Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -105 | 321 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. This pointspread is higher than a field goal. Many of the previous playoff games have been decided on the game's final play; both these teams just won by three. That's going to make it tempting, for many, to back the underdog. That sentiment, in my opinion, is helping to keep the line lower than it easily could have been and providing us with value on the favorite. The Bengals are a fun team to watch and they deserve enormous credit for getting here. They've got a very good young coach, an excellent young kicker, a young QB who is playing well and who has a young superstar receiver to throw the ball to. Notice the word that I kept using to describe the Bengals? "Young." This is all new to them. Until now, they've played without feeling any pressure. Now, having two weeks to realize the huge stage that they'll be on will change that. While Burrow and the Bengals may feel that they'll be back here again in the future, Stafford, Donald and the Rams know that their time is now. They may not get another opportunity. I've often found that teams, players and coaches "need to lose, before they can win." I like that the Rams have "come close" in recent seasons. I like that Stafford had to toil for all those years in Detroit. Don't be surprised when he's awarded the SB MVP. As exciting as the Bengals are, in my opinion, the Rams are better on both sides of the ball. The numbers are close but the Rams score more points and they allow less. The Rams put up those superior numbers against an arguably much tougher schedule. While some may not be impressed by the fact that they had to comeback to beat the 49'ers, keep in mind that SF was a team which had their number. The NFC West, as whole, was extremely tough. Three teams had at least 11 wins. LA, SF and Arizona combined for 37 wins themselves; Seattle is always dangerous too. The Bengals AFC North, on the other hand, arguably had a down year. Cincinnati had 11 wins but no other team had more than nine. The Steelers weren't as tough as normal, the Ravens lost Lamar to injury. The Browns dealt with issues all season. The Bengals also benefited from facing teams like the Jets, Lions and Jaguars. The Rams non-div. slate included games against the likes of the Packers, Bucs and Colts. Remember, the Rams made Kyler Murray look scared in their playoff opener. Next, they bloodied Brady en route to knocking off the defending SB champs. Of course, the fact that the game is being played at SoFi Stadium also figures to help the Rams. Being in their home city, they'll be able to avoid a lot of the hype and distractions that come along with the SB. The Rams are very well-coached and I believe that it's "their time." No more comebacks for the Bengals Rams roll. |
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01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 167 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. I really like how this one sets up for the Rams. I feel that they've exorcised some demons. I like that they dominated the Bucs, blew the lead and found a way to win. I feel that'll serve them well here. Of course, Jimmy G is no Tom Brady. The Rams are going to give him fits. The 49'ers are only here because of some fortunate kick blocks. They won't be so lucky this week though. Keep in mind that they're playing their fourth straight on the road. Forget what happened in the reg. season, the Rams are better on both sides of the ball. Expect them to prove it, covering the small number along the way. |
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01-23-22 | Rams +3 v. Bucs | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 128 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA. Needless to say, I respect Brady and the Bucs. They're the defending champs. Brady has won more playoff games than Stafford will ever play in. That said, I believe that the Rams are peaking at the right time. Tampa isn't 100% healthy at the moment. The injuries didn't hurt them against Philly but the Rams are on a different level than the Eagles. While Brady won't panic the way that Murray did, the Rams are going to be all over him. The Rams beat the Bucs by 10 back in September. That was at LA. However, they also beat them here at Tampa, last November. Factoring in those results, the Rams are 8-1 ATS the past nine meetings, 5-0 ATS the past five. While the LA defense is dominant, I also really like what I'm seeing from the offense. Stafford got the monkey off his back with a playoff win and the Beckham Jr. got going in the WC game. Kupp has been getting it done all year and now they've added Akers into to the backfield. I'll happily grab the points but I expect the very well-coached Rams to score the upset. |
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01-22-22 | 49ers v. Packers -5.5 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on GB. I love how this one sets up. The Packers are at home; a January game at Lambeau, against a team from California. The Packers had last week off to rest and prepare. The 49'ers are off a hard-fought win at Dallas. Now, they'll play another road game and will be doing so on a short week. Rodgers, one of the best quarterbacks in history, is on a mission. Garoppolo isn't on his level, at the best of times. However, he's banged-up. So are important players like Bosa and Warner. They're all expected to play. However, the short week won't make things any easier. The Packers, who won at SF earlier in the season, were the only team in the league to have a perfect home record. They won 37-10 last time that they played here, finishing with a 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record here. This will be the 49'ers fourth road game in the past five weeks. Playing at the toughest venue in the league, expect it to catch up with them. Packers win by double-digits. |
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01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs -12.5 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 61 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC. Of course, Big Ben didn't really mean it when he said: "The Steelers don't stand a chance ... " However, in my opinion, he's right. The Steelers really don't belong here. Rothlisberger has been a warrior and has done many great things. Often under-rated and under-valued, he's come through for me many times over the years, in betting and DFS. However, he's in over his head here. Tomlin is an excellent coach but there's only so much that he can do, when his team is outmatched on both sides of the ball. Mahomes and co. are still capable of scoring quickly, when needed. However, this year's team can take another team's will away with longer drives. That helps keep the defense fresher and allows them to play a lot better. They're going to get a lead and continue to build on it. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS the past nine times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. The Steelers are playing their second road game in two weeks. Last time that they played the second of b2b road games, they lost 41-10. Speaking of one-sided games, the Chiefs just beat the Steelers 36-10 here a few weeks ago. I'm expecting another blowout. |
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01-15-22 | Raiders v. Bengals -6 | 19-26 | Win | 100 | 106 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. While the Raiders did a great job in getting here, this setup is highly favorable for the Bengals. The Raiders left it all on the field against the Chargers last Sunday night, ultimately winning in OT. Off that emotional victory, they now travel east to play on a short week. Note that the Raiders suffered some serious bumps and bruises in Sunday's win. Notably, defensive lineman Darius Philion is out. He could have potentially been effective against the interior of the Cincy line. So, his absence is worth mentioning. The Bengals are rested and ready. This is their time. They took some heat for resting starters against the Browns but it will serve them well here. It's been a roller coaster of a season for the Raiders. It finally catches up with them here. The Bengals are better on both sides of the ball. They beat the Chiefs the last game here and pounded the Ravens in their previous home game. I expect a double-digit victory. |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 107 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GEORGIA. As you know, Alabama has enjoyed a lot of success on this stage. As you also know, Alabama won the first meeting convincingly. The Tide have been beating the Bulldogs for years. Yet, despite all that, Georgia is favored. So, what's different this time? The loss of Metchie III may not seem like much but its a pretty big deal. Yes, the Tide still have Jameson Williams. Perhaps the top receiver in the country, he killed the Bulldogs in the first meeting. However, the absence of Metchie and a Georgia team intent on slowing him down, will make Williams find the going tougher this time. Alabama compensated for Metchie's absence by running the bal a lot against the Bearcats. However, the Bulldogs are far stingier against the run and won't be pushed around on the line the way that Cincinnati was. These teams averaged roughly the same amount of points. Alabama averaged 41. Georgia averaged 39. On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs had a big edge. They allowed less than 10 ppg. Bama allowed nearly 20. Five teams gave the Tide real trouble this season: Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, LSU and Texas A&M. Georgia faced three of those five teams and crushed all three of them. The combined score of its win against Arkansas, Florida and Auburn was 105-17. Yet, the Tide beat those teams by only 11 combined points. Enough's enough. It's Georgia's time to shine. |
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01-09-22 | Chargers -3 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -109 | 82 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA. By the time this game kicks off, all the talk of a "tie" should have ended. Either way, I'm not worried about that. When asked about playing for the tie, SD coach Staley noted: "...I think we all respect the game and the NFL shield and the integrity of this game far too much to be complicit in something like that. This game matters too much to too many people, and we want to play our best and be proud of the result one way or another. We're going to do everything we can to go win this game, and play the way we're capable of playing." The Raiders deserve credit for fighting the whole way; it would have been easy to pack it in after Gruden's sudden departure. That said, I don't feel that they're going to be able to keep up with their high-powered guests. That was the case in the first meeting; LA won 28-14. Over their past five games, the Chargers have scored 41, 37, 28, 29 and 34 points. On the other hand, over their past five games, the Raiders have scored 23, 17, 16, 9 and 15 points. The Raiders are 3-7 ATS their last 10, when off two or more consec. wins. They're also 3-7 ATS their last 10, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. Chargers roll. |
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01-09-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -5.5 | 38-30 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ARIZONA. Playing in their home finale, the Seahawks showed some pride last week. That was against the lowly Lions though. This week, they're on the road and taking on a determined division rival. It's been a disappointing season and changes will be coming. Wilson always brings it. However, playing with a depleted lineup, I don't see the rest of the Hawks being able to muster the same type of energy this week. The Cards won at Dallas last game and need a win here. (A victory, combined with a Rams loss to SF would get them the division title.) Even if this game proves meaningless, the Cards aren't going to know it. They're going to go all out for the win. Regardless of what happens in the other game, heading into the playoffs off a big win is just what this team needs. They beat the Hawks by double-digits at Seattle and I look for them to do so again this afternoon. |
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01-09-22 | Washington Football Team v. Giants +7 | 22-7 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NY. Yes, its a "meaningless" game. Don't tell that to Joe Judge though. The Giants coach commented: "I expect to see the effort from the opening kickoff to the final whistle from our team. That's how we play around here . . . These guys have gone through a lot of adversity this year. There have been a lot of times that they could have tapped out, but this team has emptied the tank every week in preparation. They emptied the tank for each other and for the fans, to represent them every time they take the field." Judge went on to say: "We've had great energy at practice. We're going to go out there and embrace this opportunity, not look back and say we wish we had done it differently." The Giants haven't forgotten that Washington beat them by a single point, on a last second field goal, in the first meeting. Barkley is back and looking for a second straight 100 yard game. He commented: "We've got to take care of business this week. That's what's the most important thing is right now, finishing off on a high note. Only one more opportunity with this group of men in this building, so finish off on a high note." While I expect the Giants to win this one outright, it's worth noting that five of Washington's six victories, including all three of its road wins, have been by six or fewer points. Grab the points. |
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01-08-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles +7.5 | 51-26 | Loss | -118 | 101 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. There's a perception that the Cowboys will want this one more than the Eagles. I'm not certain that's the case. Yet, that perception has led to us getting a very generous amount of points with the Eagles. I feel that's where the value lies. With a win, Dallas can potentially move up. However, that would require both Arizona and the Rams losing. Either way, they're out of the running for the #1 seed. So, the value of winning this game for them is debatable. The same can be said of the Eagles. They can only climb as high as #6. In other words, both teams should place a priority on staying healthy and gaining some extra rest. Note that while Philadelphia has a number of players dealing with Covid issues, Dallas has a number of players nursing injuries. Again, staying healthy should be a priority. Yet, its still a divisional battle between two hated rivals. The Eagles are at home and looking to avenge an earlier blowout loss at Dallas. I expect the players on the field to give everything they've got. The Eagles have won three of their past five home games with the Cowboys and both the losses came by seven or less. Grab the points. |
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01-04-22 | LSU v. Kansas State -3.5 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 84 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on KSU. I successfully played on the Wildcats in their very first game of the season. It was an early, neutral site game vs. Stanford. I noted that I expected K-State to be "better on both sides of the ball this season." The Wildcats came through for me with a 24-7 win. Now, here they are, favored in the second last bowl game of the season. The line has clmbed for good reason. LSU has a lengthy list of players who will not be playing. K-State is (mostly) healthy and hungry. Football is huge in Wildcat country and the chance to take down a team like LSU, in a bowl, doesn't come around often. They'll never get a better opportunity. LSU is severely depleted on both sides of the ball. K-State running back Deuce Vaughn will have a big day against an LSU defense missing its top tacklers. Meanwhile, K-State QB Thompson is reportedly healthy. Look for him to finish his Wildcat career a winner, his team picking up the cover along the way. |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati +13.5 v. Alabama | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -105 | 80 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Needless to say, I have the utmost respect for Alabama. Saban and the Tide have come through for me numerous times over the years. I'm typically on them, more than against. That said, I believe that this Cincinnati team is better than many people have yet to realize. Asking Alabama, which has been tested multiple times, to lay double-digits is asking a lot. Yes, the Tide just beat up on Georgia. That was certainly impressive, as the Bulldogs had previously looked unstoppable. However, let's not forget that Bama only beat Auburn by two points, in its previous game. The game before that? The Tide only won by seven, against Arkansas. They beat up on a terrible team (New Mexico State) before that. No big deal. Before that, the Tide only won by six against LSU. Earlier, the Tide lost outright against Texas A&M and beat Florida, by only two. So, that's five games which were decided by seven or less. Arguably, the Tide were fortunate to even win four of those. Yet, as it was the most recent game, the majority of the betting public can't get the Georgia result out of their heads. Admittedly, the Bearcats schedule has been on the soft side. They've still gotten it done every single time. Remember, the Bearcats went on the road and beat Notre Dame by double-digits. No other team beat the Irish all year. Notre Dame had entered that game undefeated (obviously) and off a 41-13 beating of Wisconsin. The Bearcats outscored teams 39.2 to 16.1. You'll hear a lot of talk about the Bearcat secondary. That's for good reason. They've got a pair of potential first round picks. Note that Alabama star receiver Metchie III is out. That's a big deal. He was outstanding at getting open and took a lot of pressure off Alabama's other star receiver, Williams. The Tide may find a way to win but it's not going to be easy. Remember, Cinci only lost by three against Georgia, last New Year's Day. The Bulldogs were down double-digits entering the fourth quarter and won the game on a 53-yard fg as time expired. Look for the Bearcats, 5-0 ATS their last five as underdogs, to also give the Tide all they can handle, with a legit shot at shocking the world. |
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12-31-21 | Rutgers v. Wake Forest -16.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. Thanks for coming out Rutgers. While the line may appear large, this is a mismatch. While it was a disappointing end, the Demon Deacons had a great season. They only lost three games. They were 2-0 SU/ATS after losing the first two. Off the loss to Pittsburgh, they're going to be looking to run up the score in this one. After the first loss, they bounced back to win and cover against NC State, scoring 45 points. After their second loss, the Deacons went on the road and hammered Boston College 41-10. Three of Rutgers' last four games resulted in losses of 24 or more points. While the Knights average 20.5 ppg, the Deacons average more than 41. While the Knights would love to show that they belong here, they don't. Expect a blowout. |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. It's true. The Badgers didn't want to be here. They'll admit that. In some cases, teams in their situation "don't show up." I don't expect that to be the case for this well-coached team though. The Badgers didn't want to be at the Duke Mayo Bowl last year either. Yet, they still won 42-28. Nor did Paul Chryst's team want to be at the Pinstripe Bowl in 2018. Yet, the Badgers took care of business with a 35-3 beatdown of Miami. (Overall, the Badgers are 5-1 in bowls under Chryst.) This evening, they've arguably got a bigger talent edge than they had for either of those games that they "didn't want to be at." That's because the Sun Devils have lost a lot, in terms of transfers and opt outs. The running game and offensive line is depleted. That's a problem, as the Sun Devils are a team which wants to run the ball. An even bigger problem is that Wisconsin is great at stopping the run. I expect ASU to have trouble moving the ball and for the Badgers to ultimately pull away for another double-digit win. |
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12-30-21 | Purdue v. Tennessee -6.5 | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. With this game being played in Nashville, the Vols will have the edge in fan support. The Vols have a strong running game and they'll be licking their chops to go up against the relatively soft Purdue run defense. The Boilermakers are hurt by "opt outs" more than the Vols, as well as injuries. Tennessee lost a good one in Taylor but Purdue lost both Bell and Karlaftis, a pair of players which can't be replaced. Those are just two of many players that won't be available for the Boilers. The last time that the Vols played with more than a week's worth or rest, they scored 45 in a win against Kentucky. Over their last two games, the Vols scored more than 100 combined points. They're going to put up a big number again this afternoon and ultimately, Purdue won't be able to keep up. Expect a double-digit win. |
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12-30-21 | South Carolina v. North Carolina -10 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UNC. The SEC has taken its lumps so far. I expect that to continue this morning. Sam Howell gives the Heels a significant edge at QB. He's a future NFL player. Prior to this season, he was being talked up as a top 5 pick, as well as a Heisman frontrunner. While his stock has fallen, he gets one final chance to remind everyone about how good he can be. It helps that he'll be up against a depleted South Carolina team. While the Heels have plenty of experience at the QB position, the Gamecocks do not. Their starting QB left and they'll be going with unproven Zeb Noland. South Carolina is an ugly 7-16 ATS as an underdog the past 2+ seasons and that includes a 1-8 ATS mark when listed as an underdog in the +3.5 to +9.5 range. I expect Howell and the Heels to pull away for the double-digit win. |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins v. Saints +3.5 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO. As you probably heard, or figured by this line, the Saints are dealing with Covid issues. At this time, few teams aren't. The Dolphins haven't been hit nearly as hard as NO but they, too, are dealing with some cases. Some teams have been folding. Others, however, have risen to the occasion. I expect the well-coached Saints to fall into the latter category. Book has the advantage of having Alvin Kamara in the backfield. Yes, the Dolphins are hot. Keep in mind that the Saints just blanked the defending world champs though. Also, don't forget that Miami is 2-4 away from home. Those wins came by an average of four points and were both against divisional opponents. They've lost all three road games against teams from outside the AFC East. The Saints are 10-4 ATS their last 14 as underdogs. Grab the points. |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada +7 | 52-24 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEVADA. We're getting a lot of points to work. That's due in large part to the fact that the Wolfpack offense will be without its starting QB and top pass catching options. The fact that Nevada has an interim head coach is also factored in. Needless to say, those factors are all significant. That said, the Wolfpack still have several things going for them. QB Cox has been Strong's backup for a long time now (was last year, too) and will be comfortable. He knows this is his opportunity and he'll be facing a weak Western Michigan secondary. Cox also has a pair of decent running backs to hand the ball to. Its on the other side of the ball, however, where I feel that Nevada will have the real edge. The Wolfpack have the stronger defensive backs and their defensive line is outstanding. It's also worth noting that Nevada should enjoy a solid advantage in the special teams department. The Broncos really struggled in their punting game, both kicking and returning. Their field goal kicking wasn't good, either. Nevada began October with a 10-point win at Boise State. Since that time, the Pack have only lost three games. All three losses were less than field goal. Grab the points. |
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12-26-21 | Lions v. Falcons -6.5 | 16-20 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Lions got a big win for their home fans last week. Now, the Falcons will have their turn. Atlanta has had some heartbreakers this season but has continued to play hard. Now, the Falcons finally catch a break as Detroit will likely be without Goff. The Falcons have been on the road for each of their past two games. Their past two games were against the Bucs and the Patriots, two very tough teams. Needless to say, the Lions represent a big step down in class. Detroit lost 38-10 the last time it was on the road. The Falcons have won two of their last four. They haven't forgotten that the Lions beat them on a last-second Stafford TD pass last season. Payback time. |
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12-26-21 | Bucs v. Panthers +10 | 32-6 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CAROLINA. The Bucs didn't score a single point last game. Now, they're playing on the road against another hungry divisional rival. Importantly, Brady is now with a number of his top weapons. In my opinion, given the venue and the situation, asking them to lay double-digits is asking too much. This is the Panthers' home finale. They know they'll face these same Bucs, at Tampa, on Jan. 9th. They're going to be highly motivated. The Bucs are now 2-5 ATS on the road. While they're only 2-5 here, four of the Panthers' five home losses have been by eight or less. While we have to go back quite a few years, the Panthers are 6-1 ATS the past seven times that they were home underdogs in the 7.5 to 10 range. Grab the points. |
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12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers -7 | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GB. At the time, pushing last week's game against the Raiders back probably seemed like a good idea. It gave the Browns a legit chance to win that game. They very nearly did, too. Ultimately, however, they fell short. It was a devastating loss. Coach Stefanski said the following: "I'm incredibly disappointed with the result last night. Very, very frustrating to not come away with a win. But it's not a lack of effort from anyone involved. I thought the coaches and players that were out there fought their rear-ends off. I appreciate that, but it ultimately didn't get the job done, and that's what stings the most." Off that "incredibly disappointing" result, the Browns now play on a very short week, at perhaps the toughest venues in the league. While Cleveland players are returning, there's still been a lot of scrambling. The situation is far from ideal. The Packers are the only team with a perfect home record this season. All six of their home wins have come by a minimum of eight points. Five of the victories were by double-digits. Catching the Browns off a heartbreaker, still dealing with Covid and playing on an extra short week, expect another double-digit win this afternoon. |
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12-25-21 | Ball State +6 v. Georgia State | Top | 20-51 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. This line has climbed since its opener. I feel that's providing us with excellent value with the underdog. With a victory over Coastal Carolina, Georgia State is certainly worthy of respect. The Cardinals are no slouches either though. Led by an experienced QB, they've got a balanced offense. The defense wasn't a strength but got better down the stretch. While the MAC doesn't get much respect, we just saw Miami Ohio take care of business against North Texas. Prior to that, NIU played Coastal Carolina tough, losing by six. Keep in mind that these teams had a common opponent in Army. The Knights hammered Georgia State by a score of 43-10. Ball State, on the other hand, beat Army by double digits. The Cardinals are 5-3 their last eight games and two of the three losses were by seven or less. They're 13-3 ATS their last 16 against teams with a winning record. Four of their final six games were decided by a TD or less. In what should be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
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12-23-21 | Central Florida v. Florida -6.5 | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORIDA. I liked this game but waited for this line to dip below seven. As of this writing, at several shops, it finally has. While I'm not surprised, I feel that's providing us with excellent value. I say that I'm not surprised as I've been listening to people call for the upset ever since this matchup was announced. Many seem to think that the Knights will be the more motivated team and that the Gators will go through the motions. Surely, the Knights are fired up at the chance to take down their big name instate 'rivals.' They've been wanting to face Florida for years. Sometimes, teams and people need to be careful what they wish for though. Contrary to popular belief, the Gators ARE going to be hungry. They don't want to be embarrassed by an instate team. This is their chance to show everyone that they're better than their record indicates. Remember, the Gators are battle-tested against the likes of Georgia and Alabama. They very nearly beat the Crimson Tide, in fact. While Miami wasn't on the schedule, Florida has beaten South Florida, Florida Atlantic and Florida State. The avg margin of victory was 15.33 points. I'm expecting another double-digit victory. |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State -2.5 v. UTSA | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on SDSU. Regardless of what happens here, the Roadrunners have had a remarkable season. They can hold their heads high. I won with them in their last game, an impressive win over WKU. However, in their previous game, I successfully played against them. I feel that this will be another good spot to do so. Admittedly, the Aztecs didn't look too good in their last game. They were blown out by Utah State. That was just their second loss the entire season though. The Aztecs bounced back with a 7-point road win, after their previous loss. They're 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS their last six, when off a conference loss. Remember, this SDSU team beat the likes of Utah (currently #10 in the country) and Boise State. When playing with more than a week's rest earlier this season, they won 31-7, delivering one of their more dominant efforts of the season. Note that the Aztecs are 8-3 ATS their last 11 against non-conference opponents. Unlike their opponents, the Aztecs cannot "hold their heads high" if they don't win this game. Arguably, anything less than a "W" here will make for a disappointing season. I say they bounce back and get the victory, covering the small number along the way. |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears +6.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. These teams last met exactly one year ago, on December 20th, 2020. The Bears were underdogs but won outright, by six points. I'm expecting history to repeat itself. While the Vikings have risen to the occasion against some of the league's better teams, they've quietly gone 0-7 ATS their last seven against teams with a losing record. They lost their last two road games (Detroit, SF) outright. Note that 12 of Minnesota's 13 games this season have been decided by "single-digits." The only time that the Vikings won by more than eight points was back in September, a home game against Seattle. While they came up short against GB and Arizona, a pair of tough teams, the Bears are still battling hard. Prior to those two losses, their previous three games had all been decided by a field goal, or less. While the Bears are dealing with some Covid issues, that's the way things are these days. The Vikes have problems of their own. As Chicago coach Nagy noted: "It's the next-man-up mentality, not just for the players, but for coaches, too, is the way that I look at it. In these types of moments, what you've got to do is try to stay really positive, take care of your body, stay together and realize that we're not the only ones right now in that." I'm expecting Nagy's troops to leave it all on the field and, in what should be a close game, I'm grabbing the points. |
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12-20-21 | Tulsa -9 v. Old Dominion | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 148 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TULSA. These teams have identical 6-6 records. The points, for and against, are similar, too. However, the Golden Hurricane are laying more than a touchdown for good reason. Both teams closed the season by playing their best football. The Golden Hurricane won their final three games. The Monarchs won their final five. While the stats may be similar, its important to recognize that the Golden Hurricane played a far more difficult schedule. Tulsa's winning streak included a victory over SMU. Four of their six losses came against the likes of Ohio State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and Houston. ODU didn't face anything remotely close to that. The Monarchs' three toughest opponents were Wake Forest, Liberty and WKU. Those games didn't go well for them. The Monarchs lost by scores of 42-10, 45-17 and 43-20. Regardless of how this game goes, it's still a successful season for the Monarchs. That's not the case for the Golden Hurricane. They need a win here. They're a veteran team with the more balanced offense and the superior defense. Expect a double-digit victory. |
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12-19-21 | Saints +11.5 v. Bucs | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NO. The Saints offense got back on track last week. They scored 30 points en route to a dominating performance. The offense will carry the confidence gained into this evening's game. It helps that they'll face a Tampa defense which is banged-up in the secondary. Remember, they scored 36 in the earlier game against the Bucs. The Saints defense all got on track last week, allowing just nine points. They permitted only 78 yards on the ground and just 256 overall. True, that was against an inferior opponent. Still, it restored order and momentum. The Saints had the bad game against the Bills on Thanksgiving. Also, way back in September, they had a bad game at Carolina. However, that's only two games out of 13. None of the other 11 games resulted in a loss of greater than 11 points. The Bucs have seen five of their last six decided by 13 or less and four of those six were decided by 10 or less. The Saints have long given the Bucs problems in the regular season and I say they give them all they can handle again here. Grab the points. |
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12-18-21 | Marshall v. UL-Lafayette -4.5 | Top | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 109 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE. The Cajuns could easily be bigger favorites. They lost their opening game. Since then, they've reeled off 12 straight wins. That includes a pair of wins against Appalachian State, a team which defeated Marshall. The Thundering Herd got crushed 53-21 last game, one of five losses. The Cajuns are strong offensively but they also rank 18th in the country in terms of points allowed. They give up just 18 ppg. (Marshall ranks #41st and allows 23.) Of course, it should be noted that the game is being played in New Orleans, only a short drive from Lafayette. The line is relatively low, in part, because of Louisiana having a new coach for this game. However, I'm not so worried about that. This is a veteran team led by a veteran senior QB. They've had plenty of time for the new coach to get familiar with everything; the offense will remain the same. Off the loss to WKU, note that Marshall is just 1-5 ATS its last six, when off a conference loss. Expect Louisiana to punctuate its outstanding season with a win and cover. |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts -2 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. Needless to say, the Patriots have been playing great. I expect their winning streak to come to an end on Saturday night though. The Colts are off a 31-0 victory of their own. They come in extremely confident, on both sides of the ball. In their last game, the Patriots just beat Buffalo, in a huge divisional game. They'll face those same Bills again in their next game. That figures to make this a difficult spot. While the Pats are 1-4 ATS their past five against teams from the AFC South, the Colts are 5-1 ATS their last six against team from the AFC East. This season, they've beaten all the other teams in New England's division by double-digits. As for that same Buffalo team that the Pats beat 14-10, the Colts hammered them 41-15, at Buffalo. Colts keep rolling. |
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12-18-21 | UAB v. BYU -6.5 | 31-28 | Loss | -116 | 103 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BYU. I respect the Blazers and they came through for me in a big way this season. That said, I don't feel that they're in the same class as the Cougars. The question, in some of these "lesser" bowl games, is whether or not the "bigger name" team is motivated or not. Indeed, the Cougars had been hoping for bigger things. In cases where they're not motivated, the team with inferior talent can sometimes surprise. In this case, with a chance to become the first BYU team in 15 years to have b2b 11-win seasons, I expect the Cougars to still have plenty of "hunger." Note that BYU just signed its coach (Kalani Sitake) to a longterm deal, where there had been rumors that he might leave. BYU QB Hall said this of how coach Sitake had his team fired up: "He has kept so much focus on this game because that is just the type of man he is. He invests everything he has in us as players and making sure he prepares us to play the best we can. Every day has been the same thing as we approach it as a team. It is just about focusing on this game and realizing it is the most important bowl game we have ever played because it is the one we have next. Kalani has been pumping energy into us and the other coaches have done a great job of continually harping on the importance of this next game. I think as players we are taking it and running with it. I think the energy will stay the same because that is how we have been talking about it over the course of the past couple weeks." BYU receiver Romney added: "Getting to 11 wins is huge. This has been one of the hardest schedules that BYU has ever played. We have played and won against the most Power Five teams in BYU history. Cementing our legacy would be awesome, and to get 11 wins would be an amazing thing. … It would be unheard of. I think it would be really cool to go out with a bang." I've done a good job of going on/against BYU. I won with the Cougars when they put up 66 points in their win over Virginia. I also won by going against them in their last game, when they won but didn't cover against USC. I say they come in with a chip on their shoulder and win by double-digits. |
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12-18-21 | Appalachian State -3 v. Western Kentucky | 38-59 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on APP STATE. Both offenses are excellent. However, they achieve their success in different ways. The Hilltoppers are going to throw the ball. The Mountaineers are going to run the ball. While both figure to move the ball effectively, I believe that Appalachian State's ability to control the clock, something which Western Kentucky is unable to do, will prove significant. OF course, the Mountaineers' superior defense will also be a factor. I backed the Mountaineers in last year's bowl win. Facing North Texas in the Myrtle Beach Bowl, they ran Appalachian State for 506 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 13 yards per carry. Including that blowout, they're 5-1 ATS their last six neutral site games. The Mountaineers won't match those ridiculous numbers but the're still going to have some big ones. Keep in mind that WKU allowed more than 300 rushing yards to UTSA in its last game. UTSA had a 37 mins to 23 mins time of possession advantage, a familiar theme for WKU. I played against the Hilltoppers in that one and I believe that their inability to stop the run will be their downfall again. Lay the small number. |
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12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -123 | 44 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. These teams just faced each other on 11/28, at Baltimore. Playing at home, the Ravens were able to grind out a 16-10 win. The Browns have some things going for them in this afternoon's rematch, starting with the venue. Playing at home makes a big difference for both teams. They're 4-2 at home compared to 2-4 on the road. Likewise, Baltimore is 5-1 at home but 3-3 (2-4 ATS) on the road. Its also important to mention that the Browns had last week off. The Ravens, meanwhile, were involved in a battle (20-19 loss) that came down to the final play, with rival Pittsburgh. We already saw that game take a toll on the Steelers, as they weren't very good at all on Thursday. I expect it to also have an effect on the Ravens. Note that Jackson was sacked seven times in the game. Also, note that the Ravens saw all-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey go down to injury. Meanwhile, Mayfield and the Browns will benefit from the extra week of preparation and recovery time. Like all teams, Cleveland is dealing with a number of injuries. That extra week off to recovery is huge. Last season's game between these teams was a wild (47-42) affair, won by the Ravens. This year, schedule in their favor, the Browns get some payback. |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. At the beginning of the season, it looked like the Bills might run away with the division. The Patriots have found their way though. They enter this game on a 6-game winning streak. Currently, New England is 8-4 while Buffalo is 7-4. The teams will meet again in Week 16, at Foxboro. The Patriots have indeed fared well on the road. However, their road record includes wins against the Jets, Texans, Panthers and Falcons. All those teams are below .500 at home and overall. The Chargers are the only winning team that the Pats beat on the road. The Chargers are just 3-3 at home, too. So, yes, the Pats have played well on the road. However, they haven't faced a team with a home record as good as Buffalo's. While the Bills stumbled a couple of times in November, they closed the month strong. In addition to playing at home, I like that they've had some extra preparation time for this one. Over the past few seasons, the Pats are 4-6 SU/ATS when playing a game with a line in the -3 to +3 range. During that span, the Bills are 12-5 ATS when doing so. The Bills allowed a mere 190 yards in their last game. Look for them to be at their best tonight, improving to 10-1-2 ATS their last 13, after holding their previous opponent to 250 or fewer yards. |
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12-05-21 | Cardinals v. Bears +7.5 | 33-22 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Cardinals have alternated wins and losses over the last month. Off their last divisional win, they lost 34-10. Off a divisional win in their last game, I expect them to have their hands full this afternoon. Though they missed out on the cover, the Bears got back on track Thanksgiving Day with a win over the Lions. That gives them some positive momentum. Now, they're back home and getting more than a touchdown at the betting window. Prior to the win over the Lions, the Bears were off b2b losses of three points or less. So, that's three straight games decided by a fg or less. Look for another close one, the Cards falling to 3-7 ATS their last 10 games in December. |
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12-05-21 | Bucs v. Falcons +11.5 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -113 | 101 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. Obviously, I respect the champs. While I didn't touch last week's game, I won with the Bucs in their Monday night game against the Giants, two weeks ago. This Sunday, however, I feel that they're over-valued and I believe that they're walking into a hornet's nest. Admittedly, the Falcons have had a couple of duds. Their losses against New England and Dallas were ugly. However, they responded by winning their last game. I expect them to carry the positive momentum into Sunday. The 48-25 score suggests that the Bucs dominated the Falcons, in this season's first meeting. That wasn't exactly the case though. In fact, the Falcons had an edge in total yards and time of possession. The score was 28-25, entering the fourth quarter. Now, playing their second straight road game and with a big game against Buffalo on deck, the Bucs are laying double-digits on the road. They're 1-6 ATS as road favorites. That includes an 0-4 ATS record their last four on the road, when facing a team with a losing home record. This game is huge for the Falcons. Expect them to give the Bucs all they can handle for the full four quarters. |
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12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -4 | Top | 46-13 | Loss | -120 | 145 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. These teams both deserve credit for getting here. Neither were expected to do so. That said, I feel that the Aztecs are the stronger team. The Aggies wouldn't be here if San Diego State hadn't beaten Boise State last week. After everything that happened to the program last year, just being here is already a big win for Utah State. Of course, they want to win. However, the season has already been a huge success. That's not the case for the Aztecs; they're hungry for more. Last season's game wasn't even close. The Aggies ran for 407 yards. That was one of the best (9th all-time) rushing efforts in school history. I expect the Aztecs to dominate on the ground again. While one could possibly overlook Utah State giving up 437 rushing yards to Air Force, this season's Aggies also gave up 362 rushing yards to lowly Wyoming. The Aggies did bounce back from the blowout loss to Wyoming but the win came against a bad New Mexico team. They're also 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were off a conference loss. While the Aggie defense is highly suspect, the Aztecs are dominant on that side of the ball. They allow just 17.3 ppg. That's the 7th best mark in the country. While they got off to a 3-0 start, the Aggies have since stumbled against tough competition, losing against Boise and BYU. All their wins, since the 3-0 start, have been against weak or mediocre teams. On the other hand, the Aztecs have beaten the likes of Utah. I'm expecting them to pull away for a double-digit win. |
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12-03-21 | Western Kentucky v. UTSA +3.5 | Top | 41-49 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTSA. I successfully played against the Roadrunners in their game against UAB. They were favored in that game though and I felt that they were over-valued. I'm not convinced that Western Kentucky is any better than UAB. Yet, this time, the Roadrunners are getting points. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. UTSA won by six when these teams met at Western Kentucky, earlier in the season. That one was close the entire way. Both teams have played some other close ones, too. Like WKU's 2-point game with Indiana or UTSA's 3-point games against Memphis and UAB. Off this season's first setback, note that the Roadrunners are 8-1 ATS the past nine times that they were off a SU loss. They're also 6-1 ATS their last seven, after allowing more than 200 rushing yards and 4-0 ATS their last four, after throwing for less than 170 yards. The Roadrunners played in bad weather, on the road, last week. They were dealing with increasing pressure from being undefeated. As their coach said, they were probably a "little off." Three turnovers didn't help. Now, however, they're back home. To a certain extent, the pressure is off. With the line having climbed from its opener, I believe we're getting excellent value. Grab the points. |
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11-28-21 | Eagles v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 78 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY. I successfully played against the Giants last game. However, that was a road game against the defending champs. Back home and stepping down in class, this one sets up a lot better for them. A look at the Giants' schedule shows that they've had to face some really tough teams. Prior to the Bucs, their last six games were against the Raiders, Chiefs, Panthers, Rams, Cowboys and Saints. To their credit, the Giants won three of those and they nearly beat the Chiefs, losing by only three. Prior to those six games, the Giants had a pair of losses, both by three or fewer points. So, last week notwithstanding, this team has been very competitive. Firing Jason Garrett should light a spark for the offense, too. While the Eagles have won a couple in a row, they're 2-4 ATS the past six times that they were off b2b SU victories. They're also 7-12 ATS as favorites, the past few seasons. The short week shouldn't both the Giants; they're 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were off a Monday night game. This is the first meeting of the season; these teams will play again Dec. 26th. In each of the past two seasons, the first meeting in this series has been very close. The first 2019 meeting went to OT. Then, last year's first meeting was decided by a single point. The Giants would go on to win by 10 points, in the game here at NY. Look for the Giants to bounce back with a big effort and grab the points. |
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11-27-21 | BYU v. USC +7 | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing on USC. Admittedly, the Trojans haven't looked too good recently. Now, they face a tough BYU team. Naturally, I respect the Cougars. They've been solid all season and they came through for me in a big way in a recent win over Virginia. Still, unlike USC, they've clinched their bowl berth. The Trojans need this win, not only to salvage some pride but also to keep their bowl hopes alive. That would get them to five wins with a game against Cal on deck. While it may seem unlikely, I'm not writing them off from winning both those games. The Trojans are still loaded with talent, as per usual. Since that home win over Virginia, the Cougars have hosted Idaho State and played at Georgia State. Those teams don't have the type of talent USC does. Prior to Georgia State, the Cougars previous road game came at Washington State and they lost. The week before that, they played on the road, at Baylor. They lost. Their three road wins came at Utah State, Georgia State and Arizona. None of those teams were strong and the Cougars were 1-2 ATS in the wins. The point that I'm trying to make is that BYU hasn't played many tough road games and it has lost when on the road against decent teams. They're 4-8 ATS their last 12 as road favorites. Now, they're being asked to go on the road and lay a lot of points against a talented, desperate opponent. I believe that's asking too much and I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-27-21 | Oregon State v. Oregon -6.5 | Top | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on OREGON. The Ducks stumbled against Utah but I expect them to bounce back big this afternoon. Not only are the Ducks looking to atone for last week - a win sets up a rematch with Utah - but they've got revenge on their minds. The Beavers upset them last year, at Corvalis. The Beavers have been tough to beat at home this year, too. However, they've only played three road games (Colorado, Cal, Washington State) since the start of October and they lost all three. They lost those three by an average of eight points and none of those venues/teams are as tough as the one they'll contend with today. While last year's game was close, the previous six weren't. All six of those were decided by "double-digits," the Ducks taking five of them. The Ducks have won the last two against the Beavers here by a combined score of 93-20. Expect another double-digit win. |
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11-26-21 | Washington State v. Washington +1 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -107 | 59 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. You often hear people state that "you can throw out the records" in these type of rivalry games. Personally, I don't necessarily subscribe to that theory; I never discount a team's record. However, in this case, I do indeed expect the team with the inferior record to prove victorious. The Huskies are argualy better than their record suggests. Their only loss of greater than 10 points was on the road, at Michigan. They had four losses of seven or less. So, they could easily have a better record. The Cougars have won just three of 12 road games the past couple of seasons and they've got an 0-2 ATS mark as road favorites, in those games. Sure, the Cougars are off an impressive 44-18 blowout of Arizona. The Wildcats aren't very good though and the Cougars are just 1-8 ATS the past nine times that they scored 40 or more points in their previous game. The Huskies have dominated the last six Apple Cup meetings, each win coming by double-digits. While I see this one being closer, in the end, I expect another Washington win. |
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11-26-21 | Kansas State v. Texas -3 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 51 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS. Things sure fell apart for the Longhorns. They began the season by blowing out a solid LA Lafayette team. Through five games, they were 4-1 and averaging roughly 44 points per game. That included a 58-0 win and a 70-35 win over Texas Tech. With a 21-point lead in the Red River Rivalry Game, a 5-1 start looked imminent. Then, the wheels came off. The Sooners rallied for the biggest comeback in the history of the series and the Longhorns haven't won a single game since. This afternoon's game offers a chance to salvage some pride. I expect the Longhorns to make the most of it. K-State comes off a tough loss against Baylor. They managed only 10 points and 263 total yards. That was a game the Wildcats could have really used and it brings their positive momentum to an end. Note that Wildcats are 3-8 SU their last 11, when off a conference loss. They're also 0-4 ATS their last four, after passing for less than 170 yards in their previous game. The Longhorns have won four straight in the series. All four wins came by at least a field goal and last year's was a 69-31 blowout. Expect the Longhorns to show some pride and continue that series dominance on Black Friday. |
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11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints +6.5 | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NO. The Bills looked great in going 4-1 through the first five weeks. However, they've gone just 2-3 their past five games and those two wins came against the Jets and the Dolphins. This is a difficult venue. While I respect them,the way that they're currently playing, I don't feel that the Bills should be laying this many points. True, the Saints are dealing with some injuries. However, the Bills are too. True, the Saints have dropped three straight. However, the last two of those were on the road and the lone home loss came by two points. They're 4-2 here this season and both losses were by six or less. Remember, this is a well-coached team which tends to elevate its play for the "big games" here. The Saints beat the Packers 38-3 here and they beat the Bucs 36-27. Throw in a 28-13 road win at New England and this NO team has wins against three current division leaders. How many other teams can say that? Last week was just the second time that the Saints lost by more than six points. After the first time, they immediately bounced back with a double-digit win. The Saints are 9-2 ATS their last 11 as underdogs. I expect their best effort and I'm grabbing the points. Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving. |
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11-25-21 | Raiders v. Cowboys -7.5 | Top | 36-33 | Loss | -103 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on DALLAS. This line could easily be higher. True, the Cowboys are banged up at the receiver position. True, they lost 19-9 last week. They've still got weapons though and last week's loss was on the road, against the Chiefs. They're back home now; their last game here they won 43-3. The Raiders are a mess. They've lost their last three games by a combined score of 96-43. Remember, this is a team which lost its head coach. The Raiders also saw a top receiver get arrested. Then, they released their first round cornerback due to some online threats he made. Naturally, those type of things take a toll. While the Raiders still have a talented team, playing on a short week, here at Dallas, is not the place for them to "get healthy." Not only are the Cowboys 6-1 ATS their last seven home games but they're also been money when coming off a loss. Last Thanksgiving, the Cowboys had Andy Dalton at QB. They were playing with heavy hearts, as their strength and conditioning coordinator (Markus Paul) had passed away. Then, they lost a pair of starters on the game's first drive. They went on to get pounded 41-16. Things are much different this year and I expect a determined Dallas team to bounce back with a double-digit win. |
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11-23-21 | Western Michigan -3 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. The Huskies have the better record and are playing at home. Yet, the Broncos are favored. That's for good reason, in my opinion. While the Broncos have fallen on hard times recently, this is still one of the top teams in the MAC. They played road games at (10-1) Michigan and (9-2) Pittsburgh earlier and came away with a split in those games. Naturally, they'd still like to win. However, the Huskies have already clinched the conference title. On the other hand, the Broncos know a victory here would surely punch their ticket to a bowl game. (They're probably good already but its not a certainty.) They've obvioulsy done a great job but I'm still not sold on the Huskies. I say the Broncos take this one, picking up the cover along the way. |
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11-22-21 | Giants v. Bucs -11 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on TB. I won with the Giants when these teams met last November. At the time, I stated that I liked how the game set up for the Giants and that I felt the Bucs were getting overvalued. This one sets up differently. Many are suddenly now down on the defending champs. Back to back setbacks will do that. Keep in mind that those losses were both on the road. The Bucs are 4-0 SU at home, 7-1 ATS their last eight. Indeed, they're been a different team at Raymond James Stadium. The last three times that they played here they won by scores of 38-3, 45-17 and 48-25. While they've been more competitive of late, the Giants are still a 3-6 team. They've lost by 14 or more points three times. Tampa averages 31 ppg while NY averages 19.9 ppg. Tampa averages 406.4 ypg. NY averages 334. Tampa's dealing with a number of injuries but the Giants' injury issues are arguably even worse. The Bucs are 6-2 ATS over the years, as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. Expect them to improve on those stats with a statement blowout. |
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11-21-21 | Washington Football Team v. Panthers -3 | 27-21 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CAROLINA. Both teams are off impressive victories. Playing at home, I expect the Panthers to be the team which follows it up with another victory. While Washington has very little hope in the NFC East, the Panthers are right in the thick of things in the NFC South. That said, they can't afford to squander a home game against a losing team like Washington. The Football team has lost its last two road games by seven and 14 points. The Panthers won by seven, at Washington, last season. Carolina has a 35:36 to 24:24 advantage in time of possession. I see the Panthers pulling away for another win and cover Sunday afternoon. |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +1 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Packers have been on a great roll at the betting window. I expect it to come to an end this afternoon though. The Vikings have also been playing well. They've only split their last four games but three of those were on the road and all were against tough opponents. They easily could have won all. In fact, all five of the Vikings' losses have been by seven or fewer points and four of those were by four or less. Indeed, the Vikings could easily have a better record. That said, they know they desperately need this game. They're 4-1 ATS their last five as underdogs. Note that the underdog is 9-4 ATS the last 13 meetings between these teams. The Vikings have won five of the past eight meetings, outright. I say they did deep and get it done. |
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11-20-21 | UAB +6 v. UTSA | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 128 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on UAB. With Oklahoma losing to Baylor, there are now only three undefeated teams remaining. Georgia is obviously the real deal. Cincinnati is also pretty strong. I'm not sold on the third team though. Unlike Georgia, UTSA has faced a very soft schedule. The Roadrunners toughest opponents were Illinois, Memphis and Western Kentucky. While the Roadrunners deserve credit for winning, all three of those games were close and they were fortunate to avoid any losses. They gave up more than 400 yards in all three of those games including a whopping 670 against WKU. With an early game at Georgia, UAB was never going to go undefeated. Still the Blazers are 7-3 SU/ATS and surely more "battle-tested" than their hosts. Throw out the Georgia loss and the Blazers are 5-0 on the road. All five wins came by at least a TD, three of them by more than 30 points. Last week's victory at Marshall was arguably as, or more, impressive than anything UTSA has done.The Blazers have beaten the Roadrunners each of the past four years and they held them to less than 300 yards of offense in each of them. I'll grab the points, as this one could be close, but I expect there to be one less undefeated team, when this one concludes. |
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11-19-21 | Southern Miss +15.5 v. Louisiana Tech | 35-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISS. Needless to say, the Golden Eagles have had a disappointing season. They haven't won in a game since September. That said, this game provides hope as the LA Tech defense is terrible. The Bulldogs give up 33.8 ppg and 448.9 ypg. They've won three games but none of those wins came by more than 10 points. They're 1-4 ATS their last five as favorites. They ultimately lost by 10. However, the Golden Eagles were tied with UTSA, a team which now has a 10-0 record, entering the fourth quarter of last week's game. A closer look reveals that USM had a dominating 37.14 to 22.46 edge in time of possession. While the Bulldogs are off a win and cover, they're 0-4 ATS their last four, when off an ATS victory. Last year's game was decided by a single point (31-30 LT) and the past five meetings have all been decided by 15 or less. The underdog is 5-1 ATS the last six in the series. Grab the points and look for this one to prove much closer than many will be expecting. |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan -5.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on WMU. After getting upset by the Eagles last season, the Broncos have a score to settle. They're much better on both sides of the ball and the only reason the line is reasonable is due to the fact that they're on the road. That said, note that the road team is 5-1 ATS the past six meetings. Also, note that the Eagles have lost their last two games here, each loss coming by at least seven points. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in off a 45-40 victory. Admittedly, the defense wasn't as stingy as it normally is. However, it should be mentioned that the Broncos are 10-2 ATS, when coming off a game where they allowed 280 or more passing yards. So, they tend to respond from a sub-par defensive effort with a big game. Expect them to do exactly that tonight. They'll put up a big number and ultimately the Eagles won't be able to keep up. |
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11-13-21 | Stanford +13 v. Oregon State | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -119 | 101 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on STANFORD. For a team which has been playing such close games, the Beavers are laying a lot of points. The Beavers' last two games were losses of three and six points. Their last five games have all been decided by eight or less. Speaking of "close games," the last two meetings between these teams were both decided by a field goal. Stanford won both. In fact, the Cardinal have won 11 straight in the series. Oregon State just replaced its defensive coordinator as the defense has really struggled. The Beavers have allowed more than 30 points in each of their last four games. While the Cardinal have certainly disappointed, this is still a team which has wins against USC and Oregon. They're going to be hungry to get back on track and to prove they're better than they showed last game. I like that they're working with an extra day in betweem games. I'm expecting a close one and am grabbing the generous points. |
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11-13-21 | Rutgers v. Indiana -7 | 38-3 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Hoosiers are 2-7 and haven't won in weeks. Yet, they're favored over a 4-5 Rutgers team which is still hoping to become bowl eligible. That may make the underdog seem appealing. However, Indiana is favored for good reason. The Knights are an even bigger mess than Indiana, physically and mentally. Last week, they were hammered by a score of 52-3. Don't expect the Hoosiers to feel sorry for them. They're a team which has been also been beaten up and they know that this is their chance to salvage some pride. The Hoosiers have thrived in this role over the years, as they're 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS the past 17 times that they were home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. In fact, the Hoosiers are 8-1 ATS their last nine as a home favorite overall. They won by 16, at Rutgers, last season. The previous season, the Hoosiers won 35-0. Expect them to pull away for a double-digit win, improving to 7-3 ATS their last 10 in November. |
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11-12-21 | Cincinnati -23 v. South Florida | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. This is a mismatch and I expect it to get ugly. Undefeated on the season, the #5 ranked Bearcats want to make a statement that they're a national title contender. This is their chance to show the world how good they really are. Major advantages on both sides of the ball, I expect them to make the most of the opportunity. Off b2b double-digit losses, the Bulls have seen better days. They haven't faced an opponent as good as Cincinnati, yet they've lost by double-digits five times. Three of those losses came by greater than 21 points. Indeed, this is a USF team which is absolutely capable of getting blown out, again. The Bulls are going to have real trouble moving the ball and they won't be able to stop the Cincy ground game. While the Bearcats allow 14.9 ppg, the Bulls allow 34.3. Look for the Bearcats to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, as USF falls to 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) its last six, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina +6.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. The Tar Heels are off a win over Wake Forest. Down double-digits, they dominated the fourth quarter. While some might expect a letdown, I believe that type of comeback victory will provide them with positive momentum for this game. The Panthers are having a strong season. However, the Tar Heels match up well against them. Also, note that Pittsburgh lost outright to Miami last time it was on this field. Getting points in this matchup is an attractive proposition as games between these teams tend to be to close. They've met eight times since 2009 and ALL eight of those games were decided by seven points or less. Pittsburgh won the most recent game in OT. The previous three meetings were decided by three, three and one points. Overall, UNC has covered five of the past seven meetings. With the line having climbed from its opener, I'm grabbing the points. |
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11-09-21 | Akron v. Western Michigan -25.5 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. While the line may seem large, this is a mismatch. WMU, 11-5-1 ATS its last 17 as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 range, has big edges on both sides of the ball. I successfully played on the Zips when they beat Bowling Green. That was their only conference win of the season though. The rest of their MAC games have been losses; their only other victory came against Bryant. Blowout losses (60-10 and 59-7) against Ohio State and Auburn were expected. However, the Zips have also been blown out (45-10) by the likes of Buffalo. Now, they've just fired their coach, who had led them to a 3-24 record during his time there. Don't expect the Broncos to show them any mercy. They're better than their record suggests and they still need a victory to become bowl eligible. They won 58-13 at Akron last year and this one will also get ugly. |
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11-07-21 | Titans v. Rams -6 | Top | 28-16 | Loss | -110 | 153 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA RAMS. While the Titans have been rolling, I expect the Rams to provide them with a dose of reality. This will always going to be a very tough game. When news broke Monday morning about Henry being out, it got much tougher. While I'm generally of the mind that one running back is pretty much the same as another, there are obvious exceptions. Henry is one of those. The Titans will miss him. Again, this was going to be a tough game even with him though. The Titans left it all on the field in a divisional battle last week. They're now playing their second straight on the road. Prior to that, they'd had huge games against the Chiefs and Bills. I expect it all to catch up with them. The Rams are off a relatively "relaxing" 38-22 blowout of Houston. Prior to that, they'd faced the Lions and Giants. While the Titans are weary from all their battles, after facing all those losing teams, the Rams are itching to finally have one. They're 7-3 ATS their last 10, when facing a team with a winning record, in the second half of the season. Statement win and cover for the Rams. |
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11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +3 | 24-6 | Loss | -110 | 162 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CAROLINA. Off a hard-fought win on the West Coast and now playing an early game in the Eastern Time Zone, I feel that this will be a tough spot for the Patriots. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS their last 10 against teams from the AFC. While they're off b2b road games of their own, both were in the Eastern Time Zone. They've had a number of close losses and are arguably better than their record suggests. Off a victory at Atlanta, they bring some much needed positive momentum into this week's game. Remember, this is a team which hammered them Saints here and which nearly won, at Dallas. Carolina allowed just 82 rushing yards last week. New England allowed roughly twice as many, giving up 163. While the Pats are 0-4 ATS their last four after allowing 150 or more rushing yards, the Panthers are 4-0 ATS their last four, after allowing 150 or fewer rushing yards. Grab the points. |
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11-06-21 | Old Dominion v. Florida International +3 | 47-24 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FIU. The Monarchs are off an upset win. The Panthers are off a blowout loss. Yet, the Panthers match up well against this team. I see them scoring the upset and earning their first FBS victory since 2019. Last week was the low point, rock bottom. That was on the road though and ODU isn't nearly the team that Marshall is. The Monarchs are 0-10 on the road the past few seasons. Yet, they're laying points here. Off a rare conference win, I feel that they're ripe for a letdown. Grab the points. |
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11-06-21 | Penn State v. Maryland +10.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARYLAND. While I respect the Nittany Lions, I feel that this is a tough spot for them to be laying this many points on the road. For starters, the Nittany Lions have dropped three in a row. Also, the Terps can score points with the best of them. They average 29.5 ppg. Penn State averages 26.5 ppg. At home, the Terps average 36.2 ppg and 473 ypg. On the road, the Lions average 20 pgg and 326 ypg. True, Penn State may be thinking about revenge. Maryland scored a major upset in winning 35-19 at State College last year. That result should give the Terps confidence though. Also, Penn State is still probably thinking about what could have been, coming off three straight close losses - the first two by a field goal or less and last week by single digits against Ohio State. Those type of losses take a toll. On the other hand, Maryland snapped a losing streak of its own last week, earning a momentum building 38-35 victory vs. Indiana. I also like the fact that Penn State has a huge game vs. Michigan on deck. As badly as the Lions need this win, they'll still have next week's game in the back of their minds. While the Terps have struggled against top tier teams (Iowa, Ohio State) I like how this one sets up for them. Remember, this is arguably a better Maryland team then the one which beat the Lions on the road last year. Look for Penn State to fall to 2-8 ATS the past 10 times it was off a Big Ten loss. |
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11-06-21 | Colorado State v. Wyoming +3.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WYOMING. The Cowboys are on an ugly 4-game slide. However, I expect them to right the ship this afternoon. I believe that the Cowboys are catching the Rams, who have lost b2b games of their own, at the right time. While they ultimately came up short, the Cowboys' offense, including the ground game, was solid at San Jose State last week. They ran for 272 yards and had an edge in both first downs and time of possession. A similar formula will serve them well this afternoon. While they lost at CSU last season, the Cowboys are still 4-1 ATS the past five meetings. They won by 10 here in 2019. Grab the points. |
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11-06-21 | Liberty v. Ole Miss -10 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 137 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OLE MISS. The Flames only previous game against an SEC opponent resulted in a 53-0 loss. This one won't be nearly as lopsided. However, in the end, I expect another double-digit victory for the SEC team. While Liberty has a strong team again this season, this is also a very talented Rebels team. Ole Miss has only lost twice. Both losses were on the road. Both came in the state of Alabama. The Rebels have beaten the likes of Louisville, Tennessee, Arkansas and LSU. They're 5-0 here and four of the victories were by 14 or more points. Despite having played a very weak schedule, the Flames already have a loss. They lost outright as 32 point favorite. Favored by more than 20 points in each of their last four games and with UAB being their toughest opponent, the Flames haven't faced anything near the type of talent they'll see here. The Rebels have thrived as favorites. Expect them to pull away for a convinving victory. |
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11-04-21 | Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette -12 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA. I backed the Cajuns on Saturday and said to expect a blowout. Laying -21 points, they won 45-0. Georgia State represents a tougher opponent. However, I still believe its a mismatch. The Cajuns are that strong. True, the Panthers played them tough last year. Louisiana only won 34-31. That was at Georgia State though. The Cajuns were also off one of the biggest wins in program history as they had just upset a Top 25 team (Iowa State) on the road, one of the biggest wins in school history. Off that "emotional" victory, the Cajuns were in a tough spot to go on the road. This one sets up much differently though. This time, instead of playing b2b road games, the Cajuns are off a comfortable blowout win, right here at home. Playing on a short week, that will serve them well. On the other hand, the Panthers are off an "emotional" road win against an instate rival. This time, they're the team playing b2b road games. Playing on a short week, in that situation, won't help them. The Cajuns are 7-3 ATS their last 10, as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. With a chance to show the ESPN audience how strong they are, expect the Cajuns to improve on those stats tonight. |
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11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 40 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC. The Giants sure looked better than the Chiefs last week. With last week's win, they showed they aren't a joke. Yet, the Chiefs are favored for good reason. Kansas City has been an elite team for the past few seasons. After getting embarrassed last week, we'll see the best of the former champs. This is a chance to redeem themselves on National TV and to remind everyone of how good they can be. Indeed, the Giants are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. No strangers to the spotlight, the Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four on Monday night. Winning here, on Monday night, was already going to be difficult enough, if healthy. The Giants are a banged-up team though, which makes things considerably more difficult. The last time that the Chiefs were off a loss, they bounced back with a 31-13 blowout win. After their previous loss, they bounced back with a 12-point win, at Philadelphia. I'm expecting them to pull away for another double-digit win on Monday night. |
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10-31-21 | Bengals v. Jets +10.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 101 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on the NY JETS. Last week's results are helping to provide us with excellent value. The Bengals beat up on Baltimore. The Jets got pounded by the Patriots. Those scores and the injury to Zach Wilson has led to a double-digit spread. While the Bengals are clearly better than they've been in the past, asking them to lay this many points, in this spot, is asking too much. I also played on the Jets in their last game here. The setup was somewhat similar. The Jets were off a blowout road loss and hosting a quality AFC opponent. In that case, the Jets were hosting the Titans, a team which was off a big win. As you're likely aware, the Titans have since beaten both the Chiefs and the Bills. Yet, the Jets beat them outright. Now, they're back home and getting even more points than they were for that game. Sure, White goes instead of Wilson. He got some playing time last week though and was 20 of 32 for 200+ yards. Coach Saleh said this of White: "He's a very calm man. He's a great communicator, he's got great command of the huddle. He's got great command of the offense. He understands progression reads and how to go through a progression, get the ball where it needs to go. He understands how to slide in the pocket to throw instead of slide in the pocket to run. He doesn't panic." I'm comfortable with him, or Flacco, running the offense. Importantly, I believe that the Jets are catching Cincinnati at the right time. The Bengals will be playing their third straight road game. That's the only time that they'll do that this season. Off their big win against the hated Ravens, the Bengals could easily be patting themselves on the back a little. Also, they've got instate rival Cleveland on deck. In other words, it should be easy to look past the lowly Jets. While they may have won big last week, the Bengals have seen four of their seven games decided by a field goal. Prior to last week's loss, the Jets had seen two in a row decided by seven or less. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points. |
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10-30-21 | Texas State v. UL-Lafayette -20.5 | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 115 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE. This is a major mismatch and I'm expecting a blowout. These teams have met eight times. The Cajuns won all eight of those games and they covered seven of them. They outgained the Bobcats by an average of 506-304 yards in those games, too. The talent gap is arguably bigger than ever. I like that the Cajuns eked out a victory in their last game. It was their third win of three points or less already. After each of the previous two "close wins," they responded by blowing out their next opponent. The scores were 49-14 vs. Ohio and 41-13 vs. App. State. Remember, Texas State gave up 42 points in a loss to "Incarnate Word," an FCS school and was also blown out 59-21 at Eastern Michigan. Not that they need any extra advantages, but the Cajuns have also had a couple extra days in between games. Expect this score to get ugly. |
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10-29-21 | Navy v. Tulsa -10.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on TULSA. I love how this one sets up for the Golden Hurricane. While Tulsa is off a hard-fought close win, Navy is off a hard-fought close loss. This is a young Navy team and they really left it all on the field against a top team in Cincinnati. Having nearly pulled off the monumental upset, (the Midshipmen were 29 point underdogs) only to come up short, will take a toll this week. Playing on the road, on a short-week, doesn't make matters any easier on the Midshipmen. Note that the Midshipmen are winles on the road this season, most recently losing by 18, at Memphis. While Navy plays on a short week, Tulsa is off a bye. The Golden Hurricane are 6-1 ATS their last seven, when off a bye. They won by 13, at Navy last year. Schedule, venue and setup in their favor, expect an even bigger margin of victory on Friday night. |
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10-24-21 | Washington Football Team +9 v. Packers | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -123 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Packers have been playing well. However, I feel that this will prove to be a very difficult spot for them. They're off a divisional win and they've got a Thursday showdown - and potential playoff preview - with Arizona, on deck. Additionally, the Packers are dealing with a number of injuries. The only team that GB beat by more than 10 points this season was Detroit. Two wins have come by a field goal or less. Washington has played a very difficult schedule. Four of the Football Team's six games have come against the likes of the Chargers, Bills, Saints and Chiefs. Their only other two games were against the Falcons and the Giants. Washington won both of those games. Having taken on so many elite teams already, the FT isn't going to be intimidated here. While the Pack are certainly tough, Washington is 6-3-1 ATS its last 10 against teams with a winning record. The last three meetings have seen Washington go 2-1. The lone GB victory was by only five points. Expect Washington to give the Pack all they can handle again, with a great shot at the outright upset. |
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10-23-21 | Colorado +8.5 v. California | 3-26 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Bears are laying more than a touchdown. For a team which is just 1-5, I believe that's asking a lot. Cal is just 2-9-1 ATS its last 12 games here. The Buffaloes have won three of the past five meetings. One of Cal's victories, over that 10-year stretch, came by a field goal. To put that another way, the Bears have only beaten the Buffaloes by more than a field goal (they won by 12) once in the past decade. The Bears battled hard against the Ducks last time out but came up short. That would have been a big win for them but to come up short figures to be demoralizing. On the other hand, the Buffaloes have some positive momentum, as they're off a 24-0 shutout victory. Expect this to be a close game and grab the generous points. |
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10-23-21 | Wisconsin -3.5 v. Purdue | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 32 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Boilermakers are off a big win over Iowa but I don't expect them to be able to duplicate that feat against Wisconsin. After a slow start, the Badgers have found their form. The defense is stingy, as per usual. Some recent low scores notwithstanding, this also a very talented Badger offense. The Badgers have beaten Purdue 14 straight times. Every one of those victories came by at least a field goal, too. Note that Purdue is just 1-5 SU/ATS its last six, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. While the Boilermakers are improved, this isn't the year that they snap the series losing streak. Badgers win again and cover the small number along the way. |
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10-23-21 | Syracuse v. Virginia Tech -3 | 41-36 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VT. The Orange have endured three straight 3-point defeats. Those type of demoralizing losses eventually catch up to a team. I expect that to be the case here. The early start time and the boisterous Hokie home crowd won't make things any easier for the Orange. Note that Orange may have fared well as underdogs recently but they're still just 1-5 ATS the past six times they played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3. Off b2b losses of their own and with b2b road games on deck, the Hokies can't afford to squander this opportunity. Remember, this is a VT team which defeated UNC. The Hokies are better than their record suggests. Expect them to bounce back with an important victory, covering the small number along the way. |
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10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida -2.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 121 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UCF. The Tigers come in with the better record but the Knights are favored for good reason. While the Knights have lost three games, all three of those losses came on the road. While they would have liked to have won at Navy and Louisville, those were both very close losses. Also, there's no shame in losing at Cincinnati. At home, the Knights are 3-0, including a victory over Boise State. The Tigers have also struggled on the road. They've lost their last two road games; their only road win came at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves aren't good, yet the Tigers only won by five and they gave up 50 points. Going back further finds Memphis at 4-9 ATS its last 13 road games. While the Knights have had trouble covering larger spreads, this line is low enough that a SU victory should also result in an ATS win. That said, the Knights are 5-1 SU their last six off a conference loss and 11-2 SU their last 13 at home. Speaking of "homefield dominance," the Knights are 7-0 ATS their last seven as a host in this series. All seven wins came by at least a TD. Look for the Knights to continue their success here, avenging a tough loss at Memphis last year. |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +3.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 73 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE. Needless to say, this is a huge game for both teams. Coastal Carolina wants to stay undefeated. Appalachian State wants respect and revenge. It's true that the Mountaineers have a couple of losses. In fact, I successfully played against them in their last game. However, it's also true that both of their losses came on the road. They're 3-0 here at home, 14-2 the past few seasons. Having lost at Conway last year, the Mountaineers are thrilled to get this matchup here at home. They hammered the Chanticleers 56-37 the last meeting here. They're also 4-1 ATS their last five as underdogs. I feel that these teams are quite evenly matched. Yes, the Chanticleers brought back a lot from last year's strong team. The same is true of the Mountaineers though. Speaking of 2020, last year's game had a line of -3, despite Coastal Carolina playing at home. That said, getting points at home is great value. In what should be a good team, I expect AT LEAST a cover for the revenge-minded Mountaineers. |
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10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +3.5 | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. The Cowboys are playing well and have a perfect 5-0 ATS record out of the gate. That has many jumping on the bandwagon. After all, this is "America's Team" that we're talking about. Winning at Foxboro isn't easy though and the Cowboys' hot start has led to them laying a fairly big number. I believe that's asking too much. Note that both Dallas road games have been decided by a field goal or less. Meanwhile, two of New England's three losses were also by three or fewer points. The Pats are off a road win and they lost by only two points to Brady and the defending champs in their previous game. With an O/U line currently at 50.5, note that the Pats are a dominating 25-8-1 ATS (31-3 SU) their last 34, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 49.5 or higher. In what may well be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -3.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -100 | 55 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Arizona checks in with an perfect record. The Cardinals have indeed been playing well. Playing at home, the Browns are favored for good reason though. The Browns have only played two home games and they won both by double-digits. The 49'ers gave the Cards all they could handle last week. Arizona was at home and was against a team which was playing without its #1 QB. I had a big play on the 'under' so I was happy that the Cards did play excellent defense. The offense managed only 17 points though. Now, they're on the road against a far more formidable opponent. This will already be the Cards' fourth road game through the first six weeks. That's a very tough schedule. While they've obviously done a great job, I believe it'll catch up to them here. The Browns are already 2-0 ATS when the O/U line was 49.5 or higher. Going back further finds them at 5-2 ATS their last seven in that situation and 10-5 ATS their last 15. While both teams are dealing with some injuries, the cards are also dealing with some Covid issues. Look for the Browns to hand them their first loss, picking up the cover along the way. |
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10-17-21 | Dolphins v. Jaguars +3.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 94 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. This is a great opportunity for the Jags to break through and win a game. They're going to be extremely motivated and I like their chances of doing so. Miami hasn't played well. The Dolphins have been outscored 154-79. (That's a little worse than the 152-93 margin which the Jags have been outscored by.) The Dolphins' chances of making the playoffs are arguably no better than Jacksonville's. They're 1-4 behind the 4-1 Bills in the division while Jax is 0-5 behind 3-2 Tennessee.) That said, the likelihood of either team making the playoffs is already extremely slim. That being the case and with this game being played in London, I believe the team which wants it more is going to have an advantage. Surely, the Jags want to snap their skid. The fact that they've played here regularly over the years should work in their favor. This isn't new. At least, not for all of them. Lawrence has been making progress and has cut down on turnovers the past two games. The Dolphins only win of the season was by a 17-16 score. Grab the points. |
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10-16-21 | Michigan State v. Indiana +4.5 | 20-15 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on INDIANA. The Spartans have been better than the Hoosiers so far this season. This is a very tough spot for them though and I believe that they'll find out that Indiana is better than advertised. The Spartans are off a road win and they've got a bye, followed by Michigan, on deck. If there's even a game to look ahead to, it's that one. Always a big game, this year's meeting with the Wolverines is really being looked forward to, with both the instate rivals off to strong starts. With the Wolverines playing their second straight on the road here, I like that the kickoff time is 12 ET. The Hoosiers are 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) the past six times that they were off a conference loss and they're 8-3 ATS their last 11 here at home. Of course, the Hoosiers have a big game of their own (Ohio State) on deck. However, they're off a bye and they don't have the luxury of looking ahead. This is their homecoming game and they're going to be focused on the task at hand. The Hoosiers are an experienced team, one which beat Michigan State 24-0 last year. While they still won't get Penix Jr back, it was the defense which dominated the Spartans last year. (Penix had 2 TDs but also threw 2 INTs) The Hoosiers had a 433-191 edge in total yards. I'm grabbing the points. |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +10 | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ SJTATE. Naturally, I respect the Aztecs. This is a big number though and its risen from its opener. I believe we're getting excellent value with an under-rated and under-valued Spartans side. The Spartans have struggled on the road but they have yet to lose at home. The Spartans have played the Aztecs tough. They lost by three in 2018 and by 10 in 2019. Then, last year, they beat the Aztecs outright. That 28-17 victory will provide them with the confidence to know they can complete in this game. Note that they held SDSU to a season low 2.2 ypc in that game. Even off last week's loss, the Spartans are still 10-5 ATS in Conference play, the past few seasons. Expect them to bounce back by giving their guests all that they can handle. |
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10-15-21 | Clemson -14 v. Syracuse | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -108 | 96 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers haven't been a good bet this year; they're 0-5 ATS thus far. I expect them to finally snap that streak Friday though as I love how this one sets up. First, understand that Clemson has far superior athletes across the board. The Tigers may have struggled to being the post-Lawrence era but they're still extremely talented. The defense is among the best in the country. Clemson bounced back from a loss to win its last game. It wasn't pretty but I like that the Tigers found a way to get the victory. They've since had a bye and are ready to make a statement in front of the national audience. Remember, this is a team and coach with a lot of pride. They don't like hearing all the talk about their reign being over. Note that Clemson is 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) its last six off a bye. While the Tigers are playing with extra rest and preparation time, the Orange play on a short week. They're off their second straight very close loss, too. Those are the type of defeats that take a toll, particularly when a team has suffered two of them in a row. Last time the Tigers came here they won by a score of 41-7. I'm expecting another blowout. |
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE on Tuesday. These are both solid teams and this should be a good game. I believe that the Rajin' Cajuns are providing outstanding value. Both teams have won the games which they were expected to win. Each is 4-1. Their losses came at Miami and at Texas. So, they were also expected. It's true that the Mountaineers played the Hurricanes closer than the Cajuns played the Longhorns. They still lost (a close one) though. It's also true that the Mountaineers are off the bigger win. That's fine with me though; those results have helped this line climb. The Cajuns still won a road game; I like the fact that they've learned to win the close ones. (Three of their four wins have been by single digits, two by three points or less.) Knowing how to win those close games will serve the Cajuns well in this one. For what it's worth, the last time that they were on this field, the Cajuns crushed Ohio by a score of 49-14. That's a bigger margin of victory than App. State has managed in a game this season. The last five meetings have all been quite close, each decided by 11 or less. After coming out on the wrong side of those games for several seasons in a row, the Cajuns finally broke through with a 3-point win in last year's game. I'm expecting another close one. Note that the line has climbed from its opener, providing additional value. While I believe that the Cajuns have a great shot at the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points |
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10-11-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. The Colts got on track last week. Their first win under their belts, I expect them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's game. Despite their 1-3 start, the Colts are very much alive in the AFC South still. Houston and Jacksonville are a combined 1-9. That said, they really need to avoid falling too much further behind the 3-2 Titans. The Ravens beat the Colts by 14 last season. However, a look at the stats shows that the Colts were right there with them. In fact, the Colts had more first downs, more rushing yards and significantly more passing yards. Turnovers were the difference, including a 65-yard fumble recovery TD. The Colts had the lead at halftime though and I believe that they're fully capable of battling the Ravens the entire way tonight. Note that Wentz is getting healthier for the Colts and had a full week of practice. He was 24 of 32 last week with two TDs and zero interceptions. Meanwhile, the defense allowed only 13 first downs and 203 total yards, many of those coming in the fourth quarter. The line has climbed and I'm grabbing the points. |
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10-09-21 | Buffalo v. Kent State -5 | Top | 38-48 | Win | 100 | 130 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Golden Flashes had some lean years recently. So, many still think of them as a really bad team. The opposite is true of Buffalo. The Bulls have been really strong the past few seasons. So, many have an idea of them being a MAC powerhouse. This year is different though. The Bulls lost a lot of players from last year. Last year's coach left in the spring and a number of players followed him out the door, along with the entire coaching staff. That means that its all new players and new systems. Kent State, on the other hand, is highly experienced. Yet, because the Golden Flashes have played road games at Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland, their stats make them look bad. The Bulls dropped 70 on the Golden Flashes in the last game of last season, setting a number of records along the way. Kent State has been waiting for Saturday's rematch ever since. The Golden Flashes are 8-1 ATS their last nine against teams with losing records. Expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here, putting up a big number en route to a double-digit win. |
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10-09-21 | San Jose State +3 v. Colorado State | 14-32 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ STATE. This line opened closer to pick but has climbed from its opener. I feel that's providing us excellent value with the visitors. The Spartans are the reigning MWC champs. They were 7-1 last year and they're 3-2 this year. Remember, they brought back 19 starters from last year's team and are arguably even stronger. The Rams, on the other hand, were 1-3 last year and have just one win so far this year. While I do believe the Rams are better than that record suggests and improved from last year, I still feel that this is a tough matchup for them. Note that the Rams have a couple of key players who are banged-up. Also, note that road team is 4-0 ATS the last four meetings in the series. I say the Spartans improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover on Saturday afternoon. |
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10-09-21 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -5 | 51-52 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OLE MISS. Both teams got thumped on the road last weekend. Ole Miss lost 42-21, at Alabama. Arkansas' loss was worse. The Razorbacks lost 37-0, at Georgia. I believe that the Rebels are the superior team. Playing at home, I expect them to be the team which bounces back from last week's loss. I also ike the fact that the game got moved to the morning slot; this is the third straight game that the Razorbacks have played away from home. (Prior to the game at Georgia, they faced Texas A&M, at Arlington.) The home team is 4-1 ATS the past five in this series. The Razorbacks won by 12 at Arkansas last season. The Rebels won by 14 here the previous year. The Rebels won 61-21 the last time that they were a home favorite. I'm expecting another double-digit win. |
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10-09-21 | Akron +14.5 v. Bowling Green | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 114 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on AKRON. I don' think that there's much separating these teams, in terms of talent. Consider that Akron won 31-3 when these teams met last year. That result will provide the Zips, who brought back 18 starters from that team, with confidence for this one. While the early results haven't been there, this team is stronger than last year. Games at Auburn and Ohio State didn't help the stats but should serve the Zips well here. Meanwhile, Bowling Green brought back only 11 starters. Sure, Bowling Green has a couple of wins. One was by four points though. Now, this relatively inexperienced team is laying points for the first time since 2019. Note that the Falcons are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 as favorites. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way in this one. |
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10-08-21 | Charlotte v. Florida International +4 | Top | 45-33 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on FIU. In a game where I expect the Panthers to win outright, getting points is a nice bonus.The Panthers are coming into this game extremely hungry. Butch Davis' Panthers lost in OT to Texas State back on 9/11. It was a hard-fought game that they could have won. Since then, their next three have come on the road. So, it's not surprising that they lost them. Charlotte hasn't won on the road either. Both the 49'ers road games have resulted in double-digit losses. This is the only time in this season's schedule where they'll be playing consecutive road games. The short week figures to favor the home team. Remember, the Panthers brought back 18 players from last year while Charlotte brought only back 13. Note that the 49'ers are banged up in their secondary, an area where they lost some key guys from last year. These teams met here in 2019. The Panthers won 48-23. This one will likely be a lot closer (FIU won each of the previous three by a TD or less including two 1-point wins) but I expect the end result to remain the same. Grab the points. |
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10-07-21 | Houston v. Tulane +7 | 40-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TULANE. This line has gone up and I believe that's providing us with excellent value. The Green Wave have played some really tough opponents. September's schedule included Oklahoma, Ole Miss and UAB. Then, they started October on the road. Obviously, Houston is another talented opponent. Still, the Green Wave are at home and I believe that they're going to be bringing their best effort. Note that Houston is 4-11-1 ATS its past 16 as a road favorite of -3.5 to -7 points. (Nine of those were outright losses.) Also, recall that Tulane very nearly beat the Sooners. The Green Wave, who have an experienced offense, traded punches with the Cougars for a half, at Houston, last year. In fact, Tulane had a 24-21 lead at halftime. Playing at home, Houston pulled away in the second half. The Green Wave are 9-2 ATS their last 11 lined home games though. This is a very big game for them. They're "battle tested" and I expect them to give their guests all they can handle. Grab the points. |
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10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +7 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW YORK. Many are probably expecting this one to be a rout. I believe that a banged-up Titans team is walking into a hornet's nest though. As Vrabel noted: "It's tough to go on the road and win, records don't mean anything. We have to show up ready to play ..." The Jets are playing better defense than many realize. Vrabel also added: "The Jets have one of the best defensive fronts we'll face this year." Tannehill added: "They get after the quarterback. They have size, they have quickness, they have strength. Those guys are coming to play." The Titans' lone road game was decided by a field goal. They're off a divisional win and they've got another divisional game on deck. Look for them to have their hands full the entire way, falling to 5-8 ATS their last 13, when off two or more consecutive wins. |
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10-02-21 | Fresno State v. Hawaii +10.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 110 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on HAWAII. I respect the Bulldogs. However, they're laying a lot of points here and I expect them to have their hands full. Hawaii brought back 18 starters from last year's team. Last year's team won 34-19, at Fresno State. The line for that game was only +2.5. Now, playing at home with arguably a stronger team, the Warriors are getting considerably more points. Value. Fresno State also returned a ton of starters, as the Bulldogs brought back 19 from last year's team. They only beat UNLV by eight last week though, a game where they were laying -30 points. Kind of disturbing to give up 281 passing yards and 30 points to the Rebels. Note that the Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS the past five times that they allowed more than 280 passing yards in their previous game. Also, note that their last three games against Div 1 teams have all been decided by eight points or less. The Warriors are off a confidence-building 41-21 blowout win at New Mexico State. Before that, in their last game here, they played a good San Jose State team tough. They lost by only four points. Speaking of close games, Fresno's last visit here was decided on a field goal, 41-38, as time expired. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the generous points. |
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10-02-21 | New Mexico State v. San Jose State -26 | 31-37 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SAN JOSE STATE. The Aggies are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Spartans are a much better team than they've shown. Their problem is that their last three games have come on the road. Their next is also on the road, before they have a big game here against San Diego State here in the middle of the month. That being the case, they're going to want to build confidence with a one-sided blowout. They're stronger on both sides of the ball and I fully expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. The Spartans are 2-0 ATS over the years, as home favorites in the -21.5 to -31 range. Note that the line has come down from its opener, providing some additional value. These teams used to play in the same conference; the last meeting was a 47-7 destruction, the Spartans outgaining the Aggies by a 504-220 margin. While that was a number of years ago, we can expect another lopsided result tonight. |
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10-02-21 | USC -7.5 v. Colorado | 37-14 | Win | 100 | 47 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on USC. The Trojans didn't play well last week. They're still a talented team though and they're going to be in an angry mood for this one. I expect them to take out their anger on an outmatched Colorado team. The Buffaloes have really struggled. After beating up on a bad Northern Colorado team, they only scored seven points against Texas A&M. Next, they lost 30-0 to Minnesota. (That looks even worse after the Gophers went on to lose as 30-point favorites against Bowling Green.) Then, last week, Colorado lost 35-13 against Arizona State. Those are all fairly tough opponents, but so is USC. Note that The Buffaloes are now 0-5 ATS the past five times that they were off a loss of 20 or more points. Meanwhile, the Trojans are 4-1-1 ATS the past six times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -9.5 range. They've dominated the Buffaloes for years and that continues Saturday afternoon. |
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10-02-21 | Tennessee v. Missouri -2.5 | 62-24 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MISSOURI. The Tigers are 0-2 on the road but 2-0 at home. Both wins came by double-digits. The Vols lost their only road game by 24 points. Of course, those results are largely based on the opponents that these teams were facing. Still, homefield figures to prove significant. The Tigers have won 11 of 15 here the past few seasons. The Vols are 4-6 on the road, during the same span. Note that this is the only time all season that the Vols will play two road games in two weeks. I believe that the beating put on them by the Gators will take a toll in this early road game. Note that the favorite is 5-1 ATS the past six in the series. Also, note that Tennessee is just 1-6 ATS (0-7 SU) its last seven as an underdog. The Vols won at Tennessee last year. However, the Tigers brought back considerably more from last year than did the Vols. Expect them to avenge that loss, covering the small number along the way. |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Bengals | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing JACKSONVILLE for the first half. The Jaguars are winless but they're getting better. I expect them to come out swinging. Urban Meyer was always a winner in college and you know he's dying for an opportunity to right the ship on National TV. Meyer had this to say about the team's week-to-week improvement: "First game, nothing. Second game, we made it through a half that we were playing pretty well. Third game, we're getting there. I'm looking for constant improvement. I'm looking for loyalty and faith in the locker room, which I have. That's never wavered. I'm not taking anything away from the Cardinals, we played well enough and if we don't make some mistakes, we could've won that game." The Bengals won by eight when these teams met last season. However, the score was 13-10, in favor of the Jags, when the teams went to the locker room. I feel that getting more than a field goal for the first half is generous and I'm grabbing the points. |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -3 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. Though I successfully backed them against Illinois, I'm not a big believer in this year's Cavaliers. Last week, they got hammered by Wake Forest. The Deacons have a good team this year but that result still showed that Virginia has a lot of work to do. That's b2b losses of 20 points. Things don't get any easier. Off a 69-0 victory, Miami is full of confidence. Having faced the likes of Alabama (and Michigan State) the Canes are battle tested. Miami won last year's meeting by five and won by eight the year before that. I see an even bigger margin of victory in this one. |
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09-27-21 | Eagles +4 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -106 | 155 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the home team has had recent success in this series, I feel that the value lies with the visitors in this one. It's early but both teams are dealing with some significant injuries. That said, I'm not sold on the Dallas defense and I like what I'm seeing from the Eagles. They crushed the Falcons and nearly beat the 49'ers. Note that they're 8-4 ATS the past 12 times that they played a game with a line ranging from +3.5 to +9.5 points. The Cowboys, who have been dismal as favorites since last year, have seen each of their first two games decided by a field goal. In what should be another close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
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09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers -3.5 | 30-28 | Loss | -100 | 107 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SF. I won with the Packers on Monday night. That was against the Lions though. Now, they play on a short week against a much tougher team. I expect them to struggle. The Packers were obviously better than they showed against the Saints in Week 1. However, that 38-3 beating did expose some weaknesses, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Now, they'll take on a stingy SF team, one which is already 2-0 and one which is fired up for its home opener. Last week, the 49ers held the Eagles to only 11 points. The favorite is 4-1 ATS the past five times that these teams faced each other, the home team winning each of the past four meeetings. The past two here at SF, games in 2019 and 2020, saw the 49'ers win by scores of 37-20 and 37-8. I expect another win and cover on Sunday night. |
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09-26-21 | Cardinals v. Jaguars +8 | 31-19 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. The Cards have certainly gotten off to the better start. That's led to them laying a big number here. For an early road game, against a hungry Jags team, I believe it'll prove to be too much. In fact, I won't be surprised to see Jacksonville break through and finally win one. Keep in mind that the Cards only won by one last game (34-33) and that they are 0-5 ATS the past five times that they were off a game where they scored 30 or more points. With big division games (Rams and SF) on deck, it should be easy to look past lowly Jacksonville. The Jags, on the other hand, are desperate for a victory; their full attention will be on the task at hand. The last meeting between these teams was decided by a field goal, a 17-14 win for the Cards. Look for this one to also prove much closer than many will be expecting. |
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09-26-21 | Falcons v. Giants -3 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -100 | 119 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on the NY GIANTS. Both these teams are 0-2. History tells us that 0-2 teams rarely make the playoffs. From 1990 to 2019, only 12% of 0-2 teams made the playoffs. Last season, 0-2 teams were 0-fer-11, in terms of making the playoffs. These teams were both among them. This year, with the addition of a 17th game and an expanded bracket, it's possible that an 0-2 team (or teams) will make it. That said, the Falcons know it probably won't be them. They played better than the final score indicated last week but still made mistakes and lost by 23 points. Their -49 point differential is the worst in the entire league. Knowing that the three teams ahead of them in the division are already a combined 5-1 figures to be disheartening. Playing in the NFC East, where every team already has a loss, the Giants have considerably more hope. Remember, Washington won the division with a 7-9 record last season. That extra optimism should serve them well here. Importantly, I believe that they match up very well against the Falcons. The Giants are averaging six yards per play, the Falcons are averaging 4.7 ypp. Note that Atlanta corner A.J. Terrell left the last game with a concussion, which is a big blow to the secondary. Homefield also works in New York's favor. Additionally, I like the fact that the Giants have had a couple of extra day's worth of rest and preparation time, due to playing on Thursday last week. With the Falcons just 4-13 ATS the past 17 times that they played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3, I'm laying the short number with the home team. |
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09-25-21 | California v. Washington -7 | Top | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I had this game circled when the schedule came out. I've wanted to play it since the line came out but have waited patiently for it to come down. The reality is, however, that I'm expecting a convincing double-digit win for the Huskies. This year's team is loaded, stronger than many realize; they got on track in a big way last week. That 52-3 beating of Arkansas State gives them plenty of confidence and positive momentum. The Bears' lone victory came last week against Sacramento State - and they gave up more than 400 passing yards in the process. The previous week, they gave up 271 yards on the ground. Indeed, this is a porous Cal defense and Washington will put up a big number. Considering that the Huskies have allowed 13 and three points in their two games, I don't believe that the Bears will be able to keep up. The Bears have won b2b closes one in the series. Tonight, their vastly superior defense making the difference, the Huskies avenge those losses in blowout fashion. |