Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #308 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 6:40 ET - there can be two theories as to why this line is dropping to a 2.5 on gameday morning, one would be that the Buccaneers are attracting some attention and primed for an upset, however the other theory is the one I am going with which I believe will prove true in this case, I believe the sharps are setting this one up by knocking it down a little to get that 2.5 everywhere and then they will pound it and we'll see this game at a -3 again before too long and certainly at kickoff, I could be wrong of course but we'll see and either way I like New Orleans a ton here, the Saints have owned the Buccaneers in recent meetings and also all the pressure is on Tom Brady and Tampa Bay here, that is because so much is expected of them and Brady wants to atone for a horrific performance the last time the Bucs were in TB, all that pressure is not going to help the Buccaneers and this is a team that went 1-4 in games against teams with a winning record this season, keep in mind TB lost to NO twice plus lost to KC and the Rams and another loss to a playoff team was to the Bears, though the Saints were not overly impressive last week the Bucs were arguably much worse, Tampa Bay should have annihilated Washington last week but struggled to put them away and I am just not sold on this TB team as they were facing a Washington team that had a ton of issues and question marks for that game, also the Saints defense has allowed 16 points or less in 7 of last 10 games while the Bucs have allowed 23 points or more in 8 of last 10 game, I will gladly lay the short home price here, 10* NEW ORLEANS

Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 3:05 ET - the Browns just blew out a division rival nemesis when they crushed the Steelers last week, that was a turnover fueled win for Cleveland, one has to give them credit for that win for sure but they face a much tougher test here, Kansas City is coached by Andy Reid and they are coming off a bye week, in his career Reid's teams have thrived off bye week as they have gone 20-9 ATS and have won 24 of the 29 games SU, undoubtedly the Chiefs will be ready to go and they are the healthier too, the Browns have issues impacting their secondary and their offensive line, those are two areas you particularly don't want to be struggling in when facing these defending Super Bowl champs, the Browns are allowing 30.4 points per game on the road this season while the Chiefs have allowed 20 points or less in 5 of their last 7 meaningful home games, in other words the season finale that didn't matter does not count in those numbers, in fact that also means that KC has effectively been off for a full two weeks in terms of bye weeks and they will really be ready here both physically and mentally, in the Browns last 5 games against playoff teams they have allowed 35.8 points per game, look for a home blowout here, 8* KANSAS CITY

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #303 Saturday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Buffalo Bills @ 8:15 ET - The Colts last weekend were the first team ever to have over 450 yards of offense in a game with zero turnovers and still lose the game. Teams with those stats had been 11-0. In other words, the Bills got lucky...very lucky! Now their luck runs out this week. While I absolutely respect Buffalo QB Josh Allen and all this offense has done, there is simply no comparison between these defenses. The Ravens have the much better defense. Also, in terms of the Baltimore offense, a running QB like Lamar Jackson gives a defense like the Bills have absolute nightmares. The Bills have allowed 21 points or more in 6 of their last 8 home games. The Ravens have allowed 19 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. In fact, Baltimore allowed an average of 13 points in those 6 games. Buffalo allowed an average of 27 points per game in those aforementioned 6 home games. I know the full season numbers make the defenses look comparable but I feel strongly they are not. Also, the Ravens had to battle with the Steelers and the Browns in their division while the Bills took advantage of a weaker division. Of course the Jets were garbage, the Patriots ended with a losing record, and the Dolphins (despite a winning record) were pretenders whose full season stats told the full story. Off the fortunate win last week, Buffalo's luck runs out this week and the Ravens advance to the AFC Championship Game. 10* BALTIMORE

Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Saturday 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 4:35 ET - Jared Goff has had a little more time to heal his thumb. The Rams also have their run game going strong. Additionally, you are talking about what might be the best defense in the league. They just held a strong Seahawks team to 11 first downs and Seattle QB Russell Wilson to 11 of 27 with his passing. The Packers offense certainly presents a tougher challenge but the Rams defense will be up to the task. At the same time, the Green Bay defense is susceptible to strong ground games and I like what Los Angeles has been doing on that side of the ball in recent games. The Packers are just 3-3 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Rams, including playoffs, are 11-6 SU this season and only 3 of those 17 games was a loss by more than a 3 point margin for LA. In other words, great value with the big points here in my opinion. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #152 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 8:15 ET - Following the money is not something I often do but there are exceptions. In this case, Pittsburgh is getting a lot of attention from the betting markets but rightfully so. Not only are the Steelers the much better defense, the Browns are dealing with a number of key issues. Cleveland has injury issues and has had covid issues which has impacted their preparation for this game plus forced guys out and has even forced their head coach out. That means the Browns interim head coach on the sideline will be their special teams coordinator. That makes for a very tall mountain to climb when you consider the Steelers wealth of playoff experience at head coach and as a team. Keep in mind, Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh are playoff warriors while Browns QB Baker Mayfield will be making his first ever playoff start. Cleveland's pass defense is allowing 288 yards per game when on the road this season. Pittsburgh's pass defense is allowing just 104 yards per game this season. The Browns will turn to their ground game to try and take some pressure off Mayfield here but the Steelers allowed just 93 rushing yards per game when at home. Cleveland went 1-5 ATS this season when on the road and facing teams not in the NFC East...in other words, teams with a pulse! Pittsburgh went 5-2 ATS in their final 7 home games this season. The Steelers have a long history of dominating the Browns when they face them at Heinz Field and that continues here. 10* PITTSBURGH

Wild Card Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #147 Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) Tennessee Titans @ 1:05 ET - Revenge can be overplayed for sure but when the situation is "just right" it certainly can be a major factor. This is one of those cases. Not only did the Ravens lose to the Titans in the post-season last year, they also lost again in the regular season this year. Also, though they lost to Tennessee in the playoffs a year ago, Baltimore actually significantly outgained the Titans in that game but turnovers were the difference. Now you can't (or shouldn't) just blindly play games because of a revenge angle. But in this case, other factors line up which lead to the value. The Ravens have the much better defense in this match-up as they allow only 18.9 points per game. Also, Baltimore went 6-2 on the road this season. Tennessee has allowed 33.3 points per game their last 3 home games and also lost 3 of their last 5 home games this season. The Titans truly don't show a big home field edge and also struggled against stronger teams including losses to the Steelers, Browns, Packers and Colts. The road team is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings between these teams and that trend continues here. The Titans defense, in my opinion, simply can not be trusted here. The Ravens allowed 19 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Tennessee allowed 38 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. 10* BALTIMORE

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #145 Saturday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-) @ Washington @ 8:15 ET - While it may seem tough to lay more than a TD on the road in a playoff game you'll feel better about it after you read a few things here. First off, the Buccaneers went 6-2 on the road this season plus they have a great run defense and a fantastic passing attack. Secondly, they are taking on a Washington team that went 4-2 against their own division which is the NFC East which could easily be re-named the NFC Least based on how things went this season. The team that almost beat them for the division was the New York Giants and Washington lost both games with them. In other words, this is not a very good football team and one of their other wins was against a Bengals team that went 4-11-1 this season. Additionally, another win was against the 49ers but Washington was outgained by over 150 yards in that game and fortunate to win. Unlike Washington, Tampa Bay has plenty of quality wins on their resume this season and plus the Bucs only played one game (Giants) against an NFC East foe. That said, the Buccaneers absolutely played the tougher schedule of these teams. Also, although Alex Smith is back at QB for Washington he is not 100 percent. As for TB's Mike Evans he is listed as questionable but has progressed very well this week and has no ligament damage so the top wide receiver should be very ready to go here for this one. Washington went just 2-5 SU in their final 7 home games this season and one of those wins was against the 4-11-1 Bengals! The home edge for Washington is simply not there and Tampa Bay traveled very well this season. Also, the Buccaneers average margin of victory was 17.4 points per game in their 11 wins this season. Washington scored an average of 15 points per game in their 5 home losses this season and the Bucs averaged 31 points per game this season. You can see why I am expecting TB to win this game by at least a two TD margin here. Lay it! 10* TAMPA BAY

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #141 Saturday 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Buffalo Bills @ 1:05 ET - The Colts are very well coached and catching nearly a touchdown in this one. I know the Bills finished the season hot but Indianapolis is solid defensively. Also, the Bills faced some weak competition during their 6-game winning streak to close out the season. Don't get me wrong, Buffalo is certainly a very solid team, I am just saying that we have solid line value here with a very live dog in my opinion. The Colts went 5-2 SU/ATS in their final 7 road games of the season. Indianapolis also closed the season quite strong especially when you consider they dealt with some injury and covid-related issues over the final 5 weeks of the season. That is helping to give us some line value here in this one as is the fact the Colts blew a huge lead and lost to the Steelers a few weeks ago while Buffalo is off a big blowout win over Miami in the season finale. It all adds up to getting some additional line value with a road dog that travels well and plays solid defense plus has a future hall of famer, Rivers, at QB. Again, I like the coaching factor here too as I am impressed with Frank Reich and feel he could be an X-factor in this one too. The offensive mind of his trying to outsmart Bills head coach Sean McDermott who is a former defensive coordinator. Let the games begin, literally, and the dog takes the NFL Wild Card weekend opener - or at least takes the money in this one! 8* INDIANAPOLIS

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #102 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Washington @ 8:20 ET - This line is simply an over-reaction to the fact the Redskins need to win and the fact that the Eagles looked like garbage at Dallas last week. Head coach Doug Pederson is supposedly staying with the team but a meeting is scheduled for Tuesday. However, defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is contemplating retirement and, at the very least, going to take a year off from the game in his estimation. Either way, Philadelphia is likely to now give more of an effort than you would have otherwise anticipated here. Yes it is a rivalry game and, yes, the Eagles can play the role of spoiler. However, the Eagles might have "mailed it in" were it not for the coaching situation noted above. Additionally, Philly is continuing to develop rookie QB Jalen Hurts and would like to close the season with a win. The fact we're getting 4 points here, after this line opened up around a pick'em, means even more value with the home dog in this one and Philly does tend to play better at home. The Eagles are 3-1 SU in their last 4 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Washington expected to have QB Alex Smith for this one but he is not 100% healthy and, overall, Washington is 2-4 ATS in true road games this season (7th game was on a neutral field). All the pressure is on the road team and the relaxed home team with nothing to lose is also catching sizable points in this one. The situation is too good to pass up on as an outright upset actually is quite likely here given the circumstances but grab the points for added insurance. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #103 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4:25 ET - The Colts had a huge lead last week and still lost the game. Granted that game was against the Steelers and not a 1-14 Jacksonville team but, still, the point is that Indianapolis is likely to keep their foot on the gas for the full 60 minutes. That should mean a ton of points  here because the Jaguars have allowed an average of 31 points this season and there is nothing "average" about this situation either. The Colts also have revenge from losing their season opener at Jacksonville. So there are multiple reasons to believe that Indy is going to certainly score better than the average that Jax allows. Also, the Colts are about a 14 point favorite here so you're talking about a 35-21 or 38-24 type game here. I could see Jacksonville scoring some points here in garbage time too and they won't be able to run on the Indy D so they'll be airing out all game long! What do they have to lose? Nothing as the Jags have already locked up the #1 pick in the draft and so they may as well air out in this one and let the chips fall where they may. That means a lot more points than many are expecting here and this one should get well into the 50s, if not 60s. 10* OVER the total in Indianapolis

Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #131 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (-) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian so it would make perfect sense that I would have a contrarian play as my Game of the Year. The fact is that the Rams are on a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS run in games against the Cardinals. So my play in this all important must-win game is, of course, on Arizona and laying the points even though Los Angeles has had the upper hand in this series with Sean McVay as head coach. The key here is not only that Rams QB Jared Goff is out with a broken thumb and John Wolford will be making his first ever NFL start. It is also that the Rams are without other numerous starters and key players for this one. That means QB Kyler Murray and the Cardinals should have the upper hand (finally!) in this match-up and I look for Arizona to pull away as this one goes on. They are off a disappointing loss to the 49ers but the Cardinals entered that game off back to back victories and will respond here with a big win. They got themselves back into the playoff race and now want to make sure their divisional nemesis does not get into the post-season plus Arizona themselves can get in with a win here and a Chicago loss. So there is plenty at stake in this game and the Cardinals are the much healthier team and the Rams enter this one off back to back losses and have truly let their season sleep away and they know it. This will be tough for Los Angeles to bounce back from and they are short-handed here plus dealing with covid issues. It all adds up to a blowout win for the road favorite in this one. The Cardinals Murray will have a huge game and I know this may seem like a very contrarian play but the road team is favored for a reason over a team they have lost to 7 straight times. That streak ends here in convincing fashion. Lay the small number. 10* ARIZONA

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #108 Sunday 8* New York Giants (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Did the Cowboys beat the Eagles last week or was it more that the Eagles beat themselves? It truly was more the latter than the former and I feel Dallas is being vastly over-valued in this spot. This game still matters to the Giants. With a win here and an Eagles home win over the Redskins tonight, New York is in the playoffs as the NFC East divisional champs. Dallas is favored on the road here but this is a team that was 1-5 SU and ATS in road games this season before destroying a Cincinnati team that was a mess when they faced them. I am well aware the Giants have lost 3 straight games but they also faced 3 tough teams that all have a winning record and are currently a combined 28-17 on the season. Prior to this tough stretch, New York had won 4 straight games SU and also was on a 7-2 ATS run. With all that is at stake here I look for a huge game from the home dog in this one. 8* NEW YORK GIANTS

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #482 Monday 10* Top Play New England Patriots (+) vs Buffalo Bills @ 8:15 ET - The Bills clinched the AFC East last week while the Patriots clinched missing the post-season! This is not the norm of course and certainly fits the bill as a role reversal. That said, New England is likely to be very motivated for this game. This is particularly true because Cam Newton's fumble in the red zone at Buffalo cost the Pats a chance to win the game in the first meeting this season. You know that coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots badly want this rematch while one could certainly question the motivation of the Bills here after clinching the division last week. I am well aware of the fact that Newton has struggled badly this season and that Buffalo definitely has the better offense in this match-up. However, I do expect Newton and the Pats to bring their A game in this one as they get a shot at the team that has dethroned them at the top of their division and they get that shot in a Monday Night game at home in Foxboro, MA. Note that the Patriots do hold the defensive edge in this match-up and that they are 4-2 SU at home this season. One of those home losses came by just 6 points and the line on this game is +7 plus New England's home wins include victories over Miami and Baltimore and those teams are each 10-5 on the season! The Patriots are fully capable of winning this game outright and the fact we are getting a full TD here thanks to the betting markets is simply tremendous added value in this spot. I expect the home dog to put up a helluva fight in this one and the Pats are 6-0 ATS the last 6 times they have been a host underdog. Also, the Patriots had won 9 of last 10 against Bills before the tough 3-point loss at Buffalo earlier this season. Payback time. 10* NEW ENGLAND

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #480 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (-) vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:20 ET - The Titans have a lot of pressure on them. Yes they are 10-4 on the season and tied for the top spot in the AFC South but they may not even make the playoffs! They haven't even clinched a post-season spot yet! That said, the playoff pressure absolutely could get to them here. As for the Packers, they sit at a sweet 11-3 on the season and have already locked up the NFC North. Yes, Green Bay still has incentive to win as they would love to lock up home field edge for the post-season but the pressure they feel is very minute compared to what the Titans are feeling here. Considering that as well as the Packers being the much better team defensively and having the home field edge here and the fact the line has gone from a -5 on GB to just a -3, yes I am backing the host in this one in a big way! Green Bay is on a 9-4 ATS run in games against AFC opponents. The Packers are allowing only 337.8 yards per game which ranks their defense in the top 25% of the league. Conversely, the Titans are allowing nearly 400 yards per game and they rank in the bottom third of the NFL defensively. Tennessee's most recent road game was against a very bad Jacksonville team but, prior to that, the Titans allowed an average of 28 points per game in 4 preceding road games. The Packers enter this game on a 4-game winning streak and have won 6 of their last 7 games overall and have allowed only 19.7 points per game in those 6 victories. The Packers defense doesn't get a lot of respect but they have been better than many realize and, as for QB Aaron Rodgers and this GB offense, they will have a huge day against the porous defense of the Titans. That sets this one up well for an absolute home blowout. 8* GREEN BAY

Rivalry Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - It seems crazy but the Eagles, even with a 4-9-1 record, are still alive in the race for the NFC East. That's because they play Washington next week. If the Eagles win this game and Washington and the Giants (at Ravens) lose today, then the Eagles control their own destiny. That said, there will be no quit in the Eagles today as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive. Of course, the Cowboys are still alive too but their back to back wins are very deceiving. They beat a very bad Bengals team when Cincinnati was still adjusting to life without Joe Burrow at QB. Then, last week's win over San Francisco was quite deceiving. The 49ers held Dallas under 300 yards of offense and the Cowboys had just 15 first downs in the game but won it thanks to turnovers. They now face an Eagles team that is off a loss at Arizona which was also an ATS loss for most as they were a 6.5 point dog for most in that game. That is noteworthy here as, since a rough ATS start to the season way back in September, the Eagles have had back to back ATS losses only once. They have been scoring more points with Hurts at QB instead of Wentz and he accounted for over 400 yards of offense plus 4 total TDs in the loss to the Cardinals last week. While the Cowboys have allowed 28 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games, the Eagles had allowed an average of only 22 points per game their last 7 games before the loss at Arizona. The Philly D will dominate the game here against a Cowboys offense that has endured a lot of struggles including in divisional action. In fact, Dallas is just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in divisional action this season. Look for the Cowboys to drop to 0-5 ATS in divisional games this season as the Eagles bounce back from last week's loss with hopes still alive for being in the driver's seat for the NFC East division next week. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #469 Sunday 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ Washington @ 4:05 ET - Typical contrarian play for me here. The Panthers have lost 8 of their last 9 games and yet are only a 1 point dog here against a Washington team that is trying to lock up the NFC East division and has won 4 of their last 5 games SU and 5 in a row ATS. Of course I am on Carolina in a contrarian spot like this and will fade Washington. The big issue for the host here is that QB Alex Smith is hurt and might miss this game. If he plays he won't be near 100 percent and if he doesn't play it means we're seeing Dwayne Haskins under center and he has struggled. I like the fact that Carolina, though struggling to get SU wins, has been very scrappy. The Panthers are still playing hard and they are hungry for a victory and they would love to play the role of spoiler. Adding up all those factors plus being the healthier team (Washington also without top WR Terry McLaurin for this one), Carolina is the play in this one. The Panthers are on a 5-1 ATS run as a road dog and also outgained the Packers in their loss at Green Bay last week. Additionally, Carolina has revenge from losing to Washington each of the past two seasons despite the Panthers having more first downs in each game. Payback time here as they play the role of spoiler on the road Sunday. 8* CAROLINA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #462 Saturday NFL 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (+) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - The Dolphins are off a huge win versus the Patriots last week. Not only does that make this a potential flat spot for Miami, note also that the Dolphins were only 2-2 SU in their 4 preceding games. Also, those two wins came against the Jets and Bengals. Those teams have a combined 4-23-1 record on the season. I know the Dolphins have some solid numbers on defense this season but they are still fortunate to be 11-3 this season as they have a weak offense and also have played a much weaker schedule than the Raiders. That said, I love having Las Vegas as a home dog in this match-up. Plus, Carr is expected back at QB for this one and note that Mariota did play well in relief of Carr last week and is a dual-threat QB. Either way, I expect this talented Raiders offense to put a lot of pressure on the Dolphins. That said, Miami's anemic offense will struggle to keep up in this game. Miami is averaging just 313 yards in road games this season while the Raiders are averaging 386 yards in home games this season. Las Vegas has scored 27 points or more in 6 of its last 7 games while the Dolphins have not scored more than 27 points in any of their last 5 games. From a situational standpoint, with Miami off a huge divisional win and the Raiders off back to back home losses, this one sets up perfectly for a big top play on the home team. Grab the home dog in this one. 10* LAS VEGAS

Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #459 Saturday 8* San Francisco 49ers (+) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 4:30 ET - Keep in mind, the 49ers have already been playing their "home" games at this venue in Arizona due to covid-related restrictions imposed in California. That said, this isn't much of a "road" game for the Niners and I love the fact that they are a sizable dog here despite the fact they deserved much better than what they got at Dallas last  week. That loss to the Cowboys was despite a huge yardage edge of 167 yards and is helping to give us line value this week. Keep in mind, the Cardinals are off a key win over the Eagles last week and could fall flat here. The 49ers will be up for facing a divisional foe and with the ability to play the role of spoiler and note that Arizona is just 2-6 ATS the last 8 times they have been a home favorite. The Niners have covered 7 of their last 10 road games. Look for those trends to continue here. 8* SAN FRANCISCO

Christmas Day Special - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #452 Friday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 4:30 ET - The Viking season effectively came to an end last week with their home loss to the Bears. That defeat eliminated Minnesota from post-season contention. As for the Saints, they are off a loss last week but it came against the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs. Not only that, New Orleans now has Drew Brees back under center but they also are trying to hold off the Buccaneers for the NFC South division title. That said, coming off back to back losses but at home and highly motivated, I fully expect a blowout win for the Saints in this one. New Orleans has the much better defense in this match-up plus they catch a Minnesota team that could be flat after their disappointing result last week ended their playoff hopes for this season. Given the emotional letdown for the Vikings as well as considering their struggles on defense, Minnesota can be expected to drop to 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they have been a road dog. As for the Saints, they had won 9 straight games SU and 5 in a row ATS before this two game skid against the Eagles and Chiefs. With their leader, Brees, back in the fold you will see a very determined New Orleans team in this one and they will keep the hammer down all game long. 4 of the Vikings losses this season have come by at least 9 points and this one will too. Remember the Saints have revenge too from the playoff loss to the Vikings in OT last season! Also, 4 of the last 5 wins for NO have come by a margin of at least 2 TD's. Look for another huge margin victory in this one. Lay it! 10* NEW ORLEANS 

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #370 Monday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - The Bengals lost to the Cowboys last week but actually held the yardage edge in that game. Also, Pittsburgh is off back to back losses and will be happy just to win this game which means the victory will not necessarily come in blowout fashion! The Steelers have a tough home with the surging Colts on deck so they will leave a little in the tank for that one coming up on Sunday. As for facing Cincinnati, this is simply a "game management" type game for Pittsburgh in my opinion. Just grind out a win, don't make big mistakes, stay healthy, and move forward to bigger and better things. For the Bengals, it is anything but that. This is Cincinnati's chance to get a big primetime upset win over a division rival. Of course I am not saying that will happen as I certainly don't expect an outright win. But I do feel that the spread of 14.5 on this game is too much. I am looking for a loss in the 7 to 10 point range. The Steelers are actually on an ugly 0-5 ATS run as a road favorite in divisional action. Also, the Bengals have covered 6 of the last 8 times they have been a divisional home dog. Prior to the loss to the Cowboys (ugly defeat but yardage edge for Cincinnati), the Bengals were on a 4-0 ATS run in home games. Note that the Steelers enter this game on an 0-3 ATS run. Look for this one to be a bit ugly and for it to remain a much closer game than many are expecting as the home team goes all out in this rare primetime game as a host. 10* CINCINNATI

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #361 Sunday 8* Cleveland Browns (-) @ New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The Giants, especially without QB Daniel Jones (expected to be out again) just do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with this red hot Browns offense. That is why I am willing to lay the points here with Cleveland on the road. I just don't see the Giants scoring enough to hang around in this game. Granted, the New York defense has some great numbers on the season and I do respect their D. But they also have been helped by facing a lot of weak and struggling offenses including those of their fellow NFC East counterparts. That said, facing a Browns team that put up over 40 points in back to back weeks and has averaged 33 points their last 4 games presents an entirely different level of challenge to the New York defense. Also, the Giants are allowing 25 points per game in home games this season so they actually have been better away from home. I know the Browns defense has some scary bad numbers but the New York offense is really hurting without a healthy Jones under center. And Colt McCoy? Sorry but he has never been a quality NFL quarterback and especially now in his mid-30s and with little playing time in recent years he is even less of a back-up than he use to be in his prime. So here you have a Giants offense that has averaged 14 points per game their last 3 games and that doesn't many weapons and lost their best one, RB Barkley, early this season. New York faces a Cleveland team that is off a loss and hasn't lost back to back games this entire season. The Browns are clearly on a mission this season and the better team pulls away as this game goes on. Lay it! 8* CLEVELAND

Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #363 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - The NFC East is still up for grabs. Certainly the Eagles have put themselves in a hole but the win over the Saints last week with Hurts now in at QB has breathed life into the Eagles. If the Redskins - about a TD dog to Seattle - lose in early action Sunday then Philadelphia could move to within a 1/2 game of first place in the NFC East and, keep in mind, they face the Redskins in the final game of the regular season. In other words, at least at this point in time, the Eagles still have life courtesy of the win over New Orleans last week. Now Philly takes on an Arizona team that is off a win but that victory was preceded by a 1-4 SU run and 0-5 ATS run. In other words, the Cardinals have been struggling badly and the Eagles are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games. They can remain competitive in this game even if they ultimately fall short. Philadelphia, before an ugly loss to Tampa Bay, had seen 3 of their 4 prior losses come by a margin of 6 or less points. This one will fall into that category too or could even be an outright Philly win. Why? Well the Cardinals are allowing 29.5 points per game when at home this season and simply can't be trusted here. Before Arizona's win over a Giants team with a punchless offense, the Cards allowed 31 points per game their preceding 6 games. The Eagles enter this game having allowed an average of 22 points per game their last 7 games. Also, Philly has positive energy again after the win over the Saints. That will show up on the field here this week as Arizona drops to 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they have been a home favorite. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #352 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - A lot of nice angles for the Falcons in this one. Though it did take OT for Atlanta to win the most recent meeting they did hold a 28-14 first down edge in that game at Tampa Bay. Also, the Buccaneers are off a win but that was preceded by losing 3 of 4 games. The Falcons are off back to back losses but that was preceded by a solid 4-2 SU/ATS stretch. In other words, lets not be too quick to judge just based on last week's results and note too that the Bucs were actually outgained in their win over the Vikings last week. Atlanta has covered 6 of the last 8 times they have been a home dog in divisional action and this line is moving to as high as a +7 for this one! Plus their interim head coach, Morris, use to be a head coach for TB about a decade ago but then was fired after only a couple seasons. You know this one means a little extra for him! The Falcons lost on a field goal as time expired at LA against the Chargers last week but now they can regroup at home where they haven't lost a game by more than 7 points since their season opener! Excellent home dog value here as Tom Brady and the Bucs continue to be over-rated. 8* ATLANTA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #344 Saturday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (-) vs Carolina Panthers @ 8:15 ET - The Panthers have been successful as a road dog but they also have been fortunate. They have forced 2 turnovers per game on the road this season. That is unlikely to happen against these Packers as they have turned the ball over just 3 times in 6 home games this season! Also, Carolina has nothing to play for now. Up until last week they still had some hope of maybe making a run. But the loss to Denver guarantees a losing season and guarantees that the Panthers are going nowhere this season. That is tough for a football team when reality sets in and so Carolina goes on the road right after finding out their season is officially finished. Green Bay wins this game as they are 5-1 SU at home this season but of course the all important question is whether or not they cover. I feel strongly they will because I expect a very disinterested effort from the Panthers here and note Green Bay so often wins big. 4 of their 5 home wins this season have come by a margin of 14 or more points! The last time that Carolina faced a strong team they were at home against Tampa Bay and got blasted by 23 points! Since then they have faced nothing but teams with a losing record and I now look for them to struggle against a Packers team that is still playing hard for home field edge in the NFC. Their 10-3 record has them tied with the Saints for top spot in the conference. Green Bay caught a break when New Orleans was knocked off by the lowly Eagles in a big upset. That good break has brought even more positive energy to a Packers locker-room that has already been surging with momentum thanks to three straight wins and victories in 5 of their last 6 games. These two teams will prove to be at opposite ends of the motivation spectrum for this game and that means Lambeau Field turns into Blowout City for the home team when the final whistle sounds on this one. Lay it! 10* GREEN BAY

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:20 ET - Look for a back and forth shootout here. Not only are the Raiders dealing with injuries on defense, the Chargers passing attack is averaging 270 yards per game this season and threw for 312 yards in their first meeting with Las Vegas this season. This is a revenge game for LA as they lost the first meeting despite a yardage edge of 120 yards. The reason I am on the over here is because I just don't trust the Chargers defense enough against a Las Vegas team that has averaged 267 passing yards and 29 points in their home games this season. I know the Chargers have some solid defensive numbers on the season but their road games have included facing weak offenses such as Cincinnati, Denver, and Miami. Also, in their 5 most recent road games Los Angeles has allowed 31 points per game. As for the Raiders defense, they have had one strong showing at home (against Denver) but have been throttled in their other 5 home games to the tune of 35.6 points per game. The Chargers most recent road game resulted in an under but, prior to that, it was a streak of 4 straight overs in Chargers away games! As for Las Vegas, only 1 of their 6 home games has resulted in an under. This is a big total posted on this game but don't let that big number scare you away. Both teams should move the ball well here as the Chargers offense also is looking a little healthier for this game and I have no doubts about the Raiders potent attack on offense at home but their defensive injuries will hurt them (literally) in this one as well. 10* OVER the total in Las Vegas

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #179 Monday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (-) @ Cleveland Browns @ 8:15 ET - This is a contrarian play and, as long-time followers know, going contrarian is something I often do in the NFL. The fact is that the Browns are 2 games in front of the Ravens in the standings plus they are at home where they are 5-1 on the season. Also, Cleveland has revenge from getting hammered at Baltimore in their season opener. Additionally the Browns have the rest edge here since they have been playing Sunday games for weeks on end whereas the Ravens had the recent scheduling problems with their game against the Steelers. As a result, Baltimore will be playing for the 3rd time in a span of 13 days when they take the field tonight. However, considering all of the above, when the markets look at this game they will wonder how in the world it can be that it is the Ravens who are favored by a field goal on the road in this one? My response to that is...exactly! In other words, don't be fooled by the line here or the situation. The odds makers are telling you all you need to know here and that is that Baltimore is the better team and favored for a reason. I like the fact that they have allowed a total of just 36 points their last two games whereas the Browns allowed 35 points at Tennessee last week and 25 at Jacksonville the week before. Also, I like the fact that other than the win over Titans and a win over the Colts, the Browns other 7 wins have come against 6 teams (beat Bengals twice) with a combined record of 21-55-2 on the season! Now they take on a Ravens team that, though they've underperformed at times this season, are still a Baltimore team that is off a 14-2 season last year. Also, in road games this season when Lamar Jackson is under center, the Ravens have gone 4-1 this year. Give the Browns some credit for getting tight wins when they have needed to but also they have been blasted by a combined 92-19 in their 3 losses this season and I sense another one here. Off the big confidence-boosting win over the Cowboys last week, the Ravens are back in the saddle again and I fully expect a dominating road performance here and the better defense keys the victory here. 10* BALTIMORE

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #178 Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - This is a tough spot for the Steelers. I know many will be jumping on them here as they expect them to bounce back off their first loss of the season and because Pittsburgh does have the better defense in this match-up. However, due to that strange scheduling quirk with the Steelers match-up with the Ravens being played almost a full week later than originally scheduled, Pittsburgh is now playing their 3rd game in 12 days! That is tough on a team plus they faced a Baltimore team that is a physical rival of theirs plus they faced a tough Redskins defense. How much will the Steelers have left in the tank here? I feel it won't be enough to get past a strong Bills team. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh's road wins have included beating the Titans (but only by a field goal) and the Ravens (but Steelers were significantly out-statted). But the other Pitt road wins were against teams that are a combined 9-27 on the season. Now they travel to face a Buffalo team that is 5-1 SU at home this season with the only loss coming against the world champion Chiefs. Overall the Bills enter this game having covered 4 straight while the Steelers are now off back to back ATS losses. I know Pittsburgh has revenge from last year's home loss to Buffalo as well but this is simply a very bad spot for them. 3 NFL game in a dozen days and especially when facing physical teams in the 2 prior games...it is just not a good set up. The home team holds the edges here. Also, the Bills have scored an average of 34 points their last 4 games while the Steelers have averaged just 18 points their last 2 games. The home team playing with a lot of confidence right now and will be executing better on offense than Pittsburgh given the circumstances. 10* BUFFALO

Non-Conf Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #169 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs New York Jets @ 4:05 ET - We are getting a little lower total here because the 0-12 Jets are involved and because the Seahawks have been trending under for many weeks now. I'll take advantage of the lower number and go with the over here based on the situation. The Jets have some confidence from scoring 28 points last week even though they still ultimately fell short to the Raiders. As for the Seahawks, they are angry about losing at home to the Giants but that was a tougher defense they faced and they still managed 21 first downs in the game but just didn't have the points to show for it. The Seahawks are now angry coming off a loss and Russell Wilson and Company won't hold back against a New York defense that ranks as one of the worst in the league. Not only that, the Seahawks defense is just as bad and Sam Darnold and Company will take advantage. Seattle is a huge favorite here for a reason. They will score a ton of points. The thing is that the Jets also could get a late backdoor cover here because their offense will score some points too. New York has scored at least 27 in 3 of their last 4 games. The Seahawks, before scoring just 12 points last week, had scored an average of 33 points per game in their first 5 home games this season. Now in a back to back home game situation, the high-scoring ways resume here. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #160 Sunday 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Houston Texans @ 1 ET - You wouldn't know it based on the way they played last week but the Bears do have a solid defense. That said, after getting embarrassed at home by allowing 400 passing yards to the Lions last week, I do expect a big response from the Chicago defense in the 2nd game of back to back home contests. No one likes getting embarrassed at home and no one likes losing 6 straight games but that is currently the situation for the Bears. They will respond here against a Texans team that is getting a little too much respect from the betting markets. Houston has one of the worst defenses in the league and, prior to winning their most recent road game, had been 1-4 SU and ATS in road games this season. Chicago's offense has been moving the ball better with Trubisky at QB again and will take advantage of the porous Texans defense in this one. To the public bettor it will look easy to take Houston here and fade a Bears team on a 6-game losing streak. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of that thinking and grabbing the home dog in this one as they respond off last week's home loss to Detroit. 8* CHICAGO

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #102 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - The Patriots are off a huge 45-0 road win over the Chargers. However, don't jump to conclusions based on that one performance. For one thing, New England only had a yardage edge of 33 yards in that game. Secondly, the Patriots entered that game having lost 4 of 5 road games SU and ATS. So New England is off a rare road win. As for the Rams, their most recent home game was a rare loss. Yes, Los Angeles was a perfect 4-0 SU at home before they lost hosting San Francisco two weeks ago. The Rams responded by blasting the Cardinals at Arizona last week. Unlike the Pats, LA actually had a big yardage edge that justified the big win. Los Angeles dominated their division rival to the tune of a 463-232 edge in yardage. Not only that, the Rams have big time revenge here because they lost in the Super Bowl in an embarrassing performance against Tom Brady and the Patriots two years ago. Will they get their revenge? I feel strongly that they absolutely will as Brady is now in Tampa Bay and Cam Newton has struggled badly in his time with the Patriots. New England enters this game off back to back wins but has averaged just 235 yards of offense in those two victories. The Patriots will prove to be no match for a revenge-minded Rams team that has the much better offense plus one of the best defenses in the NFL. This line may seem set in a strange range considering it is a -5 but don't let that scare you away on this one. It is bigger than a 3 or 4 for a reason and I see LA pulling away for a victory by a double digit margin in this one. Look for the Rams to improve to 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games while the Patriots drop to 2-5 SU and ATS in road games this season. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS 

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #483 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:05 ET - Decent weather expected in Baltimore this evening as it will be chilly but no precipitation and winds will be subsiding by the evening hours after a little bit of breeziness in the afternoon. That means both offenses should be fully functional here and I expect a huge effort from the Ravens offensive unit as they get QB Lamar Jackson back for this one. He will give the Cowboys defense fits in this one. Dallas has struggled on that side of the ball all season and has allowed 32.6 points per game on the year! The offense for the Cowboys has had struggles but they faced adversity with losing starting QB Dak Prescott to season-ending injury and then also being without QB Andy Dalton some too (covid-19). Dalton will be under center for this one and, interestingly, he has had some big games in his career against the Ravens. As a member of the Bengals, Dalton would face division rival Baltimore twice a year. Can he recapture some of that magic here? The Ravens have allowed 28 points or more in 3 of their last 4 home games. Each of Baltimore's last two home games have gone over the total. Look for that to go to 3-0 L3 after this one is in the books as the Cowboys also move to 3-0 to the over their last 3 games overall. Dallas is off that ugly effort versus the Redskins and will respond here (scored 31 in most recent road game) but won't be able to stop a Ravens team that is also fired up to play better on offense with coming off a loss but now getting Jackson back. Plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #485 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco 49ers vs Buffalo Bills @ 8:15 ET in Glendale, AZ - This game being played in Arizona because of the covid issues in California and that fact is crazy and I expect this game to be a little crazy as well. The 49ers are off a huge upset win against the division rival Rams and that could leave the defense a little flat for this one. Also, San Francisco had allowed an average of 32.7 points per game in its 3 games preceding the win over the Rams. Now the Niners take on a Bills team that has won 4 of its last 5 games and scored an average of 31.3 points per game in its last 4 games overall. Buffalo's defense was supposed to be its strength heading into this season but they have underachieved a bit this season and, as a result, are a little over-rated. That is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. The Bills are off a solid win over the Chargers in which they allowed just 17 points but that was preceded by a stretch in which Buffalo allowed 27.6 points per game over their 9 preceding games. San Francisco is not known for their offensive production but they have scored at least 23 points in 4 of their last 6 games and have scored an average of 27 points per game in non-conference action this season. The Bills have averaged scoring 36.3 points per game in their non-conference match-ups this season. All 3 of Buffalo's non-conference games went over the total while 2 of 3 for the Niners went over the total. All signs point to a high-scoring match-up here based on the long-term trending too and we'll take advantage of the lower total that has been helped by last week's results as each game stayed under the total. This match-up has much different dynamics in terms of being a non-conference match-up. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

Non Conf Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #487 Monday 10* Top Play Washington (+) @ Pittsburgh @ 5 ET - This set up favors Washington in a big way. While they have not played since Thanksgiving and are well rested here, the situation is much different for Pittsburgh. The Steelers were supposed to play on Thanksgiving but the game got postponed multiple times because of covid-19 issues and did not get played until the following Wednesday. That means Washington has a rest edge of nearly a full week in comparison with Pittsburgh's situation. Also, it is simply hard to envision the Steelers finishing the season with an undefeated record. Pittsburgh is now 11-0 on the season and you know that a defeat is imminent. I am not necessarily forecasting that this happens here but I do feel the points will prove to be well worth the taking. 4 of the Steelers last 6 wins have come by a margin of 5 or less points. We're getting a solid 6.5 across the board in this one as of early Monday morning. Many don't realize this but Washington does have a very solid defense. Look for that to be a key in terms of them hanging around in this game. In Washington's last 6 games they had one bad game defensively but allowed an average of only 14.2 points per game in the other 5 games. Washington has scored a solid average of 26.6 points per game its last 5 games and Alex Smith has thrown for 1,030 yards in his 4 games since taking over after the injury to Kyle Allen. Look for the Steelers to drop to 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as a non-divisional home favorite as Pittsburgh is off a divisional win and this is a non-conference match-up on short rest. Also, the Steelers have a tough road trip at an AFC opponent, Buffalo, on deck. 10* WASHINGTON

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs are over-valued here. What many are looking at here is that the Broncos looked so bad last week against the Saints but, keep in mind, they were without any of their quarterbacks. Those guys are back this week including Drew Lock and I expect a much better performance on offense as a result. The other thing many are looking at here is that the Broncos lost the first meeting to the Chiefs with an ugly final score of 43 to 16. However, Denver actually outgained Kansas City by 125 yards in that game and the difference in the game was the turnovers as the Broncos had 4 of them! Even penalties played a role as Denver had 5 compared to KC having just 1. Each of the last 3 meetings have been blowout wins for the Chiefs but that is helping to give us line value here because the Broncos already proved in the first meeting (despite the final score) that they can compete with Kansas City. The Chiefs have won 6 straight but each of their last 3 wins have come by a margin of 4 or less points. That is part of the reason that KC enters this game on an 0-3 ATS losing streak. As for the Broncos, they are 3-1 ATS in AFC road games this season. The Chiefs have the better offense in this match-ups but the better defense (despite ppg averages) belongs to the Broncos as they are allowing 19.3 yards per game less than Kansas City is. Look for another strong effort from the underdog in this one just like we saw statistically in the first game. The difference in this one is that it equates to a cover. 10* DENVER

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #471 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles @ 4:25 ET - The Eagles allowed just 9 points in their game against Dallas when the Cowboys were already without Prescott and did not have Dalton either. In their other 10 games this season Philadelphia has allowed 27 points per game and they are most certainly going to struggle to stop Green Bay here. The Packers have scored an average of 31 points per game their last 6 games and have recorded just one under during this stretch. Look for the over trend to continue here. The Eagles Zach Ertz is a key target for Carson Wentz and he is listed as probable for this one (ankle). The Packers have allowed 29.5 points per game the last two weeks and are in a divisional sandwich here as they just knocked off the Bears and now have the Lions on deck. The Eagles are scoring 21.5 points per game on the season and have not been held under 17 points in any game this season. Given those facts plus the big line on this game - Packers favored by nearly double digits - it comes as no surprise that the over is the play in this one! The Eagles are allowing 27 points per game on the road this season and the Packers are averaging 32 points per game at home this season. Philly won't get many stops in this one but the Pack D has been a little shaky of late and I look for that to continue here as well. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #463 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - I am well aware of the Saints being a different team with Hill at quarterback rather than Brees. So too are the odds makers and yet this game opened up in the upper 40s and has dropped into the mid 40s as of early gameday morning. I am grabbing the line value on the other side of the move as I expect plenty of points in this one after the first meeting between these teams totaled only 33 points. The Falcons are expected to be without RB Todd Gurley in this one but get WR Julio Jones back most likely. This means even more emphasis on the pass for Atlanta in this one and the Saints defense gives up a much higher percentage of yards through the air than on the ground so it will be Falcons QB Matt Ryan that should key a strong performance for Atlanta here. As for the New Orleans offense, they have scored at least 24 points in all their games this season and they enter this one on an 8-game winning streak. Even with Hill at QB the Saints are still a dangerous team with many weapons on offense. Last week they faced a Denver team without any available quarterbacks so they simply played a 'game management' style of game on offense. They will not be afforded that luxury against a Falcons offense led by a veteran QB Ryan. As a result I look for more of a back and forth high-scoring game than most are expecting here. The Falcons have scored an average of 38.5 points per game in their last two home games. 8* OVER the total in Atlanta

*NOTE: I am aware that Lamar Jackson (among others) is now out for this game and Robert Griffin is likely getting the start at QB for the Ravens in this one. I am also aware that this game has been moved yet AGAIN - this time to WEDNESDAY. I still like this play plenty as it is a contrarian play offering huge value. Don't be surprised when the rest of the Baltimore team steps up in this huge rivalry (and revenge) game. Here is the original write-up:* AFC North Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #125 Thursday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - Tremendous line value here because the Steelers are undefeated on the season, come into this game on a 7-1 ATS run while the Ravens are on a 1-4 ATS run and off B2B SU losses. Plus Pittsburgh won the first meeting this season and that was at Baltimore. As a result of all those factors, a line that was as low as a -2.5 is now up as high as a -5.5 on the Steelers and I love the value being offered to the road dog in this one. The Ravens lost in a rain storm at New England two weeks ago and then they were looking ahead to this rematch game when they lost in OT versus Tennessee last week. That said, Baltimore is very under-valued right now. Keep in mind, they actually outgained the Steelers by over 200 yards (including a positive edge of 217 on the ground!) when they faced them of the first of this month. The Ravens were simply done in by turnovers in that game and that is what the betting markets seem to be overlooking here. This is a very strong Baltimore team and they are in a preferred role here as well! Why is that? Well, the Ravens have only lost the money ONCE the last DOZEN times they have been a road dog! I know the Steelers are having a great season. Everyone knows that. But their highly unlikely to go 16-0 and certainly this looks like a great spot for an upset win. Either way, grabbing the points should absolutely prove to be the ATS winner. 10* BALTIMORE

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - Too much value with the home dog to pass up on here. Keep in mind the Eagles are 2-1-1 SU in their last 4 game at home and the only loss came by just two points. The Seahawks are 0-3 SU in their last 3 road games and allowed 104 points in those 3 games. Seattle certainly has a talented offense but the Eagles have allowed a respectable 20.8 points per game in their last 4 home games. Also, Seattle's defense is certainly not a strength and the Eagles offense may surprise some people here. Philly has won only 3 of it's last 8 games but those other 5 games were decided by an average margin of 5.2 points per game. This line is up to nearly a full TD on Seattle and it is simply too much with them on the road for this one. Philadelphia lost in the regular season and in the playoffs last season to the Seahawks and each defeat came by exactly the same score: 17-9. Payback time here. There were very few outright upsets in Sunday's NFL but you know there are shockers nearly every week in NFL and this one has the makings of one. Double revenge spot for the Eagles and note that the Seahawks are off a big divisional revenge win over Arizona. Situational spot favors the home dog. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Sunday 10* Chicago Bears (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - This is just too many points. The Bears could actually get a boost with Mitchell Trubisky returning at QB.  The fact is that Nick Foles had not been playing that well. Also, the last 4 meetings between these teams have all been decided by 8 or less points. The Bears have lost 4 straight games but each of the last 3 defeats have been by 7 or less points. The Packers are off a loss at Indianapolis Sunday in overtime while Chicago has the benefit of entering this game off a bye week. The Packers have played 10 games this season and only 4 of those have resulted in a win by a double digit margin. The Bears are still a proud team and they have had extra time to sort some things out courtesy of the bye week. Chicago actually piled up a lot of passing yardage in their two match-ups with Green Bay last season and Trubisky was the QB for both of those. Don't be surprised if they do some damage through the air in this one. They absolutely need a spark and Trubisky could provide it. The Packers are on a 2-4 ATS run and continue to be over-valued in my opinion. The defenses in this match-up are equal or even slightly favor in of the Bears. Of course Green Bay holds the edge on offense but I have a feeling Chicago is going to look much different this week on offense and will do enough damage here to stay inside this inflated number. This is a rivalry game and we're getting plenty of points when you consider that factor as well. This is a huge game for the Bears to try and close the gap on the division lead that Green Bay has. Don't be surprised when they put up a major fight in this one and stay close throughout this game as they seek the big upset win to stay in the division race. 10* CHICAGO

Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #267 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints @ 4:05 ET - As long-time followers know I am a contrarian. That means when situations like this come up you know I'll be taking a look and, if I like the value going against the move, I am all over it. That is most definitely the case here. This total opened up around 45.5 and now is as low as 35.5 points. It is because the Broncos QB situation is a complete mess as all the QBs on their roster are out due to Covid and related contact tracing. That said, they have only a pair of options at QB as Hinton and Freeman would be the guys. Hinton started out as a QB at Wake Forest before converting to RB. Freeman would be more of a wildcat QB. Either way, I still love the value with this total because Denver most definitely will have some trick plays dialed up here and they catch the Saints defense off a dominating divisional win. On the road and after crushing the rival Falcons, don't be surprised if the New Orleans defense is a little flat here. Also, the weather is going to be very nice in Denver with light winds and clear skies and temperatures possibly reaching into the 40s. Keep in mind, long field goals have a better chance in the thin air of Denver when the weather is like this. I just feel this total is way too low. I know the Broncos defense had a strong game last week but Taysom Hill and the Saints offense are a much better combo than the over-rated Dolphins team that Denver just faced. Also, prior to holding Miami to just 13 points, the Broncos allowed at least 26 points in 7 of last 8 games including an average of 36 points in their last 4 games. Keep in mind that is roughly what the total is on this game for BOTH teams combined and I certainly do expect the Broncos to score some points. They will run some trick plays to keep the defense off balance and, again, you don't have to move the ball a whole lot to get into field goal range in Denver! Broncos kicker Brandon McManus is having a fantastic season as he has made 20 of 21 field goals this season including 14 of 15 from 40+ yards (6 of 7 from 50+ yards). The Broncos ran for nearly 200 yards last week and will find a way to move the ball some and get some points in this game but the Saints offense should light them up too. After all, why do you think New Orleans is favored by 15 points here? Yes that has to do with Broncos problems at QB for this one but also this Saints team can put up some points even without Drew Brees under center. Hill was 18 of 23 for 233 yards passing last week plus ran for 2 touchdowns. Considering all the factors as noted above, there is simply phenomenal line value here with this low total. Flat spot for the Saints defense in a divisional sandwich and the Broncos defense feeling a little too good about themselves after dominating Miami last week plus the Denver D has the hated division rival Chiefs on deck. Neither defense will be on top of its game here in my opinion and we have a very low total to work with in nice weather conditions. I will take it. 10* OVER the total in Denver

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #266 Sunday 8* New York Jets (+) vs Miami Dolphins @ 1 ET - The Dolphins, in my opinion, are one of the most over-rated teams in the league and certainly have been among the most fortunate. With Miami, you have a team who entered last week's action with a 6-3 record on the season and yet they have a yardage differential of NEGATIVE 72.1 yards per game on the season. The Dolphins only average 308.6 yards per game on offense and I feel last week's loss at Denver is a sign of things to come. I know the Jets are 0-10 on the season but they have covered back to back games and 3 of their last 4. They also are a sizable home dog here as they are getting as many as 7.5 in some spots as of early gameday morning. That is significant as New York has covered 13 of the last 17 times they have been a home dog in divisional action. The Jets got embarrassed at Miami in a 24-0 loss last month. They make up for that here and get a little payback. If they fall short of the outright win, they still stay inside the inflated number in this game. 8* NEW YORK JETS

Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #123 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Cowboys versus Washington @ 4:30 ET - I had been watching this total and with the move from upper 40s to mid 40s I am now pulling the trigger on a top play with the over here.  Washington is off a low-scoring win but they were struggling to stop Cincinnati until Burrow got knocked out of that game. The Redskins only ended up scoring 20 points as the Bengals were unable to stay in the game once Burrow got hurt. Washington's offense had been surging though and that resumes here. Since Smith took over at QB the Redskins passing attack is much more dangerous. He is going to take advantage of a Dallas defense that has allowed 32 points per game this season! The Cowboys have allowed 36.8 points per game at home this season. The Dallas offense, with Dalton back under center, is also much more dangerous again and they proved that again last week with a big 31-28 win at Minnesota. The Redskins have some good overall defensive numbers this season but have allowed 28.5 points per game on the road this season. Based on all of the above and the fact that the Cowboys are out for revenge after an embarrassing loss at Washington a month ago, this game is going to have plenty of fireworks! 10* OVER the total in Dallas

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #122 Thursday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Houston Texans @ 12:30 ET - Great situational spot. The Texans are off an upset win over the Patriots and the Lions are off a shutout loss at Carolina. Detroit will respond here at home and Houston, now on the road, will fall flat. Note that the Texans caught New England at the perfect time for an upset as NE had just upset the Ravens at home in a primetime game! Prior to that win the only other wins Houston has the season both came against Jacksonville. Not only are the Jaguars just 1-9 this season but one of those wins came by just 2 points. You can see why I like having the +3 with the home dog Lions in this one. Detroit should get some guys back on offense that missed Sunday's game against the Panthers. Additionally, the Texans have the Colts on deck. That is a huge division rival for Houston and they knocked them out of the playoffs the year before last season. Great situational spot for Detroit in this one and the Lions drop Houston to 3-9 ATS their last 12 games. 8* DETROIT

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Monday NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:15 ET - The Rams are on a long streak of unders but this looks like the perfect spot for it to snap. Los Angeles is off a big divisional win over Seattle. The Rams also have another divisional game on deck. Could there be a little lacking in defensive intensity here for Los Angeles? At the same time, Tom Brady is fired up for a much better performance in this one. Why? Well he and his Buccaneers teammates were just recently involved in a primetime game hosting the Saints and they were thoroughly embarrassed as they scored just 3 points. It is put up or shut up time in terms of the Bucs proving they can play with the best teams in a primetime match-up and Brady and company will be raring to go here! The Rams defense is strong and so too is that of the Buccaneers but this one is about the situation. I do feel the Tampa Bay defense is susceptible here. TB has allowed an average of 28 points in its last 3 games. Also, at home this season the Bucs have allowed more than 30 points in 2 of 4 games. The over is 3-1 in the Buccaneers last 4 games and when they met the Rams at LA last season the game totaled 95 points! The Rams are averaging 428 yards per game on the road this season and scored at least 30 points in each of their first 3 road games. As for the Buccaneers, before their debacle versus the Saints, they averaged scoring 35.7 points per game in their first 3 home games. With losses in each of their last two road games, the Rams are going to come out aggressive in this one. In other words, they'll be aggressive in their play-calling and I expect plenty of points from the road side in this one as a result. But don't be surprised if Tom Brady has a big game too and this could turn into more of a back and forth shootout then many expect. We'll see some field goals too but we'll see enough touchdowns for this one to get over the total which has come down from its opener - another thing I like here. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #471 Sunday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:20 ET - Big time revenge game for the Chiefs. Being able to get them at a -7 has me in play here. Yes I know it is a road game and laying a TD on the road can be a bit dangerous but the Chiefs had dominated in the Raiders for an extended stretch, including 3 most recent wins by an average margin of 27 points per game, before losing earlier season. That loss last month also came at home and there has been some banter about the Raiders enjoying a little extra celebration time after that game at Kansas City. The Chiefs, including head coach Andy Reid, have not forgotten. Now I know the Raiders are looking much improved this season but that upset win for Las Vegas was part of a 1-3 stretch that saw them lose the other 3 games by an average margin of 16 points per game. Since then the Raiders have played better with now 3 straight wins. But they took advantage of facing the Browns in Cleveland in a windstorm with chilly rain and sleet. Then they faced the Chargers and Broncos in back to back weeks and those teams are now a combined 5-13 SU on the season! Las Vegas goes from facing those type of division rivals to not only facing the top team in their division but also the Super Bowl Champions! Not only that but the Chiefs are angry! I just can't see this going well for the Raiders. Keep in mind that is the only loss that KC has this season. Also, they are 4-0 on the road this season and their last 3 road wins have come by an average margin of 16.7 points per game. This one has the makings of a road rout. Lay it! 8* KANSAS CITY

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #462 Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - The Colts have been looking forward to this one. Why? They lost their most recent home game and this will be their first game since then. Indianapolis lost to a strong Ravens team in their most recent game as a host. That defeat came despite a 10-7 lead at the half and despite holding Baltimore to just 266 yards in that game. In other words, don't be fooled by the final score and that is merely serving to give us line value here. Speaking of line value, the Colts did open up at a -3 and now this line has moved so low (-1 -115) in some spots that there is even more value on the money line (-120) in my opinion. This is as of 9 AM ET on Sunday and I am pulling the trigger here on this one. The Packers are getting all the market attention but I feel the better defense prevails here. In Green Bay's only 4 games against stronger teams this season (Minnesota twice and Tampa Bay and New Orleans), the Packers allowed an average of 32.5 points per game! To put that in proper perspective, the Colts have only allowed more than 27 points once this season when they gave up 32 at Cleveland. That was also a turnover-filled loss. With the way Indy QB Philip Rivers has played last 4 games (7 TD and only 2 INT), I look for the Colts to avoid the turnover issues that had plagued them earlier this season. Rivers has averaged 292 yards passing last 4 games and only thrown 1 INT in his last 3 games. Indianapolis was firing on all cylinders in their win at Tennessee and that was a Thursday night game too so they have the rest edge over Green Bay heading into this one as well. I certainly respect Aaron Rodgers and the Packers but feel strongly that the better defense prevails in this game and we don't even have to lay points (thanks to the line move) to have the home team and the better defense and this is when they also lost their most recent home game after starting the season 3-0 at home. Great situation! 10* INDIANAPOLIS

NFC Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #469 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Vikings are off a hard-fought win over the Bears on Monday Night. Even though Minnesota scored only 19 points in that game they did have nearly 400 yards of offense and certainly should have scored more. I know their defense looked good in that one but the Bears have major issues on offense. Also, off of that big divisional win and on a short week, the Vikings defense will not have the same intensity for facing this Cowboys team in a down season. At the same time, Dallas will get a boost on offense with the return of Andy Dalton at QB. Look for the rejuvenated Cowboys, also coming off a bye week, to surprise many by putting up plenty of points in this one. The Vikings have allowed an average of 33.5 points per game at home this season and the over is a perfect 4-0 in their games as a host this season. Speaking of struggling defense, the Cowboys have allowed an average of 32.2 points per game this season and that includes 3 games against NFC East opponents too and everyone knows how bad the NFC East has been this season. In other words, the Dallas defense is simply atrocious and the Vikings, with Kirk Cousins playing well of late, will have a huge game here at home. This total has been kept in the upper 40s because of the Cowboys poor numbers on offense of late. With Dalton coming back, we'll take advantage of the low total as this is an ideal situation for both teams to put up plenty of points. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota 

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #451 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - In NFL in particular, more than any other sport, I like to fade trap lines. The fact is, this game looks like a trap game doesn't it? The Browns are on a 6-2 SU run and plus are 4-1 SU at home this season and yet they opened up as only a field goal favorite against an Eagles team which has won just 3 of its 9 games. The markets also remember that Philadelphia just played a horrible game at New York against the Giants last week. So, what is there to like about the Eagles here? Well they have performed well as a dog in this situation. Philadelphia is 8-4 ATS the last 12 times they have been a road dog in a non-divisional game. Also, the Eagles did open up this season on an 0-2-1 SU / 0-3 ATS run. But, since September, Philadelphia has not had back to back ATS losses. In other words, off the embarrassing performance against the Giants, don't be surprised if they respond again with a big effort when others least expect it. Again, the Browns are 4-1 SU at home on the season and the overall hotter team. The Eagles are 1-3 SU on the road this season. The books now have this line at just a -2.5 on Cleveland in most shops. That doesn't make sense does it? Exactly! Upset alert! Grab the points! 8* PHILADELPHIA

Total Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #321 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals @ 8:20 ET - This total is a big one but don't let that scare you. The weather forecast is typical for Seattle this time of year. Chilly, but not too cold. Rainy, but rather light. The good news is no significant winds expected Thursday evening. In other words, both offenses should be able to have the playbooks fully open for this one. The Cardinals last 3 games have all totaled more than 60 points. Not only that, the Cards have allowed at least 30 in all 3 games plus scored at least 30 in all 3 games! As for the Seahawks, they are off a rare low-scoring loss but that was at LA against a tough Rams defense. Now they are back home and Seattle had scored 27 or more in all of their first 8 games and they reached 31 points or more in all but one of those. The Seahawks are allowing an average of 30.4 points per game. With the Cards surging with momentum after their dramatic last-second win on a Hail Mary pass last week, the offense feels it could do no wrong. But don't be surprised if the Arizona defense continues to struggle here as winning has a way of masking the problems and then teams think things are okay but really this Cards D has issues. The Seahawks will be looking to exploit those again in this revenge game as they did lose at Arizona in their meeting less than month ago. The Cardinals also beat the Seahawks in their last visit to the pacific northwest. That said, you know Russell Wilson and company are out for big-time revenge here but their defense has been a major weakness all season. That is why I expect a ton of points in this one. The over is 3-1 in Seahawks home games this season and the Cardinals recent over trend (3-0) is destined to continue here as well. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Monday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:15 - I'll gladly fade the line move here and go with the home dog in Monday night action in a big divisional match-up. The Vikings are on a bit of a surge now including a recent win over the Packers. However, Minnesota was actually outgained by 76 yards in that game plus they caught Green Bay off back to back road games. It was a bit of a tough spot for the Pack. Still let's give credit where credit is due but that was just one win for Minnesota and they actually lost the stats battle in that game. In terms of the other wins this season, they have come against teams with a combined record of 6-12 SU on the season. Now the Vikings are on the road facing a Bears team that has beaten them 4 straight times. Not only that, Chicago is off a game in which they outgained the Titans by 147 yards but lost on the scoreboard. Keep in mind that game was at Tennessee and they are 6-3 on the season. In terms of other tough match-ups this season the Bears did beat the Buccaneers (now 7-3 on the season) and lost to the Saints (7-2 on the season) on a field goal in OT. The point is that there is solid line value here with a Bears team that has proven it can play with tough teams and this is especially true when they are now catching as much as 3.5 points as a home dog in a divisional match-up against a team whose number they have had. The Vikings have been really hot ATS but the Bears are off an ATS loss and have gone 3-0 ATS this season when in that situation. I also like the Chicago defense (335.1 ypg) much more than the Vikings defense (412.9 ypg) this season. Will be chilly and potentially breezy too in the Windy City tonight and that adds even more value to the defensive-minded home dog in this one. The Vikings running attack has been great this season but the Bears are allowing an average of just 18.5 points per game in regulation time of their home games this season. Also, the Bears just faced a tough running team at Tennessee and they held the Titans to just 92 yards on the ground and only 3 yards per carry. Give me the home dog in this one. 10* CHICAGO

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #274 Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:20 ET - We are betting here on the weather too but that should be a key factor. Wind and rain is expected to move into Foxboro just in time for kickoff of this one. Even if we don't get that key factor which helps unders there are a couple of other key factors I like as well. One is the line move as this line has risen from near 40 up to the mid-40s. Another is the game-planning. I know full well that the Ravens solid defense would love nothing more than to march into Foxboro and completely shutdown Bill Belichick's offense which certainly has been having some issues this season. Keep in mind the Ravens are allowing just 17.8 points per game and that ranks #1 in the NFL this season. The Patriots did score big against the Raiders here but in their other 3 home games this season New England has averaged just 13 points per game. The Pats are a smart team of course though and Belichick knows the key to hanging around in this game is limiting the potent Baltimore offense. In last season's match-up the Ravens scored 37 points and Belichick knows that can not happen again. He will try to chew up a lot of clock when his offense is on the field and now lets talk about the Patriots defense. The Pats have given up too much their last few games in terms of points and that included a rough home game versus the 49ers. After getting embarrassed at home in their most recent game here, you know the defense wants to make up for it. In their preceding 3 home games the Patriots allowed an average of only 16.3 points per game. Considering the above as well as the weather conditions I am expecting a bit of a grinder tonight at Gillette Stadium. 10* UNDER the total in New England 

AFC West Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #265 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 4:05 ET - The Broncos are off a loss at Atlanta but that was a horrible spot for them. They were off miraculous last 2nd home win over the Chargers. That left them flat for the game with the Falcons and especially because it was a divisional sandwich. Yes, after facing the Chargers it was another division rival (Raiders) on deck following the trip to Atlanta. Sure enough Denver fell flat but now they respond here. I feel Las Vegas is a little over-rated right now. The Raiders are such a bad team defensively but caught a break with facing the Chargers last week as Los Angeles still couldn't get over the unreal loss at Denver the prior week. Additionally, the Raiders other recent win was at Cleveland where their defense was helped by playing the game in horrible weather conditions that limited both offenses. Prior to these two wins, Las Vegas had lost 3 of 4 and I feel strongly that they are fortunate to be 5-3 on the season. As for the Broncos, they had won 3 of 4 prior to last week's loss and they are definitely the better defense in this match-up and are flying under the radar a bit right now because they started the season 0-3 whereas the Raiders started the season 2-0. Public perception heavily favors the Raiders in this one and yet the line has moved toward the Broncos in this one. That is sharp money in my opinion and will include some of mine too on Sunday. I am aware of the recent home dominance trend in this series but the Raiders have allowed 33 points per game in their new home and lost plus failed to cover each of their last two games in Vegas. The Broncos were 3-0 ATS on the road this season before last week's loss and again that was a huge flat spot for them. They will not be flat here. 10* DENVER

Early Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #259 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Eagles are off their bye week and healthier than they have been in quite some time. When these teams met in Philly 3 weeks ago the line was very nearly identical to the line on today's game which is a road game for Philadelphia. That would make it seem like there is some kind of mistake here. Of course long-time followers know how I feel about mistakes by the oddsmakers particularly in the NFL. The fact is I have a ton of respect for the oddsmakers and this is no mistake line here. The Eagles are in a great situation here coming off their bye week while the Giants are playing for the 3rd time in 14 days because they also had a Monday night game prior to last week's game which was a hard-fought road win over the Redskins. I do respect the Giants defense but this is also a team that was 1-7 SU on the season prior to last week's win and they finally have their bye next week. Look for it to be a week too late for the Giants as the Eagles pull away for a road rout in this one and defeat the Giants for the 8th straight time in the last 8 meetings. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #122 Thursday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (-) vs Indianapolis Colts @ 8:20 ET - Historically I like playing against line moves and have had particular success when a line flips. What I mean by that is when you have a team that was the favorite earlier on actually become the dog as the week goes on. That is the case here with the Titans having been favored by nearly a full field goal earlier this week and yet now on game day morning they are a +1 in some spots. I'll take it! I do respect the Colts and their tough defense but Rivers and Company have struggled against tougher teams this season. Rivers has some very strong positive numbers against bad teams but against the Ravens, Bears, Browns (the only teams currently with a winning record which he has faced) he has put up a total of only 1 TD while also throwing 3 INTs. Note that the Colts are only 2-2 SU on the road this season and they entered this season 7-17 SU on the road the 3 prior seasons combined. Both teams are on a short week of course with this being a Thursday game. However, it is a little more manageable for the Titans because this is the 2nd of back to back home games for them. For the Colts, they are on the road for the 4th time in 6 games and plus they just played a physical Ravens team. This season, teams are 2-5 ATS the week after playing Baltimore and, again, in this case it is a short week too which makes it even tougher for the Colts. I know the box score was an ugly one for Tennessee last week and they were fortunate to beat the Bears but I am sure they were peeking ahead to this huge division rivalry game a bit too. Keep in mind Indy has dominated this series long-term and that includes winning the last two games here by a combined score of 52-34. The Titans are poised to say "enough is enough" and I look for Ryan Tannehill (19-3 TD-INT ratio) to bounce back after a 10 for 21 performance last week. Tennessee simply wasn't good last week but they still improve to 4-1 SU at home on the season and are now 25-12 in home games since the start of the 2016 season. Titans finally get it done against the Colts at home as Tannehill outplays Rivers as the main story line in this one. 10* TENNESSEE

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Jets vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian. That said, with the Patriots having averaged scoring only 12 points per game their last 4 games and the Jets having scored an average of only 7 points per game their last 4 games, there was only one way I am looking in this game and that is the over. But why? Of course there has to be good reasoning and in this case there is sure is. For one thing we are getting incredible line value with such a low total posted on this game. But in terms of how it will play out Cam Newton was better last week for the Patriots and I expect him to have a strong game here against a Jets defense that has allowed an average of 30 points per game this season. Also, New York's offense might surprise some people tonight. I am expecting both Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder back for the Jets tonight. That is a couple of key talents back at WR for New York tonight and that gives the New York QB some talented targets in the passing game. Now I know what you're saying. Sam Darnold is likely out for this game. No offense to him but he has not been healthy and hasn't looked right. The Jets offense will be in much better hands tonight with the veteran Joe Flacco back there and he'll be attacking a Patriots defense which has allowed an average of 28 points in 3 road games this season. Based on the spread on this game as well as the total the betting markets are calling for a 26-16 type NE win. I am telling you I expect both teams to exceed those respective point totals and that is why I am going big on the over in this game. Yes it is a contrarian play per se but being contrarian (especially in the NFL) is how I have lasted successfully in this industry for two decades. You have to pick your spots to be a contrarian but this is one of those spots and, almost forgot to mention this but, the weather is certainly going to be spectacular this evening in East Rutherford, NJ for this one. Light winds, no precipitation, and very mild temperatures. 10* OVER the total in New York Jets 

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (+) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - the saints have won 4 straight games, i fully realize this is a revenge game for tampa bay but the buccaneers last 4 games have featured a loss and a 2-point win, there is great value with having the points on your side in this match-up, the bucs defense grabs all the headlines but the saints defense is better than you think, take a look at the yardage stats rather than just point totals to get the full read on a defense, in this case the buccaneers are allowing 299.5 yards per game while the saints are allowing 328.4 yards per game, as you can see this is only a small variance, i also like the fact that new orleans should have wr michael thomas back for this game, overall the saints are getting healthier than they have been and that is another reason i expect them to improve to 5-0 su/ats L5 meetings with TB, new orleans is 7-1 ats the last 8 times they have been a dog and in this match-up they are catching as much as 4.5 points as of early gameday morning, the bucs are off a monday night game and that was their 2nd straight road game and this game will be their 9th straight this season without a bye, new orleans a little fresher courtesy of a bye week just a couple weeks ago, the saints are a 1/2 game back in the standings and this is their chance to leap frog tampa bay for 1st place in the division, look for them to make the most of the opportunity, if they do fall short i expect it to be by 4 or less points, grab the dog, 8* NEW ORLEANS

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #472 Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 4:25 ET - the dolphins are over-rated in my opinion and we're catching them at the perfect time to fade them, miami is coming off a big over the rams even though they were outgained by 326 yards and had 23 less first downs, of course this is leading to line value this week because it is also noteworthy that tagovailoa will be making his first road start, arizona has a big edge here with coming off their bye week and that was preceded by 3 straight wins both SU and ATS, if the dolphins were having a poor season the cardinals might overlook them, the fact that miami has a winning record and just beat the LA rams makes sure of the fact that the cardinals will have proper focus here, also another AFC team is on deck for arizona so there is no lookahead here, the dolphins are on a 5-10 ats run as a road dog in a non-divisional game while the cardinals are 4-1 ats their last 5 games against afc competition, statistically the cards have one of the best offenses in the league while the dolphins have one of the worst and i just don't see miami being able to keep up in this one as the cardinals get after tagovailoa early and often and disrupt the dolphins entire game plan  10* ARIZONA

NFC North Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #457 Sunday 10* OVER the total in Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions @ 1:00 ET - This total plummeted because of Matthew Stafford, Lions QB, having been exposed to someone with covid on Monday. However, he is cleared to play as long as his final test this morning comes out okay and even if he didn't I would not be surprised to see back-up quarterback Chase Daniel enjoy success against this struggling Vikings defense! Minnesota has allowed 38 points per game in its 3 home games this season. The good news for Vikings fans is the Lions defense is also very bad and Minnesota had their run game going against Green Bay last week and, of course, once the run is established that makes the passing game even that much easier to get going! Detroit has allowed 29.4 points per game this season. Minnesota has scored 27.6 points per game their last 5 games. The Lions are averaging 25.3 points per game on the season. Look for the over to remain perfect in Vikings home games this season - it is already 3-0 on the year and all 3 flew over by a double digit margin! Also, I am aware of Kenny Golladay being out for this game but the Lions have plenty of other weapons on offense and this is particularly true with the current bad shape that the Vikings defense is in. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota 

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #302 Thursday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - I know the 49ers have injury issues at QB and TE. Also, I am well aware this is a revenge game for the Packers since they lost the NFC Championship here last season. However, this line is getting out of hand. Everyone has been pounding Green Bay and the line is now a 6. When you factor in home field that line is basically saying that the Packers are 9 points better than the 49ers on a neutral field. I strongly disagree. Yes, San Francisco has some injury issues but QB Nick Mullens has gained some valuable experience under center and he wants to make up for his rough effort in primetime when he faced the Eagles not too long ago in a primetime match-up. I also like the fact that the home dog Niners knocked off the Rams in a convincing win as an underdog host just a few weeks ago. San Francisco is a scrappy team and they were 4-3 before the loss at Seattle last week and 2 of those 3 losses were by 5 or less points. Taking a look at Green Bay, they are 5-2 SU on the season but 4 of their 5 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 7-22 SU on the season. I am not totally sold on this Packers team just yet. Remember that they got embarrassed by the Buccaneers this season plus are coming off a loss to the Vikings where they couldn't stop their running back. This was similar to last year's NFC Championship game in which Green Bay couldn't stop Mostert. All the talk in this game is about Garoppolo and Kittle being out for the Niners offense but their defense is better than people realize and I am not totally sold on this Packers team. Look for the 49ers to keep this game very close and possibly even spring the upset as I am expecting Mullens to have a solid game. He has a lot of confidence after playing well when he came in at Seattle Sunday. 10* SAN FRANCISCO

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #274 Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - Of course this goes without saying, and is evident with the big point spread posted on this game, but the Buccaneers are the much better team in this match-up. However, that certainly does not mean they are worthy of laying nearly two touchdowns on the road against a Giants team that is a little better than people give them credit for. In terms of situational value, this is a great spot for New York as they catch Tom Brady and the Buccaneers right before a huge Sunday night game against Drew Brees and the Saints. Not only is that a divisional game for TB, it is also a revenge game as the Bucs lost their season opener at New Orleans this year. Based on records entering this weekend's action, other than the Packers, none of the 6 wins the Buccaneers had were against teams with a winning record. Now they face a Giants team with a poor record too but that's not my point. The point I am making is that be careful giving too much credit to TB based on their early season schedule and, keep in mind, of the 3 tougher teams they placed they won only 1 of those games. They beat GB and lost to NO and the Bears. In Monday's match-up the Giants are going to be tough to put away. They are a respectable defense that has allowed 26 points or less in 5 of 7 games. In terms of putting points on the board, New York has been better in their last 3 games as they have averaged scoring 25 points per game. As good as the Bucs defense is, this is a Tampa Bay team that has allowed at least 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games. I see TB winning this game but I don't see the victory coming by a double digit margin and those numbers I just mentioned support my theory on this one. Additionally, the Giants are well-rested coming off a Thursday night game. They blew a late lead in that one while the Buccaneers were up by just a single score against Vegas last week before they pulled away in convincing fashion late. I like the fact too that QB Daniel Jones led New York to the comeback win (22-3 2nd half) in their win at Tampa Bay last season. The Bucs are better this season but the Giants again won't go away without a fight here and that gets them the cover in this one in my opinion. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #272 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - It might seem difficult to lay double digits with a 2-4-1 Eagles team but I can quickly ease your mind about that for sure. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS this season. Yes indeed Dallas has not covered a single game this season and I certainly don't see that changing this week. I don't expect to see Andy Dalton here as he is in concussion protocol. That means Ben DiNucci is expected to get the start here. He'll be protected by a makeshift offensive line that is the worst in the NFL this season. He'll be handing off the ball to Ezekiel Elliott and he is having a rough season with as many fumbles as rushing touchdowns. Also, the Eagles have one of the top defensive lines in football. This will create havoc for the Cowboys as plays will get blown up at the line of scrimmage. Dallas has scored an average of 6.5 points per game the past two weeks! Each of the Cowboys last 3 losses have come by 11 points or more - average margin of defeat was 20.3 points per game. The Eagles will show no mercy here and are getting a little healthier on the offensive side of the ball. This is a big rivalry for Philly and they are at home and have a bye week on deck. Remember the Eagles blew a 17-0 lead against the Redskins in the very first game of this season. In other words, they already know no lead is safe no matter the situation. Carson Wentz has been playing much better in recent weeks and leading this team to victories. They are facing a Dallas defense that ranks among the worst in the NFL and now has even started unloading veterans to get younger guys more playing time. Waving the white flag? No it is still too early for that but the fact is that this Cowboys team is in disarray and they are in big trouble in this one. The Eagles have scored an average of 26 points per game their last 4 games and that included 2 wins and note that the 2 losses were against 2 of the best teams in the NFL - Steelers and Ravens. The Cowboys last 3 games included games against the Giants and Redskins and yet they still allowed an average of 32 points per game during this 3-game stretch. I just don't see the Dallas offense doing much and Wentz has averaged 277 yards passing the last 3 weeks and thrown for 6 TDs and run for 2 more. Considering all factors, this one turns into an absolute rout because there is no love lost between these two rivals and the Eagles still remember the Redskins loss in a key week 1 divisional battle. Philly won't take their foot off the gas here and the Cowboys defense is one of the worst units in the league. 8* PHILADELPHIA

NFC West Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #269 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers @ 4:25 ET - I am envisioning a shootout here. Yes I am aware of the most recent injury news (both good and bad) for each team. That said, the Niners Jimmy Garoppolo is set to have a huge day against the league's worst secondary in Seattle. As for the Seahawks Russell Wilson, he'll pick apart a Niners secondary that has been impacted by injuries. Yes, the 49ers had a great performance on defense last week but that is because they faced Patriots QB Cam Newton whom, in my opinion, likely spends more time looking at fashion choices and what he'll wear to the next game than actually preparing for opposing defenses. All kidding aside, Newton does indeed have a "few screws loose upstairs" in my opinion. That said, now the Niners face the best offense in the league and this one has all the right ingredients to be very high-scoring. The injury issues have actually helped us because it has kept this total from going higher (at least so far). The fact is I just don't see many stops here. The #1 offense gets it done at home but a surging Niners team with Jimmy G at the helm can also give the league's worst defense problems too. If you like seeing the skills of punters don't watch this game! I expect very few punts! The 49ers seem well past their 2-game slump against the Eagles and Dolphins. Keep in mind, prior to that they had averaged 29 points per game their 1st 3 games this season. They also enter this game averaging 28.5 points their last two games. As for the Seahawks, they are averaging 34 points per game on the season! They are also allowing 29 points per game! I know this is a big divisional showdown but it also sets up well to be a shootout! Beautiful weather in Seattle today too. 10* OVER the total in Seattle

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation#253 Sunday 8* Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 1 ET - Why is it that the Packers did not make it to the Super Bowl last season? That question could generate a number of responses but, technically, there is just one reason. Green Bay lost to the 49'ers in the NFC Championship Game. Today is Sunday. 4 days from now the Packers are at San Francisco for a Thursday Night game. This is clearly a lookahead situation. I know what you're thinking...that the Vikings are a division rival, etc. Valid thinking for sure but GB already beat Minnesota this season and the Vikes carry an ugly 1-5 record into this game. Green Bay might subconsciously be thinking this will be an easy game. That is the thinking that will proven wrong and the Pack get in trouble here as they already have one eye on a revenge game at SF coming up! That wasn't just any loss folks...that was a loss that kept Aaron Rodgers and company from playing in the Super Bowl! In terms of additional value here, the Vikings are off a bye week and that is a chance to hit the reset button on what has been a tough start to the season. Additionally, the Vikings last 4 games resulted in just 1 SU win but 2 of the 3 losses came by just a single point! That means if you had Minnesota +6.5 in each of their last 4 games you would have cashed 3 of your 4 tickets. Indeed the Vikings do come into this game on a 3-1 ATS run. The only ugly loss was when the Vikes faced a very determined Falcons team right after they had fired their coach. The last two meetings between these teams at Lambeau Field resulted in a 5 points Vikes loss and a tie game. This one will be another tight game the way I see it and, if the Vikings don't win outright, they'll lose by a very small margin in my opinion. 8* MINNESOTA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - I know it may seem tough to trust the Falcons here after they found a way to lose another late lead but, keep in mind, Atlanta has been playing better since the coaching change. There is a different atmosphere around this team now and the resilience will shine through in this divisional game which is the perfect opportunity for a bounce back. Matt Ryan has been piling up yardage for the Falcons and, though Carolina got the win in the first meeting, they'll struggled to stop a rejuvenated Atlanta team in the rematch. The fact this game is at Carolina just means line value for us because we get a few points to work with too. Also, though the Panthers are off a cover against the Saints last week, they were heavily outgained including by over 100 yards on the ground. Managing to get a cover when you lose the yardage battle on the ground by more than the century mark in an NFL game is nearly a miracle. That said, there will be no miracles here and I expect the better offense (Falcons) in this match-up to rule the day. Keep in mind, Atlanta blew a huge lead against the Cowboys and the Bears to lose those games but that was then and this now. Combining those tight losses with the loss to the Lions this past Sunday however, the point is that 3 of their 6 losses have come by an average margin of just 2 points. In other words, great value with grabbing the points here although I am expecting an upset win for the Falcons in this one. 10* ATLANTA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - The Rams are in the -250 range on the money line. What does that have to do with laying the points here? Well, as you can see from that line, Los Angeles has a high probability of winning this game and the fact is I have had my eyes on this one ever since successfully using the 49ers against LA last week. The Rams are in full-on bounce back mode here and now the point spread has dropped to as low as a -5.5 in some spots as of early game day morning. Now, about that all-important cover...if you are confident the Rams will win you can also be quite confident of the cover. Why is that? Well of the last 12 wins that LA has had, only one (the 3-point win over the Cowboys in Week 1) has come by less than 7 points. Indeed, 92% of the Rams last dozen wins have come by a margin of at least a TD. I fully expect this one will too. I know the Bears have a solid defense but so too does Los Angeles. Also, I really like the LA offense to have a breakout game here. The other two times this season when the Rams were off a game in which they scored 20 points or less they have responded by averaging 33.5 points in their next game. Look for another response here after scoring just 16 last week against Chicago. The Rams have not yet had a breakout game at home as they are averaging just 18.5 points per game at home this season. Look for this to be the game for Jared Goff and company as they are very fired up after last week's poor effort. As for the Bears, I know they have made some positive strides since Nick Foles took over but their only two tough opponents this season both were faced in Chicago. In those two games - versus Indy and TB - the Bears averaged just 15.5 points per game and that included 8 points on a late TD and 2 point conversion against the Colts with under a minute to go in a game that was really all but already decided at that point. In other words, I am not impressed with this Bears offense and now this is the first time this season they are facing a tough team on the road. They won't be able to keep up with the Rams as I expect LA to have a huge game offensively. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #468 Sunday 8* Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - Every week I always am on the lookout for what I would call "strange lines" in NFL. They are games I want to investigate because if it is something the public is likely to line up on then of course I want to be on the other side of it. This game is a perfect example. Seattle is off their bye week, they are 5-0 on the season, and they have been available as low as a -3 in a game against a Cardinals team that is certainly not known as a powerhouse and already has 2 losses on the season. Who do you think the public is going to take in this game? Exactly! So in typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side but, also in typical fashion, of course it is not without good reason or at least what I certainly feel very strongly is good reason. Yes the Cardinals are off a huge win on MNF over the Cowboys but if you think they are going to fall flat against an NFC West rival that they are chasing for the top spot in the division, there is just no way! Adding to some additional value for the home dog here is the fact that they have a bye week on deck. The Cardinals will absolutely go all out in this one and I expect them to win outright but certainly am happy to grab the 3.5 points being offered. The Seahawks have the worst defense in the NFL so far this season. Seattle is allowing 471.2 yards per game which is 125 ypg more than the Cardinals are giving up. Seahawks must have faced a powerhouse schedule, right? Nope! Even though one could argue their schedule has been tougher than the Cards, the fact is the teams Seattle has faced have a combined record of 9-20 this season and none of them have a winning record. The Cardinals dominated the Seahawks on the scoreboard AND in the stats when these teams last met and that was in Seattle. In the meeting that preceded that, the Seahawks beat the Cards by 17 points here in Arizona but the yardage edge was only 21 for Seattle and now it is payback time. This Cardinals team is better than people realize and the Seahawks defense is going to struggle badly to try and contain elusive QB Kyler Murray. Look for a home dog outright upset as another unbeaten falls this week but there is no way I am passing up on grabbing the 3.5 points here. 8* ARIZONA

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #479 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4:25 ET - The Chargers are very close to the bottom ten of the league for team defense as they are allowing 380.6 ypg. The Jaguars are near to the very bottom of the league as they are allowing 414.5 ypg. This one should see plenty of offense as a result. LA is coming off a bye week and healthier then they have been all season. I expect a big game from QB Justin Hebert here. As for the Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew, I know his season numbers are not so impressive but now he faces a team that has one of the worst pass defenses in the league so far this season and he'll take advantage. This game is off the radar of most people because neither one of these teams is trending to the over or the under or this season. However, that is just how I like it as that preserves the line value for us in being able to take the over in a game involving two defenses that have struggled and we'll also have very nice weather conditions for this one. 10* OVER the total in LA Chargers

Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:05 ET - First off, many of you know that I live in Vegas but want everyone to know I am not a Raiders fan. Not saying I am against Las Vegas, I wish them well and hope the franchise is very successful here just like the Golden Knights have been in hockey - also not a fan of that team by the way. So, the point is, there is no favoritism involved with me making this big play. This is purely based on situational value and waiting has paid off in terms of getting a better number too. As of gameday morning, this line is up to a 5.5 as the big news this week in Vegas was the covid testing and impact on the offensive line for the Raiders in this one. However, let me give you the bigger news on this one! Las Vegas enters this game off a bye week while Tampa Bay enters this game off a huge win over previously unbeaten Green Bay. Now many of you will say the home team here is also off a huge win since they won at Kansas City two weeks ago. However, the key here is the bye week and also the fact that the Raiders lost at home in their game that preceded the upset of the Chiefs. Now the even bigger news flash here that seems to be forgotten by some is Las Vegas head coach Jon Gruden has it out for the Buccaneers in this one. Why? He was fired by them after 7 seasons about a decade ago. This Raiders gig is his first foray back into head coaching since that happened. You think he might have a little extra motivation for this game? Ya think?!?! Indeed he has had two weeks to prepare for this one and Las Vegas will be ready here and I feel the covid situation will prove to not be a big deal at all and the O-line will be just fine in this game. Don't be surprised if the Bucs are a little flat after that fantastic effort against the Packers. As for the Raiders, there will be nothing flat about their game on Sunday. They will come ready to play and I expect a huge game for them. Yes the Buccaneers have the better defense in this match-up but they will struggle to come anywhere close to matching the effort they just gave against Green Bay last week. Couple that with the fact that the Raiders offense (399.4 ypg) ranks ahead of the Bucs offense (358.2 ypg) and you have a fantastic home dog situation here. With Tom Brady in Tampa they will continue to be overvalued by the betting markets. We take advantage. 10* LAS VEGAS

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - In a match-up of unbeatens I am happy to take the better defense in this one. I know Tennessee has made a lot of noise in their past two games with huge offensive performances but the Titans defense (409.8 ypg) ranks among the worst in the league. The Steelers defense (285.2 ypg) ranks among the best in the league. Yes, Pittsburgh has a huge game with the Ravens on deck but there is no way they are looking past an undefeated Titans team. This is particularly true when they themselves are also undefeated and certainly looking to stay that way. I also like the fact that all of the Steelers wins have come by 5 or more points while Tennessee's first 3 wins all came by 3 or less points and then last week's win was in OT. Also, I am sure some Titans fans sent thank you letters to Texans interim head coach Romeo Crennel for his idiotic decision to go for 2 late in the 4th quarter instead of being a normal coach and being happy to kick the extra point and have an 8-point lead. That is the key reason the Titans are still undefeated and, with all their close games this season, it is only a matter a time of that "playing with fire" gets Tennessee burned. I expect them to feel that "burn" this week. 8* PITTSBURGH

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #304 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - This line made a major move on Monday around 2 PM ET (11 AM PT here in Vegas where I live). I watched the screens light up as the Eagles line got pounded down. The thinking process here by the betting markets must be that the odds makers have no idea about injury situations and don't watch the games. They saw Miles Sanders get hurt and they were aware of the Zach Ertz injury. Yet they still posted this line near a -7 which is where it belongs. But now due to false market perception this line has been driven down to a 3.5 which is basically saying the Giants and the Eagles are equal teams if they played on a neutral field. I vehemently disagree with this assessment. Note that as good as Zach Ertz is, the fact remains he has averaged only 16 receiving yards per game the past 3 weeks! He has NOT been a huge component of the Eagles offense in recent weeks. Also there is a decent chance the Eagles will get WR DeSean Jackson back for this one plus Alshon Jeffery even has an outside shot at playing too. Certainly the Sanders injury hurts but the Eagles have some other running backs they will make use of here. Their comeback against the Ravens (would have tied it if not for a late failed two point conversion) did not feature Sanders or Ertz. After going toe to toe with the Ravens now the Eagles take on a Giants team that barely hung on for their first win of the season. New York had started the year 0-5 and other than one 34 point outburst against a horrific Cowboys defense, the Giants averaged only 13.4 points per game in their other 5 games and did not top 20 in any of those games. Conversely, the Eagles have scored at least 23 points in 4 straight games and have averaged 26 points during this stretch. Again, Ertz has played little role in this too. Just look at his stats if you don't believe me. The Eagles have swept the Giants each of the past two seasons and the average margin of victory in those 4 games is 12 points. Eagles hungry for a win, Giants just got their first, Wentz starting to look better (even against powerful Ravens) and Jones for the Giants is still a very young QB trying to find his way at the NFL level. Jones now faces a dangerous defense in terms of putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks with a powerful defensive line. Grab the line value with the small home favorite that is very hungry to get back into the win column and will take care of business against a division rival once again here just like the other recent meetings. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #275 Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The line on this game prior to the Dak Prescott injury was Dallas -3 and it was moving toward -3.5 for sure. But then he got hurt on Sunday so the game came off the board and when it went back up it was Arizona -3. Now all week long I have patiently waited for this one as I knew "America's Team" would get their love from the betting markets and that we'd eventually get the Cardinals as a dog in this one. Sure enough the line has swung back almost to where it was with Prescott at the controls! We are now seeing 1.5 show up this morning on the Cowboys and, in all likelihood it could even climb higher. However, this is the time of day I post my picks here generally so, for me, it is now "go time" with this one. Keep in mind, the last thing the Cowboys could afford was an injury to Prescott. Why? Well because their offense is the only thing they have going for them. This team's defense is atrocious and now led by Andy Dalton at QB. He had some good years in Cincinnati for sure. The key word there however is "had". Note that in Dalton's final season there he threw nearly as many INT's as TD's and had his lowest completion percentage since his rookie season and had a career high in fumbles. Why do you think the Bengals were ready to move on? And, keep in mind, this is the Bengals we're talking about folks! The Cardinals defense will have their ears pinned back for this one (on the attack like angry dogs) and they are allowing only 20.4 points per game. As for the Cowboys defense, they have allowed 40 points per game their last 4 games and have allowed at least 34 points in all 4 of their games since a season opening 20-17 loss to the Rams. Dallas barely held on to beat the Giants last week and their only win so far this season was their miraculous 1 point win against Atlanta earlier this season. Keep in mind, Atlanta and the Giants were a combined 0-10 entering this weekend's action and the Cowboys defense allowed 73 points in those 2 victories. Unless Dallas can pull a rabbit out of the hat on defense I see them struggling against a Kliff Klingsbury coached team with Kyler Murray at QB. Both those guys have Texas roots and Murray has fond memories of games played here in Big D. In fact, Murray is 6-0 all time in games played here including 3 state championships here when he played for Allen High School and also he won a Big 12 title game here too when he was with OU. I would take Murray over Dalton all day every day and it is hard to dispute the importance of the QB in this day and age of pass-happy pro football! Plus he is a dangerous runner too. Overall the Cardinals are the better team and this Dallas defense can't stop anyone and that will end up putting a lot of pressure on Dalton in this one to try and trade scores with the Cards. I don't see that happening. 10* ARIZONA

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #278 Monday 8* Buffalo Bills (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 5 ET - The Chiefs are off a loss so the whole world seems to be lining up on them here and ignoring some key facts. One, the Bills are a pretty good team in their own right. Two, this game is being played at Buffalo. Three, the Bills are also off a loss and they are angry about it as it was an ugly one at Tennessee. When you consider these factors above it simply makes no sense for this line to have gone from a field goal all the way up to nearly a full six points as of game day morning. Just like we saw last night with the 49ers standing up strong as a home dog after an embarrassing loss, I am confident we will see the same thing tonight with the Bills. One of the Chiefs 4 wins came by 3 points in OT. For the Bills, they were a perfect 4-0 SU their first 4 games and I just don't see them getting blown out here. If they lose I am projecting it to be by 4 or less points but an outright home dog upset like we saw last night with San Francisco would not surprise me either. This Bills team is better than people realize. Yes, Kansas City is a very good team but this is not a fun place to play and the temperature will be holding in the 40s with a good chance of rain throughout this one. All of that favors the home dog as well. 8* BUFFALO

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #274 Sunday 8* San Francisco 49ers (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - As long-time followers know I am a contrarian by nature. That said, it should come as no surprised that I am backing the 2-3 Niners over the 4-1 Rams in this one. In a primetime game especially (when the lights are shining and they know the entire NFL world is watching them), a home dog is going to bring its best effort. This is made even more true when that home dog is facing a hated division rival. The 49ers did sweep the Rams last year so I am well aware of the fact that this is a revenge game for Los Angeles. However, that sweep last year also means that the 49'ers have had the Rams number so to speak too! Note also that all 4 of Los Angeles' wins have come against the NFC East or, as it is more appropriately known, the NFC Least! The combined record of those 4 teams is 4-15-1. The only time Los Angeles faced a tough team was when the Rams faced the Bills in Buffalo. Though they rallied in that game they actually were down huge in that game before the late rally. I like the Niners defense here and also am expecting a huge bounce back from the offense. They'll absolutely be ready here with some positive adjustments after the horrific effort against the Dolphins last week. The 49ers are on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog and get the cash again here. 8* SAN FRANCISCO

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #272 Sunday 8* Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - two weeks ago when this line first came out the bucs were favored by 2.5 points...now the bucs are a 1 point home dog in this match-up...the line made a move after the bucs lost last week to the bears but, keep in mind, tampa bay outgained chicago by nearly 100 yards in that game...in comparing the buccaneers and packers, the bucs have been the more impressive defense early this season...i know rodgers has been the much better qb for green bay than brady has for tampa bay...however, i would not be surprised to see brady come up with a huge performance here...factor that in along with the better defense and home field edge and i feel we have great line value here...yes the packers are undefeated on the season and the tampa bay already has two losses but, with my contrarian way of thinking, that is part of the reason i like this play even more...keep in mind, green bay is 4-0 this season but the teams they have beaten have a combined record of 5-14...the only team with a winning record that the packers have beaten is the saints (currently 3-2 on the season) and they appear to be really down a few notches this season...i am not totally knocking the packers here but just saying this was a very intriguing line to me and, with the movement and the current market perception that is anti-tampa bay and pro-green bay i absolutely love this spot for a home win...8* TAMPA BAY

AFC South Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #257 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans @ 1 ET - The Titans have scored an average of 35.3 ppg their last 3 games. The Texans are a new team after firing coach Bill O'Brien and with Romeo Crennel taking over head coaching duties on an interim basis. Even though they threw 2 picks in last week's win (their first victory of the season) the Texans still managed 30 points and piled up a ton of yardage. However, this is still a Houston team that allowed an average of 31.5 ppg their first 4 games of the season and I expect them to struggle to contain a potent Tennessee offense on the road. The issue for the Titans (and what is helping gives us value here) is that their defense is worse than what has reflected on the scoreboard. They have benefited based on some key turnovers but that stuff usually doesn't go on forever and, now, facing a newly-inspired Texans team is likely to cause issues for the D of Tennessee. The Titans are allowing 261 passing yards per game and Houston is throwing for 275 passing yards per game. This total opened up in the mid-50s for a reason and I love the fact that it has dropped to the low 50s and feel we have great line value here with this number lower than it should be. Both teams should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field here. Yes, the Texans held the Jags to only 14 points last week but they allowed nearly 300 yards passing! Houston was helped by 2 Jacksonville fumbles. The Titans will score plenty here but will struggle to slow down the Texans. 10* OVER the total in Tennessee

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #482 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (+) vs Buffalo Bills @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian across all sports but this is particularly true in the NFL. That said, I love taking the Titans in a spot like this. They are the ones that forced a cancellation of last week's game due to Covid-19. They are the ones who are 0-3 ATS on the season. Yes, I'll take Tennessee to finally get the cash at the window this week. Even though they are 3-0 SU on the season they have been a favorite all 3 weeks and have failed to cover each game. The Titans 3 games have all been decided by 3 or less points. Now that they are a dog that makes them well worth the investment here. This is especially true with the Bills moving up to a 3.5 point favorite. I know QB Josh Allen has been huge for Buffalo this season but you can bet the Titans are drawing motivation from that and also the fact that they are undefeated and at home and yet they are the underdog here! Tennessee will absolutely "bring it" in this primetime affair and, keep in mind, the Bills have the super bowl champion Chiefs up next on Sunday while the Titans have the 1-4 Texans next up on the docket. Grab the value with the home dog in this one. 10* TENNESSEE

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:15 ET - I don't trust either defense here and expect both offenses to be able to move the ball quite well in this one. The Chargers defense ranks poorly in terms of defending the pass and that was on full display when they blew a 24-7 lead and lost to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in their most recent game. Of course Drew Brees arm is not nearly what it used to be but he still helped lead the Saints to an average of 30.8 points per game their first 4 games this season. That ranks among the best in the NFL. Though the Chargers have not scored as well, their offense actually entered this week's action ranked in the top ten in the NFL based on yardage per game. That said, Los Angeles may not have trouble finding the end zone against this New Orleans team. The Saints are allowing an average of 30.8 points per game on the year. Chargers rookie QB Hebert threw for nearly 300 yards last week and 3 touchdowns! We have finally see the over trend in primetime games slow down recently but Saints games are 4-0 to the over this season and, with this total dropping some from an opener of 52 down to 50 we have extra value here. That has me going to my highest level in terms of the rating on this one. 10* OVER the total in New Orleans

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:20 ET - The Vikings defense has had a major dropoff this season. They have one of the worst pass defenses in the league and now take on a Seahawks passing attack that is one of the best in the league. At the same time, the Minnesota offense will be able to take advantage of facing a Seattle defense that has struggled badly this season. This total opened up in the upper 50s but has dropped to a 56 as of game day morning and now we're getting to the value area with this total. Yes I know it is still a big total but it is absolutely justified as I just can not foresee many defensive stops in this game. The Vikes have scored 30 or more points in 3 of their 4 games this season while the Hawks have scored at least 31 points in all 4 of their games. Yes we could (should!) see each team get to the 30 point mark in this one and, either way, I am expecting this game to get into the 60s. The Seahawks are allowing an average of 27 points per game this season and are a 7 point favorite in this one. That puts this game potentially into the 34-27 range and, keep in mind, Minnesota allowed 34 points per game in their first 3 games this season. Even against a winless Texans team last week the Vikings allowed 23 points plus nearly 300 passing yards! Seahawks QB Russell Wilson should have another huge day here but his teammates on defense will again be on their heels all game long in another wild one. 8* OVER the total in Seattle

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Cleveland Browns @ 4:25 ET - Long-time followers know I love to fade line moves in the NFL when the situation is right and that is the case here in my opinion. The Colts were as high as a 3 point favorite in this game and now are a 1 point underdog as of early game day morning. While Cleveland is an improved team this is a horrible spot for them. They are off a road dog upset win at Dallas where they blew a huge lead and then had to hang for dear life against the Cowboys. Now they are back home but have a huge divisional game on deck with Pittsburgh. Yes, the Steelers team that is undefeated and in first place in their division. In looking at this match-up, yes the Colts are also off a road win last week but it was an expected road win. Indianapolis was the favorite and the Bears scored very late in that game. In other words, the Colts not only won the game, they dominated as it nearly ended a 19-3 final. Chicago's TD and 2 point conversion came very very late. The key to the value in this match-up is that the Browns caught a lot of eyes with their win at Dallas last week but the Cowboys defense is atrocious this season. Now Cleveland goes from facing the league's worst defense to facing the #1 defense in the league. The Colts have simply dominated on that side of the ball. Indy has allowed an average of 9.7 points per game the last 3 weeks. The Browns have allowed an average of 31.5 points per game this season. With Cleveland's big game on deck against division leading Pittsburgh, this is the ideal spot to fade them and back the Colts as they look to win for the 9th time in the last 10 meetings between these teams. The Browns had covered just 4 of 15 games overall before upsetting the Cowboys last week. Ideal setup here. 10* INDIANAPOLIS

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #465 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - The Steelers are undefeated with one of the top defenses in the league. Talk to me when they play somebody with a pulse! I am not saying Pittsburgh is not a good team. I am just saying it is easy to be the #1 defense and have an undefeated record when you have played 3 of the worst teams (and worst offenses) in the league. The Steelers have played the Texans, Broncos, and Giants this season. All 3 of those teams rank at the bottom of the league statistically on offense and are a combined 1-11 this season! The Eagles have played the Rams and 49ers and yes San Francisco is hurting some but so too is Philly and yet they beat them outright on the road Sunday night. The 4 teams the Eagles played this season have a combined record of 7-8-1. That is not earth-shattering by any means but much better than the slate of teams with the combined 1-11 record which is who the Steelers have faced thus far. Also, even with facing a much tougher schedule, the Philly defense ranks just behind Pittsburgh's highly touted defense in terms of yardage allowed per game. The Steelers got a bye they didn't want last week. Teams don't want a bye this early in the season but covid-19 changed Pittsburgh's schedule. They are in a lookahead spot here with the 3-1 Browns on deck plus that is followed by a tough Titans team and then the 3-1 Ravens. So two key division rivals coming up and an undefeated Tennessee team whom the Steelers had already been game planning for before the cancellation happened. Facing an NFC team is not high on the Steelers list of concerns when you look at their upcoming schedule. Perhaps they do win this game but I expect the margin to be a single score and with this line having moved to 7.5 the value is clearly with the road dog in my opinion. Memo to the Steelers for this week: you're finally playing a team with a pulse. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #302 Thursday 8* Chicago Bears (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - I know the Bears looked ugly in their home game versus the Colts on Sunday but that was, in my opinion, not unexpected. The head coach of Indianapolis is Frank Reich. He was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles and knows plenty about Nick Foles (Super Bowl winner with Philadelphia a few years ago). The Indianapolis defense is ranked #1 this season and, thanks to Reich's knowledge about Foles and his tendencies the game planning Indy had for that game was top notch. That was part of the reasoning behind why I faded the Bears last week and used the Colts as my top play of the week and it paid off as they dominated. Now I come right back and play ON Chicago as I expect them to bounce back here at home on a short week. The travel situation is certainly tougher for the Buccaneers as they were at home in Tampa Bay plus expended a lot of energy in rallying from a 24-7 late first half deficit against the Chargers. Give TB credit for that rally and I know they are a good football team but this looks like a bad spot for them. The Bears will respond off their first loss of the season. Chicago has allowed an average of only 16 points per game in their two home games this season. I know some pick-sixes have played a role too but, the fact remains, the Buccaneers have allowed more than 30 points now twice in their first four games. I like the Bears defense at home in this one and fully expect a big bounce back effort from the offense here. 8* CHICAGO

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #279 Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:50 ET - Winless teams bring a little extra hunger to games at this stage in the season. Yesterday the winless teams whom were not facing a team that was also winless went a perfect 3-0 ATS as the Bengals, Giants, and Eagles all covered. Also, in the other two match-ups this week involving winless teams it was a battle of teams seeking their first wins as the Broncos faced the Jets Thursday and the Vikings faced the Texans Sunday. In both cases the road team (and the dog) won each game outright. You can see where I am going with this. Yes, the Packers are undefeated on the season and the Falcons are winless but I am riding with the road dog in this one. This game is at Lambeau Field so normally about 3 points added for that. That said, Green Bay opened up as low as a 5-point favorite in this one. I love being a contrarian. That line is saying the 3-0 Packers are only two points better than the winless Falcons on a neutral field. Of course the betting markets are in love with the Pack here and the line is now up to a -7 as of game day morning. I'll gladly grab the points here. The Falcons come in angry as they have blown huge leads (inexcusable!) to the Cowboys and Bears this season. Big dogs left for dead across the sports world are capable of rising up when others least expect it. That was the case with the Eagles last night in the NFL and the Heat in the NBA as well. I sense another shocker here as the Falcons first game of the year was against a tough Seahawks team and then they did build HUGE leads against both Dallas and Chicago before losing those games. The point is that the Falcons are a better team than many are thinking right now and I know what kind of effort they will bring on a Monday Night with the nation walking. Guys show up big for games like this when they are highly motivated and certainly the winless Falcons play this game with a chip on their shoulder. 10* ATLANTA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #277 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - This is more of a play against the 49ers. San Francisco will again be without QB Jimmy Garappolo this week and, on the other side of the ball, are without CB Richard Sherman and 2019 Defensive ROY Nick Bosa. The 49ers are 2-1 to start the season but the 3 teams they have played were a combined 16-31-1 last season. Based on last year's records, this is the toughest team that the Niners have faced yet this season and yet the line keeps climbing and climbing. Yes the Eagles have some injury issues but, as you can see above, so does San Francisco. The fact we can get more than a TD with a Philly team that was up 17-0 versus Washington and lost plus comes into this game very hungry after missing an opportunity for a win (and settling for a tie) versus the Bengals last week is a solid value spot here. The Eagles remain very hungry for that first win of the season and this is a team with a roster full of proud players only a couple seasons removed from a Super Bowl win and still stinging from last year's first round exit from the playoffs. Hungering for their first win they may not get it here but, if they don't, look for the Eagles to fall short by just a single score in this one. Philly defense is allowing just 330.7 ypg this season while the Niners are allowing only 304 ypg. Keep in mind the Eagles had to face the Rams this season. San Francisco has only faced 3 non-playoff teams. That is the story line here as this will be the toughest match-up the Niners have faced and I know the Eagles defense is going to "bring it" in this one too. Nick Mullens had great numbers last week but this isn't the Giants or the Jets defenses that he faced in his first two appearances! By the way, San Francisco has covered just 7 of their last 25 as a home favorite! That is a 28% ATS rate! Getting 7.5 or 8 here is a real bargain in fading the 49ers in this one. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #251 Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (-) @ Chicago Bears @ 4:25 ET - The Bears are 3-0 this season and yet they are an underdog, even though at home, against the 2-1 Colts. As a result, many are calling this line a "mistake" but long-time followers know how I feel about "mistakes" in terms of lines! The fact is that Indianapolis is deservedly the favorite here. The Bears have come back from huge deficits against the Lions and Falcons for two of their three wins this season and they barely held off the hapless Giants for their other victory this season! Those 3 teams that Chicago has barely (and in two cases, fortunately) beaten were a combined 14-33-1 last season! Now they take on a Colts team that looks like the real deal. Yes I know that Indianapolis also has played a rather weak schedule but the Vikings did go 10-6 last season and Jacksonville is better than their early season record would indicate. The road loss to the Jaguars in the season opener for Indy is their only loss so far on the young campaign. Indianapolis outgained the Jags 445-241 in that game but were done in by turnovers. The way I see it the Colts could easily be 3-0 on the season while the Bears aren't too far off from being an 0-3 team this season. We are only in Week 4 of the season and Chicago is already the first team in NFL history with two wins in the same season in games in which they trailed by 16 or more points in the 4th quarter. That won't happen here against a team that ranks as the #1 defense in the NFL so far this season. The Bears scoring defense ranks decently but their yardage defense ranks middle of the pack (15th) in the NFL and again they have faced teams that went 14-33-1 last season. I know Nick Foles is still a solid QB as he showed last week, but the Colts are well coached and Frank Reich (former Eagles offensive coordinator) knows plenty about Foles. Their top-ranked defense will frustrate Foles and the Bears in this one and I look for QB Philip Rivers and company to pull away as this one goes on. 10* INDIANAPOLIS

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #265 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Chargers (+) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 1 ET - Now that this line has climbed to as high as a 7.5 as of early Sunday morning, it is "go time" with this one. Rookie Chargers QB Hebert is making his first ever road start but I like what I have seen from this LA offense. In fact statistically they rank much better in yardage than the Bucs. The fact is, based on stats, the Chargers should have more points than the Buccaneers early this season but that is reversed right now and that results in value in spots like this. Last week the Chargers outgained the Browns by 134 yards and had a 26-14 first down edge and yet lost the game outright. That results in line value in a situation such as this particular one and TB doesn't exactly have a good history as a home favorite. In fact, the Buccaneers have covered just 5 of their last 22 when in that role! With the defenses about equal and the Chargers offense averaging 425.7 ypg comparted to just 334 ypg for the Buccaneers, I am grabbing the big dog value in this one. 8* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Thursday Thrasher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) @ New York Jets @ 8:20 ET - Do you think the odds makers didn't know about the QB situation for the Broncos? Or that they were clueless about everything when they set this line in the -2 or -2.5 range on Denver? In fact, a few days ago this line had the Broncos favored by 3 points and then now they are a 2-point underdog? Long-time followers know how I feel about line moves like this and I'll absolutely grab the value here with the Broncos after a 5-point line swing! The fact is both these teams have injuries on both sides of the ball and it is an ugly match-up as each team is 0-3 to start the season. Of course many will argue that the Jets have the home field edge but, again, the odds makers knew where this game was being played when they made the line! I expect QB Rypien to have a solid start for the Broncos against a bad Jets defense. The fact he got some work in the last game and threw a pick on his final pass (after 8 straight completions) is actually a good thing. If he gone 9 for 9 with a TD pass he might have lost focus here. That interception, which did not cost the Broncos the game by the way, was actually the best thing that could have happened to him. Watch this Denver team come into East Rutherford fully focused on both sides of the ball and get their first win of the season. Keep in mind, the Jets haven't even been close this season. New York has lost all 3 games by a double digit margin and their average margin of defeat is 19 points. The Broncos lost last week was their first ugly one. They lost their first two games by a COMBINED 7 points. Both teams have struggled early this season as their 0-3 records indicate BUT the Broncos have been the more competitive team and we'll see that again in this one. I'll gladly take the points here. 10* DENVER

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #490 Monday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (-) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - Two very strong teams but the Ravens have won 14 regular season games in a row SU and are at home for this game and have revenge from last year's loss at Kansas City and have the much better defense in this match-up. Indeed, even though the Chiefs have not allowed a lot of points this season their defense statistically (based on yardage allowed) comes into this week ranked poorly. The Ravens defense comes into this week ranked as one of the best in the NFL and that was the case last season as well. By the way, Chiefs ranked in middle of pack defensively last year. KC wins games with their offense and, also, their defense is known to not travel as well. The Chiefs D is known for being tougher when at home. That said, I really like the Ravens in this key early season match-up and possible AFC Championship preview. The better D, the home field, the revenge factor, and Baltimore is on an 11-1 ATS run. The Ravens have quite a solid offense as well even though the Chiefs get more of the hype. That said, we'll fade the hype and lay the small number to have a highly motivated small home favorite in this one. This is a statement game for the home team against the defending Super Bowl champs. 10* BALTIMORE

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #488 Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (-) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - I know these teams had identical 13-3 records last season but didn't it seem like almost every break imaginable went the Packers way last year? That type of "magic" is, of course, unlikely to be repeated again this year and, in fact, things usually play out in opposite fashion after a year like that. I know Green Bay is already 2-0 this season but they beat a Vikings team that has some major issues (how about that performance, coming off a loss, against the Colts last week?) and the Packers other win was against a bad Lions team. The Saints won in week 1 against a Bucs team many feel has a great shot at a super bowl run with Brady now at QB. Now off a loss in week 2 against a Raiders team that felt like it had to lift the city of Las Vegas onto its shoulders as it opened up the new stadium Monday night, look for New Orleans to respond off defeat. The Saints were on a 12-3 ATS run prior to the loss to the Raiders. Also, I like the fact this line was a -6 when it opened and it has crashed all the way down to a -3. I am aware of the injury situations for both teams and this line move is simply not justified in my opinion. Saints at home and off a loss and taking on a Packers team that hasn't been truly tested yet this season. I like this set-up a ton and will lay the short number. 8* NEW ORLEANS

Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #484 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (+) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - This line has shot up from a 3.5 to as high as a 6.5 and, of course, that is mostly based on Broncos QB Lock being out for this one. However, Driskell actually played quite well in relief of Lock and that was against a tough Steelers defense. Now he takes on a Bucs team that was one of the worst teams in the league last year against the pass. Also, I am not sold just yet on Tampa Bay. They have all this hype now because of Tom Brady at QB but last time I checked this is still a team that didn't have a winning record last season. Now they are on the road against a Broncos team that finished up last season on a red hot streak in home games. I know they are 0-2 this season but Denver played a pair of tough teams and lost the games by a combined total of just 7 points. Look for the Broncos to be in this game all the way. Denver has a respectable defense and, even without a stadium full of fans the Broncos have an extra home field edge do the elevation there. That is something visitors are not as use to. That is part of the reason the Broncos have failed to cover only TWICE the last DOZEN times they have been a home dog. The Buccaneers were helped by 4 Carolina turnovers last week and they lost their opening game (and only road game) to the Saints thus far. I feel this TB team is way over-rated and an outright upset here would not surprise me which is why I am elevating this play (at plus the points) to my highest level. 10* DENVER

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - Third time will be the charm for the Eagles (and for me). I would not be touching this game if the line had moved 2.5 points the other way but the way this line moved we have strong value with the home favorite in this one. The Eagles opened as high as 6.5 in many books. If the line had gone to a -9 then of course I am not touching them. But the line went the other way to a -4 and the Eagles are a in a great situation here at home and off a home loss. Yes each team is 0-2 to the start the season and I understand Bengals QB Joe Burrow has looked good thus far. But are people forgetting Cincinnati went 2-14 last season while Philadelphia won 4 straight games to close the season out with a winning record and a playoff berth? These teams have not changed that much that they are now essentially equal! Keep in mind teams are normally assessed about 3 points for their home field edge. I know the home field edge is different early this season because of the whole covid-19 situation but the betting markets pushing this line to a 4 are very close to saying the Bengals and Eagles line would be almost a pick'em on a neutral field. I certainly don't see it that way. Philly is angry and has 3 turnovers in each of their first two games. Cincinnati played teams that went a combined 11-21 last season. I know the Eagles also matched up with a weak team (Washington) in game one but they gave that game away after amassing a 17-0 lead. Last week they played a tough Rams team that still has plenty of talent. I think the markets are all wrong with their current assessment of these teams and the Eagles offer great line value at this low number. The Eagles are healthier on the offensive line and defensive line than they've been in their other games early this season and they will win the wars in the trenches in this one. This is a VERY angry and proud team that will show up at home for this one and I see them winning by at least a full TD. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins (+) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:20 ET - The first lines on this one were as low as a "pick'em". Keep in mind this is a match-up of teams featuring an 0-2 Dolphins team and a 1-1 Jaguars team that did win their only home game. In other words, it is "too easy" right? Just take the home team to win and, of course, that is what everyone is doing as the line has been driven up to a -3 on Jacksonville as of early gameday morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side of the line move. Dolphins hungry for that first win of that season and wrapped up last season on a 3-2 ATS run their last 5 road games. Their first road game this season was at New England and they failed to cover. However, though the Jaguars might be improving some they are not the Patriots! Also, the Jags are now 3-7 SU their last 10 games overall. I'll grab the points here. 10* MIAMI

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #289 Monday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:15 ET - Interesting that the Raiders barely beat the Panthers last week and the Saints were quite dominant against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers and then when you look at yesterday's results. Tampa Bay really "took it" to Carolina yesterday. You can see where I am going with this. I just feel that the Saints are the much better team than the Raiders and that this is especially true at this early stage of the season. New Orleans was better defensively last week and last season in comparison with the Raiders. I know this is the first game in the new stadium here in Las Vegas where I live but it is not the same atmosphere that it would have been had fans been allowed to attend. That said, it is not a huge home field edge really and with the Saints having opened up at nearly a full 7 point favorite and now being available at -5.5 I won't hesitate to step in. The Raiders, though off a win in Week 1, wrapped up last season on a 1-6 run. Also, 6 of their 9 losses last seen came by a margin of 18 or more points! The Saints are off a 13-3 season but very hungry after getting bounced in their first game of the post-season last year. In other words, this is a team on a mission and I don't see them losing a game like this. Not at this early stage of the season at least and based on the Raiders penchant for blowout losses I am comfortable laying the -5.5 here. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #288 Sunday 8* Seattle Seahawks (-) vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - This is a contrarian play. But being a contrarian is perhaps most important in the NFL over any other sport in the league. Everyone is enamored with the Patriots here because they are an underdog which is so rare with a Bill Belichick team. Well this New England team has problems. Yes they beat the Dolphins at home in Week 1 but who wouldn't beat the Dolphins at home in Week 1? Now Cam "full of himself" Newton is going to visit Seattle and get crushed by a Seahawks defense that honestly got caught looking ahead to this game and were fortunate to get past the Falcons last week. Oftentimes when team lookahead they lose but Russell Wilson completed a ridiculous 31 of 35 passes and wouldn't allow that to happen as they escaped defeat at Atlanta. Over 300 yards passing and 4 touchdowns for Wilson as he led them to victory. Now a Patriots defense that lost a couple of key players to the Lions over the off-season is going to try and stop Wilson and company on the road. It won't happen. What will happen is that the Seahawks defense plays much better at home than they did on the road. This is the norm for Seattle. The Seahawks had a rough year defensively last year and are anxious to make up for that here and will be fired up for their home opener and a Sunday night game. Seattle has gone 13-4 ATS its last 17 home openers. The Patriots are just 5-5 (including playoffs) since their 8-0 start to last season. Also, Brady now plays in Tampa Bay in case you haven't heard. In all seriousness though, the oddsmakers set the opening line on this one at Seahawks -3.5 for a reason and I look for a home win by double digits in this one as the much-weakened Patriots get exposed in their first true test after the Tom Brady era. 8* SEATTLE

Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #281 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Cardinals vs Washington @ 4:05 ET - These were two of the worst defensive units in the NFL last season. These two teams are both off upset wins in Week 1. Historically I have done well taking overs when a team is off an upset win. This is particularly true when that upset win was in a divisional game. That is the case for both teams here. What happens here is that, even if it is on a subconscious level, teams tend to lose a little bit of their defensive intensity when off an upset win of a division rival. Keep in mind this week now features a non-divisional match-up. At the same time, coming off a win, the offensive units feel like they can "get it done" and "whatever it takes" to win. They have that confidence of having won the week before and the Cardinals certainly have plenty of playmakers on offense and an offensive-minded head coach. However, this is a team whose defense has been sorely lacking and now they face a Washington offense that has some confidence after rallying from a 17-0 deficit to win 27-17 last week versus the Eagles. The result will be plenty of points in this one and I also like the fact that no many are paying attention to this total. This O/U has stayed in the same spot since it opened and I like games that off the radar a bit as we tend to get even more value in spots like that. Lets take advantage again here using a system that has worked very well for me through the years in the NFL. 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #262 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles Money Line (-) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 1 ET - Right away when this line opened up with Philly -3.5 I knew what was going to happen. That was an open invitation to take the Rams and of course that is what happened. The bets flowed in on Los Angeles and drove this line into the pick'em range. Of course the reason for that is bettors have a short memory span. They remember what they just saw and, of course, everyone saw the Eagles blow a 17 point lead at Washington to lose to a lousy football team while then later watching the Rams beat "America's Team" on national television. Never put too much weight into one week's results. Also, the Eagles will have Lane Johnson back for the offensive line this week plus their starting RB Miles Sanders too. Those are two very key pieces and will help rectify the fact that QB Carson Wentz had no chance in Week 1. He was sacked 8 times and threw 2 picks and also lost a fumble. The Eagles will be better able to establish the ground game this week which will open up the passing game which will also feature better pass protection based on healthier bodies. The Rams are a good team for sure but they are coming off a home win while the Eagles are off a road loss. Now LA is all the way on the East Coast for a game that starts at 10 AM on their body clocks and they're facing an angry Eagles team. Philadelphia won each of its last 4 regular season games last season and also 4 of their last 6 home games in regular season action. Back home and off a disappointing road loss and catching the Rams off an upset win, situations don't get much better than this. With the line having settled back into the -1.5 range on this one, the best value in my opinion is to utilize the low price on the money line. 8* PHILADELPHIA money line (-120 range)

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:20 ET - Both teams games stayed under the total in Week One but yet this total opened up as high as a 46. Not surprisingly, the total has since dropped by about a field goal. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the line move and taking advantage of the added value. Of course being on the other side it is not without reasoning of course. For one thing, even though the Browns scored only 6 points in Week One, they faced a very tough Ravens defense. Also, Cleveland had 20 first downs in that game so they were able to "move the chains" decently but were done in by 3 turnovers and a lack of execution at key times. The Browns will undoubtedly be able to execute a little better against a Bengals defense which ranked dead last against the run last season and was one of the worst defenses in the league overall based on yardage and scoring. The Browns defense wasn't a whole lot better as they were #30 against the run last season and also ranked 20th or worse in the categories of overall defense based on yardage and scoring. Cleveland got Hunt and Chubb going on the ground in Week One and Cincinnati got solid yardage on the ground from Mixon plus from QB Burrow. Establishing the ground game can open things up for the aerial attack and both Burrow and Browns QB Mayfield should have stronger games this week. I know the Bengals game totaled just 35 points last week but Cincinnati and the Chargers both had wasted scoring opportunities and also settled for field goals instead of touchdowns. All of this has led to line value with this total this week and I won't hesitate to step in on this one. Both teams will "open up the playbooks on offense" a little more after a conservative Week One efforts that were practically like preseason games for teams to try and work out the kinks after a strange off-season. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland 

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #479 Monday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ New York Giants @ 7:15 ET - Continuity matters in a season like this that is being played without a normal off-season to say the least. Not only that, no pre-season either. That said, can a situation be any worse than that of the Giants. They brought in a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, and new defensive coordinator. New York begins the season by taking on a Steelers team that gets a big boost with the return of QB Ben Roethlisberger under center. The Pittsburgh offense stumbled badly in 2019 without him but were solid in 2018 with him. As for the Giants, a number of concerns along the offensive line and I expect the Steelers to dominate this game in the trenches. New York will struggle to establish the run as a result and this will turn Giants QB Jones into a sitting duck for the Steelers blitz-heavy packages. This one can (and should) get ugly and I am laying the points with the road team. Yes it may seem a bit much but it is justified. In fact, the Giants are on a 1-10 ATS run as home dogs! Also, the Steelers are on a 6-2 ATS run against NFC opponents and New York has failed to cover eight straight home openers! This one turns into a road rout. 10* PITTSBURGH

Primetime Punisher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #478 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Speaking of hype machines, there tends to no team getting more positive press coming into each season then America's Team. This season is no different and the Cowboys once again are penned by many as a team to beat this season. I know they now have McCarthy at coach but I think it is an organizational issue in Dallas that trickles down from the top level down through the staff and players and the results are not pretty. So now this Cowboys team that lost 5 of its last 7 road games is favored on the road against a Rams team playing with a chip on its shoulder after a disappointing 2019. I am not done yet. Dallas had 3 road wins last season and they came against teams with the following "impressive" records: 4-12, 3-12-1, 3-13. Super Bowl contenders, eh? Dallas first needs to prove they can win a road game against a decent football team! They never did it last season and I challenge them to do it right away here in Week 1 against a Rams team that has revenge from a 44-21 loss at Dallas last season. What happened in that game? LA was off back to back divisional wins and had just beaten Seattle 28-12 plus had another divisional game on deck at San Francisco. Scheduling situations don't get much worse than that. In other words don't let last season's result between these teams fool you. Rams are fully focused here and that is bad news for an overly hyped Cowboys team that can't beat a good team on the road to save their life. I'll gladly grab the home dog here. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS

Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints (-) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - Remember all the hype last season about the Browns? Then Cleveland began the season with a 43-13 loss in their season opener on their way to a 2-6 start. The Browns also lost their final 3 games of the season to finish 6-10 for the year. Now certainly I am not saying the Bucs are down so low that they are on the same level as Cleveland. But what I am saying is sometimes playing against the "hype machine" is one of the best things you can do. TB is so over-rated right now in my opinion because of Brady and Gronkowski. Let me remind some people of some facts about this Buccaneers team. Tampa Bay is off a losing season, ranked 24th in the NFL for rushing yardage, near the bottom of the NFL in both punt returns and kick returns, 30th in the NFL for pass defense and 29th in the NFL for scoring defense. Now they are very small 3.5 point dogs ON THE ROAD against a Super Bowl contender coming off a 13-3 season and very hungry after losing their playoff game in overtime. The Saints have covered 11 of their last 14 games overall and this line was up closer to 6 and now is down near a field goal. That is big time value especially when you consider that Tampa Bay has covered just 3 of its last dozen games. I really enjoy watching over-hyped teams get blasted and am confident that we will see exactly that right here. 10* NEW ORLEANS

Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #463 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Washington @ 1 ET - Hungry football team here with the Eagles off the disappointing playoff loss. So here you have a playoff-caliber team taking on a Washington team that doesn't even know what its name is. Washington also is having off-field issues relating to its front office and truly this is an organization that I have pegged as the worst team in the NFC. Washington is on a 1-7 ATS run in their last 8 home openers and the Eagles are confident when facing this team. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and this line (currently 5.5 and having dropped from opening at -7) offers great line value. The Eagles average margin of victory in those 5 wins is 13 points per game. Philadelphia has covered 6 of its last 7 as a road favorite in divisional action. Washington, against NFC East foes, is on an ugly 4-15 ATS run. The much better team rolls to a double digit win here as they get rid of the bitter taste of last year's playoff defeat at the hands of the Seahawks. 8* PHILADELPHIA