Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-26-18 | Mariners -135 v. Orioles | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle Mariners -135 The Key: This is a pretty generous price for the Seattle Mariners (48-31) over the Baltimore Orioles (23-54) tonight. The Mariners have the clear edge on the mound as they send ace James Paxton to the hill. Paxton is 6-2 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 16 starts this year with 124 strikeouts in 96 2/3 innings. Kevin Gausman is 3-6 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 15 starts for the Orioles. Seattle is 10-1 off 6 or more consecutive road games this season. Baltimore is 1-12 after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span this season. The Orioles are 0-10 vs. AL West teams this season. Baltimore is 0-7 in Gausman’s last 7 starts. Take Seattle. |
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06-25-18 | Indians -128 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
7* Interleague Game of the Week on Cleveland Indians -128 The Key: The Cleveland Indians have reeled off 7 straight victories heading into this series with the Cardinals. They are hitting the cover off the ball right now as they have scored double-digit runs in 3 of their last 4, and 6 or more in 5 of their last 6. Mike Clevinger remains one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He is 6-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 15 starts this season, 3-1 with a 2.27 ERA in 7 road starts, and 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his last 3 starts. John Gant is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA in 3 starts for the Cardinals this season. St. Louis is 0-7 in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better over the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals are 0-7 off an upset win over a division opponent as an underdog this season. St. Louis is 0-5 in Gant’s last 5 starts. The Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 games overall. These four trends add up to a 26-0 angle backing the Indians. Take Cleveland. |
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06-24-18 | Phillies v. Nationals -113 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
7* Phillies/Nationals NL East Game of the Year on Washington -113 The Key: The Washington Nationals aren’t about to get swept at home by the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. They will win Game 3 on ESPN. Nick Pivetta is 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 6 road starts this year. Pivetta has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-2 with an 11.81 ERA and 2.44 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against them. He has yielded 14 earned runs, 6 homers and 26 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in those 3 starts. Take Washington. |
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06-23-18 | Blue Jays v. Angels -130 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
7* Blue Jays/Angels American League *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -130 The Key: The Los Angeles Angels should make easy work of the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. Jaime Barria has been awesome this season at 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in nine starts. Marcus Stroman is still in search of his first victory for the Blue Jays. He is 0-5 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in seven starts. The Blue Jays are 1-10 in their last 11 road games. The Angels are 7-1 in their last 8 home games. The Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Los Angeles. |
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06-22-18 | A's -123 v. White Sox | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -123 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland A’s -123 (Game 2) The Key: The Oakland A’s have won 4 straight while scoring a combined 28 runs in the process. They should stay hot at the plate tonight against Chicago’s Lucas Giolito, who has been one of the worst starters in the league this season. Giolito is 4-7 with a 7.19 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 14 starts this year, including 1-4 with an 11.05 ERA and 2.012 WHIP in 7 home starts. Chris Bassitt sports a 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through his 2 starts this season. The White Sox are 2-16 off 3 consecutive games against a division opponent this season. The A’s are 13-3 in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below 40%. The White Sox are 1-8 in Giolito’s last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Chicago is 1-6 in Giolito’s last 7 home starts. The A’s are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Take Oakland. |
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06-20-18 | White Sox v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
7* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-130) The Key: The Indians have a big edge on the mound today with Corey Kluber over Reynaldo Lopez. Kluber is 10-3 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 15 starts this year. The Indians have gone 7-1 in Kluber’s last 8 starts against the White Sox, during which he has compiled a 2.05 ERA while yielding only 12 earned runs in 52 2/3 innings. Reynaldo Lopez was shelled for 7 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in his last start against the Indians on May 30th. The White Sox are 10-42 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Indians are 23-5 in Kluber’s last 28 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Indians will win by multiple runs Wednesday. Take Cleveland on the Run Line. |
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06-19-18 | Brewers v. Pirates -112 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
7* NL Central Game of the Month on Pittsburgh Pirates -112 The Key: It’s important that the Pittsburgh Pirates sweep this series with the Milwaukee Brewers. They currently are 6 games behind the Brewers in the race for 1st place in the NL Central. They won 1-0 yesterday in Game 1 and should take Game 2 tonight as well. Jameson Taillon is having a fine season at 4-5 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 14 starts, including 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Taillon sports a 3.47 ERA in 7 lifetime starts vs. Milwaukee. He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last 4 starts against the Brewers. Freddy Peralta makes just his 3rd start of the season for the Brewers tonight. The Pirates are 25-11 in home games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings and 6-2 in the last 8 home meetings. Take Pittsburgh. |
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06-18-18 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -111 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
7* Diamondbacks/Angels ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -111 The Key: The Los Angeles Angels are hungry for a victory after losing 6 of their last 7 games coming in. All were on the road, and now they return home from a 9-game road stand. The Angels should fare much better at home in Game 1 of this series with the Diamondbacks. Jaime Barria has been great this season at 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 8 starts. He has been even better at home at 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 4 starts. Zack Greinke has been great at home but sub-par on the road throughout his career. That is the case again in 2018 as Greinke is 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 6 road starts this year. Greinke is 3-5 with a 4.00 ERA in 11 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. The Angels are 13-5 in their last 18 interleague home games. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 in their last 7 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. Arizona is 4-14 in its last 18 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Los Angeles. |
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06-17-18 | Phillies -107 v. Brewers | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Philadelphia Phillies -107 The Key: The Philadelphia Phillies have a big edge on the mound today with Aaron Nola over Chase Anderson of the Brewers. Nola is 8-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 14 starts this year. He has never lost to the Brewers, going 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA in 4 lifetime starts against them. Anderson is 5-5 with a 4.13 ERA in 13 starts this year, but 3-2 with a 5.06 ERA in 7 home starts. Anderson is also 1-2 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against the Phillies. Take Philadelphia. |
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06-16-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals +109 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
7* Cubs/Cardinals NL Central *HEAVY HITTER* on St. Louis +109 The Key: After getting embarrassed 5-13 by the Cubs yesterday, the Cardinals should come back hungry for a victory against their rivals tonight. Carlos Martinez has been very sharp this season at 3-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 10 starts. He has been awesome at home at 1-1 with a 1.84 ERA in 6 starts. Kyle Hendricks is 4-6 with a 3.48 ERA in 13 starts this year. Hendricks has leaked oil on the road, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 5 starts. Hendricks is 1-9 off a win this season. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Martinez’s last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. St. Louis is 4-1 in Martinez’s last 5 starts against Chicago. Take St. Louis. |
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06-15-18 | Twins v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
7* AL Central Game of the Month on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-108) The Key: The Indians should be able to win by multiple runs over the Twins today. Corey Kluber gets the ball looking to build on a terrific season already. He is 10-2 with a 1.99 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 14 starts, including 6-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 7 home starts. Kyle Gibson is having a decent season but is just 1-4 in 13 starts. He is 2-6 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 14 lifetime starts vs. Cleveland. Kluber has really shut down the Twins in recent starts against them. He is 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA in his last 3 starts against Minnesota, yielding just 1 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings with 29 strikeouts. The Twins are 2-8 in their last 10 road games. The Indians are 48-16 in their last 64 vs. a team with a losing record. Cleveland is 46-17 in Kluber’s last 63 starts. Take Cleveland. |
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06-14-18 | Mets v. Diamondbacks -128 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
7* National League *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona Diamondbacks -128 The Key: The Diamondbacks are on fire at the plate right now. They have scored 8 or more runs in 5 of hitter last 6 games coming in. They should feast on the Mets’ Jason Vargas, who is 2-4 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in 7 starts, and 1-2 with a 10.34 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in 4 road starts. Vargas is also 2-2 with a 7.11 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Arizona. Matt Koch has been solid for the Diamondbacks at 4-3 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 10 starts this year. The Mets are 1-10 after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span this season. Take Arizona. |
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06-13-18 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks OVER 7 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
06-12-18 | Twins v. Tigers -102 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
7* AL Central Game of the Month on Detroit Tigers -102 The Key: The Detroit Tigers got a much-needed day off yesterday and should be rejuvenated. It probably felt like a vacation after playing 18 games in 17 days prior and going 10-8 in that tough stretch. I really like the attitude of this team because almost everyone counted them out, but they are still right in the thick of the AL Central race. Blaine Hardy has been solid in 5 starts this year, going 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, including 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 3 home starts. Jake Odorizzi is 0-1 with an 8.36 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his last 3 starts for the Twins. The Tigers are 21-16 (+11.4 units) at home this season. The Twins are 12-18 (-5.3 units) on the road. The Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 games following an off day. The Twins are 1-7 in their last 8 games following an off day. Minnesota is 0-6 in Odorizzi’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series. Take Detroit. |
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06-11-18 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
7* MLB Total of the Week on Red Sox/Orioles OVER 8.5 The Key: Both Steven Wright and Dylan Bundy are in line to get rocked tonight. Wright is 2-2 with a 7.17 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. Baltimore. Bundy is 3-6 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 10 lifetime starts vs. Boston. The OVER is 8-1-2 in Red Sox last 11 Monday games. The OVER is 9-2 in Lundy’s last 11 starts when working on 4 days of rest. Take the OVER. |
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06-10-18 | Angels v. Twins -111 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
7* American League Game of the Month on Minnesota Twins -111 The Key: The Minnesota Twins should be hungry for a victory here Sunday. They have lost the first two games of this series to the Angels and will be looking to avoid the sweep. Fernando Romero is the better starter in this matchup. He is 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA in 7 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in 3 home starts. Nick Tropeano is 3-3 with a 4.35 ERA in 9 starts for the Angels. Romero faced the Angels on May 13th and yielded just one run in 5 innings for a 1.80 ERA. He will shut them down today as the Twins get a win to avoid the sweep. Take Minnesota. |
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06-09-18 | Indians v. Tigers +165 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 165 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
7* AL Central Game of the Week on Detroit Tigers +165 The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Tigers at home today. Mike Fiers has held his own this season at 5-3 with a 4.33 ERA in 11 starts. He is 3-1 with a 3.97 ERA in 6 home starts this year and has gone 7-4 against the money line to net backers +7.0 units of profit on the season. Fiers is also 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. Cleveland. These are numbers of a starter who shouldn’t be this big of a home underdog today. Mike Clevinger is 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. Cleveland is only 6-11 (-10.6 units) as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Detroit is 10-5 (+11.8 units) as a home underdog of +125 or more this season. Take Detroit. |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
7* Warriors/Cavs Game 4 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 216 The Key: As a series goes on, games tend to be lower and lower scoring. That has been the case in this series as well as each game has been lower scoring than the next. The Cavs and Warriors combined for 212 points in Game 3 and now we’re seeing a total of 216, so I think there’s value with the UNDER. Both teams know what each other is trying to do, which makes scoring at a premium. The UNDER is 10-3 in Warriors last 13 games overall. The UNDER is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 11-5 in Cavaliers last 16 home games. Take the UNDER. |
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06-08-18 | Mariners -113 v. Rays | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
6* American League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Seattle Mariners -113 The Key: The Mariners have gone 6-1 in their last 7 games to improve to 39-23 on the season. The Rays have gone 0-7 in their last 7 games to fall to 28-33. Now Tampa Bay will continue deploying its strategy to start relievers, which isn’t working. Wilmer Font will get his first start this season for the Rays. Font is 0-2 with a 9.78 ERA on the season for Tampa. Marco Gonzalez has been on fire at 3-0 with a 0.44 ERA in his last 3 starts, and he’s now 6-3 with a 2.97 ERA in 12 starts this year. Gonzalez pitched 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball in a 3-1 win over the Rays on June 2nd in his only lifetime start against them. Tampa Bay is 2-15 after scoring 4 runs or less in 6 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Take Seattle. |
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06-07-18 | Tigers v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
7* American League *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+120) The Key: Left-hander Jalen Beeks will make his major league debut for the Red Sox at Fenway Park tonight. This guy isn’t getting the love that he deserves after what he’s done in the minors. Beeks is 3-3 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 10 starts for Triple-A Pawtucket this season. He has struck out 80 batters and walked 14 in 56 1/3 innings with a .197 batting average against. Matt Boyd is 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA and 2.33 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. Boston. The Red Sox are 12-1 vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 or fewer walks per game this season, and they’re winning in this spot by 4.1 RPG. Take Boston on the Run Line. |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
7* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 The Key: It’s do or die for the Cavaliers tonight. I like backing teams with their backs against the wall because you know what kind of effort you are going to get from them. While the Cavs will be at 110% tonight, the Warriors could relax after protecting home court with their 2-0 series lead. And the Cavs will be happy to return home where they are 8-0 SU in their last 8 playoff games. Take Cleveland. |
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06-06-18 | Rockies -125 v. Reds | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
6* National League *CA$H COW* on Colorado Rockies -125 The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Colorado Rockies as small road favorites over the Cincinnati Reds, who are just 21-40 this season, including 9-20 at home. Sal Romano is 3-6 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 12 starts this season for the Reds, including 1-2 with a 9.39 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Romano is also 1-1 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. Colorado. Jon Gray has never lost to the Reds, going 3-0 with a 4.58 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against them. Take Colorado. |
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06-05-18 | Mariners v. Astros -117 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
7* Mariners/Astros AL West *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -117 The Key: It’s rare you will get the chance to back the defending champion Astros at this kind of price at home this season. We’ll take advantage tonight. The Astros want to send the Mariners a message that they won’t be losing the AL West this season as they currently trail the M’s by one game. Dallas Keuchel sports a 3.65 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 12 starts this year. Keuchel is 8-6 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 15 lifetime starts vs. Seattle. The left-hander has yielded 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last 6 starts against the Mariners while going 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA in the process. The Astros are 37-16 in Keuchel’s last 53 home starts. The Astros are 26-10 in the last 36 meetings, including 5-1 in Keuchel’s last 6 home starts vs. Seattle. Take Houston. |
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06-04-18 | Diamondbacks +102 v. Giants | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
7* Diamondbacks/Giants NL West *BAILOUT* on Arizona +102 The Key: The Arizona Diamondbacks have gotten back on track with a 5-1 run over their last 6 games. Their offense has come to life by scoring a total of 42 runs in those 6 games, or an average of 7 per game. They should stay hot against Derek Holland, who sports a 4.59 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in his career. Holland is 3-6 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 11 starts this year. Zack Godley hasn’t been as sharp as last year, but he is still solid. And Godley is 2-1 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts vs. San Francisco. Arizona is 12-2 vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 or fewer walks per game this season. The Diamondbacks are 11-5 as a dog of +100 to +150 this season. Godley is 11-1 as a dog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Wrong team favored in this game. Take Arizona. |
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06-03-18 | Cavs +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
7* Cavs/Warriors Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +11.5 The Key: The Warriors clearly should not be double-digit favorites against the Cavs in Game 2 tonight. The Cavs should have beaten them in Game 1 and were the better team until overtime. And with the injuries to the Warriors’ Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala, they aren’t the juggernaut that they are perceived to be. The Cavs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference teams. The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when playing on 2 days rest. Take Cleveland. |
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06-03-18 | Nationals -110 v. Braves | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Washington Nationals -110 The Key: The Washington Nationals have a big edge on the mound today with Jeremy Hellickson over Animal Sanchez. Hellickson is 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 8 starts this season. Sanchez has only made 3 starts with a 3.60 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. But he hasn’t been good for years and his numbers will only get worse as the season goes on. Hellickson is 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Atlanta. The Nationals are 14-3 in their last 17 road games. Washington is 5-0 in Hellickson’s last 5 starts. Take Washington. |
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06-02-18 | Cubs v. Mets -116 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on New York Mets -116 The Key: The New York Mets will be hungry for a victory today after losing the first two games of this series to the Cubs. They are favored for good reason today because they have a big edge on the mound. Jacob DeGrom is 4-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 11 starts this year, including 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 5 home starts. DeGrom is 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Cubs, yielding just 4 earned runs in 21 innings. Mike Montgomery will be making just his 2nd start for the Cubs this season and is no more than a spot starter who is used to the bullpen. DeGrom is 17-4 at home when the money line is -100 to -150 in his career. The Cubs are 3-8 in their last 11 road meetings with the Mets. Take New York. |
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06-01-18 | Brewers -129 v. White Sox | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -129 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Milwaukee Brewers -129 The Key: The Brewers (36-21) are the vastly superior team over the White Sox (16-37) in this series. And they have a big edge on the mound, which should warrant being a bigger favorite than they are tonight. Chase Anderson has done his best work on the road this season with a 2.19 ERA and 0.97 WHIP across 4 starts. Anderson sports a 1.69 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in one lifetime start vs. Chicago as well. Hector Santiago is 1-2 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 5 starts this year, including 0-2 with a 10.61 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in 2 road starts. He has allowed 5 homers in his last 2 starts. The Brewers are 9-0 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. Milwaukee is 6-1 in Anderson’s last 7 road starts. The White Sox are 7-20 in Santiago’s last 27 starts, including 4-11 in its last 15 home starts. Chicago is 0-9 in its last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%. Take Milwaukee. |
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05-31-18 | Marlins v. Padres -134 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on San Diego Padres -134 The Key: The Padres have a big edge on the mound tonight with Jordan Lyles over Wei-Yin Chen. Lyles is 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 4 starts this year, including 1-1 with a 0.73 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in 2 home starts. Chen is 1-2 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 6 starts this year, including 0-2 with a 10.95 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in 3 road starts. The Marlins are 13-30 in their last 43 road games and 0-4 in Chen’s last 4 road starts. Take San Diego. |
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05-31-18 | Cavs +13 v. Warriors | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
7* Cavs/Warriors Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland +13 The Key: This Game 1 line has gotten out of control. Too much has been made of the Warriors being massive favorites in this series. I think it will be closer than most expect, starting with Game 1 tonight as the Cavs are ridiculous 13-point underdogs. Kevin Love may or may not play, but it doesn’t matter as the Cavs were great without him and actually better defensively in winning their final two games against Boston. Andre Iguodala is the best defender Golden State has against Lebron James, but he’s going to be out for Game 1. James should be able to have his way against Golden State’s defense to keep this one closer than expected. Take Cleveland. |
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05-30-18 | Nationals -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Month on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-126) The Key: The Washington Nationals are 20-6 in their last 26 games. They have won 7 of their last 8 and are up against the 17-38 Baltimore Orioles. The Nationals will send ace Max Scherzer to the mound to shut down the Orioles, who have scored a total of 8 runs in their last 5 games. Scherzer is 8-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 11 starts this year with 108 strikeouts in 71 2/3 innings. He is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his last 2 starts against the Orioles while yielding only 2 earned runs in 16 innings. David Hess is 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 3 starts this year for the Orioles. Two of those starts have come against the light-hitting Rays. He was rocked in his only tough start against the Red Sox for 5 runs and 3 homers in 4 2/3 innings. The Nationals should be able to hang a big number on him as well. The Nationals are 12-1 in their last 13 road games. Take Washington on the Run Line. |
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05-29-18 | Giants v. Rockies -137 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
7* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Colorado Rockies -137 The Key: The San Francisco Giants are just 11-18 on the road this season and scoring 3.2 RPG on the highway. Things won’t get any easier for them tonight against Colorado’s Kyle Freeland, who is 4-5 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 10 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 1.40 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 3 home starts. Freeland is 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. San Francisco. Jeff Samardzija has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the past few seasons. He is 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 7 starts this year. Samardzija gave up 8 earned runs in 6 innings in his last start at Colorado last season. The Giants are 37-73 in all road games over the last 2 seasons, including 13-36 against division opponents. San Francisco is 1-6 in Samardzija’s last 7 road starts. The Rockies are 11-1 in their last 12 home meetings with the Giants. Take Colorado. |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +6.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
7* Warriors/Rockets Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +6.5 The Key: The Houston Rockets have held their own at home against the Warriors. After losing Game 1, they came back to win Game 2 and 5. And they were favorites in all 3 previous home games in this series. Yet now they are 6.5-point underdogs in Game 7. I like the price we are getting with them here. Andre Iguodala is doubtful while Kevin Looney is questionable. Chris Paul could return today, but it’s factored into the line that he’s not playing, so if he does it would only be an added bonus. The Rockets showed they could play with the Warriors without Paul by taking a 17-point lead in Game 6 before faltering in the second half. They should be able to sustain that level of play for 48 minutes this time around due to the boost they’ll get from their home fans. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss. Take Houston. |
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05-28-18 | Giants v. Rockies -117 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
6* Giants/Rockies NL West *CA$H COW* on Colorado -117 The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Colorado Rockies as small home favorites over the San Francisco Giants tonight. The Rockies have the edge on the mound with Chad Bettis, who is 4-1 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 10 starts this year. He’ll be opposed by Andrew Suarez, who is 1-4 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 6 starts, including 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Suarez is also 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in 3 road starts this year. Bettis is 1-0 with a 2.66 ERA in his last 3 starts against San Francisco. The Giants are 1-5 in Suarez’s last 6 starts. San Francisco is 22-52 in its last 74 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rockies are 15-3 in Bettis’ last 18 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Rockies are 10-1 int heir last 11 home meetings with the Giants. Take Colorado. |
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05-27-18 | Cavs v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 87-79 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
7* Cavs/Celtics Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -2.5 The Key: This one is just about as easy as it gets. The home team is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the six meetings thus far in this series. The home team has won all 6 games by 9 points or more. Boston has beaten Cleveland by 25, 13 and 15 points in its three home meetings. The Cavs’ role players just don’t travel well. And now they’ll be without Kevin Love due to a concussion, making their task even more daunting today. The Celtics are 10-0 at home in the playoffs and will improve to 11-0 while earning a trip to the NBA Finals with a victory tonight. Take Boston. |
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05-27-18 | Reds v. Rockies -145 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
6* National League *CA$H COW* on Colorado Rockies -145 The Key: The Rockies will bounce back after losing by a single run to the Reds at home yesterday. German Marquez has given up just 3 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts and comes in pitching well. He’s the better starter in this matchup with Matt Harvey, who is 1-2 with a 4.63 ERA in seven starts this year, including 0-1 with a 6.16 ERA in four road starts. The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win. The Rockies are 5-0 in Marquez’s last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take Colorado. |
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05-26-18 | Twins +125 v. Mariners | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 8 m | Show | |
6* American League *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Twins +125 The Key: The Twins lost 2-1 to the Mariners in Game 1 of this series last night. They will bounce back with a win here Saturday. Wade LeBlanc starts for the Mariners and is one of the worst starters in the big leagues. Jake Odorizzi has proven to be a great addition for the Twins this offseason. He has gone 3-2 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 10 starts, including 1-0 with a 1.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his last 3 outings. He pitched 6 shutout innings against the Mariners in his last start against them on May 14th. The Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 road games. The Twins are 9-4 in their last 13 meetings in Seattle. Take Minnesota. |
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05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
7* Rockets/Warriors Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -11.5 The Key: No Chris Paul, no chance for the Rockets. They suffered a huge blow when he hurt his hamstring in the final seconds of Game 5 and has now been ruled out for Game 6. He is the heart and soul of this team. He is also a massive part of their game plan. Mike D’Antoni staggers the minutes of Paul and Harden to make sure that at least one of them is on the court at all times. Now the onus will be on Eric Gordon to take over Paul’s role, but he’s much better working off the ball. And the Rockets will have to go deeper into their thin bench. Houston knows it has a home game in its hip pocket coming up in Game 7, so I don’t expect the Rockets to be giving 100% trying to win Game 6. It’s do or die for the Warriors, so they should come out like gangbusters and cover this 11.5-point spread with ease. Take Golden State. |
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05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
7* Celtics/Cavs Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -7 The Key: Home-court advantage has made all the difference in this series thus far, and I don’t see that changing in Game 6 in this do-or-die game for Cleveland. The Celtics know they still have a home game in their back pocket, which is huge considering they are 10-0 at home in these playoffs. They can afford to not show up tonight. The Cavs don’t have the same luxury. The Cavs are 7-0 at home in the playoffs, while the Celtics are 1-6 on the road. The home team is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series with an average win of 18 PPG. Take Cleveland. |
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05-25-18 | Mets -123 v. Brewers | 3-4 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on New York Mets -123 The Key: The New York Mets have a big edge on the mound tonight with Noah Syndergaard over Junior Guerra. Syndergaard is 4-1 with a 2.92 ERA in 10 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA in 3 road starts. Syndergaard has never lost to the Brewers, going 2-0 with a minuscule 0.49 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against them. Guerra was terrible last season and while he has held his own thus far in 2018, it’s not going to last. He is 1-2 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 4 home starts this year. The Mets are 12-4 on the road with a total of 7.0 to 8.5 this season. New York is 11-2 in Syndergaard’s last 13 starts vs. NL Central teams. The Brewers are 1-5 in Guerra’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take New York. |
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05-24-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 219.5 | Top | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
7* Warriors/Rockets Game 5 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 219.5 The Key: I’m surprised the books keep setting the number too high in this series. The UNDER is 3-1 and we’ve seen lower scoring games as the series has gone on. Houston beat Golden State 95-92 for only 187 combined points in Game 4. Now this total is 219.5 for Game 5, which is 32.5 points more than their Game 4 result. They will likely score more points than in Game 4, but they won’t reach 220 or more. These teams are very familiar with each other now and defense is winning out. It has become an isolation series as neither team is able to move the ball on offense. That results in longer possessions and contested shots at the end of the shot clock frequently. Houston is 13-2 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 games overall. The UNDER is 38-18 in Rockets last 56 games overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 Thursday games. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the UNDER. |
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05-24-18 | Red Sox v. Rays +120 | 3-6 | Win | 120 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
6* Red Sox/Rays AL East *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +120 The Key: The Tampa Bay Rays will be hungry to avoid the sweep tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Red Sox, and three straight overall. They had won six straight prior to this skid. Blake Snell has been the Rays’ best starter this year and is capable of shutting down the Red Sox. Snell is 5-3 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.07 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 4 home starts. Rock Porcello is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.673 WHIP in his last 3 starts. This will be the 4th time that Porcello has faced the Rays already this season, which is a big advantage for the home team having already seen him 3 times. Snell has held the Red Sox to just 2 earned runs in 13 innings in his 2 starts against them in 2018. The Rays are 6-2 in their last 8 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. The Rays are 8-2 in Snell’s last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take Tampa Bay. |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 206.5 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
7* Cavs/Celtics Game 5 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 206.5 The Key: Boston will control the tempo playing at home tonight just as they did in Games 2 and 3. The Celtics and Cavs combined for just 191 points in Game 1 and 201 points in Game 2. Now we’re seeing a total of 206.5 in Game 5, which I believe to be too high here. The UNDER is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 14-6 in Cavs last 20 games following an ATS win. The UNDER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Boston. Take the UNDER. |
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05-23-18 | Braves v. Phillies -116 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
6* Braves/Phillies NL East *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia -116 The Key: The Phillies have lost 7 of their 11 meetings with the Braves this season. They won’t get to play them again until September 20th, so they want some revenge here. They also want to end with a series win after splitting the first two games. Jake Arrieta will get the job done for them tonight. Arrieta is 3-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 8 starts this year, including 2-0 with a 1.07 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 4 home starts. He is also 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Atlanta. Luis Gohara will be making his first start for the Braves this season. He has made three previous appearances out of the bullpen, but he cannot be expected to go deep into this game, which favors the Phillies getting into the Braves’ bullpen earlier. The Braves are 1-4 in Gohara’s last 5 starts. The Phillies are 14-3 in their last 17 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Take Philadelphia. |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
7* Rockets/Warriors Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +9 The Key: The Houston Rockets will put forth a much better effort in Game 4 than they did in Game 3. It was mind-blowing how poorly they played, and the Warriors took advantage. But the Warriors will likely not have Andre Iguodala tonight, a key piece in their Hampton’s 5 lineup. Buckets will be easier to come by for Houston without having Iguodala’s presence on the defensive end tonight. And the Rockets surely won’t shoot as poorly as they 39% they shot in Game 3 as they continued to miss layup after layup. They made great adjustments in Game 2, and I expect the same for Game 4 tonight. Take Houston. |
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05-22-18 | Giants v. Astros -1.5 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Houston Astros -1.5 (-125) The Key: The Houston Astros have a big edge on the mound tonight with Gerrit Cole over Andrew Suarez. Cole has been lights out in Houston, going 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.80 WHIP while striking out 93 batters in 61 2/3 innings. Cole is also 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts vs. San Francisco. Andrew Suarez is 1-3 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 5 starts for the Giants, including 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in his last 2 starts while yielding 9 earned runs, 18 base runners and 3 homers in 10 innings against the Pirates and Reds. The Astros will be the toughest lineup he has faced yet this season. San Francisco is 3-16 in road games vs. a bullpen with a WHIP of 1.15 or better over the last 2 seasons. They are losing by 3.1 RPG on average. Take Houston on the Run Line. |
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05-21-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
7* Celtics/Cavs Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -7 The Key: The Cleveland Cavaliers are 35-13 at home this season, including 6-1 in the playoffs. The Boston Celtics have been vulnerable on the road in the playoffs. They are just 1-5 in their 6 road playoff games. The Cavs won Game 3 by 30 and should have no problem covering this generous 7-point spread at home tonight to square this series. Tyronn Lue is 16-5 ATS off a blowout home win by 20 points or more as the coach of the Cavs. Take Cleveland. |
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05-21-18 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers +103 | 2-4 | Win | 103 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
6* Diamondbacks/Brewers NL *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee +103 The Key: The Milwaukee Brewers should be able to win as home underdogs against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. It’s shocking that the Diamondbacks are favored considering they are just 1-10 in their last 11 games overall. This poor stretch is largely due to all the injuries in their lineup. The Brewers keep winning on the regular and are now 28-19 this season, consistently undervalued. Chase Anderson is 3-3 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 8 starts this year. Zack Greinke is 1-2 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 3 road starts, continuing his career trend of being great at home but sub-par on the road. Anderson is 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. Arizona. Greinke is 1-3 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts vs. Milwaukee. Arizona is 3-14 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better this season. Milwaukee is 17-4 vs. teams who average 2.75 or fewer extra base hits this season. Take Milwaukee. |
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05-20-18 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 85-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
7* Rockets/Warriors Game 3 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 226 The Key: Points will be harder to come by as this series goes along and the Rockets and Warriors learn offensive tendencies. These teams are both better defensively than they get credit for. Houston is 9-1 UNDER off a combined score of 215 points ormolu in two straight games this season. The Rockets are 7-0 UNDER in road games off three consecutive home games this season. The UNDER is 11-1 in Rockets last 12 vs. NBA Pacific division. The UNDER is 21-10 in Rockets last 31 overall. The UNDER is 4-1 in Warriors last five games overall. Take the UNDER. |
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05-20-18 | Indians v. Astros -132 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
6* Indians/Astros ESPN *BAILOUT* on Houston -132 The Key: The Astros will be able to take down the Indians at home tonight behind Lance McCullers. The right-hander has been dominant at home in his young career. McCullers is 14-5 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 32 home starts. He has gone 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 3 home starts this year. Carlos Carrasco has allowed 9 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in his last 2 starts against Houston. The Astros are 32-14 in their last 46 home games. The Astros are 56-27 in their last 83 games following a loss. Take Houston. |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
7* Celtics/Cavs Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -6 The Key: This is a great situation to back the Cavaliers. They are down 0-2 and returning home for a must-win game. They will be 100% locked in. It also helped them having three days off after last playing on Tuesday, especially Lebron James who really needed the rest. The Cavs should come out like gangbusters tonight. The Celtics will likely relax knowing that they have a cushion now after keeping their home-court advantage. And while the Celtics haven’t lost at home in these playoffs, they are just 1-4 on the road with their lone victory coming in overtime. Take Cleveland. |
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05-19-18 | Padres v. Pirates -134 | 6-2 | Loss | -134 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on Pittsburgh Pirates -134 The Key: The Pittsburgh Pirates have won 8 of their last 10 games overall and are looking to bounce back from a one-run loss to the Padres yesterday. They should get the job done thanks to their edge on the mound in this game. Nick Kingham is a nice young prospect for the Pirates. He is 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in 2 starts while striking out 16 batters in 12 1/3 innings. Clayton Richard is 2-5 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 9 starts for the Padres, including 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in 3 road starts. The Padres are 1-5 in Richard’s last 6 road starts. San Diego is 5-16 in its last 21 games following a win. The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Pirates are 19-7 in their last 26 home games. Take Pittsburgh. |
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05-18-18 | Cubs -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
7* NL Central Game of the Month on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+100) The Key: The Chicago Cubs come into this series with the Reds hungry for a victory after dropping 3 of their last 4 games. They will win by multiple runs tonight thanks to their edge on the mound. Jon Lester is 3-1 with a 2.66 ERA in 8 starts this year, including 1-0 with a 1.62 ERA in his last 3 starts. He’ll be opposed by Homer Bailey, who is 1-5 with a 5.59 ERA in 9 starts, 0-4 with a 6.33 ERA in 5 home starts, and 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. Bailey sports a 4.53 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 18 lifetime starts against the Cubs. The Cubs are 9-0 in Lester’s last 9 Friday starts. Chicago is 27-6 in Lester’s last 33 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Reds are 5-16 in Bailey’s last 21 home starts. Cincinnati is 5-22 in its last 27 division games. The Reds are 0-4 in Bailey’s last 4 starts vs. Chicago. The Cubs are 43-18 in the last 61 meetings. The Cubs are 11-2 in Lester’s last 13 starts vs. Cincinnati. Take Chicago on the Run Line. |
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05-17-18 | A's v. Blue Jays -112 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
7* American League Game of the Month on Toronto Blue Jays -112 The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Toronto Blue Jays are small home favorites over the Oakland A’s today. The A’s are in a massive letdown spot in this series with the Blue Jays. They are coming off back-to-back road series at the Yankees and Red Sox and won’t be nearly as excited to face Toronto. The A’s are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in Game 1 of this series. Andrew Triggs is 3-1 in spite of a 5.31 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 8 starts for the A’s this season. He’ll be opposed by Aaron Sanchez, who is clearly the better starter at 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA in 8 starts. The A’s are 1-7 in Triggs’ last 8 starts during Game 1 of a series. Oakland is 12-27 in its last 39 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Toronto is 6-0 in Sanchez’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Blue Jays are 11-3 in Sanchez’s last 14 starts during game 1 of a series. Take Toronto. |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1.5 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
7* Warriors/Rockets Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -1.5 The Key: The Houston Rockets will be hungry to even this series and get right back in it. They did win two out of three against the Warriors during the regular season, so they know they are capable. And it’s unlikely Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson shoot that well again. The Warriors are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games off a win by 10 points or more. Golden State is also just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on one day of rest. Take Houston. |
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05-16-18 | Reds v. Giants -145 | 6-3 | Loss | -145 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
6* National League *MOUND MISMATCH* on San Francisco Giants -145 The Key: I’ve backed the Giants each of the last two days with success and I’m back on them against against the lowly Cincinnati Reds as they cap off the series sweep. They have the edge on the mound once again with Andrew Suarez, who is 1-2 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 4 starts, and 0-1 with a 4.38 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 2 home starts. Matt Harvey is 0-2 with a 5.04 ERA in 5 starts this season, and 0-1 with a 6.00 WHIP in 3 road starts. Harvey is on a pitch count right now and will allow the Giants to get into the Reds’ bullpen early. Harvey has never beaten the Giants, going 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against them. Take San Francisco. |
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05-15-18 | Reds v. Giants -128 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
6* Reds/Giants National League *BAILOUT* on San Francisco -128 The Key: I cashed in the Giants last night and I’m back on them again tonight at a very generous price at home against one of the worst teams in baseball. The Reds were getting too much love from the books due to their 6-game winning streak coming into this series. They continue to get too much love tonight. They are still just 14-28 on the season. The Giants came into the series not getting any love after a 1-6 stretch. And that continues here in Game 2. I like Ty Black over Tyler Mahle in this one. Blach gave up only 2 earned runs in 7 innings in his last start against the Reds. Cincinnati’s best hitter Joey Votto was injured last night and may not play tonight. The Reds are 13-35 against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take San Francisco. |
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05-15-18 | Cavs +1 v. Celtics | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Cleveland Cavaliers +1 The Key: I’m shocked the Cavs aren’t big favorites over the Celtics in Game 2 tonight. They got their asses kicked in Game 1 and are sure to come back with a big effort tonight. They made only 4 3-pointers in the game and shot just 15% from distance. The odds of them shooting anything close to that again from deep are slim to none. The Cavs will come with a much better game plan after making some adjustments, and they are clearly the more talented team in this series. That talent will shine through in Game 2 tonight. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Cavs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 trips to Boston. Take Cleveland. |
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05-14-18 | Reds v. Giants -138 | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
6* Reds/Giants National League *BAILOUT* on San Francisco -138 The Key: The San Francisco Giants return home from a brutal 10-game road trip. They went 1-6 over their final 7 games and will be hungry for a victory Monday night against the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are in a letdown spot off a shocking 4-game sweep of the Dodgers and a 6-game winning streak overall. That’s why we are getting the Giants at a lower price than we should be here. Chris Stratton has been effective for the Giants this season and should shut down this Reds’ lineup. Sal Romano is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 3 road starts this year. The Giants are 8-0 in Stratton’s last 8 starts with a total set of 8 to 8.5. San Francisco is 7-1 in Stratton’s last 8 home starts. Cincinnati is 15-41 in its last 56 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Reds are still just 16-37 in their last 53 games overall. Take San Francisco. |
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05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | Top | 119-106 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
7* Warriors/Rockets Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -1 The Key: The Houston Rockets are the only team in the NBA that has the goods to beat the Warriors. They are very similar teams, but the Rockets have the deeper bench and will be able to hang with the Warriors in this series. I think they take Game 1 tonight in Houston. They won 2 of 3 meetings with the Warriors during the regular season. They are hungry for a title and realize this is their best chance since Hakeem Olajuwon. Houston is 22-8 ATS off a home ATS loss where they won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take Houston. |
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05-13-18 | Reds v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 5-3 | Win | 102 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
6* Sunday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Reds/Dodgers OVER 7.5 The Key: This total has been set lower than it should be today. Luis Castillo and Rich Hill have both been awful this year and should get rocked. Castillo is 2-4 with a 6.47 ERA in 8 starts, and 1-2 with a 7.22 ERA in 5 road starts. Hill is 1-1 with a 7.11 EREA in 4 starts this year, including 0-1 with a 10.38 ERA in his lsat 3 starts. The OVER is 4-0 in Hill’s last 4 starts overall. Take the OVER. |
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05-13-18 | Cavs -1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 83-108 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
7* Cavs/Celtics Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -1.5 The Key: Lebron James and the Cavaliers will prove to be too much for the Celtics in this series, and it starts with Game 1 tonight. They are extra rested after sweeping the Raptors and will look to continue their dominance of the Celtics in the playoffs. The Cavs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a blowout home win by 20 points or more. That’s a 91% angle backing the Cavs here this afternoon. Take Cleveland. |
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05-12-18 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
7* MLB Total of the Month on Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 9 The Key: We should see plenty of runs tonight between the Red Sox and Blue Jays. David Price is returning from injury and is 0-3 with an 8.47 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Marco Estrada has struggled all year to the tune of a 5.21 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 7 starts. Estrada has allowed 12 earned runs in 7 2/3 innings in his last 2 starts against the Red Sox. Take the OVER. |
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05-11-18 | Reds v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
7* MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+105) The Key: The Dodgers have lost 4 of their last 5 and will be hungry for a victory here Friday against the Reds. They should get it with room to spare. Kenta Maeda has pitched well at home this year at 1-1 with a 1.98 ERA in 3 starts. Maeda is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his lone lifetime start vs. Cincinnati. Matt Harvey can’t be too motivated after getting traded to the terrible Reds. Harvey has been broken over the last few years. He is 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 4 starts this season. Harvey is also 2-2 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 10-3 in Maeda’s last 13 home starts. The Reds are 26-56 in the last 82 meetings. Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. |
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05-10-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
7* Red Sox/Yankees AL East *Total* Annihilator on OVER 9 The Key: I expect plenty of runs tonight between two of the best offenses in baseball. The Yankees are scoring 5.7 RPG overall and 6.4 RPG at home. The Red Sox are scoring 5.5 RPG overall. C.C. Sabathia has pitched well this year but he’s getting too much respect from oddsmakers with this low total. And Eduardo Rodriquez sports a 5.29 ERA in 6 starts this year, including a 7.02 ERA in his last 3 outings. The Yankees are 8-1 OVER as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. New York is 13-2 OVER in home games after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The OVER is 6-1 in Rodriquez’s last 7 starts. The OVER is 4-1 in Sabathia’s last 5 home starts. Take the OVER. |
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 102 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
7* 76ers/Celtics Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston +1 The Key: The Boston Celtics simply do not lose at home. They have not only gone 7-0 straight up, but also 7-0 against the spread in their last 7 home games. Now they are home underdogs to the 76ers in Game 5, where they just have to win to cover. Sign me up. The Celtics are 10-0 ATS as home underdogs this season. They are also 10-0 ATS when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss this season. Couple these trends with the 7-0 home trend and we have a 27-0 angle backing the Celtics. Take Boston. |
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05-09-18 | Pirates -106 v. White Sox | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
6* Interleague *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh Pirates -106 The Key: The Chicago White Sox are a mess right now and cannot be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. The White Sox are 1-8 in their last 9 games overall. The Pirates hung 10 runs on them yesterday and have now scored a combined 19 runs over their past two games. Their bats should stay hot against Reynaldo Lopez, who gave up 5 runs in his last start against the White Sox. Trevor Williams has been lights out for the Pirates this season. He is 4-2 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 7 starts this year, including 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 4 road starts. The White Sox are 3-14 at home this year, including 1-9 in home day games. The Pirates are 9-2 in their last 11 interleague games. Take Pittsburgh. |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 228.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
7* Pelicans/Warriors Game 5 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 228.5 The Key: The Pelicans and Warriors have combined for 224, 237, 219 and 210 points in games 1-4, respectively. They have been lower scoring games than oddsmakers have anticipated, and I think there’s a good chance Game 5 stays well UNDER 228.5 points as well. Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 or more, an extremely well rested team playing 5 or less games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 67-34 since 1996. Take the UNDER. |
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05-08-18 | Nationals -116 v. Padres | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
6* National League *CA$H COW* on Washington Nationals -116 The Key: The Washington Nationals are 8-1 in their last 9 games overall. They have gotten some key pieces back from injury in their lineup, and their pitching has been lights out. This is a generous price on the Nationals tonight as small road favorites over the Padres, who are just 13-23 this season. Jeremy Hellickson sports a 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 4 starts this year. He’ll be opposed by Clayton Richard, who is 1-4 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 7 starts. The Padres are 2-12 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season. San Diego is 5-21 in Richard’s last 26 starts against NL East opponents. The Padres are 0-6 in Richard’s last 6 starts against the Nationals. Take Washington. |
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05-07-18 | Giants v. Phillies -105 | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
6* National League *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia Phillies -105 The Key: The Phillies get the nod tonight due to their edge on the mound. Zach Eflin was sharp in giving up just one earned runs in 6 innings against the Marlins in his last start. He has a 1.50 ERA on the season. Jeff Samardzija is making his way back from injury, and it has been a rocky start to the season. Samardzija is 1-1 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 3 starts this year. He is also 1-3 with a 9.23 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against Philadelphia. The Phillies are 10-1 in their last 11 home games off 9 straight games against division opponents. Take Philadelphia. |
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05-07-18 | Celtics v. 76ers -6 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
7* Celtics/76ers Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -6 The Key: The 76ers have blown late leads in each of the last two games in this series. They know they are better than Boston and still have hope that they can make this a series. It starts with a victory in Game 4 tonight. Philadelphia is 11-2 ATS in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games. Take Philadelphia. |
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05-06-18 | Orioles v. A's OVER 9 | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
6* Sunday MLB *Total* Annihilator on Orioles/A’s OVER 9 The Key: Expect plenty of runs between the Orioles and A’s this afternoon to push this total OVER 9 runs. Both starting pitchers are terrible. Alex Cobb has gone 0-3 with a 9.68 ERA and 2.38 WHIP in 4 starts this year for the Orioles. Andrew Triggs is 2-1 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 6 starts for the A’s, including 0-0 with a 9.95 ERA and 2.05 WHIP in two home starts. Oakland is 28-12 in its last 40 home day games. Baltimore is 37-20 OVER in its last 57 road day games. The OVER is 10-4 in Orioles last 14 road games. The OVER is 9-2 in Triggs’ last 11 starts. Take the OVER. |
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05-06-18 | Warriors -6 v. Pelicans | Top | 118-92 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
7* Warriors/Pelicans Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Golden State -6 The Key: The Golden State Warriors had an uncharacteristic poor shooting night in Game 3 and were blown out by the Pelicans 119-100. They shot just 38% as a team and 29% from 3-point range. The chances of them shooting anything close to that poorly in Game 4 are slim to none. The Pelicans are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games off an upset win by 15 points or more as a home underdog. Bets on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points when revenging a loss where the other team scored 100 points or more against an opponent that’s off a home win where they scored 110 or more points are 32-11 ATS since 1996. Take Golden State. |
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05-05-18 | Astros -120 v. Diamondbacks | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
6* Astros/Diamondbacks Interleague *CA$H COW* on Houston -120 The Key: The Houston Astros didn’t need their bullpen at all last night as Gerrit Cole tossed a complete game shutout in an 8-0 victory. They likely won’t need their bullpen much in this one either with Charlie Morton on the mound, but it’s nice to know they are fresh. Morton has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last 2 seasons. He has been especially good this season, going 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 6 starts with 45 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings. Zack Greinke has been hittable this season as he’s 3-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 6 starts. Morton is 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA in 7 lifetime starts against Arizona, including 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his last 4 starts against the Diamondbacks, yielding just 4 earned runs in 25 1/3 innings. The Astros are 7-0 in their last 7 road games. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague games against a right-handed starter. Take Houston. |
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05-05-18 | Celtics v. 76ers -8.5 | Top | 101-98 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
7* Celtics/76ers Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -8.5 The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers blew a 22-point lead at Boston in Game 2. I expect them to get up big in Game 3 as well and not relinquish the lead this time playing in front of their home fans. They know this series is far from over if they handle their business at home these next two games. I always like backing the team that’s down 0-2, especially when their at home because they usually give their best effort in Game 3 in this situation. Philadelphia is 8-0 ATS in Saturday home games this season. The 76ers are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 home games overall. Take Philadelphia. |
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05-04-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans +5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
7* Warriors/Pelicans Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans +5 The Key: If the Pelicans are going to win a game in this series, it’s likely to be Game 3 tonight at home. They were impressive in Game 2 in giving the Warriors all they wanted in a 5-point loss as 11-point underdogs. Now they are catching 5 points at home tonight, which is too much. The Pelicans are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 home games. Golden State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%. Take New Orleans. |
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05-04-18 | Phillies v. Nationals -121 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
6* NL East Game of the Week on Washington Nationals -121 The Key: The Washington Nationals have been grossly underrated after their 11-16 start to the season. They have since reeled off 5 straight victories to get to .500 and have a chance to get a winning record here today as they host the Phillies. They have the clear edge on the mound with Gio Gonzalez, who is 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 6 starts, and 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in 3 home starts. Nick Pivetta is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA in 6 starts for the Phillies, but 0-0 with a 4.00 ERA in 2 road starts. Pivetta is 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA in two lifetime starts against Washington. Gonzalez is 10-7 with a 2.69 ERA in 23 lifetime starts vs. Philadelphia. The Phillies are 34-71 in their last 105 road games. Take Washington. |
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05-03-18 | A's -108 v. Mariners | 1-4 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
6* A’s/Mariners AL West *BAILOUT* on Oakland -108 The Key: The A’s have a huge edge on the mound tonight and should be bigger favorites against the Mariners. Sean Manaea has been virtually unhittable to this point. He is 4-2 with a 1.03 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in 6 starts this season. Manaea is 4-3 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 8 lifetime starts against Seattle. He held the Mariners to 1 run and 2 hits in 7 innings of a 2-1 victory in Seattle on April 15th in his last start against them. Wade LeBlanc will be making his season debut for the Mariners tonight and will be on a short leash. The A’s are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. Oakland is 8-2 in Manaea’s last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 home games. Take Oakland. |
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05-03-18 | Cavs v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 128-110 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
7* Cavs/Raptors Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -6.5 The Key: The Toronto Raptors are in a must-win situation already after giving away Game 1. The Cavaliers’ role players like JR Smith and Kyle Korver got hot from 3-point range and helped stage a comeback from 14 points down. The Cavs would win in overtime. I look for the Cavs to relax and the Raptors to be going pedal to the metal in Game 2. The Cavs are still just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Raptors are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Toronto is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Toronto. |
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05-02-18 | Yankees v. Astros +112 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
6* Yankees/Astros AL *CA$H COW* on Houston +112 The Key: It’s rare that you get the opportunity to back the Houston Astros as home underdogs. We’ll take advantage tonight as they host the New York Yankees. The head-to-head pitching matchup clearly favors the Astros. Dallas Keuchel is the Yankees’ killer, going 6-3 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 9 lifetime starts against them. Luis Severino has never beaten the Astros, going 0-2 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against them. Take Houston. |
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05-02-18 | Jazz +11 v. Rockets | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
7* Jazz/Rockets Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah +11 The Key: Bets against home favorites when leading in a playoff series, a team that wins 75% or more of their games against a team with a winning record are 45-21 ATS since 1996. The Rockets are 1-10 ATS off 3 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 2 years. The price is right to back the Jazz as double-digit underdogs in Game 2 tonight. Take Utah. |
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05-01-18 | Yankees v. Astros -160 | 4-0 | Loss | -160 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
6* Yankees/Astros AL *CA$H COW* on Houston -160 The Key: Justin Verlander still hasn’t lost as a member of the Houston Astros. Verlander is 9-0 with a 1.22 ERA in 11 starts during the regular season with Houston. He is 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA in 6 starts this season. Jordan Montgomery isn’t good enough to take hime down. He’s 2-0 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 5 starts this year as walks have been an issue for him. Montgomery is 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. Houston. Verlander is 3-0 with a 0.79 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Yankees, yielding just 2 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings. The Yankees are 0-7 in their last 7 meetings in Houston. The Astros are 14-2 in Verlander’s last 16 starts. Take Houston. |
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05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
7* Cavs/Raptors Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -6.5 The Key: Toronto has a big rest advantage in Game 1 of this series. They haven’t played since April 27th, while the Cavs played two days ago on April 29th. The Cavs were pushed to the brink by the Pacers and needed a Game 7 at home to win that series. Their 4 wins in that series came by a combined 14 points. They are clearly more vulnerable than they have been in years’ past. The Raptors have a huge home-court advantage. They are 37-7 at home this year and winning by over 10 PPG on average. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Cavs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Lebron and company are in over their heads here in Game 1. Take Toronto. |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 205 | Top | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
7* 76ers/Celtics Game 1 *Total* Annihilator on OVER 205 The Key: The 76ers have become an offensive juggernaut. They have scored 103 or more points in 21 consecutive games now. They will look to blitz the Celtics in Game 1 of this series to try and take the upper-hand. They haven’t played in 6 days and will be looking to push the tempo every possession possible. The Celtics have still managed to be efficient offensively despite their injuries. They have scored 101 or more points in eight of their last 11 games overall. The OVER is 11-2 in Boston’s last 13 playoff home games. The OVER is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 home games overall. The OVER is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 games when playing on 3 or more days rest. Take the OVER. |
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04-30-18 | Phillies -140 v. Marlins | 4-8 | Loss | -140 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
6* Monday MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Philadelphia Phillies -140 The Key: The Philadelphia Phillies come in hungry for a win after losing 3 of 4 to the Braves over the weekend. They won’t be taking the Marlins lightly. The Marlins are off rare back-to-back wins to improve to just 9-18 this season. Dan Straily will be making his first start of the season for the Marlins and cannot be expected to pitch past the 5th inning. Jake Arrieta is 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 4 starts this year, and he’s worth laying this price with today. Arrieta has never lost to the Marlins, going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against them. Straily sports a 5.35 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts against the Phillies. Take Philadelphia. |
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04-29-18 | Yankees v. Angels +100 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
6* Yankees/Angels ESPN *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles +100 The Key: The Los Angeles Angels will be hungry for a victory on ESPN tonight after losing the first 2 games of this series to the Yankees. I think they have the edge on the mound in this game with Tyler Skaggs over C.C. Sabathia, who will face his stiffest challenge yet tonight. Skaggs is 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 5 starts this year. The Angels are 6-1 in Skaggs’ last 7 starts. Take Los Angeles. |
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04-29-18 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 206 | Top | 96-110 | Push | 0 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
7* Jazz/Rockets Game 1 *Total* Annihilator on OVER 206 The Key: The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between the Jazz and Rockets. They have averaged 216.7 combined points per game in those 7 meetings. They have combined for at least 213 points in 6 of those 7 meetings. I think the price is right to back the OVER in Game 1 of this series based on those recent head-to-head results. Take the OVER. |
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04-28-18 | Mets v. Padres -127 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
6* National League *CA$H COW* on San Diego Padres -127 The Key: The San Diego Padres will get back in the win column today behind rookie sensation Joey Lucchesi. He has gone 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 5 starts this season. Jason Vargas will be making his season debut for the Mets tonight. New York is 18-46 in its last 64 games vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start. The Mets are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win. Take San Diego. |
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04-28-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
7* Bucks/Celtics Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -4.5 The Key: Home-court advantage has meant everything in this series. The home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the six games thus far. I see no reason for that trend to change with everything on the line in this Game 7 tonight. The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Boston is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games following an ATS loss. The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home meetings. Take Boston. |
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04-27-18 | Thunder +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 91-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
7* Thunder/Jazz Game 6 *BAILOUT* on Oklahoma City +6.5 The Key: The Utah Jazz must be shell-shocked after blowing a 25-point lead in Game 5 when they could have closed out the Thunder. Now all the pressure is on them, and the Thunder are oozing with confidence after staving off elimination in dramatic fashion. I think this number is a bit high here getting the Thunder as 6.5-point underdogs given the situation. They still have the two best players in the series, and Russell Westbrook and Paul George refused to lose by the way they played in the 2nd half of Game 5. I trust that duo to keep them competitive in Game 6. The Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Oklahoma City. |
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04-27-18 | Mariners v. Indians -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
6* Friday MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-113) The Key: The Indians lost Game 1 4-5 to the Mariners last night. They will come back hungry for a victory here in Game 2 and should have no problem winning by multiple runs with ace Corey Kluber on the mound. Kluber is 3-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 5 starts this season. Kluber is 3-2 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Seattle. Erasmo Ramirez will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Mariners. He gave up 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings at Texas in his first start on April 22nd. It won’t go much better for him here against the Indians tonight. The Mariners are 1-6 in Ramirez’s last 7 starts. Seattle is 1-7 in Ramirez’s last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Indians are 40-14 in their last 54 home games. Cleveland is 39-15 in Kluber’s last 54 starts. The Indians are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss. Take Cleveland on the Run Line. |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
7* Celtics/Bucks Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -4 The Key: The home team has won every game in this series and has covered all but one. The lone exception was when the Bucks nearly blew a 16-point halftime lead in Game 4 and won by 2 as 6-point favorites. Now they are only 4-point favorites in Game 6 with their season on the line, and I think this is a generous price for them tonight. The Bucks have shot better than 52% in 3 of their last 4 games against the Celtics and have clearly figured out how to score on them, especially at home. Make it 6 straight wins for the home team in this series tonight with a win and cover by the Bucks. Take Milwaukee. |
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04-26-18 | Rays v. Orioles -117 | 9-5 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
6* AL East *CA$H COW* on Baltimore Orioles -117 The Key: The Baltimore Orioles will be hungry to stop their losing streak tonight. They should get it done due to the edge they have on the mound in this one. Dylan Bundy has pitched like an ace, going 1-2 with a 1.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 5 starts with 40 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings. Chris Archer is 1-1 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in 5 starts for the Rays. Archer is 5-7 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 16 lifetime starts vs. Baltimore. Archer has allowed 5 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts against the Orioles. Tampa Bay is 1-9 after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. The Orioles are 5-1 in Bundy’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Rays are 0-4 in Archer’s last 4 road starts vs. Orioles. Take Baltimore. |
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04-25-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
7* Jazz/Thunder Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -3.5 The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder have gone 15-1 in their last 16 home meetings with the Utah Jazz. They have outscored the Jazz by over 13 PPG in those 16 games. Now they’re laying only 3.5 points in Game 5 in this do-or-die situation. I think this is a generous price for the Thunder tonight. Take Oklahoma City. |
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04-25-18 | Nationals -151 v. Giants | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
6* Wednesday MLB *MOUND MISMATCH* on Washington Nationals -151 The Key: The Washington Nationals have lost 4 straight and will be looking to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Giants today. Look for them to deliver a win here and stop the bleeding with their ace on the mound. Max Scherzer continues to be the best starter in baseball. He is 4-1 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in 5 starts this season with 47 strikeouts in 33 innings. Scherzer is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Giants. Jeff Samardzija will be making just his second start this season. He is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA in his last 5 starts against Washington, giving up 20 earned runs in 28 innings. The Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 after losing the first 2 games of a series. Washington is 38-15 in Scherzer’s last 53 starts. The Giants are 1-4 in Samardzija’s last 5 starts. Take Washington. |
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04-24-18 | Marlins v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
6* National League *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120) The Key: The Miami Marlins are now just 5-17 on the season with 13 of their 17 losses coming by 2 runs or more. The Dodgers are 7-1 in their last 8 games with 5 of the 7 wins coming by 2 runs or more. The Dodgers are 53-15 in home games over the last 2 seasons. The Marlins are 6-22 in their last 28 road games. Kenta Made has 22 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings pitched this season and clearly has his stuff dialed in. Dillon Peters is 2-2 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 4 starts for Miami, including 0-2 with a 15.94 ERA and 2.73 WHIP in 2 road starts. The Dodgers are 16-5 in Maeda’s last 21 home starts, and 7-1 in Maeda’s last 8 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. |
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04-24-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
7* Bucks/Celtics Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -3.5 The Key: The Boston Celtics could get a nice boost with the possible return of Marcus Smart for Game 5. He has missed the entire series, but he has been upgraded to questionable, which means there’s a good chance he plays. The Celtics haven’t needed him to outplay the Bucks thus far in this series, but his energy and defense could be a big boost as this series returns to Boston for the all-important Game 5. Boston is 11-2 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. The Celtics are 18-5 ATS revenging all losses this season. The Bucks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Bucks. Take Boston. |
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04-23-18 | Thunder +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 96-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
7* Thunder/Jazz Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City +4.5 The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder have their backs against the wall tonight down 2-1 in this series. Look for them to respond in a big way with an upset victory in Salt Lake City. Russell Westbrook guaranteed that Ricky Rubio would not have another great game like he did in Game 3 out of nowhere, and I look for a big game from Westbrook in this one. The Thunder are 35-19 ATS in their last 54 road games revenging a loss of 10 points or more. Take Oklahoma City. |
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04-23-18 | Marlins v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
6* National League *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120) The Key: Walker Buehler is the top prospect in the Dodgers’ farm system. He gets his chance at a spot start here in place of Rich Hill (blister). Buehler is 1-0 with a 2.10 ERA in 3 starts for Triple-A Oklahoma City. In 13 innings, he had 16 strikeouts and only 4 walks. He is up against the Marlins, who are 5-16 and hitting .223 and scoring 3.3 RPG as a team this season. 13 of Miami’s 16 losses have come by 2 runs or more. The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 games with 5 of the 6 wins coming by 2 runs or more. The Dodgers are 52-15 in home games over the last 2 seasons. Los Angeles is 40-12 in its last 52 games vs. a left-handed starter. Miami is 6-21 in its last 27 road games. The Mariners are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take Los Angeles on the Run Line. |
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04-22-18 | Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 218.5 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
7* NBA 1st Round Total of the Year on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 218.5 The Key: The price is right to back the UNDER in this game between the Raptors and Wizards. The over is 3-0 through the first 3 games, which has forced oddsmakers to set a total higher than it should be for Game 4 knowing that the public will be betting the over again. The total was only 213.5 exactly for the first two games in this series, and now it’s 218.5 for Game 4, a 5-point adjustment. As a series goes on teams get more familiar with one another and that favors defense. Both teams have shot lights out thus far, but the points won’t be as easy to come by in Game 4. Washington is 10-2 UNDER after scoring 105 points or more in 3 straight games this season. Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 a good team that outscores their opponents by 3 or more points per game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 40-13 since 1996. Take the UNDER. |