Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-20-17 | Jazz v. Wolves -4 | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Top Play Annihilation Friday - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs Utah Jazz @ 8:05 ET - The Timberwolves actually led the Spurs with 5 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. They also were down just 1 point with 4 minutes to go when they missed a 3-pointer that would have given them a 2 point lead. Anyway calling San Antonio an "easy win" Wednesday didn't watch the game very closely as it certainly could have gone either way in the final minutes. In any event, this Minnesota team is well coached and also has added a ton of talent. They've got much more of a veteran presence than the young teams they've had in recent seasons. The result is likely to be a solid season and while they're moving up the Jazz are on their way down. Yes Utah won 51 games last season but they also had Gordon Hayward. You're already seeing what is happening to Boston after they acquired Hayward but he got hurt just 6 minutes into the season opener. The Celtics have seen that no Hayward has left quite a hole. Certainly Utah will be a different team without him. The Jazz did win their home opener but that was against a Denver team projected to be dead last in the division this season. Now Utah is on the road and they've gone 18-50 SU and have covered just 28 of 68 ATS when they are an underdog. That said, I am very comfortable laying the small number with the Timberwolves in their home opener. Minny is on a 45-31 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record and the Wolves are looking for payback here as they've lost 3 of 4 to the Jazz each of the last two seasons. Utah has a home game with OKC tomorrow and they'll be looking ahead to that match-up as they get down by double digits in this one in my opinion. 10* MINNESOTA |
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10-20-17 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State +3 | 38-10 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass Friday - Rickenbach CFB 8* Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (+) vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7 ET - Blue Raiders starting QB Brent Stockstill is doubtful for tonight's game but sophomore QB John Urzua now has filled in quite well and this would be his 6th straight game. The key for Urzua is minimizing turnovers and he has been much better about that on the home compared to on the road. Look for another big game from him here at home where he has 3 TDs against just 1 INT plus Urzua has completed 49 of 63 (78%) at home! Overall he has thrown for 292 yards per game in his last 4 games and I like the fact that the Middle Tennessee has played a tougher schedule thus far in comparison with Marshall. Though the Thundering Herd are 2-0 in conference action they've faced Old Dominion and Charlotte - teams that are a combined 2-11 on the season! The teams that MTSU has faced are a combined 6-2 in conference action and none of the 3 teams has a losing record. Also, the Blue Raiders won their lone home game in CUSA action thus far and they won it by 20 points! Middle Tennessee plays this game with revenge after losing badly at Marshall last season due to a 4-0 turnover deficit! The host is a perfect 4-0 ATS all time in this series and I look for the Blue Raiders to make that 5-0 tonight! 8* MIDDLE TENNESSEE |
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10-18-17 | 76ers +7 v. Wizards | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Wednesday NBA 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The 76'ers were a sizable dog in all 3 match-ups with the Wizards last year. Not only did the Sixers cover 2 of the 3 games, they won the 2 games outright as a big dog each time. Also, in the lone loss, Philly was tied at Washington at half-time. The point is that the 76'ers did just fine "hanging with" the Wizards last season and now that they've substantially "closed the gap" this season and are likely to be a .500 team, this line seems very generous. The upstart Sixers are loaded with young talent and they are ready to go. Look for Philadelphia to immediately make a statement here in Game 1 with the ESPN cameras rolling. Joel Embiid is probable and he was only available for 31 games last season. Ben Simmons will also be on the floor after missing all of last season and he is considered a strong candidate for Rookie of the Year in the NBA this season. Additionally, Markelle Fultz is probable and he was a top draft choice in this year's draft. Yes indeed the Sixers are stacked and they are healthy and, with Gordon Hayward's injury last night being a devastating low for Boston, don't be surprised if the Sixers actually end up challenging the Raptors and Celtics for the top spot in the Atlantic this season. Philly has that much talent so the key will be remaining healthy. Also, coach Brett Brown is a strength as he came up as an assistant with Spurs coach Gregg Popovich. Now Brown finally has the pieces intact. This team is going to surprise some people and, if they do fall short against the Wizards, look for it to be by only a bucket or two as the Sixers have a great shot at the upset here. I am grabbing the generous points. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-17-17 | Celtics +3.5 v. Cavs | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Tuesday NBA 8* Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - Kyrie Irving, former Cav, now in a Celtics uniform. Isaiah Thomas, former Celtic, now in a Cavs uniform. The difference is that Thomas won't be playing tonight. He's out for possibly 2 months dealing with an ankle injury. Additionally, Cleveland's LeBron James is dealing with an ankle injury. I do expect James to play tonight but I don't expect him to be 100%. I know the Cavaliers will have Derrick Rose at point guard tonight but he's truly not quite the same player he was before the injury issues. Remember there was a span of 3 seasons there where played a total of only 49 games! I also look for the Gordon Hayward acquisition to pay off big dividends for Boston as he averaged 22 points a game for Utah last season. The road team has dominated at the betting window in match-ups between these teams in recent season. In last year's playoff series, won 4-1 by Cleveland (and giving Boston a revenge factor here), the road team covered all 5 games. Dating back to last April it is a perfect 6-0 ATS run for the road team in meetings between these teams. Look for 7 in a row tonight! 8* BOSTON |
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10-15-17 | Steelers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:25 ET - The Chiefs magical luck on the field and at the betting window continues. Not only is Kansas City the only undefeated team this season - 5-0 SU mark - they also are the only 5-0 ATS team as well. Of course they deserve credit for achieving this mark but taking a look back at their games raises some interesting doubt. They rallied late at New England (deceiving final score) and KC then had to rally again versus the Eagles (Philadelphia looked like the better team for much of that game). Kansas City then beat a Chargers team that is only 1-4 on the season and that preceded the absolutely ridiculous miracle cover versus the Redskins (another game where Chiefs opponent looked like the better team for much of the game). Now, after a win at Houston (but allowing 34 points), I expect Kansas City's luck has run out. They're running into an angry Steelers team that is off of an embarrassing home loss to Jacksonville. Even though Pittsburgh's win at KC in the post-season gives the Chiefs revenge in this spot, the Steelers are so "ticked off" right now that they will be the team showing much more "fight" in this game. Also, that win at Kansas City only game by 2 points for the Steelers but they significantly ougained the Chiefs in that game. In fact, the Steelers have outgained KC by an average of 120 yards per game in the last two meetings. More of the same here. The AFC North is known for tough, physical football and the Chiefs can't hang. Look for them to drop to 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against the AFC North. I love having the substantial points here and the Steelers are a long-term 74-53 ATS as an underdog. Pittsburgh entered this season 10-1 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points when facing an opponent on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Also, the Steelers are 5-0 ATS as dogs when facing a team with a winning record that is playing against them with revenge! Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS when they are home off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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10-15-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Jaguars | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4:05 ET - The Jaguars are off of their huge win at Pittsburgh last week. Jacksonville has yet to win back to back games this season and I don't expect that to change here. The Rams are hungry after their tough home loss versus the Seahawks last week. Los Angeles is a very improved football team this year as they actually outgained Seattle by over 130 yards in the 16-10 loss but they were done in by turnovers. That has helped to create some line value here and I do expect the Rams to respond in a big way after last week's frustrating loss to the Hawks. LA is averaging 272 passing yards per game as Jared Goff has responded very well to all the coaching staff changes that took place for the Rams heading into this season. By comparison, Jacksonville's passing attack is averaging only 159.6 yards per game. I look for the aerial attack to be a key difference-maker in this game. Being a favorite is certainly not a good role for the Jags. They've gone 2-6 ATS (and SU!) as a fave and the Jaguars are also an ugly 1-7 ATS (and SU!) in their games against NFC opponents. Give me the hungry road dog off of a loss as I expect Jacksonville gets caught still celebrating their huge win at Pittsburgh! 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-15-17 | Lions +4.5 v. Saints | 38-52 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - The Saints are getting accolades for their defensive turnaround in their past two games but I am not sold on them just yet. Yes they had the good performance versus the Panthers 3 weeks ago but that was largely a victory fueled by 3 Carolina turnovers. Note that in their other 3 games, New Orleans has only forced 1 turnover! Also, the fact the Saints shut down the Dolphins two weeks ago could certainly have an asterisk by it for two reasons. One, strange things happen in those games played in London - Ravens completely annihilated by Jaguars there earlier this season! Secondly, the Dolphins are absolutely the worst offense in the NFL. The point is that the Saints face a major challenge this week with Matthew Stafford and company coming to town. The Lions, of course, are use to playing in a dome and they won here both last season and the prior season as well. Detroit will be very hungry here as they fell just short of the comeback win versus Carolina last week. In road games with a posted total of 49.5 or more, the Lions are on a perfect 4-0 ATS (and SU!) run. The Saints are 0-2 ATS (and SU!) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. That makes this a "double perfect" spot to back the Lions and that's precisely what I am doing. The Saints are off of their bye week but the Lions have their bye week on deck and are coming off of a loss. They'll be hungry to get back on the winning track prior to their bye. 8* DETROIT |
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10-15-17 | Akron v. Western Michigan -12 | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
Sunday Special - Rickenbach CFB 8* Western Michigan Broncos (-) vs Akron Zips @ 1 ET - The weather is a key to this play. While the rain that forced the postponement of this game from Saturday to Sunday has mostly ended, the key weather element today is the wind. It will be very windy with gusts up to 40 mph. This is going to force these teams to rely on the rushing attack and that is where the Broncos have a huge edge. Western Michigan's weakness on defense has been the passing attack but the Zips can't exploit that, especially with today's weather. However, as for the ground game, the Broncos have allowed only 68 rushing yards per game in their last 3 games while their own offense has run for an average of 302 yards per game! Western Michigan is ultra talented in the backfield with 3 tailbacks that all can create havoc for opposing defenses. The Zips are off of a big win but they faced a Ball State without their starting QB. I know the Broncos are off of a 7 OT win versus Buffalo but the fact they did hang on for the win PLUS now got an extra day of rest thanks to Mother Nature AND they're at home here means that we've got a solid "play on" situation here. The Broncos battles with USC and Michigan State early this season really helped set the tone for them and they've now won 4 straight games and their 3 home games this season have all been wins by an average margin of 32 points per game. By the way, Western Michigan also beat the Zips by a count of 41-0 last season. Akron is on a 3-12 ATS run as a road dog of 10.5 to 14 points. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points and are facing a team that is off of 2 or more consecutive SU wins. 8* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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10-14-17 | Utah v. USC -13 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #174 Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (-) vs Utah Utes @ 8 ET - The Trojans have underachieved so far this season but they're getting a little healthier now and the odds makers set this line "big" even though USC is on an 0-4 ATS run because they know what they're doing! Southern Cal is set to blast Utah here as the Utes are definitely not the same team without QB Tyler Huntley and he is listed as doubtful for this game. Utah is off of a home loss to Stanford and the Cardinal aren't the powerhouse they once were so that says a lot right there. The Utes could be suffering from unbeaten letdown here. Also, USC has revenge from a 31-27 loss at Utah last year. Southern Cal is 3-0 both SU and ATS the last 3 times they've hosted the Utes. Also, USC has played a MUCH tougher schedule this season than the Utes have. Look for battle tested Southern Cal to be ready to blast Utah in this one. The markets and the public will be fooled here because they're not properly factoring in the QB situation for Utah (having to turn to Williams) and the fact that Utah has played the much easier schedule and now faces a tremendous road test here against a revenge-seeking Trojans team that also plans to make a "statement" in this game. 10* USC |
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10-14-17 | BC +5.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach Saturday CFL 10* Top Play BC Lions (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - The last 5 meetings between these teams have all been decided by 3 points or less with an average margin of just 2.4 points per game during this stretch. That said, I love having the 5.5 points here with a hungry BC team that is still very much alive in the playoff chase. The fact that Winnipeg's QB Matt Nichols is going to play actually helps us here because the injury he has is to his throwing hand and I expect this to impact him. The Lions certainly could "steal" this one on the road and, even if BC falls short of the upset they should still stay well within the inflated number in this one. When the Lions enter a game on a streak of 2 or more losses they are on a 7-2 ATS run. Also, as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, British Columbia has gone 4-0 ATS. As for Winnipeg, when in the 2nd half of a season and facing a team with a losing record on the year, the Blue Bombers have gone 4-8 ATS. This is the perfect set-up for an upset here with Winnipeg still reeling from their home loss to Hamilton. 10* BC LIONS |
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10-13-17 | Calgary v. Hamilton +10 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach Friday CFL 10* Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - The Stampeders are the top team in the CFL but they are off of a bye week and now laying practically double digits on the road against a Tiger-Cats team that has proven to be very resilient. After a horrific 0-8 start to the campaign, Hamilton has now gone 4-2 since their bye week. The two losses have each come by 8 points and one of those was in overtime. As you can see, the Ti-Cats haven't lost a game by more than 8 points in nearly 2 months. Additionally, as you can see, sometimes a teams fortune can quickly change after a bye week. Don't be surprised if Calgary is a little sluggish after their bye week. After all, the Stampeders have already clinched a post-season spot and they can't help but be peeking ahead at future divisional games too rather than worrying about an East Division foe like Hamilton. Calgary is 0-3 ATS as a road fave of 7.5 to 10 points. The Tiger-Cats are on a 7-3 ATS run as an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* HAMILTON |
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10-13-17 | Clemson v. Syracuse +24 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Friday CFB 8* Syracuse Orange (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 7 ET - With QB Kelly Bryant now listed as probable for this game, the line has jumped to as high as 24 as of early gameday morning. Keep in mind, the last thing the Tigers want to do is risk further injury to their starting QB in a game which they should win comfortably. In other words, I am looking for Clemson to win this game by about 10 to 17 points but that's it. They will look to coast to victory once they get up by a decent margin and Syracuse certainly has the potential for a backdoor cover too (if needed). The Orange offense has averaged 468.8 yards per game this season. Syracuse is also known for being much tougher to play against when they are at home. As a perfect example of that, the Orange got blown out 54-0 last year at Clemson but they only lost by 10 points the prior year when they faced them in Syracuse. I also like the fact that the Tigers have a bye on deck here. They could end up being a little too "relaxed" for this one as Clemson is 6-0 on the season and playing for a 7th straight week and certainly they are looking ahead to enjoying a much-needed week off. It could result in this game being much closer than many are expecting as Syracuse is averaging 32 points a game this season. Clemson is on a 2-4 ATS run as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. The Orange are on a 5-2 ATS run as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points. Also, the Orange have gone 8-4 ATS their last 12 games versus teams with a winning record and that includes a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. 8* SYRACUSE |
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10-12-17 | Eagles +3.5 v. Panthers | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:25 ET - Even though Panthers are 4-1 on the season, they are 2-1 in the last 3 games and those 2 losses each came by just a field goal. Getting the Eagles at +3.5 is certainly a great value here as the Panthers only blowout win this season came against a 49'ers team that is still winless on the season. The Panthers other win saw them score just 9 points versus Buffalo. Although the Eagles are expected to be without offensive tackle Lane Johnson in this one, his back-up is Halapoulivaati Vaitai and he has plenty of experience. Also, Philadelphia will look to take advantage of a Panthers secondary that is a bit banged up right now. Keep in mind the Eagles offense averages 397.8 yards per game which is behind only the Patriots and Chiefs this season! That's pretty good company to keep and Philly is averaging 27.4 points per game this season whereas the Panthers have scored a TOTAL of only 22 points in their two home games this year! Also, the road team has won 4 of the 5 Thursday games this season and while the Panthers were in Detroit Sunday the Eagles enjoyed a home game Sunday versus Arizona. The Panthers are 2-6 ATS all time in Thursday games. Even though this line is currently 3.5, it is still worth noting that the Eagles are 13-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 4 points when they are playing with revenge against an NFC team. It shows you that Philadelphia does play well in scenarios like this and the Eagles lost in their last visit here in October of 2015 and I am expecting payback tonight. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +4 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
MNF Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach Monday NFL 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:30 ET - The Bears have been very strong on defense this season. Chicago is allowing only 306.2 yards per game. Their biggest problem has been turnovers by the offense. That is why the switch to rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky certainly doesn't cause me concern. It actually does give the Bears a better chance to win because QB Mike Glennon had been a turnover machine for Chicago. Although Sam Bradford is likely to be back at QB for the Vikings here, his knee is not 100% and the Bears defense is very aggressive and likely to cause some problems for an inconsistent Minnesota offensive attack. The home team has won each of the last 3 meetings between the teams and the one loss by a home team in the last 4 meetings came by just 3 points. In this spot we're getting more points than that with the home dog Bears and I like our chances. Chicago is actually 7-0 ATS in home games with a posted total between 35.5 and 42 points. Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in a road game with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. The Bears had the Thursday game last week so they've had extra time to prepare Trubisky for this game and get him ready working with the other starters on the offense as they prepare for this critical divisional match-up. The Bears have revenge from a 38-10 beating at Minnesota in the last meeting with the Vikes. That is significant here as Chicago is off of a blowout loss at Green Bay (due to turnovers) and the Bears are 11-2 ATS when they are at home and playing with revenge and coming off of an ATS loss by a double digit margin! The Vikings, in divisional games, are 1-7 as road favorites when they are off a loss (both SU and ATS). The Vikes were favored last week and they lost outright to Detroit. That is noteworthy here as Minnesota is 0-10 ATS when they are road favorites and coming off of an upset loss as a favorite. Also, the Vikings are 0-6 ATS on the road in Monday night games. As you see, there are plenty of ATS stats that support playing on Chicago and playing against Minnesota. Just adding up the perfect ones (1 in support of the Bears and 2 going against the Vikes) and you have a 23-0 ATS spot tonight that favors the Bears. I'll take it! 8* CHICAGO |
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10-09-17 | Edmonton -7.5 v. Montreal | Top | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Monday CFL 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (-) @ Montreal Alouettes @ 2 ET - The Alouettes can say all they want about the fact that they're not going to stop fighting and they're still mathematically alive in the playoff race but the fact is that Montreal is playing dreadful football. They got crushed by the Stampeders last week and their still without starting QB Durant. The Als turned to Willy at QB versus Calgary and he was out of the game by the 3rd quarter as Montreal got demolished. Their offense is the worst in the league while the Eskimos, despite also being on a losing streak like the Als are, have the top offense in the league for yardage. Edmonton picked up a running back heading into this game whom is a solid blocking back but their ground game also could do some damage here against a Montreal rush defense that has been getting shredded on the ground. The Eskimos have dominated East Division teams this season and they still control their own destiny in the playoff races so I expect a big effort from a resurgent Edmonton team to surface in this afternoon match-up on Thanksgiving Day in Canada. Look for the Eskimos to improve to 6-1 against the East this season and, as for the cover, though Edmonton's full season ATS numbers are ugly, the Alouettes just don't have the offensive weapons to keep up here so I see the Eskimos finally cashing a ticket ATS in this one as well. Look for them to win by a dozen points or more. Though Montreal is playing with revenge they are 0-9 SU (and 2-7 ATS) this season when playing with revenge. Also, the Alouettes are on an 0-3 ATS and SU run in Monday games. More of the same here! 10* EDMONTON |
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10-08-17 | Cardinals +6.5 v. Eagles | 7-34 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - The Eagles defense is still quite banged up and they have a short turnaround ahead as they travel to Carolina for a Thursday night game this coming week. Philadelphia has given up 354 passing yards per game in their past two weeks. That spells trouble against an Arizona team that has thrown for an average of 302 passing yards per game the past 3 weeks! On the flip-side, the Cardinals have allowed an average of only 191 passing yards per game the past 3 weeks. The Eagles are 3-1 on the season but, in Week 1, they didn't pull comfortably away from the Redskins until very late. Since then the Eagles have gone 2-1 but the two victories each came by no more that a field goal margin. The point is that Philadelphia is going to again have their hands full this week as nothing has come easy for them this season. Should the Eagles prevail I look for it to again be by 3 points or less. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS on the season but they are certainly one of the best win-less ATS teams that have seen at this point in a season and we are getting extra line value as a result. I'll take it. The past two seasons the Eagles have gone 1-3 (both SU and ATS) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more. Philadelphia is also 0-4 ATS their last 4 against NFC West opponents. Arizona is 11-1 ATS when on the road against a non-divisional opponent with a winning percentage greater than .700 and the Eagles currently sit at .750 on the young season. Combining these "play on" and "play against" factors and you have an 18-2 (90%) ATS spot in favor of the Cardinals. 8* ARIZONA |
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10-07-17 | Ottawa v. BC -4.5 | Top | 30-25 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Saturday 10* Top Play BC Lions (-) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - Both teams have struggled recently and will be looking to bounce back but this situation strongly favors the Lions and not just because of the home field edge with this game being played in BC. The Lions also are off of their bye week whereas last week the Redblacks were in action and lost a tight one versus Saskatchewan. While Ottawa is frustrated mentally and fatigued physically, BC is fired up and refreshed coming out of their bye week. The Lions know they are in a must win situation and I like the fact that BC is 7-1 ATS the past 3 seasons when they enter a game on a losing streak of 2 games or more. I know that the Redblacks have a lot of impressive ATS stats but they are a long-term 5-12 ATS as a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, Ottawa is an ugly 1-6 SU in games against the West Division this season. The Lions are 4-2 this season and 14-8 the past 3 seasons combined (both of those records both SU and ATS) when they are facing teams from the East. It's more West dominance over the East here in a situation that is very favorable with the rested home team laying a small number here. 10* BC LIONS |
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10-07-17 | Southern Miss +13 v. UTSA | Top | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Insider Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #351 Saturday 10* Top Play Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (+) @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 7 ET - This game is being played in my backyard as I live in the San Antonio area. As a matter of fact my 4-year university degree is from UTSA and I follow the Roadrunners closely. This is the perfect spot to fade them. They are 3-0 this season but truly are over-hyped at this point. They've played a super easy schedule as the 3 teams they have beaten are a combined 2-11 on the season. Also, the Runners are the most penalized team in the nation as they've averaged 103 penalty yards per game! That is going to eventually catch up with them in a close game and that is precisely what I am expecting here. UTSA is facing a revenge-minded conference foe as Southern Miss got embarrassed in their last game here (last October). The Golden Eagles lost by 23 even though they held a 31-17 edge in first downs! Needless to say it was a "fluke" final score and payback is on order here. The Southern Miss running back, Ito Smith, is one of the best backs in the conference. Their wide receivers, Allenzae Staggers and Korey Robertson, are both 6'1 and very athletic and will create some match-up problems for the UTSA secondary. The Golden Eagles have had this game circled and they were 3-0 ATS on the season before last week's embarrassing home loss to North Texas. That loss to the Mean Green helped to create additional line value here as well. UTSA does have North Texas on deck and they are 0-4 ATS the week before facing the Mean Green. Also, the Roadrunners entered this season just 1-5 ATS when they are a favorite of more than 6 points against an opponent seeking revenge. That is the case here and the Golden Eagles are going to give them all they can handle in this one which makes the big points very generous. 10* SOUTHERN MISS |
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10-07-17 | West Virginia +13 v. TCU | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #387 Saturday 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 3:30 ET - Oftentimes, when a team is rolling, the last thing they need is a break but they don't have a choice. That is the case here with a TCU team that is off to a 4-0 start this season but then had a bye week last week. Note that last season the Horned Frogs went 0-2 ATS when coming off of a bye. Another factor against TCU here is that they've been winning even though they're giving up huge yardage. The Horned Frogs allowed at least 463 yards in each of their last two games and yet managed to win each by an average of 16.5 points. In their final game before the bye they were actually outgained at Oklahoma State but managed to win by 13 thanks to 4 Cowboys turnovers. All of this has created line value here because, while TCU certainly should win this game, they are over-priced. West Virginia's defense certainly hasn't been impressive either but they're not the team laying nearly two touchdowns here! That said, it is the Mountaineers offense that will keep them in this game. As noted above, the Horned Frogs have been giving up some big yardage but have been taking advantage of turnovers. West Virginia has had 0 or 1 turnover in 3 of their 4 games and another solid effort from a Mountaineers offense that is averaging 596 yards of offense per game is going to keep pressure on TCU all game long. West Virginia's only loss this season was the opener against Virginia Tech but the Mountaineers did outgain the Hokies by 123 yards in that game! TCU is on a 6-16 ATS run as a favorite and the Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. As you can see, TCU hasn't fared well in home games expected to be shootouts and this one certainly fits that description! I am expecting this play against situation that favors the Mountaineers to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS! 8* WEST VIRGINIA |
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10-06-17 | Hamilton +13 v. Winnipeg | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Friday CFL 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - The Tiger-Cats started this season 0-8. But they have certainly been a different team since then. Fortunately for Hamilton they play in the watered down East Division and they actually are still alive in the playoff chase. The Ti-Cats got a much needed bye after their 0-8 start and they have been a different team ever since. Hamilton has gone 3-2 but the 2 losses each came by single digit margins and one of those was in OT as well. The point is that Hamilton is offering good value here as a big underdog when one considers how they have been playing. Although Winnipeg has certainly been playing great football and is unquestionably the 2nd best team in the league (behind Calgary) right now, the fact is that the Blue Bombers are in a tough scheduling spot here. They are off of a win at Edmonton and they have a big game at BC on deck. Of course both of those teams are divisional foes and that makes this a "sandwich game" for Winnipeg. I see the Blue Bombers doing enough to get the win here but I don't see them covering this large number against a hungry underdog that has proven they still have plenty of fight left in them. 10* HAMILTON |
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10-06-17 | Golden Knights v. Stars -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
NHL Network Smash - Rickenbach Friday NHL 8* Dallas Stars Puck Line -1.5 goals (+130) vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:35 ET - Certainly Dallas has a big game on deck at St Louis for tomorrow night. However, this is the season opener and, of course, home opener for the Stars and that means there is no way they're going to overlook the Golden Knights. While Vegas has a decent defense (at least based on the roster they've built), I believe their goaltending is a definite area of concern as Marc-Andre Fleury has certainly seen his better years. Also, the offense is a concern as that looks like the weakness of this Vegas team. They've certainly been able to pool some talent and they're going to sneak up on some teams throughout the season, particularly at home, but they are destined to get beat badly in their season opener. Dallas will be amped up for their home opener and the Stars had arguably the best off-season of any of the NHL teams. Of course I don't lay big juice so no way would I be recommending a play on the money line here. However, I love the added value of the +130 range currently being offered on this puck line play. Dallas should win this by 2 or more as Vegas still has to adjust to all the new faces and playing together as a team in this, their expansion, year. The Golden Knights will improve as the season goes on but I foresee some struggles early on and that begins here against a Stars team determined for a hot start after missing out on the playoffs last season. They are fired up! 8* DALLAS on the puck line -1.5 goals +130 |
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10-05-17 | Patriots -5 v. Bucs | 19-14 | Push | 0 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL 8* New England Patriots (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:25 ET - As I had mentioned prior to this season, the Patriots were one of my teams to generally fade this season as they had such ridiculous ATS success last season. That included burning me in the Super Bowl in that miracle comeback and cover versus the Falcons. In any event, indeed the Pats have been a team to fade this season and they've gone just 1-3 ATS thus far. However, their lone cover came after their first SU loss and I expect New England to again respond off of a loss here with a cover. The Patriots have played a much tougher schedule thus far in comparison with the Buccaneers. Also, Tampa Bay has turned the ball over 4 times this season and they have not forced any turnovers in their past two games. New England has turned the ball over only once this entire season and the Pats have forced 4 turnovers in their past two games. Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU and ATS in Thursday games. The Patriots, in weeks 5 through 9, are on a 9-0 SU run and 7-1-1 ATS. 8* NEW ENGLAND |
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10-02-17 | Redskins +7 v. Chiefs | 20-29 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 4 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass Monday - Rickenbach NFL 8* Washington Redskins (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 PM ET - It so hard to win in the NFL week in and week out and, with the Falcons getting upset at home by the Bills Sunday, the lone remaining undefeated team is the Chiefs. Now certainly Kansas City has played good football this season but they're also over-rated in my opinion. Last week against the Chargers they were certainly helped by 3 Los Angeles turnovers. The fact is that the Chiefs were outgained by the Chargers in that game and the 14 point win for KC certainly fits the bill as a deceiving final. When factor that along with the fact that Kansas City truly pulled away late in each of their first two wins (at New England and versus Philadelphia) and you have the perfect recipe of an over-priced, over-rated team. The Chiefs scoring defense ranks high but their defense based on yardage ranks them near the bottom of the league and that right there tells you a lot. The Redskins defense (based on yardage) actually ranks near the top of the league and comparing these two offenses (based on yards per game) shows the Chiefs ranked only slightly higher. The point is we're getting fantastic value here with a Redskins team that is quite talented and you know Washington is going to "bring it" on a national TV Monday night game. By the way, the Skins also have an edge over the Chiefs in pass protection with KC ranked near the bottom of the league in sacks allowed. I also like the fact that the Redskins completely obliterated the Raiders last week and now have a bye week on deck! They are loaded with confidence and definitely read to go after undefeated Kansas City here. Redskins are a long-term 43-24 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Chiefs are on a 6-11 ATS run in home games. An outright upset wouldn't surprise here but certainly I am grabbing the generous points. The Chiefs are over-rated at this point in the season and, while the Redskins have a bye on deck, KC has a tough match-up with red hot Deshaun Watson in Houston next week! 8* WASHINGTON |
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10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks -13 | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Seattle Seahawks (-) vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:30 ET - Normally I don't lay this many points but this is not a "normal" situation and I do expect the Seahawks to roll easily in this one! I know Seattle is 0-3 ATS on the season but they've played a much tougher schedule than the Colts have. Also, Indianapolis is, of course, still without Andrew Luck at QB. They're going to struggle to move the ball at Seattle - arguably the toughest place for visitors in the NFL The 49'ers were held to 312 yards when they played here in Week 2 and, back in Week 1, the Seahawks defense also was strong on the road as they held a solid Packers team to just 225 yards of offense. Of course the Seattle defense will be dialed here as they are off of that frustrating loss at Tennessee last week. As for the Colts defense, they've given up an average of 283.7 passing yards per game this season and their ground defense has been betting bashed the past two weeks. More of the same here and that turns this one into a rout. The Seahawks have won 7 of their last 9 games against AFC foes and they've only lost 2 times ATS in those 9 games. 8* SEATTLE |
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10-01-17 | Raiders +3 v. Broncos | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Oakland Raiders (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - It is hard to look much worse than the Raiders did at Washington last week but that is part of the key to value in a spot like this. In fact, it is likely that Oakland was already peeking ahead to this game. Not only is Denver a divisional foe but the Broncos knocked the Raiders playoff positioning by upsetting them in the final regular season game last year. Of course Oakland was without Derek Carr in that game and now Carr and the Raiders are anxious for their revenge. As for the Broncos, though they still have a solid defense, they've got some significant issues on their offensive line and Oakland has the pass rushing ability to take advantage. It is likely going to be hard for the Denver offense to do much here and the Broncos have been a turnover-prone team with 2 in each game so far. Oakland is on a 13-6 ATS run in road games including 4-1 ATS when they are a road dog of 3 points or less. That is the case here and I love the value with the healthier team coming in off of an ugly loss and also seeking divisional revenge that had a playoff impact. 10* OAKLAND |
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10-01-17 | Rams +6.5 v. Cowboys | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
Early Contrarian - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Most will likely end up looking the way of Dallas here as everyone remembers the Rams dreadful season last year and certainly the Cowboys looked better in their bounce back effort versus the Cardinals. However, there are a couple of key edges here that offer significant line value for Los Angeles! The Rams last played a week ago Thursday so they have a huge rest edge over a Dallas team that just played on Monday night. Also, even though LA has a divisional foe (Seattle) on deck, the Cowboys have a huge revenge game versus the Packers up next. Remember Green Bay knocked them out of the playoffs on a last second field goal last year. Dallas certainly hasn't forgotten. On a short week and with a huge game on deck and with the Cowboys documented struggles at home, I have every reason to believe the Rams are going to present a major challenge on Sunday. Los Angeles has averaged 374.3 yards per game this season. By comparison, the Cowboys have averaged just 311 yards per game this season. Dallas is on an 8-15 ATS run in games played on turf and the Cowboys are on a 4-9 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. The Rams have only been a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 point range twice in recent seasons. The result? Not only a perfect 2-0 ATS but also a 2-0 SU! I am grabbing the points here but an outright win certainly would not be a complete shock. The Cowboys are in a true sandwich spot as they love being inthe spotlight and they are off of the MNF game and now have the huge game with the Pack on deck. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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09-30-17 | Clemson v. Virginia Tech +7.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #194 Saturday 10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - Virginia Tech has taken on a much easier schedule than Clemson but the Tigers schedule has been so tough that they could run out of gas here. Clemson is playing their 3rd tough game in a span of 4 weeks as the other tough match-ups were with Auburn and Louisville and now they take on a solid Virginia Tech team. The Hokies defense has settled in nicely after struggling versus West Virginia in the opener. Of course everyone is gunning for the Tigers this season and Virginia Tech is excited about this opportunity to host the defending national champs who, like the Hokies, are a perfect 4-0 this season. Clemson did give up over 400 yards in their only road game this season, at Louisville, and I feel this will be another tough test for the Tigers. Virginia Tech is loaded with confidence after their red hot start to this season and, of course, that makes them a very dangerous dog in this spot. The Hokies are 21-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and, within that number, they are also a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Tigers are an ugly 7-12 ATS as a road fave of 3.5 to 7 points. Keep in mind the Hokies have revenge from last season's ACC Championship Game loss to the Tigers and Clemson is without their kicker as he was lost for the season with an injury. The Tigers are on a 2-6 ATS run in conference action. The Hokies are on a 14-7 ATS run as a dog in conference action. 10* VIRGINIA TECH |
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09-30-17 | Florida State v. Wake Forest +7.5 | 26-19 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
ABC Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #148 Saturday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) vs Florida State Seminoles @ 3:30 ET - The Seminoles have had a rough start to the season with all the schedule changes due to Hurricane Irma. Florida State sits at 0-2 on the young season and certainly looks to bounce back and get their first win under their belt with a W over Wake Forest in his one. However, the Noles do have a big game with Miami on deck. Considering that FSU did play Alabama their YTD numbers don't look too bad after 2 games but they certainly didn't play well against NC State. Now, with Miami on deck, and having won 21 of their last 25 meetings with the Demon Deacons, it would not surprise to see FSU underestimate Wake Forest here. Keep in mind, the Demon Deacons have certainly not played a tough schedule but the fact that they are a perfect 4-0 has allowed them to build up plenty of confidence. A revenge-seeking team that is a big home dog and that has had their confidence boosted is the very definition of a tough "out". That said, the Noles are going to have trouble putting the Demon Deacons away in this one. FSU is a long-term 25-36 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. WF is on a 12-6 ATS run as an underdog. Grab the generous points here as the Demon Deacons already have 4 games under their belt while FSU has played just two games so far. That is another edge for the home dog here. 8* WAKE FOREST |
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09-30-17 | South Florida v. East Carolina +21.5 | 61-31 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #118 Saturday 8* East Carolina Pirates (+) vs South Florida Bulls @ Noon ET - The Bulls numbers look great but their schedule has been super soft! They've played Stony Brook, an FCS team, plus San Jose State, Illinois, and Temple. San Jose State is 1-4 SU, Illinois is 1-2 ATS, Temple is 0-4 ATS. Three underachieving teams that all have been struggling. The point is that the Bulls are laying quite a steep price here considering their weak schedule and the fact that they're on the road facing an East Carolina team that has a decent offense. The Pirates have averaged 321.8 passing yards per game this season. The Pirates defense has certainly been a weakness but they've got the offense to hang around in this game against an over-priced favorite. South Florida has dominated in this series and may overlook the Pirates as a result. They have a bye week on deck and may already be going into "relax mode" before playing the full 60 minutes in this one. The Bulls also have benefited greatly from being +10 in turnovers while the Pirates are -6 in turnovers this season. The result is line value here in a spot where I expect East Carolina to be excited about stepping up at home as they host a ranked conference foe. Keep in mind this is the first conference road game for the Bulls under coach Strong. 8* EAST CAROLINA |
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09-29-17 | Saskatchewan -3 v. Ottawa | Top | 18-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Friday Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - Even though the Redblacks have the rest edge (played Friday) over the Roughriders (played Sunday), Saskatchewan is a road favorite here with good reason. This is a key game in the playoff chase so the Roughriders will be ready to bounce back off of their loss and they are 3-1 this season against teams from the East. As for Ottawa, they've gone just 1-5-1 against teams from the West this season. The Redblacks have struggled with QB play as Trevor Harris has been hurt and his replacement, Ryan Lindley, struggled last week. The Roughriders have won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams. Also, Saskatchewan is 4-0 ATS when off of a loss in divisional action this season and 4-0 ATS in non-divisional games. I'll gladly test this double perfect situation Friday. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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09-29-17 | Miami-FL v. Duke +7 | 31-6 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Friday - Rickenbach CFB 8* Duke Blue Devils (+) vs Miami Hurricanes @ 7 ET - The Hurricanes have only played 2 games this season due to scheduling issues caused by, coincidentally, a hurricane! Miami really hasn't been able to get into a rhythm yet with all the scheduling complications and the Canes were only up 38-30 in the middle of the 4th quarter of last week's win over Toledo. Also, Miami's first win was over an FCS team as they faced Bethune Cookman. With that said, the Hurricanes really haven't been challenged yet and, again, they didn't look all that sharp versus the Rockets last week. Now the Canes make their first road trip of the season and they're facing a Blue Devils team that is 4-0 SU and ATS this season. Duke has faced some tougher competition than Miami has. Also, with the Hurricanes having dominated this series long-term, you know that Duke is fired up about this opportunity at home in a big weeknight match-up. I look for the Blue Devils to make the most of it. Though both teams have impressive stats on offense so far this season, the key edge favoring Duke is the strength of schedule as well as the fact that their defense is allowing 128 yards per game less than Miami's. Also, the Hurricanes have a big game on deck with Florida State. The Canes are on a long-term 7-11 ATS run as a road fave in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The Blue Devils are on a 10-5 ATS run as an underdog and a long-term run of 15-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points! Remember too that the last time Duke hosted the Hurricanes they lost on a last-second crazy play with 8 laterals that really shouldn't have counted but ended up giving Miami the win over the Blue Devils at the final gun. Crazy finish and it's revenge time here. 8* DUKE |
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09-28-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Packers | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL 8* Chicago Bears (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:25 ET - 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams have been decided by a single possession. The average margin of victory in those 3 games was 5 points and I look for the Bears to again "hang tight" in this one. Chicago did win in Green Bay in November of 2015. Also, in their most recent meeting, December of 2016 in Chicago, the Bears lost by just 3 points. The Packers off of a draining overtime win versus Cincinnati where they had to rally for the win against the Bengals. That type of win expends a lot of energy and the Packers now are playing short rest with this being a Thursday match-up. The Bears are also off of an overtime win but they let most of the game so it didn't require the same effort that Green Bay's W did. Also, Chicago has been running the ball better and defending the run better than the Packers have so far this season. I like defensive-minded dogs that hold an edge in the ground game. Especially when they're getting more than a TD like the Bears are in this one. Chicago is 13-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bears have been tough already in this TD price range this season and I look for another cover here as the Packers are also dealing with more injuries than the underdogs in this one. 8* CHICAGO |
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09-27-17 | Marlins v. Rockies -1.5 | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Run Line - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 8* Colorado Rockies -1.5 runs vs Miami Marlins @ 3:10 ET - Miami's Adam Conley has a 10.49 ERA in his last 3 starts. In his only career start at Colorado he was rocked for 6 earned runs in 5 innings. Colorado's Jon Gray has a 1.50 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, at home this season he has gone 4-1 with a 2.92 ERA. It will be a chilly, rather raw afternoon in Denver with the wind blowing in so I expect Gray to have continued success on his home mound. Rockies have averaged 6.4 runs per game in their last 8 home games. Overall, Colorado is on a 13-9 run their last 22 games after last night's shutout win. The Marlins are 8-20 their last 28 games. All signs point to a rout here and 6 of the Marlins last 7 losses have come by 2 runs or more. As for the Rockies, each of their last 6 wins have come by 2 runs or more. 8* COLORADO Run Line Wednesday afternoon |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Monday NFL 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - The Cardinals had a disappointing 7-8-1 season last year while the Cowboys went 13-3. The key though is that the breaks really seemed to go the way of Dallas last year in tight games while Arizona was at the other end of the spectrum. The result is line value in a spot like this because Dallas actually was ranked in the lower 3rd of the league for pass offense and pass defense last season. Now they come into this game off of a match-up where RB Ezekiel Elliott just couldn't get going last week and with an inability to establish the run it exposes the fact that QB Dak Prescott does not have a great arm for getting the ball downfield. As for the pass defense, the Cowboys have some injury issues in the secondary and this puts them at risk here. Arizona was actually a solid all-around team statistically last year with their offense ranking 9th in the league and their defense ranked 2nd! The point is that they deserved better than where their record ended up. Hence, the value here. Now, in week 1 they did fall apart at Detroit as turnovers ate them alive as the game went on. However, the ability to bounce back and win on the road last week (albeit in OT) was a big confidence-booster for the Cards. Speaking of confidence, Arizona has won 4 straight versus the 'Boys. This is the Cardinals home opener and they are 5-0 ATS their last 5 as a home dog in non-divisional action. Couple that with the 4-0 ATS mark in their last 4 versus Dallas and you have a 9-0, 100% PERFECT combined mark favoring the home dog Cards here. I won't be surprised to see them get the outright win in this one but certainly am happy to grab the generous points. 10* ARIZONA |
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09-24-17 | Raiders -3 v. Redskins | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
Sunday Night Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Oakland Raiders (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - The Raiders showed a lot in their season opening win at Tennessee and then they were able to coast to a blowout win over the hapless Jets last week. That home win over the Jets certainly came much easier than what the Redskins went through last week. Not only did Washington have a tough divisional battle in Week 1 with the Eagles (and they lost badly and were outplayed significantly) they then had to go to battle with a Rams team in Los Angeles last week that was much tougher to "put away" then expected. The Redskins passing attack has not looked good this season whereas the Raiders overall offensive production has them ranked among the top teams in the league. Also, Oakland's aerial attack can take advantage of a Redskins pass defense that ranks among the worst in the league here in the early going this season. The Raiders are on a fantastic 13-3 ATS run in road games and QB Carr and WR Crabtree are proving to be a dangerous combo. Even though Oakland has a big divisional game on deck with Denver, they aren't going to overlook a Sunday Night game. Also, the Raiders are a "team on a mission" after getting ousted from the playoffs last season so quickly (because QB Carr had gotten hurt at the end of the regular season). Their "mission" continues Sunday night. 10* OAKLAND |
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09-24-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3.5 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 45 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Los Angeles Chargers (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:25 ET - A lot of home dog value here because the Chargers have essentially blown both of their games as they lost by 3 points or less each time and the Chiefs have won big despite being involved in games that were very close very late each time. Kansas City certainly has impressive wins for their "resume" with a 15-point win over the Patriots and a 7-point win over the Eagles but the fact is those were close games that "turned on a dime" in the 4th quarter. That's not to say that won't happen again here but the fact is that Los Angeles has been "on the cusp" in each game and the Chargers are catching the Chiefs at the right time to "get over the hump". That was an emotional win for Kansas City in their home opener last week and I look for them to be "spent' after head coach Andy Reid led his troops to victory over a former protege (Eagles head coach Doug Pederson) and his former team (Philadelphia). The Chargers have been swept by the Chiefs each of the last 3 years and this is LA's first divisional home game. In other words, the Chargers have had this one circled! 8* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS in late afternoon action Sunday |
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09-24-17 | Bengals +8.5 v. Packers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - Both teams are off of losses last week but, statistically, both were "right there" with their opponents even though the fell short on the scoreboard. That said, the difference is the Packers lost a very important game as they were seeking revenge against the Falcons for defeating them in the NFC Championship Game in January and preventing a Super Bowl trip for Green Bay. Though the Bengals are also off of a loss last week it wasn't nearly as "deflating" of a defeat and the fact is that Cincinnati, sitting at 0-2 on the season, comes into this one very hungry as a result. The Bengals defense has played well and the team as a whole hasn't played as bad as their results would indicate as they were done in by turnovers in Week 1 and then, in Week 2, they played out a "defensive struggle" with the Texans. Keep in mind the Packers were down by as much as 24 in their loss at Atlanta last week so they certainly did not impress overall. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS when they are off of a game where they held to less than 10 points. Also, Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS when they are a dog in the first of back to back road games. The Bengals do have another road game on deck next Sunday while the Packers are in a tough scheduling spot off of a big Sunday night game and with a Thursday night game on deck. 10* CINCINNATI plus the big points in late afternoon action Sunday |
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09-24-17 | Calgary v. Saskatchewan +7 | 15-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Sunday CFL 8* Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 4 ET - Certainly Calgary is the hottest team in the league right now but Sasktachewan has also been hot as the Roughriders have won 4 of its last 5 games. Couple that with the fact that Regina is one of the toughest places for opponents to play and I like my chances here with the big dog. Of course Saskatchewan has big-time revenge on their minds here as they've been on a long losing streak in this series. However, what make this one have a little extra "tinge" of revenge is the fact that the Roughriders lost by 9 points the last time they hosted Calgary and that was even though Saskatchwan had a yardage edge and 23-17 edge in first downs. As you can see, the Roughriders deserved better and the other significance in that is that it is the only time the home team has not covered in the last 6 meetings between these clubs. On Sunday, I look for the home team dominance to continue as homers improve to 6-1 ATS in this series. The Roughriders are playing with more confidence than they have had in a long, long time and they appear poised for the upset win here. The unexpected BC loss Friday has given Saskatchewan a boost in terms of the race for a playoff spot and the beauty of this play is we don't have to get the straight-up win to get the cash. Grab the generous points available here with a dangerous home dog. 8* SASKATCHEWAN |
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09-24-17 | Broncos v. Bills +3.5 | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 0 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher Early - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 1 ET - Nice set-up here. The Broncos are off of a huge home win versus Dallas as they were up big in terms of emotions heading into that one. Now they travel for the first time this season and, not only that, Denver has a huge game on deck with division rival Oakland. This definitely looks like a "trap game" for the Broncos and, in addition, a "trap game" for the betting public. This line has been driven up from an opener of 1 to as high as a 3.5 as of Saturday evening. The Bills are on a 10-4 ATS run as a home dog and truly are "built" to be a dangerous home dog. That's because their defense ranks right up there statistically with Denver so far this season and Buffalo has a good ground game on offense. That rushing attack could surprise many by enjoying success against a Broncos run defense that, surprisingly, actually ranked among the league's worst last season. Don't be surprised if the Bills get the upset but certainly the available points are well worth the taking. 8* BUFFALO in early afternoon action |
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09-24-17 | East Carolina +4.5 v. Connecticut | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday CFB 8* East Carolina Pirates (+) @ Connecticut Huskies @ Noon ET - This game was originally scheduled for November 4th but got moved to a RARE Sunday date in late September due to the scheduling impacts of Hurricane Irma. As a result we get some RARE Sunday College Football here and I look for the underdog Pirates to respond after firing their defensive coordinator. Yes, East Carolina fired him BEFORE the Virginia Tech game and the Pirates still got throttled by the Hokies but that team is certainly at a much different level than the Huskies. Connecticut entered this season 14-35 the last 4 seasons! They only scored 20 TD's last year which was dead last in the nation. The Huskies averaged just 16 points per game on offense the last 3 seasons combined. Already this season they are struggling too as they only put up 27 in a win over Holy Cross - a team they should have blasted. The UConn defense has been giving up huge yardage too. While the same can be said of the Pirates defense, East Carolina has played the tougher schedule with games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech the past two weeks. In other words, this is the week for the Pirates to put it all together. They have the much better offense in comparison with the Huskies and I like the East Carolina D to respond here now that they've had some time since the DC was fired. Note that the Huskies are 0-7 ATS when they are at home after a non-conference game. Also, the Pirates are 9-0 ATS when they are a road dog of less than 6 points and they're coming off of a loss by double digits. Conference opener for both teams and a chance for winless East Carolina to have a fresh start. I look for them to take advantage and I certainly like the combined 16-0, 100% ATS factors in favor of the Pirates as detailed above. 8* EAST CAROLINA |
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09-23-17 | Hawaii v. Wyoming -4.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Saturday 10* Top Play CFB Game #364: Wyoming Cowboys (-) vs Hawaii Warriors @ 10:15 ET - Wyoming is getting some help from the weathermen here. Hawaii has been known to struggle in cold weather games. The Warriors just aren't used to it. Even though the calendar shows September, it's already going to be getting downright cold in Laramie, Wyoming Saturday night (Cowboys also helped by this being a night game). Temperatures will likely be in the low 40s at kickoff and could even drop into the 30s as the game goes on. Additionally it will be chilly due to a very cold rain falling and the Warriors were already at a disadvantage simply because of playing on the road and in high altitude. Hawaii relies on their offense to stay in games and I expect them to struggle in the unusual conditions. As for the Warriors defense, they have allowed over 400 yards in each of their three games and, keep in mind, that included a very bad Massachusetts team and Western Carolina - an FCS team. As for the Wyoming defense, they did struggle against Oregon (who doesn't?) but in their other two games they allowed an average of just 229 yards per game. Historically speaking, the Cowboys have won each of their last 4 times hosting Hawaii and Wyoming went 3-1 ATS in those games. Also, this is a conference game and the Cowboys are on a 10-6 ATS in conference action while the Warriors are on a 4-12 ATS run in conference games. Also, as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Hawaii is a long-term 2-17 SU run and 5-14 ATS! The Cowboys have played the much tougher schedule and are just 1-2 on the season but the Warriors are on a 1-9 ATS run in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. 10* WYOMING |
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09-23-17 | Arkansas State +6 v. SMU | 21-44 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Saturday 8* CFB Game #377: Arkansas State Red Wolves (+) @ SMU Mustangs @ 7 ET - Nice situation here for the Red Wolves. They're off their easy win versus an FCS team (Arkansas-Pine Bluff). Keep in mind, the Mustangs also had one of those earlier this season as they crushed Stephen F Austin. The key difference though is what happened in the other games for these teams. The Red Wolves fought hard in a 7-point loss at Nebraska in their season opener. As for the Mustangs, they actually did NOT outgain North Texas in their 22 point win over the Eagles. Then, in SMU's most recent game, they hung around with TCU for awhile but then fall apart as the game went on. It was a demoralizing loss because they felt it slip away as the game went on and TCU is their DFW rival. Each of the last 4 seasons, SMU has lost their next game after facing the Horned Frogs. The Red Wolves have a bye on deck and they are on an 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as they are 1-1 this season and wrapped up last season on a 7-2 run at the betting window. Even though Arkansas State is a Sun Belt team, they are up at the top of the conference each and every season and have a winning culture. As for SMU, they entered this season with an 8-28 SU record the last 3 seasons. Grab the undervalued dog here. 8* ARKANSAS STATE |
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09-23-17 | Montreal +7.5 v. Toronto | Top | 19-33 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Saturday CFL 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - I successfully played against Montreal last week as they had just made some wholesale coaching staff changes. This week I'll come back and play on the Alouettes as things have now settled down some within the organization and I look for Montreal to be "back in business" this week. With the mediocrity of the East division (and the fact Ottawa lost last night), there is plenty of incentive for both these teams as there are only 5 points in the standings separating worst from first in the East. Montreal is looking to avenge an embarrassing 38 to 6 loss at Toronto last month. In their prior meeting with the Argonauts this season (week prior to the ugly loss), the Alouettes had won 21 to 9. Though the Als are winless on the road this one has the looks of an upset, especially with the Argos off of a big home win versus Edmonton last week. Also, the Als have played well as a sizable dog and I look for them to improve to 4-2 ATS this season (and 11-7 ATS the L3 seasons combined) when they're a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Also, Montreal is 4-1 ATS in Saturday games the L3 seasons combined. The Argonauts are on a 6-16 ATS run in home games and are over-priced here. 10* MONTREAL |
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09-23-17 | Rutgers v. Nebraska -11.5 | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 55 m | Show | |
Big Ten Network Day Game - Rickenbach Saturday 8* CFB Game #350: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 3:30 ET - With the firing of their athletic director on Thursday, there are shockwaves going through Nebraska right now. However, one thing is for sure, the players know it is "put up or shut up time" and I expect a huge effort as a result. The Huskers didn't play well in their season-opening win over Arkansas State but their 7-point loss at Oregon certainly wasn't unexpected as they were a 14-point dog. Then in looking at their loss to Northern Illinois they outgained the Huskies 384 to 213 but were done in by turnovers. I firmly believe all this has served to give us fantastic line value here because now Nebraska, whom hasn't played as bad as the "bad rap" they're getting in some circles, is actually a manageable favorite against a bad Rutgers team that certainly has issues of it's own. The Scarlet Knights just don't belong as a Big Ten team. They are 6-18 the past two seasons and this season they already lost to a MAC team (just like Nebraska did last week) but, unlike the Huskers, Rutgers was outgained in their loss to a MAC foe. The Scarlet Knights are on a 6-13 ATS run as an underdog. Nebraska is 3-0 straight-up (and undefeated ATS) the past 2 seasons when they've entered a game on a losing streak of 2 games or more. Keep in mind too, this is the Scarlet Knights first road game this season. Also, this is a Big Ten opener so Nebraska will be fully focused and the Cornhuskers are 10-1 ATS when they are a favorite of more than 5 points coming off of a non-conference game. After being embarrassed by Northern Illinois last week, huge response here. 8* NEBRASKA |
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09-22-17 | Ottawa +7.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 9-29 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach Friday CFL 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8 ET - On the one hand, Winnipeg has a scheduling advantage since they are off of their bye week and Ottawa just played on Sunday. However, on the other hand, they truly are in a bit of a tough scheduling situation here as the Blue Bombers have a huge divisional game with Edmonton on deck while the Redblacks have another non-divisional match-up next week. Couple that with the fact that Ottawa is trying to hang on to the first place spot in the East Division and you truly have some solid line value here with the Redblacks plus the big points. With Trevor Harris already out with injury and Drew Tate likely to dress but not start in this one, the QB spot certainly could be questionable for Ottawa Friday. However, Ryan Lindley is likely to get the start and he had a solid college career at San Diego State and then even played a few seasons in the NFL. Lindley will be ready to go here and it helps having some time to prepare as the #1 guy like he was able to this week unlike last week when Tate got the start and Lindley only came in because of the Tate injury. The Blue Bombers went 1-3 (both SU and ATS) when off of a bye week the past two seasons and also went 3-7 ATS when, after the midway point of the season, they faced a team with a losing record. The Redblacks, when playing with 6 or less days of rest, are 18-7 ATS. Also, Ottawa is on an 18-5 ATS run in road games and a 22-6 ATS run as an underdog. Combining these ATS records with the "go against" ATS records of Winnipeg, the Redblacks are a "play on" team here at an ATS factor that combines for a 68-22 (76%) Run! 10* OTTAWA |
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09-22-17 | Virginia +13 v. Boise State | Top | 42-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach Friday CFB 10* Top Play Virginia Cavaliers (+) @ Boise State Broncos @ 8 ET - The Broncos were actually outgained in last week's win over New Mexico and they failed to cover in the 28-14 win. Boise State returned only 9 starters coming into this season and, even though QB Brett Rypien is probable for this game, he has not been overly impressive early this season. That said, I feel the Broncos are overpriced here. Overall, this team has failed to cover 11 straight home games. You read that right, it is an 0-11 ATS run for Boise State on the Blue FieldTurf at Albertsons Stadium. Even when Boise State has played back to back home games it hasn't helped either as they are on a long-term run of 1-8 ATS in the 2nd game of back to back home games. Also, as a weekday home fave of more than 7 points, the Broncos are on an 0-8 ATS run! Boise State has a bye on deck but then they face BYU. The Broncos are on an 0-4 ATS run in their games that precede facing the Cougars. Ironically, Brigham Young is a "tie-in" feature here as it relates to this match-up with Virginia. That's because Cavaliers head coach Bronco Mendenhall used to coach BYU so he has plenty of familiarity with the Boise State program. Prior to Mendenhall coming to the Cavs, they were blown out at home (56-14) by the Broncos in 2015. Certainly the Cavaliers are looking to avenge that embarrassing home loss and Virginia is 6-1 ATS when playing with revenge against an opponent with a winning record. Both these teams come into this game having gone 2-1 this season and both have a bye on deck. While an upset is asking a lot I certainly do expect the revenge-minded Cavs to stay within single digits of the Broncos in this one! Boise State is averaging only 340.7 yards of offense per game this season and the Cavaliers passing offense alone is averaging 325 yards per game this season. Coming off of a confidence-building win by a huge margin over Connecticut last week, the Cavs are a very dangerous dog here. 10* VIRGINIA |
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09-21-17 | Temple +20 v. South Florida | 7-43 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
Thursday ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB 8* Temple Owls (+) @ South Florida Bulls @ 7:30 ET - Certainly Temple has not impressed early this season but, keep in mind, South Florida was down 16-0 to a very poor San Jose State in Week 1 before they pulled away and won by 20. Then, the Bulls were actually tied with Stony Brook, an FCS team, in the 4th quarter before they pulled away and won by 14. The point is that, even though the Owls have struggled this season, they're getting nearly 3 touchdowns here against a Bulls team that hadn't truly looked good until they put it all together and played a complete game against Illinois last week. In that win over the Illini, they got 3 picks from the Illinois QB which certainly keyed the win. Note that Temple's QB has yet to thrown an INT this season so the Bulls defense is unlikely to be so fortunate here. Even though South Florida covered last week, that was their first cover the last 8 times as a favorite in a weekday game when coming off of a SU win. In other words, it is still a 1-7 ATS run for the Bulls as a weekday fave and coming off of a win and last week they had extra rest due to their game against UConn being postponed. This week USF will be on short rest having just played on Friday. As for the Owls, they have covered 6 straight weekday games against conference opponents! Look for that run to reach 7-0 ATS by the time this Thursday night affair is in the books. 8* TEMPLE |
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09-18-17 | Lions +3 v. Giants | Top | 24-10 | Win | 105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Monday Night Top Play - Rickenbach NFL 10* Detroit Lions (+) @ New York Giants @ 8:30 ET - Not only are the Giants off of a divisional loss (at Dallas), they have a another divisional match-up (at Philadelphia) on deck. This is significant as the Giants are on a 3-7 ATS run in games that precede a divisional match-up. New York, has played 18 games (including one playoff game) since Ben McAdoo took over as head coach. They've gone 9-8-1 SU in those 18 games but have averaged just 18 points per game! In their last 7 games, the Giants have averaged just 13.6 points per game. It's hard to cover any type of spread as a favorite when you're not scoring points and, even if Odell Beckham Jr returns tonight, he's not 100% and he's also not necessarily going to be a magical elixir for the struggling Giants offense. Their long-term numbers tell the real story and I look for their struggles scoring points to continue. On the other side of the equation here, the Lions are off of a big season-opening win over the Cardinals and the way they rallied from a 3rd quarter deficit and then turned it into a blowout victory gives them plenty of momentum heading into this game. Also, Detroit is playing this game with revenge as they lost at New York in a late season match-up last year. That is significant here because the Lions are on an 8-1 ATS run when they are a road dog of less than 6 points and they are playing with revenge. Detroit was done in by turnovers in the loss at New York last year as the Lions did outgain the Giants in the 17-6 defeat. Payback time here. 10* DETROIT |
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09-17-17 | Redskins +3 v. Rams | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Redskins (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - You'll be hard pressed to find a more value-filled situation than this one. The Rams are off of a huge win last week and now are getting a ton of respect from the betting markets in this one. I'd like to take this moment to remind everyone that Los Angeles was 4-12 last season and let's talk about the Colts team they just beat. Indianapolis was without QB Andrew Luck and the Colts defense was one of the worst in the league last season. Certainly the Rams benefited from Indy turnovers in that game just like the Redskins were hurt by turnovers in their loss to the Eagles last week. By the way, Philadelphia is certainly viewed as a team with playoff potential this season while the Colts (without Luck) are viewed as a team that is arguably going to be the worst team in the league this year. With that said, Washington's loss to Philly gives them huge motivation here while the Rams have a false sense of confidence after crushing a Colts team that is a mess right now. Keep in mind Los Angeles has still covered only 2 of their last 13 games while the Redskins are on a 14-6 ATS after last week's home loss. Last year the Rams defense was one of the worst in the league (including against the pass) and they now face a Redskins passing attack that was one of the best in the league last season. Look for Washington QB Kirk Cousins to bounce back with a huge effort this week. By the way, Los Angeles does have their divisional opener on deck and it is a Thursday game! Tough spot for the Rams here and the Redskins are angry! 10* WASHINGTON |
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09-17-17 | Eagles +6 v. Chiefs | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - The Chiefs just beat the defending Super Bowl champs. That was a huge upset win in the NFL season opener and it leaves Kansas City ripe for an upset here. While KC is off of an upset win, the Eagles are off of a win in a game that was right around a "pick 'em" spread. Philadelphia played very well on defense and forced turnovers in that game while QB Carson Wentz also proved his value with a solid game and making big plays when he had to. The Eagles are on an 11-2 ATS run against AFC opponents. A tightener within that is that it is a perfect 7-0 ATS run if their non-conference opponent has a winning percentage of .400 or more. Of course the Chiefs are 1-0 after their big 42-27 win at New England. Note that Kansas City is 0-5 ATS when they are at home off of a game where they scored 35 points or more! That means this spot is a combined 12-0 ATS in favor of the Eagles. I'll take it. Remember the Eagles were 5-1 last season in the games that offensive lineman Lane Johnson played in. He is back this season after the 10-game suspension last year and the Eagles running game looks very potent with LaGarrette Blount now in the mix! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-17-17 | Cardinals -6.5 v. Colts | 16-13 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Early No Doubt Rout - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 8* Arizona Cardinals (-) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 1 ET - Last week, Arizona looked like they were headed for a road win against a Lions team that was in the playoffs last season. However, the Cardinals were outscored 24-6 to finish the game as they blew the lead thanks in part to a rare turnover-filled game from QB Carson Palmer. The Colts are also off of a loss but their situation was much different. Indianapolis was simply dreadful last week at Los Angeles and the Colts got buried by a 37-point margin by a Rams team that was 4-12 last season. That is bad news for Indy here as they're really taking a step up in class this week as Arizona is much better than their 6-10 record last season and yes I am aware that RB David Johnson is out with injury. The Colts are not only still without QB Andrew Luck, they also were one of the worst defenses in the league last season while the Cardinals ranked as one of the best stop units in the NFL. The Cards are on a 6-3 ATS run as a road fave of 3.5 to 7 points. The Colts are 1-6 ATS when they're facing a non-divisional opponent that is off of a straight-up loss as a favorite. The Cardinals were a small fave at Detroit last week and they're fired up about the way they let that game get away and the way they came unglued as the game went on. The Cardinals need to "get right" before their home opener against Dallas coming up on Monday night. Look for the Cards to use the down-trodden Colts as their "punching bag" in this one. Road rout. 8* ARIZONA |
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09-16-17 | Clemson v. Louisville +3.5 | Top | 47-21 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week Top Play - Rickenbach CFB 10* Saturday Game #148 - Louisville Cardinals (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - Clemson, reigning national champs, gets a ton of respect from the betting markets. Of course when you're coming off of a championship season you should but the fact is that the Tigers lost a ton of talent from last year's team. A QB who threw for over 4,000 yards plus a running back who ran for over 1,000 yards and a receiver who had more than 1,000 yards gained on receptions last season. Certainly this is still a very talented team but they did lose a lot of starters from last year's squad. Of course those "holes" haven't showed up yet but as they now face a conference foe that is ultra talented and gunning for them, I think you'll see it first-hand today! The Cardinals have the edge as their defense, just like Clemson, is fantastic but Louisville has the extra edge at QB. Of course former Tiger Deshaun Watson is now in the NFL but the Cards Lamar Jackson is still at the collegiate level wrecking havoc on defenses. He will be the difference maker here. The Cardinals are on a 7-1 ATS run when they are an underdog of less than 6 points. Considering the big posted total here, the odds makers expect quite a bit of scoring. The Tigers are on a 5-10 ATS run long-term in road games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. The fact that two high quality defenses are matched up and yet a big total is posted here tells you that some big plays are going to be made here. When all is said and done I certainly like the revenge-minded Cardinals and ultra-talented Jackson to be the ones making more of those big plays on offense! The Tigers offense is still adjusting after losing key talent from last year. 10* LOUISVILLE |
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09-16-17 | LSU -7 v. Mississippi State | 7-37 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB 8* Saturday Game #187 - LSU Tigers (-) @ Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 7 ET - Mississippi State, of course, will be amped up and hoping for the big performance at home necessary to knock off a strong LSU team. However, don't lose sight of the fact that the Bulldogs only won 5 games in the regular season last year. In fact, Mississippi State entered this season on a 6-9 SU run in their last 15 regular season games. Both the Bulldogs and Tigers have impressed early this season but of course the competition has been weak. The key here is that there is more of a difference between the current state of these two SEC foes than what is being factored into this line but we're getting line value because Mississippi State has played weak competition and hasn't been "exposed" just yet. The Tigers are the stronger team in the trenches and have much more in the way of game-changing speed and talent on both sides of the ball. LSU has won each of the last two meetings but by slim margins. That's because the Tigers have blown big leads in each game. They've learned their lesson and I expect them to keep their foot on the gas in this one. In other words, they again get up by double digits but this time they don't let the Bulldogs get back into it. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points! Mississippi State is on a 3-6 ATS run in home games. 8* LSU |
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09-16-17 | BC +10 v. Calgary | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator Top Play - Rickenbach Saturday CFL 10* BC Lions (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - The Stampeders are on a fantastic winning streak. However, they are very banged up at receiver. Also, they're facing a very physical Lions team that has their eyes set on revenge here. BC lost at home to Calgary last month in a tight game. BC also got embarrassed by the Stamps in last year's post-season. That said, this is a big game for the Lions and I like getting the big points. This is especially true with Calgary missing some key talent at the receiver spot. I don't necessarily expect the Lions to get the outright win here but certainly they should keep this one to a TD or less. For the 4th time in the last 6 meetings, look for this one to be decided by 4 points or less. Lions QB Jonathan Jennings made an impressive return to the lineup last week for the injury Travis Lulay. British Columbia is an impressive 55-29 ATS long-term as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Grab the big points here! 10* BC LIONS early Saturday evening |
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09-16-17 | Notre Dame -13 v. Boston College | 49-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB 8* Saturday Game #115 - Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-) @ Boston College Eagles @ 3:30 ET - The Eagles were a small home dog last week versus Wake Forest and got blasted 34-10. That drops Boston College to 0-7 ATS the last 7 times they've been a home dog! This ATS losing streak dates back to the 2014 season and the long-term futility is likely to continue here. The Eagles defense is again playing quite well this season but so too is Notre Dame's. The difference in this game is that the play of the two offenses is light years apart! The Fighting Irish are off of a tight loss last week but that was against a quality SEC program as Georgia nipped Notre Dame. That has the Fighting Irish fighting mad for this one and the Eagles defense hasn't faced anything close to the offensive weapons that Notre Dame brings to this one. Keep in mind, Boston College has faced Northern Illinois and Wake Forest thus far. Now they take on a very dangerous offense this afternoon. Also, Notre Dame is poised to respond huge after the tight loss last week. They have a tough game at Michigan State next week which means this game is a must win for them. Though they only beat Boston College by 3 the last time they faced them (in 2015) that outcome was impacted by turnovers as the Irish outgained the Eagles by 145 yards in that game. Look for the Fighting Irish to improve to 21-12 ATS in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points while Boston College drops to 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games and loses for the 8th straight time (ATS too!) as a home dog! 8* NOTRE DAME |
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09-15-17 | UMass v. Temple -15 | 21-29 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Philly's Finest Friday - Rickenbach NCAAF 8* Temple Owls (-) vs UMass Minutemen @ 7 ET - The Owls certainly have not impressed thus far as they were blown out by Notre Dame and then blew a 13 point lead against Villanova last week before eking out a 3 point win. Temple gave up a lot of yardage in the loss to Notre Dame and then also gave up a lot of passing yardage versus the Wildcats. The secondary of the Owls was supposed to be their strength this season. That said, those guys are playing with a chip on their shoulder here and have something to prove. They are hell-bent on shutting down UMass and the good news is that the Owls will benefit from taking on a Minutemen team that scored just 7 points against an FCS team, Old Dominion, last week. Massachusetts is now 9-42 since the start of the 2013 season as they're already 0-3 this season. Though each of their 3 games this season has been decided by 10 points or less, that does not mean they'll be able to compete with Temple here. The Owls barely got by UMass when these teams met 2 seasons ago but the Minutemen have regressed since then and the Temple talent level (even though down from last year) is still vastly superior to that of UMass. The Minutemen gave up 8 sacks in last week's game! Even though Massachusetts has revenge here, they actually entered this season on a 1-8 ATS run when playing with revenge. Also, the Owls entered this season on a 13-0 ATS run when facing an opponent playing with revenge. Additionally, Temple is 6-0 ATS when facing a team off of back to back straight-up losses and the Owls are on an overall 11-3 ATS run in home games. 8* TEMPLE |
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09-15-17 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton +5 | 27-19 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Football Friday - Rickenbach CFL 8* Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7 ET - Not only has Hamilton won two straight games, Saskatchewan QB Kevin Glenn has a hand injury. If he plays he will not be 100%. Also, back-up QB Brandon Bridge has seen limited action in his CFL career. The Tiger-Cats defense has impressed and now that their 8-game losing streak that began the season is becoming more and more of a memory, their roll could very likely continue here with a 3rd straight win. Certainly there is value with the home dog points. The Ti-Cats are hosting a Roughriders team that is only 1-4 in road games this season. Hamilton also plays this game with revenge as they did lose at Saskatchewan earlier this season. Prior to that loss the Tiger-Cats had won 3 of the last 4 meetings with the lone loss coming by just 2 points. Saskatchewan is on a 1-5 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Tiger-Cats are on a 7-3 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 8* HAMILTON |
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09-14-17 | Reds v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Run Line -1.5 runs (-115) vs Cincinnati Reds @ 1:45 ET - The Cardinals got embarrassed 6-0 yesterday at home but had previously won 10 of their 12 prior games. Also, the average margin of victory in those 10 wins was 4 runs! 9 of the 10 W's came by at least 2 runs and that is why I am totally comfortable in laying the 1.5 runs here in a game the Cards should win easily as they have a decided pitching edge with Luke Weaver over Amir Garrett. The Cardinals right-hander is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA in his 6 starts. The Reds left-hander is 3-7 with a 7.39 ERA in his 13 starts this season. Of the Reds last 8 losses, all have come by 2 runs or more and will Cincy lose here? Well, they're 2-10 this season as a road dog of +175 to +250 so I would say a loss is quite likely! As for the Cardinals, they are 11-5 this season as a home fave of -175 to -250. Also, the Cards are 4-1 this season when off of a shutout loss. They'll respond HUGE here and I am happy to lay the -1.5 runs and look for a blowout win here. 10* ST LOUIS CARDINALS Run Line |
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09-13-17 | Braves v. Nationals -1.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 8* Washington Nationals Run Line -1.5 runs (-140) vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - Even on the run line there is a bit of a price to lay here but it should prove to be well worth it. After getting thoroughly embarrassed 8-0 yesterday, Washington bounces back in a big way on Wednesday! The Nationals have a huge pitching edge here with veteran Max Scherzer over rookie Luiz Gohara. The Nats Scherzer has been simply fantastic this season and is 11-1 in his night games this year. Scherzer has made 27 starts this season and he has held opponents to a minuscule .175 batting average. The Braves Gohara struggled with command in his MLB debut but, also, when he did find the plate he was hit hard. The southpaw had never pitched above the Single A level of the minors until the 2017 season so, keep in mind, this is a big jump for Gohara. Now he faces one of the top hitting teams in the majors and he faces them off of an 8-0 beatdown yesterday. In other words, this is unlikely to go well for him! 8* WASHINGTON Run Line -1.5 runs |
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09-12-17 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 8* Tampa Bay Rays Run Line +1.5 runs (-120) vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - The Rays Blake Snell is off of a tough start but previously had allowed just 2 earned runs in 20 and 2/3 innings spanning his 3 prior starts. Also, he has a stellar 2.89 ERA in his 6 starts versus the Yankees in his career. The Yanks Sonny Gray has given up 25 hits in his last 17 and 1/3 innings versus the Rays. Gray has allowed 14 runs (11 earned) in those 3 starts and the Rays should be in this one all the way. That is why I am grabbing the run line in this one. Although we could have Tampa at +130 on the money line I feel there is great value to only have to lay about -120 and yet have the Rays at +1.5 runs. In Gray's last 8 starts only 2 have resulted in a victory by more than 1 run. In Snell's last 8 starts only 2 have resulted in a loss by more than 2 runs. 8* TAMPA BAY RAYS run line +1.5 runs |
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09-10-17 | Giants +4 v. Cowboys | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach Sunday NFL 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - Are you ready for the sophomore slump? Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott had great rookie campaigns for the Cowboys last season but Dallas finished the season on a 1-6 ATS run (including post-season loss versus Green Bay) and that is a sign of things to come. Even though Elliott is playing in this game his suspension issues have been a major distraction for Dallas. Also, the offensive line did lose two starters from last season's team and that could certainly be an issue here. The Cowboys were also very poor against the pass last season and the Giants are chomping at the bit to turn Eli Manning and Company loose in this one after a disappointing performance for the Giants offense in coach Ben McAdoo's first year at the helm. I like the offseason moves the Giants made to strengthen the offense. Also, the G-men have had the Cowboys number as they are on a 5-0 ATS run in games versus Dallas. That includes 3 straight SU wins and the most recent loss came by just a single point at Dallas in the season opener of the 2015 season. The Cowboys are off of a "miracle season" where everything seemed to fall in place for them in the regular season but lets not forget they were 4-12 in 2015. This is still a quality Cowboys team but they haven't had back to back playoff seasons in many, many years and New York has been a nemesis for them. In road games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points, the Giants are on a 28-16 ATS run. In games played on turf the past two seasons, Dallas is 6-15 ATS! More struggles for them at the betting window in this one! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS |
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09-10-17 | Orioles v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Run Line Game of the Month - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Run Line -1.5 runs -110 vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:05 ET - The Indians are on an insane run and have won 17 in a row. Of course I am never comfortable laying big money lines and they are nearly a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line in this one. However, on the run line we get them at basically a pick'em price by simply laying the 1.5 runs. Is that a good value? You bet (literally!) because the Indians 17 game winning streak has featured 15 of the 17 wins coming by 2 runs or more! As for Baltimore, each of their last 7 losses have come by 2 runs or more. The Orioles send Jeremy Hellickson to the mound and he has allowed 12 runs (10 earned) in just 7 innings of work spanning his last two starts. As for the Indians, they'll have Trevor Bauer on the mound and he is 8-3 at home this season. Also, he enters this start with a spectacular 2.22 ERA in his last 8 starts! Not only should the Indians make it 18 in a row here, the run line success rate is likely to reach 16-2 (89%) in this streak with another win by 2 runs or more. 10* Top Play CLEVELAND INDIANS Run Line -1.5 runs |
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09-09-17 | Calgary v. Edmonton +6 | Top | 25-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Saturday CFL 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 9 ET - The Stampeders blasted the Eskimos last week but that game was at Calgary and now this provincial battle shifts northward to Edmonton. The fact is that the Eskimos outgained the Stampeders last week but were done in by turnovers. I expect Edmonton to make the most of this opportunity for quick revenge. While they may not get the outright win the points are certainly generous and this spread has been inflated because of last week's results. Yes, Edmonton has lost 3 straight games after a 7-0 start to the season but this is still an Eskimos team that is 4-1 at home this season. The Stampeders have won just 3 of their 5 road games this season and here they're being asked to win by a sizable margin. Calgary is 7-3 ATS on the season while Edmonton is only 3-7 ATS. Those ATS records have a way of evening out as a season goes on as over-adjustments are made. I feel that will be the case here and note that the home team has won 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams and the only 2 losses both came by 6 points or less. 10* EDMONTON |
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09-09-17 | Stanford v. USC -5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - NCAAF Game #388: Rickenbach Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (-) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 8:30 ET - The Trojans seek revenge for their loss by 17 points at Stanford last season. Keep in mind, star QB Darnold did not play in that game. Although USC struggled some in their eventual 18 point win versus Western Michigan last week, the Broncos are a quality football program and Southern Cal also could not be blamed if they were perhaps peeking ahead to this big Pac-12 battle. As for Stanford, they had a bye week after blasting Rice in Australia two weeks ago. As impressive as that win may seem, the Owls are dreadful and the Cardinal (after an early season bye) may struggle to match the Trojans intensity here as USC benefits from having just played last week (maintaining early season rhythm) and from facing a higher quality opponent. Stanford has held the upper hand in this series in recent years but the odds makers certainly are not stupid. The first numbers that were posted on this game were up near 10. It quickly moved down before the big money could be bet put the point is I side with the odds makers here and love the value of having a team that should win by double digits and yet they're laying less than a TD. Note that the Trojans are on a long-term 24-12 ATS run as a home favorite. In all home games the past 3 seasons, Southern Cal is 9-5 ATS. The Cardinal lost some key personnel from last year's team and that certainly was not an issue against a team like Rice but it will be an issue here against the revenge-minded Trojans. Southern Cal has won 10 straight games and I look for another one here as they cover the small number along the way. 10* USC |
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09-09-17 | Western Michigan +7.5 v. Michigan State | 14-28 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - NCAAF Game #309 - Rickenbach Saturday 8* Western Michigan Broncos (+) @ Michigan State Spartans @ 3:30 ET - The Broncos gave a valiant effort against a very strong Trojans team at USC last Saturday. Though Western Michigan fell short on the scoreboard, they showed that this solid MAC program isn't going to lay down for anyone even though they lost head coach PJ Fleck. The fact is that they're in very good hands with Tim Lester at the helm. At the same time, the fact is that the Spartans are in for more struggles this season. Remember they fell to 3-9 last season and now Michigan State returns very few starters this season. The fact that Sparty blasted a weak Bowling Green team (also from MAC but nowhere near the current level of Western Michigan program) is helping to give us line value here. Keep in mind the Spartans also have a bye on deck and then face Notre Dame and then start their Big Ten schedule. In other words, Michigan State could get caught looking ahead here while Western Michigan certainly is not going to be looking ahead to anything. They want this game against the "big boys" from in-state. Substantial ATS support here too! The Broncos are on a 6-0 ATS run as non-conference dogs of more than 3 points. Also, Western Michigan has covered 6 of their last 7 (86%) as a dog playing with revenge. The Broncos lost to Michigan State at home to open their 2015 season - that was when Spartans were much stronger and Western Michigan had not quite yet emerged. As for Michigan State, they are on a 2-11 ATS run when they are at home and off of a non-conference game. Also, the Spartans have covered just 1 of 9 (11%) as a non-conference favorite of less than 28 points. That system fits here as well! 8* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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09-08-17 | Montreal v. BC -7.5 | Top | 18-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
Game of the Week Friday - Rickenbach CFL 10* Top Play BC Lions (-) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 10 PM ET - Travis Lulay gets the start at QB for the BC Lions and they are coming off of their bye week. He'll replace Jonathan Jennings due to the ineffectiveness of the young starter. Note that the veteran Lulay did very well filling in for Jennings earlier this season and certainly the Lions are in need of a boost now after some recent struggles. That said, the bye week could not have come at a more perfect time for BC and I look for the Lions to come roaring out of the gate in this one! The Lions are 3-1 against East Division teams this season while Montreal is only 3-7 on the entire season! The Als already lost to BC earlier this season back east and facing an angry Lions team out west won't do any favors for the Alouettes here. The Lions have won each of the last 4 meetings between these clubs and the average margin has been 12 points. BC is on a 13-7 ATS run against the East Division and also is 6-1 ATS when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive SU losses. Montreal got hammered in a divisional loss last week and the Alouettes are on a 6-14 ATS run when off of a divisional game. 10* BC LIONS |
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09-08-17 | Phillies v. Nationals -1.5 | 10-11 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
8* WASHINGTON Run Line -1.5 runs - The Phillies Jake Thompson is off of a surprisingly strong start at Miami. However, in his two prior starts at the MLB level he allowed a combined 5 homers. Also, in the minors this season at AAA Lehigh Valley he went 5-14 with a 5.25 ERA. In other words, one shouldn't over-react to one good start and now he faces the ace of the Nationals as Max Scherzer gets the call for Washington here. The right-hander is 8-1 with a 2.04 ERA in his 13 career starts versus the Phillies. Scherzer is also 13-5 with a 2.18 ERA this season and has piled up strikeouts at home where the Nats have gone 9-3 in his 12 starts. Of course I am not laying the huge price on the money line but I am very comfortable being in the -135 range by taking the Nationals at -1.5 runs on the run line. Though Washington only won by a single run last night, this one has blowout written all over it. The average margin of victory in the Nationals last 10 wins is 3.9 runs. The Phillies last 7 losses have come by an average margin of 5 runs. Keep in mind Philadelphia is only 25-50 on the road this season and the Nationals do have some familiarity with Jake Thompson and that's bad news for him with the way 2017 has gone for him at the MLB and minor league levels. |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots -9 | 42-27 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Thursday NFL 8* New England Patriots (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:30 ET - Though I expect a "correction" on the Patriots this season after their insane ATS success last season and then improbable comeback win in the Super Bowl, the "correction" does not begin here. That's because, even though they lost WR Julian Edelman for the season with an injury suffered in preseason action, their offense is still light years ahead of the Chiefs. In fact, their defense is too. The key to the Chiefs success last season was being +18 in turnovers on the year. If you look closely at Kansas City's numbers, they ranked well in scoring offense and scoring defense last season but they were very fortunate with turnovers. The fact is that their defense ranked 24th as they allowed 369 yards per game and their offense only ranked 20th with just 343 yards per game. By comparison, the Patriots ranked at or near the top of the league in all 4 of those categories - yards and points both offense and defense. The fact is that the Chiefs offense is a concern that they did little to address in the off-season. This is nothing against QB Alex Smith but more so it is about the weapons (or lack thereof) that surround him. Also, the KC defensive line lost some key starters from last year's unit. Add in the fact that the Patriots unfurl their Championship banner tonight, QB Tom Brady is eager to make up for missing the first 4 games last season, and that the Patriots are seeking revenge for the last regular season meeting between the clubs. Yes, the Pats got some revenge with a playoff win following the 2015 season but they were embarrassed on national TV in regular season action at Kansas City in the 2014 season. That was Bill Belichick vs Andy Reid as well. Who do you think comes out on top this time? This one gets UGLY for the Chiefs. 8* NEW ENGLAND |
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09-05-17 | Nationals -1.5 v. Marlins | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 8* Washington Nationals Run Line (-1.5) @ Miami Marlins @ 7:10 ET - Stephen Strasburg gets the start for the Nationals and the right-hander is in fantastic current form with just 3 earned runs allowed in his last 30 innings of work. As strong as Strasburg has been for the Nationals I do not like to lay big prices on the money line. That said, my play here is on the run line and I don't mind laying the 1.5 runs with the Nationals last 10 wins with Strasburg on the mound coming by a margin of 3.4 runs per victory. The Marlins have lost 7 of their last 8 games and the 7 defeats have come by an average margin of 4 runs per loss. Miami will have Odrisamer Despaigne on the mound and the right-hander has given up 12 runs (7 earned) in the less than 15 innings of work spanning his 3 starts this season. He also had as many walks as strikeouts in those starts and, of course, that's never a good sign for a starting pitcher. 8* WASHINGTON on the run line |
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09-04-17 | Toronto v. Hamilton +5 | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Monday CFL 8* Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) vs Toronto Argonauts @ 6:30 ET - The Tiger-Cats are 0-8 on the season but they're off of a bye week and note that 6 of their first 8 games this season have come against tough West Division foes. Certainly Hamilton is not without issues...any 0-8 team has issues! But, the point is that this is the perfect spot to back them. They are at home, a sizable dog, and playing with revenge against a struggling division rival. Toronto has lost 4 of its last 5 games and those 4 defeats came by a combined score of 123 to 67. Hamilton has won and covered each of the last four times they've hosted the Argonauts. Also, Toronto is just 1-4 (both SU and ATS) on the road this season. In games played in weeks 10 through 15 the Argos are on a 2-9 run both SU and ATS! The Ti-Cats are 7-3 ATS (including 2-0 this season) as an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Look for the Tiger-Cats to improve to 4-0 (both SU and ATS) in Monday games with an outright upset here BUT my advice is to grab the points in case they do fall just short. 8* HAMILTON |
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09-03-17 | Texas A&M v. UCLA -3.5 | 44-45 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Sunday NCAAF 8* UCLA Bruins (-) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 7:30 ET - The Bruins have revenge on their minds in this one and that includes QB Josh Rosen. The UCLA quarterback got hurt and missed the rest of the season after early October but he faced the Aggies a year ago to the day and he threw 3 picks in that game. He still was able to rally the Bruins back and force overtime but UCLA then lost in OT. The noteworthy aspect of the 3 picks in that game is that Rosen threw a TOTAL of only 2 picks in the other 5 games he played last season. Indeed Rosen has revenge on his mind here and I expect him to lead the way to a convincing victory over an Aggies team that lost a lot of starters from last season and is also now having to test an inexperienced QB on the road against a tough Bruins defense. Even though Texas A & M head coach Sumlin has a history of strong starts with plenty of wins (and covers) in recent seasons in August and September games, I am happy to go contrarian here and lay the points with the revenge-minded Bruins whom are on a rough 3-10 ATS run in home games. This is not just "any" home game for UCLA! Also, note that the Bruins are on a long-term ATS run against SEC opponents. 8* UCLA |
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09-03-17 | Winnipeg +3 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Thursday CFL 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 4 ET - Saskatchewan certainly has improved this season but last week they took advantage of an Edmonton team that was looking ahead to a big showdown with Calgary this week. The result of the Roughriders big win over the Eskimos is helping to give us some line value here as we can get a solid Blue Bombers team at a full +3 in this one. Keep in mind, a lot of points are expected in this one (O/U posted at 61) and Winnipeg is on an 11-1 ATS run in road games with a posted total of 52 points or more! The Blue Bombers are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in road games this season! As for Saskatchewan, they are a dismal 3-10 ATS in games where they are a favorite. Grab the underdog value here! 10* WINNIPEG |
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09-02-17 | Vanderbilt -3 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
TV Top Game - Rickenbach Saturday NCAAF Game #203 - 10* Top Play Vanderbilt Commodores (-) @ Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 8 ET - Sure Middle Tennessee State is seeking revenge but this line drop from an opener of Vanderbilt -6 to now just a 3 point favorite as of gameday morning is a huge value for the Commodores. Vandy has come a long way in recent seasons and returns a solid starting group. This is still a case of an SEC team versus a CUSA team and the Commodores are also no longer the SEC's doormat! Yes the Blue Raiders threw the ball very well versus Vandy last season but the Commodores improvement on defense came as the season went on. They allowed an average of only 20.8 points per game in their final 8 regulars season games. The MTSU defense is a concern here. Not only are you talking about Conference USA talent but also the Blue Raiders are replacing their entire defensive line. Keep in mind that is part of the same front seven that Vandy ran all over for 234 rushing yards per game in the last two meetings. The Commodores are on a 7-1-1 ATS run against Conference USA opponents. Also, Middle Tennessee State is a long-term 0-4 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points and now this line is all the way down to a +3 and giving the Blue Raiders even less value here. Look for the road fave to roll again. 10* VANDERBILT |
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09-02-17 | Michigan v. Florida +6 | 33-17 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
ABC Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach Saturday NCAAF Game #202 - 8* Florida Gators (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 3:30 ET - The big story here is all the suspensions for Florida. The key is that this has opened up even greater line value for the Gators. Keep in mind, Michigan comes into this season with only 5 returning starters. The point is that the Gators losing some players for this game just means that the rosters are a little more evened out! Florida is still loaded with talent and this is an even match-up even with the suspensions. The Gators football program also certainly hasn't forgotten the 41-7 beatdown they were handed on New Years Day 2016. Time for a little payback here and the Florida suspensions made a lot of headline but if you look at which of those players were starters (not many) and the other depth the Gators have at those spots, you will find those suspensions are not as impacting as you would think. Florida's New Years Day loss is still etched in their memories but that is one of just 6 times the Gators have failed to cover in their last 21 neutral site games. Also, the Wolverines wrapped up last season covering just 1 of the last 6 games in which they were a favorite! The Gators are on a 6-1 ATS run in neutral site games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. Michigan is 0-4 ATS the last 4 times they've been a neutral field favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. 8* FLORIDA |
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09-02-17 | California +13 v. North Carolina | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NCAAF Saturday Game #177 - 8* California Golden Bears (+) @ North Carolina Tar Heels @ 12:20 ET - With both teams going through significant changes from last season, I am happy to back the big dog in this match-up. The Tar Heels have a huge game on deck with conference rival Louisville while the Golden Bears have only Weber State on deck. Also, California is on a fantastic 7-0 ATS as a non-conference road dog of more than 3 points. Look for defensive-minded head coach Justin Wilcox to have the Golden Bears playing a completely different brand of football early this season compared to the all offense, no defense style of his predecessor Sonny Dykes. While both teams are undergoing changes at the QB position, Cal returned more starting firepower at the surrounding skill positions and I expect this to be a difference-maker Saturday as well. Also really like the coordinator hires that were made for the Golden Bears in support of Wilcox. He and his OC and DC will have the troops ready to go in this one and the points are generous here! The Bears are on a 5-2 SU and ATS run in September games and also are a long-term 10-3 ATS in games where they are a road dog in a range of 10.5 to 14 points. 8* CALIFORNIA |
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09-01-17 | Colorado State v. Colorado -3.5 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Friday NCAAF 8* Colorado Buffaloes (-) vs Colorado State Rams @ 8 ET - The Rams absolutely crushed Oregon State last week. Or wait...did they really? Yes I know the final scored shows a 59-27 shellacking in favor of Colorado State. However, the Beavers were only outgained by 30 yards through the air and 39 yards on the ground. For the game Oregon State actually gained over 450 yards of offense but the difference in the game was 5 Beavers turnovers. Certainly not taking anything away from what the Rams did in that game but the fact is that there has now been an over-reaction in the betting markets. Colorado State opened up as an 8.5 point dog here and now the line is just 3.5 as of gameday morning. Given me the small favorite in this one as we take advantage of the huge value offered by this line move. Yes it is a revenge spot for the Rams but Colorado is now a PAC-12 team that annually plays a much tougher schedule than Colorado State does. Also, the Buffaloes have held the upper hand in this series recently with the Rams getting the cash only 3 times in the last 10 meetings! Certainly Colorado lost key personnel from last year's defense but there was certainly some talent waiting in the wings too. The Rams are 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS the past two seasons in games played on a neutral field. Also, Colorado State is 5-12 SU (and 6-10-1 ATS) long-term in games played against PAC-12 foes while the Buffaloes are 14-9 SU against Mountain West Conference opponents. Additionally as a neutral site favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, the Buffs are 7-3 SU (and 7-3 ATS) as all 7 wins have covered. I expect the same result here. 8* COLORADO |
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08-31-17 | Seahawks v. Raiders +1.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 38 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFLX 10* Top Play Oakland Raiders (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 10 PM ET - Seattle is 3-0, 100% perfect this preseason campaign. However, going 4-0 is never easy - it does not happen often. Additionally, going 0-4 is not that likely either and the Raiders enter this one 0-3. The fact is that this is a perfect set up. The very first number on this game that came out was Oakland -2.5 and they then have moved to has high as a +2.5 in some books as of early Tuesday. The line has settled in around 1 or 1.5 since then (as of later Tuesday) but the fact remains this is a significant move toward the Seahawks. I am not surprised given the long-term numbers on Seattle that there has been such a significant move here. But the fact remains this is opening up line value on an Oakland team that is not without some solid depth. Remember that this team did go 12-4 and win their division last season. Their playoff fortunes changed with the loss of their star QB to injury and that certainly has this Oakland team hungry heading into the new year. Even though it's only preseason, I just don't see the Raiders going 0-4 and note that the #2 QB for Seattle, Trevone Boykin threw 7 passes in last week's game with the only "completion" being an interception for his opponent! The fact is that the Seahawks are getting a lot of respect here considering that even though they've beaten Oakland the past few preseasons in the finale, the Raiders have actually held the edge in first downs in each match-up. These teams are not that far apart in terms of talent level and depth and I like the hungrier team at home getting points! Remember even just getting 1.5 points is significant because in preseason teams play for the win as they don't want to tie and go to OT. So if Oakland is ahead by 7 and Seattle scores a TD late they're likely to be going for 2 and a 1-point win. Speaking of tight wins, 5 of the Seahawks 8 preseason games the past 2 seasons were decided by a COMBINED 7 points. 0-4 preseasons for the Raiders are rare and I am grabbing the value with the hungry home dog. Back-up QBs for Oakland get revenge over Seattle's back-up signal-callers for this one after losing the Week 4 preseason match-up last year. 10* OAKLAND |
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08-31-17 | UL-Monroe +26 v. Memphis | 29-37 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Thursday NCAAF 8* UL-Monroe Warhawks (+) @ Memphis Tigers @ 9 ET - While it may seem "scary" to back a 4-8 team from the Sun Belt Conference against an American Athletic Conference team that has gone bowling each of the last 3 seasons, the fact is there is tremendous value here with UL-Monroe. Traditionally, one of the big neutralizers when a game has the potential to be a mismatch is the weather. That said, I expect that to be fully in play here as the epic storm that is Harvey is now meandering through the southeastern part of the country after ravaging Texas with horrific weather. With very significant rainfall and windy conditions expect throughout this game, it will be tough for Memphis to get a huge margin of victory. Also, the Warhawks are in their 2nd year under head coach Matt Viator and they did show improvement under him last season. As for Memphis, their win total dropped again last season as the Tigers have gone from 10 to 9 to 8 wins successively the last 3 seasons. Also, while UL-Monroe has another non-winnable non-conference game on deck (at Florida State), the Tigers do have their conference opener on deck as they play Central Florida next week. With Memphis in a lookahead spot and just trying to survive the elements tonight, I feel there is great line value with the big underdog. Also the Warhawks are on a 4-2 ATS run as a road dog of 21.5 or more points. Look for Memphis to drop to 1-3 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. 8* UL-MONROE |
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08-30-17 | White Sox v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Game of the Month Run Line - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Run Line -1.5 runs vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - The Twins got the 6-4 win yesterday and Minnesota is now 9-4 in their last 13 games with all 9 wins coming by a margin of 2 runs or more. That said, though Minny on the money line is a prohibitive favorite here, there is good value with the Twins on the run line laying the 1.5 runs while also laying a very small price. The fact that the White Sox Derek Holland bested the Twins Jose Berrios in last week's match-up in Chicago simply adds even more value here. Both Holland and Berrios allowed 7 baserunners apiece in that start but Holland only struck out 5 in 6 innings while Berrios struck out 9 in just 5 and 1/3 innings. Look for payback here as Berrios is 7-1 with a 2.87 ERA in his home starts this season. Conversely, Holland is 3-6 with a 7.82 ERA in his road starts this season. Also, Berrios still has a solid 2.95 ERA in his 3 starts versus the ChiSox in his career while Holland, prior to last week's start, allowed 14 runs (10 earned) in less than 8 innings of work spanning his two previous starts versus the Twins. Each of the White Sox last 5 wins have come by 2 runs or more. The ChiSox were on a 3-15 run in Holland's starts before he got a rare win last week. Berrios has won 6 straight home starts and only 1 victory came by less than 2 runs. That said, grab the value with the Twins on the run line in this one as they stay hot at the plate while the ChiSox (averaging 7.2 hits per game their last 9 games) see their struggles resume this evening. 10* MINNESOTA -1.5 runs |
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08-28-17 | Marlins +1.5 v. Nationals | 2-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Monday MLB 8* Miami Marlins Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - The Nats Max Scherzer is certainly a fantastic pitcher. However, the veteran right-hander is coming off of the disabled list and may not be 100% here. Also, the Marlins have seen plenty of him this season. As for Miami starter Jose Urena, he is a phenomenal 8-0 on the road this season! Also, he shut down the Nationals in his only start against them in late July. Urena was a tough-luck loser when he took the 1-run loss versus Washington in that start. Speaking of 1-run losses, the Marlins are 9-1 in Urena's road starts this season and the lone loss came by a single run. That means that at +1.5 runs on the road this season in Urena's starts the Marlins are a perfect 10-0. That said, one has to like the line value here of having Miami at +1.5 in this game and not having to lay any juice as they go for 11-0 in this situation. The fact Scherzer may not be his dominant self here means there is even more value in this spot. Both of Washington's games yesterday (they had a double header) were one run games. The Nationals split the double-header and though they are 7-5 their last 12 games, 4 of the 7 wins have come by just a single run. That means that the Nats, on the run line at -1.5 runs, are only 3-9 their last 12 games. Grab the value here! 8* MIAMI on the run line |
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08-27-17 | 49ers +5 v. Vikings | Top | 31-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49'ers (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8 ET - Both teams are 1-1 but San Francisco got blasted last week, embarrassed at home, thanks to 5 turnovers! The 49'ers had 4 fumbles and threw 1 interception versus the Broncos. Suffice to say, the Niners are fired up about responding this week. The Vikings are off of a road loss at Seattle. In regular season action the Vikes would be the play here of course. But this isn't the regular season and motivation is a little tougher to come by. Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer does have a good track record in preseason but the Vikes certainly haven't impressed this season. They've been substantially outgained in each of their first two games of this preseason. Even though Minnesota went 4-0 in last year's preseason, 2 of the wins came by 2 points or less. The Niners, with a new head coach, are looking for some positives after a dreadful season last year. With that said, look for a little extra hunger from San Francisco to be a difference maker here as last week's sloppy home loss has the 49'ers fired up. With the move up into the 5 and 5.5 point range on this one, there is a lot of value with the big road dog. 10* SAN FRANCISCO Sunday evening |
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08-26-17 | Hawaii +3 v. UMass | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NCAAF Saturday 8* Hawaii Warriors (+) @ Massachusetts Minutemen @ 6 ET - Many are looking at Massachusetts in this one since they have revenge from losing last year's season finale at Hawaii. However, out of all 130 FBS schools, the Minutemen very well may be the worst team in the nation. That said, I certainly see value in fading them here with a Hawaii team that made significant strides last season and got back to a bowl game. UMass is laying a full field goal here even though they are just 9-39 SU the last 4 seasons. Also note that the Minutemen are only 1-8 ATS when playing with revenge! The fact is that revenge certainly has a tendency to be "over-played" and this is particularly true when the team seeking revenge is a very poor team. The Warriors responded well under head coach Nick Rolovich last season and the fact they opened the season at Australia plus had to play Michigan at The Big House plus went to (and won!) a bowl game has this Hawaii team well prepared for this long road trip to open up the new season. Hawaii has tremendous talent on offense and the Minutemen don't have the firepower to keep up. The Warriors are a long-term 5-1 ATS in August games while UMass is 0-3 ATS in August games. Hawaii also is 3-1 ATS the past 2 seasons in road games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. The Minutemen are getting attention here in the revenge spot but the value is with the road dog. 8* HAWAII |
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08-25-17 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton -5.5 | Top | 54-31 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach Friday CFL 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (-) vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 9:30 ET - On the one hand, the Roughriders have an edge here since they are off of their bye week. Also, Saskatchewan blasted BC prior to their bye week but the thing is they were catching the Lions at the perfect time to get the big win. BC was clearly looking ahead to their showdown with Calgary. Even though the Eskimos also now have Calgary on deck, there is no doubt Edmonton is fully focused here as they lost at Winnipeg just last week and the Blue Bombers are nipping at their heels at the top of the West Division. That defeat last week was the first of the season for the Eskimos. That is not the only thing that has Edmonton fired up either as they also are seeking revenge here for a rare loss to Saskatchewan when these teams last met (late last season). The Roughriders are 0-3 on the road this season and just 3-18 away from home the last 3 seasons. There are some dismal ATS numbers for Saskatchewan as well as they are on an 8-15 ATS run in divisional games. As for the Eskimos, they are 4-0 at home this season and, in terms of ATS numbers, they are 4-2 ATS when off of a loss in divisional action and they are also 6-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* EDMONTON |
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08-25-17 | Chiefs +3 v. Seahawks | 13-26 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
CBS Network Smash - Rickenbach Friday NFLX 8* Kansas City Chiefs (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8 ET - The points should prove to be quite valuable here. While the Seahawks are 2-0 (both SU and ATS) and the Chiefs are only 1-1 (both SU and ATS), it is noteworthy that the Chiefs have only failed to cover 1 game in each of the last 2 preseasons while Seattle did fail to cover a home game in each of the last 2 preseasons. In other words, this looks like the perfect spot (literally!) for the Seahawks to get their first blemish of this preseason. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll has great long term numbers in preseason but the Seahawks, in the prior 2 preseasons, only had 1 win by more than 2 points in each preseason. In other words, there is a lot of value in having the points and fading Seattle. As for KC, the past 2 preseasons they went a combined 6-2 ATS and the only two SU losses they had each came by a single point. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid will have his troops ready to go here in the "dress rehearsal" game for the regular season and I like the value with the points being offered here. 8* KANSAS CITY |
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08-24-17 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +1 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFL 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7:30 ET - The Blue Bombers are off of a huge win last week as they knocked off the previously unbeaten Eskimos. Following that big win versus Edmonton, look for Winnipeg to be flat here. That's bad news for Bombers fans because Montreal will be ready to go after an embarrassing 38-6 loss at Toronto where anything that could do wrong did go wrong for the Als. Look for the Alouettes to respond in a big way here. Though their overall season record does not impress, Montreal is a solid 3-1 at home this season. Also, in home games with a posted total of 52 points or more, the Alouettes have a long-term SU mark of 73-26 (74%)! The Blue Bombers, as a road favorite of 3 points or less, have a long-term mark of 2-10 (17%) both SU and ATS! Huge situational edge for the Als here. 10* MONTREAL |
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08-24-17 | Dolphins v. Eagles -3.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
NFL Network Smash - Rickenbach Thursday NFLX 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 7 ET - Even though the Dolphins put up 23 points in week one, their offense did not impress as they only managed 12 first downs for the game. Also 99 of their 312 yards for the game came on a late game long TD pass. Miami struggled again on offense last week as they were blown out 31-7. Certainly the Dolphins would love to bounce back this week but they're in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Eagles won 20-16 last week and are now 5-1 (both SU and ATS) in NFLX games under head coach Doug Pederson. More of the same expected this week in the final "dress rehearsal" game for most of the veterans as next week's games (week 4) will not see many of the veterans playing. This is the week where the games are most like the regular season and the Eagles at home are the play in this one as the Dolphins are still reeling from the injury to QB Ryan Tannehill. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-21-17 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Pirates | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Monday MLB 8* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 runs @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - The Pirates got the win last night and surprisingly the bullpen actually hung on for a win. However, they'll prove to be no match for the Dodgers tonight. This is a pitching mismatch and Pittsburgh is catching the Dodgers at the wrong time as Los Angeles is off of a loss yesterday that ended their 6-game winning streak. Of course, as long-time followers know, I don't like to lay big juice so my play here is on the run line. By taking LA at -1.5 runs we don't have to lay any juice to have the superior team and merely ask them to win by 2 runs or more. Note that the Dodgers, since mid-June, are 8-1 when off of a loss and 6 of the 8 wins have come by 2 runs or more. Overall, Los Angeles was on a 12-2 run in their 14 games prior to yesterday's loss. Also, 10 of the 12 wins came by 2 runs or more. The odds are in our favor in terms of any Dodgers win today coming by at least 2 runs. That said, the pitching match-up here certainly should lead to a win. Alex Wood is a phenomenal 13-1 with a 2.41 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP on the season and showing no signs of slowing down. The Dodgers southpaw will be opposed by Gerrit Cole and the Pirates right-hander has a mediocre 4.50 ERA in his last 3 starts. Also, Wood has a 2.50 ERA in his 6 starts versus Pittsburgh in his career while Cole has a 5.22 ERA in his 5 starts versus LA in his career. 8* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 runs early Monday evening. |
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08-20-17 | Saints +3.5 v. Chargers | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Sunday NFLX 8* New Orleans Saints (+) @ Los Angeles Chargers @ 8 ET - Everyone is looking to the Chargers this week after they got blasted 48-14 at home versus Seattle last week. Los Angeles has moved from a 2.5 point favorite to a 3.5 point choice as of Saturday evening. I will gladly fade the line move here and grab the Saints. The Chargers had no reason to be flat last week against the Seahawks. That said, even though LA hung around early in that game all of the issues with the 2nd and 3rd stringers getting completely manhandled is a concern for this week's action. Even though starters play more in Week 2, these preseason games are often decided by the back-ups and, in this case, I certainly like much more from what I saw from the Saints win Week 1. While the Chargers were outscored 38-3 in the final 3 quarters versus the Hawks last week, New Orleans did hold a 14-7 fourth quarter lead at Cleveland before giving up the final 13 points at Cleveland. The fact that the Saints didn't "finish" last week versus the Browns is going to lead to a much stronger effort this week in the latter stages. Also New Orleans has the rest edge here as they have had 3 extra days (compared to the Chargers) coming into this one. The Saints have struggled in recent preseasons and I am well aware of that AS IS the football team. After losing against the beleaguered Browns (preseason or not!) the Saints will be ready to go here after a poor finish at Cleveland. The concern for the Chargers is they allowed well over 400 yards last week. The Saints QBs combined to complete 25 of 36 last week with no picks while the Chargers QBs combined for just 15 of 31 with two interceptions versus Seattle. A lot of line value here with the dog as the Chargers have only 2 wins by more than 3 points in their last 9 preseason games and Week 1 shows there is still a lot that this LA team has to work on! 8* NEW ORLEANS SAINTS |
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08-19-17 | Montreal v. Toronto -1.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach Saturday CFL 8* Toronto Argonauts (-) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 4 ET - The Argos had nearly equal yardage with the Als at Montreal last week but lost 21-9 on the scoreboard. Toronto held a huge edge in the ground game last week and could get a big boost with the return of Ricky Ray at QB this week. Even though the Alouettes have held the upper hand in this series of late, the fact is that last week was just the 3rd time this season that Montreal has scored more than 20 points in a game. Toronto's loss to the Als last week was their first defeat in divisional action this season. Look for them to bounce back this week and there is great line value with this line available as low as a -1.5 at the time of this posting. Montreal is 1-4 ATS (and 0-5 SU) when off of a win over a division rival the past two seasons and I don't see them winning back to back games over the hungry Argonauts here. 8* TORONTO minus the short number Saturday afternoon. |
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08-18-17 | Calgary -4 v. BC | Top | 21-17 | Push | 0 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach Friday CFL 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) @ BC Lions @ 10:30 ET - Many are likely to back BC here as they are at home and have revenge from getting blasted out of the postseason 42-15 by Calgary in November. However, the Lions are loaded with issues here. Not only did they just play on the road Saturday (making this a short rest situation), BC also has issues at QB. Jonathan Jennings returned last week but he was simply awful at Saskatchewan and he will be facing a much tougher D this week. Adding to the disadvantage for the Lions here is the fact that the Stampeders have extra rest since they are off of their by week. Also, Calgary has been firing on all cylinders with a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS run heading into this one while the Lions have lost 2 of 3 SU and 3 of 4 ATS as they prepare for the Stampeders here. Calgary has covered 4 of the last 6 meetings and also has dominated to the tune of an 8-1 SU record in the last 9 meetings. There is simply a lot for BC to overcome here and I don't see that happening. The fact the Stampeders opened up as a 5 point road favorite tells you a lot about this match-up. Look for the better team to comfortably pull away as this game goes on. The Stampeders are 4-0 SU and ATS when off of a bye week and also are on a 7-1 ATS run in road games with a posted total of 52 points or more. Look for them to roll here as the Lions, no matter how motivated, just aren't playing very good football right now and have QB concerns which is a huge factor in any football league but of particular concern in the pass-happy CFL. 10* CALGARY |
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08-18-17 | Vikings +4 v. Seahawks | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
NFL Network Smash - Rickenbach Friday NFLX 8* Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 10 PM ET - The Seahawks won in an absolute blowout Sunday at Los Angeles versus the Chargers. They deserve credit for a big win and certainly they've had good long-term success in preseason under head coach Pete Carroll. However, the Vikings certainly have not been slouches in recent seasons either. With Thursday's win at Buffalo, Minnesota is now on a 12-2 (86%) Run both SU and ATS. That said, I love the line value here with the Vikes as they have an extra 3 days of rest compared to the Seahawks for this one and plus this line has moved up from a 3 to a 4 which has afforded even more value to a road dog team that has enjoyed much success in the preseason. The two ATS losses that Seattle has had the past two years in preseason both came at home and one was a loss by a TD to Minnesota last year. In games between the HOF Game and Week 3 of Preseason action, the Vikings are now on a perfect 8-0 ATS run after their win over the Bills as a road fave last week. We're getting line value here because of the Seahawks huge win last week (and their long-term NFLX success) overshadowing the scheduling edge (and the fact the Vikes have been a preseason juggernaut). Huge underdog value. 8* MINNESOTA |
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08-13-17 | BC v. Saskatchewan +2 | Top | 8-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach Sunday CFL 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) vs BC Lions @ 8 ET - The Roughriders were done in by turnovers in last week's match-up at BC and dug a 30-0 hole. Though the points came late in the game, look for the 15 points scored late in the 4th quarter to build some momentum and confidence for Saskatchewan coming into this game. Also, with the Lions on a long winning streak versus the Riders, it is rather easy for BC to look right past Saskatchewan to a huge game on deck with Calgary. The Stampeders are just ahead of the Lions in the standings while the Roughriders are dead last in the division. As a result, I smell an upset here. Adding to the value with Saskatchewan in this spot is some very powerful history in spots like this. As a home dog of 3 points or less, the Riders are an incredible 19-4 ATS (and SU) their last 23. This is a rare Sunday game (BC's first of the season) and they went 0-4 ATS the past two seasons in Sunday games. Also, the Roughriders have a bye on deck so this home game is HUGE for them and, unlike the Lions, the Riders are not distracted in the least. In fact, they're fully focused on this match-up. Upset alert! 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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08-11-17 | Toronto +7.5 v. Montreal | 9-21 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Friday Night Lights - Rickenbach CFL 8* Toronto Argonauts (+) @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - With the Ricky Ray injury for the Argos, there has been a significant line adjustment made here. Certainly the injury is impacting for Toronto but this is an East Division that is up for grabs and the Argonauts are going to battle hard to maintain the top spot. Toronto is 3-0 this season in divisional action while Montreal has only played one game in the division thusfar and they lost that game. Another key about fading the Alouettes here is they generally don't score well. Prior to scoring 40 points in a loss prior to their bye week last week, the Als had averaged only 20.2 points per game this season! It's difficult to cover a big spread when you're not scoring a lot of points and that certainly could be an issue for Montreal here because the Toronto defense is fired up about bouncing back. The Argonauts have lost two straight games in ugly fashion as they've allowed 39.5 points per game in the two defeats. Prior to those ugly losses the Argonauts were allowing a more respectable 25 points per game on the season and they should bounce back here now that they're back inside the East Division where they've compiled that perfect record this season. The Argos got embarrassed here in October in an ugly defeat fueled by turnovers and penalties. Time for a little payback here no matter who is under center for the Argonauts. 8* TORONTO |
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08-11-17 | Steelers +3.5 v. Giants | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
NFL Network Smash - Rickenbach Friday NFLX 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ New York Giants @ 7 ET - As long-time followers know, contrarian angles are key for me. While the Giants are the popular choice here, I like the value with the underdog Steelers. While it is true that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has a history of not performing well ATS in the preseason, he is still a winner long-term with a straight-up record of 25-20 in preseason. Lets not forget the Giants only went 1-3 ATS in preseason last year under coach Ben McAdoo. Looking at the QB rotation and expected playing time in this game I certainly don't see enough to justify the big move toward New York in terms of the line on this game. The Giants only averaged 13.5 points per game in their two preseason home games last year. The Steelers have scored 19 points or more in 3 of their last 4 true road games in preseason action. The Giants are only 4-4 SU in preseason action the past 2 years and 2 of the 4 wins came by 3 points or less. That means laying 3.5 or more (as they are here) the Giants would be on a 2-6 ATS run and I am happy to grab the generous underdog line value in this one. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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08-10-17 | Edmonton +2.5 v. Ottawa | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFL 8* Edmonton Eskimos (+) @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7:30 ET - This line has made a huge move from an opener of Edmonton -2.5 to where the Eskimos are now a 2.5 point dog as of early gameday morning. Of course there is a reason for this big move. The Eskimos have injury issues. However, they've had issues for weeks now and they continue to find a way to win. Meanwhile, the Redblacks continue to find ways to implode. That said, I am happy to challenge Ottawa here with an undefeated Edmonton team that is on a mission. Remember they lost to the Redblacks in the playoffs last season. That said, even though they got some measure of revenge with a win in Edmonton last month, the Eskimos still need to prove they can win in Ottawa. They have lost their last two games played here including that key post-season loss last year. Edmonton is 6-0 on the season including 4-0 against teams from the East as the West dominance continues in non-divisional match-ups. The Reblacks are winless in 4 games against teams from the West. Both these teams were in action Friday so this week's game is on short rest. The Eskimos are a long-term 20-4 when playing on short rest of 6 days or less while Ottawa is just 1-3 with short rest of 6 days or less this season. All the above records I mentioned are straight-up and, that said, I'll gladly take the +2.5 points here as an added bonus with the undefeated Eskimos. Yes they have injuries but they continue to find ways to win and that continues this week. 8* EDMONTON |
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08-09-17 | Texans v. Panthers -1 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
NFL Network Smash Pass - Rickenbach Wednesday NFLX 8* Carolina Panthers (-) vs Houston Texans @ 7:30 ET - The Texans were a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in pre-season last year under head coach Bill O'Brien and that has helped to make them a popular choice here. O'Brien now has an 8-4 SU and ATS mark in NFLX action but, keep in mind, that means of course that he was just 2-2 SU and ATS in each of his first two seasons with Houston. That said, I feel there has been a significant over-reaction to last season's NFLX result for the Texans as well as the fact that starting QB Cam Newton is not going to play for Carolina here. In Week 1 of the pre-season the starters play very sparingly anyway and so this is truly a very insignificant factor and yet it has played a role in driving this line down from Carolina -3 to where the Panthers (as of Tuesday night) are basically a pick'em price on the money line in this game! I'll grab the added value here as I expect Carolina to show some extra hunger on the field in this one. Sure there are some rookies and some new faces (that is how pre-season always is) but there are plenty of guys who will see playing time Wednesday night at home that will also have extra pep in their step for this one. Why? Because when a team goes from 15-1 and a Super Bowl appearance to 6-10 in the next season, you tend to have a little extra hunger burning in your belly for the new season. The Panthers (including depth which is of course very important in pre-season) improved on both sides of the ball in the off-season and I like the value here that is being offered right off the bat in Week One so I won't hesitate to step in. 8* CAROLINA PANTHERS |
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08-04-17 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa -3.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Friday CFL 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (-) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - The defending Grey Cup Champion Redblacks have had a tough start to the season but this is the ideal spot for them to get back on track. Ottawa is coming off of a much needed bye week and they are 4-2 (both SU and ATS) when off of a bye week in recent seasons. Also, the Redblacks are playing with revenge here as the Blue Bombers handed them a home loss in their most recent meeting late last season. Ottawa is on a 13-7 ATS run in their games against teams with a winning record while Winnipeg is on a 4-10 ATS run in their games against teams with a losing record. The Blue Bombers are allowing 35.8 points per game this season and the Redblacks (after having to face ultra potent Calgary the first two weeks) has seen their defense settle in nicely with only 23.8 points allowed in their last 4 games. The combination of the defensive edge, the rest edge, home field edge, and the revenge angle set this one up perfectly for a big Ottawa win. The Redblacks had won 3 straight (by an average of 7.7 points per game) in this series before that loss late last season. Look for another win by at least 7 points in this one! 10* OTTAWA |
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08-01-17 | Tigers +1.5 v. Yankees | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 8* Detroit Tigers Run Line +1.5 runs @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - Despite outhitting the Yankees yesterday the Tigers ended up on the wrong end of a 7-3 final. I'll come right back with Detroit on the run line again today. The Tigers are available at very nearly a pick'em price on the run line and having the +1.5 runs is a huge value. Anibal Sanchez gets the start for the Tigers and, simply put, C.C. Sabathia and the Yankees are over-priced here! Though Sabathia has the lower ERA on the season, Sanchez has a WHIP that is every bit as good as Sabathia's. Sanchez has had limited action this season but he is back now and stronger than ever and offers great line value in this spot. Sanchez is off of a bad start versus red hot Kansas City but previously he had allowed only 26 hits in his last 30 innings of work. The Tigers had won each of his 4 starts prior to the loss to the Royals. The Detroit right-hander is 4-1 with a 3.25 ERA in his 6 starts versus the Yankees in his career. Also, Sanchez has a solid 3.24 ERA on the road this season while Sabathia has a 5.64 ERA at home this year. The Yankees left-hander has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 6 home starts and I look for another rough one for Sabathia here. The Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games versus left-handed starters and look for the Yankees to drop to 6-9 in Tuesday games on the season. Though I expect the upset here I am grabbing the extra insurance of the run line in this one. 8* Detroit Tigers Run Line +1.5 runs |
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07-31-17 | Tigers +1.5 v. Yankees | 3-7 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Monday MLB 8* Detroit Tigers Run Line +1.5 runs @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees Luis Severino certainly has been pitching well this season. However, the Tigers Michael Fullmer is truly "right there" with him! That said, with no decided pitching edge and the ability to have the Tigers at +1.5 runs AND a pick'em price, the value is too strong to ignore here. Fullmer shut out the Yankees over 6 innings in his lone career start versus them last season. Severino has one career start against the Tigers (also last season) and he allowed 10 hits in just 5 innings of work! Fullmer has a 2.91 ERA on the road this season while Severino has a 3.41 ERA at home on the year. Looking at Fullmer's last 15 starts, only 4 of the 15 have resulted in a Tigers loss by 2 runs or more. The Yankees are only 5-5 in Severino's last 10 starts. Should they really be a 2 to 1 favorite here on the money line? The Yanks are truly over-priced here and the line value is off the charts with the run line here! The Yankees are only 21-22 (DOWN $9,100) in their games against teams with a losing record this season. 8* DETROIT TIGERS Run Line +1.5 runs |
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07-29-17 | Hamilton +13 v. Calgary | Top | 1-60 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month - Rickenbach Saturday CFL 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 9:30 ET - Though Calgary is on normal rest (played exactly one week ago), it certainly helps Hamilton that they've had a couple extra days to prepare for this game. The hungry winless Tiger-Cats haven't played since last Thursday. That was a tight 3-point home loss to the undefeated Edmonton Eskimos and I foresee the Ti-Cats given the equally challenging Stampeders all they can handle in this one as well. Not only does Hamilton have a rest edge here, Calgary has a quick turnaround to look ahead to as well as they have a Thursday match-up at Toronto. The Argonauts are the top team in the East Division standings while the Tiger-Cats are winless and in dead last in the standings. That said, the Stampeders could look right past the Ti-Cats here and who could blame the Stamps? They've won 10 straight meetings between the teams. Even though Calgary has dominated straight-up, Hamilton is 7-3 ATS when off of a 2 or more consecutive losses. Also, the Tiger-Cats have gone 8-2 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 the past 3 seasons combined. In road games with a total of 56 points or more, the Ti-Cats are on a 14-8 ATS run. Also, the Tiger-Cats are 14-7 ATS when they are a road dog in a range of +10.5 to +14 points. The Stampeders are 0-3 ATS against East Division foes this season. Also, in home games with a posted total of 56 points or more, Calgary is on a 14-21 ATS run. Look for this one to be much closer than many are expecting. 10* HAMILTON |