Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-14-18 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 205.5 | 125-124 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 205.5) My money is on a much lower-scoring game than the books are expecting in tonight's NBA action between the Celtics and Wizards. Boston will basically have their "B" squad out there for this one, as Irving, Smart and Brown are all out for this game and Horford could be added to the list before tip-off. Without Irving this Celtics team just doesn't have the offensive fire-power to explode offensively. What this team will do is get after it on the defensive side of the ball. Washington is coming off a up-tempo game last night against the Timberwolves, where the two teams combined for 127 points. I just don't see the pace being their for the Wizards in this one, as they not only are in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but they are also playing their 4th game in the last 6 days. Give me the UNDER 205.5! |
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03-07-18 | Magic v. Lakers OVER 226 | 107-108 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 226) I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER in this one. Orlando scored just 80-points in their last game, but shot a miserable 34.1% from the field. Prior to that they had scored 100+ in 12 straight games. I think they are in a prime spot to bounce back offensively against a Lakers team that has given up 100+ in 9 straight. In LA's last game they combined for 211 points with the Blazers and that was with the Lakers shooting just 39.5% from the field and Portland hitting on just 42.2% of their attempts. Prior to that LA had scored at least 111 points 8 straight games. I also think both of these teams being out of the playoff race will have both sides not 100% invested defensively in this one. Give me the OVER 226! |
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03-07-18 | Oregon State v. Washington OVER 139 | 69-66 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 139) I'll gladly take my chances here with Washington and Oregon State going over the mark set here by the books. These two teams combined for 191 points in early February at Oregon State. While the rematch at Washington wasn't as high-scoring, they still combined to put up 156 points. Both teams shot 50% or better from the field in both games. Note the total was right around this same number in both of those games. The books simply aren't willing to budge on their numbers and I think that's a mistake given what we have seen. Give me the OVER 139! |
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03-06-18 | 76ers v. Hornets UNDER 215 | 128-114 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 215) I'll take my chances here with Tuesday's showdown between the Hornets and 76ers going UNDER the mark set by the books. Charlotte is trying to make a late season push for one of the final playoff spots in the east. They looked well on their way with 4 straight wins out of the break, but have since dropped 3 straight. All of those were on the road, including a 99-110 loss at Philadelphia last Friday. The Hornets were in a great position to win that game before collapsing in the 2nd half and should be extremely motivated here for revenge. As for the 76ers, I also think they come out extremely motivated off a loss at Milwaukee. The defensive intensity should be there for both sides and keep this well under the mark. Give me the UNDER 215! |
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03-05-18 | Magic v. Jazz UNDER 207 | 80-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 207) I'll take my chances here with the Jazz and Magic finishing below the mark set by the books. I think the fact that Orlando has scored and allowed 100 or more points in 9 straight games has this total higher than it should be. The Jazz are not only one of the better defensive teams in the league, but they also like to grind it out and slow down the pace. I don't see the Magic dictating the tempo here on the road. At the same time, I think Orlando's defense can hold their own in this game. Utah has been brutal offensively of late, averaging a mere 95.4 ppg over their last 5 games. Give me the UNDER 207! |
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03-01-18 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee UNDER 145 | 64-82 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (UNDER 145) I'll gladly take my chances here with this huge C-USA showdown between Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky going under the mark set by the books. This game figures to decide the C-USA regular-season title, as just 1-game separates the two teams. The Blue Raiders won the first meeting at Western Kentucky 66-62, as the two combined for a mere 128 points with a total of 140. Given what's at stake and just how good these two teams are defensively, I think we see a very similar scoring output as the last meeting. Give me the UNDER 145! |
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02-28-18 | Warriors v. Wizards OVER 226.5 | Top | 109-101 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 226.5) My money is on the Warriors and Wizards flying over the total tonight. Washington continues to surprise people with how well they are playing without All-Star point guard John Wall. They just won on the road last night 107-104 at Milwaukee. It was the 14th straight game that the Wizards eclipsed the 100-point mark. The Warriors haven't scored fewer than 112 points in 7 straight games. A stretch where the OVER has gone 5-2. Golden State continues to play at a frantic pace and with the Wizards in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, they should dictate the tempo here and I believe that will have this one in the 230s and maybe even the 240s. Give me the OVER 226.5! |
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02-26-18 | Pistons v. Raptors UNDER 218.5 | 94-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 218.5) My money is on Monday's NBA total for the Raptors/Pistons game going UNDER the mark set here by the books. I think we are going to see a spirited effort from both teams on the defensive side here. Detroit just allowed 114 in a 16-point loss at Charlotte and head coach Stan Van Gundy called out his team for their lack of effort on defense. As for the Raptors, they just suffered a rare home loss (24-5 at home this season) to the Bucks in their first game out of the break and it was their defense that was to blame. Toronto put up a solid 119 points, but allowed the Bucks to score 122. Given how good the Raptors have been defensively this year (ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency), I think they make life miserable for the Pistons here and keep this well below the number. Give me the UNDER 218.5! |
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02-25-18 | Pelicans v. Bucks OVER 221.5 | 123-121 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 221.5) Since the Pelicans lost DeMarcus Cousins to a season ending injury they have really looked to push the tempo to make up for his absence. In the 11 games since Cousins went down, New Orleans leads the league in pace of play at 105.4. No surprise that the Warriors are second, but Golden State is at just 102.8. That 2.6 difference is impressive as that's the same margin of gap that separates the Warriors from the 10th fastest pace during this stretch. They come in absolutely on fire averaging 129.8 ppg during a 4-game winning streak. Milwaukee has allowed 134 and 119 in their last 2 games. The Bucks are also clicking offensively, as they are averaging over 120 in their last 2 games. I think we could see this get into the 240s. Give me the OVER 221.5! |
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02-24-18 | Celtics v. Knicks UNDER 207.5 | 121-112 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 207.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with Saturday's Atlantic Division showdown between the Celtics and Knicks staying under the mark set here by the books. These two teams have already played 3 times this season and all 3 have been low scoring, with each finishing with 199 or fewer points. I see now reason that trend won't continue. The Celtics weren't exactly locked in defensively going into the All-Star break, but came out and held the Pistons to just 43% shooting on the road in their first game back and now face a Knicks team that is averaging just 97.1 ppg in their last 9 games. A stretch in which they have shot 44% or worse from the field 7 times. Give me the UNDER 207.5! |
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02-22-18 | Knicks v. Magic OVER 212 | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (OVER 212) These are two of the bottom-feeders in the east and I have a hard time seeing either of these teams being all that locked in defensively in the first game out of the break. Keep in mind these two teams aren't good defensive teams to start with. New York is giving up 109 ppg on the road and allowed 112.6 ppg over their final 5 games before the break. Orlando is giving up 110 ppg on the season. I'm also expecting a fast tempo here from both teams, which should have this one flying over the number. Give me the OVER 212! |
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02-22-18 | Nets v. Hornets OVER 214.5 | 96-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 214.5) I'll take my chances with this one going OVER the mark set by the books. I think Charlotte is a sneaky good offensive team and the Hornets come in averaging 107.2 ppg at home this season. They shouldn't have any problem getting that offense going against the Nets, who are allowing 109.9 ppg on the road and I wouldn't be surprised if they struggled to bring the defensive intensity out of the break. As far as the offense is concerned, Brooklyn can put up some points and with Russell now back in the starting lineup, we should see an uptick in their scoring. Charlotte not exactly a great defensive team either, as they give up 106.5 ppg at home and went into the break allowing 112.2 ppg over their final 5 contests. Give me the OVER 214.5! |
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02-20-18 | Boston College v. NC State OVER 157 | 66-82 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 157) I think we see this one fly past the number set here by the books. On one side you have an NC State team that is loaded with scoring options at all 5 positions. Last time out they hung 90 on the road against Wake Forest and come in averaging 87.4 ppg at home this season. BC has scored 80 or more in 4 of their last 6 games, so this is definitely a team that can get it going offensively as well, in large part because they have two of the best guards in the conference. I think they reach that mark tonight against a very poor NC State defense that is giving up 78.4 ppg in ACC play. They are also 7-2 to the OVER at home this season, while the OVER is 9-4-1 in the Eagles 13 conference games. Give me the OVER 157! |
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02-19-18 | Miami-FL v. Notre Dame UNDER 141 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 141) I'll gladly take my chances with Monday's Notre Dame/Miami matchup going UNDER the total here of 141. Both of these teams expected to be sitting better than they are at this point in the season, but each has struggled to cope with the loss of one of their best players. For Miami they lost Bruce Brown. Notre Dame not only lost an NBA talent in Bonzie Colson, but they are also without star freshman D.J. Harvey. Both teams are on the fringe of being considered for the NCAA Tournament and both desperately need this game. I think that will have the defensive intensity all the way up and with Miami's recent shooting struggles and Notre Dame's methodical pace, this game will stay well below the mark. Give me the UNDER 141! |
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02-17-18 | North Carolina v. Louisville OVER 156 | 93-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB PRIME TIME TOTAL DESTROYER (Over 156) I'm expecting plenty of offensive fire-works to push this total well OVER the mark set here by the books. North Carolina comes in having won 4 straight and have scored 82 or more points in all 4 games during this stretch. Louisville has looked great defensively in their last 2 games, but that's come against two of the bottom feeders in the ACC in Georgia Tech and Pitt. The defense hasn't been nearly as good when they have been matchup up with one of the top teams in the ACC. The other key here is pace. Louisville averages just 15.7 seconds of possession when they have the ball, which is the least of any team in the ACC and UNC isn't far behind with the 3rd best mark at 16.4 seconds. Give me the OVER 156! |
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02-17-18 | Providence v. Butler OVER 145.5 | 54-69 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB EARLY BIRD TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 145.5) These two teams combined for just 130 points in their first meeting and I believe it has ceased some value here with the total in the rematch. Butler simply had an off-night offensively in that first meeting, scoring just 60 points on 34.9% shooting. The Bulldogs are averaging 80.3 ppg and shooting 47.7% from the field overall, with an even better 86.7 ppg and 52% from the field at home. Providence just put up 76 in their upset win over Villanova and have now allowed 70+ in 6 of their last 7 games. OVER is 9-1 in Butler's last 10 home games off 3 or more consecutive OVERS and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 home games when revenging a loss as a favorite. Give me the OVER 145.5! |
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02-15-18 | Utah v. Washington UNDER 141 | 70-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 141) I think these two teams will have no problem going UNDER the total set here by the books. Washington is one of the top defensive teams in the Pac-12 (lead the conference in defensive efficiency), so don't get too concerned with the 97-points they just allowed in a loss at Oregon State. If anything that will only have them that more locked in on that side of the ball here against the Utes. While Utah isn't a great defensive team, the Huskies feature one of the least efficient offenses in the Pac-12 and the Utes are a team that likes to slow the game way down (12th in Pac-12 in pace of play). Another key here is Utah's offense relies heavily on the 3-point shot and the Huskies are the best in the conference at defending the 3-pointer. Note these two teams already played back in January and only combined for 132 points with a total of 145.5. Give me the UNDER 141! |
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02-14-18 | St. John's v. DePaul OVER 144 | 77-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 144) My money is on St. John's and DePaul playing another high-scoring game and flying over the total set here by the books. These two teams played back on Jan. 6 and combined for 165 points DePaul put up 91 points on the road in that contest. I don't think it was a fluke that they scored so much. No team plays at a faster pace in the Big East than the Blue Demons. While the Red Storm are ranked a mere 7th in pace in the conference, they are 2nd in average length of possession on offense, which is actually ahead of DePaul. Simply put both teams like to push the tempo. Even if they have an off-night shooting, the pace still gives us a good shot to go over this total. Give me the OVER 144! |
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02-14-18 | Virginia Tech v. Duke OVER 162 | Top | 52-74 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
50* NCAAB ACC TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 162) I got no problem backing the OVER here with Duke and Virginia Tech. These are two of the best offensive teams in the country. The Blue Devils lead the nation in offensive efficiency and the Hokies are sitting at 19th. That combined with the fact that Duke also plays at the fastest pace in the country and should dictate the tempo, should have this flying over the total set here. The Hokies give up 78 on the road and I wouldn't be shocked if they were a bit flat on that side off that big win over in-state rival Virginia. Duke averages 92.6 ppg at home and the only ACC team to keep them under 80 at home is Virginia. The Blue Devils could score 100 here. Give me the OVER 162! |
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02-13-18 | Northwestern v. Rutgers UNDER 124 | 58-67 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 124) I think these two teams will have no problem staying under the mark set by the books. Rutgers features one of the worst offenses in the country, as the Scarlet Knights are averaging just 57.9 ppg and shooting a mere 36% from the field in Big Ten play. Northwestern isn't a whole lot better at a mere 63.5 ppg in conference action. The Wildcats are also not nearly as good on the road, where they are averaging 61.7 ppg on the season (average 70.4 ppg overall). The other big key here is tempo. Northwestern ranks dead last in pace of play in the Big Ten. That grind it out style with Rutgers poor excuse for an offense will make this one of the more unentertaining games of the night. Give me the UNDER 124! |
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02-13-18 | Michigan State v. Minnesota OVER 148.5 | Top | 87-57 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
50* NCAAB BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 148.5) My money is on a much higher-scoring game than what the books are projecting with this total. A big key to this is I don't think Michigan State is going to be locked in defensively here coming off that emotional win at home over Purdue. Keep in mind prior to that highly anticipated matchup with the Boilermakers they combined for 189 points at Iowa. Minnesota plays at the second fastest pace in the Big Ten and are averaging 81 ppg at home this season. The other key here is they aren't a great defensive team, ranking 12th out of the 14 teams in the conference in defensive efficiency. They have allowed 75 or more in each of their last 4 games and 10 of their last 11. The Spartans are averaging 83.1 ppg on the season and 75.1 ppg on the road. Give me the OVER 148.5! |
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02-12-18 | Baylor v. Texas UNDER 134.5 | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 134.5) I think we are getting a great price here on the UNDER in Monday's Big 12 game between Texas and Baylor. These two teams played back in early January and combined for just 129 points. These are two strong defensive teams and given how much this game means for both of these teams, I think we get a huge effort here from both sides. UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 games Baylor has played with a line of +3 to -3 and 7-1 in their last 8 off a win. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Longhorns last 29 games when revenging a loss and 12-1 in their last 13 when revenging a same season loss. Give me the UNDER 134.5! |
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02-11-18 | Michigan v. Wisconsin UNDER 127.5 | 83-72 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 127.5) I'll take a shot here on Sunday's Big Ten matchup between Michigan and Wisconsin finishing below the total set here by the books. Wisconsin is a team that's ideal for UNDER bettors with their grind it out style of play. The Badgers are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging just 67.4 ppg (63.2 in Big Ten play), but only give up 66.5 ppg due to their slow pace of play. The Wolverines have a little more fire-power, but are still only putting up 68.6 ppg in Big Ten play. Like Wisconsin, they want to grind out possessions and are allowing only 63.4 ppg. Add in the early start time here in a Sunday game and I think we get a very boring and low-scoring affair. Give me the UNDER 127.5! |
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02-10-18 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M UNDER 141.5 | Top | 74-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
50* NCAAB SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 141.5) My money is on Saturday's big SEC showdown between Kentucky and Texas A&M finishing UNDER the total. I was on the UNDER in the Wildcats last game against Tennessee and won easily, as the two teams combined for just 120 points with a total of 143.5. I think we see a very similar defensive battle here, as Kentucky has to rely so much on their defense with how limited they are offensively. Texas A&M has been excellent defensively, holding opposing teams to just 39.4% shooting, which is the 8th best mark in the country. Kentucky isn't far behind, as they only allow teams to shoot 40.8% (31st). Both of these teams also rank outside the Top 240 in both 3-point shooting and free throw percentage. I'll take my chances with a total in the 140s given these circumstances every time. Give me the UNDER 141.5! |
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02-10-18 | North Carolina v. NC State OVER 160 | 96-89 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 160) I think the OVER is worth a look here in Saturday's ACC action that has in-state rivals NC State and North Carolina going to battle. These two teams played once already this season and combined for 186 points in the Wolfpack's 95-91 win at UNC. It was the 3 straight meeting in the series that saw the two teams combined for at least 163 points. NC State is averaging 87.5 ppg at home and I think they will have plenty of success here as they catch the Tar Heels off that big win over Duke Thursday. On the flip side of this, North Carolina should put up a big number here as they have scored 80 or more in 5 of their last 7 and NC State isn't a great defensive team. Give me the OVER 160! |
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02-09-18 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 198 | 85-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 198) My money is on the Bucks and Heat finishing well below the total set by the books on Friday. Milwaukee comes in having won 3 straight and are 7-1 over their last 8 games. During this stretch the Bucks are the No. 1 rated team in the league in defensive efficiency. Part of that is the tempo they are playing at, as they rank 25th in pace over this run. Miami has been playing this way all season, as the Heat are 28th in pace and 8th in defensive efficiency. I also think we get a big time defensive effort here from Miami on their home floor having lost 5 straight and allowing 100+ in each of their last 4. Give me the UNDER 198! |
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02-08-18 | SMU v. Houston UNDER 139.5 | 58-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 139.5) I'll gladly take my chances here with Thursday's AAC action between Houston and SMU finishing below the number set here by the books. SMU just recently lost leading scoring Shake Milton (18 ppg) to a hand injury. Keep in mind not that long ago they lost Jarrey Foster, who is second on the team in scoring (13.2 ppg). The Mustangs are a team that likes to grind it out and rely on their defense and come in ranked near the bottom of the country in terms of pace of play. They are going to have to slow things down even more and really lock in defensively if they want to keep it competitive against the Cougars. The big question is can they score enough against a very good Houston defense that is allowing opponents to shoot just 39.5% from the field on the season, which is the 13th best mark in the nation. Give me the UNDER 139.5! |
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02-08-18 | Duke v. North Carolina OVER 165 | 78-82 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
40* DUKE/UNC PRIME TIME MASSACRE (Over 165) I think we are in store for a ton of offensive fireworks in tonight's anticipated showdown between Duke and North Carolina. These are two of the most explosive offenses in the country and both love to push the tempo, which I believe is going to have this game flying over the total set here by the books. Duke is averaging 89.6 ppg and UNC has scored 90+ in two of their last 3 games and are averaging 88.7 ppg at home. I just don't think either team is good enough defensively to slow down the other side and it would take a horrific shooting night by both sides for this not to go over the mark. Give me the OVER 165! |
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02-07-18 | Utah State v. Wyoming OVER 148 | 65-83 | Push | 0 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 148) I'll take my chances here with Wyoming and Utah State eclipsing the total set here by the books. Wyoming features an explosive offense that averages 79.1 ppg (60th) and they are an even better 82.3 ppg at home. A big reason for that is they like to push the tempo, which has also led to some shaky defense, as they are giving up 78.4 ppg. I think Utah State has more than enough fire-power offensively to hang with the Cowboys and I wouldn't be shocked if we saw both teams surpass 80 points to fly over this total. Keep in mind these two played in late January and combined for 162 points and have eclipsed the total in each of their last 4 meetings, with all 4 seeing at least 155 points. Give me the OVER 148! |
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02-07-18 | Nets v. Pistons UNDER 209 | 106-115 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 209) Lot of factors here working in favor of tonight's game between the Pistons and Nets going under the mark set by the books. Detroit has really come alive with the recent trade that landed them Blake Griffin. They have won 4 straight with each of the last 3 coming at home. In those 3 home wins the defense has been excellent and I expect another big effort here as I look for them to ride the momentum they got going into the break. Offensively they have been shooting great, eclipsing 50% in each of their last 2 games, but also only scored 111 points in those two games. That kind of shooting isn't sustainable and chances are we don't see a 3rd straight game over 50%. Brooklyn just played a high-scoring game last night at home against the Rockets, but had really been struggling offensively of late. I could see them coming out flat here and that could easily lead to a blowout and even greater chance this stays under the mark. Give me the UNDER 209! |
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02-07-18 | Virginia v. Florida State UNDER 131 | 59-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 131) I think the number here is high enough that there's a really good chance this game stays UNDER the mark. Anytime Virginia is involved in a game you have to expect a low scoring game. The average score in their games this season is just 121 points and it's even lower at 117.4 in conference play. The fact that FSU comes in averaging 91.2 ppg on their home floor is definitely playing into this number. I just don't see the Seminoles coming close to that mark against Virginia, who hasn't allowed more than 64 points in a single ACC game. What people will overlook with FSU is how good a team they are defensively. Opponents are shooting just 40.9% against them, which is the 39th best mark in the country. They should be able to hold their own against the Cavaliers offense, who like to grind each possession on the offensive side of the ball. Give me the UNDER 131! |
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02-06-18 | Tennessee v. Kentucky UNDER 141 | 61-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
40* TENN/KENTUCKY PRIME-TIME MASSACRE (Under 141) I'll gladly take my chances here with Tuesday's SEC showdown between Kentucky and Tennessee finishing below the total of 141. For starters, the UNDER is 15-5-2 in the last 22 meetings overall in the series and is 9-1-2 in the last 12 games played at Kentucky. One of the big strengths of this Volunteers team is their 3-point shooting. They average 8 made 3-pointers a game and are shooting 39.8% from long distance. That plays right into the strength of the Kentucky defense, which is 3rd in the country at defending the 3-pointer, holding teams to just 28.9% from long-distance (even better at 27.1% at home). The other big key here is the Vols are very strong defensively, holding teams to just 40.6% shooting from the field. They matchup well here with a Kentucky offense that doesn't have a lot of outside shooting. Note they only scored 65 points in the first meeting vs the Vols and shot 46% from the field. Give me the UNDER 141! |
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02-06-18 | UCF v. Cincinnati UNDER 122.5 | 40-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 122.5) These two teams played UCF back on Jan. 16th and combined for a whopping 87 points in a 49-38 Cincinnati win. Not a big surprise given how good both of these teams are defensively. The Bearcats are 2nd in the country, allowing just 56.8 ppg and are holding opponents to just 36.6% shooting, which is the 2nd best mark. The Knights are 3rd in the nation, giving up just 60.6 ppg and are holding opponents to just 38.6% shooting (5th). Chances are they will score more than the 87 points they combined for in the first meeting this season, but I don't think we see a big enough spike here to where they eclipse the mark here. UNDER is a ridiculous 40-15 in Cincinnati's last 55 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 9-2 in the Knights last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. UNDER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in the series. Give me the UNDER 122.5! |
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01-30-18 | Magic v. Rockets OVER 222 | 107-114 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 222) Houston is going to be without Trevor Ariza and more than likely Chris Paul. I don't think losing those two is going slow down this offense at all against Orlando. The Magic have been right there with the Cavs and Suns in terms of the worst defensive play of late and I don't see them keeping this explosive Houston offense in check, especially when you consider that Magic struggle to defense the 3-point line and no team shoots more 3's than the Rockets. These two played at the very beginning of this month and the Rockets scored 116 without James Harden (shot 44% from 3). The two teams did only combine for 114 points, but that was with Orlando shooting a mere 38.5% from the field. No Paul and Ariza takes away from the defensive mentality of Houston and I just don't see this being a game they are going to be all that motivated to lockdown the Magic. Give me the OVER 222. |
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01-29-18 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin UNDER 131 | 74-63 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 131) These two teams played at Nebraska back on 1/9 and combined for 122 points with a similar total (132) to what we have here. I don't see why we shouldn't expect a similar defensive battle in the rematch. One of the reasons I think we aren't seeing a lower total is the fact that Nebraska comes in off a game against Iowa where the two teams combined for 182 points. That's more of a result of who they played than anything. Iowa is a team that opens the game way up and offers little to no resistance on defense. Prior to that contest the Cornhuskers hadn't scored more than 74 in 9 straight games. They also have had struggles offensively on the road in Big Ten play, scoring 62 or fewer in 4 of 6 road games. Wisconsin only scored 67 against Iowa and are averaging a mere 62.8 ppg in Big Ten Play. Key here is I think the Badgers play hard defensively at home and that should put us in a great spot to cash this ticket. Give me the UNDER 131! |
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01-26-18 | 76ers v. Spurs UNDER 202 | 97-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 202) I think we are going to see an offensive struggle tonight in San Antonio. The Spurs have had no choice but to slow things way down and rely on their defense to win games without Leonard. San Antonio ranks 29th in pace, a mere 17th in offensive efficiency and are 2nd in defensive efficiency. They lead the league, holding opponents to just 97.4 ppg (Celtics are the only other team holding opponents to fewer than 101.5 ppg. 76ers play at a little faster tempo, but are very similar otherwise, as they are 16th in offensive efficiency and 3rd in defensive efficiency. With the game being played in San Antonio, the Spurs should be able to force Philadelphia to play at their pace and I believe that's going to make it tough for either team to put up a lot of points. Note the 76ers recently played at Boston and that came finished with a mere 169 points. Give me the UNDER 202! |
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01-26-18 | Clippers v. Grizzlies OVER 211 | 109-100 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 211) With all the injuries that each of these teams are dealing with I think people just assume they don't have enough talent available to be any good offensively. Over the last 15 games these have been two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league with Memphis ranking 10th and the Clippers 5th. Defense has been optional for the Grizzlies and they come in having allowed 100+ in 3 straight games and face a Clippers offense that has scored 100+ in 18 straight. Only twice during this stretch has LA held an opponent under 100 points and in their last 3 they haven't allowed less than 113. I just think given how these two teams are playing this total is more than low enough to take a shot. Give me the OVER 211! |
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01-25-18 | Wizards v. Thunder UNDER 214 | Top | 112-121 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 214) These are two teams that can play at an elite level when they are locked in, but both have had their struggles with consistency and playing with that same energy against sub-par teams. I think we get a big time effort here from both sides, as their's a lot of star power and the game will be televised nationally on TNT. Washington averages 106.5 ppg on the season, but just 102.6 on the road, where they only shoot 44%. OKC only gives up 100.0 ppg at home and outside of that 148-point outburst against the Cavs, the offense hasn't been anything special. In fact, they have worse than 43% from the field in 4 of their last 6 games, including a mere 42.6% in their last game at home against the Nets. Give me the UNDER 214! |
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01-23-18 | Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 209 | 107-108 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Under 209) It's no secret that the Celtics are one of the leagues best defensive teams. What I think a lot of people don't realize is how good the Lakers have been playing defensively here of late. In the Lakers last 8 games they rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency (Celtics are No. 1). With this game being in front of a national audience on TNT, I think that only adds to the intensity both teams come out with on the defensive side of the ball. It's also worth noting that the Lakers don't play at near the frantic pace that we are use to without Ball in the lineup. What also gets overlooked is how much the Celtics are struggling offensively. Over their last 15 games only the Nets are worse in offensive efficiency. Give me the UNDER 209! |
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01-23-18 | Kings v. Magic OVER 214 | 105-99 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 214) The OVER is worth a look here in Tuesday's NBA action that has the Magic hosting the Kings. Orlando isn't a great defensive team and rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency over their last 8 games. I don't see them being all that interested in playing defense against a bad team like the Kings. This is also a flat spot for them defensively off that upset win at Boston. Magic have allowed 112.4 ppg in their last 25 off an upset win as an underdog. In Sacramento's last 6 games they have allowed 120 or more 3 different times and don't figure to be playing a whole lot of defense tonight in the second game of a back-to-back on the road after last night's game in Charlotte. Orlando's offense has been much better of late and they are average 107.2 over their last 5. Both teams also rank in the Top 10 in terms of pace of play in their last 8 games. I think these two fly over the mark here. Give me the OVER 214! |
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01-16-18 | Wolves v. Magic OVER 217 | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 217) Over their last 10 games, no team has a worse defensive efficiency rating the Magic and that's why I really like tonight's game against the Timberwolves to fly over this total. That horrible Orlando defense will be facing one of the most efficient offenses in the league in Minnesota, who is averaging 108.8 ppg and shooting 48% from the field on the season. T-Wovles have scored 116 or more in 4 of their last 5 with the only exception being 104-point outing against the Thunder in a blowout win. I know the defense has been better for Minnesota, but I don't think we get a big effort on that side of the ball playing on the road against a bad team, especially with how easy it figures to be for them offensively and the fact they have a much bigger game on deck against the Rockets. Orlando just put up 119 on the road against the Wizards and are averaging 112 ppg over their last 4. I think both teams hit the 110 mark, which is more than enough to eclipse this total. Give me the OVER 217! |
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01-06-18 | Pelicans v. Wolves OVER 218 | 98-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 218) The Timberwolves were just held to 84 points in last night's game against the Celtics. Minnesota simply didn't have it and you have to credit Boston's defense, which is arguably the best in the league when they want to be. I look for the Timberwolves to return to form here at home. Minnesota is averaging 108.9 ppg at home and will be facing a Pelicans defense that is one of the worst in the league, giving up 110.9 ppg. On the flip side of this, I also look for a big offensive night from New Orleans, as they come in averaging 113.6 ppg over their last 5. I know the Timberwolves have played better defensively of late, I just don't see a big effort on that side of the ball with them playing on no rest and their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the OVER 218! |
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01-01-18 | Georgia v. Oklahoma UNDER 61 | 54-48 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
40* OKLAHOMA/GEORGIA ROSE BOWL NO BRAINER (Under 61) I think it's worth a shot here to take the UNDER 61 in Monday's New Year's semifinal game between Oklahoma and Georgia. I know Oklahoma put up some ridiculous offensive numbers this year, averaging 44.9 ppg and 583 yards/game, but let's not forget about what conference they play in. There's only a few teams in the Big 12 that play any defense and even those teams aren't great. None of which are anywhere close to what Georgia brings on that side of the ball. The Bulldogs had one bad showing all season, giving up 40 on the road to Auburn, but that was clearly not a focus Georgia team (came into that game with big heads after being No. 1 and starting out 9-0). They proved that was a fluke by completely shutting down Auburn in the SEC Championship Game, holding them to 7-points and just 259 total yards. Add in the extra time to prepare and I think this defense is going to make life tough on Baker Mayfield and the Sooners attack. Keep in mind the closest defense in terms of talent that Oklahoma faced was Ohio State and while they beat the Buckeyes, they only scored 31 points. That game is also a good sign of what the Sooners defense is capable of, as they limited the Buckeyes to just 16 points and completely shutdown Ohio State's running game, limiting them to just 104 yards on 37 attempts. I'm not saying they will completely shutdown Georgia's rushing attack, but I think they play well on that side. I also think the Bulldogs are going to look to grind out possessions and help their defense by keeping them off the field. History is also on our side. UNDER is 7-1 in Oklahoma last 8 vs an SEC opponent, 7-1 in their last 8 neutral site games, 5-1 in their last 6 bowl games and 7-2 in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 20-7 in Georgia's last 27 vs a team with a winning record, 7-3 in their last 10 bowl games, and 6-2 in their last 8 neutral site games. Give me the UNDER 61! |
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas OVER 60.5 | 16-33 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
40* TEXAS BOWL BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Over 60.5) I think we are in store for a shootout tonight in the Texas Bowl between the Longhorns and Tigers. While Texas had one of the better defenses in the Big 12, they will be going up against arguably the hottest offense in the country to end the year in Missouri, who scored 45 or more points in each of their final 6 games. Keep in mind that Texas is down several key players on defense, including linebacker Malik Jefferson, defensive lineman Chris Nelson and two of their top defensive backs in DeShon Elliot and Holtin Hill. I just feel that's going to make it really hard for the Longhorns to keep this Missouri offense in check. On the flip side of this, Texas has a very capable offense and while they weren't as good as many expected in Tom Herman's first year, the extra practice time leading up to this game could have only helped them on that side of the ball. The bigger key here is that Missouri's defense is atrocious. The Tigers gave up 33.4 ppg and 476 ypg away from home this season and that was with playing a bunch of bad offensive teams. In their finale against Arkansas, who I don't think is as good as Texas offensively, they allowed the Razorbacks to put up 45 points and nearly 450 yards. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams scored 40+ in this game. Give me the OVER 60.5! |
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12-26-17 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 212 | 115-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 212) These two teams played a little less than two weeks ago and combined for 224 points in a 115-109 Bulls win at Milwaukee. I think we see a very similar type of offensive game here. Chicago only scored 92 in their last game at Boston, but that was a brutal spot for the Bulls. Prior to that Chicago had scored 110 or more in 4 straight games and have also allowed 109 or more in 4 of their last 5. This team is really shooting the 3-ball well and like to push the pace, which is ideal for high-scoring games. Milwaukee's offense has really improved since they made that trade for Bledsoe and they come in having scored 100 or more in 15 straight games. While the offense has been rolling, the defense hasn't been great, as they have also allowed 100 or more points in 11 straight games, giving up 111 or more in 5 of their last 6. Give me the OVER 212! |
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12-25-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 206.5 | Top | 111-103 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 206.5) It doesn't matter when these two teams play each other, the intensity level is going to be very high. It's only going to be that much more intense with this being a nationally televised game on Christmas Day, which is also the first time these two teams have played since they went to a Game 7 in last year's playoffs. The Celtics are only giving up 98.2 ppg and can be elite on that side when they are locked in, which I have to believe they will be today. Washington is also a better defensive team than they get credit for. Their biggest problem is not showing up to play against bad teams. They lost that Game 7 last year and are going to give it everything they have here. Give me the UNDER 206.5! |
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12-23-17 | Bucks v. Hornets UNDER 210.5 | 106-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 210.5) I'll take my chances here with these two teams going UNDER the total set by the books in Saturday's rematch. The Bucks and Hornets played last night in Milwaukee in a closely contested game, in which the Bucks went on a 9-0 run to close out the game and win 109-104. Any time you have a home-and-home like this, more times than not it trends to being a much lower scoring game in the second meeting, as the two teams are now very familiar with the sets the other team is trying to run. That's not the only factor here favoring a lower-scoring game. Charlotte lost Dwight Howard early in that contest and then in the 4th quarter, their best player, Kemba Walker, was forced out of action. Both are listed as questionable, but I would be shocked if either plays. Even if they both somehow get on the court, I still think we see these two teams go well below the mark here. Give me the UNDER 210.5! |
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12-23-17 | Colts v. Ravens UNDER 41 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NFL SATURDAY BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Under 41) First things first, conditions aren't going to be ideal for scoring in Baltimore on Saturday. While temperatures are expected to be a modest 60 or so degrees, it's going to be windy, with winds expected around 15 mph throughout. Not to mention a 50% chance of rain. That's definitely a plus, but I also think these two teams could struggle to eclipse 40 points in ideal conditions. Let's start with the Colts offense. I'm not quite sure how they are going to move the ball against this Ravens defense. Indy's offensive line is a mess. They lost their best lineman in center Ryan Kelly a couple weeks ago and won't have starting right tackle Denzelle Good for this one. The Ravens rank in the top 10 in sacks and in pass defense. They will force feed Frank Gore, but I don't know how much success they will have, as Baltimore is equally as good against the run. It would not surprise me the least if the Ravens pitched a shutout, though I'm sure Indy will find a way to put some points on the board, just not very many. Note they have scored 17 or fewer in 5 straight. I'm not just banking on the Colts not being able to score, but I'm counting on Indy's defense to play with some pride. If they don't, this will have a hard time staying under. With that said, I'll take my chances they come to play. This is a team knew their season was a lost cause with the Andrew Luck injury. This is just another chance for them to get a win and I love the fact that they are getting zero respect as a near two touchdown underdog. It's also worth noting the Colts have had a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. Baltimore's offense has been better, but there's no need for them to run up the score if things get out of hand, as they have bigger things in mind than just this game. Give me the UNDER 41! |
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12-21-17 | Bulls v. Cavs OVER 214 | Top | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
50* NBA EASTERN CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 214) I've been on the Bulls a lot here of late (6x during their current 8-game ATS winning streak). I strongly considered taking them here as a double-digit dog, but I wouldn't be shocked if they struggled to keep this one competitive. A lot of their success of late has come against either bad teams or teams missing key players. They are also playing on no rest after playing last night and are catching the Cavs off a loss. With that said, I see a ton of value here in tonight's total. Cleveland is averaging 111.2 ppg and while the Bulls have been decent defensively during their run, again it's been a favorable stretch of opponents. I think we could see the Cavs put up 120+ here and that should be more than enough to push this well over the mark. Note the Bulls are giving up 110.5 ppg on the road on the season. The other key here is Chicago's offense is playing at a completely different level than they were to start the year. Dunn is a major factor and they have some legit 3-point shooting with Mirotic and Portis healthy. Bulls have averaged 111 ppg over their last 5, while shooting 48% from the field. I see a shootout in Cleveland tonight. Give me the OVER 214! |
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12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 48.5) These two teams played in Week 12 at Atlanta and combined for 54 points with Fitzpatrick under center for the Bucs. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense did a lot of the heavy lifting in that one, scoring 34 points on over 500 yards of offense. Since that game Tampa Bay has combined for 46 with the Packers with Hundley at QB and 45 at home against the Lions with a banged up Stafford. Even with the home field edge in a prime time game, I don't think this Bucs defense is going to have an answer for this Falcons offensive attack, which is going to be ready to roll after playing two of the better defenses in the league the last two weeks in the Vikings and Saints. It's also worth noting that Winston is back in the lineup for the Bucs and has looked good outside of some turnovers and I expect him to have a big game here. I think we could see both teams eclipse 30-points in this one. Give me the OVER 48.5! |
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12-16-17 | Oregon v. Boise State OVER 61 | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 45 h 34 m | Show | |
40* LAS VEGAS BOWL TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 61) The Ducks finished the year averaging a modest 36.7 ppg, which was the 18th best mark in the country. What gets overlooked is that they played 5 games without starting quarterback Justin Herbert. In the 5 games Herbert played in to start the season before getting hurt, Oregon averaged 49.6 ppg. In the 5 games he missed, they averaged 15 ppg and that was with a 41-point outburst against Utah. Herbert returned for the final two games and they scored 48 on Arizona and 69 against Oregon State. This isn’t just a good offense with Herbert, it’s one of the best in the nation. I also want to point out that I don’t Taggert leaving is going to hurt the production of the offense. They aren’t going to change up anything on that side of the ball. Offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal has been named the new head coach. Boise State’s defense finished with great numbers, ranking 23rd in total defense (336.6 ypg) and 35th in points allowed (22.5 ppg), but they played a lot of bad offensive teams in the MWC. The best offense they faced in conference play was Colorado State and while they won the game, they gave up 52 to the Rams. This team also allowed 42 to Virginia and 47 to Washington State in their two step-up games outside of conference. Oregon’s defense is greatly improved, but they still have their problems stopping the pass. The Ducks were a mere 76th vs the pass, allowing an average of 230.3 ypg though the air. The strength of the Boise State offense is their passing attack, which averaged 254.5 ypg (44th) behind quarterback Brett Rypien, who threw for just over 2,500 yards, completed 63.5% of his attempts and posted a 14-4 TD-INT ratio. The offense could also be forced to throw even more than they would like, as star running back Alexander Mattison is questionable to play. That would be a plus, as we don’t want Boise trying to eat up the clock on the ground. I think there’s potential here for this to get well into the 70’s and possibly even higher, which makes this an easy play given where this total has been set. Give me the OVER 61! |
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12-14-17 | Broncos v. Colts OVER 40.5 | 25-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
40* BRONCOS/COLTS TNF TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 40.5) I think we are simply seeing a bit of an overreaction to the low-scoring games these two teams just played in. Denver’s defense was sensational against the Jets. Not only did the shutout New York, they limited the Jets to just 100 total yards and 6 first downs. The Colts on the other hand played in a game against the Bills where the two teams combined for a mere 20-points with 6 of those coming in overtime. Though that was in blizzard-like conditions so that's nothing to read into. Denver’s strong showing at home against the Jets didn’t surprise me. The Broncos had basically hit rock bottom the previous week in a 9-35 los at Miami. I expected them to come out and play one of their better games and they did just that. I just don’t think we are going to get that same kind of effort here on the road against the Colts. Not only is there little to get excited about with playing Indy, but it’s extremely difficult for teams to play up to their potential defensively in these Thursday night games. They simply don’t have enough time to recover with just a 3-day break. Keep in mind that prior to last week’s shutout against the Jets, Denver’s opponents had scored 20 or more against them in 8 straight games. Not to mention the Broncos are giving up a staggering 30.5 ppg on the road this season. So while the Colts have been struggling to score, I think we see them have a decent showing here at home. Same thing goes for the Denver offense, who should be able to build off last week’s strong showing against a wore down and not very good Colts defense. Indy is also a team that is completely out of the playoff picture and are going to try and get a lot more young guys on the field to evaluate for next year. Let’s also not forget that this game is being played in perfect conditions with it being in a dome. That’s another big factor here that favors a high-scoring game. I just don’t think it’s asking a lot for these two teams to eclipse this number. Give me the OVER 40.5! |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 48.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48.5) I think the value here is on the total and this one going under the mark of 48.5. These two teams just played two weeks ago in New England and combined for 52 points, but I think there's a big edge here for these two defenses having just played the opposing offense. Miami also is a much better defensive team at home and are catching a huge break with Gronkowski being suspended. Keep in mind it was the Patriots who did the heavy lifting in terms of the total in that game two weeks ago, as they had 35 points. The defense held Miami to just 17 points and I think we see the Dolphins struggle to eclipse that mark here. Give me the UNDER 48.5! |
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12-07-17 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 208.5 | 112-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 208.5) I think the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. Houston is right there with the Warriors as the most explosive offensive in the NBA. All those concerns about how Chris Paul and James Harden can coexist are an afterthought, as Paul has really fit in nicely. Houston comes in having scored at least 117 points in 5 straight games and as good as Utah can be defensively, they aren't as strong on that side of the ball on the road. I think the Rockets will put up another big number here. However, the key here is the Jazz are playing a lot better on offense than expected, as they have gone to a more up-tempo attack led by rookie Donovan Mitchell, who is averaging 31 ppg on 53.3% shooting in December. While Utah only scored 94 last time out against the Hornets, they had scored 100 or more in each of their previous 6 and 9 of their last 10 overall. Give me the OVER 208.5! |
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12-02-17 | Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 48.5 | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 45 h 36 m | Show |
50* NCAAF SEC CONF CHAMP GAME OF THE MONTH (Under 48.5) As dominant as Auburn was in that first meeting against Georgia, I don’t love backing teams in rematch games, especially when the first win came at home. I also feel like the Bulldogs didn’t given the Tigers their full attention, as the intensity level just wasn’t where it needed to be. I don’t see that happening this time around and could honestly see this one going either way. If I had to take a side I would lean towards Georgia getting the points, but I think the best value in this matchup is the UNDER. For starters, I don’t see Auburn putting up 40 points on the Bulldogs in the rematch. That was one of only two games all season where Georgia allowed more than 20 points. The only other exception being the 28-points they allowed to Missouri and that was a bit of a fluke. Missouri scored their first touchdown off a turnover where they got the ball on the Georgia 5-yard line, had two 63-yard touchdown passes, scored a garbage touchdown late with the Bulldogs up 47-21. Simply put, the game against Auburn the first time around was as bad as the defense could have played and I believe a big part of that was they showed up thinking it was going to be another easy win. You also have to factor in that Georgia’s defense will be better prepared for Auburn’s offense the second time around. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Bulldogs hold the Tigers under 20 points. As for the Georgia offense, I don’t know that it’s going to be a whole lot easier the second time around against this Auburn defense. The Tigers completely shutdown the Bulldogs running game, holding Georgia to just 46 yards on 32 attempts, which comes out to 1.4 yards/carry. At the same time, even if Georgia has more success running the ball, it doesn’t mean they are going to score a ton of points. Auburn just allowed 209 rushing yards to Alabama and held the Tide to just 14 points. I just don’t see either offense being able to get going to to the point to push this over the mark. Keep in mind that we could have a 27-21 final score and that still wouldn’t be enough. Personally I think it’s going to be more like 22-17, which gives us plenty of breathing room. Give me the UNDER 48.5.! |
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12-01-17 | Stanford v. USC UNDER 58 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
50* STANFORD/USC VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 58) These two teams combined for 66 points in the first meeting, easily surpassing the total of 55. Now we are getting a full 3-points more in the rematch in what's easily the biggest game of the season for both teams. I think the defenses have a huge edge when facing a team for a second time and I look for this to turn into more of a defensive battle. Stanford is certainly better on defense right now than they were early on in the season when these two teams played. It's also worth noting that while Stanford did get an extra week to prepare for that game, they were coming off that long trip to Australia. I'm pretty confident they aren't going to let USC run all over them like they did in the first meeting. Keep in mind in their last game they held a potent Notre Dame rushing attack to just 154 yards on 44 attempts, which comes out to a 3.5 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, I also think USC's defense is going to play extremely well here. While K.J. Costello has improved the Cardinal's passing attack, it's still not very good. Stanford finished the year 97th against the pass, averaging just 183.7 ypg. Most of their offense in the first meeting came from running back Bryce Love, who had 160 yards on 17 attempts. While Love can still be electric at times, he hasn't been the same guy since hurting his ankle a few weeks back. Not to mention, the Trojans have had two weeks to put together a game plan to make sure he's accounted for at all time. I don't see either team getting to 30 points in this game, as I think we see a final score here around 27-23, giving us plenty of breathing room. Give me the UNDER 58! |
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11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens UNDER 39.5 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
40* NFL MONDAY NIGHT TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 39.5) I just don't see these two teams doing a whole lot offensively in this game. Baltimore had a stretch where they were hit hard with injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but they got a lot of those guys back and are back to being an elite defensive team, which is evident by the 2 shutouts they have had in their last 3 games. I just don't see a Tom Savage run Houston offense being able to do much of anything, as the Ravens should be able to take away the running game and force Savage to beat them with his arm, something I don't think he's capable of doing on the road. The other key here is that the Texans are still an above-average defensive teams and Baltimore is one of the worst offenses in the league. The Ravens rank dead last in passing offense, averaging just 165.2 ypg through the air and have rushed for less than 75 yards in 3 of their last 4. Not to mention the Texans run D has been on point of late, as they are giving up just 69.3 ypg over their last 4. That puts even more pressure on Baltimore's anemic passing attack and I just don't see them doing a lot. I think both teams could struggle to score 17 in this one. Give me the UNDER 39.5! |
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11-25-17 | Indiana v. Purdue UNDER 52 | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 52) Both Indiana and Purdue go into the final game sitting at 5-6 with the winner becoming bowl eligible and the loser likely done for the year. That basically makes this a playoff game and I think that this total is way to high. Not only does the magnitude of the game favor a lower-scoring affair, but these are two teams that aren't all that great offensively and really strong on the defensive side of the ball. Purdue comes in ranked 82nd in the country in total offense, averaging right around 385 yards/game and Indiana is 81st at 388 yards/game. Defensively, the Boilermakers are 34th in the country, giving up just 360 yards/game and the Hoosiers are 22nd allowing only 330 yards/game. UNDER is 9-2 in Purdue's last 11 games and 7-1 in their last 8 against a conference opponent. UNDER is also 8-1 in Indiana's last 9 when playing a road game after their last game was at home. Give me the UNDER 52! |
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11-13-17 | Dolphins v. Panthers UNDER 38.5 | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 42 m | Show | |
40* DOLPHINS/PANTHERS MNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 38.5) I'm willing to take my chances here with the UNDER on Monday Night Football when the Dolphins visit the Panthers. Not a lot of explanation needed to why we should expect to see a low-scoring game, as we have two of the NFL's best defenses facing off against two of the worst offenses in a prime time matchup. Carolina leads the NFL in total defense, giving up just 274 ypg, while Miami is 10th, allowing just 315 ypg. The Panthers are only scoring 18.7 ppg and the Dolphins just 14.5 ppg (9 ppg on the road). UNDER is 20-8 in the Dolphins last 28 road games when they are listed as a dog of 7.5 to 14 points and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 vs the NFC. UNDER is also 31-13 in the Panthers last 44 home games with a total of 38.5 to 52 and 13-1 in their last 14 when coming off a win by 3 points or less. Take the UNDER! |
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11-11-17 | Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47 | 17-40 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 45 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (UNDER 47) I'm willing to take my chances here that we don't see enough offense from either side to push this one over the mark of 47. As good as these two teams have been offensively at times this season, most of that success hasn't come against a top tier defense like they each will be facing on Saturday. Georgia is 3rd in the country giving up just 11.7 ppg and are 4th in total defense, allowing just 245.1 ypg. Auburn is right on their heels, as the Tigers are 9th, giving up only 16.9 ppg and are 14th in total defense, allowing 307.2 ypg. The reason I say that these two offenses won't come close to their season averages (both come in right round 40 ppg), is we have seen each of them struggle when matched up against a top tier defense. Auburn's came against Clemson, where managed just 6-points and 117 total yards. Georgia's came against Notre Dame, where they totaled just 20 points. The other key here is that both of these teams are built offensively around the running game and that plays right into the strength of these two defenses. The Bulldogs are giving up just 3.1 yards/carry against the run and Auburn is allowing only 3.3 yards/carry. The clock should be running constantly and I also think both teams could struggle to finish off drives with touchdowns, a perfect recipe for a low-scoring game. Give me the UNDER 47! |
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11-08-17 | Lakers v. Celtics UNDER 210.5 | Top | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MOMEY TOP PLAY (Under 210.5) The Lakers come into this game having scored 107 or more in each of their last 4 games, but only one of those came on the road and that was against a Blazers team that was playing on no rest after a grueling overtime loss the night before against the Jazz. Speaking of Utah, that's the best defense the Lakers have faced away from home and they managed just 81 points in a game that featured just 177 combined points. Boston allowed 107 in their last game at Atlanta, but that was a major letdown spot with the Celtics playing on no rest and the Hawks being one of the worst teams in the league. Prior to that Boston had held 8 straight teams to 94 or fewer points and that includes the likes of the Bucks, 76ers, Spurs and Thunder. Lakers aren't a great team, but teams are gearing up to play them because of all the Lonzo Ball drama with his dad running his mouth. I look for the Celtics to really come out looking to make a statement here against LA. At the same time, I think the Lakers will bring the defensive intensity here and they are better on that side than people think, as they have held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 102 or fewer points. Give me the UNDER 210.5! |
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11-05-17 | Broncos v. Eagles UNDER 42 | 23-51 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 42) Denver’s defense has been playing at an elite level all season and if not for the poor play they have got out of the quarterback position, they would likely have one of the best records in the league. The Broncos lead the league in total defense, giving up just 261 yards/game. Carolina is the only team that’s even close to them, as the Panthers are allowing 264 ypg. The next best is the Vikings at 282.1 ypg. I believe they are more than capable of shutting down Carson Wentz and this high-powered Eagles offense. I believe the loss of star left tackle Jason Peters is going to play a big role in this game, as it leaves Philadelphia short-handed against arguably the best pass rusher in the league in Von Miller. At the same time, I think it’s going to be equally as hard on the Broncos offense to put points on the board. Denver has benched starting quarterback Trevor Siemian and will be replacing him with Brock Osweiler. The Broncos believe that we will see a different Osweiler than in previous seasons, but I’m not buying it, especially against the Eagles. A big reason for Siemian’s struggles is he’s had no time to throw the ball and that struggling offense line is going to have their hands full against one of the best front sevens in the league. UNDER is an impressive 9-1 in the Broncos last 10 games against a team from the NFC and 13-4 in their last 17 after playing their previous game on the road. UNDER is also 40-18 in the Eagles last 58 games after scoring 30 or more in their previous contest. Give me the UNDER 42! |
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11-03-17 | Raptors v. Jazz UNDER 196 | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Under 196) Last time out the Jazz won 112-103 at home over the Blazers, which saw them go OVER the total set of 191.5. The thing is the OVER didn't come until overtime, as the two were tied at 92-92 at the end of regulation. That's now 6 straight games where the final scored in Utah games has been 193 or less at the end of regulation. Even with that extra time, the Jazz are still only allowing 91.2 ppg at home. It's not just Utah's defense that makes them such a great team to back the UNDER with, it's the fact that they play at such a slow pace, the slowest in the league. Toronto is a pretty good defensive team in their own right, ranking in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. The Raptors also average nearly 5 points fewer on the road than they do at home. Give me the UNDER 196! |
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11-01-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 48 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 48) I tend to lean towards lower-scoring games in a rivalry matchup like this and that's just the tip of the iceberg to why I like this one staying under 48 points. Western Michigan is down their starting quarterback and will be sending out a true freshmen for his first collegiate start. The Broncos were already a run first team and will be even more so here. I also think that allows the Chippewas defense to load the box early and force the freshman to beat him with his arm. On the flip side of this, Central Michigan has struggled to run the ball and don't figure to get it going here. They aren't anywhere close to as good offensively as they looked in their last game against Ball State and will struggle here just to get first downs. Give me the UNDER 48! |
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10-28-17 | Mississippi State v. Texas A&M UNDER 55.5 | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 55.5) I think the value here is with the total and this one going UNDER the mark set by the books. I’ve been on the UNDER in each of the last 5 games involving the Bulldogs and it’s cashed 4 out of 5. Last year’s meeting saw zero made field goals. Every time a team scored it was a touchdown and yet it still finished with only 63 points. I think with the way these two teams matchup this season, we see even less scoring and a few more stops in the red zone by both sides. Mississippi State’s defense comes in ranked 8th in the country, giving up just 271 yards/game. They are giving up just 3.6 yards/rush and opposing quarterbacks have completed just 53.5% of their attempts against them. Texas A&M’s offense took a big hit in the opener when they lost starting quarterback Nick Starkel and have had to turn to true freshman Kellen Mond. While Mond is a decent threat running the ball, he’s not the best passer. He was just 8 of 24 for 180 yards last week against Florida and now faces a Bulldogs defense that is 2nd in the country, allowing just 153.6 ypg. Aggies have scored 24 or less in each of their last 3 and I think that trend continues here. The key here is that with Texas A&M should be able to keep Mississippi State’s offense from going off. The Aggies have had two full weeks to prepare for Nick Fitzgerald and the Bulldogs offense. They are playing with confidence, should get a boost from a rowdy home crowd and matchup well. Mississippi State’s offense is built around their running game and that plays into the strength of the Aggies defense, which is 38th against the run (135.3 ypg) compared to 92nd vs the pass (245.1 ypg). UNDER is 33-18 in the Bulldogs last 51 off a win by 17 or more and 9-1 in their last 10 after back-to-back wins by 17+ points. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Aggies last 4 vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 in their last 5 off a bye week. Give me the UNDER 55.5 |
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10-26-17 | Clippers v. Blazers UNDER 211.5 | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 211.5) *Analysis Coming* |
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10-24-17 | Knicks v. Celtics UNDER 208 | 89-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (UNDER 208) New York's offense is one of the worst in the NBA and wouldn't be shocked if the Celtics held them to 90 or less here. Boston has started out just 1-2, so there will be no overlooking the Knicks at home tonight and while the defense should have no problem keeping New York in check, the Celtics are still trying to find themselves offensively after losing Hayward. They are also still missing Marcus Morris and likely without Marcus Smart, who didn't practice yesterday. Knicks should give enough effort here against a division rival to keep Boston from scoring too much to push this over the number. Give me the UNDER 208! |
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10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 49.5 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 49.5) The first meeting between these two division rivals saw a combined 47 points, but that was with both teams recording defensive touchdowns. There were also a few other scores that were aided by a short field off a turnover (6 turnovers in the game). Both teams know what to expect from the opponent and I see no reason why the total here is higher than the output they had in the first meeting. You get a lot of talk about these two offenses, but both are rock-solid on the defensive side of the ball. Add in the extra incentive to play well on MNF and this should have no problem staying under 50 points. Give me the UNDEr 49.5! |
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10-21-17 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State UNDER 54.5 | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 54.5) I’ve played the UNDER each of the last 4 weeks in Mississippi State games and have won 3 of them. I again see a ton of value with this total and these two teams going under the mark. Don’t be fooled by the 40-points that Kentucky put on the board in their last game against Missouri, as the Tigers are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. The 34-points that they allowed to Missouri was also out of character, as they hadn’t allowed more than 28 in each of their first 5 and held 4 of those to 20 or less. It was also the first time the Wildcats had scored more than 27-points in a single game this season. Kentucky’s offense comes in ranked 107th in the country at just 349 ypg. I don’t see them having much luck here against a Bulldogs defense that has looked great outside of two games against Auburn and Georgia. Even with those poor showings, they are still 8th in the nation, giving up a mere 285 ypg. Mississippi State’s offense has been hit or miss and their success has hindered greatly on their ability to run the ball. The Bulldogs have rushed for 280+ yards in 4 games and each of those had at least 35 points. In games where they have failed to reach 200 yards they haven’t scored more than 10. Kentucky’s defense is built to stop the run, as they come in 10th in the nation, allowing just 97.2 ypg on the ground. UNDER is 38-19 in Mississippi State’s last 57 games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points, which includes a perfect 6-0 mark at home over the last 3 seasons when playing with a total in this range. UNDER is also 8-3 in the Wildcats last 11 road games and 9-1-1 in their last 11 after throwing for 280+ yards in their previous game. Give me the UNDER 54.5! |
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10-21-17 | Purdue v. Rutgers OVER 47 | 12-14 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
40* EARLY BIRD NCAAF TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 47) I think these two fly by this low total. Purdue is a much better offensive team than the numbers would suggest. The Boilermakers last 3 games have come against 3 teams that all rank inside the Top 30 in the country in total defense, with two of those (Wisconsin & Michigan) teams ranking in the Top 10. The last time they faced a sub-par defense, Purdue had nearly 500 yards of total offense on the road against Missouri. Keep in mind that the offense is only going to keep getting better under head coach Jeff Brohm, who is one of the bright offensive minds in the game. I think we see the Boilermakers score 30+ in this one without much problem. At the same time, I think coming off that huge game against Wisconsin and a much bigger game at home against Nebraska on deck, I look for the Purdue defense to be caught off guard by Rutgers here. The Scarlet Knights just piled on 274 rushing yards against Illinois and have one of the top playmakers in the conference at wide receiver in Janarion Grant. Rutgers should have another strong game on the ground, as Purdue ranks just 84th in the country against the run (175.0 ypg). OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the Boilermakers last 5 after they scored fewer than 20 points in their previous game and 6-1 in their last 7 off a SU loss and 7-0 in their last 7 off a cover where they lost outright as an underdog. Give me the OVER 47! |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 46 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
50* CHIEFS/RAIDERS AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46) I wasn't surprised to see the Chiefs offense struggle last week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense has had this teams number, shutting them down in the 3 meetings over the last 2 seasons. As bad as KC looked in that game, you can't forget just how good this offense was to start the season. I know they lost some wide outs, but all are guys they can replace and really weren't big factors in the offense to begin with. They still have their dynamic trio of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt. I do expect the Raiders offense to come to life here, as this Chiefs defense is giving up 378 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. I also think defenses are at a much bigger disadvantage on these short weeks with such little time to prepare. Give me the OVER 46! |
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10-18-17 | Wolves v. Spurs UNDER 205.5 | 99-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 205.5) Tom Thibodeau had to be sick with how bad the Timberwolves were defensively a season ago, but they don't figure to struggle on that side of the ball this year. Minnesota went out an added Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson to pair with youngsters Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. All 3 of those new guys are defensive upgrades. It won't hurt that the Spurs are going to be without both Tony Parker and Kwahi Leonard. Even minus two starters, San Antonio will show up at home and this team led the league in defensive efficiency last year. Give me the UNDER 205.5! |
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10-18-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 9.5) Each of the first 3 games have seen 7 or fewer runs scored and last night with the wind blowing out they scored just 7 with total of 8. The wind will be blowing out again, but this time the books have set the total at 9.5 and given what we have seen, I see the public looking to take the UNDER. That has me looking the other way and calling for a high scoring game. Cubs starter Jake Arrieta hasn't pitched well against the Dodgers and LA's starter Alex Wood hasn't made a start since he took the mound on 9/26 in the regular season. I think we finally see Chicago's offense come to life and both teams put some runs on the board early an often with the wind blowing out close to 15 mph to left field. Give me the OVER 9.5! |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 48 | Top | 22-36 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48) I don't see a ton of offense taking place on Monday Night Football between the Colts and Titans. Tennessee will have Marcus Mariota back under center, but he's still not fully recovered from a hamstring injury that kept him out of last weeks game. I also think the Titans defense is a lot better than it's getting credit for. They really just had one bad game against the Texans that really skewed their defensive numbers. The Colts offense is still without Andrew Luck and until he's back under center Indianapolis will struggle to put point on the board. There's no denying that Jacoby Brissett is better than Scott Tolzien, but Brissett is still a backup at best in this league right now. He's only throwing for 182.2 ypg and has a mere 2 touchdown passes to 3 interceptions on the season. Another key factor here that can't get overlooked is that these are division rivals, who both desperately need to win this game in a wide open AFC South. These two teams know what the other likes to do and that usually leads to a lower-scoring game. Give me the UNDER here at 48! |
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10-14-17 | BYU v. Mississippi State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 10-35 | Win | 100 | 87 h 19 m | Show |
50* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 48.5) BYU's offense is dreadful. They haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game and have been held to 7 or fewer three times. They are 128th out of 130 FBS teams at just 14.0 ppg. They aren’t catching a break here against a pissed off Bulldogs defense that had been playing extremely well before a couple of poor showings against Georgia and Auburn. Not to mention the fact that Dan Mullen and his staff have had two weeks to get their guys ready for this game. Mullen’s teams rarely come out flat in this spot. I wouldn’t be shocked if they held BYU to under 10 points. In fact, I would be more surprised if the Cougars eclipsed that mark. That means Mississippi State can score 35 (7 touchdowns) and there’s a good chance the game stays under the mark. The key here is that BYU actually has a decent defense. Most importantly, they matchup well with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State’s offense is built around their running game. They rank 17th in rushing (252.8 ypg) compared to 110th in passing (169.2 ypg). While the Cougars are just 78th against the run, giving up 167.2 ypg, they are only giving up 3.7 yards/carry against teams that average 4.3 yards/carry. They have simply played a lot of run-first teams, which has that run defense looking worse than it is. The fact that BYU should be able to slow down the Bulldogs ground game should eliminate the big plays and force Mississippi State to eat up some clock when they do put together a scoring drive. As long as we don’t get a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns, this one should stay well under the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 48.5! |
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10-13-17 | Clemson v. Syracuse UNDER 57.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
50* CLEMSON/SYRACUSE ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (UNDER 57.5) I'm taking the Tigers and Orange to go UNDER the mark set by the books. Clemson’s defense is special and it seems like the bigger the stage the better they play. The fact that Syracuse has recently played well on the road against the likes of LSU and NC State and this is a prime time game, I expect a big effort here from the Tigers stop unit. Syracuse has a couple of big time weapons at receiver, but I don't see them having enough time to throw. The Orange don’t have much of a running game, at least not one Clemson will have to respect. The Tigers and that dominant defensive line will be able to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. The big key here is Clemson’s starting quarterback Kelly Bryant hurt his ankle and left last week’s game against Wake Forest. He’s listed as probably and expected to play, but I expect Clemson to be very cautious with letting him run the ball, which is arguably his biggest strength. Instead they will likely just lean on their two talented backs and grind out a win here. Syracuse has also been playing better on the defensive side of the ball this season. The Orange are holding opponents to just 357.7 ypg, which ranks 46th in the country. That’s a massive improvement over last year, when they allowed 501 ypg. The biggest improvement is their run defense. In 2016 they allowed 225 ypg and 5.4 yards/carry. This year they are allowing just 131.5 ypg and 3.8 yards/carry. The UNDER is an impressive 14-4 in Syracuse’s last 18 games and 9-1 in their last 10 at home. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Tigers last 11 games played in a Dome. Give me the UNDER 57.5 |
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10-08-17 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 47.5 | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 1 m | Show | |
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (OVER 47.5) If I had to take a side in this one, I would probably take the points with the Seahawks, but I see a lot more value here in the total. I know the majority of the recent meetings have been very low-scoring. This is a much different Rams team than the past seasons under Jeff Fisher, whose staff clearly didn’t know offense. Under new head coach Sean McVay the Rams are leading the NFL at 35.5 ppg and are 5th in yardage at 383.8 ypg. If they just convert 4 of those 7 field goals to TDs, they would have hung 50 on the Cowboys. That’s a better Dallas defense than it gets credit for. Seattle’s defense gets a lot of love, but don’t think they are elite on that side of the ball. Right defensive end Cliff Avril is out of this one and right corner Jeremy Lane left the last game with a groin injury and is questionable to play. I got confidence in McVay’s ability to put together a gameplan to attack this right side of the field with success. The biggest thing here is the play of the Rams defense is getting completely overlooked. It’s really been bad through 4 games. They rank 27th in total defense and teams are running it all over them. They are 30th against the run, allowing 151.5 ypg. The only team they have held to fewer than 27 points is the Colts when they were starting Scott Tolzien. The thing that really stands out to me is the contest against the 49ers. The let SF pile on 421 yards and 39 points. The 49ers have a whopping 27 points in their other 3 games combined and in those 3 games have averaged just 256.y ypg. Seattle’s offense always starts out slow and this year was no different. I think they got some confidence going on that side after scoring 3 TD’s in the final 20 minutes against the Colts. A big spark for that unit was running back J.D. McKissic, who scored twice and could see more action with Chris Carson out. I’ll take my chances the trends continue here with the Rams playing in high-scoring games, as each of their first 4 games have seen at least 47 points. Note that Seattle’s last two have seen 50+ combined points. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
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10-04-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-11 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
50* ROCKIES/DBACKS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 8.5) I was on the wrong end of the total in yesterday's AL Wild Card matchup, as the two teams combined for 6 runs in the 1st inning, as both starters decided not to show up for their biggest start of the year. Erase that 1st inning and we would have had a 5-1 ball game that stayed under the mark. I'll take my chances that we get a better performance from both starters in tonight's NL Wild Card and will once again play the UNDER. On one side we have Zack Greinke, who is 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 18 home starts. On the other side we have Jon Gray, who posted a 2.12 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in his last 3 starts and in 2 starts at Arizona this season, he allowed just 4 runs with 20 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. Give me the UNDER 8.5! |
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10-03-17 | Twins v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
50* TWINS/YANKEES VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 7.5) The sharp play here is on the UNDER here and these two teams combining for fewer than 8 runs. While the ball flies out of Yankee stadium, it's not the same in October as it is in August. Temps for this game are in the mid to low 60's. We got two good starters going here in Ervin Santana and Luis Severino. Santana went 16-8 with a 3.28 ERA in 33 starts and had a 2.71 ERA in 17 road outings. Severino went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA in 31 starts. UNDER is 16-4 in Santana's last 20 road games when playing against a team with a winning record and 7-1 in the Yankees last 8 playoff home games. Give me the UNDER 7.5! |
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09-30-17 | Mississippi State v. Auburn UNDER 52 | 10-49 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 52) I have been on the UNDER bandwagon each of the last two weeks with Mississippi State and cashed both times. They only reached 44 in their blowout win over LSU and the total was up close to 55. Last week we saw just 34 combined points in the loss to Georgia. I think this is another one that struggles to reach that 40-point mark, giving us a ton of value. As I’ve stated in the past, I’m a huge fan of Mississippi State’s new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham. Just look at how different Louisville is playing on the defensive side of the ball without him in charge of the unit this year. I know the performance against Georgia wasn’t great, but I believe it was more of the Bulldogs’ players getting some big heads after that win over LSU. I didn’t see the same intensity and fight on defense against the Bulldogs. I have a hard time believing that Dan Mullen will let that kind of effort happen in back-to-back games. I look for an inspired effort here from the Mississippi State defense. Sure Auburn put up 51 points last week against Missouri, but if you have really watched this team you know there’s major concerns with the offense. They had a whopping 117 total yards against Clemson (BC had 238 against the Tigers last week). It’s also not like Missouri has a good defense or is any good in general. They gave up 31 in a 18-pt loss to South Carolina and 35 in a 32-pt loss to Purdue. Both of which were on their home field. One thing we can be sure about with Auburn is their defense. The Tigers were outstanding on that side of the ball last year, allowing just 17.1 ppg and 362 ypg. They returned 7 starters to that unit and through 4 games are allowing 11.2 ppg and 237 ypg. After how Mississippi State struggled against another elite defense in Georgia, hard to see them scoring a ton here. I wouldn’t be shocked if either team got to 20 points and certainly don’t see both offenses having a big day in this one. UNDER is a rock solid 38-18 in the Bulldogs last 56 games with a total between 49.5 and 56 points. UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 in Auburn’s last 6 games following a contest in which they combined for 60 or more points. Give me the UNDER 52! |
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09-28-17 | Texas v. Iowa State OVER 63.5 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
50* TEXAS/ISU BIG 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (OVER 63.5) I know these two have struggled to put up points in the last two meetings, but I think we in store for a shootout tonight in Ames. Matt Campbell is in year two with ISU and has the offense ranked 42nd in the country, which is no surprise given what he was able to do at Toledo, which averaged 35 ppg and 461 ypg in his final year. He's got the passing attack working for the Cyclones, as they come in ranked 18th in the country. The game that really stands out to me as a sign that this one will see a lot of scoring is Iowa State's game against in-state rival Iowa. The two combined for 85 points with each scoring in the 40s. That's a very limited Iowa offense who could struggled to get first downs last week against Penn State. Texas has some playmakers on offense and are only going to keep getting better offensively under first year head coach Tom Herman. I'm willing to bet they come out sharp here off a bye. The key here is that I trust this Cyclones offense to do their part and push this one over the mark. Especially with this game being at home. Texas' defense is still a work in progress and we saw them give up 50 in their opener at home to Maryland. The defense was better against USC, but some of that was the Trojans not coming out sharp off a big road game against Stanford. I look for a lot of big plays and quick scores by both sides. Give me the OVER 63.5! |
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09-26-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
50* NL CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 8) I love the pitching matchup in tonight's NL Central showdown between the Cubs and Cardinals. Chicago will send out Jake Arrieta, who has quietly been one of the better starters in the game the last couple of months. Arrienta has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 10 of his last 11 starts and comes in with a 2.85 ERA against the NL Central this season and a 2.30 ERA in his career vs St Louis. The Cardinals will send out Carlos Martinez, who has a strong 3.18 ERA and 1.104 WHIP in 14 home starts. He's faced the Cubs twice at home this season and in those starts has allowed just 3 runs on 11 hits with 17 strikeouts in 14 innings of work. Cubs still need 1 more win to lock up the division title and the Cardinals are right there for the Wild Card. Give me the UNDER 8! |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks v. Titans UNDER 42 | 27-33 | Loss | -117 | 39 h 13 m | Show | |
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 42) Seattle’s defense has the same feel as the one that routinely finished near the top of the league in defensive metrics. In Week 1 they kept Aaron Rogers and the Packers offense off the scoreboard until the final second of the 3rd quarter. Last week they allowed a mere 3 field goals and 248 yards to the 49ers, basically winning them the game. While the defense has been playing lights out, the offense has been hard to watch. Seattle could only muster 225 yards against Green Bay in Week 1, a number that looks a lot worse after watching Matt Ryan and the Falcons pick apart the Packer defense in Week 2. Like we see with a lot of the teams struggling offensively early on in 2017, the offensive line is the main culprit for the struggles. Seattle has put very little resources into their offensive line and lost their starting left tackle before the season ever started. They do seem to eventually figure it out up front, but I don’t see it happening this week against a stingy Titans defense that is very strong up front. Last year Tennessee was 2nd in the NFL agains the run, allowing just 88.3 ypg. They upgraded the secondary in the offseason and should post better numbers overall. Another thing I like here is that Seattle’s Russell Wilson and Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota are two very similar quarterbacks. Both rely a lot on their mobility to extend plays. That’s not easy to prepare for, but it should be for these two teams, given they go against their own mobile quarterback in practice. I just don’t see either team reaching 20 points, unless we have a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns. I’ll take my chances on that not being the case. UNDER is 9-1 in the Seahawks 10 road games under Pete Carroll, where they come in having scored 17 points or less in 2 straight games. The average final score in these games was a mere 32.5 and half points, giving us a full 10-points of value here. |
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09-23-17 | Mississippi State v. Georgia UNDER 48 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF VEGAS OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 48) I cashed in on Missisippi St/LSU UNDER last week and love the UNDER again with Mississippi State taking on Georgia. As mentioned in last week's write-up, this is a different Mississippi State defense under Todd Grantham and a far superior defense than the Notre Dame defense that held Georgia to just 20 points. Speaking of that game against the Irish, Georgia held Notre Dame to just 266 total yards. That's impressive given that the Irish had 606 yards in their opener against Temple and just put another 611 yards on the road against an always strong Boston College defense. This has a grind it out low-scoring game where both sides struggle to get 20 points. Give me the UNDER 48! |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 39 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
50* RAMS/49ERS NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39) I believe a big reason for this low total is a result of how the 49ers first two games have gone. San Francisco’s first two games combined only add up to 47 points, as they have scored a mere 12-points in 2 games. The thing is, they have went up against two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seahawks and Panthers. Also two teams who are struggling offensively because of poor offensive line play. While the Rams are considered to have a good defense, I don’t think they are on the same level as the Seahawks and Panthers. They were great against the Colts, but I feel that was more a byproduct of Scott Tolzien. They weren’t nearly as good agains the Redskins. The stat that sticks out is Washington’s 229 rushing yards on 39 attempts (5.9 yards/carry). That’s good news for a 49ers offense that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. I also think they will be able to generate a few more big plays through the air in this one. As for the Rams offense, I like what I’m seeing in the first year under McVay. I really think it’s a unit that is only going to keep getting better, as they are still adjusting to a new scheme and several new pieces. Give me the OVER 39! |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants UNDER 42.5 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
40* LIONS/GIANTS MNF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 42.5) Two good quarterbacks here in Stafford and Manning, but I don't see either offense doing much in this one. The concerns with the Giants offense are even worse after watching how the Broncos picked apart the Cowboys defense. Even if Beckham Jr. suits up, I still think NY has a tough time moving the ball with the problems they have on the o-line and the inability to run the ball. On the flip side of this, I love this Giants defense and with the team desperate to avoid an 0-2 start and the game at home, I think they shutdown Stafford here. Keep in mind these two teams played late last year and combined for 23 points. Give me the UNDER 42.5! |
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09-17-17 | Packers v. Falcons OVER 55.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 47 h 36 m | Show | |
40* PACKERS/FALCONS SNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 55.5) These two teams played twice last year. Once in the regular season and again in the NFC Championship Game. Both teams they combined for 60+ points. I'll take my chances on another shootout in Atlanta, as we got two of the best offenses in the league here behind two of the best QB's in Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan. Both of these teams will be eager to get the offense going after a sub-par showing in Week 1. Green Bay's slow start was to be expected against Seattle and I wasn't surprised at all to see the Falcons struggle in Chicago, which isn't a great field for offenses like Atlanta that rely on speed. I'm also not buying the Packers defense being as good as it looked against the Seahawks, as Seattle's offensive line is a joke. As for the Falcons, Matt Glennon moved the ball on them, so there's no reason to think Rodgers won't do the same. Give me the OVER 55.5! |
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09-17-17 | Cardinals v. Colts OVER 44 | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 36 m | Show | |
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 44) I was on the OVER in last weeks Colts/Rams game and a lot of that had to do with Indianapolis' defense being one of the worst in the league. The key here is we are getting a low total because of the fact that Arizona lost star RB David Johnson. The thing is, Carson Palmer has the weapons to attack a banged up Colts secondary, which is missing their best corner in Vontae Davis. I could see Arizona putting up a big number here, similar to what the Rams did last week. Keep in mind LA only had 63 rushing yards in that game, so the loss of Johnson just isn't that important here. As for the Colts offense, I expect a much better showing at home and now that Jacoby Brissett is starting over the awful Scott Tolzien. I think this total should be closer to 54 not 44. Give me the OVER 44! |
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09-16-17 | Clemson v. Louisville OVER 58 | 47-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUST TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 58) I think the total here is way too low and it's a result of Clemson just playing a game against Auburn where 20 total points were scored in the 14-6 win over Auburn. The thing is Auburn doesn't have a dual threat named Lamar Jackson, who is the most difficult player in college football. Keep in mind Clemson's defense looked great last year in a 19-13 win at Auburn and had no answer for Jackson at home just a few games later. With this game in Louisville under the lights, I think Jackson shines. He's going to have to, cause the Cardinals defense is not the same without the services of defensive coordinator Todd Grantham (now at Miss St). They let both Purdue and UNC move the ball with ease. Clemson will do the same. I think both teams get to 30 and for those wondering they combined for 78 points last year. Give me the OVER 58! |
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09-16-17 | LSU v. Mississippi State UNDER 55.5 | Top | 7-37 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
100* SEC FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 55.5) What’s getting overlooked is how well these two teams are playing on defense. LSU held BYU to a mere 97 yards and 6 first downs in their opener and the Bulldogs limited Charleston Southern to 33 yards and 2 first downs in their opener. The Tigers followed it up by allowing just 242 yards to Chattanooga and Mississippi State really shutdown a high-powered Louisiana Tech offense. Had it not been for an interception that set up a 2-yard TD drive, the Bulldogs would have led 57-8 going into the 4th quarter. Now LSU having an elite defense shouldn’t be a big surprise. They only gave up 15.8 ppg last year in the first season under defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. Note that the Tigers held Alabama to 10 points. The only time all season the Crimson Tide failed to score at least 30. I think we are seeing a similar type of impact with a new DC at Mississippi State, who added in Todd Grantham, one of the more respected defensive minds in the game. I just don’t see either offense being able to do much of anything in this one and when a team does put together a drive, I look for them to struggle to find the end zone. Give me the UNDER 55.5 |
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09-13-17 | Mariners v. Rangers UNDER 11 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
50* AL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Mariners/Rangers UNDER 11) The books have set the total too high for this one. The Rangers will send out Martin Perez, who has quietly been one of the hottest pitchers in the game. Perez has gone 7-0 with a 3.15 ERA in his last 7 starts. He's pitched well against the Mariners this season and would expect another strong outing here. Seattle will send out Mike Leake, who has really thrown the ball well since coming over via the Cardinals. Leake has a 2.77 ERA in his first two starts, allowing just 2 runs in each outing. He's also owned the Rangers in his career with a 2.33 ERA in 3 starts. Even if one of these guys underperforms, there's still a great chance this stays under the mark. Give me the UNDER 11! |
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09-11-17 | Saints v. Vikings UNDER 48 | Top | 19-29 | Push | 0 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48) I look for both offenses to struggle to get going in this one and feel there's big time value here with the UNDER. Minnesota should have one of the best defenses in the league and are more than capable of shutting down Drew Brees and the Saints offense at home in a big time game like this. Most don't see New Orleans as a great defensive team, but they made a lot of progress on that side of the ball last year and I expect them to be even better in 2017. Minnesota's offense should be improved now that Bradford has had an offseason with the team, but it's far from an elite unit. I still see the Vikings as a team that wants to win by controlling the clock with the running game and relying on their defense to make plays. Give me the UNDER 48! |
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09-10-17 | Panthers v. 49ers OVER 47.5 | 23-3 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 50 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 47.5) I think we are going to see a lot more offense than people are expecting here. Carolina has a healthy Cam Newton who has MVP talent and a shiny new toy in RB Christian McCaffrey. I think McCaffrey makes the Panthers extremely difficult to guard with their big receivers on the outside. I respect the Panthers defense, but they still have a below-average secondary and the 49ers are expected to be much better offensively now that Kyle Shanahan is the head coach. He's going to open up things, which in turn is going to have the defense on the field more now that the offense isn't just trying to grind it down the field with the running game. I look for SF to be a good OVER play early on. Take the OVER 47.5! |
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09-10-17 | Colts v. Rams OVER 41.5 | 9-46 | Win | 100 | 46 h 29 m | Show | |
40* NFL VEGAS ERROR OF THE WEEK (Over 41.5) I think there's some on the bandwagon that the Rams are going to be a much better offensive team this year under new head coach Sean McVay, but how much improvement is up for debate given how bad they were. They finished dead last in yards at 262.7 ypg and scoring at 14.0 ppg. I really like McVay and believe his scheme will have LA making a huge improvement into the top half of the league. He's gonna open up the offense and take advantage of the special talent that Gurley possesses. At the same time, most don't think the Colts can score with Andrew Luck not at quarterback. I think Indy will be able to move the ball just fine here, as they have some playmakers on the outside and are getting a huge break with Aaron Donald not expected to play (he's the guy that makes that defense elite). Give me the OVER 41.5! |
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09-09-17 | Auburn v. Clemson UNDER 55.5 | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BIG MONEY VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Under 55.5) *Analysis Coming* |
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09-09-17 | Nebraska v. Oregon OVER 68.5 | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL BLOWOUT (Over 68.5) I don't think the books are anywhere close to high enough on this total. Oregon's offense looked a lot more like they had in the Chip Kelly era in that first game under Willie Taggart and there's just a different feel to this year's team. They put 77 on Southern Utah and had 42 with time to play in the first half. Nebraska just gave up 36 points and 497 yards of offense at home to Arkansas State. They got zero chance of slowing down Oregon, who have some big revenge on their mind after blowing that game in Nebraska last year. Thing is, Cornhuskers can move the ball and will do plenty of damage here against the Ducks defense. Give me the OVER 68.5! |
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09-08-17 | Ohio v. Purdue UNDER 56.5 | Top | 21-44 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 56.5) *Analysis Coming* |
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09-07-17 | Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
50* AL CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 9.5) I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks in the series opener between the Twins and Royals on Thursday. Kansas City comes in off a 13-run outburst in yesterday's 11-run win over the Tigers, while Minnesota scored 10 runs in a win over the Rays. Royals just claimed Sam Gaviglio off waivers to make a start here. In his last two starts he allowed 12 runs on 17 hits and 5 walks. He also gave up 4 runs on 5 hits (3 HRs) in his only start against the Twins this season. Minnesota will send out Kyle Gibson, who has pitched well of late, but owns a 4.60 ERA and 1.450 WHIP in 11 road starts. In his last outing he held these same Royals to just 5 hits over 6 shutout innings. Expect KC to have a better approach having just seen him. Give me the OVER 9.5! |
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09-03-17 | Indians v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 11-1 | Win | 105 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
50* MLB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 9.5) I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks when the Tigers and Indians take the field Sunday afternoon. That's because the wind will be blowing straight out to left field at Comerica Park and this is far from an ideal pitching matchup. Cleveland's Josh Tomlin has had a miserable time against Detroit, posting a 5.12 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 11 starts. He's also just 2-3 with a 5.02 ERA in 9 road starts. As for the Tigers, they are sending out Chad Bell to make his MLB debut against a red-hot Indians offense that comes in scoring 6.7 runs/game and is hitting .322 as a team over their last 7. Give me the OVER 9.5! |
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09-02-17 | BYU v. LSU OVER 47 | 0-27 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 47) I have a good feeling the Tigers are going to surprise some people early in 2017 with how much different they look on offense. LSU made an exceptional hire in offensive coordinator Matt Canada, who just guided Pitt to 40.9 ppg and 447 ypg last year. Keep in mind that was his first year on the job and the season before the Panthers only managed 28.2 ppg and 377 ypg. He's got a heck of a lot more talent to work with at LSU, including a sensational junior RB in Derrius Guice. I think BYU is going to be a bit shell-shocked here with LSU's offense. At the same time, I also think the Cougars put some points on the board. LSU lost a ton on the defensive side of the ball. They have to replace their top 5 tacklers and their best returning defensive player (Arden Key) is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Give me the OVER 47! |