Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-18-23 | Clippers v. Jazz OVER 227 | 103-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
The Clippers have gone 9-0 OVER L/9 on the road vs sub par .500 opposition like the Jazz and have eclipsed the total in 10 of their L/12 with not rest vs non-division foes like the Jazz.( clippers played Philly last night and will now be on tired legs and less prepared to play a defensive affair vs a run and gun opponent in Salt Lake city tonight. Meanwhile, Utah: 5-0 OVER home vs unrested opposition like the Clippers and only 1 of their L8 meetings vs the Clippers has failed to eclipse the total. Over is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Over is 12-3-1 in Clippers last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 7-2 in Clippers last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Over is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 6-1 in Jazz last 7 overall. NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two good free throw shooting teams (76-79%), hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47%or more of their shots are 82-44 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
|||||||
01-18-23 | Cincinnati v. South Florida OVER 140.5 | 85-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CINCINNATI is 14-4 OVER after allowing 55 points or less in a win against a conference rival last time out which was the case in a very physical grinding affair vs SMU last time out in a 54-52 victory. Now Im expecting a more wide open style of game as that tilt will exhausting and natural on the road against a USF side that plays a more wide open style of hoops. This Im betting leads to a much higher scoring tilt that the lines makers are estimating. S FLORIDA is 11-2 OVER versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 145.4 ppg. S FLORIDA is 7-1 OVER as an underdog this season with a combined average of 174.4 ppg. CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (CINCINNATI) - off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 47-10 OVER L/26 seasons for a 84% conversion rate with a combined average of 155.7 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
01-18-23 | Bucknell v. Army OVER 142 | 68-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections estimate a combined score of closer to 147 which gives us a full two possession advantage on this offering. BUCKNELL is 13-3 OVER in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 157 ppg. BUCKNELL is 10-2 OVER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 149.1 ppg scored.BUCKNELL is 20-8 OVER (+11.2 Units) as a road underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 150 ppg scored. ARMY is 7-1 OVER when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season with a combined average of 157 ppg scored. CBB Road teams against the total (BUCKNELL) - excellent free throw shooting team (73% or better) against a good free throw shooting team (69-73%), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) after 15+ games are 45-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 149.1 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
01-17-23 | Tennessee v. Mississippi State OVER 122.5 | 70-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Tennessee is off a hard fought physical affair and upset 63-56 loss vs Kentucky last time out and will now be primed for a rebound and redemption minded effort . I know that Miss state will try to slow this game down to a grind, but the Vols will be hell bent on playing more aggressive and a more wide open style of hoops in transition, and Mississippi State will have to open up or be blown of the court. It must be noted Tennessee popped 87 points on the board at home in these teams first meeting this season. Barnes is 24-7 OVER in road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 39% or better after 15+ games in all games he has coached since 1997 with a combined average of 148.1 ppg scored. TENNESSEE L/24 games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average score of 140.5 ppg scored. CBB home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (MISSISSIPPI ST) - poor shooting team (40-42.5%) against an excellent defensive team (40% or worse) after 15+ games are 43-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors wtht a combined average of 134.5 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (TENNESSEE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road losses are 31-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate with a combined average of 133.2 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
|||||||
01-16-23 | Alabama State v. Alabama A&M OVER 140.5 | 69-61 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My rejections estimate a combined score of 144 or more giving us a full possession cushion this total with over position. CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (ALABAMA ST) - poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 Reb/G) vs. a horrible rebounding team (6 or less Reb/G) - 15+ games are 29-5 OVER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
|||||||
01-15-23 | Marquette v. Xavier UNDER 164.5 | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My own projection makes this line closer to 160 giving us a two possession cushion on a under wager. Smart is 19-7 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive overs in all games he has coached since 1997 with a combined average of 139 points per game going on the scoreboard. CBB Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 160 (XAVIER) - explosive offensive team - scoring 84+ points/game on the season, after allowing 85 points or more are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
01-14-23 | Holy Cross v. Lafayette UNDER 125.5 | 48-62 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (HOLY CROSS/ LAFAYETTE) - in a game involving two poor rebounding teams (-3 to -6 reb/game) after 15+ games are 28-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate with the average ppg output ringing in at 113.8 ppg. Play UNDER |
|||||||
01-13-23 | Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 225.5 | 115-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
These teams have a recent history of playing physical defensive affairs here at the Staples Center as is evident by the under cashing in the Nuggets last 5 visits to LA to play the Clippers with a combined average score (200.4 ppg) going on the board. Denver has recently played a long series of home games (four on a row) and when this has happened recently the Nuggets have gone under in 8 of their L/9 tilts overall ( after 4 or more straight as hosts). Meanwhile, the Clippers have gone under in 11 of their L/12 in 2/1 rest situation and have gone under in 9 of their L/10 against .600 or better conf opposition. Everything points to this being a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this offered total.Also the Under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Under is 36-13-2 in Nuggets last 51 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 22-5-1 in Clippers last 28 home games. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
01-13-23 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 241 | 144-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
Back on Nov 14 the Spurs were clobbered by the Warriors by a 132-95 count. Im betting this time around the Spurs HC Popovich will try to slow this game down in a redemption scenario. This will directly effect this score to the under. Yes, I know these teams Ds, do not look viable, but this number is still slightly bloated according to my projections . Under is 9-4-1 in Warriors last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Under is 11-5 in Warriors last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home. Under is 33-16-2 in Warriors last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. GOLDEN STATE is 34-18 UNDER L/52 in road games versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 205.1 ppg scored. . GOLDEN STATE is 25-11 UNDER when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.8 ppg . NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 47-13 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
01-12-23 | St. Thomas v. UMKC OVER 135 | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Tauer is 8-1 OVER when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of ST THOMAS (MN) with a combined average of 157.2 ppg scored. MISSOURI-KC is 6-0 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 161.7 ppg scored. MISSOURI-KC is 10-1 OVER versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 162.4 ppg scored. CBB Road teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (ST THOMAS (MN)) - after scoring 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%) are 31-7 OVER L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 144.1 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
01-12-23 | Celtics v. Nets UNDER 228 | 109-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Im betting Boston and Brooklyn who are two top tier heavy weight teams will conservatively and physically turn this into a grinding affair rather than a run and gun battle which is not abnormal for matchups like this. The Celtics are ranked 9th in defensive efficiency and 16th in pace, while the Nets rank 5th in ppg allowed while ranking 21st in pace. Im betting on this being a rock fight and for the combined score to stay on the low side of the total. BROOKLYN is 17-2 UNDER versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons are 220.7 ppg. BROOKLYN is 11-2 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or more ) over the last 2 seasons with a combined 216.3 ppg scored. BROOKLYN is 8-0 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or more turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 219.2 ppg. BOSTON is 8-1 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. BOSTON is 8-1 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 222.2 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BROOKLYN) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 49-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. NBAteams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 45-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
01-11-23 | Gardner-Webb v. Presbyterian OVER 125.5 | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (PRESBYTERIAN) - poor shooting team (40-42.5%) against an excellent defensive team (40% or less) after 15+ games are 41-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
|||||||
01-10-23 | Cavs v. Jazz UNDER 227 | 114-116 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Cleveland has seen a combined average of 216.1 ppg scored on the road this season in 19 games, and always seem to play at a more deliberate pace away from home while paying special attention to defense in transition. That will definitely be the game plan vs a run and gun opponent Utah. With my projections estimates coming in a 224 I feel we have a comfortable one possession plus cushion to the under. . Under is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. CLEVELAND is 27-13 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 214.6 ppg scored. Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Utah with none of the games eclisping this current offering. Play UNDER |
|||||||
01-10-23 | Hornets v. Raptors OVER 229.5 | 120-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Toronto and Charlotte both have both struggled . Charlotte is ranked 27th in ppg defense, behind the 7th ranked pace, so when they are hitting shots like they did against Milwaukee recently they poured down 139 points in a win. I now expect the Hornets to once again do some damage tonight as Im also betting the Raptors pedestrian offense will hit above their season average as they are forced into opening up with this totals number being eclipsed. Clifford is 12-1 OVER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of CHARLOTTE with a combined average of 241.7 ppg scored. Nurse is 23-11 OVER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game as the coach of TORONTO with a combined an average of 232.1 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
|||||||
01-10-23 | Akron v. Bowling Green OVER 140.5 | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Bowling Green has scored 93, 102, 91, 88 points respectively in their L/4 trips to the hardwood, and Im betting they drag Akron into a run and gun affair here this evening. Akron has eclipsed the 80 point plateau in half of their L/8 games and can light it up offensively when pushed which will be the case tonight. BOWLING GREEN is 11-1 OVER L/12 after scoring 85 points or more 2 straight games with a combined average score of 155.7 ppg going on the board. BOWLING GREEN is 12-2 OVER b when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined score of 155.5 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (BOWLING GREEN) - off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 38-12 OVER L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 149.6 ppg going on the board. Play over |
|||||||
01-09-23 | Texas Southern v. Mississippi Valley State UNDER 133 | 67-71 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Texas Southern has averaged 62.3 ppg on offense on the road this season while their hosts Miss Valley State have averaged 54.6 ppg on offense overall.
Miss Valley State HC Ivory is 9-0 UNDER after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread in all games he has coached since 1997. CBB Road teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (TEXAS SOUTHERN) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 125.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
01-08-23 | Hawks v. Clippers UNDER 234.5 | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Clippers play a strong defensive brand of basketball at home as is evident by 16-3 UNDER record in home games this season with a combined average of 210 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 UNDER in home games after playing a road game this season which is the case here tonight with the average combined score of 207.7 ppg scored. CLIPPERS are 10-2 UNDER as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 207 ppg going on the board. I know Atlanta will push forward here, but the clippers will hold them back in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the number. LA CLIPPERS are 10-2 UNDER in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46%or more of their shots this season with a combined average of 211.5 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 14-2 UNDER in home games versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better this season with a combined average of 208.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 30-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
|||||||
01-08-23 | Washington v. Arizona State OVER 136.5 | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER in a road game where the total is 135 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 155.9 ppg scored. WASHINGTON is 7-0 OVER versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 150.5 ppg scored. WASHINGTON in their L/6 road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 39% or less over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 141.6 ppg scored. Play over |
|||||||
01-08-23 | Blazers v. Raptors UNDER 226.5 | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Portland ihas become more defensively-oriented as time has progressed . Meanwhile, Toronto plays a mugging style of physical basketball that features a strong defense and less than explosive offense. The Trail Blazers have the 12th-best scoring defence in the NBA and are ranked just 20th-best points per game average. The Raptors rank 11th in point against defence and 26th in offensive production and 27th in pace . Im betting on grinding affair lower scoring affair. PORTLAND is 8-1 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 218.8 ppg scored. PORTLAND is 32-19 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.7 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
|||||||
01-08-23 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Marist OVER 126.5 | 56-63 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. MARIST is 7-0 OVER at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 141.2 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (MARIST) - off a home blowout loss by 20 points or more, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season are 32-9 OVER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
|||||||
01-07-23 | Lakers v. Kings UNDER 242 | 136-134 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
The Lakers played last night and captured a win, (130-114) and now on tired legs as they play. back to back affairs, Im betting their strategy will not be a run and gun program, but instead a more defensive minded game plan out of transition that will skew this totals offering to the low side of the lines-makers estimates. Under is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. LA LAKERS in 7 division games this season have seen a combined average of 227 ppg scored. Under is 5-2 in Kings last 7 overall. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA LAKERS) - off a home win by 10 points or more, on Saturday games are 46-14 OVER L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - being called for 21 or less fouls/game on the season, on Saturday games are 61-26 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
01-06-23 | Pistons v. Spurs UNDER 236.5 | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Both these teams have played some wide open games of late, both are defensively deficient, but when sub par teams like San Antonio and Detroit go head to head there is a history of fairly low scoring events. One of the key reasons for these lower scoring affairs is because they are usually more physical as both teams know they have a rare winnable game in their grasp, and the play becomes intense . NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO /DETROIT) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 44-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. .NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DETROIT) - in a game involving 2 sub par teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 235 points or more are 25-3 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 44-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DETROIT) - struggling defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 27-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. DETROIT is 19-9 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.4 ppg scored. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
01-06-23 | Quinnipiac v. Rider OVER 143 | 72-63 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this game Total closer to 147 thus giving us a almost 2 possession value on this offering. Baggett is 9-1 OVER off a close road loss by 3 points or less as the coach of RIDER with a combined average of 154.6 ppg scored. (Rider lost 61-59 on the road last time out) CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points /RIDER (QUINNIPIAC) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (42.5-45%), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) are 40-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 152.1 ppg. Play OVER |
|||||||
01-05-23 | Grizzlies v. Magic OVER 226.5 | 123-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
analysis to follow thank you for your patience NBA team (ORLANDO) - playing on back-to-back days, a sub par team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 94-47 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. NBA team (MEMPHIS) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 45-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. |
|||||||
01-03-23 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin OVER 123.5 | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. The last three meetings in this series have eclipsed this totals offering and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this evening. WISCONSIN is 23-12 OVER as a home favorite or pick over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score of those tilts at 136.5 ppg. MINNESOTA is 7-0 OVER after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 135,6 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (WISCONSIN) - excellent ball handling team - committing 12 or less turnovers/game, after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers are 53-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. Play OVER |
|||||||
01-03-23 | Celtics v. Thunder UNDER 235.5 | 117-150 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
The Celtics' defense allowed the Nuggets to shoot 57 percent from the floor (45-for-79) and 56.7 percent from 3-point range (17-for-30) in a loss at Denver last time out, and will now be focused on playing much better D tonight vs the Oklahoma city Thunder. From a offensive stand point, Celtics have have really been struggling from beyond the arc and failed to eclipse the 35 percent plateau in six of their last eight tilts and have shot below 30 percent from behind the arc in five of those games. Im betting on these two above mentioned expected defensive modifications and trends to directly effect this combined score giving an edge to a under wager cashing . Under is 9-4 in Thunder last 13 overall. Under is 8-1 in Celtics last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. BOSTON in their L/39 games as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 216.9 ppg going on the board. BOSTON is 10-2 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 226.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. BOSTON is 30-18 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 31-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 120 points or more are 52-20 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
01-01-23 | Celtics v. Nuggets UNDER 234.5 | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
After an extended 7 game home stand going into the high altitudes of the Mile High City is not an easy task, and Im betting that will hamper the Celtics ability to play all out back and forth hoops and instead I expect their quality D ranked 7th in defensive efficiency , to stand tall here and for the visitor to play conservative minded in transition. I know Denvers weakness is on D, and the Celtics are explosive offensively, but like I said above the high altitudes after a long home stand will effect their ability to be as aggressive as usual which will directly effect this Total not being eclipsed. Note: The Celtics rank 16th in pace while the Nuggets rank 20th. BOSTON is 30-18 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored.BOSTON is 8-0 UNDER in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season with a combined average of 220.6 ppg scored. BOSTON is 19-7 UNDER (+11.3 Units) as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. BOSTON is 10-2 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season with a combined average of 225.9 ppg scored. DENVER is 12-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons are with a combined average of 229.3 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 44-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 31-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-31-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 235 | 101-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Memphis is playing a top tier brand of defensive basketball and Im betting they will dictate the pace and continue to operate with vigilance in transition. The Grizzlies rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, after playing Philadelphia last night and capturing a win via a strong all out effort at home, Im betting on a letdown effort here and for their offense to be limited. MEMPHIS is 18-5 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots over the last 3 season with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. Green is 11-1 UNDER in road games after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher as the coach of NEW ORLEANS with a combined average of 208.9 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 43-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for 87% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-31-22 | Idaho v. Montana OVER 138.5 | 56-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Montana has has produced 80 plus point offensive performances in 4 straight and Im betting they we wont be slowed here today and be the catalysts in pushing this game over the offered total. IDAHO is 18-6 OVER versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 155.2 ppg scored. IDAHO is 10-2 OVER versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 154.1 ppg scored. DAHO is 8-1 OVER when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 156.8 ppg going on the board. MONTANA is 11-3 OVER when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 148.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. Road teams against the total (IDAHO) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%)are 51-18 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 148.2 ppg. Play on the OVER |
|||||||
12-31-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech OVER 124.5 | 74-56 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this total closer to 128 giving us substantial value with taking an over wager here. VIRGINIA is 8-1 OVER in a road game where the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 134.5 ppg scored. GEORGIA TECH is 6-0 OVER after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 season with a combined average of 156.6 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (GEORGIA TECH) - excellent ball handling team - committing 12 or less turnovers/game, after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers are 46-17 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 134.2 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
12-30-22 | Jazz v. Kings UNDER 240.5 | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
Sacramento played a back forth game vs Denver day before yesterday and took a 127-126 victory. Im now betting they are in a letdown mode , and physically tired and not ready to run and gun here tonight vs a Jazz side off two straight upset defeats . Im now betting the Jazz will be ready to play a better brand of disciplined defensive hoops. Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 Friday games.Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 7-2 in Kings last 9 games following a straight up win. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 116-52 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 80-40 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-28-22 | Nets v. Hawks UNDER 235.5 | 108-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My projected total for this tilt featuring Atlanta and Brooklyn comes in at 229 which gives a two full possession value to the under on this offering. Brooklyn ranks 8th in ppg allowed and. operate at the 21st ranked pace in the NBA. Atlanta ranks in 14th in defensive efficiency. Under is 11-4 in Nets last 15 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 12-4 in Hawks last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. ATLANTA is 33-19 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220.9 ppg. BROOKLYN is 34-21 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225 ppg. BROOKLYN is 25-10 UNDER after 2 straight games being called for 5+ more fouls than opponent with a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN/ATLANTA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 29-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
12-27-22 | Jacksonville v. Notre Dame OVER 129 | 43-59 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Notre Dame has been playing soft hoops of late, even when they have a height advantage they seemed unmotivated to be as aggressive as need be. So I wont be surprised if Jacksonville gets alot of second chances in the offensive zone and score above their season average. Additionally, during their last five games, the Irish have allowed teams to shoot 71.6% from the field and 53.2% in the paint. On the flipside Jacksonville has recorded field goal percentages of 49.3% FG and 67%, at the rim . Notre Dame will push the action, because of being in desperation mode after losing 3 straight and should push past Jacksonvilles slower pace. This Im betting see a combined score that hints into the 130s or more. NOTRE DAME is 6-0 OVER versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 15 or less free throws/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 152.3 ppg scored.
CBB Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (NOTRE DAME) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against opponent off a road win are 25-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 133.1 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
12-26-22 | Pacers v. Pelicans UNDER 237 | 93-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
The New Orleans Pelicans have been missing some of their best players, and have stepped up and played quality ball. This Pelicans team has taken part in a lot of back and forth offensive hoops , but it must be noted that they are ranked 6h in defensive efficiency in the league. Meanwhile, Indiana has also played well of late and its their defense that has been the catalyst . Because of added focus to paying attention to defense in transition, they have allowed 112, 108 points in two marquee wins vs Boston and Miami respectively and Im betting that will stick their winning game plan tonight vs another top tier side and because of this Im betting the expected offensive output will not be eclipsed. Pacers are 8-3 UNDER L/11 overall. Under is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 road games.Under is 17-7-1 in Pacers last 25 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 18-7-1 in Pelicans last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. INDIANA is 13-4 UNDER in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.6 ppg.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 100-49 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 36-12 UNDER L/5 seasons with a 75% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 86-35 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-25-22 | Iona v. Pepperdine UNDER 152 | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 3 h 42 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (PEPPERDINE) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 37-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-25-22 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 226.5 | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 30 m | Show | |
The Lakers on the road- run and gun with wreck-less abandon and are usually punished defensively because their not focusing on their defensive responsibilities in transition. Overall they rank 2nd in pace in the league. They are scoring an average of 115.2 ppg game this season but rank 26th in in ppg allowed and on the road allow a whopping 121.7 ppg on the campaign. Dallas is the kind of team that can- really roll up points in a hurry against this type of side behind super star Doncic. Im betting on a much quicker pace and a more explosive offensive game than many might expect here on Christmas day. . LA LAKERS in 8 road games where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with a combined average of 232 points per game scored.LA LAKERS are 36-22 OVER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 12-3 OVER vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 231.3 ppg scored. Over is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 road games.Over is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 9-3 in Lakers last 12 overall.Over is 21-7 in Lakers last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 5-2 in Mavericks last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Play over |
|||||||
12-23-22 | Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 231.5 | 128-125 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
The Thunder enter Friday's game on a three-game winning streak, having garnered a win vs Portland 101-98 Wednesday to sweep back-to-back games against the Trail Blazers. It was their D, that showed up and played big and now against the run and gun Pelicans Im betting on them proverbially battening down the hatches again behind an improving D, that is now ranked 14th in the league in defensive efficiency. When these teams played on Nov 28 New Orleans took a 105-100 win and another physical battle Im betting is on tonights agenda. Under is 7-1 in Thunder last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NEW ORLEANS is 17-5 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.5 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.6 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a win against a division rival are 28-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 29-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-22-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Stanford OVER 124 | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (STANFORD) - poor three point shooting team (32% or less) against a good 3PT defense 32% or better ), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) are 28-10 over L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors with 130 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (LOYOLA-IL) - in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) are 38-10 over L/ L/26 seasons witn a combined average of 131.8 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
12-22-22 | Northern Illinois v. Indiana State UNDER 155.5 | 67-57 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Northern Illinois thanks to their D, has struggled lately, and the coaching staff has said, that their D needs to upgraded and attention must be focused on slowing down opponents out of transition . Thats fits into most teams thoughts when in this type of downward momentum situation. Note: N ILLINOIS is 9-2 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 129.2 ppg scored. I expect N.Illinois to implement a more concerted effort on D, which will also limit their output offensively, helping us keep this game to the low side of the number. INDIANA ST is 6-0 UNDER in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 138.1 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (INDIANA ST) - after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more, with all five starters returning from last season are 42-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-21-22 | Michigan v. North Carolina UNDER 155 | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Spectrum Center - Charlotte, NC Both these teams could really use a win, and Im betting that this will be a grueling affair and both will pay significant attention to playing a strong defensive brand of hoops in transition and for alot of elbow action in the paint. My projections estimate a score closer to 149 which gives us a significant edge on this Totals offering. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points MICH/ (N CAROLINA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) are 34-8 UNDER L/5 seasons. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-21-22 | Northeastern v. Davidson OVER 137 | 73-70 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play over |
|||||||
12-20-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets UNDER 235.5 | 91-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
This total based on my own projections should be closer to 231 which gives us a 2 possession value with an under wager. 5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons. Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 8-3 in Nuggets last 11 home games. MEMPHIS is 17-5 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 3 season with a combined average of 220.9 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 9-1 UNDER after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season are 213.4 ppg scored. DENVER is 14-4 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS/DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
12-20-22 | Montana v. Gonzaga UNDER 147 | 75-85 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 60 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Gonzaga is off a run and gun affair in their last game vs Alabama, with a combined score of 190 points going on the board. Im betting on immediate regression here vs a Montana side that has proven they can play strong defense when need be as is evident by allowing 59 or less points to their opponent in 5 of their L/11 games. GONZAGA is 6-0 UNDER in home games versus sub standard passing teams, averaging 12 or less assists/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 135.7 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MONTANA) - red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 53% or better of their shots are 44-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-19-22 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 227 | 121-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City has only eclipsed the total in 1 of their L/10 trips to the hardwood. Meanwhile, Portland in their 17 road games this season seen a combined average of 219.6 ppg go on the scoreboard. and rank 28th in the NBA in pace. with this being the Blazers 4th straight road game in the L/6 days Im betting they will hold to their usually methodical pace which will help keep this tilt on the low side of the Totals offering. Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. PORTLAND is 29-17 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 games following a ATS win which was the case last time out. .NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 28-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after allowing 43 points or less in the first half last game are 33-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 23-9 in the last 32 meetings in Oklahoma City. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-18-22 | Oakland v. Boise State UNDER 142.5 | 57-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Oakland is struggling to score and Im betting on Boise State shutting them down , while they themselves will have offensive regression after a big output last time out. BOISE ST is 8-2 UNDER in all games this season. BOISE ST is 8-1 UNDER after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Rice is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in home games off a home win scoring 85 or more points as the coach of BOISE ST with a combined average score of 135.1 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (BOISE ST) - after allowing 55 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. are 31-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-17-22 | Blazers v. Rockets OVER 227 | 107-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Houstons D has been playing well lately, but the run and gun Damian Lilliard Blazers will test that prowess here tonight forcing the Rockets out of their recent comfort zone. I know the Blazers played last night in Dallas, but they are a well conditioned group and more than capable of finding their legs in a back to back situation. It must also be noted because Dallas took such a big lead last night in their win vs the Blazers the Lilliard only played 24 min. So the super star will be fresh tonight and ready to continue his offensive assault. The first meeting this season between these sides saw a combined 236 points go on the board. Houston ranks 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 115.4 . My projections estimate that Portland eclipses that average and the chasing Rockets chase their output and help us cash an over ticket. PORTLAND is 7-0 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 18-5 OVER (+12.5 Units) after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.6 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 30-8 OVER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
|||||||
12-17-22 | Toledo v. Marshall UNDER 166 | 85-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projected combined score clicks in at 161 giving us top value with this Totals offering. TOLEDO is 18-7 UNDER in road games versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season with a combined average of 139 ppg scored. MARSHALL is 13-5 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 144.8 ppg scored. MARSHALL is 6-0 UNDER ( after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 144 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points (MARSHALL) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, an excellent offensive team (76 PPG or more) against a poor defensive team (74-76 PPG) are 31-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-16-22 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 237.5 | 108-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Denver scored 141 points last time out and now Im betting on some major regression from an offensive output perspective. Under is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Im betting his directly effects this total to the under here in this tilt vs LAK. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 101-48 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-16-22 | Blazers v. Mavs OVER 225 | 110-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Portland has won three straight and five of its last six with Lillard leading the way. He is shooting 52.9 percent from the field and 50.7 percent from 3-point range since returning. Im betting he prompts Doncic and company in all out offensive slugfest. Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 overall. PORTLAND is 9-1 OVER after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 234.6 ppg scored. Over is 13-3 in Mavericks last 16 games following a straight up loss. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PORTLAND) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 33-7 OVER L/5 season for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas.Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings. Play on the over |
|||||||
12-16-22 | Missouri State v. Oral Roberts OVER 145 | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this total closer to 148, which gives us value on the over . Oral Roberts has averaged 97.5 ppg at home this season and play a run and gun all out type of basketball that does not pay much attention to defense in transition. I know Missouri State will try to slow down this game, but its not an easy proposition to implement against this type of no prisoners hoops program. MISSOURI ST is 20-8 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game with a combined average of 147.1 ppg scored. ORAL ROBERTS is 8-1 OVER in home games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 175.4 ppg going on the scoreboard. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (ORAL ROBERTS) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games are 28-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate with a combined average of 150.7 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
|||||||
12-14-22 | Wolves v. Clippers OVER 223 | 88-99 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
Minnesota in a recent defeat were bashed by a 133-112 count on Monday when the Wolves saw their opponent shoot 45.7 percent (21 of 46) from 3-point range. The current form of their D, portrays a situation where the Clippers project to score above their current offensive averages. This will aid in overall offensive output projections. Minnesota ranks 2nd in pace, and even without Townsend in the lineup are in all out attack mode which leaves them vulnerable in transition. MINNESOTA is 23-6 OVER after allowing 130 points or more over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score of those 29 games clicking in at 241.1 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MINNESOTA) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better of their shots are 33-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the combined average of 234 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 285-192 OVER L/26 seasons for a 60% conversion rate with the combined average of 227.7 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
12-14-22 | Ohio v. Florida UNDER 143.5 | 48-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Amalie Arena - Tampa, FL My projections make this Total closer to 140 giving us at least one or two full possession edge on this offering from the books. OHIO U is 14-2 UNDER in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 131.7 ppg scored. OHIO U is 11-2 UNDER in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 136.7 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (FLORIDA/OHIO U) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45-47.5%) are 82-36 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-13-22 | New Orleans v. Boise State UNDER 142 | 50-91 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this line closer to 148 which gives us a full two possession value on this offering. Advantage to the under. Boise has allowed 59.3 ppg at home this season, and Im betting New Orleans will be bogged down for much of this game aiding in our under cause. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (BOISE ST) - after allowing 55 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 30-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 138.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-10-22 | Louisiana Tech v. Wyoming OVER 142.5 | 65-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Wyoming has average 80.4 ppg in 5 home games this season so far and their opponents LA Tech have average 78.6 ppg on the road. LOUISIANA TECH is 9-2 OVER versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 151.4 ppg scored. LOUISIANA TECH is 9-2 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 153.2 ppg scored in those 11 tilts. WYOMING is 7-0 OVER in home games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 154.8 ppg scored.WYOMING is 9-1 OVER in home games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 150.4 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (WYOMING) - off a home win scoring 85 or more points, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 41-11 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 153.5 ppg . Play OVER |
|||||||
12-10-22 | Radford v. VMI OVER 142 | 74-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. VMI a team that has already eclipsed the 100 point plateau 3 times this season will push the pace here forcing Radford to open up to some extent, which will help us eclipse this totals offering. Radford has proved it can pour down points offensively with recent 80 and 86 point outputs in their last 2 trips to the hardwood. RADFORD is 8-1 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 144.9 ppg scored. RADFORD is 21-8 OVER L/29 when the total is 140 to 149.5. VMI is 14-5 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 155.9 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (VMI) - off a home win scoring 85 or more points, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 41-11 OVER 26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 153.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
12-10-22 | Buffalo v. Tulane UNDER 157.5 | 63-88 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-09-22 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Columbia OVER 152.5 | 76-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play over |
|||||||
12-06-22 | Coppin State v. NC State UNDER 157.5 | 72-94 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Keatts is 13-5 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) as the coach of NC STATE with a combined average of 139.7 ppg. Dixon is 24-12 UNDER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 18 or less free throws/game as the coach of COPPIN ST with a combined average of 139.6 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (NC STATE) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, on Tuesday nights are 28-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with a combined average of 130.5 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (COPPIN ST) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season are 77-33 L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 133.1 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
|||||||
12-05-22 | Bucks v. Magic OVER 225 | 109-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Orlando has allowed an average of 116.1 ppg at home this season and rank 27th in the league in defensive efficiency and Im betting the visiting Milwaukee Bucks will breach that output here today and for the Magic in chasing fashion to put up enough points for us to cash an over ticket. MILWAUKEE in 25 road tilts versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons a combined average score of 226.1 ppg have gone on the scoreboard. Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in Orlando. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (ORLANDO) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better of their shots are 25-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 239.8 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
12-04-22 | Northwestern v. Michigan State OVER 126.5 | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections estimate a Total that should be closer to 132 thus giving us value with an over wager here as we have a more than two possession edge based on my numbers. NORTHWESTERN is 10-0 OVER L/10 off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite with a combined average of 129 ppg scored. MICHIGAN ST is 9-2 OVER after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 146.5 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (MICHIGAN ST) - excellent ball handling team - committing 12 or less turnovers/game, after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers are 50-18 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate with a combined average of 132.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
12-03-22 | St. Mary's v. Houston OVER 118.5 | 48-53 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Dickies Arena - Fort Worth, TX My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Houston can run and gun and play solid D. We know St.Marys will try to grind this game down to halt in order to be competitive, but Houston will dictate the pace and not allow the Gaels to get into a comfort zone forcing them to open up or be completely embarrassed. This Im betting leads to a higher scoring affair than the linesmkaers are expecting. HOUSTON in their L/11 as a neutral court favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 128.4 ppg .HOUSTON is 7-0 OVER in road games after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less since 1997 with a combined average of 143.5 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is 129.5 or less (HOUSTON) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 29-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
|||||||
12-03-22 | Tenn-Martin v. North Carolina-Asheville OVER 150.5 | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Two teams with capable run and gun offense go head to head here this Saturday. . UNC Ashville has averaged 83.5 ppg in 2 home tilts so far this season while Tenn Martin averages 81 points per game overall while allowing 78 ppg on the road. CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (TENN-MARTIN) - after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more against opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 28-4 L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. Play OVER |
|||||||
12-01-22 | Mavs v. Pistons OVER 221.5 | 125-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
With top player Cade Cunningham sidelined due to a shin injury, the Pistons are finding it difficult to stay competitive, and tonight the Mavericks knowing how vulnerable their opponents are will be very aggressive especially on offense. This Im betting leads to a fairly wide open affair, that easily eclipses this total. Note: Detroit ranks 29th in the league in ppg allowed defense and 29th in defensive efficiency. Over is 12-5 in Mavericks last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. DETROIT is 13-4 OVER in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored. Over is 8-3-1 in Pistons last 12 home games. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DETROIT) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG), after allowing 130 points or more are 45-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate with a combined average score of 234.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DALLAS) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG).are 72-34 L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 230.4 ppg. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Detroit. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play over |
|||||||
12-01-22 | Youngstown State v. Northern Kentucky OVER 141.5 | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My totals projection is 144 on this total thus giving us a full one possession edge on the number. YOUNGSTOWN ST is 9-2 OVER in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 144.4 ppg scored. YOUNGSTOWN ST is 15-4 OVER L/19 as a road favorite of 6 points or less or pick with s combined average of 144.8 ppg scored. YOUNGSTOWN ST is 9-1 OVER in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 152.6 ppg scored. YOUNGSTOWN ST is 8-1 OVER after a win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 149.9 ppg going on the board. Over is 4-0 in Penguins last 4 games following a ATS win.Over is 6-1 in Penguins last 7 overall.Over is 6-1 in Penguins last 7 games following a straight up win.Over is 5-1 in Penguins last 6 road games.Over is 4-1-1 in Penguins last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Over is 5-1 in Norse last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 9-2 in Norse last 11 Thursday games. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (N KENTUCKY) - off a home win scoring 85 or more points, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 39-11 OVER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
|||||||
11-30-22 | New Mexico v. St. Mary's OVER 136 | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. NEW MEXICO is 6-0 OVER in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 80% or more) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 165.5 ppg. NEW MEXICO is 9-1 OVER after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite since 199 with a combined average of 145.3 ppg. scored. NEW MEXICO is 9-1 OVER after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite since 1997 with a combined average of 140.1 ppg. CBB Road teams against the total (NEW MEXICO) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences are 25-5 OVER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with a combined average of 147.1 ppg scored. Play over |
|||||||
11-30-22 | Clippers v. Jazz OVER 225.5 | 112-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My owns projections estimate a combined score of 227 plus points , which gives us value on this offering .Utah averages 116.7 (4th of 30) while allowing 115.5 (22nd of 30). Meanwhile, the Clippers are essentially on the other side of the spectrum offensively and defensively, but as they showed us last night are reving up offensively and off a 118 output while allowing 112 points in a victory vs the Blazers. On tired legs tonight the Clippers in the high altitudes of Salt Lake City wont have the energy needed to play strong D, and this Im betting helps this combined score eclipse this offering. Over is 5-1-1 in Clippers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better of their shots are 31-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored. NBAl teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 22-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average with a combined average of 239.9 ppg scored. Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings. Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Utah. Play OVER |
|||||||
11-28-22 | Pittsburgh v. Northwestern OVER 127.5 | 87-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Capel III is 24-14 OVER off a home win as the coach of PITTSBURGH with a combined average of 138.6 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (NORTHWESTERN) - after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 22-3 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 134.3 ppg scored. teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (PITTSBURGH) - after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games against opponent after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games are 38-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 130 points going on the board. Play OVER |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Xavier v. Gonzaga UNDER 159.5 | 84-88 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Veterans Memorial Coliseum - Portland, OR My projections estimate a combined score of no more than 155 points which adds significant value to us taking an under stance here. This estimate is above long term trend factors and gives us cushion room, but is viable with a 2 or more possession edge factor. XAVIER is 22-8 UNDER L/30 in road games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers with a combined average of 139.1 ppg scored. GONZAGA L/19 games against Big East conference opponents since 1997 have seen a combined average of 146.1 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (Xavier/GONZAGA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) are 34-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 140.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
|||||||
11-26-22 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. Texas UNDER 146 | 54-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Leon Black Classic - Gregory Gymnasium - Austin, TX TEXAS is 95-53 UNDER as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1997 with a combined average of 134.9 ppg scored. Under is 43-18 in Longhorns last 61 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Under is 37-16 in Longhorns last 53 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (UTRGV) - an excellent offensive team (76 or more PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less PPG), after 2 straight games where both teams score 75 points or more are 24-3 UNDERV L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (TEXAS) - good defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of 42%, or less hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47% or better of their shots.91-51 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Kings v. Celtics UNDER 237.5 | 104-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
My own projections estimate a combined score of 230 . Thus we have value with taking the under in this public centric Totals offering. Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-3 in Celtics last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. SACRAMENTO is 27-12 UNDER in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 225.1 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 34-16 UNDER off a road loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 224.1 ppg . NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 70-36 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 42-16 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. NBA team (BOSTON) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are 127-72 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate. Under is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings in Boston. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
11-23-22 | UMass Lowell v. Brown UNDER 145.5 | 73-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. . CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (UMASS-LOWELL) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, in a game involving two teams that had marginal losing records (40 to 49%) last season are 38-8 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average of 135.6 ppg scored. Play on the under |
|||||||
11-21-22 | Nevada v. Tulane UNDER 145.5 | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections make this line closer to 140 which gives us two full possession advantage. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (TULANE/NEVADA) - in a game involving two teams that had marginal losing records (40 to 49%) last season are 45-7 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate with. combined average of 133.9 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
|||||||
11-19-22 | The Citadel v. Butler UNDER 143.5 | 42-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. . My projections make this total closer to 140 giving us a full possession edge on this number to the under. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (THE CITADEL) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, in a game involving two teams that had marginal losing records (40 to 49%) last season are 35-8 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with the average combine score clicking in at 135.6 ppg. Play UNDER |
|||||||
11-18-22 | Buffalo v. Drake UNDER 156 | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. U.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam - Sports and Fitness Center - Saint Thomas BUFFALO is 11-1 UNDER on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (BUFFALO) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 26-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 144.6 ppg. Play under |
|||||||
11-16-22 | Texas Southern v. Houston OVER 134 | 48-83 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. . Houston scored more than 80 points in in first three trips to the hardwood, and will dictate a faster paced event here that will help us eclipse this offered total. TEXAS SOUTHERN is 16-4 OVER L/20 versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game with a combined average of 145 ppg. CBB teams against the total (HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (60 or more shots/game), after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 33% or less are 32-7 OVER L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 157.5 ppg scored. CBB Home teams against the total (HOUSTON) - dominant team from last season - outscored opponents by 12 or more points/game, after scoring 75 points or more 3 straight games over a 45 game sample size dating back seasons has seen a combined average of 139.9 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Mississippi State UNDER 138.5 | 47-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (MISS VALLEY ST) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, team that had a losing record last season are 34-8 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Eastern Kentucky v. Cincinnati OVER 143.5 | 69-87 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. E KENTUCKY is 12-1 OVER in road games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 160.3 ppg scored.Hamilton is 10-2 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 as the coach of E KENTUCKY with a combined average of 158 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
11-11-22 | Bucks v. Spurs OVER 220.5 | 93-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My own projections make this total closer to 223 giving us a full possession value on a over wager. (The Bucks are the 2nd best ppg defensive team in the league at the moment while the Spurs are the worst). Im betting the Spurs here on their own home court behind a 5th ranked pace try to get the Bucks out of their comfort zone and turn this game in to a more wide open affair. This Im betting results in this total being eclipsed. Both these sides have a hsitroy of higher scoring non conference affairs. SAN ANTONIO is 16-6 OVER in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.9 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 41-23 OVER in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.2 ppg going on the score board. Budenholzer is 27-14 OVER against Southwest division opponents as the coach of MILWAUKEE with a combined average of 235.3 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 45-25 OVER in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 265 points or more are 23-2 OVER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. with a combined average of 235.2 ppg scored. Play OVER |
|||||||
11-11-22 | Nuggets v. Celtics UNDER 231.5 | 112-131 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Boston brings a 21st ranked pace into this tilt against the Nuggets. The Celtics FG conversion rate has been above average to start the season, and thats why in part their output has been near the top of the league, but regression should start to rare its ugly head at some point, and according my projections based on their expected offensive production dip in this tilt, this totals offering is a tad high and should be closer to 228-- giving us value on the under. Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. BOSTON is 37-23 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.7 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 35-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 40-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Boston. Play UNDER |
|||||||
11-11-22 | Michigan State v. Gonzaga UNDER 146.5 | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Armed forces Classic being played on deck of USS Abraham Lincoln - San Diego, CA- Winds expected in the 8 mpg range, which will effect shooting and offensive production because of more passing and in close physical basketball in the key. Play UNDER |
|||||||
11-10-22 | Western Carolina v. Maryland UNDER 143.5 | 51-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Maryland top tier D, that allowed 49 points against Niagara last time out will be key here to this total not being eclipsed. Willard is 61-35 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record in all games he has coached since 1997 with a combined average of 131.5 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MARYLAND) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games, team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak division 1-A conference are 45-18 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 72% conversion rate with a combined average of 136.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
|||||||
11-09-22 | UMKC v. LSU UNDER 142.5 | 63-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB Road teams against the total (MISSOURI-KC) - off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 60 points, good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games are 30-8 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
11-08-22 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Purdue UNDER 144.5 | 53-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. |
|||||||
11-07-22 | Celtics v. Grizzlies UNDER 231.5 | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
I know both these sides can pour down points, but when need be both are solid defensively as well in this battle of top tier sides, Im betting on a more physical type of tilt that will result in a slower pace than the pundits and lines-makers expect based on overall data. the Celtics own the 21 ranked pace in the NBA while Memphis ranks 14th. MEMPHIS is 24-13 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. BOSTON is 41-23 UNDER in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival with a combined average of 194.5 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS/BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 39-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
|||||||
11-05-22 | Pelicans v. Hawks UNDER 233 | 121-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
The New Orleans Pelicans and Atlanta Hawks go head to head Saturday in NBA action at the State Farm Arena. Both of these teams have been taking part in some high scoring events, but my projections tell me that is offered total is a little over blown considering the Pelicans played last night and are on tired legs. The Hawks are much fresher, but Im betting the Pelicans try to slow this game down to a manageable tempo which will in turn help us stay under this offered number. Under is 5-2 in Pelicans last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 5-0 in Pelicans last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 UNDER in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.3 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 17-2 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg going on the board. ATLANTA is 14-4 UNDER in home games versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.3 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ATLANTA) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 35-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
|||||||
11-03-22 | Warriors v. Magic UNDER 227 | 129-130 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Orlando ranks 29th in offensive output, and 12th in ppg allowed and rank 18th in pace. Meanwhile, Golden state is almost the complete opposite, running and gunning behind a fast paced attack. The clashes of these opposites bodes well however, according to my projections for seeing a combined score that fails to eclipse this number. The Magic dont have the overall talent or system to push back hard on the Warriors, and the visitors Im betting after a grueling start to their campaign may treat this like a defacto game off and make a it a more pleasure orientated trip to Disney. Grinder on board. GOLDEN STATE is 15-5 UNDER in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE L/12 road games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (ORLANDO) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, a terrible team (25% or worse) playing a team with a losing record are 65-35 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
|||||||
11-02-22 | Clippers v. Rockets UNDER 222 | 109-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
Houston continues to be inconsistent offensively and tonight against a banged up Clippers side, Im betting this total will not be eclipsed as both teams flow issues lean towards a lower scoring affair. LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 UNDER in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.8 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 12-3 UNDER as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.4 ppg.
NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (LA CLIPPERS/HOUSTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 30-5 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
10-31-22 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 235 | 105-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
The Jazz grabbed a 124-123 win vs Memphis last time out , and once again face the Grizzlies for the second time in three nights Monday in Salt Lake City. Memphis shot 56.8 percent, but Utah countered by hitting 51.7 percent of its shots. It was a wide open event, but now Im betting on offensive regression. Previous to the Jazz last tilt they saw 3 straight unders, and Im betting on this combined score failing to eclipse this offering. UTAH is 24-13 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.4 ppg. Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 home games. Under is 19-7-1 in Jazz last 27 games following a straight up win. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MEMPHIS) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). are 25-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 52-19 UNDER L/26 for a 73% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 93-37 L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
10-30-22 | Wolves v. Spurs UNDER 235.5 | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
The teams spilt the two previous contests in Minneapolis, with the Spurs winning 115-106 on Monday and Minnesota getting the job done in a 134-122 victory on Wednesday. Im now betting on regression from a offensive perspective here in game 3 after the last explosion and for this combined score to more closely mimic the first meeting. Note: Minnesota enters after a 111-102 win at home over the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday with their D being the big difference maker and nothing changes here today as this looks to be a recipe for success. SAN ANTONIO is 13-3 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 216.3 ppg scored. Under is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on UNDER |
|||||||
10-30-22 | Warriors v. Pistons UNDER 230.5 | 114-128 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
I know both sides have played some fast paced wide open affairs, but both sides are openly speaking about playing better D. Based on my projections this line should be closer to 227 thus giving us value with a full possession edge on an under wager. GOLDEN STATE is 15-5 UNDER against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 226.1 ppg scored.
Under is 35-16-1 in Warriors last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. DETROIT is 18-4 UNDER L/22 after allowing 130 points or more with a combined average of 207.6 ppg scored. Under is 6-1 in Pistons last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 23-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DETROIT) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (118 or more PPG are 34-12 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
10-27-22 | Clippers v. Thunder UNDER 218 | 110-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
The Clippers have gone under in 4 straight games to begin their season, rNKING DEAD LAST IN OFFENSIVE out , and 17th in pace and ranking 8th in ppg allowed and 6th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has gone under in 3 of their L/4 overall with a 22nd ranked offensive output despite of a fast pace. The Clippers will be out to slow down the Thunder especially after taking ti on the chin vs Thunder last time out. Im betting on a grinding affair. LA CLIPPERS are 27-14 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 212.8 ppg. LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 UNDER in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 205.1 ppg scored. ( Oklahoma City upset them last time out) NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 45-13 UNDER L/L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - a terrible offensive team (104 or less PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG), after scoring 48 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 125-75 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
10-26-22 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
Los Angeles has been solid on the defensive end so far this season, and will be primed to slow down their opponents in physical fashion. The Nuggets have run and gun with wreck-less abandon so far this season, but Im betting they will have to start to pay attention in transition, or continue to be blown off the court as was the case vs the Trail Blazers last time out in a 135-110 loss that featured allowing 80 points in the second half . I can guarantee you the coaching staff of the Nuggets will be focused on playing better defense immediately and that will help see this combined score stay on the low side of the offered number. LA LAKERS are 51-31 UNDER in road games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots. DENVER is 43-20 UNDERL/63 in home games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher with a combined average of 202.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 125 points or more are 30-2 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 94% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 235 points or more are 24-3 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
10-24-22 | Magic v. Knicks UNDER 220 | 102-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Both these teams NYK and the Magic took part in run and gun fast paced games last time out, and Im betting on tired legs and offensive regression taking its toll here tonight in what will see this combined score fail to see this offered number from the lines-makers being eclipsed. Under is 5-0 in Magic last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Thibodeau is 16-4 UNDER versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game as the coach of NEW YORK with a combined average of 202.6 ppg. NEW YORK is 42-25 UNDER as a favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 209 ppg. Under is 14-4 in Knicks last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 6-2-1 in Knicks last 9 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Under is 20-7-1 in Knicks last 28 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. The L/4 meetings in this series have not eclipsed this offered total. Under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings in New York. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 22-4 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
|||||||
06-13-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 212.5 | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 35 h 23 m | Show | |
Golden States modus operandi since the beginning of this season, has been to play a top tier brand of defense, and the same can be said about the Boston Celtics . Now tonight in a pivotal game 5 battle, Im betting on some very physical hoops with defense being a priority for the NBA two top Ds, out of transition. GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER in home games when playing with 2 days rest this season with a combined average of 201.9 ppg scored. Since the Warriors championship run in 2015, they have been tied 2-2 in a playoff series 4 other times. The UNDER is a perfect 4-0 in Game 5 in this spot. These contests have gone UNDER the offered Total by an average of 16.5 PPG. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 134-87 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
The Celtics were able to score and penetrate at will vs the Golden State Warriors in game 3, and Im betting Boston plans on being offensively aggressive again, but this time the Warriors top tier D will adjust properly and make sure defense is their primary cause here tonight especially with Steph Curry playing injured and less than 100%. Also both sides are very tired as this has been an exhausting post season, and with exhaustion a factor a lower combined score as well. BOSTON is 32-18 UNDER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average 209.6 ppg scored.
Since the 2012-13 season, the total on Warriors tilts has gone 28-10-1 UNDER following a playoff loss in a series game for a 74% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors OVER 212.5 | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Golden State is well rested and Im betting they come and attack Boston with all guns blazing tonight and force the Celtics out of their comfort zone in what Im betting will be a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers are expecting. Boston must also not be underestimated in their ability to be offensively explosive in response to what is coming their way. Over is 11-5 in Celtics last 16 games as an underdog. Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Over is 10-4 in Warriors last 14 NBA Championship games. My projections estimate the Warriors will score +109 points. Note:BOSTON is 15-3 OVER when they allow 109 to 114 points in a game this season with a combined average of 222 ppg going on the board. Play on the OVER |
|||||||
05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 215 | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
With a chance to clinch this series and advance here tonight Im betting the Golden state Warriors come out tonight firing on all cylinders forcing the Mavs out of their comfort zone and into a more wide open affair. This will result in a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers estimates. Golden State scored 127 and 112 points at home in the first two games of this series and Im betting they score +115 here tonight with Dallas in hot pursuit with their estimated output in the 108+ range. Over is 12-5 in Mavericks last 17 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Over is 9-4 in Mavericks last 13 road games. GOLDEN STATE L/25 games when revenging a road loss vs opponent this season have seen a combined average of 224.5 ppg scored.(Dallas won game 4 -119-109). Play OVER |
|||||||
05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5 | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
The Heat came out flat last time out and laid an egg in a lifeless effort losing by a 102-82 mark. However, Im now betting on a bounce back effort, from the Heat especially on offense where they will be much more aggressive but Im also betting the Celtics wont be easily run over and be ready to go head to head in what should be a much more explosive offensive tilt than what we saw in game 4. BOSTON is 17-8 OVER after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 220.9 ppg scored. MIAMI is 7-0 OVER after a combined score of 190 points or less this season with a combined average of 226.3 ppg scored. MIAMI is 17-5 OVER after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.5 ppg scored. MIAMI is 30-18 OVER versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game this season with a combined average of 212.7 ppg scored.MIAMI is 18-7 OVER in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score of 212.8 ppg scored. Over is 21-8 in Heat last 29 Conference Finals games. Over is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 Conference Finals games.Over is 8-2-1 in Celtics last 11 games as a road favorite.Over is 10-3 in Celtics last 13 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 12-4-1 in Celtics last 17 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Play OVER |
|||||||
05-20-22 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 214.5 | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Entering this play off series Golden State and Dallas destinies center around defense as do their successes and failures. The Warriors rank 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 15h in offense and just 13th in pace, while Dallas ranks 2nd in the NBA in ppg allowed and 30th in pace and 24th in offensive output. Needless to say top tier defensive action should be expected tonight. Nothing changed in game 1 of this series and Im betting on a rinse and repeat lower scoring game once again, and now that Dallas has had some time to rest and adjust an even more physical tilt should be expected. GOLDEN STATE is 13-5 UNDER in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game this season with a combined average of 209.4 ppg scored. DALLAS is 33-19 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 209.7 ppg scored. DALLAS is 8-0 UNDER after scoring 90 points or less over the last 2 seasons.with a combined average of 204.5 ppg scored. DALLAS is 40-25 UNDER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average of 211.6 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DALLAS/GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 305-213 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 59% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DALLAS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 131-83 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
|||||||
05-19-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 207.5 | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
With Butler off a 40 point offensive out put in game 1 and now in top form the Heat will be hard to stop.Heat coach Erik Spoelstra won't be surprised if there is another Butler explosion in Game 2. QUOTE: "Jimmy Butler is an elite competitor," Spoelstra said. "There are a lot of guys in this league playing basketball; he's competing to win. That's a totally different thing, and he does that as well as anybody in this league. END QUOTE With that said, Im betting the Heat will go above their expected output tonight, and that the Celtics will have to open up and reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court, which will lead to a combined score that eclipses this total. Over is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 Conference Finals games. MIAMI is 28-17 OVER versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game this season with a combined average of 212.4 ppg scored. MIAMI is 32-18 OVER when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons. BOSTON is 29-17 OVER in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 223.7 ppg scored. Play OVER |