Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-22-18 | Giants +4.5 v. Falcons | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #475 Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Atlanta Falcons @ 8:15 ET - This line looked funny to many when it first was posted as, even though the Falcons have had a rather tough start this season, they are still at home here and Atlanta was in the Super Bowl two seasons ago and made the playoffs last season. Considering those factors as well as the fact that the Giants went 3-13 last year and have started this year 1-5, it is no wonder why Atlanta is getting plenty of love from the public in this one. Don't be fooled ladies and gentlemen as this game was priced this way for a reason and the sharp money is on the Giants. On Thursday night football the G-men were embarrassed by the division rival Eagles but their season is not over yet. Both Philly and the Cowboys lost yesterday and now have losing records on the season. The Giants have a shot at the NFC East first-place Redskins next week. In other words, New York knows that it just takes back to back wins to be right back in the thick of things in their divisional race. After getting embarrassed in the game against the Eagles last Thursday, the Giants D is undoubtedly going to bring a huge effort this week and they do have the better defense in this match-up with the Falcons. Although Atlanta has a bye on deck, they are actually just 1-5 ATS when playing the week before a bye. The Giants, when a road dog in non-divisional action, are on a 5-1 ATS run. The Giants are also on an incredible 9-0-1 ATS run when they are off a Thursday game. The Falcons are off a key win versus the Buccaneers are Atlanta is on an 0-7 ATS run after facing Tampa Bay. That means we have a combined 16-0 / 100% PERFECT edge here in favor of the road dog! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS |
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10-21-18 | Hawks +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 133-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 6:05 ET - The Cavaliers burned me on Friday night but I'll get it back here. I had the Timberwolves (-8 or -8.5) and they blew a 21-point lead and won the game by only 8 for a loss or push for my clients. Now we get a chance to fade a line move here as everyone is piling on Cleveland for their home opener. This is not a very good Cavs team. Now I am certainly not saying that the Hawks are anything special either but they are now getting a lot more points than they should be considering they are 0-2 SU just like the Cavaliers are so they will be every bit as hungry. Keep in mind they have a history of playing very well here too as they've covered each of their last 8 trips to Cleveland. Coming into this season, Atlanta's projected win total was very close to that of the Cavaliers and there is just not a huge difference right now between these two teams. I also like the fact that the Cavs have covered (to the closing line) each of their first two games but each by just half a point. Their luck runs out here as they will be doing good just to win this game let alone cover the inflated spread. The Cavaliers are on a 61-84 ATS run as a favorite. Cleveland is also 39-58 ATS in home games. Also, when off a non-conference games, the Cavs are an ugly 25-42 ATS. 10* ATLANTA |
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10-21-18 | Saints +3 v. Ravens | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #469 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 4:05 ET - A pair of hot teams matched up here but I like the value with the road dog that also has the better offense. The Saints have won 4 straight games and also are on an 8-0 ATS run in October games. The Ravens have played well this season but are still just 3-2 SU their last 5 games and they have a knack for falling into slumps as we get closer to the mid-point of the season. Baltimore is on a 3-8 ATS run in October games. The Ravens are also 2-6 ATS in non-conference games. When the Saints enter a game on a wining streak of 2 or more SU games, they have gone 9-4 ATS. Keep in mind New Orleans just had that huge MNF performance from Drew Brees and are now off their bye week. They are rested and ready while the Ravens have expended a lot of effort the past 3 weeks as all 3 games were on the road. Baltimore has defeated the Saints each of the last 3 meetings including in the Superdome against Brees and Company in 2014. That said, this triple-revenge game goes to the hungry rested road dog. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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10-21-18 | Vikings v. Jets +4 | 37-17 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 39 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #466 Sunday 8* New York Jets (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The Viking are off back to back wins against NFC foes and have a big game on deck hosting another NFC foe as the Saints are up next for Minnesota. That said, a road trip to face an AFC foe that doesn't come across as "overly imposing" is unlikely to bring out the best in the Vikings. I love grabbing "ugly home dogs" in situations like this and the Jets should bring home the cash for us. New York enters off back to back wins and, with each victory, confidence is growing. That said, unlike the Vikings, the Jets do not have a big game on deck as they face the Bears next. In other words, New York is fully focused on this game especially because they won't be home again until mid-November. Look for the Jets to bring their "A game" and they are on a 10-2 ATS run in games played in weeks 5 through 9 of a season plus the Jets are on a 6-1 ATS run as a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The Vikings are on a long-term run of 10-20 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. This is a contrarian, anti-public play as you know they'll be on the Vikings and you know what usually happens when the public has an enticing game like this to grab hold of...they usually go down in flames. Make the sharp play here. 8* NEW YORK JETS |
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10-21-18 | Titans +7 v. Chargers | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Ultra Early Smash - Rickenbach NFL Game #451 Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 9:30 *AM* ET in London, UK - The Titans are off an embarrassing 21-0 shellacking that they took at the hands of the Ravens in Baltimore last week. Tennessee has now lost back to back games and a change of scenery is absolutely the best thing that can happen for a team that is struggling at the present time. For the Chargers, the last thing they needed was a trip to London, UK as Los Angeles had been rolling with 3 straight wins and demolished Cleveland last Sunday. Now LA tries to maintain focus and momentum heading across the pond. The Titans are 4-0 ATS when they enter a game off consecutive losses. The Chargers are facing a revenge-minded Tennessee team that lost by 8 two seasons ago when these teams met in San Diego. Payback time in London is on tap Sunday but I'll gladly grab the generous points being offered. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS the week before a bye. Also, in games 5 through 9 of a season, the Chargers are 0-7 ATS when off a game where they scored more than 35 points and now facing team that does NOT have a winning record. Look for the 3-3 Titans to come up with at least the cover here. Combined edges of 15-0 ATS here in favor of the underdog! I'll take it! 8* TENNESSEE |
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10-20-18 | Oregon +3 v. Washington State | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #368 Saturday 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks (+) @ Washington State Cougars @ 7:30 ET - People will shy away from Oregon here since they're off the big win at Washington last week and it was a revenge game. However, those same people may have forgotten that the Ducks are on a mission right now thanks to a healthy Justin Herbert at QB and they have big-time revenge on their minds this week because they've been beaten badly by the Cougars each of the past two seasons! Look for Oregon to roll here as the Ducks, in my opinion, have faced tougher Pac-12 match-ups than Washington State has thus far. As a result, Oregon is the more battle-tested team in this match-up and their only loss this season (to Stanford) was truly a game the Ducks never should have lost. They've showed great resilience ever since then. I also like the fact that Washington State is 6-0 ATS this season so they're falling into public favor as a result and they're getting some extra shading in this match-up they really don't deserve. The Cougars luck at the betting window runs out this week in my opinion! The Cougars are 1-3 ATS off a bye week and 5-8 ATS as a home favorite of 3 or less points. Oregon is 46-23 in games with a line between +3 and -3. The Ducks are also 16-6 ATS in a road game with posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. 10* OREGON |
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10-20-18 | UL-Lafayette +26 v. Appalachian State | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #353 Saturday 8* UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (+) @ Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 3:30 ET - The Mountaineers are an amazing 5-0 ATS this season but that has them over-valued in this spot. Appalachian State is laying nearly 4 touchdowns here even though they're facing a UL-Lafayette team that has only struggled twice this season and those tough performances were against SEC teams. App St is a good team but they're certainly not on the level of SEC teams like the Mississippi State Bulldogs or Alabama Crimson Tide teams that beat the Ragin Cajuns. Note that in UL-Lafayette's other 4 games this season they are 3-1 and the lone loss came by just 2 points! The Ragin Cajuns have averaged 46.3 points per game in their 4 games that were against non-SEC competition. UL-Lafayette was beaten badly by App State the past two seasons but they've closed the gap this season and that has not been properly factored into this line because, right now, the betting markets are enamored with the 100% ATS Mountaineers. Appalachian State is a long-term 1-5 ATS as a favorite in a range of 21.5 to 31 points. The Ragin Cajuns are a long-term 6-3 ATS in games played in weeks 5 through 9 of a season. 8* UL LAFAYETTE |
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10-20-18 | Oklahoma -7.5 v. TCU | 52-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #383 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (-) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ Noon ET - The Sooners have averaged 48 points this season. So what's the problem in Norman? A defense that got scorched back to back weeks before their bye week. It culminated with a loss to Texas in that final game before the OU bye and that led to the firing of their defensive coordinator. The guy stepping in as in the interim, Ruffin McNeil, is a players coach and they are going to fight like hell for him on Saturday. Look for Oklahoma to put forth a huge effort on defense while the offense simply continues to roll. The Sooners are an offensive machine and TCU, now 3-3 on the season, is down some this year. The result is a road rout of huge proportions here. A little uncomfortable if you have to lay more than a TD here? Sure that is understandable but Oklahoma should win this game by at least 17 points as the Horned Frogs are averaging just 15.7 points per game their last 3 games. Texas Christian University is on a 2-16 ATS run in home games. Look for the Sooners to improve to 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with TCU. 8* OKLAHOMA |
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10-19-18 | Cavs v. Wolves -8 | Top | 123-131 | Push | 0 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #710 Friday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - Both the Cavs and Wolves were outscored at the 3-point line in their season opening losses. The difference tonight in terms of whom bounces back in Game Two of the new season has a lot to do with the home floor. The Cavaliers are unlikely to fix their outside shooting woes here. Their problems were evident in a bit of a disjointed game at Toronto where they found themselves down 20 points. As for Minnesota's game at San Antonio, they got very little from Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler didn't contribute a lot until he was involved with all of the Timberwolves last 14 points. So if Towns doesn't foul out, Butler carries over momentum from his late game play at SA, and the Wolves also don't get outscored by 15 points from beyond the arc then what happens? I'll tell you what happens. This game should turn into an absolute home blowout. We're getting extra line value here because the Cavs snuck in the back door for a late cover or push while the Wolves just missed covering their first game. Now this line is down from where it should be. Keep in mind the Wolves crushed the Cavs here by 28 points last year and Cleveland comes into this season projected to finish the year 20 games under .500 (sans LeBron James) while the Timberwolves are projected to be a winning team in the tougher Western Conference (per win totals from odds makers before the season). The Wolves are 9-4 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Cavs are 11-33 ATS when off a loss by a double digit margin! Blowout time here. 10* MINNESOTA |
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +2 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #302 Thursday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 8:20 ET - The Cardinals are 12-1 ATS as a home dog of less than 7 points when playing a non-divisional opponent. Arizona is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in home games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. As for the Broncos, under head coach Vance Joseph, they are 1-9 ATS in road games. Also, in games 5 through 8 of a season, Denver is 2-12 ATS when they are a favorite against a team that is off a SU loss by a double digit margin and that also is playing with revenge. That system fits the Cards perfectly here. Combining all the edges here and you have a 37-4 (90%) spot in favor of the hungry home dog here. Yes, both teams have been struggling this season but the Cardinals view this game as a rare chance to shine at home in prime-time action with all eyes of the football world watching. The Cards will be ready to go in a big way here. 10* ARIZONA |
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10-18-18 | Bulls v. 76ers -11 | Top | 108-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers go from playing the best team in the Eastern Conference to now facing one of the worst. Philly also goes from playing on the road in a tough venue in Boston to playing at home for their own rowdy fans. Especially with this game being their home opener, this game has blowout written all over it after the 76ers had such a tough game from the 2nd quarter on in their opening night loss Tuesday. Philadelphia is 27-15 ATS when off of a loss by a double digit margin in their prior game. Also, the 76ers are a long-term 56-30 ATS in home games. The Bulls are on a 28-57 SU run in road games and when the Sixers win as a favorite they normally cover. The 76ers are on a 47-19 SU run as a favorite and they've gotten the cash in 38 of those 47 wins. With advantages all over the floor (especially with Bulls missing Lauri Markkanen) this one turns into a home blowout. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-18-18 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Astros | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Thursday 8* Boston Red Sox Run Line (+) @ Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the games in this series have been high-scoring and that last night's 2-run margin of victory was the smallest one yet in this series. However, I have a strong inclination that today's game, being the first elimination game setting of this series, is going to be very tight all the way. Justin Verlander, of course, is a dominating pitcher. However, David Price had allowed just 7 hits while striking out 17 in his two prior starts versus the Astros before he struggled earlier in this series. I am aware of his post-season struggles as a reputation but I believe that Houston is going to be squeezing the sticks a little too tight at the plate in this one in this elimination game. It sets up to be a tight one run game in my opinion. Note that the Red Sox, at +1.5 runs, are 12-1 (92%) in their last 13 road games! I'll take it. Lay the small price to get the BoSox at +1.5 runs in this one. 8* BOSTON Run Line |
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10-18-18 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -14 | 35-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #304 Thursday 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (-) vs Georgia State Panthers @ 7:30 ET - At first glance this line looks a little on the high side. Of course you know what that means and long-time followers also know that I have had plenty of success through the years by being a contrarian. That is what I am doing here as I lay the big points but certainly it is not without good reason. The Panthers defense has been absolutely awful this season and the Red Wolves should roll. Arkansas State is 12-2 ATS as a favorite of less than 20 points when they are facing an opponent that is off a SU loss by a double digit margin. Also, the Red Wolves are on a 7-1 ATS run in October games and a 3-0 ATS run in Thursday games. Georgia State is on a 1-4-1 ATS run in SunBelt Conference games. Combined edges here are 26-4 (87%) in favor of a home blowout in this one. 8* ARKANSAS STATE |
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10-17-18 | Rangers v. Capitals -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Game #52 Wednesday 8* Washington Capitals Puck Line -1.5 vs New York Rangers @ 7:05 ET - The Stanley Cup Champion Capitals are off back to back losses and have been off since Saturday. Washington has gotten back to the basics in recent practices and they're rested and ready to take advantage of a Rangers team playing the 2nd game of a back to back here. The Rangers got a shootout win versus Colorado last night but that now means that goalie Henrik Lunqvist either has to play in back to back games or New York turns to their back-up netminder. Either option spells trouble considering how fired up the Caps are after back to back losses. Of course that is why the Capitals are a huge favorite here on the money line but we can get them at even money on the puck line (laying the 1.5 goals) and that is the way to go here as this should be a home blowout given the situation. The Rangers are 0-2 on the road this season and each loss came by a multiple goal margin. The Caps are off a home loss but faced a highly motivated and talented Maple Leafs team. Prior to that, the Capitals were 2-0 at home with the wins coming by a combined margin of 12-2. Look for another home blowout win here. 8* WASHINGTON -1.5 goals |
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10-16-18 | 76ers +5 v. Celtics | Top | 87-105 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The Celtics won 7 of 9 meetings with the Sixers last year. Boston has also won 9 straight home games against Philly. Yet the line on this season opening game opened up at just a 5. You know where I am going here as this is a perfect example of what my contrarian picks are all about. While Boston at home looks enticing it should prove out that Philly was the right side in this one! Keep in mind, Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward are back for Boston but are returning from injuries. Also, the 76ers Markelle Fultz worked hard on his shot in the off-season. He adds value to a team loaded with talent including Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and JJ Redick. Look for the highly motivated Sixers to prove to be the much hungrier team in this one and they are making some changes on defense in this one that should help them be stronger in the paint against the Celtics. Only time will tell but I feel an upset looms tonight and, keep in mind, the last 4 meetings between these teams featured a 76ers win and 3 Sixers losses but all of those Philly defeats came by a margin of 5 or less points. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3.5 | 40-43 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 Sunday 8* New England Patriots (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The set up here is perfect. The Chiefs are 5-0 this season. Kansas City is also off of a "phony final" where they beat the Jaguars by 16 but were outgained by 78 yards. Patriots QB Tom Brady will be in "attack mode" all night on Sunday as the Chiefs pass defense is allowing a ridiculous 343 passing yards per game this season. New England has revenge here as they lost by 15 points to KC here in Foxboro to open up the 2017 NFL season. That is a loss that Bill Belichick certainly hasn't forgot and he rates a significant edge over Andy Reid in my opinion. Just like when he was with the Eagles, Reid has done a good job in most regular season games and then struggles in the post-season. Of course this is not a post-season game but it will play out like one as this is a big game in terms of vying for early season AFC supremacy. I don't see Belichick and Brady losing this game! The Chiefs are a long-term 22-37 ATS against AFC East teams. The Patriots are 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and also 11-2 ATS in games where their posted total is 49.5 points or higher. Of course this game has a total much higher than that so that angle is definitely in play here and in a high-scoring game I'll take the veteran QB and the better head coach over the dynamic (but still inexperienced) Pat Mahomes and a head coach that is not known for winning games like this. Week 1 of last season was an aberration. 8* NEW ENGLAND |
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10-14-18 | Jaguars -3 v. Cowboys | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Jaguars are off a 16 point loss at Kansas City but Jacksonville actually outgained the Chiefs by 78 yards! The Jags were simply done in by turnovers but that is unlikely to be an issue today. Jacksonville turned the ball over 5 times last week but the Cowboys have forced only 4 turnovers TOTAL in their 5 games this season. Dallas only lost by 3 at Houston last week but it was a deceiving final score. The Cowboys got the push ATS in that game but were very fortunate for that as the Texans failed many times in the red zone. Houston outgained Dallas by 170 yards in the game and should have the game by about two TDs. Last week's "false final" results involving both of these teams is what is leading to solid line value here. Keep in mind the Jaguars should have beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game last season but blew a big lead inexplicably. In other words this is a team that was one step away from the Super Bowl last season and we're getting them off a loss here. As for the Cowboys, this is a team that continues to be in disarray and just can't find any solid footing or consistency. Their offensive line is not near what it use to be and this will be an issue as they face the attacking Jaguars defense. Dallas has just 1 ATS win in their 5 games this season. The Jaguars appear poised to improve to 10-5 SU and ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. 10* JACKSONVILLE |
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #264 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - The Falcons have lost 3 straight games and the Buccaneers have lost back to back games so certainly something has to give here! Look for Atlanta to be the team to get back on track as they take advantage of home field and they catch Tampa Bay sluggish coming out of the bye week. Sometimes teams need a bye but when you get blasted like the Buccaneers did two weeks ago (48-10) at Chicago, it is actually better to have a chance to play the next week and get back on track. Instead TB is left wondering why they can't stop anybody as they've allowed an average of 358 passing yards per game this season! That creates a complete mismatch here with the Falcons having Matt Ryan at QB and able to take advantage of this glaring Bucs weakness. Atlanta has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and the average margin has been 10.7 points per game. Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU and ATS in their last 8 games played in domes. While the Falcons defense has struggled too, the Bucs defense has been even worse and the TB offense is starting to come back down to earth after a surprisingly successful start to this season. As for the Falcons offense, it remains a consistent threat week in and week out and that will prove to be the difference here as well. 8* ATLANTA |
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10-13-18 | West Virginia v. Iowa State +6.5 | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #176 Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7 ET - The Mountaineers are a ranked team and an undefeated team and so when they opened up as a rather small favorite here of course the betting masses jumped all over them. This has led to even more value here with an Iowa State team that is much better than their 2-3 record indicates! The key to that value is that the Cyclones have played a much tougher schedule than West Virginia has so far this season. That is why West Virginia has been a double digit favorite in 4 of their 5 games this season while Iowa State has been an underdog in 4 of their 5 games and that includes being a double digit underdog each of the last 3 times the Cyclones were a dog. Iowa State enters this game with added confidence after the big win at Oklahoma State last week. While some may expect them to now fall flat at home, this is the Cyclones only home game in a span of 5 weeks as they've been on the road for back to back weeks plus they have a bye week on deck. That said, Iowa State is going to make the most of this opportunity to host a ranked and undefeated Big 12 foe! As for the Mountaineers, they also have a bye on deck but that situation can play out much different mentally when you are an undefeated team. West Virginia is likely already thinking about their bye and could look right past a Cyclones team they have enjoyed plenty of success against in recent meetings. The Mountaineers, in fact, are known for this is in recent seasons as they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 against teams with a losing record while the Cyclones are known for stepping up against tougher competition as they are 11-2 ATS their last 13 games against teams with a winning record! 10* IOWA STATE |
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10-13-18 | Central Florida v. Memphis +5 | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #184 Saturday 8* Memphis Tigers (+) vs Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - Central Florida is ranked in the top 10 and is undefeated on the season. Of course the Golden Knights are getting plenty of attention in this spot as a result. However, 4-2 Memphis is playing this game with double revenge from last season as they lost in the regular season and in the conference championship game. Finally the Tigers get UCF in Memphis and I expect them to make the most of this opportunity. The Tigers statistically compare well to the Golden Knights and the home team has been the SU winner in each of the last 9 games Memphis has played (not including the bowl game of course). The Tigers are 16-2 ATS as a home dog of more than 3 points when facing an opponent with a winning percentage greater than .750 on the year. Also, the visitor in this series is on an 0-5 ATS run. In other words, it is a great time to fade Central Florida in this one as the angles are 21-2 ATS in favor of the Tigers in the home dog role here. 8* MEMPHIS |
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10-13-18 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg -3.5 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #664 Saturday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-) vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 2 ET - The Blue Bombers have lost both match-ups with the Riders this season and that is despite holding the yardage edge in each game! In other words it is payback time Saturday in Winnipeg and the situation is perfect. The Bombers are looking up in the standings at the Roughriders and are highly motivated as they still need to secure a post-season spot. Winnipeg also has a big rest edge here as they're OT win at Ottawa was on Friday last week while Saskatchewan is coming off of a hard-fought home win versus Edmonton that was played on Monday! The Roughriders are on an 8-15 ATS run in Saturday games and are on short rest here too. The Blue Bombers are 12-6 ATS in Saturday games, 16-8 ATS when playing with revenge, and 14-6 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Combined edges of 57-28 (67%) in favor of the home favorite here. Lay it! 10* WINNIPEG |
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10-13-18 | Oklahoma State -7 v. Kansas State | 12-31 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #193 Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ Noon ET - After the home loss to Iowa State, Oklahoma State will be in full-on bounce-back mode at Kansas State Saturday. The Cowboys also have the add motivation of revenge here as they suffered an outright upset loss as a home favorite of nearly 3 TDs in their game versus the Wildcats in Stillwater last year. Suffice to say it is now payback time! Kansas State has lost 3 straight games and their only two SU wins this season came when they were favorites in the 3 TD range. The Cowboys are 8-1-1 ATS when they are playing with revenge and facing a team that has a losing record on the season. Kansas State has been a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 7.5 points just twice in recent seasons but they lost both games and were blown out by an average margin of 12.5 points per game in those two contests. I expect another home loss by double digits here as the Cowboys get revenge. OSU is averaging 44 points per game this season while Kansas State is averaging exactly half as much. Indeed the Wildcats are averaging only 22 points per game. The Cats offense simply won't be able to keep up with the 'Boys in this one! 8* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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10-12-18 | South Florida v. Tulsa +7.5 | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #110 Friday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) vs South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET - From mid-September to late-October, this is the only home game for Tulsa. The fact that they are getting to host a conference foe that is currently a Top 25 team and it is a weeknight game with the ESPN cameras rolling just adds to the factor that the Golden Hurricane are going to be sky high for this game. Yes Tulsa's record looks bad but they've played a much tougher schedule than South Florida has and the Golden Hurricane have been done in by turnovers. Each of the last two games for Tulsa have been "phony finals" where the final score has not been commensurate with the yardage for the game. Also, the Golden Hurricane lost by just 7 points at Texas earlier this season. As for the Bulls, they won by 16 at UMass last week but allowed nearly 500 yards to the Minutemen. 5 turnovers is what led to the big win for South Florida. Their two prior wins were both by 7 points or less and those were teams they were favored to beat by 2 or 3 TDs. In other words, the Bulls are coming into this game over-valued while the Golden Hurricane are certainly under-valued at this point in the season. Look for redshirt freshman Seth Boomer to play much better in his 2nd start at home after having to play on the road last week. Tulsa was a 17 point dog at Houston in that game and led the game outright by 9 points in the 4th quarter before things came unraveled due to turnovers. This Golden Hurricane team is so hungry and has proven they can hang with teams like Houston and Texas on the road. In other words, facing USF at home is certainly not going to be as tough as a task as those games were and Tulsa covered both of those games. The Golden Hurricane are 8-2 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. South Florida is 2-6 ATS in a road game with a posted total in the range of 56.5 to 63 points. 10* TULSA |
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10-11-18 | Eagles -2.5 v. Giants | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #103 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The Eagles have won 3 straight SU in this series. With this number dropping back down to a -2.5 on Philly, there is great value with the small road favorite in this one. Philadelphia has lost back to back games SU and has failed to 4 straight games but that has led to line value in this spot. Home field has not meant a lot in this series and, that said, laying less than Field Goal with the super bowl champs is excellent line value. Yes the Eagles are banged up at RB but they still have plenty of talent at the skill positions plus a powerful offensive line and one of the better defensive lines in the league. The Giants are just 1-4 SU this season and off a disheartening late loss at Carolina after rallying back for a shot at the victory. That is a tough loss to bounce back from and this is particularly true on a short week. Look for Eagles QB Carson Wentz to deliver a huge game here and look for Philly to dominate in the trenches as Philadelphia improves to 5-2 ATS the last 7 times they've entered a game off 2 or more consecutive SU losses. The Eagles are 3-0 SU and ATS their last 3 Thursday games. The Giants are 0-2 SU and ATS their last 2 Thursday games. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-11-18 | Texas Tech +7.5 v. TCU | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Game #105 Thursday 8* Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 7:30 ET - Though QB Alan Bowman is now listed as doubtful for this game for Texas Tech, the Red Raiders are expected to have McLane Carter available as well as Jeff Duffey. The latter is very athletic and could give the TCU defense some trouble with his running ability. Keep in mind, the Red Raiders have been piling up yardage (as usual) this season no matter whom has been under center. Texas Tech enters this game having averaged 48.4 points and 591.4 yards per game on the year! While the Horned Frogs have a solid defense, it is certainly not as strong as we've seen in years past with TCU. The Red Raiders are getting as much as 7.5 here as of early game day morning and Texas Tech is seeking revenge for a 27-3 loss at home in Lubbock last season! Note that the Red Raiders did outgain the Horned Frogs in that one so the final score is truly not commensurate with the way the game played out. Also, Texas Tech won their most recent to TCU. Additionally, while the Red Raiders have perennially bad Kansas on deck, the Horned Frogs might be peeking ahead to their huge game against Oklahoma coming up next week. The Red Raiders are 6-3 their last 9 as an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. The Horned Frogs are on an ugly 2-14 ATS run in home games! 8* TEXAS TECH |
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10-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +10 | 35-9 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #102 Tuesday 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (+) vs Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 8 ET - The Mountaineers look very impressive this season but other than their season opener versus Penn State, Appalachian State has faced a very weak schedule. The Red Wolves had to face Alabama, the best team in the nation, but also have faced tougher teams than the Mountaineers in their other games. That said, the betting markets are enamored with Appalachian State here because they have a balanced offense, have put up a ton of points this season, and the Mountaineers have the better record. However, strength of schedule is super important in analyzing college football and with Appalachian State climbing all the way up to a 10 point favorite the value is with the home dog in a big way here. Consider that the Red Wolves, other than versus the Crimson Tide, have allowed an average of only 22.3 points per game in their other 4 games. Also, Arkansas State is off of a loss to Georgia Southern but they did outgain the Eagles by over 100 yards in that defeat and the Red Wolves got their offense going in a big way. A home dog in a rare primetime game nationally televised on ESPN2, you can bet that Arkansas State is ready to go here! As a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points, the Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS and they also are on a 7-0 ATS run in October games! Give me the big home dog in this one! 8* ARKANSAS STATE |
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10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints -6 | Top | 19-43 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Washington Redskins @ 8:15 ET - The Redskins are coming off of their bye week but are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 after a bye. The Saints have a bye week on deck and are 7-3 ATS when playing the week before a bye. We also have good value here in that Washington has overachieved early this season while the Saints have underachieved early this season. Yes New Orleans is 3-1 on the season but everyone remembers their opening game loss at home versus Tampa Bay and then how the Saints barely beat the Browns in Week 2. This is why New Orleans is less than a TD favorite hosting the Redskins here while last season they were favored by nearly double digits when they hosted Washington! Certainly one could argue that the Redskins have the better defense in this match-up but the Saints are the better team on offense and I expect Washington will not be able to keep up here. Keep in mind, this is just the 2nd time this season that the Redskins are on the road. Their first road game was against an Arizona team that is 1-4 on the year and playing at New Orleans is certainly a much tougher draw than facing the Cardinals at Arizona! The Saints are also 7-0 ATS in their last 8 October games while Washington is 0-4 ATS their last 4 games on Monday night football. That is an 11-0 / 100% perfect situation favoring the home team in this one! 10* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS |
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10-07-18 | Cowboys v. Texans -3 | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #476 Sunday 8* Houston Texans (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - After an 0-3 start the Texans got a key win on a last second field goal last week at Indianapolis. That is the type of victory that can really get a team going with momentum. If you haven't lived in Texas in recent years you wouldn't understand how important this match-up is to the Texans. They truly feel like they always play 'second fiddle" to the Cowboys fans in the state of Texas. After the Oilers left Houston and went to Tennessee to become the Titans even more and more fans in Texas pledged their allegiance to the Cowboys. Sure the Texans have a huge following in the Houston area but they really do get tired of being the "ugly step-sibling" to the Cowboys. That is why a non-conference match-up like this is actually a huge game for Houston especially with it being in primetime under the Sunday night lights! The Texans are averaging 336 passing yards per game the past 3 weeks. The Cowboys have averaged just 137.5 passing yards per game on the road this season. Dallas is an ugly 1-3 ATS this season. The Texans are on a 6-3 ATS run in October games. 8* HOUSTON |
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10-07-18 | Dodgers v. Braves +1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 103 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #958 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Run Line +1.5 runs (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - This is a ton of value here. The Braves are looking to avoid elimination and, even on the run line at +1.5 runs, they are available at plus money on their home field. Even if Atlanta loses a tight one by a single run, you can still cash a ticket on the run line at +1.5 runs in this one. The Braves Sean Newcomb very nearly no-hit the Dodgers here in Atlanta in late July. Yes the Dodgers Walker Buehler has been pitching well but, just like Newcomb, he does not have post-season experience. I also like having the Braves sticks at home and the Dodgers are on a winning streak but are still just 13-16 (-$14,400) this season when they enter a game on a winning run of 3 or more consecutive games. Also, Los Angeles is 38-45 (-$24,400) in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Braves are 9-5 this season when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Also, Atlanta is 17-7 in Sunday games this season. With their backs against the wall, the Braves bounce back here and get at least the "cover" in a game where I just don't see the Dodgers ever being able to establish a big lead. 10* ATLANTA BRAVES Run Line +1.5 runs |
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10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks +7.5 | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 Sunday 8* Seattle Seahawks (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - The Rams are undefeated on the season and I am not saying they necessarily lose outright here but I do feel strongly that this is going to be a very tough game for them. Of course the Seahawks are truly a shell of the team they once were but the Rams crushed the Hawks at Seattle last year 42-7. That was the worst defeat in 8 years with Carroll at head coach for the Seahawks and it came on their home field too! You know Seattle is going to be rocking for this game and motivation, emotion, home field edge are all things that can go a long way in a game like this. Seattle would love nothing more than to avenge that embarrassing loss and put the first loss into the ledger of a division rival. As strong as the Rams offense has been, they did allow nearly 400 passing yards to the Vikings last week! The week before that LA allowed 141 rushing yards. The point is that this Rams defense has certainly shown a few holes in recent games and Russell Wilson and company will be looking to take advantage. At the same time, the Seahawks defense will bring their A game. Yes they are not what they once were but the entire team will be up for this one especially after the ugly incident with safety Earl Thomas last week. Teams really "come together" after incidents like that and this team is going to rally this week. The Seahawks have won 13 of the last 18 home meetings with the Rams SU and here they're getting 7 plus the hook which is good value as Los Angeles is a great team but is a little too over-valued by the markets right now. 8* SEATTLE |
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10-07-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #453 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - The Chiefs are undefeated on the season but coming off of a short week and a last minute win at division rival Denver on Monday night. Kansas City also has a big game on deck with the Patriots! KC has won each of the last 3 meetings with Jaguars so this is a triple revenge spot for Jacksonville. Keep in mind, none of the 4 teams that KC has beaten currently have a wining record. As for the Jags, they've beaten the Patriots (3-2 and arguably better than that record indicates of course) and they lost to a Titans team that is now 3-1 on the season. The Jaguars were one of the top teams in the AFC last season and they are well aware of the undefeated record of the Chiefs here. Public bettors will be enamored with backing a home team laying just a field goal considering they haven't lost a game yet this season. The fact is that the road dog is the way to go here as Jacksonville it highly motivated and the Chiefs are truly in a tough scheduling spot. Also, as good as Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense has been, the Kansas City defense is one of the worst in the league right now while the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the league on defense. 10* JACKSONVILLE |
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10-06-18 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M -5.5 | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #382 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas A & M Aggies (-) vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Wildcats are 5-0 this season and the Aggies are just 3-2 and yet opened up as nearly a TD favorite. Long-time followers know where I am going with this one! Texas A & M has played the tougher schedule and also is very tough at home. The odds makers know this too and that is why this line is priced like this. The Aggies have had time to adjust now under new head coach Jimbo Fisher and, keep in mind, the two losses that Texas A & M has on its ledger came against Clemson and Alabama! The Aggies put up nearly 400 yards against the Crimson Tide and did reach 500 yards against the Tigers! Those are very impressive numbers for any offense going against a defense like each of those teams possess. That said, there is great value here because I don't believe the Wildcats offense can keep with the Aggies here. Kentucky has averaged just 313.5 yards per game on offense the past two weeks. Texas A & M is averaging over 500 yards per game this season despite having to play Clemson and Alabama this year! The Wildcats are off of a huge win versus South Carolina last week but 4 Gamecocks turnovers were the key to the victory as the yardage was nearly equal. This is a high value spot for a play because right now the betting markets are enamored with the Wildcats but the unranked Aggies are favored at home for a reason and they prove that to everyone here. As a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Kentucky is a long-term 7-15 ATS. The Aggies are already 4-1 ATS this season and are coming off of their first non-cover this season. That makes this the perfect time to back them! 10* TEXAS A & M |
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10-06-18 | Arizona State +3 v. Colorado | 21-28 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #355 Saturday 8* Arizona State Sun Devils (+) @ Colorado Buffaloes @ 4 ET - Of course this line looks ultra favorable to the public in terms of backing the home team. After all, Colorado is the team off to a hot start and Arizona State already has a couple blemishes on its record. The key here though, as per usual, is what you find when you dig a little deeper. The Sun Devils have played a much tougher schedule so far this season in comparison with the Buffaloes. Also, Arizona State is still hungry for that first road win under coach Herm Edwards I must admit Edwards has done a better job with ASU than I expected. One of the keys has been the assistant coaches he brought in. That has helped speed the growth under Edwards and the Sun Devils are undervalued in this spot. The Buffaloes are over-rated because of their flashy record which certainly has been helped by playing a weak schedule. Look for the hungry road dog to get the job done here and get their first win away from home under Edwards. Remember they did beat a quality Michigan State team earlier this season. Upset alert here. 8* ARIZONA STATE |
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10-06-18 | Missouri v. South Carolina +1.5 | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #336 Saturday 8* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) vs Missouri Tigers @ Noon ET - The Gamecocks QB situation is actually adding to the value here. Jake Bentley is listed as doubtful for this game but many believe he needed to benched anyway. The Gamecocks last last week's game versus Kentucky largely due to 4 turnovers and it has not been a good start to the season for Bentley. Looking at South Carolina's stats they would certainly be in much better shape if not for the sub-par play of Bentley. That has led to value in this spot. The Gamecocks are at home and hungry for a win and yet are now a home dog in this spot. Will be a huge effort from the Gamecocks against an over-rated Missouri Tigers team in this one. 8* SOUTH CAROLINA |
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10-05-18 | Georgia Tech -4 v. Louisville | 66-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Friday 8* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-) @ Louisville Cardinals @ 7 ET - The big key here is the triple option attack of Georgia Tech. This is something Louisville is not familiar with and it is going to give this defense all sorts of trouble in this one. The strength of this factor is compounded by the fact that the Cardinals have to face it on a short week too since this is a Friday game. Louisville did play well against Florida State last week but still came up just short on the scoreboard and that just adds to the frustration of this campaign for the Cardinals. Conversely, Georgia Tech comes into this game rolling with confidence after their blowout win versus Bowling Green. The Yellow Jackets have already lost outright twice in this price range (laying about 4) on the road this season but that is the same line range they are in here. Of course the odds makers know what they're doing. In other words, look for the "third time is the charm" to hold true in this case as Georgia Tech goes out and proves why they are a road favorite here. The Yellow Jackets have turned the ball over a total of just 3 times in their last 3 games. Conversely, the mistake-prone Cardinals have turned the ball over 3 times in each of their past 2 games! The Cards are on a 2-4 ATS run as an underdog and Louisville is also on a 1-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. In weeks 5 through 9 of a season, the Yellow Jackets are on a 6-2 ATS run and last week's big win is a sign that, once again, as per usual they are hitting their mid-season stride again. The option shreds the Cards defense. 8* GEORGIA TECH |
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10-04-18 | Tulsa +18 v. Houston | 26-41 | Win | 100 | 35 h 2 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Game #303 Thursday 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) @ Houston Cougars @ 8 ET - This is a revenge game for Houston and Tulsa certainly hasn't looked good so far this season so that explains the huge number posted on the Cougars as the favorite in this one over the Golden Hurricane. The reason I am going the other direction and going with Tulsa here is because they truly needed that bye week last week and I expect them to come out and play much "cleaner" football this week as they've been done in by turnovers this season. As for the Cougars, they've been killing their own defense because of their fast-paced offense. It seems to be wearing down the Houston defense and they've truly been fortunate this season as statistically they have not been as impressive as some of their final scores would indicate. The Cougars beat Rice by 18 but they allowed 439 yards in that game! They beat Arizona by 27 but only outgained the Wildcats by 20 yards! Houston also lost by 14 at Texas Tech and allowed over 700 yards in that game. The point being that, even though the Cougars are likely to put up big yards in this game, I don't expect Houston to be able to get enough stops to win this game by more than about 10 points. Tulsa will be fired up off of the bye as this a team that inexplicably went 2-10 last season and then has started slow this season. Keep in mind the Golden Hurricane outgained the Owls by over 100 yards at Temple two weeks ago and yet lost the game by 14 points. Don't be surprised if this game is much closer than many are anticipating. Tulsa is 5-0 ATS when playing the 2nd of back to back road games. The Golden Hurricane are on a 7-2 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. Houston is 0-4 ATS when off of a bye week and the Cougars are 0-3 ATS as a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. 8* TULSA |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Broncos | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #277 Monday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Denver Broncos @ 8:15 ET - The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Broncos. Adding even more value to this spot though is that Denver has gone from Super Bowl champs to 9 wins to 5 wins the last 3 seasons! While the Broncos are clearly on the way down, the Chiefs have been on an upward trajectory with double digit wins totals in each of the last 3 seasons! Kansas City could be ascending even higher this season thanks to the play of Patrick Mahomes. He currently ranks as the #1 QB in the NFL based on passer rating and Mahomes has thrown for 13 TDs without a pick on the season. As for the Broncos Case Keenum, he ranks among the league worst in QB's so far this season and he has thrown for just 3 TDs while also throwing 5 INTs. Though the Chiefs defense has struggled this season their offense has absolutely been a machine moving up and down the field. Also, Kansas City's biggest weakness (defense) is unlikely to be exposed by a Broncos offense that has had issues with drives stalling out due to turnovers and simply being inept at crucial times. That is why Denver's yardage stats look quite good on offense but they are averaging only 20 points per game. The Chiefs are nearly double that as they are averaging 39 points per game. Simply put, the Broncos just won't be able to keep up here. KC is 12-6 SU and ATS in road games and, in addition to covering 5 in a row against Denver, the Chiefs are on an overall 7-0 ATS run in regular season games. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS the last 6 times they've been an underdog of at least 3 points. That means this is a triple perfect play with angles combining for 18-0 / 100% PERFECT ATS. Monday 8* KANSAS CITY |
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09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 26-14 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #276 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:20 ET - The Steelers have defeated the Ravens three straight times. Pittsburgh lost their only home game this season so you know they're going to be ready to go here and make up for the defeat versus Kansas City two weeks ago. As for their other two games, the Steelers did have to settle for a tie versus Cleveland but that was truly a crazy finish after Pittsburgh did lead 21-7 in the 4th quarter. As for their other game (a win last week versus the Bucs), the final score was tight but the Steelers were up huge in that game. You can bet that after these disappointing finishes (blown big leads) and having lost their only game at Heinz Field so far this season, Pittsburgh is going to go a full 60 versus their hated rival, the Ravens, in this one. Of course the betting markets focus on Baltimore's big win last week and the fact that the Steelers let some leads slip away and so now the market has made the move toward Baltimore here. More often than not I like to fade the popular choice and the Ravens are attracting the money in this one. Again, Steelers will not let up against Baltimore like they did against the Browns and Lions. Also, I prefer having Ben Roethlisberger as my QB here rather than Joe Flacco as the latter tends to be turnover prone in the biggest of situations. Note also that, per the injury reports, the Ravens are the more banged up team. Baltimore is only 3-10 SU and 5-7-1 ATS the last 13 times they've been an underdog. The Steelers are 10-3 SU (9-4 ATS) the last 13 times in games their line ranges from +3 to -3. Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS when they are off of a non-divisional games and facing a divisional foe that has double revenge against them. Steelers haven't lost B2B home games since early in the 2016 season and I don't expect them to drop to 0-2 at home on the season. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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09-30-18 | Texans +1.5 v. Colts | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #253 Sunday 8* Houston Texans (+) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - The Texans are still searching for that elusive first win so definitely extra hunger here for the road team. Though Houston suffered a home loss last week versus the Giants they did outgain New York and that was also the case in the Texans prior game. Houston outgained Tennessee the prior week by over 150 yards but lost. The Texans season opening loss was at New England. The point is that based on schedule (trip to Foxboro) and a few bad bounces (past two weeks) Houston is 0-3 despite playing better than their record shows. As a result, we have great value here in going against a Colts team that was very fortunate to get a cover last week at Philadelphia. The Eagles actually outgained Indianapolis 170 yards but you wouldn't know it by looking at the final score. Again, this is leading to more value here in terms of going against the Colts with the hungry Texans. In terms of technical value, the Colts are just 1-5 SU and ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less. The Texans are 11-2 ATS in divisional action when they enter a game with a losing record, off of a loss, and they're facing a team with a losing record. Indianapolis is 1-10 ATS when they are facing a team with a sub-.400 record that is also off of a SU and ATS loss in their prior game. Combined edges here of 26-4 (87%) ATS in favor of the small road dog. 8* HOUSTON |
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09-30-18 | Eagles -3 v. Titans | 23-26 | Loss | -119 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #265 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - The Eagles got the SU win versus the Colts last week but certainly should have had the ATS win as well. Philadelphia outgained Indianapolis by 170 yards but QB Carson Wentz was a little rusty and the Eagles won the game by only 4 despite the yardage domination. This week look for Wentz to be much more sharp and the set-up is perfect here for Philly as they catch Tennessee off of a big upset win at Jacksonville. The Titans are just 1-7 ATS when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive wins. The Eagles are on a 21-9 ATS run in games played on grass. Off back to back divisional wins, Tennessee certainly could be "out of gas" for this one especially after the big upset win as a double digit dog at Jacksonville. The Titans offense struggles with the pass and relies on the run and that plays right into the hands of the Eagles who currently rank #1 in the league against the run. The Philly defense also is ready to make up for the poor effort they gave in their first road game at Tampa Bay. That loss and poor effort on the defensive end in that game plus with Wentz now back for this road game and having a game under his belt, this is the ideal spot for a huge effort from the Eagles. Considering those factors as well as the small line, look for a road rout in this one. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State +4 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #162 Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET - Though Ohio State has been getting the SU wins in recent meetings between these teams, Penn State has covered 3 of the last 4 meetings between these rivals. Also, neither one of these teams has faced a tough schedule so far this season. That said, while one could argue that the Nittany Lions are unproven so far, one should also consider that the Buckeyes have played an easy schedule thus far. That said, what sticks out in the minds of most in the betting markets is that Ohio State has dominated every single week while the Nittany Lions struggled to get past Appalachian State in week one. The key though is that PSU has responded since then with 3 straight blowout wins and they get this game at home plus they are an underdog of more than 3 points. I feel we're getting excellent line value here as a result. While it is true that Penn State has struggled at Ohio State for many years now, it is also true that they give the Buckeyes all they can handle when they meet at State College. The Nittany Lions have covered all but 4 of the last 12 meetings in Happy Valley and and they've won half of the dozen games straight-up. The public is enamored with Ohio State right now (as per usual) but they truly struggled to get past TCU and that is the same Horned Frogs team that just lost badly to Texas. The Frogs lost by 15 points and turned the ball over 4 times in that game. The point is that Ohio State may be just a little over-rated right now. The Nittany Lions are a superb 16-2 SU (and 17-1 ATS!) when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive SU wins. In recent seasons Penn State is 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Also, long-term as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points, the Nittany Lions are also 5-1 ATS! Ohio State is just 1-3 ATS their last 4 on grass. Also, the Buckeyes are 2-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The last two match-ups have been decided by a TOTAL of just 4 points! Grab the value with the home dog points in this one. 10* PENN STATE |
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09-29-18 | Texas v. Kansas State +9 | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 29 h 49 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #182 Saturday 8* Kansas State Wildcats (+) vs Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - Very tough spot for Texas and the perfect time to fade them as the betting markets generally have a tendency toward a short term memory. The Longhorns have been hot and are off of back to back wins over USC and TCU but keep in mind this is a bad spot for them. The Horns are off B2B big wins plus have their annual huge match-up with Oklahoma on deck. At the same time as Texas is over-hyped and in a bad scheduling spot, you have a Kansas State team coming in as a dangerous home underdog. Under head coach Bill Snyder, the Wildcats are known for performing well as an underdog but that hasn't been the case so far this season. That said, off of a bad loss at West Virginia where they were outgained by 146 yards but lost the game by 29 points, there is additional value with the Cats at home and hungry off of an embarrassing road loss. You can bet they'll be ready to go against Texas this week. The home team has won each of the last 6 meetings SU (and is 5-1 ATS) and Kansas State is also 5-0 SU and ATS the last 5 times they've faced the Longhorns in Manhattan. The Wildcats offense returned 8 starts on offense this season including all 5 on the offensive line and, after scoring just 6 points last week, this Kansas State team comes out with a fire lit under them this week. Look for the Wildcats to improve to 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they've been a home dog in a range of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* KANSAS STATE |
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09-29-18 | Pittsburgh +13.5 v. Central Florida | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
Afternoon Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Game #139 Saturday 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Central Florida Golden Knights @ 3:30 ET - Central Florida has rolled so far this season but they have played a very weak schedule. Pittsburgh has played a Big Ten team and a pair of ACC teams the last 3 weeks. After falling just short at North Carolina last week, the highly motivated Panthers are likely to give the Golden Knights all they can handle here. UCF is a huge favorite but is only 2-4 ATS in home games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. A lot of points expected here and that means the back door cover option is also open here should we need it. Central Florida has been susceptible to the ground attack this season and gave up over 300 yards rushing to Florida Atlantic last week. The Panthers have run for over 225 yards in three of their four games this season. Pittsburgh is a solid 7-2 in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Long-term the Panthers are 11-4 ATS when they are a road dog in a range of 10.5 to 14 points. Look for the big points to prove well worth having in this match-up as the Golden Knights finally are matched up with a tougher foe. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - The betting markets often operate on a short-term memory and, as a result, there can be excellent line value in situations like this. As of early game day morning, the line on this game has been driven up to as high as a 7.5 as many just can't stop thinking about that embarrassing home loss the Vikings just had against the Bills on Sunday. The keys to the value here are that, prior to that game, Minnesota had a tough early season schedule as the Niners (with Garappolo at QB) were certainly a formidable match-up and then the Vikings went to Lambeau Field. After having to settle for a tie at division rival Green Bay and then knowing that this big match-up with the Rams was on deck, it is not a huge surprise that he Vikes were flat against Buffalo. Of course an outright loss was not expected but some struggles were expected. The fact that Minnesota did lose outright (and bad) actually only strengthens the power of this situation here. The Vikings will be ready to go and they're taking on a Rams team that has beaten the Raiders, Cardinals, and Chargers. Those 3 teams have a combined record of 1-8 this season! I do respect the Rams but they are truly getting too much respect from the betting markets here and the fact that we can now get 7 plus the hook in this one has me raising it to a top play. In terms of long-term technical data, the Vikings are 8-4 ATS their last 12 games against the Rams and Los Angeles is on a 2-8 ATS run in Thursday games. The Vikes should improve to 4-0 ATS their last 4 games versus NFC West opponents. 10* MINNESOTA |
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09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #489 Monday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - The winless Steelers are at the 2-0 Buccaneers and the earliers lines on this game had Pittsburgh as nearly a field goal favorite. Now the Steelers are the underdog in this match-up as of early Monday morning and I love the value we're getting here with the road team. While it is true that Tampa Bay is 2-0 this season, it is also true that the Bucs have allowed an average of 376.5 passing yards per game. That porous pass defense will be trying to stop Big Ben and Company and note that the Steelers passing attack is averaging 377.5 passing yards per game thus far. Look for that match-up to be the key to this game. Yes I know that the Pittsburgh run defense has not been good so far this season but they'll be fired up in the trenches and ready to go here as a winless team on the road under the Monday Night lights. Big opportunity for the Steelers here and note that Tampa Bay managed less than 2 yards per carry in their win last week. In games with a line between +3 and -3, the Steelers are on a 9-3 SU run. Pittsburgh also is a long-term 31-10 SU in Monday night games! In games with a total of 49.5 points or more, Tampa Bay is a long-term 4-12 SU! You can see that a lot of points are expected here and I don't expect the Buccaneers to be able to keep up. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 11-2 ATS when they are a road dog and facing an opponent that is off of back to back straight up wins. Of course that system is in effect here and I am grabbing the very hungry road dog in this one. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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09-23-18 | Colts v. Eagles -6.5 | 16-20 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #462 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - The Eagles should dominate this game. Yes they have some injury issues at running back but they're getting some healthy bodies back at WR and, most importantly in terms of injuries, QB Carson Wentz is back this week. However, he is actually not even the biggest key to this play. The most significant edge the Eagles have is in the trenches because they are so strong on both the offensive line and defensive line. With the Colts having a glaring weakness in terms of their offensive line, the Eagles D can exploit this and I expect this to be a huge mismatch all game long. In truth it won't even be fair to compare Indy QB Andrew Luck to Wentz in this game because I expect the latter to have a huge edge in terms of time in the pocket and the ability to make throws after plays develop. As for Luck, he is going to need some "luck" just to evade the Eagles aggressive pass rush. Philly is at home and off of a loss and they are fired up. The fact this line is currently available at 6.5 (in a number of shops) as of Saturday afternoon is an added edge. Lay the points with the Eagles and look for a blowout as the set-up is perfect with Indianapolis off of a big road win where they are actually outgained and the Eagles off of a road loss and returning home where they have been so tough under coach Doug Pederson. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-23-18 | Raiders +3.5 v. Dolphins | 20-28 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 Sunday 8* Oakland Raiders (+) @ Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - This is the ultimate in "line metrics" that fools the betting markets but that should take care of us very nicely. The fact is that many are looking at this match-up wondering how the 2-0 Dolphins at home are laying only 3 (or 3.5 in some spots) against an 0-2 Raiders team. Of course the reason is because the odds makers know exactly what they're doing here and I firmly believe that this will be Oakland's first SU win this season but certainly am glad to grab the extra value of at least a field goal in this match-up. The Dolphins beat the Jets at New York last week but they were outgained significantly in that contest. Keep in mind that Miami's season-opening win came at home against Tennessee and the Titans yardage was roughly equal with the Dolphins in that game and plus the Titans are certainly no powerhouse. I like the fact that the Raiders have had to play the Rams and also visit Denver to open the season (and covered and should have won outright over the Broncos) while the Dolphins have played two teams that many consider to be two of the weaker teams in the NFL. We're getting a lot of line value here as a result and Oakland, statistically has been stronger than Miami so far this season but that just hasn't translated to SU wins and losses yet. Look for that to change this week! The last 18 times that the Raiders have had a line between +3 and -3, they've only failed to cover 5 times! The Dolphins have covered just 3 times in their last 11 games when off of a divisional game. Not only are they off of one, Miami has one on deck too - at New England! Perfect set up here for the road dog. 8* OAKLAND |
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09-22-18 | Air Force v. Utah State -10.5 | 32-42 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 44 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #392 Saturday 8* Utah State Aggies (-) vs Air Force Falcons @ 10:15 ET - Utah State blew a double digit lead against the Falcons last season but that game was at Air Force. That was the 3rd straight loss for the Aggies in this series and they're certainly ready for payback. Utah State is on a 7-2 ATS run as a home favorite and they are the much stronger team in comparison with Air Force this season. The Falcons have lost many key players to graduation the last two seasons while the Aggies have have one of the most veteran groups of players they've ever had. The past two seasons Air Force is 2-0 against Utah State. However, against the rest of the Mountain West, the Falcons are 2-12 ATS! You see my point? The Falcons struggle to compete against conference competition at the betting window and, in a season that is likely to be another down year for them, I feel there is great value here in going against them in this triple revenge spot! Utah State is 8-1 SU the last 9 times they've been a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. The reason that holds significance here is because the Falcons entered this season on a 7-13 ATS run and their only "big board" game so far this season was two weeks ago against Florida Atlantic. They were fortunate to get the cover as their defense was a disaster and I expect the Aggies to fully exploit that weak pass defense here. 8* UTAH STATE |
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09-22-18 | Troy -4.5 v. UL-Monroe | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #397 Saturday 10* Top Play Troy Trojans (-) @ UL-Monroe Warhawks @ 7 ET - I am well aware that there are some weather concerns in the Monroe area for Saturday. However, this side play is such a fantastic situation that I am not going to shy away from it. The hope is that any weather in the area happens earlier in the day and does not interrupt this game. UL Monroe's home stadium is FieldTurf which helps in term of drainage and avoiding a super muddy field as can be the problem on natural surfaces should there be rain in Monroe on Saturday. In my opinion Troy is still the class of the SunBelt Conference and to get them at this low of a number against a Warhawks team that has not won more than 4 games in a year since the 2013 seasons, is a great bargain! Some may be concerned about the Trojans being off the big upset win at Nebraska last week but, keep in mind, two years ago, Troy was nearly a double digit dog at Southern Miss and got the upset win over the Golden Eagles and then turned around won their next game by a 46 point margin. The Trojans last year had the huge upset of LSU and then faltered the next week as they lost outright as a nearly 20 point favorite. Trust me, lesson learned and this Trojans team is fully focused on the task at hand this week. That "task" is that this is their conference opener and Troy will be ready to go here in a big way. Also note that UL-Monroe is actually 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they've faced a team that is off of an outright win as an underdog! Of course that system fits with the Trojans off the upset of the Corhuskers as a double digit dog last week. Also, the Warhawks lost big to Texas A & M last week and failed to cover. That is noteworthy here as UL-Monroe is 1-6 ATS the last 7 times they were off of a SU loss that was also an ATS loss in non-conference action. This is the Warhawks SunBelt opener too and it is time to get serous in conference action. That favors the more talented and stronger Trojans and I am happy to lay the short number. We just need to keep the storms away from the Monroe area as much as possible. They are expected to move away during the evening hours. 10* TROY |
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09-22-18 | Ohio v. Cincinnati -8 | 30-34 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #340 Saturday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ Noon ET - The Bearcats are 3-0 SU and ATS on the season and have played well on both sides of the ball. The Bobcats are 1-1 SU but 0-2 ATS and have played an even weaker schedule than Cincinnati has. Ohio U had their season opener versus Howard and they were favored by 30 but only won by 6. The Bobcats have underachieved thus far and are allowing nearly 600 yards per game! The Bearcats are off of a confidence building blowout win over Alabama A & M last week. While that skewed their offensive stats in a positive fashion, there is no doubt the Cincy defense has played well all season as they are allowing an average of just 8 points per game and they've held the opposition under an average of 230 yards per game. Ohio U is 2-5 ATS as a road underdog in a range of 7.5 to 10 points. The Bobcats are also 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against AAC teams. Keep in mind this game is more important than a "typical" non-conference match-up. That's because these teams are located only about 150 miles apart but haven't met in over 35 years. That said, there is recruiting "turf" at stake here and Cincinnati is out to encourage future signees in the region to be a Bearcat and not a Bobcat. Take the rolling home team as the Ohio U defense continues to struggle. 8* CINCINNATI |
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09-21-18 | Washington State +5 v. USC | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Friday 8* Washington State Cougars (+) @ USC Trojans @ 10:30 ET - The whole world seems to be lining up on the Trojans here and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the value on the other side. The fact is that USC is, of course, seeking revenge here. However, that doesn't make this game any less important to Washington State. For the Cougars, this is their Pac-12 opener this season. Now, I am well aware of the fact that Washington State has played a much weaker schedule than USC has so far this season. However, the Cougars certainly were impressive in their lone "challenging" game thus far as they won by 22 as a 3-point favorite at Wyoming in Week 1. The fact is that Washington State's 3 straight blowout wins (the other two against weak opponents) has served well as a confidence builder for this team. As for the Trojans, they just can't stop the bleeding. That game at Texas should have been "the game" for them as they needed a bounce back effort after Stanford and yet they got pushed around by a Longhorns team that lost at Maryland to open up this season. The point is that there are some internal issues right now with this Trojans team and I am going to challenge them to snap out of it here because I feel they won't. USC continues to have issues on both sides of the ball and, keep in mind, the Cougars win over the Trojans last season was no fluke. Washington State outgained Southern Cal by 135 yards. USC is 0-3 ATS this season while the Cougars are 3-0 ATS. Washington State is on a 5-0 ATS run when they have Utah on deck and that is the case here. USC is on a 3-12 ATS dating back to early last season. Maybe they snap the skid and get a win here but if they do I expect it to be by a field goal or less and I like my chances with the Cougars rolling with confidence right now while USC filling up with self-doubt. The Cougars are a long-term 17-9 ATS as a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. 8* WASHINGTON STATE |
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09-21-18 | Montreal +10.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #651 Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - Last week's final score would indicate that Montreal got blown out but that was a fluke final score fueled by late defensive touchdowns for Hamilton. That sets this one up well for some additional value on the Alouettes. Even though the Blue Bombers are off of a bye week they can't help but be looking ahead to a big showdown with Edmonton next week as that is a divisional foe. Winnipeg also might be a victim of over-confidence here and look right past the Als as the Bombers have defeated Montreal 4 straight times. I love the value with the road dog in this one as it has been a road-dominated series ATS and we're able to get double digits here. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings which includes the Alouettes losing their last last visit to Winnipeg by just a single point! The visit before that Montreal won by 8 points as an underdog. We're getting great line value here as the Blue Bombers have allowed an average of 36.5 points per game in going 0-4 SU in their last 4 games! The Alouettes are 4-0 ATS as a road dog of 10.5 to 14 points. The Als are also 4-0 ATS in road games with a posted total of 52 points or more. Winnipeg is 0-4 ATS the past 4 weeks. That means we have a combined 12-0 / 100% perfect ATS mark in support of Montreal in this one. Look for Alouettes QB Johnny Manziel to be much better in his return as the starting QB here. 10* MONTREAL |
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09-20-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Browns | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -100 | 47 h 32 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 Thursday 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) Cleveland Browns @ 8:20 ET - I understand the line completely as many experts feel the Jets and Browns are equal teams and therefore Cleveland is merely favored for home field edge here. However, the fact that we can get +3 or even +3.5 with New York in some shops as of Tuesday night is a big value in this one when you consider that Browns have not won a single game since Week 16 of the 2016 season! I really like the fact that the Jets outgained the Dolphins by over 100 yards last week but yet came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard. This also helped add line value this week because, keep in mind, the Jets blasted the Lions in Week 1. As for Cleveland in Week 1, yes they did tie Pittsburgh but the Steelers gave that game away late as they blew a 21-7 lead. Pittsburgh actually outgained the Browns by 145 yards in Week 1. The Browns tie with the Steelers and their close battle with the Saints last week become less impressive when you consider both of those teams have plenty of issues as they each are still seeking their first win of the season. That said, I am certainly not saying that the Jets are not without some issues too but you can absolutely see why, per all of the above as well as New York's stat edges early this season, I am happy to back the road dog here and fade a team that hasn't even won a game since 2016. The Jets have failed to cover just once in their last five versus AFC North opponents. Cleveland was 7-4 SU through game 11 in the 2014 season. Since then the Browns are 4-49 SU! Will I fade a team that is laying 3 plus the hook in some spots and has won just 4 of its last 53 games? Yes indeed and I will elevate this to a Top Play too. 10* NEW YORK JETS |
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09-19-18 | Royals v. Pirates -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #978 Wednesday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates Run Line -1.5 runs vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - The Pirates, though mathematically still alive, certainly have slim hopes of a Wild Card berth at this point in the season. However, that hasn't stopped them from playing hard. Last night's win was their 4th straight and Pittsburgh is now 10-3 in their last 13 games. Keep in mind, the Bucs are hosting one of the worst teams in baseball in this interleague match-up and last night's loss dropped Kansas City to 22-52 on the road this season. Even though Pirates starter Chris Archer gave up some big hits versus the Brewers early in his most recent start, he settled down and pitched quite well overall. I like the fact that Archer has allowed only 13 hits in his last 17 innings while striking out 19 during this span. Also, in his last two starts versus the Royals, Archer has held them to just 3 earned runs on only 11 hits while striking out 17 over 15 and 1/3 innings. KC sends Heath Fillmyer to the mound and the Royals are 0-4 in his road starts this season as he has been rocked to the tune of a 12.40 ERA in his starts away from home. More of the same expected tonight. The Royals are 5-24 in their last 29 games versus a team with a winning record. Of course I would never lay huge juice on a money line but I love the value of the run line here with the Pirates available as low as even money by laying the 1.5 runs. Pittsburgh has won 14 of 19 interleague games this season while Kansas City has lost 13 of 17 against NL teams. 72 of the Royals 99 losses have come by 2 or more runs this season. 49 of the Pirates 76 wins have come by 2 or more runs this year. I like the odds on a home blowout in this one with Archer over Fillmyer! 10* PITTSBURGH Run Line |
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09-18-18 | Mets v. Phillies -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 125 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #902 Tuesday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs +125 vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies lost a tough one to the Mets yesterday but the Braves also lost so Philadelphia still has plenty of life in the NL East as they chase Atlanta. They now turn to their staff ace Tuesday and I expect the result to be a huge win. As you would expect, Aaron Nola is a very pricey favorite on the money line in this game but, by taking Philadelphia on the run line we actually get a nice comeback price on the Phillies in this one. Nola has allowed just 7 hits while striking out 29 in the 21 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Mets. As for New York starter Steven Matz, he was rocked for 4 earned runs in just 2 innings in his last visit to Philly. Matz has given up 4 homers in 12 innings in his last 3 starts versus the Phillies. This season Philadelphia is 9-3 when they are a home favorite in a money line range of -175 to -250. Matz is 0-2 versus the Phillies in his 4 career starts against them. Nola is 6-1 in his 8 career starts against the Mets. Take advantage of the value on the run line here and look for the Phillies to bounce back and win this one by 2 runs or more as Nola's mastery of the Mets lineup continues. 8* PHILADELPHIA Run Line -1.5 runs +125 |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Bears | 17-24 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
MNF Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #289 Monday 8* Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - Yes the Seahawks have a few injuries but that is factored into this line. We're getting great value with road dog Seattle as we go against a Chicago team that is just 1-6 ATS the last 7 times they've been a home favorite. Also, the Bears QB is Mitch Trubisky while the Seahawks QB is Russell Wilson. You can't base a play on one position but, one thing is for certain, the QB position is an extremely critical one and Seattle has a huge edge there in this match-up. Also, while Seattle's D did struggle at Denver last week they did garner 3 interceptions in that game and hung tough in a 3-point loss. As for the Bears, it is tough to come back after an extremely deflating defeat to the division rival Packers. Chicago blew a huge lead at Lambeau Field last Sunday night and now feels the pressure of another primetime game on Monday night. While Bears head coach Matt Nagy is in his first year with Chicago, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is a long-time veteran. When Seattle is on the road against an NFC foe following a game against an AFC foe in the prior week, they are on an 8-1 ATS run. I also like backing the Seahawks off of a loss. Seattle is 11-2 ATS when they are off of a SU loss outside of their division and are facing a team that has a losing record. The Bears are 0-16 ATS when they are a home favorite against an NFC foe that is off of a SU loss. The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 5 road games (one push) against NFC opponents. That means this play is supported, in addition to a number of solid angles, by a pair of angles that are a combined 20-0 / 100% perfect. 8* SEATTLE |
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09-17-18 | Reds v. Brewers -1.5 | 0-8 | Win | 124 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #958 Monday 8* Milwaukee Brewers Run Line -1.5 runs +120 vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:40 ET - Wade Miley has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 12 of his 13 Brewers starts. The Milwaukee southpaw also has dominated the Reds as he has allowed just 1 earned run in each of his last 3 starts versus Cincinnati and two of those were this season. As for the Reds Anthony DeSclafani, he has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of this last 3 starts versus the Brewers and 2 of those were this season. Also, the Cincinnati right-hander enter this start having allowed 10 runs (9 earned) in his last two starts and those have spanned less than 9 innings of work! The Brewers are off of a tight loss yesterday but still are 19-7 this season in games where they are a home favorite in a money line range of -125 to -175. That said, I like the added value offered here with the run line. By laying the 1.5 runs with Milwaukee, we get a +120 comeback price on the home favorite. Keep in mind, prior to their upset win yesterday at Wrigley Field, Cincinnati was 5-20 in their previous 25 road games. That is a horrible two month run and I expect it to resume here and this home win for the Brewers should come in blowout fashion. 8* MILWAUKEE |
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09-16-18 | Raiders +6.5 v. Broncos | 19-20 | Win | 102 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #285 Sunday 8* Oakland Raiders (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos hung on to beat the Seahawks by 3 points last week despite 3 interceptions thrown by Case Keenum. This created a perfect set up this week because there is a false confidence in the Broncos because of the win and some impressive yardage totals for Denver last week. So most of the marketplace is pro-Denver right now and anti-Oakland because, of course, everyone saw the Raiders collapse against the Rams in the 2nd half of that game. However, note that the yardage in that game was roughly equal and note that Derek Carr threw 3 interceptions. However, I still would pick Carr over Keenum to quarterback my team any day of the week. I also prefer a veteran coach like the Raiders Jon Gruden over the Broncos Vance Joseph. So, in this match-up, I have the better QB and the more experienced coach and I am getting nearly a full touchdown even though my team is undoubtedly the hungrier team. I'll take it! The Raiders are ticked off after what happened on Monday night while Denver is feeling a little too good about themselves after beating Seattle in week one. The Broncos are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 divisional games. Also, Denver is a long-term 2-10 ATS when they are at home in a divisional game and favored by less than 17 points and their opponent is off a SU loss. Again, hunger and motivation so important and I expect a lot of fight from the Raiders after what happened Monday and they should be in this one all the way and have a great shot at the upset. 8* OAKLAND |
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09-16-18 | Patriots v. Jaguars +3 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #283 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Don't underestimate that Jags win over the Giants last week in New York. The Giants have some solid talent at the skill positions with Odell Beckham, Jr back in the mix and now Saquan Barkley running very well already in his rookie campaign for New York. That said, the Patriots were somewhat fortunate to sneak past the Texans last week and that was at home. Now they play in very high heat and high humidity in Jacksonville Sunday and they face a team that should have beat them in the AFC Conference Championship Game last year and that one was in Foxboro! In other words, I like my chances with the Jaguars as they won't blow a big lead against the Pats in Jacksonville in September like they did in New England in January. The Jags outgained the Patriots in that big playoff game and also dominated time of possession but they were done in by penalties. They are going to make the most of this opportunity for revenge. Of course the Patriots have been a covering machine in recent years and that is priced into this line. In other words, the wrong team is favored here but that is to satisfy the masses and, as long-time followers of my program know, I like to fade the masses. Keep in mind, since this line has Jax as a dog we can talk about their SU streaks as they do apply here and Jacksonville has won 6 in a row SU at home. As strong as the Pats have been overall ATS they have covered just 2 of their last 5 away from home and I like the Jags in the stifling oppressive heat of Florida in this one. 10* JACKSONVILLE |
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09-16-18 | Panthers +6 v. Falcons | 24-31 | Loss | -103 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #263 Sunday 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Atlanta Falcons @ 1 ET - First off let me start by saying that I am well aware that Carolina has some injury issues head into this game. However, the key factor is the Panthers have some solid depth at those positions (in particular, the offensive line) and I really like the big dog value being offered here. That was not a bad Cowboys that the Panthers thoroughly dominated in Week 1. At the same time the Falcons faced an Eagles team whose offense was totally out of rhythm and had questionable play-calling and never really could get in sync and yet Atlanta still lost. This is why I am going contrarian this week because most are expecting the Panthers to fall short after a big win over Dallas while the Falcons bounce back after a tough loss to the Eagles. It is the old "zig zag" theory. This is helping to give us a lot of line value here because Carolina's defense looked great last week while the Falcons traditional red zone struggles on offense continued. As a result, getting close to a TD here is a big value because there is no way the Panthers will be flat here. They are up for this game as they've had a history of struggles against Atlanta in recent meetings and it is payback time. The Panthers are a very cohesive group right now where everybody is pulling even closer together because of some of the injuries they've had. I really like what I am reading out of Carolina and, in terms of technical edges, the Panthers are a long-term 24-12 ATS in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points while also having gone 9-4 ATS as an underdog the past two seasons combined. 8* CAROLINA |
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09-15-18 | Arizona State v. San Diego State +6 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #210 Saturday 10* Top Play San Diego State Aztecs (+) vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 10:30 ET - The Sun Devils rallied for a home win against Michigan State last week. As a result, Arizona State was able to sneak by a ranked Spartans team even thought they allowed nearly 400 yards in that game. Now the Sun Devils are on the road for the first time this season and facing arguably their toughest challenge yet (first away game and hosted weak UTSA team in Week 1) and yet ASU is favored by nearly a full TD here. The markets are not grading this team properly. Head coach Herm Edwards was considered by many to be the most questionable (and possibly worst) off-season hire and now after just two games they're laying nearly a full TD on the road. I just don't see it and yes I am aware of the Aztecs QB being out for this game. Keep in mind San Diego State is a run dominated team. Also, a big key to this play is that Edwards plucked away their defensive coordinator from the Aztecs. Do you think long-time veteran head coach Rocky Long wants this game? This match-up certainly has special importance to him. He has been coaching in some capacity ever since his playing career ended in the mid-70s and he is known as a defensive specialist. He does not want to get out-witted by his pupil (the ASU DC) on the opposite sidelines. This will be Long's 230th games as an NCAA head coach while Aztecs coach Edwards does have NFL coaching experience but will be coaching his first ever road game in college action. I love the home dog here as the running game of the Aztecs and a huge edge with coach Long on our side of this play proving to be keys to victory. It also certainly is important to mention the scheduling situation here heavily favors San Diego State. While the Aztecs are at home and off of an easy win over an FCS team and with a MAC team on deck, the Sun Devils are off of a grueling upset win over a ranked Big Ten team plus they have their PAC-12 opener on deck. I'll gladly grab all the points I can get here. 10* SAN DIEGO STATE |
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09-14-18 | BC v. Montreal +3.5 | 32-14 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 39 m | Show | |
Friday Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL Game #660 Friday 8* Montreal Alouettes (+) vs BC Lions @ 7:30 ET - BC has certainly had the upper hand in this series with 5 straight wins in this series and a 5-0 ATS run. However, the Lions have yet to prove they can win on the road this season. They've gone 0-5 away from home and they now take on a revenge-minded Montreal team that is coming off of a bye week. The Alouettes have a definite rest edge as well as home field edge. I also like the fact that the Als are off of back to back SU wins and they are on a 4-0 ATS run. While Montreal is settled at the QB spot finally with Antonio Pipkin playing well, the Lions have a concern with Travis Lulay currently dealing with concussion issues. The home team is 9-1 this season in BC games and I look for that trend to continue. I will, however, gladly grab the points with the Alouettes as some added insurance here. 8* MONTREAL |
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09-14-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -1.5 | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #916 Friday 7* New York Yankees Run Line -1.5 runs -140 vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees are nearly 3 to 1 favorites on the money line and while I would never advise laying that much juice I do like the value here with New York on the run line. Look for the Yankees to dominate in this one and get a big win by a margin of 2 runs or more and our price range here is about -140 on the run line. So I am reducing my rating on this one from a "normal" 8* to a 7* but have no hesitation in laying this price range considering the situation. The Blue Jays Marco Estrada is winless with a 9.49 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, he has given up 5 homers in his 3 starts versus the Yankees this season. As for Masahiro Tanaka, he has allowed just 1 earned run on only 6 hits in the 13 innings spanning his last two starts versus Toronto. The Yankees right-hander enters this start having allowed only 1 earned run in 15 innings (with 16 strikeouts) in his last two starts. This is a pitching mismatch and the Yankees (losers of 2 straight) have had a losing streak of 3 or more games only ONCE since late JUNE! In other words, a bounce back for the Yankees is quite likely tonight. The Blue Jays have lost 3 straight games and also are 13-25 in their last 38 games against teams with a winning record while the Yankees are 14-5 when playing after a day off. 7* New York Yankees Run Line -1.5 runs -140 |
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09-13-18 | Ravens +1 v. Bengals | 23-34 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Thursday 8* Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:20 ET - The very first number that popped on this one was the Ravens -3 and now Baltimore is in a pick'em range and even a small dog in some books as of Wednesday evening. This is offering great line value to the revenge-minded Ravens. Baltimore, as many may recall, missed out on the post-season last year because of an unbelievable late-game loss to the Bengals in the final week of the regular season last year. Of course revenge tends to be over-played so I am always careful when getting involved in situations with avenging teams. In this case it absolutely looks like the right play. The Ravens have seemed like a team on a mission ever since pre-season kicked off. They went 5-0 in the preseason and then began the regular season with a thumping of Buffalo. Certainly the Bills are expected to be a bad team this season but that games wasn't even close and Baltimore was dominant on both sides of the ball. On the other side of the equation, the Bengals faced a Colts team with a suspect offensive line and a rusty Andrew Luck under center and yet still needed a late rally for the win. Don't be impressed by the final score as Cincinnati scored the final 17 points and the fact is the yardage was roughly equal in that game. Look for the Ravens to improve on a 7-3 ATS run in road openers. The Bengals, in divisional games, are 0-7 ATS if they are facing an opponent whom is playing with revenge and whom scored more than 35 points in their prior game. This perfect system fits perfectly here and Baltimore is ready to roll! The road team was the SU and ATS winner in both match-ups last season and that trend continues here. 8* BALTIMORE |
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09-13-18 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach MLB Game #955 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 runs (-) @ St Louis Cardinals @ 7:15 ET - This one has the makings of a road rout. The Cardinals haven't faced Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw in awhile and the lack of repetition certainly won't help them. The LA southpaw has dominated the Cards to the tune of allowing just 1 earned run on only 4 hits in 17 innings spanning his last two starts against them. Kershaw has struck out 30 in 23 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus St Louis. He also enters this start in superb form as the lefty hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in a start in nearly two months. The Cards are also going with a southpaw here. Austin Gomber, whom beat the Dodgers on August 20th in Los Angeles, gets the call here. I realize that he has a low ERA and some impressive numbers on the season. However, Gomber allowed 10 hits in 7 innings in his most recent home start and that was the only time he has had to make a 2nd start against a team this season. The point is that he got hit harder the 2nd time around and now the Dodgers are getting a second look at Gomber. LA has gone 9-3 in Kershaw's last 12 starts and 9 of their last 11 wins with Kershaw on the mound have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Cardinals have lost 3 of their last 5 home games and also each of their two games this month versus left-handed starters. Kershaw dominates and Gomber struggles. 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 runs |
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09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest +5 | 41-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass #1 Side - Rickenbach CFB Game #104 Thursday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) vs Boston College Eagles @ 5:30 ET - The road team has dominated this series of late with four straight wins. Also, Boston College is seeking revenge for last year's home loss where they got drilled 34-10 despite the yardage being roughly equal. The Eagles were done in by 4 turnovers in that game. The over-play of the revenge angle in sports is leading to nice value for us here in fading the betting markets. There has been a big push toward Boston College in this one as their line has risen higher early this week. I am happy to fade this because at least the Demon Deacons have faced one semi-tough test this season. Wake Forest was favored by a little shy of a TD in their win at Tulane in Week 1. As for the Eagles, both their games have been at home and they were huge favorites in both games because of the weak competition they faced. As a result, Wake Forest is the more battle tested team early this season as they had to battle hard for their win over the Green Wave two weeks ago. As for the Eagles, both their games were easy blowout wins. Keep in mind, when BC won at WF last season it was by just 3 points and in their previous visit two years prior it was by just 6 points. I expect Wake Forest to be in this game all the way and to have a great shot at the outright upset. The Demon Deacons are on an 11-2 ATS run as an underdog. Look for Boston College to drop to 7-13 ATS long-term as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Yes I am well aware that Wake Forest QB Kendall Hinton is still out for Wake Forest. However, Demon Deacons QB Sam Hartman has done a respectable job for them and now has two games under is belt as the replacement for the suspended Hinton. 8* Wake Forest |
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09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers -7 | 23-24 | Loss | -104 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #478 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - The Bears have a new head coach in Matt Nagy while the Packers Mike McCarthy is in his 13th year with the Packers. Chicago is still resting their hopes on a QB by the name of Mitch Trubisky while Green Bay has a healthy Aaron Rodgers returning as the signal-caller for The Pack in this one. So far I have listed for you a coaching edge and a huge edge at arguably the most important position. Now add in the fact that the Packers have one of the biggest home field edges in the NFL and the fact that this line is down to a 7 and you can see why I am happy to back Green Bay in this one. Keep in mind Chicago has a combined record of 8-24 the past two seasons. In terms of ATS stats the Bears have gotten the cash just twice in their last nine games. Also, for those of you whom like technical trends: Chicago is 0-5 ATS when they have a Monday night game on deck. Last year the Packers season was impacted greatly by injury but do not forget that this team, including playoffs, averaged 12 wins per game the 3 prior seasons. Green Bay knows how to win and with Rodgers back under center this game is a complete mismatch and with the line at -7 it is "go time" for this one. The Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against the Bears! As a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points, GB is on a 7-2 ATS run. The Bears are on a 4-12 ATS run in road games the past two seasons and I am happy to take advantage of the downward line move here. 8* GREEN BAY PACKERS |
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09-09-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Broncos | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos, based on the markets, appear to be a popular choice this week. This is understandable from the anti-Seahawks sentiment as certainly Seattle has lost some key components from the team that took the field last season. However, I have to wonder if people heavily betting Denver stop and think about this interesting factoid: the Broncos win totals keep decreasing! They won 12 games 3 years ago, 9 games two years ago, and only were victories 5 times in 16 games last season! Is this a team you want to lay points with against a Seahawks team that still has plenty of professional pride and has been a top team for many years now. Also, do you want Case Keenum at QB or Russell Wilson? Of course most everyone would take the Hawks signal-caller give the choice! The point is just the simple fact that a little too much respect has gone the way of the Broncos in my strong opinion. We can now get a full field goal with the team, that in my opinion, is still the better team. Sure there is the important factor of home field but the Broncos have covered just once the last five times they've been a home favorite of 3 points or less. Overall, Denver's home field has been nothing special the last two seasons as they've barely played above .500 in the Mile High City. The Seahawks are 6-2 SU against AFC teams the past two seasons. The Broncos are on an overall 2-10 ATS run. You still have to score points to win games and so, while I respect the Denver defense, I think their offense is still going to have growing pains with Keenum at the helm. Seattle averaged scoring 5 points per game more than the Broncos last season plus the Seahawks D - even after personnel changes - is still a solid unit. The Hawks are also on a 4-0 ATS run when playing the first of back to back road games. Also, head coach Pete Carroll is in his 9th year with the Seahawks while Vance Joseph is in his just his 2nd with the Broncos. That difference in experience is worth something too. 10* SEATTLE |
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09-09-18 | 49ers +7 v. Vikings | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #455 Sunday 8* San Francisco 49ers (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The 49ers were a different team late last season with Garoppolo under center and I expect the San Francisco QB to stay hot early this season. Keep in mind, the Viking are going through a lot of transition on offense in terms of the QB position as well as their offensive cooridinator. That said, the upstart Niners could surprise the Vikes here. Sure, Minnesota has been excited too re-take the field after that embarrassing post-season loss to the Eagles. However, the 49ers have been just as eager to get back on the field after their strong start finish to last season. This San Francisco team is an up and coming unit with a great mixture of talent and experience on both sides of the ball. With this line climbing up to as high as a +7 as of Saturday evening it is go time with this dangerous underdog. Both these teams have been covering machines of late as the Niners covered 5 straight to end last season while the Vikings finished up the regular season covering 10 of their last 11. However, the key to the value here is the transition taking place with the Minny offense as well as the fact that they are the public team so that is why the money flow has gone their way and the line has moved accordingly. I am grabbing the value on the underdog side with this one and look for the 49ers to improve to 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road openers. 8* SAN FRANCISCO |
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09-08-18 | Saskatchewan +4.5 v. Winnipeg | 32-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL Game #655 Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - These teams were in a fierce battle last week in Saskatchewan and the Riders prevailed. As a result now the masses will jump to back to Winnipeg this week in an opportunity for revenge. Guys, it is never that simple. Doesn't mean that "system" won't work this week but the fact it is that the "revenge angle" tends to be over-used in in all sports when it comes to sports wagering. The CFL is no different. The Roughriders are a hot team right now and they certainly won the special teams battle last week versus the Bombers and, keep in mind, special teams should not be overlooked when you're doing your handicapping. Saskatchewan has covered 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and the Riders certainly had the more impressive aerial attack last week. Yes, Winnipeg ran the ball well last week but it is still the aerial attack that wins more games in the 3-down league known as CFL! The Riders are the hotter team right now and they are 6-1 SU and ATS the last 7 times they've been off of a win over a division rival. Winnipeg still has not defeated a team with a winning record this season as they are 0-3 SU and ATS in games when they've met a winning team this season. The fact that we're getting a handful of points here is simply an added bonus and I will take it as we fade market perception (revenge) of those bettors whom are following CFL. Give me the road dog here as they have a non-divisional game on deck and so they'll certainly leave it all on the field Saturday afternoon. 8* SASKATCHEWAN |
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09-08-18 | Georgia -10 v. South Carolina | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #347 Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) @ South Carolina Gamecocks @ 3:30 ET - This is the year for the Gamecocks. That is what most everyone is saying at least. I know my choice here will be an unpopular one because just about everywhere you look in terms of thoughts on this match-up you're going to read about the value on South Carolina. Ladies and gentlemen, the odds makers don't make many mistakes. That is a fact. While most of the sports betting world scratches their heads and wonders how the Bulldogs can be a double digit favorite on the road in this match-up I am here to tell you that the likelihood is going to be domination in the trenches. I know the Gamecocks are improved and I know the Bulldogs lost some key players from last year's team. But Georgia simply "reloads" and they have a huge talent pool where their best players are coming from. The fact is that they've outgained South Carolina by a combined total of 578 to 73 in rushing yardage in the past two meetings between these teams. That is absolute domination in the trenches but we're getting line value here because they won each of those two games by only 14 points each despite dominating the ground game. I expect Saturday's win to again feature domination and this time it translates even better to the scoreboard with the win to come by 21 points. The Bulldogs have had this game circled because they know that this is one of their toughest games of the season up until they travel to LSU in mid-October. The point is that one of the top teams in the nation here, Georgia, is absolutely going to be ready and up to the South Carolina challenge. The Bulldogs are 6-1 SU (and 5-2 ATS) in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Also, in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points, the Bulldogs are an incredible long-term 21-6 SU and ATS! South Carolina, as a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points is 1-6-1 SU and 2-6 ATS! Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart and Gamecocks coach Will Muschamp are each in their third years with their respective teams. The vast improvement that Georgia showed from year one to year two tells me that, despite the experience returning on offense for the Gamecocks (both teams lost a lot on defense), the systems and the buy-ins from the players into those systems are having much more success for the Bulldogs than the Gamecocks and we'll see that again on Saturday in my opinion. Lay the big points on the road. 10* GEORGIA BULLDOGS |
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09-07-18 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #968 Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Run Line -1.5 runs vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - The Rays are 41-24 at home this season. The Orioles are 17-55 on the road this year. Of course I am not going to lay the huge odds (over 2 to 1) with the Rays on the money line here. However, I do see fantastic line value in laying a very small price with Tampa Bay and expecting them to win this game by 2 or more runs. Hence the value here with the run line as Blake Snell gets the rematch against Dylan Bundy that he wanted. Keep in mind that Snell has pitched infinitely better than Bundy all season long but when they matched up in Baltimore back in May. In that start Bundy had a rare gem while Snell had a rare sub-par performance. Payback is on order today and Snell is 8-1 with a 1.06 ERA in his home starts this season. As for Bundy, the Orioles are 3-9 in his road starts and he enters this start with an 8.79 ERA in his last 3 starts. Laying the 1.5 runs here is certainly supportable by the fact that 15 of the Rays last 17 wins have come by 2 or more runs and 11 of Baltimore's last 13 losses have come by a margin of defeat of two or more runs. Expecting more of the same here on Friday. 10* TAMPA BAY Run Line -1.5 runs |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State -7 | 24-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #220 Monday 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 8 ET - Both teams have inexperienced defenses. That said, I like the advantage that FSU has by being at home for this one. Florida State is going to be loaded with energy with the new coaching regime and also feeding off the energy of the how crowd. The Seminoles, though a bit inexperienced on defense, are still loaded with athleticism on that side of the ball and are going to give the Hokies offense trouble. Keep in mind, Virginia Tech really struggled to establish the run last season. When teams can't do that, it bogs down the offense. I also like the fact that the Noles are returning a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball plus they get back QB Deondre Francois whom got hurt right away in Week 1 last year. Simply put there is a "buzz" around this FSU program right now and with the home field, the energy and enthusiasm that followed the coaching changes, and the fact that Florida State fell far short of expectations last year, we are going to see a massive effort from the Seminoles in this one. There is a reason this line is holding around a touchdown even though these teams are right next to each other in the rankings right now! In terms of technical trends, the Hokies went 0-3 as a dog last season, and also are a long-term 1-8 ATS in road games with a posted total in the 52.5 to 56 range. The Seminoles are 8-2 SU the last 10 times they've been a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points and so, of course, a SU win is expected here. The reason this one also translates to a cover is simply a big difference between the status of these two offensive units right now. FSU is loaded on that side of the ball much moreso than the Hokies and the Noles also certainly have some new "wrinkles" under the sleeve of head coach Willie Taggart and they're going to surprise Virginia Tech early and often in this one. 8* FLORIDA STATE |
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09-03-18 | Toronto +9 v. Hamilton | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #647 Monday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts (+) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 6:30 ET - Toronto lost at Montreal last week. As a result, they have no chance at Hamilton this week. Of course I jest but you get my point! We've seen a major market move toward the Tiger-Cats here and, simply put, there has been an over-reaction to last week's results. Keep in mind, the Alouettes team that beat the Argonauts last week certainly has been playing much better in recent weeks. Also, does Hamilton really merit being this large of a favorite in this divisional match-up? Keep in mind, the Ti-Cats not only are on a 1-4-1 ATS run, they're only 2-4 SU in their last 6 games. From my point of view, Hamilton will be doing good just to win this game let alone cover a spread that has now crept up to 9 as of game day morning. This is why I waited to release this pick until game day because I felt we'd get extra value based on market perception. Sure enough, ladies and gentlemen, here it is! Grab the big points with Toronto! The Argos have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams and the lone loss came by just two points. Hamilton is only 1-3 ATS in home games this season. Also, the Argonauts are on a 5-2 SU and ATS run when off of a loss to a division rival. Look for the Argos McLeod Bethel-Thompson to trade blows with Tiger-Cats QB Jeramiah Masoli throughout this game and I just don't see Hamilton as being able to pull away from a fired up Argonauts team ready to fight hard after last week's unexpected loss. This is the Argos chance to pull even with Hamilton in the standings! 10* TORONTO |
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09-02-18 | Angels +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #927 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angeles Run Line +1.5 runs @ Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - Even though Shohei Ohtani will be on a limited pitch count here the Angels bullpen (yesterday's results notwithstanding) is quite solid. They also do have fresh arms in the pen as they only went 1 inning yesterday and, in the prior two games in this series, the starters went 6 innings in each game. So the Angels should be solid with Ohtani backed by a rather rested bullpen. The Angels are 7-2 in Ohtani's starts this season and while certainly the big dog comeback price is enticing here, I like the added "insurance" of having the +1.5 runs in this one. Prior to yesterday's ugly late-game loss the Angels, at +1.5 runs, were 15-8 their 23 previous games. As for the Astros, at -1.5 runs, they had gone 11-21 their 32 prior games. Gerrit Cole gets the start for Houston here and the Astros are only 5-6 in his last 11 starts but yet Houston is priced at nearly 2 to 1 on the money line in this game. I feel we're getting excellent line value here as Cole gave up 4 earned runs in his most recent start plus, prior to that, he had allowed 24 hits in 23 and 1/3 innings spanning his 4 prior starts. The Astros have been fantastic on the road this season but are barely above .500 at home on the year. Great line value here. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS Run Line +1.5 runs |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL v. LSU +3.5 | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #218 Sunday 8* LSU Tigers (+) vs Miami Hurricanes @ 7:30 ET @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX - When you're good people want you to fail. Where I am going with this is a play on LSU. Part of the reason is there is an early season move by the betting markets that is anti-SEC. I heard it here at the sports books in Vegas yesterday too. Many people rooting against the SEC. The fact is that the SEC, for the most part, rolled in their games yesterday and I am not talking about the games that were expected to be mismatches. Vanderbilt won their game by 28, Ole Miss won by 20, and Auburn hung on to beat higher-ranked Washington. The lines on all 3 of those game were tight and yet there were two blowouts plus the Tigers proved themselves against the doubters as there were a lot of Huskies backers for sure in that one. The point being that now we get a very solid football program, LSU at +3.5 in a "neutral" site game where the location certainly favors them. Of course I am well aware that Miami returns more starters than LSU but that is not some magic system that works for all early season games. You can't just take the team with more returning starters. The fact is that Hurricanes QB Malik Rosier struggled in closing out last season and I like what QB Joe Burrow brings to the table for the Tigers. The Ohio State transfer (and the Buckeyes know a thing or two about recruiting!) is a perfect fit for what LSU is wanting to do on offense this season (remember that OC Matt Canada clashed with head coach Ed Orgeron last season). That is why Canada is now with Maryland and Orgeron has a new system in place for 2018 on offense. That said, lets not forget that LSU is annually a very tough defense too. Those who like technical trends will be glad to know that the Tigers are 7-3 ATS (and 9-1 SU!) in neutral site games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. Miami, with those same parameters, is an ugly 1-4 ATS and SU! Getting the Tigers as a dog of more than a field goal here is truly offering superb line value. 8* LSU |
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09-01-18 | Washington v. Auburn -2 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #194 Saturday 8* Auburn Tigers (-) vs Washington Huskies @ 3:30 ET @ Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA - This is a contrarian play because the Huskies are ranked higher in the polls, have QB Jake Browning at the controls, and are getting points in this match-up. Don't be be fooled ladies and gentlemen. When a lower ranked team is favored over a higher ranked team it is usually with good reason. This one will prove to be no different. For one thing, though this is a "neutral" site game, the location strongly favors Auburn. I am not just saying that because the game is being played in the southeastern part of the country. I am also saying it because this will be the 3rd straight time that the Tigers are playing in this stadium. Keep in mind they played the SEC Title game here then the Peach Bowl here and now they open up their 2018 season here. This is a big edge for Auburn in this match-up as there is a lot of familiarity for the Tigers while this is certainly a challenging road trip for Washington. The Huskies are 0-2 SU and ATS the past two seasons when they've been an underdog. Also, they are 0-3 SU in their last 3 meetings with SEC foes. Now I know this is not a "true" home game for the Tigers the location still heavily favors them and that is why I will mention the fact that Auburn is 33-1 SU in non-conference home games the past dozen years. Washington has rarely been tested with a non-conference road game that is as tough as this one will be and I do not expect this to go well at all. 8* AUBURN |
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09-01-18 | Washington State v. Wyoming | Top | 41-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #205 Saturday 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars (-) @ Wyoming Cowboys @ 3:30 ET - Everyone seems to love Wyoming here. They are the more experience team, they have a game under their belt, and they won big at New Mexico State last week. However, that same Aggies team then went to Minnesota last night and got absolutely blasted by a Golden Gophers team that normally doesn't score a lot of points. That blowout loss put bullet holes into a couple of those aforementioned theories. One is about having a game under your belt (NM St had that edge over Minny) and the other is that the Cowboys win over the Aggies even matters! Here are the facts that do matter. Experienced or not Wyoming is still a Mountain West team and think about it ladies and gentlemen, how many kids grow up thinking I want to play football at Wyoming? This is not some football powerhouse. Now they're hosting a Pac-12 team that early this summer was laying a TD against them. Now Washington State is down into the pick'em price range and is available at a pick'em price on the money line in a number of books as of mid-day Friday. I am happy to back the Cougars here at a fantastic discount as the markets have done what they usually do - they overreact to one game! Keep in mind Washington State has a couple of easier non-conference home games on deck. In other words, the Cougars have been fully focused on this road challenge all summer long as they know this will be their toughest game before Pac-12 action gets underway for them. They'll be ready...and so am I! 10* WASHINGTON STATE |
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09-01-18 | Ole Miss +3 v. Texas Tech | 47-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 35 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #197 Saturday 8* Ole Miss Rebels (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Noon ET @ NRG Stadium in Houston, TX - Both of these teams last season were defined by their offense and had struggles on defense. I watched the Red Raiders struggle time and time again to convert chances in opponents red zones though. I also know that Texas Tech is very inexperienced on offense this season while Ole Miss is absolutely loaded. That said, even though the Red Raiders are returning more starters on defense than the Rebels are, I love Mississippi in this spot. They are not getting near the respect they should in a game that is on a neutral field and, of course, I also love having the SEC over the Big 12 in this match-up. I just feel that Ole Miss is going to be so far head of Texas Tech in terms of offensive production in this one that the Red Raiders won't be able to keep up. With this line moving all the way up to a +3 now the value is even greater with the underdog as of mid-day Friday and I am pulling the trigger right now and grabbing the great value. 8* OLE MISS |
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08-31-18 | Syracuse v. Western Michigan +6 | Top | 55-42 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #144 Friday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (+) vs Syracuse Orange @ 6 ET - I know this is a MAC team that Syracuse is facing but the Orange sure are getting an awful lot of respect from the betting markets when you consider that they are 2-8 SU in road game the past two seasons. Simply put, Syracuse is not known for traveling well and they're taking on a Western Michigan team that is 10-2 SU in home games the past two seasons. I am well aware of the fact that the Broncos have a game at Michigan on deck next week but they are not looking ahead to that. This is their home opener and this is an important game to win and they know of course that a win next week against the Wolverines would be nothing short of a miracle. In other words the Broncos are most certainly focused on the task at hand here. I also like the fact that Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester was the offensive coordinator with Syracuse as recent as just a few years ago. He has some insight into the Orange (including their players) that others don't have. Also, Lester is going to be resuming play-calling duties again this season which I feel will bring out the best in this Western Michigan offense. The Broncos are anxious to get back on the field after an ugly season-ending loss at Toledo last year. Prior to that defeat Western Michigan had won 6 of their 9 prior games and none of the 3 losses came by more than 7 points. The average margin of defeat for the Broncos was just 4 points in those 3 losses. Syracuse lost a ton of talent from last season's wide receiver corps and in their linebacker unit. Keep in mind the Broncos, by the end of the year, had lost 21 players to season-ending injuries last year. That has created a roster this season that is much deeper and much more experienced (others forced into action last year) than first meets the eye and, of course they are healthier right now too. Add it all up and you have great "hidden value" with the home dog here! 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest -6 v. Tulane | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 49 h 44 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #139 Thursday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-) @ Tulane Green Wave @ 8 ET - The very first number that popped up for Wake Forest in this game was a 13 and now it is as a low as a 5.5 as of Tuesday evening. Of course I am aware of the fact that Demon Deacons QB Kendall Hinton is suspended. The fact is that Wake Forest has a pair of solid options behind him. Also, these guys are going to be functioning behind a very strong offensive line that is a cohesive group in terms of returning starters from last year. On the other side of the ball WF will have to deal with facing the option of Tulane. However, that is also an added edge here being the first game of the season as Wake Forest has plenty of time through August to get prepared for it. That has been a big focus for the Demon Deacons heading into this game. Keep in mind Wake Forest returns a ton of talent on the offensive line and they're going up against a Green Wave defensive line that lost all but one starter from last year's team. I am looking for Tulane to drop to 5-10 ATS in their last 15 as a home dog while the Demon Deacons improve to 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The mismatch in the trenches coupled with the big downward line move on this one past the key number of 7 made it a definite play for me for Thursday. 8* WAKE FOREST |
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08-30-18 | Redskins +7 v. Ravens | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFLX Game #111 Thursday 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 7:30 ET - With the Ravens RG III having a shot to go against his former Redskins teammates and with Baltimore having a chance at an undefeated preseason of course they are going to go all out here and play most all of the starters for most all of the game in an attempt to blow away Washington. Of course I am being facetious here but this is truly an absolutely insane line move that has taken place here. This is week 4 of the preseason. No one cares about this week. Yes there are a few final roster battles going on but, at the end of the day, this is a very unimportant game. That said, where is the drive and the motivation for the Ravens to win this game by a full TD or more? It truly is not there. Of course RG III will want to play well here but what about the supporting cast. Also, how much motivation is it really when it is still preseason? Also, you don't think the Redskins want to contain Griffin too no matter whom is on the field? This line, going from -1.5 all the way up to as high as a -7 as of Tuesday, is simply out of whack. In fact, there is another key element here that also is to the advantage of the undervalued underdog. That factor is that the Ravens, by virtue of having played in the NFL Hall of Fame Game, will be playing their 5th game of the preseason. The last 8 teams in that situation have 0 ATS wins to show for it. One was a push (line was 3), one had their final game cancelled (Dallas/Houston last year) and the other 6 all failed to cover! You can see why I feel there is great value in the big points (biggest offering on the board) being offered in an otherwise meaningless Thursday preseason finale. Yes I understand about preseason QB rotations too and how these guys have played thusfar in the preseason but also keep in mind the Redskins did outscore the Broncos in the 2nd half last week. That said it is those same reserves that will play a critical role this week as well. 10* WASHINGTON |
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08-26-18 | Cardinals -2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFLX Game #281 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8 ET - There is a common practice in preseason wagering of backing winless teams and fading undefeated teams. However, most of this week's action is already in the books and note that Baltimore (4-0) won again this week, Miami (0-3) lost again this week, Tennessee (0-3) lost again this week, Philadelphia (0-3) lost again this week, Carolina (3-0) won again this week, Atlanta (0-3) lost again this week, Seattle (0-3) lost again this week. As you can see, not only is the undefeated/winless system worthy of being questioned, there is also merit to the fact that playing on the streaks is the better way to go. Of course the reality is that what matters the most in preseason is the coaches approach to the game and how much they care about winning. That is what ends up being a factor at the betting window too. While the Cardinals Steve Wilks is already 2-0 SU and ATS in his preseason debut, the Cowboys Jason Garrett (even with a rare cover in this preseason) is still an ugly long-term 11-20 ATS in preseason games. Based on the coaching factor as well as what I am hearing/seeing in reports from EACH of these camps on how they're going to play this one, I am backing the small road favorite here. Look for the goose egg to stay on the board in the loss column for Arizona and the win column for Dallas. Remember guys, preseason is a different animal compared to betting the NFL regular season. It is with very good reason that there has been a big move toward the Cardinals here with this line! 10* ARIZONA |
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08-25-18 | Winnipeg v. Calgary -8.5 | Top | 26-39 | Win | 100 | 73 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #366 Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 3:30 ET - The Stampeders entered last week's action 7-0 on the season and then ran into a buzzsaw at Saskatchewan and got drilled by the Roughriders. Of course Calgary is seeking payback against anyone in their path this week and that means the Blue Bombers are absolutely in trouble here. Simply put, Winnipeg is in the wrong place at the wrong time. If the Stampeders were on the road again this week a bounce back would be tougher but, at home, I just don't see them being denied. Couple that with the fact that there is major difference in terms of these defenses and you have a blowout game likely here. While the Blue Bombers are allowing 24 points per game this season, the Stampeders were allowing just 12 points per game in their 7 game winning streak. One game doesn't change everything for Calgary. This is still the best team in the CFL and another key I like about their "edge" here is that the Stamps are 9-4 in divisional games since the start of last season while Winnipeg is just 1-2 in divisional games this season plus got knocked out of the post-season last year by another divisional foe, Edmonton. In other words the Blue Bombers are just 1-3 their last 4 divisional games while Calgary (including last year's post-season win over Edmonton) is 10-4 their last 14 divisional games. Big difference as the West is the tough division and the Stampeders continue to prove they are the best in the west! Situational edge, home field edge, and edge on defense all add up to a home rout here. 10* CALGARY |
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08-24-18 | Toronto -5.5 v. Montreal | 22-25 | Loss | -108 | 54 h 14 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Game #363 Friday 8* Toronto Argonauts (-) @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - Teams from the West are 15-6 against teams from the East this season. Why am I mentioning that in a game that features two East Division teams? It is simply because Toronto has faced a brutal early season schedule. The Argonauts have played only ONE divisional game this season. That means they've been batting tougher West Division teams for almost this entire season thusfar. Now, after possibly salvaging their season with a late rally for a win over BC last week, the Argos will take advantage of finally facing a divisional foe (and the worst one at that). Though this game is at Montreal, the Alouettes are 0-4 this season at home. Toronto has momentum from last week's win and also has rejuvenated confidence about making a move up the East Division standings thanks to last week's exciting win. That said, the Argonauts know they must take advantage of facing a weak Montreal team that is dealing with a plethora of uncertainty at the QB position. Look for the Argos to take advantage and crush the Als. The Alouettes hung on for the cover last week as a massive underdog on Saturday but they are still just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games when playing with 6 or less days of rest between contests. While Montreal is reeling the Argonauts appear ready to go on a bit of a surge! 8* TORONTO |
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08-23-18 | Eagles +3 v. Browns | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 55 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFLX Game #251 Thursday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Cleveland Browns @ 8 ET - Contrarian as per usual. The very first numbers that came out on this game actually had the Eagles favored by 2. The line not only moved to the Browns but even as a high as a 4 point favorite. Of course this is a 6-point swing and I love the value on the other side of moves like this. I wanted to wait and make sure the movement settled out before releasing my pick on this one. As of Wednesday mid-day it appears quite settled in the 3-point range and I am going with the Eagles plus the points here. Yes their first-team offense has failed to score a TD yet but you're going to see a different effort this week from the Eagles. This is a dress rehearsal week for NFL teams as the starters are seeing their most action of the preseason this week and likely won't touch the field next week. That said, we're getting the Super Bowl champion Eagles plus a field goal and we're fading a Browns team that is perennially the worst team in the NFL. That said, and with week 3 of the NFL preseason being the one that most closely resembles a regular season game, I like the value with winless Philadelphia plus the points. Yes the Browns went 4-0 last year in the preseason but they also went 0-4 EACH of the prior two years. Keep in mind, even though it is only preseason the Eagles did have to face the Steelers and Patriots in their first two preseason games. Those are two of the top teams in the NFL that certainly are much deeper and talented than the Browns are. The point is that even when the 2nd and 3rd stringers come into this game, the Eagles hold a big edge over the Browns. Doug Pederson entered this year with a 6-2 record in preseason games with Philly. They've already lost 2 games this preseason. In other words, don't look for them to lose another...at least not this week...of course next week is always a "proceed with extreme caution" week! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-22-18 | Reds v. Brewers -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #952 Wednesday 8* Milwaukee Brewers Run Line -1.5 runs (-) vs Cincinnati Reds @ 2:10 ET - The Brewers jumped on top of the Reds 4-0 in the first inning yesterday but they ended up on the wrong end of a 9-7 final. Look for Milwaukee to bounce back in a big way Wednesday as, unlike yesterday, the Brewers have a big pitching edge in this one. Robert Stephenson gets the call for the Reds and he has been dreadful in his two starts since moving into the rotation. He has compiled a 7.94 ERA in these two outings and that easily could be even worse as he has an unsightly 2.47 WHIP. Too many walks have been an issue for Stephenson as he has struggling to command his pitches. That spells trouble against a Brewers lineup that has crushed Reds pitching this season. Another key to a big Milwaukee win this afternoon is that starting pitcher Freddy Peralta has been much better than his 4.48 ERA would indicate. Opponents are hitting only .171 against him this season! He has been particularly tough at home where he is 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA and a minuscule 0.80 WHIP! Look for Peralta to come up huge on his home mound as Milwaukee bounces back from last night's defeat. Of course I don't lay big prices so no money line play here but the value on the run line (-1.5 runs at about a -115 price) is exceptional! 51 of the Reds 70 losses this season have come by 2 or more runs. 46 of the Brewers 70 wins this season have come by 2 or more runs. 8* MILWAUKEE Run Line -1.5 runs |
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08-20-18 | Ravens v. Colts +1 | Top | 20-19 | Push | 0 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX Game #432 Monday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8 ET - The Colts opened up as a 1.5 point favorite for this game but now are as much as a 1.5 point dog as of early game day morning. Of course the betting markets are jumping all over the Ravens here due to Baltimore's success in the preseason. Indeed Jim Harbaugh has a great record in preseason action but do you really think the odds makers aren't aware of this when they set these lines? The fact is that the betting markets are ignoring the fact that the Colts are very hungry right now with new head coach Frank Reich. They got the win at Seattle last week and, keep in mind, Indianapolis did score 5 times against the Seahawks. The reason for "only" 19 points was 4 field goals and just 1 touchdowns but there is no argument about the fact that the Colts played quite well last week. Now Indy makes their home debut under coach Reich and it is on Monday Night with ESPN cameras rolling. Of course it is still "just" preseason but I have no doubt that, given this situation, the Colts are going to "bring it" tonight. Conversely, the Ravens are off of a blowout win versus the Rams last week (33-7) and teams oftentimes fall short after big rout wins like that. Give me the more motivated team, the hungrier team, the home dog, in this one! 10* INDIANAPOLIS |
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08-20-18 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 125 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #960 Monday 8* Toronto Blue Jays Run Line -1.5 runs (+) vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - The Blue Jays are a pricey favorite in this match-up on the money line. However, by laying the 1.5 runs (utilizing the run line), we avoid laying juice and plus are offered a plus money return. Of course Toronto now must win the game by two or more runs for us to cash our ticket but, ladies and gentleman, this Orioles team is just plain awful. We saw that again yesterday when they lost 8-0 to the Indians. As loyal followers know, we had the over in that game but lost our play on over 8.5 despite an 8-0 score through 4 innings. Thanks for nothing Baltimore! But, the fact is, we should get our money back (and then some) by facing the Orioles here and getting a plus money return. This O's team is an unbelievably bad 16-47 in road games this season. 10 of the Orioles last 13 losses have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Blue Jays are happy to be back home and will be ready to bounce back after getting crushed by the Yankees in the Bronx yesterday. 11 of Toronto's last 16 wins have had a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Marco Estrada is 2-0 and has struck out 16 Orioles in 11 innings in his two most recent home starts versus the O's. Baltimore is 0-3 in Andrew Cashner's last 3 starts versus the Jays. In his last two starts at Toronto, Cashner has struck out just 6 batters while giving up 15 hits in less than 12 innings of work. He has been fortunate the damage wasn't worse in those two starts but tonight he is unlikely to be so fortunate. The Blue Jays are 9-1 versus the Orioles this season. More of the same here. 8* TORONTO Run Line -1.5 runs (+) |
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08-18-18 | BC v. Toronto +3 | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Game #374 Saturday 8* Toronto Argonauts (+) vs BC Lions @ 4 ET - The Lions are off of a big home win versus Edmonton and have another key divisional game, hosting Saskatchewan, on deck. As for the Argonauts, they are coming off of a much needed bye week and, on deck, they have a match-up with the "trash can fire" that is Montreal. In other words, Toronto is certainly in a much better scheduling situation in terms of the rest factor and the lookahead factor. Other keys to this play are the fact that this line has gone from a pick'em to BC now being favored by a full field goal. This has led to great line value here. Keep in mind, the Lions are an ugly 0-4 SU on the road this season! The Argonauts are 3-1 (both SU and ATS) when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest between games. 8* TORONTO |
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08-17-18 | Dolphins v. Panthers -3 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFLX Game #412 Friday 8* Carolina Panthers (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 7:30 ET - There is a common misconception that beating NFLX is just about fading a team that won the prior week or going against a team that lost the prior week. However, take a look at the results so far this preseason with that theory. The Bears lost the Hall of Fame Game and then also lost in Week 1. The Ravens won the Hall of Game and then also won in Week 1. Now, week 2 got underway last night and the Eagles lost again (just like in Week 1) to the Patriots (whom had also won in Week 1). The Packers and Steelers each had won in Week 1 so their match-up last night didn't fit the system. As for the Jets and Redskins, yes theirs fit the system with Jets off of a win and Redskins off of a loss and it did cash as Washington won. However, the Redskins won that game by the slimmest of margins on a game ending field goal. The point being that this system is already just 1-3 with the one win (Washington) certainly unimpressive while the losses with this system (Bears loss was tight) did include Ravens blasting their foe in Week 2 and the Patriots crushing the Eagles tonight. Now you can see why I am fading the public misconception (and the market move here) and going against the 0-1 Dolphins with the 1-0 Panthers in Week 2. This line opened up at a 4 in a number of the big shops earlier this week. Now it is down to a 3 as of game day morning and I am grabbing the extra value here. The odds makers had this at 4 earlier this week with plenty of good reason. The Dolphins have allowed 26 points or more in 3 of their last 4 preseason games dating back to last season. Overall, Miami has allowed an average of 24.5 points per game in their 4 preseason road games the past two seasons. Carolina has allowed 19 points or less in all 4 of their preseason home games the past two seasons. The Panthers have allowed an average of just 14.8 points per game in those 4 preseason home games. Given those numbers and knowing Carolina is the better and deeper team and has the home/road edge here and you can plainly see why I am backing the Panthers here and laying the small number. 8* CAROLINA |
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08-17-18 | Mets v. Phillies -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 140 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #902 Friday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs (+) vs New York Mets @ 6:05 ET - The money line on this match-up is currently as high as a -170 but by taking the Phillies on the run line we can lay the 1.5 runs and get a comeback payout as high as a +140 with this play as of the time of this posting. Of course the benefit is no big juice to lay plus an extra sweet payout. The drawback is that Philadelphia must win the game by 2 or more runs. However, how unlikely is that anyway if they do win? Certainly one has to like the chance of a Phillies win here with staff ace (and All-Star) Aaron Nola on the mound. That said, note that Philadelphia's last 15 wins have featured 0, that's right, ZERO wins by less than a 2-run margin. As for the Mets, 26 of their last 34 losses have come by 2 or more runs. Note that, although Noah Syndergaard is certainly a solid pitcher, the Mets are a long-term 80-116 in games against teams with a winning record. The Phillies are a perfect 4-0 in home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less this season. Also, the Phils are a fantastic 14-6 this season as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. Grab the value with the run line here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs (+) |
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08-16-18 | Steelers +5.5 v. Packers | 34-51 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NFLX Game #405 Thursday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8 ET - Everyone is lining up on Green Bay in this game as the line on the Packers has moved from a 2.5 all the way up to a 5.5 as of game day morning. Of course I am grabbing the value on the other side of the move here. Both teams had big wins last week and I feel that sets this one up to play out as a very close game. With the Steelers win last week at Philly, the road team is now 7-2 SU in Pittsburgh's last 9 preseason games. Also, one of the two losses for the traveling team came by just 4 points. In other words, if you took the road team and had +5.5 points in each of the Steelers last 9 preseason games, you would have an 8-1 (89%) ATS record! Hence the value here with the big points on the road and grabbing the Steelers. I am well aware of the fact that Green Bay has had a great preseason record in recent seasons and has performed well at home but there has been an over-reaction by the markets here and so many preseason games are decided by small margins. That is why you see the vast majority of lines set in the pick'em to 3 point range nearly every single game and every single week in the preseason. Now that we know the Packers have to beat us by 6 or more to lose this bet, I am stepping in as Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has a reputation, even in preseason, of being quite competitive. I just don't see this game being decided by more than 3 or 4 points. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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08-14-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #974 Tuesday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Run Line +1.5 runs vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:05 ET - The Diamondbacks struggles to hit on the road continue to give them trouble. Yesterday they faced 45 year old Bartolo Colon and finished the game with only 6 hits. The Diamondbacks .230 batting average on the road this season ties them with the Rockies for DEAD LAST in the National League. Tonight Arizona faces a pitcher who has been red hot of late. Yovani Gallardo is 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA in his last 4 starts while holding the opposition to a .213 batting average in those outings. He also is a superb 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA in his 15 starts against the Dbacks in his career. He'll be opposed by Arizona southpaw Patrick Corbin. While the lefty does have good numbers on the season, he is facing a Rangers team whose .446 slugging percentage in home games ranks them 5th out of all 30 MLB teams. Two more big homers led the way for Texas yesterday and they have averaged scoring 8.4 runs per game in going 6-2 in their last 8 home games. We're getting great market value here because the markets overemphasize pitching and that includes looking a lot at long-term numbers and they don't give enough weight to hitting. The summation, Gallardo has pitched just as well as Corbin of late and the Rangers hitting at home is much better than the Diamondbacks hitting on the road. In the last ten home games for Texas at +1.5 runs they have a record of 9-1, 90%! That's right...only one home loss by more than one run in their last ten home games! As for Arizona, at -1.5 runs in road games, they're 3-6 their last 9 games. The Rangers price at +1.5 runs is right around even money which is a true bargain as you can see per the above. I'll take it! 10* TEXAS +1.5 runs |
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08-10-18 | Hamilton +5.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 23-29 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Game #353 Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - Everyone has been piling on to the Blue Bombers here and I am going contrarian and grabbing the Tiger-Cats in this one. Hamilton is not only 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at Winnipeg, the Ti-Cats are also 5-1 SU in those last 6 visits! Overall, Hamilton has earned a well-deserved reputation as "road warriors" at the betting window as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall! Winnipeg opened up as a 4-point choice here but is now as high as a -5.5 early in the week but this is a Blue Bombers team that has lost 10 of its last 14 games against Hamilton SU. The Tiger-Cats beat them at home in June and certainly Winnipeg would like revenge but the Ti-Cats outgained the Blue Bombers by 200 yards in that beatdown. Prior to that game the road team had a yardage edge over the home team in each of the 3 prior meetings and I would not be surprised to see that trend resume here as Hamilton's road warrior efforts continue. Even though the Blue Bombers have been hot they've played a lot of weaker teams and the Tiger-Cats have a bye week on deck so they're going hard all game in this one. 10* HAMILTON |
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08-10-18 | Falcons +4 v. Jets | 0-17 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFLX Game #275 Friday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) @ New York Jets @ 7:30 ET - Similar to last night's play (Steelers OVER which went OVER before halftime) I am looking to take advantage of what the markets are creating off of long-term trending. The market is making a big move toward the Jets here in part because New York head coach Todd Bowles has an 8-4 ATS mark in preseason while Falcons coach Dan Quinn has a 4-8 ATS mark in preseason. However, lets take a closer look at just how their preseason games have unfolded because the fact is the Jets are only 6-6 SU under Bowles while the Falcons are just "a tick" behind at 5-7 under Quinn. This line was very close to a pick'em when it first came out and now is all the way up to a -4 on New York in some books as of early game day morning. The fact is that the Jets only have one win by more than 4 points in preseason action under Bowles the past two seasons. Other than a crazy 32-31 loss to the Giants last year in preseason, the Jets have averaged scoring only 13 points per game in their other 7 preseason games under Bowles the past two seasons. As for the Falcons, they've held their opponent to 17 points or less in 6 of their 8 preseason games under Quinn the past two years. As you can see, the Jets are unlikely to score a whole lot here and it is tough to cover more than a field goal spread when you're not scoring many points! Also, the Falcons have averaged scoring 19 points per game in their last 3 preseason road games with a posted total of 40 or less. The O/U on this game is in the mid-30s and I am happy to grab the value here with the undervalued dog. Yes it is "only" preseason but I don't foresee the Falcons again going 0-4 like they did last season. Look for a very tight game in New York tonight and grab the points! 8* ATLANTA |
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08-09-18 | Twins v. Indians -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #910 Thursday 8* Cleveland Indians Run Line -1.5 runs vs Minnesota Twins @ 1:10 ET - While I certainly respect the Twins Jose Berrios the numbers don't lie. He has struggled this season in day games. Berrios is 8-2 in night games but just 3-6 in day games with a 4.50 ERA. Also, the Minnesota right-hander is 8-2 in home games this season but only 3-6 in road games with a 4.30 ERA. Not only is this Thursday match-up a road game and a day game, he also is matched up with Corey Kluber whom has phenomenal numbers in day games! Kluber is not only 8-3 with a 2.01 ERA in home games this season, he also is a PERFECT 8-0 with a minuscule 1.66 ERA in his 10 day game starts! Those of you thinking that might be a one year thing or just a "fluke", note that Kluber went 10-2 with a 1.81 ERA in his home games last season plus a phenomenal 7-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his day game starts in 2017! He loves pitching at home and he loves pitching in day games. The proof is in the numbers. Of course I am not going to lay a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line but note that the Indians are at even money right now on the run line at -1.5 runs and this is offering superb line value! Cleveland is 9-4 in their last 13 games and 9 of the Indians last 10 wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Minnesota, on the other hand, is 3-9 in their last 12 games. Also, 8 of the Twins last 9 losses have come by at least 2 runs. This one shapes up to be a home blowout. 8* CLEVELAND Run Line |
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08-06-18 | Twins +1.5 v. Indians | 0-10 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
RL Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 Monday 8* Minnesota Twins Run Line +1.5 runs @ Cleveland Indians @ 7:10 ET - The Indians Trevor Bauer has a well-deserved stellar reputation. However, he is over-priced here considering his current form plus his history versus the Twins plus the fact that Minnesota's Kyle Gibson has pitched very well in his own right this season! Bauer has walked 11 batters in his last 3 starts and his most recent start was versus the Twins and he had more walks than strikeouts versus Minnesota. Some struggles against the Twins isn't a big surprise as he actually has given up 14 runs (9 earned) in the 18 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus Minnesota. Also, in the last 2 outings he has walked 7 in 12 innings. As for the Twins Gibson, he has a 2.89 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Indians. Also, though Minnesota is only 4-5 in his last 9 road starts, 4 of the 5 defeats came by a single run. In other words, at +1.5 runs the Twins are 8-1 in Gibson's last 9 road starts. Hence the huge value here with Minnesota available at a "pick'em" price on the run line in this match-up. The Twins right-hander has a stellar 2.94 ERA on the road this season! Also, the Indians enter this game off of back to back wins and they've managed to win 3 straight wins only ONCE the past 4 weeks. In other words, an outright upset here would not surprise but certainly I like the additional value here should the road team lose this one by a single run. At -1.5 runs, the Indians are just 3-4 in Bauer's last 7 starts. 8* MINNESOTA Run Line +1.5 runs |
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08-03-18 | Hamilton v. Montreal +7 | Top | 50-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Game #376 Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7:30 ET - The Tiger-Cats went 6-12 last season and they are 2-4 so far this season. The Alouettes went 3-15 last season and are 1-5 so far this season. The point is that both teams are on track to have similar seasons to last year and there is not a lot that separates these two teams and yet Hamilton is laying a solid 7 on the road here at Montreal. The last time these two teams met in Quebec the Ti-Cats were favored in the 3 range. This means we're getting solid line value with the "ugly home dog" in this one. The key for the Als here is that one of their weaknesses has certainly been the play of the offensive line this season. However, Johnny Manziel gets the start at QB for Montreal here and certainly his running ability adds a factor that favors the Als in this match-up. Manziel as a run threat will keep the Hamilton defense off balance and, keep in mind, they're rushing defense is last in the league in terms of yards allowed per carry. That also makes RB Tyrell Sutton a threat to the Tiger-Cats defense as he may get more than his typical number of carries in this match-up. Additionally, Sutton has become a bigger threat in the passing game this season and that means Manziel and Sutton will both be dual threats in this match-up. This is a double revenge spot for the Als too as they lost badly in both games last season against Hamilton after previously covering each of the prior two meetings. Payback here. As strong as Ti-Cats QB Jeremiah Masoli's passing numbers are this season he has thrown more picks than touchdowns on the year! Hamilton continues to be over-rated and this could be their 4th straight SU loss and, at the very least, I am projecting this one to be an ATS loss for the stumbling Tiger-Cats. Hamilton is 1-5 ATS (and SU!) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Look for the Alouettes to improve to a long-term 6-3 ATS as a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points as Manziel and Sutton shine! The hungry Als are gunning hard for their first home win of the season as they won't get another chance at home until 3 weeks from now. 10* MONTREAL |
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08-02-18 | Bears +2.5 v. Ravens | 16-17 | Win | 102 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NFL Game #241 Thursday 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 8 ET - The odds makers are well aware of the success Ravens coach John Harbaugh has displayed in the preseason. He is a long-term 28-12 SU and 26-13-1 ATS. However, this line still was set in very nearly the "pick'em" range when lines first came out on the Hall of Fame game. Of course the betting markets jumped all over Baltimore and drove the line all the way up to very nearly a full field goal here. It has settled in at a 2.5 and my point is that the odds makers don't make a lot of mistakes. The line was originally set at a pick'em on a neutral field with good reason. The fact is that the Bears have a new head coach, Matt Nagy, and certainly are hungry for some success right away. In terms of stats last year in the regular season, the Bears were just as good as the Ravens in terms of defense. Also, in terms of evaluating the offenses based on yardage, Chicago's struggling offense was very close to Baltimore's in terms of full season production. With all that said, I like having the points here in what is likely to be a defensive struggle with points at a premium. Look for the Bears to prove to be a little hungrier in the Hall of Fame game opener keeping in mind that this is the first of five games for these two teams in the pre-season! Motivation will be an important factor and, off of a 5-11 season, the underdog should prove to be the more motivated team all the way around in this one. 8* CHICAGO |