|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-13-22||Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5||Top||7-6||Loss||-110||6 h 32 m||Show|
NY Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
4% best bet Under the posted total
Betting on the Under when the total is between 8.5 sand 10 runs in games played in September with and AL road teams that are starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.100 or lower on the season has earned a 72-39-7 record good for 65% winning bets and a nice juicy 27% ROI since the start of the 2017 season.
|09-13-22||Orioles v. Nationals UNDER 8.5||Top||4-3||Win||100||5 h 27 m||Show|
Baltimore vs Washington
4% 8-Unit Best Bet Over the posted total
Betting the OVER when it is between 7 and 8.5 runs with a toad team starting a pitcher that allows.5 or fewer home runs per start and now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher who is winless after five or more starts on the season has earned an 84-58-6 record for 62% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and a nice 25% ROI.
|09-07-22||Marlins v. Phillies OVER 7.5||Top||3-4||Loss||-115||4 h 38 m||Show|
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies
5% 10-UNIT MAX Best Bet on the OVER
Please be disciplined with these 10-UNIT MAX Bets and resist the temptation to ‘go for it’ based on my 11-2 MLB 10-UNIT Max Best Bet Record. Deal? Great!
The Phillies hold a 9-5 edge in 14 games played against the Marlins and have won seven of the past eight games. Marlins skipper Mattingly holds a 49-29 Over record in road games played in September and 34-20 Over when scoring two or fewer runs in three consecutive games and 28-13 Over in road games facing elite fielding teams averaging .5 or fewer errors per game. The Phillies are 37-24 Over as a home favorite between –125 and –175 and 53-34-5 OVER for 61% when lined as a home favorite between 120 and –200 over the last three seasons. Phillies are 20-12 Over as a home favorite and coming off a win against a divisional foe in which they allowed two or fewer runs and playing that same foe again in the current game.
From the predictive models, we are expecting the Phillies to score in at least three innings and with two of those three innings being multiple run innings. In past home games in which the Phillies met or exceeded these performance measures saw the Over post a 93-14-2 record good for 87% winning bets over the past five seasons and a remarkable 19-1 OVER for 95% winning bets just this season alone.
|08-25-22||Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 9||Top||6-5||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
Toronto vs Boston
4% 8-Unit best bet Over
Betting Over the total when priced at 9 or 9.5 runs with a team, Blue Jays, that has posted an OBP of .300 or lower spanning his last 15 games and is starting a pitcher that allowed no more than one earned run in his previous start has seen the Over go 135-78 for 64% winning bets over the past 5 seasons.
Jays are 31-16 Over when facing a starter that is averaging 1.75 or fewer walks per start in games played this season.
|08-24-22||Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5||Top||3-2||Win||100||5 h 60 m||Show|
Toronto vs Boston
4% 8-UNIT best bet on the Red Sox on the money line
4% 8-UNIT best bet UNDER the total
Toronto is 7-15 when playing their fifth or more game on the road this season.
Betting on underdogs of at least +150 on the money line, scores an average of 4.4 to 4.9 RPG on the season, following a loss of at least six runs, and now facing an AL opponent that is starting a pitcher that has an ERA between 4.75 and 5.75 on the season has earned a 17-17 record, but by averaging a +173 moneyline wager has produced a highly profitable 40% ROI over the last 20 seasons. Over the past five seasons, these dogs are 6-1 averaging a +177 dog producing an amazing 141% ROI. The Under is 7-0 in these games
|08-20-22||Astros v. Braves UNDER 7.5||Top||4-5||Loss||-110||11 h 35 m||Show|
Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves
5% 10-UNIT MAX Best bet on UNDER the posted total
Austin Riley hit a three-run homer off Lance McCullers Jr., Kyle Wright won his 15th game to tie for the NL lead, and the Atlanta Braves defeat the Houston Astros 6-2 on Friday night in the teams' first meeting since last year's World Series. The Braves have the third-best record at 30-14 since July 1 and are 18-9 since the all-star break. They have won 10 of their last 11 games. Teams that have won 10 of their last 11 games and are home favorites of not more than –145 have seen the Under produce a 22-12 record goof for 65% winners over the last five seasons.
From my predictive models we are expecting both starters to complete a combined total of at least 12 innings in this matchup. In past games occurring after the all-star break and with both teams having won 60% or more of their games on the season has seen the Under produce a 22-8-1 Under record good for 73% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and is 5-1 Under over the last three seasons.
|08-19-22||Royals v. Rays OVER 6.5||Top||3-2||Loss||-105||2 h 13 m||Show|
Kansas City vs Tampa Bay
Betting the Over in games with a total of 7 or fewer runs in a game played on Friday or is the first game of a series and with a struggling bullpen sporting an ERA of 7.00 or higher over their last 10 games has produced a 39-15-1 Over record good for 72% winning bets over the last 25 MLB seasons.
|07-16-22||Dodgers v. Angels UNDER 8.5||7-1||Win||100||8 h 39 m||Show|
Dodgers vs Angels
5% 10-UNIT MAX Best Bet UNDER the posted total
Betting the Under when the total is between 8.5 and 10 runs with the road team starting a pitcher with a solid WHIP of 1.05 or lower on the season and is an excellent fielding team averaging .5 or fewer errors per game on the season has earned a 69-36-2 record for 65.7% winners over the last five seasons. If the game is taking place in the second half of the regular season, after game number 81, the Under has earned a 14-7 record for 67% winning Under bets.
In Dodgers SP Urias last start he allowed 5 ER on just 3 hits over 2 innings. The last time he went two or fewer innings was back on April 10 at Colorado allowing 6 Runs and 3 ER on six hits. In his next start he completed five innings allowed zero ER, one hit, one walk, and five strikeouts in a 5-2 win over Cincinnati. I fully expect him to repeat this type of bounce back tonight. Angels are really struggling at the plate scoring 4.0 RPG and batting .230 for the season. Over the last seven games they have scored just 3.4 RPG and batted just .223. Dodgers pen has posted a 2.70 ERA with a .943 WHIP should Urias need any relief early. Dodgers are 15-5 for 75% Under winning bets on the road when the total has been 8 or 8.5 runs this season. Urias is 8-1 Under when working on five or six days of rest this season.
Take the UNDER for a 5% 10-UNIT max Best Bet tonight
|07-02-22||Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7.5||Top||2-7||Win||100||8 h 5 m||Show|
San Diego vs Los Angeles
7:15 EDT, July 2, 2022
4% best bet on the OVER
Padres are 16-7 Over when facing an elite fielding team averaging 0.5 or fewer errors on the season. Dodgers are 38-21 when facing a NL starter that has a WHIP of 1.15 or better over the last two seasons. San Diego is 29-14 in road games after a five-game span where their bullpen has struggled to a 6.50 or worse ERA. San Diego is 28-12 Over in road games following a five-game span with an OBP of .285 or worse over the last two seasons.
|06-28-22||Twins v. Guardians UNDER 8.5||Top||2-3||Win||100||1 h 26 m||Show|
Minnesota vs Cleveland
4% Under Best Bet
Here is a terrific betting angle that has produced a 30-10 Under record for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet the Under in games with a total of 8 or 8.5 runs with the team scoring between 4.4 and 4.9 RPG and facing a solid AL starter with an ERA of 4.25 or lower on the season.
Twins skipper Baldelli is 21-10 Under following a game in which they allowed no more than a single run in a win over a divisional rival. Twins won 11-1 in game-1 of this four-game series.
|06-27-22||Orioles v. Mariners UNDER 7.5||Top||9-2||Loss||-100||11 h 3 m||Show|
Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners
10:10 PM EDT, June 27, 2022
4% best bet on the Under
The Seattle Mariners have won five of six games by sweeping the Oakland A’s and taking two of three games from the LA Angels. The Mariners, though, continue to struggle offensively and have scored more than 5 runs in just three games over their last 15 games. The Orioles have been hot as well having won four of their last five games and took three of four games form the CWS. They now will play the Mariners for three games before ending their 9-game road trip with a 3-game series against the Minnesota Twins.
Tyler Wells will start for the Orioles, and he is 5-4 in 14 starts with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.098 WHIP. He has gone 3-0 over his last three starts with a stellar 2.12 ERA and a 1.176 WHIP. George Kirby starts for the Mariners and he is 2-2 in nine starts with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.122 WHIP. Over his last three starts he is 1-1 with a 2.65 ERA and a 1.176 WHIP including just three walks and 16 strikeouts spanning 17 innings of work. The Mariners bullpen has been nearly hitless over their last seven games sporting a 0.44 ERA and a .885 WHIP. The Orioles pen has been nearly equally as strong sporting a 1.11 ERA and a .740 WHIP over their last seven games.
This matchup points to the UNDER and the models grade it as a 4% betting opportunity tonight.
|06-21-22||Dodgers v. Reds UNDER 9.5||Top||8-2||Loss||-112||11 h 53 m||Show|
LA Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds
6:40 EDT, June 21
This betting algorithm/system has done very well over the past five seasons producing a 47-19 record for 71% winning bets. The requirements are to bet the Under in a game where the home team is from the NL and is starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 to 4.20 on the season and is coming off two starts allowing not more than a single earned run in each start. The Reds will start Tyler Mahle, who has a 4.10 ERA and a 1.219 WHIP in 14 starts this season. However, he has found his top form and posted a 1.71 ERA and 0.857 WHIP over his last three starts and has allowed just one earned run in his last two starts. Tony Gonsolin starts for the Dodgers and is a perfect 8-0 in 12 starts with a 1.42 ERA and a 0.821 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has posted a 0.49 ERA and a 0.900 WHIP with only 4 walks and 16 strikeouts spanning 18 2/3 innings of work. Runs will be tough to find I this pitcher’s duel and I like the Under as a 4% best bet.
|06-18-22||Phillies v. Nationals OVER 8.5||2-1||Loss||-115||9 h 9 m||Show|
Philadelphia vs Washington
4:35 EDT, June 18, 2022
4% Best Bet OVER
Philadelphia on a 12-2 win streak and the offense that is one of the best in MLB is coming together quite well. They took both games of the double-header Friday and will be playing Game-4 of this rare five-game series. Nationals are a bad team period. They have lost five straight and are 5-10 in June.
Philadelphia is 13-3 Over in road games when facing a NL foe with a team batting average of 0.255 or lower in games played this season, 12-2 Over when facing a poor bullpen that has posted an ERA of 4.20 or worse in games this season, and 9-1 Over when facing teams that are allowing 4.5 or more RPG this season.
|04-30-22||Mariners v. Marlins UNDER 7||Top||1-3||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
Seattle vs Miami
5% MAX Bet on the Miami Marlins on the money line
The Miami Marlins is hot having won 6 straight games and coming off a sweep of the Washington Nationals. Seattle had been nearly as hot having won four straight games and 7 of the past 8 games until losing the last two games of a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Marlins have tremendous pitching depth, and it has shined during their current 6-game win streak. Tow left-handers will do battle in this matchup with Robbie going for the Mariners and Jesus Luzardo going for the Marlins. In 8 career starts against the Marlins, Ray has amassed a 4-3 record (5-3 team record) with a strong 2.08 ERA and a 1.007 WHIP. Even more impressive is that he has allowed just 5 earned runs over his last six starts.
Luzardo is one of the only pitchers on the Marlins roster to be struggling somewhat sporting a 3.77 ERA and a 1.256 WHIP in three starts. However, he is coming off impressive road win over Atlanta in which he completed 5 innings, allowed 1 earned run with 4 walks and 8 strikeouts. I see that solid outing carrying over to this start as well.
The Marlins are batting just 0.180 and scoring 2.7 runs per game in 4-games against left-handed pitchers this season. Over the past 3 seasons, the Under has earned a 15-3 record for 83.3% winning bets when the Marlins have faced a left-handed starter and were priced as home dogs.
The Marlins is 13-3 Under when facing American League teams allowing 4.4 or fewer runs per game in games played over the last two seasons.
From my predictive models expect the starters in this matchup to complete 11.33 or more innings of work. Marlins are 35-16 Under for 70% winning bets over the last 15 MLB season and 7-2 Under over the last three seasons.
|10-27-21||Braves v. Astros UNDER 9||Top||2-7||Push||0||8 h 49 m||Show|
Atlanta vs Houston
8:09 PM EST, October 26, 2021
4-Unit Best Bet on the OVER
Betting the UNDER in October games in road games with one of the teams coming off two or more consecutive wins and the game has a total between 8.5 and 10-points has earned a 120-65 record for 65% winning bets spanning the past 25 playoff seasons.
Braves are 22-12 UNDER for 65% winning bets in road games when facing a team with a winning record this season.
|09-24-21||Astros v. A's OVER 8||2-14||Win||100||9 h 17 m||Show|
Houston vs Oakland
9:40 PM EST, September 24, 2021
4% (4-UNIT) Best Bet on the OVER
Betting on the OVER with a total of 8 or 8.5-tunsd and coming off a game in which the bullpen was hammered for 5 or more runs and playing the first game of a series has earned an outstanding 62-21 record for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons.
|09-24-21||Royals v. Tigers OVER 8.5||3-1||Loss||-115||7 h 46 m||Show|
Kansas City vs Detroit
7:10 PM EST, September 24, 2021
4% (4-UNIT) Best Bet OVER
From the predictive models both teams are expected to have at least 1 multiple-run-inning and the OVER has won 77% of the bests in these games.
Kansas City took two of three games at Cleveland prior to the postponement. Salvador Perez made history on Monday with his 46th homer this season, breaking Johnny Bench's single season record for most long balls by a primary catcher.
The Tigers are painfully aware how dangerous Perez is at the plate. He's hit three homers off their pitchers this season and 26 in his career, second only to the 28 he's hit against Minnesota. With both teams games getting cancelled Wednesday and had a scheduled day off Thursday, so they are well rested offensively, but the starters are pitching on normal rest.
|09-08-21||Twins v. Indians UNDER 9||Top||3-0||Win||100||11 h 37 m||Show|
Minnesota vs Cleveland
6:10 PM EST, Wednesday, September 8, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER
Quick Hitters: Twins manager Baldelli is 37-19 UNDER in September played games. Francona is 88-48 when facing a team that averages 0.33 steals-per-game when the game occurs in the second half of the regular season. Cleveland is 50-28 UNDER playing with double revenge in games played over the last three seasons. Minnesota is 19-7 UNDER following three consecutive games throwing at least 4 innings in each one, spanning the last two seasons.
4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the total
|08-25-21||Giants v. Mets OVER 8.5||3-2||Loss||-110||4 h 46 m||Show|
San Francisco vs NY Mets
7:10 PM EST, Wednesday, August 25, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet OVER
Giants are 35-17 OVER following a game in which they allowed no more than one run in games played over the last three seasons.
From the predictive side, we learn that the Mets in home games have earned a 13-4 OVER record following a game in which they scored no more than one run and had at least one Multiple-Run-Inning in the current game, over the last three seasons. The Giants are 16-8 on the road following a game in which held their opponent to no more than one run and that opponent had at least one Multiple-Run-Inning in the current game, over the last three seasons.
4-Unit Best Bet OVER
|08-25-21||Rays v. Phillies UNDER 8.5||Top||7-4||Loss||-120||4 h 42 m||Show|
Tampa Bay vs Philadelphia
7:05 PM EST, Wednesday, August 25, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER
Betting the UNDER in a matchup where the road team has a tremendous bullpen posting a 1.25 or lower season-to-date WHIP and is starting a pitcher that was hammered allowing 5 or more runs in each of his last starts has produced a 30-9 UNDER record good for 77% winning bets over the last five seasons.
Rays skipper Cash is 72-48 UNDER in a road game after allowing 4 runs or less in three consecutive games. Phillies are 15-5 in home games when facing a starting pitcher that is averaging 1.75 or fewer walks-per-start in games played this season.
From the predictive models we learn that the UNDER is 11-3 for 79% winning bets in home Phillies games in which Wheeler pitches into at least the start of the 7th inning.
|08-18-21||Blue Jays v. Nationals OVER 9||Top||5-8||Win||100||1 h 10 m||Show|
Toronto vs Washington
7:05 PM EST, Tuesday, August 17, 2021
5-UNIT Best Bet OVER
Here are a few quick hitters supporting this OVER play. Washington is 24-14 OVER when facing a team that averages 7 or more strikeouts-per-game. Toronto is 20-8 OVER as a favorite of -125 to -175 in games played this season.
From the predictive side of things, Toronto is 15-6-1 OVER for 71.4% winning bets this season and 49-8 OVER for 86% winning bets in road games in which they had two or more multiple-run-scoring innings spanning the past three seasons. The Nationals are 49-5 OVER for 91% winners in home games their guest had two or more multiple-run-scoring innings spanning the past three seasons.
|08-16-21||Padres v. Rockies UNDER 13||5-6||Win||100||3 h 52 m||Show|
San Diego vs Colorado
8:40 PM EST, Monday, August 16, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Colorado Rockies
San Diego is a money losing 22 units on a 32-30 record when facing a team with a losing record on the season; 12-15 SU this season as a road favorite against a losing record team. Rockies are 30-15 in home games facing a NL club that is batting below 0.250 on the season; 8-2 in home games facing a solid bullpen sporting an ERA of 3.50 or lower for the season.
Bet Colorado for a 4-Unit Best bet
|08-16-21||Astros v. Royals OVER 10||6-7||Win||100||2 h 21 m||Show|
Houston vs Kansas City
8:10 EST, August 16, 2021
4-UNIT play on the Kansas City Royals
Houston is a money-burning 9-20 in road games and facing a host that is averaging 2.75 or fewer extra-base-hits-per-game on the season. Houston is 13-19 in road games played in August over the last three months. Houston SP Jake Odorizzi is just 3-6 with a 5.37 ERA and a 1.387 WHIP in 13 career starts against KC.
From the predictive models and machine learning applications, when the Royals have been home dogs and their starter completed more innings than the opponent’s starter, has earned a 26-24 record, but by averaging a +141 underdog wager made the $100 bettor $1,200 in profits for a nice 22% ROI in games played over the last three seasons.
|08-16-21||Angels v. Yankees UNDER 8.5||Top||1-2||Win||104||1 h 14 m||Show|
LA Angels vs NY Yankees
7:05 PM EST, August 16, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER
This is a rescheduled game from July 1Angels are 11-2 UNDER in road games when facing an AL team that is batting 0.255 or lower on the seasons; 6-0 UNDER in road games following a game that had a combined score of 4 or fewer runs. Cole, who is coming off COVID-19, is just 3-6 as a home favorite of -145 or higher this season. Yankees are 18-7 UNDER following six or more consecutive road games. Angels are 7-0 in road games after scoring and allowing three or fewer runs in games played this season. Jose Suarez makes his first start against the Yankees of his career and he has a great advantage pitching to batters who have never faced him. On June 30th, Chapman, blew a 4-run lead throwing in the rain as the Angels scored 7 runs in the 9th to get a 11-8 victory.
Bet the UNDER for a 4-UNIT Best Bet
|08-13-21||Reds v. Phillies OVER 8.5||Top||6-1||Loss||-104||3 h 3 m||Show|
Cincinnati vs Philadelphia
7:05 PM EST, August 13, 2021
4-UNIT best Bet on the OVER
The weather has been scorching hot with humidity in the mid-90% range. The ball will fly out of Citizen’s Bank Park and pitcher’s will be taxed by these difficult conditions. 60% of the betting tickets are on the UNDER, but 63% of the money is on the OVER. Reds are 21-10 OVER when facing a struggling bullpen that converts no more than 38% of their save opportunities this season; 25-12 when facing a starter that averages 5 or more K’s-per-start, this season.
Bet the OVER as a 4-UNIT Play
|08-07-21||Pirates v. Reds OVER 10.5||Top||3-11||Win||100||7 h 36 m||Show|
Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati
7:10 PM EST, Saturday, August 7, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER
The Reds are 33-15 OVER when playing against a losing record team this season and 10-2 when that opponent has a win percentage below 38%. They are also 13-2 OVER when facing a NL foe that is allowing an average of 5 or more runs-per-game this season.
Bet the OVER as a 4-UNIT Best Bet
|07-28-21||Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7.5||Top||8-0||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
LA Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants
9:45 PM EST, July 28, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER
The OVER is a solid 142-77-2 for 65% winning bets spanning the last 25 seasons involving a team that has an above average slugging percentage of 0.425 and higher and is batting 0.225 or lower spanning their last 10 games and facing a team that has a strong bullpen posting a season-to-date WHIP of 1.35 or lower.
Dodgers manager Roberts is 26-13 OVER when facing a team that is batting 0.245 or worse; 41-20 OVER in road games facing a NL opponent that is batting 0.250 or lower with the game taking place in the second half of the season.
Dodgers are 13-2 OVER off a loss to a divisional rival this season.
|07-28-21||Rockies v. Angels UNDER 9.5||Top||7-8||Loss||-115||10 h 32 m||Show|
Colorado vs LA Angels
9:38PM EST, July 28, 2021
8-Unit Best Bet UNDER the posted total
Colorado skipper Black is a solid 53-27 UNDER as a road underdog between +150 and +199; 37-19 when facing an AL West opponent. Rockies are on a 23-9 run UNDER when facing an AL West opponent over the last two seasons. Colorado is 20-9 UNDER when facing a AL team that is batting 0.265 or lower in games played over the last two seasons.
Team that are playing their last game of the current series, starting a left-handed starter, lost the previous game by at least 5-runs, and are installed as –200 to –225 home favorites are 11-6-1 UNDER for 65% winning bets.
Bet the UNDER for a 8-UNIT amount.
Toronto vs Boston
7:10 ET, July 27, 2021
8-Unit Best Bet on the UNDER
Toronto is 20-8 UNDER when facing a host that has a winning record in the second-half of the season. Boston is 11-3 when facing an AL team with a 0.265 batting average or lower in games played in the second half of this season. Boston is 13-5 UNDER when facing a team that is averaging at least 1.25 home runs per game this season.
Bet the UNDER as a 8-UNIT (4%) best bet.
|07-24-21||Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5||Top||0-1||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
Colorado vs LA Dodgers
9:10 PM EST, July 24, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the UNDER
Rockies SP Freeland is 9-1 UNDER when facing teams that are outscoring their opponents by at least one run-per-game and 14-3 UNDER when facing teams that are averaging 1.25 or more home runs-per-game. He is also 18-2 UNDER as a road dog of at least +150 and 13-3 in road games played at night spanning the last three seasons.
Betting the UNDER in game lined at 7 to 8.5 runs involving a road team that has a solid 2.50 ERA over his last 5 starts and after a game in which their bullpen blew a save has earned a 47-13 UNDER record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. This angle is already 8-2 this season.
|07-24-21||Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8||Top||1-4||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
Washington vs Baltimore
6:35 PM EST, July 24, 2021
4-Unit Best bet OVER the posted total.
Here are a few quick hitting bullet points supporting and reinforcing the OVER bet identified first by my machine learning applications. Baltimore is 33-17 OVER when facing a SP that is allowing an average of 5.5 or fewer-hits-per-game on the season, in games played this season. Washington is 15-5 OVER in games played over the last two seasons in which the total was 9 or 9.5-runs.
Scherzer is struggling with a 6.48 ERA over his last three starts and allowing 11 ER in his last two starts at home and on the road against the San Diego Padres.
Bet the OVER for a 4-UNIT amount.
|07-24-21||Nationals v. Orioles UNDER 9.5||Top||3-5||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
Texas vs Houston
4-Units betting the UNDER.
7:10 PM EST, July 24, 2021
Keep an eye out for Texas starter Kyle Gibson in the news today. This may be his last start before being traded to a contender and it is possible, he could get moved prior to this start. He must start for this play to be valid. He is 4-2 with a 2.41 ERA and a 1.219 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Astros. He has faced the Astros three times in 2021 and has pitched well in each one. On June 15 he completed six innings and allowed 1 ER on seven hits. May 21, he completed 6 innings, allowing 1 ER on four hits, and on May 16, he completed 7 innings allowing 2 ER on four hits.
Texas has completely fallen apart as a MLB team having lost 10 consecutive games. Over their last 7 games they have averaged just 1.4 RPG and batted 0.156 with a 0.214 OBP.
Houston is 19-2 against Texas with the UNDER sporting a 13-8 record spanning the last three seasons. In 2021, the UNDER is 6-2-1 in this matchup.
Take the UNDER
|07-23-21||Tigers v. Royals OVER 10.5||Top||3-5||Loss||-105||7 h 15 m||Show|
Detroit vs Kansas City
5-Unit best bet on the OVER
The Tigers have suddenly won seven consecutive games and are on the verge of being included in the AL Wild Card race as one of the long shot contenders. They are hitting the ball and scoring runs. They are 9-4-1 OVER for 69% in road games and facing a left-handed SP. They are also 16-5 OVER this season when facing opponents that average three or fewer walks-per-game.
Detroit will have Wily Peralta on the hill and in six starts he has posted a 1.71 ERA and 0.947 WHIP and very impressive 0.47 ERA and a 0.842 WHIP spanning this last three starts. He made his first start June 19 and allowed 5 ER in an 8-3 loss to the Angels. Since, he ash allowed 1 ER over his last 5 starts, but he is vulnerable to a significant regression in this matchup based on the machine learning applications.
Kris Bubic will start for Kansas City and he has been hammered to the tune of a 10.38 ERA and a 2.154 WHIP spanning his last three starts. He has allowed 5 ER in each of these starts.
Take the OVER
|07-10-21||Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 7.5||Top||6-0||Win||103||8 h 17 m||Show|
St. Louis vs Chicago Cubs
7:15 PM EST, July 10, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER
Betting the UNDER with a road team in games where the total is 7 to 8.5 with a starting pitcher posting a season-to-date WHIP is 1.250 to 1.300 and who gave up no earned runs in his last start has earned an outstanding 39-16-5 record good for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons.
Kim is in great form posting an ERA of 2.76 and WHIP of 1.164 over his last three starts. Davies has posted a strong 2.40 ERA and a 1.067 WHIP spanning his last three starts.
Cardinals skipper Schildt is 16-4 UNDER following a game in which his team allowed 10 or more runs.
|07-10-21||Pirates v. Mets UNDER 6||Top||6-2||Loss||-105||6 h 31 m||Show|
Pittsburgh Pirates vs NY Mets
4:10 PM EST, July 10, 2021
Tyler Anderson (L) vs Marcus Stroman (R)
4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER
You may have seen my Tweet earlier this morning that stated the Mets are 6-0 UNDER in games with a posted total of 5.5 or lower-runs this season. DeGrom has accounted for 4 of these games and Stroman, the other two games. Further, the Mets are 16-5 UNDER making $1,100 for the $100 bet in home games with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season this season; 21-9 UNDER making $1,120 per $100 bet as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. Stroman is 7-0 UNDER in home starts this season.
Pittsburgh will have LH Tyler Anderson on the rubber and he is great form posting a 2.41 ERA and a 0.911 WHIP spanning his last three starts. In 6 day-game starts, he has a 3.06 ERA and 1.076 WHIP. Stroman is not in top form, but he has a strong history of bringing his best starts following a poor stretch. In 14 grass field starts, he has posted a 2/03 ERA and 1.102 WHIP and has allowed only 6 HR.
Take the UNDER.
|06-23-21||Nationals v. Phillies OVER 9||Top||13-12||Win||101||3 h 43 m||Show|
Washington vs Philadelphia
1:05 ET, June 23, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER
Betting the OVER in game with a total between 8.5 and 10-runs, the home team has a paltry 0.300 or lower slugging percentage on the season and is starting average starting pitcher sporting a WHIP between 1.35 and 1.49 for the season and is now facing a team putting out a solid starting pitcher sporting a WHIP of 1.25 or less on the season has earned a 46-15 record for 76% winning bets over the last 25 seasons.
Washington starts Erick Fedde, who has been incredibly good and has not allowed an earned run in his last three starts spanning the past 19 innings of work. However, my predictive models indicate that the scoreless innings streak is going to come to an abrupt end this afternoon. The Phillies have Velasquez on the hill, who has been largely inconsistent and in three days starts has been shelled to the tune of an 8.25 ERA and 1.667 WHIP spanning just 12 innings of work. In nine grass starts he has allowed 10 home runs.
From the predictive side of things, we learn that the Phillies in home games that saw both starting pitchers combine for fewer than 10 innings pitched, the OVER gets the money with 38-15-1 record and 72% winning bets over the last three seasons. Moreover, 12-5 OVER if the game starts before 6:00 ET.
|05-22-21||Tigers v. Royals UNDER 8.5||Top||5-7||Loss||-100||7 h 41 m||Show|
Detrtoit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals
4:10 PM EDT, May 22, 2021
4-UNIT Best Bet UNDER the posted total
The Tigers starting pitcher Mathew Boyd is pitching well and sports a 2.45 ERA on the seasons. The Royals counter with Brady Singer, who is also in decent form with a 3.96 ERA on the season. In fact, the Tigers starters are allowing a solid 1.625 earned rtuns per game.
The Under is 7-0 in Boyds last seven starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. The UNDER is Under is 7-1 in Boyds last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Under is 10-2 in Royals last 12 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Bet the UNDER for 4-UNITS on a 3,4, and 5-UNIT scale.
|05-15-21||Yankees v. Orioles OVER 8.5||Top||8-2||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
NY YANKEES (21 - 17) at BALTIMORE (16 - 22)
5-UNIT Best Bet on the OVER
This betting angle has produced an 82-37 record for 69% winning bets over the last 20 seasons. The requirements are to bet OVER in a game with a total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the road team has a hot starting pitcher in excellent form sporting an ERA of 2.50 or lower spanning his last three starts and is batting just 0.230 or worse over their last 15 games.
Yankees are a solid 36-15 OVER in road games facing struggling teams outscored by their opponents by 0.5 or more runs-per-game in games played over the last 3 seasons. Yankees are 22-9 OVER in road games after having won four of their last five games over the last three seasons.
The Orioles are 18-8 OVER since 2017, coming off four consecutive games scoring four or fewer runs, and averaging at least 1.1 multiple-run-innings-per-game on the season.
Take the OVER for a 5-UNIT Best Bet
|10-01-20||Cardinals v. Padres OVER 9||Top||9-11||Win||105||4 h 4 m||Show|
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres
Game 2 NL Wild Card best of 3
7-Star NL Total Best bet Titan ‘OVER’
This betting system has earned a solid 80-40-1 record for 67% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and require us to bet the ‘OVER’ with NL home teams with a minimum slugging-percentage of 0.430 on the season, has been hitting just 0.225 or lower spanning their last 10 games and is facing a team with a goods bullpen posting a WHIP of 1.35 or lower on the season.
Padres are 14-5 OVER facing teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season; 25-11 OVER in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.
|09-30-20||Cardinals v. Padres OVER 8.5||Top||7-4||Win||100||5 h 45 m||Show|
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres
Game 1 NL Wild Card best of 3
7-Star NL Total Best bet Titan ‘OVER’
This betting system has earned a solid 79-39-1 record for 67% winning bets over the last 20 seasons and require us to bet the ‘OVER’ with NL home teams with a minimum slugging-percentage of 0.430 on the season, has been hitting just 0.225 or lower spanning their last 10 games and is facing a team with a goods bullpen posting a WHIP of 1.35 or lower on the season.
Padres are 40-20 ‘OVER’ when facing a starting pitcher who is undefeated after 5 or more starts on the season; 13-5 ‘OVER’ when facing a team averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. Cardinals are 13-4 ‘OVER’ in road games after a game where they stranded three or less runners on base over the last two seasons.
|08-13-20||Brewers v. Cubs OVER 8.5||Top||2-4||Loss||-100||5 h 49 m||Show|
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
The machine learning toolshed projects that the Brewers and Cubs will combine to score in at least five innings and have two or more multiple run innings. Teams that have met or exceeded these measures and the host has a win percentage above 60% and the guest has a losing record have combined to post a 1960-341-111 record for 85% wins and a 60% ROI since 2004. When the opponent has been the Cubs being the host the ‘over’ has gone 30-8 for 80% winning bets and a 55% ROI.
PARX Casino in Pennsylvania has a total line of 8 runs paying -114 vig and I would highly recommend doing your best to get a line of 8 runs. It always pays to shop for the best line and is not a reflection that I think only nine runs will be scored. There is a 39% probability that one of these teams will score 8 or more runs on their own merit.
Cubs are to a fast start, but their bullpen is certainly not part of it. The relievers are sporting a 6.56 ERA and a 1.521 WHIP on the young season. It is doubtful that Cubs starter Yu Darvish will complete 6 innings so the bullpen will be exposed by the Brewers.
Take the ‘OVER’ for a 10-Star Best Bet Titan
|08-03-20||Pirates v. Twins UNDER 9.5||Top||4-5||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
PITTSBURGH VS MINNESOTA
Here is a betting system that has earned a 31-7 record good for 82% winning bets over the last five seasons. The query instructs us to play ‘under’ with all teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 and is a below average NL hitting team batting no higher than 0.255 and with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last five games and is now facing a team with a very good bullpen sporting an ERA of 3.33 or lower on the season.
In a short sprint of 60-games no team can afford a four-game losing streak as the Pirates have suffered. They also are 0-4 in 1-run games so far this season. Tonight they start a 2-game home and home series with the Minnesota Twins, who are 7-2, on a 3-game win streak, and have won 7-of-9 games to start the season.
The Pirates have struggled at the plate and the Twins pitching has been the best in baseball allowing just nine runs on their last seven games. Twins manager Baldelli is an outstanding 11-1 ‘UNDER’ after a game in which his bullpen threw 6 or more innings.
Ryan’s MLB 7-Star Best Bet Titan Total