Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-26-13 | Texas +2 v. TCU | Top | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 97 h 42 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #165 Take Texas Longhorns over TCU Horned Frogs (Saturday 7:30 pm Fox Sports 1) Top College Football Play of the Weekend. We will fade the Horned Frogs for a second straight week with our top selection in college football. If you read my article this week, you will know how Oklahoma State should have beaten TCU by 30 points last week but 4 turnovers and 2 missed field goals from under 35 yards did them in. Texas has a much better offense than does Oklahoma State especially now since they are healthy. It was easy to pile on Texas earlier this season with Mack Brown being all but fired before his big victory over Oklahoma. But that fact was Texas was banged up especially without Daje Johnson. Texas is getting healthy and their defense has shown improvement under new DC Greg Robinson. The same cannot be said for TCU, as this team is just lost without QB Casey Pachall. TCU had just 325 yards of total offense and 69 of them came on a fluke pass play last week. They scored just 10 points in that game despite creating 4 turnovers against the Pokes. Texas is 20-2 all time against TCU and the Horns have covered 14 of those 22 games (1 push). TCU has a rock solid defense, but if Texas does not turn over the football, they will win this game straight-up. Getting points is just icing on the cake!
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10-26-13 | Tulsa -2.5 v. Tulane | 7-14 | Loss | -112 | 73 h 43 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #151 Take Tulsa Hurricanes over Tulane Green Wave (Saturday 3:30 pm) Tulane is 5-2 and Tulsa is 2-4 yet the road team is favored in this game. That should tell you all you need to know, as Tulsa is a traditional powerhouse in Conference USA and Tulane is a traditional bottom feeder. Tulsa lost a lot of talent from 2012, but nonetheless, they beat the Green Wave 45-7 last year holding them to just 7 yards rushing. In fact Tulsa has won and covered 8 straight games against Tulane. Does a year make that much difference? I do not think so. Tulsa is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 Conference USA games. Tulane is 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games following a victory in their previous game.
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10-26-13 | Toledo v. Bowling Green -3.5 | 28-25 | Loss | -115 | 92 h 39 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #200 Take Bowling Green Falcons over Toledo Rockets (Saturday 2:30 pm ESPN 3) The Falcons are my sleeper team to win the MAC and they currently sit at 3-0 in conference play after a tough setback last week in nonconference play against Mississippi State. The home team has 12 of the last 15 match-ups for the Peace Pipe Trophy (11-3-1 ATS). Bowling Green scores over 30 points per game and only gives up 17 points per game. The Rockets are 1-3 in road games this season with their only victory coming against Central Michigan. Toledo is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a victory. Bowling Green has covered 12 of their last 16 games.
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10-25-13 | Boise State +7.5 v. BYU | 20-37 | Loss | -112 | 73 h 15 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #109 Take Boise State Broncos over BYU Cougars (Friday 8 pm ESPN) Both teams have suspect defenses and explosive offenses. The line is this big since QB Joe Southwick is out, but I was never really a big fan of his. It seemed like every game QB Southwick would have a ton of competitions, very little passing yards, and also throw a key interception that would put his team behind the 8-ball. Boise State is always good value as an underdog and they have won the three match-ups with the Mormons including 2012 by a score of 7-6. Taysom Hill is a player especially with his legs, but this Bronco defense has improved since they were shell-shocked against Washington in Week 1. Since BYU beat Texas, they really should be unbeaten on the season but they suffered shaky losses to Virginia and Utah (at home). Boise State has an outstanding coach in Chris Petersen. I believe QB Grant Hedrick surprises people in this game. Boise State is 25-9 ATS in their last 34 road games. BYU is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a victory in their previous affair.
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10-19-13 | Oregon State -10 v. California | 49-17 | Win | 100 | 103 h 4 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #347 Take Oregon State Beavers over California Golden Bears (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN 2) We went against Cal last week in a similar starting time and expect a similar result again on Saturday. Oregon State had nothing to play for last year when they faced Cal at the end of the season and still beat them by a score of 62-14. The Bears are allowing 43.7 points per game and thus we will be able to cover this big number on the road. Cal did a good job stopping the UCLA running attack last week, but still lost by 27 points and expect the Beavers to put it up in the air early and often. Oregon State has covered 4 straight games in Berkeley and it will be 5 for 5 early Sunday morning!
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10-19-13 | USC v. Notre Dame -2.5 | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 100 h 60 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #384 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over USC Trojans (Saturday 7:30 pm NBC) A night game is what we have in store for this annual match-up. The Trojans showed some life last week against Arizona with a quick start, but still had to hang on for a victory against a bad team. Notre Dame is coming an impressive victory against Arizona State in their last outing, a Sun Devil team that put up 62 points on this same Trojan team. All the sharp money seems to be coming on USC, but I just do not believe that is warranted. Coach Ed Oregeron did not win any big games at Ole Miss and I do not believe it will start at USC. Just because people thought USC would be good at the start of the season does not mean you cannot jump on their sinking jump. Notre Dame at home gets the job done.
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10-19-13 | UCLA v. Stanford -5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 96 h 57 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #382 Take Stanford Cardinal over UCLA Bruins (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN 2) The Cardinal have been shell-shocked after their disappointing performance in Utah last week and now find themselves on the outside looking in when it comes to a BCS Bowl game. This is a must win game in order to right the ship, but they will have their hands full with a very talented UCLA roster. That being said, I expect Stanford to open up the play calling in this game and allow Kevin Hogan to win this game. UCLA was one dimensional last week against California rushing for just 78 yards and that plays right into the hands of Stanford. The Cardinal have a strong pass rush and I just do not see how UCLA will be able to run the football if they could not do it last week against Cal. UCLA is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games played during the month of October. Stanford is 19-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 28 PAC-12 games. If Stanford plays to win, they will emerge victorious by double digits.
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10-19-13 | Kent State v. South Alabama -7 | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #360 Take South Alabama Jaguars -6.5 over Kent State Golden Flashes (Saturday 3 pm ESPN 3) It is always hard to jump out of conference at this point in the season, but that is exactly what faces both of these teams. Kent State had a tremendous 2012 season, but things have not gone well thus far in 2013. They dropped a tough game to Ball State last week, and I do not believe that they will be up for this game. This is also the Golden Flashes fifth road game in the last six weeks. This is just too much for this team to overcome. South Alabama has covered four straight games. Kent State is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 nonconference games.
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10-19-13 | Colorado State v. Wyoming -6.5 | 52-22 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 34 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #338 Take Wyoming Cowboys over Colorado State Rams (Saturday 2 pm) The Cowboys have been playing lackluster since pounding Air Force four weeks ago and I really feel that they are due for a breakout performance and we will lay the wood with them on Saturday. Wyoming does not really have a strong defense and thus the Rams will be able to move the football on them; however, I just do not believe CSU can keep pace with QB Brett Smith for 60 minutes. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS and 3-1 straight-up in the last 4 Border War meeting. The home team has covered three straight games. Never like to lay a ton of points in a rivalry, but the Pokes will outscore their way to a victory in this game.
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10-19-13 | TCU v. Oklahoma State -7 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 93 h 31 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #380 Take Oklahoma State Cowboys over TCU Horned Frogs (Saturday 12 pm FOX) Big 12 Game of the Year. The Cowboys have much better talent than how they have been playing this season and I expect that they are due for a breakout performance and it will come on Saturday. The Horned Frogs are well coached but they just do not have the talent this year especially to be competitive in the Big 12. I do not believe that this team will be bowl eligible come December and this is one game they have no business keeping it close. In the meeting last year, the Pokes started off terrible and still won in Fort Worth by 22 points. Oklahoma State is 21-8 as a home favorite including 6-0 in 2012. They have great defensive backs that can play man coverage and allow the front seven to blitz at will. TCU is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a victory. Oklahoma State is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.
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10-17-13 | Miami (Florida) v. North Carolina +335 | 27-23 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 2 m | Show | |
Take North Carolina (Money Line) over Miami (7:45 pm ESPN)
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10-12-13 | California v. UCLA Bruins -24.5 | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 100 h 25 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #166 Take UCLA Bruins over California Golden Bears (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN 2) The Bruins have been dominate this season scoring 48 points per game and that will allow them to cover this big number tonight against Cal. UCLA has played just two home games this season and they have won them both by an average of 42 points per game. The Bears have a new coaching staff and their defense has suffered under this new regime giving up 45 points per game (125th in the Nation). Cal is 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games overall. UCLA is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 PAC-12 games. Usually do not like to lay this many points in a conference game; however, this is a battle of David vs. Goliath.
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10-12-13 | East Carolina v. Tulane +10 | 33-36 | Win | 100 | 93 h 22 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #170 Take Tulane Green Wave over East Carolina Pirates (Saturday 3:30 pm) The play presents great value with a home underdog. The Green Wave are a much better team playing inside the dome and they have covered 6 of their 9 meetings with East Carolina. The home team has covered the spread in the last four meetings and we expect that to be the case again on Saturday. Tulane has a famous name as their quarterback in Nick Montana. He has already thrown for 10 touchdowns on the season and expect him to have a monster game on Saturday. Both teams allow around 25 points per game and thus getting around double digits it too good to pass up. East Carolina is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. Tulane is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
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10-12-13 | San Jose State v. Colorado State -3.5 | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 22 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #176 Take Colorado State Rams over San Jose State Spartans (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS Sports Network) I truly believe that the Rams are starting to figure things out and I expect them to win their second straight game at home against an inferior opponent. The Spartans have a new coach and they move into a much better conference, the MWC compared to the now defunct WAC. They still have talent on offense but this will be their second straight road game after playing Hawaii last week (jet lag). Colorado State is 15-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 games after accumulating 200 or more yards rushing in their previous game. The Spartans have already played 4 road games this season and that eventually catches up with teams.
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10-12-13 | Florida v. LSU -7 | Top | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 93 h 25 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #160 Take LSU Tigers over Florida Gators (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) This is a match-up of teams that will likely finish close to the top of their respective divisions but will likely not win them. LSU has made great strides on offense under new OC Cam Cameron scoring over 45 points per game. Florida is without their starting quarterback in Jeff Driskel but one must remember that they also lost DE Dominique Easley. I fully expect QB Zach Mettenberger to pick this team apart. LSU does not have the same defense as they did in past years; however, Florida just does not have the offensive firepower to match points with LSU. There is no reason that Florida should not be undefeated at this point since they schedules was super easy thus far, but they lost to Miami and really have not dominated in any game that they played this season. Florida is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. LSU is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a victory of more than 20 points in their previous game. Take the home chalk in this affair.
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10-12-13 | Indiana v. Michigan State -9 | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 90 h 57 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #114 Take Michigan State Spartans over Indiana Hoosiers (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2) If QB Connor Cook plays like he did last week against a much better defense in Iowa, the Spartans should have no problem winning this game by double digits. The Hoosiers have made strides on offense, but they still have a terrible defense. This will be by far and away the toughest defense Indiana has seen this season and I do not expect them to have much success moving the football on them, especially on the road. Indiana is coming off an impressive victory against Penn State last week, but all that really did was keep this line 4 points shorter than what it should be. Michigan State allows just over 13 points per game. Michigan State is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played during the month of October. Indiana is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a victory in their previous game. That tells you that the Hoosiers do not handle prosperity well.
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10-05-13 | Washington Huskies v. Stanford -7.5 | 28-31 | Loss | -103 | 57 h 55 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #382 Take Stanford Cardinal over Washington Huskies (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN) The PAC-12 North is certainly much strong than the south division this season. It is still a three team race in the north between Oregon, Stanford, and Washington and two of those teams are set to do battle in Palo Alto this evening. We will side with the home team, as they have been coming on strong on late and they have won all 4 games by double digits. Washington is strong on offense but they remind me a little of Arizona State and I do not believe they will be able to hold up on defense against the Cardinal. Stanford also has revenge on their minds, as Washington beat them last season for one of their two losses (QB Kevin Hogan did not play much in this game). Washington is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. Stanford is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.
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10-05-13 | Ohio State -6.5 v. Northwestern | 40-30 | Win | 100 | 91 h 37 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #407 Take Ohio State Buckeyes over Northwestern Wildcats (Saturday 8 pm ABC) This is a landmark game for the Northwestern program, as they have a chance to reach heights they have not seen since the mid-1990s. That being said I do not believe that they will be up to that challenge. Ohio State got QB Braxton Miller back last week and played outstanding against Wisconsin throwing 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. Ohio State is 28-1 lifetime against Northwestern and they have covered 4 straight times winning by an average of 43 points. Northwestern is much improved but they are not ready for the big time. Lay the points with the better team. Ohio State is 48-20 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 70 Big 10 games.
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10-05-13 | Louisiana Tech v. UTEP | 38-35 | Loss | -108 | 54 h 56 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #406 Take UTEP Miners over Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Saturday 7:30 pm CBS Sports Network) These are two bad teams but the home team has much more talent than does the visitor. The Bulldogs are a solid 9-3 team last year that did not go to a bowl game but they lost everybody (including coaches) and are just a shell of their former selves. La Tech gave up 414 yards to Army last week and this will be their third straight game away from Ruston. La Tech is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. UTEP is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when scoring 40 or more points in their previous game.
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10-05-13 | New Mexico State v. New Mexico -8.5 | 17-66 | Win | 100 | 90 h 43 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #378 Take New Mexico Lobos over New Mexico State Aggies (Saturday 7 pm) This battle of New Mexico features two terrible teams; however, the Lobos just more talent than New Mexico State. This is especially true on the defensive side of the football, as the Aggies are giving up 300 yards per game on the ground. We used the Aggies as a selection last week and needed to hang on in the second half, as they were wore down and hanging on by a thread against San Diego State. The only reason this is not a top play is because of the in-state rivalry, but all the signs point to a route by the home team. New Mexico State is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Coach Bob Davie gets the troops in line for this battle of bums.
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10-05-13 | Texas State Bobcats +11 v. Louisiana-Lafayette | 24-48 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 38 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #373 Take Texas State Bobcats over Louisiana Rajin
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10-05-13 | Oregon v. Colorado +39 | 57-16 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 43 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #346 Take Colorado Buffaloes over Oregon Ducks (Saturday 6 pm PAC-12 Network) The Ducks may be the best team in the country but this is still too many points against a conference foe. Considering Oregon really lets off the gas in the second half, it would not surprise me if Colorado scores some late touchdowns to get this around a 25-point deficit. Colorado did make the right decision in making a coaching change last year and they are 2-1 this season despite a bad performance last week against Oregon State in windy weather conditions. For whatever reason this game reminds me a lot of Oklahoma State
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10-05-13 | Georgia Tech v. Miami (Florida) -4.5 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 72 h 36 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #334 Take Miami Hurricanes over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3:30 pm ESPN U) The Yellow Jackets are one dimensional and they got exposed against Virginia Tech and I do not believe that they will be able to keep this game close. Miami has won 4 straight games against Georgia Tech including last year as a 13-point underdog. Miami has allowed just 12.5 points per game behind a rock solid defense. Georgia Tech is 2-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games played during October. Miami is 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games overall.
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10-05-13 | Ohio v. Akron +6 | 43-3 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 39 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #400 Take Akron Zips over Ohio Bobcats (Saturday 2 pm ESPN 3) I really have to hand it to Terry Bowden, as he has completely turned around this program to the point where they are competitive on a consistent basis. The next step for them is to actually win a game and I believe it will happen this week at Infocision Stadium. Akron played well last week against Bowling Green and should have covered the spread where it not for a second half rally by the Falcons. This will only be the second road game of the season for the Bobcats and I do not believe they will be able to run their way to success in this game. Ohio U is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Bobcats are a completely different team on the road and that will again be evident on Saturday afternoon.
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10-05-13 | Michigan State v. Iowa | Top | 26-14 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 45 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #316 Take Iowa Hawkeyes over Michigan State Spartans (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2) Top College Play of the Weekend. Many people believed that Kirk Ferentz would be shown the door after their opening loss of the season to Northern Illinois, but the Hawkeyes have rebounded nicely winning four straight games including two against BCS Conference teams. What this play comes down to is that Iowa has a much better offense than does Michigan State. As we saw last week with USC, sooner or later the defense will cave in when playing good teams and in order for Michigan State to be successful they must be able to move the football on offense. Had the Michigan State offense done anything against Notre Dame they would have won that game but that was not the case. This team is just lost without Le
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10-04-13 | Nevada +200 v. San Diego State | 44-51 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
As long as Cody Fajardo is under center this Nevada team knows it always has a chance to win. No, this Nevada team doesn't play well away from home. But I am not sure how good this San Diego State team really is right now. They have lost a ton of talent to graduation the last two years. Nevada has revenge for a wild OT loss last year and I think that they will get it with an outright winner here. The Wolfpack did not play well against Air Force last week. But they pulled it together late and still managed to earn a win. San Diego State, on the other hand, is the same group that struggled with New Mexico State and lost to Eastern Illinois outright in the opener. In fact, they didn't just lose to EIU they were blown out 40-19. I'm not really sure that SDSU should be favored over anyone at this point. We'll grab the money line in this game.
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09-28-13 | USC v. Arizona State -4 | 41-62 | Win | 100 | 56 h 56 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #150 Take Arizona State Sun Devils over USC Trojans (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN 2) The Trojans have no offense to speak of, and their home-heavy schedule is about to take a turn for the worse. This will be the first hostile environment that they play in this year (no, I do not count Honolulu), and they are facing an angry team in Arizona State. The Sun Devils gave away the game early last week against Stanford but did come on late in the fourth quarter to make that loss somewhat respectable. In reality, all that game did was help make this spread five points lower than what it should be.
The difference in this game will come down to USC |
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09-28-13 | San Diego State v. New Mexico State +18 | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 121 h 14 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #196 Take New Mexico State Aggies over San Diego State Aztecs (8 pm ESPN 3) The Aztecs are just a shell of their former self since Brady Hoke left for Michigan and currently sit at 0-3 on the season after blowing a 13-point lead to a so-so Oregon State team last week in San Diego. Now they travel east to Las Cruces to play a scrappy Aggies squad that is looking for their first win on the season as well. Much like San Diego State, the Aggies have played a brutal schedule thus far with UCLA, Texas, & Minnesota accounting for three of their four losses. But San Diego State is not in the league of those three teams and thus things should be much easier tonight. That being said, this is just too many points to be given on the road for the Aztecs. San Diego State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 nonconference games. Take the points in this battle of bums.
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09-28-13 | Air Force v. Nevada -10 | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -117 | 53 h 29 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #188 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over Air Force Falcons (Saturday 8 pm CBS Sports Network) College Football Game of the Year. The line was off the board until Wednesday and opened at -7 for Nevada. This number was quickly bet up to where it is now so that should tell you where the smart money is going. The Force has been picked apart by good quarterbacks in the MWC and now is Cody Fajardo
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09-28-13 | Wyoming -10.5 v. Texas State Bobcats | 21-42 | Loss | -106 | 96 h 39 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #179 Take Wyoming Cowboys over Texas State (Saturday 7 pm Longhorn Network) We are pretty much going to play Wyoming blind against teams from weak mid-major conferences, as this team can score points at will and light up the scoreboard for 60 minutes. If you read my article this week you realize that Wyoming could have scored 70 points last week against Air Force, but pulled back in the second half. QB Brett Smith has 14 touchdowns on the season and just is one of the most accurate passers in college football. Texas State has played a super easy schedule thus far with their wins coming against bottom feeder teams in SMU & Prairie View A & M. They have a coach you might recognize in Dennis Franchione but they were just 4-8 last year and got blown out by Texas Tech this year. Wyoming has a better offense than does Texas Tech and despite a shaky defense, I just do not believe the Bobcats can match point for point with the Pokes. Wyoming is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games.
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09-28-13 | Army v. Louisiana Tech +2 | 35-16 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 36 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #152 Take Louisiana Tech Bulldogs over Army Black Knights (Saturday 4 pm FS1) This is not the same 2012 version of Louisiana Tech, as they have a different coach and lost many of their key players from last year
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09-28-13 | Akron v. Bowling Green -14.5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 91 h 6 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #170 Take Bowling Green Falcons over Akron Zips (Saturday 2:30 pm ESPN 3) Yes Akon almost beat Michigan two weeks ago, but as we saw and bet on last week, Michigan is just not that good. Now they are set to open conference play on the road against one of the top teams in the MAC. The Falcons are 3-1 on the season and all three victories have come over today
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09-28-13 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia +18.5 | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 89 h 42 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #190 Take West Virginia Mountaineers over Oklahoma State Cowboys (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) We faded West Virginia last week against Maryland and won that game with ease, but I truly believe this is a complete overreaction to that game and we will gladly gobble up these points since this game is in Morgantown. Remember Coach Holgorsen was the offensive coordinator in Stillwater and thus knows many of the systems that Coach Gundy runs. The problem with West Virginia has been their inept offense that could hardly move the football last week against Maryland. That being said, WVU has played decent on defense allowing just under 20 points per game. OK State is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. West Virginia is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Big 12 games. Take the points at home today in Morgantown.
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09-28-13 | South Carolina v. Central Florida +7.5 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 89 h 39 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #174 Take UCF Golden Knights over South Carolina Gamecocks (Saturday 12 pm ABC) Are the Knights ready to step up? They get to host a big time program in Orlando and I believe that UCF is a top-25 team. That dominated against Penn State in a game that was not as close as the final score would indicate. UCF has some weapons on offense that can threaten this strong Carolina defense. For whatever reason, JaDeveon Clowney just is not producing on defense and seems to be playing not to get hurt in order to maintain his No. 1 pick in the draft status. UCF is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
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09-21-13 | Wyoming -3.5 v. Air Force | Top | 56-23 | Win | 100 | 75 h 46 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #343 Take Wyoming Cowboys over Air Force Falcons (Saturday 10:15 pm ESPN U) Top College Play of the Weekend. Much like our top play last week, revenge will be served on the field, as we side with the better balanced team on Saturday night in Colorado Springs, CO. Coach Christensen was upset at how the game ended last year, a 28-27 victory for the Force and you can be sure his team will be ready to make a statement on Saturday night. But this play just comes down to Air Force not being able to stop the passing attack. They have no pass rush whatsoever accumulating just 1 sack on the season. Boise State and Utah State just picked apart this team with QB Southwick going 27 for 29 and Chuckie Keaton going 32 for 40 with 5 touchdowns. Bad weather kept the Falcons closer to the Broncos last week, but we have a short number to work with backing the road favorite tonight. Wyoming is completing 63% of their passes and throwing for over 316 yards in just three games and one of them came against Nebraska, a team expected to challenge for the Big Ten title. Wyoming is up and coming team that will be bowl eligible this season. They have covered 4 straight against the Falcons and will win this game by double digits. Wyoming is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games. Air Force really feel apart last year toward the end of the season and they are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Force goes down tonight in Colorado Springs.
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09-21-13 | West Virginia v. Maryland -5.5 | 0-37 | Win | 100 | 117 h 13 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #336 Take Maryland Terrapins over West Virginia Mountaineers (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN U) We used Maryland as our big play last week and won the game despite a terrible performance on offense. Maryland moved the football at will against a strong UCONN defense they were just bitten by the turnover bug. This team put up over 500 yards of offense but had 3 turnovers and were just 4 for 15 on third down conversions and 0-2 on fourth down conversions. If they can clean up these things, they will pound West Virginia, a team that is in complete rebuilding mode. Maryland players are sky high at the moment as they are 3-0 and this is a must win game for them to keep their magical ride again. West Virginia is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games against ACC teams. Maryland is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Maryland wins this game by double digits in Baltimore.
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09-21-13 | Michigan State v. Notre Dame -6.5 | 13-17 | Loss | -106 | 96 h 52 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #356 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Michigan State Spartans (Saturday 3:30 pm NBC) Michigan State has been the side to play in this series over the years; however, but the Irish have pounded the Spartans the last two years. That includes a 20-3 victory in East Lansing last year despite Notre Dame being a 6 point underdog. Michigan State did not have an offense last year but did have a really good defense. I just do not see the Spartans being that improved on offense this year to threaten the suspect Irish defense. Notre Dame can score points and I just do not believe that Michigan State will be able to keep pace with them. Michigan State is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on grass. The Irish shutdown the Spartans offense, take care of the football, and win this game comfortably.
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09-21-13 | Tulane v. Syracuse -14.5 | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 93 h 50 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #376 Take Syracuse Orange over Tulane Green Wave (Saturday 12:30 pm ESPN 3) The Orange are ready to pound another mid-major, a team that has a familiar name at quarterback in Nick Montana (son on Joe Montana). Syracuse appears to be a much better potent offense when they made a quarterback change to Terrel Hunt, as he threw three touchdowns against Wagner last week. Tulane is better than in year
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09-21-13 | Vanderbilt v. UMass +32 | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 114 h 44 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #314 Take UMASS Minutemen over Vanderbilt Commodores (Saturday 12 pm ESPNNEWS) We used the Minutemen last week on the road in a hostile environment in Manhattan and will ride them again this week at home against Vanderbilt. UMASS has a decent defense relatively speaking at playing at home will allow their offense to move the football a little bit and enough to keep this game under a 30-point deficit. The Commodes are coming off a hard lose to South Carolina last Saturday. In this game they were down big early but made it only a 10-point game in the second half. I do not expect them to be pumped for this game and thus they will just go through the motions and win this game by 21-25 points. Vanderbilt allowed 284 yards passing and three touchdowns to a so-so South Carolina passing attack and I believe that UMASS will put up the highest point total of the season thus far. The SEC is overrated and we will fade the conference again in this non-conference game.
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09-21-13 | Middle Tenn State v. Florida Atlantic +4 | 42-35 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 20 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #374 Take Florida Atlantic Owls over Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (Saturday 12 pm) This is a battle of two teams not expected to challenge in Conference USA and thus we will side with the home underdog. This will be FAU
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09-14-13 | Notre Dame v. Purdue UNDER 50 | 31-24 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 35 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #182 Take UNDER in Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Purdue Boilermakers (Saturday 8 pm ABC) For some reason, this game gets prime time billing even though Purdue is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten and maybe the country. The Irish could not stop Michigan last week but should have a much easier time with Purdue in Week 3. Purdue has scored just 27 points in two games this season. Notre Dame has gone under the posted total in 18 of their last 26 games (one push). Purdue has gone under the posted total in their last three games against Notre Dame. Play the under and do not worry if Notre Dame can cover this spread.
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09-14-13 | UTEP v. New Mexico State +6.5 | 42-21 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 34 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #184 Take New Mexico State Aggies over UTEP Miners (8 pm) The Miners complete their New Mexico two-step playing the Aggies after facing the Lobos in their opening game. UTEP lost to New Mexico, giving up 42 points, and yet they are favored in this game on the road. The fact remains that UTEP is not a good team and that they have been terrible of late when it comes to ATS. They were 3-9 last year and now have a new coach in Sean Kugler. The Miners have covered just four of their last 18 games. NMSU is nothing to write home about, but they also have a new coach in Doug Martin and are playing as an independent this season. That being said, they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. The Aggies win their home opener straight up, and we collect big in the process as well!
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09-14-13 | Ole Miss v. Texas -2.5 | Top | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 2 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #146 Take Texas Longhorns over Ole Miss Rebels (Saturday 8 pm LHN) These teams appear to be heading in opposite directions, but that being said I just do not believe Ole Miss has the offensive firepower on the ground to threaten this Longhorn defense. Texas was embarrassed last week at BYU giving up over 500 yards rushing and thus fired their defensive coordinator and brought in veteran coach Greg Robinson. The Texas pass defense actually played pretty well and expect an even better pass defense performance this week against Ole Miss.
The two things that make this such a strong play are the fact that Texas is 16-1 at home against non-conference teams since 2007. Also the fact that this same Texas team went into Oxford last year and pounded the Rebels by a score of 66-31 last year. Many of the Rebels same defensive personal will be playing in this game as well. The Rebels can move the football a little of offense, but they just cannot stop teams on defense and thus will not be able to keep pace in this game. Texas does have some injuries but I just believe that is keeping this line three points lower than what it should be. David Ash left the game in the fourth quarter last week against BYU and is questionable for this game (I think he will play) but his back-up Chance McCoy does have a lot of experience playing in big games. Ole Miss also has a few starters banged up in Christian Miller, Aaron Morris, Charles Sawyer (legal), and Denzel Nkemdicke. Texas seems to be inconsistent from week to week, but I am expecting a big bounce back this week similar to what Georgia did one week ago. The Longhorns are talented and experienced and they know that this is a must game in order to avoid having the season slip away from them. Ole Miss still feels the wounds that Texas gave them last year and expect the Longhorns to jump out early and cruise to a victory. Ole Miss is 2-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 games against Big XII teams. Texas is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 450 yards in their previous game. Take the Longhorns and all the drama on Saturday, as they will win this game by double digits. |
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09-14-13 | Maryland -6 v. Connecticut | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 52 h 19 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #127 Take Maryland Terrapins over Connecticut Huskies (Saturday 7:30 pm ESPN3) Non-Conference Game of the Year. Revenge will be best served on the field tonight in Storrs. Maryland suffered numerous injuries last season especially at the quarterback position and every team was able to kick them around. But that will not be the case this season. Maryland is loaded on offense and expect them to light-up the scoreboard all night long against a team that has quit on their coach in 2013. Nobody was real excited about the hiring of Paul Pasqualoni when current Maryland Coach Randy Edsall left Connecticut. Things reached an epic low in week 1 of this season when they lost to Towson State by double digits. The Huskies had a strong defense last season but that is not the case in 2013 as 4 players off of the 2012 defensive squad were NFL draft picks.
This game is all about Coach Randy Edsall, as he struggled through some tough games in his first two years including a loss at home to Connecticut in 2012. He is still angry about that game and will not let off the gas for 60 minutes tonight waiting to show the crowd why he is the all-time winningest coach in UCONN history. UCONN is 2-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games overall. Maryland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Expect Maryland to have a great scouting report since Towson State |
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09-14-13 | Massachusetts Minutemen +38.5 v. Kansas State | 7-37 | Win | 100 | 98 h 37 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #173 Take UMASS Minutemen over Kansas State Wildcats (Saturday 7 pm) UMASS is a terrible team that is just getting used to FBS play. However, the Wildcats are rebuilding this year, and I do not believe that they are good enough to be laying this many points to anybody. They already have a loss on their 2013 resume to a FCS team in North Dakota State. The Minutemen lost to a much better Wisconsin team by 45 points, and I believe they will be able to score on Kansas State. That means the Wildcats will likely have to score over 50 points to cover this spread. Kansas State is 11-23 ATS in their last 34 nonconference games. I see Kansas State winning this game by 28-32 points, giving us the cover.
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09-14-13 | Alabama -7.5 v. Texas A&M | 49-42 | Loss | -101 | 94 h 8 m | Show | |
5 Unit Play. #151 Take Alabama Crimson Tide over Texas A & M Aggies (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) The players for Alabama will never admit it publically; however, they want revenge in a big way against Texas A & M. They want to shut up Johnny Manziel and knock his team out of the national championship picture. I expect them to do it in a big way as the fact remains that Johnny Football just does not have the offensive line or the playmakers around him to compete this year. I expect him to try and do too much and thus turn over the football and give Alabama a short field. The Crimson Tide are coming off a bye week and did not perform very well on offense against Virginia Tech in their opener. I expect AJ McCarron to have a big bounce-back week as he likely has more draft potential than Johnny Football. A & M is the most overrated team in the country this season, and it will show today as they suffer the first of many losses this season by double-digits. Alabama is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games.
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09-14-13 | Louisville -13 v. Kentucky | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 91 h 40 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #117 Take Louisville Cardinals over Kentucky Wildcats (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) The Governor
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09-13-13 | Air Force v. Boise State -23.5 | 20-42 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 40 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #110 Take Boise State Broncos over Air Force Falcons (Friday 8 pm ESPN) We were eyeing the Falcons as a member play for much of last week but pulled it down, and that turned out to be a good decision as they got pounded at home against Utah State. I do not expect things to get any easier tonight against Boise State, a team that has one of the most prolific offenses over the last decade. After their loss to Washington, Boise State got back on track in a big way last week against an FCS team, and I do not expect them to have much opposition against the Falcons this week. Air Force is really reloading on offense this year with only four starters returning. Boise State needs a statement win to get back into the Top 25 rankings, and thus I expect them to put up close to 60 points on the board tonight. Air Force is just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games. Boise State has covered five of their last six games played on Friday.
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09-07-13 | Hawaii +27 v. Oregon State | 14-33 | Win | 100 | 76 h 13 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #367 Take Hawaii Warriors over Oregon State Beavers (Saturday 8 pm PAC-12 Network) Granted, the Beavers are likely pissed off since they lost to Eastern Washington, a FCS team, last Saturday, and many believe that they will take out their frustrations this week against Hawaii. But I am not one of them and believe that this Beavers team is just not that good and will have trouble blowing out any opponent this season. A better USC team was not able to blow out Hawaii last Thursday, and that is how I see this game going as well, a 17-20 point victory for the Beavers. Hawaii has covered 5 of their last 6 games against PAC-12 teams. Oregon State is 8-18 ATS (1 push) in their last 27 games during the month of September.
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09-07-13 | Notre Dame v. Michigan UNDER 51 | 30-41 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 17 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #366 Take UNDER in Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Michigan Wolverines (Saturday 8 pm ESPN) The Irish have been a cash cow with the under for the past couple of years and we will again ride that into the last meeting between these rivals at the Big House in the foreseeable future. Despite Notre Dame scoring two touchdowns in the first five minutes of their game last week, we still easily collected with the under in their match-up against Temple. Notre Dame has a terrible field goal kicker and thus expect them to struggle inside the 30 yard line as points will not be a given. Notre Dame has gone under the posted total in 23 of their last 33 road games (1 push). Enough said, we will not worry about who wins this game and just collect with the under.
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09-07-13 | South Carolina v. Georgia -3 | Top | 30-41 | Win | 100 | 73 h 46 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #326 Take Georgia Bulldogs over South Carolina Gamecocks (Saturday 4:30 pm ESPN) Top College Football Play of the Weekend. Both of these coaches have had trouble winning big games in the past, especially during SEC play. However, I fully believe in my heart Georgia is too good of a team to start the 2013 season 0-2. The Gamecocks may have the best player on the field in Jadeveon Clowney, but I believe Georgia has the next best 3-4 players after the top spot. Neither Clowney nor QB Connor Shaw looked that impressive last Thursday against North Carolina. Georgia was unstoppable on offense last week against Clemson, but they were hampered by penalties and third down conversions. The Dawgs looked lost on defense, but USC does not have a player like Tajh Boyd on offense. Historically, Georgia has dominated the series with South Carolina, going 46-16 (2 ties). Georgia has covered 5 of their last 6 home games. We are aware that WR Malcolm Mitchell is out for season, but I do not expect that to slow down this high-powered offense one bit. Georgia makes a statement in the SEC and wins this game by double-digits!
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09-07-13 | Toledo v. Missouri -17 | 23-38 | Loss | -106 | 72 h 45 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #348 Take Missouri Tigers over Toledo Rockets (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN U) We used the Rockets last week as a selection and got lucky as Toledo looked terrible on offense, and their only saving grace was a terrible offensive performance by Florida and a few key turnovers. Toledo will not be as fortunate in this game as the Tigers pound their second straight opponent in Columbia. Missouri is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 nonconference games. Toledo is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS victory in their previous outing. James Franklin and company win this game by 20+ points!
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09-07-13 | Eastern Michigan v. Penn State -24 | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 68 h 14 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #356 Take Penn State Nittany Lions over Eastern Michigan (Saturday 12 pm BTN) The Lions defense dominated the Orange last week in East Rutherford, and they should have no problems containing this weak Eagles squad. EMU was losing by double digits to Howard last week in the third quarter before a late rally earned them the victory. Penn State suspended their starting quarterback for the first half last week, and thus that allowed Syracuse to stay somewhat close and cover the spread. If Penn State does not turn over the football in this game they will win by 30+ points, and that is how we see this game going. The Eagles are 13-32 ATS in their last 45 nonconference games. Penn State is 5-1 in their last 6 home games. Coach O
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09-07-13 | Cincinnati v. Illinois +8 | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 68 h 18 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #322 Take Illinois Fighting Illini over Cincinnati Bearcats (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2) The Illini do not warrant national TV games, but that will be the case today when they host the Bearcats from Cincinnati. Illinois did not look very impressive last week against Illinois State. However, I expect a much better effort this week against an opponent they know can play a little bit. The weather conditions were not good last week in Champaign as the heat had arrived, but it should be better for Week 2. Cincinnati pounded Purdue, but that game was close at halftime, and Purdue just could not do anything right on offense. Illinois did throw for 400 yards last week and should be able to score points with Cincinnati as well. The Cats have a new coach this year and a new system and are playing in a crappy conference, so nobody will know how good they are until they play Louisville. Coach Beckman is fighting for his job this year and needs a solid performance against an attractive nonconference team. I just do not believe Cincinnati can pound any Big Ten team on the road, and thus we have a solid selection with the Illini. Cincinnati is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a victory of 20 or more points in their previous game.
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09-02-13 | Florida State -10 v. Pittsburgh | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 147 h 19 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #219 Take Florida State Seminoles over Pittsburgh Panthers (Monday 8 pm ESPN) Like the Orange, the Panthers are now members of the ACC, and this will be their first conference game. This would be the worst team to draw as the Seminoles are again loaded with talent. The only issue with Florida State will be the play of their new quarterback, but I expect him to have success since he has talent all around him. Pittsburgh is also breaking in a new quarterback along with six other first-year starters on offense. The Panthers got run over by a so-so Ole Miss team in the Compass Bowl last year, and to me that just shows that they do not have enough speed to play with the upper-echelon teams in college football. Pittsburgh is just 6-13 ATS (1 push) in their last 20 games during the month of September. Many believe Florida State can run the table with their schedule this year, and I expect them to make a statement on Monday.
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08-31-13 | Boise State v. Washington Huskies -3.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 101 h 22 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #210 Take Washington Huskies over Boise State Broncos (Saturday 10 pm Fox Sports 1) Top College Football Play of the Weekend. I hate going against the Broncos as all they do is win games under the Chris Petersen. However, too many factors favor the Huskies in this game. This is not a typical veteran Boise State team as they are really young and undersized on defense. They do still have their quarterback in Joe Southwick. However, he is just not in the same league as Ryan Dinwiddie and Kellen Moore. The MWC does not have many strong teams, and Boise State will win their fair share of games this season. However, I clearly believe that Fresno State is the team to beat.
Moving over to Washington, I believe that this team is in for a monster season, and it will start on Saturday night. They still have their quarterback in Keith Price, and he played much better in his sophomore season than he did in his junior season. I look for him to get back to his stats from two years ago and tear apart this undersized Boise defense. Washington is also back where they belong, at Husky Stadium, as they played at CenturyLink Field last year during renovations. Expect the home crowd to be excited for this game. Finally, these teams met in the Las Vegas Bowl last December and Boise came away with a hard fought 2-point victory. The Huskies have had all offseason to think about that, and you can be sure they will be ready for Boise tonight. This will be a double-digit victory for the home team, and we will collect big in the process. |
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08-31-13 | Washington State +16 v. Auburn | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 98 h 24 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #195 Take Washington State Cougars over Auburn Tigers (Saturday 7 pm ESPN U) Did I miss something on Auburn were they became a good team overnight? Granted, they have a new coach after they fired the coach that won them a National Championship, but they still have the same players that went 3-9 last season. Washington State certainly has their own issues, but Mike Leach has some players to work with, and this team will move the football on offense and will put some points on the board. What this game comes down to is that Auburn should not be favored by this many points against anybody, let alone a BCS Conference team. The Tigers are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games. Auburn wins this game but by just 7-10 points.
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08-31-13 | Temple v. Notre Dame UNDER 53 | 6-28 | Win | 100 | 95 h 56 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #168 Take UNDER in Temple Owls @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Saturday 3:30 pm NBC) The quest to get back to the National Championship Game starts on Saturday afternoon in South Bend, IN. The Irish enter as a big favorite in this game. However, I question that offensive prowess since they will be without QB Everett Golson. The Irish were not that explosive on offense last year either and won numerous close low-scoring games. They still have a strong defense that returns 8 of 11 starters, and I just do not see Temple putting much if any points on the board in this contest. Notre Dame has stayed under the posted total in 20 of their last 27 games played at Notre Dame Stadium.
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08-31-13 | Penn State v. Syracuse +8.5 | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 52 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #200 Take Syracuse Orange over Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) Both teams did better than what the experts believed how they would perform last year, and both now must replace effective quarterbacks. That being said, I believe that this inflated line is about five points too high considering this game is being played in the tri-state area and the Orange have a great following in this area. Most people believe that things will only get worse for Penn State once the scholarship reductions take full effect, and I do not see this team matching last year
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08-31-13 | Toledo +24 v. Florida | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 92 h 44 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #191 Take Toledo Rockets over Florida Gators (Saturday 12:20 pm ESPN Gameplan) For years the MAC has been a conference of haves and have nots, and Toledo has usually been on the top half of the MAC for most of their existence. The Gators laid an egg in their bowl game last year against Louisville and struggled against a much worse MAC team last year in Bowling Green, winning by just 13 points despite being a 29-point favorite. Florida has a ton of injuries and suspensions for this game, and this is just too many points to be laying for a team that is not explosive on offense. Florida is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against MAC teams. Florida wins their opener, but it comes much closer than what the experts believe!
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08-30-13 | Texas Tech v. SMU OVER 59 | 41-23 | Win | 100 | 75 h 30 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #154 Take OVER in Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Southern Methodist Mustangs (Friday 8 pm ESPN) This is just a classic battle between two offensive-minded coaches that like to throw the football. June Jones is still at SMU, and he is known for the run and shoot offense. And Cliff Kingsbury takes over at Texas Tech, where he was a star quarterback under the pass-happy Mike Leach. Texas Tech has gone over the posted total in 5 of their last 6 road games. We will not worry if the Red Raiders can cover this spread and just collect with the over. I expect a long, pass-happy 4 game where both teams score at least 30 points.
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01-07-13 | Alabama v. Notre Dame +10 | Top | 42-14 | Loss | -108 | 104 h 38 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #270 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Alabama Crimson Tide (BCS Championship Game, Monday, 1/7, 8:30 pm ESPN) The last game of the College Football game is the most intriguing as it features two of the most storied programs in college football history. I truly believe that the SEC was overrated this season evident by the fact that Florida got destroyed by Louisville last week and as a whole the SEC is just not as strong as it has been the last decade. If Nick Saban were not the coach of Alabama, this spread will be around 6 points and thus we are getting great value with this selection. All the Notre Dame has done this season is win and it would not surprise me if their defense controls this game again for 60 minutes. It is important that Notre Dame withstand the first quarter and not get blown out. If they accomplish that I believe that they have a great chance to win this game straight up and getting around double digits it too good to pass up. Alabama is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. This game goes down to the wire and the underdog is never in danger of not covering this number.
Notre Dame by 1 |
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01-05-13 | Pittsburgh v. Ole Miss UNDER 53 | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 9 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #266 Take Under in Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Ole Miss Rebels (BBVA Compass Bowl, Saturday, 1/5, 1 pm ESPN) Both teams come in with disappointing seasons and 6-6 records and we expect a low scoring close game between two teams that have offensive deficiencies. The Rebels should find the Panthers much easier to stop compared to some of the strong teams that they face in the SEC. Pittsburgh has gone under the posted total in 6 straight bowl games. Ole Miss has gone under the posted total in 4 of their last 5 games following a victory in their previous game. Assuming there are no defensive or special teams touchdowns, I expect the score of this game be played in the low twenties putting us in great shape to collect with the under.
Play the under. |
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01-01-13 | Wisconsin +7 v. Stanford | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 148 h 46 m | Show | |
5 Unit Play. #255 Take Wisconsin Badgers over Stanford Cardinal (Rose Bowl, 1/1, 5 pm ESPN) The Grand Daddy of them all features two power football teams and we will side with the underdog, as these are very similar teams that like to run the football. Wisconsin has had an up and down season and things appeared to fall apart when Coach Bret Bielema bolted for Arkansas, but all of the assistants are staying for this game and Barry Alvarez is coming out of retirement for a one game stint as head coach. Wisconsin played numerous close games this season and thus I expect them to take this game down to the wire as well. The Badgers drew a big break by not hitting Oregon for this game, as the Cardinal are a much better match-up for them. Stanford starts a freshman quarterback and Wisconsin has a strong defense led by Mike Taylor that can put some pressure on him. Wisconsin has been able to run the football against almost anybody and the Cardinal are not ready for this power attack since most of the teams that they see in the PAC-12 are spread and speed based. Wisconsin is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS victory in their previous game. Coach Alvarez does not lose in the Rose Bowl and that trend holds true yet again.
Wisconsin by 1 |
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01-01-13 | Nebraska +10.5 v. Georgia | 31-45 | Loss | -115 | 144 h 45 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #253 Take Nebraska Cornhuskers over Georgia Bulldogs (Capital One Bowl, 1/1, 1 pm ABC) Both teams are coming off losses in the their respective conference championship and thus are not happy to be playing in this bowl game. Georgia has visions of playing in the BCS Championship Game and Nebraska was all set to head to Pasadena. That being said, Nebraska is a much better team than they showed in the Big Ten Championship Game and I expect them to be hungry in this game. Georgia is not a dominating offensive team and thus they struggled most of the season covering big spreads. Nebraska lives and dies with QB Taylor Martinez and when he is on, he is one of the most dynamic players in college football. He needs to play well and not turn over the football for Nebraska to have a chance and I expect him to accomplish both of those things on Tuesday. Georgia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Nebraska is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Take the points, as this game goes down to the wire.
Nebraska by 2 |
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12-31-12 | Iowa State v. Tulsa +1 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 122 h 14 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #244 Take Tulsa Golden Hurricanes over Iowa State Cyclones (Liberty Bowl, 12/31, 3:30 pm ESPN) Memphis, TN is the site for this match-up between a bad team from the Big 12 and a team from Conference USA. The Cyclones do not deserve a bowl bid since they were just 6-6 on the season and that includes going 3-6 during Big XII play. Iowa State has won just two games since October 7th and they score 10 points less per game than the Golden Hurricanes. Tulsa had an outstanding year going 7-1 during conference play and expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder since they are not getting much respect from the line makers. They will also have revenge on their minds, as this game features a bowl rematch from the regular season where Iowa State beat them by 15 points the first game of the season. These teams have gone in opposite directions since that point and Tulsa is playing much better football as of late. Iowa State is 0-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Tulsa is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS victory in their previous game. Revenge is served on the field and this game means more to Tulsa.
Tulsa by 13 |
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12-29-12 | TCU v. Michigan State +3 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 294 h 8 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #238 Take Michigan State Spartans over TCU Horned Frogs (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, 12/29, 10:15 pm ESPN) Bowl Game of the Year. The Spartans have battled valiantly all season long losing five games by 4 points or less and I fully expect them to get over the hump in this game and close out the season with a victory in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. The Spartans have a rock solid defense that is 10th in the country in points allowed and I expect them to control the Horned Frogs offense that is not as strong as it has been in year
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12-29-12 | Oregon State v. Texas +3 | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 27 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #236 Take Texas Longhorns over Oregon State Beavers (Alamo Bowl, 12/31, 6:45 pm ESPN) The Longhorns had yet another disappointing season under Coach Mack Brown and this is an important game for this program in order to set the tone for a strong performances in 2013. Oregon State had a great resurrection in 2012 going 9-3, a 6 game improvement from last season. Both teams have quarterback issues and thus expect the team that makes the least amount of mistakes to win this game. Texas has a major edge playing this bowl game in their home state and I truly believe that top to bottom the Big-12 was stronger than the PAC-12. Texas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against PAC-12 teams. Oregon State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win in their previous game. This will likely be a close low scoring game but we will side with the under, as we feel they win this game straight-up.
Texas by 6 |
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12-27-12 | Cincinnati v. Duke +7.5 | 48-34 | Loss | -110 | 221 h 17 m | Show | |
5 Unit Play. #220 Take Duke Blue Devils over Cincinnati Bearcats (Belk Bowl, 12/27, 6:30 pm ESPN) The Bearcats are in turmoil at the moment with a coaching change that was controversial, and the fan base is not really excited about getting Tommy Tuberville. Duke got off to a hot start this season and became bowl eligible for the first time since the 1994 season, but did not perform well down the stretch. Duke lost 4 straight games, but all 4 of those teams are stronger than what they will see from Cincinnati. The Big East is by far the worst conference of the 6 BCS leagues, and Cincinnati is not a strong team throwing the football through the air. They made a quarterback change during the season, but I do not believe either one of them is any good. Duke should also have a home crowd advantage as well since this game is well within driving distance for their fans and they are thrilled to be at any bowl game, but the same cannot be said for Cincinnati. Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Duke is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 nonconference games. Duke is happy to be in this bowl game, and it shows in a big way!
Duke by 1 |
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12-22-12 | Washington v. Boise State UNDER 46.5 | 26-28 | Loss | -108 | 98 h 19 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #212 Take Under in Washington Huskies vs. Boise State Broncos (Las Vegas Bowl, 12/22, 3:30 pm ESPN) It is not often you find a total this low in college football, but it is certainly warranted, and I fully expect this to be a low-scoring affair since both teams have strong defenses. The Broncos won 10 games this season but mainly stayed under the radarsince they lost their opening game of the season at Michigan State. They have a rock-solid defense that is giving up just under 15 points per game. The Huskies are coming off a very disappointing performance in the Apple Cup when they blew a big lead against Washington State only to lose in overtime. Washington also has a strong defense that is allowing just under 24 points per game. Washington has gone under the posted total in 4 of their last 5 games against Mountain West teams. Boise State has gone under the posted total in five straight games against teams with a winning record.
Play the Under. |
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12-15-12 | Nevada +10 v. Arizona | 48-49 | Win | 100 | 94 h 57 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play.#201 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over Arizona Wildcats (New Mexico Bowl, Saturday, 12/15, 1 pm ESPN) The 2012-13 College Bowl season officially kicks off on Sunday with a matchup of two high-powered offenses that are expected to light up the scoreboard. The Wolf Pack got off to a hot start, winning 6 of their first 7 games, but has struggled down the stretch, losing 4 of their last 5 games. The two weeks off was much appreciated, and I expect them to put forth a solid effort on Saturday against a team that struggles to stop opponents. The Wildcats have had three weeks off since a disappointing loss to Arizona State at home. And despite being 7-5 on the season, this team actually gives up more points (35 points per game) than they score (30 points per game). Therefore, there is no way Arizona should be laying this many points against a Nevada team that has a offense that is tough to prepare for. Nevada is 3-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 4 games played during the month of December. Arizona is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Mountain West teams. Take the points in this one as this game goes down to the wire.
Arizona by 1 |
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12-01-12 | Nebraska -3 v. Wisconsin | Top | 31-70 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 25 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #33/#337 Take Nebraska Cornhuskers over Wisconsin Badgers
(Big Ten Championship Game, Saturday, 12/1, 8 pm FOX) Top College Football Play of the Weekend Nebraska The Cornhuskers are clearly the second best team in the Big Ten and despite a couple of shaky performances against UCLA and Ohio State, they earned their spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Huskers went 7-1 during Big Ten play and that included a victory over Wisconsin back in September. Nebraska is 3-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin This selection is more about going against Wisconsin, as the fan base has no confidence in their head coach. Wisconsin has not had an answer when they have to throw the football and if they cannot run the ball; their offense will struggle to move the football. The Wisconsin defense is solid, but Nebraska picked up them apart in the second half of their first meeting and we fully expect them to pick up right where they left off. Wisconsin is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Final Comment The Badgers have proven all season long that they can beat up on the bad teams (there are a bunch of them in the Big Ten) but struggle to beat the top tier teams. Wisconsin is one dimensional and that will not get the job done against Nebraska. The Huskers are excited to be in this game compared to the Badgers that know they are only in this game by default. Nebraska by 20 |
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12-01-12 | Alabama -7 v. Georgia | 32-28 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 11 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #29/#333 Take Alabama Crimson Tide over Georgia Bulldogs
(SEC Championship, Saturday, 12/1, 4 pm CBS) Alabama The Tide got a second life for a second straight season when Oregon and Kansas State lost and now they are in the driver |
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12-01-12 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor +4.5 | 34-41 | Win | 100 | 95 h 12 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #12/#318 Take Baylor Bears over Oklahoma State Cowboys
(Saturday, 12/1, 12 pm FX) Baylor The Bears have turned in on of late winning two straight games to become bowl eligible and now set their sights on a winning record to close out the regular season. Baylor has a strong offense that averages over 44 points per game, good for 5th in the country. The Bears also give up a lot of points and that is very similar to their opponent for this game today. Baylor is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games. Oklahoma State The Pokes are a very similar team to Baylor scoring a ton of points and giving up a ton of points as well. They are coming off an emotional loss to Oklahoma last week and I do not believe that they will have much left in the tank for this game following such heartbreak. Oklahoma State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Final Comment Emotion is one of the critical factors in handicapping college football games and the Pokes have to be down in the dumps after blowing a late lead to Oklahoma last week. Baylor will capitalize on that and win their 7th victory of the season. Baylor by 4 |
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11-24-12 | Notre Dame -6 v. USC | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 99 h 26 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #103/#209 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over USC Trojans
(Saturday, 11/24, 8 pm ABC) Notre Dame The Irish got what they needed last week when the top two teams in the BCS both lost and now they are in great shape to make the BCS Championship Game in South Florida. The Irish got a big break when Matt Barkley got hurt last week and now their strong defense gets to attack a freshman quarterback that has not started a game. The Irish have been dominated by the Trojans in recent years, but now the talent and coaching has shifted in a big way toward Notre Dame. USC The Trojans are one of the most disappointing teams in the entire country this season, as they started the season as No. 1 in the country but have lost 4 games in a so-so PAC-12 Conference and are not even ranked at the moment. They have great wide receivers but I question if this new quarterback will be able to get them the football. They also have a terrible coach in Lane Kiffin that has a defense that cannot stop anybody and he will likely have to replace his dad as defensive coordinator come seasons end. USC is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Final Comment USC has shown that they do not belong in the national title hunt and Coach Lane Kiffin continues to prove he is not that great of a coach. USC |
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11-24-12 | Wisconsin v. Penn State -2.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 95 h 56 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #76/#162 Take Penn State Nittany Lions over Wisconsin Badgers
(Saturday, 11/24, 3:30 pm ESPN 2) Penn State Words cannot express the job that Coach Bill O |
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11-24-12 | Maryland v. North Carolina -25 | 38-45 | Loss | -105 | 94 h 24 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #34/#148 Take North Carolina Tar Heels over Maryland Terrapins
(Saturday, 11/24, 3 pm ESPN 3) North Carolina I believe the Tar Heels are a better team than what their record indicates as they have some quality wins and a couple of shaky losses. But the Heels can score points and that will allow them to cover this big number against a terrible team. North Carolina is 11th in the country scoring over 40 points per game. UNC is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Maryland By now we all know how bad Maryland is and how injuries have taken its toll of this team. Maryland has lost five straight games and the last three have been by more than twenty points. They have suffered numerous injuries at the quarterback position and teams just cannot win or stay in games when that occurs. Maryland is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Final Comment Expect UNC to win their 8th game of the season rather easily on Saturday against a depleted team that cannot wait for the season to end. Throw in the fact that Maryland is bolting the ACC and I do not believe that will put them in good graces with the game officials. UNC by 35 |
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11-24-12 | Georgia Tech v. Georgia -13 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 91 h 22 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #66/#146 Take Georgia Bulldogs over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
(Saturday, 11/24, 12 pm ESPN) Georgia The Dawgs have been a cash cow for gamblers all season long and we expect that trend to continue in this annual showdown between the two top teams in the state of Georgia. Georgia will be prepared for this triple option attack of the Yellow Jackets since they faced a similar style in Georgia Southern last week. Georgia has a path to the BCS Championship Game if they win their next two games and that is not out of the realm of possibilities. Georgia is 9-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games against ACC opponents. Georgia Tech The Yellow Jackets received a big break when Miami took themselves out of consideration for the ACC Championship Game against Florida State and now they are the lucky dog or sacrificial lamb. Georgia Tech has trouble with teams from SEC since they have the players with the front four to stop the triple option. In order for Tech to have success, they must be able to pass the football and I just do not see that happening. Georgia Tech is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Final Comment Georgia just has too much to play for to take this game lightly. They cannot afford to look ahead to Alabama since they need to win out to stay in contention for a BCS Championship Game berth. Georgia by 22 |
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11-24-12 | Michigan v. Ohio State -3.5 | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 91 h 22 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #74/140 Take Ohio State Buckeyes over Michigan Wolverines
(Saturday, 11/24, 12 pm ABC) Ohio State The Buckeyes are just one game away from a perfect season and we fully expect them to complete this Saturday afternoon at the Horseshoe. Ohio State has dominated this series with Michigan in recent years with the exception of the 2012 game. They will have revenge on their minds and will be determined to send out their senior class on a high note since they are ineligible for a bowl game. Ohio State has the most stable quarterback on the field in Braxton Miller and I expect him to pick apart this suspect Michigan defense, a defense that is not as good as their actually numbers show. Ohio State is 40-18 ATS (1 push) in their last 59 games against teams with a winning record. Michigan After a disappointing performance during the non-conference portion of the season, Michigan has performed well during Big Ten play with a 6-1 record and has an outside chance to make the championship game should Nebraska lose to Iowa on Friday. But much of that is fool |
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11-24-12 | Illinois +19.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 14-50 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 24 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #71/#155 Take Illinois Fighting Illini over Northwestern Wildcats
(Saturday, 11/24, 12 pm Big Ten Network) Top College Football Play of the Weekend Illinois Make no bones about it, this has been the most disappointing team in the conference as they currently sit at 2-9 on the season and 0-7 in the Big Ten. But they are allowing just over 30 points per game and getting this many points in a rivalry game is very inviting. Illinois did beat the Wildcats last season by three points and talent wise they just match-up really well with their opponent. Illinois has covered this posted number in four of their last six games and they should be able to run the football a little in this game against Northwestern. Northwestern The Cats are looking to finish out the Big Ten with a 5-3 record and all that they have to do is win this game against their in-state rival. The Cats are not the offensive juggernaut they have been in recent years and they are getting it done in 2012 with a more traditional style and thus their scoring is way down. They are scoring just under 30 points per game and that does not bode well when trying to cover this big of a number. Northwestern is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing road record. Final Comment Northwestern has never been a good team to play as a big favorite and because of their ATS success this season this number is really inflated. Illinois has a first year head coach looking to end the season on a high note and expect his players to go all out in this game. Northwestern is banged up after an emotional game last week against Michigan State and thus they will take this game lightly. Northwestern by 6 |
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11-23-12 | Central Michigan -10.5 v. UMass | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 70 h 20 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #13/115 Take Central Michigan Chippewas over Massachusetts Minutemen
(Friday, 11/23, 3 pm) Central Michigan The Chippewas still have an outside chance to make a bowl game but they need a road victory against one of the worst teams in the country. Central Michigan has won 23 of their last 34 road/neutral site games. Central Michigan has great balance throwing for close to 260 yards per game and running for over 140 yards per game. Massachusetts UMASS has found life difficult as they transition to life in the FBS. They are scoring just 12 points per game and allowing teams to score 40 points per game on them. They are just 1-10 on the season and do not run the football well or pass the football well. UMASS is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss in their previous game. Final Comment This play is more about going against UMASS, as they are a terrible team. CMU is always been a strong team to challenges for the top spot in the MAC. This game will be over early, as this miserable season for the Minutemen coming to an end in a flaming way. Central Michigan by 25 |
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11-17-12 | Kansas State v. Baylor +12.5 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 81 h 0 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play.#34/#362 Take Baylor Bears over Kansas State Wildcats
(Saturday, 11/17, 8 pm ESPN) Baylor The Bears have found life without RG3 difficult as they are just 1-5 on the season, but they close the season out with three games close to home. I feel that they can win at least two of them. The home team has won 5 straight in this matchup, and the underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 games. Baylor has the offense that can threaten this strong KSU defense, as they are seventh in the country scoring over 42 points per game. Baylor is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games. Kansas State The Wildcats are the No. 1-ranked team in the country, but they are not been that impressive in road games with the exception of West Virginia. They struggled to put away Iowa State, and if TCU could have done anything on offense that would have been right in the game last week. This team does most of their damage on the ground, and expect the Bears to really key on that and make the Wildcats move the football through the air. Final Comment K-State deserves the No. 1 ranking in the BCS, but I believe that these next two weeks will be very difficult for them to win both games. They are facing a high-powered offense in Baylor, and the Bears will score points and this game and hang around for 60 minutes. Kansas State by 4 |
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11-17-12 | Iowa State v. Kansas +6 | 51-23 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 3 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #20/#330 Take Kansas Jayhawks over Iowa State Cyclones
(Saturday, 11/17, 7 pm) Kansas The Jayhawks are struggling in a major rebuilding project under new head coach Charlie Weis. After winning their first game of the season, the Jayhawks have lost nine straight games. However, this is the game that they can win. Kansas has been competitive of late in two of their last three games and nearly pulled the upset against Texas. Kansas has covered 5 of their last 7 games at Memorial Stadium. Iowa State I just do not believe that the Cyclones are good enough to be laying this type of wood on the road against anybody in the Big 12. Iowa State has lost 4 of their last 5 games, including back-to-back blowouts the last two weeks. Iowa State is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record. Final Comment These are two bad teams in the Big 12, and I expect this game to go down to the wire. This is the Jayhawks last home game of the season, and expect them to go all out in hopes that they can excite the fan base for next season. Kansas by 1 |
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11-17-12 | Tennessee v. Vanderbilt -4 | 18-41 | Win | 100 | 80 h 2 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #80/#346 Take Vanderbilt Commodores over Tennessee Volunteers
(Saturday, 11/17, 7 pm ESPN 2) Vanderbilt Vanderbilt is quietly plugging along in the ultra-competitive SEC, and they are already bowl eligible and have two winnable games to close out the season. This series has been owned by Tennessee, but this is the best chance Vanderbilt has had since they are playing a team that can |
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11-17-12 | Syracuse v. Missouri -4 | 31-27 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 57 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #38/#390 Take Missouri Tigers over Syracuse Orange
(Saturday, 11/17, 7 pm ESPN U) Missouri The Tigers are coming off an exciting win last week at Tennessee, and this now becomes a must-win game for them in they have visions of making a bowl game this season. Missouri has found it difficult to compete in the SEC, but things will get much easier since they are facing a team from the Big East. Missouri has won 7 straight home finales, and expect them to shut down this Syracuse offense. Missouri is 24-3 ATS in their last 27 games after they allowed 40 or more points in their previous game. Syracuse The Orange are coming off their most impressive victory in a decade when they upset the undefeated Louisville Cardinals last Saturday. Now they just need one more victory in the regular season to become bowl eligible, but that will be much easier next week at Temple then it will be this weekend against Missouri. Syracuse is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games. Final Comment The Orange are primed for a letdown after such an emotional victory last week. Expect them to come in flat and Missouri will jump on them early and coast to a victory. The SEC is better than the Big East. Missouri by 14 |
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11-17-12 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin UNDER 53 | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 76 h 26 m | Show | |
10 Unit Play. #98/#396 Take Under in Ohio State Buckeyes @ Wisconsin Badgers
(Saturday, 11/17, 3:30 pm ABC) Ohio State The Buckeyes sit atop the standings in the Big Ten and would be a major player for the BCS Championship Game if they were eligible. But that is not the case, and, thus, they will close out the season next week against Michigan. This will likely be their toughest test since they are in a hostile environment and facing a strong Wisconsin defense. Ohio State has gone under the posted total in 20 of their last 30 games (2 pushes) following a victory by 20 or more points in their previous game. Wisconsin The Badgers laid a beat down on Indiana last Saturday but will find it much tougher to move the football this week against Ohio State. QB Curt Phillips had his first start last week, and he was just a game manager and did not have to do anything throwing the football. That will not be the case in this game, and expect Ohio State to stack the line of scrimmage and make him beat them with his arm. Wisconsin has gone under the posted total in 5 of their last 6 home games (1 push) against Ohio State. Final Comment I would not dare release a side play on this game since I do not have a good feel with Wisconsin and their new quarterback. Therefore, the best value lies with the under and we will not worry who wins this game and just collect with the under. Play the Under. |
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11-17-12 | South Florida v. Miami (Florida) -6.5 | 9-40 | Win | 100 | 76 h 5 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #90/#326 Take Miami (FL) Hurricanes over South Florida Bulls
(Saturday, 11/17, 3 pm ESPN 3) Miami The Hurricanes have had an up-and-down season but have a good chance to win their last two games of the season and make a bowl game (if they are eligible) to close out the season. Miami has not played well in this series of late, especially at home, and it is important for them to make a statement in this game against their in-state rival. Miami has covered 4 straight games at home, and they do have some impressive wins on the season against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. USF This play is more about going against South Florida, as they have taken a major step back this season. The Bulls score just over 25 points per game, and that will not get it done against Miami. USF is just 4-13 ATS (1 push) in their last 18 games. Final Comment Miami games have been high-scoring all season long, and I expect the Bulls to have trouble keeping pace with the Hurricanes. It is very important for Coach Golden to show improvement in Year 2, and he needs both of these games to produce a winning record in 2012. Miami represents the ACC well, and we collect big in the process too. Miami by 14 |
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11-17-12 | Iowa v. Michigan -17 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
5 Unit Play. #54/#378 Take Michigan Wolverines -17 over Iowa Hawkeyes
(Saturday, 11/17, 12 pm ESPN) Michigan The Wolverines have played well during the Big Ten portion of the season with their only loss coming against Nebraska. Michigan earned a hard-fought overtime victory (with a little luck) last week against Northwestern, and expect them to carry that positive momentum into this week's game against Iowa. Michigan still has a strong defense that allows just over 18 points per game, good for 17th in the country. Michigan is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record. Iowa This play is more about going against Iowa, as they have fallen on hard times of late and will not be going to a bowl game this season. Iowa is a terrible offensive team as they rank 96th in passing yards, 101st in rushing yards, and 104th in points scored. They have lost 4 straight games, and that will become six straight games in two weeks since they have yet to face Michigan and Nebraska. Iowa is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games. Final Comment The Wolverines are clearly the better team in this game regardless of who is behind center for them. Michigan still has an outside chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game, and they cannot afford to take this game lightly. Lay the wood in this game as it will be a rout. Michigan by 28 |
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11-10-12 | Kansas State v. TCU +7.5 | 23-10 | Loss | -113 | 53 h 31 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #36/#166 Take TCU Horned Frogs over Kansas State Wildcats
(Saturday, 11/10, 7 pm FOX) TCU The Horned Frogs joined the Big XII this season and have held their own for the most part, but the schedule gets much more difficult from here on out with games against K-State, Texas, and Oklahoma. That being said, TCU will not back down for any of these teams, and they have a great head coach in Gary Patterson. TCU does not have any weak spots on offense or defense; they are also not explosive either. They are just a solid team that comes ready to play each and every week. TCU is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games played during the month of November. Kansas State The Wildcats are a poor man |
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11-10-12 | Penn State v. Nebraska -7 | Top | 23-32 | Win | 100 | 96 h 58 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #26/#150 Take Nebraska Cornhuskers over Penn State Nittany Lions
(Saturday, 11/10, 3:30 pm ABC) Top College Football Play of the Weekend Nebraska Nebraska has angered their fan base with two losses already on the season but they are still in great position of earn and spot in Rose Bowl and all they have to do in win their last 4 games on the season. They are 4-1 and have the tie-breaker against Michigan and I do not believe they will face much competition in the Big Ten Championship Game since Ohio State is ineligible. This team is loaded with talent on both sides of the football; they just do not play to that ability on a consistent basis. Nebraska won last year in State College many of those players are still on the roster for both teams. Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Penn State Penn State has done a remarkable job keeping the program afloat. But their 4-1 record in the Big Ten is more about the Big Ten being terrible than it is Penn State being good. The Lions did not perform well against Ohio State and they will likely lose two of their remaining three games. QB Matt McGloin has played well this season but I am still not a believe that he can perform well in big games. Penn State is just 5-11 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 games against team with a winning record. Final Comment Nebraska has the Rose Bowl in their sight and Penn State is not the team that will be able to knock them off of their path. When Penn State plays good teams, their depth becomes a major issues and expect Nebraska to take control of this game down the stretch and pull away late to win this game by double digits. Nebraska by 19 |
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11-10-12 | Colorado v. Arizona -30.5 | 31-56 | Loss | -105 | 94 h 53 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #106/#190 Take Arizona Wildcats over Colorado Buffaloes
(Saturday, 11/10, 1:30 pm FX) Arizona The Wildcats were coming off a historic win two weeks ago against USC and followed that up with an embarrassing 56-point loss to UCLA last week. For some reason this team plays much better on the road then they do at home and expect them to get back on track this Saturday against the worst BCS Conference team in the country. QB Matt Scott is questionable for this game but regardless we fully expect a blowout because Colorado sucks. Arizona has covered 4 of their last 5 home games. Colorado Not much needs to be said about just how terrible this team is but we will give you a few stats. They have lost five straight games and their closest margin of defeat in those games was 28 points against UCLA. They highest rank is 99th in passing yards per game and they are 100th or worse in all other categories. Colorado is 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games against teams with a winning record at home. Final Comment The clincher for me using Arizona is that they have revenge from last year. Colorado beat Arizona by 19 points last season in Boulder and you can bet Coach Rodriguez has made that be known throughout this week. Arizona names their score and we collect in the process as well. Arizona by 43 |
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11-10-12 | Missouri v. Tennessee -3 | 51-48 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 46 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #86/#170 Take Tennessee Volunteers over Missouri Tigers
(Saturday, 11/10, 12:20 pm SEC Network) Tennessee Tennessee is 4-0 in non-conference action but 0-5 in the SEC and Coach Derek Dooley is squarely on the hot seat and I do not believe he will be able to withstand the scrutiny of an upset fan base. But they still do have a good chance to make a bowl game since they finish out SEC play with three winnable games against Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. Tennessee can score points on offense, as they average 36.8 points per game. Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played during the month of November. Missouri Missouri has struggled in their first year of SEC play with just one conference victory and that came against Kentucky, a team that has already fired their coach. They are a terrible offensive team that ranks 98th in passing yards per game and 101st in rushing yards per game. They score just 22.4 points per game and that will not get it done against a strong offensive team like Tennessee. Missouri is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS victory in their previous game. Final Comment Both teams have performed poorly during SEC play and both need this victory if they have visions of making a bowl game. Tennessee has a much better offense and that will be the difference in this game. Lay the small wood behind a better Volunteer team. Tennessee by 13 |
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11-10-12 | Louisville v. Syracuse +3 | 26-45 | Win | 100 | 93 h 32 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #30/#122 Take Syracuse Orange over Louisville Cardinals
(Saturday, 11/10, 12 pm ABC) Syracuse The Orange need wins in two of their last three games in order to make a bowl game and it would not surprise me if that occurs since this team continues to plays well. A couple of calls went against them last week at Cincinnati and that allowed the Bearcats to pull away from them in the second half but I did not feel that Syracuse gave up in that game. They have a solid quarterback in Ryan Nassib who has already thrown 18 touchdowns on the season and only 8 interceptions. He alone has the ability to keep Syracuse in this game for 60 minutes. Louisville The Cardinals are undefeated yet nobody in the national media is taking them serious. That is because they have struggled to put away one mediocre team after another for most of the season. Louisville is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against team with a losing record at home. QB Teddy Bridgewater can play but I do not believe his supporting cast is up to his level. Final Comment The line being this low with an undefeated team tells you something. Louisville is not that good and they will suffer their first loss on the season this Saturday in up-state New York. Louisville luck runs out on Saturday and we collect with the underdog. Syracuse by 4 |
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11-10-12 | Wisconsin v. Indiana +7 | 62-14 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 30 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #22/128 Take Indiana Hoosiers over Wisconsin Badgers
(Saturday, 11/10, 12 pm ESPN 2) Indiana The Hoosiers have not be a player atop the Big Ten Standing for as long as I can remember but that can all change with a victory this Saturday against Wisconsin. The Hoosiers control their own destiny and three wins in three weeks will earn them a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Hoosiers have a strong offense and I believe that is their ticket to success in this game against Wisconsin. Indiana is 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Wisconsin The Badgers are coming off a bye week but they still have major issues and do not warrant being this big of a favorite on the road. A new quarterback will be under center and regardless of who it is expect Wisconsin to try and win this game on the ground. I do not believe that will be able to occur and in order for Wisconsin to be successful they will have to make plays through the air. I just do not have any confidence in Danny O |
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11-09-12 | Pittsburgh -3.5 v. Connecticut | 17-24 | Loss | -102 | 77 h 35 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #11/#111 Take Pittsburgh Panthers over Connecticut Huskies
(Friday, 11/9, 8 pm ESPN 2) Pittsburgh The Panthers are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame, a game which they played outstanding for three quarters before being ineffective in the fourth quarter and overtime. Some many think there will be a letdown in effect for this game, but I do not believe that will be the case. The main reason is that this is a must win game for Pittsburgh if they have visions of making a bowl game this season. Pittsburgh has won 3 of the last 4 games in this series against Connecticut. Pittsburgh is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss in their previous game. Connecticut The Huskies were a respectable team under former Coach Randy Edsall but they have yet to capture any of that magic under Coach Paul Pasqualoni. The Huskies will not be making a bowl game for the second straight year and will enter this game having lost 4 straight. They do not run the football at all and do not score points at all and that is a recipe for disaster. Connecticut is 0-5 ATS (1 push) in their last six games overall. Final Comment Both teams are near the bottom of the standing in the Big East going a combined 1-7 in the standing. But Pittsburgh appears to be heading in the right direction and UCONN cannot wait for the season to end. QB Tino Suneri has the ability to pick apart this Huskie team and that will allow the Panthers to emerge victorious. Pittsburgh by 13 |
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11-03-12 | Oregon v. USC +8 | 62-51 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 50 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #70/#394 Take USC Trojans over Oregon Ducks
(Saturday, 11/4, 7 pm FOX) USC USC must be pretty angry after giving that game away last week against Arizona despite a dominating performance by Marqise Lee, who set records with 345 receiving yards and two touchdowns. But penalties and turnovers did them in and thus this game lost a lot of luster. USC still has a ton of talent, just not much depth and poor coaching. But coaching will not be a factor in this game since they Trojans have had this game circled all season and will be excited to play in front of their home fans at the Coliseum. USC still has the edge at the quarterback and wide receiver position and remember they went into Eugene last season and upset the Ducks. USC has always bounced back well form adversity going 16-6 ATS in the next game following a loss. Oregon What can you say about Coach Chip Kelly and his Ducks? This team has an identity on offense and they execute like no other team in the country. But that being said, they have yet to be challenged by anybody that can match-up with them with talent but that will change tonight. Oregon is No. 2 in all polls but No. 4 in the BCS and that alone tells you that the computers are not impressed with their level of competition. Oregon can score points like no team can but they have yet to face an offense like USC who can beat you in the air or on the ground. Final Comment If USC is to ever feel slighted, it will be in this game. They have not been this big of an underdog in over a decade when playing at home and expect them to come out determined to make a statement that they are still a top ten program. This game will be much closer than what the experts believe and the money line on USC is also worth a look. USC by 1 |
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11-03-12 | Connecticut v. South Florida -8 | 6-13 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 48 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #102/#366 Take USF Bulls over Connecticut Huskies
(Saturday, 11/3, 7 pm ESPN U) USF Neither one of these teams have won a game in the Big East but the Bulls have been competitive in all eight games this season despite losing six of them. Two weeks ago they had Louisville on the ropes only to give back the lead late in the fourth quarter. Coach Holtz always gets up for this game since he used to coach at UCONN and this year they will have revenge on their minds since they lost by six points in 2011 despite being a touchdown favorite. Connecticut The Huskies have not been as competitive in the Big East as the Bulls have been and most of the top teams in the league have yet to play Connecticut. UCONN does not run the football at all and scores just 17.9 points per game (119th). The Huskies are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. Final Comment These are two bad teams in a bad conference but revenge and playing at home are key components that will allow USF to take this game by double digits. Connecticut has been blown out by bad teams before and that will again be the case on Saturday night in Tampa. USF by 17 |
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11-03-12 | Iowa v. Indiana -1.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 96 h 25 m | Show | |
5 Unit Play. #16/#328 Take Indiana Hoosiers over Iowa Hawkeyes
(Saturday, 11/3, 3:30 pm BTN) Indiana The Hoosiers still have a chance to make a bowl game and even win the Leaders Division if they can win these two home games in consecutive weeks against Iowa and Wisconsin. Indiana appears to be headed in the right direction and has played much better of late despite losing three of their last four games. Indiana lost those three games by a combined total of eight points and dominated Illinois last week in a game that was not close at all. Indiana has a strong offense especially in the passing department, as they throw for 286 yards per game and score over 35 points. Indiana has covered 4 straight games. Iowa The Hawkeyes have struggled in recent years to get back to the upper-echelon of Big Ten teams and they will not be getting back there any time soon. They have been a terrible road team of late covering just 2 of their last 12 games away from Iowa City. Iowa has been blowout two straight weeks against so-so Big Ten teams (Penn State & Northwestern) and today should be no different. They score just over 20 points per game and I do not believe they will be able to keep up with the high scoring Hoosiers. Final Comment The Hoosiers have performed much better than the Hawkeyes of late and both of these trends will continue right through this weekend. Iowa does not really do anything well on either side of the football and Indiana at least has a strong passing attack. That will be the difference on Saturday. Indiana by 10 |
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11-03-12 | Illinois v. Ohio State -27 | 22-52 | Win | 100 | 95 h 17 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #68/#356 Take Ohio State Buckeyes over Illinois Fighting Illini
(Saturday, 11/4, 3:30 pm ESPN) Ohio State Boy the Buckeyes sure picked the wrong time to not show up for a game on offense. That occurred two weeks ago against Purdue and it wound up costing up big. But they were their own self last week in State College pounding Penn State in the second half and now they face by far and away the worst team in the Big Ten. Illinois was ranked last year and had a depleted Ohio State team at home and still lost that game by double digits. This is a much stronger Buckeye team and it will be name their score on offense since they have one of the most dynamic play callers in all of college football. Ohio State is 45-20 ATS (1 push) in their last 66 Big Ten games. Illinois To be this bad in a year in which they Big Ten is terrible says a lot about Illinois. They are 0-4 with their closest loss being to Indiana last week by 14 points in Champaign. They have a new coach and are terrible on both sides of the ball. They score just 18 points per game (118th) and give up 30.8 points per game (89th). Illinois is 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games following a double-digit loss at home. Final Comment If Ohio State comes ready to play this will be a woodshed beating for 60 minutes. Illinois used to have talent under former Coach Ron Zook but now they do not have any talent and bad coaching as well. Losing (ATS) with Ohio State at home against Purdue will only mean that Coach Meyer will get their attention and make sure they do not lay an egg at home again. Ohio State 38 |
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11-03-12 | Pittsburgh +16.5 v. Notre Dame | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 95 h 36 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #65/#357 Take Pittsburgh Panthers over Notre Dame Fighting Irish
(Saturday, 11/3, 3:30 pm NBC) Pittsburgh Must admit that I have always been a fan of Pittsburgh Coach Paul Chryst when he was the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin and fully believe he was the reason for the success of Wisconsin and not the Head Coach Bret Bielema. After a slow start with his new team, the Panthers have played much better of late winning four of their last six games including a home victory against Virginia Tech. They have been competitive in all six of those games and should be able to stay with Notre Dame, a team that is not an offensive juggernaut. That being said, their success of failure relies solely on the play on quarterback Tino Sunseri. When he plays well Pittsburgh has a chance to beat anybody (relatively speaking) but when he struggles they can lose to anybody. Since he is a senior, Coach Chryst can only do so much with him, but he has gotten him to play better as the season has progressed. Pittsburgh is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Notre Dame Not much that is negative can be said about the play of Notre Dame this season. They are undefeated and picked up an impressive victory last week in Norman, OK. Most of this success is due to their defense, as it may be the best in the nation allowing under 10 points per game. If only they had a high powered offense, they would be Alabama, but they do not and thus they struggled to blowout any opponent. Purdue, Michigan, Stanford, and BYU are not top ranked teams, yet Notre Dame could not put them away and Pittsburgh will be another one of those teams. Notre Dame is 0-3 ATS (1 push) in their last four games against Big East teams. Final Comment Notre Dame has a good chance to run the table but they do not have a top offense in the country. Assuming Pittsburgh does not give this game away with turnovers, this will be a 10 point low scoring Irish victory and we will collect with the underdog. Notre Dame by 10 |