5* Wiseguy NBA Finals *PUNISHER* on Heat +5.5
Bottom Line: The Heat are a team of response. The fact they lost Game 1 by 11 points bodes extremely well for us as they are 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a defeat of 10 points or more. It is also worth mentioning that the road team has covered the number in 11 of the last 15 meetings between these two. Miami has a nice advantage in terms of experience having played in the Finals last year. This is uncharted territory for the Thunder. They were very fortunate to come back in Game 1 after falling behind by 13. Miami has an excellent chance to win this one straight up so we'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Finals *PUNISHER* on Heat +5.5
Bottom Line: After blowing a 2-1 lead in the 2011 NBA Finals and losing the series to Dallas, LeBron James has been on a mission. He has deferred to Dwayne Wade at times throughout the playoffs but made a decision in Game 6 of the East Finals that this is his team and he has to carry them. I expect him to do just that tonight as the Heat take the Thunder right down to the wire. We can't ignore the fact that the road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these two sides. Also, the underdog is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings and the Heat are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Oklahoma City. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points!

5* Wiseguy Game 7 "Total" Blowout on Celtics/Heat UNDER 178.5
Bottom Line: With a spot in the NBA Finals on the line, we can expect both of these elite defensive teams to get after it on the defensive end with an intensity we've yet to see this series. The Under is 10-4-1 in the Celtics' last 15 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 4-0 in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Under is even 11-2 the last 3 seasons in playoff games when Boston is in position to close out a series. The Under is 25-10 in the Heat's last 35 home games and 10-4 in their last 14 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. James absolutely went off in Game 6 and the score still finished under the number. He won't have as much success tonight - Boston will make sure of it. Plus, I expect the pace of this game to be even slower as both teams really try to value each possession and the defenses make like very difficult on the offenses.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Heat/Celtics UNDER 179.5
Bottom Line: These two teams have combined to score at least 184 points in each of the last 4 games so odds makers are clearly looking to trap the public with a line that clearly entices them to take the over. We won't fall into the trap. It's do-or-die for the Heat, and Boston basically feels the same way as it does not want to go back to Miami for a Game 7. The defenses have really picked up the intensity in the past two games, and I expect both sides to tighten the screws even more here. History is largely on our side as plays Under on all teams when the total is 179.5 or less in the 6th game of a playoff series are 18-0 the last 5 seasons. Going back to 1996, this system has produced a 44-12 record while teams fitting into it have combined for just 166.3 points. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Spurs +5
Bottom Line: Recent history asserts that the Spurs are being undervalued here. Playing on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) that outscore their opponents by 6+ points/game - after 2 straight games where both teams (it and its opponent) scored 100 points or more - has produced a 25-6 ATS record since 1996. Teams fitting into this system have been underdogs of 5.4 points on average but have only lost by an average of 0.1. We'll take the points as San Antonio takes the Thunder down to the wire with an excellent opportunity to earn an outright victory.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -7.5
Bottom Line: Bosh is expected to play tonight, and his presence on the interior should really open things up for James and Wade. This may seem like a big number, but consider that Miami has won by 8 points or more in 7 of its last 10 home games versus the Celtics. That's a 70% trend I won't hesitate to get behind. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Spurs -5
Bottom Line: The home team is a perfect 8-0 in the 2012 conference finals. In addition, the Spurs are 11-0 in their last 11 home games overall and 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus the Thunder. These 6 wins have come by an average of 10.3 points. The Spurs won Game 2 by 9 points and would have won Game 1 by 6 had OKC not made a meaningless three-pointer at the buzzer. Given these trends, I'll ride the home team tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA Parlay of the Year on Heat -1.5/Under 180
Bottom Line: I expect the Miami Heat to win Game 4 and I expect them to do so with defense. The Heat allowed Boston to shoot 50% in Game 3. They hadn't allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or higher this postseason before that. Miami in an elite defensive team, and it will really tighten the screws here. The key to slowing down Boston is slowing down Rondo. He will be the focus of Miami's defense this evening. The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win while the Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Miami is also 7-2 ATS in its last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. The Under is 7-2 in the Heat's last 9 games following a SU loss and 9-3 in the Celtics' last 12 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Under is also 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings between these teams in Boston.

5* Wiseguy NBA Parlay of the Year on Heat -1.5/Under 180
Bottom Line: I expect the Miami Heat to win Game 4 and I expect them to do so with defense. The Heat allowed Boston to shoot 50% in Game 3. They hadn't allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or higher this postseason before that. Miami in an elite defensive team, and it will really tighten the screws here. The key to slowing down Boston is slowing down Rondo. He will be the focus of Miami's defense this evening. The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win while the Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Miami is also 7-2 ATS in its last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. The Under is 7-2 in the Heat's last 9 games following a SU loss and 9-3 in the Celtics' last 12 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Under is also 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings between these teams in Boston.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Thunder -3.5
Bottom Line: The Thunder responded in Game 3, and I expect them to keep right on rolling at home where they are a perfect 6-0 in these playoffs with an 11.8-point average margin of victory. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Spurs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as an underdog and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy Conference Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Celtics UNDER 180.5
Bottom Line: The Under is 19-7-1 in the last 27 meetings between these teams in Boston, where we have become accustomed to seeing defensive battles. I have no doubt we'll see Boston's best defensive effort of the series tonight as it tries to get back in the series. The Celtics are 16-5 Under after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons and have held their foes to just 86.5 points in these games while scoring 90.5. Also, plays Under on road teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 110 points or more, are 24-4 since 1996. We've only seen an average of 177.6 total points scored in this situation. I expect both teams to play at a slower pace after such a taxing Game 2. That pace will be very conducive to the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Thunder -4
Bottom Line: The Thunder are 31-7 at home this season. Even figuring in the losses, they have won at home by an average score of 105.3 to 95.5. They are an undefeated 5-0 at home in these playoffs, winning these contests by an average score of 100.6 to 90.4. The Thunder know they must win this game to have any chance of winning the series, so we can expect their best effort of the series tonight. The Spurs have been rolling, but they haven't played a game against this good of a team on the road in a really long time. Lay the points as Kevin Durant and company rise to the occasion.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Celtics/Heat UNDER 177
Bottom Line: We only saw a total of 172 total points scored in Game 1, and the Celtics didn't play the kind of defense we are accustomed to seeing from them. I expect this to be an ugly series as both of these teams are elite defensively. Plays Under on home teams when the total is 179.5 or less (MIAMI) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 36-11 since 1996. We have only seen an average of 168.2 total points scored in this situation. Also, this system is a perfect 4-0 the last 4 seasons. The Under is 5-2 in the Celtics' last 7 road games and 10-3-1 in their last 14 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Under is 25-8 in the Heat's last 33 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points. Pound the Under.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Thunder +5
Bottom Line: The Thunder lost Game 1, but we're talking about one of the best bounce back teams in the NBA. The Thunder are 59-28-1 ATS in their last 88 games following a loss. Additionally, OKC is a flawless 10-0 ATS in road games when looking for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. It has won these games by an average of 5.5 points. Plus, the Thunder are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Pound OKC.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -8
Bottom Line: With just 1 days' rest since defeating Philly in Game 7, Boston hasn't had a chance to recover physically and emotionally. The C's had success against the Heat in the regular season but the playoffs are a different animal and Boston is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Plus, home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are looking to avenge a loss to an opponent that held them to less than 85 points, provided that foe is checking in off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, are 45-20 ATS since 1996. This system is a stellar 11-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Heat.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Thunder +5.5
Bottom Line: The Spurs won the last two regular season meetings with Oklahoma City, but the Thunder are an impressive 30-16 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent - over the last 3 seasons. They have won by an average of 2.2 points in these games. The Thunder are an impressive 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, the Thunder are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 postseason games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. Take OKC.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Celtics -5.5
Bottom Line: The home team has had the overwhelming advantage in this matchup, and I expect that to remain the case in Game 7. The home side is on a 10-2 run, including a perfect 3-0 run in the last 3 games. Those 3 wins have come by 9, 16 and 7 points. In fact, the last 10 wins by the home team have come by an average of 12.6 points. Boston is 10-1 in its last 11 home contests with those 10 wins coming by an average of 10.3 points. The Celtics are also a perfect 4-0 in these playoffs following a loss and an unbeaten 2-0 this postseason when playing with 2 days of rest. They have won their 4 bounce back games by an average of 10.5 points and their 2 games on 2 days' rest by an average of 11.0 points. Pound the Celtics.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers +3.5
Bottom Line: The numbers are in Indiana's favor tonight as home teams off a road loss by 10 points or more with a winning percentage of .600 to .750 that are matched up against a team with a winning record are 68-31 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, the Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games versus a squad with a home winning percentage above .600 and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The underdog is on a 26-12-1 ATS run when these two teams get together. Pound the Pacers.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Celtics/76ers UNDER 176
Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on all teams in Game 6 of a playoff series when the total is 179.5 or less has produced a powerful 42-12 mark since 1996, including a perfect 16-0 record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this situation have combined for just 166.6 points on average. With Philly playing to stay alive and Boston wanting to close out the series in hopes of getting a little extra rest before the East finals, I'm expecting an absolute defensive war. Pound the UNDER!

4* Major NBA GM 5 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers +7
Bottom Line: The Pacers aren't getting the respect they deserve here. They have won in Miami in this series and took the Heat to overtime in Miami during the regular season. It took spectacular games from LeBron James and Dwayne Wade and poor games from Roy Hibbert and David West for the Heat to win Game 4. The odds are certainly against James and Wade both going off the same way again. The underdog is 26-11-1 ATS in the last 38 meetings. We'll take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Pacers/Heat UNDER 181.5
Bottom Line: Playing the UNDER on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a tied playoff series, provided both teams have winning records, has produced a 36-8 record that is an unbeaten 6-0 this season. Miami have played to the UNDER in 18 of its last 23 and Indiana has finished UNDER the number in 7 of its last 10. I'm expecting a hard-fought defensive battle tonight as both teams try to seize control of the series. Bet the UNDER.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Lakers +7.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers are showing some nice value catching this many points considering the Thunder have only recorded 2 playoff victories by 8 points or more this postseason. The past three games in this series have been decided by 3 or fewer points, and I expect another close contest as the Lakers fight hard in the face of elimination. The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 at home. Plus, they are only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home contests when valued as a favorite of 5.0 to 10.5 points. We'll take the Lakers.

4* Major on 76ers +6
Bottom Line: Considering both games played in Boston during this series have been decided by a single point and considering Philly has either won or lost by fewer than 6 points in 12 of the last 17 meetings, the 76ers are clearly showing value at this number. The Celtics are only 4-17 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the 76ers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Celtics, including 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Boston. Take the points as Game 5 goes right down to the wire.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Spurs -7.5
Bottom Line: The Spurs took LA's best shot yesterday and hit back even harder. San Antonio rallied from 24 down to earn a double-digit win. That took any wind that might have been left out of LA's sails. Now, I expect them to finish the job in impressive fashion. The Spurs are 39-10-4 ATS in their last 53 games overall, 18-6-3 ATS in their last 27 road games and 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite. The Spurs are also 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings with the Clippers, including 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Heat -121
Bottom Line: Road favorites with a winning record on the season that are coming off an upset loss by 15 points or more are an impressive 35-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. They have won by an average of 8.1 points in this situation. Look for the Heat to bounce back strong following a very poor showing in Game 3.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Thunder +1
Bottom Line: The Lakers showed heart last night, but the veteran bodies of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Metta World Peace will have a very difficult time responding without a day of rest to recuperate. The Thunder and younger and deeper, and I love their chances here. The Thunder are 58-28-1 ATS in their last 87 games following a loss, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. The Lakers are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 home games, 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite, 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a win and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. The Lakers are also 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games. Pound the Thunder.

4* Major on Clippers +5.5
Bottom Line: The Spurs have been dominant in the first two games of this series but that won't keep me off the Clippers here. After all, plays against favorites leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 54-26 ATS since 1996. These teams have been favorites of 6.5 points on average but have only won by an average of 3.0 points. Plus, the Clippers are 13-4 ATS this season when out to avenge consecutive losses to an opponents. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on 76ers -130
Bottom Line: I still really like Philly ATS tonight but am taking them on the ML for insurance at a nice price. Boston is in for a letdown following its Game 3 performance. Consider that Boston is 19-34 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons and 8-23 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Philly and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. We can let one bad game by the 76ers make us forget that they had been perfect at home in the playoffs and perfect at home against Boston this season with a pair of blowout wins. 76ers bounce back strong here.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Clippers +11
Bottom Line: The Clippers are showing good value catching double figures as they are a perfect 8-0 ATS this season in road contests when out to avenge a prior loss to an opponent this season. Also, the Clippers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Take the points.

4* Major NBA "Total" Blowout on Heat/Pacers OVER 181.5
Bottom Line: The first 2 games of this series have finished under the number but both teams have shot the ball very poorly, especially from beyond the arc. Expect both sides to relax and shoot the ball much better tonight. Recent history is on our side as well. Consider that home teams facing a total between 180 and 189.5 points (INDIANA) - after scoring 90 points or less in 2 consecutive games and up against an opponent coming off a combined score of 175 points or less - have played to the over in 28 of their last 44 games. We have seen these teams score of total of 187.2 points on average in this situation, and I expect to see even more points scored than that here.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -121
Bottom Line: I really like the Heat laying a small number, but I have gone ahead and taken them on the money line for insurance. The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as a favorite and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Plus, the Pacers have been awesome fade material when checking into a game with recent success against the spread. In fact, Indiana is 1-15 ATS after covering the number in 4 or 5 of its last 6 games this season. The Pacers have lost these games by an average of 3.5 points. Take Miami.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Lakers +8
Bottom Line: I fully expect the Lakers to respond following a very poor showing in Game 1. LA has bounced back strong following its last 5 double-digit defeats, going 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in these games with a 9.6-point average margin of victory. It is also worth mentioning that teams coached by Mike Brown are 24-10 ATS all-time in road games after a loss by 10 points or more. His teams have won by an average of 3.4 points in these games. Plus, the Thunder have dropped 5 of their last 6 ATS when listed as a home favorite of 5-10.5 points. Take LA.

4* Major on 76ers -2
Bottom Line: Philly is now at home and has a ton of momentum on its side after stealing away Boston's home-court advantage. The 76ers are 3-0 at home in the playoffs and they won both of their home games versus Boston this season by 32 and 13 points. The Celtics are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Philadelphia. Boston's age has really shown in this series and Paul Pierce is clearly not close to 100 percent. Lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Spurs -11.5
Bottom Line: I have no problem laying this many points with a rested Spurs club against a banged up Clippers squad, especially since the Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater and the Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater. San Antonio is also an awesome 22-5-1 ATS in its last 28 at home. Lay the points.

4* Major on Pacers +7
Bottom Line: Miami may not have played its best in Game 1 of this series but neither did Indiana. Leading scorer Danny Granger was only 1 of 10 from the field and the Pacers shot 4 of 17 from 3-point range as a team. They still only lost by 9 points. Without Bosh, the Heat are at a disadvantage on the interior. I expect Indiana to do a better job of taking advantage of their advantage down low in this one. The underdog is 24-10-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings between these teams. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Thunder -7.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers got all they wanted and more from Denver. Now, they're up against an even more talented team that has just as much size as they do and more depth. The Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Conference Semifinal games. Also, the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Lakers are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Oklahoma City. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA Playoffs *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on 76ers/Celtics UNDER 173.5
Bottom Line: Strong situation supporting the "Under" tonight. Plays Under on home teams when the total is 179.5 or less (BOSTON) that are matched up against a division opponent and coming off a game they won but didn't cover are 43-17 since 1996. We have seen an average posted total of 174.8 in these games, but have only seen an average of 169.3 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

4* Major on Heat -8
Bottom Line: Miami is on a mission, and I believe it will waste no time sending a message to the Pacers that they're in over their heads. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest. Indiana is 9-26 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons. It has lost these games by an average of 13.6 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Grizzlies -7.5
Bottom Line: The Clippers blew their chance to win the series in Game 6. Now, Memphis is back home with all the momentum. The Grizzlies have won 13 of their last 14 at home with the only loss during this stretch coming in Game 1 when they held a 27-point advantage. They have also won 7 of their last 9 home playoff games with those wins coming by an average of 9.7 points. The Clippers are banged up and at a major disadvantage inside, where Gasol and Randolph are taking over. We'll lay the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Lakers -5.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers are 10-0 in their last 10 Game 7's at home, and I fully expect this trend to continue. They were embarrassed by the Nuggets in Game 6, which led to Kobe Bryant calling out his teammates. I have no doubt this team, which has been there and done that, will respond. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) that are out to avenge a double-digit road defeat to a foe, as long as they have a winning percentage of 60-75% on the season and are facing an opponent with a winning record, are 62-32 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is carrying a 9.6-point average margin or victory. Lay the number.

4* Major on Celtics -5
Bottom Line: This is a matchup that has been dominated by the home team recently. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings with a 17.8-point average margin of victory. The Celtics are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Boston wants this series over with as quickly as possible in hopes that it can get some extra rest before the East Finals if Indiana can take Miami deep. The Celtics won't be overlooking a team that handled them twice this season either. Bet Boston.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Grizzlies -1.5
Bottom Line: I won't hesitate to lay this small number with the Grizzlies as I believe they are the better team. They also enter this matchup healthier than LA as Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and Caron Butler are all battling injuries. The Grizzlies are 30-18 ATS in all games when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Clippers are 4-14 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Take Memphis in this do-or-die spot.

4* Major NBA "Total" Bailout on Lakers/Nuggets UNDER 197
Bottom Line: Right away the Under deserves consideration here considering these two have played to the Under in 22 of their last 29 meetings, including 13 of their last 16 in Denver. Both games in this series played in Denver have gone Under and I expect this trend to continue given the stakes of tonight's affair. The Under is 3-0-1 in the Nuggets' last 4 playoff games as a favorite and 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Under is also 4-1 in the Lakers' last 5 games following a SU loss and 21-6 in their last 27 vs. a team with a winning record. Expect the defensive intensity to be very high tonight. The Under should be the result.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Hawks +6.5
Bottom Line: The public is all over the Celtics expecting them to close out the series tonight. Knowing that would be the case, odds makers have overvalued Boston here. We won't fall for the trap. The Celtics may very well win this game, but there is a great chance they won't win by more than 6 points. 6 of the last 9 meetings between these two have been decided by 6 points or less and the underdog has covered the number in 7 of the last 9 meetings. We shouldn't be scared of the road squad either as it is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 matchups. It's also important to point out that Boston hasn't done too hot in the postseason when asked to lay this many points. In fact, it has dropped 16 of its last 21 ATS in postseason play when favored by 5-10.5 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Grizzlies -6
Bottom Line: Memphis is 27-8 at home this season. It is also 6-2 in home playoff games the last 2 seasons. One of those losses came in OT to OKC last season and the other came in Game 1 of this series when it blew a 27-point lead. In other words, Memphis is tough as nails at home. Those 6 postseason wins mentioned above have come by an average of 9.3 points. We'll lay the number as the Grizzlies take care of business on their home floor tonight.

4* Major NBA *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Knicks/Heat OVER 183
Bottom Line: Miami is 13-3 OVER after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. We've seen an average 200.3 total points scored in this situation. NY is 32-16 OVER in its last 48 games after scoring 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. We've seen an average of 188.8 total points scored in this situation. Also, the OVER is 7-3 in the Knicks' last 10 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater and 9-4-1 in the Heat's last 14 playoff games as a favorite. Bet the OVER.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Nuggets +6.5
Bottom Line: The Nuggets are 29-10 ATS in their last 39 games as a road underdog and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. The Lakers are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite, 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the points.

4* Major on Bulls -4.5
Bottom Line: The home team is on a 4-1 ATS run in this matchup and the favorite is on a 5-1 ATS run. I expect both of these trends to hold true tonight. Chicago is 15-5 ATS in home games when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons, and it has won by an average of 8.9 points in this situation. The Bulls came up short in Games 3 and 4, but I expect playing in the United Center, where they are 27-8 on the season, to work wonders.

5* Wiseguy 1st Round Game of the Year on Hawks -1
Bottom Line: I fully expect the Hawks to show up in a big way tonight following such an ugly performance in Game 4. Boston is only 1-9 ATS in road games after allowing 90 points or less 4 straight games over the last 2 seasons. It has lost by an average of 5.8 points in this situation. The Celtics are also only 7-19 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are also on a stellar 18-6 ATS run in home games in the first round of the playoffs, winning these contests by an average score of 90.9 to 83.2. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog while the Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite. Take Atlanta.

4* Major on Pacers -10
Bottom Line: The Pacers won Games 2 and 3 by 15 and 23 points, and I expect them to close out the series with another double-digit beatdown. Indiana won't let its foot off the gas tonight knowing what happened when it did Saturday. Orlando is on a lousy 15-35 ATS slide off 2 or more consecutive home losses and a poor 14-30 ATS skid off a close home loss by 3 points or less.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* on Grizzlies +1.5
Bottom Line: I fully expect the Grizzlies to bounce back from Saturday's 1-point loss. They are 53-36 ATS after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons, 39-26 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, 33-19 ATS when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and 30-17 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. In addition, Memphis is 33-18 ATS all-time as a road underdog of 6.0 points or less under coach Hollins. Take Memphis.

4* Major on Jazz +8.5
Bottom Line: I took the Knicks +8.5 Sunday as I knew they would fight hard to fend off elimination on their home floor. I'll grab the Jazz +8.5 in a similar situation today. Utah is a rock solid 25-9 at home on the season. Also, it is 8-6 in its last 14 home games versus San Antonio with 3 of those 6 losses coming by 7 or fewer points. Grab the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Lakers +2.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers didn't show up ready to play in Game 3 and were beaten badly. Prior to that, however, they had won 4 straight versus Denver by at least 4 points. LA is the more talented team, and I expect it to flex its muscles in this bounce back spot. The Lakers have covered the spread 6 times in their past 7 games following a loss of greater than 10 points. In other words, this is a team that responds following subpar efforts. Look for LA to respond here.

4* Major on Knicks +8.5
Bottom Line: The Knicks are showing value at home where they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games. NY is also 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games following a home loss in which it was held to less than 80 points. The Heat are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Prior to Game 3, the Knicks had a 5-point win over the Heat and an 8-point loss in their two most recent home contests in the series. We'll take the points.

4* Major on Bulls +3.5
Bottom Line: The Bulls are 38-15-2 ATS in their last 55 games following a loss and 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The 76ers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. Chicago doesn't have Rose and likely won't have Noah, but it still has enough to even this series with Deng, Boozer, Hamilton, Gibson and Lucas among others.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Jazz +6
Bottom Line: The Jazz are 25-8 at home on the season and check into this contest riding a 6-game home winning streak. Also, the Spurs have only defeated them by more than 6 points 3 times in the last 13 meetings in Salt Lake City. With this in mind, Utah is showing solid value at this number. San Antonio is on an 0-4-1 ATS slide in the postseason as a favorite of 5-10.5 points.

4* Major on Mavs +2
Bottom Line: The defending NBA champs have far too much pride to roll over tonight. They'll show up in this do-or-die contest, and I like them to stay alive. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 Conference Quarterfinal games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 points or fewer.

5* Wiseguy "Total" Blowout on Memphis/LAC UNDER 187
Bottom Line: We struck gold with the under in last night's Bulls/76ers matchup and I have this one coming in way under the number as well. Memphis is 11-3 UNDER in road games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. We've only seen an average of 180.1 total points scored in these games. Plus, LAC is 17-6 UNDER in home games when playing with 2 days' rest over the last 3 seasons. Both teams are fresh and both teams will be gunning for the series lead. We'll bet the under in what should be a ferocious defensive battle.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PUNISHER* on Magic +5
Bottom Line: With Indiana entering off consecutive double-digit wins and covers, we can be certain that it is being overvalued. In fact, the Pacers are just 10-22 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. It is losing by an average of 4.2 points in these games. The Pacers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points while the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Value lies with the home dog here.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Nuggets -3.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers can't be trusted here as they are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Lakers are just 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games overall. Expect Denver to come through in Game 3.

4* Major NBA *Primetime Punisher* on Bulls +1.5
Bottom Line: The Bulls get the call in Game 3 as they are 7-0 ATS when out to avenge a loss they suffered to a team this season. They haven't just won these games, they've won them by an average of 12.4 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA "Total" Blowout on Bulls/76ers UNDER 179
Bottom Line: I really like this one to finish at least 10 points under the number in what should be a defensive battle, and we have history on our side here. Playing the under on all teams when the total is 179.5 or less (Chicago in this case) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, has produced a 55-25 mark since 1996. We have only seen an average of 169.7 total points scored in this situation. Also, playing the under on any team in a playoff series that is tied is 76-38 the last 5 seasons. The Under is 4-0 in Bulls' last 4 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or fewer and 4-0 in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. The Under is also 6-1 in the 76ers' last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points and 8-2 in their last 10 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Knicks +6
Bottom Line: The Knicks are showing good value catching this many points considering they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games, including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as an underdog. It is also important to note that New York is an awesome 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games after enduring 2 consecutive double-digit road losses. With Stoudemire out and their backs against the wall, I expect the Knicks to play desperate basketball tonight. Desperate teams are dangerous, and the Knicks have the look of a dangerous dog here.

4* Major NBA "Total" Bailout (TNT) on Clippers/Grizzlies UNDER 185.5
Bottom Line: I'm expecting a very strong defensive effort from the Grizzlies tonight after such a poor showing in the 4th quarter Sunday. Memphis is 9-1 UNDER when checking into a game following an upset loss this season. Nothing gets the blood boiling like blowing a big lead. Sunday's loss assures us the Grizzlies will enter this contest with even more focus and desperation. Rather than ask the Grizz to cover the spread, we'll take the under as their defensive intensity keeps this one low scoring.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* (NBA TV) on Magic +3.5
Bottom Line: The Magic are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog, 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less and 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Pacers are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 playoff games as a favorite, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Pacers are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Magic.

4* Major (TNT) on Jazz +11.5
Bottom Line: Playing against home favorites (SAN ANTONIO) that are leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record, has produced a 33-10 ATS record since 1996. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Bailout on Nuggets +6
Bottom Line: I'll gladly take the points with the Nuggets in this bounce back spot as they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The always overvalued Lakers are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs 1st Round Total of the Year on Nuggets/Lakers OVER 200
Bottom Line: The Lakers won't be able to hold the NBA highest scoring team in check again in Game 2. The Nuggets have come out and said that they'll force a fast-paced game, and that bodes very well for us here. Denver averages 104.6 ppg on the road and LA averages 98.9 ppg at home. These averages are significant because Denver is 24-5 OVER when both it and its opponent score 98 or more points in a game this season and LA is 39-1 OVER when both it and its foe score 98 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Also, Denver is 11-3 OVER as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. We've seen an average of 211.2 total points scored in these games. Pound the over.

4* Major NBA Playoffs *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Celtics +5
Bottom Line: Odds makers have overcompensated for Rondo's suspension with this line, and we'll take full advantage. Bradley and Pierce really struggled in Game 1, and I expect much better performances from both players tonight. Plus, Boston is the top defensive team in the league, holding its foes to just 41.9% from the field and 30.8% from beyond the arc. The Celtics are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pacers -8.5
Bottom Line: The books are begging for action on Orlando here after the Magic stole Game 1, but we won't give in. The Pacers are the superior team, especially with Dwight Howard out, and I expect them to even the series with an impressive double-digit win. The Pacers are on an 80-50 ATS run when out to avenge a loss in which they were held below the 85-point mark. They are also on a 23-11 ATS streak in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. Lay the points.

4* Major on Knicks +10
Bottom Line: I expect an inspired effort from the Knicks tonight after getting completely embarrassed in Game 1. The Knicks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points in their last game. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Bailout on Grizzlies -5.5
Bottom Line: Home court cannot be overlooked in this series as the home team has won the last 4 by at least 7 points. Memphis has won its last 11 games at home by an average of 7.5 points. It also went 5-1 at home in the 2011 playoffs with a nearly double-digit average margin of victory.

5* Wiseguy NBA Playoffs *PUNISHER* (ABC) on Nuggets +5
Bottom Line: The Nuggets are showing some nice value catching this many points. After all, they are 13-4 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points this season. The Nuggets are 30-11 ATS in their last 41 games as an underdog and 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as a road underdog. The Lakers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. The Nuggets are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings with the Lakers, including 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Mavs +7.5
Bottom Line: The Mavs went 17-4 ATS in the playoffs last season, and they remain a strong playoff wager at these odds. OKC is explosive offensively, but the Mavs are an impressive 10-1 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game - in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog. Plus, the dog is 17-4-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in this matchup.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Magic +9.5
Bottom Line: Odds makers are factoring Dwight Howard's absence too heavily into this line and we'll look to take advantage. The Magic remain a dangerous team without the big fella because they can flat out drain it from deep. The Magic are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus Indiana. The Pacers are on a 1-9-1 ATS slide when laying points in the postseason.

4* Major on Heat -8.5
Bottom Line: The Heat are on a mission after losing in last year's Finals, and I expect them to waste no time sending a message to the Knicks. The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Hawks -4.5
Bottom Line: The Hawks have an opportunity to lock up home-court in the first round, and I expect them to take care of business versus a Dallas squad that will sit Jason Terry and Jason Kidd. The Hawks are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. We'll lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME TOTAL* on Clippers/Knicks UNDER 191.5
Bottom Line: The Clippers combined with the Hawks to put 211 points on the board last night. The Knicks combined with the Hawks to put 225 points on the board in their last game. Also, we've seen 224, 239 and 220 total points scored in the last 3 meetings in this series. Given the line, the books are clearly begging for the public to take the over. We won't bite. I fully expect this game to have playoff intensity on the defensive end. The Clippers are 14-5 under when playing the second game of a back-to-back this season. We've seen just 184.4 total points scored in these games. Plus, NY is 9-0 under after a win by 6 points or less this season. We've seen just 175.9 total points scored in these games. Pound the under.

5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Year on Suns/Jazz UNDER 203
Bottom Line: Both teams are fresh and with all that's at stake I expect the defensive intensity to be high. The result should be an easy under. Plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 (UTAH) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more, are 83-42 since 1996. This system is 10-1 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 4-0 this season. Also, plays Under on home teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, are 72-34 since 1996. This system is 28-6 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 4-0 this season. Lastly, the Suns are 7-0 Under this season in road games versus poor defensive teams allowing 99+ points/game. Pound the Under.

4* Major NBA Play of the Day on Nets +9.5
Bottom Line: With the knowledge that the 76ers can clinch a playoff berth with a win, odds makers have overvalued them here in an attempt to trap the public. The 76ers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Nets are coming off an 11-point loss at Milwaukee but are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points. This will be the Nets final home game in the Garden State after 35 years, and I expect the players to respect the New Jersey fans by leaving it all on the floor. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Play of the Day on Rockets +6
Bottom Line: The Heat's chances of landing the top seed in the East took a big hit with yesterday's loss to the Wizards, and Dwayne Wayne's injury was a reminder of how important it is to go into the playoffs healthy. The Heat really have no incentive to go after a win here. The Rockets, meanwhile, are in do-or-die mode as they trail Utah by a game for the last playoff spot in the West. Playing against home favorites (MIAMI) playing the second game of a back-to-back in April has produced a 180-116 ATS result since 1996. These teams have been favored by an average of 6.6 points but have only won by an average of 3.6. Also, road underdogs (HOUSTON) - extremely tired team playing their 5th game in 7 days - against an opponent that is extremely tired - playing 9 or more games in 14 days - are 54-20 ATS since 1996. These teams have been underdogs of 6.8 points on average but have only lost by an average of 3.4. This situation is 16-6 ATS this season. Take the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Rockets -12.5
Bottom Line: This is a must-win game for Houston, which is 1-game back for the final playoff spot in the West, and it catches the injury-depleted Warriors at a good time. They spent a lot of injury in last night's loss to the Mavs and have now dropped 7 in a row by an average of 15.3 points. Plus, Houston is 7-0 SU and ATS in its last 7 home games versus Golden State, winning those contests by an average of 16.7 points. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Week on Mavs -12
Bottom Line: With an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth with a win, look for the Mavs to roll in their regular-season home finale. Dallas has won 9 of its last 10 at home against Golden State with those 9 wins coming by a whopping 16.8 points per game. The injury bug has really plagued the Warriors down the stretch, and I don't believe they have enough fire power to keep the motivated Mavs from blowing them out.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Suns -2
Bottom Line: The Suns have won 9 straight at home versus the Clippers with each of those wins coming by at least 3 points. The Suns are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games as a favorite. Phoenix has won 2 of 3 versus the Clippers this season and was an underdog in each of those games. The fact that LAC is suddenly a dog while its playing its best ball of the season screams trap. We'll take the Suns.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -5
Bottom Line: After winning the season's first meeting in Miami, the Heat have dropped a pair of close contests in Chicago. This is a game the Heat want badly. A win here keeps them alive for the #1 seed in the East, and more importantly, gives them confidence against a Chicago club they'll likely see in the playoffs. The Heat have won 8 of their last 9 at home versus Chicago with those 8 wins coming by an average of 7.6 points. Also, playing on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, has produced a 61-31 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 6.2 points and have won by an average of 9.7. Lay the points.

5* Wiseguy NBA BAILOUT on Trail Blazers +4
Bottom Line: The Jazz are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 15-26 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Utah has won the season's first 2 meetings by 4 and 5 points, but Portland is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games when out to avenge 2 consecutive straight up losses to an opponent. The Blazers have won by an average of 7.0 points in this situation. We'll take the points as Portland shows up for the fans in its last home game of the season.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on 76ers -3
Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs (INDIANA) coming off a home win in which they scored 110 or more points, tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days, has produced a 91-51 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this situation have lost by an average of 8.9 points. The Pacers are also 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games when playing on 0 days' rest. This is Indiana's 4th game in 5 days. The 76ers played yesterday as well but had 2 days off prior to that game. Philly will be the fresher team tonight, and I expect it to rise to the occasion as it tries to boost its playoff position.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Thunder -2.5
Bottom Line: I'm not hesitating to lay this small number on the Thunder as they are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. OKC will be very hungry tonight following last week's 2-point home loss to the Clippers. The Thunder are 13-2 ATS in road games when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take the Thunder.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Nets +8
Bottom Line: This is Miami's second game in as many days and 4th in 5 days, and I don't think it will have the legs to cover this number tonight. The Nets haven't forgotten about the 30-point beating they were handed in South Beach last month, and I fully expect them to leave it all on the floor in hopes of avenging that defeat. Miami's starters logged over 164 minutes Sunday, which is significant because it is on a 2-6 ATS slide when their starting 5 combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Bet the Nets.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Pistons +9.5
Bottom Line: The Pistons have either won or lost to the Bulls by fewer than today's posted number in 27 of the last 32 meetings in Detroit. The home teams have covered the number in 6 of the last 7 matchups. Also, the Pistons are a very profitable 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog. Take Detroit.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on T-Wolves +11.5
Bottom Line: Even with Love out, the T-Wolves aren't getting the respect they deserve at home. They are 4-9 in their last 13 home games in the series but none of those 13 losses have come by more than 11 points. I fully expect this 13-0 trend to continue. We'll take the points.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Nuggets +4.5
Bottom Line: The Lakers have been overvalued at home and that remains the case here. They are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Nuggets, who haven't lost to the Lakers by more than 4 points in the last 4 meetings, are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 road games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games in this series.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Bucks -5
Bottom Line: Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) that average 99.0 points per game or more on the season, provided they have allowed 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games, are 46-19 ATS (70.8%) since 1996. These teams have been favored by an average of 6.0 points and have won by an average of 8.3. This system is a killer 13-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Basically, this system suggests that Milwaukee will tighten the screws defensively following consecutive poor efforts and is explosive enough offensively to cover the number.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Heat +2
Bottom Line: Off a loss to Boston, in which they allowed the Celtics to shoot 60.6%, and having tasted defeat the last time they faced the Bulls, I expect an inspired effort from LeBron James and company this evening. The Heat lost in Chicago by 4 points on Mar. 14 but had won 5 straight over the Bulls by an average of 7.2 points prior to that. This game is basically a must-win for the Heat if they want any realistic chance to claim the Eastern Conference's top seed. More importantly, the Heat need this game to prove to themselves what they have thought all along, that they're the team to beat in the East. The underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Also, the Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. We'll pound the Heat.

5* Wiseguy NBA Blowout Game of the Year on Grizzlies -5.5
Bottom Line: I love the Grizzlies at home tonight as they look to pay Phoenix back for a pair of losses in the desert earlier this season. The last time Phoenix visited Memphis, it was handed a 10-point defeat, and I expect this one to be even worse. The Suns have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road in this series with those 3 losses coming by an average of 11.3 points. Phoenix is 18-8 since mid-Feb. but has struggled against the elite, enduring losses to Oklahoma City, Miami and San Antonio during this stretch. Memphis, meanwhile, has won 8 of its last 10 with key wins against the Lakers, Thunder and Heat during this stretch. The Memphis defense has been ridiculous, holding its last 10 foes to just 90.8 points on average. The Phoenix defense hasn't been nearly as good, giving up 98.4 points to its last 10 opponents. The Suns have given up an average of 101.0 points to their last 5 opponents while the Grizzlies have allowed just 89.0 to their last 5. Memphis' defense will spark a blowout tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Heat -7.5
Bottom Line: Playing against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that check in off a double-digit win over a division rival and are up against a foe that checks in off a home blowout win of 20 points or more has produced a perfect 9-0 ATS record the last 5 seasons.

Playing against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that enter off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival and are up against a foe that enters off a home win has produced a perfect 4-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons.

Playing on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a road loss to an opponent, if that opponent checks in off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival, has produced an unbeaten 4-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons.

Lastly, playing against road teams in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's) has produced a perfect 3-0 ATS mark this season. We'll take the Heat behind this 20-0 ATS angle.

5* Wiseguy NBA *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on Blazers -3
Bottom Line: The Blazers have the advantage playing this one at home with a day of rest on their side. Houston just played Sunday and has lost 5 of its last 7 ATS when playing without a day of rest. The have also been a dead fade in this point-spread range as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games as a dog of 4.5 or fewer points. Houston is 4-13 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of its last 6 games this season and 2-11 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Pound Portland.

4* Major on Jazz pk
Bottom Line: There's a very good chance Duncan, Ginobli and Parker won't play (or will play few minutes) tonight. This gives the edge to Utah, which is an impressive 20-8 at home this season. The Jazz are on a 4-0 ATS run at home games against teams carrying winning road records. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without rest.

5* Wiseguy NBA Total of the Week on Bulls/Knicks UNDER 185
Bottom Line: The Knicks are 9-0 Under this season when checking in off a road win. We have only seen an average of 179.5 total points scored in this situation. The Under is 4-0 in the Bulls' last 4 road games, 8-3 in the Knicks' last 11 overall and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two foes in New York. New York's defense has improved drastically since the last time it faced Chicago. Expect a low-scoring defensive battle to find its way under the number here.

4* Major NBA Bailout on Kings +8
Bottom Line: The Kings are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games when matched up against a team with a winning mark at home. The Kings have lost the season's first 2 meetings but are 37-24 ATS when out to avenge a same season loss over the last 2 seasons. They have only lost by an average of 3.3 points in this situation. Take the points.