Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-19-23 | James Madison v. Marshall +3.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 6 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over James Madison. The Dukes come into this game with an undefeated 6-0 record, but I like Marshall to hand them their first defeat of the season. Marshall will be looking to redeem itself after two road losses at NC State (48-41) and Georgia St (41-24). And the Herd are 12-3-1 ATS at home off a SU/ATS loss when not favored by more than 3 points. Even better: Sun Belt conference underdogs (or PK) are a solid 87-59 ATS in conference games off back to back SU/ATS losses. And undefeated teams, off back to back ATS wins, with a 5-0 (or better) record, have covered just 14% as home favorites of less than 25 points vs. conference foes off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take Marshall + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-23 | Rice +3 v. Tulsa | Top | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 38 h 3 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls + the points over Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane come into this American Athletic Conference game off a loss, 20-17, at Florida Atlantic. Unfortunately, they're a horrid 9-43-2 ATS at home off a loss, when matched up against a non-winning team, and not favored by 17+ points. That doesn't bode well for Tulsa. Nor does the fact that Rice is also off a SU/ATS loss, 38-31, vs. UConn. And the Owls are 62-45 ATS in conference games off a SU/ATS conference defeat. Take Rice + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks +117 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 117 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Philadelphia Phillies. So much for NL "small ball." The Phillies have dominated their opposition in this post-season, not by getting on base and stealing second or bunting players over. They've done it by way of the long ball -- 19 in their eight post-season games so far. Many of those have been of the solo variety, but that hardly matters when you're sending balls over the fence as often as they are. That could change with a trip to the Desert. The Phillies won't be in their homer-friendly ballpark tonight but instead in a place where the long ball doesn't happen nearly as often. They'll also be facing a starting pitcher that they've never seen before in 25-year-old rookie RH Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt doesn't have numbers that jump off the page at you, but guess what else he doesn't do? He doesn't give up home runs when pitching at Chase Field (only one long ball in his last five starts here). And Pfaadt shut down the Dodgers in his only NLDS start against them (4 1/3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER). Take the D-Backs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-23 | Astros +120 v. Rangers | Top | 8-5 | Win | 120 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. Tonight will represent a couple of long-awaited events in baseball. It will be the first Championship Series game to be played in Arlington, TX since 2011, so the crowd will surely be amped up, especially given that the home team already has a 2-0 lead in this series. But tonight's ALCS Game 3 will also be Max Scherzer's first start in over a month. The future Hall-of-Fame RH pitcher hasn't been on the mound since a September 12 start against the Blue Jays. Scherzer hit the bench with a shoulder issue after that appearance but has been deemed ready to come back tonight on the biggest of stages. But don't expect the three-time Cy Young winner to pitch more than four innings and there-in may lie the problem for the Rangers, who have been getting deep runs from their starters throughout their undefeated post-season. In 27 career post-season games (22 starts) Scherzer is just 7-7 and he has a career 4.56 ERA in five starts here at Globe Life Field. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-18-23 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers 'under' the total. If there's one pitcher in these MLB Playoffs who wants to atone for a less than ideal, let-down of a regular season, it's the Astros Cristian Javier. The veteran RH had a breakout campaign in 2022, winning 11 of 25 starts with a 2.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Big things were expected from the 26-year-old entering 2023, but instead of building on those numbers, Javier struggled through much of the season, posting a 4.56 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 31 starts. Fortunately his teammates picked him up and Houston won its third straight AL West title (sixth of the last seven years) and now Javier looks to redeem himself in a big way. He's already shown how great he can be in his only ALDS start, tossing five shutout innings vs. the Twins, allowing just one hit while striking out nine and walking none. With 3-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer on the other side tonight, runs could be very scarce at Globe Life Field. The under was 4-1-1 in Javier's last six regular season starts. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies 'under' the total. It didn't take long for the Phillies to show that they mean business in their second straight NLCS. Kyle Schwarber hit the first pitch he saw over the right field wall and Bryce Harper homered two batters later to set the tone in Game 1. The Phillies' hitters ambushed Zac Gallen's fastball last night and held on for a 5-3 win to take a 1-0 series lead on the D-Backs. Philadelphia's big bats will see a different type of pitcher tonight in the D-Backs Merrill Kelly. Gallen throws his fastball 50% of the time and the Phillies jumped all over it in Game 1. The 35-year-old Kelly throws a lot more off-speed pitches and that may cause problems for the free-swinging Philadelphia lineup. But the D-Backs hitters could have the same problems against Philly RH Aaron Nola, who has been stellar this post-season with a 2-0 record and 1.42 ERA. Kelly hasn't been getting love from his hitters lately as the D-Backs have plated more than three runs in just five of his last 14 starts. And the D-Backs are 19-12 Under behind Kelly this season, and 72-50 Under in his career starts. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-15-23 | Giants +14 v. Bills | Top | 9-14 | Win | 100 | 86 h 25 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Buffalo Bills. The Bills come into this game off a loss last Sunday in London. I will fade Buffalo, as NFL teams have gone 4-18 ATS in the United States following a game in London. Moreover, the Giants have lost all five games ATS this season. However, underdogs off 5 ATS losses have covered 64.8%, including 12-3 ATS when getting more than 11 points. Grab the points with New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-23 | Lions v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 34 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over Detroit. The Lions come into this Sunday's game on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak. But they will have to play a rested Tampa Bay team coming off its bye week. We'll grab the points with Tampa, as Detroit is an ugly 3-26 ATS off a home win, if it owned a win percentage of .692 (or better), including 0-13 ATS vs. an opponent off a straight-up win. Take Tampa Bay. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-23 | Patriots +3 v. Raiders | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -109 | 82 h 19 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders. New England was shut out, 34-0, last week by New Orleans. And that was the 4th time the Patriots have been shut out under coach Bill Belichick. How did New England do after those three previous shutout defeats? They went 3-0 SU/ATS, and scored 31, 40 and 33 points. This week, they'll play a Raiders team off a SU/ATS win last Monday vs. Green Bay. We'll grab the points with the Patriots, as they've gone 22-0-1 ATS on the road in the regular season off a loss when playing an opponent off a win. And Las Vegas is 29-68-1 ATS as a favorite vs. a foe off a loss. Take New England. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-23 | Patriots v. Raiders OVER 41.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -107 | 82 h 14 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders Over the total. The Patriots were shut out, 34-0, last week by the Saints. And New England has scored just 18 points over its three previous games -- each of which went under the total. But off this string of low-scoring games, we'll look for a higher scoring game, here, as NFL games have gone Over the total 62.1% over the last 36 seasons, if a team scored 25 points or less over its three previous games, and each went under the total. Even better: the Patriots have gone Over 64% after not scoring 10 or more points in their previous game. Take the Over. |
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10-15-23 | Vikings -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 13 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over the Chicago Bears. The Bears blew out Washington by 20 points for their first win of the season, while Minnesota also has just 1 victory, which was an 8 point win at Carolina two weeks ago. The Vikings have been saddled with a difficult opening schedule, as their four losses have all been to teams that made the playoffs last season, including Philadelphia and Kansas City, the two Super Bowl participants. But now, the Vikings will play the Bears who, like Carolina, is one of the worst teams in the league. Minnesota is 15-9-1 its last 25 as road favorites, while Chicago is 1-13 SU and 3-10 ATS as home underdogs. And NFC North division teams off a loss are 68-43 ATS vs. division rivals off a win. Lay the points with the Vikings. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-23 | Panthers +14 v. Dolphins | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 10 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Miami Dolphins. The Panthers are 0-5 straight-up, and 1-4-1 ATS, including 0-3 SU/ATS in their last 3 games. I look for Carolina to break through with its first ATS win this season, as underdogs of more than 5 points have gone 121-79 ATS in non-division games off 3 SU/ATS losses. Take the Panthers + the points. |
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10-15-23 | Saints v. Texans OVER 42.5 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 7 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Houston Texans Over the total. The Saints shut out the New England Patriots last week, 34-0. And that game went under the total. But off that shutout win, I'll look for a higher scoring game at Houston, as NFL teams off shutout wins have gone over the total 59% in games with O/U lines > 42. Additionally, the Texans are 26-12 Over at home following back to back Unders. This will be a high scoring game. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-23 | Seahawks v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Seattle. The Bengals got off the schneid last week when they blew out Arizona, 34-20, for their first point spread win of the season. They'll now host the Seahawks, who had last week off following a 24-3 annihilation of the New York Giants. The Bengals are still undervalued, in my estimation, and I'll lay the short number. Cincinnati is a powerful 17-0-1 ATS when not laying 7 or more points, if its foe had a Win Percentage between .400 and .823. And Seattle is 17-32 ATS off a win by more than 20 points. Take the Bengals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-23 | 49ers v. Browns +7.5 | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 79 h 2 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over San Francisco. It's unclear if Deshaun Watson will return from his rotator cuff injury this week. If he can't go, then PJ Walker will start for Cleveland. I'll take the points with the Browns, as I look for them to bounce back strong off their bye week. Indeed, home underdogs of more than 5 points off their Bye week have gone 33-12 ATS vs. unrested foes. And NFL home dogs (or PK) off blowout losses by more than 2 TDs have covered 61.8% vs. foes off blowout wins by more than 2 TDs. Grab the points with Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-23 | Boise State v. Colorado State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Boise State/Colorado State game. The Broncos come into this road game off 4 straight Overs. I look for a lower-scoring game on Saturday night, as Mountain West conference teams off 4+ Overs have proceeded to go Under the total 61.1 percent of the time. Even better: the Rams have gone Under the total 12-1 at home when the game had a point spread of 6 or more points. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-23 | NC State +3.5 v. Duke | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack + the points over Duke. The Blue Devils come into this game off a SU/ATS home loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago. That lowered Duke's record to 4-1 on the season. And it's also undefeated in ACC Conference play. We'll play against Duke on Saturday night, as ACC teams off a loss have not fared well as favorites vs. Conference foes that have a worse conference record, as well as a worse record, overall. Even worse: Duke has covered just 16 of 50 as a favorite off a straight-up loss. Take NC State + the points. |
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10-14-23 | UAB v. UTSA -9 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over UAB. The Blazers blew out South Florida, 56-35, as a 3.5-point home underdog last Saturday. Unfortunately, UAB is a miserable 0-7 ATS off a win, and 20-40 ATS after scoring 34+ points. Take Texas-San Antonio minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-23 | Missouri v. Kentucky UNDER 50.5 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Kentucky/Missouri game. The Wildcats return home after getting shellacked, 51-13, at Georgia last week. We had a huge play on the Bulldogs, so that result was not unexpected. But I expect the Wildcats to play much better on Saturday night at home, and especially on the defensive side of the ball. Going into that Georgia game, Kentucky was allowing just 15.2 ppg. The Wildcats have gone Under in 31 of their last 45 SEC Conference games, including 13-2 Under when the O/U line was between 48 and 56 points. Take the Under. |
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10-14-23 | Auburn v. LSU UNDER 61 | Top | 18-48 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Under in the LSU/Auburn game. The LSU Tigers have scored an average of 44.8 ppg this season. And all 6 games have gone Over the total. I expect a much lower-scoring game on Saturday, as Auburn owns the best defense the Tigers will have faced yet this season. Auburn is giving up just 322.8 yards per game, 5.19 yards per play, and 18.20 ppg. Indeed, the Tigers have held their five opponents to an average of 15.33 points below their scoring average. And they've gone 58-38 Under their last 96. Finally, this Auburn/LSU series has gone 17-6 under, including each of the five meetings over the previous five years. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-23 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech -1 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Kansas State. We played on the Red Raiders last week, and they rewarded us with a blowout win, 39-14, at Baylor. That triumph moved Texas Tech's record to 3-3, and it was the Red Raiders' second straight win by more than 20 points. We'll take Texas Tech to continue its win streak on Saturday, as it's a powerful 38-11-2 ATS at home when it didn't own a winning record. Lay the opoints. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-23 | Wyoming v. Air Force -11 | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons minus the points over Wyoming. This is a big revenge game for Air Force, which lost, 17-14, at Wyoming last season as a 16.5-point favorite. Last Saturday, the Cowboys pulled off a big upset last week when they defeated the then-unbeaten Fresno State Bulldogs, 24-19. Unfortunately, teams off upset wins over undefeated foes have burned money in their following game, and especially on the road against revenge-minded foes. We'll lay the points with Air Force. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-23 | Marshall +1.5 v. Georgia State | Top | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd over Georgia State. The Panthers were upset, 28-7, here at home by Troy in their previous game. We'll grab the points with Marshall, as it's cashed 67% as an underdog (or PK) vs. foes off a loss, while the Panthers have covered just 13 of 32 at home off a SU loss. Take Marshall. |
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10-14-23 | Arizona v. Washington State -7.5 | Top | 44-6 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Arizona. The Wildcats lost in Overtime last week, 43-41, to #10-ranked Southern Cal. They now have to dust themselves off that difficult loss, and travel to Pullman to play the #19-ranked Cougars. I generally don't like playing on teams off such heartbreaking losses, and I won't make an exception here. And especially given how poorly the Wildcats have played off an ATS win away from home vs. winning foes when the Wildcats were an underdog of less than 20 points. Since 2009, they're 0-16 ATS. Finally, Washington State is a perfect 9-0 ATS at home off a loss when not getting more than 2 points. Take the Cougars. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh +7.5 | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Louisville. We had a huge play on the Cardinals last week, and were rewarded with an upset victory over Notre Dame, as a 6.5-point home underdog. But off that big upset win, we'll fade the Cards as a favorite vs. Pitt. Since 1980, teams off upset wins over Notre Dame have gone 20-37-3 ATS, including 6-21-1 ATS when favored by less than 17 points (or PK). And the Cardinals are a wallet-busting 5-24-1 ATS away from home off back to back wins, if they were matched up against a foe not off a SU/ATS win. Take Pittsburgh + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-23 | Oregon v. Washington -3 | Top | 33-36 | Push | 0 | 43 h 43 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Oregon. Both of these teams come into this huge Pac-12 Conference game with 5-0 records. And the Ducks are also 5-0 ATS, to boot. We'll go against Oregon, as Pac-12 road underdogs, with a 2-0 (or better) record inside the conference, have covered just 32.3% since 1980 vs. Pac-12 foes with a winning conference record. The Huskies are an awesome 25-10 ATS when priced from -2 to -8.5 points. And Washington also falls into 72-26 and 60-23 ATS systems of mine that play on certain home teams with win percentages > .750. Take the Huskies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-23 | Miami-OH -8 v. Western Michigan | Top | 34-21 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks minus the points over Western Michigan. We played on the RedHawks last week at home vs. Bowling Green, and Miami shut out the Falcons, 27-0. That was Miami's 5th straight win and cover, and 2nd straight game where it kept its opponent out of the end zone. Today, Miami will travel to Kalamazoo to take on the Broncos. And Miami will be looking to snap an 8-game losing streak in the series. I like the RedHawks to blow out Western Michigan, as the Broncos are a brutal 6-22-3 ATS as a home underdog, including 0-5 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes, and 0-12-1 ATS vs. foes off wins by 20+ points. Take Miami. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-23 | Kansas v. Oklahoma State +3 | Top | 32-39 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Kansas. The Jayhawks pulled off an upset last week, at home, vs. Central Florida. Kansas was a 2-point underdog vs. the Knights, and won, 51-22. The Jayhawks are favored here, in Stillwater, vs. the 3-2 Cowboys. And we'll fade Kansas, as it's a wallet-busting 32-65-2 ATS on the road vs. foes that don't have a losing record. Grab the points with Oklahoma St. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-23 | Texas A&M v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Texas A&M. The Aggies have, for a long time, under-performed away from College Station. And especially when matched up against the better teams. Since 1980, the Aggies are an awful 27-67 ATS away from home in the regular season vs. .636 (or better) foes. That doesn't bode well for Jimbo Fisher's men. Nor does the fact that the Volunteers had last week off to rest and prepare for this big SEC game, given that A&M is just 5-20 ATS on the road vs. rested foes, including 0-11 ATS vs. foes off a double-digit win. Lay the points with Tennessee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-23 | Georgia v. Vanderbilt UNDER 55.5 | Top | 37-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Under in the Vanderbilt/Georgia game. The Bulldogs have shut out the Commodores each of the past two seasons. Not surprisingly, both of those games went Under the total. And this series has seen 10 of the last 15 meetings go Under. I expect another low-scoring game on Saturday afternoon, as Georgia is 40-31 Under vs. SEC foes, while the Commodores are 48-30 Under in SEC Conference games (and 18-4 Under their last 22 when getting 20+ points). Take the Under. |
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10-13-23 | Fresno State v. Utah State +5 | Top | 37-32 | Push | 0 | 38 h 17 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Fresno State. The Bulldogs had won 14 straight games (dating back to last season) before last week's upset road loss at the hands of the Wyoming Cowboys. Fresno will try to avoid losing for the 2nd straight week, but I don't think it will succeed. The Bulldogs' starting QB, Mikey Keene, sustained an injury in last week's game, and will likely give way to backup Logan Fife for this game. Keene has been brilliant this season, as he's thrown for 1,692 yards and 15 TDs, with just four interceptions. Fife was 7-for-11 vs. Wyoming, but threw a costly interception late in the game. And he's had a high turnover rate, as last season, he was 84-for-120 with 2 TDs but 6 Interceptions. Take Utah State + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-13-23 | Tulane v. Memphis +5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -112 | 37 h 18 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Tulane. The Tigers and Green Wave are both 4-1 on the season. Each won its previous game two weeks ago, as Tulane downed UAB, 35-23, while Memphis bested Boise St., 35-32. Memphis has been installed as a home underdog, and the Tigers fall into 80-37 and 79-27 ATS systems of mine that play on certain rested teams at home. Additionally, Tulane has covered just 20% of its conference road games vs. rested foes over the past 44 seasons. Take Memphis + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-12-23 | Broncos +10.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos are off to a 1-4 SU/0-4-1 ATS start, after last week's upset loss against the Jets, while KC is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS following a 27-20 victory vs. Minnesota. We'll grab the points with the Broncos, as AFC West division teams with a losing record, have gone 144-84-7 ATS in division road games if they weren't favored by more than 3 points. Even better: Kansas City is 10-20-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite vs. losing teams. And NFL teams off upset losses have cashed 63.1 percent since 1980 in Thursday games vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. Take Denver. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-12-23 | Braves -140 v. Phillies | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -140 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are trying to knock off the NL East Champion Braves in the Division Series as a Wild Card for the second straight season and they're one win away from doing it. Philly pounded the Braves' pitching last night with 11 hits -- six of them home runs in a 10-2 demolition. The only good news for Atlanta is that it had 10 hits of its own in the game. On paper at least, tonight's must win game for the Braves is a pitching mis-match as they're back to their ace, RH Spencer Strider while the Phils will go with LHP Ranger Suarez. Strider will be top 3 in the Cy Young balloting while Suarez went 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 22 starts this season. That doesn't mean the visitors can look past this game, but Strider did lead the league in strikeouts and he pitched a gem in Game 1 only to lose when his team failed to score a run. One thing about Suarez is that he struggled mightily at home this season, going 1-3 with a 5.45 ERA in 12 starts here at Citizens Bank Park (vs. 3-3 and 2.75 on the road). Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-12-23 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -117 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies 'over' the total. The Braves' Spencer Strider will be starting Game 4 of the NLDS tonight with the Phillies handing the ball to Ranger Suarez. I like the Over, as both of these clubs feature plenty of free-swingers and power hitters capable of clearing the wall in any of the 30 MLB venues, but it's even more likely to happen here in Philadelphia. Indeed, only three other parks in baseball—Coors Field, Great American Ballpark, and American Family Field (Miller Park)—have been as friendly to power hitters as the bandbox known as Citizens Bank Ballpark. And we saw that yesterday when 12 runs were scored in Philly's 10-2 victory. In Strider's last six regular season starts, a total of 70 runs were scored, with less than eight plated in only one of those. Take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-12-23 | West Virginia v. Houston +3 | Top | 39-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over West Virginia. The Mountaineers pulled off a major upset in their previous game, when they won outright, 24-21, as a 13-point road underdog at TCU. But off that huge win, we'll fade WVU tonight, as road favorites with a winning record have cashed just 31% over the last 44 seasons following an upset road win as a double-digit dog, if their current opponent was off a straight-up loss. With Houston in off a 49-28 loss at Texas Tech, we'll grab the points with the Cougars. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-23 | Astros v. Twins -116 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Houston Astros. With a dominant win behind Cristian Javier on Tuesday, the Astros are just one win away from advancing to their seventh straight ALCS. It may seem like a forgone conclusion that they will get there however the 'Stros have a very formidable opponent standing in front of them on the road this afternoon. The Central Division Champion Twins will send RH Joe Ryan to the mound to make his MLB post-season debut. The 27-year-old has emerged from nowhere to be one of the most consistent starters in the AL over the past two seasons. Overall in 2023, Ryan went 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA in 29 starts but he was much more dominant at home. In 14 starts at Target Field, Ryan logged a 7-4 record with a 3.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP (vs. 4-6 and 5.22/1.26 in 15 starts on the road). In his last six regular season starts -- all in September -- the Twins went 4-2. And in 13 daytime starts this season, Ryan logged a 3.65 ERA vs. 5.24 in 16 starts under the lights. Take Minny. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-11-23 | Braves +110 v. Phillies | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 17 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. With both Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton out for the NLDS, the Braves are left with some less-than-ideal choices to start Game 3 tonight. Those choices came down to Bryce Elder and top prospect AJ Smith Shawver, but Atlanta is very hesitant to throw a 20-year-old out there in front of an insane Phillies crowd for his first MLB playoff start. So it will be the 24-year-old RH from Texas with the weight of the Braves' post-season hopes on his broad shoulders. Elder broke out in his second MLB season, going 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA in 31 starts for Atlanta. More importantly, in his only start at Citizens Bank Park, Elder threw seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits with six strikeouts and two walks in a 5-1 Braves victory on June 22. The Phillies will go with RH Aaron Nola this evening. Nola faced the Braves three times in 2023 and although he had no record against them, he was on the losing side in two of those games, including that June 22 match-up with Elder on the other side. Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-10-23 | Astros v. Twins -128 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -128 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Houston Astros. In what may be one of the riskiest moves in the MLB playoffs, the Astros will send RHP Cristian Javier to the mound to start this critical ALDS Game 3 today in Minneapolis (the series is tied 1-1). Back in the Spring, this wouldn't be considered risky at all as the 26-year-old was coming off of a career season in 2022, having gone 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA in his first campaign as a full-time starter. But Javier struggled mightily through most of 2023, having seen his ERA balloon by more than two runs (4.56) while his strikeout rate has dropped dramatically (11.7 to 8.8) and his walks have increased. On the other side, the Twins have to feel pretty good about having a veteran like Sonny Gray available for their first home ALDS game since getting swept by the Yankees in 2019. The 33-year-old RH has a ton of post-season pitching experience going all the way back to 2013 when he was a rookie with the Oakland As. In five playoff starts covering 26 1/3 innings, Gray has logged a 2.39 ERA. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -147 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -147 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. In one of the biggest shockers of the MLB post-season, Dodger legend and future Hall-of-Fame pitcher Clayton Kershaw lasted just 1/3 of an inning in Game 1 of this series on Saturday night as the Diamondbacks rolled to an easy 11-2 victory. If Saturday night was Dodger pitching past and present then tonight will be the future as 24-year-old RH Bobby Miller takes the mound in what is pretty much a must-win situation for the NL West champs. Miller had a fantastic first season in the Majors, going 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 22 starts covering just over 124 innings. In two starts this season vs. Arizona covering 12 innings, Miller is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA. Since the beginning of August, the Dodgers have won eight of Miller's 11 starts, including two victories against this D-Backs team as well as wins against the Braves, Brewers, Mariners, and Giants. Prior to the loss in Game 1, the Dodgers won five straight vs. Arizona. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-23 | Phillies v. Braves -146 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. Despite having the most potent offense in the National League -- including the best player in OF Ronald Acuna -- the Braves were completely shut down by the Phillies in Atlanta in Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday. Philadelphia's pitching and defense completely dominated Game 1 despite a solid outing from Braves ace Spencer Strider. Now the Phils will try to take a 2-0 series lead behind #1 starter Zack Wheeler who was dominant in his Wild Card series start last Tuesday. But that was against the Marlins and now he'll be going up against a lineup that is an order of magnitude more dangerous in the Braves. Atlanta will go with LH Max Fried. Since the 29-year-old southpaw returned from an early season injury he's been one of the best starters in the game. In nine starts since August 4, Fried went 6-0 with a 2.79 ERA with 55 strikeouts and 12 walks in just under 52 innings and the Braves are 8-1 in those starts and 11-3 in his 14 starts this season. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-23 | Twins +130 v. Astros | Top | 6-2 | Win | 130 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Houston Astros. The visiting teams in the first game of the ALDS yesterday were at a disadvantage in that they couldn't go back to their #1 starters while the home teams -- off for a week -- had fresh pitching rotations. That didn't seem to matter to the Rangers or Phillies but the Astros took full advantage and chased Twins starter Bailey Ober after just three innings. But now Minny is back to #1 starter Pablo Lopez who was brilliant in the Twins' first Wild Card game last Tuesday. In that one, the 27-year-old RH -- who the Twins acquired from Miami in exchange for the now 2-time batting champion Luis Arraez -- threw 5 2/3 solid innings, allowing one run on five hits in a 3-1 victory over Toronto. Now with full rest, Lopez will go to the mound tonight in an effort to even this series. Lopez did his best work on the road in the 2023 regular season as his ERA away from Target Field was more than a run lower than it was at home (3.10 vs. 4.21). Also, since August 1, Minnesota has gone 9-3 in Lopez' last 12 starts. Take the Twins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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10-08-23 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 41 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 19 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos and New York Jets Under the total. The Jets have been installed as a small road underdog in this game. And New York has gone under the total 9 of its last 10 games that have been competitively-priced with point spreads of 4 or less. Meanwhile, Denver is 42-22-1 Under the total its last 65 as favorites, including 8-1 Under its last 9 when favored at home by 3 or less points. Take the Under. |
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10-08-23 | Texans v. Falcons -2 | Top | 19-21 | Push | 0 | 148 h 57 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Houston. I played on the Houston Texans each of the last two weeks, and was rewarded with upset wins over Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. But I can't get behind Houston off those back to back upset wins. Indeed, since 1980, NFL road underdogs off back to back upset wins have cashed just 37 percent vs. non-division foes off back to back losses. I'll lay the points with Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-23 | Titans v. Colts -1 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 148 h 56 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts over Tennessee. Last week, the Titans upset the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-3, as a 2.5-point home underdog. But off that big upset win, I'll fade Mike Vrabel's men on the division road, as division road underdogs have covered just 41% since 1980 off a double-digit upset home win, including just 33% vs. foes off a home loss. And the Colts are, indeed off a home loss. Even better: Indy is 53-30 ATS off a straight-up defeat. Take the Colts. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-23 | Ravens v. Steelers +4 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 148 h 56 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection in on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens/Steelers rivalry is among the best in the NFL. And one of the things I love to do in this series is take the underdog if it owns the worse Won/Loss record. Since 2010, the underdog in this situation has gone 12-0-1 ATS. That bodes well for Pittsburgh as a home underdog. As does that the fact that home dogs have cashed 61% off a loss by 15 or more points, if matched up against a division foe off a 15-point (or greater) win. With the Steelers off a 30-6 blowout loss, and Baltimore off a 28-3 win, we’ll grab the points with Mike Tomlin’s men. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-23 | Texans v. Falcons OVER 41 | Top | 19-21 | Loss | -107 | 148 h 55 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the game between Houston and Atlanta. The Falcons only scored 7 in their game in London, England last Sunday. I look for a higher-scoring game back in the States, as teams have gone Over the total 60% following an international game. Additionally, the Falcons have gone 26-6 Over the total after scoring less than 10 points, if the O/U line was between 36.5 and 44.5 points. Take the Over. |
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10-08-23 | Saints v. Patriots OVER 38.5 | Top | 34-0 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 54 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints Over the total. Both the Patriots and Saints come into this game off blowout losses. New Orleans was upset at home by Tampa Bay, 26-9, while New England was blown out by the Cowboys, 38-3. With both teams scoring less than 10 points last week, and averaging less than 16 points on the season, the knee jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game here. But I'll run the other way and take the OVER, as NFL games have gone Over the total 57% of the time if both teams failed to score 10 or more points in their previous game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-23 | Giants +12.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Miami Dolphins. Both of these teams come into this game off blowout losses: New York fell, 24-3, on Monday night, at home, vs. Seattle, while Miami lost, 48-20, at Buffalo. The difference, of course, is that Miami had covered the point spread in its first three games, while the Giants have yet to cover the spread this season. The good news for New York is that NFL underdogs on 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have covered 58% of non-division games since 1980. Additionally, the Dolphins are 9-24 ATS when favored by 9+ points, including 4-18 ATS vs. foes not off an ATS win, while the Giants are 27-14 ATS when getting 9 or more. We'll grab the points with New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-23 | Arizona v. USC -21.5 | Top | 41-43 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 33 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Arizona. The Wildcats almost pulled off a big upset last week, but they lost by 7 vs. Washington, as a 19-point home underdog. We'll fade the Wildcats as they're a wallet-breaking 0-17 ATS away from home vs. .500 (or better) foes, if Arizona was not favored by 6 (or more) points, and off an ATS win. Take USC. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-23 | Texas Tech -1 v. Baylor | Top | 39-14 | Win | 100 | 77 h 4 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders over Baylor. The Bears pulled off a huge upset last Saturday at Central Florida, when they knocked off the Knights, 36-35, as an 8-point road underdog. Unfortunately, Baylor is a brutal 0-8 ATS at home off an upset win. Take the Red Raiders. |
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10-07-23 | TCU v. Iowa State +6.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over TCU. The Horned Frogs were upset last week, 24-21, at home as a 13-point favorite. And now, they've been installed as a road favorite vs. the Cyclones. I don't like backing road favorites (like TCU) off big upset losses and will fade the Frogs tonight, in Ames. The Cyclones check in off a 30-point loss at Oklahoma, and also play this game with revenge from a 48-point loss at TCU last season. That was Iowa State's biggest loss in 8 seasons, and Big 12 Conference home underdogs have cashed 69% since 1991, if they were playing with revenge from a 47-point (or worse) defeat. Grab the points with the Cyclones. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-23 | Notre Dame v. Louisville +6.5 | Top | 20-33 | Win | 100 | 77 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Notre Dame. This is the 3rd straight week that the Irish will be playing an undefeated team, and they've been installed as a road favorite vs. the 6-0 Cardinals. Last week, the Irish were exceptionally fortunate to escape with a victory against Duke. But I don't think they will leave Louisville with a 'W' on Saturday night. Notre Dame has covered just 36% as a road favorite vs. undefeated teams dating back to 1980. And the Cardinals are an awesome 9-0 ATS as a regular season underdog vs. .800 (or better) non-conference foes. Grab the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-23 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -11.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -107 | 77 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels minus the points over Arkansas. Last year, Ole Miss lost at Arkansas, 42-27. We'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Rebels, as Arkansas is an awful 0-9 ATS when priced from +10 to +13.5 points vs. a revenge-minded foe. Take Mississippi. |
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10-07-23 | Kentucky v. Georgia -14.5 | Top | 13-51 | Win | 100 | 76 h 18 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Kentucky. The Bulldogs will welcome the 5-0 Wildcats to Athens on Saturday evening. Georgia's won the last 13 games in this series, and is 12-8-1 ATS at home vs. Kentucky, including 7-1 ATS if the Bulldogs entered the game off a point spread defeat. Last week, the Bulldogs failed to cover against Auburn. But I love them to bounce back in a big way here, at home, as Georgia is 28-15-1 ATS at home off an ATS loss when priced from -10 to -28 points. And undefeated SEC Conference teams have cashed 61% in conference games as a favorite off an ATS defeat. Lay the points with the Bulldogs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-23 | Old Dominion v. Southern Miss -2.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles minus the points over Old Dominion. The Golden Eagles lost here, at home, to Texas State, 50-36, last Saturday, and come into this game off 4 straight ATS defeats. And those point spread failures have kept a lid on this number, to the point that there's value on the Golden Eagles. Sun Belt Conference teams off 3 ATS losses have gone 34-13 ATS if they were off a double-digit loss. And the Golden Eagles have covered 67% since 1980 as a home favorite off a SU conference loss at home the previous week. We'll lay the points with Southern Mississippi. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves -195 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -195 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves come into this game having tied the 2019 Twins' record for 307 home runs in the regular season. Certainly, the Braves are the favorite to win the World Series, and we'll back them in this Game 1 behind Spencer Strider. This season, Strider made 12 starts vs. division rivals, and the Braves won all 12. Meanwhile, the Phillies were 3-6 in Ranger Suarez's nine starts vs. National League East division rivals. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-23 | Twins +142 v. Astros | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
At 4:45 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Houston Astros. For all that Justin Verlander has accomplished in his pro baseball career, you might be surprised to learn how much the veteran has struggled in the post-season recently. In 2019, Verlander went 1-4 with a 4.33 ERA in six playoff starts against the Rays, Yankees, and Nationals. And then last season, Verlander posted a 5.85 ERA in four starts against the Mariners, Yankees, and Phillies. Nevertheless, the 'Stros will send their 39-year-old future Hall-of-Fame RHP out to start their 2023 post-season this afternoon. Hardly anyone has mentioned the Twins but people -- especially opponents -- had better start taking notice. Minnesota easily dispatched of Toronto in the first round and in the process got a major monkey off its back (an 18-game playoff losing streak coming in). Minny will send RHP Bailey Ober to the mound at Minute Maid Park today. You could say the 28-year-old is the opposite of Verlander -- no post-season experience (good or bad) in his past and a long way from Cooperstown. But Ober had a 5-3 record on the road this season (vs. 3-3 at home) and the Twins have won four of his last five overall. And the Twins have gone 17-9 (+12.7 net games) as an underdog with Ober on the mound. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-07-23 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State -23.5 | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 51 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Virginia Tech. The Hokies snapped their 3-game losing streak with an upset win over Pittsburgh last week. But off that big win, we'll fade Virginia Tech in Tallahassee on Saturday. Va Tech is a miserable 1-12 ATS their last 13 off a win, including 0-7 ATS on the road. Lay the points with Florida State. |
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10-07-23 | Alabama v. Texas A&M +2.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 41 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas A/M Aggies + the points over Alabama. Last season, the Crimson Tide edged the Aggies, 24-20, as a 24.5-point favorite. The number is considerably less this year, and we'll take the homestanding Aggies + the points, as they're 20-7 ATS at home when playing with revenge against an opponent off a win, if the Aggies weren't laying 3 or more points. Meanwhile, Alabama is a soft 6-13 ATS when not laying 7+ points, if the Crimson Tide weren't off a loss, or playing with revenge. Take Texas A/M + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-23 | Northern Illinois v. Akron +6.5 | Top | 55-14 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 37 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Akron Zips +the points over Northern Illinois. The Zips lost starting QB DJ Irons last week, late in the 4th quarter, and went on to lose at Buffalo, in overtime, 13-10. Sixth-year senior, Jeff Undercuffler, Jr., took over under center for Irons, and he has experience as a starting QB. Indeed, last year, he started against this Huskies squad, and led the Zips to a 44-12 blowout win. We'll grab the points with the home underdog, as Northern Illinois is 0-11 ATS when priced from -2.5 to -10 points, and 0-12-1 ATS off a road point spread win, when the line in its current game was 14 points or less. Take Akron. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-23 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH -9.5 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 73 h 36 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks minus the points over Bowling Green. The Falcons pulled off a major upset last week when they went into Georgia Tech and stunned the Yellow Jackets, 38-27, as a 21-point underdog. Unfortunately, conference underdogs off a road win over a non-conference foe, as a 14.5-point (or greater) underdog, have covered just 28% since 1980, including 0-14 ATS their last 14 when priced from +3.5 to +16. Lay the points with Miami-Ohio. |
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10-07-23 | Washington State v. UCLA -3.5 | Top | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 72 h 12 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Washington State. The Cougars pulled off an upset in their previous game when they toppled Oregon State, 38-35. Meanwhile, the Bruins come into this game off a 14-7 loss to Utah. We'll fade Wazzu at UCLA, as the Bruins have cashed 79% since 1980 vs. conference foes that were in off a home upset win over a fellow Pac-12 Conference foe. Even better: Pac-12 teams have covered 61.3% since 1980 after failing to score 10+ points in defeat, if they were matched up in their current game against an opponent off a straight-up win. Take UCLA minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-23 | Maryland v. Ohio State -20 | Top | 17-37 | Push | 0 | 69 h 19 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Maryland. The Buckeyes had a dreadful offensive game vs. the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, as they were held scoreless in the 2nd half until they scored the game-winning touchdown with 1 second left, to prevail, 17-14. I look for the Buckeyes to erupt on offense on Saturday, as they're 42-14 ATS in Big 10 Conference games after scoring less than 25 points in their previous game. This will be a roast. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-23 | Oklahoma +6.5 v. Texas | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 69 h 14 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners + the points over Texas. The Sooners play this game with MAJOR revenge, as the Longhorns blanked them, 49-0, last year. Needless to say, Oklahoma will be out for blood on Saturday. And I think it will get its revenge. The Sooners have cashed 88% away from home in the regular season when playing with revenge against a .571 (or better) foe. And NCAA teams playing with revenge from a 45-point (or worse) shutout loss have covered 64.8% since 1980 when not getting more than 20 points. Take the Sooners. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-23 | LSU v. Missouri UNDER 65 | Top | 49-39 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 8 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the UNDER in the LSU/Missouri game. Last week, Missouri triumphed at Vanderbilt, 38-21, while LSU was upset at Ole Miss, 55-49. Missouri has been installed as a home underdog vs. LSU in this early kickoff on Saturday. I look for a relatively low scoring game, as Missouri has gone Under the total 37-16-1 here, at home, if they weren't getting 14+ points. Moreover, Mizzou is 15-1 UNDER the total at home after failing to score 40 points while winning its previous game. And the Under also falls into totals systems of mine with records of 104-59 and 140-86. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-04-23 | Marlins +145 v. Phillies | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Philadelphia Phillies. Heading into the season, you figured that if the Marlins made it to the playoffs, they would almost certainly lead off with RH Sandy Alcantara. But the reigning NL Cy Young went on the IL in early September and so the Fish turned to LH Jesus Luzardo last night in Game 1 of the Wild Card series. After a tough loss, Miami will turn to another southpaw tonight in Braxton Garrett. Meanwhile, Phils RH Zack Wheeler was dealing for the home team -- not surprising given his career 2.78 ERA in the post-season. Tonight they will turn to RHP Aaron Nola -- an ace in his own right when he's on. The problem is that the 30-year-old hasn't been particularly good in October/November as Nola owns a 4.91 ERA in five post-season starts (all in 2022). Another potential issue tonight is Nola's career numbers vs. the Marlins. In 23 starts vs. Miami, Nola has an almost incomprehensible 5-10 record despite a decent ERA (3.53). And this season Nola went 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts vs. the Fish. Take Miami. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-03-23 | Rangers +137 v. Rays | Top | 4-0 | Win | 137 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rangers took 4 of 6 from the Rays this season, and I like them as an underdog in Game 1 of this season. Jordan Montgomery has given up 2 earned runs over his last 27 innings (0.66 ERA), and his strikeout to walk ration over this stretch is 22:5. In contrast, Tyler Glasnow's last four starts have been ugly: 14 runs over 20 1/3 innings, with a strikeout to walk ratio of 28:13. Over the last three seasons, the Rangers have gone 5-5 here in Tampa, with an average price of +155. We'll take the underdog Rangers this afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the New York Giants over the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks have won back to back games against the Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions. And they tallied 37 points in each victory. I’m going to go against them on the road at New York, as teams off back to back 37-point games have covered just 37% over the last 44 seasons when playing on the road vs. a foe off a straight-up loss, including 20% ATS in non-division games. Lay the points with New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-23 | Cardinals v. 49ers -14 | Top | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 91 h 23 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals blew out the previously-undefeated Cowboys, 28-16, as an 11-point home underdog. But off that win, I will fade Arizona at San Francisco. Since 1980, road underdogs have cashed just 42% off upset wins as double-digit dogs. Additionally, the 49ers are 32-20 ATS at home vs. foes that won outright as an underdog the previous week. And the Niners are also 13-1 ATS their last 14 home games when installed as the favorite. Take San Francisco minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-23 | Ravens +3 v. Browns | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 88 h 8 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over Cleveland. The Ravens were upset at home, 22-19, by the Indianapolis Colts last week. And Baltimore was a 7.5-point favorite in that game. But off that defeat, we’ll take the Ravens as a division road underdog at Cleveland. Indeed, division dogs, off an upset loss in which they failed to cover the point spread by more than 10 points, have covered 58% since 1980 vs. opponents that don’t have a better win percentage. That bodes well for John Harbaugh’s men on Sunday. As does the fact that the Ravens are 35-20-4 ATS on the road off an upset loss, including 14-3-1 ATS as an underdog vs. .666 (or better) foes. Take Baltimore. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-23 | Commanders +8 v. Eagles | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 88 h 1 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over Philadelphia. The Commanders lost for the first time this season when the Bills blew them out, 37-3, in Buffalo. But off that huge defeat, I’ll take Washington to rebound in this division game at Philly. Indeed, since 2000, .666 (or better) teams have gone 13-1 ATS as underdogs of +6 (or more) points, if they lost their previous game by more than 15 points. And the Commanders are also 27-13-2 ATS on the road off a home loss, if their win percentage was greater than .400. Grab the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-23 | Steelers v. Texans +3 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 88 h 0 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are 2-1 following an upset win last Sunday night at Las Vegas. They’re back on the road at Houston this week, and have been installed as a road favorite. Unfortunately for the Black and Gold, .666 (or better) road favorites have covered just 41% since 1980 off an upset road win, if matched up against an opponent with a losing record. Pittsburgh’s also a wallet-busting 26-52 as a non-division road favorite of minus 2 (or more) points. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-23 | Bucs v. Saints OVER 40.5 | Top | 26-9 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 0 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New Orleans/Tampa Bay game. The New Orleans Saints (along with the New York Jets) have played the lowest-scoring games in the NFL this season, as they’ve averaged just 34.33 ppg. Not surprisingly, all three have gone Under the total. But off this string of low-scoring games, I’ll look for a relatively high scoring game on Sunday, as the Over falls into Totals systems of mine that have cashed 66% and 68% since 1980. The Saints are also 46-27 Over at home off back-to-back Unders (including 17-8 Over off 3+ Unders). Take Tampa/New Orleans Over the total. |
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10-01-23 | Broncos v. Bears UNDER 46 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 88 h 60 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Denver Broncos/Chicago Bears game. Last Sunday, these two teams gave up an ungodly amount of points. Chicago allowed the Chiefs to score 41, while Denver gave up 70 to Miami. But off those two ugly defensive performances, I’ll look for a much better defensive effort given by both teams here. And NFL games with Over/Under lines of 46 or more, have gone Under the total 63% the last 38 years, if both of the teams gave up 35 or more points in their previous game. Take the Under |
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10-01-23 | Falcons v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 98 h 60 m | Show |
At 9:30 am, on Sunday, in a game played in London, England, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over Atlanta. Last week, I played against the Jaguars, and got the cash with Houston, which blew out Jacksonville, 37-17, as a 7.5-point underdog. After 2 straight home losses, maybe the Jaguars can find some better fortune across the pond, in England. I will lay the points with the Jaguars, as NFL teams have covered 69% the last 38 seasons away from home, if they were off a double-digit division loss as a favorite of more than 7 points. Additionally, the Falcons have only covered 3 of 16 (18.75%) away from home as an underdog of 3 or more points vs. an opponent off an upset loss. Lay the points with the Jaguars. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-23 | Washington v. Arizona UNDER 67.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 62 h 17 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Arizona/Washington game. Washington comes into this game off 4 straight offensive performances in which it tallied more than 40 points. But I expect the sledding to be more difficult for Washington on Saturday night in Tucson, as Arizona's giving up just 16 ppg, and all four of its games have gone Under the total (by an average of 15 ppg). The Wildcats have also gone Under 11-5 as a Pac-12 home underdog, while Washington's gone Under 12-6 as a Pac-12 road favorite. This will be a relatively low scoring game. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-23 | Notre Dame v. Duke +5.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -108 | 111 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Notre Dame. The Dukies are 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS under 2nd year coach, Mike Elko, including 7-0 ATS their last seven. On Saturday, Elko will match up against the team for which he served as defensive coordinator in 2017. Duke comes into this game with a 4-0 record, and is outscoring its opposition by 28.5 ppg. Notre Dame suffered a horrible loss last Saturday night at South Bend, when they gave up a touchdown to Ohio State with 1 second left in the game. The Irish are a soft 61-81-2 ATS off a loss, and 3-8 ATS as road favorites vs. .857 (or better) foes. That doesn't bode well for Notre Dame. Nor does the fact that home dogs of more than 3 points, with scoring margins greater than 28 points, have covered 63 percent of non-conference games over the past 44 seasons. Take Duke + the points. |
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09-30-23 | Texas State v. Southern Miss +7 | Top | 50-36 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 9 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles + the points over Texas State. The Bobcats come into this game off a 35-24 home win vs. Nevada. Unfortunately, Texas State is a terrible 5-24 SU and 9-19-1 ATS off a win. Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles suffered an upset loss, 44-37, at Arkansas State. But they've cashed 73% in Hattiesburg the last 42 years off an upset loss vs. a foe off a win. Grab the points with Southern Miss. |
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09-30-23 | Coastal Carolina +6.5 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -108 | 110 h 8 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Georgia Southern. Coastal Carolina was upset, 30-17, by Georgia State, in Conway, last Saturday. But off that upset loss, we'll take the home dog, as Sun Belt Conference home favorites have gone 10-27-1 ATS vs. foes off upset losses. Additionally, Georgia Southern is a poor 1-9 ATS its last 10 vs. foes off upset defeats. Take Coastal Carolina + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-23 | Texas State v. Southern Miss UNDER 62.5 | Top | 50-36 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 18 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Texas State/Southern Miss game. Last season, the Golden Eagles defeated the Bobcats, 20-14, and the game sailed under the total. I expect another relatively low scoring game in Hattiesburg on Saturday afternoon, as Southern Miss will be looking to bounce back off its upset loss last week, where it gave up 44 to Arkansas State. The Golden Eagles are 11-2 under off an upset loss as a road favorite. And they're also 12-1-1 under the total after allowing 44+ points, including 8-0 under their last eight. Take the UNDER. |
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09-30-23 | Missouri v. Vanderbilt UNDER 56.5 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 12 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt/Missouri game UNDER the total. The Tigers have gone 51-29-1 UNDER in their last 81 conference games, including 8-1-1 UNDER their last 10. Likewise, Vanderbilt has gone UNDER 48-28 its last 76 conference games. And eight of the last nine meetings between these rivals has gone UNDER the total. Additionally, the UNDER falls into totals systems of mine that have records of 103-56, 140-87, and 65-38. Take the Commodores and Tigers Under the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-23 | Georgia -14.5 v. Auburn | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 43 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Auburn. The Bulldogs have been installed as a double-digit road favorite at Auburn, and we'll lay the points with Kirby Smart's men, as it falls into Georgia's best point spread range. The Bulldogs are an eye-popping 29-1 straight-up, and 24-6 ATS when priced from -7 to -20 points, including 10-0 SU/ATS their last 10. Additionally, Georgia is 66-39 ATS on the road vs. winning foes, and 11-2 ATS its last 13 vs. Auburn (including 6-0 ATS since Dec 2017). Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-23 | Arkansas State v. UMass -1 | Top | 52-28 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 40 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Massachusetts Minutemen over Arkansas State. UMass opened its 2023 season with an upset win at New Mexico State, but has dropped its last four games to fall to 1-4. They'll welcome the Red Wolves to Amherst, and we'll take Don Brown's men on Saturday afternoon to snap their losing streak. Arkansas State upset Southern Miss, 44-37, as a 7-point home dog last week, and it's a dreadful 1-9 SU and 2-7-1 ATS on the road off an upset win as a 4-point (or greater) underdog. Moreover, that Red Wolves victory has triggered a negative 54-101 ATS system of mine which goes against Arkansas State this week. Take UMass. |
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09-30-23 | South Alabama +3.5 v. James Madison | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 14 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the South Alabama Jaguars + the points over James Madison. The Dukes return home following three straight road wins (including ATS wins in the last two), and have been installed as a favorite vs. the 2-2 Jaguars. We played against South Alabama last week, and got the $$$ with Central Michigan, which upset the Jags, 34-30, as a 16.5-point favorite. But off that huge upset loss, we'll take the Jaguars to bounce back in Harrisonburg on Saturday. Indeed, .500 (or better) underdogs have covered 78% since 1980 vs. conference foes, if our underdog was off an upset non-conference loss as a 16-point (or greater) favorite. That bodes well for South Alabama. As does the fact that it has covered 60% off a straight-up loss, if its opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins. Grab the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-23 | USC v. Colorado UNDER 74 | Top | 48-41 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 18 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Under in the Colorado/USC game. After scoring 45, 36 and 43 points to open its 2023 season, Colorado hit a brick wall on offense last week, and scored just 6. And its touchdown came with just 2:51 left in the game. The Buffs did give up 35 first-half points, but just 7 in the 2nd half as Oregon relaxed its offense. I expect more of the same from Colorado in this game vs. USC, as USC should break out to a healthy lead, and then take its foot off the gas in the 2nd half. Take the UNDER. |
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09-29-23 | Louisiana Tech v. UTEP -114 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -114 | 88 h 15 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners over Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs will play their 2nd straight road game after losing (but covering) at Nebraska last weekend, in a 28-14 defeat. Meanwhile, the Miners come into this game on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak following a 45-28 loss here, at home, to UNLV last Saturday. We'll take UTEP to bounce back in this game vs. the Bulldogs, as UTEP has cashed 63% over the last 39 years at home as a favorite (or PK) in conference games off a SU loss. And Louisiana Tech is 0-7-1 ATS on the road vs. conference foes, and 0-8 ATS its last eight off a point spread win. Take UTEP. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie. |
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09-29-23 | Cubs -111 v. Brewers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Braves have captured the top prize in the NL (best record) but they simply can't stop winning despite having nothing else to play for until the NLDS. They did it again on Thursday, beating the Cubs at home behind -- what else -- great pitching and timely hitting. Now the Cubs need to win more than ever as the Marlins came back to beat the Mets last night which means Chicago is currently on the outside looking in on the Wild Card race. They will face another team with nothing to play for in the Brewers tonight in Milwaukee. There's probably nobody they'd rather have on the mound to start this crucial game than veteran RH Kyle Hendricks. Despite an overall 6-8 record, the 33-year-old has logged a very solid 3.66 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 23 starts covering just under 133 innings. In 33 career regular season starts vs. the Brewers covering 188 innings, Hendricks is 10-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and he's 3-3 with a 3.03 ERA on the road this season (vs. 3-5 and 4.16 at home). Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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09-28-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -173 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees. The Blue Jays have been blanked two straight games by the Pinstripes, with Gerrit Cole throwing a complete game, 2-hit shutout last night. Toronto generally bounces back off poor offensive games, as it's 39-22 (+11.5 net games) after scoring less than 2 runs, and also 42-30 (+9.6 net games) after scoring less than 2 runs in back to back games. Chris Bassitt will toe the rubber for the Jays tonight, and he shut out the Yankees over 7 innings in his lone 2023 start vs. New York -- a 3-0 Toronto victory. Luke Weaver will get the start for New York, and he's 1-9 in his last 10 decisions on the road (dating back to 2020). This season, he's 1-4 with a 6.38 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP away from Yankee Stadium. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-27-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -101 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:07 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees. Despite having everything to play for, the Blue Jays couldn't score a run against the Yankees last night and now the AL Wild Card race is even tighter. These two will go at it again tonight in Toronto with likely AL Cy Young Gerrit Cole going to the mound for the final time this season. Toronto's Jose Berrios, on the other hand, isn't in line for a post-season award, but he has a chance to shine tonight, and be a difference-maker. With the Jays' post-season chances hanging in the balance, I look for the 29-year-old veteran RHP to turn in a quality start in what just might be the biggest game of his career. Berrios is 11-11 with a 3.58 ERA overall this season but here at Rogers Centre he is 6-5 with a 3.11 ERA in 14 starts (vs. just 5-6 and 3.97 in 17 on the road). Toronto is 40-20 after scoring less than 2 runs, including 15-6 off a shutout loss. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-23 | Astros v. Mariners -140 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Houston Astros. Houston blew out Seattle, 5-1, last night to move to 1.5 games ahead of the Mariners in the chase for the final playoff spot in the American League. Seattle will turn to RHP George Kirby tonight, as it looks to close the gap between the teams. The Mariners have been solid as a favorite of -150 (or less), as they've gone 71-44 (+15.9 net games), including 9-2 at home behind Kirby. And Kirby has been sensational vs. the powerful Astros lineup, as he has a 1.53 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his three career starts. He has faced Houston just once here, at home, and it was his best performance, as he scattered six hits over seven scoreless innings. The Mariners are a super 52-34 (+22.2 net games) after scoring less than 3 runs. Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs +5 | Top | 25-11 | Loss | -110 | 132 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles come into this Monday Night Football game with a 2-0 record after beating the Patriots and Vikings to start the season. We'll go against Philly, as undefeated teams have cashed just 39.5% as a road favorite on Monday Night Football since 1980, including 2-11 ATS vs. opponents off a straight-up and against-the-spread win. With Tampa, indeed, in off a 10-point victory over the Bears, I'll grab the points with the Buccaneers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-23 | Bears +12.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -104 | 105 h 47 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bears have started the season 0-2 SU/ATS, with an 18-point loss to Green Bay in Week 1, and a 10-point defeat last Sunday at Tampa. Meanwhile, KC is 1-1 SU/ATS as it lost to the Lions at home, but rebounded to take down the Jaguars in Jacksonville last week. I like taking underdogs in Week 3 off back to back double-digit losses, as they’ve covered 63% since 1980. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-23 | Saints +2.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 101 h 23 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Green Bay Packers. The Saints come into this week's game with one of the four best scoring defenses, along with Dallas, Baltimore and San Francisco. New Orleans has allowed just 16 ppg in its wins over Tennessee and Carolina. That bodes well for them in Week 3, as NFL teams have cashed 72.3% off a win in Week 2, if their defense was giving up less than 20 points per game, and their opponent was off a straight-up loss. Even better: New Orleans is a solid 68-49 ATS as a road underdog off an ATS loss/tie in its previous game. Take the Saints. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-23 | Bills v. Commanders +6.5 | Top | 37-3 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 21 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Buffalo Bills. The Commanders are a surprising 2-0 following wins over the Cardinals and Broncos, and have been installed as a big home underdog vs. Buffalo, which blew out the Raiders by 28 points at home last week. I'll take the home team, as winning home underdogs have gone 99-60 ATS since 1980 vs. foes off a 15-point (or greater) blowout home win. Take the Commanders. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-23 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 101 h 21 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets. The Patriots come into this divisional match-up off back to back home losses in which they were underdogs, and failed to cover the point spread. I'll take New England on the road vs. New York as NFL teams that failed to cover their first two games as underdogs have cashed 62% as favorites in Week 3. Also, the Patriots are 16-0 ATS in the regular season on the road off a straight-up home loss, when not favored by 7+ points. And the Jets are a miserable 68-120 ATS at home vs. foes that don't own a winning record. Take New England. |
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09-24-23 | Texans +10 v. Jaguars | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 101 h 21 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Jacksonville. I'm not a big fan of laying a lot of points with teams that don't have a winning record. And especially not against a winless team like Houston. Consider that .500 or worse teams are 69-109-3 ATS when laying 9 or more points to winless opposition. I’ll take the double-digits with Houston. |
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09-23-23 | James Madison v. Utah State +6.5 | Top | 45-38 | Loss | -105 | 108 h 55 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over James Madison. The Dukes come into this game off an upset win of conference rival, Troy, and are now 3-0 on the season (but 1-2 ATS). Meanwhile, Utah State is 1-2 SU, but 2-1 ATS. We played against Utah State last Friday, and easily got the $$$ when Air Force blew out the Aggies, 39-21, as a 9-point favorite. We'll take Utah State to bounce back on Saturday, as Mountain West conference teams have cashed 59.3% vs. non-conference foes off upset wins. And James Madison also falls into a negative system of mine, which is 60-104 ATS since 1980, that goes against certain teams off upset conference wins. Take Utah State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-23 | UAB v. Georgia -41.5 | Top | 21-49 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over UAB. The #1-ranked Bulldogs are 3-0 on the season, but 0-2-1 ATS in Vegas after escaping last week with a too-close-for-comfort, 24-14 win vs. South Carolina. We'll lay the points with Kirby Smart's men, as defending National Champs have covered 60.2% since 1980 as double-digit home favorites off an ATS loss. And Georgia is 35-1 SU and 27-9 ATS as a favorite of -3 (or more) points off an ATS loss, while UAB is 0-8 ATS its last eight games away from Birmingham. Take Georgia. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-23 | Ohio State v. Notre Dame +3.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 108 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Ohio State. The Irish have easily won their first three games behind the brilliant play of ex-Wake Forest QB, Sam Hartman. He's already passed for over 1000 yards, and has 13 TDs and 0 interceptions. In what will no doubt be a raucous South Bend environment, I would rather have the veteran presence of Hartman than the relative inexperience of Kyle McCord (who will be making just his 5th career start). The Irish have been installed as a home underdog vs. the Buckeyes, and we'll happily take the points, as Notre Dame is 19-8-1 ATS at home when priced from -2 to +6 points. Even better: Notre Dame plays this game with revenge from a 21-10 loss at Columbus last season. And undefeated, single-digit, revenge-minded home underdogs have cashed 58% of non-conference games since 1980. Take the Irish. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |