Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-30-23 | Toledo v. Wyoming -3.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
Craig Bohl and Tucker Gleason. That's the simple answer as to why I strongly favor Wyoming to beat Toledo by more than a field goal in this Arizona Bowl.
The highly-popular and successful Bohl is retiring after 42 years coaching, including the last 10 years at Wyoming. The Cowboys are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl games during the past seven years. Wyoming played in this same Arizona Bowl last season. Gleason is the backup replacement for Toledo's superstar QB, Dequan Finn. Finn is transferring to Baylor after accounting for 3,220 yards and 29 touchdowns passing and rushing. The Rockets also will be without Peny Boone, their top running back who gained 1,400 rushing and scored 15 touchdowns. He entered the transfer portal. Gleason threw just 21 passes this season. He has completed less than 51 percent of his passes during his college career. Wyoming has a top-50 defense, is well-coached, has good special teams and has a reliable QB in Andrew Peasley, who threw for 1,823 yards and 20 touchdowns with five interceptions. Toledo has failed to cover in its last five bowl games under Jason Candle. |
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12-29-23 | Memphis +11 v. Iowa State | Top | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
This isn't a great Iowa State team. The Cyclones are 7-5. The best teams they beat were Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Memphis can hang with Iowa State,especially having home field advantage, which they do with the game taking place at the Liberty Bowl in Memphis. The Tigers are 9-3 and have plenty of bowl experience. Their only defeats came to the two best teams in the American Athletic Conference, SMU and Tulane, and to Missouri. The Tigers lost those games by an average of seven points. Memphis hasn't lost a game by more than 10 points all season. The Tigers are the seventh-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 39.7 points. Seth Henigan has completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,519 yards with a 28-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Iowa State may win, but it won't be by double-digits.
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12-28-23 | NC State +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 57 m | Show |
North Carolina State has plenty of momentum entering this bowl game. I'm going to ride that here as Kansas State was hit hard by players transferring and opting out. I see a wrong favorite here. |
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12-26-23 | Bowling Green +3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Just because Minnesota is a Big Ten team and Bowling Green is from the Mid-American Conference doesn't mean the Gophers should automatically be the favorite.
But that's what the oddsmaker has done in this Quick Lane Bowl, which is being held at Ford Field in Detroit. Bowling Green is the better team. I'll certainly take points to back that opinion. Minnesota shouldn't even be in a bowl game. The Gophers are 5-7. They are the only non-.500 team to earn a bowl invite. It happened because there were not enough teams that finished 6-6 or better to fill all the bowl slots. So the committee turned to a Big Ten team. Aside from Michigan and Ohio State, it was a down year in the Big Ten. Minnesota is average defensively and horrible on offense. The Gophers' best offensive player might be running back Darius Taylor and he's questionable. It was a terrible year in the Big Ten for quarterbacks. One of the lower tier QB's was Minnesota's Athan Kaliakmanis. He started every game. But Kaliakmanis won't play here because he entered the transfer portal. How good can backup Cole Kramer be if he couldn't dislodge Kaliakmanis at any point this season? I like Bowling Green QB Connor Bazelak much better. He played his best ball down the stretch with a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last five games. Bowling Green concluded the regular season winning and covering five of its last six games. Minnesota, by contrast, finished 0-4 SU and ATS. The Falcons have proved they can step up when playing a Power Five team. They upset Georgia Tech, which beat Central Florida, 30-17, in the Gasparilla Bowl this past Friday. Bowling Green also played Michigan and covered in a 31-6 road loss. Minnesota also went up against Michigan. The Gophers were hammered by the Wolverines at home, 52-10. Bowling Green and Minnesota played each other two years ago in Minneapolis. The Falcons won, 14-10. The Falcons are used to this venue. They played in the Quick Lane Bowl last year. The Falcons heavily recruit in Detroit. So this game means a lot to them not just in terms of the prestige of beating a Big Ten team, but also in recruiting. Minnesota, on the other hand, can't be too excited about this opponent nor the venue. The Gophers weren't even thinking about a bowl game when the regular season concluded. |
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12-02-23 | Michigan v. Iowa +22.5 | Top | 26-0 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 37 m | Show |
This is the Big Ten Conference title game. But nothing was bigger for Michigan than beating Ohio State last week. So this matchup is actually a letdown for the Wolverines. |
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11-25-23 | Jacksonville State -2.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
Fading New Mexico State in an obvious letdown spot is the major part of my handicap. The Aggies not only have punched their ticket to face Liberty in the Conference USA championship game, but could also have trouble getting up for this game after what happened last week. |
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11-24-23 | Air Force v. Boise State -6 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 54 m | Show |
It has been a tumultuous season for Boise State to say the least, culminating in the firing of head coach Andy Avalos. But with their season on the line, the Broncos responded under popular interim coach Spencer Danielson rallying from a 10-0 deficit to beat Utah State, 45-10, as 4 1/2-point road favorites last week.
This victory was significant because it moved the Broncos' record to 6-5 keeping them alive in the Mountain West Conference title race and boosting their chances of earning a bowl bid for the 26th straight year. A key for the Broncos was having their two best running backs, George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, healthy and ready to play at the same time. The Boise State players thought so highly of Danielson they presented him the game ball from that victory. It was Danielson's first game as head coach of the Broncos. Air Force, on the other hand, is heading in the opposite direction as down as it has been all season. The Falcons opened 8-0. But the roof has caved in on them this month. It started three weeks ago with a stunning, 23-3, loss to rival Army as 18-point favorites. The Falcons then lost, 27-13, on the road to Hawaii as 20 1/2-point favorites followed by a 31-27 home loss to UNLV. Air Force was favored by a field goal in that game and blew a 24-7 lead. The Falcons' confidence is shaky at best, while Boise State has all the momentum plus a very strong home field edge at Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos have defeated Air Force in five of the last six seasons, including 19-14 last season as 2-point road favorites. |
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11-11-23 | Texas -10.5 v. TCU | Top | 29-26 | Loss | -120 | 43 h 11 m | Show |
Texas holds numerous edges against TCU. The Longhorns' offense still kept humming the past two games under backup QB Maalik Murphy producing 68 points and more than 800 yards of offense in beating Kansas State and BYU. But Murphy committed four turnovers. The Longhorns survived a scare from Kansas State last week before prevailing in overtime. |
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11-08-23 | Akron v. Miami-OH -17.5 | Top | 0-19 | Win | 100 | 32 h 34 m | Show |
Miami of Ohio has the second-best overall record in the Mid-American Conference behind 8-1 Toledo. The 7-2 RedHawks' only losses have been to the Miami Hurricanes opening week and Toledo. |
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11-04-23 | LSU v. Alabama -3 | Top | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 66 h 54 m | Show |
Defense trumps offense. That's what it comes down to in this matchup, especially with Alabama in a revenge spot. |
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11-01-23 | Ball State v. Bowling Green -5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
I find excellent value getting Bowling Green at home laying less than a touchdown to Ball State. |
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10-28-23 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +12 | Top | 42-46 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
We saw North Carolina implode last season losing its last four games after a 9-1 start. The pattern continues this season. The Tar Heels were upset, 31-27, by visiting Virginia as a 24-point favorite last week. That halted the Tar Heels' six-game win streak to start the season and raises serious concerns about North Carolina. |
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10-21-23 | Minnesota +4 v. Iowa | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 42 h 36 m | Show |
This is the lowest football total of the season. So taking more than a field goal where points are going to be at an absolute premium certainly makes sense. |
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10-05-23 | Sam Houston State v. Liberty -19 | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -113 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
To say Sam Houston State is struggling transitioning into the FCS would be an understatement. The Bearkats are 0-5 and have by far the worst offense in the nation averaging 9.5 points and 219.8 yards a game. |
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10-04-23 | Jacksonville State v. Middle Tennessee State -3 | Top | 45-30 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 60 m | Show |
Jacksonville State is 4-1 while Middle Tennessee State is 1-4. Yet the Blue Raiders are the favorites. |
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09-16-23 | Wyoming +30 v. Texas | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 56 h 58 m | Show |
Kudos to Texas for upsetting Alabama on the road last week. That victory vaulted the Longhorns into a top-five rating in the AP poll for the first time since 2010. It also puts the Longhorns in danger of letting down against Wyoming, especially since they have a bigger game on deck when they play at Baylor next week to begin Big 12 Conference play. Texas has great skill position talent, but Wyoming isn't getting enough respect. The Cowboys are a solid Mountain West Conference program under Craig Bohl. They've gone bowling five of the past six years, not including the 2020 shortened Covid season. Wyoming is 2-0. The Cowboys are 8-2-1 ATS the last two plus seasons when taking a field goal or more. They've already scored one major upset this year defeating Texas Tech, 35-33 in overtime, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Cowboys are not flashy. But they have a solid defense, can run the ball effectively and have a competent QB in Andrew Peasley. |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
Thanks to Mike Elko, Duke is more than a basketball school when it comes to sports. Elko has turned the Blue Devils around. Duke went 9-4 in Elko's first season last year after going a combined 5-18 the previous two seasons. The Blue Devils capped off their magical season beating UCF, 30-13, in the Military Bowl. This will be one of the Blue Devil's biggest home football games ever having the national spotlight on them for Labor Day. Clemson hasn't been the dominant power of a few seasons ago. Sure the Tigers have star power. But Duke is no one-year fluke. The Blue Devils have star power, too, including QB Riley Leonard. The dual threat QB accounted for 33 TD's and more than 3,600 yards of total offense last season. Duke retained nearly 100 percent of its offensive production from last season and some very good defensive players, including lineman DeWayne Carter and safety Brandon Johnson. The Blue Devils ranked 28th in rush defense in 2022 and 37th in scoring defense holding foes to 22 points a game. |
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09-02-23 | North Carolina v. South Carolina +2.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
South Carolina covered four of its last five regular-season games last year as an underdog, including upsetting then No. 5 Tennessee and No. 7 Clemson straight-up. So the Gamecocks are more than capable of beating North Carolina straight-up as a small 'dog. There's been a lot of preseason publicity about North Carolina QB Drake Maye. He could be a top-three Heisman Trophy contender. The strength of South Carolina's defense is its secondary, though. The Gamecocks have three starters back from a secondary that led the SEC in interceptions last season. South Carolina also has a very good QB, too, in Shane Rattler. He's a gunslinger and facing a Tar Heels secondary that ranked 111th in pass defense. The Gamecocks also get the special teams checkmark thanks to coach Shane Beamer, who like his father, Frank, has outstanding special teams. |
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09-01-23 | Miami-OH +18 v. Miami-FL | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 266 h 14 m | Show |
I'm not impressed with Miami coach Mario Cristobal. The Hurricanes covered exactly one game last year during his first season as head coach with them. Cristobal is back, but Miami is breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The Hurricanes also have a much bigger game on deck when they host Texas A&M in Week 2. I doubt they'll want to show much in this game. The RedHawks' offense should be improved with a healthy Brett Gabbert at quarterback. He played only four games last year. |
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08-31-23 | Nebraska +7 v. Minnesota | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
Coaching, not talent, has been Nebraska's downfall during the last five years of the ill-fated Scott Frost era. Finally the Cornhuskers brought in a legitimate college football coach in Matt Rhule. Nebraska went 4-8 last year with five of those defeats coming by an average of four points. So now with a huge coaching upgrade and the superior quarterback, I see the Cornhuskers hanging in - if not pulling the outright upset - against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are a good, but not great team. They also lost a number of key players, including career rushing leader Mo Ibrahim and QB Tanner Morgan, who was a four-year starter. I wasn't a fan of Morgan and am even less enthralled with Minnesota's new starting QB, Athan Kaliakmanis. He has a big arm, but lacks accuracy. He had a 3-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year and a completion percentage of only 54.1 percent. Minnesota is a grind-out type of team. Not the kind that can easily cover big point spreads. The Gophers beat Nebraska, 20-13, on the road last season and Nebraska should be better this season. Jeff Sims gives Nebraska an experienced athletic dual-threat at quarterback. Sims compiled more than 5,600 yards of total offense in three seasons at Georgia Tech. Sims now gets to play behind an experienced offensive line with better skill-position talent. So look for a close game here. |
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08-26-23 | Hawaii v. Vanderbilt -17 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 170 h 55 m | Show |
Vanderbilt buried Hawaii, 63-10, in last year's season-opener in Hawaii. No, the Commodores aren't likely to win by 53 points again. But they should be able to cover this margin at home. The Commodores went 5-7 last season, while posting SEC upset victories against Florida and Kentucky during the last three weeks of the season. Vanderbilt has a number of good returning veterans on offense. Hawaii had one of the worst defenses in the country in 2022 giving up 34.7 points - ranking 124th - and were 115th in total defense. After averaging fewer than 20 points a game last season, Hawaii is going to a run-and-shoot offense in Timmy Chang's second year as the Rainbow Warriors' head coach. It's going to take time for this new offense to click. Vanderbilt holds edges all across the board. |
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01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia -12.5 | Top | 7-65 | Win | 100 | 118 h 56 m | Show |
Unbeaten Georgia had its scare in its last game, edging Ohio State by one point in the Peach Bowl on New Year's Day. The Bulldogs are 28-1 the past two seasons. During this two-year span, they have won by two touchdowns or more 86 percent of the time. TCU has been a great story getting to the national title game after being projected as a middle-to-bottom tier Big 12 team. But the Horned Frogs are not in Georgia's class. That's obvious by this point spread. But are Bulldogs two touchdowns better than the Horned Frogs? Yes, they are. Georgia is elite on both sides of the ball. They also have far bigger game experience than the Horned Frogs. The Bulldogs had one of greatest college defenses of all time last season. This season they ranked No. 2 in scoring defense holding foes to 12.8 points. They had the nation's No. 2 run defense and ranked ninth in total defense. TCU can't match that. The Horned Frogs ranked 74th in total defense, 83rd in pass defense and 57th in scoring defense. They don't have NFL-caliber talent at many defensive spots like Georgia does. Georgia QB Stetson Bennett is going to produce lots of points against TCU. Bennett really came into his own this season ranking in the top-10 in passing yards and completion percentage. Max Duggan has been outstanding for TCU. But this is the toughest defense by far that he's seen. The Horned Frogs may not have their star running back, Kendre Miller, who is questionable for the game. The Bulldogs defeated Oregon by 46 points, South Carolina by 41, Florida by 22, Tennessee by 14, Mississippi State by 26 and LSU by 20. Those were some serious whippings. I see Georgia's class difference showing up here. |
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12-30-22 | Wyoming +2.5 v. Ohio | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
I see the wrong team being favored here. Both teams are off bad losses in their last game. But there's a difference. Ohio lost 17-7 to Toledo in the Mid-American Conference championship game. The Bobcats displayed a lack of offense minus Kurtis Rourke, their star quarterback. They could manage only seven points and 262 yards in the MAC title game without Rourke, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Rourke was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year and easily Ohio's most important player. Wyoming let up after clinching a bowl spot losing its last two games to Boise State by three points and getting blown out by Fresno State in its last game. I'm expecting a much better performance from the Cowboys, who have won their last three bowl games and are well-coached under Craig Bohl. The Cowboys beat Kent State, another MAC school, in their bowl game last season, 52-38. Ohio is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. Wyoming has the superior defense giving up 23.4 points a game. Ohio gives up 28.4 points. The Bobcats rank 113th in total defense and 130th in pass defense. |
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12-27-22 | East Carolina -7 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 53-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
When last spotted, Coastal Carolina was losing 45-26 to Troy in the Sun Belt Conference title game. The Chanticleers were hammered by James Madison, 47-7, in their previous game before losing to Troy. That put Coastal Carolina's ATS record to 2-8 against opponents with a winning record. Coastal Carolina will have an interim coach, too, for this game. Its head coach, Jamey Chadwell, left Coastal Carolina on Dec. 4 to become head coach at Liberty. The Chanticleers also will be without its best offensive lineman, Willie Lampkin, and top pass rusher, Josiah Stewart. East Carolina played a tougher schedule than Coastal Carolina and has a more explosive offense behind five-year veteran Horton Ahlers. The Pirates rank 24th in total yards. They've committed only two turnovers! Coastal Carolina ranks 101st in scoring defense allowing 30.1 points, which is what East Carolina averages per game. The Chanticleers are 124th in pass defense. The Pirates are 13-5-1 ATS against above .500 teams. They have the more stable coaching staff, too, under Mike Houston. |
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12-22-22 | Air Force +4 v. Baylor | Top | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 42 h 46 m | Show |
This bowl game is a real letdown for Baylor, which beat Mississippi in the Sugar Bowl last season and had high expectations this season. Those expectations were not met as the Bears finished just 6-6. Air Force is one of the most unique and difficult teams to defend and practice against because the Falcons run the triple-option. The Falcons are the No. 1 rushing team in the nation. They have the third-leading rusher in the country, fullback Brad Roberts, and quarterback Haaziq Daniels, who has accounted for 20 touchdowns while averaging more than 20 yards per completion. Air Force is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference games because the Falcons are so unique and hard to prepare against. Baylor is just OK stopping the run. That's not good enough especially when combined with a perceived lack of motivation. Baylor averages 33.6 points a game. I just don't see the Bears having the ball that much. Air Force led the nation in time of possession at 36:22. No team limited the opposition to fewer plays than Air Force. Look for the Falcons to control the ball, eat clock keeping Baylor's offense from getting into any kind of rhythm. |
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12-16-22 | Troy +1.5 v. UTSA | Top | 18-12 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
Both teams are 11-2, are conference champions and each own 10-game win streaks. Troy won the Sun Belt. Texas San Antonio captured Conference USA. The difference is Troy continues to be underrated by the linesmaker. The Trojans are 10-3 ATS. I believe they should be favored in this Cure Bowl matchup in Orlando, Fla. Troy has the necessary defense to slow down the Roadrunners, who average 38.7 points. The Trojans rank eighth in scoring defense giving up 17.5 points per game and are 19th in total defense giving up 325.3 yards a game. The Trojans recorded 39 sacks, bad news for San Antonio's sixth-year QB Frank Harris. Linebacker Carlton Martial was the best defensive player in the Sun Belt. The Roadrunners don't have nearly as good a defense as Troy, nor do they have the bowl pedigree having lost each of the past two seasons in bowl games. Troy has won its past four bowl games. The Trojans got their offense in gear behind QB Gunnar Watson and running back KImani Vidal. The Trojans averaged 42.3 points in their last three games. The Roadrunners rank 90th in total defense and 101st in pass defense. |
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12-03-22 | Clemson v. North Carolina +7.5 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 59 m | Show |
The combination of North Carolina star QB Drake Maye and Clemson being eliminated from the College Football Playoffs helps put me on the underdog Tar Heels. North Carolina isn't going to be involved in the College Football Playoffs either, but the Tar Heels knew that. They've been pointing to this matchup for weeks knowing they had qualified for this title game. I think that factored in the Tar Heels not playing well in their last two games, upset losses to Georgia Tech and NC State after having won nine of their first 10 games. There was no incentive for them. There will here. There's a huge gap in quarterbacks. Clemson's D.J. Uiagalelei has been a major disappointment never adequately replacing Trevor Lawrence. Maye, on the other hand, has put up superstar numbers - 3,847 passing yards and 35 TD passes along with six rushing TD's. He leads the nation in total offense with 4,476 yards. Uiagalelei was terrible last season and he has been inconsistent this season even getting benched in spots. Notre Dame defeated Clemson by 21 points. North Carolina fell to the Irish by 13 points. That was the Tar Heels' only defeat of more than four points. |
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11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
Missouri is tough at home going 4-2 with the losses coming to Georgia and Kentucky by four points each. That's the closest any team has come to beating undefeated Georgia this season. The Tigers can secure bowl eligibility with a victory. It's also a revenge spot for the Tigers. Arkansas won last year's game, 34-17. Previous to that, though, the Tigers had won five in a row in the series. Arkansas gained its bowl eligibility last week upsetting Mississippi, 42-27. The Razorbacks could suffer a letdown after that great win. This is just Arkansas' fourth true road game. The Razorbacks could be minus their second-leading tackler, linebacker Bumper Pool. He's dealing with hip and back injuries. |
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11-19-22 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5 | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
Mississippi's hopes of winning the SEC West Division ended last week with a narrow loss to Alabama. Following this game, the Rebels meet in-state conference rival Mississippi State in their annual Egg Bowl game. So it's a difficult situational spot for the Rebels going on the road to face Arkansas. The 5-5 Razorbacks have all kinds of incentive. Not only do they have revenge for a wild 52-51 loss last year to Mississippi State, but they need a sixth win to be bowl eligible. Ole Miss has failed to cover during its last four visits to Arkansas. Arkansas held LSU to 284 total yards in a 13-10 home loss last week. Now the Razorbacks get back QB KJ Jefferson, who didn't play against LSU. Jefferson is back for this game giving the Razorbacks a dynamic dual threat quarterback weapon. Jefferson has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,981 yards with a 17-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also rushed for 425 yards with six TD's on the ground. |
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11-12-22 | TCU +7.5 v. Texas | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
Texas Christian is ranked fourth in the country in the latest The Associated Press Top 25 poll. Texas is ranked 18th. Yet the Longhorns are solid favorites. Usually it's the oddsmaker who has the correct power rankings, not the Top 25 voters. This time, though, it's the Top 25 poll that is accurate about these teams. TCU is the better team. The Horned Frogs are 9-0, including 6-0 in the Big 12. They just defeated Texas Tech by 10 points. Texas is 6-3 with two of its defeats coming to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, two teams that TCU defeated. Texas lacks TCU's consistency and polish. The Horned Frogs have already beaten four ranked opponents. Only Tennessee has knocked off more with five. The Horned Frogs have dominated the Longhorns, too, going 7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS against them since becoming a Big 12 member 10 years ago. They are 4-1 versus the Longhorns in Austin. |
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11-05-22 | Texas Tech v. TCU -9.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 25 m | Show |
TCU is the third-highest scoring team in the nation and fourth in total yards. The Horned Frogs have scored at least 38 points in every one of their games going 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS. Texas Tech is 89th in scoring defense giving up 29.3 points a game. I don't see the Red Raiders, who have been horrible on the road, staying within single digits of the unbeaten Horned Frogs. Texas Tech just got slaughtered, 45-17, by Baylor last week and that was at home. The Red Raiders have played three road games - North Carolina State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. They lost all three of those contests by 10 or more points. Max Duggan is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation accounting for 26 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Texas Tech couldn't stop Baylor, which averages nearly a touchdown less per game than TCU. I don't see the Red Raiders slowing down Duggan and a TCU attack that averages 48.7 points a game at home. |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina is 7-1. That's the best record in the Sun Belt Conference. But the Chanticleers aren't even favored at home here against Appalachian State. Did the oddsmaker make a mistake with a wrong favorite? Nope. Appalachian State is better than Coastal Carolina on both sides of the ball. Coastal Carolina has built its record feasting on easy opponents. This is the first time all season the Chanticleers are underdogs. They were upset by Old Dominion, 49-21, when they last played at home. What does that tell you? The Mountaineers rank in the top-25 in scoring offense and total offense. Senior quarterback Chase Brice has accounted for 25 TD's with four interceptions. The Mountaineers have three good running backs headed by Camerun Peoples. It's a red flag for the Chanticleers that they were gouged for 323 yards and four TD's on the ground by Old Dominion. The Chanticleers are even worse in pass defense ranking 116th. Coastal Carolina has good skill position players, but they aren't as good as Appalachian State's top weapons. The Chanticleers aren't as battle tested either as Appalachian State. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover any of its past four home games. The oddsmaker has it right. The Mountaineers are the superior team and they will prove it here. |
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10-29-22 | San Diego State +9 v. Fresno State | Top | 28-32 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
Fresno State star QB Jake Haener still could be out. That would mean another start for Logan Fife, who has been picked off six times filling in for Haener. But even if Haener can play, he's going to be rusty having last played Sept. 17. So I disagree with how high the Bulldogs are favored here. This should be a very close game with first place in the Mountain West Conference West Division at stake. Fresno State is 3-4 on the season, which includes a stunning road loss to Connecticut. The Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home contests. San Diego State is 26-10-1 (72 percent) versus below .500 opponents. The Aztecs have held three of their last four foes to 14 points or fewer. San Diego State has the superior special teams play, too, with an excellent kicker/punter in Jack Browning. ESPN ranks the Aztecs No. 1 in special teams efficiency. |
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10-29-22 | Rutgers +14.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Greg Schiano has done an outstanding job with Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have a winning record through seven games for the first time in eight years and are a bowl contender. The Scarlet Knights have been at their point spread-best on the road going 31-14, including 10-3-1 during their last 14 away games. Minnesota has gotten progressively worse after a 4-0 start. The Gophers have lost and failed to cover in their last three games, losing all three by 10 or more points. The problem for Minnesota is scoring. The Gophers are averaging fewer than 14 points during their last three games. Tanner Morgan is one of the worst QB's in the Big Ten and he's questionable with a concussion. The Gophers rely on a strong ground attack headed by Mohamed Ibrahim. Rutgers, however, ranks sixth against the run and eighth in defensive total yards. The Scarlet Knights also are tough on special teams, too, leading the Big Ten in blocked kicks with four. |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU -3 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
Very tough scheduling spot for East Carolina here. The Pirates just upset American Athletic Conference rival Central Florida this past Saturday - their best win of the season - and now have to travel cross-country going into high altitude to Provo, Utah on a short week to take on BYU in a non-conference game. The Pirates are going to encounter an angry BYU squad that has lost three in a row, falling to Liberty, Arkansas and Notre Dame after a 4-1 start. This is a huge game for the independent Cougars, who would hurt their bowl opportunities with a loss here. East Carolina has a much bigger matchup in its next game facing Cincinnati, who is unbeaten in the AAC. BYU and East Carolina share a common opponent, South Florida. The Cougars smashed the Bulls, 50-21. BYU led 38-0 in the second quarter while outgaining South Florida, 575-279. East Carolina beat South Florida, 48-28, at neutral site Boca Raton due Hurricane Ian and gave up 455 yards to the Bulls. |
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10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
Seems hard to believe after suffering three blowout losses, but Georgia Tech can put itself into bowl consideration. The Yellow Jackets have turned their season around after firing Geoff Collins. They are 2-0 since Brent Key was named interim coach, upsetting Pittsburgh as a 21 1/2-point road 'dog and Duke as a 3 1/2-point home dog. It's not a coincidence. Key has fixed special teams issues and changed morale. The Yellow Jackets have their confidence up after winning consecutive games for the first time since 2018 when Paul Johnson was coach. I expect Georgia Tech to keep its momentum hosting Virginia, which is the only winless team in the ACC having lost all three of its conference games. The Cavaliers are struggling under first-year head coach Tony Elliott. The Cavaliers haven't scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent. Brennan Armstrong is a decent QB, but he doesn't have much skill position help and he's playing behind a rebuilt offensive line. "We are still a team that needs a lot of work fundamentally,'' Elliott was quoted as saying. That kind of quote is not very confidence-inspiring especially coming six games into Virginia's season. |
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10-07-22 | Colorado State v. Nevada -3.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
Nevada is 2-3. But the Wolf Pack aren't nearly as bad as Colorado State, which is 0-4 and has been outscored by 121 points. This is going to be an intense game with Nevada drawing its biggest home crowd of the season. The reason being that Colorado State's head coach is Jay Norvell. He's in his first year after coaching Nevada the previous five seasons. Many of Nevada's players were recruited by Norvell, who left in December and took with him to Colorado State 11 Wolf Pack players, five recruits and several assistant coaches. So far it has been a disaster for the Rams. They rank last in total offense and are in the bottom-10 in numerous other offensive categories, including rushing, third-down conversion rate, red zone offense, scoring defense and several special teams categories. The Rams are in the argument for worst team in the country. Yes, the Rams played Michigan and Washington State. But they also lost to Middle Tennessee State by 15 points and fell to FCS Sacramento State by 31 points. |
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10-01-22 | East Carolina -8.5 v. South Florida | Top | 48-28 | Win | 100 | 41 h 5 m | Show |
This matchup is below-the-radar. Because if it wasn't, East Carolina would be a much larger favorite. South Florida lost its home field advantage when the game was moved from Orlando to Boca Raton because of Hurricane Ian. The Bulls were 2-10 last season. They are terrible again this season going 0-3 against Division I teams. The Bulls were slaughtered, 41-3, by Louisville last week. They were out-gained by 384 yards in that game. East Carolina is 2-2, but has outgained its opponent in every game. The Pirates nearly upset North Carolina State as a 12-point 'dog, losing 21-20 on a missed extra point. The Pirates have covered nine of their last 12 games. They have a balanced attack and a veteran QB in Holton Ahlers, one of the better QB's in the American Athletic Conference. The Pirates beat South Florida, 29-14, last season. Expect the same this time around, too. |
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09-24-22 | USC -5.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 5 m | Show |
After six years of avoiding Southern Cal because Clay Helton was its coach, it's safe again to back the Trojans. Their new coach, offensive guru Lincoln Riley, has turned around the Trojans. Riley brought QB Caleb Williams with him from Oklahoma. Williams is one of the top QB's in the country. He's thrown for 874 yards and eight TD's this season for the 3-0 Trojans. Williams' top target is Jordan Addison, one of the best wide receivers in the nation. Oregon State also is 3-0. The Beavers are getting strong QB play, too, from Chase Nolan. He ranks 13th in passer ratings. But there's a class and athlete difference between these two schools. Helton couldn't take advantage of that. The Beavers upset USC as a double-digit road 'dog last season. That was Oregon State's first win in Los Angeles in 61 years. So the Trojans also have revenge motivation to go with an edge in athleticism along with an elite coach and quarterback. The Trojans have taken much better care of the ball under Riley, not nearly as careless. They are plus 10 in takeaways/giveaways. That's the best ratio in the nation. USC has yet to turn the ball over. |
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09-17-22 | BYU v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
There are two ways of looking at Georgia's 49-3 thrashing of Oregon in Atlanta two weeks ago. Either the defending national champion and top-ranked Bulldogs are that good, or Oregon isn't nearly as dangerous as cracked up to be. I go with the first. Look for the Ducks to get redemption on national TV in the confines of Autzen Stadium where they have won 20 straight and 29 consecutive non-conference games. BYU is ranked 12th in the nation following its exciting 26-20 overtime home win against Baylor last Saturday. But the Cougars are nowhere near the level of Georgia. They also are likely to be without their two best wide receivers again, Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua. Oregon is tough in the trenches - one of the few schools to return all five of its starting offensive linemen - and has physical linebackers. BYU averaged only 2.4 yards rushing against Baylor. But the Ducks' major strengths are speed and skill position depth. These are major edges against BYU and will prove the difference. Oregon got some of its confidence back rolling past Eastern Washington - a decent FCS school - 70-14, covering easily as 27-point home 'dogs last week. Oregon QB Bo Nix always has been better at home where he has a 28-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to just 12-to-12 on the road. Nix should have ample time to spot his speedy downfield targets given the experience of his offensive line. |
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09-10-22 | South Alabama v. Central Michigan -4.5 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
Don't be fooled by the Week 1 outcomes when accessing these two teams in this matchup. South Alabama rolled past Nicholls State, an FCS school, 48-7, last week while Central Michigan lost 58-44 to Oklahoma State. The Jaguars are a middle-of-the-road Sun Belt Conference team. They have failed to cover in their last six road games. Central Michigan covered against Oklahoma State, who is ranked 11th in the country. Chippewas QB Daniel Richardson completed 36 of 49 passes for 424 yards and four TD's with no interceptions against the Cowboys. The Chippewas came on strong last season winning seven of their last nine games, including upsetting Washington State in a bowl game. They are on a 6-0 covering run. So give me a solid MAC team against this Sun Belt foe. |
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09-09-22 | Louisville v. Central Florida -5.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
Louisville and its quarterback, Malik Cunningham, are not who we thought they would be. The Cardinals are much worse than imagined and Cunningham, hindered by a bad offensive line and devoid of talented wide receivers, shouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath with his Louisville predecessor, Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals were buried, 31-7, by underdog Syracuse in their opener last Saturday. The Orange have an excellent running back, but little else offensively. Yet they produced 449 yards of offense against Louisville with Orange QB Garrett Shrader racking up 332 yards of offense with his arm and legs. The Cardinals gave up an average of more than 400 yards per game last season and don't appear improved. Now Louisville has to go back on the road to face a better QB in Central Florida's John Rhys Plumlee, a transfer from Mississippi. Plumlee rolled up 407 yards of offense in leading the Knights to a 56-10 win against South Carolina State in their opener eight days ago. Louisville is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 road games. Central Florida's defensive strength is its secondary. So I don't see the overrated Cunningham faring much better while the Knights behind Plumlee can take advantage of the Cardinals' porous defense. |
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09-03-22 | Louisville -4 v. Syracuse | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
This is far more of a mismatch than this point spread indicates. Louisville has defeated Syracuse the past three times by an average of 30 points, including out-scoring the Orange, 71-3, during the last two meetings. Louisville owns a monster edge at QB with Malik Cunningham, the top rushing QB in the ACC. Cunningham is protected by a very underrated offensive line. Syracuse is forced to be one-dimensional on the ground with Sean Tucker because its QB, Garret Shrader, is terrible. Shrader is very inaccurate and he's not helped by a weak group of receivers. Tucker is excellent, but the Cardinals will be stacking the line against him. The Orange haven't been able to turn the corner under Dino Babers with just 11 victories during the past three years. |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
I see a class difference of more than a touchdown here. Current form counts for something, too. The Badgers went 7-1 down the stretch. They led the nation in total defense and were sixth in scoring defense surrendering 16.4 points per game. The Sun Devils are 96th in passing offense. Their QB, Jayden Daniels, hasn't lived up to lofty expectations. The game is in Las Vegas. But Arizona State won't have a crowd advantage because the Badgers travel extremely well with tremendous fan support. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
Opt-outs and transfers can greatly impact a bowl game. We saw it happen with Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl on Monday when Western Michigan blew out the Wolf Pack, 52-24. Nevada was missing its star QB plus all of its best receivers. Oregon is down around 30 scholarship players, including star defensive lineman Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks did not look good down the stretch either losing a pair of games to Utah by the combined score of 76-17. Oklahoma is a top-12 team in scoring and yards. I much prefer Sooners freshman QB Caleb Williams to the Ducks' inconsistent signal-caller, Anthony Brown. Williams took the starting job away from Spencer Rattler, who was considered a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender before the season. Williams threw for 1,670 yards with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The game is being played in San Antonio, Texas. That's a plus for Oklahoma, which is the closer school and should have a higher fan turnout. |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan -7 v. Nevada | Top | 52-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Nevada faced a situational challenge for this Quick Lane Bowl with the game being played in Detroit. Another break for Western Michigan is the 8 a.m. West Coast start time. Nevada is used to playing its games late in the afternoon, or at night. But these situational disadvantages are nothing for the Wolf Pack compared to them losing nearly 20 players to opt outs or transfers. The list of those out for Nevada, include their star QB, Carson Strong, star tight end, Cole Turner, along with their three best wide receivers and two starting offensive linemen. The Wolf Pack have nothing left of their passing attack facing a Western Michigan defense that ranked in the top 30 in total defense. Nevada doesn't have a reliable ground attack to fall back on either since it averaged fewer than three yards per carry. The Broncos have a balanced offense that ranked 15th in the nation in total yards. Kaleb Eleby is one of the better QB's in the MAC and Skyy Moore was one of the top wide receivers in the conference.
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12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State -11 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 142 h 14 m | Show |
This line originally was set too low because Fresno State was going to be without its coach, Kalen DeBoer, and star QB, Jake Haener. DeBoer is headed to Washington to take over the Huskies' program. But Haener isn't going with him as originally thought. Haener has decided to stay at Fresno State and not transfer after the Bulldogs named highly-respected QB guru Jeff Tedford as their new head coach replacing DeBoer. The Bulldogs are far more talented than UTEP, strong on both sides of the ball. Talent-wise, the Bulldogs are easily two TD's better than the Miners. Motivation is a key. UTEP will have it playing in-state and not having been to a bowl since 2014. Fresno State went 9-3. The Bulldogs were hoping to land a bigger bowl spot. But now that Tedford is their coach, I believe the Bulldogs will produce a strong effort as they have many returning starters. They won't want to embarrass interim coach Les Marks knowing Tedford will be closely following things. So that motivation angle is heavily reduced. Fresno State also has more bowl experience. Fresno State has a balanced attack with several good running backs. Haener is one of the better QB's on the West Coast. He passed for 3,810 yards and 32 TD passes. He has a pro caliber wideout in Jaylen Cropper. Haener's passing efficiency mark of 158.1 was the best in the Mountain West Conference and 15th best in the nation. The Miners have little backdoor ability if they should fall behind, which is highly likely. |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army -7 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -118 | 90 h 35 m | Show |
There doesn't figure to be many points scored in this matchup and what few points are likely to be scored by Army. The Black Knights are better than Navy on both sides of the ball. Army ranks 20th in scoring and gives up the 16th-fewest yards per game. The Black Knights are the second-best running team in the nation averaging 301.2 yards. They are No. 1 in average time of possession. They've converted on close to 49 percent of their third down plays and 71 percent on fourth down. Navy has a decent run defense. But the Midshipmen have no offense ranking 115th in scoring at 20.4 points a game, 126th in total yards and last in passing yards. They've also turned the ball over 31 times, which is the fifth-highest mark in the country. Army shut out Navy last season, 15-0. The Black Knights are 8-3 with a four-game win streak. They've beaten Navy in four of the past five seasons. Jeff Monken has been Army's coach for eight seasons. This is one of his strongest Army teams. This is one of Ken Niumatalolo's weaker Navy teams with a 3-8 record. Spirits will be high, but I see Army grinding out a double-digit victory with Navy unable to put up enough points to keep this close. |
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12-04-21 | Georgia v. Alabama +6.5 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 39 h 24 m | Show |
It has been six years since Alabama last was an underdog. I understand why Georgia is favored here. But these teams are much closer than what the market perceives. The Crimson Tide, however, have faced the more difficult schedule. While the Bulldogs drew Vanderbilt, Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Charleston Southern, Alabama had to play LSU, Mississippi and Texas A&M. Yes, Alabama had some close calls. Yet the Crimson Tide still lost only one game going 11-1. They know how to win and certainly are battle-tested. They also desperately need to win this game while Georgia doesn't. If the Crimson Tide loses their season is done. Georgia can take a loss and still would make the College Football Playoffs. I'm also attracted to getting this many points with the superior quarterback. Alabama gets that important check mark with Bryce Young. |
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11-27-21 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +13 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
Syracuse is a very live underdog here especially given the circumstances. The Orange need a win to become bowl eligible. This is a very big deal to them since they've only been to one bowl game since 2013. Pittsburgh would like to win just from a rivalry standpoint, but the Panthers' incentive isn't nearly as great as Syracuse's. That's because the Panthers already have clinched the ACC Coastal Division and will be playing in the ACC title game next week regardless of this outcome. Pittsburgh probably doesn't want to show too much here and may even rest some starters during the game not wanting to risk injury. The Orange is 3-3 at home with two of those defeats coming by just a field goal. Syracuse has a top runner, Sean Tucker, who ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing. The Panthers' weakness is pass defense. So the Orange should be able to balance their attack. The Orange have the defensive ability to bother Kenny Pickett with 36 sacks and 78 tackles for lost yards. The Orange also have the No. 3 pass defense in the ACC. |
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11-20-21 | Minnesota -7 v. Indiana | Top | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
Cheap price to lay with Minnesota against an Indiana team that has lost six in a row. The Hooisers hit rock bottom last week falling, 38-3, to Rutgers. Injuries have taken away the Hooisers' explosiveness. They are down to third-string QB freshman Donaven McCulley. Discounting a 35-point performance against Maryland, Indiana is averaging a meager 6.4 points in its last five games. The Hooisers have been held to seven or fewer points in four of their past six games. Minnesota won't be taking the Hooisers lightly being a game behind Iowa and Wisconsin in the Big Ten West Division. The Gophers are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road with their lone away defeat coming to Iowa last week by five points. The Gophers outgained the Hawkeyes and had 11 more first downs. Indiana ranks 106th in scoring defense giving up an average of 32 points. Given their lack of firepower and a defense that has worn down allowing 39.7 points in its last four games it's not difficult to see the Gophers covering a touchdown spread. |
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11-19-21 | San Diego State -10.5 v. UNLV | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
These two teams are far apart from what this point spread may indicate. UNLV has a horrible defense and can't pass the ball. The Rebels are highly reliant on running back Charles Williams. The Aztecs have the fourth-best run defense in the country. The Aztecs are in must-win mode, too, needing to win this game and their regular-season finale to capture the West Division of the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State buried UNLV, 34-6, last season. The Aztecs won't be taking the Rebels lightly, however. That's because UNLV has won two in a row after opening the season with eight straight losses. Note, though, the Rebels' victories are against New Mexico and Hawaii. The combined record of those two teams is 2-10. Before beating New Mexico and Hawaii, UNLV lost, 51-20, to Nevada. San Diego State defeated Nevada, 23-21, last week. The Rebels have permitted at least 35 points in five of their games. They rank 105th in scoring defense. San Diego State has one of the best running backs in the conference, Greg Bell, and upgraded at quarterback with the switch to Lucas Johnson four games ago. Punter Matt Araiza is a huge weapon for the Aztecs. He's on pace to set the single-season college mark averaging 52.2 yards per punt. UNLV ranks 119th in total yards and 113th in scoring. The Rebels may not reach 10 points considering they aren't likely to ever have good field position. The Aztecs have held six of their 10 foes to 14 or fewer points. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
Rallying from an 18-point second-half deficit, North Carolina came back to defeat ninth-ranked Wake Forest, 58-55, this past Saturday. It was a great home win for the Tar Heels. However, now the Tar Heels have to travel on a short week to face another ranked team, Pittsburgh. The Panthers match up better against the Tar Heels than the Demon Deacons did. Plus the Panthers are home and in a great situational spot catching the Tar Heels on short rest following a great victory. North Carolina has lost and failed to cover the three times it has played away from home this season, losing those games by an average of 13.3 points. Kenny Pickett could be the most improved quarterback in college football. Sparked by Pickett, a trio of good running backs and excellent wideouts, the Panthers are averaging a nation-best 45 points a game. They are No. 2 in the country in yards averaging 543.3. Sam Howell is one of the top QB's in the country. The Tar Heels can't match Pitt's numbers, though, especially when on the road and going against a good defense. North Carolina averages 22 points in its non-home games. North Carolina gives up 33.4 points per game. Pittsburgh holds foes to 22.7 points per game and ranks 15th in run defense. The Panthers give up just 3.2 yards per carry, bad news for Tar Heels' running back Ty Chandler. Howell is less effective if he's one-dimensional without Chandler producing on the ground. Pittsburgh has the second most sacks in the ACC. Expect Pickett to get the better of Howell backed by the superior defense and for Pittsburgh to win this one by double-digits. |
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11-03-21 | Central Michigan +10 v. Western Michigan | Top | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
I don't see where Western Michigan is double-digits better than Central Michigan even at home. I find this line out of whack. Each team averages 29 points a game. Central Michigan gives up one more point per game than Western Michigan. The Chippewas upset Toledo in overtime two games ago. Western Michigan just played Toledo last week and lost, 34-15. Both teams have balanced attacks. I do give the Broncos an edge at the skill position spots with QB Kaleb Eleby, wide receiver Skyy Moore and running back La'darius Jefferson. Eleby is my starting QB on my Mid-American Conference fantasy team. (Yes I actually am in a MAC fantasy league, maybe the only one in the country.) But the Broncos' edge in skill position talent is offset by turnovers. Western Michigan has turned the ball over twice as much as Central Michigan this season. The Broncos only have two takeaways, too, during their last four games. Central Michigan has been outstanding in a 'dog role under Jim McElwain going 9-3 ATS during the last two plus seasons. The Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven MAC games. This is a huge in-state rivalry game. The road team has dominated the point spread in this series covering eight of the past nine times. |
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10-30-21 | Louisiana Tech -4 v. Old Dominion | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 57 m | Show |
Simply put there's a class difference here not reflective of the betting line. Louisiana Tech is experiencing a down and disappointing season. But the Bulldogs still harbor bowl hopes. They are much superior to Old Dominion, which is a bottom-10 caliber team. Louisiana Tech is in circle-the-wagons mode having lost three in a row. A pair of those losses were to North Carolina State and to Texas San Antonio, which is the top 25. Old Dominion has dropped five consecutive games. The Monarchs' lone victory was against Hampton, a non Division-I opponent. They are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 conference games and 2-7 ATS during their past nine home contests. The strength of the Bulldogs is their passing attack, which ranks 25th. QB Austin Kendall has three good wide receivers in Smoke Harris, Bub Means and Tre Harris. Old Dominion ranks 126th in pass defense. The Monarchs are not going to be able to stop Louisiana Tech's passing attack. Their hope is Louisiana Tech turns the ball over, which it has. However, the Monarchs only have three takeaways. Without causing turnovers, Old Dominion won't be able to hang close. |
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10-29-21 | UNLV v. Nevada -20 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
There are two winless FBS football teams - Arizona and UNLV. The Rebels have lost 13 straight games. They aren't going to end that losing skid at Nevada-Reno. The answer is yes because of the makeup of these two teams and a huge edge in talent for the Wolf Pack. UNLV's strength is running the ball. Charles Williams is one of the best running backs in the Mountain West Conference. This is no secret to the Wolf Pack. They are going to stack the line and bring their safeties up to key on Williams and UNLV's ground attack. The Rebels have a pair of inexperienced freshmen quarterbacks. Neither of whom has demonstrated any consistency passing downfield. Nevada's passing attack is too strong for the Rebels to slow down. Wolf Pack QB Carson Strong is a pro prospect. The Wolf Pack rank third in the nation in passing yards. Strong has multiple excellent receiving targets. UNLV ranks 123rd out of 130 FBS teams in pass defense efficiency. The Rebels give up a staggering 71.2 percent completion percentage and 8.7 yards per attempt. Strong has completed 70.6 percent of his throws with a 20-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Rebels only have seven sacks and five takeaways. They can't count on a pass rush, nor takeaways to keep them in the game. Because of their poor passing attack, the Rebels are in big trouble when they fall behind. UNLV averages fewer than 20 points a game and ranks 123rd in total yards. UNLV's defense gives up 33.9 points a game, which ranks 117th. Strong should have no trouble lighting up the Rebels' porous defense. UNLV doesn't have the passing attack to stay within three touchowns of Reno. The Wolf Pack are 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games. |
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10-23-21 | San Diego State +3 v. Air Force | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
I'm attracted to the unbeaten Aztecs, especially if getting more than a field goal, in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring game. There are no secrets here. These teams are going to be running - a lot. San Diego State has the superior run defense and the best running back in Greg Bell. The Aztecs rank No. 1 in the country in run defense. They are holding foes to only 16 points a game. The Falcons are favored because of home field and the Aztecs switching quarterbacks going to Lucas Johnson, who began his career at Georgia Tech. Johnson can only be an upgrade on Jordan Brookshire.
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10-23-21 | Maryland v. Minnesota -4 | Top | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
Minnesota has picked up its game since a Week 4 upset loss to Bowling Green. Since that defeat the Gophers pulled their own upsets knocking off Purdue on the road and Nebraska with both victories coming by seven points. Tanner Morgan finally is showing something at quarterback for Minnesota. The Gophers' offensive line is opening holes for their running backs no matter who carries the ball and Minnesota's defense has allowed just 12.5 points in its last four games. Maryland's confidence is down after blowout losses to Iowa and Ohio State by a combined 96 points. The Gophers hold a big coaching edge, too, with PJ Fleck versus Mike Locklsley. The Terrapins have failed to cover nine of the last 11 times they've been a road 'dog.
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10-21-21 | Tulane v. SMU -13.5 | Top | 26-55 | Win | 100 | 69 h 1 m | Show |
Tulane is in free fall losing and failing to cover its last four games. The Green Wave have lost their last two games by 23 points to East Carolina and by 18 to Houston. Now the Green Wave go on the road to face a motivated SMU team that wants to prove itself as the best team in the American Athletic Conference and a legitimate top-25 team. The Mustangs are ranked No. 21 in the currentThe Associated Press poll. Not only are the Mustangs home, but this is a nationally televised game on ESPN. Tulane ranks among the bottom-eight in points allowed at 40.2 and yards giving up more than 475 per game. QB Tanner Mordecia has come through in a big way for the Mustangs. SMU ranks in the top-10 in scoring at 40.7 and in yards gained. The Green Wave are averaging 23.2 points in their last four games. SMU should be good for at least 40 points here. Tulane isn't going to be able to keep up.
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10-15-21 | San Diego State -9 v. San Jose State | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
This isn't 2020 when San Jose State had a magical season winning all seven of their regular season games. The Spartans are way down this year because their offense has gone into the tank. QB Nick Starkel has missed the last two games and is questionable for this matchup. Starkel hasn't played well. Spartans backup QB Nick Nash did not look good in losing to Colorado State, 32-14, last week. The Spartans rank 114th in scoring at 20.5 points a game and are 113th in total yards. They have scored fewer than 18 points in four of their five games versus Division I teams. San Jose has yet to cover against any of the five Division I opponents they've played. San Diego State is 5-0, winning with a strong running game and solid defense. Greg Bell is one of the best running backs in the Mountain West. The Spartans are minus 13 in turnover ratio. The Aztecs have 18 sacks and seven interceptions.
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10-08-21 | Temple +30 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
Cincinnati is coming off one of its biggest wins ever, a road victory last week against then No. 9 ranked Notre Dame. No doubt the Bearcats are good, darn good. But the linesmaker isn't giving Temple enough respect here. Like other schools, Temple had its 2020 season disrupted by COVID-19. They weren't even able to scrimmage until October. So the Owls' 1-6 2020 season is not indicative of who they are. Temple has been well-coached and enjoyed good success during the previous five years before 2020. Things are back to normal for Temple. The Owls have a winning record. They showed their potential, upsetting Memphis, 34-31, as 11-point home 'dogs last week. Cincinnati has the far superior defense, but the Owls don't lack firepower. Wide receiver Jaden Blue is a pro prospect. QB D'Wan Mathis is off his finest performance completing 35 passes to a dozen different receivers against Memphis for 322 yards and three TD's. The two teams did not meet last year. But in three meetings from 2017-2019, Temple beat Cincinnati twice and lost, 15-13, in 2019 when the Bearcats returned a 99-yard defensive conversion in the fourth quarter. The Owls have covered 68 percent of the time they've been a road 'dog the last 31 times. It's asking too much of Cincinnati to cover this large of a number against an underrated foe following one of their all-time best victories.
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10-01-21 | Iowa -3 v. Maryland | Top | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
Both Iowa and Maryland are 4-0. But there are reasons why Iowa is ranked fifth in the country in the latest AP Top 25 poll, while Maryland is outside of the top 25. The Hawkeyes are far superior defensively. The Hawkeyes are surrendering just 11 points a game, third-best in the nation. Maryland has played a weak schedule. The Terrapins haven't faced a defense anywhere near the caliber of Iowa. Maryland is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 Big Ten games. Iowa has thrived in this role, a proven commodity with a 20-6 ATS mark the past 26 times as a road favorite. The Hawkeyes' last four road victories against Power 5 conference opponents all were by double-digits. Taulia Tagovailoa leads the Big Ten in passing yards and completion percentage. But he's not as good as his brother, Tua. The Hawkeyes lead the Big Ten with six interceptions. I would take their defense over Tagovailoa. Iowa is the better coached team and owns huge edges on both lines of scrimmage.
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09-24-21 | Liberty -6.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
Liberty may be the best team you don't know. The Flames have covered their last 10 games and are led by QB Malik Willis, the Lamar Jackson of college football and likely high draft pick. The Flames are 3-0 this season, which isn't surprising since they returned nearly all of their starters from last season's 10-1 team that upset Virginia Tech on the road and defeated Coastal Carolina in a bowl game. Willis is a dynamic superstar, who has the highest passer rating in the country. He's accounted for 11 TD's and hasn't thrown an interception. Syracuse is 2-1 beating Ohio and FCS foe Albany. The Orangemen lost, 17-7, to Rugers, a lower-tier Big Ten team. Syracuse is 5-16 in its last 21 games and has yet to demonstrate much of a passing attack. Liberty is very strong defensively returning nine starters from a top-25 defense of a year ago. I see Liberty covering for the ninth straight time in a favorite's role.
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09-18-21 | Purdue v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 41 h 33 m | Show |
Notre Dame has been life and death to nip Florida State in overtime and hold off upset-minded Toledo. That has caused the linesmaker to underrated Notre Dame. The Irish are still an elite team, two levels higher than Purdue especially when at home. Jack Coan has answered the big question at quarterback. He's completed nearly 70 percent of his throws for more than 600 yards with six TD passes. The Irish are much better at the other positions than they have shown so far. If the Irish are vulnerable it's in stopping the run. Purdue, though, is a passing team. The Boilermakers don't run the ball well. Purdue is stepping way up in class after getting to play hapless Connecticut last week. The Boilermakers buried the Huskies, 49-0.
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09-17-21 | Maryland v. Illinois +7 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
Sparked by QB Brandon Peters, Illinois defeated Nebraska, 30-22, back on Aug. 28. Peters, however, was injured in that game. He didn't play in the Illini's last two games, losses to UTSA and Virginia. Peters is back for this game. The Illini are being underrated here because of a bad 42-14 loss to Virginia. I believe Illinois is better and tougher under new coach Bret Bielema. The Illini will prove it here. I'm not a fan of Maryland coach Mike Locksley. I especially want to go against Maryland as a road favorite in this point spread range. The Terrapins have covered only 27 percent of their last 26 away contests. The Terrapins are 2-0, but their last game was against FCS foe Howard, a 62-0 win. So their statistics are skewed. This also is Maryland's first road game. |
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09-11-21 | NC State v. Mississippi State | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 13 m | Show |
The national media hasn't caught on yet, but the wise guys have. North Carolina State is extremely strong this season, probably the second-best team in the ACC. The Wolfpack have no glaring weaknesses. They have a strong, experienced offensive line. Excellent skill position talent and a shut-down caliber defense. Mississippi State isn't in that class. The Bulldogs are way too prone to turning the ball over and making mistakes. Yes they have an exciting attack. But they're going to turn the ball over and commit dumb, costly mistakes. It's a typical Mike Leach team. The Bulldogs had to outscore Louisiana Tech by 18 points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 35-34 opening week win as 20 1/2-point home favorites. That's what happens when you turn the ball over six times and commit 12 penalties as the Bulldogs did. That kind of sloppy performance certainly isn't going to cut it stepping way up in class against North Carolina State. It's telling that Mississippi State couldn't control the line of scrimmage against Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs don't have the defense to stop North Carolina State even if their offense cuts way back on the turnovers. |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 23 m | Show |
Florida State stands an excellent chance of getting its revenge for a 42-26 loss suffered on the road to Notre Dame last year. The Irish lost considerable talent. It's going to take them time to gel. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Jack Coan, remembering how ineffective he was at Wisconsin before transferring to Notre Dame. I remain surprised that he's the Irish's starting QB. Notre Dame also is breaking in four new starting offensive linemen. Florida State has another talented, athletic and fast roster. The Seminoles should bounce back from last season's COVID-ravaged year. I like both of the Seminoles' QB's - Jordan Travis and McKenzie Milton - better than Coan. Milton was a superstar throwing for 8,683 yards and 72 TD's in three years at Central Florida before suffering a serious knee injury in 2018. He's now ready to resume his career. There's another situational edge to this matchup for Florida State. It's the Seminoles' first game since the passing of longtime and beloved coach Bobby Bowden. So the team should be sky high.
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09-04-21 | Baylor -14 v. Texas State | Top | 29-20 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
Baylor is coming off a disastrous COVID-shortened 2-7 season, which ruined Dave Aranda's first season in Waco. I'm looking for the Bears to be much better this year. As bad as Baylor was last year the Bears still rate more than a two touchdown class difference against Texas State of the Sun Belt Conference. The Bobcats are 15-57 the last six years, including 2-10 last season under third-year coach Jake Spavital. Aranda had been one of the most highly-respected defensive coordinators in college football before coming to Baylor. His defense, which returns 10 starters, shouldn't have problems against a weak Texas State offense that has been unsettled at QB and devoid of playmakers. Texas State is bad on defense, too, giving up nearly 40 points a game last season and close to 500 yards. The Bears have covered 71 percent of their last 15 away contests. |
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09-02-21 | Boise State v. Central Florida -5.5 | Top | 31-36 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
Buckle your seat belt because this is going to be a fast ride with these two teams. Both have new head coaches. The belief here is that Central Florida has more reliable firepower than Boise State at this early stage. Making a long trip to play in the heat and humidity of Florida works against Boise State, too. Central Florida coach Gus Malzahn was let go at Auburn despite never finishing below .500 in eight seasons. Malzahn is an offensive whiz. UCF has averaged more than 40 points per game in each of the last four seasons. The Knights have one of the top QB's in the country, Dillon Gabriel. He threw for 3,570 yards with a 32-to-4 TD-to-interception ratio in 10 games last season. The Broncos have a new coach, Andy Avalos, and a new offensive coordinator, Tim Plough. Avalos is unproven. Malzahn isn't.
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09-01-21 | UAB v. Jacksonville State +16.5 | Top | 31-0 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
This actually should be a good game as these are two talented teams. UAB has the better defense and more depth, but Jacksonville State is a dangerous opponent having made the FCS playoffs six of the past seven years. The Gamecocks have the necessary run defense and offensive firepower to keep things close the entire game. Jacksonville State QB Zerrick Cooper is either first or second in school history in passing TD's, passing yards and total offensive yards. The Gamecocks have their entire offensive line intact and feature solid skill position talent around Cooper. UAB has a strong team, too. But the Blazers no longer have their all-time leading rusher, Spencer Brown, and they lost 50 percent of their receiving production from the past two seasons. I'm not anti-UAB here. I just think Jacksonville State is being underrated lacking the name recognition being an FCS school.
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama -8 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 129 h 9 m | Show |
Ohio State has its worst defense of recent years especially in the secondary. Alabama has its most explosive offense ever, which is saying a lot. This combination is enough for the Crimson Tide to defeat the Buckeyes by double-digits and cover the spread. Yes, the Buckeyes have an explosive offense, too. I would take Justin Fields over Alabama QB Mac Jones. The Crimson Tide's defense doesn't have as many dominant players as in the past few years, but their defense still is more talented than Clemson's in the line and secondary. So they are going to get some stops against Ohio State. I don't see Ohio State slowing down Alabama at all. Jones, running back Najee Harris and wide receiver DeVonta Smith were all Heisman Trophy finalists with Smith capturing the award. Smith caught 105 passes for 1,641 yards and 20 TD's. I've watched Alabama football since the days of Joe Namath being under center and I've never seen a Crimson Tide wide receiver have the season Smith had. Oh, yes, Alabama also has the best offensive line in college football even without injured stud center Landon Dickerson. This group is in the discussion for being the greatest O-line in Alabama history. Ohio State ranked just 56th in fewest yards per play and that was playing an easier schedule than Alabama. Just last year the Buckeyes ranked first in that category showing what a drop their defense has experienced this season.
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12-31-20 | West Virginia -6.5 v. Army | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -116 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
Army received it's wish to play in a bowl game. Sometimes it's not good, though, to get what you wish. The Black Knights draw West Virginia in the Liberty Bowl. The Mountaineers are a bad fit for Army. The Black Knights had an outstanding season going 9-2, including highly-satisfying victories against rivals Navy and Air Force. But West Virginia is the wrong bowl opponent for them. Army is entirely dependent on running the ball averaging just 36 yards passing a game. Only four teams allowed fewer yards per game than West Virginia. The Mountaineers have a very stout run defense allowing 3.8 yards per rush. They have a pair of NFL defensive line draft prospects in the Stills brothers, Darius and Dante. The Black Knights' glittering 9-2 record doesn't look so shiny on closer examination as three of their victories were against FCS foes Abilene Christian, Citadel and Mercer. Another was against 0-10 Louisiana Monroe. They nipped Georgia Southern by one point. Army's losses came against Cincinnati, 24-10, and to Tulane, 38-12. Those two foes are more in line with the caliber of West Virginia. It's disconcerting to Army that it has been held to 15 points or fewer in three of its last four games. West Virginia faced much better opposition being in the Big 12 Conference. The Mountaineers defeated TCU and lost on the road to Texas by just four points. Unlike Army, West Virginia has a balanced attack. Army didn't face too many passing teams. West Virginia QB Jarret Doege isn't Trevor Lawrence, but he threw for more than 200 yards in every game and has a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Running back Leddie Brown is a good all-purpose back who rushed for nearly 1,000 yards while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. The Mountaineers are the fresher team. They last played on Dec. 5 giving them ample time to game plan for Army's triple option attack. Army beat Navy on Dec. 12 and then followed that up by defeating Air Force on Dec. 19. Those were the biggest games on the Black Knights' schedule. So they might actually be in letdown mode despite this being a bowl game. Army also will be in big trouble if it has to play from behind lacking any semblance of a passing attack. |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin -7 v. Wake Forest | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
Wisconsin has a far superior defense than Wake Forest. The question with the Badgers is producing enough scoring to cover this touchdown spread. I see that happening against a weak Wake Forest defense and with highly-talented freshman Badgers QB Graham Mertz returning to his pre-COVID-19 form. The Badgers haven't landed a highly rated freshman quarterback like Mertz in well maybe forever. Mertz was living up to the hype, too, with a combined 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the Badgers' first two games - blowout victories against Illinois and Michigan. Then Mertz contracted COVID and Wisconsin's offense went into the tank. Mertz is past the illness now. He doesn't have the skill position weapons of previous Wisconsin teams, but the Badgers have another strong offensive line and running back depth. The Badgers led the nation in time of possession. They also are facing a Demon Deacon defense that allows 31.6 points a game and ranks 107th in total defense. Mertz can pick his spots against a highly vulnerable Wake Forest secondary. Wake Forest wins with its offense. But the Demon Deacons haven't encountered a defense like Wisconsin's. The Badgers give up the fewest yards per game in the nation and rank sixth in scoring defense holding foes to 15.6 points a game. They rank rank sixth in run defense and seventh in pass defense. Sam Hartman is a good, but not a great quarterback. He plays behind a leaky offensive line that allowed an average of 3.2 sacks per game. Wisconsin is 4-1 in bowl games under Paul Chryst. The Badgers' lone bowl defeat under Chryst came last season when they were nipped, 28-27, by Justin Herbert's Oregon team in the Rose Bowl. No shame in that especially seeing how great Herbert has been in the NFL. The Badgers missed games early in the season because of COVID-19 issues. But their season hasn't been nearly as disrupted as Wake Forest's has. The Badgers have played five games in the last six weeks. They defeated Minnesota in their last game on Dec. 19. Wake Forest has only played once since Nov. 14 and that was a horrible 45-21 loss to Louisville on Dec. 12. The Demon Deacons haven't won since October. They played the fewest games of any ACC team this season.
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12-24-20 | Hawaii +11.5 v. Houston | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
This has been a college football season like no other. Houston certainly can attest to that. The Cougars had eight games postponed/canceled/rescheduled because of COVID-19. They have played just once since Nov. 14 -and that was a 30-27 loss to Memphis as 7-point road favorites. Originally scheduled to be played in New Mexico, this bowl game is now being played in Frisco, Texas, which is near Dallas. Hawaii is excited to come to the mainland and play. It's only their second bowl game outside of Hawaii in 28 years. Houston isn't nearly as excited. The Cougars could be down up to 20 players because of opt outs, COVID-19 issues and academic ineligibilities. Houston has been particularly hard hit on defense. Sacks leader Payton Turner, tackles leader Grant Stuard and linebacker Terrance Edgeston all are out. Because of this the Cougars shouldn't be double-digit favorites. I don't like the track record of Cougars coach Dana Holgorsen in bowl games. He's 0-6 ATS in his last six bowl games dating back to when he was coaching at West Virginia. Hawaii is from the Mountain West Conference while Houston comes out of the American Athletic Conference. AAC teams went into Wednesday 0-2 in bowl games with Tulane losing as a short favorite to Nevada and Central Florida getting blown out by BYU. Note that Hawaii defeated Nevada, 24-21, on Nov. 28. The Rainbow Warriors don't have the high-powered attack of past seasons. But neither does Houston. The Rainbow Warriors do have a balanced attack and haven't lost the turnover battle in their past five games. |
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12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic +9.5 v. Memphis | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
I'll take these many points with a much superior Florida Atlantic defense against a Memphis squad that doesn't win bowl games, nor cover games. Memphis has a potent offense. However, Florida Atlantic gives up the ninth-fewest points in the nation and ranks 17th in sacks. Only twice in eight games did the Owls surrender more than 24 points. The Tigers failed to cover in any of the four games they were favored against Division I foes. They scored only 10 points versus Navy and 21 against Tulane in two of their past three games. Memphis has lost straight-up and failed to cover each of the last five years in its bowl games, too. Florida Atlantic has a balanced attack. I don't think the gap is nearly this wide as the point spread indicates. It wouldn't surprise me if the Owls pulled an outright upset. Of Memphis' seven victories, five of them were by a combined eight points. |
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12-18-20 | Nebraska v. Rutgers +6.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -104 | 38 h 33 m | Show |
On the surface this game doesn't hold much interest. Nebraska is 2-5 enduring another disappointing season under Scott Frost. Rutgers is 3-5. But the game actually means something to Rutgers because the Scarlet Knights has never won more than three Big 10 games since joining the conference in 2014. "This Nebraska game is everything," Rutgers coach Greg Schiano said. Schiano has done a nice job with the Scarlet Knights. The game means more to them than the Cornhuskers. I also believe Rutgers is the better team. Nebraska averages just 22.4 points. The Cornhuskers have been favored twice - and lost straight-up both times to Illinois and to Minnesota last week. Nebraska has had multiple turnovers in five of its seven games. Rutgers leads the Big 10 in tackles for losses. Rutgers has defeated Michigan State, Purdue and Maryland. All of those wins came on the road, too.
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12-05-20 | Indiana v. Wisconsin -14 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 13 m | Show |
The Badgers ended up having two weeks to stew after their upset loss to Northwestern since last week's game against Minnesota was cancelled. Wisconsin is 15-5 ATS following a bye for 75 percent. Wisconsin catches a huge break in that Indiana lost its starting QB, Michael Penix, for the season due to a knee injury suffered last week against Maryland. The Hoosiers' strength was their passing attack. Their ground game had been disappointing until playing the Terps. The Badgers give up the fewest yards in the nation. They also rank No. 2 in run defense. Only two teams allow fewer points per game than Wisconsin, which has held its opponents to an average of 11.7 per game. I don't see the Hoosiers being able to dent Wisconsin's defense with a backup QB and mediocre ground attack. The Hoosiers have thrived on takeaways coming up with 18, including a nation-best 16 interceptions. Wisconsin is a ground-and-pound team, though, with its best quarterback prospect, Graham Mertz, in a long time. Mertz is back healthy and because of his passing skills, the Hooisers won't be able to stack the line, or play their safeties in the box to load up on the run.
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12-03-20 | Louisiana Tech +2 v. North Texas | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Louisiana Tech currently is a slight road underdog to North Texas. But the Bulldogs shouldn't be. They have had four weeks to prepare and catch North Texas down in the dumps following a demoralizing 49-17 road loss to Texas San Antonio, probably the Mean Green's biggest Conference USA rival. Louisiana Tech is a dangerous 4-3 team with two of its defeats coming to Top 15 teams Marshall and BYU and the other defeat coming to Texas San Antonio, 27-26. The Bulldogs haven't played in the last four weeks. But the rust factor is more than offset by being fresh, having good practices and deep preparation for North Texas. The Mean Green, on the other hand, are playing on just five day's rest. Louisiana Tech is averaging better than 30 points per game and has some excellent skill position talent, including wide receiver Smoke Harris and running back Israel Tucker. They can take advantage of a Mean Green defense that ranks last in Conference USA in scoring defense giving up 41 points a game and also is at the bottom in rush defense and pass defense. The Bulldogs buried North Texas, 52-17, last season. North Texas has covered just four of its last 14 home contests and is a dreadful 1-11 ATS versus above .500 opponents. |
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11-27-20 | Notre Dame -4.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 48 m | Show |
The Irish can't afford to slip up here in their hopes of reaching the national title game. And they shouldn't because they are much too balanced for North Carolina. Both teams have outstanding offenses. But North Carolina is much more vulnerable on defense especially when stopping the run. The Tar Heels also come up with very few takeaways. Notre Dame ranks fourth against the run and are in the top 11 in total defense and scoring defense - and that's after playing Clemson. The Irish have scored 40 or more points in five of their eight games, while holding foes under 14 points five times. The Tar Heels can't match that. I don't see Sam Howell being so effective when the Irish take away North Carolina's ground attack. The Irish have covered the last six times they've been favored by a touchdown or less.
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11-21-20 | Florida International +7.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Florida International's 0-4 record is a bit deceiving and Western Kentucky can't score. The Hilltoppers are near the bottom in college football in points and yards per game. They are averaging 11.6 points in their last six games and haven't scored more than 24 points in a game all season. The Panthers nearly upset 21st-ranked Liberty, losing 36-34 on the road. They were impacted by COVID-19, but are coming out of that now. Western Kentucky hasn't won a game by more than 3 points all season. The Hilltoppers are 5-17-1 ATS the past 23 times when laying points and have covered just 20 percent of their past 11 games going 2-8-1 ATS. Florida International, on the other hand, has covered 12 of the last 17 times it has been a 'dog.
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11-20-20 | Syracuse +20 v. Louisville | Top | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
I'll take nearly 3 TD's against a Louisville team that is 2-6 and has lost six of its last seven games. The Cardinals are without their star running back Javian Hawkins, who opted out of the season, and could be minus their star wide receiver, Tutu Atwell, too. He's questionable due to injury. Syracuse isn't good either. But the Orange will be at full strength for the first time in a month. That will aid their rotation depth. They also are off a bye, which will help freshman QB JaCobian Morgan. Syracuse hung in against Boston College in its last game, losing 16-13 as 14 1/2-point 'dogs. Morgan was 19-of-30 for 188 yards and a TD in that game. If there's one thing Syracuse does well it is come up with takeaways forcing 17. That ranks second nationally. Louisville, by contrast, has committed 18 turnovers. Only three teams have lost the ball more.
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11-14-20 | Notre Dame v. Boston College +14 | Top | 45-31 | Push | 0 | 106 h 5 m | Show |
This is the mother of all letdown spots for Notre Dame and I'm going to take advantage of it by grabbing two TD's with home underdog Boston College. The Irish are still celebrating Brian Kelly's first win against a top-five program with their 47-40 double overtime win against Clemson this past Saturday. Boston College is good enough to pull the outright upset. The Eagles lost by just six points on the road to Clemson. They have been a tremendous underdog going 19-7-1 ATS the past 27 times in that role, including covering the past five times at home. BC coach Jeff Hafley has improved the Eagles defense making it respectable, while Notre Dame transfer QB Phil Jurkovec has a big arm, is athletic and can run. The Eagles aren't lacking in skill position talent with Jurkovec, Zay Flowers, David Bailey and Hunter Long. Boston College is going to treat this game like a Holy War taking the matchup much more serious than Notre Dame.
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11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +3.5 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
I trust Minnesota's offense. The Gophers have outstanding skill position talent with Mohamed Ibrahim, who leads the Big Ten in rushing, Rashod Bateman - who is in the argument for being the best wide receiver in the Big Ten - and QB Tanner Morgan. Minnesota has produced 85 points in its last two games, both on the road against Maryland and Illinois. Now the Gophers get Iowa at home in a major rivalry matchup with the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy at stake. Personally, I feel the loser of this game should own the hardware since it's a trophy of a pig. But these teams really care about owning the trophy. Iowa is coming off a 49-7 blowout of Michigan State. But I don't trust Iowa's offense the way I do Minnesota's. Michigan State is down this season. Minnesota's defense can handle Iowa QB Spencer Petras, who is completing just 54 percent and has a 2-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Petras isn't a running threat like other QB's Minnesota has faced and had trouble containing. He's also not an accurate enough passer to keep up with the Gophers' high-powered attack.
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11-11-20 | Toledo +3 v. Western Michigan | Top | 38-41 | Push | 0 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
Both Toledo and Western Michigan looked great in its opening-week Mid-American Conference victories last week. But I'm not putting much stock into those wins because they were layups against horrible opponents, Bowling Green for Toledo and Akron for Western Michigan. What I am putting stock in is Toledo's recent history against Western Michigan, the Broncos holding less of a home field advantage than perceived and Rockets' redemption from last year's disappointing season. The Rockets finished 6-6 last season, their worst mark since 2009. They weren't invited to a bowl game. I'm expecting that to change this season. The Rockets have a healthy QB in Eli Peters and a pair of quality senior running backs, Bryant Koback and Shakif Seymour. Toledo has experience in the defensive line and secondary. I like the Rockets' talent on both sides of the ball. Western Michigan had to replace its starting QB and also lost MAC Offensive Player of the Year running back LeVante Bellamy. The Broncos haven't been able to beat the Rockets since PJ Fleck left for Minnesota. Toledo has won the last three in the series, including 27-point victories each of the last two years. Western Michigan is tough at Waldo Stadium, but no public attendance is allowed for the game. The Broncos were fortunate to play many weak teams at home last season. That's not the case here. |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
I believe Buffalo is the best team in the MId-American Conference and the Bulls did nothing to dispel that notion rolling past Northern Illinois, 49-30, during the MAC's opening week. The Bulls are very well-coached under Lance Leipold. They've been hot since the middle of last season covering eight of their last nine games. They also have covered 77 percent of their past 22 home games. Miami of Ohio has high expectations, too. But the Redhawks were fortunate to get past Ball State, 38-31, at home last week scoring the game-winning TD with 10 seconds left following a Ball State turnover. The Redhawks could be without their starting QB, Brett Gabbert. He's questionable after suffering a head injury against Ball State. Sophomore AJ Mayer replaced Gabbert and played well. However, Mayer, who did not throw a pass last year, would be on the road and meeting a far stronger defense. The Bulls also have film on him now. I don't see MIami of Ohio slowing down the Bulls' strong ground attack, nor being able to put up enough points to stay within double-digits. |
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11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State -9 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -106 | 42 h 47 m | Show |
I like the job Brent Brennan has done and is doing at San Jose State. The Spartans aren't a joke anymore. But they aren't good enough to stay within double-digits on the road against San Diego State. This is the 2-0 Spartans' first road game. They face the premier defense in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State also is 2-0 beating UNLV and Utah State by a combined margin of 72-13. The Aztecs held those two foes to a combined 6.5 points and 200 total yards of offense. I don't see San Jose State QB Nick Starkel - who is the Ryan Fitzpatrick of college football with his journeyman background - getting the better of the Aztecs defense. Starkel has played at Arkansas, Texas A&M and Texas. The Spartans can't match the Aztecs on defense. The Aztecs have an excellent running back, Greg Bell, and a balanced offense. |
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11-04-20 | Buffalo -10 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 49-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show |
Buffalo is favored to capture the Mid-American Conference, which kicks off their abbreviated season Wednesday. The Bulls' opponent is Northern Illinois, which was picked last in both the MAC Coaches Poll and Media Poll. Closely examining this matchup, it's apparent oddsmakers opened this line too short. Buffalo hasn't lost in more than a year. The Bulls' 2019 season culminated with a 31-9 blowout victory against Charlotte in the Bahamas Bowl. The Bulls held five of their last six foes to three touchdowns or fewer. The Bulls held opponents to less than three yards per run last season. Northern Illinois lacks an explosive offense and has a weak defense. The Huskies are extremely young, too, with 67 percent of their roster being freshmen. Buffalo has multiple good running backs and a strong offensive line. The Bears have the experience and talent gap to easily cover this margin.
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10-30-20 | Minnesota -19 v. Maryland | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -112 | 58 h 53 m | Show |
So much for any Maryland improvement this year. The Terps were crushed 43-3 in their opening game last Saturday. No, it wasn't by any of the Big Ten powers. That 40-point loss came to Northwestern! Minnesota is a better team than the Wildcats. Maryland surrendered 325 yards rushing to Northwestern. Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim is superior to any of the Wildcat running backs. The Gophers have a huge edge in the passing game with QB Tanner Morgan and Rashod Bateman, who could be the best wide receiver in the Big Ten. The Gophers were hoping to defeat Michigan in their opener last Saturday. Didn't happen because the Wolverines had too many edges in the trenches. That won't be the case for the Gophers against this foe. Minnesota should control the line of scrimmage and its skill people are dangerous enough to make this game more of a blowout than the oddsmaker envisions. The Terps need their offense to at least be competitive. It wasn't against Northwestern generating just an early field goal. Taulia Tagovailoa didn't resemble his brother Tua at all. He was a major disappointment. He ended up getting yanked after throwing three interceptions. I have zero confidence that Maryland coach Mike Locksley can fix things, especially in such a short period of a time. |
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10-23-20 | UL-Lafayette v. UAB +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
Louisiana Lafayette is 0-5 ATS the past five times it has been favored. I don't see that changing in this matchup. Alabama-Birmingham has the better rushing attack with Spencer Brown, the superior defense and is home. UAB has covered 72 percent of its past 26 home games. The Ragin' Cajuns have an up-tempo attack. They play fast and can run the ball well, too. But I like the Blazers ability to maintain ball-control and win the time of possession battle pounding away with Brown. The Blazers have rushed for more than 200 yards in three of their five games, while going 4-1. Brown has run for 472 yards with six TD's. UAB's offensive line, which has four returning starters, has permitted only three sacks. Lafayette surrendered 212 rushing yards in a 30-27 upset loss to Coastal Carolina in its last game. |
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10-17-20 | Central Florida -2.5 v. Memphis | Top | 49-50 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
Central Florida has had two weeks to stew and think about its previous game - a home game the Knights lost straight-up to Tulsa as three-touchdown favorites. The ramifications of that stunning loss are two-fold: The Knights should come out extremely fired-up and ready. They also have discount value as the marketplace has knocked them down to being less than a field goal favorite. Central Florida is better than Memphis. But that loss to Tulsa hurt the Knights' prestige. They'll look to gain it back here against a foe they are 13-1 lifetime against with 13 straight victories. The teams didn't meet last year, but Central Florida beat the Tigers a combined four times during the 2017 and 2018 seasons. UCF has too much speed and skill position talent for the Tigers to handle. Knights sophomore QB Dillon Garbriel is one of the more underrated players in the country. Memphis is down from previous seasons because of coaching upheaval and lost talent. The Tigers don't have the defense to keep UCF in check, nor enough offense to keep up with the Knights. The Tigers' home field advantage is reduced, too, because only around 10,000 fans will be allowed into the 61,008-set Liberty Bowl due to COVID-19 restrictions. |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3 | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
Oddsmakers are projecting another Sun Belt Conference shootout in this matchup. We do have two good offenses going here. But Arkansas State has better defensive players and its defense has gotten healthier. Defensive lineman Forrest Merrill is a pro prospect and linebacker Justin Rice won Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Week honors last week. Arkansas State is holding foes to 3.6 yards rushing. The Red Wolves have played four games this season, including the past two weeks. Georgia State only has played twice. The Panthers were idle last week. So Arkansas State should be the more in sync team. Arkansas State has a strong home field advantage. The Red Wolves have been above .500 at Centennial Bank Stadium during each of the last 15 years. They are 44-10 in their last 54 home games. They also are 16-5 during their last 21 midweek games. Centennial Bank Stadium holds around 31,000. There will be seating for 12,000, which would give the Red Wolves about 40 percent fan capacity. Georgia State is 2-10-2 ATS in its last 14 away contests. Arkansas State has covered in four of its last five home games. The Red Wolves have revenge for a 52-38 road loss to Georgia State last year. Arkansas State had won the previous six meetings. Georgia State is breaking in a new quarterback. The Panthers have committed five turnovers in their two games. That's a red flag and another reason why I like Arkansas State to get the cover.. |
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10-10-20 | Kansas State +9 v. TCU | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
Gary Patterson is a good coach, but not when it comes to covering the spread as a home favorite. TCU stunningly has failed to accomplish that 21 of the past 27 (22 percent) times in that role. I don't see the Horned Frogs changing that trend in this matchup. TCU has a young team and is off a huge road victory against Texas as a double-digit 'dog. So a letdown is very possible. Kansas State is 6-1 ATS the past seven times as a road 'dog. The Wildcats have shown they are an underrated team upsetting Texas Tech and Oklahoma during their last two games. The line is too high here. This could be a reaction to K-State QB Skylar Thompson getting injured last week. Thompson could be ready to go here. Even if he isn't, though, I'm fine with backup QB Will Howard, who threw for 173 yards against Texas Tech after replacing Thompson. The Wildcats have an intriguing weapon in 5-foot-5, 168-pound fresham all-purpose back Deuce Vaughn. He's the only player in the Big 12 to lead his team in rushing and receiving and is the only player in the country to have both 200 rushing and receiving yards. Some of the Horned Frogs' home field edge is reduced because of limited capacity. Only 12,000 spectators will be allowed into 46,000 Amon Carter Stadium because of the pandemic. |
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10-10-20 | Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
Congrats to Arkansas' first-year head coach Sam Pittman in the Razorbacks upsetting then-No. 16 Mississippi State, 21-14, as 16 1/2-point road 'dogs last week. That was the Razorbacks' first SEC win following 20 straight conference losses. Don't expect the Razorbacks to make it two straight SEC victories. Not only do the Razorbacks face the challenge of a second straight league road game, but they have to refocus while drawing an angry Auburn. The Tigers lost to third-ranked Georgia last week. Arkansas has an improved defense. Still, the Razorbacks remain far inferior to Auburn. The Tigers blew out Arkansas, 51-10, on the road last year. There isn't a 41-point difference this season. But the gap still is more than two touchdowns.
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10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 56 m | Show |
I want Oklahoma going for me in a bounce-back spot after the Sooners were upset by Kansas State at home last week even though they outgained the Wildcats by 117 yards.The Sooners may have gotten complacent in that game with a 35-14 lead. The Sooners haven't lost consecutive regular season games in 21 years. Iowa State has talent, but the Cyclones aren't in the Sooners' elite class. The Cyclones already were beaten by Louisiana-Lafayette as 12-point home favorites and defeated TCU by three points. Oklahoma has dominated this series winning 20 of the last 21 meetings. The Sooners have won 24 in a row at Iowa State.
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09-19-20 | Central Florida -7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
Central Florida has been one of the most impressive teams in the country during the last three seasons going 35-4 while covering 64 percent of its away contests during this time frame. The Knights are proven road warriors covering 14 of their last 18 away matchups, winning 10 road games by more than a touchdown during this three-year span. The Knights start out fast, too, going 9-0 ATS during the first three games of the season the last three years. The Knights draw Georgia Tech, which is playing a non-conference game here. The Yellow Jackets opened their season upsetting fellow ACC foe, Florida State, 16-13 on the road as nearly two-touchdown 'dogs. So this is a potential flat spot and letdown spot for Georgia Tech. Not to take anything away from Georgia Tech, but Florida State did not play well. Central Florida has a much stronger offense than Georgia Tech, which still is in rebuild mode under second-year coach Geoff Collins.
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01-03-20 | Ohio v. Nevada +8 | Top | 30-21 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Akron and Bowling Green were the two worst teams in the Mid-American Conference this season. Ohio blew both of them out during its last two games. If you discount those two games, though, the Bobcats went 2-8 ATS, including an 0-6 ATS mark when favored. They also failed to cover in the four games they played against other bowl teams. Nevada is undervalued here, too, because while Ohio was blowing out bad opponents the Wolf Pack fell to UNLV as a 6.5-point home favorite in their final regular season game. Nevada is better as a 'dog than favorite. The Wolf Pack defeated Purdue, San Diego State and Fresno State straight-up all as a double-digit 'dog. The Wolf Pack also knows this venue in Idaho and its higher elevation and unique blue field because they play Boise State being in the Mountain West Conference.
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01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
Boston College was the sixth-best rushing team in the nation. Most of its rushing yards, though, were provided by AJ Dillon, one of the premier running backs in college football. Dillon is turning pro so he's sitting out this game. Dillon led the ACC in rushing with 1,685 yards. That's just one of the Eagles' many problems. BC's coach, Steve Addazio, was fired at the end of the regular season and the Eagles' offensive coordinator, Mike Bajakian, left to take a job at Northwestern. The Eagles lost their starting quarterback, Anthony Brown, to a knee injury and backup QB sophomore David Bailey has been erratic. Cincinnati is far more stable. The Bearcats have a major edge on defense and a balanced offensive attack with quarterback Desmond Ridder healthy again and solid running backs MIchael Warren III and Gerrid Oaks. |
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12-27-19 | Washington State +3 v. Air Force | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 5 m | Show |
You couldn't ask for a bigger contrast in styles with Air Force a top rushing team and Washington State a great passing team. The Cougars led the nation in passing with Anthony Gordon putting up better numbers than any QB, including Joe Burrow. Gordon has a slew of talented wideouts. Air Force is better versus the run than pass. The Falcons are used to running teams in the Mountain West Conference. Their pass defensive numbers look better than what their talent level is since they played Colgate along with heavily ground-oriented Army and Navy. Air Force doesn't have the depth in the secondary to hang with Washington State. The Falcons also lack the necessary strong pass rush. If you discount games against Colorado State and Hawaii, the Falcons only had 13 sacks. Washington State is better stopping the run than the pass. The Cougars have covered 15 of the last 22 times they've been underdogs.
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12-26-19 | Pittsburgh -10.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 51 m | Show |
Pittsburgh isn't fancy. The Panthers are meat and potatoes. But they should destroy Eastern Michigan being a Power Five team dropping way down in class to play a Mid-American Conference team in the Quick Lane Bowl. The bar is not set high here for the Panthers. Eastern Michigan can't stop the run and is going to have problems keeping the Pitt defense off quarterback Mike Glass III. The Panthers are 5-1 when rushing for more than 100 yards. The Eagles have yielded at least 230 yards on the ground in four of their last five games. Led by Jaylen Twyman, who has 10 1/2 sacks, the Panthers have recorded 49 sacks and 98 tackles for losses. So Pittsburgh should control the trenches. The key is motivation. Will the Panthers get up for this opponent? They certainly should. Panthers coach Pat Narduzzi is 0-3 in bowls games at Pittsburgh. The Panthers were nipped, 14-13, by Stanford in their bowl game last year. The Panthers won't have a better chance than this to get Narduzzi his first bowl win.
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12-21-19 | Central Michigan v. San Diego State -3.5 | Top | 11-48 | Win | 100 | 64 h 48 m | Show |
San Diego State's defense is going to trump Central Michigan's offense. The Aztec's finished in the top five in the nation in run defense, scoring defense and total defense. SDS held foes to 12.8 points a game. No team reached 24 points on the Aztecs, who also held all but three of their 12 opponents to 85 or fewer rushing yards. Central Michigan was stopped by Miami of Ohio, 26-21, in the MAC title game. San Diego State is a much better defensive team than Miami of Ohio. The Chippewas are 0-5 when rushing for fewer than 135 yards. Wyoming was the lone team to rush for more than 135 yards versus SDS. The Aztecs have enough offense to cover this number. The key for them is they don't turn the ball over averaging just 0.6 per game. San Diego State shouldn't lack motivation either coming off an embarrassing 27-0 loss to Ohio, another MAC team, in last year's Frisco Bowl. SDS also lost two years ago to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl so its seniors should have plenty of incentive. The venue - Albuquerque, N.M. - favors SDS, too. Not only is it closer for SDS fans to travel to but it's in high altitude and the Aztecs have experience playing there having met New Mexico two seasons ago.
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