Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-23-12 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
I lost playing against Dallas last week but I will again fade the Cowboys here. They were fortunate to get out of last week with a win in overtime as they got a gift wrapped interception from Ben Roethlisberger and converted that into the game winning field goal. Dallas is now tied with the Giants and Redskins for first place in the NFC East so this is no doubt a must win situation and as we all know, must wins situations do not always translate into wins with the pressure involved.
We did win on New Orleans last week as the Saints shook off two poor performances, or should say Drew Brees shook off two poor performances, and easily defeated the Buccaneers. Obviously the playoffs are a very slim option for the Saints and we saw what happened when they were able to play loose. New Orleans has won the yardage battle in each of the last three games and closing the season with a big finish is a big goal right now. But the playoffs are still a slight possibility so winning is still top priority. New Orleans needs a lot of help to get it but it really isn't very complicated. The Saints need to win this week and against Carolina next week. On top of that the Saints need Dallas to lose its final game, the Rams to lose at least once, and the Vikings, Giants, and Bears all to lose their final two games. Sure it is not very likely but with a chance still there, we will be getting a big performance out of the entire team. This includes both offense and defense, the latter showing a ton of improvement. The Saints have now gone four straight games without allowing 400 yards on defense after allowing over 400 yards in each of their first 10 games. The Cowboys meanwhile have been outgained in four of their last seven and five of their last nine games. The talent on this team is incredible yet the Cowboys have had more than a three-game winning streak only once since the start of the 2010 season. December has let them down before and I see it happening again. New Orleans is +10 points in scoring margin and could easily be 8-6, whereas Dallas is -11 points in scoring margin and is pretty fortunate to be where it is right now. Play against favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 69-33 ATS (67.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, New Orleans is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games against teams allowing a 61 percent or higher completion percentage while Dallas is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games in that same dynamic. 10* (115) New Orleans Saints |
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12-22-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Detroit Lions +4.5 | Top | 31-18 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 13 m | Show |
The Falcons are now a win away from clinching a first round bye in the playoffs after dismantling the Giants last Sunday. While the win was impressive, it can be chalked up as the Giants losing the game as they had opportunities to keep the game close early but missed a short third down conversion which led to a missed field goal and then missed a short fourth down conversion in the second quarter. This is obviously a big one for Atlanta but this is a big number to be putting down in this spot.
The Lions season has unraveled pretty quickly as after a 4-4 start, they have dropped six straight games and you can blame turnovers. Last week in their 28-point loss to the Cardinals, they had four turnovers including two interceptions returned for touchdowns. During the six-game losing streak, Detroit outgained four opponents by a total of 286 yards while it was outgained in the two other games by only 43 total yards so it is clearly playing better than that winless record indicates. Motivation plays a big part in handicapping this time of year and while Atlanta has it, we have to make sure Detroit has it as well. "Everybody in the league is the same way," Lions head coach Jim Schwartz said. "I dare you to find a team in the NFL that will say we're playing for next year or stuff like that. There's too much urgency in this league. There's too much at stake every single week for individuals as players, for coaches, for organizations. There's too much every single week to strive to win for." Despite allowing 38 points last week, the Lions defense was excellent once again as it allowed just 196 total yards. Overall, the defense is ranked 12th in the NFL while the offense is ranked second and those rankings usually do not fit a team that is 4-10. Both of those rankings are better than those of the Falcons so staying on the right side of the turnovers is what needs to be done for Detroit. Heading back home after a two-game roadtrip and on the national stage will have the Lions ready. Detroit falls into two solid situations. We play on home underdogs or pickems coming off a road loss by 14 points or more, in December games. This situation is 75-35 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. This situation is 63-30 ATS (67.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Lions are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games off a loss by 28 or more points while Atlanta is 0-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 10* (102) Detroit Lions |
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12-17-12 | NY Jets +2 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 10-14 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
We won with the Jets last Sunday against Jacksonville and we will back them again here. The two-game winning streak has put them back in the hunt for the playoffs and with a very favorable schedule to close out, they are in excellent shape but will obviously still need some help along the way. The public is still fading this team which is just fine as it gives us good value with the number in what is a must win spot. Normally, cases like that lead to inflated numbers but that is not the case here.
Tennessee lost its third straight game last week at Indianapolis and it has dropped five of its last six games to fall out of the playoff picture. The Titans will no doubt try and bring their A game here with this game being on national television but the problem is they don't have much of an A game. They have struggled on both sides of the ball but turnovers remain the biggest factor in their struggles as their 26 giveaways are tied for third most in the AFC. The Jets are no stranger to turnovers either but Tennessee has just 16 takeaways with is fifth fewest in the conference. New York has a chance to get the offense going once again as the titans are ranked 27th in the NFL in total defense and 31st in points allowed. I expected a bigger game from Mark Sanchez last week but we didn't get it but now he faces a unit ranked 26th in passing yards allowed and 24th in passing ypa allowed. The return of Braylon Edwards could be a huge boost as he is expected to play right away. New York still possesses a stout defense as it is ranked eighth overall and while the rushing defense has been a weakness, the Titans have not been able to do much of late. Running back Chris Johnson looked like he was finally out of his slump but he has been held to 175 yards on 53 carries (3.3 ypc) while failing to reach the end zone during the Titans' three-game slide. New York's defense has been excellent the past two weeks against the NFL's two worst offenses. The Jets fall into a great league-wide situation here as we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 370 or more total ypg going up against teams allowing between 295 and 335 total ypg. This situation is 51-26 ATS (66.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Tennessee is 2-9 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons and is 5-23-1 ATS in its last 29 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in its previous game. The Jets playoff hopes stay alive. 10* (331) New York Jets |
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12-16-12 | San Francisco 49ers +6 v. New England Patriots | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 86 h 5 m | Show |
The Patriots were three-point favorites over the 49ers prior to the game against Houston and now the line has increased significantly. It's a pretty safe reason why. New England looked dominant against Houston on Monday night and it will be a very heavy bet team again this week. As of Wednesday morning, over two-thirds of the action is on the Patriots according to offshore reports and while we won with them against the Texans, we will be going against them here as value has clearly hit the side of the 49ers.
San Francisco is coming off a win over Miami on Sunday and now it heads east for what has turned into a big game for both sides. The Patriots are still in the hunt for the top seed in the AFC as they own wins over both Denver and Houston, the two teams that are fighting for the top spot. On the other side, this is far from meaningless for the 49ers as they have a game at Seattle next week so should they lose here, they could be just a half-game up going into next week with the division on the line. While the Patriots were able to shred through the Houston defense on Monday, things will not be as easy here. The Texans have struggled this season against good passing teams but San Francisco is much different. Houston is 19th against the pass while San Francisco is second in that category as well as first in points allowed, ypa passing, and rushing touchdowns allowed while ranked second in total defense, passing defense and rushing defense. New England will have a tough time here. The 49ers offense is not as strong but it doesn't need to be when the defense is playing at such a high level and we will see that in this spotlight game. San Francisco is 12th in total offense and 13th in scoring offense so it is an above average unit and will face a Patriots defense that has improved in points allowed over the last few games but are still ranked 26th in total defense. The 49ers will have success running the ball as New England has allowed 100 or more yards rushing in seven straight games. San Francisco is 6-0 ATS against teams allowing 375 ypg or more, 9-1 ATS against teams allowing 7.0 or more ypa passing and 14-4 ATS against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl while the Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Also, we play on teams in the second half of the season allowing between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (329) San Francisco 49ers |
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12-16-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers -1 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -117 | 122 h 15 m | Show |
The Steelers lost a big game last week against the Chargers and it was one they could have done without. Pittsburgh is now tied with the Bengals for the second Wild Card spot in the AFC with the Jets just one game back so now it is dealing with an absolute must win scenario. The good news is that the Steelers final two games are at home against the Bengals and Browns but neither of those games are gimmies anymore. Expect a big bounceback effort from Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Dallas played a very courageous game in Cincinnati last week following the tragedy that took place the previous morning. The Cowboys rallied late for the victory and while a playoff push is a necessity, this is not going to be an easy spot. Similar to the Chiefs two weeks ago when they came together in the midst of a tragedy and won and then laid an egg the following week, I can see the same happening here as the emotions of what transpired is too much to overcome the following week. After a four-game winning streak, the Steelers have dropped three of its last four games but they outgained their opponent in each of those games. They have been outgained only twice all season and on the year, they are outgaining opponents by 79.4 ypg so they are definitely playing better than their record indicated. The difference? Turnovers. Pittsburgh has not won the turnover battle since Week Five against the Eagles as they have lost the turnover battle six times and tied it three times in the last nine games. The Cowboys meanwhile have been outgained in four of their last six and five of their last eight games. The talent on this team is incredible yet the Cowboys have had more than a two-game winning streak only once since the start of the 2010 season, which they will be striving for this week. The offense gained just 288 total yards against the Bengals last week and now they face a Steelers defense that is ranked first in the NFL, yielding just 262.4 ypg and have to go on without leading receiver Dez Bryant. The Steelers opened as underdogs and were quickly bet up to favorites with early money. It is definitely the right move and coaching will be a big factor in this game as Mike Tomlin is clearly better than Jason Garrett. Case in point, the Steelers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss while the Cowboys are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a win. That is based on preparation in the situation and the Steelers once again will have the significant edge. 10* (325) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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12-16-12 | Detroit Lions v. Arizona Cardinals +6 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 122 h 5 m | Show |
Arizona got embarrassed last Sunday in Seattle 58-0 and after starting the season 4-0, the Cardinals have dropped their last nine games and put head coach Ken Whisenhunt on the hot seat. Not many people will be touching the Cardinals this week after getting outgained by 339 total yards but that is exactly why we will be on them because it sets up the typical 'bounce' angle in the NFL as well as provide significant line value. The number here is an overreaction to that blowout loss.
The overreaction is proven by the fact that thee is no way Detroit should be favored no the road by this many points over any team. Sure the talent is there but the Lions do not know how to win at this point as they have lost five straight games including the last three by a single possession. Coming off three straight home games followed by a game at rival Green Bay where they have not won in over two decades, this team that has no hopes for the playoffs has no interest in this game whatsoever. This game reminds me a lot of the Tennessee game at New England back in 2009. The Titans were pounded 59-0 by the Patriots to fall to 0-6 and Tennessee came back the following week to win at home over Jacksonville by 17 points. Obviously this game cannot predict any future outcomes but it gives an example of what players are capable of doing in this league after getting shown up, and badly for that matter. Egos go a long way in this game and the Cardinals do no want theirs bruised again. As far as the matchup itself goes, the Lions played one of their best defensive games of the season but we can thank the weather partly for that. This is a solid defense that is ranked 13th in the NFL in total defense but they still allow a ton of points as they are 26th in scoring. Arizona has a great opportunity to bust out on offense, something that has not happened in a while. The Detroit offense is potent as we all know but Arizona is a respectable 12th in total defense and after last week, that unit will be ready to play. The offense for Arizona is in a great spot as it is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl while the Lions are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 17 ppg or less. Also we play on teams that are averaging between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (324) Arizona Cardinals |
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12-16-12 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +3 | 21-13 | Loss | -108 | 119 h 41 m | Show | |
We won by playing against the Bears last week and now we will be taking them in this spot. Chicago was a three-point divisional road favorite and now it goes to a three-point divisional home underdog in the span of one week. Granted, the Bears are not playing very good right now while the Packers may be hitting their stride but the Packers going from a five-point home favorite in the first meeting to a three-point road favorite here is ludicrous. The Bears show up in a must win situation.
The Packers won at home against Detroit last week despite getting outgained by 98 yards but they were able to win the turnover battle. Green Bay has won seven of its last eight games with the one loss being that horrendous defeat in New York which happened to be its last home game. This is not the same dominating team we are accustomed to as the Packers have been outgained in four of their last six games and on the season they are getting outgained by an average of 6.0 ypg. The loss of Brian Urlacher for the Bears defense is a big one no doubt but now that they have played one game without him, the unit should be better off this week with better cohesiveness. Still, this is a defense that is ranked fifth overall and third in points allowed. The problem has been stopping the run as Chicago has allowed 119 or more yards rushing in seven straight games but that is something Green Bay should not be able to take advantage of despite looking good that last two weeks at home. The Packers will get Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews back this week which is a big boost for the defense but that defense has been pretty bad over the last 11 weeks. Chicago's offense isn't going to strike fear in many opponents but the fact Jay Cutler had a poor outing against Minnesota means he is in a good spot to rebound which he has typically done in the past. His last two sub-60 passer ratings this season has turned into blowout Chicago wins in the next game. The Bears have two solid situation on their side here. First we play on home teams that are revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 66-33 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against road favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games. This situation is 46-18 ATS (71.9 percent) since 1983. 9* (304) Chicago Bears |
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12-16-12 | Denver Broncos v. Baltimore Ravens +3 | 34-17 | Loss | -120 | 119 h 39 m | Show | |
The Ravens were our only letdown of the NFL weekend as they blew a late lead and allowed Kirk Cousins and the Redskins to tie the game late and eventually win in overtime. Baltimore faces another very difficult task by hosting the Broncos this week and it will have to do so with a new offensive coordinator as Cam Cameron was let go and replaced by Jim Caldwell, promoting him from quarterbacks coach. It was an interesting move considering the Ravens offense has been pretty solid all season.
Denver has become the biggest publicly bet team of the season and considering it has won eight straight games, it should come as no surprise. The Broncos covered four straight prior to losing the money in the next three and then escaped with a cover at Oakland last Thursday night. They have had extra time off for this game which is a big edge but playing on the east coast negates that. Denver has won five in a row on the road but this is definitely the spot to consider that streak coming to an end. Baltimore has now lost two games in a row but it still does have a two-game lead in the AFC North thanks to both the Steelers and Bengals losing last week. The Ravens close against the Giants and Bengals after this so if they are not careful, they could find themselves out of the playoffs all together. They have to protect home field where they are 16-1 in their last 17 home games with the lone loss coming against the Steelers last time out. They haven't lost consecutive home games since 2007. Reports state that Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco had no say in the firing of Cameron but that is likely not true at all. He seemed upset that the Ravens failed to stay with the no-huddle offense, something he seemed so excited about at the beginning of the season and it is a system that he has moved the offense very well in. Expect to see Flacco have more say in the offense now and we will see more no-huddle against Denver and it is perfect timing to keep the stout Broncos defense off balance. The return of Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs will be a huge boost to the defense. It also helps knowing that the Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Also, Baltimore is 7-3-2 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a winning record while Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against teams with a winning record. Baltimore is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games coming off back-to-back losses against an opponent off a straight up and ATS win. 9* (316) Baltimore Ravens |
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12-16-12 | Minnesota Vikings v. St. Louis Rams -2.5 | 36-22 | Loss | -120 | 119 h 32 m | Show | |
We won with Minnesota last week against the Bears and were fortunate in doing so as the defense stepped up with two huge interception returns with one going for a touchdown and the other going down to the Bears five-yard line. The Vikings were outgained by 190 total yards but were able to still win by a touchdown to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. That was the third straight game as well as the sixth in the last seven that Minnesota has been outgained by the opposition.
After winning at home in overtime against San Francisco, many expected the Rams to suffer a letdown in Buffalo but that was not the case as they rallied late to pull out the victory. That was the first time in the last 10 games that St. Louis was able to win after playing the 49ers and at 6-6, the playoffs are still a slight possibility. With the final two games of the season being on the road against Seattle and Tampa Bay, the Rams absolutely have to win this game to protect their home field. The Vikings have relied on running back Adrian Peterson to carry the offense over the last seven games as he is averaging 157.3 ypg over that stretch. To no surprise, quarterback Christian Ponder five quarterback ratings of 58.2 or worse so slowing down Peterson will definitely slow down the offense. The Rams have a defense that can do that. They are ranked 13th in rushing defense but they are allowing just 4.0 ypc which is tied for eighth in the NFL. Expect the unit to continue its strong play here. To add to that point, the Rams are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 4.5 ypc rushing or better. On the other side, Minnesota's defense has not been very good that last couple weeks especially last week as it allowed 438 yards against Chicago which was the Bears highest output since Week Five and second highest all season. The Vikings are 6-1 at home and 1-5 on the road and to no surprise, the home team is 10-2-1 ATS in Minnesota games this season. The Vikings are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games coming off a win as a home underdog while going 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games after allowing 400 or more yards in consecutive games. They also fall into a negative league situation as we play against teams coming off a divisional win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 69-28 AYS (71.1 percent) since 1983. St. Louis keeps the playoff dream alive after a home win Sunday. 9* (310) St. Louis Rams |
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12-16-12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints -3.5 | Top | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 118 h 27 m | Show |
Both Tampa Bay and New Orleans come into this game riding three-game losing streaks so clearly there is no momentum on either side. While the Buccaneers have lost their three games by a combined 11 points and the Saints have lost their three games by a combined 45 points, it is the latter which has actually been playing better. New Orleans outgained both the Falcons and Giants and are +53.7 ypg in those contests while Tampa Bay was outgained in all three and by an average of 59.3 ypg.
Tampa Bay is still clinging on to a small hope of making the playoffs so this is obviously a must win situation. But coming off that loss against Philadelphia last week is devastating as it looked as though the Buccaneers had the game locked up. Not so much. The defense, which has actually been playing pretty well, fell apart at the worst possible time against the Eagles and now they will be facing Drew Brees who has put up a combined passer rating of 112.7, his worst two-game total since 2007. It is hard to explain the struggles of Brees but it is not lack of effort and you can just see that he is clearly frustrated over his performances. In the last three games, Brees has no touchdowns and six interceptions on 43 attempts of more than 10 yards, according to ESPN Stats & Information. But two of those games were on the road and the other was against the 49ers which have the second best total defense as well as the second best passing defense in the NFL. We will see a rebound here at home. While many will argue it has been the defense on top of it, turnovers have been the Saints undoing the last two games as they have a 9-3 disadvantage in that category. The defense has actually been fairly good as after allowing 400 or more total yards in each of its first 10 games, New Orleans has allowed fewer than 400 yards in each of its last three games, giving up just 350.7 ypg over that stretch. That certainly is not the best average but from what it was, it is a massive improvement. While the Saints playoff hopes are done, expect them to continue to play hard, especially at home as they know the fans deserve it. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against teams allowing 350 or more passing ypg while the Buccaneers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams allowing 350 or more passing ypg. Also, the Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games as favorites of less than a touchdown and 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games after gaining 400 or more ypg over their last three games. 10* (308) New Orleans Saints |
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12-13-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Philadelphia Eagles +3 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -100 | 72 h 22 m | Show |
The Eagles looked dead on Sunday as they trailed the Buccaneers by 11 points but rallied to pull out a much needed win which ended their eight-game losing skid. They easily could have folded then they allowed 21 unanswered points but they did not give up and played hard right to the end and that is a big part of the play here. Obviously the playoffs are out but they gained some renewed confidence and the goal now is to finish strong. Playing with no pressure means playing loose which is always an advantage.
The Bengals are coming off a devastating loss against the Cowboys to fall to 7-6 and now must travel on a short week. Cincinnati had a four-game winning streak prior to the loss and things are not looking very good with the remainder of the schedule as it closes with games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The Bengals are still in the mix for grabbing a Wild Card spot but the Sunday loss may have told us that they are not as good as was perceived when they were riding that winning streak. The Eagles won on Sunday despite losing the turnover battle for the 10th time in 13 games this season. The good news is that they only turned it over once but it was the fifth consecutive game that Philadelphia's defense did not have a takeaway and while that is not a good thing, it is one of those streaks that will not last the rest of the season and Cincinnati has given it up 21 times on the year. The Eagles allowed just 314 total yards against Tampa Bay. Offensively, Philadelphia got a great game out of quarterback Nick Foles which was a huge step for the rookie and one that he can build on. He threw for two touchdowns in the final four minutes to overcome that 11-point deficit, finishing with an Eagles' rookie-record 32 completions and 381 yards. The Bengals defense has gone four straight games without allowing 300 yards but playing at that high level is tough to do and playing on the short week makes it even more difficult. The Eagles played on Sunday like we thought they were going to play all season as there was more energy, more hustle and more heart in this game than they've shown for weeks. Now they will be bringing that same energy home where they have not won since September 30th against the Giants. The Eagles go from an eight-point road underdog to a three-point home underdog so they are definitely on the value side with this number. Expect to see another very inspired effort on Thursday. 10* (302) Philadelphia Eagles |
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12-10-12 | Houston Texans v. New England Patriots -3 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 81 h 13 m | Show |
This is arguably the best Monday night matchup of the season thus far and this one will go a long way in playoff seedings. Both Houston and New England clinched playoff berths last week, the Patriots clinching the division and the Texans now one win away from the division title. This game obviously means a lot to both sides so motivation will not be an issue but the situation is much better for New England as it heads home after a road win while Houston is playing its third straight road contest.
The Patriots are riding a six-game winning streak and while the opposition has been average, they will be out to prove something here. Their last real quality win came here against Denver and that was the last time the Broncos lost so that definitely says something. The three losses for New England this year all could have been wins as they lost those games by a combined four points. All three losses came down to the final minute with two of those decided on last second field goals. The Texans share the best record in the NFL with Atlanta as a loss to Green Bay is the only blemish on the card. That game can definitely tell us something as Houston struggled against a potent offense in the Packers and it also struggled against the Lions on Thanksgiving as it snuck out a win there. The Texans will be facing another strong offense here as the Patriot lead the NFL in both total offense and scoring offense and the banged up defense could be in for another long night. While the Patriots offense is the best, the defense is far from it as it is ranked 26th in total defense. But the defense thrives on turnovers as its 33 takeaways easily lead the AFC and their +24 turnover difference is by far the best in football. That has limited opposing teams from scoring much as New England is a respectable 14th in scoring defense. Houston's offense is no joke but gaining 1,154 yards and 77 points in consecutive games against Jacksonville and Detroit has skewed the numbers. Coming off a divisional win is no letdown for New England as it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games coming off a divisional win and the Patriots have covered four straight Monday night games. They also fall into a great situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. The Patriots prove they are still the team to beat in the AFC. 10* (134) New England Patriots |
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12-09-12 | New Orleans Saints v. NY Giants -4.5 | 27-52 | Win | 100 | 91 h 14 m | Show | |
I played against the Giants Monday night and they were beaten by the Redskins as favorites. They come in as favorites once again but they are back home and in desperate need of a victory. This game sets up very similar to their last game at home when they were coming off a road loss at Cincinnati only to completely dominate the Packers. We may not see the same kind of domination here but I expect nothing short of a comfortable win to keep their game lead in the NFC East.
The Saints are coming off a loss in Atlanta despite outgaining the Falcons by 153 total yards. Drew Brees had one of his worst games ever as he tossed five interceptions and his touchdown streak came to an end. While many will picture him coming back here, I don't see it happening. He is a great competitor but the loss to the Falcons pretty much knocked them out of playoff contention and that will be difficult to rebound from. The Saints are just 2-4 on the road this year. I will give credit to the Saints defense as they played their best game of the season last week and it wasn't even close as they allowed just 283 total yards. Their previous low was 375 yards which happened to come the week before against San Francisco. As improved as it looks, I can't see the unit continuing to play at such a high level with nothing really on the line anymore. After putting up 390 yards and 38 points against Green Bay, the Giants again put up 390 yards last week but managed only 16 points. New York will have its hands full in the secondary here but they have been playing exceptional. They have allowed 201 yards or fewer passing in four straight games and they have allowed only one 300-yard passer and was Tony Romo in Week Eight. The key here is getting to Brees and that should not be a problem. The Giants are tied for 10th in the NFL with 30 sacks and while the protection has been good for Brees this year, they are in a vulnerable spot this week. The Giants have covered five of their last seven games following a loss including three of four this year and under Tom Coughlin, they are 22-9 ATS in 31 games against teams averaging 375 or more ypg. New York falls into an extraordinary situation as well as we play on home teams coming off a road loss by three points or less, with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 on the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 8* (128) New York Giants |
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12-09-12 | Philadelphia Eagles +9 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 88 h 54 m | Show | |
The Eagles got a fortunate cover last week against Dallas thanks to a long punt return for a touchdown in the final minute. We would have been better off if they had lost by the 11 points but we are still getting significant value here considering a loss is a loss. Those losses have been piling up as Philadelphia has dropped its last eight games but this is the time to bite as the Eagles have been overvalued most of the season but that has suddenly done a reversal the last two weeks.
Tampa Bay had won four straight games before dropping its last two against two of the best teams in the league in Atlanta and Denver. The Buccaneers have been outgained in three of their last four games and they have been outgained by an average of 31.4 ppg overall. Sitting at 6-6, they are in desperate need of a win to remain in the playoff hunt but don't think the linesmakers don't know this with the number they have put up in this one. Tampa Bay has been favored by a touchdown or more only twice since 2009. The Eagles offense has struggled to score points which is no secret but even the hodgepodge unit should have success here. Tampa Bay has allowed 26 ppg over its last seven games and a unit that is ranked 19th in points allowed on the season is ranked 30th in total defense. The Buccaneers at one point somehow managed to allow a ton of yards without getting torched on the scoreboard but that is no longer the case as they are getting it bad now in both areas. Offensively, the Buccaneers have taken a step back as quarterback Josh Freeman has come under more pressure from opposing defenses and running back Doug Martin has found fewer holes to run through up front. This is due to a makeshift offensive line that is missing Pro Bowl guards David Joseph and Carl Nicks who are both in I-R. the key will be for the Eagles to get a takeaway, any takeaway, as it has gone four straight games without one. The Buccaneers can be a willing participant. The Eagles have numerous situations favoring them this week with one of the more powerful ones being where we play on road underdogs or pickems coming off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, team with a losing record in the second half of the season. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Buccaneers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing road record. 8* (119) Philadelphia Eagles |
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12-09-12 | Chicago Bears v. Minnesota Vikings +3 | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 88 h 52 m | Show | |
The Bears are coming off a tough home loss in overtime against Seattle and while many are going to predict a bounceback here, I don't think it is going to happen. They have dropped three of their last four games and while they have come against some very formidable competition, we are starting to see the flaws of this team. Chicago is now without linebacker Brian Urlacher for at least three weeks and that is a devastating blow to a defense that got gashed last week.
The Vikings are back home after two straight road game, both of which resulted in losses. They are on a worse skid right now than that Bears having lost four of their last five games but three of those losses were on the road and playing here in a revenge spot sets up well. These teams just played in Chicago three weeks ago and the Bears were 6.5-point home favorites and now the Bears are favored again on the road which does not correlate with the change of venue. In the first meeting, despite losing by 19 points, the Vikings were only outgained by 38 total yards and the offense has a shot at controlling the line of scrimmage. The Bears allowed no more than 106 rushing yards in their first six games but have allowed an average of 136 ypg over their last six games and have to face Adrian Peterson once again. He managed only 108 yards in the first meeting but it came on 18 carries (6.0 ypc). He has averaged 157.8 ypg and scored six touchdowns over his last six games. While the Bears allowed a season high in yards on defense, the Vikings did as well but that was against Green Bay. They gave up just 296 yards in the first meeting against the Bears and with the receiving corps and offensive line banged up for Chicago, they can have some similar success. With two more road games on deck, Minnesota knows what is at stake here as a loss and the hopes of sneaking into the playoffs could be lost as playing at St. Louis and Houston and tough challenges. The Bears seem to be in decent position for the playoffs but they aren't. They're tied with Green Bay for first place in the NFC North, but hold the fifth seed in the NFC based on their Week Two loss to the Packers. The Vikings fall into a solid contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive ATS losses, in December games. This situation is 87-43 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 8* (116) Minnesota Vikings |
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12-09-12 | Baltimore Ravens +3 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 89 h 30 m | Show |
I won with Washington on Monday night and that was clearly a huge win for the Redskins as they pulled to within just one game of the Giants in the NFC East. They remain at home which may seem like a good spot but I think Washington has itself in a tough one based on the opposition. The Redskins are coming off three straight victories and if that doesn't spell letdown, nothing does. Yes, there is a lot on the line so a letdown may be the wrong term but this will be tough to come back from.
Baltimore is coming off a loss against Pittsburgh and while it still has a two-game lead in the AFC North, with Pittsburgh back home against San Diego, a loss here from the Ravens will most likely mean that lead is trimmed to just one game. The Ravens have won three straight games on the road and they know they need to keep the pedal down with Ben Roethlisberger on his way back very shortly. With a game at home against Denver coming up, Baltimore knows it needs this one. The Ravens had won four straight games prior to the Steelers loss and they have followed up each of their previous two losses with wins. The offense has taken a step back the last three games as they have averaged just 16.3 ppg and have been held to fewer than 300 yards in two of those games. Now Baltimore gets to face one of the worst defenses in the NFL as the Redskins are ranked 29th in total defense and 23rd in scoring defense. A great effort last week against New York will not be duplicated again. The Washington offense has been solid all season with RGIII becoming a legitimate star in this league. Baltimore's defense has not played that well this season but it has played a lot better since its bye week. After allowing 23 ppg and 400 ypg through its first seven games, the Ravens have allowed just 16.2 ppg and 333.4 ypg over their last five games which is a huge recovery. There is a lot of pride with this unit just because they are getting older doesn't mean that they cannot still compete. Terrell Suggs is a gametime decision this week. The Ravens are 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games coming off an upset loss as a home favorite and they fall into a great situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a home loss by three points or less, in the second half of the season. This situation is 29-10 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. A great spot catching Washington in both a physical and emotional letdown. 10* (105) Baltimore Ravens |
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12-09-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Carolina Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 88 h 19 m | Show |
Carolina was in a very tough spot last week having to go to Kansas City and play a game a day after tragedy hit the Chiefs. We won with Kansas City in that game and the emotions from it carries that team through. The opposite was the case for the Panthers as they were put into a situation no team wants to be in. They were coming off a big Monday night road win at Philadelphia on top of it so the short week didn't help matters. Now back home, look for a full out effort.
The Falcons got away with another one. This team is 11-1 and a lot of that has been done with smoke and mirrors and fortunate bounces. They were outgained by 153 yards against the Saints last Thursday but managed to pick off Drew Brees five times. Those throws were bad ones too so the credit cannot solely go to the defense as Brees was clearly not himself. There is still a lot at stake for Atlanta as far as playoff seeding and such but coming off a division clinching win is tough to recover from. Carolina was able to outgain Kansas City last week but it was unable to match the Chiefs energy. The Panthers have now outgained four of their last seven opponents but only have two wins to show for it. Closing has been a big issue as in their last seven losses, six have been by six points or less including one in overtime. Carolina has been painfully close at home to being a lot better but a 1-5 record is what has put them down to where they are right now but they continue to play hard. The defense will have to play a big game in order to slow down the Falcons offense but this defense has played a lot better. The Panthers are ranked 14th in total defense and after allowing more than 400 yards three times in their first four games, they have allowed 400 yards only once since. After defeating the New Orleans Saints 23-13 on Thursday, Falcons coach Mike Smith gave the team four days off and the gameplanning for this game did not begin until Wednesday. The first meeting was a close one on Atlanta as the Panthers lost on a 40-yard field goal with five second left and they falls into two successful revenge spots. We play on teams that are revenging a loss by three points or less, team with a losing record in the second half of the season. This situation is 22-5 ATS (81.5 percent) over the last five seasons. Also we play on home teams that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 43-18 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (118) Carolina Panthers |
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12-09-12 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Cleveland Browns -6.5 | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 88 h 8 m | Show |
You have to give Kansas City a lot of credit for not only playing last week after the Jovan Belcher tragedy, but going out and winning. A lot of times in sports, emotions take over and that is what happened last week with the Chiefs as they went out and snapped their eight-game losing streak. At the same time though, those emotions can do a complete reversal and I expect that to happen this week. This team is emotionally spent and playing this week is going to be a lot tougher than last week.
After starting the season 0-5, the Browns have been playing a lot better as they are 4-3 over their last seven games. Three of those victories came against the Bengals, Chargers and Steelers so it isn't like that have been beating up on the NFL doormats although Kansas City can certainly fit into that category. Cleveland has won two straight games and it has been extremely competitive at home all season with a 3-3 record while getting outscored by just 0.6 ppg. The Chiefs are coming off two straight draining games as the week prior, they lost a close game at home against rival Denver so now hitting the road after three straight home games, a loss against Cincinnati started the homestand, is a challenge. To their credit, they have put up some good games on the road including at Pittsburgh and at New Orleans but they have also put up some real duds with three of the four losses coming by 18, 28 and 18 points. Defensively, the Chiefs are ranked 26th against the run, giving up 129.3 ypg. They rank ninth against the pass, giving up 219.9 ypg, but it is not necessarily because of stellar work. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 2,774 yards at a 60.3 completion rate, averaged 8.3 yards per pass and posted a 103.0 rating. They have thrown for 25 touchdowns and been intercepted seven times. The Browns should have no problem moving the ball as the offensive is coming off its best game of the season with 475 yards. This is a big number for the Browns to be laying but I feel it is completely justified based on the situation. They have been an underdog in every one of their previous home games but considering the last four have been against quality opponents (yes at the time San Diego was quality), that just makes sense. The Browns are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after a win. 10* (108) Cleveland Browns |
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12-09-12 | NY Jets -2.5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 50 h 59 m | Show |
I was originally staying away from this game based on the fact the Jets were likely going to start Greg McElroy as I honestly thought we had seen the last of Mark Sanchez in a Jets uniform. Well, he was just recently named the starter once again and I think we are going to see one of his best efforts of the season. People are so down on him right now which makes him in a perfect take situation. "It was probably the worst and best experience of my life," Sanchez said Wednesday, reflecting on last Sunday's benching.
Jacksonville is coming off a loss in Buffalo on a very rainy day so it is hard to take a lot out of that game because of the bad weather. What can be taken out of it though is the fact that the Jaguars continue to get stung by the injury bug. Starting running back Rashad Jennings and starting wide receiver Cecil Shorts both suffered concussions last week and both are likely out this week which depletes and already poor offense. Jacksonville is ranked 31st in total offense and 30th in scoring offense. It may be tough for some to hear me defend Sanchez but I'm going to. The benching was a very good thing as it should serve as a huge motivator for him. In addition, he has played against some very tough defenses as in his 12 starts, he has faced defenses ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th and 12th in half of those. The Jets have averaged 11.3 ppg in those games. In the other games, New York has put up 26.7 ppg and considering the Jaguars are ranked 31st in total defense and 30th in scoring defense, the Jets offense should roll. The Jets are having a rough season no doubt but to their credit, they have played the league's 2nd toughest schedule. They have faced five teams in the top ten and seven teams in the top 16, going 0-5 and 1-6 respectively so they are 4-1 against the bottom half of the NFL. Jacksonville certainly falls into that category. Granted, elite teams are capable of defeating other elite teams in the NFL but no one here is calling the Jets elite. But they are good enough the steamroll one of the worst teams in the NFL. Playing road favorites in the NFL is not going to be a winning proposition over the long haul but some spots it is deemed that way when the situation arises and this is one of those. Additionally, the Jets fall into a solid situation where we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are getting outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Don't be surprised to see one of the best efforts of the season from New York this week. 10* (113) New York Jets |
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12-06-12 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +11.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 18 m | Show |
Denver has won seven straight games and is definitely poised to give the AFC leaders a run come playoff time. With won come popularity, with popularity comes betting attraction and with betting attraction comes inflated lines. Yes, Denver is playing great and Oakland is far from it but this line is extremely overpriced. Getting anything over a touchdown at home is huge in this league and that is proven by home underdogs of 8 points or more are 27-3 ATS over the last four years.
The Raiders are coming off another tough loss as they lost by three points against the Browns to make it five straight defeats going back to the start of November. They have not been playing that badly as they have outgained five of their last eight opponents and on the season they are getting outgained by only 25.2 ppg which is very respectable for a team with their record. The issue has been miscues as Oakland has lost the turnover battle in four of its last five games. Denver won the first meeting in this series and it wasn't even close as the Broncos won by 31 points while outgaining Oakland by 266 total yards. Despite losing the next game against the Patriots, that first meeting against Oakland seemed to have set a spark and got them rolling after a 1-2 start to the season. This is a divisional rivalry and even though one team is rolling and the other is reeling, records can be tossed out the door and I expect the Raiders to give all they have to get their revenge on national television. Raiders head coach Dennis Allen, the former Broncos defensive coordinator, left the team immediately after the Cleveland game to be with his father who eventually passed away on Tuesday. If there ever is a time for a team to come together and win one for their coach, this is the time. With the short week, the position coaches had begun some of the scouting of the Broncos last week to allow the coordinators to put together the game plan on Sunday night and Monday. Therefore there is not a big disadvantage with Allen being out. Oakland has numerous situations on its side in this game and one of the best is to play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.4 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75%) since 1983. Additionally, Denver is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games against teams getting outscored by 10 or more ppg while the Raiders are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 divisional games. 10* (102) Oakland Raiders |
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12-03-12 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
The Giants won the first meeting in a wild game as they scored a 77-yard touchdown pass with 1:13 remaining after Washington had just taken the lead less that 20 seconds prior. Obviously the Redskins want revenge from that game but more important they need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Sitting at 5-6, they are a game out of the NFC's second Wild Card spot heading into Sunday and just as important, a victory puts them just a game behind New York in the NFC East.
The Giants looked great last week coming out of the bye and people will be riding them based on past success this time of year. Also, they have been great on the road the last couple years but the line is totally overinflated here. New York was favored by six and a half points in that first meeting at home and not a lot has changed since then so if anything, this game should be a pickem. Going against the masses here as this line has been driven up to provide a great home underdog opportunity. New York has succeeded this season with a lot due to turnovers. The Giants have won the turnover battle in six of their last seven games and that has been a huge part to why they are fifth in the NFL in scoring offense and ninth in the NFL in scoring defense. They are 10th in total offense and just 23rd in total defense and that is where the Redskins can take advantage. Holding Green Bay to 317 yards and 10 points was a huge effort but repeating that will be a challenge here. The Redskins offense has thrived with RGIII behind center as they are sixth in total offense and seventh in scoring offense. Those two rankings are so close and so good because they do not turn the ball over. Washington has given it up only once over its last four games and for the season its 10 giveaways are the fewest in the NFC and third in the NFL. The defense was riddled with injuries early in the season but they have been playing a lot but recently. Washington can take advantage it is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing six or more yppl. Additionally, the Redskins fall into a great situation where we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 55-28 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1983. Also, the Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing record. 10* (368) Washington Redskins |
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12-02-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. San Diego Chargers +2.5 | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 5 m | Show | |
We lost a devastating game last week with San Diego as the Chargers gave up a 4th and 29 late in the fourth quarter and Baltimore was able to keep its drive going, eventually tying the game and sending into overtime which the Ravens eventually won. While the Chargers are not completely out of the playoff picture, things are looking bleak and another loss will send them home during the playoffs once again. This is the time of the year San Diego tends to step it up and we should see it again this week.
The Bengals meanwhile are right back in the playoff picture as they have won three straight games to get to 6-5 which is tied with Pittsburgh for the second Wild Card spot in the AFC. Obviously, they are playing for a lot as well but I do not think this team is as good as people suddenly think they are during this winning streak. They had lost four straight prior to it and the schedule has been in their favor as Cincinnati has played four of its last five games at home with a bye mixed in there as well. The Cincinnati defense played at a very high level last season but started very slow this year. However it limited the Chiefs and Raiders to a combined 502 yards and have forced seven turnovers during their winning streak. The Kansas City and Oakland offenses are nothing to be feared though and San Diego still has a very powerful offense when it isn't turning the ball over. After two straight bad week of offense, expect the Chargers to get going again. The Bengals offense has put up consecutive 400-plus yards games for the first time this season but again, it came against the Chiefs and Raiders which both have been below average this season. With the exception of giving up that 4th and 29, the Chargers defense played great last week against a very solid Ravens offense as they limited the scoring despite giving up a significant amount of yards. San Diego is 10th in the NFL in total defense and 12th in scoring defense. Typically San Diego would be favored here but after losing five of six games, we are getting a very good number with the Chargers. Actually, San Diego was favored by three points in this matchup last week when lines were available at some spots so we are catching a huge amount of points and we can thank it for the blown call on fourth down last week. The Chargers have been here before, last year as a matter of fact, when they started 4-1 and went on to win four of their last five games. 8* (364) San Diego Chargers |
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12-02-12 | Carolina Panthers v. Kansas City Chiefs +3 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 72 h 59 m | Show | |
Carolina is coming off a win over the hapless and injury riddled Eagles and now they are apparently good enough to lay points on the road once again. Playing on a short week and on the road is a tough spot for any team and it becomes even more challenging for a struggling team like Carolina. The offense put up the most points since Week Two and they followed that up with a clunker the next game and I expect the same problems here even though they are playing a team with just one win.
The Chiefs played well again last week but got nothing to show for it as they came up short against the Broncos. They came in with some high hopes this year and an early season win at New Orleans gave Kansas City some confidence to move forward but it has since lost its last eight games. The Chiefs are winless at home at 0-6 and with just one game left after this against the Colts, this could be the final opportunity for them to win here as the Colts could be fighting for the playoffs come Week 16. This is the third straight home game for Kansas City and it falls into a similar situation that Cincinnati was in three weeks ago. Since 1985 there have been 180 teams that have played a three-game homestand and only 10 times have they dropped all three of those games. 18 times teams have lost the first two games and gone on to win with the only exception being the 2008 Lions that went 0-16 that year. Cincinnati defeated the Giants in Week 10 after dropping the first two games of its homestand. Points scored and points allowed have been the big issues obviously for Kansas City but the actual offense and defense have not been that bad as it is 21st in total offense and 16th in total defense. The Chiefs have lost the turnover battle in eight of 11 games with the other three games resulting in a wash. Carolina is not a ball hawking defense and the Chiefs have actually done a better job of late, giving it up only three times in their last three games after turning it over 29 times in their first eight games. Teams on long losing streaks like to be laid off by bettors fearing the streak will go on and that is definitely case here. The fact that Carolina won on national television last week only adds to that. The Chiefs have a great league-wide situation on their side as we play on underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season. This situation is 80-40 ATS (67 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Carolina is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win. 9* (348) Kansas City Chiefs |
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12-02-12 | New England Patriots v. Miami Dolphins +9 | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 72 h 44 m | Show | |
Often times we see dominant NFL teams falling flat coming off big efforts in consecutive weeks and we have two teams this week which fall into that category. The first is New England. The Patriots are flying high with five straight wins but I think they are in a tough spot and we are getting line value on top of it. New England gets some extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving but I think that can hurt momentum and after being a road favorite of -7 over the Jets, they are favored by more over Miami? I don't think so.
The Dolphins are coming off a big win last week at home against Seattle but with the hated Patriots in town, there will be no letdown. The victory snapped the Dolphins three-game losing streak and they are now just a game under .500 for the season. The playoffs are far from out of the question as they trail Pittsburgh and Cincinnati by just a game and should things work out like I think they will, they will remain that way worst case scenario. A win here will go a long way. There is no reason to think Miami cannot win this game as they actually matchup well against New England. The defense is playing well as they have allowed just 295.3 ypg over their last three games and they are ranked ninth in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 20.5 ppg. The Patriots have a high powered offense and they have been scoring points in bunches but two of those games came at home, another came in London and last week 28 of the 49 points were because of turnovers. Miami has been very inconsistent on offense all season but it is coming off its third best game of the season as it put up 435 yards against a very tough Seattle defense. As mentioned, the Patriots defense was in attack mode last week but facing an offense like the Jets can do that. New England is just 27th in the NFL in total defense and Miami should have success running the ball as after allowing 82.7 ypg through their first six games, the Patriots have allowed 122.6 ypg rushing in their last five games. Of the Dolphins six losses, four have been by five points or fewer with three coming by just a field goal including two in overtime. Miami was thumped in Houston but that was the season opener and in the 34-point loss against Tennessee, it was only outgained by 38 total yards as a 4-0 turnover disadvantage did it in. Speaking of turnovers, the Dolphins defense does not have a takeaway in their last four games and that is a streak I like to go against. The number continues to rise and we will gladly accept it. 8* (354) Miami Dolphins |
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12-02-12 | San Francisco 49ers v. St Louis Rams +7.5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 72 h 42 m | Show | |
Often times we see dominant NFL teams falling flat coming off big efforts in consecutive weeks and we have two teams this week which fall into that category. The second is San Francisco. The 49ers were coming off a tie with the Rams and took their frustrations out on Chicago the following game and then last week went into New Orleans and defeated a hot Saints team. They have put up 63 points over the last two games as the offense has found a new weapon in Colin Kaepernick.
St. Louis improved to 4-6-1 last week with its win in Arizona as it sent the Cardinals to their seventh straight loss. That snapped a five-game winless streak and will provide some needed confidence going into this game. The Rams a very solid 3-3 at home this season and one of those losses came against Green Bay right when it finally started to hit its stride. Another came against the Patriots but that game was in London so we can't even count that. The Jets loss was bad but a 3-0 turnover disadvantage was the difference. The 49ers have to be feeling pretty good about themselves right now with a two and a half game lead in the NFC West and coming off a statement game on the road. Even though this is a divisional game, this is the ideal letdown spot and they have essentially had two short weeks based on the Monday night game and then the travel aspect this week. After watching the win over the Saints last week, the public is again all over San Francisco and the line continues to rise. Speaking of rise, the rise of Kaepernick has been quick and seamless. He replaced Alex Smith after he went down with a concussion in the first meeting against the Rams and since replacing Smith against St. Louis, Kaepernick has a 104.1 passer rating while tossing three touchdowns and running for two more. While the question is can San Francisco up another big effort, can Kaepernick do the same? He will be facing his first tough defense on the road so that question remains to be answered. It is very interesting to note that the 49ers have not won three games in a row this season. They have won two in row four times but the three previous times were followed with losses twice and a tie. While many will not call for a loss here, it is more than possible as San Francisco proved in the first meeting that it doesn't match up well with the Rams as St. Louis won the yardage battle by 117 total yards. The home crowd will keep the Rams around here with a chance to pull of a major upset. 8* (344) St. Louis Rams |
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12-02-12 | Houston Texans v. Tennessee Titans +7 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 11 m | Show |
Houston is coming off two straight overtime wins which can be looked at in two different ways. It can bring a huge amount of confidence or it can produce a pretty big letdown. In the Texans case, I feel it is the latter. They were winning early in the season and winning these tight games is more of a sigh of relief than anything and it shows that they are not playing at a high level despite being 10-1. That record plays into the lines going forward and we are again catching a good number playing against Houston.
When Jake Locker came back into the lineup, the Titans looked like a different team two games ago even though he showed some rust. He had a much more productive game against Jacksonville last week but two interceptions hurt him. Still, Tennessee scored 56 points the last two games while outgaining both opponents which was the first time it has outgained consecutive opponents this season. Better yet, both of those games were on the road so the Titans should have some extra confidence going into this revenge game. Tennessee was thumped in Houston in the first meeting by 24 points even though it outgained the Texans by 28 yards. The difference there was turnovers as the Titans lost the turnover battle 3-0 and two of those were interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. That was the game that Locker was hurt in and he missed most of that game and five others because of a separated non-throwing shoulder. The offenses needed a boost and has gotten it and now playing a very banged up Texans defense. If coming off two consecutive overtime wins wasn't bad enough, Houston has a game at New England next Monday night so this is a very tough sandwich situation. Even throw in the previous week's hard fought win at Chicago and that adds up to a brutal three-game stretch. Head coach Gary Kubiak summed it up perfectly. "It's been very taxing on the team. Winning was so important, of course. To come out of there (Detroit) with a win because of where we're at and some of the issues we have, it was exceptional." As mentioned, this is a revenge game for Tennessee and it falls into a terrific revenge situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a loss against a division rival. This situation is 49-18 ATS (73.1 percent) since 1983. In addition, Houston is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games against teams allowing 27 or more ppg while going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Upset alert right here. 10* (356) Tennessee Titans |
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12-02-12 | Indianapolis Colts v. Detroit Lions -4.5 | Top | 35-33 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 5 m | Show |
The Lions have dropped two brutal home games in a row to fall to 4-7 and are now clinging by a thread in hopes of the playoffs. There is a three-way tie for the second Wild Card spot at 6-5 so it is going to take a lot of winning and a lot of help to get it done. This is now a must win game or the season will officially be done for Detroit as three of its final four games are against the Packers, Falcons and Bears. The extra time off from Thanksgiving to go along with no travel should help.
Indianapolis won against last week to improve to 7-4 and it currently sits in the first Wild Card spot in the AFC. That win was at home though where the Colts are 5-1 compared to just 2-3 on the road with the victories coming at Jacksonville and Tennessee and it is no coincidence that those were divisional wins. Those wins happened to follow home wins but the last time the Colts won at home and a divisional game was not on deck resulted in a 35-9 loss at New York to the Jets. This is the third straight home game for the Lions and it falls into a similar situation that Cincinnati was in three weeks ago. Since 1985 there have been 180 teams that have played a three-game homestand and only 10 times have they dropped all three of those games. 18 times teams have lost the first two games and gone on to win with the only exception being the 2008 Lions that went 0-16 that year. Cincinnati defeated the Giants in Week 10 after dropping the first two games of its homestand. The Lions are second in the NFL in total offense but they have killed themselves with turnovers which seems to be a common theme with all of these losing teams. The good news here though is that Indianapolis does not know how to take the ball away as it dead last in the NFL with just seven takeaways. The Lions should no problem moving the ball against the 20th ranked defense and scoring against the 22nd ranked defense in passing touchdowns allowed. Detroit's defense has struggled over the last three games but it should clamp down here. Andrew Luck is a solid rookie quarterback but the Colts also turn the ball over on offense which has cut into their scoring as they are 21st in scoring offense. We play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are outgaining opponents by 40 to 100 going up against teams with a yardage margin between +/- 40 ypg, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 33-10 ATS (77 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (350) Detroit Lions |
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11-29-12 | New Orleans Saints +3.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 13-23 | Loss | -107 | 58 h 17 m | Show |
Even though the Saints lost on Sunday against San Francisco, their playoff chances remained pretty much unchanged. The Falcons defeated the Buccaneers, the Dolphins defeated the Seahawks, and the Bears knocked off the Vikings which leaves New Orleans still just a game back in the Wild Card race but they hold the tiebreaker over all three. A win here is huge as it notches another conference win and those three other teams are all playing games on the road against playoff caliber teams as well.
The Falcons are coming off another close win as they defeated Tampa Bay on the road in a big divisional game, snapping the Buccaneers four-game winning streak. Atlanta has now played three straight games where it easily could have lost but was able to pull out the victory in two of those. The Falcons did lose the first of the three games at New Orleans and while they will be out for revenge here, it is not going to easy at all as the Saints are still playing at a high level. Despite hanging with the 49ers for the first half this past Sunday, long downfield drives by San Francisco and two interceptions from Drew Brees on consecutive passes were enough to seal the deal for New Orleans. The Saints were held to just 290 yards of total offense which comes as no surprise as the 49ers defense is ranked second overall and first in scoring. The Falcons are not nearly as good as they are 15th in total defense in the NFL and allowed 440 total yards in the first meeting. Obviously the Saints defense has some issues as they are ranked dead last in the league in total defense. They thing is though they have gotten better as the season has gone on as they are becoming more familiar with Steve Spagnuolo's defense as it is the first season with it. After allowing 459 or more yards in five of the first seven games, New Orleans has not yielded that amount in any of its last four games, giving up an average of 420 ypg including a season low 375 yards against the 49ers. The Saints have been able to take advantage of bad teams in the past as they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games in the second half of the season against teams allowing a completion percentage of 61 percent or worse and 8-0 ATS against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are +/- 0.4 in yppl margin against teams that are -0.4 to -1 in yppl margin. This situation is 78-39 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) New Orleans Saints |
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11-25-12 | Baltimore Ravens v. San Diego Chargers +2 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
The Chargers got us a win last week but chalked up another loss for them as they fell to 4-6 and the playoffs are looking dimmer and dimmer. They trail the Wild Card leaders by two games so there is still hope but they cannot afford to lose here, especially on their home field. Typically San Diego would be favored here but after losing five of six games, we are getting a very good number with the Chargers. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss and they know what is at stake here.
The Ravens won a tough game at Pittsburgh on Sunday night and not only does that setup a letdown spot here, they have a home game against Pittsburgh on deck. Traveling across country only adds to the sandwich spot for a Baltimore team that is not nearly as good on the road as it is at home. The Ravens are 3-2 on the highway and prior to the win over the Steelers, the other two wins came at Cleveland and Kansas City which are a combined 3-17. Baltimore has been outgained in six straight games. The Chargers have a great situation on their side as we play against favorites with defense that is allowing 130 or more rushing ypg, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 51-29 ATS (63.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (238) San Diego Chargers |
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11-25-12 | Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 10-34 | Loss | -126 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
The Raiders let us down last week as they lost at home to the Saints despite outgaining New Orleans. They lost the turnover battle and had an interception returned for a touchdown to fall behind 14-0 and playing catch up was impossible. This came after a horrible game in Baltimore and two bad games in a row means a play on now. After getting 9.5 points in their last road game at Baltimore, they are now getting the same or only a point less in some spots which is absurd to show Cincinnati and Baltimore on nearly the same page.
The Bengals have won two straight games since their bye week including a win over the Giants in their last home game. After four straight losses, Cincinnati has recovered and is now 5-5 and just a game out of the Wild Card picture. Still, this is a very inconsistent team and believe it or not, this is the most the Bengals have been favored by since 2009 and there is no reason to believe they should be this big of a favorite here. The public is totally against the Raiders so they had to price the line this high. Oakland has a contrarian situation on its side as we play against home teams (that are averaging between 335 and 370 ypg going up against team with a defense that is allowing 370 or more ypg. This situation is 41-17 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (221) Oakland Raiders |
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11-25-12 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs +11.5 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
We snuck out a win against Denver last week with the Chargers and we will go against the Broncos again here as they are completely overvalued. Yes, they are playing some of the best football in the NFL and because it is no secret, the lines are showing it. Denver has won five straight games by scoring more than 30 points each time and even the best NFL teams ever cannot keep that up. The Broncos have won their last three road games and this is the spot for that to come to an end.
Kansas City is playing just the opposite as it has dropped seven straight games and has yet to win at home this season, going 0-5. The Chiefs are coming off a blowout loss at home against the Bengals but we can give them a pardon as they were coming off a short week following a very tough loss in overtime at Pittsburgh. Now playing a divisional game, they step up once again. Kansas City falls into a spectacular situation as we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points after seven or more consecutive losses going up against teams after one or more consecutive wins. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (228) Kansas City Chiefs |
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11-25-12 | Atlanta Falcons -1 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 24-23 | Push | 0 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
The Falcons got off to an 8-0 start before dropping their first game in New Orleans two weeks ago. It took them a while to show up last week against Arizona but eventually they did and snuck out with a four-point win. Those two effort will have them more than ready for what has turned into a bog divisional game. Atlanta actually outgained the Cardinals last week and the Saints prior to that and has now won the yardage battle in seven of it last eight games. Prior to New Orleans, the four road wins were by an average of 14.8 ppg.
Tampa Bay is playing some of the best football in the league right now as it has won and covered four straight games. That is keeping this line very reasonable as a Falcons win likely means a cover as well. The Buccaneers got away with a game last week in Carolina as it rallied from an 11-point deficit to eventually take the game in overtime. It is hard to call this a letdown situation facing the division leaders but it surely puts Tampa Bay in a tough spot and even more so by trying to keep its winning streak alive. The Falcons fall into a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having won four out of their last five games, in November games. This situation is 41-13 ATS (75.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (233) Atlanta Falcons |
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11-22-12 | Washington Redskins v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 31 m | Show |
Dallas got another scare from an inferior opponent as it had to rally from a 13-0 halftime deficit to defeat Cleveland in overtime. The Cowboys would have taken a huge hit with a loss but they improved to 5-5 and get to remain home for their annual Thanksgiving game. The win was far from impressive and preparing for the Redskins will be tough but I think that victory is going to spark them this week. Dallas has won six of the last seven Thanksgiving Day games with the lone loss coming when Tony Romo was out.
Washington looked very impressive against the Eagles as they snapped their three-game losing streak. However you want to look at it though, the Eagles were not ready to play and they have given up on the season so the win cannot be perceived as good as it may look. Robert Griffin III had an outstanding game with just one incompletion and five touchdowns and while the defense allowed just six points, it is still 26th overall and 25th in points allowed. The short week will be too much for Washington here. 10* (106) Dallas Cowboys |
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11-22-12 | Houston Texans v. Detroit Lions +4.5 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 44 h 41 m | Show | |
Detroit hasn't won on Thanksgiving since 2003 so that will be keeping people off the Lions against this week. They are becoming a better team and coming off a tough loss against Green Bay, I expect them to bounce back and get their first win in front of the home fans on Thanksgiving in nine years. The loss dropped Detroit to 4-6 and it is now two games behind three teams for the second Wild Card spot in the NFC which makes this game a must win in order to keep thinking playoffs.
Houston had its hands full against Jacksonville as it won in overtime on a 48-yard touchdown from Andre Johnson. The Texans clearly were not focused against the Jaguars which was expected as we won with Jacksonville but that type of win could very well be an issue going forward. It took a lot out of them and coupled with the road win at Chicago the previous week, this is a team that will have trouble getting mentally ready for this one. Again, the public will be all over the 9-1 Texans. 9* (104) Detroit Lions |
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11-19-12 | Chicago Bears +7 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 7-32 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
Last night we saw how hard the Steelers played without their starting quarterback as the rest of the team stepped up and nearly defeated the Ravens. They should have as they outgained Baltimore 311-200 as a punt return touchdown was the difference. Flash forward to tonight and we are seeing a very similar situation where the Bears will be without their starting quarterback as Jason Campbell will be starting in place of Jay Cutler so expect a similar step up in effort from the rest of the team.
Campbell is an established quarterback so it is not like Chicago is going with an unseasoned rookie or young player with no experience. Last season, the Bears went from 7-3 and looking toward the playoffs to losing five of their final six to finish 8-8 and that's why they brought in Campbell in the offseason. The Bears are in fine shape here because of their defense. They are fifth overall and second in points allowed and they are coming off a very impressive showing against the Texans as they allowed only 215 total yards. Campbell went 10-5 over his last 15 starts with the Oakland Raiders, completing 60.3 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns, eight interceptions and an 89.6 passer rating. Still, it will be important for the Bears to establish their running game with Matt Forte who is averaging 4.7 ypc, just 0.2 off his career best from last season, and he's on pace for 1,028 yards. Getting him going will be big as it will take a lot of pressure off Campbell and help to keep the 49ers defense off balance. The 49ers had allowed just one opposing running back to top 100 yards in a span of 45 regular-season games before a recent stretch that began last month. In the last four games, the Giants' Ahmad Bradshaw, the Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch and Rams' Steven Jackson have gone over 100 against the 49ers. Last week, the Rams seemed to physically win in the trenches versus the usually physical 49ers and were very creative in their play calling and the Bears obviously are just as physical. San Francisco is no juggernaut on offense as it is ranked 13th overall and 14th in scoring and the only reason the rankings are that high is because of the game against the Bills where they scored 45 points and gained 621 yards on offense. Chicago is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games after having won two out of their last three games while going 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. A low scoring game is in our favor with the undervalued Bears in this one. Update: San Francisco announced this afternoon that Alex Smith will not play tonight which will further hinder the offense. The line has dropped so for those who locked it in early, good job. This is still a play however as the line is sitting at 3.5 across the board as of 2:45 ET. 10* (435) Chicago Bears |
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11-18-12 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers +4 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show | |
The Steelers took a big hit with the loss of Ben Roethlisberger as they have been playing well with four straight wins and trail the Ravens by just a game in the AFC North. Pittsburgh opened as a 3 to 3.5-point favorite by the first books to release lines but once Roethlisberger was declared out, the line completely flipped and now the Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite. A seven-point swing because of one player is absurd and since 1997, there have been only 15 moves of six points or more in the NFL.
The line move is based on where the books think the money is going to come in and it is a pretty safe bet you can guess where. The public money will be all over the Ravens. This is a perfect example of teams stepping up when one of their stars go down and you can guarantee every player on that Steelers team will be playing at a high level because they feel disrespected. Byron Leftwich takes over and he is a seasoned veteran with a lot of starting experience so it isn't like a rookie is falling into the quarterback spot. Despite a ton of injuries this season, the Steelers defense remains one of the best in the NFL as they are ranked first overall and seventh in scoring. They are equally balanced as they are fifth against the rush and first against the pass so Baltimore is not gong to have the same easy time it had last week against Oakland. After a very hot start on offense, the Ravens have cooled off as they have been held to 316 yards or less in four of their last five games. Overall, they are just 15th in the NFL in total offense. While the Steelers defense is still one of the best, the Baltimore defense has fallen on some hard times. They have not given up a lot of points because they have a lot of takeaways but they are ranked 28th in total defense and the once stout rushing defense is just 26th in the league. The Ravens have allowed over 100 yards six times including over 200 yards twice after allowing teams to rush for 100 or more yards only eight times all of last year. Look for the Steelers to pound the ball. The Steelers fall into a solid situation as we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, after the first month of the season. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games following a loss against the spread while the Ravens are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games after two straight games with a +2 or better turnover margin. 9* (434) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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11-18-12 | San Diego Chargers +8.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 39 m | Show |
The Broncos have killed us the last two weeks as they were able to win and cover as road favorites with the public going along for the ride. The same public will not be jumping off the Denver bandwagon just yet and because of that, the books had to set a line that is substantially overinflated. It opened at -7 and has already been bet up to -7.5 and even -8 in some places. This is roughly a nine-point swing from the first meeting when Denver came back from a 24-0 deficit to win on Monday night.
The Chargers are coming off a loss, their fourth defeat in their last five games after a 3-1 start. Sitting at 4-5, this is a must win game for San Diego. If it loses, it trails the Broncos by three games in the AFC West and it is essentially four games because of the head-to-head series loss. A 3-6 record is also not in a very position for the AFC Wild Card and although the Chargers would not be eliminated, a 5-5 record and a game behind Denver in the division looks a lot better. Similar to some other games, the Chargers goal is to slow this game down to shorten and not get into a track meet with Denver. They can do this by running the ball more frequent. The running game has been very good for the most part as they have surpassed 100 yards on the ground in seven of their last eight games. Denver's rushing defense is decent but it is not a top ten unit and defensive end Elvis Dumervil is questionable for this game and his absence would be big although we cannot count on it officially. The Chargers do not want to get into a track meet as mentioned but they still have a very solid defense that has been playing especially well of late. San Diego is seventh in the NFL in total defense and they have allowed fewer than 300 yards in three straight games. Granted, Denver is a much stronger offense than what it has seen but the Chargers are allowing a respectable 7.1 ypa. Peyton Manning ripped them apart in the second half of the first meeting so expect the correct adjustments to be made. San Diego falls into a very simple yet effective dynamic where we play on road underdogs coming off a road loss in the second half of the season. This situation is 100-50 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Broncos offense is clicking as they have scored 31 or more points in four straight games and that is a great scenario to go against and Denver itself is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 30 or more points in three straight games. Look for a close game in this big divisional battle. 10* (431) San Diego Chargers |
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11-18-12 | New Orleans Saints v. Oakland Raiders +6 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 45 m | Show |
The Raiders are coming off an embarrassing performance in Baltimore as they lost 55-20 but that means they are filled with value this week. Oakland actually outgained Baltimore in that game so it wasn't quite as bad as the final score shows but that is what most people pay attention to. Now Oakland heads home where it is 2-2 with wins in two of its last three games and it has the ability to keep up with the Saints offense if it comes down to that which it may not even have to.
New Orleans accomplished exactly what it wanted to do and that is hand the hated Falcons their first loss of the season. The goalline stand to end the game was impressive as the defense has been a sieve all season and that stop is still being celebrated. Now the Saints hit the road out west where they are 1-3 on the season and overvalued once again. Despite winning four of its last five games, New Orleans has been outgained in all five of those games as well as seven of nine games on the season. The Saints offense is again playing at a high level so the key for that will be for the Raiders to keep them off the field. They can accomplish this by coming with a gameplan to manufacture a strong running game. Oakland has been very inconsistent in running the ball this year as it couldn't even get to 100 yards in the last two games combined. That changes here though as New Orleans has the worst rushing defense in the NFL and it has surrendered over 200 yards rushing on four different occasions. When they do need to pass the ball, the Raiders have been very good this year as they are fifth in the NFL is passing offense. Carson Palmer has done a great job with what he has and Oakland has a great downfield passing attack with Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey as both are averaging in excess of 15 yards per catch. While the Saints cannot spot the run, they are also having trouble stopping opposing quarterbacks as they are 31st in passing defense and allow a league-worst 104.4 passer rating. Oakland gave up a ton of points last week but teams tend to bounce back as they are 5-1 straight up after allowing 55 or more points since 2005. Two other situations are in our favor as we play against favorites coming off a win as a home underdog. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) since 1983. Also, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a loss by 14 or more points that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (430) Oakland Raiders |
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11-18-12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Carolina Panthers +2 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 45 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with Carolina last week as Denver scored 16 point via defense and special teams. Once that pick six took place, the whole dynamic of the game changed. The Panthers were getting three and a half points against Denver and now they are getting a point and a half against Tampa Bay? Denver is clearly two points better than the Buccaneers so we are not only getting line value here but we get to buck a team that is now a public darling after three straight wins.
The Buccaneers have been playing very good of late but the wins have not been that impressive in my book. Defeating Minnesota and Oakland on the road were good but not great and against the Chargers, Tampa Bay was outgained by 147 total yards. The Buccaneers took advantage of a blocked punt return and an interception return for touchdowns so they were the beneficiaries of those fortunate plays as opposed to Carolina which was on the other side of those last game. Overall, the Carolina offense was not very good last week as it managed only 250 total yards which was a surprise as it had a very solid run going following a horrible performance against Seattle. The Panthers should be able to turn that around here against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are second to last in the NFL in total defense and they have allowed an average of 419.3 ypg over their last four games. The defense on the road has been even worse as they are allowing 423.5 on the highway this season. The Carolina defense held Denver to its second lowest yardage total in its last seven games so it can take that positive away. The Broncos did score 36 points but 14 of those came way of defense and special teams. Tampa Bay's offense has really picked things up as it has been scoring a ton of points but this is a trend we are going to buck as the Buccaneers are coming off their third worst performance on offense of the season as they managed only 279 total yards against the Chargers. Despite the records, Tampa Bay is -35.8 ypg in yardage margin while Carolina is -10.6 ypg in yardage margin which shows the team that has been better from endzone to endzone. Despite this, Carolina goes from a three-point road favorite in the first meeting to a home underdog this meeting which sets up playing on teams with a winning percentage of .250 or less with a line between +3 and -3 revenging a loss as a favorite, in the second half of the season. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (418) Carolina Panthers |
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11-18-12 | Jacksonville Jaguars +15.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 37-43 | Win | 100 | 48 h 2 m | Show |
I will gladly take this many points in an NFL game no matter good or how bad the teams may be. The situation sets us up even better. Houston is coming off a hard-fought, physical game at Chicago on Monday night in which it was able to sneak out with the win. Now it heads home on a short week laying over two touchdowns in a meaningless game. On top of that, the Texans have a short week coming up as they play at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day meaning they will be doing preparation for that game this week.
The Jaguars are not a very good team as we all know but even bad teams cover in the NFL. That includes Jacksonville which is 4-5 ATS so while still not profitable, it has been far from a money burner on the season. Double-digit underdogs are not as common in the NFL as they used to be but since 1990, they are hitting at a 65 percent clip including a perfect 3-0 last week. I am well aware that Houston has covered all three as double-digit favorites this year but none of those were spots like this. The Jaguars offense has been bad all season but it has been inconsistent which is actually okay when dealing with a negative since there have been some good performances. They were completely shut down in the first meeting at home against the Texans but there will be a different plan here as the Jaguars will go more no-huddle on offense. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert seems more at ease when playing the hurry up and it help be beneficial going against Houston which likes to use a lot of situational substituting. Jacksonville has taken a step backwards from last season on defense but it still has shown to be very stout at times. Allowing 238 total yards in their last road game at Green Bay is a perfect case in point. As far as Houston goes, it is not going to be throwing everything it has at Jacksonville on offense because with a short week on tap, the Texans cannot afford to expend a ton of energy as a physical game with Detroit awaits. Running back Arian Foster may be sharing time in the backfield with Justin Forsett which helps our cause. Jacksonville has a solid contrarian situation going for it as we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points that are averaging fewer than 265 ypg going up against teams that are allowing between 265 and 295 ypg. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. In addition, Houston is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games against teams allowing 27 or more ppg while Jacksonville is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games revenging a same season loss. The Jaguars have covered all four road games this year as well. 10* (425) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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11-15-12 | Miami Dolphins v. Buffalo Bills -1 | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 57 h 24 m | Show |
The Bills dropped to 3-6 following their third straight loss and the hopes of sneaking into the playoffs are getting slimmer by the week. The possibility is still there as only Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have winning records in the race for the two Wild Card spots. Buffalo had its chance to upset the Patriots but a costly interception with just 23 seconds remaining ended the comeback attempt. The Bills outgained the Patriots by 134 total yards but turnovers did them in.
The Dolphins have dropped two in a row and they were exposed on Sunday against lowly Tennessee. It was the fifth straight game that Miami got outgained and the seventh time in nine games on the season so despite being just a game under .500, it has been pretty fortunate along the way. The Dolphins are 2-3 on the road with the wins coming against the Jets and Bengals despite getting outgained in both games as turnovers were the difference. Despite all of this, Miami is a very slight road underdog once again. This game will come down to how the Bills can recover from that heartbreaking loss in New England. Heading home definitely will help as will the fact that it has already been announced that the game is sold out which is a big gain for Buffalo. While the recovery is a question, the same can be said for the Dolphins as their loss was much worse and might be even tough to recover from since it is a very young team and once that has not had to bounce back on the road after a big loss. Miami is just 26th in the NFL in total offense and 25th in scoring offense. The rushing game has been horrible of late as the Dolphins have not had 100 rushing yards in any game since Week Three. In their past six games they are averaging a mere 72 rushing ypg. Buffalo's defense is suspect but it should be fine here. On the other side, the Bills will be without Fred Jackson but C.J. Spiller can more than make up for it. Over the last four games, he has totaled over 100 yards rushing and receiving combined. This is a must win game for both sides and we give the edge to the home team on a Thursday night with a very small line. Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games coming off two straight up losses as a favorite while Buffalo is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. The Bills won this season against Kansas City after getting pummeled on the road in New York against the Jets after a -3 turnover margin. 10* (306) Buffalo Bills |
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11-12-12 | Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Kansas City comes into this game with a 1-7 record following another disappointing performance last Thursday at San Diego. The Chiefs actually once again did not play bad but they were hurt by turnovers as they had four miscues and it was the seventh time in eight games they have been on the wrong side of the turnover battle. That has obviously hurt both sides of the ball as despite being near the bottom of the NFL in points scored and allowed, they are 16th and 17th in total offense and total defense respectively.
The Steelers are very heavy favorites in this game as they have won three straight games and are looking good to make another serious playoff push. This is a horrible spot in my opinion though as Pittsburgh is coming off a huge win last week in New York against the Giants and it has a game on deck with Baltimore next week which will have huge implications in the AFC North. The Steelers have no interest in this game so we will not be seeing their best effort Monday night. How bad have turnovers hurt the Chiefs? Despite being 1-7, they are outgaining opponents by 10.5 ypg which is 11th best in the NFL. So obviously they have hurt quite a bit. Handicapping turnovers is a tough thing to do since there is no basis for it as a lot of that comes down to luck and being in the right place at the right time or vice versa. The Steelers used to be a ball-hawking defense but that is not the case anymore as they finished last in the AFC in takeaways last year and have just eight this year. The key for Kansas City tonight will be to establish a running game and not give it up. While the Steelers defense is tops in the NFL, their rushing defense has been a weakness. They have allowed only 100 yards once this season but teams are not trying to run which is the reason as Pittsburgh has seen the third fewest amount of rushing attempts in the league. The Steelers are allowing a rather high 4.0 ypc and with the Chiefs averaging 4.7 ypc on offense, they can definitely take advantage. The weather is not looking great tonight so that should favor the underdog as poor conditions tend to shorten games which is a benefit for big underdogs. Kansas City falls into numerous positive situations and one that stands out in fact has to do with turnovers as we play on road underdogs of 10.5 or more points with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse on the season, after a game where they committed four or more turnovers. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (239) Kansas City Chiefs |
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11-11-12 | Houston Texans +1 v. Chicago Bears | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 102 h 57 m | Show | |
Chicago played one of its most complete games of the season last week against the Titans as the game was over before the first quarter horn sounded. The defense and special teams were outstanding and after scoring 51 points, many will feel they will be a worthy wager this week laying less than a field goal at home. I am still not sold on the Bears. They have won the turnover battle in six of their eight games thanks to a schedule that ranks 29th in the NFL so they have been fortunate.
Houston entered its bye coming off a blowout win over Baltimore. Last week the Texans certainly didn't play their best game against the Bills but they didn't have to as they were still able to win and cover despite a subpar effort. The offense is now ranked 12th overall and second on scoring while the defense is ranked third overall and fourth in scoring so this is a very balanced team on both sides. The key is not turning the ball over as Houston has only six giveaways which is the fewest in the NFL. The Bears have been able to put up a lot of points as they have scored 34 or more points in half of their games. The problem is they have scored 23 points or less in the other four games and getting points against a tough defense is going to be a challenge. Chicago has been outgained in four of its eight games this season and that doesn't happen to elite teams. Houston has been outgained only twice and one of those times was against Tennessee when the Titans got their yards during garbage time. Overall Chicago is 25th in total offense so when playing from a normal field, the Bears have had trouble moving the ball on a consistent basis. This has to be a concern considering the teams they have faced. Only one of Chicago's wins has come against a team with a winning record heading into Week 10, and Sunday begins a stretch where it plays seven of its final eight against opponents that currently possess a winning record. Real or fraud, we will see after Sunday. This is definitely a short price for the Bears art home but Houston has been one of the better road team of late. The Texans are 3-0 this season and going back they are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record. Also they are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after allowing fewer than 100 yards rushing in two straight games. Meanwhile the Bears are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. 9* (237) Houston Texans |
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11-11-12 | NY Jets +7 v. Seattle Seahawks | 7-28 | Loss | -120 | 101 h 41 m | Show | |
Of all the teams that have had byes this year, the Jets were arguably looking forward to theirs the most. After consecutive blowout home losses, New York responded with a big home win over the Colts but gave it right back with an overtime loss at New England. The Jets clearly let that one follow them around as they lost by 21 points at home to the Dolphins prior to their week off despite winning the yardage battle by 127 yards. New York has actually outgained each of its last three opponents.
Seattle is coming off another home win as it defeated Minnesota to move to a perfect 4-0 at CenturyLink Field. That victory snapped a two-game skid and moved the Seahawks back over .500 on the season and now the public action will continue to come in. Seattle was hammered with bets last week against the Vikings and because they came through, we can expect to see more of the same this week. The linesmakers did their job however as they moved this number up pretty high. The Jets can get the job done here by continuing to run the ball effectively which they should have no problem doing. Shonn Green has been the catalyst as in the last three games, he has averaged 118.3 ypg plus four touchdowns in that span. After averaging just 83 ypg in their first five games, the Jets have averaged 154.3 ypg over their last three games. Seattle has a defense that is ranked fourth overall but it allows 4.4 ypc which is 23rd in the NFL and this is where the Jets can help out Mark Sanchez in a big way. New York will be able to open up the passing game and keep the Seahawks defense honest if they commit to pounding the ball. On the other side, the Jets defense has been very inconsistent this year but they are coming off their best game before the bye and two of the tops games defensively have come in their last three games. Seattle also has been running the ball well but overall, it offense is just 29th overall and 24th in points scored. You can bet the Jets used the bye week to come up with a plan against Russell Wilson. Listen to the media and the Jets are done but they are far from done as the playoff picture in the AFC is completely wide open. New York is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games coming off a home divisional loss and it falls into a solid contrarian situation as we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 36-6 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (231) New York Jets |
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11-11-12 | Denver Broncos v. Carolina Panthers +4.5 | Top | 36-14 | Loss | -105 | 99 h 32 m | Show |
This is certainly not the best of spots for Denver as it is coming off a road win at Cincinnati last week and now has to travel back east once again to take on Carolina. The Broncos have a showdown with San Diego next week so they can certainly be in lookahead mode but the fact that they are on the road for a second consecutive week is what makes this one a go. Denver has won three straight, scoring more than 30 points in each, and that is a go against if ever there was one.
Carolina is coming off a much needed victory as it had dropped five straight games prior to the victory at Washington last week. That skid started with a blowout loss against the Giants but the next four games all could have gone either way as the four defeats came by five points or fewer and by an average of 3.0 ppg. Carolina is clearly the best 2-6 team in football as they are outgaining opponent by an average of 1.9 ypg which is small but no other team that is at least four games under .500 can claim that. The Panthers offense should be able to feed off their solid game last week and have some solid success at home. Many will be questioning how the Carolina defense will stop Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense and my answer is keep playing like it has. Since Carolina fell to Atlanta 30-28 in Week Four, the Panthers' defense has been one of the league's best, ranking fourth in total defense, allowing just 292.3 ypg and pass defense, allowing 189.0 ypg and fifth in points allowed with only 17.8 ppg. I played against Denver last week and it was able to escape despite getting outgained by the Bengals. The Broncos are a highly public betting team right now as they have posted a 5-3 ATS mark including wins in their last two games on the road. We have seen the value be completely depleted from Denver and last week was one of those games where we were arguably on the right side of the wager but ended with a bad result. The home underdog once again gets the call today. Play against road favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging 370 ypg or more on offense going up against teams that are allowing between 335 and 370 ypg on defense. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1983. Carolina has thrive in situations like this as it is 12-2 ATS in it last 14 home games against teams that are averaging 375 or more ypg. In addition, the Broncos are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 30 or more points in three straight games. 10* (222) Carolina Panthers |
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11-11-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. New Orleans Saints +3 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 98 h 6 m | Show |
Atlanta once again was able to avoid its first loss of the season as it defeated the Cowboys and got the frontdoor cover thanks to a field goal with 17 seconds remaining. The Falcons hit the road once again where they are 4-0 on the season but three of those wins came against some very disappointing opposition. The same can be said about this week's foe but the further we get into the season with that unblemished record, the more amped the other team is going to be to stop that streak.
We can definitely say New Orleans is at the top of that list. The Saints and Falcons have become pretty big rivals and with New Orleans being at the top of the division two of the last three years and Atlanta claiming the other year, it has turned bitter. The Saints have struggled to a 3-5 start this season but after opening 0-4, they have started to catch a little bit of fire with wins in three of their last four games. The playoffs were once a distant dream but that is no longer the case anymore as New Orleans is right back in it. The Falcons have played a schedule ranked 28th in the NFL by Sagarin so you would think they have been dominating. Well, they haven't. While winning is what counts, it is a very below average 8-0 team and Sagarin backs that up with the Falcons sitting sixth in his power rankings. The Falcons are outgaining opponents by just 20.3 ypg. Looking at rankings, Atlanta is eighth in total offense and 19th in total defense and last year's 10-6 team actually had a better average ranking (10th and 12th respectively). New Orleans still possesses one of the best offense in the NFL as it is ranked fifth in total offense and eighth in scoring offense and put the ball in Drew Brees' hands on his home turf is a scary thought for the opponent. The Saints have two home losses this year to a couple bad teams in Washington and Kansas City but they did have chances to win both of those games but the defense was horrific both times out. That will be an issue with some again here but the switch may have finally been flipped. The Saints defense responded when it needed to against the Eagles on Monday and they can feed off that effort. That unit is part of a great situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.4 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983. The Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against winning teams and 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg on offense. 10* (228) New Orleans Saints |
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11-08-12 | Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 54 m | Show |
We saw a similar situation with Indianapolis a few weeks back when it defeated Green Bay at home which happened to be the first game for the Colts after finding out head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia. They won that game for him. Flash forward to this past Sunday and the Colts were winners at home once again and this time Pagano was in the locker room after the game and gave a very emotional speech to the players and that win will be tough to play after, especially on such a short week.
Jacksonville is coming off its fifth straight loss as it was defeated by Detroit as it fell behind 24-0 and could not recover. The Jaguars are now 1-7 on the season but they find themselves in the national spotlight on Thursday so they will certainly come to play. We saw another similar situation last season when they were 1-5 and had a Monday night home game against the Ravens which they won outright as 10-point underdogs. Two of Jacksonville's losses this year came in overtime so it has not been horrible. The Colts are now 5-3 on the season which is certainly one of the biggest turnarounds from last season after winning just two games. Indianapolis has won three straight games but it has to be one of the most average teams in the NFL that possesses a winning record. Two of the three losses have come by 20 points or more while all five wins have come by four points or less or in overtime. Five of the first eight games have come at home and both of those 20-point losses in fact took place on the highway. The Colts have been moving the ball very well on offense but have little to show for it as they have turned the ball over and have failed to finish off drives which has led to field goals. They are 23rd in scoring offense and they are also 23rd in scoring defense. The Jaguars offense has been pathetic at times to say the least as turnovers have not helped along the way. The good news here is that the Colts defense has forced only three takeaways all season which is by far the fewest in the NFL. We often see underdogs go to favorites and vice versa in college football from week to week but it is more rare in the NFL but we are seeing it this week as the Colts go from a home underdog to a road favorite. This dynamic goes into a situation going against the Colts as we play against favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 69-32 ATS (68.3 percent) since 1983. in addition, Indianapolis is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games against losing teams. 10* (106) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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11-04-12 | Dallas Cowboys +4.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -115 | 84 h 43 m | Show |
Dallas is coming off another disappointing loss as it fought back from a 23-0 deficit to the Giants to take the lead only to give it back again in the fourth quarter. This was the Cowboys second in their last three games where they had a chance to win but could not come through in the end. The worst part is that Dallas outgained New York by 141 yards and outgained Baltimore by 165 yards but it lost the turnover battle both times. The Cowboys continue to waste talent but that changes here.
We bet against the Falcons last week but the Eagles failed to show up yet again as they fell behind by 14 points early and were unable to recover. Atlanta remains the only undefeated team in the NFL at 7-0 and while winning is what counts, it is arguably one of the worst 7-0 teams you will see based on statistics. The Falcons are outgaining opponents by just 12.4 ypg and they have been outgained in three of their seven games. That is not good against Dallas which has been outgained only twice by 16 and 19 yards. Dallas has won the turnover battle in only one of its seven games this season and that is obviously the reason for its poor record. The Cowboys are seventh in the NFL in total offense and fourth in total defense yet are just 23rd and 18th in points scored and points allowed respectively. Despite a high powered offense, they have scored more than 24 points only once this season. Expect to see a balanced offensive attack against Atlanta that is not very good in either defensive category. The Falcons are ranked 20th in total defense but have allowed the seventh fewest amount of points as the turnover issue is just the opposite for them. They have yet to lose the turnover battle in any game this season which is pretty impressive this late into the season. Even the offense is pretty average as Atlanta is 13th overall but has played from short fields a lot of the times. The Falcons have played only one team currently ranked in the top half of the league as they have played the 31st ranked schedule. Dallas needs to fins a way to close the door and this is the perfect opportunity to do it. The Falcons are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games after three or more consecutive wins while going 0-6 ATS in their last six games after outgaining their opponent by 100 or more yards last game. Also, we play against home teams after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, in November games. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (437) Dallas Cowboys |
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11-04-12 | Chicago Bears v. Tennessee Titans +4 | Top | 51-20 | Loss | -115 | 95 h 15 m | Show |
Chicago came away with a big win over Carolina on Sunday as it got away with a pretty bad game to pull out the victory. I played against the Bears then and will be playing against them again here as this is a horrible spot on Sunday. They were outgained by 206 total yards against the Panthers but were able to take advantage of miscues late in the game. Coming off that last second victory and now hits the road as a favorite with games against San Francisco and Houston on deck puts Chicago in a brutal situation.
Tennessee had won two straight games before dropping its game in overtime against Indianapolis this past Sunday. The Titans dropped to 3-5 on the season but with only three other non-division leaders in the AFC above .500, the season is far from done. The schedule is not very demanding the rest of the way so getting back into the playoff picture is far from out of the question. The Titans next two games are on the road with a bye week sandwiched in-between so taking care of things here is a must. The Titans defense has started to play a lot better of late. After allowing 30 points or more in their first five games, they have allowed an average of 25.3 ppg over their last three games and while that is still pretty poor compared to NFL standards, any improvement is a good one. Tennessee should not have to worry about much here as Chicago's offense has been pretty pedestrian as it is ranked 26th in total offense and even though the ppg average is high, that is due to only three games. The Bears defense has carried them this season as they are ranked seventh overall and second in points allowed. Again, it has come down to just a few games against some pretty bad teams that has skewed the overall numbers. Tennessee is definitely inconsistent on offense but it has shown the ability to put up some significant numbers. After putting up more than 325 yards only once in their first five games, the Titans have averaged 362.7 ypg over their last three games. Tennessee falls into a solid situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are being outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 113-66 ATS (63.1 percent) since 1983. The Titans are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring 15 or fewer points in their last game. Chicago meanwhile is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in its previous game while going 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games after three or more straight wins. 10* (430) Tennessee Titans |
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11-04-12 | Denver Broncos v. Cincinnati Bengals +4 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
After two straight primetime games with a bye week sandwiched in-between, the Broncos get back to a normal schedule as they play an early game on Sunday on the road. Denver scored 35 unanswered points to defeat San Diego on Monday night and then following a bye week, it took apart the Saints at home, winning by 20 points and outgaining New Orleans by 278 total yards. That puts the Broncos in a very difficult spot this week against a hungry team.
The Bengals are coming off their bye week and it came at the perfect time as they are riding a three-game losing streak which came right after a three-game winning streak. Cincinnati never should have lost to Cleveland or Miami as it outgained both opponents but turnovers were the difference as it had seven in the two games combined. The Bengals remain home next week as well as they face the Giants so coming away with two losses will drop them to 3-6 and very likely out of the playoff picture. After finishing seventh in total defense and ninth in scoring defense last season, the Bengals have slipped to 21st and 25th respectively this year. That is a pretty big drop but the defense has not been consistently bad and they have actually played very well in the majority of their games. Inconsistence is better than being consistently poor and coming off the bye week, I expect them to continue to improve. Denver is solid on offense with Peyton Manning but it has been very inconsistent with only two really big games. Denver's defense has gotten a lot better this year compared to last season but it is still giving up a substantial amount of points, especially early on in games. Cincinnati is coming off its worst game of the season as it gained only 185 yards against the Steelers. The last time the offense put up fewer than 300 yards, the Bengals bounced back next game and amassed 438 yards. The bounceback factor comes into play again here and playing in a substantial game, we should see the rebound take place. The Bengals are in a good bounceback spot as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. They also fall into a great situation where we play against road teams that are averaging more than 370 ypg on offense after outgaining their last opponent by 200 or more total yards in their previous game, going up against a team allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (416) Cincinnati Bengals |
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11-01-12 | Kansas City Chiefs +9.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -132 | 53 h 35 m | Show |
San Diego was unfortunate last week as it was forced to play in tough weather conditions and lost in Cleveland 7-6. Even giving them a mulligan for that game, the Chargers are not playing good at all and there is no reason for them to be favored by this many points, especially in a divisional game. San Diego has now lost three straight games and that loss against the Broncos three weeks ago where they blew a 24-0 lead is going to stick with them for a while. A return home is good but it has dropped two straight at Qualcomm.
We lost with the Chiefs this past Sunday as they played good enough to win but could not overcome four turnovers. It was the sixth time in seven games that Kansas City lost the turnover battle and it has lost all of those by a least two so things have not been good in that aspect. The Chiefs are 29th in the NFL in both scoring offense and scoring defense but those rankings improve to 11th and 18th respectively in total offense and total defense so they have done well but it is the turnovers that have made them stall. The Chiefs scored 17 or more points in each of their first four games but have failed to get to that number in any of their last three games. The San Diego defense has been all over the place this year and while it is ranked ninth in scoring and tenth overall, two games against the Titans and Browns have skewed those rankings. The defense has forced one or no turnovers in five of their seven games this season so they have not been able to give their offense a break. San Diego is only 25th in total offense this season and it is in the bottom half of the league in both rushing and passing. Yes they are balanced but a bad balance does the Chargers no good. People may think catching the Chiefs defense will help turn things around but Kansas City has allowed more than 400 total yards only once this season so while the point totals are up, the defense has been decent. Kansas city has won the yardage battle in five of seven games this season. Kansas City lost the first meeting against San Diego and it was attributed to what else, turnovers. They turned it over six times and there is no way to recover from that. The Chiefs fall into a great revenge situation as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a home loss against a division rival. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1983. The Chiefs are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight games. 10* (301) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-29-12 | San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals +7.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Monday night home underdogs are a perfect 2-0 ATS this season with Seattle winning outright over the Packers and the Jets covering against Houston. The former obviously never should have taken place and going back the last few years, Monday night home underdogs are not what they used to be. Still, this number is completely out of line as the 49ers go from a seven-point home favorite to close to a seven-point road favorite in the span of just one week. There is no way the adjustment should be that big.
After starting the season 4-0, Arizona has dropped its last three games. I for one have been against the Cardinals in all three of those games but actually did not play that poorly in any of those games. It can be proven by the fact that Arizona outgained its opponent in all three of those games despite being on the short end of the scoreboard. Last week was especially tough as the Cardinals outgained Minnesota by 147 total yards but still lost by a touchdown. Those three losses are giving us value here. The 49ers defense is ranked first overall and second in points allowed but they are again playing at a very high level. But they have not looked as dominant as last season though. San Francisco is 10th in rushing defense but after allowing just 318 yards on 98 carries (3.2 ypc) in its first four games, it has allowed 374 yards on 85 caries (4.4 ypc) in its last three games. The 49ers have allowed 285 yards rushing the last two games and this is an area that Arizona has to take advantage of. San Francisco's offense is ranked ninth overall but just 16th in scoring as it has been unable to finish drives. It is ranked 19th in third down conversions and the 49ers should continue to struggle against an underrated Arizona defense that is allowing opponents to convert just 30.6 percent of their third down attempts, good for sixth best in the NFL. Overall the Cardinals seven in total defense and fourth in scoring defense so it will take a huge effort from the 49ers to break through which I do not see happening. This is not a very good spot for the 49ers either as they have just enjoyed three straight home games and the last game sets them up for a fall as they are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after allowing six points or less last game. Arizona meanwhile is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss and under head coach Ken Whisenhunt, the Cardinals are 13-4 ATS in their 17 games against teams outscoring opponents by six or more ppg. An outright victory is not too farfetched here. 10* (244) Arizona Cardinals |
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10-28-12 | Oakland Raiders v. Kansas City Chiefs -1 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -117 | 103 h 10 m | Show |
The Raiders were able to come back from a big deficit against Jacksonville and pull out a win in overtime. It was just their second win of the season and a victory like that spells letdown even though this is a divisional game that seems to be winnable. Oakland has lost all three road games this year by an average of 18.7 ppg and while it is coming off its best effort in its last game at Atlanta, that was more of the Falcons not even showing up. Expect the opposite for the home team this week.
Kansas City's bye week could not have come sooner as it has been a struggle for the Chiefs early this season. They come into this game with a 1-5 record but they have not played as bas as that record shows. Kansas City outgained all of its first five opponents despite losing four of those games. Even with the poor record, the Chiefs are favored here for the first time this season which shows the situation at hand and the team they are playing. It is now must win time before games at San Diego and Pittsburgh on deck. The Raiders win was no doubt a big confidence booster and this team has the talent to compete in the division but they are simply too undisciplined. Too many penalties and too many turnovers on offense have hurt them in close games by not being able to win as well as blowout losses that could have been closer. Oakland is 18th and 17th in total offense and total defense respectively so it is below average on both sides which isn't helping matters either. The issue for the Chiefs this season is turnovers as they have lost the turnover battle in all but one game and that was wash. Because of this, the offense is struggling to score while the defense is unable to hold teams back because of the situations it is put in. Kansas City is 29th in points scored and 30th in points allowed but a much better eighth in total offense and 15th in total defense which clearly shows how turnovers can skew things. The Raiders are not opportunistic on defense though. This has been the case for a while now as Oakland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a turnover margin of -1.5 per game or worse. Also, Oakland is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 games against teams that are getting outscored by 10 or more ppg on the season. Kansas City meanwhile is 6-0 ATS in its last six games coming off a road loss by two or more touchdowns while head coach Romeo Crennel is 16-3 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game. 10* (238) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-28-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Philadelphia Eagles -1 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 100 h 10 m | Show |
Atlanta comes into this week as the lone remaining undefeated team in the NFL as the Falcons are 6-0 and coming off their bye week. The bye arguably came at a very bad time for Atlanta as it was riding a lot of momentum with their six wins to open the season and now they have to travel and face a team that is in desperate need of a win. Atlanta is 3-0 on the road and overall the schedule it has played is ranked dead last in the NFL in strength. This will be the toughest test to date.
There have been a few changes for the Eagles as they come out of their bye week. Most notably, they have a new defensive coordinator as Juan Castillo was let go and replaced by Todd Bowles. The defense wasn't horrible though as the Eagles have surrendered 20.8 ppg, 11th fewest among NFL defenses. They've given up 226.3 passing ypg and 104.5 rushing ypg, both of which are 15th in the league. A lot of the issues was with the offense turning the ball over and giving the opponents short fields. After last season's high expectations, the Eagles came in with high expectations again this year and once again, they are not coming through. After a last second loss to Pittsburgh, Philadelphia blew another lead and lost to Detroit in overtime so the bye week was excellent timing. As mentioned, turnover have been the big issue but the case can be made for the other side as well now as the Falcons have turned the ball over five times over their last three games. None of the Falcons |
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10-28-12 | Carolina Panthers +9 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 100 h 57 m | Show |
Chicago picked up a big divisional win on Monday night against the Lions but it really was a game that it should have lost. The Bears went down the field on their first drive and scored a touchdown, their only time they were able to find the endzone and the defense had to bail them out again. Detroit shot itself in the foot as it came away empty in its first three attempts in the redzone, twice turning it over, so the Bears were fortunate in that regard. After that big win, getting up for the Panthers will be tough.
While the Bears moved to 5-1, the Panthers fell to 1-5 after a loss to the Cowboys. It has been a tough season for Carolina to pick up wins but it's not like it hasn't been competitive. The Panthers have lost four of their five games by six points or less including both games played on the road. They made a move this week as they fired their general manager to try and provide some sort of spark and at this point, a change like that is beneficial. Look for a very inspired effort this week. The Bears defense is allowing a paltry 62.7 quarterback rating, the lowest average rating in the league. However, taking a look at the quarterbacks they have faced shows they have played some of the most immobile quarterbacks in the league. Cam Newton brings a different element to the game as his ability to get away from pressure and get downfield is a great way to loosen up that defense. As long as his attitude is in the right direction, he remains a very dangerous quarterback. Chicago's offense struggled against the Lions and this is not a very good offense right now. The Bears may have the eighth highest amount of points scored on average but they are just 22nd in total offense as they have mustered more than 360 total yards only twice. Taking advantage of opportunities coming from turnovers has been the difference so if that dries up, so will the points scored on offense. Carolina gave it away five time against the Giants but have only eight turnovers in its other five games. Speaking of turnovers, Chicago is just 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after a game where it won the turnover battle by four or more. Also, the Bears fall into a negative situation where we play against home teams that are +2.5 or more in turnover margin after a game where they forced four or more turnovers going against a team creating fewer than 1.25 tpg. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. Meanwhile Carolina is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. 10* (233) Carolina Panthers |
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10-25-12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Minnesota Vikings -6.5 | Top | 36-17 | Loss | -104 | 52 h 24 m | Show |
Minnesota came away with the victory this past Sunday and we will ride the Vikings once again. They did not play well at all against the Cardinals as they were outgained by 147 total yards but were fortunate to turn an interception into a touchdown return and the defense was able to hold tough when needed. The victory moved Minnesota to a perfect 4-0 at home and playing at home again this week is a big edge. The Vikings have a tough game at Seattle on deck which makes this one pretty big.
The Buccaneers are coming off a tough home loss against the Saints as they blew an early 14-0 lead and dropped to 2-4 in the process. Tampa Bay definitely could have a better record at this point as all four of its losses have come by a touchdown or less including both games on the road at Dallas and New York. Those scores were deceiving however as the Buccaneers were outgained by a total of 428 yards as it was pretty clear the home team was not prepared. That will not be the case this week. The Minnesota defense is once again playing at a high level as it is ranked ninth overall and sixth in points allowed. The Vikings have allowed more than 14 points only once in their last five games and that run should continue here. The Tampa Bay offense is ranked 11th in points scored but just 20th in total offense as it has been fortunate to be on the wrong side of the turnover battle just once in six games. Playing efficient on offense is important but the Buccaneers have not taken advantage. The Thursday setup has favored home teams when their last game was at home as the travel aspect is a big advantage seeing they do not have to do it. A short week is hard enough but when a travel day is thrown in, it takes its toll on the road team. The home team has won the last four Thursday night games and five of the six on the season. The edge is even greater in this matchup as Tampa Bay has not left home since September 23rd as it has played three home games with a bye mixed in as well. The Vikings will be playing with revenge after losing at home last season to Tampa Bay. It was a tough loss on top of it as the Vikings blew a 17-0 lead and allowed the winning touchdown with just 31 seconds remaining so they will be out for payback. They fall into a great situation as we play against underdogs or pickems that are allowing 5.4 or more yppl, after gaining 450 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (104) Minnesota Vikings |
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10-22-12 | Detroit Lions +7 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a big divisional game for both sides as Detroit and Chicago look to keep pace in the very competitive NFC North. Both Minnesota and Green Bay won yesterday making the Lions the team needing to make the biggest jump as they currently are two games behind the leaders. Last week's victory at Philadelphia was a huge one as not only was it a big come from behind victory but it gave Detroit some much needed confidence going forward which seemed to have been missing.
The Bears are off to a great start as a loss in Green Bay has been their only blemish. Chicago has been doing it with defense as it has allowed a league-low 71 points through its first five games. The schedule has been suspect however as the only two difficult teams is has faced have been the Cowboys and Packers, both of which are underachieving, and the Bears were outgained in both of those. The Bears have won all four of their games by 16 or more points which is helping us with the line here. The Lions can be tossed into that underachieving group as a 2-3 start is not what was expected coming into the season. The thing is they have not played that badly as a road loss to Tennessee came in overtime despite them outgaining the Titans by 146 total yards and then the next week, Detroit lost to Minnesota at home by a touchdown despite outgaining the Vikings by 114 total yards. Detroit is second in the NFL in total offense and ninth in total defense which are both extremely solid. We can also make the argument that the Bears are overachieving. The defense is very strong as mentioned as they are third overall and fist in fewest points allowed. That has helped the offense to score the second most points heading into Week Seven but also helping is fact are turnovers which have led to short field for the offense. Despite scoring a lot of points, Chicago is just 20th in the league in total offense and while Detroit gained momentum from last week, the Bears lost theirs because of the bye week. The Lions have giving up a ton of points because of turnovers but they fall into a great situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems with a defense that is allowing 27 or more ppg. This situation is 66-35 ATS (65.3 percent) over the last five seasons. When facing a strong defense, the Lions have flourished as they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams allowing 70 or fewer ypg on the ground. Chicago meanwhile is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. 10* (437) Detroit Lions |
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10-21-12 | Arizona Cardinals v. Minnesota Vikings -6 | Top | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 123 h 35 m | Show |
The Vikings are coming off a tough road loss at Washington despite outgaining the Redskins 421-361 and that even includes Robert Griffin III's 76-yard run so Minnesota had them bottled up most of the game. Three turnovers did them in though and now they are sitting at 4-2, a half-game back of the Bears in the NFC North. Minnesota heads home for this game and then a quick turnaround for a Thursday game at home so coming off a loss, this is a much needed game.
Arizona has dropped two straight games and I will continue to fade the Cardinals as they are still being overvalued. Early money went against them which has driven this line from +4 to +5.5 and should keep going in that direction although that probably will not happen until later in the week. Getting the best possible line right now is the way to go so getting this out early is imperative. The Vikings are 3-0 at home and while wins over the Jaguars and Titans are not impressive, the win over the 49ers makes up for those. The Cardinals offense has been horrible this season and to their defense, injuries have played a big role. They have no running game as their top two backs are out for the season while there has been no stability at quarterback due to injuries as well. Buffalo had allowed 97 points and 1,201 yards against the Patriots and 49ers in its two previous games but Arizona was only able to muster 16 points and 332 yards. The Cardinals are ranked 26th in scoring offense and 31st in total offense. The Minnesota defense is again a dominant force as the Vikings are ranked ninth in scoring and eighth overall and last week they held the Redskins to their second lowest output on the season. The best work has come at home where the last two games Minnesota has allowed 267 and 280 yards to the Titans and 49ers respectively. On the other side, quarterback Christian Ponder has been solid with a quarterback rating of 92.4 which is ninth in the NFL but the rushing games is still a very potent unit. The issue the past week was redzone struggles as three times the Vikings drove deep into Redskins' territory during the first quarter and three times they settled for field goals, each missed opportunity more disappointing than the previous one. That is something they should turn around at home. Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 30 points or more in their previous game while the Cardinals are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (418) Minnesota Vikings |
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10-21-12 | Baltimore Ravens v. Houston Texans -6 | Top | 13-43 | Win | 100 | 122 h 13 m | Show |
Houston has taken some early money and this line has risen slightly from its opener as the Texans look to rebound from their first loss of the season. They were manhandled by Green Bay on Sunday night, getting outgained by over 100 total yards, and even the final margin of 18 points was not as close as the game played out as Houston was able to make it that respectable with a blocked punt for a touchdown late in the game. The Texans have their bye next week so a rebound performance is imperative.
The Ravens won their fourth straight game with a victory over the Cowboys that was pretty much handed to them. Dallas had a chance to tie the game but dropped a two-point conversion and after recovering the onside kick, the Cowboys missed a 51-yard field goal with two second left. Three of the four wins during this stretch have come by three points or less and two of those were decided on last second field goal attempts that both went Baltimore's way. The Ravens also go into their bye but the spot is much tougher. The win over the Cowboys was a big one for Baltimore as it kept it in first place in the AFC North by two games over the Bengals and two and a half games over the Steelers but in the grand scheme of things, it could be considered a loss. The Ravens lost linebacker Ray Lewis for the rest of the season with a torn triceps but not maybe even more important is that they also lost cornerback Lardarius Webb for the season with a torn ACL. That one will be extremely tough to overcome. The Ravens defense was third in the NFL last season but they have dropped to 26th in total defense this season so the injuries have only added to the problems. The Texans have to take advantage as they have been just going through the motions in their last two home games against Tennessee and Green Bay as they gained just 297 and 321 total yards respectively. They are fifth in the NFL in scoring offense and will certainly need to take advantage of the matchup edges in this one. The Texans first ever trip to the playoffs ended in Baltimore last season as they lost by a touchdown despite winning the yardage battle 315-227. Turnovers were the difference and now it will be revenge time for Houston. The Texans are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing fewer than 100 yards rushing in two straight games while going 14-4 ATS in their last 18 conference games while Baltimore is 0-4 in its last four games against conference opponents. 10* (422) Houston Texans |
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10-21-12 | Washington Redskins +6.5 v. NY Giants | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 122 h 7 m | Show |
Washington won on Sunday at home against Minnesota and now it heads to New York to play its first divisional game of the season. The Redskins are 3-3 to start the season which isn't horrible after a disappointing 5-11 season a year ago. Each of the three losses were by a touchdown or less so not only are they playing well but they are staying competitive in the games they are losing. Only five of their 11 losses last season were by a touchdown or less and the confidence building win over the Vikings moves forward.
The Giants are also coming off a victory and theirs was a big one as they defeated San Francisco on the road in the NFC Championship rematch. That was a huge win and it puts New York in arguably the spot as the team to now beat in the NFL. A trip out west and a return home is a tough grind and the Giants could be in for a letdown here despite this being a divisional game against a longtime rival. This is a better Washington team the Giants are facing than last year yet are favored by more this season. Robert Griffin III is proving to be a great pick for Washington as he is coming off another great game where he was responsible for three touchdowns. He is coming off his third highest quarterback rating but he has yet to put up a bad game which is rare for a rookie. Overall he has a 100.5 rating which is third best in the NFL behind Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. The Giants defense put up another solid game but they are still 19th in the NFL in total defense. Washington has struggled on defense all season as defensive coordinator Jim Haslett has lost top pass-rusher Brian Orakpo, one of his top run-stoppers in Adam Carriker, and his anticipated starting strong safety in Brandon Meriweather. He came through with a great gameplan against Minnesota as the bend-don't-break philosophy panned out as the Redskins held the Vikings without a touchdown for nearly three and a half quarters. This will certainly be another challenge but far from undoable. The rushing game for Washington will come into play here. Griffin had a 76-yard touchdown run against the Vikings so the numbers got skewed somewhat but this is still one of the best rushing teams in the NFL as the unit is ranked second overall and second in per carry average at 5.2 ypc. Washington is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game while the Giants are 3-11 in their last 14 home games after allowing fewer than 100 yards rushing in two straight games. 10* (427) Washington Redskins |
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10-18-12 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -7 | Top | 6-13 | Push | 0 | 77 h 35 m | Show |
The 49ers laid an egg at home against the Giants and that makes this spot so much better for them. They were dominant in their previous two games against the Jets and Bills as they allowed just three points while scoring a combined 70 points. It was just the opposite in their NFC Championship rematch against the Giants but now they are in a bounceback spot in a divisional game where they currently sit in a three-way tie with the Cardinals and the Seahawks so we will see a very inspired effort.
Seattle continues to be very impressive at home as it is now 3-0 with big wins over Dallas, Green Bay and New England. That is certainly a very impressive and to be honest, the Seahawks feasibly could be 6-0 right now as losses against Arizona and St. Louis could have gone the other way. The fact of the matter though is coming off a last second comeback win at home and travelling on a short week spells disaster especially against a team that is pissed off. We saw a Seattle letdown after its last home win as it went into St. Louis and lost to the Rams as road favorites. Granted, the number is much different this time around but the situation is as well. Not only are the Seahawks in a difficult travel spot but facing a team coming off a loss makes it more of a challenge. Seattle is coming off a road win in its last game but that was at Carolina so the step up in class is huge. The Seahawks have had a big home field edge over the year and it is evident this year but the road is difficult. The Thursday setup has favored home teams when their last game was at home as the travel aspect is a big advantage seeing they do not have to do it. A short week is hard enough but when a travel day is thrown in, it takes its toll on the road team. The home team has won the last three Thursday night games and four of the five on the season. This is the second time we have the spot with a team at home coming off a home loss with the first being the Packers taking out the Bears after losing to San Francisco. San Francisco is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games coming off a loss as a favorite and it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games overall. Seattle is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog of fewer than nine points and coming off a win when playing a team coming off a loss as a favorite. Also, we play against road teams that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 47-20 ATS (70.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (304) San Francisco 49ers |
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10-14-12 | Green Bay Packers +4 v. Houston Texans | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 125 h 23 m | Show | |
Not many saw this coming from the Packers this season and not many saw this coming from the Packers in the second half last week against the Colts. Green Bat built an 18-point lead at halftime and instead of running away with the game, it folded and allowed Indianapolis to mount an improbable comeback over the final 30 minutes. The Packers are now 2-3 which is the second time they have been below .500 this season and also just the second time since 2008.
The Texans are coming off a win on Monday night against the Jets to remain one of only two undefeated teams in the NFL. They haven't exactly played a killer schedule though as they have faced the 30th ranked slate in the NFL so 5-0 is not that big of a surprise. Houston has not totally dominated either as it may have some big margins of victory, but it has outgained only one opponent by more than 92 yards. The defense is solid, sitting at fourth in total defense but the offense is a pedestrian 14th overall. The Packers came into the season as of one two Super Bowl favorites in the NFC but that is not the case anymore. The 49ers remain there but Falcons have moved up the ladder while Green Bay searches for answers. The goal was to improve a defense that slipped dead last overall last season and the defense has in fact gotten better but now it is the offense that has slipped After finishing third in total offense a year ago, Green Bay is down to 16th in that category this year but it is not time to panic. The Packers had one bad game on offense which came at Seattle but that was a game they should have won still. The offense will be challenged this week against Houston but it comes down to basic execution. But despite all their issues, Packers head coach Mike McCarthy described his team as "confident, disappointed" while acknowledging the "contradiction there." The loss of running back Cedric Benson certainly hurts but now that means Aaron Rodgers has to step up. We are catching a good line early in the week and with the Packers struggles, we likely are not going to see this fall below 3.5 points. They have had success in this type of spot before as they are 6-0 ATS in road games under McCarthy against teams allowing 17 or fewer ppg, they also fall into a simple yet potent situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 that are coming off a road loss. This situation is 89-45 ATS (66.4 percent) since 1983. 9* (231) Green Bay Packers |
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10-14-12 | Indianapolis Colts v. NY Jets -3 | Top | 9-35 | Win | 100 | 118 h 28 m | Show |
The Jets are coming off a tough loss Monday night against Houston as they had opportunities to get the job done but mistakes once again did them in. they have dropped two straight games, both at home, against two of the elite teams in the league. This is their third straight home game and if ever there was a must win spot, this is it. Falling to 2-4 before heading for a big divisional game at New England is something they cannot let happen and in this situation, they won't.
The Colts meanwhile are coming off an improbable win at home against Green Bay. They trailed by 18 points at halftime but were able to mount the comeback and eventually won the game in the final minute. It was a tough week for Indianapolis with everything that went on with their head coach and providing the win in Chuck Pagano's honor was enormous. Now the Colts are in a huge emotional letdown and while confidence is sky high, they will not have enough in the tank come this Sunday. A lot of positives can be taken from the Colts victory but it was far from a perfect performance. The Indianapolis offense was pretty pedestrian to start the game, failing to score a first half touchdown while registering just three points. It was a different team in the second as the offense opened things up while the defense shut down the Packers offense for the most part in the second half. A lot of that can be blamed on Green Bay though as something is just not right with the unit. The Jets defense played very well against Houston, allowing only 209 yards through the air which was very solid with Darrelle Revis out for the season. New York was gashed by Arian Foster who ran for 152 yards but it will not have to worry much around the rushing game this weekend. Donald Brown has a good game but the Colts bring in the 19th ranked rushing offense. Andrew Luck showed why he is going to be a superstar but we will not see a repeat performance. It can be argued the Jets come out flat following their Monday night games but they have been solid in these spots, going 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 Sunday games following a Monday game the previous week. Indianapolis meanwhile is 0-12 ATS in its last 12 games against losing teams and we play against underdogs or pickems that are allowing 5.4 or more yppl, after gaining 450 or more ypg over their last two games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (212) New York Jets |
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10-14-12 | Detroit Lions +5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 118 h 16 m | Show |
Detroit is coming off its bye week and it came at the best possible time. The Lions entered their week off on a three-game losing streak and they feasibly had a chance to win the last two games. The last game against Minnesota they were hurt by two special teams touchdowns as they outgained the Vikings by 114 yards. Detroit outgained Tennessee by 146 yards prior to that but lost in overtime. This has turned into a very big game with a divisional contest on deck at Chicago.
The Eagles were involved in yet another close game as the lost to the Steelers on a last second field goal. It was the fourth game that was decided by two points or less and turnovers were the story once again as Philadelphia gave it up twice while failing to create any turnovers on defense. To their credit, the Eagles won three of those four close games but the loss to the Steelers stung. Bouncing back at home will be tough as Philadelphia has proven it cannot be trusted as a favorite. The Lions came into the season as a consensus overrated team and now sitting at 1-3, those opinions look to be have been true. As mentioned, they have not played bad though as they are a couple plays away of being .500 at worst. There have been too many miscommunications and too many missed assignments on the offensive line so the week provided a good time to shore up some of these mental issues. The offense is still one of the best in football and should again have success here. Defensively, the Lions have an opportunity to take advantage of the Eagles problems with giving up the ball. Detroit was one of the leading turnover-makers in football last season and it needs to get back to that to take some of the pressure off the offense of needing to think it has to simply outscore opponents. The Lions still possess a very solid defensive line and disrupting the Eagles offense, namely Michael Vick, will go a long way. His game provides the turning point. The Eagles are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games as they remain an extremely overvalued team. Detroit meanwhile is 4-1 ATS in its last five game as scoring less than 15 points it is previous game which includes an outright win in its only spot in that situation last season. Also, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 that are coming off a road loss by three points or less. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (219) Detroit Lions |
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10-14-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Cleveland Browns +3 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 118 h 10 m | Show |
We have an early revenge situation for the Browns which are still looking for their first win of the season. Cleveland remains the only winless team in the NFL but I still think the value is on the Browns this week and that is based on the fact they do not have a win yet. The Bengals were favored by seven points in that first meeting so based on the change of venue they should be a slight underdog here but the linesmakers were obviously forced to make them the favorites here.
Cleveland jumped on the Giants 14-0 early on Sunday but the defense was unable to hold back the New York offense but it catches a break this week. The Browns have faced two straight uptempo offenses and both of those came on the road so a return home against Cincinnati, which is ranked 15th in total offense, gives them a shot to turn it around. They best defensive performance came in their last home game where they allowed 344 total yards to the Bills. The Bengals are coming off a home loss against Miami which snapped their three-game winning streak. There was plenty of talk coming into the season that Cincinnati would take a step backward and while the three-game winning streak put an end to that, the loss to the Dolphins has brought it right back. The Bengals have not faced any potent offense yet they are ranked 18th in total defense and 21st in scoring defense. The Browns offense has been much better than advertised so far. Despite the fact it is winless, Cleveland is not ranked at the bottom of most power rankings as it has held its own in nearly every game with plenty of chances to win. One of those came in the first game against the Bengals as Cleveland actually outgained them and the difference ended up being an 81-yard punt return that the Bengals opened the scoring with. Cincinnati has owned the series of late with four straight win as well as victories in seven of the last eight but this spot provides a good opportunity to end it. The Cleveland offense and defense puts it into a solid situation here as we play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.4 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Browns are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. The underdog is on a 9-1-1 ATS run in the last 11 meetings in this series. 10* (210) Cleveland Browns |
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10-11-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans +6 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 54 h 3 m | Show |
Tennessee heads up the list of disappointing teams this season as its loss in Minnesota dropped the Titans to 1-4 on the year. There should be no excuses although the Titans have played a brutal schedule thus far as they have played the toughest slate in the league through the first five weeks of the season. Three of their five games have been on the road including the last two so a return home has come at a good time. The situation is a good one as well playing on a short week.
The reason it is good is because of the other side and that is the Steelers hitting the road on the short week. Pittsburgh was coming off its bye week the previous week and came away with a last second win over the Eagles this past Sunday in a very physical game. It took its toll as the return of Troy Polamalu was very short lived as he was re-injured and will be out this week as will LaMarr Woodley who left with a hamstring injury against the Eagles. The Steelers are now 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road. Tennessee has the lowest average time of possession per game in the NFL (24:50) and that is due to a lack of a running game. With Chris Johnson rushing for just 210 yards through five games, the Titans have the league's 30th ranked rushing attack. Facing the Steelers may seem like a daunting task however the defense of Pittsburgh is not what it used to be as it is ranked 11th in rushing defense. The Titans have faced four teams in the top 10 in rushing defense and the only one it didn't resulted in their lone win. Titans starting quarterback Jake Locker will miss his second straight game with soreness in his left shoulder meaning Matt Hasselbeck with be making the start. His last two games have obviously resulted in losses but he hasn't been horrible as he has completed 63 percent of his passes to go with three touchdowns. It will be up to the defense to make big strides as the unit has been gashed as Tennessee is ranked 29th in total defense. Getting pressure on Ben Roethlisberger will be the number one priority. The Titans have struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks, ranking 30th in sacks per pass attempt (3.87 percent). Catching the Steelers at the right time is big though as Pittsburgh is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 road games including going 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games on grass. Despite the recent struggles, the Titans are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while the Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (102) Tennessee Titans |
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10-08-12 | Houston Texans v. NY Jets +9 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 149 h 38 m | Show |
With everything going on in the public eye right now, the linesmakers had no choice but to make this number as high as it is. The public will be hearing all week about how the Jets are in turmoil with a major quarterback controversy and how Houston is undefeated and looks to be the team to beat in the AFC. This is exactly the situation we love to see in a high profile game such as this as no team is as bad as it was last week and no teams is as good as it was last week.
The Jets are coming off a dreadful loss against San Francisco as they were shutout 34-0 while getting outgained 379-145. It was by far the worst offensive performance of the season and it was the first time they have been shutout since October, 2010. They followed that game up with a win and they are in a better situation here with this being the second of back-to-back home games. Despite everything that is going on, the Jets are 2-2 and sitting in a tie atop the AFC East so things could be worse. You have to give credit to Houston for being one of just three remaining undefeated teams in the NFL but it has had a pretty easy road to get there. The Texans have played the third easiest schedule thus far and the only real test so far was in Denver where they nearly blew a big lead. While many will not consider this a test , it will be a lot tougher than it looks right now. Houston has a three-game homestand coming up with Green Bay and Baltimore on deck so there could be a slight lookahead going forward. With New York being a media Mecca, you won't be able to avoid some of the sport talk surrounding the Jets and the things they need to do to turn things around. They were in the wrong place at the wrong time this past Sunday as they were coming off a road win in overtime against the Dolphins while the 49ers were coming off a road loss at Minnesota. Now there is a quarterback controversy as Mark Sanchez is coming off a horrible game but we have seen it before and he responds more often than not with a big performance. We play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against team averaging 27 ppg or more after a loss by 14 or more points. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1983. on top of that, the Jets are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games coming off a home loss and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after putting up 250 or fewer yards last game while Houston is just 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games against defenses allowing 350 or more ypg. 10* (436) New York Jets |
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10-07-12 | San Diego Chargers v. New Orleans Saints -3.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 125 h 46 m | Show | |
It has certainly been a tough start for New Orleans as it is 0-4 but a couple breaks its way and it could be sitting at 3-1 right now. Losing is losing however and it will be difficult for the Saints to recover especially now that they are four games behind the Falcons in the NFC South. The most shocking aspect is the fact they New Orleans is 0-2 at home and has been outgained by a total of 323 yards in those games. With the bye week on deck, this is a must win game for the Saints.
The Chargers have started strong out of the gates as they are 3-1 but they have definitely caught come breaks along the way. Last week especially as they were able to take advantage of six Kansas City turnover, the first three of which allowed them to open up a 17-0 lead. San Diego is 24th in total offense and 12th in total defense which is nothing special and it has been outgained in three of its four games thus far. A second straight road game is tough enough but a home game with Denver awaits. The offseason issues with the Saints have been a big distraction but that should be no excuse. They have killed themselves with penalties at the wrong time and that has hurt the defense more than anything. The offense has kept the games close and quarterback Drew Brees has a great game last week as he went 35-54 for 446 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. The offensive effort was great with the exception of two stalled drives in the red zone, where the Saints settled for field goals. New Orleans is dead last in the NFL in total defense but they have faced two teams ranked third and fourth in total offense while also facing Carolina and Green Bay, both of which have potentially explosive offenses. Here they catch a break. The Chargers have been known to have a strong offense the past few years but that has been far from the case this year. On the other side, San Diego is 24th in passing defense and the Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against teams allowing 235 or more passing ypg. The Saints are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games against non-conference opponents that are coming off a straight up underdog victory and the Chargers are part of a contrarian situation where we play against underdogs or pickems after a win by 10 or more points going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 52-22 ATS (70.3 percent) over the last five seasons. The Saints finally come away with their first win of the season. 9* (434) New Orleans Saints |
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10-07-12 | Tennessee Titans +6 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 7-30 | Loss | -109 | 121 h 50 m | Show |
The Vikings have gotten off to a terrific start this season by going 3-1 and if not for a late defensive meltdown against the Colts, they could reasonably be 4-0 right now. Minnesota has been far from dominant however and last week against Detroit, it was actually outgained by 114 total yards but used two special team touchdowns to cement the upset. Now the Vikings go from 3.5-point road underdogs to a 6-point home favorite and that is a huge swing for a pretty average team.
Tennessee was thumped again as it got hammered in Houston to fall to 1-3 on the season. The Titans were expected to make some noise this season after a solid season last year but the early schedule has been very tough to overcome. They have played the toughest schedule in the NFL as the three losses have come against teams that are a combined 9-3 and one of those came against the 2-2 Patriots which could feasibly be 4-0 right now. Tennessee now finds itself in a good situation with plenty of value on its side. The Titans may be without quarterback Jake Locker after he separated his non-throwing shoulder against the Texans. If he cannot go, Matt Hasselbeck will get the start and wasn't horrible against Houston as he was 17-25 for 193 but two interceptions killed him as both were returned for touchdowns. This will not be a big switch. The better news is that running back Chris Johnson finally had a good game as he rushed for 141 yards on 25 carries (5.6 ypc) and he needs to build off that momentum. Minnesota is again playing strong defense but the relatively easy schedule has helped. The Vikings have faced three offenses ranked in the bottom half of the league and while Tennessee falls into that category as well, Minnesota is in a big letdown spot here. The Vikings pulled off a huge upset against San Francisco and then pulled off a divisional road upset against the Lions so getting up for the 1-3 Titans could prove to be too much to ask for. An outright loss is far from out of the question. Tennessee is second to last in the AFC in turnover margin which has hurt its cause immensely. The titans fall into a great league-wide situation based on that though as we play on road underdogs or pickems with a turnover margin of -1 tpg or worse after two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Vikings meanwhile are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (419) Tennessee Titans |
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10-07-12 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -123 | 118 h 45 m | Show |
The Steelers find themselves in a good situation coming off their bye week. They are off to a 1-2 start and are game and a half behind the Bengals and Ravens in the AFC North so that makes this a very important early season game. Pittsburgh lost its opening game in Denver and then its last game in Oakland despite outgaining the Raiders by 112 total yards so it is pretty clear that the Steelers have not traveled well out west. The off week while remaining at home is the perfect spot to recharge the batteries.
The Eagles dodged a bullet last week as they won at home against the Giants thanks to a missed field goal as the game ended. Philadelphia improved to 3-1 and it is a record that is either spot on or slightly skewed. The Eagles have outgained every one of their opponents so far sp a winning record seems legitimate. However, the turnover debacle has made games closer than they should be as the three wins have come by a total of four points. After no turnovers last week, expect a reversal of that here. The Steelers are averaging just 65 rushing ypg which is 31st in the league, and ranks above only the Raiders anemic 60.8 ypg average. The good news however is that running back Rashard Mendenhall is ready to return this week which is a big boost for the offense that is in much need of it. Pittsburgh is not going to switch its schemes though as it has been able to throw the ball with a good deal of success as they are ranked sixth in passing offense but with a more consistent running game they can get even better. On the other side, the Pittsburgh defense has not been very good. The Steelers only have five sacks and two forced turnovers in three games and part of the reason has been injuries with James Harrison and Troy Polamalu missing time. Polamalu should be back this week which is pretty big and even though Harrison is likely sitting again, the week off provided rest for all. The Steelers still need to find a way to generate pressure and force turnovers and the young players need to start executing better. The Steelers have been one of the better teams in the NFL coming off a bye as they have won each of the last four years, covering three of those. They have been even better coming off a loss as they are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a defeat. Also, they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games coming off a spread loss while going 19-5 ATS in their last 24 home games after outgaining their opponent by 100 or more total yards in two straight games. 10* (414) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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10-07-12 | Baltimore Ravens v. Kansas City Chiefs +5.5 | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 118 h 37 m | Show |
The Chiefs came up pretty small last week at home against the Chargers as they dropped to 1-3 on the season. Kansas City was coming off a big road win at New Orleans but it was unable to keep the momentum going as it turned the ball over six times and as we all know, it is impossible to win in this league with mistakes like that. The Chiefs are 0-2 at home, getting outscored by 33 points combined but what that now does is create value for this week and Kansas City is catching a very good number.
Baltimore won last Thursday at home against Cleveland and it was a very uninspiring win as it let the Browns hang around enough to almost be able to tie the game late. It was the third straight game that wasn't decided until very late and while the offense has been clicking, the defense has been a major disappointment. The Ravens have not allowed a lot of points but they are ranked 23rd in total defense which is a far cry of how good they have been over the past few years. Despite being 1-3 on the year, the Chiefs have outgained every opponent so far and while they have not been able to turn those into wins, they are showing they are able to compete and hold their own. Converting yards into points has been the issue as Kansas City is fourth in the NFL in total offense but just 18th in scoring offense and turnovers is the reason. The Chiefs have 15 giveaways and their -13 turnover differential is easily the worst in the NFL. That will come back around. Kansas City has given up a ton of points and turnovers are to blame as well. The Chiefs have allowed the second most points in the NFL despite being ranked a respectable 13th in total defense. Playing on a short field has killed them and over the last two games, they have allowed just 288 yards and 293 yards against two potent offenses. Kansas City is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games after allowing 35 or more points while head coach Romeo Crennel is 15-3 ATS in his last 18 games after allowing 30 or more points. Kansas City falls into a great league-wide situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg after a loss by 14 or more points. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Chiefs are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games at home following a divisional game where they allowed 35 or more points so they have been a solid bounceback team. 10* (424) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-04-12 | Arizona Cardinals v. St. Louis Rams +2 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 53 h 18 m | Show |
We rode St. Louis to victory last week over Seattle as it was catching points at home and we will do the same this Thursday as it is again a divisional home underdog. The Rams came away with the outright win as they improved to 2-0 at home while sitting 0-2 on the road and they have already matched their win total from all of last season. The Thursday night game means a short turnaround but it is a big edge for the home teams, especially when last week was at home also, as it takes out the travel.
Arizona is one of just three remaining undefeated teams in the NFL and it is definitely the most surprising of the bunch. The Cardinals are 4-0 for the first time since 1974 and this is arguably one of the ugliest 4-0 teams we have seen in recent memory. The schedule has been somewhat of a cakewalk as three of the four games have come at home and three of the wins have come down to the final play in regulation so luck has been on their side as the Cardinals could easily be sitting at 1-3 right now. Making the 4-0 start for Arizona even more of a farce is that it has yet to outgain a single opponent. The defense has played at a high level in keeping points off the scoreboard and despite the fact the Cardinals have the third best scoring defense in the NFL, they are just 17th in the league in total defense so their bend but don |
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09-30-12 | New England Patriots -4 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 52-28 | Win | 100 | 53 h 17 m | Show |
We used the Patriots as one of our top plays last week and they came through with a cover. They lost outright however and that actually sets us up again for another strong situation this week. New England has lost consecutive games in the regular season only three times since 2003 prior to this season. The Patriots bounced back with a win in each of those previous follow up games, winning by a combined score of 92-26. This is the first time New England has had a losing records since 2003 when it opened 0-1.
Buffalo has looked impressive the last two weeks with big wins following the season opening blowout loss against the Jets. Taking nothing away from their response but the Bills last two wins have come against some pretty weak opposition and while they are playing with confidence, this is going to be a huge test. Buffalo has improved in almost all areas and it will continue to give a lot of teams fits but this will not be one of those as the Bills caught the Patriots at the wrong time. The Patriots defense was expected to be a much stronger unit this season but it regressed last week against the Ravens and the Bills offense will certainly provide a big test. However the running game for Buffalo is now a mess with C.J. Spiller out and Fred Jackson still nursing a knee injury although he is likely to play even though he is not at 100 percent. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been great the last two games by throwing no interceptions and that means he comes back to earth this Sunday. Tom Brady has owned the Bills over the years and there is no reason to think he won't have another big game here. His offensive line will have to play well and the Patriots also need to get their running game going which has been non-existent over the last two games. The Bills have allowed 745 yards passing so far this season and have yet to face an offense as strong as the Patriots. The last time he was in Buffalo, Brady threw four picks so you know he will out for redemption. The line opened with the Patriots favored by six points but it quickly came down as sharp money was all over Buffalo and the line has now settled in at four and there should not be much more movement. New England falls into a great situation as we play on favorites with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (205) New England Patriots |
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09-30-12 | Seattle Seahawks v. St. Louis Rams +3 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 53 h 11 m | Show |
The Seahawks came away with a very fortunate win on Monday as everyone is well aware of. Seattle moved to 2-1 with the victory with both wins coming at home in consecutive weeks and now it heads back out on the road in what looks to be a very tough situation. The Seahawks own a solid home field edge but they are very average on the road, going 5-12 under head coach Pete Carroll. High profile wins over Dallas and Green Bay has put Seattle in the false favorite role this week.
St. Louis is 1-2 after falling in Chicago last week to drop to 0-2 on the road. The Rams lone win came at home against Washington in Week Two and I expect a similar rebound this week coming off that road defeat. This team is a lot better than it was last season when it went 2-14 and that comes down to better coaching and health. Four of their seven home losses last year came by a touchdown or less so as bad as they were last season, the Rams were still competitive at home The defense has been improving each game for the Rams as they allowed a season low 274 yards last week in Chicago. They won't have to produce any magic against the Seahawks as their offense is still a work in progress under rookie quarterback Russell Wilson. Seattle is ranked 26th in scoring offense and 29th in total offense and they it is dead last in the league is pass attempts and yards. They do have a strong running game behind Marshawn Lynch but the Rams runs defense is above average. The big matchup will be the Rams offense against the Seahawks defense with the latter being one of the best units in the NFL. Holding Dallas and Green Bay to 19 combined points is quite impressive, but again, those games were at home. The Rams have to keep Seattle off balance and that starts with Steven Jackson who is coming off a poor game last week. Last week the Packers used some powerful runs to establish balance and keep the Seattle from going all in on the pass rush and it worked. You cannot compare Green bay and St. Louis but Seattle goes for a home underdog to a road favorite which is very rare in the this league and the Rams benefit from it as they fall into a great situation where we play against favorites coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 67-32 ATS (67.7 percent) since 1983 including going 19-3 ATS (86.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This system has not lost over the last three years (7-0 ATS). 10* (218) St. Louis Rams |
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09-30-12 | Carolina Panthers +7.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 53 h 45 m | Show |
People cannot get enough of the Falcons right now as just like that, they are being hailed as Super Bowl contenders. No offense to the three teams they have beat, but the AFC West is far from a power division so the 3-0 record is far from impressive in my eyes. The defense clamped down last week as turnovers again were the difference and as I will explain later, that will be going against them this week. Despite being 3-0, Atlanta is outgaining opponents by less than nine ypg.
Carolina looked great two weeks ago when it defeated the Saints and was the complete opposite team last week when it got thumped Thursday night against the Giants. This has turned into a huge game for the Panthers if they are looking to compete in the NFC South as a win here keeps them on pace but a loss drops them three games back just four games into the season. Turnover were the difference last week for Carolina as well as it lost the battle 5-0 and there is no way it can expect to compete with a negative variance like that. Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is coming off one of his worst games as a pro and as a matter of fact the 40.6 passer rating was his lowest in 19 career starts. He came close once last season with a 44.6 rating and came back the next game with a 127.5 rating so don't expect a repeat of last Thursday. I am not sold on the Falcons defense as a whole. Yes they have allowed the fourth fewest amount of points in the league but they are 13th in total defense as turnovers have been the difference. That has worked the other way also as turnover by the defense has led to short fields for the offense. The Falcons are third in the league in scoring offense but just 19th in total offense. Had they been playing from a longer field, maybe Atlanta would not have had a problem gaining yards but that remains unclear. The offense is overrated at this point as there is no running game to speak of and while the Carolina defense is going to give up its points, it isn't going to be as bad as people think. I expect both teams being able to move the ball here which will likely mean a high-scoring game. Carolina has the ability to keep up as long as it can avoid turnovers and it falls into a situation saying it will as we play against home teams after a game where they forced four or more turnovers and have forced an average of 2.5 or more tpg, going up against teams that have forced an average of 1.25 or less tpg. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (209) Carolina Panthers |
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09-27-12 | Cleveland Browns v. Baltimore Ravens -11.5 | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
Usually the home teams have a big advantage on Thursday nights because of the short week and the travel involved for the team hitting the road. That was the case in Week Two when the Packers hosted the Bears but last week it was not the case for Carolina. The Panthers were likely in a letdown spot coming off their upset win over the Saints the previous week and they were dominated by the Giants. I feel we get back to reality with the home team this week and despite laying a lot of points, the Ravens will cruise.
Baltimore is coming off a last second victory over New England last Sunday so many will claim that they too are in a letdown spot but that should not be the case. At 2-1, a loss here takes that win away and drops the Ravens back to .500 and that need to keep the winning going and create some space ahead of the Steelers. This is a division game on top of it and even though the Browns have not given much resistance, Baltimore will be plenty fired up. The Ravens have won 12 straight games at home as well as 20 of 21. The Browns have put up some good fights this year and the fact that they have not lost by more than what this spread is this week is going to get some people backing Cleveland. Truth be told, this is a horrible spot. The Browns are 0-3 and desperate for a win but this is not the situation for it to happen as they have lost eight straight games on the road as well as 11 straight divisional games dating back to last season. The short week in trying to prepare for an offense they have not seen before is not a good sign either. Baltimore has turned its offense into a very powerful unit that is starting to speed things up. The Ravens are ranked fourth in the NFL in total offense and second in scoring offense while Cleveland's defense is horrible as it is ranked 25th in total defense and it is still missing their best player in Joe Haden who still has two games left with his suspension. There is no reason to believe that Baltimore cannot score at will here as motivation late would be the only cause for concern. The Browns are even worse offensively as they have no playmakers and quarterback Brandon Weeden still does not have a grasp of this league. While Baltimore may have lost a step defensively, it is not going to hurt them here. Cleveland also falls into a negative situation as we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .000 and .333 playing on Thursday night while playing on a short week. This situation is 14-3 ATS (82.3 percent) since 1992 with the average point differential being +17.9 ppg. 10* (102) Baltimore Ravens |
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09-24-12 | Green Bay Packers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 12-14 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Green Bay came into the season as the favorites in the NFC to win the conference as well as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. The Packers are still at the top of the list despite looking pretty average through their first two games. They followed up a loss at home against the 49ers with a solid win last week against Chicago as the defense propelled them to the win. They allowed just 168 total yards and now it is up to the offense to get things back in order.
We won with Seattle last week as it easily took care of Dallas as three-point underdogs. Surprisingly the number is the same this week and with no disrespect to the Cowboys, there is no way the Packers should be favored by the same amount. It shows that the result from last week is being taken into too much consideration. Seattle won by 20 points but outgained Dallas by only 13 total yards. The Seahawks won the turnover battle 2-0 and used a blocked punt for a touchdown to add to their score. As mentioned, the Green Bay offense has not been spot on. Last season, the Packers offense broke franchise records for points and passing yards and led to quarterback Aaron Rodgers producing the highest passer rating (122.5) of all time. After ranking fifth in the NFL last season with an average length of completion of 7.76 yards, Rodgers ranks 31st this year at just 4.94 yards. Teams have been playing their safeties back in a cover-2 type scheme and Seattle could break that trend meaning the offense should have a big night. Seattle's defense has been strong thus far as it is third in the NFL in scoring defense and sixth in total yards. The rushing defense was ranked third coming into Week Two but it also had the third fewest carries against them so that skews it somewhat. Either way, this defense is no pushover but this will be the biggest test so far and while an argument can be made that the Cowboys potent offense was shutdown, Dallas' offense is far from potent after putting up just 297 yards yesterday against Tampa Bay. The Seahawks have a potential starting quarterback for the future in Russell Wilson but as with any rookie, he is having some adjustment issues from college to the NFL. I expect the Packers to be able to put a ton of pressure on him and they now have a nice secondary rotation with seven guys and the ability to confuse quarterbacks. The Packers need to show good gap integrity to stop Seattle's running game which has been solid thus far. The great teams win on the road and the Packers will do that tonight. 10* (429) Green Bay Packers |
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09-23-12 | New England Patriots +3 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 46 m | Show |
The Patriots broke a lot of hearts last week as their outright loss knocked out a ton of people in suicide pools everywhere. I'm sure people will avoid playing them in any situation now but this is exactly the time to jump on them. New England was not prepared for Arizona and that was said by many players after the game as they had a terrible practice week. Well, you can guarantee the week of practice was more productive this week and New England is in numerous positive spots pointed out later.
The Ravens looked great opening week and then laid an egg last week against the Eagles. The final score only shows a one-point loss but Baltimore was outgained by 161 total yards and the only reason it was as close as it appeared was because of Eagles turnovers which have plagued them going back to last season. Many will go back to the Ravens in a bounceback situation as they head home in another primetime game but this team does have some issues that will be hard to overcome. The main issues revolve around the defense that is far from the same juggernaut that it used to be. They are older and the injury list keeps getting bigger. The Ravens can't seem to stop anyone as they are allowing 404 ypg which is 27th in the league and they will be facing an offense that is coming off a horrendous game and will want redemption. New England did put up 387 yards against the Cardinals but managed only 18 points as they went just 5-15 on third down. Baltimore is trying to figure out how to overcome the loss of linebacker Terrell Suggs, who is out indefinitely with an Achilles injury. Giving Brady time under center is just suicide for a defense and even though he will be without Aaron Hernandez, they will be able to overcome that. On the other side, the Patriots defense has started strong and while they have not faced the top offenses, the young unit is starting to grow up and unlike the Ravens, the defense is healthy. The Patriots have been moneymakers when coming off a loss as under head coach Bill Belichick, they are 14-5 ATS in their 19 games coming off a home loss and they are 13-4 ATS in their 17 road games coming off a loss as a favorite. With Tom Brady under center, New England is a perfect 5-0 straight up and ATS coming off a loss and now playing the role of an underdog, most recently, it was last year when they lost at home against the Giants and then pummeled the Jets by 21 points as a field-goal underdog. 10* (427) New England Patriots |
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09-23-12 | Houston Texans v. Denver Broncos +2 | 31-25 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Denver opened the season with a very strong win over Pittsburgh as Peyton Manning was exceptional in his first game since 2010. He was the talk of the town but as soon as things go bad, the media takes from hero to goat in no time. He tossed three first quarter interceptions against Atlanta on Monday night and the Falcons were able to take advantage in building a big lead. Manning did not give up as he rallied the Broncos but simply ran out of time. That just shows how good he still is despite early adversity.
The Texans came into the season as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl and their current odds are anywhere between 5/1 and 6/1 in most places. They have looked dominant in their first two wins this season as they destroyed Miami at home and followed that up with a demolition of Jacksonville on the road. The defense has allowed only 17 points total and is ranked first in the NFL in both points allowed and total defense. That is impressive to say the least. However, one look at the schedule will show that if the Texans were first defensively, something would definitely be wrong. They have played two of the projected worst offensive teams in the NFL so this will be the biggest test of the season. Manning has looked very good for seven of his eight quarters and even though he is still trying to get used to his new players, he has done well. Coupled with a strong running game, the Broncos have the balance to succeed. Denver's defense cannot be overshadowed as they have played two very strong offensive teams and the Broncos are ranked eighth in total defense. This was an underrated unit coming into the season but they will emerge as one of the leagues best when we get further into the season. Stopping the Texans offense will be a challenge but that will mainly be the running game. With the exception of Andre Johnson out wide, Houston does not have a very strong receiving corps. The question is does Houston deserve to be favored on the road here? We are seeing some lines at -2 so basically the linesmakers are saying that Denver is only 4.5 points worst than Jacksonville and that is ludicrous. Houston has not proven anything that is should be favored on the road over a top team. The Texans were 1-3 on the road last season against playoff teams and the early results this year has made them a false favorite. We are getting a great value play here. 8* (424) Denver Broncos |
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09-23-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. San Diego Chargers -3 | 27-3 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
The Chargers are off to an unusually quick start, going 2-0 with a chance to take early control of the AFC West with a win here. San Diego snuck by the Raiders in its opener despite getting outgained but there was no question about last week as the Chargers rolled to a 28-point win over Tennessee while outgaining the Titans by 204 total yards. The public has been against San Diego early in the season the past few years but it looks like it has turned a corner and is now getting value at home.
The Falcons also come into this game with a 2-0 record as they were able to dominate the Chiefs and Broncos to stay undefeated. But have they really dominated? Atlanta is +7 in turnover margin and it is hard to lose when that variance is so much in their favor. The Falcons have played from a short field and despite being +22 in scoring differential, they have been outgained in both of their games and that is significant. As long as San Diego does not hand the ball over. The Falcons could be in some major trouble. This situation is not a good one for the Falcons on top of it. They are coming off that Monday night game at home and now have to head out to the west coast so the time zone difference coupled with the short week puts them at a big disadvantage. Normally you hear about how tough it is for west coast teams to play an early game on the east coast but it is just as bad getting used to the time difference going the other way. You will see fatigue set it going into the latter part of the game. San Diego meanwhile has had the luxury of staying home for two straight games as well as staying in its own state since the final game of the preseason as both roadtrip have gone to San Francisco and Oakland. This is a massive edge as it adds to preparation since there is so much time that the team is not spending traveling. This could have a lot to do with the start to the season as the Chargers have never been 2-0 in coach Norv Turner's first five seasons. The Chargers have covered six straight games on grass and playing a field turf team has its advantage again this week. Also, San Diego is 10-2 ATS in 12 home games under Turner following a double-digit win while going 8-1 ATS in its nine games following consecutive wins against the spread. Meanwhile Atlanta head coach Mike Smith has not done well in this situation as the Falcons are 0-7 ATS as underdogs coming off consecutive victories. 8* (422) San Diego Chargers |
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09-23-12 | Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Washington Redskins | 38-31 | Win | 104 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
The Redskins opened the season with a shocking win at New Orleans and they were probably caught in a letdown against the Rams last week as they lost by three points. Washington now heads home for its home opener and fans have to be feeling pretty excited for what they have seen so far even though the record sits at .500. We have seen it before though as last season, the Redskins actually started the season 2-0 but was unable to make it three straight and went on a 1-7 run.
The Bengals made the playoffs last season but they hardly look like a playoff team this year. They were hammered by the Ravens in their opener and they had to hold off the Browns last week as they were outgained by Cleveland by 64 total yards. The issue has been the defense so far as after finishing ninth in scoring defense and seventh in total defense last season, Cincinnati is 29th and 30th respectively through two games this year. It is something that should not be a concern yet as it is very early. Cincinnati's offense has not been a whole lot better but at least it has been able to move the ball. Quarterback Andy Dalton had a great rookie season and while he has been getting some of the blame, he has a 93.9 quarterback rating through two games. He need to get better at avoiding sacks as he has been dumped 10 times this year and the goal this week will be to win the time of possession battle so we will see a healthy does of BenJarvus Green-Ellis in order to keep the defense off the field, The Redskins defense has been nearly as bad as they are ranked 27th in scoring defense and 28th in total defense and just when things could not have gone worse, they did. They lost two huge defenders last week against the Rams as Brian Orakpo tore the pectoral muscle near his left shoulder, while Adam Carriker tore the quad tendon in his right knee. Both were put on injured reserve this week and an already fragile unit will have its hands full this week. The Bengals have two great situations in their favor. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive game where they committed one or fewer turnovers. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This situation is 46-14 ATS (76.7 percent) since 1983. 8* (409) Cincinnati Bengals |
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09-23-12 | St Louis Rams v. Chicago Bears -7 | Top | 6-23 | Win | 100 | 63 h 11 m | Show |
The Bears were manhandled last Thursday night against the Packers as quarterback Jay Cutler was again at the forefront as he played miserably and put the blame on others. Well, there has been enough time for that to pass and now the Bears will be out to bounceback and with a game at Dallas next week, this has turned into a pretty big game. I expect the defense to step up and put up a big game after a pretty good effort against a tough Packers offense. I expect the offense to light things up as well.
The Rams have looked pretty good the first two weeks of the season as they narrowly lost at Detroit in the season opener and then won last week against the Redskins in their home opener. Those two close games shows that new head coach Jeff Fisher is making a difference however I don't think the Rams have made the jump just yet. They benefitted from numerous turnovers against the Lions and caught Washington in a letdown spot. Now they find themselves in their own letdown spot. The Rams offense was on point last week against Washington but the Redskins lost some key defenders and I do not expect a repeat of that, especially after putting up just 250 yards against the Lions in their opener. St. Louis is extremely thin on the offensive line and the playmakers will be caught in big disadvantages this weekend. The Bears actually played a better game defensively against the Packers than they did against the Colts but in that first game, a lot yards came in garbage time. Obviously the talk this past week has been about Cutler and the offensive line but it is completely blown out of proportion which makes it comical as the media loves this stuff. In reality it has passed. The offensive line will be fine this week as the Rams have no existence of a pass rush as they have only two sacks this year. Overall ,the defense has been very average as they are ranked 22nd in points allowed and 24th in yards allowed. Look for the Bears to return to form even without Matt Forte. The Bears low output on offense last week benefits them this week as they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game and it is also part of a league-wide situation. Play against road underdogs or pickems after scoring 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This has blowout written all over it. 10* (402) Chicago Bears |
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09-23-12 | Detroit Lions v. Tennessee Titans +4 | Top | 41-44 | Win | 100 | 63 h 54 m | Show |
Tennessee has looked dreadful the first two weeks of the season as it was blasted at home against New England and then got blasted again last week at San Diego so public perception is that it will get blasted again. That won't be the case. Teams that are coming off consecutive poor performances tend to bounce back pretty well in this league, especially those that have talent and the Titans possess that. They have not come out very good but there is plenty of time to recover.
The Lions quick start to last season is still causing them to be overrated and thus, overvalued. Detroit could easily be sitting at 0-2 right now as it caught a break against the Rams and was pretty much outmuscled against the 49ers last week. They are a team that has a potentially potent offense and gets them a lot of publicity which amateur bettors love to eat up. Detroit put a lot into the game at San Francisco last week and that will provide a letdown not to mention the physical aspect that it has to recover from. Plain and simple, the Lions should not be favored here. They are favored because Tennessee has lost its last two games by a combined 49 points and while that may seem like a pretty obvious reason, it is based on perception of the public of that. There is no way the linesmakers could make the Titans the favorites here because the one-sided action would be astronomical. It is still pretty heavy on the Lions and yet the line has not moved which is certainly telling us something. Titans Jake Locker has struggled but he could bounce back this week as he faced a thin Detroit secondary and even better news came on offense. Wednesday marked the first practice in about a year with both Kenny Britt and Nate Washington healthy enough that neither was on the injury report. That is huge. This is one of those instances where the passing game can set up the rushing game and allow Chris Johnson so finally bust out. The offensive line has to play its part as well. As mentioned, teams coming off big losses in consecutive games have actually done well as they win against the number over 67 percent of the time over the last decade. The Titans also fall into a situation where we play against favorites after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 83-42 ATS (66.4 percent) since 1983. Look for the Titans to notch that first win of the year. 10* (408) Tennessee Titans |
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09-16-12 | Dallas Cowboys v. Seattle Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 54 h 29 m | Show |
The Cowboys were very impressive in their opening game as they were able to get some payback against the Giants after last year's sweep and keeping them out of the playoffs. Dallas has had extra time off to rest for Seattle but it should not be a big advantage as heading out onto the road for a second straight week negates that. This was the first time in three years that the Cowboys won their season opener so things may be looking up but I'm not sold just yet. Dallas hasn't won road games in consecutive weeks since 2009.
This is a very intriguing line as Seattle went from a road favorite to a home underdog in the span of just one week and while the value was against the Seahawks last week, it is on them this week. Seattle had a chance to win last week as it had numerous opportunities to punch in a late touchdown but failed to get the job done. The Seahawks are catching a great number and they are 11-5 ATS as home underdogs over the last three years including going 5-1 ATS last season. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson was pretty average in his first ever start but he ranked ahead of three of the other rookies so in hindsight, it was far from horrible. He now goes home for the first time and he should have a better game here despite facing a stronger defense. Dallas did a phenomenal job of shutting down the Giants offense as it held Eli Manning to 213 yards passing but there were a ton of drops that were not his fault. The Giants could not run the ball but they had the worst rushing offense last year as well. Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo had a great game in New York, posting a rating of 129.5. He gets a lot of heat for not being clutch but he is clearly one of the best signal callers in the game. Last week though cannot be taken too serious as he was facing a Giants defense that was decimated in the secondary and was forced to go with a fifth-string cornerback. Seattle will provide more resistance as it has a great secondary. It allowed a 70.9 passer rating last week and was sixth in that category last season. The Cowboys have proven over the last few years that they have not fared well when they are supposed to win as they are 4-15 ATS in their 19 games as favorites. Under head coach Jason Garrett, they are 0-6 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3. Also, coming off a good effort has resulted in the opposite in the next game as Dallas is 13-28 ATS in its last 41 road games after gaining 400 or more yards in their previous game. Seattle is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games coming off a loss. 10* (216) Seattle Seahawks |
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09-16-12 | Baltimore Ravens v. Philadelphia Eagles -1 | Top | 23-24 | Push | 0 | 51 h 30 m | Show |
Based on what we saw last week, the Ravens look to be a power in the AFC while the Eagles are up to their old tricks , committing too many mistakes and just getting by. Because of this, we are getting excellent value with Philadelphia is its home opener. It took a touchdown with just over a minute remaining for the Eagles to defeat the Browns on the road but any road win is a good one. Obviously the five turnovers hurt but Philadelphia outgained the Browns by 246 yards and that is domination.
The Ravens started strong against Cincinnati but they let the Bengals back into the game before scoring the final 24 points to run away with the victory. They have now won 11 straight games at home and 19 of their last 20, including postseason. Playing on the road is a different story as they were just 4-4 on the highway last year and they are right at .500 over the last three seasons. A win in the spotlight puts Baltimore in the public eye but the situation now is not a good one. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco was close to flawless as he posted a 128.4 quarterback rating and he has been the talk throughout the media. I have always been a fan and this could finally be his breakout year but he comes in with a career quarterback rating of 82.3 on the road and he will be facing a stiff test. The Eagles defense was dominant against Cleveland and even though it was against the lowly Browns, they allowed just 210 total yards, the fewest allowed by any team in Week One. On the other side, Michael Vick was horrible, tossing four interceptions and putting up a dismal rating of 41. To his credit, he played sparingly in the preseason but still threw for 317 yards and two touchdowns. Yes he is still overrated but he is good enough to make the Eagles a winner. The Ravens defense was good but not great against Cincinnati as they allowed 322 total yards 129 yards rushing on 28 carries (4.6 ypc). That was tied for sixth highest and coming off a physical game, they could be worse here. We are buying low here as people are already off the Philadelphia bandwagon but remember, last season, they had the largest yardage margin in the league. Turnovers need to come down obviously. The Ravens are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win by more than two touchdowns and the Eagles fall into a great situation where we play on favorites in non-conference games coming off a road win. This situation is 82-44 ATS (65.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (208) Philadelphia Eagles |
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09-13-12 | Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers -6 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 45 h 23 m | Show |
The Packers have two straight games that mean something as they lost in the Divisional Round of the playoffs to the Giants and followed that up with a loss in their season opener against San Francisco. Both of those games came at home which is the most surprising after winning 13 consecutive games at Lambeau Field. Green Bay was arguably still the best team in the NFL last season and should be better this year even if the record will not necessary show that.
Chicago opened the season with a relatively easy win over Indianapolis, spoiling the debut of Andrew Luck. The Colts hung tough for a while as they trailed by only three points late in the second quarter until the Bears pulled away. The offense was very impressive for Chicago as it gained 428 total yards but that was against a pretty bad Colts defense and now it hits the road for the first time against a much better defense and one that will be better this week after giving up 377 yards to the 49ers last week. There were some positives as the Packers sacked San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith four times on Sunday and they held ground on third down, allowing the 49ers to convert only two of nine times. Quarterback Alex Smith had an outstanding game as he moved the ball and was very efficient. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler had a strong games as well with the exception of an early pick-six. We all know Cutler can make bonehead moves and in six career starts against Green Bay, he has a 67.5 quarterback rating. Green Bay struggled to run the ball against San Francisco and that ultimately hurt the passing offense. It wasn't until San Francisco's 15th game last season when the defense gave up its first rushing touchdown so the fact that the Packers struggled came as no surprise. They will have better success this week. Chicago allowed only 63 rushing yards against the Colts but Indianapolis ran the ball only 15 times so the 4.2 ypc average the Bears allowed was not good at all. The Packers have not opened the season 0-2 since 2006 which was the first year under head coach Mike McCarthy and that also happened to be the last time Green Bay lost their season opener as well. Green Bay falls into a great situation where we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that outscored opponents by four or more ppg last season, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (102) Green Bay Packers |
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09-10-12 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders -1 | Top | 22-14 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
We have seen this line completely shift as the Chargers opened as the small favorites while the Raiders currently sit as the small favorites heading into tonight. The Chargers remain high on a lot of lists to make a playoff run but this has been the case for years and we have yet to see it. There is no reason to think this is finally the year as San Diego as the only big changes made were replacing both coordinators. The public is still in love with this team and for no real good reason.
The Chargers are hurting on offense as two key players are out with Vincent Brown sitting on IR with a broken ankle sustained during the preseason and running back Ryan Matthews still a couple weeks away from coming back after suffering a broken collarbone, also in the preseason. Also, the offensive line could be a big issue and will be at a disadvantage tonight. Undrafted rookie Mike Harris is at left tackle as he will try to protect Philip Rivers against a very solid defensive line of the Raiders. I think the Raiders have a big edge on defense tonight. The team has a whole new set of cornerbacks, two new starters at linebacker, and, most importantly, a brand new system after years of playing one way. This may not seem like the best situation but all indications are that it is coming through fine but most important, San Diego could be stumped. It has had to rely on film from preseason and new head coach Dennis Allen's defense last year when he was coordinator in Denver for clues about what to expect. Raiders quarterback Carson Palmer's best days are behind him but he is capable of a big season as he is now comfortable with the cast around him. The Raiders exploited San Diego |
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09-10-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens -7 | 13-44 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Plenty of sevens are still available on the Ravens which get a good draw for their 2012 opener. Baltimore lost in the AFC Championship to the Patriots by a field goal and it was a deflection away from making it to the Super Bowl. The goal this season is making it to New Orleans and the Ravens are again one of five teams that have a legitimate shot in doing so. The Ravens love the bright stage and at home they are tough as they have won 10 straight games at home and 18 of their last 19, including postseason.
Of all the playoff teams from a season ago, I think the Bengals were the weakest of the bunch they started the season strong by going 6-2 over their first eight games but closed 3-6 including a loss against the Texans in the Wild Card round. Those final three wins were against teams that were not close to making the playoffs and of their nine wins last year, none were against playoff teams. Cincinnati went 9-0 against non-playoff teams and 0-8 against playoff teams showing it cannot get it done when needed. The Ravens offense will have a slightly different look this season as offensive coordinator Cam Cameron plans to let quarterback Joe Flacco take more leadership on the field and let him use more no-huddle. Baltimore has some of the fastest receivers in the NFL and Flacco has a chance to really break out while Ray Rice is still one of the best running backs in the NFL. Baltimore has won eight straight division games, which is the longest current streak in NFL I'm not so sure how this Bengals offense is going to perform this season. Quarterback Andy Dalton had a decent rookie season with a quarterback rating of 80.4 but he regressed during the second half of the season. In two games against the Ravens, he had a rating of 63.2. The offensive line is in trouble as the Bengals lost guard Travelle Wharton and center Kyle Cook for the season. A.J. Green is a great receiver but there is no one behind him and the jury is still out on running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Both defenses are strong and while the loss of Terrell Suggs is a bog one for Baltimore, it will be just fine as it has excellent coverage cornerbacks, which will allow the Ravens to try some blitzes. They should have no problem against an offense that scored more than 23 points only six times all of last season including none in their final seven games. The Ravens have covered four straight season openers and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games as favorites of seven points or less. 9* (480) Baltimore Ravens |
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09-09-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Denver Broncos -1 | 19-31 | Win | 100 | 58 h 24 m | Show | |
The last time we saw the Steelers, they went to Denver in the playoffs and lost in overtime as more than a touchdown favorites. They now come in as underdogs and for pretty good reason. This team is not getting any younger and while the defense remains the strength, they are banged up and will likely be without two key starters in James Harrison and Ryan Clark. This is a huge revenge game for Pittsburgh but road revenge is tough in this league and Denver will have a huge home edge on Sunday night.
The big story however is the return of one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. This is the first game for Peyton Manning since 2010 but he will be just fine as he is one of the biggest competitors in the NFL so if he isn't 100 percent healthy, it shouldn't even matter. He looked very solid in the third preseason game which came against the 49ers as he was able to zip the ball around. This was especially true on the left side as that was one of the big concerns that he was having trouble going that way. While the big story is about Manning, the Steelers have a lot more to be concerned about than him. The Broncos averaged an NFL-best 164.5 rushing ypg during their 8-8 season of 2011. Willis McGahee ran for 1,199 yards, while Lance Ball, rookie Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno provide excellent depth. Now that Denver has a quarterback that can actually get the ball downfield, this could be a very dangerous offense and one that is no longer deemed as one-dimensional. The Broncos defense is a very underrated unit and it will be able to dominate the line of scrimmage against the very weak Pittsburgh offensive line. Ben Roethlisberger is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL following another 4,000-yard passing season last year and he has some solid targets to throw to. The problem lies in the rushing game as Rashard Mendenhall is still not ready to carry the entire load after tearing his ACL leaving third-year back Jonathan Dwyer as the possible number one back. Motivation can play a big part in this league and while this is a revenge game for the Steelers, getting it on the road is tough. breaking it down even further is the fact the Steelers should be out to get after Tim Tebow who was the main culprit in that playoff loss. The Steelers are not as good of a road team as a home team and while we do have Manning on our side now, this is not a play on Manning but a play on the entire Broncos team that should now be above average in facets of the game. 9* (478) Denver Broncos |
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09-09-12 | San Francisco 49ers v. Green Bay Packers -4.5 | 30-22 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 19 m | Show | |
The last time we saw the Packers, they were manhandled at home by the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants in the NFC Divisional Playoffs. Green Bay was the best team in football last season as it was coming off a 15-1 season with the only loss in Kansas City by five points. The scary thing is that the Packers could be even better this season as the offense remains in tact while the defense will be much improved. That doesn't necessarily mean a better record, but definitely a better team.
The 49ers were an overtime away of advancing to the Super Bowl last season as their season was also ended by the Giants in the NFC Championship. San Francisco went 14-4 last year and while it was an incredible season as expectations were not that high, I feel they go in the other direction this season. The schedule was fairly easy a year ago and it included six games against the pathetic NFC West, where it went 5-1. The slate is tougher this year and that will cause some issues, starting right here. A lot of things went right for the 49ers last season but that doesn't mean they were lucky. Everything on both sides of the ball clicked right away which was a big accomplishment to the coaching staff for getting them ready in the shortened preseason. Now that teams have a whole year of game film to look over, San Francisco is not going to be sneaking up on many people this season and especially one from Green Bay. This is a huge early game for both sides but the edge goes to the home team. Green Bay doesn't have a lot to prove after last season's success but the goal is to get better on the defensive side of the ball. The Packers were last in the NFL in yppl allowed which says a lot for the offense in being able to bail out the defense the entire year. It's hard to get worse than the 4.4 percent sack rate that ranked Green Bay dead last in that category, but it should be noted that the Packers will face teams that gave up a combined 659 sacks last season. The 49ers yielded 44 sacks last year, seventh worst in the NFL. The San Francisco defense was one of the best in the NFL last season but the lack of offenses faced did have a lot to do with that. When the 49ers faced some elite quarterbacks and offense, they got gashed pretty good allowing yardage totals of 472, 513, 395, 389, 472 and 352. Those were against the Cowboys, Eagles, Steelers, Saints and Giants twice. I expect them to struggles big time again here. The Packers were 6-1 ATS last regular season as home favorites. 9* (472) Green Bay Packers |
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09-09-12 | Seattle Seahawks v. Arizona Cardinals +3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
Seattle finished 9-7 last year and was not a road favorite at all and now in the first game of this season, it is a road chalk? Russell Wilson won the job at starting quarterback after an incredible preseason but now the games mean something. He did his damage mostly against backups and in the third game he played against the Chiefs had come in 0-5 ATS in their previous week three preseason games showing there is no effort. Wilson could have a great career but this is an overaggressive line.
Arizona had an average season last year at 8-8 but it was how the Cardinals finished that tells us something. They went 7-2 down the stretch after a dreadful 1-6 start and shows how the players refused to give up and how the coaching staff was able to bring them together. Heading into this game as home underdogs is certainly to light some fires as well as the Cardinals have not been home underdogs to Seattle since 2007 which was the first season under head coach Ken Whisenhunt. Defensively, Arizona was fairly average last year but there was a reason for that. The Cardinals were young on that side of the ball and because of the lockout, it took them longer than normal to come together. The response was outstanding though as Arizona allowed 68 ypg fewer in the second half of the season than it did in the first half of the season. That defense has the potential to be even better now that Sam Acho and Patrick Peterson have a year in the system. Seattle gets a lot of the hype with its defense but it actually allowed the same yppl that Arizona allowed last season so it is not as stout as it suggests. The Cardinals named John Skelton the starting quarterback and while he was average in eight starts a year ago, he has the change to get better with an elite group of receivers around him including Larry Fitzgerald and rookie Michael Floyd. Arizona is hoping to see plenty of carries from Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, who both return following knee surgeries. This line is up to three points in a lot of places and getting anything less than two and a half is pretty unlikely come gameday. Wilson was the talk of the preseason but until he can prove he can win against first team defenses for a whole game, I will be really skeptical of him being behind the role of road favorite. Arizona has covered five of the last six home meetings in this series while winning all five of those outright which is all we will need to get done here. 10* (476) Arizona Cardinals |
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09-09-12 | New England Patriots v. Tennessee Titans +6 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 17 m | Show |
The Patriots enter the season coming off a 15-4 and a trip to the Super Bowl, which they obviously did not win. That is going to provide some motivation for New England and while it is one of the favorite again in the AFC to return to the Super Bowl, the jury is still out on this team. The defense was atrocious last season and they did not do much to get better. The offense will again be solid but quarterback Tom Brady has to worry about the offensive line, especially early in the season.
After going 6-10 in 2010, Tennessee went 9-7 last year including wins in four of its last six games and narrowly missed the postseason. Getting to the playoffs in the stacked AFC will be tough once again but the Titans are a team on the rise and this line is based on public perception and not reality. Tennessee has been a home underdog only six times in the last four years and has covered four of those games with three of those resulting in outright wins. As mentioned, motivation will play a big role for New England this season coming off that Super Bowl loss. You would tend to think that Super Bowl losers would come out strong to try and avenge those defeats but it has been the total opposite over the last few years as losers of the title game are 3-15 ATS in their season opener the last 18 years. This included the Steelers getting thumped by the Ravens last season, the Colts getting thumped at Houston in 2010 and the Steelers not covering in 2009. Tennessee is treating this game with high importance. Lavelle Hawkins called it a playoff game, and Nate Washington upped the ante by saying it is being treated as a championship. In fact, Tennessee coaches and players have prepared for New England since the spring through voluntary organized team activity practices, a mandatory minicamp and training camp. This is the second year with new systems in place so more time has been used for gameplanning and not learning. Tennessee falls into a great situation as we play on underdogs or pickems in the first two weeks of the year, after closing out last season strong with two or more straight wins. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons including going 13-2 ATS the last five years with the average point differential actually favoring the underdog by +2.3 ppg. There still are some holdovers from the 59-0 debacle in New England three years ago and that can only add more motivation to the mix. 10* (462) Tennessee Titans |
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09-05-12 | Dallas Cowboys v. NY Giants -3.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
The hype for this game is huge in New York with all of the festivities surrounding last year
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01-22-12 | NY Giants +3 v. San Francisco 49ers | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 104 h 51 m | Show | |
Many will argue that the Packers lost last week as opposed to the Giants winning and while that is true to some degree, it is more than that. Green Bay hurt itself with turnovers and dropped passes but the New York defense had a lot to do with that. The Giants allowed 388 total yards, the seventh lowest offensive output from Green Bay this season and that defense is playing the best it has all season. They are as healthy as they have been and much healthier than in the first meeting with San Francisco.
Looking at that first meeting, the Giants lost by a touchdown as their potential game-tying drive was stopped at the 49ers 10-yard line on fourth down with 34 seconds remaining. New York was inside the San Francisco redzone four times and came away with only 13 points as they were forced into field goals of 23 and 25 yards to start the game. Overall, the Giants outgained the 49ers by 90 yards and some will point to garbage yards after the 49ers went up by 14 points but that is far from the case. After the 49ers took the lead early in the fourth quarter, the Giants ran only two plays before Manning was intercepted and San Francisco scored another touchdown just one play later. Turnovers were the difference right there so for the Giants to win this game, they must limit and even cut out the miscues. It is easier said than done as the 49ers lead the league in turnover margin but the Giants have taken very good care of the ball with only two turnovers their last four games including just one in the playoffs. The 49ers impressively defeated New Orleans on a late touchdown with just nine seconds left. They once again did it with turnovers as they forced five which was the difference as San Francisco was outgained by 65 total yards and allowed 472 yards, the most since Week Four against the Eagles. While it may be considered an aberration, the 49ers have struggled against potent offenses and the Giants are in that category as they are playing at a very high level. New York gained 395 yards on offense in that first meeting. The revenge angle has not fared well in the playoffs as the teams that lost the first meeting have gone 1-4 in the playoffs. That one win though came from the Giants as they avenged their earlier loss against the Packers. Despite the 1-2 ATS mark in the playoffs, this is a very good angle as we play on road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 revenging a same season loss against opponent. This situation is 30-11 ATS (73.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (303) New York Giants |
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01-22-12 | Baltimore Ravens +9 v. New England Patriots | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 100 h 27 m | Show |
We got the line we wanted and we will get this one out there early as we are over a key number. Baltimore did not look very good in winning over Houston as it was outgained although it did have chances to cover the number as a missed opportunity at the goalline proved to be the difference. The Ravens played a strong Texans defense and you have to give Houston credit for playing the way it did bit now Baltimore goes up against one of the worst defenses in the league and it will show.
The Patriots looked awesome on Saturday night and that sets us up for a great opportunity to go against them. We were on Denver in that game and it was clearly the wrong side as the Broncos defense had no answers for Tom Brady and the offense. That defense was overrated but now the Patriots will have to contend with the top ranked adjusted defense in the NFL as the efficiency is weighted to rely more on the latter games. Aging or not, the Ravens defense is still a force. Baltimore has allowed more than 336 total yards only once in last seven games and while the Patriots possess a strong offense, it has not been tested in a while. The last time they saw a defense this good was back in Week Eight against the Steelers and New England was shut down, being held to just 213 total yards. The Patriots are averaging 32.8 ppg but that came against teams allowing an average of 23.1 ppg which averages out to a ranking of 22nd in the NFL in scoring defense. Baltimore is ranked third in that category. Say what you want about Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco but he posted a passer rating of 97.1 against the Texans which during the regular season allowed an average passer rating of 69.0 which was second best in the NFL (Baltimore is first by the way at 68.8). The Patriots are no where near that and while they made Tim Tebow look very below average, teams have been able to so that this season the second time they have seen him. The Patriots won't have many answers against Flacco and running back Ray Rice. If you can get the nine points with Baltimore that is great but anything over seven points is just fine as the nine points that are available are mainly for teaser protections. Baltimore has been great in bounce back situations as the Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. They also fall into a great situation where we play against teams with a defense that allows 5.4 or more yppl, after gaining 450 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 99-59 ATS (62.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (301) Baltimore Ravens |
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01-15-12 | NY Giants +9 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 90 h 12 m | Show |
We saw the Giants take out the Falcons rather easily in the first round on Sunday and they are playing their best football of the season. This is especially true on the defensive side of the ball. New York did not allow Atlanta's offense to score as the two points came on a safety due to intentional grounding in the endzone. The Giants held the Falcons to 247 total yards and while I am certainly not banking on that against the Packers, I do expect another solid effort as the confidence of this unit is at the top right now.
Green Bay had the week off following a win against the Lions in its regular season finale and that game saw a lot of the starters sitting out. While the Packers may now be rested, we have to wonder if the extended time off may hinder them here. They have been playing at a top level all year but the numbers are not as impressive as you may think. The Packers have been outgained in seven of their last 10 games and while it resulted in only one outright loss, it is a pretty big concern. Overall, the Packers are getting outgained by 6.5 ypg and for a team that is 15-1, we have to figure out if there is an issue. In this case, it is the defense that remains in question. For anyone that saw their last game against the Lions, the defense is a big liability which has been the case all season long. Green Bay allowed 575 total yards against Detroit and a unit that is doing that is allowing any team to hang around and not only get a backdoor cover, but win the game outright which New York is capable of. Giants quarterback Eli Manning is coming off another superb game where he posted a 129.3 passer rating, his fourth rating of 100 or more in the last seven games, which included a rating of 100.7 against the Packers in the first meeting. The Giants finished eighth in the NFL in total offense with 385.1 ypg and they surpassed that mark last week against the Falcons. Green Bay has allowed fewer than 400 total yards only twice in their last 11 games and both came against teams that did not qualify for the playoffs. The loss of Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's son is a horrible situation but one that should not impact either side. When the Giants are laying well it has had a long carryover as they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games off two consecutive home wins and 19-8 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams allowing 7.0 or more ypa. Under head coach Tom Coughlin, New York is 9-2 ATS in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points. 10* (115) New York Giants |
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01-15-12 | Houston Texans v. Baltimore Ravens -7.5 | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 5 m | Show | |
We won with Houston last week against the Bengals and while it was a dominating performance on the scoreboard, it was not so much on the field as the Texans outgained Cincinnati by only 40 total yards. It was the fourth straight game for Houston where the yardage differentials were fairly even and three of those came at home. The lone exception was its loss at Indianapolis. The Texans got their first even playoff win but now getting their first ever road playoff win may be asking too much.
Baltimore has had a week to rest and get ready for a possible run at the Super Bowl and it has the team makeup to do it. Defensively, many are saying the Ravens are not the same as they used to be and while they are getting older, a team that is ranked third in both overall and scoring defense is pretty solid in my book. Baltimore is 8-0 at home including wins in half of those games coming against playoff teams as well as two others against teams that finished .500 or better. Houston has a defense that statistically is better than that of the Ravens but at this point of the season, I don't think it can compare. The Texans had the best three-game stretch in the NFL on defense as they allowed a total of 494 yards against the Titans, Jaguars and Browns. While it was impressive, the Browns and Jaguars were 29th and 32nd in total offense so it was definitely skewed. The Ravens are 12th in the league in scoring offense and they are nearly 100 percent healthy which is very important this time of year. Taking a look at the quarterback comparison and you will notice that Joe Flacco and T.J. Yates have nearly the identical passer rating but there is a pretty big difference. Experience alone plays a big role as Flacco has been in this spot and has won in this spot while Yates has yet to make a road playoff start. Also, Flacco does his best work at home as his rating is much better there than it is on the road and he has a career passer rating of 90.0 in 32 home starts compared to 82.3 in 32 road starts. This is a revenge game for Houston but that doesn't mean revenge will unfold here. The Ravens dominated that first meeting as they outgained the Texans by 129 total yards and held Matt Schaub in check. Andre Johnson did not play in that game but his presence now and Schaub's absence negate each other. It was one of Ray Rice's six 100-yard games this season as the offense tallied 402 total yards, one of only two times Houston allowed 400 or more yards on defense. 9* (114) Baltimore Ravens |
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01-14-12 | Denver Broncos +14 v. New England Patriots | 10-45 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 8 m | Show | |
The one big fear of playing Denver here is the letdown factor. The Broncos won as huge underdogs last week and now have to travel east less than a week later so the situation is far from ideal but that is negated by the matchup. This is the second meeting between the Broncos and the Patriots and while the score showed an 18-point New England victory but it was actually closer than that. Turnovers for Denver were the difference as it lost that battle 3-0 and that led to 13 New England points.
So while New England won so big in that first meeting, the line opened big but I think it is still too much. The Patriots are one the most overrated top seeds that we have seen in the playoffs in a long time. They still possess one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL but it is hard to back a team with a defense that was as bad as New England was this season. The Patriots had trouble stopping bad teams as they faced a very easy schedule and they defeated only one team that made the playoffs, coincidentally Denver. New England lost to Buffalo because of turnovers but it lost to the Giants and Steelers because it was unable to win the physical battle on the line of scrimmage and Denver has the team that can cause the same issues as long as they can avoid turnovers this time around. It is no secret that the Broncos will try and keep the New England offense off the field by running the ball and they should have success as the Patriots allowed 4.6 ypc and in that first meeting, Denver rushed for 252 yards on 31 carries (8.2 ypc). That rushing total allowed has to be alarming if you are a new England fan. It was part of a horrible end to the season as they gave up 162.3 ypg over the last four games and despite having the edge of this being the second look at Denver, the defense may not even be good enough to make the proper adjustments. Denver did not allow a single sack against the Steelers so keeping Tin Tebow in the pocket backfired as not only did he not go down, he threw for 316 yards. Stopping the Patriots will be a challenge for the Broncos defense but they won't have to do that as slowing down New England could very well be enough as something says the Denver offense will have enough success to keep it close. The Broncos fall into a great situation where we play on road teams that are revenging a loss by 14 points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 28-10 ATS (73.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (111) Denver Broncos |
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01-14-12 | New Orleans Saints -3.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 32-36 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 41 m | Show |
New Orleans has won and covered nine straight games since losing in St. Louis which came right after winning that lopsided home game against the Colts. The fact that the Saints are road favorites here is no surprise at all and I actually think they should be favored by more. Taking them out of the dome is a possible way to slow them down but realistically, this offense is playing like no other and given the venue or the opposing defense, I can't see them being slow down very much.
The 49ers were the surprise of the NFC as not only did they win their division but did so with a 13-3 record. The division was a very weak one for sure so going 5-1 against divisional foes is far from a surprise. San Francisco went 4-2 against teams ranked in the top ten in the NFL but faced no team higher than fifth so this is the biggest test of the season with everything on the line. Normally we would take a strong look at the home underdog side but there is too much going the other way. The 49ers have the fourth ranked defense in the NFL so slowing down the Saints is a definitely possibility. Stopping them is not however. The rushing defense was the strength of the unit, ranking first in the league, the passing defense was not nearly as good, finishing 16th during the regular season. The Saints no doubt have the offense that can take advantage and they don't turn the ball over much which is where the 49ers had a lot of their success on that side of the ball. Basically it will be up to the 49ers offense to be able to stay with the Saints offense and it will not happen. San Francisco scored fewer than 24 points in 10 of its 16 games and sustaining drives is the big issue. The 49ers finished 31st in the NFL in third down offense, converting on just 29.4 percent of their third down attempts. The Saints meanwhile possess the fifth best third down defense in the league and this translates into redzone success where Sa Francisco is 30th in redzone offense. The 49ers led the league in turnover margin but that does not translate to playoff success as the 18 teams that led or were tied in turnover margin won just seven games in the first playoff round. The Saints also fall into a solid situation as we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are coming off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record playing another winning team. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (109) New Orleans Saints |
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01-08-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Denver Broncos +9 | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 93 h 14 m | Show |
I understand that the playoffs are different than the regular season as experience plays a big part in that. In this case Pittsburgh has it while Denver does not. But this point spread is out of control. Very rarely will you see a team favored on the road by this much in the playoffs and in the Wildcard round, a road team has been favored by more than five points only once. That happened to come last year when the Seahawks defeated the Saints last season as 9.5-point home underdogs.
This spread is pretty similar to that and the Steelers are nowhere near as good as the Saints were last season as the injuries and the age have finally taken their toll. Pittsburgh is in this position because Baltimore won last week, thus winning the tiebreaker for a first round bye. Pittsburgh is actually in worse shape this week because of additional injuries but yet it is favored by more points over the Broncos than it was against Cleveland last week which was four games worse than Denver. The Broncos come in riding a three-game losing streak so there is not a lot of momentum on their side but playing at home is a big edge. They were at home last week so there is no travel while the Steelers are travelling for the second straight week. Denver was only 3-5 at home this season but three of those losses came by five points or fewer and while the Steelers were 5-3 on the road, they were outscored by an average of nearly three points per game. It doesn't take a psychic to know that Denver will try and run the ball on offense as it has done pretty successfully over the second half of the season. Pittsburgh allowed fewer than 100 ypg this season but did give up an average of 4.0 ypc but which is still good but that is exactly one ypc more than it allowed last season. The Steelers have regressed as they have allowed 100 yards or more in four of their last seven games after doing so just three times in their first nine. Denver has gone over 150 yards in eight of its last 11 games. Pittsburgh is extremely banged up on offense with Ben Roethlisberger nursing a bad ankle and running back Rashard Mendenhall lost for the season with a knee injury. The offense has been inconsistent all season so these injuries are certainly not helping. The Steelers have been horrible in this role as they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as road favorites 7.5 to 14 points while Denver is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 home games against teams allowing 5.7 ypa through the air. 10* (108) Denver Broncos |