Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-04-23 | Toronto v. Hamilton +7.5 | Top | 41-28 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
CFL Monday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats + points vs Toronto Argonauts @ 3:30 ET - This is a double revenge spot for Hamilton as they have lost both meetings with Toronto this season. I like the fact the Tiger-Cats are back on track after a win last week and are a big home dog here catching more than a TD as the current line is 7.5 points at the time of this posting. Hamilton will take advantage of an Argonauts secondary dealing with some injuries. As for the Toronto offense, I know they have been rolling overall but their most recent road game saw them score only 7 points. This is a tough match-up against a Ti-Cats team that is better than their record shows. Look for this one to go down to the wire which means getting more than a TD is a huge value here. 10* HAMILTON + points |
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09-03-23 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +7.5 | Top | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +7.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - Blue Bombers won big at Saskatchewan 45-27 early this season but the yardage was about equal in that one so the final score was deceiving. Now look at the Bombers road games since then. Winnipeg scored 17 points in next road win then lost roadie in OT then beat league-worst Elks at Edmonton, then won by 1 at Calgary. The point is that, with those types of road results, the Blue Bombers are truly over-priced here the way I see it. Note that Winnipeg is also entering this game off a huge win last week versus Montreal while the Riders got to enjoy a nice bye week last week. The Roughriders have won 3 of last 4 homes games since the home loss to Blue Bombers and the Riders only loss in that stretch was by 2 points. A lot of home dog value here! 10* SASKATCHEWAN +7.5 |
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09-02-23 | North Carolina v. South Carolina +2.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play South Carolina Gamecocks (+) points vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7:30 ET in Charlotte, NC - This is a neutral site game and the current dominant line across all sports books as of gameday morning is 2.5 and I am grabbing the dog here. I like the fact the ranked team, North Carolina, is laying such a short number. I also like the way a few of the books I few as sharp are pricing this game. This has me lining up on what I feel is the sharp side which is also heavily based on what I like in terms of the match-up here too of course. The Gamecocks have really responded well under head coach Shane Beamer (yes he is the son of long-time former head coach Frank Beamer). South Carolina is building some continuity here in the program with Beamer and they finished last season very strong and I feel they will carry that momentum right into this season. Their passing attack is a strength now and QB Spencer Rattler is getting more and more comfortable here as he showed late last season. He will lead the way here against a Tar Heels defense that essentially lost their entire secondary from last season so you are talking about new starters here at key positions in the back of the defense. North Carolina had a lot of question marks in the off-season with a lot going on in the transfer portal including all the uncertainty involving the starting QB. Though he eventually decided to stay it says a lot about this program and that it is a bit shaky right now when I look at their coaching and personnel situations. I feel strongly that the Gamecocks are in better shape to hit the ground running early this season. North Carolina should improve as the season goes on but there is a reason this ranked team is hardly favored here in Week 1 and I love the points in this spot. 10* SOUTH CAROLINA |
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09-02-23 | BC -3.5 v. Montreal | Top | 34-25 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Saturday BC Lions (-) points @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - Both teams off bad losses but if you look at the stats from those games, the Lions were about even statistically while the Als were outgained by a huge margin. Don't let this line, currently BC -3.5 at time of this write-up, fool you. Montreal is heading the wrong way right now and BC is the stronger team right now and more likely to respond big here with a huge win. The Lions are favored by more than a field goal here on the road but it is for a reason. This is the point. Two teams looking to bounce back off a loss but I trust this BC team much more than the Alouettes in this spot. 10* BC Lions |
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09-01-23 | Louisville -7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 39-34 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Louisville Cardinals (-) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7:30 ET in Atlanta, Georgia - Technically the Yellow Jackets have the home field edge here but it is a neutral site game at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This line was originally around 10 and I was hoping we would see it tick down to an even 7 but it has been stuck at 7.5 across the board at the time of this write-up. I feel that is actually a positive sign for us if you will. The fact is the sharp action would come flying in too hard on a 7 and the books are not willing to go there, at least not yet. I say sharp money because the fact is this Louisville team is too strong for Georgia Tech. Look at statistics from last season and it already shows that overall, the Cardinals were already the stronger team. Then when you look at what has transpired with each team in the off-season and the Cards appear much more poised than the Jackets to hit the ground running with strong play this season. Plummer will be the QB and he is off a strong season at Cal and before that was at Purdue where Cardinals head coach Brohm was as well so there is already familiarity for him here working in this offense. This is a great match and their ground game, with Jordan leading the way, will run all over a GT defense that struggles to stop the run. I know Louisville lost quite a bit from the defensive side of the ball but Georgia Tech has a new offensive coordinator and a new QB to run it with King (previously unimpressive at A & M) under center. The Yellow Jackets will have more growing pains than the Cardinals early this season. 10* LOUISVILLE - points |
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09-01-23 | Rays -1.5 v. Guardians | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs -105 @ Cleveland Guardians @ 7:10 ET - Glasnow has been pitching great, as per usual. Quantrill is returning from injury and his final rehabilitation start in AAA went well but he was struggling prior to this in his rehab outings. Lets also not forget that his numbers at the major league level were not good this season either. So the starting pitching edge is definitely with the Rays plus they have the overall team edge. Tampa Bay is 47-21 this season against teams with a losing record. The Guardians are 31-34 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, the Rays are 20-6 this season against teams from the AL Central. Remember that there is a huge divisional edge this season between the East and Central. The run line should be no issue here in a blowout road win. 10* TAMPA BAY -1.5 -105 |
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08-31-23 | Florida v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 11-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (- points) vs Florida Gators @ 8 ET - This is a revenge game from last season when Utah lost the game late. However, revenge is certainly not the only factor but it certainly does not hurt either! The real value here is because of Utah QB Cameron Rising being out for this game. The key is that the back-up has experience and will be just fine here plus we have seen a line drop from near double digits to now a 4.5 as of gameday morning. The Utes should roll to a big win here as they have much more in the way of returning experience here than the Gators. Also, last season's meeting was in Florida and now this one is in the thin air of Utah and the altitude edge can be a factor for a team like the Gators that hardly ever has to deal with it. For the Utes it certainly is nothing new. I look for the experience edge, home field factor, revenge factor, and line value to all play a role in this one being an ATS victory for us as a win by at least a TD margin is in the cards for the Utes the way I see it. Keep in mind, this line plummeted right past the key number of 7 so the value added is certainly noticeable! Though Cameron Rising is a strong QB the fact is Bryson Barnes has experience already and has a great team around him with which to work and then the other QB option (also could see some snaps) is a guy with dangerous legs! Nate Johnson is a guy loaded with speed and that makes him tough to defend when he is under center as well. 10* UTAH (- points) |
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08-29-23 | White Sox v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles Run Line -1.5 -110 vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles Kremer is 12-5 this season while the White Sox Scholtens is 1-6. Also, the Orioles the much better team overall of course and rolled 9-0 yesterday and Scholtens has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts. Kremer is having a great season and is enjoying a fantastic August after also dominating in July. More of the same here plus a huge bullpen edge. Chicago is 22-51 against teams with a winning record this season. Baltimore has the best record in the AL plus is 19-7 against AL Central teams this year! The Orioles 15 of last 19 wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The White Sox have seen 17 of last 20 losses by at least a 2-run margin. More of the same expected here. 10* BALTIMORE -1.5 -110 |
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08-28-23 | Padres -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play San Diego Padres Run Line -1.5 -110 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 7:45 ET - For those of you that noticed, yes we just faded the downtrodden Cardinals 3 straight days with the much better team, the Phillies. Here we keep the same angle going as we take the Padres over the Cardinals. Note that St Louis is not just losing games, they are getting dominated. Yesterday the Phillies beat them 3-0 but it could have been much worse as Philadelphia outhit the Cards 11 to 2. The Cardinals have now lost 9 of 11 games and have scored just 12 runs in those 9 defeats - an average of 1.3 runs per loss. They are starting Wainwright whom, as you guys know, I have been fading frequently this season with either overs or playing against him. The fact is his career was already declining but when he finally lost long-time batterymate Molina to retirement that really marked the end for Wainwright as well. This season he is now 3-9 with an 8.61 ERA. Conversely, Blake Snell is pitching some of his best baseball of the year right now and, overall is having a huge season. Snell has a 2.73 ERA this season plus he has been simply unreal truly dating all the way back to late-May! Snell has allowed just 16 earned runs in his last 17 starts! That is insane! Making it even more amazing he has allowed just 57 hits in those 17 outings! So about 3 to 4 hits per start and just 1 earned run per start and plus the better team and hotter lineup of the Padres taking advantage of facing the Cardinals here. You don't have to twist my arm here! 10* SAN DIEGO -1.5 -110 |
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08-27-23 | Texans +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Texans +2.5 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8 ET - The Texans are the overall younger roster with some key position battles going on. The Saints are a more veteran team and already more established in that regard. Also, Houston just got blasted by 25 points last week while the Saints are off another win and are 2-0 in the preseason. Everything sets up well for the road underdog in this battle to be the more motivated team and I expect some of their key personnel to play a little longer when you look at the Texans and compare to New Orleans. This line was in the 3.5 range and has dropped to a 2.5 and for the books to be willing to move past the key number of 3 you know that they are respecting some of the action the Texans have seen in the betting markets. I expect an outright upset here but we will grab the points just in case. This is the final game of the preseason and there have been plenty of underdog upsets and also the points can prove invaluable when you consider that 12 games already in the preseason have been decided by 2 or less points. Grab the points here in the preseason finale and expect an upset or, at the very least, a game decided by the slimmest of margins. 10* HOUSTON +2.5 |
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08-27-23 | Cardinals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +100 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 1:35 ET - Drew Rom is a rookie hurler who has not been overly impressive at the minor league level and just got crushed in his MLB debut Monday. Now on Sunday he faces a Phillies team that has been tough and is surging while his Cardinals team is currently struggling and now in last place in their division. Philadelphia is on a 12-5 run in home games and the Cardinals have been trending the other direction and have lost 8 of last 10 games. Value spot to back the home team here on the run line which is available at even money. Aaron Nola is a rock solid starter and is expected to get the call for the Phillies here. Nola has been fantastic at home throughout his career and in almost all his home starts this season he has been quite tough. Look for these long-term trends to continue here. Note also that St Louis is 33-46 versus winning teams. The Phillies are 38-25 at home. 17 of Cardinals last 20 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 14 of last 15 Philly wins have by 2 or more runs. No hesitation in laying the run line here given those numbers. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 |
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08-26-23 | Cardinals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +100 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:15 ET - Dakota Hudson is 5-0 this season and is expected to start for the Cardinals in this one and yet Philadelphia is a -200 favorite on the money line. Must be big mistake, right? No, not at all! First off, about Hudson he actually has a rather pedestrian 3.95 ERA this season and he had a 4.45 ERA last season so is not like this guy is a true dominator. Give Hudson some credit for his record for sure but now he faces a Phillies team that has been tough and is surging while his Cardinals team is currently struggling and now in last place in their division. Philadelphia is on an 11-5 run in home games and the Cardinals have been trending the other direction and have lost 7 of last 9 games. Value spot to back the home team here on the run line which is available at even money. Zack Wheeler is a solid starter and is expected to get the call for the Phillies here. Wheeler has a 2.89 ERA since the All-Star break and has held hitters to a .203 batting average in these 7 starts. St Louis is 33-45 versus winning teams. The Phillies are 37-25 at home. 16 of Cardinals last 19 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 13 of last 14 Philly wins have by 2 or more runs. No hesitation in laying the run line here given those numbers. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 |
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08-26-23 | UMass v. New Mexico State -7 | Top | 41-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Rotation #302 Saturday CFB 10* New Mexico State Aggies -7 vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - Of course the point spread is, and must, be a factor but lets first talk about some facts in terms of straight-up records. UMass has lost 24 straight road games! The Minutemen have covered just 6 times in their last 23 road games. UMass is again projected to be one of the worst teams in the nation. New Mexico State has won 6 of last 7 games including their bowl game last season. This team is really responding well under head coach Jerry Kill and I also like the fact they are at home for this one and want to avoid the slow start they had out of the gate last season. The Aggies are much better than the Minutemen and I also like the fact this line opened up around double digits but has come down to the TD mark. Laying 7 points here is something I am very comfortable with and hopefully the line will stay no higher than 7. Either way, lay it with this one and it would not surprise me if this game got steamed as the day goes along Saturday so note this line could rise back up. A lot of lines do that in football. They'll fall in the days coming into game day and then start moving back toward where they came from when the sharps start rolling in with bigger bets on gameday. The fact is the Aggies have won each of the last two meetings by double digits and I expect a similar result here. They are the more talented and more cohesive group and they have an altitude edge at home also plus this is a long road trip for a bad UMass team. 10* NEW MEXICO STATE -7 |
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08-25-23 | Calgary +10.5 v. Toronto | Top | 31-39 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary +10.5 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7:30 ET - Revenge is overplayed. Yes, this is a revenge game for the Argos after losing at Calgary a few weeks ago. However, even if the Argonauts get revenge it does not mean it will come via a blowout. The Argos are off a bye week but they probably did not even want it. This bye followed a huge 44-31 win and Toronto would have liked to have had a chance to build off the momentum. As for the Stamps, the 20-7 win over the Argos was no fluke. They outgained Toronto by about 100 yards and the Calgary defense was great in that game. Now the Stampeders have lost B2B games since then including losing by just a single point last week so you know they will be fired up to get back on track here. That may not happen but I also do not see them getting blown out in this game either. Take advantage of an over-reaction on this line and grab the big point with the road dog here. 10* CALGARY +10.5 |
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08-24-23 | Montreal +9.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 17-47 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes + points at Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - This line is as high as a 9.5 as of game day morning and I love the big points in this spot. Yes Collaros is back for the Blue Bombers at QB but Fajardo is back for the Alouettes. Also, consider what Evans did at QB in the late comeback win at Ottawa last week. Additionally, the Montreal defense has been solid and though the Bombers getting so much attention for being a hot team, the Als have been really hot too. When these teams met in Montreal earlier this season, Winnipeg won 17 to 3 but the yardage in that game was about equal. To me, given all of the above, this is just too many points to give the Alouettes as they are solid defensively and their offense has a boost with the Evans performance and with Fajardo coming back. 10* MONTREAL + points |
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08-24-23 | Steelers v. Falcons +5 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons + points vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 7:30 ET - Currently this line is available as a high as a +5 with the dominant number being +4.5 right now. Simply put, this is a great line value as even a 3 or 4 point loss (both key numbers) would still be a win for Atlanta ATS. Generally speaking, I like fading teams who are off of outright upset wins as an underdog and the Steelers are in that role here. Historically, and Pittsburgh's recent seasons are no exception, teams do not perform well in that role in the preseason. We are getting some extra value here because both of Pittsburgh's wins in this preseason have been by a double digit margin. However, what seems to be ignored here is that the Falcons are allowing an average of only 8 points per game so far in this preseason and Atlanta is undefeated thus far with one win and one tie. No team has allowed fewer points than the Falcons in this preseason plus the Steelers, though undefeated, have allowed twice as many points! I know Pittsburgh has solid depth at QB and this is the final preseason game so depth is important. However, Atlanta also has respectable depth at QB too and I feel the Steelers WR group is very thin on depth too. That said the Falcons absolutely could pull off the upset here and, in my mind, the points are offering a fantastic value here. 10* ATLANTA + points |
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08-21-23 | Ravens v. Commanders +1.5 | Top | 28-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +1.5 vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8 ET - The Ravens have won 24 straight preseason games and yet this line is basically a pick'em. This tells me all I need to know here. However, of course we'll give you a little more to chew on with this one! The fact is that neither Lamar Jackson nor Tyler Huntley will see any time at QB in this one for the Ravens. That means Baltimore will only go with their #3 and #4 guys, Josh Johnson and Anthony Brown, in this one. The Ravens barely snuck by the Eagles last week. The Commanders also got a tight win last week but they seem more motivated this season and more cohesive. A lot has changed with this Washington organization recently and this is a different team this season that wants to set a different standard. They have played 2nd fiddle to the Ravens in the Baltimore/DC region for years now. Even though this is only a preseason game, the fact that the Ravens have won 24 in a row actually could give the Commanders a little extra incentive here. They also are going to be giving more playing time to their stronger QB battles than what Baltimore is. Ravens dealing with just a 3/4 battle because they won't risk Jackson this week and because Huntley tweaked something last week so they won't risk him this week either. I don't believe in trap lines per se but I do believe in further analytics when a line looks a little funny to the masses. That is the case here and, in this case, the 24-game winning streak is primed to end! We'll grab the +1.5 just in case it is another 1-point win for the Ravens but look for an outright win for the home team in this one. 10* WASHINGTON +1.5 |
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08-20-23 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Sunday MLB 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -135 @ Washington Nationals @ 7:10 ET (game played in Williamsport, PA) - Not really a home game for the Nationals as this one being played in PA and the location favors the Phillies really. In any event, Philadelphia is the much stronger team and off a huge win yesterday. Williams continues to give up a lot of homers for Washington and is struggling bad. Conversely, the Phillies Wheeler has been fantastic since the All-Star break and this long-time solid veteran is holding hitters below a .200 batting average since then. He dominates again here and Williams gets lit up and the Phillies should win big again in this one. Keep in mind, the Phillies bullpen is ranked 2nd in the National League while the Nationals bullpen is ranked dead last in the National League for ERA so far this season. Washington is 12 games under .500 versus teams with a winning record this season while Philadelphia is 10 games over .500 versus teams with a losing record this season. The Nats are a horrific 12-23 in divisional games this season. The Nationals are also 13 games under .500 in night games this season. 45 of 67 Phillies wins have been by a multi-run margin this season and 50 of 68 Nationals losses have been by 2 or more runs this season. More of the same here! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -135 |
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08-20-23 | BC v. Saskatchewan +10.5 | Top | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +10.5 vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - I am aware of the injury situations here. Here are the keys I like in this match-up. The Roughriders off an ugly loss and the Lions are off a blowout win. When these teams met earlier this season at BC, the Riders outgained the Lions but lost the game by a 10 point margin. Additionally, Saskatchewan rarely gets blown out at home and the only time they did this season, versus Winnipeg, they actually outgained the Blue Bombers. So the point is that we have a lot of line value here with a big dog that has proven they can compete with anyone this season yet they have some deceiving final scores on their resume. That said, the additional value from a situational perspective is what has me betting this big home dog with confidence and yes I know that QB Fine is out for this one but just watch what happens in this game ladies and gentlemen! 10* SASKATCHEWAN +10.5 |
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08-19-23 | Titans v. Vikings +3 | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings +2.5 vs Tennessee Titans @ 8 ET - The Titans gave up 8 sacks last week. Yes, EIGHT! Keep in mind this was to a Bears team that finished DEAD LAST in the NFL last year for sacks! In other words, this is absolutely concerning. Now, I know this was the back-ups that allowed all that damage but it is back-ups that usually decide preseason games. I think Tennessee is in trouble here on the road. The Vikings are angry off a double digit loss and they have performed well in the past in the preseason when they enter a game off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. Minnesota will be ready here. Also, they are at home and they are catching a few points. I like the fact the Vikings blew a 10 point lead last week too. That insures proper focus here even though this is only a preseason game. Certainly both teams have some things to fix entering this game off losses last week but some things are more fixable than others. The back-up play for the players in the trenches in Tennessee leaves a lot to be desired and won't be fixed in one week. The Vikings have a lot of talent and depth at the WR position and I look for the Vikes to open things up a bit on offense as this game goes on and they will get the win through the aerial attack. I will grab the 2.5 points as added insurance in case they fall just short. 10* MINNESOTA +2.5 |
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08-18-23 | Winnipeg v. Calgary +4.5 | Top | 19-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +4.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 9 ET - Bombers QB Collaros is dealing with a neck injury. If he plays he is not 100% and he may not even play here. That makes this a tough road game for Winnipeg. Even with the line having been adjusted down some it is still not enough. This line has been kept high because the Blue Bombers are 7-2 this season and 5-1 in the division and Calgary is just 1-3 at home and 1-4 in divisional games this season. Given numbers like that, it is not a surprise that many are not backing the Stampeders here...but, we will! The Stamps should roll at home here. They are hungry after getting obliterated on the road at BC last week and I expect a huge effort from them here this week now that they are back in Alberta. 10* CALGARY +4.5 |
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08-18-23 | Bengals +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 13-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Friday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 @ Atlanta Falcons @ 7:30 ET - There has been an over-reaction here to the fact Joe Burrow is out for the Bengals and the fact the Falcons will be playing two quarterbacks who are their top two guys and who did not play last week. The key here is that Cincinnati will be mostly playing two quarterbacks that did play last week. Don't be surprised if having already worked out the rust benefits the Bengals QB situation here. Don't be surprised if the Cincy defense is much better this week after they got ram-rodded last week. Note also that the Falcons won 19 to 3 last week but they were outgained by about 100 yards in that game and they punted 5 times. Their opponent actually punted only 2 times in the game but they were done in by turnovers and being stopped on downs a couple times too. So the point is that Cincy is not nearly as bad as the final scored showed last week just like Atlanta is not nearly as good as the final score showed last week. Also, the Bengals may play even better here knowing that an injury to Burrow is NOT being risked. This is just too many points for this particularly preseason match-up. Don't be surprised if we see an outright upset here or a Bengals loss by 4 or less points. In recent seasons, the Falcons have a poor ATS record as a home favorite while the Bengals have been solid as a road dog. This is preseason ATS stuff I am talking about and I look for those trends to continue here. Give me the big points. 10* CINCINNATI +6.5 |
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08-17-23 | Edmonton Elks +5.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +5.5 @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7:30 ET - The Elks are 0-9 this season but opened up as 4.5 dogs in this one on the road. If you consider most teams are given about a 3 point edge in football when at home that means the opening line on this game had it priced in a way that it would imply the teams are about equal on a neutral field. All of that and yet Edmonton is 0-9 this season...exactly! Do not let this line fool you. Was an open invitation to take the Ti-Cats and, sure enough, people are doing just that. This line has risen. I am taking the other side and fading the move as per usual. Note that Hamilton is a bit banged up in the trenches and I also like the fact the Elks had the Blue Bombers beat last week until a late turn of events there after a key big play against them turned the tide. I feel this will have Edmonton even more hell-bent and determined on getting into the win column this week finally. Even if they do fall short of an outright win, look for the points to be enough for the all-important cover. 10* EDMONTON +5.5 |
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08-17-23 | Browns +3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 18-18 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +3.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 7:30 ET - The Browns have performed well as a road dog in preseason action and also they have performed well as an underdog when they are facing a team that is below .500 in preseason action. That angle fits here as well as the Eagles are off a 1-point loss last week. I also like the fact that Cleveland is off a loss entering this one. The Browns off a 2-point loss and Philly off a 1-point loss and I am expecting an upset here but like the value of having the points on our side given numbers like this. In case we see another tight finish involving each of these teams, the points could prove very valuable. The Browns won the yardage battle by about 150 yards in the HOF Game and then again by about 100 yards in last week's loss to the Commanders. The point is that this is an underdog that has played quite well thus far in the preseason and the value of getting a FG plus the hook is something I will not pass up on here. 10* CLEVELAND +3.5 |
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08-13-23 | Ottawa +10 v. Toronto | Top | 31-44 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +10 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - The Argos are off their first loss of the season last week so everyone will expect them to bounce right back here. However, QB Kelly may not be 100% even though he is expected to play here. Also, Toronto was off a very lucky win the week before their loss last week. The point is that this has been coming for awhile and the Argonauts drop-off should continue this week. I am not saying they won't bounce back and manage to get a win here but I am saying that it would be a hard-fought win if they do get it. I certainly am not expecting it would be decided by double digits! Ottawa's average point differential on the season is a 1 point loss. The Redblacks have played 8 games and their point differential is -8 points. Ottawa has only one loss this season by more than 8 points and that was a defeat by only an 11-point margin! That is why I feel we have such strong line value here. This is a divisional match-up and the Redblacks will be battling hard after a tight 2-point loss last week. 10* OTTAWA +10 |
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08-12-23 | Eagles +5 v. Ravens | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +5 or +5.5 @ Baltimore Ravens @ 7 ET - Everyone knows the Ravens have been incredible in preseason for many years now. Trust me, everyone means the odds makers too! That said, this line opened up with Baltimore a FG favorite at home. That is totally an enticement to take the Ravens as the implication is that the teams are equal - under preseason standards - and the home team is merely getting their full 3 points as per usual. That said, is this line some massive mistake? Well, long-time followers know how I feel about perceived "mistakes" by the odds makers. That said, the fact the line is now up to a solid 5 and as high as a 5.5 as of gameday morning absolutely has me fading the masses and I am happy to have the additional line value the markets have given us compared to what the odds makers said the line should be. This play is going against the grain per se but, historically, I love plays like this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA +5.5 OR +5 |
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08-11-23 | Saskatchewan +5.5 v. Montreal | Top | 12-41 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +5.5 @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - This is a ton of line value on the Riders. 5 of their 8 games this season have been decided by a margin of 4 or less points. Those 5 games had an average margin of just 2.4 points! Also, one of their few blowout losses was 2 weeks ago against Toronto but they deserved better as they dominated the Argonauts statistically in that one. We continue to use the flawed market perception about Saskatchewan to our advantage. I used the Riders last week successfully against Ottawa and will now use them again against another non-divisional foe. Remember that week prior to beating the Redblacks they really did statistically dominate another non-divisional foe when they had strong numbers against the Argos. Montreal is a respectable team but they are nothing special and this is just too many points for them to be laying here. The Alouettes are off a divisional win and have another divisional game on deck and I could see the Als being a little flat here. Give me the points! 10* SASKATCHEWAN +5.5 |
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08-11-23 | Commanders +3 v. Browns | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NFLX Friday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +3 @ Cleveland Browns @ 7:30 ET - Cleveland won the HOF Game versus the Jets and dominated the game statistically. The fact they are at home again (prior game in nearby Canton, OH) and have a game under their belt would seem to favor the Browns here. However, teams actually tend to NOT perform well when off an outright upset win as an underdog and this includes in preseason action and this trend also includes specifically the Browns. That said, plus considering the fact Cleveland has not performed well in recent seasons in pre-season in the home favorite role has me siding with the Commanders here. This is one of those ugly dog spots where most will be lining up with the home favorite yet, historically, it is a great spot to grab the road dog. 10* WASHINGTON |
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08-10-23 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks +12 | Top | 38-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +12 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 9 ET - So this is a double perfect spot but I am not playing it in the way you think I would! Edmonton is 0-8 this season! Also, the Elks were 0-9 in home games this season! That means they have no chance of winning this game, right? Well, actually those are SU trends but I still feel strongly that there is a possibility of an outright upset here but most definitely I feel confident about a big dog cover. This is just too many points and the hapless Elks made some changes during the bye week and will look to hit the reset button here at home and get things going back the right direction. Maybe Winnipeg does just enough for the SU win here but I do not see some big road blowout here. The fact is the Blue Bombers just knocked off BC in a huge game and they could be flat here. Winnipeg also has a tougher game at Calgary on deck. They could look right past an Edmonton team that is winless plus just lost to that same BC team 27-0 in Alberta the week before their bye week! Don't be surprised if the Elks bring a much different effort here and this is a great spot for a tight game decided by just a single score margin the way I see it! 10* EDMONTON +12 |
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08-10-23 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -120 vs Washington Nationals @ 6:40 ET - The Nationals, despite winning Game 2 of the DH Tuesday, are now 11-21 in divisional games and 25-40 in night games this season after getting hammered (and no-hit!) in a 7-0 loss yesterday. The Phillies had won 5 of 6 at home before that loss Tuesday! After yesterday's 7-0 win, each of their last 7 wins have been by at least a 2-run margin. This should be another blowout home win for the Phillies with Aaron Nola having been strong in starts overall at Citizens Bank Park throughout his career and with Patrick Corbin getting consistently rocked again this season. 10* Philadelphia -1.5 |
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08-09-23 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 113 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +115 vs Washington Nationals @ 6:40 ET - Lorenzen was fantastic in his first start for the Phillies. Now Philadelphia is looking to respond after winning Game 1 yesterday but losing Game 2 of the double-header. Philly is strong when off a home loss and the Nationals have been nothing special this season. Also, Gore had a 6.64 ERA last month in July and now faces a Phillies team that has hit him hard already this season. Lorenzen is coming off a stellar debut for the Phillies plus he went 3-1 with a 1.14 ERA last month for the Tigers! The Nationals, despite winning Game 2 of the DH yesterday, are 11-20 in divisional games and 25-39 in night games this season. The Phillies had won 5 of 6 at home before that loss yesterday and each of their last 6 wins have been by at least a 2-run margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +115 |
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08-06-23 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan +2.5 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
CFL Sunday Saskatchewan Roughriders +2.5 vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - Remember when we used Calgary over Toronto Friday and got a very easy win? Part of the analytics there including the Argonauts getting statistically dominated by a 426 to 200 count in yardage by these Roughriders last week! Indeed, Saskatchewan deserved much better than a 31-13 loss last week. Now, just like how the Argos were overvalued Friday, the Riders are likewise undervalued Sunday. As for Ottawa, they lost by only 4 points last week but they were outgained by about 100 yards and that was against a Hamilton team that is struggling. Now the Redblacks are on the road and last week statistically the Roughriders were +200 and the RedBlacks were -100 and you can see why the home dog should prove very dangerous here. SASKATCHEWAN +2.5 |
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08-06-23 | Royals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -105 vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:35 ET - The Royals are so bad on the road. Their recent winning streak was almost entirely filled with home games. Now they are back on the road and after winning the first game of this series they then lost the 2nd game as expected. They send Greinke to the mound for this one and he is 1-11 this season. Not only does he have an 0-7 record in road games this season, the Royals have won only 1 of his road start this entire season. In his last 8 road start Kansas City is 0-8. Look for that streak to reach 9 in a row right here! Taijuan Walker is 5-1 with a 2.80 ERA at home this season. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. The Phillies are the much better team, at home, and with the better bullpen, and the better starting pitcher. Most of the KC losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Look for this one to be as well as the Royals drop to 0-9 in Greinke's last 9 road starts! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -105 |
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08-05-23 | Montreal v. Hamilton +3 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +3 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - We get line value here because Hamilton QB Bo Levi-Mitchell is out again with injury. The fact is they have an adequate back-up option at quarterback plus they got good production out of their wide receivers last week. Also, their secondary looked much better than the secondary of the Alouettes last week which, by the way, is dealing with injury issues too. In terms of pass protection, the Ti-Cats also rate an edge over the Als. Factoring all this in plus the home field edge and the revenge factor, this looks like a great spot to back the Tiger-Cats. Note that Montreal crushed them here at Hamilton earlier this season so payback is on their minds here. This is a key game in the East Division race and I feel the home team is vastly under-valued here because of the Mitchell injury. Their defense will come to play just as I predicted the Stampeders defense would show up at home against the undefeated Argonauts last night and they did just that in the 20-7 win. This is truly another great home dog situation. 10* HAMILTON +3 |
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08-05-23 | Royals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -115 vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:05 ET - Sanchez has a 2.66 ERA this season. Marsh has a 6.75 ERA this season. I know the Royals are hot and snuck out another win yesterday. But 6 of their 7 victories in their current 7-game winning streak came at out. They will not win on the road again here and most of their losses this season have been by at least 2 runs. Marsh is 0-5 this season and I know Sanchez is also winless this season. However, Sanchez has deserved much better and he should help the Phillies bounce back strong here. Regardless of the starting pitching, in fact, this one will be all Philly as I challenge KC to win B2B road games. I just do not see that happening and the home team rolls here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -115 |
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08-04-23 | Toronto v. Calgary +9 | Top | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +8.5/9/9.5 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 9 ET - This is just too many points. I know Toronto is undefeated this season and they are the defending champs. Of course this also means they have a target on their backs right now. The Stampeders are still seeking their first home win of the season. When you consider those factors you have a great set up for a monumental upset here. Even if we don't get that huge upset I look for the points to be enough for the cover here as I just do not see the Argonauts winning this game by more than a 1-score margin on the road. Calgary has played in only 2 games this season that resulted in the Stampeders losing by a margin of more than 7 points and one of those was way back in Week One! Also, the Argos were dominated statistically by Saskatchewan last week and that game was at Toronto. The Riders outgained them by a 2 to 1 ratio. We have great line value here as a result and the Stamps are going to have their ears pinned back for this one! 10* CALGARY + points |
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08-04-23 | Royals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -110 vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - Yes, the Royals have won 6 straight. However, all those wins were at home. Philadelphia is a huge favorite here with good reason and, of course, we will not lay 2 to 1 odds on the Phillies here. Where the line value is, however, is that on the run line the Phillies are available in a pick'em price range of -110. That will get us involved here! Nola, throughout his career, has been known for pitching very well in Philly. As for Lyles, he is 2-12 this season and has a 6.15 ERA on the year. The Royals are 14-39 on the road this season and 17-49 against teams with a winning record! The Phillies are winners in 6 of last 9 overall and 6 of last 9 at home also. Additionally, the Royals 75 losses have included 62 by at least a 2-run margin. Look for the Phillies to roll big here at home. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -110 |
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08-03-23 | BC +6 v. Winnipeg | Top | 14-50 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
CFL Thursday 10* Top Play BC Lions +6 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - On one hand, this is a revenge game for Blue Bombers after losing badly to the Lions earlier this season. However, in last year's post-season, BC lost at Winnipeg and they have not forgotten this. Winnipeg ended up going to the Grey Cup as a result of winning that game and they hosted it because they won the West Division. Right now, the Lions are 1 game in front of the Bombers for 1st place in the West. This is a huge game as a result and BC is dead set on winning the division this season. The year has a long way to go yet but opening up an early 2-game lead would be huge for the Lions. They are a perfect 5-0 in the division this season and I like the way Dane Evans played last week at QB as BC piled up a lot of offense. Granted, it was at Edmonton, but this Lions team is playing very well this season and has been ultra strong this year on the defensive side of the ball. That said, I like the generous points being offered here and would not be surprised if we see an outright upset and the Lions improving to 6-0 SU in divisional games this season. We'll grab the points as added insurance. 10* BC Lions +6 |
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07-29-23 | BC v. Edmonton Elks +8 | Top | 27-0 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +8 vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - With Vernon Adams expected to miss this game as he still deals with an injury, the Lions are going with Dane Evans at QB as the starter and Dominique Davis as the back-up. Evans is coming off a mediocre season in which he had as many interceptions as touchdowns and that is why he was not the starter in the first place. Making this match-up a little tougher for him is that WR Dominique Rhymes is expected to miss this game and that is one less target for Evans. Also, BC is facing a desperate home dog here as the Elks are still seeking their first win of the new season. That makes things even tougher for the traveling Lions here and the Elks have been competitive in a number of their losses this season and that should be the case again here. Upset alert as the Elks bring an A game effort here and, if they fall short of the outright win, look for this game to be decided by just a one score margin as the Elks are so hungry for a home win and will be the more amped up team here. BC could overlook them and who could blame them for this really? That makes them a very dangerous dog here. 10* EDMONTON +8 |
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07-28-23 | Hamilton +2 v. Ottawa | Top | 16-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +2 @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7:30 ET - Ottawa is off B2B wins but is on short rest here compared to Hamilton. Also the Redblacks game last week was out west at Calgary while the Ti-Cats were at home for their game. Definite scheduling edge for the Tiger-Cats plus Ottawa is 0-2 in divisional games so far this season. The Redblacks want revenge here for the loss at Hamilton a few weeks ago but the road team catching them at the perfect time to get another win over their East Division foes. Ottawa is now 3-9 in divisional games the past two seasons combined and, lets not forget they went 0-9 at home last season. 10* HAMILTON +2 |
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07-22-23 | Saskatchewan +10 v. BC | Top | 9-19 | Push | 0 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughridgers +10 @ BC Lions @ 7 ET - As lines continue to rise there will be big dog value to latch onto quite frequently. I know it did not work out last night with Hamilton falling just short of the cover but those yardage starts were nearly equal in that game. Also, this followed a big dog cover with Edmonton at Winnipeg Thursday. Now here is another case where a favorite is getting into the over-valued territory in my assessment. BC is a strong club but the yardage was nearly equal to their opponents in their most recent win and that followed a Lions loss in which they allowed 45 points. So, the point is, this BC team continues to be overvalued and I like the fact that Riders QB Mason Fine - very successful at North Texas in college football - got some valuable CFL experience last year. He will be ready to go again here with QB Trevor Harris having gotten hurt and having to undergo surgery. Fine was 6 of 8 with two touchdown passes in last week's 2-point loss to Calgary. Speaking of the two point margin, the Roughriders have been known for tight games this season. This should be another one. 5 games for Riders so far and 4 were decided by an average margin of just 2.5 points! Happy to grab the big points here. 10* SASKATCHEWAN +10 |
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07-21-23 | Toronto v. Hamilton +9.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +9.5 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7:30 ET - Hamilton lost the first meeting 32-14 but the Tiger-Cats actually outgained the Argonauts in that one and the game was at Toronto! Yes, I am aware of the QB situation for the Ti-Cats here but I am confident that Taylor Powell, former Eastern Michigan QB, is going to give them a strong performance here. Powell himself is confident and this is still a talented Hamilton club that is capable of the upset here. The Argos are 4-0 this season but coming off a huge win over Montreal last week. Even if the Ti-Cats fall short, look for the points to prove to be too much here in this one. Grab the generous point spread offered in this one and look for a tight game here. 10* HAMILTON +9.5 |
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07-20-23 | Edmonton Elks +15 v. Winnipeg | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +15 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers at 8:30 ET - A lot of line value here the way I see it. Yes, Edmonton is 0-6 on the season but they have often been very competitive. Also, their defense has actually allowed a total of only FOUR touchdowns in THREE road games this season! I think the Elks remain hungry and will put forth another competitive effort on the road here as they look to pull off the shocker. Winnipeg is a quality team but they just allowed that huge Redblacks comeback against them from a huge deficit in Ottawa. The point is that the Blue Bombers will be angry and looking to bounce back here but their defense also has proven susceptible. Winnipeg should hang on for the win here but the Blue Bombers defense will again be susceptible to late points. That means a backdoor cover, if even needed, is also a distinct possibility here given that this line is above the two TD mark. Grab the big points. 10* EDMONTON +15 |
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07-18-23 | Brewers v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -105 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 6:40 ET - Teheran struggling badly for the Brewers in recent starts. Nola, for the Phillies, has been showing a lot of outings lately in which he looks like "vintage Nola" and his dominating stuff should keep Milwaukee off balance here. The Phillies certainly have the more potent lineup plus they are the hotter team plus they have the home field edge. Yes each team enters this one on a winning streak but the Brewers 18-14 last 32 games while the Phillies are 26-10 last 36 games. That coupled with the mound edge makes the Phillies the play here. Note that 35 of 42 Brewers losses have been by 2+ runs this season and that is an 83% rate! 9 of last 11 Phillies wins have been by 2+ runs and that is an 82% rate. Phillies win in a home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -105 |
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07-15-23 | Calgary +1.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +1.5 @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7 ET - Going very short on CFL write-ups today. The Stamps are on the road and 1-3 this season and facing a Riders team that is 3-1 this season and known for playing tough at home. All that and yet this line is as low as a pick'em in some spots. The point is that this line is set this way for a reason so don't let the number scare you away. Saskatchewan barely snuck by Calgary in the first meeting this season so this is a payback revenge spot. Also the Roughriders other two wins were against Edmonton and the Elks are now 0-6 on the season! So Saskatchewan is 3-1 this season but absolutely over-rated and the Stampeders other two losses this season were to BC and Winnipeg and those two teams are each 4-1 on the season now. Undervalued road team here will surprise many. 10* CALGARY +1.5 |
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07-15-23 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa +10 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +10 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - Going very short on CFL write-ups today. This is just too many points. Going to take this home team and challenge the huge road favorite to win by double digits away from home. Just can not see that happening here and note that Ottawa has only 1 loss by more than 8 points in its 4 games this season and that was a loss by just 11 points. The Redblacks defense has been respectable and their offense will step up at home here too. 10* OTTAWA +10 |
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07-14-23 | Toronto -5.5 v. Montreal | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts -5.5 @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - Huge scheduling edge for the Argonauts as they are off a bye week after thrashing BC two weeks ago. That is the same Lions team that the Alouettes just visited last week and got thrashed by them in Vancouver. That performance for each team against BC shows you the difference between these teams. Also, the Als now have the difficulty of having just had a cross country trip for their game last week and it was on Sunday. Montreal did not even practice Monday or Tuesday after that game was over 2,000 miles away. The Argos, having been off last week, and having faced the Lions at home in Toronto the week before, have a large scheduling edge here. Also, they are undefeated this season and are the defending champs. We saw last night, with Edmonton's loss, that this seems to be a continuation this season of a pattern in which the zig-zag theory is just not working. Good teams rolling and bad teams struggling week after week. Hamilton and Ottawa entered this week 1-3 on the season and those are the only two teams that the Als have beaten. When they have stepped up in class they have lost every game and this looks like another loss and I see the Argos improving to 4-0 on the season with a dominating road win. 10* TORONTO -5.5 |
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07-13-23 | Hamilton v. Edmonton Elks +1.5 | Top | 37-29 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
CFL Thursday Edmonton Elks +1.5 vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 9 ET - The Elks were a 2.5 dog and are actually moving close to as low as a pick'em in some spots. Consider that fact plus the fact that Edmonton is 0-5 this season with their overall record plus went 0-9 at home last season. In other words, how is it possible that this line is almost a pick'em? Exactly! But note that Hamilton is off their first win of the season. This is a tough spot for the Tiger-Cats the way I see it. They finally won a game plus they are on short rest here. Hamilton played on Saturday last week while the Elks played on Thursday. Not only does that give the hosts the rest edge here, also note that they lost last week's game by a single points. The home team is going to be very determined this week to finally get into the win column after coming so close last week and their defense has been playing better. EDMONTON +1.5 |
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07-08-23 | Mets +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -132 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Saturday New York Mets +1.5 -135 @ San Diego Padres @ 10:10 ET - This Padres team is just not that good. They came into the season with high expectations but look at their batting order. They of course have that potent "heart of the order" but they are weak elsewhere and particularly 6 through 9 spots. The Mets lineup not as strong in the middle but is much more complete in terms of respectable sticks through the entirety of the batting order. As for the pitchers here, Snell is the big name guy but he allowed 11 baserunners in 5 innings in his most recent start and was very fortunate to come out of it unscathed. He also got rocked by the Mets earlier this season and I would not be surprised to see that again here against Snell. As for Peterson, the southpaw has struggled this season and got demoted. But even when struggling earlier this season he handcuffed these Padres in his only start against them. The southpaw also has been better since his demotion and has allowed just 1 earned run in 10 innings. This is a lot of line value here with the run line available at a respectable price on the Mets here. The Padres have lost 8 of 12 games and the Mets won in extra innings to carry momentum from that into this one plus they already had momentum from what is now a 6-game winning streak! Also, in last 13 games, Mets only have 1 loss by more than 1 run and that is why I am riding the exceptional value with this run line here. NEW YORK METS +1.5 -135 |
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07-03-23 | Angels v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 110 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Monday San Diego Padres -1.5 +110 vs Los Angeles Angels @ 9:40 ET - Snell has been throwing very well for the Padres. He is coming off a fantastic June and dating back to May as well he has allowed only 4 earned runs in his last 7 starts. Conversely, Barria has been hit hard in each of his last two starts. The Angels are 8-15 against left-handed starters this season. The Padres certainly have not been great this season but Los Angeles, prior to a win Sunday, had lost 8 of 11 games. The Padres have been struggling but have won 9 of last 16 home games and 30 of 41 Angels losses by at least 2 runs this season. 33 of 38 San Diego wins have been by 2+ runs this season. That said, if you like the Padres to win here, you can bet they have strong odds at a big win as well and that means I have no hesitation in grabbing the plus money run line price here. SAN DIEGO -1.5 +110 |
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07-03-23 | Gimnasia +0.5 v. Newell's Old Boys | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 22 Gimnasia La Plata +0.5 goals -110 @ Newell's Old Boys @ 7 ET - I know Newell's Old Boys have the better overall record on the season and have been strong at home while Gimnasia La Plata has been weaker on the road. However, there is value with the +0.5 goals here as it turns a draw into a winning bet and note that Newell's has only 3 wins in last 13 matches in Argentine Primera Division action. Gimnasia has only 2 losses in last 9 matches in Argentine Primera Division action. So, as you can see, the odds based on recent trending over quite a long stretch in league action certainly favors the underdog here. I like that value and will not hesitate to get involved here as the underdog also has delivered a clean sheet in 5 of last 7 matches. Of course if they do that again here we can't lose but, either way, I like this situation for the underdog. Gimnasia La Plata +0.5 goals -110 |
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07-02-23 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -125 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -125 vs Washington Nationals @ 1:35 ET - Phillies had been hot but then entered Saturday off a surprising 2-1 loss to the Nationals Friday. Sure enough they bounced right back with a 19-4 yesterday. Philadelphia has Suarez expected to start here and the Phillies left-hander has been great over his last 6 starts with only 5 earned runs allowed in 40 innings of work for a 1.13 ERA! Suarez is in top form! As for the Nationals, Trevor Williams has been hit at a .304 clip on the road this season and he is coming off a tough June. Williams has been roughed up in 5 of his last 6 starts! The Phillies have won 19 of 25 games. They will build off yesterday's 19-4 win and keep on rolling today. The better team at home and note that the Nationals have gone 12-31 this season against teams with a winning record. The Phillies have gone 25-11 this season against teams with a losing record. Mismatch! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -125 |
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07-01-23 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 4-19 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 +100 vs Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - Phillies had been hot but are off a surprising 2-1 loss to the Nationals yesterday. They should bounce right back here. Philadelphia has Wheeler expected to go here and he is 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA in day games this season. He is known for pitching very well at Citizens Bank Park as well and loves pitching in Philly. As for the Nationals, Gore is 1-5 the last two months. Also his month-by-month ERA has gone from a 3.00 to a 4.06 to a 4.55 ERA in June. Additionally, Washington has never won 4 games in a row this season. They now enter this game on a 3-game winning streak. In other words, fading the Nats here is putting yourself in a never-lost situation for 2023 involving the Nationals. In fact, Washington is 2-10 last 12 times when entering a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The Phillies entered yesterday's game 18-5 last 23 games. They will bounce right back here in a big way. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +100 |
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06-27-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday Texas Rangers Run Line -1.5 +100 vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:05 ET - When the Tigers are entering a road game off a win they have gone 1-6 the last 7 times that situation has occurred this season. Detroit got the big 7-2 upset win yesterday and handed us a loss right here in this spot on the run line but I will come right back with the same thing today. As you might expect with a bad team like Detroit, they don't fare well when off big wins. In fact, the last 4 times they were off a win by a margin of 5 or more runs, they have gone 0-4 and they lost those 4 games by a 27-6 combined score. So this is a great play against situation that is 100% PERFECT since mid-May. As for the Rangers, they are 7-1 this season when off a loss by a margin of 5 or more runs! That includes PERFECT 2-0 when at home and off a big margin loss of 5 or more runs. That is the case here so we are working with double perfect edges and have the better team at home. Rangers are 27-11 this season against teams with a losing record this season. Detroit is 15-29 against teams with a winning record this season. TEXAS -1.5 +100 |
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06-26-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Monday Texas Rangers Run Line -1.5 -105 vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:05 ET - This is a battle of southpaws and the Tigers are just 5-10 versus lefties this season and the Rangers are 14-8 versus lefties. Also, the Rangers are 27-10 against teams with a losing record this season plus they are 24-13 at home. The Tigers are 15-22 on the road and 14-29 against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 5-2 this season when they enter this game off exactly 2 straight losses. In other words, they have had only 2 losing streaks reach the 3 or more mark this season. Heaney holding hitters to a .230 batting average this season and held them to .214 last season. Boyd has a 5.37 ERA this season and the Rangers have the situational edge and pitching edge and overall team edge. TEXAS -1.5 -105 |
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06-25-23 | Toronto v. Edmonton Elks +6.5 | Top | 43-31 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Sunday Edmonton Elks +6.5 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - Great spot for an underdog win here. An outright win here would not surprise me in the least while at least a home dog cover should be the minimum result here. Toronto is 1-0 on the season but they played a Hamilton team that has been a disaster so far and absolutely the worst team in the league thus far. The Tiger-Cats are now 0-3 on the season and have allowed an average of 37 points per game! The Elks, though 0-2 on the season, have allowed only 19.5 ppg this season. Edmonton is at home and off a shutout loss on the road which is certainly rare. But the two teams they have faced this season are a combined 5-1 on the season. I think the Elks are improved this season even though the results have not yet shown that and I expect them to come up big here on Sunday at home. It is just one of those great contrarian spots I love where you have a unique situation. The Elks are on a long home losing streak and hosting the defending champs yet the champion Argonauts are laying less than a TD. The betting masses likely fooled on this one and will grab the Argos but the ugly home dog should prove to be the play here. EDMONTON +6.5 |
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06-22-23 | BC +6 v. Winnipeg | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
CFL Thursday BC Lions +6 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - BC and Winnipeg both undefeated this season and I like the fact that the Lions defense has been so strong. Additionally, they have revenge from losing to the Blue Bombers last season in the semi-finals of the post-season. BC is out for revenge here and Winnipeg has been strong but also faced a Hamilton team that is now 0-2 on the season and, while both teams faced Edmonton (0-2 this season), at least the Lions have a win over Calgary and the Stampeders are 1-1 this season. The point is that, while the Blue Bombers are still a solid team, they are a little over-valued here. This is a big number considering the situation and the hot start to the season for BC. Also, Winnipeg was on the road last week while Lions were at home. BC +6 |
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06-18-23 | Hamilton -2 v. Toronto | Top | 14-32 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats -2 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - This has been a very strange start to this CFL season. Usually the odds makers have it right when it comes to setting win totals before a season starts. So far this season has played out in very unusual fashion as we come to the final game of week 2. Even though there were big changes for many teams heading into this season, it is as if last season never ended! Not kidding. Edmonton and Ottawa supposed to be vastly improved yet they are both 0-2 on the season and both suffered double digit losses this week. Winnipeg was supposed to take a step back and BC was expected to have some issues (adjustment time) with the QB (and other personnel) changes yet both those clubs are 2-0 on the season and off blowout wins. Montreal is 1-0 in the east already after being expected to struggle out of the gate. Now you have defending Grey Cup champions Toronto in their season opener at home and an underdog to a Hamilton team off an ugly loss at Winnipeg week 1. Why are the Argonauts and underdog here? Exactly! Well, if the odds makers finally get one right and we finally see a preseason fade actually end up fading in an early-season game, the Argos are going to lose this one. There is a reason this game is priced this way and the Tiger-Cats are a high-quality team that will be ready to respond in this rivalry match-up after last week's embarrassing loss. 10* HAMILTON -2 |
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06-18-23 | Spain v. Croatia +0.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Rotation #235660: Nations League | Final Sunday Croatia Goal Line +0.5 goals -120 vs Spain @ 2:45 ET - Of course Spain is favored for a reason here and they have the long-term reputation and have more resources being a bigger nation. However, this Croatia team is tactical and clinical and will prove very tough to beat. I am expecting either an upset here or for this match to be pushed past the stoppage time mark and end up a draw for grading purposes which of course would mean a win here for goal line betting purposes no matter who prevails after that point. This Croatia club has been very tough to beat and has only lost twice in last 25 matches! Spain has only 7 wins last 14 matches and just 14 victories in last 25. Remember a draw here after the normal added stoppage time would mean a win for us. Given the above numbers and the current form of the underdogs here, we have solid value with the goal line here. CROATIA +0.5 goals -120 |
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06-17-23 | Edmonton Elks +7 v. BC | Top | 0-22 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +7 @ BC Lions @ 7 ET - This is a great spot to face BC. The Lions are off a win against Calgary last week and have a huge game against Winnipeg on deck. Last season BC and the Stampeders and the Blue Bombers finished with a combined 39-15 regular season record. This is considered the Big 3 in the west while Saskatchewan and Edmonton finished a combined 10-26 last season. That said, the Lions could overlook the Elks here and that could be dangerous. Only a goal line stand from the Roughriders prevented Edmonton from notching a win in Week 1. This Elks team is improved and ready to compete this season. I am not saying they win this game outright but that certainly would not shock me. I feel strongly that the Lions are going to be in a real battle here just to win this game let alone cover the spread. The Elks were 4-5 SU on the road last season and the Lions get caught in a sandwich spot here in terms of the scheduling. Keep in mind, BC's game at Winnipeg is coming up Thursday while Edmonton does not play again until Sunday and that is a non-conference home game for the Elks. 10* EDMONTON +7 |
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06-16-23 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +7 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
CFL Friday Saskatchewan Roughriders +7 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 9 ET - We get line value here because Riders QB Trevor Harris is listed as questionable for his game. Even if he does not go I would expect Mason Fine to get the start here. He has some CFL experience already and looked solid in this preseason. At North Texas in College Football, Fine had 85 TD passes in his final 3 seasons and had a combined ratio of 54 to 12 over his last two seasons there as his TD to INT ratio was fantastic. I like the fact that the Roughriders were the much better team defensively in their week one win. They held a improved Edmonton team to just 13 points and had a big late-game goal-line stand for the win. Though the Blue Bombers have been so strong in recent seasons, I like the fact that they got the win last week. That was a big game against a Hamilton club that they have faced in 2 of the last 3 Grey Cups. Big home win for Winnipeg and that could leave them a little flat here on the road and this is a tough venue to play at. After Blue Bombers got the big home win in Week 1 plus now having another big home game on deck with BC, don't be surprised if Winnipeg struggles just to win this game let alone cover the big spread. SASKATCHEWAN +7 |
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06-15-23 | Calgary v. Ottawa +6.5 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +6.5 vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7:30 ET - Like the home dog here. First off, coming into this season, the projected win total for Calgary was 9.5 after winning 12 games last season while Ottawa's projected win total was 7.5 after winning just 4 games last season. Don't let the week 1 loss to Montreal completely take you off the Redblacks here. The fact is Ottawa was strong defensively, much stronger than the Stampeders, and I look for Calgary to be in a war to win this road game - let alone to cover the spread. We are catching 6.5 points here with a live home dog that allowed about 200 yards less than the Stamps last week. Also, still looking for a home win after not getting one all season last year, I know Ottawa is going to be very hungry here. The Redblacks are stronger in the trenches this season and on defense and, even still without new acquisition at QB (Jeremiah Masoli), they are still the live dog here at home. The home opener for Redblacks after going 0-9 here last season, this one means something extra to say the least! Stamps still a solid team but they have taken a step back this year and gave up a ton of yardage last week. More of the same here. 10* OTTAWA +6.5 |
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06-15-23 | Italy +0.5 v. Spain | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation #235655: Nations League Semi-Finals Thursday 10* Top Play Italy Goal Line +0.5 goals -140 vs Spain @ 2:45 ET - Spain only has 1 win last 5 matches and in the 4 non-victories they have scored an average of only 0.5 goals! I like having the 1/2 goal on our side with Italy here. They will be tough to beat and I would not be surprised to see this one finish as a draw after stoppage time. Look for it to be decided in added extra time like yesterday's Croatia / Netherlands battle. Italy has just 3 losses last 10 matches and I like the cohesiveness of their group and this Spain roster heading into this one is much different than the one that ousted Italy in the 2021 semi-finals. Payback time. Italy is the big dog but I see them being tough to beat here and will gladly grab the 1/2 a goal here as the value play. 10* ITALY +0.5 -140 |
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06-14-23 | Rays -1.5 v. A's | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -155 @ Oakland Athletics @ 9:40 ET - I know Oakland has won 7 straight games but it is ending here in a big way. Glasnow is 17-4 since the 2019 season and has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball when he is healthy. He certainly looks healthy now as Glasnow has progressively gotten better in each of his 3 starts since coming back from injury. So here you have an expected match-up of Glasnow, 4 losses since 2019, versus Luis Medina who has 5 losses this season alone! Medina is 1-5 with a 7.53 ERA and I also like the fact that 36 of 48 Rays wins by at least 2 run margin this season. 39 of 50 Oakland losses by at least a 2-run margin. The value, even at the -155 price range, is on the run line in this one in what should play out as a road rout here. TAMPA BAY -1.5 -155 |
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06-10-23 | Inter Milan +1.5 v. Manchester City | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #224201: Champions League Final Saturday 10* Top Play Inter Milan Goal Line +1.5 -155 vs Manchester City at 3 ET in Istanbul, Turkey - Manchester City is a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line here in the biggest match of the year. However, while everyone is practically handing them the title before this match has even taking place, I have a strong feeling we could see an upset here. Now I am not convinced Inter Milan will do it before extra time nor penalty kicks but I have a strong feeling their tough defensive style of play is going to create headaches for Manchester City. This will keep Inter Milan in this match all the way through. That said, I can not envision City winning this match comfortably, if they even win it all! A lot of value with a tough defensive-minded underdog catching 1.5 goals on the goal line at a reasonable price and so this is the route I am going to go here. Note that, across all competitions, only 3 of last 10 and NONE of last 4 City matches have been Manchester City victories by more than a 1-goal margin. Inter Milan, dating all the way back to mid-/November has had only ONE loss by a multi-goal margin in 42 matches! Yes this is a 41-1 angle in favor of Inter Milan. For sure, Manchester City is something special this season and that really goes without saying. However, this Inter Milan club is tough and even if City finds a way to win this final I feel it will be by the slimmest of margins - 1 goal. 10* Inter Milan +1.5 -155 |
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06-08-23 | BC v. Calgary -3 | Top | 25-15 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders -3 vs BC Lions @ 9 ET - Revenge game for the Stamps. They were knocked out of the post-season by the Lions last fall. Both rosters have made some significant changes heading into this season. Early season games can be tough to call but what I like here about Calgary is the focus and drive of this team entering this season after the disappointing way last season ended. The Stampeders should get a huge game from QB Jake Maier here after the tough playoff game against BC. In looking at the Lions, note that QB Rourke was a big part of the BC offense and he is now in Jacksonville in the NFL with the Jaguars. Also, WR Burnham who was a star for the Lions has now retired. So this is a team that has lost some key pieces from the one that knocked off Calgary in the post-season last year. Although Vernon Adams, Jr could surprise at QB, he is a little difficult to trust stepping into this new situation. I am expecting the Stampeders to take the playoff rematch here to open up the season the right way and they should cover the short number along the way as well. The Stamps have the right mix of veteran guys and young hungry talent to make some noise again this season and they get it done at home here to open up the season. 10* CALGARY -3 |
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06-08-23 | Tigers v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
NOTE: This game was originally going to go Wednesday but postponed by the air quality issues due to smoke in the northeast from the Canadian wildfires. I still like this play the same for Thursday and now Tyler Holton most likely will start. He has had success out of the bullpen for the Tigers but he struggled as a starter at the minor league level. Maybe Reese Olson will provide relief here too. Either way, the Tigers pitcher today is an unproven guy and the Phillies have big edge at home per ORIGINAL WRITE-UP: MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -120 vs Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 ET - Philadelphia is off 4 straight wins and plus their bats exploded Sunday and Monday so after yesterday's 1-0 win I look for the bats to wake back up today for Philly tonight. They can carry momentum from those earlier blowout wins (19 runs in 2 games) right into this game Wednesday. Tigers have lost 7 of 8 games and scored an average of only 2 runs in those 8 games. The Phillies outhit Detroit 11-3 Monday and then the Tigers again had just 3 hits yesterday. The Phillies have scored 6 runs per game last 5 games and the first 3 of those were on the road. In last 7 home games, Phillies have averaged 5 runs per game. Tigers will not be able to keep up with the hosts in this one and Detroit ends up getting blown out yet again. The Tigers are starting Reese Olson and he is a great story and had a surprisingly strong first start for Detroit in his MLB debut after making some adjustments in the minors. Trust me the Phillies watched what the White Sox did (and did not!) do against him in his MLB debut and will make the right adjustments here. As for Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler, he has a great long-term history in starts at Citizens Bank Park and I expect a strong outing from him. More of the same Tigers' struggles at the plate here in another Phillies home win. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -120 |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets -2 v. Heat | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets -2 or -2.5 @ Miami @ 8:30 ET - The Nuggets are 3-0 SU the last 3 times they have entered a game off a loss by 6 or less points. Given that straight up (SU) trend as well as the fact the line here is only 2 or 2.5, I do not have any hesitation in laying the points in this bounce back spot for Denver. Note that they outrebounded the Heat in the Game 2 loss. They also led the game by 8 points entering the 4th quarter. The fact the Nuggets fell short as a result of getting outplayed in that 4th quarter on their home floor will only strengthen their resolve here. The Nuggets were outscored by 18 points from beyond the arc in that game and it was the difference maker. The fact the Heat knocked down about 50 percent of threes and hit 17 of them while Denver hit 11 means that the final score would have been Nuggets by 15 if you take the threes out of the equation. Of course you can not do that and I had the Heat in Game 2 on the MONEY LINE as an outright +300 winner and expected them to respond big Sunday. However, I now expect Denver to make adjustments too and they respond here and get the road win. Note that Denver is 7-0 SU when they allow 100 or more points in their prior game. Nuggets D up here and the big road win by 3 or more. 10* DENVER -2 or -2.5 |
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06-06-23 | Tigers v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 +105 vs Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 ET - Philadelphia is off 3 straight wins and plus their bats exploded Sunday plus yesterday and they can carry momentum from those blowout wins right into this game Tuesday. Tigers have lost 6 of 7 games and scored an average of only 2 runs in those 7 games. The Phillies outhit Detroit 11-3 yesterday and have scored 7.5 runs per game last 4 games and the first 3 of those were on the road. In last 6 home games, Phillies have averaged 5.7 runs per game. Tigers will not be able to keep up with the hosts in this one and Detroit ends up getting blown out yet again. The Tigers Alexander is 10-22 in his career and is making his first start of this season after working out of the bullpen exclusively thusfar. Alexander has a 6.38 ERA and has been hit at a .303 clip in his 16 outings this season. Walker does not have great overall numbers for the Phillies but, in his home starts, he has a 3.60 ERA and has held opponents to a .191 batting average. More of the same here in another Phillies home rout. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +105 |
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06-05-23 | Tigers v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -115 vs Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 ET - Wentz has a 1-5 record and a 7.28 ERA for the Tigers. Nola has traditionally been a great pitcher at home throughout his Phillies career. Philadelphia is off B2B wins and plus their bats exploded yesterday and they can carry momentum from that blowout win right into this game. Tigers have lost 5 of 6 games and scored an average of only 2 runs in those 6 games. Phillies have scored 7.3 runs per game last 3 games and those were on the road. In last 5 home games, Phillies have averaged 5.2 runs per game. Tigers will not be able to keep up with the hosts in this one and Detroit ends up getting blown out. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -115 |
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06-04-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Miami Heat Money Line +300 @ Denver Nuggets @ 8 ET - For those of you that prefer taking the points of course you can do that instead if you wish (currently +8.5 is out there) but I am going with the +300 on the money line here. Note that Miami saw Martin, Strus and Robinson combine for 2 of 23 from the field Thursday. The Heat also had only 2 free throw attempts in the game. Miami also saw Jimmy Butler score just 13 points. All of these insane numbers and yet the Heat still won the game. Wait, you are telling me Denver won and not Miami? Well technically you are 100% correct but the fact is Miami won the game from the field despite those numbers above. Indeed the Nuggets scored 14 more points than the Heat from the free throw line. This means that Miami (104-93 losers in Game 1) actually won the game by 3 points from the field. When I look at this series I feel certain that the Nuggets can win at Miami and the Heat can win at Denver. The Heat will respond here and are very well coached (admittedly Denver is too) and I could see the Nuggets getting caught feeling a little too good about themselves after the way Game 1 went. In further support of this pick and in terms of having the guts to take a +300 money line, note that the Heat are 9-0 SU (STRAIGHT UP) the last 9 times they have entered a game off a loss by a margin of a dozen or less points. The points are a generous offer here for sure but we won't need them so I am going for a triple your money wager here. Take the Heat on the money line as this streak reaches 10 in a row! MIAMI +300 |
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06-01-23 | Heat +9 v. Nuggets | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Heat +9 @ Denver Nuggets @ 8:30 ET - I really like both these teams. Guys who follow me closely know I rode both the Nuggets and Heat heavily in the conference finals. That said, I got the match-up I wanted and I feel we have a solid competitive balance here. Certainly the Nuggets are the stronger overall team and deserve this heavy line generally speaking but Miami is a very good team. Also, this is not a normal situation here either. Rest is a good thing but too much rest can lead to rust. That is an issue here for Denver. There already is a normal automatic layoff between the conference finals and the NBA finals. That said, the fact the Heat / Celtics series went 7 games did not necessarily hurt them entering this series. It could hurt them if this series goes deep but early on it actually is an advantage that Miami could be more game ready here considering the fact that the Nuggets have not played since Monday. No not the Monday of THIS week but the Monday of LAST week. So a weak and a half later Denver is taking the floor again finally for a real game. Nothing compares to real game action no matter how much you practice. So the point is Denver is likely rusty enough that the Heat can take advantage early on in this one. I still think Nuggets find a way to win this one but I do not think they win this by double digits. Grab the big points here. MIAMI +9 |
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05-29-23 | Heat +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Monday Miami Heat Money Line +250 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - For those of you that prefer taking the points of course you can do that instead if you wish (currently some +7.5 is out there) but I am going with the +250 on the money line here. First off, Boston is trying to do something that has never been done in terms of coming all the way back from down 3-0 in an NBA series to win 4 straight and take the series. Secondly, the Heat are so well-coached and have a huge experience edge with Spoelstra over Mazzulla as I have mentioned in my prior write-ups. Thirdly and, for me, a huge key here is a look inside that Game 6 boxscore in the thriller that Boston won by just a single point on a late tap-in. Note that the Big 3 of Boston - Brown, Smart, Tatum - totaled 78 points and shot a respectable 24 of 53 from the field. Conversely, the Big 3 of Miami - Butler, Adebayo, Vincent - totaled only 50 on disastrous 15 of 55 shooting from the field. Look at those numbers again. Look at the final score again. I am telling you straight up that I will actually be SHOCKED, given all of the above, if the Heat do NOT pull off what the public would perceive as a SHOCKER and win this game OUTRIGHT! Seriously, I am not exaggerating here. Given the number above the Heat should have lost by at least 20 points in that last game and they did not as they were 0.1 seconds from an outright win. That says a lot. I am confident in Spoelstra and in Butler and the fact they will bounce back here after the horrible shooting in Game 6. Grab the points if you want but my play is on the outright money line winner. MIAMI +250 |
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05-28-23 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 +115 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:08 ET - This is a rare plus plus situation with a quality team. The Phillies are the defending NL champs but we can get them +1.5 runs +115 here - hence the plus plus - and I will not pass up on the value here. On the surface, based on the pitching match-up, it looks like a mismatch. However, Dylan Covey capable of doing a respectable job here and has looked manageable in recent work. At the same time, let's not forget Spencer Strider has not been as strong of late and he also got rocked when he most recently faced the Phillies in the post-season last year. The Phillies have some confidence from B2B wins so far in this series. Additionally, the Braves have now lost 10 of 16 and 3 of those 6 wins were by just a single run! Also, Atlanta scored an average of only 2.8 runs in those 10 losses! This is too much underdog value with a quality lineup. The Phillies bullpen has also been stepping up of late. More of the same here. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 +115 |
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05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat +3 | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Heat +3 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - I just can not see Gabe Vincent missing this game. The Heat know a win tonight is critical. Vincent was able to take Game 5 off because of the situation but now in Game 6, and considering the injury is not major, I feel strongly that he will be back. Even if he is not, I look for Jimmy Butler to have a much better game on his home floor. He and all of the Heat players should bounce back. They have been so strong this year when at home and off a loss. Miami is 17-4 the last 21 times they have entered a home game coming off a loss. This includes a perfect 8-0 the last 8 times! This is a SU record but, of course, any SU win tonight is also an ATS win for the Heat as they are catching 3 points here. So the system fits and we will not hesitate to back it. Also, Boston is 0-6 the last 6 times they have entered a road game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. So this is a double perfect spot as both these team trends are also perfect in this post-season. Indeed I am expecting the outright win here but I will grab the points just in case the Heat fall just short but I am looking for a major response here at home and the long-term numbers in this situation certainly support that. MIAMI +3 |
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05-25-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Miami Heat +8.5 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - I did have Boston in Game 4 and expected Celtic pride to rise up and avoid the sweep. However, as I mentioned in that write-up I sill expect Miami to end up winning this series. Even if that does not happen, I do expect them to stay inside this inflated number. The Heat are up 3-1 in this series. Now, because Boston finally got a win but is down 3-1 and returning home and has a 34-year old coach and first beat a Hawks team that did not even have a winning record in the regular season and then beat a Sixers team that is softer than a paper towel and plays without true hunger and passion more often than not...now, because of all that, this Celtics team is supposed to blowout Miami in Game 5? I am not buying any of this for one second! The fact is the Heat have been fantastic in this post-season, playing with a ton of confidence, winning games with hustle and heart, playing with passion, and they are coached by Erik Spoelstra who will be coaching his 177th PLAYOFF GAME - all with the Heat. Compare this to Mazzulla who just coached his first ever season in the NBA. I know Boston won Game 4 by 15 in Miami but the Celtics outscored the Heat by 30 points from 3-point land as they were hot from downtown while Miami struggled to hit from deep. I did like the fact that the Heat resumed being the stronger rebounding team in Game 4 and I expect more of the same here. Miami has only had one losing streak (3 games) since early March as when they have entered a game off a standalone loss they have won the next game 8 of 9 times including all 3 times in this post-season. Even if they do not win outright here, look for them to get at least th cover and yes I am aware of the questionable status of guard Gabe Vincent but this team has battled through injuries all post-season. MIAMI +8.5 |
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05-23-23 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Boston Celtics +2 @ Miami Heat @ 8:30 ET - Even though I have been on Miami throughout this series and do expect them to win the series eventually. I don't see that happening tonight. The Celtics actually had 98 field goal attempts compared to 81 for the Heat in Game 3 on Sunday. Boston was done in by poor shooting and the fact that Miami shot lights out. That said, the value is with the Celtics here in desperation mode. The Heat have the coaching edge big-time in this match-up but Boston has a very talented cast and they can will this team to victory if they want it bad enough. I think this Celtics team absolutely does want to win this one for pride and to get one more home in at least as this would send the series back to Boston for Game 5. Note that the Celtics made just 26% of threes Sunday while the Heat knocked down 54%. That was your game right there. Rebounds were 57 to 35 in favor of Boston plus a crazy 21 to 1 edge for the Celtics in terms of offensive rebounds. So some of the hustle stats were there for the C's Sunday and odds in terms of regression to the mean certainly would suggest that Miami regresses in Game 4 while the Celtics improve from the floor in Game 4. BOSTON +2 |
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05-23-23 | Girona +0.5 v. Celta de Vigo | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
Rotation #201881: Spanish La Liga Tuesday Girona +0.5 goals -120 @ Celta de Vigo @ 1:30 ET - It is true that Girona has struggled on the road this season but they are in much better current form than Celta de Vigo. Also, Girona is currently #7 in the standings so they are still trying to lock up a spot for European Football which would be a major accomplishment for them. They also lost 1-0 to Celta de Vigo in the reverse fixture earlier this season. They also carry motivation here from that as well as entering this match off a loss after having played so well for an extended stretch. So all of this sets up well for value on the road club in that a victory or a draw (either way) puts us in the winners circle. That is key as Celta de Vigo has only 10 victories in 35 matches this season and Girona has only 13 losses in 35 matches this season! GIRONA +0.5 goals -120 |
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05-22-23 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 113-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Monday Denver Nuggets +3.5 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - All the pressure on the Lakers here. Nuggets would be okay if there was a game 5 in Denver. LA will not see a Game 5 unless they win tonight. Lakers have not handled the pressure well so far in this series and I like the fact that Nuggets won Game 3 despite Jokic scoring "only" 24 points. This says a lot about how strong this Denver team is and they also got outrebounded in that game. So when you combine all those factors with the fact we can get 3.5 points here with a Nuggets team that has won 5 straight games and 11 of 14 in this post-season, you have value on your side with this one. The Lakers have lost 3 straight of course and are just 7-7 last 14 games in this post-season. Also one of their round two wins came by just 3 points and one of their round one wins came in OT. We have a lot of value here in a game the Nuggets could win outright but also could cash for us even with a SU loss as this could be a tight finish. Keep in mind, the Lakers biggest lead in Game 3 here in LA was 2 points while the Nuggets led by as many as 14. The visitors just have too much for the hosts here. DENVER +3.5 |
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05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 102-128 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Miami Heat +3.5 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Heat are up 2-0 in this series. Now, because Boston is down 0-2 and has a 34-year old coach and first beat a Hawks team that did not even have a winning record in the regular season and then beat a Sixers team that is softer than a paper towel and plays without true hunger and passion more often than not...now, because of all that, this Celtics team is supposed to go down to Miami and turn all this around in one game? I am not buying any of this for one second! The fact is the Heat are 5-0 at home in this post-season, playing with a ton of confidence, winning games with hustle and heart, playing with passion, and they are coached by Erik Spoelstra who will be coaching his 175th PLAYOFF GAME - all with the Heat. Compare this to Mazzulla who just coached his first ever season in the NBA. Considering all of the above factors I do like the Heat to go up 3-0 in this series but the money line is only in the +135 range and, in a case like this, considering I can get 3.5 points with the underdog, I am going to side with the points rather than the money line in case Miami falls just short. But look for the Heat to get the job done yet again as they win their 8th straight home dating back to a loss in way back in late March. MIAMI +3.5 |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets +6 v. Lakers | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets +6 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - Much is being made of the Lakers returning home and how they are now going to respond and that everything will be okay in La-La Land. I beg to differ! The most recent home game for the Lakers saw them allow 103 field goal attempts (they had just 75) in the 122-101 game that eliminated the Warriors from the post-season. Golden State lost that game for one key reason and that was simply horrible shooting overall including from 3-point land. The home game before that saw the Lakers go 20 of 20 from the line while the Warriors had just 9 free throw attempts. Even with that the Lakers won the game by just 3 points. That said, and with knowledge the free throw disparity between the Nuggets and Lakers will NOT be the same here (Lakers 62 to 26 edge in FT attempts in last 2 home games of series with GSW). Denver has looked very strong so far in this series and remember their 3 post-season defeats have come by 5 and 6 and 7 points and one of those was in OT. This team getting 6 points against a team they are clearly superior to especially when you consider the Nuggets have NO pressure here makes them a VERY dangerous dog in this spot. All the pressure is on the Lakers. The underdog has a great shot at the upset here but certainly the Nuggets should at least do enough for the cover the way I see this one unfolding! 10* DENVER +6 |
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05-19-23 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Friday Miami Heat +9 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - Boston might bounce back and win this game but I am still going to challenge them to win big after we rode Miami in game one to a solid outright upset win. The fact is the Celtics got past a mediocre Atlanta team and a dysfunctional soft weak 76ers team to get to this point. They are facing a real team now in Miami that is also so well coached. The fact is the Celtics are coached by 34 year-old Mazzulla and I think this is the series where his lack of high-level experience is finally going to be exploited. The Hawks did not have the talent to beat this Celtics team. The 76ers did not have the heart or the coaching ability (yes Doc Rivers deserved blame too) to get past Boston as the talent went to waste. This Heat team has talent and hunger and an X-factor in Jimmy Butler as he continues to be playoff Jimmy in this post-season. More of the same here. Give me the points against a Boston team that is 8-10 SU last 18 home games. This team can't even win a good percentage of home games come playoff time let alone cover a double digit spread. Grab the big points as the Heat have played 12 post-season games thus far and only 1 was a loss by a double digit margin. MIAMI +9 |
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05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - This is just a typical contrarian play for me. The zig zag theory is in effect here because when the markets zig I prefer to zag. The point being that most will be backing the Lakers here after they fell just short in Game 1 and so most will be looking at the underdog as that is the traditional zig zag approach. However, what I see in this game is that Denver is going to be a very tough match-up for the Lakers and the Nuggets also will have proven to have learned their lesson from Game 1. What I mean by this is that they let the Lakers get back into the game late as Denver blew a massive and comfortable lead they had for much of the game. The Nuggets will not make the same mistake twice and I look for them to win this one big by double digits. DENVER -5.5 |
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05-17-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Miami Heat +8.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Celtics were gift-wrapped this appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals. They faced a Hawks team that barely made the playoffs. Then they faced a 76ers team that has a guy by the name of Embiid that should return his MVP Trophy and the NBA should reissue it to Jokic. The 76ers Embiid and Harden - to lose those final two games and put the stat lines together they had - is absolutely inexcusable. You did not see heart, you did not see effort, you did not see the heart of a champion. Jimmy Butler has that heart and he is the leader of this team. Even battling through injuries they have made it this far because they are also well-coached unlike Doc Rivers running a 3-ring circus in Philly. The point is that this Boston team is not what they used to be, not the same team they were when Brad Stevens was patrolling the sidelines rather than sitting in the front office. They simply ran into a Philly team that has so much talent but was poorly coached and did not show heart and fortitude. Simply put, the Sixers are a joke. The reason that has so much to do with this play is because now Boston runs into a true foe that can battle them all over the floor. Yes they have injuries but these guys play hard and they are gamers and the energy is infectious all over the floor. So the Heat are going to battle hard. I am not saying they win this game or win this series but the Celtics are about to face something they have not yet faced in this post-season. A team that is talented AND well-coached AND scrappy AND hard-working. The Heat have it all and they will be in this game to the final minute the way I see it. Give me these huge points. MIAMI +8.5 |
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 126-132 | Push | 0 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Denver Nuggets -6 vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:30 ET - Game 6 of the Lakers prior series they were hosting Golden State. Take a look at this: Warriors 103, Lakers 75. Now, of course we all know this was not the final score or else there would have been a Game 7 at Golden State and the Lakers would not even be here. But the point is the Lakers won Game 6 despite the Warriors having 28 more FG attempts. Yes LA got to the line a ton but the biggest problem was the Warriors shot horribly from the field. That is not happening here with this Lakers opponent. The Nuggets are rested and ready and are strong. Jamaal Murray is on the injury report as questionable with illness but we also saw that in the final game of the series with the Suns. The fact is that Denver has won 8 of 11 post-season games and 7 of the 8 wins have come by a margin of at least 9 points. The Nuggets are so strong at home and the Lakers 4 post-season losses have all come by double digits and this one will too. DENVER -6 |
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05-15-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play Dallas Stars Puck Line -1.5 +125 vs Seattle Kraken @ 8:10 ET - If you like Dallas to win this game - and as -200 favorite they certainly are expected to win - the key here is where the value is in this scenario. There is still inherent risk in laying big prices with money lines. I laid -180 yesterday with Edmonton and despite the Oilers notching 40 shots on goal - nearly twice as many as Vegas - they still lost the game. That said, I really do like the Stars a lot here on home ice and there is justification for grabbing the puck line here. Again, the odds makers are telling you that if these teams played 3 straight times at Dallas repeatedly the Stars should average taking 2 out of 3 games - that is what that -200 price is telling you. The key here is we can get a lot of value with the Stars in the +125 range by laying 1.5 goals on the puck line. What are the odds that a Dallas win here comes by at least a 2-goal margin? The odds are actually very good! Dating back to the regular season 13 of last 17 Dallas home wins have come by at least a 2-goal margin and that includes all 4 in these playoffs! As for Seattle, their first loss in this post-season was by 1 goal but all 5 of their losses since then have been by a multi-goal margin. As a hockey fan, I am very impressed (and somewhat surprised) by what coach Dave Hakstol and these Kraken have accomplished in this post-season. But winning a Game 7 on the road against an angry Stars team with a lot of playoff experience is not only not going to be easy...it is going to prove virtually impossible. The home team steps up in a big way here! 10* DALLAS -1.5 +125 |
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05-14-23 | 76ers +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 88-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Philadelphia 76ers Money Line +230 @ Boston Celtics @ 3:30 ET - The Celtics have home court here so they are practically being handed their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals by most pundits. However, the road team is actually 7-2 SU in Boston's last 9 games. So you might think that stat is just because the Celtics are so strong on the road but it is NOT just that. Boston has actually lost 3 of last 4 home playoff games. Also, the Celtics are only at .500 (straight up!) in their last 20 home post-season games! That said, the ability to get even BETTER than 2 to 1 odds on the Sixers to surprise in this game is just too good to pass up! Many think Philly only goes as Harden goes. However, the 76ers won Game 5 by DOUBLE DIGITS despite Harden making only 4 field goals and just 1 from deep! He did not have a big scoring game yet Philly won the game big and that was here in Boston. Embiid dominated, Maxey had a huge game, Harris was solid in that one and Harden was good but not spectacular. All these guys are capable of stepping up again. Embiid is capable of taking over in this game if he puts his mind to it. Harden could take over and have a massive game and that would make a Sixers win even more likely. but even if Harden does not, I point to the most recent Philly win in this series and that was here in Boston. A key here is confidence and the Sixers have already won here twice in this series. All the pressure is on the Celtics as they are expected to win at home. We all know what often happens when a team is expected to win and they are harboring all the pressure. I look for a loose and relaxed and confident Philly team to shock everyone and get the outright win here! Not only is Boston 1-3 SU last 4 home games, the 76ers are 6-1 SU last 7 road games. They have traveled well and they do it again here. No points needed, the Sixers win this outright. PHILADELPHIA +230 |
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05-12-23 | Knicks +6.5 v. Heat | Top | 92-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Friday New York Knicks +6.5 @ Miami Heat @ 7:30 ET - Waiting has paid off as this line is all the way up to a 6.5 on this one. The Knicks could have closed shop in Game 5 and headed to the golf course but they proved they are hungry and are not done yet. With a win tonight Game 7 is in New York. Wouldn't that be nice? Yes it would and we all saw what the Celtics did at Philly last night in a similar situation. No the Knicks are not the Celtics but the Heat are certainly not the Sixers either! The point is that an outright upset would not surprise me at all here and yet we have 6.5 points to work with here. I'll take it. Two of the Knicks losses in this series have been by single digits and their confidence is back after winning game 5 at home. Jimmy Butler is the best player on the floor for sure but the Knicks have shown they have other players who will step up for them for sure and they are hungry here and will be scrappy on the road after the locker-room incident they had here in Game 4. They want tonight to be different and they have the horses to get it done! NEW YORK KNICKS +6.5 |
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05-09-23 | 76ers +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 115-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - This one is all about the line value. The series is tied 2-2. Each team has won on the other teams home floor. Yet home floor is of course a factor in the lines. That said, this is big value with the big points here. The Sixers got that huge win in Game 4 as the Game 1 Harden showed up again and simply would not let Philly lose. Of course if the Sixers lost that game they were likely finished as they would have been down 3-1 and would have had to win twice in Boston. They were very close to being in a nearly impossible situation. However, oftentimes one key break like this can lead to a domino effect and now the 76ers could shock here. They have confidence and they have momentum and here we can have a lot of value because of the 7.5 points. We do not need Philly to win outright to cash our ticket and yet the fact is they already won here once and this Celtics team is not as strong as recent seasons. The Sixers have really closed the gap on Boston - finally - and this could be the year they finally get past their nemesis. This year is definitely different as the Celtics won the most recent playoff series by a combined 8 games to 1 but that was with Brad Stevens as their head coach. Now it is 34-year old Joe Mazzulla. The Sixers might find a way tonight for the SU but, either way, I am not expecting much of a margin in this game and this one should down to the wire. Yes I know Embiid is questionable but I can't see him missing a game of this magnitude. PHILADELPHIA +7.5 |
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05-07-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +3 | Top | 115-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Philadelphia 76ers +3 vs Boston Celtics @ 3:30 ET - This is it for Philly for all intents and purposes. If they lose this game they are down 3 games to 1 and would have to win twice at Boston to win this series. Basically this game is about as must-win as it gets without truly being an elimination game. Now, of course, just because a team needs to win does not mean it will win. However, the motivation and hunger and desire and home court edge all are with Philadelphia in this one. Also, a nice angle supports this play as Philly enters this game off B2B losses after winning 5 straight games to open up the post-season. Note that you have to go all the way back to October to find the last time Philly entered a home game off consecutive losses and did not win the game. Indeed, from late October onward, the 76ers are a PERFECT 5-0 SU when they are at home and are entering the game on a losing streak of at least 2 games. Those 5 wins were by an average margin of 11 points per game and all 5 of them were by at least 8 points. However, the money line on this game is only in the +120 range and we can get as much as +3 with the spread currently so I am going to suggest grabbing the points just in case Philly falls just short here. However, I absolutely expect they are going to get another win here and improve to 6-0 SU in this situation! PHILADELPHIA +3 |
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05-04-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 140 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Dallas Stars Puck Line -1.5 +140 vs Seattle Kraken @ 9:40 ET - I like the way the Stars responded down 4-2 after one period at home. They still ended up losing that game in overtime but this Dallas team showed how they are capable of playing against Seattle and did not allow any goals after the first period debacle. The Stars know they can afford to go down 2-1 in this series and they had been so strong defensively and in goal in their recent wins over the Wild to close out that series with 3 straight wins. The Kraken have been a big surprise but I just can't see them winning both these games at Dallas. That said, the Stars are certainly justified as a huge money line favorite here but we turn to the puck line for the value here. I am grabbing the +140 with the knowledge that most of the Kraken losses of late have been by big margins and same goes for most of the Stars recent wins. DALLAS -1.5 +140 |
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05-03-23 | 76ers +10 v. Celtics | Top | 87-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +10 @ Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - When I played Philly in Game One I definitely did not expect them to win outright. However, now that they did this really has everyone lining up on Boston here. In the traditional zig-zag theory of handicapping, when the markets zig I like to zag. So, the point is, this is a bit of a contrarian play but I am confident the 76ers will stay within this inflated number here. The Celtics have not been the same team defensively recently as evident in the Hawks series. Also, as mentioned in my Game One write-up: the 76ers are without Embiid most likely in Game 2 of this series. However, they did play well without him this season. Also, getting double digits is a lot of points when you are a team as strong as Philadelphia is. The Sixers also still have a big rest edge here as they quickly dispatched of the Nets. Remember that also including winning the clinching Game 4 at Brooklyn and without Embiid. The Celtics, on the other hand, had to fight hard to get past Atlanta. The Hawks were scrappy with Boston in the first round. I am not saying Philly wins this outright of course. But I am saying they have enough edges to keep this margin single digits throughout the match-up. This should be quite a battle as the Sixers are better than people realize even when Embiid is not on the floor. So I am sure Harden will not have such a big game in this one like he did in Game One but others are certainly capable of huge performances too. This team about much more than just Embiid. Also, the Celtics never led Game One by more than 12 points. Just so much value with the big points here the way I see it. 10* PHILADELPHIA +10 |
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05-02-23 | Heat +6.5 v. Knicks | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Miami Heat +6.5 @ New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - This is too many points the way I see it. The Heat have Jimmy Butler listed as questionable for this one but I see no way he will not play here. Also, the Knicks do have Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson both listed as questionable on their report. It is not like New York is 100 percent healthy. As for Miami they have been missing guys for awhile and yet still others have stepped up and I look for them to continue to do. I grabbed the money line in Game 1 of this series in Miami's upset and was happy to get the bigger payback but this time I feel the Knicks might scratch out a tight win and so the value is with the points in this one. As I mentioned in my Game 1 write-up, "The Knicks just beat Cleveland. However, the Cavaliers had not even been in the playoffs for 5 years. Now New York faces a real playoff team. The Heat are in the post-season for the 4th straight year. They have been to the NBA Finals once and the Conference Finals twice in the past 3 seasons alone. They just beat a Bucks team that not only had a fantastic regular season, they have a great recent playoff reputation as well with 7 straight playoff appearances and also a recent NBA Championship. The Heat lost guys to injury and it did not matter. The key is that it was NOT just about Jimmy Butler either. Yes he is the star but other guys have stepped up. If these guys can beat the Bucks and score on them like they did, you know the Knicks are going to have to really amp up their offensive game to have a chance in this series. New York averaged 100 ppg in the 5 games of the series with the Cavs." All of the above considered, getting about a half-dozen points to work with here is a great value for us. MIAMI +6.5 |
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05-01-23 | 76ers +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - 76ers are without Embiid most likely in Game 1 of this series. However, they did play well without him this season. Also, getting double digits is a lot of points when you are a team as strong as Philadelphia is. The Sixers also have a big rest edge here as they quickly dispatched of the Nets. Remember that also including winning the clinching Game 4 at Brooklyn and without Embiid. The Celtics, on the other hand, had to fight hard to get past Atlanta. The Hawks were scrappy with Boston in the first round. I am not saying Philly wins this outright of course. But I am saying they have enough edges to keep this margin single digits throughout the match-up. This should be quite a battle as the Sixers are better than people realize even when Embiid is not on the floor. 10* PHILADELPHIA +10.5 |
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04-30-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
NHL Sunday 10* Top Play Colorado Avalanche -1.5 +125 vs Seattle Kraken @ 9:35 ET - The Avalanche have had their last two wins in this series each come by a multiple goal margin and I expect more of the same here. The Avs are a big home favorite for a reason. Seattle had their chance at home to close this series out but Colorado is the defending champion on of the NHL and they certainly looked like that in Game 6. They wrapped up the regular season winning 16 of 19 and 7 of last 8 home wins in the regular season also by a multi-goal margin. The Kraken had a chance, as noted above, to finish this in Game 6. But only did Seattle not do that, the game was not even close. Colorado seemed to kick things up a notch and the Kraken could not match that. Look for that to again be the case here because, of course, there is no way the Avs will come out flat in this Game 7 situation on home ice. That is bad news for Seattle as this Avalanche team is just too much. They have turned the tide in this series and will not stop now. 10* COLORADO -1.5 +125 |
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04-29-23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Brighton & Hove Albion -1 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #200134: English Premier League Saturday Brighton & Hove -1 -120 vs Wolverhampton @ 10 AM ET - Wolverhampton has won just 2 of 16 road matches this season and is facing an angry host here. Brighton has lost just 4 of 14 home matches this season but they are coming off B2B disappointing results and this has them fired up here. They will respond big on their home pitch. They had a scoreless draw end in a loss on penalty kicks to Manchester United in the English FA Cup two matches ago. After that heart-breaking loss they were flat against Nottingham Forest and paid the price with a 3-1 loss on the road. Brighton will surely be at their best today to make up for those losses and I am expecting a blowout home win to result. BRIGHTON -1 -120 |
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04-28-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Friday Sacramento Kings +7.5 @ Golden State Warriors @ 8 ET - Line moving toward Golden State at home, of course. I am grabbing the value on the other side of the move. The Kings still believe and with one win they send this series back to Sacramento for Game 7. There has been one blowout in this series. The other 4 games have been decided by an average margin of 4.8 points. The Kings are 8-2 SU the last 10 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of at least two games. Not only is that impressive, we do not need a SU win to get the cash in this case. We also have 7.5 points to work with. I like our chances! SACRAMENTO +7.5 |
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04-27-23 | Celtics v. Hawks +7 | Top | 128-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks +7 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - Some might look and say there is no way the Hawks have a chance here because it was a Trae Young miracle in Game 5. While certainly his feats were ultra-impressive, the fact is that the Hawks played an all-around great game. The rest of the team shot 14 of 28 from distance plus contributed 81 points and played good clean basketball by limiting turnovers. This was on the road AT Boston. So I am not saying the Hawks will win this game outright but I do feel we have excellent line value here with the big points at home and the fact that Atlanta has shown they will not quit in this series. The Hawks home record this season is nearly identical to the Celtics road record this season and expecting Game 6 to go to the wire is really not asking too much here. This game could go either way late the way I see it so having the 7 points on your side is a huge benefit. 10* ATLANTA +7 |
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04-25-23 | Kings v. Oilers -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 115 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play Edmonton Oilers Puck Line -1.5 +115 vs Los Angeles Kings @ 9:38 ET - This series is very close to being 3-1 Kings but the fact is the Oilers rallied for the tying goal in Game 4 and finally got an OT win to go their way and that changes everything. The reality is that, as close as this series is to being 3-1 Los Angeles, it could just as easy be over and have been a 4-0 sweep for the Oilers! Give credit to the Kings for their moxie in this series but Edmonton has been the better team throughout. Now, with all the momentum on their side and back on home ice, Oilers roll to a big home win here. They certainly don't want to chance this game to overtime and I look for them to be relentless. Keep in mind, the Kings only 2 wins in this series have been in overtime. The Oilers did have a 4-2 win here on home ice and I believe that was a heart-breaking loss for LA in Game 4 while Edmonton is absolutely going to build off that win. What a win for the Oilers and now they are at home and can get their first lead of this series. They have deserved to be leading in this series and now the set-up is perfect for them to get what they deserve. 10* EDMONTON -1.5 +115 |
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04-21-23 | Rockies v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -135 vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - I know Davis had a surprisingly good first start for the Rockies but I expect a reality check for him here! The fact is he struggled in spring training with too many walks so he started this season in AAA and he also had trouble with too many walks. However, he got called up to the bigs due to injury issues. Now Davis faces a fired up Phillies lineup on the road after they surprisingly got shutout by his teammates yesterday. The Rockies are known for struggling on the road and I feel sure lightning will not strike twice here. In other words, after getting shutout by a 5-0 final yesterday, look for the Phillies to respond strong here. They also will have Aaron Nola on the mound. He is known for dominating at home and his stuff should be sharp here. He has a solid k/bb ratio this season and Nola has settled in decently since his first start of the season was an ugly one. I expect his breaking stuff to give the road-adverse Rockies a lot of trouble here and the Phillies pull away as this game goes on. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -135 |