Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-07-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 17 m | Show |
This is a horrible spot for St. Louis. The Rams defeated Denver at home, battled San Diego on the road in a tight loss and then pummeled the Raiders last week. Now they hit the road again against a team they could care less in playing with a home game against rival Arizona on deck. And they are favored on top of it. You have to go all the way back to 2010 to find the last time they were road favorites and this season, they are 0-4 when coming off a win. The Redskins are back home following a stretch of four road games over their last five and they only won once in this span, an overtime win at Dallas. Clearly Washington is not playing well but at 3-9, they are actually better than that record. They have outgained opponents by 26.2 ypg and along with New Orleans, are the only teams in the NFL with losing records that are outgaining opponents. The difference obviously is turnovers where they are -7 but the Rams are not great in that category either at just +2. Here, we play against favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, playing a losing team. This situation is 39-15 ATS (72.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (166) Washington Redskins |
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12-01-14 | Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets +7 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Miami is coming off a hard fought loss in Denver last Sunday and now it goes from close to a touchdown road underdog to a touchdown road favorite. The Dolphins need to win this game to keep pace in the AFC playoffs and that is being reflected in this line as we are getting a great amount of value on the home team that is playing for nothing but spoiler. The Dolphins blew an 11-point fourth quarter lead in Denver and that was the team's first loss after entering the fourth with a lead of more than 10 points in 14 years so regrouping from that is a big task. The Jets are coming off a horrible performance in Detroit last Monday against Buffalo and the public has taken notice with Miami being the big betting favorite tonight. The return of Geno Smith at quarterback is an edge as the Miami secondary unit is weakened with the loss of cornerbacks Jamar Taylor and Cortland Finnegan, with rookie Walt Aikens likely to replace one of them in the starting lineup. On the other side, the New York defense is ranked seventh in the NFL and should be able to contain 18th ranked Dolphins offense. Here, we play on home teams after scoring nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 51-22 ATS (69.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Jets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while the Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (476) New York Jets |
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11-30-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Atlanta Falcons +2.5 | 18-29 | Win | 100 | 53 h 11 m | Show | |
The Falcons season has been a very strange one to state the obvious. Following a blowout victory over Tampa Bay, Atlanta lost five straight games leading into its bye week. The Falcons went through a stretch of four straight games away from home and surprisingly they won the final two games of that stretch on the road where they have notoriously been awful. They then come homer and lost to the Browns but Atlanta remains tied for first place in the NFC South and it catches Arizona at a good time. The Cardinals had their six-game winning streak snapped last week in Seattle as reality set in. they went through a stretch of winning the turnover battle in five of six games but they have been on the wrong side in their last two so the shift is on. While this is a big game to stay two games ahead of Seattle in the NFC West, Arizona has Kansas City on deck and then three straight divisional games, putting it in a very poor situation this week. Atlanta is s 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 6 or more yppl in 2 consecutive games and has a great angle on its side as we play against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 144-95 ATS (60.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (470) Atlanta Falcons |
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11-30-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
Tampa Bay lost in Chicago last week and it now heads home trying to become the final team in the league to win at home as it is 0-5. The Buccaneers have been playing pretty good of late even though the record may not show it as despite being 1-3 in their last four games, the Buccaneers have outgained all four of those opponents. Three of those were no the road and while winless at home, Tampa Bay has lost three of the five home games by one possession including one in overtime. The Bengals have a half-game lead in the AFC North following two straight wins, both of which came on the road so this is their third straight road contest with Pittsburgh on deck, putting them in an awful spot this week. Cincinnati was getting three points at Houston and is now the betting favorite and a big public favorite as well. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage below .250 after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 50-20 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. The Buccaneers can easily take this one outright but we will gladly accept the points and even better, a spread that is above a key number. 10* (462) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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11-30-14 | New Orleans Saints +5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 50 h 6 m | Show |
New Orleans is arguably the most disappointing team in the league as it is 4-7 but because of the poor play of the entire division, it is still tied for first place. The Saints are still on the positive side in scoring differential and they have been outgained only three times all season while overall, they are outgaining opponents by 56.5 ppg,. The reason the record is so bad is because of turnovers as they have won the turnover differential only once all season. They don't have to worry much here though as the Steelers have been nearly as bad in that department as they have won the turnover battle only four times. Pittsburgh is just a half-game out in the AFC North so this game is big for them too but this line is inflated due to the three recent losses for the Saints, all coming at home, and their known struggles on the road. Despite a 1-4 record on the road, three of those losses have been by three points or less. The Steelers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games against losing teams while New Orleans is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg. While this is considered a must win for both sides, the Steelers have Cincinnati on deck next week presenting the possibility of a divisional lookahead game. 10* (465) New Orleans Saints |
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11-27-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers | 19-3 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 59 m | Show | |
The 49ers were thought to be dead following consecutive losses against the Broncos and Rams but they have bounced back nicely with three straight wins including two on the road and the most recent one this Sunday at home against Washington. They remain tied with Seattle for second place in the NFC West and while this is an extremely big game for both sides to keep pace with Arizona, it is bigger for the 49ers in that they still have a meeting in Seattle so they have to take care of business at home. The Seahawks bounced back from their loss in Kansas City with a win over Arizona at home which certainly helped out the whole division. Now they have to travel on short rest against a team that will be out for some revenge following a loss last season in the NFC Championship. Seattle covered all three meetings last season as well as both meetings in 2013 so this current streak is helping with the short price. These team are relatively equal from a power ranking standpoint so the home field edge should make the 49ers a three-point favorite but that is not the case so the value is on the home side as well. Seattle is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after allowing six points or less last game while the 49ers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games after playing a game at home. 9* (310) San Francisco 49ers |
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11-24-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. New Orleans Saints -2.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
The NFC South continued its disappointing season Sunday with first place Atlanta losing at home against Cleveland which put New Orleans back on the top spot by a half-game despite being two games under .500. The Saints have lost two straight games at home which is certainly a rarity and they have never lost three straight home games under head coach Sean Payton. If there is any team that can bounce back from that, it is the Saints as they love the spotlight by winning 14 straight primetime games at home including the playoffs by close to 20 ppg. In his last six Monday Night Football games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, all victories, Saints quarterback Drew Brees has completed nearly 75 percent of his passes and thrown 23 touchdowns with just two interceptions. The Ravens were off last week which gave them time to heal some injuries but they are still pretty banged up, especially in the secondary which is not a good thing. They are coming off a win over Tennessee and they will need to win to keep pace in the division but Baltimore is just 1-3 in its last four road games with the lone victory coming against Tampa Bay. Despite being just 4-5 over the last nine games, New Orleans has won the yardage battle in seven of those and they are outgaining opponents by 54.6 ypg which is fifth best in the NFL. Teams on three-game homestands can be in good positions depending on the outcome of the first two games and that is the case here as home teams that are coming off consecutive losses at home are 18-5 ATS. 10* (278) New Orleans Saints |
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11-23-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 71 h 10 m | Show |
While the term 'must win' gets thrown around a lot in the NFL circles, that phrase holds true for Seattle this coming Sunday. Following their loss at Kansas City last week, Seattle is just 3-3 over its last six games to fall to 6-4 on the season which is three games behind Arizona in the NFC West. A loss here and their chances of a divisional title are gone and even a Wild Card spot would be dim. The Seahawks face the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL but they still have five divisional games remaining so they can help control their own density. Seattle has not forgotten about Arizona coming in here last year and winning. The Cardinals are on a six-game winning streak and have covered all of those games as well so we are getting a lot of value based on that and their overall 9-1 record. They defeated Detroit last week with Drew Stanton starting at quarterback but now on the road in the toughest environment in football will cause him some struggles. We have two awesome situations on our side. First, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 70 and 95 ypg rushing going up against teams allowing between 70 and 95 ypg rushing. This situation is 33-7 ATS (82.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play against road teams coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 55-24 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Seattle is 8-0 ATS its last eight games as a home favorite of seven points or less. 10* (268) Seattle Seahawks *DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR* |
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11-23-14 | St. Louis Rams v. San Diego Chargers -4.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 8 m | Show |
The Chargers were able to snap their three-game losing streak last week against Oakland but they did not look particularly good in doing so. They won by just a touchdown and outgained Oakland by only 67 total yards and the non-cover made it five straight losses against the number. That does nothing but help us this week as San Diego is laying a shorter than expected number. The Chargers are 6-4 but because of the Denver loss last week, they are just a game out in the AFC West. That Broncos loss came compliments of St. Louis who has put together some good games against some very good teams but the problem is that the Rams cannot put together a winning streak. They have lost all three games following their previous wins this season and losing all three against the number as well. The last two follow up games have been on the road and they lost by 27 and 17 points and despite a 3-2 record over the last five games, the Rams were outgained in all five of those contests. Going back, the Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win while going 16-35 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning home record. San Diego is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game and has a great situation in its side as we play against road underdogs or pickems that are coming off a win by 14 or more points as a home underdog. This situation is 74-39 ATS (65.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (270) San Diego Chargers *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR* |
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11-23-14 | Detroit Lions +7.5 v. New England Patriots | Top | 9-34 | Loss | -115 | 68 h 5 m | Show |
The Lions lost a tough one in Arizona last Sunday as they lost by eight points, snapping their four-game winning streak. While it is well known they are not a great outdoor team, the value here is too good to pass up especially when they possess the best defense in the NFL. Detroit closed as a one-point favorite in Arizona and now it is a touchdown underdog so the linesmakers are saying there is an eight-point differential between the Cardinals and Patriots and that is simply not the case. A big reason that the line is as big as it is here is due to the recent play of the Patriots. They have won six straight games since that debacle in Kansas City, covering five of those, and of those six games, three were high profile games including the last two against Denver and Indianapolis and that is surely what the public remembers, thus the need for a line adjustment higher than it should be. The Lions fall into two solid angles here. First, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a yppl differential of +/- 0.4, after outgaining opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg, after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 38-15 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (255) Detroit Lions *ENFORCER* |
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11-23-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings +10 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
The Vikings were unable to continue their winning streak after their bye week as it came to an end in Chicago at two games. They head back home to take on Green Bay and will be out to seek some revenge from their 42-10 beatdown earlier this season. Minnesota is 2-2 at home and this is the start of a three-game homestand which is typically a good scenario for teams and I think that will be the case for Minnesota despite playing one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Packers are coming off dominating performances in consecutive weeks against the Bears and Eagles as they scored 55 and 53 points respectively. The game against Chicago was over before it started but the game last week was not nearly as bad as the score indicated. Green Bay scored three touchdowns via defense and special teams and no team is going to be able to recover from that. It is obviously imperative for the Vikings to take care of the ball and they have been able to do so of late as they have just three turnovers in their last four games compared to 10 turnovers in their first six games. Minnesota falls into a great contrarian situation as we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 74-37 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg in the second half of the season. 10* (258) Minnesota Vikings *ULTIMATE UNDERDOG* |
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11-20-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +8 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
With Kansas City's win over Seattle coupled with the Broncos loss to the Rams, the Chiefs are tied for first place with Denver in the AFC West. It was the fifth straight win and cover fro the Chiefs but you have to wonder how this team keeps winning. They are outgaining opponents by just 2.0 ypg on the season and they have been outgained in three straight games heading into Thursday night. That all leads to them being extremely overvalued this week and making matters worse, they have a home date with the Broncos next week. The Raiders are 0-10, have not won a game since November of last season and have dropped 16 straight games going back to that last victory over Houston. While Oakland does have its own problems, the fact that its last nine games have come against winning teams has not done it any favors. And while there have been blowouts, the Raiders have played a lot of teams tough, justified by their 5-5 record against the number. While there are some notable games left on the schedule, it is safe to say this is their Super Bowl similar to the Titans on Monday night in a nationally televised game. Oakland is 4-1 ATS this season when getting a touchdown or more and playing winless teams in the second half of the season in divisional games has been very lucrative over the last several years. Additionally, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 74-37 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (110) Oakland Raiders |
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11-17-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans +6 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 105 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Home underdogs have not been a good proposition on Monday night football of late as the last three hosts getting points have lost and failed to cover (Giants, Rams and Redskins) and we are given another opportunity tonight to buck the public. As of Monday morning, close to 30,000 bets have been placed with nearly 90 percent of the action hitting the Pittsburgh side. This is a rare Monday night game for Tennessee and while it has struggled, this is the one game where you know we will see its best efforts. The Steelers loss last week against the Jets was a surprise to many but not on this end with Pittsburgh coming off a three-game homestand and its historical play in the situation at hand. With that defeat, the Steelers are 0-7 against teams with losing records at least two games under .500 with the combined records of opponents being 9-36. The Steelers defense is in shambles right now. Not only is it 18th in scoring defense and 14th in total defense which by the way are the highest they have been ranked in those categories since 1991, but they are riddled with injuries. Troy Polamalu and Ryan Shazier are already declared out with many others on the fence. On the other side, other than a 37-point outburst at Carolina, Pittsburgh has scored three offensive touchdowns in its four other road games. Here we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games with a winning percentage of .250 or worse, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (476) Tennessee Titans |
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11-16-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears -3 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 70 h 31 m | Show |
It is no secret that the Bears have struggled but the schedulemakers have done them no favors. How's this for a start? Home game, two road games, home game, two road games, home game, two road games. This Sunday begins a stretch of five home games over their next six so if this season is to turn around, it has to start this week and with so many home games on a tap, angry fans will not be pleasant going forward. Chicago's last two games have come against the Patriots and Packers and it was humiliated in both games after allowing 51 and 55 points respectively. With the last one taking place on National Television last week, the Bears will be out to bounce back from that embarrassment which everyone witnessed. The Vikings are coming off their bye week following two straight wins and at 4-5 through nine games, they are just one win shy of their win total from all of last season. This is not a good spot for Minnesota though as it is catching the wrong team at the wrong time. Here, we play on teams after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in conference games. This situation is 81-44 ATS (64.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Minnesota is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games off a home win by three points or less while Chicago is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games off two consecutive road losses. Additionally, the Bears are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 10* (454) Chicago Bears |
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11-16-14 | Houston Texans +3 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 23-7 | Win | 110 | 70 h 30 m | Show |
Following its upset last Thursday in Cincinnati, Cleveland is in first place in the AFC North for the first time in November since 1994. The Browns were on a 0-17 run in road divisional games prior to last week as you have to go all the way back to the beginning of the 2008 season to find the last time they won on the AFC North highway. Can you say letdown with the lowly Texans coming to town this Sunday? Cleveland is a surprise to many but the jury is still out on how good this team really is considering the fact it has played the easiest schedule in the NFL and has been fortunate by winning or tying the turnover margin in all but one game. Houston is coming off its bye week which was a perfect time to make a quarterback change which it did as Ryan Mallet takes over for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick was far from horrible as he had a decent 8.1 quarterback rating, just below Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill and just above Matthew Stafford. Current head coach Bill O'Brien was Mallet's offensive coordinator when he was a rookie in New England so he definitely sees something positive in making this move. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in November games. This situation is 49-21 ATS (70 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (451) Houston Texans |
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11-16-14 | Seattle Seahawks +2.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -104 | 69 h 30 m | Show |
This is the first time this season that Seattle is listed as an underdog and it comes at an excellent time. The Seahawks went through a bit of a funk as they lost two straight games against Dallas and St. Louis and then narrowly slipped past Carolina and Oakland but they have won three straight games and are starting to get some of that swagger back. After the Giants put up a fight in the first half last week, Seattle ran away with the game in the second half so it comes in with some momentum. While it is the first time this season, it is just the fifth time in the last 38 games that Seattle has been getting points and it covered all four of those previous instances. The Chiefs are hot with a four-game winning streak while having covered all of those games as well. That is the biggest factor in making them the favorite here but while it is justified based on power ratings, I don't think it is justified based on the stats. Kansas City is outgaining opponents by just over 10 ypg and it has been outgained in its last two games. While the home edge is big because of the noise, Seattle is no stranger to noise and with Arizona and San Francisco on deck in four of their next five games, this is a must win for the Seahawks. Seattle is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off a home win and 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl last game and that is where that momentum really comes into play. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (457) Seattle Seahawks |
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11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
With the Saints losing on Sunday, Carolina knows that a win here has it right back in first place in the NFC South, the only division in football without a team with a winning record. The Panthers have struggled of late with a 0-3-1 record over their last four games but the schedule has been rigid. They have faced the Bengals on the road and then followed that up with games against Green Bay, Seattle and New Orleans. Philadelphia is no slouch certainly but it is far from full strength now with quarterback Nick Foles out of the lineup for at least the remainder of the regular season. He has done an awesome job in leading the Eagles high powered offense which currently is averaging 29.3 ppg and 409.3 ypg, respectively 5th and 4th in the NFL. Now they have to move forward with Mark Sanchez who looked good at times last week against Houston when he came in but this is still a backup quarterback we are talking about. This is a good thing for the Panthers whose defense has regressed since finishing second in both total defense and scoring defense a season ago. On the other side, the Eagles defense is very average which will give Carolina a great opportunity to bounce back from its recent struggles. The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Panthers also fall into a great contrarian situation based on the scoring as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (273) Carolina Panthers |
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11-09-14 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +12.5 | 41-17 | Loss | -120 | 75 h 59 m | Show | |
The Broncos are coming off a bad loss in New England so there will be many jumping on Denver this week looking for a rebound. After all, Denver walloped Arizona following its first loss this season but that game was at home and the Broncos were off a bye. Now they have to hit the road again and against a bitter rival which would want nothing more than to pick up its first win in this matchup. While Denver is clearly the superior team, it is not going to be easy as many may think. The Raiders are coming off another gallant effort last week in Seattle but they are still winless on the season. They have played a lot better of late and with no shot at the postseason, this is their playoff game. Divisional underdogs of a touchdown or more are 6-1 ATS the last seven games this season going back to Week Five which shows that no matter how much better one team is perceived than the other one, it ends up being a dogfight because of the rivalry hatred and the familiarity between the two. Home underdogs in the NFL were usually a sure lock but that has not been the case in recent years but ones that are catching more than a touchdown are still very profitable at a 26-8 ATS clip. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points in the second half of the season after seven or more consecutive losses. This simple yet effective situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. on top of that, Denver is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in five straight games. 9* (266) Oakland Raiders |
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11-09-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. NY Jets +6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
The Jets were one of our big plays last week and they were a couple plays of not only covering but having a chance to pull off the outright upset. They are a team that has been doing nothing but hurting themselves as mistakes has been the biggest cause of their eight-game losing streak. New York has outgained each of its last three opponents but obviously has no wins to show for it and the real kicker is that on the season, the Jets are actually outgaining opponents by 4.8 ypg. You will not find many teams in the history of this league that are 1-8 but outgaining their opponents. The Steelers are the biggest consensus pick of the week which come as no surprise with the Jets problems as well as the fact Pittsburgh is now on a three-game winning streak. All of those came at home and you could not have asked for better situations in any of those. Coming off a three-game homestand has been a disaster for a lot of teams as they lose more than they win and this situation is even better considering the Steelers are facing a team that is 1-8 and not from their division. The Jets have two fantastic situations backing them as well. First, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1983. Next, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 73-37 ATS (66.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (262) New York Jets |
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11-09-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
The Dolphins have quietly won three straight games but there was nothing quiet last week with their 37-0 trouncing of the Chargers and that of course is what the public remembers. The winning streak could feasibly be five games right now has Miami not lost in the final seconds at home against Green Bay but nonetheless it is just a game and a half behind the Patriots in the AFC East and already with a victory over New England. While the Dolphins have been exceptional on the road the last few years, they head into Detroit in a very unfavorable spot. The Lions are also riding a three-game winning streak and coming off their bye week following their come-from-behind win over Atlanta in London two weeks ago. It is a well known fact that winning teams across the pond have struggled in their first game back but the situations have been different. Detroit has back-to-back road games at Arizona and New England on deck so it knows it needs to take care of business at home plus the Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. Detroit was favored by 1.5 points over the Saints in their last home game and to be favored by not much more here is surprising. The Dolphins are 1-14 ATS in their last 15 games after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better and they fall into a negative situation where we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (254) Detroit Lions |
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11-06-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 23 m | Show |
At first glance, this number seems pretty high for a divisional game where the teams are separated by just a half game for first place. But in reality, I don't think it is enough as these teams are not as equal as the records may show. Cleveland is one of the pleasant surprises in the NFL as it is off to a 5-3 start but that record is extremely skewed. The Browns have been outgained in six of their eight games and that always catches up to teams, especially when three of those negative TYD's have taken place the last three games. And even worse is that those were against Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay which are a combined 2-23 on the season. Winning the last two games shows some clutch performances but that should not be the case against bottom of the barrel teams. The Bengals have not exactly been tearing it up either as they are 2-2-1 over their last five games but the two losses came against the Patriots and Colts, both on the road, and there is no shame in those defeats. This is the third straight home game for the Bengals which is a big advantage when playing the third game on a short week and it is even bigger with three straight road games upcoming including the first one taking place in New Orleans. The Browns have played the easiest schedule in the league and they are by far the lowest ranked winning team in my most recent power rankings. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record while the Bengals have gone 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 regular season home games. 10* (110) Cincinnati Bengals |
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11-02-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +11.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 77 h 23 m | Show | |
Get ready for an ugly one as we are backing the Jaguars who come in at 1-7 on the season following another loss last week, this one at home against the Dolphins. Jacksonville is making progress though as it has outgained each of its three opponents and we are seeing a similar pattern to last season. The Jaguars opened 2013 by losing their first eight games only to finish 4-4 over their second half of the season so they are already a step ahead and are playing better than they were at this point last year when they had outgained only one opponent through eight games. The Bengals were fortunate, as were we, to cash with them last week as they escaped against Baltimore. Now they find themselves squarely inside a divisional sandwich as they host Cleveland next week in a game they may already be preparing for since it comes on Thursday. The Bengals are still pretty automatic at home when it comes to winning but things have been tight the last two games and now they are laying double-digits at home for the first time since 2009 and going back, they are 0-4 ATS when laying 10 or more points. Two situations are on our side. First, we play against home favorites off a win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points that are allowing 24 or more ppg, after a loss by 10 or more points. This situation is 42-18 ATS (70 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (453) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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11-02-14 | NY Jets +10.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -130 | 77 h 24 m | Show |
After winning with the Jets two weeks ago, we lost with them last Sunday against Buffalo as Geno Smith threw three picks on his first four possessions which led to him getting benched and New York was unable to recover. Michael Vick takes over as the starter and while he is not a big upgrade, he is an upgrade nonetheless and working in practice with the first team all week should have him much better prepared this week. The Jets have dropped seven straight games to fall to 1-7 but the strange thing is that they have been outgained by a paltry 11 yards on the entire season. We all know that means and it is pretty obvious where the problems lie when your turnover margin is at -13, an NFL worst. Smith was responsible for 12 of 16 giveaways so we are banking on that getting better. The Chiefs followed up an upset win over San Diego by easily defeating the Rams last week which were coming off an upset home victory over Seattle in their previous game. Hosting the Jets is not going to get the juiced flowing especially with a game at 5-3 Buffalo next week following by Seattle and then two divisional games. Kansas City is a good team but are they good enough to be laying double-digits? The last time that happened was in 2005 so I'm saying no. Contrarian thinking says to play on road underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (461) New York Jets |
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11-02-14 | San Diego Chargers +1.5 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 0-37 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 23 m | Show |
We play on and lost with San Diego last Thursday night in Denver. Had the Chargers won that game, we would not be playing them here but coming off two straight losses and in danger of falling further back in the playoff chasing pack, we will ride them here playing on extra rest. San Diego has been outplayed in both of the recent losses, losing the yardage battle by 114 and 119 total yards so it has gone from dominating during a five-game winning streak to being outplayed over the last two weeks. Bring on the Dolphins as they have won two in a row, both on the road, and they have dropped two straight at home. Granted, those losses came against Kansas City and Green Bay but we can put the Chargers in that category of solid teams. Miami has been outgained in four of their last six games and while the yardage differentials have been minimal, it has still been on the wrong end which is not a good sign. It has come down to turnovers and the same can be said for the Chargers with both being on the opposite ends. That brings in a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 42-14 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, San Diego is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 10* (451) San Diego Chargers |
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11-02-14 | Philadelphia Eagles -1 v. Houston Texans | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 77 h 23 m | Show |
I'm typically not one to lay points on the road but this is an exception as the Eagles have played great the last two weeks only to split their games. They destroyed the Giants three weeks ago which led into their bye week only to lose against the Cardinals last week after giving up a 75-yard touchdown pass with 1:21 remaining and then getting stopped on the Arizona 16-yard line following three straight incomplete passes. Philadelphia hits the road once again and road teams coming off a road loss have fared very well over the years, going 70-26 ATS in the month of November over the last 10 years. Turnovers have killed the Eagles this season as they are -7 in margin and have won the turnover battle only once in seven games. Houston took care of Tennessee on the road last week which snapped a three-game losing streak. The Texans have outgained each of their last two opponents after getting outgained in each of their first six games so they are either trending in the right direction or it is a false perception. I am backing the latter as they have been outgained in 11 of 14 games going back to last season they are also part of a turnover situation, but not in their favor. We play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The better team wins which means a likely cover as well. 10* (459) Philadelphia Eagles |
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10-30-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 28-10 | Win | 103 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Despite being winless on the road, the Saints have gone from a pickem on Thursday to a small favorite over Carolina. I think that is the right move that came early in the week shortly after release and once we get closer to gametime, we will likely see the line continue to rise so it is best to bet this one now. New Orleans is coming off an excellent performance on Sunday night against the Packers even though it won the yardage battle by just four yards. The Saints have dropped seven straight regular season games on the road but they were able to cover their last one in Detroit and they are getting a good matchup here. Carolina is coming off a hard fought loss against Seattle on Sunday and after a 2-0 start, the Panthers are 1-4-1 over their last six games. They outgained Tampa Bay by 70 total yards in their season opener but since then, they have been outgained in their last seven games. The fact that three of those resulted in non-losses is fortunate as getting outgain in this league tends to lead to losses the vast majority of the time. New Orleans has won 13 of its last 15 games when scoring 40 or more points as it tends to carry momentum forward which makes this short week actually a good thing in keeping that momentum rolling. We play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are being outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) New Orleans Saints |
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10-27-14 | Washington Redskins +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
Washington snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over Tennessee last week and while that won't be impressing many people, it put a halt to the skid and with that pressure now gone, the Redskins can play loose against one of their most hated rivals. The offense has been doing nothing of late but installing Colt McCoy into the starting lineup at quarterback could be the spark that the Redskins need. It has been a bad run for Washington which seeks its first division victory since Week 17 of 2012, and its first two-game winning streak since winning back-to-back games in the final two games of the 2012 season. Those are the types of streaks the public fades and we play on. Dallas is having a surprisingly great season as it has won six straight games while covering five of those. Last week the Cowboys defeated the Giants as 4.5 point favorites and now they are favored by 5.5 points more and there is not a chance Washington is 5.5 points worse than New York. Division games have a certain mystique about them for obvious reasons and this one is no different which makes this point spread completely out of whack. It also brings in an odd dynamic as the Cowboys go from double-digit underdogs two weeks ago to double-digit favorites and while that differential can be seen in college football now and again, it is a rarity in this league. The Cowboys are 8-20 ATS against teams with a losing record while going 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with a losing road record. The underdog is 24-8 ATS in their last 32 meetings in this series and I expect that to continue tonight. 10* (277) Washington Redskins |
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10-26-14 | Green Bay Packers v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 78 h 44 m | Show |
With the Saints loss last Sunday in Detroit, they have fallen to 2-4 on the season but the good news is that they are part of the worst division in football and are just one game behind Carolina in the NFC South. This is the start of four home games over their next five and that is huge for a team that is completely different in the friendly confines of their dome than they are on the road. The host is a perfect 6-0 in New Orleans games this season and I expect that to continue by the end of the night. Green Bay is coming off a blowout win over Carolina to run its winning streak to four games and it remains tied with Detroit for first place in the NFC North. The Packers are playing great right now and of course the public is well aware of this which is keeping this line lower than it should be. This could be the worst time for the Packers to have to travel to New Orleans and the primetime slot only makes it a bigger home field edge. Under Drew Brees, the Saints are 14-3 ATS in 17 home games coming off a road loss while under head coach Sean Payton, they are 14-4 ATS in 18 games following any loss of six points or less. The Packers meanwhile have failed to cover in their last five games against teams with a losing record while going 1-11 ATS in their last 12 non-divisional games with a line between +3 and -3. 10* (276) New Orleans Saints |
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10-26-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | Top | 34-51 | Win | 100 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
The Steelers came through for us last Monday against Houston and there were definitely some good fortunes involved there. While it wasn't their best game overall, the win itself was huge and they can carry that into this week. This is the second of three straight home games for Pittsburgh and it needs to take advantage as the back end of the schedule is brutal. The Steelers are only a game out of first place in the AFC North and with first place Baltimore on deck, this game becomes very important. The hottest team in the AFC is Indianapolis as it has won five straight games while winning at the betting window in all of those games as well. If not for a blown penalty against the Eagles, Indianapolis could feasibly be undefeated against the number but nonetheless, the linesmakers have adjusted this number based on their current run. The Colts have dominated during this stretch, outgaining foes by an average of 212.4 ypg and while some won't step in front of that train, we will go against it here. Pittsburgh has a solid situation on its side also as we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against team allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing nine points or less last game. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1983. This is an excellent test for the Steelers and we see their first real complete game since winning at Carolina last month. 10* (272) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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10-26-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals +1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 70 h 15 m | Show |
The Bengals are coming off their worst offensive game in a long time. They gained a mere 135 total yards which was the first time they have been held to fewer than 150 yards of total offense since 2009 in the final game of the regular season. This is now two straight games where Cincinnati has looked completely different than what it looked like at the start of the season and of course, this recent play is what bettors remember the most. On the flip side, Baltimore won its second straight game to move to 5-2 overall with four of those wins coming by 20 or more points. Because of those, the Ravens have a +89 scoring differential which is tops in the NFL. That along with the Bengals recent troubles has given us an exceptional number as the short-term memory of bettors is favoring the contrarian side. The Bengals fall into two outstanding situations. First, we play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.4 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against teams that are revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Baltimore is looking for some payback no doubt however it could not be in a worse spot to try and accomplish that. The Bengals get back to their early season form. 10* (268) Cincinnati Bengals |
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10-26-14 | Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets -2.5 | Top | 43-23 | Loss | -125 | 70 h 15 m | Show |
We won with the Jets last Thursday as they played one of their best games of the season despite losing outright against the Patriots. While there is the letdown factor of playing a good game and not winning, the extended time off from last Thursday will help in dealing with that. And even with the effort last week, New York is desperate for a victory. Buffalo meanwhile is coming off a last second victory and that definitely spells letdown following the one point victory over the Vikings. It came with a price though as the Bill lost their top two running backs and now will have to move on with Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown as their lead backs. While the Bills have won twice on the road and could have won a third time at Houston, they are in a tough spot and have not fared well of late, going 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog of three points or less while going 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after playing a game at home. Additionally, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, playing a team with a winning percentage of less than .250. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) since 1983. Look for the Jets to finally snap their long losing streak with a comfortable win on Sunday. 10* (262) New York Jets |
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10-23-14 | San Diego Chargers +7.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
The Broncos are coming off one of their best games of the season to make it three straight wins heading into this big AFC West showdown with San Diego. Denver is showing it is still the team to beat and while it sits stop my power rakings, I don't like the spot or the matchup it is involved in. San Diego meanwhile is coming off its second loss of the season as it fell at home by a field goal to the Chiefs. That coupled with the Broncos win gives us the dichotomous results angle which tells us to go opposite of the most recent occurrences. We can take it a step further by going against the streaks of the Broncos three straight cover wins and the Chargers two straight cover losses. The Chargers match up very well with Denver and a lot of that is due to the familiarity of head coach Mike McCoy with the Broncos. Last season, the Chargers beat the Broncos, in large part, by shutting down their offense and they kept the other two games close as well. At times it looked as if McCoy knew their offensive plays as well as they did. In three games against McCoy's game plan, the Broncos averaged 24 ppg, two touchdowns below their season average. We won against San Diego last week but are backing them here expecting a big bounce back and in addition, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 141-87 ATS (61.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, San Diego is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog. 10* (103) San Diego Chargers |
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10-20-14 | Houston Texans v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 84 h 41 m | Show |
The Steelers are coming off an embarrassing loss against division rival Cleveland and while they have regressed the last couple years, I expect a big bounceback on Monday night. Pittsburgh is now 3-3 but is just a game and a half behind the Bengals in the AFC North so there is plenty of room to make a move. This is the first of three straight home games for the Steelers and the other two going to be tough ones against the Colts and Ravens so they know they have to take care of business here. Houston put up a solid effort against Indianapolis last Thursday but fell short and it also fell to 3-3 on the season. That record can be considered a mirage however as the Texans have been outgained in all six of their games this season, the last two coming by 126 yards and 124 yards. The lone road win this season came at winless Oakland and going back to last season, they are 2-12 over their last 14 road games. The Steelers have thrived in these spots as they are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as favorites of three points or more coming off a double-digit loss when facing an opponent also off a loss. They have won 15 straight Monday night home games including seven straight wins at Heinz Field since it opened, winning those games by an average of 12.3 ppg. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after having lost two of their last three games while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 30 or more points. 10* (478) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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10-19-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 96 h 39 m | Show |
We played against the Chargers last week as they went to Oakland laying a big number and barely came back home with the victory. Conventional thinking would be to back San Diego this week coming off a poor effort but we are anything but conventional and we will be fading the Chargers again in their second of three straight divisional games. The third one comes next week in Denver on Thursday so there could definitely be a case of peeking ahead to that one. Additionally, San Diego was in a very hard fought, physical game last week in Oakland while the Chiefs are coming off their bye week which happened to follow a loss at San Francisco prior to that. That put a halt to their two-game winning streak and sitting at 2-3, this is a very pivotal game in order to keep pace within the division. Kansas City failed to win following its bye week a season ago but the situation was different as it went in 9-0 and was playing at Denver. That was just the second loss in 18 games for head coach Andy Reid coming off a two-week break. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 coming off a road loss. This situation is 95-52 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (469) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-19-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Jacksonville Jaguars +6 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 93 h 35 m | Show |
The Jaguars came oh so close to their first win of the season last week as they fought Tennessee to the end only to lose by two points. The good news for Jacksonville backers is that it got its first cover of the season which is a move in the right direction in trying to attain its first outright victory. While the Jaguars were unable to cover their first two home games, they are getting the same number this week as they were in those first two games but are the Browns really that good to be laying this type of number? I don't think so. Cleveland is coming off a big win over the Steelers but it won the yardage battle by only nine total yards so the game was a lot closer than the score indicated. The Browns are playing good but they have not been favored by this much on the road since they came back to Cleveland back in 1999, a span of 122 games. So the fact the Browns are being asked to lay this number coming off a big divisional win is a little too much. Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against teams who give up 24 or more ppg and it falls into a negative situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (458) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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10-19-14 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 93 h 34 m | Show |
It is a well known fact that New Orleans struggles on the road as it has lost all three games on the road this season but the situation is different this week. The Saints were favored in three of those road games and now they are getting points in Detroit which is certainly more than fair as linesmakers are making the proper adjustment. New Orleans is in a very good spot though as it matches up well against the Lions and the indoor atmosphere certainly will not hurt. Detroit won at Minnesota last week to improve to 4-2 on the season ad remain in a first place tie with Green Bay in the NFC North. While the defense has been playing at a very high level, the offense is not doing much and it is no coincidence. The big edge here for New Orleans is in fact its defense as it will be facing a horrendous offensive line that Detroit possesses. The Saints have struggled on defense but they could be in store for a big turnaround game. Making matters worse for the Lions is the fact that they are 4-19 ATS in their last 23 games against team allowing 27 or more ppg. Additionally, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (467) New Orleans Saints |
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10-16-14 | NY Jets +10 v. New England Patriots | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show |
The Jets have to cover at some point and this looks like the best spot for it to happen. We got puked on last week when Geno Smith threw a pick six in the waning seconds to blow the cover for us against Denver and while it has been a rough season for New York with five straight losses, this is a game they will be sky high for. The Patriots were thought to be done a few short weeks ago after getting blown out by Kansas City but now they are once again being praised as being back. I don't think they were ever gone but I also do not think they are as good as some do think and they should not be laying this many points to a division rival, no matter the record differentials. While it may not seem like it, the Jets defense is still pretty good as they are ranked sixth overall but has been hurt by getting pinned deep in their own end of the field several times. The Jets fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Patriots are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while going 2-9 ATS since 2012 as a favorite of 8 or more points during the regular season. 10* (303) New York Jets |
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10-12-14 | NY Giants +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 0-27 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 39 m | Show | |
After losing their first two games, the Giants were being tossed around as possibly the first team to quit on their coach this season but that was clearly not the case. After a dreadful preseason on offense, it carried over into those first two games but that the new system is finally starting to become more familiar to the players, we are seeing the success. New York has won three straight games while averaging 35 ppg in the process and they are catching the Eagles at the perfect time. Philadelphia may be 4-1 on the season but they are arguably the worst one loss team in the NFL and could be sitting at 1-4 right now. The Eagles have been outgained by 132, 194 and 114 yards over their last three games and while they have been scoring plenty of points, the offensive efficiency is actually one of the worst in the league. And the defense has been bad as they are ranked 28th overall and 25th in points allowed. Sunday night divisional underdogs have been money in these roles as we play on divisional underdogs of six points or less playing a team with a winning percentage of .667 or better. This situation is 18-3 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1987. The underdog has covered 14 of the last 19 meetings in this series and that certainly favors the Giants which has been road warriors, going 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 road games against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 home games. 9* (275) New York Giants |
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10-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +7.5 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 76 h 25 m | Show |
Many predicted San Diego to be a sleeper team in the NFL this season and so far it is living up to expectations. If for not blowing an 11-point lead in Arizona opening weekend, the Chargers would be 5-0 right now and the only undefeated team remaining in the NFL. The one thing they are undefeated at is their record against the number, going a perfect 5-0 ATS and they are the only team that has yet to fail on a cover this year. San Diego cruised to a win over the Jets last Sunday and it could not have looked better as it outgained New York 439-151 and that makes this the perfect time to go against the Chargers especially with the Chiefs on deck. Oakland had a week off which came at a perfect time and it also will be breaking in a new coach after Dennis Allen was hired and replace by interim coach Tony Soprano. The Raiders got thumped in London in their last game but that works in their favor here as in the eight previous games played across the pond, there have been five teams that lost by more than a touchdown prior to this year and all five of those teams covered their next game with four winning outright and the other resulting in the Rams/49ers tie back in 2012. this is just the second home game of the season for Oakland and despite losing its first against Houston, it outgained the Texans by 37 total yards. Great spot here for the Raiders. 10* (270) Oakland Raiders |
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10-12-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Miami Dolphins +3.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 73 h 19 m | Show | |
The Packers are coming off a flawless performance last Thursday night against Minnesota but they had the advantage of the Vikings not being able to keep up because of the quarterback issues. Green Bay is now 3-2 on the season following its second straight victory but it is hard to ignore the home/road dichotomy when it comes to the stats. In two home games, Green Bay has won the yardage battle by 78 and 21 yards which is not very impressive. On the road, it is even worse as the Packers have been outgained by 143, 130 and 138 yards and its -62.4 ypg variance is fifth worst in the NFL. Conversely, the Dolphins are +32 ypg in yardage variance as they have been outgained just twice and by a total of 35 yards. Miami is coming off a dominating performance in London over the Raiders and is also coming off its bye week. The Dolphins are 1-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming against Kansas City in a game that was closer than the final score indicates. While we don't usually talk about weather until later in the season when snow or wind can affect a game, the weather in Miami can be a big advantage with temperatures getting close to 90 degrees and that can take its toll on a team from Green Bay. Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 home games while the Packers are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-divisional games with a line of -3 to +3. 9* (260) Miami Dolphins |
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10-12-14 | New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +3 | Top | 37-22 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 20 m | Show |
As fast as we jumped on the Patriots last week following their horrible performance at Kansas City two weeks ago, we will jump off them just as fast this week following their great performance this past Sunday night against the Bengals. Everyone had them written off but now it seems everyone has jumped back on them and this line is a reaction to that. While I don't think they were as bad as they looked in Kansas City, I don't think they are as good as they looked last week and the Bengals just did not show up. Now New England goes into the rare situation of going from a home underdog to a road favorite within the span of a week and that plays into a great situation explained at the end. The Bills are getting no credit here but coming off a come-from-behind win at Detroit has this team brimming with confidence as it tries to knock off its division rival for the first time since 2011, a span of five straight losses. The Bills could feasibly be 4-1 if not for giving a game away at Houston and they are coming in here with a chip on their should due to the lack of respect. Here we play against divisional road favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog going up against teams coming off a win. This situation is 14-3 ATS (82.4 percent) since 1980. The Patriots simply cannot be trusted on the road anymore as they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 highway games. 10* (266) Buffalo Bills |
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10-12-14 | Denver Broncos v. NY Jets +11 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 19 m | Show |
We made a horrible call on the Jets last week in San Diego as they were humiliated 31-0. the mustered a mere 151 yards of total offense and were outgained by 288 yards in the process. New York is now 1-4 on the season and it has yet to cover a game so we knew this line would be big coming in but it has now gotten out of control. While Denver is considered the best team in the AFC, San Diego is no longer far behind which makes this line completely inaccurate. If this game were being played in Denver, the Broncos would be roughly a 16-point favorite and last week the Chargers were favored by seven points which states that Denver is nine points better than San Diego? I don't think so. This line is purely an overreaction to last week and the short-term memory that gamblers have. The Broncos are coming off a near perfect performance against Arizona last week and that is also being taken into consideration with this number. That was a big bounce back game for Denver which was coming off a loss in Seattle preceding its bye so you knew they were going to come out strong. With home games against San Francisco and San Diego on deck, being fully focused here is very unlikely. Denver is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win while New York 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after scoring less than 15 points. 10* (252) New York Jets |
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10-09-14 | Indianapolis Colts -2.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
We do not typically lay points on the road in the NFL but we are making the exception here as we are catching a line that is very favorable. The Colts enter Thursday night riding a three-game winning streak after starting the season 0-2 and they can put some ground between them and the rest of the division with a victory tonight. The two losses came against Philadelphia and Denver, both of which have just one loss and they actually ended up outgaining the Broncos. That is part of a big reasoning for playing Indianapolis here. It has outgained four of its five opponents with the last three coming by 185, 237 and 135 yards and overall, the average margin is +97.4 ypg. In contrast, the Texans have not outgained a single opponent this season and they have been outgained by an average of 47.6 ypg which isn't a huge amount but the fact they have not been on the plus side in the stats is a huge concern. The schedules have not been the reasoning either as Houston has played the 29th ranked schedule while the Colts have played the 30th ranked slate. The difference has been turnovers for the Texans as they have 12 takeaways and their turnover percentage is ranked third in the NFL. After committing five turnovers in the first four games, the Colts had four last week so that can be chalked up as an anomaly. We will take our chances with the much better quarterback and the undoubtedly better 3-2 team here. 10* (101) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-06-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins +7.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
While I think the Seattle defense is not getting the credit it deserves based on what the media is blurting out, the same can be said for the Redskins defense. While they have allowed 82 points the last two weeks, the defense is not to blame on all of that. Six turnovers against the Giants last week led to 31 points and the four touchdowns were all on short fields including two from 24 and 22 yards. The Giants had the ball for close to 15 minutes more than the Redskins which led to more yards and the wearing out the Washington defense. Against the Eagles, they allowed just 379 yards but penalties and special teams hurt them there. They don't have to play a perfect game to succeed here but they just have to be better in other areas to help the defense. Kirk Cousins had a dreadful game last week, posting a 53.0 passer rating which came after putting up rating of 109.4 and 103.4 his first two games. Getting through the Seahawks defense will not be easy as it has en elite secondary so we should see more short passes and running from Washington which can shorten the game, keep Seattle off the field on offense and that benefits the underdog. The Redskins fall into a spectacular situation where we play on home underdogs of three points or more that are coming off a loss of 24 or more points. This situation is 31-11 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1980. Additionally, Washington is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit loss at home. While the public is all over the over yet again, it is also all over Seattle yet we have seen this line drop so the reverse line movement is on our side. 10* (478) Washington Redskins |
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10-05-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. New England Patriots +2 | Top | 17-43 | Win | 100 | 82 h 53 m | Show |
Anyone who watches ESPN or follows some of the other media outlets on Twitter has been told over and over again that the Patriots are done and Tom Brady is washed up. Clearly, things are not right in New England as it is now 2-2 following its shellacking at the hands of the Chiefs last Monday night. Brady is having his worst season statistically as he is still trying to work with some new personnel but there is no chance we will see him down for very long. New England opened as the favorite here and after everyone saw what happened Monday, it is now a home underdog for the first time since 2005. Cincinnati comes in at 3-0 and fresh off its bye week. The Bengals opened the season on the road at Baltimore but this is the first time they have had to travel since then. Being favored here is clearly an overadjustment and we can prove that based on their last game. Being a point favorite here would make them a seven-point favorite at home which is a half-point higher than what they were favored b y over the Titans in their last game. The Titans a half-point better than New England? I think not. Additionally, we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (476) New England Patriots |
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10-05-14 | NY Jets +7 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 49 m | Show |
This is the classic contrarian play in going against spread records as well as teams going in the opposite direction. The Jets opened the season with a win over the Raiders, which isn't saying much, but they have now lost three straight games to fall to 1-3 and 0-3-1 ATS. Overall, New York is outgaining opponents by an average of 74.7 ypg but the difference between wins and losses has been turnovers where it is -6 in turnover margin. After dropping its opening game in Arizona, San Diego has won three straight games and overall the Chargers are 4-0 against the number which has inflated this line a significant amount. They have been the opposite of New York when it comes to turnovers as the Chargers are +5 in turnover margin and they have not turned it over in three straight games. While the Jets have a significant edge in yardage margin, San Diego is just +26.3 ypg. Adding all of this up proves how much turnovers can affect a team, whether good or bad, and how much it can influence records and with that, public perception. The Jets have a positive situation on their side based on turnovers as we play on teams after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 134-81 ATS (62.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the point differential being +2 ppg favoring the play on team. 10* (473) New York Jets |
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10-05-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Denver Broncos -7 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 78 h 39 m | Show | |
Both Arizona and Denver are coming off their bye weeks which typically would not give an edge to either side. But in this case, what happened prior to last week is what really matters. The Broncos lost their last game at Seattle in overtime to fall to 2-1 on the season. We remember last season when Denver came out of the games and started 6-0 with six solid efforts. This season though it has yet to put together a dominating effort as both wins came by just one touchdown and the Broncos have been outgained in all three games. While that normally calls for a go against, this is not your average team and they will come out with a big effort. The Cardinals are one of two remaining undefeated teams and while I have them ranked high in the power rankings mostly due to stats, I think they are overrated. The only road game so far was at New York against a Giants team still trying to figure things out. Without Carson Palmer at quarterback, Arizona could be in for a very long day. The Broncos are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against teams allowing 235 or more ypg, which will have Peyton Manning licking his chops, and they fall into a powerful situation where we play against teams coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 9* (470) Denver Broncos |
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10-05-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Tennessee Titans -1 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -125 | 75 h 35 m | Show |
We lost with Tennessee last week as the Titans got crushed in Indianapolis but we will come back with them here this week After opening the season with a win at Kansas City, Tennessee has dropped three straight games all by 16 points or more. That makes this the perfect play on situation as we get line value with a team in desperate need of a victory. The schedule hasn't helped much as three of the first four games have all come on the road. The Titans will be getting Jake Locker back this week after a poor effort from Charlie Whitehurst against the Colts and that could make a big difference here. The Brown are 1-2 but have been involved in every game with the two losses coming on last second field goals. While the games have been close, Cleveland has yet to outgain any of its three opponents which does tell a different story. This is the first road game in a month for the Browns as they have played two in a row at home followed by their bye week. Tennessee is ranked 30th in scoring offense but this could be the breakout game against a poor Browns defense. The low offensive output favors the Titans in a solid situation as we play on teams that are averaging between 14 and 18 ppg against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (454) Tennessee Titans |
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10-05-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints -10 | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 34 m | Show |
New Orleans is 1-3 and it is being written off by some of the media which is far from accurate. The Saints do have an uphill battle for sure but those three losses all came on the road so now the time comes to get back home and take advantage of the huge edge they have here. There is no doubt this is a must win game and it is even important as New Orleans has their bye next week and going into that 1-4 with a game at Detroit the following week spells disaster. Teams that are a touchdown or more at home the week before their bye are 35-9 ATS. Tampa Bay got into the win column last week with an upset at Pittsburgh in the final seconds. That was a huge win for the Buccaneers following their debacle at Atlanta 10 days before but I cannot see them hanging around here in what is their third straight road game. Tampa Bay has been outgained in all four games and by an average of 103.5 ypg as it brings in the 29th ranked scoring offense and 31st ranked scoring defense as well. The Saints thrive in these spots, going 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams allowing 260 or more passing ypg. They also fall into a solid situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 102-56 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (460) New Orleans Saints |
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09-28-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -113 | 103 h 9 m | Show |
New Orleans picked up its first win of the season last week at home against Minnesota after dropping its first two games at Atlanta and at Cleveland. I typically like to go against the Saints on the road and even more so when they are road favorites as they have failed to cover six straight games in that role. The situation is different here though as New Orleans can ill afford to fall to 1-3 on the season and they are facing a team they should have no issues with. The Cowboys have won their last two games but they have been outgained by a combined 54 yards in those games so they have been far from dominating. They had to rally from a 21-0 deficit to beat the lowly Rams last week but going back to 2011, Dallas has lost five of its last six games following consecutive wins. The Cowboys will be out for revenge and while that is an angle we like to ride in certain situations, the 49-17 drubbing only shows the differences between the two teams. The Drew Brees-led offense put up 625 yards, the most the Cowboys allowed in a game just two weeks after they allowed 623 to the Detroit Lions. The defense is ranked 21st this season but this is by far its biggest test to date. The Cowboys 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home against teams with a losing road record while the 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games against teams with a winning record. They also fall into a solid situation where we play on teams after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 133-80 ATS (62.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (271) New Orleans Saints |
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09-28-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. San Francisco 49ers -5 | 21-26 | Push | 0 | 99 h 15 m | Show | |
San Francisco came up small for us last week and like the Packers, many feel something is seriously wrong. I am not one of those however. The 49ers lost the turnover battle 4-0 against the Bears and rarely will a team win with that kind of deficit. Last week against the Cardinals, the defense broke down on back-to-back drives in the third quarter as 151 of the 338 total yards allowed came on those two possessions. Elite teams bounce back from that which is what we should see this week as San Francisco looks to win its first game at the new Levi's Stadium. The Eagles come in a perfect 3-0 on the season but in reality, it has been far from perfect. They had to rally from double-digit deficits in the first two games against the Jaguars and Colts and last week, it had to hold off a charge by the Redskins where they were outgained by 132 total yards. The offense has been putting up points but now Philadelphia faces its biggest challenge of the season. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers are 9-2 ATS when facing teams that are averaging 375 or more ypg on offense while also going 9-2 ATS against teams allowing 24 or more ppg on defense. San Francisco is off to a 1-2 start for second straight season and will look to avoid a three-game skid for first time since 2010. The 49ers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games off a loss as road favorite and even better, they are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games off loss as a favorite of any sort. The Eagles are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 9* (268) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-28-14 | Tennessee Titans +7.5 v. Indianapolis Colts | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an overreaction line from last week after Indianapolis crushed Jacksonville and Tennessee was crushed at Cincinnati. The Colts blowout of the Jaguars cannot be looked at into too much and even though we were on the wrong side of that, we have concluded that Jacksonville is clearly the worst team in football after thinking this team was on the rise. The titans loss against the Bengals was also a loss for us last week but we can't ignore the fact that that Tennessee outgained Cincinnati by 26 total yards but was hurt by penalties and turnovers. The Titans are a much better team than what the score indicated last week and this is a great bounceback spot. The Colts got their first win of the season last week and typically, teams that start 0-2 and win their third game fall flat on their faces in Game Four and that would be no surprise here. Tennessee falls into a great situation where we play on teams that are struggling on offense, averaging between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams struggling on defense, allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Half of those games covered by more than a touchdown while 18 won the game outright. Additionally, Tennessee is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. The Titans are also playing with revenge as they have dropped five straight in this series straight up and against the number. With this being one of the biggest consensus plays of the NFL weekend, it only adds to the value. 9* (257) Tennessee Titans |
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09-28-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Houston Texans -3 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 96 h 50 m | Show | |
We played against Houston last week as they lost to the Giants, suffering their first defeat of the season. We will be backing them this week as they head back home following a two-game roadtrip in what is a very good spot and a great line as well. Everyone is aware of the issues Houston had last season as it started off 2-0 only to lose its final 14 games and that troublesome season is still being attached to the Texans. We have to remember that nine of those losses were by one possession though. The defense is still the strength of this team and even though Houston is 25th in total defense, it is sixth in scoring defense and should have no issues here. The Bills opened the season 2-0 but put up a dud last week at home against San Diego. They hit the road for the second time and while the Bills won and covered in Chicago, they were outgained by 67 yards and going back, they are 4-12 in their last 16 games as road underdogs. Buffalo is just 23rd in the NFL in total offense and after putting up only 10 points last week, this is not the opponent it needs to be facing to try and get back on track. Buffalo is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after playing a game at home and even worse, it is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. Every one of those follow up losses came by double-digits and have been by an average of 24.4 ppg. While many consider both teams frauds at 2-1, the Bills are the actually fraud and we will see that here. 9* (256) Houston Texans |
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09-28-14 | Green Bay Packers -1 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 96 h 41 m | Show |
Green Bay was a big letdown for some last week as the offense could not do anything against a banged up Detroit secondary. The Packers are now 1-2 and have yet to cover a number this season so we are in good position in backing them here. Let's not forget Green Bay started both 2012 and 2013 1-2 and managed to even the record up in its fourth game and I am certainly expecting the same result here as they face an even worse defense. Of course the media is saying that the Packers are done based on the first three weeks of the season but this is the game they break out. We won with Chicago on Monday night and it was pretty fortunate to be honest as the Bears were outgained by 157 yards, the second straight game they were outyarded badly but managed to win. They benefitted from a turnover advantage but when you allow Geno Smith to throw for 316 yards, you know something isn't right. Overshadowed in the loss to the Lions was that the defense did a great job in holding Detroit to 353 total yards. The Packers defense is looking to hold the opposing quarterback to a passer rating below 65.0 for the third game in a row (NYJ-Geno Smith, 64.1 / DET-Matthew Stafford, 61.6). The Packers have won four straight games at Soldier Field and five of the last six at the stadium. Green Bay has held Chicago to 20 points or less in six of the last seven games at Soldier Field. Chicago is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 home games while going 5-22 ATS in its last 27 games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. 10* (253) Green Bay Packers |
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09-22-14 | Chicago Bears +2.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 27-19 | Win | 102 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Typically, this could be a great situation going against the Bears after their come from behind win over the 49ers last Sunday night. However, I feel that they will use that as momentum going into this game Monday night and look to get over .500. Chicago lost on opening Sunday against the Bills and that is contributing with this play as an undefeated team coming in here would be a totally different situation. With a game against Green Bay next Sunday, the Bears could be staring at 1-3 should they walk out of here with a defeat. The Jets blew a 21-3 lead over Green Bay last week and that is a tough loss to recover from. They won their home opener against Oakland two weeks ago and while they outgained the Raiders by 244 total yards, it is hard not to overlook the fact they won by just five points. The Jets are playing the kind of football they prefer and that is winning at the line of scrimmage. They lead the NFL in rushing offense and rushing defense, becoming the first team since the 2007 Minnesota Vikings to lead those categories in the same week so let's face it, we are only through two weeks of the season. On the other side, the Bears have not taken control of the line of scrimmage as they are looking for a vertical game and with this matchup, they should have huge success. The Jets secondary was torched for 346 yards by Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler can be just as dangerous with Brandon Marshall and Ashton Jeffery as his main targets. Not only is the Jets secondary battered up but they cannot matchup size wise. Chicago falls into a great situation as we play against home favorites that allowed 24 or more ppg last season, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (479) Chicago Bears |
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09-21-14 | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -125 | 80 h 53 m | Show |
This is a big game for San Francisco as it looks to avoid a 1-2 start. The 49ers started 1-2 last year and while they finished strong, four regular season losses were too much to avoid having all of their playoff games on the road. Falling to 1-2 again could conceivably put them in the same spot based on the strength of the upcoming schedule. Arizona is 2-0 to open the season but after watching the games, the Cardinals could easily be 0-2 or at the very least 1-1. the comeback against the Chargers was fortunate and last week, those same good fortunes came from the referees. This is the classic example of how turnovers can affect outcomes of games. For the 49ers, they were outgained by 63 total yards against the Cowboys but won comfortably thanks to a 4-0 turnover edge. Last week against the Bears, they outgained Chicago by 145 total yards yet lost no thanks to losing the turnover battle 4-0. As for Arizona, it was outgained by the Giants last week by 75 yards but won by 11 points thanks to a 4-0 edge in turnovers. While turnovers are nearly possible to predict, the fact that three of the four games involving these two teams have had turnover margins of +/-4 is rare. And as long as the 49ers are not on the wrong end like last week, they take this one comfortably. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers are 5-1 straight up and ATS when coming off a loss as a favorite and those five straight up wins have come by a combined score of 129-33. I certainly do not like laying points on the road but this is a sensational spot and San Francisco is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games away from home as a favorite. 10* (471) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-21-14 | Tennessee Titans +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 7-33 | Loss | -121 | 77 h 57 m | Show | |
We played against Tennessee last week and won as it was a combination of the Titans going to Kansas City on opening week and shredding the Chiefs while the Cowboys were embarrassed as home against the 49ers. This week, we have a very similar scenario but now it is in favor of Tennessee which I feel is significantly undervalued here despite being ranked low in my power ratings. Those are based on raw numbers at this point in the season so they are skewed somewhat until we can get a better read and more data. Nonetheless, I am very high on this team as Tennessee has a chance to be a sleeper team in the AFC as it has a lot of talent and brings in a new head coach in Ken Whisenhunt. Six of the Titans nine losses last year were by one possession including three by a field goal or less. Quarterback Jake Locker has picked up the new system very well and after missing some time last season, he could be a big improvement this yea and so far he has been decent. The Bengals are 2-0 and now own a 10-game home winning streak during the regular season while covering all 10 of those games as well. Who do you think the public is on and how do the linesmakers adjust that? You are seeing it right here. All streaks come to an end and this is a great time for it to happen it what could be a lookahead for Cincinnati to its bye week next week. Despite being ranked eighth in total defense and scoring defense, the Titans were not happy with their defensive effort last week so expect a big effort this week and one that made big plays against the Chiefs two weeks ago. 9* (461) Tennessee Titans |
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09-21-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7 | 44-17 | Loss | -111 | 77 h 57 m | Show | |
The Jaguars return home for the first time this season after opening up on the road against two NFC East teams. Many thought that Jacksonville could come out strong after closing last season on a 4-4 run and after jumping ahead of the Eagles 17-0 at halftime on opening Sunday, things were possibly looking that way. But they crumbled and since then over the last six quarters, Jacksonville has been outscored 75-10 and has looked every bit as bad in doing so. But we are backing the Jaguars here for their home opener not only because of the contrarian aspect of the last two games and the hope opener aspect but because of the opposition. Indianapolis is a good team but it proved last week that it is not ready for the big stage as it fell to 0-2 in a game it should have won. While Andrew Luck is a great quarterback and will only get better, the Colts are not that great of a team, especially on defense, and they have no business laying this type of chalk on the road. Indianapolis ranked 30th in points allowed and 28th in total offense and while that has come against two high-powered offenses, Jacksonville has the ability to move the ball on Sunday. Home underdogs in the NFL have always been a great proposition and the Jaguars are 11-4 ATS coming off a 2-game roadtrip making the number that much more inviting. Jacksonville falls into a great situation based on public perception from last season as we play on underdogs or pickems that won only 25 percent to 40 percent of their games last season, in conference games. This situation is 35-10 (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs playing a team off a loss as a favorite. 9* (468) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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09-21-14 | Houston Texans v. NY Giants +2.5 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 77 h 58 m | Show |
Rarely are there must win games this early in a season but this one qualifies for the Giants. They are 0-2 and it has been an ugly 0-2 as they were thumped in Detroit on Monday night and then were defeated at home against Arizona last week. People can talk as much as they want about how bad the offensive transition has been but it has gotten better as each quarter has progressed. Not many teams are going to avoid a 0-2 starts for the season when they are -6 in turnover margin and that is the case for New York. After starting last season 2-0, Houston went on to lose its final 14 games and here it is again with another 2-0 start. The Texans won't be going through another 14-game losing streak this year but I think they are being overvalued in this spot with their first two games coming against the Redskins and Raiders. Unlike the Giants, Houston has benefitted from a positive turnover margin as it is sitting at +5 through two games so the fact there is a turnover differential of 11 between these two teams explains the opposite records we are seeing. Then Texans have totally taken advantage of the turnover situation as they have been outgained in both games thus far despite double-digit winning margins in each. The Giants are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home and are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Meanwhile Houston has not been good in these spots as it is 0-10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against NFC opponents with a .400 or worse winning percentage. New York faces three division opponents in the next four game after this making this an even bigger priority. 10* (458) New York Giants |
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09-21-14 | Washington Redskins +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 77 h 48 m | Show | |
Washington burned us last week against Jacksonville and a big reason for that was the emergence of Kirk Cousins at quarterback for the Redskins. After RGIII left the game, Cousins came in and did a great job in leading the offense while the defense could do no wrong against the Jaguars. That victory snapped a nine-game losing streak for Washington and it could not have come at a better time prior to back-to-back divisional games followed by a visit from Seattle. The win did little to put faith in them according to the linesmakers which have made them hefty dogs in this divisional game. The Eagles were able to come from behind once again to pick up a victory to move to 2-0 and it was another impressive one. After coming back from a 17-point second half deficit against the Jaguars in Week One, Philadelphia came back from a 14-point second half deficit against the Colts on Monday night. Those two efforts were outstanding, with a little help from the refs in the second one, but that now puts the Eagles in a very tough spot because of the overadjusted line because of the two wins and the fact it is playing on a short week. Despite being 2-0, Philadelphia has held the lead in those games a total of six offensive snaps. Meanwhile, Washington's offense had gone nine games without scoring 30 or more points before last week and they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Additionally, Washington is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 divisional road games against winning teams. We play on home favorites with a scoring defense last season that allowed 24 or more ppg, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1983. 9* (455) Washington Redskins |
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09-18-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 48 m | Show |
This line is going exactly where we thought so holding off was the right move and holding off even longer should pay off. This line opened at 5.5 and it is now up to -7 in some spots and going past that would not be surprising. The Falcons are coming off an abysmal game last week at Cincinnati and many will be backing them here looking for a big bounceback at home. I am not one of those as the Falcons continue to be overrated and because of that, they continue to be overpriced. The offense is full of weapons no doubt but the defense is bad and Tampa Bay should have success moving the ball. We have not seen the Buccaneers do much on offense but they have faced two of the stronger defensive lines in all of football and now will be facing one of the weakest. Atlanta gave up 139 yards rushing to New Orleans and 170 yards rushing to the Bengals and overall the Falcons are ranked dead last in total defense, 31st in passing defense and 26th in rushing defense. Tampa Bay isn't going to scare many people with this offense but like last year, this is a perfect opponent. The Buccaneers surpassed 300 yards only five times and two times came against the Falcons including their highest output of the year. Tampa Bay can take advantage this year as it is averaging 5.5 ypc, third best in the league. We have seen the home team win and cover the first two Thursday night games this season and there is the theory that many go by where as to take the home team but the host is just 9-8 ATS on Thursday night going back to the start of last season. 10* (301) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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09-15-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -112 | 104 h 26 m | Show |
The Colts backdoored us last week as they scored twice in the final eight minutes to cover the number against Denver. They now head home where they definitely need a victory to avoid going 0-2 and I am very confident they will even up their record. Indianapolis was able to outgain the Broncos last Sunday night by 47 yards which has been a rarity over the last couple years as it has typically been on the wrong side of the stat sheet. One thing we do know is that the Colts have been the best bounce back team in the NFL over the last two years and it happens to coincide with the arrival of Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is a perfect 10-0 straight up and against the number following a loss during the regular season over those two years. While the winning margin was only 4.8 ppg in 2012, it rose to 11.8 ppg last season. The Eagles spotted Jacksonville a 17-0 lead at halftime as turnovers along with an offense that could not get going and they looked to be in serious danger. However the second half was all Philadelphia as it outscored the Jaguars 34-0 to win its season opener for the fourth straight season. The Eagles were an excellent road team last season, going 6-2 overall but it defeated only one team that went to the playoffs and that was Green Bay who was playing without Aaron Rodgers so even that win can be thrown out. They will be going into a very tough environment on Monday and justifiably so as this is the first Monday night home game for Indianapolis since Luck came aboard so the Colts will have a big home field edge. Indianapolis is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 home games where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 while going 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after allowing 30 points or more last game. 10* (280) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-14-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Diego Chargers +6 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 77 h 11 m | Show |
Seattle has a very big scheduling advantage in this game as it opened its season last Thursday so it will have had 10 days to prepare for this game while the Chargers are coming off a Monday night game. Normally, that needs to be taken into account but because of the venue switches and the outcomes from last week, it is not as significant. The Seahawks proved that they are again the team to beat as they took care of Green Bay by 20 points while outgaining the Packers by 143 yards. That game was at home however where Seattle is 18-1 over its last 19 games and on the road over that same stretch, it is 9-8 so clearly it is a different team away from CenturyLink Field. But the Seahawks are favored for a reason and favored big yet the public is still all over them as they are the second biggest betting consensus of the weekend. The Chargers had the game against Arizona in their grasp yet failed to hold on as they allowed two fourth quarter touchdowns to lose by a point. While they are not in the same class as Seattle, not many are, they are in the situation to keep up. Coming back to San Diego for the home opener against the Super Bowl champions is big enough but you have to also take into consideration that the Seahawks have a date with Denver on tap next week. The Chargers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and they fall into a great contrarian situation as we play against road teams after scoring 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 80-41 ATS (66.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (270) San Diego Chargers |
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09-14-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7 v. Washington Redskins | 10-41 | Loss | -140 | 74 h 16 m | Show | |
Does Washington deserve to be laying close to a touchdown to anyone? The Redskins have lost nine straight regular season games yet they come in as a pretty big favorite which is based on name alone. Going back to last season, Washington has been an underdog in eight straight games and you have to go all the way back to 2001 to find it favored by more than four points which shows how inflated this line actually is. Jacksonville blew a golden opportunity last week as it led the Eagles 17-0 but was unable to generate anything in the second half. The Jaguars will be facing a much worse defense this week even though it looked pretty decent last week against Houston. Washington was able to muster up only six points last week against Houston and while the Jaguars are considered a very bad team, their defense is very underrated and are in a favorable matchup here. There are theories that teams playing on the road coming off a road loss are never a good bet presumably because they think the same occurrence will take place. It is quite the contrary however especially if the home team is also coming off a loss on the highway. The Jaguars fall into a great situation based on this as we play against home favorites that are coming off a road loss going up against an opponent off a road loss by 14 points or more. This situation is 90-44 ATS (67.2 percent) since 1983. The numbers are even stronger when we are dealing with a non-divisional game. Additionally, the Redskins are 0-9 ATS in their last nine home games against .250 or worse opponents. 9* (255) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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09-14-14 | Dallas Cowboys +3.5 v. Tennessee Titans | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 74 h 16 m | Show | |
Tennessee went into Kansas City last Sunday and dominated the Chiefs as it won by 13 points and outgained them by 160 total yards. This comes as a surprise to some but it really wasn't as the Chiefs struggled down the stretch last season after their 9-0 start was largely done by smoke and mirrors. Taking nothing away from the Titans, but they are not as good as it may have looked last week but that score coupled with Dallas looking inept against the 49ers has this line inflated. The Cowboys fell behind early and could not recover against San Francisco but they were facing a Super Bowl contender and now they take a big step down in competition. The Tennessee defense played great against Kansas City but Dallas brings in a much more high powered offense and Tony Romo is a quarterback that bounces back from poor games. Since 2011, he has posted quarterback ratings in the 60's or worse five times and has come back with ratings of 112.2, 106, 97.1, 109.3 and 102.9 so we should expect the same here and quite frankly, playing away from home can only help. Dallas is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half while going a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games as non-conference underdogs. Tennessee meanwhile is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games coming off a double-digit ATS win and 0-7 ATS in its last seven games with a total of 49.5 or higher. While a must win can be taken out of context this early in the season, teams that start 0-2 rarely make the playoffs which makes this a huge game for the Cowboys. 9* (257) Dallas Cowboys |
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09-14-14 | New England Patriots -6 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 74 h 17 m | Show |
We played against the Patriots last week and after getting outscored 23-0 in the second half against Miami, they fell to 0-1 for the first time since 2003. They rebounded the following week then on the road at Philadelphia and I expect the same again this year. New England is still an elite team even though it looked far from it last week and it has been one of the best, it not the best, bounce back teams in the NFL over the last decade. Since the year they lost that season opener, the Patriots have dropped consecutive games during the regular season only four times and have gone 33-4 in their 37 games following a regular season loss. That is pretty impressive and you can give the credit to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady for those rebound efforts. Brady is 24-9 ATS following a loss while under Belichick, the Patriots are 11-2 ATS in road games following a road loss and 11-3 ATS off a divisional loss as a favorite. Minnesota took care of St. Louis last week as the Vikings took advantage of the quarterback situation for the Rams. Despite the 28-point win, Minnesota only outgained the Rams by 28 yards as it won the turnover battle 2-0 and benefitted from the Rams committing 13 penalties for 121 yards. They will not be handed that sort of advantage this week and despite being a solid home underdog over the years, this is not the spot for that success to go on. The defense allowed only 318 yards against St. Louis but they were able to crowd the box and try and let Shaun Hill and Austin Davis beat them,. They cannot do that with Brady. 10* (261) New England Patriots |
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09-08-14 | San Diego Chargers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
Home field advantage meant little yesterday as the host was just 4-9 ATS in the 13 games, winning only seven of 13 games outright. Many will be jumping on the home side on Monday to try and get some of that back but this is not the day to chase that as Monday night road teams have been cash cows on opening weekend as they are on a 12-4 ATS run since 2006 and while the matchups can dictate some of the success, it is clear that home teams are overvalued Monday night especially early in the season. 10 of those 16 games were won outright by the road team. While the road team is getting points here, I don't know if the Chargers necessarily should be. San Diego is coming off a 9-7 season and made the playoffs for the first time since 2009 and won their first playoff game since 2008. The Chargers should be even better this season after winning the yardage battle is 11 of 16 regular season games. According to reports, the Chargers offense is clicking under new OC Frank Reich so they could be a dangerous sleeper if the defense improves. The Chargers addressed the team's two most glaring needs heading into the offseason by upgrading the talent at cornerback and edge rusher. Arizona went 10-6 last season but failed to make the playoffs and I don't see it getting any better this season. The defense was the strength a season ago but the Cardinals will be without the team's best defensive player in Daryl Washington (suspension), along with defensive tackle Darnell Dockett (ACL injury) and perhaps Tyrann Mathieu. Additionally, Cardinals running back Andre Ellington is expected to miss the game, which is a huge blow because so much of this offense is designed around his abilities. San Diego was 5-1-1 ATS last season as a road underdog and is 9-3-1 ATS in that role the last two seasons. Look for the Chargers to have too much on both sides of the ball with so many key players out for Arizona. 10* (491) San Diego Chargers |
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09-08-14 | NY Giants +6.5 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Home field advantage meant little yesterday as the host was just 4-9 ATS in the 13 games, winning only seven of 13 games outright. Many will be jumping on the home side on Monday to try and get some of that back but this is not the day to chase that as Monday night road teams have been cash cows on opening weekend as they are on a 12-4 ATS run since 2006 and while the matchups can dictate some of the success, it is clear that home teams are overvalued Monday night especially early in the season. 10 of those 16 games were won outright by the road team. The Giants are coming off a disappointing season so a quick start is could be the answer. After missing the playoffs the last two years, the schedule is on the side of New York as a win here could lead to a 5-0 start prior to back-to-back road games at Philadelphia and Dallas. The offense was ugly last season as the Giants managed a mere 18.4 ppg and they were outgained in 10 of 16 games. A new system has been put in place in order for Eli Manning to get rid of the ball quicker and help avoid a repeat where he was sacked 39 times and had the worse passer rating of his career. Even though we didn't see it in the preseason, I expect it to improve. Detroit closed on a four-game losing streak and while I do think they will be a better team this season, the Lions are laying too many points here. They have a wealth of offensive weapons and have Jim Caldwell as the new boss, but they have been chirping about being Super Bowl contenders and that is a little farfetched at this point. They have a tough matchup as only four of 16 opponents managed to outgain their average passer rating against the Giants last season and overall, they ranked sixth in passer rating allowed. The Lions are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games while the Giants have covered four of their last five road games. 10* (489) New York Giants |
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09-07-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -100 | 81 h 17 m | Show | |
After getting absolutely embarrassed in the Super Bowl last season, the Broncos will be on a mission and it starts Week One. Denver was the best team in the NFL for the better part of last season as their three regular season losses were by a touchdown or less until the debacle in February against the Seahawks. After opening the season a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the number, the Broncos went to Indianapolis and suffered their first loss to the Colts despite easily winning the yardage battle. It is safe to say Denver wants revenge against Peyton Manning's former employer. The Colts made it back to the playoffs for a second straight season behind Andrew Luck and after an incredible comeback at home against the Chiefs, they were destroyed in New England to end their season. The schedule maker did them no favors to open this season as they are in a very tough spot opening night. Despite a 23-12 record the last two years, Indianapolis has actually been outscored over that stretch 834-824 showing when it wins, it wins small but when it loses, it loses big. 10 of those 12 losses have been by double-digits including six by 20 or more points. One huge matchup factor is that the Colts offensive line is in shambles and the Broncos should be all over Luck most of the night. The Broncos fall into a great situation as we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning record last season. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Broncos are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points. 9* (488) Denver Broncos |
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09-07-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 12 m | Show |
Tampa Bay has not been to the playoffs since 2007 but there is a real possibility that could change this season. The Buccaneers started 0-8 last season which cost head coach Greg Schiano his job and they went out and brought in Lovie Smith which I feel was the best hire in the offseason. He was great in Chicago but was fired despite a 10-6 record in his final season so he brings in a winning attitude right from the start. Tampa Bay has an easy schedule and is a sleeper pick to win the division just like Carolina was a season ago. The Panthers went from three straight losing seasons to winning the NFC South thanks to an 11-1 run that vaulted them into the playoffs. They did make an early exit in the playoffs and this division has notoriously been up for grabs every season as there has not been a repeat champion ever. Carolina has the second ranked scoring defense in the NFL last season and it will be stout once again but there are questions on the offense. The offensive line is a mess and quarterback Cam Newton is not healthy. Newton will be wearing a flak jacket to protect a hairline rib fracture. Leaving during the offseason were Steve Smith Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn Jr., leaving Newton with a host of new receivers including veterans Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant so the offense is a big question right now. The Buccaneers defense will be better even though it wasn't horrible last season as along with the defensive minded Smith, Leslie Frazier takes over as defensive coordinator. The Panthers have failed to cover five straight season openers and the favorite is 6-1 ATS over the last seven meetings. 10* (484) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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09-07-14 | New England Patriots v. Miami Dolphins +5.5 | 20-33 | Win | 100 | 74 h 47 m | Show | |
The Patriots are once again heavy favorites to win the AFC East and despite the incredible success of this team, it is hard to believe that they have not won a Super Bowl since 2004. The talent is no doubt in place to get there again but this is a tough spot on opening week. New England has been an average road team over the years and last season alone, it was just 2-7 ATS on the highway including going 1-4 ATS as a road favorite. Miami has been very average for the last five years since last making the playoffs back in 2008. The Dolphins are coming off an 8-8 season but the pieces are in place to make an improvement this year. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is in his third season and has a new offensive coordinator in Bill Lazor who came over from Philadelphia and that is a big edge as the Patriots should have trouble in how to prepare for the new look offense. The Dolphins are expecting big things out of Tannehill under Lazor, and they could have some creative packages waiting to surprise the Patriots on Sunday. This is an overadjusted line considering the Patriots were actually underdogs here back on December 15th and now we are seeing a line differential of over a touchdown and there is no way New England has gotten that much better or that Miami has gotten that much worse to deserve a move like this. The Patriots had won seven straight meetings prior to last season when the Dolphins won the aforementioned game so they can build off the confidence of that one. Miami is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog the last two seasons and the home team has covered four straight in this series. 9* (482) Miami Dolphins |
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09-07-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 74 h 48 m | Show |
There are three home underdogs on Sunday and I feel this one is the best of the bunch. As said before, Week One of the regular season can be a tricky one for both bettors and linesmakers as setting the lines is tough with the main parameters based on last season's performances and this year's expectations. Two years ago, the Falcons hosted the NFC Championship. Last year, the wheels fell off and Atlanta went 4-12. After taking such a hard fall in 2013, I expect the Falcons to bounce back and while they may not be as good as two years ago, they won't be as bad as last season. Injuries played a big role in their regression but Atlanta was still competitive as of those 12 losses, seven were by a touchdown or less including five by four points or less. New Orleans meanwhile bounced back from a 7-9 season in 2012 without Sean Payton to a 12-6 record last season that again included a trip to the playoffs. Expectations are high once again for the Saints and they do have a schedule that sets up pretty well for success. They are a different team on the road however as they went 3-5 on the highway compared to 8-0 at home last season and they were a bust as a road chalk, going 0-4 ATS in that role. The home team has covered five straight meetings in this series and under head coach Mike Smith, the Falcons are 7-0 ATS at home during the first two weeks of the season. Atlanta falls into a great contrarian situation based on last season as we play on underdogs or pickems who won only 25 percent to 40 percent of their games last season. This situation is 41-12 ATS (77.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (464) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-07-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens -1 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 48 m | Show |
After five straight seasons of making it to the playoffs including a Super Bowl win in 2012, the Ravens went just 8-8 last season and failed to make the postseason. Disappointing seasons from quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice contributed to that and even a little better output for them would have gotten them to the postseason considering five losses came by five points or less including four by a field goal or less. While Rice will not be in action as he is serving a two-game suspension, we are catching a great number here in the opening game. The Bengals are the slight favorites to repeat as AFC North champions following an 11-5 season a year ago. They could not get out of the first round of the playoffs for the third straight season though but they again will be right in the mix. Cincinnati was undefeated at home during the regular season but went just 3-5 on the road with just one of those wins coming against a team with a .500 or better record. The Bengals have dropped their season openers in five of the last seven years including the last two, going 1-4-1 ATS in that stretch. Baltimore meanwhile has won five of its last six openers with the one loss coming last year in Denver in a big revenge game for the Broncos following the playoff loss from the previous season. Baltimore has a great home field edge, going 39-9 during the regular season under Jim Harbaugh. The Ravens are 16-7 ATS L23 as a home favorite of 7 points or less in the Harbaugh era. The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings and has covered four straight in this series. 10* (474) Baltimore Ravens |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -5.5 | Top | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
Going back a few years, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers including Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. That changed in 2012 when the Giants lost at home against Dallas and continued last season when Baltimore had to go on the road to Denver because of a conflict with the Orioles and got thumped. This year, the past Super Bowl Champion gets to host again as Seattle opens the season at home and this is a good spot for the defending champ to open the season with a victory and improve to 12-2 in season openers the last 14 years. The Seahawks home field edge is the best in football as they have won 17 of their last 18 home games, losing last year to Arizona as Russell Wilson had one of his worst starts in his young career. Green Bay looks to start the season strong following a poor season last year that was directly related to Aaron Rodgers being out for a portion of the season. The Packers should be able to get back into the elite club of the NFL but this is not the place to start as this is a bad spot and a bad matchup. The defense struggles against quarterbacks that move and while the Packers offense is one of the best, these are the defenses they struggle against the most. Going back, Seattle is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 home games while going a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last sox home games as a favorite of a touchdown or less. Under Pete Carroll, Seattle is 25-10 ATS in its 35 home games. Green Bay is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. 10* (462) Seattle Seahawks |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 122 h 2 m | Show |
I will be using some of the same analysis from the other play as it pertains here as well. While the Denver offense has been the best in the NFL this season, Seattle has the ingredients to slow it down, not necessarily stop it but that isn't imperative. The Seahawks offense has not looked it best of late but it will be facing a Broncos defense that has been playing over its head the last four games by allowing no more than 17 points the last four games. They had allowed 17 points or less only once in their previous 14 games and the Seahawks are ranked eighth in the league in points scored so they will get their production in what I feel is a very good matchup. Defense is the key when it comes to the big game. This is just the fifth Super Bowl since the AFL-NFL merger to match up the No. 1 scoring offense against the No. 1 scoring defense. It's been advantage defense with those teams going 4-1 in past Super Bowls. Additionally, this is the 16th time that the defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFL has made the Super Bowl since the merger. The previous 15 teams went 12-3 in those Super Bowls. As mentioned, I don't think Seattle can stop the Broncos offense, despite the top ranked overall and scoring defense in the NFL but I do think the Seahawks can certainly slow them down with the best secondary in football. They were first in yards allowed, first in interceptions and first in yards per attempt. Any sort of pass rush will get Peyton Manning flustered enough which will lead to mistakes or lack of production at the very least. Seattle is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a winning record including a perfect 6-0 ATS record when the opposition has a winning percentage of .750 or better. Additionally, the Seahawks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine game when getting points. Looking at power rankings alone and Seattle is the better team that has played a tougher schedule to get here, including the playoffs. I was hoping to get a better line with the public lining up behind Denver and while that still may happen, we will pull the trigger now on the Seahawks getting points of any kind as they should be the team that is favored on Sunday. 10* (101) Seattle Seahawks
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -101 | 151 h 12 m | Show |
After the first meeting in Seattle this season, won by the Seahawks by 26 points, many are expecting a similar outcome in the NFC Championship. Not here. The 49ers are a much different team this time around and in that first meeting in Seattle, they were without a few players, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis for the second half, that are now back in the lineup. While there may be some who think that San Francisco playing for a third straight week in the playoffs is at a disadvantage but that is not the case. The 49ers momentum is off the charts right now plus the past three Super Bowl champions have had to play three straight playoff games so there is hardly a disadvantage. San Francisco is the only team entering the conference championships that didn't have a first-round bye and has had to play on the road. With eight straight wins including the last three all on the road, it is far from a big deal. We all know Seattle has the best home field advantage in the NFL and while it is coming off a seemingly easy victory over the Saints, what is hidden is the fact that the Seahawks allowed 409 total yards and were outgained by 132 yards. That is not good news facing a 49ers offense that is moving the ball with great precision right now. On the other side, the 49ers are ranked fifth in the NFL in total defense and third in scoring defense and they have allowed only 15.2 ppg in its past 11 games. San Francisco manhandled Carolina's offense in seven goal-to-go situations in the first half, preventing them from scoring a short touchdown with two great goal-line stands. There are still many 3.5's out there and that is the number to get on as a game decided by a field goal either way is what we are expecting here. San Francisco is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better while going 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (303) San Francisco 49ers
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01-19-14 | New England Patriots +5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 16-26 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 52 m | Show |
Denver opened as high as -7 in some spots and that number came down almost immediately as the early money hammered New England. While we are not getting the same big number here, we are still getting a very strong number as the overvaluation of the Broncos continues. Denver outgained San Diego by 104 totals yards and despite a 24-7 lead, it was unable to hold onto the cover as the Chargers suck in the backdoor. Taking nothing away from San Diego, but when comparing lines, the Chargers are not only three points worse than New England which is what the numbers are telling us. The Broncos and Patriots are very evenly matched as their one-game record difference justifies but the Broncos are still getting too much credit here. The home/road splits are having an effect on that but when looking at New England's four road losses, three were by four points or less while the other one was by seven points in a torrential rainstorm in Cincinnati. A big advantage is that for the Patriots, they are as healthy and as deep as they have been all season in the secondary, which is ideal. The matchup between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning is epic in itself and while both have been incredible throughout their careers, we have to give an edge to Brady as he has won 10 of the previous 14 matchups between the two including a 2-1 edge in the playoffs. While past history can mean little, the fact that he has Bill Belichick with him on the sidelines is huge in the postseason. While the Patriots postseason ATS numbers have been average of late, they are usually favored and they have won 17 of 25 games with Brady at quarterback. New England is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams averaging 375 or more ypg while going 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 29 or more ppg. The Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in January. 10* (301) New England Patriots
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers +10 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 147 h 42 m | Show |
We won with San Diego on Sunday as it went on the road and took care of the Bengals with relative ease. Many will be bucking the Chargers this week as they feel they cannot manage another strong game for a second straight week, especially against the high powered Broncos. I may be in the minority but I think the Chargers can in fact do it again and they certainly are not intimidated by playing in Denver as they have already won here, handing the Broncos their lone home loss of the season. Sure, Denver will be out for revenge but that does not mean San Diego will be any less motivated this time around. The Broncos were in a similar position last year as heavy home favorites but they ended up losing to Baltimore in overtime in a game that they never covered. That will have no impact here whatsoever as Denver cannot be expected to pick it up a notch to avoid a similar outcome. It comes down to matchups and the Chargers do in fact match up very well with Denver. And a lot of that is due to the familiarity of head coach Mike McCoy with the Broncos. The Denver offense has run fewer than 65 plays in two games this season, both against McCoy's Chargers and that is no coincidence. The Chargers beat the Broncos, in large part, by shutting down their offense. At times it looked as if McCoy knew their offensive plays as well as they did. In two games against McCoy's game plan, the Broncos averaged 24 ppg, two touchdowns below their season average. Quarterback Philip Rivers says that this is his favorite road venue to play at and he has quietly put together one of his best seasons ever and I expect that to continue against the banged up and below average Broncos defense. San Diego falls into a solid situation as we p[lay against home favorites that are revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* San Diego Chargers
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01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 22-43 | Win | 100 | 126 h 28 m | Show |
We were on the Colts last week as they were able to overcome a 38-10 deficit and put out the miraculous victory in the second greatest playoff comeback of all time. While it may be hard to imagine a letdown effect in the playoffs, Indianapolis could very well see some of that this week. As mentioned last week, the Colts are playing arguably their best football of the season, this is the toughest task of this current stretch. Indianapolis has won four straight games but it has outgained opponents by only an average of only 56 ypg and three of those games were at home. The Colts are 5-3 on the road but one of those wins came against Jacksonville while two others came by three points against non-playoff teams Tennessee and Houston. Yes, there were impressive wins over San Francisco and Kansas City, but neither of those teams were playing with extra rest like New England is. The Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a bye including easy wins the last two years in the Divisional round against teams coming off home wins. New England is 8-0 at home this season, covering six of those games including a perfect 6-0 ATS when the line is less than 9.5 points. This is where Tom Brady shines and he could have a field day Saturday night. The Indianapolis defense struggled to stop the Chiefs Sunday, particularly through the air, making it seem as though there could be some holes there for New England to exploit. And with a solid running game, the balanced attack will be too much for the Colts. Here, we play against road teams that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 53-21 ATS (71.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a double-digit divisional win and they are 28-14 ATS in their last 42 home games in December and January. The Colts meanwhile are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (114) New England Patriots
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01-11-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks -7.5 | Top | 15-23 | Win | 100 | 123 h 38 m | Show |
Last season, every favorite covered in the opening round of the playoffs but this year, the Wildcard round was an underdog bettors dream as all four underdogs covered the closing lines so late bettors were able to cash all four tickets. We were on every one of those dogs but we will be switching it up in the first game on Saturday and backing the Seahawks. Seattle had an opening round bye which has been a big benefit the last two years as teams with a bye have gone 6-2 in the Divisional round and Seattle knows all about this as it was taken out by Atlanta last season following a road win. Now the Seahawks are on the opposite side of things as they now host a team coming off a road win. The Saints won their first ever playoff road game at Philadelphia but the Eagles did not possess the same home field edge that the Seahawks have. They are 7-1 at home and one of those wins was a complete domination of New Orleans as they held the Saints to just 188 total yards. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson had one of his best games of the season, completing 22 of 30 passes for 310 yards and three touchdowns. I do not think they will dominate as much this time around but they should walk out with a comfortable win on Saturday. The Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record while the Seahawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. They also have a great situation on their side as we play on teams in the second half of the season that are allowing between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Look for New Orleans to put up a better fight but the Seahawks pull away late for another comfortable win. 10* (112) Seattle Seahawks
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Green Bay Packers +3 | Top | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 143 h 16 m | Show |
It can be argued that the Packers got pretty fortunate to make it into the playoffs thanks to their great come from behind win over the Bears thanks to a 48-yard touchdown pass in the final minute or the fluke fumble return touchdown in the first half. Still, this is a different team with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and after outgaining the Bears by 128 yards on Sunday, the Packers deserve it. Green Bay went 2-5-1 without Rodgers, counting the Chicago game where he left early and 6-2 with him so those that may complain about getting a home game against a team that is 3.5 games better, I will be the first to say the Packers deserve it. This game opened at a pick and jumped to the 49ers being favored in a matter of minutes and I will take those points any day. This is taking nothing away from the 49ers which are a very solid team as they are 12-4 and come in riding a six-game winning streak which is always important heading into the playoffs. Five of those wins came against non-playoff teams however and while the win over Seattle was big, it was at home in a big revenge spot. They won the last game in Arizona but were outgained by 107 yards and their last road game against a quality opponent was at New Orleans and despite losing by just three points, they were outgained by 191 total yards. The early forecast in Green Bay is a big edge for the Packers as it is expected to snow with temperatures in the teens. Let's not forget Green Bay lost in San Francisco opening week and it falls into a great revenge situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss by seven points or less to opponent, off a win against a division rival. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (108) Green Bay Packers
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 140 h 42 m | Show |
Let me start off by saying that the Chargers are extremely fortunate to be here as the Chiefs missed a winning field goal that would have put the Steelers into the playoffs. On top of that, the NFL acknowledged that San Diego should have been penalized for an illegal formation that would have given Kansas City another shot at a field goal. San Diego ended up winning in overtime and we have seen numerous times over the years that teams which get away with such things can ride that into the playoffs and the Chargers could be another one of those. San Diego finished the season 9-7 but it is hard to ignore the fact it won its final four games to get into the postseason including a very impressive win at Denver. The Chargers last loss was at home against Cincinnati and to be clear, this is not a play based on road revenge but it certainly doesn't hurt it being in our favor. It is no secret that the Bengals dominated at home this season going a perfect 8-0 straight up and against the number. Don't think for a second that the linesmakers do not know this and we are getting a very good line because of it. The Chargers were 10-point dogs in their last road game at Denver so this is saying that Cincinnati is just three points worse than Denver on a neutral field. I don't think so. The Bengals have a solid home field edge no doubt but I am expecting a much closer than expected game and we cannot rule out a San Diego outright victory as this is a very solid team. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after a win by three or less points. This situation is 65-32 ATS (67 percent) since 1983. 10* (105) San Diego Chargers
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01-04-14 | New Orleans Saints +2.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 123 h 48 m | Show |
At this point, most everyone knows about the Saints trouble on the road as they are 1-5 straight up and 0-6 ATS in their last six road games but something says they step it up in the playoffs starting Saturday in Philadelphia. New Orleans was dominant in its last game which was a must win against Tampa Bay and while it was not a win against a quality team, it was in fact a big win with momentum to carry over into here. Additionally, the Saints have a very good matchup against a poor Philadelphia defense that they can take advantage of. Philadelphia closed the season very strong with wins in seven of its last eight games so it clearly comes in with some positive momentum as well. The Eagles have been nothing special at home, going 4-4 and while that does include wins in their last four games, this is the biggest test to date. They are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games and they have not fared well overall against the better teams, going just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games against winning teams. New Orleans should have plenty of success on offense as the Eagles are 31st in the NFL in total defense and New Orleans is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games against defenses allowing 350 or more ypg including a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams allowing 260 or mpre passing ypg. Also, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (103) New Orleans Saints
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01-04-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Indianapolis Colts -2.5 | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 12 m | Show |
I am a firm believer of not resting starters in the final week of the regular season even if a playoff berth or a playoff seed is already locked up. While it avoids injury, it also takes away any momentum that a team may have had heading into the postseason. Kansas City rested its starters in Week 17 against the Chargers and nearly pulled off the upset and a week off for the starters probably will not affect them as it is just like a bye week. The issue here is that the Chiefs had no momentum to begin with so winning that final game could have been a big confidence boost. They opened the season 9-0 but closed by going 2-5 over their last seven games and at 9-0, many suspected they were a fraud. I still believe that. The Chiefs are 0-3 this season against teams ranked in the top ten in the NFL while the Colts are 4-2 and while that record difference is impressive enough, it shows a much tougher schedule that the Colts have played, 11th vs. 26th for Kansas City. Indianapolis won its final three games of the season including a win at Kansas City so it comes in with plenty of momentum. I am rarely an advocate of road revenge, which the Chiefs are in, and that is certainly no reason to back them here. The Colts are 6-2 at home with losses coming against Miami and St. Louis despite outgaining both. Two quality home wins came against Seattle and Denver and those teams had only three losses apiece all season long. Here, we play on home teams off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1983. The Colts get it done at home. 10* (102) Indianapolis Colts
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12-29-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys +7 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 81 h 0 m | Show |
The winner of this game takes the NFC East and as of right now, the Eagles are being handed the division based on this line and the talking heads saying Dallas has no chance. Obviously the loss of Tony Romo is huge and while he has not been completely rules out, the chances of him playing are extremely slim but Kyle Orton is a very capable backup. Taking snaps with the first team all week definitely is a plus and while everyone talks about how bad the Cowboys defense is, people fail to realize that the Eagles defense is just as bad as they are ranked 30th in the NFL in total yards allowed. The Cowboys has a legitimate shot of piling on points, Romo or not. The Eagles are coming off a blowout win which is another reason the public loves them but if anything that gives us a great opportunity to go against them. While they are 5-2 on the road, four of those wins came against teams 4-11, 4-11, 3-12 and 6-9 with the other coming against the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. Dallas is 0-4 ATS its last four games and that is a streak I love playing against. Also, we have two situations in our favor. First we play on home underdogs or pickems in the last two weeks of the regular season after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 41-17 ATS (70.7 percent) since 1983. also, we play against road favorites averaging 27 or more ppg, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. This situation is 37-15 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (316) Dallas Cowboys
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12-29-13 | Buffalo Bills v. New England Patriots -8.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 56 m | Show |
We won with the Patriots last week as they rolled in Baltimore. Normally that would signal a play against spot this week, or at the very least, a no play but that is not the case this week. New England still has a lot at stake as it needs to win to clinch a first round bye and it can still claim home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win and a Denver loss. There will be no letting up from the Patriots and even more so as they remember how they almost lost in Buffalo in Week One. The Bills put together one of their best games of the season last week as they shut out Miami and held the Dolphins to 103 total yards of offense. Don't expect that again as Buffalo has held opponents to fewer than 300 yards five other times and allowed 483, 386, 300, 423 and 354 next time out. Here we play against road teams that are coming off a double-digit win as home underdogs. This situation is 43-18 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1989. Also, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (323) New England Patriots
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12-29-13 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +13 | Top | 34-14 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 55 m | Show |
The Broncos were torching every team they played early in the season but they have not looked close to the same over the last few weeks. They are 6-3 ATS over their last nine games since losing their first game of the season at Indianapolis and while that record contradicts the first sentence, Denver has been able to pull away late in some games to grab the cover that it hasn't always deserved. The Broncos need to win this game to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs since New England losing at home to Buffalo is unlikely so they are playing for something but that doesn't always mean a cover comes along with it as these must win lines are inflated which is certainly the case here. Oakland has lost three straight games by double-digits and five straight overall so it may seem like the Raiders have quit but that is not the case. They have actually won the yardage battle in two of the five losses and the worse they have been outgained by is 79 total yards. And let's face it, this is the Denver game and Oakland would like nothing more than to play spoiler. Despite a 4-11 record, Oakland is getting outgained by less than 20 ypg and it should have no issues on offense facing a struggling and injured Broncos stop unit. We have a great contrarian situation on our side as we play against favorites after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 27-9 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (326) Oakland Raiders
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12-29-13 | NY Jets +7 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 74 h 30 m | Show |
Miami played its worst game of the season last week in Buffalo as its anemic offense could not get anything going. Now the Dolphins are in a must win situation but we cannot forget that must wins do not always translate into victories. After last week, the Dolphins are being asked to win by a touchdown which is too much to ask for, especially in a divisional game where the teams are separated by just one game in the standings. The Jets have not layed well on the road this season, going just 1-6 and while I do not typically play road revenge, I am making an exception here, at least partially. Motivation is a huge part of Week 17 in the NFL and with the Jets out of the playoffs, many will write them off here thinking the towel has been thrown in. However, the Jets were embarrassed at home against Miami in the beginning of December as they lost 23-3 and got outgained 453-177. These teams hate each other already so there is no way the Jets lay down here, especially with the fact that a win gets them to .500 for the season which is a significant accomplishment. They also fall into a solid situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (317) New York Jets
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12-23-13 | Atlanta Falcons +14.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
With the Seahawks stunning loss on Sunday, this game suddenly becomes pretty important for the 49ers. San Francisco is just a half-game ahead of Arizona in the NFC West and they have to travel there next week to face the Cardinals. That makes this a must win game for San Francisco but must wins do not always correlate into actual wins and in this case, we have seen a significant line shift from the opener as San Francisco is now over a two-touchdown favorite. The Falcons season has been done for a long time so while they could pack this one in, I expect them to not sit down and a lot of that is due to experience the other way. So far this season, the Falcons have done well in continuing to play hard despite having been eliminated from the playoffs. They are just 2-2 over their last four games but the two losses have been by just a combined five points. Last season, in a game in which they had nothing to play for, they put forth one of their worst performances of the season as they had already locked up the top seed in the NFC for the playoffs they lost to a 7-9 Tampa Bay team 22-17 at the Georgia Dome. This is a great opportunity to close the season with a big victory and hosting Carolina next week, playing the role of spoiler is the last remaining goal. I rarely play road revenge and I am not basing this one on that but there is no doubt that Atlanta players will step it up and try to make up for their home loss last season in the playoffs. Here, we play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Atlanta is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game. 10* (131) Atlanta Falcons
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12-22-13 | Chicago Bears v. Philadelphia Eagles -3 | Top | 11-54 | Win | 100 | 101 h 21 m | Show |
We played against the Eagles last week in Minnesota as they had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 48-30 loss. Philadelphia still sits atop the NFC East at 8-6, one game ahead of the Cowboys after they blew a big lead against Green Bay and lost. There is an interesting dynamic playing out here since the Eagles and Cowboys meet in the final week of the regular season next week. Should Dallas lose against Washington earlier in the day, the Eagles could clinch the division with a victory. Should the Cowboys win, this game is meaningless as far as the NFC East goes because that would make the winner of next week's game the champ. Does that mean Philadelphia sits down should Dallas win? Absolutely not and don't let the talking heads tell you otherwise. A victory over the Bears would put Philadelphia into the third seed in the NFC and that means it would avoid a trip to Seattle in the second round which is always big. Obviously, this game means a lot for the Bears as well but coming off two straight wins, I am expecting a reversal of the good fortunes here. Chicago is just 5-6 since opening the season 3-0 including going 2-4 in its last six road games. The Eagles have not been a great team at home this season, going 3-4 but they have won two straight and three of their last four and this is the last regular season home game of the year. Philadelphia is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 29 or more ppg while the Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. Additionally, we play against road teams that are coming off a win as an underdog, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 109-63 ATS (63.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (110) Philadelphia Eagles
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12-22-13 | New England Patriots +2.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 72 h 7 m | Show |
The Patriots suffered a brutal loss last week at Miami as they had a chance to win the game but Tom Brady got intercepted in the endzone in the final seconds. New England wasted a golden opportunity to take charge of the AFC after Denver lost on Thursday now it needs to take care of its own business and get some help along the way. The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win or a Miami loss and they will know the Dolphins outcome around kickoff but that will not dictate how they play out this game and they still have a chance at home field throughout the playoffs and the one thing it cannot to do to attain that is lose. New England fell to 3-4 on the road but it is in great position here to even that record up. The Ravens won in Detroit Monday night to keep the pressure on Cincinnati in the AFC North. Baltimore can actually clinch a playoff berth with a win here coupled with losses by the Dolphins and Chargers but taking care of their own part will be difficult enough. The Ravens have won four straight games but the last three have been by a combined seven points and they were outgained in all three of those on top of it. At 6-1 at home, they continue to have one of the best home fields in football but Baltimore will have trouble keeping up here. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games following a road loss and they fall into a situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 52-27 ATS (65.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Even better, Brady is 17-3 ATS in his 20 games coming off a loss when not favored by a touchdown or more. 10* (129) New England Patriots
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12-22-13 | New Orleans Saints +3.5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 39 m | Show |
I have played against the Saints in each of their last five road games and we have cashed a ticket each time as New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five games on the highway, losing four of those outright. We are bucking that trend this week however as in each of the past instances, the Saints were in horrible spots, whether it be them or their opponent being in a great spot but that is not the case this week. This is the third time this season that New Orleans is playing consecutive road games but the first two times, it won the first game so this marks the first time this season that it will be on the road following a road loss and New Orleans is 5-2 in the Sean Payton era in the second game of such a scenario. Carolina has suffered one loss in its last 10 games and that was a 31-13 defeat at New Orleans two weeks ago. This puts the Panthers in a major revenge spot and the public will be lining up behind them. Admittedly, I thought Carolina was very overrated midway through the season but it proved me wrong with impressive wins over San Francisco and New England in consecutive weeks but at this stage of the season we are simply backing the better team with the better coach in the role of an underdog. While the Saints lost by nine points last week, they outgained the Rams 432-302 as turnovers were the difference. In their four losses, the Saints are -7 in turnover margin so taking care of the ball here is key which I think they accomplish. New Orleans is 16-4 ATS under Sean Payton coming off a road loss and it falls into a great situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (103) New Orleans Saints
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12-22-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 69 h 50 m | Show |
The Bengals had a chance to get closer to a division title but they fell behind early and big to the Steelers and were unable to recover. Cincinnati had a couple late drives for touchdowns to make the game look more respectable to it was pretty much over after three quarters. Now the Bengals return home and they can clinch the AFC North division title by beating the Vikings and watching Baltimore lose or tie against the Patriots. Playing at home has been different than the road as the Bengals are 6-0 at home and outscoring opponents by 16 ppg. While next week's game against Baltimore may seem like the big one, this is the big one as far as Cincinnati is concerned as it does not want to division to come down to the final regular season game. We won with Minnesota last week as it took care of the Eagles without much of a problem. The Vikings took an early 7-0 lead and never trailed which gave them a much needed win following three straight games they could have won but ended up going 1-1-1. That victory also gave them three straight wins at home but like the Bengals, the road has not been as kind as Minnesota is 0-6-1 on the highway as has been outscored by close to eight ppg. Coming off that huge home win, I expect a big letdown this week. Minnesota is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games coming off a win by 14 or more points as a home underdog while the Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. They also fall into a great situation where we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (116) Cincinnati Bengals
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12-15-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
The Steelers were a few inches away from an improbable come-from-behind win against Miami last week and now at 5-8, it is really must win time. Winning out is now the only possibility and even at 8-8, nothing is guaranteed as Baltimore has the upper hand in the AFC as a win this week puts Pittsburgh in a tough spot but that game is not until Monday so the Steelers will be fully focused here. A divisional rivalry only adds to it as Pittsburgh will be out to make up for the 20-10 loss in Cincinnati in Week Two. The Steelers troubles have been on the road for the most part as they are 3-3 at home but 3-1 after a 0-2 start. Cincinnati has won and covered three straight games and a win this week would clinch the AFC North along with a Baltimore loss so the Bengals will not be laying down. The issue is that they are a different team on the road as they are 3-4 compared to a perfect 6-0 at home. Cincinnati lost two of those road games in overtime so the record could be better but at the same time, it also won a game in overtime and won another by three points against the Lions. We won with the Bengals in their last road game at San Diego but the Chargers were coming off a huge win Kansas City while the Bengals were coming off a bye so the situation was completely different to this week. The Steelers fall into a superb contrarian situation as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 60-29 ATS (67.4 percent) since 1983. Pittsburgh is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 10* (332) Pittsburgh Steelers
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12-15-13 | New Orleans Saints v. St. Louis Rams +6.5 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 16 m | Show | |
We won with New Orleans last Sunday night as it easily defeat Carolina to take the lead in the NFC South by a game over the Panthers. That sets up a letdown spot here for the Saints and with a game at Carolina next week, it also sets up a classic sandwich game that New Orleans could get caught looking past. Even though this game is in a dome, it is not their own dome and the Saints are much different away from home, going 3-3 compared to 7-0 at home while going just 1-5 ATS in those six roadies. Obviously, New Orleans does not want to slip up and give that game right back but coming off a big game on a short week and hitting the road is tough for any team in this league. At 5-8, the Rams are officially out of the playoff picture but this can be considered their playoff game. Playing their old rival always gets them fired up and a chance to play spoiler is exactly what they are striving for. St. Louis is coming off two straight road games and both were pretty ugly as it lost in San Francisco by and Arizona by double-digits. That actually puts them into a great situation explained later and a return home only helps. The Rams have been very solid at home with a 3-3 record and two of those losses could have been wins as a loss against Tennessee came after a late turnover and they had a chance to score late against the Seahawks but fell just short. Motivation is huge this time of year and this defense has a lot of it after two straight poor efforts. These teams met here two years ago, which came after two straight road games for the Rams, and St. Louis took that game outright as a home underdog as well. The Rams have a solid contrarian situation going for them as we play against favorites after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 26-9 ATS (74.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams outscoring opponents by six or more ppg on the season. 9* (312) St. Louis Rams
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12-15-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +5.5 | 56-31 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 55 m | Show | |
The Chiefs are coming off a blowout win at Washington last week and while we lost with the Redskins in that one, we are going against Kansas City again this week and Denver's victory pretty much solidified the fifth seed for the Chiefs. The victory snapped a three-game skid for Kansas City which improved to 5-1 on the road but I still feel this is a team that is vastly overrated. They have been outgained in five of their last six games and overall, they are getting outgained by close to 20 ypg despite having a 10-3 record. The difference is turnovers as they have lost the turnover battle only twice and that is obviously a huge difference in winning and losing. In the first meeting between Kansas City and Oakland, the Raiders outgained the Chiefs by 58 total yards but turnovers were the difference there so we are banking on a reversal of the miscues here. The Raiders have lost three straight games including the last two on the road and they are coming off a stretch of four road games over their last five. Oakland is 3-3 at home but it could be better as games against Washington and Tennessee could have gone either way. The playoffs are no longer a possibility for the Raiders but this is a big rivalry so you know they will be playing with 100 percent effort here. We have two situations backing Oakland as first, we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half going up against an opponent after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 29-10 ATS (74.4 percent) since 1983. 9* (328) Oakland Raiders
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12-15-13 | Washington Redskins +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 72 h 53 m | Show | |
The Redskins are officially done for the season but don't expect them to be throwing in the towel. With Mike Shanahan likely out as the head coach, the players have a lot to play for going forward and the change at quarterback is only going to help. Robert Griffin III has been benched as he is clearly not 100 percent and it is a smart move so he does not risk further injury. Kirk Cousins takes over as the starter and he is more than capable of having success as we have seen it done already. Cousins made one start last season in place of an injured Griffin against Cleveland and was very solid with a 104.5 quarterback rating. The Falcons will not give much resistance on defense. Atlanta has been playing better of late but has still dropped two of its last three games and at this point of the season, the Falcons should not be laying this many points, no matter who they are playing. Atlanta has covered its last three games which is going to get some action on its side again this week but considering it has been an underdog in each of its last seven games, going to a touchdown favorite is simply too aggressive. We have two excellent situations favoring Washington here. First, we play on road teams with a winning percentage of .250 or less after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 38-9 ATS (80.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or less coming off a home loss by 21 points or more, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 27-10 ATS (73 percent) since 1983. Additional, Washington is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 6.0 or more yppl while Atlanta is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 home games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread. 9* (305) Washington Redskins
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12-15-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Minnesota Vikings +6 | Top | 30-48 | Win | 100 | 72 h 11 m | Show |
The Eagles won their fifth straight game last week in a snowstorm at home as they defeated the Lions 34-20. They have covered four of those and now the public is backing them to keep the streak going to this is no easy task on the road in Minnesota. Philadelphia has not been on the road in a month as it has had three straight home games along with a bye in there as well. Granted, the Eagles have won four straight road games and are 5-1 on the highway this season but now they come in being favored by the most points on the highway this season. The Vikings lost a crazy game in Baltimore last week as they were up 12-7 with just over two minutes left and then the fireworks took off as there were five touchdown scored in the final 2:05 including the game winner by the Ravens with four seconds remaining. It was a tough loss to take and with Leslie Frasier on the chopping block, players are not going to quit but continue to play hard for jobs for next season. Minnesota has won its last two games at home and it is 5-2 ATS as an underdog of less than a touchdown this season. Minnesota falls into a great situation as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 14 or more ppg in the first half, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 63-27 ATS (70 percent) since 1983. Also, the Vikings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after playing their last game on the road and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games while the Eagles are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. Look for Minnesota to keep this one close and an outright win is certainly not out of the question. 10* (324) Minnesota Vikings
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12-09-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears +1.5 | Top | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
With Green Bay winning and Detroit losing, the Bears know this is a must win game for them to hang around in the NFC North race. After losing their last two games, both on the road, Chicago is now 6-6 on the season and a win puts it into a tie with Detroit for first place. Making it more important is that the Bears lost both meetings with the Lions and when they face Green bay in the season finale, the Packers will have Aaron Rodgers back at quarterback. In-between are two more road games so Chicago needs to take care of business at home. The Bears have been a money-burning team of late as they have lost four straight against the number and are 1-8 ATS over their last nine games which is going to keep the public off from playing them and is helping us with a good number this week. The Cowboys meanwhile have won two straight games and are now a half game back of the Eagles after their win yesterday over the Lions. That obviously makes this a big game for them as well but they are just 2-4 on the road this season and going back, they are 12-26 ATS in their last 38 road games coming off a non-conference game. Defensively, Dallas is allowing over 450 ypg on the road and Chicago has an offense that will take advantage. Dallas is ranked 31st in the NFL in pass defense, allowing 294.9 ypg and that goes up to over 300 ypg on the road so Chicago's sixth-ranked passing attack should be able to light it up. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games in the second half of the season against teams averaging or more 375 ypg and the Bears fall into a great contrarian situation where we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 93-51 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (160) Chicago Bears
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12-08-13 | Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints -3 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The Saints are coming off an embarrassing loss on Monday night at Seattle. It is not easy for any team to win there, let alone compete, so we cannot take that loss too much into consideration. Plus New Orleans has always taken a step down when going on the road but now the Saints are back home, coming off a loss and first place in the NFC South on the line. This is where this team shines. New Orleans is 6-0 at home and has dominated for the most part, winning those games by an average of 17.4 ppg. Granted, this will be one of the toughest test but knowing they have to go to Carolina in two weeks, they will take this game as a must win. Carolina is the hottest team in the NFL as it has won eight straight games and possibly even more impressive for our concerns, it covered seven of those. The linesmakers seemed to have finally caught up though as the Panthers are getting a short number in New Orleans with a lot of that based on the recent performance as well as the Saints debacle in Seattle. Four of Carolina's wins during the streak have come on the road but only one of those was a quality win, which came at San Francisco. The atmosphere will be too much for them here in primetime. The Saints are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as home favorites including 12-2 ATS as home favorites of a touchdown or less. Also, they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games coming off a road loss including a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. Carolina has owned this series when playing on the road, going 11-1 ATS in its last 12 trips to New Orleans but that streak, along with the current winning streak, comes to a crashing halt Sunday night. 10* (142) New Orleans Saints
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