Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-17-18 | Missouri v. Tennessee +7 | 50-17 | Loss | -129 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS as part of our CFB Saturday Trifecta. Tennessee is one win away from getting back to a bowl game after going 4-8 last season. The Volunteers are coming off an impressive win against Kentucky last week as they got their revenge against their rival and they will be out for revenge this week after losing to Missouri 50-17 last season. The Tigers snuck past Vanderbilt last week to improve to 6-4 in what has been considered a down season based on expectations. This is their final road game of the season and already bowl eligible, looking ahead to their final home game next week is a definite possibility. Here, we play against road favorites in the second half of the season averaging between 5.6 to 6.2 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl, after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992. 9* (346) Tennessee Volunteers |
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11-17-18 | West Virginia -6.5 v. Oklahoma State | 41-45 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a play on the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS as part of our CFB Saturday Trifecta. Oklahoma St. needs just one more win to secure a bowl bid but the Cowboys are heading in the wrong direction. They are coming off a disheartening loss last week against rival Oklahoma as they missed a two-point conversion with a minute left that likely would have won the game. Rebounding from that is going to be tough. West Virginia can win the Big XII regular season championship if it wins out and that includes a huge game hosting Oklahoma next week. The Mountaineers have not been their best on the road but the price is right and they catch the Cowboys at a perfect time. Here, we play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost five or six out of their last seven games going up against an opponent after having won three out of their last four games. This situation is 27-4 ATS (87.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (389) West Virginia Mountaineers |
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11-17-18 | Nevada -14.5 v. San Jose State | 21-12 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEVADA WOLF PACK as part of our CFB Saturday Trifecta. The season cannot end quick enough for San Jose St. which has just one victory and has been outgained in eight of 10 games, six of which have been by more than 100 total yards. The Spartans are coming off one of their worst efforts of the season against Utah St. and we cannot see them hanging here against a Nevada team that is peaking at the right time. The Wolf Pack has won three straight games to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2015. After losing their first two road games, they have won their last two and with UNLV on deck, they can get to eight wins for the first time since 2010. Here, we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing 525 or more total ypg over their last three games going up against an opponent after allowing 3.75 or less yppl in their previous game. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1992. 9* (379) Nevada Wolf Pack |
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11-17-18 | Northwestern v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. (originally posted incorrectly as Northwestern) With the win over Iowa last week and earlier wins over Wisconsin and Purdue, Northwestern wrapped up the Big Ten West Division making the final two games of the regular season pretty meaningless. The Wildcats are 4-0 on the road but is by far their most vulnerable spot away from home. Minnesota checks in at 5-5 and needs one more win to become bowl eligible and with the rivalry game at Wisconsin next week, this is the best chance. Here, we play against road underdogs off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (330) Minnesota Golden Gophers |
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11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU +7.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the SMU MUSTANGS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Many picked SMU to finish last in the AAC West and with three straight losses of 23 points or more, things were looking bleak. Then the Sonny Dykes offense started to click and the Mustangs have won five of their last seven games to become one win away from going to a second straight bowl game. The losses came against 9-0 Central Florida and 9-1 Cincinnati, the latter coming in overtime. It seems as though SMU continues to get no respect as it is a home underdog for the fifth time in five home games against FBS teams and in this particular matchup, they are just one game behind Memphis overall but are one game better in the division so a win here and next week against 2-8 Tulsa sends them to the C-USA Championship. Memphis has won two straight games to move back over .500 but it has been a disappointing season for the most part as the Tigers were expected to win the C-USA West. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game and we have two positive situations on our side. First, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are averaging between 390 to 440 ypg going up against a defense allowing between 390 to 440 ypg, after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 28-6 ATS (82.4 percent since 1992. Second, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 44-12 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (316) SMU Mustangs |
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11-15-18 | Florida Atlantic v. North Texas -3.5 | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our CFB Thursday Supreme Annihilator. North Texas has some unfinished business to tend to tonight and laying a short price should come with an easy cover. The Mean Green played Florida Atlantic twice last season, once in the regular season and the other in the C-USA Championship and lost both of those by a combined 62 points. Both of those games took place in Boca Raton however and now North Texas has a chance to avenge those games playing on its home field where it is 4-1. This is a sneaky good team that has had some tough breaks as the Mean Green have lost their three games this season by a combined 13 points despite winning the yardage battle in all three of those and overall, they have outyarded every opponent this season. Their +169 scoring differential is second best in the entire conference. Florida Atlantic has had a disappointing season by its standards as it still needs one more victory to become bowl eligible and that will likely come next week at home against Charlotte. The rebuilt offense has been inconsistent from the start and while the defense was supposed to lead the way with 10 returning starters, the Owls have regressed in a big way. All four road losses have been by double-digits and we expect that to continue tonight. 10* (314) North Texas Mean Green |
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11-15-18 | Packers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. This line opened at 2.5 and stayed there until last night but now it has climbed to 3 at most places which is what we were hoping for on the Green Bay side. Recent series history is swaying the public onto Seattle as the home team has won seven straight meetings and coupled with the Packers 0-4 record on the road, this is going to be a contrarian play. While the quarterbacks are the story here, this one could come down to the running game. Seattle leads the NFL in rushing offense with 152.2 ypg but Green Bay leads the league with 5.2 ypc so anyone that says the Seahawks have the edge there is mistaken. The total yardage number is inflated because Seattle is second in the league in rushing attempts and breaking down the offensive lines shows Green Bay with a massive edge as it is No. 4 in the Adjusted Line Yards formula with Seattle coming in at No. 15. Taking that a step further shows the Seahawks are third to last in the league in pass protection. The home field advantage for the Seahawks has declined as they are just 5-6 since the start of last season and they have been outgained in all three home games this season. Here, we play against home favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (307) Green Bay Packers |
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11-14-18 | Miami-OH +7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS for our CFB Wednesday Star Attraction. With the season wining down, games become critical for some teams whether it be for bowl implications or championship game berths and that is the case here for Wednesday. From a motivational standpoint, there is no advantage either way as Miami needs to win its final two games to become bowl eligible and Northern Illinois needs to win to take home the MAC West and secure a trip to the MAC Championship. While the Huskies possess defense, this will be one of the better offenses they have seen. While Miami averages just 28.2 ppg, that was due to a slow start as over their last seven games, the RedHawks are averaging 35.9 ppg. They have gone 4-3 over this stretch and could feasibly already be bowl eligible as two of those losses came by just one point, including one in overtime. Northern Illinois has picked up its game after a 1-3 start as it has won six straight games and while we played on the Huskies a week ago, circumstances are much different. Four of those wins were by a single possession and in those six games, the Huskies were outgained in three of those. Overall, the strength of schedule is pretty much the same for both sides and they are both nearly dead even in scoring differential making this line overinflated but the public is still overwhelmingly on the home side. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging between 3.5 to 4.3 ypc. This situation is 56-23 ATS (70.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (305) Miami Ohio RedHawks |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan -7 v. Ball State | Top | 41-42 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS for our CFB Tuesday Star Attraction. After a 4-0 start in the MAC, including three wins on the road, Western Michigan has dropped its last two games and neither of which were close as it fell by 27 and 45 points. The Broncos are now two games behind Northern Illinois in the MAC West and they can still compete in the MAC Championship if they win out as they play the Huskies next week and hope Northern Illinois loses tomorrow against Miami. Those games ended an overall six-game winning streak as well as a six-game string of winning the total yardage. In this particular matchup, the Broncos own all three yppl advantages and they have a chance to get the high-powered offenses back in gear after being stalled the last two games. Western Michigan is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games off two straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more. Ball St. lost its last game which was Halloween night and that eliminated the Cardinals from a chance at a bowl game as they fell to 3-7. They won their first game of the season against Central Connecticut St. from the FCS and the two conference wins came against 2-8 Kent St. and 1-10 Central Michigan. Ball St. is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games against teams averaging 6.25 or more yppl while going 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. Additionally, we play on road teams off a loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 on the season. This situation is 64-28 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (301) Western Michigan Broncos |
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11-11-18 | Dolphins v. Packers -10 | Top | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Game of the Week. Green Bay is coming off a brutal two-game roadtrip where it lost to the Rams and Patriots to fall to 3-4-1 on the season but it is just a game and a half back in the NFC North. This is a must win for the Packers however as they have to venture out on the road in two more tough environments after this in Seattle and Minnesota. This game sets up similar to the one against the Bills as Green Bay was coming of a bad road loss against Washington and bounced back as expected. Miami is not as bad as the Bills many will argue but the Dolphins are not far off. They have been outgained in seven of their last eight games including two wins against the Jets where they won the yardage battle by 105 and 107 yards. Turnovers have been the difference that has kept them above water. Now Miami heads to Green Bay where temperatures will be in the 20s at gametime. Brock Osweiler will be making his fifth start for the Dolphins and while he is 2-2, the offense has gotten worse moving forward especially last week where the only touchdown came on an interception return. Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while going 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after being outgained by 100 or more total yards last game. Additionally, Miami is 1-15 ATS in its last 16 games after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. 10* (262) Green Bay Packers |
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11-11-18 | Falcons v. Browns +6.5 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 48 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Cleveland has been outmatched recently as it has lost four straight games with three of those coming against the Chargers, which have won five straight, the Steelers, which have won five straight and the Chiefs, which are 8-1. Add in another game against the Steelers and one against the Saints, and it comes as no surprise that the Browns have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. The defense has not performed well over this stretch and while the offense has not been far behind, this is a good chance for a breakout game like we saw earlier in the season. We played against the Falcons last week and they were able to take care of Washington without much of a problem. The play of the offensive line was a huge part of the reason that the Falcons were able to hang 38 points on a quality Washington defense last week. They will be facing another tough test this week as Cleveland is tied for the 11th-best adjusted sack rate per Pro Football Outsiders with 22 sacks in total. As for line value, we are certainly getting it here as this line is saying that Atlanta is just two points worse than Kansas City and that is laughable. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 9* (254) Cleveland Browns |
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11-11-18 | Saints v. Bengals +6 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Saints are coming off a monster win last week against the Rams making a case from them now being the team to beat in the NFC. A big win at home like that can certainly produce a letdown and on top of that, they head home after this to face the Eagles next week and then play the Falcons four days later on Thanksgiving night. Despite a 7-1 record, New Orleans has not been dominating as it has outgained opponents just by 14.2 ypg. But that is not going to stop the public from loading up on the Saints especially with a Cincinnati team that the public thinks it is in disarray. The Bengals blew a 21-point lead against Tampa Bay and needed a last second field goal to pull out the win. They will be without A.J. Green for a couple games while the defense is on pace to break NFL records for yardage allowed so there is no way Cincinnati can keep up right. That is why they play the game and this is a big game for the Bengals as they are now a game behind the Steelers and they have a pair of divisional games on deck. The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record. Additionally, we play against road teams off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation s 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (256) Cincinnati Bengals |
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11-10-18 | Clemson v. Boston College +20 | Top | 27-7 | Push | 0 | 51 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES for our ACC Game of the Month. This is arguably the final real test for Clemson with this being the final road game of the season as the Tigers close with home games against Duke and South Carolina. Clearly Clemson is clearly one of the top team in college football and look to be peaking at the right time with four straight blowout wins but those came against some very weak defenses. While the Tigers defense has also played exceptional, they will be challenged by Boston College which possesses great balance on offense. The Eagles are led by running back AJ Dillon who leads the ACC with 128.1 rushing ypg and while he opened the week as questionable with an ankle injury, he has been upgraded to probable. Quarterback Anthony Brown is fourth in the ACC with a 141.4 passer rating so Clemson cannot load the box. On the other side, Boston College is ranked No. 24 in the nation, allowing just 4.83 yppl and has been playing its best football of late with three straight victories in which it has allowed no more than 21 points. Here, we play on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points coming off two straight wins against conference rivals, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 24-3 ATS (88.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (122) Boston College Eagles |
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11-10-18 | Oklahoma State +21 v. Oklahoma | 47-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a play on the OKLAHOMA ST. COWBOYS as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. Oklahoma comes in riding a three-game winning streak after suffering its lone loss of the season against Texas. The Sooners are on the outside looking in for the CFP and it will take some help for them to get in. They have not been very good laying the big numbers this season as they are 3-4 ATS when laying over two touchdowns. The Cowboys have lost three in a row to the Sooners, including a 62-52 game last season in which OSU entered favored by one point. This year, it is the largest point spread for the game since the Sooners were a 19.5-point favorite in 2014. That happened to be the last game Oklahoma St. has won in the series. Oklahoma St. is a win away from bowl eligibility after a disappointing loss last week against Baylor despite winning the yardage battle by 111 total yards. It will be up to the defense to try and slow down the Sooners offense and they have the pass rush to do so. That pass rush has allowed the Cowboys to have the fourth best passing defense in the Big XII. Here, we play against home teams in the second half of the season averaging 4.8 or better ypc going up against teams allowing 3.5 to 4.3 ypc, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (151) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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11-10-18 | Virginia Tech +3 v. Pittsburgh | 22-52 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. The Hokies have lost their last two games and their four losses on the season already match their losses from 2016 and 2017. Virginia Tech has now dropped its last three home games but it has won its last two on the road including an impressive one against Duke. The Coastal Division is still up for grabs and a win puts Virginia Tech into a three-way tie for first place and would win it is its wins out based on head-to-head tiebreakers. Pittsburgh has completely turned its season around with wins in three of its last four games. At 4-1 in the ACC, it can take a huge step forward toward winning the Coastal Division with a win over the Hokies. They already have the tiebreaker over Virginia, and a win over the Hokies plus one win in their final two games against Wake Forest and Miami would lock things up for the Panthers. We do not see it happening here as Virginia Tech has the schedule in its favor because it played Boston College last week which has a lot of similarities to Pittsburgh. Here, we play on teams after four or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 89-42 ATS (67.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (119) Virginia Tech Hokies |
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11-10-18 | UCLA v. Arizona State -13.5 | 28-31 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. UCLA if officially cooked but it was only a matter of time. After the loss to Oregon last week, the Bruins will not be going to the postseason for the second time in three years as they fell to 2-7. The Chip Kelly rebuild will take time and they will be back near the top for sure. UCLA ranks in the bottom third of the conference in both passing and rushing offense. It is part of the rebuilding process, but there is little evidence to suggest that UCLA will be able to move the ball against the Sun Devils. On the other side, the UCLA defense has allowed the second most points in the PAC 12 this season. Arizona St. has won its last two games to move to 5-4 and that record could be even better as all four losses came by seven points each. If the Sun Devils win out, they can play in the PAC 12 Championship game. The defense has picked it up over the last few games and the early struggles were no surprise given the new system in place. Overall, they are allowing just 379.3 ypg and UCLA simply does not have the personnel to move the ball consistently. This is the final home game for Arizona St. as well. Here, we play on home teams that are averaging between 28 and 34 ppg going up against teams allowing between 28 and 34 ppg, after scoring 37 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 41-15 ATS (73.2 percent) since 1992. 9* (222) Arizona St. Sun Devils |
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11-10-18 | BYU -14 v. UMass | Top | 35-16 | Win | 100 | 43 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the BYU COUGARS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. BYU and Massachusetts are both still alive for bowl berths but neither can make a mistake. While the Cougars can still lose one of their final three games, the season finale is at Utah so that is likely the game that goes down which makes this one extremely important. BYU has lost its last two games against Northern Illinois and Boise St. by a combined six points and it won the yardage battle in both of those. The Cougars would like some payback as well after losing to the Minutemen last season 16-10 in their home finale. Massachusetts has kept its hopes alive with two straight win and it cannot afford another loss as it needs to win its final two games. Considering the Minutemen are at Georgia week, that is not going to happen. The two recent wins were not impressive as they came against Liberty and Connecticut, two of the three worse defenses in the nation. Prior to that, the Minutemen were outgained in their other seven games against FBS competition. Massachusetts will be facing much stiffer competition here as the Cougars are allowing just 334.1 ypg on defense and only 5.1 yppl. Here, we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (127) BYU Cougars |
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11-09-18 | Fresno State v. Boise State +3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. This could very well be a preview of the MWC Championship which would be the second straight season Boise St. and Fresno St. would meet for the title. In order for that to occur, this is a must win for the Broncos as they would fall two games behind Utah St. with a loss (the Aggies play San Jose St. this week as a 31-point favorite) while Fresno St. has some wiggle room as it faces San Diego St. next week which will determine the champion. Boise St. has won four straight games and is 3-1 at home to move to 111-8 since 2000. The Broncos have not been a true home underdog since 2001 and you know they have heard that and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Fresno St. has been humming along with seven straight wins led by one of the best defenses around. The numbers speak for themselves as Fresno St. has allowed just 36 points in five conference games and it is now ranked No. 2 in the country in scoring defense (12.3 ppg), No. 2 in red zone defense (56.3 percent) and No. 2 in interceptions (15). This is skewed however as those five games came against teams that are a combined 9-18 in the conference. There is one area of concern as the offensive line is hurting with one tackle out and another tackle questionable for Friday. The Bulldogs have covered every game during their winning streak and that is playing into this line for sure. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 36-11 (76.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (114) Boise St. Broncos |
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11-08-18 | Panthers +4 v. Steelers | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Thursday Game of the Month. The Steelers have won four straight games and are going to be a very popular public play at home on Thursday. This line was hit hard by Carolina money early and has come down but it is still above the key number for a team that is arguably better at this point. This could be considered a tough spot for the Steelers as they are coming off three straight divisional games. While the popular thinking is that the Steelers are a dominant team at home, they are just 2-7 over their last nine games at Heinz Field. Carolina has won three straight and five of its last six games with the lone loss coming at Washington in a game it should have won as it outgained the Redskins but lost the turnover battle 3-0. The Panthers are ranked No. 17 in total offense but a truer indication is that they are No. 5 in offensive efficiency which is a big factor in this matchup as the Steelers are ranked No. 21 in defensive efficiency. Taking both sides into account, Carolina is No. 3 in total efficiency while Pittsburgh is No. 11 and that is a very significant differential. Carolina is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl in their previous game. The Panthers fall into a situation where we play against favorites that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up against a team allowing between 335 to 370 ypg, after outgaining their opponent by 100 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (107) Carolina Panthers |
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11-08-18 | Wake Forest v. NC State -17 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -108 | 52 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Wake Forest needs to win two of their final three games to become bowl eligible for a third straight season under head coach Dave Clawson. At this point, that seems unlikely. The Demon Deacons are 4-5 and things are not looking good after losing quarterback Sam Hartman for the season against Syracuse on Saturday. Former starter Kendall Hinton, who was moved to the slot, or Jamie Newman will get the start so the offense is going to be taking a step back. The Wolfpack are ranked No. 38 in the country in total defense, and that would be even better if NC State did not already get rolled over by the high-powered offenses of Clemson and Syracuse and Wake Forest is not in that category. While the Wolfpack are already bowl eligible, there is a greater goal as winning out would get them to 10 wins and a high profile bowl game and this would be just the second time in school history where they would have double-digits wins. The last four games are all against losing teams. NC State senior quarterback Ryan Finley enters Thursday night leading the ACC in passing yards, completion percentage and yards per attempt. He has thrown for 2,490 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions on 8.53 ypa on the season. This is not good news for the Demon Deacons as they are ranked 12th in the ACC in passing defense as they are giving up 272.6 ypg which is good for No. 115 in the nation. Not only are the Demon Deacons allowing a lot of yards, but they have also given up 20 passing touchdowns and have picked off opposing quarterbacks only three times. NC State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against passing defenses allowing 250 or more ypg while the Demon Deacons are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record. 10* (110) NC State Wolfpack |
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11-07-18 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois -3 | Top | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 30 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES for our CFB Wednesday Star Attraction. It was a 1-3 start for Northern Illinois but the Huskies have caught fire by winning their last five games and are in great shape to make it back to the MAC Championship after a two-year absence. Four of those wins have come on the road where they have played six games compared to just three at home. The offense has picked it up after a very slow start where Northern Illinois failed to reach 300 total yards in the first four games and have since averaged 362.8 ypg over their last five games. Payback will be in order as well as the Huskies have lost to Toledo the last two years after winning six straight meetings. Going back, Northern Illinois is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after outrushing its last opponent by 150 or more yards. Toledo is still in the hunt in the MAC West as a win here would put it a game back with two games left following consecutive wins but the Rockets have struggled on the road with a 1-2 record and they are getting a shorter than anticipated number. While they do possess a winning record, the Rockets have been outgained in six of eight games by FBS opponents and it has not been close as they are getting outyarded by an average of 59.5 ypg. The problem is the defense as Toledo is allowing 450.7 ypg which is No. 109 in the country. The Rockets are getting gashed through the air, giving up 279.4 ypg which is No. 118 and while the rushing defense is better, it is still not good. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win and Northern Illinois falls into a positive situation where we play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 where the line is +3 to -3 off a double digit road win, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 26-7 (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (106) Northern Illinois Huskies |
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11-05-18 | Titans +5.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Monday Night Enforcer. Both the AFC South and NFC East divisions are wide open so a win for either side would be huge. The Titans have lost three straight games but two of those could have been won as they were by a point apiece while the other was a shutout loss at home in horrendous weather. Tennessee is 1-3 away from home but those three losses have come by a combined nine points. Tennessee is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after one or more consecutive losses. The Cowboys are coming off a loss in Washington prior to its bye week and on the season, the home team is 7-0 in Dallas games which is a big reason this line is inflated. While the big news out of Dallas was the acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper, there was bigger news that nobody has talked about and that was it fired offensive line coach Paul Alexander and assistant offensive line coach Marc Colombo has been promoted to Alexander's position. The Cowboys also hired longtime NFL offensive line coach Hudson Houck as an advisor. this is not a good thing midway through the season. This offensive line has been pretty much below average all season and while Ezekiel Elliott is having a fine season, Dak Prescott has been sacked 23 times which is tied for 13th most in the league but that is through just seven games. The Cowboys 10.04 percent sack rate is fourth worst in the NFL. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This situation is 58-26 ATS (69 percent) since 1983. 10* (473) Tennessee Titans |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints +2.5 | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Sunday Rams/Saints Blockbuster. The game of the day takes place in New Orleans as the 6-1 Saints host the 8-0 Rams with the winner taking charge of first place in the NFC. Both teams are playing at a peak level but we give a solid edge to New Orleans playing at home following two quality road victories over Baltimore and Minnesota following its bye week. This marks the first home game in a month and the Saints have typically stepped up in these spots as they are 24-5 ATS in their last 29 home games against team with a winning road record. Based on power rankings, the Rams are one-point better on a neutral field which makes this line off as much as five points. Los Angeles is clearly the top team in the league right now but it has proved to be beating after starting the season with three straight blowout wins. The Rams played three straight road games and then had a tough games with the Packers last week so they are in a vulnerable spot. They are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite while going 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg. 9* (470) New Orleans Saints |
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11-04-18 | Bucs +6.5 v. Panthers | 28-42 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Carolina is coming off a big win last week as it defeated Baltimore as a home underdog to keep pace with New Orleans in the NFC South. The Panthers improved to 4-0 at home but they are overpriced as most of their wins could have gone either way. The offense has been efficient but the defense is vastly overrated as the Panthers are ranked No. 17 in defensive efficiency. Carolina is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after two straight games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Tampa Bay is just 3-4 but it has played the third toughest schedule in the NFL and the Buccaneers are 2-1 against teams ranked within the top ten. Three of the four losses have come by a combined 11 points and the fact Ryan Fitzpatrick is start is a good thing. Tampa Bay is 12-3 ATS in its 15 road games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. Additionally, the Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against team with a winning record while the Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) since 1983. 9* (457) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens -2 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our AFC Game of the Year. Baltimore has bottomed out after a 3-1 start as it has lost three of its last four games to move to 4-4 and trails Pittsburgh by a game and a half in the AFC North. Three of the losses have come by a combined five points so the Ravens are better than the record shows and their poor game last week against the Panthers can be attributed to a possible lookahead to this week. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS under John Harbaugh after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game. The Steelers are trending the other way as they have won three straight after a 1-2-1 start. These recent runs on both sides are keeping this number lower than it should be as lines under three are available across the industry. Pittsburgh is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 road games after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. Additionally, the Steelers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win while the Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in four or five out of their last six games. This situation is 356-253 ATS (58.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (456) Baltimore Ravens |
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11-04-18 | Falcons v. Redskins -1 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Falcons are coming off a much needed bye week but this team is still a mess defensively. Injuries have played a big role and on the season, Atlanta is ranked second to last in the NFL in defensive efficiency and it is one of only three teams allowing 30 or more ppg on the season. While the Falcons have won two straight games, they were outgained in both of those and they have had the luxury of playing five of their last six games at home. Atlanta is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. The Redskins are in first place in the NFC East by a game and a half over the Eagles and two games over the Cowboys. Unlike Atlanta, the defense is leading the way as Washington is ranked No. 5 in scoring defense and has allowed 17 points or less in four of its last five games. Washington is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Here, we play on home favorites that are outrushing opponents by 40 or more ypg going up against a team that is +/- 30 in rushing ypg differential, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 103-57 AT (64.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (462) Washington Redskins |
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11-04-18 | Utah State v. Hawaii +20 | Top | 56-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS for our MWC Game of the Year. Hawaii opened the season 6-1 but has since lost its last three games and none of those were close. This is still a very solid team that was not supposed to do much this season but the defense was a big letdown to end October. The offense is still sizzling as sophomore quarterback Cole McDonald has arcade-game-like stats with 2,832 yards, 62.4 percent completion percentage, 30 passing touchdowns and just four interceptions. The offense was on a roll until quarterback McDonald was injured and missed the 17-13 home victory over Wyoming on Oct. 6. He returned the following week against BYU, but the Warriors have struggled a bit offensively ever since but opposing defenses have had something to do with that. Despite the six wins, the Warriors do need one more victory to become bowl eligible since their schedule consists of 13 games. The Aggies possess a potent offense as well as they were held to 24 points in a win over Wyoming and 31 points in a loss against Michigan St. but they have scored at least 42 points in each of their other six games. Most of that scoring output has come at home however as both of the aforementioned games came on the road. Here, we play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage of .800 or better that are coming off three straight wins against conference rivals, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (424) Hawaii Warriors |
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11-03-18 | California +10 v. Washington State | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 33 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS for our CFB Saturday Late Night TV Winner. Washington St. narrowly escaped last week as it won by three points at Stanford on a 42-yard field goal with just 19 seconds remaining. It was the fourth straight win for the Cougars after suffering its lone loss against USC and it sits in the No. 8 spot in the first edition of the CFP Rankings. They have dominated along the way as Washington St. has outgained all eight opponents and it has covered every game along the way, the only unblemished cover team in the country. California is 5-3 following an upset win over Washington last week and a win here puts the Golden Bears just a game out of first place in the PAC 12 North. After four years of defensive ineptness under former coach Sonny Dykes, Cal is playing defense again. The Bears are allowing only 22.3 ppg and 312 ypg and rank among the top 10 in the nation in fewest passing yards allowed, interceptions and defensive touchdowns. They will be challenged by quarterback Gardner Minshew who leads the nation in passing yards with 3,183 yards. Over 300 yards separate him from second place and he is the only quarterback in the country with over 3,000 yards passing. California is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers. Here, we play on road teams after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game. This situation is 61-25 ATS (70.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (373) California Golden Bears |
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11-03-18 | Alabama v. LSU +14.5 | 29-0 | Loss | -107 | 31 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our CFB Saturday SEC Blockbuster. Some people are calling this the best Alabama team in the history of the program and even one of the greatest teams of all time. Well, while the Crimson Tide have destroyed everyone in their path, that path has been littered with terrible teams and they have faced only one team ranked in the top 30 which was Texas A&M and the Aggies hung around for a while in that game. The Tigers are a double-digit underdog at home for the first time since 2007 and have not been this big of a home underdog since 1997 when it was getting 16.5 points against No. 1 Florida and won the game outright. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 25 touchdown passes without an interception this season and will match up with a defense that has swiped a nation-leading 14 passes. LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda will bring pressure time and time again versus Alabama because in every game this year that Tagovailoa has not been pressured he has handily beaten every defense he has faced. LSU has won 57 of its last 64 home games and only one of those seven losses came by more than what they are getting here which was back in 2015 against Arkansas. LSU is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games against teams averaging 8.0 or more passing ypa and here, we play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that are outgaining their opponents by 125 or more ypg, after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (420) LSU Tigers |
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11-03-18 | West Virginia +2 v. Texas | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a play on the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS four our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. West Virginia has had a great season thus far as it is 6-1 with the lone loss inexplicably coming at Iowa St. by 16 points where it was outgained by a whopping 346 total yards. That was the lone game the Mountaineers have been outgained in so they are not only winning but winning in the way they should be and not getting lucky considering all six wins have come by at least 16 points. This will be their biggest test of the season but they should have no issues keeping their offense moving. West Virginia is ranked No. 15 in total offense and No. 16 in scoring offense and squares off against a Texas team ranked 51st in the nation in total defense. Texas had won six straight games prior to last week where it went to Stillwater and lost to Oklahoma St. It was the fourth time in eight games that the Longhorns have been outgained so the record is a little skewed. Texas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after five consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers while the Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Additionally, we play on road underdogs averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 390 to 440 ypg, after outgaining opponent by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (351) West Virginia Mountaineers |
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11-03-18 | Georgia Southern v. UL-Monroe +7.5 | 25-44 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a play on the UL-MONROE WARHAWKS for our CFB Saturday Anti Public Burial. Two teams tied for first place in their respective divisions meet on Saturday although one of them may be getting a little too much credit. Georgia Southern goes from an 11-point home underdog to a 7.5-point road favorite which is an enormous gap in a span of just one game and it is too much of an adjustment in this case. The Panthers have won five straight games, including that monumental win last week against rival Appalachian St., but they have been far from dominant as they lost the yardage battle twice, and in the three games they did win the stats, the most came by just 68 total yards. They control their fate in the Sun Belt Conference East Division and next week, they square off against 4-0 making this game a truly tough spot sandwiched around big opponents. UL-Monroe opened the season with a pair of wins but went on to lose four straight games but two of those were against SEC teams and another against Troy so it was a tough run. the Warhawks have won their last two games and they are still in position to win the West Division as they are tied for first place and winning out means a trip to the championship game. UL-Monroe was picked to finish at or near the top of the division so it should come as no surprise it is in the hunt. The Warhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game while going 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 9* (378) UL-Monroe Warhawks |
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11-03-18 | Memphis v. East Carolina +13 | Top | 59-41 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Underdog Game of the Month. The Pirates have lost three straight and are 0-4 in the AAC but the four games have been against the top four teams. East Carolina has outgained all but one opponent this season so it has been playing better than its record indicates which makes this an inflated line based on name and record. The Pirates outgained the two best teams in the AAC Houston and Central Florida, which are a combined 15-1 and 9-0 in the conference but lost those games by 22 and 27 points respectively. The problem was that they lost the turnover battle 4-0 and 5-0 and there is no chance of winning when that happens. East Carolina is worst in the country in turnover margin but it has given it up only 15 times with nine of those coming in the last two games. Memphis was expected to do some damage but it is just 4-4 including a 1-3 record in the conference. The Tigers offense remains explosive but the defense has been all over the place and the Pirates actually possess the better stop unit in this matchup. Memphis is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 325 or more passing yards in its last game. Here, we play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against a team allowing between 330 to 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 40-13 (75.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (344) East Carolina Pirates |
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11-02-18 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Virginia | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PANTHERS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. The winner of this game will be in prime position for the ACC Coastal Division and a place in the ACC Championship Game. Virginia has won three games in a row and is ranked for the first time since 2011 so there is certainly some pressure to keep it going. The Cavaliers have not been overly dominating however as they are just +36 total net yards in those three victories. The defense has led the way this season as Virginia is ranked No. 21 overall and No. 20 against the run, allowing 113 ypg. That is a bit skewed based on the number of plays as the Cavalier are ranked just No. 50 in yppl allowed and No. 51 in ypc allowed. Against Duke, the Panthers literally ran to victory, amassing 484 yards on the ground. The rushing total marked their highest since the Tony Dorsett era when it had a record 530 vs. Army in 1975. The Panthers got a huge lift against Duke from V'Lique Carter, a freshman who started the season as a defensive back. In his college debut, he carried the ball seven times for 137 yards and touchdown runs of 31 and 16 yards. Pittsburgh has yet to win consecutive games this season as it is 0-3 following a win but the last two wins prior to last week were followed by close losses as the Panthers fell to North Carolina by three points and Notre Dame by five points, both of those coming on the road. The Panthers are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and they fall into a great situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 5.6 to 6.2 yppl going up against a team allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl, after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 30-4 ATS (88.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (315) Pittsburgh Panthers |
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11-01-18 | Raiders v. 49ers -2.5 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. While there have been some solid Thursday matchups through the first half of the season, this is not one of those but we can take advantage of a soft line where San Francisco has significant advantages. The 49ers have lost six straight games but four of those came against quality opponents and while the other two were against Arizona, last week was just by three points and the other came despite winning the yardage battle by 227 total yards. The big issue for the 49ers is at quarterback as C.J. Beathard is questionable with a wrist injury which means Nick Mullens could be making his maiden NFL start but whoever starts, it should not matter. Headed into Week Nine, the San Francisco offense ranks 22nd in the NFL, and while that number does not really strike fear into the opponent, what the group can do on the ground should. The 49ers are led by running back Matt Breida who has 487 rushing yards and two touchdowns along with a 5.8 ypc average and overall, they are ranked sixth in rushing offense with 133.6 ypg. The Raiders defense is ranked deal last against the rush and it does not stop there as they have given up seven passing plays more than 40 yards, tied for the fourth-most in the league. This is partly due to amassing only seven sacks, fewest in the league. The 49ers fall into a phenomenal rushing situation as we play against road teams averaging between 70-95 rushing ypg going up against a team allowing between 95-125 rushing ypg, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in two straight games. This situation is 46-17 ATS (73 percent) since 1983 including a perfect 10-0 ATS the last five years. 10* (308) San Francisco 49ers |
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11-01-18 | Temple +11 v. Central Florida | Top | 40-52 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEMPLE OWLS for our AAC Game of the Month. Temple is peaking at the right time as after a 0-2 start, the Owls are 5-1 over their last six games including a 4-0 record in the AAC and first place in the East Division is on the line tonight. The Owls offensive line has been playing at an extremely high level during the recent six-game stretch. Led by redshirt sophomore center Matt Hennessy, who has yet to allow a quarterback pressure, the line has surrendered just eight sacks this season. The defense has been more impressive as the Owls are second in the nation with 45 three-and-outs forced. Overall, they are allowing just 4.2 yppl and 330.5 ypg, which has them fourth and second in the conference respectively. Temple has allowed 2.68 percent of plays against them to go for 20-plus yards, which is first in the country. With 20 consecutive victories, the Knights have the longest active winning streak in the country as you have to go all the way back to the 2016 Cure Bowl to find their most recent loss. Central Florida is just one of four undefeated teams among all FBS schools and it is up to Temple to end that string. Quarterback McKenzie Milton is going to be a gametime decision after missing the last game with an ankle injury but we are expecting him to go in this crucial game for both sides and the line is saying the same thing. Temple is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg while going 15-3 ATS two or more consecutive wins against the spread. Additionally, we play on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after having won four out of their last five games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (313) Temple Owls |
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10-31-18 | Ball State v. Toledo -18.5 | Top | 13-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the TOLEDO ROCKETS for our CFB Halloween MAC Bloodbath. This is not the typical Toledo team we are accustomed to as the Rockets are 4-4 including a 2-2 record in the MAC but last week could have provided a second half jumpstart. They rolled over Western Michigan to hand the Broncos their first conference loss to remain two games behind Northern Illinois. Toledo quarterback Mitchell Guadagni is questionable for tonight but that is not a concern as after he left last week against Western Michigan, Eli Peters did not miss a beat. Peters kicked the offense into overdrive in the third quarter, driving the Rockets to three quick touchdowns to open up a 44-17 lead that proved too big a hole for the Broncos to climb out of. Ball St. has lost two straight games following a 52-14 blowout at Ohio last week and now the Cardinals are forced to win out to become bowl eligible. The loss against the Bobcats was even more painful as they lost quarterback Riley Neal to a knee injury and he is not going to play tonight. Sophomore Drew Plitt takes over and he has been pretty ineffective in four games this season as well as three starts last year. One of those starts came against Toledo last season and he went 15-34 and just 97 yards passing. Toledo is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 home games after a win by 17 or more points while Ball St. is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. 10* (306) Toledo Rockets |
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10-30-18 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -7 | Top | 42-51 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the BUFFALO BULLS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. The Bulls sit atop the MAC East standings and have their best record through eight games since 1959. Buffalo has won 10 of its last 11 games dating back to last season, with its lone loss coming against Army on September 29. They have a chance to pull away in the division as it will be two games with a win tonight and could be two games over Ohio should the Bobcats fall at Western Michigan on Thursday. The key advantage for the Bulls this week is the run game. With freshman Jaret Patterson and redshirt freshman Kevin Marks having great debut seasons, they have a chance to exploit the RedHawks biggest weakness on defense. Making matters worse for Miami, they are totally banged up as four of their starting five defensive backs are questionable as is a starting defensive lineman and linebacker. Quarterback Tyree Jackson can take advantage of that secondary and he keeps the defense off-balanced because of his running ability. Miami has a potent offense as it has put up 30 or more points in each of its last five games and all of those have resulted in covers. This will be a challenge however as defensively, Buffalo limits opposing teams to 21.1 ppg which leads the MAC and it is also leading the conference in total defense. Buffalo 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against conference opponents while going 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after one or more consecutive straight up wins. While the RedHawks have covered five straight games, they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. 10* (302) Buffalo Bulls |
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10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills +14.5 | Top | 25-6 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Monday Night Enforcer. There is only one way to play this game as it is rare to get a home underdog at this number, especially in a divisional game but it is the Patriots and despite the pointspread, the public is all over them. New England has received 71 percent of the bets at offshore books which is tied for the most one-sided action in Week Eight with the Bengals and unfortunately, we all saw how that turned out. Over the last 10 years, there have been just 17 double-digit divisional home underdogs and those games have resulted with the home team taking the money in 13 of those games. This includes a 4-1 ATS mark on Monday nights with one of those wins coming last season as the Patriots were in a pretty similar spot as they were riding an eight-game winning streak and rolled into Miami as a double-digit favorite only to lose outright by a touchdown. The other two wins were the Rams in 2013 in a five-point loss to Seattle as 13-point underdogs and the Raiders in a four-point loss to San Diego as 10.5-point underdogs. New England has won four straight games after a 1-2 start and the offense has been on a roll, scoring 38 points three times and 43 points the other. Buffalo is down to its third quarterback this week as Derek Anderson will be making his second start but this will be his first one at home and his first one with more than three days to prepare so he should be better off than he was last week. In addition to the divisional home underdog situation, Buffalo falls into another where we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points after a loss by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (276) Buffalo Bills |
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10-28-18 | Packers +9.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFC Game of the Year. Green Bay heads west following its bye week as it prepares to take on the meat of its schedule. The Packers, namely Aaron Rodgers, will be playing the respect card on Sunday as this line is out of control even if it is against the best team in the NFL at this point. Rodgers has never been an underdog by this many points and in his career, he has been an underdog of six or more points four times and he is a perfect 4-0 ATS. He has a healthy receiving corps this week Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb were back practicing after missing the last game while Davante Adams should be back to 10 percent. Green Bay has gone 10-4-1 ATS when coming off a bye under head coach Mike McCarthy. The Rams are coming off their seventh straight win to open the season including the last three all coming on the road. They snapped a three-game ATS skid with the rout over the 49ers last week, the same 49ers team that nearly pulled off the upset two weeks ago in Green Bay and that is playing into this line. The Los Angeles offense is humming but the defense will again have its hands full on the interior where Rodgers could have a field day in the middle of the field. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a completion percentage of 60 percent or better, after gaining 7.0 or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 36-15 ATS (70.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (271) Green Bay Packers |
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10-28-18 | Colts v. Raiders +3 | 42-28 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Raiders are making headlines for all the wrong reasons, namely that David Carr has lost the locker room, but many players have stepped out this week to quell those rumors and if there is a time a team comes together, this is it. The Raiders are 1-5 on the season and coming off a bye week so they do have a huge advantage from that standpoint as it was a perfect time to regroup. The schedule has not been in their favor as four of the first six games have come away from home and one of the two home games came against the 7-0 Rams. The Raiders are 5-1 ATS when coming off a bye week since the start of the 2012 season. The Colts picked up their second win of the season last week against the Bills which snapped a four-game slide but they hit the road once again where they have dropped three in a row. Indianapolis looked great on offense last week but going back, the Colts are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The defense was bailed out last week as they faced the Bills and Derek Anderson but the defense is still ranked No. 21 overall and No. 24 in points allowed. Here, we play on team after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games going up against an opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (268) Oakland Raiders |
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10-28-18 | Bucs v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Bengals look to right the ship after suffering a pair of one-sided losses in their last two games. The lost to Pittsburgh by a touchdown but they were outgained by 206 yards and last week, they were torched by Kansas City by 35 points while getting outgained by 312 yards. A 4-1 start has been negated the last two weeks and this is a big game to get to 5-3 instead of 4-4 heading into their bye week. The Bengals can refocus on beating a handful of mediocre teams in the next month to rebuild their confidence especially on the defense where Cincinnati is on pace to allow 440 points, the most in 30 years. Tampa Bay is coming off an overtime win over Cleveland last week to improve to 3-3 and it hits the road where the defense has been atrocious as it has allowed an average of more than 40 ppg over the teams three 2018 road games. And they are banged up as the Buccaneers will be without two starting defensive linemen, tackle Gerald McCoy and end Vinny Curry, for a second straight game. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. This situation is 37-14 ATS (72.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (264) Cincinnati Bengals |
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10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars +3.5 | 24-18 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a paly on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Sunday Early Start From London. Both Philadelphia and Jacksonville are mired in some poor runs right now as the Eagles have lost three of their last four games while the Jaguars have dropped three straight games. While neither come into London with positive momentum, it is Philadelphia that is worse off at this point after blowing a 17-0 fourth quarter lead last week at home against Carolina. The Super Bowl hangover has hit the Eagles harder than expected yet they continue to be overpriced. The Jaguars are playing in London for the sixth time and that is a big advantage as they are now accustomed to this lengthy trip and know how to prepare for it. They have won their last three trips here including a blowout win over Baltimore last season. The defense will have to step up with their banged up secondary but it is the offense that really needs to get going and Blake Bortles got his wake up call last week after getting benched against the Texans. Here, we play on teams after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons including going 15-3 ATS since the start of 2014. Additionally, Jacksonville has covered four of its last five games coming off a double-digit loss at home. 9* (252) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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10-27-18 | Washington State v. Stanford -2.5 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -114 | 30 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the STANFORD CARDINAL for our PAC 12 Game of the Year. Washington St. is coming off a win over Oregon to move to 3-1 in the Pac 12 North and remain a half-game behind Washington for first place. The Cougars have been humming as they have outgained all seven opponents including their game against USC, which was their only loss. Additionally, they are a perfect 7-0 against the number which is keeping this number down. Stanford has been up and down and after back-to-back blowout losses, the Cardinals bounced back with a big road win at Arizona St. last week to also move to 3-1 in the conference making the winner of this game still in the Pac 12 Championship hunt. Stanford will be out for double-revenge after getting blown out here by 26 points two years ago and getting outgained 430-198 last season in Pullman. Stanford is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games against teams averaging 5.9 or more yppl. Meanwhile, Washington St. is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games off two consecutive double-digit conference wins while going 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road road games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game. 10* (162) Stanford Cardinal |
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10-27-18 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -1.5 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. We lost with Mississippi St. last week and it did not play as bad as the final score shows. the Bulldogs outgained the Tigers by 21 yards but quarterback Nick Fitzgerald had an awful game as he was 8-24 for 59 yards and he threw four interceptions. After they allowed an opening touchdown, the Bulldogs defense tightened up as they allowed just four field goals the rest of the way. They are facing a strong offense but overall, they are allowing just 282.4 ypg while allowing only 4.4 yppl. The Aggies have won three straight games and to their credit, their only two losses have come against Clemson and Alabama so Jimbo Fisher has come in and done a great job. Texas A&M has outgained six of seven opponents and this is another game with a low line based on the Aggies spread success as they are 6-1 against the number. The Bulldogs can keep their defensive momentum and going back, they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is 11-24 ATS in its last 35 games against teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing ypc. 10* (174) Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
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10-27-18 | Kentucky v. Missouri -7 | 15-14 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. Kentucky became bowl eligible last week with its 14-7 win over Vanderbilt as it moved to 6-1 on the season. The Wildcats improved to 4-1 in the SEC East and have moved to No. 12 in the AP Poll, their highest ranking since 2007. This is just the third road game for Kentucky and while it lost the last one in overtime, the Wildcats were dominated by Texas A&M as it was outgained by 212 total yards and did not cross midfield once the entire games as the two touchdowns were on a fumble return and a 54-yard pass. Missouri rolled over Memphis last week to snap a three-game losing streak but two of those were against Alabama and Georgia and the other came against South Carolina despite outgaining the Gamecocks by 113 total yards. The Tigers should able to exploit the struggling secondary for Kentucky by taking big shots downfield from quarterback Drew Lock who has been outstanding this season. Kentucky is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after having won five or six out of its last seven games while Missouri is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread. 9* (176) Missouri Tigers |
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10-27-18 | South Florida v. Houston -7.5 | 36-57 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. Houston has won four straight games to move to 6-1 on the season and it sits alone in first place in the AAC West at 3-0. The Cougars are pretty much guaranteed a spot in the AAC Championship as the two contenders coming in are both sitting at 1-3 in the conference. They have been blowing through the opposition as all of their six wins have been by 13 or more points but the same cannot be said for South Florida which is 7-0 but it has been involved in some close games as the last four have been decided by one possession. And those have come against some horrible teams, none of which have more than two victories. Overall, the Bulls schedule is ranked No. 124 and while Houston is about the same, the Cougars have been blowing teams out. Houston is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off a road win and it falls into a great situation where we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against a defense allowing between 390 and 440 ypg after 7 or more games, after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (184) Houston Cougars |
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10-27-18 | Iowa +6 v. Penn State | 24-30 | Push | 0 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. Penn St. snapped a two-game slide with a win at Indiana despite getting outgained by 137 yards but took advantage of three Hoosiers turnovers. The Nittany Lions have lost twice at home and were taken to overtime by Appalachian St. as their only complete game at home was against lowly Kent St. Iowa has won and dominated its last three games and come in with great form. The Hawkeyes have easily outpaced Penn St. on the offensive line despite the ability of Trace McSorley to use his legs to avoid the rush, as Iowa has surrendered only six sacks this season compared to 13 for Penn St. Iowa has allowed just two teams to gain 100 rushing yards this season and the Hawkeyes last three opponents have combined for just 221 yards and less than three ypc. Iowa prides itself on limiting the big plays, as its defense is among the best in the country, especially against the run, and its offense can move the ball on the ground and through the air, as it relies on veteran quarterback Nate Stanley. Here, we play on road teams averaging 3.5 to 4.3 ypc against a team allowing 3.5 to 4.3 ypc, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game. This situation is 91-49 ATS (65 percent) since 1992. 9* (185) Iowa Hawkeyes |
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10-27-18 | Purdue v. Michigan State -1 | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 18 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Purdue pulled off the big upset last week as it defeated Ohio St. at home by 29 points as a 12.5-point underdog. The Boilermakers were outgained by Ohio St. but it was an inspired effort in front of their home crowd in a rare night game on national television. This is a big letdown spot as this was their biggest win since they beat the No. 7 Buckeyes since 2009. Michigan St. lost by 14 points at home against rival Michigan and it was not even that close as the Spartans were outgained by 301 total yards. The offense could do nothing as they managed just 94 total yards so we are expected to see a big effort this week to get back on track. The Purdue defense is allowing 433.1 ypg so the Spartans will be able to move the ball and while they have failed to cover the last four meetings in this series, all of those lines were over 20 points and these teams have not closed the gap that much. Purdue is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games after gaining 375 or more passing yards in its last game and it falls into a negative situation where we play against road teams coming off a win as a home underdog of seven points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (188) Michigan St. Spartans |
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10-26-18 | Miami-FL v. Boston College +3.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES for our ACC Game of the Month. Miami and Boston College come into Friday with identical 5-2 records including 2-1 marks in the ACC so this is a pivotal game for both sides. This is a strength on strength matchup and one that Boston College should have the edge at home. The Eagles are ranked 35th in the nation in total offense, making Boston College the most potent offense Miami has faced this year. It is ranked No. 21 in rushing offense, again, making the Eagles the top-ranked team the Hurricanes have faced that features four players averaging at least 4.9 ypc. One of those returns to the field as the Eagles get running back AJ Dillon back after he missed the last two games with an ankle injury. He leads the team with 652 yards rushing on 6.2 ypc after gaining 1,589 yards on 5.3 ypc last season as a freshman. While the Miami rushing defense is stout, ranked No. 12 in the nation, the Boston College offensive line will pose a big challenge. The Hurricanes are once again making a change at quarterback as Malik Rosier will get the start. This is not a good sing for Miami as Rosier started the first three games of the season and has completed 52 percent of his passes for 781 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions. He was replaced by N'Kosi Perry who started the next four games but was pulled in the last game against Virginia after going 3-6 with a pair of picks. Boston College is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread while Miami is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 games coming off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite. Additionally, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points coming off a road loss, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (116) Boston College Eagles |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans -7 | Top | 23-42 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Here we have two teams heading in opposite directions as Houston, after a 0-3 start, has won four straight games to take over the lead in the AFC South while the Dolphins have dropped three of their last four games after a 2-0 start. This is a number larger than we normally prefer to lay but it has not gone south of a touchdown so there is no value loss and laying over a touchdown is validated in this situation. The Texans are where they were expected to be before the season started and even that 0-3 start is not that bad on paper as one loss came at New England by a touchdown while the other two losses were against the Titans and Giants by a combined eight points and they won the yardage battle in both games by a combined 202 total yards. Houston is ranked No. 14 in total defense but it is ranked No. 5 in the more important defensive efficiency category according to Football Outsiders and it has picked it up over the last three games, allowing just 12 ppg. The Texans have not been dominant at home as they have failed to cover their last five games at NRG Stadium, but they welcome the perfect opponent. Miami is a mess right now as not only is it without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, two of the top three receivers were lost last week as Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills, who are tied for the lead in touchdowns with four apiece, both suffered injuries. Brock Osweiler has not looked bad over the last two games but he will be making his first road start and any talk of the revenge narrative because of Houston trading him can be tossed out the window. Going back, Miami is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games following a loss, losing those games by an average of 15.6 ppg. 10* (104) Houston Texans |
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10-25-18 | Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern +10.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the GEORGIA SOUTHERN PANTHERS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. Appalachian St. is ranked for the first time ever as it crept into the No. 25 spot in the AP Poll but now comes the first real test in a while. It has been an impressive season for the Mountaineers whose only loss came in their season opener against Penn St. in overtime but they are overpriced in this spot by laying doubles on the road. This is a very potent offense that averages 476 ypg and 44.8 ppg but they will be facing their biggest test since opening 3-0 in the Sun Belt Conference. They did suffer a big hit two weeks ago when leading rusher Jalin Moore suffered a dislocated ankle and was lost for the season. While there are capable backups, his 2,839 rushing yards over the last two and a half seasons will be missed here. The Eagles may not be ranked, but their list of victims includes Sun Belt West favorite Arkansas St., and their only loss is to No. 2 Clemson by a 38-7 score. In his first full year at the helm, Chad Lunsford has the Eagles off to their hottest start in recent history, which is even more impressive considering Georgia Southern went 2-10 last season. The Eagles are averaging 276.6 ypg rushing with quarterback Shai Werts leading the team with 542 yards. Running back Wesley Fields has rushed for 472 but is coming off a groin injury that kept him out of last week's 48-31 win over New Mexico St. The good news is that he is listed as probable this week. On the other side. the Georgia Southern defense this season is allowing 15.6 ppg to Sun Belt Conference opponents, and the unit currently sits at No. 24 in the country in scoring defense with 19.3ppg. there is plenty of motivation for the home team as Georgia Southern has not beaten their arch rival since 2014 and has lost six of the last seven to the Mountaineers. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 59-23 ATS (72 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (110) Georgia Southern Eagles |
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10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Monday Night Game of the Month. The Giants have had extra time to prepare for this Monday night game as they played last Thursday and were hammered by the Eagles by 21 points. That extra time means little as New York is going nowhere fast and has been stuck in neutral all season. It is three games behind the Redskins in the NFC East and this could very well be the last stand for Eli Manning, who is putting up decent numbers but they are not translating into wins. The Giants need to give Manning time to throw, and he might have it against Atlanta, which has not had much of a pass rush this season. Only four teams have fewer than the 10 sacks the Falcons have recorded this season. But New York can help add to that number as the Giants continue to make changes along what has been a porous offensive line for the past two seasons, benching disappointing right guard Patrick Omameh, in favor of backup interior lineman Spencer Pulley. While the Falcons sack numbers are low, the Giants have just seven and that is tied with the Raiders for fewest in the league. New York is ranked No. 27 in defensive efficiency and faces a potent offense where Matt Ryan has been on fire of late, throwing for 1,433 yards, 12 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last four games. This can be considered a must win for Atlanta heading into its bye week as a couple of late blown leads could come back to haunt them, but the Falcons are a couple plays from being 4-2 or even 5-1. And they have won two of three inside the NFC South, so they still control their own destiny. The Falcons have played a relatively tough schedule as they have faced only one team ranked outside the top 16 and that resulted in a win over Tampa Bay last week. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (476) Atlanta Falcons |
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10-21-18 | Cowboys v. Redskins | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. If there was any question that the Dallas offense was struggling, last week should have answered that. Or at least many will think that but that is not the case as one week does not make a cure but that is what the public saw and now the line reflects that. The Cowboys improved to 3-3 with the victory but the venue has played a big part as they are 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. Dallas is 7-23 ATS in its last 30 road games after allowing nine points or less last game. Washington is coming off an impressive win over Carolina although it was outgained and took advantage of three Panthers turnovers. The defense is no joke as the Redskins are ranked No. 5 overall and No. 8 in scoring defense and this is with that New Orleans debacle from a couple weeks ago. They should be out for some payback as Dallas has won the last four meetings in this series that has always been notoriously close. Going back, the Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (472) Washington Redskins |
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10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Saints come in red hot having won four straight games following a season opening loss against Tampa Bay but they caught a momentum killer with a bye last week. The New Orleans offense is firing on all cylinders right now but it has yet to face a defense this strong, especially on the road where it has faced scoring defenses ranked No. 31 and No. 24. New Orleans is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. The Ravens are coming off a 21-0 shutout over Tennessee in sloppy conditions but even with that, this is a very strong defense. Baltimore is ranked No. in the NFL in both total defense and scoring defense as it has held all but one opponent to 14 or fewer points. The offense is not too shabby either as the Ravens are No. 9 in total offense and No. 12 in scoring offense and they face off against a Saints defense that is in the bottom third in both categories. The Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (470) Baltimore Ravens |
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10-21-18 | Bills v. Colts -7 | 5-37 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. While the Colts may be 1-5 on the season, they are arguably the best team in the league with a losing record. They have lost four straight and while the defeat to the Eagles was not as good as the final score indicates, they have outgained each of the last three opponents and overall, they have won the yardage battle in four of their five losses. Obviously winning is the main focal point but Indianapolis is close and it welcomes the perfect opponent to get back on track and this is the start of a stretch of 10 straight games to end the season that are all winnable as none are against teams with a solid shot to make the playoffs. Only two games back, this division is sill wide open. Buffalo had a chance to pull off another upset but quarterback Josh Allen got hurt against Houston and the rest is history. The Bills are averaging just 12.7 ppg this season, and will now turn to veteran quarterback Derek Anderson, who will be replacing Allen and with just a few days with the players and playbook, this could easily get ugly. Buffalo is getting outgained by 89.2 ypg which is not horrible for such a bad offense but the defense has overachieved and Andrew Luck can pick them apart. 9* (462) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears +3 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. After taking the league by storm through the first six weeks, the Bears put up a dud against Miami last week as they led 21-10 but the defense fell apart late and they eventually lost in overtime. While there is speculation that the defense may not be as good as advertised, it actually is and Chicago wilted in the 90 degree Miami heat so not much can be done about that. The Bears has won three straight prior to that and since it came against weak opposition, not many will be giving them a chance here. New England is coming off a massive win over Kansas City last Sunday night, which was its third straight win and all of those came at home where they are 4-0. Conversely, they are 0-2 on the road and have been outgained by 383 yards in those games. The Patriots offense is clicking for sure but the three defenses they faced at home were nothing special and the Bears still possess a top ten defense despite the second half debacle last week. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems coming off an upset loss as a road favorite, with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. this situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 9* (454) Chicago Bears |
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10-20-18 | Ohio State v. Purdue +12.5 | Top | 20-49 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. This is one of the biggest games for Purdue in recent memory as it has been a while since the Boilermakers have been featured on a nationally televised nighttime game. They opened the season with three straight losses but those came by a total of eight points so instead of sitting at 3-3, Purdue could very well be 6-0 at this point. The offense is rolling along with the passing game leading the way but they also possess a pair of backs that is going to present matchup problems for Ohio St. With the Buckeyes struggling in pass defense, they will also have to deal with two very talented runners in the backfield. Purdue has 24 plays of 30 or more yards and Ohio St. is No. 106 in the country in allowing plays of 40 or more yards. Ohio St. is 7-0 but it has struggled in its two road games as TCU kept it close most of the game and it narrowly escaped Penn St. The Buckeyes also feature a strong passing attack but the Boilermakers defensive backs have only allowed two passing touchdowns so far this season. Purdue falls into a contrarian situation where we play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that are outgaining their opponents by 125 or more ypg, after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 47-17 ATS (73.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (334) Purdue Boilermakers |
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10-20-18 | Mississippi State +7 v. LSU | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -129 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Underdog. We won with LSU last week as it upset Georgia and it remains home on upset alert. The Tigers lost the previous week against Florida for its first defeat of the season and they have to avoid a letdown here. The public is all over LSU this week after that big upset as they are seeing a line that is considered shorter than it should be. For LSU, the Tigers will look to establish a balanced attack against the Bulldogs, much like they did against Georgia, finishing with 275 rushing yards and 200 passing yards but it will not be easy. The Bulldogs are also coming off an upset of their own as they defeated Auburn at home by 14 points as underdogs but the big difference is that they are coming off a bye week so there is no chance of a letdown. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald and running back Kylin Hill stole the show, rushing for 195 yards and 126 yards, respectively and the Tigers linebackers and secondary will be tested by Fitzgerald's ability to turn busted plays into first downs. Here, we play on road underdogs that are averaging 230 or more rushing ypg going up against a team averaging between 190 and 230 rushing ypg, after gaining 6.0 or more ypc last game. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (403) Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
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10-20-18 | UTSA v. Southern Miss -16 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Southern Mississippi fell to 2-3 on the season after its second consecutive loss last week. The first loss was a respectable 11-point loss at Auburn but last week, they went to North Texas and lost by 23 points so they will be out for a big win as they return home. They are 2-1 with the lone loss coming by a point against UL-Monroe which was attributed to four turnovers. UTSA had a three-game winning streak snapped with a 31-3 home loss against Louisiana Tech but that winning streak cannot be taken too seriously. Two wins were against the two worst teams in C-USA while the other victory came against the worst team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Roadrunners were actually outgained in two of those victories and on the season, they are getting outgained by an average of 115.4 ypg. Here, we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after two or more consecutive straight up losses, with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 24-2 ATS (92.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average margin of victory being 26 ppg. 10* (394) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles |
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10-20-18 | NC State +17.5 v. Clemson | 7-41 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK as part for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. NC State is quietly off to a 5-0 start and it could be ready to make some noise in the ACC. We were on the Wolfpack two week ago before their bye week and despite outgaining Boston College by 215 total yards, they won by just five points as the Eagles sealed the cover with a late blocked punt return for a touchdown. Quarterback Ryan Finley was picked by many as First Team All-ACC and he is living up to that and he could really make a name for himself here against a Clemson defense that has shown some vulnerability at times. Clemson is also coming off its bye week after opening the season with six straight wins but a couple of those were a little close for comfort. Clemson has dominated this series throughout the years but the gap is closing as despite owning a decisive 7-1 straight up advantage over the Wolfpack in their last eight games against them, the Tigers are just 2-6 ATS over that stretch as five of the last six Clemson wins have been by fewer than what it is laying in this game. Here, we play on road teams that are averaging 6.2 or more yppl going up against a team allowing 4.2 or fewer yppl, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (389) NC State Wolfpack |
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10-20-18 | Charlotte v. Middle Tennessee State -16.5 | 13-21 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. BLUE RAIDERS as part for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. This is a perfect setup for Middle Tennessee as it is coming off an upset loss at Florida International by a field goal, its first conference loss of the season so now running the table in the C-USA East is not an option. The Blue Raiders are back home where they are 2-0 and have a chance to beat up on Charlotte which is coming off a 26-point victory over Western Kentucky as a 9.5-point home underdog. This happened before when the 49ers defeated Old Dominion as home underdogs and then went on the road and lost crushed by a bad Massachusetts team. Again, they are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Blue Raiders quarterback Brent Stockstill had to leave the game against FIU because of an ankle injury but all indications are he is good to go. Even if he is limited, backup Asher O'Hara is a capable backup that can carve through the Charlotte defense. Middle Tennessee is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after one or more consecutive straight up losses while going 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards last game. Meanwhile the 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 9* (396) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders |
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10-20-18 | Utah State v. Wyoming +15.5 | Top | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS for our Underdog Game of the Year. Wyoming has lost three straight games and five of its last six and it is getting closer to missing out on a bowl game. The recent schedule has been tough as the Cowboys faced Boise St. and lost by 20 points then had to travel to Hawaii where they played a competitive game but fell short and had to turn around to travel to Fresno St. last week where they were overmatched. They are back home and in a great contrarian situation. Utah St. lost its season opener at Michigan St. by just seven points and it has rolled over its last five opponents. The Aggies have covered all six games this season which is inflating this line and while they defeated BYU in their last road game by 25 points, they outgained the Cougars by just 27 yards as they took advantage of three turnovers. Wyoming falls into a great contrarian situation where we play on team after five or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (360) Wyoming Cowboys |
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10-20-18 | Virginia v. Duke -6.5 | 28-14 | Loss | -119 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a play on the DUKE BLUE DEVILS as part for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. Virginia is coming off an upset win over Miami as it defeated the Hurricanes by a field goal despite getting outgained by 108 total yards. The Cavaliers managed only 231 yards of offense but both teams tossed three interceptions and they were able to capitalize the most. Virginia moved to 4-0 at home but it is still winless on the road at 0-2 with the losses coming at Indiana and NC State. As bad as Virginia has been over the years, it has won three straight meetings in this series so Duke is in revenge mode. The Blue Devils lone loss came against Virginia Tech at home and that was an unfortunate spot as the Hokies were coming off that embarrassing home loss to Old Dominion. Duke has won all of its games by at least 14 points including road wins at Northwestern and Georgia Tech so this game is in the same type of significance as far as the opposition goes. It was unclear when quarterback Daniel Jones was going to be back after getting injured but he was back quicker than expected and it has shown. Here, we play against road teams coming off an upset win as a home underdog of seven points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (322) Duke Blue Devils |
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10-19-18 | Air Force -10 v. UNLV | Top | 41-35 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our MWC Game of the Month. The points at home look very tempting in this spot but UNLV is at a severe disadvantage in the most significant areas in this matchup. The Rebels opened the season 2-2 with quarterback Armani Rogers behind center and he is one of the most physically talented quarterbacks in the MWC. However, he suffered a significant toe injury in the loss to Arkansas St. and has not played since and it has showed. Though the Rebels lead the conference in rushing offense at 257.2ypg, Rogers ranks second on the team with 488 rushing yards with an impressive average of 6.87 ypc and his absence is striking. UNLV has been outrushed by 276 yards over the last two games and has been beaten by 36 and 31 points. The Rebels have rushed for a combined 197 yards on 75 carries (2.6 ypc) in those games and that will not do the job here against the Falcons which are ranked second in the MWC and eighth in the country having held opponents to 101.2 rushing ypg on 3.2 ypc. They need to load up and stop running back Lexington Thomas, who is banged up with a concussion. The Rebels have had to resort to passing the ball more with Max Gilliam at quarterback and it has not gone well. He was sacked seven times last week and overall, UNLV has averaged 8.9 yards to go on third down, 126th nationally, and their third-down Success Rate is 127th (29 percent). On the other side, Air Force also relies on the rushing game as it is averaging 248.3 ypg and while its quarterback situation is nearly as bad with injuries, the Falcons do not rely on a lot of production from the quarterback. UNLV is ranked last in the MWC and No. 105 in the nation, allowing 199.0 ypg. Here, we play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 35 or more ppg, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 44-15 ATS (74.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (309) Air Force Falcons |
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +1.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Arizona returns home following a two-game roadtrip where it split with San Francisco and Minnesota and looks to grab its first win at State Farm Stadium after starting the season 0-3. The Cardinals did look good in its last two home games, losing to Chicago and Seattle by a combined five points and Thursday presents a good opportunity to get the offense going. Arizona is dead last in the NFL in total offense and second to last in scoring offense but it has faced some strong defenses with four teams ranked at No. 11 or better in total defense and the other two coming in at No. 16 and No. 19. Denver will be the worst defense the Cardinals have faced and by a wide margin. The Broncos are near the bottom in numerous defensive categories and while they have faced the Rams and Chiefs, they have struggled against the rest of the schedule as well. In their last game against Minnesota, the Cardinals may have found something on offense they can use against the Broncos defense. The Cardinals used a hurry-up, no-huddle offense successfully, resulting in their one touchdown on offense in the fourth quarter and quarterback Josh Rosen looked comfortable which is no surprise since he has the on-huddle at UCLA. Their 302 offensive plays are the fewest by any team through that same time span since 2005 so the defense has been on the field for way too long. Despite that, he Arizona defense has not been horrible based on the schedule it has played and it will face a Broncos offense that has been inconsistent this season. The Cardinals are ranked No. 8 in defensive yppl at 5.4 despite being dead last in time of possession percentage and if they could keep that unit off the field, they could be even better. The Broncos are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (302) Arizona Cardinals |
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10-18-18 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -14 | Top | 35-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. The bad news for Arkansas St. is that it is 0-2 in the Sun Belt Conference. The good news is that both losses came against Georgia Southern and Appalachian St., the two top teams in the SBC East Division and the Red Wolves reside in the much weaker West Division and if they win out, they will be in the Sun Belt Conference Championship no matter what any other team does. The last two losses were painful in that both were winnable as they lost to the Eagles in the final seconds and against the Mountaineers, the were outgained by just 54 yards but three interceptions and a 3-17 third down conversion rate killed them. The offense is better than what was on display the last two games and they will face one of the worst defenses in the nation as Georgia St. is allowing 491.3 ypg which is No. 119 in the country. The Panthers have allowed 543, 679, 528 and 554 yards in four of their games so if the Red Wolves are to break out, this is the game to do it. They have made some changes on offense as select offensive packages were simplified to boost confidence and to limit excessive thinking. Creating more one-on-one matchups for their offensive skill players, something the Red Wolves have found as their offensive strength, has become prioritized even more. They welcome the Sun Belt's worst scoring offense as the Panthers 22.3 ppg is No. 115 in the country. Georgia St. did put up 46 points against UL-Monroe but has scored no more than 24 points in any of its other five games, averaging just 17.6 ppg. Arkansas St. is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games against teams allowing 31 or more while going 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games off a home loss. Additionally, we play on home teams after allowing 5.5 or more rushing ypc last game going up against an opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing ypc in two straight games. This situation is 56-25 ATS (69.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers -8.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. This is a big number to be laying down but the 49ers injury situation is not improving from earlier in the week. We already know Jimmy Garoppolo is out for the season but tonight, San Francisco will be without running back Matt Breida while three starting offensive linemen and a backup are all still listed as questionable. This is not ideal going up against a defense that has been underrated this season as the Packers are ranked No. 4 in total defense, allowing just 313.8 ypg while the scoring defense is also a top ten unit. C.J. Beathard gets the start and in just two games this season, he has thrown four interceptions giving him 10 career picks in only seven career starts. In the 28-18 loss to Arizona last week, Beathard completed 34 of 54 passes for 349 yards with two touchdowns and the 49ers rang up 447 yards of total offense. Of course, there were also five turnovers and that has plagued the 49ers offense all season. This is a big game for the Packers prior to their bye coming up next week as they are looking to bounce back from a loss to Detroit and they can move into first place with a victory. Following their bye, they have back-to-back games against the Rams and Patriots, both on the road, which puts more emphasis on this game. Many are down on this team but according to Pro Football Focus elite stats, the Packers enter Week Six as the 7th best team in the NFL with an 81.6 grade, while their offense ranks 6th with a 76.0 grade and their defense ranks 7th with a grade of 79.3. The Packers have outgained their last two opponents by 278 and 257 total yards so the offense continues to roll as well and while many are blaming the field goal kicking doing them in, the offense should not have put Mason Crosby in that position so many times by finishing 3-10 in third down. The Packers were unable to execute when needed but that should change at home against a mediocre San Francisco defense. 10* (278) Green Bay Packers |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 52 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Sunday Night Game of the Year. The game of the season so far will take place Sunday night as Kansas City brings in a perfect 5-0 record and will try to win here for a second straight season. The Chiefs are coming off an impressive win over Jacksonville as the defense held the Jaguars to just 14 points and that was due to five turnover. The defense still allowed 502 total yards so it is still an issue and was masked by the final score. Kansas City has been outgained in four of five games and while the offense will still move the ball, this is the one matchup where they will not likely jump out to a big lead which they have done in three of their four games. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. This is the third straight home game for the Patriots which is a significant advantage, even more so when playing with an extra three days of rest. They should excel against the Chiefs defense as quarterback Tom Brady has been very good this season and has recently gained steam while the Chiefs defense has not. The goal is at least 400 yards as going back to 2013, they are 32-2 when hitting that number. The history of Belichick-coached teams facing rookie quarterbacks is timely to revisit this week, and it starts with this: The Patriots are 9-0 at home against rookie signal-callers. It gets even better. Since 2007, quarterback Tom Brady is 59-2 at home against AFC opponents. The first loss was in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Buffalo Bills in 2014, when the Patriots had already clinched home-field advantage and Brady was pulled at halftime. The second was last season in their season opener and more important, it came against the Kansas City Chiefs which only adds to the motivation this Sunday night. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (276) New England Patriots |
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10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos +7 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. We won with Seattle last Sunday as the Seahawks played tough at home against the Rams and we are expecting the Broncos to do the same. Denver has lost three straight games after a 2-0 start and it has been a rough stretch from the schedule. An early game in Baltimore was followed up by a Monday game against the Chiefs and then a short week before another early east coast game against the Jets. This will obviously be their biggest test of the season and one of the advantages for the Broncos could be the elements. With snow on Saturday night and a high of just 31 and a high chance of snow in the morning, means there could be a sloppy field come mid-afternoon when the game begins. This could also mean a heavier dose of the run for Denver which can help slow down the Rams potent offense by keeping them off the field. The Broncos lead the league in rushing yards before first contact and Royce Freeman ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing yards after first contact. The Denver defense is anchored by Von Miller who has 4.0 sacks, 20 tackles, two forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery through five games. This is the third road game for the Rams and they have not been the same team on the highway as they were outgained against Oakland and had a tough test last week in Seattle. Despite laying a touchdown on the road, the public is all over the Rams once again which does not come as much of a surprise as recreational bettors are reacting to recent results. The Rams are now 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Denver is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games against teams that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg on the season. Additionally, we play on teams after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games going up against an opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 45-19 ATS (70.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (270) Denver Broncos |
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10-14-18 | Colts +2.5 v. Jets | 34-42 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Jets picked up a win last week at home against the Broncos but they were in a very favorable spot with Denver playing on a short week and having to play an early east coast game. New York snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory but now the roles are somewhat reversed with the Colts playing with an extra three days of rest coming off a Thursday night game. Winning consecutive games is rare for New York. Under head coach Todd Bowles, the Jets are 3-7 coming off of wins since 2016. Of those three wins, two were against the hapless Browns, and the other was at home against a Jaguars team that was coming off of a London game without a bye. The offensive line has determined the outcomes of their games thus far and they have a tough matchup here as the Colts present an improved defensive front that ranks 6th in defensive sack rate and is playing faster, more effective football with their revamped defensive scheme. Indianapolis has lost three straight games and it is now 1-4 on the season with the lone win coming at Washington. The Colts have played the fifth toughest schedule in the NFL with three of those five losses coming against teams ranked within the top 15 in the league. The loss against a team outside that came against the Texans in overtime. Quarterback Andrew Luck has a chance to carve up the Jets zone heavy defense that was crushed by Blake Bortles and Baker Mayfield. The Colts should have their starting offensive tackles back, which could mean a more effective ground game and more time for Luck to take shots down the field. Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games against teams with a .500 or better home record. The Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and they fall into a negative situation where we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 in a game involving two teams within +/- 40 ypg of their opponents, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 41-16 ATS (71.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (259) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-14-18 | Bears v. Dolphins +3.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We were on Miami last week and things were looking good with the Dolphins possessing a 17-0 lead late in the third quarter and then the wheels fell off. The Bengals tied the game early in the fourth quarter by way of a 22-yard interception return for a touchdown and took the lead late with a field goal. Miami was still alive with over two minutes remaining but quarterback Ryan Tannehill was strip sacked and the fumble was returned for a touchdown. The Dolphins are back home following a two-game roadtrip that saw them lose to the Patriots as well in a blowout. Chicago has won three straight games but the Bears have benefitted from playing the 27th ranked schedule in the NFL. They are coming off a bye week and the early bye is not good here as it killed momentum from the winning streak including the victory over Tampa Bay which was one of the most complete games on both sides in a while. The question here is are the Bears six points better than the Dolphins on a neutral field? The simple answer is no as this line is based on recency bias. Looking at the Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) provided by Football Outsiders for both teams, the Bears are 1st in defensive DVOA, while Miami checks in at 5th. The Bears are 17th offensively, with the Dolphins right behind them at 18 so these teams are more even that people think. The Chicago defense is a tough unit with the addition of Khalil Mack so the offensive line for the Dolphins has to step up which it did not do last Sunday. That was due to losing left tackle Laremy Tunsil with a concussion but he is projected to return this week as he is back at practice. Chicago is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards last game and is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl last game. Additionally, we play against favorites that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (256) Miami Dolphins |
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10-13-18 | Wisconsin +9.5 v. Michigan | 13-38 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a play on the WISCONSIN BADGERS as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. Wisconsin came into the season as a legitimate National Championship contenders but those aspirations are likely dead after it lost to BYU four weeks ago. The Badgers have yet to put together a complete game as they once again started slow last week against Nebraska and ended up outgaining the Huskers by just 15 yards despite winning the time of possession by over 11 minutes. Wisconsin is getting a lot of negative pub which can be a good thing when backing the Badgers where there is added value. The defense got shredded against Nebraska but the Huskers have a very solid offense and they take a step down this week. The interesting matchup here is the Badgers offense against the Wolverines defense. Wisconsin is statistically the best offense the Wolverines have faced thus far, averaging 480.2 ypg which is No. 25 in the nation. They are ranked No. 4 in rushing offense and are very efficient through the air behind quarterback Alex Hornibrook. Michigan has the top ranked defense in the country but it needs to be noted that the Badgers only road game came at Iowa and they put up 415 total yards (210 rushing and 205 passing). This is significant because the Hawkeyes are ranked No. 4 in the country in total defense. The Wolverines broke open a close game last week against Maryland with a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns including an interception returned for a touchdown that sealed it. Michigan is another team that has started games slow and this is not the game to do that as its offense may not have the capability of playing catch up. Michigan is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread while the Badgers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games and they fall into a solid situation where we play on road underdogs averaging 230 or more rushing ypg against teams averaging between 190-230 rushing ypg), after gaining 6.0 or more ypc last game. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (169) Wisconsin Badgers |
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10-13-18 | Washington v. Oregon +3.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 48 h 60 m | Show | |
This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. Oregon was in prime position to defeat Stanford at home three weeks ago but ended up losing in overtime which snapped its three-game winning streak to open the season but instead of sulking, the Ducks went out and pulled off an impressive won on the road at California. This is a big play offense once again led by quarterback Justin Herbert who is projected to be the likely No. 1 pick taken in the upcoming NFL Draft. The Oregon passing game improved in recent weeks, with receiver Dillon Mitchell breaking out for 21 catches for 344 yards in the Stanford and California games combined. With 13 passes that have gone for 30 yards or more (12th in FBS), Herbert is making big plays. Oregon is off a bye week which is a huge advantage and going back, the Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Washington has been pretty average for a team ranked No. 7 in the country as it has only one convincing win over a team from he FBS. The Huskies have especially struggled on the road and last week was a perfect example as they were three-touchdown favorites at winless UCLA and escaped with a seven-point win as they only outgained the Bruins by just 40 yards. They are solid on both sides of the ball so this is no cakewalk for Oregon but this environment will be a tough one for Washington. Oregon has won 10 of its last 14 games against Top 10 teams at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks have also won 11 of their last 15 contests at Autzen Stadium when they are ranked and the opponent is ranked. Additionally, they have won 23 of their last 26 home games when ranked. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games while Oregon is 29-9 ATS in its last 38 games after leading their last two games by 14 or points at the half. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams that are outgain opponents by 1.2 or more yppl, after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 36-9 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (160) Oregon Ducks |
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10-13-18 | Temple v. Navy +7 | 24-17 | Push | 0 | 48 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. In a lot of cases, when teams are coming off embarrassing losses in meaningful games, they tend to pick up their play next time out and we are expecting that from Navy this week. The Midshipmen are coming off a disastrous 35-7 defeat at the hands of rival Air Force in which the offense managed only six first downs and 119 total yards through three quarters. They also struggled offensively the previous game during a 31-30 overtime loss to SMU but that could be chalked up to looking ahead to the Falcons. The offense has taken a lot of heat with quarterback being blamed but coaches claim there is no issue with Malcolm Perry and offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper made a great in saying that Navy was leading the nation in rushing coming into the Air Force game. He took the blame for instituting a bad game plan as Air Force came in with a different plan than he anticipated. Because of that game and the recency bias, the Midshipmen are catching a favorable number at home. Temple moved back .500 with a blowout win over East Carolina but that was East Carolina. The Owls do own an impressive road win over Maryland and they have been playing better of late after a 0-2 start but being a road favorite here is pretty aggressive. Quarterback Anthony Russo had another solid game but the offense took a hit when running back Ryquell Armstead, who leads the team with 626 yards, left in the third quarter last game and is listed as questionable this week and that will be a big blow, even if he plays and is limited. Navy is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games after gaining 3.75 or fewer yppl in its previous game while the Owls are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Additionally, we play against teams after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 122-69 ATS (63.9 percent) since 1992. 9* (174) Navy Midshipmen |
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10-13-18 | Georgia v. LSU +7.5 | Top | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 48 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our SEC Game of the Year. We played against LSU last week as the Tigers went to Florida and suffered their first loss of the season. They are back in Baton Rouge for their first real home test of the season and they have an excellent shot at a big bounceback and to remain in the thick of the SEC West race. A loss here will likely take any chance out as they would fall two games behind Alabama. This is a tough matchup for sure but LSU matches up well against Georgia in their first meeting since 2013. The Tigers are averaging 190 ypg rushing on 4.5 ypc and they have a chance to succeed here as the Bulldogs rushing defense has been nothing special of late. Taking Tennessee out of the equation, Georgia has allowed 4.8 ypc, 4.6 ypc and 4.2 ypc over its last three games. Quarterback Joe Burrow has been very solid as he has given LSU a quarterback that has been able to take some shots downfield for the first time in a very long time and he will be facing a fairly young secondary. Taking nothing away from how Georgia has dominated every game thus far but it has played the easiest schedule of all teams in the SEC. The Bulldogs defeated Missouri by 14 points in their last road game and it was far from a domination as they benefitted from three Tigers turnovers including a fumble that was returned for a touchdown and they also blocked a punt for a touchdown. Georgia is one of the youngest teams in the nation this season as its roster consists of 68.5 percent freshmen and sophomores. That is the youngest in the SEC and 15th youngest in the country and this will be the toughest place those players will have seen as before this is was Auburn which resulted in a blowout loss. The Bulldogs will be starting two for sure, and maybe three, freshmen on the offensive line. They lost a ton from the front seven and coming into this week, the Bulldogs are last of 14 SEC schools in sacks with just six. LSU has been a home underdog just seven times since 2009 and never allowed more than 23 points in any of those games. Additionally, LSU is 9-0 ATS against teams averaging 8.0 or more passing ypa. 10* (198) LSU Tigers |
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10-13-18 | Toledo v. Eastern Michigan +2.5 | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 45 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Eastern Michigan has to be the most unlucky team in football over the last two seasons. Expectations were high last season following the Eagles first bowl game since 1987 as they returned 15 starters from that 2016 squad but they finished 5-7 with three of those losses coming in overtime and another three coming by a combined 10 points. The unfortunes have continues this season as after a 2-0 start, including a win at Purdue, Eastern Michigan has dropped four straight games including two more in overtime and a three-point loss last week in Western Michigan. There is nothing flashy about the Eagles but they clearly have found a way to compete after a four-year run between 2012 and 2015 where they went a combined 7-41. While the Eagles have lost 11 straight meetings in this series, this is not the same Toledo of old. The Rockets are 3-2 but all three wins have come at home and it was handled pretty easily by Fresno St. in its lone road game of the season. They have been outgained in four straight games including both victories that came by a combined 35 points but they were outgained by a combined 131 yards. The offense can be explosive as they have put up point totals of 66, 63 and 52 but those were all at home against inferior opponents and Eastern Michigan has the resemblance of a solid defense and in its last home game, it allowed only 356 yards against Northern Illinois. Eastern Michigan has played the third toughest schedule in the MAC while Toledo has played the second easiest so if those were flipped, we could easily see a difference in the records of both teams. Eastern Michigan is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games when playing against a team with a winning record while going 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off a conference loss. Additionally, we play against teams outscoring opponents by 7.0 or more ppg, after allowing 31 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (120) Eastern Michigan Eagles |
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10-13-18 | Nebraska +5 v. Northwestern | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 45 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Give a lot of credit to Northwestern as it was coming off a heartbreaking loss against Michigan two weeks ago at home where it blew a 17-0 lead but bounced back brilliantly on the road as the Wildcats went to East Lansing and defeated Michigan St. by 10 points. Those were two very impressive games for Northwestern, which was coming off losses against Duke and Akron, but digging deeper shows they should not have been where they finished. Against the Wolverines, they were outgained by 174 total yards as they benefitted from 11 penalties by Michigan that resulted in 100 yards. Against the Spartans, they were outgained by 44 yards and the winning margin was gained by Michigan St. missing a fourth down on its own 11-yard line with over three minutes left, which was a suspect play call. We are seeing huge reverse line movement in this game as the Wildcats opened as 7.5-point favorites and while over two-thirds of the tickets are on then, the line has dropped considerably. Nebraska is off to its worst start since 1945 and the natives are getting restless as this is not what was envisioned when Scott Frost was hired as head coach. Going back to last season, the Huskers have lost nine straight games so they need to get on the right side of the scoreboard and fast. Three weeks against Michigan was a disaster but the next week, they outgained Purdue but lost because of 136 penalty yards. Last week, they lost at Wisconsin by 17 points but were outgained by just 15 yards as 100 yards in penalties were the difference once again. Two situation favor Nebraska. First, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more, in October games. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 47-14 ATS (77 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (179) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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10-12-18 | South Florida v. Tulsa +7.5 | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE for our CFB Friday Game of the Month. This is what we can consider a trap line. South Florida, which lost only twice last season, is off to a 5-0 start but it is a misleading 5-0 start. One win came against Elon of the FCS while three others came against Illinois, East Carolina and Massachusetts, not exactly murderers row. The one quality win came against Georgia Tech by 11 points but the Bulls were outgained by 176 total yards as it returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and benefitted from three Georgia Tech turnovers, two of which were at the end of the game and led to two touchdowns. Basically, it was a game the South Florida was completely outplayed in but won thanks to four touchdowns from somewhere other than the offense. Another part of the trap line concept is that the Bulls were favored by 24 points last season at home and we are seeing a 17-point shift which is too big for some to comprehend. Despite the big number, it was only a seven-point loss. South Florida lost one of the best players in the conference in quarterback Quinton Flowers, who was also its leading rusher, its two other top rusher and top receiver as well as six defensive starters. We played against Tulsa last Thursday as it lost to Houston but stayed within the number. The Cougars could not come through with the revenge cover and give the Golden Hurricane credit for staying close nearly the entire game and only getting outgained by 53 yards. They have 15 starters back from their 2-10 team and at 1-4, this is a huge game for a much improved team. They have some tight losses against quality teams from a schedule that is ranked No. 33 in the country. Going back, the Golden Hurricane are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off two consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals, in October games. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (110) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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10-11-18 | Eagles -3 v. Giants | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Philadelphia is off to a 2-3 post-Super Bowl Champion start which is not overly surprising considering most teams not named the Patriots tend to go through a Super Bowl hangover. The Eagles three losses all could have been wins however as the net yardage differential in those games is a total wash at 0.0. Only seven previous defending Super Bowl champions that started 2-3, and only one of the previous seven rebounded to make the postseason. Their season is far from over as they can buck history simply because they are located in the NFC East. Philadelphia is a half-game behind Washington, along with Dallas, and a game ahead of the Giants and this division is the only one with a team possessing first place that is not above .500. The Eagles simply have to win the close games they have been losing and they need to get the offense on track as their 20.6 ppg is ranked No. 25 in the league. Enter the Giants, which have allowed 33 points in each of their last two games including an excruciating last second loss against Carolina last week to drop them to 1-4. While they are not dead either because of the weakness of the division, they are a mess inside he locker room. The offense finally showed something against the Panthers but they will struggle against a strong Eagles defensive front as the offensive line has stunk it up. New York is No. 28 in rushing offense while Philadelphia is ranked No. 2 in rushing defense so any resemblance of balance on Thursday will be a tall order. The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win while the Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game and fall into a solid situation where we play on road favorites after two or more consecutive losses, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (103) Philadelphia Eagles |
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10-11-18 | Texas Tech v. TCU -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the TCU HORNED FROGS for our Big XII Game of the Month. Texas Tech has had a nice turnaround after getting crushed in its season opener against Mississippi and a lot of that credit goes to quarterback Alan Bowman. He replaced McLane Carter who had to leave that game with a high ankle sprain and was great by going 29-49 for 273 yards and a touchdown in his first action as a freshman but the defense was the typical Texas Tech defense in the 47-27 loss. Bowman started the next four games but had to leave the last one against West Virginia when a hit partially collapsed a lung and he had to be hospitalized for four days. Jett Duffey took over and he did not play well and he is in line to start tonight as Bowman has been downgraded to doubtful after being questionable all week and all signs are that the Carter ankle will still keep him out. Quarterback play is huge in the Red Raiders system and if this were any normal game, going to the third string might not make a big difference but this is no normal game. They will be facing a 3-2 TCU team that stayed with Ohio St. for three and a half quarters and the following week, had Texas on the ropes but costly turnovers did them in as they outgained the Longhorns. The challenge for the Red Raiders is facing a defense that is allowing just 303.6 ypg, which is tops in the Big XII and No. 12 in the nation. Additionally, the Horned Frogs lead the conference in passing defense and passing efficiency defense, checking in at No. 22 and No. 24 in the nation respectively. In their last game against West Virginia, the Red Raiders came in averaging 621 ypg and was held to 463 yards against a Mountaineers defense that is slightly worse than that of the Horned Frogs. While the strength of the Texas Tech defense is stopping the run, which is the strength of the TCU offense, it is skewed as the Red Raiders are 52nd against the run but 101st in ypc average. Texas Tech is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points while the Horned Frogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (106) TCU Horned Frogs |
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10-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +10.5 | Top | 35-9 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES for our CFB Tuesday Star Attraction. We expected this line to go up and that is precisely what it has done as Appalachian St. opened at -7.5 and it is now up to -10.5 in some places. The is a classic reason to wait and let the betting public move the number so we can get on the other side with the added value. The Mountaineers have been great this season as they lost in overtime to Penn St. but have bounced back with three blowout wins. Dominating? Yes. Impressive? No. Those wins came over Charlotte, Gardner Webb and South Alabama and those teams are currently ranked No. 175, No. 243 and No. 162 respectively in the most recent Sagarin Ratings with a combined 4-13 record. Conventional handicapping says to back the better rushing team, especially when there is a large differential between the two teams and in this case, Appalachian St. averages 269.5 ypg on 6.5 ypc while Arkansas St. allows 245.0 ypg on 5.7 ypc. That does not mean a blowout is in order. The Red Wolves got decimated on the ground in their last two games as they allowed 310 yards rushing on 6.3 ypc against UNLV and still won the game. In their last game against Georgia Southern, they allowed 348 yards rushing on 7.1 ypc and they lost by just a touchdown and that was on the road. Georgia Southern is ranked No. 5 in the nation in rushing offense while Appalachian St. comes in at No. 7 so there is no bigger advantage for the Mountaineers. Arkansas St. is ranked No. 87 in the Sagarin Ratings as it is now 3-2 on the season including a 2-0 record at home where it is 36-7 since 2011. Going back to last season, Appalachian St. is on a perfect 8-0 ATS run and do not think the linesmakers do not know that. Meanwhile, Arkansas St. has failed to cover five straight at home which sets up the perfect contrarian scenario. 10* (102) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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10-08-18 | Redskins +6 v. Saints | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The Saints are off to a 3-1 start to the season but they are overpriced as being a big, primetime public home team, the line has been inflated. They are coming off a pair of road wins but they were against teams that are a combined 2-8 so not much should be taken from that. The home edge is always a big one here and tonight it will be electric with Drew Brees likely to pass Peyton Manning as the All-Time Passing Leader but that is certainly no reason to bet on a team. Even more so knowing the Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six Monday night games. Washington is 2-1 coming off its bye week which is a good thing now but could catch up to the Redskins later with it being so early. They were able rest and recover some injuries as running back Adrian Peterson (ankle) is ready to go and cornerback Josh Norman (hamstring) and left tackle Trent Williams (knee surgery) had time to heal and ease their way into practice this week. Alex Smith has proven to be a good pickup from the Chiefs as he manages the offense just like he did in Kansas City. Washington has an assorted array of skill talent, as well a solid offensive line, for a balanced attack that can get to a Saints defense which is allowing 30.2 ppg despite playing four teams that are a combined 5-10-1 with none possessing a winning record. The scoring defense is ranked No. 30 in the NFL while the total defense is ranked in the bottom quarter of the league. Washington is tops in the league in total defense but that is against a small sample size however it has been successful at disrupting opposing quarterbacks this season, ranking top-10 in pressures and that is important against Brees. New Orleans is just 12-32 ATS in its last 44 home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Meanwhile the Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (477) Washington Redskins |
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10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks +7.5 | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Rams are off and running to a 4-0 start and their +73 scoring differential leads the NFL. They lead the league in total offense, averaging 125 ypg on the ground and 343 ypg through the air and they have scored at least 33 points every game this season. The schedule has been in their favor with three home games and the lone road game coming in Oakland and it has now been well over month since they left the state of California. Despite laying over a touchdown on the road, the public is all over the Rams which does not come as much of a surprise as recreational bettors are reacting to recent results while sharps like getting a 2-2 team as a touchdown or more underdog at home. The Rams are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. After losing its first two games by one possession, Seattle has bounced back with two straight wins including a last second victory over Arizona last week. The Seahawks have rediscovered their run game with consecutive 100-yard rushers and their defense has held three straight opponents to under 305 total yards of offense. Seattle is not without its problems and the one most talked about most is the offense line. But according to analysis based on new player tracking information, the much-maligned Seahawks offensive line might actually be decent at pass blocking, and it might not have been bad last season, either. The Seahawks have the fourth-best PBWR (pass block win rate) 2.5 seconds after the snap so they could have some success against the Rams defense. This is a big revenge game for Seattle and as much as the Seahawks would like to forget that day last December, a 42-7 loss to Los Angeles lingers. This is a situation the Seahawks have thrived in as they are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs of two or more points while going 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs playing with revenge against a .500 or better opponent. 10* (474) Seattle Seahawks |
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10-07-18 | Titans v. Bills +5.5 | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Of all the 4-0 and 3-1 teams in the NFL, Tennessee is arguably the fraud of the bunch. The Titans improved to 3-1 with an overtime win over the Eagles last Sunday, all three victories coming in succession after opening the season with a loss in Miami. While it was an impressive win over the reining Super Bowl Champions, the Titans were outgained for the third time this season and the one game they won the yardage battle, it was by just one yard against Jacksonville. In the win over Houston, they were outgained by 154 yards and overall, Tennessee is ranked No. 24 in total offense and No. 15 in total defense. The defense took a hit last week as the Titans lost starting safety Kenny Vaccaro for several weeks after he was injured on Sunday. Buffalo is not a good football team as it got shutout last week in Green Bay to fall to 1-3 on the season. This is another classic situation of recency bias as the linesmakers had to make a line adjustment knowing where the majority of the money will fall. Buffalo has the second worst offense in the NFL but it will eventually find a groove as Josh Allen gets more reps and he is showing a lot of promise. While the offense has struggled, the Bills improvement on defense has been tangible in the last two-and-a-half games. Buffalo has quietly moved just outside the top 10 in run defense. They are facing a Titans run game whose leading rusher is their quarterback Marcus Mariota. Derrick Henry managed just 24 yards on eight carries last week and Dion Lewis had four carries for zero yards. Neither are averaging more than 3.3 ypc. Tennessee is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl in their previous game. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 36-13 ATS (73.5 percent) since 1983. 9* (456) Buffalo Bills |
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10-07-18 | Dolphins +6 v. Bengals | 17-27 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Sunday Afternoon Value Play. Miami got thumped last week in New England and that has been the case for the Dolphins in New England since Tom Brady took over so we cannot read to much into last week. Against the Patriots last week, Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill completed only 11 passes while the Miami offense was largely unproductive thanks to early penalties, being behind schedule with several third-and-long situations, and no run game to provide balance. They have to take advantage of the Cincinnati defense, one of five teams to surrender more than 300 yards passing per game this season. Prior to the loss, Miami ranked 11th in scoring offense with 25.0 ppg and sixth in scoring defense while allowing just 17.3 ppg. The Dolphins defense leads the NFL with nine interceptions and is second in opposing passer rating (72.2). The Bengals are coming off an impressive upset win in Atlanta last week and while many will call the Dolphins one of the worst 3-1 teams in the NFL, the Bengals have to be in that argument as well and have no business laying a number this big. Cincinnati has been outgained in three of its four games, similar to Miami so these team are pretty close to each other. The back-end of the Bengals defense appears to be vulnerable to the pass at all levels. If the offensive line of the Dolphins can give Ryan Tannehill a little bit of time, the quick release works. Matt Ryan did this all game last Sunday to help neutralize the pass rush of Cincinnati. The Bengals rank last in third-down efficiency, allowing opponents to convert 57.4 percent (35 of 61). Here, we play against home teams after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more points last game going up against an opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 45-19 ATS (70.3 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Cincinnati is 8-20 ATS after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games. 9* (465) Miami Dolphins |
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10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | Top | 9-12 | Win | 105 | 46 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our AFC North Game of the Year. Cleveland comes into Week Five at 1-2-1 and it has played a lot better than that record shows. Two missed field goals and two bad referee calls last week has put the Browns in this spot and had those gone the other way, they could feasibly be 4-0 right now. While a lot of the hype is surrounding Baker Mayfield and the improved defense, and as it well should, the improvement overall can partly be attributed to not making mistakes. Prone to turnovers in past years, the Browns have the best turnover ratio in the NFL through the first quarter of the season. Mayfield is the type of quarterback that the Ravens have traditionally struggled against. He is mobile, he can beat you in unconventional ways and he has the arm talent to do damage. Cleveland finished No. 18 last season in rushing offense but it is currently No. 2 in that category, averaging 15.8 ypg. Baltimore is coming off a huge win in Pittsburgh last week to move to 3-1 on the season and that presents us with a great letdown opportunity. The last time Cleveland defeated Baltimore was back in October of 2015 and that situation is very similar to this week as the Ravens were coming off a win at Pittsburgh. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has traditionally had his best games against the Browns but this will be the best Browns team that has faced. The recency bias is in full effect here after last week with the Baltimore win over Pittsburgh coupled with the Brown allowing 45 points last week against the Raiders. Baltimore falls into a negative situation where we play against favorites that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This includes a 14-2 ATS record over the last five seasons. 10* (452) Cleveland Browns |
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10-06-18 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M -5.5 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 33 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a play on the TEXAS A&M AGGIES for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. One of the early season surprises has been Kentucky as it is off to a 5-0 start while outgaining all five opponents on top of it. The Wildcats only road game was an impressive win at Florida but the Gators have turned the corner since that debacle. Gone are the laughingstock Wildcats as they are just one win away from qualifying for their third straight bowl game. The strength of Kentucky is the running game as it averages 259.4 ypg on 5.9 ypc led by Benny Snell Jr. who has rushed for 664 yards following a pair of 1,000-yard seasons his first two years at Kentucky. The Wildcats will be in for a test this week as Texas A&M allows just 85 rushing ypg, good for No. 6 in the country, and just 3.3 ypc. This can be very bad news for the Wildcats as they are not necessarily equipped to take advantage of a glaring weakness on the Aggie defense. They have struggled to stop big plays in the passing game and ranked 108th in passing yards allowed at 272.2 ypg but Kentucky cannot throw the ball. Texas A&M is 3-2 and it is one of the better 3-2 records in the country as the two losses came against Alabama, in a game was close for a while, and Clemson by just two points. The Aggies should have the edge on offense as well despite playing one of the top and underrated defenses in the country. The Aggies average 511.8 ypg which ranks 13th in the country. They are No. 24 in rushing offense and No. 32 in passing offense and they will undoubtedly be the most balanced offense Kentucky has faced. Playing a night game at Kyle Field is a big advantage for Texas A&M with the 12th man. Texas A&M has covered four straight games against winning teams and falls into a great situation where we play against teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 9* (382) Texas A&M Aggies |
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10-06-18 | Old Dominion v. Florida Atlantic -13 | Top | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS for our C-USA Game of the Year. Florida Atlantic is coming off a tough loss against Middle Tennessee as it gave up the winning touchdown with 38 seconds left which was culminated with the two-point conversion. The Owls fell to 2-3 overall and now need to make up ground in the C-USA East Division after losing the conference opener. We saw something similar to this last season as they started the season 1-3 and went on to win 10 straight games. It will be up to the defense to make a similar result which is surprising considering the Owls allowed 390 ypg and 22.7 ppg but those averages have increased to 459 ypg and 39.8 ppg despite the return of 10 starters. However, this regression has been because of two games against UCF and Oklahoma where they allowed and average of 597.5 ypg and 59.5 ppg and Old Dominion is not in that group despite what it did to Virginia Tech. While the Monarchs hung with the Pirates last week, East Carolina dominated throughout as it outgained the Monarchs 492-271 but needed a field goal with less than a minute remaining to pull out the win. The Pirates had two interceptions which both led to Old Dominion touchdowns that totaled 44 yards so that is a big reason the score was as close as it was. Old Dominion has been outgained in four of five games and in that Virginia Tech game, it outgained the Hokies by just 32 total yards. Overall, the defense is allowing 509 ypg and while the Owls offense as not quite as potent as last season thus far, they should be able to name the score here. Old Dominion is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 475 or more total yards in two consecutive games and Florida Atlantic falls into a situation where we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after two or more consecutive straight up losses, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 23-2 ATS (92 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (328) Florida Atlantic Owls |
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10-06-18 | LSU v. Florida +3 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. The public is all over LSU in this matchup as the No. 5 ranked team in the AP Poll is favored by less than a field goal. The Tigers off to a 5-0 start with impressive wins against Miami and Auburn and it is coming off its most complete game of the season last week against Mississippi. In the first four games, LSU was outgained twice including in its game against Louisiana Tech so this team may not be quite as good as some may think. The defense is legit once again and while the offense is averaging a decent amount of points, the Tigers are averaging just 5.6 yppl which is No. 59 in the country. The Gators have won three straight games in dominant fashion following that home loss against Kentucky. While they only won 13-6 last week against Mississippi St., they outgained the Bulldogs by 155 total yards with the defense leading the way by allowing just 202 yards on a mere 3.5 yppl. The Gators have good defensive metrics in most categories: 19th in total defense (LSU is 32nd), 6th in pass-efficiency defense (LSU is 23rd), and 13th overall in S&P+ defense (LSU is 15th). To win, the defense has to play its game and it does not need to do anything over the top. Florida enters with momentum and confidence, having played great defense the past two weeks against offenses with similar efficiency profiles to LSU. The offense was pretty solid last week but Florida struggled on third down but it is still converting at a 39.1 percent slip which is a vast improvement from their 32.5 percent from last season. While the line is short and the public is piling on the road team and the thinking is the wrong team is favored. The difference in the latest S&P+ projections suggest that LSU is only 0.6 points (15.5 to 14.9) better than Florida on a neutral field which means the Gators should be favored. 9* (334) Florida Gators |
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10-06-18 | Iowa v. Minnesota +7.5 | 48-31 | Loss | -130 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. Both Iowa and Minnesota are coming off losses and then a bye week so there is no scheduling or motivation edge on either side which is good for Minnesota considering it is getting a sizable number at home. The Gophers are coming off their worst game of the season by a lot as they were hammered against Maryland on the road. They have dominated at home including a solid win over a good Fresno St. team. There is no denying the offense has had its share of problems through four games but we are banking on the other side to keep this one low scoring which makes the points that much better. Iowa lost a tough one to Wisconsin which was at home, and this is the first road game of the season for the Hawkeyes. They too have a lethargic offense that has been unable to get anything going. Both teams have used a similar blueprint to reach this point, relying on a generally stingy defense to overcome an oft-sputtering offense. While Minnesota's offensive numbers are pretty dismal, their defensive numbers have been much more solid. They're allowing 17.3 ppg, 19th best in the nation and they are giving up 300.3 ypg, 14th best nationally. They will give Iowa a real test as its best game came against Northern Iowa od the FCS. The one issue is that Minnesota lost their best defender, safety Antoine Winfield, Jr., for the season to a foot injury sustained in the Maryland game but Iowa does not have the firepower to take advantage. Iowa quarterback Nate Stanley has struggled this season after a very solid 2017 season as he has been pedestrian and the offense has sputtered at times as a result. The Hawkeyes are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record while the Gophers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (388) Minnesota Golden Gophers |
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10-06-18 | Maryland +17.5 v. Michigan | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the MARYLAND TERRAPINS for our Big Ten Game of the Month. With all of the turmoil with Maryland entering the season, it is very impressive what it has done. The Terrapins are 3-1 including an upset over Texas and the one hiccup came against Temple, a game they simply did not show up for. They bounced back with a resounding victory over Minnesota and the big part about heading into this week is not just the renewed confidence but the fact they are coming off a bye week and an extra week of preparation before Michigan is a big advatnage. The Terrapins are 20th in the country in total defense, 18th in rushing defense and 52nd in passing defense so the inconsistent Wolverines offense will be put to test. Michigan is coming off a hard-fought physical game against Northwestern and it was fortunate to come away with a victory even though it dominated the stats. Northwestern was a tough test because it was on the road, but Maryland is the best all-around team Michigan has faced since the opener against Notre Dame. Saturday will be the definition of a trap game for Michigan, as the Wolverines are coming off a close, emotional road win and looking forward to three straight games against ranked opponents starting Wisconsin next week in a revenge game. Looking at raw numbers, we see that Maryland has played a schedule ranked No. 48 and Michigan has played a schedule ranked No. 43 so those are a near wash. As far as output, the Wolverines are ranked No. 8 in net yppl at +2.79 but Maryland is not far behind at +1.90. Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after allowing 3.75 or fewer yppl in their previous game and Maryland falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs (averaging 230 or more rushing ypg going up against a team averaging 190-230 rushing ypg after gaining 6.0 or more rushing ypc last game. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (337) Maryland Terrapins |
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10-06-18 | Boston College v. NC State -6.5 | 23-28 | Loss | -106 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK as part of our CFB Saturday Ultimate Trifecta. NC State came through for us last week and we will be backing the Wolfpack again this week. They fell behind 7-3 but ran off 24 consecutive points to pull away and they have a similar matchup this week. The Wolfpack had their game against West Virginia postponed which would have given us a good indicator of how they are against elite competition but we are not putting Boston College at that level just like we did not with Virginia. NC State is now 4-0 on the season while moving into the top 25 which is pretty meaningless in the big picture but it is big for the players and it boasts strong units on both sides of the ball. It leads the ACC and ranks ninth in the FBS in passing offense, throwing for 342.3 ypg. NC State is converting 59.3 percent of its third downs this season (32 of 54), which trails only UCF and Alabama (59.7 percent) nationally. running back AJ Dillon will be a game-time decision against NC State on Saturday with an ankle injury. His absence will be huge and even if he does play, he will not be 100 percent as he has been unable to practice. Dillon, who ranks No. 3 in the nation with 652 yards, rolled his left ankle last week against Temple in the third quarter and did not return to the game. Boston College averages 243.4 ypg on 51 attempts per game but the Eagles also have not been all that efficient about getting there, ranking only 70th in marginal efficiency. Additionally, over 20 percent of their rushing attempts are stopped for no gain or negative yards, a figure that ranks 84th among FBS teams. Boston College will need all the help it can get against the Wolfpack, a team that ranks 19th and 13th in the nation in rushing defense and scoring defense respectively. While stopping the run game is the main focus, the Wolfpack secondary has to stay on its toes and prepare for surprises in the pass game. 9* (332) NC State Wolfpack |
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10-05-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Marshall -6 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -106 | 56 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our CFB Friday Supreme Annihilator. Marshall enters Friday coming off a win over Western Kentucky but it was an ugly victory. The Thundering Herd had four turnovers with all of them occurring on the Western Kentucky side of the field, eliminating scoring opportunities for them to distance themselves early. The good news is that it was an important road win and one they can learn from in what is a huge early season conference game. It may only be the second game of the Conference USA slate, but it takes on significant meaning with the Blue Raiders coming in with a 1-0 record and having a win in hand over one of the C-USA top teams. Middle Tennessee defeated Florida Atlantic last week by one point with the winning touchdown coming in the final minute so a Marshall victory here at home put it in the drivers seat over the other two top teams in the East Division. The Blue Raiders are now 2-2 and have been outgained in three of four games. The schedule has no doubt been tough which has included a pair of games against SEC teams. Marshall could have some solid matchup edges here. With Middle Tennessee's blitz-heavy defense, the opportunity opens up for one-on-one situations and mismatches. Given that Marshall wide receivers Tyre Brady and Obi Obialo have excelled in one-on-one scenarios this season, there is plenty optimism that they can take advantage in this particular matchup. The Thundering Herd come in with the better defense, namely against the run where they are allowing 2.0 fewer ypc than what Middle Tennessee is allowing and for a pair of less than average rushing offenses, that is significant. The Blue Raiders are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win and here, we play on home teams rushing for 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams rushing for 3 to 3.5 ypc, after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 53-22 ATS (70.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (308) Marshall Thundering Herd |
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10-04-18 | Colts +10.5 v. Patriots | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our AFC Thursday Game of the Year. Indianapolis enters Week Five with a 1-3 record and with a few bounces its way, it could be 3-1 or 4-0 as the three losses have been that close to going either way. In their last road game, the Colts lost at Philadelphia where they were getting 6.5 points and went down by just four. Now they are getting over a field goal more and at this point in the season, New England is not three points better than the Eagles so this is an inflated line based on who it is and not what it is. Andrew Luck is coming off his best game of the season as he threw for 464 yards and four touchdowns and on the season, he is completing over 67 percent of his passes which is by far the best of his career. The Patriots passing defense is ranked in the top ten in the league but they have not been overly tested yet with Matthew Stafford cutting them up pretty good and while DeShawn Watson is considered near the top, it was his first game back from injury. The Patriots put their most complete game together last week against Miami as they outgained the Dolphins by 277 total yards. They have looked dominant at home and not so much on the road but just because they blew out Miami last week, they should not be put on this high of a pedestal. There are issues all over the place that can be exploited. In making another line comparison, New England was favored by 6.5 points over Miami and we are here to say that Miami is not a over a field goal better than the Colts despite the 3-1 record compared to the 1-3 record. As a matter of fact, look at most power rankings and you will find the Colts ahead of Miami. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential.), after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (301) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-04-18 | Tulsa v. Houston -17.5 | Top | 26-41 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our AAC Game of the Month. Houston was able to bounce back from its only loss of the season at Texas Tech as it rolled over Texas Southern 70-14, racking up 671 total yards in the process. The offense has been rolling all season as through four games, the Cougars are averaging 607 ypg and 52.3 ppg which are good for No. 1 and No. 2 in the country respectively. They have been as efficient as they come with Houston scoring 29 touchdowns and just two field goals in the four games. The big reason for the success is quarterback D'Eriq King. He took over the starting job toward the end of last season and has not missed a beat in 2018 as he has completed 62.7 percent of his passes while throwing for 1,197 yards and he has an unreal 15:1 TD/INT ratio. He has also added five rushing touchdowns. This is bad news for a Tulsa defense that has improved immensely since last season but it has yet to face an offense of this caliber. Houston got thumped in Tulsa last season and it will be out to return the favor. The Cougars allowed 288 yards rushing on 53 carries (5.4 ypc), which was their worst performance of the season. Things have changed however. Tulsa lost leading rusher D'Angelo Brewer and Houston, while giving up a ton of passing yards, have been excellent against the run, allowing just 114 ypg and while a lot of that can be attributed to teams abandoning the run to play catchup, the Cougars are allowing just 2.8 ypc so they have been stuffing the run. Tulsa does not have the offense to play catchup as quarterback Luke Skipper is averaging just 181.8 ypg and he has only four touchdowns compared to six interceptions. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after a cover as a double digit favorite, playing a team with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 61-27 ATS (69.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Houston Cougars |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The red hot Chiefs travel to Denver to take on their rival as they will be going for a sixth straight victory in this series. Kansas City is off to a 3-0 start thanks to an offense that has yet to be stopped. The problem is, the defense has yet to stop anyone and the fact the Chiefs have been outgained in all three games is concerning. The Chiefs defense has combined to miss 36 tackles so far this season, which is the most among NFL defenses and it will not be getting any better this week as it has now been 48 days since safety Eric Berry practiced or played and he is again listed as doubtful. The Chiefs come in as the road favorite, which is rare in this series as it has happened only twice in 30 years and it is because of their hot start which can offer us opportunities in a market that tends to overreact week-to-week. Denver is off to a 2-1 start as it looks to improve to 3-0 at home following a loss in Baltimore last week. It will be up to the defense to come through here and try and slow down Mahomes and company. The Broncos possess a solid pass rush that can get to the quarterback and in this case, they will be looking to rattle Mahomes who tends to hold the ball longer than he should. Arguably one of the best cornerbacks in the game, Chris Harris Jr. has continued to shut down opposing receivers and he will be tested for sure by Tyreek Hill but he will play a key role. On the other side, the Broncos offense is middle of the pack but the rushing offense leads the way as they are ranked No. 4 in the NFL at 144.7 ypg while their 5.2 ypc average is also good for No. 4 in the league. Here, we play against road favorites that are averaging 27 or more ppg, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. This situation is 47-20 ATS (70.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (278) Denver Broncos |
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09-30-18 | Bills v. Packers -8.5 | 0-22 | Win | 100 | 44 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The results from last week are giving us tremendous value in this line. Buffalo pulled off the massive upset last Sunday as it won in Minnesota by 21 points as a 16.5-point underdog and now it is getting a touchdown less against a team that is on the same level as the Vikings. The Bills were pathetic in their first two games of the season against the Ravens and Chargers and while the victory may look impressive, it was not the overall domination and you may think. The Bills and Vikings both finished with 292 total yards so the offense was below average again and while the defense limited the yards, Buffalo did so by forcing three turnovers. Going back, the Bills are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The Green Bay loss at Washington is also playing into this line and it is time for the Packers to make a move. After the Bills, Green Bay has two more winnable games at Detroit and at home against San Francisco before facing the Rams and Patriots in back-to-back road games. Sitting at 1-1-1, the Packers could easily be 0-3 right now as they have been average on both sides of the ball but they catch an opponent in a horrible spot. It is up to the offensive line to protect Aaron Rodgers and eliminate a strong Bills pass rush. Rodgers has been elite when passing from a clean pocket this season and posted a passer rating of 117.2, sixth-best among quarterbacks. However, his rating plummets to 71.2 when facing pressure, 18th-best among quarterbacks through three games. This could be another breakout game similar to first game against the Bears in the second half. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, teams coming off a win as a two-touchdown or higher underdog have gone 4-15-2 ATS next time out. 9* (258) Green Bay Packers |
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09-30-18 | Lions v. Cowboys -2.5 | 24-26 | Loss | -130 | 44 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Sunday Afternoon Value Play. This is a matchup of strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness so something will have to give. The Lions have had a pretty solid offense (23.3 ppg) but a poor defense (29.3 ppg). The Cowboys have struggled on offense (13.7 ppg) but have had a rather stingy defense (17.7 ppg). Things are not good in Dallas right now as there are issues all over the offense including the quarterback, receivers and the offensive line. Dak Prescott has not thrown for over 170 yards in any game this season so far and only has two passing touchdowns on the year to go with two interceptions. While the Lions possess the No. passing defense in the NFL as far as yards go, they are No. 21 in opposing quarterback rating and No. 16 in ypa allowed so going off yards alone is not the way to look at it. They will not be able to flood the field with defensive backs like they are often inclined to do, because of Ezekiel Elliott's presence in the backfield. Elliott has been a lone bright spot for the offense and he is coming off his best game where he averaged 7.9 ypc against Seattle after a 4.6 ypc average through two weeks. He is tied with 49ers running back Matt Breida to lead the league at 274 yards and that is significant as the Lions gave up 138 to Breida to weeks ago. After a pair of losses to open the season, the Lions pulled off the upset last Sunday night over the Patriots giving a false sense of hope. This is not a great team and Detroit beat a team that has more problems than it does. It was a big game for Detroit and Matt Patricia to avoid falling to 0-3 and the new head coach certainly wanted to give it to his old club. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1983. 9* (260) Dallas Cowboys |
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 44 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Bears are back home following a scare in Arizona as they rallied from a 14-0 deficit to win 16-14. The defense was the story once again as they allowed 221 total yards and are now ranked No. 5 in total defense and No. 8 in scoring defense. The unit is second in the NFL in takeaways with eight and as we saw last Monday, Tampa Bay is prone to give it up and overall, the Buccaneers are ranked No. 25 in giveaways. The Buccaneers offense has been one of the big stories in the NFL but they have yet to face a defense like this and Chicago can take a script from Pittsburgh from last Monday night. In the first two games of the season, the Tampa Bay offense did not face a lot of pressure and it took advantage of that but last week, the Steelers applied a ton of pressure from their defensive front and some blitz packages. As great as Ryan Fitzpatrick has been, he looked flustered when he was under pressure and this Sunday will be even worse for him. This has been a horrible spot throughout his career as he has just one win in 18 tried coming off a loss when facing an above .500 team coming off a win. Chicago has a glaring weakness on offense and that is the passing game. Mitch Trubisky is ranked No. 26 in Total QBR but he gets a big break this week as he squares off against the worst passing defense in the NFL as Tampa Bay is allowing 363 ypg through the air. Facing Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger will do that but there are issues nonetheless and they are relying heavily on three rookies. This is the fourth game in the new system for the offense and we will continue to see improvements and this is the perfect week to get it jumpstarted. Head coach Matt Nagy said they will scale it back some but that does not mean it will be going vanilla. Going back, the Bears are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. 10* (264) Chicago Bears |
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09-30-18 | Texans +1.5 v. Colts | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 44 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our Sunday NFL Enforcer. The Colts are off to a 1-2 start following a loss in Philadelphia last week and come in as a slight favorite back home. While the Colts have looked like an improved team, especially on the defensive side of the ball, there are still concerns entering the Week Four matchup on Sunday. Andrew Luck has shown signs of his former self but he is still not 100 percent back and there are fears his shoulder is far from 100 percent after Jacoby Brissett was brought in last week to throw the ball for the 50-yard hail mary. Luck is ranked No. 13 in Total QBR. It does not help that the running game is non-existent as the Colts are averaging a mere 82.3 ypg which is No. 29 in the NFL. The Texans defense has not lived up to the hype yet this season as they are ranked No. 17 but J.J. Watt looks to be back into the groove and the rushing defense has been solid mainly because they have not allowed big plays. The passing defense has been solid as the Texans are ranked No. 12 and the Indianapolis offensive line is below average and it will be missing some pieces this week. According to Pro Football Focus, the Colts line is ranked No. 22 and the tackles have been the weakness, allowing 31 pressures through three games. The explosive Houston offense that appeared when Deshawn Watson entered the lineup last season has not been great but they are way above average and have the playmakers to compliment Watson. Houston is ranked No. 8 in total offense and Watson has thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games, the first time a Houston quarterback has done that since 2012. That is hard to ignore as it the fact the Colts are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.2 percent of their passes. Here, we play on road teams averaging 265 passing ypg and allowing 7.0 or more passing ypa in two straight games going up teams allowing 230-265 ypg passing. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (253) Houston Texans |