Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-16-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 103-90 | Win | 100 | 61 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. The Celtics have had their chances. They could easily be leading this series. They haven't taken advantage though. Now, it's too late. The well-coached veteran Warrior team knows they have the Celtics on the ropes. They smell the blood in the water and they absolutely want to close the deal. They're 5-1 under Kerr when up 3-2 in a series. Curry couldn't hit anything last game and the Warriors still won by double-digits. Naturally, he's going to be better in this one. Former #1 pick Wiggins has come into his own in these playoffs and that's made a huge difference. Not only does he score but he dominates the boards. Green and Poole are both capable of making a difference. Meanwhile, Klay Thompson has started to find his groove. Speaking of Klay, he tends to dominate in Game 6 situations. In 12 career Game 6's, he's averaging 20.7 points per game while connecting on 49.5% of his 3-point shots. The Warriors are 11-5 SU when playing with two day's rest in between games and they're 29-13 SU when off a double-digit win. While I expect them to improve on those stats, I'm happy to grab the points. |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 209.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW/Boston OVER the total. Naturally, I really respect these defenses; I've successfully played on the 'under' in each of the past two games. However, those results have helped provide us with a lower O/U number for this one. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Curry was dreadful last game and the Warriors still hit triple-digits for the 11th straight game. Naturally, he's going to be better. Meanwhile, Klay Thompson historically comes up big in Game 6 situations. He's hit nearly 50% of his Game 6 3-point shots for his career, averaging better than 20 points. Of course, Tatum, Brown and co. aren't going to just go away quietly. Boston still averages more than 110 ppg. With the Celtics trailing for the first time in the series, note that the OVER is 9-4-1 the past 14 times that they were trailing in a series. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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06-13-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW. The zig-zag theory has been alive and well in this series thus far; no team has won two in a row. However, I expect that to change in Monday's pivotal Game 5 matchup. Since relinquishing homecourt advantage with a Game 1 loss, the Warriors have done what they needed to do. They bounced back with a Game 2 win and they got the split in the two games in Boston. Homecourt advantage once again belongs to them and they're not about to let it slip away again. While the Celtics are 31-21 on the road, the Warriors are 41-11 at home. They score more points here than Boston does on the road and they also allow less. Last time on this floor, also playing with two day's rest in between games, the Warriors won 107-88. I'm expecting another win and cover. |
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06-13-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 212 | Top | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/GSW UNDER the total. After the last game stayed 'under,' some may be expecting more points tonight. After all, the O/U results have zig-zagged throughout this entire series. The first game finished over. The second was under. The third was over and the fourth and under. Yet, I'm expecting that "pattern" to come to an end this evening. Keep in mind that the last game on this floor produced only 195 points. Also, it should be mentioned that the Celtics have seen the UNDER go 12-4-1 when playing with two day's rest in between games while the UNDER is 10-4-1 when the Warriors played with two day's rest. Going back further finds the UNDER at 24-11-1 when GS played with two day's rest and 22-11-1 when Boston did so. Lastly, the UNDER is also 14-6 the past 20 times that the Celtics were off an upset loss. Look for the UNDER to improve to 7-3 the past 10 times that they were tied in a series. |
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06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW/Boston UNDER the total. As of this writing, the expectation is that Curry will play. However, it's possible that he isn't 100%. Either way, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. After dropping Game 1, the Warriors bounced back with a much better defensive effort in Game 2. They held Boston to 88 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 15-6-1 the past 22 times that the Warriors were trailing in a playoff series. The Celtics, meanwhile, have seen the UNDER go 8-4 the past dozen times that they were leading in a series. While the Warriors should be able to keep the Celtics to fewer points than in Game 3, they still figure to have trouble scoring. Boston hasn't allowed an opponent to reach more than 111 points in any of its past nine games. On the season, the Celtics are allowing an average of only 103. Both teams are going to battle for this one. While they'll get their points, I don't see anything coming easily. Expect the final combined score to stay beneath the number. |
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06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 212.5 | Top | 100-116 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on GS/Boston UNDER the total. Even with Tatum hot from beyond the arc out of the gate and the teams scoring more than 60 (they finished with 61) in the first quarter, these teams saw Game 2 finish well below the total. I expect the stingy defense which we saw in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters to extend into Game 3. The UNDER is 41-30 when Boston was listed as a favorite. Note that the Celtics score less AND allow less in their home games. The last two times that Boston was tied in a series (Game 5 and Game 7 vs. Miami) the games finished with combined scores of 173 and 196. Going back further finds the UNDER at 6-2 the past eight times that the Celtics were tied in a series and 12-8-1 the past 21 times that GS was in that situation. I say this one also proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 37 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/GSW UNDER the total. After a high-scoring opener, we're working with a higher O/U number for Game 2. I believe it'll prove to be too high. For starters, I like the fact that they'll play with two day's rest in between games. The Celtics have seen the UNDER go 11-3-1 with two day's rest in between games. Meanwhile, the Warriors have seen the UNDER go 9-3-1 when playing with two day's rest. Going back further finds the UNDER at 21-10-1 when Boston played with two day's rest and 23-10-1 when GS did so. While we have to go back a while, it's also worth noting that the UNDER is 14-6-1 the past 21 times that the Warriors were trailing in a playoff series. I say this one proves lower-scoring than expected, the UNDER improving to 31-18-1 the past 50 times that GS attempted to avenge a home loss. |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on GOLDEN STATE. Impressive comeback win for the Celtcs in Game 1. I'm not writing off the Warriors yet though. Battle-tested, they've been here before. They know what needs to be done. They're 14-7 ATS over the years, when trailing in a series. Each of the Warriors' recent losses has seen them respond with a big win. They're still 40-11 on this floor. With the Celtics only 4-7-1 ATS the past dozen times that they were off an upset victory, I say the Warriors bounce back with the win and cover. |
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06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 212.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/GSW UNDER the total. Games between these teams, here in the Bay Area, are traditionally fairly low-scoring. I'm expecting that to be the case again this evening. When the Celtics played here during the regular season, the O/U line was 220. Yet, the teams combined for only 198 points. Factoring in that result, the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 the past seven meetings here, 19-7 the past 26 meetings overall. While both can certainly score, these are also two stingy teams. The Celtics held the Heat to double-digits in three of the final four games; Miami scored 82 or less in two of those. The Warriors began their series with the Mavs by holding Dallas to only 87. That game finished below the total by double-digits and I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 198 | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 36 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Miami UNDER the total. While I won with the 'over' last game, in this elimination game, I expect the defense to take center stage. These are two of the best defenses in the league. When the series was tied 1-1, Game 3 finished above the total. However, that was the one where the scoring went crazy in the final minute/s. It could have easily stayed below the total. Then, when the series was tied 2-2, the next game finished with just 173 points, the lowest-scoring of the series. Including those results, the UNDER is 2-1 the past few seasons when Miami was tied in a series. (Again, that 'over' could have easily gone 'under.') Meanwhile, the Celtics have seen the UNDER go 5-2 their last seven, when a series was tied. They've also seen the UNDER go 14-5 the last 19 times that they were off an upset loss. The last game here was the one which finished with just 173 points. Expect another low-scoring affair. |
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05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Needless to say, this has been a crazy series. The Celtics have arguably looked more impressive in their three wins than the Heat have in theirs. Largely as a result, we're getting the #1 seed as an underdog, on its home floor. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that the Heat were favored by four points, for Game 1 here. That's a big difference. We saw the willpower of Butler and co. It would have been easy to roll over in Game 6. They didn't. The Heat are 20-8 ATS as underdogs and they're 11-5 ATS (12-4 SU) when coming off a SU win, after having been listed as underdogs. They're 36-14 at home, compared to Boston's 29-20 on the road. Grab the points but expect the "outright win." |
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05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. It's true that the Celtics have looked very good in their three victories. The #1 seed isn't going to down without a fight though. The Heat have already show that they can win here. They won Game 3 by a score of 109-103. They're still 20-11-1 ATS their last 32 in the revenge role and 12-6 ATS when off a double-digit loss. Boston's previous big wins have led to some extra line value. Keep in mind that we're working with more points now than at anytime in the series. Speaking of points, note that Miami is 19-8-1 ATS its last 28, in the underdog role. The last time that the Heat were off b2b losses, they responded by winning their next game by 35 points. I'm not expecting another 35-point blowout tonight but I AM expecting them to bounce back with their best effort, en route to AT LEAST the 'cover.' |
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05-27-22 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 201 | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Boston OVER the total. This is the lowest O/U line of the series. While I respect both defenses, I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Facing elimination, the Heat are going to keep firing until the final buzzer. The last time that they were off b2b losses, they scored 120 points in their next game. Even with the last two games finishing below the total, keep in mind that both teams have still seen the OVER go 8-2-1 their last 11 Conf. Finals games. It should also be mentioned that Miami has seen the OVER go 7-2 the past nine times that it attenpted to avenge a home loss; the OVER is 21-11 the past 32 times the Heat played with revenge, overall. Miami road games average 213 points, as do Boston home games. Look for this one to find its way over the low number. |
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05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW. The Warriors missed their chance to close things out in four games, at Dallas. Back home, don't expect them to let it happen again. Give the Mavs credit for fighting to avoid the sweep. They still know the series is over though. They won't have the will to fight back this time. It's hard to beat Golden State twice in a row. The well-coached Warriors are a dominant 23-11 ATS (28-6 SU) their last 34, when playing with 'revenge.' They responded to each of their previous three playoff losses with a victory. They won those three games by an average of 16 points. The Warriors have obviously been here before. Their experience factor can't be overlooked. Neither can homecourt. The Warriors won the two games here by 34 combined points. Look for the Warriors to improve to 31-19 ATS (40-10 SU) their last 50 games here. |
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05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. As you've seen, this has been a funny kind of a series. The games haven't really been close. One game, Miami looks dominant and the next game, Boston does. While I do expect the Heat to win outright, I won't be surprised if we finally see a "close" one. That makes getting an extra bucket to work with a nice luxury. Again, I don't think we'll need those points though. The Celtics were great defensively last game. They're just 8-13 SU the past 21 times that they allowed 90 or fewer points in their previous game though. The Heat, 2-0 ATS when tied in a series, are 20-10 ATS the past 30 times that they were playing with 'revenge' and 12-5 ATS the past 17 times that they were off a double-digit loss. They're also 12-7 ATS (15-4 SU!) the past 19 times that they failed to score 100 or more points in their previous game. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats this evening. |
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05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW/Dallas OVER the total. As you're likely aware, the series is now 3-0. It's going to be very hard for Dallas to dig its way back. That said, the Mavericks aren't going to go down without a fight. They're going to be aggressive on offense and they'll keep firing until the final buzzer. Remember, the Mavs still average 108 ppg here. They're still reached "triple-digits" in scoring their last six straight (and 12 of their last 13) games here. So, yes, I believe that the Mavs will put up a healthy number of points. Don't be surprised to see Doncic become just the third player to score 40 or more in three times in the Conf. Finals. Stopping the Warriors is a different matter. Curry and co. smell the blood in the water. Since the dud in Memphis on 5/11, the Warriors have scored at least 109 in every game, averaging more than 114. When the Warriors were up 3-0 against the Nuggets, Game 4 finished with 247 points. I'm expecting another relatively high-scoring affair, the OVER moving to 6-3 the past nine times that the Mavs were off three or more consec. losses. |
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05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 208 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Boston UNDER the total. With a few minutes left, Game 3 appeared like it would surely finish below the number. Then, things got crazy. The refs didn't help matters. Either way, before that final foul-fest, the teams were playing stingy defense. I expect that to carry over into Game 4. The UNDER is 12-6 when Boston was off an upset loss. The Celtics were 'upset' twice in the Milwaukee series. Both times they responded with a strong defensive effort. The scores of the next games were 109-86 and 108-95. Both those games fell below the total and I believe that this one will, too. |
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05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. The Mavericks have shown that they should not be counted out. Down 0-2 to the Suns, they returned home and won Game 3 by a 103-94 score. They also won Game 3 in the Jazz series, winning by eight as +8.5 point underdogs. They're 6-3 SU/ATS the past nine times that they were trailing in a series. The Warriors aren't as tough on the road. They're 19-27 ATS (22-24 SU) in road games. Favored for the first time in the series, note that the Mavs are 30-19-2 ATS and 41-10 SU when listed as favorites. Expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats here. |
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05-21-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 207.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Boston UNDER the total. As you are likely aware, the first two games were both "blowouts." Miami won big in Game 1 and Boston returned the favor in Game 2. Both games were played at Miami and both finished well above the total. That, of course, has the series tied and shifting to Boston. I expect the change of venue and the fact that the series is now tied to lead to a much lower-scoring affair. Yet, the results from the first two games have rewarded us with the highest O/U number of the series. Value. The Celtics couldn't miss last game. They hit 51% of their field goals, 50% of their 3-point shots and 91% of their free throws. That's not likely to happen again. The last time that these teams met here, the Celtics scored 98 points and hit 29.7% of their 3-point shots. On the season, the Celtics have scored fewer points per game at home (than on the road) and they've also allowed less. When the Celtics were tied 1-1 with Milwaukee, the next game finished below the total, a 103-101 final. The Heat weren't tied 1-1 with either the Hawks or the 76'ers but they were tied 2-2 in the Philly series. The next game finished below the total; Miami bounced back from a bad loss and allowed only 85 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 4-1 the past five times that Miami was tied in a series. Remember, these are still two of stingier teams in the NBA. Nothing comes easily in this one and the final combined score stays below the number. |
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05-20-22 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 213.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing Dallas/GSW OVER the total. Game 1 was relatively low-scoring as the Mavericks struggled with their shooting. The Warriors could have scored more, if they need to do so. While it remains to be seen if it'll be enough, I expect the Doncic and the Mavs to bounce back with a far better shooting performance in this one. The last time that the Mavs failed to reach triple-digits in scoring, they bounced back and scored 113 in their next game. The time before that they scored 114 the next game. As for the Warriors, they've seen the OVER go 6-2 the past eight times that they allowed 90 or fewer points in their previous game. Kerr said this of Doncic's poor Game 1 shooting: "He's too good. One game we did an excellent job defensively, but we are under no illusion that we've figured anything out. There's a good chance those shots start going in next game, so we just have to stay committed and stay aggressive and play with force and see what happens." In other words, Kerr knows his team needs to put up a big number to win this game. The OVER is still 12-5 the past 17 meetings. I'm expecting those stats to improve this evening. |
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05-19-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 208 | Top | 127-102 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Miami UNDER the total. While I backed the Heat in Game 1, I feel that the value lies with the total for Game 2. As you probably saw, the opener was relatively high-scoring. The UNDER is still 8-3-1 in Miami playoff games. The UNDER was a perfect 3-0 after the previous three (the two 'unders' and the push) which didn't fall below the total. Off their most recent 'over,' the Heat allowed just 85 points in their next game. Off their previous 'over,' the they scored just 79 in their next game. The Celtics, for their part, have seen the UNDER go 7-3 the past 10 times that they were off a double-digit loss. The last time that they were off a d.d. loss, they responded by allowing only 86 points their next time out, a game which stayed below the total by roughly 20 points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 6-2-1 the past nine, when the Heat were leading in a playoff series. |
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05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW. The Mavs were certainly impressive in disposing of Phoenix. I really like how this one sets up for the Warriors though. Not only are they playing at home but they've got the advantage of playing with extra rest. At this time of the year, for this team, I believe that will work in their favor. Note that the Warriors are 6-3 ATS (8-1 SU) when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Last time in that situation, they won by 30. While the Mavs won the most recent meeting, the Warriors are a dominant 22-11 ATS (27-6 SU) their last 33 in the revenge role. Going back further finds the at 69-45 ATS when playing with revenge. During that span, the Mavs are 19-24 when coming off an upset victory. Warriors roll. |
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -1.5 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Great job by the Celtics to knock off the defending champs. The Heat are a different beast though. They're more well rounded (not as one-dimensional) than the Bucks on offense and they're even stingier on defense. They allow just 103.9 ppg, 104.6 ppg overall. The Heat had the best homecourt record (and overall) in the East. Butler may not get the numbers that Giannis does but he continues to prove to be the ultimate competitor. While it still may not be enough time to get Lowry back, the extra rest between games also figures to favor Miami. The Heat are 4-0 SU/ATS the past four times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games, 11-4-1 ATS (13-3 SU) their last 16 in that situation. Fresher down the stretch, look for the Heat to grab Game 1, covering the small number along the way. |
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05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | Top | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. While they failed to close things out in Dallas, this what the Suns worked so hard for during the regular season. The chance to play this game on their home floor. I like that the teams play with two day's rest in between game. Other than the first game, where they both had some rest before (Suns won and covered) each other game has had one day's worth of rest in between games. Therefore, it's worth noting that the Suns are 14-1 SU and 9-5-1 ATS the past 15 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Even better, they're 17-4 ATS (18-3 SU) the past 21 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. It's tough to beat this team twice in a row. Already 3-0 SU/ATS when tied in a series, expect the Suns to rise to the occasion with another big win and cover. |
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05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW. I lost with the Warriors last game but I'm coming right back with them tonight. Needless to say, the Warriors weren't happy with their play on Wednesday. They turned the ball over way too many times and just weren't themselves. They allowed 134 points, a whopping 77 in the first half. That was the most they allowed all season. The only previous time this season that they allowed more than 130 points was on Dec. 7th, when they gave up 131 at Denver. The next game, they returned home and bounced back with an efficient and dominant double-digit win over the Clippers. Angry with themselves and now more well aware than ever that they need to close the deal tonight, (and not risk going back to Memphis) I expect the Warriors to again bounce back with a huge effort. They're 21-11 ATS (26-6 SU) when playing with 'revenge' and I expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
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05-13-22 | Celtics v. Bucks -120 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. (ML) Homecourt hasn't meant much in this series of late. I expect that to change this evening. While they lost here last game, the Bucks are still 30-16 here. The Celtics, on the other hand, are 26-19 on the road. Going back further finds Boston at 61-55 on the road and Milwaukee at 94-30 at home. Indeed, homecourt matters. It's true that the Bucks haven't fared well when leading in this series. However, they're still 9-4 SU (8-5 ATS) the last 13 times that they were leading in a series. Now, they have a chance to close the deal at home. Remember, the Bucks are still the champs. They know how to win these games. Giannis noted: "It's great to go back home and feel good about ourselves, but the job is not done." Tonight, he finishes the job. The Celtics are now an impressive 6-0 ATS their last seven visits here. However, the Bucks are still 4-2 SU in those games. With two of those four wins having come by a single bucket, I'm electing to lay the very short price on the money-line. |
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05-12-22 | Suns -1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 86-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. While everyone loves a Game 7, I don't see this series "going the distance." Rather, I believe the Suns will close things out tonight. As you're likely aware, the home team has won and covered every game in this series, thus far. So, it would be easy to make a case for the Mavs. Every game is unique though. I believe that the Suns "turned the corner" in the second half of the last game. That one was close at halftime but the Suns elevated their defense after the break. In fact, they would limit the Mavs to a mere 34 second half points. Remember, prior to losing Game 3 and 4, the Suns were a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four visits here, 9-1 ATS (8-2 SU) their previous 10. So, they do indeed know how to win here. Booker, Paul and co. can smell the blood in the water. They know this is their chance. They know that if they get past here that every remaining potential opponent has shown vulnerabilities. Phoenix coach Monty Williams said this of the big Game 5 win: "It was the defense. When we get stops like that and are able to get out in transition, it gets us going ... And I firmly believe that defense travels. It's the one thing you can do in any gym." Expect that to be the case tonight. The Suns punch their ticket to the Western Conf. Finals, covering the small number along the way. |
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05-12-22 | Heat +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 99-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. While everyone loves a Game 7, I don't see this series "going the distance." Rather, I believe the Heat will close things out tonight. As you're likely aware, the home team has won and covered every game in this series, thus far. So, it would be easy to make a case for the Mavs. Every game is unique though. I believe that the Heat "turned the corner" last game. The 35-point blowout was never close. They took the fight right out of Philadelphia. Embiid deserves credit for an excellent season but he's not quite himself right now. Already dealing with other issues, he may have tweaked his back last game, too. The following statement by him gives an idea where his head is at: "This is a ‘lose-lose' situation for me. If I don't play, I probably get called soft and if I play and I play bad, they probably come up with a bunch of stuff that I guess he's just not good enough ... " While what he's saying may be partly true, it's still not a good thing for Philadelphia to hear Embid talking like that. Even without Lowry, the Heat are extremely deep. They've also got a real 'leader' in Jimmy Butler, something the 76'ers arguably don't have. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said this of Butler: "He's a great competitor at his core. When you get into a competition, he understands the full deal -- that you have to do it on both ends. And he's able to compete with a ferocity and an incredibly stable mind. That is really unique ..." The Heat are a dominant 17-6-1 ATS as underdogs. Expect them to improve on those stats here. |
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05-11-22 | Warriors -2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-134 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW. Even if Morant was 100% healthy and expected to play, (he's not) I'd be backing the Warriors in this game. While I respect what they've done to get this far, I feel that the Grizzlies are outmatched and that they've missed their opportunity. Indeed, the Grizzlies had their chances to steal the last game which would have made everything different. To come so close, only to fall short, will be tough to recover from. It's a tough one. As Tyus: "It's a tough pill to swallow. It felt like we were leading the whole game. It felt like we were in a good position. It felt like we put ourselves in a good position to win a ballgame and things didn't go our way down the stretch." The battle tested and well-coached Warriors (with or without Kerr) have been here before. They know the importance of taking care of business now and not having to play another game. They'll smell the blood in the water and they'll seal the deal, covering the small number along the way. |
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05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 80-110 | Win | 100 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHOENIX. Give the Mavs credit for holding serve at home. The home team is now 4-0 (SU and ATS) in the series. The series shifts back to Phoenix for Game 5 though; I expect homecourt to again prove significant. The Suns have been very tough to beat here all season. They won the first two games of the series here by seven and 20 points. They're 36-10 here overall and they've outscored visiting teams to an average of 115.7 to 106.8. By comparison, the Mavs are a modest 25-21 on the road and they've actually been outscored (108-107.8) in their road games overall. The Suns are still 16-4 ATS their last 20 their last 20 in the revenge role and 65-35 ATS, excluding pushes, their last 100 in that situation. They're 2-0 ATS when tied in a playoff series in these playoffs. In this situation, tied 2-2, in the first round, they won 112-97. The last time that they were off b2b losses, they responded with a double-digit win. I'm expecting more of the same on Tuesday. |
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05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 38 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Give the 76'ers credit for holding serve at home. The home team is now 4-0 (SU and ATS) in the series. The series shifts back to Miami for Game 5 though; I expect homecourt to again prove significant. The Heat have been very tough to beat here all season. They won the first two games of the series here by 14 and 16 points. They're 34-12 here overall and they've limited visiting teams to an average of only 104.3 points. They're still averaging only 99.7 points against for the playoffs. Back on their home flloor, look for the Heat to bounce back and improve to 19-10-1 ATS (21-9 SU) the past 30 times that they played with 'revenge.' |
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05-09-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 211.5 | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on the OVER. The O/U lines in this series keep getting lower. Consider that the first one game of the series had an O/U line of 218.5. When these teams met at Christmas, the O/U line was 228.5 and when they faced each here other last spring, the O/U line was 235. Needless to say, we're working with a lower O/U number here. I believe it'll prove to be too low. With the first three games all staying below the number, note that the Celtics have seen the OVER go 6-3 the past nine times that their previous three games fell below the total. Also, note that Boston road games have been higher-scoring than Boston home games. When the Celtics play on the road, their games average 217.7. Meanwhile, even factoring in the relatively low-scoring Game 3, Milwaukee home games are averaging a healthy 224.5 points. Both teams shot poorly last game. Boston hit 36.8% of its field goals and 27.3% of its 3-point shots. Milwaukee hit 26.5% of its 3-point shots and 40.4% of its field goals. Yet, they still got to 204. I'm expecting improved shooting percentages to lead to a significantly higher final score. |
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05-08-22 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 207 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing in Miami/Philadelphia OVER the total. After a low-scoring opening game, one where the 76'ers offense struggled, I came back with the 'over' in the next game. I included an excerpt of what I said as I feel this one sets up similarly: "...While I respect both these defenses, I believe this O/U line will prove to be too low. The 76'ers scored only 92 points last game but they aren't going to be held back again. Even without Embiid, this team can and will score. The last time that the 76'ers scored less than 100, they responded by putting up 132 in their next game. The previous time that it happened, they scored 144 in their next game. The time before that, they scored 113. Before that 121 and before that, they scored 123. You get the idea. In each case, off a sup-par offensive effort, the 76'ers bounced back. Overall, the OVER is 13-7 the past 20 times that Philadelphia was off a game where it scored 100 or fewer points. Stopping the Heat, however, will be a different matter. While the 76'ers only allow 107 ppg, the OVER is 25-14 when Miami faced a team which allows 107 or fewer points per game. They've scored at least 106 in 12 of their past 13 games and they average more than 110 here. Keep in mind that the 3-point shooting was terrible in Game 1; the teams combined to go 15 of 70. Yet, they still nearly got to 200. I'm expecting that 3-point percentage to improve and for this one to finish above the low number ..." Sure enough, the 76'ers bounced back with a better offensive effort. Sure enough, they also couldn't stop the Heat. This time, it's the Heat who are off a bad offensive game. They scored only 79. That's not going to happen again. Their Game 3 effort marked the 16th time this season that the Heat scored "double-digits." In ALL 15 previous cases, they responded by hitting "triple-digits" in their next game. I feel confident that they'll do so again. Slowing down the 76'ers will be more difficult. The 76'ers are the favorites in this game. So, if the Heat are scoring triple-digits, they likely will be doing the same. They average 110 ppg on this floor. The OVER is 19-9 the past 28 times that Miami played with revenge. Look for the combined final score to find its way OVER the low number, once again. |
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05-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 112-142 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on GSW. I love how this one sets up for the Warriors. They haven't covered for awhile and are off a loss. That's helped to keep the line lower than it could have been. While the Warriors may have dropped Game 2 and may have failed to cover the two games at Memphis, they did, in fact, accomplish what they needed to. They earned a split and are now back home. Remember, this is a highly (playoff) experienced and very well-coached team which knows how to get it done, in this very situation. It also favors the Warriors that there has been a few days off in between games. They're 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS the past eight times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. During the same span, the Grizzlies are 0-2-1 ATS (0-3 SU) when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. They're just 2-7 SU their last nine in that situation. These teams have met four straight times at Memphis now. The Warriors won the last meeting here by nine points though. They're 25-6 SU and 20-11 ATS the past 31 times that they played with 'revenge.' I'm expecting a double-digit win. |
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05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 212.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Milwaukee OVER the total. While the defenses took center stage on Friday night, I expect the offenses to come alive in this one. Keep in mind that the series is now shifting to Milwaukee. Boston's last visit here produced 248 points. The previous meeting here finished with 230. In fact, each of the past six times that the Celtics have played here, the game has finished above the total. All six games finished with a minimum of 230 combined points, too. Yet, we're working with an even lower O/U line than we were for the games at Boston. Not only do games here average 225 points, but Boston road games average more than Boston home games. Its also worth mentioning that the teams have had the past few days off and that each has been a profitable 'over' team, when playing with three or more day's rest in between games. Look for a relatively high-scoring affair, the OVER improving to 5-2-1 the past eight times that the Bucks were tied in a playoff series. |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 219.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Phoenix/Dallas UNDER the total. The first two games at Phoenix both finished above the total. Those results have rewarded us with the highest O/U line of the series, thus far. I believe it'll prove to be too high and that the relatively big number is offering excellent value. Keep in mind that the Mavs allowed just 77 points the last time that they were on this floor, a 102-77 win over the Jazz. In fact, the UNDER is 29-14-1 in their games here. Games here average only 109.4 points, the Mavs allowing a mere 101.5. The last time that the Suns played here, the O/U line was 216.5 and the teams combined for 210. Each of the Suns' past three visits here have finished with 217 or fewer combined points. Look for this one to do the same. |
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05-04-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 207 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Philadelphia OVER the total. While I respect both these defenses, I believe this O/U line will prove to be too low. The 76'ers scored only 92 points last game but they aren't going to be held back again. Even without Embiid, this team can and will score. The last time that the 76'ers scored less than 100, they responded by putting up 132 in their next game. The previous time that it happened, they scored 144 in their next game. The time before that, they scored 113. Before that 121 and before that, they scored 123. You get the idea. In each case, off a sup-par offensive effort, the 76'ers bounced back. Overall, the OVER is 13-7 the past 20 times that Philadelphia was off a game where it scored 100 or fewer points. Stopping the Heat, however, will be a different matter. While the 76'ers only allow 107 ppg, the OVER is 25-14 when Miami faced a team which allows 107 or fewer points per game. They've scored at least 106 in 12 of their past 13 games and they average more than 110 here. Keep in mind that the 3-point shooting was terrible in Game 1; the teams combined to go 15 of 70. Yet, they still nearly got to 200. I'm expecting that 3-point percentage to improve and for this one to finish above the low number. |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON. After dropping Game 1, needless to say, the Celtics can't afford to lose this one. I expect them to respond with their very best effort. While they didn't fare well in Game 1, the Celtics have typically bounced back from bad losses all season long. They're 7-2 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss and 11-5 ATS (12-4 SU) off a SU loss, when listed as a favorite. Going back further finds them at 21-10 SU/ATS when off a double-digit loss. On the other hand, the Bucks are just 3-9 ATS the past 12 times that they were off an upset win, 1-4 ATS their past five in that situation. Al Horford said this, after the Game 1 loss: "This one should hurt a little bit. We have an opportunity now to learn from this game, see how we can be better as a group and come out and do that Tuesday." Jaylen Brown added: "They hit us in the mouth so we gotta be ready for the next one." Expect the Boston stars, Tatum and Brown, to be better as the Celtics level the series, covering the relatively small number along the way. |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 215 | Top | 86-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boston/Milwaukee OVER the total. This O/U line is lower than Game 1 and its much lower than the regular season games. While Game 1 was low-scoring, I'm expecting a lot more points this evening. As Jaylen Brown noted: "Give credit to Milwaukee. They did a good job and had a good plan, but we missed a lot of open shots." The OVER is 6-1 the past seven times that Boston played with one day's rest in between games. The OVER is also 7-1 the past eight times that Boston was trailing in a playoff series. Additionally, the OVER is 4-1 the past five times that Milwaukee was off an 'upset victory.' With Milwaukee road games still averaging greater than 226 points, look for this one to find its way above the low number. |
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05-02-22 | 76ers v. Heat -4 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 84 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. While I won with the 76'ers in their last game, this is a whole different deal. Philadelphia was fortunate to draw Toronto in the first round and still struggled. This year's Miami team is loaded. Expect them to start the series with a convincing double-digit victory. |
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05-01-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON. The home team won and covered all four regular season meetings between these teams. I expect homecourt to again prove significant on Sunday. The Celtics had arguably a tougher first round opponent than the Bucks. Yet, their series wasn't even close. They swept the Nets in four games. They're playing at a very high level. They're also healthy, rested and playing at home. The Bucks were able to survive, and even thrive, without Middleton against the Bulls. However, he's a big piece of this Milwaukee team and his absence will be felt now that the champs are stepping up in class and playing at the far more difficult venue. While both teams are well-rested, the Celtics are 10-5-1 ATS the past 16 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games while the Bucks are 5-11 ATS the last 16 times that they played with three or more day's rest. The Bucks are 6-9 ATS the last 15 times that they faced a team with a winning record. During the same span, the Celtics are 16-5-1 ATS (17-5 SU) when facing a team with a winning record. I'm laying the small number. |
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04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves OVER 228.5 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis/Minnesota OVER the total. The O/U lines were much higher to begin this series. However, with three of the last four games falling below the total, the number has fallen. In tonight's case, I believe it'll prove to be too low. Needless to say, both teams can really score. The Grizzlies average 115.6 ppg. The T-Wolves average 115.5. While the last two games at Memphis have been relatively low-scoring, the last game here at Minnesota finished with 237 points. That game (Game 4) happened to be the only previous time that the T-Wolves were trailing in the series. They were down 2-1, entering that game. Now, they're down 3-2. That's noteworthy as the OVER is now 12-6 the past 18 times that the Grizzlies were leading in a playoff series. The OVER is 10-6-2 when Memphis played with two day's rest in between games, 9-6 when Minnesota did so. Both teams connected on a high percentage of their shots in the last game here and I see both teams putting up a big number again tonight. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
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04-28-22 | Mavs v. Jazz | Top | 98-96 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. While they haven't played well, the Jazz aren't done yet. They've had the past two days off to "regroup" and I expect them to be at their very best tonight. Note that the Jazz are 18-10-2 ATS (24-6 SU) the past 30 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. Remember, the Jazz are still 30-13 at home; the Mavs are 24-19 on the road. Dallas gives up 107.4 on the road, while Utah gives up 107.2 at home. However, while the Mavs average only 107.9 on the road, the Jazz average 116.4 here at home. With the exception of Game 3, the Jazz have had their way with the Mavs here. Expect them to extend the series for another day. |
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04-28-22 | 76ers -1 v. Raptors | Top | 132-97 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Raptors defied the odds to get this far. Down 3-0, they've rallied with b2b wins to force a Game 6, on their home floor. Many will now be sure that this series will go the distance. While I respect what the Raptors have done, I'm not among those who think there will be a Game 7. Ultimately, I feel that Embiid and Harden, with help from the likes of Harris, Maxey and Currey will prove to be too much. I expect that to finally happen here. The Raptors held Philadelphia to 88 points last game. However, they're just 1-5 SU/ATS when allowing 90 or fewer points in their previous game, 7-14 ATS after allowing 100 or less. The 76'ers, on the other hand, are 12-7 ATS (15-4 SU) after scoring 100 or less. The series ends here. |
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04-26-22 | Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 215.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO/Phoenix UNDER the total. With the series knotted at 2-2, I expect to see some real defensive intensity in this one. Phoenix tends to respond to bad losses by really ramping up its defense. The Suns were off a loss in Game 2. Even including Game 3 going 'over' the total, the UNDER is still a profitable 8-2 the past 10 times that they were off a double-digit loss, 10-4 when they were off an 'upset' loss. The Pelicans have started to show they're capable of playing defense themselves. They limited the Suns to 103 last game. Remember, they held the Spurs and Clippers to 103 and 101 in those big games to get here. The UNDER is 19-6 the past 25 times that they were off a double-digit win and 4-0 the past four times that they'd seen their previous three games fall below the total. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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04-25-22 | Raptors v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 103-88 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Raptors deserve a lot of credit. It would have been easier to just fold and give up. They didn't though. Their Game 4 victory prevented the 4-0 sweep. While the well-coached Raptors clearly have pride, this series is still over. The 76'ers will make sure of that tonight. Even if they weren't banged-up, the Raptors are simply outmatched. Neither of the first two games here were close. The 76'ers won by 20 and by 15. The last time that the 76'ers were off a loss, they bounced back with a 13-point win. Off their previous loss, they bounced back with a 30-point win. Also very well-coached, the 76'ers know they can't afford to mess around. They won't. Expect them to be "all business," en route to another convincing double-digit victory. |
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04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO. The Pelicans couldn't take advantage of the Booker-less Suns in Game 3. However, I expect them to do so this evening. I've pointed out that I really believe the Pelicans are better than many realize. The "three-headed monster" of Igram, Valanciunas and CJ McCollum is indeed formidable. The last time that they were trailing in a playoff series, after their Game 1 loss, they responded with a double-digit win in their next game. Overall, they're a respectable 28-22 ATS in the revenge role. Keep in mind that this team is far better now than it was earlier in the season; adding McCollum made a huge difference. The Suns, meanwhile, are a modest 4-5 SU/ATS in April. Bookier isn't just any player and they'll miss him in this one. I'll grab the points but I expect NO to win outright and even the series. |
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04-24-22 | Heat v. Hawks OVER 220.5 | Top | 110-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Atlanta OVER the total. I had a tough half point loss on the 'over' the in the last game. It finished with 221. Due to the way it played out, there was no intentional fouling at the end of that game, which obviously didn't help matters. Either way, I'm expecting plenty of points in this one. The Hawks are back in it and believing in themselves again. Young has found his groove and will come in confident. Their defense remains suspect though and the Heat have a lot of weapons, even if Lowry is unable to go. Having lost the last game, note that the OVER is 19-7 the past 26 times that the Heat faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. Games here are still averaging 228.3 points. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
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04-23-22 | Mavs v. Jazz -4.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. Much of the talk before each game has revolved around the status of Doncic. So far, the Mavs haven't needed him. He's expected to return for Game 4. With or without Doncic, it's going to be difficult for the Mavs to shoot as well as they did in Game 3. Keep in mind that other players tend to let down a little when a star returns. Yes, the Mavs were 2-1 in the games that Doncic played against the Jazz this season. However, both those wins were at Dallas. Doncic had a double-double here in February and the Jazz still won. In fact, prior to Thursday night, the Jazz had beaten the Mavs 11 straight times here. The Mavs last win here had been in April of 2016. Note that the Mavs are 1-3 SU/ATS the past four times that they were leading in a playoff series. Backs against the wall, I expect the best from the Jazz. Look for them to resume their homecourt dominance in this series and for them to improve to 7-3 SU/ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. |
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04-23-22 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 213 | Top | 102-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tor/Phi OVER the total. This is the lowest O/U line of the series. I believe it'll prove to be too low. With the 76'ers up 3-0, this series is very likely finished. It's possible the Raptors could win today but they aren't going to win four straight. That takes a little of the pressure off and often leads to a higher-scoring game. I expect that to be the case here. I also like that there's been two day's off in between games. (Each of the first games only had one day off in between them.) The last two times that the 76'ers played with two day's rest, the games had final scores of 229 and 230. The last time that Toronto had two day's off in between games, it scored 117. The OVER was 7-5 on the season when the Raptors played with two day's rest in between games. Look for those stats to improve this afternoon. |
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04-22-22 | Bucks -2 v. Bulls | Top | 111-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. The Bulls got their split in the two games at Milwaukee. Now, they catch the Bucks without a key player in Middleton. However, the champs have been here before. I expect them to bounce back with their best effort. The Bucks are 5-1 SU/ATS the past six times that they were tied in a playoff series. During that span, the Bulls were 0-0 when tied in a playoff series. I expect that difference in recent playoff experience to prove important this evening. The Bulls are doing some trash-talking about Giannis but he's still the best player on the floor. Even with those ATS wins at Milwaukee, the Bulls remain a poor 14-21 ATS (10-25 SU) in the underdog role. In fact, they're 0-5 ATS the past five times that they were home underdogs. The Bucks have dominated the Bulls here over the years, too. This has been like a home-away-from-home. Behind a huge game from Giannis, expect them to regain control of the series. |
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04-22-22 | Heat v. Hawks OVER 221 | Top | 110-111 | Push | 0 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Atlanta OVER the total. After a low-scoring opener, the second game was considerably higher-scoring. With the series shifting to Atlanta, I expect this one to be the highest yet. The Heat saw the OVER go 25-16 on the road. They've score more than 110 points in seven straight games. With so many weapons, they are difficult to stop. Not by a defensively-challenged team like Atlanta, at least. Every team scores against the Hawks. In fact, their last 29 opponents have ALL reached triple-digits. The Hawks can score with the best of them though, particularly here at Atlanta. On the road, the Hawks are averaging a respectable 110.5. However, here at home, they average 117 ppg. That's the most home ppg in the Eastern Conference and second most in the NBA. While slowing down the Heat may still prove difficult, the Hawks are very likely going to score more tonight than they did in the games at Miami. Look for the OVER to improve to 18-11-1 the past 30 times that the Hawks played a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. |
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04-21-22 | Mavs v. Jazz OVER 210.5 | Top | 126-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah/Dallas OVER the total. These teams combined for 214, even without Doncic in Game 2. With two days off, the series shifting to Utah and Dallas potentially getting back its superstar, I'm expecting a relatively high-scoring affair tonight. Dallas has played higher-scoring games on the road than at home this season. The Mavs score roughly the same number of points on the road as they do at home (108 at home and 107.7 on the road) but they allow considerably more on the road. (At home they allow 102 but on the road they allow 107.4) So, Dallas road games are averaging just over 215 points. Meanwhile, the opposite is true for the Jazz. They score a whopping 116.8 ppg here at home, compared to 110 ppg on the road. Yet, they allow roughly the same, 106.9 compared to 107.9. So, Utah home games average 223.7 points. Needless to say, we're working with a much lower number than that. (Each of the last eight times that the Jazz were the host, these teams combined for at least 219 points.) The Jazz have seen the OVER go 5-3 when playing with two day's rest in between games. The Mavs have seen the OVER go 6-4-1 when doing so. Going back a bit further finds the OVER at 16-9-1 when the Mavs played with two day's rest in between games. Including the Game 2 result, the Jazz have now seen the OVER go 15-5 their last 20 playoff games, 11-3 in the first round. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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04-20-22 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 224.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/Milwaukee OVER the total. The first game of the series was very low-scoring. That result has provided us with a much lower O/U line for tonight's game. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Bulls still average more than 111 ppg, including 108.5 ppg on the road. The last time that they failed to reach triple-digits, their next game finished with 250 points. Including that 133-117 loss, the OVER is 13-3 the past 16 times that Chicago failed to score 100 or more points in its previous game. While the Bulls will surely score more than they did in Game 1, the Bucks will as well. Prior to Game 1, they'd scored 115, 131, 127, 127, 112, 119, 120 and 118 in their previous eight games. In their previous two games against the Bulls, they scored 127 and 126. The last three times that the Bucks failed to reach triple digits, they scored 124, 133 and 114 in their next game. Those games, which had final combined scores of 231, 260 and 235 all finished above the total. Expect this one to do the same. |
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04-20-22 | Nets v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 37 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on BOSTON. You probably saw the exciting ending to Game 1. (In case you missed it, Tatum won it at the buzzer for Boston.) The Nets had their chance to steal that game but couldn't take advantage. I see that as a missed opportunity for the Nets, as I don't see the Celtics providing them a similar chance this evening. That Game 1 victory is the type that a team can build momentum from. Marcus Smart commented: "It was fulfilling for us, especially because of the way we started this year off, those types of games we lost ... But the resilience that we have, the approach we have, and the work we put in to make sure that doesn't happen ..." I backed the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2 of their series and noted that this is still a "team game." In this case, I believe that the Celtics are the more complete "team." Clearly, Durant and Irving are extremely dangerous. The Celtics arguably have the superior depth though. They're more well-rounded and generally play more as a "team." Durant and Irving were the only Net players to reach 20 points in Game 1. The Celtics, on the other hand, had four players score at least 20 points. It should also be mentioned that Boston outscored Brooklyn by a 56-32 margin "in the paint" in Game 1 and that the Celtics should enjoy the edge inside once again. The Celtics are a perfect 5-0 ATS the past five times that they played with two day's worth or rest in between games. They were 11-2 SU when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. Look for them to take a 2-0 series lead, improving to 17-7-1 ATS (19-6 SU) their last 25 games with an O/U line of 220 or greater. |
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04-19-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies UNDER 241.5 | Top | 96-124 | Win | 100 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis/Minnesota UNDER the total. The O/U line for Game 1 was already really high. When the final score of that game finished above the number, the O/U line for Game 2 opened up even higher. I believe it'll prove to be too high. Obviously, both teams can really score. Still, they're being asked to score 60 points in every quarter. That's asking a lot. Yes, games here have been high-scoring. They still average "only" 226 points though. Prior to Game 1, the previous three meetings between these teams had scores of 233, 224 and 233. All high-scoring, but none high enough to reach this massive total. Also, consider that the UNDER is 13-6 the past 19 times that Memphis allowed 130 or more points in its previous game. The last time that the Grizzlies were off an "upset" loss, they responded by allowing just 98 points in their next game. Look for the Grizzlies to bounce back with a much better defensive effort, the UNDER improving to 7-2-1 the past 10 times that they'd played their previous three games at home. |
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04-18-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. The Mavs aren't being given much respect. I feel that they're providing us excellent value here though. Doncic may be the superstar but this is still a team game. He wasn't the only one that got them this far. Obviously, this is must win territory for the Mavs. They can't afford to drop both games at home. They'll face a Utah team which is just 1-7 ATS the past eight times that it played with one day's rest in between games. The Jazz are also 18-24 ATS (21-21 SU) on the road. Really, the Mavs would have covered Game 1, if they were better at the free throw line. Spencer Dinwiddie noted: "Personally, I've been thinking about the fact we lost by six and I missed six free throws, right? So if anything, this should be encouraging for the fan base, in my opinion. Give them credit. They won the game. ... But we had our chances to win it. And we just didn't do it. Myself, first and foremost: It's inexcusable in a playoff game to miss six free throws." Despite coming up short Saturday, the Mavs are still 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 meetings here. Even better, they're an outstanding 16-3 ATS the past 19 times that they failed to exceed 100 points in their previous game, a highly profitable 26-8 SU/ATS their last 34 in that situation. I'm grabbing the points. |
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04-18-22 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 218 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on Toronto/Philadelphia UNDER the total. The 76'ers won the first game by a score of 131-111. As I backed the 76'ers, that result was just fine by me. That result has also provided us with a (slightly) higher O/U line to work with for tonight's game. Off that blowout loss, I expect a much better defensive effort from the Raptors in this one. The last time that they allowed more than 125 points, the Raptors won their next game by a score of 93-88. That happened to be right here, at Philadelphia. It's also worth mentioning that the UNDER is 3-1 the past four times that Toronto was trailing in a playoff series. Meanwhile, the 76'ers have seen the UNDER go 17-11 when off a double-digit win. Remember, these teams both rank in the top 10 in the NBA, in terms of points allowed per game. In what should be a more competitive affair, look for the UNDER to improve to 20-13 the past 33 times that the 76'ers were leading in a playoff series. |
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04-17-22 | Pelicans v. Suns OVER 224 | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Phoenix/NO OVER the total. The Suns are off another great season. They come in with something to prove. Averaging 115.5 ppg on this floor, while connecting with 49% of their field goals, they're going to be tough to stop. The Pelicans aren't exactly stingy either. They're allowing more than 113 ppg the past five games, opposing teams hitting 50.5% of their field goals in those games. They always score though. In fact, the Pelicans have hit "triple-digits" in 19 straight games and 23 of their past 24. (They scored 97 in the other.) Not surprisingly, the Pelicans hit triple-digits in all four of this season's games vs. the Suns. In the last three of those, they scored 110, 117 and 115. As I mentioned before their last game, the trio of McCollum, Valanciunas and Ingram is very tough to stop. Expect the Suns to put up a big number and the Pelicans to chip in plenty of their own, sending the combined final score over the relatively low total. |
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04-17-22 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 91-115 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Give the Hawks credit for getting here. They're a tough team and they've shown that they can win in the playoffs. That said, I expect those play-in games, particularly the last one against Cleveland, to catch up with them here. Remember, Miami was the best team in the East. Already loaded, the Heat added Lowry. This is their time. Unlike their guests, the Heat have had time to get healthy. Abebayo has been cleared to play. On the other hand, Capela went down for Atlanta in the last game. That's a huge blow. Keep in mind that the Hawks are just 47-74 ATS on the road the past few seasons, 15-27 ATS this year. The Heat are 9-4-1 ATS (11-3 SU) the past 13 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. They're also 10-4 SU/ATS off a double-digit loss. Expect the Heat to make a statement, pulling away for a convincing double-digit win. |
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04-16-22 | Raptors v. 76ers -4 | Top | 111-131 | Win | 100 | 72 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The 76'ers aren't being given much respect here. I feel that they could easily be bigger favorites. The 76'ers are more efficient at home than Toronto is on the road. The 76'ers connect on 46.6% of their shots here. The Raptors, on the other hand, hit 43.7% of their shots on the road. The 76'ers allow opposing teams to hit 45.9% of their shots. Toronto allows host teams to connect on 48.6% of their shots. Both teams last played on 4/10. That break figures to favor Philly. Consider that the 76'ers are 3-0 SU/ATS the past three times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. Going back further finds them at 6-2-1 ATS (8-1 SU) the past nine times that they played with three or more day's rest. During the same span, the Raptors are just 3-6 SU/ATS when playing with three day's rest in between games. Expect the 76'ers to draw first blood, covering the small number along the way. |
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04-15-22 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO. I absolutely respect the Clippers. They started playing their best basketball down the stretch, including a big win over these same Pelicans to start the month. That said, I expect them to have their hands full tonight. As you probably saw, the Clippers lost to the T-Wolves on Tuesday. The next day, the Pelicans took care of business against the Spurs. So, they're the team which comes in with some positive momentum. The Pelicans arguably also have less pressure on them. I believe that makes them very dangerous. While Zion remains out, the trio of Valanciunus, McCollum and Ingram is very formidable and coming in full of confidence. Valanciunus is an absolute load under the net. He's off a 22/14 game. McCollum, a playoff veteran and calming presence, came through for 32 points. Ingram sealed the deal with 27 points of his own. San Antonio coach Greg Popovich had this to say: "The three best players for New Orleans all played great, and if that happens, you're going to lose." Momemtum on their side, facing a Clipper team which is 1-10 ATS the last 11 times it played with two day's rest in between games, I'm grabbing the points with the Pelicans. |
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04-13-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans OVER 225 | Top | 103-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on SA/NO OVER the total. Yesterday's play-in games were both low-scoring. We should see some more offense from tonight's games though. In this case, I expect the O/U line to prove to be too low. The Pelicans last five games are averaging 232.4 points. They'll face a SA team which has seen its games average greater than 226 points this season. The Pelicans should have the likes of Valanciunas and Ingram in the lineup and they will be tough to stop. The Spurs don't quit though and will keep fighting the entire way. They feel that they're coming in with something to prove. Over the years, the OVER is 186-134, excluding pushes, when the Spurs were off a double-digit loss. Expect those stats to improve tonight. |
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04-12-22 | Clippers v. Wolves UNDER 230.5 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Minnesota UNDER the total. These teams met four times in the regular season. Those games had O/U lines of 215.5, 220.5, 215.5 and 213.5. Needless to say, we're working with a much higher O/U number here. It's also much higher than any O/U line which LA has seen in quite some time. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. While the first meeting was high-scoring, the next three had scores of 188, 231 and 226. The Clippers have held their last two opponents below 100 points and they've held each of their past four opponnts to 109 or less. Three of those four games fell below the number, bringing the UNDER to 13-7 their last 20 "April" games. Indeed, the Clippers know how to play defense at this time of the year. Speaking of defense, remember that former Clipper " defensive pest" Patrick Beverly now plays for Minnesota. He'll be doing his best to get Paul George off his game. When the smoke clears, look for the final combined score to stay beneath the big number. |
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04-10-22 | Raptors v. Knicks OVER 224 | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on TO/NY OVER the total. While the Knicks have been on an 'under' streak of late, I expect this evening's season finale to be higher-scoring. The Raptors' seed is already locked up. While they are saying all the right things about wanting to build momentum, they essentially have nothing to play for. Unlike their hosts, the Raptors have been seeing their recent games finish above the total. They've scored at least 117 in three straight and at least 115 in seven of their past nine. The Knicks, already without a number of players, will be without Barrett. That's helping to keep the line a little lower than it easily could have been. Keep in mind that they still have plenty of players who can score. They've still scored at least 114 in three of their past five. Like Toronto, they have nothing to play for. That being the case, I expect this game to have an up-tempo pace and for there to be less defensive intensity than normal. Look for the OVER to improve to 31-18-1 the past 50 times that the Knicks were off a double-digit loss. |
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04-08-22 | Thunder v. Lakers OVER 227 | Top | 101-120 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC/LA OVER the total. No reason for defense in this one; I'm expecting the game to have an "exhibition like" feel. In other words, a fast tempo without a lot of defense. The Lakers entered last night's game allowing an average of 122.8 ppg over their past five games. They exceeded that average, giving up 128. They've now allowed a minimum of 114 points in 14 straight games. The Thunder, meanwhile, allowed a whopping 137 last game. They couldn't stop the Jazz. The Lakers' most recent home game produced 247 points. Expect more fireworks in this one. |
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04-08-22 | Suns v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. While the Suns, who have already locked up the #1 seed, are expected to play their starters, they're unlikely to log really heavy minutes. Even if they do, I expect this game to mean more to the Jazz. After largely struggling for the second half of March, the Jazz have finally put it together their past couple of games. Playing their regular season home finale, against a possible future playoff opponent, they really need to keep that positive momentum going. The Suns outscore teams by an impressive 114.3 to 108.1 average score on the road. However, the Jazz are 29-11 here, outscoring visiting teams by an average score of 117.1 to 106.8. Look for a motivated Jazz team to improve to 50-17 SU their last 67 games here, when the O/U line was 220 or more, picking up the cover along the way. |
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04-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -2.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. The Nuggets need this one more than the Grizzlies. A lot more. The Nuggets lost an important one last time out, prompting Aaron Gordon to remark: "It's a bad loss for us. We just didn't take advantage of the opportunity that was presented to us and it's frustrating, but we know we have two games left. Our focus is on that just now." With a win tonight (or one in their final game) the Nuggets can avoid the play-in tournament. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are locked into their spot. The Grizzlies are likely to be without Morant, Brooks, and/or others. The Nuggets, 4-1 ATS their last five when coming off a double-digit loss, are playing with triple-revenge against a team they may well face in the playoffs. The Nuggets are 26-14-2 ATS (27-15 SU) the past 42 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Expect their best effort to lead to a critical win and cover. |
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04-07-22 | Blazers v. Pelicans OVER 223.5 | Top | 94-127 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Portland/NO OVER the total. The Pelicans, who have scored at least 114 in four of their past five games and who have reached triple-digits in 24 straight games, will be licking their chops for this matchup. That's because the Blazers almost never play defense. Prior to their last game, a low-scoring affair against OKC, the Blazers had allowed 113 or more points in 20 straight games. On the season, they're allowing an average of 115.9 ppg on the road. These teams combined for 224 points in a recent game at Portland. That game snuck under the O/U number. We're working with a (slightly) lower O/U number this evening, providing line value. Yet, the Pelicans score more points AND allow more points, in their games here at New Orleans. They're going to put up a big number in this one. With the Pelicans having won that recent meeting, note that the Blazers have seen the OVER go 33-19 the past 52 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss. Expect those stats to improve tonight. |
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04-06-22 | Thunder v. Jazz OVER 222.5 | Top | 101-137 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKC/Utah OVER the total. The Thunder had to fight to win a low-scoring game last night. Off that comeback victory, I'm expecting a much different type of game this evening. The OVER is 24-14-3 the past 2+ seasons, when OKC played the second of b2b games, 7-4-2 this season. In fact, a closer look shows that the OVER is a perfect 7-0 the past seven times that the Thunder starting five totaled a combined 160 or more minutes the previous day. (Four of last night's five starters went over 42 mins.) Off b2b hard fought games, last night's going to OT, the Jazz should be happy to play a game with "less defensive intensity." The last time that the Jazz played a home game, after having played the previous night, they combined with the Kings for 259 points. Look for another high-scoring affair, the OVER improving to 15-10 the past 25 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -12.5 to -18 range. |
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04-06-22 | Celtics v. Bulls +7.5 | Top | 117-94 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. I really like how this one sets up for the Bulls. The fact that Chicago played last night is providing us with some extra line value. Keep in mind that Chicago had the previous two days off. So, the Bulls came in "rested." The last time that they played the second of b2b games, they won by double-digits. That was on the road. This will be just the fourth time, since __ that the Bulls have played a home game, after having played the previous day. The previous three instances resulted in one outright win and very close games against a pair of top tier teams, Phoenix and Milwaukee. The Bulls lost those games, but only by three and six points. So, they've been "just fine" when playing the second of b2b games, including against in games here against tough competition. (Overall, they're 23-19 SU/ATS the past 2+ seasons, in b2b games.) They've also played the Celtics tough in both games this season. In fact, they blew out the Celtics in the first meeting and lost by only two in the second. Those games were both at Boston, too. The last time that the teams played here, Chicago won by 22 points, as a 4-point underdog. It should also be mentioned that the Celtics face the defending champs, at Milwaukee on TNT, tomorrow. So, it could be easy to have that game already on the back of their minds. With the Celtics just 3-5 SU/ATS their last eight, after scoring 130 or more, grab the generous points with Chicago. |
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04-05-22 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. While the Grizzlies would surely like to do some damage to their opponent's playoff chances, this game should mean considerably more to the Jazz. Seriously short-handed, the Grizzlies have already locked up the second spot. The Jazz, on the other hand, are fighting for playoff positioning. They're in sixth, at the moment and enter off a tough loss. However, they have a chance to move up to fifth OR they could fall to the seventh. The latter scenario would involve a play-in game. In other words, they really need this game. Added motivation stems from the fact that the Grizzlies have already beaten them twice this season. Mitchell had this to say: "We have a group of guys -- including myself -- where it's gonna feel good when we figure it out. So, we can sit here and feel sorry for ourselves or we can use it as fuel. And I think we have a group of guys who want to do that. Yeah, we messed up. We've messed up fourth quarters 14 times, 15 times. How do we respond? How do we adjust? That's really where I'm at, that's where we're at. We'll figure it out." The Jazz are 4-2-1 ATS (7-0 SU!) when playing with two day's rest and they're 18-9-1 ATS (23-5 SU) their last 28 in that situation. Well rested and highly motivated, expect Mitchell and co. to "figure it out" in blowout fashion. |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS. The Tar Heels ended up having Duke's number. The Jayhawks will be a different story. Indeed, Kansas does it all. Deep, talented, experienced and well-coached, the Jayhawks are also peaking at the right time. They followed up an absolutely dominant second half (47-15!) against another ACC team (Miami) by dismantling a good Villanova team. The Wildcats were never really in the game. With that victory, the Jayhawks are 7-2 ATS their last nine, when laying points. They're also 3-1 ATS their past four, as neutral court favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Both teams score. UNC averages 78.1. Kansas averages 78.3. Note that the Heels are still only 3-6 ATS against teams which score 77 or more. As mentioned, the Jayhawks also defend. Kansas allows 67.3 ppg, 67.8 ppg on the road. The Tar Heels, on the other hand, allow 71.1 ppg and a high 75.1 ppg on the road. In my bracket, I had Kansas winning it all; I believe that the Jayhawks are playing at a different level right now. I expect their superior defense to be the difference. Look for the Jayhawks, 11-6 ATS their last 17 tournament championship games, to become the national champs, covering the relatively small number along the way. |
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04-03-22 | Pelicans v. Clippers -1.5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. The Pelicans have won all three of this season's meetings. All three wins came by double-digits. This evening, I expect the revenge-minded Clippers to get some payback. The Clippers have quietly started to play well. In their last home game, they beat Utah. They followed that up with an OT loss, at Chicago. Last time out, they scored 153 points in a blowout win, at Milwaukee. While the champs may not have had their stars in the lineup, that's still the type of victory that the Clippers can build momentum and confidence from. (LA is 3-0 SU the past 2+ seasons, after scoring 145 or more.) The Pelicans are off three straight wins. However, those wins were against struggling teams and the Pelicans are just 5-8-1 ATS (5-9 SU) their last 14, when off three or more consec. victories. The Clippers are 8-4 ATS (9-3 SU) when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. Expect them to improve on those stats this evening. |
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04-03-22 | Heat v. Raptors UNDER 214.5 | Top | 114-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Toronto UNDER the total. The Heat have treated me pretty well the past few games. Three games ago, I successfully played on them when they blew out Sacramento. Next, I came back and won with them when they upset Boston. In both cases, they allowed 100 points or less. Last night, facing a high-scoring but sometimes defensively-challenged Chicago team, I successfully played on the Heat to go 'over' the total. One needs to consider how the opponent is currently playing though. In this case, the Raptors aren't playing anything like the Bulls were. Yet, the O/U line isn't all that much lower than last night's O/U line was. Here's an excerpt of what I said prior to last night's game: " ... This O/U line came down from its opener. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that the Bulls have played much higher scoring games at home than on the road. Games here at Chicago are averaging more than 225 points on the season. Off a fairly low-scoring road trip, the Bulls returned home and promptly combined with LA for 265 points. True, 29 of those points came in OT. However, they still had 236 in regulation. The Heat have been underdogs for two of their past three games. Both of the games where they were underdogs finished below the total. However, the game where they were favored (Sacramento on ) sailed over the number. Including that result, the OVER is a perfect 5-0 (or 4-1, depending on O/U line used for 3/25 game) the past five times that Miami was favored ... " This time, the Heat are back in the underdog role. This time, they're playing at a venue where games are averaging 116.6 points. That's nearly 10 points less than games at Chicago. The Raptors are playing very stingy defense these days, too. Last time out, they went on the road and allowed only 89 points. Their previous game saw them hold a high-scoring Minnesota team to just 102. They've now allowed 113 or less in seven straight; three of those teams finished with 91 or less. Despite facing some high-scoring and/or up-tempo teams, the Heat have allowed 111 or less in each of their last five. The last two times that they played the second of b2b games, they scored only 95 and 104 points. With both teams ranking in the top 7, in terms of points allowed per game, expect plenty of defensive intensity and a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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04-02-22 | Heat v. Bulls OVER 217.5 | Top | 127-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Chicago OVER the total. This O/U line came down from its opener. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that the Bulls have played much higher scoring games at home than on the road. Games here at Chicago are averaging more than 225 points on the season. Off a fairly low-scoring road trip, the Bulls returned home and promptly combined with LA for 265 points. True, 29 of those points came in OT. However, they still had 236 in regulation. The Heat have been underdogs for two of their past three games. Both of the games where they were underdogs finished below the total. However, the game where they were favored (Sacramento on ) sailed over the number. Including that result, the OVER is a perfect 5-0 (or 4-1, depending on O/U line used for 3/25 game) the past five times that Miami was favored. With former teammates DeRozan and Lowry both off big games, I'm expecting those results to improve this evening. |
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04-02-22 | Villanova v. Kansas OVER 132 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 108 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on Villanova/Kansas OVER the total. I had these two facing each other here in my bracket and I backed both of them in their last game. So, this matchup doesn't surprise me. The Wildcats have been particularly good to me. In addition to winning with them against Houston, I successfully backed them in their opening win over Delaware. Additionally, I cashed with the 'under' in the Villanova win over Michigan. So, I'm well aware and have commented about how stingy the Wildcats can be. The Jayhawks are better than any of the other teams the Wildcats have faced though. I feel that the Wildcats will be hard pressed to keep them below 70. The Jayhawks, who have faced their share of tough defenses, average 78.3 ppg and they hit 47.8% of their field goals. The latter mark ranks in the top 20 in the country. They've scored at least 70 in eight of their last nine games, scoring 66 in the other. Note that no team all year, a span of 38 games, has kept them below 62 points. The Wildcats will get theirs, too. Their last game was against Houston; that one was going to be a defensive battle from the start. They'd scored at least 63 points in 18 of their previous 19 games though. This veteran team, which rarely misses at the line, won't go away. The low-scoring games will have many quick to back the 'under' and that sentiment has rewarded us with an extra low line. Line value. The OVER is 8-4-1 the past 13 times that Kansas played a game with an O/U line in the 130s and 5-1-1 the past seven times that Kansas was off a game where it allowed 60 or fewer points. With both teams fighting (scoring) right up until the final buzzer, expect those stats to improve on Saturday. |
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04-01-22 | Mavs v. Wizards +9 | Top | 103-135 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Wizards may not have Beal (and Kuzma) but they're still playing hard. Off a double-digit win on Wednesday, I believe that they're offering excellent value as substantital home underdogs on Friday. While the Mavs have won three in a row overall, they've still dropped three of their last four on the road. They're 6-8 ATS when off three or more consec. wins and they're 2-5 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 220 or more. With a game against the defending champs on deck, it should be easy to look past the lowly Wizards. The Wizards, 12-4 ATS their last 16 in the month of April, aren't going to roll over though. They're 5-3 ATS when off a double-digit win (22-12-1 ATS L35 in that situation) and their home record is nearly as good as Dallas' road record. With their next three on the road, the Wizards are going to want to take care of business this evening on homecourt. Expect them to give their guests all that they can handle. |
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03-31-22 | Bucks v. Nets -1.5 | Top | 120-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on BROOKLYN. The Bucks won big in this season's first two meetings. However, the Nets took the most recent. Playing at home, I expect them to salvage the reg. season series split. While the Bucks are 26-12 at home, they're a mediocre 21-16 on the road. A closer look shows that they're only 2-7 ATS their last nine as road underdogs. Even off their win over the 76'ers, the Bucks are still only 12-21 ATS against winning teams. True, the Nets' defense was a bit shaky last game, a 130-124 win over the Pistons. That didn't really surprise me (I had the over) that they got into a fast paced game with the Pistons. When it mattered, they locked it down. Having had more time with Irving in the lineup, the Nets, 8-3 their last 11, are starting to round into form. Speaking of Irving, he had 38 in the most recent meeting with Milwaukee. They won that game without Durant even playing. Now, they'll have both those stars in the lineup; Durant is coming off a 41-point game, one of six Brooklyn players to score in double-digits. Note that the Nets are 3-1 ATS after scoring 130 or more in their previous game. Look for them to improve to 29-11 (SU) their last 40, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 230 or more, picking up the cover along the way. |
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03-31-22 | Xavier v. Texas A&M OVER 137.5 | Top | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on Xavier/Texas A&M OVER the total. Admittedly, the Aggies have been playing some pretty stingy defense to get here. They enter this game on an 'under' streak. That's worked into the line though as we're working with quite a low O/U number. Facing an Xavier team which is currently putting up a lot of points, I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Musketeers have scored at least 72 points in six straight games. During that 6-game span, they averaged a whopping 80.33 points. The Aggies have scored 72 or more in three of their past four and at least 67 points in 12 of their past 13. The OVER is 8-2 the past 10 times that Xavier played on a neutral court and that includes a 4-1 OVER mark when playing a neutral site game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Expect those stats to improve Thursday evening. |
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03-30-22 | Mavs v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 120-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I'm happy to grab the points with the Cavaliers, as I expect them to win outright. Though they failed to cover the big number, the Cavs came through in the fourth quarter for an important win on Monday. They already blew out the Mavs at Dallas and they're 24-14 here at home. Yes, the Cavs are banged up at center, as Allen and Mobley are out. Howver, they've still got options and I feel they'll be fine this evening. While the Cavs rested, the Mavs (20-17 on the road) are off a game last night. They're just 5-6 ATS when playing the second of b2b games. The last time that they played the second of b2b games, the Mavs got hammered 129-108, by Charlotte. Including that 21-point loss, in addition to playing the second of b2b games, the Mavs will be playing their 8th game in the past 13 days. Last night's game may not have been particularly taxing but eight games in less than two weeks is. The Mavs are 0-4 ATS their last four on the road, too. They lost their last three road games outright and their previous two resulted in wins of two and three points. Don't be surprised when the Cavs dig deep and score the upset. |
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03-29-22 | Washington State v. Texas A&M OVER 132 | Top | 56-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington State/Texas A&M OVER the total. Recent low-scoring results have rewarded us with quite a low O/U number for tonight's game between the Cougars and the Aggies. While I respect these defenses, I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Cougars have scored 75 and 77 their past two games. They average 71.9. The Aggies have scored 74, 75 and 67 points their past three games. They average 72.7. One important thing to note about these teams is that they can both score on the road, too. Some teams see their offensive numbers take a big dip when playing away from home. These teams do not. In fact, the Cougars actually average more points (72.1) on the road than than they do at home. Likewise, the Aggies average more than 70 ppg on the road. Not surprisingly, both teams also allow more points on the road, than they do at home. Texas A&M has seen 13 of 18 away games finish above the number. Look for this one to also find its way above the low number, the OVER improving to 7-2 the past nine times that the Aggies were off game where they allowed 60 or less. |
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03-29-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -1.5 | Top | 118-116 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the road team won both this season's earlier meetings, I'm expecting homecourt to prove significant this evening. In this season's first meeting here, the 76'ers didn't have Embiid or Harris in the lineup. No Harden either, of course. The stars will be out for the home team tonight though. I expect them to treat this game very seriously, a little more so than their guests. Off a loss last time out, Harris said this: "We have to be a lot sharper with that as we close out these last few games and get ready for playoffs for sure. We're gonna need it to win in the playoffs." On the other hand, Giannis said this for the Bucks: "Obviously, you've got to start taking care of your body because ... there's a bunch of injuries like lingering, you know?" Like somebody's knee, ankle, back, hips. You've got to start taking care of your body. You don't want to go into the playoffs having all these things lingering. You want to be 100 percent healthy because once you go into the playoffs ... stuff is going to happen there." While the Bucks have had a couple of days off, they're only 3-6 ATS when playing with two day's rest in between games. It should also be noted that the champs are just 11-21 ATS against winning teams. The 76'ers are 6-4 ATS (8-2 SU) the past 10 times that they were off a double-digit loss. Expect them to dig deep and improve on those stats this evening. |
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03-28-22 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 236 | Top | 123-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on SA/Hou OVER the total. Both these teams have seen their recent games finish below the total. Those results have kept this O/U line a little lower than it easily could have been. I believe it'll prove to be too low. These divisional 'rivals' tend to play really high-scoring games against each other. This season's three previous games had combined scores of 252, 238 and 237. While the Spurs allow more than 113 ppg, the Rockets allow more than 117. In fact, their 117.6 ppg allowed is the most in the entire NBA. That number climbs to a whopping 120.6 when Houston faces a divisional opponent, too. The Spurs have seen the OVER go 15-6-1 their last 22, when facing a team which allows 116 or more ppg. That includes a 4-0-1 OVER mark their last five, against such defensively-challenged teams. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks as those numbers improve this evening. |
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03-28-22 | Coastal Carolina v. South Alabama -2.5 | Top | 69-68 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH ALABAMA. While the Chanticleers deserve credit to be still playing, their season comes to an end this evening. The Jaguars already went to Coastal Carolina and beat this team by three points. Now, they get to face them at home. I expect homecourt to prove significant in this all Sun Belt affair. The Jags will be without Jay Jay Chandler and possibly also without Charles Manning Jr. That's been factored into the line though as its lower than it easily could have been. Certainly, they hope Manning Jr. can go. Even without him, however, this is a deep team. They were 15-2 on this floor and visiting teams averaged less than 60 points here. While USA hits 47.9% of its field goals at home, Coastal Carolina, 5-7 away from home, only connects on 42.9% of theirs, on the road. Lay the small number and expect Coastal Carolina to fall to 7-13 ATS the past 20 times that it was a road underdog of three or fewer points. |
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03-28-22 | Kings v. Heat -12.5 | Top | 100-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. The Kings are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Kings will be playing without Sabonis and Fox and they'll be facing an angry Miami team. Not only have the Heat lost four straight but the Kings also (narrowly) beat them at Sacramento. With three big road games (Boston, Chicago, Toronto) following this one, the Heat know the importance of taking care of business tonight. They also know that they will benefit from a "confidence building blowout." The Kings just faced Orlando and they've got b2b games against Houston on deck. Those are winnable games for them. This one isn't. While the Kings allow more than 117 ppg on the road, the Heat only allow 105 ppg at home. Expect the Heat to bounce back big, improving to 10-4 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. |
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03-27-22 | Hornets v. Nets UNDER 239.5 | Top | 119-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on Charlotte/Brooklyn UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U line. The highest on the Sunday board. With all due respect to the Brooklyn offense, I believe it'll prove to be too high. These teams met a few weeks ago, at Charlotte. Kyrie and co. went off and that game proved to be high scoring. The Hornets have been playing much better defense of late though and the Nets are playing the second of b2b games. This will be the fifth time, since the beginning of February, where the Nets will be playing the second of b2b games. The previous four instances had combined scores of: 224, 217, 220 and 213. Last time out, the Hornets held Utah to 101 points. They've limited four of their past five opponents to 108 or less. Including the Utah result, the UNDER is 25-10 when they've faced a team with a winning record. As for the Nets and the high total, consider that the UNDER is 16-6 here this season, when the O/U line was 220 or more and 4-1 when the O/U line was 230 or more. While Irving obviously wasn't around for those other ones, we can still expect those numbers to improve this evening. |
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03-27-22 | St. Peter's v. North Carolina OVER 136.5 | Top | 49-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on Saint Peter's/UNC OVER the total. There have been a lot of low-scoring games in the tournament of late; both these teams are coming off an 'under' in their last game. Those results have helped to provide us with a relatively low O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Tar Heels are going to put up a pretty big number. They scored 73 against a stingy UCLA defense last game. They scored 93 and 95 in the first two rounds. They average more than 78. Even if the Tar Heels only reached that average here, the Peacocks would only need to chip in about 60 of their own. I believe that this year's Cinderella team should be able to exceed that. The Peacocks have scored at least 60 in six straight games and they've also done so in 12 of their last 13. While the Peacocks were a profitable 'under' team, when listed as favorites, the OVER was 9-5 when they were underdogs, a 4-1 OVER mark the past five times that they were listed as underdogs on a neutral court. Look for those stats to improve here. |
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03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas -5.5 | Top | 50-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on KU. The Hurricanes just beat up on a team from the Big 12 and now they'll face another. The problem is that Kansas is better than Iowa State. A lot better. While Iowa State was a middle of the road team in that conference, Kansas is the best. The very well-coached Jayhawks can beat teams on both ends of the ball. They're stingy but unlike the Cyclones, they can also score. Miami scores 74.6 ppg. Kansas scores 78.4 ppg. Miami allows 70.2 ppg. Kansas allows 67.7. A closer look reveals that opposing teams connect on 45.7% of their field goals against Miami but only 41.2% of their field goals against Kansas. That's a significant difference. Speaking of differences, super senior Remy Martin off the bench ha been a difference maker for Kansas. The fact that the Jayhawks failed to cover the past two games has kept this line lower than it easily could have been. Expect Kansas to put it all together this afternoon, punching their ticket to the Final Four with a convincing double-digit victory. |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas v. Duke UNDER 148 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 30 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arkansas/Duke UNDER the total. Here's an excerpt of what I said about the Arkansas defense prior to the Gonzaga game: "The Razorbacks won't completely shutdown the Bulldogs but they will be able to slow them down ... Consider that no team all year (35 games) has reached the 90 mark against Arkansas. The Razorbacks have had some absolutely dominant defensive efforts along the way, too. Remember when they held Missouri to only 29 points? How about last game? They limited New Mexico State to just 48 points, a 53-48 victory. The same NMSU team had just scored 70 against UConn the previous game. Gonzaga coach Mark Few said this of the rest of the tournament and of Arkansas: 'From here on out they're all tough. They're all physical, they're all great athletes or great defenses ... They're very athletic, evenly sized and can really guard. Their defense is kind of what jumps out at you, right off the page.' .... " Sure enough, as you surely saw, the Razorbacks slowed things down and limited the high-powered Gonzaga offense to just 68 points. While Duke also has a potent offense, the Blue Devils don't score quite as many points as Gonzaga. The Blue Devils score 80.2 ppg while Gonzaga averaged 87.2. Once again, I believe that Arkansas will do its best to try and slow things down. Remember, the Blue Devils are capable of being stingy themselves; they limited their first opponent to 61 points. The UNDER is now 5-1 the past six times that the Razorbacks were neutral court underdogs. Look for those stats to improve on Saturday evening. |
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03-26-22 | Kings v. Magic OVER 223.5 | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Sac/Orl OVER the total. The last time that these teams met, they combined for 272 points. The last five meetings have all produced a minimum of 226 combined points. All five of them finished above the total. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair. The Magic are obviously playing out the string; there's little reason to play defense. The Kings are still mathematically alive but they're pretty much in the same boat. Note that the OVER is 5-0 the past five times that they played a game against a team with a losing record and 11-4 the past 15 times that they were off an upset win. With the OVER also a lucrative 29-12-2 the past 2+ years, when Orlando faces a sub-500 team in the second half of the season, look for another shootout. |
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03-26-22 | Portland v. Southern Utah -3.5 | Top | 66-77 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTHERN UTAH. This is the quarter finals of The Basketball Classic. The winner will play in the semis, on Monday, at Fresno State. I've been riding the Thunderbirds in this tournament and I'm coming back with them again here. As I've mentioned this is a very talented Southern Utah team. Had they not stumbled against Portland State in the Big Sky tournament, the Thunderbirds could easily have won a game or two at the Big Dance. Now, they'll get a chance to take their frustration out on a team from the same state as the one which prevented them from having that opportunity. While the Thunderbirds could have easily packed it in, after not realizing their NCAA dreams, they didn't. Rather, they bought into the opportunity to keep playing and are looking to win this tournament. They'll be in front of their home fans and I expect their best effort. The Pilots are 8-10 on the road, averaging less than 70 ppg. The T-Birds are 12-3 at home, averaging 82.5 ppg here. Southern Utah is 3-1 ATS its past four as a neutral court favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. I don't believe the Pilots will be able to keep up. |
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03-25-22 | North Carolina v. UCLA -2 | Top | 73-66 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCLA. Obviously, these are two top teams. They were actually supposed to face each other last December, in Vegas. However, that game was canceled due to the Bruins having to deal with Covid. Now, they face each other with a trip to the Elite 8 on the line. No question, UNC has been playing really well. This is a deep, talented and experienced UCLA team though. The favorite is 5-0 ATS the past five meetings and the Bruins are favored for good reason. Note that the Heels are 4-12-1 ATS their last 17, when listed as neutral court underdogs of three or less. I believe that the Bruins' toughness and defensive advantage will ultimately prove the difference. UCLA allows 64.9 ppg on the road, UNC allows 77.1. Expect the Bruins to advance, covering the small number along the way. |
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03-25-22 | Knicks v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 111-103 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. The Knicks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Heat are off b2b losses and they're going to be angry. They're 9-3 ATS their last 12, when off a double-digit loss, a perfect 5-0 ATS the past five times that they were off a double-digit home loss. They're also 28-19-1 ATS (33-15 SU) their past 48, when off an upset loss. While the Knicks are 16-21 on the road, the Heat are a dominant 26-10 at home. The Heat already handled the Knicks in both this season's meetings. More of the same this evening. |
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03-25-22 | Providence v. Kansas -7 | Top | 61-66 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS. The Friars have played well and are on a nice run. It comes to an end here though. Battle-tested against a tough Big 12 scheduled, this very talented Kansas team is peaking at the right time. Despite playing a more difficult schedule, Kansas has very similar defensive numbers as Providence. The Friars allow 66.2 ppg. The Jayhawks allow 67.6. Opposing teams hit 41.4% of their field goals against Kansas and 41% against Providence. Note that over the past five games, Kansas is allowing just 63.6 ppg while holding opposing teams to a 38% field goal percentage. Prov. has allowed 66 ppg and 41.4% fgs during it's past five games. Its on the other side of the ball where the Jayhawks have an even bigger advantage. Kansas has averaged 78.7 ppg and 76.7 ppg on the road. The Friars, on the other hand, averaage only 66.5 ppg on the road. The Friars hit only 40% of their fields on the road, the Jayhawks connect on 47.3% of theirs. I'm expecting a double-digit win. |
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03-24-22 | Cavs v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on TORONTO. I successfully played against the Raptors in their last game. However, that was on the road, at Chicago. The Raptors are back home now though and they've had the past couple of days off. Note that they're 5-1 ATS the past six times that they played with two day's rest in between games. While the Raptors have had trouble at Cleveland, including losses in December and earlier this month, they're 4-1 ATS the past five times that they hosted the Cavs. The Raptors have been at their best against winning teams. They're 25-13-1 ATS against teams with a winning record, 12-5 ATS (13-4 SU) their last 17. With the Raptors also 8-4 ATS when off a double-digit loss, look for them to bounce back and get some payback in this one. |
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03-24-22 | Arkansas v. Gonzaga UNDER 155 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arkansas/Gonzaga UNDER the total. I won with the 'over' in Gonzaga's first game. So, I'm well aware that this team can put up big points. That said, that game was against an overmatched Georgia State team. While the Panthers fought hard, it was still a #1 vs. 16 seed matchup. I was confident that the Bulldogs would put up a very big number and I thought the Panthers would chip in enough to do the rest. In the end, that's what happened; a 93-72 final. The Razorbacks won't completely shutdown the Bulldogs but they will be able to slow them down more than Georgia State could. Yet O/U line is considerably higher for this game than it was for that one. Consider that the 92 that they scored against Georgia State was the only time in the past 10 games that Gonzaga has reached the 90 mark. Then, consider that no team all year (35 games) has reached the 90 mark against Arkansas. The Razorbacks have had some absolutely dominant defensive efforts along the way, too. Remember when they held Missouri to only 29 points? How about last game? They limited New Mexico State to just 48 points, a 53-48 victory. The same NMSU team had just scored 70 against UConn the previous game. Gonzaga coach Mark Few said this of the rest of the tournament and of Arkansas: "From here on out they're all tough. They're all physical, they're all great athletes or great defenses ... They're very athletic, evenly sized and can really guard. Their defense is kind of what jumps out at you, right off the page." Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than expected, the final combined score staying below the generously high number. |
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03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU UNDER 142.5 | Top | 77-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on WSU/BYU UNDER the total. BYU has put up a lot of points their last couple of games. I expect them to find the going considerably more difficult on offense this evening though. In getting here, WSU has been very stingy. It its last two games, facing Santa Clara and SMU, WSU has allowed 50 and 63 points. Off the most recent win, Washington State coach Kyle Smith commented: "Our big boys were big. Playing big ball worked. ... They're young, but they're starting to emerge at the right time." More often that not, playing "big ball" is going to slow things down. Note that the UNDER was 9-5 in BYU's lined home games. Despite BYU home games AND WSU road games both averaging in the high 130s, we're working with an O/U line in the 140s. The UNDER is 17-8 the past 25 times that WSU played a game with an O/U line in the 140s. I expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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03-22-22 | Vanderbilt v. Xavier -3.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on XAVIER. Vanderbilt is in the wrong place, at the wrong time. I won with the Musketeers in their last game. They easily disposed of Florida, a 72-56 victory. I believe that this talented team has hit its stride. I expect Xavier's superior defense to prove the difference. The Commodores barely got by Dayton last game. They've been mediocre on the road all season. They score 69.6 ppg on the road and allow 69.4. On the other hand, Xavier outscores teams by an average score of 75.3 to 64.8 here at home. Off their dominant defensive effort, note that the Musketeers are 5-1 ATS their last six after allowing 60 or fewer points in their previous game. Playing their final home game of the season, expect the Musketeers to punch their ticket to MSG, improving on those stats along the way. |
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03-22-22 | Southern Utah +4.5 v. UTEP | Top | 82-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTHERN UTAH. The Miners are off a blowout win while the Thunderbirds won a close one. Those results have worked in our favor; this line could easily be lower. Keep in mind that UTEP was playing the Western Illinois Leathernecks, a mediocre team (at best) from the Summit Conference. (They were 7-11 in Summit League play, 16-14 overall). The Thunderbirds represent a major step up in class. This is a strong team, one which is angry that it didn't advance to the NCAA Tournament. The Thunderbirds have 21 wins and went 14-6 in the Big Sky and they'd consider that a disappointment. I like the fact that they didn't hang their heads and found a way to beat a tough Kent State team to get here. Prior to their blowout win over the Leathernecks, the Miners were off an OT loss. Prior to that, they'd seen three of their previous four games decided by three or fewer points and those four games were preceded by a blowout loss. The T-Birds are 4-2 ATS the past six times that they were road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. Grab the points and don't be surprised when score the outright win. |