Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-26-23 | Suns +6 v. Lakers | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
The Suns came out and took down the Warriors in game one on the road despite not having Beal available. While Beal's availability is still in question, the Suns should have enough fire to take down the Lakers. The Lakers will be a work in progress over the first part of the season. They have to adjust to James' playing time limitations and a roster full of new players. The loss of Jarred Vanderbilt to start the season is important to the Lakers' rotation. With Vanderbilt out, Prince has been put in a starting spot which weakens what could be a deep Lakers' bench. The Suns showed their own depth in the opener with 16 points off the bench from Gordon. Gordon will be a stalwart for the Suns' second unit and allow the team to thrive when either Durant or Booker is off the floor. The Suns also showed more toughness in the opener with Nurkic now at center. He earned a double-double on Tuesday night and helped to create space for Durant in the post. Word to the wise, jump on this line quickly. If Beal is cleared, this line will drop closer to one or two points. |
|||||||
10-25-23 | Mavs -160 v. Spurs | 126-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Dallas is far from perfect, but they're a team that can score on anyone. Their two stars are playing, which will stress the rest of a Spurs roster that was the NBA's worst defensive outfit a year ago. The Mavs have won seven of the last eight meetings (four straight in San Antonio) and with a small spread, take them to win again |
|||||||
06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 89-94 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The spread is pretty wide here, but after the last two games, where the Nuggets won by double digits on the road, I think it is warranted. The Nuggets came into this series as a heavy favorite and just a flat out better team. Miami has been overachieving all season and Erik Spoelstra h as been making the right adjustments, outcoaching everyone is his wake. But he met his match with Malone, who has been one step ahead of the Heat. First he used the Nugget's size to his advantage, and then when Miami adjusted, they went outside and punished them from three. The Nuggets also shut down the role players that killed the Celtics and let Butler and Adebayo do their thing. A championship is so close they can taste it, and they will take care of business in front of the home crowd. Take the Nuggets to cover. |
|||||||
06-09-23 | Nuggets -159 v. Heat | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets have dominated this series and they show no signs of slowing down in this one. Jokic remains the most dominant player on the planet and with Miami having no answers on either end for him, he's the perfect player for a road team to play through. Will Murray's absence is a slight concern, the Nuggets have been able to find plenty of scoring throughout the roster. The Heat continue to be cold from three-point range, especially front their backcourt, which won't serve them well in this one. Miami's offense has been brutal through the first three games and there's no doubt that Denver will run away with the game four win. Additionally, according to covers.com, Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. On the other hand, the Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home. |
|||||||
06-04-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Nuggets | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Expect Erik Spoelstra to go back to the zone he used in most of the Boston series and that will help slow down the Nuggets. That defensive gimmick will help a lot more in Game 2 when the Heat have their legs back since they have Friday and Saturday off. There's no doubt that going seven games against Boston had an effect on their performance on Thursday along with the altitude. Strus, Caleb Martin and Robinson combined for 2-for-23 in Game 1 and all three will bounce back in Game 2. Martin has been terrific in the postseason, averaging 13.5 points and shooting 44% from beyond the arc. But the biggest factor is Butler getting a couple of days off to rest his ankle and he will be looking to get to the line a lot more in this game. The Heat will push the Nuggets to the limit in Game 2 and will shoot a lot more than two free throws. |
|||||||
05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7 | 103-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm usually not about chalk and big numbers in this situation, but Miami just had one of the most heartbreaking losses in the history of the NBA playoffs. Not to mention that they nearly won a game where Butler and Adebayo's jump shots were M.I.A. Butler's performance has regressed in the last two games where he's starting to show some fatigue. He's getting no lift on his jumpers and drives and it shows where Boston had blocked his shot 10 times in this series. Boston has also found a way to slow down Adebayo with the length of Robert Williams and the experience of Al Horford. Martin, Max Strus, Vincent and Duncan Robinson are not enough to defeat a more athletic Boston team even without Malcolm Brogdon. Tatum will go bonkers at home in Game 7. |
|||||||
05-27-23 | Celtics -140 v. Heat | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With the series starting to trend back in Boston's direction, there's no doubt that the Celtics will be able to force a game seven. Beyond the depth advantages, this is a team that has shown playoff success on the road this postseason. For Miami, being without Vincent would be a massive issue, especially considering how strong he is on both ends. The last few games have seen Boston finding success again from three-point range and if that continues in this one, the Heat won't stand a chance. Additionally, Miami is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up loss for more than 10 points. For Boston, they are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Heat in Miami. |
|||||||
05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -150 | 113-111 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This series is over, for all intents and purposes, but I just can't see the Lakers getting swept. Veterans like James and Davis are too proud to let themselves get swept in front of Jack and the rest of their home crowd. The Nuggets are just a better team, and have been all season, and they'll make this interesting, but the Lakers will pull this one out down the stretch. The Nuggets are just 2-5 against the spread in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles. But look for a gentleman's sweep and for this thing to end in game 5 back in Denver. |
|||||||
05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | 102-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics are inexplicably three-point favorites in this one. What does Miami have to do to get some respect? I just don't see how you can favor the Celtics in this one, given that the Heat have not lost at home so far in the playoffs. The Celtics are the higher seed and the more talented team, but I have no confidence in their ability to close out a game in crunch time, especially against this Heat team, which has come up big time after time. The Celtics are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 meetings versus the Heat. The Celtics could possibly win this but it would be only by a bucket late. Take the Heat getting the points. |
|||||||
05-19-23 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I picked the Heat to cover in game 1 but I honestly did not expect them to actually win the game. Now they are 9 point underdogs and again, that feels like a lot. While I fully expect the Celtics to win in this game -- they have to or they are pretty much done. But Miami is not the type of team you blow out -- and 9 points is a lot. I just can't see the Celtics winning by double digits here. Miami won't shoot 52% from three again but they will play good enough defense and make enough big shots to keep this game close down the stretch. The Celtics will survive, but the Heat will cover. Take Miami getting the points. |
|||||||
05-17-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the third time in four years, the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are squaring off in the Eastern Conference finals. Miami won the first go around in 2020 while the Celtics took care of business last year. Boston has had a tendency to play loose at home in the playoffs, and coming off that historic game 7 win, I see them having a letdown here. Miami will be rested and ready to go, looking to steal one here. In the four meeting between the two this year, three were decided by less than the spread for this game. This spread seems too big, so take the Heat here getting the points. |
|||||||
05-11-23 | Celtics -130 v. 76ers | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In many sports, particularly the NBA, there has traditionally been a situation where a team has to get over that hump and beat their perennial rivals after many unsuccessful attempts in the past. All past champions have had to get over that hump, just go back over the years. For the Sixers, that hump has been the Celtics, which have owned them. Is this the series where they put that demon to rest? Maybe. But I just have to believe that the Celtics are too good and too proud to go out like that. Boston brings in Thursday and finds a way to win. Take Boston. |
|||||||
05-10-23 | Heat +3.5 v. Knicks | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Heat have been beasts against the spread, going 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. That includes all four games of this series. Also, the Heat are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings in New York. Likewise, the Knicks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest and 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games overall. I have to stick with the battle-tested Heat in this one to continue their streak of ATS wins. They have been here before and know how to win on the road. Now, I actually think the Knicks find a way to pull this game out, but it will be a slim margin and the Heat will cover. Take Miami here. |
|||||||
05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets are primed to get back into the win column as they return home and there's little doubt that they'll return to their games one and two form. Denver has been dominant at home this season and considering how strong their depth has been in those home games, that is sure to be a massive advantage in this one. They won't let Booker and Durant continue to beat them and with little help beyond those two on Phoenix, keeping pace will be difficult for the Suns. Additionally, Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games and are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams. |
|||||||
05-09-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -7 | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics have largely outplayed the Sixers in this series, yet here we are, tied at 2 games apiece. The series shifts back to Boston and after a bitter, bitter defeat on Sunday afternoon in game 4, the Celtics will come out fired up and focused. They went from taking complete control of this series and having a chance to close it out to now facing a critical game where a loss would result in an elimination game in Philly. After losing game 5 at home to the Bucks in the second round last year, and needing to win games 6 and 7 to advance, I can't see history repeating itself here. Take the Celtics here. |
|||||||
05-08-23 | Warriors +3 v. Lakers | 101-104 | Push | 0 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors might not win this game outright but they will find a way to be in it going into the final seconds. Curry continues to be elite but he'll find a way to get the supporting cast far more involved in this one. Steve Kerr did a great job after Davis' game-one dominance to make adjustments and there's no doubt that he'll be able to find a way to disrupt him again in game four. The supporting cast showed up for the Lakers in game three but given their own inconsistencies, it'll be expected to see a drop-off, especially with confidence high. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up loss. |
|||||||
05-08-23 | Knicks v. Heat -180 | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This series is over, I believe. The Heat are just the better team right now and they have mostly dominated this series. The one game the Knicks won, it was home in a must-win game and they still barely won. I just don't see the Knicks being able to beat the Heat in Miami. The Knicks will keep it close because they play good defense and because this is another must-win game. But unlike Game 2 at Madison Square Garden, they won't be able to out Game 4 at the Kaseya Center in Miami. |
|||||||
05-07-23 | Celtics -135 v. 76ers | 115-116 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics lost focus in game 1 in a game they thought they were going to win easily. We saw a different, more focused team in games 2 and 3. The fact of the matter is, the Celtics are the superior team. They tend to get upset at home because they lose focus, but on the road, as we have seen the past few years, they really lock in and get focused and a focused Celtics team is hard to beat. This will be another close game but I like the Celtics to execute down the stretch as they just have too many weapons that can hurt you with a big shot. Take the Celtics. |
|||||||
05-06-23 | Knicks v. Heat -172 | 86-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The best players on both of these teams are listed as questionable, so, obviously, if one or both, are out, that could change things dramatically. But I'm going to assume both Brunson and Butler play. and they are going to be close to full strength. That said, I have to give the Heat the advantage here. This will be a close game, as both teams play excellent defense and tend to keep games close. But, given that the Heat almost won in NYC without Butler, I like them to take care of business in their first game at home. Take the Heat. |
|||||||
05-05-23 | Nuggets +4.5 v. Suns | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver might be hitting the road but they have a great chance to make it a 3-0 series lead and will at least keep it close in this one. They have far too much depth for Phoenix to run away with the game, even at home. Jokic and Murray continue to be one of the best duos in the league and their ability to dictate the game and generate efficient offense, will keep them within a possession without a doubt. Expect the offensive and defensive glass to be key as well, especially considering how strong the Nuggets have looked in that department. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Friday games and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up win. The Suns, on the other hand, are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference semifinals and are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings against Denver. |
|||||||
05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The idea of the Lakers winning two in a row in such a short time frame, at the Chase Center, doesn't add up, as the Warriors will come away with the win to even the series. The Lakers had a great gameplan in using Lebron in unique ways but the Warriors now have that tape and there's no doubt that the defense will be better prepared. The frontcourt mismatch was expected to land in the Lakers' favor but with the way Looney has been playing, there's no doubt both teams have the ability to hit the offensive and defensive glass. Expect Golden State's depth to be too much for LA in this one. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games, while the Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss. |
|||||||
05-02-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -180 | 117-112 | Loss | -180 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State may only have one day off since their impressive win over the Kings but their ability to build off of that momentum will be crucial to them grabbing the win. Curry and Thompson have massive matchup advantages, while Looney has impressed over the last few weeks and casts some doubt over how much Davis might be able to dominate the frontcourt for the Lakers. This will be a close one but the perimeter shooting for Golden State will prove to be a massive difference in this one. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last ten home games against a team with a losing road record. |
|||||||
05-02-23 | Heat v. Knicks -5.5 | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jimmy Butler injury looms large and given how much he has met to this team, his absence would be too much to overcome for this team. The Heat have struggled on the road overall this season and grabbing a win for the second-straight night in Madison Square Garden will be asking too much. For the Knicks, they have a few injuries of their own that they're worrying about but with their scoring depth at hand, finding success on the offensive end will extend this game and make things difficult for Miami to keep pace. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two sides. |
|||||||
05-01-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -175 | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Murray forged his playoff reputation in the 2020 Orlando bubble with multiple 50-point games to lead Denver to the Western Conference finals, and this postseason, his first since that run three years ago, he has again become the team's catalyst. He had 34 points -- including six 3-pointers -- to spark the Nuggets' relatively easy win on Saturday night. He has scored 34 or more points in half of Denver's six playoff games this year, taking a lot of the offensive burden off Jokic, who had to carry the team in two short playoff runs in each of the two previous postseason trips. While some might be surprised at how the Nuggets manhandled the Suns on Saturday night, Murray is not. The Suns also have to figure out a way to stop Murray. Contesting shots wasn't a problem in Game 1, so one strategy will be to deny him the ball as much as possible. The Nuggets have been stellar at home, posting a 34-7 record there during the regular season. |
|||||||
05-01-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -9 | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics will roll in Monday's matchup and with the advantages across the board, there's no doubt that they'll start this series strong. Being without Embiid is going to be too much for the 76ers to overcome, on both ends of the court. The 76ers will match the scoring to keep pace with Tatum and Brown, let alone one of the deepest backcourts in the league. Their frontcourt will also have the advantage against Paul Reed. Add in a road game and have to shake some rust off, and it makes sense that this one is determined to be a double-digit win for Boston. Additionally, according to covers.com, Boston is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning straight-up record, are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings against the 76ers in Boston, and is 5-0 ATS against the 76ers in the last five meetings. |
|||||||
04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks -190 | 108-101 | Loss | -190 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re looking at a Miami team that completely flipped the script based on the regular season. The Heat were dead last in scoring offense in the regular season but they lead the postseason field in that department heading into this game. Miami was devastating from beyond the arc against the Bucks but they are facing a Knicks team that turned back the clock defensively in the opening round. New York turned games into rock fights and slowed things down to a ridiculously snail-like pace. The Knicks held the Cavaliers to 44.2% shooting from the floor and 32.7% from three-point range in the opening round. Butler will need more help in this series if the Heat hope to advance. Give the advantage to the Knicks as they prevail in front of an amped-up crowd. |
|||||||
04-29-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -140 | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phoenix was clicking on all cylinders offensively in the opening round against the Clippers but they may find a little stiffer challenge here against the Nuggets. The Suns were extremely proficient from the perimeter against LA but the Nuggets held Minnesota to 34.8% shooting from beyond the arc in the series. Booker was electric in the first round but he will have to step up and put those kinds of numbers up again. How the Suns defend Jokic and his versatility is going to be a critical factor in this series. Phoenix went 17-24 on the road this season in the regular season so their two road wins over the Clippers were a bit of a surprise. Meanwhile, Denver was 34-7 at home in the regular season and 3-0 in the postseason. The altitude is a major factor and that carries the Nuggets to a hard-fought win in Game 1. |
|||||||
04-28-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -200 | 85-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies had the second best record in the West while the Lakers needed a late run to even make the play-in tournament. Yet, it seems like most people are favoring the Lakers. Maybe they are right as the Lakers are up 3-2 and have a chance to close it out at home. I think, ultimately, they get it done here. I just cannot see James letting this series go back to Memphis with an opportunity to end it in LA. Also, the Grizzlies are 0-4 against the spread in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles and 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 meetings with the Lakers overall. Take the Lakers here. |
|||||||
04-28-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I just don't think the Kings are ready to go down, and they certainly won't go down without a fight. They showed that they can go toe to toe with the Warriors in the Chase Center, as they should have won game 4 but blew it late. That near miss will be top of mind Friday night. Of the five games played thus far, three of them have been decided by less than 7 points and another has been decided by 8 points. So these games have pretty much all been close, with all going down to the wire. Fox should be ready to go and I like the Kings to keep it close enough to cover. Take the Kings getting the points. |
|||||||
04-27-23 | Celtics v. Hawks +7 | 128-120 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks are riding a wave of momentum from the game five win and even if they don't win game six, they have all the tools and confidence to take it to within one possession. Not only are they at home but they also welcome Murray into the fold as well, which will give them plenty of offensive options beyond just Young. The Celtics have been solid but with the frontcourt struggling, the Hawks have been able to dominate on the offensive and defensive glass, which is a trend bound to continue in this close one. Additionally, the Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four Thursday games. |
|||||||
04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11.5 | 128-126 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After Monday's disheartening and shocking loss, I fully expect to see an angry, focused Bucks team. They have no choice, because a loss ends their season -- and that would be embarrassing as they are the top seed and had the best record in the NBA. Giannis was great on Monday and that's a great sign. There is no way he lets his team lose at home. Middleton and Holiday were subpar and you can bet that Giannis will light a fire under them and they will bounce back with big games at home. This one has all the earmarks of a Milwaukee blowout, as Miami focuses on the game 6 closeout at home. Take the Bucks here giving up the points. |
|||||||
04-26-23 | Lakers +4.5 v. Grizzlies | 99-116 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Grizzlies might be at home but the Lakers have already shown that they can muster up a performance strong enough to win on the road. Add in Lebron and Anthony Davis dominating on both ends and it's asking far too much of the Grizzlies to match that expected output. Morant is elite but without a ton of help in the scoring department, it's difficult to see an avenue where they keep pace with the Lakers. Add in injuries to the frontcourt and it's clear they are missing that advantage on the offensive and defensive glass. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Lakers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams. |
|||||||
04-25-23 | Clippers v. Suns -12 | 130-136 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What exactly do the Clippers have left to play for? With Kawhi Leonard out and Paul George still sidelined, LA doesn't have a fighter's chance of advancing. The motivation to keep the score respectable isn't there, even in a closeout game. Russell Westbrook's hustle will go unappreciated if he's asked to carry too much of the offensive load, which isn't his forte. Phoenix has been on its A-game since dropping game one, beating Los Angeles inside-out. In game four, the Suns scored 48 points in the paint and outrebounded the Clippers 49-33 with 14 offensive rebounds. They also hit 9 of 22 shots from three (40.9%). While this is a large spread, I believe it's just. The Clippers, 5-23 ATS in their last 28 games playing on two days of rest, aren't suited for a battle in the valley on Tuesday. If this game's even close for more than a quarter, I'll be surprised. The Suns have the killer instinct required to put away a down and desperate Clippers team. |
|||||||
04-25-23 | Wolves +10 v. Nuggets | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota won't win this game but this series has shown that they'll at least be able to keep thing interesting and close in this game four showdown. The big men on Minnesota have had their way the last few games and their ability to improve this group's rebounding on both ends is sure to help. Anthony Edwards is the top scorer in this game and his ability to be explosive gives them another dimension towards keeping things close. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Timberwolves are 29-7 ATS in the last 33 meetings in Denver. |
|||||||
04-24-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -190 | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lakers are excelling on defense in this series, anchored by Davis. Los Angeles is giving up only 106.0 points per 100 possessions to Memphis through three games, and the Lakers lead the playoffs with 8.7 blocked shots per game. The Lakers are also securing almost 73% of available defensive rebounds and yielding only 19.0 free throw attempts per game. Los Angeles is allowing 42.4% shooting from the field and 33.3% from 3-point range, and the Lakers have been operating at a high level on defense for an extended period. Los Angeles was a top-five defensive team in the NBA after the All-Star break, giving up only 1.11 points per possession, and the Lakers led the league in free throw prevention (20.8 attempts per game) during the regular season. In addition, the Lakers finished No. 2 in the NBA in 3-point defense (34.4%) in 2022-23, with top-10 marks in defensive rebound rate (72.3%) and field goal percentage allowed (46.9%) for the season. |
|||||||
04-23-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +4 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The big game for Denver was game 3 to essentially put the Timberwolves away. Since an 0-3 deficit is virtually a death knell for a team, Denver may take the foot off the gas a bit here while Minnesota will be focused on not being swept and getting at least one win. Make no mistake Denver will end this in 5 back in Denver, but Minnesota finds a way to win here at home on Sunday night. Also, the Timberwolves are 18-8 against the spread in their last 26 Sunday games. Take the Timberwolves here getting the points. |
|||||||
04-23-23 | Celtics -5.5 v. Hawks | 129-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a great opportunity to lean heavily on a Celtics team that has a huge talent edge over the Hawks. Boston spent far too much of game three trying to outscore the Hawks rather than dig in defensively. Atlanta dominated the glass against what appeared to be a disinterested Boston front line. Boston failed to record a blocked shot for the first time in the series and the league's fifth-best defensive unit allowed Atlanta to shoot 56%. Look for Boston to make the necessary adjustments in game four to gain back control against an Atlanta team that was given free rein to drive to the basket for easy buckets in game three. I expect to see a heavy dose of Celtics defense in game three and a comfortable Boston win. |
|||||||
04-22-23 | 76ers -125 v. Nets | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nets blew their best opportunity to make a series of things as they had the 76ers on the ropes only to let it slip away. After all, Embiid was floundering, Harden was ejected and they led by six after three quarters before falling apart. That 11-1 game-ending run that Brooklyn gave up was the continuation of a trend that we saw all too often in the regular season from the Nets. Philadelphia showed their grit with their tough play down the stretch as Maxey willed them to rally down the stretch, scoring 10 of his points in the fourth quarter. That loss has to deflate the Nets a bit and it’s impossible to back a team that is 0-7 against their opponent this season. Give this one to the 76ers as they close out the series and advance to the second round. |
|||||||
04-21-23 | Nuggets -130 v. Wolves | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets have won three straight games and four of their last five games against the Timberwolves. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 113 points per game in their last three games while making 50 percent of their shots. They rebounded the ball aggressively during that span and averaged more than 11 offensive boards per game, so expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring opportunities. The Timberwolves have struggled defensively this season and they’re giving up more than 114 points per game at home, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Nuggets in this game. The Timberwolves have lost three of their last four games. They struggled offensively during that stretch, scoring less than 105 points per game. Their rebounding also dropped off, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring opportunities against the Nuggets. They’ve also been careless with the ball at home, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Nuggets, who average more than seven steals per game. The Nuggets are playing very well defensively, holding opponents under 100 points per game in their last three games, and won’t have trouble keeping Minnesota’s offense in check. Go with Denver to cover the spread. |
|||||||
04-21-23 | Cavs v. Knicks -115 | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New York Knicks are led by Tom Thibodeau, who has a career 26-37 playoff record. Although the record may not seem overly impressive, that's 63 games of playoff experience and eight appearances under his belt. On the other side, the playoffs are still relatively fresh territory for Cleveland Cavaliers head coach JB Bickerstaff. Bickerstaff's only other head coaching playoff experience was in 2016, when his Houston Rockets lost to the Warriors in five games in the first round. Bickerstaff lost two play-in tournament games last season with the Cavs and overall is 0-3 in road playoff games in his career. Donovan Mitchell has playoff experience, but this will still be a tough spot for young Cavs teams entering Madison Square Garden. Cleveland was 3-13 straight up as a road underdog this season, and I don't see that translating over well in their first road playoff test here. |
|||||||
04-20-23 | Suns -150 v. Clippers | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns swept a pair of road games against the Clippers this season and they'll grab the win in this one as well. Injuries will be the difference between the two sides, especially as the Clippers continue to be without George. The Suns core continues to get more and more time together and considering they have two of the most electric scorers in the league at their disposal, that is likely to help them lead the way. Add in plenty of length on the perimeter and size in the frontcourt, and there isn't much reason to think that they can't dominate both ends. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Suns are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the two in LA and are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. |
|||||||
04-20-23 | Kings +6 v. Warriors | 97-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Draymond Green just can't keep his emotions in check and that has cost the Warriors throughout his career, as he has been absent before from big games like this one because of his actions on the court. I think the Warriors will hold on here for the win, just because I have complete faith in Steph Curry to not let his team down. Plus, the Warriors are like night and day when playing at home and on the road. They are great at home and awful on the road. The home crowd here will push them to a win, but the scrappy Kings will cover. Take Sacramento getting the points. |
|||||||
04-19-23 | Heat v. Bucks -6 | 122-138 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With all eyes glued to the status of Giannis, it's actually the injury woes for Miami that will make this game fall in Milwaukee's favor. The Heat will be without their top perimeter threat in Herro and could be without one of their most experienced backcourt pieces in Lowry. For the Bucks, the supporting cast isn't going to be a shocked in Wednesday's showdown to have carry much more of workload, though if Giannis can go, that'll only increase their likelihood to win with ease anyway. The Bucks were one of the best teams in the league at home, while Miami was one of the worst road teams of the playoff teams, which will further ensure things swing back into Milwaukee's favor in this one. |
|||||||
04-18-23 | Knicks +6 v. Cavs | 90-107 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With how New York has performed this season in this matchup, there's no reason to think that they won't at least keep things competitive in this one. Their balance in the frontcourt and backcourt is crucial, especially when compared to Cleveland's struggles last game. New York's depth seems to be an advantage but having to win two games in a row overall might be too much to ask. Expect the Knicks to focus on the defensive end and slowing the game down, which might not serve them well in the result but will allow them to stay right within striking distance as the game comes to a close. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Knicks are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS win, while also sitting 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with Cleveland overall and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Cleveland. |
|||||||
04-18-23 | Hawks v. Celtics -10 | 106-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Until they got sloppy in the second half, the Celtics' offense was able to get whatever they wanted. Brown and Tatum's drives to the basket went unchallenged and the Celtics consistently found themselves with open looks from long range. Atlanta's inability to consistently shoot the three will ultimately do them in against a Celtics team that shoots the 3pt shot at the second-highest rate in the NBA. The Hawks, for their part, shoot the highest percentage of two-point shots in the NBA. Unfortunately for Atlanta, Boston's Al Horford, and Rob Williams III consistently met players at the rim and altered their shots on Saturday. The pair combined for three of Boston's seven shot blocks in the game. Look for Boston to establish both Brown and Tatum going to the basket, which will again open up their shooting from long range. |
|||||||
04-17-23 | Nets v. 76ers -10 | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nets simply don't have the star power to keep up with this 76ers team, especially not on the road. They have some fantastic players, but nobody on that team is going to take over a game the way that Joel Embiid or James Harden can. Playing on the road against a 76ers team that's superb at home, the Nets don't stand a chance. We've seen them fall to Philly five times already between the regular season and game one, and this game should go the same way. The 76ers control the game and take a 2-0 lead in the series. |
|||||||
04-16-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets -7.5 | 80-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota has at least sharpened their edge as they have played twice since the end of the regular season. That is a double-edged sword as it has helped keep the rust off but it has added extra wear and tear to key players in the rotation. Denver was on cruise control over the final month or so of the season as they held the advantage for both the Northwest Division and the top spot in the Western Conference. That gave the Nuggets the ability to rest some of their key players, like two-time reigning MVP Jokic, and prepare for the postseason run. Denver was a sparkling 34-7 at home this season while the Timberwolves were 20-21 as the road team on the year. Give the Nuggets the upper hand in this contest as the rest factor works in their favor. |
|||||||
04-16-23 | Heat v. Bucks -9 | 130-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It will be interesting to see how the Heat chooses to defend Antetonkoumnpo. They could defend him with Adebayo but that might force the team's best rebounder to the bench with foul trouble. Butler, arguably the Heat's best defender, doesn't have the length to cover the Greek Freak and I'm not sure Spoelstra will want to wear out his best offensive player by covering Antetonkoumnpo all night. With that in mind, I like the Bucks to dominate the first game. Milwaukee exposed the Heat's other defenders this season on the perimeter, nailing over 18 3pt field goals per matchup. Miami will adjust but that adjustment will likely come after a substantial game-one loss. This will be the first time all season that the Heat will face the Bucks at full strength and the combination of Antetonkoumnpo and Middleton will be too much for them. Don't discount the ability of Holiday to take his man in the paint for easy buckets as well. Beyond Adebayo and Butler, the Heat do not possess quality man-to-man defenders. |
|||||||
04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings -110 | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game is basically a pick 'em, with the Kings installed as only a 1 point favorite. So, I really can't see the Kings, who have not been in the playoffs since 2006, not winning this first game. The fans, not having had a playoff game in their building in 17 years, will be raucous, particularly since it is against their biggest rival, the Warriors. They will like nothing more than to see the Kings "light the beam" on top of the Golden 1 Center. These teams know each other, so there won't be any surprises, and they play similar styles, so I have to go with the home team. Take the Kings to cover the spread. |
|||||||
04-15-23 | Hawks v. Celtics -9.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics provide several difficult matchups for a Hawks' team that struggles against athletic wings. Both Tatum and Brown will be able to get what they want both going to the rim and on the perimeter and that will force the Hawks to send help to both matchups. This will create tons of good looks from long range for a Celtics team that has thrived on the 3pt shot. The Celtics averaged over 22 3pt field goals per game against Atlanta this season, shooting over 46%, which indicates the Hawks' difficulty with keeping up with the Celtics' inside-out offense. Young will get his points in this series but Boston is one of the few teams in the NBA that can match up multiple players, Marcus Smart and White, to make him work for those points. Murray was not as effective against the Celtics this year thanks to Boston's length at the wing position. Williams III can neutralize Capella on the glass as well and the Hawks simply don't have the depth to match Boston. |
|||||||
04-09-23 | Clippers -12.5 v. Suns | 119-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one is an absolute no brainer. As it stands right now, the Suns look like they are going to rest all of their star players - Durant, Paul, Booker and Ayton. So, expect a lot of big minutes from bench players. The Clippers should be playing everyone, because they will need this to lock down a top 6 seed in the West and avoid the play-in. The Lakers and Warriors are both playing at the same time. There is some question as to whether teams will avoid the fifth seed to avoid the Suns, but no one wants to be 7th either. I love the Clippers here. Take the Clippers to win and cover. |
|||||||
04-08-23 | Blazers v. Clippers -16.5 | 125-136 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles has covered the spread in six straight home games against Portland, and I do not expect that trend to end on Saturday afternoon. The Trail Blazers enter this game with no motivation, as they are resting almost all of their key players and are already eliminated from playoff contention. Los Angeles is as motivated as any team in the NBA, as it needs a win to avoid the play-in tournament. The Clippers have won 11 of the last 12 meetings between these teams and should continue their dominance on Saturday. Portland has only picked up one win in its last eight games and is not playing competitive basketball without Lillard. |
|||||||
04-08-23 | Nuggets v. Jazz +6.5 | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Throw out all the stats and trends for this game, because you are going to see two teams playing deep bench players. It will basically be like a summer league game. So, any trends I might be able to dig up would not be relevant as they don't pertain to the players who are going to be out on the court for this one. So, I'm going to defer here to the home team. The Jazz are in front of their home fans, the ones that show up for this meaningless game, that is, and that should be enough to push them to a win. Take the Jazz here to win and cover. |
|||||||
04-07-23 | Bulls v. Mavs -8.5 | 115-112 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I don't love backing the Mavs, but it's now or never for them. With Dallas still competing for a play-in spot and the Bulls' postseason hopes already decided, the Mavericks have a strong advantage. Expect to see the Bulls give a lot of minutes and opportunities to players outside of their big three. I expect Chicago to play hard, but they have dropped two straight games by double-digits, and with Dallas' season on the line, I expect them to pull away for a big win. |
|||||||
04-07-23 | Raptors +1 v. Celtics | 102-121 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Only one of the two teams in this matchup has anything to gain from a win. Toronto will trot out their regular lineup in this one while I expect the Celtics to rest more than at least one of their key players. Toronto has a lot to gain by potentially catching the Hawks in the standings. The Raptors are just 14-26 on the road this season but a far more respectable 26-14 at home. Look for Toronto to control the pace and take advantage of a depleted Celtics roster. |
|||||||
04-06-23 | Thunder -6.5 v. Jazz | 114-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have struggled of late and that is why we enter the final days of the season with one team fighting to hang on for the final playoff spot in the West and the other fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive. Injury issues and the trades that Utah made at the deadline may have bolstered their chances for the future but made things tougher for making the postseason. Oklahoma City is at as close to full strength as they have been in the last couple of months here and they have to be motivated. The Thunder took the last two meetings between the teams last month, both at home: they make it three straight and eliminate the Jazz from playoff contention, with a win here. |
|||||||
04-06-23 | Heat v. 76ers -145 | 129-101 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Philadelphia has been excellent at home of late, winning five of its last six games. The 76ers have gone 29-11 in their 40 home games overall this season, and Miami has only covered the spread once in its last six road games. The Heat have not been in their best form overall, covering the spread once in their last five contests. They are on the road for the second straight game and do not have the firepower to keep pace with Philadelphia. That was on full display when these teams met last month, as the 76ers rolled to a 119-96 win. |
|||||||
04-04-23 | Nuggets -9 v. Rockets | 103-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets have won five of their last seven games and two of their last three road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 112 points per game on the road. They do a good job finding the open man and they were very aggressive on the offensive glass in their last three games, which will give them more scoring chances. They also cut back on their turnovers in their last three games and won’t give the Rockets a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Rockets aren’t very good defensively and gave up more than 120 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Nuggets in this game. The Rockets have lost eight of their last nine games and three of their last four home games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 114 points per game in their last three games. Their ball movement isn’t very good, but they’ve been attacking the offensive glass relentlessly in recent games, so expect them to get extra-scoring chances. They have been very careless with the ball, even at home, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Nuggets, who averaged more than eight steals per game in their last three games. The Nuggets are playing very well defensively, holding their last three opponents under 107 points per game, and won’t have trouble keeping Houston’s offense in check. Go with Denver to cover the spread. |
|||||||
04-04-23 | Celtics +2 v. 76ers | 101-103 | Push | 0 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Boston Celtics take on Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers in Eastern Conference play today. The 76ers are 8-6 against the rest of their division. Philadelphia averages 115.1 points while outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per game. The Celtics are 9-4 in division play. Boston is second in the Eastern Conference with 35.6 defensive rebounds per game led by Jayson Tatum averaging 7.8. The teams meet for the fourth time this season. The Celtics won 110-107 in the last matchup on Feb. 26. Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 26 points, and Embiid led the 76ers with 41 points. |
|||||||
04-02-23 | 76ers v. Bucks -5 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee lost to Boston on Thursday, but that may be good news for Bucks fans, as this team has not lost back-to-back games since January 12-14. They have been consistently the best team in the NBA over the last 10 weeks, and that is bad news for a 76ers team that enters this game as losers of their last three games on the road. The Milwaukee defense has been struggling of late, but they are averaging 124.8 points per game over their last five, and Philadelphia simply does not take enough shots to take advantage of the defensive lapses of the Bucks. Philadelphia has won the last two meetings between these teams, including earning a three-point victory over Milwaukee on March 4. Look for the Bucks to get a little revenge. |
|||||||
04-02-23 | Lakers -11 v. Rockets | 134-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles is currently 7th in the Western Conference playoff standings and would take part in the play-in part of the postseason but is within 1 ½ games of sixth place which would mean they would not have to take part in the play-in. At the same time, Los Angeles is only 1 ½ games in front of the 10th and final spot for postseason qualification in the West. Therefore, the Lakers have far more incentive to win than Houston, which has been eliminated from playoff contention and is last in the Western Conference. Houston's offense and defense has struggled all season as the Rockets are next to last in scoring and second from last in points allowed. Los Angeles has covered the spread in four of its last five, while Houston has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five. |
|||||||
04-01-23 | Mavs +1.5 v. Heat | 122-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is not in jeopardy of missing the playoffs, like Dallas is, and has several key injury designations heading into this pivotal matchup. Three Heat players, Nikola Jovic (back), Kyle Lowry (knee), and Bam Adebayo (hip), are hurt and questionable to play. Only Frank Ntilikina (knee) is questionable to play for Dallas. The betting trends also suggest the Mavericks are the team to have faith in. The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games playing on two days' rest. Taking all of this into account, including Dallas' dominant showing versus Miami earlier this season, I'll bet on the Mavs. |
|||||||
03-31-23 | Nuggets +9.5 v. Suns | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Thursday’s games have been excluded from the analysis, and the 51-24 Denver Nuggets hosted the New Orleans Pelicans, searching for their fifth consecutive victory. Over their previous four showings, the Nuggets have beaten the Brooklyn Nets 108-102, Washington Wizards 118-104, Milwaukee Bucks 129-106, and Philadelphia 76ers 116-111. Last Monday, Nikola Jokic posted a triple-double of 25 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists to lift his team over the 76ers, who missed both Joel Embiid and James Harden. The Nuggets shot 50.6% from the field and posted a terrific 34/12 assist-to-turnover ratio. |
|||||||
03-31-23 | Hawks v. Nets | 107-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Hawks have won two of their last three games including a home win against the Cavaliers on Tuesday. The Brooklyn Nets have been hit or miss recently. They have dropped six of their last eight games including disappointing losses against the Kings and Magic. They only covered twice in that eight-game span. The Hawks continue to dazzle offensively, averaging a remarkable 127 points in their last five games. Atlanta is hot from three-point range where they have connected on 38.6% of their threes in their last three games. This is key as the Nets give up plenty of threes, ranking 25th in the NBA in three-point defense. The Nets have not been reliable at home, going 1-4 in their last five home games, covering just once. |
|||||||
03-31-23 | Thunder -130 v. Pacers | 117-121 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder have won four of their last seven games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 119 points per game in their last three games. They’ve taken advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making over 80 percent of their free throws. They rebound the ball well and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, grabbing more than 11 offensive rebounds per game on the road, which will give them more scoring chances. They also cut back on their turnovers in recent games, and won’t give the Pacers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Pacers have one of the worst defenses in the league and they’re playing worse at the moment, giving up more than 135 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Thunder in this game. The Pacers have lost six of their last seven games and three straight home games. Despite their slump, they are playing well offensively, scoring more than 120 points per game in their last three games. Their rebounding dropped off in their last three games, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances against the Thunder. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Thunder, who more than 10 steals per game in their last three games. Even though the Thunder have struggled defensively on the road, they played well in their last two road games and won’t have trouble keeping Indiana’s offense in check. |
|||||||
03-27-23 | Bulls +4.5 v. Clippers | 112-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls have been red hot lately, going 7-2 over their last nine and have gone 4-1 ATS over their last five, and are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games. Chicago is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams and is 4-1 ATS in the five meetings between these teams in Los Angeles. Chicago is playing on back-to-back nights which would seem to give the Clippers a big edge. However, this team is not as good without Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard is battling an injury as well. The Bulls should win this game outright, but look for them to cover the spread regardless. |
|||||||
03-27-23 | Suns -6.5 v. Jazz | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Utah Jazz (35-39) and Phoenix Suns (39-35) have a couple of things in common heading into the home stretch of the season. Both teams are still in the thick of it when it comes to the postseason. And both are trying to make do without key players. And like the Suns did Saturday night against Philadelphia, the Jazz come into Monday's matchup in Salt Lake City hoping to break a three-game losing streak. Utah came close to finding a way to win in Sacramento on Saturday despite missing its three leading scorers: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton. Consider that the Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Utah while the Jazz are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. |
|||||||
03-26-23 | Nets v. Magic -135 | 106-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brooklyn is playing the second game of a back-to-back here and their third game in four nights. The Nets have a bit of a depleted roster after dealing away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving ahead of the trade deadline. While the pieces the Nets got in return are solid players, they were secondary pieces on their previous teams. Dinwiddie was playing second fiddle to Luka Doncic in Dallas while Bridges and Johnson were on a Phoenix team with Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. There is no star player to lean on in crunch time for the Nets, which we saw was a problem in the loss to Cleveland Thursday. Orlando has hung around the playoff picture and have won three of their last four. The Magic has developed a decent rotation to work with and they have home court, along with a rest advantage. Give Orlando the edge in this contest. |
|||||||
03-25-23 | Bucks v. Nuggets -140 | 106-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While this game is not necessarily critical to either team with both in a great position to earn the #1 seed in their respective conferences, the Nuggets would appear to have more motivation. Denver comes in well-rested after a recent road trip and the healthier of the two teams. Milwaukee is in the second game of a four-game trip, the final road trip of the season. The Bucks come in after playing in Utah on Friday night and, while they have been excellent this season in back-to-backs with a 9-1 record, staying healthy here will be more of a premium than getting the win. Denver, meanwhile, is 30-6 at home and 11 games over .500 at home ATS. Denver has won three out of its last four games after suffering through a four-game losing streak. The Nuggets are also 3-1 ATS in that time. |
|||||||
03-24-23 | Rockets v. Grizzlies -13 | 114-151 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is all about identifying value as these teams get set to meet for the second game in a row. Houston covered as a 12-point underdog on Wednesday, so many bettors are going to be surprised that the line is 1.5 points larger on Friday. However, Memphis was playing without Brooks in the first matchup and Morant was playing for the first time in weeks. Brooks will return from his one-game suspension on Friday, and Morant should be in better form after knocking off the rust. The Grizzlies have won 10 straight home games and have won eight of the last nine meetings between these teams. |
|||||||
03-23-23 | Cavs -165 v. Nets | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These teams have trended in different directions of late with Cleveland taking seven of their last nine games while the Nets have dropped four straight. Brooklyn made a pair of massive deals at the trade deadline, sending Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to Phoenix and Dallas, respectively. While Bridges, Johnson and Dinwiddie are good players, it takes time to incorporate new pieces into the rotation, which is made tougher when a player like Simmons is out of the mix. Brooklyn has had to try and rely on getting production from lesser pieces in an effort to remain competitive. That’s proved problematic as they entered Wednesday just half a game ahead of the Heat to avoid the play-in tournament. Cleveland is healthy and they just showed that they can handle the Nets in their own building. Take the Cavaliers here to sweep the two-game set. |
|||||||
03-22-23 | Rockets +13 v. Grizzlies | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's hard to feel great about betting on the Rockets, but Houston is playing .500 ball over its last 10 games, and none of the previous four losses have been by more than 13 points. Memphis is a far better team, but Houston has not stopped playing hard, and I expect this to be a bit of a distracting night with Ja Morant back, and Dillion Brooks suspended. The Grizzlies will win this game, but I would not lay more than 10 points on the spread in this spot, regardless of how good they have been at home. Memphis will also face Houston again on Friday, so I would not be shocked to see a letdown here. |
|||||||
03-21-23 | Spurs v. Pelicans -13 | 84-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans is in the thick of the playoff race while San Antonio is trying to lose games to try and get the first overall pick and turn their franchise around, which is why I like the Pelicans here to win and cover the large spread. Both New Orleans and the Spurs have struggled against the spread this season but San Antonio is 30-41 ATS which is third worst and as a road underdog, the Spurs are 11-22. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are 12-12 ATS which is much better than their overall ATS record. As well, this season, New Orleans is 3-0 against San Antonio with the average margin of victory being 15.3 PPG. The Pelicans' offense should have a field day against this Spurs defense which is arguably the worst in the NBA. |
|||||||
03-21-23 | Cavs -165 v. Nets | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brooklyn's having offensive issues and going up against the NBA's top defense. I know that Cleveland isn't the same on the road, but that sounds like a recipe for disaster. The Nets are reeling right now in general, and this is a tight spread against a tough team that's playing well. At this point of the season, Cleveland is better on both ends of the floor, and even if Jarrett Allen doesn't play that shouldn't change the outcome of this game. Take the Cavaliers on the spread while it's still only two points. |
|||||||
03-20-23 | Warriors -11 v. Rockets | 121-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors come in slumping but the undisciplined Rockets should be just what the doctor ordered for them on Monday night. Golden State should feast on Houston's struggles to cover the perimeter and will be happy to play this game at an uptempo pace thanks to what should be a bevy of turnovers between the two teams. I am confident that the Warriors will see a major bounce-back game from the Splash Brothers on Monday night and pull away quickly from the hapless Rockets. Golden State is 9-1 in the last ten meetings with Houston and, with ten games left on the schedule, this is a must-win for the defending champs. The Rockets are also just 2-9 in the second game of back-to-back games this season. |
|||||||
03-20-23 | Wolves v. Knicks -8 | 140-134 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks have been phenomenal lately, and even appear to have solved their issues at home. They've won eight of 10 at home after a 12-14 start in the Mecca. New York has also beaten the spread in their last three. Then there's Minnesota, who has lost ATS in four of six and owns a 15-20 record on the road (16-19-0 ATS). That's without mentioning they may not have Anthony Edwards or Rudy Gobert for this matchup, their top offensive and defensive player. This game is New York's to lose, and with how they've been playing lately, I don't believe they will. Take the Knicks to cover. |
|||||||
03-20-23 | Bulls v. 76ers -8.5 | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units How does one bet against Philly at this point, given the run they are on. They have won 8 straight and 9 of their last 10 and are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games. They won their last three games on the road and are returning home for this one, so the appreciative Philly fans should give them an added boost. They then turn around and head out on the road again after this one, and that will be a tough stretch. It starts with Chicago again, at Chicago, and that could be a Philly loss. But for this one on Monday -- they will be happy to be home and they will take care of business. Take the Sixers to cover. |
|||||||
03-19-23 | Suns v. Thunder -115 | 120-124 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma City has been one of the most profitable teams in the NBA in recent weeks, covering the spread in six of its last eight games. The Thunder have been a team that I have been backing for several years, as they are continuously underrated by the betting market. They have been dominant against Phoenix at home, winning 17 of the last 19 meetings. The Suns have been trending in the opposite direction, only covering once in their last five games. They are going to be a contender when Durant returns, but they are a team to fade right now. |
|||||||
03-18-23 | Heat -150 v. Bulls | 99-113 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami is on track to finish in the top ten of the Eastern Conference, but to make another deep run in the NBA Playoffs, it will take more consistency down the stretch of the regular season. The Heat can finish strong with more performances like Wednesday's, which gives them something to build on. After taking down Cleveland, Utah, and Memphis in three of its past four, this appears to be the beginning of a more significant victory run for Miami. Chicago didn't play poorly on Wednesday but can't continue to lose winnable games if it hopes to make any noise in the playoffs. After dropping consecutive games to Phoenix and Indiana, they bounced back against Houston and Denver before falling at the buzzer to Sacramento. While I expect them to win as spread favorites on Friday versus Minnesota, I'm not as bullish on them winning SU or covering versus Miami with zero day's rest. |
|||||||
03-18-23 | Kings -140 v. Wizards | 132-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wizards aren't good enough defensively to consistently slow the Kings down, as they won't get enough stops to cover this spread. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Wizards only have the 20th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are surrendering the 14th most points per game. Sacramento is one of the best offensive teams in the NBA, as they are scoring the most points per game and they have the highest adjusted offensive rating. They will efficiently score throughout this game and cover this spread. Sacramento is also (8-2) in their last 10 games played, as they are playing great basketball right now. They are the hotter team and they will be ready for this matchup on the road. Now, Washington won't have the same offensive success, as they are only averaging the 21st most points per game and they've struggled to shoot from the outside. Sacramento will defend the paint and do everything they can to keep the Wizards off the scoreboard. |
|||||||
03-18-23 | Nuggets v. Knicks +2 | 110-116 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York has been one of the hottest teams in the NBA since the beginning of February, winning and covering the spread in 11 of its last 14 games The Knicks have also covered the spread in six of their last seven home games, despite struggling at Madison Square Garden earlier in the year. They are facing a Denver team that has been trending in the opposite direction, winning once in its last five games and covering once in its last six games. New York could get an additional boost if Brunson returns, so I will back the team with momentum in this matchup. |
|||||||
03-17-23 | Grizzlies -8.5 v. Spurs | 126-120 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There are some negatives surrounding both of these teams right now, but I feel much better about backing a Memphis team that is motivated to get back on track. The Grizzlies have won 10 straight meetings between these teams, including six in a row in San Antonio. They had won three straight games prior to their loss against Miami, so they have been playing decent basketball without Morant on the court. Meanwhile, San Antonio has only covered the spread five times in its last 20 games. The Spurs have not only been losing games, but they have not been competitive in most of them. |
|||||||
03-17-23 | 76ers -10.5 v. Hornets | 121-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I don't expect the Sixers to take a night off at this point, with the team so close to the second spot in the Eastern Conference standings. The two teams have split the previous two meetings this season but haven't squared off since December. Both teams have gone through changes since then and the Sixers are now arguably the hottest team in the NBA. Charlotte will not have any answers for Embiid and he should dominate this matchup. Additionally, I expect the Sixers to exploit Charlotte's mediocre perimeter defense with the league's best 3pt shooting. Charlotte is positioning for the most ping-pong balls in the draft lottery while the Sixers are trying to earn home-court advantage in the playoffs. |
|||||||
03-16-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -13 | 139-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have won 10 straight games over the Pacers, including 2-0 this season. In that time, Milwaukee is also 8-2 ATS vs. the Pacers. Milwaukee's defense should be able to stifle the Pacers' offense which is just 25th in the league in field goal shooting. On the season, the Bucks are 28-6 at home and 46-10 as favorites. Indiana is just 1-5 ATS in its last six meetings with the Bucks and has won just four of its last 17 road games. The Bucks have not shown a proclivity to slow down over the last two months and I don't expect a letdown game here upon their return home from the trip. |
|||||||
03-16-23 | Nuggets v. Pistons +15 | 119-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I love a contrarian bet, and this one certainly fits the bill. The Nuggets are still the top team in the Western Conference, but they have failed to cover the spread in five straight games and are riding a four-game losing streak overall. They are facing a Detroit team that no one wants to bet on right now, but the Pistons picked up an outright win earlier this week and will be getting a boost when Ivey from a three-game absence. The Pistons have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 games against Denver, including an outright win earlier this season, and they have value as double-digit underdogs on Thursday. |
|||||||
03-15-23 | Celtics -195 v. Wolves | 104-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston will be highly motivated to bounce back in this game after their terrible loss to the Rockets, as they will dominate on both ends of the court in this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Celtics have the third-lowest adjusted offensive rating and the fourth-lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will get the job done on both ends of the court and easily cover the spread in this game. Minnesota has continued to struggle on the offensive end of the court, as they won't be able to efficiently score in this one. The Celtics are holding their opponents to the ninth least amount of points per game and the sixth-lowest shooting percentage. They will contest shots near the rim and on the perimeter and keep the Timberwolves from scoring enough points to cover this spread. Boston is still one of the top teams in the NBA in my opinion and they will show that in this game. |
|||||||
03-15-23 | 76ers v. Cavs +2.5 | 118-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland was clearly doing some load management on Tuesday night to be fully prepared for this critical matchup. The Cavaliers were able to give Mitchell a day off, so their leading scorer and top defender should be fresh on Wednesday. Allen’s status is still up in the air at the time of writing, but his return would provide a big boost as well. Philadelphia looked terrible in its first trip to Cleveland this season, getting blown out in a 113-85 final. The Cavaliers top-ranked defense held Embiid to just 19 points in one of his worst outings of the campaign. They need this game worse than Philadelphia as far as the standings go, and I expect them to come up with a big win. |
|||||||
03-14-23 | Nets v. Thunder -120 | 107-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to ride with the OKC Thunder ML in this game, as they are the home team and I don't believe the Nets are as good as their numbers look. Without Durant and Irving, they aren't the same team and I believe the Thunder are good enough to consistently stop them. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Thunder have the ninth-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the 13th-lowest shooting percentage from the field. They will smother the Nets and keep them from scoring enough points to cover this spread. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still listed as questionable and we probably won't know if he is playing until right before the game, but I see the Thunder winning regardless of him being on the floor. But, if he does play. Then, I would hammer the Thunder as fast as I could. OKC is also scoring the fourth most points per game and they can score anywhere on the floor. Brooklyn will struggle to slow them down and the Thunder will pick up another win at home. |
|||||||
03-14-23 | Lakers +1.5 v. Pelicans | 123-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to ride with the Lakers on the road, as I like the additions that they made at the trade deadline and they will be highly motivated to bounce back after losing their last game to the Knicks. I don't trust the New Orleans Pelicans right now, either. They are currently dealing with injuries, as Ingram is questionable for this game and Zion is still out. This has hurt them all season, and I see that trend continuing in this one. I don't believe the Pelicans will be able to efficiently score against the Lakers, as they have the 14th-lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are holding their opponents to the 10th-lowest shooting percentage from the field. They will make it tough for the Pels and New Orleans will slowly fall behind in this game. I also trust this Los Angeles offense, as they are averaging the eighth most points per game and they have the 11th-highest team shooting percentage. They will continue to attack the basket throughout this game and slowly pull away. The Lakers are playing desperately and the Pelicans have continued to slide in the wrong direction. |
|||||||
03-13-23 | Suns v. Warriors -177 | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State’s home-road splits have been one of the major storylines throughout this NBA season, and it is not something I am going to fade on Monday night. The Warriors are just 7-26 on the road this year, but they are 28-7 in their 35 home games. They have covered the spread at a tremendous 23-11-1 clip in their games at the Chase Center, and Phoenix has a losing record on the road. Durant’s absence and Curry’s return make this an even easier selection, especially since the Warriors have covered in seven straight home games. Phoenix has only covered once in its last five trips to Golden State. |
|||||||
03-13-23 | Celtics -12.5 v. Rockets | 109-111 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics won't have any issues rolling along to a big win on Monday night against one of the NBA's worst teams. Even though they'll be hitting the road, that didn't seem to bother them in the first game of their road trip, while Houston has one of the worst home-court advantages in the league. The Rockets' lone advantage this season has been their rebounding but with Sengun questionable, even that expects to be thrown out the window. On the other side, the Celtics' core is getting healthier and healthier and finally regaining the form that saw them dominate the first half of the season. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Celtics are 4-1 in their last five games against teams with a losing straight-up record, while Houston is 0-5 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. |
|||||||
03-13-23 | Pacers -155 v. Pistons | 97-117 | Loss | -155 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Indiana Pacers are battling for the last play-in spot in the conference and every game is huge at this point. The stumbling Pistons have nothing to play for and are dealing with one of the most depleted lineups in the league. They are playing without Cade Cunningham, and Bojan Bogdanovic while Alec Burks, Jaden Ivey, and Marvin Bagley III are all questionable. The Pacers are playing strong basketball on the road, winning four of their last five road bouts including Saturday's win in Detroit. They covered in four of the five games in that span. Detroit has lost 11 straight games and four of their last five defeats have all been by six or more points. |
|||||||
03-12-23 | Knicks v. Lakers -135 | 112-108 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Not only does New York have to play on back-to-back nights, but the Knicks have been terrible defensively of late, allowing 120.2 points per game over their last five. That includes allowing at least 118 in four of their last five games. The Knicks have been very good offensively of late, but face a tough Clippers team on Saturday and then have to come back to take on the Lakers. That is a gauntlet and should decrease their offensive production by at least six points. Plus, the Lakers are playing better defense, really clamping down which should drop the N.Y. offense even more. |
|||||||
03-12-23 | Wizards v. 76ers -7 | 93-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to ride with the Philadelphia 76ers and I am going to lay the points at home. They are currently (25-10) inside the Wells Fargo Center this season, as I see them staying hot in this game. They have the advantage on both ends of the court, as they will slowly pull away throughout this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the 76ers have the fourth-highest adjusted offensive rating and the ninth-lowest defensive rating. They will get the job done on both ends of the court and dominate in this game. The Wizards are only (4-6) in their last 10 and they've continued to struggle on the defensive end of the court. Washington won't get enough stops to cover the spread, as they only have the 20th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are allowing the 16th most points per game. They've struggled to defend on the perimeter, as Philadelphia will get hot from the outside and pull away throughout this game. Philadelphia is scoring the 14th most points per game and they have the highest three-point shooting percentage in the league. They will score throughout and cover the spread at home |
|||||||
03-11-23 | Mavs v. Grizzlies -5.5 | 108-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
03-10-23 | Cavs +2.5 v. Heat | 115-119 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Cavaliers on the road, as they just took down this same Heat team on Wednesday night and they are the better offensive team in this matchup. They will find different ways to score, as they have the ninth-highest adjusted offensive rating and they have the sixth-highest team shooting percentage. They will efficiently score against this Heat defense and slowly pull away throughout this game. Miami will have a difficult time keeping up with the Cavs, as they have continued to struggle on the offensive end of the court. According to dunksandthrees.com, they only have the 26th-highest adjusted offensive rating and they are averaging the least amount of points per game. The Cavaliers have one of the best defenses in the NBA and they will be ready for this game on the road. They will clamp down on the Heat and keep them from scoring enough points to cover this spread. The Cavaliers are currently holding their opponents to the least amount of points per game and they have the lowest adjusted defensive rating. They will dominate on both ends of the court and cover the spread in this game. |
|||||||
03-10-23 | Nets +4.5 v. Wolves | 124-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though they'll be playing for the second-straight night, the Nets were able to rest their starters on Thursday, which will serve them well in covering the spread and springing the upset in this one. They have the wing talent to make a difference in this one and while the frontcourt has been a disadvantage to them on most nights, this is a matchup where that can be minimized. For the Timberwolves, a lack of solid home-court advantage has been a challenge for them to overcome as well. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six Friday games, while the Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days of rest. |
|||||||
03-10-23 | Blazers +8.5 v. 76ers | 119-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The history book shows Portland 21-12 SU and 18-13-2 ATS in this series when Philly sports a .426 or greater win percentage, including 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS when looking to avenge a same-season loss. Meanwhile, the Sixers enter off a same season revenge contest of their own with the Timberwolves toting a 4-12 ATS ledger as home chalk after meetings with Minnesota while having a same-season double revenger on deck with Washington. Connect the dots and put the Trail Blazers on your playlist tonight. |
|||||||
03-09-23 | Nets v. Bucks -12 | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks have some of the best depth in the NBA and even with their injuries, adding that depth to their homecourt advantage, will be too much for the Nets to overcome. Brooklyn continues their road trip and with fatigue setting in, they don't have the legs to keep up with the Bucks in this one. The biggest difference between these two sides is their rebounding ability and with the Bucks having that advantage on the glass on both ends, their ability to dominate in second-chance scoring will push them forward toward covering the spread in this one. Additionally, according to covers.com, the Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played off of one day of rest, while they are also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee. |
|||||||
03-09-23 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 110-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The Dubs have won five out of the last six games against the Grizzlies overall, but they are 5-0 at home during that stretch. On the road, Memphis has beaten the Warriors in four of the last games straight up, and the Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in the last six games against the Warriors at FedEx Forum. I understand Morant will not be playing, but Memphis is 4-1 straight up in home games without him this season. Both of these teams have been so drastically different at home vs on the road this season. I have to take the home dog here. |