|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-19-21||Chiefs -3 v. Ravens||Top||35-36||Loss||-112||129 h 3 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Chiefs/Ravens SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -3)
I just don't understand this line. This to me feels like what the line should be if both teams were at full strength. That's just not the case. The Ravens have been absolutely decimated by injuries. It's really starting to remind me a lot of the 49ers last year, where they had so many guys go out they went 6-10 just one year removed from playing in the SB.
Everyone knows about all the guys the Ravens have had go down at running back. They also lost one of their best defensive players in corner Marcus Peters. There's also major concern up front on the offensive line. That unit played really bad against a mediocre Raiders defensive front. While it doesn't figure to be long-term, starting left-tackle Ronnie Staley is doubtful to play. The Chiefs are going to LIVE in the Ravens backfield.
On the flip side of this, I think because the Browns were up the majority of that game last week, people overlook just how good the Chiefs offense was. Kansas City only punted twice that entire game. Only one of their drives didn't end in Cleveland territory. Patrick Mahomes was only sacked twice, which I think speaks volumes to that new offensive line. The Browns got one of the best defensive fronts in the league.
If Baltimore runs all that man-to-man defense, Mahomes is going to pick them apart if he's got time to throw. Mahomes has really feasted on this Baltimore defense the past few years and this might be his best game versus them yet. Give me the Chiefs -3!
|09-19-21||Cowboys v. Chargers -3||20-17||Loss||-100||127 h 3 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Chargers -3)
I'm going to take the Los Angeles Chargers as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Dallas Cowboys. After watching that Cowboys/Bucs game last Thursday, I immediately circled this game at the Chargers as a spot to play against Dallas.
The betting public loves the Cowboys and are going to be betting them like crazy here after what they saw out of this Dallas offense with Dak Prescott under center.
That offense is really good, but I'm not as high on that Tampa Bay secondary as others. It's the front 7 that really makes that Bucs defense. I think they could have a little tougher time against this Chargers secondary. I know Ryan Fitzpatrick barely played, but you can't ignore the fact that they held Washington 133 yards passing. That's unheard of in today's NFL. Let's also not forget their new head coach, Brandon Stately got this job because of what he did on the defensive side of the ball with the Rams.
The even bigger thing that is getting overlooked with Dallas because of all the attention Dak and that offense are getting, is this Cowboys defense is once again one of the worst units in the league. I thought they were fortunate to only give up 31 to Brady and the Bucs.
The Chargers offense didn't wow us in Week 1, as they only put up 20 points in their win over Washington. While I don't know if the Football Team is as good defensively as what everyone is saying, that's a much better defense than the one they will face on Sunday and they should be much more comfortable at home. They did have an impressive 424 yards of total offense against Washington. I think Justin Herbert is going to have a field day in this one and I would be shocked if LA didn't put up at least 30 in this one. Give me the Chargers -3!
|09-19-21||Patriots -4.5 v. Jets||Top||25-6||Win||100||147 h 4 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH (Pats -4.5)
I absolutely love the Patriots this week. I bet them early before the line jumped even more, but I do still recommend a play at the current line. As long as this is less than a touchdown, play it.
New England was one of my favorite bets in Week 1 that didn't get home. It definitely felt like the right side, as the Pats dominated the box score. NE really beat themselves in that one. Rarely have we seen a Bill Belichick coached team execute poorly in 2 straight games.
Let's also not overlook who they are playing. The Jets are awful. I think they may have something in rookie QB Zach Wilson and that's maybe why they are getting some love early on. The problem isn't Wilson, it's the offensive line. Wilson was sacked 6 times in last week's loss to the Panthers. Add in the mastery of Belichick against rookie QBs and there's just little upside for that Jets offense that can't run the ball to do much of anything.
The Pats also have a rookie QB in Mac Jones. I said before the season he was my favorite pick to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and he was by far the best rookie QB in Week 1. He's only going to get better as he learns that McDaniels offense. I think NE will have no problem moving the ball and winning this game by at least double-digits. Give me the Pats -4.5!
|09-19-21||Bills v. Dolphins OVER 47.5||35-0||Loss||-110||94 h 59 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Situational Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (OVER 47.5)
I think both of these offenses are coming off very unfavorable matchups. I think you could make a legit case that the Steelers and Patriots are the two best defensive teams in the AFC this year.
Since the Bills drafted Josh Allen back in the 2018 offseason, the OVER in this division series is 5-1 with 5 straight covers. Last year the total set in both of their games was 42 and they combined for 59 and 84 points in the two games they played. They have combined for at least 52 in each of the last 5.
One thing to note about that Bills defense and the good numbers it put up last week against the Steelers, they couldn’t get off the field in the 2nd half. After holding Pittsburgh scoreless and allowing just 23 total yards in the 1st half, the Steelers scored on all 4 of their 2nd half possessions and put up 229 yards.
As for Miami, they were extremely lucky to only give up 17 points. Not only did they give up nearly 400 yards to a rookie QB on the road, they only forced two punts the entire game and one of those they were lucky didn’t end in a field goal. Pats had 1st and 10 on the 30 and ended up 4th and 17 on the 37.
I also think weather could play into a high-scoring game. It’s suppose to be hot and humid in Miami this Sunday, so I would expect the defenses to wear down as the game goes on. Give me the OVER 47.5!
|09-19-21||Raiders v. Steelers OVER 47||26-17||Loss||-105||72 h 44 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 47)
I think we are getting some decent value with the OVER in this game. I just think people have a hard time seeing a high-scoring game with the Steelers after how bad the offense looked and how great the defense was in that Week 1 win over the Bills.
Yes, the Pittsburgh offense was bad in the 1st half of that game against Buffalo, but they really seemed to figure it out in the 2nd half. They had 229 of their 252 total yards in the final two quarters.
I think we are going to see that offense start strong and finish strong against a bad Raiders defense. Not to mention the emotional letdown defensively coming off that crazy MNF game vs the Ravens.
Pittsburgh is also in a bit of a letdown off that massive game against the Bills. Their defense is maybe the best in the league, but this Raiders offense can put up points on just about any defense. If they can just sniff 20 points, this thing is going to easily get to 50.
OVER is 9-1 in the Raiders last 10 games as a dog and a perfect 7-0 when they are a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Average combined score in the 7-0 streak is 64.0 ppg! Give me the OVER 47!
|09-18-21||Arizona State -3.5 v. BYU||Top||17-27||Loss||-109||78 h 7 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH (Arizona St -3.5)
I love Arizona State as a slim 3.5-point road favorite against BYU. This is the ultimate let down spot for BYU off that shocking 26-17 home win over rival Utah as a 7-point dog. That was far from just another game for the Cougars. Beating Utah is everything to them and they had lost 9 straight in that series.
Simply put, that was BYU's Super Bowl. Even with a good Arizona State coming to town, one that's ranked ahead of the Cougars at No. 19 in the polls, it will be near impossible for BYU to bring that same energy and effort they put on display against the Utes.
I know everyone was calling for Utah as the team to beat in the Pac-12 South, but I'm not convinced that's the case. It's not out of the question Herm Edwards' Sun Devils aren't a better team. Arizona State has looked sharp, crushing Southern Utah 41-14 and UNLV 37-10.
I think the only thing holding people back on the Sun Devils is their schedule. Hard to get excited about a team beating up on bad teams. I think it has them flying a bit under the radar and I see them being extremely motivated in this game. They certainly won't be overlooking BYU after they just beat one of their biggest threats in the Pac-12 South.
Let's also not forget that we are talking about a BYU team that is destined to be worse after losing a QB the caliber of Zach Wilson. The Cougars only beat Arizona 24-16 in Week 1 and were outgained in that game 426 to 368 by the Wildcats. The same Arizona team that got absolutely destroyed 38-14 at home by San Diego State last week. Give me the Sun Devils -3.5!
|09-18-21||Auburn v. Penn State -6||20-28||Win||100||80 h 25 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Auburn/Penn St Prime Time NO-BRAINER (Penn St -6)
I was on the Nittany Lions in their 16-10 upset win on the road against Wisconsin as a 5-point dog in Week 1. I will gladly back them laying just 6 at home against Auburn Saturday night. I was extremely high on Penn State coming into this season. I saw them as being one of the most improved teams from 2020.
For them to win on the road against a very good Badgers team shows that. I was also impressed with how they came out and took care of business last week against Ball State 44-13 as a 22.5-point favorite. That was a massive letdown spot off the game against Wisconsin and this game against Auburn on deck. That to me further backs just how much better this year's Penn State team is.
The other big thing here is the extra juice that the Nittany Lions get at home under the lights at Beaver Stadium. They do a "white out" once a year in a night home game and Auburn is the team they picked for it. This is 100% a statement game for Penn State.
Auburn has started 2-0, but I think it's a bit of fools gold. They beat one of the worst FBS teams in the country in Akron 60-10 and ran it up on lowly Alabama State 62-0 in their second game. Talk about a massive step up in competition.
Sure Tigers' quarterback Bo Nix has put up some decent numbers in his first two starts. Most Power 5 QBs would against those two teams. I just can't help myself go back to the last couple of years and all the poor games that Nix has played on the road. I just don't trust him in this spot, especially in this kind of chaotic atmosphere. Give me Penn State -6!
|09-18-21||USC -8 v. Washington State||45-14||Win||100||77 h 31 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (USC -8)
I see this is as the perfect buy low spot on USC, as they are only a 8-point road favorite against Washington State. The Trojans fell flat on their face last week at home against Stanford, losing outright 28-42 as a 17-point favorite. There's just not going to be many rushing to back USC laying more than a TD on the road, especially after the Trojans just fired head coach Clay Helton.
Some might see the firing of Helton as a sign that the team is in turmoil just two weeks into the season, but I see it as a big positive. At least for this game. 9 times out of 10 a team will respond with one of their best efforts the first game after their head coach was fired. They just feel a bit responsible and they also want to play well for the new guy.
In this case it will be associate head coach Donte Williams, who joined last year as their CB and pass game coordinator on defense. One thing to note about Williams, is he will be the first black head coach in USC history. That's a big deal to a lot of these kids. He's also an LA native, so the fans will be behind this. It's not like they were in love with Helton.
As for Washington State, I don't think they have what it gots to keep it close against a motivated USC team, even at home. We already saw the Cougars lose outright at home to Utah State as a 18-point favorite.
Not to mention, the Trojans destroyed Washington State 38-13 last year and it really wasn't that close. USC had a 35-6 lead at the half and put forth little to no effort in the 2nd half. I just don't see the Cougars keeping this to single digits. Give me the Trojans -8!
|09-18-21||Michigan State v. Miami-FL -6.5||38-17||Loss||-105||73 h 3 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Sharp Money ATS STEAMROLLER (Miami -6.5)
I’m going to take the No. 24 ranked Miami Hurricanes as a 6.5-point home favorite against the Michigan State Spartans. I always like to look for good teams that aren’t getting a lot of love. This Miami team is far from being hyped up. People were disappointed that they couldn’t keep it more respectable against Alabama in the opener. They lost 44-13 as a 19.5-pt dog. The same can be said about last week’s gut-wrenching 25-23 win at home against Appalachian State, where they closed as a 7-point favorite.
You really can’t read too much in the loss to Alabama. The Crimson Tide have been doing that in Week 1 to other Power 5 teams for years now under Nick Saban. Even though they had no chance, I’m sure Miami coaches and players talked themselves into believing they could win that game. It should be expected that they come out flat against a team that they know they are more talented then. I’m not saying the Mountaineers had no shot, I just don’t think they got Miami’s best shot in that game. I also think it says a lot about how the Hurricanes were able to dig themselves out of a hole in the 4th quarter to win that game. I think winning a game like that in the final minutes can spark a team. With all the negative talk they are hearing about their start to the year, I feel really good about the mindset of the Hurricanes on Saturday.
I know Michigan State is off to a 2-0 start with an impressive 38-21 win at Northwestern as a 3-point dog and a 42-14 win and cover at home against Youngstown State as a 27-point favorite, I just wonder if we aren’t overreacting a little bit with their first two games. Let’s not forget they are coming off a 2-5 season in 2020, where they only averaged 18.0 ppg and gave up 35.1 ppg. To think they are anything close to the team that is averaging 40 ppg and giving up 17.5 ppg thru their first two is crazy.
I went back and took another look at the Michigan State/Northwestern game in Week 1. They couldn’t have had a better start to that game. The very first play of the game they score a TD on a 75-yard run. Northwestern drives down and misses a field goal. Spartans turn around and score again to make it 14-0. It completely changed how the Wildcats had to play and allowed the Spartans to play to their strength offensively with the run game. One thing that is worth noting from that game is they gave up 400 yards of offense to Northwestern. The same Northwestern offense that could only muster 275 total yards at home against Indiana State. I’m just not so sure this Michigan State defense is as good as what people might think after their first two games.
On the flip side of this, I think this is really bad matchup for the Spartans offense. Michigan State is a run-first team and struggle to throw it when the run isn’t there. Miami’s always got a strong front 7 and have held their own against the run against two really good running teams. They are only giving up 3.6 yards/carry, almost a full yard better per carry than what their opponents average. If they are able to slow down that run game, their pass rush should have a field day, which in turn is going to lead to turnovers and quick scores. I also think if the Hurricanes can get out to any kind of lead, they can run with and really turn this into a blowout. I can’t believe this line is under a touchdown. Give me the Hurricanes -6.5!
|09-18-21||Boston College v. Temple OVER 56.5||Top||28-3||Loss||-110||68 h 56 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Sharp Money TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 56.5)
I think the fact that BC lost starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec to injury has created some big time value on the OVER in Saturday's game against Temple. I just don't think the drop off to backup Dennis Grosel is as big as people might think. Grosel came in relief of Jurkovec in last week's 45-28 win over UMass and completed 11 of 14 for 199 yards.
There's also last year's season finale at Virginia, where Grosel got the start for an inured Jurkovec. He was 32 of 46 (69.6%) for 520 yards and 4 scores. I don't see the Owls having any kind of answer for this BC passing attack.
Don't be fooled by Temple's defense in their first two games. While they held Rutgers to just 365 total yards, the Scarlet Knights put up 61 on the Owls. Even an awful Akron team that didn't score a point until the 4th quarter against Auburn was able to put up 24 points. Let's also not forget that same Rutgers offense that shredded Temple had just 17 points and 195 total yards in their game against Syracuse last week.
It's not out of the question here that BC could put up a 50 spot. I certainly think they can get to at least 40. That means we just need a little bit out of this Temple offense to cash a winner.
I think they can. Boston College's defense isn't anything special. If UMass can score 28 against them, so can Temple. My numbers have this game at 64.5. That's a full 8 points of value we are getting. Give me the OVER 56.5!
|09-17-21||Central Florida -6.5 v. Louisville||Top||35-42||Loss||-115||52 h 32 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - UCF/Louisville MAX UNIT Top Play (UCF -6.5)
I'm going to lay it with the Knights Friday night on the road against Louisville. UCF owes me one after that 0.5-point loss we had on them in Week 1 in their 5 point win over Boise State. A game that should have been a blowout.
UCF threw a 100-yard pick six to start the game against the Broncos. It rattled this team and they fell behind 21-0. They got their feet back under them and would go on a 36-10 run the rest of the way to win 36-31. They outgained Boise State 573 to 283. Dillon Gabriel threw for 318 yards and 4 TD's and the Knights had 255 on the ground.
Everyone is saying it's Cincinnati that's the best Group of 5 team out there, but I'm not so sure that's the case. UCF was down last year and only lost 33-36 to Cincinnati.
The Knights are an elite offensive team and greatly improved on the defensive side of the ball. I just don't know that Louisville has the offensive fire-power to keep pace.
I laid the 9-points on a neutral site with Ole Miss against Louisville in Week 1 and a lot of the reasons I liked the Rebels holds true for this matchup.
I didn't think that the Cardinals defense was going to be able to slow down the Ole Miss pasing attack. They didn't. I also had big concerns with the Louisville offense. Yes they brought back starting quarterback Malik Cunningham, but they lost their top RB and top two WRs. They couldn't get anything going against an Ole Miss defense that while improved, gave up 38.3 ppg last year.
Cunningham is more of a running threat than he is a passing threat. I think he's in trouble against this UCF front. The Knights have allowed a total of 44 rushing yards in two games, giving up a mere 1.1 yards/carry. Cardinals just aren't built to play in a shootout where they have to throw for 300+ yards. Give me UCF -6.5!
|09-16-21||Giants v. Washington Football Team OVER 40.5||Top||29-30||Win||100||34 h 32 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Over 40.5)
I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 40.5 on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. Most are going to look at this matchup between NFC East rivals Washington and New York and think it will be low scoring.
Neither team was able to reach 20 points in Week 1, as the Football Team lost 16-20 at home, while the Giants scored just 13 in their 14-point loss at home to the Broncos.
Not only that, Washington lost starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to a hip injury that will have him sidelined 6-8 weeks.
What will get overlook, as it does every year, is the difficulty that comes with playing on just 3 days rest. It's an absolutely brutal turnaround for NFL teams to play on Sunday and then have to play on Thursday. It's just not enough time for these guys to recover.
I believe that really has a negative impact on the defensive side of the ball. So much of what makes a great defense is energy and effort. Both teams figure to be lacking that.
I also don't think these offenses are as bad as people think. While the Giants only scored 13 points, they were able to move the football against a really good Denver defense. New York had 314 yards and 19 first downs. They had 4 drives inside Denver territory that didn't result in any points.
Washington's defense held the Chargers to 20 points. However, I think their defense is a bit overrated. They got a really good player in Chase Young, but as a whole their more middle of the pack in my eyes. LA did have 424 yards and 27 first downs in that game.
As for the Washington offense and the Fitzpatrick injury, I don't think there's a huge drop off from Fitzpatrick to backup Taylor Heinicke. A number of guys on the Football Team voiced their vote for Heinicke to be the starting QB this year.
All we basically need is for 5 TDs to be scored in this game. That should get us to 35. You got to think there's at least 2 field goals, which would put us to 41. Give me the OVER 40.5!
|09-13-21||Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 50.5||Top||27-33||Loss||-110||33 h 32 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Ravens/Raiders MNF MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 50.5)
I think the best bet on Monday Night Football is the UNDER 50.5. I just don't see this game getting into the 50s.
Baltimore might have a MVP quarterback in Lamar Jackson, but this is a run-first team. They were 1st in rushing in 2020 (191.9 ypg) and dead last in passing (171.2 ypg). I know Lamar might throw more out of necessity with all the injuries the Ravens have had at RB, but that's not playing to his strength.
I also think that Baltimore offense is going up against an improved Raiders defense that has had several big additions at all 3 levels of the defense. They also are getting a new look under new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. Not to mention this should be an electric atmosphere in Las Vegas' new stadium with fans for the first time in a prime time game. That will fuel that defense.
Baltimore did lose a top level corner in Marcus Peters, but they got some solid depth in the secondary and really bring back the entire core from last year's unit that ranked 6th against the pass and 8th against the run.
The Raiders got some nice weapons at the skill positions and an okay QB in Carr, but I got big time concerns with an offensive line that will have 4 new starters after they traded away 3 of their best linemen in center Rodney Hudson, right tackle Trent Brown and right guard Gabe Jackson. I think they are in trouble against that front 7 of Baltimore. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|09-12-21||Dolphins v. Patriots -2.5||Top||17-16||Loss||-110||559 h 45 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Opening Week PLAY OF THE YEAR (Pats -2.5)
I will gladly lay less than a field goal at home with the Patriots and I don't care if it's Cam Newton or Mac Jones under center for New England. I don't think people give the Pats enough credit for going 7-9 last year. I know it's nowhere close to the standards we have seen in the last two decades, but I don't know many other coaches that could get 7 wins out of a team with as little talent as NE had after all those guys opted out.
*I'm extremely excited that it's going to be Jones at QB. I never really thought Cam was a good fit. For NE's offense to thrive, they need to execute at a high level. Cam isn't a guy that can pick apart defenses in the pocket with his arm. It was all about his freakish size and athleticism, which is why he doesn't have a job just a few years removed from winning the MVP.
They should be one of the best defensive teams in the league this year and I'm pretty confident they are going to get better QB play, whether it's Cam or Jones. I do think it will be Cam and I think if he's healthy, he's going to surprise some people. They are also really strong up front on the o-line and should be able to run the football.
The Dolphins are a franchise that looks to be headed in the right direction, but I'm not as high on this team as others. I think there's still legit questions on Tua Tagovailoa and if he's a legit franchise QB. I also don't love the weapons he has at his disposal and I got major concerns with their offensive line. Defensively they are going to be solid, but they are more better suited to stop a strong passing attack than a strong run game. Give me the Pats -2.5!
|09-12-21||Packers v. Saints +4.5||3-38||Win||100||139 h 58 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Public Money BLOODBATH (Saints +4.5)
It doesn't feel like anyone is giving New Orleans a shot in this game. Easy to see why. The public loves Aaron Rodgers as a small favorite (certainly don't want to bet against him), there's a lot of questions with the Saints offense now that it's Jameis Winston and not Drew Brees at quarterback and the game isn't being played in the SuperDome (neutral site at Jacksonville).
I could be dead wrong here, but I think Winston is going to put up some big numbers in this Sean Payton offense. The one knock on Brees in his final years was he couldn't throw it deep. It really let defenses play up. That's not an issue with Winston (it's forcing it into bad spots). If he can stretch the defense, it's only going to create more space for Alvin Karma and that's a scary thing for opposing teams.
Defensively, there's a lot to like here with the Saints. They did lose some guys up who played big roles, but the core of that unit is back. They finished 4th against the run and 5th against the pass last year. They led the league in interceptions and were 8th in sacks. I think they can make life tough for Rodgers and that Packers offense, especially with Green Bay missing stud left tackle David Bakhtiari. It's also worth noting both Packers starting OLB Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith are questionable to play. Give me the Saints +4.5!
|09-12-21||Broncos -2.5 v. Giants||27-13||Win||100||139 h 57 m||Show|
40* (NFL) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Broncos -2.5)
I just think this is too good a price to pass up with the Broncos. I don't love to play road favorites in Week 1 (this is the only one), but I just can't pass up with the value I see with Denver in this one.
I just don't know what people are seeing in this Giants team. Getting Saquon Barkley back is a big deal, but they got a below-average QB running their offense in Daniel Jones. They also have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, which is both a negative for Barkley and Jones.
It's certainly a negative for New York in this matchup against a really good Denver defense that has two elite pass rushers in Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. The Broncos also made massive improvements in the secondary with the free agent additions of Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller, as well as their first round pick on Patrick Surtain II.
I just don't see the Giants offense doing much of anything in this game. On the flip side, I think this Denver offense is one to watch out for. Teddy Bridgewater is an upgrade over Drew Lock and they one of the most underrated receiving corps in the league. They also had the 13th best rush attack last year. Give me the Broncos -2.5!
|09-12-21||Browns v. Chiefs -6||29-33||Loss||-110||90 h 50 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Browns/Chiefs GAME OF THE WEEK (Chiefs -6)
I got absolutely no problem laying less than touchdown at home with the Chiefs. It's no disrespect the Browns. Okay maybe a little, but it's more about how good I think this Kansas City team is. I really feel like this is the most talented and deep the Chiefs have been on both sides of the ball since Mahomes took over.
What GM Brett Veach did to overhaul that offensive line is really remarkable. Even more so that a lot of the guys he went out and got, got beat out by some really promising rookies. Not only is this unit going to better protect Mahomes, but they are going to be able to make defenses that sit back in zone pay with the run game. I really think this offense will be near impossible to start.
The Browns made a lot of big moves in the offseason, but I just don't think they are on the same level here. Baker Mayfield is good, but he's not elite and he has to be so good for Cleveland to keep it close in a shootout.
This is also no joke of a Chiefs defense. They got one of the best secondaries in the league, made some nice additions to improve against the run and a freak up front in Chris Jones. Add in how difficult it's going to be for Mayfield and the Browns offense to execute with the noise of Arrowhead and I just don't see this game being all that close. Give me the Chiefs -6!
|09-12-21||Steelers +6.5 v. Bills||23-16||Win||100||136 h 33 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Steelers +6.5)
I’m going to take the Pittsburgh Steelers as a 6.5-point road dog at the Buffalo Bills. It doesn't happen often, but this is one of those Week 1 games where it's a matchup between a team that I feel is very underrated and a team I think might be a little overrated.
I think because of all the love the Browns and Ravens are getting as the top contenders in the AFC North, people are mistakenly overlooking this Steelers team. Yea they lost a shootout to the Browns in the playoffs, but they won the division last year with a 12-4 record.
They are going to be elite on defense again. They only real loss was linebacker Bud Dupree. They got the core back from a unit that was #3 in 2020 in both scoring and total defense, giving up just 305.8 ypg and 19.5 ppg.
Offensively there's a lot of questions around Big Ben and can he keep this going. Injuries have been a problem. You can't assume someone is going to get hurt and he's as tough as they get at the position. I've liked what I've seen out of him and this offense in training camp.
You also have to keep in mind he doesn't figure to have to carry as big a load this year. The Steelers used a 1st round pick on Alabama RB Najee Harris. There's been nothing but positive reports about Harris so far and I think he's going to be a star from the get go.
Yes I said the Bills were overrated. That's not saying I think they are a bad team, but I just think the hype's a little much. They feasted on a down AFC East, going 6-0 in division games. They also went 5-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
I'll admit Josh Allen has turned out to be better than I thought he would, but he's still not a guy I fully trust. He was just 24 of 32 for 238 yards in last year's game against the Steelers. Defensively they were middle of the pack in about every major stat.
I really think this line should be Bills -3 at most. Keep in mind Buffalo was only a 2-point favorite at home vs the Steelers last year. I not only think Pittsburgh keeps it close, but I like their chances of winning outright. Give the Steelers +6.5!
|09-12-21||Vikings v. Bengals +3.5||24-27||Win||100||91 h 7 m||Show|
40* (NFL) - Big Money Vegas STEAMROLLER (Bengals +3.5)
I think there's some really good value here with Cincinnati as a 3.5-point home dog against the Vikings. I'm a big Joe Burrow fan. I think the kid has something special and the more I see LSU struggle without him, the less we have to worry about him not being able to be that same guy in the NFL.
A big reason there's not more hype on Cincinnati and Burrow coming into 2021, is the simple fact that Burrow missed the last 6 games in 2020. People forget he was on pace to break a lot of rookie record not just in Cincinnati but all-time. He was doing it behind an absolutely awful offensive line and with Tyler Boyd as his No. 1 wideout.
Burrow also didn't play in the preseason and for many they need to see it to believe it, so they are holding out to make their evaluations on this team until after this game.
The offensive line is far from a strength, but it should be improved. They used a Top 5 pick on wide out Ja'Marr Chase, Burrows former teammate at LSU and a rising star in second year wide out Tee Higgins.
The other thing here, this is a plus matchup for Burrow and the Bengals offense. Minnesota was 27th last year in total defense (393.3 ypg), ranking 25th against the pass and 27th vs the run. Their 23 sacks ranked 28th. It's hard to imagine a Mike Zimmer defense being that bad again in 2021, but I'm not one that think he's just going to magically turn them into a Top 10 or even Top Half of the league unit.
Vikings got some big names on offense, but I got zero trust in Kirk Cousins. He hasn't looked great in training camp and lost one of his best weapons in TE Irv Smith. Give me the Bengals +3.5!
|09-12-21||Jets v. Panthers OVER 44||14-19||Loss||-103||86 h 26 m||Show|
40* (NFL) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 44)
I really feel like the books aren't close with the total here. It's the 3rd lowest total on Sunday right now, ahead of only the Dolphins/Pats (43.5) and Broncos/Giants (41.5). Without a doubt the biggest factor here is the Jets defense.
Last year New York gave up 28.6 ppg. They were 28th against the pass, T-20th in sacks, T-23 in interceptions and 24th in total defense. Two of the Jets biggest pickups to help them improve with defensive end Carl Lawson and middle linebacker Jarrad Davis. Lawson has been lost for the year and Davis is on IR.
I just think there's little doubt this Jets defense will be ranking near the bottom of the league in all those categories again in 2021.
I do think one thing that's holding this total back, is people aren't quite ready to trust Sam Darnold in Carolina. Was Darnold very good with the Jets? No. However, not many young QBs would be in that situation. He had no talent around him and horrible coaching.
He's now got one of the rising stars at head coach in Matt Rhule and even more importantly a really good offensive coordinator in Joe Brady. I think Brady's scheme is legit and it didn't look like the old Darnold in training camp. I mean how big is the gap between Christian McCaffrey and the best skill player Darnold played with at New York? I really think this offense is going to be pushing 30 ppg this year.
Last thing for me here is I also think people are sleeping on this Jets offense. New York hired a defensive minded guy in 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to be their new head coach. What people overlook is he brought along 49ers offensive assistant Mike LaFleur to run the ultra-successful offense that was installed in SF by Kyle Shanahan.
Not only are the Jets going to be better coached on offense, I think they got something in rookie BYU quarterback Zach Wilson. The spotlight doesn't seem to big for this kid. He's really been impressive to this point. He might not be an upgrade in terms of talent over Darnold, at least not now, but the quarterback play in NY is going to be light years better than it was last year.
Last year their top rusher was Frank Gore and leading wide out was Jamison Crowder. I think Tevin Coleman is an upgrade over Gore and Corey Davis has looked like a different guy since coming over from Tennessee. I think they are going to score a lot more (dead last in scoring last year at 15.2 ppg). Give me the OVER 44!
|09-11-21||Utah -7 v. BYU||17-26||Loss||-105||72 h 55 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Vegas Late Night STEAMROLLER (Utah -7)
I'm going to go in more detail, but this 100% a fade of BYU. I think the Cougars are going to be extremely overvalued this year. Not only did they lose one of the best quarterbacks to ever go through their program in Zach Wilson, they only got 11 total starters back in a year where everyone has 15+.
I took what I think is going to be a pretty bad Arizona team as a mere 12-point dog against BYU last week. BYU won the game 24-16 and were a bit lucky to do so. The Cougars were outgained 426 to 368 and had just 18 first downs to the Wildcats 27.
I know it's a rivalry, but asking this team to lose by less than a touchdown is asking way too much. I think Utah will be lucky to even make this semi-respectable. The Utes are one of the best teams in the country. They basically return everybody and add in a top tier QB in Baylor transfer Charlie Brewer. After all the hype BYU got last year, they will have no problem running it up against their rival. Give me the Utes -7!
|09-11-21||Missouri v. Kentucky -5||Top||28-35||Win||100||69 h 9 m||Show|
50* (CFB) SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Kentucky -5)
I will gladly lay less than a touchdown with Kentucky at home against Missouri. I think the Wildcats might just be the biggest sleeper in the SEC this year. Kentucky has really been relative in the SEC since 2016. They have had a top tier caliber defense in this league more times than not of late. The thing that has held them back is offense. Most notably their inability to throw the ball.
I don't think that's going to be a problem anymore. Kentucky made it clear it was an area they wanted to be better at and they showed it by going after Liam Coen to be their new offensive coordinator. Coen has spent the last 3 years learning under one of the better offensive minds in the NFL in Sean McVay.
Say what you want about it being ULM that they thrashed 45-10 with a 564-87 edge in total yards. The Warhawks stink, whatever. That's not what I'm focused on. In year's past when Kentucky won a game like this, they had like 400 yards rushing. They THREW FOR 419 YARDS and only rushed for 145 in that win over ULM. Josh Ali, their top returning wide out had 5 catches for 136 yards. Nebraska transfer Wan'Dale Robinson had 5 for 125.
I'm going to roll the dice and say this Kentucky team that only averaged 21.8 ppg in 2020, will add at least a TD on to that and probably more.
Missouri was a team I expected a little more out of in Week 1. They got a 34-24 win against Central Michigan, but were actually outgained on the game 468 to 475. Chippewas had 27 first downs to the Tigers 22.
Not that I don't think Missouri's offense won't be decent this year, but think about the atmosphere that offense will be up against in a road night game for the SEC opener. I really think this could get ugly. Give me Kentucky -5!
|09-11-21||Texas A&M v. Colorado +17||Top||10-7||Win||100||65 h 15 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH (Colorado +17)
This is way too many points for Colorado to be catching in this game. All we have heard about the last 3 months leading up to the season, was how good this Texas A&M team was going to be. Some even thought they could dethrone Alabama in the SEC West.
I don't think that changed after their 41-10 win against Kent State. That's not a game too many had up on the TV. All they see is the final score. They won't know until it's mentioned in the game that they only led Kent State 10-3 at the half.
Yes, they dominated the 2nd half, but it bothers me that they needed a half to play up to their potential in a season opener. If in fact this team is feeling itself a little too much, that's not going to change to them because they only led 10-3 at the half. All they see is the fact they went from No. 6 up to No. 5 in the country.
I think it makes Colorado a very dangerous team on Saturday. I certainly don't have any doubts about the Buffaloes treating this like it's the biggest game of the year. I did a quick look thru their past schedules and I want to say the last time they face a SEC team was Alabama in the 2007 Independence Bowl. Either way it's a big deal to them.
I also think Colorado already came into this season with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. It's almost like their 3-1 record in the Pac-12 was overshadowed by their ugly loss to Texas in the Bowl. The fact that it was with a first year head coach in the middle of a pandemic is a big positive for me. I think Karl Dorrell may have been a great hire.
Add in the game being played in an NFL Stadium (Denver Broncos). That's a really big deal to a school like Colorado.
Lastly, you have to consider the altitude of Denver. It's just not easy playing in altitude when your body isn't trained for it. I could definitely see the Aggies having a hard time adjusting. I think it not only sets Colorado up for an easy cover, but it wouldn't shock me if they won outright.
|09-11-21||Buffalo v. Nebraska -13.5||3-28||Win||100||65 h 57 m||Show|
40* (CFB) Public Money ATS MASSACRE (Nebraska -13.5)
I'll admit, after watching Nebraska lose the way they did to Illinois in Week Zero, I didn't see myself trusting the Cornhuskers enough to even consider taking them. I guess that's how everyone else is treating this team, because it's not asking much for them to win by 2 TDs at home against the Bulls.
Now the other big part of this is I think Buffalo is a team that is very overvalued right now. The Bulls have been one of the better teams out of the MAC the past few years and were fun to watch (averaged 30+ ppg each of the last 3 years, 43.4 ppg last year). They made a lot of people money on those weekday MACtion games (29-14, 67% ATS L3 Years).
So while others might see last week's 69-7 blowout win over Wagner as a sign that Buffalo is just as good as they have been, I think it's fools gold.
What most will overlook is the fact that their head coach Lance Leipold up and left this team after the spring to be the new head coach at Kansas. I think he's a really good coach. He took a lot of his assistants with him and they replaced him with Mo Linguist, who was the DB coach for the Cowboys last year (not exactly something to brag about). Not a single coach is back from last year and they had 10 players hit the transfer portal.
The offense no longer has an All-American RB, as Jaret Patterson is gone. They also lost their Top 2 and 3 of their top 4 receivers. They got just 10 starters back in total, which is an extremely low number in this time of the super senior.
I think Nebraska is playing with a chip on their shoulder and will be highly motivated to put Buffalo away early with a monster game at Oklahoma on deck. Give me the Cornhuskers -13.5!
|09-11-21||Toledo v. Notre Dame OVER 55.5||29-32||Win||100||64 h 26 m||Show|
40* (NCAAF) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 55.5)
I was really surprised this total was as low as it was. I was glued to that FSU/Notre Dame game last Sunday. I cashed my ticket on FSU and the points, but the one thing that really stuck with me, was the talent Notre Dame has at the skill position. I knew Michael Mayer was going to be a weapon, but Kevin Austin and Kyren Williams are big time playmakers.
They made former Wisconsin QB Jack Coan look like a serious Heisman threat, as he completed 26 of 35 for 366 yards and had 4 TD passes. I wonder if people have a hard time not referring back to the Coan they saw at Wisconsin. All I know, I liked what I saw out of him in Week 1.
I think when you have doubt about a team's QB, you aren't as quick to back them. I think it possibly has Notre Dame a bit undervalued right now. I would definitely lean laying the points with them. However, I think the much safer bet is on the OVER 55.5.
If the Irish are as dynamic as what I'm expecting, there's a chance they could put up 50. Keep in mind, they had 38 points and a 18-point lead going into the 4th quarter last week. They were outscored 18-0 in the 4th and needed OT. They are not taking their foot off the gas.
I just don't know that Toledo has the kind of talent you need to slow down an offense like this. The MAC is also now the bottom of the barrel in conference hierarchy, having been passed by both the Sun Belt and C-USA. Last 3 times the Rockets have faced a Power 5 team they have given up 38, 49 and 52 points respectively.
As for Toledo's offense, I think they are to help us out and put up some points to really push this past the mark. As much as I was impressed with the talent on ND's offense, I'm really concerned about their defense. They gave up 38 points and 442 yards to a FSU team coming off a 3-win season. Who knows what those numbers would look like if Mike Norvell would have just started McKenzie Milton at QB.
Toledo has 10 starters back from an offense that put up 35.0 ppg and 494 ypg last year. Only once in the last 7 years have they not averaged 35 or more. I mention they give up a lot vs Power 5 teams, but they scored 24, 24 and 30 in those games. If they give us 24, this should be over by the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 55.5!
|09-11-21||Pittsburgh -3 v. Tennessee||41-34||Win||100||69 h 10 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Pitt -3)
I'm going to take the Pittsburgh Panthers as a mere 3-point road favorite against the Tennessee Volunteers. I was shocked to see how much love the Volunteers were getting in this spot. The consensus over at Covers show 65% of the ATS bets on Tennessee.
This is not a good Vols team and a 38-6 win at home over Bowling Green in the opener doesn't change that. A big thing to note is that while they won the game by 22 points, they only led 14-6 at the half.
You also got to look at how bad that Bowling Green program has been in recent years. They didn't win a game last year. They went 0-5 in the MAC, where they were outgained by 150 yards/game and lost by an average score of 45-11.
I just think it would have been a lot more lopsided for me to think anything differently about this Tennessee program in 2021. It's simply put, a full on rebuilding year under new head coach Josh Heupel.
I was much more impressed with Pitt's 51-7 win over UMASS. I know UMASS isn't any better of a program than Bowling Green, but its the matter in which the Panthers took care of business. After watching this team, I question myself on why I gave out a lean last week on Pitt U7 for their win total.
With that said, I think it's worth noting how important it is to not hold onto your beliefs you had on teams before the season. You got reevaluate every team each week of the season. Teams are going to be better or worse than you think.
I was really impressed with Pitt's offense. They had great balance with 375 thru the air and 223 on the ground. Usually when a team blows out a team like they did, they end up just running for like 300+ yards. How much they threw says a lot about the confidence and aggressiveness the Panthers have in their offense with Pickett and all those weapons at the skill positions.
Tennessee is a prime example of what I was just talking about in offensive numbers in blowouts. Vols had 326 rushing yards, but only had 145 passing yards. Pitt is always a strong team against the run and figure to continue to be under head coach Pat Narduzzi. They held UMass to 42 yards on 27 attempts. I would be shocked if they don't load the box and force Tennessee to beat them in the air.
It really just comes down to the fact that I think the Panthers offense is going to be able to move the chains and I really question the Vols ability to keep pace. Let's also not forget that under Heupel, Tenn is going to play at a really quick tempo. That works if your offense is elite. It's a real problem when you struggle to score because your defense can't hold up for 4 quarters. Give me the Panthers -3!
|09-11-21||Miami-OH v. Minnesota -19.5||26-31||Loss||-110||62 h 39 m||Show|
40* (CFB) Vegas Oddsmakers HUGE LINE MISTAKE (Minnesota -19.5)
This isn't a game I thought I would be on, as I thought the Gophers would be way overpriced after how well they played against Ohio State. I think the thing that has kept that from happening is the news that Minnesota did in fact lose star RB Mohamed Ibrahim to a season-ending injury.
Really unfortunate for the Gophers, but I don't think his absence is a big deal against a team like Miami (OH). I was really impressed with the Minnesota offensive line in that game against Ohio State. It's not going to matter who is at RB with the holes they are going to create against this RedHawks front 7. Cincinnati ran for 247 yards and 3 scores against Miami (OH) last week, averaging 8.0 yards/carry.
I also thought there was some positives to take from that Gophers defense and how well it held up for the early part of that game. Ohio State only had 17 points with less than 6 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. The talent, size and speed of the Buckeyes was simply too much to contain for 60 minutes.
The RedHawks totaled just 278 total yards. Starting quarterback AJ Mayer was 9 of 28 for 109 yards. I just don't think Miami (OH) is built to play from way behind and more times than not when they get down and have to press the margin is only going to get bigger. Give me the Gophers -19.5!
|09-10-21||UTEP +27 v. Boise State||13-54||Loss||-120||94 h 53 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Friday Night ATS SLAUGHTER (UTEP +27)
I just think there's too much value with UTEP at +27. Boise State is just one of those small conference teams that the public holds above all the rest. Most people won't hesitate to lay the big number against a UTEP program that gone 5-39 the past 4 years.
That's even after a 31-36 loss to UCF in Week 1. It certainly doesn't look bad to only lose by 5 to a team that's expected to be as good as the Knights. The problem is, a lot went right for Boise State in that game. They couldn't have got off to a better start, going up 21-0, all of it starting with a 100-yard INT return for a TD.
UCF outgained them 573 to 283 (-290). That's really really bad. That tells me right away the Broncos might not be as good as we thought. They are in the 1st year of a new head coach (they have had so many good hires at head coach..they are bound to hit a dud). Could also be without their star RB George Holani.
On the flip side, there's reason to believe this year's UTEP team will be a lot more competitive than the previous versions. UTEP is 2-0. They beat New Mexico State 30-3 in Week Zero and defeated Bethune-Cookman 38-28.
Beating a FCS team by only 10 when you are a 20.5-point favorite doesn't look great, but they have a 470-333 edge in total yards. You also got to think they were looking forward to this game. UTEP doesn't get a lot of prime time exposure, certainly not against a team with the prestige of Boise.
Head coach Dana Dimel has been building this thing from the ground up at UTEP. He's a disciple of Bill Snyder (was OC for 9 years prior to coming here). It's now year 4, which means pretty much the entire roster have been recruited to play his style.
They got 11 starters back on offense and 8 more on defense. It's by far the best team Dimel has had since he's been here. Their 3 wins last year were more than they had the previous 3 years combined and 3 of their 5 losses were by 10 or less, including a 4-point loss at La Tech and 2-point loss at North Texas.
Can they win this game? Probably not. It will be interesting to see how Boise State responds. That was such a massive game against UCF. If they seriously wanted to play in a New Year's 6 bowl (I'm pretty sure they did), they needed to win that game. It also adds to the importance of next week's game at home against the Big 12's Oklahoma State. I just don't see this ending up in a blowout. Give me UTEP +27!
|09-09-21||Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 51||Top||29-31||Win||100||82 h 30 m||Show|
50* (NFL) - Thursday Night Football VEGAS INSIDER (Over 51)
I just don't love the side in this game. I don't trust Dallas, but don't want to lay it with Tampa Bay either. The better bet in this game is on the total and for these two go OVER the number of 51.
It's really a no-brainer if you ask me. You got two of the most talented offensive teams in the NFL going head-to-head.
Tom Brady and the Bucs offense got off to a slow start in 2020, but it didn't last long. After scoring a mere 3-points against the Saints in early November, Tampa Bay put up at least 24 points in each of their last 11 games, scoring 30+ in each of their 4 playoff games.
The Bucs have their entire offense back. They finished last year 7th in total offense and 3rd in scoring. They should be even better the second go around together.
It also doesn't hurt they will be facing one of the least talented defenses in the league in the Cowboys. Nothing Dallas did in the offseason screams they are going to be improved.
It's going to be up to Dak Prescott and the offense to outscore teams to win. Something they are more than capable of doing. Dallas has a plethora of talent at wide receiver. While they have mentioned wanting to run more to help the defense, their strength is throwing the football.
They also aren't going to have a choice against this Bucs defense. TB also brings everyone back on defense and last year they led the league in run defense, giving up 80.6 ypg.
Even if the Cowboy's offense gets off to a slow start, they are built to play from behind and can score in the blink of an eye. I see a final score of something along the lines of TB 38 - DAL 28. That's more than two TDs than the number we are playing. Give me the OVER 51!
|09-06-21||Louisville v. Ole Miss -9||Top||24-43||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Louisville/Ole Miss MAX UNIT Top Play (Ole Miss -9)
I'm will gladly lay the -9 with Ole Miss in Monday's Week 1 finale against Louisville. It's a neutral site game (Atlanta) and the big news here is that the Rebels will have to play without head coach Lane Kiffin (Covid).
No question not having Kiffin on the sideline knocks Ole Miss down a notch, but I really feel like the line has already been adjusted. I think this game should have been closer to Rebels -13.5 with Kiffin.
The biggest thing with Kiffin is he also serves as the OC and calls the plays. Luckily for the Rebels they got a bright OC that can fill the void in Jeff Lebby and a experienced and talented QB in Matt Corral. Ole Miss rushed for 211 ypg last year and with a deeper and more talent RB group running behind one of the better offensive lines in the SEC, they don't figure to need to call great plays to exploit this Louisville defense.
The Cardinals only gave up 26.6 ppg and 369 ypg in 2020, but that's a bit misleading as they actually gave up 31 or more points in 5 of their 11 games, 3 times giving up 40+. They figure to a much weaker unit this year, as they lost 5 of their top 7 tacklers.
Not only do I think Louisville will have a hard time slowing down the Rebels' offense, I also got big concerns here with the Cardinals offense. Louisville gets back a talented dual threat QB in Malik Cunningham, but he loses 3 of his biggest playmakers from last year in RB Javian Hawkins, WR Tutu Atwell and WR Dez Fitzpatrick. They will be up against what I think is going to be an improved Ole Miss defense that returns 9 starters and will now be in the second year under DC D.J. Durkin. Give me the Rebels -9!
|09-05-21||Notre Dame v. Florida State +7||Top||41-38||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Notre Dame/Florida St MAX UNIT Top Play (FSU +7)
I will gladly take my chances with the Seminoles as a 7-point home dog against Notre Dame on Sunday. I think the number here has been inflated quite a bit with the Irish, coming off their playoff run last year. Not to mention there's a lack of respect out there with Florida State after a 3-6 campaign in 2020.
What people have to remember with last year's Seminoles team, they were transitioning to a new head coach during a pandemic. I got all the confidence in Mike Norvell getting this ship back on track after Willie Taggart nearly sunk it.
Typically it's not until year 3 that a new coach really sees the fruits of his labor, but Norvell sped up the process by going out and getting a bunch of transfers that can help him win now. The biggest being fromer UCF star quarterback McKenzie Milton. If he's anything like what he was before that leg injury, this offense is going to be a lot of fun to watch.
He also sprinkled several transfers on defense, including two SEC guys in Georgia's Jermaine Johnson and South Carolina's Keir Thomas to the defensive line. This d-line group has been the talk of practice. If they can slow down ND's run game, they can slow down the entire offense.
The Irish brought in a transfer QB in their own in Wisconsin's Jack Coan. I know Coan had decent numbers with the Badgers, but so much of that was because of how much defenses had to respect the run. He's not bad, but he's playing to lose you the game. He's not the guy that puts your offense on his back. I also think he could be on his back a lot, as the Irish lost 4 starters on the o-line, 3 of which were taken in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft.
Defensively they had to replace defensive coordinator Clark Lea, who left for Vandy. Everyone is raving about the hire of Cincinnati's Marcus Freeman. I'm not saying Freeman won't be good, but I need to see it to believe it. Luke Fickell is the defensive genius that has made the Bearcats so good on that side. Freeman came over with Fickell in 2017, so he's got to show me he can do it without the brains behind the scheme.
I just think this more evenly matched the number would suggest, especially with this being a night game at Doak Campbell. It's going to be electric in Tallahassee tonight. Give me Florida State +7!
|09-04-21||BYU v. Arizona +12.5||24-16||Win||100||56 h 22 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Late Night Situational ATS MASSACRE (Arizona +12.5)
I'm willing to take a shot with Arizona as a 12.5-point dog to BYU on a neutral site. I just don't think the Cougars should be laying double-digits, but they are because they just went 11-1 last year and Arizona didn't win a game at 0-5.
A lot has changed for both teams. None bigger than the quarterback position at BYU, where they have to replace a big time talent in Zach Wilson. Just look at all the hype around Wilson already in his rookie year with the Jets. I just think the Cougars are poised to take a major step back offensively.
Defensively, in a year where everyone is bringing back 8-10 starters on both sides, they only get back 4, losing 7 of their top 10 tacklers. They are going backwards on this side as well.
I know Arizona has a lot of questions, but they can't be any worse than they were last year. I think there's reason to be optimistic they will be better under new head coach Jedd Fisch, who has spent the last few years in the NFL. They also snagged Don Brown after he was fired at Michigan to be their defensive coordinator and signed Pete Carroll's son Brennan Carroll to be the OC.
I think the Wildcats are going to come out extremely motivated and I give them a pretty good shot here at pulling off the upset. Give me Arizona +12.5!
|09-04-21||Georgia +3 v. Clemson||10-3||Win||100||54 h 32 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmaker STEAMROLLER (Georgia +3)
I will take my chances with Georgia as a 3-point dog against Clemson in an absolute monster game to open the season. I was all over the Bulldogs last year once J.T. Daniels took over at quarterback. I think with him under center and the defense that they got, Georgia is in prime position to run the table and win the SEC.
It's hard to say a lot of bad things with Clemson, but I just wonder if he's as good as people think. I know he had that great game against Notre Dame, but I think that had a lot to do with the Irish mentally not giving the Tigers passing attack as much respect with Trevor Lawrence out.
Expecting him to be as good as Lawrence is expecting a lot. Not to mention, Clemson lost an elite back in Travis Etienne and their top two receivers (Etienne was 3rd in receiving). I just think the Tigers are going to struggle offensive in this game, while I think Georgia will be able to move the ball. Give me the Bulldogs +3!
|09-04-21||San Jose State v. USC UNDER 60||Top||7-30||Win||100||51 h 55 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Non Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK (UNDER 60)
I really like the UNDER 60 in Saturday's non-conference matchup between USC and San Jose State. The total here is suggesting a shootout, but I'm not convinced that will be the case.
I know USC has a really good quarterback in Kedon Slovis, but he's got a lot of new faces it receiver. He gets back his top guy in Drake London, but his second and third favorite targets are gone and two guys that were expected to start are not expected to be available for this game.
You also have to look at what they will be going up against. San Jose State went 7-1 and won the MWC title behind the play of their defense. The Spartans only gave up 19.9 ppg and 346 ypg last year and have 10 of their 11 starters back.
If they can just keep USC from going off for 40+, it's going to be hard for this to get to 60. That's because the Trojans are absolutely loaded on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line and at linebacker.
For San Jose State to score, they are going to have to have a ton of big plays in the passing game. I just don't see it. They get back starting QB Nick Starkel, but he's got to make due without his top two targets from last year in Bailey Gaither and Tre Walker. Those two had 86 catches for 1,352 yards and 8 scores. Give me the UNDER 60!
|09-04-21||UL-Lafayette v. Texas UNDER 58.5||18-38||Win||100||51 h 37 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 58.5)
I like the UNDER 58.5 in Saturday's matchup between Texas and Louisiana. I just think there's enough question marks with these two offenses to have a total pushing 60.
Let's start with the Longhorns. Texas has to replace one of their better QBs in the history of this program in Sam Ehlinger. He was the heart and soul of that offense last year and now it's on the shoulders of freshman Huson Card.
Let's also not forget the Longhorns are learning a whole new offense under new head coach (also calls the plays) Steve Sarkisian. He was really good at Alabama, but a lot of that was simply talent.
You might be asking what questions I got for a Ragin' Cajuns offense that brings back 10 starters from a team that put up 33.6 ppg and 422 ypg in 2020. It's easily the loss of their top two running backs Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas. These two combined to rush for 1,636 yards and 18 TDs. That was in just 11 games. I just don't trust quarterback Levi Lewis to carry the load.
The other big thing is these are two teams that figure to be pretty good defensively. Lafayette only gave up 22 ppg and 355 ypg last year and we really saw how that talent stacks up when they went on the road and held Iowa State to just 14 points and 303 yards in a shocking 31-14 upset of the Cyclones. Give me the UNDER 58.5!
|09-04-21||Indiana v. Iowa -3||6-34||Win||100||78 h 7 m||Show|
40* (NCAAF) - No Doubt Sharp Money ATS BLOWOUT (Iowa -3)
I’m going to take the Iowa Hawkeyes as a 3-point home favorite against the Indiana Hoosiers. I highly recommend betting this now, as I could see this moving to Iowa -3.5 across the board.
I just think Indiana is a bit overrated coming into the 2021 season. The Hoosiers had a magical 2020 season that saw them get as high as #9 in the country and finish an outstanding 8-0 ATS. They went 6-1 in Big Ten play last year, but were actually outgained by 4 ypg in conference play. They had a 36-35 win over Penn St where they were outgained 488 to 211 and a 14-6 win against Wisconsin where they were outgained 342 to 217.
One thing I don’t think is getting enough attention is the fact that Indiana’s starting QB, Michael Penix is coming off an ACL injury he suffered in November. I have major concerns with him being able to play at the level needed at least to start the year. Not to mention he’s playing behind one of the least talented offensive lines in the Big Ten.
Another factor for me is how Indiana’s offense matches up with Iowa’s defense. The Hoosiers were 12th out of 14 Big Ten teams in rushing and most of their big plays came via the passing game. I definitely see them being one-dimensional against a stingy Iowa defense that has been one of the better defenses in the country at stopping the run the last few years. Not to mention, passing on this Hawkeyes defense will be no easy task, as Iowa has one of the best secondaries not in just the Big Ten but the entire nation.
Defensively Indiana is going to be solid, but I think they could have a hard time stopping what figures to be a balanced offensive attack. Iowa has one of the best backs in the Big Ten in sophomore Tyler Goodson to go along with an underrated offensive line. The only real question with the Iowa offense is sophomore QB Spencer Petras, but all signs so far in spring and fall practices is that he’s a much improved player.
Let’s also not forget Iowa is a team that finished the year on a 6-game winning streak after suffering heartbreaking losses to Purdue and Northwestern by a combined 4 -points. They were only outgained in one game all season and that was by a mere 19-yards.
Lastly, you got to factor in where the game is being played. Iowa has one of the better home field atmospheres in college football at Kinnick Stadium. Indiana did win 3 of 4 on the road last year with no fans, but historically have not been good, as they are just 18-33 away from home over the last 10 seasons. Give me the Hawkeyes -3!
|09-04-21||West Virginia -3 v. Maryland||Top||24-30||Loss||-108||50 h 20 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Top Play (West Virginia -3)
I love West Virginia laying a mere 3-points on the road against the Terps. I think the Mountaineers are a legit dark horse contender in the Big 12 this year. The Mountaineers went just 4-4 in conference play last year, but outgained opponents by an average of 89 ypg.
West Virginia has a very young and talented offensive line, a very underrated signal caller in junior Jarret Doege, get back a 1,000 yard rusher and their top two wide outs. This will be as good a Mountaineers offense as we have seen under 3rd year head coach Neal Brown.
They also have an outstanding defense that returns 8 starters from a unit that only gave up 20l.5 ppg and 291 ypg.
Maryland is a Big Ten bottom feeder with a lot of question marks. I think people give the name a little too much respect when it comes to Tua's younger brother Taulia Tagovailoa. He was okay in his 4 starts last year, but if he was anything like his brother Alabama wouldn't have let him leave town. I also have a lot of questions with the o-line and lack of running game.
Defensively they don't figure to be all that great. They are more experienced on the d-line, but lack talent. Same thing at linebacker and in the secondary. They gave up 32.0 ppg and 430 ypg last year and their 5 games were against Northwestern, Minnesota, Penn State, Indiana and Rutgers. I think they are way overmatched in this game. Give me the Mountaineers -3!
|09-04-21||Penn State +5.5 v. Wisconsin||16-10||Win||100||47 h 47 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Early Bird ATS SLAUGHTER (Penn St +5.5)
I think we are getting some really good value here with Penn State at +5.5. Nothing against Wisconsin, I just think the Nittany Lions are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country.
They weren't as bad as their record would show last year. They had two losses to Indiana and Nebraska where they outgained them by more than 200 yards. They also finished with a -8 turnover margin, which was by far their worst since 2014.
I think the offense is going to be greatly improved with Noah Cain back at running back and a veteran signal caller in junior Sean Clifford. Defensively they not only are one of the top units in the Big Ten, but the entire country.
Wisconsin is getting a lot of hype behind redshirt freshman quarterback Graham Mertz, but he was really up and down last year. Badgers went 3 straight games against Northwestern, Indiana and Iowa where they didn't score in double-figures. Their defense is good and should dominate a lot of the teams in this conference, but I think they will struggle with the skill players of Penn State.
I would have the Nittany Lions -1 on a neutral, which means this line should be closer to Wisconsin -2.5 or -3. Give me Penn State +5.5!
|09-03-21||North Carolina v. Virginia Tech UNDER 64||Top||10-17||Win||100||29 h 52 m||Show|
50* (CFB) UNC/Va Tech ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 64)
I will take the UNDER 64 in Friday's ACC showdown between North Carolina and Virginia Tech. I think there's a couple factors that have the number here way too high. One of those being how high scoring last year's game was. The Tar Heels won 56-45 as the two put up over 100 points.
The other is the perception of UNC and how potent are thinking their offense will be with Sam Howell back under center (talk he might be the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft).
I just don't see a repeat of last year. You got to remember that Va Tech had a number of defensive guys miss time because of injury or covid. They also were in the midst of a transition from legendary defensive coordinator Bud Williams. New offensive coordinator Justin Hamilton was behind the 8-ball from the get go. I wouldn't be surprised if the Hokies shaved over a TD off their 32.1 ppg they allowed last year.
I also look at UNC's defense as being much improved. Tar Heels got 10 starters back from a very young unit that suffered through some growing pains. They got the size and speed to be one of the best defenses in Chapel Hill in more than a decade.
As for Howell and the Tar Heels offense, there's no denying Howell's talents. It's not him that has me concerned about the UNC offense. It's the fact that the Tar Heels lost two 1,000 yards rushers, as well as their top two receivers (combined 1,783 yards, 14 TDs). I don't see this offense being near as potent in 2021, especially not early in the year. Give me the UNDER 64!
|09-02-21||Boise State v. Central Florida -5.5||31-36||Loss||-107||25 h 48 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (UCF -5.5)
I got no problem laying -5.5 at home with UCF as they host Boise State Thursday in a clash of two of the better Non-Power 5 programs. I just think the Broncos name recognition has them getting a little more respect than they probably should in this matchup.
I'm not saying Boise State isn't one of the top teams in the Mountain West. I just think UCF is on a different level. I loved UCF's hire of Gus Malzahn. He struggled to make Auburn a consistent contender, but that's every team's problem in the SEC West outside of Alabama. The guy went 68-35 in 8 seasons with the Tigers (3 wins over Alabama).
He couldn't step into a better situation. UCF was down last year, but still managed to go 6-4 and weren't far off from a perfect regular-season. They went 6-3 with a 8-pt loss to Tulsa, 1-pt loss to Memphis and 3-point loss to Cincinnati.
They got one of the best quarterbacks in the entire country in Dillon Gabriel and a Top 15 caliber offensive line. It's just offensive juggernaut after offensive juggernaut at UCF. The Knights have averaged over 40 ppg and more than 500 ypg each of the last 4 seasons.
Boise State will also be in the first year of a new head coach, as they had to replace Bryan Harsin after he left for none other than Auburn. The new guy is Andy Avalos. He spent the last 2 years as the DC at Oregon. He's also a hometown guy having played here and served as an assistant coach.
Unlike Malzahn, Avalos has no previous head coaching experience to fall back on. I know Boise had 9 starters back on an offense that put up 33.9 ppg, but a lot of that came against bad teams. Broncos had 40 or more in 4 games. One of those was a 52-21 win over Colorado State where they only had 291 total yards. They scored 20 or fewer 3 times. The defense gave up 30 or more in 4 of their last 6. Give me UCF -5.5!
|09-02-21||Ohio State v. Minnesota OVER 62.5||45-31||Win||100||23 h 50 m||Show|
40* (CFB) - Ohio St/Minn Total NO-BRAINER (Over 62.5)
I will take my chances with the OVER 62.5 in Thursday's Big Ten showdown between Minnesota and Ohio State. I got this one getting into the 70s, as I look for a lot of fireworks offensively from both teams.
There's plenty of skeptics out there with Buckeyes freshman quarterback CJ Stroud and his ability to keep this offense rolling without Justin Fields under center. The hype around Stroud might be a little much, but he's in the perfect situation. Ohio State is loaded at wide receiver, have one of the best offensive lines in the country and are going to be able to run the football.
I just don't think the Gophers have the speed or talent defensively to keep Ohio State from scoring at will. Not even an underrated homefield edge will be able to help them. Minnesota is in the bottom 5 in the Big Ten on the defensive line, at linebacker and in the secondary.
The only way the Gophers are keeping this close, is if they go score for score with the Buckeyes. I'm not so sure they will be able to score enough to cover the 14-point spread, but I feel pretty good about them scoring enough to push this over the total.
Minnesota's got 10 starters back on offense. They have an experienced signal caller in Tanner Morgan, a first team Big Ten back in Mohamed Ibrahim and one of the top offensive lines in the country. They will be up a very inexperienced Ohio State defense that has just 2 starters back on the front 7 and loses their top 5 tacklers. Keep in mind this is a defense that slipped last year, giving up over 400 ypg. It wouldn't shock me if the Gophers scored 30+ in this game. Give me the OVER 62.5!
|09-02-21||South Florida v. NC State OVER 58.5||Top||0-45||Loss||-110||27 h 20 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Big Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 58.5)
I love the OVER 58.5 in Thursday's matchup that has NC State hosting USF. I would be shocked if these two teams failed to hit 60 in this one.
NC State is going to have a potent offense in 2021. I really like sophomore quarterback Devin Leary. He only made 3 starts last year before being lost for the season. He threw for 890 yards with a 8-2 TD/INT ratio in those 3 starts. They got everyone back at the skill positions and a veteran offensive line.
That offense will be up against a Bulls defense that has a lot of question marks. South Florida couldn't stop anybody last year. They gave up 39.9 ppg and 441 ypg. That's with them holding the Citadel to a mere 6-points on 284 yards. They gave up over 200 ypg and 5.0 ypc against the run and opposing QBs completed 60% of their attempts.
The big key here is I think USF is going to be able to put up a decent amount of points as well. Even with 10 starters back on defense, I got big time concerns with the Wolfpack on that side of the ball. They gave up 40+ points 4 times.
As for the Bulls offense, I think they are going to be one of the most improved units in the country after averaging just 23.1 ppg and 365 ypg last year. They got one of the rising stars at OC in Charlie Weis Jr. The problem last year is it was the first year under a new staff and their just wasn't the proper time to implant the offense with the pandemic. We saw a bit of a flash of their potential in last year's finale, as they put up 46 points and nearly 650 yards (646) in a game against UCF. Give me the OVER 58.5!
|08-28-21||UTEP -9 v. New Mexico State||Top||30-3||Win||100||119 h 32 m||Show|
50* (CFB) - Saturday "Week Zero" PLAY OF THE YEAR (UTEP -9)
I got no problem laying single digits with UTEP as they open the season on the road against New Mexico State. I really think the Miners are primed for a breakout season. While they went 3-5 last year, no one is expecting much from UTEP. The Miners haven't had a winning season since 2014 and were just 2-34 in the 3 years prior to going 3-5.
Thing is, they are now in year 5 under head coach Dana Dimel. Given what he had to work with when he got here, it was going to take some time to turn this thing around. Big thing to note with last year is that they had a 17-21 loss to La Tech, 28-38 loss to Charlotte and a 43-45 loss to North Texas. A few breaks go their way and they could have easily flipped their record to 5-3. Keep in mind their only two home games last year were against FCS foes, so they had to play their 5 toughest games all on the road.
This is by far the best team that Dimel has had at his disposal. They got all 11 starters back on offense and they are really high on sophomore quarterback Gavin Hardison. It's by far the best UTEP has been on both the offensive and defensive lines. This team is going to be a really tough out in C-USA play.
As for New Mexico State, I just don't think they are any good. We are talking about a team that has won 12 games total against other FBS teams in the last 10 years. They are in year 9 under head coach Doug Martin, so there's not much reason to expect things to just magically get better. There's major questions at quarterback and what they will get out of it.
Aggies did play 2 spring games against Tarleton State (lost 17-43 as 7-pt favorite) and Dixie State (won 36-29 as a 1-pt favorite), giving up close to 500 yards in both games. They also have just 3 returning starters, when every other team in the country seems to have 15+ guys back. I don't think this will be close. Give me UTEP -9!
|02-07-21||Chiefs -3 v. Bucs||Top||9-31||Loss||-114||266 h 15 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/BUCS SUPER BOWL *BEST BET* (Chiefs -3)
This is an easy play for me on the Chiefs. I not only think the Chiefs win the game and cover, but I could see this thing getting out of hand. Kansas City had little to no problem moving the ball against the Bucs defense when these two teams played in the regular-season. The Chiefs put up 543 yards with Mahomes completing 37 of 49 attempts for 462 yards and 3 scores.
That's the thing, this Tampa Bay defense is built to stop the run. They just don't have the corners to hang with the weapons that this KC offense possess. I also think their pass rush will be negated with how good Mahomes is in the pocket.
Let's also not forget how bad Mahomes played for about 3.5 quarters of last year's Super Bowl and the Chiefs still won that game. I don't think Mahomes will play that poorly in his second Super Bowl.
As for Tom Brady and the Bucs offense, I think they could struggle. The Chiefs should be able to get pressure on Brady, as they got the guys in the secondary to matchup with Tampa Bay's weapons. Sure the Bucs could try and run the ball and might have some success, but it's only a matter of time before they have to throw to keep pace with the Chiefs offense. Give me Kansas City -3!
|01-24-21||Bills v. Chiefs -3||Top||24-38||Win||103||118 h 6 m||Show|
50* BILLS/CHIEFS AFC CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Chiefs -3
I'm shocked the Chiefs are only a 3-point home favorite in the AFC Championship Game. I feel like this should be the line if Mahomes wasn't playing, but as expected he's been cleared to play. I get the Chiefs have struggled to cover down the stretch, but we are talking about a 3-point spread with a team that is 24-1 in Mahomes last 25 starts.
That includes a win over the Bills earlier this season. A game in which the Chiefs didn't need Mahomes to be great to win, as they rushed for more yards (245) than the Bills had total yards (206). KC's defense completely shutdown Josh Allen, who had a mere 66 passing yards in the 4th quarter before finishing with a mere 122.
I just think this Bills offense is a perfect matchup for the Chiefs, as Buffalo doesn't have a running game. If you can't play keep away from Mahomes and that KC offense you are in trouble and I think the the Chiefs defense can exploit Allen's lack of accuracy. I just don't see Mahomes losing a game of this magnitude at home. Give me the Chiefs -3!
|01-17-21||Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57||17-22||Loss||-104||6 h 31 m||Show|
40* BROWNS/CHIEFS NFL TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 57)
This game has shootout written all over it. The Chiefs are going to score. Since Mahomes took over as the starter Kansas City is averaging 38 ppg when coming off a bye. Last year in their Divisional game off a bye they put up 51 points against the Texans in a game that saw a combined 82 points score. While turnovers plagued the Steelers offense last week against the Browns, Big Ben threw all over that defense. Expect Mahomes to have a field day in this one. Key here is Cleveland has the fire-power offensively to go score-for-score with the Chiefs, at least early on. The only thing that keeps this from going over is both teams having to settle for field goals instead of TDs because they are going to move the ball between the 20s. Give me the OVER 57!
|01-16-21||Rams +7 v. Packers||Top||18-32||Loss||-120||7 h 16 m||Show|
50* RAMS/PACKERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams +7)
I will gladly take the 7-points with the Rams against the Packers on Saturday. LA was my favorite sleeper pick coming into the playoffs. They lived up to the hype on Wild Card Weekend, going on the road and beating the Seahawks 30-20.
For me it's all about the Rams defense. They are so good across the board on that side of the ball. They can take away Aaron Jones and the run game and have one of the best corners in the league in Jalen Ramsey to matchup with Rodgers favorite weapon Davante Adams. There's just not a lot of other weapons out there for GB and if LA can get that pass rush going, the Rams could easily win this game outright. Give me Los Angeles +7!
|01-11-21||Ohio State +9 v. Alabama||Top||24-52||Loss||-112||27 h 20 m||Show|
50* OHIO ST/ALABAMA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ohio State +9)
I cashed in a huge profit with Ohio State +7.5 in their 49-28 win over Clemson in the Semifinals and I will unload on the Buckeyes once again as an even bigger dog against Alabama. I just think there's some big SEC bias going with this number. I just don't think the SEC was as strong from top to bottom this year as it has been. Florida was the second best team in the league and they only beat the Gators 52-46 in the SEC title game. Ohio State is a much better defensive team than the Gators and every bit as potent on the offensive side of the ball.
I not only think the Buckeyes cover the number, but I think they got an excellent shot here of winning the game outright. It doesn't happen often, but when Ohio State is a dog you almost have to back them blindly. The Buckeyes are 15-3 ATS last 18 games they were listed as the underdog and have won outright 8 of the last 9 times they were a dog. Adding to this, Alabama is just 12-20 ATS last 32 times they have been listed as a single-digit favorite. Give me the Buckeyes +9!
|01-10-21||Browns +5 v. Steelers||48-37||Win||100||147 h 5 m||Show|
40* BROWNS/STEELERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Browns +5)
I mentioned in the podcast I do during the week that road underdogs were 9-1-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons on Wild Card weekend. That improved to 11-1-1 with both the Colts and Rams covering as road dogs on Saturday. While I do have some concerns with the news that the Browns will be without their head coach, I'm riding with Cleveland in this one.
I just think so many people are focusing on that and ignoring the fact that the Steelers did not play well at all down the stretch. Pittsburgh went just 1-4 in their last 5 games and in their lone win, a 28-24 victory against the Colts, they trailed 24-7 in that game.
A lot of people will point to the Steelers nearly beating the Browns in Week 17 with Mason Rudolph instead of Ben Roethlisberger. I'm not saying that they are the same quarterback, but Rudolph threw for 315 yards and 2 scores. How much more than that can you really expect out of Big Ben. He only had two games all season where he threw for more than 315 yards and he had 2 or fewer TD passes in 5 of his last 6 starts. Give me the Browns +5!
|01-10-21||Bears +10.5 v. Saints||Top||9-21||Loss||-125||144 h 33 m||Show|
50* BEARS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (BEARS +10.5)
I mentioned in the podcast I do during the week that road underdogs were 9-1-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons on Wild Card weekend. That improved to 11-1-1 with both the Colts and Rams covering as road dogs on Saturday. I fully expect the Bears to add to this red-hot trend on Sunday.
I played against Chicago as a 5.5-point home dog to the Packers in Week 17. Green Bay went on to cover in a 35-16 win, but it was not anywhere close to as big a blowout as that final score would indicate. The Packers had a mere 21-16 lead with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. Chicago outgained Green Bay 356 to 316.
This is simply no longer an anemic offense that the Bears have. When you couple their ability to now move the ball with a defense that can matchup with anyone, this team is built to keep games close and that's where the value comes in with this line at 10.5. Not to mention Drew Brees is not Aaron Rodgers, he doesn't put near the threat on the defense down the field that Rodgers does. Give me the Bears +10.5!
|01-10-21||Ravens v. Titans OVER 54||20-13||Loss||-113||140 h 1 m||Show|
40* RAVENS/TITANS NFL STEAMROLLER (OVER 54)
I got no problem taking the OVER 54 in Sunday's Wild Card matchup between the Titans and Ravens. These were two of the hottest offenses in the league down the stretch. Baltimore averaged 37.2 ppg in their 5-game winning streak to close out the regular-season. Some will argue that came against a bunch of bad teams. While the Titans are not a bad team, they do field one of the worst defenses in the league.
Fighting for their playoff lives, Tennessee allowed 34.3 ppg and 445 ypg in their last 3 games of the regular-season, giving up a ridiculous 7.3 yards/play in the process.
What you can say about the Ravens late season surge is they didn't play many good offenses in that stretch. However, the only decent one they faced was the Browns and Cleveland put up 42 points and nearly 500 yards against them. Titans scored 30 or more in 6 of their last 7 games. Give me the OVER 54!
|01-09-21||Bucs v. Washington Football Team +9||31-23||Win||100||123 h 6 m||Show|
40* BUCS/FOOTBALL TEAM NFL SHARP STAKE (Football Team +9)
No one is going to be running to the ticket window to bet Washington in the last game of Saturday's triple-header and I think it has the Football Team showing tremendous value here as a near double-digit home dog against Tom Brady and the Bucs.
History not only says Washington is the right team to back, but it says they will win this game outright. There have been two times where a team has made the playoffs after a full season of games. The 2010 Seattle Seahawks and the 2014 Carolina Panthers. Both teams won outright on Wild Card weekend, with the Seahawks defeating the Saints 41-36 as a 10-point dog and the Panthers taking out the Cardinals 27-16 as a 10-point dog. Not to mention Washington head coach Ron Rivera was the man in charge of Carolina's victory.
I'm well aware of the numbers that Tom Brady and the Bucs offense has put up in their 4-game win streak to close out the regular-season, but let's not overlook who they have played during this stretch. Two of the games were against the Falcons and the other two were against the Vikings and Lions. Those are 3 of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Lions are dead last in the league in total defense, Atlanta is 29th and Minnesota is 27th.
Washington is No. 2 in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 304.6 ypg. Their strength being against the pass, as the are No. 2 in that department, giving up just 191.8 passing yards/game. They are also No. 6 in the league in sacks, and it's no secret that over the course of his career the one thing Tom Brady struggles with is pressure and I think it could really be a problem with how much Tampa Bay likes to throw it deep.
For the entire season the Bucs only faced 4 teams who finished the league in the Top 10 in sacks. The only two teams they have faced that I think compare to the defensive front of Washington is the Saints and Rams. Tampa Bay lost all 3 of those games and in those games they only averaged 251.7 ypg. Also, Brady in those games averaged just 221.3 passing yards with a 4-7 TD-INT ratio (at least 2 interceptions in each game).
I get there's concerns with Alex Smith and the Washington offense, but they have won each of his last 5 starts and scored at least 20 points in each of those games. I think if they can get to 20 they got a great shot at covering this spread and if they can force some turnovers they got a shot to pull off the biggest upset of the weekend. Give me the Football Team +9!
|01-09-21||Rams +5 v. Seahawks||Top||30-20||Win||100||120 h 42 m||Show|
50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR (Rams +5)
I love the Rams at this price and I don't care if Goff plays or not. I like LA to win this game outright. These two split their two regular-season meetings and while Seattle won the most recent matchup at home 20-9, the Rams outgained the Seahawks 334 to 292. They outgained them 389 to 333 in the first meeting.
This for me is all about the Rams defense and them being able to get stops. LA had the No. 1 total defense, allowing just 281.9 ypg and the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing 18.5 ppg. They were No. 1 against the pass, No. 3 against the run and were No. 2 in sacks. They also were one of the better teams running the football down the stretch, averaging close to 130 ypg over their last 6 games. If it's Wofford, he makes their ground game even that more potent.
The ability to put pressure on Russell Wilson and shutdown Metcalf with Ramsey is another huge reason I like the Rams in this game. I see this as a one-score game in the 4th quarter and that's where the value really comes from with the Rams at this price. Give me Los Angeles +5!
|01-03-21||Packers -5 v. Bears||35-16||Win||100||99 h 17 m||Show|
40* PACKERS/BEARS NFL ATS NO-BRAINER (Packers -5)
I’m going to take the Green Bay Packers -5 on the road against the Chicago Bears. I just think this is too good a price to pass up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. I know the Bears need a win to ensure they make the playoffs, but this game is every bit as important to Green Bay, who needs a win to lock up the No.1 seed in the NFC. I just don’t see a Packers team that comes in having won 5 straight losing a game of this magnitude.
I’m sure there will be people looking to take the points with Chicago at home, as they see a Bears team that has appeared to finally figure things out offensively since reinserting Mitch Trubisky back in the starting role.
I’ll be the first to say I didn’t think this Bears offense was capable of scoring 30+ points in 4 straight games, but if it was going to happen it was going to be in this stretch of games. You just can’t overlook who this offensive outburst has come against. It’s been against 4 of the worst defensive teams in the league in the Lions, Texans, Vikings and Jaguars. Houston Detroit and Jacksonville rank 30th, 31st and 32nd in total defense all giving up 411 or more yards/game. Minnesota isn’t far back at 27th. Those 4 teams also all rank in the bottom 7 in points allowed.
Green Bay isn’t an elite defensive team by any means, but they held Chicago to just 10 points thru 3 quarters back in Week 12. The Bears added to garbage touchdowns late to finish with 25, but both of those came with the Packers up 31 points. Aaron Rodgers threw 4 touchdowns in that win as Green Bay finished with 41 and that was with good old Mitch at quarterback for the Bears.
I just think when you factor in who the Bears have beat up on over the last month, there’s no reason to think the Packers can’t win this game by at least a touchdown. I think they not only do that, but likely win going away. Give me Green Bay -5!
|01-03-21||Raiders v. Broncos +131||Top||32-31||Loss||-100||8 h 53 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/BRONCOS AFC WEST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Broncos +131)
I love the Broncos here as a home dog that I'm going to just take them on the money line. I don't know if you can find a much worse spot for Las Vegas. The Raiders have went from 6-3 and looking like a sure playoff contender to 7-8 and completely out of it. Hard for a team that expected to be in the postseason to show up for a meaningless Week 17 game on the road against a bad team like the Broncos.
On top of that, you have to factor in the emotional toll that the last two games have had on this team. First it was the OT loss to the Chargers at home in prime time (TNF) and then last week's debacle against the Dolphins. That loss to Miami is as gut wrenching of a loss as you are going to find.
Denver's been out of it for a while now and I just think this young team is going to show up for their last game, especially with it being at home and against a team they despise in the Raiders. Give me the Broncos +131!
|01-03-21||Chargers -4.5 v. Chiefs||38-21||Win||100||8 h 44 m||Show|
40* CHARGERS/CHIEFS NFL STEAMROLLER (Chargers -4.5)
I think we are getting a steal with the Chargers as a mere 4.5-point favorite against the Chiefs. Los Angeles comes into this game having won 3 straight and I see them being plenty motivated here, even with KC resting several players and those starters that do end up playing don't figure to stay in long.
The biggest thing for me is no Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs. A lot of people want to write off what Mahomes is doing because of Andy Reid and all the weapons he has. They ignore all the guys the Chiefs have lost on the offensive line. Mahomes is under constant pressure that not many quarterbacks could deal with. I think it's going to be a really tough game for backup Chad Henne.
On the flip side of this, the Chargers should be able to move the ball here with Herbert. He made his NFL debut against KC back in Week 2 and went 22 of 33 for 311 yards. I don't expect many of the starters on defense to play long or at all. Give me Los Angeles -4.5!
|01-02-21||Ole Miss v. Indiana OVER 65||Top||26-20||Loss||-110||45 h 43 m||Show|
50* OLE MISS/INDIANA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 65)
Whenever Ole Miss is involved it's almost always going to end up being a high-scoring game and I don't see any reason why this will be any different. I know Indiana lost starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr., but backup Jack Tuttle has had more than enough time to prepare for this game, as Indiana hasn't played since Dec. 5.
More importantly, Tuttle won't have to do it all against this awful Ole Miss defense. Indiana has a big time running back to carry the load in Stevie Scott III, who will be up against a Rebels defense that allows 211 rushing yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry.
As for the Ole Miss offense, few teams have been able to slow down Lane Kiffin's attack. The Rebels averaged 40.7 ppg (allowed 40.3 ppg). They did so with a very balanced attack, as they averaged 218 rushing yards/game and 345 passing yards/game.
The only two offense that the Hoosiers faced that are close to this Ole Miss attack is Penn State and Ohio State and they couldn't really stop either. The Nittany Lions put up 35 points on 488 yards, while the Buckeyes scored 42 and had over 600 yards of total offense. Give me the OVER 65!
|01-02-21||Kentucky -2 v. NC State||23-21||Push||0||71 h 1 m||Show|
40* KENTUCKY/NC STATE GATOR BOWL VEGAS INSIDER (Kentucky -2)
I think a lot of people are going to look at this matchup and wonder why a 4-6 Kentucky team is favored over a NC State team that finished 8-3 and are ranked No. 23 in the country.
I’m not going to sit here and say Kentucky is a great team or anything like that, but I don’t think there’s any debate that the Wildcats played the much tougher schedule. NC State’s only win over a Power 5 team that finished the year with a winning record was a 30-29 victory at Pitt, who finished up at 6-5. A game they had no business winning, as they were outgained 503 to 398.
In their 3 losses they lost by 21 to Virginia Tech, by 27 to North Carolina and by 3 to Miami. While you might be thinking a 3-point loss to the Hurricanes is something to take note of, they were outgained in that game 620 to 410.
Kentucky’s 6 losses all came against SEC teams. 4 of those were road games against Alabama, Florida, Auburn and Missouri, who all finished .500 or better in league play. They also lost at home to Georgia. The only bad loss if you want to call it that, is a 1-point loss at home to Ole Miss. I think NC State would have been lucky to win 2 games against the Wildcats schedule.
I’m sure there’s concern with Kentucky’s offense, which only averaged 21.7 ppg and 312 ypg, but again you have to factor in the teams they played. When they played some of the weaker teams they were a lot more potent offensively. They scored 41 against Ole Miss, 34 against Tennessee, 38 against Vandy and 41 against South Carolina. I’m confident the Wildcats will be able to move the ball here against a NC State defense that gave up 40+ points in 4 games.
The other thing I love with the Wildcats is that they got some NFL guys on this team that could have easily passed on this game, but instead the players have made it clear that they are 10% invested in winning this bowl game.
Finding a way to get his team fired up for their bowl game is nothing new for Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops. The Wildcats beat Virginia Tech 37-30 last year as a 2-point dog. In 2018 they beat No. 13 Penn State 27-24 as a 6-point dog and in 2017 they lost 23-24 to No. 20 Northwestern as a 7-point dog. I think we are getting a gift here with Kentucky laying less than a field goal in this one. Give me the Wildcats -2!
|01-01-21||Ohio State +7.5 v. Clemson||Top||49-28||Win||100||29 h 8 m||Show|
50* OHIO ST/CLEMSON SUGAR BOWL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ohio State +7.5)
I love the value here with Ohio State as a 7.5-point dog against Clemson. I believe we are seeing a big overreaction with this line because of how the Buckeyes struggled with Northwestern in the Big 10 title game, while the Tigers cruised to an easy win over Notre Dame. At least that's the story the media is portraying. I think Northwestern is a better opponent than people realize and Notre Dame is one of the biggest frauds out there.
I really think this line should be 3 maybe 3.5 in favor of Clemson. I would not be surprised at all if Ohio State won this game. These two played last year in the playoffs and the line for that game was Clemson -2.5. The Tigers won by a final score of 29-23, despite the Buckeyes outgaining them by almost 100 yards.
It doesn't happen often, but Ohio State has been money as a dog, going 20-7 ATS in their last 27 as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points and have won these games on average by a final score of 28.2 to 23.9. Give me the Buckeyes +7.5!
|01-01-21||Cincinnati v. Georgia -6.5||21-24||Loss||-113||21 h 56 m||Show|
40* CINCINNATI/GEORGIA PEACH BOWL SHARP STAKE (Georgia -6.5)
I think we are getting a steal here with Georgia laying less than a touchdown against Cincinnati in the Peach Bowl. The Bearcats are 9-0 and blew a bunch of teams out early in the year, but you can't ignore who they played, especially in comparison to the Bulldogs. We also see Cincinnati barely hold on to beat UCF (won 36-33) in their regular-season finale, as well as Tulsa (won 27-24) in the AAC title game.
The same Tulsa team that just lost to a Mississippi State team that went 3-7 in SEC play. Some might argue that Georgia won't be motivated to play, but I'm just not buying it. If that was the case they would have had more guys opt out than they did.
This is a team that really elevated their play once JT Daniels took over at quarterback. I think it gave this team a big spark and they treating the end of this year as the first step to what they want to accomplish in 2021. Give me the Bulldogs -6.5!
|12-31-20||Mississippi State +100 v. Tulsa||28-26||Win||100||2 h 27 m||Show|
40* MISS ST/TULSA ARMED FORCES BOWL STEAMROLLER (Mississippi State +100)
I just can't help myself here with Mississippi State at basically a pick'em against Tulsa. I got nothing but respect for the Golden Hurricane. I won a decent amount of money on Tulsa this year, but I just think they are going to have a really tough time against a much more talented Bulldogs team that I believe will be motivated to show up and play well.
It was not the best first year for Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach, but this is a team that got much better as the season went on. Most notably when they replaced starting quarterback K.J. Costello with freshman Will Rogers. He's one of several freshmen who emerged late in the year for the Bulldogs offense. Having young guys that are looking to build on something for next year, is a big reason why I think they show up here.
Mississippi State has a good defense that I feel can really make things difficult on average Tulsa offense. The one power 5 team that Tulsa played this year was Oklahoma State and they only could muster 7-points on 278 total yards in that game.
Another huge factor here that I don't think is getting enough attention is the fact that Tulsa's star defensive player, linebacker Zaven Collins has opted out to prepare for the draft. Collins is a special talent and likely will go in the 1st round. He's a guy that makes everyone else around him better because of not only what he can do, but how much attention the opposing offense has to pay to him. Give me the Bulldogs on the money line +100!
|12-30-20||Florida v. Oklahoma -2.5||Top||20-55||Win||100||52 h 53 m||Show|
50* FLORIDA/OKLAHOMA COTTON BOWL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Oklahoma -2.5)
I was quick to jump on Oklahoma at -2.5 once the news came out that Florida was going to be down their top 4 receiving threats in Kadarius Toney, Trevon Grimes, Jacob Copeland and Kyle Pitts. Those 4 guys accounted for 174 of the 296 receptions the team accounted for this season. Not to mention 34 of the 45 receiving scores.
I also want to point out that I would have been on the Sooners here even if these guys were playing. I really like what I saw out of Oklahoma down the stretch. Freshman quarterback Spencer Rattler made huge strides over the course of the season, as did the Sooners defense.
You have to factor in the emotional state for this Florida team. This is a Gators team that going into their Dec. 12th game against LSU was in the mix for a playoff spot. They found a way to get up for that game against Alabama in the SEC title game, but I just don't see them being interested at all in this game against Oklahoma. Give me the Sooners -2.5 and for those that missed out on the number, I would still take Oklahoma at -7, but it would be a 40* instead of a 50* bet.
|12-29-20||Oklahoma State -2 v. Miami-FL||37-34||Win||100||147 h 13 m||Show|
40* OK ST/MIAMI CHEEZ-IT BOWL VEGAS INSIDER (Oklahoma State -2)
I’m going to take the No. 21 ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2) against the No. 18 ranked Miami Hurricanes in Tuesday’s Cheez-It Bowl held at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL.
After watching the effort that Miami put forth in their 62-26 loss to North Carolina in their regular-season finale, I just have a really hard time seeing this team showing up for this game against the Cowboys. All they are going to be thinking about is getting this season over with and figuring out their New Year plans for Thursday.
Not showing up for bowl games is kind of thing for this program. Last year Miami was shutout 14-0 as a 7-point favorite against Louisiana Tech. They year before they lost 35-3 as a 2-point favorite to Wisconsin.
In that finale against the Tar Heels they let UNC rack up 778 total yards with 554 of those yards coming on the ground. Almost all of those coming from two players, as the Tar Heels Michael Carter had 308 rushing yards and Javonte Williams wasn’t far behind with 236.
That defense that was a complete no show has since lost two of their best defensive players in defensive ends Quincy Roche and Jean Phillips.
I expect more of the same here with Oklahoma State running wild on this Miami defense. I know the Cowboys have had their star back Chuba Hubbard leave the team to prep for the NFL, but honestly he wasn’t producing up to expectations anyway. Junior Dezmon Jackson rushed for 235 yards against Texas Tech and 118 against TCU before he gave way to freshman Dominic Richardson in the finale and he responded with 169 yards and 3 scores on 23 carries against Baylor.
I know the Oklahoma State defense had some bad showings, but for the most part they were solid. In fact, they held all but 3 of their opponents under 30 points this season. They only gave up 22.4 ppg, holding their opponents on average a TD under their scoring average.
Lastly, Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy has a history of getting his team to show in bowl games, Oklahoma State has covered in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 bowl games. That includes 3 outright wins as a dog. Give me the Cowboys -2!
|12-28-20||Bills v. Patriots UNDER 47||38-9||Push||0||9 h 28 m||Show|
40* BILLS/PATRIOTS NFL SHARP STAKE (Under 47)
I like the UNDER 47 between the Bills and Patriots on Monday Night Football. These two teams only combined for 45 in the first meeting and that was with 17 points being scored in the 4th quarter. It was a 14-6 game with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter.
I know the Patriots are completely out of it, but I don't see them laying down at home on MNF against a division rival. On top of that, Belichick's defensive mastermind has been a thorn for Buffalo's Josh Allen. In Allen's 4 starts against the Pats the Bills have only averaged 15.8 ppg and that dips down to 14.5 ppg in two games at New England. He's only completed 50.4% of his attempts with an average of 183.0 ypg (3-6 TD-INT ratio).
On the flip side of this, you have an anemic New England offense led by Cam Newton. The Pats really don't offer much in the passing game. I expect them to try and ugly up this game by running it a lot and keeping Allen and the Bills offense off the field. Either way, hard to expect a lot out of this offense, which has scored just 15 points in their last two games combined. Give me the UNDER 47!
|12-27-20||Broncos v. Chargers -3||Top||16-19||Push||0||20 h 47 m||Show|
50* BRONCOS/CHARGERS AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH (Chargers -3)
I love the Chargers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Broncos. After a season filled with finding ways to lose games, LA has flipped the script the last two weeks with a 20-17 home win over the Falcons in Week 14 and a thrilling 30-27 win at Las Vegas last week. I not only think the trend continues, I think they win here easily.
The Broncos have been decimated with injuries in their secondary, most notably at the corner position. Denver has not only lost both starting corners, Bryce Callahan and A.J. Bouye, but Kevin Tolliver, Duke Dawson and Essang Bassey have all suffered season-ending injuries. They also won't have one of their top pass rushers in Bradley Chubb. That's a big problem against talented rookie quarterback Justin Herbert.
On the flip side of things, Denver won't have their best back in Phillip Lindsay to take advantage of weak Chargers run defense and you can't trust Drew Lock at all. I just don't see the Broncos being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Give me the Chargers -3!
|12-27-20||Colts -1.5 v. Steelers||24-28||Loss||-105||95 h 42 m||Show|
40* COLTS/STEELERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -1.5)
Pittsburgh comes into this game 11-3 and currently tied for the 2nd best record in the AFC, while the Colts are 10-4 and in a dog fight with the Titans for the top spot in the AFC South. Not many times are you going to see an 11-win team in the month of December as a home dog. I just think that right there tells you how bad it is right now with Pittsburgh.
It crazy that just a few weeks ago the Steelers were the talk of the NFL as the lone unbeaten team at 10-0. The downward spiral started when they lost 23-17 at home to Washington after leading in that game 14-0. Then came a 26-15 loss at Buffalo, which I don’t think surprised a lot of people given how well the Bills have been playing. Then the unthinkable happened, they lost as a 14.5-point favorite to an awful Bengals team that was starting 3rd string quarterback Ryan Finley, who finished the game 7 of 13 for 89 yards.
I’m sure there are going to be some that give Pittsburgh a pass. It’s easy to do when you have an 11-3 team. I just don’t think it’s a wise move. I just don’t think this is something that the Steelers can just snap out of. The writing was on the wall way before the losing started to happen, but a cupcake schedule covered up a lot of flaws.
The defense that carried this team early has been decimated with injuries, Big Ben is not playing well and a lot of that is he has to do too much. Steelers are 31st in the NFL in rushing and they just don’t have the weapons like they use to on the outside.
I don’t see them doing anything on the ground against a Colts defense that is one of the best in the league against the run. That’s going to make it really tough on the Steelers to sustain drives and I just feel that Indy’s renewed running game is going to be able to wear down the Steelers defense and secure a big road win on Sunday. Give me the Colts -1.5!
|12-27-20||Falcons v. Chiefs OVER 52.5||14-17||Loss||-113||17 h 31 m||Show|
40* FALCONS/CHIEFS NFL STEAMROLLER (Over 52.5)
I see quite a bit of value here with the OVER 52.5 between the Chiefs and Falcons. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense are really clicking in the 2nd half of the season and should be in for a big day here against an Atlanta defense that is giving up 6.3 yards/play on the season.
The even bigger key is that the Falcons aren't a team that's going to try to run the ball and play keep away from the Chiefs offense. Matt Ryan and company will take the challenge head on and try to go score-for-score with KC. Something they are very capable of doing, as this is far from a dominant Chiefs defense. KC also does a really poor job of putting pressure on opposing QBs so Ryan is going to have time to attack the Chiefs secondary down the field.
OVER is 11-3 in the Chiefs last 14 games in the 2nd half of the season vs a team that is giving up 5.65 or more yards/play (average combined score in these games is 63.5 points) and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 at home vs teams who average 235 or more passing yards/game (average score in this situation is 61.3 points). Give me the OVER 52.5!
|12-26-20||49ers v. Cardinals -5||20-12||Loss||-117||7 h 7 m||Show|
40* 49ERS/CARDINALS NFL NO-BRAINER (Cardinals -5)
I just can't help myself with Arizona laying less than a touchdown. The 49ers were eliminated from the playoffs with last week's 33-41 loss to the Cowboys and for a team that played in the Super Bowl last year, finishing out these last two games could prove to be quite a challenge. I know they are getting Kittle back, but he's likely on a play count and there's just too many injuries on both sides for it to make that big of a difference.
This is a must-win for Arizona, who currently is 1-game up on the Bears, who play the Jags on Sunday. Keep in mind the Cards have to play at LA in Week 17 and the Rams will likely need that game for the NFC West title. Chicago on the other hand could be playing at home against a Packers team that has nothing to play for.
There's really no excuse for Arizona to not win by at least 7 here. While they only won by 4 in the first meeting, that was back in Week 1 when the 49ers were still healthy. I just think the sharps are playing the number with SF and it's not the right move given the circumstances in Week 16. Give me the Cardinals -5!
|12-26-20||Western Kentucky v. Georgia State -3.5||Top||21-39||Win||100||7 h 36 m||Show|
50* WKU/GEORGIA ST LENDINGTREE BOWL MASSACRE (Georgia St -3.5)
I really like Georgia State as a small favorite in the LendingTree Bowl against Western Kentucky. The Sun Belt is way better than they get credit for and have really shown out so far in bowl play. C-USA on the other hand is way down this year. C-USA has already had 4 teams play in bowls and all 4 lost. Of those 4 teams, 3 failed to score more than 17 points. Two of those matchups came against Sun Belt teams with App St beating North Texas 56-28 and Georgia Southern beating La Tech 38-3.
Georgia State doesn't get mentioned with the top dogs in the Sun Belt, but they probably should. Yes, they got annihilated by Coastal Carolina 51-0, but they took Lafayette to OT, before losing and had a lead late in the 4th quarter on the road against App State before losing.
Western Kentucky went 5-6, but didn't have a FBS win against a team with a winning record as they beat Middle Tenn (3-6), Southern Miss (3-7), FIU (0-5) and Charlotte (2-4).
Hilltoppers have one of they worst offenses in the country and will be playing without their top wide out. Panthers have an explosive offense that put up 32.7 ppg and can beat you with both the run and the pass. I just feel like this number should be closer to a touchdown not a field goal. Give me Georgia State -3.5!
|12-25-20||Vikings v. Saints OVER 50.5||33-52||Win||100||28 h 3 m||Show|
40* VIKINGS/SAINTS NFL SHARP STAKE (Over 50.5)
I'm going to take the OVER 50.5 in Friday's NFL matchup on Christmas Day. I just think we are going to see quite a bit of scoring from both teams. Minnesota has a laundry list of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. That front 7 they are going to send out will look nothing like what they had hoped to start the year.
I think that's a big edge for Drew Brees and the Saints. While New Orleans is down some receivers, they are going to want to get this offense going before the playoffs. They should be able to run at will, plus Brees should be able to dink and dunk with those backs against a bunch of inexperienced linebackers.
Not to mention we could see absolutely no effort from Minnesota on defense, as they just had their playoff hopes all but crashed in last week's loss to the Bears.
As for the Vikings offense, they got some weapons to work with and few are better a meaningless stats than Kirk Cousins. They could also catch a big break here with NO's best pass rusher Trey Hendrickson questionable, as well as free safety Marcus Williams (really no reason for Saints to rush either guy back). Give me the OVER 50.5!
|12-25-20||Marshall v. Buffalo -4||10-17||Win||100||26 h 2 m||Show|
40* MARSHALL/BUFFALO CAMELLIA BOWL MASSACRE (Buffalo -4)
This is a matchup of two teams that failed to deliver in their conference title game. Buffalo lost 28-38 to Ball State as a 12-point favorite, while Marshall fell 13-22 at home to UAB as a 4.5-point favorite. For me this was an easy play on the Bulls.
I thought the 5 interception game against Rice for Marshall quarterback Grant Wells was something he would be able to move past from, but clearly that wasn't the case. Wells somehow looked even worse against UAB. He didn't complete a single pass in the 1st half of that game. With the Thundering Herd's top RB, Brendon Knox, opting out, I just wonder how this Marshall offense will score.
The Herd do have a solid defense, but you could start to see the offenses inability to move the ball wear on them in that game against UAB. They gave up 216 rushing yards in that contest. If they aren't better against the run here they could be in trouble. Buffalo has a dynamic back in Jaret Patterson. It certainly won't help that Marshall's top linebacker Tavante Beckett decided not to play. He's really the heart and soul on that side of the ball. Give me Buffalo -4!
|12-24-20||Hawaii v. Houston OVER 59.5||Top||28-14||Loss||-105||5 h 43 m||Show|
50* HAWAII/HOUSTON NEW MEXICO BOWL TOP PLAY (Over 59.5)
I'm going to take the OVER 59.5 between Hawaii and Houston on Christmas Eve. I just don't see either team putting up of a fight on the defensive end. That's because I don't see either defense being able to slow down the run game.
Hawaii hasn't been able to stop the run all season. The Rainbow Warriors go into this game allowing 231 rushing yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry. Houston is slightly better, allowing only 173 yards/game and 4.3 yards/carry, but they will be without two of their best players in linebacker Grant Stuard and defensive end Payton Turner. Stuard is a massive loss as he's the one guy that you can always count on being around the ball. His 61 tacklers are 32 more than the next best player on this team.
I know wind could be a bit of a factor, but I don't think it will be enough to keep these offenses from putting up points. When you can run the ball, your chances of finishing drives with TDs and not FGs goes up dramatically. I also think both teams are going to have to sell out on the run, which should leave some big opportunities in the pass game. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|12-23-20||Georgia Southern -6 v. Louisiana Tech||38-3||Win||100||5 h 9 m||Show|
40* GA SOUTHERN/LA TECH NEW ORLEANS BOWL VEGAS INSIDER (Georgia Southern -6)
I will lay the 6-points with Georgia Southern in the New Orleans Bowl. This is quite the matchup, as you have both teams dealing with some serious quarterback problems. Both teams will be without their starters and the Eagles are also down their top backup. The fact that Georgia Southern is down to their 3rd stringer might seem like a big deal, but he's got some playing time and simply the quarterback position isn't as big a deal for them as it is most teams.
The Eagles are a run-first team. They average 48 rush attempts to just 14 pass attempts per game. They also run it very well, averaging 262 yards and 5.4 yards/carry. That run game should be in full force against a Louisiana Tech defense that has allowed 300+ rushing yards twice in their final 3 games.
As for the Bulldogs, they got no run game to speak of, as they come in averaging a mere 98 yards/game and 2.8 yards/carry on the ground. This is also a very strong Georgia Southern defense that was great against the run and can get after the QB. It's why I think them not having their starting QB is such a big deal. Give me the Eagles -6!
|12-22-20||Central Florida +6.5 v. BYU||23-49||Loss||-110||9 h 45 m||Show|
40* UCF/BYU BOCA RATON BOWL STEAMROLLER (UCF +6.5)
I actually like UCF to win this game, so backing the Knights at +6.5 was a no-brainer for me. I know BYU had this great season and come in ranked No. 16 in the country, but I'm sorry the Boca Raton Bowl is the last place this team wants to be.
The Cougars had their eyes set on a New Year's Six Bowl, but a loss to Coastal Carolina in their second to last game ended those dreams. They did bounce back with a 28-14 win over San Diego State, but were lucky to win that game, as the Aztecs blew several scoring opportunities and outgained BYU 399-384.
UCF didn't have the season they were expecting, but it almost feels like people are sleeping on the Knights 6-3 record. UCF's 3 losses came to Tulsa by 8-points, Memphis by 1 and Cincinnati by 3. Everyone wants to talk about how good BYU's offense is, UCF averaged more points (44.3 ppg) and yards (586 ypg) and did so playing a much tougher schedule.
While BYU could have a hard time finding motivation for this game, I think UCF will be extremely motivated to remind everyone just how good they are against a Top 20 opponent. Give me the Knights +6.5!
|12-21-20||North Texas v. Appalachian State UNDER 68||28-56||Loss||-110||1 h 22 m||Show|
40* N TEXAS/APP ST MYRTLE BEACH BOWL VEGAS INSIDER (Under 68)
I think the total has climbed up enough that the value is now on the UNDER at 68. North TExas has been a team that has found themselves in a lot of high-scoring games, but I just don't think this game will be one of them. The Mean Green lost their biggest offensive threat in wide out Jaelon Darden, who had 74 catches for 1,190 yards and 19 TDs. No other player had more than 25 receptions and the rest of the team accounted for a mere 6 receiving scores.
Appalachian State is also a team that wants to run the ball and dominate the time of possession. While their figures to be some big holes and long runs for the Mountaineers against this North Texas defense, I still think we stay below the number. Keep in mind App State has a good defense, so it may just be the Mountaineers who are scoring and you need both teams to hit a total like this. Give me the UNDER 68!
|12-20-20||Chiefs -2.5 v. Saints||Top||32-29||Win||100||7 h 10 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chiefs -2.5)
I just can't pass up on the Chiefs at -2.5. Kansas City is in control of the No. 1 seed in the AFC and are not going to take their foot off the gas these final 3 games. The big news for this game is that Drew Brees is returning from injury. I'm a bit shocked Brees is back this early and I just wonder what he's going to be able to do and how he will respond to a hit.
I'm sure they are going to try and rely heavily on their run game, but that only works if the defense can keep Mahomes and the KC offense in check. We have also seen time and time again teams who try to play keep away with the run game, they get up early, but can't sustain it for a full 4 quarters.
Another big thing for me is Mahomes wasn't great last week against the Dolphins with 3 interceptions. I can guarantee you that game has been itching at Mahomes all week. Great players almost always respond after a bad showing and I think that's what we get here. Give me the Chiefs -2.5!
|12-20-20||Bears v. Vikings -3||33-27||Loss||-120||119 h 57 m||Show|
40* BEARS/VIKINGS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Vikings -3)
|12-20-20||Texans +7.5 v. Colts||20-27||Win||100||4 h 54 m||Show|
40* TEXANS/COLTS NFL ATS STEAMROLLER (Texans +7.5)
I like the value here with the Texans catching 7.5-points on the road against a division rival. I think the perception with Houston is they have thrown in the towel after last week's embarrassing loss to the Bears. That performance wasn't pretty, but it was also to be expected after a crushing loss to the Colts the week before. If not for fluke fumble inside the 10-yard line in the final seconds, there's a very strong chance the Texans would have scored and beat Indy outright.
There's definitely going to be some motivation here for revenge, but there's also motivation to play spoiler with how important this game is to the Colts in winning the AFC South.
Another thing with last week's game against the Bears, Houston was down basically all their best skill players. They are going to get a few guys back for this game and with Deshaun Watson at quarterback they will be able to move the ball. Texans had over 300 passing yards in that previous game against the Colts. Give me Houston +7.5!
|12-20-20||49ers -3 v. Cowboys||33-41||Loss||-122||4 h 49 m||Show|
40* 49ERS/COWBOYS NFL SHARP STAKE (49ers -3)
I like this spot and price with San Francisco. You have the 49ers coming into this game off back-to-back losses as a slim favorite, while the Cowboys enter off their best win of the season, as they crushed the Bengals 30-7 last week. The thing is the 49ers two losses came against a red-hot Bills team and a surging Washington squad. Dallas' blowout victory was against the reeling Bengals, who have been a dumpster fire offensively since losing Burrow.
Part of the problem in San Francisco's two most recent losses is they couldn't get the run game going against the strong defensive fronts of Buffalo and Washington. That's not going to be the case here. Dallas is awful against the run. On the flip side, the 49ers defense has continued to hold their own no matter who they have healthy and this Cowboys offense is one they should have success against. Give me San Francisco -3!
|12-20-20||Bucs v. Falcons +7||31-27||Win||100||4 h 46 m||Show|
40* BUCS/FALCONS NFL MONEYMAKER (Falcons +7)
I felt very fortunate cashing with the Bucs last week against the Vikings. I thought when this line came out that maybe the books were trying to get us to take the Falcons, but the more I looked into it, the more it just feels like Brady and the Bucs are being overvalued.
I just don't see Atlanta laying down in a division game, so while it's clear that Tampa Bay is the only team with something to play for, I expect the Falcons to be extremely motivated to play spoiler. You also have to like Matt Ryan and the weapons they have against a Bucs secondary that has a way of giving up big plays down the field. I'm not saying Atlanta pulls off the upset, but I wouldn't be shocked if they did. Give me the Falcons +7!
|12-19-20||Panthers +8 v. Packers||16-24||Push||0||11 h 0 m||Show|
40* PANTHERS/PACKERS NFL NO-BRAINER (Panthers +8)
This just feels like a few too many points for Green Bay to be laying against Carolina on Saturday. Even though all Teddy Bridgewater does is cover the spread, the betting public can't help themselves when it comes to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, especially when they are rolling and playing at home. It's what has allowed the books to inflate the number here.
It's very similar to last week against Detroit with the Packers laying 9-points on the road to a Lions team that can attack their weak secondary. Carolina can do the same and will always be in this game because of it. The backdoor will be wide open in the 4th quarter if needed, though I think the Panthers are going to be in it the whole way. Keep in mind the only team to beat Carolina by more than 8 is the Bucs.
Also, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are off a road division win and have won 75% or more of their games are a mere 8-31 (20%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me the Panthers +8!
|12-19-20||Tulsa +14.5 v. Cincinnati||Top||24-27||Win||100||30 h 1 m||Show|
50* TULSA/CINCINNATI NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Tulsa +14.5)
I absolutely love the value here with the Golden Hurricane as a 14.5-point dog against the Bearcats. No disrespect to Cincinnati and what they have been able to do this season, but I think the number here is extremely inflated. Not only is Tulsa good enough to cover, they can win this game outright.
Everyone wants to talk about how good the Bearcats defense is and it's really good, but Tulsa isn't far behind. Cincinnati gives up 308 yards/game and 4.2 yards/play. The Golden Hurricane only allowed 328 yards/game and 4.5 yards/play.
This is by far the best defense that Cincinnati's offense has faced this year, as they have played about as easy a schedule in terms of defenses faced as you can. I really think this is going to be a defensive battle and the fewer points scored the more valuable the 14.5 we are getting becomes. Give me the Golden Hurricane +14.5!
|12-19-20||Stanford v. UCLA OVER 59||48-47||Win||100||29 h 55 m||Show|
40* STANFORD/UCLA NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Over 59)
I look for UCLA and Stanford to have little to no problem hitting the 60-point mark on Saturday, which makes the OVER 59 an easy play for me. Chip Kelly finally has the Bruins offense performing up to what we would expect, as they come in averaging 33.5 ppg behind a very balanced attack. UCLA is averaging 220 yards/game and 4.9 yards/carry on the ground and 230 yards/game with a 64% completion rate in the passing game.
That high-powered offense will be up against a Stanford defense that has really struggled. While they have held each of their last 3 opponents under 30 points, those 3 were all bad offensive teams in Cal, Washington and Oregon State. The Cardinal gave up 35 in each of their first two games against Oregon and and Colorado and I'm confident they give up at least that in this one.
UCLA just allowed 43 in their last game to USC and have also given up 38 to Oregon and 48 to Colorado, so it's not like the Bruins are much better on the defensive end. Stanford's offense has been able to move the ball with Mills at quarterback and he should have a big game here against a soft UCLA secondary. Give me the OVER 59!
|12-19-20||Boise State v. San Jose State OVER 55.5||20-34||Loss||-110||27 h 30 m||Show|
40* BOISE ST/SAN JOSE ST NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Over 55.5)
I really wanted to take the touchdown here with San Jose State, but I think the much safer play is on the OVER 55.5. For starters, when these two played last year, they combined for 94 points in a 52-42 win for Boise State. Both teams racked up over 460 yards of total offense.
San Jose State comes in having scored at least 28 points in each of their last 5 games and all we need here is for both teams to hit 28 points to cash the over. Boise State has scored 40 or more in 4 of their last 6 and are averaging 36.2 ppg on the season, scoring almost 11 points/game more than what their opponents give up. So while the Spartans only give up 17.5 ppg, I don't think they are slowing this Broncos offense down. Give me the OVER 55.5!
|12-19-20||Clemson v. Notre Dame +10.5||Top||34-10||Loss||-109||26 h 6 m||Show|
50* CLEMSON/NOTRE DAME NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Notre Dame +10.5)
I was shocked to see Notre Dame getting double-digits in this game. I know the Irish caught a huge break in the first meeting with Clemson, as the Tigers didn't have the services of Trevor Lawrence. Stil, I'm not buying Lawrence is going to make an 18-point difference.
Last I checked Lawrence doesn't play defense and Notre Dame put up 518 yards and 47 points on the Tigers stop unit in the first meeting. I also don't know how much more Lawrence can do offensively than his backup Uiagalelei gave them, as he threw for 439 yards and 2 scores.
I also think you have to note the edge the Irish have on both the offensive and defensively line. Clemson only managed to rush for 34 yards on 33 attempts in that first meeting, where Notre Dame had 208 yards on 40 attempts. I wouldn't be shocked if the Tigers found a way to win the rematch, I just don't think it will be by double-digits. With that said I definitely think Notre Dame can win this game. Give me the Irish +10.5!
|12-19-20||Ole Miss -2 v. LSU||48-53||Loss||-111||72 h 26 m||Show|
40* OLE MISS/LSU NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Ole Miss -2)
I’m going to take the Ole Miss Rebels -2 on the road against the LSU Tigers. I got a feeling a lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder why the heck is LSU a home dog to Ole Miss after they just went on the road and upset No. 6 Florida last week. If you have been around this industry long enough, you know when something looks off there’s usually a good reason behind it.
I definitely think that’s the case here. I just think the gas tank is going to be on empty for LSU on Saturday. After issuing a self-imposed bowl ban, it certainly felt like the Tigers treated last week’s game against Florida as their bowl game. It was also much more than that, as this team was sick and tired off all the negative media they were getting because of how they weren’t living up to the lofty expectations they set winning the National Championship last year.
Regardless of the bowl ban and all that, I still would have looked to fade LSU in this spot. It’s going to be near impossible for the Tigers to bring that same energy and intensity they took the field with last week into this game. It’s just human nature to have a letdown after a game like that. Keep in mind that was the Tigers third straight week facing a Top 10 opponent, as they played No. 1 Alabama the week before and No. 5 Texas A&M the week before that.
On the flip side of this, you have a hungry and motivated Ole Miss team that hasn’t played in 3 weeks, itching to get back on the field and get their crack at the defending champs. Not to mention a win here would go a long way in the Rebels securing a bowl bid. I think it’s a big deal for Lane Kiffin and his staff. Everyone missed out on a lot of practice time in the spring/summer because of Covid. It’s big for a first year coach to get those extra practices before a bowl game.
This is also a great matchup for the Rebels high-powered offense. Ole Miss has one of the best passing attacks in the country and LSU has one of the worst secondaries in the country. Even in their big win over Florida they let Kyle Trask throw for 474 yards and that was with the Gators playing without the services of star tight end Kyle Pitts. I just think with the Tigers not all that interested in playing this game, this really has the potential to get out of hand. Give me the Rebels -2!
*It's unfortunate that Ole Miss had two of their top receivers opt out for this game on Thursday, but I still like the Rebels in this matchup. I still think Ole MIss has the talent at the skill positions to make it work and I trust in Kiffin to get them in a position to succeed. More than anything I don't like the spot for LSU.
|12-18-20||Oregon +3.5 v. USC||31-24||Win||100||27 h 49 m||Show|
40* OREGON/USC LATE NIGHT PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP (Oregon +3.5)
I'm going to take the 3.5-points here with Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. The betting public is all over USC in this one, as the Trojans come in 5-0 and ranked No. 13 in the country. The Ducks are just 3-2 and only playing in this game because Washington, who won the North but doesn't have enough healthy guys to play.
I just don't think USC is as good as advertised. They could easily be 2-3 instead of 5-0, as they snuck by Arizona State 28-27, barely knocked off a bad Arizona team 34-20 and squeaked by UCLA 43-38. They trailed by the Sun Devils and Bruins by double-digits in the 2nd half needed a TD with 25 seconds to play to beat Arizona.
Oregon has the talent in the secondary to slow down USC's high-powered passing attack and should have no problem moving the ball against this soft Trojans defense. I'll take the field goal and the hook, but I'm confident the Ducks win this game outright. Give me Oregon +3.5!
|12-18-20||UAB v. Marshall -4.5||Top||22-13||Loss||-112||27 h 41 m||Show|
50* UAB/MARSHALL C-USA CHAMP *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Marshall -4.5)
I love the value here with the Thundering Herd as a mere 4.5-point favorite against the Blazers. I really feel like Marshall has been the best team in C-USA this year and would have been closer to a touchdown favorite if not for a 20-0 home loss to Rice in their last game.
That was just an all-around bad showing by the Herd, who really had nothing to play for with a spot in the title game all but locked up. It was all them beating themselves, as they held Rice to just 213 total yards. The offense just kept getting in their own way with 5 turnovers, which is a bit crazy given they had a total of 6 turnovers in their first 7 games.
UAB keeps finding a way into the C-USA title game, largely cause of the West Division being so bad. The Blazers 3 conference wins were against UTSA, Rice and Western Kentucky and only one of those was a blowout. It reminds me a lot of last year when this team had no business being in the title game and wound up losing 49-6 to FAU. Give me the Thundering Herd -4.5!
|12-17-20||Chargers +3 v. Raiders||Top||30-27||Win||100||9 h 18 m||Show|
50* CHARGERS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chargers +3)
I'm taking the Chargers and the points on Thursday Night Football. I've had it with this Raiders team. This team was right in the thick of things in the AFC playoff picture and have just not showed up to play. They got absolutely annihilated by the Falcons 43-6 in Week 13, should have lost to the Jets (won 31-28 on last second TD) and got embarrassed at home last week by the Colts 44-27.
The firing of defensive coordinator Paul Guenther should have happened before the season ever started. I don't think doing it in Week 15 is going to do a whole lot. Especially with all the injuries the Raiders are dealing with on that side of the ball. They got at least 4 starters out for this one and it's not like this defense was playing any good when they were at full strength.
Herbert and the Chargers are a difficult team to trust with how they find ways to lose games, but I think some of that is playing into this favorable line. I really think Las Angeles is the more talented team and there's plenty of motivation for them to put an end to the Raiders playoff hopes with a win tonight. Give me the Chargers +3!
|12-14-20||Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46.5||Top||47-42||Loss||-115||8 h 20 m||Show|
50* RAVENS/BROWNS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 46.5)
I love the UNDER in tonight's Monday Night Football matchup between AFC North rivals Browns and Ravens. I think we are getting value here with the UNDER after Cleveland's game last week against the Titans, which saw a combined 76 points in the Browns 41-35 win.
I know Baker Mayfield has looked great here of late, but let's not overlook the fact that his last two games have come against two of the worst pass defenses in the league in the Jags and Titans. I mean he was throwing to wide open guys against Tennessee. Baltimore isn't going to give them those easy looks and most importantly the Ravens have the front 7 that can contain the Browns ground game.
The other big thing to note is that these two combined for 44 back in Week 1 with Baltimore scoring 38. With much colder conditions, a lot more tape on each team and winds expected to be blowing at close to 15 mph, I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to score 20 points. Give me the UNDER 46.5!
|12-13-20||Washington Football Team v. 49ers -3||Top||23-15||Loss||-115||29 h 25 m||Show|
50* FBALL TEAM/49ERS ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH (49ers -3)
I absolutely love this spot and price with the 49ers against the Redskins. This is the perfect time to fade Washington off that huge win over the Steelers on Monday. I also think it's the perfect spot to jump on San Francisco after they got embarrassed by the Bills last week.
Not to take anything from Washington's win over Pittsburgh, but you can't overlook the difficult circumstances that the Steelers were in for that game. Pittsburgh was playing that game on 4 days rest, while Washington came into that game on 10 days of rest. The Football Team's 4 other wins besides the upset of the Steelers are against the Eagles, Cowboys (twice) and Bengals.
I know the 49ers are playing in Arizona as their now home, but should be more familiar with this spot having played here last week. It's also the 3rd straight game Washington will be playing away from home. I just feel like SF's defense will be the difference maker in this one. Give me the 49ers -3!
|12-13-20||Colts v. Raiders +3||Top||44-27||Loss||-106||29 h 8 m||Show|
50* COLTS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Raiders +3)
I love the Raiders catching a field goal at home against the Colts. The perception with Las Vegas has dropped dramatically over the last few weeks. People were talking about the Raiders as one of the best teams in the AFC when they nearly upset the Chiefs for a second time in Week 11. Then came a 43-6 los at Atlanta and a miracle 31-28 win at New York.
It's created the perfect buy low spot on Las Vegas this week. Right now the Raiders are sitting on the outside looking in at the playoffs. They are tied for the 8th best record in the AFC with Baltimore at 7-5, but are just 1-game back of the Colts and Dolphins. They can move into a tie with Indy and possibly Miami (play KC).
I also got some big concerns with the Colts in this one. Philip Rivers is not right as he continues to fight through turf toe and Indy is a little banged up on the defensive line. I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for the Colts playing their second straight on the road (decent travel here) and off that huge win over the Texans last week. Give me Las Vegas +3!
|12-13-20||Vikings v. Bucs -6.5||14-26||Win||100||95 h 29 m||Show|
40* VIKINGS/BUCS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Bucs -6.5)
I’m going to take Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 at home against the Minnesota Vikings. I know this is going to be a public play. I don’t care. I really like the Bucs to win this game by at least a touchdown.
I still think that even though this is a big public play, we are getting value with Tampa Bay due to the fact that they come into this game having lost 3 of their last 4. As well as the fact that the Bucs have a massive edge with them coming off of their bye week, while the Vikings just played an overtime game last week and haven’t a week off since late October.
Let’s also not overlook the fact that while the Bucs have lost 3 of their last 4, those 3 losses have come against 3 of the best teams in the league in the Saints, Rams and Chiefs.
I also love the matchup. Minnesota’s defense is below average to say the least. While they are only giving up 23 ppg over their last 5 games, they have played the Lions, Bears, Cowboys, Panthers and Jaguars, who are a combined 18-42 this year. In their previous 7 games before this easy stretch in their schedule, Minnesota was allowing 30.5 ppg.
The other big thing here for me is the Vikings offense is really centered around running back Dalvin Cook and this Bucs defense is the best in the NFL against the run, giving up just 74.2 ypg and 3.3 yards/carry. Tampa Bay also sits 6th in the NFL with 34 sacks. I just don’t see Cousins performing well under constant pressure in this game.
Also worth noting last time out the Bucs lost at home to the Chiefs and KC outgained them by 126 yards. As a head coach, Bruce Arians is 13-4 ATS off a home loss and 13-3 ATS off a game where his team was outgained by 100+ yards. Give me the Bucs -6.5!
|12-13-20||Cowboys -3 v. Bengals||30-7||Win||100||26 h 2 m||Show|
40* COWBOYS/BENGALS NFL SHARP STAKE (Cowboys -3)
I will continue to fade the Bengals in Week 14. We have went against Cincinnati in each of their first two games without rookie Joe Burrow at quarterback. We got unlucky with the Giants not covering the 6.5 in Week 12, but were able to cash last week with the Dolphins -9.5.
As bad as it's been for the Cowboys this year, I can't help but take Dallas as a mere 3-point favorite. The Bengals haven't been able to do anything without Burrow on offense. They totaled just 155 yards against the Giants and only had 196 last week against the Dolphins.
Even this Dallas defense should be able to hold their own. You also have to remember that while the Cowboys come in with a record of just 3-9, they are not of it in the NFC East. With home games against the 49ers and Eagles on deck before closing out at New York against the Giants, Dallas has to believe they can run the table here and finish 7-9. Either way I got to take them in this one. Give me the Cowboys -3!
|12-13-20||Texans v. Bears +2||7-36||Win||100||26 h 55 m||Show|
40* TEXANS/BEARS NFL ATS NO-BRAINER (Bears +2)
As difficult as it may be to back the Bears given they come into this game having lost 6 straight games, there's too much value to pass up with Chicago as a home dog against a decimated Texas team that I think will have a hard time getting up for this game after last week's crushing loss to the Colts, where they were on the verge of scoring the game-winning touchdown, only to fumble inside the 10-yard line.
That loss to the Colts all but ended any hopes of sneaking into the playoffs. While they aren't officially eliminated, it's only a matter of time, as they are 4-games back of 7th seed Indy with 4 to play and have multiple teams between them and the Colts.
Not only will the Texans likely not be all that interested given those circumstances, but this is team that plays indoors and will be playing in near freezing temps at Soldier Field in Chicago. Last time Houston played in poor conditions was at Cleveland in Week 10 and they managed just 7 points and 243 yards of total offense. Give me the Bears +2!
|12-12-20||San Diego State +16.5 v. BYU||14-28||Win||100||81 h 20 m||Show|
40* SAN DIEGO ST/BYU NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (San Diego St +16.5)
I’m going to take the San Diego State Aztecs +16.5 on the road against the No. 18 ranked BYU Cougars. If you look at the statistics and compare the talent on the field, it won’t be hard to convince yourself that BYU can cover this spread.
For me it’s not about the talent or the numbers, it’s 100% a play on the situation that BYU finds themselves in. First off, props for the Cougars taking that game last week against Coastal Carolina, but that loss completely ruined everything this team was playing for.
BYU was thinking if they win that game they are going to be in a prime position to finish 11-0 and while it probably wouldn’t be good enough to make the playoffs, it would have ensured them at worst a New Year’s bowl, where they would be matched up against a top power 5 team and could prove to everyone they deserved more love in the rankings.
There’s no more playoff talk, there’s no undefeated record at stake and they aren’t going to be in a New Year’s 6 bowl. I think it’s asking a lot from this BYU team to show up Saturday and lay it all on the line against the Aztecs.
On the flip side of this, San Diego State is going to be excited about the opportunity to end their season with a win against a Top 20 team. It will be the first time this season the Aztecs will go into a game against a ranked opponent.
I know the San Diego State offense leaves a lot to be desired, but defense is where a lack of motivation tends to really show. Defensively the Aztecs are stout as always and we just saw BYU’s potent offense struggle against a good Coastal Carolina defense. Really the only decent defense the Cougars have faced all year.
Not to mention last year, BYU managed just 3 points in a double-digit loss to San Diego State. I love the Aztecs to cover the 16.5 and I give them more than a fighters chance to win this game outright. Give me San Diego State +16.5!
|12-12-20||Auburn v. Mississippi State +6.5||24-10||Loss||-108||31 h 39 m||Show|
40* AUBURN/MISS ST NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Mississippi St +6.5)
I will gladly take my chances with Mississippi State as a near touchdown dog at home against Auburn. The Bulldogs have really shown some positive signs in their last 3 games. They beat Vandy and then lost by just 7 on the road to both Georgia and Ole Miss, covering in both games as big dogs.
An offense that could barely do anything early on after that LSU game has come to life behind a bunch of talented freshmen. Most notably freshman quarterback Will Rogers. He completed 41 of 52 for 336 yards against Georgia and then went 45 of 61 for 440 yards against rival Ole Miss.
Another thing to note here is Mississippi State has had two weeks to prepare for this game and because all these young guys are playing they should be motivated here. The same can't be said for Auburn. The Tigers are poised for a massive letdown after playing two Top 5 teams the last two weeks in Alabama and Texas A&M. With how much Bo Nix struggles on the road, I really give Mississippi State a good shot at winning this game. Give me the Bulldogs +6.5!
|12-12-20||Duke v. Florida State -4.5||35-56||Win||100||27 h 15 m||Show|
40* DUKE/FLORIDA ST NCAAF ATS STEAMROLLER (Florida State -4.5)
I just can't pass up on Florida State at this price. I know it's been another down year for the Seminoles and they will be playing for the first time since Nov. 14, but how do you not take a shot on them with what we have seen out of this Duke team down the stretch.
To say the Blue Devils defense has been bad in their last 3 games would be an understatement. Duke gave up 56 points and over 500 yards to North Carolina. They then allowed 56 points and over 500 yards to a Georgia Tech that like FSU hadn't played in weeks. Last week they not only gave up 48 points and 500 yards to Miami, they also didn't score. All 3 games their opponent rushed for a minimum of 220 yards with both UNC and Georgia Tech eclipsing 335 yards.
That's worth nothing. The one thing this Florida State offense can do well and really needs to do well to have success is run the football. They definitely should be able to do run here with dual threat quarterback Jordan Travis back in the mix.
I know Duke might be able to move the ball here against FSU, but that's no guarantee. I certainly don't think they score enough to make up for what their defense is going to allow. Give me Florida State -4.5!
|12-12-20||Georgia v. Missouri OVER 54||Top||49-14||Win||100||23 h 2 m||Show|
50* GEORGIA/MIZZU NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 54)
I'm a bit shocked the total here is this low, as I think both of these teams can and will be able to put points on the board this Saturday. This is not the same Georgia offense that we saw early in the year now that J.T. Daniels is at quarterback.
Daniels made his first start two games ago against a good Mississippi State defense and completed 28 of 38 for 401 yards and 4 scores. While he only threw for 139 yards in last weeks game against South Carolina, he only had to attempt 16 passes. They still put up 471 yards, as they racked up 332 rushing yards. In his two games as a starter they are averaging 440 yards, well above their season average of 397.
I see no reason why Georgia won't be able to put up a big number against Missouri's defense. The Tigers just allowed Arkansas to score 48 with 292 rushing yards and 274 passing yards. Really any time this Tigers defense has faced a capable offense they have struggled. They allowed 41 to Florida, 41 to LSU, 38 to Alabama and also 35 to a bad Tennessee offense.
Georgia's defense is good but not elite like it has been or was expected to be this year. Their biggest weakness is stopping the pass and Missouri has racked up 380 passing yards in each of their last two games. I really think both teams will score in the 30s and all we really need is for one to hit this total. Give me the OVER 54!
|12-12-20||Wake Forest +1.5 v. Louisville||Top||21-45||Loss||-110||22 h 23 m||Show|
50* WAKE FOREST/LOUISVILLE *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Wake Forest +1.5)
I really like Wake Forest in Saturday's game at Louisville. I think we are getting a great price on the Demon Deacons because it's been almost a month since we last saw them play. Wake Forest last played at North Carolina on Nov. 14. A game they nearly won outright as a double-digit dog falling 53-59.
The only other losses for the Demon Deacons came in their first two games when they lost to Clemson 37-13 and at NC State 42-45. This team is a couple plays away from being 6-1.
Wake Forest can move the football and put up points. They come into this game averaging 39.3 ppg a full 8 points over what their opponents have given up on average (31.3). That offense will be up against a Louisville defense that has allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 4 games. The only exception being a game against an awful Syracuse offense.
While Wake Forest did allow a whopping 59 to UNC, they had gone 4 straight games prior to that matchup allowing 23 or less. Louisville's had one of their better wide outs opt out in November and just this week saw another opt out in Chatarius Atwell.
Another huge concern I have with the Cardinals is there was a lot of players/fans that weren't happy with the fact that head coach Scott Satterfield talking to South Carolina about their open job, as he's only in year two with Louisville. I just don't see the Cardinals being motivated to play here. Give me Wake Forest +1.5!