Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -120 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. After opening the season 0-4, the Broncos have won their last two games as the defense has really stepped up, allowing just one touchdown over that span and recording their first shutout since 2017 last week. Part of the reason for this recent success on defense is that the Broncos have five takeaways the last two weeks after having none in their first four games. New head coach Vic Fangio a defensive guy so his system looks to be finally taking hold. Denver has been a bit unlucky along the way as it has outgained four of six opponents and three of the four losses were by one possession including as pair by just two points. Denver is +31.5 ypg in yardage differential while the Chiefs are -15.8 ypg and both have played similar ranked schedules. Kansas City has dropped two straight games as it has on the negative side of time of possession by a combined 77:03-42:57 so the secret could be out. Denver has the ability to smash it and can keep control of the ball. The public is all over Kansas City which comes as no surprise being a high profile team that has dropped two straight games yet the line has come down, going from as much as -5.5 down to -3. Here, we play against road teams off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (304) Denver Broncos |
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10-14-19 | Lions v. Packers -3 | Top | 22-23 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. First place is on the line tonight in the best division in football which is the only one in the NFL that boasts four winning teams. Detroit suffered its first loss of the season two weeks ago against Kansas City and that defeat is looking worse now with the Chiefs having lost their last two games, both coming at home. We think the Lions are a little overrated at this point as they are ranked No. 21 in the current power rankings. After sweeping the season series the last two years, Detroit has won four in a row against Green Bay for the first time since the 1982 and 1983 seasons and that certainly has the attention of the Packers. Green Bay is coming off a big win over Dallas last Sunday to remain in first place in the NFC North. The lone loss came here against the Eagles in a game where it actually outgained the Eagles by 155 total yards. Here, we play against underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.8 or more yppl going up against teams allowing 5.8 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 36-13 ATS (73.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (276) Green Bay Packers |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | 20-7 | Loss | -119 | 49 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. This is similar to the Cleveland/Seattle matchup as we have one team with extra rest going up against a team playing on short rest. The difference here is that the team playing on short rest has to travel, albeit not very far and the extended rest team does not have to travel. The Rams are coming off a tough loss against Seattle and they have now lost two straight games. They are a game and a half behind San Francisco so that makes this a huge game for Los Angeles. The Rams are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The 49ers are coming off a thumping of the Browns on Monday night to improve to 4-0 and while they have been dominating, this is their biggest test on the road against a desperate team. Going back, the 49ers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. 9* (266) Los Angeles Rams |
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10-13-19 | Falcons -1 v. Cardinals | 33-34 | Loss | -128 | 49 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Atlanta got crushed at Houston last week as the defense got gashed for 592 total yards. The public is very low on the Falcons now 1-4 which includes three straight losses so this is a perfect time to buy low. Additionally, last week was the first time Atlanta got outgained so the record can be considered skewed. Atlanta is 9-0 in its last nine road games following a road loss of 21 or more points. The Cardinals picked up their first win of the season last Sunday against Cincinnati, the third to last ranked team in the NFL. It was also just the opposite for Arizona as it was outgained in each of its first four games before last week against the Bengals. The Cardinals are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up win. Here, we play on road favorites averaging 255 or more passing ypg, after allowing 7.0 or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 9* (267) Atlanta Falcons |
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10-13-19 | Texans v. Chiefs -4 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -103 | 46 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our AFC Game of the Year. All week, the media has been crushing Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes following the poor performance against the Colts and when elite teams are coming off games like that, bounce back efforts happen more often than not. The Chiefs were outgained by just seven yards against Indianapolis so there is no reason to take the loss from last week too serious. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. Houston put up 53 points last week against Atlanta which was 43 more points than what they put up in their previous game against Carolina. The feedback is the opposite of Kansas City as everyone is gushing about Houston now. The Texans hit the road and going back, they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a winning home record. Remember, no team is as good as it looked or as bad as it looked in its previous game. 10* (258) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-13-19 | Seahawks v. Browns +2.5 | Top | 32-28 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Seattle is coming off a big divisional win over the Rams last Thursday and while they have had extra time to prepare, this presents a letdown opportunity. Even more so, west coast teams traveling east for an early game. The Seahawks are 4-1 on the season despite getting outgained in two of their wins including a one-point win over lowly Cincinnati. The Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win. Cleveland will be an unpopular play this week based on its awful performance Monday night as well as the fact it will have had for less days than Seattle to get ready. The Browns outgained three of their first four opponents so the game against the 49ers is an aberration and a dropped to touchdown pass by Antonio Calloway, who was rusty following a four-game suspension, impacted the game completely. The Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss. 10* (256) Cleveland Browns |
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10-10-19 | Giants +17.5 v. Patriots | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. This is the ultimate contrarian play as the Giants are now up to a 17-point underdog against New England as they looks to bounce back from a poor effort against the Vikings following a two-game winning streak. Many are pointing to injuries for New York as it will be without Saquon Barkley once again and will also be missing wide receiver Sterling Shephard and tight end Evan Engram. With the struggles of the Giants defense, Tom Brady is going to put up some points and Daniel Jones is going to have to hang with him. This is the fourth time already this season New England has been favored by more than two touchdowns which tells us one of two things. The Patriots are exceptionally good or the schedule has been exceptionally soft. We can all it a mix of both as New England has covered two of the three big spreads but those were against awful teams and taking out the game against the 4-1 Bills which they easily could have lost, the Patriots four other opponents are a combined 1-17. Here, we play against teams averaging 27 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 23-27 ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (103) New York Giants |
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10-07-19 | Browns +5 v. 49ers | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. San Francisco is off to a 3-0 start it is not overly impressive. The 49ers have defeated a poor Tampa Bay team, a winless Cincinnati team and a Pittsburgh team without its starting quarterback. Overall, those teams are a combined 3-12 and the strength of schedule is ranked No. 24. Even coming off a bye week, they are banged up. The 49ers suffered a significant loss in their latest win with a foot injury that will sideline cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon for at least a month. The other major injury the 49ers are dealing with is at left tackle, where veteran Joe Staley will miss at least six weeks with a broken leg. Cleveland is now 2-2 following its big win in Baltimore last Sunday and a win here is necessary to remain in first place in the AFC North which is now just a two-team race with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh out of it. This line opened at -3 and has steadily increased throughout the week so we are getting some great value. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging 370 or more ypg on offense going up against a team with a defense allowing between 335 and 370 ypg. This situation is 61-28 ATS (68.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (477) Cleveland Browns |
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10-06-19 | Colts +11.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 59 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Kansas City is rolling along again as it is off to a 4-0 start although it did fail to cover for the first time last Sunday against the Lions. The Chiefs have now scored 25 points in all 23 games he has been under center which is pretty extraordinary when you think about it. The problem is, Kansas City has not had a defense for him. That is the case again this season. Over the last two games, the Chiefs had Baltimore subdued but allowed a couple late scores to make things more interesting and needed a last minute touchdown last week after giving up 30 points to the Lions. Over the last two seasons, the Chiefs have been double-digit favorites only twice, both last year, going 1-1 ATS but those were against Arizona and Oakland, two of the worst teams in the league at the time. Indianapolis is not a bad team and this line is simply too high. In the playoff game last year, the line was -4 so this line is saying Andrew Luck is worth seven points and that is a bit inflated. 10* (475) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-06-19 | Vikings -4.5 v. Giants | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 52 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Daniel Jones has turned some heads by posting a pair of wins for the Giants. He was incredible against Tampa Bay but he put up a 78 passer rating last week against a bad Redskins defense and now he faces the sixth best defense in the league. New York is expected to get Saquon Barkley back earlier than expected but this week will not be that week. Wayne Gallman had a decent game in his place against Washington but that same success will be hard to come by here. The Giants defense played well last week, holding Washington just three points, but again, it was the Redskins which have the fifth lowest offensive output in the league. Minnesota has not done much better on offense but the three bad games came against defenses ranked in the top ten in the NFL. Kirk Cousins has been getting a lot of flack but this is the type of game he can flourish in, similar to his most recent solid outing against the Raiders. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs can both go off against the Giants suspect secondary. 9* (459) Minnesota Vikings |
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10-06-19 | Ravens v. Steelers +3.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 52 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our AFC North Game of the Year. Why is everybody so high on Baltimore? The Ravens opened the season with a 59-10 win over the Dolphins and we know what they are made of. They then struggled to beat the Cardinals, fell down big against Kansas City before a couple late scores and were blasted by Cleveland. The defense has been awful as they have allowed 500 yards in two straight games for the first time in franchise history and the 40 points allowed last week were the second most under head coach John Harbaugh. Offensively, Lamar Jackson has digressed since the first two games as last week, a 50-yard touchdown in the final minute skewed his numbers. The Steelers picked up their first win of the season over the Bengals as quarterback Mason Rudolph led a very efficient offense. There have been critics about how much he checked down but he got the job done and he will air it out more downfield against a banged up secondary. Pittsburgh has had trouble running the ball but Baltimore cannot stop the run, allowing 4.9 ypc which is fifth worst in the NFL. 10* (452) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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10-03-19 | Rams +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. This line opened at a pickem and has been driven up a couple points as everyone is down on the Rams now after their pathetic defensive performance against the Buccaneers last Sunday. Los Angeles still outgained Tampa Bay by 54 total yards but they were undone by four turnovers that included three interceptions by Jared Goff. The Rams are now 3-1 on the season as they have outgained all four opponents. The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. A lot of people are sold on Seattle but we are not one of those. The Seahawks beat a bad Cincinnati team by one point, beat a Pittsburgh team that lost Ben Roethlisberger, lost to New Orleans and beat a bad Arizona team. Many will talk about how Seattle has the distinct rushing advantage here but that is not the case based upon the ypc model. Based on ypc averages, the Rams have a better ypc average on offense, allow fewer ypc on defense and have a positive differential between its offense and defense. The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (301) Los Angeles Rams |
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09-30-19 | Bengals +3.5 v. Steelers | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. A few years ago this would have been a marquee Monday night game but now last place is on the line. Ben Roethlisberger's season-ending right-elbow injury and a defense that's been unable to get critical stops has Pittsburgh facing just its second 0-4 start in 1968. Not much was expected of Cincinnati this season and that has proven to be correct as the Bengals are also 0-3 but they have been more consistent of the two teams. Cincinnati had a chance last week against Buffalo but allowed a late touchdown to remain winless. It also could have won the season opener against Seattle but lost by a point despite outgaining the Seahawks by 197 total yards. The Bengals have lost eight straight and 11 of 12 against the Steelers but of course there is no Roethlisberger this time around. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games while the Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Here, we play on road teams that are getting outrushed by their opponents by 40 or more ypg on the season, after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (277) Cincinnati Bengals |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints +3 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 52 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Dallas looks like one of the top teams in the league right now after starting the season 3-0 straight up and against the number. Digging deeper however shows this might not be the case. The Cowboys are ranked No. 8 in the Sagarin power rankings and this is due to the schedule they have seen as they have played the easiest schedule in the NFL as they have faced teams that are a combined 1-8. Certainly, this is not their fault but because of the record, they are being overvalued and that is the case here being listed as road favorites in one of the toughest environments in the league. New Orleans is 2-1 on the season which includes an impressive win over Seattle last week to conclude a two-game roadtrip. The stats were not pretty but things will get better. The Saints are entering their second full game with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater taking first-team snaps in place of the injured Drew Brees and expect to see progress from a unit that gained 265 yards and accounted for three of the Saints' five touchdowns. In those same Sagarin power rankings, New Orleans is actually one spot higher than Dallas which again proves the wrong team is favored. Here, we play against road favorites averaging 5.7 or more yppl, after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (276) New Orleans Saints |
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09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos -3 | 26-24 | Loss | -107 | 48 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Broncos are off to a surprising 0-3 start following a loss in Green Bay last week. We played on Denver last week but failed to get the cover despite getting outgained by just two yards. The Broncos lost by eight points at Oakland in the season opener but outgained the Raiders and two weeks ago, they lost at home by two points against Chicago yet still outgained the Bears.. another surprise is that the Broncos are still seeking their first sack and first takeaway even though Von Miller and Bradley Chubb have played 96 percent of the snaps. This is just the second home game of the season where the Broncos notoriously have a big advantage. Jacksonville is coming off its first win over the season as it defeated Tennessee at home last Thursday night and while it has the edge because of the scheduling that comes with extra rest, the situation is not good at all. The Jaguars were outgained by 48 yards against the Titans and were outplayed for three quarters after building a 14-0 lead after the first quarter. Denver is in desperation mode right now by having gone 8-23 over its last 31 games which is the worst stretch in half of a century and we feel the home team comes through here at a short price, Jacksonville is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 road games after a win by 10 or more points. 9* (274) Denver Broncos |
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09-29-19 | Chiefs v. Lions +7 | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 44 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. It comes as no surprise that the largest of amount of the money is on the Chiefs this week at 67 percent yet this line has not budged. Bettors will not be stepping in front of this Chiefs train with the exception of us as there is too much value based on what we have seen from each side. Kansas City is coming off a big emotional win over Baltimore last Sunday and with a pair of big home games against Indianapolis and Houston so the Chiefs are in a tricky spot here. Detroit should also be 3-0 but allowed Arizona to come back from an 18-point deficit that resulted in a tie in its season opener. The Lions are coming off a pair of upset wins against the Chargers and Eagles and this makes it three straight games where they are the underdog. The victory over the Chargers snapped a three-game losing streak at home going back to last season and we think the winning culture that Matt Patricia brought over from New England is finally taking over. Kansas City is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games after gaining 450 or more ypg over its last three games and here, we play on home teams coming off an upset win as an underdog, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of 75 percent or higher. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 9* (262) Detroit Lions |
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09-29-19 | Panthers v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Game of the Month. The world got a taste of Kyle Allen last week in place of Cam Newton and he was great by going 19-26 for 261 yards and four touchdowns but that came against one of the projected worst defenses in the NFL. Additionally, there was not much tape on Allen so Arizona was prepared for what was coming but Houston has the luxury of a pair of game tapes. The Panthers put up a season-high 38 points last week and that output is keeping this line in check as the Texans are giving just a point and a half more than the Cardinals laid and there is no way those two teams are a difference of a point and a half. The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Houston is off to a 2-1 start following an upset win at Los Angeles last week over the Chargers. They could and should be 3-0 but allowed the Saints to drive downfield in under a minute to kick the game winning field goal. This is the first of two straight home games and Houston could take early charge in the AFC South with a sweep. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 141-87 ATS (61.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (252) Houston Texans |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. We love this spot for the Eagles on Thursday night. They have dropped two straight games by a combined seven points including a loss at home against Detroit this past Sunday despite outgaining the Lions by 86 total yards. Dropping to 1-3 will not completely kill their season, but it will not help matters as it is still a sizeable hole to climb out of. Only 27 teams that started the season 1-3 have made the playoffs so it is a challenge. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record. Green Bay is off to a perfect 3-0 start and it is being led by the defense that is allowing just 11.7 ppg which is second best in the NFL. The issue is the Packers have been fortunate to keep the points off the board as they are No. 13 in total defense, allowing 328.3 ypg. A big reason for this variance is that Green Bay is +6 in turnover differential and this positive uptake will not last throughout the season. The Packers are getting outgained by 41.7 ypg which is not a good sign but the fact they are 3-0 straight up and ATS is putting the public behind them and in a big way. 10* (101) Philadelphia Eagles |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. The Bears go into Monday night's matchup with the third-worst offense in the NFL through the first two weeks of the season. Chicago's offense has produced just one touchdown through two games, a one-yard-run by David Montgomery last week, and Mitch Trubisky is a combined 42 of 72 for 348 yards and an interception. They do get to face the third worst defense in the NFL and while some of that can be attributed to bad play, facing the Eagles and Cowboys the first two weeks did not help. On the other side, we know all about the stout Bears defense but the Washington offense has been pretty solid as Case Keenum has done his part, throwing for 601 yards and five touchdown passes with no interceptions. The Redskins have been solid in these spots are they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games against winning teams when coming off a pair of losses. The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a losing home record. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems that allowed 335 or more total ypg, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 34-13 ATS (72.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (490) Washington Redskins |
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09-22-19 | Bengals +6 v. Bills | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 44 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Bills are off to a 2-0 start for the first time since 2014 but we have to pump the breaks here. The wins came against the Giants and Jets, arguably two of the worst rosters in the NFL and they caught a break with the travel of the two road games. Both were played at MetLife Stadium so they actually stayed in town between games and did not even have to move hotels so those were two very unique back-to-back road games. The Bengals are 0-2 after getting pounded by San Francisco last week. They did play very well in their opener as they lost in Seattle by just a point and outgained the Seahawks by 197 yards. This is another overinflated line based on records that are not really indicative of the teams as coming into the season, Buffalo was a three-point favorite in this game. Here we play against home favorites that had a losing record last season, in conference games. This situation is 149-91 ATS (62.1 percent) since 1983. 9* (467) Cincinnati Bengals |
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09-22-19 | Jets +23 v. Patriots | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 44 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Plug your nose for this one. New England is once again the best team in the NFL as it is off to a 2-0 start by a combined score of 76-3. Not many will want to step in front of this team but laying over three touchdowns in the NFL is pretty much unheard of. Since 2003, there have been five favorites of 20 or more points and those teams went 0-5 ATS and coincidentally, New England was involved in four of those. The Jets are 0-2 which includes a loss last Monday against the Browns as Sam Darnold was ruled out during the week with mono and then having Trevor Siemian get injured early in the game. Luke Falk played really well going 20-25 for 198 yards and that was with never practicing with the starters. Here, we play against teams after two straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 39-15 ATS (72.2 percent) since 1983. Also, we play on divisional road underdogs heading into their bye week. This situation is 44-19-1 ATS (69.8 percent) since 2002. 9* (473) New York Jets |
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09-22-19 | Broncos +7.5 v. Packers | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Game of the Week. Denver is 0-2 for the first time since 1999 but it has played better than that 0-2 record indicates. The Broncos lost by eight points at Oakland in the season opener but outgained the Raiders and last week, they lost at home by two points against Chicago yet still outgained the Bears. Joe Flacco has been criticized but he has been very good with 280 ypg while tossing two touchdowns and just one pick. Green Bay is off to the opposite start with a 2-0 record but it has also been opposite in the stats. The Packers were outgained by both Chicago and Minnesota and coming of a pair of divisional wins, they are in for a letdown as well as a lookahead to the Eagles on a short week as they face Philadelphia next Thursday night. The line is way too big as records alone cannot dictate a line. Here, we play against favorites off a home win, in the first month of the season. This situation is 78-37 ATS (67.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (461) Denver Broncos |
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09-22-19 | Ravens v. Chiefs -5.5 | Top | 28-33 | Loss | -100 | 44 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The Chiefs head back to Kansas City for their home opener after posting a pair of double-digit wins on the road. Playing Jacksonville and Oakland helps but those are not horrible teams. Patrick Mahomes has been sensational with 821 passing yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. They have looked very impressive as expected and this has been a very odd line move as the number has come down from initial opening. The Chiefs are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win. The line movement is due to the start of the Baltimore Ravens which are also off to a 2-0 start. Their level of opposition has been much worse though that has definitely played into the record. Lamar Jackson has been a pleasant early surprise but the jury is still out as facing the Dolphins, with the worse roster in the league, and the Cardinals, with the worst passing defense in the league last season, has played a role. Here we play on home favorites off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, team that had a winning record last season. This situation is 37-12 (75.5 percent) since 1983. 9* (466) Kansas City Chiefs |
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09-19-19 | Titans -1 v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. We would normally take a look at the home underdog in a primetime game but not in this case as the Jaguars are a mess right now. They are down to their second string quarterback and last week, Jalen Ramsey got into a sideline fight with Doug Marrone and has now demanded a trade. From a matchup standpoint, the defenses should decide this game. Jacksonville is allowing 119.5 rushing ypg through two weeks, and with the Titans being a team that relies heavily on their running game, that is good news for Tennessee. On the other side, the Titans ranked eighth in the league in defense last year, and through two games in 2019, they have allowed just 32 points, and they have played some potent offenses. Offensively, look for Marcus Mariota to target tight end Delanie Walker and wide receiver Adam Humphries more than last week, especially on third down. Here, we play on road teams against division opponents, first month of the season, non-playoff team from last season who won four or more of their last five games. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (301) Tennessee Titans |
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09-15-19 | Bears -2.5 v. Broncos | 16-14 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Sunday Road Warrior. The Bears hit the road following their disappointing home loss to the Packers last Thursday night. The offense looked pretty bad, especially the rushing game where they managed only 46 yards on 15 carries (3.1 ypc) but Chicago faced a vastly improved Packers defense. The rest advantage is a huge edge going from a Thursday game and facing a team coming off a late Monday night game. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Denver did not look good either as it lost in Oakland with the secondary getting lit up by Derek Carr. Joe Flacco did have a good debut for the Broncos but he faces a defense that is on a different level. The Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Here, we play against home teams that allowed 7.0 or more passing ypa last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (285) Chicago Bears |
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09-15-19 | Saints v. Rams -1 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. This is the rematch of that controversial NFC Championship Game and while the word revenge will be tossed around leading up to the game, we are not a fan of road revenge in this spot. The Rams are coming off a win in Carolina last Sunday by three points and while the offense did not look very good, we can expect a bounce back this week against a Saints defense that allowed 414 total yards against the Texans. New Orleans defeated Houston on Monday Night Football but we still cashed on the Texans and the Saints are now on a 1-10 ATS run in the first two weeks of the season the last six years. The Saints now hit the road for the first time where they were excellent last season but going back, they have failed to cover four straight games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on home favorites that outscored opponents by 4.0 or more ppg last season, after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (284) Los Angeles Rams |
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09-15-19 | Cowboys v. Redskins +6 | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Dallas looked great last week, falling behind 7-0 only to outscore the Giants 35-3 before allowing a late touchdown. The Cowboys were actually -2 in first downs and outgained New York by just 24 total years to it was a skewed final score. Taking a look at this line shows that Dallas would be an 11.5-point favorite at home and it was favored by 7.5-points over the Giants last week and the Redskins are four points worse than the Giants. Washington blew a 17-0 lead against Philadelphia and got a fortunate backdoor cover with a touchdown with just a few seconds remaining. Despite nearly 90 percent of bets laying the points with Dallas, we have seen a steady flow of sharp Redskins money hit the market, causing big reverse line movement that dropped the line down to 4.5 early in the week. Washington falls into a simple yet very effective situation as we play against road favorites off a home win, in September games. This situation is 40-14 ATS (74.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (272) Washington Redskins |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -111 | 70 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Game of the Week. Pittsburgh got hammered in New England last week by 30 points as the offense managed a mere field goal on 15 first downs. Playing that New England defense can do that to a team and we expect the Steelers to come out with a lot more fire than they showed last week. Returning home certainly helps where the Steelers are 23-9 over the last four seasons. Seattle is coming off a one-point win over Cincinnati at home and it did not look good in doing so. The Seahawks were outgained by 196 total yards and Ben Roethlisberger is licking his chops after Andy Dalton threw for a career high 418 yards. The public is down on the Steelers and is rushing to grab the points with Seattle as fast as they can. However, we have actually seen the line move to -4 in some places even though 75 percent of the bets are backing Seattle. Here, we play on teams that lost their opening game on the road and are back home in Week Two. This situation is 41-25-1 ATS (62.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (276) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers -6.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. It was a disappointing opening week for both Carolina and Tampa Bay as both lost at home in Week One. The Buccaneers were the bigger disappointment however as they lost to San Francisco in a bad way, committing four turnovers in the two-touchdown loss. The Panthers rallied from a 13-0 deficit to within three points on two different occasions but fell short against the Rams. After a sloe start, the offense moved the ball great in the second half under the new Norv Turner offense and we expect that to carry over into Thursday on a short turnaround that favors the home team. Carolina is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games after allowing 30 points or more last game and it falls into a great situation as we play on NFL division home teams on Thursdays coming off a home loss. This situation is 12-4 ATS (75 percent) since 1980. 10* (102) Carolina Panthers |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. A lot of talk is about how New Orleans will be extremely motivated following the controversial playoff loss from last season against the Rams. That shows the short memory these people have considering the Saints lost on a last play against the Vikings in the playoffs two years ago and opened last season with a home loss against Tampa Bay. Houston is no less motivated to get the season off to a positive start as it is also coming off a playoff loss following an 11-2 end to the regular season. This line is severely overinflated for the Saints against a team that has one of the best overall rosters in the league. Here, we play against home teams that allowed 7.0 or more passing ypa last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (479) Houston Texans |
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09-08-19 | Giants +8.5 v. Cowboys | 17-35 | Loss | -125 | 52 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Dallas has been in the news for a while now with all of the contract issues and with Ezekiel Elliott now signed, there are Super Bowl talks. That coupled with the Giants downward spiral has inflated this line. This also fits with the buy bad and sell good. Here, we play on opening-week road teams that won between four and six games the prior season. This situation is 41-16-4 ATS (71.9%) since 2004. Additionally, we play on Week One divisional road teams that won six or fewer games the prior season. This situation is 24-8-1 ATS (75 percent) since 2001. 9* (475) New York Giants |
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09-08-19 | Colts +7 v. Chargers | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. You have heard the term buy low and sell high and a similar term exists in handicapping where you buy bad and sell good. The bad in this case is the retirement of Andrew Luck and the public completely going against the Colts now. This line opened at Chargers -3.5 then went off the board with Luck retiring and it re-opened at Los Angeles -7. Is Andrew Luck worth 3.5 points? Possibly but that is a big jump in the NFL and Jacoby Brissett is more than capable to run this offense with one of the best rosters around. 9* (473) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Game of the Week. The public are victims of recency bias and are inclined to back the Rams because of their Super Bowl trip. They opened as three-point road favorites and despite nearly 80 percent of bets backing Los Angeles, the line remained frozen. Late this week, the line has actually come down which makes this the perfect case of reverse line movement. Cam Newton is healthy and feels better than ever. Here, we play against the defending Super Bowl loser if on the road in the season opener in non-conference games. This situation is 14-1 ATS (93.3 percent) since 1990. 10* (468) Carolina Panthers |
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09-08-19 | Ravens v. Dolphins +7 | Top | 59-10 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Miami fire sale continued this past week and the betting markets are making their adjustments. The Ravens opened as 3.5-point road favorites and they are receiving nearly 90 percent of bets, making them the top public play of Week One. This massive backing pushed Baltimore all the way to -7 midweek. As bad as Miami is considered to be, Baltimore is not a touchdown better, especially on the road. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems that allowed 385 or more total ypg last season. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (460) Miami Dolphins |
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09-05-19 | Packers +3 v. Bears | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Thursday Season Opening Enforcer. The 2019 NFL season kicks off with the oldest rivalry as Green Bay takes on Chicago. The Packers have a new head coach in Matt LaFleur and he can rev up an already potent offense. As the offensive coordinator in Tennessee last season, the Titans finished No. 7 in rushing offense, as the offense coordinator for the Rams in 2017, they averaged 29.9 ppg, more than doubling their average from 2016 (14.0 ppg) and in 2016, he tutored Matt Ryan who led the league in passer rating and was named NFL MVP. Aaron Rodgers has a new coach for the first time in his NFL career and even though last season was disappointing, Rodgers was exceptional. He has been one of the best at avoiding interceptions, and last season he only threw two picks. He ended up with the lowest interception percentage, 0.3, in the history of the NFL. He had one of his best games here in the opener last season as he rallied Green Bay from a 20-point deficit. Rodgers is 16-5 against the Bears during the regular season with a 45-to-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio with one loss coming in 2013 after he left the game with an injury after the first series. Green Bay added a lot of new names over the offseason, most notably to the defensive side of the ball as they focused on the pass rush and revamped the safety position. While we know the Bears defense is the strength, the offense showed signs of improvement but they could have trouble against a revamped Packers defense. In Week One, division underdogs are 17-4-1 (81 percent) since 2014. 10* (451) Green Bay Packers |
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02-03-19 | Patriots -2 v. Rams | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our Super Bowl LIII Winner. A ton of sharp money came in on New England as soon as the line was posted, which caused it to move 2 whole points in just nine minutes. It has gone up another half-point since then and settled in at 2.5 for most of this week despite a majority of later action coming in on the Rams. There are some spots where -2 is available at a little added juice but laying the 2.5 points is more than fine as it comes in under the key number of three. When it first came out, we had a lean on the Rams but based on the sharp money reports and matchup analysis, we have shifted to New England. Covers writer Patrick Everson spoke with Aaron Kessler at the Golden Nugget about what has been happening and what is to be predicted. "We were getting one-sided action early on the Patriots," Kessler said of what prompted the move to 3, and oddly enough, the first wager that came in at that number was a low-five-figure bet on the Patriots. But that course quickly changed. "We're back to 2.5 flat, plenty of Rams money flowing in. If I had to guess, I'd say it closes 2.5." The shift to the Patriots is mostly based on how its offensive line is playing and how it has protected Tom Brady. The majority of the talking heads and gasbags claim that the Rams have the talent up front to disrupt that offense line and make Brady move but we do not think that will be the case even though the defensive line is very talented. Running the ball behind that offensive line will be key as well. Since the Belichick-Brady era began in 2000, they are 11-0 in the postseason when a player rushes for 100 yards, and 51-1 in the regular season. The Rams allow a below average 4.8 ypc. Even though they are favored, New England is still acting like the underdog and that is a big motivational factor. New England is 17-4 ATS against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while the Rams are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (101) New England Patriots |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -103 | 100 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Playoff Game of the Year. This line is holding strong at -3 and will likely stay on this number before kickoff. Some demons were removed last week with Kansas City as it defeated the Colts and essentially removed any pressure going forward. The Chiefs have had one of their best seasons in years and appear to have finally found their franchise quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. But in order to complete their ascension, they will need to beat the very best the NFL has to offer in Bill Belichick and the Patriots. New England has had a dynasty going for a while now yet they are only 3-4 in the postseason on the road under Belichick, which opens the door for a team as well-coached and dangerous as the Chiefs to perhaps negate that advantage. Additionally, the Patriots went 3-5 on the road this season with all five of those losses coming against non-playoff teams. w England played a near flawless game last week against the Chargers but it did catch Los Angeles in a tough spot having to play its second straight road game on the east coast in an early game. Much is being said about how cold it is going to be in Kansas City and how good of a cold-weather quarterback Tom Brady is. Those claims are pretty false however as he is not great in real cold weather (20 and under). He has completed 125 of 223 passes (56.1 percent) for 1,307 yards, 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions while posting a QB rating of 80.7. here, we play on home favorites in the second half of the season that are outgaining opponents by 0.4 to 1 yppl going up against a team with a +/- 0.4 yppl differential, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 72-37 ATS (66.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (314) Kansas City Chiefs |
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01-20-19 | Rams +3.5 v. Saints | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 97 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFC Championship Winner. We caught a tough break with the Saints last Sunday as a missed field goal late in the game prevented a cover. New Orleans comes in as a much smaller favorite this time around but the number is significant as the half-point is big for the Rams. They dominated Dallas last week in a game that was not as close as the final score indicated. The same can be said for the Saints which outgained the Eagles by 188 total yards and shut them out over the final 49 minutes of the game. While revenge is not a significant factor in a game of this magnitude, the Rams loss here in November ended their undefeated start and they have a substantial addition this ti9me around. Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas burned Los Angeles with 12 catches for 211 yards. However, the Rams did not have Aqib Talib on the field in that game and he can be a difference maker. The Saints defense received a huge blow last week against Philadelphia, when it lost defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins for the remainder of the season with a torn Achilles. The rushing defense is one of the best in the NFL as New Orleans has not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season, Well, entering last week, the Cowboys had allowed just three 100-yard rushers the entire season and just four 70-yard rushers. Both Todd Gurley (115) and CJ Anderson (123) eclipsed the century mark and hit 70 in the first half alone, for the Rams. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season averaging 265 or more passing ypg going up against a team allowing between 230-265 passing ypg, after allowing 7 or more passing ypa in two straight games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons including a 16-1 ATS record the last five seasons. 9* (311) Los Angeles Rams |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints -8 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our Sunday NFL Eagles/Saints Winner. This is the first time since 2009 that the Saints have had a first round bye and with this being one of the best home fields in the NFL, this is big for New Orleans. Since the beginning of the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era in 2006 the team has a 7-5 postseason record. Payton and Brees are 5-0 in home playoff games, including 2-0 at home in the divisional round. In those five home games, Brees threw for 1,529 yards with 12 touchdown passes against one interception and his career playoff passer rating in New Orleans is 116.8. Another big reason that New Orleans got a bye was for rest purposes as the offense started to look tired down the stretch. It was actually a two-week layoff for most starters as they rested Week 17. What Nick Foles has done has been incredible the last two seasons but this is where we feel the magic ends. Philadelphia was 6-7 and outside of the playoff picture when it turned to Foles. Including the playoffs, he has now started 12 games for Philadelphia the last two seasons, and the Eagles have won 10 of them. The Saints dominated Wentz in the first meeting this season and they should do the same to Foles this week. Philadelphia is 4-13 ATS revenging a road loss by 14 points while the Saints are 25-6 ATS in their last 31 home games against teams with a winning road record. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983 with the average margin of victory being +14.1 ppg. 10* (308) New Orleans Saints |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our Saturday NFL Cowboys/Rams Winner. The Rams stormed out of the gate with an 8-0 record but they became pretty average the rest of the season as they went 5-3 over the final eight games. With the exception of an early season win over the Chargers, Los Angeles struggled against playoff teams as it went 3-3 in six games with the three wins coming by a combined 10 points. Jared Goff was outstanding to start the season but over the last six weeks of the season, he has dealt with much more pressure, and as the pressure came, so did his mistakes. While the regression of Goff played a big part in the second half, the defense performed pretty bad as well. In those final six games against playoff teams, the Rams allowed 33.8 ppg and on the season, the Rams allowed a higher ypc average than any other team in the league. This means Ezekiel Elliott could go off again after gaining 137 yards against the Seahawks last week. Additionally, Dak Prescott kept the Seattle defense off balance with quarterback draws and sweeps and he will utilize that again in keeping the ultra-aggressive Rams front seven on their toes which will slow the pass rush down. On the other side, if the Cowboys defense plays a similar game that they did against the Saints, they can win this game outright. This is a home game for the Rams but the stadium will not be fully Los Angeles fans. A 50/50 split that some say is coming seems unlikely as the Rams' success the past two years has strengthened their hold on the bulk of locals but 60/40 or 65/35 isn't out of the question. Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games against teams allowing 350 ypg. 10* (303) Dallas Cowboys |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our Saturday NFL Colts/Chiefs Winner. Indianapolis has essentially won two straight playoff games on the road and now comes it biggest test as it leaves the AFC South to face the top seed in the AFC. The Colts have been on a solid run with 10 wins in their last 11 games and even though we bet on them last week, it is not a very impressive run however as eight of those came against non-playoff teams, including two against Tennessee with Blaine Gabbert. This is a dangerous team but what worked against Houston will not work here. One huge factor that came out of last week was that the Colts were able to play a soft zone and Deshaun Watson was not able to get anything going. For a team that played more snaps in zone coverage than almost any team in the NFL this season, it is not a good sign that this week's opponent was so dominant against zone coverages during the regular season. Given the design of Kansas City's offense and the weapons they have, it's not exactly surprising that zones could not stop Mahomes. The Chiefs bounced back from a pair of losses and beat Oakland in Week 17 to secure the No. 1 seed and while there is a new quarterback in place this season, they will be out to make up for last season when they lost to Tennessee in the Wild Card round after blowing a 21-3 lead. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983 with the average margin of victory being +14.1 ppg. 9* (302) Kansas City Chiefs |
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01-06-19 | Eagles +6.5 v. Bears | Top | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our Sunday NFL Eagles/Bears Winner. The Eagles are back in the playoffs behind the arm of Nick Foles, who has made three starts, and a defense that has played well down the stretch. The defense has given up only 4.8 yppl in his starts (for reference, the Bears and Ravens tied for best in the NFL in the regular season, allowing 4.8 yppl), and a lot of this can be attributed to Foles and the offense in his ability to slow down the game. Facing the Bears defense will be a challenge but he was able to defeat the No. 8 pass defense of the Rams in his first start this year. We are catching an inflated number due to the Bears cover success of late as they are 9-1 ATS over their last 10 games. Chicago has impressed for sure and that defense is obviously the strength. The offense averaged just 5.6 yppl on the season and the Bears are not going to change much based on the somewhat limited Mitchell Trubisky. He has not exactly impressed since returning from his shoulder as they are averaging just 19.3 ppg and he has only four touchdowns compared to three interceptions in those four games. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against defenses allowing 90 or fewer ypg rushing while Chicago is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 55-25 ATS (68.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (107) Philadelphia Eagles |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -1 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our Saturday NFL Seahawks/Cowboys Winner. We expect to see a good deal of running the football in this matchup and the edge goes to Dallas in a strength against strength on one side and strength against weakness on the other. Seattle finished the regular season first in rushing yards per game and fifth in yards per carry so it will continue to try and pound the ball. However, this will be an excellent test against a Dallas defense ranked fifth in yards per carry allowed, led by linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch. On the other side, Dallas was ranked 10th in rushing offense led by Ezekiel Elliott who gashed the Seahawks defense with 127 yards on 16 carries (7.9 ypc) in the first meeting and this was a problem for the Seahawks all season. They finished dead last in the NFL in yards per carry average at 4.9 so Elliot should have another big game. The Cowboys are 16-4 in 20 games when he rushes for 100 yards and while one of those losses was against the Seahawks, that game was in Seattle and Dallas has only lost to Green Bay at home in those 100-yard games. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and they fall into a successful situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against a team averaging between 23 and 27, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (104) Dallas Cowboys |
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01-05-19 | Colts +1 v. Texans | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our Saturday NFL Colts/Texans Winner. Last season, we saw all four road teams cover in the Wild Card Round and the big reason for that was due to all four home teams being favored by at least six points. This year, only one team is favored by that many points and we are starting off by backing the smallest underdog team of the weekend. The Colts are grabbing 62 percent of the offshore action and they are a sleeper team by many to advance a ways in the playoffs thanks to winning nine of their last 10 games. It is not a very impressive run however as eight of those came against non-playoff teams, including two against Tennessee with Blaine Gabbert, Indianapolis did have an impressive shutout against Dallas but the Cowboys were coming off an emotional win over Philadelphia. That being said, the Houston winning streak was very similar in that most wins came against non-playoff teams. The division-clinching win over Jacksonville snapped a four-game streak of getting outgained while the Colts have outgained each of their last seven opponents including a 121-yard advantage here in Houston a month ago. Andrew Luck tore apart the secondary for 399 yards and there is no reason to think he will not do it again considering Nick Foles threw for an Eagles-record 471 yards alongside four touchdowns two weeks ago. The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record while Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against teams with a winning record. 9* (101) Indianapolis Colts |
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12-30-18 | Colts v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 33-17 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Sunday Night Primetime Winner. The Titans have won four in row, and their strength is their defense. Tennessee is second in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 18.0 ppg, and they have not yielded more than 16 points in any of their past three games. Some will scoff at that four-game winning streak considering the wins came against the Jets, Jaguars, Giants and Redskins but many will forget the two-game winning streak prior to that against the Patriots and Cowboys. Indianapolis has won eight of its last nine games but half of those wins came by a field goal or less, three coming at home and while blowout wins over Dallas and Tennessee look impressive, they were at home and the one against the Titans, Mariota left the game in the second quarter. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has owned the Titans since he entered the league. He is 10-0 against Tennessee, but Luck noted this week that the past doesn't have any impact on this game and he is 100 percent correct. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after one or more consecutive wins, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 79-40 ATS (66.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (322) Tennessee Titans |
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12-30-18 | Bears +4.5 v. Vikings | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Vikings control their own destiny when it comes to the 2018 NFL playoff picture as they have a half-game lead over the Eagles for the only remaining NFC postseason spot. Win and they are in and if they lose, they need the Eagles to lose as well. The NFL arranged the schedule to minimize the anticlimactic outcomes, moving the Bears-Vikings game to the late-afternoon slot so it would be played simultaneously with Eagles-Redskins, Cardinals-Seahawks and 49ers-Rams. Minnesota is an overpriced favorite here with underachiever Kirk Cousins at quarterback who is now 4-23 in his career in games against teams that have a winning record. No NFC defense has given up fewer points than Chicago this season and the Bears have said they won't take their foot off the gas in the season finale as they have something to play for as well. Head coach Matt Nagy, whose Bears have a shot to move up a seed from No. 3 should it win and the Rams lose to the 49ers, indicated his team would go all out to secure such a result. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983. 9* (325) Chicago Bears |
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12-30-18 | Dolphins v. Bills -5 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 46 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. After a 3-0 start, Miami has lost eight of its last 12 games with injuries playing a big role in that. There could have been two more losses in there with the miraculous win against New England going the other way and the win over Buffalo could have been a loss also had the Bills converted that Josh Allen to Charles Clay pass. The Dolphins have been outgained in nine straight games and there is nothing to play for here. Buffalo played hard last week against the Patriots and the goal here is to initiate some revenge while getting to .500 at home for the season. Three of those losses came against the Chargers, Patriots and Bears with the other coming against the Jets despite Buffalo winning the yardage battle by 120 yards. Buffalo is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 24 or more ppg while Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games after playing a game at home and 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. Here we play on teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 40-17 ATS (70.2 percent) since 1983. 9* (320) Buffalo Bills |
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12-30-18 | Jaguars v. Texans -6.5 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Game of the Month. By way of CBS Sports, the Texas have four chances to secure a first round bye but only two are realistic. First, if they win Sunday against the Jaguars and have the Patriots lose or tie, they are the No. 2 seed. Second, the Texans can also win, have the Chiefs lose, the Chargers lose and get the strength of victory tiebreaker over the Chiefs. Houston lost to Philadelphia last week but became the sixth team since 1980 to reach the playoffs after a 0-3 start on Sunday evening when Pittsburgh lost to New Orleans. The Texans will rely on Deshaun Watson who has played clean football over the past five games, throwing eight touchdown passes with no interceptions and running for three more scores. The Jaguars defense played well again against Miami but they have a bigger challenge this week and the offense continues to sputter. Jacksonville is 4-18 ATS in its last 22 games after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging fewer than 1.25 turnovers per game going up against teams forcing fewer than 1.25 tpg, after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 52-27 ATS (65.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (314) Houston Texans |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. This is one of the better rivalries in the NFL and it should be no different tonight. The Raiders could be hosting their last ever game in Oakland so the scene will be pretty intense and gives the Raiders a significant edge. While it has been a disappointing season for the Raiders, they have played better of late as they have outgained three of their last opponents while one of the exceptions was getting outgained by Kansas City by just 27 yards. One of the players who has caught a lot of flak is Derek Carr but he has passed for 3,697 yards and 19 touchdowns and has not thrown an interception in the last nine games. The Broncos have lost two straight games following a three-game winning streak and the talk of head coach Vance Joseph of getting fired are getting stronger. Going back, the Broncos are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss including going 0-6 ATS in their last six games following consecutive losses against the spread. Here, we play against teams that are averaging 4.5 or more rushing ypc, after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 62-32 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. 10* (132) Oakland Raiders |
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12-23-18 | Bears v. 49ers +5 | Top | 14-9 | Push | 0 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Bears have clinched a playoff berth thanks to a pair of home wins over the Rams and Packers. They finished 7-1 at home but they are only 3-3 on the road and while there was a blowout win at Buffalo, the other two victories were far from dominating as they were outgained in Detroit by 69 yards and won by just two points at Arizona. To their credit, all three road losses could have been wins but the makeup of this team shows that Chicago should not be laying a significant number on the road. The 49ers are just 4-10 on the season but continue to play hard and they are coming off a pair of impressive wins over Seattle and Denver. San Francisco is 0-7 on the road but it does have a winning record at home and can close the season with its first winning record at home since 2013. Quarterback Nick Mullens has been excellent since taking over as he has a QB Rating of 96 in his six games and he is 3-1 at home with the lone loss coming by just four points. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 82-45 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (126) San Francisco 49ers |
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12-23-18 | Jaguars v. Dolphins -3.5 | 17-7 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. The playoff picture is not looking too bright for Miami as it needs to win and its postseason hope is done if the Patriots beat the Bills, the Titans beat the Redskins, and the Colts beat the Giants. A miracle win against the Patriots was followed up by a blowout loss last week at Minnesota but Sunday presents a great opportunity in their final home game of the season. The Dolphins have covered six of their seven home games this season. Jacksonville put up a poor effort last week in its last home game against Washington and we should not see much more effort from the Jaguars with their last two games taking place on the road. The offense has been putrid as their 16.1 ppg is third worst in the league and Cody Kessler has not been the answer at quarterback. Jacksonville is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Here, we play on teams after two consecutive game where they committed no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This situation is 52-19 ATS (73.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons including a perfect 7-0 ATS this season. 9* (110) Miami Dolphins |
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12-23-18 | Giants +10.5 v. Colts | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Sunday presents the possibility of a huge letdown for the Colts. Indianapolis is coming off its two most impressive victories, shutting out Dallas 23-0 on Sunday to snap the Cowboys five-game winning streak after ending Houston's nine-game run the previous week with a 24-21 road win. Obviously the Colts need to keep winning to try and get into the postseason but it is a little overaggressive for them to be laying double-digits against a team that has played better on the road than it has at home. The Giants were shutout at home last week against the Titans and their No. 1 ranked scoring defense. New York is 3-4 on the road with the four losses coming by a combined 15 points and none by more than seven points. The offense was playing well prior to last week as the Giants had averaged 31.4 ppg in their previous five games. The Colts defense has been up and down and coming off a shutout means regression. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, team with a losing record in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (111) New York Giants |
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12-23-18 | Packers -2.5 v. Jets | 44-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. The Packers were officially eliminated from the playoffs last week as they lost in Chicago for their fourth defeat in their last five games. There is still motivation for Green Bay as it is 0-7 on the road and it will be trying to avoid its first winless season away from home since the 1950s. Aaron Rodgers proved this by making sure he was taking the field even though sitting out the final two games would be the smart move. An expected lost season is just what has happened for the Jets as they are now 4-10 even though they are encouraged by the play of Sam Darnold over the last two games. The problem is, that is where it ends as this roster is one of the worst in football, especially on the other side of the ball despite some claims that the defense is actually decent. The Jets have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, including No. 22 in total defense and No. 26 in scoring defense. They have allowed 29.2 ppg over their last five games. Here, we play on road teams after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, in December games. This situation is 46-17 ATS (73 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (117) Green Bay Packers |
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12-22-18 | Ravens v. Chargers -4 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. Because the Chargers are coming off a Thursday game and are at home while Baltimore is travelling on a short week, Los Angeles has a significant situational edge. The Chargers are coming off a last-second victory at Kansas City that pulled them into a tie with the Chiefs atop the AFC West. Kansas City holds the tiebreaker, so Los Angeles will have to win out and hope for the Chiefs to lose once to claim the top seed. The Chargers have won four straight games, the last three without running back Melvin Gordon and those games were all close and with Gordon back, the offense gets back another weapon. The Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. Baltimore has won four of its last five games which has coincided with quarterback Lamar Jackson taking over for Joe Flacco. However, Jackson has fumbled an NFL-high seven times since Week 11, losing three of those, and this Chargers defense is primed for takeaways. The Ravens might currently hold the final wild-card spot in the AFC, but that could change dramatically if they can't upset the Chargers. A Ravens victory gets them up to an 82 percent chance to make the playoffs, while a loss drops them to just 16 percent. The Ravens are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game while going 1-4 ATS against teams with a winning record. 10* (124) Los Angeles Chargers |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +6.5 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. Halfway through the season, it looked as though the Panthers were going to make some noise as they were 6-2 and trailed New Orleans by just one game. Then came a five-game losing streak and now Carolina is fighting for its playoff life. While things are looking bleak, the Panthers have not been playing bad as they have outgained each of their last four opponents with all of the losses coming by just one possession. The schedule has not been on their side either with four of the last five games coming on the road. The Saints have not exactly been tearing things up of late as they are averaging just 262 ypg over their last three games and have been outgained in two of those while outgaining the Buccaneers by only 19 yards last week. This is the third straight road game for New Orleans which is never an ideal situation and the Saints close out with two home games. The Saints have been favored by more than a field goal on the road four times and while they have covered three of those, those were all against teams out of playoff contention. Carolina is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 375 or more ypg and here, we play against favorites that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (332) Carolina Panthers |
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12-16-18 | Patriots v. Steelers +3 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Pittsburgh had won six straight games but it has lost its last three games and is just a half-game ahead of Baltimore in the AFC North. There are five seven-win teams in the AFC so winning out could be the possibility for making the playoffs and it starts against a nemesis. The Steelers are 0-5 in their past five games against the Patriots, including a 27-24 loss at Heinz Field last December that prevented Pittsburgh from earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. Pittsburgh is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 home games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. The Patriots are coming off the brutal loss against Miami and they are now a half-game behind Houston for the No. 2 seed and a first round bye. While this game means a lot for them as well, knowing they have the Bills and Jets at home to close the season helps. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 in the second half of the season off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (328) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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12-16-18 | Raiders v. Bengals -3 | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Cincinnati finds itself in a familiar spot as the season winds down with all playoff hopes nearly dashed. The Bengals are forced to win out to avoid a third straight losing season for the first time since they had six straight sub-.500 seasons from 1997 to 2002 and that resulted in the team hiring Marvin Lewis. This will probably result in the firing of Lewis but we should expect a big effort from the Bengals which are playing their final home game of the season. Oakland defeated Pittsburgh in a substantial upset last week and the celebrating was plentiful which puts the Raiders in a letdown spot and even more so traveling east to a non-playoff contender. Going back, Oakland is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after a win as a home underdog of seven or more points. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. 9* (310) Cincinnati Bengals |
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12-16-18 | Cowboys v. Colts -3 | Top | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. The Cowboys have turned their season around as a 1-3 stretch has been followed up by a five-game winning streak which has propelled Dallas into first place in the NFC East. They have a two-game lead but hit the road after a three-game homestand and the Cowboys are just 2-4 on the road compared to being 6-1 at home. The Colts bounced back for us last week as they defeated the Texans, snapping their nine-game winning streak. They are tied with Baltimore for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC but are currently out based on the tiebreaker making this a must win. While it could be considered a letdown spot, Indianapolis is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 home games off an upset win as a road underdog. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after two or more consecutive wins playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 36-13 ATS (73.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (314) Indianapolis Colts |
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12-15-18 | Texans -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 29-22 | Win | 100 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. As a situational handicapper for the most part, this one sets up very well and while this number does not look ideal, it is based on the talent gap and in this case, it is huge. Houston had its nine-game winning streak snapped at home last week against the Colts and now sits two games ahead of Indianapolis in the AFC South with a couple marginal tests remaining. While the Texans have had some close road games, five of the six came against teams still in the playoff hunt and the lone exception resulted in a 13-point win at Jacksonville. Houston is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing 400 or more total ypg in their last three games. The Jets snapped a six-game losing streak with a win in Buffalo last week thanks to three Bills turnovers. New York has been outgained in seven of its last eight games including differentials in its last four games of -252, -160, -123 and -120. The Jets are ranked No. 30 in offensive efficiency and that has been the big downfall as the defense has at least been average. It could be even worse this week as New York could be without its leading rusher and second leading receiver. The Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play on road favorites with a completion percentage of 60 percent or better, after allowing 7.0 or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (303) Houston Texans |
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12-13-18 | Chargers v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Chargers do look appealing in this spot based on this being one of the best opportunities to snap their nine-game losing streak against Kansas City. But, there is plenty of motivation on the Chiefs side as well as they can wrap up the division with a win and likely clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Kansas City is 6-0 at home and welcome the Chargers for their second meeting this season after winning in Los Angeles in the season opener. The last two games have been closer than expected but going back, the Chiefs have won the yardage battle in each of their last five games and by an average of 83.8 ypg. The one aspect where home field has made a huge difference is the defense as Kansas City allows 34.1 ppg on the road while giving up just 18.7 ppg at home. The Chargers have won three straight and nine of their last 10 games with the lone loss coming against Denver in a game they lost on a last second field goal. They are playing some of the best football in the NFL but this is a time of year where it has struggled and it is no coincidence. The Chargers are 3-8 in their last 11 games in December and they have lost four straight outright on the road outdoors. Injuries could play a big role here as well as Los Angeles will likely be without running back Melvin Gordon once again as he is doubtful and a game-time decision while Kansas City will be getting defensive back Eric Berry on the field for the first time this season. He we play on home favorites after having won three out of their last four games going up against an opponent, after having won eight or more out of their last 10 games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (302) Kansas City Chiefs |
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12-10-18 | Vikings +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. The Vikings are 2-3-1 on the road and while that looks unimpressive, the schedule has been brutal by playing three divisional leaders as well as the Packers and Eagles. Minnesota is coming off a 24-10 loss in New England last Sunday and being a high profile game, most will remember that and carry that recency bias into this week. Additionally, the Seahawks have won three straight games including a 27-point win over the 49ers last week. Impressive on the scoreboard but not impressive in the stats as Seattle was outgained by 121 total yards and was fortunate to win the turnover battle 3-0. While Seattle has had the better ground game this season overall, we could see a flip tonight with Minnesota possessing the better rush game. The Vikings have talked all week of wanting to run it more, and especially to get running back Dalvin Cook, who is averaging 4.2 ypc, more touches. And given that Seattle comes into the game still ranked tied for last in rushing yards allowed per carry at 5.1, it makes sense for the Vikings to try to establish the run. on the other side, the Seahawks are a run-first team, but the only win they have by more than three points over a top-15 run defense is the Cowboys and that was only due to winning the turnover battle 3-0 as they were outrushed 166-113. Seattle will have to go against a Minnesota defense that allows just 3.7 ypc, fifth in the NFL, and has not allowed a run all season of longer than 21 yards compared to every other team that has allowed at least one run of 28 yards. Seattle is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off a win by 21 points or more over a division rival while the Vikings are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (133) Minnesota Vikings |
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12-09-18 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-29 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. The Eagles made it two straight wins with their win over Washington on Monday night as they caught a break with Colt McCoy having to exit early with a broken leg. Philadelphia is just one game behind Dallas in the NFC East and this is a must won considering the Cowboys won the first meeting as a loss here would realistically put the Eagles three games back. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. Dallas has won four straight games starting with that win over the Eagles and culminating with a win over the Saints last Thursday. Dallas has the edge with time off from playing on a Thursday but in a divisional game, we will grab the value. The Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 40-11 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (129) Philadelphia Eagles |
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12-09-18 | Falcons v. Packers -3.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. The Packers are coming off a disaster of a game last week as they lost to the Cardinals as two-touchdown favorites and now it will take a miracle to make the playoffs. The loss led to the firing of head coach Mike McCarthy and teams tend to respond in a big way when these situations arise. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers will have more flexibility in the offense and that is when he tends to be his best when he is working on the fly. And he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder after having lost the last three meetings to Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Atlanta has dropped four straight games and the offense was unable to reach 20 points in any of those games. The Falcons are now 4-8 including 1-4 on the road. Here, we play on home favorites of seven points or less coming off straight up home loss as double-digit home favorites. This situation is 18-6 (75 percent) since 1980. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while going 0-5 ATS in its last five games against teams with a losing record. 9* (112) Green Bay Packers |
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12-09-18 | Colts +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. We played against the Colts last week and while we were confident in the Jaguars defense, we did not expect a shutout. Now Andrew Luck will be out to bounce back which he has done the majority of time in the past. He is an incredible 16-2 straight up and ATS when coming off a loss if his team is .333 or better. The Colts are not in must win mode but they are close as a loss here will keep them at least a game out of the second Wild Card spot. Houston has won nine straight games and while we played against the Texans last week and lost, the dominations are still not there as they were outgained by the Browns with a 4-0 turnover advantage being the difference. Despite being as hot as they are, we feel the Texans are overvalued here as a field goal should be the line in this divisional matchup. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off a loss by seven points or less to a division rival. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983. 9* (107) Indianapolis Colts |
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12-06-18 | Jaguars v. Titans -4.5 | Top | 9-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Tennessee snapped a two-game slide with a come-from-behind win over the Jets last Sunday as the Titans scored the game winning touchdown with 36 seconds left. They outgained the Jets by 123 total yards and the defense did its job once again as they did not allow and offensive touchdown. Obviously, the Jets offense is garbage but the same can be said about the opponent tonight as well. Tennessee is ranked No. 10 and No. 6 in total defense and scoring defense respectively and will square off against another backup quarterback. Jacksonville is coming off a win over the Colts but not too much can be read into that as it was outgained overall and was bailed out by some questionable Indianapolis moves by taking points off the board and eventually getting stopped on fourth down and not kicking a field goal on another fourth down which resulted in a sack and a turnover on downs. The Jaguars defense played at a high level after a stretch of poor showing and we suspect a reversal to that tonight as they hit the road where they are 1-4. The Jaguars are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game while the Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (102) Tennessee Titans |
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12-03-18 | Redskins +6 v. Eagles | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. The Eagles lost five of seven games culminating in a 48-7 loss at New Orleans two weeks ago. Things appeared bleak last week as the Eagles faced deficits of 12-0 and 19-3 but wound up rallying for a 25-22 win over the Giants. This may seem like the turning point for Philadelphia but it has not gotten there yet as there are issues on both sides. Washington lost quarterback Alex Smith to a gruesome leg injury and Colt McCoy got thrust into the starting lineup against the Cowboys on a short week. Now, he is coming off a long week after having played on Thanksgiving and while he definitely showed rust 11 days ago, he is in a much better spot now going from facing the No. 5 ranked defense to now facing the No. 24 ranked defense. Washington is 17-2 ATS in its last 19 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 6.0 or more yppl while the Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams allowing 6.0 or more yppl. Additionally, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season coming off a win by three points or less over a division rival, with a winning percentage between .450 and .550. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (379) Washington Redskins |
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12-02-18 | Colts v. Jaguars +5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
The Jaguars are reeling with seven straight losses while the Colts are making a move with five straight wins. This is a spot where Jacksonville will step up as they turn to Cody Kessler at quarterback who is starting for the benched Blake Bortles and also breaks in new offensive coordinator Scott Milanovich. Things can only go up. The Colts are coming off three straight home game which puts them in a tough spot where they are just 2-3 on the road and are favored by more here than they were at home three games back and they were actually outgained by the Jaguars in that game. Indianapolis is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after gaining 400 or more total yards in its previous game while the Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Here, we play on home teams revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 83-43 ATS (65.9 percent) since 1983. 9* (352) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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12-02-18 | Panthers -3 v. Bucs | 17-24 | Loss | -112 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
The Panthers are entering must win mode following their third consecutive loss. They were beaten badly by the Steelers following a three-game winning streak and the last two losses were by a combined four points so both were winnable. Four of the five losses have been by just one possession. Carolina should have a big edge in the running game as it averages 5.2 ypc while the Buccaneers allow 4.7 ypc. Tampa Bay snapped a four-game losing streak with a decisive win over San Francisco and while they have been pretty solid at home with a 3-2 record, the Buccaneers are catching Carolina at the wrong time. Tampa Bay is 8-23 ATS in its last 31 home games against teams allowing a completion percentage of 64 percent or worse while the Panthers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss. Here, we play on road teams after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, in December games. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (355) Carolina Panthers |
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12-02-18 | Browns +6 v. Texans | 13-29 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
Houston set a franchise record with its eighth consecutive win on Monday over Tennessee. The Texans are in first place in the AFC South and while the winning streak has been impressive, the win over the Titans was just the third one by more than one possession. Cleveland has won two straight games for the first time in over four years and a win here gets the Browns right in the thick of the Wild Card race as they are currently just a game and a half out of the second spot. The record could be even better as they have a tie and three losses by three points or less. Houston is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game while the Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season averaging between 5.9-6.7 passing ypa going up against teams allowing between 5.9-6.7 passing ypa, after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game. This situation is 74-38 ATS (66.1 percent) since 1983. 9* (359) Cleveland Browns |
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12-02-18 | Broncos v. Bengals +5.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Game of the Week. The early line on this was Cincinnati -2.5 prior to last Sunday and there is no way Andy Dalton is worth 7.5 points so the value is squarely on the Bengals here. Jeff Driskel was decent last week after coming in and with a full week of preparation and having A.L. Green back, he is not a significant downgrade. The Broncos are coming off consecutive impressive wins over the Chargers and Steelers but what is not shown in the scores is that they were outgained by 154 and 219 total yards respectively. The only other road win for Denver was at 2-9 Arizona. Denver is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in five straight games while the Bengals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a losing team. This situation is 68-27 ATS (71.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (366) Cincinnati Bengals |
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11-29-18 | Saints v. Cowboys +8 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. The Saints are humming along with 10 straight wins and nine straight covers so the fact they are over a touchdown favorite here is no surprise. Things were looking bleak for Dallas after a home loss against Tennessee but it has won and covered three straight games since then and this is the perfect primetime matchup for the Cowboys to show they are still relevant. The New Orleans offense continues to light it up but the Cowboys defense is soaring and has allowed the third-fewest points (213), fourth-fewest rushing yards (1,030), fifth-fewest first downs (207) and seventh-fewest total yards (3,642). The Cowboys offense has improved drastically since receiver Amari Cooper joined the team. That was made clear by his performance last week against the Redskins as he had 180 yards, including touchdown catches of 40 and 90 yards. His presence is now big to keep the balance going. Ezekiel Elliott overtook Todd Gurley for NFL lead last week (1,074 yards rushing to 1,043). He has 18 100-yard games since joining league in 2016 and no other player has more than 12. He's averaging 161 scrimmage yards with four TDs in past four games and while the Saints rushing defense is the best in the league, a big reason for that is they have seen the fewest rushes against them. Here, we play against road favorites that are outrushing their opponents by 40 or more ypg, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 106-63 (62.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (302) Dallas Cowboys |
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11-26-18 | Titans +4 v. Texans | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. Houston is the hottest team in the AFC with seven consecutive wins and it returns home following a pair of two-point road victories. The Texans have been far from dominating however as four of those wins came by three points or less and the other three came against Buffalo, Jacksonville and Miami which all have losing records. Houston is now 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win by three points or less while going 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Tennessee is 8-2 ATS in its 10 divisional games with Marcus Mariota when coming off a loss. Before the Titans were obliterated at Indianapolis last week, they defeated Dallas by 14 and New England by 24. In those two games, Mariota threw four touchdown passes, ran for another and didn't suffer an interception so the fact he is playing tonight is important. Until last week, the Titans had not given up more than 27 points in any game and that 27 came in Week One in Miami. This defense is legit. Two weeks ago, the Titans used several blitz packages to take advantage of the Patriots offensive line and they will do the same against Houston. The Texans offensive line is much worse as the unit is ranked No. 24 in the league. Going back, the Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (273) Tennessee Titans |
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11-25-18 | Browns v. Bengals +1 | 35-20 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. As bad as the Bengals run has been, they are right there in the playoff picture which the Wild Card race is still wide open. Cincinnati, among five teams sitting at 5-5 in the AFC, has won seven consecutive games over Cleveland. And it hasn't been much of a rivalry during that span as the Bengals have won each game by an average margin of more than 21 points and the closest game in that span was a 23-10 victory in December 2016. Cleveland is still in the hunt although it is unlikely at 3-6-1 and the Browns may have lost some momentum from their win over Atlanta because of their bye week. Cleveland is 0-4 on the road and going back, the Browns are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 road games. 9* (260) Cincinnati Bengals |
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11-25-18 | 49ers v. Bucs -1.5 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Since beating the Eagles on 9/24, Tampa Bay has gone 1-7 with the only win coming in overtime against Cleveland. However, the Buccaneers have won the yardage battle in six of those eight games as turnover and special teams have been a difference. The 49ers have found new life with Nick Mullens at quarterback but now he is making his first career road start and while Tampa Bay is not the most hostile of environments, it is on the road nonetheless. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This situation is 60-27 ATS (69 percent) since 1983. 10* (256) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS as part of our NFL Sunday Trifecta. Seattle snapped a two-game slide with a win over Green Bay last Thursday and is now just a game out of the second Wild Card spot in the NFC. The Seahawks are a respectable 3-3 on the road but while they are 3-1 against non-playoff teams, they lost both games against the Rama and Bears, two teams going into the postseason. Carolina is coming off another frustrating loss on the road where they have just one victory and that took a three-touchdown fourth quarter to accomplish. Carolina is 5-0 at home and falls into a great situation where we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off two or more consecutive overs, averaging 23-27 ppg going up against teams allowing 23-27 ppg. This situation is 36-14 ATS (72 percent) since 1983. 10* (264) Carolina Panthers |
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11-22-18 | Falcons +13.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Thanksgiving Day Enforcer. Atlanta has dropped two straight games to fall to 4-6 in the season and are now a full five games behind New Orleans in the NFC South. While winning the division is almost out of the question at this point, the Falcons are still well alive in the Wild Card race as they trail Carolina by just two games but time is running out. We are more concerned with the spread here however as Atlanta is getting close to a full touchdown more than the Eagles got last week and there is not much difference between the Falcons and Eagles. New Orleans has won nine straight games while covering its last eight and the Saints are laying their biggest number of the season as the looks have been getting killed by New Orleans backers. The offense is humming along as the Saints are now averaging 37.8 ppg which leads the league but this is not the time to be laying this big of a number, especially against an Atlanta offense that can keep up. The Saints are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a double-digit win going up against an opponent off consecutive losses while going 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites off a non-divisional game and playing a divisional opponent playing with revenge. Additionally, we play against favorites outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (109) Atlanta Falcons |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions +4.5 | 23-16 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our Thanksgiving Day Crusher. We played on and won with Detroit on Sunday in a must win game against Carolina and while the outright win was fortunate, the cover was never in doubt and now the Lions are catching the same number in another must win situation. They are three games behind Chicago in the NFC North and a loss will all but eliminate them from playoff contention while a victory pulls them into within a game of the second Wild Card spot in the NFC. As mentioned last week, this is the first time is two years nearly to the day that Detroit has played back-to-back home games, the only team in the NFL to go without this over this amount of time. The Bears defeated Minnesota on Sunday night to make it four straight wins and covers but now it plays on the short week with travel involved. Chicago improved to 51 at home but it is just 2-2 on the highway and going back, it is 10-22 ATS in its last 32 games off a win by seven points or less over a division rival while going 7-24 ATS in its last 31 games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. Additionally, Detroit falls into a great situation where we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 80-43 ATS (65 percent) since 1983. 9* (106) Detroit Lions |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Rams | Top | 51-54 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. This game was moved from Mexico City to Los Angeles and while that benefits the Rams faithful, it helps Kansas City more than anything based on a betting perspective. The Rams were -3 on the neutral field and now are just a half-point higher after the game being moved to their home field and the number has nor moved at some places. While Los Angeles opened the season with three straight covers, it has gone 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as the defense has let opposing teams hang around and that is not an ideal situation for tonight. The Rams have allowed 31 or more points in four of their last seven games and an average of 27.9 ppg over that stretch after giving up just 12 ppg in their first three games. The Chiefs defense has been scrutinized all year but it has improved as the season has progressed and while this will be its biggest test it has faced, trending in the right direction is key. The Rams are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games while Kansas City has covered six straight road games following two or more consecutive wins. Additionally, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have a completion percentage of 60 percent or better, after gaining 6.75 or more passing ypa in four straight games. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (473) Kansas City Chiefs |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +9.5 v. Saints | 7-48 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES as part of our NFL Sunday Afternoon Trifecta. The bad news is that Philadelphia is 4-5 but the good news is that it trails first place Washington by just two games with two games still remaining against the Redskins. The task at hand this week is a challenge but we are not concerned about the outright win, just the fact the Eagles are getting over a touchdown. The Saints have been cruising along with eight straight wins since losing their season opener against the Buccaneers. While they have been winning most of their games big, they have actually been outgained in four of their nine games and their average yardage differential is not much higher than that of the Eagles. The recent run and the up and down nature of Philadelphia is playing a major role in this number that is overinflated. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams that are +/- 0.4 yppl, after outgaining their last opponent by 150 or more total yards. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 9* (459) Philadelphia Eagles |
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11-18-18 | Raiders +6 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Game of the Week. Two of the worst teams in the NFL square off in Arizona and these teams should be a pickem on a neutral field which gives us a ton of value on the Raiders. Oakland has dropped five straight games and while the offense has been moving the ball, it has not been putting up points as the Raiders have scored a total of 22 points in four of those games. Arizona does possess an underrated defense but it is the other side of the ball where Oakland has a big edge. The Cardinals are second to last in the NFL in offensive efficiency and they are also second to last in scoring offense, averaging just 13.8 ppg. Arizona has outgained only one opponent all season and that was by just 54 yards in an 18-15 win over San Francisco. They are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games but all were as underdogs and they are now favored for just the second time all season and by the largest amount. Here, we play on teams after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (469) Oakland Raiders |
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11-18-18 | Panthers v. Lions +4.5 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS as part of our NFL Sunday Afternoon Trifecta. The Detroit playoff hopes are dwindling quickly and this is the start of a very important and daunting stretch of three games against the Panthers, Bears and Rams. The good news is that they are all at home and you have to go all the way back to November of 2016 for the last time Detroit has had back-to-back games at home so this could be the start of something good. The Panthers are coming off that blowout loss at Pittsburgh to fall to 1-3 on the road, the lone victory needing a 21-point, fourth quarter comeback against the Eagles. The offense has been solid but the defense has a lot of holes as it is ranked No. 24 in defensive efficiency, and Detroit, which is coming off three games against defenses ranked No. 2, No. 7 and No. 10, can take advantage. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a loss by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. This situation is 54-23 ATS (70.1 percent) since 1983. 9* (452) Detroit Lions |
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11-18-18 | Titans v. Colts -1 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS as part of our NFL Sunday Afternoon Trifecta. The Colts are starting to hit their stride with three straight wins, albeit against weak opponents, following a four-game losing streak. Despite a 4-5 record, Indianapolis has outgained all but three opponents and this is a much needed win to keep pace with the Texans in the AFC South. This is the second of three straight home games and this is where the Colts need to make their move and we are getting a short price in doing so. The Titans are coming off an upset win over New England but that was at home where they are 3-1 and they are just 2-3 on the highway although one of those losses came in London. While Tennessee leads the league in scoring defense, it is just No. 12 in defensive efficiency while the offense checks in at No. 24. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1983. 9* (462) Indianapolis Colts |
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11-15-18 | Packers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. This line opened at 2.5 and stayed there until last night but now it has climbed to 3 at most places which is what we were hoping for on the Green Bay side. Recent series history is swaying the public onto Seattle as the home team has won seven straight meetings and coupled with the Packers 0-4 record on the road, this is going to be a contrarian play. While the quarterbacks are the story here, this one could come down to the running game. Seattle leads the NFL in rushing offense with 152.2 ypg but Green Bay leads the league with 5.2 ypc so anyone that says the Seahawks have the edge there is mistaken. The total yardage number is inflated because Seattle is second in the league in rushing attempts and breaking down the offensive lines shows Green Bay with a massive edge as it is No. 4 in the Adjusted Line Yards formula with Seattle coming in at No. 15. Taking that a step further shows the Seahawks are third to last in the league in pass protection. The home field advantage for the Seahawks has declined as they are just 5-6 since the start of last season and they have been outgained in all three home games this season. Here, we play against home favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (307) Green Bay Packers |
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11-11-18 | Dolphins v. Packers -10 | Top | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Game of the Week. Green Bay is coming off a brutal two-game roadtrip where it lost to the Rams and Patriots to fall to 3-4-1 on the season but it is just a game and a half back in the NFC North. This is a must win for the Packers however as they have to venture out on the road in two more tough environments after this in Seattle and Minnesota. This game sets up similar to the one against the Bills as Green Bay was coming of a bad road loss against Washington and bounced back as expected. Miami is not as bad as the Bills many will argue but the Dolphins are not far off. They have been outgained in seven of their last eight games including two wins against the Jets where they won the yardage battle by 105 and 107 yards. Turnovers have been the difference that has kept them above water. Now Miami heads to Green Bay where temperatures will be in the 20s at gametime. Brock Osweiler will be making his fifth start for the Dolphins and while he is 2-2, the offense has gotten worse moving forward especially last week where the only touchdown came on an interception return. Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg while going 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after being outgained by 100 or more total yards last game. Additionally, Miami is 1-15 ATS in its last 16 games after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. 10* (262) Green Bay Packers |
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11-11-18 | Falcons v. Browns +6.5 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 48 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Cleveland has been outmatched recently as it has lost four straight games with three of those coming against the Chargers, which have won five straight, the Steelers, which have won five straight and the Chiefs, which are 8-1. Add in another game against the Steelers and one against the Saints, and it comes as no surprise that the Browns have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. The defense has not performed well over this stretch and while the offense has not been far behind, this is a good chance for a breakout game like we saw earlier in the season. We played against the Falcons last week and they were able to take care of Washington without much of a problem. The play of the offensive line was a huge part of the reason that the Falcons were able to hang 38 points on a quality Washington defense last week. They will be facing another tough test this week as Cleveland is tied for the 11th-best adjusted sack rate per Pro Football Outsiders with 22 sacks in total. As for line value, we are certainly getting it here as this line is saying that Atlanta is just two points worse than Kansas City and that is laughable. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 9* (254) Cleveland Browns |
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11-11-18 | Saints v. Bengals +6 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Saints are coming off a monster win last week against the Rams making a case from them now being the team to beat in the NFC. A big win at home like that can certainly produce a letdown and on top of that, they head home after this to face the Eagles next week and then play the Falcons four days later on Thanksgiving night. Despite a 7-1 record, New Orleans has not been dominating as it has outgained opponents just by 14.2 ypg. But that is not going to stop the public from loading up on the Saints especially with a Cincinnati team that the public thinks it is in disarray. The Bengals blew a 21-point lead against Tampa Bay and needed a last second field goal to pull out the win. They will be without A.J. Green for a couple games while the defense is on pace to break NFL records for yardage allowed so there is no way Cincinnati can keep up right. That is why they play the game and this is a big game for the Bengals as they are now a game behind the Steelers and they have a pair of divisional games on deck. The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record. Additionally, we play against road teams off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation s 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (256) Cincinnati Bengals |
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11-08-18 | Panthers +4 v. Steelers | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Thursday Game of the Month. The Steelers have won four straight games and are going to be a very popular public play at home on Thursday. This line was hit hard by Carolina money early and has come down but it is still above the key number for a team that is arguably better at this point. This could be considered a tough spot for the Steelers as they are coming off three straight divisional games. While the popular thinking is that the Steelers are a dominant team at home, they are just 2-7 over their last nine games at Heinz Field. Carolina has won three straight and five of its last six games with the lone loss coming at Washington in a game it should have won as it outgained the Redskins but lost the turnover battle 3-0. The Panthers are ranked No. 17 in total offense but a truer indication is that they are No. 5 in offensive efficiency which is a big factor in this matchup as the Steelers are ranked No. 21 in defensive efficiency. Taking both sides into account, Carolina is No. 3 in total efficiency while Pittsburgh is No. 11 and that is a very significant differential. Carolina is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl in their previous game. The Panthers fall into a situation where we play against favorites that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up against a team allowing between 335 to 370 ypg, after outgaining their opponent by 100 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (107) Carolina Panthers |
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11-05-18 | Titans +5.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Monday Night Enforcer. Both the AFC South and NFC East divisions are wide open so a win for either side would be huge. The Titans have lost three straight games but two of those could have been won as they were by a point apiece while the other was a shutout loss at home in horrendous weather. Tennessee is 1-3 away from home but those three losses have come by a combined nine points. Tennessee is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after one or more consecutive losses. The Cowboys are coming off a loss in Washington prior to its bye week and on the season, the home team is 7-0 in Dallas games which is a big reason this line is inflated. While the big news out of Dallas was the acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper, there was bigger news that nobody has talked about and that was it fired offensive line coach Paul Alexander and assistant offensive line coach Marc Colombo has been promoted to Alexander's position. The Cowboys also hired longtime NFL offensive line coach Hudson Houck as an advisor. this is not a good thing midway through the season. This offensive line has been pretty much below average all season and while Ezekiel Elliott is having a fine season, Dak Prescott has been sacked 23 times which is tied for 13th most in the league but that is through just seven games. The Cowboys 10.04 percent sack rate is fourth worst in the NFL. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This situation is 58-26 ATS (69 percent) since 1983. 10* (473) Tennessee Titans |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints +2.5 | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Sunday Rams/Saints Blockbuster. The game of the day takes place in New Orleans as the 6-1 Saints host the 8-0 Rams with the winner taking charge of first place in the NFC. Both teams are playing at a peak level but we give a solid edge to New Orleans playing at home following two quality road victories over Baltimore and Minnesota following its bye week. This marks the first home game in a month and the Saints have typically stepped up in these spots as they are 24-5 ATS in their last 29 home games against team with a winning road record. Based on power rankings, the Rams are one-point better on a neutral field which makes this line off as much as five points. Los Angeles is clearly the top team in the league right now but it has proved to be beating after starting the season with three straight blowout wins. The Rams played three straight road games and then had a tough games with the Packers last week so they are in a vulnerable spot. They are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite while going 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg. 9* (470) New Orleans Saints |
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11-04-18 | Bucs +6.5 v. Panthers | 28-42 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Carolina is coming off a big win last week as it defeated Baltimore as a home underdog to keep pace with New Orleans in the NFC South. The Panthers improved to 4-0 at home but they are overpriced as most of their wins could have gone either way. The offense has been efficient but the defense is vastly overrated as the Panthers are ranked No. 17 in defensive efficiency. Carolina is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after two straight games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Tampa Bay is just 3-4 but it has played the third toughest schedule in the NFL and the Buccaneers are 2-1 against teams ranked within the top ten. Three of the four losses have come by a combined 11 points and the fact Ryan Fitzpatrick is start is a good thing. Tampa Bay is 12-3 ATS in its 15 road games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. Additionally, the Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against team with a winning record while the Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) since 1983. 9* (457) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens -2 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our AFC Game of the Year. Baltimore has bottomed out after a 3-1 start as it has lost three of its last four games to move to 4-4 and trails Pittsburgh by a game and a half in the AFC North. Three of the losses have come by a combined five points so the Ravens are better than the record shows and their poor game last week against the Panthers can be attributed to a possible lookahead to this week. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS under John Harbaugh after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game. The Steelers are trending the other way as they have won three straight after a 1-2-1 start. These recent runs on both sides are keeping this number lower than it should be as lines under three are available across the industry. Pittsburgh is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 road games after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. Additionally, the Steelers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win while the Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in four or five out of their last six games. This situation is 356-253 ATS (58.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (456) Baltimore Ravens |
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11-04-18 | Falcons v. Redskins -1 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Falcons are coming off a much needed bye week but this team is still a mess defensively. Injuries have played a big role and on the season, Atlanta is ranked second to last in the NFL in defensive efficiency and it is one of only three teams allowing 30 or more ppg on the season. While the Falcons have won two straight games, they were outgained in both of those and they have had the luxury of playing five of their last six games at home. Atlanta is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. The Redskins are in first place in the NFC East by a game and a half over the Eagles and two games over the Cowboys. Unlike Atlanta, the defense is leading the way as Washington is ranked No. 5 in scoring defense and has allowed 17 points or less in four of its last five games. Washington is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Here, we play on home favorites that are outrushing opponents by 40 or more ypg going up against a team that is +/- 30 in rushing ypg differential, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 103-57 AT (64.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (462) Washington Redskins |
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11-01-18 | Raiders v. 49ers -2.5 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. While there have been some solid Thursday matchups through the first half of the season, this is not one of those but we can take advantage of a soft line where San Francisco has significant advantages. The 49ers have lost six straight games but four of those came against quality opponents and while the other two were against Arizona, last week was just by three points and the other came despite winning the yardage battle by 227 total yards. The big issue for the 49ers is at quarterback as C.J. Beathard is questionable with a wrist injury which means Nick Mullens could be making his maiden NFL start but whoever starts, it should not matter. Headed into Week Nine, the San Francisco offense ranks 22nd in the NFL, and while that number does not really strike fear into the opponent, what the group can do on the ground should. The 49ers are led by running back Matt Breida who has 487 rushing yards and two touchdowns along with a 5.8 ypc average and overall, they are ranked sixth in rushing offense with 133.6 ypg. The Raiders defense is ranked deal last against the rush and it does not stop there as they have given up seven passing plays more than 40 yards, tied for the fourth-most in the league. This is partly due to amassing only seven sacks, fewest in the league. The 49ers fall into a phenomenal rushing situation as we play against road teams averaging between 70-95 rushing ypg going up against a team allowing between 95-125 rushing ypg, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in two straight games. This situation is 46-17 ATS (73 percent) since 1983 including a perfect 10-0 ATS the last five years. 10* (308) San Francisco 49ers |
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10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills +14.5 | Top | 25-6 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Monday Night Enforcer. There is only one way to play this game as it is rare to get a home underdog at this number, especially in a divisional game but it is the Patriots and despite the pointspread, the public is all over them. New England has received 71 percent of the bets at offshore books which is tied for the most one-sided action in Week Eight with the Bengals and unfortunately, we all saw how that turned out. Over the last 10 years, there have been just 17 double-digit divisional home underdogs and those games have resulted with the home team taking the money in 13 of those games. This includes a 4-1 ATS mark on Monday nights with one of those wins coming last season as the Patriots were in a pretty similar spot as they were riding an eight-game winning streak and rolled into Miami as a double-digit favorite only to lose outright by a touchdown. The other two wins were the Rams in 2013 in a five-point loss to Seattle as 13-point underdogs and the Raiders in a four-point loss to San Diego as 10.5-point underdogs. New England has won four straight games after a 1-2 start and the offense has been on a roll, scoring 38 points three times and 43 points the other. Buffalo is down to its third quarterback this week as Derek Anderson will be making his second start but this will be his first one at home and his first one with more than three days to prepare so he should be better off than he was last week. In addition to the divisional home underdog situation, Buffalo falls into another where we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points after a loss by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (276) Buffalo Bills |
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10-28-18 | Packers +9.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFC Game of the Year. Green Bay heads west following its bye week as it prepares to take on the meat of its schedule. The Packers, namely Aaron Rodgers, will be playing the respect card on Sunday as this line is out of control even if it is against the best team in the NFL at this point. Rodgers has never been an underdog by this many points and in his career, he has been an underdog of six or more points four times and he is a perfect 4-0 ATS. He has a healthy receiving corps this week Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb were back practicing after missing the last game while Davante Adams should be back to 10 percent. Green Bay has gone 10-4-1 ATS when coming off a bye under head coach Mike McCarthy. The Rams are coming off their seventh straight win to open the season including the last three all coming on the road. They snapped a three-game ATS skid with the rout over the 49ers last week, the same 49ers team that nearly pulled off the upset two weeks ago in Green Bay and that is playing into this line. The Los Angeles offense is humming but the defense will again have its hands full on the interior where Rodgers could have a field day in the middle of the field. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a completion percentage of 60 percent or better, after gaining 7.0 or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 36-15 ATS (70.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (271) Green Bay Packers |
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10-28-18 | Colts v. Raiders +3 | 42-28 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Raiders are making headlines for all the wrong reasons, namely that David Carr has lost the locker room, but many players have stepped out this week to quell those rumors and if there is a time a team comes together, this is it. The Raiders are 1-5 on the season and coming off a bye week so they do have a huge advantage from that standpoint as it was a perfect time to regroup. The schedule has not been in their favor as four of the first six games have come away from home and one of the two home games came against the 7-0 Rams. The Raiders are 5-1 ATS when coming off a bye week since the start of the 2012 season. The Colts picked up their second win of the season last week against the Bills which snapped a four-game slide but they hit the road once again where they have dropped three in a row. Indianapolis looked great on offense last week but going back, the Colts are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The defense was bailed out last week as they faced the Bills and Derek Anderson but the defense is still ranked No. 21 overall and No. 24 in points allowed. Here, we play on team after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games going up against an opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (268) Oakland Raiders |
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10-28-18 | Bucs v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Bengals look to right the ship after suffering a pair of one-sided losses in their last two games. The lost to Pittsburgh by a touchdown but they were outgained by 206 yards and last week, they were torched by Kansas City by 35 points while getting outgained by 312 yards. A 4-1 start has been negated the last two weeks and this is a big game to get to 5-3 instead of 4-4 heading into their bye week. The Bengals can refocus on beating a handful of mediocre teams in the next month to rebuild their confidence especially on the defense where Cincinnati is on pace to allow 440 points, the most in 30 years. Tampa Bay is coming off an overtime win over Cleveland last week to improve to 3-3 and it hits the road where the defense has been atrocious as it has allowed an average of more than 40 ppg over the teams three 2018 road games. And they are banged up as the Buccaneers will be without two starting defensive linemen, tackle Gerald McCoy and end Vinny Curry, for a second straight game. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. This situation is 37-14 ATS (72.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (264) Cincinnati Bengals |
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10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars +3.5 | 24-18 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a paly on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Sunday Early Start From London. Both Philadelphia and Jacksonville are mired in some poor runs right now as the Eagles have lost three of their last four games while the Jaguars have dropped three straight games. While neither come into London with positive momentum, it is Philadelphia that is worse off at this point after blowing a 17-0 fourth quarter lead last week at home against Carolina. The Super Bowl hangover has hit the Eagles harder than expected yet they continue to be overpriced. The Jaguars are playing in London for the sixth time and that is a big advantage as they are now accustomed to this lengthy trip and know how to prepare for it. They have won their last three trips here including a blowout win over Baltimore last season. The defense will have to step up with their banged up secondary but it is the offense that really needs to get going and Blake Bortles got his wake up call last week after getting benched against the Texans. Here, we play on teams after scoring nine points or less in two straight games. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons including going 15-3 ATS since the start of 2014. Additionally, Jacksonville has covered four of its last five games coming off a double-digit loss at home. 9* (252) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans -7 | Top | 23-42 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Here we have two teams heading in opposite directions as Houston, after a 0-3 start, has won four straight games to take over the lead in the AFC South while the Dolphins have dropped three of their last four games after a 2-0 start. This is a number larger than we normally prefer to lay but it has not gone south of a touchdown so there is no value loss and laying over a touchdown is validated in this situation. The Texans are where they were expected to be before the season started and even that 0-3 start is not that bad on paper as one loss came at New England by a touchdown while the other two losses were against the Titans and Giants by a combined eight points and they won the yardage battle in both games by a combined 202 total yards. Houston is ranked No. 14 in total defense but it is ranked No. 5 in the more important defensive efficiency category according to Football Outsiders and it has picked it up over the last three games, allowing just 12 ppg. The Texans have not been dominant at home as they have failed to cover their last five games at NRG Stadium, but they welcome the perfect opponent. Miami is a mess right now as not only is it without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, two of the top three receivers were lost last week as Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills, who are tied for the lead in touchdowns with four apiece, both suffered injuries. Brock Osweiler has not looked bad over the last two games but he will be making his first road start and any talk of the revenge narrative because of Houston trading him can be tossed out the window. Going back, Miami is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games following a loss, losing those games by an average of 15.6 ppg. 10* (104) Houston Texans |
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10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Monday Night Game of the Month. The Giants have had extra time to prepare for this Monday night game as they played last Thursday and were hammered by the Eagles by 21 points. That extra time means little as New York is going nowhere fast and has been stuck in neutral all season. It is three games behind the Redskins in the NFC East and this could very well be the last stand for Eli Manning, who is putting up decent numbers but they are not translating into wins. The Giants need to give Manning time to throw, and he might have it against Atlanta, which has not had much of a pass rush this season. Only four teams have fewer than the 10 sacks the Falcons have recorded this season. But New York can help add to that number as the Giants continue to make changes along what has been a porous offensive line for the past two seasons, benching disappointing right guard Patrick Omameh, in favor of backup interior lineman Spencer Pulley. While the Falcons sack numbers are low, the Giants have just seven and that is tied with the Raiders for fewest in the league. New York is ranked No. 27 in defensive efficiency and faces a potent offense where Matt Ryan has been on fire of late, throwing for 1,433 yards, 12 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last four games. This can be considered a must win for Atlanta heading into its bye week as a couple of late blown leads could come back to haunt them, but the Falcons are a couple plays from being 4-2 or even 5-1. And they have won two of three inside the NFC South, so they still control their own destiny. The Falcons have played a relatively tough schedule as they have faced only one team ranked outside the top 16 and that resulted in a win over Tampa Bay last week. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (476) Atlanta Falcons |