Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-04-22 | Warriors v. Pelicans -4 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans -4 vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:40 ET - The Pelicans are off an unbelieve, inexcusable OT loss at Los Angeles when they missed 2 free throws with under 2 seconds to go in the game. That then allowed the Lakers get off a 3 at the buzzer which did go in to force OT. After LA won the game in OT you know New Orleans is going to be extremely fired up here. Not only that, the Pelicans are getting back Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones for this game. Those reinforcements will help and what also helps is they are catching the Warriors in a back to back. Golden State has been getting good production from their starting five. But the Warriors bench has struggled and that means if the Warriors starters are worn out from the B2B than this one sets up to be very tough sledding for GS. Look for NO to take advantage. the Pelicans will run them right out of the arena and Golden State has been struggling defensively so this sets up for a big-time home blowout here. 10* NEW ORLEANS -4 |
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11-02-22 | Wizards v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 vs Washington Wizards @ 6:10 ET - The Wizards have not been traveling far but still they are bouncing around quite a bit right now. Washington was at home than on the road at Boston then at home versus 76ers and now on the road at Philly to face the Sixers again. This is also a 4 games in 6 days situation for Washington so this is all part of their toughest test so far this season in terms of scheduling. I like the fact that the Sixers, even without Embiid, were able to win by 7 on the road at Washington Monday. This is a Philly team that is finally starting to find its footing. The 76ers have won 3 straight games on the road and also won their last home game by 14 points. I look for them to build their run to 4 straight wins even if Embiid is not back tonight. But I do expect him back and also want to note that even though they are not stars, Kispert and Wright being out for the Wizards is still taking away a couple guys that average about 24 minutes a game. They are rotation players that Washington wants to use as part of the core group for the team! As for the Sixers, the only current "injury" situation was Embiid's illness and I would be surprised if he misses tonight's game. Look for the Wizards to run out of gas as this game goes on and the deeper Sixers again take advantage just like they did Monday with their big 3rd quarter in DC leading to solid win. 10* PHILADELPHIA -7.5 |
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11-01-22 | Wolves +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +5 or +5.5 @ Phoenix Suns @ 10 ET - When something looks too good to be true it usually is. Keep in mind, Phoenix is 4-0 at home this season and the Suns enter this game on a 4-game winning streak in which all 4 wins were by a double digit margin. That said, how can the Suns have opened up as only a 4-point favorite at home? Exactly! Sure enough this line is already up to as high as a 5.5 in some spots and I love being a contrarian in situations like this. Minnesota went out and made the big move for Gobert in the off-season because they want to be a force to be reckoned with. To prove they have indeed arrived in the Western Conference, the Wolves must prove they can compete with one of the best teams in the West (and in all of NBA) in the form of the Suns. I feel Minny is going to be extra hungry here as a result and I love having the handful of points being offered here too as an outright upset would not surprise me in the least. If the Wolves do fall short, look for it to be by the slimmest of margins. 10* MINNESOTA +5 or +5.5 |
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10-31-22 | 76ers -4 v. Wizards | Top | 118-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -4 @ Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - The Wizards are playing in a B2B for the first time this season and yesterday's game was on the road at Boston. This is also a 3 games in 4 days situation for Washington so it is their toughest test so far this season in terms of scheduling. Yes, the Wizards get the benefit of being at home for this one but that is also helping to keep this line very manageable on a Philly team that is finally starting to find its footing. The 76ers have won B2B games on the road and will be hosting the Wizards on Wednesday so they are fully focused on Washington here and I look for them to build their run to 3 straight wins! Look for the Wizards to run out of gas as this game goes on and the rested Sixers take advantage. 10* PHILADELPHIA -4 |
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10-30-22 | Warriors v. Pistons +8 | Top | 114-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons +8 vs Golden State Warriors @ 6 ET - Back to back spot for Warriors who are winless on the road this season and they went into overtime at Charlotte last night so not a good situation here. Not only could Steph Curry and company need a little extra rest tonight, Jordan Poole is dealing with an ankle injury. The Pistons are off to a rough start to this season but they will take advantage of facing Golden State in a tough situation for the Warriors. You also know the home team will be up about having Curry and Company in town for this one. 10* DETROIT +8 |
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10-28-22 | Hornets v. Magic OVER 224 | Top | 93-113 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play OVER 224 or 224.5 in Orlando Magic vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:10 ET - The Magic are winless on the season and will be fighting hard for their first win here. They will have to score plenty to do that because the Hornets have continued piling up big points this season. Though Orlando might scare you to be involved with because of their 0-5 record, note they have played a tough road-heavy schedule so far. Also, this team scored 120 points in their only home game so far this season. Trouble was that the Magic allowed 126 points in that game. I know Cole Anthony is now out with an injury but the point guard shot a combined 8 of 28 last two games! Keep in mind that Anthony had only 14 points in the home game in which Orlando scored 120 versus Celtics. The point is that the Magic, even though still dealing with some injury issues early this season, are fully capable of putting up plenty of points here at home - just their 2nd home game of the season! Charlotte, not including OT points of course, has seen each of their 4 games this season total at least 231 points. More of the same expected here! 10* OVER 224 or 224.5 in Orlando |
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10-27-22 | Mavs v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 129-125 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets +2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:40 ET - I know the Nets are in a back to back spot here so many are jumping on the Mavericks. I get it. But this Brooklyn team from top to bottom is very angry and fired up and I am expecting a huge effort from them tonight as result. Last night frustrations boiled over in the loss at Milwaukee and head coach Steve Nash was dealt his first ever ejection as a head coach! That is how intense the situation was for the Nets last night. Now they are back home and ready to put the frustration to work for them in a positive way here and I fully expect a positive result to follow! Keep in mind that Dallas, just like Brooklyn, is off to a slow start. The Mavericks also have just 1 win on the season. By the way the home team is a perfect 3-0 in Dallas games this season and the home team is a perfect 3-0 in the Nets last 3 games. Look for this double perfect trending to continue here with another home win but I will grab the generous points being offered here as added insurance. I do expect the outright win though. 10* BROOKLYN +2.5 |
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10-26-22 | 76ers v. Raptors | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers PICK (-110) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:40 ET - I know Toronto wants revenge for the post-season exit at the hands of the Sixers in the spring. However, I look at the Philly starters and bench and compare to the Raptors starters and bench and to me it sure seems the 76ers are the much stronger and deeper team. This is currently even a magnified issues because Philadelphia is the healthier team. For Toronto, Otto Porter has yet to suit up this season and is doubtful for this game and the Raptors were hoping the new acquisition could be a solid contributor for them. Also, Scottie Barnes is listed as questionable for this contest. Even if he does play his ankle is unlikely to be 100% and he may not be able to play up to his full potential in this one. Again, if he even sees the floor! Yes, Toronto is off a big win at Miami but the Raptors rallied in the 4th quarter for the victory as they trailed heading to final stanza. Also, the Heat shot horribly from distance in that game. The fact the Raptors outscored the Heat by six 3-pointers (18 points) from beyond the arc was absolutely the difference in that win. As for the Sixers, they just got their first win of the season against Indiana. Getting that win over the Pacers is just what the doctor ordered! Philly will finally have some confidence back after a frustrating 0-3 start to the season. Look for the Sixers to look like a different team tonight and they have the better shooters in this match-up too and I just don't see the Raptors as being able to keep up in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA PICK (-110) |
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10-25-22 | Warriors v. Suns -2.5 | Top | 105-134 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns -2.5 vs Golden State Warriors @ 10 ET - The Suns have played the tougher schedule so far with a pair of a road games and their only home game was against at tough Mavericks team. Now Phoenix is at home facing the Warriors in a huge match-up. For Golden State, this is their first road trip of the new season. I feel this is a significant edge for the Suns in this spot and we are getting a bargain price with this line at -2.5 for Phoenix at home. The Warriors were great at home last season but only 22-19 on the road. The Suns were 32-9 both home and away last season! Amazingly only ONE of their 64 victories had a margin of victory under 3 points! Even in the post-season all 7 of their wins were by at least 3 points. So I have no hesitation in laying the points here considering that 70 of the 71 wins that Phoenix had last season were by at least 3 points! Also, the Suns are very hungry entering this season after losing in the 2nd round of the post-season to the Mavericks in 7 games. 10* PHOENIX -2.5 |
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10-24-22 | Celtics v. Bulls +4.5 | Top | 102-120 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls +4.5 or +5 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:10 ET - This is a great spot for the Bulls. They are off an embarrassing home loss to the Cavaliers in which they actually were about equal in shot attempts from the field plus had more free throw attempts yet lost the game by 32 points! So what happened? The Cavaliers shot a ridiculous percentage from 3-point land and had a hot shooting night overall. After getting embarrassed like this on their home floor I am sure Chicago is going to respond here. Remember the Bulls prior game was a road loss but just by 2 points and they opened the season on the road with a solid win at Miami also. Yes the Celtics are 3-0 this season but the teams they beat are a combined 1-8 so far. So maybe Boston caught the right teams at the right time but that is not the case here. I look for an angry Bulls team to be relentless at both ends of the floor tonight. 10* CHICAGO +4.5 or +5 |
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10-23-22 | Wolves v. Thunder OVER 224.5 | Top | 116-106 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 225.5 in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:10 ET - Look for extra energy from each club here. Minnesota off first loss of the season and though that game went into OT it went over the total in regulation. OKC is playing their home opener so that adds an element of energy and excitement for an 0-2 Thunder team. These teams met already this season and that game should have gone over the total but a sub-par 4th quarter kept it just under the total. People were expecting new acquisitions for Minny were going to result in a slowdown but they have had plenty of pace in their games and are scoring very well. The Thunder also playing at a fast pace and scoring well but they can not stop anyone. That said, I think we're going to see a ton of scoring in this one as Oklahoma City again gives up a ton of points but, this time, they are in the game all the way to the end as home court is a big boost for the Thunder here. 10* OVER 225.5 in Oklahoma City |
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10-22-22 | Spurs v. 76ers OVER 223.5 | Top | 114-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 223.5 in Philadelphia 76ers vs San Antonio Spurs @ 6:10 ET - The Spurs have allowed huge points in each game this season but they are off a win last night in which they scored 137 points and no there was no overtime. They shot the ball very well and nailed threes and they will be confident now heading into Philly. Keep in mind SA had 99 shot attempts in their first game this season so they are willing to play at a fast pace. I expect Philly to want to play at a fast pace in this one. They are angry off B2B losses to start the season and they need a huge game from Embiid here as he has had a frustrating start to the season. I don't see the Spurs interior as being capable of putting up must resistance in that regard. Also, the Sixers scored just 88 points versus Bucks because they shot so poorly including from 3-point land. I fully expect Philly to unload on this Spurs team that has given up massive point totals in their first two games this season. With Philly favored by about 13 points in this one and if Spurs allow their average of 132 points per game that puts this one at 132-119 and we don't need 250 to win this pick. In other words, you get my point. Even if Philly only scores 120 against this bad Spurs defense and the spread is right we still get this one into the upper 220s. Love this over as it should be a loosely played non-conference match-up that sees Philly score tons of points but the hot-shooting Spurs hang around and score well too. 10* OVER 223.5 in Philadelphia |
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10-21-22 | Jazz v. Wolves OVER 228.5 | Top | 132-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play OVER 228.5 in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Utah Jazz @ 8:10 ET - Like the fact that both teams got to games in the 223 to 225 range on Wednesday even though there were some strange results there. The Nuggets scored only 102 points at Utah on Wednesday but it is because they made just 5 of 22 three pointers. You know the Timberwolves are going to shoot much better than that from beyond the arc in this one against that same Jazz defense. Minnesota at home should score plenty here but I also like the fact that Utah's bench players combined to score 68 points in the win over Denver! That means even if Minny gets a big lead in this game the Jazz will have scorers coming in off the bench throughout and even late in "garbage time" if we need it. What I also like about this one is the fact that the Wolves game against the Thunder was played at a very fast pace. It absolutely should have gone over the total. OKC took 99 shots from the field including 45 from 3-point land. The problem is they made just 38% of their shots from the field and a modest 31% from beyond the arc. By the way, the Timberwolves made just 10 of 38 shots from 3-point land and that is highly unlikely to be repeated here. That was tough loss for us with that over in Minny the first time. A tough tight one in which we deserved much better. Tonight on Friday we'll get that "much better" this go around! 10* OVER 228.5 in Minnesota |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 210 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 210 in Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - The Warriors are now one step away from winning it all but you also know the Celtics are going to respond off B2B losses and now being back on their home floor. That said, I see no way this game does not find its way over the total. Golden State playing with so much confidence right now but Boston will ride a wave of emotion at home and score a ton of points in this one. Celtics had averaged 106.7 points per game at home in this playoffs before the Game 4 home loss in this series. Golden State averaging 112.3 points per game in the post-season. 10* OVER 210 in Boston |
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06-13-22 | Celtics +150 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics Money Line +150 @ Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - This is perfect spot for Celtics to grab another game in this series on the road. The Celtics are 8-3 SU in road games in the post-season plus are 7-3 SU last 10 versus the Warriors including a rock solid 4-1 SU last 5 at Golden State and you have the perfect set up for an upset here. No points needed. No team has won B2B games yet in this series and this should not be a huge surprise because both teams are so good at bouncing back off losses. The Warriors are now 8-0 SU when off a loss after bouncing back in the Game 4 win. As for the Celtics, they enter this game on a 9-0 / 100% SU run when entering a game off a loss. I know the Warriors were the better team in the 4th quarter of Game 4 but overall the Celtics have been an amazing 4th quarter team of late and I expect a big response here from Boston on the road. As noted above, they have been so strong on the road overall in this post-season and, again, they have also been phenomenal when off a loss. 9-0 last 9 and I am expecting the streak to reach 10 in a row so will go with the money line here. 10* BOSTON +150 |
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06-10-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors +4 @ Boston Celtics @ 9 ET - The Warriors are 6-0 the last 6 times when off a loss. That is 6-0 SU / 100% PERFECT! That said, the fact we get an added 4 points here with underdog Golden State is simply a bonus! I do expect GS to win outright but will grab the points as added insurance. The Warriors led the first game by 12 after 3 quarters and the second game by 21 after 3 quarters and they only trailed the third game by 4 after 3 quarters. The point is that the Warriors could just as easy be up 3-0 in this series rather than down 2-1. Give credit to the Celtics for their resilience and their ability to come up strong in 4th quarters. However, I look for the Warriors - with their backs against the wall - to absolutely come up big in this one. They should improve to 7-0 SU / 100% PERFECT last 7 times when off a loss but I will grab the points here as I feel this is an excellent line value that could prove well worth it in the event Boston prevails by a very slim margin. 10* GOLDEN STATE +4 |
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06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 212 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 212 in Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - The Warriors have scored an average of 113 points per game last 8 games. The Celtics have scored an average of 116 points per game the last 8 times they have entered a game off a loss. I feel certain that Boston is going to respond on their home floor after an embarrassing effort on the road Sunday in which they scored just 88 points. However, I also feel certain that Golden State is going to continue piling up points. The result should be an easy over here and I like the fact that this total dropped a little from its opener which is serving to give us even more line value here. Each of the last two meetings between these teams in Boston have gone over the total and the games averaged 225.5 points apiece. That said, it comes as no surprise that my forecast models are reflecting this one getting to at least 220 points just like saw in Game 1 of this series which totaled 228 points. A ton of line value here. 10* OVER 212 in Boston |
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06-05-22 | Celtics +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 88-107 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics +4.5 @ Golden State Warriors Sunday @ 8 PM ET - The whole world will likely line up on Golden State here. In fact this line could drive up even higher but I am getting the early jump here with a solid 4.5 soon after Game 1 of this series finished. I know the expectation is that the Warriors bounce back but that is hard to trust. They just outscored 40-16 in the 4th quarter of a game on their home floor in which they also were the more rested team. The news gets even worse for Golden State. Steph Curry had a huge Game 1 with 34 points and nailing 7 of 14 threes while Celtics start Jayson Tatum had just 12 points on 3 for 17 shooting. Stop and think about that for a minute. Should be easy GS win given those numbers. Yet the Celtics won the game by double digits. Not only that, the two days off in between games also means that Boston can hit the reset button and comfortably relax. All the pressure here is on the Warriors and they wish they could take the floor right away on Friday to make up for the debacle. This situation is perfect for a rested and relaxed Celtics team to steal Game 2 as well but will grab the points this time just in case the Warriors find a way to steal it late. Took the money line in Game 1 but more points are available in Game 2 and given the situation that is the best value as I will gladly challenge a Golden State team questioning itself to win this game by at least 5 points. The road dogs loaded with confidence now. 10* BOSTON +4.5 |
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06-02-22 | Celtics +145 v. Warriors | Top | 120-108 | Win | 145 | 43 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics Money Line +145 @ Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - This is perfect spot for Celtics to steal one of the first two games of this series on the road. The rest versus rust factor is a key. Boston has had a little bit of rest since their hard-fought series win over Miami. I feel the amount of rest is ideal and Celtics will still have good game flow here. As for the Warriors, they have been off for about a week. That is certainly at the point of being too much rest and when the rest can turn into rust as noted above. Couple that with the fact that the Celtics are 7-2 SU in road games in the post-season plus are 5-1 SU last 6 versus the Warriors including a perfect 3-0 SU last 3 at Golden State and you have the perfect set up for an upset here. No points needed. 10* BOSTON +145 |
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05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat +123 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -100 | 39 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Heat Money Line +125 vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Celtics continue to get a lot more respect than the Heat and this has resulted in line value here. Miami has been getting a lot of shots from the field but just was not shooting well at all and that allowed Boston to take a stranglehold on the series. However, with the Heat bouncing back in Game 6 thanks to Jimmy Butler proving to be Mr Clutch as he so often is, the value is with Miami on their home floor here. The Heat are getting healthier including Butler certainly looking 100 percent again and couple that with the home court and momentum edge here and I just do not see Miami being denied in this one. Tatum is a beast for the Celtics of course and they are a very strong team just like Miami and that is why this series is going 7 games. However, just can not see the ultra-competitive Butler being denied here as he and his teammates put it all together again for a big win on their home floor. Their confidence is back and better shooting will follow and they are at home here and, keep in mind, the Heat averaged 19 more shots from the field than the Celtics in the 3 games that preceded their big Game 6 road win. 10* MIAMI +125 |
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05-27-22 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 200.5 | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play OVER 200.5 in Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat @ 8:30 ET - Back to back unders but the Heat actually have averaged 92 shots from the field the last 3 games. The only reason the last two games have stayed under is because of horrible shooting from Miami which is highly improbable to continue here. At the same time, you know Boston is likely to stay hot. Celtics are at home where they are loaded with confidence. Boston has only had one poor game offensively in their last 8 home games. In the other 7 games, the Celtics have averaged 108.4 points per game as a host. Considering that plus the Heat facing elimination and likely to finally shoot at least a halfway respectable rate in this one we have great line value with this ultra low total. 10* OVER 200.5 in Boston |
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05-26-22 | Mavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 110-120 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks +7 @ Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - Amazingly, the Mavericks have not had a standalone win in 4 months. You have to go all the way back to January 24th to find the last time that the Mavericks were off a loss, had a win, and then lost their very next game. Since that time, the Mavs are 12-0 / 100% perfect in this situation. That is a SU record. 12 straight times the Mavericks have managed to avoid the dreaded standalone win. That said, I definitely like our chances here of getting at least a cover as the Mavericks look to keep their season alive with one big upset. Once again, when off a win that was preceded by a loss, the Mavericks are 12-0 / 100% perfect SU. Give me the points here. 10* DALLAS +7 |
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05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Miami Heat +1.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Heat are off a loss and have been so strong off a defeat. The Celtics got the key Game 4 win to even this series up but now are over-valued on the road. Boston has been alternating wins and losses frequently in this post-season in the last two series and I look for that trend to continue here. The Celtics will have their hands full here with a Heat team that had won 10 straight home games prior to losing to 25 points as a host versus Boston in Game 2 of this series. Not only payback for that but Miami enters this game off a 20 point road loss in Game 4 at Boston. The Heat take back series lead with a key revenging win over the Celtics in this one. 10* MIAMI +1.5 |
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05-23-22 | Heat +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 82-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Miami Heat +6.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Heat could get Butler back for this game and I do expect that plus they are loaded with confidence after the big Game 3 win on the road. Miami does not have to win this game to get the money for us either. A loss by 6 or less points also cashes our ticket and 5 of Boston's 9 post-season wins have been by a margin of 4.8 points. All the pressure on Boston here to avoid a 3-1 series hole before heading to Miami for Game 5. As for the Heat, they already have accomplished the success of insuring they have home court edge for this series no matter what happens in Game 4. That said, they can play loose and relaxed basketball. With all the pressure on the Celtics, the Heat are going to be tough to put away in this one. Huge value with the points. 10* MIAMI +6.5 |
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05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 218 | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
NBA 10* UNDER 218 in Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - Barring another absolutely ludicrous finish like the 24 points we saw scored in the final minute and 20 seconds of last night's game between the Celtics and Heat, we should finally seen an under here. The Mavericks will dial up the defense here as they look to avoid an 0-3 hole here and the Warriors are known for struggling with their shooting on the road at times. Golden State fully capable of more solid defense here though just like they showed in the 2nd half of their Game 2 win. The result is a game that should fall well short of the total tonight unless we again see another absolutely preposterous final 81 seconds of basketball like we saw last night. 10* UNDER 218 in Dallas |
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05-21-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 207.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play UNDER 207.5 in Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat @ 8:30 ET - The first two games of this series have totaled at least 225 points yet the odds makers have hardly budged on the O/U they are posting. As I have said many times before, the odds makers are super sharp and I feel they have this match-up pegged. We're going to finally see the type of defensive-minded chess match many have been expecting with this series. Keep in mind the Celtics just knocked down 20 of 40 from three point land in Game 2 and also note that each team has combined to hit above their normal shooting percentages from the field in the first two games of this series. These numbers are not sustainable and with this series tied at 1-game apiece, we are going to see some solid defense here in a critical swing game here in Game 3. The under has cashed in 4 of last 5 Boston home games. The under has cashed in 4 of last 5 Miami road games. 10* UNDER 207.5 in Boston |
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05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks Money Line +220 @ Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - If you think this series is over already think again. Ton of value here with Dallas and we don't need any points. Yes the Mavericks got blown out in Game One of this series but that was only the 2nd time they have been blown out by Golden State in the last 7 meetings. The two defeats were blowout losses but the Mavs won each of the other 5 games and ALL were straight-up outright wins. That is why I am advising NOT to take the points here. We will not need them. Dallas, overall, is 16-3 SU the last 19 times when off a loss. These teams knows how to bounce back and that is why losing streaks have been rare. That has played a key role in why the Mavericks finished up the regular season on a 36-12 SU run last 48 games. As for post-season, the Mavs are already 4-1 when off a loss and I am looking for a big-time bounce back here. The Mavericks had 4 more shots from the field and 5 more shots from the free throw line in Wednesday's 25-point loss. We have value here as a result because I am expecting much better shooting from the Mavs in this one. 10* DALLAS +220 |
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05-19-22 | Celtics +157 v. Heat | Top | 127-102 | Win | 157 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics Money Line +157 @ Miami Heat @ 8:30 ET - The Celtics lost game one of this series and feel challenged by their coach after a horrific 2nd half at Miami. Boston is 10-1 SU the last 11 times when off a loss. Also, the Celtics are a fantastic 7-0 / 100% PERFECT SU when on the road and off a loss. No points needed here. Boston set to improve to 8-0 SU when on the road and entering that game off a defeat. Celtics get it done at solid plus money here as they are an angry bunch after being embarrassed by the Heat in the 2nd half of Tuesday's game. 10* BOSTON +157 |
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05-18-22 | Mavs +182 v. Warriors | Top | 87-112 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks +180 @ Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - Dallas has won 8 of the last 10 meetings. That is a SU 80% record in last 10 meetings and also that includes 4 of last 5 in San Francisco. That said, we have exceptional line value here with the money line in my opinion. The Mavericks already beat two division champs - Utah and Phoenix - to get here. The Warriors, on the other hand, beat a Memphis team that ended up without star player Ja Morant as the series went on plus Golden State defeated a Denver team that went just 6-10 in divisional play this season. In other words, the teams that the Warriors beat to get here were not on par with what the Mavs faced. Don't get me wrong, GS is a great team of course. I just think the hunger and resolve that Dallas has already shown in this post-season is going to carry over to Game 1 of this series. Warriors are at home and feeling good about themselves and will be guilty of overlooking the Mavs in this one. The road team makes them pay and steals game one. 10* DALLAS +180 |
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05-17-22 | Celtics +112 v. Heat | Top | 107-118 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics Money Line +114 @ Miami Heat @ 8:45 ET - My family is from the Philly area and I am about as passionate of a Philly fan as you will find and have followed the sports scene in Philadelphia like a hawk for 4 decades now! What does that have to do with this play? More than you would think! The 76ers, at times, played the series with the Heat like it was preseason. Their lack of hunger and passion and effort on the floor is absolutely sickening to me. You are paid to play a game and you can't get up for a do or die post-season series? What is wrong with teams/players like this? Well how that relates to this is that Miami is here because they just beat a Sixers team that was without Embiid in the first two games of the series and then played later in the series like a team lacking heart and fire. Now the Heat face a real team. A real team that knows how to play high-level basketball and that will not quit and that has the talent level to knock off the defending champion Bucks. Unlike Philly, Boston has killer instinct, hunger, passion, fight. I admire Boston much more for their series victory over Milwaukee in comparison with Miami beating a gutless, heartless Philly team that needs shaken up in a big way. Now look at this game. The Heat are at home and playing with rest and the Celtics are off a hard-fought series victory over the Bucks and yet Miami opened up at a pick'em line. Talk about a trap! The whole world will likely be lining up on the Heat here and, indeed, the line has already moved that way. Guess what Miami...this is not the sad-sack Sixers you are facing here...this is a real team. Celtics get the outright win. We don't need any points here. Fading the masses and fading the trap line in this one! 10* BOSTON +114 |
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05-15-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 81-109 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 3:30 ET - Boston has home court here for Game 7. Critical, right? Hardly! The home team has only gotten the money ONCE in the first SIX games of this series. These are two very evenly matched teams and I like the value of having the 5.5 points on our side here. We'll grab the points in what should be a tight battle in Game 7. There has been only one blowout win for a home team so far in this series. Also, the same team has not won B2B games in this series yet and I do not expect that to change here. I am expecting the Bucks to get the outright upset win as they have the champion pedigree. But I am also grabbing the points should this be a tight finish decided by just a bucket or two. 10* MILWAUKEE +5.5 |
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05-13-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 210.5 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play OVER 210.5 in Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics @ 7:30 ET - Finally B2B overs in this series but truly the pacing has been there for overs in all but one of the five games so far in this series. That said, and with Boston facing elimination here and the Bucks continuing to push the pace at home, I am going to take advantage of this low total. The posted total has moved down a little from its opener and I feel we have excellent line value here as a result. Keep in mind, the Celtics have averaged 117 points per game last 7 road games. The Bucks have averaged 110 points per game last 7 home games. This line is practically a pick'em and whether the Bucks get to their recent 110 range and or the Celtics get to their recent 117 range and if the odds makers are right about this game being decided by a slim margin, you can see why this one should fly over the total. Milwaukee has had at least 90 shot attempts from the field in 4 of the 5 games and they are not going to change this faster pace which has been serving them well. This is a chance for the Bucks to close this series out on their home floor. Great pace expected here. 10* OVER 210.5 in Milwaukee |
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05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | Top | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Philadelphia 76ers -2 vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - We have seen the zig zag theory working quite well in the NBA of late and I expect more of the same here. Philly just got blasted by the Heat in most recent game so watch them bounce right back here. The home team is a perfect 5-0 in this series and the host has actually won 7 straight meetings dating back to regular season action in March. More of the same expected here and another solid home win projected in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA -2 |
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05-11-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 7 ET - The Bucks fell short in Game 4 as the Celtics rallied. However, Milwaukee is 4-0 SU the last 4 times when off a loss. Whether or not the Bucks get the outright upset here, I definitely like the fact that Milwaukee is getting a handful of points and I expect this game could go down to the wire! The Bucks had won 4 of 5 SU against the Celtics prior to Monday's loss and I feel strongly they will bounce back big here. At worst it will be a loss by a bucket or two in my opinion. Boston a bit over-rated here after the huge fourth quarter rally in Game 4. I do not expect a repeat of that here but yet we get line value as a result of that game 4 finish. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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05-10-22 | 76ers +140 v. Heat | Top | 85-120 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Money Line Mauling Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers +140 @ Miami Heat @ 7:30 ET - The 76ers have swung momentum in this series and have won the only two games that Embiid has played in. I know one could argue that the home team has won every game in this series and that should continue would be their argument. However, my argument would be that I think Joel Embiid is the different maker and I am also expecting another big game from James Harden here. Simply put, just too much value with the road dog getting a money line payback price in this one. Will take the Sixers here as they stay red hot in games in which Embiid has played. 10* PHILADELPHIA +140 |
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05-09-22 | Celtics -102 v. Bucks | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Money Line Mauling Monday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics -102 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:30 ET - The Celtics rallied to put a scare into the Bucks in Game 3 but ultimately came up just a bucket short. That huge 4th quarter for Boston and yet still falling short will only increase their motivation here and they will not be denied here as they look to even this series up. Milwaukee has been managing without Middleton but this is the type of game they could really use him and he is not there. The Celtics as determined as ever and have gone 8-1 the last 9 times when off SU loss. That strong 89% trend continues here. 10* BOSTON -102 |
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05-08-22 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 207 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
NBA 2nd Rd Total of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 207 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat @ 8 ET - Game 3 of this series was a dead under. But the 76ers last 8 home games, prior to the under Friday, had featured 6 overs - a 75% over rate as a host. Look for both teams to finally put it together offensively here as I feel certain the Heat are going to bounce back after scoring just 79 points in the Game 3 loss. At the same time, the 76ers tend to be a better shooting team when at home and I expect them to roll up big points in this one as, with Embiid back, they are hell-bent on getting back into this series and tying it up at 2 games apiece. Keep in mind the 76ers have scored an average of 114 points per game last 5 home games versus Miami. 10* OVER 207 in Philadelphia |
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05-08-22 | Suns v. Mavs +115 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 115 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Money Line Mauling Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks +115 vs Phoenix Suns @ 3:30 ET - The home team trend continues here in my opinion. The home team has won all 3 of the games so far and 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams have seen the host come out victorious. Phoenix has lost 5 of last 8 road games. The Mavericks have won 16 of last 19 home games. The home edge here is simply offering great value in this one because so many bettors play the zig-zag theory and yet I don't see it in this case. Just because Mavs won Game 3 does not mean the Suns come back and win Game 4 on the road. 10* DALLAS +115 |
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05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks -117 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Money Line Mauling Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks -117 vs Boston Celtics @ 3:30 ET - The Celtics rolled the Bucks in Game 2 in Boston by a 23 point margin. However, Boston outscored Milwaukee by 51 points from 3-point land! That's right, from beyond the arc, the Celtics hit 20 threes while the Bucks hit just 3. Suffice to say that was the difference in the game and that kind of insane variance will not be happening again in Game 3 in Milwaukee. Look for the return home to get the Bucks going here. Milwaukee 6-1 last 7 times when off a loss. 10* MILWAUKEE -117 |
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05-06-22 | Heat v. 76ers +3.5 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
NBA 2nd Rd Game of the Year Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - The Sixers will still be without Joel Embiid. However, even on the road in Game 2, the only difference in the game was really the 3-point shooting of Miami. The Heat outscored Philly by 18 points from 3 point land and won the game by 16 points. The 76ers had just 8 turnovers while Miami had 14 and Philadelphia did have 6 more FG attempts in the game. Philly is going to bring a huge effort here and are going to shoot much better than the combined 14 of 64 they shot from distance in the first two games of this series in Miami. At the same time, I do not expect the Heat to make a ridiculous 14 of 29 from outside the arc like they did in Game 2. The Sixers can get back into this series with a win here and Embiid possible returning for Game 4. That said, this is Philly's season here and I expect a huge amount of fight in this dog at home! The Sixers have won 5 of last 6 home games and the Heat have lost 2 of last 3 road games. The home team has won 10 of last 13 meetings between these teams and I expect that trend to continue here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +3.5 |
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05-04-22 | 76ers +8.5 v. Heat | Top | 103-119 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Early Dominator Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 @ Miami Heat @ 7:30 ET - The 76ers off a double digit loss in Game 1 but should respond here even without Joel Embiid. Philly just getting no respect here and, with backs against the wall, will get back on track in Game 2. The Sixers had won 9 of 12 before the ugly loss in Game 1. The Heat are 1-3 ATS last 4 times when off an ATS win. The 76ers are going to battle all the way to end in this one and remember they were only down 4 with 4 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter Monday. 10* PHILADELPHIA +8.5 |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 215 | Top | 86-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Contrarian Crusher Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 215 in Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7 ET - The Bucks have had unders now in 6 straight games. In typical contrarian fashion, I will take the over in this one given that streak! I love the fact that Milwaukee held Boston to just 89 points in the Game 1 upset win. The Celtics entered that game having won 8 of 9 games and scoring an average of 122.6 points per game! Boston will bounce back and make adjustments and score well here but the Bucks are the defending champs for a reason. Milwaukee will hang around in this game and they had averaged 114 points per game last 4 games before the low-scoring Game 1 win in this series. Celtics were on an 8-4 run to the over last dozen games before that under and also in match-ups between these teams the over was 7-3 last 10 meetings before that under. Game 2 will play out much differently. 10* OVER 215 in Boston |
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05-02-22 | 76ers +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Situational Slaughter Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 @ Miami Heat @ 7:30 ET - How many times have we seen a key player out for a team and then the line jumps the other way of course but it is the wounded team that actually gets the cover? Plenty! This has been a strong regular season trend and it has continued into the post-season. That said, with Joel Embiid out for at least the first two games of this series, this line on the Heat has gotten out of hand. Keep in mind, Miami is currently dealing with some nagging injury issues as well. Too much value to pass up here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +7.5 |
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05-01-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +127 | Top | 117-116 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Money Line Mauling Sunday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies Money Line +127 vs Golden State Warriors @ 3:30 ET - The Grizzlies just are not getting any respect here and waiting until Sunday morning has paid off in terms of line value here as now we can get some extra plus money with the money line in this one. The home team has won 3 straight meetings between these teams and 5 of the last 7. The Warriors are 4-4 SU in last 8 road games. The Grizzlies are 32-12 SU in home games including post-season this year. Golden State is barely above .500 on the road this season. The public will be all over the Warriors here. They see Curry, Thompson and know the history of these guys and the playoff runs they have had. Conversely, most do not know too much about this Grizzlies team and how good they can be on defense and particularly when at home. They will know more about just how good this Memphis team is after they notch the upset in Game 1 on their home floor. All the big comebacks the Grizzlies had in the series with Minny also gives this team a ton of confidence and a never say die attitude. They win this one at home. 10* MEMPHIS +127 |
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04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +110 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Money Line Game of the Month 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +110 vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 9 ET - Look for the long-term home team trend to continue here as the host has won SU in 78% of the last 9 meetings between these teams. I know Memphis is the better team defensively overall but if you look at the road/home dichotomy that is not the case. The Timberwolves allow less points and a lower shooting percentage when they are at home compared to what the Grizzlies allow in those two categories when on the road. That said, we have some home dog value here in my opinion because Minny is known for lighting up the scoreboard when on their home floor and they should do just that here. 10* MINNESOTA +110 |
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04-28-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
NBA 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans +2.5 - It is the Pelicans turn here. No team has won B2B games yet in this see-saw series and New Orleans is a home dog and will take advantage of Booker still being out for the Suns and I look for the home team to get it done here. I know there is speculation he might return tonight but I doubt he will. Even if he does, I like the fact that the Pelicans have been the much stronger rebounding team in this series and I expect them to shoot better from long-distance after a 5 for 25 at Phoenix in Game 5. The home dog gets it done here and extends the series. 10* NEW ORLEANS +2.5 |
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04-27-22 | Bulls +12.5 v. Bucks | Top | 100-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Double Perfect Play Wednesday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls +12.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:30 ET - The road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in this series and on a 5-0 ATS run dating back to the regular season. Once this one is in the books, I am predicting that streak to reach 6 in a row. I do expect Milwaukee to close this series out with a home win tonight but look for Chicago to rally the troops, with Zach Lavine out, and battle hard all the way in this one to lose by just a single digit margin and get us the all-important ATS cover. By the way, the Bucks are on an 0-5 ATS run in home games dating back to the regular season as well. Hence, the double perfect situation here and I understand the line move but love fading line moves too and this is the perfect spot (literally) - filled with high value in my opinion. 10* CHICAGO +12.5 |
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04-26-22 | Hawks +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 94-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Earliest Cash Tuesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks +7.5 @ Miami Heat @ 7 ET - The Hawks just got embarrassed on their home floor in a 24 point loss on Sunday. This is now their season right here. I am not saying they will win this game outright but I do like the odds of at least a cover here. Since mid-February, Atlanta has gone 10-1 SU when entering a game off a non-OT loss! The only time they lost back to back was in Games 1 and 2 of that series and in that one that Game 2 loss they were down by just 3 points with 2 and 1/2 minutes to go and missed a game-tying 3 at that juncture in the game. The point is that the eventual 10 point loss was a closer finish than you think and that game was here in Miami too. Big value with the big points here given the situation and the 10-1 / 91% angle. 10* ATLANTA HAWKS +7.5 |
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04-25-22 | Raptors v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 103-88 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 vs Toronto Raptors @ 8 ET - Look for the Sixers to respond off the Game 4 loss at Toronto. Even though the 76ers are still very much in control of this series they last thing they want to do is let this series go back to Toronto for Game 6. That is for two key reasons. Not only would that then give the Raptors a chance to tie the series up on their home floor and force an "anything can happen" Game 7, it also would lead to more tired legs for Philly if they do advance. Philadelphia wants this series to end right here right now and to let guys like Joel Embiid get some rest for the next round. Similar to the huge energy and motivation we saw from the Sixers in the opening game of the series, I am expecting a similar effort here. Philadelphia in a big home rout is my expectation here. The 76ers are on a 5-0 run in home games and the average margin of victory was 18 points in those 5 games. More of the same expected here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -7.5 |
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04-24-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets +170 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 170 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Money Line Dominator Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets +170 vs Golden State Warriors @ 3:30 ET - Sweeps are not easy to come by. There are 8 series going and only 2 of them still have a shot at being a sweep and this is one of them. I do not see an angry Denver team being denied here on their home floor. They have outrebounded the Warriors heavily in each of the last two games plus shot much better from the free throw line. Golden State has simply shot lights out from the field, including downtown, so far in this series but that can not go on forever. This is the game the Nuggets bring their absolute best game of this series as they will be relentless in refusing to let GS take this series on their home court. 10* DENVER +170 |
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04-23-22 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 212.5 | Top | 102-110 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 212.5 in Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 2 PM ET - The Raptors will do anything to extend this series as they are down 3-0 and do not want to get eliminated on their home floor. To extend their series they are likely going to have to extend this game. What I mean by that is even if they are down 7 to 10 points late they will be fouling plenty and looking to send Philly to the line and climb back into the game. I love the fact that after B2B unders, even if an game that went to OT in Game 3, most will be looking under here. Keep in mind, Game 1 of this series flew over the total. I am expecting much better shooting like we saw in the first game and I look for Toronto to put up a valiant effort here. However, as has been a problem all series long, the Raptors will struggle to stop all the weapons the Sixers have. I am not confident of who will win this game but I am confident of plenty of points being scored! 10* OVER 212.5 in Toronto |
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04-22-22 | Heat v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 110-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
NBA Payback Special Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks +1.5 vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - After 3 straight games for us all slipping away in the 4th quarter in the NBA after cashing 8 in a row in NBA - most all of them easy no doubt winners without drama - I have no doubt we are getting back on track starting today. One thing is for sure, if a break is involved it most certainly should go our way here! The home team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams and the Heat won each of the first two games of this series at home. The home team dominance in this series continues here. The Hawks have won 28 of 42 home games this season and the Heat are 21-16 SU last 37 road games. You can see why, given those numbers, we have some line value here with the desperate and hungrier team available as a home underdog. 10* ATLANTA +1.5 |
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04-21-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +2 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Month Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +2 vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:30 ET - The Wolves had turnover problems in the two games at Memphis but look for them to clean that up now that the series has shifted home to Minneapolis for them. As disappointing as the 124-96 annihilation was for the T-wolves in Game 2, they are still feeling very good about their situation in this series as they earned the all-important split at Memphis. Ja Morant suffered a quad injury in Game 2 and though it is not serious at all could it get sore on him as Game 3 marches on into the later stages and effect him a little bit? Certainly is not impossible but either way I love the Wolves here in a key game for them to respond after a 28-point drubbing. Keep in mind, before that big win, Memphis had lost 4 of 5 games and Minnesota had won 5 of 7 games before the blowout defeat. Hungry home team will get it done here in my opinion as they are buoyed by the confidence they gained by getting the big Game 1 win at Memphis and they draw on that here to take a 2-1 lead in this series. We'll grab the bucket being offered in case this one ends up decided by the slimmest of margins but I do sense a big home team win here! 10* MINNESOTA +2 |
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04-20-22 | Nets +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 107-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Earliest Cash Wednesday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets +3.5 @ Boston Celtics @ 7 ET - The Nets fell just short on a last second buzzer beater in Game 1. I actually expect a bounce back win here for Brooklyn after falling just short but I am still going to grab the points here just in case the visitors again fall just short. We can get 3.5 points with the road dog here and I will take it as the Nets showed me a lot in Game 1 and the fact they fell short on a last second shot only serves to give us even more line value here in Game 2. You know Brooklyn is going to be extremely hungry here in Game 2. The Nets have great shot at outright win which also means superb extra value with getting more than a 3-pointer's worth as the dog in this one again in Game 2. I'll take it as the impact of Boston not having Robert Williams available showed up already as they Celtics barely survived Game 1 and I feel they will not be so fortunate here. 10* BROOKLYN +3.5 |
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04-19-22 | Hawks +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
NBA TNT Annihilation Tuesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks +7.5 @ Miami Heat @ 7:30 ET - The Hawks and Heat nearly the exact same number of 3-point attempts in Game 1 of this series. The difference in Sunday's game? Miami made 8 more of theirs than Atlanta did. The Heat won the game by exactly a 24 point margin. You see my point? Even with Trae Young having the horrible game he did that was the difference in the final margin of the game was just 3-pointers. Of course Miami's Duncan Robinson is not going 8 of 9 again from downtown just like Young is not going 0 for 7 from beyond the arc. In fact, now that I mentioned that, note that this is your 24 point margin right there! The fact is Atlanta got to the line for 50% more free throw attempts in the game. Essentially the Heat won the game from the outside not the inside. Possible impact to that inside game is the fact that Bam Adebayo is dealing with a quad injury entering this one. I know the Hawks struggled on the road in the regular season but they were 5-2 SU last 7 road games that were NOT the second game of a B2B before that loss at Miami Sunday. They get back on track here as Young and Company are out for payback. The visitors may fall short of the outright upset but they will do enough for the all-important cover here. 10* ATLANTA +7.5 |
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04-18-22 | Raptors v. 76ers -7 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
NBA TNT Annihilation Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -7 vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:30 ET - The Raptors lost by 20 in the first game and Tyrese Maxey had a ridiculous game for the Sixers scoring 38 points. So now everyone is saying Toronto will bounce back because no way Maxey plays like that again. This might be true about Maxey but it is not necessarily true about the Raptors bouncing back. The 76ers have a pair of stars you might have heard about before...guys by the names of Joel Embiid and James Harden. Those two guys combined for 11 of 32 shooting in the game Saturday and yet Philly still won the game by 20 points! Now you understand why Toronto is absolutely in trouble here. They may get a boost when the series shifts to north of the border and the Sixers Matisse Thybulle can not travel with the team due to his covid status. However, until then Raptors still in trouble and this is particularly true with injuries piling up for them. Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr. and Thaddeus Young all listed as doubtful for this game! 76ers roll again in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA -7 |
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04-17-22 | Bulls +11 v. Bucks | Top | 86-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
NBA TNT Annihilation Sunday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls +11 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 6:30 ET - With the Bulls late season fade, we are getting extra line value here. Chicago is fully capable of turning things up a notch now that the post-season has arrived. Of course, the same can be said for the Bucks and that would absolutely be a true statement. However, lets not forget that Milwaukee is the defending NBA champion. Everyone is gunning for them in this post-season and this is particularly true of a nearby rival (Chicago only about 90 miles away). Additionally, the hunger factor is a question. Sure the Bucks want to win but will they be as hungry as other teams in this post-season? Honestly I doubt that. I am not saying the Bucks will not win this series nor am I saying that will not win Game 1. However, I am quite confident this Game 1 match-up will be decided by only a single digit margin. That said, big value with the big points here! Milwaukee won all 4 regular season meetings but the Bulls had at least 10 more field goal attempts in each of the last two defeats even though they were blowout losses. The problem was that the Bucks shot lights out. We are getting line value because of this here. The Grayson Allen with Alex Caruso further adds spice to this match-up and you are going to see a hungry underdog giving its strongest effort in a long time in this one and I just do not see them getting blown out here and an outright upset in Game 1 would not surprise me but a loss by a range of 5 to 9 points is the more likely result and that gets us the cash here! 10* CHICAGO +11 |
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04-16-22 | Raptors v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 111-131 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
NBA ESPN Blowout Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 vs Toronto Raptors @ 6 ET - The 76ers are undervalued here because of past playoff disappointments. In my opinion the Sixers will keep things up a notch now that the post-season is here and they have a guy by the name of James Harden to help lift them rather than a guy named Ben Simmons that was weighing them down. I know that the Raptors won the regular season series between these teams but this is playoff time and the Wells Fargo Center will be rocking for this one. Each of the last 7 meetings between these teams was decided by at least 5 points and I expect that that trend to continue here. Philly get gets it done on their home floor and opens the series with a big win and cover as Raptors drop to 1-3 SU/ATS last 4 road games (only win was against bad Magic team at Orlando). The hosts roll here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -4.5 |
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04-16-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies OVER 236 | Top | 130-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Playoff Perfection Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 236 in Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 3:30 ET - Two teams that like to play fast and I am expecting plenty of points in the opener of this series as a result. The over is 5-1 last 6 Timberwolves games. The over is 4-1 last 5 Grizzlies games. In Minnesota road games this season the over went 30-11. Memphis has seen the over go 7-2 in last 9 home games. The tempo and situation is perfect. The Grizzlies have fresh legs here from being off since Sunday and the Timberwolves allowed only 104 points to the Clippers in the Wolves play-in game Tuesday but allowed 128 points per game in their final 7 games of the regular season. 10* OVER 236 in Memphis |
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04-15-22 | Hawks -130 v. Cavs | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Money Line Rout Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks -130 @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:35 ET - Just do not want to get burned if the Hawks win this game by only a point or two so, in this case, happy to lay a little bit of an extra price to have the money line in this match-up. The Hawks are the much hotter team with wins in 13 of last 18 games. Conversely, not only did the Cavaliers lose at Brooklyn, they were getting dominated for long stretches in that game. Also, over the last four weeks entering the post-season, Cleveland had a standalone loss only one time but had a pair of 3-game losing streaks and a pair of 2-game losing streaks and here is the next 2-gamer which also will mark the end of their season. Hawks loaded with confidence while Cavs have lost 9 of 12 games and, going further back, 12 of 18 games. 10* ATLANTA -130 |
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04-13-22 | Hornets v. Hawks -5 | Top | 103-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Earliest Dominator Wednesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks -5 vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7 ET - The home team went 52-30 SU in Hawks games this season. Atlanta was 27-14 at home this season. Of all the teams that either made the post-season or play-in tournament, the Hawks are the team with the worst road record. That said, home court carried them. It is the reason they are here today and it is the reason they will advance to play Cleveland. Note that Charlotte lost 2 of its last 3 road games this season and the two defeats were each by at least 29 points. The Hawks have won 19 of last 22 home games and only 2 of those 19 wins were by less than a 6 point margin. You can see why I am backing the hosts for the win and cover in this one! 10* ATLANTA -5 |
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04-12-22 | Cavs +8.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Earliest Dominator Tuesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7 ET - The Cavaliers are expected to again be without Allen but that is keeping this line higher than it should be. Mobley has returned from a recent 5-game absence and is coming off a double-double performance. Look for Mobley to continue to fill the shoes of Allen and look for he and Love to carry the load in this match-up. The Cavs might fall short on the scoreboard but only by a bucket or two in my opinion. In the 118-107 loss at Brooklyn last week, the Cavaliers actually led that game by 5 heading to the 4th quarter after trailing by 15 after 1 quarter of play. Now it is payback time when it matters most after the Cavs were done in by a poor 4th quarter last week against the Nets. 10* CLEVELAND +8.5 |
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04-10-22 | Pistons +12.5 v. 76ers | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
NBA PA Dominator Sunday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons +12.5 @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - We had a tough loss with Philly yesterday when they dribbled out the shot clock late for a 24 second violation intentionally because they led the game by 16 points at the time and then the Pacers subsequently jacked up a 3 and hit it with just few seconds left on clock. Indiana then only lost by 13 and Philly was a 13.5 or 14 point favorite when we released that selection. Tough beat but now the situation Sunday is much different and favors the big dog strongly in my opinion. The Sixers need to stay healthy going into post-season. Yes their big guns are likely to see plenty of floor time here but not into the latter portion of the game if 76ers have a big lead. Also, the Pistons are off B2B ugly losses but had been one of the best ATS teams around for many weeks before those two big defeats. Dating back to March 1st, Pistons were on a 13-3 ATS run before the losses to Mavericks and Bucks. The Sixers know Boston is likely to also win Sunday and that means Philly is likely locked into the #4 seed and facing Toronto in first round. That said, giving too much effort here and ending up getting somebody hurt would be the worst thing the 76ers could do heading into the playoffs. Grab all the points you can and look for the Pistons to hang around throughout this contest! 10* DETROIT +12.5 |
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04-09-22 | Pacers v. 76ers -13.5 | Top | 120-133 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Earliest Dominator Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -13.5 vs Indiana Pacers @ 1:10 ET - Normally I do not lay big points but this is a rare exception. I love this spot for the Sixers. I successfully played against the 76ers with the Raptors on Thursday. But that situation was different as Philly was on the road and Toronto wanted that game just as bad as they did. Now the Sixers are back home where they won their most recent game by 30 points over a Charlotte team that is certainly better than this short-handed Pacers team. Indiana has been dealing with a myriad of injuries and they have lost 8 straight games! They are simply playing out the string on a disappointing season and here they run into a motivated Philly team that had won 3 straight before the loss at Toronto. The Pacers last 7 losses by an average margin of 15 points and I expect this one to be by 20+ as an angry 76ers team at home will show no mercy here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -13.5 |
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04-08-22 | Knicks v. Wizards OVER 222.5 | Top | 114-92 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Earliest Dominator Friday 10* Top Play OVER 222.5 in Washington Wizards vs New York Knicks @ 7:10 ET - The Wizards home finale and this is a team that has played with a lot of energy at home for quite some time now. It is still a bad team defensively but, without a doubt, Washington can put up big points! The O/U is 8-1 in the 9 home games the Wiz have had since March 1st. The Knicks are more of a defensive-minded slow-paced team but lets take this game for what it is. This is clearly a late-season match-up between two teams just playing out the string on the season and the Knicks will simply run right along with the Wizards. I simply do not expect a lot of defense to be played here. The Knicks have averaged 113 points the last 3 times they were off a game in which they were held under 105 and they just were held to 98 by Brooklyn - a playoff team. Last game against a non-playoff team, New York exploded for 118 points. Couple that with the fact Wizards have been scoring like crazy at home and you can see where I am going with this one. 10* OVER 222.5 in Washington |
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04-07-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +1.5 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Early Dominator Thursday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors +1.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:30 ET - Long-time followers know I love fading line moves and this one has moved a full 5 points as yesterday it opened up with the Raptors at -3.5 and now the 76ers are at -1.5 this morning. This game has importance for both teams in the playoff picture so lets dive into some other factors I like a lot here. The 76ers have won 3 straight games but are on a 1-7-1 ATS run against the closing number last 9 road games. The Raptors are off a win and are fantastic 12-3 SU last 15 games. Toronto is 5-1 SU L6 home games. The Raptors have covered 4 of last 5 games as a host to the Sixers. For all the hype Philly has had because of the big move for Harden, this is a team that has covered only 5 of its last 18 games. I know the spread here is very small but even SU Philadelphia was on a 7-7 SU run before this little 3-game winning streak they are currently on. These teams could meet in the playoffs and I look for the Raptors to make a statement about that on their home floor tonight. 10* TORONTO +1.5 |
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04-06-22 | Mavs v. Pistons +8.5 | Top | 131-113 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Earliest Cash Wednesday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons +8.5 vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:10 ET - The Mavericks need to win for playoff reasons. But just like we used the Wizards over the Timberwolves last night for another easy outright underdog win, we roll with the Pistons here. It is practically the same situation except even better because Detroit is at home for this one. But, just like Washington, the Pistons currently are playing some of their best basketball of the season because they are fully relaxed and any pressure to make the playoffs is long gone for them. Detroit enters this game having won 3 in a row SU and also 5 in a row ATS and, in fact, the Pistons are on an incredible 17-3 ATS run last 20 games. So you have a Mavs team that is certainly high-quality but on the road and playing with all the pressure to try and move up to the #3 seed or at least make sure they hang onto the #4 seed and Dallas has B2B home games coming up to close the season. If there was a spot for the Mavericks to get tripped up late this season, this is it. The Pistons confidence is very high right now with 3 straight wins, 2 on the road, and they also have home wins over Sixers and Hawks recently so it is not like these victories were only over chumps. The hosts will not necessarily win this game outright but I absolutely expect them to be in it all the way to the final buzzer and that means they lose this by a half dozen points or less if they even do fall short! 10* DETROIT +8.5 |
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04-05-22 | Wizards +12.5 v. Wolves | Top | 132-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Dominator Game of the Week Tuesday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards +12.5 @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:10 ET - The Wizards just got their doors blown off at Boston Sunday. However, these Wolves are not those Celtics! It is the perfect time to back a Washington team that entered Sunday having won 4 of 5 both SU and ATS. By the way, the Wizards also have won 3 in a row over Minnesota. All the pressure here is on the Timberwolves. With the Wiz eliminated from the post-season they have been playing without pressure and really were playing well before running into a Boston team that was determined to put on a killing display in their final regular season home game. The Wolves are coming off a 4-game road trip and have 2 more home games after this one to close out the regular season. All these factors make this the perfect spot to fade them. Yes I see Minny finding a way to win this game but I absolutely see this one being decided by single digits. That said, I also love the fact that the line has gone from 10.5 to 12.5 as of early Tuesday morning. Grab the extra value! 10* WASHINGTON +12.5 |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina +175 v. Kansas | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
NCAA Money Line Champ. Monday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels Money Line +175 vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 9:20 ET - Why the money line here? For one thing 4 points is not much. If I can only get a win ATS with a game landing on 1 or 2 or 3 why not give the risk for the extra payout! Particularly in this case because the line was in the 4.5 to 5 range yet has dropped to mostly a solid painted 4. At the same time though, the money line has actually crept a little higher. This is a heavily pubic wagered game but public bettors get nervous about laying points so many on Kansas roll in and load up on the money line. The result is even more value for sharps if you like the underdog and certainly I do here and we are able to get into the +175 range on this one which is huge. Keep in mind, Kansas faced a Villanova team without its 2nd leading scorer. After the huge 2nd half against Miami and then blowing out the Wildcats, the public is in love with the Jayhawks. I love being anti-public and I am happy to take a team that has won 11 of 12 games on a neutral floor and to be getting a +175 payback. Last year I won with Baylor +175 over Gonzaga in this spot. The world was on the Bulldogs there. Look for same thing this year and the underdog wins outright! 10* NORTH CAROLINA +175 |
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04-03-22 | Nuggets -2 v. Lakers | Top | 129-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Dominator Game of the Week Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets -2 @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:40 ET - The Lakers are still a public team when it comes to betting and they also are a team desperate for wins right now to keep playoff hopes alive. Also, the Lakers are at home here and have revenge against a Nuggets team that blasted them by 37 points in first meeting this season. However, in spite of all that both James and Davis are banged up right now and the fact is the confidence of LA is shaken as their hopes of earning a play-in spot for the post-season are fading. The Nuggets fully capable of blasting this Lakers team and we get line value because Denver is on the road! That is keeping this line low and yet Denver actually has won 9 of last 10 road games! Each of last 7 road wins by 4 or more points and I expect this one will fall into that category as well! The Lakers have lost 27 of 37 games. Incredible value here in fading LA! Adding to the value is the fact the Nuggets are off a tight, high-scoring home loss to Minnesota Friday. 10* DENVER -2 |
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04-02-22 | Villanova +4.5 v. Kansas | Top | 65-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
NCAA Game of the Month Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats +4.5 vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 6:09 ET - It is no surprise that the masses are lining up on Kansas here. The Jayhawks coming off that colossal 2nd half performance against Miami and they are the highest ranked team left in the tournament. Also, Villanova is without 2nd leading scorer Justin Moore after he got hurt at the end of the Michigan game. Well, as long-time followers know, I love being a contrarian and I am on the Wildcats here and with good reason. One of the keys is Caleb Daniels is the guy taking Moore's place in the lineup. He is from Louisiana. This game is at the Superdome in New Orleans. Daniels is back home again. In fact his college career started at Tulane. He is a redshirt senior and 22 years old. He has a lot of experience and has been the 6th man for Nova this season but will embrace his new starting role and, though his shooting stats were not good, he did score 12 of Villanova's 50 points in the win over Houston in the Elite 8 round to help the Cats to get here! Also, the Wildcats are known for a certain style and pedigree in College Basketball just like Kansas is. Well, through the years even though the players change it is still noteworthy how these two powerhouses have fared when matched up against each other because their style of play is often similar year to year. Well, the Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in last 8 meetings with Kansas and the Jayhawks have won only 3 of those 8 meetings SU. Look for Collin Gillespie and Daniels to have huge games and look for Kansas to struggle just to win this game let alone cover the spread in this one! 10* VILLANOVA +4.5 |
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04-02-22 | Hornets v. 76ers -5 | Top | 114-144 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Earliest Dominator Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -5 vs Charlotte Hornets @ 12:30 ET - The 76ers have lost 3 straight and the Hornets have been playing well so is it any surprise that a line that opened up as high as an 8 is down to a 5? Not really, no! But, in typical contrarian fashion I am going against the line move and grabbing the extra value here! The Sixers are very hungry and at home and they also have revenge here! After a long winning streak against Charlotte, Philadelphia got beat in mid-January by the Hornets in a rare double-digit home loss. Philly is out for revenge here and remember they were on a 30-11 run since Christmas before this current 3-game losing streak. Time for the 76ers to get back on track here and they will not be at home again until they wrap up the season here in Philly next weekend. So this game is ultra important for them and they catch the Hornets off a road win at New York. The set up is ideal for the hungry home team to do what the odds makers said they would do and yet what the betting markets are doubting here. Look for the Sixers to roll big at home. 10* PHILADELPHIA -5 |
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04-01-22 | Mavs v. Wizards +8.5 | Top | 103-135 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Earliest Dominator Friday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards +8.5 vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:10 ET - Interesting late-season match-up here because one has to wonder...does Dallas even know what it wants here? In actuality, the West is a jumbled mess from spots 3 through 6 in the playoff picture. So yes Dallas will want to win but it is not even as critical as you think just yet because there is so much uncertainty who will finish in the 5 and 6 spots and then of course that impacts the match-ups for the 3 and 4 spots. Conversely, the Wizards are eliminated from the playoff picture and playing loose, relaxed basketball as a result. That makes for a dangerous underdog the way I see it and note that Washington is 20-19 SU at home this season and in terms of current trending, the Wizards have covered 5 of last 7 games at home. In terms of all games, home and away, Washington is on a 3-1 SU/ATS run. Look for the Wizards to hang around in this game on their home floor. 10* WASHINGTON +8.5 |
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04-01-22 | Fresno State v. Coastal Carolina +3 | Top | 85-74 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
CBB Situational Slaughter Friday 10* Top Play Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +3 vs Fresno State Bulldogs @ 6 ET - This game was supposed to be played Thursday but ended up being pushed back to Friday when the Bulldogs had charter flight issues trying to leave from home. Anything that breaks the routine or normalcy for a team is not a good thing. Certainly they have had time to adjust but the fact that Fresno State flew across country later than expected and allowed the Chanticleers to comfortably rest at home and have more preparation time is unlikely to help the visitors. I also like the fact that the Bulldogs are just a .500 team SU on the road this season and Coastal Carolina is a solid 13-6 SU at home. Considering that plus the fact the Chanticleers are getting 3 points here and score very well at home while the Bulldogs tend to struggle scoring away from home, I like the home dog a lot in this one! 10* COASTAL CAROLINA +3 |
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03-31-22 | 76ers -9.5 v. Pistons | Top | 94-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Earliest Dominator Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -9.5 @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:10 ET - Long-time followers know I love fading line moves and this one was as high as an 11 but has dropped to a 9.5 and the 76ers offer strong value here off B2B losses. Philly has lost B2B games for just the 2nd time since mid-December. The only other time it happened since then the Sixers went into Chicago and won by double digits! The Bulls are 2nd place in the Central Division behind only the defending champion Bucks! As for the Pistons, no team in the entire league has fewer wins than the paltry 20 victories that Detroit has on the season. The Pistons have been more competitive of late but they are hosting the Sixers at the wrong time. Philly will show no mercy given the situation and that means when they are up by 20+ points as this game goes on they will still keep their foot on the gas. I see no way they do not win this game by at least 10 points. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA -9.5 |
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03-31-22 | Xavier +175 v. Texas A&M | Top | 73-72 | Win | 175 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
CBB Money Line Game of the Week Thursday 10* Top Play Xavier Musketeers +175 vs Texas A & M @ 7 ET - I am going with the high value play here. I fully understand the line on Aggies here as the odds makers must set the lines with an eye toward public perception as well. However, I personally do not look at this game and say that 2 out of every 3 meetings Texas A & M will win and yes I know the Musketeers are without Paul Scruggs. The fact is the -200 money line on the Aggies here is just too high. Xavier faced a tougher strength of schedule on the season and if you like the Musketeers here, the high value way to play it is with the money line. Each of Xavier's last 6 losses were by 7 or more points. If they don't win this game they are unlikely to cover. As for the Aggies, each of their last 6 wins by 5 or more points. Everyone loves Texas A & M here it seems and I am a contrarian and, in this particular case, you can also see there is justification for taking a shot with the big dog money line here rather than playing this ATS. What a way to wrap March Madness - at least in terms of NIT action - but with a resounding upset to close this tourney! The tougher regular season schedule pays off for battle-tested Musketeers here. 10* XAVIER +175 |
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03-30-22 | Nuggets v. Pacers OVER 233 | Top | 125-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Earliest Dominator Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 233 in Indiana Pacers vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:10 ET - Nuggets averaged 121 points per game last 4 games. The Pacers allowing 132 points per game last 3 games. Indiana scoring an average of 119 points last 6 home games. Could easily see this one getting into the 240s given the above. Pacers have been slumping and are officially eliminated from post-season contention but that means they can play loose and relaxed here at home. Look for very little resistance on the defensive end from an Indiana team that has clearly been struggling in that regard of late. However, the Pacers certainly should be able to put up a lot of points here and the Nuggets are off B2B unders but this was preceded by 5 straight overs. Given all of the above, that strong over trending likely to quickly resume here. 10* OVER 233 in Indiana |
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03-29-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -115 | Top | 118-116 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Money Line Game of the Year Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers Money Line -115 vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:10 ET - With this line opening up at -2.5 and dropping now to as low as -1 on the 76ers as of Tuesday morning, we are seeing money lines as low as -115. I like the value here with taking Philly on their home floor just to win the game. Yes, I know both teams off losses so Bucks will be hungry here too. However, Philadelphia is 12-1 SU last 13 times when off a loss! Conversely, Milwaukee has already had 9 losing streaks of at least 2 games this season. When the Bucks lose one, they certainly are not automatic to bounce right back! That said, great value here with a home team that should bounce back and get right back into the win column. 10* PHILADELPHIA -115 |
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03-29-22 | St Bonaventure v. Xavier +2 | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
CBB NIT Dominator Tuesday 10* Top Play Xavier Musketeers +2 vs St Bonaventure Bonnies @ 7 ET - The odds makers well aware that Musketeers 2nd leading scorer Paul Scruggs if out for season with torn ACL suffered in the win over Florida in this tournament. However, they still opened up the line on this one with Xavier as the small favorite. Sure enough, the line flipped and St Bonaventure is now the favorite. Historically I love fading line moves like this and there is certainly justification for fading this one. The Musketeers faced the tougher schedule this season. Also, their only loss last 5 games was in OT. Not including OT points, Xavier has scored an average of 77 points last 5 games. The Bonnies, on the other hand, have scored less than 57 points in 4 of last 7 games. Even without Scruggs, the Musketeers are the more talented and skilled team. The odds makers know that and so do we and, given the above scoring stats, don't be surprised if St Bonaventure can not keep up as this game goes on and the underdog pulls away in the latter stages for the outright win. Grab the point or two for added insurance but you should not need it. 10* XAVIER +2 |
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03-28-22 | Coastal Carolina v. South Alabama OVER 137.5 | Top | 69-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
CBB Earliest Cash Monday 10* Top Play OVER 137.5 in South Alabama Jaguars vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 8 ET - This is a rare set up in a semi-final game of a non-conference post-season match-up. I say that because these two teams are each from the Sun Belt Conference but managed to win out so far in this tourney and now meet with a chance to go to The Basketball Classic Championship Game. No team ever wants their season to end but this is particularly true when that game comes against a foe from the same conference. That said, no matter who is up late in this game there is likely to be late fouling and a huge effort for desperation points if needed to keep the season going. This is particularly true because each team knows the other is certainly not exceptional at the free throw line. Putting the opponent on the line late will likely allow the trailing team to get back in the game. With all of that said, I like the over quite a lot in this one in what should be a back and forth power struggle. Keep in mind these teams have met 5 times since January of last year so this will be their 6th game in 15 months. None of those games have totaled less than 136 points. The posted total on this one is currently 137.5 which means we are likely "right there" for the win in this one late given the recent history between these teams. I just don't see this one falling short of the 140s given all of the above and, in fact, the last 5 meetings have totaled an average of 141 points. Jags averaging 75 points last 3 games. CC averaging 72 points last 8 games. 75-72 S Ala win would put this right at the current number of -3 on this game and also would put this game about 10 points over the posted total. I am expecting this game to get to at least upper 140s. 10* OVER 137.5 in South Alabama |
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03-28-22 | Nuggets v. Hornets +3 | Top | 113-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Contrarian Crusher Monday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets +3 vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:10 ET - This is a contrarian play because most will be looking the way of the road team in this one because of the scheduling situation but I am grabbing the home dog! The Hornets are off a big win at Brooklyn yesterday and that was an upset win on the road which also followed an upset win at home versus Utah Friday. Will Charlotte run out of gas here? Absolutely not! The fact they are at home and in a battle for playoff position and are playing so well means they will not come up short here! The Hornets are red hot with wins in 7 of last 8 games. The Nuggets are off a win Saturday but it was a non-covering win versus a bad Thunder team. Denver's ATS slide has now reached 3-8 last 11 games. Also, prior to the SU win over OKC, the Nuggets had lost 5 of 8 SU. Based on all of the above, you can see why I am grabbing the red hot home dog that is playing with a lot of confidence right now. 10* CHARLOTTE +3 |
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03-27-22 | 76ers +4 v. Suns | Top | 104-114 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers +4 @ Phoenix Suns @ 6:10 ET - The Suns are a great team of course but missing a couple solid contributors here with Cameron Johnson and JaVale McGee both expected to miss this game. Against a lesser team that would be no big deal but the Sixers are going to give Phoenix all they can handle here. Keep in mind, Philadelphia wants to prove that, with James Harden now on board too, they belong with the elite of the NBA. Phoenix, on the other hand, has certainly proven in recent seasons that they are among the elite of the NBA. That said, I also expect the 76ers to be the hungrier team in this one. They will want it a little more and I feel we have excellent line value with Philly as an underdog. The Suns have dominated this series in recent seasons and that includes winning at Philly early last month. Payback time here as Sixers hungry to end the dominance of Phoenix in this series by coming up big today. Suns off big win at Denver and have big game at Golden State on deck. Will they be totally focused on this non-conference match-up? Perhaps not and this is a Sixers team that won 12 of 16 games and going for 4 in a row here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +4 |
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03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas -5.5 | Top | 50-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
NCAA Game of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 vs Miami-Florida Hurricanes @ 2:20 ET - The Jayhawks were outshot by the Friars - in terms of FG attempts - in their Sweet 16 win on Friday. However, Kansas did win the rebounding battle and they had a huge edge in terms of getting to the free throw line. Had they not shot so poorly from three point land, the Jayhawks would have easily covered the game and won by double digits. The key here is that the same can not be said of the Hurricanes. Miami got a favorable match-up Friday in terms of facing an Iowa State team that, in the opinion of most, had over-achieved to even get to that stage. That said, the Hurricanes getting outshot 68 to 56 in terms of FG attempts plus having only 7 offensive boards comparted to allowing 16 to the Cyclones combines for some concern here as they now face one of the best teams in the nation. I feel strongly that the Hurricanes have reached the end of the line in their season and feel we are getting excellent line value. This spread is being held lower than it should be because of Friday's results. The Jayhawks make it 9 wins in a row and this one comes by double digits in my opinion. Keep in mind their last 6 wins in the 8-game winning streak have come by an average margin of 14 points. The Hurricanes get beaten on the boards and the Jayhawks also again get to the free throw line much more than their opponent. 10* KANSAS -5.5 |
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03-26-22 | Kings v. Magic OVER 221 | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Contrarian Crusher Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 221 in Orlando Magic vs Sacramento Kings @ 7:10 ET - Total dropped from mid-220s range to closer to 220 range and I love fading the line move here. Both teams have fresh legs here as they were off each of the last two days entering this one. Also, both teams are off unders so I look for the offensive production to take over in this non-conference match. The Kings, prior to the under, were on a 5-3 run to the over including each of last 2 road games. The Magic are off 3 straight unders including 2 in a row at home but this is helping to give us line value. Orlando, before those B2B unders in home games, allowed an average of 120 points per game the preceding 9 home games! Think Sacramento loses this game? The Kings have allowed 124 points last 11 losses. Think Orlando loses this game? The Magic have allowed 124 points last 9 losses! Given those facts you can see why I like the over in this match-up! 10* OVER 221 in Orlando |
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03-26-22 | Houston v. Villanova +132 | Top | 44-50 | Win | 132 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
NCAA Money Line Game of the Year Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats +132 vs Houston Cougars @ 6:09 ET - This is the game where the losses of starters Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark finally catch up with the Cougars. I love fading public perception and, in this case, because the game is in San Antonio, Texas the consensus is that Houston has a huge home court edge. Villanova, through the years, has a history of success in games played in Texas. This is no big deal at all for this solid Wildcats team. Collin Gillespie is the key for Nova and his knee has been pronounced fine coming into this game after he took a hard fall in Sweet 16 action. I fully respect the Cougars but Villanova faced the tougher schedule this season and Houston finally runs out of bullets here! The Wildcats have lost only one game since early February. This is a 13-1 SU stretch for Nova. We will not need the points here. I am grabbing the money line for the big plus money value. The Cougars have gotten hot at the right time but lets not forget that they lost 2 of 4 road games to wrap regular season and one of the 2 wins was in double-OT! No this is not a true road game but it also is not being played at home in Houston either and the Wildcats have tremendous moxie and, just like 2016 and 2018, it is time for Final Four for this Nova team. 10* VILLANOVA +132 |
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03-25-22 | Providence v. Kansas -6.5 | Top | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
NCAA Sweet 16 Game of the Year Friday 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks -7 vs Providence Friars @ 7:29 ET - Kansas just beat Creighton by 7 points to reach this game. The Bluejays are the same Big East team that knocked Providence out of the Big East tourney. Creighton beat the Friars by 27 points in that laugher. That does not mean this win will be so easy for the Jayhawks but I definitely do not see them being denied and I do expect a double digit win for Kansas. The Jayhawks have gotten hot at the right time and when this team is firing on all cylinders in terms of point production and offensive efficiency, look out! Kansas is on an 11-2 SU run and had one low-scoring win during this stretch but averaged scoring 79 points per game in the other 10 victories. Providence is 3-2 SU last 5 games and, prior to big win over Richmond, scored an average of 63 points over 3 prior games. The Friars averaged 66.5 points on the road this season while Kansas averaged 76.7 points on the road this season. Simply put, Providence just will not be able to keep up in this one and the Jayhawks eventually pull away for a win by a double digit margin. Lay it! 10* KANSAS -7 |
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03-24-22 | Cavs +5 v. Raptors | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Contrarian Crusher Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers +5.5 @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:40 ET - Toronto opened up at a -3 and has jumped up to as high as a -5.5 already. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move. As per usual, the fade is not without reason! The Cavaliers are off a loss and the last 3 times they were off a loss by a margin less than a dozen points, Cleveland has gone a perfect 3-0 SU. Also, the Raptors are off a road loss (SU and ATS) at Chicago but, prior to this, the road team was on an 11-1 ATS run in Toronto games. Look for that strong road trend to resume here. The Cavs already won all 3 meetings with Raptors this season and average margin of 18 points per victory. Look for another road win here. 10* CLEVELAND +5.5 |
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03-24-22 | Michigan v. Villanova -4.5 | Top | 55-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
NCAA PA Dominator Thursday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats -4.5 vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7:29 ET - The Wolverines are off an upset win over Tennessee but a closer look at how that played out tells you all you need to know. Michigan actually had 13 LESS field goal attempts than the Volunteers but they managed to win the game handily because the Vols shot 2 of 18 from three point land! Also, Michigan had 15 turnovers compared to just 7 for Tennessee. Now we get line value here with one of the best teams in the country laying a short number, in part, due to the upset win for the Wolverines over Tennessee. On a neutral court, the Wildcats are much better than just a 5-point differential in comparison with Wolverines. Villanova enters this game having won 12 of 13 games and the Wildcats have seen 9 of those 12 victories come by a margin of at least 5 points. I am sure this one will too. 10* VILLANOVA -4.5 |
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03-24-22 | Arkansas +10 v. Gonzaga | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
NCAA Earliest Cash Thursday 9* Top Play Arkansas Razorbacks +10 vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 7:09 ET - The Razorbacks played the tougher regular season schedule in comparison with Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are a great team of course and ranked #1 in the nation but this is a tough spot for them to win by double digits. They barely got by Memphis and remember they lost at St Mary's in final game of February. Arkansas enters this game having won 17 of 20 and 2 of those 3 losses were by just 4 or less points. Look for another tight game here and having the big points on your side is the way to go in this one. 9* ARKANSAS +10 |
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03-23-22 | Knicks +7.5 v. Hornets | Top | 121-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Contrarian Crusher Wednesday 10* Top Play New York Knicks +7.5 @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:10 ET - This line has jumped from Charlotte as a very small home favorite all the way up to as high as 7.5 points. In typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the line move and going with the big underdog. The Knicks are in 2nd game of a B2B but the last time they were in this situation they won by 16 points in the 2nd game of the B2B. New York is off B2B losses but last night's defeat was by just 6 points after Sunday's loss was by a double digit margin. Also, note all this was preceded by a 5-2 stretch SU and an 8 game run in which the only 3 SU losses were each by 4 or less points! Tremendous big dog value here when you consider that, althought the Hornets are on a 5-game winning streak, this was preceded by a 3-7 SU run. Also, Charlotte is playing 3rd game in 5 days so their scheduling situation truly not that much better than that of the Knicks. 10* NEW YORK +7.5 |
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03-23-22 | NC-Wilmington v. Middle Tennessee -4.5 | Top | 96-90 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
CBB CBI Championship Winner Wednesday 10* Top Play Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders -4.5 vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks @ 5 ET - Middle Tennessee has some edges here and it makes me very comfortable in laying the 4.5 points in this one. The Seahawks are playing a 4th straight day in going for the CBI Championship today. Conversely, the Blue Raiders first game of this tournament was Saturday. The off day that Middle Tennessee had Sunday could pay major dividends here as they should have the fresher legs in pushing for the CBI Title! Also, the Blue Raiders have been the better shooting team on the season plus the better team in terms of defending including shutting down the 3-ball too. Those better numbers are a big reason that UNC Wilmington had just a 1-point win Monday while the Blue Raiders wins Monday and Tuesday were by a combined 46 points! Look for the favorite to pull away in the 2nd half for another big win here. 10* MIDDLE TENNESSEE |
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03-22-22 | Warriors v. Magic OVER 215.5 | Top | 90-94 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conf Total of the Month Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 215.5 in Orlando Magic vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:10 ET - After a low-scoring grinding 90-85 win for the Magic Sunday over the Thunder, look for a high-scoring game here. Orlando games were on a 3-0 run to the over before that crazy low-scoring game over the weekend. The Warriors are allowing an average of 114.6 points per game last 10 games. Golden State had one ugly game offensively in that 10-game stretch but scored an average of 116.4 points per game in the other 9 games. Given all of the above, and the non-conference element to this match-up as well, we should see plenty of points as this one gets into the 220s. 10* OVER 215.5 in Orlando |
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03-22-22 | St Bonaventure v. Virginia -3 | Top | 52-51 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
CBB NIT Tourney Smash Tuesday 10* Top Play Virginia Cavaliers -3 vs St Bonaventure Bonnies @ 7 ET - The Bonnies have surprisingly won back to back road games to reach this point in the NIT Tourney. However, entering this tournament, St Bonaventure had averaged scoring only 58 points in last 5 games away from home. Now the Bonnies are on the road taking on a Cavaliers team known for tough defense! Virginia will stifle St Bonaventure here and pull away in the latter stages. The Cavs last 8 wins have come by an average margin of 8 points. Lay the short number here for the big win. 10* VIRGINIA |
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03-21-22 | Blazers v. Pistons OVER 222 | Top | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Earliest Cash Monday 10* Top Play OVER 222 in Detroit Pistons vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 7:10 ET - The Blazers off a ridiculous under, as I know all too well, as they scored just 16 points in the 4th quarter last night of a game that looked like a sure over. This followed 4 straight overs involving Portland and I expect to get my money back on a Trail Blazers over tonight! We will come right back with Blazers game over the total here. Keep in mind, Portland has allowed 125 points per game last dozen games. The Pistons will score well here as they have gone on a 13-1 ATS tear thanks to playing better of late. Detroit can lean on a huge offensive performance here as they catch the Trail Blazers in the 2nd game of a back to back. 10* OVER 222 in Detroit |
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03-21-22 | Middle Tennessee -4 v. Boston University | Top | 76-46 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
CBI Tourney Smash Monday 10* Top Play Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders -4 vs Boston University Terriers @ 6 ET - The Terriers had to play yesterday and they were down by 7 at the half before rallying in the 2nd half for the 3 point win over UNC Greensboro. That said, Middle Tennessee has an advantage because they played Saturday so they have an extra day of rest. Also, the Blue Raiders are the better team defensively in comparison with the Terriers. I also like the fact that Middle Tennessee was the better team ATS in comparison with Boston University this season and feel they are again undervalued here. Lay the short number here with the better team and look for a win by a double digit margin as the more rested team pulls away as this game goes on. 10* MIDDLE TENNESSEE -4 |
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03-20-22 | Texas v. Purdue -3 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
NCAA 2nd Rd Game of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play Purdue Boilermakers -3 vs Texas Longhorns @ 8:40 ET - Great line value here in my opinion. Purdue is off a blowout win over Yale. The Boilermakers have now won 12 of 18 games away from home this season and here we are only having to lay 3 points to have the much stronger team in this match-up. The Longhorns managed to get a win over Virginia Tech Friday but entered that game with only 5 wins in 13 games away from home prior to that! The Boilermakers are a much better shooting team in comparison with Texas. The Horns making only 43% from the field in road games this season and overall 33% of threes this season. Purdue is hitting overall 39% of threes this season and 49% from the field overall. Before beating the Hokies, the Longhorns had been held to 63 or less points in 3 straight games. The Boilermakers have averaged 73 points last 3 games. Texas will not be able to keep up in this one. 10* PURDUE -3 |
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03-20-22 | Miami-FL v. Auburn OVER 142.5 | Top | 79-61 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
NCAA Total of the Week Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 142.5 in Auburn Tigers vs Miami Hurricanes @ 7:45 ET - The Tigers one of the best teams in the country and just 1 under last 5 times they have been a favorite. Auburn has scored 80 or more in 3 of last 4. Miami will struggle to try to slow down the Tigers and will be forced to score well in this game to keep up. The Hurricanes are off an under but this followed overs in 6 of last 7 games. The Canes off a 68-66 win over USC but this followed scoring an average of 75.4 points the 10 games leading into that one. 10* OVER 142.5 in Auburn |
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03-20-22 | Blazers v. Pacers OVER 233 | Top | 98-129 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Daytime Dominator Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 233 in Indiana Pacers vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 3:40 ET - The over is 4-0 in last 4 Blazers games and they have allowed 125.4 points per game last 10 games! The Pacers are off an under but the game did total 239 points and Indiana has not had B2B unders in a very long time. I do not expect that fact to change here as this one flies over the total! The over is 24-11 in Pacers home games this season. 10* OVER 233 in Indiana |
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03-19-22 | Richmond +3 v. Providence | Top | 51-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
CBB Contrarian Crusher Saturday 10* Top Play Richmond Spiders +3 vs Providence Friars @ 6:10 ET - This line looks funny does it not? Providence only favored by 3 over Richmond? Look at the records...look at the rankings...look at the seedings. You get my point and these are the types of situations I love to look for. I am going to ride this Spiders team as they are red hot and full of confidence. Richmond is on a 15-6 SU run and 4 of those 6 losses by 3 or less points. This Spiders team plays very well defensively and the Friars are going to have their hands full in this one. Give me the points! That was a solid Iowa team playing very well and with a such a potent offense and Richmond got the upset win over the Hawkeyes. That said, they can certainly knock off this Providence team too. We'll grab the points with the Spiders as added insurance. 10* RICHMOND +3 |
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03-19-22 | Bucks v. Wolves +3 | Top | 119-138 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Earliest Dominator Saturday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +3 vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 5:10 ET - Both teams playing well but the Wolves are not getting enough respect on their home floor here and I am happy to grab them as a home dog in this one. Minnesota has won 9 of last 10 games and also already beat the Bucks earlier this season in Milwaukee. The Bucks are off B2B road covers but this was preceded by a 5-7 ATS stretch overall. The Timberwolves are 23-12 at home while the Bucks are 20-14 on the road this season. But due to long-term reputation of these teams this game is priced this way. We'll take advantage. Give me the points! 10* MINNESOTA |