Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-16-22 | Yair Rodriguez v. Brian Ortega -155 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -155 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
I'm backing ORTEGA against Rodriguez. (8*) Both fighters are hungry for a win. The winner will likely fight for the title. In addition to having a height and reach advantage, Rodriguez has more power. Ortega has the superior submission game though. Remember, he's been training in Gracie jiu-jitsu from a young age. Ultimately, I believe that will prove the difference. An aggressive fighter, Rodriguez is always coming forward. That makes him an exciting fighter to watch but it's also going to play into Ortega's hands. After losing to Holloway in 2018, Ortega took time off and reinvented himself. I believe we're going to see the best version of him. Remember, he gave the champ (Volkanovski) all he could handle - you may have seen Volkanovski just dismantle Holloway. I like Rodriguez but he's in the wrong place, at the wrong time. |
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07-09-22 | Cortney Casey v. Antonina Shevchenko -164 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
I'm backing SHEVCHENKO in tonight's fight against Cortney Casey. Antonina will never be confused for her sister, Valentina. That said, this is a favorable matchup for her. Casey, who has struggled in the UFC, is likely to try and trade strikes with Shevchenko. That should play into Antonina's hands, as her biggest problems have come on the ground. Shevkenko has an advantage in terms of significant strikes; she connects on 56% of hers, while Casey lands 39% of hers. Not only does she dish out more big hits, she absorbs fewer of them. She receives just over three significant strikes per minute while Casey takes just over four per minute. Those edges will add up to an important victory for Antonina. |
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07-02-22 | Max Holloway v. Alexander Volkanovski -187 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
I'm backing VOLKANOVSKI against Holloway. Here's what I said prior to the last fight: "While the line may appear steep, given what we saw from the first fight, I believe it could easily be even higher. Volkanovski gives up five inches in height but actually has a 2-inch reach advantage. AV, who had a striking advantage in the first fight, really can do it all. Volanovski's leg kicks were a problem for Holloway in the first first and figure to be an issue once again. Keep in mind that Volkanovski is also very comfortable on the ground. Yes, Holloway will make adjustments but so will Volkanovski. I say AV brings too much to the table and that this is a favorable matchup which will continue to go his way." Sure, it ended up being close but Volkanovski still won. Since then, however, Volkanovski has looked dominant while Holloway has taken a lot of punishment. I say Holloway missed his chance. A third time will not be the charm. |
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06-26-22 | Mateusz Gamrot v. Arman Tsarukyan OVER 4.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
I'm taking the OVER in the Tsarukyan/Gamrot fight. These two have a lot of similarities. I see the fight going the distance. This figures to be a tough fight for both. Each have shown that they can finish lesser opponents. However, when stepping up in class, their fights are more likely to be decided by the judges. While Tsrukyan has predicted a KO, even he doesn't see it coming until the fourth round. For his part, Gamrot noted: "We have changed the game plan, we have to be more patient during the fight. It's a different game." I see the clock getting chewed up with a lot of time on the ground and this one ultimately going longer than many will be expecting. |
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06-18-22 | Julian Marquez v. Gregory Rodrigues -172 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
I'm backing Gregory Rodrigues on Saturday night. While I respect Marquez, I think Rodriques is a little stronger. I like that Rodrigues has been a lot more active than Marquez. Rodrigues can win in a number of ways. He's got a black belt in jiu-jitsu but he's also got power when on his feet. He should be the more technical striker and I believe he'll have the edge on the ground. He's got five KO victories, four by submission and two wins by decision. Expect him to take care of business. |
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06-11-22 | Ramazan Emeev v. Jack Della Maddalena -155 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
I'm backing Jack Della Maddalena on June 11. Jack Della Maddalena is on a mission. He's won 11 straight and he's determined to make it 12. I don't feel that Ramazan Emeev will be able to stop him. While JDM has a pair of losses, they were his first two fights. Since then, he's just continued to get better. Emeev isn't a big finisher. His last seven fights have all gone to the scorecards. He lost a split decision last time out. Maddalena, on the other hand, scored a first round KO in his last fight. It's no secret that Emeev is going to try and take the fight to the ground. He'll likely be successful at times. However, he hasn't shown that he's that capable of finishing or scoring big points, even when he is on top. JDM has shown that he's got a decent (75%) take-down-defense. Also, his contender series win over Angel Loosa showed he can handle grappling, when needed. (Loosa is capable on both his feet and on the ground.) After that fight, Bisping had this to say of JDM: "If someone is going to come in the UFC and have a great career, you need to see how they're going to handle adversity like that, and he passed the test with flying colors." When the fighters are on their feet, JDM is going to score big. He's a high volume striker. JDM lands 8.4 significant strikers per minute compared to Emeev's 2.5. While I like JDM's chance of a KO, I also feel that he'll be ahead on points, should this one go the distance. |
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05-07-22 | Randy Brown v. Kristina Williams +100 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
I'm backing KHAOS WILLIAMS on Saturday night. Williams is on his way up and Randy Brown is in his way. Williams is fast and powerful. While he's not as tall as Brown, he has essentially the same reach. While Williams could potentially struggle against an elite grappler, Brown doesn't fall into that category. He's likely going to trade strikes, as he always does, which will ultimately spell trouble for him. In what should be an exciting fight, I see Williams scoring the KO. |
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04-16-22 | Andre Fialho v. Miguel Baeza -155 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
I'm backing Miguel Baeza. Baeza is coming in on a mission and I believe that André Fialho, still inexperienced in the UFC, will prove to be the perfect opponent for him. Baeza had this to sayd: "When it comes to everything last year and now this year, I'm just really looking forward to proving that I'm one of the best welterweights in the world. I really think that. I need to come out this Saturday and put a stamp on it and put myself in the right direction again, to fight some of the best guys in the division. So I’m excited to do that ... It's super important, especially after what happened last year; I feel like I dropped two fights I should’ve won and I felt like I was doing well until certain things happened, so I think it’s important that I come back and get back in the green and shake up the welterweight division." Of course, those are only words. However, Baeza really should have the superior skills here. Baeza was originally slated to fight Dhiego Lima. I think he would have beaten him, too. However, Fialho may be an even better matchup for him. Though Fialho has experience, its not in the UFC. He's only had one fight here. He'll be coming forward and be willing to exchange and that should fit right into Baeza's hands; I see Baeza scoring the KO/TKO. In the event Fialho does manage to hang around, I expect Baeza to be comfortably ahead on the judges score cards. |
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03-19-22 | Makwan Amirkhani v. Mike Grundy -179 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -179 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
I'm backing MIKE GRUNDY on Saturday. To say that Grundy is highly motivated would be an understatement. Not just because he's off b2b losess. Not just because he's in his own country. His father, recently diagnosed with a terminal illness, will be sitting "cage-side." Grundy has said that he's devoting this fight to his dad. Grundy commented: "This fight is to put on a performance for my dad. Sadly, my dad has been diagnosed with a terminal illness, and he's gonna be there cageside watching me on the night, and that is what it means to me. There is absolutely no chance that this guy is gonna put me away on Saturday night. You can put me in with the heavyweights on the main event, and they won't put me away either because I'm there to put on a performance in front of my dad, and that is what it means to me, and that's the main thing. I'm gonna dedicate this fight and this win to my dad." While Grundy is off b2b losses, those were better fighters than the one he'll face here. Amirkhani has dropped three in a row himself. Both fighters can grapple but Grundy has the striking edge. I like his chances of scoring the KO. However, if it does go to a decision, he should be comfortably ahead. In the unlikely event of it being really close, the home crowd and background story will make it hard for the judges to go against Grundy. Expect him to earn the victory for his dad. |
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03-12-22 | Troy Jones v. Javid Basharat -145 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
I'm backing JAVID BASHARAT on Saturday night. Jones is off a loss and is now 13-7. On the other hand, The "Snow Leopard" is undefeated. On a mission to become the first Afghan champion, he's ready to show the world that he means business. Not only does Basharat have an undefeated record but he's finished all 11 of his fights. He won by submission last time out but is also more than capable of scoring the KO. He commented: "My favorite way of finishing somebody? That's a good question. I don't know, I just like to finish. A rear-naked choke feels good because it's like a very dominant win, you know, but at the same time a knockout feels great too." Basharat went on to say: "You can expect another finish as usual from me. There's not much else to say. Whatever he gives me I'm going to take and I'm going to be looking for a finish the whole time." I expect the Snow Leopard to back up his words and to pick the lesser skilled Jones apart. He'll likely be more expensive the next time he fights. Look for an impressive UFC debut. |
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03-05-22 | Sergey Spivak -180 v. Greg Hardy | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
I'm backing SPIVAK on Saturday night. Hardy is in over his head. Again. He's lost b2b fights and this is not a good matchup for him. These two were supposed to fight at UFC 270. At the time, Hardy was orginally scheduled to face Olenyk. However, Olenyk backed out and it was then supposed to be Spivak vs. Hardy. That probably wouldn't have gone well for Hardy but at least Spivak would have been fighting with less prep time. Hardy remains an elite athlete and he's got bigtime power. He's not a good wrestler though and he's far from elite when exchanging strikes. Consider one of their common opponents in Tuivasa. Hardy hurt Tuivasa a bit early on but then got KO'd. Spivak, on the other hand, took Tuivasa down six times before choking him out with an arm triangle. I see Spivak getting Hardy off his feet and winning by either ground and pound or submission. |
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02-19-22 | Nikolas Motta -165 v. Jim Miller | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
I'm backing MOTTA on Nikolas Saturday night. Miller has had a fine career. He's getting long in the tooth though and he's standing in the way of Motta's dreams of bigger fights. Certainly, Miller has the edge in experience. He's also the better grappler. Neither of these things should be taken lightly. That said, Motta has plenty of experience outside of the UFC. Importantly, he's also taken on a quality grappler Joe Solecki. Not only did he avoid getting submitted but he knocked Solecki out. Here's what Solecki said afterwards about Motta: "...I had two good fights then I ran into Nikolas Motta and fought the two best rounds of my career and got slept, and embarrassingly so ..." Recall that Solecki defeated Miller, less than a year ago, handing him his 16th loss. This fight was pushed back; it was originally supposed to happen five months ago. That should only benefit Motta. Motta, who started training for this fight in Brazil, noted: "Last year I trained two or three months to fight Jim Miller and studied his game. And Nova Uniao was the best place to train to fight someone like Jim Miller, a jiu-jitsu guy. … Doing my camp with Rafael dos Anjos was great for my evolution. It couldn't be better. It felt great to be in Brazil and train in the place where I grew up, Nova Uniao ..." I say that Motta has learned enough to limit Miller's takedowns and ultimately I look for him to knock the veteran out. |
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02-12-22 | Tai Tuivasa v. Derrick Lewis UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tuivasa/Lewis to finish UNDER the total. These guys will both be "swinging for the fences" in this one. As Tuivasa noted: "It's either going to be my head or his head. We entertain the fans, so we're coming here to take heads off. That's it." For his part, Lewis noted: "I'm coming to knock his ass out." Given that he holds the UFC record for KO's, Lewis knows a thing or two about finishing fights. Twenty-one of his 26 wins have been by way of KO while 13 of Tuivasa's 14 wins have come that way. Don't blink. This one lives up the hype with a first round KO. |
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01-23-22 | Cyril Gane -147 v. Francis Ngannou | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -147 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
I'm backing CIRYL GANE in tonight's Main Event. This should be a good one. Two top heavyweights fighting for the belt. They've even got a personal history. Ngannou is the champ and has the more recognizable name. Yet, its Gane who is the favorite. That says a lot about how good he is. Ngannou has awesome power. He's got a lot going on though, contract disputes, talks of fighting Tyson Fury etc. Whether or not all that proves to be a distraction, Ngannou will be facing a fighter that can do it all. Gane is faster and has a better defense than the opponents that Ngannou has been beating up on. Gane has also never tasted defeat, something Ngannou can't claim. I say that Gane's speed and technique prove to be too much and that he remains undefeated and becomes heavyweight champion. |
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12-05-21 | Jose Aldo v. Rob Font -145 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
I'm backing ROB FONT on Saturday night. Analysis to follow |
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11-13-21 | Kristina Williams v. Miguel Baeza -145 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
I'm backing BAEZA on Saturday. This should be a good fight. While neither has ever been finished, both fighters have the ability to deliver a knockout. However, Baeza has the advantage of also being the superior grappler. So, he's got more ways to win. That said, I see Baeza winning this one by KO. His leg kicks will be effective. Williams is exciting, athletic and powerful but he tends to take a lot of shot. After Baeza slows him down by working the leg and body, he delivers the finish. |
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11-06-21 | Frankie Edgar v. Marlon Vera -145 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
I'm backing MARLON VERA on Saturday night. Edgar, now 40 years old, has been around forever and his skills have declined. Vera, still a few weeks short of his 29th birthday, is on a mission. Edgar is in his way. Vera had this to say: "I don't think the UFC is looking for almost a win, – they're looking for shocking performances, and that's what I know I can do. I've fought the who's who of the division. I've had setbacks. I've lost fights before. But I'm barely losing them. I really don't even lose them. Adjustments have been made to get past those fights. … It's just a matter of time until I get that belt." I say age catches up with Edgar and that the well-rounded Vera backs up his words with an impressive KO. |
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10-09-21 | Deontay Wilder v. Tyson Fury OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
43I'm playing on the OVER in the Fury/Wilder fight. As you're likely aware, this is the third fight between these guys. The first went the distance. The second was a Fury TKO in the seventh round. You may recall that Wilder's corner threw in the towel in that one. Reportedly, immediately after the fight, with all his team around him, Wilder demanded to know who threw in the towel. Then, he fired him (Mark Breland) on the spot. That being the case, I don't see Wilder, or his team, quitting in this one. His new trainer (Malik Scott) had this to say: "I would never stop a fight with Deontay Wilder ever. I know what he's trying to do to people and I know the responsibility that he gave me and the talks that we've had over year. This wasn't nothing new about him not wanting a trainer that would throw a towel in." Obviously, both fighters have the ability to score an early KO. However, they've also both proven very tough to knockout. Both fighters are heavier than ever; they won't be going down easily. Don't be surprised when this one goes the distance. |
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10-09-21 | Marina Rodriguez v. Mackenzie Dern -185 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -185 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
I'm backing Mackenzie Dern on Saturday. Both these women have impressive records and both come in on a roll. Rodriguez is an excellent striker but Dern, who had three "performance of the night" victories in her past four wins, isn't about to trade punches with her. She had this to say: "I have a better chance of knocking her out than she has of submitting me,” Dern said of the matchup. “In striking, the fact one hand lands can end the fight. On the other hand, on the ground, it's a little bit harder to end up in a guillotine because I have time to defend myself and things like that. But my idea in this fight is not to trade with her. She has so many years of experience in muay thai and striking. I think the best way to beat a striker is by taking her to the ground. I really don't want to get elbowed in the head. Of course, I can go 10 rounds on the feet with her if I have to, I'm not afraid of doing that, I'm trained for it. I'm ready. I won't be scared on the feet with her but I think my hand can create openings to take her to the ground." Expect Dern to do exactl that (take Rodriguez to the ground) en route to her fifth straight victory. |
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10-02-21 | Niko Price -182 v. Alex Oliveira | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
I'm backing PRICE on Saturday night. These two both need a win and they know each other well. (Between them, they've got 17 kids.) They'll both be fighthing hard and it should be a good battle. Both are pretty well-rounded fighters. Each is capable on the ground and on their feet. That said, I expect Price to have the edge. He's got more power and KO ability and if it goes the distance, he's going to have an edge in volume of strikes. I don't expect that to happen though. Rather, I see Price wearing him down and scoring the knockout. Price agrees. He had this to say: "Get it done. Finish. No more judges. No more worrying about what the refs do and what they don't see. I'm coming in there to get my dub, simple as that. It won't be going 15 minutes." Look for him to get it done. |
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10-02-21 | Niko Price v. Alex Oliveira UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
I'm taking the UNDER in the Price/Oliveira fight. These two both need a win and they know each other well. (Between them, they've got 17 kids.) They'll both be fighthing hard and it should be a good battle. Price had this to say: "Get it done. Finish. No more judges. No more worrying about what the refs do and what they don't see. I'm coming in there to get my dub, simple as that. It won't be going 15 minutes." Oliveira, who hasn't made it out of the first round in losing his past two fights, had this to say: "My camp was very medieval ... I know we can't disappoint. I'm going there to give them what they want ... I'm hungry, man. I'm here for a fight." Price's fights rarely go long. This one likely won't either. |
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07-31-21 | Uriah Hall v. Sean Strickland -200 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
I'm backing STRICKLAND in the main event. Hall has fared well as an underdog recently but I believe that this is a very favorable matchup for Strickland. Hall is 36 years old and has nine losses. While he's got some impressive KO's over his career, ,many of his 17 wins are suspect. Strickland, 30, is going to come right after him. He won't give Hall any room to work. Welterweight didn't go that well for him but Strickland is undefeated in the middleweight division. He's 5-1 as a favorite in the UFC. While I feel Strickland can knock out, or outpoint Hall, he also has the option to take him to the ground. In addition to having an edge in takedowns and takedown defense, Strickland also lands 5.34 significant strikes per minute, as compared to 3.34 per minute for Hall. No upset for Hall this time. |
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07-10-21 | Greg Hardy v. Tai Tuivasa -128 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
I'm backing TUIVASA on Saturday night. Both these guys have serious power and this one's unlikely to end in a decision. While Hardy is obviously a great athlete, I believe Tuivasa is the more polished fighter. I expect him to knock Hardy out. Tuivasa started out hot in the UFC but then lost three in a row. That would have been it for some fighters. However, he dug deep and got better from it. He's won his last two in impressive fashion. While Hardy has the reach and height advantage, Tuivasa has a considerable edge in experience. Hardy got KO'd last time he stepped in the ring. I believe that showed that he's not yet ready for the better fighters in the division. I look for the resurgant Tuivasa to prove too much for him. |
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05-01-21 | Travis Browne v. Kai Kamaka -141 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -141 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
I'm backing KAI KAMAKA on Saturday night. Both these fighters lost their last fight. In Kamaka's case, he took the fight that he lost on 1-week's notice. Prior to that, he'd won seven straight. Brown, on the other hand, has lost two in a row. While Kamaka has three defeats, Brown has now lost eight times. He has yet to show he can win in the UFC. Kamaka had this to say about Brown: "He might be trying to fight the guy that took a fight on seven days notice off of moving to Vegas seven days prior, and if he does, he’s got it all wrong. He just has to be prepared for me to be in his face with a little bit different tactics. I’m excited, I’ve seen the type of fights that he likes to put on and I like to do just the same, I think I do it better though." While he does give up some height and reach, I feel pretty much the same; that Kamaka does everything a little better. Kamaka is working with some of the best and expect that to serve him well here. He commented: "I'm training along side Francis Ngannou, Dan Ige, Aljamain Sterling. It’s just crazy to see. I was in a small group session with DC (Daniel Cormier) coming into the room to help, give Francis some pointers. Francis and Aljamain, and I was one of the other couple guys that was allowed in the room. I don't think that it was by coincidence. They see my mental capacity and the love that I have for MMA and where I want to be and that’s the kind of stuff I want to do. I want to be surrounded by greatness. I want to become greatness as well." Both fighters need this one and both are going to be hungry. That should make for a good fight. In the end, I expect Kamaka to emerge victorious. |
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04-17-21 | Luis Pena -144 v. Alex Munoz | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
I'm backing LUIS PENA on Saturday night. When Luis "Violent Bob Ross" Pena burst on the scene, he did so with a lot of hype. He had the big hair, the nickname and he got off to a hot start. He may not have been quite ready for it though and needed some time to grow. He's had that time now though and is no longer over-hyped and over-valued. In fact, many seem quite down on him. Thats created excellent value for what should be a favorable matchup for him. No question that Munoz is an excellent wrestler. However, Pena is the far more well-rounded fighter and he's got a big edge in striking ability. Pena had this to say: "I'm feeling amazing actually. I can't lie, I've had some ups and downs in this camp because I have a tendency to almost overwork myself. But after taking a little bit of time to rest and recover during camp. I came back and my coaches were just blown away by how much that really helped me grow..." Expect him to have his arm raised. |
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04-10-21 | Mike Perry v. Daniel Rodriguez -135 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
I'm backing DANIEL RODRIGUEZ on Saturday afternoon. This line came down from its opener. I believe that's providing excellent value with Rodriguez. Perry has a few quality wins and he's definitely fought some tough opponents. That said, I don't see him winning a decision here and his last knockout was back in 2017. He's just 3-6 his past nine. Rodriguez, who has never been KO'd, is also off a loss. However, while Perry is 14-7, Rodriguez is 13-2. Prior to that setback, he'd won nine straight. Rodriguez is taller with a few inches in reach. While he does tend to get hit a lot, which should make for an exciting fight here, Rodriguez lands a lot of strikes. Expect him to have the advantage and emerge with the victory. |
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03-27-21 | Gillian Robertson v. Miranda Maverick -160 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
I'm backing MIRANDA MAVERICK. These two were supposed to fight last month but Robertson got sick. I was all set to back Miranda in that one and I like her every bit as much now that they'll finally fight. Here's what I said last month: "I like Miranda Maverick in the first prelim of tonight's card. Robertson has the following plan: "I'm trying to get in and out of there as quick as possible. So, straight for the throat and get the submission win." However, as Mike Tyson once said, "Everybody's got a plan until they get punched in the mouth." While Robertson is possibly the superior grappler, Maverick is no slouch in that department. She's a brown belt in Brazlian jiu-jitsu and a strong grappler. She's also got solid take-down defense which will aid in helping her keep this fight from going to the ground. With both fighters standing, I expect Maverick to have a clear advantage. Look for her to land the higher volume of strikes and for that to ulimately prove the difference." |
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03-21-21 | Derek Brunson v. Kevin Holland -169 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -169 | 179 h 17 m | Show |
I'm backing Kevin Holland on Saturday, March 20th. Brunson is capable of beating up lesser foes. However, when he steps up against quality opponents, he tends to stumbe. I believe that he's going to be outclassed in this one. Holand was 5-0 in 2020, three of those wins earning him performance of the night bonuses. At 28, he's a lot younger (Brunson is 37) and he's extremely hungry to pass this next test. Holland has a height and reach advantage. He lands more significant strikes per minute and he does so with a higher level of accuracy. Holland knows Brunson will want to get this fight to the ground and he's been working hard on his takedown defense. He's got a major edge when the two fighters are standing and the fact that its a 5-round fight, as opposed to a 3-round one, works in his favor. Holland wins. |
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03-06-21 | Thiago Santos v. Aleksandar Rakic -152 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 150 h 45 m | Show |
I'm backing RAKIC on Saturday night. Having "earned" a split decision loss against Jones, Santos is obviously no slouch. Still, he's off b2b losses and now has eight of them. Both fighters are well-rounded, both can grapple and both are strong on their feet. Lets not forget that Santos, now 37 years old, has dealt with serious knee injuries though. Rakic is younger and his big leg kicks are going to be tough on Santos. Not only does Rakic land more strikes per minute, he's taller with a reach advantage. While it should be exciting while it lasts, I see the younger Rakic winning this one by KO. |
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02-27-21 | Maxim Grishin v. Dustin Jacoby -165 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on DUSTIN JACOBY. I believe that there's a class difference between these fighters. I believe that Grishin's style will prove ideal for him and I'm expecting Jacoby to deliver the KO. Jacoby was hoping for a bigger name than Grishin and probably deserved one. He'll get one after taking care of business here though. Grishin knows how to wrestle but is considered primarily as a striker. Jacoby, who used to be a professional kickboxer, is just better at it. Jacoby had this to say: "This is what I do for a living. If I go in there get another knockout which I plan to do, maybe we turn it right around in April or May. I'm trying to stay active and be in the top-10 by the end of the year." Expect Jacoby to have his hand raised. |
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02-20-21 | Aiemann Zahabi v. Daniel Rodriguez -188 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -188 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
I'm backing DRAKO RODRIGUEZ on Saturday night. Zahabi has lost two in a row and the UFC didn't do him any favors with this matchup. Rodriguez is hungry and looking to make a splash in his debut. Off three straight wins, he brings in momentum and confidence. Zahabi, at least, will get paid. Rodriguez missed weight and will forfeit 30% of his purse to Zahabi, as a result. However, while that may help Zahabi's wallet, it's going to benefit Rodriguez tonight. Expect him to be both bigger and better, handing Zahabi his third straight setback. |
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02-13-21 | Polyana Viana v. Martin Murray -137 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -137 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
I'm backing MALLORY MARTIN on Saturday night. Martin could easily be a bigger favorite. She's a passionate fighter on a mission to climb up the rankings. I don't believe she'll let Viana stand in her way. Both fighters are brown belts in Brazlian jiu-jitus. Both are decent strikers. While Viana has an edge in reach department, I believe Martin is the much better fighter. Martin has been sparring with Rose Namajunas, one of the best in the world, which can only help. Martin had this to say: "Team Elevation. I've been training with Shana Dobson and Montana de la Rosa. J.J. Aldrich has been with us, and also Rose Namajunas. So, I've been getting lots of rounds with Rose, and it's been super helpful. I get those high-level rounds, which are very important, and I'm sparring with a former champ and probably future champ. It's really cool." Though Viana is off an impressive win by arm bar last time out, she'd lost four in a row before that. While it should be a good fight, I expect Martin's training with Namajunas and co. to pay off, as she takes care of business and continues her climb up the UFC ladder. |
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02-06-21 | Alistair Overeem v. Alexander Volkov -190 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
I'm backing ALEXANDER VOLKOV on Saturday night. If it seems like Overeem has been around forever, its because he has. His first pro fight came at 19, in 1999. While he's had some big fights, he's now 40 and at the end of this career. I won't be surprised if Volkov finally retires him. Volkov has been favored five times previously and he's got the money in four of those. He lands a lot of strikes, a high volume fighter. He's got the better chin and superior cardio. He doesn't get hurt easily. While Overeem has been on a good run, it comes to an end here. |
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01-23-21 | Andrew Sanchez v. Makhmud Muradov -143 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
I'm backing MURADOV on Saturday night. There's a class difference between these two and I believe that the line could easily be higher. Yes, Muradov takes the fight on short notice. That works the same for Sanchez though, as he was originally scheduled to fight Muniz. Muradov hasn't fought in awhile but that isn't his fault. He's eager to get back and remind everyone just how good he is. Muradov, a protege Floyd Mayweather, has both a height and reach advantage. He's also got a 4.97 to 4.57 edge, in terms of significant strikes landed per minute. If he doesn't score the KO/TKO, he should be comfortably ahead on points. |
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11-28-20 | Parker Porter v. Josh Parisian UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -134 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
I'm taking the UNDER 1.5 rounds in the Parisian/Porter fight. With both fighers throwing haymakers right out of the gate, this one isn't likely to last long. Parisian finally gets his shot at the Octagon and he's coming in to make an impression. Porter has very little, in terms of defensive skills. So, that should give Parisian plenty of opportunity to win with an early KO. However, Porter does possess both power and submission skills of his own. Parisian's last two wins both came in the first round while Porter is off a first round loss. This one ends in the first round, too. |
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11-21-20 | Mauricio Rua v. Paul Craig -170 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 82 h 8 m | Show |
I'm backing PAUL CRAIG on Saturday. Without a doubt, Rua is a legend. From Chuck Liddell to Jon Jones, this guy's fought everyone. He's even fought tonight's opponent, Paul Craig. That one ended in a draw. Since, then Rua took some more punishment in a split decision victory, while also getting older. (He'll turn 39 on Nov. 25th.) He's further from his prime than he was the first time these guys fought. After Craig beats him in this one, we're likely to hear talk of retirement. Craig, on the other hand, still has dreams of a title and is still getting better. He stepped in and took the first fight on short notice, in Rua's own backyard (Brazil) and still nearly won. After the first fight, which he took on two week's notice, Craig commented: "We were very unfortunate when we started this camp, we literally signed the contract at the start of the week and by Friday we had a serious cut above our eye. Five stitches later, we couldn't do any sparring, couldn't do any wrestling. Everything we did during that fight camp was around skill-based exercises." Things are different this time. No longer in Brazli, Craig has had plenty of time to prepare. Craig has submitted his opponent in 12 of 13 victories but I feel he's also capable of knocking "Shogun" out. Rua's legacy will remain secure but the younger Craig settles the score in this one. |
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11-14-20 | Rafael dos Anjos -165 v. Paul Felder | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 58 h 17 m | Show |
I'm backing RAFAEL DOS ANJOS on Saturday night. I don't generally go to my highest rating for favorites of this size. However, I love how this one sets up for dos Anjos and feel that the price could easily be much higher. For starters, dos Anjos is dropping down from Welterweight, where he'd been fighting some of the better fighters in that weight class. Now, at lightweight, he'll face an opponent much smaller than the one's he's been facing. To his credit, Felder is an exciting fighter. He's had some good wins. However, he's taking this fight on really short (five days) notice. His last fight (February) was a loss and he talked about retiring. I didn't feel the following comments, made by Felder, inspired much confidence: "With everything going on in the world, the sad things going on in people's lives -- losing their jobs and suffering. We just lost Alex Trebek to pancreatic cancer. I was like, 'Man, you're still 35. You're young, you're in shape. Save the day. Let's go get paid, let's have fun. You're fighting a legend.' What do I have to lose?" To me, he's already got his excuse and he'll be happy to take his beating and get his paycheque. As Felder mentioned, he's fighting a "legend." Doing so on short notice is going to prove awfully tough. After he wins this one, dos Anjos believes he can get a fight against McGregor. While it remains to be seen if a McGregor fight (they were previously supposed to fight) will come to fruition, I fully expect dos Anjos, who was previously (2015, 2016) the champ at this weight class, to take care of business against Felder. |
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11-07-20 | Cláudia Gadelha v. Yan Xiaonan -133 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 205 h 0 m | Show |
I'm backing YAN XIAONAN. This is an interesting fight. While Gadelha is a quality grappler, Xiaonan is the far much stronger striker. I believe that her superior footwork and striking will prove to be the difference. Both fighters won by decision last time out. However, Gadelha's fight was close (13 of 17 media outlets thought she lost) while Xiaonan dominated hers. These two were supposed to fight in September but the fight was postponed due to Gadelha pulling out with an injury. Xiaonan was "pissed off" as she got word the day after arriving from China. The UFC offered her a chance to fight someone different on Fight Island or wait and fight Gadelha. She chose to stick with this fight as she knows Gadelha has a high ranking and because she believes that she can beat her. She's determined to get the belt and/or a showdown vs. fellow Chinese fighter, Zhang Weili, which she says "would be the biggest moment in Chinese sports." Gadelha is tough but a determined Xiaonan wins this win by decision or KO. |
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10-24-20 | Joel Alvarez v. Alexander Yakovlev UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 41 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on the UNDER 2.5 rounds in the Alvarez/Yakovlev fight. For lightweights, these guys are both very tall. I don't see them going the distance. Alvarez is 17-2 as a professional. Fifteeen of those 17 wins came by submission and two were by KO/TKO. None were by decision. So, if Alvarez wins, history says, it won't be by decision. The same is true of Yakovlev's recent history. While he's had some recent losses, when he wins, it's also by submission or KO/TKO. He's won just two of his past five but those two wins came in the first and second rounds, a second round submission and a first round KO/TKO. Don't blink. This one should also finish quickly. |
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10-24-20 | Joel Alvarez -160 v. Alexander Yakovlev | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 12 m | Show |
I'm backing ALVAREZ on Saturday afternoon. For lightweights, these guys are both very tall. I don't see them going the distance. Alvarez is 17-2 as a professional. Fifteeen of those 17 wins came by submission and two were by KO/TKO. None were by decision. So, if Alvarez wins, history says, it won't be by decision. I believe that's exactly what we'll see. While Alvarez is up-and-coming, Yakovelev is going the other way. He's won just two of his past five. Alvarez wins, likely by submission. |
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10-17-20 | Claudio Silva v. James Krause -157 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 75 h 51 m | Show |
I'm backing JAMES KRAUSE on Saturday night. Its true that Silva has an impressive record and also that Krause took this fight on relatively short notice. However, Krause is favored for good reason, in my opinion. As for taking the fight on short notice, as a coach, Krause is always training. He was actually planning to fight Silva several weeks earlier, too. But, he received a text from UFC saying that it was off and Silva would fight someone else, Muslim Salikhov. Then, for "undisclosed reasons" on Oct. 4th, it was back on. So, he'd had some time, previously, to think about Silva. Either way, Krause is coming in determined. Losing his last fight left a bad taste in his mouth and this is a fighter that will suit him well. I believe these guys will prove to be about equal on the ground, where they're both very capable, but that Krause will have a signifiant edge in the striking department. When on his feet, Silva comes forward and attempts to throw with a lot of power. He's aggresive. That'll make for a good fight but it'll also play in Krause's hands. I say Silva, now 38 years old, suffers the second loss of his career, his first in the UFC. |
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10-04-20 | Irene Aldana +100 v. Holly Holm | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
I'm backing IRENE ALDANA on Saturday. This is a very big fight for both these ladies. Not only is it the "Main Event" but the winner puts herself in good position to take on the champion Amanda Nunes. White has stated that Aldana would, indeed, get a shot at Nunes, if she can take care of business against Holm. Obviously, Holm is the bigger name. She's a warrior, too. No doubt about it. That said, she'll be 39 in a couple of weeks and has taken a lot over the years. At 32 and 5-1 in her last six, Aldana is still up-and-coming and in her prime, arguably fighting better than she ever has. In case you missed it, Aldana shocked many when she knocked out Vieria, in less than a round. Vieira had previously been dominant and was the one who was expected to get Nunes. Go watch that fight again (you can find it online for free and it only takes a few mins) and watch Aldana. Vieira was a serious fighter - I don't think Holm would have beaten her - but Aldana moved beautifully and then deliverd an awesome KO punch. I say, its her time. I think Holm's style will suit her well and I expect another KO. |
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10-03-20 | Nassourdine Imavov v. Jordan Williams UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 107 h 30 m | Show |
I'm taking the UNDER 2.5 rounds in the Imavov/Williams fight. Both fighters will be making their UFC debut and each will be looking to make a splash with an impressive victory. Neither wants to see it go the distance. Williams has had 13 professional fights. Only two have gone the distance. Imavov has 10 fights under his belt and seven of those ended in the first round. Last time out, "The Russian Sniper" finished Jonathan Meunier in the first round. Don't blink. This one won't last long. |
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09-27-20 | Paulo Costa v. Israel Adesanya -160 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 199 h 49 m | Show |
I'm backing ISRAEL ADESANYA on Sept. 19. This is a bigtime fight. Both these impressive fighters are undefeated. Both are talking a lot of trash. They genuinely don't like each other. Without a doubt, Costa is very powerful. That said, I feel that Adesanya's precision and counter-striking ability will prove to be the difference. Costa is going to try and come forward and bring the fight to the champ. I feel that will play into Adesanya's hands. Because Adesanya was a bit lackluster in his win over Romero, many were quick to forget just how dominant he'd been before that fight. That sentiment, in turn, has led to a very reasonable line. Expect Adesanya to silence the critics, reminding everyone just how special a fighter he really is. |
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09-12-20 | Michelle Waterson v. Angela Hill -120 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
I'm backing ANGELA HILL on Saturday night. This fight was originally supposed to be the co-main event. However, as its now the main event, due to Teixeira/Santos being postponed, its a 5-round fight. I feel that favors Hill. Waterson has struggled against fighters who land a lot of strikes, like Hill. The longer this fight goes, the bigger the edge in volume Hill figures to have. While its a big fight for both, look for Hill, the first Black American woman to headline a UFC, to emerge victorious. |
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09-05-20 | Augusto Sakai v. Alistair Overeem -143 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 124 h 45 m | Show |
I'm backing ALISTAIR OVEREEM on Saturday night. Sakai comes in with arguably the more impressive record. He's 15-1-1. Overeem, on the other hand, is 46-18. I don't think Sakai is quite as good as his record indicates though and I believe that he'll struggle against the powerful and experienced Overeem. I successfully backed Sakai when he beat Arlovski last year. Many will see this one the same way; like Arlovski, Overeem is getting up in years. However, I see Overeem and Arlovski completely differently. Arlovski was clearly past his prime and I don't believe thats the case with Overeem. Yes, he's 40. The same age Arlovski was. However, he's won three of his past four and easily could have won all four. He's coming off a TKO of Walt Harris and is full of confidence. Also, Sakai was pretty fortunate to even get that decision against Arlovski. Sakai's style is perfect for Overeem, too, as he doesn't have the handspeed advantage that some younger fighters might. Overeem really is a complete fighter. In addition to being an excellent striker, he's got solid takedown ability and can pound away on the ground. Expect Overeem to teach the younger fighter a lesson. |
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08-29-20 | Maki Pitolo v. Impa Kasanganay -130 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
I'm backing IMPA KASANGANAY on Saturday night. If you haven't heard of Kasanganay, you will soon. He's undefeated (7-0) and I expect that to still be the case when he wakes up Sunday morning. Pitolo, unlike Kasanganay, has already tasted defeated six times. At 13-6 overall, he's 1-2 in the UFC. Yes, that's some extra experience - but that's experience with losing. In addition to being an excellent athlete, Kasanganay is the superior grappler. Pitolo moved up in weight class (and lost) last time and is a naturally small middleweight who would probably be better served going back down to welterweight. I say Kasanganay keeps on rolling. |
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08-15-20 | Ashley Yoder v. Livinha Souza -155 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
I'm backing LIVINHA SOUZA on Saturday night. I believe that this will prove to be a mismatch and that Souza could easily be a considerably larger favorite. Both fighters are off a loss. For Souza, it was just her second ever. At 13-2, she's hungry to return to her winning ways. For Yoder, it was her fourth loss in six fights. She's just 7-5. While Yoder is a brown belt in Brazlian Jiu-Jitsu, Souza is a black belt. Expect that difference in class to be evident, "The Brazlian Gangster" ultimately taking care of business with a submission win. |
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08-08-20 | Aleksei Oliynyk v. Derrick Lewis -188 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
I'm backing DERRICK LEWIS on Saturday night. I really like this matchup of striker vs. grappler. Lewis will try to knock out Oleinik while Oleinik will try and submit Lewis. Considering that Cormier is the only person to ever submit him and Lewis has been a pro for a decade, the latter is going to be difficult. Lewis has scored knockouts in 18 of his 23 wins. I feel that Oleinik will be victim #19. True, at 35 years old, Lewis is no spring chicken. However, Oleinik is much older, at 43. I expect Lewis to come out with a ton of energy, his take-down defense helping to keep the fighters standing up long enough for him to record the KO. |