Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-14-17 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Falcons | 20-36 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
Saturday Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL 8* Seattle Seahawks (+) @ Atlanta Falcons @ 4:35 ET - I have a ton of respect for the Falcons offense but they're facing a red hot Seattle defense and, make no bones about it, the Atlanta defense is a major weakness. That said, the Seahawks have been moving the ball very well and I just don't see the porous defense of the Falcons as being capable of stopping them. Based on yardage allowed, the Falcons rank 25th in the NFL on defense while the Seahawks rank 5th in the league! Another concern for Atlanta here is that they haven't tough competition since their very first game of December. That was against the Chiefs and Atlanta lost even though they were at home. Since the, the Falcons played 4 games against the two worst teams in their division and the two worst teams in the Seahawks division. The combined record of those 4 teams was 19-45. That certainly didn't help Atlanta in terms of being "game ready" for this one and sometimes the week off can actually hurt a teams rhythm on offense. As for Seattle, they've had to face the top two teams in the NFC North in the past few weeks. The Packers (an ugly loss but an aberration for the Seahawks) and the Lions combined to go 19-13 in the regular season. Seattle did beat the Patriots in New England earlier this season and they are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season! The Seahawks also won all 4 games this season when facing a team with a winning record and Seattle is 10-2 SU on turf this season! Surprisingly, the Falcons are only 1-4 ATS this season in home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. Atlanta has trouble "putting teams away" and has gone 8-18 ATS as a favorite the last 3 seasons and 2-8 ATS when off of a win against a division rival and the Falcons are a long-term 3-11 ATS in playoff games. It's hard to argue against the better defense here and a more "proven team" in terms of playoff experience. The Hawks are hungry! 8* SEATTLE plus the points Saturday afternoon |
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01-14-17 | Baylor +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 77-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
#1 Top Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Saturday 10* Top Play Baylor Bears (+) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 4:30 ET - The Bears got thoroughly embarrassed in their ugly loss at West Virginia Tuesday. After allowing 63 points or less in 14 of their 15 games on the way to a 15-0 start this season, the Bears allowed 89 to the Mountaineers. We don't have to tell you that Baylor may be in "response mode" here as the ATS stats back that fact up. The past two seasons the Bears have gone 7-0 SU and 6-0 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more! Baylor has won three straight games against the Wildcats and their last loss came by just 2 points at Kansas State. That said, with the line move here to a +2.5, we are getting even more line value with the Bears in this one. Baylor has played a tougher schedule than the Wildcats so far this season and, when Kansas State has stepped up (in terms of level of competition) they have failed this season. All the Cats straight-up wins have come in either non-lined games or games where their line was at least -6. The Wildcats have been a dog OR fave of 3 points or less 3 times and they went 0-3 SU in those games. Here Kansas State is catching Baylor at quite possibly the worst time as you know the Bears are going to bring their "A game" after what just happened in Morgantown earlier this week. The past two seasons Kansas State went 3-8 ATS when facing a team with a winning record in a game that was past the midway point (15 game mark) of the season. The Cats get exposed again here. 10* BAYLOR |
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01-14-17 | Notre Dame +3 v. Virginia Tech | 76-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Afternoon Blowout - Rickenbach CBB Game #559 Saturday 8* Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+) @ Virginia Tech Hokies @ 2 ET - The Fighting Irish are rolling and one of the most amazing aspects of their streak has been their play in the clutch. This Notre Dame team, no matter the score, never seems out of game. Of course being able to win games like this is huge and it is particularly important in conference play where so many games tend to be close. ND is a fantastic 15-2 on the season and their only two losses were to solid Purdue and Villanova teams. They catch Virginia Tech at the right time as the Hokies are off of a big double digit win over Syracuse but had lost each of their two prior games. In those previous games Virginia Tech allowed 98.5 points per game as teams shot about 57% against them from the field. Notre Dame is the much better team on the defensive end of the floor and we are getting line value because of the Hokies 10-0 record at home so far this season. Grab the line value with the road dog here as the Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in road games with a posted total between 155 and 159.5 points and Virginia Tech is 0-3 ATS in home games with that same range of points as the posted total. As you can see, a lot of points expect here and in a shootout I'll take the team that is more likely to raise there level of play on the defensive end in crunch time. The Irish are allowing just 39.6% from the field while the Hokies are allowing 42.8% from the field this season. 8* NOTRE DAME |
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01-14-17 | Minnesota +1.5 v. Penn State | 50-52 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB #525 Saturday 8* Minnesota Golden Gophers (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ Noon ET - Flat spot for the Nittany Lions. They have been sitting around for a week waiting to play again and this is after a huge victory at a "neutral site" game played in Philly versus Michigan State last Saturday. That was a massive win for Penn State in a historic venue in Philadelphia and the Nittany Lions are likely to get caught feeling a little too good about themselves as they head into this match-up with the Golden Gophers. Minnesota drew the misfortune of facing an angry Spartans team Wednesday and Sparty took out their frustrations from the PSU loss on the unsuspecting Gophers. Prior to that ugly loss to Michigan State, Minny had won 15 of their first 17 games this season and they'll be ready to respond in a big way here early on Saturday. Minnesota has lost three straight to Penn State so a little payback is on order here as well. The Golden Gophers are 3-1 ATS on the road this season and the Nittany Lions are 2-5 SU (and 2-4 ATS) when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. Penn State will be rusty here after the layoff. 8* MINNESOTA |
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01-13-17 | Hornets v. 76ers +5.5 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (+) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET Friday - The Sixers are "feeling it" right now with wins in 4 of their last 5 games and, on Friday, they are hosting a Hornets team that has lost 5 of its last 6 games! The 76'ers enter this game on an overall 5-0 ATS run and Charlotte is just 1-7 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season. In a road game where the posted total is in a range of 205 to 209.5 points, the Hornets have gone 6-14 SU and 6-13-1 ATS the past 3 seasons combined. Even though Philadelphia is off of an outright win as a dog (beat Knicks and New York was the small fave), don't look for Philly to fall flat here. In fact, the 76'ers are 6-3 ATS when coming off of an upset win as an underdog this season. The Sixers, off of many consecutive rough seasons, still "have a ways to go" of course but, with each win, their confidence is growing. Also, Philly is playing this game with revenge on their minds as they lost at Charlotte earlier this season and the 76'ers are hungry to get some payback as the Hornets have won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these teams. At home and playing loose and confident, the Sixers are going to be tough for the slumping Hornets to get past. 10* Top Play PHILADELPHIA plus the points early Friday evening |
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01-12-17 | SMU +6 v. Cincinnati | Top | 64-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Rickenbach CBB Game #553 Thursday 10* Top Play SMU Mustangs (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 9 ET - Great line value here with the underdog. The Mustangs have revenge from losing to the Bearcats when these teams last met in March. Both teams have been strong early this season but SMU is 6-2 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record while Cincinnati has gone only 3-4 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record. Also, as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Bearcats have an ugly long-term mark of 10-22 ATS! The last 4 games between these teams have been decided by an average of 5.8 points per game. This game is projected to be a hard-fought low-scoring battle and Cincy is an ugly 18-29 ATS in home games with a posted total in the 120s. The Mustangs are a solid 30-18 ATS in road games with a posted total in the 120s. Overall, in all games with a total posted between 120 and 129.5 points the last 3 seasons, SMU has gone an incredible 19-1 SU and 14-6 ATS! The Bearcats are ranked and they are at home so they are they popular choice here but the Mustangs have a great shot at the upset here and I'll gladly grab the generous points being offered. SMU has won 10 straight games and allowed only 54.8 points per game in those 10 games. 10* SMU |
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01-12-17 | Florida Atlantic v. Texas-San Antonio -2.5 | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CBB Game #544 Thursday 8* UTSA Roadrunners (-) vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 8 ET - Triple revenge spot for UTSA and the Roadrunners are surging with confidence right now. Not only are they off of a much-needed road win at Louisiana Tech - as a double digit dog no less - UTSA is a perfect 6-0 in home games this season. That said, I'll gladly lay the small number here with the Runners on their home floor as they also seek revenge for losing all 3 match-ups with the Owls last season. Florida Atlantic took both regular season meetings with the Roadrunners and then also knocked them out of the Conference USA tournament on March 8th by an ugly 82-58 final. UTSA shot horribly in that game so, despite 61 field goal attempts (compared to just 53 for FAU), the Roadrunners lost by two dozen points. That ended a tough season for UTSA and was also the final game for coach Brooks Thompson who was fired two days later. Tragically, he passed away only three months later at the age of only 45. The team hasn't forgotten Thompson nor the way their season ended against this same Owls team in what ended up being Thompson's last game. They will play extremely hard tonight there is no doubt and I look for them to improve to 7-0 at home this season. Florida Atlantic is 2-6 ATS when off of a win in conference action and also 7-14 ATS in their games against teams with a losing record. The Roadrunners have won just as many games in the past 5 weeks as they won all of last season and they are playing like a new team under coach Steven Henson. The markets just haven't caught up to them yet and that means line value here against a 5-9 Owls team. 8* UTSA |
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01-12-17 | Pelicans v. Nets +5 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:35 ET Thursday - Pelicans star center Anthony Davis hurt his hip late in the win at New York Monday. Even if he plays tonight (didn't do much at all in practice yesterday), Davis is not likely to be as effective as he has been. Also, his history against the Nets is not that impressive anyway with only 18 points per game in his 6 games. While New Orleans has a definite health concern here, Brooklyn is expected to get healthier as Trevor Booker (the Nets leading rebounder) is expected back tonight. The Nets have been a disappointment this season but this is a good spot for them to get back on track with the Pelicans off of a big road win and with Davis now hurting. The Pelicans had lost 3 straight prior to that win and that was just their 5th win in 18 road games this season! Even though New Orleans comes into this game off of two days rest, they are only 2-6 SU in that situation this season. The Nets had won 3 of 4 home games (with the lone loss to Golden State) in a stretch from December 7th to the 26th. Since then they have lost 4 straight at home but the losses included defeats against Utah, Atlanta, and Cleveland. Here they are facing a much less formidable foe and they were 7-8 at home this season before losing 4 straight. With road wins few and far between for the Pelicans and with the Nets ultra hungry to get back into the win column, this is the perfect spot to back the home dog getting generous points. 10* BROOKLYN |
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01-12-17 | Notre Dame +4 v. Miami (Fla) | 67-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CBB Game #517 Thursday 8* Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+) @ Miami Hurricanes @ 7 ET - This line opened up at a -2 on Miami and is now up to a -4 as of very early gameday morning. I am grabbing the value on the other side of the move. Many are likely backing the Hurricanes expecting them to bounce back at home after their ugly 70-55 road loss at Syracuse. However, Miami is actually a very ugly 2-10 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when they are off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less. Also, Notre Dame is playing this game with double revenge as they lost both games versus the Canes last season. Miami is just 2-5 ATS at home this season and the Fighting Irish have gone 13-7 SU in their last 20 road games and I'll back the revenging road dog getting the extra line value here. 8* NOTRE DAME |
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01-11-17 | LSU +10.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 62-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #751 Wednesday - 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (+) @ Texas A & M Aggies @ 8:30 PM ET - Not only is this a revenge game for LSU, it certainly is anything but "normal" revenge. The Tigers lost to Texas A & M in the SEC Tourney by a final score of 71 to 38 last spring. The Aggies, in that game, held LSU to a season-low in points and also a season-low in field goals made (13). Not only that but it also marked the fewest points scored by a team in any major conference for the entire season. You can bet that LSU got caught looking ahead to this revenge game in their poor effort at home against Mississippi State Saturday. The Tigers are only 9-5 this season but they will bring a much stronger effort on defense here after what happened against the Bulldogs Saturday and also after the way they played against the Aggies in the SEC Tourney. Keep in mind that the Tigers did beat A & M when they faced them at LSU last season and now it's time for a little "road payback". Of course a big key here is that the Aggies certainly aren't the level of team they were last season. Texas A & M is winless so far in the SEC and all 3 losses have come by double digits. Now they're being asked to win by double digits against a hungry, revenge-minded underdog and I just don't see that happening here. The Aggies are only 2-6 SU (and 1-6 ATS) in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the Tigers are 12-4 SU (and 10-5 ATS) the past 3 seasons combined when they are off of a loss in SEC action. LSU is also 4-1 SU and ATS this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Look for the Tigers to get back on track in a big way here and, if they do fall short, it will be single digits. They are highly motivated for this one. 10* Top Play LSU |
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01-11-17 | Minnesota +4.5 v. Michigan State | 47-65 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Big Ten Network Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #727 Wednesday 8* Minnesota Golden Gophers (+) @ Michigan State Spartans @ 7 ET - This line opened up at -2.5 on Sparty and quickly jumped up to -4.5 and I am not surprised since they have the home court edge here. However, what this has done has set up some nice line value on the other side as Minnesota, in comparison with Michigan State, has been playing the better basketball this season. The Golden Gophers one exception to being superior to the Spartans is that they suffered a tough, 1 point home loss to Michigan State in overtime two weeks ago. The only other loss that Minnesota has this season came at Florida State. Minny is holding opponents to just 28.6% from three point land. The Spartans are allowing 34.2% from beyond the arc. The Golden Gophers are 3-0 ATS on the road this season and 3-0 ATS as an underdog. Minnesota was up 39-26 at halftime in their home loss to Michigan State earlier this season and they have now lost back to back games to the Spartans but they did win in their last visit to East Lansing and I expect another "upset" in this one as well. Grab the generous points here. 8* MINNESOTA |
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01-10-17 | Hawks v. Nets +7.5 | Top | 117-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET Tuesday - With the Hawks having won six straight and the Nets having lost six straight, this is definitely a contrarian choice. Of course we are already getting extra line value here as a result. Atlanta was a low as a 6-point favorite and the line is already up to a 7.5 as of early Tuesday morning. The Nets are coached by Kenny Atkinson and he was an assistant with the Hawks for 4 seasons before coming to Brooklyn this season. As a result, he certainly knows a thing or two about the Xs and Os that Atlanta will employ in this match-up. This game means a lot more to the Nets than the Hawks. It is difficult for Atlanta not to look past the 8-28 Nets as they have a much bigger game (home versus Boston) on deck. That said, the Nets are likely to step up and surprise some people in this one! Brooklyn has been playing better on the defensive end as they have held their opponents to 41.5% field goal shooting in their last 3 home games. Opponents did include Utah and Cleveland! Even though Atlanta has won 6 straight, 4 of the 6 wins have come by 7 points or less. The Hawks have stayed under the total in 3 straight games and, when that has been the case this season, they have gone 2-5 ATS (and 1-6 SU) in their next game! In other words don't be surprised if the Nets gets the upset. However, I am certainly grabbing the points. The Nets are 3-1 ATS this season as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points. 10* Top Play BROOKLYN |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +7 v. Alabama | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 33 m | Show |
National Championship Game - Rickenbach CFB 10* Top Play Clemson Tigers (+) vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on Monday @ 8:30 PM ET - Alabama, it goes without saying, is a phenomenal football program. There is no doubt about that fact. However, that doesn't mean that value can't be had in going against them. The Crimson Tide are here because they got by Washington last weekend. I want to remind everyone though that the Huskies come from the Pac-12 and that conference went 0-6 ATS in the bowls! In other words, one could argue that Alabama certainly should have done a lot more damage than they did against Washington last week. Yes, the Crimson Tide did get enough for the cover in the 24-7 win but their offense only gained 326 yards in that game. Believe it or not, that was the 4th time in their last 6 games that Alabama has been held to less than 373 yards of offense! That said, is the firing of offensive coordinator Kiffin and his replacement with Sarkisian really going to be a good thing before a huge match-up with a high-quality foe? I highly doubt that! The Clemson D just stepped up HUGE against the Buckeyes last week in their 31-0 win as the Tigers held Ohio State to just 215 yards. In fact, in 4 of their last 6 games, Clemson held their opponents under 278 yards of offense! I expect the Tigers, playing with revenge and playing their best defense of the season, to bring their "A game" again in this one. As for their offense, it is one of the most dynamic in the country and Clemson has also been amazingly consistent. They have averaged 502.9 yards per game this season and, they have gained over 441 yards per game in each of their last 12 games. While one could argue that Alabama faced the tougher schedule this season, the SEC overall was not nearly as strong as it was in past seasons. The "playing field" here has truly leveled out and the value is with the revenging dog getting a full TD in this one. The Tigers are on a 6-1 ATS run as an underdog and a long-term run of 31-14 ATS as an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. The Crimson Tide had just 18 first downs in last year's Championship game while allowing 31. The Tigers had to get in the backdoor for that cover but the stats do tell a better story here. This year I would not be surprised to see the outright upset and will gladly grab the big points here. 10* Top Play CLEMSON on Monday Night |
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01-08-17 | Giants +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Playoff Game of the Year Sunday - 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 4:40 ET - The Packers secondary is banged up. Yes it will be cold in Green Bay Sunday but no precipitation is expected and winds are not expected to be significant enough to impact the aerial attack. In other words, look for the Pack to struggle to stop Eli Manning, Odell Beckham Jr. and company in this one. The Packers do enter the post-season on a 6-game winning streak but they've certainly had some good fortune on their side during the streak and they have allowed over 1,000 passing yards in their last 3 games! Of course Aaron Rodgers has been the key as he's seemingly willed this Packers team to victories throughout this winning streak. I have plenty of respect for Rodgers and his weapons in the receiving game as well but this Giants defense is going to give them some problems. New York is one of the top defenses in the league against the run and they also came on strong against the pass as the season went on. In their last 4 games of the regular season, the Giants allowed only 834 passing yards total! I am well aware of the fact that Green Bay beat the Giants earlier this season but, keep in mind, New York had a lot of new faces on defense early this season and it took this unit quite some time to jell. The Giants loss at Green Bay earlier this season dropped New York to 2-3 on the season. Since then, the Giants have gone 9-2. Also, the Giants have allowed only 15.3 points per game in their last 10 games. Green Bay has allowed an average of 25.3 points per game in their last 3 games. Also, the Giants have allowed more than 24 points only one time this entire season. The Packers have allowed 24 points or more in 7 of their last 10 games. Green Bay's average points per game allowed during this stretch was 26.5 points in the 10 games. Now for some history that is hard not to ignore here. Eli Manning and the Giants have been a machine in the playoffs as long as they've avoided their nemesis (division rival Eagles). Philadelphia knocked New York out of the post-season in 2006 and 2008. Prior to that, way back in 2005, Eli Manning made his playoff debut and he had an ugly game. So chalking up 1 game to the rookie experience and 2 games to facing a hated division rival that always gives them trouble, how have the Giants fared in all their other post-season experiences with Manning? 8-0 SU and 8-0 ATS. 7 of the games saw the Giants as a dog and, as you can see, they won all 7 outright. The lone time they were a small fave they won by 22 points! Green Bay lost to the Giants for two of those post-season New York victories and they would love to get revenge here. However, the defense (including the cluster of injuries that have hurt the secondary so badly) is going to prove to be the Packers downfall here. Green Bay is 3-5 in their last 8 playoff games and, in their last 5 home playoff games, the Pack covered the spread just once, that's 20% ATS! The Giants are 5-1 ATS when off of a win against a division rival and look for them to add another cover to that mark here. 10* Top Play NEW YORK GIANTS late afternoon Sunday |
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -10 | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Sunday - Rickenbach NFL 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 1:05 ET - The biggest favorite on the board for Wild Card weekend and I am laying the points here. This huge line is absolutely justified. This is a revenge spot for the Steelers as they lost at Miami earlier this season and Ben Roethlisberger got hurt in that game and certainly wasn't himself. Look for Big Ben and Pittsburgh to get revenge here as they have won 7 straight games and they were on a 5-1 ATS run before the meaningless season finale where they did beat Cleveland but, of course, were resting starters. The Dolphins, other than their win over the Steelers, did not beat a single team this season that had more than 7 wins! Also, Miami's last 4 losses all came by 13 points or more. They're more than capable of getting blown out, especially when facing revenging opponent that now has the huge edge at QB. While Ryan Tannehill is out for Miami, Big Ben is fired up for this rematch. The Steelers have the superior weapons all over the field in looking at this match-up. Miami head coach Adam Gase certainly deserves some credit for getting this Dolphins team to the playoffs but this is not a good match-up for them at all and, again, their only win against a team that didn't end up with a losing record this season was when they beat Pittsburgh with Roethlisberger basically playing the 2nd half on one leg! It's payback time in a big way here. Miami is 2-6 ATS when off of a loss against a division rival and also 0-3 ATS as a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. The Steelers are 2-0 ATS in recent seasons and 23-12 ATS long-term when they are a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* PITTSBURGH early Sunday afternoon |
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01-08-17 | 76ers +2.5 v. Nets | 105-95 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 12:05 ET Sunday - Scheduling situation favors the Sixers in a big way. This is one of only 2 games the 76'ers have scheduled in a span of 7 days. That means full availability of all their players and Philadelphia's big men are going to give the Nets trouble. Embiid, Noel, and Okafor are all expected to be available here. The Sixers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams and have been playing well since TJ McConnell took over at the point after Sergio Rodriguez hurt his ankle. Philly has covered 3 straight and 4 of their last 5 games. The Nets have the league's worst scoring defense. Also, Brooklyn is still without Jeremy Lin. Brooklyn has won just 1 game in their last 11 and that victory came by just 2 points. That means that at the -2.5 that this game opened up at for the Nets, had they laid that number in their last 11 games they'd be 0-11 ATS. Look for the Sixers to win this one outright but I'll gladly grab the small number being offered here as Philly has been playing the better basketball of these two clubs and, also, this is the 3rd game in 4 days for the Nets. 8* PHILADELPHIA very early Sunday |
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01-08-17 | Richmond +4.5 v. George Washington | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #517 Sunday 8* Richmond Spiders (+) @ George Washington Colonials @ Noon ET - The Colonials lost a ton of talent from last year's team that won the NIT Championship and certainly it has shown. George Washington is only 6-6 in their last 12 games and 4 of the 6 wins have come by 4 points or less. That makes the points very attractive here as does the fact that the road team has covered 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams. The Spiders did win in overtime here last season but they also enter this game with revenge because the Colonials returned the favor at Richmond in their final match-up of the season. The Spiders and George Washington are both allowing just 42.2% from the field this season but the Colonials are allowing 37% from three point land. Also, on the season, George Washington is only shooting 40.6% from the field while Richmond is shooting 45.7% from the field. The Colonials are only 15-27 ATS in conference games the past 3 seasons and have gone just 1-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. This season, in games with a posted total in the 140s, George Washington is 1-4 ATS. The Spiders are a long-term 9-5 ATS in road games with a posted total between 140 and 144.5 points. The Colonials are off of a win versus Davidson where, seemingly, everything was falling. After hitting 61% from three point land (uncharacteristic!) and still only winning the game by 4 points, look for things to return to normal for George Washington here. The Spiders could pull the upset but certainly I'll grab the points here. 8* RICHMOND very early Sunday |
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01-07-17 | Lions +8 v. Seahawks | Top | 6-26 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
NFL Value Game of the Week Saturday - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - No one will want the Lions here and you know what that means at this time of year. Yes, I am being a contrarian and grabbing Detroit plus the big points. Of course it is certainly not without support! One of the biggest keys is that if you look at who Seattle has played this year you become much less impressed with them. The Seahawks certainly benefited in their own division because the Rams and 49'ers were awful this season. Those teams combined for a 6-26 record this season. Of course the other divisional foe was Arizona and Seattle did not defeat the Cardinals in either game. The Seahawks lost at home to the Cards just a few weeks ago and they tied the Cardinals at Arizona much earlier this season in a game where Seattle didn't even deserve to get the tie. The point is that Seattle ended up 3-2-1 in a division where the other teams were a combined 13-34-1. That is NOT impressive. Outside of their division the Seahawks lost to New Orleans and Tampa Bay (non-playoff teams with combined 16-16 record). Seattle did get to face a couple playoffs team and most of the results were not overly impressive when you try to justify laying big points here with the Seahawks. They beat Houston by 2 points, beat Atlanta by 2 points and lost at Green Bay by 28 points! Their only impressive win was of course the revenging win they got at New England in a primetime game where they played their best game of the season and managed to hang on for the win. While Detroit struggled to finish out the season those defeats against 3 straight playoff teams truly "swung" on big plays that shifted the momentum in each game. The playoffs are here, the Lions are battle-tested, and they'll hang in this one all the way. Detroit does have a solid defense and they only lost 2 games by more than 7 points this entire season. The Lions have some playoff experience under coach Jim Caldwell (lost by just 4 at Dallas two years ago) and the Seahawks are getting priced here as if they're the powerhouse they were two and three seasons ago when they made the Super Bowl each year. This team is not as that level. Grab the value here with the big dog. 10* Top Play DETROIT LIONS Saturday night |
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01-07-17 | Raiders +4 v. Texans | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator Saturday - Rickenbach NFL 8* Oakland Raiders (+) @ Houston Texans @ 4:35 ET - Both teams have issues at QB and I'll gladly take the points here. Houston is expected to go with Brock Osweiler because of Tom Savage's concussion. Oakland is expected to go with Connor Cook because back-up QB Matt McGloin injured his shoulder. Of course regular starting QB Derek Carr is out with a broken fibula. Everyone is likely to flock to Houston here because of having the home field edge and because of the Raiders being down to their 3rd string QB. However, the Texans offense is such a weakness (especially with Osweiler running the show) that I would not be surprised to see Oakland hang around throughout this game and then spring the upset late. Even if Houston does hang on for a win here I expect it to be by 3 points or less. Remember Oakland got the comeback win over the Texans in the Mexico City game not too long ago. Houston is only 7-7 in their last 14 games and every single win was decided by just a single possession. The average margin of victory in the 7 Texans wins was just 4 points. Houston's last 6 wins have seen 4 decided by a field goal or less. Look for everyone on the Raiders to "step up" and bring a huge effort because they know they have a rookie QB to support. Sometimes that brings the best of efforts out of an entire team and that is what I expect here as Cook makes his first-ever NFL start. The Raiders are a long-term 35-15 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. They are also 7-1 ATS the past 3 seasons when off of a loss to a division rival. The Texas are 0-5 ATS this season when off of a game against a divisional foe. 8* OAKLAND Saturday afternoon |
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01-07-17 | St. John's +14 v. Xavier | Top | 82-97 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #763 Saturday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) @ Xavier Musketeers @ 2:30 ET - The Red Storm are coming off of an awful season and, as a result, we're still getting line value with them early this season. They've added some size and length inside which certainly has improved the interior defense. In fact, on the season, the Johnnies are allowing the same field goal percentage (42%) as the Musketeers so this shows how far they've come. Xavier lost some of their "length" from last year's team and this has impacted their defense. Don't get me wrong, the Musketeers are certainly still the superior team in comparison with St John's but, what we're seeing here is that the gap between these teams has truly narrowed. That said, the Red Storm also have toughened up thanks to some tough early season road games and tournament battles with teams like Michigan State and Virginia Commonwealth. The Red Storm already have an impressive win over Syracuse and upset win over Butler on their resume this season. The fact that St John's just lost their most recent game (hosting Creighton) by 13 points is helping lead to additional line value here. Even as bad as the Johnnies were last year they lost their two games with Xavier by 8 points or less. The prior year St John's actually won both games with the Musketeers. They are undervalued here and Xavier is on a 1-5 ATS run as a home fave in a range of 12.5 to 15 points. The Red Storm have gone 4-0 ATS on the road this season and are a long term 16-6 ATS in road games where the total is between 145 and 149.5 points. More of the same Saturday. 10* ST JOHN'S plus the big points |
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01-07-17 | DePaul +14 v. Seton Hall | 56-87 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Saturday - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Saturday 8* DePaul Blue Demons (+) @ Seton Hall Pirates @ Noon ET - Too many points here. Sure, the Pirates are 11-3 on the season and the Blue Demons are 7-8 on the season thus far. However, DePaul has only lost 1 game (out of 15 games this season) by more than 14 points. Also, 5 of the Blue Demons 8 losses have come by a single digit margin. DePaul also has revenge on their minds here as they lost by 14 at home versus the Pirates last season. The Blue Demons only lost by 4 points in the game at Seton Hall last season and, the prior year, DePaul actually won both games with Seton Hall to earn the 2-0 season sweep. Certainly the Pirates are the better team this season but this line is inflated and, as most of the Big East coaches have been openly discussing, it's going to be a "black and blue" season where no wins are coming easy. The talent level is that closely matched across all programs. That is why right now, in the Big East standings - even though so few games have been played - there is only one undefeated team and only two winless teams out of all 10 teams. It's going to be a "dogfight" season in the Big East and thanks to the scoring punch of Eli Cain, Billy Garrett, and TreDarius McCallum the Blue Demons can hang tough in this one all the way. Look at Seton Hall's last 12 games, they only have 1 win by more than a 13 points margin. The Pirates are 2-6 ATS as a favorite this season. The Blue Demons are 6-2 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when they are a road dog of 12.5 points or more. 8* DE PAUL plus the big points very early Saturday |
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01-05-17 | Texas-San Antonio -2 v. Southern Miss | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
CUSA Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #741 Thursday - 10* Top Play UTSA Roadrunners (-) @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ 8 ET - Most will look at this game and just say it's plain ugly and want to stay away. However, I see great opportunity here with a low number on an improving team that is building up in confidence under a new coach with a new system. Steven Henson, a Lon Kruger protege, has done a great job already with the Roadrunners and his team is now going to be playing their 15th game of the season and they are at the point where they have bought into his systems and defense has improved as a result. UTSA has won 3 straight games and 4 of its last 5. Winning, especially notching victory in their conference opener against UTEP, has done wonders for the confidence of this Roadrunners team and they are ready to go and get an elusive road win. I am well aware of the fact that UTSA hasn't won on the road yet this season but they are facing a Southern Mississippi program that is still trying to find its footing after the scandal that has left them on probation until 2020. This team has only won 3 games this season and those were all non-lined games (which shows you how weak the opposition was). The Golden Eagles are 0-9 SU in lined games this season and here we have a very small line on this game so the SU winner is likely to get the cash and I look for UTSA to get the big road win they are so hungry for. Coach Henson has won this team over and they head to Hattiesburg, Miss. with plenty of confidence in tow. The Runners have held their last 3 opponents to 38.4% from the field and just 63.3 points per game. The Golden Eagles have averaged just 56.6 points per game in their last 12 games and they come into this game having lost 9 straight. UTSA's Gino Littles has combined with Giovanni De Nicolao to give the Roadrunners a solid 1-2 punch at point guard because both players have proved very capable of running the offense with precision. I am well aware of the fact that the Runners 2nd leading scorer, Nick Billingsley, did not make this road trip (academics) but senior guard JR Harris is about to return from a leg injury. Harris could be back as soon as tonight and just the fact that UTSA's leading returning scorer from last year is almost back and the team has won three straight has got the Roadrunners believing they can go and take down this road win. The Golden Eagles were projected by most to finish dead last in CUSA this season and Southern Miss is certainly the perfect spot for the Runners to notch that highly sought-after road win. Look for the Eagles to drop to 0-4 SU and ATS in home lined games this season. 10* UTSA Roadrunners Thursday |
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01-05-17 | Jazz v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
Non-Conf Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (-) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:35 ET Thursday - With both teams off of losses, this may not seem like such a strong situation (on the surface!) for Toronto. However, when you dig a little deeper there is plenty of reason to be very "bullish" on the Raptors for Thursday night! Utah is off of a loss where they allowed 55.4% shooting from the field and 115 points. This season, when the Jazz are off of a loss where they allowed 111 points or more, they've actually gone 0-3 ATS in their next game. When Utah has allowed an opponent to shoot over 51.1% from the field, the Jazz have also gone 0-3 ATS in their next game. Also, Utah is 2-8 ATS as an underdog this season and that includes 0-3 ATS this season as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Raptors are fully focused on this home game after struggling on their recent road trip. Toronto has another road game coming up before finally settling in for a 4-game homestand so they want to make the most of this game versus the Jazz. The Raptors are 5-1 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they allowed their opponent to connect at a rate of 51.1% or better from the field. After getting thoroughly embarrassed by the hot shooting of the Spurs in San Antonio Tuesday, the Raptors are going to "bring it" on Thursday night. The Raptors are still 8-4 ATS this season against teams with a winning record while the Jazz are only 6-9 ATS this season. Toronto has won 7 of its last 9 home games. The Jazz had a 4-game losing streak before losing at Boston Tuesday but note that the wins came against Brookyn, Phoenix, Philadelphia, and the Lakers. Those are 4 of the worst teams in the league. Even if George Hill is back for the Jazz tonight, they are running into an angry Raptors team here that will take advantage of their home court edge to get back on track. 10* TORONTO Thursday evening |
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01-04-17 | Virginia -6 v. Pittsburgh | 76-88 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
Wednesday Winner - Rickenbach CBB Game #563 - 8* Virginia Cavaliers (-) @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ 9 ET - Both teams are off of losses so each team is looking to bounce back. Look for the Cavaliers stellar defense to be the difference in this one. Virginia is allowing an average of only 48.6 points per game this season while holding opponents to 35.2% from the field. Contrast this with the Panthers who allow 75.8 points per game! Pittsburgh gets a lot of hype for their home court but the result of the "too much hype" has been a 14-25 ATS mark the past three seasons. The Panthers have a solid frontcourt but are not that strong defensively or at the point. That's why their top leaders in assists are actually their top tandem of forwards - Michael Young and Jamel Artis. The Panthers will be looking to respond off of their loss but are only 9-12 ATS when off of a loss in conference action. Conversely, the Cavaliers are a rock solid 8-1 SU (and 6-3 ATS) when off of a loss in ACC action. Also, the Panthers are just 1-6 ATS as a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Versus strong defensive teams (allowing 64 points or less per game), Pittsburgh is on a 3-17 ATS run. The Panthers have lost 4 straight games to the Cavs and each of the last two defeats have come by at least a dozen points. Combining the top trends above (6-3 on Cavs, 6-1 against Pitt and 17-3 against Pitt) this is a 29-7 (81%) spot favoring the Cavaliers. The Cavs have are a perfect 6-0 the last 6 times they have lost a game and most of the victories have been blowouts and only one win came by less than 7 points. Look for another road rout here! 8* VIRGINIA Wednesday |
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01-03-17 | Arkansas v. Tennessee -1.5 | Top | 82-78 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
SEC Rivalry Rout - Rickenbach CBB Game #720 Tuesday - 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers (-) vs Arkansas Razorbacks @ 6:30 ET - As I wrote in my write-up last Thursday when I rode the Vols to victory over the Aggies, head coach Rick Barnes is in his 2nd season at Tennessee but, though the Volunteers are certainly still rebuilding, they did notch a few victories over SEC rivals like Florida, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt last season. Though not a traditional SEC rival like those, Arkansas has been in the SEC long enough to get under the skin of Tennessee fans and this is especially true considering that the Razorbacks have won 4 straight meetings with the Volunteers. Those wins included knocking the Vols out of the SEC Tourney 2 years ago. As for coach Barnes experience against the Hogs, he is certainly not happy about dropping both match-ups with them last season. That said, the Razorbacks absolutely have the full attention of coach Barnes. Keep in mind, this is their SEC home opener and after an embarrassing loss to open up the season (against Chattanooga), coach Barnes has the Vols settled in. They have gone 8-4 since then and the only 4 losses were to teams ranked in the top 20 in the nation. While the Vols have been battle-tested this season, Arkansas only has one win against a major conference foe and most of their early season wins have come against weak competition. In their first SEC game of the season Arkansas already found out just how tough it's going to be as they step up in competition and Florida handled them rather easily and Arky was home for that game! Now they're on the road and facing a hungry team that is looking for revenge and that has been playing well. The "cherry on top" here is that Arkansas has a game at highly ranked Kentucky on deck and just lost to a ranked Florida team that also knocked the Razorbacks out of the SEC Tourney last spring. That said, this could easily be an emotional letdown game for Arky and the Vols will gladly take advantage. The Volunteers are 5-1 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. The Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Look for plenty of points here as the Vols pull away and win this in a blowout. 10* TENNESSEE |
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01-02-17 | UL-Lafayette -1.5 v. Arkansas-Little Rock | Top | 69-52 | Win | 100 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conf Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #533 Monday - 10* Top Play UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-) @ Arkansas Little Rock Trojans @ 9 ET Monday - The set-up here is fantastic. The Ragin Cajuns are highly motivated as they have revenge from the Trojans knocking them out of Sun Belt Conference tourney spring. Also, UL-Lafayette comes into this game off of a tight 3-point loss at Arkansas State but previously had won 10 of their last 11 games. They now visit Little Rock looking for revenge and they catch the Trojans off of an OT win @ UL-Monroe. That was the same Warhawks team that Arkansas-Little Rock had beaten last spring in the SBC tourney to make it to the Big Dance. Make no mistake that was an intense hard-fought win for the Trojans Saturday and now they won't be able to match the intensity of the hungry, revenge-minded Ragin Cajuns Monday night. Louisiana is 3-0 ATS as a favorite this season while the Trojans are a long-term 1-7 ATS in home games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. Both teams lost some key personnel from last year's squads but the Ragin' Cajuns are a pleasant surprise so far this season and they are fired up for this revenge game. The set up is perfect. I'll take it! 10* UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns |
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01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State +7 | Top | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Bowl Game of the Year - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs USC Trojans in Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA @ 5 ET Monday - The Nittany Lions, as usual, are getting no respect. The Buckeyes got invited to the CFB Playoffs, instead of Penn State who beat them head to head and then also won the Big Ten Championship over Wisconsin. Regardless of the "ugly" win over Ohio State and the fact that they had some "luck" in the rally over the Badgers for the conference championship, this is a strong Nittany Lions team. They are confident, their defense is solid, their offense is surging, AND perhaps most important of all, they're playing with a chip on their shoulder here. They feel disrespected and are out to make a statement in this game by knocking off USC. The Trojans certainly got hot this season and I have plenty of respect for them. However, the Pac-12 has looked weaker and weaker the more the bowl performances have come in. Washington couldn't move the ball in their bowl game. Colorado got crushed by Oklahoma State in their bowl game. Washington State lost to Minnesota in their bowl game. Utah won their bowl game by only 2 points and Stanford won their bowl game by just 2 points. The point is that these are the types of teams that USC played all season long and yet now they're supposed to beat the Big Ten Champion Nittany Lions by more than a TD. I feel the Trojans are being over-rated here. They built up their stats with games against Pac-12 weaklings like UCLA, Oregon, Cal, Arizona, and Arizona State. Those teams had a combined record of 21-39 this season. In tougher games away from home, the Trojans lost at Utah and at Stanford and got absolutely crushed in a neutral site game versus Alabama. Does that sound like a team a that is a full TD better than the Big Ten champs? I say no way. Another thing that is hard to put a measurement on is momentum and confidence and moxie. Penn State has all 3 as they have rallied from huge deficits to win the biggest of games and they've won 9 straight games after a 2-2 start. As you can see, the Nittany Lions have momentum, confidence and they "never say never" as shown in the Big Ten Championship Game. Look for USC to drop to 0-5 in their last 5 neutral field games. As for the Nittany Lions, I look for them to improve to 5-1 SU in neutral site games but I'll definitely grab all the points I can get with this dangerous dog. They have averaged 328 passing yards per game in their last 4 games and look for RB Saquon Barkley to have a huge game as he is refreshed after the break. 10* PENN STATE |
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01-02-17 | Iowa +3 v. Florida | 3-30 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
Outback Bowl - Rickenbach 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) vs Florida Gators @ Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL @ 1 ET Monday - The Hawkeyes defense (17.9 points per game) is just as good as the Gators. In fact, Iowa allowed a total of just 23 points in their last 3 games of the regular season. Florida has allowed 31 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. While the Gators wrapped up the season with back to back losses, the Hawkeyes come into the bowl game riding the momentum of 3 straight wins and they scored 34 points per game in their final two games of the season. The Gators offense has been held to 16 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Florida's injury list is also a much longer one than that of Iowa. The Gators are banged up and the Hawkeyes are hot at the right time. Iowa is on a 6-3 ATS run in games where the line is in a range of +3 to -3 and Florida is on a 2-4 ATS run in games where the line is anywhere from +3 to -3. Big value with the defensive dog in this one. 8* IOWA |
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01-02-17 | Western Michigan v. Wisconsin -8.5 | 16-24 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
Cotton Bowl - Rickenbach 8* Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Western Michigan @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX @ 1 ET Monday - Western Michigan is 13-0...and yet they've played no one. Seriously. With all due respect to the Broncos for not faltering and coming up with an amazing undefeated record, let's keep in mind that they play in the MAC which is one of the weakest conferences in CFB. The Broncos toughest games this season were as a 3 point dog versus Northwestern and a 3 point favorite with Illinois. They did dominate an Illini team that went on to go 3-9 on the season but they only snuck by the Wildcats by a single point and that Northwestern team is a far cry from the strength of the Big Ten team their facing Monday. Wisconsin is absolutely one of the best Big Ten teams and they have a tremendous defense that is in a foul mood after the way they failed to close the door on Penn State in the Big Ten Championship. That means a huge effort is coming from the Badgers D here and they often dominate teams (allowed 17 points or less in 10 of their first 12 games this season). The Badger offense can pound the ball on the ground and the Broncos D line is going to have trouble with the powerful Badgers O line. Wiscy ran the ball extremely well to wrap up the season. Western Michigan's D did allow 200+ rushing yards in 5 of their last 10 games despite facing a weak schedule. To put that in perspective, the Badgers D (even with facing a tough schedule) never allowed more than 185 rushing yards this entire season. Look for the Badgers to dominate this one in the trenches and that should lead to a victory by a double digit margin. 8* WISCONSIN |
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01-01-17 | Packers v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher Top - Rickenbach NFL Sunday Night 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:30 ET - No matter what happens earlier in the day Sunday this game will of course decided who wins the NFC North. However, it is also quite likely that this game will end up resulting in the loser staying home for the post-season! That said, this is a huge game no matter what and I expect it to be a huge battle. That is all the more reason that there is tremendous line value with being able to grab the Lions at +3.5 in this game. Getting the home dog in that price range is a huge edge. Green Bay enters this game on a 5-game winning streak but 3 of the games were against teams that will not end the season with a winning record. Also the Packers have benefited greatly from turnovers in many of their recent wins. That is why they keep on winning despite their biggest overall yardage edge in any of their last 4 games being just 2 yards (twice). The Packers actually were outgained in the other two games! A high total is posted on this game and the Lions are 7-0 (ATS and SU) in games with a posted total of 49.5 or more points the past 3 seasons. Detroit has lost the past two weeks but they were on the wrong end of the turnovers (2-0) in each game. Green Bay rates the better offense but is Aaron Rodgers really healthy? Also, the Lions do rate the edge on defense and special teams. Don't be surprised if the Lions get revenge for their loss at Green Bay earlier this season. However, I am certainly grabbing all the points I can get here in case the Lions fall just short. Home dog value! 10* DETROIT |
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01-01-17 | Ohio State v. Illinois -1 | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
Big Ten Network Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #714 Sunday - 8* Illinois Illini (-) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7 ET - This situation favors the Illini in many ways. Illinois is coming off of an embarrassing loss on Tuesday that saw them score only 59 points at Maryland. Of course that means extra motivation for the Illini here, not that they needed it. These teams have met 3 times in the past 2 seasons (once at OSU and once in Illinois) and the Buckeyes have taken all 3 meetings. This is the ideal spot for the Illini to put an end to that streak as, not only do they have home court, not only are they off of an embarrassing loss, Illinois is catching Ohio State after a 9-day break! The Buckeyes have a lot of rust to work off and, additionally, they have a huge game on deck with the Boilermakers. Ohio State lost at Purdue last season so they're looking for revenge in that game and, of course, the Boilermakers have the attention of all of the Big Ten right now as they are highly ranked. Even though OSU won both games with Illinois last season won came by just 2 points and the other one came in overtime. Those tight losses certainly show just how "close" the Illini were and this is the perfect spot for them to get over the hump. Illinois has a SU record of 29-12 in home games the past three seasons (including 7-1 this season) while Ohio State is only 8-13-1 ATS (9=13 SU) in road games the past three seasons. All the extra rest heading into this game is not something the Buckeyes are use to and they lost and failed to cover the only such game like this the past two seasons. This season they are 0-3 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s. The Illini are on a 3-year run of 35-6 SU (and 25-14 ATS) in games in which they are a favorite. Look for the hungry revenging home team to get the job done here. 8* ILLINOIS Sunday |
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01-01-17 | Giants v. Redskins -7.5 | 19-10 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL 8* Washington Redskins (-) vs New York Giants @ 4:25 ET Sunday - Yes this line is a little bit high (considering it has moved above a 7) but is absolutely justified. The Redskins don't completely control their destiny but they're about as close as you can get truly. Washington simply needs to win this game and they should absolutely be in the playoffs because the only way they wouldn't make it is if Detroit and Green Bay finished in a tie Sunday night and, of course, that is highly unlikely. That said, the Redskins actually catch a break by matching up with the Giants here. New York is already locked into the #5 seed in the NFC and it would be foolish for New York to risk injuring guys when this game can do nothing for their playoff position. That means a hungry Redskins team with an ultra-dangerous offense should hold the upper hand in this one. Washington's offense ranks as one of the tops in the league thanks to QB Cousins and the Giants strength is their defense but I can't see them being ultra-intense in this game considering their playoff position is already set and they need to stay healthy for next week. The Redskins are on an 8-3 ATS run in divisional action. The Giants are off of a loss at Philadelphia last week and are actually a surprising 1-6 SU (and 1-5-1 ATS) when off of a loss against a division rival. 8* WASHINGTON |
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01-01-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers +4.5 | Top | 37-27 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play San Diego Chargers (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 4:25 ET Sunday - This is another one of those "danger spots" for a playoff bound team. Even though the Chiefs have locked in a playoff spot they still know that a win coupled with a Raiders loss would give them the AFC West Division. That said, Kansas City has all the pressure on them here while the Chargers would love nothing more than to make sure that they're hated division rival does not win the division. San Diego also has revenge from a loss at KC very early this season where the Chargers blew a big lead and then lost in OT. Look for San Diego to be amped up for this opportunity as it's the best way to finish their season (by making sure the Chiefs don't win the division) after the disappointment of losing at Cleveland last week. As ugly as San Diego's overall season record is, they've been "in" virtually every game this season and 5 of their last 9 losses all have come by 4 points or less. All but one of their 10 losses has been decided by 8 points or less. The Chargers will bring their A game this week and the Chiefs are one of the most over-rated 11-5 teams in league history as, based on yardage, they rank 20th on offense and 24th on defense in the league! San Diego actually ranks higher in both categories and the Chiefs special teams edge isn't enough to warrant them being this sizable of a favorite on the road. Ugly home dog likely to get the job done once again in a season finale (they beat Miami by 16 in LY's season finale). 10* SAN DIEGO |
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01-01-17 | Cowboys v. Eagles -4.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - This rivalry means a ton to the Eagles and especially the Philadelphia fans. The Eagles players, coaching staff, and upper management are certainly all well aware of this as well. What that means is that, even though Dallas is the team going to the playoffs and they have already locked up the #1 seed in the NFC, you'd better believe that Philly is going to "Bring It" on Sunday. For the Eagles, this is their Super Bowl. For the Cowboys, this is the one game where they walk the fine line of trying to keep starters "game ready" before the two week layoff while also getting the back-ups some work. Long story short, the Eagles want to win and are highly amped up about finishing this season on a high note for rookie QB Carson Wentz, first year head coach Doug Pederson, and the entire organization and it's rabid fan base. Remember this is a big revenge game for the Eagles too because they never should have lost the game in Dallas earlier this season. They had a huge lead but then relinquished it and lost in overtime. It is time for payback here. That payback means a lot to the Eagles while the Cowboys have "bigger and better things" to look ahead too. Dallas could care or less about this game! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-31-16 | Ohio State v. Clemson +2.5 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Playoff Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB 10* Top Play Clemson Tigers (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes in Fiesta Bowl @ University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ @ 7 ET - I am not going to waver from my pre-season prediction which did have Clemson in the national championship game. That said, I do expect them to grab the outright victory in this match-up but will certainly take any and all available points here! Both the Buckeyes and the Tigers lost a lot of key talent from last season's teams and yet all the younger players certainly gained valuable experience this season as the year went on and each team is here after losing only 1 game apiece this entire season. The key for Clemson is their dynamic offense as they did return 8 starters on that side of the ball and QB Deshaun Watson has delivered another huge season. The Tigers have the much better passing attack in this game (they average 333 passing yards per game whereas the Buckeyes average only 221 passing yards a game). Certainly I have a ton of respect for coach Urban Meyer and his long-term success (including bowl games) in his career. However, the Buckeyes loss to Penn State (coupled with the fact that the Nittany Lions won the Big Ten Championship) means Ohio State truly shouldn't even be here. Trust me I understand how the system works but a team that won the conference (PSU) and also beat the Buckeyes head to head is the team that should represent in the playoffs. I am not saying that this is on the minds of OSU, not in the least. I am just saying that "turnabout is fair play" and the Buckeyes didn't deserve to get their ticket punched to the playoffs and I look for the bounces of the ball to go Clemson's way in this one. The Tigers can certainly "make their own breaks" in this one as the speed of their offense all over the field is going to give the vaunted defense of OSU plenty of trouble in this one. Also, don't underestimate the strength of the defensive line of of the Tigers. Their rush defense is arguably just as good as that of the Buckeyes and, in terms of QB pressure, Clemson had 46 sacks this season while Ohio State only had 26 sacks. Looking at their final 7 games of the season, the Buckeyes did have 2 blowout wins but the other 5 games included a pair of overtime victories, a pair of wins by a combined total of only 5 points, and the loss to the Nittany Lions. This Ohio State team is clearly not the dominant team of old and I like Clemson (only loss was by a single point in a game they out-yarded Pitt by 166 yards) to be in this one all the way and to get the W thanks to their potent offense leading the way. The Tigers are on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog and long-term it is a 58-35 ATS run in the underdog role. 10* CLEMSON plus the points Saturday night |
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12-31-16 | Bucks v. Bulls -2.5 | Top | 116-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator Top - Rickenbach NBA 10* Chicago Bulls (-) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - Both teams were in action yesterday but this back to back spot is offering multiple edges for the Bulls. For one thing, Chicago's game started 4 hours earlier than the Bucks game yesterday. Also, the Bulls are now back home where they've won 10 of 16 games this season while Milwaukee is still on the road where they've lost 9 of 14 this season. The Bulls also have revenge on their minds here and it is "significant" revenge. What I mean by that is that Chicago was thoroughly embarrassed by the Bucks in a home and home set two weeks ago. Not only did the Bulls lose by double digits at Milwaukee but they then lost the rematch in Chicago by an embarrassing score of 95-69. The Bulls attempted 10 more shots from the field than did the Bucks in that game but Chicago "couldn't hit the broad side of a barn" in that game as they shot a ridiculous 30.4% from the field. You can bet (literally!) that the Bulls will respond in a big way Saturday. Chicago is 3-0 ATS this season (and 12-5 ATS the past 3 seasons) when they are a home favorite of 3 points or less! The Bucks are 1-5 (SU and ATS) when playing the 2nd game of a back to back this season. Also, the past three seasons combined, Milwaukee is just 16-31 SU when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. That said, laying the small number with the revenge-minded Bulls is absolutely the way to go here. 10* CHICAGO |
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12-31-16 | Temple +1 v. UCF | Top | 53-77 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
Philly's Finest Top - Rickenbach CBB Game #575 Saturday - 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) @ Central Florida Knights @ 4 ET - Central Florida is currently playing with only six scholarship players because they have a number of transfers having to sit out and then they're also dealing with a couple of key injuries. The Knights are currently without Chance McSpadden and leading scorer BJ Taylor. While UCF is off of a win in their AAC opener, they had the benefit of facing a Tulane team that is now 3-10 on the season and easily the worst team in the conference. Temple is 0-1 in conference action after their loss to open up the AAC schedule so they'll be fired up to get back on track here. They shot horribly in that game but, keep in mind, they played Cincinnati and the Bearcats are one of the top teams in the conference. Overall, the Knights have the better record so far this season but the Owls have played the tougher schedule. Also, Temple has gone 4-0 the last 2 seasons against Central Florida. When off of a game where they scored 60 points or less, the Owls have gone 14-5 SU the past three seasons. This line is right around a pick'em so that trend certainly fits here and Temple is fired up after the ugly loss at Cincinnati. This game is expected to be a grind it out, low-scoring affair and UCF is only 2-5 SU in games with a posted total in the 120s while Temple has gone 18-8 SU the past three seasons in such games. Also, in home games with a total in the 120s, Central Florida is 0-3 ATS the past 3 seasons. More of the same here and the hungry Owls get the W over the short-handed Knights. 10* TEMPLE |
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12-31-16 | Washington +14.5 v. Alabama | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Playoff Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB 8* Washington Huskies (+) vs Alabama Crimson Tide in Peach Bowl @ Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA @ 3 ET - Similar to Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder, Washington head coach Chris Peterson has always enjoyed special success (and almost seems to relish) when in the role of an underdog. Peterson certainly has his wish here as he and the Huskies are huge underdogs against Alabama and are basically being given "no chance" to upset the Crimson Tide by most prognosticators. While I am certainly not calling for the outright upset here I am saying that the 2 TD spread should prove to be far too generous. Peterson, who of course was with Boise State before coming to Washington, has gone 6-3 SU (and ATS) in bowls. This includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark for Peterson as a dog and 2 of those bowl ATS victories as dogs were outright upsets! After the Huskies lone loss this season, they responded by winning their final 3 games of the season by a combined score of 130 to 45. Two of those teams had combined records of 18-5 at the time Washington played them and those opponents were certainly two of the top teams in the PAC-12 this season. Now much is being made of the strength of the SEC and that the Huskies have no chance against an SEC foe. However, the SEC teams have gone just 3-4 so far in these bowls and the only win that came by double digits was Tennessee yesterday and they played a Nebraska team without their star QB (and others) so the big Vols win was not a shock. Certainly the Crimson Tide are not just "any" SEC team but, keep in mind, these teams that have under-performed in the bowls include the same type of SEC teams that Alabama beat to get to their 13-0 record. The Crimson Tide did allow 400+ yards of passing to Arkansas and Ole Miss in the regular season and Huskies QB Jake Browning has had a tremendous season. Washington had 300+ yards of passing in 5 of its last 7 games before it simply relied on its ground game to dispatch Colorado in the PAC-12 Championship Game. The Huskies aerial attack can absolutely keep them in this game and the Washington defense allowed just 17.2 points per game and 316.2 yards per game this season. Most everyone is expecting a complete thrashing here but they are underestimating the coaching ability of Peterson and the talent level that this veteran group (returned 15 starters this year) of Huskies has fired up and ready to for this big game opportunity. 8* WASHINGTON |
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12-31-16 | Hofstra v. Delaware +6.5 | 58-56 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #552 Saturday - 8* Delaware Blue Hens (+) vs Hofstra Pride @ 2 ET Saturday - This line opened up with Hofstra -3 but is now all the way up to a -6 in some spots this morning. I completely understand the move as Delaware is coming off of a 7-23 season and Hofstra has been hammering the Blue Hens in recent meetings. However, the Pride could be a little "rusty" here as they haven't played since the 22nd. Conversely, Delaware got back in action, after the Christmas break, by crushing Iona on Wednesday. The Blue Hens were a double digit dog in that game and won the game outright...very nearly by double digits as it ended up a 19 points cover for Delaware. Certainly the Blue Hens have a ways to go but they are still under-valued at this point so far this season. Keep in mind they are 7-6 on the year so they've already equaled last season's win total. A big key has been a couple of key contributors that were not expected to be as "ready" as they have been. Freshman guard Ryan Daly is their leading scorer and Chivarsky Corbett has returned from an ACL injury and been a solid contributor as well. These players have joined returning starters Cazmon Hayes and Anthony Mosley and George Washington transfer Darian Bryant to give Delaware a strong core group of 5 players all capable of scoring double digits in each game. Corbett did miss Wednesday's game but is probable for this afternoon's game. The Blue Hens are 5-0 SU at home this season and also 3-0 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. The Pride are on a 7-14 ATS run in games with posted total in the 140s. Also, Hofstra is 1-4 SU their last 5 when playing with 7 or more days of rest between games. 8* DELAWARE |
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12-30-16 | Florida State v. Michigan -7 | Top | 33-32 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
#1 Bowl Top Side - Rickenbach CFB 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (-) vs Florida State Seminoles in Orange Bowl @ Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL @ 8 ET Friday - Many seem surprised to see Michigan as a TD favorite over Florida State in this match-up. As a result, it also seems that the Seminoles are an extremely popular choice in this game. Certainly the dogs have dominated the bowls thusfar but what I see in this match-up is a game that will be dominated by the defense of the Wolverines. Michigan allowed just 12.5 points per game and only 252.7 yards per game this season. The Wolverines allowed only 280 yards per game in their two losses this season. Compare this with Florida State's three losses where their porous defense allowed over 500 yards in every single game! The Noles also are the much more banged up team heading into this bowl game as one can plainly see by comparing the two injury reports of these teams. All of Michigan's wins this season came by a double digit margin and fiery head coach Harbaugh is hungry (and has his team hungry) after that tough OT loss to Ohio State that prevented "bigger things" for the Wolverines. Can you imagine the pent up anger and frustration that this Wolverines defense is about to unleash on the Seminoles in this game? This is a fired up team and I also expect a big game from a much healthier Wilton Speight (QB) in this game for Michigan. It's amazing he even tried to play against Ohio State with the shoulder injury. He's had 5 weeks since then to heal up and a solid Wolverines ground game will also keep the FSU defense off balance. Don't be fooled by the solid season-ending performance of FSU as they faced 3 weak offenses. This is an FSU defense that, prior to that 3-0 ATS run had given up 450 yards or more in 5 of their 7 prior games and the two games they didn't were one played in a hurricane and one played against the weak offense of Wake Forest. Make no mistake, the Seminoles defense is vulnerable here and the Wolverines defense is anything but! Look for the Michigan D, their solid edges in the trenches, their special teams advantage, and their high level of motivation to prove to be the big keys in this one. FSU is on a 1-4 ATS run in games played on a neutral field. The Wolverines are 5-2 SU and ATS in games played after a loss to a conference rival. 10* MICHIGAN |
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12-30-16 | Nets +8.5 v. Wizards | Top | 95-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
The Game of the Month - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET Friday - The Wizards Bradley Beal injured his ankle in Washington's most recent game and he's listed as doubtful for tonight's game. The Wizards also are in a "flat spot" here as they are off of a back to back wins and have a tough team (Houston) on deck and could easily overlook the Nets here. That is particularly true because Washington has won each of the past 4 meetings between these teams. A flat Wizards team could be upset here as Brooklyn very nearly upset Chicago in their most recent game and the Nets did upset Charlotte in their prior game. Since Christmas, Brooklyn has come out with extra energy and motivation and they're surely going to again be highly motivated here after they "let one slip away" in their two point loss to the Bulls Wednesday plus the Nets have the revenge angle in their favor here. That is significant here because Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Wizards, as a home fave of 6.5 to 9 points, are on a 7-11 ATS run. 10* BROOKLYN |
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12-30-16 | Bulls v. Pacers -4 | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA 8* Indiana Pacers (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 4:05 ET Friday - Revenge game for the Pacers as they lost at Chicago on Monday. Indiana has been mired in a losing slump but if you look closely at their recent schedule, most of their games have been on the road. The Pacers are a different team when they are at home and they've gone 11-5 on their home floor this season while the Bulls have only gone 6-10 on the road. Of course we need Indiana to not only win this game but also cover the point spread here. The odds are in our favor in that regard as the Bulls are only 1-4 ATS this season (and 8-18 ATS the past three seasons) as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Pacers are 24-13 ATS the past 3 seasons in divisional games and they get the job done in this revenge spot Friday afternoon. 8* INDIANA |
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12-30-16 | West Virginia +1 v. Oklahoma State | 92-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
ESPN2 Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Friday 8* West Virginia Mountaineers @ Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 4 ET - This is a significant revenge game for coach Bob Huggins and the Mountaineers. They were knocked out of the Big Dance by 14th seeded Stephen F Austin last spring. Why does that matter here? Because Oklahoma State is now coached by the former Lumberjacks coach, Brad Underwood. Certainly West Virginia (nor coach Huggins) have forgotten about the 70-56 dismantling they suffered at the hands of coach Underwood's team in March. It is time for a little payback here and the line (right around a pick'em) is certainly "ripe for the picking" in this one! Even though both teams are off to great starts this season (and I must say it is impressive what coach Underwood has done with a Cowboys team in rebuild mode) it gets "real" now as Big 12 conference play gets underway and this ranked Mountaineers team wants to make a statement and they have the depth and talent to do just that! The biggest difference between these teams is that West Virginia is allowing only 58.2 points per game while Oklahoma State is allowing 77.4 points per game! The Mountaineers have a long-term SU record of 19-2 in their games against teams allowing 77 points or more per game. West Virginia's offense has been strong this season and they are averaging 91.8 points per game. That is significant here because, even though the Cowboys offensive production has also been big early this season, OSU is 3-13 SU the past three seasons when facing teams averaging 77 points or more per game. So we have combined angles of 32-5 working in our favor but, truly with the revenge angle (coaches) and the more veteran and deeper team, we have all the key edges in this one. 8* WEST VIRGINIA |
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12-30-16 | North Carolina +3 v. Stanford | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
1st of 3 star rated Bowl Picks Friday. The other 2 are 10* Top Plays. Here is the 8*: Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB 8* North Carolina Tar Heels (+) vs Stanford Cardinal in Sun Bowl in El Paso, TX @ 2 ET - The Cardinal finished up the season winning 5 straight games so they certainly appear to be the "play on" team here based on momentum. However, those 5 wins came against a 5-7 team, a pair of 4-8 teams, and a pair of 3-9 teams. In fact, the only challenging opponents that Stanford has faced in their last 10 games were Washington and Washington State. The Cardinal got blasted by a combined 86-22 in those games. While the Tar Heels are without RB Elijah Hood in this game (medical reasons), the decision on the part of Stanford's Christian McCaffrey to "skip" this game because he is preparing for the NFL draft is the bigger blow! Not only does that hurt the Cardinal mentally, it truly crushes an offense that is otherwise "pedestrian" anyway! Stanford just does not move the ball well and QB Keller Chryst is more of a "game manager" QB who is just asked to not make mistakes while the Cardinal try to pound away with their ground game. I am well aware of the Tar Heels defense being a weakness but we've seen time and time again in this bowl season that lesser defenses have been able to rise to the occasion and shut down sub-par offensive units. North Carolina is not as impacted by losing Hood for this game because their offense revolves around QB Mitch Trubisky anyway and he has a 28-4 TD-INT ratio. He and the Tar Heels are very hungry for this bowl win and they went 8-3 this season after losing their season opener and one of their losses came by just a single point. After losing to NC State in their season finale, look for North Carolina to come up big in the Sun Bowl. The Heels went 4-1 SU against teams with a winning record this season and I look for them to drop the Cardinal to 0-3 SU and ATS in games against teams with a winning record this season. 8* NORTH CAROLINA |
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12-29-16 | Oklahoma State +3 v. Colorado | Top | 38-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
Bowl Insider Top Play Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) vs Colorado Buffaloes in the Alamo Bowl @ the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX @ 9 ET Thursday - The Cowboys certainly have more bowl experience. This is the Buffaloes first bowl since 2007 whereas Oklahoma State is in its 11th straight bowl. Certainly OSU is looking to atone for last year's poor result in the Sugar Bowl as they lost 48 to 20 to Ole Miss. There are some key match-up edges here. Even though the Buffaloes pass defense was fantastic this season, they lost their defensive coordinator heading into this bowl game as Jim Leavitt took a job in Oregon. The Buffs defense is going to be kept off balance because the Oklahoma State offense is so well-balanced. On the ground they have the elusive speedster in Justice Hill and then the pounding punisher in senior Chris Carson. Their ground game will open things up for the aerial attack on the Colorado defense and OSU QB Mason Rudolph has thrown for 25 TD's and just 4 INT's this season. Overall, Oklahoma State averages nearly 500 yards of offense per game. Even though the Cowboys lost at Oklahoma to wrap up the regular season, they gained over 400 yards. Comparing that to Colorado' last game, the Buffaloes were held to just 163 yards of offense in the Pac-12 Championship game where they were blasted by Washington. The Cowboys have the edge not only on offense but also special teams and there are a lot of OSU fans in Texas...much more than Colorado and, as a result, the site edge here (in San Antonio) also goes to Oklahoma State. The Buffaloes are 0-3 ATS when off of a bye week and the Cowboys are 3-0 ATS this season in games where the line is between +3 and -3. Getting the +3 here with OSU is simply an added bonus as I do expect them to win outright. Grab the +3 here just in case though. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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12-29-16 | Evansville +7.5 v. Illinois State | 50-62 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #535 Thursday - 8* Evansville Purple Aces (+) @ Illinois State Redbirds @ 8 ET Thursday - The Purple Aces certainly lost a lot of key cogs from last year's roster. However, Evansville is still a quality team with a quality coach and they had some key replacements coming in including a transfer player that had sat out last season and now has been one of the Aces top contributors so far this season. What has impressed me about Evansville is that they've come out this season like a team with something to prove (due to all the roster turnover) and after an early adjustment phase they've certainly turned things up a notch. The Purple Aces are entering their conference opener on a 7-game winning streak. Also, two of the four losses that Evansville had earlier this season came by 4 points or less. Here we are getting a sizable amount of points considering that the Redbirds, though considered a top MVC team for this season, are only 6-4 so far on the young season. Illinois State did not shoot the ball well in the Hawaii tourney they just returned from and if they're shots aren't falling early in this game they could be in trouble here. The Purple Aces, thanks to a 7 game winning streak, are a very confident team and they've drained at least 46% of their shots from the field in 10 of their last 12 games! Also, the Aces were only held under 68 points twice in their last dozen games. Confident, scoring a lot of points, and out for revenge (Evansville lost at home to Illinois State last season plus the Redbirds knocked them out of the MVC tourney 2 years ago), the Purple Aces make for an ideal "dangerous" underdog! I am grabbing all the points I can get here! 8* EVANSVILLE |
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12-29-16 | Tennessee +9.5 v. Texas A&M | 73-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #539 Thursday - 8* Tennessee Volunteers (+) @ Texas A & M @ 7 ET Thursday - Head coach Rick Barnes is in his 2nd season at Tennessee. Though the Volunteers are certainly still rebuilding, they did notch a few victories over SEC rivals like Florida, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt last season. Though not a traditional SEC rival like those, Texas A & M is a team that absolutely has the full attention of coach Barnes. Keep in mind, he was at Texas for 15+ season before coming to Tennessee so he knows the Aggies very well as the Longhorns and Texas A & M are the biggest rivals in the state of Texas due to their many years together in the same conference. That said, even though a few things have changed, you can bet that this game, especially with it being the SEC opener, means an awful lot to coach Barnes and he's had a full week to prepare for this match-up. The Aggies have a slightly better record than the Vols so far this season but Tennessee has played the tougher schedule. Also, the Volunteers are 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season and 4-1 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. The Vols are also a perfect 3-0 ATS in road games this season. The Aggies are only 1-3 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record and they are 0-2 ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The Vols battled hard at home last season against Texas A & M but fell just short in the 4-point loss. Barnes almost got the W against his long-time rival in that match-up. Even if he does fall short again, look for the Volunteers to at least get the cover here. 8* TENNESSEE |
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12-29-16 | South Florida -10 v. South Carolina | 46-39 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator Thursday - Rickenbach CFB 8* South Florida Bulls (-) vs South Carolina Gamecocks in Birmingham Bowl @ Legion Field in Birmingham, AL @ 2 ET Thursday - There is a tremendous energy around the South Florida football program right now. They have a new head coach, Charlie Strong, coming in from Texas. They have a true 2017 Heisman candidate in QB Quinton Flowers who is a tremendous dual-threat quarterback with his running ability. The Bulls have scored at least 30 points in 16 straight games for the longest streak in the nation. That is significant here because the Gamecocks where held to 14 points or less in more than half of their games this season. I certainly respect the fact that South Carolina is an SEC program but looking at strength of schedule on the season, their schedule was truly not much tougher than the one South Florida played. I also know that dogs have dominated these bowls but this is a game where I expect a large favorite with too much offensive firepower (as well as motivation) to simply run away on the scoreboard. USF is fired up about the opportunity to play an SEC team in this bowl game and they want to make up for last year's loss to Western Kentucky in the Miami Beach Bowl. The Bulls are on a 13-5 ATS run as a favorite. The Gamecocks went 1-3 ATS in non-conference action. South Carolina is a young team and this veteran Bulls team has a powerful enough offense (515 ypg) to be the difference maker here. The weakness of USF is on defense but they're fired up here, will be flying all over the field, and the young Gamecocks offense averaged a putrid 336 yards per game this season. 8* SOUTH FLORIDA |
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12-28-16 | Suns +15 v. Spurs | 98-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA 8* Phoenix Suns (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET - When you win the way the Spurs did on Christmas Day (down late in 3rd but then rally in 4th quarter to win big) it can mask other issues. The fact is that San Antonio shot the ball "lights out" in that game as they started out insanely hot from the field and then finished ultra hot from the field as well. The problem is that San Antonio did allow the Bulls to not only get back in that game but also take that lead rather late through the third quarter. Of course all is forgotten when you go on to win the game by 19 points but San Antonio has been quite "leaky" on defense and they just haven't had to "pay for it" yet because they've been so hot on offense. Though I don't expect the Suns to win this game outright I certainly feel the points are far too much. Yes, Phoenix is off of a loss at Houston but they have outrebounded 4 straight opponents and hustle play like that could play a key role in making the Suns a dangerous dog tonight. The Spurs aren't going to keep knocking down shots at the ridiculous clip they did against the Bulls and with being happy with a Christmas Day win and with having a tougher foe (Portland) on deck, this is a bit of a "sandwich spot" for San Antonio where I don't expect them to go all out nor to be fully focused. The Spurs have allowed their last 3 opponents to combine for over 45% from the field but they haven't felt the pain of that because their own offense has been ridiculously hot. Plain and simple, Phoenix is hungrier here and these points are way too big. The Suns are 8-4 ATS this season (and 38-23 ATS the past three seasons) when off of a loss by 10 points or more. 8* PHOENIX |
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12-28-16 | Iowa +13.5 v. Purdue | Top | 67-89 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - CBB Game #755 Wednesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 8:30 ET - Many of you will recall that I used Iowa against Iowa State about 3 weeks ago in a game where nobody wanted the Hawkeyes as certainly it was the Cyclones that "made sense" in that match-up. The same key aspect in that game applies in this one as well. Even though Iowa is likely to have a "down year" and not be the team they've been in recent seasons, this is still an in-state rivalry game and there is no doubt that the Hawkeyes are going to bring their "A game" in this one. Iowa certainly has been playing solid defense of late and that has helped lead the way to a 5-game winning streak and 4-0-1 ATS run. The Hawkeyes have held 4 of their last 5 opponents (including Iowa State!) under 36% from the field. While I do expect Purdue to get revenge here (they lost both match-ups last season), I do not expect the Boilermakers to win by a sizable margin. With this line having jumped from 11.5 to 13.5 this morning, it has made this situation even stronger in favor of the big road dog. Purdue's only challenging games this season (where they weren't a double digit fave or it was not a non-lined game) have seen the Boilermakers go just 1-2 with a 5-point win over Notre Dame and losses to Louisville and Villanova. Now, of course, I am not saying that the Hawkeyes are on par with those teams but the point is that this is a quality Big Ten basketball program that is going to bring a huge effort and that will very likely lead to this one playing out to a similar margin (5 points) seen in the Fighting Irish game. By the way, the Boilermakers did allow at least 48% from the field in all 3 of those games. The Hawkeyes have really stepped up their defensive efforts recently (spurred on by the win over Cyclones) and I look for that trend to continue here. Purdue has a long-term 4-8 ATS mark in games with a posted total in the 150 to 159.5 range. The Hawkeyes enter on a 4-0-1 ATS run and stay hot at the cashiers window tonight! 10* IOWA |
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12-28-16 | Nets +9 v. Bulls | Top | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET Wednesday - Both teams are off of wins but look for the Nets to be the more motivated team here. After all, the Bulls beat a division rival (Indiana) and will be facing the Pacers again on Friday. That said, it is difficult for Chicago to get excited about this game. As for Brooklyn, you better believe they'll be ready. They were thoroughly embarrassed by 30 points AT HOME on Halloween night. When a team takes a beating like that in front of their home fans they don't forget about it. That was a "special" home loss to say the least but the Nets numbers are good even in "non-special" situations. Brooklyn is 6-2 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge! As for the Bulls, they finally stepped up on defense (against Indiana) Monday and got the win. However, Chicago is 1-2 ATS (and 0-3 SU!) this season when off of a game where they held their opponent to 85 points or less. The Bulls are also known for "playing down" to the level of their competition and have gone 41-58 ATS their last 99 games against teams with a losing record. The Nets want this game. The Bulls are already looking ahead to another match-up with Indiana. Grab the generous points with the hungry big dog here. 10* BROOKLYN |
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12-28-16 | Nebraska v. Indiana -15.5 | 87-83 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Big Ten Network Smash - CBB Game #738 - Rickenbach 8* Indiana Hoosiers (-) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 6:30 ET Wednesday - While the points look big here, keep in mind this is Indiana's Big Ten opener and they have a conference game on deck. In other words, there will be no let-up from the Hoosiers in this one and, that said, they have the talent level and depth to absolutely bury Nebraska. Indiana has 10 wins this season and 8 of those came by a margin of 22 points or more. The only two victories that the Hoosiers have had by smaller margins came against North Carolina and Kansas. Of course those are two of the top programs in the nation so smaller victory margins in those games was understandable. That said, the Cornhuskers should be another team to join Indiana's "22 point club" as the Hoosiers get another win by at least that margin here. Indiana averages 89 points per game this season and the Huskers average 69 points and just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up here with all the weapons that the Hoosiers have. Most concerning for Nebraska here is that their defense has regressed. Even though their last 4 games have included easy opponents like Southern U and Gardner Webb, the Huskers have allowed more than 50% from the field against their last four opponents combined. With depth and with this being a conference opener, the Hoosiers should win this one going away and will never really take their foot off of the gas here. By the way, Indiana's D (38% from the field) has also been fantastic this season. The Cornhuskers are on an 18-35 ATS run against teams with a winning record and 0-3 ATS when playing with 7 or more days of rest between games. The Hoosiers are 5-2 ATS at home this season and on a 13-7 ATS run in December games. They have also won and covered each of the last 3 meetings between the teams. 8* INDIANA |
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12-28-16 | West Virginia v. Miami (Fla) -2.5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Russell Athletic Bowl ATS Blowout - Rickenbach CFB 8* Miami Hurricanes (-) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL @ 5:30 ET Wednesday - West Virginia is ranked. Miami is unranked. The Mountaineers went 10-2 on the season. The Hurricanes went 8-4 on the season. With that said, doesn't it look funny to see the Canes as the favorite in this one? Don't be fooled by the line as the fact is that Miami is the better team and when they win (8-4 SU) they also cover (8-4 ATS). Not only are did they go a perfect 8-0 ATS in their 8 SU wins this season, head coach Mark Richt has an incredible 94-45, 68% ATS mark in SU wins in his career. In this particular match-up, the Hurricanes have the edge on defense and special teams while truly the offenses are about equal. The Mountaineers gain more yards but the Canes score more points - a little more efficiency for Miami. As for the defense, West Virginia allowed nearly 500 yards per game in their last 5 games of the season. The Hurricanes only allowed 353.8 yards per game on the season. Miami also wrapped up the regular season allowing only 16 points per game in their last three games. West Virginia benefited greatly from turnovers late in the season. That helped keep points off the board but also masked the fact that the defense was constantly getting gouged for big yardage. The Hurricanes will be able to do plenty of damage here as they piled up yardage late in the season with plenty of big performances from QB Brad Kaaya during this stretch. He ended the season with a solid 23-7 TD-INT ratio. Miami has a long-term mark of 9-4 SU against Big 12 opponents while West Virginia is an ugly 10-22 ATS long-term against ACC opponents. The Mountaineers have lost 7 of their last 9 SU when they are an underdog while the Hurricanes are 19-6 SU the last 25 games in which they were a favorite and, as noted above, head coach Richt has a phenomenal ATS rate in games in which his teams get the SU win. Very low number here and I'll gladly lay it! 8* MIAMI |
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12-27-16 | Washington State v. Minnesota +10.5 | Top | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB 10* Top Play Minnesota Golden Gophers (+) vs Washington State Cougars in Holiday Bowl @ Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA @ 7 ET - We're getting extreme line value here because of the Minnesota suspensions that were then followed by a potential boycott by the Golden Gophers team. All that has simmered down and yet we now have a team getting double digits that originally opened up as less than a TD underdog in this game. Of course the result of all this is some great line value with a team that brings the physicality of a Big Ten unit to this match-up with a Pac 12 team that stumbled down the stretch. I do have a lot of respect for the Cougars offense but the Washington State defense is a definite weakness. Look for Minnesota's offense to take advantage of that and this is a Golden Gophers team that, prior to their loss at Wisconsin in the regular season finale, had not lost a game by more than 7 points this entire season. The Cougars have played the tougher schedule of these two schools this season but Washington State finished the regular season with back to back disappointing losses. The Cougars also didn't travel all that great this season...at least not well enough to warrant this large point spread here. Washington State went 3-2 away from home with only 1 win by more than 5 points. The Cougars last 3 games away from home produced an 0-3 ATS mark. Look for the Golden Gophers to rally around the entire "distraction" and possibly even get the upset here but certainly they should at least get the cover. The Cougars were only 1-3 ATS this season against teams with a winning record and also are on a 1-4 ATS run the past 3 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The Golden Gophers are on a 10-2 ATS run when off of a loss against a conference rival and they also went 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season. 10* Top Play MINNESOTA Tuesday |
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12-27-16 | Wake Forest v. Temple -11.5 | 34-26 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB 8* Temple Owls (-) vs Wake Forest in the Military Bowl @ Navy-Marine Corps Stadium in Annapolis, MD @ 3:30 ET Tuesday - Many will be hesitant to lay the big points here because of the Wake Forest defense. However, the Demon Deacons simply are not a very good football team. Their offense is horrible and the only win they had this season against a team that finished the year with more than 4 wins was a victory over Indiana. In that game Wake Forest actually was outgained by the Hoosiers by a margin of 611 to 352! So that right there (outgained by 259 yards!) is actually the Demon Deacons "big win" this season. Now I am well aware of the fact, of course, that Temple has made a coaching change heading into this one but Owls interim head coach Ed Foley will do just fine against Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson as Foley has known him for many years. In fact that actually adds a bit of "spice" to this match-up and the better offense (Temple 35 points per game in their last 12 games) won't hesitate to put up big points to pull away as this game goes on. The Demon Deacons only went 1-3 ATS in non-conference action and the lone cover was the "bogus" one against Indiana. Temple is on an insane 12-0 ATS run and they also want to atone for finishing last season on a down note as they lost to Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl. This Owls team finishes up a record-setting season the right way and has all the momentum here. 8* TEMPLE |
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12-26-16 | Lions +6.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher Monday - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET Monday - Certainly the Cowboys are "saying the right things" in terms of wanting to keep playing their starters and keep the momentum going even though they've now locked up the #1 seed in the NFC. However, I just don't see Dallas as being able to truly bring forth the high level of intensity necessary to knock off the Lions in convincing fashion on Monday Night Football. Detroit needs this win and will be the hungrier team. Also, the injuries to quarterbacks Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota Saturday have to heavily weigh on the minds of the Cowboys here. It is now that fine line between maintaining momentum but trying not to get anyone hurt that is in effect for Dallas here. The key value is not only in that plus the hunger of the Lions here, but also the fact that the Cowboys truly haven't been playing all that dominant of late. Dallas has failed to cover 4 straight games and their weakness is their pass defense while the strength of the Lions offense is their aerial attack. Detroit is on a 5-1 SU run and 4-2 ATS run and they did outgain their opponent in each of the two ATS losses but the problem was turnovers as they lost the TO battle 2-0 in each of those games. The Cowboys come into this game with 6 turnovers in their last 3 games and only twice in their last eight games have they won by a margin of more than 6 points. Detroit is 7-3 ATS in games played on turf, 3-0 ATS in Monday night football, and the Lions are 5-1 ATS versus the NFC East. The Cowboys are 7-12 ATS their last 19 games against teams with a winning record and also 10-21 ATS their last 31 games played on turf. The Lions were up 17-7 at halftime in a playoff game in January of 2015 in the most recent game between these teams. That match-up ended up being a 24-20 win for the Cowboys here in Dallas and the Lions have their sights set on payback in this one. 10* DETROIT LIONS Monday |
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12-26-16 | Suns +13 v. Rockets | 115-131 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA 8* Phoenix Suns (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET Monday - These teams just met last week in Phoenix and the Rockets won by 14 points. That is why it may seem a little surprising that the Rockets aren't favored by even more here in Houston as they now host the Suns. However, don't fall for the "trap" here. Houston is in a bad situational spot here. They have a big game with Dallas on deck tomorrow. Certainly it has been a tough season for the Mavericks but the Rockets and Mavs are divisional in-state rivals and so their games are always "big" for Houston. The Rockets come into this game having failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and the field goal percentage they've allowed has gotten gradually worse in each of their last 4 games. In other words, lax Rockets defense is starting to cost them and it is showing no signs of improving. That said, I like the hungry "nothing to lose" underdog Suns here as Phoenix has shot progressively better from the floor in each of their last 4 games. Coming off of a win (albeit against Philadelphia) is a confidence booster for the Suns and the road team has gotten the cash in each of the last 4 meetings between these teams. In fact, Phoenix has recorded an outright win in 2 of its last 3 visits to Houston and the Rockets have won 3 straight at Phoenix. Houston is 1-3 SU (and 0-4 ATS!) this season when coming into a game with 2 days of rest. Look for the Rockets to again struggle to find their rhythm after a layoff and the result here will be a game in which the Suns should stay within single digits throughout. 8* PHOENIX SUNS Monday |
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12-26-16 | Hornets v. Nets +7 | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA 8* Brooklyn Nets (+) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:35 ET Monday - Ugly home dog which is very attractive here in the first day after what was a Christmas break for most teams. Charlotte hasn't played since Friday and so I don't expect them to just hit the court "firing on all cylinders" on Monday after the lay-off. The Hornets are 0-5 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 210 points or more. Also, Charlotte has gone 1-6 ATS this season in their games against Atlantic Division opponents. Brooklyn is playing this game with home loss revenge as they lost here against the Hornets on November 4th and the Nets have gone 5-2 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. Brooklyn has covered 6 of the last 8 meetings between these teams and did get the cash in that early November meeting which also saw them installed as a sizable home dog. Charlotte is off of a big win over Chicago Friday and now has back to back divisional games on deck after this one. That makes this a true "sandwich spot" for the Hornets where they are off of a big game and have big games on deck and, therefore, could easily overlook a 7-22 Nets team. That is what I am counting on! 8* BROOKLYN |
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12-26-16 | Vanderbilt v. NC State -5.5 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Monday Top Bowl Play - Rickenbach 10* Top Play N.C. State Wolfpack (-) vs Vanderbilt Commodores in the Independence Bowl @ Independence Stadium in Shreveport, LA @ 5 ET Monday - Vandy might fall into that category of "just happy to be here" considering this is their first bowl in 3 years. As for NC State, they are looking to atone for last year's 51-28 Belk Bowl loss to Mississippi State. The Wolfpack did face a tougher schedule than Vanderbilt this season and NC State has outperformed the Commodores even though both teams enter this game at 6-6. Vandy has one of the weaker offenses in the nation and getting hot in their last 2 games of the season doesn't erase the fact that the Commodores were held to 17 points or less in 7 of their first 10 games this season. Also, Vanderbilt is going up against a solid NC State defense that is very strong against the run. The Wolfpack held 9 of their 12 opponents to 24 points or less this season. On offense, though their point totals weren't that impressive as the season wore on, NC State did averaged 282 passing yards per game in their 11 games not played in a hurricane. The reason I say that is the 41 passing yards against Notre Dame in the game played during Hurricane Matthew certainly should be taken out of the equation when evaluating the strength of this NC State offense. The aerial attack as a strength is very significant here because the Commodores weakness on defense is against the pass. Vandy gives up a lot of yard through the air and they don't get many sacks. NC State's defense more than doubled Vanderbilt's sack total for the year. Vandy is on a 4-7 ATS run in non-conference games the past three seasons and also is 1-3 ATS when off of a win against a conference rival. NC State is 12-2 SU (and 10-4 ATS) in non-conference games and also the Wolfpack produced a 5-1 ATS mark when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest between games and they are 8-1 ATS in games played on turf. 10* Top Play NC STATE Monday |
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12-25-16 | San Francisco +5 v. San Diego State | Top | 48-62 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Tourney Top Play - Rickenbach CBB 10* Top Play San Francisco Dons (+) vs San Diego State Aztecs in Diamond Head Classic @ Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, HI @ 8 ET Sunday - The Dons have certainly exceed expectations early this season and the way they've won their two games in this Diamond Head Classic certainly says a lot about this team. They beat Utah with a strong offensive performance (shot 52.5% and won 89-86) and then beat Illinois State with a huge effort on defense (held Redbirds to 30.3% and won 66-58). San Francisco is now 10-2 on the season and their two losses have come by 6 points or less. That said, getting 5 points with the Dons in the Diamond Head Classic Championship Game is the way to go here. San Francisco has played a similar strength of schedule to that of San Diego State and they are only 7-4 on the season. The Aztecs faced weaker competition in this tourney however as they were a 20 point favorite in one game and also were favored in the other. The Dons were a sizable dog in both of their games in this tournament. The Aztecs were on a 1-5 ATS run before their win Friday and the losses of Winston Shepard and Skylar Spencer have been tougher to overcome than most expected. The Aztecs are on a 2-11 ATS run in December games the past three seasons and the Dons are on a 6-1 ATS run in neutral court games the past three seasons. Give me the points with the highly motivated underdog (lost 2 prior meetings with Aztecs) that is surging with confidence right now. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-25-16 | Broncos v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 10-33 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Primetimer Punisher 10* - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Denver Broncos @ 8:30 ET Sunday - This is a revenge game for the Broncos as they lost a game to the Chiefs they never should have lost when Denver hosted Kansas City 4 weeks ago. However, even though the Broncos have revenge, they also are a team with a lot of issues. Those "issues" boiled over last week as there was some in-fighting on the team between offensive and defensive players after another pathetic effort for the Denver offense. The Broncos have now scored a total of just 13 points plus had 5 turnovers the past two weeks. The issue on Sunday night is that very windy conditions are expected in Kansas City and that means the running game will have some added importance in this one. Denver has run for a total of only 76 yards in their last two games and, overall, the Broncos have been held to 58 rushing yards or less in 4 of their last 7 games. The Chiefs are off of a 158 yard rushing performance against the Titans last week and that is the same Titans team against whom the Broncos could not run against and netted only 18 yards on the ground. With KC losing that game to Tennessee on a last second field goal, the Chiefs are fired up for their final home game of the regular season. Kansas City had won and covered 3 straight prior to that loss. The Chiefs are 3-0 ATS this season when off of a loss and also 4-0 SU (and 3-1 ATS) in divisional games this season. The Broncos are 1-4 SU and ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season and also an ugly 1-3 SU and ATS in divisional games this season. Those trends continue here. 10* KANSAS CITY |
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12-25-16 | Bulls +9 v. Spurs | Top | 100-119 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Christmas Day Top Side - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 5:05 ET - The Spurs have revenge here as they lost at Chicago earlier this month. However, this is a tough spot for San Antonio as they just got back from a West Coast road trip and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Additionally, by virtue of being at home on Christmas Day they have a few more distractions with all the Christmas festivities taking place at this time of year and having had the ability to be home with their families by virtue of being a host on Christmas Day. The last three games between these teams have been decided by an average of 5 points per game with no game decided by more than 8 points. This spread is inflated because the Bulls have struggled recently but I expect them to step up here off of the disappointing loss at Charlotte Friday. Last year on Christmas Day 4 of the 5 dogs got the cash and the lone fave that covered barely got the cash. It is difficult for teams to blow each other out in the difficult setting that is a Christmas Day game. That said, the value is with the underdog again in this one. This will be the Spurs 4th straight Christmas Day game and they've lost each of the prior three while the Bulls have won on Christmas Day each of the last three years. 10* CHICAGO BULLS |
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12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers -6 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Christmas PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 4:30 ET - The Steelers will ride the momentum of last week's comeback win over Cincinnati (trailed 20-6) to get some payback against the division rival Ravens. Baltimore got the win in the first match-up but that was QB Ben Roethlisberger's first game back after returning from injury and he clearly was not 100% yet. Big Ben did lead a late comeback in that game but it fell short as the Steelers had fallen into a 21-0 hole in that game. The Ravens have taken 4 straight meetings with the Steelers and overall have won 5 of the last 6 including a playoff game in Pittsburgh in January of 2015. Needless to say, the Steelers have plenty of pent up frustration they are going to unleash today as they look for payback and Pittsburgh comes into this game as the healthier team. After the loss to the Ravens earlier this season the Steelers then lost a heartbreaker to the Cowboys but they have since won and covered 5 straight games and are now one of the hottest teams in the league. The Ravens are off of a win over a fading Eagles team. Prior to barely notching that 1 point victory, Baltimore had allowed 294 passing yards per game in their previous 4 games. Look for Roethlisberger and company to attack the Ravens with great success early and often through the air Sunday. Baltimore is on an 0-3 ATS run as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Steelers are on a 10-1 SU (and 9-1 ATS) run in December games. Mild weather for late December and light winds with no precipitation will combined to allow one of the top offenses in the league (Pittsburgh) to hold the upper hand in this one. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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12-24-16 | Bengals +2.5 v. Texans | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL 8* Cincinnati Bengals (+) @ Houston Texans @ 8:25 ET Saturday - I realize Texans backers deserved a better fate last week as they thoroughly dominated Jacksonville statistically but only won the game by a single point as a 3 point choice over the Jaguars. However, Houston certainly has issues - most prominently the QB position of course - and the Bengals come into this game with nothing to lose and that makes for a dangerous late-season dog. Keep in mind, Cincinnati led the Steelers 20-6 last week before losing while the Texans were down 20-8 last week before rallying for the win over the Jaguars. The point is that there is some value here with the way the latter portions of last week's games involving these teams played out. Also, you can bet that the Bengals paid particular attention to how QB Savage engineered the comeback win for Houston last week when he came on in relief of an ineffective Osweiler. The point is that Savage may not find it so easy this week against a Bengals defense that had allowed just 14.8 points per game in their 4 games prior to allowing 24 to Pittsburgh last week. Of course the Steelers offense is light years ahead of the Texans so that is another important point to consider when looking at this game. Houston does have a solid defense but they have allowed 21.1 points per game in their last 6 games. In other words, it's going to be an all out war for the Texans just to win this game and while I'd love to have +3 in this game I still have no trouble backing the better offense at +2.5 and going against a QB (Savage) whose only NFL regular season action since 2014 came last week against a 2-12 Jaguars team. The Bengals are ticked off of about the loss to the Steelers and are 4-2 SU and ATS when off of a loss against a division rival. The Texans are off of that tight win over the Jags and have gone 0-4 ATS this season when off of a win against a division rival. 8* CINCINNATI |
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12-24-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Hawaii +7 | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Christmas Eve Bowl Special - Rickenbach CFB 8* Hawaii Warriors (+) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders in Hawaii Bowl @ Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, HI @ 8 ET Saturday - This was the one bowl game that had to wait awhile for a line to come out because of the collarbone injury for QB Brent Stockstill. The fact the line opened up at a 4.5 and then shot up to 7 (a lot of hype around the fact Stockstill is probable now for this game) is giving us great line value with a highly motivated home dog here. The Warriors are playing in their first bowl game since 2010 and get to enjoy playing this game in their backyard. Of course, Middle Tennessee State has the superior record this season but Hawaii has played the tougher schedule. Keep in mind, not only do the Warriors play in a tougher conference than do the Blue Raiders, they also played Power 5 Conference teams California, Michigan, and Arizona earlier this season. I like the fact that after a slow start this season, the Warriors got things going and QB Dru Brown really stepped up once he was handed the starting reins. Keep in mind, Hawaii needed a win over UMass in their season finale to earn a spot in this bowl and they put up 46 points in the win over the Minutemen. Like I said above, the Warriors really wanted to get a bowl berth after missing out on the post-season activities for 5 straight years. That means you have a motivated underdog here and note that MTSU head coach Rick Stockstill is only 1-4 SU and ATS in bowl games. The Blue Raiders lost by 2 TDs in the Bahamas Bowl last year and I don't expect this even longer road trip for them to work out well either! While Hawaii's defense is a weakness they have a history of outscoring teams in situations like this. The Warriors are a long-term 9-5 ATS (and 13-1 SU!) in home games with posted total of 70 points or more. The Blue Raiders have a long-term mark of 2-7 ATS in December games and 1-4 SU (1-3 ATS) in games where MTSU enters with 2 or more weeks of rest. The hungry home dog gets the job done here. 8* HAWAII |
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12-24-16 | Cardinals +8 v. Seahawks | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL 8* Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET Saturday - The Cardinals have had a disappointing season especially considering that expectations were high coming into this season. That said, they still hate the Seahawks and they know they let one get away earlier this season when they finished in a 6-6 tie with Seattle in Arizona. That said, it is time for a little payback Saturday and it doesn't matter what the records are when these teams match-up as the Cards are going to "bring it" when they face the Hawks. Arizona is on a 6-2 ATS run as a road dog in divisional action. Also, the Cardinals are 9-4 ATS long-term in Saturday games. They enter this game on a 2-game losing streak and have gone 2-0 ATS this season when they have entered a game on a losing streak of two or more games. Seattle's last two wins have come against teams that are a combined 10-18 but they've lost their other two games by a combined score of 52 to 15 in games where they were challenged by a quality opponent. I realize their tough record this season says otherwise but the Cardinals are a quality opponent and they'll fight all the way in this game at Seattle. Remember that when they matched up in Arizona earlier this season the Seahawks didn't even make it past mid-field until there were about 5 minutes to go in the game. The Cardinals give Seattle's offense headaches once again in this one as they look for the upset and that has me grabbing the big points in this one. 8* ARIZONA |
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12-24-16 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET Saturday - The Saints are an amazing team in dome games. With their huge win at Arizona last week they have averaged 33.1 points per game in their 8 games played in domes this season. That win over the Cardinals was a dome game and, of course, their first 7 home games are the other part of that equation. Saturday's game in the Superdome is the Saints home finale and I expect their high-octane offense to lead the way once again. The Buccaneers certainly are the better defense when comparing these two teams but they don't have the offense to keep up in this one. This is especially true with the Saints seeking revenge for an ugly 16-11 loss to the Bucs two weeks ago in Tampa Bay. New Orleans is looking to do anything they can to play "spoiler" here against a division rival and, having lost their most recent home game (to Detroit), the last thing the Saints want to have happen is to finish the season on a 2-game home losing streak. Tampa Bay is coming off of a grueling battle with Dallas last week and I expect them to be a little deflated from the loss to the Cowboys and they took a beating up front with the bruising offensive line of the Cowboys plus running back Ezekiel Elliott pounding away. The Saints will be the fresher team and certainly have the stronger offense. In road games with a posted total of 49.5 or more the Buccaneers have gone 1-4 SU and ATS long-term. Also, long-term mark on Saturdays for the Bucs is 3-10 SU and 2-11 ATS! The Saints are 8-3 ATS the past 3 seasons when playing with revenge. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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12-24-16 | Redskins v. Bears +3 | 41-21 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Washington Redskins @ 1 ET Saturday - The Bears have been playing hard and I don't expect that to stop in what is their final home game of the season. With their big comeback (lost but got inside the number) against the Packers last week, Chicago is now on a 5-0 (or 4-0-1) ATS run. They have the rest edge here as teams playing today on Saturday are certainly on a short week but it's tougher for the Redskins than the Bears as Washington hosted Carolina on Monday Night! The Skins are on a 1-3 ATS run (and 9-19 ATS long-term) when off of a Monday night game. Also Washington has not fared well as a favorite with a 5-9 ATS mark the past 3 seasons and a 58-91 ATS mark long-term. As a road favorite of 3 points or less the Redskins have gone 6-13 ATS. The Bears are a 5-2 ATS at home this season and 4-1 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record. Chicago also is on an 11-6 ATS run when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive losses. The Bears are hungry to win their home finale and knowing they can't make the playoffs they would love nothing more than to ruin the Redskins hopes of making the post-season as well. In doing so, Chicago would avenge their loss to Washington last December. I do expect the Bears to win this outright but will grab all available points. 8* CHICAGO |
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12-24-16 | Falcons v. Panthers +3 | 33-16 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL 8* Carolina Panthers (+) vs Atlanta Falcons @ 1 ET Saturday - Short week for both teams since this is a Saturday game and it is particularly short for the Panthers since they visited Washington on Monday Night. However, the fact that Carolina crushed the Redskins 26 to 15 and the fact that the Panthers have forced 8 turnovers has me backing the hungry and surging home dog in this one. The home team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. Each of the last two meetings have been in Atlanta and the Falcons won and covered both and that sets this up as a double revenge spot for the Panthers. The last time they hosted Atlanta they blasted them 38 to 0. I definitely respect the Falcons and their top ranked offense but this is a big division rivalry and Atlanta is going from facing the Rams and 49'ers the past two weeks (combined record of 5-23 this season) to facing a surging division rival that is playing "hungry" and has produced solid wins in back to back weeks. Keep in mind, the Falcons had lost 2 of their last 3 before those back to back wins against two of the worst teams in the league. Also, Atlanta is on a 7-17 ATS run as a favorite the past 3 seasons. The Panthers are on a 15-8 ATS run the past three seasons in games where their line ranges from -3 to +3. I am expecting the upset but grabbing the points here! 8* CAROLINA |
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12-24-16 | Titans v. Jaguars +5.5 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL 8* Jacksonville Jaguars (+) vs Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET Saturday - The Jaguars made news for firing their head coach after the 21-20 loss at Houston last week that was actually much uglier than the final score indicates. Even though that was another ugly loss for the Jags, I look for Jacksonville to respond after the firing and give a huge effort for interim coach Doug Marrone in what is the Jaguars final home game of the season. The Titans, of course, have plenty to play for and have won 3 straight games. Tennessee also is a very balance team with a solid offense and respectable defense. However, this is a bit of a "trap game" for the Titans because it's a divisional rival on the road and it is in front of a divisional showdown game with the Texans on deck for next week. Also, Jacksonville has simply been done in by turnovers and mistakes throughout this season. With Marrone taking over the reins and the players feeling some responsibility for Gus Bradley's firing right before Christmas, look for the Jaguars to give one helluva strong effort in this one. The key point about the turnovers and mistakes being a big issue for the Jags is further evidenced by the fact that their defense (321.4 ypg) ranks ahead of the Titans defense (358.4 ypg) but you would never know that by looking at the standings. Tennessee may indeed gut out a win here but I expect this to be a fiercely contested battle decided by 3 points or less. The Jaguars are going to go hard. Also, the Titans are on a 2-13 ATS run in divisional action, 3-17 ATS in games against teams with a losing record, and 28-49 ATS long-term when a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Jaguars are on a 6-3 ATS run in Saturday games and also 6-3 ATS when off of a loss to a division rival. 8* JACKSONVILLE |
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12-23-16 | Wizards v. Bucks -3 | Top | 96-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Game #712 Friday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - This is a perfect set-up. The Bucks have revenge here for a December 10th loss at Washington. The Wizards ended that game on a ridiculous 11-0 run and Milwaukee certainly hasn't forgotten about it. The Bucks are entering this game on a 2-game losing streak but the losses came against Cleveland and Milwaukee played the Cavaliers very tough in both of those games. This is the front end of a home and home between these teams so the Bucks are now fully focused on the Wizards and they catch them off of a big road win at Chicago. That sets this one up nicely and the home team has won each of the past four meetings between these clubs by 5 points or more. Even though Washington has fared surprisingly well this season (3-0 ATS) when off of an upset win as an underdog that is traditionally the type of victory that leaves a team flat in the next game. The Wizards entered this season having gone 9-17 ATS the past two seasons when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Bucks will be the hungrier and more motivated team as they seek revenge tonight. Milwaukee is 11-4 SU and ATS in home games with a posted total of 210 points or more and the odds makers are calling for another high-scoring one here as you can see. I'll gladly lay the small number with the Bucks who have also gone 3-1 SU and ATS this season as home fave of 3 points or less. 10* Top Play MILWAUKEE |
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12-23-16 | Ohio v. Troy -4 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
Dollar General Bowl - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Troy Trojans (-) vs Ohio Bobcats @ Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, AL @ 8 ET Friday - Even though Ohio University could be said to have the coaching edge here since Solich has so much experience and this will be Brown's first bowl game as a head coach, Solich's 7 trips to bowls with the Bobcats have resulted in only a 2-5 record. Certainly this venue favors Brown's Trojans as this game is being played down south and was a short trip for Troy. The biggest edge of all is the offense of the Trojans. While both teams have been solid on defense this season I am forecasting Troy to pull away in this one as their offense has been vastly superior to that of the Bobcats this season. Ohio University turned the ball over 7 times in their last 2 games played away from home while Troy State did not turn the ball over a single time in their final two road games of the season. Ohio U averaged just 302.3 yards per game in their last 3 games of the season while the Trojans averaged 438.6 yards per game on the season. Troy even put up 386 yards at Clemson earlier this season in a 6 point loss as a 5 TD underdog! The Trojans only other two losses were a turnover fueled loss to Arkansas State - whom, by the way, crushed Central Florida Saturday in bowl action - and a loss to Georgia Southern by just 4 points in their regular season finale. That loss cost the Trojans a share of their conference title and further motivates them to come up HUGE in this bowl game with a big win. Troy is on an 8-2 ATS run when off of a loss against a conference rival and the Trojans potent offense will prove to be too much for an Ohio U team that was held to 23 points or less in 7 of their last 11 games. 10* Top Play TROY minus the points in the Dollar General Bowl |
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12-23-16 | Warriors -7 v. Pistons | 119-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
NBA Game #705 Friday - Rickenbach 8* Golden State Warriors (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:35 ET - Even though this is a back to back spot for the Warriors I don't expect any let-up here. Golden State's win at Brooklyn last night made it 6 straight wins for the Warriors. Even though they have a date with Cleveland (NBA Finals rematch) on deck, the Pistons also have the Cavaliers on deck and that is a big division rival for Detroit. The problem for the Pistons here is that they beat Golden State in their last visit to the Motor City. That 18 point win in January for Detroit certainly has not been forgotten by the Warriors and it is payback time on Friday. The most concerning thing for the Pistons is not the fact that they have lost 4 straight games but the fact that they've lost those games by an average of 18.5 points per game and all 4 were decided by a double digit margin! 5 of the last 6 wins for the Warriors were decided by 8 points or more and their average margin of victory has been 19.3 points per game. You can see why I am expecting a blowout here and, again, the Warriors having the Cavs on deck is certainly a factor BUT Golden State has revenge on the Pistons and that will prove to be the most important factor tonight. The Warriors are 16-1 this season after a win by double digits and 13-1 in their games against teams with a losing record. Those are SU marks but you can see, from the numbers above, why I am expecting the Warriors to take this one by close to 20 points. Blowout time here. 8* GOLDEN STATE |
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12-23-16 | Bulls +4 v. Hornets | 91-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
NBA Game #701 Friday - Rickenbach 8* Chicago Bulls (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets will be the popular choice here as they had 2 full days off prior to this game and they have 2 full days off after this game. However, a scheduling situation like that (especially when coming off of back to back wins) can also lead to complacency and I look for the Bulls to be the far hungrier team in this one. Chicago is off of a loss and also has double revenge working in the favor here as they suffered a home loss to the Hornets in their most recent match-up also suffered a loss in their last visit to Charlotte too. The Hornets are on a 1-5 ATS skid and had lost 4 straight games before the aforementioned back to back wins. Look for the hungry and motivated Bulls to improve to 7-3 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. 8* CHICAGO |
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12-23-16 | Georgia v. Oakland +2 | Top | 79-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - CBB Game #742 Friday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Oakland Grizzlies (+) vs Georgia Bulldogs @ 7 ET - Nice situational aspects to this one. Oakland is off of a tough loss to in-state rival Michigan State. The Bulldogs are off of an easy win over in-state rival Georgia Tech. Georgia has had to travel. Oakland has stayed in their home state. The situational advantage is clearly in favor of the Grizzlies here and they also have revenge for a tight loss to Georgia in last year's meeting which also took place in December. The past three seasons combined the Bulldogs are an ugly 5-13 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Long-term that run is an ugly 48-77 ATS with those same parameters so, as you can see, it's no fluke. As for Oakland, the Grizzlies have gone 22-8 ATS the past three seasons combined when they are an underdog. In their games against teams with a winning record, Oakland has gone 27-13 ATS. The Grizzlies have shot surprisingly poor in back to back games that occurred on back to back days. Now, after a day of rest, Oakland will be ready with fresh legs and I look for their hot shooting (in the high 40's with FG % their first 10 games this year) to resume tonight at home. Note that the Bulldogs have been held to 64 points or less in 3 of their 4 games played away from Georgia this season. More of the same here. 10* Top Play OAKLAND |
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12-22-16 | LSU +10 v. Wake Forest | Top | 76-110 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
CBB Game #531 Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (+) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 9 ET - This line has gone from 8 to now double digits and the situation is offering exceptional value on the big dog. LSU only lost by 6 points to Wake Forest last season and yes this game is now on the road rather than at home but the fact is that the Tigers were outscored by 18 points on 3 pointers and that was the difference in the game. The Demon Deacons knocked down 8 threes in last season's match-up while LSU was held to an uncharacteristic 2 of 14 performance from three point land. Both teams come into this season's match-up with 8 wins but the Demon Deacons are off of a disheartening loss to Xavier in a game Wake Forest badly wanted. The fact is that Wake Forest is still a young team and that shows a lot of promise for the future but they still have struggled this season in games where they've had a chance to make a statement. They got the cover at Xavier but they lost the other two games both SU and ATS in which they've been dogs this season. Now, of course I realize Wake Forest is not a dog here but the point I am making is that they truly don't have a "signature win" yet this season as they also lost to Villanova and Northwestern. Now certainly LSU has had it's share of issues, including last year's frustrating finish but the fact is this is still a solid SEC program and I am going to challenge Wake Forest to not only win this game but to blow out the Tigers. I just don't see that happening. The Demon Deacons haven't proven capable of dismantling an opponent on the level of LSU yet this season and the Tigers have some added confidence from an 8-2 start this season and I expect them to stay within single digits all the way in this one. Overall, LSU has shot the ball just as well as Wake Forest this season and their defense has been even slightly better than that of the Demon Deacons. LSU is on a long-term run of 19-11 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and now this line has even moved up into double digits! A lot of points expected here and Wake Forest is 9-16 ATS (and 7-18 SU) in games with a posted total in the 150s. The Tigers are in this one all the way. 10* LSU TIGERS |
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12-22-16 | DePaul +3 v. Wyoming | 58-72 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
CBB Game #561 Thursday - Rickenbach 8* DePaul Blue Demons (+) vs Wyoming Cowboys in Las Vegas Classic @ Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, NV @ 8:30 ET - The Cowboys burned me recently when they had a surprising blowout win over Cornell but quickly came back down to earth with a non-covering win over Troy in their next game. Not including the blowout win over the Big Red, Wyoming's other 3 recent wins have come by an average margin of victory of just 5 points per game. The 2 opponents, besides Troy, were Montana and Colorado Christian. The point is that Wyoming is not exactly a dominant team and yet they sit at 9-2 on the season and are now laying points in a neutral site game against a quality DePaul team. The Blue Demons, though annually near the bottom of their conference, come from the Big East which is loaded with basketball talent. DePaul struggles in conference action as a result but non-conference action is a different story. The Blue Demons have a winning record in non-conference games the past 3 seasons combined and that includes a 7-4 mark so far this season. Wyoming is on a 13-22 ATS run as a favorite and the Blue Demons have seen forward Tre'Darius McCallum continue to "step up" this season and the backcourt tandem of Eli Cain and Billy Garrett, Jr (both 6'6 guards) will give the Cowboys some match-up issues. Cain has been shooting very well while Garrett continues to get to the free throw line with great regularity and this has given defenses problems trying to stop the drive but respect the perimeter shooting of DePaul's outside shooters. The Cowboys strong early start (albeit against weak competition) is masking the fact that this is still a team in rebuild mode. 8* DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS |
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12-22-16 | San Diego v. North Texas -6 | 69-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
CBB Game #528 Thursday - Rickenbach 8* North Texas Mean Green (-) vs San Diego Toreros @ 8 ET - San Diego has won 4 straight games and they have covered 3 straight games. However, the Toreros schedule has been weak this month. On the season, when a dog of 5 points or more, San Diego has lost all 3 games and all were double digit defeats with an average margin of defeat of 17 points per loss. The Mean Green are 6-2 SU at home this season and, like the Toreros, have played mostly a weak early season schedule. However, I like the fact that North Texas is catching San Diego in their first trip east of Arizona. The point is that this won't be an easy travel spot (especially right before Christmas) for a Toreros team that has only won 6 of 27 road games the past 3 seasons combined. The Mean Green, in home games with a posted total in the 135 to 139.5 range, are on a 3-1 SU (and ATS) run. North Texas won, but was disappointed with their effort on defense, Tuesday and the Mean Green will respond Thursday with a huge effort in what is their final game until New Year's Eve. 8* NORTH TEXAS |
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12-22-16 | Magic +5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 95-106 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month - NBA Game #501 Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks were down 8 to the Pacers at home on Tuesday and then finished the game on an insane 27-12 run to sneak out a 7 point win as, coincidentally, a 5.5 point favorite at home. New York is in the same point spread range for this one on Thursday and I see value in fading them after their miracle cover over Indiana Tuesday. The Knicks had lost 3 straight prior to that win. Also prior to that victory, 6 of New York's last 10 wins had been decided by 4 points or less. The point is that even when the Knicks do win it is often by the slimmest of margins and they're going to have their hands full with Orlando here. The Magic have won 2 of their last 3 meetings with the Knicks and that includes a visit to New York. However, Orlando enters this game with revenge on their mind after losing their most recent visit to New York - in February. The Magic are off of a confidence-boosting win at Miami Tuesday and that outright upset win brought them to 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games away from home as they truly have been road warriors over the past 5 weeks! The Knicks are on a long-term 13-28 SU run against teams from the Southeast Division and they'll have trouble just winning - let alone covering - in this battle with a motivated underdog. New York is in a bit of a sandwich spot here as they are off of the big comeback win over Indiana and then have a big division rivalry game with Boston on deck for Christmas Day. Great spot for the dangerous dog and I'll take it. 10* Top Play ORLANDO MAGIC |
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12-22-16 | Colorado State -15 v. Idaho | Top | 50-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Potato Bowl ATS Crusher Thursday - CFB Game #219 - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Colorado State Rams (-) vs Idaho Vandals in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl @ Albertsons Stadium in Boise, ID @ 7 ET - Snow is on the way but not until Friday morning. The Vandals could have used that Thursday night to possibly help them hang around in this game. While I expect both teams to score plenty with light winds and clear conditions expected in Boise tonight, I look for the Rams to pull away in the second half of this game. The points look to be asking a lot in terms of the cover here but, keep in mind, Idaho not only played a weak schedule but also their 8 wins did not include a victory over a single team with a winning record. The Vandals are on an 0-7 SU (and 1-5 ATS) run against teams with a winning record the past 3 seasons. They played one of the weakest schedules in the nation this season and I expect them to be exposed for that here. Colorado State's schedule this season was only moderately tough but they did go a perfect 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. Also, the Rams are 7-0 SU (and 5-2 ATS) the past three seasons combined when they are a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Colorado State has the much stronger rushing attack in comparing these two teams and also has the better pass defense. That said, once the Rams get a big lead they'll keep pounding away on the ground to wear down the Vandals defense and Idaho will struggle to keep up as they'll be forced to turn to the air against a respectable Rams pass defense. Colorado State head coach Bobo has enjoyed a rejuvenating season with the Rams and they're fired up for this bowl game after losing in last year's Arizona Bowl. With QB nick Stevens having a phenomenal season since replacing the injured Collin Hill, the Rams will put pressure on the Vandals defense all game long as the Colorado State offense is one of the best and most balanced units in the nation. Idaho, against the better teams they faced, gave up an average of 46.5 points per game. That was against Washington, Washington State, Troy, and Appalachian State. Look for Colorado State to pummel the Vandals D in this one and win this one by at least 3 TDs. Lay the big points. 10* COLORADO STATE |
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12-21-16 | BYU v. Wyoming +10 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Poinsettia Bowl Wednesday - CFB Game #218 - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (+) vs Brigham Young Cougars @ 9 ET - BYU has been pounded up to being a double digit favorite in this game and that is offering exceptional line value here. The Cougars have lost 3 straight bowl games and are playing in a bowl game for the 12th straight season. As for the Cowboys, the situation is much different and that has them much hungrier than Brigham Young for this game. Wyoming is playing in just their 3rd bowl game in the last 22 years! It is the Cowboys first bowl invite since 2011 and that has the entire program fired up about this opportunity. Wyoming head coach Bohl ended up being named the Mountain West coach of the year. He has done a fantastic job this season and though the bowl history is minimal for the Cowboys, head coach Bohl has gone 14-1 in FCS playoff games and led the way to 3 national titles at the FCS level. The man can coach and, keep in mind, of BYU's 8 victories on the year, only 1 came against a team that ended up having a winning record on the season. That was Toledo and the Rockets already lost their bowl game (to Appalachian State!) so that further adds fuel to the fire here in terms of what strong program has BYU actually beaten this season? The Cowboys have gone 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and, though the Cougars have the better D in this match-up, Wyoming has the edge on offense and that will keep them in this game throughout and it is quite possible that the Cowboys even spring the upset here. That 6-1 ATS mark as a dog included 5 outright upset wins. Dangerous dog here going against a BYU team that is on a 1-5 ATS run when playing with extra rest and the Cougars have not played since November 26th while the Cowboys were in action on December 3rd. Too many points here. 10* WYOMING |
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12-21-16 | Rockets -6 v. Suns | Top | 125-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Game #711 Wednesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) @ Phoenix Suns @ 9:05 ET - The Rockets are off of a brutally bad beat last night at home against the rival Spurs. Houston led the game by 13 points with under 5 minutes to go and yet still lost the game. Amazingly San Antonio hit 12 of 23 three pointers while Houston hit an insanely bad 6 of 38 three pointers last night. Needless to say the Rockets are ticked off about the loss last night as they know they let one get away that they should have easily won despite the statistical anomaly on three point shooting. Houston is facing the right team to get back on track as the Suns are only 8-20 on the season. Also, only 4 of the 20 losses that Phoenix has had this season have come by less than 6 points. Blowout defeats are normal for the Suns and they're hosting a Rockets team that is 11-3 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 210 points or more. Houston is also 11-3 ATS this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Also, even though this is a back to back spot for Houston, the Rockets have gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS when playing the 2nd night of a back to back. The Suns have covered just 3 of their last 12 games! Also, the road teams has won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams so home court has meant very little. That said, this is also a revenge game for the Rockets as they lost at home to the Suns in April in their most recent meeting. 10* Top Play HOUSTON |
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12-21-16 | Wizards +4 v. Bulls | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
NBA Game #707 Wednesday - Rickenbach 8* Washington Wizards (+) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - The Bulls are off of a 113-82 win over the Pistons but Chicago hit a ridiculous 60% from the field in that game. Prior to that insane shooting performance the Bulls had lost 3 straight games averaged only 87 points per game. As for the Wizards, they are coming off of a loss but previously had won 3 straight games and averaged 116 points per contest. That sets this one up perfectly as we get extra line value with the hotter team as the markets tend to have short-term memory and will be looking more at what just happened in the most recent game. Washington has revenge here for a loss at Chicago earlier this season and the Wizards had won 2 of the 3 prior meetings including a big road win at Chicago last season. Washington is 10-6 ATS this season when playing with revenge while the Bulls are 5-8 ATS when playing against teams with a losing record this season. Also, against Southeast Division opponents, Chicago is on a long-term 12-29 ATS run and they are off of that big win inside their division against Detroit. That makes this a flat spot for the Bulls while, conversely, the Wizards are coming in hungry off of a loss and plus playing with revenge! 8* WASHINGTON |
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12-21-16 | Oakland v. Michigan State -6 | Top | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
CBB Game #728 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (-) vs Oakland (Mich) Grizzlies @ 7 ET - The Grizzlies are 9-2 on the season and the Spartans are only 7-5. However, Michigan State has played a very tough early season schedule while Oakland has played a very weak early season schedule. That is skewing the market in this one and it has led to exceptional value with the Big Ten team who is far too proud to not bring a huge effort tonight against this Horizon League team. This is an in-state match-up and the Spartans have won all 13 meetings the past 20 years. That said, we're getting exceptional line value here with this one dropping all the way down to a -6 on Michigan State. Take a look at the last two meetings as an example of the disparity between these teams in terms of talent level and how that translates to how the games play out on the floor. In last season's meeting the Grizzlies actually led by 13 at the half. However, the Spartans then outscored them by 19 points the rest of the way. In the prior season's meeting Michigan State was up by 13 points at half and then outscored them by another 13 in the 2nd half in the 26 point win. The fact is that, even if one perceives this to be a "down season" for the Spartans, they have dominated the Grizzlies in the past and they don't have to be truly "dominant" for us to get the cash in this one. That has me raising this one to Top Play level. The Spartans are 4-2 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Michigan State will be ready to respond off of a loss to Northeastern Sunday and they have the rest edge over Oakland here as the Grizzlies just did battle with Northeastern yesterday! Plus the Grizzlies have another game on deck before Christmas (versus Georgia Friday) while this is the Spartans only chance (before the Christmas break) to respond off of a disappointing loss. 10* MICHIGAN STATE |
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12-21-16 | St. John's +13 v. Syracuse | 93-60 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
CBB Game #721 Wednesday - Rickenbach 8* St John's Red Storm (+) @ Syracuse Orange @ 7 ET - Syracuse just absolutely demolished Eastern Michigan on Monday 105-57. However, so often, after a blowout win like that where everything breaks your way, things can be come so much tougher in the next game. That said, tonight's game is truly the perfect set-up for such struggles as the Orange are facing a Red Storm team that has been a bit of a nemesis for them. That means Syracuse has two battles to fight tonight. One is fatigue as the Orange will be playing their 3rd game in 5 nights. The other battle is in trying to knock off a St John's team that has defeated them by 12 points in each of the last two meetings. As for Syracuse being able to absolutely dominate tonight and cover this large spread, note that the Red Storm have covered 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams. Also, the Orange have Tyler Lydon listed as questionable for tonight's game. Syracuse is only 4-8 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Also, St John's has been at their best in their toughest games this season as they have already covered 4 of 6 against teams with a winning record. More of the same for the Red Storm this evening. 8* ST JOHN'S |
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12-21-16 | Nebraska-Omaha +13.5 v. Pittsburgh | 75-94 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
CBB Game #771 Wednesday - Rickenbach 8* Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks (+) @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ 7 ET - Those who follow my CBB closely know there are two key reasons why I am fading the Panthers here. One is that Pittsburgh absolutely burned me badly this past weekend against Rice. Those who played it late got a win with Rice at +10.5 but it was a loss in my books for certain as I released it at +9.5 and what a burner it was. The Owls were in the game all the way and then Pitt did pull away late but still it was an 8 point game with about 30 seconds to go when Rice then missed BOTH free throws and Pitt followed by making BOTH free throws. It was the only way I could lose that play and I'll be damned if it didn't happen. Anyway, the other reason I am involved as followers know is that I do like taking high-scoring big dogs and Nebraska-Omaha certainly fits that description as they were top 5 in the nation for pace last year and are averaging 83 points per game so far this year. This gives us two chances to win a play like this essentially because part of it is that the Mavericks can score well enough to hang around all game long. However, part two is that even if the Mavs do get down by 15 to 20 points there is that opportunity for late scoring runs to get them in the backdoor. I expect Omaha to hang around in this game as Pittsburgh shot a ridiculous 64.4% from the field against Rice and yet still only won by 10 points. It is no fluke either as the Panthers also shot 54.5% from Buffalo a few games back and yet only beat the Bulls by 5 points. Of course the reason is that the Panthers D just isn't what it use to be and they will have their hands full with the Mavericks here. Omaha thrives in games like this with an 11-5 ATS mark in road games with a posted total in the 160s. The Panthers are on a 14-31 ATS run as a favorite and they are again over-priced here. 8* NEBRASKA-OMAHA |
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12-20-16 | Creighton -8 v. Arizona State | Top | 96-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
TV Top Play - CBB Game #541 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Creighton Blue Jays (-) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 9 ET - Laying 8 on the road against a Pac-12 team with a good reputation may seem a little "scary" on the surface but this is the perfect spot for the Blue Jays. They just survived a scare at home (against Oral Roberts) and snuck out a 1-point victory. Creighton doesn't play again until after Christmas and you can be sure that they learned the lesson in their tight win over Oral Roberts and now will be be prepared to blowout the Sun Devils in this one. Arizona State beat the Blue Jays at Creighton by a bucket last December so this is a revenge game for the road fave here. Creighton is the better team on defense and an inconsistent Sun Devils team went from bad to worse as their starting small forward recently left the team. The Blue Jays only scored 66 points against Oral Roberts Saturday and the only other two times they have been held under 80 points this season they responded with big wins in their next game and scored over 100 points in each contest. This included a big win over another Pac-12 team, Washington State, and that certainly is an indication of what to expect for Creighton tonight at Arizona State. The Blue Jays have covered 5 of 7 this season against teams with a winning record. The Sun Devils have gone an ugly 2-5 ATS against teams with a winning record. Revenge is on order tonight at Arizona State as the dangerous Blue Jays offense (53.8% from the field, 89.3 points per game, 44.4% from beyond the arc) responds off of a rare, poor performance. 10* Top Play CREIGHTON |
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12-20-16 | Spurs v. Rockets +1 | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
NBA TV Blowout Smash - NBA Game #516 - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Spurs are off of a huge win over the Pelicans on Sunday on a night in which Tim Duncan's jersey was retired. San Antonio now travels the short distance to face Houston and I don't think they'll have enough left in the tank to get past a Rockets team that has its sight set on revenge. The Rockets lost to San Antonio in early November and that was the 4th time in 5 games that the Spurs have defeated Houston. The Rockets will have something to say about that tonight as they come into this game having won 10 straight games and they are fired up about the fact that they haven't defeated the Spurs in Houston since Christmas of last year. The Rockets have played a tougher schedule than San Antonio so far this season and Houston is 9-2 ATS (and 10-1 SU) when playing with revenge this season. Also, the Rockets are 13-1 SU (and 12-2 ATS) when they are off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. I am aware of the Clint Capela injury for Houston but they are so highly motivated for this game and so well-rested (2 days off between games) that they'll make up for the absence of this gritty "hustle" player. The Spurs have covered 4 straight games but they've faced some weak opposition during this stretch and, prior to that, San Antonio had failed to cover 9 of its 13 prior games. The value here is with the home team as the line has now moved the other way to increase the value on a team that has revenge and a 10-game winning streak and home court all on their side! 10* Top Play HOUSTON |
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12-20-16 | Pacers +5.5 v. Knicks | 111-118 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Early Contrarian Crusher - NBA Game #509 Tuesday - Rickenbach 8* Indiana Pacers (+) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Pacers don't even have to win this game for us to cash our ticket. That said, it is certainly noteworthy that Indiana comes into this match-up having won 7 straight games against the Knicks. The Pacers are likely catching New York at the right time too because the Knicks have lost 3 straight games and just returned home from a grueling 5-game trip out west. Coming back east after a lengthy road trip to the west is often very tough on teams in the first game back home and I fully expect that to be the case with the Knicks tonight. New York's defense is fading of late as they have allowed 47% or better from the field in 4 of their last 6 games. As for the Pacers, they have allowed just 40.3% from the field in their last 5 games combined. Look for Indiana to continue to rely on solid D as they look to make it 8 straight over the Knicks tonight. New York is 5-13 SU (including 0-2 this season) when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. 8* INDIANA |
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12-20-16 | Memphis +7 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 31-51 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Boca Raton Bowl - CFB Game #215 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (+) vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida @ 7 ET - Waiting has paid off here as a line that was as low as a 3.5 when the bowl lines came out has now moved to as high as a 7 in many spots as of early morning on gameday. That makes it "go time" with the underdog here as I'll gladly take advantage of the generous points being offered. Both of these teams have dynamic offenses (especially through the air) so the key comes down to the better pass defense. Memphis has the better secondary and their pass defense has been solid with a 17-15 ratio this season. Additionally, the Tigers have the edges at head coach as Memphis will be going with their defensive coordinator (Holt) as the interim head coach here since Brohm was hired by Purdue. We already saw what happened in this bowl season with another team that was going through a head coaching transition (Houston going with Applewhite) and that resulted in the biggest blowout loss on the opening Saturday of bowl season. The Cougars went off the board as a 5 point favorite there but still got pummeled by San Diego State. I am not saying that this one will play out exactly the same but the point is that there is certainly value with the underdog here catching a full 7 points. This is especially true when you consider that is an additional motivating factor for Memphis. The Tigers come from the bigger conference and they are well aware that they are sizable dogs against "only" a CUSA team. That is additional motivation and certainly the Tigers played the tougher strength of schedule this year too. All signs point to the stronger team from the stronger conference (AAC) in this one. 10* Top Play MEMPHIS |
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12-19-16 | Panthers +7 v. Redskins | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
MNF Primetime Punisher - NFL Game #331 - Rickenbach 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Washington Redskins @ 8:30 ET - I believe we're getting exceptional line value here because of Panthers QB Cam Newton's shoulder injury. Keep in mind, the Carolina defense has forced 10 turnovers in their last 4 games. By comparison, the Redskins have forced just 2 turnovers in their last 3 games. Statistically both of these defenses rank in the bottom third of the league but the Panthers held San Diego to just 278 yards last week plus forced 5 turnovers. Of course Carolina has had a frustrating season but, off of a win last week and knowing that this is truly their last chance to shine this season because of no post-season and no other prime-time games left for them, look for the Panthers to absolutely "bring it" on Monday Night Football tonight. The Redskins are over-rated in my opinion. Not only do they have a poor defense but their 7 wins and 1 tie have included Philadelphia (5-9 record) TWICE, the Browns (0-14), the Vikings (7-7), and the Bengals (5-8-1). Against the rest of the league Washington went just 3-5. I know the Panthers have a poor record on the season but this is still a team that went to the Super Bowl last season and will still "go hard" based on "professional pride" and the fact that the Monday Night lights are shining tonight. The fact this line is all the way up to a full +7 is what is truly adding great line value here. Keep in mind the Redskins didn't defeat the floundering Eagles until they got a TD with less than 2 minutes to go last week. Also, Washington lost their two games prior to beating Philly. Carolina has won each of its last 4 meetings with the Skins and the average margin of victory has been double digits! The Panthers are on a 14-6 ATS run as a road dog. Also, as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Carolina is 4-1 ATS the past three seasons. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, the Redskins are a long-term 13-27 ATS. Grab the generous points in this one. 8* CAROLINA |
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12-19-16 | Eastern Michigan +12.5 v. Syracuse | 57-105 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Watch-n-Win Crusher - CBB Game #711 Monday - Rickenbach 8* Eastern Michigan Eagles (+) @ Syracuse Orange @ 7 ET - As always, Syracuse is a "dangerous" team but they lost a lot of firepower (to say the least!) from an Orange team that was in the Final Four last season. The key to the value here is that last year's team is still fresh in the memory of the marketplace and Syracuse continues to have a tendency of being over-priced. I believe that is precisely the case here as the Orange are priced at more than a dozen in this one against an Eastern Michigan team that is one of the top teams in MAC. Yes, of course, the MAC is not the ACC but the point is that this Eagles team has a veteran-laden roster with strong guard play and a key to being competitive against a Jim Boeheim coached team is having veteran floor leaders and a solid backcourt. The Eagles have that covered and I look for them to be a tough "out" for the Orange tonight. Even though Syracuse is off of a loss this is a tough scheduling spot as they just played on Saturday. Yes it is true that Eastern Michigan also just played on Saturday as well but, keep in mind, the Eagles aren't the ones being asked to cover a large number in this game! Eastern Michigan is shooting 47% on the season and averaging 85 points per game. Certainly the Eagles defense is not on par with that of the Orange but their offense is dangerous and they can trade buckets with the Orange throughout this game. I look for Syracuse, off of a loss, to be content to "grind out a win" here and I don't see them covering this large number against a talented Eagles team. Also, the Orange have another game (St John's) on deck for Wednesday so this is part of a 3 games in 5 days stretch for Syracuse and Boeheim will manage the players' minutes accordingly. Conversely, Eastern Michigan has a small school on deck and that game is not until Thursday so the Eagles are "all in" for this game tonight! The Orange are 0-3 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record while the Eagles are already 3-1 ATS on the season. Those trends continue here. 8* EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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12-18-16 | Bucs +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - NFL Game #305 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET - The Cowboys only two straight-up losses this season are to the Giants after last week's loss at New York. However, last week's defeat did mark the 3rd straight ATS loss that Dallas has suffered and it is clear that rookie QB Dak Prescott has regressed a bit over the last couple weeks. Keep in mind that the pressure is more intense now too because Dallas still needs a win to clinch the NFC East and this is true even if the Giants lose to the Lions earlier in the day Sunday. I expect the pressure to start to catch up with "The Boys" here and the Dallas D was helped by facing a struggling Giants offense last week. Prior to that, Dallas allowed 1.347 passing yards their prior 4 games. That is an average of 336.8 passing yards given up per game for the Cowboys secondary. Tampa Bay's passing attack didn't have to do much last week as the Buccaneers defense did most of the "heavy lifting" to defeat the Saints last week. However, prior to that win over the Saints, the TB passing attack produced 1,417 yards in 5 games. That's an average of 283.4 passing yards per game for the Bucs offense. Don't be surprised if the Bucs (in a huge battle for the top spot in the NFC South) give the Cowboys all they can handle in this one! The Buccaneers are on a 5-1 ATS run as a road dog and all 5 wins were outright wins by an average margin of 7 points per game! That said, I'll certainly take the 7 points that are being offered here in a game where Tampa Bay could very well get the upset over the over-rated Cowboys who are starting to come back down to earth. At the very least, look for Dallas to suffer their 4th straight ATS loss. The Cowboys are on a 1-4 SU and ATS run against NFC South opponents. The Bucs are on a long-term 18-6 ATS run in road games where the posted total is between 45.5 and 49 points. More of the same Sunday night. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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12-18-16 | Western Michigan +12.5 v. Washington | 86-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - CBB Game #531 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Western Michigan Broncos (+) @ Washington Huskies @ 8 ET - The Broncos and Huskies both are below .500 so far this season and certainly the Huskies are the better team from the bigger conference. However, I view this as a very difficult spot for Washington to cover a large impost. They've been off for over a week. So too have the Broncos but they're not being asked to cover a big number like the Huskies are. The last time Washington had a week of rest they then got blasted by 27 against Gonzaga as they had their worst shooting night of the season. They're a rather young team which can make the time off even more difficult. As for Western Michigan, they returned four starters from last season's team and they're early season schedule has been just as difficult as the Huskies so don't underestimate them here. Both teams lack in terms of defense but the Broncos can put up big points and that will allow them to trade buckets with the Huskies throughout this game in my opinion. The points are simply too much here for Washington in what is a challenging situation for an offense to be in rhythm. The Broncos are 7-4 ATS in their games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game. Washington is on a 4-7 ATS run in games after having 5 or 6 days of rest between games. 8* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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12-18-16 | Pelicans +13 v. Spurs | 100-113 | Push | 0 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - NBA Game #513 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - Tonight the Spurs will have a retirement ceremony for Tim Duncan so certainly it will be a big night at the AT & T Center in San Antonio. Also, I am well aware of the Anthony Davis injury situation (currently listed as questionable) for the Pelicans. The fact is that the Spurs haven't been blowing teams out with any regularity at all this season and this line is inflated due to both of the reasons noted above. Also, the Spurs do have a huge game on deck with the rival Rockets in Houston and New Orleans did not have Jrue Holiday available in the first match-up between these teams earlier this season. The Spurs won that game by 19 points and that is one of only 2 home wins by more than 10 points that San Antonio has this entire season. They've struggled to pull away in many of their wins and they're going to face an angry Pelicans team here. New Orleans is not happy about their blowout loss at Houston Friday (Davis was pulled half-way through 3rd quarter as a precaution) and they'll be fired up to get back on track tonight. New Orleans is 14-5 ATS in Sunday games the past three seasons. The Spurs are a different team without Duncan and San Antonio has gone only 4-7 ATS at home this season and just 1-3 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest. The Spurs want this win badly because of Duncan tonight and that pressure could lead to an "off" shooting night. Don't be surprised if the Pelicans keep this game much closer than many are expecting. 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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12-18-16 | Patriots v. Broncos +3 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Month - NFL Game #326 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos are one of the few teams that has given the Patriots some trouble in recent years. Certainly I am well aware of the fact that the Broncos offense is a weakness but their defense is a tremendous strength and they have fared well against Tom Brady and Company in recent years. Yes, this is a revenge game for the Patriots (since the Broncos knocked the Pats out of the post-season in January), but the fact is this is a tough spot for New England. The Patriots are on a short week and just faced a very physical Ravens defense and now have to face another tough, physical defense in the form of the Broncos. Also, the short week issue is magnified by having to travel plus now play in the thin air of Colorado. By the way, that air is extra thin when a strong cold front has just moved through. Conditions certainly aren't expected to be brutal but it is unlikely the temperature gets above freezing today in Denver and the "Mile High" air could wear down the Pats as the game goes on. The Patriots are only 1-5 ATS (and SU!) as a road fave of 3 points or less the past three seasons. Also, the home team has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. The Pats are a ridiculous 10-3 ATS this season but most of their wins since Brady returned have come against losing teams. The toughest AFC team the Patriots faced was the Steelers but Pittsburgh was without Ben Roethlisberger in that game. The toughest NFC team the Pats faced was Seattle and that was the lone game that the Patriots have lost since Brady returned. This could be loss #2 since Brady's return as the Broncos are fighting for their playoff lives and they are off of a tough, tight loss at Tennessee last week where their rally fell short. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less and all 4 wins were outright victories. Grab the points! 10* DENVER |
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12-18-16 | Lions +4.5 v. Giants | 6-17 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
NFL Game #307 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Lions are catching the Giants off of a huge Sunday night win over the division rival Cowboys. That sets this one up nicely as, even though Detroit is off of a divisional win also, the Lions victory came against a 3-10 Bears team. The Giants offense has been held under 300 yards now for three straight games! The Lions are coming off of a non-covering win last week but that was their 5th straight SU win and Detroit brought a 7-1 ATS run in that game versus Chicago. Last week's game against the Bears marked the 7th straight time that the Lions have allowed 20 points or less as their defense continues to improve. Looking at the Giants 10 games prior to beating Dallas last week, their defense dominated the Browns, Bears, and Rams but those teams are a combined 7-32 on the seasons! In the other 7 games the Giants allowed at least 20 points in all 7 games and the average points allowed was 23.7 points per game. The Lions and the Giants have more in common than their 9-4 records, Detroit is just as good (if not better) than New York and you can see by the defensive numbers above and the Giants recent futility on offense, that there is no reason for the Giants to be favored by 4.5 points in this game. The value is with the points especially with the G-men off of such a big win. 8* DETROIT |
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12-18-16 | Colts +5 v. Vikings | 34-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
NFL Game #313 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Andrew Luck or Sam Bradford? Who would you rather have at QB? This game is being played indoors and Luck and Company are off of a turnover-plagued home to the division rival Texans last week. The Colts are still alive in the playoff race but this a must-win for them and I look for Luck to respond in a big way after last week's disappointing defeat. As for the Vikings, yes they won last but they only had a small yardage edge and that was against a 2-11 Jacksonville team. The Vikes certainly face a much tougher test this week. The Colts have won and covered three straight road games! Amazingly, Indianapolis has played 6 games away from home this season and they've averaged 29.7 points per game in those 6 games. Certainly I respect the Vikings defense but this is a dangerous Colts offense and Minnesota had lost 6 of their last 7 games before defeating the Jaguars last week. Indy is 10-5 SU and ATS when off of a divisional game and also the Colts have gone 8-4 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points the past three seasons combined. More of the same here. 8* INDIANAPOLIS |
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12-18-16 | Titans +6 v. Chiefs | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
NFL Game #317 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Tennessee Titans (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - The Chiefs have been fortunate this season in terms of turnovers and they also have been excellent in special teams play. That has been the key to a 10-3 record despite, based on yardage, ranking 24th on offense and 27th on defense this season. Truly the Chiefs have to be one of the "worst good teams" ever based on the stats they've produced this season. Certainly one must give credit to Kansas City for "finding a way" week in and week out but the point is that this is still an over-rated football team. That is helping to drive this line higher than it should be as KC actually comes into this game on a 2-7 ATS run in home games and yet this line is up near a full TD. It will be very cold in Kansas City Sunday afternoon and I look for the Titans to hold the edge here as the ground game could be key. Tennessee is one of the top teams in the league with their ground attack on offense AND in terms of defending the run on defense. The Titans offense struggled last week but that was against Denver and the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league. Tennessee will find the going a little easier this week! The Titans also have an edge in catching the Chiefs off of a huge divisional win over the Raiders last week that was a battle of teams at the top of the AFC West. Kansas City has only covered 2 of their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and I look for that trend to chalk up another ATS loss this week. 8* TENNESSEE |
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12-17-16 | Southern Miss -6.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Opening Day Top Play - CFB Game #211 Saturday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-) vs UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns in the New Orleans Bowl in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome @ 9 ET - In looking at all the Saturday bowl match-ups this is the one that is the biggest mismatch in terms of ATS records this season. That disparity helps to give line value here because Southern Miss only went 3-9 ATS this season while Louisiana went 8-4 ATS on the season. The result is extra line value here toward the Golden Eagles and, yes, I am of course well aware of the fact that there has already been significant upward movement on the Eagles in this match-up but there is still great value here. Southern Mississippi's numbers are a bit skewed this season due to some injury issues with star senior QB Nick Mullens. When he is on the field, this is simply a different team and the Golden Eagles rolled Louisiana Tech in their final regular season game to become bowl eligible. Mullens had a huge game against the Bulldogs and I expect nothing less in this bowl game from the senior QB as he is a true "gamer". Mullens is a leader and he'll go hard here to get this bowl win as a senior. Southern Miss lost the two games he didn't play in and they also had a loss to LSU but that is a tough SEC team of course. The point is that they went 6-3 in the other 9 games that Mullens started and they now take on a rather weak Sun Belt Conference team. I know UL-Lafayette won big over rival UL-Monroe in their season finale to become bowl eligible but the Ragin' Cajuns were actually quite fortunate that game was played in a rainstorm. It benefited Louisiana in the form of them being the beneficiary of 5 UL-Monroe turnovers. However, there certainly won't be any rainstorm in this one as it is being played in a dome and I don't seee anything stopping Mullens and a strong Southern Miss offense in this one. I am aware of the Ragin' Cajuns solid bowl history but the Golden Eagles lost their bowl game last season and Mullens and company want to make up for that in a big way this season. Also, Louisiana has gone 0-2 ATS in recent seasons (and 5-15 SU) long-term in their match-ups with Conference USA opponents. The Golden Eagles are the stronger team with the better offense. Mullens has a 60-22 TD-INT ratio in his junior and senior year combined. The Ragin' Cajuns Anthony Jennings has thrown 12 picks against just 11 TDs this season! 10* Top Play SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES Saturday night |