Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-12-15 | Milwaukee Bucks +7.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Indiana is playing its best basketball of the season which has come at the right time as it looks to keep moving up in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers have won six straight games and going back further, they are 12-2 over their last 14 games to sneak into seventh place in the conference. However, the run has helped us in going against them as this liner is inflated and we can show that by looking at their last game where they were favored by 8.5 points against Orlando and are now favored by just one point less against a team that is 14 games better than the Magic. The Bucks defeated Orlando last night and they hit the road to try and halt a six-game road losing streak which is also helping with the value. The Bucks are four games clear of Indiana for sixth place which makes this a big game for both sides. Here, we play against home favorites in a game involving two teams with a scoring differential of +/- 3 ppg, after a win by 15 points or more. This situation is 72-36 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Milwaukee is 16-7 ATS in road games revenging a loss this season. 10* (501) Milwaukee Bucks |
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03-11-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Phoenix Suns -3.5 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Phoenix is on the outside looking in at the playoff situation in the Western Conference as it trails Oklahoma City and New Orleans by three games with the season winding down. The Suns have been up and down since the trade deadline and most recently, are coming off a loss against the Warriors on Monday at home but this is the type of game where they need to hold serve at home. The last meeting here in January, Phoenix failed to cover but it won by 11 points as a 13.5-point favorite which shows the value this time around in being able to buy a team low. Minnesota is the worst team in the Western Conference and possesses the worst road record at 5-24 including losses in eight of its last nine games with all of those defeats coming by more than what it is getting tonight. The Suns arte part of a great situation where we play on teams after two straight losses by 10 points or more going against an opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (716) Phoenix Suns |
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03-11-15 | Chicago Bulls -5.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | Top | 104-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Chicago has lost its lead in the Central Division as a one game lead has turned into a 1.5-game deficit behind Cleveland. The Bulls have dropped three straight games but while things have not gone good of late, they remain one of the best road teams in the league as their 19-12 road record is fifth best in the NBA and second best in the Eastern Conference. This is the start of a three-game swing that concludes in Charlotte and Oklahoma City so this one is imperative. The Sixers are off an upset win over Atlanta in their last game but that was all the way back on Saturday so any momentum gained from that has been lost. Playing with a lot of rest has been an issue all season anyway as Philadelphia is 0-12 when playing with two or more days off while covering just one of those games. Since February started, Philadelphia has been a home underdog eight times and this is the lowest of them all including playing some teams that will not even be in the playoffs. While the Sixers have covered three straight in this series, they were double-digit underdogs in all of those including two games at home so we grab the value in this one tonight. 10* (701) Chicago Bulls |
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03-10-15 | Toronto Raptors +8 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
Toronto is sitting in third place in the Eastern Conference as it has been passed by Cleveland after sitting in that second spot for most of the season. The Raptors are not playing good right now as they have dropped three straight games and eight of their last nine games following a four-game winning streak in early February which was also the ending of a 10-2 run. The defense has been the main culprit as Toronto has allowed 105.2 ppg during this nine-game stretch so facing a hot offense may not be what they want but the situation is giving us a good number because of it. The Spurs have won five straight games by averaging 111.2 ppg on 47.9 percent shooting. The offense is not as good as what has been on display recently while the Raptors defense is similarly not as bad as recent times. The Spurs haven't exactly been beating elite competition as the best win over this stretch came against either Chicago or Phoenix, two very depleted teams right now. Going back, the Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against team with a winning percentage above .600. Believe it or not, this is the biggest number Toronto has seen all season and it is 4-1 ATS in five games when getting five or more points. 10* (655) Toronto Raptors |
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03-10-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 201 | Top | 127-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Sometimes streaks come together with no particular rhyme nor reason and that is the case with the Dallas over/under run. The Mavericks have stayed under the total 11 straight games and it is not due to the defense being strong throughout or the offense struggling every game. It has been a mix of both but rarely has there been consistency as well as both occurring the same night. There has been at least 99 points score by one side in eight of those games and it is a mix of both sides as Dallas has tallied that on offense four times while allowing at least a century mark five times. Meanwhile Cleveland has stayed below the total in two straight games as it has scored 97 and 89 points over that stretch which is the first time since early January the Cavaliers have failed to score 100 points at least once in consecutive games and that was when LeBron James was out. Now we are catching a smaller than anticipated total with two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA as Cleveland is eighth and Dallas is fourth. While no over trends favor Dallas because of the recent run, the over is 5-1 in the Cavaliers last six road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* Over (657) Cleveland Cavaliers/(658) Dallas Mavericks |
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03-10-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Brooklyn Nets -3 | Top | 111-91 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
New Orleans is coming off a win last night in Milwaukee, its second straight victory following an upset of Memphis on Saturday. Going back, the Pelicans are 8-2 over their last 10 games which is keeping them in the hunt in the Western Conference. They are just a half-game out of eighth place but that team is Oklahoma City which will be a tough one to catch and seventh place is five games away so that is not a possibility. Not only is this a game being playing on no rest but this is the fourth game in five nights for the Pelicans which are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. Brooklyn is fighting in the Eastern Conference but its chances are dimming as it trails eighth place Charlotte by two and a half games with two teams in-between. After opening this homestand with an upset over Golden St., the Nets have dropped three straight winnable games so while the run isn't good, the situation takes precedence. For some reason, Brooklyn has a higher winning percentage against the Western Conference and a much better ATS winning percentage as well and going back, the Nets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. 10* (654) Brooklyn Nets |
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03-09-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns OVER 216 | Top | 98-80 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Two of the three highest scoring teams in the NBA square off tonight and while this total may seem high, we are getting a bargain. One look at the last meeting will show you the value as just over a month ago, a 225 over/under was posted so we are seeing a significantly lower number. That game stayed under by 32 points which was the second under in two meetings this season and that is helping with the value as is the recent runs on both sides. Golden St. has stayed under the total in its last three games while Phoenix has stayed under the total in its last two contests. The Warriors defense has been the reason of late as they have allowed just 93.3 ppg over the three-game stretch but those games were all at home where the defense has been a lot better than on the road. Phoenix allows the second most points in the NBA at home while it averages the third most points on offense at home. The over is 12-4 in the Suns last 16 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while the over is 17-9 in the Warriors 26 games this season as a single-digit favorite. 10* Over (713) Golden St. Warriors/(714) Phoenix Suns |
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03-09-15 | Washington Wizards +2 v. Charlotte Hornets | Top | 95-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
We lost yesterday playing against Charlotte as the Pistons blew a late lead by getting outscored 30-17 in the fourth quarter. The Hornets have won five straight games and currently have the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference locked down but they are just a game out of falling out of the playoff picture completely. This is their second five-game winning streak of the season for Charlotte which has not surpassed a streak of this kind in five years. Washington lost in Milwaukee on Saturday which made it eight losses over the last 10 games. The Wizards have failed to cover their last nine games but we are getting value because of it. Washington was favored the last time these teams played here last month but it is now the underdog and there is some revenge on the table as well. After winning the first meeting last season, the Wizards lost the final three meetings and they have dropped the first two this season so there is no doubt some added motivation. Bradley Beal was a late scratch Saturday for rest but he will be back in the lineup tonight. Charlotte is just 12-19 ATS at home this season and the Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (701) Washington Wizards |
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03-08-15 | Utah Jazz v. Brooklyn Nets -1.5 | Top | 95-88 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
We lost with Brooklyn Friday as the Nets blew a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter and then ended up losing in overtime. It was the second straight loss for them but I believe it may have served as a wakeup call as a team that is fighting for the playoffs has no business losing a game like that as well as getting blown out by Charlotte by 24 points after coming off back-to-back wins against Dallas and Golden St. Speaking of blowouts, the Nets suffered one of their worst losses of the season at Utah back in January as they were thumped by 35 points. Utah has been playing well on this roadtrip and going further back as it is 2-1 on the trek with the lone loss coming by a point and it is 7-3 over its last 10 games, its best 10-game stretch of the season. The Jazz are just 7-17 following a win this season and winning consecutive road games has been a challenge as they are 1-6 this season in road games following a road win in their last game. Brooklyn has covered four of its last five games following a loss and the Nets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (806) Brooklyn Nets |
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03-08-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Detroit Pistons -1 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Detroit is back home following a three-game roadtrip where it lost all three games to add to its losing skid which has now reached five games. The Pistons are now four and a half games back in the Eastern Conference playoff race and this is a big game considering they head back out on the road for a four-game west coast roadtrip starting on Tuesday. Despite being 15 games under .500, they are getting outscored by only 1.5 ppg overall which is also the same scoring differential they have been outscored by at home. They are 7-5 in their last 12 home games with two of those losses coming against Cleveland and another against San Antonio. One team they are chasing is Charlotte which has won four straight games following a 1-6 stretch. The Hornets have been a streaky team all season and while they have done well against the number as underdogs, they have won only half of those games outright and with the low number here, a Detroit win likely means a cover as well. The Pistons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss while the Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. 10* (810) Detroit Pistons |
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03-08-15 | Chicago Bulls +9.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
After struggling throughout the start of their rodeo roadtrip, the Spurs responded with wins in the last two games and have since won their last two games, making it a four-game winning streak which is their first since mid-January. While they have seemed to turn the corner, I'm not as impressed as others may be with this streak as two wins came over 21-40 Sacramento, another over 22-41 Denver and the last coming against Phoenix which is struggling. San Antonio is 15 games over .500 but Chicago is as well and despite two of its stars missing, this is still a very strong team as not many NBA teams could endure the losses. We won with Chicago Thursday as it defeated Oklahoma City but it was clearly in letdown mode the next night as it was destroyed at Indiana by 14 points. That alone will provide enough motivation to keep the Bulls focused here as they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss while going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. The Spurs have dropped five straight games against the number against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and on the season they are just 9-18 ATS against teams with a winning record. 10* (801) Chicago Bulls |
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03-07-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Philadelphia 76ers +10 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
The Hawks will find themselves in a very difficult spot tonight as they are laying double-digits on the road following a big win last night against Cleveland, cementing their cause as the best team in the Eastern Conference. That brings in a huge letdown possibility for Saturday which makes covering a big number on the highway will be a difficult task to accomplish. They have been killing it in every aspect of betting this season as Atlanta has the best overall ATS record in the league including the best road ATS record as well but a lot of that came during its historic winning streak as the Hawks are 7-9-1 ATS over their last 17 games as the linesmakers have caught up. The Sixers continue to play hard despite having a starting lineup with names a casual fan would not even recognize. After a couple blowout losses to start the month, Philadelphia took the Thunder to overtime on the road and played a good game against Utah last night and it could have been better if not for Jason Richardson going 0-10 from the field. The Sixers have done very well playing with no rest and on the season, they are 11-4 ATS at home against teams with a winning record including a 9-1 ATS record as a double-digit home underdog. 10* (506) Philadelphia 76ers |
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03-07-15 | Indiana Pacers v. New York Knicks OVER 189.5 | Top | 92-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Indiana and New York meet for the second time in four days and while New York will out to seek revenge following a 23-point loss in Indiana, we see some excellent value with the total as the situation is heavily in our favor. The Pacers have played a game in-between the two meetings as they faced the Bulls last night and came away with a big home victory as the defense once again put forth an outstanding effort. The Pacers allowed an average of 81.5 ppg during their four-game homestand, all of which resulted in wins and the under cashing. Now Indiana hits the road where the over has been cashing plenty of tickets, 22 of 31 to be exact, the highest road over percentage in the NBA. Playing with no rest also helps the cause as the defense is unit that gets fatigued. The Knick have been off since that last meeting but even with the rest, the defense will not be any better off as they are allowing 111.4 ppg over their last five games. The offense has been hot and cold but playing a tired Pacers defense will help. New York had gone over in its previous four games before Wednesday and on the other side, the over is 9-4 in the Pacers last 13 games playing on no days rest. 10* Over (507) Indiana Pacers/(508) New York Knicks |
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03-06-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Brooklyn Nets -2.5 | Top | 108-100 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Brooklyn has been on the wrong end of some lopsided games this season and one took place last timer out. After upsetting Golden St. on Monday, the Nets laid an egg in their game on Wednesday at home against Charlotte, losing by 24 points. To their credit, they have done a good job for the most part of recovering from these losses and I expect that tonight. The Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 100 or more points while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. While Phoenix is coming off a win in its last game against Orlando, it has struggled for the most part since the trade deadline, going 3-5. the Suns are still in the hunt in the Western Conference as they are two games behind Oklahoma City for the eighth spot but this is not a good spot or a good number. Brooklyn is 7.5 games better than Orlando yet it is laying a very reasonable number tonight as the spread differential is not big enough. The Suns are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a victory and add to that, the Suns travel to Cleveland tomorrow night in a definite lookahead situation. 10* (810) Brooklyn Nets |
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03-06-15 | Boston Celtics v. New Orleans Pelicans OVER 200.5 | Top | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
We played on Boston Wednesday and while that resulted in a push, the low scoring outcome sent the Celtics into their third straight game that has gone under the total. This is definitely a rarity as Boston has not had many long streaks of low scoring games and on the season, this is just the third three-game under run and overall, the Celtics are 7-3 to the over following two or more consecutive unders. Boston is one of only four teams in the NBA that are averaging 100 or more possessions in their games and the lone team from the Eastern Conference to do so. That gives them more opportunities on both ends of the floor. New Orleans is also riding a three-game under streak following four consecutive overs. The offense have been held in check for the most part during this recent run but should get going again against a poor Boston defense. While the Pelicans are not a fast paced team, they are one of only seven teams in the league whose offensive and defensive combined shooting percentages are more than 91 percent. The over is 7-2 in the Celtics last nine games following a win while the over is 17-4 in the Pelicans last 21 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* Over (819) Boston Celtics/(820) New Orleans Pelicans |
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03-06-15 | Miami Heat v. Washington Wizards -4 | Top | 97-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
It has been a recent struggle for Washington but the schedule has not been on its side. The Wizards have dropped seven of their last eight games which has dropped them all the way down to fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings and they are only two games up on Milwaukee for sixth place. Five of the eight games have been on the road, all resulting in losses, and while Washington is just 1-2 at home over this stretch, those losses were against Cleveland and Golden St. Because the Wizards have dropped seven straight games against the number, they are getting a very fair price tonight as they look to build upon their 21-10 home record. The Heat are coming off a Wednesday win over the Lakers, their second straight win but winning three in a row will be a challenge as they have done that only once this season and are 1-6 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS in their previous seven games following consecutive victories. Miami is one of just three teams that has more wins on the road than at home but it is still under .500 and is 9-14 as an underdog. Overall, the Heat are 8-18 straight up and 5-18-3 ATS following a win this season. 10* (818) Washington Wizards |
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03-05-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Chicago Bulls +3 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
The Bulls complete their seven-game homestand tonight as they host Oklahoma City in looking to finish 5-2 after winning four of the first six games. Chicago has won eight of its last 11 games overall but still comes in as the underdog here despite the Thunder missing their best player. This is due to the fact that Chicago is missing two of its best players but as mentioned in the most recent writeup on Tuesday, there is still a lot of talent on this team to make up for it. The Bulls have been home underdogs four times since January 22nd and have won three of those outright. The Thunder were hoping for a breather last night against the Sixers but they got much more than that as Philadelphia gave them all they had, eventually losing in overtime. Oklahoma City has had its share of struggles on the road this season but to its credit, a lot of that was early on when both stars were out. However, they were underdogs most of the time anyway and as road favorites, they are just 7-9 ATS and they are 5-11 ATS this season on the road against winning teams. Chicago will be out to break a five-game losing skid against the Thunder and as a result, add to its 8-3 ATS run against teams with a winning record. 10* (502) Chicago Bulls |
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03-04-15 | Milwaukee Bucks +13.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Milwaukee has dropped its first three games of this four-game roadtrip including two losses as a favorite, most recently last night in Denver. I think that ended up being a tougher spot than expected when the Nuggets fired head coach Brian Shaw and the players seemed to have gotten a jolt from that, snapping their six-game losing streak. The Bucks remain in sixth place in the Eastern Conference and are just a game and half behind Washington for fifth place so these losses have been big and while not many will be giving them a chance tonight, this line is inflated. The Warriors are back home following a 3-3 roadtrip and this is just their second home game after playing 10 of their last 11 games on the highway. Golden St. has the best home record in the NBA at 24-2 but it is paying for it with a double-digit spread now more often than not. The Bucks have been very competitive when getting doubles as they are 4-1 ATS, covering against the Cavaliers, Clippers, Blazers and Spurs. Even though this roadtrip has been unkind, Milwaukee is 19-7 ATS following a loss, winning 17 of those outright. Surprisingly, the Warriors are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (725) Milwaukee Bucks |
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03-04-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Miami Heat UNDER 199 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Over half of Wednesday's NBA games were off the board until late morning with this being one of those. Goran Dragic is questionable for Miami tonight with a back injury while Nick young is questionable for Los Angeles as he continues to nurse a knee injury and he will likely be out. Despite his absence over the last four games, the Lakers have gone over the total extending their streak to six games of surpassing the total. Four of these games have been at home however and the road has much more of a place where lower scoring games have occurred as prior to the most recent two, the Lakers were 11-2-1 to the under in their previous 14 games on the highway. Miami went over the total in its last game as it put up 115 points against Phoenix but it has been rare for the Heat to put together consecutive strong offensive games as after scoring 100 or more points, they have failed to reach the century mark in the next game 10 straight times, averaging just 88 ppg. Going back, the under is 14-4 in the Heat's last 18 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Meanwhile, the under is 4-0 in the Lakers last four games playing on 0 days rest. 10* Under (715) Los Angeles Lakers/(716) Miami Heat |
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03-04-15 | Utah Jazz v. Boston Celtics -1 | Top | 84-85 | Push | 0 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
We played against Utah last night which ended up being a horrible call as the Jazz went into Memphis, second in the Western Conference, won by 11 points and covering by 18. It was their third straight win and going back, their seventh win over their last nine games. While Utah has been playing over its head right now, I expect a letdown tonight following last night's victory and it is heading to Boston at the wrong time. Boston is coming off a shellacking in Cleveland last night as it lost by 31 points in a game it trailed by as many as 44 points. Prior to last night, the Celtics were playing well also as they had won seven of their last 11 games, while going 9-2 ATS which shows even higher competitiveness. After a 2-8 start at home, Boston is 12-8 over its last home games and has covered six straight. Utah is 1-5 this season in six road games that immediately followed a road win, not necessarily playing with no rest. Which brings up another scenario as the Jazz are 2-4 straight up and ATS in the second of back-to-back road games with no rest. Boston meanwhile is 8-2-1 ATS with no rest this season. 10* (706) Boston Celtics |
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03-03-15 | Utah Jazz v. Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 | Top | 93-82 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Memphis is the top consensus play in the NBA tonight but the public isn't always wrong as I feel the Grizzlies deserve the nod and are in a great spot to do some damage. They are coming off a win at Minnesota on Saturday but it was far from a good effort as they won by just four points after blowing a 15-point lead. That came right after getting blown out at home against the Clippers the previous night which was just their sixth home ,loss of the season so Memphis will be out to make up for that mess. The Grizzlies have failed to cover three straight games which triggers the play on value. Utah continues to play solid basketball as it has won two straight, four of five and six of its last eight games while going 6-1-1 over that stretch. The last time the Jazz lost by double-digits happened to come against Memphis ten games back which also shows us why we have that value tonight. Utah was getting 6.5 points art home and now is getting only one more point on the road where there should be an eight-point swing based on venue change. We will take advantage of that tonight. 10* (508) Memphis Grizzlies |
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03-03-15 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls OVER 185.5 | Top | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This number was released late due the injuries on the Chicago side but we already knew the status of the players involved so withholding it made no sense. The Bulls are without a lot of offense and its recent history is giving us a lot of value with the over tonight. Chicago has stayed under the total in four straight games and only one of those even came close to the posted number as the offense has struggled while the defense has held its own. This is the first game that Jimmy Butler will not start since being diagnosed with a sprained elbow and while his offense will be missed, so will his defense and there is plenty around to make up for his missing offense. Washington meanwhile has gone under the total in three straight games but the offense has been more productive going forward. Overall, the Wizards are averaging 98.7 ppg on 46.6 percent shooting, the latter being tied for third best in the NBA. The over is 7-1 in the Wizards last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. I expect their offense to continue to improve while the Bulls will find a way to fill the pieces and send this one over. 10* Over (509) Washington Wizards/(510) Chicago Bulls |
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03-02-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Brooklyn Nets +6 | Top | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Golden St. finishes up its roadtrip tonight in Brooklyn and also brings an end to a brutal stretch of games that goes back to early February. This is the end of the recent six-game roadtrip while also closing out a stretch of 10 of the last 11 games being on the road so the Warriors wanting to head home is an understatement as 10 of the next 12 games are at Oracle Arena. This is also the fourth game in five nights following an improbable comeback against Boston last night where Golden St. overcame a 26-point deficit to pull off the victory. It is the just the opposite for the Nets as they return home following a rugged eight-game roadtrip. They finished 3-5 but did come away with a much needed win over Dallas in the finale which kept them in a tie for eighth place in the Eastern Conference. 10 of their last 13 games have been on the road and while the home floor has been below average this season, Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a lengthy roadtrip of seven or more days while going 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Warriors meanwhile are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (706) Brooklyn Nets |
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03-01-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Houston Rockets OVER 207.5 | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the injury report on the Cleveland side but there are no questionable statuses for key players. We played the Cavaliers/Pacers over on Friday but we got dealt some unfortunate luck as both LeBron James and Kyrie Irvine were late scratches and while Irvine will not play here, James is back. The offense managed only 86 points without them which broke a four-game streak of scoring at least 100 points. While the defense did hold Indiana to 93 points, the Cavaliers are allowing 100 ppg on the road on 46.2 percent shooting, the latter being the fourth highest in the NBA. While Cleveland has gone under the total in four straight games, Houston has stayed below the number in its last two games and five of its last six. The offense has done its part though on this homestand, averaging 105.8 ppg through the first four games and I expect the success to continue. The first meeting this season stayed under the total but that was by just a half-point and going back, the over is 5-2 in the Cavaliers last seven road games against teams with a winning home record while the over is 8-3 in the Rockets last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Over (813) Cleveland Cavaliers/(814) Houston Rockets |
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02-28-15 | Milwaukee Bucks +3.5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Milwaukee is getting three points in a game that arguably should be a pickem based on power ratings and the last meeting. The Bucks were upset at home as an eight-point favorite by the Jazz last month and now they hit the road with a swing of 11 points since that meeting which is too much of an adjustment. Milwaukee is coming off a loss last night in Los Angeles against the Lakers and while the bounceback aspect is a strong one, the fact that the Bucks were favored by 6.5 points against a team that is just six game worse shows additional line value with the line differential here. Utah is definitely playing well as it has won five of its last seven games including a victory last night in Denver by 22 points. The Jazz have been terrible in following wins up this season however as they have won just five times in their 21 games following a victory and they are catching Milwaukee at a very bad time. The fact that Milwaukee has not covered here in 12 years seals the deal. 10* (511) Milwaukee Bucks |
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02-28-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 193 | Top | 101-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
We played the Grizzlies/Clippers over last night and a 33-point first quarter pretty much killed that call. Memphis ended up with just 79 points as it shot a mere 37.9 percent from the floor including 25 percent from long range but I expect a huge turnaround tonight. The Grizzlies have gone under the total in eight straight games which is affecting the number tonight not mention the fact that it is five points less than the total posted in the last meeting in Memphis three weeks ago. The Timberwolves are coming off a loss last night in Chicago as they were held to just 89 points but they were held to just 77 shot attempts and with both teams coming off a game last night, I expect the offense to be able to muster more. Minnesota has gone under in two straight games which is an anomaly from the defense that has allowed only 173 points combined in those two games. Overall, the Timberwolves are allowing 105.6 ppg on 48.5 percent shooting on the season, both of which are worst in the NBA. 10* Over (507) Memphis Grizzlies/(508) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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02-28-15 | Detroit Pistons v. Washington Wizards -3.5 | Top | 95-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a great spot and a great number for Washington which is in its worst losing skid of the season that reached six games last night following a loss in Philadelphia. While the Wizards have lost to some poor teams over this stretch, Philadelphia includes along with Minnesota and Detroit, it has also lost to arguably the top two teams in the NBA in Golden St. and Cleveland and both of those were at home. That loss against the Pistons means payback time and that game was just six days ago with the Wizards favored by two points on the road and now they are favored by not much more than that here at home. The Pistons are coming off an embarrassing loss last night as well as they lost against the woeful Knicks and while that normally could trigger a play on situation here, the fact that this is Detroit's first road game in 18 days negates that. While the fact Detroit has improved and is making a playoff run cannot be ignored, neither can the fact that it is 1-5 in its last six road games. 10* (502) Washington Wizards |
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02-27-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 198 | Top | 97-79 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The Clippers and Grizzlies met just four days ago and played a low scoring game that finished with just 177 points. That was the seventh straight under for Memphis while it was the second straight under for Los Angeles and all of this put together is giving us some great value on the over tonight as the total is four points or more less that what it was in that previous meeting. While these aren't two of the fastest teams in the NBA as far as pace goes, they make up for it in efficiency with the Clippers being number one and the Grizzlies number nine. This is a rare number for Los Angeles as this is the first time it has seen a total of less than 200 in close to a month, a span of 11 games. Memphis has seen more lower totals for sure and it has taken advantage by eclipsing the number more often than not when the total is below 200. we can call that last meeting an anomaly as in the eight previous meetings, at least one team has scored 100 points and I expect both to do it tonight. 10* Over (813) Los Angeles Clippers/(814) Memphis Grizzlies |
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02-27-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Chicago Bulls -6 | Top | 89-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
The loss of Derrick Rose is obviously a tough blow for Chicago but this is a very talented team still that can make up for that loss and move forward. Many are saying they are done because of Rose being gone and while he is a special player, his numbers are way down from what they used to be and now everyone can get back to work on a playoff run. The Bulls were routed by Charlotte at home in their first game without Rose as they were emotionally out of it but now is the time we can expect them to pull together. Minnesota meanwhile is playing its second game with Kevin Garnett with the first one being a very emotional one in Minnesota in his return to the team. I expect an opposite effect tonight in a huge letdown possibility and the Timberwolves are just 5-22 on the road. They have won just two of 10 games this season following a win and we are getting an exceptional line because of the Rose injury. Chicago has been favored by 7, 7 and 8 points the last three games and are favored by less against a team that is at least 10 games worse than all of those other three teams. 10* (820) Chicago Bulls |
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02-26-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Phoenix Suns +5 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Phoenix picked up a much needed victory last night as it defeated Denver on the road, snapping a five-game losing streak. Tonight's game is even bigger however as the Suns trail Oklahoma City by 2.5 games for the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference so this is a big swing contest. Phoenix moved back to two games over .500 with the victory and tonight marks only the third time that the Suns have been a home underdog, the last resulting in a one-point loss to Memphis, and this is the biggest spread of them all. Part of that is due to Oklahoma City being on a roll with seven straight wins and seven straight covers. The last three have come without Kevin Durant and while the Thunder have done well without him, those wins were against the Pacers, Nuggets and Hornets which are collectively 37 games under .500. In its 30 road games, Oklahoma City has played 15 games against teams with a winning record and is just 3-12 in those games. Going back, the Thunder are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Suns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a win of more than 10 points. 10* (504) Phoenix Suns |
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02-25-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 194.5 | Top | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
The Spurs are coming off a dismal offensive performance at Utah on Monday as they scored just 81 points on 40.5 percent shooting including going only 5-19 from long range. San Antonio has been held to 85 points or fewer on four other occasions this season and is has come back with much better efficiency in its next game, averaging 101 ppg. The Spurs have gone under the total in two straight games and six of their last seven which is keeping this number down lower than it should be. Portland meanwhile has stayed below the number in its last three games but two of those games were against Utah and Memphis, two of the seven slowest teams in the NBA averaging 93.6 and 96.6 possessions per game respectively. The offense will get a big boost with LaMarcus Aldridge back in the lineup after missing the last game. The over is 6-2 in the Spurs last eight games against teams with a winning record while the over is also 6-2 in the Blazers last eight games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (723) San Antonio Spurs/(724) Portland Trailblazers |
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02-25-15 | Miami Heat v. Orlando Magic UNDER 198.5 | Top | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
After opening the season by staying under the total in 32 of its first 50 games, Miami has played five straight games with the over coming in. The total tonight has been adjusted because of it as the Heat are seeing their biggest total in over a month, a span of 15 games. They put up 119 points last time out against the Sixers which is by far a season high and this was just the 15th times they have scored 100 or more points since early November. They followed that up with another 100-point performance only once while averaging a mere 85.5 ppg in those 14 games next time out. Orlando is coming off an over as well which coincidentally also came against the Sixers. That snapped a stretch of five straight unders with the offense going over 100 points only once and that took overtime to do so. The under is 12-4 in the Heat's last 16 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game while the under is 11-5 in the Magic's last 16 games following a win. 10* Under (701) Miami Heat/(702) Orlando Magic |
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02-24-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Detroit Pistons OVER 203.5 | Top | 102-93 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Cleveland had gone over the total in five straight games prior to Sunday as it stayed below the number against the Knicks. Now the Cavaliers close out their four-game roadtrip in Detroit with another great opportunity for a high scoring game. The Cleveland offense is playing at a high level right now as it is averaging 108.6 ppg since suffering a six-game losing streak in mid-January, a span of 18 games. In those games, the Cavaliers failed to hit the century mark only four times but still managed 97, 98 and 99 points twice. The Pistons won't be considered to have the most efficient offense in the league but since scoring a mere 69 points against the Sixers to end January, they are averaging 103.2 ppg in February over nine games. They are 3-0-1 to the under over their last four games which is keeping this total lower than it should be. The over is 5-2 in the Pistons last seven home games against teams with a winning road record while the over is 5-1 in Cleveland's last six games overall. 10* Over (503) Cleveland Cavaliers/(504) Detroit Pistons |
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02-23-15 | San Antonio Spurs -5.5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 81-90 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Typically we are not an advocate of road chalk but when the situation calls for it, we will jump on it. The Spurs have come out of the break with a pair of losses at Golden St. and Los Angeles but this is a chance to get right before having to travel to face another tough opponent at Portland on Tuesday. We are getting some serious line value here as the fact that four days ago, the Spurs were favored by 2.5 points at the Clippers and now are favored by just three points more against a team that is 16 games worse. Utah won its lone game after the All Star break as it took care of Portland in a 16-point blowout win at home on Friday. The Jazz have won two straight home games but at 11-15 overall, they are well short of a dominant home court advantage. Utah has won just four of 19 games following a win this season and it has yet to win three straight home game on the season. Additionally, the Jazz are just 4-30 this season when allowing 97 or more points and the Spurs are averaging 102.8 ppg in their last 18 games after scoring fewer than 100 points. 10* (709) San Antonio Spurs |
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02-23-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Miami Heat UNDER 191.5 | Top | 108-119 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Miami has gone over the total in four straight games which is certainly a rarity as the Heat had gone under the total in 32 of their first 50 games. It has been the mix of a poor defense and a potent offense over this recent stretch but keep in mind that Miami remains the slowest team in the NBA, averaging just 93 possessions per game so it takes hot shooting from either side to surpass the number. Philadelphia meanwhile has gone over the total in its two games since the break and now it is seeing its highest number of these three games overall. The Sixers are another team that has seen a majority of unders come in as they are 35-20 to the under with that 63.6 percent being the biggest percentage in the league. The numbers go up on both sides as Miami and Philadelphia are a combined 54-26 (67.5 percent) to the over when the total is 190 or higher. Additionally, the under is 21-7 in the Sixers last 28 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the under is 18-7 in the Heat's last 25 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Under (701) Philadelphia 76ers/(702) Miami Heat |
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02-22-15 | Charlotte Hornets +10.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 81-92 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
After putting together a 12-3 run, Charlotte has lost its last four games including a home loss against Oklahoma City on Friday to open the second half. The Hornets were hurt mostly on the glass in that one but now they face the worst rebounding team in the NBA so they won't have to worry about that tonight. Charlotte is just 9-15 on the road and 10-21 as an underdog but because the numbers are inflated so much, the Hornets are 15-9 ATS on the highway while going 18-13 ATS when getting points which are huge differentials based on line differentials. Dallas is coming off a win over Houston on Friday which followed up a loss against the Thunder to open the second half. The Mavericks are 18-9 at home but like the Hornets and inflated lines, they have covered just nine of those games. Charlotte is without Kemba Walker but the Mavericks will be without Chandler Parson so we can call that a wash. The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Mavericks are 0-4-2 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (813) Charlotte Hornets |
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02-22-15 | Washington Wizards v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 89-106 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
We backed the Pistons on Friday but now we will be going against them as they come in a shorter home underdog. Detroit was able to take out Chicago outright but as good as the value was in the line there, it has completely disappeared as the Pistons are roughly getting five points fewer against a team that is just a game and a half worse than the Bulls. As mentioned Friday, Detroit has one of the better records in the Eastern Conference since late December at 17-10 while Washington is just 13-14 but the situation trumps that today. The Wizards have lost four straight road game to drop to 13-13 on the highway this season which is a part of the line makeup while the loss on Friday at home against Cleveland by 38 points is also playing into it. That was a devastating defeat but that is the type of loss that will spark a team in its next game which I expect with Washington. Speaking of Cleveland, the Pistons have them on deck at home on Tuesday. Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after a win while Washington has won 10 of 13 games this season as a road favorite. 10* (805) Washington Wizards |
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02-21-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Houston Rockets -2.5 | Top | 76-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
While the rest of the NBA card features games involving notable injuries as well as many big name players playing with other teams, Toronto and Houston is the lone game where there will be no surprises. A big surprise from last night came from Toronto as it trounced the Hawks in Atlanta by 25 points thanks to a 56-35 second half advantage. Taking nothing away from what it has accomplished but Toronto has played the third easiest schedule in the NBA Pounding the best team in the Eastern Conference provides an immediate letdown opportunity while on the other side, Houston looks to bounceback from a poor effort in Dallas last night. The Rockers fell to the Mavericks by 11 points in a game that was not even as close as that as they trailed by 20 points late in the second half. The Rockets are now back home where they are 18-8 on the season including wins in eight of their last 10 games. We are getting a solid price and Houston has been awesome in this situation this season, going 13-4 straight up and ATS following a loss while going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss. 10* (508) Houston Rockets |
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02-20-15 | Boston Celtics v. Sacramento Kings -3 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
A new chapter begins in Sacramento with George Karl the new head coach and while it may take some time to bring the franchise back to a winner, I expect it to start out pretty strong the first game after the break. While the Kings were active in trades on Thursday, the core of the team is intact and a new successful voice is what this team needs following a poor ending to the first half that two coaches come and go. The Kings are just 11-17 at home but they are in a good spot here, especially with heading back out on the road to play the Clippers Saturday night. Boston played pretty well prior to the break as it won four of its last five games while covering the spread in all of those. This included a win against Atlanta to close things out but only one of those wins came on the road and that was against the lowly Knicks. The Celtics are just 8-16 on the road and this is not where they have thrived as they are 15-5 ATS as underdogs of six or more points but just 4-8 ATS as underdogs less than that. 10* (822) Sacramento Kings |
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02-20-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Detroit Pistons +6 | Top | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Despite a horrendous start to the season and sitting 12 games under .500, the Pistons are very much alive for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They are just two games out of the eighth and final playoff spot and while the likelihood of advancing out of the first round are very slim, it would be a huge achievement. After starting the season 5-23, Detroit is a very respectable 16-10 over its last 26 games which is actually one of the best records in the Eastern Conference. The acquisition of Reggie Jackson from Oklahoma City shows they are going for it. Chicago has won four straight games but the extended time off may hurt that momentum and going back, the Bulls are just 14-11 over the same timeframe of the Pistons streak. They have been a very good road team this season but they are just .500 against the number as a road favorite. Going back before the break, the Pistons are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss while the Bulls are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. 10* (818) Detroit Pistons |
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02-19-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 202.5 | Top | 115-119 | Win | 100 | 32 h 39 m | Show |
We played the under in the Clippers last game before the All-Star break but we will go the opposite Thursday as we are seeing a good amount of value in the over. Los Angeles had gone over the total in three straight games prior to that and all of those were some big numbers. As a matter of fact, this is the lowest total the Clippers have seen in eight straight games. The Spurs went under the total in their final four games before the break as their defense really rose to the occasion. They will find the going a lot tougher here against a Los Angeles team averaging 107.1 ppg on 47.6 percent shooting at home. Last year, the over was 13-6-1 the first two days after the break after going 12-8 to the over two years ago and this has been a pretty common theme as the time off has helped the offenses. The over is 6-1 in the Spurs last seven games against teams with a winning record while the over is 6-1 in the Clippers last seven games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (503) San Antonio Spurs/Los Angeles Clippers |
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02-11-15 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 213 | Top | 95-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
The Rockets are coming off a win last night in Phoenix, but more importantly, it was the third straight game that went over the total which provides us with some contrarian value for tonight. Houston has been a team that has gone over the total on the road in seven of its last nine games but two of those games were against Phoenix and the other against Golden St., the top fastest teams in the NBA with 101.2 and 102.5 possessions per game respectively. The Clippers are no where near that as they average 97.3 possessions per game which is 18th in the league and they are finally back home following a lengthy roadtrip of eight games covering 14 days. They too have gone over the total is three straight games following a 6-1 under run and at home. Los Angeles has stayed below the number in nine of its last 13 games. In those, the Clippers have had a total of 210 or higher seven times with six of those staying under. Additionally, the under is 11-5-1 in Clippers last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Under (723) Houston Rockets/(724) Los Angeles Clippers |
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02-11-15 | Utah Jazz v. Dallas Mavericks -3.5 | Top | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
We are catching a very good number with Dallas due to the Mavericks possessing some key injuries so the break comes at a good time. Dallas will be without point guard Rajon Rondo, leading rebounder Tyson Chandler and leading scorer Monta Ellis and while they are certainly some key injuries, unlike college basketball, other professional players step up in these situations. The Mavericks were blown out at home against the Clippers in their last game as they lost both Ellis and Chandler early in the first quarter but now there has been time to prepare for their absences. Utah has been playing very well leading into the break as it has won two straight games but has been competitive for a lot longer, going 7-3 ATS over its last 10 games. The Jazz are coming off an upset win over New Orleans last time out but they are just 4-14 this season following a victory while the Mavericks are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games following a loss of more than 10 points. We will grab the home value tonight. 10* (720) Dallas Mavericks |
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02-10-15 | Brooklyn Nets +11.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 86-95 | Win | 102 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Brooklyn can't seem to figure things out. After losing two straight games by 39 and 35 points and then falling to two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, the Nets got Deron Williams back and went on to win three in a row. Since then however, they lost another game in blowout fashion, by 37 points at Washington and are coming off a loss last night in Milwaukee. They have not failed to cover three straight and we are backing them for that reason as we are getting solid value in Brooklyn's final game prior to the break. We rode Memphis Sunday to a victory over Atlanta as it used an 8-2 run to close the game. The Grizzlies could be in letdown mode after that after its ninth win over its last 10 games and they have a game at Oklahoma City tomorrow night in their final game before the break which could turn into a lookahead situation as well. Brooklyn is cashing at a 60 percent clip as a road underdog this season while going 4-0 ATS in its last four games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (503) Brooklyn Nets |
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02-09-15 | Los Angeles Clippers +9 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 115-98 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
The Clippers lost their fourth straight game on Sunday to fall 8.5 games behind Golden St. in the Pacific Division and they now sit in sixth place in the Western Conference. They are only 2.5 games away from third place and while the losing streak isn't bad enough, Los Angeles will be without the services of Blake Griffin for an indefinite period of time. We will be backing them tonight however as they close this eight-game roadtrip before heading home on Wednesday in the final game before the break. Even with Griffin out, this line is very favorable as Dallas is coming off a win against Portland on Saturday in overtime, its second straight victory. The Mavericks are 16-8 at home but those 16 home wins are tied for the fewest in the Western Conference for teams currently in playoff slots so they have not been dominant and really have no business laying this sort of number. Dallas is 8-14-2 ATS as a home favorite this season and the Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (715) Los Angeles Clippers |
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02-08-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 88-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
The Hawks incredible run continued on Friday as it took out the best team in the Western Conference and now will be out to beat the second best team in the conference. Atlanta beat Golden St. by eight points to make it two straight wins but more impressively, it improved to 21-1 over its last 22 games and 35-3 over its last 38 games. Those records are hard to argue but with that comes a bulls-eye on the back and Memphis will no doubt be ready for the challenge on Sunday. The Grizzlies lost at Minnesota on Friday by a point which snapped their eight-game winning streak and they now trail the Warriors by 3.5 games in the Western Conference, Part of the huge Atlanta run was a victory over Memphis last month by 10 points which is tied for the Grizzlies second biggest loss of the season so don't think they haven't forgotten. They will be up for the challenge as they have been in the past, going 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (806) Memphis Grizzlies |
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02-07-15 | Boston Celtics v. Milwaukee Bucks -6 | Top | 93-96 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
The Celtics are off a win last night which made it three straight victories but victories over the Knicks and Sixers are nothing to brag about nor is a win over Denver which has dumped five straight games. Give credit to Boston for continuing to play hard despite knowing it is a rebuilding season and the fact that management continues to keep that going into the season, most notably the Rajon Rondo trade. The Celtics are 8-15 on the road and Boston's last road game against a team with a pulse, albeit a faint one, was at Utah and the Celtics were getting seven points and now they are getting fewer points against a much better team. They head to Milwaukee at a bad time as the Bucks are coming off a loss last night in Houston which snapped their five-game winning streak. Milwaukee has been the best team in the NBA following a loss as it is 18-4 ATS coming off a defeat and it is now still just three games back in the Central Division. This season, the Bucks are 19-6 against teams ranked outside the NBA top 16 while the Celtics are 4-21 against teams inside that ranking. 10* (512) Milwaukee Bucks |
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02-06-15 | New York Knicks +7 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Since breaking their 16-game losing streak, the Knicks are in the midst of their best stretch of the season as they are 5-3 over their last eight games despite coming off a loss last time out against the Celtics. New York has not been good on the road this season which is stating the obvious but despite a .130 winning percentage, it has covered half of those games while going 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. To say this line is inflated would be an understatement as Brooklyn is not only laying points for the first time since January 9th but is laying this many points for just the sixth time all season. The Nets have been underdogs for 12 straight games and prior to that, they failed to cover their last four games when favored. Granted, they did face some tough teams along the way and while this may be considered a breather alert, that is actually in our favor especially with a revenge game at Washington tomorrow. The Knicks will be out to avenge two losses against the Nets earlier this season which are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win of more than 10 points. 10* (801) New York Knicks |
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02-06-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Orlando Magic -3 | Top | 97-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Following a 10-game losing streak, the Orlando brass had seen enough and fired head coach Jacque Vaughn on Thursday. Assistant James Borrego takes over on an interim basis and we will back the Magic in this very strong in season angle that favors teams playing their first game with their new head coach as it gives the players a greater sense of urgency. Orlando has actually played pretty decent over its last two games, holding its own with Oklahoma City and San Antonio on the road before losing each game by seven points. The Magic have lost their last five home games and failed to cover any of those but all of those games were against teams that are guaranteed to be in the playoffs or in the hunt at the very least. The Lakers are not one of those teams. They are just a game and a half better than Orlando and while playing the league's toughest schedule hasn't helped, Orlando has played the leagues fifth toughest slate and second toughest in the Eastern Conference. The Magic will also be looking for some payback after losing in Los Angeles by 27 points four weeks ago and the Lakers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (806) Orlando Magic |
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02-06-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Toronto Raptors OVER 210 | Top | 107-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
We lost with the Clippers/Cavaliers over last night as a 42-point fourth quarter did us in not to mention the fact it took Los Angeles over three quarters to get its offense going. It has been a rough five-game stretch as the Clippers have averaged just 99.2 ppg on 44.6 percent shooting and the last two games have been big reasons for losing. They have shot just 44.4 percent against Brooklyn and Cleveland but they now get to face a Raptors defense that has allowed 106.2 ppg on 46.9 percent shooting the last five games. Toronto has stayed under the total in its last two games as the offense has really fallen off, averaging just 84 ppg on 38.2 percent shooting. Last night we mentioned it is a good angle to play the over when teams have a combined shooting percentage of over 90 percent and that is the case again for both teams as the Clippers are at 92.3 percent while the Raptors are at 91.7 percent. The Clippers have gone over the total in eight of 12 games when playing with no rest including five of six in the second of back-to-back road games while the over is 10-2 in the Raptors last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* Over (807) Los Angeles Clippers/(808) Toronto Raptors |
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02-05-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 207 | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
We have a great situation tonight in what has the potential to be a very high scoring game. We saw it in the first meeting this season between the Clippers and Cavaliers as 247 points scored in Los Angeles less than three weeks ago. The situation is even better this time around as both teams have been by under runs but the home and road splits dictate a lot of offense. The combined field goal percentage for the Clippers on the road is 93.1 percent while the combined field goal percentage for the Cavaliers at home is 93.9 percent and anytime you can get two teams over a combined 90 percent, it is great for points and even more so in this case. Los Angeles has stayed under in two straight games as well as five of six while Cleveland has stayed under the total in six straight games as the defense has really picked things up. The last time they allows 100 points was the game against the Clippers as they have played some weak offenses since then. Los Angeles is 6-2 to the over this season when playing with two days rest while Cleveland is 4-2 to the over this season when playing with two days rest. 10* Over (503) Los Angeles Clippers/(504) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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02-05-15 | Washington Wizards +1.5 v. Charlotte Hornets | Top | 87-94 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
It has been a rough eight days for Washington as it lost at Phoenix last Wednesday which has sent the Wizards into a four-game spiral capped off with a loss at Atlanta last night. Going back further, they have dropped six of eight and most important for our purposes, they have dropped all eight of those games against the number. Washington has been close which doesn't help its backers but it shows it has been competitive as five of those spread losses were by just a possession. One of those defeats came at home on Monday against Charlotte and while I am not a fan of road revenge, the Wizards will be motivated for sure. The Hornets have won two straight games and since a five-game losing streak, they have won 11 of their last 14 games. This includes four straight wins at home but those were all against losing teams. On the season, Charlotte is 14-7 against teams outside the top 16 but just 7-20 against teams inside. Conversely, Washington is 21-4 against teams outside the top 16 and the Wizards have won eight of 12 games this season when playing with no rest. 10* (501) Washington Wizards |
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02-04-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -7.5 | Top | 109-93 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
It has been a very streaky five weeks for Toronto as it went through a 3-8 stretch before winning six straight games to close out the month of January. February opened with a bad home loss against Milwaukee on Monday as the Raptors scored just 75 points on 32.1 percent shooting. They trailed by as many as 18 points while never leading and I expect them to come out with some fire tonight. Toronto's 75 points represent the squad's fewest since it had 74 in a loss to Portland on Dec. 10, 2012. We won with Brooklyn Monday as it upset the Clippers at home which snapped a four-game skid. The Nets have covered three in a row so we are going against that tonight as they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Toronto is 23-4 against teams with records below .500 but are just 10-12 against teams with winning records. 10* (704) Toronto Raptors |
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02-04-15 | Denver Nuggets +2.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Denver and Boston has opposite results last night as the Nuggets lost in Philadelphia while the Celtics were able to upend the Knicks on the road. For Denver, it was its third straight loss and they were all bad ones as the spread differential in the three games combined was 57.5 points and it wasn't competitive in any of those. The Nuggets are in a good spot to bounce back tonight however as despite the defeat last night, they have won the majority of games against teams with losing records. The victory for the Celtics snapped a three-game losing streak and they have had their share of issues at home. They have lost four straight while going 2-7 over their last nine home games following a three-game winning streak on their home floor in mid-December. Additionally, the Celtics are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a win of more than 10 points. 10* (707) Denver Nuggets |
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02-03-15 | Utah Jazz v. Portland Trail Blazers -8 | Top | 102-103 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Portland is back home following a three-game roadtrip and not a very good one at that. The Blazers dropped all three games although they were in reach in all three but they fell short to extend their road losing streak to six games. Facing red hot Cleveland and Atlanta to open the trip certainly didn't help matters but now they have a great chance to get back to winning and winning big as Portland is 20-5 at home with four of those losses coming against Golden St., Memphis, Los Angeles and Atlanta, which possess four of the six best records in the NBA. Utah has had quite a bit of time off at is last played on Friday, a home win over Golden St. but any momentum from that has been lost. This is the Jazz' first road game since January 22nd and while they have been better on the road of late, they are heading to Portland at a bad time. Utah has been terrible of keeping momentum going as it is 3-13 this season coming off a victory while covering just six of those 16 games. This is the first meeting this season between these two teams and after the Blazers won all four meetings last season, I expect them to start off the same way this year and reestablish their dominance. 10* (508) Portland Trailblazers |
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02-02-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Phoenix Suns +3 | Top | 102-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
We played on Phoenix eight days ago when it was a home underdog against the Clippers and was trounced by 20 points. That was the first and only time the Suns have been home underdogs this season, until now as they are catching a similar number in a very strong situation spot. Phoenix had its modest two-game winning streak snapped against Golden St. on Saturday as it lost by 19 points but the Warriors were on a two-game skid so that was not a good spot for the Suns to be in. Phoenix is seven games over .500 overall including a 15-9 record at home and looks to get back in the win column to keep a two-game lead in the Western Conference for the eighth playoff spot. The Grizzlies have the second best record in the conference thanks to a six-game winning streak that included five games at home. The last road game was a blowout win in Dallas to add to their three-game road winning streak but the other two wins came against the Magic and Nets. Overall, Memphis has been solid on the road but of its 14 road wins, 10 have come against teams with a losing record. The Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record while the Suns are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* (716) Phoenix Suns |
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02-02-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 | Top | 100-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
This is another game where the line was delayed in coming out and that was because of Pelicans center Anthony Davis/ He missed the last game due to a groin injury but New Orleans was still able to outrebound the Clippers 51-38 and pick up its fifth win over its last six games. The Pelicans are now three games over .500 on the season and while they are far the elite in the conference, they sit just two games out of the eighth and final playoff spot. The fact they are home underdogs here isn't overly surprising based on the opposition but this has been a solid spot all season as New Orleans is 4-1 as a home underdog with wins over Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston and Oklahoma City and the lone loss coming against Golden St. in overtime but that resulted in another cover. It seems like the Hawks have been at home forever and it definitely was a good long homestand as they are coming off seven straight home games with all of those being wins obviously which has added to their franchise record 19-game winning streak. Atlanta looks to match the 1970-71 Milwaukee Bucks for the league's fourth-longest run ever. Injuries are now a concern though as Thabo Sefolosha, DeMarre Carroll and Shelvin Mack are all out again tonight and the depth could finally catch up to the Hawks in its biggest road test in close to a month. 10* (710) New Orleans Pelicans |
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02-02-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Brooklyn Nets +9 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
There arte three home underdogs on the Monday card and we can make a case for all three as they are in great spots while also going against the contrarian public opinion. The Clippers/Nets line was a late release due to the status of Deron Williams and Joe Johnson but the situation for the Nets is ideal. Brooklyn has been stuck in reverse since the calendar turned to 2015 as it is 3-12 including losses in 12 of the last 14 games. One of those losses took place in Los Angeles and it was the biggest of them all as the Nets lost to the Clippers by 39 points so there is definitely going to be some motivation for payback tonight. Brooklyn has dropped seven straight games at home and for this reason they are catching the biggest home underdog number they have seen all season. The Clippers easy win less than two weeks ago against the Nets coupled with the fact they have a game at the Cavaliers on deck with have them on a motivational low tonight. The Nets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game while the Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing record. While an outright upset isn't out of the question, we will gladly grab the generous number here. 10* (708) Brooklyn Nets |
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02-01-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. New York Knicks -2.5 | Top | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
The Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season, which isn't saying a lot but they are still playing within their best run since opening 2-1. New York has won four of its last six games despite getting blown out at Indiana on Thursday but that defeat is in our favor on Sunday. After losing 12 straight games at home, the Knicks have won their last three at MSG and the Lakers will not bring much resistance to the road Sunday. Los Angeles has won just once over its last 10 games as it halted a nine-game losing streak with an upset win over Chicago on Thursday which avoided a franchise record in consecutive losses. The Lakers were pumped for that game to avoid the embarrassing record so getting up here will be difficult. This has been a very home dominated series as the host has won and covered six straight meetings which spells bad news for the Lakers which have dropped six straight and 10 of 11 on the highway and have failed to cover in any of their last five. Being favored has been rare for the Knicks but they have won their last three games in that role and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record. 10* (804) New York Knicks |
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01-31-15 | Houston Rockets v. Detroit Pistons +5 | Top | 101-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
The Rockets won last night in Boston which was their fourth straight win, three of which have been on the road. To their credit, they have been very strong when playing with no rest this season but this is a tougher spot than the other instances. Houston is 4-1 in the second of back-to-back road games with no rest but those four wins came against Utah, Sacramento, Miami and New York. While Detroit's record may compare to some of those teams, it has had a resurgent time following a 3-19 start as the Pistons are 14-11 over their last 25 games despite currently riding a four-game losing streak. If anything though, that should have the Pistons fired up as they are coming off an embarrassing effort against the Sixers where they scored a season low 69 points on a dismal 30.2 percent shooting including going 2-20 from long range. Additionally, they want to get the Rockets monkey off their back as they have dropped seven straight meetings in this series. We should see a big game from Pistons center Andre Drummond who was held in check in the last meeting in Detroit last season by Dwight Howard and is also coming off a poor game against the Sixers. Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss while winning six of its last eight home games outright with one of those losses coming against Atlanta by just three points. 10* (508) Detroit Pistons |
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01-30-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. New Orleans Pelicans OVER 200 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
The questionable status of Anthony Davis delayed this total and while he is a gametime decision, whether he goes or not is not a huge factor in the over/under. If he plays, he obviously helps the Pelicans offense but if he doesn't, it hurts the defense so it can be considered a wash. New Orleans had its four-game winning streak snapped with a loss against Denver on Wednesday and in the process, stayed under the total for a second straight game and eighth in its last nine contests. From a pace standpoint, the game against the Nuggets was not any slower than normal, it is just that the Pelicans could not buy many baskets as they shot just 39 percent from the floor including going only 3-15 from long range. The Clippers meanwhile have won six straight games with the last three staying under the total. The last game against Utah stayed well below no thanks to horrible long range shooting as the teams combined for 50 three-point shots with just 14 being made (28 percent). Both teams have been involved in some very high totals this season, especially the Clippers, and we are getting some decent value with this number tonight. This has been a high scoring series including the first meeting this season with 220 points being scored and I expect both teams to bounce back from their poor offensive efforts last time out. 10* Over (811) Los Angeles Clippers/(812) New Orleans Pelicans |
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01-30-15 | Portland Trail Blazers +7 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
By now, everyone knows about the winning streak that Atlanta is on and it is certainly impressive. However, it is not without its faults and while it is none of their own, it needs to be looked at. The Hawks had a very impressive three-game run back in early January where they defeated the Blazers, Clippers and Grizzlies in a span of five days but the schedule has been pretty lax since then. A victory against Oklahoma City exactly one week ago was the best win over the last 11 games and of those games, six wins were against five of the worst seven teams in the Eastern Conference and another was against the worst team in the Western Conference. Sure the Hawks have proved they can beat some of the best teams out west with a win against the Blazers already but that will provide Portland with some solid motivation. I am not a proponent of road revenge but this line shift from the last meeting is way too much as it is a 13-point swing. The Blazers have been struggling with losses in six of their last eight games and while a home loss against Boston is inexcusable, the other five losses came against four top teams from the Western Conference as well as one against the resurgent Cavaliers. Portland has been an underdog of six or more points only once this season and that resulted in a cover at Phoenix without LaMarcus Aldridge in the lineup. 10* (803) Portland Trailblazers |
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01-29-15 | Denver Nuggets v. Memphis Grizzlies -11 | Top | 69-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertain status of Grizzlies guard Mike Conley who has a wrist injury and missed the last game against Dallas. It didn't faze them however as they rolled to a big victory over the Mavericks to make it four straight wins and eight of their last nine. Memphis has the second best record in the Western Conference behind Golden St. and at 19-5, it possesses the fourth best home record in the NBA. The Grizzlies have games against Oklahoma City and Phoenix on Saturday and Monday so this is actually a big game to keep the momentum rolling. Getting up for the Nuggets typically wouldn't happen but in Memphis' case, it will be sky high. The Grizzlies traveled to Denver back on January 3rd and left with a 29-point loss, easily their worst defeat of the season. Payback will be at the forefront. Denver is coming off a win last night in New Orleans which snapped a seven-game losing streak but don't expect a winning streak to start as the Nuggets are not only in a bad revenge situation but this is their fourth game in five nights with travel taking place the last four days. Last night marked just the seventh road win of the season for the Nuggets and they come in just 4-14 against teams ranked in the top 10 while Memphis is 19-2 in 21 games against teams ranked outside the top 16. Blowout time in Memphis tonight. 10* (506) Memphis Grizzlies |
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01-28-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz OVER 199 | Top | 94-89 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
The Clippers have won five straight games and are now six games behind Golden St. in the Pacific Division. While they look to have an easy matchup tonight, we are more concerned about the total as this is the lowest number that Los Angeles has seen in a while. Since November 28th, only two games have had a total of 200 or less and those were against Miami and Indiana and while both did stay under the total, they stayed under by a combined 5.5 points so even those were close to hitting the number. The Clippers are 11-6-1 to the over in their 18 road games which is a much higher percentage than their 16-11 to the under record at home. Additionally, the over is 5-1 in the Clippers last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Utah is the reason this number is so low. The Jazz are also on a two-game under streak and going back, 14 of their last 18 games have stayed below the total. This is where the value comes into play as the majority of those games during the low scoring streak have come against poor offensive teams and the last time Utah had a total of at least 200, it was seven games back against Golden St. and that number easily went over. The over is 4-1 in Utah's last five home games against teams with a winning road record. This is the fourth and final meeting this season and we have seen the total drop each time with this being the lowest of the four games. 10* Over (719) Los Angeles Clippers/(720) Utah Jazz |
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01-28-15 | Brooklyn Nets +14 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
We played on Brooklyn Monday but the game was postponed due to the winter storm in the northeast but we are coming back with the Nets Wednesday for very similar reasons. After winning its first game of a three-game roadtrip out west, Brooklyn went on the get embarrassed in its last two games. The Nets lost at the Clippers by 39 points on Thursday and followed that up with a 35-point loss at Utah on Saturday. Being an ego-driven league, getting annihilated once usually gets a team fired up for its next game but two such losses should really have the blood boiling. Additionally, they will be out to make up for a 23-point home loss earlier this season. The Nets have held 28 teams below 100 points this season, tied with the Blazers and Hawks for the most in the league this season and 95 is the key number for the Nets as they are 16-5 this season when they score 95 or more points and 10-3 when they hold their opponent under 95 points. We all know the Hawks are playing exceptional basketball right now but the linesmakers aren't stupid as the numbers are getting the point of borderline ridiculous. The Hawks failed to cash against Minnesota laying 17 points, snapping their 15-game cover streak, and now they are laying just three points less to a team that is 11 games better than the Timberwolves. Atlanta is 16-3 ATS against winning teams but 16-8 ATS against losing teams including just 8-6 ATS at home. With a game against Portland on deck, look for another complacent game from Atlanta. 10* (705) Brooklyn Nets |
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01-27-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Dallas Mavericks -5 | Top | 109-90 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
We played on Dallas Sunday and lost but we will come back with the Mavericks on Tuesday as they look to avoid a third consecutive loss. Dallas has lost consecutive games on three prior occasions this season and it went on win all of those follow up games to avoid a three-game losing streak. The Mavericks did fail to cover any of those third games however they were against the Knicks, Lakers and Kings so they were did home favorites in the first two and a road favorite in the latter making all of those tough numbers to cover. Going back even further, the Mavericks are 13-1 in their last 14 games following consecutive losses which says a lot about coaching and the entire make up of the team. Memphis played last night and won against Orlando although it failed to cover the big number. The Grizzlies capped off a successful homestand with that victory as they went 4-1 and while they have been successful on the road with a 13-7 record, digging a little deeper will explain exactly why. 10 of those 13 wins have been against teams with a losing record with Phoenix, Portland and San Antonio being the only quality victories they have away from home. The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record while the Mavericks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (508) Dallas Mavericks |
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01-27-15 | Milwaukee Bucks +4 v. Miami Heat | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
We all knew once LeBron James left the Heat, things would not be the same in Miami but it has been even worse than expected. Injuries and age have taken a toll on this team and at 20-24, Miami is currently in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings only because of the overall weakness of the conference. The Heat are coming off an impressive win over the Bulls on Sunday however, their second straight win but you have to go all the way back to the start of the season to find the last time they won three in a row. Since then, Miami is 0-4 following two straight wins and the fact it has won consecutive games that few amount of times exemplifies the struggles that are taking place this season. Miami has been favored only 16 times in 44 games and is just 6-9-1 ATS in those games while going 4-7 straight up and 3-8 ATS as a home favorite. Milwaukee meanwhile lost at San Antonio on Sunday which was its third loss in four games and despite two straight road losses, the Bucks have been pretty solid away from home. They are 12-12 in 24 road games which includes an 8-3 record against teams with a losing record. Every year there are teams that separate themselves from the others as being a great bounce back team and Milwaukee takes the prize so far as it is 17-4 ATS following a loss, winning 14 of those 21 games outright. 10* (505) Milwaukee Bucks |
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01-25-15 | Dallas Mavericks -2.5 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 106-109 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertain status of Pelicans forward Ryan Anderson who is questionable with an ankle injury as New Orleans continues to get stung by the injury bug. They already have lost Jrue Holiday who is expected to be out for another couple weeks and they just got back forward Anthony Davis who missed three games with a toe injury. New Orleans has won two straight games but those were against Minnesota and Los Angeles, the two worst teams in the Western Conference, to move back over .500 at 22-21. The Pelicans have been able to avoid big losing streaks but they have also been unable to sustain winning streaks as they are 5-16 this season following a victory which includes going 0-4 following two consecutive wins. The Mavericks look to rebound following a home loss to the Bulls on Friday and they hit the road where they are 16-7 on the season, the best road record in the Western Conference. Ironically, they lost at home to the team that possesses the second best road record in all of basketball and Dallas will also be out to win its 10th straight game in this series. Dallas is 10-3 following a loss this season so it has been a great bounce back team and it has been able to take care of business against the team it is supposed to as the Mavericks are 12-1 as road favorites this season. The only game they lost was at Houston and it was questionable they should have been favored there because Dwight Howard was out. The Mavericks are 43-18 ATS in their last 61 road games against teams with a winning home record and they have covered five straight in New Orleans. 10* (807) Dallas Mavericks |
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01-25-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns +3 | Top | 120-100 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
The Clippers are coming off a historic victory over the Nets on Friday as they won by 39 points in a game that could have been much worse. They led by as many as 46 points before taking the foot off the gas and that result is playing into this number on Sunday. The 70 first-half points by the Clippers and the 37 by the Nets matched the season high for Los Angeles and the season low for its opponents which shows how dominant of a game it was and how hard it is going to be to sustain that momentum especially on the road. The Clippers are a respectable 10-7 on the road but those 17 road games are the fewest of any team in the NBA and it has mostly been due to the recent stretch of playing 12 of their last 14 games at home. Los Angeles is 2-3 on the road following a home win and going back it is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Phoenix is coming off a loss against Houston on Thursday which snapped a four-game winning streak and also snapped a seven-game home winning streak so the Suns will be out to get that game back. As far as this line goes, it makes no sense. The Suns were favored by 2.5 points over the Rockets and now they are getting points against the Clippers which are a half-game worse than Houston. Additionally, this is the first time all season Phoenix has been a home underdog. The Clippers have won the first two meetings this season, both coming at home, so Phoenix will also be out for some revenge and we are seeing as much as a 10.5-point line swing which is simply too much of an overadjustment. 10* (812) Phoenix Suns |
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01-24-15 | Detroit Pistons v. Milwaukee Bucks +2 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Milwaukee has lost two straight games which has not happened a lot this season and the Bucks also failed to cover the spread in both of those games, which is even more of a rarity. They have won 13 of 20 games following a loss while going 16-4 ATS in those games and getting points at home presents a great opportunity to keep this massive streak alive. Milwaukee has been average at home this season as it is a game under .500 but that record could be a lot better as six losses have come by six points or less including four by just one possession. The next three games as well as five of the next seven are on the road making this a big game to get back over .500. Detroit is playing its best basketball of the season as most are aware of as it has won 12 of its last 15 games with two of those losses coming against the hottest team in the NBA, the Hawks. Being favored on the road however is a little too aggressive against a .500 team. The Pistons have been road favorites twice this season and while they have won and covered, those were against the Magic and Knicks, two teams that are 16 and 28 games under .500 respectively so you can see the difference in class here. The Pistons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game while the Bucks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (504) Milwaukee Bucks |
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01-23-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder +4 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 93-103 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
After a mediocre 5-5 start, Atlanta has taken the NBA by storm, going a remarkable 30-3 over its last 33 games to take control of the Eastern Conference. This includes 14 consecutive wins in which the Hawks have covered every single one of those games. They never trailed against Indiana and that has become a habit of late. Since winning a close game against Detroit back on January ninth, their biggest deficit over the last seven games has been three points and in the seven games total, they have been behind by a total of just seven points combined which is pretty incredible. Taking nothing away from what it has done but Atlanta has played the 28th ranked schedule in the NBA with five of the eight losses coming against top 16 teams. Oklahoma St. barely is in that group because of a poor start to the season with the absences of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook for lengthy periods of time. The Thunder are currently ninth in the Western Conference standings but they are playing like a contender once again as after a 3-12, they have gone 19-8 over their last 27 games including wins in four straight games. They are 11-5 against the Eastern Conference and while Atlanta is the class of that side right now, the Thunder will not be intimidated by the Hawks or their streak. Betting against Atlanta has not been smart in some of its recent games but it has not faced a team with a winning streak this long since taking on Portland back on January 3rd. 10* (807) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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01-23-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 196 | Top | 91-86 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
We lost the Toronto over in its last game as a 32-point first quarter killed any chance of surpassing the total. The Raptors lost that game which was their third loss in four games with all five of those games staying below the total. The main reason has been the offense which has cooled off considerably, averaging just 92 ppg on 40.6 percent shooting. Those averages are way down from their season numbers and if there is an opponent that can jump start that offense, it is the Sixers. Philadelphia is allowing close to 103 ppg on the season so it should show very little resistance against the Raptors and Toronto is going to be gunning to get out of its offense struggles. The Sixers offense has been pretty bad of late as well as they have gone 19 straight games without scoring 100 points. Don't be surprised to see that streak get broken here as Toronto is allowing the fifth most points on the road in the NBA at 106.2 ppg. The Raptors have allowed at least 100 points in 13 of their 19 road games this season and while the defense has been better the last two games, it has been a pace issue as Memphis and Milwaukee has taken just 74 and 76 shots respectively. The Sixers average 81 shots per game and they are the sixth fasted team in the NBA with 99.9 possessions per game. These teams played just over a week ago with a closing total of 202.5 which shows how much value we are getting in this total on Friday. 10* Over (801) Toronto Raptors/(802) Philadelphia 76ers |
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01-22-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Chicago Bulls +5 | Top | 81-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
We held off on this game hoping for a line move and we got just that. This line opened at +2 early afternoon on Wednesday and now we are seeing pretty much -5 across the board. The Spurs are healthy and riding a four-game winning streak, both straight up and against the number and this is the time the public starts backing them heavily. San Antonio is 12-10 on the road following its win in Denver on Tuesday but this is an interesting line in the fact that it was favored by only 3.5 more points there and in their previous road game at Charlotte, the Spurs are actually favored by more tonight despite playing a team nine games better than the Hornets. Things are not good in Chicago right now as it is coming off its second straight loss, a 14-point setback against the Cavaliers. That effort forced Derrick Rose to call his team out, himself included, stating they are playing with no passion, no energy and no hustle. It comes at a perfect time with the upcoming schedule being pretty brutal and Rose's comments should have his team ready to go tonight as we like backing teams facing adversity that need to step up with the public all over the other side. So far this season, the Bulls have responded well for the most part as they are 11-4 following a loss and while they have failed in both attempts as a home underdog, those games were against Golden St. and Atlanta, the two top teams in their respective conferences. If we are going to see a full on effort from Chicago, this is the night it happens. 10* (504) Chicago Bulls |
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01-21-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 200.5 | Top | 86-92 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
We lost with the Toronto over on Monday as a 33-point third quarter did us in. Guard DeMar DeRozan went over 20 points in each of his first three games back from a groin injury but was held scoreless on 0-of-9 shooting in 26 minutes by the Bucks so don't expect to see that again We are playing the over for much of the same reasons as Toronto has lost seven of its last 10 and the reason has been defense. The Raptors have allowed an average of 110.7 ppg in those seven losses and while they allowed just 84, 96 and 89 points in the wins, those were against the Sixers, Celtics and Bucks. The defense has been bad all season as they have allowed 46.3 percent shooting, sixth worst in the league and they are allowing 106.9 ppg on the road, which is third highest trailing only Lakers and Timberwolves. While Toronto has gone under in four straight games, Memphis went under in its last game against Dallas after a run of five straight games going over the total. The Grizzlies play a pretty solid defense but they are actually better on the road than at home while the offense is really the catalyst. They average 105.1 ppg at home which is seventh highest in the NBA which plays right into the hands of the porous Toronto defense The over is 19-8 in the Grizzlies last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the over is 13-5 in the Raptors road games this season. 10* Over (711) Toronto Raptors/(712) Memphis Grizzlies |
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01-21-15 | Indiana Pacers +11.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 91-110 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 30 m | Show |
We bypassed betting against Atlanta on Monday which was a good thing as it won and covered yet again but we will be going against the Hawks Wednesday. One big reason for not playing against them last timer out was the opposition as while Detroit may not scare many people, the Pistons are playing very solid and they gave Atlanta all it could handle 10 days prior as the Hawks won that meeting by just three points on the road. The streak has now reached 13 straight wins and covers but this is a great opportunity for that to come to an end, at least the cover part as the Hawks are laying a bug number once again and they are just 2-4 ATS when laying eight or more points. While Atlanta has been winning, the Pacers have been on an opposite streak as they have dropped five straight and six of their last seven while going seven straight games without a cover and it is extremely to see a dynamic this big where we have a contrarian bounce angle of 20 (13 straight ATS wins for Atlanta and seven straight ATS losses for Indiana). Atlanta won both earlier meetings this season by double-digits thus taking out their revenge from last season's Conference Quarterfinals series loss in seven games so the sense of urgency may not be there especially with a game at home against Oklahoma City on deck. Indiana meanwhile is in desperation mode right now and will play a hard fought game. 10* (709) Indiana Pacers |
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01-20-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets +8 | Top | 109-99 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
Denver got absolutely annihilated at Golden St. yesterday as it fell by 43 points for its third straight loss and things don’t get any easier tonight. Facing Dallas twice, Golden St. and now San Antonio in a four-game, five-day stretch is a nightmare schedule for a team trying to find its identity and simply trying to turn the corner. Most of the damage this season has been on the road however as the Nuggets are 6-14 away from home but a much more respectable 12-9 in their building even though that does include an embarrassing loss against Minnesota last time they were here. That along with the defeat yesterday will have Denver plenty motivated here., The Spurs meanwhile are coming off a win over Utah, its second straight since Kawhi Leonard returned to the lineup after missing 15 straight games with a hand injury. The Spurs went just 7-8 over that stretch so now fully healthy, they are a dangerous team going into the second half of the season where they are currently sitting in fourth place in the Southwest Division, three and a half games behind Memphis. But this is a big number to be laying on the road against a team that has a better record at home than San Antonio does on the road. The Spurs are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game while the Nuggets are 31-11 ATS in their last 42 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (504) Denver Nuggets |
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01-19-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 198.5 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Milwaukee returns home from its game in London against the Knicks which was an easy winner and it also resulted in an easy under, the 11th straight game that has stayed under the total for the Bucks. Bad offense, strong defense or a combination of both? It has been a mix as Milwaukee has gone over 100 points only twice but has scored 95 or more points eight times so it hasn't been no where near shutdown. You will see that the Bucks have allowed 79, 95, 84 and 77 points their last four games but those three lowest point totals given up were against the three worst teams in the NBA and three pretty putrid offenses. Toronto has lost two straight games and seven of its last nine and the reason has been defense. The Raptors have allowed an average of 110.7 ppg in those seven losses and while they allowed just 84 and 96 points in the wins, those were against the lowly Sixers and Celtics. The defense has been bad all season as they have allowed 46.3 percent shooting, fifth worst in the league and they are allowing 108 ppg on the road, which is third highest trailing only Lakers and Timberwolves. Yet, Toronto has gone under in its last three games so we are getting exceptional contrarian value with a team that is 13-4 to the over in its 17 road games and is 17-5 to the over its last 22 games playing with no rest. 10* Over (719) Toronto Raptors/(720) Milwaukee Bucks |
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01-19-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. New York Knicks +6.5 | Top | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Following their loss in London, the Knicks have now dropped 16 consecutive games while going back further, they have lost 26 of their last 27 games and a lot of those have not been close. During the recent losing streak, they are 4-11-1 ATS and during the 27 games, they are 10-16-1 ATS which to be honest is not that bad of a record considering the magnitude of the straight up losing skid. They are back home where they have lost 12 in a row but you have to give credit to the New York faithful as they still come out and watch so there is no lack of energy in this building. I think the Knicks actually have a good shot here of breaking the skid as the schedule during this stretch has been absolutely brutal. Only a majority of games have come against losing teams and overall, they have played the fourth toughest schedule in the NBA so while you can't make excuses for losing, they have had little opportunities. New Orleans is sitting at .500 so this would seem like another bad spot but the Pelicans are likely to be without forward Anthony Davis and point guard Jrue Holiday once again. To their credit, they went into Toronto last night and won without the duo but getting up for a top team in the Eastern Conference compared to one of the worst are two different things. They are just 4-15 this season following a win while going 2-8 ATS as a favorite following a victory. 10* (714) New York Knicks |
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01-18-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Orlando Magic UNDER 210.5 | Top | 127-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Oklahoma City is coming off one of its highest scoring games of the season as it took care of Golden St. 127-115 in a game that featured two very potent offenses. At least for the Thunder, that is the case since the return of Westbrook and Durant. Now they will be facing the fourth lowest scoring team in the NBA and the seventh slowest team as far as pace as Orlando is averaging just 94.9 ppg while their games are averaging only 96.5 possessions per game. While the Orlando defense has struggled the three games, overall it is not a bad unit that allows 100.1 ppg which is right in the middle of the pack. The Magic have gone over the total in four straight games which has been a mix of offense and defense but now they are getting some great value. They have gone under in six of their last nine games with a total of 200 or higher and tonight presents the biggest over/under they have seen all season. A lot of that has to do with Oklahoma City, which has gone over in two straight against two of the fastest teams in the league. The Thunder have had six games with a total of 210 or higher, three of those against Golden St. and the other three against teams ranked 3rd, 5th and 8th in pace. The under is 11-1 in the Thunder's last 12 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game while the under is 10-3 in the Magic's last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* Under (803) Oklahoma City Thunder/(804) Orlando Magic |
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01-17-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls +2.5 | Top | 107-99 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Winning streaks play a big factor with lines as they need to be constantly adjusted and they get to a point where they become overadjusted. Last night, the Hawks opened as three-point underdogs against Toronto and the line eventually shifted five points as Atlanta closed as a two-point favorite. The Hawks opened here as a two-point underdog but it quickly shifted to a two-point favorite in a matter of just 12 hours. Atlanta won its 11th straight game and is 16-1 in its last 17 games while going 11-0 ATS and 16-1 ATS respectively over that stretch as well. This includes 11 consecutive wins and covers on the road which is the most impressive part as this is rarely seen in this league. The first win of this recent 17-game stretch came at home against Chicago where Atlanta was favored by 2.5 points, the dame number it is now favored by on the road. The Bulls also won last night in Boston as they bounced back from consecutive losses but there is still work to be done. Those two losses came at home as Chicago wants to snap that skid as well as getting some payback against the best team in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record and I expect them to break the streak tonight. 10* (506) Chicago Bulls |
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01-17-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons OVER 194 | Top | 89-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
We had the Sixers over last night and while their offense improved from previous games as expected, it was the New Orleans offense that let us down as the Pelicans managed to shoot just 38.7 percent from the floor including 23.5 percent from long range. And it isn't because the Sixers defense is any good because it isn't and we will see that tonight. Playing with no rest will hurt the defense as the Sixers have allowed 102.3 ppg in their previous nine games playing with no rest, six of those going over the total. Additionally, Philadelphia has allowed fewer than 90 points seven other times and has allowed an average of 106 ppg in the next game. Detroit is coming off a dramatic win last night against the Pacers as it bounced back from a loss against New Orleans on Wednesday. It was the second straight under for the Pistons but the offense still managed a good game and I expect it to be even better tonight. Since the resurgence of this team, the offense has been outstanding by averaging 103.6 ppg in 18 games compared to 92.8 ppg in its first 22 games. The over is 6-1 in the Sixers last seven games against teams with a losing record while the over is 5-1 in the Pistons last six games against teams with a losing record. 10* Over (503) Philadelphia 76ers/(504) Detroit Pistons |
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01-16-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Toronto Raptors -1 | Top | 110-89 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
Atlanta has lost only eight games all season long and 25 percent of those have come against Toronto. Surely the Hawks will be out for revenge but we are hardly a proponent of road revenge and the Raptors are in an excellent spot to keep their season domination going against Atlanta. Toronto has been on a bit of a slide as it lost just six times during its first 28 games but has dropped six games over its last 10 contests, going 3-7 ATS over that stretch. This will be the second game back for DeMar DeRozan who missed 21 games before returning against Philadelphia where he put up 20 points in just under 29 minutes. The Raptors are 13-3 in the 16 games he has finished and just 13-9 in the games he has not. The Hawks remain the hottest team in the NBA with 10 straight victories and on top of that, 10 straight covers. This run has definitely added value to the Raptors which were favored in Atlanta by 3.5 points the last meeting and are now favored by less at home now. All trends point to Atlanta in this one but are going opposite all of those and proclaim that the Hawks run ends here. 10* (810) Toronto Raptors |
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01-16-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Orlando Magic UNDER 198 | Top | 106-96 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
Here we have two teams that have stayed under the total in the majority of their games on the season but that has not been the case recently. I think we come back to the norm on Friday. Orlando has won two straight games thanks to an offense that has put up 121 and 120 points but that is more of an anomaly than the norm. the Magic eclipsed 100 points in two straight games only one other time the entire season and they followed that up with an 86-point effort next time out. Memphis has also picked the offense during its two-game winning streak, scoring 122 and 103 points the last two games but 21 points came in overtime in the former, which would have stayed under had overtime not taken place. Both teams shoot the ball above average but these are two of the slower teams in the NBA as Memphis averages 97.2 possessions in its games while Orlando averages 96.4 possessions in its games, good for 21st and 24th in the NBA respectively. The under is 4-1-1 in the Grizzlies last six games against teams with a losing record while the under is 8-2 in the Magic's last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (807) Memphis Grizzlies/(808) Orlando Magic |
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01-15-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 204 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This isn't the most exciting matchup to watch with Cleveland on a six-game losing streak and the Lakers having dropped two straight, four of five and sitting 15 games under .500 for the season. But what it does do is give us a fantastic spot to cash a total as both teams have been riding significant under streaks in which case we should see a high scoring game going tonight. The Cavaliers had posted seven straight unders with LeBron James out of the lineup as the offense could do nothing, averaging just 89.1 ppg over those seven games. James returned against Phoenix and while the offense put up 100 points, the game still went under because the total was inflated at 212.5 but now it has come down for tonight. As for the Lakers, they have stayed under the total in their last six games including putting up a mere 153 points in their last game against Miami but that was just a horrible shooting night as they shot 31.5 percent including 17.4 percent from long range with the Heat not doing much better. Cleveland is 11-2 to the over in its last 13 road games after three or more consecutive unders while Los Angeles is 23-5 to the over in its last 28 home games after scoring 80 points or less. 10* Over (505) Cleveland Cavaliers/(506) Los Angeles Lakers |
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01-14-15 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -5.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Washington won and covered for us last night but we will be going against the Wizards tonight in what I see as a big letdown spot after they snapped their 17-game losing streak against San Antonio. The Wizards also bounced back from their 31-point loss against Atlanta in their previous game to improve to 17-4 at home but they hit the road with a modest 9-8 record which includes losses in four of their last five on the highway. Chicago has not been playing its best basketball as it has 1-3 in its last four games with two of those losses coming against Orlando and Utah with the loss against the Magic coming at home on Monday by seven points as an 11.5-point favorite. The third defeats over this stretch came at Washington on Friday by 16 points so the Bulls have an opportunity for a quick revenge turnaround, similar to what Washington had last night. Additionally, this is Chicago's first home game against the Wizards since they were eliminated by them in five games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals last season. Here, we play on teams that are coming off a loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1996. Meanwhile, Chicago is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games revenging a road loss of 10 points or more. 10* (714) Chicago Bulls |
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01-14-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Boston Celtics +7 | Top | 105-91 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The Hawks won against last night as they defeated the Sixers by 18 points to increase their winning streak to nine games and maintain their lead in the Eastern Conference at four games. The nine straight wins are currently the most active in the league and even more impressive, they have covered all nine of those games as well. Atlanta also extended its single-season franchise record for consecutive road wins to nine and it looks to keep that going tonight but as the wins pile up, the lines continue to inflate as it is now a seven-point favorite, just three points less than what it was favored by last night. While defeating the Sixers does not invoke a letdown, a game with Toronto up next can be a cause for concern for a lookahead. The Celtic won their last game, an eight-point win over New Orleans on Monday, which halted a mini two-game slide. It is rebuilding time in Boston but at 9-11 at home, the Celtics have played admirably on their home floor and tonight represents the second biggest number they have seen at home all season. The momentum from the win over the Pelicans will certainly help as the Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a win. Look for a closer than expected game tonight than what the line may be telling us. 10* (712) Boston Celtics |
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01-13-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Washington Wizards -1.5 | Top | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Washington was riding a three-game winning week before going to Atlanta on Sunday and it got pounded by 31 points against the Hawks which have now won eight straight games. Heading back some in a quick revenge situation, I expect the Wizards to bounce back tonight. Washington is 16-4 at home this season and overall it has won 21 of 25 games when favored ad that is a key stat here considering this line is so short as the probability of a win and cover are substantial. The Spurs meanwhile have won two in a row including a victory at Minnesota in their last game on Saturday. San Antonio is just one game over .500 on the road however and it only has one quality road win since late November which came against Memphis on December 5th. Washington lost in San Antonio 10 days which sets up the revenge situation as mentioned and going back, Washington has failed to cover seven straight home meetings in this series., However, this is the best Washington team over that stretch and going back, it is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points. Meanwhile, the Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win of more than 10 points. 10* (506) Washington Wizards |
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01-10-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls OVER 194 | Top | 87-95 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Milwaukee is coming off a win last night against Minnesota which was its second straight victory but more importantly, it was the Bucks ninth straight game that stayed under the total. That sets up a great opportunity tonight for a high scoring game as we are getting value with the total based on the recent under run as well as the fact this is Milwaukee's fourth game in five nights with there being travel between every game. A busy schedule like that tends to affect the defense more than anything else and while the Bucks have allowed point totals of 82, 77 and 84 points, those games were against New York, Philadelphia and Minnesota, the three worst teams in the NBA and three of the 10 lowest scoring teams in the league. Chicago is also coming off an under last night in Washington which was its second straight game to stay below the total. The offense has been the reason as the Bulls managed only 77 and 86 points in those games but they catch Milwaukee at the perfect time. The Bucks are 22-8 to the over in their last 30 road games as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points while Chicago is 13-5 to the over in home games this season. 10* Over (511) Milwaukee Bucks/(512) Chicago Bulls |
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01-10-15 | Boston Celtics v. Toronto Raptors -11.5 | Top | 96-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Boston gave it all it had last night in Indiana but it fell to the Pacers in overtime as it could not back up a win in Brooklyn from Wednesday. The Celtics now hit the road again and they will be hard pressed to duplicate the effort from last night in a back-to-back situation as they take their 4-11 road record into Toronto to face the Raptors tonight. While this is the biggest spread Boston has seen all season, it is justified in my opinion as the Raptors will be fully focused on a rout. They have lost four straight games including a defeat against Charlotte at home on Wednesday which followed up a three-game west coast sweep prior to that. That loss to the Hornets was only their fourth home loss of the season and they had won five straight games at home prior to that. Celtics Jeff Green was pulled from the starting lineup last night amid trade rumors and while his teammates rallied around that last night, it will be more difficult tonight. Green is averaging a team-best 17.6 ppg and head coach Brad Stevens said that Green won't be with the team this weekend. The Raptors are 23-11-2 ATS in their last 36 games following a loss while the Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (508) Toronto Raptors |
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01-09-15 | Phoenix Suns v. San Antonio Spurs -5 | Top | 95-100 | Push | 0 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
Not many would have expected Phoenix and San Antonio to have the same records at this point of the season but that is the case. The Suns have won four games in a row to move to six games over .500 and are currently tied with the Spurs for seventh place in the Western Conference, just percentage points behind. They are coming off a closer than expected win against Minnesota on Wednesday as they beat the lowly Timberwolves by just a bucket and while they are on a roll, they head to San Antonio at the wrong time. The Spurs lost to Detroit at home on Tuesday by a point on a last second winning shot by the Pistons. That snapped a modest two-game winning streak while also snapping a three-game home winning streak but they should bounce back here. Tony Parker returned last game but went easy as he played just 12 minutes and rested the second half while not even scoring so we will see more production from him. While San Antonio has six home losses, two have been by a single point and the other four came in overtime. They will be out for revenge following a loss in Phoenix earlier in the season and going back, the Spurs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (816) San Antonio Spurs |
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01-09-15 | Utah Jazz v. Oklahoma City Thunder -11.5 | Top | 94-99 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
The Thunder are in a very favorable spot on Friday as they look to bounce back from a two-game losing streak with losses against Golden St. and Sacramento by 26 and 21 points. Oklahoma City is riding a three-game winning streak at home and in home games that Kevin Durant has played in, it is a perfect 4-0 while going just 4-4 in his eight road games. Even though he and Russell Westbrook were not around for most of the season, the Thunder are still very much in the playoff picture and losing these types of game is not acceptable. Oklahoma City is off until next Thursday so there will be full focus here. Utah meanwhile is coming off a win at Chicago by 20 points as an 11-point underdog but it has not been good with the momentum as it is just 4-8 ATS following a win this season. To their credit, the Jazz have been solid on the road against winning teams as they are 7-2 ATS but it needs to be noted that none of those came right after a road victory. While Oklahoma City has not covered in any of its last five games, it is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games against teams with a losing road record and the home team is 11-1 ATS over the last 12 meetings in this series. 10* (810) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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01-08-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 200.5 | Top | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Charlotte won its third consecutive game last night and while doing so, also went over for the third straight game. Those totals were all less than what the Hornets are seeing tonight and all of that is due to the opposition but we are still presented with some awesome value. While the over is 16-5 in Charlotte's 21 games where the total is less than 195, the under is 11-5 when the total is 195 or greater including 5-2 at 200 or higher. Additionally, Charlotte is 21-10 to the under after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games while the under is 5-2 in the Hornets last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. Toronto has gone over the total in two straight games and on the season, the over is 21-13 however 13 of those overs came on the road as the Raptors defense stiffens up considerable at home where they allow 95.4 ppg compared to 108 ppg on the road. Toronto is 19-7 to the under in its last 26 home games after allowing 110 points or more two straight games while the under is 5-2 in the Raptors last seven home games following a road trip of seven or more days. As far as pace goes, both are slower than average as Toronto is 16th with 97.9 possessions per game while Charlotte is 20th with 97.3 possessions per game. 10* Under (501) Charlotte Hornets/(502) Toronto Raptors |
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01-07-15 | New Orleans Pelicans -4 v. Charlotte Hornets | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
We played against New Orleans on Monday as it hosted Washington and the Pelicans were in a very bad spot there, resulting in a loss. That now puts them in a good spot on Wednesday as they head to Charlotte to once again try and get back over .500. New Orleans is two games out in the Western Conference playoff race and while the season is still young, these are the types of games that really count. New Orleans is 12-4 straight up and 11-5 ATS following a loss this season. Charlotte meanwhile has won two straight games, both on the road no less, but those came against Orlando and Boston which are 11 and 10 games under .500 respectively. The Hornets are an even worse 12 games under .500 and while their home record is slightly better than New Orleans' road record, Charlotte has won just three of 16 gamers against the Western Conference this season. Additionally, the Hornets have won only five of 20 games when playing with one day of rest and they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Pelicans meanwhile have covered six of their last seven road games and have owned this series by going 16-4-1 ATS over the last 21 meetings. I will gladly take the better team in the better situation against a team that is 4-17 against the league's top 16 teams and 0-7 as a home underdog. 10* (703) New Orleans Hornets |
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01-07-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 195 | Top | 97-77 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Milwaukee is coming off another low scoring game last night as it has now gone under the total in seven straight games. Tonight presents a great opportunity to break that streak as this one sets up good for a high scoring affair. The Bucks offense has been stuck in neutral the last four games, scoring no more than 96 points but now they face a Sixers defense that is allowing 104 ppg and has given up at least 112 points in four of their last six games. They are coming off a solid defensive effort last time out against the Cavaliers as they allowed just 92 points but putting together back-to-back strong efforts on defense has been a rarity. Philadelphia is coming off an under in that game against Cleveland but it has gone 9-3 to the over in its last 12 games following a game that went under the total. The Sixers offense has not reached 100 points since December 13th but that could change here as Milwaukee is allowing 99.5 ppg on the road and the over is 10-4 in the Bucks last 14 road games against teams with a losing home record. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1 in the Sixers last six home games against teams with a winning road record. As far as pace goes, the Sixers and Bucks are averaging 100.7 and 98.8 possessions per game respectively, 4th and 11th most in the league. 10* Over (705) Milwaukee Bucks/(706) Philadelphia 76ers |
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01-06-15 | Detroit Pistons v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 198.5 | Top | 105-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Detroit has won five straight games, all being covers as well as the offense has hit its stride, averaging 108.4 ppg and the defense is not far behind as it has improved as well, allowing just 90.2 ppg. Facing a majority of bad teams will do that however and while I expect the offense to keep going, the defense will be in for a tough time on Tuesday. Because of the stifling defense of late, the Pistons have stayed under the total in their last four games. The Spurs meanwhile have stayed under the total in three straight games as the defense has been playing well while the offense has been below its season averages leading up to it. This line came out late due to the uncertainty of Tony Parker and while he likely will not go, the possibility is only a added benefit. As mentioned, Detroit has not played many good teams during its run and it is 8-1 to the over in its last nine games against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile the Spurs have played three solid teams during their under run and going back, they are 10-1 to the over in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record while the over is 10-2 in the Spurs last 12 home games. 10* Over (503) Detroit Pistons/(504) San Antonio Spurs |
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01-05-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 218 | Top | 91-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
We are definitely going against the grain in this one as everyone sees a trackmeet between Oklahoma City and Golden St. but the value here is too hard to pass up going the other way. These teams met just over two weeks ago and while that game in Golden St. surpassed the total, it would not have if tonight's number was in place as the over/under has gone from 211.5 to 218 in a span of 17 days, which is too big of an adjustment. A lot of that is due to recent games as Oklahoma Coty has gone over in three straight and five of six while Golden St. has gone over in two straight and five of seven. The Warriors falls into a great totals spot as we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 210 involving a team that is averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg, after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games. This situation is 31-9 (77.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, Golden St. is 20-9 to the under in its last 29 games after scoring 100 points or more three straight games while the under is 21-7 in Oklahoma City's last 28 games playing on two days rest. 10* Under (721) Oklahoma City Thunder/(722) Golden St. Warriors |
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01-05-15 | Washington Wizards +3 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 92-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Washington opened this Western Conference swing roadtrip with a win over Houston but it has dropped its last three games but those games came against Dallas, San Antonio and a fully healthy Oklahoma City. This is the final game of this trip and I expect the Wizards to close with a win but will gladly grab the generous points. New Orleans is over .500 once again following a 28-point rout over Houston on Friday which was its fifth straight cover. That is a streak I like going against and because they are favored, the Pelicans are obviously being asked to win but they are 0-4 in their last four games following a victory. Two situations are on our side. First, we play against home favorites revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive road losses. This situation is 94-49 ATS (65.7 percent) since 1996. Second, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 102 ppg, after allowing 100 points or more two straight games. This situation is 25-3 ATS (89.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Washington is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games. 10* (711) Washington Wizards |
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01-04-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat +2.5 | Top | 84-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Brooklyn and Miami are going in opposite directions which is providing a solid line for the home team in a great bounce back situation. The Heat are coming off a 36-point loss at Houston last night, easily their worst loss of the season and their worst loss since 2010. losing like that is certainly no good but it is a great motivator moving forward and the lone good news from last night is the fact that the starters so plenty of rest as the game was done early in the third quarter. Brooklyn meanwhile has won three straight games and six of its last seven to get back to .500 as the offense has picked things up. But the Miami defense has been pretty solid all season and as far as pace, the Heat allow the fewest amount of shot attempts in the NBA. The Nets last win came in Orlando by a bucket as they nearly blew a 26-point lead and I don't think that bodes well going forward. Miami falls into a solid situation as we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a home loss against opponent with that opponent coming off a road loss by 10 points or more. This situation is 42-15 ATS (73.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* (804) Miami Heat |
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01-03-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 206 | Top | 91-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
After winning the first two games of this current roadtrip against Orlando and Miami, the Sixers have lost the last four games all by at least 16 points. The defense has been to blame as they have allowed 112, 114 and 126 points in three of those losses and I expect another high scoring affair tonight. The Clippers have won three of their last four games including two straight on this current homestand and all four of these games have stayed under the total. The defense has played well the last two games but this is the type of game the Clippers may not put a full effort into and while they are an average pace team, the Sixers are the third fastest by averaging 101 possessions per game. So it would not be surprising to see Los Angeles go along with that. The last meeting here a season ago had a total of 219.5 so we are seeing a big difference this time around. The Clippers are 8-0 to the over in their last eight games after a game forcing opponent to commit eight or less turnovers while the over is 7-1 in the Sixers last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Over (515) Philadelphia 76ers/(516) Los Angeles Clippers |
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01-02-15 | Washington Wizards +7.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertainty of Bradley Beal as he injured a toe in the Wizards last game at Dallas. They lost by 27 points in that one as the Mavericks built an 18-point halftime lead and never looked back so we can expect a bounce back tonight. Washington is off to a 22-9 start and while it has played a relatively easy schedule, the fact it is 7-3 against the Western Conference including wins over the Rockets, Clippers and Pelicans so they can hang with some solid opposition. The Thunder are looking to make a playoff push after a poor start to the season because of injuries and they have won three of their last four games including a win over Phoenix in overtime New Year's Eve. I feel Oklahoma City is overvalued however as it is a public team to begin with but should not be favored this much over a quality team. Case in point, the Thunder were favored by 6.5 points at home against Charlotte the day after Christmas and now they are favored by a bigger number against a team that is 13 games better than the Hornets. In the game here last season, Washington was getting only one point more than it is getting tonight and this year's version is much better than last year's version that took the floor here in November. Here, we play on road underdogs after a loss by 20 points or more going up against an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games. This situation is 45-15 ATS (75 percent) since 1996. 10* (811) Washington Wizards |