Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-16-23 | Knicks v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 122-144 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the New York Knicks. The Knicks and Clippers met earlier this season in the Big Apple. Los Angeles was favored, but the Knicks blew out the Clippers by 14 points. We'll take the Clippers to avenge that defeat as they've gone 74-47 ATS in the regular season when favored by 3+ points, and playing with revenge from a loss by 6+ points. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-15-23 | Rockets v. Grizzlies +3.5 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over the Houston Rockets. The Rockets and Grizzlies met two nights ago, and the Rockets won, 117-104. That game was played in Texas; tonight's game is on Beale Street, in Memphis. We'll grab the points with the Grizzlies, as they're 35-6 ATS at home in the regular season when playing an opponent off a win, if the Grizzlies had revenge from a loss earlier in the season, and weren't getting more than 9 points. |
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12-15-23 | Hawks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 125-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the Toronto Raptors. This is the 2nd of back-to-back meetings in Toronto between these teams. The Raptors won, 135-128, on Tuesday, as a 2.5-point favorite. This game is also competitively-priced with a point spread of 3 points or less. And when NBA teams have played back to back games vs. the same opponent, each with a point spread of 3 or less, the straight-up loser of the prior meeting has covered 57% of the time. And this applies to both regular season, and playoff games. Take the Hawks + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-15-23 | Pistons +16.5 v. 76ers | Top | 92-124 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Philadelphia. These two teams met two nights ago in the Motor City, and the Sixers were victorious, 129-111. We'll take the double-digits in the rematch, as road underdogs of more than 9 points have gone 39-20-2 ATS in the regular season, if they lost SU/ATS to their opponent in their previous game. Take Detroit. |
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12-15-23 | Pacers v. Wizards +9 | Top | 123-137 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards + the points over the Indiana Pacers. The Wizards have lost their last 5 game, straight-up, and their last 3 vs. the point spread. But we'll take the points with Washington, and go against an Indiana team which has covered just 27 of 77 as a winning team vs. foes off 3 ATS defeats. |
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12-14-23 | Nets v. Nuggets -9.5 | Top | 101-124 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Brooklyn. Last season, the Nuggets won 44 of 52 home games, and went 31-19-2 ATS in those games. This year, they got off to a 6-0 start, but lost their last home game, 114-106, to the Houston Rockets six days ago. They bounced back with 2 road wins, and return home tonight to get back into the win column at Pepsi Center. We'll lay the points, as Denver is 127-69 ATS at home when rested, and priced from +2.5 to -11, if it lost its previous home game straight-up. Take the Nuggets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Indiana. The Bucks play tonight's game with revenge from a loss to the Pacers last week in the In-Season Tournament. And they're 0-2 this season vs. Indiana. We'll lay the points with Milwaukee, as .523 (or better) teams have covered 62.1% when favored by 6+ points, and playing with revenge from 2 losses earlier in the season. Milwaukee's also 12-6-1 ATS the previous 19 meetings with Indiana, and 8-2 ATS the previous 10 meetings at home. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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12-13-23 | 76ers v. Pistons +12 | Top | 129-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over the Philadelphia 76ers. The Pistons have lost 20 straight games, but they fought hard to the end on Monday vs. Indiana. I look for them to be competitive tonight vs. Philly. We'll take the points, as double-digit home underdogs off a SU loss have gone 240-201-8 ATS since 1990 vs. foes off a SU win. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-11-23 | Spurs +8.5 v. Rockets | Top | 82-93 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over the Houston Rockets. The Spurs have lost 16 straight, and are 3-18 on the season. But one of their three wins was vs. this Houston club. The Rockets upset Denver, as an 8.5-point road underdog, in their previous game. Unfortunately, home teams have gone 20-39-2 ATS off an upset win as an underdog of more than 8 points over the defending NBA champs. Take San Antonio + the points. |
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12-11-23 | Wolves v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 107-121 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Pelicans were blown out, 133-89, on Thursday by the Lakers in the semi-finals of the In-Season Tournament. We'll lay the points with New Orleans, as rested teams favored by 1.5 (or more) points, off a loss by 40+ points, have gone 11-0 ATS if they had at least the two previous days off. Take New Orleans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-11-23 | Nuggets -2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 129-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta is on a six-game ATS losing streak, and has dropped 13 of its last 15 to the point spread. At home, the Hawks are a miserable 1-7-1 ATS on the season. Admittedly, Denver is on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak. But defending NBA champs have gone 25-13-1 ATS in the regular season on the road off 3 SU/ATS wins. Take the Nuggets. |
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12-08-23 | Raptors -4.5 v. Hornets | Top | 116-119 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Charlotte. The Raptors come into this game off back to back home losses to New York and Miami. And they failed to cover the spread in those two games by -14.5 and -13 points. We'll lay the points with Toronto, as it's gone 55-33 ATS following back to back point spread losses by 9 or more points, including 11-0-1 ATS on the road vs. sub-.450 opponents. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-06-23 | Nuggets v. Clippers -1 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets won the two prior meetings this season, including a 113-104 victory here at Crypto.com Arena nine days ago. We'll take Los Angeles to get revenge tonight, as the Clippers are 25-12 ATS when playing with double-revenge, if they weren't an underdog of 3+ points in the current game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-02-23 | Rockets v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Houston. The Lakers were blown out, 133-110, by Oklahoma City on Thursday. We'll lay the points with Los Angeles, as it's 43-20 ATS off a loss by 15 or more points, if it owned a winning record on the season. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-02-23 | Hawks v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 121-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Atlanta. The Hawks upset Milwaukee, 127-110, earlier this season. We'll fade the Hawks tonight, as they're 48-82 ATS on the road vs. an opponent it upset in the previous meeting that season. Take the Bucks. |
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12-02-23 | Magic v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 101-129 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Orlando. The Magic won last night, but had their eight-game point spread win streak snapped, as the Wizards covered in defeat. We'll fade Orlando on the road, in Brooklyn, as the Nets are 7-0 ATS this season when priced from -8.5 to +3 points. Take Brooklyn. |
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11-30-23 | Pistons +13.5 v. Knicks | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over the New York Knicks. The Pistons lost their 15th straight game last night, 133-107, to the Los Angeles Lakers. We'll take Detroit + the points on the road vs. the Knicks, as Detroit's played better (based on point spread differential) away from home than in front of its home faithful this season. New York is 0-8 ATS its last eight (and 13-28-1 ATS its last 42) as a favorite of more than 11 points, if New York was off a straight-up win. Take Detroit + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-29-23 | Rockets v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 124-134 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Houston Rockets. The Nuggets play tonight's game with revenge from not 1, but 2 losses earlier this season to the Rockets. But those two games were both on the road; tonight's game is at home. We'll lay the points, as Denver is 10-0 ATS when playing with revenge at home, and not favored by 9+ points. Take the Nuggets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-26-23 | Hornets +7.5 v. Magic | Top | 117-130 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets + the points over the Orlando Magic. The Hornets come into this road game off back to back wins over the Celtics and Wizards. And they're very well-rested, as they had Thursday, Friday and Saturday off. Orlando, on the other hand, will play with just 1 day of rest. We'll take Charlotte + the points, as it's cashed 61% as a road underdog when playing with 2+ more days of rest, while Orlando has covered just 38% since 1990 as a home favorite when playing with at least 2 days less of rest. Take the Hornets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-25-23 | Pelicans v. Jazz +1.5 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz over the New Orleans Pelicans. This is the first of two back-to-back games between these teams being played here, in Salt Lake City. New Orleans had to play last night (and won) vs. the Los Angeles Clippers while Utah had Friday off. We'll take the Jazz, as they're 88-55 ATS when playing with rest vs. an unrested non-division foe. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-24-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4 | Top | 98-100 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Miami. The Knicks come into this game on an extended layoff, as they haven't played since Monday (while Miami was in action on Wednesday). New York is a super 22-6 ATS when playing with an extra 2 days of rest than its opponent, provided New York was off a loss, and its opponent was off a win. The Knicks have been solid at home this season, as they've covered the point spread by an average of 4.9 ppg. We'll take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-22-23 | Mavs -2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
At 10:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over the LA Lakers. Dallas comes into tonight's game off back to back losses to Milwaukee (132-125) and Sacramento (129-113), while the Lakers have won 3 straight. We'll take Dallas to snap its losing streak tonight, as the Mavs are an awesome 150-98 ATS off a SU loss, if their opponent was off a SU win. And the Mavs are also 81-34 ATS if they were off a 14-point (or worse) defeat, and their opponent owned a .500 (or better) win percentage. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-22-23 | Kings -1.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings over New Orleans. The Pelicans routed Sacramento, 129-93, here, in New Orleans, on Monday. We'll take the revenge-minded Kings to avenge that 36-point loss, as Sacramento is 44-31 ATS on the road off a road loss. And teams playing with revenge in the regular season from a loss by more than 35 points, and also playing the 2nd of back to back games vs. that opponent, have covered 60% since 1990. Take the Kings. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-22-23 | Grizzlies +5 v. Rockets | Top | 91-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over the Houston Rockets. Houston's riding a 9-game ATS win streak. But we'll fade Houston tonight, as .500 (or worse) teams, on a 7-game (or better) ATS win streak, are a soft 59-87 ATS. Take Memphis + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-22-23 | Bulls +7 v. Thunder | Top | 102-116 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over Oklahoma City. The Thunder come into this game off a 134-91 win over Portland. And that was OKC's 5th straight win (and cover). We'll fade the Thunder tonight, as teams off 5+ wins, that scored more than 125 points in their previous game, have gone 13-40 ATS. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-22-23 | Bucks v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 116-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks are a dreadful 0-21 ATS since May 5, 2019 when they owned a win percentage of .650 (or better) and were installed as an underdog of more than 1 point. Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-22-23 | Raptors +4 v. Pacers | Top | 132-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Indiana. The Pacers exploded for 157 points last night at Atlanta, in a 5-point win over the Hawks, while Toronto lost, 126-107, at Orlando. We'll fade the Pacers tonight, and grab the points with the Raptors, as Toronto is 34-20-1 ATS off a loss by 12+ points. Take Toronto. |
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11-22-23 | Wizards +4.5 v. Hornets | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards + the points over the Charlotte Hornets. Charlotte upset Boston as a huge underdog in its last game. Off that upset win, we'll fade Charlotte at home tonight, as it's covered just 40% as a home favorite off an upset win as an underdog of more than 8 points. Take Washington. |
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11-19-23 | Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
At 9:40, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Houston Rockets. The Lakers will play this game with revenge from a 128-94 loss at Houston earlier this month. We'll lay the points as NBA teams are 49-34 ATS when favored and playing with revenge from a 34-point (or worse) defeat earlier in the season. Take the Lakers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-19-23 | Celtics v. Grizzlies +8.5 | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over Boston. The Grizzlies stormed back from a 19-point deficit last night by outscoring the San Antonio Spurs by 29 points in the 2nd half, and equaled their largest victory of the season. I like Memphis to continue that solid play tonight vs. the Celtics, as it's 103-54 ATS at home off a straight-up win, when priced from -2.5 to +8.5. Take Memphis. |
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11-19-23 | 76ers v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 121-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over the Philadelphia 76ers. The Nets were knocked out of last season's playoffs by the 76ers, and fall into my best Playoff revenge angles, with records of 30-7, 103-54, and 108-48 ATS. Even better: the Nets are 60-23 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +12, vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. Take the Nets. |
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11-15-23 | Wolves v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 115-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Minnesota. The T-Wolves played last night in San Francisco, and downed the Warriors, 104-101. We'll fade the unrested Wolves tonight vs. the rested Suns, as Phoenix is 86-47 ATS when rested, and playing an unrested foe, provided Phoenix wasn't favored by 8+ points. Take the Suns. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-15-23 | Bucks -4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 128-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Toronto. The Milwaukee Bucks have yet to cover the point spread, as they’re 0-9-1 ATS on the season after beating Chicago by 9 points, 118-109, as a 9.5-point favorite on Monday. They’re a road favorite at Toronto this evening, and I like the Bucks to break through with their first victory for their bettors for two reasons. First, NBA teams on 9-game ATS losing streaks have gone 61-31 ATS since 1990. And, second, Milwaukee plays this game with revenge from a 19-point loss here, at Toronto, on November 1st. And the Bucks are 41-22-3 ATS when playing with revenge from a 15-point or worse defeat. Lay the points with the Bucks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-14-23 | Clippers +6.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 108-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over the Denver Nuggets. Since making the trade for James Harden, the Clippers are 0-5 SU/ATS. Clearly, that wasn't what GM Trent Redden had in mind when he pulled the trigger on the trade with the 76ers. But I also don't expect the Clippers to continue their poor play. We'll grab the points tonight, as rested, road underdogs of more than 5 points, off 3 SU/ATS losses, have gone 531-434 ATS since 1990. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-12-23 | Heat v. Spurs +2 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over the Miami Heat. Miami had to play on Saturday in Atlanta, and upset the Hawks, 117-109, as an 8-point road underdog. We'll take San Antone vs. the unrested Heat, as Gregg Popovich's men are 42-21-1 ATS vs. unrested Eastern Conference foes, including 18-6-1 ATS at home. And NBA underdogs/Pk are 83-49-4 ATS off 4+ losses vs. unrested foes off 4+ wins. Take the Spurs + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-08-23 | Blazers v. Kings -8 | Top | 118-121 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over Portland. The Kings come into tonight's game off back to back blowout losses to Houston, by scores of 107-89 and 122-97. And they've lost 3 in a row, overall. We'll lay the points tonight, as home favorites of -3.5 (or more) points have covered 68.6% since 1990 off back to back road losses by 18+ points. Take the Kings. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-08-23 | Cavs -2 v. Thunder | Top | 120-128 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Oklahoma City Thunder. These two teams met less than two weeks ago, and the Thunder upset the Cavaliers, 108-105. But Darius Garland (17.7 ppg) didn't play in that game. Garland is back now, and just played 35 minutes (his highest this season) in the Cavs' 115-104 win over Golden State. On the OKC side, Lu Dort poured in 25 points in 39 minutes, but is questionable to play tonight with a hip injury. I like the Cavaliers tonight, as they're a solid 55-32 ATS off a double-digit home win. Meanwhile, the Thunder are a soft 17-32 ATS at home vs. revenge-minded foes. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-06-23 | Kings +2 v. Rockets | Top | 97-122 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Houston Rockets. These two teams met here, in Houston, on Saturday night, and the Rockets routed the Kings, 107-89, as a 2.5-point home underdog. De'Aaron Fox missed that game, and will miss his 3rd straight game tonight, as he has a sprained ankle. But tonight, it's the Kings who have been installed as the underdog, rather than the Rockets. And we'll happily take the points, and look for a bounce-back game by Sacramento tonight. The Kings 31-14-1 ATS on the road when playing with revenge. And they are also 13-5 ATS off an upset loss, including 5-0 ATS off back-to-back losses. And they're 16-6 ATS off back to back losses, generally. That bodes well for Sacramento. As does the fact that Houston is 22-44-2 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes. And it is also 2-14-1 ATS its last 17 (and 18-43-1 ATS its last 62) vs. foes off back to back losses. And the Rockets are 1-12 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss. Grab the points with the Kings. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-05-23 | Grizzlies -2.5 v. Blazers | Top | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Portland Trail Blazers. Memphis gets another bite at the apple tonight. It will be playing the 2nd of back-to-back road games at Portland. Friday's game looked to be going well, as Memphis led, 100-90 with just over 3 minutes left. But it collapsed, and fell by 2 points in overtime. The Grizzlies fall into a 123-75 ATS regular season "right-back revenge" system of mine, which plays on certain teams in the 2nd of back-to-back meetings that lost SU in the first meeting. Additionally, Portland is 1-17 SU and 3-14-1 ATS its last 18 as a home underdog (and 20-40-2 ATS its last 62). Take the Grizzlies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-05-23 | Warriors v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the Golden State Warriors. Cleveland comes into today's game off a 121-116 upset loss at Indiana, while Golden State won (but failed to cover) at Oklahoma City on Friday, 141-139. Golden State has been anything but "Road Warriors" the last 4 seasons, as they've gone 54-83-3 ATS on the road, including 5-17 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss. We'll fade the Warriors today. |
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11-05-23 | Raptors -3 v. Spurs | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs. The Raptors come into this game off a 114-99 blowout loss to Philly, while the Spurs enter off back-to-back upset wins over the Phoenix Suns. San Antone is now 3-2 on the season, while Toronto is 2-4. I'll lay the points with the Raptors, as they're 32-19 ATS off a blowout loss by 12 (or more) points, including 5-0 ATS their last five. And San Antonio is an ugly 47-88-1 ATS vs. foes off an ATS loss, if the Spurs are not off an ATS win, and not playing with revenge. Take Toronto. |
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11-04-23 | Celtics -9 v. Nets | Top | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Brooklyn Nets. Boston is looking like the best team in the league, and it ripped the nets for 155 points on Wednesday. Boston had Thursday and Friday off to rest and prepare for this division game against Brooklyn, which played last night (and won) in Chicago. We'll take Boston, as the Celtics have gone 74-39 ATS off a 20-point (or greater) home win, including 16-4 ATS vs. unrested foes. Take the Celtics. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-04-23 | Lakers v. Magic +3.5 | Top | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. Both teams enter this game with identical 3-2 records. Orlando will be returning home after a 4-game road trip (which included a 106-103 loss at the Lakers), while Los Angeles will be hitting the road after its back-to-back home wins over Orlando and the Clippers. We'll fade Los Angeles, as it's 20-49 ATS as a favorite (or PK) on the road off back to back home wins, including 11-36 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes. Grab the points with the Magic. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-04-23 | Suns +3.5 v. 76ers | Top | 100-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over Philadelphia. The Suns lost not once, but twice at home to Victor Wembanyama's Spurs (as favorites of -7 and -10.5). And in the 2nd match-up, on Thursday, Wemby got a career-high 38 points! I expect Coach Frank Vogel to get his troops to come out with energy and focus this afternoon, as they won't want to lose three in a row this early in the season. For technical support, consider that NBA road underdogs have covered 73% since 1990 off back to back upset losses, if they were favored by at least 7 points in those 2 games, and were now playing an opponent off back to back wins. Take Phoenix plus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-03-23 | Mavs v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Dallas. The Nuggies were smashed, 110-89, by the T-Wolves two nights ago, and will look to bounce back tonight against the undefeated Mavericks. We'll lay the points, as defending champs have covered 64% at home the last 34 years, if they were off a loss by more than 20 points, and were now matched up against an opponent off a win. Take Denver. |
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11-03-23 | Grizzlies -2 v. Blazers | Top | 113-115 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Portland Trail Blazers. This is the first of two back-to-back games here, in the Rose City, between these Western Conference clubs. The Blazers come into tonight's game off back to back upset wins at Toronto and Detroit. But those two upsets have triggered a negative 177-269-7 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off back to back upsets. We'll go against a Portland team which is a putrid 0-17 straight-up, and 2-14-1 ATS its last 17 as a home dog (and 19-40-2 ATS its last 61). Take Memphis minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-03-23 | Knicks v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 105-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over New York. The Bucks were throttled, 130-111, by Toronto on Wednesday, as a 4-point favorite. We'll take Giannis Antetokounmpo & Co. to bounce back tonight, as they've gone 25-8-2 ATS as a favorite of 13 or less points (or PK) following a game where they failed to cover the spread by 20+ points. Take Milwaukee. |
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11-02-23 | Spurs v. Suns -7.5 | Top | 132-121 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over San Antone. We played on the Spurs two nights ago, and got the $$$ when San Antonio won outright, 115-114, as a 7-point underdog. Phoenix did, however, lead by 20 points, but slowly blew that lead, and finally saw the Spurs take their first lead of the game with 1.2 seconds left after Keldon Johnson stole the ball from Kevin Durant, and went in for a lay-up. Kevin Durant will no doubt want to make amends for his game-losing turnover, and the good news for the Suns is they get to play the same team tonight, in the second of back-to-back meetings in Phoenix. I expect Frank Vogel's men to not take their feet off the gas, and for them to absolutely throttle the Spurs. The Suns are 26-10 ATS as a favorite off an upset loss, including 9-1 ATS when playing with revenge. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-02-23 | Raptors +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Philadelphia. These two Atlantic Division rivals are meeting for the 2nd time in five nights. We played on the 76ers in the first meeting, and were rewarded with a 114-107 victory (as a 4-point road favorite). The Sixers are at home for this game, and we'll grab the points with the Raptors. Toronto is 17-10-1 ATS as a road underdog with revenge, while Philly is a horrible 11-21 ATS as a home favorite vs. a revenge-minded foe. And the Raptors are 31-22 ATS the last 53 meetings. Take Toronto as a big underdog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-01-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Golden State. These two teams met last Friday, and the Warriors upended Sacramento, 122-114. We'll take the Kings in this rematch, as Sacto is 38-19-1 ATS on the road, including 13-3-1 ATS when playing with revenge. And Golden State is 1-11-1 ATS its last 13 (and 32-77-3 ATS its last 112) when it was off a point spread win, and playing a revenge-minded foe. Grab the points with Sacramento. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-01-23 | Grizzlies +3 v. Jazz | Top | 109-133 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over the Utah Jazz. The Grizzlies come into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses. The good news for Memphis is that it's an awesome 26-7-1 ATS off back to back SU/ATS losses when it wasn't getting 4.5 (or more) points. And Utah is an ugly 18-41-2 ATS when priced from -6 to +2 points. Take the Grizzlies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-01-23 | Cavs +6.5 v. Knicks | Top | 95-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over New York. This is the 2nd of back-to-back games between these teams. New York won Round 1 in Cleveland last night, 109-91. We'll take the underdog Cavaliers in the rematch, as Cleveland falls into a 489-350 ATS revenge system of mine. Even better: Cleveland is 0-4 ATS to start the season. And at Game 5 forward, road teams have covered 76% of non-division games since 1990, if they were winless ATS, and off a straight-up loss. Grab the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-31-23 | Spurs +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 115-114 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
At 10 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Phoenix. We played against Gregg Popovich's crew on Sunday, and were rewarded by a 40-point Clippers blowout. But off that horrible game, we'll back the Silver and Black tonight in the desert. Phoenix will be without two of its best players, as Bradley Beal and Devin Booker will be in street clothes. And the Spurs are 101-58-2 under Popovich in the regular season off a loss by more than 10 points, when their opponent was off an ATS win. Additionally, Phoenix is an ugly 26-56 ATS at home off a win by more than 17 points, if it was playing a rested opponent. Take the Spurs. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-30-23 | Nets v. Hornets | Top | 133-121 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets over the Charlotte Hornets. We played on the Nets +6.5 over Dallas on Friday, as our NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month and were rewarded with a wire-to-wire cover. Brooklyn is 0-2 straight-up, but 2-0 "in Vegas." And we'll take Brooklyn once again in this road game at Charlotte, as rested teams, with a .200 (or worse) win percentage, have covered 69% since 1990 if they were 100% Perfect ATS on the season. Take Brooklyn. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-30-23 | Bulls +3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers have scored 125+ points in each of their two games to start the season. We'll fade Indiana, as undefeated NBA teams have gone 7-29-1 ATS after scoring more than 115 points in each of their 2 previous games, provided they weren't getting 4+ points in their current game. And if our 'play-against' team was matched up against a sub-.400 foe, then our 29-7 stat zooms to 12-0. Take Chicago + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-23 | Spurs v. Clippers -9 | Top | 83-123 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over San Antone. We played against the Clippers on Friday, and got the $$$ with the Utah Jazz, who pulled off the 120-118 upset of L.A. The Clippers will welcome Victor Wembanyama & Co. to the West Coast for their first road game of the season. And the Spurs have been dreadful away from the Alamo City, as they've gone 11-27 ATS, including 0-12 ATS their last 12 when priced from +5 to +9.5 points! Meanwhile, the Clips are a solid 38-22 ATS as a favorite off an upset loss. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-23 | Blazers +9.5 v. 76ers | Top | 98-126 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Philadelphia. We played on Philly last night at Toronto, and were rewarded with a 114-107 win (and cover). But we'll switch gears, and play against the unrested Sixers tonight. Philly is a poor 34-57-2 ATS when playing at home without rest following a road game the day before, if its opponent was rested. Grab the points with the Trail Blazers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-23 | Hawks +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 127-110 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks won their opener, 118-117, over the Philadelphia 76ers, and Damian Lillard had a smashing debut, as he scored 39 points. But Milwaukee failed to cover the spread in that game. I don't think they'll cover tonight, either, as Atlanta falls into some of my very best NBA systems, with records of 140-84, 95-28, and 89-32. The Hawks are 0-2 ATS to start the season, and they're 19-5 ATS off back to back ATS losses, including 6-0 ATS when getting more than 5 points. And Milwaukee is 14-27 ATS when favored by 7 or more points at home, off a straight-up win. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-23 | 76ers -3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over the Toronto Raptors. In its opening game, Philly took the Milwaukee Bucks down to the wire on Thursday, but narrowly lost, 118-117. Tonight, Nick Nurse's men will face the coach's former team, Toronto. The Raptors also narrowly lost, 104-103, in overtime, at Chicago, last night. And that lowered the Raptors' season record to 1-1. The Raptors are a soft 10-17 ATS as home underdogs, while Philly is 14-7 ATS as a road favorite (including 5-0-1 ATS its last 6). And rested road favorites have cashed 64% since 1990 vs. unrested division rivals, if our road favorite owned a worse record. Take Philly. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-23 | Bulls -1 v. Pistons | Top | 102-118 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls over the Detroit Pistons. Detroit pulled off an upset win last night at Charlotte, 111-99. But off that blowout win, we'll fade Monty Williams' men tonight. For technical support, consider that Detroit is a disastrous 0-16 ATS at home off a win by 7+ points! Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-27-23 | Clippers v. Jazz +3.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers. Utah was blown out, 130-114, by the Sacramento Kings, on Wednesday. We'll take the Jazz to bounce back, as they're 42-20 ATS as home underdogs, and 11-4 ATS at home vs. Los Angeles. Meanwhile, the Clippers are a wallet-busting 1-9-1 ATS on the road off a SU/ATS win, if they were playing a sub-.400 opponent off a loss. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-27-23 | Nets +6.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Dallas. This will be the first time these teams have faced off since Kyrie Irving was traded by the Nets to the Mavericks. And I expect a hotly-contested game which could go down to the wire. Indeed, the last five meetings between these clubs have been decided by 2, 4, 2, 3 and 4 points. I expect a similar game tonight, and love the underdog Nets. Dallas did open its season with a 126-119 win vs. the San Antonio Spurs. But it allowed a bad Spurs team to shoot 51.7% from the floor, and was only able to overtake San Antonio by ending the game with an 11-2 run. Dallas was horrible as a favorite last season, and is 15-36-2 ATS its last 53 in that point spread role, including 3-20 ATS off a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Nets are 21-12-1 ATS as a road underdog. Grab the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-27-23 | Raptors v. Bulls -2 | Top | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over Toronto. These two teams met in last season's play-in round, and the Bulls upset Toronto, 109-105. Unfortunately, the Bulls succumbed to Miami in the next game, and didn't qualify for the Playoffs. In Chicago's first game this season, it was blown out, 124-104, by Oklahoma City here, at home. The Bulls will try to redeem themselves tonight, and I expect a much better effort, as home teams off 20-point (or worse) losses in their home openers have covered 65% since 2000. Take Chicago minus the points. |
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10-27-23 | Pistons +4 v. Hornets | Top | 111-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets upset Atlanta, 116-110, as a home underdog on Tuesday, while Detroit lost a squeaker at Miami, 103-102, as a 9.5-point road underdog. Detroit will be an improved team this season, with newly-hired coach Monty Williams at the helm, and Cade Cunningham back from injury. Indeed, Cunningham poured in 30 points vs. the Heat. Charlotte is a poor 27-39 ATS at home off a home win. Take Detroit + the points. |
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10-27-23 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +5.5 | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets opened their season with an impressive victory vs. the Lakers on Tuesday, and will look for a 2nd straight win tonight, on Beale Street. But I like Memphis to pull the upset, as the Grizzlies are 50-24 ATS at home vs. foes off a win, if Memphis wasn't favored by 2+ points. Even worse for Denver: it's 63-96 ATS on the road off a point spread win. And the Nuggets are a dismal 0-5 ATS their last 5, and 1-9 ATS their last 10 at Memphis. Take the Grizzlies + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Denver Nuggets. We played on Denver in Games 1 + 3 in this series (and passed Game 2). But we will take Miami in Game 4, as Denver's a horrible road team off an ATS win. And especially against foes that failed to cover the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game, as Denver's 13-44-1 ATS its last 58. Yikes! Moreover, Miami is a solid 38-12 straight-up, and 31-16-3 ATS at home as a winning team off a straight-up home defeat. And it's 56-34 ATS in the Playoffs when it didn't lead in a series. Grab the points with Jimmy Butler & Co. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 67 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Miami Heat. Kudos to Miami, which knocked out the last two Eastern Conference Champs (Milwaukee, Boston). Unfortunately, knocking out Denver will be most difficult. The Nuggets have home court advantage, and are 42-7 at home this season. They're also 30-17-2 ATS at Ball Arena, and have covered the spread by an average of 3.34 ppg. We'll fade Miami in this Game 1, as Eastern Conference teams are 1-13 straight-up, and 2-12 ATS in Game 1 of the NBA Finals when playing away from home. And Denver is 23-11 SU and 25-9 ATS vs. Miami in the last 34 meetings, including 5-0 SU/ATS the last five here, in Denver. And Denver won their last five home games vs. the Heat by an average of 15 ppg. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Miami Heat. The Celtics are down 3-games-to-1 in this Best-of-7 series, so tonight's game (much like Tuesday's game) is a 'must-win' for Boston. The Heat were in a similar position vs. Milwaukee, and they upset the Bucks, 128-126, in overtime, as a 13.5-point underdog. But in 7-game series with a 2-2-1-1-1 format, home teams have typically done well in Game 5 when down 3-games-to-1, as they've cashed 61.7% since 1990. And, regardless of series format, or venue, teams down 3-1 have cashed 56.5%, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were a 2-seed, and favored by 4+ points. Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-23-23 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Miami. The Celtics are down 3-games-to-none, but I don't believe they'll go down without a fight. Indeed, before Boston's 128-102 loss to Miami on Sunday, it had only lost by 20+ points five times in the last two seasons. And the Celtics bounced back from each of those blowout losses to go 5-0 SU/ATS in their next game (winning by an average of 13.2 ppg). Boston is also 9-1 ATS in the Playoffs when priced from -3.5 to +7.5 if it was off back to back SU/ATS losses, and not up in a Playoff series. And it's 20-4 ATS away from home in the Playoffs if it didn't lead in the series, and failed to cover the spread by more than 7 points in its previous game. Take the Celtics. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-21-23 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Miami Heat. The Celts have their proverbial back against the wall after losing both games at home to start this series. We'll fade Miami as a home underdog, as home dogs have covered just 33% in the Playoffs since 1991 off back to back road underdog (or PK'em) wins. Even better: Game 3 home teams have gone just 25-44 SU and 28-41 ATS off an upset win as a 5.5-point (or greater) underdog in Game 2. Finally, the Celtics are an awesome 15-1-1 ATS as a favorite of -2 (or more) points off back to back upset defeats. And Miami is 17-37 ATS at home vs. a revenge-minded foe off a straight-up loss. Lay the points. |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Denver. It's been a case of "close, but no cigar" for the Los Angeles Lakers in this series. They're down 2 games to none but haven't lost against the point spread in either of the first two games. We'll lay the points with the Purple and Gold, and go against the #1-seeded Nuggets. For technical support, consider that NBA #1 seeds have covered just 30 of 80 when up 2-games-to-none, and not laying more than 4 points. And LeBron James' teams have gone 56-29 ATS in the Playoffs when favored by 2 or more points, if they did not have a series lead. Lay the points with Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Miami. The Celts lost here, at home, 123-116, on Wednesday to Erik Spoelstra's Heat. And that was Boston's 3rd straight defeat at the hands of Miami. We'll take Boston to bounce back from that loss, as it's an awesome 62-29 ATS when playing with double-revenge, if it failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in the prior meeting. And it's 71-41-2 ATS off a home loss, if favored vs. a foe off a win. Finally, Boston's a reliable 10-1 ATS its last 11 off an upset playoff defeat. Lay the points with Jayson Tatum & Co. in Game 2. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-11-23 | Celtics -1.5 v. 76ers | Top | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 38 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Philadelphia. The Celtics were upset at home, 115-103, as an 8-point home favorite on Tuesday. We'll take Boston to bounce back, as it's 34-10 ATS following an upset loss to a division rival, if Boston was favored by 4+ points in that defeat. And the Celtics are also 19-3 ATS away from home in the Playoffs, if they didn't lead in the series, and were off a home game where they failed to cover the spread by more than 7 points. Take Boston. |
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -6 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 43 h 46 m | Show |
At 10:00 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Los Angeles. The defending champs find themselves down 3-games-to-1 in this 'must-win' Game 5. We'll lay the points with the Warriors, as NBA defending champs have covered 61% since 1990 in Games 5, 6 or 7 of a playoff series when facing elimination. Even better: the Warriors have covered 72.7% in the NBA Playoffs since 1990 when playing with double-revenge, while the Lakers are 0-8 straight-up, and 1-6-1 ATS in the Playoffs since 1990 when installed as an underdog of +5 (or more) points vs. a double-revenge-minded foe. Lay the points with Golden State. |
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05-10-23 | Heat v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 40 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over the Miami Heat. Erik Spoelstra's men covered the point spread for the 7th straight time on Monday, when they defeated New York, 109-101, as a 4.5-point favorite. But we'll go against Miami on Wednesday, as NBA Underdogs of +2 (or more) points, with a win percentage less than .666, have gone 37-73-3 ATS after covering the spread in 7+ games. Lay the points with New York. |
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05-08-23 | Warriors +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. Los Angeles won Game 3 here, at Crypto.com Arena, 127-97. We cashed the Under in that game, but will focus on the Side in this Game 4. We'll grab the points with the Warriors, and go against a Lakers team which is an awful 14-51 ATS as a home favorite off a win, when playing a revenge-minded foe it defeated by more than 7 points in the previous meeting. Additionally, the Warriors are 58-39 ATS off a SU/ATS loss when playing with revenge. And, finally, NBA road teams have cashed 73 percent since 1990 after losing a playoff game in which they scored less than 99, and surrendered more than 121. Take the Warriors + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-07-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +3 | Top | 115-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Boston. The Celtics blew out Philly for the 2nd straight game on Friday, as they won 114-102, to take a 2-games-to-1 series lead. We'll fade the Celtics in Game 4, as they're 0-8 ATS on the road in the playoffs off back to back SU/ATS wins, if they won their previous game by more than 11 points. Even better: home teams off a loss have cashed 65.4% since 1990 in the 2nd of back to back games vs the same foe, if each game was competitively-priced with a point spread of 3 points or less. Finally, Philly is 12-0 ATS its last 12 off back to back losses, if it wasn't favored by 8+ points. Take the 76ers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets took care of business at home, as they won both games by double-digits, including a 97-87 win on Monday, in Game 2. We'll fade Denver tonight on the road, as it's 27-58-1 ATS on the road off a win by more than eight points. Additionally, home teams have gone 22-7 ATS when playing with at least 3 days' of rest off a road playoff loss. Finally, #1-seeded teams up 2-games-to-none have covered just nine of 28 games as an underdog vs. teams seeded #4 (or worse). Lay the points with Phoenix. |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. LeBron James & Co. upset the Warriors on Tuesday. We'll take Golden State to avenge that defeat, as the Lakers are 22-49 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe it upset in the previous meeting. And LeBron James' teams have gone 0-6 ATS in the Playoffs in his career off an upset win, if playing a sub-.640 foe. Finally, the Warriors are 61-38 ATS vs. division rivals, if the Warriors were off a SU loss. Lay the points with Golden State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -10 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Philadelphia. The 76ers are on a 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS streak, including an upset win over Boston in Game 1 on Monday. We'll fade Philly tonight, as NBA underdogs of +8 (or more) points have gone 12-40 ATS vs. foes off a game where they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points. Even worse for the Sixers: they're 18-36 ATS as road underdogs of more than 4 points vs. .501 (or better) foes. And, finally, the Celtics are 60-29 ATS when playing with double revenge, if they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in the prior meeting. Lay the points with Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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05-02-23 | Heat v. Knicks -6.5 | Top | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Miami. The Heat took Game 1, 108-101. We'll lay the points with the Knicks in Game 2, as they're 81-38 ATS off a SU/ATS loss, if playing with revenge from a home loss vs. a .500 (or better) foe. Even better: teams (like Miami) have covered just 23 of 65 away from home in the post-season after covering the spread in each of their three previous games by more than 7 points. And #5-seeded teams (like New York) have gone 69-31-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. Take the Knicks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 32 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over the Miami Heat. The Knicks took 3 of the 4 games vs. the Heat this season, and covered the point spread in both home games. And here at Madison Square Garden, the Knicks are 11-4 ATS their last 15, including a perfect 9-0 ATS when not favored by 8 or more points. Meanwhile, the Heat are 7-14 ATS their last 21 road games. And underdogs of more than 3 points are 0-9 ATS their last nine away from home off 3 covers by 7+ points. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Atlanta. The Hawks shocked the Celtics in Boston to win Game 5, and close the gap in this series to 3-2. Unfortunately for Atlanta, NBA home teams off a win in Game 5, but down 3-games-to-2, have gone 1-12 ATS in Game 6 when not favored by 2 or more points. And the Celtics are 18-7 ATS in the Playoffs off an upset defeat, while the Hawks are 1-13 ATS in the Playoffs off an upset win. Lay the points with Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11 | Top | 128-126 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 40 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Miami. The Bucks have fallen in a 3-1 hole after dropping both games in Miami. Still, the #1-seeded Bucks should have reason for optimism. They had the #1 record in the league this season, and are 33-10 SU at home, with a 24-17-2 ATS record, including 11-2 SU and 9-3-1 ATS off a straight-up loss. Even better, the Bucks are 53-22 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 6-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite. Finally, in match-ups between .528 (or better) teams, underdogs off back to back upset home wins have gone 2-30 SU and 5-27 ATS. Take Milwaukee to blow out the Heat. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-26-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 99-116 | Win | 100 | 37 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. The Grizzlies fell, 117-111, in overtime on Monday. And they fell behind by 2 games in this 1st Round Playoff series. We'll lay the points with Memphis, as #2-seeded teams have gone 17-6 ATS at home when down at least two games in a Playoff series. And the Grizz are 9-2-1 ATS when playing with double-revenge. Take Memphis minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | Top | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 7 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the New York Knicks. The Cavs did not have a good trip to the Big Apple, as they lost Games 3 + 4 to the Knicks to fall behind 3-games-to-1 in this series. We'll take the Cavaliers to rebound on Wednesday, as they're 12-0 SU/ATS at home when priced from -3 to -12 off a loss if matched up against an opponent off a win. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 1-9 ATS on the road vs. non-division foes off back to back losses. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-25-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets -9.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Minnesota. The Nuggets come into this game off a road loss in Game #4 to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Still, they lead this series 3 games to 1, and will look to close out their division rival tonight. Denver is 36-7 SU and 27-15-1 ATS at home this season, and have covered the spread by an average of 3.62 ppg. Notably, against .500 (or better) teams, the Nuggets are riding a 19-2 SU and 18-3 ATS run at home! Meanwhile, the T-Wolves are a poor 0-18 ATS their last 18 on the road vs. .500 (or better) teams following a T-Wolves cover by more than 8 points. Lay the points with Denver. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-24-23 | Bucks -4 v. Heat | Top | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Miami Heat. The Bucks lost Game 3, 121-99, which puts their back against the wall in this Game 4. The last thing Milwaukee wants to do is fall behind 3-games-to-1 in this series. The good news for Mike Budenholzer's men is that they're 6-1 ATS their last seven when trailing in a playoff series. And they're 17-5 ATS on the road when playing with revenge from a 15-point (or worse) defeat. Finally, since 1990, NBA teams have cashed 76.4% after scoring less than 100 points in an upset Playoff loss, if they surrendered 115+ points in that previous game. Take Milwaukee minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. We played against the Lakers in Game 2, and got the $$$ with the Grizzlies in a blowout win. We'll switch gears for this Game 3 and take the homestanding Lakers, who are 14-6 SU/ATS off a straight-up loss since December 27. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 10-19 SU and 8-20-1 ATS on the road vs. revenge-minded foes, including 0-12-1 ATS as an underdog! Lay the points with the Lakers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-21-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +2.5 | Top | 120-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over the Denver Nuggets. The T-Wolves are down 2-games-to-none to Denver. But the Nuggets are now on the road, where they've NOT been an elite team over the years. Indeed, the Nuggets are a horrid 11-33 ATS on the road off back to back ATS losses, including 0-10 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back SU/ATS losses. This season, Denver was under water away from home, with a 19-22 SU/ATS record, including 9-15 ATS as a road favorite. The T-Wolves are 11-3 ATS their last 14 as a home underdog. Grab the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -7 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 66 h 25 m | Show |
At 10 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Sacramento. We played on the Kings in Game 1, and passed Game 2. But we will lay the points with the Warriors in this Game 3, as they're back in San Francisco. This season, the Warriors have been dominant at home, and dreadful on the road, so it's no surprise they're down 2-games-to-0 with the first two games played in Sacramento. But now, Golden State is back home, where it's 33-8 straight-up, and 27-13-1 ATS this season, including 10-2 ATS vs. .529 (or better) foes, and 15-1 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. And the Warriors are 45-23-1 ATS in the Playoffs when playing with revenge. Take Golden State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-20-23 | 76ers v. Nets +5 | Top | 102-97 | Push | 0 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over the Philly 76ers. Jacque Vaughn's men were blown out of Games 1 + 2. But we'll grab the points with the home puppy in Game 3, as the 76ers are a woeful 12-27-1 ATS when favored by 10 or less points (or PK) on the road off back to back wins, when they've owned a win percentage of .625 (or greater). Meanwhile, the Nets are a solid 60-29 ATS off back to back SU/ATS losses, when facing a foe off a 9-point (or greater) win, if the Nets weren't favored by more than 2 points. Brooklyn also falls into 65-38, 92-55 and 161-106 ATS systems of mine that play on certain playoff teams off blowout losses. Grab the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-19-23 | Heat v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 122-138 | Win | 100 | 60 h 6 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Miami Heat. Milwaukee suffered a loss in Game 1, as Miami went into Fiserv Forum, and upset the Bucks, 130-117. Trailing in a playoff series isn't unfamiliar territory for Milwaukee, so I don't expect that it will be discouraged. Indeed, the Bucks are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS in the Playoffs when they were trailing or tied in the series. Even better: off an upset playoff loss, the Bucks have gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. Meanwhile, Miami is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS off an upset playoff win. Finally, the Bucks are a wallet-fattening 52-22-1 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 21-4 ATS when playing with rest off a home loss. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -1 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 59 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies over the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers upset the Grizzlies on Sunday, 128-112, as a 5.5-point underdog, behind 29 points from Rui Hachimura, and 23 from Austin Reaves. We'll take the Grizzlies on Wednesday to level the series at 1 game apiece, as NBA teams off playoff losses by more than 15 points that also failed to cover the spread by more than 20 in that defeat, have gone 106-76-1 ATS since 1991. Even better: Memphis is 8-2-1 ATS when playing with double-revenge, while the Lakers are a poor 5-24-1 ATS on the road when playing a foe they upset in the season's previous meeting. Take the Grizzlies in Game #2. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-18-23 | Clippers v. Suns -7.5 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 40 h 26 m | Show |
At 10 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Los Angeles. Kawhi Leonard led the Clips to victory in Game 1 with 38 points, as Los Angeles upset Phoenix, 115-110. We'll take the Suns to bounce back on Tuesday, as they're 62-30-1 ATS when favored, and playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the season. And if it's a playoff game, then our 62-30 stat zooms to 11-1 ATS. Lay the points with the Suns. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-18-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 90-107 | Win | 100 | 62 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over the New York Knicks. New York upset the Cavaliers in Game 1, 101-97. And that was Cleveland's 2nd straight upset defeat, overall. We'll take the Cavs to bounce back in Game 2, as they've cashed 61.7% since 1990 off back to back upset losses, including 79% when priced as a favorite of less than 8 points. Additionally, since 1990, favorites of less than 12 points have cashed 60% in the playoffs off back to back upset losses. Lay the points with Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-16-23 | Heat v. Bucks -9 | Top | 130-117 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 35 m | Show |
At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Miami. In the pandemic-impacted 2020 season, the Bucks were the number 1 seed, but were bounced out of the playoffs by the then-No. 5 seeded Heat. However, since that series loss, Milwaukee has dominated the Heat here, at home, as the Bucks are 7-0 straight-up, and 5-2 ATS, with an average point spread differential of 10.3 ppg. The Bucks come into Sunday's Game 1 vs. Miami off back to back losses in what were (admittedly) meaningless games. This game, of course, is anything but meaningless. And we'll lay the points with Milwaukee, as it's 52-21-1 ATS at home off back to back losses. Take the Bucks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings | Top | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings over the Golden State Warriors. This season, the Kings have covered 3 of 4 vs. Golden State. Coincidentally, these two teams met two games ago, and the Warriors won, 119-97, for their only point spread win of the season vs. Sacramento. Notwithstanding that loss, since 2017, Sacramento is a super 18-8 ATS vs. the Warriors, including 10-2 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. And Golden State is a horrid 32-72 ATS off a point spread win when playing a revenge-minded foe. Finally, I just can't get behind the Warriors on the road tonight. For the season, the Warriors are a woeful 11-30 straight-up, and 12-28-1 ATS away from San Francisco, including 2-14-1 ATS when the point spread was less than five points. Take the Kings. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-14-23 | Bulls v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 37 h 32 m | Show |
At 7 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the Chicago Bulls. The Heat were upset here, at home, by Atlanta in its initial Play-in round game. We'll take Miami to bounce back, as it's 66-34-3 ATS as a winning team when rested, and favored by 4+ points off an upset loss. Additionally, in the Playoffs or Play-in round, the Heat are 14-0 ATS their last 14 off an upset loss when facing a sub-.700 foe which won its previous game. Lay the points with Miami. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-09-23 | Pelicans v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 108-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over New Orleans. This is a huge game for both teams, as it will greatly impact their seeding in the Western conference. We'll side with the homestanding T-Wolves, as New Orleans is a wallet-breaking 8-24-1 ATS as an underdog of +3 (or more) points, including 1-13 ATS off a straight-up win. Take the T-Wolves minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |