Northern Arizona vs Northern Colorado 
4% Best Bet on Northern Colorado minus the points 

NCU is 14-3 ATS when taking on an opponent that is averaging 14 or fewer forced turnovers per game in games played in the second half of each of the last three seasons; 27-14 ATS for full seasons. NAU is just 1-7 ATS this season in games lined between 140 and 149.5 points and 80-112 ATS over the last 25 seasons when playing their second game in three days.  

NAU head coach Burcar is a money-burning 9-18 ATS with the total between 140 and 149.5 points and just 12-22 ATS playing with revenge. This past Saturday NCU took to the road and defeated NAU 74-71, but failed to cover the number as 5.5 point-favorites. 

Arizona vs Arizona State 

4% best bet on Arizona minus the points.  I believe the market is more likely to see bets being placed on ASU getting double digits following their shocking triple overtime win over then-No.3 UCLA Saturday. So, consider betting 50% of your normal bet size right away and then look at the market after 5 EST and add the remaining 50%, hopefully at a lower price tag. 

ASU is 8-21 ATS when taking on an excellent ball handling team that is averaging 14 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons. ASU is 5-14 ATS in games lined with a total between 140 and 149.5 points. Arizona is 8-1 ATS in games lined with a total between 140 and 149 points this season. ASU is 25-44 ATS when priced as a double-digit underdog over the last 25 seasons.  

Phoenix vs Chicago 
4% bet on the Chicago Bulls 

Bulls are coming off a 119-108 home loss to the 76ers, in which Embiid scored 40 points. He was not the high scorer in the game as DeMar DeRozan scored 45 points including 9 rebounds and 7 assists. The Bull have been playing without forward Zach Levine, who is suffering from back spasms. I do expect the Bulls to bounce back from the loss Sunday and get the ATS win tonight. They are 19-7 SU, 17-9 ATS for 65% winning bets in their home games this season. 

Here is a highly profitable and consistent NBA betting system that has earned a 74-40 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Bet on teams that have exceeded the total by at least 6 points in each of their last five games and now facing a conference opponent. Plus, if our team (Bulls) is playing on back-to-back nights, they improve to 13-6 ATS for 68.4% winning bets. 

Miami vs Washington 
4% best bet on Washington plus the points 

Wizards are 43-22 ATS 67% in home games taking on a guest that is averaging at least 23 assists per game in games played over the last three seasons. Wizards are a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 95 or fewer points in their previous game in games played over the last two seasons. On Saturday, the Wizards lost badly 95-80 as 8-point dogs to the juggernaut Phoenix Suns.  

From the predictive models there is a high probability that the Wizards will get at least 48 rebounds. In past games, the Wizards are 7-2 ATS this season and 31-13 ATS the last three seasons when they have had 48 or more boards. 

UNC-Wilmington vs Hofstra 
4% best bet on Hofstra minus the points.  

Hofstra is 25-12 ATS for 68% winning bets when taking on an opponent with a winning record in games played over the last three seasons. They are 26-12 ATS following a game in which they made at least 78% of their free throw attempts and 33-16 ATS coming off a home win and scoring 85 or more points.  

Milwaukee vs LA Clippers 

4% Best Bet on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points 

This simple to use NBA betting system has earned an outstanding 37-12 for 77% winning bets ATS record over the last 25 seasons and has not lost ATS over the past five seasons. Bet on road favorites in a non-conference matchup that is facing a host that is coming off a win of not more than three points over a divisional foe. Over the last 10 seasons, this betting angle has produced an incredible 13-2 ATS record good for 87% winning bets.  

Atlanta vs Dallas 

4% bet on the Atlanta Hawks plus the points. 

The following is a money-making betting system that has earned a 55-28 ATS record good for 66% winning bets over the last five seasons. Bet on losing record teams that have won five or six of their past seven games and in a matchup with the line between the 3’s. Plus, if our team involved in this matchup is the road team, they improve to 11-2 SU and ATS for 85% winning tickets. 

Here is a second supporting algorithm that has done quite well over the last five seasons sporting a 50-30 ATS record and 64% winning tickets. Bet on teams that are lined within the 3’s and are coming off a double-digit road loss and now taking on a host that they defeated in their last matchup. 

Monmouth vs Quinnipiac 
2:00 EST 
4% bet on the Monmouth Hawks minus the points. 

Betting on road favorites including pick-em that are coming off win of three or fewer points and facing a shot that has allowed 75 or more points in three consecutive games has earned a 42-19 ATS record for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

Monmouth is 7-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning record this season. Quinnipiac is 5-17 ATS in the second half of each of the last 10 seasons when facing an opponent with a win percentage between 60 and 80%.  

Quinnipiac’s defense has fallen completely apart over their last three games. They allowed 87 points in a 94-87 win over Marist, then lost their two previous games on the road 85-76 to Sienna and then 83-74 at St. Peters.  

Nebraska- Omaha vs North Dakota 
2:00 EST 
4% unit bets on Nebraska-Omaha plus the points. 

Nebraska is 6-0 ATS over the last two seasons facing solid free throw shooting teams making 72% or more and when the game occurred after game number 15.  

Nebraska is 15-5 ATS facing a suspect defense allowing opponents a 48% or higher shooting percentage. 

North Dakota is 0-6 ATS when facing a team with a losing record this season and 1-8 ATS the past two seasons facing a foe that is allowing 77 or more PPG.  

Towson State vs Northeastern 

2:00 EST 

4% on Northeastern plus the points 

Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have been beaten by the spread by 42 points in total spanning their last seven games and taking on a host that has been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points in total over their last three games has earned a 63-25 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last 25 seasons, 22-9 ATS over the last five seasons, and 10-5 over the last three seasons. 

Take the Northeastern Huskies 

Fordham vs St. Joes 

1:00 EST 
4-Unit Bets Bet on Fordham plus the points 

Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that has seen their last seven games play under by a total of 48 or more points and is now facing an opponent after their last three games went over the posted totals by a combined 30 points has earned a 74-41 ATS record for 64% winners over the last five seasons.  

Fordham is also 7-0 ATS in the second half of each of the last three seasons facing a team that averages 12 or fewer forced turnovers per game. 

Kentucky vs Kansas 

10-UNIT game of the Month on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points. 

There are monumental traditions in this matchup starting with the head coaches. Calipari got his start in NCAA coaching at Kansas under Larry Brown, even met his wife at Kansas. Bill Self has been the head coach of Kansas for 19 seasons and got his start as a graduate assistant the year after Calipari left Kansas. How fate sometimes knows exactly what IT is doing. Now, the two winningest programs in Division-1 history face off with only a three-game deficit separating Kentucky (2,343-732) and Kansas (2,340-873) 

Jayhawk OchaiAgbaji has established himself as one of the nation's top threats and is coming off a career-high 37 points in a double-overtime win Monday against No. 13 Texas Tech. He presents all sorts of matchup problems for the Wildcats tonight. Agbaji averages 21.3 points, and Christian Braun chips in 15.3. No other Jayhawks average double figures, which reflects their significant depth, a strength Self taps using different combinations. The many different combinations that Self uses throughout any game is impossible for an opposing coach to match even if they do have a strong bench.  

Wildcats are just 7-22 ATS in road games with a posted total ranging between 150 and 159.5 points and 5-15 ATS following three consecutive conference games. Jayhawks are 32-15-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of their last eight games and 68-36 ATS following a game in which they allowed 80 or more points and 33-16-1 ATS after allowing 85 or more points. Moreover, they are 42-24-2 ATS following a game in which both teams scored 80 or more points. In their previous game Kansas needed overtime to defeat Texas Tech 94-91.  

From my predictive models the following angles represent the projections for this game. Kentucky is just 24-55 ATS in road games allowing the host 47% or better shooting; 4-30 ATS 12% in road games allowing 80 to 86 points and 9-48 ATS 16% allowing 80 or more points in a road game. Kansas is 18-4-1 ATS 82% when scoring 80 or more points.  

Indiana vs Phoenix 
4% bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points. 

This is the 4th road game of their scheduled 5-game travel through the Western Conference. They defeated the Lakers 111-104 as 5.5-point dogs on Wednesday and then defeated the Warriors, who had almost all starters given the night off, 121-117 as 13.5-point dogs. The status of those starters was announced just prior to the tip and the market had a very small window of time to adjust. I think Phoenix will not bench any starters and will not overlook the Pacers tonight. 

Pacers are just 20-35 ATS facing teams that are making at least 37% of their three-point shot attempts spanning the last three seasons. Also, betting against underdogs that are coming off back-to-back upset wins has earned a 196-133-6 ATS record for 60% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and if the dog is playing their third or more consecutive road game installed as a double-digit underdog has seen our favorite earn a highly profitable 22-10 ATS record good for 69% winning bets.  

Chicago Bulls vs Dallas Mavericks 
4% bet on the Bulls minus the points 

Bet on road favorites that are taking on a host that led at the half of their last game by 20 or more points. This simple set of parameters has earned an outstanding 98-46-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the last 25 NBA seasons and is 12-6 ATS for 767% winners over the last five seasons. 

Dallas has been a money-losing 9-22 ATS in home games after winning their previous game on the road spanning the past three seasons. They are also a weak 4-15 ATS in home games and have covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games in games played over the last three seasons.  

Spurs vs 76ers 
5% (5-UNIT) best bet on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points.  

The 76ers are back to full strength and appear to have the COVID-19 problems that inflicted the team a month ago in their rearview mirrors. They have won five consecutive games and will looking to make it six straight tonight against the Spurs at the Wells Fargo Arena. 

Embiid, who recently was named the Eastern Conference Player of the Month, has at least 30 points in all five wins. The Spurs are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA, but this style works against them in a big way having to defend Embiid in the paint or out beyond the arc. Embiid has a complete all-around game going for him and his teammates and is simply unstoppable. 

The Spurs, Dejounte Murray came off the COVID-19 list and produced 22 points in the Spurs' 99-97 win over the Boston Celtics on Wednesday. Murray had been out for 10 days, including five games. The Spurs lost four consecutive games and failed to cover the spread in three of the four losses, while Murray was out. With Murray back in action, the market is giving us the opportunity to ’buy’ the 76ers at a cheap price and I see them winning this game by double-digits. 

From my predictive models, the 76ers are expected to score at least 110 points and have 14 or fewer turnovers. In past games in which the 76ers met or exceeded these measures, they went on to earn a 72-26 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons and when installed as a 4.5 to 9.5 point home favorite has produced a 37-1 SU record and 30-8 ATS record for 79% winning bets. Take the 76ers.  

76ers vs Nets 

The Nets got James Harden back on the roster late last week and his first two games were dominating and reminded me of his days with the Houston Rockets. However, the story now shifts with the probable return of KD to the lineup and how he and more importantly he and James will play together on the same court tonight. The Nets also got rotation players DeAndre' Bembry, Bruce Brown and James Johnson back over the weekend and LaMarcus Aldridge is also expected to play Thursday. The 76ers have been more at full strength in the past week then at any time over the past month.  

The line opened with the Nets priced as a 3.5-point home favorite and the news of KD’s return has seen a steam move to –5.5 points. The total opened at 217 and the news has since forced the market to move higher now at 222.5 points.  

Betting on teams fresh off a road win over a divisional foe and playing their third game in five days has produced a solid 23-10-1 ATS record for 70% winners over the last five seasons and 17-6 ATS over the last three seasons for 74% winners. 

Wizards vs Kings

10:00 EST 12-15

4-Unit best bet on the Wizards minus the points

Kings opened as 1-point favorites and now the market has moved three points through pick to make Wizards a 2-point favorite.  I fully agree with the market movement and so do my predictive models.

Betting on road teams that have lost five or more of their last seven games with a winning record on the season and facing a losing record team has done well earning a 33-9 ATS record good for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons. Wizards have lost five of the last six games and failed to cover in all but one of them. That lone game was a push in a 116-110 road loss at Indiana. Kings have lost three straight games and have a losing 11-17 record for the season.

Nebraska – Omaha vs UNLV

10:00 EST 12-15

4-Unit best bet on Nebraska – Omaha plus 19.5 points.

The bet is valid if Nebraska-Omaha (NOU) is a 17.5-point or greater underdog.

When is a nine-game losing streak a good thing? When the team we are betting is in a nine-game slide and there is a 77% ATS 25-year money-making machine supporting them. This angle has hit 77% ATS winners for the last 25 seasons on a 31-10 ATS record over the last 25 seasons and is 14-4 ATS over the last five seasons and is 4-0 ATS the past three seasons. Bet on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that have lost their last nine games in the month of December. The losing streak start in November, but the current game must be played in December.

Marshall vs Ohio University

7 EST 12-15

4-UNIT best bet on Marshall +3.5 points

Ohio is 1-8 ATS after scoring 60 or fewer points in their previous game spanning the last three seasons. Ohio is 19-44 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6.5 points. Marshall head coach D’Antoni is 12-4 ATS coming off a double-digit road win.

Take Marshall plus the points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns

9:00 ET. July 17, 2021

4-Unit Best bet on the Milwaukee Bucks plus the points

I like making these types of underdogs a combination wager comprised of 80% of your normal 4-UNIT bet size on the line and 20% more on the money line. Over the course of a season, the money line bet will outperform the spread-only wager.

From my predictive models, the Bucks are expected to shoot better, and have the better assist-to-turnover ratio over the Suns. In past games, in which the Bucks met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a remarkable 106-1 SU and 94-11-2 ATS for 90% winning bets over the last 3 seasons.

LA Clippers (56 - 33) At Phoenix (62 - 24)

Monday, 6/28/2021 9:00 PM

Western Conference - Conference Finals - Best Of 7 - Game 5

8-UNIT Best Bet on the Phoenix Suns minus the points

Betting on home favorites of 3 to 9 points and are coming off a game in which they held the opponent to 35% or worse shooting in games played over the last five seasons has earned a 31-6 SU record and 29-8 ATS for 78% winning bets. The UNDER is a solid 23-14 record for 62.2% wins. 

The predictive models and machine learning applications predict that Phoenix will score at least 112 points and make at least 85% of their free throws. In past home games, in which the Suns met or exceeded this pair of measures has produced a 22-11 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

Phoenix vs LA Clippers

Game – 4 of the Western Conference Finals

Saturday, 6/26/2021 9:00 PM EST

5- UNIT Best Bet on the Clippers using the money line.

Bet on home teams that are facing a foe that has covered 8 or more of their last 10 games and is playing only their 4th game in the past 10 games has earned a 26-14 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons and a remarkable 10-3 ATS for 77% in the playoffs. 

Phoenix is 4-16 ATS off a loss by 10 or more points to a divisional rival in games played over the last 3 seasons. 

From the predictive side of things, the Clippers are 50-11 ATS for 82% winning bets in home games when scoring 112 or more points and having a better 3-point shooting percentage than their opponent.  

Atlanta vs Milwaukee

8:30 PM EST, 6-25-21

NBA 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Milwaukee Bucks

Atlanta does not fare well against teams, like Milwaukee, who defend the perimeter to contest shots, and not look to clog the passing lanes looking for steals. The Hawks are just 8-21 ATS in road games when facing a team that averages 14 or fewer forced turnovers-per-game in games played over the last two seasons. 

Betting on favorites that are revenging a previous loss installed as a favorite of 7 or more points and is now facing an opponent that is coming off two or more upset wins has earned an outstanding 55-23 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets over the last 20 NBA seasons. When this situation has occurred in the playoffs, the record has been 20-6 SU, 17-9 for 65% ATS, and the UNDER 18-8. 

Bet the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points.

Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers

Game-5 Eastern Conference Playoffs

7:30 PM EST, June 16, 2021

4-unit Best Bet on the 76ers minus the points

Embiid is expected to play tonight and I recommend making this bet about 10-minutes prior to game time. Another option, which is what I will do, is bet 50% of my normal 4% amount at 4:00 ET and then look to add 25% in-game at 76ers +3.5 and then 25% 76ers at pick-em. Another in-game strategy is bet the 76ers line after the Hawks score 10 or more unanswered points. All of the these betting strategies are valid just for the first-half.

Atlanta shot 37% from the field in their 103-100 win in Game-4. Note that road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that shot less than 40% in the previous game which they won are just 10-34 SU and 17-27 ATS for 38% and 27-17 UNDER. Not a recommendation for the UNDER on my part.

Philadelphia will get it done in game-5 no matter how many minutes Embiid plays tonight.

My machine learning models predict that the 76ers will score at least 117 points. The implied final score based on a 224 point total and the 76ers favored by 7 points is a 76ers 116-108 home win. In past home games in which the 76ers scored at least 115 points and had more fast break points than their guest did has earned an incredible 42-3 SU record, 37-8 ATS mark for 82% winning bets and 32-13 to the OVER.

Milwaukee vs Brooklyn         

Saturday, 6/5/2021 7:30 PM

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Brooklyn Nets

Let’s start with a betting angle that has earned a solid 64-33 record for 66% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on home teams (Nets) in a matchup of winning record teams and now facing an opponent has covered the spread in their last three games installed as a favorite.

The Nets are 30-14-1 ATS when facing an opponent that is making at least 46% of their shot attempts on the season in this season. They are also 35-16-2 ATS this season when facing a team that is scoring at least 112 PPG (League Average).

The machine learning applications predict that the Nets will score at least 115 points in this game. The Bucks are just 15-33 SU and 7-41 ATS in road games and have allowed at least 115 points spanning games played over the last three seasons.

BROOKLYN (50 - 25) at BOSTON (38 - 38)          

Sunday, 5/30/2021 7:00 PM

NBA 4-UNIT Best Bet on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points

Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points and with that opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points has earned a highly profitable 42-11 SU and 37-14-2 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last 20 seasons.

Brookyln is 32-17 ATS (+1370 per $100 bet) when facing teams scoring at or above the NBA League average of 112 or more points-per-game this season. Boston is just 4-18 ATS (-1550 per $100 bet) when facing teams who average 7 or fewer steals-per-game this season. Plus, Boston is just 7-22 ATS in home games facing defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers-per-game in the second half of each of the last three seasons.

Take the Brooklyn Nets minus the points.

SATURDAY, MAY 29TH, 2021 9:30 PM ET

Game 3: Series tied 1-1

Jazz @ Grizzlies

FedExForum, Memphis, TN

8-UNIT Best Bet on the Utah Jazz minus the points

This series is tied at 1-game a piece, but Utah is clearly the much better team in this matchup with the Grizzlies. What I like most, is that the Jazz have produced a 0.31 free throw to field goal attempt ratio. This means that they are taking 31% of the total field goals attempted over the first two games, and means they are getting to the charity stripe at a high rate. The Jazz will look to get this ratio to an evem higher level, which puts the Grizzlies in potential foul trouble in the first half. The Grizzlies are not nearly as deep as the Jazz and it will be a monumental advantage to the Jazz if they make more free throws than the Grizzlies.

From the predictive side of things, the ML models project that the Jazz will shoot at least 48% from the field and make at least 20 free throws. Over the past three seasons, playoff teams that have met or erxceeded these performance measures have earned a 48-8 SU record and 42-12 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the last three playoff seasons.

Bet the Utah Jazz as a 8-UNIT Best Bet minus the points.

SATURDAY, MAY 29TH, 2021 4:00 PM ET

Game 4: DEN leads series 2-1

Nuggets @ Trail Blazers

Moda Center, Portland, OR

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Denver Nuggets plus the points and sproinkle a bit more on the money line.

Denver, despite its injuries, took back home court with a win in Game 3 Thursday night in Portland. The Trail Blazers went ice-cold from beyomd the arc in their 120-115 loss, shooting 14-for-45, and the Nuggets took advantage by having made the defensive adjustments they did for Gasme-3. I do not see Portland being able to offset the adjustments that Denver made in game-3 and they are expected to lose this game at home. With a Game-4 win, Denver then will have a home elimination game for Game-5.

Denver has gotten the usual stellar performance from MVP favorite Nikola Jokic, but it has been the role players who have given the Nuggets an edge in the series. Campazzo nearly had a triple-double in Game 3 (11 points, eight rebounds and eight assists) and took a borderline charge on Nurkic, who fouled out in the fourth quarter. Campazzo is a 30-year-old NBA rookie who has been thrust into a starting role with injuries to Murray, Will Barton and PJ Dozier, and he has responded extremely well.

Denver has excellent ball movement and Portland is just 18-32 ATS in home games when facing teams averaging 23 or more assists-per-game over the last two seasons. Denver is 12-4 ATS in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more 3 straight games this season. Portland is 4-12 ATS in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more over two straight games this season.

From the predictive side of my machine learning apps, Denver is expected to score at least 115 points in this game. In road games installed as an underdog, the Nuggets have earned a 10-7 SU record and 13-4 ATS record good for 77% winning bets over the last three seasons.

Bet the Denver Nuggets as a 4-UNIT best bet plus the points and sprinkle a bit on the money line too.

WASHINGTON (35 - 40) at PHILADELPHIA (50 - 23)    

Wednesday, 5/26/2021 7:00 PM

Game-2 of the First Round

10-UNIT Best Bet on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points.

The 76ers are a solid 22-13-1 ATS in home games and facing a team that is averaging 112 or more PPG in games played over the last two seasons. Wizards are 18-35 ATS in road tilts after having lost two of their last three games spanning the last three seasons. 76ers are a highly profitable 16-6 ATS in home games coming off an ATS loss and with a total of 220 or more points over the last two seasons.

A lot of negative news out about how poorly he played on the offensive end down the stretch. He did have 15 rebounds and 15 assists BUT did go 0-for-6 from the charity stripe. However, the 76ers are 55-38-2 for 59% following a game in which Ben Simmons made no more than one free throw. The 76ers are 25-14 ATS for 64% winning bets coming off a game in which Ben Simmons scored fewer than 10 points and 16-8 ATS in home games coming off a game in which Ben Simmons scored less than 10 points. 76ers are a remarkable 21-4 ATS for 84% winning bets in home games and coming off a home game in which Ben Simmons had 10 or more assists. Including, 14-1 SU and ATS coming a home game getting at least 10 assists and now his team is at home installed as a favorite of 4.5 to 9.5 points.

My models are predicting that the 76ers will score at least 118 points and make at least 33% of their 3-point shot attempts. In past games, when the 76ers met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned an outstanding 43-4 SU and 33-14 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past three seasons.

Take the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points. 

Washington Wizards vs Philadelphia 76ers

1:00 PM EST, May 23, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Philadelpphia 76ers

This is the first of many Best Bets in NBA, MLB, and the NHL for Sunday. So, please stop back to get the complete card including a top-rated 5-Unit Game of the Month. All bets will be released by Noon ET.

Here are a few of the situational angles that support the 76ers. They are 21-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season; 24-11 ATS in home games facing faster-paced teams averaging 88 or more shots-per-game over the last two seasons.

Betting on home favorites of 2.5 to 9.5 points that are hosting a team they previously defeated by double-digits and with that opponent coming off a double-digit home win has earned a 140-91-5 ATS record good for 60% winning bets over the last 25 seasons.

From my predictive models, the 76ers are expected to score at least 120 points and have the better assists-to-turnover ratio in this game. In past home games, when the 76ers have met or exceeded these performance measures, has produced a 35-12 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets
Saturday, 5/22/2021 8:00 PM

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points

The Celtics lost all three games to the Nets this season and none of the losses had the star trio of Harden, Durant, and Irving on the floor at the same time. They will be playing only the ninth game together and have played just 203 total minutes together in games played this season. The Celtics are without their best player in Jaylen Brown and all signals point to a best double-digit win.

Betting on home teams that have posted three consecutive games with a 2.5 or better assist-to-turnover ratio and facing an opponent that has a season-to-date assist-to-turnover ratio below 2.0 has earned an outstanding 18-9-1 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last three seasons.

The betting lines ikmply a 119-111 Nets win and the predictive models that I have developed over more than two decades see a high probability that the Nets will score at least 117 points in this game. When scoring 117 or more points in home games, the Nets are 40-10 SU, 34-15-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last three seasons. When allowing 117 or more points in road games, the Celtics are a horrid 3-26 SU, 4-24-1 ATS for 14% in games played over the last three seasons.

MIAMI (40 - 32) at MILWAUKEE (46 - 26)

Saturday, 5/22/2021 2:00 PM

Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 1

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Miami Heat plus the points.

I like making this a combination bet comprised of 80% of your normal bet size on the line and 20% on the money line.

Milwaukee is just 13-23 ATS when facing a good shooting team making >=46% of their shots this season; 5-18 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Heat is 24-12 ATS against Central division opponents over the last two seasons.

The predictive models point to the Heat scoring at least 112 points in this game. The Bucks are 17-38-2 ATS in home games when allowing 112 or more points over the last three seasons. In road games, the Heat are 36-11-1 ATS when scoring 112 or more points spanning the last three seasons and a perfect 4-0 ATS in playoff games.

WASHINGTON (34 - 38) at BOSTON (36 - 36)

Tuesday, 5/18/2021 9:00 PM

Eastern Conference - Play-In Game - Game 1

4-UNIT Best Bet on the Washington Wizards

The Boston Celtics ended the regular season in a deep slump, while the Washington Wizards soared to the finish line. Their paths will converge Tuesday night when the Celtics host the Wizards in the play-in round. The winner will land the No. 7 seed for the Eastern Conference playoffs, while the loser will get another attempt to play their way in on Thursday night.

The Celtics (36-36), who finished seventh in the Eastern Conference, need to raise their level now as they struggled down the stretch with five losses in six games and nine of their past 13. They also lost standout guard Jaylen Brown (wrist) for the rest of the season. He averaged 24.7 points per game and losing Brown's firepower hurts even more when the opponent trots out Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook as the starting backcourt.

Washington is 18-6 ATS facing teams allowing 111+ points-per-game and 2nd half of this season. Boston is 10-22 ATS in home games facing teams - scoring 111+ points-per-game - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.

Washington 31-16 ATS in up-tempo games where they attempt 88 or more shots this season.

Memphis vs Golden State
Sunday, 5/16/2021 3:30 PM
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Golden State Warriors

The clubs enter the game with identical 38-33 records, tied for eighth in the West, meaning the winner will earn the No. 8 seed and a road game Wednesday against the seventh-seeded club (either the Los Angeles Lakers or Portland), while the loser will host 10th-place San Antonio as the No. 9 seed.

Warriors are 17-8 ATS wehen facing a team that averages at least 88 shot attempts-per-game this season; 16-7 ATS when facing teams allowing more than the NBA League average of 112 PPG this seasdon.

Betting on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after successfully covering the spread in two oir more consecutive games, and with both teams in the matchup having win percentages between 50 and 60% on the season has earned a 57-28 ATS record good for 68% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Minnesota vs Utah
9:00 PM ET, April 24, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on the Utah Jazz minus the points.

We are on a double-digit favorite tonight in the NBA action which is rare, but always reinforced by a multitude of facts. I will detail just a few of these facts that support Utah to win this game by at least 18 points.

Minnesota is just 13-26 ATS when facing a strong opponent that is outscoring their opponents by at least three or more points-per-game on the season; 16-27 ATS when facing a team averaging 111 or more PPG (NBA League Average is 111 PPG) this season. Utah is an outstanding 14-3-1 ATS when facing a team with a terrible defensive presence that is allowing opponents to make 48% or more of their shots from the field in games played this season; 21-9 ATS when facing a poor team that has been poutscored by their opponents by at least six PPG on the season.

From the complete analytical research, I am expecting the Jazz to score at least 115 points have the better, and more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio. In past home games in which Utah met or exceeded these performance measures has seen them go on to an outstanding 21-3 ATS record for 88% winning bets over the last three seasons.

Bet the Utah Jazz as a 4-UNIT Best Bet minus the points.

Toronto vs New York
1:00 PM EST, April 24, 2021

4-UNIT best Bet on the Toronto Raptors plus the points or the money line.

The betting line is at pick-em for the game at Madison Square Garden, so simply bet either the line or the money line with the lowest vig.  Shop around and you will get a line that is not paying more than -110 vig.

Toronto has suddenly won four consecutive games and are playing at a high level and facing a New York Knicks team that has been white hot, but vulnerable to regression in this matchup.

In this matchup, I think you will see Toronto score at least 110 points and make more 3-pointers than the Knicks. In past road games in which Toronto met or exceeded these measures has seen them go on to earn an outstanding 55-8 SU, and 49-13-1 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past seasons.

Bet the Toronto Raptors as a 4-Unit best Bet

New Orleans ve NY Knicks

1:00 PM EST, April 17, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on the New Orleans Pelicans plus the points.

Currently, the betting line has the Pelicans installed as a 1-point underdogs and there is positively no value in betting the money line, unless you are getting even-money or as in the case at Pinnacle (+102). So, if unless you are getting +100 or better money, stick with the 1-point spread.

Here is a great NBA Betting system that has earned a 92-56-2 ATS record over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team that lost the matchup to the current opponent, and is coming off two consecutive upset losses installed as favorites. Filtering only games that are lined within 3.5 points on either side of pick-em returns a 28-16 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Philadelphia vs Cleveland
7:00 PM EST, April 1, 2021

4% Best Bet on the 76ers -10 points

The 76ers are tied on top of the Eastern Conference standings with the Brooklyn Nets. They have lost 3 consecutive games on two occasions this season and will avert a third such occurrence tonight. They are ending their 6-game road trip and will look to return home with the possibility of Joel Embiid being able to return to the lineup.

Cleveland is 7-19 ATS when facing a winning record team this season. The 76ers are an excellent rebounding team. Cleveland is just 11-30 ATS when facing a team that is outrebounding their opponents by an average 3 or more per game. 76ers head coach Doc Rivers is 53-27 ATS for 67% winning bets in his career following a game in which his team had been outrebounded by 15 or more boards.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that the 76ers are 66-9 SU and 57-17-1 ATS for 77% winning bets when scoring 111 or more points (league scoring average the last three seasons) and having the better assist-to-turnover ratio than their opponent spanning the last three seasons.

Philadelphia vs Denver
9:00 PM EST, March 30, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Philadelphia 76ers

This is a MONEY LINE Betting System that has posted a losing record of 103-182 for 36% winning money line bets, but has made the $100 bettor a profit of $7,777 over the last 5 seasons.
The system has averaged a +245 underdog wager.

Bet on road underdogs using the money line that is facing a host, who is outscoring their opponents by a minimum of 3 PPG, and are coming off three consecutive games in which 220 or more points were scored.

If the DOG covered the spread, they the game straight-up 54% of the time.

Let me know if you have any questions and TY for putting it together.

So, I recommend betting this game using 80% of your normal 4% bet size on the spread and then the 20% remaining bet on the money line.

76ers are 18-5-1 ATS when facing a solid shooting team making at least 46.5% of their shots in game splayed this season. They are also 19-10-2 ATS when facing teams that are averaging 110 or more PPG this season. Since February 21, the 76ers are 11-1 in this role.

USC vs Gonzaga
Elite-8 NCAA 2021
4% Best Bet on USC +8.5 points

I am betting Houston at +500 to win the Championship. I also betting USC at +1400 to win the Championship as an alternative sprinkle of USC using the money line in this game. Far more bang for the buck doing it this way.

Following game number 15 of the regular season, betting on Neutral court UNDERDOGS that are good defensive teams allowing 63-67 PPG and now facing an elite offensive team scoring at least 77 PPG and coming off a win by 15 or more points has earned a 24-5 ATS record good for 83% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Cleveland vs Utah

9:00 PM EST, March 29, 2021

4% best bet on the Cleveland Cavs +15.5 points

Betting on double-digit underdogs, after game number 41, in a matchup of the tale of two teams, with the favorite having outscored their opponents by 7 or more PPG, and the underdog being outscored by 7 or more PPG, has earned a highly profitable 63-45-2 ATS for 58.3% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and 21-9 ATS for 75% last five seasons. 

Atlanta vs Denver

9:00 PM EST, March 28, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Atlanta Hawks +4.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. 

I plan to bet this game on the Hawks with 85% of my 4% bet size on the line and then 15% of my 4% bet size on the money line.  

These two teams last played in Atlanta, who defeated Denver 123-115 as 2.5-point home underdogs. Denver is 2-10 ATS revenging a road loss this season. They are also just 3-12 ATS in home games after scoring 100 or more points in back-to-back games spanning the past two seasons. 

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Atlanta is 47-15 and 46-14- 2 ATS for 77% winning bets, in road games, scoring 111 or more points, and had previously defeated the opponent at home.

Florida State vs Michigan
Sweet 16, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
5:00 PM EST, March 28, 2021

4% Best Bet on Florida State +2 points or the money line +115 or higher.

I will be playing this bet using the money line and it will be graded on the site as a money line play. The line has drifted to the 2-point price level and if you believe FSU is going to win, then the money line offers better value at +115. If the money line is at +110, for instance, then consider a combination wager of FSU +1.5/+2 points for 50% of your normal 4% bet amount and then another 50% betting the money line at +110.

In the NCAA Tournament action dating back to the 2009 season (2010 March Madness), betting on underdogs of four or fewer points, that have averaged 72 or fewer possessions-per-game, have earned a 138-88-1 ATS record for 61% winning bets. This system has earned the $100 bettor a profit of $4,332 or a highly profitable 18% return-on-investment (ROI). So far in the NCAA Tournament, this system has done well with a 9-5 ATS for 64% winning bets and a nice 24.2 % ROI.

FSU is 21-5-1 ATS when dressed as an underdog of six or fewer points dating back to the 2005 season. FSU head coach Hamilton relishes this underdog role sporting a 12-3 ATS record playing on neutral courts as an underdog of three or fewer points and 19-4 ATS as an underdog of six or fewer points.

Syracuse vs Houston

Sweet 16 Round

Hinkle Fieldhouse

9:55 PM EST, March 27, 2021

4% Best Bet on Syracuse +6.5 points

I like a red-hot Syracuse team that once again is proving the nay-sayers wrong. Jim Boeheim is one of the best coaches All-Time and has the Syracuse 2-3 zone defense holding their first two opponents to less than 36% shooting.  Even though, Houston has had many days to prepare for this defense, facing it in a LIVE game is far more different than studying game films. 

Houston is certainly an elite team, but in order to attack a 2-3 zone, an offense needs a strong post presence. Houston does not have that strong scoring threat in the post, and I see Syracuse doing a great job contesting every 3-point shot attempt. 

Boeheim is 10-1 ATS when his teams have been seeded 9 through 12 in the NCAA Tournament. Houston is 1-9 ATS in games away from home following a low-scoring game in which 125 or fewer points were scored spanning the last three seasons. 

Portland vs Orlando
8:00 ET, March 26, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Portland Trailblazers

Let’s start with a highly profitable betting system that supports making a bet on Portland. The system has earned a 78-20 SU record and 65-31-2 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are to bet on road favorites of 3.5 or more points that are coming off back-to-back games in which they allowed 100 or more points and are now facing a host that is coming off a win of three or fewer points. Plus, if the host has lost 65% or more of their games, then the record improves to 25-10-1 ATS for 70% winning bets.

The last time Orlando played Portland ended with a 106-97 road and ATS loss on February 9. Orlando is just 10-31 ATS revenging a road loss in games played over the last two seasons.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Portland is a highly profitable 33-9 SU and 31-9-2 ATS for 78% winning bets when scoring 111 or more points and having the better assists-to-turnover ratio in road games played over the last five seasons.

Dallas vs Minnesota
8:00 PM EST, March 24, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Dallas Mavericks –8 points

Dallas is beginning to look like the playoff-bound team I thought they would be before the season started. Doncic is averaging career-highs scoring 29 PPG and adding 9.2 assists-per-game. However, it has been their improved defense recently that has driven to their 22-19 record.

Minnesota is 35-64 ATS when facing an opponent that is averaging at least 18 or more 3-point shot attempts-per-game over the last two seasons and the same record facing opponents that make at least six 3-point shots-per-game.

Betting on road favorites that are coming off a monster win of 20 or more points and facing an opponent that has scored and allowed 100 or more points in each of their last three games has earned a 46-19-2 ATS record for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons, is 7-3 in the 2020 season, and has gone 4-1 ATS in March.

Philadelphia vs Golden State
10:00 PM EST, March 23, 2021
4% Best bet on the 76ers -4 points

Although Stephen Curry and his brother, Seth, have each missed the passed two games and are considered questionable to play Wednesday, they are on the schedule to go head-to-head Tuesday night for the 14th time in their NBA careers when the Golden State Warriors host the Philadelphia 76ers.

Meanwhile, big men James Wiseman and Joel Embiid will have to wait on their first duel. However, the 76ers have played very well without Embiid in the lineup and is projected to return to action next week.

The 76ers are coming off a 1-point POT road win against the New York Knicks. They are installed as favorites in this matchup. Betting on favorites coming off a road overtime win and now are installed as road favorite have earned a solid 31-15-1 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. If the road favorite, which is the 765ers, has won 60% or more of their games, the record soars to 18-7 for 72% winning bets.

Oklahoma vs Gonzaga
2:40 PM EST, March 22, 2021
NCAA Round-2, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

4% Best bet on Gonzaga –14 points

Betting on neutral court favorites in a matchup involving the favorite being an elite offense averaging 77 or more PPG and are coming off two consecutive games scoring 85 or more points, and facing an average D-1 defense that is allowing between 67 and 75 PPG has earned a highly profitable 74-32 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Gonzaga is 27-0, 13-12 ATS, and is averaging 92.3 PPG, 45.7 PPG in the first half, and making 55% of their shot attempts. Despite playing at the 7th-fastest pace of play in the nation, their defense holds up extremely well and allows just 69 PPG, 31.5 PPG in the first half, and 41.4% shooting.

Oklahoma is 16-10 SU, 13-12 ATS, and average 74.7 PPG, 34.2 PPG in the first half, and shooting a below average 44% from the field. Their defense has allowed 69 PPG, 31.5 PPG in the first half, and 42% opponent shooting. However, over their last five games, they have regressed and average 70.6 PPG, 29.4 PPF in the first half, and make 43% of their shots. On the defensive side, they have allowed 71.6 PPG, 33.6 first half PPG, and allowed 45% shooting over their last five games.  So, Gonzaga is playing well, and may not have even peeked yet, and now facing an Oklahoma team that is struggling a bit at both ends of the court.

Gonzaga has shot 50% or better from the field in all but TWO of their 27 games and both of those games they shot 49.2% from the field. They have outscored their opponents by 23.7 PPG, and have the fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.543. They also have the 21st-best defense assist-to-turnover ratio at 0.755. Oklahoma ranks 128th with a 0.929 opponent assist-to-turnover. So, how in the world is Oklahoma going to slow Gonzaga’s constant offensive attack? I do not think they will or can even on their best day.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Gonzaga is expected to score at least 87 points. When Gonzaga has scored 80 or more points, they are 45-26-1 ATS, and when scoring 87 or more points, they are 41-15-1 ATS for 73% winning bets.

Oregon State vs Oklahoma State
NCAA Second Round, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
9:40 PM EST, March 21, 2021
4% Best bet on the Oklahoma State Cowboys – 6 points

Oklahoma State is a perfect 7-0 ATS since the 15-game of this season facing teams that were averaging 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game. Oregon State is a money-burning 7-22 ATS coming off a four or more-game win streak spanning the last ten seasons. Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS after having won four or five of their last six games this season. Oklahoma State is 8-2 ATS on neutral courts and having won five or more of their last six games.

From the machine learning applications, we are expecting Oklahoma State to shoot between 48 and 53% from the field and to attempt 57 to 64 shots. They are 9-1 ATS when they have met these performance measures.

Oral Roberts vs Florida
7:45 PM EST, March 21, 2021
8-UNIT best bet on the Florida Gators

Oral Roberts pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Tournament history in their win over Ohio State. The following betting system reveals how difficult it will be for them to pull off another giant-killing upset win. This system has earned a 44-15-1 ATS record for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons and requires us to bet on neutral court favorites that are from a Major D-1 Conference and facing a team that is from a Mid-Major Conference and that is also playing their second neutral court game in the past three days.

A second betting system has earned a 51-19 ATS record for 73% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing a team that is on a four or more-game win streak and are seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament.

Florida head coach White is 7-0 ATS when facing an opponent that has been getting outrebounded by four or more rebounds-per-game. He is also 13-3-1 SATS away from Gainesville when having failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games.

Wisconsin vs Baylor
2:40 PM EST, March 21, 2021

4% best bet on Wisconsin +6.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. I will be betting this game with 85% of my 4% bet size using the spread and the remaining 15% on the money line. I had thought that UNC would advance to this game against Baylor, but Wisconsin and their strong 3-point shooting present far more problems for Baylor.

Wisconsin’s Davison had 29 points in the 85-62 route of UNC. They had only seven turnovers and strong ball-handling is a definite requirement in order to take down Baylor. Given that the fourth seed Purdue and two seed Ohio State both lost, the winner of this game will have the easiest remaining schedule to win the region and advance to the Final-Four.

Betting on neutral court underdogs that are coming off a win of 15 or more-points, have a solid defense allowing 67 or fewer PPG, and are now facing an excellent offensive team averaging 75 or more PPG has earned a 25-5 ATS record over the last five seasons.

In the NCAA Tournament teams that are allowing 67 or fewer PPG and facing an opponent that is averaging 75 or more PPG have earned a 176-124 ATS record for 59% winning bets.

Loyola-Illinois vs Illinois
12:10 PM EST, March 21, 2021
Round 2 NCAA Tournament, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN

4% Best bet on Illinois –7 points

Betting on neutral court favorites that are coming off a 20-point or more blowout win and now facing an opponent coming off three consecutive double-digit wins has earned a 37-14 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Illinois has tremendous balance and bench strength that will wear down the Loyola team over the course of the game, especially the second half of this matchup. Illinois overwhelmed Drexel with a two-man punch of All-Big Ten center Kofi Cockburn and All-American Ayo Dosunmu. Cockburn had 18 points, including a run of eight in a row, and Dosunmu awakened from a slow start to chip in 17 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and three steals in the first-round victory.

Illinois has been near-perfect on the offensive end during their recent surge and are making the correct ball screen reads and as a result all five players are getting high-percentage looks. They share the ball, and you can see the fun and energy they bring to the court. Four of the five Illini starters scored in double-digits in the win over Drexel.

Illinois took only seven 3-point shots among the total of 63 shot attempts against Drexel. You can bet they will look to pound the paint and take as many mid-range jumpers as possible. They will also look to speed up the game right from the opening tip and take Loyola out of their plodding pace that ranks 346th nationally. Illinois has the fifth most difficult schedule and are currently 7th in positive team momentum. Loyola had the 140th toughest schedule and rank 284th in momentum. In fact, Loyola’s momentum has regressed modestly.

Illinois has a major advantage of the offensive glass and will have a big edge in second-chance scores. They rank 5th nationally in second-chance scoring and I just do not see how Loyola will be able to withstand the Illini’s offensive efficiency.

Illinois head coach Underwood is a highly profitable 35-15 ATS when facing solid ball-handling teams that are averaging 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game.

Abilene Christian vs Texas
NCAA First Round, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
9:50 PM EST, March 20, 2021

5% or 10-Star Best Bet on Texas – 8.5 points

Coming off a terrible day on Friday going 0-3 ATS with 8-UNIT Best Bets, but at least winning Loyola as a 6-UNIT winning bet. UCLA won Thursday as a 8-UNIT Best Bet bring the 2-day record to 1-3 with 8-UNIT and 1-0 with 6-UNIT Best Bets. I mention this only to remind all of us, including myself, that this is a grinding marathon for 365-days. I am expecting to post my sixth consecutive profitable NCAA Tournament, but do NOT increase your bet size. Stay disciplined and maintain the long-term view to profitability that has served me quite well for 26 years.

Betting on favorites in a matchup of similar offenses that are averaging 74 to 79 PPG, after the 15th game of the regular season including all Tournament action, and with the dog coming off three straight double-digit wins has earned a 40-23-2 ATS record for 63.5% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. If the favorite is lined between 3.5 and 9.5 points, the record improves to 26-8-2 ATS for 77% winning bets and has won nine straight ATS.

Texas has big-time advantages across the board and at both ends of the court. Abilene Christian ranks 319th in strength of schedule and this is a sizable jump in competition taking on a Texas squad that has been far more consistent, and plays better away from Austin. Make no mistake about it, Texas will look to pressure every ball-handler looking to force turnovers and get quick fast-break scores. Texas ranks 56th in the nation in points off of steals and 40th in defensive field goal attempt rate.

Grand Canyon vs Iowa

NCAA First Round, Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN

6:25 PM EST, March 20, 2021

4% Best Bet on Iowa – 14.5 points. 

Iowa is 27-11-1 ATS facing defensive teams that are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers-per-game over the last two seasons. Iowa is 13-3 ATS installed as a double-digit favorite spanning the last two seasons. Iowa is 17-5 ATS in games lined with a total between 140 and 149.5 points spanning the last two seasons. Iowa is 10-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games spanning the last three seasons. Iowa is 9-1 ATS coming off a game allowing 45 or more points in the first half of their last game over the last three seasons. Iowa is 8-1 ATS adfter a double-digit loss over the last two seasons. Iowa Head coach McCaffery is 44-27 ATS as a double-digit favorite

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Iowa is 20-7-1 ATS for 75% winning bets when they have scored 81 or more points in games played over the last two seasons. 

The team is led by super-stud Luc Garza and is on eof the five starters that returned from last season. They have incredible chemistry and team leadership and this season was dedicated to winning the NCAA Championship. They rank best ball-handling team in the nation with an incredible 2.07 assists-to-turnover ratio. 

Eastern Washington vs Kansas
NCAA RD-1, Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Indiapolis, IN
4% Best Bet on Eastern Washington +10.5 points.

1:15 PM EST, March 20, 2021

The 70-point level is goping to the key for this game and if EWU is going to pull-off an Oral Roberts-like upset over the 3-seed Kansas Jayhawks. The machine learning applications predict a high probability that EWU is going to score more than 70 points. EWU is 13-3 ATS when scoring 70 or more points this season. They are a losing record when not scoring more than 70 points.

Kansas was 18-0 SU when holding an opponent to fewer than 70 points and just 2-8 when allowing 70 or more points this season.

EWU center Tanner Groves has the opportunity for a huge game. They rank 12th nationally in points scored by the center at 28% of total points. Kansas forward David McCormack has been upgraded to probable for this game due to the COVID Quarantine protocol. Still, he is going to have his hands full trying to contain Groves and no one has any clue how much fatigue will impact McCormack.

The biggest problem for the KU defense will be leaving the perimeter open when Groves gets the ball in the box. EWU guards accounted for a modest portion of the scoring, BUT the team has shot 35% from beyomd the arc. Big Sky Conference preseason Player-of-the-Year Jacob Davison, who doesn’t even start, hit 37% from behind the arc and went 9-18 in his last game. EWU knows how to spread the floor and the defense and take the best shot the defense provides them.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that EWU is 11-2 ATS when making at least 33% of their 3-point shots in games played over the last two seasons. They are projected to make at least 80% of their free throw attempts and when doing so are 20-7 ATS in games played over the last three seasons.

North Texas vs Purdue
NCAA Tournament, First Round, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
4:00 PM EST, March 19, 2021

4% Best Bet on Purdue -7 points

Let us start with a solid and consistent monmey-making betting system that has earned a 62-23 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. The system requires a bet be made on favorites that are facing an opponent on a four or more-game win streak and is a 13 through 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Purdue is a solid rebounding team that has averaged 37.6 rebounds-per-game and have outrebounded opponents by 6.2 per-game on the season. Note that North Texas is a money-losing 21-44 ATS away from home and facing an opponent that is outrebounding their opponent by an average of 5 or more rebounds-per-game.

Purdue’s head coach is 13-3 ATS in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. He is also 18-6 ATS when facing an opponent that averages a below average 15 free-throws-per-game.

We learning from the machine learning applications, that Purdue is 13-3 ATS when having four or more offensive boards-per-game than their opponents over the last two seasons. The apps are predicting that North Texas will have fewer than 62 points. North Texas is just 35-60 ATS when scoring 62 or fewer points.

Oregon State vs Tennessee
NCAA Tournament - First Round
Bankers Life Fieldhouse - Indianapolis, IN
4:30 PM EST, March 19, 2021
4% Best Bet on Tennessee -8.5 points.

I certainly do not see any traditional upset here with a 12 vs 5 matchup in the first round. To start, OSU head coach Barnes is a terrible 7-22 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage between 51 and 60% and 8-24 ATS away from home and facing an excellent ball handling team that is committing 12 or fewer turnovers-per-game after the 15th game of the regular season including conference and NCAA, NIT Tournaments.

Based on my opponent-adjusted rankings, UT is the 15th-best and OSU is the 75th-best team in the nation. UT has had a much-better resum based on overall record quality and are a superior team on both ends of the court. UT ranks 25 with a 45.9% opponent effective FG percentage. OSU is just not a good shooting team and is a main reason they play a slower style of game. They do not have the personnel to get involved into a track meet with UT. OSU ranks 230th with a 48.7% offensive effective FG percentage.

From the machine learning applications we know that UT is 151-50-6 ATS for 75% winning bets when scoring 75 or more points in all games played over the last 15 seasons.

Utah State vs Texas Tech
Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament
1:45 PM EST, March 19, 2021

Utah State is the 11-seed going up against a strong Texas Tech 6-seed in this first-round matchup taking place at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana. Utah State has the make-up to win this game and send Texas Tech home.

Both teams playing slower than the average D-1 pace of play. UST averages 69.2 possessions-per-40-minutes and TTU averages an even slower pace averaging 66.9 possessions. UST is playing their best games entering the tournament while TTU has been on a minor regression. UST will look to score from the paint and at the rim as often as possible. They are an excellent passing team and will always make the extra pass to get the highest percentage shot. Their excellent ball movement is going to be tough for TTU defense to contain despite ranking in the top-20 of most defensive efficiency measures. UST is also quite good at scoring on second-chance opportunities. So, the more offensive boards they get and the greater the margin of offensive boards compared to TTU, the better their chances of winning this game.

TTU is just 2-11 ATS when facing teams called for fewer than 17 fouls-per-game this season and 10-20 ATS when facing strong defenses that are allowing 42% or lower shooting over the last two seasons. UST is 9-2 ATS following two consecutive games allowing 30 or fewer points in the first half.  TTU head Coach Beard is 14-26 ATS off a loss to a conference foe and 4-15 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite to a conference foe.

Bet 4% on the Utah State Aggies and sprinkle the money line with a bit extra and not greater than a 1% amount. 

UCLA vs Michigan State
First Four NCAA Tournament
9:57 PM EST, March 18, 2021

4% Best bet on UCLA + 2 points.

The sentiment expectaions are highly overvalued and the betting public is betting MSU with irraytional exhuberance. So, this is a contrarian bet, going against the 77% or more of the bets seeing action on MSU. Currently, 77% of the bets made are on MSU, but just 52% of the money.

On my live shows this week, which can found at Predictive Playbook on YouTube, I had suggested that MSU should have been seeded and that Syracuse was the team that should have been slotted into this play-in matchup with UCLA. Upon further review, and having run my machine learning applications, there is no doubt in my mind that the selection committee got it right. Noyte, too that I am stating that UCLA is guaranteed of getting the win. I am saying, that UCLA is the smart bet in this matchup and making smart bets over the course of the Tournament is a solid path toward potential profitability.

MSU is 5-19 ATS in orad/neutral court setting when playing ateam with a winning record over the last two seasons; 4-14 ATS in road/netral court settings and facing an opponent that is outscoring their opponents by at least four or more points-per-game; 0-7 ATS this season away from home and following five consecutive games where their opponent committed 14 or fewer turnovers.

From the machine learning applications, we are enlightened that MSU is 2-11 ATS in games in which they attempted 55 to 65 shots this season; 18-61 ATS in games played and allowing 75 to 81 points over the last 15 seasons.

Denver Nuggets vs Charlotte Hornets
9:00 PM EST, March 17, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Denver Nuggets -6.5 points

An outstanding betting system is on Denver tonight and has earned an 96-43-2 ATS record good for 69.1% winning bets over the last seven seasons. The requirements are to bet on home favorites of 9.5 or fewer points that are coming off an ATS win and in matchup of teams that have won between 51 and 60% of their games on the season. Plus, a subset that filters if the favorite lost to the spread the last time they played the current opponent has earned a 48-14 ATS record for 77% winning bets.

Charlotte is just 10-21 ASTS in games with a total between 220 and 229.5 points in games played over the last two seasons.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Denver is 18-4 ATS in home games when they have shot 50% from the field and 40% or better from beyond the arc in games played over the last three seasons.

Milwaukee vs Philadelphia
7:00 PM EST, March 17, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Philadelphia 76ers + 6 points.

I also recommend a sprinkle on the money line. I bet these dogs with 85% of normal 4% bet amount using the line (Spread) and then using the remaining 15% on the money line. Over the course of the NBA season, you will definiltey increase the ROI and profits.

Bet on home teams using the money line that are coming off a hard fought home win, but did not cover the spread and are playing their fifth game in the past week has earned an incredible 33-4 SU record for 89% winning bets.

Milwaukee has been a money-burning 7-23 ATS in road game facing good shooting teams that are making at least 46% of their shots in games played over the last two seasons. 76ers are 9-1 ATS in home games and facing an guest that is a dominant team outscoring their opponents by at least 6 points-per-game.

Atlanta vs Houston
8:00 PM EST, March 16, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Houston Rockets + 8.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

The Hawks improved to 3-0 under McMillan with their 100-82 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday and will look to extend their season-long winning streak when they visit the Houston Rockets on Tuesday. This game, may see them extend the win streak to 4-games, but do not cover the spread. Morevoer, this is a situation, where a Houston would not surprise me in the least.

Atlanta is 9-20 ATS in road games facing teams that are allowing 110 or more points-per-game.

Betting on underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games and facing a team that has covered the spread in three or more of their last four games has earned a 75-29 ATS record good for 72% winning bets over the last 25 seasons. Atlanta is just 3-14 ATS after covering four or five of their last 6 games spanning the last two seasons.

Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors
10:30 PM EST, March 15, 2021
4% Best bet on Golden State +2 points. Sprinkle the momney line only if the spread reaches 3 or more points.

The Warriors stopped a four-game losing streak with a big-time win over Western Conference leading Jazz, 131-119 as a 7.5 point underdog. Lakers have lost six of their last nine games, and two of their last three.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that the Warriors are 22-3 ATS for 88% winning bets when they have scored 111 or more points and had the better and more efoicient assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the last five seasons.

Milwaukee vs Washington
7:00 PM EST, March 15, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Milwaukee Bucks -8 points

This is the second consecutive metting between these teams. On Saturday, Washington’s Russell Westbrook had a triple-double, and made a 3-pointer to tie the game at 119-119, but Milwaukee scored the finals six points to secure the win. The Wizards will be short-handed again playing with out Beal and Bertans, who is fourth on the team in scoring at 11.3 PPG. Washington has four players scoring in double-digits and will be without two of them and Beal is the NBA scoring leader. Beal may play, but I doubt he will be better than 90% of his usual self.

Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who are outscoring their opponents by at least 6 PPG and are coming off a game that they allowed 115 or more points has earned a solid 52-26 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Milwaukee is an outstanding 79-6 SU and 71-14 ATS for 84% winning bets when they have scored at least 111 points, made 48% or more of their field goal attempts, and had at least five more rebounds than their opponents in games played over the last ten seasons. 47-13 ATS for 78.3% in games played over the last three seasons.

Oregon State vs Coloroado
PAC-12 Tournament Championship
10:30 PM EST, March 13, 2021
5% Best Bet on Colorado -9 points.

Colorado has significant advantages at both ends of the court. The greatest advantage is at the charity stripe where Colorado gets to the line as much as the average PAC-12 or D-1 team but ranks best in the nation making 83.4% of those shots. Colorado ranks 103rd with a 26.6 free-throw attempt rate and will exceed their season average by as many as ten attempts given that OSU ranks 245th in defensive free-throw attempt rate. 
By my measures and machine learning analytics, Colorado ranks 12th-best in offensive efficiency in the nation. OSU is a distant 82nd in offensive efficiency.  Colorado ranks 53rd in shooting efficiency while OSU is a distant 195th nationally. Colorado ranks 56th in defensive shooting efficiency while OSU is 238th. 
OSU head coach Tinkle is 9-20 ATS away from home after two consecutive wins. Colorado head coach Boyle is a solid 32-16 ATS after three consecutive games where the opponent had 31 or fewer rebounds and 18-5 ATS in four consecutive games where the opponent had 31 or fewer rebounds. 
From the machine learning applications, we learn that Colorado is 17-6 ATS in games in which they scored 75 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. 

Indiana vs Phoenix
10:00 PM EST, March 13, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Phoenix Suns -7 points

Bettinng on home teams that are on a five or more-game win streak and have won 60 to 70% of their games on the seasons and facing an opponent that has won 40 to 49% of their games on the seasons has earned a 25-4 SU record and 19-8-2 ATS for 70.4% winning bets over the last ten seasons. If the home team we are betting on also defeated this opponent in the last matchup, the record soars to an incredible 21-2 SU and 18-4-1 ATS for 82% winning bets.

From the machine learning applications we are informed that Phoenix is 42-19 SU and 46-15 ATS for 75.4% winning bets when scoring 111 or mor epoints and shooting at least 48% from the field in games played over the last three seasons.

Iona vs Fairfield
4:00 PM EST, March 13, 2021
Metro Atlantic Tournament Championship.
4% Best Bet on Fairfield +8.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

I recommend playing this bet in two parts consisting of 85% of your 4% bet size on the spread, and 15% on the money line. Depending on your risk appetite a ratio of 90% spread and 10% money line may be more to your liking and is perfectly ok. The point is to not exceed 15% of your 4% amount using the money line. These ratios provide the best total rate of return (ROI) over the course of the season – not just a single day. 

A few quick hitters.
Fairfield is 19-7 ATS when facing solid defensive teams allowing 42% or worse shooting in games played over the last three seasons. They are 10-2 ATS when playing their third game in five days. Iona is an imperfect 0-9 ATS in road/neutral sites after two consecutive wins of six or fewer points. Head Coach Young is 19-5-1 ATS when playing on back-to-back days or with no more than one day of rest between games.

Ohio State vs Michigan
Big Ten Semifinals
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
4% Best Bet on Ohio State +6 poinnts and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

I recommend playing this bet in two parts consisting of 85% of your 4% bet size on the spread, and 15% on the money line. Depending on your risk appetite a ratio of 90% spread and 10% money line may be more to your liking and is perfectly ok. The point is to not exceed 15% of your 4% amount using the money line. These ratios provide the best total rate of return (ROI) over the course of the season – not just a single day. 

The pace of this matchup is going to be slower than average for these two teams. Michigan and Ohio State rank 9th and 10th averaging 67.8 possessions-per-40-minutes. The machine learning applications predict that both teams will not exceed 68 possessions each in this game. Despite the lower style of game, both teams are incredibly efficient on the offensive end. Michigan is one of four teams in the nation ranking in the top-20 in offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage. Ohio State and Michigan are excellent free-throw shooting teams making 77% of those shots. However, OSU gets to the stripe far more often than Michigan. Plus, Ohio State plays a defense to defend shots and not force turnovers. As a result, a Michigan team that ranks 263rd attempting 16.3 free throws per game will get even fewer against OSU. 

Referees in the Big Ten Tournament have been whistle happens and calling far more fouls than during the regular season and heavily favors OSU if the foul-calling officiating continues. 

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Ohio State is 17-0 SU and 14-3 ATS for 82.4% winning bets when scoring 77 or more points and making 7 or more free throws than the opponent in games played over the last five seasons. 

Connecticut vs Creighton
Big East Tournament Semifinals, Madison Square Garden, NY
9:00 PM EST, March 12, 2021

4% Best Bet on Crieghton -1

Play on neutral court favorites or pick-em that are coming off a blowout win of 20 or more points in their last game and now facing an opponent coming off three consecutive double-digit wins has earned a highly profitable 34-14 ATS record for 71% ATS winners.

The machine learning applications predict that Crieghton will have five or fewer tunrovers than UCONN and have the better assists-to-turnover ratio. In games where Creighton has matched or exceeded these measures has produced a 20-3 ATS record over the last five seasons.

UCONN is a miserable 4-17 ATS in road games after four consecutive double-digit wins.

Denver vs Memphis
8:00 PM EST, March 12, 2021
4% Best Bet on the Denver Nuggets

Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a previous ATS win and with both they and their opponent sporting win precentages between 50 and 60% on the season has made 72.3% winners onm an 81-3-2 ATS record.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Denver is 44-21-2 ATS when scoring at least 111 points in games played over the last three seasons.

North Carolina vs Virginia Tech
9:00 PM EST, March 11, 2021
ACC Quarterfinals
5% Best Bet on North Carolina -3.5 points
UNC is coming into their traditional form after a shaky first half of the regular season. They throttled Notre Dame 101-59 last night and teams playing with zero rest and scored 100 or more points in their previous game are 69-47-4 ATS and if the team is in the ACC, Big East, B-12, B-10, P-12 or SEC have earned a 31-16-1 ATS re3cord for 67% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. 
Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, playing their third game in the past 7 days, and is coming off a conference win scoring at least 80 points has earned a 79-40 ATS record for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons. If the team scored 90 or more points, the ATS record improves to 77% winning bets. 
UNC is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation ranking second and averaging 43.2 rebounds-per-game. They also rank 31st averaging 15.8 assists-per-game, and V-Tech has averaged just 14.2 assists-per-game ranking 85th. UNC has advantages with their recent form (momentum) ranking 16th nationally, consistency ranking 35th, and 55th in the pace of play, which V-Tech will struggle to keep up with tonight. 
V-Tech must play slow and control the pace of the game. They rank 278th averaging 68 possessions-per-40-minutes. UNC ranks second in second-chance scoring and going gup a V-Tech defense that ranks 135th in defensive second-chance scoring. 
V-Tech is 5-15 ATS when facing a team that is outscoring their opponents by at least 5 PPG in games played over the last three seasons. UNC is a stellar 33-15 ATS in road games following a game in which their defense allowed the opponent 33% or lower shooting.

Mississippi State vs Kentucky
Noon ET, March 11, 2021
SEC First Round

4% Best Bet on Kentucky -4 points

Betting on neutral court teams that are solid on the defensive end allowing 42.5 to 45% opponent shooting and now facing a team that is shooting between 45 and 47.5% and is the better ball handlin team committing no more than 14 turnovers-per-game and their opponent averaging more than 14 turnovers-per-game has earned a 35-13-1 ATS record over the last five seasons for 73% winning bets.

Calipari is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a game in which his team made 13 or more 3-point shots.

Duke vs Louisville

6:30 PM EST, March 9, 2021

4% Best Bet on Louisville plus the points and NO sprinkle on the money line. 

Betting on all teams lined within 3.5 points between on either side of pick,  that is coming off a double-digit loss and facing a foe that they already defeated earlier in the season as an underdog has earned a 55-28-1 ATS mark good for 67% winners over the last five seasons. 

Duke is 0-7 ATS when facing solid rebounding teams that are outrebounding opponents by 5 or more per game. 

Long Beach State vs. CS-Northridge
Big West Tournament First Round, Michelob Ultra Arena, NV
6:00 PM EST, March 9, 2021
4% Best Bet on Long Beach State +2.5 points and if this line reaches 3 or more points then sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

The Big West Conference (BWC) is a weak conference, however, their tournament is going to provide many entertaining and dram-filled games. This matchup is one of them. UC-Santa Barbara is the cream of the conference and will be favored in every game they play. They went 15-3 in conference play and 19-4 overall this season, but they must win this tournament because there will not be any at-large bids given to this conference.

The pace of play will be aboverage based on the conference and national ratings. LBST ranks 13th nationally and fastest in the BWC averaging 84.3 possessions-per-40-minutes. Cal State Northridge (CSN) ranks 99th nationally and 4th in the BWC with an average of 71.3 possessions-per-40-minutes. LBST has advantages over the CSN defense in most offensive efficiency measures including overall efficiwency in points-scored per 100 possessions. Moreover, LBST, has a significantly better defense ranking only 198th nationally in overall defensive efficiencies. CSN ranks 345th allowing 111.5 points-per-100-opponent possessions.

A few quick hitters. CSN head coach Gottfried is just 1-9 ATS in road games facing teams that are getting outrebounded by at least four or more rebounds-per-game from the 16th game on out. LBST head coach Monson is 24-12-1 ATS in road/neutral venues facing a team that is allowing an average of 45 or higher opponent shooting.

St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga
WCC Semifinals
9:00 PM EST, March 8, 2021

4% Best Bet on St. Mary’s +17.5-points

Let’s start with a proven and highly profitable betting system that has earned a 62-26-2 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. The system requires us to bet on double-digit underdogs that are coming off two games scoring 55 or fewer points and facing an opponent that has scored 75 or more points in three consecutive games. That is all there is to it.

St. Mary’s is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or more of their last six games pver the last two seasons. Gonzaga is just 11-24 in roiad or neutral sites coming off three or more home games installed as a favorite in each one of them.

Wisconmsin-Milwaukee vs Cleveland State
6:30 PM EST, March 8, 2021
Horizon Tournament Semifinals. Indiana Farmers Coliseum
4% Best Bet on Cleveland State

The line for this game is starting to ‘steam’ with Cleveland State, who has garnered just 33% of the tickets but has accounted for 87% of the money bet at about 2:00 ET. I do think the line will continue to grind higher, so if you can get -3.5 points grab it. You are more likely to get -4 points, but that is ok as well given that the machine learning applications are projecting a Cleveland State win by at least 8-points. 

Betting on home favorites of less than 9.5 points that are revenging a home loss and with that opponent coming off an upset win over a conference foe has earned a solid 72-36-4 ATS for 67% winning bet over the last five seasons. 

Back on January 22 and 23, Cleveland State played a back-to-back home set with Milwaukee and split the games. They won the first and lost the second setting up the revenge. Milwaukee is coming off a monster 94-92 major upset road win over then-conference favorite Wright State as 13-point underdogs. 

Back on January 22 and 23, Cleveland State played a back-to-back home set with Milwaukee and split the games. They won the first and lost the second setting up the revenge. Milwaukee is coming off a monster 94-92 major upset road win over then-conference favorite Wright State as 13-point underdogs.

Texas vs. TCU
7:00 PM EST, March 7, 2021
4% Best Bet on Texas -7.5 points

The regular-season finale for both teams in this B-12 matchup. Texas has struggled with consistent ball-handling all season and ranks 195th with a 0.934 assist-to-turnover ratio. Despite their troubles holding on to the ball, TCU ranks 334th in defensive assists-to-turnover ratio. Texas will look like an elite passing team such as Iowa and others matched up against a very weak TCU defense. 

The Texas defense is the engine of the team. They are aggressive and rank 24th with an outstanding 0.757 defensive assist-to-turnover ratio. TCU is going to struggle against this style of defense and look for at least five more turnovers than their season average of 13.8 turnovers-per-game, based on the machine learning applications. Further, TCU is 14-26 ATS in games in which their opponent committed fewer than 14 turnovers in games played over the last three seasons. 

TCU is 0-6 ATS hosting a guest that is averaging 21 or more three-point shot attempts this season. Texas has averaged 24 3-point shot attempts on the season.  

Michiagn vs Michigan State
4:30 PM EST, March 7, 2021
4% Best Bet on Michigan -7 points

Betting on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have won at least 80% of their games on the season, are coming off a home win against a conference foe, and facing a conference foe winning 51 to 60% of their games has erned a 73-33-3 ATS record for 59% winning records over the past five seasons.

Michigan is 12-1 ATS when facing a team that averages just 6 or fewer steals-per-game this season.

From the machine learning applications, we learnm that there is a high probability that Michigan will score a minimum of 75 points. Michigan is 8-0 ATS when scoring 75 or more points in games played over the last two seasons. MSU is 0-7 ATS when allowing 75 or more points in games played over the last three seasons.

ELON vs. James Madison
CAA Quarterfinals
2:30 ET, march 7, 2021
4% Best Bet on James Madison – 4 points

JMU has won nine of their last 11 games and are the top-seed with Northeastern the second-seed and both teams having identical 8-2 conference records. ELON had a shortened regular season, but amn amazing roller coaster ride losing eight straight games and then starting the current 5-game win streak and covered the spread in all five games. During the losing streak ELON shot 38% or wrose in six of the games. During the five-game win streak they have shot not lower than 45% from the field.

ELON started Buford, Hannah, McIntosh, Ndugba, and Wright to start the 5-game win streak and that has been the starting lineup in each of the five wins. McIntosh is the energy that fuels ELON scoring 15.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, and 2.4 APG. Elon, however, lost two back-to-back games to James Madison at the Atlantic Union Bank Center, which is hosting the CAA Tournament.

ELON is 0-8 ATS on the road or neutral court setting in a game with a total between 140 and 150 points. JMU is 6-0 ATS after having lost tow of their last three games.

Florida State vs Notre Dame

Noon ET, March 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on FSU – 6.5 points

My opponent-adjusted power ratings illustrate and underscore the major mismatch of this ACC game. FSU is the 8th best team in the nation and Notre Dame is ranked 75th. Further, with a 9-14 SU record, Notre Dame has very little incentive or motivation knowing that they have little or no chance to advance to the NCAA Tournament.

FSU ranks 15th in scoring offense averaging 79.9 PPG and will have little trouble, based on my machine learning applications, exceeding 81 points in this game. FSU is 8-1 ATS when scoring 81 or more points this season and 117-12 SU and 81-25-3 ATS for 76.4% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.

FSU has a defense that at times during games forgets to play defense. However, Notre Dame’s defense ranks among the worst in the nation as evidenced by a 1.67 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio that ranks 345th nationally. This ratio means that Notre Dame’s opponents had 1.67 assists for every turnover they committed and could easily move the ball from side-to-side and find the best percentage shot available.

FSU is coming off a blowout 93-64 win over Boston College and covered the spread as 19-point home favorites. Notre Dame is coming off their fourth straight loss and to the spread with an 80-69 uninspired defeat at the hands of NC State as a 3.5-point favorite.

Betting on road favorites of 3.5 to 10-points that won at home by 10 or more points in their previous game and now facing a host that is off an upset loss as a favorite has earned bettors of this system a profit-making 74-42-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Georgetown vs Connecticut

Noon ET, March 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Georgetown +9.5 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

Georgetown is heating up and maybe peaking at just the right time under Hall-of-Famer head coach Patrick Ewing. They have won and covered four of their last five games with wins over Butler, Xavier, DePaul, and Seton Hall. The lone loss was against these same Connecticut Huskies and know that Georgetown is 6-0 ATS this season playing with revenge.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Georgetown is 7-0 ATS this season when scoring 71 or more points and their opponent commits at least 12 turnovers. Over the last 15 seasons, this combination of performance measures has produced a highly profitable 128-19 SU record and 96-35-7 ATS mark good for 73.3% winning bets.

Loyola-Maryland vs Navy

Noon ET, March 6, 2021

4% Best Bet on Loyola-Maryland +4.5 points and sprinkle a little more on the money line.

This is matchup in the quarterfinals of the Patriot League Tournament. Loyola is led by three seniors in Santi Aldama, Luke Johnson, and Isaiah Hart. Navy is the top-seed in this tournament, but make no mistake about it, Loyola is fully capable of getting the upset win. The trio of seniors as accounted for 47.5% of the offensive production for the season. In addition, they have stepped up their games and floor leadership by accounting for 58% of the offensive production in the last. Five games. Aldama is the best player of the trio and is averaging a team-high 21.4 PPG and 10.1 rebounds-per-game.

The COVID-19 protocols have compounded the Navy’s problems with guard Cam Davis listed as questionable for this game. He is averaging a team-high 17.1 PPG including 2.8 assists-per-game, and 2.7 rebounds-per-game, and the Navy bench is not deep enough to offset the loss of his production at both ends of the court.

The pivot for this game centers on 70 based on my machine learning applications that project Navy will not score more than 70 points. Loyola is 0-9 SU when they have allowed more than 70-points and a perfect 4-0 when they have allowed fewer than 70 in games played this season. They are 30-14-2 ATS in road games and scoring 65 or more points over the last 10 seasons.

Middle Tennessee State vs Florida Atlantic
6:00 ET, March 5, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Middle Tennessee State +10 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line too.

Betting on road underdogs of 10 to 20 points that is coming off three consecutive losses to conference foes and facing an opponent coming off a 20 or more-point  win over a conference rival has earned a profit-making 53-24-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons.

FAU is a money-burning 11-36 ATS facing offenses that are averaging 64 or fewer PPG. FAU is 20-48 ATS after having won three of their last four games.

Portland vs Santa Clara
11:59 PM EST, March 4, 2021
4% Best Bet on Portland +14-points

This matchup is in the first round of the West Coast Tournament being held at Orleans Plaza, NV.  Simply stated, my machine learning applications and analytical comparisons between these two teams conclude that Santa Clara should not be favored by this many points and more likely that this game ends in a single-digit margin.

Betting on road teams of 10 to 19.5 points after being beaten by the spread by at least six points in three consecutive games has earned bettors a solid 201-137-3 ATS record for 60% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.

Santa Clara is just 5-15-1 ATS after a game in which they covered the spread over the last two seasons. Santa Clara head coach Sendek is just 5-19 ATS when facing excellent free throw shooting teams making at least 77% of their free-throw attempts.

At the end of the day, this is too many points and on top of it, Santa Clara’s guard Ahmed Ali is questionable with an Achilles injury.

St. Joesphs vs Massachusetts
A-10 Tournament, Secon Round, Robins Center, Richmond, VA

1:00 PM EST, March 4, 2021

4% Best bet on the St. Joes +3 points and sproinkle a bit more on the money line, but omnly if the line is +3 or more.

The St. Joes basketball team must be enjoying the city of Richmond quite a bit having knocked off Richmond University as 14.5 point dogs and are now coming off an upset win over LaSalle. My analytics say they make it three winning upsets in a row.

UMASS and St. Joes play at a fast pace with both rankings in the top-50 nationally. However, the faster pace favors St. Joes given their edge in positive momentum coming into this game. They have played their best basketball as a team right now and rank 35th in consistency ratings.

From the machine learning predictive applications, we learn that St. Joes is 70-35 ATS in road games and scoring between 75 and 81 points over the last two seasons. In addition, 45-24-1 ATS in road games where both they and their opponent exceeded 75 points.

Utah Jazz vs Philadelphia 76ers
Well Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
7:00 PM EST, March 3, 2021
4% NBA Best Bet on the 76ers +3.5 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line.

The best in the West takes the best in the East and is the last game for each team ahead of the All-Star break.  The 76ers lost inexplicably lost to the Cleveland Cavs, but bounced back with their best team performance of the season. The Sixers played a stellar all-around game in a 130-114 win over the visiting Indiana Pacers on Monday. Shake Milton gave Philadelphia a spark off the bench with 26 points versus the Pacers. Joel Embiid added 24 points and 13 rebounds, Furkan Korkmaz contributed 19 points and Ben Simmons had 18 in a balanced effort. The bench posted a season-best 67 points as the Sixers improved their home record to an Eastern Conference-best 15-3.

76ers are 20-4 ATS in home gamesd when facing explosive teams that are scoring 110 or more points-per-game ovcer the last two seasons.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that the 76ers are 30-1 SU and 26-5 ATS for 84% winning bets in home games when they have scored 111 or more points and held their opponent to 35% shooting from beyond the arc in games played over the last three seasons.

NC State vs Notre Dame
7:00 ET, March 3, 2021
4% Best bet on Notre Dame -2.5 points

Notre Dame has several team angles supporting this play that was produced by my machine learning applications. Notre Dame is 8-1 ATS wjhen playing against a marginal winning team sporting a win percentage not higher than 60% in games played over the last three seasons; head coach Brey is 19-7 ATS when facing opponents with a winning record not exceeding 60%.

From the machine learning applications, we learn that Notre Dame is predicted to shoot at least 48% from the field. In past games when Notre Dame has made 48% or better form the field has earned a 115-52-4 ATS record over the last 15 seasons and when NC State has allowed an opponent 48% or better shooting has been a money-burning 9-21-1 ATS in games played over the last three seasons.

Oregon State vs Utah
7:00 ET, March 3, 2021
4% Best Bet on Utah -3.5 points

Here are some quick hitters supporting Utah.
Utah is 28-11-2 ATS in home games and after the 15th game of the regular season when facing a decent shooting free team that is making at least 72%. They are 46-26 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games and 31-15-1 ATS for 67% winning bets when revenging a same season loss.

Oregon State is 15-33 ATS after two consecutive wins to conference foes.

Utah head coach is 31-18 ATS revenging a same -season loss and 36-16 ATS reveging any loss (same season or not) in which his team scored 60 or fewer points.

From the machine learning applications, wqe learn that Utah is 24-3 SU and 20-5-2 ATS for 80% winning bets when making 79% or more of their free throws and committing 13 or fewer turnovers in home games played over the last 10 seasons.

Fort Wayne vs Cleveland State
7:00 PM EST, March 2, 2021
Horizon Conference Quarterfinals
8-UNIT Best bet on Cleveland State -7.5 points

Wright State  and Cleveland State are the giants in the Horizon Conference this season. Both teams sport 16-4 conference records with CSU is the No 1 seed. Make no mistake about it, Wright State is the best team by a large margin.

Fort Wayne is the 10-seed and defeated Wisconsin-Green Bay 89-84 as 5.5-point underdogs. Fort Wayne plays at an average D-1 clip ranking 146th averaging 70.4 possesssions-per-40-minutes. CSU is ranked 228th averaging 69 possessions-per-40-minutes. That ranking is a bit misleading as they only average 1.5 fewer possessionos than Fort Wayne and reflects the team density in this metric.

CSU has a monster advantage on the offensive end. They will take a lot of mid-range shots knowing they rank 17th nationally and will be going against a Fort Wayne defense that ranks 316th defending mid-range shots. This matchup, alone, projects to a double-digit CSU win.

CSU’s junior guard Tre Gomillion is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. He is third-high on the team averaging 9.5 PPG. If he is unable to go tonight, there are several good guards ready to jump off the bench and contribute. Alec Oglesby is one of those players. He is a 6-5 freshman from The Rock School in Gainesville, FL and has the skillset to step up large. I would not be surprised if he ended up being the high-scorer for CSU in this game.

No 3 Baylor vs No 6 West Virginia
5:00 ET, March 2, 2021
8-UNIT Best bet on West Virginia + 4-points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

In this mtachup WVU has the majority of advantages at both ends of the court. They have played a tougher schedule ranking 10th as compared to Baylor’s 94th ranking in this category. No doubt West Virginia has a ton of positive momentum coming into this game and are at the top od their game right nowBaylor has been winning of late, but their efficiency measures had been deteriorating ahead of the Kansas loss. WVU is a much more consistent team week in and week out. Most importantly, WVU likes to play faster than Baylor, who will not be able to withstand the WVU offensive assault.

Baylor has played their worst games on the road this season and just because you won a game and covered the spread does not always translate into an ‘A-grading’.

Betting on home teams as a dog in a matchup of two teasm that are solid rebounding teams averaging at least three more rebounds than their opponents and is a solid defensive team allowing 45% or lower opponent shooting and now facing a team that is an excellent shooting team making 48% or more of their shots-per-game has earned a 25-5-1 ATS record good for 83.3% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Under head coach Huggins, WVU is 41-16-2 ATS in hmome games and coming off a rouble-digit win.

I believe WVU will win this game outright.

Michigan State vs Maryland

2:30 ET, February 28, 2021

4% Best Bet on Maryland -2.5-points.

As a bonus pick, I like the OVER in this matchup too, and suggest a 2 or 3% betting amount at any price at 134 or lower. A 2% parlay is also an option betting the OVER and Maryland.

A simplistic betting system does not mean it does not have the ability to be highly profitable. This one has earned a 55-29 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last five seasons and instructs us to be home teams that are facing a foe, who is on a three or more-game win streak and has a winning record not higher than 60% on the season.  

Adding a filter that the home team has a higher effective FG percentage than the opponent and that the home team sports an effective FG percentage above 50% improves the system to a 29-9 ATS record good for 76% winning bets over the last ten seasons.

Maryland plays one of the slowest-paced styles of basketball ranking 333rd in the enation. However, that is more than priced into the market and my machine learning applications project a high probability that 140 or more points will be scored.  MSU has played significantly worse on the road than in their home games. 

MSU is just 2-13 ATS facing teams, who like to take the ‘three’ and average at least 21 3-points shot-attempts-per-game on the season.

Minnesota vs Washington

7:00 PM EST, February 27, 2021

4% NBA Best Bet on Minnesota +4.5 points and add a sprinkle using the money line. 

Betting on underdogs coming off three consecutive road losses and installed as a 3 to 9.5 point underdogs and facing a non-conference host have earned a 40-16-2 ATS record for 71.4% winning bets over the last seven seasons. Plus, if the the road underdog is on the road again, the record improves to an amzing 23-4-2 ATS for 85% winning bets. 

From the machine learning applications and projections for this ganme, we learn that Minneosta is 25-1 SU and 24-2 ATS for 92.3% winning bets when they have scored 111 or more points, had fewer turnovers than their opponent, and held that opponent to 45% or lower shooting in games played over the last five seasons.

Sacramento Kings vs Detroit Pistons

8:00 ET, February 26, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Sacramento Kings -1 point. I do not see any value in making this a money line bet. 

Betting on teams that are playing on back-to-back nights and have lost three consecutive road games straight-up has earned a 24-21 SU record and 35-9-1 ATS record for 79.5% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system tells us to bet Sacramento. 

If the current game is another road game for the ailing road warriors, and they defeated this opponent in the last matchup, the record goes to 16-2 ATS for 89% winning bets over the last five seasons. Sacramento is on the road and did defeat Detroit in their last matchup.

This is the fifth and final road game for the Kings, who have been losers of nine straight games and to the spread. Since 1995, there have been 21 teams, who have gone on a SU and ATS 9 or more-game losing streak. These teams have gone 12-9 ATS for 57% and drilling down to filter only road games, the record is 7-4 ATS for 64% winners. 

From the machine learning applications, we are informed that Sacramento is expected to score at least 111 points. The Kings are 45-20-2 ATS for 69% winners over the past five seasons when scoring 111 or more points in a road game. The Pistons are 16-37 ATS for 30% winning bets in home games in which they allowed 111 or more points. 

J

Purdue vs Penn State

7:00 PM EST, February 26, 2021

3% Best Bet on Penn State (PSU) +1.5-points

Purdue has evolved into a well-respected team in the Big Ten that has the talent to take down one of the giants, like Michigan or Ohio State. Recency bias is a amajor part of the opening line and subsequent line movement. However, this line opened with Purdue as a 1.5 point road favorite and has quickly reversed and now has PSU priced as a 1-point favorite. Line movement this strong is quite bullish and positive for backing PSU. 

My opponent-adjusted power ratings show PSU as a -2-point home favorite and agrees with Haslam Metrics too. Don’t be fooled by PSU and their 5-11 conference record. The Big Ten is one of the strongest conferences I have seen in more than a decade. According to KenPom, PSU would be a pick-em to -1.5 point favorite over North Carolina, Clemson, Arizona, Oklahoma State, and UCLA. 

So, now we have a truly desperate PSU team that is coming off a hard-fought win at Nebraska. PSU had five players scoring in double-figures and team-leader Mayreon Jones had a career-high 29-points. So, PSU comes into this game off their best one of the season.

From the database queries, we learn that PSU is a highly profitable 15-3 ATS when coming off a game in which 155 or more points were scored spanning the last three seasons. They are also 7-0 ATS off a conference road win spanning the last three seasons and I see this angle moving to 8-0 ATS tonight. 

I am on a 12-5 ATS NBA and NCAAM Best Bets run. Over the long-term spanning many seasons, I am 407-309 (57%) over my last 714 basketball picks, which has made the Dime bettor a profit of $72,120 since January 1, 2018. So, take a few minutes and purchase a cost-saving longer-term subscription so that you never miss a play. 

Drake vs Bradley

Carver Arena, Peoria, IL

7:00 PM EST, February 26, 2021

10-UNIT best bet on Bradley +9 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line. I have had the best success over the course of a season by taking my 5% amount and playing 80% of that amount on the line, and then 20% using the money line. 

Drake is tied with Loyola Chicago at 14-2 on top of the Missouri Valley Conference standings. Many of you, who listen to my live Predictive Playbook that is broadcast on Periscope and YouTube channels, already know I live Loyola-Chicago quite a bit and have bet them at 50-1 long shot to win the NCAAM Championship. I do not believe Drake is even the second-best team in the conference and is vulnerable in this matchup against Bradley. This is the first of back-to-back games against each other and they will play again tomorrow. 

The pace of this game will be slower than the average pace is for the MVC. Bradley ranks 260th and Drake 250th in possessions-per-40-minutes. A key factor in this bet is that Drake has played far worse in road games, than at home. Plus, Drake, despite winning four of their last five games has been playing at an inferior level compared to earlier this season when they were scorching hot. Drake is coming off back-to-back home wins over Evansville, who ranks 234th overall in the Haslem metrics and 240th with my opponent-adjusted PR. Bradley is a much better team than Evansville, and it is not even close. Bradley ranks 180th in PR and Haslem ranks them 182nd. 

Bradley head coach Wardle is 27-11-1 ATS after giving up five or fewer offensive rebounds in their previous game. Bradley plays their best defense in a fundamentally sound fashion and not look to be overly aggressive to get steals and turnovers. So, Wardle is 23-12-1 AYTS in games following back-to-back games where the respective opponent did not commit more than 11 turnovers. Wardle knows how to play against strong defenses as noted by his 15-6 ATS record in home games facing an opponent that has allowed 42% opponent shooting on the season. 

Bradley lost their team-leading scorer and rebounder in senior Elijah Childs, who was suspended from the team on February 17. Bradley has used nine different starting lineups this season and head coach Wardle had been juggling starting lineups and playing minutes even before this suspension. At the D-1 level, bench players cannot wait to get their chance to showcase their talents in live-game situations. I believe that the loss of Childs will be more than offset by players getting that chance to have more minutes of playing time. 

Keep an eye on Ja’Shon Henry tonight. He was averaging around 20-minutes-per-game but has had 28,24, and 30-minutes of playing time in his last three games. He has scored 43 of his season total of 203 points and shot 15-for-24 for 63% in these last three games. 

Take Bradley plus the points as a 10-UNIT Best Bet

NC State vs No 15 Virginia

6:30 PM ERST, February 24, 2021

4% Best Bet on Virginia -11.5 points

UVA enters this matchup off their first two-gamne losing streak of the season. They were blown out by a very good FSU team by 19 points in Tallahassee and most recently lost a tough 1-point game at Duke. Their defense as awful in the losses allowing 50% shooting to FSU and 51% to Duke. Their defense is quite good and you can expect a much better performance against much weaker opponent in NC State. 

Betting on team that are coming off two upset road losses and now facing an opponent that is revenging a home loss to this team has earned an outstanding 68-31-3 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. If the opponent is the road team and is revenging that loss, where they failed to score more than 60 points, the record soars to 33-9-1 ATS for 78% winning bets. 

NC State lost 64-13 as 7-point home underdogs to UVA on February 3. NC State is 1-9 ATS revenging a home loss versus opponent in games played over the last three seasons. 

My expectations see UVA bouncing back with a big game and gets the ATS win. 

J

Washington Wizards vs LA Clippers
Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
10:00 PM EST, Washington Wizards +12 points

Betting on road underdogs that have won 25 to 35% of their games on the season and coming off a road win, now facing a host with a winning record. When the game in question occurs after the 15th game of the regular season, the record soars to 51-15-2 ATS for 77% winning bets. If the game is after game number 25, the record then goes to a money-making 43-10-2 ATS machine for 81.1% winning bets.

I was on the Wizards last night in their road upset win over the Lakers and I see no reason not to back them again tonight. They are playing on back-to-back nights, but with no travel since the Lakers and Clippers both play home games at the Staples Center. The Clippers are playing their eighth game in the past 14 days and will have fatigue issues of their own. More important is their 5-game win and ATS win streak.

From the machine learning applications we are informed that the Wizards are 39-14-1 ATS for 74% winning bets in road games, scoring at least 111 points and having the better assist-to-turnover ratio in games played over the last five seasons.

Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech
Blacksburg, VA
7:00 ET, February 23, 2021
4% Best Bet on Georgia Tech +3 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

Georgia Tech is the better ball-handling team ranking 16th nationally with a 1.423 asssist-to-turnover ratio and matched a rather non-aggressive V-Tech defense that ranks 114th with a 0.906 opponent assist-to-turnover ratio. G-Tech has the better effective field-goal-percentage, the better free throw shooting percentage, and the better shooting efficiency measures that can win this game outright.

V-Tech is a money-burning 3-13 ATS when facing good bvall-handling teasm that are averaging 14 or fewer turnovers-per-game in games played after the 15th one of the regular season. They are also 7-20-1 SATS in games following a four-game stretch in which they committed 14 or fewer turnovers in each one.

G-Tech Pastner is 6-0 ATS following back-to-back games in which his team made 78% or more of their free throw attempts.

Akron vs Ohio
Convocation Center, Athens, OH
2:00 PM EST, February 23, 2021
4% Best Bet on Ohio Univeristy +1.5 points

To begin with, I like this matchup knowing that Ohio has played their best games at their home venue while Akron had had their poorest outings in road games this season. Akron also ranks a miserable 322nd nationally in overall performance consistency and gives Ohio a big advantage as they are ranked in the middle of the pack of the 357 D-1 programs. 

Akron loves shooting the ‘three’, but Ohio is a solid 12-4 ATS facing teams, who are averaging 21 or more 3-point shot attempts after game number 15 of the regular season and spanning the last two seasons. 

Akron head coach Groce is 3-12 ATS off a road win. 

From the machine learning applications, we are enlightened to the fact that Akron is 25-82-1 ATS in games in which they allowed 81 or more points and Ohio is an amazing 114-24-2 ATS for 83% ATS winning bets when they have scored 81 or more points. 

Texas State vs Arkansas State
7:00 PM ET, February 22, 2021
8-UNIT Best Bet on Texas State -3 points

Here are a few quick hitters that reinforce the projections produced by the machine learning applications. Texas State is 6-0 ATS after the 15th game of the regular season and now facing an opponent that is outscoring their opposition by at least 4 PPG in games played over the last two seasons. 

Texas State is 10-2 ATS in road games after habving won four of their last five games spanning the last five seasons.

Ark State 1-8 ATS after a win of three or fewer points spanning the last three seasons.

Steals will be a significant factor in this matychup and it favors Texas State, who ranks 127th nationally in quick scoring off of steals. Ark State ranks a miserable 297th in the defensive of this metric.

Texas Tech is the vastly better shooting team and going up against one of the worst defenses in NCAA basketball in Ark State.