Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-19-22 | Blazers v. Thunder +7.5 | 121-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma City is coming off a 115-109 win over Memphis on Saturday in a game in which it was without its two top scorers -- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. Gilgeous-Alexander missed the game with a lower back contusion. Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said he didn't expect Gilgeous-Alexander to miss much time. Giddey was out with a non-COVID illness. Darius Bazley has missed back-to-back games for the same reason. Oklahoma City has also been without Ousmane Dieng, who has missed the last six games with a right wrist fracture, and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, who has missed the last three with a right ankle sprain. Today's game is the first of four between the teams this season. The Thunder swept last season's four-games series. All four meetings occurred after Lillard was lost with a season-ending abdominal injury. Consider that the Thunder are 42-19-3 ATS in their last 64 games following a ATS win. |
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12-18-22 | Wizards v. Lakers -185 | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Wizards desperately need Bradley Beal back. But even if Beal returns from his hamstring injury and Anthony Davis hits the sidelines, I would take the Lakers to win and cover. LeBron James and his teammates are slowly but surely improving their form, and I doubt the Wizards’ chances to slow down the Lakers’ offense. Washington has covered just once in its previous eight games overall. Also, the Wizards have gone 2-12-1 ATS over their last 15 showings at any location. On the other side, the Lakers are 7-4-1 ATS in their past 12 contests overall and 5-1-1 ATS in their previous seven games at home. |
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12-18-22 | Nets v. Pistons +8.5 | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Detroit is coming off a 122-113 home loss to the Sacramento Kings. The Pistons led 63-55 at halftime but the Kings took control with a 17-2 run at the beginning of the second half. The Kings outscored Detroit 38-23 during the third quarter. The Pistons crept within three points in the fourth quarter but couldn't complete the comeback. Detroit collected a 141-134 overtime road victory against Charlotte in its previous outing. Consider that the Nets are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS win. |
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12-17-22 | Blazers v. Rockets +4 | 107-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Surprising and sudden defensive prowess had fueled the Houston Rockets through a five-game homecourt winning streak, highlighted by consecutive victories over the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns earlier in the week. Against the Miami Heat on Thursday, the Rockets proved unable to maintain that defensive momentum, falling 111-108 in the third game of a seven-game homestand that continues on Saturday against the Portland Trail Blazers. Central to the Rockets' struggles against the Heat was on-ball defense, namely against Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler. Herro poured in a career-high 41 points while sinking 10 3-pointers, also a career best. He torched several defenders in his wake. Butler finished with 20 points and 10 rebounds, and he added seven assists by routinely finding teammates in the corners after beating his defender off the dribble. Houston will face a similar challenge against Portland and its guard tandem of Damian Lillard -- who will enter the game 46 points shy of surpassing Hall of Fame guard Clyde Drexler atop the franchise career scoring list -- and Anfernee Simons. However, what should embolden Houston is the manner in which it competed against Miami down the stretch despite the sharpshooting of Herro and the all-around brilliance displayed by Butler, who also chipped in four steals. Finally, the Trail Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. |
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12-17-22 | Grizzlies v. Thunder +9 | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Grizzlies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. While the Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss. |
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12-17-22 | Heat v. Spurs +7.5 | 111-101 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs have played six games in Mexico, most recently a 121-119 overtime win over Phoenix as part of the NBA Mexico City Games 2019. It will mark Miami's second game ever in Mexico, with the other a 101-89 loss against the Brooklyn Nets in December 2017. San Antonio got in a vigorous workout on Friday to acclimate to the higher elevation of Mexico's capital city. San Antonio defeated the Heat 115-111 in Miami on Dec. 10 in the first matchup of the year between the teams. Consider that the Heat are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up win. |
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12-16-22 | Nuggets v. Lakers +2 | 108-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver beat LA 110-99 as a 5-point home fave in their first meeting of the season on October 26, and the Lakers responded with a 121-110 home victory four days later, playing as 2.5-point home dogs. It was the Lakers’ first win in 2022-23. They held Denver to 42.7% shooting from the field while making 13 of their 30 attempts from beyond the arc. The Lakers nearly defeated the Celtics last Tuesday, and I’m expecting them to grab this one over the Nuggets, whose defense will struggle to cope with both LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Of course, the Lakers will have to bring their best defense and slow down Nikola Jokic as much as possible. Los Angeles is defending the 3-point line well, but Davis has to contain Jokic in the paint. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Western Conference, while the Nuggets have covered the spread just once in their previous six games overall. |
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12-16-22 | Knicks v. Bulls -135 | 114-91 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Knicks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. While the Knicks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. |
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12-16-22 | Magic +13 v. Celtics | 117-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando has had a season full of streaks, as its current run of four wins in a row follows a nine-game skid that spanned more than two weeks. The Magic will begin a four-game trip after Wednesday's 135-124 win over Atlanta, which extended the team's longest win streak since early in the 2020-21 season. "These guys are just continuing to learn to trust each other," Orlando coach Jamahl Mosley said. "The rhythm that they're finding, the continuity, being willing to make the open pass." Against the Hawks, Franz Wagner scored 24 points to lead an offense that had a 50-point first quarter, the highest-scoring period in Magic history. Bol Bol had 21 points, Paolo Banchero added 20 points and six rebounds, and Markelle Fultz finished with 16 points, seven rebounds and nine assists. Consider that the Magic are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. |
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12-16-22 | Nets v. Raptors +1.5 | 119-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors have dropped three in a row for the first time this season after losing 124-123 to the visiting Sacramento Kings on Wednesday. Brooklyn has won all three games with Toronto this season. The Raptors continued to have problems in shooting 3-pointers on Wednesday, going 6 for 21 (28.6 percent). However, Toronto is 10-4 at home. Brooklyn is 7-7 on the road. |
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12-16-22 | Hawks v. Hornets -135 | 125-106 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither team is in good form coming into this game, but several injury situations are creating value on Charlotte at home. The Hawks lost Capela to an injury for the next week of action, which is going to make it tough for them to close out possessions with rebounds. They are facing a Charlotte team that got Ball back from an injury on Wednesday, and Gordon Hayward has been upgraded to questionable for Friday’s game. Atlanta is not a strong defensive team, which makes this a solid matchup for Charlotte’s high-scoring approach. The Hawks have only covered the spread once in their last six games and have gone 1-7 in their last eight road games, so I like Charlotte on Friday. |
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12-15-22 | Suns v. Clippers -115 | 111-95 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Keep tracking the Suns’ injury crisis. If Devin Booker remains on the shelf and both Deandre Ayton and Cameron Payne don’t suit up, take the Clippers to cover. On the flip side, Kawhi Leonard wasn’t on the injury report Wednesday, so he could easily get a day off on the back end of a back-to-back set. The Suns are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five outings, while the Clippers have covered the spread in three straight contests. LA has won five of its previous seven home games, and the Clippers will improve their record if the Suns cannot count on some of their best players. |
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12-15-22 | Pelicans v. Jazz +1.5 | 129-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For years, a stifling defense was one of the Utah Jazz's calling cards, which made sense considering they had a three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year patrolling the paint. If you ask Jazz coach Will Hardy, Utah's recent performance against Zion Williamson and the red-hot New Orleans Pelicans could be considered its best defensive performance since the franchise traded defensive powerhouse Rudy Gobert to Minnesota this past offseason. Whether the Jazz defense can stymie the Pelicans again will be an intriguing aspect of the teams' turnaround rematch today in Salt Lake City. In their 121-100 blowout win over the Pelicans on Tuesday, the Jazz held New Orleans -- previously the league's third-ranked scoring offense -- to its second-lowest scoring total of the season. The visitors, who saw their seven-game winning streak get snapped, only shot 39.8 percent overall and made only 4 of 27 3-point tries. Consider that the Jazz are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. |
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12-15-22 | Heat v. Rockets +4 | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Houston Rockets will need many more defensive performances similar to their two most recent efforts in order to climb from the bottom five in the NBA in defensive rating, but the results produced against the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns are nonetheless noteworthy. Houston extended its homecourt winning streak to five games with its 111-97 victory over the Suns on Tuesday, marking the second time this season the Rockets have held consecutive opponents below 100 points following their 97-92 home triumph over the Bucks on Sunday. The Rockets will look to extend their homecourt winning streak, and their stretch of tenacious defensive efforts. Consider that Heat are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win. |
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12-14-22 | Knicks +4.5 v. Bulls | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks come into this matchup playing their best basketball of the season. The Bulls have had trouble at two spots this season, the power forward and point guard. Those happen to be the Knicks two strongest spots with Randle and Brunson the team's two top scorers. The Knicks should dominate the glass in this matchup with the 3rd ranked rebounding team matched up against the Bulls 24th ranked rebounding unit. The Knicks are also 7-6 on the road and 8-5 ATS away from Madison Square Garden. The Knicks are also 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten games. Look for NY to make it five straight wins in this matchup. |
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12-14-22 | Pistons v. Hornets -162 | 141-134 | Loss | -162 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Livers (shoulder) suffered an injury on December 1 against the Mavericks and is expected to miss some time according to coach Dwane Casey. Cunningham (shin) hasn’t played since November 9 and his return date is up in the air as he could require surgery to deal with the injury. It was announced on December 11 that he will undergo season-ending surgery. Consider that the Hornets are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 2 days rest. |
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12-14-22 | Warriors v. Pacers +1.5 | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This will be the second game of a back-to-back for the Warriors and they have not been the same team on the road this season. They have only picked up two wins on the road, as I see this game staying very close until the very end. The Pacers are solid on the offensive end of the floor, as I see these two teams attacking one another until the very end. Neither team is special on the defensive end of the court, but they have shown that they can efficiently score. The Pacers are scoring the 12th most points per game and they have the 12th-highest three-point shooting percentage. The Warriors are surrendering the 23rd most points per game and they have been horrible on the road. They won't be able to slow down the Pacers and Indiana will be able to keep this game close until the end. The Warriors were forced to battle the Bucks on Tuesday night, as they will be exhausted for this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Pacers have the 16th-highest adjusted offensive rating, as they will continue to attack in this game. The Warriors have not been impressive on the defensive end of the court to begin this season. |
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12-13-22 | Pelicans -120 v. Jazz | 100-121 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pelicans have been one of the hottest teams over the past few weeks and I don't believe the Jazz are good enough defensively to win this game at home. New Orleans currently has the sixth-highest adjusted offensive rating and the third-lowest defensive rating, according to dunksandthrees.com. They will show up on both ends of the court and slowly pull away throughout this game. They are the better overall team and the Jazz has continued to give up points. Utah is surrendering the 21st most points per game and they have the 25th-lowest adjusted defensive rating. New Orleans will continue to attack them throughout this game, as they are scoring the third most points per game and they have the fifth-highest shooting percentage. They can attack the rim or make it rain from deep, as I see them lighting up the scoreboard in this game. They are also good enough defensively to shut down this Jazz offense. They will get consistent stops throughout this game and slowly pull away. |
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12-13-22 | Warriors v. Bucks -150 | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 1 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State is just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven Tuesday games, while the Bucks are on an 11-2 Tuesday ATS run. Milwaukee is also 10-5 ATS at home overall and will be motivated to bounce back from their loss to Houston. The Bucks have also won their last two home games against the Warriors by 19 points on Jan. 13, 2022, and by 39 points on December 25, 2020. I am backing Milwaukee. |
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12-12-22 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -9.5 | 103-128 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units NBA home favorites that have gone under the total by 30 or more combined points in their last three games are 129-72 ATS (+49.8 units) in the first half of the season, covering the spread by an average of +8.8 points per game. Since 2016, NBA home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a +3 to +7 points per game differential are 64-26 ATS following two or more consecutive unders versus teams with a +3 to -3 points per game differential. This situation has covered the spread by an average of +11.3 points per game and is 32-11 ATS over the last three seasons (2-0 ATS this year). Since January 17, 2022, the Grizzlies are 17-3 ATS off a game in which they made fewer than ten 3-pointers versus opponents with less than three days of rest. |
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12-12-22 | Heat v. Pacers +3.5 | 87-82 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Heat have allowed an average of 117 points in their last three road games which is above their season average of 110 points. The Pacers have a better offensive efficiency rating than the Heat, posting 109.4 points per 100 possessions while the Heat has dipped to 107.9 points per 100. Indiana continues to shine offensively, averaging 120 points in its last four games. They already beat the Heat by a 101-99 score in the lone meeting. Indiana is hot from deep, sinking at least 40% of their threes in three straight clashes including a 48% performance on Saturday. |
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12-10-22 | Celtics v. Warriors +3 | 107-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-10-22 | Thunder v. Cavs -5.5 | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland is playing the second game of a back-to-back situation here but on the plus side, at least there was no travel involved for them as both games are at home. The Cavaliers have gotten healthier over the last week or so with Love and Allen both returning to action to bolster their frontcourt. Oklahoma City has played decent basketball but they lack much of a frontcourt presence to contend with Cleveland’s low block presence. The Thunder are second-worst in the league in scoring defense this season and that is going to be problematic, especially since the Cavaliers are #1 in that category. While fatigue could be a small factor, Cleveland’s depth and talent is enough to get them the victory here. |
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12-10-22 | Nets v. Pacers -113 | 136-133 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Because Saturday is the second night of a back-to-back for the Nets, Ben Simmons is not expected to play after returning Friday following a four-game absence caused by a calf injury. Neither is T.J. Warren, who returned Dec. 2 from missing nearly two years while recovering from foot injuries. Vaughn was non-committal about whether Durant would play as the Nets are hoping to limit his minutes. Indiana is 3-5 since its last encounter with the Nets. After losing five times on a seven-game road trip, the Pacers improved to 8-4 at home with a 121-111 victory over the Washington Wizards on Friday night. The Pacers hit 18 3-pointers vs. Washington after making 19 in a loss at Minnesota on Wednesday. Indiana limited the Wizards to 40 percent shooting in the second half after Washington made 64.3 percent of its field-goal attempts in the first half. Indiana's Buddy Hield scored a season-high 28 points on 12-of-19 shooting, including 4 of 10 from 3-point range. He has made at least four 3-pointers in four consecutive games, and he put up 26 points in the last meeting with the Nets. Consider that the Nets are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. |
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12-10-22 | Clippers v. Wizards +5.5 | 114-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite the emotional return of Wall, the Clipper come into this game very banged up and with a compromised bench. Jackson and Powell represent two of the Clippers better shooters from long range and will be missed against a Wizard team that has been scoring at a high rate despite their losing streak. In addition, Washington is 3-1 this season in the second games of back-to-backs. The Clippers have staked their claim this season on scoring defense and rebounding but the Wizards are nearly as effective on the glass and are shooting the ball at a high rate. Look for the Wizards to snap their losing streak against an inconsistent Clippers team. |
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12-09-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +1.5 | 117-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units They say styles make matchups and, in this case, the style of the Pelicans should give Phoenix problems. With Ingram out, Williamson has gotten the bulk of the touches for the Pelicans and his playing his best basketball in two seasons. In truth, he is a nightmare matchup for most teams but particularly a nightmare for Phoenix as they continue to play without Cameron Johnson. Williamson should dominate the paint against the rather light Suns. In other news, while it will obviously benefit the Suns going forward having Paul back, he has a lot of rust to shake off his 37-year old body and looked to be at least a step slow on Wednesday night. If Alvarado is cleared to play, the pesky point guard will surely cause fits for Paul as he tries to get up to speed. This feels like a chance for the Pelicans to make an early statement at home against the recent class of the Western Conference. |
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12-09-22 | Kings v. Cavs -155 | 106-95 | Loss | -155 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland has won its last seven home games all by at least 10 points or more, and the Kings have dropped three of their last four home games by at least nine-points. Although the Kings losses were against good competition, Cleveland is the best home team in the NBA right now, and will be dialed in to get revenge from their loss to the Kings earlier this season. Even if Mitchell cannot play, the Cavs are deep enough to make this happen. Daris Garland also had a season low six points the last team he faced the Kings and should show up in a big way tonight. I like Cleveland. |
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12-09-22 | Raptors v. Magic +9 | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games. The Magic will ride the momentum of Wednesday's victory, scoring 60-plus points in the paint against Toronto's sub-par interior defense. I'll bet the Magic cover the seven-point spread at Amway Center. |
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12-08-22 | Clippers v. Heat -6 | 110-115 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Clippers will try to rebound from a confounding loss in the first half of a back-to-back set when they continue a four-game road swing today against the Miami Heat. After opening its Eastern Conference tour on Monday with a 119-117 victory over the Charlotte Hornets, Los Angeles coughed up an 18-point, first-quarter lead on Wednesday and lost in overtime to the Orlando Magic, 116-111. The Clippers went the final 3:22 of regulation without scoring against the team with the NBA's worst record, giving up the last six points. Los Angeles again was outscored 6-0 down the stretch of overtime. Since Nov. 19, Los Angeles is 5-5 and scored at least 114 points in each of the five wins. The Clippers scored 112 points or fewer in each of the five losses. Los Angeles' offensive woes were pronounced at Orlando. Consider as well that the Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. |
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12-07-22 | Celtics v. Suns | 125-98 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game could easily go either way, as the two of the best teams in the NBA take on each other for the first time in 2022-23. Chris Paul will probably miss his 15th consecutive game, but the Celtics could be shorthanded, too. Both Malcolm Brogdon and Al Horford are important players for this Boston team, and if they sit out, I’m going with the Suns. Phoenix has won seven of its last eight games on the home court. The Suns will be highly motivated to bounce back from that heavy loss at Dallas and prove their worth against the NBA-leading Celtics. Phoenix is 10-3 ATS in its previous 13 encounters with Boston. |
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12-06-22 | Mavs v. Nuggets -195 | 116-115 | Loss | -195 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets were quite shorthanded in those two games against Dallas in November, missing both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. This time around, Denver is without Michael Porter Jr. (heel), while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (wrist) is questionable to play. The Mavericks, on the other side, might miss Christian Wood due to non-COVID illness. I’m expecting Nikola Jokic to torture the Mavericks in the paint, especially if Wood remains on the shelf. The Nuggets should be motivated to improve on the defensive side of the ball after a couple of straight losses, while the Mavericks will continue to lean on their 3-point shooting. There will be tired legs among the Mavs after a tough matchup against the Suns on Monday night, so I’m going with the Nuggets to cover. |
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12-06-22 | Pistons +7.5 v. Heat | 116-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Heat entered Monday night winners of four of their previous five games and stood tied for second in the Southeast Division with the Wizards, two games behind the Hawks for the top spot. Miami is 2-2 in the second game of back-to-back situations this season with a -2.7-ppg scoring differential (108.3 ppg for, 111 ppg against) in those contests. The Heat have posted an 8-4 record at home this season with a +1.7-ppg scoring margin (111 ppg for, 109.3 ppg against) in South Beach. Miami is 7-8 against Eastern Conference foes on the season with a -1.7-ppg scoring differential (108.6 ppg for, 110.3 ppg against) to date. |
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12-05-22 | Celtics v. Raptors -122 | 116-110 | Loss | -122 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston may be ripe for an upset in this spot against the Raptors. The Raptors hold onto the ball better at home than on the road and possess the kind of wings that can cause Boston problems. Barnes, Siakam and Aunoby are all plus defenders that can interchange positions which can cause the Celtics problems. Toronto is a solid 12th in the NBA in defending the 3pt shot which is critical against a Celtics' team that thrives on ball movement and volume from the 3pt line. In addition, Boston will likely be without Horford in this one which will weaken an already suspect rebounding team. Keep an eye on Marcus Smart as well. He hurt his hip near the end of the Miami loss and it will be interesting how he responds to a back-to-back. This is a solid spot to take the points with a good home team. |
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12-02-22 | Rockets v. Suns -11.5 | 122-121 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns have won six straight games and seven straight home games. They have one of the best offenses in the league and they played better in their last three games, scoring more than 120 points per game while making over 50 percent of their shots. They are very aggressive on the offensive glass and will get a lot of extra scoring opportunities against the Rockets. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give up a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Rockets are terrible defensively, especially on the road where they are giving up more than 117 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the hot-shooting Suns. The Rockets have lost four of their last six games and four of their last five road games |
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12-02-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs +7.5 | 117-99 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pelicans have not been near as threatening when on the road, losing four out of their last five road games. The Spurs have been competitive at home. They have played six out of their last nine games on the road which has not helped matters in their losing streak. San Antonio has recently covered the spread against the Nuggets, Grizzlies, and Warriors all within their last six home games. The Spurs have been decent in the offensive end, sinking at least 110 points in three out of their last four games, equating to an average of 113.3 points. This includes 110 points against this Pelicans squad in that span and 138 points against the Lakers in their previous home game. |
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12-02-22 | Heat v. Celtics -7 | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oddsmakers were taking their time in releasing a line for this game due to Butler’s status. He is Miami’s leading scorer, so his availability will certainly change the line by multiple points. However, I am going to find myself on Boston either way in this matchup. The Celtics have covered the spread in five straight games and are on a 10-game home winning streak. They have the best offense in the NBA and Tatum is looking like an MVP favorite right now. Miami does not have enough offensive firepower to keep pace, so I am expecting a similar result to Wednesday night. |
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11-30-22 | Raptors -2.5 v. Pelicans | 108-126 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a tough spot for the Pelicans. While they are home, where they have only lost three times all year, they face a suddenly healthy and surging Raptors team that has back all of its key players. The big boost is Siakam, who is off the injured list. But also, Scottie Barnes and VanVleet, who have spent time on the shelf, are back in the fold. We haven't seen that much of a fully loaded Raptors team, so look for this unit to do some damage. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have been bitten by the injury bug with McCollum out and Ingram questionable. So, while New Orleans is a tough place to play, I like the Raptors to cover here. Take the Raptors. |
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11-27-22 | Mavs v. Bucks -7 | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks have struggled on the road and are having to play in back-to-back nights. They have gone 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record and are winners of just one of their last six games ATS when playing on zero day’s rest. This does not even include the fact that the Mavericks play in Canada, then have to cross the border to take on Milwaukee. This is not a good scenario at all. The Bucks have been incredible at home this season. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a losing record on the road and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee has the benefit of an extra day off and are at home. Should be a big night for the Bucks. |
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11-27-22 | Wizards v. Celtics -7.5 | 121-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston has been a team on fire in the early going this season as the transition from Ime Udoka to Joe Mazzulla behind the bench has been seamless. The Celtics continue to pile up gaudy offensive numbers as the addition of Brogdon brought in another scoring option in the backcourt. Washington has been good on the defensive end of the floor but their offensive struggles are hard to overcome. Ranking second-worst in the league in scoring more than a month into the season is a tough sell, especially when you’re facing the league’s top scoring attack. Playing at home with all the weapons that they boast, you have to give the upper hand to the Celtics in this one. |
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11-27-22 | 76ers v. Magic -125 | 133-103 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Philadelphia 76ers defeated Orlando in the opening game of this 2-game set over a three-day period but will find it hard to win two straight on the road against the same opponent in such a short span. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs will step up their game on Sunday at home against the 76ers. Even if Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid can go today, do not expect the big man to be 100%. Orlando lost by only eight points to Philadelphia on Friday and will reverse that today at home against the 76ers. Philadelphia has failed to cover the spread in 13 of its last 19 games played on the road. Orlando likes to play at home today, covering the spread in six of the last nine games in that situation. |
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11-27-22 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +2.5 | 127-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Knicks here bouncing back from a bad home loss against the Blazers, who played without Damian Lillard. The Knicks committed 35 fouls and that was the difference. The Grizzlies are a very physical team, but the Knicks have the size to match them inside, especially with Mitchell Robinson back. I just think this is a good spot for the Knicks, at home, after a bad loss, playing a Grizzlies team that hit the road after a big win over a divisional rival. The Grizzlies are 7-12 against the spread this season and have lost 4 of their last 6 ATS. Take the Knicks here to cover. |
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11-27-22 | Warriors v. Wolves +2 | 137-114 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Golden State Warriors have been horrible on the road this season, as they are (1-9). I see their struggles continuing in this one, as they will allow the Timberwolves to score enough points to cover this spread. Golden State is currently allowing the 28th most points per game and they have the 21st-highest adjusted defensive rating in the league. |
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11-26-22 | Jazz v. Suns -7 | 112-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Utah is playing their third game in four nights here and this marks their 14th road game this season against eight home games. The Jazz have sputtered on the defensive end of the floor lately and missing Conley is a big blow as he is a floor general on both ends. Phoenix has dealt with their share of injuries as well though Paul could be on the comeback trail in the near future. The Suns have the edge of playing at home the last couple of games so there is no travel involved for them leading into this contest. Phoenix has quality depth and they have been stellar at home this season: that’s enough to get by a tired, banged-up Utah squad here as they even the season series. |
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11-23-22 | Nets v. Raptors -130 | 112-98 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors have covered the spread in 64% (14-8) of their games when they have the rest advantage dating back to last season, and Brooklyn is just 4-14 against the spread when playing on a back-to-back over the same stretch. I am riding with the Raptors. |
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11-23-22 | Wolves v. Pacers +2 | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Timberwolves have the 16th-highest adjusted defensive rating, as they will struggle to consistently slow down the Pacers. Indiana is the better offensive team in this matchup, and they have shown that they will continue to contest shots inside the paint. They are holding their opponents to the seventh-lowest field goal shooting percentage, as they don't give up many easy looks around the basket. They will make consistent stops and keep the Timberwolves from scoring enough points to cover. |
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11-23-22 | 76ers +5.5 v. Hornets | 101-107 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I understand that Philly is without the majority of their superstars, but I still see them being a better team than the Hornets. Charlotte has had a horrible start to the year and if Lamelo Ball can't get back on the court, then I don't see this season turning around. Ball is listed as questionable for this game, but I'm not worried about him if he returns. The Hornets will be extra cautious with him, as the other Charlotte players will have to continue to carry the load. |
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11-22-22 | Lakers v. Suns -10 | 105-115 | Push | 0 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phoenix has dominated Los Angeles of late, going 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven encounters. Also, each of the Suns’ last six victories over the Lakers has come by ten or more points. The Suns are 8-2 ATS in their previous ten contests versus the Western Conference, while the Lakers haven’t covered in five consecutive outings on the road. |
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11-22-22 | Nets -7.5 v. 76ers | 106-115 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sixers are dealing with a ton of injuries and they are only scoring the 28th most points per game. They will continue to struggle in this one and the Nets will be able to keep this game close. Philadelphia won't play well without their stars, as the 76ers will continue to slide in the wrong direction. |
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11-21-22 | Jazz v. Clippers -155 | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers went just 8-for-33 from beyond the 3-point line in that eight-point loss to the Jazz three weeks ago, losing the fourth quarter 26-17. I’m expecting a much better display this time around, especially because the Clippers just dropped 21 triples on the Spurs. Even if Paul George misses Monday’s game, the Clippers will have enough firepower to outlast the Jazz, who’ll probably miss Mike Conley (10.2 PPG, 7.9 APG). Utah is 1-5 ATS in its previous six road games against the Clippers, who have gone 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games overall. |
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11-21-22 | Warriors v. Pelicans -9.5 | 83-128 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State is virtually unbackable away from home right now. The Warriors had lost all straight of their road games prior to Sunday’s win, but it took a ridiculous performance from Thompson and Curry to get the job done against a bad team. They are now having to play on the back-end of a back-to-back against a New Orleans squad that is expected to have its best player back on the court. This is not a good scheduling spot for Golden State, while New Orleans is rested and motivated coming into this matchup. The Pelicans are also the more balanced team, as they are good on both ends of the court. |
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11-21-22 | Hawks v. Cavs -130 | 102-114 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland is scoring the eighth most points per game and they have the 10th-highest team shooting percentage. They will continue to consistently score on the Hawks throughout this game, as they have continued to give up points this season. According to dunskandthrees.com, the Hawks have the 15th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are giving up the 18th most points per game. Mitchell has been on fire and I see him carrying his team to victory in this one. The Cavaliers are also (5-1) at home this season, as they have continued to play well in front of their own fans. |
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11-20-22 | Warriors v. Rockets +10.5 | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors have not shown proper respect to weaker opponents, resulting in losses to the Hornets, Pistons, Magic, and Kings outright as a road favorite. It's hard to love the Rockets, but this will be a game in which their young players will give their best effort. Golden State should win its first road game of the year this season, but they cannot be trusted to cover as a double-digit road favorite. |
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11-20-22 | Hornets v. Wizards -5.5 | 102-106 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These are two teams heading in opposite directions right now. The Hornets are playing terrible basketball, losers of 1o of their last 11 games, and their defense has been a problem. Also, it seems as if LaMelo Ball is banged up again and is questionable for Sunday's game. The Wizards quietly have a pretty balanced solid team that has the ability to hurt you inside and outside, and has improved their defensive capabilities, ranking 8th in the league in points allowed. Plus, the Hornets are 1-8-1 against the spread in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest and 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning straight up record. |
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11-19-22 | Magic v. Pacers -6 | 113-114 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Magic are dealing with injuries as scoring leader Paolo Banchero is likely out again with an ankle injury. Gary Harris made his season debut but likely won’t play big minutes in the second game of a back-to-back. The Pacers have fared well when playing their second game in as many nights, going 2-0 and covered in each win. Furthermore, the Magic continue to stumble, winning just four out of their last ten games. The Pacers have been stellar, logging a victory in seven out of their last nine clashes after beating Houston by eight points on Friday. The Pacers have been as reliable as it gets in the NBA, miraculously covering the spread in nine consecutive games. |
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11-18-22 | Pacers -190 v. Rockets | 99-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Indiana Pacers continue to dazzle, winning four out of their last five games propelled by consistent offensive production. The Rockets are stumbling. While they collected a rare win against Dallas on Wednesday, they only have two wins in their last 11 games. The Pacers are in a groove, averaging a remarkable 123 points in their last four games. This is key as the Rockets' defense is abysmal. They remain second last in the NBA in defensive efficiency and have squandered at least 116 points in five out of their last six games. The Pacers continue to defy the odds, literally. They have covered in eight consecutive games and will cover again. |
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11-18-22 | Bucks +1.5 v. 76ers | 102-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks won their first matchup with the Sixers this season, a two-point win in Philadelphia in October. The Sixers had Harden in that matchup while the Bucks played without Middleton and Connaughton. They should have Connaughton back for this matchup even while Middleton remains out. Lopez size and length can give Embiid problems and that showed through in the first matchup as Embiid was held to just 15 points. The Sixers have been off since Sunday so expect them to be rusty to start in this one. With Antetokoumpo back to full strength, he provides additional support in the paint against Embiid. And, not that many teams do, but the Sixers don't have anyone that can match up effectively with the Greek Freak. |
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11-17-22 | Nets v. Blazers -130 | 109-107 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Portland has covered the spread in four of its last five games and has been outstanding on the defensive end of the court. Brooklyn does not have enough firepower to keep pace with the top teams in the league right now, as Irving’s absence leaves the Nets severely shorthanded. They have gone 1-6 in their last seven games against Western Conference teams, and I do not expect that trend to change. |
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11-16-22 | Thunder v. Wizards -182 | 121-120 | Loss | -182 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Beal should be ready to go after missing over a week in health and safety protocols. His return should help the Wizards both on the perimeter and to nullify some of the offensive firepower of Gilgeous-Alexander. Beal's presence should also allow Porzingas more room in the paint as the Thunder will have to respect his shooting on the perimeter. The Wizards also are catching the Thunder on the next to last game of an Eastern Conference swing. Look for the Wizards to expose the Thunder in the paint and do just enough on the perimeter to bother the hot shooting Thunder. |
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11-15-22 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -125 | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I cannot justify a wager on the Grizzlies in this spot, as they could be without most of their key scoring production. They need everyone healthy in this type of game, as New Orleans has a ton of offensive firepower. Neither team has been great on the defensive end, and the Pelicans are the much healthier team. They have covered the spread in five of their last six home games against Memphis. |
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11-14-22 | Hornets v. Magic +105 | 112-105 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hornets will be without Hayward while Dennis Smith Jr. is questionable. They are stumbling offensively, netting 100 or fewer points in five out of their last seven games. The Magic are playing stifling defense, conceding only 87 and 97 points respectively in their last two games against the Suns and Mavs. The Magic were able to hold Charlotte to only 38% shooting in the first meeting. |
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11-13-22 | Nuggets v. Bulls +100 | 126-103 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nuggets have continued to struggle to defend on the road. They are currently allowing the 23rd most points per game and the fourth-highest shooting percentage. They will struggle to slow down the Bulls, as I see DeRozan having a big game in this one. Chicago has also shown that they can consistently knock down shots from deep, as they have the 12th-highest team shooting percentage from behind the arc. The Nuggets will leave their perimeter shooters open and continue to give up points throughout this game. |
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11-13-22 | Wolves v. Cavs -5 | 129-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers look to pull out of their funk against an opponent experiencing a more pronounced dip. Minnesota's losing streak equals Cleveland at three games, but the Timberwolves have dropped six of their last seven with Friday's 114-103 defeat against Memphis. Each of the last three Minnesota losses have been by double-digit-point margins, and none of the six in this slide have been any closer than nine points. A 46-33 Grizzlies rebounding advantage turned into a 32-9 edge in second-chance points Friday. Minnesota also yielded a 62-46 disparity for points in the paint. |
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11-13-22 | Thunder +5.5 v. Knicks | 145-135 | Win | 100 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma City is coming off one of the most impressive performances of any team this season, as eight players scored in double figures in its blowout win over Toronto. The Thunder are going to bring that confidence into this game, and they have already put together a four-game winning streak once this year. They also have one of the most dynamic point guards in the NBA leading the way, so they have multiple ways to win games. New York has not met Vegas expectations so far, covering the spread just twice in its last nine games. The Knicks are also 1-6 in their last seven home games against Oklahoma City. |
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11-12-22 | Rockets +10.5 v. Pelicans | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite their record, the Rockets have played extremely hard for Silas both last year and to start this season. That is indicated in key statistical areas like rebounding and personal fouls, due to their aggression. Houston is 7-5 ATS this season despite sitting at just 2-10. They will be tested here by another young, aggressive team in the Pelicans. The Pelicans have shown their youth this season through their inconsistency. While they sit at 6-6 overall, they are just 5-7 ATS. After starting the season with two double-digit wins, the Pelicans have only one win by over 10 points since that time. The Rockets, meanwhile, have only lost three of their ten losses by more than 10 points. |
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11-12-22 | Hawks +3.5 v. 76ers | 109-121 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Atlanta is off to its best start (8-4) since the 2016-17 season, Philadelphia sits near the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 5-7 record. The underachieving Sixers were hoping to build on Monday's encouraging 100-88 win over the Phoenix Suns, but instead turned in a dismal effort versus Atlanta. Philadelphia shot 38.6 percent from the field in the loss, including 6 of 30 (20 percent) from 3-point range. The Sixers have struggled to find a rhythm without star James Harden, who missed the last three games and will be out for approximately one month with a right foot tendon strain. |
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11-11-22 | Cavs +2.5 v. Warriors | 101-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State is having trouble slowing anyone down on the defensive end, which does not bode well against a Cleveland offense that is in the top 10 in the NBA. The Cavaliers have completely changed their trajectory as a franchise by adding Mitchell, and they have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games. Golden State has been vastly overvalued, covering once in its last six games. I want no part of the Warriors right now, while Cleveland is an undervalued team that I am happy to back. |
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11-09-22 | Lakers v. Clippers -150 | 101-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers won’t blow the Lakers away, but I cannot back Purple-and-Gold to cover because of all their injury problems. The Lakers have arguably been awful so far this season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They are scoring 104.2 points per 100 possessions (30th in the NBA) on 44.4% shooting from the field (26th) and 29.1% from downtown (30th). The Clippers are 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Lakers, and six of those eight victories have come by six or more points. |
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11-09-22 | Pelicans v. Bulls +2 | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bulls are 5-3 with LaVine in the lineup and 4-1 at home with him available. The Pelicans played like a team that just wants to head home in their last game and will have to find a way to ratchet up their intensity in this game as well. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are just 4-6 ATS this year thus far while the Bulls are a more formidable 7-4-1 ATS this season. |
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11-09-22 | Nuggets v. Pacers +5.5 | 122-119 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Denver Nuggets have been mediocre on the road this season where they are only 2-3. The Pacers have been outstanding on their home court where they are 3-0 in their last three clashes including wins against good foes in the Heat and Pelicans within the last week. |
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11-09-22 | Mavs v. Magic +7.5 | 87-94 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mavericks have not been good against the spread this season. They are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games overall, with the 1 being the push versus Orlando. Orlando, meanwhile, has been excellent against the spread, especially at home, where they are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 home games. They have played opponents tough, but they just haven't been able to convert them to Ws. Also, the Mavericks are 2-5 against the spread in the last 7 meetings in Orlando. |
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11-07-22 | Nuggets -7.5 v. Spurs | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 units The Nuggets have looked strong in their last couple of outings and very good so far this season. I expect them to extend their win streak to three and their series against the Spurs to 2-0. In their matchup on Saturday, the Nuggets were sinking a lot of their shots and giving themselves more scoring opportunities by dominating the boards. I expect the Nuggets to do the same on the road Monday. Hyland had a strong outing coming off the bench, scoring 24 points on the night with 17 points and five 2-pointers coming in the second half to help lift the lead for Denver. Jokic has always been a solid player for the Nuggets and has shown his dominance all over the court showing his ability to pull down boards while attacking the basket and shooting points. Based on the last outing and the dominant defensive and offensive outings, take the Nuggets. |
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11-07-22 | Raptors +2.5 v. Bulls | 97-111 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Toronto plays at a slow, but efficient pace, Chicago tends to play a bit faster. Therefore, it will be interesting to see who controls the tempo of the game. I believe Toronto can cover the spread at the least, and Toronto is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and 6-1 in their last seven. Meanwhile, Chicago is 2-6 ATS playing on zero days of rest and 3-8 ATS in their previous eleven contests while playing at home. |
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11-06-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers have won three straight games by eight or fewer points, outlasting the lowly Houston Rockets twice in the process. Hereof, I’m expecting to see another close battle when the Jazz come to town. Utah just found a way to drop 130 points on the Lakers, and the Jazz should have enough firepower to deal with the Clippers’ D. I’ve mentioned Utah’s selfless approach, so give me the visitors and points. Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall and 7-3 ATS in its last ten encounters with the Western Conference. The Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their previous eight contests overall, though they’ve covered in five straight home games against the Jazz. |
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11-05-22 | Rockets v. Wolves -7.5 | 117-129 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 units Minnesota has high expectations this season and need a win. After losing three straight games, I expect the Timberwolves to see red and be ready to dominant the young Rockets. The Timberwolves will be playing for the second night in a row, but they did not have to worry about travel. Houston is 0-6 straight up on the road this season with five of the losses coming by at least eight points or more. I have to back Minnesota here against a Houston team that still has a lot to learn about road life in the NBA, and how to win. |
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11-04-22 | Raptors +3.5 v. Mavs | 110-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors have covered the spread in five of their last six games, including four of their last five road games. They have also won nine of their last 10 games against Western Conference opponents. Doncic is going to put up big numbers, but Toronto’s balance and defense will be too much to handle in the end. |
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11-04-22 | Nets v. Wizards -150 | 128-86 | Loss | -150 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Given the troubles the Nets are dealing with right now concerning Kyrie and a new coach, I just don't see the Nets being able to put together four quarters of basketball to win on the road against a good team. The Nets are not a good defensive team, nor do they have any size, and this will be a problem against a team like the Wizards, which has multiple scorers and a decided-size advantage. The Nets are too distracted right now and it seems like things will continue to go sideways until some major shakeup happens. |
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11-02-22 | Pelicans -3 v. Lakers | 117-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If Anthony Davis sits out Wednesday’s game, the Pelicans will dominate in the paint. New Orleans ranks seventh in the league in offensive rebounds (12.5 per 100 possessions) and third in assists (27.8), so I’m expecting the Pelicans to control the game and cover a 3.5-point spread. Without Davis, the Lakers’ frontcourt is thin and will struggle to contain Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas. If Davis suits up, we should see a tight battle for all 48 minutes. Last season, the Pels went 3-0 SU and ATS against the Lakers. New Orleans is 3-1 SU and ATS on the road this time around, and the Pelicans have gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their previous six showings as favorites away from home. |
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11-02-22 | Hawks v. Knicks -130 | 112-99 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Hawks are at the end of a challenging five-game road trip. They have struggled in their last two games, losing by eight points to the Bucks, and were clobbered 139-109 against the Raptors on Monday night. The Knicks are home after a road trek and have yet to lose at MSG where they are a perfect 3-0. Furthermore, the Hawks are going to have trouble against an outstanding defense. The Knicks are limiting foes to only 107.7 points per 100 possessions, ranking them 6th while the Hawks are conceding 109.8. I expect the Knicks to out-rebound the Hawks as well. Atlanta has a negative rebounding margin and has been out-rebounded by a large margin in two straight games. The Knicks rank 2nd in NBA in rebounds per game. |
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11-01-22 | Wolves v. Suns -165 | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota has plenty of talent, including their twin tower look of Gobert and Towns in the low block. The problem is that they have sputtered shooting from the perimeter, which was a strength for them a season ago. Trying to make the adjustment with guys like Malik Beasley missing from last season’s team takes time. Phoenix has played well, even without Crowder in the mix, as the nucleus of the team is still intact. The Suns have been a dangerous team the last couple of seasons and are a two-point overtime loss at Portland away from having a perfect record on the season. Playing at home against a Minnesota team that is still putting all the pieces together works in their favor. Back the Suns at home in this contest. |
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10-31-22 | Rockets +9.5 v. Clippers | 93-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 units Houston Rockets vs LA Clippers. The NBA pick for this game is the LA Clippers. The Rockets struggled to start the season 1-5 but are 4-2 ATS. Expect the trend to spill over in this contest as they fall to the Clippers but will cover the nut in the process. LA has failed to cover the number in each of its last four. LA has a strong defense which is sixth in points allowed, but the Clippers are next to last or 29th in scoring at 102.6 points per game. |
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10-31-22 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | 118-111 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units 76ers haven't been as impressive to start this season. They are now (3-4), as they have continued to struggle on the defensive end of the court. According to dunksandthrees.com, the 76ers have the 19th-highest adjusted defensive rating in the NBA. They are also allowing their opponents to shoot 46.4% from the floor, which is the 14th-highest percentage allowed. The Wizards are currently shooting better than anyone in the league, as they have the highest shooting percentage from the floor. |
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10-30-22 | Nuggets -160 v. Lakers | 110-121 | Loss | -160 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lakers own the lowest-scoring offense in the NBA, averaging 97.0 points per 100 possessions. They are dead last in the NBA in both field goal percentage (41.6%) and 3-point percentage (23.7%), too. On the other side of the ball, the Lakers are surrendering 104.9 points per 100 possessions (2nd in the league) on 44.5% shooting from the field (7th) and 32.6% from downtown (also 7th). |
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10-30-22 | Warriors v. Pistons +7.5 | 114-128 | Win | 100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a good scheduling spot for Detroit, as it has had several days off and is playing at home. Golden State is on the backend of a road back-to-back, making this a difficult situation for the Warriors to put together a complete performance. Some of their stars are starting to age, which makes the second game of a back-to-back even tougher. They have not been good enough defensively to be worth wagering on as a large favorite in this spot. |
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10-30-22 | Pelicans v. Clippers -145 | 112-91 | Loss | -145 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The short-handed Pelicans are playing the middle game of a three-game road trip that began with a 124-111 loss at Phoenix on Friday. New Orleans was missing three injured starters -- Brandon Ingram (concussion), Zion Williamson (hip) and Herbert Jones (knee). Ingram did not make the three-game trip, which concludes against the Lakers on Wednesday. Williamson and Jones are questionable for Sunday. Rookie Dyson Daniels, who helped the Pelicans defeat visiting Dallas 113-111 on Tuesday despite the injured starters, also is questionable because of an ankle injury against the Mavericks. He did not play against the Suns. |
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10-29-22 | Heat -160 v. Kings | 113-119 | Loss | -160 | 1 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It is a new season in the NBA but it appears to be the same old Sacramento Kings. The Kings are off to an 0-4 start and they will look to get their first win of the season Saturday night against the Miami Heat. The Heat are not off to a great start either at 2-4. |
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10-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks -160 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The problem for Brooklyn is that they have struggled to stop teams in the early going as both the Pelicans and Grizzlies hung at least 130 points against them. That’s dangerous when you’re facing a Milwaukee team that just dropped 125 on the Rockets without Middleton in the mix. Now, he won’t be back for this contest but the fact remains that Antetokounmpo is a force all by himself, as the Rockets found out Saturday. The Bucks feed off the home crowd and they find the cracks in the Nets’ half-court defense to deliver a victory to the hosts. |
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10-26-22 | Magic v. Cavs -8.5 | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando is trying to cobble together a team that is playing a lot of young guys in an effort to find a cohesive group to build around going forward but it’s safe to say that they aren’t expecting to contend. Cleveland has that young nucleus and made the big move to acquire Mitchell from Utah before the season started to give them a premiere scoring option in crunch time. The Cavaliers have a good group of pieces around him and will only get better once Garland is back to full speed after his eye injury. Cleveland has won two straight and seeing how Orlando has yet to get in the win column this season, you have to fade them accordingly. |
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10-24-22 | Nuggets -180 v. Blazers | 110-135 | Loss | -180 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers lack weapons to compete with Nikola Jokic, who averaged 18.7 points, 11.7 boards, and 9.0 assists in just 27.5 minutes on the floor against Portland in 2021-22. The Nuggets are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine meetings with the Trail Blazers, and their previous three victories over Portland have come by 29 or more points. |
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10-21-22 | Suns -5 v. Blazers | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns have won six of their last seven contests against the Trail Blazers and are 9-3 ATS in their previous 12 meetings with Portland. The Trail Blazers have only covered twice in their last nine showings at Moda Center. |
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10-21-22 | Raptors +2.5 v. Nets | 105-109 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This contest will be interesting as the Nets looked lackadaisical for long stretches of the game against the Pelicans. Sure, New Orleans got a boost from the return of Zion Williamson but the fact remains that the Nets were hammered right out of the gate. Toronto had their struggles against a Cleveland squad that added Donovan Mitchell in an offseason trade but came up with the clutch plays down the stretch to earn the victory. The Nets still have Durant and Irving to lead the way though their showing against the Pelicans is cause for concern. Given what we saw from Brooklyn on both ends of the floor, it’s tough to like them here, even at home. Take the points and the Raptors here as they claw out a win on the road. |
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10-21-22 | Pistons v. Knicks -7 | 106-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks lost their opener, but there is a lot to like there. They came back, on the road, and sent it to overtime against a good team. Now, they play their home opener and I would be shocked if they did not win it in front of a pumped up home crowd at Madison Square Garden. Detroit is going to be a team to be reckoned with, this season, with loads of top young talent. But this scene at MSG will be a lot to handle for a young team not used to winning on the road. Barrett was awful in game 1 and I expect a bounce back, and look for Brunson to put on a show in his home opener in front of the new fans. |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -162 | 103-90 | Loss | -162 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston hasn’t lost back-to-back games at home this postseason, and they are 3-0 in elimination games. The key for Boston will be taking care of the basketball, as the Celtics are 1-7 in the playoffs when they have 15 or more turnovers. Boston’s home fans will be chomping at the bit to make today’s atmosphere an electric one, the Celtics have what it takes to force a Game 7. |
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06-05-22 | Celtics +4.5 v. Warriors | 88-107 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics have been "Road Warriors" in the postseason. Boston is 8-2 away from home, including three wins at Miami in the Eastern Conference finals and a Game 6 victory at defending-champion Milwaukee that kept the Celtics alive in the conference semifinals. The trend continued with the stellar fourth-quarter rally. While Jaylen Brown (24 points) and Derrick White (21 points, five 3-pointers) combined with Horford for 71 points, star Jayson Tatum was just 3-of-17 shooting for 12 points. He did deliver 13 assists, the most in his career. |
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05-29-22 | Celtics -140 v. Heat | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite, 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. While the Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog. Additionally the Celtics are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Miami. |
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05-13-22 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Warriors | 96-110 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units At home, the Warriors have been unbeatable during the playoffs. They won three home games in a row by an average of 13.3 points over the Denver Nuggets in Round 1 and crushed the Grizzlies 142-112 in San Francisco in Game 3 of this series as the visitors watched Morant go down with a knee injury. But Memphis, as it has done all season, has responded well to seeing its star in street clothes on the sidelines. The Grizzlies were without Morant for 25 games in the regular season, winning 20 of them. And in Game 4 they led for almost 46 of the 48 minutes despite shooting poorly (41.7 percent overall, 25.7 percent on 3-pointers) but the Warriors escaped with a 101-98 decision. Then in Game 5, the Grizzlies' shots fell at a rate of 47.5 percent, including 43.9 percent on 3-point shots, and they buried the Warriors early. Memphis led by 10 after the first, 27 after the second, and 52 points after the third quarter. The lead topped out at 55. Consider that the Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. |
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05-09-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Monday's game on the defending NBA champions' home floor is now essentially a must-win for the Celtics, who will host Game 5 on Wednesday night. While no loss is easy to swallow, especially in the playoffs, Boston mounted a late-game surge that could give it some momentum heading into Game 4. After trailing by 13 with 9:48 left to play in the fourth quarter, the Celtics stormed all the way back and eventually went ahead 100-99 after a pair of free throws from Jaylen Brown. Following buckets from Antetokounmpo and Holiday that put the Bucks up by three, Boston's Marcus Smart sank the first of two free throws before intentionally missing the second. Robert Williams and Al Horford each missed put back layups. Consider that the Celtics are 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings including 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee. |
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05-07-22 | Celtics +2 v. Bucks | 101-103 | Push | 0 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston can now take its first advantage of the series and will have the chance to do so with its best defender returning to the lineup. Marcus Smart, the NBA Defensive Player of the Year, is expected to be back for Game 3. Smart was out Tuesday with a thigh contusion after finishing with 10 points and six assists in a 101-89 Game 1 loss. Derrick White started for Smart in Game 2 but was held scoreless through 28 minutes. Despite the 6-foot-4 guard's scoring woes, the Celtics were 22 points better than the Bucks when White was on the floor. While Boston is looking to ride its momentum, the Bucks are looking to find the cracks in a defense that held them to their season low in points during Game 2. Milwaukee shot just 16.7 percent from 3-point range (3 of 18) and committed 16 turnovers, which translated to 24 Boston points. Giannis Antetokounmpo got off to a slow start with just five points on 2-of-12 shooting in the first half. Antetokounmpo said that the level of physicality the Celtics have brought in the series is something he is used to, but it has made it harder to distribute. |
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05-06-22 | Heat -135 v. 76ers | 79-99 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 76ers are back home and desperate for a turnaround in Philadelphia. Any rally from a 2-0 series deficit must happen without MVP candidate Joel Embiid. With the Miami Heat in control of the best-of-seven Eastern Conference semifinals, Philadelphia officially ruled out Embiid with myriad battle wounds from the 76ers' first-round series win over Toronto. The Sixers practiced on Thursday before the verdict came later in the night: Embiid is a no-go. "They're coming home. Obviously, they are in an 0-2 hole, so I do expect him to play," Heat forward Bam Adebayo said before the injury report was released. Sixers coach Doc Rivers had "no update" to Embiid's status on Thursday and had only seen his franchise centerpiece via FaceTime in recent days. Rivers said Embiid is still in concussion protocol, but has "hurdles to clear" with his other injuries as well. Embiid has an orbital fracture and a torn ligament in his thumb. His return, even at less than full strength, might put a spring in Philly's step. But that bounce will not come until at least Game 4, putting the onus on the rest of the usual supporting cast to play starring role without the All-Star in the middle. |
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05-01-22 | Warriors -130 v. Grizzlies | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Golden State Warriors are looking to re-create their postseason magic, which included five consecutive NBA Finals appearances from 2015 to 2019. The Memphis Grizzlies are new to the scene, coming off their first playoff series win in seven years. The second-seeded Grizzlies and third-seeded Warriors will showcase youthful energy versus veteran experience when the teams tip off in Game 1 of their best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal series Sunday in Memphis. Golden State is coming off a 4-1 series win over the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs. The Warriors won all three games on their home court and split a pair of games on the road. Stephen Curry is averaging 28.0 points in five games during the postseason. He is shooting 50 percent (46 of 92) from the field and 40.4 percent (19 of 47) from beyond the arc. The series will pit Warriors head coach Steve Kerr against Grizzlies head coach Taylor Jenkins. Kerr has an 81-29 career record in the playoffs with three NBA championships, while Jenkins is 5-6 in the postseason. |
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04-26-22 | Pelicans +7 v. Suns | 97-112 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After securing the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, the Phoenix Suns are headed home in an unexpected situation with the No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans in their first-round playoff series: tied 2-2 entering Game 5. The best-of-seven series has turned into a best-of-three series starting tonight in Phoenix. The Pelicans tied the series with a 118-103 home victory against the Suns on Sunday night. New Orleans held star guard Chris Paul to four points on 2-of-8 shooting. He had 11 assists, but didn't attempt a free throw. Paul was without his backcourt mate, All-Star Devin Booker, who strained his right hamstring in Game 2 and averaged 26.8 points per game on the regular season. He is not expected to return this series. Additionally, consider that the Pelicans are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games. |