Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-23-17 | Redskins +5 v. Eagles | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our Monday Primetime play. Philadelphia enters Monday night riding a four-game winning streak and has become the toast of the NFL with a 5-1 record. The Eagles are the favorites to win the NFC at +425 but these lofty expectations have now taken value away as they are overpriced in this divisional game. Typically, we plan for a three-point number in a divisional game when teams are not too far off from each other and that is the case here. Philadelphia is 2-0 at home but it nearly lost to the Giants while getting outgained by 61 yards and took care of Arizona as it scored 21 first quarter points. The Eagles won the first meeting back on opening day by 13 points, but the game was closer than that throughout as they scored on a fumble recovery in the final two minutes to seal it. Washington is 3-2 and this is a game it needs to win to keep pace in the NFC East. A loss would put the Redskins 2.5 games behind Philadelphia and it would essentially be 3.5 games because of the head-to-head sweep. The Washington offense has been consistent which was a concern coming in with a new receiving corps as the Redskins are ranked No. 7 overall. Their worst game was the opener, but they can be given a mulligan for that based on it being the first game. Washington finished No. 28 in total defense in 2015 and 2016 and is up to No. 12 this season which is a significant turnaround. Washington has been a solid team away from home as going back to last season, it has covered 10 of its last 13 road games including a 4-1 ATS record against winning home teams. 10* (477) Washington Redskins |
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10-22-17 | Falcons +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Primetime play. We often talk about revenge and how it can come into play in certain spots. Typically, it is a situation that is secondary to another positive situation but in this case, it is the main ingredient. No need to go into details about the revenge but the Falcons have had this one on their calendars since the schedule came out in April. Shying away from road revenge is usually recommended but not here as Atlanta will go all out and it certainly has what it takes to win this one. The Falcons are coming off a pair of home losses against Buffalo and Miami and those are two games they no doubt should have won as they won the yardage battle in both games but were -3 in net turnovers. Overall, it has been a lethargic start to the season as games against the Bears and Lions could have resulted in losses as well but if there is a game to jumpstart the season, this is it. The Patriots are not looking good right now. We thought they may have turned a corner and backed them last week, but they failed to cover and were close to losing to the Jets and this team is not right. Whether it is age on offense or lack of chemistry on defense, this team is vulnerable to anyone right now as they have been outgained in four straight games. The Falcons can carve up this defense which makes this a game that can go either way, so a field goal finish gets the win if you can get the hook on the three. New England has failed to cover all three games at home this season while the Falcons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. 10* (475) Atlanta Falcons |
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10-22-17 | Broncos +1 v. Chargers | Top | 0-21 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Broncos are coming off an ugly loss last Sunday night as they fell by 13 points as a 13.5-point favorite and it was an ugly game not because they played poor football but because they lost too many intangibles. Denver lost the turnover battle 3-0, missed a pair of field goals and were bad in the redzone. The Broncos outgained the Giants 412-266 so they clearly dominated but these things can happen in football and the good thing for us is that the reaction is to the score and not what happened so we get line value which is the case here. Denver has outgained all five opponents as the loss at Buffalo was another game it could have won if not for losing the intangibles. After a 0-4 start, the Chargers have won two straight games and five of their six games overall have been decided by five points or less. That seems to point toward another close game here, considering the Broncos won the first meeting at home by just three points, but looking at the complete body of work, the Broncos are the superior team on both sides of the ball. As is the case with Chargers home games, the Denver fans will dominate the stadium as this Los Angeles team has the worst home field edge in the NFL. This is a revenge game for the Chargers but Denver has won seven of the last eight meetings so there has been a lot of revenge in the past that the Chargers could not take care of. The Broncos have covered five of their last seven games following a loss while the Chargers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win. 10* (473) Denver Broncos |
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10-22-17 | Saints v. Packers +4.5 | Top | 26-17 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We played against the Packers last Sunday and the win was made a lot easier because of the unfortunate injury to Aaron Rodgers. Now with Rodgers out, everybody is calling the Packers done but that is hardly the case. They are not Super Bowl contenders without Rodgers but playing in the NFC North makes them a legitimate division contender because it is so weak. Brett Hundley will be making the start in place of Rodgers and people will point to his poor effort last week. Coming into a game against a strong defense after not having practiced with the first string is a lot different than having a full week of practice to prepare. Plus, Hundley has been in this system for three years so he will be just fine, especially against the Saints defense. New Orleans is coming off a win at home against Detroit and while the score looks lopsided, the Lions lost the game on their own as they committed five turnovers that led to short fields and points for the Saints. New Orleans has won three straight games following a 0-2 start but we are not overly impressive as one win came against the Panthers before Cam Newton turned his season around while the other one came against Miami in London, part of a brutal Dolphins travel log. While this road game looks like a cakewalk to some, that is simply not the case. Not only do we back a Green Bay team that is still very talented but we are getting incredible line value as the Rodgers injury has created an eight-point swing and it is hard to justify an adjustment like that based on one player no matter how good or how important he is to the team. 10* (466) Green Bay Packers |
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10-22-17 | Jets v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 49 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Sportsbooks were taking bets before the season started on whether the Jets would go winless this season and after a 2-0 start, it was looking like it could still happen. New York then went on to win three straight games and then played the Patriots very tough last week so there has been an impressive turnaround. Coming off that close call last week however puts the Jets in a horrible spot on Sunday as that can cause a true letdown the following week. The venue has played a big part in the success of New York as it has outgained opponents by 101.3 ypg in three home games but has been outgained by 180 ypg in three road games. The Jets won in Cleveland despite being outgained by 207 yards as they took advantage of three Browns turnovers and the Dolphins will have to avoid that similar outcome. Miami has won two in a row over Tennessee and Atlanta including coming back from 17 points down against the Falcons last week. It has not been a very good season for Miami despite being 3-2 as the start to the season was incredibly tough as the Dolphins went six straight weeks of being on the road dating back to the preseason. The defense is flying under the radar as Miami is No. 3 in scoring and No. 11 overall and that can carry them again here. Additionally, Miami will be out to avenge a 20-6 loss in New York last month as it failed to score until the final play of the game. Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record while the Dolphins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. 10* (460) Miami Dolphins |
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10-22-17 | Titans v. Browns +6 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 49 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Browns are a team to be played in certain spots and this is one of those. Cleveland is winless at 0-6 while it has failed to cover five straight games. We were involved in the first non-cover of this streak where we took the Browns against Baltimore and they had late chances to cover but failed. Now after four subsequent non-covers, we will be backing Cleveland this week at home as this team has been better than the record indicates. Three of the losses have come by just three points and on the season, the Browns are getting outgained by only 2.4 ypg. We won with Tennessee on Monday night as it came to life in the fourth quarter to defeat the Colts by 14 points as it put up 21 points in the final period. The Titans now have to hit the road on short rest after what was considered a big win as it was the first Monday night game since 2014 and they were able to snap an 11-game losing streak against the Colts so do not expect to see their best effort this week. Marcus Mariota was limited last week as he was not able to move around much and may be forced to scramble more here as the Browns defense is a very solid unit as they are ranked No. 8 overall and No. 6 in rushing defense. They are allowing just 3.0 ypc which is tied for the best in the NFL and that will surprise a lot of people. Making matters even worse, Tennessee has a bye next week which could further add to its lack of focus against the 0-6 Browns. The Titans are 5-23-3 ATS against teams with a losing record. 10* (452) Cleveland Browns |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -125 | 57 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Thursday Primetime play. After going against the Chiefs last Sunday, we will be on their side this week despite laying road chalk and despite having to travel out west on a short week. Kansas City ran into a stout Steelers defense as it managed only 251 yards of offense and lost its first game of the season while also dropping its first game against the number. They head to Oakland with a 3-0 road record including impressive wins over New England and Houston and we can expect a bounce back as the Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss while going 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Seven of those covers were outright wins by double-digits. We projected the Raiders to be an overrated team this season after its success a season ago as the public was riding them as the favorites to take down the Patriots in the AFC and as expected, they have fallen flat. Oakland has lost four straight games after a 2-0 start and the offense has been horrible as the Raiders have averaged just 13.3 ppg during the four-game skid and they have dropped down to No. 30 in total offense. Typically, this would be a spot to play on Oakland based on the losing streak but things just are not right and Derek Carr looks like he came back too soon. One thing to take note is that some losing streaks can be unlucky but Oakland has been outgained in all four games and by an average of 144.3 ypg. They have had troubles with the Chiefs over the last few years with five straight losses so revenge is in play but not in this spot. 10* (301) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our Monday Primetime play. We waited on this game for confirmed injury reports and Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota has been upgraded to probable which is good news for a team that has dropped two straight games. Both of those were on the road both were horrible efforts as the Titans managed only 14 and 10 points against the Titans and Dolphins respectively so return home should lift them up. The Colts have the third-worst pass defense in the NFL, which could be the perfect recipe for Mariota and the Titans to get the offensive going once again. The Colts are coming off a win last Sunday in overtime at home against San Francisco to improve to 2-3 on the season. The lone victories have come against teams that are a combined 0-12 and both of those were at home. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has gotten more comfortable as the season has progressed but he is still pretty raw and he struggled in his lone road start at Seattle. The Tennessee defense is not as strong as that of the Seahawks but it is good enough to provide pressure and make him uncomfortable. Indianapolis has lost six of its past seven primetime games and is 2-8 in its last 10 with five of those eight losses coming by double digits, and three of the past four have been by 21 or more points. This is the Titans first Monday night appearance since November 2014 so tonight is a big deal in Nashville. This has been a one-way series of late as the Colts have won 11 straight games in the series, and 16 out of the past 17 games. Tonight provides a great opportunity to end this streak as the energized home crowd will provide a big lift for Tennessee. 10* (276) Tennessee Titans |
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10-15-17 | Steelers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 50 h 8 m | Show |
We steered clear of the Chiefs last week as they defeated Houston Sunday night to improve to 5-0 and they remain the lone undefeated team in the NFL. They are also the only undefeated team against the number and they are once again a public favorite this week, sitting as the second highest consensus home team on the card. Going back to last season, the Chiefs have won 15 of their last 17 regular season games which is pretty incredible for a team that gets very little fanfare. It has been a different team in that Kansas City is getting it done with big plays as opposed to the typical dink-and-dunk approach of past seasons. While the offense is getting the praise, the defense has taken little heat for being ranked No. 27 in the league. It is not one bad aspect as Kansas City has struggled against both the run and pass. The Steelers have been an early season disappointment as they are 3-2 with an embarrassing loss against Jacksonville last week at home while also losing at Chicago three weeks ago in overtime and that is the Bears lone win on the season. Costly turnovers and special teams mistakes have hurt but this is still a dangerous offense with plenty of playmakers that can take advantage of the Kansas City defense. One mainstay is the defense that is ranked No. 6 in points allowed and No. 3 in total defense. Many will point to the fact this is a double-revenge game for the Chiefs so they will be highly motivated for payback but a big concern for Kansas City backers is why is this line so low for supposedly the best team in the NFL playing a team struggling to find it identity? The Steelers are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (269) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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10-15-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 50 m | Show |
The Rams lost a tough one at home last week against Seattle as it fell by six points despite winning the yardage battle by 134 total yards and now they hit the road for a third time looking to stay undefeated on the highway. They defeated San Francisco and Dallas and are in a good spot to stay unblemished despite this being called a trap game by some coming off a division game with a division game on deck. The fact Los Angeles lost last week is working in our favor this week so there will be no look ahead to Arizona. The Rams possess the second highest scoring offense in the NFL and they are ranked No. 5 in total offense thanks to a resurgent Jared Goff who is managing the game well after struggling in his rookie season where he finished 80th in QBR of all quarterbacks. Jacksonville is also 3-2 on the season following a win in Pittsburgh last week despite getting outgained by 58 total yards as it took advantage of Steelers turnovers that resulted in a pair of defensive touchdowns. The defense has been the story, namely because of last week, but despite ranking No. 5 in points allowed, the Jaguars are No. 14 in total defense so it has been playing the bend and do not break model. This is also affecting the offense as the points off defensive scores have inflated the numbers as Jacksonville is No. 5 in points scored but just No. 19 in total offense. This shows how turnovers can skew a lot of things including records as the Jaguars are top ranked in the NFL in turnover margin so it will be a priority for the Rams to take care of the ball. The Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. 10* (265) Los Angeles Rams |
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10-15-17 | Lions +6 v. Saints | Top | 38-52 | Loss | -118 | 93 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Game of the Week. One way to look for line value is to look at your power ratings and figure out what the line would be on a neutral field. Add three points for home field advantage and there is your comparable pointspread. In this case, the Lions and Saints are evenly matched on a neutral field which makes New Orleans a three-point favorite at home but somehow this number has gone from a 3.5-point opening to its current line of six points as of Wednesday afternoon. It would not be surprising to see this number come back down a little but nonetheless, the value is clearly on the Lions. Detroit is coming off a loss against the suddenly resurgent Panthers at home and the game was more lopsided as the score indicates as Detroit put up a couple late touchdowns after trailing 27-10. The Lions have been solid on both sides of the ball as they are ranked No. 10 in scoring offense and No. 11 in scoring defense and they are a half-yard away on offense from being 4-1 instead of 3-2. The Saints looked awful in their first two games against Minnesota and New England as they lost both games by double-digits and were outgained both times by 126 total yards. Then something clicked as they rolled over the Panthers in Carolina before they started their comeback and then shut out the Dolphins in London although that is not saying a lot. The defense was atrocious in those first two games and while it looked better the last two, Carolina is still ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring and Miami is ranked dead last. Detroit should have no issues moving the ball and putting up points. While Drew Brees is known for his success after a bye week, Matthew Stafford is 5-0 ATS in his last five games after a bye while the Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (257) Detroit Lions |
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10-15-17 | Packers v. Vikings +3 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 48 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We played against Minnesota on Monday as it won in Chicago but failed to cover and now the Vikings go from a road favorite to a home underdog which is a great situation to play into. Minnesota is 3-2 to start the season and will be without San Bradford again this week which is a good thing as he was clearly not right last week when he made the start. Case Keenum came in and played a great game as he went 17-21 for 140 yards and a touchdown. The Vikings have outgained four of five opponents including all three home games where they have covered 24 of their last 32 games. Green Bay came from behind last week against the Cowboys, scoring the game winning touchdown with 11 seconds remaining. That was a huge road victory for the Packers and a letdown is always a possibility and like the Vikings, they switch roles, going from a road underdog to a road favorite. Green Bay has been outgained in each of its last two games despite winning and now faces the 7th ranked defense in the NFL. While Minnesota did get to face Mitchell Trubisky last week, it has already faced Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and Matthew Stafford. Going back to the start of last season, the Vikings have held 19 of 21 opponents to fewer than 300 yards passing. While Green Bay has owned the NFC North, it has lost two of the last three meetings and going back, the Packers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. This is a huge game for Minnesota to keep pace in the division as a trip later in the season to Green Bay could result in a 0-2 record against the Packers should they lose this one. 10* (260) Minnesota Vikings |
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10-15-17 | Patriots -9 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 45 m | Show |
The Patriots improved to 3-2 with a win in Tampa Bay last Thursday night but it has been outgained in four of five games so they have been far from the same team we are accustomed to. To their credit, the Patriots have played the 3rd ranked schedule in the NFL so they now finally get a break. In addition to taking a step down in competition, they are playing on an extended break which is the second time this season they have played following a Thursday and the first time resulted in a 16-point win in New Orleans. Going back, Tom Brady has won eight straight games following a Thursday game, winning those by an average 19.8 ppg. The problem for the Patriots has been the defense but it looked its best all season against the Buccaneers and now faces the No. 26 ranked defense in the league. The Jets are off to a surprising 3-2 start despite being near the bottom of the NFL in both offense and defense but they have had the luxury of facing the Dolphins, Jaguars and Browns the last three weeks and overall, they have played the No. 27 schedule in the league. Despite the winning record, they are ahead of only three teams in the current power rankings and while one of those is the Browns who they just defeated, they were outgained by 207 yards against Cleveland. New York has held its own against the Patriots at home over the last few years with four straight covers but this is a completely downgraded version of the past editions. Even though New England knows what it will be facing, this is still a divisional rivalry so it will not be taking this team lightly, especially knowing it is tied for the lead in the AFC East. The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (253) New England Patriots |
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10-12-17 | Eagles +3.5 v. Panthers | Top | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 58 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Thursday Primetime Play. Two of the top teams in the NFC square off on a short week with the winner sitting in good shape as we get closer to the halfway point of the NFL season. Both teams are playing better than what was expected coming into the season and in this matchup, we are backing the better offense which usually is not the case with teams such as these that are so close in record and power rankings. Carolina allowed a total of six points in its first two games against the 49ers and Bills but the Panthers have allowed 29.3 ppg over their last three games, all of which have come against very potent offenses. The bad news is that they face another strong offense as the Eagles are ranked in the top ten in almost every major offensive category including No. 3 in total offense, No. 5 in rushing offense, No. 9 in passing offense and No. 6 in scoring offense. Through five games, Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has thrown for just five fewer yards (1,362 yards) than Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, and his 10 touchdowns are one fewer than New England's Tom Brady. Wentz is also protecting the ball better this season. He threw touchdowns to four different targets Sunday, which speaks to the upgrade in weapons thanks to offseason spending as well as improvement from homegrown players. Carolina is ranked outside the top half of all of the aforementioned offensive categories even with solid performances the last two games. The Eagles effectively shut down Melvin Gordon and had blanked Kareem Hunt for a good portion of their matchup against the Chiefs and they are ranked No. 2 in rushing defense so they can concentrate on slowing down Cam Newton and the rejuvenated passing game. The Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (103) Philadelphia Eagles |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +4 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Monday Primetime Play. We are going with a rookie quarterback on national television and while that may seem like a bad move, things will not get any worse for the Bears. They have played horrendous on the road but are a play away from being 2-0 at home against the Falcons and Steelers and this is with former quarterback Mike Glennon playing average. Chicago was getting around a touchdown in both of those home games and while they are not getting that number here, the Bears are still a home underdog and we are not really sure they should be. The Vikings should get Sam Bradford back tonight at quarterback which is an upgrade from Case Keenum who had one great game against the Buccaneers but struggled against the Steelers and Lions. But, it is still unclear how healthy Bradford really is considering the knee could not be played on a few weeks ago and it has been troublesome in the past. The Vikings stop unit is ranked No. 9 in both total defense and scoring defense so they have been able to keep games close as the offense has sputtered to No. 21 in points scored. On the other side, the Bears have allowed 26 ppg which is ranked No. 27 in the NFL but that is skewed. Chicago has allowed four scoring drives that consisted of 3, 7, 13 and 16 yards as turnovers have been the difference where it has given it away 10 times which is tied for third most in the NFL. To put this in perspective, the Bears are ranked No. 6 in the NFL in total defense. Chicago has covered four straight games after scoring 15 or fewer points while the Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. 10* (476) Chicago Bears |
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10-08-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -2 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our Sunday NFL Star Attraction. After Dallas lost to Denver, people were sour on the Cowboys and they bounced back to win against the Cardinals the following week. After a home loss against the Rams last week, the public is again sour on the Cowboys and they will be hammering the Packers and early consensus reports are proving that. This is a perfect example of the short-term memory of the public as they remember what they saw the week before and take that too much into account. While the Cowboys are just 2-2, they are better than the record shows and we can expect a bounce back and while the sample size is small, the Cowboys have won all three regular season games following a loss over the last two years. There is an exception as they lost in Week 17 to the Eagles and then lost their first playoff game off a bye week and it happened to come right here against the Packers so there is some payback motivation in store as well. Green Bay took care of Chicago last Thursday on a short week as it caught the Bears in a tough travel spot coming off an overtime win over the Steelers four days before. Now the Packers have additional prep and rest this week but they hit the road where they have been very average. Since 2012, the Packers are 21-20 on the highway during the regular season and that is the epitome of average. This is even more true knowing that Green Bay is 33-9-1 at home over this same stretch. The Packers have been outrushed in all four games and they are now thin at the running back position with the injury to Ty Montgomery who is questionable with broken ribs and this not a good matchup as the Cowboys are 15-1 the last two seasons when winning the rushing battle. 10* (472) Dallas Cowboys |
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10-08-17 | Seahawks +1 v. Rams | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 74 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our Sunday NFL Enforcer. Seattle pulled away for us last Sunday night over the Colts and that was a much needed second half to try and gain some momentum after an average start to the season. While much has been said about the offense, the further the season moves along, the better they will become and it is hard to ignore the fact they have outgained each of their last three opponents and by a combined 317 total yards. This is one of the most talented teams in the NFL but as is the case most weeks, they are not the public favorite because of what is going on in Los Angeles. The Rams are the talk of the league right now and kudos to head coach Sean McVay for making them relevant again, for at least a quarter of a season. They are coming off an impressive come-from-behind win over the Cowboys last Sunday as they outscored Dallas 19-6 in the second half but the Cowboys did themselves in with mistakes at the wrong times. The other two wins have come against San Francisco and Indianapolis which are the same as Seattle but again, when looking at talent, the Seahawks are clearly superior. The public is on the Rams though and we can thank the media for that despite the fact Los Angeles has been outgained in each of its last three games. Seattle opened as the chalk here but the line flipped and for no reason as it comes back to the talent gap as well as past success or lack thereof. The Rams have played Seattle very tough in recent years as they have covered seven of the last 10 meetings, winning half of those games outright but now that the Rams have caught the public eye, the Seahawks will not be looking past them which they have been guilty of in the past. 10* (467) Seattle Seahawks |
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10-08-17 | 49ers v. Colts -1 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 69 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our Sunday NFL Supreme Annihilator. The Colts are coming off a loss in Seattle last Sunday but if they can take any positives away, it was how good they played for a half. They led by five points at halftime before Seattle pulled away because of turnovers and it finally got its offense going. It was not a good spot for Indianapolis as the Seahawks were coming off a loss in Tennessee while the Colts were coming off their first win of the season. Obviously, this is a different team without Andrew Luck at quarterback but Jacoby Brissett has been pretty solid and he did have his best game at home in his last start against the Browns and he gets a similar matchup this week. Defensively, the Colts have been awful as they are ranked No. 32 in scoring defense and No. 31 in total defense but they can bring those rankings up after this weekend. San Francisco is coming off a tough overtime loss at home against Arizona which was their third straight close loss. The 49ers have lost their last three games by a combined eight points but two of those are a little skewed and now they head east for the first time this season. The 49ers offense has struggled for the majority of the season as taking away 13 late points scored against the Rams, they have scored just 53 points in their other 236 minutes of play. Noy only is traveling east a bad thing for San Francisco but traveling anywhere has been an issue for a while as it has won just two of its last 18 road games while the Colts have covered 17 of their last 22 games coming off a loss when not playing a division opponent. While the majority of those are with Luck in the lineup, the number they are laying is a short one and should have no trouble covering as a win likely means a ticket casher. 10* (462) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-08-17 | Titans v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 10-16 | Win | 101 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Dolphins are off to a 1-2 start and should be 0-3 if not for a missed Chargers field goal and while the play has been poor, they have had to deal with one of the worst travel schedules we have seen. The hurricane forced them to cancel their first game of the season and went out west to get ready for the Chargers. Miami then had to travel east to face the Jets and then had to go further East to London to face the Saints. The Dolphins are now ready to finally host their first game of the regular season and it took a month to do so and we will see their best effort of the season after scoring one garbage touchdown with no time left over their last two games. Even going back further, they have not played a home game since August 17 as their last two preseason games were also on the road. The line came out late here because of the uncertain status of Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota but his presence or absence does not matter in this spot as this is more of a play on the Dolphins and the situation that favors them. We played against Tennessee last week in Houston and after getting thumped by the Texans, the Titans would typically be in a great spot to bounce back. This is not one of those however as they are travelling into a tough situation in the second of back-to-back road games with an ailing quarterback. Tennessee has outgained only one opponent this season which is not good for a supposed deep playoff contender and last week could not have gone worse after getting outgained by 260 yards. The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the Titans are 4-22-3 ATS in their last 29 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (460) Miami Dolphins |
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10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs +6 | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is considered a must win game for the Patriots which are coming off their second loss of the season and could feasibly be sitting 1-3 right now if not for a late comeback against the Texans. While still considered one of the best teams in the NFL, New England is going to be fine once we get into the latter part of the season but right now, this team cannot be trusted laying points on the road with the current state of its defense. Tom Brady has been a master throughout his career when coming off a loss in a game he should not have lost as he has won 16 of 19 games following a loss as a favorite but he has never had a defense behind him like this one. New England has allowed all four quarterbacks it has faced to throw for 300 yards and overall, the Patriots are No. 32 in total defense and No. 31 in scoring defense. To make matters worse, two of their top players, cornerback Stephon Gilmore and linebacker Dont'a Hightower are banged up with leg injuries and are far from 100 percent. Jameis Winston is off to a solid start and can succeed as well but the Buccaneers are not looking to get into a shootout although with his receiver weapons of Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, a shootout would not be a disadvantage. They are getting Doug Martin back tonight which is good for ball control and balance and the aim is to keep the Patriots offense off the field as much as possible. The Tampa Bay defense will be playing a big role in this outcome and while its topline numbers are not very good, the Buccaneers are fourth in the NFL allowing 18.5 yppt. Despite the porous defense, the Patriots are the big consensus once again and the line has gone up because of it. Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 350 or more total yards in its previous game. 10* (304) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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10-02-17 | Redskins +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-29 | Loss | -113 | 103 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Monday Primetime Play. The Chiefs were up to it again last week as they won a game despite losing the yardage battle. They took advantage of three Philip Rivers interceptions to jump ahead early and up by just a touchdown late in the fourth quarter, they scored the final touchdown on a 69-yard Kareem Hunt run. This was the second time Kansas City has been outgained this season after getting outgained the majority of the time last season which shows it takes advantage of opportunities when handed out. People are calling this team the best in the NFL right now but it is hard to make that claim when the Chiefs are ranked No. 11 in the NFL in yardage differential. The Redskins won their second straight game last week and it was a dominating performance over the Raiders as they outgained Oakland by 344 total yards thanks to a defense that gave up only 128 total yards and seven first downs. Kirk Cousins was efficient on offense as he completed 25-30 passes for 365 yards and just as important, he completed passes to eight different receivers. Duplicating that performance this week will be tough to do but we do not need a duplication since Washington is getting a touchdown here which is a very overinflated line. The Chiefs have been somewhat vulnerable on defense but they have not paid a price to this point and this is a team that can hurt them as long as they avoid mistakes. The Redskins have not gotten this many points on the road since November of 2015 and even with lower numbers, they have been very lucrative going 10-2 ATS over their last 12 road games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (279) Washington Redskins |
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10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks -13 | Top | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 84 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Play. Seattle has gotten off to a rough start. Losing at Green Bay and Tennessee while narrowly beating San Francisco at home. This is nothing new though as the Seahawks have started slow in the past only to recover and make it to the postseason and we can expect that again this year. For a team that has looked nothing like a playoff team, laying a big number such as this may seem illogical, the talent on Seattle is arguably the best in the NFL top to bottom. The Seahawks have covered nine of their last 13 games when laying double-digits. The Colts won their first game of the season last week against Cleveland but they nearly gave the game away after piling up a big lead. Indianapolis made a quarterback change after getting blown out in their season opener against the Rams and Jacoby Brissett has not been bad at all, putting up an 85.8 quarterback rating. His first two starts have come at home making this his first road start and it could not come at a tougher venue. In six previous career appears, he has been on the field for just three plays on the road, all this season at Los Angeles. The Colts have been outgained in all three games and on average, they have been outgained by 94 ypg which is the largest margin in the NFL. So, while two of the games have been close, Indianapolis is playing worse than what its 1-2 record is showing. The Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the Seahawks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss. Seattle is the only team in the NFL that has failed to cover a game this season and it gets a good opportunity to break that streak Sunday night. 10* (278) Seattle Seahawks |
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10-01-17 | Titans v. Texans +2 | Top | 14-57 | Win | 100 | 94 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Game of the Week. Tennessee is becoming a hot topic, going from Week One loser against the Raiders to a team on the rise ready to contend. We are not saying they are not going in that direction but the Titans are not to the point of laying points on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL. They are coming off a blowout win over Jacksonville and followed that up with an impressive win last week against Seattle at home although they did their best to give that one away. This will be only the second time that Marcus Mariota has faced the Texans as he missed the season finale last year with an injury and the first meeting did not go well as he was just 13-29 with an interception. Houston is coming off a very admiral effort last week in New England as it nearly pulled off the upset but lost in the final seconds. While it was a tough loss, it is one that the Texans, namely Deshawn Watson, can build on going forward. He did throw two picks but also threw two touchdowns while surpassing 300 passing yards and ran for 41 yards so he is getting more comfortable. Houston returns home where it lost its only game but the offense has improved since then and this is a must victory or it will be sitting two games out of first place with a 0-2 divisional record. The defense was not great last week but not many are when facing the Patriots and last season, the Texans had the best home defense in the NFL, allowing just 300.1 ypg. This is a great spot they have thrived in as the Texans are Houston is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 divisional games off a pair of road games while going 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games as divisional favorites against teams off a non-divisional game. 10* (260) Houston Texans |
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10-01-17 | Panthers v. Patriots -9 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Underdogs were 12-4 against the number last week as bookies cleaned up but we will see more of a favorite/underdog split this week so taking some chalk is not a bad thing after a week like that even though we are more contrarian/underdog players. One of those laying points is New England which has put together a couple of duds at home despite pulling out the win last week. The Patriots offense was atrocious in Week One but it has looked much better the last two weeks, putting up 951 yards of total offense and while it faces a strong defense this week, it faced an equally strong defense last week and put up 36 points. This is an important game for New England as it will be working on a short week with a trip to Tampa Bay on Thursday so this one is big. Defensively, the Patriots have been horrific but that should not matter here. For the second week running, the Panthers offense will take on the league's worst ranked defense. Last week the Saints defense ranked 32nd in the NFL, but after a poor performance from Carolina, New Orleans moved up and New England slid down. The Panthers offense is in trouble. Cam Newton is clearly not healthy and is a shell of himself from two years ago. Tight end Greg Olsen is on injured reserve with a broken foot while wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin is a question mark after he injured his surgically repaired knee in the loss to New Orleans. Newton is expected to play, but there is a sense of uncertainty surrounding his overall potential. Even with the ATS loss last week, New England is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite while the Panthers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (254) New England Patriots |
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10-01-17 | Bills v. Falcons -7.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Falcons dodged a second bullet last week as they were a half-yard away from a loss while in Week One, they were a dropped Chicago pass from losing. They survived both and now they return home where they have been lights out over the last two seasons including an 11-point win over the Packers which was not as close as that final margin shows. Atlanta averaged 35 ppg at home last season and it is right on pace for that again this season albeit after just one game. The Falcons fall into a great league-wide situation as we play on single-digit home favorites that are 3-0 on the season. This situation is 24-7-1 ATS (77.4 percent) since 1980. With a bye next week, the Falcons will be fully focused on Sunday. Buffalo is one of two teams, Kansas City being the other, that has covered all three games to open the season based on the closing line. The Bills defeated the Jets opening week but they did struggle at Carolina as they lost 9-3 and last week, they defeated Denver despite getting outgained by 94 yards. We were on Buffalo against the Broncos but we are fading in a big way this week as the situation is not good at all. The Bills have notoriously struggled on the road with the offense and last season, Buffalo averaged 30.7 ppg at home compared to 19.1 ppg on the road and we have already seen that variance this season. The Falcons passing defense has been suspect but Buffalo does not have the passing game to take advantage and cannot play catch-up when falling behind and forcing to pass the ball. The Bills have yet to be tested by a potent offense and they will not be able to match up here. 10* (268) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers -7 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Packers are off to a 2-1 start and have not looked good in doing so. They defeated Seattle in Week One and the Seahawks are clearly down right now, they lost in Atlanta in a game that was not as close as the final score showed and it took a last second touchdown in regulation last week against Cincinnati to eventually prevail in overtime. Green Bay could use a stress-free game to get some momentum going and this is the perfect spot and a much needed one with a game at Dallas next week. Under quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have dominated the Bears, winning 15 of 19 meetings while covering 14 of those games. One of those wins came where Rodgers was knocked out early in the game with a shoulder injury so after a subpar start to the season, he should bust out here. Of the Bears seven losses to Rodgers in Green Bay since 2008, five have come by double figures. We won with the Bears last week as the spot was perfect but now they hit the road once again where they lost their only game on the highway this season, a 29-7 loss in Tampa Bay. Chicago has lost nine straight road games and has covered just two of those with the average margin of defeat being 14.4 ppg in those nine games. The Bears defense has played well thus far, namely the rushing defense, but the passing defense has struggled which is not good in this matchup. On the other side, Chicago quarterback Mike Glennon made only five throws that traveled in the air at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage last week so look for the Packers to challenge the Bears to throw. The Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. 10* (102) Green Bay Packers |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our Monday NFL Primetime play. After opening the season with a pair of road games resulting in a split, the Cardinals are back in Arizona for their home opener. They lost to Detroit in their season opener after blowing an early lead which coincided with the loss of David Johnson with a wrist injury. Arizona bounced back with a win at Indianapolis in overtime last week although it dominated the game more than that score indicates. Arizona was arguably the best non-playoff team in football last season as it went 7-8-1 with five of those losses coming by a possession and on the season, the Cardinals finished No. 9 in total offense and No. 2 in total defense and along with the Patriots, they were the only two teams that finished in the top ten in both categories. The Cowboys are coming off a poor effort last week in Denver so there will be plenty of motivation after getting called out internally and numerous time in the media. While motivation will play a part, it is hard to put Dallas in this spot of a road favorite. The Cowboys have not lost back-to-back regular season games since Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott were drafted and that is playing a role in this number as well. While not all teams are structured like the Broncos, upcoming opponents like the Cardinals now have a basic blueprint to use against Dallas. The public is riding the Cowboys this week looking for a bounce back but the fact this is the first time since 2014 that Arizona is a home underdog makes this a must take. 10* (490) Arizona Cardinals |
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09-24-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -100 | 75 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our Sunday NFL Enforcer. The Chargers are up to their old tricks. We had a play on San Diego Week One and it resulted in a push for most as it had a field goal blocked as time expired which resulted in a three-point loss. They then lost to Miami last week as a field goal was missed in the final seconds that would have won the game. The Chargers won only five games last season but were decimated by injuries (355 man-games lost, most in the NFL) but nine of their 11 losses were by just one possession so going back to December of 2015, 14 of their last 16 losses have been within reach. While it is only Week Three, this is a must win for Los Angeles as it is already two games out of first place which is occupied all three other teams so being three games out after three games could be the end already. Kansas City is 2-0 and following its very impressive win over New England on opening night, the Chiefs followed up with a win against Philadelphia last week but it was a game they got away with. There were dropped passes, missed interceptions and other opportunities for the Eagles to pull out this win as they won the yardage battle by 62 total yards but lost on the scoreboards. This has been typical for the Chiefs which seems to get outgained two of every three games yet somehow manage to win two of those. Kansas City has won seven consecutive road games so putting them in the favorite role here was a must and even with that, the Chiefs are the biggest public consensus on the entire NFL card for the weekend. That makes this a take all the way. 10* (484) Los Angeles Chargers |
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09-24-17 | Broncos v. Bills +3.5 | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 73 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Game of the Week. Denver must be feeling pretty good about things following a last second victory over San Diego in its season opener and then the dismantling of the Cowboys last week. Now the Broncos go from the rare NFL situation of being home underdogs to road favorites and the spot could not be worse. After opening the season with two home games, Denver has to travel to the east coast for an early start and then heads back home next week to take on hated rival Oakland. The thought is that Denver has a significant home field advantage in December because of the bad weather but it has a bigger edge at home in September because of the altitude and opposing teams not fully conditioned early in the season. The Broncos have now gone 2-0 the last eight times they have opened the season with two straight home games. The Bills could not make it 2-0 as they went to Carolina last week and lost to the Panthers 9-3. The Panthers dominated the time of possession 38:53-21:07 despite running just 12 more plays so Buffalo never really had a chance to get anything going. While the offense struggles, the defense was solid which should carry over into this Sunday. They have notoriously struggled on the road with the offense and last season, Buffalo averaged 30.7 ppg at home compared to 19.1 ppg on the road. The Panthers defense held them in check and while the Broncos defense has been dominant, as said earlier, that was at home. The Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game while Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games after a win by 14 or more points. 10* (470) Buffalo Bills |
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09-24-17 | Steelers v. Bears +7.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 70 h 13 m | Show |
We played on the Bears in Week One in a fairly similar situation and we will back them again this week. Chicago nearly defeated Atlanta in that season opener but a dropped pass late in the game prevented a 1-0 start but it still managed the cover and now the Bears are catching a bigger number. They followed that tough game with a 22-point defeat at Tampa Bay last week as they missed out on several opportunities. Chicago was outgained by just one yard but a lot of its own yards came in garbage time and while that can be a red flag when looking at stats, the Bears got inside the redzone three times but managed just one touchdown. Now the Bears return home where they have been much more competitive, going 3-6 since the start of last season with four of those six losses coming by less than a touchdown. The Steelers are off to a 2-0 start but it is not a very impressive 2-0. They defeated the Browns by a field goal in their opener and caught a break last week when Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford was ruled out during warmups. Their defense has led the way as they have given up just 237 ypg which is third best in the NFL but the offense is a concern. While they have scored 47 points in two games, they are ranked No. 16 in total offense and they will be facing an underrated Bears front seven with nose tackle Eddie Goldman, defensive end Akiem Hicks and linebackers Danny Trevathan and Leonard Floyd leading the way. They allowed 372 yards against Atlanta but 88 of those yards came on one play. Pittsburgh is not nearly as good on the road as it is at home and it is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games when favored by more than a touchdown. 10* (466) Chicago Bears |
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09-24-17 | Saints +6 v. Panthers | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 70 h 13 m | Show |
Overreactions to the two weeks of the season happen every year and it is no different this season as we are seeing numerous undefeated teams favored on the road because the public loves to ride these supposed great teams. The situation is a little different here as Carolina is playing at home but there is a huge overreaction to what it has done so far. The Panthers are 2-0 with very unimpressive wins over San Francisco and Buffalo. Many will argue that they were in fact impressive considering they allowed just six points total but those came against two offenses that are still searching for answers so those results are a bit skewed. They now face a very potent offense and one that could give them fits which has been the case for years. Offensively, Carolina is challenged as Cam Newton is still not close to 100 percent and not the same player he was two years ago and now he must carry on without tight end Greg Olsen who is out for an extended period of time after breaking his foot last week. The Saints defense is under scrutiny again but they have had a couple tough spot as Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford tore them apart while Patriots quarterback Tom Brady did the same last week. New Orleans had an awful schedule break last week as it was coming off a short week and had to face New England which was coming off a long week after playing the previous Thursday and coming off a loss only made it worse. This is as close to must win as it gets. The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (473) New Orleans Saints |
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09-24-17 | Falcons v. Lions +3 | Top | 30-26 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 12 m | Show |
The Super Bowl hangover has not affected the Falcons which have won their first two games although they were fortunate to get out of Chicago with a win Week One. They looked great last week at home against the Packers but they were in such a good spot as it was their first home game since losing the Super Bowl and in a brand-new stadium on top of that. The energy was out of control but now they hit the road again as an overvalued team in a suspect role as a road favorite and coming off a Sunday night game against a non-divisional opponent causes a letdown. Clearly, this is a very good team but as pointed out many times over the years, great teams do not win every week and we must find the spots to figure that out. Detroit is also 2-0 following its Monday night win over the Giants. The Lions have been great defensively so far as they are allowing 289 ypg which is No. 7 in the league as they have shut down the Cardinals and Giants. We must decipher if this is a fluke or if the Lions are for real to prove their playoff appearance last season was not a fluke. Last season, Detroit had 26 sacks, tied for second-to-last in the league, forced only nine fumbles and made 10 interceptions, ranking in the bottom third in both categories and that is something that will turn around this season making the defense even stronger. The Lions showed balance on offense last week and they will need that here to control the clock and keep the Falcons offense off the field. Going back, the Lions are 10-3 over their last 13 home games and going back, they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (478) Detroit Lions |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our Thursday Primetime Play. San Francisco is one of two teams in the NFL that have not scored a touchdown through the first two weeks of the season while the Rams are averaging 33 ppg which is tied for third in the NFL. Because of this, it comes as no surprise the Rams are favored on the road and the public is eating it up. Los Angeles is the better team here but if the better team always won, there would be no point in playing the games. Even saying that the Rams are the better team may not be true because we have yet to see the real 49ers team and what they are capable of in a matchup like this. While they have yet to score a touchdown, they have played the Seahawks and Panthers, two of the strongest teams and defenses in the NFC and the schedule is ranked No. 8. And they were not dominant in those games as they have been outgained by just 70 and 64 total yards. Los Angeles meanwhile has played the No. 29 ranked schedule as it has faced the Colts, clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL without Andrew Luck, and the Redskins, who have their problems as well. They are now favored for a third straight game and in their first road game of the season no less. While the 49ers lack of offense has been the story, the defense has quietly played very well, allowing just 299.5 ypg and 17.5 ppg, both ranked in the top ten. This unit was expected to be much better this season and so far, it has made improvements and the jury is still out on the Rams offense. The 49ers hit the road for three straight games after this so they know this is a big game to not let the season get away from them early and we will see that effort tonight. 10* (302) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants -3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our Monday Primetime play. There were four teams from Week One that are expected to be playoff contenders whose offenses looked in shambles, namely the offensive lines of each. The Bengals, Texans and Seahawks were the first three that played this week and none of those looked much better, scoring 9, 13 and 12 points respectively. The Giants are the fourth team of that group and we are expecting them to show the most improvement. They are coming off a dreadful game at Dallas where they managed just three points and 233 yards of offense. The rushing game was non-existent with only 35 yards and while Eli Manning had only 220 yards through the air, he was efficient by going 29-38. Odell Beckham Jr. has been upgraded to probable and his presence alone even though he is not at 100 percent is huge. The Lions defeated Arizona last week in a come-from-behind victory as they scored 26 unanswered points in the second half before the Cardinals tacked on a late garbage touchdown. Detroit was fortunate that Arizona lost David Johnson as the game took the turn once he left late in the third quarter. The Lions struggles in the run game have been well documented, and nothing that happened last week against the Cardinals offers any hope that is going to change. The Giants have one of the best all-around defenses in the NFL with a solid defensive line and a deep secondary and the Lions will not be repeating their offensive outburst this week. This line opened at 5 and has been brought down to the number we were expecting and hoping to get as the Giants rebound and shake off the offensive woes. 10* (290) New York Giants |
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09-17-17 | Packers v. Falcons -3 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 74 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Sunday Primetime Play. Atlanta escaped its season opener in Chicago as it dodged a fourth quarter bullet as the Bears were unable to get into the endzone late in the game after driving into the redzone. The Falcons head back to Atlanta for their home opener and first game here since their Super Bowl meltdown and it is going to be an electric atmosphere on Sunday night. This is also the first game in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium so it will be rocking. Atlanta averaged 35 ppg at home last season and after putting up just 23 points in Chicago, this offense will be ready to score a bunch and the Packers know about that all too well. They lost twice here last season, once during the regular season 33-32 and then in the NFC Championship 44-21. This is a different Green Bay team this time around as the defense is healthy so that gives it an edge but Green Bay has never been as good on the road and is coming off a lackluster effort at home against Seattle last Sunday. The Seahawks offensive line showed why it is the weakness of the team so the nine points allowed is a bit skewed because of that. The one weakness in the Packers defense is the secondary and this is not the team it wants to face early in the season especially with Matt Ryan looking in mid-season form, going 21-30 for 321 yards last week. Many will be on the Packers in the double-revenge spot but road revenge is never an easy thing to accomplish and while the Falcons had the Super Bowl hangover last week, that will be gone this week. Any line under a field goal is ideal but even if this settles in at the three points, we are in great shape for an easy cover. 10* (288) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-17-17 | Cowboys v. Broncos +3 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 70 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our Sunday Wiseguy Wipeout. We played against the Broncos last week which resulted in a win or a push depending where and when it was played but we are backing them this week and not because they won last week. That was more of a play on San Diego which was coming off an injury plagued season and still lost numerous close games and that was the result again in Week One this season. Even though Denver has the disadvantage of playing a game after a Monday night late game, it remains home so any disadvantage is negated. Playing early season home games has been beneficial to Denver with success coming from that and a lot of that is based on the rest of the league not being able to keep up. The Broncos have gone 2-0 the last seven times they have opened the season with two straight home games and that can be attributed to conditioning in the high altitude of Denver while the opposition is not ready for the Mile-High air early in the season. Dallas is coming off an impressive home win over the Giants on Sunday night but some of that can be attributed to the Giants inept offense that has no offensive line and no running game which spells big trouble for Eli Manning. The core group of the Cowboys is back but they did lose 10 players that accounted for over 500 games so depth could be an issue although that did not come into play against New York. At over 5,000 feet above sea level, that will come into play. The Cowboys were an unheard of 10-0 outside the NFC East last season but only four of those wins were against teams above .500. going back to last season, the Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record and have no business being a favorite in this spot. 10* (284) Denver Broncos |
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09-17-17 | Redskins +3 v. Rams | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 70 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our Sunday Enforcer. Washington is coming off an unfortunate home loss against Eagles in its season opener as a two-point game late in the fourth quarter ended up being a comfortable win for Philadelphia after a late turnover was turned into a touchdown despite it being a questionable one that could have been reversed. The Redskins hurt their cause with four turnovers which included three lost fumbles and those can be considered unlucky breaks at the time. Now the Redskins must trek to the west coast in hopes of avoiding a 0-2 start and they catch a Rams team in the perfect spot. Los Angeles is coming off a blowout win over Indianapolis 46-9 but the game was not as one-sided as the score shows. The Rams returned two Scott Tolzien interceptions for touchdowns as he had a horrible game in his first start with the Colts. Los Angeles allowed single-digits after allowing 24.6 ppg last season, good for No. 23 in the league. There will be people hopping back on the Rams train overreacting to that victory but also knowing that head coach Sean McVay will be facing his former team where he was the offensive coordinator while linebackers coach Joe Barry will also be going against his former squad where he was the defensive coordinator. They will know the tendencies of their former players which can be considered an edge but current Washington coaches will know the tendencies of their former coaches so it can be considered a wash. The Redskins have a solid situation on their side as we play against teams coming off an opening game where they scored 40 or more points and playing a team off a loss. This situation is 12-2 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1980. 10* (281) Washington Redskins |
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09-17-17 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 37-16 | Win | 100 | 67 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Game of the Week. We had Best Bets on both Tennessee and Jacksonville last Sunday but managed to hit just one of those as the Titans fell short at home against Oakland. Tennessee was outgained by just nine total yards as the issue was in the red zone. While Marcus Mariota still has never tossed a red zone interception, the Titans were just 1-3 as they had to settle for two short field goals. While they arguably face a stronger defense this week, their offensive line is going to fare a lot better than what the Texans did last week. The Jaguars defense looked like one of the best in the NFL against Houston as they registered 10 sacks while holding the Texans to only seven points and 203 total yards. Mariota was sacked only once last week and Tennessee allowed the seventh fewest sacks last season. The Titans ran the ball only 21 times last week and we should see more balance this week to take some of the pressure off Mariota who was still efficient against the Raiders despite being one of only eight starting quarterbacks not to throw a touchdown pass. The Titans will be out for revenge as well as they lost here by 21 points on Christmas Eve which knocked them out of the playoffs and also knocked Mariota out for the year. While Jacksonville is riding confidence after the big road win, it is in a tough spot as it has to travel to London next week to face Baltimore and teams have gone 10-21-1 in the 32 games prior to their games in London. Going back, the Jaguars are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (261) Tennessee Titans |
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09-17-17 | Browns +9 v. Ravens | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -120 | 67 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Baltimore looked very impressive in a 20-0 win over Cincinnati last Sunday but it was more of a Bengals implosion than a Ravens domination. Cincinnati had five turnovers and while it can be argued the Baltimore defense had a lot to do in forcing those, most of those were on Andy Dalton. The Ravens offense is still a concern as Joe Flacco looked like a quarterback that got no substantial preseason snaps, which he did not, and this unit could struggle for a while. The Ravens did rush for 157 yards which was the third highest in Week One but that total came on 42 carries and their 3.7 ypc average was just middle of the pack. The Browns showed a lot of positives last week against the Steelers, especially on defense where they allowed 290 yards including a mere 35 yards on the ground which was tied for fewest in the league while the 2.1 ypc average was second best. There are still concerns on offense but DeShone Kizer looked pretty comfortable in his first start. The one big thing the Brown have going on offense is their offensive line which is definitely in the top part of the league with key additions to go along with future Hall of Famer Joe Thomas. Cleveland could not run the ball which was a surprise but committing to Isaiah Crowell is a must after he averaged 4.8 ypc last season. It is safe to say Cleveland is a better all-around team than last season yet Baltimore is laying more points now than it was in the matchup here last season and Cleveland came into that game 0-9. This is the classic case of bettors backing Baltimore because of what they saw last week and we need to look toward the future and not rely heavily on the past. 10* (263) Cleveland Browns |
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09-11-17 | Chargers +3 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our Monday Enforcer. Not many people will be high on the Chargers this season but we are not one of those. They will have one of the worst home field advantages because of their stadium but talent-wise, they are right up there. We made a future play on Los Angeles winning the AFC West which is a wide-open division. The Chargers won only five games last season but were decimated by injuries (355 man-games lost, most in the NFL) but nine of their 11 losses were by just one possession so imagine if they can go a season without longterm major injuries. Denver is nothing special with a pedestrian offense including a weak offensive line and questions at quarterback. Last season, the Broncos ranked 27th total offense at 323.1 ypg, 21st in passing at 230.0 ypg, 27th in rushing at 92.8 ypg and 22nd in scoring with 20.8 ppg. Meanwhile, the defense is losing ground. DeMarcus Ware retired, Shane Ray will not be back until at least Week Eight, T.J. Ward was released and Shaq Barrett is still working his way back from an injured hip. These teams are much more equal now. The same two systems apply to the Chargers here. First, we play on road underdogs that have missed the playoffs the last three years and are coming off a season where they won between three and eight games and won fewer games than their opponent. This situation is 36-8-2 (81.8 percent) since 2003 including 13-2 ATS (86.7 percent) since 2013. Second, we play on road underdogs of less than a touchdown that finished last season under .500 and had eight or fewer wins than their opponent. This situation is 47-14 ATS (77.1 percent) since 2004 including 13-3 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2013. 10* (481) Los Angeles Chargers |
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09-11-17 | Saints +3 v. Vikings | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our Monday Star Attraction. Both Minnesota and New Orleans missed the playoffs last season and both are projected to make runs at the postseason this year. The Vikings made the playoff two years ago thanks to a big run at the end of the season but last year was a different story as after a 5-0 start, Minnesota closed the season by winning just three of its last 11 games. There are issues on offense, especially with the offensive line, so getting the running game going will be difficult and Sam Bradford cannot win a game on his own. The Saints are an improved team which will be out to make the playoffs for the first time since 2013-14. The offense took a hit with the loss of Brandin Cooks but they will be just fine. One major improvement from this team is the defense as the secondary is better with the drafting of Marshon Lattimore and the linebackers will be improved by the drafting of Alex Anzalone, signing A.J. Klein in free agency and hiring Mike Nolan to coach the group. Two excellent situations fall onto the Saints side. First, we play on road underdogs that have missed the playoffs the last three years and are coming off a season where they won between three and eight games and won fewer games than their opponent. This situation is 36-8-2 (81.8 percent) since 2003 including 13-2 ATS (86.7 percent) since 2013. Second, we play on road underdogs of less than a touchdown that finished last season under .500 and had eight or fewer wins than their opponent. This situation is 47-14 ATS (77.1 percent) since 2004 including 13-3 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2013. 10* (479) New Orleans Saints |
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09-10-17 | Jaguars +6 v. Texans | Top | 29-7 | Win | 100 | 116 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our Week One NFL Game of the Week. Week One of the NFL season can be the most difficult to handicap since we have no information on teams that are just getting their season started. However, the people making the lines are in the same boat and that is how we take advantage as this is the only week we are on a level playing field which can be used in our favor. Lines are set based on two factors, what happened last year and expectations for this year with the normal injuries, venue, weather, etc. being taken into consideration as well. We have systems in place that have been very profitable in the first week and the Jaguars/Texans game falls into one of those which we can call the regression perception system. Houston is again expected to make a run at the AFC South title thanks to its potent defense but the offense remains a huge concern going into the season coming off a 9-7 season. Jacksonville went 3-13 last season and is coming off a preseason that was widely regarded as horrible in all aspects. The Jaguars have a season win total of 6.5 games so things are expected to be better but the public is not buying it this week against Houston as the Texans are overvalued yet the public is making the Texans the second highest home consensus on the board. This is only part of the Jaguars value as the system in place backs it up. We play on road underdogs of less than a touchdown that finished last season under .500 and had eight or fewer wins than their opponent. This situation is 46-14 ATS (76.7 percent) since 2004 including 12-3 ATS (80 percent) since 2013. 10* (457) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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09-10-17 | Raiders v. Titans -1.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for out Week One Enforcer. The Raiders were one of the pleasant surprises last season as they won 12 games but were unable to make a playoff run after quarterback Derek Carr went down. It was a special season and many are picking the Raiders as a sleeper Super Bowl team but they are missing the fact that they won five games by a field goal or less and in overtime and eight games by one possession or less so things could have been a lot different. Oakland now has a healthy Carr back and the signing of Marshawn Lynch should help the running game but this is the classic example of a team that is ripe for regression and a lot of that is based on the number of close wins from last season. Tennessee is a trendy pick to win the AFC South following a 9-7 season from last year and just missing the playoffs. The Titans have missed the playoffs the last eight seasons but now have the team on both sides to make a move. This is a rematch from last season where Oakland came here in Week Three and won 17-10 but this is a different Tennessee team playing for revenge in what turned out to be a heated game. Marcus Mariota was in a funk, Rishard Matthews was still struggling to get comfortable in the offense, and what many people viewed as the team's top two options in the passing game in Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker did not play. Now, Eric Decker, a comfortable and reliable Rishard Matthews, Delanie Walker, Taywan Taylor, and Corey Davis give Mariota multiple options. There is also a great situation the Titans fall into based on regression possibilities as we play against Week One road underdogs that won eight or more games last season and had a better record than their opponent. This situation is 35-10-3 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2004. 10* (464) Tennessee Titans |
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09-10-17 | Falcons v. Bears +7 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 116 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our Week One Wiseguy Wipeout. Atlanta enters a new season following the worst implosion in Super Bowl history as it blew a 28-3 lead late in the third quarter and eventually lost in overtime. Despite the close margin in the end, the Falcons were outgained by the Patriots by 202 yards so they were fortunate to be in that position to begin with. Many will be calling Atlanta to come out with a chip on its shoulder but these situations are tough to bounce back from despite the fact six months have passed and now we have a situation we have not seen before based on the historic collapse. One thing we do know is that teams coming off a Super Bowl loss have not fared well out of the gate. Super Bowl losers have been horrendous against the number in their first game the following season, going 3-17 ATS over the last 20 games. Now the Falcons are laying a touchdown on the road which is horrible situation to begin with. The Bears are coming off a 3-13 season and are projected for 5.5 wins this season so it looks to be another long season in Chicago. They posted their lowest win total in a non-strike year since the 1973 team went 3-11 and most losses since 1969 so not many will be backing this team. Offensively, Mike Glennon gets the call at quarterback and he a solid running game behind him led by Jordan Howard who finished second to Ezekiel Elliott with 1,313 yards rushing. For the Bears to keep things close here and throughout the season, the defense must play well and that is more than possible. The Bears believe they have the makings of a strong front seven if they stay healthy, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman, defensive end Akiem Hicks and linebackers Danny Trevathan and Leonard Floyd leading the way. Since 2001, home underdogs of seven or more points in Week One are 5-1 ATS. 10* (456) Chicago Bears |
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09-10-17 | Jets +9.5 v. Bills | Top | 12-21 | Win | 100 | 116 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our Week One Ultimate Underdog. This play goes along the same lines as the regression perception system but with a couple tweaks that makes it more of a public fade system. Week One of the NFL season can be the most difficult to handicap since we have no information on teams that are just getting their season started. However, the people making the lines are in the same boat and that is how we take advantage as this is the only week we are on a level playing field which can be used in our favor. Lines are set based on two factors, what happened last year and expectations for this year with the normal injuries, venue, weather, etc. being taken into consideration as well. The Jets are projected to win 3.5 games based on the Vegas number and there have been voices saying a winless season is not out of the question. It is clearly a rebuilding season for New York and will be an underdog in every game this season but we must consider what kind of underdog it is going to be based on the spot. Buffalo is projected to win three more games than the Jets but that could be aggressive as the Bills seem to be playing for the future as well by trading some of the better players and loading up on draft picks. At this stage, they cannot be laying a number this big to anyone and even more so with their top two quarterbacks still in concussion protocol early in the week. The situation in play here is we play on road underdogs that have missed the playoffs the last three years and are coming off a season where they won between three and eight games and won fewer games than their opponent. This situation is 35-8-2 (81.4 percent) since 2003 including 12-2 ATS (85.7 percent) since 2013. We see some crazy things in the opening week of the NFL season and a Jets win would be right up there. 10* (453) New York Jets |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots -8 | Top | 42-27 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 8 m | Show |
The Patriots closed last season by winning their last 10 games, covering the last eight games, including an improbable Super Bowl comeback over Atlanta where they trailed 28-3 before winning in overtime. New England is the favorite to win the Super Bowl once again this season at +385 as of four days before their season opener. Everyone has likely heard of the Super Bowl hangover but it does not pertain to the first week of the next season. Since the NFL began its current format for the Kickoff Opener with the winners of the previous Super Bowl playing host to the first game of the season, defending champions are 11-1 in those games (not counting Baltimore in 2013 since its game was moved to the road because of an Orioles scheduling conflict). The defending home team went 8-3-1 ATS. Going back further prior to the Thursday Kickoff Opener, defending Super Bowl Champions have gone 15-1 straight up and 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 years including cover wins the last three seasons. Kansas is coming off another successful season where it went 12-4, its second straight double-digit win campaign but it stumbled in the playoffs yet again, losing to the Steelers at home. This is a big number the Chiefs are getting here and you have to go all the way back to 2014 to find Kansas City getting a touchdown or more. The Chiefs won their last six road games last season but they are heading to an environment which will be tough to compete in and the Patriots have dominated in these situations. They are 13-3-3 ATS at home the last two seasons while going 18-7-2 against conference opponents over that same stretch. 10* (452) New England Patriots |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 269 h 24 m | Show |
This is the seventh time that the top ranked scoring offense has faced off against the top ranked scoring defense in the Super Bowl. In the previous six matchups, the top ranked defense has come away the winner but the situation is different this season based on what the defense has faced. New England played the easiest schedule in the NFL and faced very weak quarterbacks along the way. It shut down the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger last week but the Pittsburgh offense was knocked off course with the LeVeon Bell injury. Prior to that, Russell Wilson put up 31 points against New England while Andy Dalton was the second best quarterback the Patriots saw in the 2016 regular season and they are the only team in the NFL yet to face a top-10 passer this season. Atlanta scored 540 points this season, tied for the seventh-most in NFL history and 71 points clear of the next-best team. Atlanta will have success on offense as the balance is there to be effective and keep New England off balance. The difference should come down to the Falcons defense trying and stop the Patriots offense and while that likely will not happen, it will be slowed down enough. The rankings of the Atlanta defense are not very good but those rankings are skewed to a degree. Because of the firepower of the offense, opposing teams have had to try and play catch-up more often than not which leads to garbage points and garbage yards. To prove this, the Falcons have led at the half in 13 of their 18 games including the last six. Getting off to another quick start will again put them in great position to win their first ever Super Bowl. 10* (102) Atlanta Falcons |
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01-22-17 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 17-36 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 8 m | Show |
The Patriots are riding an eight-game winning streak and are 12-1 since the return of quarterback Tom Brady. Is this the product of a very elite New England team or the product of a very soft schedule? While it consists of both, it is more of the latter. Great teams win and the Patriots are doing just that but there is more too it since there has been little resistance from opposing offense. New England is No.1 in the NFL in points allowed and since Brady returned, here is the list of quarterbacks he has faced. Brock Osweiler, Matt Moore, Bryce Petty, Trevor Simien, Joe Flacco, Jared Goff, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Tyrod Taylor, Landry Jones, Andy Dalton and Cody Kessler. The quarterback with the highest rating of the group was Russell Wilson and that resulted in a loss. There is a reason the defense has looked good because the numbers are skewed. Now they get to face Ben Roethlisberger who missed the first meeting back in Week Seven and the Steelers still won the yardage battle in that game. Not to be outdone, Pittsburgh has won nine straight games and has been outgained only once over that stretch which was the regular season finale when the big three on offense rested. While the Steelers won by just two points last week, they dominated Kansas City, outgaining the Chiefs by 162 total yards. The defense is unspectacular but still very solid and can certainly slow down the New England offense. While New England is more accustomed to this spot, the Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Conference Championships games while the Steelers are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (313) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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01-22-17 | Packers v. Falcons -4 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 75 h 9 m | Show |
The Packers are the popular public play to make it to the Super Bowl as after Aaron Rodgers said they were going to run the table, they have done just that. They have won their last eight games, putting up 30 or more points in their last six, while covering seven of those games and taking three of those outright. Rodgers is playing at a high level right now as he has had a quarterback rating surpassing 100 in seven of his last nine games. Turn on any sports talk show and he is all you hear about in this game. Well, Matt Ryan may have something to say about this. He led the NFL in quarterback rating and he has surpassed a 100 rating in eight of his last 10 games. Many will point to the fact that Green Bay is once again getting more than a field goal for a second straight week but this week, the challenge will be more difficult. Last week, Green Bay jumped out to a 21-3 lead but could not pull away as the defense allowed the Cowboys and rookie quarterback Dak Prescott to get right back in the game and nearly had to go to overtime. The Packers secondary is a mess and they will be challenge even more here against the top ranked offense in the NFL. Last week, we played against Atlanta thinking the Seahawks defense could slow the Falcons down and that was not the case as Ryan tore them apart. Playing the final game ever in the Georgia Dome, the Falcons will have an even greater home field advantage which will help the defense which we saw last week. They will not shut Green Bay down but have the potential to slow them down enough to be able to allow their own offense to pull away. 10* (312) Atlanta Falcons |
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01-15-17 | Steelers +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 58 h 40 m | Show |
The Chiefs backed into a first round bye thanks to the Raiders losing Derek Carr for the season and them losing their final game of the regular season so it is very fortunately than Kansas City is sitting in this position. Despite a 12-4 record, the Chiefs were outgained on average by 23.6 ypg which is the fifth worst differential in the NFL. They were only better than the 49ers, Browns, Rams and Dolphins and we saw what happened to the latter last week in Pittsburgh. Hitting the road and winning will be a challenge for the Steelers but they are the better team and the only thing that can hurt them here is turnovers. Pittsburgh has won eight straight games and while the opposition has not been great, winning is winning and they have done it in a variety of ways. Running the ball has been successful as LeVeon Bell has rushed for 1,002 yards over his last seven games while Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown is the explosive part of the passing game. On the other side, Since Week Nine, the Steelers defense is averaging 3.5 sacks per game with consistent pressure from traditional pass rushers or timely blitzes. The Steelers have a fully stocked roster for the first time in the last three playoff appearances which is huge for this team that has so much talent all over the place. Going back, the Steelers are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. 10* (305) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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01-14-17 | Texans +16 v. Patriots | Top | 16-34 | Loss | -105 | 80 h 48 m | Show |
It is pretty rare to see teams favored by this many points in the playoffs and even during the Patriots 16-0 season back in 2007, they were not favored by this much. In the past 40 years, only three other teams have been favored by 16 points or more in a playoff game and while this line has snuck below that as of Wednesday, the point has been made. New England is good enough to win any game by more than this amount but this is not the ideal team to do it against. The Patriots have rolled to seven straight wins and finished 14-2 during the regular season but they have played no one since early in the season. Since their Week Nine bye week, they have faced two playoff teams, one resulting in a loss against Seattle and the other resulting in a win over Miami without Ryan Tannehill. Actually both wins over playoff teams since Week Seven back come against backup quarterbacks, the other being Landry Jones of the Steelers. The Texans had little issue with Oakland last week and despite winning against a backup, the defense is good enough to hold its own here. The running game will be big as well to keep the ball away from the Patriots offense. Lamar Miller sat the final two games of the regular season, but he ran the ball a season-high 31 times against the Raiders and looks healthy. Houston lost the first meeting 27-0 and that was without Tom Brady in the lineup but the Texans still won the yardage battle but gave the ball away three times, something they cannot afford to do this week. 10* (303) Houston Texans |
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01-14-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Falcons | Top | 20-36 | Loss | -106 | 77 h 49 m | Show |
The favorites dominated last week in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs as they went a perfect 4-0 straight up and ATS with all four games being decided by double-digits which made for some bad football viewing. We should see this come back into line this week and we will start out on Saturday by grabbing the first underdog. Seattle rolled over Detroit last weekend and has now outgained six straight opponents and when comparing these two teams, Seattle is arguably the better team even though the line indicated the Falcons are superior. The Seahawks offense has been all over the place this season but the good news is that they got the running game going last week and now face an even worse defense as the Falcons are ranked No. 27 in total defensive efficiency. On the flip side, Atlanta has the most potent offense in the NFL but squares off against one of the strongest defenses as the Seahawks are ranked No 4 in defensive efficiency and are ranked No. 6 in fewest yards allowed per drive at 28.58. The Seahawks have been fantastic against the run all season long, limiting opponents to a league-low 3.37 ypc. In the first meeting, the Seahawks were without strong safety Kam Chancellor and defensive lineman Frank Clark. The Seahawks are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Falcons are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. 10* (301) Seattle Seahawks |
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -10 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 52 h 54 m | Show |
It has been a great season for the Dolphins which finished 10-6 but they took a hit with the loss of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Despite that, the overall record is skewed as Miami closed the season by getting outgained in its last three games as well as seven of its last nine. The only two games the Dolphins won the yardage battle were against Los Angeles and Arizona by just 13 and 14 yards respectively. Matt Moore is a capable backup for sure but he is in a tough spot making a playoff start in what looks to be not ideal weather. The Steelers rested their main starters in Week 17 against the Browns and that was a good move. While they were outgained, that meant nothing. Prior to that, Pittsburgh had outgained nine straight opponents and the last team to outgain the Steelers happened to be the Dolphins. That was the game Ben Roethlisberger was injured and not nearly 100 percent even though he finished it out. Revenge does come into play but that is not a huge motivator come playoff time considering what is at stake. More importantly, this is a big game for Pittsburgh which surprisingly has not won a home playoff game since 2011 so motivation will be huge here based on that alone. The Steelers went 3-0 ATS this season as favorites of eight or more points while the Dolphins defeated only one playoff team this season, the aforementioned Steelers game. Additionally, the Dolphins are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (106) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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01-07-17 | Lions v. Seahawks -8 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
Seattle has not looked great lately as it is just 3-3 in its last six games but there was not much of a motivation level toward the end of the season. The Seahawks lost their only home game of the season in Week 16 against Arizona but they already had the division locked up and were no longer in contention for a first round bye so it is tough to get up for a game like that. The only time Seattle was outgained however was at Tampa Bay and it has won the yardage battle in its last five games. Overall, Seattle had the third highest yardage differential in the NFL at +38.5 ypg and third amongst playoff teams. The Seahawks finished third in scoring defense and fifth in total defense and will be a big factor here against a Detroit offense that was efficient but not very potent. The Lions definitely has a surprisingly good season with low expectations coming in but it was a season that could have easily gone south. Detroit has been involved in some close games this season as 13 of 16 games have finished within one possession win or lose. That is going to sway some bettors to back the Lions but that is not a wise move here. Detroit was outgained on average by 16 ypg which was ninth worst in the league and second worst amongst playoff teams. The weather does not look great for Saturday night and the Lions have played outdoors exactly twice since Oct. 2, and their coldest kickoff temp was 55 degrees in the Week 15 loss to the Giants. The Seattle playoff experience will play huge dividends here as well. 10* (104) Seattle Seahawks |
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01-07-17 | Raiders +4 v. Texans | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 37 m | Show |
People are unfairly putting a fork in the Raiders because of the loss of quarterback Derek Carr for the season and while that loss is huge, they are far from done especially in this matchup. Connor Cook got thrown into the fire last Sunday after backup Matt McGloin got hurt and Cook did an admiral job as he competed 14 of 20 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown along with a pick. This came with practice with the first team and going up against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Granted, Houston is in that category as well but a week of practice could do wonders for the rookie. Taking a look at the other side, Houston returns with quarterback Brock Osweiler who finished with the second worst passer rating in the NFL. The Texans offense finished ahead of only the Rams, Browns and Jets in points scored at 17.4 ppg and even that is skewed because of defensive and special team points. Houston generated more than two offensive touchdowns a total of zero times in 16 games and its 1.4 offensive touchdown per game average is dead last in the league. The Oakland defense is nothing special but Houston did not exactly play many top level defenses along the way. In a game that could go either way, we will grab the underdog that looks to be overpriced on top of it. 10* (101) Oakland Raiders |
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01-01-17 | Giants v. Redskins -7 | Top | 19-10 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
Week 17 in the NFL is all about information as teams and players have little or a lot to play for. Washington needs to win to make the playoffs and just hope that Green Bay and Detroit do not tie tonight. The Redskins have all of the motivation here as the Giants have absolutely nothing to play for. They are in the playoffs already and cannot move out of the No. 5 seed that they are currently in. Head coach Bob McAdoo said that he is playing the starters today and repeatedly stated that but that does not mean the starters are going to finish the game. After watching Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota go down last week, he will not be taking a chance with Eli Manning or any other big time starters. Washington had lost three of four games prior to last week where it thumped Chicago so it comes in with some momentum and this is guaranteed to be the final home game of the season should the Redskins get into the postseason. Even at full strength, the Giants are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. 10* (308) Washington Redskins |
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12-25-16 | Broncos +4 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 15 m | Show |
We gave out a small play against the Chiefs this past Sunday and we are going all in fading Kansas City once again this week. They fell to Tennessee on a last second field goal and are now a game behind the Raiders in the AFC West while sitting in the No. 5 spot in the AFC Playoffs, only one game ahead of Miami. Kansas City is easily the worse winning team in the league as we mentioned in the analysis from last week that they are getting outgained on average and by a significant amount. After getting outgained by Tennessee this past Sunday, the Chiefs are getting outgained by an average of 43.7 ypg. That is fourth worst in the league which is ahead of only the Rams, Browns and 49ers which are a combined 5-37. One of those games where they were outgained was their fortunate win in Denver and they were outgained there by 191 total yards but had a kickoff return for a touchdown while benefitting from 15 Denver turnovers. This is the last chance for Denver as it has to win out and get some help to make the playoffs. Following its second straight loss at home against the Patriots, there was a locker room fight between the offense and defense and while it is being played down, that is the type of fire you want to hear about. The Broncos are better than their 8-6 record shows as they are No. 11 in yardage differential and they actually have the same point differential as the division leading Raiders. While I do not think Kansas City is any better than Denver, this line is telling us the Chiefs are in fact the better team on a neutral field so getting a line this spread higher than the key number of three is huge in a game that has much on the line. Nine of the last 12 meetings have been decided by just one possession but in reality, we are more likely to see a Denver blowout rather than a Kansas City blowout. 10* (129) Denver Broncos |
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12-24-16 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
Both Tampa Bay and New Orleans are still alive for playoff spots but it is the Buccaneers that have the much better odds at this point. If Tampa Bay wins, it will move to 9-6 but still will need Green Bay, Detroit and Washington to lose and we do not see that happening this week. Tampa had its five-game winning streak snapped last week in Dallas as it blew a fourth quarter lead but still got the cover which was its sixth straight spread win. It is more straight forward for the Saints as they have to win out and hope to get a lot of help along the way. The good news is that they know if they lose either of their last two games, they have no shot at the postseason so there is no reason to even worry about playoff scenarios. They are coming off a huge win in Arizona last Sunday to stay alive and they will be out to avenge a loss in Tampa Bay two weeks ago. So should Green Bay or Washington win earlier in the day which will know the Saints out, there is still plenty to play for and it was noted that there will be no scoreboard watching prior to their own game. 10* (108) New Orleans Saints |
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12-24-16 | Redskins -3 v. Bears | Top | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
This is a must win game for the Redskins who laid an egg this past Monday night against Carolina which put a big hit into their playoff hopes. They have dropped three of their last four games after a 6-3-1 start but all is not lost. Washington can clinch a playoff berth with a win here and next week against Giants while having Tampa Bay lose once or Atlanta lose twice and Green Bay lose once or Detroit lose twice. They could actually still sneak in with a loss here but the chances are extremely slim. There has been no quit with Chicago as it has played extremely hard over the last five weeks but this is not a good spot. The Bears are coming off a pair of brutal divisional losses against the Lions and Packers by three points each and that sets them up for a big letdown here especially with another division rival on deck next week. Chicago has covered five straight games so we are catching value here because of that as well as the Redskins mini slump. Washington has covered eight of their last 10 road games and will keep that going on Saturday. 10* (103) Washington Redskins |
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12-24-16 | Dolphins v. Bills -4 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
The Bills put forth a solid effort last week against the lowly Browns following two straight losses and saving the job of Rex Ryan for at least one more week. Buffalo is still alive in the AFC playoff picture but at 7-7, the chances of making the postseason for the first time in over two decades is slim. Still, the Bills know they need to win and they will no doubt go all out against their division rivals. The Dolphins rolled over the Jets last Saturday which was their second straight win following an ugly loss in Baltimore prior to that. Miami is 8-1 over its last nine games which is one of the best runs in the NFL but it is skewed considerably. The Dolphins have been outgained in five of their last seven games and are still getting outgained on average this season by 41.9 ypg. That is ahead of only Cleveland, San Francisco and Los Angeles which is a pretty bad club to be involved with. Miami is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 December games which is pretty logical while the Bills re 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (106) Buffalo Bills |
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12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 105 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
The Giants can clinch a playoff spot with a victory over Philadelphia on Thursday and while the Eagles have been eliminated from playoff contention, they will go all out and not have New York clinch on their watch. Philadelphia has dropped five straight games and seven of their last eight after a 4-2 start but some of those losses have been very close as six of its overall losses have been by just one possession. Following a win in Chicago in its first road game, Philadelphia has dropped seven straight on the highway but it is a very respectable 4-2 at home and in one of those losses, it outgained the Redskins. The Giants are on a complete opposite run as they have won two straight and eight of their last nine games but similar to the Eagles, the games have been extremely close. Six of the last eight wins have been by a possession and New York has not been good on the road. It won its season opener in Dallas but the other two wins have come against 0-14 Cleveland and 4-10 Los Angeles. Even worse, the Giants have been outgained in all six of their road games and yes that includes the Browns and Rams. New York won the first meeting at home against Philadelphia by five points but was outgained by 141 yards in the process and in 14 games overall, the Giants have been outgained q14 times and on average they are getting outgained by 27 ypg. Because of records, the Giants were forced to be the favorite here but can definitely be considered a false favorite in this spot. 10* (102) Philadelphia Eagles |
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12-19-16 | Panthers +7 v. Redskins | Top | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The Redskins opened as a -4.5-point favorite and the line has steadily risen to a touchdown in most places and that is a big jump for two teams that are more even than the records may show. Washington is coming off a three-game roadtrip where it went 1-2 and after a four-game winning streak earlier in the season, the Redskins are just 3-3-1 over their last seven games. They have played a tough schedule and have been favored by more than 3.5 points only once this season and that was against Cleveland. Of their seven wins, only two have come by more than seven points. Obviously, it has been a disappointing season for the Panthers who will be going from playing in the Super Bowl to missing the playoffs. Only nine times has the Super Bowl runner-up finished below .500, something the Panthers can avoid only by winning their final three games. Carolina has only put up two bad games this season and those were against 9-4-1 Seattle and 9-5 Atlanta as it has outgained six of its other 11 opponents. Five of eight losses have come by three points or less while in the other defeat against Minnesota, the Panthers outgained the Vikings by 95 total yards. The pressure is squarely on Washington here and that is often a bad ingredient in games of such magnitude. The Redskins are 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (331) Carolina Panthers |
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12-18-16 | Bucs +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 57 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. The NFL flex schedule moved this game to the primetime slot that before the season would never have come close to playing on Sunday night. The Cowboys are now 11-2 on the season following their second loss to the Giants by a combined four points but are overvalued here once again. Dallas has outgained only one opponent in its last five games and while it is 4-1 in those games, there could have been more losses but was fortunate. While the Cowboys are the surprise of the league, Tampa Bay is not far behind. The Buccaneers are 8-5 and tied with Atlanta for first place in the AFC South. They have won five straight games as the defense has risen to the occasion by allowing just 12.8 ppg during the winning streak. This is certainly a big test but Tampa Bay passed the test already with wins over Atlanta, Kansas City and Seattle so it will not be intimidated here. The Buccaneers are 5-1 on the road and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 95-47 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (305) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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12-18-16 | Patriots v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -125 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Patriots picked up a solid win last Monday night to make it four straight wins and are now just one win away from clinching another AFC East title. They can also clinch with a Miami loss on Saturday so this game means a lot more for the Broncos. New England is the only remaining undefeated team on the road and the public is riding that as the Patriots are again a huge consensus this week as a road chalk. Denver lost in Tennessee last week despite outgaining the Titans by 95 yards and the Broncos have actually outgained their opponents in three of their last four losses so they have been better than their 8-5 record shows. A great angle is in play here with the better defense at home and getting points on top of it. New England is clearly playing at a high level but it has struggled here with three straight losses in Denver, the last two coming when it was favored. The Patriots are part of a negative situation where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 265 or more passing ypg going up against teams allowing between 150 and 185 passing ypg, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This situation is 34-13 ATS (72.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (326) Denver Broncos |
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12-18-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -100 | 49 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our AFC Game of the Year. This game got bumped from the Sunday night time slot and moved to 1:00 ET which helps Cincinnati because of its struggles in the limelight. After going winless in four straight games, the Bengals have won two straight and while making the playoffs will take a minor miracle, they are still in the hunt. The good news is that they face the Steelers and Ravens at home so hope is still there. Pittsburgh roughed up the Bills last week, namely Le'Veon Bell who torched Buffalo for 236 yards rushing and three touchdowns. He will find the going a little tougher this week but because of four straight victories, the Steelers are now favored by more on the road than they were last week in Buffalo. This is the first time this season that Cincinnati is getting points at home and the feeling it is unjustified in a divisional game of this magnitude. Here, we play against road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. This situation is 150-95 ATS (61.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record and will step up to the occasion on Sunday once again. 10* (330) Cincinnati Bengals |
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12-18-16 | Colts +4 v. Vikings | Top | 34-6 | Win | 100 | 49 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. After destroying the Jets on Monday night, the Colts put up a stinker last week at home against Houston and they now sit a game out of first place in the AFC South. We played against them last week because the line was way off but we are backing them this week based on what looks like not only another bad line, but a must win spot. Indianapolis travels to Oakland next week which makes this one pretty big. The Vikings started the season 5-0 but their bye week came and since then, they have gone just 2-6 as the offense has looked pretty putrid. While they scored 25 points in Jacksonville last week, they had to settle for four field goals which is not a good sign at all. The Minnesota defense has done its job for the most part but the offense has not been able to take advantage. The defense will be without safety Harrison Smith and while that was not a factor last week against Blake Bortles, it will be a factor this week against Andrew Luck. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 27-9 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (313) Indianapolis Colts |
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12-17-16 | Dolphins v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 23 m | Show |
Miami picked up a big win last week against Arizona but at the same time, suffered a big blow with the loss of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Luckily, he is not out for the rest of the season but his loss will be felt as Matt Moore takes over in his absence. Despite an 8-5 record, the Dolphins are getting outgained by over 40 ypg and that is the fifth worst differential in the league. You have to give the Jets credit last week for bouncing back from that awful effort against the Colts and also coming back from a 14-0 deficit last week against the 49ers to win in overtime. The last time they were featured at home in a national TV game was that game against Indianapolis and you can guarantee their effort will be better as to not get embarrassed again. overall, New York has struggled at home but it has been competitive for the most part and now are getting the second most points at home on the season. The Jets fall into a great situation where we play against favorites coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Jets are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse while Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road divisional games. 10* (304) New York Jets |
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12-12-16 | Ravens +6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
The Ravens have won four out of their last five game to improve to 7-5 overall but they sit a half-game behind Pittsburgh, which has won four straight games, in the AFC North. That will set up a big showdown Christmas Day when they meet but Baltimore needs to worry about the present first. The Ravens lead the NFL in total defense and scoring defense and that is a recipe for success late in the season when making a playoff charge. Another key factor is the offensive line. The Ravens are expected to go with the same starting lineup on the offensive line for the fourth straight game which comes after Baltimore had seven different lineups the previous seven games. New England is the frontrunner in the AFC East as it has a 2.5-game lead on Miami and is on pace for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. This is no easy out however as the Patriots are pretty banged up on offense. In addition to the absence of Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett is banged up and Danny Amendola is out. Baltimore has beaten Tom Brady twice in New England in the postseason and could be 4-0 against him if Lee Evans had caught that pass in the end zone in 2011 and the Ravens had held on to a 14-point lead in 2014. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-18 ATS (69 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (133) Baltimore Ravens |
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12-11-16 | Falcons v. Rams +6 | Top | 42-14 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 13 m | Show |
The Rams opened the season 3-1 and were looking like a possible playoff contender but the quarterback position has hurt them ever since. Jared Goff has taken over for Case Keenum and the results have been inconsistent to say the least. He is back home for his second start in Los Angeles and his first one here against Miami was not a bad one as he managed the game well as the defense let it slip away. Still, this is a very strong defense that is No. 10 overall and will give the Falcons some issues in their passing game. Atlanta lost a tough one last week as it allowed a defensive touchdown as well as a special teams score not mention a game losing two-point conversion return. Atlanta is now tied with Tampa Bay for first place in the AFC South so this is certainly a big game for the Falcons. They have more incentive but the linesmakers have taken that into consideration as they are laying the most points they have put down on the highway all season. Plain and simple, it is too many against a very strong defense. With the loss last week, the Falcons are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after a loss by six or fewer points. Meanwhile, the Rams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (130) Los Angeles Rams |
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12-11-16 | Cardinals v. Dolphins -1 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 70 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for out NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year. This is a great setup for the Dolphins as they look to remain in the playoff hunt in the AFC. Riding a six-game winning streak going into Week 13, Miami went to Baltimore last Sunday and got hammered 38-6 while getting outgained by 219 total yards. That dropped the Dolphins to 7-5 and took them out of a Wild Card spot but a win here coupled with a Baltimore loss in New England on Monday gets them right back in. Miami ends the season with three divisional games which makes this a big one. Arizona heads to the east coast after snapping a two-game skid with a win over Washington last week. It was not very pretty for the Cardinals which are not playing well at all with wins over the Redskins and Buccaneers being the only ones of value. The three other wins have come against two teams a combined 4-20. They are still in the playoff race as well but they have struggled on the road with the lone win coming in San Francisco and they outgained the 49ers by just two total yards. The results last week are giving us value this week as the typical adjustments have to made after one week and not looking at the overall picture. 10* (116) Miami Dolphins |
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12-11-16 | Bengals v. Browns +5.5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The winless Browns are running out of chances to avoid a 0-16 season and this could be the final chance to snag a victory. The remaining three games for Cleveland are at Buffalo, at home against San Diego and at Pittsburgh so this is the easiest of its schedule to end the season. Additionally, this is a very good spot for the Browns as they are coming off their bye week after 12 straight games and they will be getting RGIII back at quarterback which has been the shakiest area for them on offense after he went out. Cincinnati kept its very slim playoff hopes alive with a big win over the Eagles last week which was its first win since Week Seven when it defeated the Browns. Andy Dalton finally put a complete game together but this team cannot be trusted on the road where the Bengals are 1-5 with the only win coming against the Jets by a single point. Here, we play on Underdogs or pickems that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, winless on the season. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1983. Look for the Browns to collect their first victory of the season. 10* (112) Cleveland Browns |
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12-11-16 | Texans +6 v. Colts | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 70 h 49 m | Show |
We won with the Colts on Monday night and while it was a play on Indianapolis, it was just as much of a play against the Jets which failed to show up right from the start. After that 41-10 win, the Colts moved into a tie with Houston and Tennessee for first place in the AFC South making this a big game for both sides. This line is not telling us that this is a divisional game between teams with the same record as Indianapolis is laying way too big of a number here. Houston has dropped three straight games following its eight-point loss in Green Bay last week. All three losses came by just one possession however so things have been close and everything points to an even closer one here. The offense has been bad over this stretch as the Texans have managed just 46 points over the three games but they will be taking on a very poor defense this week that is ranked No. 28 overall and No. 28 in passing. That is welcome news for Brock Osweiler who has struggled in his first season with the Texans. Houston has covered six straight road division games while the Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (109) Houston Texans |
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12-11-16 | Steelers v. Bills +2 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 48 m | Show |
The Bills wasted a golden opportunity last week when they blew a 24-9 lead against the Raiders and lost to fall back to 6-6 on the season. They are currently the No. 10 seed in the AFC and are two games out of the final Wild Card spot so they need to basically win out and hope for a lot help. The schedule is very manageable however as this is the start of three straight home games and they close the season in New York against the Jets. Buffalo has been outgained only four times since starting the season 0-2 and of those four losses, three could have resulted in wins. The Steelers have won three straight games following a four-game losing streak but they are tough team to trust on the road. They are 3-3 but one of those wins came at winless Cleveland while another came at Indianapolis which was without Andrew Luck. They finish the season with three straight divisional games and the AFC West is still within grasp as they are tied with Baltimore for first place. This is definitely a big game for Pittsburgh as well but it should not be favored on the road here as these teams are more equal than their names suggest. Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two or more straight wins while Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after two or more losses against the spread. 10* (114) Buffalo Bills |
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12-08-16 | Raiders +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -100 | 52 h 53 m | Show |
Kansas City is finding ways to win but with them being dominated so much lately, it will catch up. The Chiefs are 7-1 over their last eight games but they have been outgained in six of those and most have not even been close. They have been outyarded in each of the last five games and by an average of 118.4 ypg. They were fortunate to come away with wins in each of the last two games with last week being the real fortunate one as they scored two touchdowns on defense and special teams while also returning a conversion attempt for two points. Oakland fell behind Buffalo 24-9 before scoring the final 29 points to pull out the two-touchdown win. That was the sixth straight win for the Raiders and in those, they were outgained only once. In their last 10 games, they have lost only once and that was against Kansas City at home and while road revenge is not a big factor, there will be some added motivation. Additionally, a win here could go a long way in locking up the AFC West as they would have a two-game lead with three to play. It is hard to ignore the fact Oakland is 5-0 on the road and playing with some of the best confidence in the league. While Kansas City is 4-1 at home, it has covered just once and that was against the lowly Jets. 10* (101) Oakland Raiders |
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12-05-16 | Colts -2 v. Jets | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
The Colts hit the road following their Thanksgiving loss at home against Pittsburgh where they were missing Andrew Luck but he is now back after passing concussion protocol. Indianapolis is 2-3 on the road but has played better than that record shows. Two losses came by three points, one in overtime, while the third was in Denver by 14 points but it was down by just three points under the two-minute warning before allowing a defensive touchdown, the second of the game. With Houston losing yesterday, the Colts can get into a tie for first place in the AFC South with a victory. The Jets have lost three straight games and all of those were by five points or less including a tough loss to the Patriots last week. The playoffs are no longer a possibility and New York will be challenged to get up for this game after losing to their rivals last week knowing there is not much to play for at this point. The secondary has struggled all season and the pass rush has had trouble on the edges so Luck should be able to consistently move the ball down field. The Colts defense has been an issue all season but New York is ranked No. 28 in points scored. The Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record while the Jets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (377) Indianapolis Colts |
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12-04-16 | Bucs v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Chargers have been the hard luck team of the NFL this season. They are 5-6 as they have been depleted by injuries but still, all six of those losses have come within just one possession. San Diego is outgaining opponents by over 10 ypg which is not a huge gap and they are one of only four teams in the NFL with a losing record but possess a positive point differential. The playoff scenario may look bleak but the Chargers are not out of it. Tampa is coming off an upset win over Seattle which was its third straight win, all of which it was in the underdog role. The Buccaneers are now 6-5 and just a game off the lead in the NFC South. They have won three straight road games as well but on the season, they are getting outgained on average and unlike San Diego, they are in the negative in scoring differential. Here, we play against teams coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 70-35 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Chargers are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (370) San Diego Chargers |
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12-04-16 | Lions +6.5 v. Saints | Top | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Game of the Week. New Orleans snapped a two-game skid with a blowout win over Los Angeles last Sunday. While we were on the wrong side of that call, it sets up a great opportunity to go against the Saints this week. They are now 5-6 on the season and trail the Falcons by two games in the NFC South. They are again favored by a bigger than expected number. Detroit took care of Minnesota on Thanksgiving by a field goal for its third straight victory and sixth win over its last seven games. The Lions have the lead in the NFL North by a game and a half over Minnesota and two games over Green Bay so a win here would be huge for momentum with a home game against Chicago on deck. Detroit win here last December as a 2.5-point underdog and it came into that game 4-9 so the fact it is getting more points now is a bit of an overreaction for the Saints. Detroit is 6-0 ATS in its last six games when the total is 49.5 or higher and it falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are coming off two consecutive home wins. This situation is 52-23 ATS (69.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (359) Detroit Lions |
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12-04-16 | Chiefs v. Falcons -5.5 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Falcons burned us last week as they rolled past Arizona and are in a great spot this week to make it two straight wins. Atlanta improved to 3-2 at home with the lone losses coming against Tampa Bay in the season opener and San Diego in overtime. The Falcons will not be looking past Kansas City for sure with games against Los Angeles and San Francisco up next. Kansas City was fortunate to win last week in Denver as a field goal that hit the upright and went in with two second left was the difference. The Chiefs were outgained by 191 yards and they have been outgained in four straight games. The fact they are coming off that overtime game is bad news as they had to go an extra 15 minutes and that is a big negative. As a matter of fact, since 1989 there have been nine teams coming off an overtime game that went the full distance and playing their next game on the road and all of those teams lost. The defeats were by an average of 16.7 ppg and all resulted in easy covers as well. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off an upset win as an underdog, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 109-64 ATS (63 percent) since 1983. 10* (354) Atlanta Falcons |
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12-04-16 | Broncos v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Jacksonville has dropped six straight games but unlike the past, most of the games have at least been competitive. The Jaguars have lost the last four by just one possession and three of those came on the road. They have been outgained only twice during this losing streak one of those was by just three yards which came last week in Buffalo. Three of their four home losses have been by a combined nine points. Denver lost a brutal game at home against Kansas City in overtime on a last second field goal that almost did not even go in. Now the Broncos hit the road in a very tough spot. The fact they are coming off that overtime game is bad news as they had to go an extra 15 minutes and that is a big negative. As a matter of fact, since 1989 there have been nine teams coming off an overtime game that went the full distance and playing their next game on the road and all of those teams lost. The defeats were by an average of 16.7 ppg and all resulted in easy covers as well. Jacksonville falls into another situation where we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 54-20 ATS (73 percent) since 1983. 10* (352) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings +3 | Top | 17-15 | Win | 110 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
The Dallas spread run finally came to an end as it failed to cover against Washington on Thanksgiving. Still, the Cowboys have won ten straight games outright but they are in a tough spot this week playing a desperate team with a fantastic defense in need of a win. Dallas has put up at least 24 points during the winning streak but now it faces the best defense it has seen all season in a hostile environment. The Vikings lost for the fifth time in six games on Thursday as the offense could do little once again. Stefon Diggs was a late scratch but he will be back this week while Kyle Rudolph will be good to go after leaving the Detroit game with a shoulder injury. The public is and will be all over the Cowboys again this week and that is a spot we will fade Thursday night. The Vikings have two contrarian situations in their favor. First, we play against road favorites allowing 90 or less rushing ypg, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 54-24 ATS (69.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on underdogs or pickems after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa in 2 straight games going up against an opponent after allowing 7 or more passing ypa in 2 straight games. This situation is 53-24 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Minnesota is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. 10* (302) Minnesota Vikings |
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11-28-16 | Packers +4 v. Eagles | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Green Bay is mired in a four-game losing streak and it sits two and a half games behind Detroit in the NFC North. All games are big but this is a really big one for the Packers as a fifth straight loss would essentially put them in a spot they could not recover from. The schedule has been part of the problem as while they had a four-game homestand in parts of September and October, they are now playing their fourth road game in a five-game stretch and third in a row. Philadelphia is 5-5 following a loss in Seattle last Sunday making this a big game for the Eagles as well. The edge would seem to go to Philadelphia considering that the home team is 9-1 in its games this season but while this number may not seem big, it is matched for the largest line the Eagles have put down this season, tying it with the -4 against the Browns Week One. Being over the key number of 3 is huge in this case. Green Bay falls into two solid situations. First, we play against home favorites off a road loss going up against an opponent off a road loss by 14 points or more. This situation is 93-48 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 coming off a road loss. This situation is 106-60 ATS (63.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (275) Green Bay Packers |
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11-27-16 | Rams +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 21-49 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
The Rams lost a tough one last week as they blew a 10-0 lead in the fourth quarter in falling to the Dolphins 14-10. The offense was not able to generate much but quarterback Jared Goff was fairly efficient as he went 17-31 for 134 yards and most importantly, no picks. He gets a much better matchup this week and after one game under his belt, he should be able to open it up more. The Saints lost their second straight game following a pair of wins to fall to 4-6 and remain two games behind the Falcons in the NFC South. This is the identical record as that of the Rams yet New Orleans is laying a touchdown and even more in some places. The key here is the defenses as the Saints are ranked No. 22 in total defense and No. 30 in scoring defense while the Rams are No. 6 and No. 5 respectively. The Rams have two situations on their side. First, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 off a road loss, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 49-16 ATS (75.4 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against home teams after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1983. 10* (263) Los Angeles Rams |
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11-27-16 | Bengals +4 v. Ravens | Top | 14-19 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
The Bengals have not won since before their trip to London as they are 0-2-1 but a couple breaks their way and they could be on a four-game winning streak right now. The two losses came by a combined five points against the Giants and Bills and now they head to Baltimore in a must win game without their top playmaker A.J. Green. There is still plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and despite being three games under .500, it is just -27 in point differential and just a game and a half behind Pittsburgh. Baltimore is coming off a loss at Dallas to fall to 5-5 and it is now 2-5 after a 3-0 start. Of the five wins, only one has been a dominating one and that was against Cleveland two games back. The Ravens have been outgained in five of their last six games so this is a team not to trust laying points of anything more than a field goal. Cincinnati falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems in a game involving two teams at +/- 3 ppg, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 94-44 ATS (68.1 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Bengals are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss while the Ravens are 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss. 10* (257) Cincinnati Bengals |
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11-27-16 | Chargers -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
Surprising to some, San Diego is favored on the road at Houston but it really is not that big of a surprise. The Chargers are just 4-6 on the season but they have lost some tough games all season, five of which have come by seven points or less. They have outgained six of their last seven opponents and despite a 1-4 road record, all of those losses could have been wins including two that went to overtime. Houston is coming off a devastating loss against the Raiders in Mexico City as it has a seven-point lead early in the fourth quarter but then allowed two touchdowns. That is a tough loss to recover from as the offense continues to bog the whole team down. The Texans are No. 30 in total offense and No. 28 in scoring offense. Conversely, the Chargers are No. 8 and No. 2 respectively in those categories and are very balanced. The Texans possess a strong defense but after what happened in the fourth quarter Monday night, that defense is vulnerable. Here, we play on road favorites that are completing 60 or more of their passes, after allowing 7 or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 39-12 ATS (76.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (251) San Diego Chargers |
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11-27-16 | Cardinals +6 v. Falcons | Top | 19-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
We played against Arizona last Sunday in Minnesota as that was a bad matchup for the Cardinals. They actually held their own however as they outgained Minnesota by 73 total yards but were killed by a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown and a 104-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Now they go from facing the No. 3 ranked defense to facing the No. 28 ranked defense so the offense should be fine after putting less than 300 yards last week. Atlanta has lost three of its last five games and following its bye week, this is a big game for the Falcons but the matchup is not in their favor at all. Despite this, they are laying a bigger than expected number and this time of year, the defenses are very important. While Matt Ryan and the offense has been great all year, Atlanta now has to tackle the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL. While it has suffered some close losses, Atlanta has had its share of close wins that could have gone the other way. The Falcons fall into a negative situation where we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 in the second half of the season after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a losing team. This situation is 56-23 ATS (70.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (259) Arizona Cardinals |
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11-24-16 | Redskins +9 v. Cowboys | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 52 h 31 m | Show |
Dallas continues its dominating run as it has now won and covered nine straight games. The Cowboys were fortunate with the cover last week on a late field goal and because of the run, linesmakers have to keep making adjustments and now they are favored by the most they have been all season. Washington is coming off a pair of wins following its London trip and a bye week. This is the last opportunity to close the gap in the division as a win here gets the Redskins to within a game and a half while a loss here would make it a 3.5-game deficit and the loss of head-to-head tiebreaker. These teams played back in September with Washington closing as a 3.5-point favorite so we are seeing a massive line change in the second meeting. Sure Dallas is 8-0 since that first meeting but Washington is 6-1-1 over the same stretch and the two non-wins could have been victories as the Redskins outgained both Detroit and Cincinnati. Washington is a better team than Baltimore yet is getting a bigger number than the Ravens. Dallas has played the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far and with Washington being 2-1-1 on the road, this is the first time this season the Cowboys are playing a team with a winning road record. 10* (109) Washington Redskins |
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11-24-16 | Vikings +2.5 v. Lions | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -106 | 48 h 31 m | Show |
Minnesota snapped its four-game losing streak with a win over Arizona last Sunday and while it was a much needed win, it was not overly impressive as the Vikings were outgained by 73 yards. They returned an interception 100 yards for a touchdown and returned a kickoff 104 yards for a touchdown and those were the obvious differences. Still, they are in good shape to start another winning streak. Detroit has won two straight and five of its last six games to keep pace in the division as the Lions remain tied with Minnesota at 6-4. This is a rare game on Thanksgiving for the Lions that actually means something as a win here not only gives them the lead but also gives them the tiebreaker by virtue of the 2-0 season sweep. However, this team is overrated right now as Detroit has been outgained in six of its last seven games and the stats tell the story as the offense is ranked No. 25 in total yards while the defense is ranked No. 19 in total yards. While the Minnesota offense is dead last in the league, the defense is ranked No. 3 overall and No. 2 in points allowed. That defense is a difference maker and that will be the case here. The Vikings are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (107) Minnesota Vikings |
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11-21-16 | Texans +6 v. Raiders | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The Raiders are listed as the home team here and are favored at a home team price, maybe even more, but this is a neutral site game with huge value on the side of the Texans. As expected, this line has risen a bunch as it opened at 4.5 and has gone up two points in some places which is a great reason for not taking this game early in the week based on the expected line movement. Time off can be a momentum killer and that can certainly be the case with the Raiders tonight. Oakland has won three straight games and six of its last seven and because of the Chiefs loss yesterday, the Raiders have sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Houston is only a game worse than Oakland but the line is not taking that into consideration. The Texans have won their last two games and are a game and a half up in the AFC South. While the host is 8-1 in the nine Houston games, that cannot be taken into consideration here with the game being played in Mexico. The Texans are a bad matchup for the potent Raiders offense as they have yielded the third fewest passing scores (8) and passing yards per game (196.8) in the NFL. Oakland has outgained only two opponents this season and will have trouble in adding to that tonight. 10* (475) Houston Texans |
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11-20-16 | Packers +3 v. Redskins | Top | 24-42 | Loss | -120 | 54 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Play. Washington will be out for some payback following a loss to the Packers in the playoffs last season and under normal circumstances, we could by that. This is not a normal circumstance however. Washington defeated the Vikings last week after blowing a 14-0 lead but was able to win the second half 12-0 with four field goals. It is hard to get a grasp on this team as the Redskins have had narrow wins and narrow losses and even a tie in there. One thing we do know is that Green Bay cannot afford a fourth straight loss. The NFC playoff race is pretty wide open still will 11 teams possessing four or five wins. The Packers need to turn this around and this is the spot to do it with a third straight road gamed looming at Philadelphia next Monday night. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, with a losing record. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Redskins are 9-25-2 ATS in their last 36 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (473) Green Bay Packers |
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11-20-16 | Cardinals v. Vikings -2.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 47 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL November Game of the Month. We have played on the Vikings the last two weeks and bad fortunes arose both times in the kicking game. Minnesota has now lost four straight games, covering none of those, after a 5-0 straight up and ATS start. The offense played a lot better last week than it did against Detroit as Sam Bradford had a solid game with the exception of an interception. Arizona is not nearly the same team that went 13-3 last season despite loads of talent on both sides of the ball. The Cardinals are not executing when they have to as they are outgaining most of their opponents but scores are closer than they should be and some resulting in outright losses. This is just the fourth road game of the season for Arizona, the first three resulting in losses at Buffalo and Carolina and an ugly win in San Francisco. Something has to give in this one with the Cardinals on a three-game winless ATS streak and we give a big edge to the home team. Arizona is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games when playing against a team with a winning record while Minnesota is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. 10* (460) Minnesota Vikings |
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11-20-16 | Bucs +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 60 m | Show |
After a 7-2 start to the season, Kansas City is an incredible 17-2 in its last 19 regular season games and 18-3 in its last 21 games after a 1-5 start to last season. This includes a perfect 10-0 record at home leaving many of us scratching our heads on how they are accomplishing this. The Chiefs are getting outgained by 33.3 ypg and while a bulk of that came in one game against Jacksonville, they have been outgained in six of nine games including four wins. Having the best turnover margin in the NFL is the reason they are having success in the win column. Tampa Bay is right in the thick of the NFC playoff race and win here gets the Buccaneers back to .500. Tampa Bay is 3-1 on the road but surprisingly, it is getting more points here than 2-7 Jacksonville did just three weeks ago. The Buccaneers too have been outgained in the majority of their games but have had a knack for keeping things close. Kansas City has failed to cover both games when favored by a touchdown and Tampa Bay is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games and 23-11 ATS in its last 34 road games against teams with a winning home record. Additionally, the Chiefs are 0-7 in their last seven games following an ATS win. 10* (455) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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11-20-16 | Bears +7.5 v. Giants | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 47 h 59 m | Show |
This is another line that makes absolutely no sense. The Bears, while they were blown out, ended up being favored in Tampa Bay last week and are now getting over a touchdown against the Giants. That is saying that New York is 10 points better than Tampa Bay and that is not the case at all, not even close. While Chicago is just 2-7, it has outgained five of nine opponents and is outgaining opponents on average overall. Turnovers have been the story which is always the case when stats do not line up with wins or losses. The Giants are sitting at 6-3 which is the third best record in the NFC thanks to four straight wins. All of those games could have been lost so give them credit for showing the ability to win in close situations but now they are completely overvalued. This is the most they have been favored by since Week Five of last season when they were favored by 7.5 points over San Francisco and snuck out a three-point win. Chicago falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg, after allowing 35 points or more last game. This situation is 50-22 ATS (69.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (457) Chicago Bears |
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11-20-16 | Ravens +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
Dallas is on a huge roll right now but everyone know that thanks to the media talking about it all the time. Clearly this is a great team but like the Giants, they are now hitting the other side of pricing and that means overpriced. The Cowboys have rarely been favored by a touchdown or more of late but now they are laying that size of a number to a very underrated team. Dallas has won and covered eight straight games and are now once again America's Team at the betting window. The Ravens picked up a big win over Pittsburgh two weeks ago and followed that up with an easy win over Cleveland last Thursday giving them a little extra time off for this one. Baltimore leads the NFL in total defense and is tied for third in points allowed at just 17.8 so this will be easy going for Dallas in the least bit. All four of the Baltimore losses have been by eight points or less and by an average of just 4.8 ppg. Here, we play on Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record playing another winning team. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (463) Baltimore Ravens |
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11-17-16 | Saints v. Panthers -3 | Top | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
New Orleans got hosed last week following a blocked extra point that would have given it the lead late and the subsequence return for Denver that was upheld despite Will Parks stepping out of bounds. Whether or not the Saints would have won in overtime is the question but nonetheless, that was a devastating loss and one that will be difficult to recover from. Carolina lost a heartbreaker as well as it blew a 17-0 lead against Kansas City by allowing 20 unanswered points. The Panthers outplayed the Chiefs as they won the yardage battle by 85 yards while forcing four field goals. The difference was turnovers as a late fumble allowed the game winning field goal while an interception return was the only touchdown for Kansas City. Remaining home is the key factor for the Panthers and they will have to take advantage of that with a pair of tough road games coming up. Carolina will be out for payback as well after losing to the Saints by a field goal last month. Carolina falls into a great situation based on the revenge angle where we play on favorites that are revenging a loss by seven points or less, off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Carolina is 35-11 ATS revenging a loss where the opponent scored 28 or more points while going 18-4 ATS in its last 22 home games against teams averaging 375 or more ypg. 10* (310) Carolina Panthers |
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11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
The Bengals are coming off a bye week following a tie against the Redskins in London. They are now 3-4-1 on the season but are just a game behind the Ravens in the AFC North while tied in the loss column. While they do have a losing record, they are outgaining opponents by an average of 17 ypg. Coming off games in London, it seems predicable that teams would be tired from the travel even with a bye week sandwiched in there but that has not been the case. With the Washington win yesterday, teams are 10-0-1 ATS in the last 11 games following a trip over the pond. This includes a Giants cover against the Eagles last week following their game against the Rams but that was a deceptive win and cover. New York was outgained by 141 total yards but won thanks to bad coaching decisions by Philadelphia. It was actually the fourth time in five games that the Giants have been outgained yet they are still 3-2 over that stretch and a 0-5 record instead is not unrealistic. The five wins have come by an average of only 4.0 ppg and on the season, New York is getting outgained by over 31 ypg. Here, we play against home teams that are averaging 70 or less rushing ypg, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 23-7 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Cincinnati is 16-2 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game. 10* (275) Cincinnati Bengals |
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11-13-16 | Seahawks +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 57 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Night Primetime Play. While the Seahawks have the second best record in the NFC, many people are down on them as they have not looked very good in doing so. They have been outgained in four straight games and that is due to the offense which has not been very efficient but that changes here as the Patriots defense is not that strong. On the flip side, the Seattle defense is as good as promised as it is ranked No. 9 in total defense and No. 3 in scoring defense. Tom Brady has been lights out since his return from a four-game suspension but he has not faced a defense of this caliber yet. And while all four wins have been blowouts, the Patriots have had the luxury of facing Landry Jones and Charlie Whitehurst which has padded the already average defensive numbers. In their last home game against Cincinnati, the Patriots were favored by the same amount of points as they are here and the Bengals cannot be compared to Seattle. Since Russell Wilson became the starting quarterback, the Seahawks have lost 22 games and only two have been by more than a touchdown. Going back, the Seahawks are 28-9 ATS in their last 37 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. 10* (273) Seattle Seahawks |
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11-13-16 | Cowboys v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. After a 4-1 start, the Steelers have lost three straight games and are now a half-game behind Baltimore in the AFC North. Ben Roethlisberger made his return last week and there was visible rust as he was basically game-day decision and came in with limited preparation time. Now he has had a full week of practice with the first team and will be in much better shape physically as well. After Tony Romo went down, no one Dallas a chance but it has been a huge surprise thanks to the play of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys have reeled off seven straight wins and covers including four on the road. Two of those were against Cleveland and San Francisco however and this will not be the biggest road test of the season. Because of the opposite runs, we are laying a shorter than anticipated price and just below a key number which adds more value to it. While coming off a divisional loss can be deflating to some teams, that will not be the case for the Steelers because the skid goes back further and all with an unhealthy Roethlisberger. And how much has it affected Pittsburgh in the past? Not much as the Steelers are 15-2 ATS in their last 17 home games off a divisional loss as a favorite. 10* (272) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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11-13-16 | Vikings +2.5 v. Redskins | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -104 | 49 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Game of the Week. We played on the Vikings last week and it was an unfortunate loss for them as a missed extra point, a blocked field goal and a Detroit 58-yard field goal sent the game into overtime which they eventually lost. That was the third straight loss for Minnesota and just like that, it is being written off. This is exactly the time to ride the Vikings however as we can buy them low. Washington is coming off its bye week following its game in London where it tied Cincinnati. Following four straight wins, the Redskins are 0-1-1 in their last two games and while heading home may seem like the way to get back into the win column, they are just 2-2 at home this season. As mentioned last week, the Vikings have a new offensive coordinator after Norv Turner resigned and while it did not do much good last Sunday, the additional week heading into Washington will be important. Minnesota falls into a solid contrarian rushing situation where we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season that are averaging 3.5 or fewer ypc going up against teams allowing 4.5 or more ypc, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (261) Minnesota Vikings |
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11-13-16 | Falcons v. Eagles +2 | Top | 15-24 | Win | 100 | 49 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Falcons started the season 4-1 and after a couple close losses out west, they have won their last two games including a win at Tampa Bay last Thursday. Because of that, they get a little extra rest but can almost negate that because of the travel aspect on both ends of it. Matt Ryan is having an MVP season but the defense is still a work in progress so Atlanta has been fortunate that Ryan has been there to bail out the stop unit. That should not be the case today as the Eagles are desperate for a victory after losses in four of their last five games. They have really only played one bad game which came against Washington as the other three losses were all winnable. The schedule did not help matter as four of those five games were on the road. Philadelphia is 3-0 at home including impressive wins over Pittsburgh and Minnesota so this will only add to it. Here, we play against road favorites after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 on the season. Despite the solid run, the Falcons are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as favorites and they are in that role after opening as underdogs. Bad line move. 10* (260) Philadelphia Eagles |
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11-10-16 | Browns +8 v. Ravens | Top | 7-28 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Baltimore got itself back into the AFC North race by defeating Pittsburgh to pull into a tie with the Steelers for first place at 4-4. It has been an up and down year for the Ravens which opened the season 3-0, none of which were dominant victories, and then dropped four straight before the win last week. Baltimore has now been outgained in four straight games. The Browns disaster of a season continues as they were thoroughly outplayed last week against the Cowboys. As mentioned last week, they have been extremely competitive in half of their games while getting bullied around by some of the elite teams like Dallas and New England. Baltimore is far from an elite team. Cleveland could have won the first meeting as it built a 20-0 lead only to see it completely disappear in the 25-20 loss. A blocked extra point returned for two points really turned the game as did a shoulder injury to Browns quarterback Josh McCown. We have two contrarian situations on our side. First, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on road underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses, in November games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (109) Cleveland Browns |