Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-24-17 | Wolves v. Lakers OVER 218.5 | 119-130 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Angeles Lakers take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night. The posted total here is high, but it isn't high enough. In the past six games, the Los Angeles Lakers rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and it isn't even close. Los Angeles is allowing a ridiculous 1.209 points per possession in their last six games. They've clearly given up on this end of the floor. The second worst defense in the NBA in the last six games is the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are allowing 1.142 points per possession during that time. Both teams rank near the middle of the pack in offensive efficiency. The offenses should get plenty of open looks in this one. The Lakers continue to push the pace, and they rank in the top five in the NBA on a consistent basis in tempo. This game fits a nice late season over angle. Two teams who both have a winning percentage of 45% or less and the spread is 7 points or less either way. The game must be played in the last 12 games of the regular season. In the past ten years, in these spots, the over is hitting at a 61% clip. The over is 5-0 in the Lakers last 5 vs. the Western Conference. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the Timberwolves last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. |
|||||||
03-21-17 | Bulls v. Raptors UNDER 201.5 | 120-122 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Chicago Bulls have been the worst offense in the NBA in the past ten games, and it isn't even close. Chicago is averaging 0.978 points per possession during that time. The second worst offense during that time is averaging 1.02 points per possession. Chicago ranks ninth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Toronto Raptors rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Raptors have been able to manage pretty well without Kyle Lowry thanks to their improved defense. They should play well against this bad Chicago offense. On the other side, Toronto's offensive efficiency numbers are down without Lowry, and that should come as no surprise. A look at the recent pace of both teams shows both of these teams in the bottom ten in the league in tempo. Chicago is actually in the bottom five in tempo in their last five contests. The under is 8-2 in the Bulls last 10 games. The under is 11-5 in the Raptors last 16 games. Take the under here. |
|||||||
03-18-17 | Bucks v. Warriors UNDER 217 | 92-117 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Saturday Night CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks are now playing at the slowest pace of any team in the league, and it isn't even very close. If you look at their last 11 games, Milwaukee's games are nearly a full possession per game slower than anyone else in the NBA. The Bucks have decided that they want to win games by slowing things down and winning low scoring contests. Golden State's offense is obviously very good, but on the whole, they have been a lot less efficient than normal of late. Their totals continued to be posted too high. The under is a whopping 36-17 in their last 53 games. Golden State is actually 19th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last 19 games. Golden State has been top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency all year long. With Milwaukee slowing things down and Golden State playing good defense, this total is several points too high. Take the under. |
|||||||
03-13-17 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 202 | 93-113 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Monday MONEY* The Milwaukee Bucks have drastically slowed down their tempo of late. Milwaukee is playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last ten games. The Bucks also rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the last ten games. Milwaukee has been putting in a lot more of an effort on the defensive end, and that has led to their much better play of late. Memphis ranks as the sixth best defense in the NBA for the year as a whole when it comes to defensive efficiency. In their last few games, Memphis has been bad defensively. Who they have played has something to do with it though (Houston and LAC for example). The Grizzlies rank as the third slowest paced team in the NBA for the year as a whole. I think Memphis brings better effort in this one after a recent bad stretch. This game should be played at a slow pace. The early sharp money is on the under. The under is 5-0 in the Bucks last 5 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following an ATS win. The under is 10-1-1 in the last 12 meetings between these teams. Take the under. |
|||||||
03-12-17 | Heat v. Pacers UNDER 207 | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Miami Heat have relied on point guard Goran Dragic very heavily this year. Dragic is questionable for this game with an eye injury. Dragic had extreme swelling around his eye last night. He will likely either miss this game, or be less than 100 percent. Indiana has completely changed the way they play of late. They ranked as one of the top ten in tempo through the first few months of the year. Of late, the Pacers have slowed the game down a lot. The oddsmakers have had a hard time adjusting their totals. Miami and Indiana are both moving slowly of late, in fact. In their last five contests, Miami ranks 25th in tempo and Indiana ranks 27th. In that same period, both of these teams rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. I think this total is several points too high. The under is 4-0 in the Heat's last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 following a win by 10 points or more. The under is 4-0 in the Pacers last 4 vs. the NBA Southeast. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
03-10-17 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 209 | 85-99 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers meet in a divisional battle on Friday night in Milwaukee. For the year as a whole, Indiana ranks at exactly the midway point for NBA teams in terms of tempo. The Pacers ranked in the top ten for several months. They have changed their ways of late. Indiana now ranks as one of the five slowest teams in the league in their last 10 games. Milwaukee is actually playing at the single slowest pace of any team in the league in their last eight games. A total set this high with teams playing that slow means you have to have some great shooting numbers to get over the total. In the last eight games, both of these teams rank in the top 12 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The last game between these two finished at 216 points, but the teams combined to make 27 three pointers and Milwaukee was 17/31 from 3. With both teams playing better on defense of late, and playing some more defense, I think this one stays lower. The under is 6-0 in the Pacers last 6 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more. The under is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more last game. A 32-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
03-05-17 | Pacers v. Hawks UNDER 209 | 97-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a terrible defensive effort against the Cleveland Cavs on Friday night. Cleveland set a new NBA record with 25 made three pointers in that game (out of 46 attempts). The Hawks have been an up and down defense this year, but they have the talent to defend well. I think that 135 point number that the Cavs dropped on them will help them be more motivated on the defensive end in this game. Indiana has to decided to slow down the pace of late. The Pacers are in the bottom five in the league in tempo in their last eight games. Sunday early games have been great under plays in the long term in the NBA. This is an angle that sits at almost 56% for the last ten years. The under is 6-0 in the Pacers last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more. The under is 4-0 in the Hawks last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 following a loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more last game. In all, a 31-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
03-01-17 | Wizards v. Raptors UNDER 210 | 105-96 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Toronto Raptors aren't the same without Kyle Lowry. They are playing at the second slowest tempo in the league in their last five games. Toronto has scored 94 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games. Toronto and Washington both rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. They rank 14th and 16th in offensive efficiency. I think the oddsmakers are having a hard time adjusting the totals without Lowry in the lineup for Toronto. Their last game against New York was just 92-91. The first meeting between these two teams this year finished at 216 points. Note that Lowry had 18 points there. Also, the two teams shot 56% and 58% from the floor. They shouldn't shoot it that well here. The under is 11-1 in Toronto's last 12 vs. the Eastern Conference. Take the under. |
|||||||
02-26-17 | Blazers v. Raptors UNDER 213 | 106-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Toronto Raptors are going to look a lot different without Kyle Lowry on the floor. Toronto has been slowing down the pace lately even with Lowry, and I think they'll slow the game down even more without him. Lowry means so much to this team, and it would surprise me if they don't need some adjusting on offense without him. Toronto has played at the single slowest tempo of anyone in the NBA in their last five games. That's an important statistic, and it means that a total like 213 is awfully high, especially when they are missing their point guard. Portland's tempo is slightly slower than the league average, so there's no reason to expect any really fast pace in this game. This should be a game played in the halfcourt. Additionally, Sunday has been the best under day in the NBA in the long term by a large margin. I'll take the under here. |
|||||||
02-24-17 | Suns v. Bulls OVER 215.5 | 121-128 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star TGIF NBA Play of Day* In the last three games before the NBA All Star Break, the Phoenix Suns played at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA by a wide margin. I don't see any reason to expect them to slow down after the break. The Chicago Bulls and Phoenix Suns both rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. These are two teams who are really struggling on the defensive end. Jimmy Butler is healthier now than he was the last time these two teams met. Dwyane Wade has been cleared to play, and he is expected to play in this game. The first game out of the All Star Break the over has cashed at better than 60% in the past three seasons. I look for the rested legs to help the shooting numbers here. The last game between these two got to 212, and there were less free throws than normal. All things considered, I think this line is a little too low. Take the over. |
|||||||
02-23-17 | Hornets v. Pistons OVER 207 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Detroit Pistons have decided to play faster as of late. For the season, they rank in the bottom five in tempo in the NBA. In their last ten games, they are playing at almost exactly the league average in pace. Charlotte is playing faster as well. They are in the top ten in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. Charlotte's offense has been really inefficient of late, but I expect the All Star Break to have helped them out here. In the last three years, the over is hitting at 60.6% in team's first game back from the NBA All Star break. It makes sense to me. No defense is played at the All Star Game, and that has some follow through. Additionally, the players are better rested and that helps bring higher shooting percentages. Take the over here. |
|||||||
02-23-17 | Blazers v. Magic OVER 213 | 112-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA System POWER Play* The Orlando Magic scored 79 points in their final game before the NBA All Star break. That sets up a really nice system play on the over in this game. Teams who are at home and scored 80 points or less in their last game and went under the total in that game, are a good over play in the next game. When that next game is a non-divisional game as this one is, the over is 162-100 in the last ten years (61.8% overs). Essentially, this is a system that looks to play overs when a team is coming off a terrible offensive effort. It doesn't hurt that both of these teams rank in the bottom six in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games either. In the last three years, the over is hitting at 60.6% in team's first game back from the NBA All Star break as well. It makes sense to me. No defense is played at the All Star Game, and that has some follow through. Additionally, the players are better rested and that helps bring higher shooting percentages. Take the over. |
|||||||
02-15-17 | Spurs v. Magic UNDER 205.5 | 107-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The San Antonio Spurs are playing with revenge from a surprising defeat at the hands of the Orlando Magic earlier this year. Though I do lean with the Spurs ATS here, I like the under better. San Antonio is easily first in the NBA in the past eight games in defensive efficiency. This team is playing some terrific defense right now. Orlando's offense ranks among the worst in the NBA in efficiency. The Magic have been much more efficient on the defensive end at home as well. Neither team likes to run, and the tempo here should stay much slower than an average NBA game. Over the years, when the Spurs are playing with revenge, the under has been a great play. The Spurs typically win and get their revenge by focusing on the defensive end of the floor. An important reason why I like this play is regression to the mean for the Magic in 3 point shooting numbers. Orlando shot 57% from long range last game and now they face a very good defense. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in the Spurs last 6 after scoring 100 or more last game. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a straight up win. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
02-08-17 | Clippers v. Knicks OVER 218.5 | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past ten games. The Clippers are giving up 119 points per game in their last seven road games. For the year as a whole, the Clippers are allowing 1.012 points per possession at home. They are allowing a stunning 1.097 points per possession on the road. That's one of the biggest differences in the NBA. The Knicks are a mess right now. New York is actually slightly worse on defense at home than on the road. They are much more efficient on offense at home though. These teams both rank in the middle of the pack in tempo, but I see the offensive efficiencies being very high here. The over is 6-1 in the Clippers last 7 games. The over is 18-9 in their 27 road games this year. Take the over. |
|||||||
02-01-17 | Bucks v. Jazz UNDER 198.5 | 88-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Utah Jazz and Milwaukee Bucks both play at a very slow pace. Utah is the slowest paced team in the NBA for the year as a whole. Milwaukee plays more than 3 possessions slower on the road than they do at home, and Utah will look to control the tempo here. No reason to expect a quick pace. The three referees assigned to this game are all very good long term under referees. Each of them has a history of calling less fouls than the average official, and they all have a long history in the league. 62% of the bets are on the under, but a whopping 90% of the money is on the under. I agree with the sharp money here. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-29-17 | Thunder v. Cavs UNDER 220 | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Cavs/Thunder NBA MONEY* The Cleveland Cavs and Oklahoma City Thunder meet on Sunday afternoon on ABC. Sunday day games have hit at 55% to the under in the past ten years in the NBA. Yesterday, every single game on the NBA schedule went over the posted total. Oklahoma City is now without Enes Kanter who is out with an injury. Kanter has been a consistent double digit scorer for the team, and his loss has to hurt the offense. Russell Westbrook already has to do a lot for the Thunder on offense, and now his load gets even heavier. The under is a stunning 78-34-3 in Cleveland's last 115 Sunday games, so they have been one of the strongest Sunday under teams. With a total set this high, and OKC having question marks on offense without Kanter, I'm taking the under here. |
|||||||
01-29-17 | Knicks v. Hawks UNDER 211.5 | 139-142 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Atlanta Hawks host the New York Knicks in a Sunday afternoon game. Atlanta is 8-2 to the under in their last 10 Sunday games. New York is 19-7 to the under in their last 26 games. Sunday has consistently been the best under day in the NBA in the past ten years, and that has been the case again this year. Yesterday, every single NBA game that was played went over the posted total. That kind of thing usually leads to some value on the under in the following day or days. The Knicks are likely to be without Derrick Rose in this one. New York is playing at the 25th fastest tempo in the NBA, which means a total set this high is hard for them to reach without some great offense. Atlanta's defense is slightly better at home and the Knicks have actually been better on the road on the defensive end. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-22-17 | Suns v. Raptors UNDER 221 | 115-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Historically, Sunday is by far and away the best day to play unders in the NBA. That is especially the case when they are afternoon or earlier than usual games for the teams. In the past ten years alone, if you played every single under in the NBA on Sunday that starts at 6 pm eastern or earlier, you would have cashed 54.8% of the time. That's a pretty decent edge, and when you combine it with other factors, I like this under. Phoenix was playing at the fastest pace in the NBA for a while, but they have drastically changed the way they play of late. The Suns rank 27th in the league (4th slowest) in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. Some high shooting numbers have allowed 5 of the 10 to go over, but I see this as giving us extra value on the under. A total set this high is hard to attain when one team is slowing the game down. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-22-17 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 206 | 73-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Historically, Sunday is by far and away the best day to play unders in the NBA. That is especially the case when they are afternoon or earlier than usual games for the teams. In the past ten years alone, if you played every single under in the NBA on Sunday that starts at 6 pm eastern or earlier, you would have cashed 54.8% of the time. The under is 7-0 in Dallas' last 7 Sunday games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the Lakers and the Mavericks. The Lakers have been a great over team at home, but they are even on the road in over/unders. Dallas is playing at the slowest tempo of any team in the NBA in the past ten games. The Mavericks are also last in the NBA in trips to the free throw line. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-22-17 | Warriors v. Magic UNDER 224.5 | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Golden State Warriors are coming off their big revenge win over the Houston Rockets on Friday night. Golden State has been extremely motivated for multiple games this week. This is a spot where they might be less motivated to kill the Magic. Instead of taking Orlando though, I'm taking the under. Golden State's defense has been much better of late. Golden State now leads the NBA in defensive efficiency. Yes, the Warriors can pile up the points, but they can play defense as well. Orlando is middle of the pack in defensive efficiency, and they are subpar in offensive efficiency. Sunday is by far and away the best day to play unders in the NBA. That is especially the case when they are afternoon or earlier than usual games for the teams. In the past ten years alone, if you played every single under in the NBA on Sunday that starts at 6 pm eastern or earlier, you would have cashed 54.8% of the time. That's a pretty decent edge, and when you combine it with other factors, I like this under. The under is a perfect 4-0 in Golden State's 4 road games on Sunday this year. The under is 3-0 in their 3 games as a double digit road favorite on Sunday. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-20-17 | Pacers v. Lakers OVER 220 | 96-108 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA on ESPN CASH* The Los Angeles Lakers lost 115-108 in Indiana earlier this year. I think we see another very high scoring game (probably even higher than the first meeting) on Friday night in Los Angeles. Indiana's home road splits are really interesting. The over is 11-10 in their home games this year. The over is 13-7 in their 20 road games this year. Why is that? Well, Indiana is 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency when playing at home this year. On the road, Indiana ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 1.004 points per possession at home. They are giving up 1.111 points per possession on the road. That's a massive difference. In the last ten games, both the Pacers and the Lakers rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In that same period, both of these teams rank in the top 14 in offensive efficiency. The over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these two. Take the over. |
|||||||
01-17-17 | Wolves v. Spurs UNDER 202.5 | 114-122 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Phoenix Suns. San Antonio has historically been a great under bet in this situation. The Spurs have an elite defense, and when they are motivated, that defense looks even better. San Antonio ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year. It may surprise you to hear that Minnesota ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Timberwolves are starting to buy into what Tom Thibodeau is selling them on that end of the floor. Minnesota has slowed down their pace of play drastically as well. The Wolves are 28th in the NBA in pace in the last 10 games. The Spurs are 26th. We have a total of 202.5 with two defenses playing great and with two teams who consistently slow the pace down. I think the Spurs hold the Timberwolves to a low number here. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-16-17 | Blazers v. Wizards UNDER 220 | 101-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Wizards host the Portland Blazers in an early tip game for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Washington and Portland both started the year by playing terribly on the defensive end. Things have looked better from them both defensively of late. Washington is 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past nine games. Portland is 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the NBA in the past 9 games. That's important because Washington is 18th and Portland is 27th on the season. Both teams have been putting more effort in on the defensive end. These teams are a little above average offensively, but not elite. They both play just a tick faster than the average team in the NBA. A total of 220 is usually saved for games between teams that run like crazy and play almost no defense. I don't think that is the case here. MLK Day early games have been solid under trends during the past ten years. Take the under here. |
|||||||
01-16-17 | Hawks v. Knicks UNDER 210 | 108-107 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks meet early on Monday. These two teams have met twice this year and neither game has gotten even close to this posted total. The two games have been 198 and 200 (in overtime). This is an early start on MLK Day, which helps the under in my opinion. This is something that has shown to be true through the years. Atlanta ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency over the last eight games. The Knicks are in the middle of the pack. Both teams are middle of the pack or lower in offensive efficiency. Neither team is pushing the pace all that much. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-13-17 | Pistons v. Jazz UNDER 192 | 77-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA on ESPN MONEY* The Utah Jazz play at the slowest pace in the NBA. Utah also ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. That can lead to some really low scores from their opponent. Utah hosts Detroit here, and you have to think Detroit is likely out of gas. They are on a long West Coast swing. They were blown away late last night at Golden State. Earlier this week they won in overtime in a draining game at Portland. This is the type of game where Detroit might shut it down early. How about a really strong NBA system for this one as well? The under is hitting a whopping 60% of the time when we have a home favorite of double digits that has won only 2 of their last 4 games? The system sits at 286-189 (60.2%) to the under. I think Utah wins and Detroit puts up a low enough point total for us to cash the under. Take the under here. |
|||||||
01-13-17 | Grizzlies v. Rockets UNDER 217 | 110-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies met a few weeks ago and the posted total was 205.5. Memphis has been playing some higher scoring games of late, so the total did need adjusted upward some. Still, a move to 217 is just too big. Memphis still is one of the 4 slowest paced teams in the NBA. They also rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Houston is unquestionably very good on offense, but this line has been inflated too much. The referees are great for the under in this one. Eric Dalen has been the best under referee in the NBA in the past five years. The under is 55.03% in all his games. James Williams is the second best under guy (54.47%) and both of them are doing this game. Look for fewer foul calls and I'll take the under in this game. |
|||||||
01-10-17 | Bucks v. Spurs UNDER 202 | 109-107 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs will be without LaMarcus Aldridge tonight. Milwaukee star Giannis Antetokounmpo is a gametime decision with the flu tonight. He missed last game. All three referees in this game have an impressive under record of at least 52.35% in the past five years. For Scott Twardowski, it is 55.63% unders. That's a big help in this one. The Bucks and Spurs both rank in the bottom 6 in the NBA in tempo in their last six games. San Antonio also ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that span. The Spurs have turned up the defensive intensity a lot in recent weeks, and I'll be surprised if the Bucks don't struggle on offense here. Take the under here. |
|||||||
01-06-17 | Wolves v. Wizards UNDER 211.5 | 105-112 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star TGIF NBA MONEYMAKER* The Minnesota Timberwolves have finally started to play some defense. Tom Thibodeau is known as a great defensive mind, and it was only a matter of time. Minnesota ranks sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. Washington actually ranks fifth in defensive efficiency during that period. Washington ranks in the top ten in tempo, but Minnesota has slowed down a lot of late. The Timberwolves rank 28th in the NBA in tempo in their last five contests. They seem to be slowing down and playing better defense at the same time, which certainly makes some sense. Another reason for this play is the referees assigned to the game. Eric Dalen is the main ref here and for his career the under is at 55.06% in his games. The other two refs combine for a 53% under record as well. This number is a few points too high. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-31-16 | Suns v. Jazz UNDER 208 | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz are second slowest in tempo in the NBA. Phoenix obviously plays very fast, but I think Utah can and will control the pace at home here. In 4 of their last 9 games, the Jazz have held their opponent to 89 points or less. The Suns aren't efficient on offense, and I could see Utah holding them to a low total. Since 2007, on all NBA games on New Year' Eve the under is hitting at 61.5%. This has been a good under day in the long term, and I'll follow that trend. The referees in this game are a combined 57% to the under in the past four years. Strong trend there. Take the under. . |
|||||||
12-31-16 | Knicks v. Rockets UNDER 225.5 | 122-129 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This is a hard bet to make, there is no doubt about that. Houston is firing on all cylinders right now, and the Rockets can pour the points in. Still, at 225.5 on this day that is enough value for me to take the under. Since 2007, on all NBA games on New Year' Eve the under is hitting at 61.5%. This has been a good under day in the long term, and I'll follow that trend. This number is 7 points higher than when the teams met earlier this year. It is an overreaction in the line. The referees in this game are 54.5% to the under in the last four years. That's a nice bonus. Take the under. . |
|||||||
12-31-16 | Bucks v. Bulls UNDER 204.5 | 116-96 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls meet tonight at the United Center. Both of these teams rank in the top 11 in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year. They are both middle of the pack on offensive efficiency. When it comes to pace, in the past month both of them rank in the bottom seven. This should be a slow paced game and these two teams have a bit of a rivalry. Since 2007, on all NBA games on New Year' Eve the under is hitting at 61.5%. This has been a good under day in the long term, and I'll follow that trend. Take the under here. |
|||||||
12-25-16 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 222.5 | 108-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
*4 Star Warriors/Cavs MONEY* The Golden State Warriors rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past eight games. The Cleveland Cavaliers rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 8 games. The Warriors are obviously going to look to push the tempo, but the Cavs aren't running of late. Cleveland is 24th in the NBA in tempo in the past ten games. I think they'll look to slow this one down a bit. Golden State is certainly a different team with Durant, but it is interesting to note that the highest total in the past ten meetings between these two teams has been 211 points. Only one of the last ten games between these two has gone above 216 points. The under is 30-13-1 since 2005 in NBA games on Christmas Day. This makes sense because many teams celebrate the day before with their families. This number is too high for me to pass up. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-25-16 | Celtics v. Knicks UNDER 211 | 119-114 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Christmas Day BEST Bet* The Boston Celtics and New York Knicks play the noon eastern game on Christmas Day. This is a tremendous spot for an under. The under is actually 7-2 in the last 9 early games on Christmas Day. One of the two that went over did so by half a point. The NBA has Christmas Eve off, which means the players generally celebrate Christmas with their families on Christmas Eve. The quick turnaround to have to play an early game on Christmas makes for a sloppy game played at a slower pace than normal. That should be the case again this year. I think the only way this one goes off is both teams shooting it really well from the floor. In their last ten games, the Knicks are 19th in offensive efficiency and the Celtics are 22nd in that category. Defensively, Boston is 5th in the NBA and the Knicks are 17th. Overall on Christmas Day, the under is 30-13-1 since 2005. We'll look for the early game to stay under the posted total again. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-23-16 | Rockets v. Grizzlies UNDER 206 | 109-115 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Memphis has been able to win this year solely because of their defense, because the offense hasn't been any good. Memphis is actually the second worst offense in the NBA in efficiency, only the Philadelphia 76ers have been worse. It is surprising to see Houston playing some defense this year. Houston ranks in the top half of the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Rockets are playing fast, but they are only 9th in the NBA in pace, which is a little slower than I would have expected. Memphis plays at the 28th quickest pace out of 30 teams in the league. The 3 referees calling this game have solid long term under trends. With this being the last day before the Christmas break for these teams, I see this being a good spot to play the under. Take the under here. |
|||||||
12-16-16 | Hawks v. Raptors UNDER 215.5 | 125-121 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* This posted total is too high for me to overlook. The Raptors and Hawks met earlier this year and the posted total was 207. That game finished with 212 points. Toronto won by a whopping margin of 128-84. Toronto has been putting up some massive point totals of late, and that has contributed to this line. Still, it is important to point out that Toronto ranks 23rd in the NBA in pace. Atlanta ranks 5th in tempo. Atlanta is sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. While they have been poor on defense lately, I think they show some pride here after giving up 128 points to Toronto last time. If there was ever a time to work hard on defense, this is it for Atlanta. Also important is the fact that Atlanta is 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Hawks have a hard time scoring a ton of points because they take too many poor shots. In the past few years, the normal total for a meeting between these two teams has been about 205 points. I can't pass up the value when we see a total this high. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-29-16 | Pistons v. Hornets UNDER 200 | 112-89 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Detroit Pistons are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in the past five games. Stan Van Gundy is working hard to get his team to take care of the basketball and win with their defense. Charlotte plays at an average tempo, but the Hornets have played very good defense of late. In their last three contests, Charlotte ranks fourth best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In that same time frame, the Pistons are 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The total has moved up to 200, where I'm comfortable taking the under. Two of the three referees in this game are solid under guys (Boland and Callahan) so that is another positive. The under is 13-3 in the Pistons last 16 when on 2 days of rest. The under is 4-1 in their last 5 road games. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-28-16 | Jazz v. Wolves UNDER 196 | 112-103 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Monday MONEYMAKER* The Utah Jazz play at the slowest pace in the NBA. In fact, they play at the slowest pace in the NBA by more than two possessions per game. Minnesota ranks 21st in the NBA in terms of tempo. This game should be played at a slow pace throughout. Minnesota's defense hasn't been what it needs to be so far this year, but with Coach Thibodeau at the helm this defense will get better. I believe we have seen signs of them being better of late. The Timberwolves held Phoenix to only 85 points on Friday night. Phoenix plays very fast, so that was some good defense from Minnesota. Their home game against Boston last week where they allowed 99 was improvement too. Boston averages 104 points per game. Utah is allowing only 92.8 points per game. In addition to playing slowly, Utah also ranks number one in the NBA in field goal percentage defense. Opponents are shooting only 42.3% against the Jazz. The under is 5-1 in the Timberwolves last 6 games. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the NBA Northwest. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-25-16 | Clippers v. Pistons UNDER 200.5 | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons play at the 24th fastest pace in the league, so they are more of a slow it down type team. The Clippers are 16th in the league in tempo, which is average. The Clippers rank second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Pistons rank 6th in defensive efficiency. The Clippers do have a very good offense, but the Pistons defense has been excellent at home this year. The under is 7-1 in the Pistons last 8 home games. In this one, I'm seeing only 38% of the bets placed on the under, but 71% of the money on the under. This looks like the sharp play. Two of the three referees in this game (Blair and Kirkland) are two of the best under referees in the league. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-16-16 | Grizzlies v. Clippers UNDER 203 | 111-107 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. Memphis ranks 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Grizzlies scored only 88 points against the Clippers in their first meeting this year, and I don't think they'll get above that number here either.The Clippers defense has been at its best at home so far this season. Also, consider the pace that each of these teams are playing at right now. The Grizzlies play at 25th fastest pace out of 30 teams. The Clippers are at #15, right in the middle. With the Grizzlies offensive woes and the Clippers defensive greatness so far this year, it's hard to imagine the total being lined above 200, but it is. The under is 20-6 in the Clippers last 26 home games. The under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-14-16 | 76ers v. Rockets OVER 213.5 | 88-115 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets should finish the season near the top of the list in terms of tempo in the NBA. Houston has played multiple teams of late who have looked to slow them down. They have played San Antonio twice and played Dallas twice as well. Those teams weren't wanting to run, and the Spurs play great defense. Now, Houston has a lowered number on the posted total because their recent games have been lower scoring. This time they get to take on the Philadelphia 76ers. Philly prefers a quick pace as well, and the 76ers are bad on defense. Houston should put up a big number in this one. The Philadelphia offense has been really inefficient this year, but they get to go up against a Houston defense that ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Philly should be able to get their points in this game as well. Recency bias has led to this total being set a little too low. The over is 5-0 in the 76ers last 5 road games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 when playing on one day of rest. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more last game. A 14-0 angle. Take the over. |
|||||||
11-06-16 | Jazz v. Knicks UNDER 195.5 | 114-109 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The New York Knicks host the Utah Jazz at noon eastern on Sunday afternoon. This is a spot where I like to take the under. New York City is a huge city with a ton of things to do. There can be some late nights and early mornings in situations like this, which often leads to sluggish games with poor shooting percentages. New York has mainly played against teams who like to play fast this year, and they have had some very high scoring games. In this one, they'll be up against the Utah Jazz, who play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. In fact, the Jazz games so far this year have had about 2.5 possessions fewer than any other team in the NBA. Utah is a defensive-minded team, and the Jazz will look to slow this game down and win a low scoring contest. They have only played one game that went above this posted total so far this year. With the tempo and the early Sunday afternoon game, I like the under in this one. The under is 5-0 in Utah's last 5 Sunday games. The under is 9-0 in their last 9 following a double digit loss at home. The under is 6-0 in the Knicks last 6 following a win by more than 10 points. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NBA Northwest. A 24-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-30-16 | Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 195.5 | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Los Angeles Clippers host the Utah Jazz in a strange Sunday afternoon game that tips off at 1:30 pm local time. These early start time games on Sunday often turn into sluggish fourth quarters, and I believe this is a good spot for the under. Utah will probably be the slowest paced team in the NBA this year. The Jazz defense is good in the interior, and they will try to do their best to slow the tempo down in this game. Los Angeles got much better on defense last year, and I see it continuing this season. The Clippers have several good individual defenders, and having DeAndre Jordan by the rim helps in a big way obviously. The under is 5-2 in the Clippers last 7 Sunday games. Four of the last five games between these two were under this total in regulation. Early on the sharp money has hit the under had, and I agree with this play. Take the under in this one. |
|||||||
10-26-16 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 223.5 | 114-120 | Win | 101 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets are going to play at breakneck pace this year under Mike D'Antoni. D'Antoni ran a tremendous offensive system with the Suns several years ago. It hasn't worked very well in New York with the Knicks or in LA with the Lakers, but that was because of the makeup of the team. Houston has a team that is absolutely capable of running and gunning with the D'Antoni offense. In the preseason, Houston had the highest offensive efficiency of any team in the NBA. They are going to score loads of points this year, and clearly in this system they will give up a ton as well. The Los Angeles Lakers want to play fast under Luke Walton. They have some athleticism on the team, and I don't see them trying to stall out the flow of this game. The early betting numbers on this one encourage me a lot as well. So far, 60% of the bets on this game are on the under, but a whopping 94% of the money is on the over. The sharp players like the over, and I'm siding with them here. Houston puts up a huge number and this one goes over. Take the over in this contest. |
|||||||
06-19-16 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 208 | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Finals Game 7 Season Closing CA$H* The Cleveland Cavs and Golden State Warriors meet Sunday night with everything on the line. In general in the NBA, the bigger the game is the more likely it is you will see more defense and a slower pace. The games don't come any bigger than this one. This is literally a career defining game for some people involved in this game. There also hasn't been a close game yet in the series, but I think that probably changes here. Golden State is banged up and Cleveland has the momentum, but Golden State is a great team and has the home court advantage. If this game is close late, the tempo will slow down drastically. In the past 12 years, Game 6 and Game 7 in the NBA playoffs have seen the under hit at a 65% clip. If you go back and look at the last three NBA Finals Game 7 results they show this in a big way also. The last 3 were: Spurs 81 Pistons 74 in 2005, Lakers 83 Celtics 79 in 2010, and Heat 95 Spurs 88 in 2013. This posted total is set high for a good reason. Both of these offenses are very good. Still, the long term numbers all tell me to take the under in this one. The public is betting the over at about a 76% clip here, and as of yet the total has not moved up. Take the under. |
|||||||
06-13-16 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 205 | 112-97 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Game 5 CASH* Game 4 was played to by far the slowest pace of the series thus far. The Cavs are likely going to try to make this game very physical, and typically in elimination games the tempo slows down a touch. This posted total has dropped despite the public backing the over at 68% clip. Draymond Green's suspension has something to do with that for sure, but I believe this also means there is some sharp money on the under in this one. Without Green, the Warriors lose a key facilitator of their offense. I think this game likely has less rhythm and is a little sloppier than most of the games in the series thus far. Take the under here. |
|||||||
05-30-16 | Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 218 | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star Thunder/Warriors Game 7 MONEY* The Golden State Warriors proved very clutch in their Game 6 win. Golden State knocked down 21 three-pointers in that game, and that carried them through on the road in Oklahoma City. I had the under in that game and that cashed. I'm going with the under again here. The long-term trend is clear: elimination games in the NBA playoffs tend to mean a slower tempo and tighter defense. In Game 6, the game stayed well under despite the Warriors hot long range shooting. That's because the tempo was 4 possessions slower than the average of the first five games. That's a significant difference, and I have to think that continues here. It's win or go home time for both teams. Take the under in this one. |
|||||||
05-28-16 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 221 | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Warriors/Thunder MONEYMAKER* The public loves to bet the over, and in this one the over is getting about 80% of the public bets. Despite that, the line has held steady and even dropped one half of a point at some books. That's a good sign for the under here. Additionally, we have three referees who have more unders than overs so far this year. An angle I really like is the under is 41-19 in the last 60 NBA playoff potential elimination games in game six or game seven of a series. Why is this? Normally teams tighten up and the pace slows down a tick. The defense gets better because no one wants to go home. These teams can definitely score, but I'm counting on a few less free throws than last game, and 221 is a bunch of points. Take the under in this one. |
|||||||
05-23-16 | Cavs v. Raptors OVER 197 | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star Cavs/Raptors Game 4 MONEY* The Cleveland Cavs have been prolific offensively so far this postseason, but Game 3 was their worst shooting performance in the playoffs thus far by a wide margin. Kyrie Irving was 3/19 from the floor and Kevin Love was 1/9 from the floor. Cleveland shot 35% from the floor as a team. I don't expect that to happen again. Toronto's defense hasn't been very good on the whole this year, and Cleveland was getting good shots and missing them in Game 3. Toronto is much better offensively on their home floor. Guys like Derozan and Lowry have much more confidence getting to the basket when they are playing on their home floor. The first three games of this series have all had very high first halves and lower second halves because the game hasn't been close. We should get a closer contest where the scoring doesn't drop off as much late in this one. Take the over. |
|||||||
05-18-16 | Thunder v. Warriors OVER 222 | 91-118 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Thunder/Warriors Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors dropped game one due to some poor shooting numbers. While Oklahoma City's defense had some to do with it, I believe it had more to do with Golden State just not making shots they normally make. The Warriors aren't going to be held to 44% shooting on their home floor very often. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook didn't shoot the ball all that well, and still Oklahoma City scored 108 points last game. The regular season meetings were very high scoring, and while the playoffs lead to a slightly slower pace, both of these teams will want to keep pushing the tempo. Golden State shot only 17 free throws last game. They made only 11. Oklahoma City shot only 68% from the line last game. These are two tremendous free throw shooting teams, and we can expect to see more points from the charity stripe in this game. The offenses get rolling in this contest. Take the over. |
|||||||
05-06-16 | Cavs v. Hawks UNDER 199 | 121-108 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 0 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Friday Fast CASH* The Cleveland Cavaliers just set a record for most made 3's in a game with 25. Also, they put down 18 of them in game one. Cleveland is shooting well over 50% from long range in this series so far. Cleveland is good from long range, but they can't keep shooting it that well. Atlanta had the best defensive efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference this year, and I expect a strong defensive effort from them in front of their home crowd and down 2-0. The Hawks offense has had trouble getting open looks against this Cavs defense in key moments during this series and even in the regular season. The tempo in the first couple games was about 92 possessions per game, which is very slow. With any kind of normal shooting numbers, that makes the under look very intriguing. The public is taking the over and the line is still dropping. I'm on the under in this one. |
|||||||
04-29-16 | Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 195 | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 43 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Friday Night MONEY* The Indiana Pacers collapsed in Toronto in the 4th quarter in Game 5. The Pacers had that game and gave it away. Now, they have their back up against the wall down 3-2 in the series. This has been a tightly contested series where the two offenses have struggled to find any real consistency. The tempo is slow in this series because Toronto plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the NBA. Elimination games tend to lead to unders. The under sits at a little over 60% in potential elimination games in the NBA playoffs in the past seven years. This total hasn't been adjusted downward by the oddsmakers, so I'm grabbing the under in what should be a tight game. The under is 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 road games. The under is 8-2 in the Pacers last 10 home games. Take the under. |
|||||||
04-24-16 | Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 198.5 | 100-98 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Cavs and Pistons are playing this series at an extremely slow tempo. The average pace here has been 89.08 possessions so far this series. That's the slowest first round series in the playoffs by a wide margin so far this year. The shooting numbers have actually been good in this series or there would have been some very low scoring games. The total has been adjusted downward slightly in this game, but it isn't enough to keep me off the under. The public is 62% on the over thus far and the line hasn't moved up. I had this line projected at 194.5, so I see clear value here. Take the under. |
|||||||
04-24-16 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 217 | 121-94 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Warriors/Rockets Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors haven't shot the ball all that well in this series so far. Stephen Curry is expected back for this game, and I think he gives this Warriors team a major shot in the arm. The tempo is always going to be quick when these two teams meet, and there should be a lot of free throws attempted here. The public is 67% on the under at this time, but the line is moving up, which is a good sign of sharp money on the over. The Rockets defense isn't very good, and the Warriors obviously have the best offense in the league. Golden State should be ready for a big game offensively. Houston will get to the line more at home. Take the over. |
|||||||
04-23-16 | Clippers v. Blazers UNDER 207.5 | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Late Night 100% CRUSHER* The Portland Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers meet in game 3 of their series on Saturday night. Los Angeles completely shut down Portland's offense in the first two games of the series. Based on both this series so far this year and the past encounters, it appears that Chris Paul is just a very tough matchup for Damian Lillard. Lillard has had a difficult time getting things going against Paul in the past. One thing that few realize is how good this Clippers defense is this year. The Clippers rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are tied with Golden State in his measure. There has been one game all year between these two teams (in 6 meetings) that has gone over this total and that was game one of this series based on 3 late tough 3 pointers falling in the last minute of a blowout. The tempo of this series has been relatively slow and that should continue. The under is 6-0 in the Blazers last 6 Saturday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two teams. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
04-23-16 | Heat v. Hornets UNDER 201 | 80-96 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Saturday NBA Fast CASH* The Charlotte Hornets couldn't have possibly played worse defense in the first two games of this series. Miami put on an absolute shooting clinic. The Heat scored 1.35 points per possession over the first two games. To put that in perspective, Golden State was the most efficient offense in the NBA in the regular season. They averaged 1.12 points per possession. Miami can't keep shooting the ball that well every game. Charlotte should dig deep in this one, especially with it being at home. Additionally, the pace of this series has been the single slowest pace of any series in the NBA playoffs. If that continues, and shooting percentages normalize, this total is far too high. Look for a return to normal here. Take the under. |
|||||||
04-22-16 | Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 200.5 | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
*4 Star Cavs/Pistons Total DOMINATION* The Pistons and Cavs have shot the ball extremely well from 3 point range in the first two games in this series. The first game it was Detroit knocking down everything from long range. Last game it was Cleveland. I would expect some normalized shooting numbers in this game. Cleveland initially pushed the tempo with Lue as their head coach, but they have slowed things down of late. The average pace of 91 possessions through the first two games of this series shows that this has largely been a halfcourt battle. I think this total is posted a few points too high based on the high shooting numbers from the first couple games. Take the under here. |
|||||||
04-19-16 | Celtics v. Hawks OVER 206 | 72-89 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Celtics/Hawks CASH* The Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics played to a 102-101 final in Game one. Boston's shooting woes kept that game from being higher scoring. Both Boston and Atlanta love to push the pace, so there's no doubt that the tempo will be quick here. Avery Bradley is the Celtics best defender, and it isn't even close. Atlanta's guards will get more open looks with Bradley out with an injury today. The Celtics Isiah Thomas had a bad game one as far as shooting, but he should be better tonight. We have three overs referees assigned for this game including the single best over referee in the game in Scott Foster. Expect a quick whistle and plenty of free throws. Take the over. |
|||||||
04-17-16 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 200 | 91-123 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Sunday Total DOMINATION* The Miami Heat did play at a slightly quicker pace at the end of the season, but they still ranked among the ten slowest teams in the league in the last month of the year. Dwyane Wade has long preferred a slow tempo and this Heat team is likely to try to slow the game back down in the playoffs. Charlotte has a slightly slower than average tempo as well. Miami ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and Charlotte ranks 9th. Only one of the four meetings in the regular season went over this posted total. The playoffs usually bring better defense and a slower tempo. I think this one is a few points too high. Take the under. |
|||||||
04-16-16 | Pacers v. Raptors UNDER 195 | 100-90 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Playoffs Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Toronto Raptors ranked 11th in the league in defensive efficiency. While Toronto was 5th in the league in offensive efficiency, the Pacers were way down at number 23. In the NBA playoffs, we often see the tempo slow down a great deal. It makes a lot of sense because so much more is on the line. Additionally, the defense usually picks up. Indiana has been playing relatively fast this year, but Toronto at the second slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Raptors should be able to control the tempo on their home floor. While about 70% of the public bets so far are on the over, the line here has been gradually dropping. That's a good sign of sharp money on the under in this one. This total is a few points too high. Take the under here. |
|||||||
04-13-16 | Pelicans v. Wolves OVER 213.5 | 109-144 | Win | 101 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Minnesota Timberwolves have plenty of scorers, and they should be able to score at will against a Pelicans team that is giving up almost 1.19 points per possession in their last 3 contests. Neither of these teams have anything to play for in this game, and I think that definitely is a positive for the over. The over is hitting at a 59% clip in NBA final games of the season in the past five years. No defense here. Take the over. |
|||||||
04-13-16 | Raptors v. Nets OVER 206.5 | 103-96 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Toronto Raptors are sitting their best players tonight, but I still don't expect them to have any trouble scoring against the Nets. Brooklyn has been the worst defense in the NBA by a huge margin in the past 10 games. Brooklyn's tempo has picked up as well, and I don't see Toronto slowing the pace down with their backups tonight. Brooklyn is allowing 1.20 points per possession in their last three games. The over is 13-4 in the Nets last 17 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games overall. Take the over. |
|||||||
04-11-16 | Wizards v. Nets OVER 210.5 | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Brooklyn Nets couldn't care less right now. Brooklyn is definitely playing out the string. Brooklyn is playing the worst defense in the NBA in the past month and it isn't even close. Brooklyn is allowing 1.14 points per possession in the past month. The Lakers are second worst at 1.12 points per possession. Clearly, Brooklyn is putting forth almost zero effort on defense now. Brooklyn is without Brook Lopez and Thad Young for their final games. The Nets have played at a much faster tempo without these guys this year. Washington will likely be without John Wall and Bradley Beal here, but they still have guys who can score. Morris was a key pickup, and he's been hot of late. Sessions and Thornton are pushing the pace in the Wizards backcourt as well. The early sharp money is piling in on the over here, and I have to agree with that. When these two met last week, the final was 121-103. With neither team caring to play defense, this should be very high as well. Take the over. |
|||||||
03-31-16 | Clippers v. Thunder UNDER 212 | 117-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers are sitting out Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, and J.J. Redick in this one. Blake Griffin is already down with an injury and Paul Pierce is out with an injury as well. The Clippers offense will look a whole lot different on Thursday night than it normally does. Oklahoma City has been very good of late. The Thunder have been putting up a lot of points, but they are also playing very well on defense, especially on their home floor. This is a high total considering who all isn't playing in this game. The Clippers and Thunder both rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma City should coast to a win and their defense should be good enough to keep this one low enough scoring. Take the under. |
|||||||
03-30-16 | Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 203 | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors are actually both in tough scheduling spots here. That makes me believe this game could be lower scoring than expected. A huge key for me in this game is the public is taking the over at an 85% clip and the total has dropped two full points from the open. That's a very strong signal of some sharp money on the under. Utah has to know the only chance they have here is to play some stall ball. They want no part of a high scoring game with Golden State. Both defenses rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past month. Take the under here. |
|||||||
03-30-16 | Hawks v. Raptors UNDER 200 | 97-105 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Hawks actually have the single best defensive efficiency mark in the NBA in the past month. Atlanta is winning games with some tremendous defense right now. Toronto plays at the third slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Raptors will make this a game played in the halfcourt. Toronto's defense is much improved from last year, and that's the biggest reason the Raptors are the second ranked team in the Eastern Conference right now. The public money here is 83% on the over, but this number has dropped from the opener. I always like signs like this one. This is an anti-public play that the bookmakers are clearly respecting. The under is 5-0 in Toronto's last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Atlanta's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. A 17-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
03-29-16 | Rockets v. Cavs UNDER 212 | 106-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Houston Rockets go to Cleveland to take on the Cavs tonight. The Cavs will be without LeBron James. Cleveland has been a mess on the offensive end when James hasn't played in the last couple years. In fact, in LeBron's last 15 games sitting out, the under is 12-3. The over is getting almost 80% of the public bets, but the line has gradually moved down today, which is certainly a nice indicator of sharp money on the under. Houston needs games like this one with their playoff spot being very questionable. This one is a few points too high. Take the under. |
|||||||
03-25-16 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 203 | 90-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA TGIF Play of Day* The Atlanta Hawks defense has been the best in the NBA in the past month. For the year, Atlanta ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency behind only the Spurs. In the past month, their defense has been slightly better than the Spurs. Atlanta still plays at a relatively quick pace, but the Hawks offense is much less efficient than they were last year. Milwaukee is playing at the slowest tempo of any team outside of Utah in the past month. The Bucks offense struggles without Mayo and Carter-Williams. The Bucks will work to slow this game down as much as possible. Another strong sign is this total dropping despite 2/3 of the public bets on this game coming in on the over. I always like to see a line move that goes against the public. The under is 6-2 in the Hawks last 8 home games. The under is 4-1 in the Bucks last 5. Take the under. |
|||||||
03-23-16 | Knicks v. Bulls UNDER 202 | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The New York Knicks tempo has been very slow under Kurt Rambis. They are also working quite a bit harder on defense than they were earlier this year. New York is playing at better than league average on defense in the past month. Chicago's defense is better than league average as well, and their offense ranks 25th in the NBA in efficiency. The Bulls offense just can't seem to put it all together this year, and injuries have really held the team back. The first two meetings this year finished at 198 and 189. This has the highest posted total of any game between these two in the past three years. The under is 20-7 in the Knicks last 27. The under is 5-2 in the Bulls last 7 home games. Take the under. |
|||||||
03-13-16 | Cavs v. Clippers UNDER 207 | 114-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* I can't pass this one up. While there are a couple things about this game I don't like: most importantly the Cavs recent higher scoring games and quicker tempo, the spot is just too good to pass up the under. It is a strong long-term trend to play early Sunday games in the NBA to go under the posted total. That trend gets even stronger in unique situations like this one. With the clocks moving forward an hour, players get an hour less to sleep on Saturday night and this game starts at 12:30 local time in Los Angeles. That's definitely a negative for scoring when it comes to long term scoring averages. I'll play the situation here. Take the under. |
|||||||
03-11-16 | Heat v. Bulls UNDER 202 | 118-96 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Chicago Bulls have major injury problems right now. Chicago is expected to be without Jimmy Butler, Joakim Noah, and Cameron Bairstow for this game. Derrick Rose is questionable. The Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls both rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both of them rank in the bottom ten in the league in offensive efficiency. The under is 6-1 in their last 7 games against each other. This total is inflated by a few points. Take the under here. |
|||||||
03-07-16 | Wolves v. Hornets OVER 211 | 103-108 | Push | 0 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Monday's NBA BEST Bet* The Charlotte Hornets host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday night. Minnesota's defense has been awful in the last few weeks. How bad has it been? Since the All Star Break, Minnesota hasn't given up less than 103 points in a single game. They have given up 114 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games overall. Minnesota plays 2.5 possessions per game quicker on the road, and Charlotte is playing about a possession per game faster at home than they are on the road. This sets up as a nice high scoring game where Charlotte puts up a big number on an awful defense. Minnesota clearly has the offensive weapons to score plenty too. The over is 21-6-1 in Minnesota's last 28 road games. The over is 11-1 in their last 12 following a win. Take the over. |
|||||||
03-04-16 | Wolves v. Bucks OVER 213.5 | 101-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Minnesota Timberwolves defense has been downright awful of late. They haven't allowed less than 102 points in a single game since January. Minnesota plays at a much faster tempo on the road, and the over is 20-8-2 in their road games this year. Milwaukee and Minnesota both rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. This should be a game with a lot of easy looks for both teams. Look for a shootout in Milwaukee tonight. Take the over. |
|||||||
02-24-16 | Warriors v. Heat UNDER 216.5 | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors are in the middle of a stretch where they play six games in nine days in three different time zones. Miami knows that if they want a chance to win this game, they have to slow down the pace. While Golden State plays very fast, the Warriors also have an excellent defense. Golden State ranks third in defense efficiency. Miami is sixth in the league in defense efficiency. The under is 5-2 in Golden State's last 7 road games. The under is 5-2 in Miami's last 7 home games. Take the under. |
|||||||
02-22-16 | Pacers v. Heat UNDER 203 | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Best Bet of the Day* The Indiana Pacers now rank second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Miami Heat are sixth. To get a game between two teams ranked so highly in defense with a total this high is certainly rare. The over is 20-8 in the last 28 NBA games, and bettors are blindly betting up the overs and this has given us value here. Eric Dalen is one of the refs in this game, and he's one of the best under referees in the game. Dalen is 25-13 to the under this year. The under was 20-11 in his games last year. Two years ago it was 33-26 to the under. Three years ago the under was 33-22 in his games. Clearly a major under referee. I think this one is several points too high. Take the under. |
|||||||
02-22-16 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 203.5 | 122-95 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total Value Play* The New York Knicks aren't going to play fast under Kurt Rambis. The Toronto Raptors have played slowly all year. In fact, these two teams rank 25th and 26th out of 30 teams in the NBA in terms of pace of play. Toronto's defense is also much improved from last year. The over has been red hot in the NBA, with the over going 20-8 in the last 28 NBA games played. That has caused this and other NBA totals to shoot upward today. This line is up 4.5 points, and that's just not indicative of what the true line should be. Looks like an overreaction to me. Take the under. |
|||||||
02-21-16 | Hornets v. Nets OVER 203 | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Brooklyn Nets are abysmal on the defensive end. Brooklyn has been a very good over team at home, because they are much better on offense on their home floor. Charlotte just lost their best defensive player when Kidd-Gilchrist went down for the season. The Hornets offense has been good in recent meetings with Brooklyn. The over is 19-11 in Brooklyn's 30 games as a home underdog this year. The over is 11-1 in their last 12 home games. The over is 6-1-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. Take the over. |
|||||||
02-10-16 | Raptors v. Wolves UNDER 207 | 112-117 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Minnesota Timberwolves are a unique team in that they play much slower at home than they do on the road. Most teams in the NBA are the opposite. Minnesota averages about 3 possessions per game less on their home floor compared to on the road. Minnesota's defense isn't nearly as bad as it was last year. Toronto's defense is much better than a year ago. The Raptors are 8-5-1 to the under as a road favorite this year. The Timberwolves are 9-6 to the under as a home underdog this year. This is both teams last game before the NBA All Star Break. That's important because in the past ten years, the under is hitting at slightly over 57% in teams last games before the break. Take the under. |
|||||||
02-10-16 | Clippers v. Celtics UNDER 211 | 134-139 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Clippers have been playing great basketball without Blake Griffin. What's the big reason for that? The Clippers have been much better defensively in the past few weeks. While Boston is a team that runs, they also play some very good defense. Boston ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Los Angeles is now up to sixth in the NBA in that category. The three referees in this game are favorable to the under. This is both teams last game before the NBA All Star Break. That's important because in the past ten years, the under is hitting at slightly better than 57% in teams last games before the break. The under is 7-0 in the Clippers last 7 road games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
02-09-16 | Spurs v. Heat UNDER 194 | 119-101 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total PERFECTION* The Miami Heat play at the 29th ranked pace out of 30 teams in the NBA. The Spurs play at the 23rd ranked tempo. This game should be played at a very slow pace. The Spurs offense has been clicking of late, but Miami is a good defensive team. Miami is sixth in the league in defensive efficiency. The Spurs are first in the league in defensive efficiency, and they are first by a wide margin. The Spurs have been scoring a lot of points lately, which has pushed this total up quite a bit, and that creates value in what I think will be a defensive game. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or better. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 between these two. A 24-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
02-07-16 | Hawks v. Magic UNDER 202 | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Sunday Best Bet* The Orlando Magic have been good defensively on their home floor this year. Atlanta is surprisingly the fifth best defense in the NBA in terms of efficiency this year. Atlanta's offense is down several marks from last year, but their defense is better than it was last season. Neither of these teams are blazing fast in terms of tempo and this is a very early Sunday afternoon game where I typically like to look for unders. This is also on Super Bowl Sunday, and you know everyone (players included) want to go home and get ready for that game. The under is 36-15 in the last 51 meetings between these teams. Take the under. |
|||||||
02-05-16 | Grizzlies v. Knicks UNDER 197 | 91-85 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA TGIF Total DOMINATION* The New York Knicks and Memphis Grizzlies met in mid-January and the posted total was 187.5. Tonight we get a total of 197. This number is higher because Memphis is 9-1 to the over in the last 10 games, and I understand it being higher, but this much higher is too much in my opinion. Both of these teams play at a very slow pace. In fact, both rank in the five slowest in terms of tempo in the NBA. Memphis' defense was really bad earlier this year, but they have been much better of late. Memphis has played a lot of high flying teams lately, and the Knicks are not that. The over is getting hit by the public, and yet the number stays steady. I'm taking the under here. |
|||||||
02-01-16 | Wizards v. Thunder OVER 220.5 | 98-114 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Oklahoma City Thunder are without Andre Roberson right now, and he is one of their best defenders. To put it bluntly, Oklahoma City hasn't been guarding anyone of late. Oklahoma City has allowed 116, 122, 123, and 108 points in their last four games. As bad as the Oklahoma City defense has been of late, Washington's has been even worse. Washington has allowed 116 points or more in 4 of their last 7 games. Both of these teams are pushing the tempo as much as possible, and the pace here should be extremely fast. Look for Oklahoma City to put up a huge number and Washington to do enough. The over is 10-2 in Washington's last 12 road games. The over is 5-0 in OKC's last 5. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more last game. A 23-2 angle. Take the over. |
|||||||
01-29-16 | Wolves v. Jazz UNDER 192.5 | 90-103 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA TGIF Play of Day* The Utah Jazz have both Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors in the lineup again now, and that makes them a totally different team. They excel on the defensive end when they have those shot blockers on the inside. Utah plays an even slower pace with those guys healthy also, since they look to pound it inside instead of using perimeter shooting. Minnesota now ranks 19th out of 30 teams in the NBA in terms of pace. The Timberwolves have been slowing things down gradually as the season has moved along. The under is 10-5-1 in Utah's 16 games as a home favorite. The under is 16-7-1 in Utah's last 24 when playing on one day of rest. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-27-16 | Suns v. Cavs OVER 209 | 93-115 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Cavs really want to push the tempo more under new Coach Ty Lue. This is a great opportunity to do it against a Phoenix Suns team that loves to run, and can't play any defense. Phoenix ranks 28th out of 30 NBA teams in defensive efficiency. I suspect the Cavs defensive efficiency will drop in the coming weeks while they work on this new style of play. Cleveland had a very high scoring game against Minnesota last time out, and Minnesota doesn't play nearly as fast as Phoenix. The total is pretty high here, but it is high for a reason. Take the over. |
|||||||
01-18-16 | Nets v. Raptors UNDER 197.5 | 100-112 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors have been better defensively at home than on the road. Brooklyn and Toronto both rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in terms of pace. Brooklyn ranks third from the bottom in the NBA in offensive efficiency (only the Lakers and the 76ers are worse). It's unlikely the Nets will put up many here, and this looks like a spot where Toronto is unlikely to push to blow out the Raptors. A favorable referee crew for the under also. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-18-16 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 201 | 81-98 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic meet on Monday late afternoon. This is a very odd scheduling spot in general. Orlando is playing in their first game since playing overseas a couple days ago. That should lead to some tired legs on Orlando's part. Atlanta is getting ready to play a tough schedule, and I think they'll let off the gas if they lead late in this one. These early day games have generally been very favorable for unders in the past. Additionally, games played on the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday in the past ten years have stayed under 64% of the time. This is likely largely because there are a lot of different start times than normal and there is usually a bunch of teams playing that haven't had much rest lately. The under is 16-5 in Orlando's last 21 following a game where they allowed 100 plus points. The under is 21-5 in the last 26 meetings in Atlanta between these teams. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-18-16 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 195.5 | 99-101 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The under is 18-3-1 in the New Orleans Pelicans road games so far this year. In this one they are playing an early game against Memphis, who is definitely a team that wants to slow the tempo down whenever possible. These early day games have generally been very favorable for unders in the past. Additionally, games played on the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday in the past ten years have stayed under 64% of the time. This is likely largely because there are a lot of different start times than normal and there is usually a bunch of teams playing that haven't had much rest lately. Brian Forte is the main referee here and he is a good under referee. With the early start and expected tempo of this game, the value is with the under. Take the under here. |
|||||||
01-18-16 | Jazz v. Hornets UNDER 188 | 119-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total PERFECTION* The Charlotte Hornets host the Utah Jazz in an early game on Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the United States. This is a rare early Monday afternoon tipoff for these teams. These early day games have generally been very favorable for unders in the past. Additionally, games played on the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday in the past ten years have stayed under 64% of the time. This is likely largely because there are a lot of different start times than normal and there is usually a bunch of teams playing that haven't had much rest lately. Utah plays at the slowest tempo in the NBA, and with Gobert back they have a great defender in the frontcourt. The under is 4-0 in Utah's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more last game. The under is 5-0 in Charlotte's last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Charlotte's last 4 vs. the NBA Northwest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 34-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-11-16 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 207.5 | 103-111 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Heat and Warriors meet in a late night game at Oracle Arena on Monday night. Dwyane Wade has a bum shoulder but will try to play through it. Miami plays at the second slowest tempo in the league while Golden State plays at the second fastest tempo in the league. Golden State ranks fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and Miami ranks sixth. Golden State has been shooting lights out in their last three games, but those games were against the Lakers, Blazers, and Kings. Miami will fight to slow the game down a lot more than any of those teams would, and the Heat are the best defensive team Golden State has played in a while. Miami's offense has been inconsistent this year, and the Warriors should slow them down nicely. The total here has gotten a little out of control. The Heat play 2.1 possessions slower on the road than at home. Golden State actually plays 1.3 possessions per game slower at home than on the road. The under is 40-14-1 in Miami's last 55 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their last game. The under is 20-6-1 in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-06-16 | Knicks v. Heat UNDER 193.5 | 98-90 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Miami Heat have been a tremendous under team this year. It makes sense because they are playing at the second slowest tempo in the league, and they have the fourth ranked defense in the NBA. New York has been playing some high scoring games lately, which has propped this total up a bit to where I believe the under is a nice value. The first two meetings between these two teams finished 97-78 and 95-78 in favor of the Heat. The posted totals in those games were 190 and 187 points. I see no reason to have a jump to 193.5 after those first couple meetings. The under is 22-11-1 in the Heat's games this year. The under is 16-7 in the Heat's last 23 games on one day of rest. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-04-16 | Magic v. Pistons UNDER 198 | 89-115 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic meet on Monday night. Orlando is playing on one day of rest and the under is 14-8 in their 22 games on a day of rest this year. Elfrid Payton is listed as questionable for this one, and if he does play he'll be at far less than 100 percent. Payton is a guy that gets things running for the Magic, and this injury certainly hurts the Orlando offense. The three referees in this game are very helpful to the under. Combined, they have a record of 42-27 to the under so far this year overall. Two of the three referees here have strong long-term under trends. The under is 4-0 in Orlando's last 4 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss by more than 10 points. A 10-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-31-15 | Blazers v. Jazz UNDER 192 | 96-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Utah Jazz play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. Utah is going to slow the pace of this game down in a big way. Portland has slowed down a lot in the past month also. The Blazers now rank 20th out of 30 teams in the league in tempo. On New Year's Eve, historical trends in the NBA tilt strongly toward the under. This makes a lot of sense when you consider that players want to be able to get home or at least to a place they can celebrate the New Year. What does this mean? It means there are typically fewer stoppages late in the game, and there are lower scoring second halves. The under is 6-0 in Utah's last 6 vs. the NBA Northwest. The under is 4-0 in Utah's last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The under is 6-1 in their last 7 following an ATS loss. A 16-1 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-31-15 | Suns v. Thunder UNDER 212.5 | 106-110 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been playing some great defense in the past couple weeks. This team is much healthier now, and they have been able to show their upside more frequently. The under is 14-4 in Oklahoma City's last 18 games overall. The under is 8-2 in their last 10 home games. The under is 8-3 in the Suns last 11 games overall. Phoenix is without two of their best guards, and this Phoenix offense is a mess right now. On New Year's Eve, historical trends in the NBA tilt strongly toward the under. This makes a lot of sense when you consider that players want to be able to get home or at least to a place they can celebrate the New Year. What does this mean? It means there are typically fewer stoppages late in the game, and there are lower scoring second halves. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-31-15 | Wolves v. Pistons UNDER 200.5 | 90-115 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Detroit Pistons and Minnesota Timberwolves meet on New Year's Eve tonight. Minnesota plays at the 17th fastest tempo in the NBA and Detroit at the 18th fastest tempo in the league, so both teams are just slightly slower than the average NBA team. On New Year's Eve, historical trends in the NBA tilt strongly toward the under. This makes a lot of sense when you consider that players want to be able to get home or at least to a place they can celebrate the New Year. What does this mean? It means there are typically fewer stoppages late in the game, and there are lower scoring second halves. In this game, we have a Minnesota team that is struggling badly on offense, and a Detroit team that has been good defensively at home. Look for this one to stay several points under the total. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-25-15 | Bulls v. Thunder UNDER 204.5 | 105-96 | Win | 100 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Christmas 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been a great under team of late. That's primarily because the Thunder have really buckled down on defense and they have some very high posted totals. All throughout the season, the Chicago Bulls have been a good under play because the offense hasn't been efficient at all. Chicago ranks 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. They are only ahead of Brooklyn, the Lakers, and the 76ers in that statistic. That's some bad company right there. Earlier this year when these two met the game finished at 202. This game is played in the afternoon on Christmas Day, and we've seen afternoon Christmas Day games go under the total at a pretty good clip in the past. It makes sense because the players want to get home. The under is 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 vs. the NBA Northwest. The under is 7-0 in OKC's last 7 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 games on one day of rest. The under is 4-0 in the Thunder's last 4 Friday games. The under is 9-0 in their last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more last game. A 29-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-23-15 | Mavs v. Nets UNDER 199 | 119-118 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The posted total here was 199.5 and has dropped to 199 or 198.5 at some books. That is despite the fact that the public is betting heavily on the over. That's a nice setup for an under bet. Dallas has improved defensively this year, and Brooklyn is a much better defensive team on their home floor. I don't see either team being anxious to push the pace in their last game before their Christmas break. Look for both teams to be ready to head home and see their families. Lower second halves are common in this spot. The under is 4-1 in the Nets last 5 home games. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-23-15 | Knicks v. Cavs UNDER 196.5 | 84-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* Carmelo Anthony is questionable here. He will likely try to play, but he won't be 100 percent here. New York started the season out trying to play faster, but the Knicks have slowed down in a big way in the past month. In the past month, they rank in the bottom five in the NBA in pace. For the year as a whole, Cleveland ranks 28th out of 30 teams in pace. The Cavs defense has been very good in the past month as well. The last 5 meetings between these two have gone well under this posted total. Tomorrow is the Christmas break for the Cavs and the Knicks have two days off. In these spots it is common to see the under have more value because teams are ready to go home to their family. I often see low scoring second halves in these spots. The under is 4-0 in the Knicks last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in the Cavs last 7 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 4-0 in the Cavs last 4 after scoring 100 points or more. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 games between these two. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-20-15 | Blazers v. Heat UNDER 194 | 109-116 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Miami Heat have been one of the best defensive teams in the league so far this year. Miami's defense hasn't been very good in their last couple games though, and I have a feeling that will be a point of emphasis in this game. Portland's offense has gone into a funk in their last couple games. The Blazers are not going against a good opponent to be trying to turn around an offense that is struggling. Early Sunday afternoon unders are always worth a look, and the under is 11-3 in Miami's last 14 Sunday games. Portland's tempo has slowed down drastically in the past few weeks. Portland and Miami both rank in the bottom five in the NBA in terms of tempo in the past month. The under is 4-0 in Portland's last 4 games on one day of rest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more last game. The under is 6-0 in the Heat's last 6 games vs. the NBA Northwest Division. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-17-15 | Thunder v. Cavs UNDER 205 | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
*4 Star Thunder/Cavs Total DOMINATION* The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 11th in the NBA in pace. They have actually ranked in the bottom ten in the league in terms of pace in the past two weeks. Cleveland has been slowing the game down in a big way this year. The Cavs have the second slowest tempo in the NBA. Cleveland's defense is now in the top ten in defensive efficiency as well. Oklahoma City is in the top 10 in defensive efficiency also. A total this high is hard to reach with the pace being slow and both teams playing good offense. Also very important to note is that 75% of the public is betting the over here, but the total continues to drop. That's a strong sign. The under is 7-0 in the Thunder's last 7 games following a win by more than 10 points. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 following an ATS win. The under is 10-1 in their last 11 overall. The under is 4-0 in the Cavs last 4 following a win. A 28-1 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
12-16-15 | Grizzlies v. Bulls UNDER 194.5 | 85-98 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total PERFECTION* The Chicago Bulls have the third best defense in the NBA when it comes to defense efficiency numbers. Chicago is 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. While the Bulls were expected to play quickly with Fred Hoiberg as their coach, that hasn't really happened. Chicago started at a somewhat fast pace, but they have slowed considerably throughout the course of the year to slightly below average. Memphis is still a team that likes to play slowly and work it inside to their big men. Both offenses have been struggling of late, and this total is a few points too high. The under is 5-0 in Memphis' last 5 Wednesday games. The under is 7-0-1 in the Bulls last 8 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following a win by more than 10 points. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. |