Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-05-22 | Heat +110 v. Grizzlies | 93-101 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami Heat ML +110 The Miami Heat are finally getting healthy and it's starting to show in their play. They have won four of their last five games overall and are coming off an upset win at Boston in Jimmy Butler's return from injury. Now they have had the last two days off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight. The same cannot be said for the Grizzlies, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 122-112 win in Detroit Sunday. All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Grizzlies yesterday. I like the spot when I released this pick this morning, but I love it even more now given the injury report that has come out for the Grizzlies since. Memphis will be without Desmond Bane, Danny Green, Ziaire Williams, Jake LaRavia and Jaren Jackson Jr. tonight. Both JA Morant and John Konchar are questionable. The Heat will have no problem blowing out the Grizzlies given who they will be putting out on the court tonight. Miami is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games following three consecutive road games. Take the Heat on the Money Line Monday. |
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12-05-22 | Celtics v. Raptors | 116-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors PK The Toronto Raptors are as healthy as they've been all season with their six best players in Siakam, Anunoby, VanVleet, Trent Jr, Barnes and Boucher all healthy right now. Five of the six have missed at least three games this season, so that is important. I think they are ready to take down the Boston Celtics tonight. Boston is in a terrible spot, while it's a favorable one for the Raptors, who had yesterday off. The Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. They just won 103-92 in Brooklyn last night after losing in OT to the Heat the game prior. They won't have much left in the tank tonight. Al Horford is out while Malcolm Brogdon is questionable tonight. The Raptors are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning record. Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. The Raptors are 16-6 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK. Roll with the Raptors Monday. |
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12-05-22 | Thunder +6 v. Hawks | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +6 The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA over the past two seasons. They didn't get the wins to show for it last season, but they continually covered inflated numbers. Now they are starting to get some wins to show for their efforts. Indeed, the Thunder are 10-13 SU but 14-9 ATS this season and only getting outscored by 1.0 points per game. Let's just compare that to the Hawks, who are 13-10 SU but 10-12-1 ATS and only outscoring opponents by 0.7 points per game this season. Given those numbers, the Thunder should not be catching 6 points here. Now you have to factor in that the Thunder are fully healthy right now while the Hawks are not. They are without John Collins, and both Trae Young and DeAndre Hunter are questionable tonight. I assume Young is playing or this line wouldn't be this high, but the fact that he's hampered by a shoulder injury is not good for the Hawks. The Thunder are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games. Oklahoma City is 40-17-3 ATS in its last 60 games following an ATS win. The Thunder are 24-11 ATS in the last 35 meetings, and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 trips to Atlanta. Atlanta is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following an upset win as an underdog. Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games vs. poor 3-point shooting teams that make 33% or less. Take the Thunder Monday. |
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12-04-22 | Grizzlies v. Pistons OVER 228.5 | 122-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Pistons OVER 228.5 The Detroit Pistons have gone way OVER the total in consecutive games. They combined for 250 points with New York and then 256 points with Dallas in a OT game that was still at 234 at the end of regulation. It think we easily get up and OVER 228.5 in this matchup with the Grizzlies. Memphis has scored 115 or more points in five of its last nine games overall. Memphis has allowed at least 109 points in seven consecutive games. Memphis and Detroit combined for 239 points in their most recent meetings. The OVER is 14-4 in Pistons last 18 non-conference home games. The OVER is 9-3-1 in Pistons last 13 home games. The Pistons rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 115.8 points per 100 possessions. Memphis is only 19th in defensive efficiency. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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12-04-22 | Bulls v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 101-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5 This line is short due to the Sacramento Kings playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 123-96 win over the Clippers yesterday. But they had two days off prior to that game, and no starter played more than 30 minutes for the Kings due to the blowout win. They will still be very fresh and ready to go for the Bulls tonight. Chicago is one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA. They have gone just 9-13 SU and are 1-3 SU in their last four games with road losses to the Thunder, Suns and Warriors. They weren't really even competitive with Phoenix or Golden State, and they won't be competitive with Sacramento, either. Plays against road underdogs (Chicago) - following two or more consecutive road losses against an opponent that is off a road win by 10 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The home team is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings. The Kings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a win. Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing on zero rest. Bet the Kings Sunday. |
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12-04-22 | Nuggets v. Pelicans -1 | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -1 The New Orleans Pelicans are rolling right now and should be more than 1-point home favorites over the Denver Nuggets today. The Pelicans are 8-2 SU & 8-2 AS in their last 10 games overall. Their two losses came to Boston and Memphis. The Denver Nuggets are also 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, but they have been feasting on a weak schedule beating the Thunder in OT, the short-handed Clippers and the Rockets twice. They lost by 8 at Atlanta. Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season are 50-22 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Pelicans Sunday. |
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12-03-22 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 232 | Top | 101-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Warriors OVER 232 The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 4th in the NBA in pace and 9th in offensive efficiency. They have scored at least 119 points in seven of their last 10 games overall. But they are slacking on defense coming off a championship season, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency. Houston is a dead nuts OVER team. The Rockets rank 12th in pace so they like to push the tempo. They rank 28th in defensive efficiency as they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. But they do have some talent on offense and like to play small ball, which favors the OVER. The Rockets have scored at least 113 points in five of their last six games, while allowing 120 or more points in five of their last six. These teams just met on November 20th two weeks ago with the Warriors winning 127-120 for 247 combined points. And we only need 232 here, so there's value with the OVER. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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12-03-22 | Kings v. Clippers OVER 227.5 | 123-96 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
15* Kings/Clippers NBA Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on OVER 227.5 The Sacramento Kings are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace, 4th in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency. Any total below 230 is low for a game involving the Sacramento Kings. The Los Angeles Clippers may be getting back both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George from injury today to boost their offense. They will have no problem getting into a shootout with the Kings either way. 10 of Sacramento's last 13 games have seen 229 or more combined points. Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going over the total in their previous game, a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against a bad defensive team (114-118 PPG) are 73-34 (68.2%) since 1996. Take the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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12-02-22 | Bulls v. Warriors OVER 234.5 | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
20* Bulls/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 234.5 The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 1st in the NBA in pace and 9th in offensive efficiency. They have scored at least 124 points in four of their last six games and the OVER is 4-0 in their last four games overall. But they are slacking on defense coming off a championship season, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency. The Chicago Bulls are lighting up the scoreboard of late as well scoring at least 113 points in five consecutive games. But they have allowed 107 or more points in nine consecutive games. They rank in the top half of the league in pace so they will enjoy getting up and down the court with the Warriors tonight to try and keep pace. The OVER is 28-11 in Bulls last 39 road games after trailing their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime. They gave up 132 points to the Suns last time out in a game that saw 245 combined points. We'll see a similar shootout tonight against the Warriors. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
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12-02-22 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 229.5 | Top | 122-121 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Suns OVER 229.5 The Phoenix Suns are just rolling offensively right now. They have scored at least 112 points in eight of their last nine games and are coming off 132 and 122-point efforts in their last two games against the Bulls and Kings, respectively. They have allowed at least 112 points in eight of their last 11 games as well. Houston is a dead nuts OVER team. The Rockets rank 9th in pace so they like to push the tempo. They rank 28th in defensive efficiency as they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. But they do have some talent on offense and like to play small ball, which favors the OVER. Phoenix ranks 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between Houston and Phoenix with combined scores of 233 or more points in six of those seven meetings. The OVER is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Phoenix. The OVER is 9-1 in Rockets last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 6-1 in Suns last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the OVER in this game Friday. |
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12-02-22 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | 120-116 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +8.5 I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight. They are coming off a 121-134 loss in Boston on Wednesday. Now they get their chance at revenge here just two days later again in Boston Friday. At the very least I like their chances of staying within this 8.5-point spread and possibly pulling off the upset. It's time to 'sell high' on the Celtics. They have won 14 of their last 15 games overall and have won and covered five straight. If they were going to have a letdown, this would be the spot after just beating the Heat by 13 two nights ago. Injuries are working in Miami's favor here, too. Jimmy Butler makes his return from a knee injury tonight, and Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are all probable for the Heat tonight. This is as healthy as they have been in a long time, and they are one of the better teams in the East when fully healthy. Miami is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 trips to Boston. The Heat are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games when playing with double-revenge against an opponent. Roll with the Heat Friday. |
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12-01-22 | Mavs v. Pistons +8 | Top | 125-131 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
20* Mavs/Pistons NBA TV No-Brainer on Detroit +8 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Pistons tonight. They are coming off their worst loss of the season a 110-140 home loss to the New York Knicks. But they were competitive in their previous eight games, going 6-1-1 ATS in those eight games with an 8-point loss to Cleveland, a 6-point loss at Phoenix, an upset win at Utah, an upset win at Denver, an 8-point loss at Sacramento, a 7-point loss at the Lakers, a 5-point loss at the Clippers and a 4-point loss to the Raptors. So that blowout loss to the Knicks was the aberration, not the norm. They hadn't lost any of their previous 10 games by double-digits. They won't be losing by double-digits to the Mavericks tonight, either. Look for an inspired effort from the Pistons off that loss, and it's worth noting they are as healthy as they have been in a long time now. This looks like a letdown spot for the Mavericks off their upset 3-point home win over the Warriors last time out. Keep in mind the Mavericks had gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their previous four games. In fact, the Mavericks are now just 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have just one win by double-digits in their last 18 games overall. They aren't blowing anyone out right now. Dallas is 0-9 ATS following a win this season. Detroit is 7-0 ATS in non-conference games this season. Roll with the Pistons Thursday. |
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11-30-22 | Pacers v. Kings OVER 238.5 | 114-137 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pacers/Kings OVER 238.5 Both the Sacramento Kings and Indiana Pacers are dead nuts OVER teams. Sacramento ranks 7th in pace while Indiana ranks 3rd. Sacramento ranks 4th in offensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 16th. Sacramento ranks 27th in defensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 19th. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Kings last seven home games. The Kings and their opponents have combined for at least 237 points in each of their last six home games. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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11-30-22 | Rockets +12 v. Nuggets | Top | 100-120 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets +12 I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight. They will be motivated for revenge from a 113-129 loss at Denver on Monday. Now they get their shot at revenge in Denver again here two days later, and oddsmakers hasn't adjusted for the revenge factor considering Denver was an 11.5-point favorite in the first meeting and is now a 12-point favorite in the rematch. The Rockets were playing well coming into that game. They had gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their previous three games. They only lost by 7 to Golden State as 11-point dogs, upset Atlanta by 6 as 8-point dogs and upset Oklahoma City by 13 as 2-point dogs. They only trailed Denver by 2 at halftime, too. I'll gladly fade the Nuggets tonight. They won't be motivated at all to beat this team again. They'll be lucky to get out of here with a win, let alone cover this 12-point spread due to their lack of motivation. I also can't see them shooting 56.8% from the field again like they did in that first meeting and they still struggled to cover. Denver is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more. Plays against any team (Denver) - following two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 46-20 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons. It's time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets tonight given the terrible spot for them. Bet the Rockets Wednesday. |
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11-30-22 | Wizards v. Nets OVER 224.5 | 107-113 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Nets OVER 224.5 Ben Simmons is a good defender and gives Brooklyn almost nothing on offense. He is out tonight, meaning Kyrie Irving will likely take over the ball-handling duties. Irving is a dead nuts OVER player as he is one of the best scorers in the NBA and one of the worst defenders. The Washington Wizards are really starting to get in a groove offensively now with both Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis healthy. They followed up 121 points at Boston with 142 points at home against Minnesota. They also gave up 130 points to the Celtics and 127 to the Timberwolves and have now allowed at least 110 points in four consecutive games. The OVER is 4-0 in Wizards last four games overall. The OVER is 23-10-1 in Wizards last 34 games following a win. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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11-29-22 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 227.5 | Top | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
20* Warriors/Mavs TNT No-Brainer on OVER 227.5 The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 1st in the NBA in pace and 9th in offensive efficiency. They have scored at least 124 points in four of their last five games. But they are slacking on defense coming off a championship season, ranking 21st in defensive efficiency. Dallas just allowed 125 points to Boston and 124 points to Milwaukee in two of their last three games. They are going to have to try and keep pace with the Warriors tonight because Golden State is going to get its points. Expected a shootout between these teams tonight. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Warriors last seven games following a win by more than 10 points. The OVER is 9-1 in Mavericks last 10 games following a loss. The OVER is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings, including 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Dallas. Plays on the OVER on road teams where the total is 220 or higher (Golden State) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 28-8 (77.8%) since 1996. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
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11-28-22 | Suns v. Kings +1 | Top | 122-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
20* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +1 The Sacramento Kings are 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home during this stretch. But they are coming off two consecutive road losses at Atlanta and at Boston, so they return home here highly motivated for a victory. The Kings are also fully healthy and come in on two days' rest, so they will be fresh and ready to go. The Phoenix Suns have been fortunate to go 4-0 in their last four games overall. All four games were at home against some of the worst teams in the NBA in the Knicks, Lakers, Pistons and Jazz. They won their last two games over the Jazz and Pistons by a combined 7 points. The Suns have been getting away with being without Chris Paul and Cam Johnson due to the soft schedule. Their luck runs out tonight as they finally hit the road to face a legit team in the Kings. It will also be the 3rd game in 4 days for the Suns tonight. Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Sacramento) - after winning five or six of their last seven games, winning between 45-55% of their games on the season are 50-16 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Suns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win. Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Kings Monday. |
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11-28-22 | Rockets +12 v. Nuggets | 113-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +12 The Houston Rockets are quietly playing their best basketball of the season. They are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They only lost by 7 to the Warriors as 11-point dogs, upset the Hawks by 6 as 8-point dogs and upset the Thunder by 13 as 2-point dogs. The Rockets should not be catching 12 points to the Denver Nuggets, who just have a way of playing to their level of competition. The Nuggets are back home now after playing four of their last five games on the road. I think this will be a sleepy spot for them, especially coming off two consecutive road wins over the Thunder (in OT) and the short-handed Clippers. Denver is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games after playing two consecutive road games. The Nuggets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a road win by 10 points or more. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win. The Nuggets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games. Denver is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Plays against any team (Denver) - following two consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 46-19 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Rockets Monday. |
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11-28-22 | Thunder +6 v. Pelicans | 101-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +6 The New Orleans Pelicans cannot be 6-point favorites over the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight when they are missing two of their best players. Both CJ McCollum (18.7 PPG, 6.1 APG) and Brandon Ingram (20.8 PPG) are expected to miss this game. Larry Nance Jr. (9.4 PPG) is questionable as well. The Thunder have been grossly undervalued the past two seasons. They have been the most profitable team to back because of it. They sit at 8-12 this season but are clearly improved, and they are as healthy as they have been all season. I like their chances of keeping this one close and likely pulling off the upset with the Pelicans missing Ingram and McCollum. The Thunder are 57-35 ATS in their last 92 games as underdogs. Oklahoma City is 33-15 ATS in its last 48 road games. The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in New Orleans. Take the Thunder Monday. |
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11-28-22 | Cavs v. Raptors -2 | Top | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -2 The Toronto Raptors will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight. They are the much fresher team than the Cleveland Cavaliers, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days. It will also be their 3rd road game in 4 days. The Cavaliers needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat the lowly Detroit Pistons last night. Garland played over 40 minutes, Mobley over 39 minutes and Mitchell over 38 minutes. Kevin Love, Lamar Stevens and Jarrett Allen are all out tonight, so they are short-handed, which makes this spot even worse for the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six road games. The Raptors are 37-15 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record. Toronto is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days. The Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home meetings with the Cavaliers. Take the Raptors Monday. |
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11-27-22 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 224.5 | 121-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Celtics UNDER 224.5 The Boston Celtics have been the most efficient offensive team in the NBA this season. But that was with Jayson Tatum (30.5 PPG), who will miss his first game of the season Sunday with an ankle injury. The Celtics are going to be lost on offense without out, thus this total is way too high. This total is also too high when you consider the opponent in Washington. The Wizards are a dead nuts UNDER team. They rank 22nd in pace this season while Boston ranks 18th in pace. The Wizards rank 24th in offensive efficiency and 6th in defensive efficiency. Each of Washington's last four games have seen 218 or fewer combined points. These teams met on October 30th earlier this season with Boston winning 112-94 for 204 combined points. The UNDER is now 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and we've seen 223 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in 10 of those 11 meetings. That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 224.5-point total. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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11-27-22 | 76ers v. Magic UNDER 215 | Top | 133-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Magic UNDER 215 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. The 76ers just beat the Magic 107-99 for 206 combined points in Orlando on Friday. Now these teams meet again two days later Sunday in a rematch in Orlando. Philadelphia is without its top three scorers in Embiid, Maxey and Harden who combined to average more than 77 points per game. It's safe to say they are going to continue to struggle offensively without them and have to rely on defense to try and win games. Orlando has injury concerns of its own with Anthony out, and Suggs, Carter Jr. and Okeke questionable. The Magic are going extremely big right now as they just started Bamba, Blanchero and Bol against the 76ers last game. They have been held to 108 or fewer points in five of their last seven games. The UNDER is 6-2 in Magic last eight games overall. Philadelphia is 19-6 UNDER in its last 25 games as a road underdog, including 15-3 UNDER in its last 18 games as a road dog of 6 points or less. Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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11-27-22 | Pacers v. Clippers OVER 222 | 100-114 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
15* Pacers/Clippers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 222 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 4th in the NBA In pace this season, 9th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency. This 222-point total is very low for a game involving the Pacers. We've seen 15 of 18 Indiana games with at least 221 combined points this season. This total is low because the Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George right now. While those are two of their best scorers, they are also two of their best defenders. The Clippers are one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can still get scoring with John Wall and Norman Powell coming off the bench. But they really lose a lot defensively, and that has been evident of late as the Clippers have allowed 114 or more points in four consecutive games. They have scored 112.8 points per game in their last four games and will get enough points in this one against this soft Indiana defense to send this one OVER the total. Indiana is 14-4 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make at least 48% of their shots this season. The OVER is 22-10-1 in Pacers last 33 games playing on one days' rest. The OVER is 6-1 in Pacers last seven Sunday games. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-27-22 | Blazers v. Nets OVER 220.5 | 97-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
15* Blazers/Nets Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Blazers/Nets OVER 220.5 The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts OVER team with Kyrie Irving in the lineup. He's one of the best scorers in the NBA, but also one of the worst defenders as well. This 220.5-point total is way low for a game involving the Nets with Irving in the lineup. The OVER is 7-5 in the 12 games with Irving this season with combined scores of 221 or more points in eight of those 12 games. This total has been set lower than it should be because the Blazers are without Damian Lillard. But they have been just fine without him, going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS because Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are stars. They have scored at least 108 points in all six games without Lillard while averaging 118.2 points per game in those six games. Grant and Simons just combined for 82 points in a win over the Knicks last time out. Take the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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11-27-22 | Blazers +7 v. Nets | Top | 97-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +7 The Portland Trail Blazers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season whether they have had Damian Lillard or not. They are 11-8 SU & 13-6 ATS this season, including 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS without Lillard. The Blazers have been able to be competitive without Lillard because Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are stars. They have upset road wins over Phoenix as 12-point dogs, Memphis as 5-point dogs, Milwaukee as 9-point dogs and New York as 4-point dogs without Lillard. Simons and Grant combined for 82 points in a 132-129 (OT) win at New York last time out. Now they stay in New York and head to Brooklyn to face the Nets tonight. The Nets have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season, especially when Kyrie Irving has been healthy and in the lineup. The Nets are 3-9 ATS with Irving in the lineup this season as he is a terrible defender and their chemistry has been awful with him. Portland is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Brooklyn is 13-38-1 ATS in its last 52 home games. The Nets are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after playing a game where they were called for 10-plus more fouls than their opponent. The Nets are 8-33 ATS in their last 41 games as home favorites. Bet the Blazers Sunday. |
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11-26-22 | Thunder v. Rockets OVER 232.5 | Top | 105-118 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Thunder/Rockets OVER 232.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games overall while embracing the up-tempo style that is working for them. The Thunder and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in nine consecutive games and 241 or more in eight of those. Oklahoma City ranks 4th in the NBA in pace this season. Houston ranks 10th in pace and will enjoy getting up and down with the Thunder in this one. The Rockets rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Thunder rank 22nd, so this sets up for shootout with little defense being played. We saw that last night for Houston when the Rockets won 128-122 over the Hawks. That came after a 120-127 shootout loss to Golden State last time out. The Thunder won 123-119 (OT) over the Bulls last night as well. So both teams will be on tired legs, and that will affect their defense more than anything. Oklahoma City is 10-1 OVER when the total is 230 or higher over the last two seasons. The OVER is 13-2 in Thunder last 15 games overall. The OVER is 6-0 in Rockets last six home games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 17-5 in Rockets last 22 games playing on zero rest. The OVER is 4-1 in Thunder last five games playing on zero rest. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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11-25-22 | Jazz v. Warriors OVER 237.5 | Top | 118-129 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Jazz/Warriors OVER 237.5 Both the Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors are dead nuts OVER teams. The Warriors rank 1st in pace this season while the Jazz rank 10th. The Warriors rank 12th in offensive efficiency while the Jazz rank 6th. The Warriors rank 25th in defensive efficiency while the Jazz rank 23rd. The Jazz have scored at least 114 points in four consecutive games, while allowing at least 113 points in eight of their last nine games overall. The Warriors have allowed 120 or more points in four of their last seven, while scoring at least 119 points in four of their last six. The OVER is 4-0 in Jazz last four games overall. The OVER is 5-0 in Jazz last five games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday. |
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11-25-22 | Nets v. Pacers OVER 235.5 | 117-128 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Nets/Pacers OVER 235.5 Kyrie Irving is back for the Nets and they are a dead nuts OVER team with him in the lineup. He is one of the best scorers in the NBA and one of the worst defenders. The Nets are about as healthy as they have been all season. The Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team too and will control the tempo playing at home. They like to get up and down ranking 4th in the NBA in pace this season. Indiana is 10th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency as Rick Carlisle loves playing this style and coaching little defense. The OVER is 22-9 in Pacers last 31 home games. The OVER is 25-6-1 in the last 32 meetings in Indiana. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
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11-25-22 | Kings +8 v. Celtics | 104-122 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +8 The Sacramento Kings are grossly undervalued right now. They are 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They will relish this opportunity to go into Boston and take on the defending Eastern Conference champs to try and pull off the upset. They may not get it done, but getting 8 points with the Kings is too much given their current form. Boston is also playing well having won 10 of their last 11 games overall. Five of those wins were by single-digits plus an upset 14-point loss at Chicago two games back. They have mostly feasted on a easy schedule during this stretch and are overvalued as a result. Boston is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 home games following a win by 10 points or more. Sacramento is 10-2 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season. The Kings are 8-1 ATS vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season. Sacramento is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 road games. The Kings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games playing on one days' rest. Take the Kings Friday. |
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11-25-22 | Bulls v. Thunder OVER 234.5 | Top | 119-123 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Thunder OVER 234.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall while embracing the up-tempo style that is working for them. The Thunder and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in eight consecutive games and 241 or more in seven of those. The Chicago Bulls are rolling offensively right now beating Boston 121-107 two games back and Milwaukee 118-113 last game. They will be more than willing to get in a shootout with the Thunder tonight, who will force their hand as they rank 4th in pace this season. The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 in the last four meetings in Oklahoma City. The OVER is 12-2 in Thunder last 14 games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
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11-25-22 | Lakers v. Spurs OVER 227.5 | Top | 105-94 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lakers/Spurs OVER 227.5 Both the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs are dead nuts OVER teams. The Lakers rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season while the Spurs rank 6th in pace. The Spurs rank dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency this season as well. The Lakers recently got Dennis Schroeder back to help them out offensively. They are likely to get back LeBron tonight too, and their best defensive in Patrick Beverly has been suspended for three games. All of those things will help us cash this OVER ticket. Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 200 or higher (San Antonio) - after beating beaten by the spread by more than 6 points in four consecutive games in November games are 27-6 (81.8%) since 1996. Take the OVER in this game Friday. |
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11-23-22 | Clippers v. Warriors OVER 222.5 | Top | 107-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
20* Clippers/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 222.5 The Golden State Warriors are a dead nuts OVER team. They are playing no defense this season but their offense hasn't missed a beat. They rank 1st in the NBA in pace at 105.2 possessions per game and 25th in defensive efficiency. They are scoring 115.7 points per game and allowing 118.0 points per game this season. This total has been adjusted too low because the Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. But those are also two of their best defenders and they tend to play slower with them in there. This is a deep Clippers team so they will still get their points, and I am certain they are a worse defensive team without those two. That just means more minutes for poor defenders in John Wall, Reggie Jackson and Norman Powell who can all score the ball but play little defense. They will have to go to more of a small ball lineup tonight to match the Warriors anyway, which also favors the OVER. Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA Clippers) - after going OVER the total in their previous game, a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG) are 69-32 (68.3%) since 1996. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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11-23-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs OVER 229.5 | 129-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Pelicans/Spurs OVER 229.5 Both the New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs are great OVER teams. The Spurs rank 8th in the league in pace while the Pelicans rank 18th. The Pelicans rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Spurs rank 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. I think the fact that both teams have gone under the total in consecutive games coming in has this total set lower than it should be. The Pelicans just played the Warriors without all of their best players in a 128-83 victory. The Spurs continued their terrible defense allowing 119 to the Clippers and 123 to the Lakers, but they only managed 97 and 92 points in those two games, respectively. They won't get held down again tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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11-23-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder OVER 229.5 | Top | 131-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Thunder OVER 229.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder are a dead nuts OVER team right now. They are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall while embracing the up-tempo style that is working for them. The Thunder and their opponents have combined for at least 231 points in seven consecutive games, and if they get there again we'll cash this OVER 229.5. Denver has been a dead nuts OVER team when they have had Jokic and Murray on the floor at the same time. Well, they're back now after having to sit out due to health protocols. The Nuggets rank 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and would be even better if they were healthy all season. Denver and Oklahoma City have already played in two shootouts this season. Denver won 122-117 for 239 combined points at home and 122-110 for 232 combined points on the road. The OVER is 11-1 in Thunder last 12 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The OVER is 7-3 in Nuggets last 10 road games. The OVER is 25-7 in Thunder last 32 games following a home loss. The OVER is 8-0 in Thunder's last eight games vs. teams that shoot 24 or fewer free throws per game. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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11-23-22 | Kings +5.5 v. Hawks | 106-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +5.5 The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA. I've been riding them a lot during their 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS run over their last 12 games and I'm going to continue to ride them tonight. They will be highly motivated to extend their winning streak to eight games. This is a young, deep Kings team so I'm not concerned with them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here. They should still be pretty fresh considering this will be just their 3rd game in 6 days. They are expected to have all hands on deck tonight and are fully healthy. I just think they're a better team than the Atlanta Hawks right now. The Hawks are just 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. They lost at Cleveland by 12 last time out, barely beat a short-handed Toronto team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back by 2 in OT, and lost by 25 to Boston at home in their last three games coming in. The Kings are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games. Sacramento is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games playing on zero rest. Atlanta is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Sacramento is 8-0 ATS vs. teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season. The Kings are 10-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists per game this season. Roll with the Kings Wednesday. |
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11-22-22 | Lakers +7.5 v. Suns | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
15* Lakers/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7.5 The Los Angeles Lakers have quietly gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games overall to start playing up to their potential. That includes blowout wins over the Nets by 13 and the Spurs by 31. Now the Lakers are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 9 days and will give the Suns a run for their money tonight. The Suns are struggling of late due to injuries as they are just 4-5 SU in their last nine games overall. They are without both Chris Paul (9.5 PPG, 9.4 APG) and Cameron Johnson (13.0 PPG). That's why I'm not concerned the Lakers will be without LeBron because it has been factored into the line too much, especially with this move to 10 since I released this play. LeBron has been out the past four games and the Lakers played well in all four. They are forming some chemistry without him, and it will pay dividends down the road. I would make the Lakers a 20* play at +10, so adjust your bet size accordingly. Phoenix is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games when playing against a team that wins between 25% to 40% of their games. Monte Williams is 6-22 ATS in home games off a blowout win by 20 points or more as a head coach. The Suns won't be fully focused playing the Lakers without LeBron, either. Take the Lakers Tuesday. |
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11-22-22 | Kings -2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -2 The Sacramento Kings are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA. I've been riding them a lot during their 9-2 SU & 9-2 ATS run over their last 11 games and I'm going to continue to ride them tonight. They want to extend their winning streak to seven games, and they are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. The Memphis Grizzlies have injury problems right now that have them just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games with their lone win coming against the Oklahoma City Thunder at home. They lost by 10 at Washington, by 11 at New Orleans and by 12 at Brooklyn. While the Kings are fully healthy right now, which is a big reason they are playing so well, the Grizzlies are far from it. They're without the most underrated player in the NBA in Desmond Bane (24.7 PPG). JA Morant (28.6 PPG) is questionable tonight, and Jaren Jackson Jr. (16.0 PPG) is making his way back from injury and on a minutes restriction. The Kings are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games when playing on one days' rest. Sacramento is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 road games. Bet the Kings Tuesday. |
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11-21-22 | Heat v. Wolves -8 | 101-105 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves -8 After a slow start to the season due to chemistry issues with Rudy Gobert, the Minnesota Timberwolves are starting to put it together. They are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall and would be 3-0 ATS against the opening line. They won at Cleveland by 5, at Orlando by 18 and at Philadelphia by 3 as closing 3.5-point favorites. Now the Timberwolves are back home and rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 8 days. The same cannot be said for the Miami Heat, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 4th road game in 6 days. They are starting to wear down losing three consecutive games including an 87-113 blowout loss in Cleveland last night. It's going to be another blowout loss for the Heat tonight. Making matters worse is they have been hit hard by injuries, so they are short-handed, which makes fatigue even more of a factor. The Heat will be without both Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro tonight, plus both Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent are questionable. The Timberwolves will run them out of the gym and put tempo to use as they rank 2nd in the NBA in pace this season. The Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall. The Timberwolves are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings in Miami. Roll with the Timberwolves Monday. |
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11-21-22 | Magic v. Pacers UNDER 227 | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Pacers UNDER 227 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Well, this will be the 2nd meeting in 3 days between the Magic and Pacers. They combined for 227 points with a 226-point total on Saturday, and now the books have opened the total a notch higher at 227 for the rematch. They haven't adjusted for the familiarity factor, and we'll take advantage and bet the UNDER. The Pacers have been much better defensively with a healthy Myles Turner. The Magic are playing big ball right now due to injuries and it's working and keeping them competitive. Mo Bamba and Bol Bol both played over 30 minutes against the Pacers on Saturday and combined for 43 points and 20 rebounds. There isn't much playmaking at the guard position right now without Cole Anthony. The UNDER is 5-2 in Magic last seven games overall with combined scores of 227 or fewer points in six of those seven games, including 217 or less in five of them. The Pacers have seen 227 or fewer combined points in three of their last four meetings. Take the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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11-21-22 | Magic +7 v. Pacers | Top | 102-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +7 I love the spot for the Orlando Magic tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 113-114 loss at Indiana on Saturday. Now they get their shot at revenge here just two days later in Indiana again. They go from 6.5-point dogs in the first meeting to 7-point dogs in the second meeting, so the books aren't even adjusting for the revenge factor. Simply put, you're paying a tax to back the Pacers right now after they have gone 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. But this is the perfect spot for a letdown for this young team, and I expect the Magic to win outright. Getting 7 points is just an added bonus. The Magic have quietly been very competitive going 5-5 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They upset the Bulls on the road as 8.5-point dogs, upset the Suns by 17 as 7-point dogs, upset the Mavericks by 7 as 8.5-point dogs and upset the Warriors as 9.5-point dogs during this stretch. So they have proven they can play with anyone. Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - off a home win scoring 110 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 46-18 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Indiana. Bet the Magic Monday. |
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11-20-22 | Nuggets v. Mavs UNDER 217.5 | Top | 98-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Mavericks UNDER 217.5 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Well, Denver and Dallas just played on Friday, and now they will play again two days later here Sunday. Dallas won that first meeting 127-99 thanks to shooting a ridiculous 59.7% from the field, going 46-of-77. That's not going to happen again. The Denver Nuggets are going to be without their two best players in Nikola Jokic (20.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 8.9 APG) and Jamal Murray (16.5 PPG). Jokic is a walking triple-double and is the reason their offense has been so efficient. Without him they are going to be pretty lost on that end of the court. We've seen that play out in their last two games as they scored 103 on 43.9% shooting against the Knicks and 99 on 42.2% shooting against the Mavericks. Dallas ranks dead last in pace at 97.3 possessions per game and will control the tempo at home. The improvement the Mavericks have made defensively under Jason Kidd has been remarkable. Dallas ranks 5th in defensive efficiency this season. This total was set at 216 for the first meeting and after going over the total it has been set at 217.5 in the rematch. That's a mistake from the oddsmakers as they are not factoring in the familiarity factor, plus how well the Mavericks shot in that first meeting. Denver and Dallas have combined for 215 or fewer points in seven of their last 11 meetings overall. The UNDER is 41-19-1 in Mavericks last 61 home games. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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11-19-22 | Wolves +2.5 v. 76ers | 112-109 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5 This is a terrible spot for the Philadelphia 76ers. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-102 upset home win over the Milwaukee Bucks last night. Joel Embiid played 36 minutes last night and six players played at least 30 minutes. They also lost Tyrese Maxey (22.9 PPG) to an ankle injury in that game and he is doubtful to play tonight. Tobias Harris (14.7 PPG) sat out last night and is questionable as well. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves come in on two days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. They are finally playing up to their potential too following up a 129-124 upset win in Cleveland with a dominant 126-108 win at Orlando. I expect them to win and cover their third consecutive game tonight given the terrible spot for the 76ers and the injuries. It's definitely a letdown spot for Philadelphia after a win over the Bucks, too. The Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS in their last eight Saturday games. Take the Timberwolves Saturday. |
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11-19-22 | Raptors v. Hawks -5 | Top | 122-124 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -5 I love the spot for the Atlanta Hawks tonight. They come in on two days' rest and will be pissed off following a 25-point loss to the Celtics. That followed up a 15-point win at Milwaukee in their previous game to flash their potential. The also want revenge from a 30-point loss at Toronto in their first meeting this season. But while the Hawks are fully healthy right now, the Raptors are missing four of their top seven scorers. They will be without Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG), Gary Trent Jr. (16.6 PPG), Chris Boucher (12.3 PPG) and Precious Achiuwa (8.8 PPG). They also could be without Otto Porter Jr., who is questionable. The just don't have the horses to be competitive in this game without these guys. Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Atlanta) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, a well-rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 61-31 (66.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five home meetings with Toronto. Bet the Hawks Saturday. |
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11-18-22 | Pacers v. Rockets OVER 236 | 99-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Pacers/Rockets OVER 236 The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Rick Carlisle. They have combined for 251 points with the Pelicans, 241 points with the Nuggets and 238 points with the Hornets in going OVER the total in three of their last four games overall. The lone exception was the 118-104 win over a Toronto team that was missing several starters and was handicapped on offense because of it. Houston is also a dead nuts OVER team and will gladly get into a shootout with the Pacers. Houston ranks 28th in defensive efficiency while Indiana ranks 27th. Indiana ranks 2nd in the NBA in pace this season while Houston ranks 9th in pace. So we have two of the fastest-tempo teams going up against two teams that don't play defense. Indiana beat Houston 121-118 in their final meeting last season for 239 combined points. The OVER is 14-6 in Pacers last 20 games overall. The OVER is 21-7-1 in Pacers last 29 games playing on one days' rest. The OVER is 7-2 in Rockets last nine home games. Take the OVER in this game Friday. |
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11-18-22 | Thunder v. Grizzlies OVER 231 | Top | 110-121 | Push | 0 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Grizzlies OVER 231 The books are failing to adjust to how the Oklahoma City Thunder are playing right now. They have gone OVER the total in five consecutive games. They combined for 268 points with Milwaukee, 245 points with Toronto, 280 points with New York, 248 points with Boston and 241 points with Washington in their last five games. They have been playing this way for a while now and it's working as they are 7-5 SU in their last 12 games overall, so they aren't going to abandon it. The OVER is now 9-2 in their last 11 games overall with combined scores of 228 or more points in eight of those 11 games. This total of 231 is just too low with the way they are playing right now. The Memphis Grizzlies will oblige in an up-tempo affair. JA Morant will enjoy going toe-to-toe with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been one of the best players in the NBA this season. The Grizzlies aren't playing much defense this season as they rank 22nd in defensive efficiency. These teams combined for 243 points in their most recent meeting. They have combined for 231 or more points in four of their last six meetings with the OVER going 5-1 in those six. The OVER is 7-1 in Grizzlies last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 7-1 in Thunder last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. OKC is 7-0 OVER vs. teams that attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season. Bet the OVER in this game Friday. |
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11-16-22 | Thunder v. Wizards OVER 225.5 | Top | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Wizards OVER 225.5 The books are failing to adjust to how the Oklahoma City Thunder are playing right now. They have gone OVER the total in four consecutive games. They combined for 268 points with Milwaukee, 245 points with Toronto, 280 points with New York and 248 points with Boston in their last four games. They have been playing this way for a while now and it's working as they are 6-5 SU in their last 11 games overall, so they aren't going to abandon in. The OVER is now 8-2 in their last 10 games overall with combined scores of 228 or more points in seven of those 10 games. This total of 225.5 is just too low with the way they are playing right now. The Washington Wizards will oblige and play the up-tempo game with them. The Wizards get a big boost tonight with the return of their best player in Bradley Beal (21.6 PPG). He has been out since November 4th, and he'll give their offense a big boost tonight now that he's back healthy. The Wizards and Thunder have combined for at least 226 points in three of their last four meetings, including 240 points in their most recent meeting. The OVER is 20-6 in Thunder last 26 games following an ATS win. The OVER is 16-7 in Wizards last 23 home games. The OVER is 21-9-1 in Wizards last 31 games following a win. The OVER is 64-31-1 in Wizards last 96 games playing on two days' rest, including 10-1 OVER In their last 11 home games when playing on two days' rest. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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11-15-22 | Nets v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 121-153 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
20* Nets/Kings TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5 The Sacramento Kings have rebounded from an 0-4 start to go 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall to get to .500 on the season. They would love that feeling of a winning record, and I think they get it tonight with a win and cover at home against the Brooklyn Nets. The Kings are getting zero respect for this run they are one, which continues to make them an undervalued commodity and I keep cashing in. I backed them in each of their last three games in a 127-120 upset win as 4-point dogs over the Cavaliers, a 120-114 win at the Lakers as 4.5-point favorites and a 122-115 upset win as 4-point dogs to Golden State. The Nets are getting respect for their 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS run without Kyrie Irving. No question their chemistry has been better without him, but they've also taken advantage of a very easy schedule. Now is the time to fade them after a 103-116 loss to the Lakers without LeBron James. Their run just came an end, and this team simply doesn't have the talent or depth to be very good on a nightly basis. It's one of my favorite teams to fade in the NBA. It will also be their 3rd game in 4 days after spending two days in Los Angeles, which is a distraction. The Nets are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. The Kings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games playing on one days' rest. Plays on home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (Sacramento) 0 after winning five or six of its last seven games, winning between 45-55% of their games are 49-15 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays against road underdogs (Brooklyn) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 40-49% of their games are 31-7 (81.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Take the Kings Tuesday. |
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11-15-22 | Clippers +7.5 v. Mavs | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +7.5 This line has been adjusted way too much in Dallas' favor for the Los Angeles Clippers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, while the Mavericks come in on two days' rest. The spot isn't worth this many points as these are two pretty evenly-matched teams without the spot. I'll gladly take the 7.5 points with the Clippers tonight. The Mavericks shouldn't be favored this heavily over anyone right now. They are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with five wins during this stretch all coming by 9 points or fewer, with four wins by 5 points or fewer. They also lost outright to the Wizards as 6-point favorites, to the Magic as 8.5-point favorites and to the Thunder as 10.5-point favorites. This team just can't be trusted right now. The spot isn't even bad for the Clippers. They will only be playing their 3rd game in 6 days here. They made easy work in a 122-106 win at Houston last night, so it's a short travel to Dallas. Nobody even played 30 minutes last night for the Clippers, so they should still be very fresh. They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA with Mann, Powell, Batum and Covington all coming off the bench, so they can handle these back-to-backs better than most teams. The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Dallas. Roll with the Clippers Tuesday. |
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11-15-22 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -3 | Top | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
20* Grizzlies/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans -3 The New Orleans Pelicans have been a dangerous team with the Big 4 of Ingram (21.4 PPG), Williamson (23.5 PPG), McCollum (17.8 PPG, 6.3 APG) and Valanciunas (13.8 PG, 10.1 RPG) have been healthy this season. All four are expected to play tonight, and I like the Pelicans laying this short number at home against the Memphis Grizzlies. While Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. are both expected to play tonight, both are hampered by injuries. Jackson Jr. will be on a minutes restriction in his season debut. The big loss for the Grizzlies is Desmond Bane, who is arguably the most underrated player in the entire NBA. He averages 24.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. He'll be out until December. The Grizzlies lost outright at Washington by 10 in their first and only game without Bane this season. The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Memphis. Bet the Pelicans Tuesday. |
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11-14-22 | Spurs +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 95-132 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
20* Spurs/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +7.5 The Golden State Warriors are going through the motions early in the season after winning the title last year. The Warriors are slacking on defense, ranking 25th in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 119.2 points per game and 46.9% shooting to their opponents. That's the biggest reason they are 5-8 SU & 4-9 ATS and have been grossly overvalued. Now the Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 115-122 road loss to the Kings last night. Curry, Green, Thompson and Wiggins all played at least 32 minutes last night. The Warriors are getting no help from their bench, another reason they are struggling this season. They won't have much left in the tank for the Spurs tonight. Meanwhile, San Antonio comes in rested and ready to go on two days' rest after last playing on Friday in a 111-93 home victory over the Bucks. The Spurs have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season as they are 6-7 SU & 8-5 ATS. They show up every night, and they'll certainly show up against the defending champs tonight with a lot more energy than the Warriors with this rest advantage. San Antonio is 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with the Warriors with the two losses coming by 6 and 4 points. The road team has won five consecutive meetings outright. San Antonio is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win. The Spurs are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall. San Antonio is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games. The Spurs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on two days' rest. Golden State is 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record this season. Bet the Spurs Monday. |
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11-14-22 | Thunder v. Celtics OVER 228 | Top | 122-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
20* Thunder/Celtics NBA TV No-Brainer on OVER 228 The Oklahoma City Thunder have changed to an up-tempo game that fits their young roster in the last week and the oddsmakers are failing to adjust. They lost to the Bucks and all their backups 136-132 (OT) for 268 combined points, beat the Raptors 132-113 for 245 combined points and beat the Knicks 145-135 for 280 combined points in their last three games coming in. This 228-point total has been set too low with the way the Thunder are playing right now. Now they face a Boston Celtics team that is far and away 1st in offensive efficiency this season, scoring 117.8 points per 100 possessions. But the Celtics have taken a big step back in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.1 points per 100 possessions. They really miss the Robert Williams, who has been out with an injury all season. The OVER is 5-1-1 in Celtics last seven games overall with at least 225 combined points in six of those seven games. The OVER is 6-0 in Thunder last six games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. The OVER is 7-2 in Thunder last nine games overall. The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings. The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Boston. Take the OVER in this game Monday. |
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11-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons +5.5 | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +5.5 The Toronto Raptors are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming 116-109 at home over the lowly Houston Rockets as 10-point favorites. They lost by 14 at Chicago, by 19 at Oklahoma City and by 18 at Indiana. A big reason for the Raptors' struggles is that they are now without three of their top four scorers in Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 7.7 APG), Fred VanVleet (18.4 PPG, 6.8 APG) and Gary Trent Jr. (16.6 PPG) tonight. They cannot be 5.5-point road favorites over the Pistons tonight missing these three guys. The Raptors are a tired team to boot playing their 6th game in 9 days, so it hurts them even more being without these guys. The Pistons are rested and ready to go playing only their 5th game in 10 days here. They were competitive in their loss to the Celtics losing by 9 even without Cade Cunningham. Jaden Ivey is quickly blossoming into a star scoring 26 points in the loss. Detroit is 34-19 ATS in its last 53 games following a home loss. The Pistons are 33-19 ATS in their last 52 games following three or more consecutive losses. Amazingly, Detroit is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Toronto with six outright wins as underdogs. They clearly have this team figured out, and it will be even easier for them with the Raptors missing three of their top four scorers. Take the Pistons Monday. |
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11-13-22 | Warriors v. Kings +4.5 | Top | 115-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
20* NBA Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +4.5 The Sacramento Kings have quietly gone 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Their two losses came by 3 points at Miami and by 3 points at Golden State. They have upset the Cavaliers and Heat during this stretch as well. Now the Kings have double-revenge here after losing to the Warriors by 5 and 3 points in two road games this season. Now the Kings get the Warriors at home this time around, and I expect them to win outright, let alone staying within 4.5 points here. The Warriors are going through the motions early in the season after winning the title last year. They certainly won't be motivated to beat the Kings for a third time already this season. The Warriors are slacking on defense, ranking 24th in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 119.0 points per game and 46.5% shooting to their opponents. That's the biggest reason they are 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS and have been grossly overvalued. Plays against road favorites (Golden State) - off two or more consecutive home wins, in Sunday games are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last six games playing on one days' rest. Sacramento is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Bet the Kings Sunday. |
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11-13-22 | Nuggets v. Bulls +2 | 126-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2 I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight. They have lost three of their last four against a brutal schedule of Boston, Toronto (twice) and New Orleans. They'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight as a result, and I like their chances considering they are well-rested after having the LAST THREE DAYS OFF! The Nuggets don't have the same luxury. They will be playing their 4th consecutive road games and their 4th road game in 7 days. They started to show some fatigue in their 112-131 loss at Boston on Friday after barely squeaking by against the Pacers by 3 and Spurs by 6 in their two prior road games. Denver will be without Bones Hyland, who averages 14.0 PPG in just 20.7 minutes per game this season and is a key cog off their bench. The Bulls won both meetings with the Nuggets last season. The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last five games when playing on three or more days' rest. The Bulls are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 Sunday games. Roll with the Bulls Sunday. |
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11-13-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. 76ers | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Utah Jazz +3.5 The Utah Jazz have been grossly undervalued to start the season. They are 10-4 SU & 10-4 ATS this season and got back way better pieces in the Mitchell and Gobert trades than they got credit for. Markkanen (22.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG), Sexton (13.9 PG), Olynyk (12.1 PPG), Beasley (11.8 PPG), Vanderbilt (8.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and Horton-Tucker (7.9 PPG) are meshing well with holdovers Clarkson (18.6 PPG, 4.9 APG) and Conley (11.4 PPG, 8.2 APG). The Philadelphia 76ers have been grossly overvalued this season. They are 6-7 SU & 6-7 ATS and now they are without one of their best players in James Harden until December. I backed the 76ers last night in a great spot as they were out for revenge on the Hawks and got that revenge. But now I expect them to be flat tonight, while the Jazz will be motivated after an upset loss to the Wizards last night. Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, but the spot is better for the Jazz. They are a deeper team and will handle this spot better because of it. They also had two days off prior to playing the Wizards last night. Meanwhile, the 76ers have zero depth without Harden now and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Embiid played 40 minutes, Harris 38 and Maxey 36 last night. The Jazz only had one player play more than 30 minutes last night. Utah is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. Philadelphia is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 games following an ATS win. Utah is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season. The Jazz are 7-0 ATS when playing six or more games in 10 days this season. Take the Jazz Sunday. |
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11-12-22 | Rockets v. Pelicans OVER 232 | Top | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Pelicans OVER 232 Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when the Houston Rockets visit the New Orleans Pelicans Saturday night. The Rockets rank 7th in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing 114.3 points per 100 possessions. The Pelicans are loaded on offense ranking 8th in offensive efficiency at 111.4 points per 100 possessions. But they have been disappointing thus far this season because of their lack of defense. The Pelicans rank 19th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.1 points per 100 possessions. Houston has gone OVER the total in three consecutive games with combined scores of 246, 261 and 225 points. The OVER is 5-1 in Rockets last six road games. The OVER is 6-1 in Rockets last seven Saturday games. The OVER is 6-2 in Pelicans last eight home games. The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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11-12-22 | Hawks v. 76ers -3 | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -3 I love the spot for the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 95-104 road loss at Atlanta on Thursday in which they shot just 38.6% from the floor. This is now a 'buy low' spot on them as they are favored by only 3 points at home in the rematch here two days later. It's also time to 'sell high' on the Hawks, who are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. They are a terrible road team and did most of their damage at home with four of their last five games in Atlanta. The Hawks are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make at least 36% of their attempts. Atlanta is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 road games when playing its 3rd game in 4 days. The Hawks are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games. Bet the 76ers Saturday. |
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11-12-22 | Celtics v. Pistons +9.5 | 117-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5 I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 112-128 loss in Boston on Wednesday where they shot 41.6% while the Celtics shot 53.4%. Now they get their shot at revenge just three days later here Saturday and are catching 9.5 points at home, which gives us a ton of wiggle room. It's a bad spot for both teams, but a better one for the Pistons because of the revenge plus they will be the fresher team. Both teams will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. But the Pistons are the deeper team and will be playing just their 4th game in 8 days, while the Celtics will be playing their 6th game in 9 days. It's also a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics after winning five consecutive games coming in. It would not shock me one bit to see them rest some starters after Jayson Tatum played over 37 minutes, Jaylen Brown over 34 minutes, Al Horford over 34 minutes and Grant Williams over 32 minutes last night in the big win over Denver. Boston is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive covers as a favorite. The Celtics are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games vs. teams that are outrebounded by 3-plus boards per game. The Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 39% or better. Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six games playing on zero rest. Detroit is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 5-0 ATS in the last five home meetings. Take the Pistons Saturday. |
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11-12-22 | Raptors v. Pacers -1 | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -1 The Indiana Pacers have quietly gone 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. I love the spot for them now coming in on two days' rest and playing just their 3rd game in 8 days. They will be fresh and ready to go tonight. The same cannot be said for the Toronto Raptors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. They started to show their fatigue last night losing 113-132 on the road to the lowly Oklahoma City Thunder. They are still without their best player in Pascal Siakam (24.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 7.7 APG), and they aren't a very deep team as it is. The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on zero rest. The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Indiana is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Indiana should be favored by more today given how much the spot favors them. Roll with the Pacers Saturday. |
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11-11-22 | Kings -3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 120-114 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -3.5 The Sacramento Kings are fully healthy now and playing up to their potential. They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 3 points at Golden State and by 3 points at Miami. They also upset Miami and Cleveland during this stretch. Look for the Kings to roll the Los Angeles Lakers, who are one of the worst teams in the NBA even with a healthy LeBron James. They Lakers are 2-9 SU & 2-9 ATS this season. Now they will be without James tonight. They have no chance of even keeping this competitive as seven of their nine losses have come by 9 points or more. The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Sacramento is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on one days' rest. The Lakers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a loss by more than 10 points. Roll with the Kings Friday. |
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11-11-22 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 228 | 101-106 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Warriors OVER 228 Two elite offensive teams and two poor defensive teams square off tonight when the Golden State Warriors host the Cleveland Cavaliers. This one has all the makings of a shootout tonight folks. Golden State ranks 1st in the NBA in pace this season and will control the tempo playing at home. The Warriors are having no problems on offense this season ranking 12th in offensive efficiency. The Cavaliers have been great in that area which is a big reason for their improvement this season. They are 3rd in offensive efficiency and scoring 116.6 points per game. The reason the Warriors are struggling so much is because they have taken a big step back defensively this season. They rank 25th in defensive efficiency. We've seen at least 229 combined points in nine of Golden State's 11 games this season. They are scoring 117.3 points per game and allowing 120.6 points per game. The OVER is 18-7-1 in Cavaliers last 26 road games. The OVER is 4-1 in Warriors last five home games. The OVER is 7-3-1 in Warriors last 11 games overall. Take the OVER in this game Friday. |
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11-11-22 | Bucks v. Spurs -115 | 93-111 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Antonio Spurs PK The Milwaukee Bucks are grossly overvalued right now due to their 10-1 start. It's time to 'sell high' on them, especially after they were just without all their best players and beat the Thunder 136-132 in double-OT. They won't be able to beat the Spurs without all their best players tonight. This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Spurs, who have lost five consecutive games but were competitive in three of the losses by 7 points or fewer. The blowout losses were due to injuries. But the Spurs are fully healthy now with the exception of Zach Collins. The Spurs won't take the Bucks lightly tonight due to this five-game losing streak. That's key because Milwaukee cannot beat them unless San Antonio has a letdown. The Bucks are without their three best players in Giannis (31.8 PPG, 12.2 RPG), Holiday (19.6 PPG, 7.9 APG) and Middleton. Plays on any team (San Antonio) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent against a team after a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Spurs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games playing on one days' rest. San Antonio is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the Spurs Friday. |
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11-10-22 | 76ers +1 v. Hawks | 95-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +1 Teams tend to rally when they lose a star player. That has been the case with the Brooklyn Nets as they are playing their best basketball of the season without Kyrie Irving. And it looks to be the case with the Philadelphia 76ers as well after finding out they'll be without James Harden until December. The 76ers promptly upset the Phoenix Suns 100-88 last time out at home. They are rested and ready to go tonight as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days tonight. They had two days off prior to the Phoenix game on Monday, and now have had two days off heading into this showdown with Atlanta. That's a huge advantage for the 76ers when you consider the Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 119-125 home loss to the Utah Jazz last night. That game will have taken a lot out of them as it was an absolute shootout played at a high pace. They won't have much left in the tank for the 76ers tonight. Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series. The road team is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Hawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on zero rest. Take the 76ers Thursday. |
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11-09-22 | Cavs v. Kings +5.5 | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings +5.5 I love betting against teams that just had an extending winning streak snapped. There always seems to be a hangover effect and they just aren't as motivated as they were to try and keep the winning streak alive. That will be the case for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The Cavaliers are in a massive hangover spot here after having their 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS streak come to an end after blowing a late 8-point lead to the Clippers in a 117-119 loss on Monday. That was a double-header in Los Angeles after beating the Lakers the night before. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Kings now tonight after their winning streak was snapped. Now they will be playing their 4th consecutive road game and their 3rd road game in 4 days against a Sacramento Kings team on the improve. The Kings are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their two losses coming by 3 points at Miami and by 3 points at Golden State. I think they're showing tremendous value catching 5.5 points at home against the Cavaliers tonight. Cleveland is 17-33 ATS in its last 50 games following a road loss. The Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Cavaliers are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 games following an ATS loss. Plays on any team (Sacramento) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent against a team that is off a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Kings Wednesday. |
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11-09-22 | Suns v. Wolves UNDER 226 | 129-117 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 49 m | Show | |
15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Suns/Timberwolves UNDER 226 The Phoenix Suns are a dead nuts UNDER team right now. They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 103.3 points per 100 possessions. Phoenix ranks 28th in pace, averaging just 94.3 possessions per game. They are even more of an UNDER team now without Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) who is their best shooter. The Minnesota Timberwolves are also a dead nuts UNDER team. The addition of Rudy Gobert has indeed made them a better defensive team, which is what they wanted, but it has hurt them offensively. The Timberwolves rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency but 5th in defensive efficiency. These teams just met on November 1st with the Suns winning 116-107 for 223 combined points. Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games, and that will be the case here in the rematch just over a week later. The UNDER is 6-0 in Suns last six road games. The UNDER is 35-15-1 in Suns last 51 games following a loss. The UNDER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last six games overall. Phoenix is 13-1 UNDER in its last 14 games following a road loss. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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11-09-22 | Bucks v. Thunder UNDER 219.5 | Top | 136-132 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bucks/Thunder UNDER 219.5 The Milwaukee Bucks have been relying on defense in the early going with injuries to Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles as all three have yet to play. Now they are without PG Jrue Holiday, which will make them even more of an UNDER team until he returns. But the Bucks have gotten to 9-1 this season thanks to ranking 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.2 points allowed per 100 possessions. They rank just 16th in pace at 97.4 possessions per game. They are 20th in offensive efficiency. To no surprise, the UNDER is 7-3 in their 10 games this season. Oklahoma City ranks just 26th in offensive efficiency but 5th in defensive efficiency, which has allowed them to at least be competitive. So they are a dead nuts UNDER team as well. And these teams just met on November 5th with Milwaukee winning 108-94 for 202 combined points. It should be more of the same here just four days later, especially considering familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. The UNDER is 17-5 in Bucks last 22 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Thunder last four games following a loss. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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11-09-22 | Rockets v. Raptors OVER 223.5 | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Raptors OVER 223.5 The Houston Rockets are a dead nuts OVER team. They rank 7th in pace at 99.1 possessions per game. They rank 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.7 points per 100 possessions. So this total of 223.5 is pretty low for a game involving the Rockets. The Raptors have some good chemistry on offense as they rank 10th in offensive efficiency. They are scoring 111.9 points per game this season, while the Rockets are scoring 110.4 points per game. Houston allows 117.9 points per game and Toronto should get to 120 here to lead the way to cashing this OVER. The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings. The Rockets and Raptors have combined for at least 228 points in four of the last five meetings with combined scores of 232, 259, 216, 233 and 228 points in the last five meetings, respectively. Both meetings last season sailed OVER the total. The OVER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings. The OVER is 6-1 in Raptors last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. The Rockets are coming off 246 combined points with Minnesota followed by 261 combined points with Orlando in their last two games. Plays on the OVER on road teams with a total of 210 or higher (Houston) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG), after a combined score of 255 points or more are 31-9 (77.5%) since 1996. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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11-09-22 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 223.5 | 85-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
15* Knicks/Nets ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 223.5 The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts UNDER team without Kyrie Irving. He's one of the best scorers in the NBA and also arguably the single-worst defender. The proof is in the pudding for the Nets when he has been out due to suspension the past three games. Indeed, the Nets combined for 214 points with the Wizards, 192 points with the Hornets and 190 points with the Mavericks in their last three games without him. In fact, the UNDER is 5-0 in Nets last five games overall. It should be more of the same here against the New York Knicks. Tom Thibodeau has the Knicks playing defense again this season. New York ranks 15th in defensive efficiency but still struggles to score on offense. This has been a very low-scoring series with the Knicks and Nets combining for 222 or fewer points in four consecutive meetings. The UNDER is 5-0 in Knicks last five games vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 10-1 in Nets last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. |
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11-09-22 | Nuggets v. Pacers OVER 235.5 | Top | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Pacers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 235.5 The Indiana Pacers play at the 6th-fastest pace in the NBA this season. They will control the tempo playing at home. They are dream OVER team because they play no defense, ranking 28th in defensive efficiency allowing 114.3 points per 100 possessions. The Nuggets will oblige in a shootout. They rank 2nd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 113.8 points per 100 possessions. They rank just 20th in defensive efficiency, allowing 111.1 points per 100 possessions. The Pacers are 13th in offensive efficiency scoring 110.2 points per 100 possessions and have been even more efficient since Myles Turner returned from injury. The Pacers have allowed at least 114 points in nine of their 10 games this season. They have scored at least 124 points in five of their 10 games. The Nuggets have scored at least 110 points in nine consecutive games. These teams combined for 243 points in their final meeting last season, and that was with Denver not having Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. healthy. The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Indiana. The OVER is 7-1 in Nuggets last eight games following an ATS loss. The OVER is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 home games. Indiana is 20-6 OVER in its last 26 home games with a total of 230 or higher. Take the OVER in this game Wednesday. |
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11-07-22 | Nuggets v. Spurs +9 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +9 I love the spot for the San Antonio Spurs tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 101-126 loss in Denver on Saturday in which the Nuggets shot 60.9% including 15-of-29 (51.7%) from 3-point range. Their shooting of late is unsustainable. It's also a 'buy low' spot on the Spurs after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They have been battling through injuries during this stretch but are much healthier for this game, which is going to make a big difference for them. Plays on any team (San Antonio) - that is allowing a 50% shooting percentage or higher on the season, averaging 48 or fewer rebounds per game are 27-6 (81.8%) ATS since 1996. San Antonio is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on one days' rest. Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following two consecutive wins by 10 or more points. It's time to 'sell high' on the Nuggets tonight. Roll with the Spurs Monday. |
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11-07-22 | Raptors v. Bulls UNDER 222 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Bulls UNDER 222 Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games. Well, the Bulls and Raptors just played yesterday in Toronto with the Raptors winning 113-104 for just 217 combined points. Now they will play a day later, this time in Chicago. This 222-point total had been set too high given the situation that favors the UNDER. The Raptors rank 28th in the NBA in pace this season. The Bulls rank 23rd in pace. This total has been set too high based on how these teams like to play in the half court and not get out and run. It is especially too high given the situation. The Bulls are 5th in defensive efficiency while the Raptors are 8th as well. The has been an UNDER series as well. The Raptors and Bulls have combined for 219 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings. The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Chicago. The UNDER is 7-0 in Bulls last seven Monday games. Take the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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11-07-22 | Blazers v. Heat UNDER 217 | 110-107 | Push | 0 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
15* Monday NBA Total DOMINATOR on Blazers/Heat UNDER 217 Injuries are going to help us cash this UNDER between the Blazers and Heat. The Blazers are expected to be without their two leading scorers tonight in Damian Lillard (31.0 PPG) and Anfernee Simons (22.0 PPG). We saw how well that went last time out when they were held to 82 points by the Suns. The Heat could be without Tyler Herro (19.6 PPG), who is questionable. Jimmy Butler (21.5 PPG) will return tonight but is still hobbled. The Heat managed just 99 points last time out against the Indiana Pacers, which is really poor considering Indiana plays at a fast pace and is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Portland ranks 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while Miami ranks 13th. Both teams rank in the middle of the pack in pace with the Blazers 17th and the Heat 15th. The Blazers will be looking to slow it down even more without Lillard and Simons. These teams are also familiar with one another having played on October 26th with 217 combined points in the game Lillard got hurt. Portland is 25-10 UNDER in its last 35 games when revenging a same-season loss. The UNDER is 8-0 in Blazers last eight road games. The UNDER is 17-5 in Blazers last 22 games overall. The UNDER is 5-2 in Heat last seven games overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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11-07-22 | Suns v. 76ers UNDER 217 | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
15* Suns/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 217 Injuries are going to help us cash this UNDER tonight. Phoenix will be without Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and could be without Cameron Payne (8.9 PPG) again. Philadelphia will be without James Harden (22.0 PPG, 10.0 APG) until December. These teams both play a style that favors the UNDER as well. The Suns rank 18th in pace while the 76ers rank 21st. The Suns are 3rd in defensive efficiency as well. The 76ers are a much better team defensively without Harden. They will also be a much slower team to try and run their offense through Embiid now without Harden. The UNDER is 5-0 in Suns last five road games. The UNDER is 7-0 in 76ers last seven games following a loss. The UNDER is 39-19 in 76ers last 58 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 5-1 in 76ers last six home games. Take the UNDER in this game Monday. |
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11-07-22 | Pelicans -5 v. Pacers | 122-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -5 The New Orleans Pelicans have just one loss this season when Williamson, Ingram, McCollum and Valanciunas have been healthy at the same time. That came in overtime on the road at Atlanta on the 2nd of a back-to-back. They have been absolutely dominant otherwise. Now I expect the Pelicans to make easy work of the Indiana Pacers, who play zero defense and won't have any answers for the offensive firepower of the Pelicans, who also play defense. The Pacers rank 28th in defensive efficiency while the Pelicans rank 9th. The Pelicans rank 8th in offensive efficiency while the Pacers rank 18th. Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) -0 off a close home win by 3 points or less in November games are 32-5 (86.5%) ATS since 1996. The Pelicans are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Pacers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on two days' rest. Bet the Pelicans Monday. |
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11-06-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
15* Jazz/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +3.5 The Utah Jazz have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA to start the season. Everyone thought they were tanking with the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell trades. But they had run their course, and it was time for some new faces. The Jazz got a better haul back in those trades than they are getting credit for. That has proven to be the case with a 7-3 SU & 7-3 ATS start this season with seven outright victories as underdogs. Newcomers Markkanen (22.2 PPG), Sexton (13.6 PPG), Olynyk (12.7 PPG), Beasley (10.7 PPG), Vanderbilt (9.0 PPG) and Horton-Tucker (7.0 PPG) are gelling nicely with holdovers Clarkson (17.4 PPG) and Conley (11.9 PPG, 7.4 APG). The Los Angeles Clippers are one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season. They are 5-4 SU & 3-6 ATS with their five wins coming against the Rockets (twice), Spurs, Kings and Lakers. Four of those five wins came down to the wire. The four losses all came by 8 points or more and two came to the Thunder. So they have played one of the easiest schedules in the NBA, which makes their poor start even more concerning. The Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard and Luke Kennard tonight as well. They just aren't that good without Leonard, their best player. Wrong team favored here. Take the Jazz Sunday. |
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11-05-22 | Blazers v. Suns UNDER 216.5 | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
15* Blazers/Suns NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216.5 I love this spot for an UNDER bet. Portland and Phoenix just played last night with the Blazers pulling the 108-106 upset for 114 combined points. Now the books have set the total at 216.5 points for the rematch. Familiarity favors defense and UNDERS, and both teams are tired so they won't be looking to push the tempo. These teams don't like pushing the tempo, anyway. Phoenix ranks 26th in the NBA in pace while Portland ranks 23rd. Both teams have also been good defensively this season as the Suns rank 5th in defensive efficiency while the Blazers rank 12th. Injuries to both teams will also help aid us in cashing this UNDER. Portland is already without Damian Lillard (31.0 PPG) and could be without Anfernee Simons (22.0 PPG) tonight, their two best players and franchise pieces. Phoenix could be without both Cam Johnson (13.0 PPG) and Cameron Payne (8.9 PPG), two key weapons for them on offense. All three of those guys are questionable. The UNDER is 7-0 in Blazers last seven road games. The UNDER is 16-5 in Blazers last 21 games overall. The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Suns last 51 games following a loss. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings. Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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11-05-22 | Thunder +8 v. Bucks | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Oklahoma City Thunder +8 It's time to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks. They are the last undefeated team in the NBA at not only 8-0 SU, but 7-1 ATS. There has been a discount on the Bucks this season because they are missing three key players, which is part of the reason for their ATS success. But there is no discount tonight. You're asked to lay 8 points on a Bucks team that is in the worst spot they have been all season. The Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough a spot as there is in the NBA. Being short-handed adds to the difficult spot as this is a very tired team right now. The Thunder are 4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS this season with all four losses coming by 12 points or fewer, so they have been competitive in every game. They have also faced a much more difficult schedule than the Bucks have so they are battle-tested. They have outright upset wins over the Clippers (twice) and the Mavericks. They also took the Nuggets to the wire twice and the Timberwolves to the wire twice. Oklahoma City is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games overall. They are consistently catching too many points on the road over the past couple seasons, and that is the case again tonight given the terrible rest spot for the Bucks. Take the Thunder Saturday. |
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11-05-22 | Pelicans +110 v. Hawks | Top | 121-124 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans ML +110 Brandon Ingram (23.0 PPG), Zion Williamson (21.7 PPG), C.J. McCollum (20.6 PPG), Jonas Valanciunas (14.6 PPG) and Trey Murphy III (14.0 PPG) is one of the best starting lineups in the NBA. When these five have all been healthy at the same time this season, the Pelicans have dominated. I'll gladly back them as underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks tonight to pull the upset. The Hawks are 5-3 but have taken advantage of a very easy schedule. Their five wins have come against Houston, Orlando, Detroit (twice) and New York. They lost by 17 to Charlotte, by 8 at Milwaukee and by 30 at Toronto. They are without Bogdan Bogdanovic and Trey Young is questionable tonight with an eye abrasion. Whether he plays or not, the Pelicans are the better team in this game. The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Atlanta is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Atlanta is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 games following an upset win as an underdog. Bet the Pelicans on the Money Line Saturday. |
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11-04-22 | Raptors +3.5 v. Mavs | 110-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Toronto Raptors +3.5 The Toronto Raptors are flying under the radar this season. They didn't make any offseason moves of note and kept their core together. That core is better than it gets credit for, and the Raptors have a lot of chemistry to start the season as a result. They have opened 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS with two of their losses coming by 3 and 4 points. Their lone blowout loss came to Philadelphia after beating the 76ers two days prior, which is understandable in that flat spot. The Raptors have been without Fred VanVleet in their last two games, and it hasn't matter as they crushed Atlanta 139-109 and San Antonio 143-100. Now the Raptors are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 7 days and may get VanVleet back tonight. They take on a Mavericks team that has been overvalued of late going 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall. They were upset by the Thunder as 10.5-point home favorites, needed a late run to beat the Magic by 9 as 9.5-point home favorites and needed a late run to beat the Jazz by 3 as 6.5-point home favorites. If those three teams are hanging around with them, I like Toronto's chances of winning this game outright. The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Mavericks. They have great length to be able to defend Luka Doncic about as well as anyone in the NBA can. Toronto is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. Toronto is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games following two or more consecutive wins. Take the Raptors Friday. |
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11-04-22 | Warriors v. Pelicans -4 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4 The New Orleans Pelicans get Brandon Ingram back from a concussion tonight and are back to full strength. Zion Williams missed a couple games earlier this season. When Ingram (22.0 PPG), Williamson (22.8 PPG), McCollum (20.7 PPG) and Valanciunas (15.6 PPG) are on the floor at the same time, this Pelicans team is a title contender. Now they will want to prove that tonight by taking down the defending champion Golden State Warriors. They are in a great spot to do it as the Pelicans had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days. They are not only healthy, but rested and ready to go tonight. The same cannot be said for the Warriors, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after a 129-130 upset loss in Orlando last night. The Warriors are now 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS this season and the most disappointing team in the NBA. They have simply quit playing defense this season and are in the midst of a championship hangover that won't end tonight given the terrible spot for them. The Warriors are allowing 122.2 points per game and 47.4% shooting. The Pelicans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. New Orleans is also 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss. Roll with the Pelicans Friday. |
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11-04-22 | Nets v. Wizards -3 | 128-86 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington Wizards -3 The Washington Wizards are fully healthy right now and starting to form some chemistry between Beal, Porzingis, Kuzma, Morris and Barton. They are coming off a 121-111 road win at Philadelphia and I like their chances of crushing the Brooklyn Nets tonight. Speaking of chemistry, the Nets have none of it. Brooklyn is 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS to start the season with the two wins coming at home over the Pacers by 7 and the Raptors by 4. Five of their six losses have come by 9 points or more so they have rarely even been competitive. It has gotten worse before it's going to get better. The Nets fired head coach Steve Nash, and Durant was stunned by the move. Now Kyrie Irving has been suspended for doing Irving things. And Ben Simmons, who was supposed to be their savior, is out with a knee injury. I don't see any way the Nets can even be competitive tonight with Durant and a bunch of scrubs around him. The Nets are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Washington is 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 home meetings with Brooklyn. The Nets are 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. Washington should be a bigger home favorite over the hapless Nets tonight. Bet the Wizards Friday. |
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11-04-22 | Heat v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
20* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +3.5 The Indiana Pacers are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with upset road wins over the Nets and Wizards while also covering in a 7-point loss in a rematch with Brooklyn. Now they have had the last three days off to get their chemistry even better heading into this showdown with the Miami Heat. Meanwhile, the Heat will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 9th game in 15 days, which is about as difficult a spot as you will see in the NBA. The Heat are already struggling going just 4-5 SU despite playing six of their first nine games at home. They are just 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS on the road. This tough schedule to start the season has the Heat already battling injuries. They will be without Jimmy Butler tonight, and Bam Adebayo is questionable with a knee injury, so they could be without their two best players. The Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and on three days' rest. The Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win. Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Take the Pacers Friday. |
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11-03-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +7 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
20* Nuggets/Thunder NBA TV No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +7 The Oklahoma City Thunder are the single-most underrated team in the NBA. They did it last season by being the best covering team in the league despite a poor record. And they're doing it again this season, opening 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS while consistently catching too many points. The Thunder were competitive in their three losses falling by 7 as 11-point dogs at Minnesota, by 5 as 9-point dogs at Denver and by 10 as 9.5-point home dogs to Minnesota. They have won four straight since with three outright upsets over the Clippers by 14 as 5.5-point dogs, the Clippers by 8 as 7-point dogs and the Mavericks by 6 as 10.5-point dogs. They also beat the Magic by 8 as 3.5-point favorites. As I stated, the Thunder only lost by 5 as 9-point dogs at Denver. Now they'll be out for revenge on the Nuggets and are catching 7 points at home in the rematch. That's not a big enough adjustment for home-court advantage, especially with the way the Thunder are playing right now. Plus they are expected to get Josh Giddey (12.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 6.3 APG) back after missing the past three games. The Nuggets are trying to find chemistry getting both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back from injury this season. It has been a shaky start with the Nuggets going 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS including a 21-point loss at Utah, a 25-point loss at Portland and an 11-point loss to the Lakers as they are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in road games. Murray is only averaging 13.8 points per game and shooting 41.5% from the field so he has been a shell of his former self. The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Nuggets with losses by 5, 6 and 4 points along with two outright upsets by 12 and 14 points. Oklahoma City is 35-14-3 ATS in its last 52 games following an ATS win. The Thunder are 13-1 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons. Roll with the Thunder Thursday. |
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11-02-22 | Clippers v. Rockets +6 | 109-101 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Houston Rockets +6 I love the spot for the Houston Rockets tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 93-95 road loss to the Los Angeles Clippers as 9-point dogs. Now they are 6-point home dogs in the rematch, only a 3-point adjustment for home-court advantage and simply not enough for the revenge spot. The Clippers have been one of the most disappointing, overrated teams in the NBA up to this point. They are 2-4 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming by exactly 2 points each over the Kings and Rockets. They lost three games by 14 points or more and were upset by the Thunder twice. It's not getting any better for the Clippers tonight as they will be without their two best defenders in Kawhi Leonard and Robert Covington. They just cannot form any chemistry right now with all of these guys in and out of the lineup. They cannot be trusted as a 6-point road favorite over the Rockets with the way they've been playing to start the season. Roll with the Rockets Wednesday. |
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11-02-22 | Pistons +11.5 v. Bucks | Top | 91-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +11.5 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Pistons after a 2-6 start, and to 'sell high' on the Milwaukee Bucks after a 6-0 start. We saw this come to fruition last time out when the Pistons gave the Bucks all they wanted in 108-110 road loss as 13-point dogs. The Pistons were even playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 128-114 upset home win over the Warriors as 7.5-point dogs the night prior to playing Milwaukee. That makes sense the line adjustment in the bad spot for the Pistons. But now this line is 11.5 and both teams are on equal rest. I'll gladly take the 11.5 points with the Pistons in this revenge spot. It's a letdown spot for the Bucks, who are feeling fat and happy about being undefeated right now and won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Pistons for the 2nd time in 3 days. The Bucks are still without Middleton, Connaughton and Ingles and cannot be this big of a favorite against almost anyone without them. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Milwaukee) - a winning team from last season off four or more consecutive wins are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1996. Plays on road teams (Detroit) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent are 41-15 (73.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Milwaukee is 13-32 ATS in its last 45 games following three or more consecutive home wins. The Pistons are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games overall. Take the Pistons Wednesday. |
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11-02-22 | Kings +7 v. Heat | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +7 The Sacramento Kings have been undervalued since their 0-4 start against quality competition in which they were competitive in three of the four games. They came back and upset the Heat as 4-point home underdogs and then won and covered at Charlotte. I backed the Kings in both of those games, and I'm back on them again tonight in what is a very favorable spot for them. While the Kings had yesterday off, the Heat just beat the defending champion Warriors 116-109 last night. Not only is this now a letdown spot for the Heat, but they are also a very tired team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 8th game in 13 days. They could choose to rest some players tonight as this is as tough a spot as you will ever see in the NBA. That's why I'm not concerned the Kings will be without De'Aron Fox, plus they came back from 15 points down at halftime to beat the Hornets by 7 without Fox in the 2nd half. The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Sacramento is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Bet the Kings Wednesday. |
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11-01-22 | Warriors v. Heat OVER 226 | 109-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Heat OVER 226 Two teams that have taken massive steps back defensively this season square off tonight in what should be a shootout in Miami. The Warriors are clearly suffering a championship hangover and not playing defense, while the Heat lost their defensive leader in PJ Tucker to the 76ers in the offseason. Golden State ranks just 21st in defensive efficiency allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions. Miami hasn't been much better, ranking 20th in allowing 110.4 points per 100 possessions. And the Warriors play a lot of possessions as they rank 1st in the NBA in pace, while Miami has upped the tempo a little this season to 12th in pace. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Warriors' seven games this season with combined scores of 232 or more points in all seven games. They are scoring 118.7 points per game and allowing 122.0 points per game on the season. Miami's last two games have seen 232 and 233 combined points coming into this one. Miami is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games vs. Pacific Division opponents. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings. The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Miami. The OVER is 43-21 in Heat last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
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11-01-22 | Bulls +110 v. Nets | Top | 108-99 | Win | 110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
20* Bulls/Nets TNT No-Brainer on Chicago ML +110 I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight. They will be highly motivated for a victory following two consecutive losses. They have had the last two days off to get rested and ready to take down the Brooklyn Nets after last playing on Saturday. Taking down the Nets has not been a problem this season. Brooklyn is 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS with its lone wins both coming at home over the Raptors by 4 and the Pacers by 7. They have four losses by 9 points or more this season and just aren't forming any chemistry with Simmons, Durant and Irving. Now the spot is a terrible one for the Nets, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. They could choose to rest some players tonight. Either way, the Nets rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.8 points per 100 possessions. The Bulls will be able to do whatever they want to offensively. Brooklyn is 6-32 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite. The Nets are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a good 3-point shooting team that makes at least 36% of their attempts. Brooklyn is 13-37-1 ATS in its last 51 home games overall. Take the Bulls Tuesday. |
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10-31-22 | Pacers v. Nets OVER 236 | 109-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Nets OVER 236 Two teams that like to push the tempo and play little defense square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Brooklyn Nets. The Pacers rank 1st in the NBA in pace this season while the Nets rank 10th. Both teams are really struggling to start the season because they don't play defense. Indiana ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.1 points per 100 possessions. Brooklyn ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.8 points per 100 possessions. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Nets and Pacers with combined scores of 241, 260, 250, 203, 243 and 239 points with none of those games going to overtime. Those 260 and 250-point efforts came in their final two meetings last season, and they just combined for 241 points in their first meeting this season. The OVER is 11-3 in Pacers last 14 games overall. The OVER is 23-5-1 in Nets last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the OVER in this game Monday. |
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10-31-22 | Kings -2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings -2.5 The Sacramento Kings were undefeated in the preseason under first-year head coach Mike Brown, one of the best hires of the offseason. But they got off to an 0-4 start to the regular season with three close losses to the Blazers, Clippers and Warriors. The Kings finally got on the board with a win in a 119-113 home win over Miami last time out to get their swagger back. And now they are fresh and ready to go as they head to Charlotte to take on the worst opponent they have faced yet this season. While the Kings will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days, the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight. It's a terrible spot for the Hornets, who just upset the defending champion Warriors as 10-point underdogs. It's now a letdown spot for them as they won't be nearly as motivated to face the Kings tonight. Making matters worse is the Hornets will be without their two starting guards in La'Melo Ball and Terry Rozier, while the Kings are fully healthy. The Kings are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Charlotte) - a good offensive team scoring 118 or more points per game, in the first half of the season are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Kings Monday. |
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10-30-22 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 227 | 109-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Suns OVER 227 The Phoenix Suns are really clicking offensively this season. They rank 4th in offensive efficiency at 114.4 points per 100 possessions. They followed up a 134-105 win over the Warriors with a 124-111 win over the Pelicans. De'Andre Ayton was injured early in that win over the Pelicans and will miss this game, so the Suns will have to play more of a small ball lineup, which benefits the OVER. The Houston Rockets are once again terrible defensively this season and play at a fast pace. The Rockets rank 23rd in defensive efficiency allowing 113.6 points per 100 possessions. They rank 5th in pace at 105.2 possessions per game. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Rockets and Suns with combined scores of 241, 245, 204, 234, 246 and 263 points with none of those games going to overtime. As you can see, five of the last six meetings have seen 234 or more combined points. The OVER is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in Phoenix. The OVER is 8-1 in Rockets last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday. |
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10-30-22 | Wolves -5.5 v. Spurs | 98-107 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 The Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs are both off to 4-2 starts this season. The difference is the Timberwolves are a real contender in the West, while the Spurs are a pretender. This surprising start will be forgotten pretty quickly when the Spurs come back down to reality. San Antonio has caught a lot of teams sleeping on them and taken advantage. The Timberwolves will not be sleeping on them. They were one of the teams that were upset by the Spurs 106-115 at home as 8.5-point favorites. But they came back and pounded the Spurs 134-122 as 9.5-point favorites in the rematch two days later. And now they won't be taking them lightly, plus we are getting a better value on them as only 5.5-point favorites in this 3rd meeting when the Spurs won't have much home-court advantage. Also, San Antonio won't have its second-best player in Devin Vassell, who averages 19.8 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game this season. They could also be without Josh Richardson, who is averaging 11.7 points per game and making 45.2% from 3-point range. He is questionable for this one. Either way, the Timberwolves will win this game going away. Minnesota owns San Antonio. The Timberwolves are 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Spurs with all seven victories coming by 6 points or more. Minnesota is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 Sunday games. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday. |
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10-29-22 | Pacers v. Nets OVER 236 | 125-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Nets OVER 236 Two teams that like to push the tempo and play little defense square off tonight when the Indiana Pacers visit the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets rank 5th in the NBA in pace this season while the Pacers rank 11th. Both teams are really struggling to start the season because they don't play defense. Indiana ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 117.1 points per 100 possessions. Brooklyn ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 116.5 points per 100 possessions. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Nets and Pacers with combined scores of 260, 250, 203, 243 and 239 points with none of those games going to overtime. Those 260 and 250-point efforts came in their final two meetings last season, and it should be more of the same in their first meeting of 2022-23. The OVER is 10-3 in Pacers last 13 games overall. The OVER is 22-5-1 in Nets last 28 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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10-29-22 | Heat v. Kings +4.5 | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Sacramento Kings +4.5 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Sacramento Kings after an 0-4 start this season. They are much better and more talented than they have shown to this point after going unbeaten in the preseason. They just haven't been able to put it all together yet. It's only a matter of time, and I expect the Kings to pick up their first win of the season tonight. They were competitive in three of their four losses to the Blazers, Clippers and Warriors. It's a great spot for the Kings as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. They are fully healthy with the starting five of Fox, Murray, Heurter, Sabonis and Barnes all averaging double-figures scoring. Murray is starting to show why he was among the favorites to win Rookie of the Year, averaging 17.7 points per game on 51.3% shooting and 41.7% from 3-point range. Fox has taken his game to the next level averaging 30.5 points per game. It's a terrible spot for the Miami Heat, who will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days overall. They are coming off a loss to the defending champion Warriors, and it will be hard for them to be as motivated to face the Kings as they were the Warriors. The Heat are just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS this season and have been a major disappointment. They have really slipped defensively with the loss of PJ Tucker, their leader on that end of the court. The Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Kings are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Sacramento is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 Saturday games. The Kings are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Sacramento. Roll with the Kings Saturday. |
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10-28-22 | 76ers -115 v. Raptors | Top | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Philadelphia 76ers ML -115 It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Philadelphia 76ers. They have opened 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS through their first five games while being favored in four of those five games. Now we are getting them at basically even money here against the Toronto Raptors. Not only will the 76ers be motivated from this poor start, they'll also be out for revenge from a 109-119 loss at Toronto on Wednesday. Now they get their shot at revenge just two days later here on Friday. Toronto is not going to shoot 54.8% again like they did in that first meeting. Toronto is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 home games following a win by 10 points or more. The Raptors are 0-9 ATS in their last nine home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Philadelphia) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, off an upset loss as a favorite are 50-21 (70.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with the 76ers Friday. |
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10-28-22 | Hawks v. Pistons +7 | Top | 136-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +7 I love the spot for the Detroit Pistons tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 113-118 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday. Now they get to host the Hawks again here two days later and are 7-point underdogs in the rematch. They will want it more tonight. It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons coming off four consecutive losses overall. Three of those losses came on the road. They are 1-1 at home this season with that 5-point loss to the Hawks being their lone defeat. They are very healthy right now, while the Hawks are playing without Bogdan Bogdanovic. This Hawks team is getting a lot of love for a 3-1 start against arguably the easiest schedule any team has faced this season. They have played three home games against Houston, Orlando and Charlotte plus that road game at Detroit. They lost by 17 to the Hornets and were in competitive games with both Orlando and Houston as well. Atlanta is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games following a win by 6 points or less. The Hawks are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 road games. The Pistons are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win. Detroit is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Atlanta. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the Pistons Friday. |
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10-27-22 | Grizzlies v. Kings +3.5 | Top | 125-110 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +3.5 I love the spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight. They will be highly motivated for their first victory of the season after opening 0-3 SU but 2-1 ATS, so they have been competitive. They also come in on three days' rest having last played on Sunday. That extra rest and practice time is huge for this young team and first-year head coach Mike Brown, who led the Kings to a perfect preseason. They are loaded with talent and that has shown even in the losses. They lost by 7 at home to Portland after blowing a 7-point lead late. They lost by 2 to the Clippers as 2.5-point home dogs, and they lost by 5 at Golden State as 10-point road dogs. This is a terrible spot for the Grizzlies. They will be feeling fat and happy after a 134-124 home win over the Brooklyn Nets. They are off to a 3-1 start this season and it's a good time to 'sell high' on them. They needed OT to beat the Knicks at home, only won by 7 at Houston after outscoring the Rockets by 12 in the 4th quarter, failing to cover as 7.5-point favorites. And they lost badly 96-137 at Dallas as 6-point dogs. The Grizzlies are without Jaren Jackson Jr, Zaire Williams and Danny Green and it has really shown defensively as they rank 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win. Sacramento is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game. The Kings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games playing on three or more days' rest. Bet the Kings Thursday. |
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10-27-22 | Mavs -120 v. Nets | 129-125 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
15* Mavs/Nets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Dallas ML -120 I love the spot for the Dallas Mavericks tonight. They are 1-2 this season with their two losses coming by a combined 4 points to the Pelicans and Suns. They also crushed the Grizzlies 137-96 in between. They took the Pelicans lightly last time out because they were without both Ingram and Williamson, and now they come back motivated for a victory tonight. While the Mavericks are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Nets are a tired team right now. They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days. After losing 124-134 to the short-handed Grizzlies in Memphis on Monday, they lost 99-110 to the short-handed Bucks in Milwaukee on Wednesday. Now they are back home Thursday playing a Mavericks team that isn't short-handed. The Nets are now 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season after also losing by 22 to the Pelicans at home in the opener. Their lone cover came in a 4-point home win over the Raptors as 2.5-point favorites. This team is still searching for chemistry with Irving, Durant and Simmons, and the fact of the matter is they don't have much help outside those three. The Nets are also a terrible team defensively and that's not going to change with this personnel, which is why they cannot be trusted no matter how much offensive talent they have. The addition of Christian Wood makes the Mavericks even more dynamic on offense. Wood is averaging 24.3 points and 8.7 rebounds per game in just 26 minutes per game for the Mavericks. Doncic is playing at an MVP level with 34.7 points per game, 9.0 rebounds per game and 7.7 assists per game. Spender Dinwiddie is filling in nicely for Jalen Bruson, averaging 18.0 points and 3.3 assists per game. The Mavericks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Dallas is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 road games following an upset loss as a favorite. Brooklyn is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make at least 36% of their attempts. The Nets are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games. Take the Mavericks Thursday. |
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10-26-22 | Spurs v. Wolves -9 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Timberwolves -9 I love the spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. They will be out for revenge from a 106-115 upset loss as 8.5-point home favorites to the San Antonio Spurs on Monday. Now they get to face the Spurs at home just two days later and are 9-point favorites in the rematch. The books haven't adjusted enough for the revenge factor, plus the injury to San Antonio's best player in Devin Vassell, who is doubtful for this one. Vassell is averaging 19.8 points, 5.0 rebound and 4.5 assists per game this season. He had 23 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists in that win over the Timberwolves while making five 3-pointers. The Spurs have no chance of keeping this game competitive without him. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Spurs, who are coming off three straight upset road wins over the Pacers, 76ers and Timberwolves. I think those teams took them lightly after all the offseason media attention they got about tanking, plus the 27-point loss to Charlotte in the opener. Minnesota will not be taking them lightly tonight. The Timberwolves are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Spurs. They won all three meetings last season by 6, 10 and 25 points. They'll get back to dominating this head-to-head series tonight, especially in revenge mode and with the Spurs missing Vassell. Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday. |
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10-25-22 | Mavs v. Pelicans OVER 219.5 | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
20* Mavs/Pelicans TNT No-Brainer on OVER 219.5 The Dallas Mavericks are playing a lot faster this season as they rank 10th in the NBA in pace. Luka Doncic and Spencer Dinwiddie are looking to push it more than Jalen Brunson did. And the addition of Christian Wood makes the Mavericks dynamic on offense. Wood is averaging 25.0 points per game and the Mavericks rank 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Pelicans rank 6th in the NBA in pace this season. They are also 4th in offensive efficiency. I know they will be without Brandon Ingram tonight, but this total has been adjusted down because of it. The Pelicans are still loaded on offense even without him, and I think they can do their part in getting us this OVER. Both meetings in New Orleans last season went well OVER the total. They combined for 243 and 246 points in the two meetings in New Orleans. The OVER is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in New Orleans. The OVER is 7-1 in Mavericks last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five home games. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |