03-15-16 |
Celtics v. Pacers -2.5 |
Top |
98-103 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 59 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -2.5
The Indiana Pacers currently sit in 7th place in the Eastern Conference. They are just 1.5 games ahead of the No. 8 Chicago Bulls and the No. 9 Detroit Pistons. They are also only 4 games behind Boston for the No. 3 seed in the East, so anything is possible for them going forward.
One thing is certain, given their current position, the Pacers are going to be motivated to take care of business tonight against the Celtics. I like their chances considering they are 19-11 at home this season, while the Celtics are 16-16 on the road.
The Celtics have been playing well lately, but they've done all of their damage at home. The Pacers are 28-14 in their last 42 home meetings with Boston, and they've won four of their last five home meetings of late. The home team has won six of the last eight meetings as well.
There is one key injury for Boston here that is getting overlooked. Jae Crowder will miss a couple weeks with a sprained ankle. He usually matches up with superstar Paul George, but now the Celtics have nobody to defend him. Look for George to have a monster game in leading the Pacers to a win and cover.
The Pacers are 22-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. The Celtics are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with the Pacers Tuesday.
|
03-14-16 |
Blazers v. Thunder -7.5 |
|
94-128 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder will be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they host the Portland Trail Blazers. They have lost two straight coming in with a 96-99 home loss to Minnesota, and an 85-93 road loss to San Antonio. Look for them to get back on track in a big way tonight.
The Blazers come in overvalued because they have played well in the second half of the season. But they have lost four of their last six games overall with all four losses coming on the road. The Blazers are now 14-20 on the road this season, while the Thunder are 26-9 at home.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won four straight meetings. That includes a 16-point win and an 11-point win in the last two meetings in Oklahoma City, and another double-digit home victory for the Thunder can be expected here.
The Blazers are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Thunder are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. The Blazers are 5-11-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight visits to OKC. The favorite is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings. Take the Thunder Monday.
|
03-14-16 |
Mavs +7 v. Hornets |
Top |
107-96 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +7
The Dallas Mavericks are in desperate need of a win today to put an end to a 5-game losing streak. They currently hold the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference, just two games ahead of the Utah Jazz. It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight.
The Mavericks are way undervalued right now due to this 5-game skid. At the same time, the Hornets are way overvalued right now due to their 7-game winning streak coming in. It's the perfect storm and has created some very nice line value on the Mavs +7 here.
Dallas has won 19 of its last 22 meetings with Charlotte overall. The Mavs are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to Charlotte while going 8-2 SU in their last 10 road meetings in this series.
Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games are 46-18 (71.9%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Mavericks Monday.
|
03-13-16 |
Jazz -2.5 v. Kings |
Top |
108-99 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -2.5
It's now or never for the Utah Jazz, who need to play perfect basketball down the stretch to make the playoffs. They are 2.5 games behind the Houston Rockets for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
Utah got back on track with an emphatic 114-93 home victory over the Washington Wizards on Friday night. I look for them to build off of that win and to take care of business against the lowly Sacramento Kings, who are well out of the playoff hunt.
The Kings have been playing like their season is done over the last several weeks. They are 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall with seven of those losses coming by 6 points or more.
Utah is 54-26 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons, including 26-7 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two years. The Kings are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss. Sacramento is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Kings are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Bet the Jazz Sunday.
|
03-12-16 |
Magic +8 v. Blazers |
|
84-121 |
Loss |
-103 |
11 h 12 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Orlando Magic +8
The Portland Trail Blazers are in a big hangover spot today from their 112-128 loss to the Golden State Warriors last night. After playing the best team in the NBA, they will have a hard time getting motivated to face the Orlando Magic.
The Magic are still trying to make a push to make the playoffs at 28-36 on the season. They picked up a big 107-100 road win at Sacramento last night, and now they'll carry that momentum into this game. They had two days off before the Sacramento game, and they get two days off after this game, so look for them to be dialed in and focused.
The Magic have had the Blazers' number in recent meetings while winning two straight and three of the last four. They won 102-94 as 4.5-point favorites in their most recent meeting, and 111-104 as 8.5-point dogs in the meeting prior.
Orlando is a sensational 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season. Portland is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after a combined score of 205 points or more in four straight games. The Magic are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 vs. NBA Northwest opponents. The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing on 0 days' rest. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Orlando is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Magic Saturday.
|
03-12-16 |
Thunder +8.5 v. Spurs |
|
85-93 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 12 m |
Show
|
15* Thunder/Spurs ABC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma City +8.5
Because the Oklahoma City Thunder were upset last night by the Minnesota Timberwolves, they come into this game against the San Antonio Spurs way undervalued as 8.5-point dogs. It's time to jump on them while the betting public is down on them.
But that game against the Timberwolves was the ideal letdown spot for the Thunder. They were coming off a big win over the Clippers on Wednesday, and they knew they had the Spurs on deck the next night. It was a classic sandwich game, and the Thunder simply did not show up. But after losing to the Wolves, they will be re-focused and ready to go tonight.
OKC is 61-39 ATS in its last 100 games following a home loss, and 37-20 ATS in its last 57 games following a loss by 3 points or less. The Thunder are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 Saturday games. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win, and 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Thunder Saturday.
|
03-11-16 |
Knicks +10 v. Clippers |
|
94-101 |
Win
|
102 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +10
The Los Angeles Clippers are in a very bad spot here. They are in a sandwich game and won't bring their best effort. They just lost to Oklahoma City on Wednesday in their last game, and now they'll be looking ahead to Sunday's showdown with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
In between those two massive games, they must face the lowly New York Knicks. The Knicks will be the team looking forward to this game. They are playing better of late, too, winning in blowout fashion over Detroit (102-89) and Phoenix (128-97) in two of their last three games.
The Knicks are a sensational 18-9 ATS as road underdogs this season. New York is 33-13 ATS revenging a home blowout loss vs. opponent of 20 points or more since 1996. The Knicks are 26-16 ATS when revenging a loss in all games this season. The Knicks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the Knicks Friday.
|
03-11-16 |
Blazers v. Warriors OVER 227 |
|
112-128 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* Blazers/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 227
Rarely do I take OVERs in the NBA, but I couldn't help myself tonight. It's especially rare that I take an OVER when the total is this high like the 227-point total they have set for tonight's game between the Warriors and Blazers. It's still not high enough.
One quick look at recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that they should have no problem exceeding 227 points. They have combined for 242 and 236 points in their two meetings this season. That's an average of 239 combined points per game, which is roughly 12 points more than tonight's posted total of 227.
The OVER is 10-3 in Blazers last 13 games overall, including 5-0 in Blazers last five vs. Western Conference foes. The OVER is 4-0 in Warriors last four vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings, and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Golden State. Portland is 8-1 OVER after a combined score off 225 or more points this season. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
|
03-10-16 |
Hawks v. Raptors UNDER 199.5 |
|
96-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Raptors UNDER 199.5
The Atlanta Hawks have been the best defensive team in the NBA since the All-Star Break. Indeed, the Hawks have allowed an average of 86.5 points per game in regulation while winning five of their last six games overall. Having Thabo Sefolosha play bigger minutes has certainly been a key in that.
The Toronto Raptors get a lot of love for their offense, but they play at the second-slowest pace in the NBA at 95.4 possessions per game. Their defense has been great all season, giving up 98.3 points per game overall and 97.8 points per game at home.
Recent meetings between would certainly suggest that the oddsmakers have set this total too high. They have combined for 182, 185 and 199 points in their last three meetings. That's an average of 188.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight's posted total of 188.7.
Toronto is 8-1 to the UNDER vs. poor rebounding teams who are outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game this season. The UNDER is 10-4 in Hawks last 14 games following an ATS win. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
03-09-16 |
Clippers v. Thunder -5 |
Top |
108-120 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
20* Clippers/Thunder ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -5
The Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be out for serious revenge on the Los Angeles Clippers tonight. They blew a 20-plus point lead against the Clippers on March 2nd exactly one week ago today to lost 98-103 on the road.
The Thunder were outscored 35-13 in the 4th quarter alone, and that memory is fresh in their minds. It's safe to say that you can expect a huge effort from OKC tonight to try and avenge that defeat, this time at home.
The Thunder are 25-8 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 8.5 points per game. They have had two days off since beating the Bucks 104-96 on the road, so they will be fresh and ready to go. In fact, this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days as well.
Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing on 2 days' rest. The Clippers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win. The Thunder are 27-9-2 ATS in their last 38 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Thunder Wednesday.
|
03-09-16 |
Pistons v. Mavs -2.5 |
|
102-96 |
Loss |
-107 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -2.5
The Dallas Mavericks are going to be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday when they host the Detroit Pistons. That's because they have lost three in a row coming in with two of those losses coming by a combined 5 points. It's safe to say they are going to want to get back in the win column in a hurry.
In fact, going through the Mavs' entire season, I find that they have not lost four in a row at any point this year. That shows that they have been a very resilient team, and it also shows that the chances of them losing four in a row now is highly unlikely.
This 3-game losing streak has the Mavs undervalued as only 2.5-point home favorites, and couple that with the fact that the Pistons are 5-2 in their last seven games and overvalued, and it's clear to see that we are getting the Mavs at a big discount at home tonight. The Pistons are just 13-20 SU & 13-20 ATS on the road this year.
Detroit is 4-12 ATS in road games off a non-conference game this season. Dallas is 102-67 ATS in its last 169 games following a loss by 15 points or more. The Pistons are 5-17 ATS in road games vs. teams who allow 99-plus points per game this season. The Mavericks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Roll with the Mavericks Wednesday.
|
03-09-16 |
Grizzlies v. Celtics -9 |
|
96-116 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 46 m |
Show
|
15* Grizzlies/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Boston -9
The Memphis Grizzlies are in shambles right now. They are expected to be without their three best players tonight. They were already without Marc Gasol, but now Mike Conley has been ruled out, and Zach Randolph is doubtful. Not to mention Brendan Wright is out and Matt Barnes is questionable.
Somehow, the Grizzlies were able to beat the Cavaliers 106-103 on the road last time out without Gasol and Conley. That is highly unlikely to happen again here against the superior Celtics. That win over the Cavs also sets the Grizzlies up for a massive letdown spot. After all, this team just lost at home 100-109 to lowly Phoenix prior to that Cavs game.
The Celtics just keep rolling along and not getting any love despite being one of the best teams in the East. They have gone 16-5 in their last 21 games overall. They are coming off a loss on the road to Cleveland, but you have to go all the way back to January 18-20 to find the last time they lost two games in a row. They have also had three days' rest since that defeat to the Cavs, so they will be fresh and ready to go tonight.
Memphis is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games off a close win by 3 points or less. Boston is 50-33 ATS in its last 83 games when revenging a loss. The Grizzlies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games. The Celtics are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Take the Celtics Wednesday.
|
03-08-16 |
Hawks v. Jazz -1 |
Top |
91-84 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 32 m |
Show
|
25* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah Jazz -1
The Utah Jazz could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now. They have lost five of their last six games overall, but ended their 5-game skid with a 106-94 win in New Orleans last time out to get back on track. It's also worth nothing that they are coming off a tough 4-game road trip.
But now the Jazz are well-rested and ready to get back on track having last played on Saturday. They also return home where they are 19-12 on the season. The Jazz are currently the 9th seed in the West, so they really need to get it going. They are 1.5 games behind Houston for the No. 8 seed.
Conversely, the Atlanta Hawks couldn't be more overvalued right now. They are coming off back-to-back double-digit blowouts on the road against both Los Angeles teams. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, so the betting public is going to be all over them, which is why this line is only -1.
Atlanta is 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage between 40% and 49% this season. Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Atlanta) - off an upset win as a road underdog are 175-120 (59.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hawks are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 games playing on 2 days' rest. Bet the Jazz Tuesday.
|
03-07-16 |
Grizzlies +12.5 v. Cavs |
Top |
106-103 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
20* NBA No Brainer on Grizzlies +12.5 Memphis has been playing a lot better recently, with the lone exception when they play the Suns. But, yesterday was probably a lookahead to today's game, so I'm not too worried about the hiccup. Cleveland has won three in a row at home after their back-to-back road losses against Toronto and Washington, but this is a big number for them to be laying here tonight. There were only favored by 16 over the Lakers back on February 10th and Memphis is definitely more than 3.5 points better than LA. These two teams played back on October 28th with Cleveland winning by 30 points. That puts us in a nice revenge spot here tonight as underdogs revenging a home blowout loss of 20+ points against an opponent off a home win are 49-22 (69%) over the last 5 years. I'll take the big number here as Memphis keeps this game close.
|
03-06-16 |
Blazers v. Pistons +1 |
|
103-123 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week on Pistons +1 I normally don’t love teams coming off a back-to-back, but it’s Portland who should be tired coming into this game. The Blazers are playing their sixth road game in 9 nights, and while they have played well on the trip they have to be wearing down and looking forward to getting back home. The Pistons have done surprisingly well in back-to-backs recently. They dominated the Raptors 114-101 last week and pulled a 96-88 upset in Cleveland the time before that. Detroit’s actually covered in four straight in this spot. This is an important game for Detroit. They blew one they should have won last night in New York, and if they have any intention of making the playoffs they need to get one back here on Sunday. I think they respond with the win here.
|
03-05-16 |
Hawks v. Clippers UNDER 199.5 |
|
107-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* Late Night Total Bailout on Clippers/Hawks Under 199.5 I think the oddsmakers have set the bar a little high for this total on Saturday night. Atlanta has played solid defense all season long, giving up just 99.4 ppg to teams that are averaging 101.9, but in their last 5 games they have allowed on 90.4 while scoring 98.6. That includes two games against the Warriors too, the other 3 teams didn't get past 88. The Clippers are also dialing it up on the defensive end since the break. They allowed 86 to the Spurs, 84 to the Suns, 87 to the Nuggets, 95 to the Nets, and 98 to the Thunder. The only times they have given up 100 were to the Warriors and Kings. Two teams that play a lot faster pace than the Clippers do. Take the Under here tonight.
|
03-05-16 |
Pacers v. Wizards -2 |
|
100-99 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -2
I like Washington to bounce back here tonight against Indiana. The Wizards have been playing a lot better recently, winning 7 of their last 10 games. Indiana on the other hand has now lost four of their last five after losing in Charlotte last night. Washington beat Indiana by double digits on the road in mid-January which puts us in a nice situation here tonight. The Pacers are just 1-11 ATS when revenging a straight up loss as a favorite this season. Indiana has played a lot since the All-Star break, but they are only 5-13 ATS this season when playing their 8th game in two weeks. Lot of factors point towards the Wizards tonight, so we will lay the 2 points.
|
03-04-16 |
Knicks v. Celtics UNDER 210 |
|
104-105 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Celtics UNDER 210
The New York Knicks and Boston Celtics will play part in a defensive battle tonight. That's what usually happens when these two teams get together, and looking at recent meetings, it's easy to see that this 210-point total has been inflated.
The Celtics are known for shutting teams down, and they rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season. The Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace as they are 25th in the league as 95.9 possessions per game. The Knicks are also just 21st in offensive efficiency. They have been held to an average of 83.0 points per game in their last two, while the Celtics have allowed only 92.3 points/game in their last three.
The real key is the head-to-head history. The Celtics and Knicks have combined for 209 or fewer points in 20 of the last 21 meetings, including 186 points in their most recent meeting on February 2nd. That makes for a 20-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set of 210 points. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
03-04-16 |
Blazers v. Raptors -5 |
Top |
115-117 |
Loss |
-100 |
25 h 32 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Raptors -5
The Toronto Raptors are playing better than anyone in the Eastern Conference right now. They are 19-4 in their last 23 games overall and have their sights set on catching the Cleveland Cavaliers for the No. 1 seed in the East.
The Portland Trail Blazers are also playing well, but their recent run is more fools' gold than anything. And now the Blazers are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers. I faded them against the Celtics in their last game, a 93-116 loss as 6.5-point underdogs.
I'll fade them again tonight because this remains a bad spot for the Blazers. They are running on fumes right now as this will be their 6th road game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. They started showing signs of wearing down in the 2nd half against Boston, and it will carry over into this game tonight as well.
The Blazers are 2-13 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last two seasons. The Blazers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Raptors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. Bet the Raptors Friday.
|
03-03-16 |
Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 230 |
|
106-121 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 17 m |
Show
|
15* Thunder/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 230
The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back the UNDER in what I believe will be way more of a defensive battle than the oddsmakers and the betting public are expecting.
The betting public looks at the last game between these teams on Saturday and sees a final score of 118-121 in favor of the Warriors for 239 combined points. But you have to realize that game went to overtime, and it was tied 103-103 at the end of regulation for 206 combined points. So this total should be set closer to 206 than 230.
Familiarity favors a low-scoring game, too, and since these teams just played five days ago, they are very familiar with one another. Plus, Steph Curry and Andre Iguodala both may miss a 2nd consecutive game. Without those two last time out, they were tied with the Hawks 97-97 at the end of regulation for 194 combined points before eventually winning 109-105 in overtime.
These two teams are forming quite a rivalry, which brings out the best in each defensively. The Thunder do like to get up and down offensively, but they likely won't have a lot left in the tank to do so tonight. That's because they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after losing 98-103 on the road to the Clippers last night for 201 combined points.
These teams have combined for 224 or fewer points at the end of regulation in five of their last six meetings. That's why there is a ton of value with this UNDER 230. Curry played and scored a ridiculous 46 points against the Thunder on Saturday, but even then that game was only at 206 at the end of regulation. So even if Curry plays tonight, I still like this UNDER quite a bit. If he doesn't, that's just an added bonus and and easy winner for us. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
03-03-16 |
Kings v. Mavs -7 |
|
104-101 |
Loss |
-104 |
8 h 42 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -7
The Dallas Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game. It helps that they are healthy, but they also made a very sneaky move before the trade deadline to grab David Lee, who has provided huge contributions off the bench already.
Dallas is averaging 117.5 points per game and shooting 47.6 percent over its last eight games. The Mavericks have won three straight while scoring at least 121 points in four of their last five. They are coming off a 27-point win over the Timberwolves and a 13-point win over the Magic.
Now they get to face the reeling Sacramento Kings, who have lost four straight to fall five games back of the final playoff spot in the West. They have rarely been competitive as they've lost by 16, 10, 15 and 6 points despite playing three games at home. This is a very tough spot for the Kings, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a valiant comeback in the second half came up short in a 98-104 loss at Memphis last night.
Dallas will be looking to extend the NBA's second-longest home winning streak against any franchise. The Mavericks have won 22 straight home meetings with the Kings, and with the way they are playing right now, I look for that streak to extend to 23 tonight in blowout fashion.
The Kings are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Sacramento is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Dallas is 8-1 ATS in home games off a home win this season. These four trends combine for a 29-2 system backing Dallas. Take the Mavericks Thursday.
|
03-02-16 |
Blazers v. Celtics -5.5 |
|
93-116 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 59 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston Celtics -5.5
This play is as much of a fade of the Blazers as it is a play on the Celtics. This couldn't be a worse spot for the Blazers, and the Celtics are playing some great basketball heading in. It's the perfect storm and the reason I believe Boston should be a bigger favorite tonight.
The Celtics have won three straight and are now 14-4 in their last 18 games overall. They are clearly one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference because of their defense, ranking 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency. I love this matchup for the Celtics because of Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart, two of the best guard defenders in the NBA as they'll be matched up with the duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.
Look for Bradley and Smart to take this matchup personal in shutting down Lillard and McCollum. Their job will be much easier tonight considering the Blazers are running on fumes. Indeed, they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 5 days. That's about as tough a situation as you'll find in the NBA, and there's no question the Blazers are primed for one of their worst performances in a long time because of it.
Boston is 20-10 at home this season. The Celtics are 12-3 ATS when the total is 210 or more this season. The Blazers are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games. Portland is 6-14 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
The Celtics are 9-0 ATS vs. teams who win 51% to 60% of their games in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons. Boston is 7-0 ATS vs. teams who score 103-plus points per game this season. The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing Boston. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.
|
03-01-16 |
Magic v. Mavs -5.5 |
|
108-121 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -5.5
The Dallas Mavericks are back on track with wins in three of their last four games with two coming via blowout by 26 and 27 points. Now they get to face another weak team from the Eastern Conference tonight and should take care of business.
The Mavs have averaged 120.5 points per game in their last four contests. Chandler Parsons is playing is best basketball of the season, and David Lee has proven to be a huge acquisition as he has brought a lot of scoring punch off the bench. This team is really hitting its stride right now.
The Mavs will be out for revenge from a 104-110 overtime loss at Orlando on February 19 in their first game back from the All-Star Break. That was an extremely rare loss for Dallas in this series. Indeed, the Mavericks were 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their previous seven meetings with the Magic.
The Magic are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Dallas is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home games. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the Mavericks Tuesday.
|
03-01-16 |
Bulls v. Heat UNDER 201 |
Top |
111-129 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
|
25* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/Heat UNDER 201
The Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat will take part in a defensive battle tonight in Miami. These teams are known for their defense, and they are also known to play in low-scoring affairs almost every time they get together.
Miami ranks 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing just 100.2 points per 100 possessions. Chicago ranks 10th in defensive efficiency while giving up just 43.2% shooting on the season. The Heat rank 27th in pace this season as well, so they prefer to play at a slow tempo, which helps out their defense.
The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings. The Bulls and Heat have combined for 194 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings. They have averages just 176.4 combined points per game in their last seven meetings, which is roughly 25 points less than tonight's posted total of 201.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Bulls last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 6-0 in Heat last six vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Heat last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Combine these three trends with the UNDER being 6-0 in the last six meetings, and we have a perfect 20-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|
02-29-16 |
Jazz v. Celtics UNDER 204.5 |
|
95-100 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Celtics UNDER 204.5
The Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz are very familiar with one another after recently playing their first of two meetings this season. The Jazz won that game 111-93 for 204 combined points on February 19 behind one of their best shooting efforts of the season as they connected on 54.4% from the floor. That's not going to happen again, especially not in Boston this time around.
The fact of the matter is that this is a very high total between two teams that pride themselves on defense. Boston ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while Utah gives up just 98.1 points per game on 44.7% shooting. The Jazz take the air out of the ball offensively, ranking 30th in the NBA in pace at 93.3 possessions per game.
The Jazz and Celtics have combined for 204 or fewer points at the end of regulation in seven of their last eight meetings. They have combined to average 189.4 points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 204.5.
The UNDER is 12-3 in Jazz last 15 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. The UNDER is 15-7-1 in Jazz last 23 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Boston. Utah is 28-14 to the UNDER after playing a game as a home favorite over the last two seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|
02-28-16 |
Heat v. Knicks UNDER 198.5 |
|
98-81 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 11 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Knicks UNDER 198.5
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Miami Heat and New York Knicks. I fully expect a defensive battle, which has certainly been the case when these teams have gotten together in recent history. That should continue Sunday.
Miami has made its living on defense, ranking 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season. The Knicks, who rank 18th in offensive efficiency, will certainly struggle in this one. Both teams also prefer to play at a slow pace and take the air out of the ball. The Heat rank 28th in pace at 95.2 possessions per game, while the Knicks are 25th at 95.9 possessions per contest.
Back to the head-to-head history. The Heat and Knicks have combined for 198 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings. They have combined for 188, 175 and 173 points in their last three meetings, respectively. That's an average of 178.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 20 points less than tonight's posted total of 198.5.
Miami is 11-2 UNDER when revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite this season. Miami is 19-7 to the UNDER in its last 26 Sunday games. The Heat are 18-4 UNDER versus good ball handling teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Heat are 14-3 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers this season.
The UNDER is 39-18-1 in Heat last 58 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Knicks last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The UNDER is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings in New York. The UNDER is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|
02-28-16 |
Raptors v. Pistons +1 |
|
101-114 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Detroit Pistons +1
The Detroit Pistons should not be home underdogs to the Toronto Raptors tonight. They are playing very well coming into this game, and this is an awful spot for the Raptors as well.
The Pistons are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They went on the road and beat Cleveland and Milwaukee by a combined 19 points, while also topping Philadelphia by 20 points at home. They are clearly making a run at the playoffs right now and aren't about to be denied.
The Raptors are way overvalued right now. They have won four in a row coming in, but they are in a massive letdown spot here tonight. They are coming off a huge 99-97 home win over Cleveland in which Kyle Lowry hit a game-winner at the buzzer. Now, I fully expect the Raptors to fail to show up tonight off such a big win against the top team in the East.
Plays on any team (DETROIT) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog are 73-37 (66.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Pistons are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 home games. Also, the Raptors could be without leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (23.2 ppg), who missed Saturday's practice due to an illness. Take the Pistons Sunday.
|
02-27-16 |
Heat v. Celtics UNDER 211.5 |
|
89-101 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Celtics UNDER 211.5
The scoring in the NBA is up of late, which is going to provide some nice line value on the UNDERS. This game between the Celtics and Heat particularly stands out because these are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA, yet the total has been set at 211.5.
Boston ranks 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 100.2 points per 100 possessions. Miami is right behind at 6th, giving up 100.5 points per 100 possessions. While the Celtics prefer a fast pace, that is countered by the Heat, who rank 28th in the league in pace at 95.2 possessions per game.
The real key here is the head-to-head history between these teams. Miami and Boston typically play in low-scoring games. Indeed, they have combined for 200 or fewer points in seven straight meetings. They have combined for 200, 179, 190, 158, 184, 197 and 179 points in their last seven meetings, respectively. That's an average of 183.9 combined points per game, which is roughly 28 points less than today's posted total of 211.5. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|
02-26-16 |
Nuggets v. Mavs -5 |
Top |
116-122 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 12 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks -5
The Dallas Mavericks get the call as my favorite play in the Western Conference for the entire month of February on Friday night. They host the Denver Nuggets and will be highly motivated for a victory here.
That's because the Mavericks have lost three of their last four games overall. But they are well-rested and ready to go here as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days. Look for that extra rest to have them putting fourth one of their best efforts of the season.
Denver, meanwhile, is in a huge letdown spot off its 87-81 upset road win over the Clippers as 11-point dogs. This will be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Nuggets, who had lost three straight prior to that unlikely victory.
Dallas is 3-0 in its last three home meetings with Denver, winning by 11, 8 and 16 points, respectively. Plays on any team (DALLAS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 100 points or more four straight games are 27-9 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage of less than .400. Bet the Mavericks Friday.
|
02-26-16 |
Bulls v. Hawks -7 |
|
88-103 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
15* Bulls/Hawks ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Atlanta -7
The Atlanta Hawks have lost three straight and five of their last six games overall. It's safe to say that they will be highly motivated for a victory when the Chicago Bulls visit tonight on the ESPN stage.
The one victory for the Hawks during this stretch was a 113-90 blowout at Chicago as 4-point favorites. In fact, the Hawks have had the Bulls' number quite a bit here of late. The Hawks are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bulls with all four victories coming by 7 points or more.
Conversely, Chicago comes in overvalued due to having won three straight games, all of which came at home. But the Bulls 1-6 in their last seven road games with their only win coming against the Kings. Five of those six road losses came by 7 points or more, so they've rarely been competitive away from home.
The Bulls are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Chicago is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Hawks come in on 3 days' rest. Atlanta is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a double-digit home loss. The favorite is 37-15 ATS in the last 52 meetings. Take the Hawks Friday.
|
02-25-16 |
Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 216 |
|
107-112 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 216
The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks. It's easy to see that this total has been inflated, and we'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what should be a much lower-scoring affair than oddsmakers anticipate.
Both teams are coming off high-scoring games, which has forced the oddsmakers' hands. The Celtics have combined for 222 and 246 points in their last two games with the Nuggets and Timberwolves, while the Bucks have combined for 209 and 226 points in their last two games against the Hawks and Lakers.
Off a loss to the Timberwolves, look for the Celtics to focus on shoring up their defense tonight. They still rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They should shut down a Milwaukee team that ranks 24th in offensive efficiency. The Bucks prefer to play as a slow pace as they rank 22nd in pace at 96.5 possessions per game.
This has been the highest total we've seen in this series in a very long time as the previous high in recent memory was 208. The Celtics and Bucks have combined for 214 or fewer points in 36 of their last 37 meetings, making for a 36-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 216. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
02-24-16 |
Wizards v. Bulls UNDER 213 |
|
104-109 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
15* Wizards/Bulls ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 213
The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Wizards and Bulls tonight. For starters, this game will be nationally televised on ESPN, so both teams are going to bring their "A" games defensively.
Recent head-to-head history also suggests that this total has been inflated. 26 of the last 27 meetings between the Wizards and Bulls have seen 204 or fewer combined points. That makes for a 26-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set of 213, which is by far the biggest total in this series in quite some time.
The Wizards are a tired team who will be playing their 5th game in 7 days. That will prevent them from looking to fast break much at all. The Wizards have made an emphasis on defense of late, limiting their last five opponents to just 95.4 points per game and 42.4% shooting.
Chicago is 11-2 to the UNDER off a home win scoring 110 points or more over the last three seasons. The Bulls are 26-10 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two years. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|
02-23-16 |
Pelicans v. Wizards -4.5 |
|
89-109 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards -4.5
The Washington Wizards are showing excellent value as only 4.5-point home favorites over the hapless New Orleans Pelicans. Look for them to pick up this victory by 5-plus points to cover this low spread tonight.
Washington is on a mission post-All Star Break. At 25-29 on the season, it still has work to do just to make the playoffs. The Wizards have won two of three since the break despite playing a brutal stretch of three games in three days. They beat the Jazz by 14 and the Pistons by 12 at home before running out of gas and losing at Miami.
But now the Wizards have had two days off since and will be well-rested and ready to get back to dominating at home tonight, where they've won three straight by double-digits. They have shot 49.2 percent while holding opponents to an average of 89.7 points on 41.9 percent shooting in their last three at home.
The Pelicans are in a letdown spot off Anthony Davis' 59-point performance in an upset road win at Detroit. New Orleans is 3-13 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog over the last three seasons. The Pelicans are also 1-9 ATS in road games off a road win over the last two years. Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on two days' rest. The Pelicans are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 vs. Eastern Conference. Washington is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games following an ATS loss. Roll with the Wizards Tuesday.
|
02-22-16 |
Celtics -4.5 v. Wolves |
|
122-124 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 9 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4.5
The Boston Celtics have gone 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. I look for them to continue to roll tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves after winning by 20 in Denver last night.
The Timberwolves are one of the worst teams in the Western Conference this season. They are 17-39 overall and 9-20 in home games. They have lost their first two games out of the break with a 5-point loss at short-handed Memphis, and an 8-point loss at home to the lowly Knicks.
Boston beat Minnesota 113-99 in their first meeting this season. Minnesota is 2-11 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs. opponent this season. Boston is 15-1 ATS when playing its 2nd road games in 2 days over the last three seasons. The Celtics are 7-0 ATS in road games when the total is at least 210 points this season. Roll with the Celtics Monday.
|
02-21-16 |
Cavs v. Thunder -2.5 |
|
115-92 |
Loss |
-104 |
4 h 6 m |
Show
|
15* Cavs/Thunder ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. Rarely will you get the opportunity to back them as only 2.5-point home favorites, but that's the opportunity we are presented with Sunday.
The Thunder are 25-6 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 10 points per game. They are coming off a rare home loss to the Indiana Pacers. That was also their first and only game back from the All-Star Break, so they'll be extra motivated for their first win of the second half today.
Home-court advantage has been big in this series too as the home team is 3-0 in the last three meetings, including a 103-94 victory by the Thunder in their last home meeting. Cleveland is 0-8 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Thunder Sunday.
|
02-19-16 |
Celtics v. Jazz UNDER 196.5 |
Top |
93-111 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 49 m |
Show
|
20* Celtics/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196.5
The Utah Jazz are an UNDER machine with Rudy Gobert in the lineup. They have especially been profitable to the UNDER at home this season with a 16-10 record as a result of giving up just 93.4 points per game at home this year.
One reason the Jazz are such a great defensive team is because they prefer to play at a snail's pace. In fact, they rank dead last in the league in pace at 93.1 possessions per game. But the Celtics are no slouches defensively themselves as they rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.
The Celtics and Jazz have played in some very low-scoring games in recent meetings. They have combined for 169 and 189 points in their last two meetings. That's an average of 179 combined points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.5.
Utah is 8-1 to the UNDER in home games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games this season. The Jazz are 26-14 to the UNDER as a home favorite over the last two seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
02-19-16 |
Pacers v. Thunder UNDER 215 |
|
101-98 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
15* Pacers/Thunder ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 215
The Oklahoma City Thunder play defense at home. They are 19-11 to the UNDER in home games this season while giving up just 98.8 points per game. It's clear to me that this total has been set way too high tonight for that reason alone.
Oklahoma City is combining for roughly 208 points per game at home this season with their opponents. Indiana is combining for roughly 204 points per game on the road with their opponents this season. As you can see, both numbers are well below this 215-point total.
The Thunder and Pacers have combined for 212 or fewer points in 7 of their last 8 meetings as well. They are averaging 199.7 combined points per game in their last 7 meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 215.
Oklahoma City is 11-1 to the UNDER in home games off a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons. The Thunder are 12-1 to the UNDER after a game where they made 12 or more of their 3-point shots over the last two years. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
02-19-16 |
Pistons v. Wizards UNDER 209 |
|
86-98 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 19 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Wizards UNDER 209
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Washington Wizards and Detroit Pistons. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle that comes nowhere near this 209-point total tonight.
Recent head-to-head history also supports this play. The UNDER is 2-0-1 in the last three meetings. They Pistons and Wizards have combined for 192, 194 and 195 points in those three meetings. That's an average of 193.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 209.
Detroit is a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER in road games after having lost four of its last five games over the last two seasons. It is combining with its opponents for an average of 181.7 points per game in this spot. The UNDER is 8-1 in Wizards last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Look for the defensive intensity to be high in this game as both teams come out of the break fighting to make the playoffs. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
02-18-16 |
Bulls v. Cavs UNDER 207 |
|
95-106 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
15* Bulls/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 207
Death, taxes and the Bulls/Cavs playing in a low-scoring game are the only things that are certain in life. Both the Bulls and Cavs will be rusty from the long layoff due to the All-Star Break, which further makes me like this UNDER tonight.
The Bulls and Cavs have combined for 207 or fewer points in nine straight meetings. They have combined for 179, 192, 167, 207, 170, 195, 197, 191 and 193 points in those nine meetings, respectively. That's an average of 187.9 combined points per game, which is more than 19 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.
I just don't know where the Bulls are going to get their offense from right now. They are without leading scorer Jimmy Butler as well as 3-point specialist Nikola Mirotic and his 10.6 points per game. The Bulls were held to 90 and 91 points in their final two games before the break, and it's not going to get any easier against the Cavs tonight.
Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 29-6 (82.9%) over the last five seasons. Chicago is 8-0 UNDER when playing with 3 or more days' rest over the last two seasons. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
02-11-16 |
Pelicans +12 v. Thunder |
|
95-121 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
15* Pelicans/Thunder TNT ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +12
The New Orleans Pelicans are showing excellent value tonight as double-digit underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road. I like the way they are playing right now, and I look for a big effort from them tonight.
The Pelicans are 2-0 in their last two games with a 14-point win at Minnesota and a 4-point home win over red-hot Utah. I know the Pelicans played last night, which makes this the 2nd of a back-to-back, but they will be able to push through it knowing that this is their final game prior to the All-Star Break.
The Thunder have been consistently overvalued all season. They own one of the league's worst ATS record (20-32) this season because they are consistently laying double-digits. They have gone just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall despite going 7-2 SU because they haven't been able to cover these big spreads with any consistency.
New Orleans is actually 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three visits to OKC. It lost by 7 as 12-point dogs, won by 3 as 6-point dogs, and won by 2 as 7-point dogs in those three contests. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. NBA Northwest Division foes. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five games playing on 0 days' rest. The Thunder are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. OKC is 8-22-1 ATS in its last 31 games playing on 2 days' rest. Roll with the Pelicans Thursday.
|
02-10-16 |
Rockets v. Blazers UNDER 214 |
|
103-116 |
Loss |
-102 |
10 h 45 m |
Show
|
15* Rockets/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 214
The recent history between the Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers warrants a bet on the UNDER tonight when these two teams get together on National TV. It's easy to see that there's value with this UNDER 214 tonight, especially since both teams will be laying it all on the line defensively with this game airing on ESPN.
The Rockets and Blazers have combined for 211 or fewer points in seven straight meetings. They have combined for 207 or fewer in all games that did not go to overtime during this stretch. They have averaged 199 combined points per game in those seven meetings at the end of regulation, which is 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 214.
These teams just met four days ago on Saturday with the Blazers winning a defensive struggle by a final of 96-79. That's 175 combined points, and 39 points less than tonight's posted total of 214. While I don't expect the rematch to be as low-scoring, I do expect it to easily stay UNDER this total.
The UNDER is 7-1 in Blazers last eight games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 8-3 in Blazers last 11 games overall. The UNDER is 35-16-2 in Blazers last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|
02-10-16 |
Clippers v. Celtics UNDER 209 |
|
134-139 |
Loss |
-102 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Celtics UNDER 209
The Boston Celtics are extremely tired right now. They fought back from a huge 4th quarter deficit to tie the game late, only to lose to the Bucks 111-112 last night. They aren't going to have a lot left in the tank, so don't expect them to be running the fast break as much as they normally would.
The Los Angeles Clippers have had to adjust their style of play to a more half-court game since losing Blake Griffin. The results have produced a lot of UNDERS here of late. Indeed, the UNDER is 7-1-2 in Clippers last 10 games overall.
Los Angeles is shutting teams down defensively. It has allowed 93 or fewer points in seven of its last eight games overall. The Clippers have also been held to 100 or fewer points in five of their last nine games overall as well. The UNDER is 7-0 in Clippers last seven road games. The UNDER is 7-1 in Clippers last eight vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The UNDER is 5-1 in Celtics last six games playing on 0 days' rest. The UNDER is 17-8 in the last 25 meetings.
Los Angeles is 14-3 to the UNDER when playing its 3rd game in 4 days this season. Boston is 9-1 to the UNDER in home games vs. a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 14-2 to the UNDER versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|
02-09-16 |
Jazz v. Mavs -1.5 |
Top |
121-119 |
Loss |
-103 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks -1.5
We are getting the Dallas Mavericks at a tremendous discount at home tonight. They are only 1.5-point favorites over the Utah Jazz when I believe this line should be Dallas -5 or -6. We'll gladly take advantage as the Mavs essentially just have to win this game to cover the 1.5-point spread.
The Mavs are undervalued due to losing three of their last four games coming in. But they got back on track with a 114-110 win at Memphis last time out, and I look for them to string together consecutive victories here. The Mavs are 15-10 at home on the season.
The Jazz are overvalued due to winning six straight coming in. But five of those wins came at home against suspect competition in the Hornets, T'Wolves, Bulls, Nuggets and Bucks, while the only road win came against the lowly Phoenix Suns.
The Mavs simply own the Jazz, going 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings dating back to 2013. In fact, the Mavs are 10-0 in their last 10 home meetings with the Jazz dating back to 2010, and it is 22-2 at home against Utah since 2003. Enough said. Bet the Mavericks Tuesday.
|
02-09-16 |
Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 208.5 |
|
111-112 |
Loss |
-103 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Bucks UNDER 208.5
I fully expect the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics to play part in a defensive battle tonight as oddsmakers have set this total way too high with a 208.5 total set. When you look at the recent history between these teams, it's easy to see that there is value with the UNDER.
Indeed, the Celtics and Bucks have combined for 208 or fewer points in 25 of their last 26 meetings. That makes for a 25-1 system backing the UNDER tonight when you consider the 208.5-point total set in this one. In their only meeting this season, the Celtics won 99-83 on the road for 182 combined points.
While Boston likes to play at a fast pace, Milwaukee prefers to slow it down. The Bucks rank 24th in the NBA in pace at 96.1 possessions per game. They will control the tempo in this game tonight since they are playing at home.
Boston is 12-3 UNDER in its last 15 road games with a total set between 205 and 209.5 points. The Celtics are 15-7 UNDER in road games with a total of 200 or more this season. The UNDER is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 vs. NBA Central Division opponents. The UNDER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Milwaukee. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|
02-08-16 |
Blazers v. Grizzlies -3 |
|
112-106 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 53 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -3
The Memphis Grizzlies are showing tremendous value as only 3-point home favorites over the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. We'll gladly take advantage and back the Grizzlies in a game I believe they'll win going away.
The Grizzlies are playing well right now having gone 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall. But they are coming off an overtime home loss to the Mavericks, which I believe has them undervalued coming into this one. The Blazers are coming off a blowout road win at Houston, which has them overvalued coming in.
The Grizzlies are 19-8 SU at home this season, while the Blazers are 10-16 SU on the road. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings. The Grizzlies are 10-2 SU in their last 12 meetings with the Blazers.
Memphis is a perfect 8-0 SU in its last eight home meetings with Portland. The Grizzlies have won 15 of the past 18 meetings overall, including playoffs, so they clearly have the Blazers' number. Look for that dominance to continue tonight as we're catching them as small home favorites here. Take the Grizzlies Monday.
|
02-08-16 |
Magic v. Hawks UNDER 203 |
Top |
117-110 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 29 m |
Show
|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Magic/Hawks UNDER 203
The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic are playing in a home-and-home situation. They just played in Orlando on Sunday in a 96-94 victory by the Magic, and now they'll be playing in Atlanta this time around a day later.
Since these teams just played yesterday, they are obviously very familiar with one another. That makes me really like the UNDER in the rematch, because familiarity favors the defenses. It also doesn't hurt that they only combined to score 190 points yesterday, and now we're getting 13 extra points with this UNDER on a total of 203.
In fact, this has been a low-scoring series as it is. The Hawks and Magic have combined to score 203 or fewer points in seven straight meetings. They have combined for 190, 179, 203, 178, 183, 199 and 168 points in their last seven meetings, respectively. That's an average of 185.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 203. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|
02-06-16 |
Jazz v. Suns UNDER 190.5 |
|
98-89 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 9 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Suns UNDER 190.5
Since returning a healthy Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors to the lineup, the Utah Jazz have returned to being defensive juggernauts. In fact, they are the best defensive team in the NBA with those two on the floor.
That has really been on display here of late. Indeed, the Jazz have allowed 81, 81, 96, 90, 73, 95 and 86 points in their last seven games, respectively. Their job will be easy today against a Suns team that is missing its top two guards in Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe, as well as their instant-offense bench player in TJ Warren.
The Suns have been held to 98 or fewer points in eight of their last 10 games overall. They have been held to 89 and 85 points in their last two meetings with the Jazz as well. The last meeting at Phoenix saw 172 combined points in an 87-85 victory for the Suns. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Phoenix.
Phoenix is 15-4 to the UNDER in home games after allowing 110 points or more over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 15-5-1 in Jazz last 21 Saturday games. The UNDER is 7-0 in Suns last seven games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game. The 34-15-2 in Suns last 51 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|
02-06-16 |
Mavs v. Grizzlies UNDER 194.5 |
Top |
114-110 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 9 m |
Show
|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mavs/Grizzlies UNDER 194.5
The Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks both played last night. The Grizzlies won 91-85 at New York, while the Mavs lost 90-116 at home to the Spurs. So both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, and neither will have the energy to look to run much in this game as a result.
Both teams already play at slow paces as it is. Memphis ranks 27th in pace at 95.4 possessions per game, while Dallas ranks 21st at 96.6 possessions per game. The Grizzlies are also just 22nd in offensive efficiency, while the Mavs are 13th.
The last meeting between these teams on December 18 saw 185 combined points with a 97-88 home victory by the Mavs. The UNDER is 6-1 in Mavs last seven games following a loss by 10 points or more. The UNDER is 14-6-1 in Mavs last 21 games vs. Western Conference opponents.
The UNDER is 25-10 in Grizzlies last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 10-4 in Grizzlies last 14 games playing on 0 days' rest. The UNDER is 45-22-1 in Grizzlies last 68 Saturday games. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|
02-05-16 |
Celtics v. Cavs -7 |
Top |
104-103 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 14 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -7
The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight following their upset loss to the Charlotte Hornets on the road last time out. Look for them to return home and easily cover this spread against the Boston Celtics in a blowout victory.
That was a rare loss for the Cavaliers, who had won five straight games prior to that loss to the Hornets. Four of those five victories came by 8 points or more, including a 14-point win over the Spurs and a 22-point win over the Suns. They'll get back to playing solid basketball tonight at home, where they are 19-3 on the season.
The Cavaliers have owned the Celtics in recent meetings, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. All five victories have come by 8 points or more, and the last three have all come on the road. That's why they should have no problem winning by 8-plus points tonight to cover this generous 7-point spread.
Cleveland is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 home games after getting outrebounded by 20-plus boards in its previous game. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CLEVELAND) - after 4 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 2 or more consecutive unders are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Cavaliers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Bet the Cavaliers Friday.
|
02-05-16 |
Clippers v. Magic +4.5 |
|
107-93 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 43 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +4.5
The Orlando Magic are undervalued right now due to losing 10 of their last 11 games overall coming in. They desperately need to get back on track before the All-Star Break and make a push to make the playoffs. They still sit at 21-27 on the season and not too far out.
I have successfully backed the Magic in each of their last three contests. They won outright by 5 as 4-point dogs to the Celtics at home, lost to the Spurs by 15 as 16-point road dogs, and only lost to the Thunder by 3 as 11.5-point dogs. They are once again home underdogs tonight, and we'll take advantage.
The Clippers have either lost outright or won by exactly 2 points in four of their last six games overall. They lost at Toronto by 18 and at home to Minnesota by 6 despite being 10.5-point favorites. They only won by 2 at Indiana and by 2 at Atlanta. Their only bigger victories during this stretch both came at home over Chicago and the Lakers.
Orlando is 7-0 ATS after playing four consecutive games as an underdog this season. The Magic are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 vs. Western Conference. Orlando is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The home team is 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Magic Friday.
|
02-04-16 |
Raptors v. Blazers +1 |
|
110-103 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
|
15* Raptors/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland +1
The Portland Trail Blazers are showing great value as home underdogs to the Toronto Raptors tonight. We'll take advantage and back the Blazers behind one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the NBA.
The Blazers are 15-10 at home this season and come in playing their best basketball of the year. They have gone 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and they are 7-0 at home during this stretch with wins over the likes of the Thunder, Jazz and Hawks.
The Raptors could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now due to winning 12 of their last 13 games coming in. That has shown in their last four as they've gone 0-4 ATS with narrow wins over the Knicks, Pistons and Suns and a blowout road loss to the Nuggets by 19.
The Blazers own the Raptors, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings. They are also 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings, and 6-1 ATS in the last seven home meetings. Portland is 90-61 ATS in its last 151 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less. The Raptors are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Thursday games, while the Blazers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 Thursday games. Roll with the Blazers Thursday.
|
02-03-16 |
Magic +12 v. Thunder |
|
114-117 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic +12
The Orlando Magic have been undervalued here of late due to an 8-game losing streak. I backed them with success in each of their last two games. They won 119-114 over Boston as 4-point home dogs, and lost 92-107 at San Antonio as 16-point road dogs in a game that was close throughout and one they never trailed by more than 16.
The Magic continue to be undervalued here tonight as double-digit road dogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder. At the same time, the Thunder are overvalued due to winning 11 of their last 12. But the Thunder have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games with just one win by more than 10 points during that span. The Thunder are 10-18 ATS at home this season.
Orlando wants serious revenge on Oklahoma City after losing 136-139 (OT) in their first meeting this season. Russell Westbrook hit a game-tying 3-pointer at the end of regulation to force OT. The Magic have played the Thunder tough in recent meetings, only once losing by more than 8 points in their last six meetings. The Magic are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as well.
The Magic are 8-1 ATS after playing three consecutive games as an underdog this season. Orlando is 12-4 ATS in non-conference games this season. Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (ORLANDO) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 53-25 (67.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Magic are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Thunder are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. Take the Magic Wednesday.
|
02-03-16 |
Warriors v. Wizards +11 |
Top |
134-121 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 37 m |
Show
|
20* Warriors/Wizards ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Washington +11
The Washington Wizards are showing excellent value tonight as double-digit home underdogs to the Golden State Warriors. I look for them to keep this game close for four quarters and to possibly pull off the upset in the end.
The Wizards come into this game undervalued because they have underachieved on the season, going just 21-25 to this point. They have also lost four of their last five coming in, so the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.
The Warriors are overvalued due to having the league's best record at 44-4. They have also won seven straight coming in, so the betting public continues to back them at an alarming rate. Oddsmakers aren't just going to keep letting the public win on the Warriors, so they're forced to over-adjust, providing excellent line value to fade them here tonight.
Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (GOLDEN STATE) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game are 59-33 (64.1%) ATS since 1996. Golden State is 4-13 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Warriors are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Wizards are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up loss. Bet the Wizards Wednesday.
|
02-02-16 |
Heat v. Rockets -4 |
|
102-115 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 55 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -4
The Houston Rockets come into this game undervalued due to a 3-game losing streak. That makes them highly motivated for a victory here tonight as the three losses have come to the Spurs, Thunder and Wizards with two of them on the road, which has been no bargain.
The Miami Heat come into this game overvalued due to a 4-game winning streak. Three of the four wins came by 5 points or less. But the Heat won all four games against Eastern Conference opponents, and now they'll have to take a step up in competition against the West here.
This is a better scheduling spot for the Rockets, too. They come in on two days' rest, while the Heat come in on just one day of rest, and this will be their 12th road game in their last 14 contests. The Rockets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games playing on two days' rest. The home team has gone 5-1 SU in the last six meetings between these teams.
The Heat are 17-39-2 ATS in their last 58 games following a straight up win. The Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Plays on any team (HOUSTON) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog are 70-35 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Rockets Tuesday.
|
02-01-16 |
Magic +16 v. Spurs |
|
92-107 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +16
The San Antonio Spurs are simply laying too many points tonight against the Orlando Magic. They are overvalued due to their 25-0 home record, which is impressive, but it's going to make it increasingly more difficult to cover these massive spreads.
The Spurs have recently been blown out by 30 by the Warriors and by 14 by the Cavaliers in two of their last three games, and they have to be questioning themselves right now. There's no question this is a great team, but they could definitely suffer a hangover from those two losses to two of the best teams in the NBA.
The Magic are undervalued right now due to losing eight of their last nine games overall. But six of those losses came by single-digits, so they were simply unfortunate in close games. They got a big 119-114 win against Boston yesterday to end this skid, and should come into this game against the Spurs with a lot more confidence as a result.
Orlando has played San Antonio tough in its last two road meetings. It only lost by 7 as 13.5-point dogs and by 9 as 16-point dogs in his last two trips to San Antonio. The Magic haven't lost by more than 14 in any of their last seven trips to San Antonio, making for a perfect 7-0 system backing them pertaining to this 16-point spread.
The Magic are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. Western Conference opponents. Orlando is 8-1 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season. Plays on road underdogs (ORLANDO) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1996. The Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the Magic Monday.
|
02-01-16 |
Grizzlies v. Pelicans -2 |
Top |
110-95 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 47 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2
The New Orleans Pelicans are showing great value as small home favorites over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. I'll gladly back them as only 2-point favorites here as they continue making a surge prior to the All-Star Break to try and inch closer to the 8th seed in the playoffs.
The Pelicans have gone 7-2 SU in their last nine games overall. Their last five losses have all come by 5 points or less, which is how close they are to being 12-0 in their last 12 games. Anthony Davis is back healthy, and he makes all the difference for this team.
One of those losses came 99-101 at Memphis on January 18, so the Pelicans will be out for revenge in the rematch only two weeks later, but it's at home this time around. The Pelicans are 13-10 at home this season, while the Grizzlies are just 9-13 on the road.
Memphis is overvalued right now due to winning 9 of its last 11, but nine of those games have come at home. In its two road games during this stretch, it barely won 102-101 at Denver and lost 101-106 at Minnesota. The Grizzlies simply are not very good on the road this year.
The Grizzlies are 2-10 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season. The home team is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings in this series. The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. The Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home meetings with Memphis. Bet the Pelicans Monday.
|
01-31-16 |
Celtics v. Magic +4.5 |
|
114-119 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 54 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Orlando Magic +4.5
I love these home-and-home situations in the NBA. A home-and-home situation is where two teams square off in two consecutive games on each other's floor. That's the case here with the Orlando Magic and Boston Celtics Sunday.
Orlando lost 94-113 at Boston on Friday in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate. The Celtics turned a 2-point, 3rd quarter lead into a blowout victory in the 4th quarter. Now, the Magic get the Celtics at home this time around, and they will be in serious revenge mode.
Adding to the Magic's motivation is the fact that they need to get on track going into the All-Star Break after losing eight straight games coming in. This team is not as bad as the results have shown of late as seven of their last nine losses have come by single-digits, but they've simply had poor luck in close games of late.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series of late as the home team is a perfect 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings. I fully expect the Magic to end their losing streak and to get revenge on the Celtics Sunday with an outright victory. Take the Magic Sunday.
|
01-30-16 |
Kings v. Grizzlies -2.5 |
Top |
117-121 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 5 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5
This is a very generous line from oddsmakers tonight. The Memphis Grizzlies should be much higher than just 2.5-point home favorites over the Sacramento Kings. We'll gladly take advantage and back the Grizzlies at a discount here.
Memphis comes in playing its best basketball of the season. It is 8-2 in its last 10 games overall. The Grizzlies have really been doing some serious damage at home, going 18-7 at home on the season, including 11-1 in their last 12 home games overall. Yet they're only 2.5-point favorites? Give me a break.
The Kings are in a tough scheduling spot as they will be playing their 3rd straight road games after back-to-back blowout losses to the Blazers (by 15) and Pelicans (by 9). They will also be playing their 7th game in 11 days, and they have been showing signs of wearing down. Plus, the Kings are 8-14 on the road this season, giving up 109.2 points per game away from home.
The Grizzlies have owned the Kings to boot. They are 11-1 SU in their last 12 meetings, including a 103-89 road victory as 4-point favorites in their lone meeting this season. Now they are only 2.5-point home favorites in the rematch? Again, it doesn't make sense, and I don't believe it's one of those situations where it's too good to be true. The Kings are simply overvalued right now. Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.
|
01-29-16 |
Wolves v. Jazz UNDER 195.5 |
|
90-103 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Jazz UNDER 195.5
The Utah Jazz recently returned their two best players in Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors. These two are extremely important because of their defense, which has led to some tremendous efforts on that end of the floor of late for the Jazz.
They have held their last three opponents to 86, 95 and 73 points for an average of 84.7 points per game. They will make life difficult on the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight, who rank 21st in the NBA in offensive efficiency. This game will be played at a snail's pace considering the Jazz rank last in the NBA in pace at 93.2 possessions per game. The Timberwolves are 19th in pace at 97.2 possessions per game.
These teams are known for playing in low-scoring affairs, anyways. The Jazz and Timberwolves have combined for 194 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last five meetings. They've combined for 174, 188, 188, 190 and 194 points in their last five meetings. That's an average of 186.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 9 points less than tonight's posted total of 195.5.
Utah is 20-6 to the UNDER after allowing 85 points or less over the last two seasons. Minnesota is 11-2 UNDER vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 36% or more of their attempts this season. Utah is 24-6 to the UNDER vs. poor 3-point shooting teams who make 33% or less of their attempts over the last two years. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
01-29-16 |
Suns v. Knicks UNDER 203.5 |
Top |
84-102 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Suns/Knicks UNDER 203.5
The New York Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 93-103 loss at Toronto last night. They will be tired, and they could be short-handed again. I look for them to be playing this game at a snail's pace because of their fatigue and their lack of players.
Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis and Jose Calderon all sat out last night against the Raptors, and it's unlikely that all three will return tonight. Those are three starters that the Knicks just cannot play without and be any good, and they were fortunate to stay within even 10 points of the Raptors last night, who clearly let off the gas in the second half. The Knicks have scored 93, 88 and 84 points in three of their last four games.
The Phoenix Suns have injuries of their own that have hurt their offensive production. They are playing without their two best players in starting guards Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe. Those were the two guys they could not afford to lose this season, and they have been held to 98 or fewer points in seven of their last nine games as a result.
This has been a low-scoring series even when guys have been healthy. Indeed, the Knicks and Suns have combined for 191, 189, 200, 184 and 196 points at the end of regulation in their last five meetings. That's an average of 192.0 combined points per game, which is nearly 12 points less than tonight's posted total of 203.5. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
01-29-16 |
Magic +8 v. Celtics |
Top |
94-113 |
Loss |
-101 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
25* NBA Pre-All Star Break GAME OF THE YEAR on Orlando Magic +8
The Orlando Magic are simply desperate for a win tonight. They have lost seven straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall coming in. It's safe to say that they will be laying it all on the line to get a victory tonight, and they should have a lot of energy to give considering they come in on two days' rest.
It's not like the Magic haven't been competitive during their 7-game losing streak, though. They have just had poor luck in close games as six of the seven were decided by single-digits, including five by 6 points or fewer. Getting 8 points here is a great value given the situation for the Magic, and it's clearly an inflated line due to this losing streak.
It's the perfect storm as the Celtics come in overvalued due to going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. The Celtics are also the more tired team right now as they will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. Asking them to win this game by 9-plus points to beat us is simply asking too much.
The Magic have had the Celtics' number in recent meetings, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, including a 110-91 home victory in their only meeting this season. Orlando is 8-1 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog this season. Plays on road underdogs (ORLANDO) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 28-6 (82.4%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Magic Friday.
|
01-28-16 |
Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 196 |
|
83-103 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 2 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Grizzlies UNDER 196
Oddsmakers have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Memphis Grizzlies. These are two offensively-challenged teams who rely on defense and playing at a slow tempo to win games.
The Grizzlies rank 24th in offensive efficiency, while the Bucks rank 19th. Memphis ranks 27th in the NBA in pace at 95.4 possessions per game, while Milwaukee is 24th at 96.1 possessions per contest. This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring game given these stats.
The UNDER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the Bucks and Grizzlies. They have combined for 189 or fewer points in five straight meetings with combined finals of 179, 185, 189, 159 and 170 points. That's an average of 176.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 20 points less than tonight's posted total of 196.
Memphis is 9-1 to the UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Bucks last five games following a win, and 6-1 in Bucks last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|
01-28-16 |
Knicks +10.5 v. Raptors |
Top |
93-103 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks +10.5
The New York Knicks are simply catching too many points tonight against the Toronto Raptors. Asking the Raptors to win by double-digits tonight to beat us is simply asking too much, so we'll side with the road underdog Knicks in this one.
The Knicks have been undervalued all season, so it's no surprise that they continue to be here. They have gone 27-20 ATS in all games, including 14-10 ATS in road games. They are hungry for a win tonight following three consecutive losses, including an overtime loss to Oklahoma City last time out on Tuesday.
The Raptors could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now. That's because they've gone 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, and the betting public has taken notice, driving this line all the way up to 10.5. This is the Raptors' 2nd-biggest spread since the start of this winning streak with a previous high of 11.
New York is 13-5 ATS after having lost four or five of its last six games this season. The Knicks are 8-1 ATS versus teams who outrebound their opponents by 3-plus boards per game this season. New York is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Knicks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Toronto is 0-6 ATS in its last six Thursday games. New York is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Toronto. The underdog is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Bet the Knicks Thursday.
|
01-27-16 |
Mavs +17 v. Warriors |
|
107-127 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 46 m |
Show
|
15* Mavs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas +17
The Golden State Warriors are in a massive letdown spot here tonight at home against the Dallas Mavericks. They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a dominant 120-90 home win over the San Antonio Spurs on Monday. That result has them overvalued here.
The Mavericks were in a letdown spot last night against the Lakers as they were looking ahead to this game. They managed to win that game 92-90 despite not even showing up. But that narrow win over a poor team has them undervalued here. I look for the Mavs to come back with an all-out effort tonight.
The Warriors have only beaten the Mavs by more than this 17-point margin once in the last 14 meetings, making for a 13-1 system backing the Mavs pertaining to this massive spread tonight. Dallas beat Golden State 114-91 at home in their first and only meeting this season. Granted, it was without Steph Curry, but it was impressive nonetheless because the Mavs were 3.5-point dogs.
The Mavericks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. The Mavericks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss. The Warriors are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the Mavericks Wednesday.
|
01-27-16 |
Clippers v. Hawks -4 |
Top |
85-83 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Hawks -4
This is a great spot to fade the Los Angeles Clippers. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days as they wrap up a 5-game road trip at Atlanta tonight. They will have nothing left in the tank for this one.
Meanwhile, the Hawks come in well-rested and ready to go. This will be just their 3rd game in 6 days as they had yesterday off following a 119-105 win at Denver. Now the Hawks get to return home where they are 15-7 on the season and outscoring opponents by 5.9 points per game.
The Hawks have had the Clippers' number in recent meetings, going 4-1 SU & and a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Their only loss during this stretch came by a single point 109-108 in Los Angeles. Three of their four wins came by 9 points or more.
The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a straight up win. The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Atlanta. Bet the Hawks Wednesday.
|
01-26-16 |
Wizards +8 v. Raptors |
Top |
89-106 |
Loss |
-107 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +8
The Washington Wizards are showing excellent value tonight as big road underdogs to the Toronto Raptors. They got blown out of the building last night by the Celtics, so that result has the betting public wanting nothing to do with them. Now is the time to jump on the Wizards at a great price.
Washington showed some rust after a 4-day layoff yesterday, shooting just 42.7% from the field in the loss to the Celtics. That's why I'm not concerned that they'll now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, because they had four days off before that game. They will come back with a much sharper performance tonight.
The Wizards have actually played their best basketball on the road this season, going 10-8 SU & 11-7 ATS in all road games. In fact, the Wizards are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five road games, winning at Indiana (by 14), at Chicago (by 14), at Orlando (by 6), at Brooklyn (by 15), while narrowly losing at Toronto (by 3).
Now the Wizards will be playing with triple revenge after losing the first three meetings with the Raptors this season, including that 3-point heartbreaker on the road. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Toronto, not once losing by more than 3 points, and pulling off two outright upsets in the process. The Wizards are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Raptors. The road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
Washington is 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last two seasons. The Wizards are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games following two consecutive home games. Plays against any team (TORONTO) - after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off a home loss by 10 points or more are 49-26 (65.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Wizards are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss. Roll with the Wizards Tuesday.
|
01-26-16 |
Clippers v. Pacers +1.5 |
|
91-89 |
Loss |
-109 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Indiana Pacers +1.5
The Indiana Pacers are in desperate need of a win right now. They went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games heading into this game with five of those contests played on the road. It was a brutal stretch, but now they return home motivated for a victory.
The Pacers should be primed for a big performance because they have had two days' rest since last playing in Sacramento on Saturday. They return home where they are 13-6 SU & 11-8 ATS on the season, outscoring opponents by nearly 6 points per game.
The Clippers are finally starting to show signs of missing Blake Griffin. They have lost three of their last five games overall with blowout road losses to Cleveland (by 13) and Toronto (by 18) in the process. The Pacers are 13-5 SU in their last 18 home meetings with the Clippers.
Indiana is 9-1 ATS when playing with two days' rest this season, and 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games on two days' rest. The Pacers clearly benefit from getting extra time off. Indiana is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Pacers Tuesday.
|
01-25-16 |
Rockets v. Pelicans -4.5 |
|
112-111 |
Loss |
-107 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4.5
I've been riding the New Orleans Pelicans with a ton of success of late. I'll continue riding them tonight as the odds simply have not caught up to how well they are playing right now. They should be more than 4.5-point home favorites over the Houston Rockets tonight.
The Pelicans are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Their last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, which is how close they are to being 9-0 in their last nine games. Four of their last five victories have come by 12 points or more, so they are dominating the opposition.
Houston is in a tough spot tonight as it will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days. This is a tired team already, and making matters worse is the fact that the Rockets are expected to be without Dwight Howard. The Pelicans had yesterday off and will be the fresher team. Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 76-39 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Pelicans are 16-7-1 ATS in the last 24 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five home meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well. Take the Pelicans Monday.
|
01-25-16 |
Celtics v. Wizards -2.5 |
|
116-91 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -2.5
The Washington Wizards are showing excellent value as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Boston Celtics tonight. There are a number of factors in favor of the Wizards, not the least of which is the fact that they'll be highly motivated to avoid the season sweep after losing their first three meetings with Boston this year.
The Wizards have been playing well of late. They are 5-2 in their last seven games overall, which includes blowout road wins over Chicago (by 14) and Indiana (by 14), as well as a blowout home win over Miami (by 19). One of their two losses was a tough 117-119 home loss to these Celtics on January 16, so they'll be motivated to avenge that defeat just over a week ago.
Washington will be the much more rested team heading in. Indeed, it has had a whopping four days off in between games, so it will be fresh and ready to go. Boston will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 7th game in 11 days, so it is running on fumes right now. Look for the Wizards to win all of the hustle plays tonight.
Plays on home favorites (WASHINGTON) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival are 63-30 (67.7%) ATS since 1996. The Wizards are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Roll with the Wizards Monday.
|
01-24-16 |
Clippers v. Raptors -2 |
|
94-112 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -2
The Toronto Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season heading into this game with the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday. I look for them to continue to roll tonight and to easily cover this 2-point spread.
Toronto has gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall with all six of the wins coming by 6 points or more, including five by 9 points or more. The Clippers are playing well, too, but they are still without Blake Griffin. Plus, this will be their 3rd road game in 4 days, so it's a tough spot for them.
The Raptors have had the Clippers' number in recent meetings. Indeed, the Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Clippers. They won by 11 points on the road, by 16 at home, and by 12 on the road, so these games haven't even been close.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996. The Clippers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Toronto is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 meetings with Los Angeles, including 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings. Bet the Raptors Sunday.
|
01-23-16 |
Hawks v. Suns UNDER 207 |
|
95-98 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 31 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Suns UNDER 207
The books have set the bar way too high in this game tonight between the Atlanta Hawks and Phoenix Suns. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle, which has been the case in recent meetings between these teams as well.
Indeed, the UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 165, 183 and 197 points. That's an average of just 181.7 combined points per game, which is more than 25 points less than tonight's posted total of 207. All three previous totals were set at 200-plus points as well.
Phoenix is having trouble scoring due to all of its injuries. It has scored 97 or fewer points in five of its last six games, including just 90.0 points per game in its last three. The Suns are an absolute mash unit right now, with the key being them missing their two starting guards in Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. But P.J. Tucker, Mirza Teletovic and Markieff Morris are all questionable to play tonight as well.
Atlanta is 11-1 to the UNDER after two straight games where its opponent was called for 18 or fewer fouls this season. Phoenix is 14-4 UNDER in home games after allowing 110 points or more over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Hawks last four games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
|
01-23-16 |
Bucks v. Pelicans -5.5 |
|
99-116 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -5.5
Despite being just 15-27 on the season, the New Orleans Pelicans are just four games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They are doing their best to finish strong prior to the All-Star Break to close the gap.
Indeed, New Orleans is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. It won by 12 at Sacramento, by 2 against Charlotte, by 15 over Minnesota and by 16 over Detroit. Its last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, so it is very close to being 8-0 in its last eight games overall.
Now the Pelicans get to host a tired Milwaukee Bucks team that is coming off a 98-102 loss at Houston last night. Now the Bucks will be playing the second of a back-to-back, while the Pelicans had Friday off following their blowout home win over the Pistons on Thursday. The rest situation clearly favors the Pelicans.
New Orleans has had Milwaukee's number in recent meetings, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Pelicans are also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after 4 or more consecutive overs against opponent after 2 or more consecutive unders are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the Pelicans Saturday.
|
01-22-16 |
Bulls v. Celtics -3 |
Top |
101-110 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics -3
The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as only 3-point home favorites over the Chicago Bulls tonight. They are going to be highly motivated for a win after back-to-back road losses to Dallas (in OT) and Toronto (by 6). They had won three straight prior to those two close losses.
The Chicago Bulls are not playing well at all right now. They have gone 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall, including a 31-point home loss to the Warriors on Wednesday. They needed overtime to beat the 76ers for one of their two wins during this stretch, and they lost to the Hawks by 15 and Wizards by 14 as well.
The Bulls are just 8-9 on the road this season, giving up a whopping 105.2 points per game away from home. Boston is 11-10 at home, outscoring teams by 4.2 points per game and scoring 103.0 points per game at home. The home team has won three of the last four meetings in this series.
Boston is 11-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road games over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 42-23 ATS in their last 65 games off two straight losses by 6 points or less. The Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Chicago is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games. Bet the Celtics Friday.
|
01-21-16 |
Hawks v. Kings -1 |
|
88-91 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 8 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -1
With an 18-23 record on the season, the Sacramento Kings would actually be the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference if the season were to end today. They have put themselves in this position with some excellent play over the last few weeks.
Indeed, the Kings are 6-3 in their last nine games overall with a 1-point loss to Dallas and another loss to Golden State. They are coming off a 3-0 road trip in which they beat the Jazz, Clippers and Lakers. This is a team that is only going to continue to get better.
While the Kings will be playing the second of a back-to-back after topping the Lakers 112-93 last night, they had three days off prior to that game, so they won't be tired. The same cannot be said for the Hawks, who will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after their 104-98 win in Portland last night. The difference is that the Hawks will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days, while this is just the 2nd game in 5 days for Sacramento.
The Kings are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a win. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take the Kings Thursday.
|
01-21-16 |
Pistons v. Pelicans -1.5 |
Top |
99-115 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 31 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5
Even after their poor 14-27 start to the season, the New Orleans Pelicans are still well within reach of the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. They are finally playing up to their potential of late and should continue to play well at home tonight against the Detroit Pistons.
The Pelicans have won three of their last four games overall. Their last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, so they have been very close to putting together a 7-game winning streak. They opened their 7-game home stand with a 114-99 beat down of Minnesota, and now they'll be playing their second game on this home stand.
They get to face the Detroit Pistons, who are in an awful spot tonight. Detroit will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a high-scoring affair with the Rockets last night. The Pistons won that game 123-114, but they were fortunate that Dwight Howard had to leave the game with an injury in the first minute of the game.
The Pelicans have owned the Pistons, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. In fact, the Pelicans are 6-0 SU in their last six home meetings with the Pistons as well. They essentially just have to win the game with this 2-point spread, so I thing we're getting them at a great value tonight give the situation for Detroit. Bet the Pelicans Thursday.
|
01-20-16 |
Heat v. Wizards -4 |
|
87-106 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -4
The Washington Wizards are starting to get healthy and will be a dangerous team going forward. John Wall, Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat and Nene are the core of this team, and all four are healthy now. Look for the Wizards to make a run after a frustrating, injury-plagued first half of the season.
The Wizards have won four of their last six coming in, which includes impressive double-digit road victories over the Magic (by 16), Bulls (by 14) and Pacers (by 14). But they are back to being undervalued after two straight home losses to the Celtics and Blazers.
The Miami Heat are playing their worst basketball of the season coming in. They have gone 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall. That includes a 79-91 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks last night. That means they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days, which is a very tough spot. They are without their top two point guards in Goran Dragic and Beno Udrih, which makes matters worse.
The Wizards are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss. Washington is 14-6 ATS after playing a home game this season. Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit home loss. Bet the Wizards Wednesday.
|
01-20-16 |
76ers v. Magic -7 |
|
96-87 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -7
After getting off to a promising 19-13 start this season, the Orlando Magic have lost seven of their last eight games overall to fall to .500 at 20-20. It's safe to say that they are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight to end this skid.
They will have no problem getting back on track against the league's worst team in the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are 5-38 on the season, but they actually come into this game overvalued due to going 4-0 ATS in their last four games. The Magic have gone 2-7 ATS in their last nine games, so they come in undervalued as only 7-point favorites.
The Magic have gone 26-6 in their last 32 meetings with the 76ers, including 13-2 in their last 15 home meetings. Orlando won 105-97 on the road as 3-point favorites in their first and only meeting this season.
Orlando is 8-1 ATS vs. Atlantic Division opponents this season. The Magic are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The 76ers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Philadelphia is 2-22 on the road this season, getting outscored by 10.5 points per game. Roll with the Magic Wednesday.
|
01-19-16 |
Wolves v. Pelicans -5 |
|
99-114 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Tuesday ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -5
Despite their poor 13-27 start, the New Orleans Pelicans are within striking distance of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They certainly are looking at this upcoming 7-game home stand as a chance to get right back in it.
The Pelicans have played the third-toughest schedule in the NBA up to this point. They have played 23 road games compared to 17 home games. Now that they are healthy, they are playing much betting. Each of their last four losses have come by 5 points or less, and they have won two of their last three coming in.
Now they get to take on a Timberwolves team that is 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This is also a Minnesota team that they have dominated, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with wins by 12, 22, 8, 48 and 7 points, respectively. The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Minnesota is 1-13 ATS after covering the spread in three of its last four games over the last two seasons. The Timberwolves are 1-9 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season. The Timberwolves are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Roll with the Pelicans Tuesday.
|
01-18-16 |
Warriors v. Cavs -3 |
Top |
132-98 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 40 m |
Show
|
20* Warriors/Cavs TNT Monday No-Brainer on Cleveland -3
The Cleveland Cavaliers will be more motivated for a victory Monday than they have been at any other point this season. That's because they want revenge on the Golden State Warriors, who they not only lost to in the NBA Finals, but also who they lost to on the road on Christmas Day in their first meeting this season.
But the Cavaliers have been a completely different team since they've gotten healthy. They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the San Antonio Spurs by a final of 99-95. That's not a bad loss at all considering the Spurs are 24-0 at home this season.
The Warriors have been leaking oil here of late and have proven to be very beatable. They have gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. They have lost two of their last three games, both coming on the road to Denver (110-112) and Detroit (95-113). Now they have to take on a well-rested Cavaliers team that has had two days off in between games.
The Cavs are 15-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points per game. Cleveland is 8-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or less over the last two seasons. The Cavs are 8-0 ATS after playing four consecutive road games over the last two years. These three trends combine for a 31-1 system backing Cleveland. Bet the Cavaliers Monday.
|
01-17-16 |
Mavs +12 v. Spurs |
|
83-112 |
Loss |
-102 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on Dallas +12
The San Antonio Spurs are way overvalued right now due to their perfect 23-0 home record on the season. While they may improve to 24-0, asking them to beat the Mavericks by 12-plus points to cover this spread is asking too much tonight.
The Mavericks have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this year. They are 23-18 SU & 24-17 ATS on the season. Their starters will essentially be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days after resting against the Thunder five days ago, so they will be well-rested and ready to go.
The Mavs have already proven they can hang with the Spurs on the road this season. They only lost 83-88 as 10-point road underdogs in their first and only meeting this year. The Spurs are in a letdown spot here, too, after beating the Cavaliers 99-95 on National TV last time out.
Dallas is 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams who allow 43% shooting or less this season. Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite are 48-25 (65.8%) ATS since 1996. The Mavs are 6-0 ATS in their last six Sunday games. The underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the Mavs are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the Mavericks Sunday.
|
01-16-16 |
Celtics -1.5 v. Wizards |
|
119-117 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -1.5
The Boston Celtics are back on track after losing six of seven games during their worst stretch of the season. But all six losses came by 9 points or less, so they simply didn't get it done in close games. They have put together back-to-back blowout wins over Indiana (103-94) and Phoenix (117-103) since.
Yes, the Celtics will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days, but this is one of my favorite teams to back on short rest because they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. They'll be up against a short-handed Wizards team tonight that is also playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.
Boston has absolutely owned Washington in two meetings this season. It won 118-98 back on November 6 and 111-78 on November 27. I look for more of the same from the Celtics here even though they'll be on the road this time.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 28-11 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Celtics are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 games playing on 0 days rest. Boston is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 games following a win. The Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Roll with the Celtics Saturday.
|
01-15-16 |
Cavs v. Rockets +1 |
|
91-77 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* Cavs/Rockets ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Houston +1
The Houston Rockets come in playing their best basketball of the season. They are 5-0 in their last five games overall and looking for a 6th straight victory tonight, which they'll be motivated to get. The Rockets have also gone 10-2 in their last 12 home games overall.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a very tough spot. They are coming off a hard-fought 95-99 road loss at San Antonio last night, and now they'll be playing their 6th straight road game. This second of a back-to-back situation is very tough, and they'll likely suffer a hangover from that defeat to the Spurs last night.
Houston has simply owned Cleveland in recent meetings. Indeed, it is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in six meetings with the Cavaliers over the last three seasons. The home team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home meetings with the Cavaliers.
Cleveland is 1-11 ATS vs. teams who commit 16 or more turnovers per game over the last two seasons. Houston is 9-1 ATS in home games vs. good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons. The Cavaliers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on 0 days rest. Roll with the Rockets Friday.
|
01-15-16 |
Mavs -1.5 v. Bulls |
|
83-77 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -1.5
This is a great spot to back to the Dallas Mavericks and a terrible one to put your money on the Chicago Bulls. As a result, we'll back the Mavericks in a game that they just need to win to cover with this small 1.5-point spread.
The Mavericks are well-rested and ready to go. They rested their starters in a blowout loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday, so they've essentially had two days off in between games to get ready for the Bulls.
Chicago will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA. Making matters worse for the Bulls is that they needed overtime to beat the 76ers last night, and 53 points from Jimmy Butler. Butler and company will have nothing left in the tank tonight. The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.
Plays against home underdogs (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, extremely tired team - playing their 4th game in 5 days are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Chicago is 8-24 ATS in its last 32 games following a road win. Dallas is 8-0 ATS after trailing by 15 points or more at the half in its previous game over the last three seasons. Take the Mavericks Friday.
|
01-15-16 |
Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 210 |
Top |
101-108 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 210
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks. This game won't come close to reaching 210 combined points Friday.
These teams are used to playing in low-scoring, defensive battle when they get together. Indeed, the UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with combined scores of 189, 183, 175 and 184 combined points. That's an average of 182.8 combined points per game, which is roughly 27 points less than tonight's posted total of 210.
The UNDER is 20-7 in Hawks last 27 Friday games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|
01-14-16 |
Raptors v. Magic +4 |
|
106-103 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 59 m |
Show
|
15* Raptors/Magic Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Orlando +4
The Orlando Magic are in desperate need of a victory. They have lost five of their last six games overall to fall to 20-18 on the season. This is still one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, and I look for them to lay it all on the line to get a victory today against the Toronto Raptors.
I believe getting away for a few days and visiting London will do the Magic a lot of good here to help them get out of this brief funk. Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors come in overvalued due to having won three straight games. They won't be as focused as the Magic for this game, and they will enjoy themselves in London because they are playing better coming in.
But the Raptors' three-game winning streak has come against the Nets, Wizards and 76ers, so it's nothing to brag about. Also, the Raptors are still missing a key starter in DeMarre Carroll, who is out indefinitely with a knee injury. The Magic are 1-0 against the Raptors this season with a 92-87 home victory as 6-point dogs in their first and only meeting.
Orlando is an incredible 10-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games coming in. Plays on any team (ORLANDO) - off a home loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better. Bet the Magic Thursday.
|
01-13-16 |
Pacers v. Celtics -2 |
Top |
94-103 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 38 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2
The Boston Celtics are desperate for a win tonight. They have lost four straight and six of thier last seven games overall with all six losses coming by single-digits. So, they aren't playing poorly, they are simply coming up short in close games.
Both teams will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight. But I believe that favors the Celtics, who are one of the deepest teams in the NBA and are built for these situations. Plus, this will only be the 3rd game in 6 days for the Celtics, while this will be the 4th game in 6 days for the Pacers.
The home team has won five of the last seven meetings between these teams. The Pacers are just 9-11 on the road this season, clearly playing their best basketball at home, where they are 13-5. This will be the Celtics' first home game following a 3-game road trip, so they'll be glad to be back in front of their home fans in Boston.
Boston is 9-1 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent as a home favorite over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games off two straight losses by 6 points or less. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on 0 days rest. The Celtics are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 games playing on 0 days rest. Bet the Celtics Wednesday.
|
01-12-16 |
Spurs v. Pistons +7 |
|
109-99 |
Loss |
-102 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +7
The San Antonio Spurs will be playing the second of a back-to-back after their win in Brooklyn last night. They are at a disadvantage here in the rest department against the Pistons, who will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. The Pistons have had two days off in between games since last beating the Nets on Saturday.
The Pistons come into this game playing their best basketball of the season. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Orlando by 26 at home, Brooklyn by 14 at home, and Boston by 5 on the road. Yet they are getting no respect from oddsmakers here as 7-point home underdogs.
The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now. They have gone 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall to make the betting public a ton of money. The public is going to continue to back them, and oddsmakers know this, which forces them to shade the line in the Spurs' favor. That creates artificial line value for us to pounce on the Pistons here.
Detroit is 12-9 SU & 13-8 ATS in its last 21 home meetings with San Antonio. It has won two of its last three home meetings with San Antonio outright as underdogs. The Pistons are 13-4 ATS in all home games this season, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game at home. Detroit is 7-0 ATS in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls per game this season. The Pistons are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 home games dating back to last year. Take the Pistons Tuesday.
|
01-12-16 |
Celtics -103 v. Knicks |
Top |
114-120 |
Loss |
-103 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
25* NBA Atlantic Division GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics Money Line -103
The Boston Celtics will be more motivated for a victory tonight than they have been at any other point in the season. They have last three straight and five of their last six coming in, including a blown 20-point lead in a 98-101 loss at Memphis on Sunday. They are clearly going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.
The New York Knicks are playing very well, winners of four of their last five coming in. But this team is starting to become overvalued, and this recent run has them content with how they are playing at the moment. They aren't going to want this win as much as the Celtics, and as a result won't be able to match their intensity level.
The Celtics have owned the Knicks, going 4-0 SU in the last four meetings with wins by 9, 4, 21 and 11 points. The road team has actually won four of the last six meetings, too, so home-court advantage has meant very little when these Atlantic Division rivals have gotten together.
Boston is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after having lost 5 or 6 of its last 7 games coming in. The Celtics are 13-1 ATS int heir last 14 road games after allowing 100 points or more in two consecutive games coming in. Boston is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 road games after playing two consecutive road games coming in. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.
|
01-11-16 |
Heat +13.5 v. Warriors |
|
103-111 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 47 m |
Show
|
15* Heat/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +13.5
The Golden State Warriors come into this game overvalued for a number of reasons. They own the best record in the league at 35-2, and the betting public has made a killing off of them as they've gone 23-13 ATS. They are coming off a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS road trip against Western Conference bottom feeders in the Lakers, Blazers and Kings as well.
The Miami Heat are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at 22-15 on the season. They have won four of their last six coming in while going 4-2 ATS in the process. They are certainly capable of staying within this massive 13.5-point spread, which I believe to be too much tonight.
The Heat are coming off a poor performance in an 83-98 loss at Utah on Saturday, and that result has them undervalued as well. I would be shocked if it wasn't due to them looking ahead to this game against the Warriors. Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and company are all relishing the opportunity to go at the defending champs tonight and will bring max effort as a result.
Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS since 1996. Roll with the Heat Monday.
|
01-11-16 |
Wizards v. Bulls UNDER 207.5 |
|
114-100 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Bulls UNDER 207.5
A lot is being made of the Bulls scoring at least 100 points in 10 consecutive games. As a result, their totals are going to be inflated in the near future, including tonight against the Wizards. I believe the value is now with the UNDER 207.5 tonight.
The Wizards haven't exactly been offensive juggernauts here of late with all of the injuries they are dealing with, including the one to star SG Bradley Beal, who remains out. The Wizards have scored 91 or fewer points in four of their last seven games. But they have been playing good defense, limiting eight of their last 10 opponents to 99 or fewer points.
The recent history between these teams justifies this play on the UNDER 207.5. They have combined for 204 or fewer points in 25 consecutive meetings! That's a perfect 25-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set. They have averaged 183.7 combined points per game in their last six meetings, which is 24 points less than this total. Enough said. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|
01-10-16 |
Cavs v. 76ers OVER 203.5 |
|
95-85 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 22 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/76ers OVER 203.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers have become the offensive juggernaut that most thought they'd be when having Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and Lebron James healthy at the same time. They have simply been rolling since Irving returned from injury a few games back.
Indeed, the Cavaliers have scored 104, 122, 121 and 125 points in their last four games, respectively. That's an average of 118.0 points per game. I expect them to flirt with that average again today against the lowly Philadelphia 76ers.
The 76ers have been trying to play at a faster tempo this season, especially since hiring Mike D'Antoni. They rank 5th in pace at 99.8 possessions per game this season. The results have been better on offense, but their defense has been atrocious as they've allowed 104-plus points in 11 of their last 14 games overall. They have given up 108, 126 and 130 points in three of their last four.
The OVER is 11-3 in Cavaliers last 14 games when playing on one days' rest. The OVER is 12-4 in 76ers 16 home games this season. The OVER is 8-0 in 76ers last eight games following a loss by more than 10 points. The OVER is 9-1-1 in 76ers last 11 games following a loss overall. The OVER is 20-7 in 76ers last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|
01-10-16 |
Celtics -2 v. Grizzlies |
Top |
98-101 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 21 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2
The Boston Celtics are primed for a big performance today. They have lost two straight and four of their last five coming in, so they're motivated for a victory. Plus, they have had two days off in between games having last played on Thursday, so they are well-rested and ready to go.
The Celtics are now at full strength as PG Avery Bradley is expected to return from a hip injury. The same cannot be said for the Memphis Grizzlies, who are expected to be without their starting backcourt in PG Mike Conley and SG Courtney Lee.
Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 94-54 (63.5%) ATS since 1996.
Boston is 12-2 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of its last 6 games over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall. The Grizzlies are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Bet the Celtics Sunday.
|
01-09-16 |
Wizards v. Magic -2 |
|
105-99 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 40 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2
I successfully backed the Orlando Magic in an 83-77 win at Brooklyn last night as 4-point favorites, and I'm backing them again tonight for many of the same reasons. This team is motivated following a 4-game losing streak, and they are undervalued due to that streak as well.
Adding to the Magic's motivation tonight is the fact that they are 0-3 against Washington in three meetings this season. They lost by 12 and 9 on the road, and by just 1 at home. They will be hungry to avoid the season sweep, and I like their chances of getting a victory here with the way the Wizards are playing right now.
Indeed, Washington is 1-5 in its last six games overall. That includes a 19-point home loss to the Clippers and a 22-point home loss to the Heat. The Wizards are still playing without star SG Bradley Beal, which is the biggest reason for their struggles. Their injury list remains long, and they aren't playing up to their potential as a result. They lost 97-88 at home to the Raptors last night, so they are playing the second of a back-to-back as well, which hurts them more because they are short-handed, while the Magic are a deep team.
The Wizards are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on 0 days' rest, while the Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days' rest. The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Orlando is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win. The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Roll with the Magic Saturday.
|
01-08-16 |
Knicks +14 v. Spurs |
|
99-100 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 54 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14
The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now. They have gone a league-best 26-11 ATS in all games this season, and their 21-0 SU & 16-5 ATS home mark has the betting public all over them. The Spurs have covered 12 of their last 14 games ATS as well.
The New York Knicks continue getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight despite playing their best basketball of the season coming in. They've gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They are 2-2 straight up in their last four meetings with the Spurs, not once losing by more than 14 points.
Their recent run includes a 12-point home win over Detroit as 1.5-point dogs, a 14-point home win over Atlanta as 4.5-point dogs, a 6-point road win over Atlanta as 7.5-point dogs, and an 8-point road win at Miami as 7.5-point dogs. This team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and feeling like it can compete with San Antonio.
New York is 17-8 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent this season. The Knicks are 8-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - good defensive team - allowing 91 or fewer points/game on the season, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game are 36-14 (72%) ATS since 1996. The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the Knicks Friday.
|
01-08-16 |
Cavs v. Wolves OVER 196 |
|
125-99 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 24 m |
Show
|
15* Cavs/T'Wolves ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 196
With Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, the Cleveland Cavaliers have become the explosive offensive team that we all thought they'd be. They have scored 104, 122 and 121 points in their last three games overall for an average of 115.7 points per game.
Look for the Cavs to put up another big number against the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight to mostly take care of this OVER by themselves. The T'Wolves have allowed 101 or more points in 13 of their last 18 games overall.
The last three meetings between the Cavs and T'Wolves have all seen at least 196 combined points. They have combined for 196, 229 and 219 points in their last three meetings, respectively. That's an average of 214.7 points per game, which is roughly 19 points more than this 196-point total.
Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG), after scoring 80 points or less are 36-11 (76.6%) since 1996. Take the OVER in this game Friday.
|
01-08-16 |
Magic -4.5 v. Nets |
Top |
83-77 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 54 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -4.5
The Orlando Magic are extremely motivated for a win tonight. They have lost four straight coming in with three of those coming on the road. Look for them to give max effort to try and end this skid, and for it to be enough to beat the lowly Brooklyn Nets.
The Nets are in a world of hurt right now. They have gone just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall, and the injuries are starting to pile up. They just lost starting PG Jarrett Jack to a season-ending ACL injury. They have proceeded to get blown out 94-103 by Boston and 74-91 to Toronto, both at home, in their two games without him.
The Magic have owned the Nets in two meetings this season. They won 105-82 on the road and 100-93 at home. The Magic have been a solid road team this season as they've gone 10-6-1 ATS in their 17 road games.
Orlando is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of its last 7 games against the spread over the last two seasons. The Magic are 31-17 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last two years. The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Bet the Magic Friday.
|
01-07-16 |
Celtics +6.5 v. Bulls |
Top |
92-101 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
20* Celtics/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Boston +6.5
The Boston Celtics are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four games coming in. They were outscored in the fourth quarter by 14 points by the Pistons last night to lost 94-99, and now they'll certainly come back playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.
The Chicago Bulls come into this game overvalued because they have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, four of which have come at home. It's now time to fade them as they are simply laying too many points to the Celtics tonight.
Boston has been better on the road than it has been at home. It is 10-6 SU & 11-5 ATS in road games this season, outscoring teams 103.1 to 99.1 on average. In fact, the Celtics are 7-2 SU in their last nine road games with their only losses coming to the Piston (by 3) and Spurs (by 3). So they haven't lost by more than 3 points in any of their last nine road games.
The Celtics are 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last two seasons. Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better. The Celtics are 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games playing on 0 days rest. Boston is 39-19 ATS in its last 58 road games. The Bulls are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win. Bet the Celtics Thursday.
|
01-06-16 |
Nuggets v. Wolves OVER 202 |
|
78-74 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves OVER 202
This is a battle between two bad teams in the Denver Nuggets (12-23) and Minnesota Timberwolves (12-23) with identical awful records. Look for defense to be optional tonight as this game sails way OVER this 202-point total set.
That's usually the case when these teams get together, anyways. The first two meetings this season have seen 212 and 219 combined points, respectively. Dating back further, 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams have seen 205 or more combined points. The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Minnesota.
The Nuggets have been playing in a ton of high-scoring games here of late. The OVER is 3-0 in their last three games with combined scores of 213, 219 and 218 points. Now they are expected to get rookie PG Emmanuel Mudiay back in the lineup tonight and will be even more potent on the offensive end.
Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MINNESOTA) - cold team - having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games are 39-17 (69.6%) over the last five seasons. The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The OVER is 4-1 in Timberwolves last five vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|
01-05-16 |
Knicks v. Hawks UNDER 203 |
Top |
107-101 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 59 m |
Show
|
20* NBA Eastern Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks/Hawks UNDER 203
The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks are very familiar with one another to say the least. In fact, this will be the 2nd time in 3 days that they square off, and their 4th and final meeting of the season. This familiarity will lead to a low-scoring game tonight as both teams know each other's tendencies by now.
The Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace as they rank 23rd in pace at 96.5 possessions per game. The Knicks also rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency at 100.9 points per 100 possessions. The Hawks are 10th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.2 points per 100 possessions.
Atlanta is 12-3 to the UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons. Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 50-22 (69.4%) over the last five seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|
01-04-16 |
Hornets v. Warriors UNDER 208 |
Top |
101-111 |
Loss |
-111 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Warriors UNDER 208
The books have set the bar too high with this total set tonight between the Charlotte Hornets and Golden State Warriors. The injuries for both of these teams are really piling up now, which will help contribute to the UNDER.
Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lin, and Spencer Hawes are all questionable for the Hornets, while Al Jefferson remains out. Harrison Barnes and Brandon Rush are both banged up but expected to play for the Warriors. Stephen Curry is questionable, while Festus Ezeli, Leandro Barbosa and James Michael McAdoo are all expected to miss tonight.
These are two solid defensive teams as the Warriors rank 4th in defensive efficiency, while the Hornets rank 11th. Three of the last four meetings in this series have seen 207 or fewer combined points. We're seeing an average of 196.8 combined points per game in those four meetings, which is 11 points less than this posted total of 208.
Charlotte is 19-8 UNDER vs. teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last two seasons. The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Hornets last 21 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 17-6 in Hornets last 23 Monday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
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