Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-08-13 | NY Giants +3.5 v. San Diego Chargers | 14-37 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
After losing a tough game to Dallas, the Giants bounced back last week against the Redskins for a must win after falling behind 14-0. They are not dead yet as it may take going 4-0 down the stretch along with a lot of help to win the division but they are still mathematically alive. They still have tough games against Seattle and Detroit but right now the motto is one game at a time. New York has won five of its last six games after a dreadful 0-6 start and while it may be too little, too late, any hope is some hope. After a strong start to the season, the annual Chargers fade is taking place and Norv Turner isn't even around anymore. They have lost four of their last five games including a home game last week against Cincinnati. San Diego is still alive in the Wild Card picture in the AFC but this team has not been able to do much on offense lately with the exception of the Kansas City game. But that was after two defenders went down and the Chargers now face a Giants defense that has been playing exceptional of late. San Diego's defense meanwhile is ranked 29th in the NFL so look for the Giants offense to again have success as they have scored 21 or more points in seven of their last eight games. The Giants have a simple yet effective situation on their side as we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 82-46 ATS (64.1 percent) over the last five seasons. The Giants are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games following a road win while going 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams allowing 260 or more passing ypg. 9* (153) New York Giants
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12-08-13 | Tennessee Titans +13 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 28-51 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
While it is hard to put a team as good as Denver in a letdown situation, this is certainly as close as it gets as the Broncos are coming off three huge games, two against the Chiefs and one against the Patriots, so now is the time to take a breath. On top of that, Denver has a Thursday night divisional game up next against the Chargers. Denver has been close to unstoppable at home but this could be the biggest test for the Broncos yet and it isn't only because of the opposition. The weather forecast looks pretty dismal as temperatures probably won't get out of the teens and we all know how Peyton Manning struggles in the cold. And if you didn't know, he does. Denver is a game clear of Kansas City in the AFC but it pretty much amounts to a three-game lead based on the season sweep so for the Chiefs to overtake the Broncos, it will take a minor miracle. Tennessee is coming off a loss against the Colts which was its third in four games but the playoffs are not out of the question as the Titans are just a game behind Miami and Baltimore for the second Wild Card spot. The good news is that this is the toughest remaining test of the season so a win here could feasibly mean winning out which would likely be good enough for a possible playoff berth. So we know they will be playing hard and we are more concerned about staying within this generous number. Tennessee falls into a great contrarian situation as well as we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 79-39 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (149) Tennessee Titans
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12-08-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
Pittsburgh's playoff hopes took a big hit last week after it lost on Thanksgiving night at Baltimore although it was a valiant comeback effort. The Steelers divisional hopes are all but shot but they are still fighting for the playoffs and a win here would be a huge step. They trail the Dolphins and Ravens by one game for the second Wild Card spot so a win here would put it a game back of Baltimore and even though it would be tied with Miami, the tiebreaker is theirs due to the head-to-head win. The road has been tough for the Steelers as they are 2-5 but they have won three straight games at home while covering all of those as well. Pittsburgh has covered four straight overall and while that is a streak I tend to go against, the situation is a good one and we are actually getting line value in my opinion. Miami is coming off a blowout win against the reeling Jets but this team has been very inconsistent. The Dolphins opened the season 3-0 but they have gone 3-6 since then and have not won consecutive games since September. Of their 12 games, they have been outgained eight times and while they are 3-3 on the road, they are 1-3 in their last four road games. The Steelers fall into a phenomenal league-wide situation as we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Steelers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after covering the spread in four out of their last five games while Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games. 10* (146) Pittsburgh Steelers
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12-08-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Washington Redskins +3.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
The run that the Redskins had last season will not be replicated and they will be missing pout on the playoffs after coming into the season as one of the favorites to win the NFC East. They have dropped four straight games to fall to 3-9 but I like them in this particular spot as teams that are playing their third straight home game and failed to win and cover the first two tend to do a great job in getting it done in the third game. The worst part about the four-game losing streak is that Washington has won the yardage battle in three of those games as it has been miscues that have cost them. Now they have the chance to play spoiler and even though the playoffs may now be a pipedream, they have not tossed in the towel. Kansas City is coming off its second loss to Denver in three weeks and its third loss overall. I felt we were getting value on the Chiefs last week but after jumping ahead 21-7, they fell apart when it mattered the most. After three straight divisional games and with the fifth seed in the AFC Playoffs all but locked up, I see a huge letdown this week. Kansas City has been outgained in five straight games and while Andy Reid is 3-0 so far this season against his former divisional foes, I do not see it happening again here. The Chiefs are 9-3 but are actually getting outgained on the season by 29 ypg while Washington, despite being 3-9, is actually outgaining its opponents by 12.1 ypg. So we have two teams with skewed records and the better team statistically is getting points at home. Here we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 93-51 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (132) Washington Redskins
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12-02-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks -4.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This could very well be a preview of the NFC Championship as Seattle and New Orleans have the inside track of grabbing the two bye spots for the playoffs. The Seahawks are in better position as even a loss here keeps them two games ahead of the 49ers in the NFC West while New Orleans is just a half-game up on Carolina in the NFC South. That makes this a bigger game for New Orleans but that is not something we will be taking into consideration here. The Saints are a powerful team no doubt but they are a different team on the road as they have struggled for the most part in all five road games this season. The Seahawks meanwhile have one of, if not the best, home field advantages in all of football and we are getting a very solid number here in my opinion. This line has dropped since opening and the big reason is due to the Seattle secondary missing Walter Thurmond and Brandon Browner but it will be fine as the Saints best pass catchers are not even receivers. The defense excels inside as the Seahawks have allowed the fewest yards per play on screen passes in the NFL the last two seasons. The Seahawks have won 13 straight games at home dating to last season and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games following a win while going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a home win. Meanwhile, the Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. 10* (450) Seattle Seahawks
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12-01-13 | Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. San Diego Chargers | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show | |
Writeups will be truncated this weekend. The Bengals are coming off a bye week and I think it came at a pretty good time. While they took care of Cleveland rather easily in their most recent game, Cincinnati was starting to leak some oil as it lost its previous two games before that and was involved in some close outcomes going back further. While the Bengals had won two straight on the road, they have lost their last two games on the highway. Even though both of those came in overtime meaning they could have been won, with the playoffs approaching, they need to take care of things on the road. San Diego is coming off that thrilling win last week in Kansas City to keep its playoff hopes alive and it was a much needed win as it snapped a three-game losing streak and got it back to a game under .500 overall. Even though the playoffs are still in the equation, I like playing against teams coming off a divisional win as an underdog as it can provide an immediate letdown. That is what I am expecting here. 9* (445) Cincinnati Bengals
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12-01-13 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs +6 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
Writeups will be truncated this weekend. We played against Kansas City last week and while the Chiefs put up a fight against the Chargers, the defense could not make the stops when needed. While Denver is obviously a lot better than San Diego, Kansas City goes from home favorite to home underdog and that is a spot I like to play because it is a big line swing in the span of just one week. The Broncos are coming off a devastating loss against the Patriots as they blew a 24-0 lead and eventually lost in overtime. That is a tough defeat to recover from. While I have been anti-Chiefs most of the season, I think they are getting a lot of value here and one of the big reasons is that they are getting close to the same amount of points at home than they did on the road just two weeks ago. Here we play on home underdogs or pick after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 92-48 ATS (65.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (428) Kansas City Chiefs
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12-01-13 | St. Louis Rams v. San Francisco 49ers -7.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
Writeups will be truncated this weekend. We won with both of those teams last week as the 49ers easily got past the Redskins on Monday night while the Rams blew out the Bears last Sunday. San Francisco snapped a two-game losing streak with that victory and served as a wakeup call. The 49ers now head back home to bounce back from their last home game, a loss against Carolina three weeks ago. This late in the season, San Francisco has to continue to keep winning to keep pace with the Seahawks in the NFC West. The Rams have been inconsistent this season but they are riding a two-game winning streaks with both victories being blowouts. Or were they? The scoreboard shows 30 and 21 points victories but St. Louis was outgained both times as it took advantage of turnovers and special teams edges. I do not expect those good fortunes to continue for a third straight game. The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 15 or fewer points in their previous game and I expect that defensive prowess to continue again. 10* (442) San Francisco 49ers
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12-01-13 | Chicago Bears +1 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
Writeups will be truncated this weekend. After playing against the Bears last week, we will be backing them here this week. They were in a very tough spot last week coming off an overtime win at home over Baltimore the previous week and facing a Rams team coming off their bye week. While it is pretty early to call games must wins, this is about as close as you can get to a must win game at the three-quarter mark of the season. Chicago has alternated wins and losses over its last seven games as well so it has at least played well following a loss. Minnesota played Green Bay to a tie last week on the road but it felt like a loss as the Vikings blew a big lead in regulation. It has been a tough season for Minnesota which is 2-8-1 and even though this is a divisional rivalry game, I cannot see this team putting forth another strong effort in consecutive weeks as we have yet to see it this season. The Vikings are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a cover and even though we are not getting a number of points, I don't think we will even need them as a big Chicago victory is what I see taking place. 10* (433) Chicago Bears
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11-28-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | Top | 20-22 | Loss | -120 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
A few weeks ago, this much anticipated game was starting to look like it was going to be a dud but now there is a lot on the line. Because of the severe dropoff between the AFC elite and second tier teams, the 5-6 record both teams possess have them right in the Wild Card hunt. Additionally, they are just game behind the Bengals in the AFC North. I however give Baltimore a significant edge here based on home field as not only is it at home, but it is the second straight home game while the Steelers are playing their second straight road game. After losing three straight games, the Ravens have won two of their last three games with the lone loss coming in overtime in Chicago. They are 4-1 at home this season and going back, the Ravens are 27-4 over their last 31 home games and while two of those have been within a span of just seven regular season games, they came against Denver and Green Bay with Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers respectively behind center. After a 0-4 start, the Steelers have turned things around by going 5-2 over their last seven games including winning their last three games. Pittsburgh is just 2-4 away from home and while it defeated Baltimore in the first meeting this season, it has not swept the Ravens since 2008. The Ravens know they have to stack some wins in order to qualify for the playoffs for the sixth consecutive year. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog, after the first month of the season. This situation is 48-22 ATS (68.6 percent since 1983. 10* (308) Baltimore Ravens
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11-28-13 | Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
The Cowboys picked up a huge road win against the Giants on Sunday to maintain their tie with the Eagles in the NFC East. The last thing they want is to follow that up with a home loss on Thanksgiving and while they are clearly the better team in this matchup, the line is already taking that into effect. This is a rare occasion where Dallas had to play on the road prior to its Thanksgiving game but we saw a similar setup just two years ago when the Cowboys won a divisional game in Washington by a field goal and then came back home only to beat Miami by a point on Thanksgiving. This is one of the worst defenses they have put on the field in a while and that can keep Oakland hanging around within this big number. The Raiders lost a tough one at home against Tennessee to fall to 4-7 but because the 2nd Wild Card spot leaders are at 5-6, they are far from out of anything so this is a huge game for them as well. Expect a heavy dose of running as Dallas has allowed 169, 242 and 202 yards rushing in its last three games. The Cowboys are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a win while going 0-6 ATS in their last six games in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (305) Oakland Raiders
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11-28-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Detroit Lions -6 | 10-40 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
Green Bay will be without Aaron Rodgers again this week but in the long run, it is definitely the best move as risking him to further injury could kill the rest of the season. The Packers have struggled without Rodgers and while they did make a great comeback last week against the Vikings, it resulted in a tie. More than likely, it will be Matt Flynn getting the start and if Flynn gets the start, he will be the Packers' fourth starting quarterback this season and the third since Rodgers broke his collarbone. Detroit has lost two straight games and despite going 2-3 over their last five games, they have outgained all five opponents as turnovers have been the difference including five last week against the Buccaneers. Playing on Thanksgiving obviously is a Detroit tradition but it has not been a kind day in recent years as the Lions have lost nine in a row on Thanksgiving. They lost in overtime against Houston last season and ironically, their last Thanksgiving win was in 2003 against the Packers. Green Bay and Detroit met back in Week Five in Green Bay and while the Packers prevailed 22-9 in that game, the Lions played without Calvin Johnson. Detroit has a revenge situation in its favor as we play favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a road loss against opponent and coming off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 54-22 ATS (71.1 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Detroit is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 home games revenging a same season loss and 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games after a turnover margin of -4 or worse last game. Look for the Lions to break the Thanksgiving jinx and in a big way. 9* (304) Detroit Lions
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11-25-13 | San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
A couple of struggling teams take the field tonight as San Francisco and Washington both look to end two-game slides. The 49ers were cruising along with five straight wins before losing to Carolina and New Orleans the last two weeks. The 49ers are beating the teams it needs to but is losing against the top teams as their four losses are against teams a combined 34-10 and the Redskins are not part of that group as they are 3-7 with a lot on the line tonight. Washington was in a similar situation last season when it was 3-7, won its final seven regular season games and made the playoffs. Whether or not a late push is in the cards again this season, the Redskins have confidence knowing this season is not over yet and that is a big deal. But they just are not playing well as two of their wins easily could have been losses and while the Monday night home underdog is always worth a look, it is just not the prudent play here. Here we play against home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a road loss against a division rival, in November games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. San Francisco has been one of the top bounceback teams around, going 9-2 in their last 11 games following a defeat under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Also, San Francisco is 6-0 ATS against teams allowing 375 or more ypg. 10* (233) San Francisco 49ers
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11-24-13 | Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots +3 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 78 h 34 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with the Patriots on Monday night with the whole penalty flag fiasco but New England still would have had to have scored on one play so it was no guaranteed win anyway. I believe the loss actually helps us here as the Patriots are one angry bunch right now and will be out for some retribution. Sitting at 7-3, they are now just two games in front in the AFC East so they need to avoid consecutive losses which is something they have done in the past as New England is 31-5 in its 35 games following a loss under Bill Belichick since 2003. The Broncos are coming off a big win last week against Kansas City at home to take over first place in the NFC West with a rematch looming next week. The public absolutely loves this team, even more than the Patriots now, and I think they are a false favorite in this spot. While Denver plays in cold weather late in the season, Peyton Manning is not a fan of bad conditions and the weather forecast calls for horrible winter conditions and that no doubt favors the home team. While Tom Brady lost as an underdog last week, he is 7-1 ATS in his career as a home underdog. 10* (232) New England Patriots
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11-24-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals -1 | Top | 11-40 | Win | 100 | 73 h 10 m | Show |
The Colts had a huge come-from behind victory last week against the Texans on the road and now they hit the road once again, this time off to the west coast. At 7-3, Indianapolis has a three-game lead in the AFC South and it is looking in pretty good shape to take the division as no other team is stepping up at this point. This game means little. The Colts are 3-0 in the division and 5-2 in the conference and those are the records they need to be concerned with and not an out of conference game. They are the lowest ranked division team in the AFC and I think it is for very good reason. Arizona is 6-4 and playing well with three straight wins. Going back, the Cardinals are 6-3 since an opening week loss and those three defeats came against the Saints, 49ers and Seahawks, all of which are ranked within the top six. Arizona has been outgained only three time this season and sitting in a tie for the second Wild Card in the NFC, it needs to continue to take care of business at home. This is a much bigger game for the Cardinals. Oh an did I mention that current head coach Bruce Arians coached the Colts last season? He will have a game play ready to get the job done. 10* (28) Arizona Cardinals
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11-24-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cleveland Browns -1 | 27-11 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 3 m | Show | |
The Browns are coming off a loss last week against the Bengals but you can consider that a deceiving defeat. Cleveland outgained Cincinnati by 106 total yards but committed four turnovers, one that led directly to a touchdown while also allowing a blocked punt return for a touchdown. The Browns defense was playing on a short field all day while the offense went 0-3 in the redzone, settling for just two field goals. That misleading final score is going to keep the public away from the Browns and onto the Steelers as they are also coming off a misleading final. They defeated Detroit by 10 points despite getting outgained by 53 yards as turnovers were the difference there as well with Pittsburgh winning the turnover battle 3-0. Pittsburgh has won two straight games but both of those were at home and it brings in a 1-4 road record and even the one win was not a true road game as it came in London and the Steelers were the designated "road team" there. The offense remains stale while the Browns possess one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL, currently sitting at fifth overall. Cleveland has been a home underdog in this series for nine straight years and it is favored this year for a reason. 9* (220) Cleveland Browns
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11-24-13 | Chicago Bears v. St. Louis Rams | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 70 h 3 m | Show | |
The Bears were fortunate the weather turned last week as the Ravens were in control of the game until a delay took the momentum out and Chicago was able to get back into the game, which it eventually won in overtime. After opening the season 3-0, the Bears are just 3-4 and have gone 0-3 following their last three victories. Some people will argue that Josh McCown is an upgrade from Jay Cutler, me being one of those, but this comes down to the Bears dreadful defense which is 24th in the NFL including 31st against the run and that is where the Rams can take advantage. St. Louis had dropped three straight games before going to Indianapolis and destroying the Colts two weeks ago prior to its bye last week. You can argue that the bye came at the wrong time, killing momentum, but I'm not sold on that. The Rams are 2-3 at home with a loss to Tennessee that could have been a win and a loss against 10-1 Seattle by just five points so playing in the dome is a big edge here. They fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on favorites with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 40-13 ATS (75.5 percent) since 1983. 9* (222) St. Louis Rams
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11-24-13 | San Diego Chargers +5.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 70 h 2 m | Show | |
The Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season last week in Denver and it was a long time coming. I have said for a while that Kansas City is overrated and I still think it is yet because of the 9-1 record, the lines have to be inflated and that is the case here. The Chiefs could not be in a worse situation as coming off that first loss of the season is always tough and they have to face Denver again next week so the focus could already be on that rematch. The Chargers are 4-6 on the season after suffering their third straight loss at Miami last week. The thing is, while the Chiefs are overrated, the Chargers are underrated as five of those six losses could have been wins. San Diego has been outgained only twice in its last seven games and it is one of only two losing teams in the NFL that actually have a positive point differential so that tells you how much better they are than their record indicates. Conversely the Chiefs have been outgained in six of their last nine games and on the season, they are getting outgained by an average of 16.9 ppg. A 9-1 team that is getting outgained? That is all we need to say right there. The Chargers slim playoff hopes can stay alive with a win here. 9* (215) San Diego Chargers
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11-24-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Houston Texans -10 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -103 | 70 h 5 m | Show |
Everyone is down on the Texans right now as rightfully so. They are the biggest disappointment in the NFL this season as sitting at 2-8, their season is done. The question is have they quit? The simple answer is no. While they have lost eight out of ten games, they have outgained the opposition in eight out of ten games as well which shows they are performing well everywhere except for the scoreboard. Now, the scoreboard is the biggest factor obviously but cut down on turnovers and things will be different and that is what I expect here as Jacksonville has only 12 takeaways the entire season. The Jaguars have been playing well since returning from England by going 1-1 but that is an illusion. They have been outgained by 148 and 142 yards in those two games and on the season, they have won the yardage battle only once and that came by 12 yards in St. Louis. When looking at the combined total yardage differentials, the Jaguars are -113.6 ypg while Houston is +91.9 ypg and that is an enormous variance. The Texans need to take their frustrations out on someone and this looks to be the perfect spot with New England on deck. 10* (212) Houston Texans
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11-21-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +10 | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
It comes as no surprise that the public is betting the Saints hard despite being now favored by double-digits in some spots. New Orleans has won two straight games since losing in New York to the Jets and has a one game lead in the NFC South. Coming into the season, the obvious choice would have been Atlanta that was a game back but it has been a disaster of a season, thus the big number the Falcons are getting tonight. They have dropped four straight games while not covering any of those but three of those were on the road where they are 0-5 on the season. A 2-3 record at home is nothing to be proud of and while many believe Atlanta has given up, tonight is its Super Bowl as playing spoiler against hated New Orleans is the goal. With the playoffs no longer a possibility, playing the Falcons can only be done in certain situations and this is one of those as the Georgia Dome will be rocking. The Saints are coming off that emotional home win over the 49ers and now travel on a short week with a game at Seattle next Monday night so the situation is just as bad on their side. The Falcons fall into a great situation where we play on home teams with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 75-39 ATS (65.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (108) Atlanta Falcons
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11-18-13 | New England Patriots +3 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The Panthers pulled off a stunner last week when they went into San Francisco and defeated the 49ers which had won five in a row but are now clearly struggling. Carolina is now 6-3 and trails the Saints by a game and a half in the NFC South after winning and covering five straight games. With the exception of San Francisco, the wins have come against teams that are not going to make the playoffs and overall, the Panthers have played the 22nd ranked schedule in the NFL and this is where they get tripped up. The Patriots have won two straight games and this is just the second time they have been underdogs this season. With Tom Brady looking to be finally on track and as an underdog coming off a bye week, this is a great spot for New England to move in front in the AFC East by three games. He was 23-of-33 for 432 yards and four touchdowns against the Steelers and when starting, he is 17-7 ATS in the role of underdog. Additionally, the Patriots are 8-1 when he starts coming off a bye week while going 5-0 ATS in their last five Monday games. 10* (429) New England Patriots
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11-17-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 81 h 3 m | Show |
I bet against Denver twice in their last five games and we cashed in those games against Dallas and Indianapolis. I have yet to back the Broncos as even though they have been covering at a good clip, they have been overinflated. We will not be backing them in what I feel is a great price against a very overrated Kansas City team. Denver would essentially take over first place with a win and it knows that it heads to Kansas City in two weeks for a rematch. The Chiefs come in off their bye week which can be considered good or bad. They got to rest and get a little healthier which is a good thing but when you are riding a nine-game winning streak, the last thing you want to do is take a week off an kill all of that momentum but that is precisely what happened to Kansas City. The defense has led the way but there is no chance of stopping this Broncos defense at home after coming off its lowest offensive output of the season against the Chargers. Kansas City is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games against teams averaging 260 or more passing ypg while the Broncos are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games against teams allowing 14 or fewer ppg. 10* (422) Denver Broncos
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11-17-13 | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 77 h 3 m | Show |
The 49ers burned us last week as they ended up losing at home 10-9 after jumping ahead of Carolina 9-0. Now they head to New Orleans where the Saints have looked unbeatable in what can be considered a must win game to avoid falling behind Seattle by three games in the NFC West. San Francisco had its five game winning streak snapped by the Panthers but they have been very solid coming off a loss, going 9-1 in their last 109 games following a defeat including a 3-0 record on the road and winning by a combined score of 82-19. That basically says a lot about head coach Jim Harbaugh. WE all know the Saints incredible spread records at home but this is a team than can give them big trouble as the 49ers possess a defense that can slow them down and on offense, it has a running game that can keep the Saints off the field. While the New Orleans defense is supposedly improved, they are still allowing 5.0 ypc which is dead last in the NFL. The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or higher so they know what it takes beating the elite. 10* (425) San Francisco 49ers
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11-17-13 | NY Jets v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 74 h 44 m | Show |
Buffalo lost for the third straight game last week as the Steelers shut the offense down once again. The Bills were in a very tough spot though as they went to New Orleans where few teams come out win a win and quarterback Thad Lewis got banged up. He missed the next week so Jeff Tuel got the start but then at Pittsburgh, it was E.J. Manual making the start after being off for six weeks. Three different quarterback s in three weeks does no good for any team but with Manual under center again this week, I think we see a drastic improvement from the offense. The Jets were fresh off a home upset of New Orleans and then their bye week came which I've stated before, can be good or can be bad. I don't think it matters much here but the Jets taking to the road does as they are just 1-3 on the highway and even in the game they won they were outgained. As absurd as it may sound, a Buffalo win puts it just a game and a half back in the Wild Card race and at this points, a .500 record could bring home that second Wild Card spot. The Bills still have plenty to play for as they are a solid 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a road loss. 10* (406) Buffalo Bills
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11-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts -2.5 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 53 h 25 m | Show |
This is going to be a very popular play public wise and while laying road chalk in the NFL is a rare occurrence on this end, this is a great spot for it to come through here. The Colts were absolutely embarrassed at home this past Sunday as they got waxed by the Rams 38-8. Indianapolis lost the turnover battle 5-1 while allowing a long punt return for a touchdown and it is near impossible to compete when that takes place. The Colts actually outgained St. Louis by 34 total yards but that is meaningless to them when they are on the short end of the scoreboard but it is very important to us. That snapped a string of four games where Indianapolis was outgained yet it was able to go 3-1 in those games so it shows being on the right side of the unpredictable intangibles is so important. The Titans are coming off a loss against previously winless Jacksonville so they are feeling pretty down and out as well. Tennessee also lost Jake Locker for the season and while I do feel Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid backup, that is exactly what he is, a backup. The Colts have a two-game lead in the AFC South and this is where the good teams step up as a win here doesn't lock anything up but it gives them a solid cushion. Two situation favor the Colts as we play against home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a loss against a division rival, in November games. This situation is 34-8 ATS (81 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Also, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Tennessee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing against a team with a winning record while Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after one or more consecutive losses. 10* (309) Indianapolis Colts
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11-10-13 | Houston Texans +3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 96 h 59 m | Show |
Houston has now lost six straight games and even worse, lost its head coach at halftime last week against the Colts but it looks as though Gary Kubiak will be making a full recovery which is great news. The Texans were ahead 21-3 at halftime but they were done after that as they lost focus and the playcalling was clearly not the same. Even though Kubiak will not be around this week, things will at least be better in that they will have had a full week to prepare with Wade Phillips, the Texans defensive coordinator, assuming the role of interim head coach. Offensive coordinator Rick Dennison will call the plays. Houston is just two and a half games out of the second Wild Card spot so the season is far from lost but this has turned into a must win and one that they will want to win for coach Kubiak. The Texans have outgained seven of eight opponents this season including outgaining the Colts last week by 169 yards and on the season, they are outgaining opponents by 120.4 ypg which is extremely solid for a team sitting at 2-6. even more impressive is the fact they have played the second toughest schedule in the NFL. Arizona is coming off its bye week following a home win against Atlanta two weeks ago. Sitting at 4-4, the Cardinals are only one game out of the second Wild Card spot in the NFC so they are definitely in the thick of things. But they have been very inconsistent as they have outgained five of eight opponents by a combined 166 total yards however in the three games they were outgained, it was by a total of 389 total yards. The defense has played well as they are ranked 13th overall and 11th in scoring but the offense has been an issue as Arizona is ranked 29th overall and 24th in scoring. Houston quarterback Case Keenum has thrown for 621 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in two starts since replacing Matt Schaub and he will need to remain efficient to try and keep the Cardinals defense off balanced. The Texans fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on road teams with a winning percentage of .250 or less after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 35-8 ATS (81.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (221) Houston Texans
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11-10-13 | Carolina Panthers v. San Francisco 49ers -6 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 40 m | Show |
While I still feel that Kansas City is the biggest fraud in the NFL, Carolina is not far behind. The Panthers have won and covered four straight games after a 1-3 start to move to 5-3 on the season and are now just a game behind the Saints in the NFC South. It has been a solid run but the four wins during the streak have come against teams with no more than three wins and a combined record of 6-27. Even two of their losses came against current non-winning teams and the only team ranked in the top 16 they have played was Seattle at the start of the season. Carolina played the Seahawks tough but that was many weeks ago and all of this translates into the easiest schedule played in the NFL. The defense has been exceptional as the Panthers are ranked third overall and second in scoring but what happens now when they face an offense that has exploded for an average of 34.8 ppg over their last five games? They could be in for some trouble. While Carolina has played a weak schedule, the 49ers have not exactly played the toughest schedule either as theirs is ranked 25th in the NFL. There is a big difference however as San Francisco has proven that it can beat the elite teams in the NFL by taking a look at last season. You cannot call the 49ers record skewed because of the schedule as they would likely be winning anyway. San Francisco has won and covered five in a row, albeit against weak opposition, and it has been hearing the jeers about not beating any solid teams so this cane be their chance, at least what the public thinks as far as Carolina being a solid team. I think the biggest positive for the 49ers however is the fact that they are coming off a bye week following their trip to London. San Francisco is rested, fresh off a much-needed bye week and has begun to reload the roster with top talents on both sides of the ball. San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread while going 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games after one or more consecutive wins. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers are 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less. This is the perfect opportunity for the 49ers to show they still are the elite team in the NFC. 10* (220) San Francisco 49ers
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11-10-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers -1 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 34 m | Show |
The loss of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers cannot be overstated but reading over some of the aftereffects you would think the Packers are done and might as well pack it in. It was extremely tough last week with Seneca Wallace coming into the game in emergency duty as he was not prepared in the least bit and it showed. The difference this week is that Wallace will have had a full week of practice and preparation so things will be a lot better for the offense this time around. We are getting an exceptional line as it has dropped nine points since it opened Sunday night and while many will argue that Aaron Rodgers is worth nine points, I'm not one to buy into that as there are 21 other starters out there along with his replacement and this is the time when these players typically step up after one of their top teammates goes down. Defensively, the Packers did receive some good news this week that Clay Matthews returned to practice after missing the past three games with a broken thumb. The defense is going to have to step up and play very well against a potent offensive team. Everyone saw what the Eagles and Nick Foles did last week in Oakland but don't expect a repeat of that here. Let's not forget that Philadelphia scored a total of 10 points in their previous two games combined so we cannot assume this offense has suddenly found its groove once again. The Eagles are still a game behind Dallas for first place in the NFC East so they are in fine shape but one thing that is not fine is their defense. They are dead last in the NFL in yards allowed and despite giving up just 20 points to the Raiders last week, they allowed 560 yards so if Terrelle Pryor and Matt McGloin can have success, it is safe to say Seneca Wallace can as well. Philadelphia has allowed 368 total yards or more in six of nine games and they have to worry about the Packers resurgent running game as rookie running back Eddie Lacy leads the league in rushing over the last five weeks. While many are counting the Packers down and out, we are far from that group. We play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a double digit road win, after the first month of the season. This situation is 52-25 ATS (67.5 percent) since 1983. Meanwhile the Eagles are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against teams allowing seven or more passing ypa while going 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (206) Green Bay Packers
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11-07-13 | Washington Redskins v. Minnesota Vikings +3 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 55 h 47 m | Show |
Washington has been very inconsistent this season as it comes in 3-5 but we saw a very similar first half a season ago when it started 3-6 only to go on and win its final seven games of the regular season to win the division and make it into the playoffs. Will we see another strong second half from the Redskins this season? I don't think so. Washington needed a last-second goal-line stand to hold off San Diego before winning in overtime last week and that can be a big momentum boost but the Redskins have been unable to win consecutive games this season, following up their first two wins with blowout road losses. Granted, they are facing a team with a losing record this time around but until their defense gets right, they will not be putting together too many winning streak this year. The Washington defense is ranked 30th overall and 31st in scoring and while the Vikings offense is 27th overall, they have scored 23 or more points in six of their eight games. Minnesota is coming off a last second loss against Dallas as the Cowboys were able to make up for their last second loss the previous week in Detroit. The Vikings fell to 1-7 and have dropped four straight games while not winning a single game on American soil. I think that comes to an end here as we are catching a line that is drawing bettors to the side of the short road favorite, similar to what we saw last week in Miami. The Vikings offense as mentioned has been able to score a good amount of points in the majority of their games and with Christian Ponder coming off his two best games of the season and Adrian Peterson coming off a season high 140 yards rushing, this offense can have a lot of success against the weak Redskins defense. The Vikings defense is not much better but they had a strong effort last week in Dallas as by holding the Cowboys to only 36 rushing yards, the Vikings dropped their defensive average against the rush by almost 10 ypg and improved their ranking form 21st to 12th in the NFL. Minnesota has lost three games in the final minute this season so it has played better than its record indicates and I give it a significant edge in playing this game at home on a short week. 10* (108) Minnesota Vikings
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11-03-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers +7 v. New England Patriots | Top | 31-55 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 22 m | Show |
It has certainly been a difficult season for the Steelers that few saw coming. Pittsburgh opened up with a home loss against Tennessee and then went on to lose three more after that for its worst start since beginning 1-3 in 2006, the final season for head coach Bill Cowher. The Steelers won two straight after that and when it looked like things were finally turning around, they went into Oakland last week, fell behind 21-3 at halftime and could not recover. While they are 2-5, they are not as bad as that record indicates as they are outgaining opponents by close to 20 ypg but the problem has been turnovers. They are -9 in turnover margin mostly due to a defense that has only five takeaways and three of those took place last week against the Raiders. The offense has been below average but the Pittsburgh defense is still a force as it is ranked fourth in the NFL. Obviously, taking care of the ball is a must here. The Patriots meanwhile are 6-2 but they are not a very good 6-2. they have been outgained in five of those eight games and are getting outgained by an average of 16.3 ypg so the record and stats posted are the exact opposite of the Steelers. Yes, New England is 4-0 at home but it easily could have lost three of those games had things not gone their way and that is in reference to turnovers as the Patriots are +7 in turnover margin at home. These things have a way of balancing themselves out, especially with teams that are not as good as they appear to be. The offense behind Tom Brady has been below average this season despite a lot of points scored the last three games and we will see the unit struggle against this tough Steelers defense. The Steelers have been great in these spots as they are a perfect 8-0 straight up and against the number in their last eight games as underdogs when facing an opponent with a winning percent below .800 and coming off a win. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half going up against an opponent after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (419) Pittsburgh Steelers
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11-03-13 | Tennessee Titans -3 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
The Rams put everything they had into their game against Seattle on Monday night only to fall just short as a last minute game-winning touchdown try went amiss. Picking up the pieces from that defeat is going to be extremely difficult for St. Louis and playing on a short week does not help matters. The defense played one of its best games of the season against the Seahawks and it was actually the best of the season as far as yards go as the Rams allowed just 135 total yards. Overall, they outgained Seattle by 204 total yards but it still resulted in a second straight loss. Quarterback Kellen Clemens made his first start since replacing Sam Bradford and the results were not good as he went just 15-31 for 158 yards and two picks. While the Seattle defense is one of the best in the NFL, Tennessee's defense is no slouch. The Titans have lost three straight games but two of those were without quarterback Jake Locker. He returned against San Francisco in their last game and while it resulted in a loss by 14 points, the titans won the yardage battle by 19 yards and Locker did not play that poorly. Tennessee lost the turnover battle 2-0 and one of those resulted in a touchdown when the 49ers recovered a fumble in the endzone. The three-game losing streak certainly stings but it has been against teams that are a combined 21-3 so it is not surprising. The best news is that the Titans are coming off a bye week so they will be more than energized to get back to their winning ways when they started the season 3-1. I'm normally not one to be laying points on the road but this situation sets up perfectly for it. The Rams defensive effort was outstanding against the Seahawks as mentioned but coming back from that will be too touch as they are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The Titans meanwhile are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a spread loss and they fall into a great situation where we play against home underdogs or pickems that are coming off a loss against a division rival, in November games. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (407) Tennessee Titans
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11-03-13 | New Orleans Saints v. NY Jets +6.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show |
We played against the Jets last week as they went into Cincinnati and got steamrolled by the Bengals. It was the perfect letdown opportunity involving New York as it was coming off a huge overtime victory over rival New England the previous week and it was clear that the Jets were still feeling the hangover as they fell behind 14-0 in the first quarter and could not recover. Not the Jets are back home where they are 3-1 on the season and in full bounce back mode and that is something they have been successful at all season. New York has followed up its previous three losses with wins and covers and while most are not giving it a chance against the high-flying Saints, I am fully behind the Jets as they should be able to rebound at home again. The Saints should be 7-0 right now but poor clock management against Patriots led to a last second loss. They bye week came at a perfect time for them as they were able to move away from that and bounced back as expected with a big win over Buffalo last week. New Orleans now hits the road again for the third time in four games and this is clearly a different team on the highway. The Saints barely got by Tampa Bay in their first road game of the season as they won by only two points and then in the last two roadies, they were outgained in both Chicago and New England. There is no choice for the linesmakers to list the Saints as the road favorites here but prior to last week, this line was -3.5 so it shows how one week can change the public perception of not just one, but both teams. The effort from the Jets last week was horrific and the players heard about it so you know this week we will see a much better effort this time around. We have seen success in the past as the Jets are 4-0 straight up and ATS as underdogs of less than 7 points against opponents that are coming off a win. New York also falls into a great league-wide situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half going up against an opponent after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (406) New York Jets
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10-31-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Miami Dolphins +3 | Top | 20-22 | Win | 100 | 57 h 55 m | Show |
We won with Cincinnati this past Sunday as it destroyed the Jets which were coming off that big overtime win over New England the previous Sunday. The Bengals have now won four straight games to move to 6-2 overall and they have a 2.5-game lead in the AFC North. The win over the Jets improved Cincinnati to 4-0 at home so it is just 2-2 on the road and both of those victories came by just three points each including one in overtime at Buffalo. The offense is clicking right now as the Bengals have averaged 34.3 ppg over their last three games while putting up 435.3 ypg. That makes this week a challenge. Miami started the season 3-0 but it has lost its last four games and the one this past week was probably the most disappointing as the Dolphin built a 17-3 lead only to allow the final 24 points of the game. They are under .500 for the first time and they will also be looking to get back to .500 at home where they are 1-2 with losses against Baltimore and Buffalo by a combined five points. Miami is trending in the right direction at least as it was outgained in each of its first five games but has won the yardage battle the last two games albeit by just 74 yards combined. Still, this is a desperate team in need of a victory and I like the fact we have seen the last two Thursday wins go to the road favorite and that is where the public action is going to be again this week. What has really hurt Miami has been turnovers as they have 10 over the last four games while having just four takeaways. Conversely, the Bengals have only given it away four times during its winning streak so it is easy to figure out why these teams have gone in opposite directions. Miami falls into a solid contrarian situation as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 59-28 (67.8 percent) since 1983. The Dolphins have covered four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati meanwhile is 0-2 ATS this season as a road favorite and the winning streak comes to an end this Thursday. 10* (304) Miami Dolphins
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10-27-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings +10 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 1 m | Show |
The nightmare season continues for the Vikings as the Josh Freeman experiment ended rather abruptly as he is done after one start due to a concussion. They lost in New York last Monday night and he certainly didn't do much to help as he passed for only 190 yards while the offense generated just 206 total yards. The adage goes teams are not as bad as they look the previous week and we are expecting that to hold true here with Christian Ponder back at quarterback. The Packers have been one of the worst pass rushing teams in the league this year, and although the Vikings' offensive line is one of the most inconsistent in the NFL, things are shaping up for Ponder to make the most of his return to the starting lineup. This is just Minnesota's third home game of the season and what better spotlight to turn things around than on Sunday night primetime against the hated Packers. Green Bay has won and covered three straight games which is also playing into this inflated line it is laying here. The Packers do look to be clicking once again as they have outgained each of their last five opponents but this is not going to be an easy environment come Sunday night to continue their recent dominance. The offense has not missed a beat despite numerous injuries but now Green Bay has to deal with another one as tight end Jermichael Finley is out after a severe neck injury last week so the depth at tight end is next to nothing. Aaron Rodgers has had his struggles against the Vikings and while the pass rush for Minnesota has not been the same, the home crowd could lift it up here. The wild card here could be a simple one and that is to get Adrian Peterson going as he has not lived up to expectations from last season. Facing the Packers could break him out of his slump though. In the two games these teams played in the regular season last year, Peterson ran for a total of 409 yards and two touchdowns. He was slowed down in the playoff game with just 99 yards but the Vikings had to start Joe Webb in that game so the Packers were able to key on Peterson. Here we play against favorites after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (230) Minnesota Vikings
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10-27-13 | Atlanta Falcons v. Arizona Cardinals -1 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 73 h 57 m | Show | |
After losing three straight games, Atlanta bounced back last week and took care of Tampa Bay but it wasn't overly easy. The Falcons were outgained by 46 total yards and lost the first down battle 23-15. They once again could not get a running game going as they finished with just 18 yards on 18 carries (1.0 ypc). Atlanta also benefitted from a 30-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown for its first score and the Buccaneers were forced to settle for three field goals. All-in-all, it was not the dominating performance Atlanta was hoping for coming out of its bye week and now it has to hit the road where it is winless on the season. The Falcons are outgaining opponents by just 8.3 ypg and while the offense is a solid ninth in both scoring offense and total offense, the injury situation is dire and will catch up eventually. Arizona has had some extra time to rest as it played last Thursday against Seattle where it lost by 12 points, its second consecutive loss following two straight wins. While the Cardinals are getting outgained overall on the season, they have won the yardage battle in four of their seven games and while they have the added time leading up to this game, they have a bye week on deck so avoiding a third straight loss going into that is top priority. Playing at home is definitely a benefit for the offense as Arizona is averaging 23 ppg in its three home games compared to 16 ppg in its four road games. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record. This is the first time Arizona has been a favorite this season and the consensus is showing a bucking of that as the majority of the action has been on Atlanta yet the line has not budged. This is an indicator of public betting on the Falcons based on the past and not the present. We play against road underdogs or pickems that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1983. on top of that, Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win while the Cardinals are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games following a home loss. 9* (228) Arizona Cardinals
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10-27-13 | NY Jets v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | Top | 9-49 | Win | 100 | 76 h 56 m | Show |
The Jets are coming off a huge win last week at home against the Patriots following a controversial penalty call but nonetheless, it puts them in a tough spot this week. As has been the case all season with New York, it has followed up its wins with a loss next time out and I don't see how this is going to be any different. The best example was the win prior to this last one when the Jets went into Atlanta on Monday night and defeated the Falcons only to come home the following week and lay an egg against the Steelers. The victory over the Patriots was arguably an even bigger one and the only difference now is that the Jets have to go on the road which makes it even tougher. In games at New England and Atlanta, New York was getting double-digits and this week, it is getting less than a touchdown in most places so I see a lot of value on the Bengals here. Cincinnati is coming off two dramatic road wins over the last two weeks to take a two-game lead in the AFC North over Baltimore and Cleveland. This is normally a fade spot against teams in college but it tends to be different in the NFL in a lot of cases. Because those games were on the road and now the Bengals travel home, I feel this is a big momentum boost and it is accentuated even more because their next two games are on the road including a game at Miami this coming Thursday. Cincinnati has won five of its last six games while going a perfect 3-0 at home both straight up and against the number and has won five straight games at home dating back to last season. The defense has led the way as overall, Cincinnati is seventh in scoring and ninth in total defense. But it will be up to the offense to be able to pull away in this one which I think is a definite. The one thing that the Bengals can limit here is the Jets pass rush ability. Pro Football Focus rates the Bengals offensive line second in the league in pass-blocking efficiency and that is a major challenge to a defense that relies heavily on its pass rush to stop its opponents' passing game. The Bengals fall into an awesome situation as we play against teams that are coming off a win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) since 1983 including going 7-1 ATS over the last five seasons. 10* (222) Cincinnati Bengals
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10-27-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Jacksonville Jaguars +17 | 42-10 | Loss | -115 | 70 h 35 m | Show | |
The NFL travels to London for a second time this season and it looks like another dud with the 49ers and Jaguars squaring off. After back-to-back blowout losses, San Francisco has again found its groove as it has won four straight games while covering all of those as well. This is a train not many want to step in front of but we will be the exception. While the scoreboard shows domination, the stat sheets do not as the 49ers have been outgained in the last three games. They have taken advantage of opportunities as they won the turnover battle in all three games and by a combined 10-2 while scoring two defensive touchdowns directly off two of those. Going back, the 49ers have been outgained in five of their last six games. And then we have Jacksonville which is still winless on the season at 0-7 and while this does not look like the opportunity to break through for that elusive first victory, tell that to the Broncos. The Jaguars have played a lot better since the return of wide receiver Justin Blackmon as they have come close to doubling their offensive output after he came back. Granted this will be toughest defense Jacksonville has seen over this stretch but the Jaguars are at least playing with the most confidence they have all season. While they are just 1-6 ATS, three of the last six games have fallen within this pointspread while a fourth missed by just one point. Additionally, a number this large always ensures that the backdoor cover is always there. There are two factors the Jaguars are counting on to lift them out of their slump, a greater camaraderie and team spirit after a week spent together, and an added determination to get a win on the board for coach Gus Bradley, who joined the trip late after the death of his father. Jacksonville feels that the talent level is not that great but it is just a matter of execution. Jacksonville falls into one of the best NFL situations around as we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points after seven or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983 including a perfect 7-0 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. The average point differential in those 26 games is just a touchdown. Additionally, NFL underdogs that are getting 16 or more points and are at least 0-3 and facing a team with at least one loss are 9-0 ATS. 9* (210) Jacksonville Jaguars
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10-27-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Detroit Lions -3 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 39 m | Show |
The Lions are coming off a crushing defeat last week as they lost to Cincinnati on a field goal as time expired. The Lions have been able to rebound in their other losses this season and I am expecting the same again this week. Detroit has its bye next week prior to two road games at Chicago and at Pittsburgh so the ultimate goal right now is to go into the week with a win in order to keep pace with Green Bay. That was the Lions first home loss of the season and this is the first opportunity that they have had consecutive games at home. The offense has been outstanding all season with the lone exception being the game at Green Bay in which Calvin Johnson was out which shows how big his presence is. They have been able to feed off big offensive games as the Lions are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Dallas is coming off a big win at Philadelphia to take over first place in the NFC East and while this is Detroit's first back-to-back home set of the season, this is the Cowboys first back-to-back road set of the year. The last time Dallas won a road game with a road game to follow was the start of last season when it won against the Giants on opening week only to get thumped in Seattle the next week. Making matters even more difficult is the fact that the two wins during this two-game streak were both against divisional foes. The Cowboys are now 6-1 ATS his season which is the best spread record in the league and being a public team, this will be ridden out. While Dallas is third in scoring offense and 16th in scoring defense, those rankings drop to 13th in total offense and 29th in total defense. That last ranking will be the downfall here. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game and that also falls into a league-wide situation favoring the Lions. We play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 28-6 ATS (82.4 percent) since 1983. This includes an 11-2 ATS record over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Dallas is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games following a victory. 10* (212) Detroit Lions
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10-20-13 | Denver Broncos v. Indianapolis Colts +7 | 33-39 | Win | 100 | 77 h 12 m | Show | |
Denver has looked human the last couple weeks as it was taken to the brink two weeks ago at Dallas and struggled for a half against Jacksonville last week. Of course, the Broncos may not have been fully focused last week against the Jaguars and they were still able to pull away but now things get a little more difficult. They have lost against the spread the last two games and the number are finally catching up but I do not see an adjustment has been made this week as they are still coming in a pretty hefty road favorite against a very quality team. Obviously the big story here is Peyton Manning returning to Indianapolis for the first time since his departure but as with nay big story like this, the media takes is way out of control and it isn't like he is going to be playing any harder than he already has this season. His numbers are gaudy but this is the toughest environment that the Broncos have seen so far this year. Coming into the season, I said that the Colts were one of the biggest overachieving teams last season as they won numerous close games and despite an 11-6 record, they were actually outscored by three ppg. Fast forward to this season and Indianapolis is outscoring opponents by 8.4 ppg and while a couple blowouts have skewed that, this team could be finding in groove. I played against the Colts this past Monday night as it was a horrible spot as they were coming off a big home win over previously undefeated Seattle and had this game on deck so not showing up in San Diego was a definite possibility and that came to fruition. Indianapolis has been outgained by 106 and 107 total yards in its last two games which is not a good trend coming into this game but with the situation at hand, the Colts are very capable of stepping up. This will be the toughest defensive test for the Broncos through the first seven weeks. The Colts are ranked fifth in passing defense and scoring defense. Additionally, the Broncos could be without starting right tackle Orlando Franklin, who sprained his left knee and ankle against Jacksonville. As good as the Broncos offense has been moving and passing the ball, that's how bad their defense has been, ranking 30th and 29th respectively. They do get Von Miller back this week which is a huge addition but this team is still vulnerable on this side of the ball. The Colts are more than capable to take advantage and it is interesting to note that quarterback Andrew Luck is 6-0 in his career following a loss. 9* (422) Indianapolis Colts
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10-20-13 | Houston Texans +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 73 h 10 m | Show | |
We lost with Houston last week as the Texans continue their struggles. After opening the season with two straight victories, the Texans have lost four straight games and not because they are getting dominated but because they have committed too many dumb mistakes and have handed wins to the opposition. The offense has allowed at least one defensive score in five straight games and that is not going to win many games and as you can see, it hasn't. it is extremely rare to find a team that is sitting at 2-4 that has won the yardage battle in each game but that has been the case for Houston. And they have won four of those yardage battles by at least 186 yards. The Texans are -12 in turnover margin which is the big culprit and that skews point totals. Houston is 26th in scoring offense and 28th in scoring defense yet it is seventh in total offense and first in total defense. That is a massive discrepancy and is no doubt playing a role in the Texans 0-6 ATS record. The Chiefs took care of business again and we were on the wrong side once again. They pulled away late from the Raiders as it was a tie game late into the third quarter but Oakland kicked itself in the foot by stalling on a drive where it had a third and 48 and then tossed an interception that was taken back for a touchdown. Kansas City was outgained for the third time in six games this season and overall, it is outgaining opponents by just 20 ypg. The Chiefs have been the complete opposite of the Texans when it comes to turnovers as the have generated 18 takeaways while giving it up only six times. The offense is ranked ninth in scoring offense thanks to the turnovers and short fields but the total offense is ranked only 25th. They are going to have trouble moving the ball this week. The Texans have a bye week on deck and in order to turn this season around, a win going into that is very important. Quarterback Matt Schaub may not be playing but at this point, it may not be a bad thing at all. The Texans fall into a superior situation where we play against favorites after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The value is there and the Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game while going 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 9* (401) Houston Texans
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10-20-13 | Cleveland Browns +10 v. Green Bay Packers | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 8 m | Show | |
The Packers picked up a big road win at Baltimore last weekend to make it two straight wins coming out of their bye week. One thing to take note of though is that the offense has scored fewer points in each of their last four games, going from 38 to 30 to 22 to 19 points and that is not a mistake. This offense is able to move the ball but Green Bay has not been able to get into the endzone as it has been forced to attempt 14 field goals through the first five games this season. Execution obviously is a big factor in that but this offense is riddled with injuries and the offensive line has been garbage. Overall, they have the fifth-worst red-zone offense in the NFL this year. Things are not as easy as they used to be for Green Bay yet they are being asked to lay double-digits against a very underrated team in my opinion. Cleveland had its three-game winning streak snapped last week against the Lions which was unfortunate as it could not build off that positive momentum. The score shows the Browns lost by 14 points against Detroit last week but they outgained the Lions by 29 yards which was the third time in the last four games they have won the yardage battle. Quarterback Brandon Weeden made a bonehead interception which stalled a drive and pretty much ended the chances of a win. Cleveland had gone two straight games without committing a turnover so taking care of the ball is a possibility and the Packers bring in a pretty average defense to begin with. The Browns are 3-3 and could feasibly be 4-2 at this point for them to get getting 11 points is crazy to me. This one comes down to Weeden and his ability to control the offense and not commit turnovers. His receiving corps, led by Josh Gordon, Davone Bess and tight end Jordan Cameron, have developed well under offensive coordinator Norv Turner's new system. After scoring 16 points total in its first two games combined, Cleveland has averaged 25.5 ppg over its last four games. On the other side, the Browns defense is ranked seventh in the league, allowing of 312.5 ypg. They are seventh in rushing defense at 98.2 ypg, and eighth in passing defense at 214.3 ypg so this is a very solid unit that can slow the Packers down especially with the injuries they have. The Browns are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss and with Green Bay having a divisional game at Minnesota next week, they should improve upon that record. 9* (417) Cleveland Browns
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10-20-13 | New England Patriots v. NY Jets +4.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 73 h 42 m | Show |
This is the second meeting of the season between the Patriots and Jets with New England winning the first game by a score of 13-10. Not a whole lot can be taken from that game as it was just the second game of the season and was played in horrible conditions. Still, the Jets lost and will be out for some payback and I feel they are in an excellent spot to avenge that defeat. They have been a very schizophrenic team this season and they lose badly at Tennessee then win in Atlanta the following week only to come back and put up a dud last week at home against the Steelers. I played against New York in that game as I felt it was a letdown spot and sure enough, it didn't show up. Now the tables are turned as the Jets want to bounce back from that and a victory here would put them just one game back in the AFC East. They have alternated wins and losses all season so it seems fitting that they will pull out a victory here. The Patriots are coming off a huge win last week at home against the Saints, handing New Orleans its first loss of the season. New England was staring at a loss right in the face but a fantastic last minute drive set up the game winning touchdown with just five seconds remaining to move the Patriots to 5-1 on the season. This may not be considered a letdown situation from that win because the Patriots and Jets are hated rivals so New England is surely not looking past New York. However, because of the win last week and the ugly Jets loss, we are getting a fantastic line. New England is not the same team from years past and the Jets are better than what most expected yet we are seeing a very inflated line that the public is still going to ride. Turnovers have been the big problem for the Jets and that was the case in the first meeting as they lost the turnover battle 4-0 so it is near impossible to win a game with that disadvantage although they nearly did. Those miscues have put the defense in some tough spots but they are still ranked fourth overall and have allowed more than 328 total yards only once. On the other side, quarterback Geno Smith has improved immensely since that first meeting and the Patriots defense continues to get banged up and will be without three key starters here. The fall into a great situation as we play on home underdogs that are coming off a loss that average more yards per pass attempt than their opponent does which is coming off a win. This situation is 32-13-2 ATS (71.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (398) New York Jets
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10-20-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -133 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
Jacksonville finally came away with a cover last week as it stayed within the massive number at Denver to move to 1-5 ATS on the season. Normally that would mean possibly laying off the following week but that is not going to be the case here as there is still plenty of value in this number that is severely inflated yet again. The Jaguars have looked a lot better the last couple weeks. Despite losing to the Rams, they outgained them and they are just -33 total yards the last two weeks after being -652 total yards in their first four games. They are also home for just the second time in five weeks as four of their last five games were on the road and while they have been outscored 65-5 in their two home games, those came against the Chiefs and Colts and we cannot be comparing the Chargers to those two teams. Yes, San Diego just defeated the Colts but that means little this week. Indianapolis was coming off a big home win over Seattle while the Chargers were out to bounceback from their last against the Raiders the previous week. Mission accomplished. Now San Diego heads back on the road on a short week in an early game to face the worst team in football and is laying over a touchdown. Good luck with that one. To their credit, the Chargers have exceeded expectations already as not many saw even an average season this year but they are 3-3 and have played relatively well on offense over the last few weeks. Still, this is the far from ideal spot to be in and with a bye coming up, walking out of here with just a small victory is all they can hope for. The Chargers have numerous angles going against them. We play on teams after the first month of the season with a winning percentage of less than .250 going up against teams coming off a win over a team with a winning record. This situation is 57-37-2 ATS (61.6 percent) since 2002 and if the opponent is playing on a short week, the situation is 15-4 ATS (78.9 percent). Going from a home underdog to a road favorite is very rare in this league and does not suit many teams very well. That is certainly the case with San Diego as it is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games when going from an underdog to a favorite the next week no matter the venue. Additionally, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg, after allowing 35 points or more last game. This situation is 55-26 ATS (67.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This is good of a spot as any for Jacksonville to grab its first outright win of the season. 10* (400) Jacksonville Jaguars
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10-17-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Arizona Cardinals +7 | Top | 34-22 | Loss | -115 | 57 h 42 m | Show |
Seattle bounced back with a home victory over Tennessee following its first loss of the season the previous week at Indianapolis. The Seahawks only won by seven points but it was still a dominating performance as they outgained the Texans by 181 total yards and the only touchdown allowed came by the special teams as Tennessee returned a botched field goal for a touchdown. It was a rare non-cover for Seattle at home and now it hits the road where things have not been as successful. The Seahawks are just 5-5-1 ATS on the road under quarterback Russell Wilson including 2-4-1 ATS as road favorites. This is the first road divisional game of the season and last year, Seattle lost all three of those games. Arizona hung around for three and a half quarters last week against the 49ers as it was down by just two points before San Francisco scored the final 10 points of the game to pull away for the cover. The Cardinals actually outgained the 49ers which was the fourth time this season that they have outgained their opponent. They are looking to bounce back from that effort in San Francisco but they are also looking for some payback here after the Seahawks showed no mercy in a 58-0 thumping in Seattle in the second meeting last season. Arizona has played on Thursday night twice before but both of those games were on the road making this their first home appearance which will give it a big home edge. Seahawks defensive end Chris Clemons, who returned from ACL surgery three weeks ago after leading the team in sacks last year, may miss Thursday's game in Arizona after hyper-extending his elbow Sunday against the Titans. If the Seahawks had a usual six-day turnaround, Clemons might have been ready to play Seattle's next game, head coach Pete Carroll said, but it's doubtful with the Cards game on Thursday. That is a huge loss for the defense. The Seahawks are third in both overall and scoring defense but the tow highest point totals allowed have come in their last two road games. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as road favorites against opponents that are coming off a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Seahawks are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Don't be surprised to see the Cardinals take this one straight up but even a loss should keep them inside this inflated number. 10* (304) Arizona Cardinals
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10-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. San Diego Chargers +2.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
The Colts are off to a 4-1 start this season and they are now once again perceived as a public team in the betting markets. They come in following three straight wins including a big road victory at San Francisco and last week, they knocked Seattle from the rank of the unbeatens. With a home game against Denver next week, this presents the perfect sandwich spot to go against the Colts. Indianapolis is actually in the same position as San Diego was in last week as the Chargers were coming off a win as a home underdog against the Cowboys and now finds themselves as a road favorite. Teams in this situation have had a tough time in this reversal situation over the years. Additionally, while this is just the third road game of the season for the Colts, it is the third in the last four weeks including two separate west coast trip which makes it an even tougher travel situation. San Diego is now 2-3 on the season following a loss at Oakland last week despite the fact it outgained the Raiders by 128 total yards. This is just the third home game of the season for the Chargers as they lost to Houston, a game they should have won as they blew a 21-point lead, and then defeated the Cowboys. This is a really big game for the Chargers as they likely are already out of the divisional race with Denver and Kansas City but getting to 3-3 puts them right in the mix in the Wild Card race. The Chargers offense has been playing very well this season under the new coaching staff and system as they have scored touchdowns on 26.4 percent of their drives which is fourth in the NFL. San Diego's per-drive production is a direct result of its revitalized passing game, with quarterback Philip Rivers currently ranking sixth in the league in passing. The Colts are ranked sixth in the league in passing defense but they have played against only one quarterback that is ranked in the top 20 and that is a huge difference. Not counting the Jaguars game, which we cannot do in the case for most opponents that have gone against them, the Colts have been outgained in two of their other four games and are -72 yards in those four games combined. Next week's game against the Broncos cannot be overlooked for the Colts as it will mark Peyton Manning's much-anticipated return to Lucas Oil Stadium and the biggest game of the season to date for Indianapolis. San Diego has covered five straight games following a loss and it will add to that run again tonight. 10* (230) San Diego Chargers
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10-13-13 | New Orleans Saints v. New England Patriots -2.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 74 h 7 m | Show |
We played against the Patriots last Sunday and while it was a spot of going against them since they were undefeated, it was also a spot on playing Cincinnati which was coming off a loss at Cleveland the previous week. This week we have a very similar scenario in our favor only it actually favors New England. The Patriots head home after suffering that first defeat where they are 2-0 on the season but to be fair, they really have not been tested. Playing the Jets and Buccaneers is not the same as playing the Saints but they have a ton of motivation on their side. As does quarterback Tom Brady who is steaming after not putting up a touchdown last week, thus snapping his 52-game streak with at least one touchdown pass. Ironically, he was chasing Drew Brees who has 54 straight games with a touchdown pass. It was also only the fourth time since 2001 (when Brady took over in New England) that the Patriots had been held to six points or less. How did they do the previous three times? They won 44-13, 31-10 and 40-7 so its safe to say he bounces back pretty well. Additionally, the Patriots' offense should improve with the probability of Rob Gronkowski and Stevan Ridley joining Danny Amendola in the lineup. New Orleans is now 5-0 following its win at Chicago last week as it seems to have put last year's disaster behind them. Many figured there would be a turnaround for the Saints so it is not a huge surprise they are off to a 5-0 start especially considering they have played the 26th ranked schedule in the NFL and I think even that isn't low enough. This is the second straight road game for New Orleans and its second straight road game on grass which may not seem huge but considering how strong of a team they are indoors, it does in fact make a difference. While the offense is up to its old tricks, it is the defense that has made the most progress, going from being ranked dead last in total defense last year to being ranked 11th this season. The Saints are 0-3 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games played on grass fields. The Patriots defense has been good enough to carry the offense that has yet to find its stride due to a depleted receiving corps. They are ranked second in points allowed this season so they do have the ability to slow down the Saints to a degree. Chicago did a very good job as they held them to 357 yards and forced four field goals and that is the gameplan to slow down the offense as much as possible. Favorites are now 13-4 ATS in New Orleans's last 17 games. 10* (226) New England Patriots
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10-13-13 | Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 7-24 | Loss | -125 | 52 h 5 m | Show | |
The Raiders took care of business last Sunday night (or Monday morning depending where you are) as they defeated the Chargers to move to 2-3 on the season. They have been a pleasant surprise this far and were a couple plays away from being 3-2 as they were almost able to pull off the upset against the Colts. One of the losses came against the Broncos which has been the case for every team that has played Denver and the other was against Washington after it blew a 14-0 lead so all-in-all, it has not been a bad start considering many still thought they would be the worst team in football. Base on this line however, linesmakers are still thinking this is a pretty bad team or they are thinking the public is going to hammer the Chiefs. Either way, it makes no sense considering that Oakland was getting 16 points at Denver and is getting 10 points in Kansas City. Denver is only six points better than the Chiefs on a neutral field? I don't think so. Even in their losses, the Raiders have fought until the bitter end of games and there will be a ton of fight against one of their most bitter rivals this Sunday. The Chiefs are an even bigger surprise as they are a perfect 5-0 to open the season, on of just three remaining undefeated teams in the league. They were able to pull away late at Tennessee last week to get the cover, their third straight spread winner so they have been cashing for their backers. This is the first of three straight home games and then a game at Buffalo so should Kansas City keep going the way it is and not turning the ball over, it could feasibly be sitting at 9-0 before heading to Denver in an already much anticipated game. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves though as the Chiefs have to take care of business here. Even though the Chiefs have been much worse in recent years, so have the Raiders and yet it is Oakland that has had the upper hand in this series as it has covered seven straight meetings in Kansas City and now Kansas City is favored by the most it has been favored by over this stretch and by a lot. Additionally, the Chiefs have not been a double-digit favorite since 2003 when it wax favored by 10 points over, you guessed it, Oakland. The Raiders lost that game by just three points. As a matter of fact, the Chiefs are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games as a divisional favorite and while this team is different, I don't think it has made that many leaps forward just yet. Look for a closer than expected game here. 9* (203) Oakland Raiders
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10-13-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 | 31-20 | Loss | -100 | 52 h 2 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay is back off its bye week and it came at a good time for things to settle down following the Josh Freeman circus. Now that it is all done, the Buccaneers can go back to playing football and are looking forward to a fresh start. They are sitting at 0-4 and while being winless is no good, they are not that bad of a winless team. Three of their losses have come by a total of six points with the other defeat coming at New England so they have been very respectable at least. Obviously the offense has been a nightmare, hence the change at quarterback and while rookie Mike Glennon wasn't very good in his debut, he has that now behind him and he comes in with two weeks of preparation for this one after being thrown into the fire in his first start. The one thing that Tampa Bay does have is a strong defense as it is ranked 13th overall and eighth in points allowed. That will come into play here as holding the Saints to 16 points on this field was a huge accomplishment. The Eagles took care of the Giants last week to send them to 0-5 while improving themselves to 2-3 which is actually good for a tie for first place in the woeful NFC East. The high-flying offense has not disappointed as the Eagles are ranked second in the NFL in total offense and eighth in scoring offense but the problem is they have been outscored in three losses and it almost could have been four in their opener against Washington. The passing defense is bad but the overall defense is even worse as Philadelphia is ranked 31st in total defense and 30th in scoring defense so as good as the offense can be, the defense is letting it down. Nick Foles may be under center this week taking the place of an injured Michael Vick but I do not feel there is an edge either way. This is the third straight road game for the Eagles which is never easy and they are also in a divisional sandwich with a home game on deck against the Cowboys and a rematch with the Giants right after that. While I don't expect Glennon to go off here, he very well could as the Eagles have allowed four of five opponents to throw for over 300 yards and their overall passing defense is ranked 29th in the league. The Buccaneers also fall into the same situation that the Steelers do as they are also part of an incredible situation backing winless teams. Underdogs that are at least 0-4 and are coming off a bye are 21-4 ATS the last 25 instances with two of those four defeats missing by just a point. 9* (206) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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10-13-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Buffalo Bills +7 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 1 m | Show | |
The Bills lost a tough game in Cleveland as they could not overcome the loss of quarterback E.J. Manual who is expected to be out for a significant amount of time. That is a tough loss but I think Buffalo will be just fine and it is catching a severely overinflated number here based on the Manual loss. The Bills have been excellent on their home field with wins over Carolina and Baltimore and taking New England down to the final seconds. Obviously the concern is at quarterback and after watching Jeff Tuel struggles last week after coming it, it should be. However, the Bills are going with Thad Lewis and while not many know who he is, he should fit right in. Lewis, who spent the first five weeks of the season on the practice squad, was signed to the active roster. That is big since he knows the offense inside and out. "He can run, he can extend plays, he can run the read option. He can throw the ball extremely well," head coach Doug Marrone said. "One of the questions people are going to ask is, 'Does he know the whole system?' He does. He knows everything. He's as bright as hell." Lewis said he has a "great grasp" of the Bills' game plan. "Every week, you don't just sit there on the practice squad and not prepare as if you're the starter. That's your job. This is what you're supposed to do," he said. "You have to learn, you have to know the things that you need to do, so I've been doing that every week. It will be a regular week for me, except that I get the chance to start this Sunday." He started a game for Cleveland last year and threw for 204 yards while completing 69 percent of his passes with one touchdown and one interception. The Bengals won last week but did not look great in doing so although the weather did play a part. The offense has not been very good and seems to be stuck in neutral as the Bengals are ranked 22nd in total offense and 25th in scoring offense. They have put up more than 21 points only once and that was against Green bay where they put up just 297 total yards. Insiders report that his teammates are having some doubts about quarterback Andy Dalton, with his passes too often lacking accuracy in practice, as well as on Sundays. That is not a good thing and he may be starting to feel the pressure. On the other side, Bills safety Jairus Byrd is expected to play Sunday which will be his season debut. I think Lewis can thrive off the home crowd and this is the perfect spot to put him in with two difficult road games on deck. 9* (218) Buffalo Bills
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10-13-13 | St. Louis Rams v. Houston Texans -7 | Top | 38-13 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 23 m | Show |
The Texans have lost three straight games to fall to 2-3 on the season and the natives are getting restless. After making it into the Divisional Playoff Round in each of the last two seasons, Houston once again came into the season with high expectations. Three straight losses and people are calling for quarterback Matt Schaub to be benched and head coach Gary Kubiak to be fired. I think it is a little premature for this as Houston is just two games behind the Colts in the AFC South. Yes, Schaub has tossed a pick six in a record four straight games but those things happen and not all were his fault to begin with. The interesting part is that the Texans have outgained all five of their opponents despite the losing record and they are currently sitting at seventh in total offense and first in total defense. Those rankings tell me that this is a very strong team that is getting scrutiny for no reason just yet. The Rams snapped their three-game losing streak last week as they took out the hapless Jaguars at home by 14 points to improve to a similar 2-3. It was a much needed victory as a loss their could have sent the season into a complete downward spiral but now St. Louis comes in with some momentum and confidence but I think it will be short lived. The Rams were actually outgained by the Jaguars last week and have been outgained in four of their five games with the only exception being Atlanta where they outgained the Falcons by 28 total yards thanks to a late garbage score. Even that seven-point loss is looking worse after the struggles that Atlanta is going through. Prior to the Jacksonville game, the Rams defense had allowed 31, 31 and 34 points in their previous three games ad I expect another poor effort here. St. Louis is giving up an average of 169 yards per game on the ground during its last three games and on the season, it has allowed 11 touchdown passes while just picking three passes and has allowed an 7.4 ypa average. The Rams offense has not been much better as it is ranked 29th in total offense and 20th in scoring offense and facing this defense will be a challenge. In particular, the injury-plagued Rams offensive line figures to have problems with the active Houston front seven. The Texans are first in passing defense and third in defensive ypa average and while the rushing defense has struggled at times, the Rams pose no threat as it is close to the bottom in all rushing categories. The Texans are 0-5 ATS which is a streak I like going against as since 2007, teams that are on 0-5 ATS runs have gone 25-11 ATS (69%) in their next game. I expect the Texans to easily break that skid here. 10* (214) Houston Texans
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10-13-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 19-6 | Win | 100 | 72 h 40 m | Show |
The Steelers are winless and are looking at missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season for the first time ever under head coach Mike Tomlin. They are 0-4 following their loss in London against the Vikings so the bye week could not have come at a better time. Although extremely rare, making the playoffs at 0-4 has been done in the past so Pittsburgh is looking at making a run to see what happens. And it will mean starting here this Sunday in New York as it needs to put together a complete game. The Steelers still possess a top ten defense but it is one that has not created a turnover yet this season and that is a rarity for this stop unit. On the opposite side, the offense has 11 turnovers so it is safe to say that a team with a -11 turnover margin differential will not be seeing the postseason. The thing is that Pittsburgh is only two games out of first place in the AFC North so no team is running away with this division. The Jets are coming off a come-from-behind win over the Falcons on Monday night and now have a short week to get ready for a team that has had two weeks off. That is not an easy spot to begin with. The Jets surprised some people with a 2-1 start but after getting throttled at Tennessee, everyone was on their case once again. Now off a big win, people are back on the bandwagon and that is how this league works as opinions change from week to week. Hats off to quarterback Geno Smith who put together that game winning drive which culminated the best game of his young career as he put up a 147.7 passer rating. Now it is time to face a real defense as the first five opponents are not on the same lever as the Steelers defense. On top of that, under defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, the Steelers are 16-2 against rookie quarterbacks so giving him two weeks to prepare is only icing on the cake. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has turned the ball over six times in his last two games, but now has a legitimate running back with the return of rookie Le'Veon Bell, who scored the Steelers' only two rushing touchdowns on the season during his NFL debut against the Vikings. The Steelers are also part of an incredible situation backing winless teams. Underdogs that are at least 0-4 and are coming off a bye are 21-4 ATS the last 25 instances with two of those four defeats missing by just a point. To make matters even more desperate for the Steelers, they went 0-4 in the preseason for they are 0-8 ATS and SU which they finally break this week. 10* (215) Pittsburgh Steelers
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10-10-13 | NY Giants +9 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
The Giants incredibly horrible start to the season continued last week as they lost to the Eagles to fall to 0-5 straight up and against the number. There are problems all over the place. Quarterback Eli Manning is throwing too many picks and getting sacked too many times, the running game is non-existent and the defense has not been able to stop anyone. At some point this season, barring an incredible turnaround, this team will be unbettable and while many are thinking that now sitting at 0-5 ATS, they were still overrated but now we can finally get the chance to buy them low. Backing teams on 0-5 ATS runs may seem suicidal but in fact, it is a very strong situation as since 2007, teams that are on 0-5 ATS runs have gone 25-11 ATS (69%) in their next game. The Bears opened the season with a 3-0 record and they were the early talk of the NFL but they have dropped their last two games since then and are once again feeling the heat. They got away with a win against Cincinnati as they had to rally late and the other two wins came against Pittsburgh and Minnesota and the only reason one of those teams has a victory is because they had to play each other in London two weeks ago. Chicago is getting outgained on the season and while it isn't by much, it proves how it has been far from dominating. The favorite has come through in each of the last two Thursday night games and with the Giants sitting at 0-5, the consensus is on the chalk again this week and at a very inflated number. Since coming to Chicago, Quarterback Jay Cutler is 1-7 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games. New York has not dropped its first six games since going 0-9 back in 1976 and this is a record this team does not want to approach. It is imperative to get the running game going and while they have not been able to do it thus far, this could be the game it comes out. Brandon Jacobs will be starting the game with David Wilson out but the Bears defensive line is extremely thin with Henry Melton and Nate Collins out and Stephen Paea still hurting. The Giants defense needs to get pressure on Cutler to try and create turnovers, something Cutler is known to do. The Giants are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home and while the nightmare season could continue, we are getting a healthy dose of points that will at least give them their first cover of the season. 10* (101) New York Giants
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10-07-13 | NY Jets v. Atlanta Falcons -9.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
***THIS IS NOT A PLAY ON ATLANTA ATS***
This a is two-team teaser on Atlanta and the Over. Tease the spread down as well as tease the total down. I typically do not play a lot of teasers but this one sets up well on Monday night. The Falcons are 1-3 and in desperate need of a victory as they currently trail the undefeated Saints by three and a half games plus they already have a loss to New Orleans. Atlanta has dropped its last two games at Miami and at home against New England despite outgaining both opponents. The Falcons are two games below .500 for the first time in the Matt Ryan era and mired in their first losing streak since 2009 going into Monday night so the question remains if last year was a fluke or if they are just having bad luck. I believe it is the latter. The Jets are 2-2 and while they could be sitting at 3-1, they could also be sitting at 1-3. they have outgained every opponent which is a plus but the Patriots have been the only real opponent they have seen. The Jets may have lost some confidence after being beaten up and exposed by the Titans last week and they've already lost both of their road games. Turnovers have really hurt New York as it is 29th in the NFL in scoring offense but 13th in total offense so they are moving the ball well but unable to convert. Facing a banged up Falcons defense could be the cure and while the Jets have dealt with plenty of injuries to their receivers, though they should be bolstered this week by the return of Stephen Hill from a concussion. Falcons defensive end Kroy Biermann is out for the year, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon will miss at least half the season and linebacker Akeem Dent won't play either. Atlanta's offense is ranked 29th in the league in touchdown percentage from inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Last week's 30-23 loss to New England was especially troubling, as the Falcons produced only one touchdown with six red-zone possessions. In two of their three losses, Ryan had the ball inside the opponents' seven-yard line at the end of the game, with a chance to pull out a win. This I feel is what is getting us a lower than normal total and it is the lowest number that the Falcons have had all season so teasing it down more adds to the value. 10* Atlanta and the Over Two Team Tease |
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10-06-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +4.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 81 h 1 m | Show | |
This was supposed to be one of the afternoon games on Sunday but now it is the late, late game due to having to be played after the A's and Tigers game. The time change will not give either team an edge but the good news is that the NFL Network has picked the game up. The Changers are one of many surprise teams as they are 2-2 but could be sitting at 4-0 right now as they allowed the Texans to come back from a three-touchdown deficit in the season opener and then a botched defensive play allowed a late touchdown to Tennessee for the other loss. I don't think this team is all that they are being made out to be as even though the two losses were by just three points each, San Diego was outgained by 186 and 175 yards so those losses were even misleading. Oakland is 1-3 on the season but it has not been nearly as bad as people thought coming into the season. The Raiders nearly upset the Colts on the road in the season opener and then easily took care of Jacksonville which of course is not that big of a deal. They were thumped at Denver but that has been the case for every team and in the last game, they built a 14-0 lead against Washington only to get outscored 24-0 the rest of the way. Oakland was catching three and a half points in that game and now it is catching more points against a team that is inferior to the Redskins in my opinion despite what the records may be showing. The San Diego offense has been playing very well and quarterback Philip Rivers seems to be thriving in the offense as the Chargers are eighth overall and seventh in scoring. The Raiders defense has been pretty decent as well though as they are 17th in total defense and 15th in scoring defense and this is with playing Denver that has totally skewed the numbers. Offensively, Oakland will be getting Terrelle Pryor back at quarterback after missing last week and he has done very well in leading the offense. He is completing a high percentage of passes and his mobility adds an added element to the offense. The Chargers defense has been abysmal as they are 30th overall, 29th against the pass and 25th against the run. Running back Darren McFadden is questionable and while his absence will be big, it is not as big if they were playing against a top level defense. The Chargers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win while the Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss. 9* (432) Oakland Raiders
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10-06-13 | Denver Broncos v. Dallas Cowboys +9 | 51-48 | Win | 100 | 74 h 57 m | Show | |
The Broncos are off to one of the best starts in the history of the NFL statistics wise as they are 4-0 and have outscored their four opponents by a total of 88 points. The 2007 Patriots outscored their first four opponents by 100 points and Denver is being talked about in that same conversation. The Patriots went on to cover their first eight games that year and while Denver is halfway to that point, the makeup is not the same. The offense is spectacular but the defense is well below average which was not the case for the Patriots in 2007. Denver has played three of its first four games at home so the schedule has been in its favor and the lone road game came against the Giants and we all know how they are doing. This will be a big test and there is no reason to think Dallas cannot pull off the upset. The Cowboys are 2-2 on the season with both of the wins coming at home and both losses taking place on the road. They are already 0-2 against the AFC West and despite getting outgained by 189 yards in San Diego last week, they were only down by two points midway through the fourth quarter and against Kansas City, they lost by just one point. Nobody is going to say the Cowboys are a legitimate Super Bowl contender at this point but the pieces are in place for them to keep improving and eventually get to that plateau. Dallas is 19th in both total offense and total defense so the numbers are very average but that is what can keep it flying under the radar. Peyton Manning is having a remarkable season as through four games, he has thrown for 1,470 yards and 16 touchdowns. He is on pace for 5,880 yards and 64 touchdowns and he has yet to throw an interception this season. Through four weeks, the Cowboys defense has done a horrible job against the pass allowing an average of 304 ypg through the air, which ranks 27th in the league. Last week against the Chargers, Philip Rivers absolutely picked apart the Cowboys defense while throwing for 401 passing yards. Now it is time to get pressure on Manning and try and create turnovers as the Dallas offense will have no problem against a below average Denver defense. Catching a touchdown at home is enormous as the Cowboys have not been this big of home underdogs since 2004 when Bill Parcels was the head coach. It shows where the public is now in favor of. Denver is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 30 points or more in three straight games while Dallas is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in its last game. 9* (434) Dallas Cowboys
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10-06-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Tennessee Titans +3 | 26-17 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 33 m | Show | |
Kansas City is coming off another impressive win as it took care of the Giants 31-7 to improve to 4-0 on the season. Did I say impressive? Of the five remaining undefeated teams in the NFL, I consider the Chiefs to be the worst of the bunch. Their scoring differential is third best but even that is not very good considering they have played the easiest schedule in the NFL against teams that combined are 3-13. Sure, four of those losses came against Kansas City but those teams are just 3-9 in their other 12 games and that includes a head-to-head matchup. I do not believe in trap games but with the undefeated record and the situation they are walking into, this game is begging for Chiefs money and they are getting it with 76 percent of the bets coming in on the road team. Tennessee is off to a 3-1 start and could be 4-0 as the lone loss came in overtime at Houston. Granted the Titans were probably lucky to win against San Diego but they dominated that game with a 175-yard edge so it can be looked at both ways. They picked up an easy win last week against the Jets but paid the price for it as quarterback Jake Locker got hurt and will be out for a lengthy period of time which is not good for the offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick takes over and he is not a horrible backup to have as he has plenty of experience and to his credit, he has diced up the Chiefs defense in the past so I am more than comfortable backing him here. A bigger reason for that is the fact that the titans are ranked 29th in total offense to begin with so there will not be much of a dropoff in quarterback in my opinion. The offense has not turned the ball over which has played a big role in the offense getting good scoring chances and hopefully they can keep that going. The defense is where the Titans are thriving as they are ninth overall and seventh in scoring defense and that includes giving up yards and points in overtime. The Chiefs have been solid on defense as well but again, the schedule has a lot to do with it. This is still a pedestrian team on offense as they are 17th overall and scoring is up due to excellent field possession. We play on underdogs or pickems with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better on the season, after two consecutive game where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1983 while Kansas City is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games. 9* (414) Tennessee Titans
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10-06-13 | New England Patriots v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 74 h 43 m | Show |
We played against the Bengals last week in Cleveland and they managed only two field goals in a 17-6 loss. Part of the reason for going against them was due to their big win the previous week over Green Bay and part of the reason for playing them this week is due to the loss suffered last Sunday. Cincinnati is sitting at 2-2 and could be 3-1 as it blew a late lead against the Bears in its season opener but it is still tied atop the AFC North with the Ravens and Browns. Making this home game even more important is the fact that four of Cincinnati's next five games are on the road so protecting the home field where it is 5-1 its last six games is imperative. The Bengals offense has struggled the last two games but I believe that changes here. The Patriots improved to 4-0 with their win over Atlanta last Sunday night and while we were on the wrong side of that one, it was one of those games that could have gone either way. The Patriots were outgained, albeit slightly, by Atlanta and they have been outgained in two of their four games thus far. New England has been solid as a road underdog over the last few years but considering where this line has gone from its opening is a signal as 89 percent of the ATS wagers in this game have gone on New England but the line has gone the opposite direction. Look for the Bengals to try and establish the run to set up the passing game. With Patriots defensive lineman Vince Wilfork out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, stopping Cincinnati's run game will be New England's biggest challenge. In his past six games at home, Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has completed 112 of 181 passes (61.9 percent) for 1,208 yards passing with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions for a passer rating of 99.0. On the other side, the Patriots are still not sure if wide receiver Danny Amendola and tight end Rob Gronkowski will be active but either way, the Patriots will find it tough going on offense. The Cincinnati defense is ranked 13th in the league in total defense (334 ypg), 13th against the pass (235 ypg) and 10th against the run (99 ypg). We play against road underdogs or pickems after scoring 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 41-15 ATS (73.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (420) Cincinnati Bengals
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10-06-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears +1 | Top | 26-18 | Loss | -105 | 74 h 42 m | Show |
We easily won with New Orleans on Monday night as it took care of Miami at home to improve to 4-0 on the season. While the Saints are making a move back into the elite status of the league and once again in the Super Bowl talk, this game does not set up well for them. Three of their wins have come at home while the only road victory was a tow-point win at lowly Tampa Bay and while they should have won that game by more, the fact is they didn't as playing on the road has not been easy for New Orleans. The Saints could be caught in a letdown/lookahead as coming off a primetime win over another undefeated team, they have a game at New England next week. The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in the first of back-to-back road games. Chicago suffered its first loss of the season last week in Detroit and while we were on the right side of that ticket, it did get a little too close for comfort. The Bears actually won the yardage battle but a lot of that came late as quarterback Jay Cutler finally woke up after three interceptions and trailing 40-16 but it was too little, too late. I expect a big bounceback from him and from the defense and with a game against the disappointing Giants on deck, there will be full focus this Sunday. Additionally, after playing two straight road games, a trip back home is what they need and they are 5-1 over their last six games coming off at least two straight road games. While the Saints offense gets the praise, it is the defense that has really done a remarkable job under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. They are sixth in total defense and fifth in scoring defense and while they shut down Atlanta in the opener, the last three games have not exactly been against offensive juggernauts. The Bears are third in the NFL in scoring offense and they have faced some strong defenses along the way. While the passing game is strong, Matt Forte has continued to be a big-play threat either running the ball or as a back out of the backfield and he is averaging 4.6 ypc. Surprisingly, the Chicago defense has been fairly tame as poor tackling Sunday plagued a defense that is ranked 20th with 384.0 ypg allowed and 26th with 28.5 ppg allowed. They have forced 14 turnovers which could be the key here. Chicago has an excellent situation on its side as we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off three or more consecutive overs while averaging 27 or more ppg. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (426) Chicago Bears
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10-03-13 | Buffalo Bills v. Cleveland Browns -4 | Top | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
Two surprising teams square off on Thursday as the Bills and Browns both come into this game with a 2-2 record following big wins over playoff teams. Buffalo has adjusted well to the new coaching staff and schemes but while the two losses have been by a combined nine points, the two victories have been by just four points so feasibly, this team could be sitting at 1-3 or even 0-4 based on a couple plays. Both wins have come at home with a loss coming in their only road and hitting the highway has not been a good thing for the Bills as they are 2-14 over their last 16 road games. Playing on a short week after facing the defending Super Bowl champions does not help and even though we saw the 49ers win on the road last week, the home team has a significant edge on Thursday night games. Cleveland has won two straight games to get back to .500 and it has been the more dominating of the two teams. The Browns have outgained three of four opponents while getting outgained by Baltimore by just 37 yards. Overall, they are +32.3 in yardage margin, compared to the bills which are -49.7 ypg in margin. Playing at home on a short week only helps as does the fact Cleveland will be out for some revenge after losing here 53 weeks ago against Buffalo. A win would put the Browns over. 500 for the first time since the third game of the 2011 season and they have not won three of their first five games in 12 seasons. This is their only primetime game this season so they will be out making the most of it. While Brian Hoyer has gotten most of the publicity for the Browns, and it is well deserved, it is the defense that is making the difference. On Sunday, the Browns held the Bengals to just two field goals and 63 rushing yards in a 17-6 win. The previous week, the Browns limited Adrian Peterson to 88 yards and forced three key turnovers in a 31-27 victory. Overall, they have held three of four opponents to season lows in yardage. And the rushing defense has been as it best as through four games, the Browns are allowing just 2.9 ypc which is lowest in the NFL and they are the only defense not to give up a run of 15 yards or longer. Cleveland is capable of forcing opponents into a one-dimensional game plan that is difficult to sustain against a defense that is stout at the point of attack and explosive on the edges. Consequently, the Browns rank third in the NFL in total defense and eighth in points allowed. Buffalo is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games road after playing a game at home, losing those games by an average 17.5 ppg. Cleveland meanwhile is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games coming off a win against a divisional opponent as an underdog. 10* (302) Cleveland Browns
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09-30-13 | Miami Dolphins v. New Orleans Saints -7 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 102 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Seven teams were sitting at 3-0 heading into the weekend and two square off on Monday night as the Dolphins and Saints look to remain undefeated. Miami is the bigger surprise at 3-0 even though expectations were risen after it spent a ton of money in the offseason. Still, being undefeated is a shock to some considering the first two wins came on the road followed up by a win over the Falcons last week. Personally I am not sold on this team quite yet despite being eighth in the NFL in scoring defense and 11th in scoring offense. Why? Miami is just 22nd in total defense and 26th in total offense and it has been outgained in each of its three games. This includes being outrushed in all three games and being outpassed in two of those so the Dolphins can be considered the worst of the undefeated teams with the Bears close by. And the Bears are no longer in that group after Sunday. The fact that New Orleans is undefeated is not really a surprise despite it having a poor season a year ago. The absence of head coach Sean Payton was a huge part of it but with him being back and a new defense that has improved immensely, the Saints are looking to rise back into the elite category of the NFL. The schedule has been pretty tame with the Cardinals and Buccaneers being the last two victories and while the win over Atlanta is not looking as good as once thought, it is still a very good start. New Orleans is middle of the pack in scoring offense as some costly turnovers have taken place at the wrong time. The Saints are sixth in total offense and most of that production has taken place at home where they have been dominant once again. The defense has been the surprise though as they are fourth overall and fifth in scoring. Pressuring the quarterback has been paying off and will do so once again here as the Dolphins offensive line is in shambles. While New Orleans has only sacked opposing quarterbacks eight times, the Saints have hit them 11 times and hurried them another 39 times. As brought up in the Seattle analysis from Sunday, the fact that Miami is 3-0 against the number this season actually brings up an interesting contrarian angle. Since 2004, 32 teams have opened the season a perfect 3-0 ATS but rarely do they make it to 4-0 ATS as those teams have gone a combined 11-21 ATS (34.4 percent) in that fourth game. The Saints have won their last eight Monday Night Football games and have won 10 consecutive primetime home matchups. In those ten games, the Saints have outscored their opponents 356-176. New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 10* (226) New Orleans Saints
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09-29-13 | New England Patriots v. Atlanta Falcons -1 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -120 | 81 h 6 m | Show |
It is no surprise that the Patriots are off to a 3-0 start or is it? This is actually the first time since 2007 that they have started off the season 3-0 and that was the year they went 18-0 before losing to the Giants in the Super Bowl. That team won its first three games by 79 points combined while the 2013 New England team has won its first three games by just 25 points combined and two of the wins have been by two and three points. Now things will be a lot tougher and we are clearly seeing that in the number as the Patriots go from being favorites by more than a touchdown in each of their first three games to being an underdog this week. A slight underdog but an underdog nonetheless. The Falcons came close to making it to the Super Bowl last season but just fell short so expectations are very high this season. Things have not started according to plan as Atlanta is just 1-2 but the schedule has not been in its favor as the Falcons have played the seventh toughest schedule and the Patriots will be the third team so far on the slate that is off to a 3-0 start. The two losses to the other two undefeated teams could have gone either way so feasibly they could be sitting at 3-0 right now. That makes this game that much bigger as getting off to a 1-3 start will make things difficult to even think about winning the division let alone grabbing the home field edge in the playoffs even though it is still very early. The Patriots meanwhile have played the easiest schedule in the league so far and this will be just their second road game of the year after opening in Buffalo. The Patriots offense has been average at best and it is the running game that has been the catalyst as quarterback Tom Brady is still getting used to his new receiving corps. It will be key for the Falcons to slow down the running game and all indications say they will as through three games, Atlanta's defense is holding opponents to 79.0 ypg and 3.8 ypc, which puts the Falcons back in the top 10 in terms of run defense. On the other side, the explosive Falcons offense will be facing a tough New England defense but playing at home will be a big advantage there. The Falcons fall into a tremendous league-wide situation as we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (224) Atlanta Falcons
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09-29-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Cleveland Browns +5 | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 73 h 21 m | Show | |
The Browns picked up their first win of the season last week at Minnesota and they should be able to carry that over into this one. Despite being 1-2 overall, Cleveland has outgained its opponents by 59 total yards and the one game that is did not outgain its opponent, in Baltimore, it was right there and trailed by just one points midway through the fourth quarter. The victory last week came as a surprise to most as it was right after the Browns traded away Trent Richardson signaling what many considered tossing in the towel for the season already. With Pittsburgh sitting at 0-3 and Baltimore on the road this week, a win by the Browns could possibly put them into a tie for first place by the end of the weekend. This is the first of three straight home games so expect a big effort in getting the homestand started the right way. The Bengals opened the season with a tough loss at Chicago as they blew an 11-point lead against the Bears but have bounced back with two wins. Those wins were big ones as they defeated their rivals the Steelers and then last week took care of Green Bay after falling behind by 16 points and scoring the final 20 points of the game. It can be considered a misleading final score as Cincinnati was outgained by 102 total yards but benefitted from taking advantage of turnovers including scoring on a fumble return for the winning score. Now the Bengals go from a home underdog to a road favorite which is a big swing and considering the extent of two recent victories, it sets up a huge letdown spot despite the Browns being a rival. On top of that, Cincinnati hosts New England next week. he Cleveland offense put up its best showing last week in Minnesota as it tallied 409 yards of offense while scoring 31 points. Quarterback Brian Hoyer had a solid game despite three picks and he looks to carry that over in his first start at home. He has a weapon back as well. Josh Gordon came back from a two-game suspension to hit Minnesota with 168 yards from scrimmage, 146 on 10 receptions, 22 on a run. After allowing the Dolphins and Ravens to rush for only 119 yards in the first two weeks, the Browns held the reigning NFL MVP, Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson, to 88 yards and one touchdown on 25 carries. Overall, the Browns are seventh in rushing defense and an even more impressive second in carry average as they are allowing just 2.8 ypc. We play against teams coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 143-77 ATS (65 percent) since 1983. 9* (204) Cleveland Browns
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09-29-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Houston Texans +3 | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 73 h 17 m | Show | |
Seattle is off to a 3-0 start both straight up and against the spread and after two convincing home wins, it has taken over the spot as the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl as it is now less than a 2-1 favorite. The Seahawks have won their last two games by a combined 54 points but those games were at home where they have now won 10 straight games. They are a different team on the road however as they were a fumble away from possibly losing at Carolina in their season opener and going back, they are 4-7 in their last 11 true road games not counting the game played in Toronto against the Bills. Under head coach Pete Carroll, Seattle is 19-7 at home and 8-16 on the road and over that stretch it is 1-4 ATS as a road favorite (again not counting the Buffalo game). Houston is coming off a loss at Baltimore last week as the Texans fell to 2-1 on the season. They allowed a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown so while they lost by 21 points, it was a deceiving final as they actually outgained the Ravens by 28 yards. There are many that are down on this team right now as they were fortunate to win their first two games as they had to come back from a big deficit against San Diego and then were taken to overtime before winning against the Titans. The thing is however that Houston outgained those first two opponents by 186 yards and 204 yards so again we are seeing deceiving final scores. The Texans are now 0-3 ATS which is the exact opposite of the Seahawks and that is surely another reason they come in as home underdogs. Speaking of which, Houston has been a home underdog only once since 2011 (not counting the season finale in 2011 which it covered anyway) and it took care of Atlanta outright. Seattle has the top ranked defense in the NFL and everyone knows about it. The Texans meanwhile are getting a bad rap for their defense being soft yet they are ranked second in the NFL in total defense so there is not a big difference with the exception of turnover as Houston has gotten just one takeaway through three games. The fact that Seattle is 3-0 against the number this season actually brings up an interesting contrarian angle. Since 2004, 32 teams have opened the season a perfect 3-0 ATS but rarely do they make it to 4-0 ATS as those teams have gone a combined 11-21 ATS (34.4 percent) in that fourth game. That is pretty significant. Seattle is 3-18 ATS in its last 21 games coming off a home win by 21 points while the Texans are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning road record. 9* (208) Houston Texans
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09-29-13 | NY Giants +4.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 15 m | Show | |
What is wrong with the Giants? They won the Super Bowl two years ago but missed the playoffs last season and now they are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the fourth time in five years after a 0-3 start. Starting 0-4 and we can stick a fork in them but a 1-3 start is not as bad as it sounds considering how weak the NFC East is this season. If ever there is a must win game in Week Four of the NFL season, this is it. Last week was an absolute nightmare as the Giants as the game was over before it really started as quarterback Eli Manning was sacked six times in the first nine plays of the game. That is unbelievable and things will not be any easier here but you have to think that New York will come in with full focus this week after all of the heat it has taken this past week. While it never should used as an excuse, the fact that Tom Coughlin lost his brother last week did not help matters as it must have been extremely difficult in putting a gameplan together in the wake of that. While the Giants are off to a surprising 0-3 start, the Chiefs are off to a surprising 3-0 start. Winning at Jacksonville was expected and Kansas City dominated that game and while wins against Dallas and Philadelphia were very solid ones, the Chiefs were outgained in both of those contests. So what has been the difference? Turnovers. Kansas City has created nine turnovers on defense while the offense has yet to turn it over. That is pretty amazing considering the Chiefs were dead last in the AFC in turnover margin last year at -24 and through three games they were -8 in turnover margin so it is nearly a complete opposite of 2012 right now. Turnover are contagious and can be the biggest turnaround difference but this rate will not last. Conversely, the Giants are -9 in turnover margin and their 13 giveaways are easily the most in the NFL. The Giants remain confident but history is not on their side. Only three 0-3 teams (out of 115) have made the playoffs since 1990, and only one 0-4 team has done so. While they may be saying the right things, they know what is at stake. Back in 2007, they started 0-2 and won a must win game at Dallas to spark a huge turnaround to the season and one that would eventually result in a Super Bowl Championship. Not many will going that far on a limb to say a repeat of that will happen but New York is more than capable of putting together run with the veteran players it has. Kansas City is receiving a huge majority of the betting action here yet the line has moved the other way slightly. That is a take sign as well. 9* (213) New York Giants
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09-29-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +9 | Top | 37-3 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 9 m | Show |
We lost with the Jaguars last week in Seattle but I am not afraid to jump back on them here this week in what is a great spot for them as well as a horrible spot for the Colts. Jacksonville is the worst team in the league and while it is one of six teams at 0-3, it is pretty clear which team is at the bottom. The Jaguars are -64 in point differential but the worse and worse they look, the better they become at the betting markets as this line has now hit nine points in some places and while that is mostly for teaser protection, it is a great number to be on. In composition, when the Colts played here last season, they were favored by three points with Jacksonville coming off five straight losses so what has really changed since then? Indianapolis is coming off a monster win at San Francisco last week to move to 2-1 on the season as it was able to bounce back from its home loss against Miami the previous week. The Colts now hit the road again before heading back home next week to take on Seattle so this is the classic example of a letdown/lookahead situation even though this is a divisional game. While we have already touched on the value of this line from a Jacksonville perspective, we can look at the value going against the Colts as they are making an incredible 20-point in the spread from last week and that is usually unheard of in the NFL. Still, it comes as no surprise that 82 percent of the action is on the Colts yet the line has not budged in most places. Clearly the Colts are the better team in this matchup but as we all know, the better teams do not always win in this league. Winning against the spread in the NFL usually means winning ugly and that is the case here. Indianapolis can escape with a victory and that is just fine as we do not need the Jaguars outright anyway. We have three solid angles that favor the Jaguars. First, we play against teams after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg, after allowing 40 points or more last game. This situation is 48-19 ATS (71.6 percent) since 1983. Third, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 14 or fewer ppg, after a loss by 28 or more points. This situation is 56-24 ATS (70 percent) since 1983. 10* (206) Jacksonville Jaguars
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09-29-13 | Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions -3 | Top | 32-40 | Win | 102 | 74 h 52 m | Show |
Chicago is off to a 3-0 start for the first time since 2010 before it lost in Week Four in its second road game of the season and I am seeing a repeat of that here. The Bears are lucky to be undefeated right now. They rallied from an 11-point deficit against the Bengals in their season opener and then the next week against the Vikings, they waited until the final seconds to stage the rally as they scored the game-winning touchdown with 10 seconds remaining. The Bears have become the hunted now and will have a tough tine in looking for their first 4-0 start in seven years. Detroit can grab a share of the early division lead Sunday after earning its first-ever win at Washington last week, 27-20. that pushed Detroit to 2-1 on the season and made up for a tough loss at Arizona the previous week and now the Lions head back home in search of their first two-game winning streak since the middle part of last season. 2012 was a nightmare as after making the playoffs the previous year, Detroit fell to 4-12 last season but were certainly one of the better 4-12 teams in recent memory considering the Lions outgained their opponents in 11 of those 16 games. The issue was turnovers as Detroit had only one game where the offense did not commit one while the defense had six games of not taking one away. Five more games resulted in just one takeaway and overall it was -16 in turnover differential with only the Eagles and Chiefs being worse. That is why this year's version is considered a sleeper by many to make a playoff run. This is a very big game as it is the only home game in a five-game stretch including a game at Green Bay next week. The Chicago defense has been very opportunistic even it has not been very dominating overall. The Bears are tied for 19th in scoring defense at 24.7 ppg and are ranked 25th in total defense at 383.0 ypg but they've scored three defensive touchdowns in the last two games while recovering six fumbles and intercepting five passes. Last week was a prime example of how turnovers can make the difference in the game as Chicago won the turnover battle against the Steelers 5-0. The Bears won by 17 points but were outgained by 201 total yards and they are the lone undefeated team in the NFL that is actually getting outgained on the season. The Bears are 4-18 ATS in their last 22 games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games while going 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (212) Detroit Lions
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09-26-13 | San Francisco 49ers -3 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 35-11 | Win | 100 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
It is gut check time for the 49ers. For the first time since Jim Harbaugh became head coach, San Francisco is under .500 for the season. Granted, it is only his third season but still. A loss here could be devastating even though it is early as the 49ers could feasibly find themselves three games behind Seattle in the NFC West come Sunday afternoon. A loss at Seattle was not overly shocking as it took place on the road but a home loss against the Colts in the follow up game was definitely shocking. The two games lost by a combined 46 points but San Francisco was outgained by just 83 and 82 in those games which makes us believe something is up. And it is. The 49ers lost the turnover battle 7-1 in those contests and they will not be winning many games going that, nor will many others. The Rams have an identical 1-2 record as they won at home but lost both games on the road. A return home would ideally help here but playing a Super Bowl contender coming off two losses is not what the doctor ordered. The lone St. Louis victory came against Arizona so it certainly wasn't a quality win but despite its own pooor play, don't think the 49ers are going to be taking this team lightly. St. Louis has given them fits, especially last season when they played to a tie in San Francisco while the Rams won in overtime at home in the second meeting. That game brings up a very interesting point as well. The 49ers were favored by 7.5 points then and now they are favored by just a field goal showing how the betting markets are taking this early poor start way out too seriously. There is no way the Rams have closed the gap by four points over a span of seven games where they have gone 3-4. The status for the 49ers two star defensive players in Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis is not good as Smith is in rehab and Willis has a groin injury that will keep both of them out here. That no doubt hurts the defense but the Rams have not shown much as they are 23rd in scoring offense and 18th in total offense. The running game has been putrid as St. Louis is 29th in yards and 27th in ypc average. However, defensively is where the Rams have really been bad as they are 26th in both scoring and overall and if there is a game that San Francisco can break out of its offensive woes, this is the one. The Thursday night home crowd will be loud but it will not be enough to keep the 49ers slumping. San Francisco falls into a great situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (101) San Francisco 49ers
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09-22-13 | Chicago Bears v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | 40-23 | Loss | -120 | 82 h 46 m | Show | |
We got burned by the Steelers on Monday night as they could not rebound from their opening weekend home loss to Tennessee. Pittsburgh now returns home in what is a must win situation before their season spirals out of control. Only three other 0-3 teams have made the playoffs in the last 23 years and in the rugged AFC, it will be unlikely to happen this year. The situation sets up very nicely for a bounceback victory as the home field edge will be even greater during a Sunday night game. The fact that Pittsburgh comes into this game as a home underdog is a rarity as it has happened only two other times under head coach Mike Tomlin and the Steelers won and covered both of those games. While the Steelers have not been able to break through, the Bears are off to a 2-0 start thanks to two late comebacks. They rallied from an 11-point deficit against the Bengals in their season opener and then last week against the Vikings, they waiting until the final seconds to stage the rally as they scored the game-winning touchdown with 10 seconds remaining. The wins were close and Chicago was far from dominating as it was outgained by 17 yards by Cincinnati and outgained Minnesota by just 61 yards. On top that, both of those games were at home and while the Bears were a solid 5-3 on the road last season, they are being asked to do a lot here in a very bad situation. The Steelers main problem in the first two weeks is their inability to get the ball in the endzone and they have managed to score only two offensive touchdowns on 19 drives this season. They have averaged a woeful 9.5 ppg which is fewer than all but two teams in the league and they are ranked second-to-last in the league in total offense and rushing offense. The Bears are known for defense but it has been pretty soft so far this year. They have managed to record just two sacks and 10 quarterback pressures through the first two weeks, a far cry from the eight sacks the defense had after two regular-season games in 2012. While the offense has struggled, the defense is still keeping the games close. Opposing teams passing attacks have been limited by the pressure up front and solid secondary play. Teams are only averaging 198 ypg through the air against the Steelers. We play on teams after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 132-74 ATS (64.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Steelers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after scoring 14 points or less last game. 9* (418) Pittsburgh Steelers
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09-22-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars +19 v. Seattle Seahawks | 17-45 | Loss | -107 | 79 h 59 m | Show | |
This game fits my contrarian style perfectly. The Jaguars are deemed the worst team in football and through two games they have scored a grand total of one touchdown. That alone is going to make many people think this is a crazy pick but if anything, this is a crazy line. We do not see spreads this big in the NFL very often and while it is common knowledge by now, favorites simply do not cover numbers this big. This line has crept below 20 points but I would not be surprised to see it move its way back up there by gametime and it is better knowing that 20-point or more underdogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS since 1980. Seattle comes into this game 2-0 after thumping divisional rival San Francisco last Sunday night 29-3. The Seahawks defense has allowed only 10 points thorough their first two games so common thinking is that Seattle will not be giving up much on defense here either. However, this is the NFL and we cannot use common thinking when it comes to obvious situations like this. How can the Seahawks possibly get sky high for the Jaguars after last week's huge win over the 49ers? They can't plain and simple. And with a game at Houston next week, the goal here is to just win, stay healthy and get ready for next week. To no surprise, Jacksonville is dead last in total offense and scoring offense while Seattle is first in total defense and scoring defense. That will have people thinking shutout but remember that no team is as good as they looked the previous week or as bad as they looked the previous week. While the Jaguars are not going to run all over Seattle, don't be surprised to see them score a fair amount here as defense is triggered by emotion and there will not be much of that here. Conversely, Jacksonville is ranked a respectable ninth in total defense. You will hear how Pete Carroll doesn't care about taking his foot off the gas as he will run it up when he feels he can. Don't expect that here though. Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley was the defensive coordinator in Seattle the last four years under Carroll and as much as Bradley would love win beat his former team, Carroll will not run up the score out of respect for his former coordinator. The Jaguars have a sensational league-wide situation on their side as we play against favorites after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Do we have an upset in the making? Probably not. But getting this many points in any NFL game is simply too good to pass up. 9* (413) Jacksonville Jaguars
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09-22-13 | Houston Texans v. Baltimore Ravens +2.5 | Top | 9-30 | Win | 100 | 97 h 0 m | Show |
The Ravens bounced back from their season opening loss at Denver with a home win against Cleveland this past Sunday although it was far from pretty and far from dominating. Baltimore could have easily been sidetracked from all of the Super Bowl celebrations going on but now with that in the rearview mirror, I am expecting a full focus this Sunday. The indifferent start for Baltimore has it now listed a home underdog this week which I think is the wrong role and definitely at the wrong time. Houston is off to a 2-0 starts and while it has won the yardage battle by 186 yards and 204 yards in those games, the victories have come by just a combined nine points including a win in overtime last week against the Texans. Houston has yet to make it over the hump during the playoffs as it has defeated Cincinnati in the first round each of the last two years only to lose in the next round, both of which were on the road. The Texans have been a pretty solid road team during the regular season the last two years, going 11-5 but they have gone four straight games on the highway without covering. I think the big surprise here is that they are favorites on the road despite posting a 0-2 ATS record in their first two games and teams in this situation are a dismal 8-21-1 ATS when going up against a team coming off a win. It is no secret that Baltimore lost a lot during the offseason on both sides of the ball and it has definitely showed in the overall rankings through two weeks but I do not think it is anything to be alarmed by considering the Ravens will only get better with each game. To take some pressure off Joe Flacco and his receivers, the Ravens have to run the ball more. Against the Broncos, Flacco passed the ball 62 times while the one-two punch of Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce only got 21 combined carries. Against Cleveland, Flacco passed 24 times while the Ravens ran the ball only seven times in the fist half. Once balanced was achieved in the second half with a concerted effort to run the ball, Baltimore scored two second half touchdowns. While the Texans defense gets a lot of pub, they have not performed well this season as the unit is 23rd in points allowed and while that can be skewed, it does show vulnerability as well. Ray Rice is questionable but Bernard Pierce is more than capable as makes people miss and has a career 4.5 ypc average. A real clincher is the revenge factor. Baltimore went to Houston last season and got thumped 43-13 and that was the worst loss ever for a John Harbaugh coached Ravens team. This game has been circled for 11 months. 10* (398) Baltimore Ravens
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09-22-13 | Detroit Lions v. Washington Redskins -1 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -123 | 77 h 16 m | Show |
Washington was the sexy pick to make a deep run into the playoffs this year after a great ending to last season but after a 0-2 start, people have started to get sour on the Redskins. The season is far from over and the winless start has put Washington in a desperation mode already and that actually sets up well here. We are catching a very short price with the Redskins which are back home for their first Sunday game of the season in Washington. The situation is pretty simple in that Washington needs to get off to a better start if they want any chance in this game. The Redskins have trailed by a combined score of 50-7 at halftime through the first two games so playing from behind has dealt them no chance of catching up. That changes here. The Lions opened the season with a solid home win over the Vikings before stumbling last week in Arizona. Detroit held an eight-point lead late in the third quarter but it was outscored 12-0 down the stretch to make it four straight losses on the road dating back to last season. Nonetheless, the Lions are still getting too much credit as they were favored last week and are getting a shorter than anticipated price this week which is confusing to me. Put this team on the carpet and they can compete with anyone but they are far from the best team we have seen on grass. Detroit is just 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games coming off a loss when favored including a 0-4 ATS record last season and they are also 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games against a non-divisional opponent that is coming off consecutive losses. The matchup does seem to favor the Lions as they bring in one of the top passing offenses in the league to face the worst passing defense in the NFL. The Redskins are allowing a league-worst QB rating of 135.4 but they faced an unknown Eagles offense in their first game and Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay in their second game and those are two tough matchups. I think this is the easiest of the three thus far and let's not forget the Lions will likely be without running back Reggie Bush. They were scoreless against Arizona once he left the game. On the other side, RGIII is in his third game and he could be in for a massive day. Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan is 18-6-1 ATS in his 25 games coming off consecutive losses against an opponent off a loss and Washington falls into a great situation on top of it. Play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight losses. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (404) Washington Redskins
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09-22-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Tennessee Titans -3 | Top | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 76 h 15 m | Show |
Tennessee heads back to Nashville for its home opener following what was a very successful two-game roadtrip to open the season. The Titans went into Pittsburgh and defeated the Steelers opening weekend and they had a chance to make it a sweep last week as they took Houston into overtime before losing on a Matt Schaub touchdown pass. The offense remains a work in progress as they have yet to eclipse 250 yards of offense in a game but the defense has played good enough for them to be successful. To their credit, the titans have played two very strong defenses in the Steelers and Texans and now they square off against the 31st-ranked Chargers defense so the offense has the potential for a big game. After losing a heartbreaker against Houston on opening weekend, the Chargers did not hang their heads as they went into Philadelphia last week and defeated the Eagles with a field goal with seven seconds remaining. Now San Diego has to head back east once again putting it in a tough situation coming off that big win. Quarterback Philip Rivers seems reenergized as he is having a solid season through two games, throwing for 614 yards with seven touchdowns and just one interception. He will be without Malcolm Floyd however who suffered a neck injury last week after putting up 102 receiving yards before going down. That is a big loss. While the Titans offense has been slowed, the play of quarterback Jake Locker last week was solid. He led two long scoring drives in the game and capped each of them with a touchdown pass. His six-yard touchdown connection with Kendall Wright in the first quarter completed an 80-yard drive, and in the fourth quarter, he directed a 99-yard march that ended with a 10-yard touchdown pass to tight end Delanie Walker. San Diego is dead last in the league in passing defense but it doesn't end there as the Chargers are allowing 4.3 ypc on the ground, and the Titans have made it clear that they will feed running back Chris Johnson the ball. Getting him going will set up the passing game even more. While history means little, the Chargers have won nine straight meetings in this series but it is the one last year that the Titans remember as they were slammed in San Diego 38-10 while getting outgained by over 200 total yards. Floyd had six receptions for 109 yards in that game but again, he will be out for this one. Taking care of the ball will be important for the Titans as they have yet to turn it over this season. The Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up victory while Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in its previous game. Additionally, San Diego is 0-4 ATS in its last four games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (392) Tennessee Titans
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09-19-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles -3 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -117 | 35 h 22 m | Show |
The Eagles looked great in their opener at Washington last Monday as they stormed out of the gates on offense and never looked back to pick up a season opening win. Things were not as good last week in their home opener despite another big day on offense. Philadelphia racked up 511 total yards of offense and after spotting San Diego to a 13-3 lead, it was able to come back and take the lead midway through the fourth quarter but the defense could not hold as the Chargers kicked the game winning field goal with seven seconds remaining. After two weeks, the offense is ranked third in scoring and second overall but the issue remains with the defense as the Eagles are 28th in scoring defense and 30th in total defense. Playing two pretty potent offenses has not helped matters but I expect the stop unit to tighten up this week. The Chiefs are off to a 2-0 start under new head coach Andy Reid as he makes his return to Philadelphia. Kansas City definitely got a scheduling break as it was able to open the season against lowly Jacksonville and then played its home opener against Dallas which was coming off a huge Sunday night win against the Giants the previous week. The Chiefs were outgained slightly against the Cowboys but the defense did its job for a second straight week. The offense though remains a work in progress with new quarterback Alex Smith. He has been very efficient with a 94.7 passer rating and while Kansas City is 16th in the NFL in scoring offense, it is just 26th in total offense which is a big reason I feel the Eagles will be able to improve immensely on defense this week. Kansas City is second in the NFL in rushing defense however part of that is due to it has seen the fewest rushing attempts of any team in the league. After the Eagles put up 263 yards on the ground in Washington, they came back and rushed for just 89 yards against San Diego but they did run the ball just 20 times. Overall, Philadelphia is averaging a healthy 5.1 ypc which is fifth best in the NFL and as long as it gets back to a balanced attack from not having to play catch up, the Chiefs could be in for a long night. The Chiefs have yet to commit a turnover this season which is another big reason they are off to an undefeated start. That will not last. The Eagles have not covered a home game since the season finale two years ago as they are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games at home and that is helping keep this line down to just a field goal. While the big story is Reid coming back to Philadelphia, it means absolutely nothing in this matchup and I expect the Eagles top come out strong and force the Chiefs to play catch up this time. 10* (302) Philadelphia Eagles
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09-16-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The Steelers are coming off a miserable game as they lost at home against Tennessee 16-9. it looked as though things would be going their way after the Titans were called for a safety on the opening kickoff however Pittsburgh would go scoreless on offense for the entire game until it scored a touchdown with 1:23 remaining. It was certainly a performance that doesn't bring a lot of confidence into this game but the good thing is that there is no where to go but up. The loss of center Maurkice Pouncey is no doubt a huge one and that puts more pressure on the offensive line but I expect the unit to step up in his absence. This is a great example of overreacting to the first week of play as the Steelers looked bad to the public therefore they are not going to be a popular pick tonight which is just the way I like it. While the Steelers were losing at home, the Bengals looked as though they were going to win in Chicago as they took a 21-10 lead with midway through the third quarter but then both units shut down. After taking that 11-point lead, the Bengals' final three drives all resulted in three-and-outs while the defense allowed drives 81 and 80 yards with both of those being turned into touchdowns. It was a tough way to lose and while the obvious thinking here is that Cincinnati bounces back, I'm not so certain of that. It will be a great home environment for sure but I do not think the Bengals should be laying this high of a number. In Marvin Lewis' 11 seasons as head coach, the Bengals have been favored just twice against Pittsburgh and in both games, the Steelers won outright. While the Steelers offense took a lot of the blame in the loss last week, the defense did not get a lot of credit. They allowed just one play of longer than 15 yards, and they shut down the Titans' running game, allowing only 112 yards on 42 carries (2.7 ypc). The Bengals are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games coming off a loss by three points or less. Pittsburgh meanwhile is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games coming off a loss and after scoring 15 points or fewer, it is 9-3 ATS in its next game. This is a huge game for both sides as neither team can afford a 0-2 start as getting to the playoffs with that record is a stretch, even this early in the season. The Steelers have never started a season 0-2 during Mike Tomlin's tenure as head coach, and they don't want to start now. The thing here is that we are getting an inflated number here in a divisional matchup that easily could come down to the last possession. 10* (223) Pittsburgh Steelers
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09-15-13 | Denver Broncos v. NY Giants +5 | Top | 41-23 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 29 m | Show |
Denver heads to New York for the Manning Bowl and if you can get past the hype for this one, we have a very good situation on our hands. I've stated it before as teams are not as good as they looked in their previous game and teams are not as bad as they looked in their previous game. That is the case in this matchup. Taking nothing away from what Peyton Manning and the Broncos did against Baltimore last Thursday night but some are already crowning them Super Bowl Champions. That was a big game for Denver as it was out for revenge and it took care of that. Now the Broncos hit the road where they were 6-2 last season but four of those wins came against teams that didn't even sniff the postseason. The Giants meanwhile are coming off what head coach Tom Coughlin called "one of the worst games I have ever witnessed". And he is right, New York gave the ball up six times, three fumbles and three interceptions, with two of those turnovers returned for touchdowns. The Giants still outgained the Cowboys by 147 total yards so take some for those turnovers away and New York likely wins the game which makes the game this week a completely different situation and would likely come with a different line. The loss however has provided us with not only a better line but with the public lining up on the visitor, this line could go up even more by kickoff with public money pouring in late. We have seen an early reverse line move here as the majority of the action has come in on the Broncos yet the line has come down and those are the moves we like to play. The Giants offense is going to give the Broncos some problems as Denver was never is trouble against Baltimore which had very limited options at receiver. New York had three wide receivers finish with at least 100 yards against the Cowboys, Victor Cruz with 118 yards on five catches, Hakeem Nicks with 115 yards on five catches and Rueben Randle with 101 yards on five catches. With a Denver defense that is banged up and missing others, look for the Giants to continue their offensive success. On the other side, the Giants defensive front looked much improve from a year ago, and that was with their best defensive lineman, end Jason Pierre-Paul, showing signs of rust from nearly three months of no activity following back surgery. Ping the Denver defense is impossible but slowing it down is not and that is the goal for New York. The Giants have a great situation on their side as well as we play on home teams that outscored opponents by four or more ppg last season, after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (220) New York Giants
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09-15-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 16 m | Show |
This is the classic example of fading a team that played great in the first week of the season while backing a team that looked awful. The Saints got the season off to a good start following last year's debacle as they defeated Atlanta at home in a come-from-behind victory. They spotted the Falcons a 10-0 lead before coming back to take the lead and after losing the lead early in the third quarter, came back again and held on in the final seconds. New Orleans will no doubt have its strong home field advantage back this year but playing on the road has never been easy for this team and I expect a big letdown come Sunday. The Buccaneers put up a dud in New York last Sunday as they blew a late lead no thanks to a bonehead personal foul penalty in the final second which set the Jets up for the game winning field goal. Penalties were the story as Tampa Bay committed 13 of them for 102 yards and it is tough to win any game no matter the situation when that happens. Now the Buccaneers go from a road favorite to a home underdog this week which is a very big swing over the course of just one week. Tampa Bay needs to apply pressure to Drew Brees in order to slow him down and while that was unheard of last year in the two losses, things could be different here. The pass rush was the Buccaneers weakness last season but they showed Sunday they are turning that into a strength. Tampa's blitzing linebackers hit Jets quarterback Geno Smith all day, sacking him five times and forcing a fumble. The New Orleans defense allowed just 17 points against the Falcons but did allow 367 total yards. The new look Saints defense will be the wild card in the early part of the season and it will be up to Tampa Bay to balance things out. Josh Freeman did not look very good last week but a return home should help. He posted a 72.3 passer rating on the road last year but that jumped to 91.5 in eight home games. Additionally, running back Doug Martin, who was a non-factor last week, needs a breakout game to keep the defense honest. The Saints are just 3-16 ATS in their last 19 games against winless opponents from Game Two on while Tampa Bay is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. The Buccaneers racked up 513 total yards in the home loss to the Saints last year and it will not be a surprise if that offense busts out again. 10* (214) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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09-15-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -125 | 72 h 19 m | Show |
I like going against teams that are coming off big wins on national television the previous week as not only does it provide the possibility for a letdown but it also gets the public wanting to go right back on them. We won with the Cowboys last Sunday night as they defeated New York by five points in what was one of the uglier games of opening weekend. Dallas benefitted from six Giants turnovers, two of which were returned for scores so it was fortunate in that regard. The Cowboys were outgained by 147 total yards so this is the prime example of a deceiving final score. We will surely take the win last week but we are in an even better position this week by fading the "false winner" from winner from last week. Kansas City is coming off an easy win over the Jaguars last Sunday as the defense did not allow a point as the only points given up came from a blocked punt for a safety. Jacksonville is clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL so a lot of people will take that Chiefs win and say there was nothing special about it. While it was definitely a game they should have won, they won it resoundingly which is a big part of it. Had Kansas City just snuck by, we would not be as high on them this week but because of the lopsided win, we feel more confident and even more so heading back to Kansas City for their home opener. The Chiefs have a pretty solid edge in coaching here as well. Andy Reid has a very good understanding of the Cowboys after spending many years in Philadelphia and playing them twice a year. Including the playoffs, Reid went 17-12 against the Cowboys during his 14 seasons coaching the Eagles. WE saw some early reverse line movement as the big percentage of bets were on the Cowboys yet the line moved the other way. Once the public gets involved, we should see this number get back down below three every where so I would suggest holding off as I see this line going one way only and that is down. The Chiefs have a solid situation on their side as well as we play on favorites in the first two weeks of the year, after closing out last season with three or more straight ATS losses. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Dallas has not been very good in this situation as it is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games following a win while going 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (210) Kansas City Chiefs
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09-09-13 | Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Last night, we got our first glimpse of what the NFC East could be like this season and it wasn't pretty as Dallas and New York put forth a very ugly effort. Tonight, the other two teams square off as the new look Eagles head to Washington to take on the projected divisional championship by the majority. The big storyline for Washington is quarterback Robert Griffin III who is back in the starting lineup after tearing his ACL just over eight months ago. He says he is ready and that he would not be out there otherwise and that I believe. But while his knee may be back to full health, he will be showing some rust as he did not take a snap during the preseason which puts him in a tough spot here. On the other side, the Eagles brought in Chip Kelly from Oregon and with him comes a brand new system which is obviously tricky to pick up right away. But I still give that edge to Philadelphia as while it may take time to learn, it is impossible for a defense to prepare for something it has never seen before. The Redskins can look at all the preseason film they want. But Kelly, like most NFL coaches, didn't give much away in his game-planning for those contests. In six career starts against Washington, Michael Vick is 3-1 with 805 passing yards, eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. He has also ran for two touchdowns, while rushing for over 100 yards. The big game could come from LeSean McCoy however. He looked unstoppable in the preseason in Kelly's new offense, and he will be utilized much more than he was in Andy Reid's pass happy west coast offense. The Eagles lost both meetings a year ago and after a disastrous 4-12 season, they will be out to open the Kelly era with a victory and while motivation will not be lacking on the other side, Philadelphia has more answers to the questions coming into this one. Additionally, the Redskins defense puts Philadelphia into a solid situation where we play against favorites in a divisional matchup that allowed 5.4 yppl or more last season. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Going back to last season, the Redskins have been the much better team against the spread and because of their 4-0 preseason, I feel the value is on the side of the Eagles as that hook on top of the field goal is huge in my opinion. 10* (479) Philadelphia Eagles
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09-08-13 | NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | 31-36 | Win | 100 | 57 h 44 m | Show | |
The Giants and Cowboys battle on Sunday night in a big divisional game right out of the gate. Neither team lit it up during the preseason as both went 1-3 but those games cannot be read into too much. Dallas is coming off consecutive 8-8 seasons and has not made the playoffs since 2009 so head coach Jason Garrett is firmly sitting in the hot seat right now. As is the case every year, expectations are high but this could be the year Dallas finally breaks through and I believe it comes down to the defense. And it is that defense that will cause headaches for the Giants. Under new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, who returns to the NFL after four years at the college ranks, the Cowboys have switched from their longtime 3-4 defensive philosophy to a 4-3 base. The Tampa 2 as it has been commonly referred to has actually been a nightmare scheme for Eli Manning to go against as he has a passer rating of 90.0 or better only twice in 12 games against the Tampa 2. Additionally, he has passed for more than 200 yards only three times. Things could turn from bad to worse because of his offensive line. They lost starting right tackle David Diehl and starting center David Baas to injury two weeks ago and have had to do a lot of reshuffling. This year's first-round pick, Justin Pugh, is now the starting right tackle. Left guard Kevin Boothe moved inside to play center, and James Brewer, a fourth-round pick from 2011, is starting at left guard. The Giants defense meanwhile is a work in progress still. After having 48 sacks in 2011, they had just 33 last year and their secondary is a mess so Tony Romo could be in store for a big game if his protection holds up. The loss of safety Stevie Brown has not made enough noise as his loss is absolutely huge in the secondary. Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul is listed as questionable but he has been practicing so he should play but he is not close to 100 percent. Based on historical trends, the Giants would be the easy play here as the Cowboys are a dreadful 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games and last season they were a dismal 0-6 ATS as home favorites. It is also interesting to note that the Giants have never lost in the Cowboys new home as they are a perfect 4-0 at AT&T Stadium so motivation to end that drought will be on the side of the Cowboys. I am not a fan of the hook in this line but I don't think it comes into play tonight as the Cowboys take advantage of the matchups and finally break through in their new stadium. 9* (478) Dallas Cowboys
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09-08-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Cleveland Browns +1 | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 22 m | Show | |
Miami is a sleeper pick in the AFC by many and even ESPN the Magazine has the Dolphins winning the division following a 7-9 season. The only possible way is if the Patriots implode as it is the weakest division in football and despite some solid offseason acquisitions, I really do not see much coming from this team. The Dolphins spent $200 million but part of that went to tight end Dustin Keller who is now injured and lost for the season. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill should be better than his rookie campaign and he does heave weapons around him but this is far from an explosive unit. Defensively, Miami lost its top two tacklers and the cornerback satiation remains a question mark. If there is a sleeper team in the AFC, I would give that nod to Cleveland over Miami. This team has not won more than five games in a season since 2007 but it will be up to one player to change that. It was not a good rookie season for Brandon Weeden and as a matter of fact, it was pretty horrible. That can be expected by rookies although many have taken the NFL by storm in their rookie seasons. However, I think he is on for a rebound season and head coach Rob Chudzinski said he is "right on track". In three exhibition games, he completed 30-50 passes (60 percent) for 334 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions and finishing with a passer rating of 99.9. He is under a new coaching staff and while that hurts some quarterbacks making a big change, he is more comfortable with the vertical, downfield passing game offensive coordinator Norv Turner has implemented. On defense, the Browns will be more aggressive under new defensive coordinator Ray Horton and Cleveland is expected to blitz much more often in 2013, a philosophy helped by the off-season acquisition of Paul Kruger. Solid linebackers and a good secondary should improve the entire defense this season. The Browns amazingly have gone 1-13 in season openers since coming back to Cleveland including a 1-12 record at home. Think this opener is important? Cornerback Joe Haden, who is 0-3 in season openers, captured the mood of the locker room on Wednesday. "It's not a kill shot (if we lose), but we have to get over that hump," he said. "It's not gonna be, 'Ok, let's get the next one. Let's get the next one.' We have to win this first game." We are catching a very good number as a win means a cover and with the new regime in place, we can expect a huge home field advantage on Sunday that carries the Browns to victory. 9* (466) Cleveland Browns
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09-08-13 | Oakland Raiders +10.5 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
Week One of the regular season can be a tricky one for both bettors and linesmakers. Setting the lines is tough as the main parameters are based on last season's performances and this year's expectations and this line is clearly taking those into account. The Colts had one of the best turnaround seasons ever as they went from going 2-14 in 2011 to 11-5 in 2012 and earning a playoff berth. Indianapolis is now back on the map and expectations are high once again but as good as the Colts were last season, they were never favored even close to what they are favored by in Week One against the Raiders. I'm not saying last year was a fluke but of the 11 wins Indianapolis had, six of those came by four points or fewer while another came in overtime by six points. Adding to this, the Colts became the first team in NFL history to win 11 or more games during the regular season while being outscored by their opponents. The Colts covered 11 games last season but six of those were as underdogs and the five they covered as favorites, they were a 4.5-point chalk or less each time. The Raiders are not expected to be a very good team this season as they have one of the lowest regular season win totals which is 5.5. They went 4-12 last season which after two straight 8-8 seasons so they are definitely going the wrong way but this is the NFL and strange things can happen, case in point the Colts last season. Oakland was not very good on the road, going 1-7 but again all of this is playing into this line which is why it is as high as it is. Looking at matchups, stopping the Colts offense and quarterback Andrew Luck is not an easy task but if ever there is a matchup that suits the Raiders, this is it. Their secondary is looking very good as Charles Woodson, D.J. Hayden, Tracy Porter, and Mike Jenkins form a great unit. The Colts are thin in the backfield so the Raiders should see a lot of throws from Luck and let's not forget, he had 18 interceptions a year ago. On the other side, Terrelle Pryor will get the start and while he has proven nothing, the read-option he will utilize could cause some problems for the Colts. I am a contrarian by nature, especially in the NFL, and this is the ultimate in contrarian as the public is all over the Colts which is just the way I prefer it the first week of the season. 10* (471) Oakland Raiders
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09-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Carolina Panthers +4 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 33 m | Show |
There are four home underdogs on Sunday and I feel this one is the best of the bunch. As said before, Week One of the regular season can be a tricky one for both bettors and linesmakers as setting the lines is tough with the main parameters based on last season's performances and this year's expectations. Seattle was outstanding last year by going 11-5 in the regular season and then splitting in the playoffs. The Seahawks closed by winning five straight to end the regular season and then taking out Washington in the first round of the playoffs after falling behind early before losing by two at Atlanta in the Divisional Round. They are now considered a Super Bowl contender by many and their +350 to win the NFC certainly proves that. Based on all of this, there is no way they could not be a road favorite to open the season and it has a step further as they are favored by more than a field goal. Seattle put together its second straight undefeated preseason but lest we forget that after going 4-0 last season, it opened the regular season at Arizona and lost outright as a point favorite. Now the Seahawks have to travel to the east coast for an early game and while rumor has it, they are preparing the right way for it, it is not an easy task. After closing 2011 with wins in four of their final six games, expectations were high for the Panthers last year, especially after the great rookie season Cam Newton had at quarterback. Unfortunately, Carolina would start the season 2-8 and the season was lost. The Panthers did go 5-1 over their last six games including winning their last four but this time around, expectations are not nearly as high and that helps us with public perception which ultimately helps us with the line. One huge edge for the Panthers here is the banged up Seattle defense as Bruce Irvin starts his suspension, Chris Clemons won't play while still recovering from his knee injury, Cliff Avril is nursing a hamstring, and Seattle's two starting defensive tackles are battling groin injuries. As for the Carolina defense, it improved from 2011 to 2012 and should be better this year thanks to rookies Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short who will contribute right away. I expect Newton to have a big season as he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder amid the criticism he has taken but he played as good as any quarterback in the second half of last season. Don't be surprised to see the outright win here. 10* (468) Carolina Panthers
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09-05-13 | Baltimore Ravens +7.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 27-49 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 37 m | Show |
Prior to last season when the Giants lost against Dallas on Thursday night to open the season, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers in each of the previous three years starting with Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. It needs to be noted that all three of those teams were favored and at home and the Ravens did not get the luxury of getting a home game to open the season because of a conflict with the Orioles. Baltimore was already set to host the Chicago White Sox next door at 7:05 and because of a shared parking lot, both could play the same night and a compromise could not be made. I feel the Ravens will be playing with a chip on their shoulder because of this. Since the offseason started, the Ravens, in particular linebacker Terrell Suggs, have talked about the lack of respect given the team, and head coach John Harbaugh has echoed those sentiments throughout training camp. The defending Super Bowl Champions will be out to prove the doubters wrong. Denver will no doubt be amped up for this game as this is the matchup that saw their season come to an end last year. The Broncos were 7-1 at home during the regular season with most of those being blowouts so they are obviously favored for a reason. I think the line is way too much even though it is less than the 9.5-point spread from that playoff game. Baltimore did lose a lot from last year especially on the defensive side, namely Ray Lewis and Ed Reed but I think the defense will be improved as they are bigger, faster, younger and stronger on defense and last season they weren't that great to begin with. On the other side, a sloppy preseason on offense should have no one worried as Ravens offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell says the Ravens' offense could display some different characteristics now that the games actually count. As far as the Broncos go, they are the favorites to win the Super Bowl but they have some questions as well. Defensively, they are without Von Miller and Champ Bailey isn't close to 100 percent while the loss of outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil to Baltimore is huge. Offensively, Peyton Manning is still one of the best quarterbacks around but his offensive line and running game are average at best and he will be under pressure all night. Obviously, Denver will be out for revenge but winning and covering are two different matters. 10* (451) Baltimore Ravens
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02-03-13 | Baltimore Ravens +4 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 237 h 60 m | Show |
Two weeks ago, the AFC was -3 in the Super Bowl and now the AFC that is represented by Baltimore is getting points. That line two weeks ago could have been determined by the matchup between the top seeds Denver and Atlanta but I not think the swing should be this big with the fact that Baltimore is now the AFC representative. The value is tremendous and we are backing a team getting more points that is should that is peaking at the right time.
Baltimore is certainly playing some of its best football of the season so the extra week off may have some concerned. I do not think this is a liability though and I actually think it helps the Ravens out more than anything. The Giants were in the same scenario a season ago and they ended up winning the Super Bowl. The additional week off gives Baltimore extra time to get ready for Colin Kaepernick and it will be the first team that has had two weeks to prepare for him this season. Another bonus for the extra time off for Baltimore is to rest its defense. The Ravens defense has been on field for 1,342 plays this season and since start of 2001, no defense has logged more plays in a season The Ravens have allowed a lot of yards during the playoffs, 415.0 ypg in fact, but due to the volume of plays run against them, they're allowing just 4.86 yppl, which is the lowest number among the 12 playoff teams so the defense that gets a bad rap has stepped up huge. Joe Flacco has become the first quarterback in NFL history to win six playoff games on the road and this season he has been exceptional. He has completed 51-93 pass attempts for 853 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions for a passer rating of 114.7. A large portion of that success can be credited to a reshuffled offensive line that has allowed just four sacks this postseason. I was pretty unimpressed with the 49ers against the Falcons and taking them out of San Francisco has made a big difference. The utilization of the no-huddle offense has simplified the game for Flacco while producing a better rhythm and tempo. Consequently, the Ravens have blown through the playoffs behind an offense that is far more explosive and diverse than the regular-season version. Because the offensive line has been so good, the 49ers will not have much success getting to Flacco and that is huge as the San Francisco pass defense is only good when the defensive line can apply pressure. On the other side, the 49ers will utilize a combination of zone-read running and play-action passing against a Ravens defense that struggled to contain a similar offensive attack run by Robert Griffin III and the Washington Redskins in Week 14. This means nothing in my opinion as the Ravens are a difference defense now. They are playing at a much higher level and it cannot be understated that Baltimore was not even close to 100 percent healthy in that game as it is now. If this is a close game toward the end of the game, Baltimore has a huge edge in my opinion. Even though he is just a rookie, Ravens kicker Justin Tucker has missed only three field goals all season long and is a perfect 4-4 from beyond 50 yards. Conversely, David Akers for San Francisco hit the upright on a FG attempt against the Falcons and nearly was replaced before the game. He has not attempted a field goal over 40 yards in the playoffs where he was just 9-19 during the regular season. 10* (101) Baltimore Ravens |
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01-20-13 | Baltimore Ravens +10 v. New England Patriots | Top | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 131 h 53 m | Show |
This is a rematch of not only the Week Three meeting, won by Baltimore by a point, but also a rematch of last year's AFC Championship, which the Patriots won by a field goal. New England was able to cover the inflated line against Houston last week but I do not see it happening again. In the first meeting this year, Baltimore was favored by 2.5 points which should make the Patriots about a 4.5-point favorite here based on a venue switch. Have these teams changed that much to inflate the line this much? I do not think so.
The Ravens got an improbable win in Denver thanks to a defensive gaffe by the Broncos that allowed a 71-yard touchdown pass with less than a minute remaining to send the game into overtime. Still, Baltimore has to be given a lot of credit to be able to go into Denver and take down the top seed that was riding an 11-game winning streak. The question is, can the Ravens get up once again and do the same? I totally expect them to as I not only expect them to keep it close, an outright win is far from out of the question. I think Baltimore is in fine shape similar to last season despite a lot of distractions and negative situations coming into the postseason. The Ravens lost several key performers to injuries, fired their offensive coordinator following their 13th game and dropped four of their final five contests heading into the playoffs. I am nit buying any of the 'Team of Destiny' talk but I do buy the fact that when teams are down and thought to be out, they tend to step up as adversity can bring out the best in players. Hats off to New England for taking out the Texans but they only outgained Houston by 32 totals yards but were able to take advantage of Houston mistakes and that doesn't mean turnovers. Matt Schaub did not play a very good game and the Texans finished 4-15 on third down and a team cannot win with that type of inconsistency. The victory over the Texans came with a cost, as star tight end Rob Gronkowski re-injured his left forearm and is out for the rest of the playoffs. The Patriots will be out for revenge but this line totally takes away any edge, if there was any at all. They actually fall into a negative situation where we play against home favorites that are revenging a loss against opponent after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Ravens have been in this situation before and have thrived, going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road playoff games while New England is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 playoff games. 10* (303) Baltimore Ravens |
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01-20-13 | San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 28-24 | Push | 0 | 127 h 30 m | Show |
The Falcons got the monkey off their backs as they were finally able to win in the playoffs which was their first postseason win since 2004. It was the first playoff victory for head coach Mike Smith and for quarterback Matt Ryan as they had come in with a 0-3 playoff record prior to the miraculous win. Blowing a 27-7 lead looked as though Atlanta was in for another decimating defeat but it was able to move down field in under 30 seconds to kick the game-winning field goal.
San Francisco was arguably rooting for Seattle so it could get to play this game at home however the matchup is much better here despite the fact it has to take to the road. The 49ers are coming off a domination of the Packers as they outgained Green Bay by 227 total yards and the game was not even as close as the 14-point margin of victory showed. They held the Packers to 352 total yards and only 17 points can be blamed on the defense as a pick six and a garbage score late upped the Green Bay scoring output. Atlanta knows it has a lot of work to be done on defense and while I do think it will be able to get over that second half debacle against the Seahawks, this unit is not very good right now. The Falcons are 24th in total yards allowed and while the point totals have been kept in check for the most part, that is largely due to turnovers which will not be easy to come by here as San Francisco turned it over on 16 times during the regular season, tied for second fewest in the NFL. On the other side, the 49ers won't get caught off-guard by Atlanta's rushing attack like the Seahawks as the Falcons rushed for a season-high 167 yards. San Francisco is third in total defense and second in scoring defense but it is the balance that really hurts opponents as the 49ers are fourth against the pass and against the run while ranking third in passing ypa and rushing ypc. Taking nothing away from Seattle's defense, but this is going to be a whole different scenario for the Falcons. We play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 370 or more ypg going up against teams allowing between 295 and 335 ypg. This situation is 53-27 ATS (66.2 percent) since 1983. San Francisco is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl while under head coach Jim Harbaugh, it is 7-0 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better. Conversely, the Falcons are 3-19 ATS in their last 22 home games coming off a home win. 10* (301) San Francisco 49ers |
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01-13-13 | Houston Texans +9.5 v. New England Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -110 | 146 h 13 m | Show |
I bet on the Patriots in the last matchup with Houston back on December 10th and it doesn't get much easier than that one as New England rolled to a 42-14 win. The betting public has not forgotten that game and with everyone still down on the Texans, they will be looking for a similar result here. Thus, the number had to be adjusted and it has been adjusted by four points which is a huge overreaction in my opinion. New England is surely one of the best teams in the NFL but this line is absurd.
The Texans won by just six points against the Bengals in their Wild Card matchup on Saturday but they dominated by more than what that score is telling us. A pick six by the Bengals was the only touchdown scored and Houston dominated by outgaining Cincinnati 420-198. Looking at just the score is not a true indication as Houston stepped up after a lethargic end to the regular season and this is still a very dangerous team on both sides of the ball. Betting against the Patriots at home in the playoffs was never a wise move as they were a perfect 4-0 from 2003 to 2007 but since then, New England is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home playoff games so while many will argue going against the Patriots at home is suicide, it is fact is not what it used to be. Playing against the Patriots coming off a bye is another myth as New England is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games with two weeks of rest, outscoring their opponents by just 3.9 ppg. The Texans are obviously playing with revenge here and while road revenge is not a great scenario to back, this one is different. Houston was absolutely embarrassed on national television and it will be out to make sure that does not happen again. The Texans fall into a great situation as well as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (115) Houston Texans |
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01-13-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons -1 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 143 h 33 m | Show | |
This is the only playoff game this week where there was not a regular season meeting between the two teams. I played against Seattle last week and I am playing against the Seahawks again this week. Washington jumped ahead 14-0 so you have to give Seattle credit for not backing down and coming all the way back to win by 10 points. They can't have all of the credit though as the injury to Robert Griffin III changed the whole dynamic of the game and we was clearly a different player after the first quarter.
Atlanta had the week and I think this is arguably the one team that benefitted the most from the first round bye. Denver, New England and San Francisco were all coming off wins while the Falcons were coming off a loss in their regular season finale, one that meant nothing by the way. They didn't exactly finish strong as they were outgained in four of their last five games so the time off was more of a good thing than anything else. At 7-1, the Falcons have a big edge at home coming off that loss. The Seahawks are riding a six-game winning streak so they clearly have the momentum edge but I will go back to the reason for playing against them last week. Again, the RGIII injury no doubt made their comeback a lot easier so while it was a road win, it was one with an asterisk. A huge run got them into the playoffs but the schedule had a lot to do with that. Seattle got out of Chicago with a win in overtime but then it played four straight games to end the season none of which were a true road game. The Falcons have been ousted in their first game of the playoff in each of the last two season so they will be playing with a chip on their should to prove the doubters wrong. Seattle is playing some of the best football in the league but it will be tough to win again traveling cross-country for a second straight week. Also, we play on home teams off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1983. 9* (114) Atlanta Falcons |
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01-12-13 | Green Bay Packers +3 v. San Francisco 49ers | 31-45 | Loss | -103 | 126 h 41 m | Show | |
This is the third instance of a team playing with revenge from a regular season loss. I do not think revenge plays more of a motivational factor in these games but what it does is provide us with possible value based on the public seeing a repeat performance plus it also provides the revenging team the ability to make adjustments. The Packers lost the opening game this season at home against San Francisco but this is a much different team now and definitely has a chance at the outright win.
The San Francisco defense gets all of the pub and for good reason as it is ranked third overall and second in points allowed. Looking at the schedule though shows the 49ers played a lot of horrible offenses and those are the ones they obviously kept in check. This is the toughest offense they have seen since Week 15 against the Patriots and while they won, the 49ers allowed 520 total yards. The Packers put up only 326 yards last week but it took its foot off the gas very early. The difference here is on the other side of the ball with the San Francisco offense against the Packers defense. Green Bay took a lot of heat for poor play on defense but it finished a respectable 11th both overall and points allowed. Things are different now though as the Packers are the healthiest they have been in a very long time. Clay Matthews is back to 100 percent as is Sam Shields but most important is the return of Charles Woodson who came back last week and adds a whole new dynamic to the defense. Colin Kaepernick will be making his first ever playoff start and I think he could be in for a long day as a turnover or two will make the ultimate difference. Look for the Packers to make him beat them through the air and I do not see that happening. The Packers have a revenge situation on their side as well as we play on road teams that are revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (111) Green Bay Packers |
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01-12-13 | Baltimore Ravens +9.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 122 h 13 m | Show |
With the favorites going a perfect 4-0 ATS in the Wild Card round, we are seeing a lot of value on some underdogs this week and this is one of them. It is no secret that the public loves this Denver team and why not? The Broncos closed on a perfect 4-0 ATS run while going 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games. Therefore, this line is inflated. Denver was a double-digit favorite in three of its last four games and while it covered all three of those, they were against teams not even sniffing the playoffs.
The kneejerk reaction for Baltimore would be it is in for an emotional letdown after taking out Indianapolis in what was Ray Lewis' last home game. If it was the regular season and the Ravens were not going to the playoffs then I will buy that but there is not going to be any sort of a letdown here in the postseason. Baltimore has proven that it can win on the road in the playoffs, going 5-3 straight up and ATS the last four years and not once has it seen a line this big. Denver went into Baltimore and smacked around the Ravens earlier this season but the spot was a horrible one for Ravens when looking back. I was on Baltimore in that game but that was more of a play against the Broncos which were riding an eight-game winning streak. Baltimore was coming off two overtime games, where it went 1-1, as well as a game against Pittsburgh sandwiched in-between which it lost by three points. The situation is a lot different this week. The Broncos have eclipsed 30 points in each of their last three games and with the week off, some of that momentum has been lost. Additionally, they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring 30 points or more in three straight games. Baltimore falls into a phenomenal league-wide situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (109) Baltimore Ravens |
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01-06-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins +3 | 24-14 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 35 m | Show | |
The Seahawks are one of the hottest teams in football right now as they have won five straight games but there is no way they should be favored in this spot. A huge run got them into the playoffs but the schedule had a lot to do with that. Seattle got out of Chicago with a win in overtime but then it played four straight games to end the season none of which were a true road game. Sure, a game against the Bills was in Toronto but it was hardly a partisan Bills crowd.
While Seattle is hot, the Redskins are even hotter so it is surprising they are getting a field goal on their home field. Washington has won seven straight games with only Denver having a longer winning streak heading into the playoffs so it is clearly playing with a ton of momentum and confidence. The Redskins finished just 5-3 at home but after a 1-3 start, they won their last four games at home. They are a very similar make up to their opponent with no big disadvantages anywhere on the field. The Seahawks are known for a strong defense but I am not 100 percent sold they have hold up in the playoffs. First off, Seattle is 23rd in the NFL in yards allowed per carry at 4.5 and that is not a good thing to be banking on as Washington has been a great rushing team this season. The Redskins are first in the league in rushing offense and second in rushing yards per carry at 5.2. I do not see them being stopped on the ground at all and that will set up the passing game and for RGIII to make things happen. Seattle is very similar on offense with a strong rushing attack and a rookie quarterback under center. The Seahawks are third in the NFL in rushing offense as Marshawn Lynch is a beast but the Redskins possess a very underrated rushing defense as they are allowing 4.2 ypc and overall they are ranked fifth in rushing defense. The passing defense is not nearly as good and as solid of a rookie season Russell Wilson is having, he struggles on the road. He has a 123.6 passer rating at home and it drops to 83.1 on the highway. The Seahawks are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Washington meanwhile is 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home this season and 6-2 ATS in its last six games following two or more consecutive wins. Also, the Redskins have a great situation on their side as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games. This situation is 47-20 ATS (70.1 percent) since 1983. 9* (108) Washington Redskins |
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01-06-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Baltimore Ravens -6.5 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 122 h 37 m | Show |
Indianapolis has been a great story this season from the huge turnaround from last season to the inspired play backing the coaching situation. Now we are at a different level and while the run was a fantastic one, this is where it comes to an end. The Colts are an extremely young team with nine starters having no playoff experience whatsoever and that is a pretty big thing at this level. Indianapolis has only three wins against teams with a winning record as it played the easiest schedule in the NFL.
Baltimore lost its regular season finale at Cincinnati but it wasn't because it was outplayed. The Ravens got the starters some work before pulling them to avoid injuries and while there is no momentum heading into the postseason, it should not be an issue here. They went 1-4 in their final five games and that will deter some people to back them but more importantly in my opinion is the fact that they outgained their last two opponents by 347 and 163 yards. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck had a great rookie season as he tossed 23 touchdowns and threw for 4,374 yards but it is hard to ignore the fact that he threw 18 interceptions and his 76.5 passer rating was seventh worst among qualified starters. The Ravens defense was not up to their usual dominating standards this season but they still finished 12th in scoring defense. Baltimore finished +9 in turnover margin, third in the AFC, while its 28 takeaways were fifth in the conference. The Colts have had the ability to win close games this season but they are -12 in turnover margin and at -30 points in scoring margin, they are the only playoff team that is in the negative. While the offense has shown some good signs, it is too inconsistent to try and make any sort of run. The Colts have failed to reach 300 total yards in any of their last four games. On the other side, the defense finished the regular season ranked 26th overall and 21st in points allowed. Baltimore will have no issues moving the ball. The Ravens have a great situation on their side as we play against teams that are coming off a win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +10 ppg. Additionally, Baltimore is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 home games versus teams that are allowing 5.65 or more yppl. A great story comes to an end in Baltimore on Sunday. 10* (106) Baltimore Ravens |
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01-05-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Houston Texans -4 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 101 h 28 m | Show |
Same time. Same matchup. Same result? I definitely believe so. The media is saying the Texans are done and after losing three of their last four games to knock themselves out of a first round bye, the public has its doubts are well and rightfully so. This is one of the most talented teams in the league on both sides of the ball and if they come out with the fire and passion that they possessed early in the season, they are going to be a tough out but obviously they need to pick it up right here.
The Bengals have been here before, literally. Cincinnati played in Houston in the Wild Card round last year and it got hammered 31-10 and that was against a banged up Texans team that was missing some key players, most notably quarterback Matt Schaub. The Bengals will be better off this year with their experience but I still do not think they have what it takes to make noise in the postseason. They beat only two playoff teams this year, Washington when it had yet to hit its stride, and Baltimore in Week 17 when the Ravens rested their starters most of the game. The gameplan should be an easy one for Houston as it needs to run the ball and should not have a problem doing so. The Texans last three losses produced an average of just 78.7 ypg on the ground and it is important to note that they are 7-0 in games this season in which Arian Foster rushed for 100-plus yards and 5-4 in the others. The Bengals rushing defense is average and while they went through a stretch of five games of not allowing 100 yards, they allowed 206 yards last week against Baltimore. The Houston defense has been ravaged with injuries this season, notably the linebacking corps but the unit is pretty healthy coming into the playoffs. Overall, the Texans are seventh in total defense and ninth in scoring defense and despite the loss to the Colts, they allowed just 265 total yards. The Bengals are ranked 22nd in total offense and that is pretty weak considering they played the second easiest schedule in the NFL this season. I do not see them having much success here. Houston falls into a solid league-wide system where we play on home teams that are coming off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 42-16 ATS (72.4 percent) since 1983. Also, the Texans are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning road record while the Bengals are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game. 10* (102) Houston Texans |
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12-30-12 | Miami Dolphins v. New England Patriots -10 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
The Patriots played a horrible game at home against San Francisco two weeks ago and instead of coming out and rebounding huge last week, they struggled again against the Jaguars. New England won but if was hardly a good effort and the Patriots know that they need a big game heading into the playoffs. New England is still in line for the top seed in the AFC but it needs both Houston and Denver to lose. The Texans play early so New England will know its fate but that doesn't mean it will quit should Houston win as a first round bye would still be a possibility should Denver lose. That scenario isn't likely but as stated, the Patriots are going to play to win and win big to get their momentum and confidence back in order. The Dolphins are not going to give in either as they have won two straight games but those both came at home against the lowly Jaguars and Bills. They have lost three straight road games and overall have been outgained in nine of their last 11 games and 11 of 16 on the season. They hung tough against New England in the first meeting and we are actually getting line value on the Patriots as they were favored by eight points in Miami and are favored by only two more points here. New England is 18-6 ATS in the last two weeks of the regular season under head coach Bill Belichick so it will again play full out for four quarters. 10* (304) New England Patriots
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12-30-12 | St. Louis Rams +11 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show |
Seattle is playing at a very high level right now so this will not be a very popular pick but the majority of mine in the NFL aren't popular anyway. The Seahawks are coming off a blowout win over San Francisco to keep their divisional hopes alive but those hopes are slim. Seattle needs to win and have San Francisco to lost at home against Arizona and that is pretty unlikely so we could see Seattle resting some players as the game progresses. It was the third straight blowout victory for the Seahawks as they have outscored their opponents 150-30 but keeping this up is extremely difficult. Because of the big wins, the line has gone through the roof and that is proven by the fact that Seattle was laying the exact same number against the Cardinals at home three weeks ago and the Rams cannot be compared to Arizona. St. Louis has closed strong and while it will not make the playoffs, finishing with a winning record is the goal right now. The Rams are 4--1 over their last five games and they have not lost on the road since mid-October at Miami, going 3-0-1 since then. This is a revenge game for Seattle but that is not a big factor and it actually goes against the Seahawks as we play against home favorites that are revenging a loss after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (331) St. Louis Rams
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12-30-12 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Tennessee Titans -4 | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
I was waiting to catch the latest injury news in this game and the news is not good for Jacksonville while it is much better for Tennessee. The Jaguars have an injury list that is loaded with players on the IR with wide receiver Cecil Shorts the latest to go on. The Jaguars five players from the defense that are listed as probable and while that means they will most likely go, they are not close to 100 percent on that side of the ball. Coming off a gallant effort against the Patriots, the defense is in for a long day Sunday. For Tennessee, it was feared Chris Johnson may not be able to go but he has been upgraded to probable after getting hurt in Green Bay last week. The Titans got pummeled against the Packers and I expect a big effort to close out the season to springboard into next year as this is a talented team but nothing went right this year. Tennessee will also be out for revenge as it was one of just two teams that the Jaguars defeated this season, and the only one since the middle of September. The Titans were embarrassed last week and players and coaches were quoted afterward that they have one game left to get it right and this is the perfect opponent for that to happen. Tennessee is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 14 points or fewer in two straight games while the Jaguars are 1-4 ATS against teams with a losing record. 9* (312) Tennessee Titans
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12-23-12 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks +1 | Top | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 81 h 58 m | Show |
I won with New England two weeks ago as it easily took care of Houston on national television. Based on that and the whole public to see, I went against the Patriots and took the 49ers and they were able to take out New England, again on national television. Now San Francisco is riding the overinflated public side angle and it is playing its second straight difficult road game in one of the most difficult venues in the league. The 49ers are a great team but not in a great position.
The Seahawks have won three straight games to climb right into the playoff picture and the divisional race for that matter. Seattle is 9-5 and it has the best record in the NFC for non-divisional leaders so getting that first Wild Card spot is looking good as it can clinch with a win. Seattle and Atlanta are the only two remaining undefeated home teams in the league heading into this week. The last home loss for the Seahawks came last season in the final home game and it was against the 49ers so it looks to be payback time. Normally, playing on a team like Seattle is a no-no as it is coming off consecutive blowout wins where it put up a ton of points and that typically is a play against situation if anything. There is a big difference here though. Those teams coming off big win tend to get overvalued next time out but that isn't the case here as the Seahawks have moved to a home underdog in some spots. As a rule, we would have to lay down a lot of points to grab Seattle but instead we are getting value this week. While the scores the past two weeks have appeared to be somewhat an anomaly, the Seahawks were trending upward in scoring even before the two blowouts. Over the past eight weeks, the Seahawks are the second-highest scoring team in the NFL at 33.4 ppg, trailing only New England, and they have scored 21 or more points in seven straight games after doing so only twice in their first seven games. The offense might have an edge again as the 49ers defense was on the field for 94 plays against New England. While San Francisco's defense gets most of the pub, Seattle is ranked third in total defense and second in scoring defense so the unit is just a solid and is that much better at home. The Seahawks fall into a great situation where we play on home teams that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 14 and 18 ppg, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (130) Seattle Seahawks |
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12-23-12 | NY Giants -1 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 14-33 | Loss | -125 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
This is a big game for both sides but more so for the Giants. New York is coming off that blowout loss in Atlanta so it needs to right the ship right now if it wants to have any chance of defending its Super Bowl title. The Giants are in a three-way tie for first place in the NFL East and a five-way tie for the second and final NFC Wild Card spot. Baltimore comes in with the better record but the Giants are the better team and in a good spot to bounce back.
It can be argued that the Ravens are also in a great spot to bounce back following their third straight loss last week against the Broncos. I disagree with that though as this is a very fragile team right now that has actually gotten away with a lot of fortunate breaks. Wins over Kansas City, Dallas and San Diego all could have gone the other way so going 3-0 right there is lucky. The Ravens have been outgained in nine of their last 10 games and that is finally starting to come back to haunt them. This is an interesting scenario where we could catch a break based on one of the early games. Should the Steelers defeat Cincinnati at home at 1:00, Baltimore locks up the division and with no chance at a first round bye, it would not be surprising to see the Ravens sit some players for at least part of this game. Obviously we can not make this play based on hoping another team wins but that could only add to the strength. Play it early as the line will likely go up quite a bit if the Steelers are winning comfortably. After starting the season strong, Baltimore has slipped considerably. It is ranked 21st in total offense and 26th in total defense and while the scoring rankings are considerably higher, it is starting to come back more into line. The Giants have been hit or miss for the last few games but with the exception of last week, the offense has been more consistent as they are 10th overall and sixth in scoring. They have not been held to single-digits in scoring since 2009 and have not been shutout since the 2005 playoffs. That being said, the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while Baltimore is now 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after one or more consecutive losses. Also, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 360 or more total ypg, after allowing 400 or more total ypg in their last three games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being close to a touchdown per game. 10* (121) New York Giants |
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12-23-12 | Washington Redskins v. Philadelphia Eagles +6.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -100 | 73 h 57 m | Show | |
The Redskins have won and covered five straight games so they are a very public team right now which is being reflected in this number. Prior to the bye week, Washington was sitting at 3-6 and pretty much left for dead but now it is right back in the playoff hunt and that is a tough situation for a team this young. The Redskins started the winning streak with a blowout win over the Eagles at home as a 3.5-point chalk and now they are a bigger favorite on the road which screams value the other way.
Philadelphia snapped an eight-game losing streak against Tampa Bay two weeks ago but could not carry that into last Thursday as the Eagles lost at home against the Bengals. It was a game they could have won as they took a lead into halftime but second half turnovers did them in. Those have been an issue all season long as we all know but we cannot let that get in the way going forward. There is nothing more than the Eagles would like than to play spoiler against a hated division rival. Another interesting dynamic is that of Eagles head coach Andy Reid. This will be his final home game in Philadelphia and there will likely be a mixed reaction to his last home game. The players though have not given up on him and they will be out to make his last home game a memorable one. "A lot of people ask, 'What do you have left to play for?'," defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins said. "Playing against the Redskins and the Giants in the last two, there's plenty to play for there." Philadelphia struggled with its running game last week against the Bengals as it managed only 42 yards on the ground which came after rushing for only 29 yards the previous week against the Buccaneers. But there is some very good news for the Eagles though as running back LeSean McCoy will start at running back on Sunday in his first game back after missing four games because of a severe concussion. That game was against the Redskins so he too will be out for some retribution. The Eagles are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games coming off a home loss by 21 or more points and that coincides with the coaching aspect of this game as they are 7-0 ATS in this situation under Reid. The Eagles also fall into a great contrarian situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg, after a loss by 14 or more points. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1983. 9* (118) Philadelphia Eagles |
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12-23-12 | Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 6-17 | Loss | -121 | 74 h 35 m | Show |
Carolina has been very impressive the last two weeks in its wins over Atlanta and San Diego but that makes this the perfect time to go against the Panthers. It is extremely difficult to justify a team that is 5-9 on the season to be favored over a team that is just one game worse by this many points. I have been on the Panthers quite a few times this season but not when they have been favored as they have lost four of five games outright when laying points and this is by far the largest they have put down this season.
Oakland is coming off an impressive win over Kansas City and while beating the Chiefs is far from quality, it gave this team some much needed confidence and momentum to try and close the season strong. The victory snapped a six-game losing skid for Oakland and the big factor was that it was able to run the ball which is a key to the Raiders success. They have not done very well on the east coast but considering this is the same line they got in Baltimore and Cincinnati, two playoff teams, the value is definitely there. The Raiders rushed for a season high 203 yards against Kansas City and it was just the fifth time all season they have surpassed even 100 yards on the ground. They are 3-2 in those games but one of those losses was at Atlanta where they lost by just a field goal. Carolina's rushing defense has been great the last two weeks but it will be put to the test here with a healthy Darren McFadden which is huge for Oakland. The Panthers have allowed over 120 yards rushing in eight of their 14 games this season. A lot of the talk now is about the resurgent Cam Newton and in all fairness, he has been exceptional over his last five games. Facing the Raiders would think to keep that going but they are coming off their best game of the season and the defense can feed off that effort. Carolina is coming off two 30-point efforts but it is still ranked 22nd in scoring offense and it hasn't been consistent enough to keep rolling like this. With a game at New Orleans to close out the season, look for a possible lookahead here as well. The Raiders fall into a great contrarian situation here as well as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 83-46 ATS (64.3 percent) since 1983. Carolina is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home games while the Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. Too many points to pass up here. 10* (105) Oakland Raiders |