impressed with how well Kyler Murray played in his first game action in a year last week.  He led the Cardinals to 352 total yards and 25 points against the Falcons in a last-second win last week.  Murray had a key scramble for a first down on 3rd and 10 on that game-winning drive that shows he's not scared to run.  He is much more dynamic when that's the case.

Both of these defenses leave a lot to be desired.  The Cardinals are giving up 26.3 points per game while the Texans are allowing 21.3 points per game.  The Texans in particular have a ton of injuries on defense right now which is forcing them to win shootouts.  I mean they gave up 37 points to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in their last home game, which is all you need to know about the state of their defense.  Arizona has allowed at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout inside the dome at NRG Stadium in Houston.  I like backing OVERS in non-conference games because these teams just aren't familiar with one another, and it's hard to prepare for one another in a week's time.  Stroud and Murray are in line for a shootout Sunday afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +9

The Texas Longhorns are starting to feel the pressure of trying to make the four-team playoff by winning the Big 12.  Four of their last five games have been decided by 7 points or less with the lone exception behind their 35-6 home win over a BYU team that is the worst in the Big 12.  It's also a BYU team that Iowa State just blasted 45-13 on the road to compare.  This game will likely be decided by one score as well, so getting 9 points at home with the Cyclones is tremendous value.

After a 4-point loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, Texas then had a bye and wasn't impressive in a 31-24 win at Houston.  That's a Houston team that's probably the 2nd-worst team in the Big 12.  They also needed OT to beat Kansas State by 3 at home and escaped with a 29-26 win at TCU last week against their backup QB.  Iowa State beat TCU 27-14 at home to compare.

Iowa State isn't scared of Texas.  The Cyclones are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with their lone loss coming by 3 points as 16-point road dogs at Texas last year.  Iowa State has outgained Texas in three of those four wins and by a wide margin, too.  Iowa State is averaging 444.5 yards per game while holding Texas to 336.3 yards per game in those four meetings, outgaining Texas by 108.2 yards per game on average.

What makes Iowa State such an underrated team is a defense that is one of the best in the country, allowing 19.9 points per game, 332 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play this season.  This defense gives them a chance in any game.  They have gotten their running game going in recent weeks rushing for 125 or more yards in five of their last six games, which has taken pressure off of freshman QB Rocco Becht, who is arguably the best freshman QB in the entire country.  He has only thrown 7 interceptions this season while only taking 8 sacks despite starting all 10 games.

Texas just lost star RB Jonathan Brooks to a season-ending injury in that win over TCU last week.  Brooks has rushed for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns this season while averaging 6.1 per carry.  It's a huge drop off from him to backup RB C.J. Baxter, who has only rushed for 300 yards and 4.5 per carry this season.  The Cyclones won't have to load the box to stop the run and can play the way they want to defensively.  And they clearly have this Texas offense figured out in recent years, holding them to 21 or fewer points in each of the last four meetings, and 27 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings.

Steve Sarkisian is 0-6 ATS following two consecutive conference wins as the coach of Texas.  Matt Campbell is 12-4 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Iowa State.  I fully expect the Cyclones to win this game outright, so put part of your bet on the money line as well.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Utah State +3

The Utah State Aggies are one of the most underrated teams in college football right now.  They are 4-2 SU in their last six games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only two losses coming against the two best teams in the Mountain West in San Jose State and Fresno State.  They outgained Fresno State 568 to 461 to boot and should have won.

Utah State sits at 5-5 and highly motivated to get that 6th win and bowl eligibility.  The Aggies have elite numbers for a team that is .500 on the season.  They are outgaining opponents 448 to 402 or by 46 yards per game, and outgaining opponents 6.2 to 5.4 yards per play, or by an average of 0.8 yards per play.  The Aggies are remarkably healthy with only two plays on the injury report and neither is important.

Boise State is also 5-5 but with worse numbers.  The Broncos average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 6.2 yards per play on defense, only outgaining opponents by 0.2 yards per play.  And another difference is that Boise State's injury report is much worse.  They are without their top three receivers that were expected to start coming into the season.  They could also be without RB Aston Jeanty, who has rushed for 921 yards and 11 TD on 5.9 per carry, while also ranking 2nd on the team in receiving with 30 receptions, 396 yards and 4 TD.  He has missed the last two games and is questionable to return.

I had Utah State +16.5 at Boise State last season and it was arguably the worst bad beat of the entire season.  Trailing 28-23 with 1:09 to go, the Aggies allowed a 91-yard TD Run to fall behind 35-23.  We were still covering, but then a 48-yard INT return TD by Boise State with 31 seconds remaining turned a sure winner into an unfathomable 42-23 loser.  As you can see, I'm still not over it.  But Utah State is going to want revenge from that defeat as well, adding to their motivation.  They actually outgained Boise State 468 to 428 in that game and have outgained them in each of the last two meetings.

Boise State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by 21 points or more.  Utah State is 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS on the road this season.  They are allowing 38.0 points per game, 459 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on the road this season.  Boise State is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a cover as a double-digit favorite.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

20* Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Illinois/Iowa OVER 30.5

I'm definitely trying to catch the falling knife by backing an Iowa OVER but I feel like this is the perfect time to do it for a number of reasons.  The Hawkeyes have gone under the total in five consecutive games coming into this one, but they have played four straight dead nuts under teams in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Northwestern and Rutgers.  All four of those teams have great defenses and terrible offenses.

The two games prior they played two teams that have a pulse on offense and are poor defensively in Purdue and Michigan State and combined for 34 points with Purdue and 42 with Michigan State.  But this game against Illinois is Iowa's first real Big Ten game against a dead nuts OVER team.

The Fighting Illini are coming off a 48-45 (OT) win over Indiana last week.  They racked up 662 total yards on the Hoosiers while allowing 453 total yards.  That was their 3rd straight OVER as they also combined for 53 points with Minnesota the game prior in a 27-26 victory.  And the week prior they went for 46 combined points with Wisconsin, while also going for 51 combined points with Maryland the game before that.

In fact, Illinois and their opponents have gone for 40 or more combined points in nine of their 10 games this season, making for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 30.5-point total.  The only game that finished below this 30.5-point total was their 20-7 loss to Nebraska, and Nebraska has an elite defense and no offense.  It was also a very windy Friday night game where I was on the UNDER and Nebraska because of the weather conditions.

Iowa's offense came to life last week against a very good defense in Rutgers.  They racked up 22 points and 402 total yards and should have scored more.  But they took a knee inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds.  Iowa is going to have to score to keep up with Illinois, because Illinois is going to score.  They aren't going to just be able to sit on a lead like they have in recent weeks playing it close to the vest.

Iowa suffered a big blow in practice this week as defensive back Cooper DeJean suffered a leg injury and is now out for the season.  He was their best player on either side of the football, and without him their defense takes a big hit in the secondary.  DeJean has been so good that he was a semi-finalist for the Chuck Bednarik Award for the best defensive player in all of college football.

Illinois is 9-1 OVER in its last 10 games after gaining 375 or more passing yards last game.  Iowa is 24-10 OVER in its last 34 home games following two or more consecutive unders.  We can at least get to 17-14 for god's sake.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* C-USA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Sam Houston State/WKU OVER 52

I like backing OVERS late in the college football season involving teams with little to play for.  Well, here's a good example of that.  Sam Houston State is 2-8 this season and won't be going to a bowl game.  They will be excited about these last couple games in the first season as a FBS program.

Western Kentucky just lost to New Mexico State last week in a game that decided which one of those two teams would have a chance to square off against Liberty for the C-USA title.  They play arguably the worst team in all of college football in Florida International next week if they need that game to get bowl eligible sitting at 5-5 this season.  The Hilltoppers couldn't care less about this game, which has me leaning toward taking Sam Houston State as well.  But I prefer the OVER instead.

Sam Houston State has gone through a change in philosophy here down the stretch becoming more pass-heavy and up-tempo.  That has led to the OVER going 4-0 in their last four games overall.  They combined for 60 points with Florida International, 71 points with UTEP, 45 points with FCS Kennesaw State and 69 points with Louisiana Tech.  The Bearkats have passed for at least 225 yards in seven consecutive games now, and they have also rushed for at least 104 yards in four consecutive games.

The Bearkats should find plenty of success against a Western Kentucky defense that has been dreadful here down the stretch, especially in their last two home games.  They allowed 42 points to Liberty in a game that saw 71 combined points.  They allowed 38 points to New Mexico State in a game that saw 67 combined points.  The Hilltoppers allow 447 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on the season now.

Sam Houston State allows 30.0 points per game, 426.5 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play in conference play this season.  They'll be up against a high-powered, pass-happy Western Kentucky offense that puts up 36.4 points per game, 453 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play at home.  The Hilltoppers are averaging 317 passing yards per game at home as well.  This is a very low total for a game involving Western Kentucky. It's their lowest total of the entire season, so there's value on the OVER with that fact alone.

The weather looks great pretty much across the country this week so I wouldn't be looking to back too many unders.  This one is no exception with the forecast calling for temps in the 50's, no rain and single-digits winds Saturday at Western Kentucky.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +4

Arkansas State is quietly playing very well and knocking on the door of bowl eligibility.  The Red Wolves have gone 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall including a 37-17 upset win as 7-point dogs to UL-Lafayette.  They gave South Alabama all they wanted on the road last week in a 14-21 loss at 15-point dogs.  They play Texas State this week at home and will be highly motivated to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility for the first time since 2019.

Texas State already clinched bowl eligibility two weeks ago with a 45-24 home win over Georgia Southern.  They still had an outside shot of making the Sun Belt Championship Game heading into last week, but fell flat on their faces in a 31-23 loss at Coastal Carolina against a 3rd-string QB.  So they have nothing to play for in these final two games now and I question their motivation.  Their season is already considered a success no matter what happens because nobody expected them to make a bowl in GJ Kinne's first season on the job.

Kinne is a great offensive mind who took college football by storm by upsetting Baylor in the opener.  But Baylor looks to be one of the worst teams in the Big 12, and that win doesn't look as good as it did at the time.  Plus, teams are figuring out this Texas State offense now with plenty of film on it.  Texas State has been held to 23 or fewer points in three of their last four games.

Arkansas State's resurgence is largely due to playing much better defensively.  They have held five of their last six opponents to 28 points or fewer with the only exception behind the 37 they gave up to Troy, which is the favorite to win the Sun Belt.  Texas State also gave up 31 to Troy and has allowed 31 or more points in four of their last six games overall.  They have a dreadful defense and one that can't be trusted to lay points on the road here, especially against a team like Arkansas State that will be more motivated than they are.

Arkansas State is also playing with triple revenge here from three straight heartbreaking close losses to Texas State.  They lost the last three meetings by 3, 2 and 2 points the last three seasons.  A 3-point loss works for us if it happens again, but I fully expect the Red Wolves to win this game outright.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +7

Cincinnati is one of the best 3-7 teams I've ever seen.  They have had terrible turnover luck this season coupled with red zone struggles that has them sitting at 3-7 when they should be .500 or better at least.  Let's just look at the numbers to make my point.

Cincinnati is actually outgaining opponents by 78 yards per game.  They average 444 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing 366 yards per game on defense.  They have rushed for 224 yards per game and thrown for 221 yards per game, making them one of the rare teams to throw and pass for at least 200 yards per game this season.

West Virginia is 6-4 this season despite a worse statistical profile than Cincinnati.  The Mountaineers average 412 yards per game on offense and give up 395 yards per game on defense, only outgaining opponents by 17 yards per game.  We are getting the better team here catching a full touchdown in Cincinnati because of their misleading results up to this point.

I think this is a terrible spot for West Virginia.  The Mountaineers clinched bowl eligibility by beating BYU at home.  But last week they had a chance to get into Big 12 title contention if they could somehow upset Oklahoma.  West Virginia got blasted 59-20 at Oklahoma and gave up 646 total yards to the Sooners.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat as they don't have anything else to play for in these final two regular season games.

Scott Satterfield is 13-4 ATS in road games following a road game as a head coach.  After picking up their first Big 12 win 24-14 at Houston last week, I think the Bearcats will be out to prove it was no fluke.  They like how victory tastes and want to taste it again this week.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Rutgers +20.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions are in a terrible spot this week.  They just had their dreams of winning the Big Ten Championship crushed last week with a 24-15 home loss to Michigan.  They actually own the tiebreaker over both Michigan and Ohio State had they won that game, so they let a golden opportunity slip away.  I don't expect them to show up at all this week.

James Franklin just fired his offensive coordinator, making a rash decision not wanting to put any of the blame on himself.  And we've seen Franklin's teams really falter coming off a loss.  Franklin is 9-23 ATS off a loss at Penn State, including 2-9 ATS off a loss when listed as a double-digit favorite.  Asking Penn State to beat Rutgers by three touchdowns or more to beat us is asking too much.

I think we are getting more points than we should here because Rutgers is coming off a 22-0 shutout loss at Iowa.  But that was a big sandwich and flat spot for Rutgers.  They had their chances to upset Ohio State the previous week, and they had this huge game against Penn State on deck this week.  They weren't fully focused against Iowa, while the Hawkeyes were fully focused trying to win a Big Ten West title.

Rutgers will fire back this week and play as well as they did against Ohio State two weeks ago.  The Scarlet Knights actually outgained the Buckeyes 361 to 328, or by 31 total yards in that misleading 35-16 loss.  The problem was settling for field goals in the red zone while the Buckeyes converted their opportunities into touchdowns.  They Scarlet Knights kicked three field goals of 20, 21 and 22 yards and also had their next trip inside the 10 result in a 93-yard INT return TD for Ohio State.  If they can play with Ohio State, they can certainly play with Penn State.

Penn State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games following a conference home loss.  Greg Schiano is 18-4 ATS in road games after losing two of his last three games as a head coach.  The spot really favors the Scarlet Knights in this one and it's not being factored into the line as much as it should be.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* South Florida/UTSA ESPN 2 No-Brainer on South Florida +16

This game means nothing to UTSA.  Their game against Tulane next week is all that matters.  The winner of that game will make the C-USA Championship Game.  As a result, I think this is a flat spot and a lookahead spot for the Roadrunners that will assure that they won't bring their best effort Friday night, and that's going to make it tough for them to cover this 16-point spread when they aren't motivated to do so.

UTSA is coming off a 34-14 win over Rice last week that wasn't impressive at all when you consider Rice was missing starting QB JT Daniels.  They barely beat North Texas 37-29 the week prior and struggled to put away ECU 41-27 at home the week prior.  Neither of those teams are as good as South Florida, so I think the Bulls can hang here.

South Florida sits at 5-5 and motivated to get one more win for bowl eligibility and will clearly be the more motivated team tonight.  They beat Temple 27-23 last week and that's a Temple team that just got back starting QB EJ Warner, who means everything to them.  The Bulls gave Memphis all they could handle in a 59-50 road loss as 12.5-point dogs the game prior.  That Memphis team is also battling to make the C-USA Championship game.

South Florida will be in this game for four quarters tonight due to an offense that is absolutely electric.  The Bulls put up 30.1 points per game and 453.4 yards per game on the season and that includes a game in the slog against Alabama in which they were held to 3 points but played the Crimson Tide tough in a 17-3 defeat.  The Bulls are scoring 35.3 points per game and averaging 487.5 yards per game and 6.2 per play in conference play.  They are also scoring 35.4 points per game, averaging 498 yards per game and 5.8 per play on the road this season.

Jeff Traylor is 1-8 ATS in home games after outgaining their previous opponent by 125 or more total yards as the coach of UTSA.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven dome games.  The Roadrunners are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games after outrushing their opponent by 125 or more yards last game.  Bet South Florida Friday.

20* Bengals/Ravens AFC North No-Brainer on Baltimore -3

I was able to grab an early -3 number on the Baltimore Ravens expecting this line to move up.  They have taken money every week and for good reason.  They are arguably the best team in the entire NFL when you look at their numbers.  I would still play the Ravens as a 20* up to -4.

Baltimore is averaging 27.0 points per game, 362.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play on offense while allowing 15.7 points pre game, 273.6 yards per game and 4.4 per play on defense.  They are outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game and outgaining them by 89 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play, which is the best YPP differential in the NFL.

Let's compare those numbers to Cincinnati.  The Bengals are scoring 20.2 points per game, averaging 301.7 yards per game and 5.1 per play on offense while allowing 21.3 points per game, 383.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outscored by 1.1 points per game, which is very fortunate when you consider they are getting outgained by 82 yards per game and 1.2 yards per play.  That's one of the worst YPP differentials in the NFL.

While the Bengals have shown some life offensively in recent weeks, their defense is absolutely atrocious this season and the biggest reason they aren't as good as they have been the past couple seasons.  The Bengals allowed 544 total yards to the Texans last week with 188 on the ground to a backup RB and 356 through the air.

Making matters worse for the Bengals right now is injuries to key players.  They just lost DE Sam Hubbard to an ankle injury in that loss to Houston and they were already without WR Tee Higgins, who is going to be out again Thursday on a short week.  DE Trey Hendrickson suffered a hyperextended knee on the final play against Houston, and he is very questionable to play and won't be 100% if he does.

While Cincinnati was fortunate to even have a chance to win against Houston last week, Baltimore is going to be pissed off after blowing a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Browns.  Lamar Jackson had a pass tipped that was returned for a TD, so it was very fluky.  Give Cleveland and Deshaun Watson credit for what they were able to do in coming back.  I think the Ravens were caught looking ahead to this game.  

Amazingly, each of Baltimore's last seven losses with Lamar Jackson on the field, they had a 75% chance of winning or better in the 4th quarter.  That's how close they have been to absolute perfection over the last two seasons.  They will be pissed off after blowing another one, and they haven't forgotten that the Bengals knocked them out of the playoffs last year, albeit without Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens got their initial revenge with a 27-24 road win as 3-point underdogs at Cincinnati in their first meeting this season on September 17th.  The Ravens were banged up back then and missing several key players that has since returned.  That was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  Baltimore had a 415 to 282 advantage in total yards, but the Bengals got a long punt return TD from Charlie Jones that kept them closer than they deserved to be.  Not only did the Ravens lose in the playoffs to the Bengals, they also lost in Week 18 to them.  They would love to pay back that double-revenge by winning both regular season meetings this season and crushing Cincinnati's playoff hopes.

Plays against road teams (Cincinnati) - with a pathetic defense that allows 6.0 or more yards per play, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Finally, the Bengals are 1-23 SU in their last 24 road games at night.  They have lost 13 consecutive road night games with their last win coming at Philadelphia in 2012.  Bet the Ravens Thursday.

 20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan +5

Western Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and should be 7-0 ATS, so they are a way undervalued commodity right now.  They are coming off a 38-28 win over Central Michigan as 3-point home favorites where they gained 484 total yards in a dominant effort.  That followed up a 45-21 win at Eastern Michigan as a 3-point favorite.  

The Broncos also took Ohio to the wire as 16.5-point road dogs in a 20-17 loss the game prior.  They gave Miami Ohio all they could handle the game prior.  They covered in a 28-41 loss at Mississippi State as 21.5-point dogs.  They blasted Ball State 42-24 as 1.5-point favorites.  They also covered in a loss at Toledo and deserved to cover in a loss at Iowa.

Now Western Michigan is catching 5 points against a Northern Illinois team that can't get out of their own way right now and is overvalued.  The Huskies are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall despite being favored in all three games.  They only beat Eastern Michigan 20-13 as 12-point home favorites.  They lost at Central Michigan 37-31 as 6-point road favorites.  They lost 20-17 at home to Ball State as 9-point home favorites last time out.  Those are three of the worst teams in the MAC.  They cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number against a Western Michigan team that is playing better than them to close out the season.

Western Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven MAC road games.  Northern Illinois is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.  The Huskies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites overall.  Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.

20* Broncos/Bills ESPN No-Brainer on Denver +7.5

These are two teams headed in opposite directions.  There's clearly value with the team trending up in the Denver Broncos, especially when you consider their massive rest advantage.  They are coming off a bye week and as healthy as they have been all season.  The Bills are coming off a Sunday night game against the Cincinnati Bengals and will be playing for a 10th consecutive week.

The Bills are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have hit the skids since losing three of their best defensive players in a 25-20 loss to the Jaguars in London in which they allowed 474 total yards.  They were life and death with Tyrod Taylor and the Giants, needed two stops from the 1-yard line to seal a 14-9 home win as 15.5-point favorites.  They lost outright to the Patriots 29-25 as 7.5-point road favorites and allowed Mac Jones to look like a star.  They had to defend a hail mary in a 24-18 win as 10-point home favorites over the hapless Bucs.  And last week they were never really in the game in a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati where they allowed 397 yards.

The Broncos are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games overall.  They beat the Packers 19-17 at home and outgained them.  Then they pulled the 24-9 upset at home over the Kansas City Chiefs as 7-point dogs.  They held to the Chiefs to 19 points the game prior, and their defense getting healthy and living up to its potential is the reason for the turnaround.  They have allowed just 15.0 points per game in their last three games despite facing the Chiefs twice.  That's mighty impressive.

I'll gladly side with the better defense in this one catching 7.5 points to the Bills.  Buffalo lost another starter in S Micah Hyde in that loss to the Bengals.  LB Terrel Bernard remains in concussion protocol.  This Denver offense will have plenty of new wrinkles coming out of the bye under Sean Payton and is primed for one of their best performances of the season against this injury-ravaged Bills defense.  Buffalo QB Josh Allen is nursing a shoulder injury that has made him the 2nd-least accurate passer in the NFL on deep throws since the injury.

Denver is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games when playing on two weeks' rest.  Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Buffalo) - after two consecutive games where they forced zero turnovers against an opponent that committed one or fewer turnovers last game are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Sean Payton is 50-31 ATS as an underdog as a head coach.  Payton is 45-25 ATS following two consecutive ATS wins as a head coach.  The Bills are getting too much respect for the team they were in the past, not the team they currently are.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

15* NFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Falcons PK

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Atlanta Falcons.  They are 4-5 SU & 2-7 ATS this season with so many losses in close games.  But Taylor Heineke has given this offense a spark the last two weeks and I think they are better off with him moving forward.

Heineke replaced Desmond Ridder midway through the Tennessee game and nearly led them to a comeback, throwing for 175 yards and a touchdown on only 21 attempts.  He then threw for 268 yards and another touchdown against the Vikings last week and led them to 28 points.  He led what looked to be the game-winning TD drive with two minutes left to take a 28-24 lead, but the defense couldn't hold it.

I think everything comes together for the Falcons this week.  They are just one game back of the Saints in the NFC South Division with a lot to play for.  They won't be taking the Arizona Cardinals lightly, especially coming off two consecutive losses.  Leading receiver Drake London is expected to return this week after missing last week.  Heineke will be even better with him on the field as another weapon.

But this is as much of a fade of Arizona as anything.  The Cardinals are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with five losses by double-digits.  They couldn't win with Josh Dobbs at quarterback, and Kyler Murray won't be an upgrade in his first start back from a torn ACL.  He won't be the old Kyler Murray where he was looking to run, and he isn't exactly the best pocket passer.

Arizona's troubles go much deeper than at quarterback.  They've been without RB James Conner, RB Emari Demercado and WR Michael Wilson.  They have three starters on the offensive line that are questionable as this has just been a mash unit this season.  Murray isn't going to have much time behind this offensive line.  Arizona has a leaky defense that allows 26.7 points per game and 5.7 yards per play this season.

Atlanta is one of those teams that has better numbers than their record would indicate which is another reason we can 'buy low' on them in the second half of the season.  They are outgaining opponents by 40 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play.  Arizona is getting outgained by 62 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play to compare.  We are getting the Falcons cheap here because of the Kyler Murray news.  It won't make a difference in his first game back.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit Lions ML -120

The Detroit Lions are as healthy as they have been all season.  They are coming out of their bye week and primed for a big performance against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend.  They are the better team in this matchup, so getting -120 on the money line on the opener Sunday night was an absolute steal.

The Lions are expected to get RB David Montgomery back from injury this week.  They are also expected to get two starting offensive linemen back this week.  It's not like they were hurting going into the bye, crushing the Raiders 26-14 in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They outgained the Raiders 486 to 157, or by 331 total yards.

The Lions are an elite team but aren't getting treated like one.  They belong up there with the 49ers, Chiefs and Ravens of the world.  The Lions are outgaining opponents by 94 yards per game on the season and 0.5 yards per play.  Let's compare that to the Chargers, who are actually getting outgained by 35 yards per game and 0.3 yards per play, and it's easy to see why I'm on the Lions.

The Chargers are getting respect here because of their 27-6 win over the Jets on Monday Night Football.  That was such a misleading final.  The Jets held them to just 191 total yards yet lost by 21.  They gave up an 87-yard punt return TD to the Chargers for the first score of the game and were behind the eight ball the rest of the way, finishing -3 in turnovers.

This Chargers offense has been held to 17 points by the Cowboys, 17 points by the Chiefs and then 191 yards by the Jets in three of their last four games.  Their offense is broken right now.  They are without two of their top three receivers in Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer, and they are so easy to stop now because teams can key in on Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler without having to worry about those other two.  The Chargers don't have the firepower to keep up with the Lions in this one, and the Lions have the much better defense.

Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a home win.  The Lions are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games in Weeks 10 through 13.  Detroit is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after winning two of its last three games.  Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. poor pass defenses allowing 7 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season.  These four trends combined for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Lions.  Bet the Lions on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Browns/Ravens AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore -6.5

The Baltimore Ravens have gotten healthy and are currently the best team in the NFL with the way they are playing.  They should be 9-0 but instead are 7-2 as they gave two games away against the Colts and Steelers earlier this season when they weren't healthy.  What they have done their last four games when healthy has been mighty impressive.

Baltimore beat Tennessee 24-16 in London and outgained the Titans 360 to 233, or by 127 total yards.  They beat the Lions 38-6 at home and outgained the Lions 503 to 337, or by 166 total yards.  They beat Arizona 31-24 on the road and that game was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they led by 17 in the 4th quarter.  They beat Seattle 37-3 and outgained the Seahawks 515 to 151, or by 364 total yards.

This run has Baltimore ranked as the 3rd-best team in DVOA in NFL history through nine games.  The Ravens average 369 yards per game and 5.9 per play on offense and allow 263 yards per game and 4.3 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 106 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play.  They are scoring 26.6 points per game and allowing 13.8 points per game, outscoring opponents by 12.8 points per game.

The Cleveland Browns are coming off a 27-0 win over Arizona which is giving them more respect than they deserve.  Arizona started 3rd stringer Clayton Tune in that game and seemed to purposely try to lose it.  Deshaun Watson made his return from injury in that game and still didn't look right, but fortunately it didn't matter because the Cardinals didn't have a pulse on offense.  It will matter this week.

It also matters that Watson will be playing behind an offensive line that is missing both starting tackles in Jack Conklin and Jedrick Willis Jr.  Now backup RT Dawand Jones has been ruled out.  Watson is going to have his hands full with this offensive line up against one of the best pass rushes in the NFL that the Ravens deploy.

I think this Cleveland defense is overrated, too.  They allowed 24 points and 362 total yards to the Seahawks and 38 points and 456 total yards to the Colts in their two games prior to facing the hapless Cardinals.  We saw what the Ravens did to both of those teams holding the Colts to 19 points at the end of regulation, then holding the Seahawks to 3 points and 151 total yards last week.

The Ravens beat the Browns 28-3 on the road in their first meeting this season and had no problem scoring on them.  The Ravens were also missing five defensive starters in that game.  I know it was DTR instead of Watson, but I just don't think it's going to make a difference because Watson isn't right.  It's going to be more of the same in the rematch with another blowout victory in Baltimore's favor.

Cleveland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win by 10 points or more.  The Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after covering the spread in two of their last three games.  Kevin Stefanski is 1-8 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points as the coach of Cleveland.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing Baltimore.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

20* 49ers/Jaguars Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco ML -135

I love backing motivated teams off a bye week and fading fat and happy teams off a bye week.  I get the best of both worlds here making the 49ers a very strong play to take down the Jacksonville Jaguars on the Money Line.

The 49ers are pissed off following three consecutive losses in games they easily could have won.  They lost by 2 at Cleveland, by 5 at Minnesota and by 14 at home to Cincinnati despite outgaining them by 60 yards and racking up 460 yards of offense in a misleading final.

A big reason for the 49ers' struggles were the injuries suffered in the loss to Cleveland.  But now they are healthy out of the bye and expected to get both OT Trent Williams and WR Deebo Samuel back from injury.  Williams is arguably the best tackle in the NFL protecting Brock Purdy's blind side.  Samuel just opens up the entire offense with his ability to catch short passes and take it the distance.  Plus, the 49ers get better defensively with the trade for Chase Young to pair him up with former Ohio State teammate Nick Bosa on the defensive line.

The Jaguars didn't need a bye because they were building up huge momentum going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their five games going into the bye.  Now they have lost that momentum and are fat and happy and not as motivated as the 49ers will be.  Plus, this five-game winning streak comes with some asterisks as it was a very soft schedule.

The Jaguars beat the Falcons in London then beat the Bills in London, who lost three defensive starters early in that game that changed the complexion of it.  Then they beat the Colts despite only gaining 233 yards as the Colts handed it to them with four turnovers.  They went on the road and beat the Saints by 7 as the Saints dropped a wide open TD pass in the final seconds that would have tied it.  Then they beat the hapless Steelers, who have been outgained in every single game this season.

This is a big step up in class for the Jaguars to say the least.  It's similar to when they faced the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2 and lost 17-9.  Their offense was held to 271 total yards by the Chiefs while giving up 399 yards.  The 49ers are the real contenders of these two teams, and that will show on the field Sunday.  It also shows up in the numbers.

The 49ers average 6.4 yards per play on offense and allow 5.2 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.2 yards per play.  The Jaguars are actually getting outgained on the season and outgained by 0.1 yards per play as well, gaining 5.2 on offense and allowing 5.3 on defense.  I have the 49ers among the elite and the Jaguars in the middle of the pack.  Jacksonville has very little home-field advantage compared to the rest of the NFL, too.

San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a non-conference game.  Jacksonville is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games vs. NFC West opponents.  Plays on road teams (San Francisco) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a good team winning 60-75% of their games in the second half of the season are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (San Francisco) - after three or more consecutive ATS losses against an opponent off two or more consecutive ATS wins are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  I grabbed the 49ers on the Money Line on the opener anticipating this line would move.  Bet the 49ers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Colts/Patriots AFC Early ANNIHILATOR on Indianapolis ML -115

The Indianapolis Colts have a pulse now at 4-5 after beating the Carolina Panthers 27-13 on the road last week to end a three-game losing streak against a tough schedule of the Jaguars, Browns and Saints.  They played all three of those teams tough when you look at the box score, and they did so short-handed.

Reinforcements are on the way for the Colts as they head to Germany to face the hapless New England Patriots.  Teams have been able to run on them without DT Grover Stewart and especially without LB Zaire Franklin, the team's leading tackler with 102 tackles on the season, which is 40 more than 2nd place.  Franklin returns to the lineup this week and will help shut down this New England rushing attack.

The Patriots are 2-7 SU & 2-7 ATS this season and were fortunate to escape with both of the wins they have.  They have a dreadful offense averaging just 15.0 points per game while the Colts average 25.8 points per game and are the only NFL team to score at least 20 points in every game.  The Colts have a better defense than they get credit for ranking in the top half of the league in most metrics.  The Patriots started out great defensively, but injuries have them falling off a cliff of late allowing 25 points to Buffalo, 31 points to Miami and 20 points and 432 total yards to Washington in their last three games.

The Patriots will be without CB JC Jackson and OT Trent Brown.  They are lacking playmakers at receiver and will be without Davante Parker and Kendrick Bourne.  Demario Douglas is also banged up and questionable.  They are in a really sad state offensively right now with JuJu Smith-Schuster as their go-to receiver.  He can't get separation any more.  Mac Jones has nobody to throw to, and when he does throw he makes terrible decisions and cannot be trusted.

Given the state of both of these teams with the Colts trending up and the Patriots trending down, the Colts should be the favorites here on a neutral field, so getting them at a PK is a gift.  Indianapolis is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS on the road this season including an upset of the Baltimore Ravens.  The Colts are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games after scoring at least 25 points in three consecutive games.  Indianapolis is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 road games vs. teams that force one or fewer turnovers per game.  Mac Jones is 3-16 SU & 4-15 ATS as an underdog in his career.  Bet the Colts on the Money Line Sunday.

20* USC/Oregon FOX Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -14.5

The gift that keeps on giving for us is fading USC.  USC is now 0-7 ATS in its last seven games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 108 points, or an average of 15.4 points per game.  They only beat Arizona State by 14, Colorado by 7 and Arizona by 2 before losing by 28 to Notre Dame.  The Trojans have played such a soft schedule this season and finally met their match against Notre Dame.

They have since lost outright by 2 at home as 7-point favorites against Utah and were life and death with Cal as 10-point favorites, escaping with a 1-point victory.  They lost by 10 to Washington as 2.5-point home dogs last week which ended their hopes of winning the Pac-12.  I really question their motivation the rest of the way.

Now USC will face its stiffest test of the season on the road against an Oregon team that looks like a bonafide playoff contender and the best team in the Pac-12.  Oregon is 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS this season with elite numbers on offense and defense.  They are scoring 47.4 points per game, averaging 540.1 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play, while allowing just 16.0 points per game, 301.9 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 3.1 yards per play, which is absolutely elite.

They will be able to score at will on a USC defense that allows 34.5 points per game, 436.5 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  This USC defense is the reason they aren't a contender.  They have a very good offense, but it doesn't matter because the defense can't stop anyone.  They certainly aren't going to stop Oregon after allowing 52 points to Washington and 49 to Cal the last two weeks.  They have allowed 41 or more points in five of their last six games, and the lone exception was the 34 they allowed to a Utah offense that isn't even very good.  To compare, Oregon held Utah to 6 points in a 35-6 victory two weeks ago in Salt Lake City to boot.

Oregon is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 42 points or more.  This line should be much higher given the circumstances with USC a dead team walking and Oregon with a ton to play for.  Plus, it's a Saturday night home game for the Ducks in what will be a very hostile atmosphere in their favor.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

25* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Jose State ML -103

Despite their 4-5 record, the San Jose State Spartans are very much alive to win the Mountain West.  They trail the Fresno State Bulldogs by just one game for 2nd place, and the top two teams play for the title.  They have put themselves in this position by playing their best football of the season of late after a brutal schedule to start the season.

San Jose State is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  They beat New Mexico 52-24 as 6-point road favorites behind 541 total yards with 16.0 yards per pass attempt and 8.1 yards per rush.  They beat a very good Utah State team 42-21 and held their high-powered offense to just 264 total yards.  Then they beat Hawaii 35-0 while holding a solid Hawaii offense to 198 total yards.

That game against Hawaii was two weeks ago so they are coming off a bye and have had two full weeks to prepare for Fresno State.  Meanwhile, Fresno State is coming off four straight games decided by a single score that went down to the wire.  That includes their 37-30 win over Boise State last week where a kickoff return TD was the difference on the final play before half, plus they punched in a TD late on a breakaway 52-yard run.

Fresno State has been outgained in three consecutive games despite winning all three as they have simply been fortunate in close games.  They gave up 568 yards to Utah State, 424 yards to UNLV and 488 yards to Boise State.  Their defense isn't very good, and they are going to struggle to stop this surging San Jose State offense led by QB Chandler Cordeiro.  He is completing 61% of his passes with a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for three scores on the ground.  The Spartans have rushed for at least 217 yards in three consecutive games and have tremendous balance.

No question Fresno State is led by a very good offense, but QB Mikey Keene is still hobbled and not 100%.  I think this San Jose State defense is going to perform very well here just as they have the past two games against Utah State and Hawaii.  They will put this two weeks of preparation to good use in coming up with the right game plan to at least slow down this Bulldogs offense.  I think Fresno State's luck runs out this week in what is a terrible spot for them, and a great one for the Spartans.

Fresno State is 4-13 ATS in its last 16 road games following two consecutive home wins.  San Jose State is 6-0 ATS in Saturday games this season.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Georgia ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +11

The Ole Miss Rebels are very much alive to win the SEC West with just one loss this season.  They are going to need Alabama to slip up, but they still have to play Kentucky and Auburn.  I have no doubt Ole Miss will be 'all in' this week to try and knock off the defending two-time national champion Georgia Bulldogs.  They are treating this game as their national championship.

Georgia has been overvalued all season after winning the title each of the last two seasons.  They are consistently laying too many points, going 2-6-1 ATS in their nine games this season despite being 9-0 straight up.  They let South Carolina, Auburn, Missouri and Vanderbilt all hang around with three of those wins coming by 10 points or fewer.  This will now be by far their toughest test of the season.

I cashed Missouri +16 last week against Georgia and they were only outgained by 22 yards in a 9-point loss at Georgia.  That was the game Georgia had to win because it basically sealed the SEC East for them.  It also followed up the win over Florida, their biggest rivals.  So this is the third straight game they are going to have to get up for, and I don't like their mental state coming into this one.  Those games against SEC East foes Florida and Missouri were much more important than this game against Ole Miss from the West.

Ole Miss has played the 13th-toughest schedule in the country while Georgia has played the 69th.  That's a 56-spot difference in strength of schedule.  That important to consider when looking at the statistical profile of these two teams, which is much closer than you would expect for a team catching 11 points.  Ole Miss gains 6.9 yards per play and allows 5.1 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 1.8 yards per play.  Georgia averages 7.1 yards per play and allows 4.7 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 2.4 yards per play.

Georgia has a couple injuries here that are also concerning.  They lost leading receiver Brock Bowers a couple games ago.  He has 41 receptions for 567 yards and 4 TD and was even in the Heisman Trophy discussion for how well he was playing.  They just lost starting LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson to a fractured forearm against Missouri, and he's the 3rd-leading tackler on the team and has the most sacks.  Fellow LB Xavian Sorey Jr. missed last game and is questionable to return.

Ole Miss has the kind of high-powered offense that is going to keep them in this game for four quarters.  QB Jaxoson Dart is completing 65.6% of his passes with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio and averaging 10.1 yards per attempt, while also rushing for 334 yards and 7 TD on the ground.  He has arguably the most talented trio of receivers in the country in Harris, Watkins and Wade.  The Rebels have nice balance rushing for 181 yards per game, and teams have been able to move the ball on the ground against this Georgia defense unlike previous years.

Georgia is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games following three consecutive conference wins, including 1-9 ATS under Kirby Smart in this spot.  The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after not committing a turnover in their previous game.  Georgia is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. excellent passing teams that allow 275 or more passing yards per game.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati/Houston OVER 54.5

I like backing OVERS between two teams with not much to play for.  There tends to be more offense and less defense in these games.  Cincinnati sits at 2-7 on the season while Houston sits at 4-5.  They aren't going to be concerned with playing defense in this one, and it's not like either of these teams has played very good defense anyway all season.

Cincinnati allows 28.3 points per game and 6.2 yards per play overall, including 31.7 points per game and 6.5 yards per play in Big 12 play.  Houston allows 31.6 points per game and 6.0 yards per play overall, including 36.7 points per game and 6.1 yards per play in conference play.

Cincinnati has a great offense for a team that is 2-7.  The Bearcats average 452.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season, but they have been done in by turnovers.  Houston averages 25.2 points per game and 5.7 yards per play and should get their offense going this week against this Cincinnati defense.

Four of Cincinnati's last five games have seen 54 or more combined points.  I think this total is lower than it should be because Houston has gone under the total in three straight games, but they played two great defenses in Texas and Kansas State.  They got their offense going last week against Baylor again and that should continue against Cincinnati this week.

Houston is 6-0 OVER vs. bad teams with a winning percentage of 25% or less over the last three seasons.  Dana Holgorsen is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. teams that average 32-plus minutes in time of possession and 21 or more first downs per game as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Colorado State -3.5

I faded San Diego State last week with success and I am fading the Aztecs again for many of the same reasons.  Brady Hoke is used to competing for Mountain West titles but he has lost his touch.  It's unlikely he'll be back after this season, and this just looks like a dead Aztecs team right now. They sit at just 3-6 on the season and won't even be making a bowl game once they lost this week.

They suffered a 6-0 home loss to Nevada two weeks ago, which came against one of the worst teams in all of college football.  They were life and death the game prior against Hawaii and were fortunate to win that game considering Hawaii had 480 total yards but committed four costly turnovers.  And the week prior they were flat as a pancake in a 49-10 loss at Air Force.

They were more competitive last week but were fortunate to force OT as they trailed Utah State 17-7 at home with 11 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter.  Utah State missed a 38-yard field goal to give them life, and they took advantage by scoring the final 10 points.  They wound up losing 32-24 in double-OT, which was yet another deflating loss.  I don't think they'll be able to get back up off the mat in time to face Colorado State on the road this week.

San Diego State is 3-6 this season and every bit as bad as that record would indicate.  They are gaining 5.1 yards per play on offense and allowing 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.0 yards per play.  They are also getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game.  They have another terrible offense this season, but the difference has been having their worst defense in over a decade.

Colorado State is much better than its 2-6 record would indicate.  They should have beaten Colorado in a double-OT loss, and they played UNLV to the wire in a 2-point defeat.  They did beat Boise State, which was a very good win.  They were competitive against both Air Force and Wyoming when you look at the numbers, too.  This is a massive step down in class for Colorado State after their gauntlet of a schedule over the last five weeks.  They also get an extra day of rest after losing at Wyoming last Friday.

Colorado State has played six road games and only three home games, while San Diego State has played six home games and only three road games.  The Rams have played the much tougher schedule to this point as well, especially when you consider the home/road discrepancy.  They close with three very winnable games against SDSU, Nevada and Hawaii and could still get to a bowl with a lot to play for.  I think the Rams get a good reset here knowing that's the case.  It starts with a win and cover here against the dead Aztecs.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas State +12

Arkansas State is quietly playing very well and knocking on the door of bowl eligibility.  The Red Wolves have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and coming off a 37-17 upset win as 7-point dogs to UL-Lafayette.  They have a tough remaining schedule so will be 'all in' in every game the rest of the way to get that coveted 6th win and bowl eligibility.

South Alabama is in the midst of a disappointing season.  They were expected to contend for a Sun Belt title with 18 returning starters from a team that nearly won the title last year.  But they lost to James Madison in their Sun Belt opener, and have since lost two more times in conference play to knock them out of title contention.

The 33-20 loss to Louisiana at home as 12-point favorites hurt two weeks ago, but they were still alive when they took on Troy last week.  Their 28-10 loss to Troy ended all hope.  Now I question their motivation the rest of the way.  That loss to Troy was the kind of loss that could easily beat a team twice.

QB Carter Bradley got hurt against Louisiana and missed the Troy game because of it.  He must have been really hurt to miss the Troy game with their season on the line.  He is questionable to return this week, but my best guess is he doesn't play, and even if he does he won't be anywhere near 100%.  Bradley completed 66% of his passes while averaging 8.5 per attempt this season, and there's a huge drop off to his backup.

The Jaguars have no business being 12-point favorites here over Arkansas State given their lack of motivation and the injury to Bradley.  There's a ton of value here with the Red Wolves, who are live underdogs to pull off the upset once again.  South Alabama is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games when playing against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%).  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

20* C-USA GAME OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State +4.5

What more does New Mexico State have to do to get some respect? They are 7-3 SU & 7-2-1 ATS this season and still lacking the respect they deserve as 4.5-point underdogs to a Western Kentucky team that they are better than.  New Mexico State is trying to earn a berth to the C-USA Championship Game, and another win Saturday would go a long way in accomplishing that goal.

New Mexico State is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in conference play with their lone loss coming to Liberty, the C-USA favorite that remains unbeaten this season.  Western Kentucky is 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS in conference play this season.  New Mexico State is outgaining opponents by 15.5 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play in conference play.  Western Kentucky is getting outgained by 28.2 yards per game and only outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play in conference play.  It's clear to me New Mexico State is the better team when you look at the numbers.

WKU is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall.  They were upset by Jacksonville State and nothing was fluky about that defeat, getting outgained 484 to 339, or by 145 total yards.  They lost 42-29 to Liberty at home in their most important game of the season.  Then last week they were fortunate to beat a terrible UTEP team as a 9-point favorite, actually getting outgained 368 to 280 by UTEP or by 88 total yards.  They just aren't playing well enough right now to warrant being a 4.5-point favorite here.

The Aggies have a huge matchup advantage on the ground in this one.  They rush for 203 yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry.  Western Kentucky allows 211 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry this season. They are going to be able to get whatever they want on the ground, and they are the much more balanced offense in this one as WKU only averages 111 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry.  New Mexico State averages 222 passing yards per game and 9.0 per attempt this season.  WKU only averages 6.7 passing yards per attempt.

The Aggies average 7.2 yards per play on offense and allow 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 1.6 yards per play.  WKU averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 6.0 per play on defense, actually getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.

New Mexico State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games.  The Aggies are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I fully expect the Aggies to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance in a game that could easily be decided by a FG either way.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

15* Alabama/Kentucky ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -10.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide have quietly gone 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS since their loss to Texas and are hitting on all cylinders right now.  They have their sights set on making the SEC Championship Game with a lot to play for the rest of the way.  They will win the SEC West if they win out, so they won't be taking Kentucky lightly this week.

Back-to-back 14-point wins over both Tennessee and LSU were impressive, and now they take a step down in class here against a Kentucky team that fails every time they step up in class.  Case in point being their 51-13 loss at Georgia four games back and their 38-21 home loss to Missouri, followed by their 33-27 home loss to Tennessee.  They ended their 3-game losing streak with a 24-3 win over Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs have a ton of injuries right now and were playing with a backup QB to boot.  I give them zero credit for that victory.

QB Devin Leary is questionable to play for Kentucky, but whoever is under center is going to have zero success against this elite Alabama defense.  I would be surprised if Alabama doesn't hold Kentucky to a season low in points in this one, which will pave the way for them to covering this 10.5-point spread.  Alabama's offense has averaged 38 points in their consecutive wins over LSU and Tennessee.

The Crimson Tide have played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country while Kentucky has played the 65th-ranked schedule.  That's a difference of 64 spots.  Alabama is 7-0 in its last seven meetings with Kentucky with six of those seven wins coming by double-digits.  It should be more of the same in this meeting with what the Crimson Tide have at stake here.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +14

Georgia Tech has been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They are one win away from bowl eligibility at 5-4 and will be motivated to beat Clemson.  They have already pulled off upsets against two of the best teams in the ACC in Miami as 19-point road dogs and UNC as 11.5-point home dogs, and those two efforts will give them the confidence to hang with Clemson as 14-point road dogs this weekend.

I question Clemson's motivation and what they have left in the tank.  They have played four straight games that went down to the wire against Wake Forest in a 17-12 victory, Miami in a 28-20 loss, NC State in a 24-17 loss and Notre Dame in a 31-23 win.  They are coming off that Notre Dame win, making this a classic letdown spot for them.  Their offense isn't good enough to get margin against this Georgia Tech team that is going to keep coming.  

Georgia Tech's offense put up 46 on UNC and 45 on Virginia the last two weeks and is an explosive unit.  The Yellow Jackets average 6.8 yards per play while Clemson's offense averages 5.4 yards per play.  No question Clemson has the better defense, but they only outgain opponents by 1.0 yards per play on the season while Georgia Tech is solid outgaining opponents by 0.4 yards per play.  That slight edge for the Tigers doesn't warrant them being 14-point favorites here.

Georgia Tech is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games when playing with 6 or less days' rest.  The Yelow Jackets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog.  Clemson is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games with a total of 52.5 to 56.  The yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Yellow Jackets played one-score games against Louisville, UNC and Miami already this season, and this is likely to be a one-score game as well.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* Wyoming/UNLV FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV -5.5

The UNLV Rebels have been the most undervalued team in the entire country.  They are 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS this season and legit contenders to win the Mountain West.  They won't be lacking any motivation tonight with Wyoming visiting Las Vegas in what is going to be a hostile atmosphere Friday night inside Allegiant Stadium.

UNLV is 4-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 14.8 points per game.  Wyoming has played six of its first nine games ad home.  While Wyoming is 6-0 at home, they are 0-3 on the road and getting outscored by 17.6 points per game.  They are averaging just 14.7 points per game, 241.3 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play in their three road games.

Wyoming lacks a consistent passing attack averaging just 150 passing yards per game.  They won't be able to take advantage of UNLV's one weakness, which is defending the pass.  This is strength on strength here.  Wyoming averages 152 rushing yards per game, and they'll be up against a UNLV defense that allows just 126 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  They'll be able to stop Wyoming from running the football, which will be the key to their win and cover.

UNLV has a balanced offensive attack averaging 36.7 points per game and 6.2 yards per play this season with 201 rushing yards per game and 225 passing yards per game.  Wyoming gave up 31-plus points in all three road games this season and isn't as good defensively as they get credit for.  They will have a hard time matching up with UNLV's speed on the turf in this one.

UNLV is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a win by 35 points or more.  Bet UNLV Friday.

15* Panthers/Bears NFC Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 40.5

The Carolina Panthers have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  They rank 26th in scoring at 17.5 points per game, 28th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game and 32nd at 4.5 yards per play.  They aren't going to be able to score much on this improving Chicago Bears defense.

The Bears have gotten healthy on defense and have quietly allowed just 21.2 points per game in their last five games.  They held the Saints to 301 total yards last week in a fraudulent final as they were -5 in turnovers in a 24-17 loss.  Their defense single-handedly kept them in that game as their offense turned it over in their own territory time and time again.

The Bears have scored 13, 13 and 17 points in three of their four games with Tyson Bagent at quarterback.  He is likely to get the start again Thursday.  He'll be up against an underrated Carolina defense that ranks 8th in total defense at 310.0 yards per game.  The Panthers held the Colts to just 208 total yards last week after holding the Texans to just 229 total yards the week prior.  Those are two offenses that were tearing it up previously to facing Carolina.

Plays on the UNDER on any team where the total is 35.5 to 42 points (Carolina) - after losing six or seven of their last eight games, when playing on Thursday night are 21-3 (87.5%) since 1983.  Primetime UNDERS have been absolutely money this season.  They are 22-7 this season and 62-29 over the last two seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Panthers/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Chicago -3

I just added the Chicago Bears -3 Thursday morning as I have been leaning that way all week.  But the line ballooned to -4 with the chance that Justin Fields may return at QB.  Once he was announced out, it got back down to -3 and the value is there to pull the trigger on the Bears.

This Bears team is trending in the right direction even with Tyson Bagent at QB.  They beat the Raiders 30-12 three weeks ago.  Their 30-13 loss to the Chargers was very misleading as they were only outgained by 57 yards.  And last week's loss to the Saints was also misleading as they lost 24-17 despite outgaining the Saints by 67 yards, but they were -5 in turnovers.  Now they are back home where they were last seen beating the Raiders by 18.

The Bears have gotten healthy on defense and have quietly allowed just 21.2 points per game in their last five games.  They held the Saints to 301 yards last week.  Now they will be up against a Carolina Panthers team that has one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  The Panthers rank 26th in scoring at 17.5 points per game, 28th in total offense at 283.4 yards per game and dead last (32nd) at 4.5 yards per play.  They aren't going to be able to score much against this improving Chicago defense.

But the biggest reason I added the Bears -3 this morning is the laundry list of injuries the Panthers are dealing with right now.  The Panthers are going to be without two of their best receivers in DJ Chark Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr.  Their best defensive player in LB Brian Burns is out after getting injured last week, as is starting CB CJ Henderson.  Starting FS Xavier Woods is questionable as is starting SS Vonn Bell.  The Panthers are an absolute mash unit right now with 21 players on the injury report compared to just 8 for Chicago.

The Panthers are 1-7 SU & 1-6-1 ATS in eight games this season with all seven losses by 3 points or more and six losses by 8 points or more.  Their lone win came at the buzzer on a short FG at home after their bye week.  They followed it up with a 27-13 home loss to the Colts last week, and I don't trust them to perform well here on a short week with all these injuries on the road.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this season with all four losses coming by double-digits and by an average of 15.8 points per game.  Bet the Bears Thursday.