Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-05-24 | Miami-FL +6 v. Virginia | Top | 38-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
CBB Monday Miami Hurricanes (+) @ Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - Certainly I have plenty of respect for Virginia and they are arguably the best team defensively in the nation. However, there is line value here with a live dog catching about a half-dozen points against a Cavaliers team that has had a somewhat friendly ACC schedule so far. Virginia has played 11 conference games so far and 4 of them were against Louisville and Notre Dame and each of those teams are 2-9 in ACC action! Also, the Cavs have played Georgia Tech who is 3-8 and NC State who is 4-6 as well as Syracuse and Virginia Tech and each of those teams is 5-6 in ACC action. So that leaves 3 games against teams that currently (like Miami) have a winning record in ACC action. Those 3 games saw Virginia lose by double digits at Wake Forest and at NC State! They did win the rematch with the Wolfpack here but that 6-point win was in OT. The fact is that Virginia could very easily be 0-3 against teams that currently have a winning record in ACC action on the season and I feel the Canes are vastly undervalued here. The line has moved toward Virginia here so we have even more line value and I am grabbing the points (currently 6 as of 10 hours before tipoff) and expect this to be a great game where the points prove invaluable in a tight finish. MIAMI (+) |
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02-04-24 | Providence v. Villanova -4.5 | Top | 50-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Rotation #856: Sunday CBB Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Providence Friars @ 6 ET - Many Wildcats fans in Philly have lost faith in coach Kyle Neptune and are calling for his firing. However, the team is rallying around this and fully support him. The reason they are on a 5-game losing streak is they are not quite the same team they once for sure but also take a deeper look at this run! The 5 losses included one at Butler in double OT and was a game Nova never trailed in. Also, the Wildcats other 4 losses included just one ugly one versus St John's and the other 3 were losses against ranked teams including top-ranked UConn. In other words, the Cats are not as strong as past teams but they certainly deserve a little leeway on the tough recent run. Now they host a Providence team they have double revenge against! This is the first meeting between these teams and last season the Friars beat the Cats in both games in Neptune's first season. In other words, this has not been forgotten and Nova also so hungry for a win in this spot and they are at home. Remember they are 3-1 SU in last 4 home games versus unranked foes! This is a game they can (and will) win. Providence is just 3-5 SU last 8 games and 2 of those wins were against the two worst Big East teams - DePaul and Georgetown. Value here with a reasonable line with a desperate, revenge-minded home team here. Lay it! Payback! 10* VILLANOVA (-) |
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02-04-24 | Temple +10.5 v. Tulane | Top | 80-92 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Rotation #849: Sunday Temple Owls (+) @ Tulane Green Wave @ 4 ET - This line is now in the double digit range and it is just too much. The Owls have a sub-par record but they are fighting hard and there is no quit in this team. As a result, they are hanging tight in many of their recent defeats and I expect more of the same here. Temple is just 2-7 SU last 9 games but each of last 3 losses by 6 or less points. Tulane has the better record on the season but, keep in mind, they have not exactly been setting the world on fire of late! The Green Wave have lost 6 of last 8 games and both wins were by 7 or less points. Also, Tulane is off a tough loss at SMU and have a tough game at Memphis on deck. Memphis was a ranked team not too long ago and don't be surprised when this game, given all the situational aspects, is decided by a single digit margin. TEMPLE (+) |
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02-03-24 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Baylor | Top | 68-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
Rotation #789 CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (+) @ Baylor Bears @ 8 ET - The Cyclones have won 11 of 13 games. The Bears are off a win but this followed a 5-5 stretch and was on the heels of 3 straight losses for Baylor. The Bears certainly have revenge on their minds from losing all 3 games to Iowa State last season. However, the Cyclones look like the stronger team this season without a doubt. That said, the Bears laying about 4 points here is just too much because these teams are not equal on a neutral floor in my opinion. Also, Baylor is facing a Cyclones team that is among the best in the nation for steals per game with 11.2 and I look for Iowa State to force enough turnovers here to capitalize and grab the road win. We'll grab the points just in case but note that the Cyclones are looking to make it 4 in a row over the Bears and certainly will have no shortage of confidence in facing Baylor here. 10* IOWA STATE (+) |
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02-03-24 | Maryland v. Michigan State OVER 129.5 | Top | 54-63 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Rotation #725: CBB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Michigan State Spartans vs Maryland Terrapins @ 5:30 ET - These teams recently met and the game total just 120 points but it was on pace for 152 points based on a 44-32 score at the half! That said, I feel we have a lot of value here with the posted total on this around 130 points as of about 5 hours before tipoff. I do respect both defenses. However, you must also keep in mind that the Spartans are off a big win over their biggest rival, Michigan, and their defense may not be their best here. Also, MSU is averaging 76 ppg this season and Maryland is averaging 70 ppg this season. As you can see, we have some "wiggle room" with this total when you consider scoring numbers like that. The Terrapins have scored at least 69 points in 4 of last 5. As for the Spartans, against teams not named Maryland, they have scored 66 points or more in 12 of last 13 games! Most of those saw Michigan State reach at least the 70 point mark also. I look for both teams to get well past the mid-60s in this one given the above and that gets this team well into the 130s. 10* OVER the total in Michigan State |
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02-03-24 | Rutgers +4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
CBB Rotation #691: Saturday Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+) @ Michigan Wolverines @ 4 ET - This line is currently as high as a 4.5 as of about 5 hours before tipoff. Rutgers is off a crazy game in which they made just 1 of 17 from 3-point land. I am sure they will bounce back here. The Scarlet Knights have allowed just 66 ppg this season. The Wolverines have lost 9 of 10 games and allowed 83 ppg during this stretch. I like scrappy underdogs that are facing fellow weak teams that have a tendency to not play defense. Look for the Scarlet Knights to force an ugly low-scoring scrappy game and that leads to a great shot at the upset or, worst case, a tight finish likely decided by a single possession. The points are well worth it here. 10* RUTGERS (+) |
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02-02-24 | Butler v. Creighton -10.5 | Top | 99-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
CBB Friday Creighton Bluejays (-) vs Butler Bulldogs @ 9 ET - Butler's most recent game was against Villanova and we had the Wildcats there. The Bulldogs pulled off a miracle with a double-OT win in a game they NEVER LED in regulation and trailed by as much as 14 points in the SECOND HALF of the game. Give Butler some credit but also know that the Wildcats are proving to be a shell of the type of teams they use to be under head coach Jay Wright. Other than that miracle win over a Nova team that is proving to be one of the 3 worst teams in the conference AND an amazing win over Marquette on a rare night in which the Golden Eagles had a rare horrific shooting night, the Bulldogs other 3 wins are against the two worst teams in the Big East. That trio of victories coming against DePaul and Georgetown. The point is that this Butler team is 5-5 in Big East action but I am not impressed. Conversely, the Bluejays are chasing UConn for the top spot in the Big East and they are at home for this one where they are so strong and tend to shoot the ball very well. I also like the fact they have some size inside and this will frustrate Butler and the Bulldogs will struggle to get easy buckets all night long. That is why this is one of those rare instances where I am willing to lay bigger points as this one is a line that is currently in the -10 range as of about 10 hours before tipoff. Lay it! CREIGHTON (-) |
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02-01-24 | Drexel -4 v. Monmouth | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation #737: CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons @ Monmouth Hawks @ 7 ET - The Dragons bounced back nicely from their very first CAA loss of the season (by just 3 points at Towson) by coming up big at home against NC AT & T. The Dragons are a very strong defensive team and they are strong on the offensive boards and they are a very deep team. Those are the kind of gritty teams that can win big games and it is a big reason Drexel is having such a solid season including now 8-1 in CAA action. As for Monmouth, the Hawks did almost upset the Dragons at Drexel last month in CAA action. However, the Hawks shot surprisingly well in that game and Drexel did not and yet the Dragons still pulled out the 4 point win. Also, all 7 of the Dragons CAA wins have been by 4 or more points this season. The current line on this one is a 4 as of about 9 hours before tipoff. Monmouth is not as strong defensively or on the boards or in terms of shooting percentage on offense either. They are 4-4 in CAA action but had lost 4 of 5 (with the only win over a bad Hampton team) prior to coming up with a win versus Hofstra in most recent game. Hofstra has not beaten any of the top tier teams in the CAA either so that win is not ultra impressive. Monmouth will have their hands full here against a Dragons team that already tasted defeat once in their most recent road game and they are very motivated and hungry here as a result in their very next road opportunity as they look to add to an 8-1 conference record. Monmouth just 9-17 SU in last 26 conference games. 10* DREXEL (-) |
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02-01-24 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Green Bay OVER 133.5 | Top | 56-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
Rotation #735: CBB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay vs IUPUI @ Noon ET - This total in the 134 range as of about 6 hours before tipoff. Green Bay a heavy favorite with good reason here but don't be surprised if IUPUI scores well enough to hang around in this one for awhile and that will help push this one over the total. The Jaguars have averaged scoring 75 ppg in their last two road games. However, the issue with this team is they continue to allow far too many points. IUPUI has allowed 81 ppg their last 9 games. So if the oddsmakers are correct, as they so often are, about GB being a 12 point favorite here, that would put this game finishing at 81 to 69 Green Bay if IUPUI allows their typical average. That means we have a lot of wiggle room when you consider this total is in the mid-130s. I do believe GB can get to the 80 point range here. The Phoenix have played 11 games since an ugly loss to Oklahoma back in mid-December. In those 11 games they have gone 9-2 and had only 1 ugly loss. In the other 10 games they averaged 77 ppg and now they face one of the worst teams in the Horizon League. Indeed 81 to 69 sounds about right here! The Phoenix tend to play with a little more tempo on their home floor and I expect that to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay |
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01-31-24 | Florida v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 94-91 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats (-) vs Florida Gators @ 8 ET - This line has come down from the -7 range down to as low as a -5.5 on Kentucky as of about 7 hours before tipoff. Note that the Wildcats won the first meeting this season at Florida and that was despite the Gators outscoring them by 12 points from three point land. The Cats were an uncharacteristic 5 of 20 from 3-point land in that one. UK still won that game on the road despite the shooting variance. Now they are at home and hosting a Florida team that is just 1-3 in true road games. The only win was against a Missouri team that is having a tough season including 0-7 in SEC games! The point is that the signs strongly point to a home win here but now, what about the all important cover? Well, Kentucky has 15 wins on the season and the 2 point win over Florida and a 4 point win over a ranked UNC team are the only wins they have this season by less than 6 points! As for Florida, their last 4 losses included the 2 point defeat at home versus Kentucky and then 3 losses all by double digit margins! Look for this one to be the next one! 10* KENTUCKY (-) |
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01-30-24 | Wyoming v. Air Force -4 | Top | 83-72 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Air Force Falcons (-) vs Wyoming Cowboys @ 9 ET - Double revenge spot for Wyoming from last season and they are much higher in the conference standings and Air Force has lost 9 of 10 games! That said, why are the Falcons favored by 4 here? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you. This Falcons team is the better team defensively, stronger on their home floor and they catch Wyoming off a huge OT upset win over Colorado State where they celebrated as if they just won the MWC Championship! The point is that the Cowboys could be flat here while the Falcons are at home and hungry and then here is another big key that might surprise you to hear. In true road games this season, Wyoming is still winless! The Cowboys are not only 0-7 SU on the road this season, they also have lost all 7 games by double digits! That means they are being asked to do something they have not managed to do in a single road game this season - that is to lose by less than 10 points! Considering this line is a 4 that means this is a go-against Wyoming spot that is a perfect 7-0 this season! Look for this one to make it 8-0 ON THE SEASON as the Falcons also catch the Cowboys off that huge upset win of a ranked team in OT! 10* AIR FORCE (-) |
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01-30-24 | Marquette v. Villanova -125 | Top | 85-80 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats -1.5 -115 or Pick'em -125 vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 7 ET - A number of books have this line at -1.5 but with a little extra juice at -115. That being said, for just 10 cents more it is worth looking at the money line here which is available as low as 125. Note that Villanova is off a game in which they NEVER trailed in regulation time at Butler and led by as many as 14 points in the 2nd half! The Bulldogs rallied including a late bucket to force OT. Then in first OT the Wildcats again looked like they had the game own only to give up late scoring to force a second OT. Villanova then lost the 2nd OT by 7 points and it was a tough loss. Were they on the road again here I might be concerned. But at home and playing with revenge from a double digit margin of defeat at Marquette couple week ago, this is a great spot to back a Wildcats team that has lost 4 straight games. I had to keep looking further back and further back and finally I found out that is has been more than a DECADE since Villanova has lost 5 straight games. Also, the last 10 times that the Wildcats were at home and entering a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more, they have won the game all 10 times. Perfect 10-0 SU mark and I just do not see the hungry Cats being denied here. Keep in mind, the Golden Eagles are just 2-2 SU on the Big East road and one of those wins was against a DePaul team that is now 3-17! Also, Marquette lost to the same Butler team that the Wildcats just to in double OT but the Golden Eagles lost by 7 and they were at home for that game. There is a reason that this highly ranked road team is an underdog in this one! Don't let the line fool you. The Wildcats improve to 11-0 SU when in this situation! 10* VILLANOVA -1.5 -115 or Pick'em -125 |
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01-29-24 | Houston v. Texas +5.5 | Top | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
CBB Monday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns (+) vs Houston Cougars @ 9 ET - Grabbing the +5.5 that is currently available as of about 13 hours before tipoff. When the betting markets are down on a team it is oftentimes the best time to back said team! That is the case here with the Longhorns! Texas has lost 3 of 5 and just lost at BYU by double digits. However, now they are a home dog to a Houston team that is very strong but proving to certainly not be unbeatable. Now, I am not saying the Horns win this outright but I am saying that I certainly will not be shocked if that happens and I feel we have excellent value here with the sizable points available. Remember that Texas won at Oklahoma and beat Baylor in their two games prior to the loss at BYU. All 3 of these teams the Longhorns have just faced are ranked teams and, of course, Houston is as well. However, the Cougars have lost 2 of last 3 road games and those were at TCU and Iowa State. Texas is arguably at a similar level to both the Horned Frogs and Cyclones so, the point is, we have some definite home dog value here. UT hungry off a loss while the Cougars could get caught looking ahead to their next game at Kansas. Yes the Jayhawks are down a little this season but they are still one of the top programs in the country annually and Houston entered the Big 12 this season knowing that Kansas, year in and year out, has a tendency to be the team to beat in this conference. Definite possibility of a lookahead here and Austin will be rocking for this home game! 10* TEXAS (+) |
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01-28-24 | Nevada v. New Mexico OVER 153.5 | Top | 55-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 153.5 in New Mexico Lobos vs Nevada Wolfpack @ 10 ET - The MWC has a lot of strong teams with solid overall records. Certainly the Wolfpack are better than their 3-3 conference record shows. However, this Lobos team is red hot and so strong at home. The way I see it the best way to get involved in this game is the over! New Mexico has already scored 84 points or more in 60% of their games this season. The Lobos enter this game on a 4 game winning streak in which they have averaged scoring 92 ppg! The Wolfpack have struggled a bit in recent games but they still have scored an average of 77 ppg this season. Keep in mind, if Nevada hits their average here and the spread is correct on this one with Lobos about a 9 point favorite, you are talking about a game that gets into the 160s! The Lobos are red hot but have allowed 76 ppg last 5 games. They are not afraid to get in up-tempo games at The Pit in Albuquerque and I look for this one to be an absolute track meet! 10* OVER 153.5 in New Mexico |
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01-27-24 | Villanova +110 v. Butler | Top | 81-88 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
CBB Rotation #671: Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats +110 @ Butler Bulldogs @ 3 ET - The Wildcats have lost 3 straight but are a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. This perfect SU run dates back to last season and I am going money line here. After getting embarrassed at St John's, the Wildcats will be ready to go here. Keep in mind that their other two losses in this 3-game losing streak were both to ranked teams including a 1-point loss to #1 ranked UConn! Prior to this, the Wildcats had won 5 of 6 games including 3 against respectable opponents. This is one of the big keys here because Butler has 4 wins in Big East action but 3 of the 4 were against Georgetown and DePaul and those are the worst teams in the conference. Yes, the Bulldogs did win at Creighton but that is the lone outlier and it only happened because the Bluejays had an unusually poor shooting night. The Jays were unbelievably bad in the shooting department that night. So the point is that the Bulldogs are a bit over-valued coming into this one and the Wildcats are a bit under-valued. We take advantage and the Cats improve to a perfect 5-0 SU last 5 times they have been in this situation. No points needed! 10* VILLANOVA +110 |
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01-27-24 | North Carolina A&T v. Drexel OVER 142 | Top | 47-62 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
CBB Rotation #663: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Drexel Dragons vs North Carolina AT & T Aggies @ 2 ET - The Dragons off the tough loss at Towson in a game in which they did not shoot well. Now they are back home in Philly and ready to explode on offense. They are known for shooting much better here and they will be able to run and gun against a NC AT & T team not known for defense. The Aggies can stop no one but they do have a big scorer in Glasper. The key here is he was one of 4 guys in double digits in their most recent game but that was a loss at Delaware in which they allowed 90 points. Drexel will win this one big and they are a huge favorite for a reason, but the value rather than laying about 18 points here is certainly on the over the way I see it. Drexel will be anxious to have a huge game at home and will push the tempo against a bad defense. They will get much better looks than they did against Towson. However, the key here is the Aggies have some scoring power and will at least be willing to run and gun here even at their own detriment. This total has dropped to the low 140s and, for example, if the Aggies only get to 65 points but the spread posted on this one is about right, that still puts this game in the upper 140s. I am looking for a 90-70 type game given the situation and the defensive struggles of NC AT & T continue here. 10* OVER the total in Drexel |
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01-26-24 | Stanford v. California OVER 153.5 | Top | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 153.5 in California vs Stanford @ 10 ET - The Cardinal shoot the ball so well and the Golden Bears are on their home floor and are also a high-scoring team. So you have two higher-scoring teams and the team with the lower FG % is on their home floor where they tend to be at their best. That is the perfect ingredients for an over and I believe this total will prove to be too low. Stanford is shooting 48% from the field and they have one rare exception, a 59-53 win, that if it was included in their stats their numbers would be even more impressive in terms of point totals. In their other recent 6 games they have averaged scoring 85 ppg. The Cardinal have allowed 81 ppg in their other 5 recent games played away from home. I would truly not be surprised to see this one get into the 160s and we have a total in the low 150s here. California also has won recent outlier versus UCLA but their other 7 recent games have averaged 157 points. Last year when Cal hosted Stanford, the game totaled 162 points and I expect something similar tonight. 10* OVER 153.5 in California |
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01-25-24 | Drexel +1.5 v. Towson | Top | 67-70 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #755: CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons (+) @ Towson Tigers @ 7 ET - I like games like this in which the line flips. Drexel has gone from being a small favorite when this opened to now being a small dog in the 1.5 point range as of about 6 hours before tipoff. Something has to give here as the Dragons are 7-0 in conference play but the Tigers are 8-0 L8 home games. I like the way this Drexel is such a cohesive group and they have the better numbers on both ends of the floor. The Dragons have a higher shooting percentage on the offensive end and they are one of the top 25 teams defensively in the nation! Towson is solid defensively but not as strong as Drexel and the Tigers offense often bogs down against top defensive units. Home court is important in college hoops especially but the odds makers are certainly well aware of that as well. That being said, the Dragons were installed as the favorite here with good reason. I am fading the line move and rolling with a defensive-minded road dog that has meshed well this season. This team is very cohesive as I noted above and a true "team" that is building a winning culture. Season after season of late the Dragons are looking better and better. Now they sit at the top of the conference and that is not a perch they will give up easily. They are ready for this game and have solid team depth also. 10* DREXEL (+) |
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01-24-24 | Villanova +3.5 v. St. John's | Top | 50-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #723: CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (+) @ St John's Red Storm @ 8:30 ET - The Wildcats lost the first meeting at home by double digits this season. It was a 10 point defeat thanks in part to the Red Storm hitting 44% of their threes while Villanova was a horrible 6 of 28 from beyond the arc! Overall in the game St John's hit 48% from the field while Nova hit just 39% from the field. Now we have a nice revenge spot set up here and the Wildcats are hungry but also confident in this rematch. That's because they just put a scare into the #1 team in the country when they nearly upset UConn this past weekend! I know some will look and say that they are spent after a loss like that, the reality is the Wildcats are hungry because they know they almost did it but almost is not good enough of course. They will have great determination here and we can take advantage of a line that was lower but has moved higher on the Red Storm. I love fading line moves like that. Note that St John's has not been great. The Red Storm have lost 3 straight and now face a team that swept them last season and that normally holds the upper hand in this series. Prior to the upset win by St John's earlier this season, the Wildcats had beaten them 6 straight times. The Cats are not what they used to be under Hall of Fame coach Jay Wright but they are showing signs of turning the corner on this season as the 1-point loss to the Huskies shows. I expect an outright win here but we'll grab the points just in case. 10* VILLANOVA (+) |
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01-23-24 | Boise State v. Fresno State +6 | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Fresno State Bulldogs (+) vs Boise State Broncos @ 10:30 ET - This line is in the 5.5 to 6 range as of about 10 hours before tipoff and it is a great spot for a home dog upset. We will grab the points just in case but the Bulldogs are playing this game with triple revenge and the set-up is perfect. Not only did Fresno State lose last season's meeting, they also lost both meetings the season before and that included the only home loss out of these three games coming in OT. Not only do the Bulldogs have plenty of motivation here, the setup is perfect. Boise State is off a hard-fought 1-point win over San Diego State while Fresno State is off one of their worst performances of the season. The Bulldogs just lost by 21 points at ranked Utah State. Fresno State was on a 5-5 run prior to that with 2 of those losses by 3 or less points. They have played a road-heavy schedule too so they are offering extra value here on their home floor after 5 of their last 7 games have been on the road. Boise State, on the other hand, has had very few true road games this season and 8 of their last 11 have been home games. Based purely on records, everyone will be looking at the road team in this one but the situational edge and motivational edge is all Bulldogs in this one. 10* FRESNO STATE (+) |
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01-22-24 | Wake Forest +8 v. North Carolina | Top | 64-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
CBB Monday 10* Top Play Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) @ North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7 ET - Yes this will be a tough test for the Demon Deacons but, as of 11 hours before tipoff, 8 is the line on this game. That is noteworthy as Wake Forest is 13-5 this season and has not lost a game by more than 7 points! So WF, based on the line in this game, would be 18-0 on the season. Also, in their most recent game the Demon Deacons just got senior Damari Monsanto back and he has been a solid contributor in his career and already produced a solid showing in his first game of this season. He is a strong 3-point shooter so having him back is a key. Monsanto delivered 12 points in the win. Plenty of respect for this Tar Heels team but UNC is facing a confident Wake Forest team that is playing with an extra boost right now after the return of Monsanto. Also, the Demon Deacons beat the Tar Heels in their most recent meeting last season. Don't be surprised if this game goes to the wire. 10* WAKE FOREST (+) |
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01-21-24 | Indiana State -5 v. Murray State | Top | 72-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
Sunday CBB 10* Top Play Indiana State Sycamores (-) @ Murray State Racers @ 5 ET - Even though the Racers lost the 2nd meeting last season, the first meeting was a loss for the Sycamores at Murray State. That being said, there is no way that Indiana State is overlooking this match-up and they are just too strong for Murray State. The Sycamores are 15-3 this season and their only 3 losses were to Michigan State, Alabama and Drake. Note that Drake is another of the top teams in the MVC just like Indiana State. As for the Racers, 4 of their 5 conference wins have come against 3 teams that have a combined 6-18 record in the MVC. So, even though Murray State has been hot, it deserves an asterisk. The Sycamores on a whole other level. Lay it! This line currently in the 5 to 5.5 range. 10* INDIANA STATE (-) |
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01-20-24 | Connecticut -3.5 v. Villanova | Top | 66-65 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
Rotation #793: CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Connecticut Huskies (-) @ Villanova Wildcats @ 8 ET - The Wildcats are just not on the level of prior teams in the Jay Wright years. Yes they are a solid team and they are at home here. However, that is what is keeping this line lower than it should be because the Huskies are a elite team and the Wildcats are not. Connecticut only has 2 losses this season and they were on the road but against Kansas, one of top teams in country and Seton Hall, the other strongest team in the Big East Conference along with UConn. That said, excellent value with this line in the 3.5 range as of 8 hours before tipoff. The Wildcats have only won 5 of 10 games and, of the 5 wins, two were against a very bad DePaul team and one was against a UCLA team struggling badly at the time. Though they did have a surprising win over Creighton their only other win of these 5 was against a Xavier team that has only been mediocre so far this season. That said, the Huskies wins have all been by at least 4 points and they have not lost to a team that is on the level of the Wildcats this entire season. Huskies win and Huskies cover! 10* CONNECTICUT (-) |
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01-19-24 | Akron +1 v. Kent State | Top | 77-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Rotation #887 Friday: Akron Zips (pick'em) @ Kent State Golden Flashes @ 7 ET - The Zips played their most recent game without Nate Johnson but Ali Ali came back mid-December and Akron is 8-1 in the 9 games he has played in with the only loss coming by a single point. Ali Ali has been fantastic. Also, this is a great spot for Akron as this is a double revenge spot. Not only did the Zips lose in their late season visit to Kent State late last season, the Golden Flashes then knocked them out of the conference tourney soon after that as well! In other words, high motivation here and this is a big rivalry match-up and we get line value since this one is at Kent State. The fact is that Akron has been the much stronger team early this season and they enter this game winners of 5 straight and 9 of 10. The Golden Flashes enter this game off a win but had lost 5 of 6 games prior to that victory. Home court matters a lot in college basketball but it is not enough to get this Kent State team over the hump against a double revenge-minded rival that is in better current form. 10* AKRON Pick'em |
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01-18-24 | Washington +2.5 v. California | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #819: CBB Thursday Washington Huskies (+) @ California Golden Bears @ 9 ET - This line has swung from Huskies being roughly a 2 point favorite to now the Bears being roughly a 2.5 point favorite as of about 11 hours before tipoff. I like fading line moves like this plus there is a lot more to like about this play! For starters Cal is overvalued here. Lets not forget this Golden Bears team is coming off a 3-29 season. In a season with so many losses like that, there would be very few where payback would matter but the one that ended their season was a loss to Washington State in the Conference Tourney. The Bears have the Cougars on deck and certainly that one would be more of an attention-getter than this one! Also this is a Cal team that is now 30-80 the past 3 and 1/2 seasons! As for the Huskies, they are off their worst loss of the season. Washington just lost by double digits. Prior to this, the Huskies were 10-6 this season with all losses by a single-digit margin and by an average margin of just 4 points! Coming off the double digit loss and facing a team that has won only 27% of games last 3 and 1/2 seasons, I like our chances here! We get excellent line value because the Huskies are on the road. Yes, home court matters, but Cal has been losing everywhere in recent seasons including this one! The Bears did beat Colorado here but, other than that, their wins are nothing to write home about AND in that win over the Buffaloes they were down by as many as 20 points. The Huskies are well aware of that and will keep their pedal to the metal all game long in this one. Now getting as much as 2.5 points here as of gameday morning, love the value in this one. WASHINGTON (+) |
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01-17-24 | Northern Iowa -120 v. Belmont | Top | 83-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #723: CBB Wednesday: Northern Iowa Panthers (-) or Pick'em @ Belmont Bruins @ 9 ET - This line is currently in the -1.5 range at -110 but also there is some pick'em -120 out there to utilize and that would be the preferable option here. Belmont just joined the MVC last season. Not only did the Bruins beat the Panthers in both meetings last season, they also beat UNI by 20 at Northern Iowa this season! So that means this is a triple revenge spot for the Panthers in MVC action. Certainly UNI is not happy about giving up 90 POINTS in the home loss earlier this season. Trust me, the betting markets know this too and that is why this line has swung to UNI after Belmont was the small favorite. Note that even though Northern Iowa is on the road, they are the ones now laying the small number here. A big key for me here is that Ja'Kobi Gillespie is the 2nd leading scorer for the Bruins and he is still out. He also leads the team in assists and steals. His loss is a significant one and Belmont is coming off a loss by 30 points at Indiana State. The Panthers are only a .500 team this season and the Bruins have the better record plus are at home for this one. So why is UNI the favorite here? Exactly! The time is right for triple revenge in this one. 10* NORTHERN IOWA (-) |
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01-16-24 | Florida +10.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #623: CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Florida Gators (+) @ Tennessee Volunteers @ 5 ET - The line on this is in the range of 10 points as of about 5 hours before tipoff for this early game on Tuesday. The Volunteers are a great team but the Gators are no slouches and I am going to challenge the Vols to win this thing by double digits. The fact is that Florida has 3 tight losses in the 5 defeats they have this season. In their only truly ugly loss this season (against Ole Miss), it was simply one of those nights when the Rebels were making everything. They just could not miss that night and, other than that, the Gators have been in every game this season. Florida had a big year under their first year coach last year and his 2nd year should end up being just as strong. This is a very talented team that scores well and rebounds well and they will not be intimated on the road. Yes, Barnes is a great veteran coach for the Volunteers and Tennessee does want revenge for last season's loss at Florida. However, this Gators team is solid and the Vols also have Alabama on deck and the Crimson Tide are one of the few remaining undefeated teams in conference games in SEC so far this season. Value on the big dog in this one as revenge is being over-priced here! 10* FLORIDA (+) |
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01-15-24 | La Salle v. St. Joe's OVER 149 | Top | 62-82 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #873: CBB Monday: 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Joe's vs LaSalle Explorers @ 4 ET - This total in the 149 range. The Hawks just a lost a game in which they led by 9 points with a little over 6 minutes to go but never scored a field goal again the rest of the way! That said, the emphasis will be on offensive production here and La Salle is a team they can dominate against in that regard. The Explorers have allowed an average of 77 ppg last 6 games against Div 1 competition. La Salle has averaged scoring 76 ppg this season but St Joseph's is favored by double digits for good reason. The Explorers should get well into the 80s in this one after what just happened in that tough defeat to Loyola Chicago. I mentioned above. They will push the tempo here and the Hawks have averaged scoring 83 points last 6 games! 10* OVER the total in St Joseph's |
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01-14-24 | Washington +1 v. UCLA | Top | 61-73 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Huskies (Pick or +1 or -1) @ UCLA Bruins @ 7 ET - The Bruins are a mess right now and they are hoping to fix things but it won't come quickly and it won't come against a solid Huskies team like this one. UCLA has been trying to fix things for awhile but the issue is that Cronin can't get the confidence of this team back. They get down on offense because their shots won't fall and they don't create the looks they need to on the offensive end so then they fall behind. As they see the scoreboard constantly going against them. their defense and rebounding also starts to struggle as they just lose their confidence. This has been a recurring pattern for this Cronin team this season and I don't see it turning around immediately. They will have to face a weaker foe in the right situation to turn this around. This is not the right team nor the right situation. Huskies roll. 10* WASHINGTON |
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01-13-24 | San Jose State v. Air Force -118 | Top | 70-67 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
Rotation #790: CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Air Force Falcons Pick (-120) vs San Jose State Spartans @ 9:30 ET - This line was around a -3.5 on Air Force but has now dropped to as low as a pick'em as of about 6 hours before tipoff. This is a tremendous value. I know the Falcons are on a 5-game losing streak but Utah State and Nevada were two of those five defeats and those teams have a combined record of 30-3 this season. The other three losses were each by a margin of 5 or less points. In other words, Air Force was on the cusp of victory in each of those 3 defeats. San Jose State is having struggles of their own and the Spartans are on the road here so this simply an over-reaction in the marketplace and we'll hop on the other side of this line move and cash in on the additional value. Also, the Falcons have double revenge from losing both games to the Spartans last season. They will bounce back here. 10* AIR FORCE Pick'em |
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01-12-24 | DePaul v. Villanova OVER 135.5 | Top | 69-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #887: CBB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 135.5 in Villanova Wildcats vs DePaul Blue Demons @ 8:30 ET - The Blue Demons have been getting hammered so far in Big East action but 3 of their 4 games have been against tough foes including this Villanova team. Though they lost 84-48 in the first meeting with the Wildcats this season, they actually had just as many shots from the field and also took two more three-pointers. The difference in that game was that DePaul was way off with their shooting in that game. The Blue Demons only made 30% from the field overall and only 4 of 24 from beyond the arc. Statistical odds give a strong factor that, of course, DePaul will shoot much better in this game. The problem is they can stop no none and Nova is coming off a loss too plus playing at home. So the Wildcats will be fired up for a strong performance at home and I expect the end result to be plenty of points scored in this one. 10* OVER 135.5 in Villanova |
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01-11-24 | Michigan State +3.5 v. Illinois | Top | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Rotation #817: CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (+) @ Illinois Illini @ 9 ET - This is one of those "someone knows something" lines. The Spartans are only 3.5 dogs here as of about 9 hours before game time. That would mean these teams are rated equally on a neutral floor but yet Illinois is a ranked team in the Top Ten and has only 3 losses this season while the Spartans already have 6 losses including 3 in the Big Ten! In what universe could this line be only 3.5 on the Illini given these facts? Exactly! That is why the play here, in my typical contrarian fashion, is absolutely on Michigan State. Keep in mind the Spartans lost the only meeting between these teams last season so this is also a revenge spot for them. The Illini are currently without Terrence Shannon Jr after off the court issue that continues under investigation. Though they only lost by 5 points at Purdue they were down big most of the game and, by as many as 21 points, and they never led the entire way in the 5-point loss. The Illini shot a higher 3 point percentage than usual and that helped the cause and it should have been a loss by double digits. The Spartans also off a loss in which they were done in by turnover margin and points off turnovers killed them. They will respond here. So well-coached under Izzo and they will clean things up here and they catch Illinois off a game in which they gave a lot of effort twice battling back from huge deficits in that game. Spartans have great shot at the upset here but we'll grab the points just in case. Illinois also won both meetings the year before last so this is a double revenge spot. 10* MICHIGAN STATE (+) |
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01-10-24 | Oklahoma +5.5 v. TCU | Top | 71-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Rotation #739 CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners (+) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 9 ET - Much is made of home court edge in College Basketball and certainly it is valid that there is a solid edge in College Hoops for the host. However, this Sooners team is loaded with plenty of upper classmen as well as not freshmen in its entire normal playing rotation. Oklahoma is being undervalued here as they are 13-1 SU this season. I realize they are playing their first true road game of this season but they are 3-1 in neutral site games and plus the players they have got plenty of road experience in the past too. This is not a big group of freshmen going on the road. That said, these teams split last season with each team winning at home including the Sooners knocking off the Horned Frogs in Norman, OK in the last regular season game. That makes this a revenge spot but TCU already has 3 losses this season and I feel strongly that they are over-valued here. We have seen this line go from an opener in the 3-point range to now as high as nearly a half-dozen points in the market place as of about 10 hours before tipoff. If you look at the Frogs schedule so far, they had a soft very early-season schedule. As it has toughened up they have struggled and lost 3 games in the more recent action. Also, they have a huge game on deck with Houston. Not only are the Cougars another Big 12 foe from the same state, they are currently undefeated and #2 in the entire country. This spot going to be a battle down to the wire the way I see it. Also, will there be a normal crowd for this game? The kids at TCU are still on a winter break before classes resume. How much will home court matter? Not enough the way I see it. This is also a well-coached Sooners team and I expect them to surprise here! 10* OKLAHOMA (+) |
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01-09-24 | Kansas State -120 v. West Virginia | Top | 81-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Big 12: Rotation #607: CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Kansas State Wildcats (-) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7 ET - Line value here with this line as low as -1.5 plus there are some pick'em -120 options out there on the money line. This is as of about 7 hours before tipoff. This is a revenge game for the Wildcats as they lost to the Mountaineers in the regular season finale last year. At the time they had a chance at a higher seed in the Big 12 tourney. They went on to lose in their first game of the Big 12 tourney. Here is their first shot at redemption against the Mountaineers and the Cats enter this game 11-1 SU in their last 12 games against unranked foes this season. West Virginia is having a much tougher time so far this season in comparison with Kansas State. The Mountaineers enter this game on a 3-8 run. West Virginia has a reputation of being a tough place play but they already have surprising losses this season with a loss to Radford plus losing by 17 to Pittsburgh here. They also lost to St John's and Monmouth here. This will be payback for the Wildcats and I like them in particular after the line has dropped on this one from its opener. 10* KANSAS STATE (-) |
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01-08-24 | Northeastern +3.5 v. Monmouth | Top | 62-81 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #861: CBB Monday 10* Top Play Northeastern Huskies (+) @ Monmouth Hawks @ 7 ET - The Huskies are just 5-9 this season and the Hawks are 8-6 this season plus hosting this game! That being said, how is it that Monmouth is just a 2.5 to 3.5 point favorite in this one even on their home floor? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you! This one has trap written all over it and I expect Northeastern to roll here just like they did in last year's victory by a 15-point margin. The Huskies have played a tougher schedule than the Hawks so far in my opinion and that is part of the reason this game is priced this way. Again, do not let this line fool you. Grab the underdog here! 10* NORTHEASTERN (+) |
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01-06-24 | Texas Tech +7 v. Texas | Top | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
Rotation #783: CBB Saturday Texas Tech (+) @ Texas @ 8 ET - This is a rivalry game. Last season the home team did win each game but both games were tight. With this one moving as high as a 7 as of 6 hours before tipoff, we have excellent value with the big dog here. UT is ranked and Texas Tech is not but the Red Raiders are off to a hot start this season with only 2 losses and one of those was in OT. They match up well with Texas and are fully capable of pushing Texas to the limit in this one. UT has played a weaker schedule recently and that could hurt them here. Keep in mind, they have not played as well against stronger teams this season. As a ranked team, all the pressuer ison the Horns here as well. Don't be surprised if they are pushed to the limit here and the Red Raiders take this one to the wire. Tech has some veteran leadership which helps in a tough Big 12 road game like this. The visitors will be ready. 10* Texas Tech (+) |
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01-05-24 | Connecticut -4 v. Butler | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
Friday CBB 10* Top Play Connecticut Huskies (-) @ Butler Bulldogs @ 6:30 ET - Last night this side was 6.5 and now it is in the 4 to 4.5 range as of 6.5 hours before tipoff. This is just too low. Connecticut is such a strong team and even against tough, ranked opponents, they have impressed this season. I know the Bulldogs are looking better this season than last season and they have long been known for a strong homecourt edge, however the Huskies are too tough. Note that UConn won both meetings last season, each in blowout fashion. Also, the Bulldogs have often struggled against tougher competition this season. So it is true that Butler is 10-4 this season and the Huskies are only slightly better at 12-2 in terms of SU records. However, look at the talent level of each team and the performance against high-quality foes and you will see that the Huskies have huge edges. With this number coming down, I have no hesitation in getting involved here. 10* CONNECTICUT (-) |
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01-04-24 | NC-Wilmington v. Drexel -120 | Top | 63-78 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #768: CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons Pick'em -120 vs UNC-Wilmington Seahawks @ 7 ET - The Dragons were favored by about 3 but have dropped to nearly a pick'em in the -120 range in some spots (keep an eye on money lines) with this one. Drexel has been quietly surprising and people in the Philly area see it but many other don't. The fact is that the Dragons recent loss at Bryant was a wake-up call after B2B blowout wins. Drexel has won their other 3 recent games and dominated those by a an average score of 96 to 59! The Dragons face a traditionally tough customer in the form of the Seahawks here. However, in comparison with NC Wilmington this season, Drexel has been the better team defensively and they are strong on the boards. Couple all this with home court edge and the line move creating additional value and I just could not stay away from this one! Last season the Dragons season ended because of a CAA conference tourney loss to UNC Wilmington by just 5 points. They also lost the regular season meeting with Philly by just 1 point in double OT! In other words, the Dragons have revenge on their minds here and also I feel this Seahawks team is a step down from last year's UNC Wilmington team and this year's Dragons team is a step up from last season. The numbers will continue to bear that out as the season goes on and I am backing the home team with double revenge here! 10* DREXEL Pick'em -120 |
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01-03-24 | St. Joe's -5.5 v. Rhode Island | Top | 74-78 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #671: CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play St Joseph's Hawks (-) @ Rhode Island Rams @ 7 ET - The Rams started the 2021-22 season with a 12-4 mark. Since then, Rhode Island is 18-41 SU! If you look at their games so far this season their wins have been against weaker foes and St Joe's certainly does not fall into that category! The Hawks are off a huge win by a 41-point margin and have won 7 of last 8 games which included a win over a ranked Villanova team! Also, they took a ranked Kentucky team to OT before losing. This St Joseph's team is very solid this season and this is an absolute bargain line against a still struggling Rams team. Not only is Rhode Island 18-41 SU, they also had lost 5 straight before a win over Northeastern in their most recent game. By the way, 8 of the Rams last 9 losses have been by double digits so the small number here - 5.5 range as of 7 hours before tipoff should not be an issue. 10* ST JOSEPH'S (-) |
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01-02-24 | Illinois-Chicago +4 v. Murray State | Top | 73-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #627: CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Murray State Racers @ 8 ET - Murray State is off a win but they had lost 9 of 10 before that. The Racers traditionally are strong but this does not look like one of their better teams. I like the fact that this line has gone from nearly a pick'em to now Murray State in the -4 range as of about 9 hours before tipoff. We are getting solid line value here because Illinois-Chicago is off B2B losses. The Flames have not 3 straight games all season long. I am looking for a big response here as this team has been ultra competitive this season. The Flames, before the 62-50 loss at Southern Illinois, had gone 7-4 SU last 11 games and the largest margin of defeat was 5 points and the other 3 losses were by 2 or less points. In other words, exceptional value here with the points and we'll grab them! 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO (+) |
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01-01-24 | Texas-Arlington v. Texas OVER 146.5 | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
CBB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Longhorns vs Texas-Arlington Mavericks @ 2 ET - UT Arlington is talented but off an ugly shooting game in which they totaled just 52 points. That sets this one up nice for an over. The Mavericks were averaging 75 ppg this season before the ugly game against North Texas. They will make up for that here but of course they are not going to stop the Longhorns. UT is favored by 18 points in this one for a reason of course. That said, with this total in the 147 range and, if the odds makers are right about the spread, that would put this one at about an 83-65 type game. Given that the Mavs were averaging 75 ppg before the most recent disappointing effort, you can see why we have good value here. Also, the Mavericks recently got Phillip Russell back on the floor and he was a big scorer for SE Missouri each of the last two seasons. Texas will be unstoppable here as they are a strong ranked team but the Mavs are going to hang around in this game for a while too. That sets this up well for plenty of points and the number is 146.5 or 147 as of about 2 hours before tipoff! 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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12-30-23 | USC v. Oregon State +9 | Top | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #704 CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Oregon State Beavers (+) vs USC Trojans @ 10 ET - This line is currently in the 8.5 to 9 range as of about 7 hours before tipoff and there is excellent value here with the underdog. The Beavers have not played as tough of a schedule but they are at home for this game and are coming off a loss but had an 8-3 record prior to that. Also, the Trojans have revenge here from a loss here last season. However, USC enters this game just 4-6 last 10 games and only 3 wins by more than 8 points in their last 10 games! Oregon State won 5 straight games before their tough loss to UCLA in most recent game by 7 points. The Beavers last lost by more than 7 points was back on Thanksgiving weekend! The Beavers have played the Trojans tough in each of the last 3 meetings with an outright win and each of the two losses by 3 or less points. Remember that Oregon State went from an ugly 3-win season to an 11-win season last year to now looking lite a 15-win type team this season. People still remember that Beavers team that went 14-49 the past two seasons combined but they truly are looking much better this season and Corvallis is not an easy place to play. We'll gladly grab the generous points being offered here. 10* OREGON STATE (+) |
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12-29-23 | Arizona v. California OVER 156 | Top | 100-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in California Golden Bears vs Arizona Wildcats @ 10:30 ET - The Wildcats are angry off a double-OT loss prior to Christmas. Arizona is one of the top teams in the country and will respond in a huge way here. However, California is on their home floor and they have scored quite well this season so I would not be surprised to see a strong effort from the Golden Bears in this one. The problem for Cal is they are not strong on the defensive end and the Cats are going to run and gun in this one and leave no doubt after that disappointing double-OT loss. Of course that is why Arizona is favored by double digits on the road in this Pac-12 opener and I expect plenty of scoring and pace to this game. Cal averaging 76 ppg this season but Arizona is averaging 92.5 ppg on the year! Given the line on this game is in the 14 range, certainly 91 to 77 sounds about right and, though I expect much more, a total of 168 is double digits in front of this total which is in the 155.5 to 156.5 range as of about 10 hours before tipoff. Looks like a shootout is on the way here! 10* OVER the total in California |
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12-24-23 | Nevada -6 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 72-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack (-) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 9 ET in Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu, Hawaii - Perfect set up here. The Yellow Jackets blew a huge 20 point 2nd half lead against Hawaii yesterday and barely hung on. That is the kind of game that takes a lot out of a team, especially when it is part of a tournament like this where teams are playing so many games in a short period of time. I look for yesterday's game to be the final good moment for Georgia Tech over in Hawaii as the fresher legs and overall stronger roster belongs to Nevada. The Wolf Pack are coming off a much more comfortable win yesterday as they maintained a big lead for much of the game and cruised to the win over TCU by double digits. The Pack are now 11-1 this season and all 11 wins have been by at least 6 points and that is the number on this game as of about 12 hours before tipoff. 9 of the other 10 Nevada wins have been by double digits. Georgia Tech's last 3 wins have been by an average margin of just 3 points and one of those victories was in OT! In other words, the Jackets have been winning too but not by big margins and there is a lot of value here with a 1-loss team facing a 3-loss team whose 3 losses have, by the way, been by a margin of 17 points on average. Lay the reasonable number here and look for the favorite to roll by double digits in this one. 10* NEVADA (-) |
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12-23-23 | St. John's v. Connecticut OVER 147.5 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
CBB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 147.5 in Connecticut Huskies vs St John's Red Storm @ 8 ET - The Huskies are off a loss but had won 10 of 11 games prior to that. Connecticut will bounce back here and they averaged 88.5 ppg in their 10 victories. Of course UConn expected to win this game as they are a big favorite for a reason in this one. Look at the Huskies as 11 point favorites here and note they average 88 points in their victories. So, the law of averages says this game ends 88-77 and that means totaling 165 points which is way above the 147.5 total currently posted on this game. That said, you are looking at quite a bit of wiggle room on this one in terms of playing the over. Note that the Red Storm do struggle defensively but they do score well. They had one low-scoring game but in their other 10 games this season they scored an average of 83 points per game. I like the odds of this one being an over easy given all of the above. 10* OVER 147.5 in Connecticut |
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12-22-23 | Temple -3.5 v. Old Dominion | Top | 63-78 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #883: Friday CBB 10* Top Play Temple Owls (-) vs Old Dominion Monarchs @ 7:30 ET - Temple will bounce back here in Hawaii - this line 3.5 as of about 6 and 1/2 hours before tipoff - as the Owls take advantage of a struggling Old Dominion team here. The Monarchs have lost 4 straight games and allowed an average of 90 ppg in those 4 defeats! Old Dominion only has two wins in regulation time this season and both were against outclassed foes. The Monarchs certainly do not outclass the Owls! So, in other words, look for their losing skid to continue here. The Owls are off their worst loss of the season to a tough Nevada team but, prior to that defeat, Temple was 6-4 on the season and the average loss was by just 6 points. The Owls have faced a tougher schedule than Old Dominion as well and the Monarchs are just 3-7 SU on the season. So when you factor all this in, this is a solid line value situation to back a short favorite off their worst loss the season. 10* TEMPLE (-) |
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12-21-23 | Boise State +2.5 v. Washington State | Top | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Boise State Broncos (+) vs Washington State @ 11 PM ET at Spokane, WA @ 11 ET - This one is a neutral site game though the location certainly favors the Cougars over the Broncos as Pullman is closer to Spokane than Boise is but the point is this is not a true home game for Washington State. I love the contrarian aspect to this one as Washington State has revenge plus they are the Pac-12 foe facing a Mountain West team so they are the perceived stronger team and want payback for a loss to Boise State early last season. Consider all these aspects and then think about why this line would have opened up in the pick'em range? Exactly...and this line has now even moved up to Washington State as a 2.5 point favorite. Of course most are backing the Cougars given all of the above but the odds makers know that revenge is not always all it is cracked up to be plus the Broncos have played a tougher early season schedule. So when you fact all this in you can see the line value with the underdog in this match-up and I am backing the underdog in this one and we'll grab the bucket though we should not even need the points. 10* BOISE STATE (+) |
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12-20-23 | Villanova +9 v. Creighton | Top | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #685: Wednesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (+) @ Creighton Bluejays @ 9 ET - The Wildcats are only 7-4 SU this season but they have wins over some teams and plus 3 of their 4 losses this season have been by 4 or less points. I feel we have excellent line value here with this one in the 9 to 9.5 point range and I will not hesitate to step in with a solid play on the Wildcats in this one. Villanova also has revenge here as they were knocked out of the Big East tourney by the Bluejays last season. The Wildcats lost their regular season game at Creighton last season as well but that defeat was by just 5 points. There is a lot of value here on Nova because this is still a talented team and they just beat UCLA without Justin Moore. Everyone is stepping up with Moore out of the lineup and that will happen again tonight. Also, the Wildcats have a tendency to play poorly against weaker foes and then be at their best against stronger foes. In other words, you will see their best again tonight. They also have a rest edge with 10 days off since their most recent game. Even though the Bluejays are at home for this one, there could be a lot of students home for the holidays already so they may not have an exactly raucous crowd for this one either. All factors considered (including the fact that Moore is out for this one) has led to a big value with the big underdog here. 10* VILLANOVA (+) |
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12-19-23 | Western Kentucky +5.5 v. California Baptist | Top | 73-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) @ California Baptist Lancers @ 10 ET - The Hilltoppers have won 5 straight games and I like the fact they are averaging 8 steals per game. This WKU team plays opportunistic defense and their confidence is surging with each win. The Toppers can hang tough in this game and they are facing a California Baptist team that has just one win in last 3 games and that win was by just a single point. The Lancers come from a weaker conference and the Toppers are undervalued here the way I see it. An outright upset would not surprise me in the least but certainly there is value in the points here even though the Hilltoppers are on the road for this one. Keep in mind Cal Baptist off tight 1-point win over UC Riverside which is, of course, a city rival of theirs in Riverside so the set up here is even better than most realize. Love this spot for at least a road dog cover in this one. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (+) |
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12-18-23 | Oakland +16.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
Rotation #873 CBB Monday 10* Top Play Oakland Golden Grizzlies (+) @ Michigan State Spartans @ 7 ET - This line in the 16.5 point range as of about 5 hours before tipoff. Spartans off that huge win over the highly-ranked Baylor Bears and it was a blowout win. However, Michigan State shot lights out in that game including a ridiculous 8 of 12 from three point land. That said, we absolutely have some value here with this solid Oakland team catching huge points in a classic little brother versus big brother match-up. Of course the Spartans are the much stronger team but the Golden Grizzlies are loaded with Michigan guys who want this game of course. Last season they did lose by double digits in this match-up but the Spartans were heavily outshot by Oakland in that game and the Golden Grizzlies were done in by poor shooting. That said, there is value here with a big dog that has proven they can compete with stronger teams. The Golden Grizzlies have competed just fine with solid programs like Xavier and also other Big Ten teams like Ohio State and Illinois. This one will likely be decided by single digits and we take advantage of the strange shooting percentages that the Spartans just had in their win over Baylor plus the crazy shooting dynamics of last season's meeting between these teams. 10* OAKLAND (+) |
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12-17-23 | Nevada -120 v. Hawaii | Top | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #749 CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack (-) @ Hawaii Warriors @ 10 ET - The Wolf Pack are as low as a -1 or a -120 on the money line as of about 7 and 1/2 hours before tipoff for this one Sunday. Nevada is the stronger team but this game is at Hawaii and the Warriors have a strong record due to playing a weaker schedule so far this season. This has resulted in line value here. The stronger team that has a tougher schedule is basically available at a pick'em price and I will not hesitate to get involved here. The last time these teams met it was a double digit win for Nevada 6 years ago. Things have changed since then of course and yet this is reflective of the fact that there is a talent gap between these two teams. Hawaii is not too far behind but the Wolf Pack are still the overall better team and I am going to take advantage of the line value being offered in this one as it has dropped from the visitors being a 3 point favorite in this one down to nearly a pick'em. 10* NEVADA (-) |
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12-16-23 | St. Joe's v. Iona OVER 142.5 | Top | 83-58 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #680: CBB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Iona Gaels vs St Joseph's Hawks @ 7 ET - This one in the 142.5 range and St Joe's had one ugly game this season but really has scored very, very well in their other games. They have been consistent with their other games featuring only 1 loss and that was at Kentucky and was a game the Hawks nearly won in regulation before losing in OT. St Joe's has averaged 77.4 ppg in those 9 games! Iona has not been scoring quite as well but the Gaels are generally known for high-scoring games and 7 of first 8 this season totaled at least 140 points. Now off B2B low-scoring games, Iona will join in on a fast-paced non-conference match-up as the Hawks are loaded with scorers and will push the pace here. 10* OVER the total in Iona |
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12-15-23 | Connecticut -4 v. Gonzaga | Top | 76-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
CBB Friday: 10* Top Play Connecticut Huskies (-) @ Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 10 PM ET - The Huskies are the stronger team and have an experience edge and they are so strong in the paint. Connecticut also has enough outside shooting prowess to stretch teams out and that open things up inside the paint as well. Note the Bulldogs lost their only game against a ranked team this season while Connecticut has played 3 ranked foes already and gone 2-1. I feel strongly that the Huskies are better prepared for this intense match-up and that is also why you are seeing them favored by about 4 points here (as of mid-day Friday) even though they are on the road and playing in a tough venue. Lay the points with the road team in this one. 10* CONNECTICUT (-) |
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12-13-23 | Creighton v. UNLV OVER 151.5 | Top | 64-79 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Rotation #639 - CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 151.5 in UNLV Rebels vs Creighton Bluejays @ 9 ET - The Bluejays are huge road favorites here and I feel the big numbers is justified. However, I also feel that the Rebels will score well at home and so you are looking at a match-up that should get well into the 150s. Creighton, other than one game in which they were surprisingly held to just 48 points, has scored extremely well all season. They scored 79 points or more in each of the other 8 games (all wins) and actually averaged 84 ppg in those 8 victories. The Rebels have scored more than 70 points in all but one of their games this season. Of course if they get to at least 70 points here (and on their home floor against an offensive-minded team they should do just that) then notice the line on the Jays is about a -13 and so you are already into the low 150s and that is just looking at the minimum type result here the way I see it and based on all of the above. That is why the reality is you have a game that should get into at least the 160 range. Neither team has played any OT games yet either so the ppg stats are certainly not over-inflated either. Look for a wild one in another non-conference match-up involving teams that have consistently put up solid offensive numbers early this season. 10* OVER 151.5 in UNLV |
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12-12-23 | Oral Roberts v. Texas Tech OVER 143 | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 143 in Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Oral Roberts Golden Eagles @ 9 ET - The Red Raiders have scored well this season with one exception. If you take that one outlier out of the equation, Texas Tech has scored at least 69 points in all the other 7 games. Not including OT points, the Red Raiders averaged 76 points points in those 7 games. Now look at Oral Roberts and they have averaged 76 points per game this season as well. I feel the Golden Eagles are going to hang tough in this game as they have played some tough teams this season and already and held their own. Yet Texas Tech is a large favorite here for a reason and basically if we get Oral Roberts to 65 and the odds makers are right about the -13 here than we are already in the 143 range but I expect Oral Roberts to get into the 70s here and hence the solid value with this total. 10* OVER 143 in Texas Tech |
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12-10-23 | Michigan State -3 v. Nebraska | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #859: CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (-) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 6:30 ET - The Huskers are 7-2 this season plus at home and plus playing with revenge from last season. Yes they are a 3-point dog to a Spartans team that is just 4-4 this season. Big mistake, right? Actually, not at all! The Huskers have played a weaker schedule than the Spartans. Also, Nebraska lost their Big Ten opener to Minnesota despite the Golden Gophers losing their leading scorer to injury early in the game. Yes the Spartans also off a loss to open up Big Ten action but they faced a tough Badgers team and mainly lost that game because Wisconsin was much better from 3-point land than Michigan State. So here we are getting solid line value in this spot as there has been an over-reaction the Spartans mediocre record so far this season. We step in and take advantage of a quality team laying a small number in a bounce back spot. We get the small number because they are on the road and because of a forced adjustment on the line by the marketplace. 10* MICHIGAN STATE (-) |
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12-09-23 | UCLA v. Villanova OVER 127 | Top | 56-65 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
Rotation #711: CBB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 127 in Villanova Wildcats vs UCLA Bruins @ 7 ET - Justin Moore is out for Villanova but sometimes when a solid veteran guard like that is out for a team it can result in more scoring. That's because perhaps the defensive rotations are thrown off a bit. Perhaps the guy coming in is willing to jack up a lot of shots. In this case, Jordan Longino played a lot of minutes against Kansas State because Moore got hurt after playing only 8 minutes in that game. Longino was 5 of 17 from the field including 3 of 9 from three point land. You can see the style he played in that one. I am looking for Nova, now off 3 straight losses, to be very aggressive at home in this one. They may have a more aggressive attacking style in this situation and I feel this low total is offering us exceptional value. The Wildcats are averaging 74 ppg this season. The Bruins are averaging 71 ppg this season. UCLA has scored at least 65 points in every game this season and that includes facing Marquette and Gonzaga and none of the Bruins games have gone to OT this season! Villanova has had two duds on the offensive end in which they scored 57 and 55 points but even eliminating the OT points against Kansas State they reached the 63 mark. Considering the importance of this game I look for a big effort at home but this Wildcats defense is not what it was under Jay Wright. The Wildcats are just not the same level of team but they are quality and they have scorers and the shots are going to start to fall. Take advantage of a total that is too low in the 127 range here in this one. 10* OVER 127 in Villanova |
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12-08-23 | Illinois-Chicago v. Jacksonville State OVER 130.5 | Top | 55-49 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #887: CBB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 130.5 in Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Illinois-Chicago Flames @ 7 ET - As I mentioned in my write-ups earlier this season on UIC, the Flames have been developing well in recent years. They are well-coached and now the coach has been able to assemble the type of roster he wants here. It has been a process for sure but this Flames team looks stronger this season than they have been in a long time. Now Illinois-Chicago is coming off B2B losses in which they did not score well and this is the perfect spot for an over. I am sure that UIC is going to push the pace here as their 5-game winning streak saw them average 83 ppg while their 2-game losing streak has seen them allow just 63 ppg but also score only 60 ppg. That is not working for the Flames. They will resume with an up-tempo attack here plus I expect better shooting against a Gamecocks team that has played a rather weak schedule. I do like the fact that Jacksonville State is at home in this one and they had scored 71 ppg in a 3-game winning streak prior to losing their most recent game. So both teams off losses, both teams had been hot recently and scoring well, and now we have a rather low total to work with here. I look for a solid over here as both teams should get into the upper 60s here if not into the 70s! 10* OVER 130.5 in Jacksonville State |
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12-07-23 | Iowa v. Iowa State OVER 153 | Top | 65-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
CBB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Iowa State Cyclones vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 7:30 ET - This is a rivalry game and a revenge match-up for Iowa State as they got hammered at Iowa last season due to poor shooting while the Hawkeyes shot lights out in that one. Look for a strong push from the Cyclones here as they look to get payback for that one. This should lead to a very high-scoring game as Iowa is scoring very well this season but also giving up huge points. Iowa has allowed 80 ppg last 6 games but also is scoring an average of 88 ppg on the year! Iowa State is scoring 83 ppg this season. I realize the Cyclones have a solid number in terms of points allowed but as their schedule has toughened up, they have now allowed 78 ppg last 3 games. This one should fly over the total and I like the drop here as it gone from nearly 160 to the low 150s as of about 6 hours before tipoff! 10* OVER the total in Iowa State |
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12-06-23 | San Francisco v. Vanderbilt OVER 138 | Top | 73-60 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Rotation #709: CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Vanderbilt Commodores vs San Francisco Dons @ 8 ET - This total has dropped a little from its opener and is in the 138 range as of early gameday morning. Vanderbilt is off a 78-59 win but against a much weaker foe and, keep in mind, this followed 6 straight Commodores games topping more than 140 points! San Francisco is off a 72-61 loss but this followed averaging 80 ppg in their first 7 games. Even if you eliminate that first huge win of the season when the faced a completely overmatched foe, the Dons had scored at least 70 points in 4 of last 5 games prior to the low-scoring loss at Arizona State. Based on all of the above and what we have seen from these teams so far this season, I just can not see this one ending with anything less than 70 points for each team! The Dons have shot well overall this season and I know the Commodores will get their shooting percentages back up soon and they can build off scoring 78 points in their most recent game even though it was against a weaker foe. Take advantage of the line value here as neither club is particularly strong on defense either. 10* OVER the total in Vanderbilt |
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12-05-23 | Villanova v. Kansas State OVER 142.5 | Top | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #613: CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas State Wildcats vs Villanova Wildcats @ 7 ET - Villanova has too many good shooters to continue struggling from outside. Their outside shots, particularly threes, will start to fall with much more regularity. Don't be surprised if that starts here as Kansas State, not including OT points, has allowed 70 ppg this season. Here they face a very talented Nova team that has underachieved so far. In other words, Kansas State very likely to give up more than their season average in this one. Villanova had been scoring decently this season before that ugly low-scoring loss to Drexel. Villanova's block and steal numbers are not good this season and this shows the level of defensive play has dropped. Kansas State has not been great on the defensive end either but, not including OT points, is averaging scoring in the upper 70s this season. I am looking for both clubs, per the above, to get into the 70s here and that means excellent value with this one in the 142.5 range as about 5 and 1/2 hours before tipoff. 10* OVER the total in Kansas State |
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12-04-23 | Cal Poly v. Oregon State OVER 132 | Top | 63-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 132 in Oregon State Beavers vs Cal Poly Mustangs @ 10 ET - This total dropped from mid-130s and is offering excellent line value. Cal Poly average games are in the 145 range so far and Oregon State games are in the low 140s so far this season. Look for this one to get past the low 130s as the Beavers are off a 71-59 win but this was preceded by allowing an average of 83 ppg last 3 games! The Mustangs have allowed 67 points or more last 4 games and that trend certainly will continue here as they face a Pac-12 foe in this one. They are a 14 point dog for a reason. Of course, if Cal Poly just gets to 60 and odds makers are right about this line, it gets to the mid-130s. I like our chances! The Mustangs averaging nearly 70 per game this season. 10* OVER 132 in Oregon State |
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12-03-23 | Minnesota v. Ohio State OVER 140.5 | Top | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Rotation #847: CBB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 140.5 in Ohio State Buckeyes vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 6:30 ET - This total has come down some from its opener and I am grabbing the value on the other side of the line move. The Buckeyes are 6-1 this season and the Golden Gophers are 5-2 this season and neither team has been involved in any OT games. Now look at their point totals and note that they each have averaged in the 145 point range. Now consider that Minny has won 2 of 3 and scored at least 86 points in each win and the Buckeyes last 3 wins in their 5 game winning streak have seen them total at least 86 points in each game. Granted this is a Big Ten opener for each team and defensive intensity might pick up some but both teams are playing well in the offensive end and playing with a lot of confidence. The point is that we have some healthy wiggle room with this total when you consider that each team is averaging 80 ppg this season. Don't be surprised if each team gets into the 70s here. 10* OVER 140.5 in Ohio State |
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12-02-23 | St. Joe's v. Temple OVER 147.5 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #715: CBB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 147.5 in Temple Owls vs St Joseph's Hawks @ 7:30 ET - The type of games each of these teams if off of entering this Big 5 match-up make it the perfect spot for an over. The Owls off a triple-OT win over fellow Philly foe LaSalle. St Joe's off the huge upset win over Villanova in their Big 5 match-up. That sets this one up well for plenty of points. Keep in mind it was not the triple-OT that forced Temple's game over. It did have a good pace in regulation. As for St Joe's, they have been scoring well and that is even with recent games against Villanova and Kentucky. This one projects to get into the 150s the way these teams have been going and of course both of them comfortable playing here in Philly. Look of another exciting high-scoring battle between two teams not afraid to play at a brisk pace. 10* OVER 147.5 in Temple |
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12-01-23 | St. Mary's v. Boise State OVER 129.5 | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boise State Broncos vs St Mary's Gaels @ 10:30 ET - This total in the 129.5 range. The Broncos and Gaels average around 70 points per game this season but I can see why this total is lower than that. The fact is that each have been involved in some low-scoring grinders this season but I like the value here on this lower total in this game played in Idaho Falls. The fact is that St Mary's has faced some tough defensive-minded competition. The Broncos are just not on the same level as those teams St Mary's struggled to score against and I expect things to open up here. Boise State definitely has the edge here in terms of this game being played in their home state and they were scoring an average of 72 points per game their first 5 games prior to a low-scoring loss to Butler. Look for them to bounce back in the offensive end after scoring just 56 against the Bulldogs. The Gaels are also off a loss and will bounce back and they have their confidence back in the offensive end after averaging 80 points last two games! More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Boise State |
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11-30-23 | Illinois State v. Illinois-Chicago -5.5 | Top | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #752: CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (-) vs Illinois State Redbirds @ 8 ET - As I mentioned in Sunday's write-up on UIC - an underdog cover as they lost by just one point - the Flames have been developing well in recent years. They are well-coached and now the coach has been able to assemble the type of roster he wants here. It has been a process for sure but this Flames team looks stronger this season than they have been in a long time. Now Illinois-Chicago is 5-2 on the season and with Illinois State, this is not the right kind of team roster to take advantage of the Flames guard-heavy style. This is an MVC opener for these teams and the Flames will fare well in this match-up. I like laying a very reasonable number of points in this one with a team that is undefeated at home and hosting a team that has lost 3 in a row in games played away from home. Note that UIC is hitting 48% from the field this season and the Redbirds are hitting just 39% from the field. Also, the Flames are averaging much higher blocked shots numbers. This is no surprise as, in this match-up too, UIC has some height and length edges in guard play as well. Illinois-Chicago lost the most recent meeting between these teams in a game played at Illinois State and that was in OT last season. This will be payback at home and they bounce back from a 1-point loss. Keep in mind the Flames only other loss this season was to Cincinnati! Lay it! Illinois-Chicago (+) |
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11-29-23 | La Salle v. Temple OVER 142.5 | Top | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #657 CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Temple Owls vs La Salle Explorers @ 7 ET - This is part of the Philly Big 5 tourney and I love the fact that this total has gone from the upper 140s to the low 140s. The current number is in the 143 range as of early game day morning. The Explorers and Owls both play at a decent pace. Both shoot a lot of threes. Both are comfortable, of course, playing here in Philly. La Salle is the road team here but it is no big deal as Fran Dunphy just got his 600th career win and the Explorers coach was the head coach here at Temple for many years too. I like the fact that LaSalle has seen 4 different leading scorers in its last 5 games. It shows you they do not have to rely on just one guy. The Explorers have averaged 75 ppg in the 5 wins in their 5-1 start to the season and they even scored 66 in their loss to DUKE! La Salle should score very well here but I am on crazy about their defensive capabilities. Though the Owls rely more heavily on their top scorer Hysier Miller. They have other solid scoring options too and will make their way through this defense without a problem, especially with confidence in their own arena! The Owls have been held below 73 points just once this season and are allowing 70 ppg but averaging 75. This one should get into the 150s given all of the above and so I do feel we have solid line value in a game that should be back and forth and reach at least the 150 mark. These guys push hard in this Philly Big 5 games and I expect exciting game here! 10* OVER the total in Temple |
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11-28-23 | NC State +2 v. Ole Miss | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #629 CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play NC State Wolfpack (+) @ Ole Miss Rebels @ 9 ET - The Wolfpack are a 2 or 2.5 dog in this one as of about 11 hours before tipoff. This line actually opened with NC State as a small favorite in some spots. I love fading line moves like this. First off, Ole Miss is undefeated. Secondly, the Rebels are at home. Thirdly, the line is moving toward the undefeated home team on their home floor. I will grab the dog often in spots like this and particularly when are 1-loss team is coming off that very first loss of the season. The Wolfpack are a solid team loaded with upperclassmen. This is part of the ACC/SEC annual battle and I like the fact the Rebels last 3 wins have all come by slim margins - an average margin of victory of just 1.7 points - and now they face the toughest test yet! This will be the toughest team they have faced and the Wolfpack not in a good mood coming off that loss. Give me the motivated ACC dog that won nearly TWICE as many games as Ole Miss last season! 10* NC State (+) |
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11-27-23 | Utah v. St. Mary's OVER 133.5 | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Rotation #867: CBB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 133.5 in St Mary's Gaels vs Utah Utes @ 11 PM ET - The Gaels are off an 89-55 win and will carry momentum after scoring big on their home floor. The Utes continue to score big early this season but have not been great on the defensive end so I am expecting plenty of scoring here. Utah is off a game in which they scored 82 points but lost as they gave up 91 to St John's. However, they also faced a tough Houston team, known for defense, and they managed to score 66 points in that loss. They are averaging 82 points per game this season but have allowed 71 per game. All their games have totaled at least 135 points and the Gaels have scored well in 2 of their 3 home games and enter this one with confidence after a hot shooting effort. That carries over into this one plus the Utes continue their high-scoring style. 10* OVER 133.5 in St Mary's |
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11-26-23 | Illinois-Chicago +3.5 v. NC-Greensboro | Top | 57-58 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #751: CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) vs UNC Greensboro Spartans @ 7 ET -As I mentioned in yesterday's write-up on UIC, the Flames were off a blowout win Friday so they were able to rest guys and only 2 guys exceeded 27 minutes and neither one of those topped the 31 minute mark. UIC is well-coached and now the coach has been able to assemble the type of roster he wants here. It has been process for sure but this Flames team looks stronger this season than they have been in a long time. Now Illinois-Chicago is 5-1 on the season and that was a solid George Washington team they beat yesterday. Now they face UNC Greensboro. The Spartans are 4-1 on the season and have looked strong but they have hit a very high percentage of 3's recently and now face tough tourney situation in that it is a B2B2B and the hot shooting fades. Couple that with the fact they've been giving up too many offensive boards and this is not the right kind of team to take advantage of the Flames guard-heavy style. The Flames will fare well in this match-up and I like having the sizable points in this one. Also UIC has some height and length edges in guard play as well. Grab the points! Illinois-Chicago (+) |
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11-25-23 | Illinois-Chicago -118 v. George Washington | Top | 89-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #655: CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames Pick -115 vs George Washington Revolutionaries @ 7 ET - GW is off a double-OT game and that will be tough on them here in this tourney being played in the Bahamas. Also, while they had 4 guys top the 40 minute mark and 1 total 34 minutes, the Flames are off a blowout win so they were able to rest guys and only 2 guys exceeded 27 minutes and neither one of those topped the 31 minute mark. UIC is well-coached and now the coach has been able to assemble the type of roster he wants here. It has been process for sure but this Flames team looks stronger this season than they have been in a long time. There is a reason the 4-1 team is a small favorite over the 5-0 undefeated George Washington team. Don't let the line fool you. Lay it! Illinois-Chicago -115 |
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11-24-23 | Seton Hall +1.5 v. Iowa | Top | 72-85 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play Seton Hall (+) vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 6 ET - Iowa might rate as a slightly better overall team and Seton Hall is only +1 or +1.5 as of about 5 hours before tipoff. However, the better defense belongs to the Pirates. Iowa certainly has some key seniors too but the overall rotation for Seton Hall is loaded with seniors. They are coming off their first loss off the season. Conversely the Hawkeyes have lost 2 of 3 games now. They are a very good team and score well but they are not good on the defensive end. That said, the defensive edges for the Pirates and the fact this is a veteran-laden team early in the season coming off their first loss has me siding with the small dog here. 10* SETON HALL (+) |
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11-22-23 | Ole Miss v. Temple OVER 137 | Top | 77-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #677: CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Temple Owls vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 3:30 ET - This total is in the 137 range as of early gameday morning. Based on the tempo with which these teams play as well as the situation here, I fully expect 140s as an end result. Temple is coming off a 78-73 loss to Columbia after starting the season a perfect 3-0. The Owls had an off shooting performance but played with plenty of tempo and they are now averaging 75 points per game this season. Yes, Ole Miss is an SEC team and they have started this season 4-0 but they are coming off a down season and of course the power of SEC basketball is nothing like it has been in SEC football on the national landscape. Of course that is why the spread is a very small one with Rebels a light road favorite here. Look for this one to be tight late too which helps lead to late fouling, quick three point shots and "scramble points" if you will. I am expecting a back and forth battle played at a good tempo as Ole Miss is averaging 71 points per game this season but also has allowed upper 60s in each of last two games. This will be a tough test facing the Owls in Philly with Temple coming off a loss. The Owls have plenty of scorers and I expect a much better scoring performance here after the horrific shooting against Columbia. Keep in mind, the Owls still scored 73 points despite that tough shooting. Here they will force the tempo and note that Ole Miss has shown they are willing to play fast too. 10* OVER the total in Temple |
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11-21-23 | La Salle v. Duke OVER 144 | Top | 66-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 143.5 or 144 in La Salle Explorers at Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET - Duke just crushed another PA team (Bucknell) 90 to 60. Now the Blue Devils face a Philly team, La Salle, that recently beat that same Bucknell team. The point is that if Bucknell can shoot only 37% from the field and still put up 60 points on Duke, than you know that La Salle should be able to top that! The fact is the Explorers are 4-0 this season but, of course, a heavy dog to Duke with good reason. La Salle will not be able to slow down a Blue Devils team that is piling up big point totals this season under new head coach Jon Scheyer but, at the same time, the Explorers enter this game with some added confidence on the offensive end. When you start a season 4-0 and averaging 73.5 ppg you'll have some confidence. The fact is they should get into the 65 range here given all of the above but then note that Duke is favored by around 27 points for a reason. That is why I am projecting a 90 to 65 type game here that puts us double digits in front of this total so we'll take it! 10* OVER 143.5 or 144 in Duke |
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11-20-23 | St. Joe's v. Kentucky OVER 150.5 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Rotation #821: CBB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kentucky Wildcats vs St Joseph's Hawks @ 7 ET - This total in the 150.5 range as of early game day morning. St Joe's is coming off an ugly 57-54 loss in which they trailed all the way. Longtime followers know I love totals with bigger numbers when a team is coming off a game like that. This Hawks team has talent and is coming off an ugly, ugly game. That will bring out a solid scoring effort here after they were so "off" with their shooting in the defeat. However, now they face a Kentucky program that - as per usual - is one of the best in the country this season. The Wildcats will run all over this St Joe's team. Now look at the numbers here. UK is about a 16 point favorite. They have averaged 88 ppg so far this season. If the Cats hit 88 and win by 16 that puts St Joe's at 72. That puts this game at 160. I feel we have solid value with the over here because the emphasis for the Hawks will be better production on offense here but, at the same time, they will not be able to slow down this uber talented Wildcats team. With this game at Rupp Arena in Lexington, the Cats might again erupt for 100 like they just did in most recent game. 10* OVER the total in Kentucky |
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11-19-23 | Dayton v. Houston OVER 127.5 | Top | 55-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Cougars vs Dayton Flyers @ 8:30 ET in Charleston, SC - We get a low total in the 128 range to work with here because the Cougars are known for defense. However, they also had played some weaker scoring teams early this season and then Utah showed them what a stronger scoring team is capable of doing against them. That said, now Dayton faces Houston for the Championship game of this tourney. The Flyers are a solid scoring team too and, though tourney Championship games can be grinders, I do not think Dayton wants to allow this game to play out at that type of pace. The Cougars are a young team in terms of new faces and so this roster is still evolving a bit in terms of their style and the Flyers are going to force the issue here. This one will play out at a solid pace and we are not asking for much to get this into the 130s. Note that the Flyers are averaging 72 points per game but have allowed 73 ppg last 3 games. The Cougars offense has been solid scoring 77 ppg but they just allowed 66 points to the Utes at the other end. We should see 130s here. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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11-17-23 | Maryland v. Villanova -6 | Top | 40-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Maryland Terrapins @ 8:30 ET - The Wildcats are in a great bounce back spot after that embarrassing loss to Penn. They had won their first two games this season and can't wait to get back on the floor after the loss to the Quakers. As for the Terrapins, they are off B2B losses. They have not looked good early this season and now they face an angry team that was ranked heading into that loss to Pennsylvania. The Cats had a huge edge in shots from the field in that game but had an ugly performance. They will bounce back big here on their home floor and take this one by double digits the way I see it and this line is currently in the -6 range. 10* Villanova (-) |
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11-16-23 | Houston v. Towson OVER 124 | Top | 65-49 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
CBB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Towson Tigers vs Houston Cougars @ 6:30 ET in Charleston, SC - This total is as low as a 124 as of mid-day. The Cougars have averaged 82 ppg so far this season. Why would they score less than 80 here? They are one of the top teams in the country and can cause Towson all kinds of trouble in this one. Of course that is why they are favored by about 20 points in this one. But that puts this game at 80-60 range which is well above the 124 total. Even if we see 75-55 that gets the job done here. The fact is Towson is averaging 64 points so far. I know that, with much tougher competition here, they do not get to that range but at least mid-50s is reasonable and I am expecting a solid over here as a result. The fresh legs of the Cougars and depth of this team could easily get this one well into the 130s. 10* OVER the total in Towson |
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11-15-23 | Rice v. Texas UNDER 157 | Top | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #702: CBB Wednesday UNDER the total in Texas Longhorns vs Rice Owls @ 9 ET - This total is just too high. It is because Rice put up some big points in their first two games but now the Owls face a Horns team that has held each of their first two opponents under 60 points. Note that the Owls are facing a Texas team that will be fully focused here since they have a Louisville team on deck that had a horrible season last year. That game is at Madison Square Garden too so UT does have a road trip on deck. Here at home they play a strong defensive game and they are about a 20 point favorite in this one. If they again hold another opponent in the 60 range, that puts this game in the 80-60 range and that means it falls well below the 157 that is the current number posted on this game. Last year's meeting was high-scoring but because of OT and that was after a 72-72 score in regulation and UT learned their lesson from letting the Owls hang around in that one. They will turn up the heat on defense in this one! UNDER the total in Texas |
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11-14-23 | Stonehill v. St. Joe's OVER 140.5 | Top | 56-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #306525 Tuesday CBB 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Joe's Hawks vs Stonehill Skyhawks @ 7 ET - This total is in the 141 range as of very early gameday morning and I feel that will prove to be far too low in this one. Stonehill is now in the Northeast Conference in Division 1 basketball for just its 2nd season after being a Division II program. They just got hammered by UConn and even though the Huskies are defending champs, the fact is the Skyhawks could do nothing to stop them. They tried to switch to a zone defense and that still did not help in the 107 to 67 loss. I like the fact that they scored 67 points and Stonehill has seen their scoring tick upward in each game thus far. However, they have now allowed 98 points per game in their two losses and St Joseph's will be ready to run and gun in this one! The Hawks only have Texas A & M Commerce on deck so certainly they are fully focused here and they just put up 69 points on a Penn team that just shocked everyone by getting an upset win over Villanova last night and holding the Wildcats to 72 points. The point is that these Hawks roughly equaled the Nova point-scoring against the Quakers. St Joe's should certainly get 80+ here given all of the above. They have solid guard play plus too much size inside and they will dominate. But the Skyhawks will continue their improved scoring trending and this line is around an 18. I am projecting an 85-67 type game which put this one double digits about the current number in the 141 range. 10* OVER the total in St Joe's |
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11-13-23 | Villanova -11.5 v. Pennsylvania | Top | 72-76 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Monday CBB 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) @ Pennsylvania Quakers @ 7 ET - As mentioned in my play on St Joe's against the Quakers Friday, I know Penn began the season with a strong start but they had played a weak schedule. They are still dealing with a roster featuring a lot of guys playing their first college basketball. Sure enough, despite managing a surprising in-game 19-2 run, the Quakers still fell short and also failed to cover as we cashed in with the Hawks Friday. As for Monday's opponents for Penn, the Wildcats are laying about a dozen points in this spot but should roll big here. They are, of course, the most talented team in the Philly Big 5 and they looked strong so far even though they faced some weaker competition as they simply managed each game and they turned it on when they needed to. Since they are the more veteran team, they will have an advantage if this game is tight at halftime and they will pull away in the 2nd half. They know how to close out games like this and have the depth to give the Quakers trouble all game long if it is tighter than expected early in the 2nd half. However, I am expecting a rather comfortable win here as this is an important Big 5 game in Philly. Last season the Wildcats won this meeting only 70-59 but over 2/3 of the points for the Quakers came from two guys who are not here anymore. That includes star Jordan Dingle who is now with Syracuse. This is a transition season for Penn and they will struggle against a Nova team that is again a Top 25 team in the country this season. The line is around 11.5 as of early gameday morning and I expect a rout in this one. 10* VILLANOVA (-) |
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11-12-23 | Nevada +5 v. Washington | Top | 83-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack (+) @ Washington Huskies @ 10 ET - Classic case of line value based on the Mountain West school taking on the big, bad Big 12 school. In this case, when you compare these two rosters and all the aspects of these two teams, I would rate the Wolf Pack with an edge. We are getting 5 points with the better team. Of course it is because this game is in Seattle so of course some value being assigned to Washington for this makes sense. However, this line has moved into the +5 range and it is just too much. I sense and upset here with a road team from the smaller school with strong talent and a solid roster. 10* NEVADA |
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11-11-23 | New Mexico State +9 v. Cal-Irvine | Top | 74-91 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Rotation #661: CBB Saturday New Mexico State Aggies (+) @ Cal-Irvine Anteaters @ 10 ET - This line is all the way up to a +9 as of about Noon ET gameday and this is too much value for the underdog. Everyone remembers the Aggies getting hammered by 40 in their opener against Kentucky but they were outclassed there just like Sul Ross State was outclassed when they were the next opponent for New Mexico State and the Aggies rolled by 35 points. The fact is many will remember the UK demolition and that is why this line is so high. Cal-Irvine is off a strong season but they shot just 2 of 12 from three point land in their season opener and lost. I don't expect the Anteaters to be as strong this season and shooting like that from deep for a Big West team is not going to lead to many wins by a double digit margin against a respectable foe. The Aggies can hang tough in this one and they certainly are focused on a much stronger effort after the debacle at Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY to open up their season. 10* NEW MEXICO STATE + points |
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11-10-23 | Pennsylvania v. St. Joe's -6 | Top | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Friday CBB 10* Top Play St Joe's Hawks (-) vs Pennsylvania Quakers @ 6:30 ET - I know Penn is off to a strong start but they have played a weak schedule. They are still loaded with a roster featuring a lot of guys playing their first college basketball. The Hawks are laying about a half dozen points in this spot and should roll big here. They return the core of last season's team and looked strong in their opener as they turned it on when they needed to. This will be 3rd game in 5 days for Penn while the Hawks have been off since Monday. Also, since they are the more veteran team, they will have an advantage if this game is tight late and they will pull away. However, I am expecting a rather comfortable win here as this is an important Big 5 game in Philly. Last season the Hawks won this meeting by 5 and it took OT. However, this season St Joe's looks stronger than last year while Penn is going to have some growing pains early on working new guys in. That has not showed yet because they faced opponents that were overmatched but it will show up now against a tough Hawks team. 10* ST JOE'S (-) |
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11-09-23 | Fairfield v. Rhode Island OVER 141.5 | Top | 80-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
CBB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Rhode Island Rams vs Fairfield Stags @ 7 ET - Two teams working in a lot of new players and, as their first games showed, both teams willing to run and gun and throw caution to the wind. Fairfield is a MAAC school and that conference is known for higher scoring. As Rhode Island, they are off a disappointing campaign and have a re-tooled roster and, of course, they are a big favorite with good reason as the A-10 team should take care of business here. However, the Stags will push them for sure and this game should have a great tempo and end up near the 150 mark. With a current total in the 141.5 range, this one gets my best bet status for Thursday. Fairfield lost their first game 89-70 and the Rams won their first game 81-70. Look for this one to get into the 150s as well. 10* OVER the total in Rhode Island |
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11-08-23 | Bucknell +14 v. Pennsylvania | Top | 61-80 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Rotation #306531: CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Bucknell Bison + @ Pennsylvania Quakers @ 7 ET - The Quakers are off a big win but faced a completely overmatched opponent. They also have a Philly Big 5 match-up on deck with facing St Joe's on Friday. That said, even if Penn gets up big here they might start resting guys with a bigger game on deck Friday! However, don't be surprised if Bucknell gives them a lot of trouble and keeps this one in single digits throughout. The Quakers have a lot of new faces and are lacking in guys with collegiate experience. The Bison lost some guys from last season's team but still returned a good core group of guys from last season. Certainly the Quakers are the stronger team from the Ivy League as the Bison are in the Patriot League. However, this is an intriguing match-up because Bucknell got into foul trouble against Delaware and that led to a blowout loss but I like the hustle and effort I saw from the Bison in that one and this rather short road trip down to the Philly area will do them some good after the ugly home loss in their season opener. The late morning line is in the 13.5 to 14 point range and is offering great big dog value. 10* BUCKNELL + |
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11-07-23 | Drexel -2.5 v. La Salle | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons (-) @ La Salle Explorers @ 6:30 ET - The Big 5 or the City 6? Well it is still called the Big 5 in Philly but now Drexel has been added to the mix along with La Salle and Temple and St Joseph's and Penn and, of course Villanova. All these Philly schools battle it out every year for superiority and, trust me, it means something to these teams. This year there will even be a new tournament that takes place in early December involving the Big 5 schools which, again, are now 6 with Drexel added. That said, what a great time for the Dragons to be added. This team continues to get stronger and they look great heading into this season with most of the core group, nearly everyone returning from last season. They will be playing extremely hard in this one because of the first Philly 5 aspect of it but also because of their fallen teammate who passed away in August. You are going to see an incredible effort here from a gritty and hard-working team that is a cohesive group and well-coached and is part of a program that is continuing to grow. The Dragons are going to make some noise this season. As for La Salle, their coach Fran Dunphy is a legend in these parts and the 75 year old will have his team playing better as the season goes on but the Explorers lost too much to be a solid team right out of the gate. Look for some early struggles for LaSalle this season but look for the Dragons to be ready to rock from the opening tip here. We have to lay about 2.5 points here but I truly expect a dominating win for the team that returns a lot more of its core group than its opponent in this one. 10* DREXEL (-) |
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11-06-23 | Lafayette v. St. Joe's -14 | Top | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Rotation #305014: College Hoops: Monday 10* Top Play St Joe's Hawks (-) vs Lafayette Leopards @ 7 ET - The Leopards have a new coach and they also lost 3 of the 6 guys that had the most minutes on the floor when these guys met last season and the Leopards rallied after being down double digits at the half. In that game Lafayette was down by 10 at the half but ended up making a game of it in the 63-59 loss. That will not happen again this season as St Joe's is absolutely stacked this season. They return 3 strong backcourt players in Reynolds, Greer and Brown. They also bring back a 7-footer in Fleming and also brought in another one in Essandoko. The latter has already been fantastic both offensively and defensively in preseason action. He is ready and the Hawks will make a statement here. They are deep so they can stay up big througout. They are healthy and they do not want a scare like they had last season so they will keep the pedal to the metal in this one. St Joe's has a coach here for his 5th year and he went from 11 wins two years ago to 16 wins last season and this looks like his best team yet. The Leopards have a new coach and are in a bit of a rebuild now and they are from the weaker Patriot League while the Hawks reside in the tough Atlantic Ten. Lafayette also has a big road trip out west with UCLA and Pepperdine up next. St Joseph's is home for the first two weeks of the season and I see them starting out strong and blowing the Leopards away in this one. The line at 14, as of early game day morning, is absolutely a bargain here. 10* ST JOE'S (-) |
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04-03-23 | San Diego State +7.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
NCAA Monday San Diego State Aztecs +7.5 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 9:20 ET - We have two chances to win this. That is the beauty of playing dogs in spread sports. One way of course is the outright upset but the other is just that if the dog falls short of the upset you can still get the all-important cover. The key here is we are getting 7.5 points which is a sizable amount. If a game is very tight late and then there is late fouling, etc. you will rarely see the final margin climb to 8 or more. That said, I really like our chances here because I do feel this game is going to be tight late and a great finish. I know Connecticut has been so hot and winning by huge margins and that this is, therefore, a contrarian play. But the fact is San Diego State has won 32 of 38 games this season and the final 5 of those 6 losses have ALL been by a single digit margin! The way I see it, the Aztecs are in this game all the way and fully capable of pulling off the shocker. Happy to grab the generous offering of points here. SAN DIEGO STATE +7.5 |
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04-01-23 | Miami-FL +5.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
NCAA Saturday Top Play Miami Hurricanes +5.5 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 8:49 ET - The Huskies have been on a tear. Of course the Hurricanes have too or they would not be here. However, what I mean by a tear is that UConn has not just been winning, they have been dominating teams. That has led to very solid line value here as Connecticut is now overvalued. It is only natural that the Huskies would end up over-priced here after all their big wins. The Huskies have won their 4 games by an average of 22.5 points. Now they face a Hurricanes team that has not only won 29 of 36 games this season, the last 4 regular season defeats they had all came by a margin of 3 or less points and and average margin of defeat of only 2 points. We get great value here and I will not pass this up. The Canes are hot enough and scoring well enough that no team's defense is going to stop them in their tracks right now. They are so well-coached and have a never say die attitude they have displayed so many times that I just can not see them coming up short here. If they do, look for it to be by the slimmest of margins. The Hurricanes have scored 82 ppg during their current 13-2 run. Now think of how blistering hot the Huskies have been but realize they have averaged 79 ppg last 12 games. All you hear anyone talking about is UConn but you can see why the data and the value both are in support of a very strong play here on a Canes team that is flying under the radar in my opinion. Top Play MIAMI +5.5 |
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04-01-23 | Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State -2.5 | Top | 71-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
NCAA Saturday San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 6:09 ET - The Aztecs have twice as many losses as the Owls. However, San Diego State is favored for a reason here. The defense of the Aztecs is the difference here. They have won 8 straight games and allowed only 56 points per game during this stretch. The Owls have won 11 straight games and allowed 65 ppg in their last 9 wins. As you can see, 65 ppg allowed is solid but is not 56 either! Hats off to FAU on a fantastic season but they are the lowest seed team left in the tourney and this is a bargain price on a tough Mountain West team that faces a much tougher regular season schedule than this Conference USA foe. SAN DIEGO STATE -2.5 |
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03-30-23 | UAB v. North Texas +2 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
NIT Thursday North Texas Mean Green +2 vs UAB Blazers @ 9:30 ET - Mean Green 30-7 this season and have allowed 55 points or less in regulation time 8 of last 9 games. The Blazers beat North Texas in the C-USA Tourney after UNT took both regular season meetings. That said, the perfect revenge for the Mean Green would be getting the NIT Championship win over UAB. The Blazers also playing solid defense and are known for that but they have allowed an average of 67 points in regulation time of their last 8 games. As mentioned in my write-up for the match-up with Wisconsin in the semi-finals, this North Texas team is loaded with confidence and the set-up here is perfect for revenge with confidence never higher after the way the Mean Green closed out the win over the Badgers with dominant 2nd half play. UAB is a solid team for sure, of course, but look for the Mean Green to ride their stifling defense on the way to winning the NIT Championship Game Thursday as Blazers also had a little extra taken out of them with their win over Utah Valley State requiring OT Tuesday. Keep that in mind too...the Mean Green had to beat a solid Big Ten team to get here while UAB faced Utah Valley State. NORTH TEXAS +2 |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB OVER 151 | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NIT Tuesday Top Play OVER 151 in UAB Blazers vs Utah Valley Wolverines @ 9:30 ET - The Wolverines have allowed 69 points or less in 7 of last 8 games. So how can this total be set so high? Exactly! One of the keys is that Utah Valley has averaged scoring 84 ppg last 7 games. But another key is their most recent game. The Wolverines allowed only 68 points but Cincinnati actually had 79 shots from the field! The only reason the Bearcats did got into the 80s or even 90s in points is because they shot 34% overall and 24% from beyond the arc! Similarly, the Blazers are off a game in which they allowed only 59 points but Vanderbilt had 75 shots from the field! The problem for Vandy was they made only 33% from the field and just 26% from 3-point land. Also, the Commodores scored only ONE point from the free throw line the entire game. NONE of these stats are likely to be repeated here and I expect an absolute shootout here with plenty of back and forth quick buckets. UAB averaging 81 ppg this season and Utah Valley 77 and I am expecting, for the reasons note above, this one gets well into the 150s after both defenses were fortunate in terms of points allowed in their most recent game and both these teams very confident in the offensive end and full of scorers! Top Play OVER 151 in UAB |
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03-28-23 | Wisconsin v. North Texas -1.5 | Top | 54-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
NIT Tuesday North Texas -1.5 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 7 ET - Mean Green 29-7 this season and allowed 55 points or less in regulation time 7 of last 8 games. The Badgers also playing solid defense and are known for that but they have allowed an average of 65 points in regulation time of their last 7 games. Also, lets not forget Wisconsin had lost 12 of 18 games entering this tournament. Certainly Wisconsin has played the tougher schedule but this North Texas team is loaded with confidence and favored here for a reason. The odds makers are sharp and they have a CUSA team that faced a weaker schedule favored over the Big Ten team for a reason. Look for the Mean Green to ride their stifling defense on the way to punching their ticket to the NIT Championship Game Thursday. NORTH TEXAS -1.5 |
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL +4 v. Texas | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
NCAA Sunday Miami Hurricanes +4 vs Texas Longhorns @ 5:05 ET - The Longhorns faced a pair of double digit seeds and then things toughened with a match-up against a #3 seed, Xavier. Even without their big man Dylan Disu (he could only go 2 minutes), the Horns prevailed. So how did they do it? Well some other guys stepped up but the real key was UT hitting 52.5 percent overall and 58.3% from three point land! Shooting percentages like that are tough to beat BUT also tough to repeat! The Longhorns will likely again be without Disu here and, against a scrappy Hurricanes team getting strong veteran leadership and strong play too, this could be the end for Texas. I am grabbing the points just in case but I am expecting the outright upset here. Even if Disu plays he is not 100% and this Canes team is playing with a lot of confidence and looks very complete and also is very well-coached. Miami is a high-quality team that is peaking at the right time and just beat a #4 seed and a #1 seed and got each win by double digits! This Hurricanes team is starting to believe and I know they, like Texas, had hot shooting in their most recent win BUT the key here is they are really healthy AND they are catching 4 points here. I do not think we'll need those points but we'll take them just in case but I am expecting an upset here. MIAMI +4 |
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03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State +2.5 | Top | 56-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
NCAA Sunday San Diego State Aztecs +2.5 vs Creighton Bluejays @ 2:20 ET - Why is Creighton favored over higher-seeded San Diego State here and an Aztecs team that has half as many losses? Well, the Bluejays have looked very good and so the odds makers and betting markets have reacted to that. This got me to look closer at this match-up and the fact is Creighton deserves credit of course but they have beaten two double digit seeds to get here and then what about the other win? Baylor was the impressive win but note that the Jays went 22 for 22 from the line and the Bears got to the line nearly as many times but only made 13. Also, Creighton shot 11 of 24 from beyond the arc while Baylor took nearly just as many but made only 5 of them. So when you consider all the facts here, the Bluejays did win that game by 9 points but they outscored the Bears by 27 points at the line and beyond the arc simply because of some extremely good shooting numbers that were outliers in my opinion. I feel this is giving us value here and I feel San Diego State will be able to slow down Creighton. Keep in mind, the Aztecs also had the good fortune of facing a couple of double digit seeds but then they faced top-seeded Alabama and won that game despite shooting poorly from everywhere. From the field overall, from 3-point land, at the free throw line...all the numbers were ugly for San Diego State at the offensive end. But they can win ugly again here as this team knows how to D up and grind out wins. Good value with the points. SAN DIEGO STATE +2.5 |
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03-25-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga +2.5 | Top | 82-54 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
NCAA Saturday Top Play Gonzaga Bulldogs +2.5 vs Connecticut Huskies @ 8:49 ET - The Huskies embarrassed Arkansas (and me) on Thursday as my big play was on the Razorbacks then. But what really happened? Give credit to Connecticut for sure but if you look at the box score, you'll see some keys that have led to value here. The Huskies actually had 17 turnovers compared to just 10 for Arky. Also, UConn had 9 LESS shots from the field than Arkansas! The key was the Huskies shot a ridiculous 57% from the field compared to Razorbacks shooting an equally ridiculous 32% from the field! That included Huskies outscoring the Hogs by 12 points from beyond the arc. I also like the fact that Arkansas had 6 more free throws than the Huskies. The point is that the box score says a lot about how that game played out as it has some interesting statistical anomalies and now we get a little extra value here with a very tough and resilient and battle-tested and well-coached Gonzaga team. Facing TCU and UCLA were very tough tests for Gonzaga and help them here as Huskies certainly had the easier draw with St Mary's and Arkansas last 2 games. Bulldogs hammered St Mary's by 26 in the WCC Championship Game earlier this month. Although certainly respect is given to head coach Dan Hurley of UConn, Mark Few of the Bulldogs has long been known one of, if not the, best one currently coaching college basketball. Don't be surprised if that is a key element in crunch time as this game plays out. Top Play GONZAGA +2.5 |
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03-25-23 | Florida Atlantic +2 v. Kansas State | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
NCAA Saturday Florida Atlantic Owls +2 vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 6:09 ET - The Owls are a #9 seed and catching just a bucket here against a Wildcats team that is from the Big 12 and seeded #3 too. Long-time followers know I am a contrarian and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing Florida Atlantic here. Everyone will be lining up on Kansas State thinking this is a trap line, etc. but look for the Cats to get upset in this one. FAU has plenty of confidence after outscoring Tennessee 40-28 in the 2nd half of their game Thursday. Kansas State blew 7 point leads multiple times in the 2nd half of their win over Michigan State. They ultimately got the win in overtime but the Wildcats could be a little more susceptible here after the way all that played out with an inability to hold on to leads as that game went on. FLORIDA ATLANTIC +2 |
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03-24-23 | Xavier +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 71-83 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Xavier Musketeers +4.5 vs Texas Longhorns @ 9:45 ET - As I mentioned in fading the Longhorns with Penn State +5.5 last weekend, "Texas is playing great and deserves all the accolades they are getting for sure. I have been riding with the Longhorns quite often this season. However, this is a much tougher match-up for them. They go from facing a #15 seed in Colgate to facing a tough Big Ten team that just knocked off a solid SEC team in impressive fashion. Penn State did not just beat the Aggies Thursday, they dominated in that game from mid-first period on." Now UT faces a tough Big East team in the form of Xavier. After UConn trashed cold-shooting Arkansas yesterday, the Big East could have 3 teams in the Elite 8 if they upset Texas here and if Creighton knocks off Princeton tonight as well. The point is that the Big East was very tough this season. I know the Big 12 was certainly very strong this season too but if Kansas State did not win in OT yesterday and if UT did get upset here, they would have no one in the Elite 8 while Big East would have 3 of the 8 teams (barring major upset with Princeton tonight). Note that 6 of 9 Musketeers losses this season have been by 4 or less points. They won both games this season with Connecticut including one by a margin of 10 plus they beat Creighton by more than 20 in one of their meetings with them. The Longhorns last 24 games have featured only 10 Texas wins by more than 5 points. I like are chances here in going against the higher seed here and feel Xavier has the perfect underdog mindset entering this one. All the pressure on Texas here and I feel it catches up with them in this one. XAVIER +4.5 |
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03-24-23 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Houston | Top | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Miami Hurricanes +7.5 vs Houston Cougars @ 7:15 ET - I have plenty of respect for Houston as the Cougars are a rock solid team that is among the best in the nation this season. However, I expect the points to prove to be too much here. As I noted in my play on Miami over Indiana in the 2nd round: "I look for the Hurricanes defense to help lead the way to an upset here and to be the difference-maker in this one. Miami had to turn up the heat on defense to get past Drake in the first round. The Bulldogs are a solid team and it was impressive and a big confidence booster that the Canes were down 7 at one point in 2nd half and rallied but then fell behind by 8 and again had to rally! The Hurricanes outscored Drake by 16-1 to close out the game and I like the leadership, poise and defensive intensity seen from the Canes in that one. Keep in mind, losses for the Canes have been few and far between this season and, prior to losing in the ACC tourney to Duke, the Hurricanes 4 losses in the 12-4 stretch leading into that game were by an average margin of just 2 points! Given that fact, though I expect the upset here, we'll grab the couple points just in case!" So the point is, there is a lot to like about how this Hurricanes team has been playing such competitive basketball for such a long period of time. Yes they may fall short of the upset this time as, of course, Houston is better than Indiana. However, we do not need an upset to cash our ticket here. Grab the points in this one! MIAMI +7.5 |