Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-22-15 | Packers +1 v. Vikings | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 51 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on GREEN BAY for our Sunday Enforcer. After another loss, people are starting to give up on the Packers but this week it could be do or die. Green Bay dropped its third straight game with a home loss against the Lions despite winning the yardage battle by 85 yards. Now the Packers hit the road again to face one of the hottest teams in the league but it is a series they have owned. Aaron Rodgers has looked lost the last three games and while teams change, the Vikings are one of his favorite opponents to face. Minnesota has won five straight games to move to 7-2 overall and into first place in the NFC North. The Vikings have covered an amazing eight straight games and they are doing it by not even being dominant. They have been outgained in five of their nine games and with the exception of a domination in Detroit, the other three plus yardage variances were just 27, 22 and 14 yards. Here, we play on road teams in conference games where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 56-22 ATS (71.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Packers are 39-18 ATS in their last 57 divisional games and 23-11-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. 10* (463) Green Bay Packers |
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11-22-15 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 33-3 | Loss | -100 | 51 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on SAN DIEGO for out Sunday Ultimate Underdog. It has been a rough start for the Chargers as they are 2-7 overall following a current five-game losing streak. They are so much better than the record shows however as they have been close to winning all but one of their losses and they have been outgained only twice in nine games overall. San Diego has lost three straight games at home after opening 2-0 and it is in a great spot to get back into the win column. Kansas City is coming off an upset win at Denver last week but clearly the Broncos were not the same Broncos. The Chiefs have now won and covered three straight games and just like that, they are now being placed as road favorites. This is based on records and nothing else. The Chiefs are getting outgained overall on the season by a couple yards while San Diego is +41.8 in yardage differential. Kansas City falls into a negative situation where we play against favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after three or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 57-26 ATS (68.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Chargers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (474) San Diego Chargers |
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11-22-15 | Cowboys -1 v. Dolphins | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 48 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on DALLAS for our NFL Game of the Week. The losing streak has reached seven games for the Cowboys after falling to Tampa Bay 10-6 last week. It shows what the lack of a quality quarterback can do but at the same time, Dallas was in all but one of those games so a couple breaks here and there and the record could be a lot better. Tony Romo is back this week which is a big spark for the offense and it comes at the right time as they can not afford many more losses. Miami pulled off the upset at Philadelphia last week despite getting outgained by 147 total yards. That was the end of a three-game roadtrip and the schedule this season has been tough so far with just two true home games prior to this week. The home field advantage down here is not great however. At 4-5, Miami is still hanging around for a playoff spot but the upcoming schedule is brutal. Dallas has Carolina on deck Thanksgiving which makes this game even more important for the Cowboys which fall into a great situation. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a road loss, with a losing record. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Miami is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games following a win by three points or less. 10* (455) Dallas Cowboys |
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11-22-15 | Jets -3 v. Texans | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the NY JETS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Jets opened the season 4-1 but have dropped three of their last four games including a tough loss against former head coach Rex Ryan and the Bills last Thursday. This is still a very solid team and this is a perfect opportunity for the defense to get back no track after a few rough games. At 5-4, they are right in the thick of the playoff picture but this is a game they cannot lose as the rest of the schedule is extremely difficult. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be under center after thumb surgery on his non-throwing hand. Houston upset the Bengals this past Monday and now has to play on short rest against a team on extended rest. The Texans are tied with the Colts for first place in the AFC South so this is obviously a big game as well but having T.J. Yates is certainly not ideal. The defense has flexed its muscles the last two weeks but that changes here. The Jets have a solid situation on their side as we play on road teams in conference games where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 56-22 ATS (71.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Texans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (461) New York Jets |
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11-16-15 | Texans +11 v. Bengals | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Despite a losing record on the season, Houston is outgaining their opponents by an average of 18.5 ypg and even with all of the inconsistencies, the Texans are just a half -game of the Colts in the AFC South. Houston is coming off a win over Tennessee in its last game, two weeks ago. On Sunday, Carolina and New England were able to keep their perfect records alive and it will be up to Cincinnati to do the same tonight. A pair of bookend wins over Oakland and Cleveland saw domination on the stat sheet but the six games in-between had the Bengals just +28 total yards in the positive against opponents. Even more on our side is that fact that Cincinnati has yet to fail to cover a game and that is running this number up with the Monday night public going all-in on the home favorite. The Texans fall into a solid contrarian situation where we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season that are averaging 3.5 ypc or less going up against teams allowing 4.5 ypc or more, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (275) Houston Texans |
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11-15-15 | Patriots v. Giants +7.5 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 71 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the GIANTS for our Non-Conference Game of the Month. The Patriots are rolling and their mission to go undefeated remains intact following a win over Washington last week. That was the last of three straight home games which puts them in a very unfavorable situation as explained later. Laying points on the road is one thing but laying this many points is absurd. Basically, with a three-point edge for home field, New England would be a 13-5-point favorite at home against the Giants, the same number they were laying against the Redskins last week and that simply does not jive. The Giants have been off and on this season as they are 5-4 following a road win over Tampa Bay last week, their second straight road game. They are finding ways to win as they have been outgained in eight of nine games which is usually a bad trend to have and they could easily be 7-2 right now if not for late losses against Dallas, Atlanta and New Orleans. Here, we play against road favorites that are coming off a home win by 10 points or more going up against an opponent off a road win. This situation is 90-50 ATS (64.3 percent) since 1983. As mentioned, the Patriots are coming off three straight home games and teams favored by more than three points playing a non-divisional game are a dismal 3-19 ATS. 10* (272) New York Giants |
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11-15-15 | Vikings v. Raiders -3 | Top | 30-14 | Loss | -100 | 71 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the RAIDERS for our Sunday Enforcer. The Raiders are arguably one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season. The numbers are not overly great as they are getting outgained overall on the season but they are 4-4 with three of those losses coming by a combined 11 points so things could be better than their 4-4 record shows. Oakland has the playmakers that they have not had in recent years and quarterback Derek Carr is turning heads and is likely going to be a star in this league. There is absolutely no quit in this team and the coaching staff is finally one that looks to be the right fit. Minnesota is looking pretty solid as well at 6-2 and while it too can be put into that most improved group, we saw good things out of them last season when they finished the season 5-4. After losing the opener in San Francisco, the Vikings have only one loss which came by just three points at Denver and they have covered every game since. Coming off four straight wins, heading to the west coast and with a game against Green Bay on deck, they are not in a good spot here at all. Additionally, we play on favorites averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 295 and 335 ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (268) Oakland Raiders |
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11-15-15 | Panthers v. Titans +6 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on TENNESSEE for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Tennessee is coming off a very impressive win last week over New Orleans and while that could normally spell letdown, that is not the case here. While they are just 2-6, the Titans trail the Colts by only a game and a half in the AFC South and with Andrew Luck on the shelf for at least a month, this division is up for grabs. Tennessee has outgained five of eight opponents and of their six losses, three have come by a combined six points. The Titans are back home after two straight road games and face off against the undefeated Panthers. Carolina defeated Green Bay last week as they dodged a late bullet and that was their third straight home game which puts them in a very unfavorable situation as explained later. While the Panthers have outgained six of eight opponents this season, the most they have outgained any one opponent is by just 51 yards so they have been hardly dominant. Tennessee falls into a fantastic situation a we play against favorites that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 27-4 ATS (87.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. As mentioned, the Panthers are coming off three straight home games and teams favored by more than three points playing a non-divisional game are a dismal 3-19 ATS. 10* (256) Tennessee Titans |
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11-15-15 | Lions v. Packers -11 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the PACKERS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. As quickly as a team is one of the best in the NFL in the eyes of the public, they can turn on a dime and now the Packers are nowhere near the powerhouse they were just three weeks ago. I disagree with that and a return home is just what this team needs. Back-to-back road losses at Denver and Carolina are nothing to be ashamed of as they are a combined 15-1 so this is the perfect spot for a beatdown. Aaron Rodgers is one of the best in the business at home and coming off a loss so putting the two together spells disaster for the Lions. Detroit got destroyed at Kansas City two weeks ago to fall to 1-7 and while it is coming off a bye week, that won't matter here. The Lions season is done and there is already talk about Matthew Stafford leaving the team in the offseason. He has never defeated a team on the road with a winning percentage of .750 or better as he is 0-10 in this spot. We are also well aware of the Packers home dominance in this series and while we aren't using that as part of this play, it is still a very significant psychological factor. Here, we play on favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are coming off a road loss, in the second half of the season. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, Detroit is 0-12 ATS against teams who commit one or less turnovers per game in the second half of the season. 10* (252) Green Bay Packers |
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11-08-15 | Broncos v. Colts +5.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 52 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on INDIANAPOLIS for our Sunday Enforcer. The Colts came through for us last Monday night as a big fourth quarter forced overtime but they just fell short. Indianapolis fell to 3-5 on the season and is now tied with Houston for first place in the AFC South so each game is getting bigger and bigger at this point. A shakeup was needed and it came this week as Rob Chudzinski is taking over the playcalling after offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton was fired and this is a great situation for the Colts because of this. New wrinkles will be put in place and Denver is at the disadvantage of not being able to review film as things will be different. The Broncos remained undefeated with a big win last Sunday over previously undefeated Green Bay as they dominated the Packers which provides us with a great spot to go against them. The Colts are 9-2 in their last 11 home games against teams completing 61 percent or better of their passes while the Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS victory. Additionally, we play against favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This is a revenge game for the Broncos from the playoff loss from last January but we are not an advocate of road revenge and it won't come into play here. 10* (470) Indianapolis Colts |
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11-08-15 | Packers -2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 29-37 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on GREEN BAY for our NFC Game of the Month. Green Bay may be a surprising road favorite here to some, but it is the right side and frankly, the Packers should be favored by more. This week we have heard that the Packers are reeling right now and are a team that is ready for a freefall and not even a top ten team. Well, those declarations are all wrong and catching Green Bay in this spot after the effort last week is a huge edge. The Packers were awful last week in Denver against the best defense in the NFL but they have been a great bounceback team. Under Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are 18-5 ATS off a loss and under head coach Mike McCarthy, they are 8-1 ATS in nine road games after scoring 14 points or less last game. Additionally, Green Bay is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games following a game on the road the last tow years. Carolina is one of four remaining undefeated teams in the NFL and arguably the worst of the bunch. The Panthers have not outgained a single opponent by more than 51 total yards through seven games and overall, they are outgaining opponents by just 6.5 ypg. Granted, the Packers are getting outgained overall but that was due to the thrashing that was put upon them last week. They fall into a great situation where we play on road favorites that are coming off a road loss, in November games. This situation is 50-22 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (463) Green Bay Packers |
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11-08-15 | Redskins +14 v. Patriots | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on WASHINGTON for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The public is all over the Patriots once again which comes as no surprise as they moved to 7-0 following a blowout win over Miami last Thursday night. But now the lines are going to really get overinflated and we are seeing that here. New England looks like the team from 2007 that went undefeated as in losing does not seen to be an option at this point but the Patriots have not been as dominant as that team. Only three of the seven wins have been by double-digits where back in 2007, the first eight wins were all by double-digits. The Redskins are getting six more points than the Dolphins were getting which is too big of an adjustment. New England has had some extra time for this one which is always an edge but Washington is coming off its bye week so it has had more time to rest, recuperate and prepare. The Redskins are now 3-4 following a win over Tampa Bay in which they came back from a 24-0 deficit and that should provide them with a ton of confidence. Getting two touchdowns in this league is way too much unless you are a bottom feeder and the Patriots have had their share of issues as they have gone 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games when favored by -13 or more points. Additionally, we play against favorites of 10.5 or more points after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (461) Washington Redskins |
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11-08-15 | Rams +2 v. Vikings | Top | 18-21 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the RAMS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Vikings pulled off another big win last week in Chicago as two big pass plays set up the game-tying touchdown and game-winning field goal. They have won five of their last games following a season opening loss in San Francisco and Minnesota has covered every game since then as well. This is the start of six games against potential playoff teams, all of which have winning records, and this is a tough spot here as Minnesota has yet to defeat a team with a winning record. The Rams have won two in a row and at 4-3, they are just a game and a half behind Arizona in the NFC West. The possess two impressive wins over Seattle and Arizona and with Todd Gurley in the lineup, this offense has turned things around quickly. Defensively, they are one of the best in pressuring the quarterback and they match up very well here. The Rams have quality depth all along the defensive line and are tied for second in the league with 23 sacks. Their best chances of slowing Adrian Peterson will come from their tackles disrupting the Vikings at the point of attack. They fall into a great situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 137-83 ATS (62.3 percent) since 1983. Head coach Jeff Fisher has especially been great in similar spots as his teams are 11-2 ATS in road games after allowing nine points or less last game. 10* (455) St. Louis Rams |
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11-05-15 | Browns +12 v. Bengals | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -125 | 35 h 34 m | Show |
It was made official this morning that Johnny Manziel will start for Cleveland Thursday night against the Bengals. While we pretty much knew that was coming anyone, it made no matter on who we were taking in this divisional rivalry. The Browns have struggled the last couple games against the Rams and Cardinals to fall to 2-6 overall as they will miss the playoffs yet again. Still, this is a big rivalry game and the Browns would love to be the team that hands the Bengals their first loss of the season. We thought that team was Pittsburgh last week and the Steelers were looking great until the fourth quarter as a pair of late Ben Roethlisberger interceptions did them in. The Bengals were outgained for the third time in four games including two straight so while the winning has been nice, it has not been dominating. Despite a perfect record, Cincinnati is outgaining opponents by just 25.4 ypg which is certainly not great. Still, the Bengals have covered all but one games this season and that was a push against the Seahawks in another miracle comeback. Even though this roster is filled with talent, it is still a team with many questions. The Browns fall into a simple yet very effective situation where we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points after three or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins. This situation is 38-14 ATS (73.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (305) Cleveland Browns |
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11-02-15 | Colts +7 v. Panthers | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
The Colts have been a major disappointment this season as they come into tonight at 3-4 and a loss tonight puts them into a tie with Houston in what is currently the worst division in the league. Andrew Luck has been a big reason for that and it has been reported that he was playing with not only a bad shoulder but cracked ribs. It should not be a huge deal as this is not uncommon. The Panthers are off to a 6-0 start and while Denver was the most fraudulent perfect team prior to last night before the very impressive win, Carolina now holds that claim. The Panthers are outgaining opponents by just five ypg and while the defense is solid, the offense is not going to run away from anyone. Carolina can distance itself from Atlanta which lost its second game of the season yesterday but this is a big number for the Panthers to cover. Under Luck, the Colts have won 15 out of 16 games when coming off a straight up cover loss and they fall into a solid contrarian situation. We play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 14 or more ppg in the first half, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 68-31 ATS (68.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Panthers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing their last game at home while the Colts are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (275) Indianapolis Colts |
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11-01-15 | Packers v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 58 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on DENVER for our SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME. NBC could not have asked for a better matchup to face off against the World Series, there was no sweep, as a battle of undefeated teams square off in primetime. The Broncos and Packers are both coming off bye weeks and both have been extremely successful when playing with a week of rest so there is no edge either way. With what we have seen so far, Green Bay is the better team as a whole as the Broncos have hit a few problems along the way but have managed to escape defeat. Still, being the home underdog here is a bit surprising even though the offense is struggling as Denver has not been a home underdog since September of 2012. Defensively, Denver is the better team and that will be a big asset this week. Despite a perfect record, Green Bay has been outgained in three of their six wins and this is just its second road game since opening week. Here, we play on any team after a game where they committed three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 73-36 ATS (67 percent) since 1983. Denver is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games against teams that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg on the season while going 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a spread loss. 10* (274) Denver Broncos |
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11-01-15 | Seahawks v. Cowboys +6 | Top | 13-12 | Win | 100 | 54 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on DALLAS for our SUNDAY ENFORCER. The Cowboys were the preseason pick from many to win the NFC East but when Tony Romo went down with a broken collarbone, all bets were off. Dallas somehow had to get through the stretch of his absence by keeping close to the top of the division and it is actually still there because of the mediocrity of the rest of the division. Dallas has gone 0-4 and while it is still in the mix, losing many more games will take a hit. A win here would be monumental and after outgaining the Giants by 171 total yards last week, a win is far from out of the question. The Seahawks looked like the Seahawks of old last week in San Francisco as the defense dominated the 49ers in a 20-3 victory, outgaining San Francisco by 246 total yards. It was a big road win and a big win in general to remain two games behind Arizona in the NFC West. However, that was the first road win in four chances this season as the highway continues to sit way below the home dominance. Dallas falls into a great situation where we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing nine points or less last game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (272) Dallas Cowboys |
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11-01-15 | Bengals v. Steelers | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on PITTSBURGH for our AFC GAME OF THE WEEK. The return of Ben Roethlisberger could not have come at a better time with Cincinnati coming to town. The Steelers survived without him by going 2-2 in the four games he did not start and they get him back for the big game to stay within the division. We played against Pittsburgh last week in Kansas City with one of those reasons being the fact it had lost a game against the spread up to that point. That logic calls for going against Cincinnati this week as it comes in 5-0-1 ATS record gives value going the other way. Despite a 6-0 record, other than the opener against the Raiders, the Bengals have not outgained any other team by more than 60 total yards and have actually been outgained twice. Pittsburgh has won 10 of its last 12 home games coming off a double-digit loss and additionally, the Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against teams with a winning road record while the Bengals are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. While the top to bottom roster may be better than the Steelers, Cincinnati is not as dominant as it should be for a team that is undefeated. Pittsburgh avoids a 3.5-game deficit in the division with a big win Sunday and hands the Bengals their first loss. 10* (264) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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11-01-15 | 49ers +9 v. Rams | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -120 | 50 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on SAN FRANCISCO for our SUNDAY ULTIMATE UNDERDOG. The Niners have been all over the place this season. They looked great in their season opening win over Minnesota only to look horrendous in their next three games prior to a solid game against the Giants and a win over Baltimore and than last week happened. San Francisco was dominated by Seattle but we can't take too much out of that considering the Seahawks have dominated that series even when the 49ers were really good. Point being, the 49ers are not as bad as they have looked in some of their losses but are now getting their biggest line of the season. The Rams took care of Cleveland last week but they have yet to win consecutive games this season, going 0-2 after its first two wins, and is 1-5 since the start of last season following a victory. While this is a decent team and an improved squad, St. Louis is laying its biggest pointspread since Christmas Eve of 2005 which was the last time it laid more than a touchdown. The Rams are not that good to be doing it in this matchup as the gap is not this big. Additionally, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 93-46 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (259) San Francisco 49ers |
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11-01-15 | Vikings v. Bears +1 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on CHICAGO for our SUNDAY SUPREME ANNIHILATOR. The Vikings were a sexy pick to make the playoffs this season and they are living up to those expectations so far with a 4-2 record following their win last Sunday against Detroit. It is hard to get a grasp of how good Minnesota is with that record considering it has been outgained in four of its six games including two of three on the road. The Vikings will be seeking a third straight win for the first time in three years and going back they are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 road games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. The Bears are far from out of its and have been playing very solid before they hit their bye last week. They had won two straight games before losing a tough one in overtime against the Lions. This is the first time they have been home in a month and despite being just 1-2 in three home games, Chicago has outgained all three opponents and that includes games against Green Bay and Arizona. While making the playing is probably already a longshot for the Bears, a win here is huge as a loss will be detrimental. The Vikings opened as favorites here but the line has since shifted the other way so while we missed the better number, I don't expect that come into play. 10* (254) Chicago Bears |
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10-26-15 | Baltimore Ravens +9.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Baltimore hits the west coast for the second straight week with its season hanging in the balance. The Ravens are a surprising 1-5 and while many will call them dead already, the schedule sets up very well going forward as they have a three-game homestand on deck while moving more forward, six of their next eight games are at home. A sixth loss will be detrimental but we aren't totally concerned with that here as the cover is in our interest and this line has gone through the roof. A big reason is the fact that Baltimore has yet to cover a game this season and with the public being a player of the favorite on Monday nights, the linesmakers had to make the overadjustment here. Arizona is coming off its second loss of the season last week at Pittsburgh so a win here is big for the Cardinals to avoid its lead in the NFC West to shrink to a half-game over the Rams. They have the highest point differential in the NFL which helps with the line as well as it has reached a point that Arizona is not accustomed to. Being favored by more than a touchdown is a rarity and not a successful number for the Cardinals as they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite between 7.5 and 14 points. Additionally, the Ravens fall into a fantastic league-wide contrarian situation where we play on road teams with a losing record on the season after five or more consecutive losses against the spread. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Baltimore's five losses this season are by a total of 22 points which further shows how much this line is off by. 10* (475) Baltimore Ravens |
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10-25-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Kansas City Chiefs -2 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 46 h 12 m | Show |
This game has been off the board for most of the week because of the status of Ben Roethlisberger but offensive coordinator Todd Haley told reporters he's planning for Jones to start Sunday. The Steelers are coming off a huge win last Sunday against the Cardinals as they were held to four field goals but managed to win by 12 points despite getting outgained by 159 total yards, the third straight game they have been outyarded by their opponent. Pittsburgh has yet to have lost against the spread depending on the closing line and that is putting the public on its side. The Chiefs have dropped five straight games after a season opening win against Houston but some of those could have gone either way as they have outgained there of those five opponents. Kansas City has lost both home games which are two of the games it could have won which is a great spot here as the Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, we play against favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (456) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-25-15 | Cleveland Browns +7 v. St Louis Rams | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -130 | 46 h 11 m | Show |
The Browns have been involved in three straight games that have been decided by three points, the last two coming in overtime, and overall they have gone 1-2 in those games. Cleveland is 2-4 and this is a huger game with a home game against Arizona on deck and then four straight divisional games. The Rams are coming off their bye week which could be a good thing as they were defeated in Green Bay by two touchdowns but the bye week is not what it used to be. It has been close to a month since the Rams were home last which is a big reason they are favored by this many points. St. Louis has certainly improved but the big chalk has not been kind as they failed to cover their last two in this role and anything over a field goal is huge. Cleveland falls into a great situation as we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .401 and .499 that are coming off a road loss and playing a bad team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 25-6 (80.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game. 10* (453) Cleveland Browns |
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10-25-15 | NY Jets +10 v. New England Patriots | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 10 m | Show |
The Patriots are coming off a big win last week in Indianapolis which was a big retribution game from the AFC Championship despite having won that game last season. They seem to be on a mission right now but we cannot ignore the fact they have defeated only one team with a winning record and that was the opener of the season against Pittsburgh in an eclectic atmosphere at home. Even though this is a return game at home in a divisional battle, there is a sense of a letdown which is certainly not going on with the other side. The Jets are 4-1 and playing with confidence following consecutive wins over Washington and Miami which may be considered poor wins but are not considered victories to turn into letdowns. This is big number for New England to be laying in a divisional game against a team that is just one game back as it is once again a big pubic play. The Jets defense has been one of the best in the league this season and while shutting the Patriots down in not likely, slowing them down certainly is. And this is one of the better Jets offenses we have seen in a while so the potential is there to keep up. New York has covered four straight games against winning teams while going back, has covered four straight games in this series. 10* (459) New York Jets |
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10-25-15 | New Orleans Saints v. Indianapolis Colts -4 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 10 m | Show |
Had the Colts won last week against New England, this game would be off the radar but the fact they lost, it puts them in a great situation at home. Prior to that loss, they had won three straight divisional games so they are again in great position in the AFC South but they cannot be giving up any more non-divisional games. The Colts three losses have come against teams .500 or better so the fact that they have been outgained in every game this season cushions it somewhat. Now Indianapolis faces a team that has won the yardage battle just once this season, against a Tony Romo-less Cowboys. The Saints are coming off an upset win against division rival Atlanta and hitting the road is not a good thing here. The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against teams averaging 5.65 or more yppl and they fall into a great situation where we play on favorites that are allowing 7.5 or more passing ypa, after allowing 7.0 or more passing ypa in two straight games. This situation is 40-18 ATS (69 percent) over the last five seasons. Going back, New Orleans is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a victory while going 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in its previous game. 10* (468) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-22-15 | Seattle Seahawks -6.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
Last week we saw a home underdog cash and win outright as New Orleans handed Atlanta its first loss of the season and while we always respect primetime home underdogs, this week's situation is a lot different. Whether Seattle is going through a Super Bow hangover has yet to be determined but the Seahawks have missed out on numerous chances to have a better record than their current 2-4 shows. Their four fourth-quarter blown leads are not only the most in the league this season but they are the most any team has suffered in its first six games since the 1999 Saints. Making matters worse, Seattle is being outscored 55-27 in the fourth quarter, the second-worst differential in the NFL. Not to defend the collapses much but the Seahawks have faced the second-toughest schedule of any team so far and should have ample opportunities to make up ground in the NFC playoff race as they have only four games left against teams currently above .500. The 49ers have had a rough start as well but theirs was expected. They are 2-4 as well and despite winning last week against Baltimore, they have lost four of five and have been outgained in all five games by a combined 674 total yards. Playing a second straight home game leading into Thursday night helps but there are too many weaknesses on this team and much better San Francisco teams from the recent past have had no success against Seattle, losing five of the last six meetings. Here, we play against underdogs or pickems that are allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (303) Seattle Seahawks |
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10-19-15 | NY Giants +5.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 7-27 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
The Giants are arguably the best two-loss team in the NFL. You can make a case for Arizona which lost yesterday and is still +88 in point differential but New York is the team that could very well be 6-0 right now if not for two fourth quarter gaffes that cost them. The NFC East remains wide open and when looking at divisional games, the typical spread is three points which is the home field edge but this one has gone north of that. While the Giants may be a surprise, the Eagles have been a disappointment although they finally put together their best game of the season last week against the Saints and momentum is a big thing. However, the Giants also has their most lopsided games within the numbers last week against the 49ers as they outgained San Francisco by 145 total yards despite the narrow three-point win. The Giants are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games against teams allowing 260 or more passing ypg while going 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games after a win by six points or less. Under Tom Coughlin, New York is 22-7 ATS after two or more straight win and the Giants fall into a great league-wide situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after a win by three or less points. This situation is 68-34 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. Look for the Giants to stay within this inflated number and the outright win is far from out of the question. 10* (275) New York Giants |
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10-18-15 | New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts +10 | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 20 m | Show |
This is one of the most highly anticipated games of the early season as it is a rematch of last season's AEC Championship and the infamous "Deflategate". Many are pointing toward the Patriots out to seek revenge and prove a point that cheating was not part of that game but that is far from a motivator in my opinion. Extra motivation is not needed in this matchup and if anything, it will be the Colts out to avenge that 38-point thrashing last January. After a 0-2 start, the Colts came upon three straight divisional games and they won them all with two of those coming with Matt Hasselbeck playing quarterback. Andrew Luck is back this week and while his success against the Patriots has been lacking as he has never defeated them, things could be different here. New England looks to be on a mission and while it looks unbeatable right now, this number makes no sense. The Patriots were favored by a touchdown at home last year and now being favored by even more than that on the road this time around is too much of an adjustment. After defeating Pittsburgh in an ideal situation to open the season, the Patriots have had a very favorable schedule facing two teams with new starting quarterbacks and hosting Jacksonville. The Colts are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better while going 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg. Additionally, we play against road favorites outgaining opponents by 70 or more passing ypg on the season, after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game. This situation is 70-33 ATS (68 percent) since 1983. 10* (274) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-18-15 | San Diego Chargers +11 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 52 h 15 m | Show |
Not many are giving the Chargers a chance here and that includes the linesmakers. San Diego is off to a rough start this season as it sits 2-3 following a loss as time expired on Monday night against the Steelers. That was a game they could have won as was a game at Cincinnati earlier in the season so they are better than their record indicated. That is proven by the fact they have outgained four of five opponents and the only negative margin came against the Bengals by just 35 total yards. The schedule has been on the side of the Packers as after opening against the lowly Bears, this is the fourth time in the last five games they have been at home and with a bye week on deck, they should be fully focused which we won't deny. But laying this kind of lumber against a team that moves the ball very well is simply too much. Green Bay is the lone 5-0 ATS team in the NFL and that is also playing a role with this number. Philip Rivers leads the NFL in passing yards but the key here could be the running game as Todd Gurley ran roughshod through the Packers defense last weekend and Melvin Gordon could be in line for a monster game as he has four runs of 20-plus yards. Stopping Aaron Rodgers will not happen but this has the makings of a shootout and San Diego can no doubt keep up. Green Bay is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games against teams allowing 6 or more yppl and it falls into a negative situation where we play against favorites of 10.5 or more points after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa in two straight games going up against an opponent after gaining 7 or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (269) San Diego Chargers |
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10-18-15 | Miami Dolphins +1.5 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 51 m | Show |
Miami is off to a dismal 1-3 start and following its most recent loss in London, the Dolphins fired head coach Joe Philbin and gave the interim position to Dan Campbell and we will see a very inspired effort from the team. Players in all sports tend to step it up when a new coach takes over and the Dolphins will be no different this week as this is much win game to keep any sort of playoff hopes alive. Tennessee let one slip away last week against the Bills as it fell to 1-3 including losses in each of the its three games. The Titans have blown double-digit leads in the last two games and confidence is shaky right now. Miami is ranked 28th in total offense at 314.8 ypg and second-to-last in rushing at 69.3 ypg. Ryan Tannehill's 56.7 completion percentage and 77.1 passer rating are both among the worst in the NFL, while Lamar Miller's averaging 3.5 ypc after posting a career-best 5.1 in 2014. While it looks bleak, the Dolphins face a very poor Titans defense. Tennessee is in a tough spot where it has not had success as it is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games against teams with a losing record while going 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games coming off one or more consecutive losses. Miami meanwhile falls into two excellent league-wide situations. First, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on road teams that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg, after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (265) Miami Dolphins |
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10-18-15 | Denver Broncos v. Cleveland Browns +5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 49 h 51 m | Show |
Cleveland seems to be relevant again as it sits 2-3 on the season but a couple breaks here and there and the Browns could feasibly be 4-1 with the lone bad game coming against the Jets in their season opener. They are coming off a big win last Sunday in overtime against the Ravens and this is the first of three straight non-divisional games prior to playing four straight games against AFC North foes. The Broncos escaped once again to improve to 5-0 on the season and they arguably remain the worst remaining undefeated team in the NFL. They are outgaining opponents by less than 25 ypg as the offense remains very inconsistent. The Broncos are averaging 302 ypg which is 30th overall while their seven interceptions, all on Peyton Manning, sits 31st. Manning's 79 pass attempts against the blitz rank second most in the NFL, according to STATS, LLC. He's on pace to throw 212 passes against blitzes, more than any quarterback last season while his 12 passing plays of more than 20 yards ranks 26th and he has completed only five of 19 passes of at least 21 yards. The running game is not helping out as Denver is averaging just 71. 6 ypg which is 30th in the league. The Browns will face one the best defenses in the league but the Broncos will be without linebacker Demarcus Ware while cornerback Aqib Talib has an ankle injury and could be out as well. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better that are coming off a win against a division rival. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons. The Browns are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (252) Cleveland Browns |
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10-15-15 | Atlanta Falcons v. New Orleans Saints +4 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
The Falcons remained undefeated with an overtime win over Washington last Sunday and now they hit the road on short rest over their biggest rival that is in desperate need of a victory. Atlanta failed to cover for the first time this season last week and they are a road favorite here for the first time since 2012 and are a road favorite anywhere for the first time since last season. The Saints picked up their first win of the season two weeks ago in overtime against Dallas which snapped a six-game home losing streak but gave it back last week against the Eagles who were in a similar spot as they were in desperate need of a win, Predicting turnovers is next to impossible but the law of averages tend to even things out as the season progresses or in better terms, cuts down the true extrapolation. Basically, teams that are +5 in turnover margin are not likely going to finish +15 and teams -5 are not likely going to finish -15. That being said, these teams are on opposite ends of turnover margin as the Falcons are +5 and the Saints are -5 and the records are reflective of this. And because of those records, lines are affected and we are seeing that here. This also works on a game-by-game basis as the Saints have a favorable situation on their side as we play against favorites after a game where they committed three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed four or more turnovers. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Falcons are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games and while the Saints have struggled at home against poor teams, going back, they are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (104) New Orleans Saints |
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10-12-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers +4 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
The Chargers have failed to cover three straight games and while that is typically a run I like to go against, this suspect line sets up for a play on the Steelers. With Michael Vick at quarterback for the Steelers, the public is fading them yet the line has barely moved and even with Vick, Pittsburgh has numerous matchup advantages here. He only had a couple of practices to fit into the offense before the Baltimore debacle but now has had a week-and-a-half leading the first string, so the hope is that Vick finds himself on the same page as his receivers. The Chargers are ranked 29th in the league against the run, allowing an average of 126.8 ypg and an NFL high 4.9 ypc. They have allowed two 100-yard rushers in the past three games which will benefit Le'Veon Bell, who had 129 yards rushing on 22 carries against a Baltimore defense that had not allowed a 100-yard rusher in the previous 29 games. Defensively, the Steelers have 14 sacks in four games which puts them on pace for 64 for the season, almost double their 2014 total of 33 sacks. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has been sacked 12 times, second most in the AFC, and the pressure has resulted in two of his four interceptions being returned for touchdowns. San Diego has covered just one in its last 11 games against AFC opponents while Pittsburgh is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games against teams averaging 7.5 or more passing ypa. Additionally, the Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss and that comes down to coaching which is another significant edge for Pittsburgh tonight. Anything over the key number of +3 is a solid take for tonight. 10* (475) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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10-11-15 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 58 m | Show |
Six undefeated teams remain in the NFL and we can argue that more than half of those could easily have a defeat right now and some even more. Denver is on that list for sure. The Broncos trailed the Ravens late but used a 51-yard interception return for a touchdown to take the lead and then used a fumble return for a touchdown against the Chiefs for a similar result. Denver outscored Detroit 10-0 in the fourth quarter to pull away from the Lions while last week, it needed a field goal with less than two minutes left to defeat the Vikings. Not saying they should be 0-4 but they are very fortunate to be undefeated and now they hit the road and are favorites against a very improved Oakland team. The Raiders are 2-2 and the talent is there to try and make a run as they finally have playmakers on offense. Despite getting outgained by 128 yards last week in Chicago, it was a game they could have won. It was their second straight road game in the midwest which is never an easy task especially with a pair of divisional games on deck but heading home against a vulnerable Denver team will have them extremely fired up and a chance to get right back in the division. Just looking at the line shows us how much the gapped has closed between these tow teams. Denver has been favored by double-digits in each of the last five meetings and now is favored by a much lower number and that shows us it is take time as Oakland has the potential to win the first meeting in this series since September, 2011. Going back, the Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss and have covered four of their last five at home. Oakland has not covered a game in this series since that last win in 2011 and we can see both streaks come to an end here. 10* (472) Oakland Raiders |
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10-11-15 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 95 h 36 m | Show |
We played against Seattle on Monday night and grabbed the cover but we will be backing the Seahawks this week as they can use the break they attained to carry some momentum into this big game. By now everyone has heard the situation that possibly cost the Lions at outright win and saved Seattle from falling to 1-3 and while that is not an insurmountable hole, sitting at 2-2 is a lot better and moving to 3-2 here would be huge after a 0-2 start to the season. The Seahawks remain the favorites to win the division and while the host is 4-0 in their games this season, that should come to an end this week. Cincinnati is off to a 4-0 start and many are calling the Bengals one of the best teams on the league but I am not sold on this team quite yet. The rolled over Oakland but had trouble with San Diego and Baltimore before pulling away from Kansas City last week. Give credit to their defense last week as they allowed 21 points but that was the result of seven field goals for the Chiefs but a lot of that blame can be put on Kansas City and its offense. The Chiefs piled on 461 yards and had nearly a 15-minute advantage in time of possession but could not execute when necessary and part of the fact is that Kansas City ranks last in the NFL in number of plays per drive. Seattle got 3.5 in Green Bay earlier in the season and now it is getting close to the same here and while the Bengals have been solid, they are not on the level of Green Bay quite yet so I think there is definitely value here as well. Here ,we play against home teams that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 335 and 370 ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 23-6 ATS (79.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (465) Seattle Seahawks |
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10-11-15 | Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -115 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
While Jacksonville is just 1-3, the Jaguars have looked pretty good. Sans a blowout loss against the Patriots, they have outgained their other three opponents including winning the yardage battle last week against Indianapolis by 105 total yards but suffered a tough loss in overtime. Jacksonville is playing its third straight road game and while that may not seem like a good situation to take, the fact of the matter is that teams playing their third straight road game coming off losses in the first two games are a solid 26-16 ATS. And the travel here is minimal going from Jacksonville to Tampa. Tampa Bay also checks in at 1-3 and it too is coming off a yardage win last week but a loss on the scoreboard here against Carolina. The weather played a big role in both aspects so it is hard to take stock into that one too much but the Buccaneers come in as favorites for the second time this season and they were trounced by Tennessee in the first game they were favored in. going back, Tampa Bay is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite and all eight of those spread losses were outright losses as well. Statistically speaking, these teams are pretty equal and the big edge for the Jaguars is at quarterback as Blake Bortles has been pretty solid after a tough opener against Carolina. He has five touchdowns and just one interception his last three games while Jameis Winston has only one solid game and three duds. Tampa Bay is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games prior to its bye week and the Jaguars fall into a great situation where we play on road teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a road loss. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons including 17-2 ATS over the last five years and 9-1 ATS over the last three years. 10* (451) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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10-11-15 | Cleveland Browns +7 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 95 h 30 m | Show |
A pair of 1-3 AFC North teams square off with the loser likely already out of the division so this makes for the first real big game this season. Cleveland and Baltimore are both 1-3 and while the Ravens are statistically the better team at this point, they are the one that feasibly could be 0-4 at this point as they were fortunate to come away with an overtime win last week in Pittsburgh. At the same token, the three losses have been by six, four and four points so there feasibly could be other wins in there. Nonetheless, with this being a divisional game and not that much separation between the two teams, there is no way this line should be as high as it is. Cleveland has dropped its last two games with the latest being last week at San Diego as it lost on a field goal as time expires. The Browns were outgained by just six yards in that game so it was a difficult loss as they blew three different leads. This is the first division game for Cleveland so they arguably have the edge over Baltimore in that regard as running the table is still a possibility, although unlikely. Teams playing on the road coming off a road loss have been a solid proposition, hitting over 64 percent since 1983 and the Browns also fall into a situation going against the Ravens as we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win by three points or less over a division rival, with a losing record. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Cleveland is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after one or more consecutive losses. The scoring differential between these two teams is just around one point but the spread is not taking that into consideration, rather than what has transpired in the past. 10* (455) Cleveland Browns |
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10-11-15 | Washington Redskins +8 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 19-25 | Win | 100 | 95 h 30 m | Show |
We lost with the Falcons last week as the game was over before it started so after that horrendous call, we come right back with Washington. Atlanta is one of the bigger surprises in the NFL this season as it is off to a 4-0 start, both straight up and against the number. Most impressive has been the last two games as the Falcons between the end of the Cowboys game and the start of the Texans game, they rolled off 67 unanswered points. The Houston game was the lone game of the first four that Atlanta actually dominated however as it had to come from behind against Dallas while the Falcons easily could have lost their first two games against the Eagles and Giants. Washington is 2-2 following a win over the Eagles last Sunday as it scored the game-winning touchdown with less than a minute remaining. A 2-2 record has the Redskins tied with the Giants and Cowboys for first place in the NFC East so their start is surprising as well. Maybe even more surprising is the fact Washington has outgained all four of its opponents and overall, is outgaining foes by an average of 95 ypg which is a pretty significant differential. Only the Cardinals at 98.2 ypg has a higher differential so this spread is based on records and expectations heading into the season, namely that of the Redskins supposedly stinking up the joint. I'm not saying the Redskins are the better team but there is no way they should be this big of an underdog yet this is still a very winnable game. This is a horrendous spot for Atlanta as it is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games coming off a home win by 21 points or more, 3-20 ATS in its last 23 home games coming off a home win and 2-14 ATS in its last 16 home games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread. 10* (457) Washington Redskins |
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10-08-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
After a 0-2 start, the Colts have rebounded with wins in their last two games to take over first place in the AFC South. Indianapolis has not looked like the same team that went to the AFC Championship last year as it has been outgained in all four games but this team is due for a complete domination and Houston looks like the perfect victim. The Texans were destroyed last week in Atlanta as they lost by 27 points despite outgaining the Falcons by 50 total yards. Of course, of their 428 total yards, 219 of those came in garbage time when they were down 42-0. The defense is considered the strength but got gashed last week and with Andrew Luck rested after a week off, the Colts should be able to get their offense finally on track. Houston rushed for just 54 yards on 17 carries (3.2 ypc) and is averaging just 3.7 ypc on the season while the quarterback situation is an absolute mess. The Colts are 18-1 in their last 19 games against AFC South foes including 15 straight wins. Granted, the last two came down to the final seconds including the last one in overtime but the dominance is still the most important factor. The Colts fall into a great situation where we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a poor first half defense that allows 14 or more ppg, after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Indianapolis has covered 11 of its last 12 Thursday night games while Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five Thursday night contests. 10* (301) Indianapolis Colts ***Andrew Luck will not start but is available. This is still a play as the line move is big and will possibly go up more. He is available to play however and I would not be surprised to see him.*** |
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10-05-15 | Detroit Lions +10.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 58 h 17 m | Show |
The Seahawks picked up their first win of the season as they pulled away from Chicago in the second half to snap their early two-game skid. They have won six straight home games and while they possess one of the best home field advantages in the NFL, if not the best, they are definitely overvalued based on last week and what the Lions have done to start the season. Detroit is off to a 0-3 and the season is likely done with a loss here. Getting a win will not be easy but we are more concerned about the number they are getting and it is inflated despite them still being a quality team. Detroit blew a 21-3 lead in San Diego and allowed 30 unanswered points to lose by five points. Turnover did them in against Minnesota and last week, Detroit was down by just two points midway through the fourth quarter before the Broncos scored the final 10 points to pull away. The problem has been giving up points in bunches and let's face it, Seattle does have the dynamic offense to do that. Seattle has three touchdowns from defense and special teams and while that is always a danger, it is something that cannot be counted on. The Seahawks are at Cincinnati next week which makes this a big game for them as well but laying this number is no guarantee as they are just 6-6-1 ATS in their last 13 games as double-digit favorites. Also, Seattle is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games against teams averaging 3.0 or fewer ypc and 6-19 ATS in its last 25 games off a home win by 21 or more points while Detroit is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games coming off a home loss by 10 or more points. 10* (277) Detroit Lions |
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10-04-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -3 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertain status of Saints quarterback Drew Brees but he will go on Sunday night against the Cowboys. The line opened at -4.5 at BetOnline but came down a full point in less than an hour. We waited for it settle in at -3 across the board and while we are paying for extra juice as of now, I can see it rising more by gametime. The Saints are in desperation mode at this points, sitting at 0-3 and trailing the 3-0 Falcons and Panthers by three games so this is obviously a must win game for New Orleans. The home loss against Tampa Bay was shocking but going back to last season, New Orleans has lost six straight regular season games at home and that goes up to eight games total including two preseason games from this year. That is unheard of for a Sean Payton team which prior to last season, had not lost back-to-back home games since 2009 and still went on to win the Super Bowl. Dallas started off great last week, opening a 28-14 lead before allowing the Falcons to run off 25 straight points. Losing is one thing but losing like that can be lingering and now hitting the road against a desperate Saints team makes it even tougher. This will be the first road start for Brandon Weeden and while he was solid in relief of Tony Romo in Philadelphia two weeks ago, he is tough to trust here. The Saints fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on home with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 132-78 ATS (6239 percent) since 1983. 10* (276) New Orleans Saints |
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10-04-15 | Green Bay Packers v. San Francisco 49ers +9.5 | Top | 17-3 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 24 m | Show |
The Packers are off to a 3-0 start and coming off a national televised win on Monday in game that was not as close as the final score indicates while the 49ers have been annihilated the last two weeks. Who do you think the public will be pounding here? Last week, San Francisco was down 14-0 after just seven offensive plays thanks to a pair of interception returns and it was done there and then. Everyone is counting the 49ers out and that quarterback Colin Kaepernick is done but this is exactly the time players and teams step up. Conversely, the Packers looked unstoppable last week but teams coming off big Monday wins are often susceptible the following week. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is being compared to Michael Jordan and while he is one of the best, he is different on the road than at home where he has been unbeatable. The line is no doubt reflecting the recent play from both sides and we can look back to just last week at the 49ers were getting seven points in Arizona and are now getting more than that at home so the linesmakers are making a huge overadjustment. The 49ers have two great situations on their side. First, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg after allowing 35 points or more last game. This situation is 53-21 ATS (71.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by four or more ppg, after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (270) San Francisco 49ers |
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10-04-15 | Minnesota Vikings +7 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 73 h 22 m | Show |
While I consider the Panthers to be the worst of the seven undefeated teams in the NFL, the Broncos are not far behind. They were fortunate to defeat both Baltimore and Kansas City and needed a late touchdown last Sunday night to pull away from Detroit. Clearly, the defense is keeping this team above water as Peyton Manning had regressed considerably and the running game has been non-existent. While we are only three games in, the Broncos are averaging just 290.7 ypg which is third to last in the NFL. This after finishing fourth in total offense last season and first in 2013. Minnesota looked pretty bad on opening weekend against San Francisco but it has bounced back the last two weeks thanks also to a stout defense. The passing offense has struggled behind Teddy Bridgewater but the return of Adrian Peterson has been as expected as he has rushed for 260 yards on 5.3 ypc. While the Broncos did not let the Lions run game get going, they allowed Jamaal Charles to rush for 125 yards on 21 carries (5.95 ypg) two weeks ago. The Vikings' defense has five sacks over the past two weeks and coach Mike Zimmer has a history of giving Manning fits. Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining 150 or fewer passing yards last game and it falls into an awesome situation. We play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (271) Minnesota Vikings |
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10-04-15 | Houston Texans +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 21-48 | Loss | -135 | 70 h 9 m | Show |
We lost playing against the Falcons last week against the Cowboys as they were able rally from a 28-14 deficit by scoring the final 25 points of the game. They are off to a surprising 3-0 start but have been hardly dominant as they have outgained opponents by just 101 total yards combined and have actually trailed in the fourth quarter of each game. Atlanta has covered all three games as well but it was the underdog in each of those games at close and now all of sudden they are a hefty favorite. This is the most they have been favored by at home since Week Five in 2013 against the Jets. Houston won and covered last week to pick up its first win of the season. The Texas are outgaining opponents by 111 yards on the season so there is certainly not much different than the Falcons. The offense has been inconsistent but the defense keeps them in games and the running game could get a boost with the return of Arian Foster who is a gametime decision this week. The Falcons gave up 131 yards rushing in the first half against the Cowboys so they are very vulnerable which falls right into the gameplan of Houston. Here, we play against home teams (that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 335 and 370 ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Atlanta is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 home games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread. 10* (255) Houston Texans |
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10-04-15 | Kansas City Chiefs +4 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 21-36 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 8 m | Show |
The Chiefs are coming off their second straight loss as they were pounded by Green Bay on Monday night which came after an unfathomable loss the previous Thursday against the Broncos. While throwing out "must win" this early in the season may not seem reasonable, this is a big game for the Chiefs as falling to 1-3 and already having a loss against the Broncos could put them in a very tough position going forward. Playing the second consecutive road game is far from an issue and head coach Andy Reid has thrived in these spots as his teams have gone 26-13 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. The Bengals are one of seven undefeated teams in the league and one of six teams to have covered all three games. That presents us with value as people are riding high on Cincinnati right now and while it is a very good team, this is a bad spot. Not only are the Bengals coming off a big win last week in Baltimore, but they host Seattle next week which is not an ideal situation to be in. Despite the public burying the Bengals, this line has only moved a half-point on a number that is already too high. Kansas City is 25-8 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games and it falls into a solid situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 and coming off a road loss. This situation is 97-54 ATS (64.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (265) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-04-15 | NY Giants +5.5 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 70 h 6 m | Show |
We were on both the Giants and the Bills last week and both came through with big victories. We are fading the Bills this week however because of the situation and because of the value. Buffalo has opened up 2-1 with big victories over the Colts and Dolphins with the lone defeat coming against the Patriots. Those were three emotionally charged games so the letdown effect has to come. The fact of the matter is that while Buffalo's two wins came by 13 and 27 points, they outgained the opposition by only 75 yards combined. Making matters worse, two of the big playmakers on offense, LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins will be out this week. The Giants picked up their first win last week against Washington on Thursday which was big for confidence following two blown double-digit fourth quarter leads in their first two games. This team could easily be 3-0 right now despite down in the stats column in each of those and are arguably the best team in the NFC East. Because of the record, New York is getting more points than it would be if it happened to be 3-0 or even 2-1 for that matter. The time off between Thursday and Sunday is big for the Giants as head coach Tom Coughlin has five of the last six games following a Thursday game, covering all six. The Giants fall into a great situation where we play on underdogs that opened the season 0-2 and won their most recent game. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1990. Additionally, Buffalo is 9-25 ATS in its last 34 games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. 10* (259) New York Giants |
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10-01-15 | Baltimore Ravens -2.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 34 h 2 m | Show |
Obviously, the Steelers offense took a big hit when Ben Roethlisberger went down Sunday with a sprained MCL. The latest info is that he will be out at least four weeks and that could be just enough time for Pittsburgh to fall out of the playoff race as it does not have a break in the schedule until Week Nine against Oakland. No player is worth six points in this league but that is the line switch from last week to this week so while that clearly gives the Steelers value, there are too many other variables going against them. First and foremost, they are playing on a short week so getting a new gameplan together with very little practice time is difficult to accomplish and nearly impossible. Baltimore is a very desperate team right now as it has started the season 0-3 for the first timer ever and has yet to cover a game on top of it. The Ravens are one of the better 0-3 teams we have seen in quite some time as they have lost the three games by a combined 14 points. History is not on their side as only three teams that started 0-3 have gone on to make the playoffs and nine since the 1998 Bills. This is the only team of the four 0-3 teams that has a legitimate shot at making the postseason as the remaining schedule is not that bad. Of course, this is a must win game as only one 0-4 team has made the playoffs (1992 Chargers). While the Steelers offense will struggle, the defense has to pick up the load and that will not happen. The Ravens are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games coming off a loss as a home favorite. 10* (101) Baltimore Ravens |
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09-28-15 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Green Bay Packers -6 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
The Packers are off to a non-surprising 2-0 start as they took out Chicago Week One and then defeated the Seahawks last week in primetime. While many could consider this a letdown, the fact they have five straight non-divisional games right after this puts them in a position where they can run the table and start off 8-0 before their next NFC North game which is against the Lions. The Chiefs lost a heartbreaker last week against the Broncos as they allowed two touchdowns in a span of nine seconds in the final minute of the game to even their record out at 1-1. The first game was a suspect victory however as they defeated the Texans but were actually outgained in doing so. It is pretty common knowledge at this point about how good Aaron Rodgers has been at home but the fact that he has thrown 43 touchdowns with no interceptions with a 124 passer rating in his last 18 games at home is pretty amazing. Going back, the Packers have won 31 of their last 32 regular-season home games in which Rodgers was the primary quarterback. This does not count the loss to the Bears two years ago where he left with an injury. He may not have the services of Eddie Lacy tonight but he was a non-factor last week against Seattle and his backup James Starks provides a more than capable backup. While there are some key factors that favor the Packers, they are in a very simple yet effective situation where we play on teams on Monday night that have yet to lose and going up against a non-divisional opponent. This situation is 20-4 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1990. 10* (490) Green Bay Packers |
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09-27-15 | Buffalo Bills +3 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 74 h 2 m | Show |
After a huge win over the Colts in their season opener, the Bill laid an egg last week against the Patriots as Tom Brady torched them for 466 yards passing and three touchdowns while Tyrod Taylor tossed three picks and was sacked eight times. Now they head out for their first road game and it is a very important early season divisional game. The Dolphins are 1-1 and are fortunate not to be 0-2 as they were outgained in both games. Many will expect a bounceback here but I am not one of them as they looked horrible last week against a poor Jaguars team. The Dolphins defense gave up six plays of 21-plus yards to Jacksonville last week. Like the Jets, they are in a historically difficult lookahead situation as they play them in London next week. Teams going over the pond are just 6-14 ATS in the game prior to that including going 3-8 ATS when laying points. This is the first home game for the Dolphins and while public perception thinks that is a good thing, it isn't. Single digit underdogs or favorites are 18-39 ATS in Week Three if it is their first home game. Opposing teams playing in Florida in September is usually a disadvantage but not here as this game is not an early game but an a late afternoon game. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, in September games. This situation is 97-54 ATS (64.2 percent) since 1983. The Bills have covered four straight games following a loss and four straight games in a revenge situation. 10* (485) Buffalo Bills |
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09-27-15 | Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 40 m | Show |
The Eagles are one of a handful of disappointing teams that have started 0-2 with Indianapolis, Seattle and Baltimore being the others. The argument every year is which, if any, of these 0-2 teams will make the playoffs as since 1990, just over 11 percent of the teams that start 0-2 have made the postseason. The Eagles are still in good shape to go so with the NFC East already a mess with the Giants entering this week winless and the Cowboys missing their quarterback for at least two months. Talk radio has been all over the Eagles anemic offense and while that has been the case, it has taken time for these new players to gel together. Sam Bradford has looked skittish, Demarco Murray has gained 11 rushing yards and the offensive line has looked helpless at times. This team will turn things around and this is the ideal spot for it to happen. The Jets are coming off a huge road upset at Indianapolis on Monday and while heading home, they are in a tough letdown spot. Making it tougher, they are in a historically difficult lookahead situation as they play the Dolphins in London next week. Teams going over the pond are just 6-14 ATS in the game prior to that including going 3-8 ATS when laying points. Speaking of laying points, the Jets are favored after being a 3.5-point underdog prior to the games last week so we are seeing a huge overreaction line swing. Adding to the situation, the Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. 10* (467) Philadelphia Eagles |
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09-27-15 | Indianapolis Colts -3 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 35-33 | Loss | -120 | 71 h 39 m | Show |
We lost with the Colts Monday night as they were surprisingly dominated by the Jets on their home turf. The public reaction is that they are done but that could be the furthest from the truth. Even though Indianapolis is 0-2, it is still overwhelming favorites to win the AFC South and that will happen. The main reason is that the Colts have dominated their division over the last few years as they have won 13 straight games within the division and with three straight on deck, they will be 3-2 before facing the Patriots. And they don't just win, they dominate as are a perfect 12-0-1 ATS in those games. Tennessee easily took c\are of Tampa Bay in its first game this season but as good as it looked then, it looked similarly as bad last week against the Browns even though it won the yardage battle. This is the first home game for the Titans and while public perception thinks that is a good thing, it isn't. Single digit underdogs or favorites are 18-39 ATS in Week Three if it is their first home game. Additionally, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This situation is 51-21 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1983. It needs to be noted that the Colts started 0-2 with similar Sunday and Monday losses and then went on the road to hammer Jacksonville which started a five game winning streak. Also, Andrew Luck has never dropped three straight games. 10* (477) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-27-15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Houston Texans -6.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 71 h 38 m | Show |
Houston is off to a 0-2 start and tied with the Colts for last place in the AFC South. The Texans were a sleeper pick to contend with Indianapolis and that could still very well happen as the season just started. The biggest issue is that the ground game has been non-existent as they are averaging just 3.6 ypc but leading rusher Chris Polk expressed confidence that they will turn things around. The Buccaneers allowed four touchdowns to Marcus Mariota in his first ever start so we should see the running game get going as Ryan Mallett should perform much better than last week. Tampa Bay followed up that loss with a big upset at New Orleans last week but it was revealed afterward that Drew Brees was hurt throughout the game and the Saints defense is atrocious. We all know wins have been a rarity for the Buccaneers and I do not expect a similar effort here against a much tougher Texas defense even though the numbers have not shown it yet. Going back, the Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Tampa Bay is 2-10 ATS off a win over a division rival as an underdog of six or more points and falls into a negative situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 106-56 ATS (65.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (466) Houston Texans |
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09-27-15 | Atlanta Falcons v. Dallas Cowboys +2 | Top | 39-28 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 38 m | Show |
The Cowboys were favorites by many to win the NFC East but the chances took a huge hit last week after quarterback Tony Romo broke his collarbone and is out at least eight weeks. The odds have gone up slightly and no one seems to be giving them a chance with Brandon Weeden taking over at quarterback because of his horrible past where he has lost his last seven starts. Here's the deal. He knows the system and will have had a full week of practicing with the first unit. Additionally, he got snaps with the first unit in the past as Romo always takes Wednesday off. After coming in last week, Weeden completed all seven of his pass attempts for 73 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons have rewarded new head coach Dan Quinn with a 2-0 record but they could just as well be 0-2 at this point as they have been very fortunate at the end of games with the Eagles and Giants both stepping on their foots with mistakes. Atlanta was outgained by the Eagles and outgained the Giants by just 14 yards so you can see that the record is skewed. Going back, the Falcons are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games and they fall into a negative situation. We play against favorites that averaged 5.4 or more yppl last season, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Dallas head coach Jason Garrett is 22-9 ATS as an underdog. 10* (480) Dallas Cowboys |
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09-24-15 | Washington Redskins v. NY Giants -3.5 | Top | 21-32 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
The Giants are coming off another tough loss, the second straight game they have blown a late lead and with it came some history they do not want to be associated with. The Giants are the first team to blow double digit fourth quarter leads in consecutive games to start a season. That distinction should have them fired up for this game as they look to avoid a 0-3 start. The good news is that the NFC East is a mess right now with the Eagles looking awful and the Cowboys without Tony Romo for at least eight weeks. Washington blew a lead in their season opener against the Dolphins but came back to defeat the Rams last week. That was more of a St. Louis loss as it was coming a huge home win in overtime against the Seahawks at home. This is the first road game for Washington and going back to 2013, it is 1-13 over its last 14 road games and there is not much to think that is going to change here. The running game needs to get moving for the Giants as they have put up 97 and 99 yards on the ground and going back, they are 20-8 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Meanwhile, the Redskins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Additionally, the Giants fall into a great situation as we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games coming off an upset win as a home underdog. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (302) New York Giants |
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09-21-15 | NY Jets v. Indianapolis Colts -7 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Week Two is what is called the week of overreactions in the NFL and this year is no different. Here we have two teams off different outcomes and because of that, we are getting exceptional line value. Thanks to the Colts loss and the Jets win last week, this spread dropped from -9.5 when it came out prior to the first games to -7 now. It could rise more by gametime so the earlier to bet it the better as it likely only has one way to go. The Colts offense was stymied by Buffalo as the Bill shut down Frank Gore and had a merciless pass rush but don't expect the same from the Jets. The pass rush is lacking and the secondary is banged up so Andrew Luck should have a big rebound game. And he has been the best in the game when it comes to bouncing back as the Colts are 13-1 ATS under his direction coming off a loss which includes them going a perfect 11-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. The Jets looked good against Cleveland last week but they were fortunate that the Brown lost their starting quarterback and even though they won by 21 points, they outgained the Browns by just 12 total yards. The Colts also have a great league-wide situation on their side as we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (290) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-20-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles -5 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -104 | 75 h 50 m | Show |
This is a typical example of overreaction to what transpired Week One as the Eagles lost their opener as a big consensus while Dallas took care of the Giants on a late touchdown drive. We played against the Eagles Monday night and got the win after a big Eagles rally came up short. They looked great in the second half as it seemed to take a little bit for the new players to get into a groove and I expect that to carry over into Sunday. Heading home only helps and being 0-1 will have them highly motivated to get into the win column. The Cowboys definitely caught a break with their victory as poor clock management by New York aided their cause. I certainly do not expect a letdown since it is another divisional game but the public consensus is backing Dallas in this one with a lot of that due to what it did last year as it rolled through the road schedule with a perfect 8-0 record. That included an 11-point win in Philadelphia and that helped the Eagles in missing the playoffs as a 7-2 start turned into a 3-4 finish. The Eagles fall into a great league-wide situation where we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that outscored opponents by four or more ppg last season, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Eagles have covered all six games under head coach Chip Kelly when coming off a road loss, winning those games by an average of 17 ppg. 10* (286) Philadelphia Eagles |
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09-20-15 | Atlanta Falcons v. NY Giants -2 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 25 m | Show |
Week Two is what is called the week of overreactions in the NFL and this year is no different. Here we have two teams off different outcomes and because of that, we are getting exceptional line value. The Giants came through for us Sunday night as they were able to stay within the number and while they blew the outright win, that actually helps us this week. Last season, they lost their opener at Detroit and then came home only to get blown out by Arizona but the situation is much different as they were right in the midst of a scheme chance and Eli Manning looked very uncomfortable. While he didn't have a great game against Dallas, it was good enough for them to win which they realistically should have. The Falcons opened up strong against Philadelphia and were able to hang on against the Eagles and secure the first victory for head coach Dan Quinn. Now the Falcons hit the road and while the mindset of this team is a lot different than last year, I still expect them to struggle outside the dome. The Giants have a simple yet effective situation on their side there we play against teams coming off a win as a home underdog. This situation is 80-42 ATS (65.6 percent) over the last five seasons. That also carries over to Atlanta as the Falcons are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games coming off a win as a home underdog. Meanwhile, the Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (280) New York Giants |
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09-20-15 | San Francisco 49ers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -6 | Top | 18-43 | Win | 100 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
San Francisco pulled off the upset on Monday night over Minnesota although it wasn't a huge upset as the 49ers were getting just 2.5 points at close. Still, not many expected them to win after a number of big offseason losses on both sides of the ball. Now the find themselves in a much tougher spot as they head to the east coast for an early game with another road game on deck against division rival Arizona. The Steelers lost their opener at New England and they could not have been in a more difficult spot playing in the national spotlight in Tom Brady's first game since his suspension was revoked. They fell behind 21-3 and to their credit came fighting back and overall, they ended up outgaining New England by 103 total yards albeit a lot of that came in garbage time. We can expect to see a huge effort in their first home game and the most pleasant surprise from Thursday was the play of running back DeAngelo Williams who rushed for 127 yards on 6.0 ypc and he will be in the spotlight one more game with Le'Veon Bell suspended for one more game. The 49ers were not tested too much against Minnesota but that will not be the case here with Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown ready for another big game. Pittsburgh has been off since Thursday while san Francisco is playing on a short week and heading east, never a good spot. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (266) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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09-20-15 | New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +2.5 | Top | 40-32 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
The Bills won a big game for us last Sunday as they defeated the Colts at home and the situation does not get any easier here. Many called for a 0-2 start from Buffalo and in some cases 0-3 as it heads to Miami next week but I foresee the Bills being 2-0 before facing the Dolphins. A letdown is inevitable at times when coming off a big win like that last week but this game is even bigger so we won't see that here. This team is confident and they now know they have what it takes to chase down New England in the AFC East. The Patriots won on Thursday and while they have the luxury of extra rest and prep time, it is almost negated here since they are traveling and the Bills remaining at home. Tom Brady could not have played better and because of the way he approached that game and the outcome that occurred, the letdown factor actually goes to their side now. Tyrod Taylor shook off the nerves and played a great game with 195 yards passing and 41 yards rushing and he should have another big game here. New England allowed 464 total yards last week and while Buffalo doesn't have the same dynamic offense, success can be attained. As good as the victory was against Indianapolis last week, a loss here basically gives it right back and the Bills could be 1-2 after next week if not careful. Another big factor is head coach Rex Ryan as he has been one of the better coaches when gameplanning against the Patriots and under Brady, they have failed to cover their seven games after facing Pittsburgh. 10* (270) Buffalo Bills |
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09-20-15 | Arizona Cardinals v. Chicago Bears +2.5 | Top | 48-23 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 23 m | Show |
While the Bears lost to Green bay last week, they played a lot better than many expected as they were right in it midway through the fourth quarter and actually outgained the Packers by 80 total yards. Chicago remains home for another tough contest before heading to Seattle and while the season is still early, this is already a very big game. The Bears have lost four straight home games going back to last season which is part of the reason they are catching points here. Arizona made the playoffs last season as a much improved team and the Cardinals opened their season with a big home win over New Orleans. They outgained the Saints by just 19 total yards as they held them to four field goals and that certainly says a lot about how tough the defense is. Of course, it is much different on the road. Offensively, Carson Palmer looked very comfortable coming back from his knee injury but the offense will be without Andre Ellington who was solid before he had to leave with a knee injury. The Bears did not record a sack last week but Palmer is not nearly as mobile so they should be able to amp up the pressure after forcing Rodgers out of the pocket numerous time. Head coach John Fox bring a new attitude and in his coaching career, he has covered 67 percent of his games following a home loss which tells a lot. Arizona has a pair of divisional games on deck so a lookahead could be inevitable. 10* (272) Chicago Bears |
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09-17-15 | Denver Broncos +3 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 31-24 | Win | 104 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
Week Two of the NFL is known as the week of overreaction and we are seeing it right out of the gates this week. Denver defeated Baltimore in Week One 19-13 but for some reason, the public is very sour with the Broncos and namely Peyton Manning. In all fairness, he did not look very good as he was just 24-40 for 175 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. It is safe to say he is not happy about it and we can expect a bounceback effort here. Kansas City jumped out to a big lead over Houston and was able to hold on for the seven point road win. The Chiefs were outgained by the Texans however and while it can be argued the differential was caused by garbage time yardage, it isn't like college football where starters are subbed out so there is no excuse thus garbage time is more pronounced in the college game than in the pro game. And dealing with the public perception, because of the lackluster Broncos win and the dominating performance from Kansas City against the Texans, the line has moved from Even from when it opened prior to Sunday's games to -3 and that is the ultimate overreaction. Denver has never lost to Kansas City since Manning came on board as it is a perfect 6-0 and it has amazingly won 12 straight road divisional games going back to the days of Tim Tebow. Thus, coming in as the underdog is a huge advantage. 10* (101) Denver Broncos |
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09-14-15 | Minnesota Vikings v. San Francisco 49ers +2 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
The 49ers are the second of two home underdogs tonight and while this is another unpopular pick, the value is there. Linesmakers have to play a lot of guessing games in the first week of the season for setting their numbers and as a result, they can be way off base as we saw that on Sunday with the chalk teams going 9-4 against the number which makes the favorites tonight very attractive to the betting public. The return of Adrian Peterson coupled with Teddy Bridgewater in his second season makes the Vikings a trendy option for the playoffs after finishing 7-9 a season ago. Bridgewater was decent as a rookie as he ranked 11th in the NFL with a 64.4 completion percentage but he was 22nd with an 85.2 passer rating and while Peterson will make him better, I'm not sold on him just yet. The 49ers lost Patrick Willis, Anthony Davis, Chris Borland and Justin Smith to retirement and were forced to release Aldon Smith so the defense is the major concern but this is definitely a favorable matchup to start the season with. On the other side, Colin Kaepernick is coming off his worst season as the 49ers quarterback but with low expectations, this is when he can shine. His favorite target Anquan Boldin and newly acquired Torrey Smith provide a great duel threat and the running back by committee is not necessarily a bad thing. New head coach Jim Tomsula replaces Jim Harbaugh and that is a factor that can be in our favor here because of the unknown aspect of it and not being able to prepare for it as usual. 10* (492) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-14-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Going into Thursday, there were eight home underdogs on the Week One NFL card and that eventually jumped to nine with the Chiefs closing as favorites. The home dogs went just 2-5 yesterday so the public cleaned up pretty good but we were fortunate to be on both of those winners with the Bills and Rams winning outright. The final two home underdogs for the week both go tonight and we will be backing the Falcons at home after a very disappointing 2014 season that led to the dismissal of head coach Mike Smith. The Georgia Dome was a great edge for the Falcons up until the last two years as after going no worse than 6-2 in the first five years at home with quarterback Matt Ryan (33-7 overall), Atlanta has gone just 3-5 at home each of the last two years. The Eagles are one of the public picks to jump over the Seahawks or Packers and win the NFC but even though the team looks stacked, there are some early season concerns with so many new faces on the team and that affects early team chemistry especially on offense. And that is where this game will be decided as the Eagles surrendered 4,238 passing yards last season, which was the second-highest total in the NFL, behind only Atlanta with 4,478 yards allowed. The hiring of Dan Quinn from Seattle should improve the Falcons defense and while it won't take place overnight, we will see it tonight. As we know, past results cannot predict future outcomes but the fact that the Falcons are 7-0 straight up and against the number in home openers under Matt Ryan cannot be overlooked. 10* (490) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-13-15 | NY Giants +7 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 82 h 32 m | Show |
The Giants and Cowboys game is one of only three divisional games the entire weekend and when we think of divisional games, we think of hard fought battles when the teams are not that far off from each other (i.e. Green/Bay/Chicago earlier in the day). That is what makes this line very surprising. The Cowboys are expected to again contend for the NFC Easy title, which is said just about every year, while Giants are predicted to finish third in most previews. Preseason win totals have the Cowboys and Eagles at 9.5 and the Giants at 8 which is not a significant difference so there is not reason to think this line should be what it is. This is a historic rivalry and going back to the 2011 season, this game has never had a spread of more than -4.5 for either side so the fact that it hit a touchdown in some spots is a head scratcher. New York hopes to get off to a better start this year after starting 0-2 last season with a lot that being on Eli Manning's shoulders but he was learning a new system and it obviously took time. Many are predicting a big year from him which would not be surprising. The Cowboys will be dynamic on offense but the defense is not at full strength with Rolando McClain and Orlando Scandrick both out. Here's the deal. Linesmakers have to base their numbers on portions of last year and looking back, Dallas is not as good as its 12-4 record and the Giants are not as bad as their 6-10 record and that is proven with the aforementioned preseason win totals coming into the season. 10* (487) New York Giants |
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09-13-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Oakland Raiders +3.5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -123 | 77 h 27 m | Show |
Here is what we can call another ugly home underdog, one of eight such teams on the Week One slate. Besides Jacksonville, this is the second ugliest based on power rankings but unlike the Jaguars, the Raiders have a lot of potential upside. While we aren't talking Super Bowl, surpassing their three wins from last season is a strong possibility. The key here is Jack Del Rio who brings in a winning attitude and a winning pedigree, something that Bill Callahan, Norv Turner, Art Shell, Lane Kiffin, Tom Cable, Hue Jackson, Dennis Allen and Tony Sparano failed to accomplish. Quarterback Derek Carr because just the seventh rookie to throw for 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns and he should be a lot better this season as the Raiders drafted star Alabama receiver Amari Cooper and brought in Michael Crabtree from San Francisco to give him some much-needed weapons. Oakland has a better defense now as well and linebacker Khalil Mack is the real deal. The Bengals failed to win a playoff game yet again and while they come in as a candidate to win the AFC North, winning on the road has to improve. Cincinnati is 21-2-1 at home the last three years but just 11-13 on the highway over the same stretch. The Raiders have finished 3-5 at home each of the last three years but last year could provide some momentum coming into 2015 as after losing their first five home games, they won their last three, all against teams that finished .500 or better. The public is all over the Bengals as a hefty consensus but the line is staying put which favors our side by thinking the contrarian way. 10* (484) Oakland Raiders |
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09-13-15 | New Orleans Saints v. Arizona Cardinals -1 | Top | 19-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 8 m | Show |
The NFC South was an abomination last season as every other division in the NFL possessed at least two teams with winning records while Carolina came out of the South to win it with a 7-8-1 mark. The Saints finished with a 7-9 record, the second time in three years they have had a losing mark and as dominant as many think they still are, they have not won the division since 2011. New Orleans was a surprise 4-4 on the road last year and by that I mean surprisingly good as they rarely have .500 or above seasons on the highway. Arizona was a pleasant surprise last season as it made the playoffs despite losing the services of Carson Palmer for 10 games. He is back to full health including his shoulder and he says his arm is stronger than ever. New Orleans parted ways with many key contributors including Jimmy Graham, Pierre Thomas and leading receiver Kenny Stills so it may take time for the new roster players to find their way. The public still loves the Saints, home or away, and while this line could go lower by gametime because of late public money coming in, we are already seeing reverse line movement. The Cardinals are the early consensus, which consists of not as much public action as you will see come Sunday, but one popular book has actually dropped the line which presents some intriguing reverse line movement. Arizona has a sneaky good home field advantage and Bruce Arians meanwhile has gone a solid 17-5 ATS in his 22 games at home as a head coach. The home field again remains strong in Arizona. 10* (478) Arizona Cardinals |
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09-13-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Buffalo Bills +2.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 4 m | Show |
A record eight home underdogs are on the Week One NFL card and that just shows how much public perception can affect opening week numbers. Linesmakers have a tough enough time setting lines but coming in with no data or stats to work with, these liners open at what they think the public will back and then are adjusted accordingly. To no surprise, the Colts are road favorites here as they are the second favorite behind New England to win the AFC Championship. As of Thursday, the Colts are the fourth biggest consensus bet with the other three above them being road chalk as well which only cements how much the public loves laying numbers on road teams. Buffalo went 9-7 last season which was a three-game improvement from 2013, 2012 and 2011 which were all six-win seasons. I think there is room for more improvement as the defense remains a strength, the offense has more playmakers and a dynamic quarterback has stepped up. Tyrod Taylor had an awesome preseason and if he can carry even some of that into the regular season, the Bills could make a serious charge at the AFC East title. This is no easy task but Buffalo has thrived in these spots in front of the home crowd, going 6-1 ATS in seven games as a home underdog the last two seasons and now the team is even better. The fans know it and it will be raucous. Indianapolis won 13 games last season before losing to New England in the AFC Championship and that puts the Colts into an awesome contrarian situation that we ride to the bank on Sunday. 10* (470) Buffalo Bills |
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09-13-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. St Louis Rams +4 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 74 h 4 m | Show |
St. Louis falls into the same ideology of the common theme on opening week in the NFL and that is going against the public consensus as the main basis due to the lack and data, stats or results. While we don't have any of that info, neither do the linesmakers when trying to set these lines so even though we go in relatively blind, imagine how they feel when there are millions on the line. The Seahawks were a yard away from a second straight Super Bowl title and they come in as the favorites to win it all once again at +500. Seattle is another big public consensus play on Sunday but take this team out of Seattle and it becomes beatable even it if may be playing with a chip on its shoulder. Low scoring games certainly helps the underdog and this has the potential to be a very low scoring game as it will feature two of the best defensive lines in football going up against a pair of offensive lines that have serious question marks entering the season. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll confirmed that three-time Pro Bowl safety Kam Chancellor will in fact miss Sunday's game and that is huge for the Rams as Nick Foles will have to find a rhythm with his receivers and get it done through the air. While Seattle has dominated this series at home the last three years, St. Louis has won two of the three meetings here while covering the third matchup as well. Another outright win if far from out of the question but in this case we are getting a line almost everywhere that is above the key number of three. 10* (476) St. Louis Rams |
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09-10-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. New England Patriots -6.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 78 h 11 m | Show |
Going back a few years, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers including Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. That changed in 2012 when the Giants lost at home against Dallas and continued two years ago when Baltimore had to go on the road to Denver because of a conflict with the Orioles and got thumped. Last year, Seattle easily defeated Green Bay and now New England opens the season at home and this is a good spot for the defending champs to open the season with a victory. The story here obviously in the Tom Brady issue and when he was suspended, the line dropped from -7 to -2.5 but when he was reinstated, it went back up to -7. So now it is Pittsburgh that is on the short end of a suspension issue as Le'Veon Bell is out for the first two games and we know what he is capable of and how much he is missed, looking at the Baltimore playoff game as a prime example. Brady, who addressed reporters Sunday, admitted Thursday would be entirely about beating the Steelers and not about revisiting last season and the banner getting raised so focus will not be an issue. New England is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 10* (462) New England Patriots |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots +1 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 318 h 53 m | Show |
Seattle opened as a three-point favorite and last for about an hour and a half before some major action came in on the Patriots which drove it all the way down to -1 and eventually a pickem. There was no way that field goal spread would have stayed no matter the amount of action that came in as from a power ranking and spread standpoint, this game is a pickem. It is the intangibles however that I feel gives the Patriots a significant edge and they will deny the Seahawks from becoming the first back-to-back champions in a decade when they were the last team to do it back in 2003-04 and 2004-05. the biggest intangible edge for New England is the coaching staff. Taking nothing away from what Pete Carroll has done in Seattle but Bill Belichick is a legend and despite losing the last two Super Bowls, he will come up with an alternate gameplan to avoid a repeat of those. We played against the Seahawks in the NFC Championship and while we cashed the ticket, the Packers should have won that game outright as they outplayed Seattle for 57 minutes of that game. Green Bay was not aggressive when it needed to be and the onsides kick debacle as well as not even getting the ball on offense in overtime was unfortunate. Going into this game, Seattle had not played a top line quarterback since Week Six when Dallas came to town and won outright and while the Seahawks won on Sunday, they didn't beat Aaron Rodgers as the Packers did it to themselves. And the Seahawks are not going to beat Tom Brady either. New England has gone 19 playoff games since winning its last Super Bowl and that is killing Brady more than anyone else hands down. Russell Wilson could turn into a superstar, he is having his worst season as a pro as far as passer rating and he is not in the same category as Brady. The Seattle defense gets a lot of credit as it should but it has allowed 23.6 ppg, compared to 13.5 ppg in the other games, when facing the well above average quarterbacks this season and it is again facing someone from that group. While motivation is not lacking this time of year, something says that the Patriots, Belichick and Brady push that pedal down more than usual and get back to the place they do in fact deserve, Super Bowl Champion. 10* (101) New England Patriots |
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01-18-15 | Indianapolis Colts +7 v. New England Patriots | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 37 m | Show |
Many will be lining up behind the Patriots here based on the fact they should not look as bad as they did last week along with the fact that they have dominated Andrew Luck and the Colts in all three meetings. New England won those three games by 35, 21 and 22 points with the last one being in Indianapolis during the regular season. In my opinion, all of those games can be thrown out as the Colts are playing at a high level while New England has looked average over its last three games. The Patriots twice came back from 14-point deficits against Baltimore so give them credit for fighting all the way to the end. They will likely be a one-dimension team once again however as they threw 51 times and ran it only 13 times for 14 yards against Baltimore. Against two of the hottest backs in the league, Cincinnati's Jeremy Hill and Denver's C.J. Anderson, the Colts allowed a meager 198 yards rushing in two games. The 99.0 ypg average is the lowest among the four teams still playing on championship weekend. On the other side, Luck is playing solid and faces a Patriots defense that has been tore apart by above average starting quarterbacks, including Luck in Week 11. The Colts believe they will have the same starting combination on the offensive line for the third straight week. The most recent time that happened was Weeks 1 to 3. Indianapolis is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing 14 points or less last game while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. 10* (303) Indianapolis Colts |
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01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers +8.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 96 h 52 m | Show |
It is interesting that the team from the west coast is hosting the earlier game on Sunday and that no doubt hurts Seattle from a fan standpoint as the later those games are, the louder it gets. While we lost with Carolina last week, the Panthers actually outgained the Seahawks but it was the 90-yard interception return for a pick six that resulted in a 14-point swing and put the game out of reach. No doubt, playing in Seattle is going to be tough no matter what time of day it is but Green Bay certainly has the ability to win this game and at this price, it is getting zero respect. The line last week eventually went up to 13 on gameday but it hovered around 10.5-11 more of the week and the fact that the Packers are getting just 2.5-3 points less than that depending what line you get is silly. Add to the fact, Seattle was favored by 4.5 points in the season opener against the Packers and now the line has gone up considerably. While Seattle did cover that game, it has not played a top line quarterback since Week Six when Dallas came to town and won outright. Aided by a number of receiving options, a stronger runner in Eddie Lacy and an improved defense that has allowed more than 21 points only once in nine games, the Packers are a more complete and confident team than the one that visited Seattle in September. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 7.5 or more passing ypa, after gaining seven or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 45-20 ATS (69.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) Green Bay Packers |
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01-11-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -100 | 148 h 27 m | Show |
The NFL could not have scripted this one better fore the final game of the Divisional Playoff Round as the league eats this stuff up. The Colts advanced to the next round as it dominated the Bengals on Sunday for the second time this season. They outscored Cincinnati 53-10 and outgained it 988-389 in those two games combined but both of those games were at home and while Indianapolis had a winning road record, it is skewed. The Colts went 0-3 on the road this season against fellow playoff teams and the margins were even worse as they were outscored 124-65 compared to outscoring the five non-playoff teams 169-103. Denver was able to lock up the 2nd seed in the AFC and a bye with a rout over Oakland and that was a big win as it got them out of a three-game funk and get some momentum heading into the postseason. The Broncos offense has chanced and for the good as in the last six games of the 2014 season, they began grinding out drives, while improving on the points-per-possession efficiency established in the first 10 games. That could be crucial against a Colts defense that has been in the bottom half of the league in rushing yardage per game, per carry and first-down rate. Denver won the first matchup this season as it held off a late Colts rally and the Broncos fall into a great situation based on the as we play against teams that are revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 27-8 ATS (77.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (120) Denver Broncos |
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01-11-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers -6.5 | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -103 | 145 h 52 m | Show |
Dallas survived at home against Detroit as it rallied from a 14-0 deficit to win it late to earn a trip to Green Bay. The Cowboys were a perfect 8-0 on the road during the regular season and while a win at Seattle was impressive, that was the only road game against a team that made the playoffs. Give them credit for not folding against the Lions but they go into a very difficult spot here. The Packers finished a perfect 8-0 at home which included three wins against teams that made the playoffs. They had a bye week which was more important to them than any other team as it gave time for quarterback Aaron Rodgers to rest his injured calf. Rodgers has been having one of the best seasons of his career and while Dallas has shown the ability to force takeaways this year, Rodgers has been remarkable at home by throwing 25 touchdowns and not a single interception. The Cowboys defense has given up 251.9 ypg through the air this season, which is just 26th in the NFL. Green Bay is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 home games in the second half of the season when playing against teams with a winning percentage greater than .750, winning those games by close to two touchdowns per game. The key here is second half of the season since Green Bay has a big home field edge in terms of when the weather can get bad. The Weather Channel predicts a high of 19 degrees and a low of 4 next Sunday in Green Bay. 10* (118) Green Bay Packers |
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01-10-15 | Carolina Panthers +11 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -108 | 128 h 1 m | Show |
Seattle got off to a pretty uneven start this season with a 3-3 record through six games but closed on a 9-1 run including wins in its final six games of the season while going 5-0-1 ATS over that stretch. The Seahawks are now in the drivers seat to head back to the Super Bowl but just getting there again is difficult in this league as it has been a decade since a team has been able to make a return trip. That means little here but it could have some correlation because of the pressure that comes with it. Carolina heads into Seattle off win over Arizona as the defense held the Cardinals to just 78 total yards and while the Panthers take a big step up in class here, they are playing at the top of their game right now. They have won five straight games after a dismal 1-8-1 run and while many won't give them a chance here, their defense can keep them hanging around. They have allowed 300 yards only once over their last six games and they have outgained seven straight opponents. Seattle isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut as it has scored more than 20 points only twice in its last seven games. The Seahawks were held to just 13 points in the first meeting against the Panthers and while that was in Carolina, the Panthers were not playing at a high level then. Play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after two or more consecutive wins. This situation is 65-33 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (113) Carolina Panthers |
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01-10-15 | Baltimore Ravens +8 v. New England Patriots | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 124 h 21 m | Show |
The Ravens are coming off a win in Pittsburgh despite getting outgained by 92 yards as they were able to take advantage of turnovers. They are a team that simply gets it done this time of year as they are 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games and 5-0 ATS in their last five road playoff games. The defense was thought to be old and washed up but has allowed 88.3 rushing ypg this season and hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in the past 27 games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady faces a Ravens defense that was second in the NFL in regular season with 49 sacks (29 by linebackers Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs). The Ravens only allowed opponents to convert 42.6 percent of their red-zone drives in the regular season, the second-best percentage in the NFL. On the other side, quarterback Joe Flacco is now 10-4 in his career in the playoffs with 21 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. The Patriots defense is ranked 13th overall and will see plenty of balance coming from Baltimore. While their recent playoff history is well known, the Patriots are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games. Going to Gillette Stadium is never easy especially this time of year but the Ravens will be unfazed as they have won twice here in the playoffs in three tries with the lone loss coming by just a field goal. 10* (111) Baltimore Ravens |
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01-04-15 | Detroit Lions +8 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 126 h 40 m | Show |
*NFC WILD CARD PLAYOFFS Sunday, January 4th, 4:40 PM ET* Dallas is on a roll with four straight wins and covers and this line is severely inflated to reflect that. This is the second highest line the Cowboys have been favored by at home and is just a point or two lower than when they were favored over Washington. The win over the Redskins this past Sunday completed a perfect 8-0 road record but at home, Dallas is just 4-4 so it has been pretty average even though it defeated the Colts handily in their last home game. Detroit lost out on a chance at winning the NFC North with a loss at Green Bay on Sunday but it played a very respectable game against a Packers team that is unbeatable at home. The Lions have dropped three straight against the number which is also factoring into this line and at 4-4 on the road, they have been solid away from home. The Lions come in with the better defense and they fall into a solid situation because of it as we play on teams in the second half of the season that are allowing between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 50-24 ATS (67.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Dallas is just 8-19 ATS in 27 games as a favorite under Jason Garrett and while Ndamukong Suh has been suspended, the line should only inflate more. Detroit has an excellent chance to win this one outright but we will gladly grab the generous points. 10* (101) Detroit Lions |
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01-04-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
We waited to release this game based on the questionable status of Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green as he went from questionable to doubtful to officially out as of yesterday. He is a huge impact on the offense and while Cincinnati has been practicing without him all week, it will be a big absence. Additionally, tight end Jermaine Gresham has been nursing a back injury all week and like Green, has practiced only one day. Gresham was on Friday's injury report as questionable. His playing status could be a game-time decision. Cincinnati went 1-2 against the number without Green this season including a 27-0 loss here in Indianapolis. The Colts have won four of their last five games after taking down Tennessee in the season finale after getting ripped against Dallas. Indianapolis is 6-2 at home with an early season loss that never should have happened against the Eagles and the other coming against the nemesis Patriots. The Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record. Cincinnati one of the two playoff teams that is getting outgained on the season with Arizona being the other and we saw what happened there yesterday. The Bengals are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games coming off a divisional road loss while the Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a double-digit divisional win. 10* (108) Indianapolis Colts |
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01-03-15 | Arizona Cardinals v. Carolina Panthers -4.5 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 102 h 35 m | Show |
*NFC WILD CARD PLAYOFFS Saturday, January 3rd, 4:35 PM ET* The first game of Wild Card weekend is definitely the lamest of the bunch as 6-8-1 Carolina hosts Arizona that went from a possible bye to having to play on the road. But I think it is a solid betting opportunity as we have two teams going in opposite directions. Carolina comes in on a four-game winning streak and the defense that carried the Panthers last season and was no where to be found early in the season has been the strength. They have allowed just 10.8 ppg over that stretch and facing an Arizona offense that has scored 18 points or less in seven straight games, it should remain powerful. Drew Stanton could feasibly be back for this one as he is listed as day-to-day and is improving but his numbers have not been very good so while it would be an upgrade from Ryan Lindley, it is not a big upgrade. On the other side, Cam Newton has been up and down this season but is coming off a solid game against Atlanta where he didn't have to throw much and he is the type of quarterback that can give the Cardinals fits. Russell Wilson tore Arizona apart for 339 yards passing and 88 yards rushing and Newton is capable of big numbers both ways. The Panthers have outgained six straight opponents and that is what you want in backing a team heading into the playoffs. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 39-16 ATS (70.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (106) Carolina Panthers |
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12-28-14 | Arizona Cardinals +6 v. San Francisco 49ers | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 104 h 36 m | Show | |
The Cardinals are in the playoffs but they are limping to the finish line by going 2-3 over their last five games while getting outgained in all five of those games. Typically, that would trigger a play against situation but not here as this is a huge game to try and build some momentum heading into the postseason. Not to mention the fact, Arizona is getting a huge number against a team that is playing just as bad with nothing to play for. The 49ers have lost four straight games including an overtime loss against San Diego last Saturday after blowing a 21-0 lead. San Francisco's season ranks right up there as one of the most disappointing in the league and the future of head coach Jim Harbaugh is definitely in question. While the 49ers will be playing for revenge, they are not in the right state to be laying a big number against a quality team with a quality defense that was lit up last week. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 9* (329) Arizona Cardinals *ULTIMATE UNDERDOG |
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12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers +4.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 104 h 37 m | Show |
Atlanta is a popular pick this week playing at home and coming off an upset of New Orleans last week. The division is on the line Sunday as the winner will be crowned the champ despite possessing a losing record. There is not a whole lot that separates these two teams and based on that, we are getting value with this line which should be no more than three because of the divisional home field advantage. The Falcons home field advatnage has not been that great to begin with as they are 3-3 at home including losses in three of their last four. Carolina has won three straight games and it is playing its best football of the season as it has outgained each of its last five opponents, the last four coming by at least 100 total yards. Atlanta is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games after a win by 14 or more points and 0-6 ATS I its last six home games after gaining 375 or more yards in two straight games. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game while going 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (315) Carolina Panthers *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR |
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12-28-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins +6 | 44-17 | Loss | -105 | 100 h 10 m | Show | |
We won with Washington last Saturday as it spoiled the season for the Eagles, eliminating them from the playoffs. The Redskins have a similar opportunity this week and while not as extreme, they can kill the Cowboys chances of a first round bye. This is obviously a huge rivalry but Washington is once against getting a big number at home. It has been a tough season for the Redskins but a win here would be big to carry a winning streak and some confidence into next season. Dallas is on a three-game winning streak including a blowout win over the Colts last week that definitely turned some heads. The Cowboys are a perfect 7-0 on the road but history is not on their side to finish undefeated. They will be out for revenge following a home loss against Washington earlier this season but the line change does not correlate as they were nine-point favorites at home and are now close to a touchdown favorite on the road. Here, we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing nine points or less last game. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1983. 9* (324) Washington Redskins *ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL |
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12-28-14 | Chicago Bears +6.5 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 100 h 12 m | Show |
We won with Chicago last Sunday and we will back the Bears again this week taking a line that is completely inflated. One main reason for taking Chicago last week was the fact that Jay Cutler was benched and his teammates rallied around Jimmy Clausen. Now with Cutler back in the lineup, I expect the Bears to rally around him this week. Chicago has lost four straight games including the last three all coming at home and playing on the road is actually a good thing to end the season. The Vikings are coming off two straight brutal losses on the road, both of which were two-point setbacks and those will be tough to recover from. Minnesota has cashed five straight games at the betting window which is a big reason for this inflated price. It doesn't matter who they are playing but the Vikings have no business laying a touchdown and the last time they were favored by this many points, it was Week Three of last season. Here we play against home favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 off a road loss, playing a bad team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 41-12 ATS (77.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (317) Chicago Bears *NFL GAME OF THE YEAR |
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12-28-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 100 h 11 m | Show |
The Saints had a very disappointing season as they were tabbed a favorite to at least be in contention in the NFC. Instead, they will miss the playoffs for the second time in three years and getting up a game against Tampa Bay will be near impossible. Yet, New Orleans is favored which it should be based on its better record and the fact that Tampa Bay has yet to win a game at home this season. The Buccaneers are coming off their seventh home loss of the season last week against Green Bay as they were in a tough spot with the Packers coming off a loss against the Bills the previous week. Tampa Bay will be out to avoid a winless season at home and despite the 0-7 record, they have had their chances, losing four home games by six points or less. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a cover loss and fall into a great situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (326) Tampa Bay Buccaneers *ENFORCER |
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12-21-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Arizona Cardinals +9 | Top | 35-6 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 53 m | Show |
Arizona is once again getting no respect and a lot of that has to do with the quarterback situation of course. No one thinks that Ryan Lindley can make it happen especially against a strong Seattle defense but playing at home can make up the difference here and even more so, he has had over a week to prepare after getting thrown right into the fire last week. It is no secret Arizona will try and run the ball and it comes at a good time as they are coming off their two best rushing games of the season, 143 yards against St. Louis and 141 against Kansas City. The Cardinals also possess a very underrated defense that causes turnovers and is third in the league in scoring defense. In first meeting, the Cardinals held Marshawn Lynch to 39 yards on 15 carries and 13 of those yards came on one play and they sacked Russell Wilson seven times. The Seahawks are definitely peeking at the right time as they have won four straight games and seven of their last eight. Playing on the road is not their strength though as they are 4-3 with only one of those wins coming against a team with a better than .500 record. Head coach Bruce Arians is one of the most underrated coaches in the game and he is 17-4 ATS in 21 home games including a 9-1 ATS record as an underdog. The Cardinals fall into a fantastic situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 14 points or less last game against going up against an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (130) Arizona Cardinals |
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12-21-14 | Indianapolis Colts +3 v. Dallas Cowboys | 7-42 | Loss | -102 | 74 h 49 m | Show | |
The Colts clinched the AFC South with their win over the Texans last week and are currently the third seed in the AFC. The chances of them moving up are remote but that doesn't mean they are going to just try and coast into the playoffs. They have publicly said that they want to keep their winning streak going into the playoffs so they won't be resting anyone and lose momentum. Quarterback Andrew Luck is coming off two straight bad games but we should see him get back to his old self against a Cowboys defense that is 22nd in the league in total defense and 28th in ypa allowed. He led the offense to just 17 points last week against Houston and that was just the third time this season they have scored 20 points or less. He has responded well as the Colts have won all 13 games with him as quarterback after scoring 20 points or less in their previous game. The Cowboys are coming off a win in Philadelphia to improve to 7-0 on the highway but they are just 3-4 at home which is an uncanny dynamic in this league. Overall, Dallas is outgaining opponents by just 17.8 ypg compared to the Colts outgaining opponents by 70.6 ypg. Despite similar records, Indianapolis is the better team and it has 13 road victories under Luck. The Colts are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread while Dallas is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons and under head coach Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their 12 home games following a divisional game. 9* (127) Indianapolis Colts *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR |
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12-21-14 | Atlanta Falcons +6 v. New Orleans Saints | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 70 h 24 m | Show | |
There used to be a time when betting against the Saints at home was forbidden but those times are long gone. New Orleans has dropped four straight home games and while we will certainly see their best effort in trying to break that streak while inching closer to the playoffs, it just isn't as dominant as it used to be. The linesmakers are thinking otherwise however as they are giving the Saints a lot of credit here and a lot of that is knowing the public will be backing them big this week. New Orleans and Atlanta are separated by just one game and the numbers prove that they are very close to each other. The Falcons have dropped two straight games and this is a must win in order to keep their playoff hopes alive as winning out will give them the NFC South despite a 7-9 finishing record. This has typically been a very close series as seven of the last 10 meetings have been decided by four points or less, three going in overtime and the underdog has cashed seven times. With everything on the line for both sides, we should see another classic matchup. Atlanta falls into a solid situation as we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Atlanta is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing six or more yppl in two consecutive games while going 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games against teams allowing 130 or more rushing ypg. 9* (113) Atlanta Falcons *ULTIMATE UNDERDOG |
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12-21-14 | Detroit Lions v. Chicago Bears +9.5 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 70 h 25 m | Show |
The Bears would not have been a play but the benching of Jay Cutler has changed that as we will see the players rally around Jimmy Clausen. And because of the Cutler benching, the line has gone up and wee are getting an exceptional number here. Chicago has lost three consecutive games, both straight up and against the number and with no chance for the postseason, many are writing them off. This is the last home game of the season so the effort will be there and while this is a play on Chicago, it is also a play against Detroit. The Lions have won three straight games, all of those coming at home and that often presents a good opportunity to go against. This is a big game for the Lions as they are at Green Bay next week which will decide the division but taking the Lions outside in the elements is not ideal. They are 3-3 on the road and one of those wins came in London and in the five true road games, they have averaged just 12.6 ppg. Chicago falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 96-57 ATS (62.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Detroit is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games against teams who give up 27 or more ppg and 7-23 ATS in its last 30 games following two or more wins. Chicago is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games revenging a road loss by 14 points or more and 9-0 ATS in its last nine home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 10* (112) Chicago Bears *DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE MONTH |
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12-21-14 | Minnesota Vikings +7 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 70 h 25 m | Show |
Plain and simple, this line is way too high. Minnesota has been playing exceptional as it has covered seven of its last eight games and while it may be just 4-4 in those games, three of those losses were by a field goal or less. The Vikings are not in the playoff hunt but you have to give a ton of credit to head coach Mike Zimmer as his team continues to play hard for him despite the fact they will miss the postseason for a second straight year. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is coming into his own as he has a 91.8 passer rating in his last six games and Miami's defense has been nothing special the last few weeks. While they are still mathematically alive for the playoffs, the Dolphins need a ton of help and it isn't likely. Head coach Joe Philbin is now on the hot seat and the way the team has looked, he may have lost his players. The offense hasn't scored more than 16 points and been held to 213 rushing yards in the last three games and the Vikings defense has steadily improved over the second half of the season. Two situations are on our side. First, we play against home favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 coming off a road loss by 14 points or more. This situation is 55-26 ATS (67.9 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (107) Minnesota Vikings *ENFORCER |
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12-20-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +9 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 49 m | Show | |
Washington is one of four teams this week in a divisional matchup that is getting at least seven points on its home field. That is a huge amount of points in a divisional game but it is based on teams that are playing for something against teams that are not playing for something (the exception being Seattle/Arizona). The only thing left for Washington at this point is to play spoiler and what better way than to try and do it against two of its most hated rivals Philadelphia and Dallas this week and next. The Redskins have had a tough season as they have lost six straight games and sit at 3-11 overall. This includes a 1-7 record on the road but a much more respectable 2-4 record at home and this is just their third home game since October 19th. The Eagles have dropped two straight and are now in must win mode which is being taken into account with this line. As much as the Eagles do need to win, it is questionable whether or not Mark Sanchez can get it done in clutch time even though he does have experience with big games in the past. He had a good game at Dallas on Thanksgiving but his other four starts over his last five games have been pretty poor. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or less that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile the Eagles are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against teams being outscored by six or more ppg and 0-6 ATS in their last games off a double-digit home loss. 9* (106) Washington Redskins |
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12-15-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears +3 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
It is pretty hard to believe that over their last seven games, the Saints are 1-4 at home and 2-0 on the road which is a complete anomaly of normal Saints teams. New Orleans is getting the love again tonight as it is favored on the road against a team with an identical record overall as well as with the home/road splits. This is not a role that the Saints have thrived in this season as they are 3-8 ATS as a favorite including going 1-3 as a road favorite. The Bears have been a major disappointment at home also and they are coming off a pair of losses, one on Detroit on Thanksgiving where they played on short rest and last Thursday at home against Dallas. They now have had extra time off for this game and the fact they are getting just one points less here against the 5-8 Saints than they did against the then 9-4 Cowboys which makes no sense. One of the areas that has hurt Chicago is turnovers as they are -6 in turnover margin but the Saints have actually been worse with a -9 turnover margin. Chicago is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse and have a solid situation on its side for tonight as we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1983. Look for the wet and windy weather tonight to affect New Orleans much more. 10* (334) Chicago Bears |
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12-14-14 | Minnesota Vikings +8 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 75 h 48 m | Show |
The Vikings got away with one last Sunday as they won in overtime against a Jets team that was in a horrible spot coming off a Monday loss to the Dolphins. Minnesota escaped in overtime and now heads to Detroit for a revenge game where it lost 17-3 in the first meeting while gaining a mere 212 total yards. The difference now is that quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has a lot more experience and he is playing excellent right now with QB ratings of 120.7 and 117.7 the last two games. He will be facing a tough Detroit defense for sure but the Lions are not in a good spot. This is the final game of a three-game homestand for the Lions and the final home game of the season and teams playing in their third consecutive home game after winning the first two games are just 6-24 ATS since 1990. This is no doubt a big game for the Lions in trying to keep pace with Green Bay as they face the Packers in the season finale in two weeks. But we are catching a great number as Detroit is laying just two points less than last week against a much better team. Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six games revenging a same season loss while Detroit is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. 10* (323) Minnesota Vikings *ENFORCER |
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12-14-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Buffalo Bills +5.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 23 m | Show | |
The Bills are coming off a disappointing loss last week in Denver and while they were not being expected to win, they gave it their all as they held the Broncos to 306 total yards, a season low. Buffalo has a solid and underrated defense as it is fifth overall and fourth in points allowed. Going from Peyton Manning to Aaron Rodgers is no easy task but getting the Packers at home is a big advantage. The Bills have to pull off the upset for any chance at the playoffs and this is one of those games where it is very possible with the public absolutely pounding Green Bay. It is even more of an edge considering we are seeing reverse line movement with this line actually coming down from its opening number. Green Bay won its fifth straight game last week but four of those were at home and the one road win was by just three points at Minnesota. The Packers are just 3-3 on the road with two of those wins coming by a field goal and the big win at Chicago was set up by turnovers and special teams as they were actually outgained by 138 yards. Here, we play against road teams after scoring 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 89-47 ATS (65.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (322) Buffalo Bills *ULTIMATE UNDERDOG |
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12-14-14 | Miami Dolphins +8 v. New England Patriots | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
Many will be backing the Patriots here based on the fact that they are a perfect 6-0 at home this season and will be out for revenge following their 33-20 loss in Miami opening week. Of course both of those factors are already being taken into consideration with the line which I feel is inflated because of the public's admiration for New England. The Patriots surely want to keep winning to grab home field advantage in the playoffs but this is a bigger game for the Dolphins as a loss here will knock them out of the playoff picture. Miami has lost two of its last three games including a 28-13 home loss against Baltimore last week that was decided on an overturned turnover call which ended up being the difference. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983 including a perfect 4-0 the last 10 years. The Dolphins are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Patriots are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (315) Miami Dolphins *DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR |
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12-14-14 | Oakland Raiders v. Kansas City Chiefs -10 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
The Chiefs got off to a solid 7-3 start this season but they have since lost three games in a row including a couple narrow losses by four and three points. They are on the verge of falling out of the playoff picture so while this is a must win, Kansas City could use a game of domination from start to finish to build some confidence before playing Pittsburgh and San Diego to close out the season. The Chiefs could not be hosting a better opponent this week to regain some of that domination as hey will be out to avenge a loss in Oakland in Week 12 which happened to be the Raiders first win. Oakland is coming off a win last week against the 49ers and we all remember what happened to the Raiders in their next game after their first win as they were pummeled by the Rams. Kansas City has two great situations in its favor. First, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a road loss, off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 55-22 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 72-33 ATS (68.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (306) Kansas City Chiefs *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR |
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12-11-14 | Arizona Cardinals +4 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
Despite a 10-3 record, not many people are giving Arizona a chance here or the rest of the season for that matter based on their recent play where they have gone 1-2 over their last three games while getting outgained in all three of those. The loss of Carson Palmer at quarterback was no doubt big but Drew Stanton has fared pretty well. He played well against Detroit, the best defense in the NFL, in his first start and with the exception of a bad game in Seattle, he has compiled ratings of 91.4, 72 and 88.1. Certainly not great but good enough to have chances to win and he is 2-2 in those starts. The play of St. Louis is also playing into this line and it is a surprise for sure as it has won two straight games while covering its last four. Beating Denver was big and playing San Diego close was solid but the last two wins came against Washington and Oakland, a combined 5-21. Additionally, the Rams shut out those last two opponents which brings up a great opportunity to play against them here. Arizona is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games coming off a nonconference game while the Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 250 total yards. Also, we play against home favorites revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) Arizona Cardinals |
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12-08-14 | Atlanta Falcons +14 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 37-43 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Waiting on the weather in Green Bay is an absolute must before putting out anything and while the weather tonight will be cold with a chance of snow, there is nothing extreme going to take place that can affect a football game. The Packers are playing great right now as they have won four straight games and eight of their last nine and are now a half-game ahead of Detroit in the NFC North. This line is overinflated however based on the recent run, the Packer name and the fact that Atlanta struggles outside the dome. The one thing I cannot overlook is the fact that Green Bay is outgaining opponents by just 11.2 ypg on the season. The Falcons can take over first place in the NFC South by a full game with a victory here and winning outright is not out of the question. The defense is the concern but after allowing 28.4 ppg through their first seven games, they have allowed just 20 ppg over their last five games. Offensively, the Falcons have the weapons to keep up and the return of Roddy White tonight to compliment Julio Jones would be huge. Atlanta falls into a great contrarian spot as we play against favorites of 10.5 or more points after three or more consecutive wins, in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Atlanta is 8-0 ATS after allowing six or more yppl in two consecutive games. 10* (179) Atlanta Falcons |
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12-07-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Oakland Raiders +9.5 | Top | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 41 m | Show |
After winning their first game of the season, Oakland got destroyed last week in St. Louis which was an expected letdown based on that big victory over the Chiefs. No one thought it would be that bad though as the Raiders went down 52-0 although they were outgained by just 104 total yards as five turnovers did them in. Now they head back home to face their most hated rival outside of their division and it could very well be their most hated rival overall. San Francisco lost at home on Thanksgiving to Seattle and it was a pretty ugly game as it was outgained by 215 total yards and this team is just not playing well right now and should not be laying a number this big. The 49ers are 3-3 over their last six games and the three wins were by a combined 13 points and those wins were against teams all with losing records. Two situations favor the Raiders as well. We play on teams that are averaging between 14.5 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing 40 points or more last game. This situation is 37-15 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 82-38 ATS (68.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (174) Oakland Raiders *ENFORCER |
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12-07-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Arizona Cardinals +1 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 55 h 21 m | Show |
Arizona returns home following two straight road games and two straight losses. And the Cardinals did not look good in either one as they dropped to 3-3 on the road but bring in a perfect 6-0 home record to try and stop their skid. They have just a one game lead over Seattle in the NFC West so this is no doubt a big game. It is a big game for the Chiefs as well which are also losers of two straight games but they have not been playing good for a while. Kansas City has been outgained in five straight games and are getting outgained on the season by 20.7 ypg. The Chiefs are one of only three teams in the NFL with a winning record that are getting outgained. Two situations are on our side as well as first, we play on home underdogs or pickems after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 95-54 ATS (63.8 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against favorites after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 89-46 ATS (65.9 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Arizona is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less and Bruce Arians is 9-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in games he has coached. 10* (172) Arizona Cardinals *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR |
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12-07-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.5 v. Detroit Lions | 17-34 | Loss | -120 | 52 h 16 m | Show | |
We won with Tampa Bay last week and we will be playing the Buccaneers again this week. They played the Bengals tough and of their 10 losses, only two of those have been by more than 10 points and none since their bye week in mid-October. They have been a better road team than a home team as both wins have come on the highway while their scoring differential is skewed because of the big loss at Atlanta. Detroit is coming off a big win over Thanksgiving which snapped a two-game losing streak and this is the final non-divisional game of the season so focus could be a huge issue. The Lions won by 17 points over the Bears but that does not mean it will carry over as they have dropped their last nine post-Thanksgiving Day games. Detroit is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 30 or more points and we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams that are between +/- 0.4 yppl, after outgaining opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. Additionally, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 81-37 ATS (68.6 percent) since 1983. 9* (163) Tampa Bay Buccaneers *ULTIMATE UNDERDOG |