Steve Merril Fighting Totals Picks
Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
07-12-20 |
Jorge Masvidal v. Kamaru Usman OVER 4.5 |
|
0-5 |
Win
|
105 |
21 h 25 m |
Show
|
Gilbert Burn's loss is Jorge Masvidal's gain. Kamaru Usman (16-1) has more to lose in this fight, especially since he was preparing for Gilbert Burns and now has only one week to get ready for Jorge Masvidal (35-13) who is a completely different type of fighter. Look for both fighters to be a more cautious than normal which should help this bout go the full distance. Kamaru Usman has good wrestling skills to take this fight to the ground and grind out the clock. Usman hasn't been stopped since 2008 and his last four fights have all gone the full distance. 9* Play OVER the total.
|
06-27-20 |
Dan Hooker v. Dustin Poirier OVER 2.5 |
|
0-5 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
|
This main event fight has a good chance of going the distance for a full five rounds, so there is excellent value with the Over. Dustin Poirier (25-6) has a powerful punch and definite finishing power, but Dan Hooker (20-8) is four inches taller with a substantial three inch reach advantage, so Hooker should be able to keep his distance tonight and avoid any early trouble. Hooker does not possess the same finishing power, and his only chance is to draw this fight out and hope for a decision win. Both of these fighters are capable of a five-round battle as Hooker/Felder and Poirier/Holloway both went a full 25-minutes. 10* Play OVER the total.
|
06-20-20 |
Alexander Volkov v. Curtis Blaydes UNDER 2.5 |
|
0-5 |
Loss |
-120 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
These are two powerful fighters with plenty of knockout and finishing abilities, so it is very unlikely that this fight goes the distance tonight. Look for both fighters to come out swinging and looking for a quick finish. Alexander Volkov (31-7) has a 3-inch height advantage, but Curtis Blaydes (13-2) is heavier and long as both fighters have an equal 80-inch reach. Volkov has publicly said this fight will not last long as he plans on coming out hard and finishing Blaydes early. However, Blaydes has plenty of power himself, and also possesses dangerous knockout potential.
9* Play UNDER the total.
|
05-30-20 |
Gilbert Burns v. Tyron Woodley OVER 4.5 |
|
5-0 |
Win
|
155 |
27 h 27 m |
Show
|
Some sportsbooks have Over 3.5 +100, while other sportsbooks have a higher payout with Over 4.5 +145 to +155 range. Both offer good value as this five-round main event fight has a good chance of going the full distance in Las Vegas tonight. Both fighters have strong ground games with wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu. The smaller 25-foot octagon (compared to the normal 30-foot cage) will make it even more likely that the majority of this match takes place on the ground which will slow the pace and keep the clock moving. Tyron Woodley is 38-years old, so he will be cautious and smart tonight and he will look to wear down Gilbert Burns. Tyron Woodley has seen 4 of his past 5 fights go the distance, and it is likely to happen again tonight in this match.
9* Play OVER total rounds (Woodley/Burns).
|
05-16-20 |
Alistair Overeem v. Walt Harris UNDER 1.5 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
130 |
17 h 25 m |
Show
|
Alistair Overeem is a legend in this sport, but he has been knocked out 12 times since 2006. Not good when fighting an opponent in Harris who has all 13 wins coming by knockout and has knocked out 3 of his last 4 opponents, with a no contest in the other match. It is hard to see this fight lasting more than 7 1/2 minutes between these two powerful heavyweight strikers, so there is value with the UNDER 1.5 rounds, especially at a nice plus-money underdog price. 9* Play UNDER the total.
|