Denver is playing at a very high level right now and are off 4 straight home wins. However, Sacramento must not be underestimated and remain extremely competitive as they have covered 11 of their L/12 games overall. 

SACRAMENTO is 7-0 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season and is 8-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. 

DENVER is 0-8 ATS in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.The Nuggets are 0-12-2 ATS on the road off a home game in which they shot over 50% from the field.Denver Nuggets are 0-20 ATS /4-16 SU L/20 vs a team that has averaged fewer than 58 ppg from two-pointers this season like the Kings.

Play on Sacramento to cover

Washington is not as bad as its sub par record would indicate, as they have proven competitive cashing 11 of their L/16 ATS. Today against a public favorite off of playing 4 straight  road games and on tired legs  they have an edge. 

LA LAKERS are 16-29 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs (WASHINGTON) - off an upset win as a road underdog, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 35-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Wizards to cover 

After a sub par six-game road trip in which they went 2-4, the Portland Trail Blazers are back at Moda Center on Wednesday to play a under rated Oklahoma City Thunder side that I like getting points tonight. After playing the Lakers twice and Clippers once over their L/4 games and being very competitive in those tilts, Im betting the Thunder will be more than prepared for this battle vs a side that depends way to much on Damian Lillard for offensive production and flow. 

Trail Blazers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.Trail Blazers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

The LA Lakers are playing their 4th road game in a row in less than a week and will be on tired legs here vs a New Orleans team that has had a couple days rest after arriving home from a 3 game western road trip. With that said, Im betting on the rested home side getting the cover vs the exhausted road side. 

LA LAKERS are 7-17 ATS  after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.

Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.Pelicans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Pelicans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.Pelicans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Pacific.

Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Pelicans are 4-1 ATS L/5 at home in this series.

Play on the  New Orleans Pelicans to cover

 San Antonio is in nasty early season slump, but their is just to much talent on this team for them to continue to flounder. Tonight in desperation mode and an added revenge factor in play vs a Wolves team that smashed them by DDs back in November , Im betting they get a win and more importantly a cover. It must noted the Spurs are quality redemption specialists  as noted with the following trends:SAN ANTONIO is 21-8 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.SAN ANTONIO is 21-4 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons. SAN ANTONIO is 14-2 ATS  revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

San Antonio is 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series.

Play on San Antonio to cover

The Pacers enter the contest with a three-game winning streak and have won seven of nine at home and are proving to me that they are a top tier team in the east. I respect Utah alot but after a hard fought loss to Milwaukkee last time out, Im betting they will experience a letdown performance. 

INDIANA is 13-4 ATS in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team vs the money line (INDIANA) - after a cover as a double digit favorite against opponent off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 24-3 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Underdogs (UTAH) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 19-64 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover

Dallas has won and covered 5 straight games while outscoring their opposition by an average of  23.8 ppg and have a huge amount of momentum on their sides. The Clippers are getting all the respect here and the Mavericks are not, which is fine by me as we are getting very good value with the underdog. Dallas owns .7.38 SRS which is 5th best in the league while, the Clippers rank 4th with a 7.76 SRS. When taking in to account home court advantage according to those numbers the wrong team is favored. Note:SRS:  Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

DALLAS is 32-17 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 13-4 ATS in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.DALLAS is 34-21 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 7-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CLIPPERS) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 43% or less on the season, averaging 53 or more rebounds/game on the season are 19-39 L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Dallas to cover 

The San Antonio Spurs ended their eight-game losing streak with a victory at the New York Knicks on Saturday and now have a chance to right their proverbial  ship as they prepare  play nine of the next 11 games at home. The visiting Lakers despite of being exhausted as they play their 3rd road game in 4 nights are obvious public favs here which according to my projections is offering us a viable underdog number to bet into with the host team the Spurs. The Spurs also have the motivation of playing with revenge tonight for a 103-96 loss they suffered at home here vs the lakers back on Nov 3. Note: SAN ANTONIO is 25-8 ATS   revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

LA LAKERS are 15-28 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.

Spurs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

NBA Underdogs (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 153-97 ATS L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover 

This is the first meeting between slumping Portland and their hosts the Chicago Bulls since March 17 of last season, when the Trail Blazers dominated the Bulls for a 118-98 win. Portland has been laboring a bit with injuries of late, but key offensive component Damian Lillard will play tonight as will as key defensive solution Hassan Whiteside which makes them formidable opponents for a up-trending but not quite ready for prime time Bulls team off a 116-115 win vs the Hornets last time out. Note: CHICAGO is 3-15 ATS in home games after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Trail Blazers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Central.Trail Blazers are 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 vs. Eastern Conference. 

Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Chicago

CHICAGO is 17-31 ATS  in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 18-32 ATS ( in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Bulls are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Bulls are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Northwest.Bulls are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win.Bulls are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games.Bulls are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NBA Underdogs (PORTLAND) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 53-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Portland to cover 

Minnesota lost four of its past five after starting the season 7-4, and are now banged up with significant injuries. I know Atlanta their opponents, are also not performing optimally, but with the Hawks being at home here tonight against a franchise they have had success against of lat. The Hawks have won and covered the 2 most recent meetings in this series here in Georgia. Atlanta in their two most recent home games vs Toronto and Milwaukee were competitive losing to the Raptors by 3 and to the Bucks by 8 and Im betting they will not be an easy out here tonight vs a side they matchup well against. 

Atlanta has been partaking in run and gun take no prisoners offensive basketball of late with lots of scoring. That good news for us here from a trends perspective as ATLANTA is 10-1 ATS  in home games after 6 or more consecutive overs. 

NBA team vs the money line (MINNESOTA) - poor three point shooting team (33% or less) against a poor 3PT defense ( 36.5% or better ), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 12-33  SU L/5 seasons for a  go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - poor three point shooting team (33% or less) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more), after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 17-52 SU L/23 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

The last time the Philadelphia 76ers visited the Toronto Raptors on May 12 they lost on a dramatic shot for the ages and now revenge is at hand for the Sixers who were eliminated by the Raptors last season. 

The Sixers are currently in top form and enter this game on a 4 game win streak, and will be primed to take down the Raptors. 

Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover 

Detroit is on tired legs and in now way shape or form are the ready to run and gun here tonfight.
DETROIT is 14-3 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.
Meanwhile, Orlando has proven themselves inconsistent this season, overall but the one thing they have shown consistency with is their defense first mentality. Orlando ranks 29th in offensive output, 3rd in ppg allowed and 29th in pace, and that the kind of tone this game Im betting will offer once again. 

NBA team (DETROIT) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 53-20 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (ORLANDO) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) str 29-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Clippers beat the Rockets 122-119 in Los Angeles for their fourth consecutive win last time out. That effort was exhausting, and now Im betting on the Clippers will be a in a letdown spot vs a visiting New Orleans side Im sure their underestimating. 

LA CLIPPERS are 7-20 ATS in home games off 3 or more consecutive home wins.

NEW ORLEANS is 28-15 ATS against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons. 

New Orleans has won and covered three straight on the road vs the Clippers.

NBA Road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after 3 straight wins by 6 points or less are 35-9 ATS L/23 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

The Kings have put up 100 or fewer points in three of their past four games. thanks in part to being with Bogdan Bogdanovic who injured his hip and also because of filling the spot of offensive minded D'Aron Fox with defensive specialist  Cory Joseph. The Kings because of being short handed have been depending on their top tier brand of defense to remain competitive and that will be even more prevalent here tonight against a run and gun Wizards side. This projected game plan Im betting leads to a score that fails to eclipse this total. 

Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Kings last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 overall.Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 Sunday games.Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 8-3 in Kings last 11 road games.Under is 8-3 in Kings last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Under is 37-18 in Kings last 55 vs. Eastern Conference.

Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Washington.Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Play on the UNDER 

Houston after an extended win streak have lost two in a row vs top tier competition, but will be prepared for a big bounce effort vs the Dallas Mavericks on their own home court here this afternoon!  Im betting the theory that if you can slow Harden you can beat the Rockets. What I personally believe is that Harden is a rare dynamic player that cant be consistently slowed when he is healthy and that this Rockets team is more balanced than many might think. 

HOUSTON is 20-9 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Underdogs (DALLAS) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 62-16 SU L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Road teams (DALLAS) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 14-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover 

The Grizzlies were embarrassed at home in a 114-95 setback to the injury-plagued Golden State Warriors last time out and will now have a chance at redemption vs a LA Lakers team on tired legs after  a hard fought battle in Oklahoma City last night in a 130-127 win. ( LAL Vogel is 2-12 ATS  in road games after a combined score of 235 points or more in all games he has coached. 

It must be noted thta the Lakers have a recent history of performing at a sub par level as compared to the line against sub par teams: Note:LA LAKERS are 7-18 ATS versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons and are are 9-19 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. I know the Grizzlies may not inspire bettors, but they have revenge on board to a early season loss to the Lakers and are motivated to perform after what was a pitiful effort last time out. 

NBA Home teams  (MEMPHIS) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 23-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover 

Cavaliers coach John Beilein noted Friday he's hoping a return from the club's just-completed, 0-3 trip will help turn things around. Beilein is having a hard time getting this team to perform optimally, but he is a top tier coach and will have his team ready to compete.

NBA Underdogs (CLEVELAND) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 29-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to cover

 Nothing has been coming easily for the San Antonio Spurs as they have now lost 8 straight games. So suddenly expecting them to win  tonight on the road as short favorites is far from a sure thing like some pundits might expect. The Spurs have been cash burners in this situation as favorites this season failing to cover 8 of their L/10 and are just 3-13 ATS L/16times to the hardwood. We all know how futile the Knicks can be, but they have been competitive recently winning 2 of their L/4 SU while covering 3 of those games, and 3-4 SU at home and in their L/5 games overall the ppg diff clicks in at -0.6 ppg. Advantage Knicks. 

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

The Bulls matchup well vs the Hornets and will be primed for revenge in a 126-125 loss they suffered to the Hornets earlier this season.The Hornets return home after losing the final three games of a four-game road trip, the latest a 125-118 defeat at the hands of the Washington Wizards on Friday night and continue to be fade material according to my projections in this matchup.

CHICAGO is 15-4 ATS  in road games against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons. CHICAGO is 28-14 ATS  in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 3 season

CHARLOTTE is 9-23 ATS  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.CHARLOTTE is 5-24 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 3 season.

Play on Chicago to cover 

The Clippers super star duo George and Leonard made their anticipated debut together Wednesday in a 107-104 overtime victory over the Boston Celtics and get another chance to play together tonight vs the Houston Rockets. This matchup between the Clippers and Rockets has featured some bad blood in the past as was defintely the case in their last meeting when Harden smashed  the Clippers for 47 points. That caused Westbrook to benevolently mock Beverley, with whom he has a long-running feud, since the Clippers guard was one of the primary defenders attempting to contain Harden. Revenge is on board here tonight and what Im betting will be spirited effort from the home side. 

LA CLIPPERS are 15-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. LA CLIPPERS are 30-18 ATS  revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

NBA home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread are 49-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

Denver is looking for its eighth win in nine games  behind a top tier defence. Im betting the Mile High City is not a good place to play this type of stingy physical team especially for a suddenly struggling Celtics team that  has lost two of their last three games following a 10-game winning streak.In addition to the defensive prowess, Denver has scored 100 or more points in 12 of its 13 games and must be respected as one of the key teams in the West.The last time these teams met in Denver, Jamlal Murray exploded for a career-best 48 points in a 115-107 victory on Nov. 5, 2018.

The Nuggets won both of last season's meetings and Im betting on a rinse and repeat performance here tonight. 

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

Detroit has lost 5 straight games and are desperate for a win and will be primed to perform here tonight against a Atlanta  team my power ranking suggest they matchup well against. 

Casey is 15-4 ATS L/19 in home games after 4 or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached, with the average ppg diff clicking in at 7.2 ppg. 

NBA Home teams  (DETROIT) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 42-8 SU L5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8.4. 

NBA team  (DETROIT) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days ARE 34-7 L/23 SEASONS for a 82% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +6.4 ppg.

Play on Detroit Pistons to cover 

The Suns are  off a loss last time and expected to be without [C] 11/20/2019 - Aron Baynes is downgraded to OUT Thursday vs New Orleans ( Hip )[PG] 11/20/2019 - Ricky Rubio is doubtful Thursday vs New Orleans ( Back )[C] 10/25/2019 - DeAndre Ayton is out 25 games ( Suspension ). If Rubio plays he will be less than 100%. The Suns are off a close loss last time out vs Sacramento, and are starting to look exhausted of late. Note: PHOENIX is 2-12 ATS off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons ad fade material in their current form vs a team that can run and gun with them. 

Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Pelicans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 Thursday games.

Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Phoenix.

The Suns are 0-9 ATS /SU as a favorite when they won at least 2 straight vs current opponent.

Play on New Orleans to cover 

These two teams are both struggling, but I personally see more promise with the Bulls at the moment because of their attention to better defensive play. The Detroit Pistons,  are currently on a four game losing streak while allowing opponents an average of 112.2 points. Earlier this season the Bulls wont a 112 -106 matchup as hosts and Im betting they repeat that trick again. Note: The Pistons are 0-12-1 ATS /0-13 SU L/13 as a road dog with rest off a road game when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road.

NBA Teams like Detroit  are 0-13 ATS /1-12 SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss as a road favorite after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses.

Pistons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Pistons are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss.Pistons are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Pistons are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Pistons are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Pistons are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall.Pistons are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Pistons are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Pistons are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Central.Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Pistons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Pistons are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.Pistons are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Home team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (DETROIT) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, playing with 3 or more days rest are 6-30 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DETROIT) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

Minnesota handed Utah its first home loss of the season on Monday. The Jazz  now have a quick pay back on their agenda vs the Timberwolves again Wednesday in Minneapolis. With Andrew Wiggins  downgraded to OUT Wednesday vs Utah ( Illness ) the advantage rests with the visitors in revenge mode. 

The Jazz are 13-0 ATS L/13 covering by almost 12 ppg on average on the road off a loss in a home game when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. 

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

The Raptors despite of being shorthanded  pounded Charlotte by a 132 -96 count last time out, and now Im betting on a regression to the mean for them here tonight against a up trending Orlando Magic team that has won 3 straight and 4 of their L/5 overall SU. 

Raptors are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.

NBA Teams like the Raptors  are 0-15 ATS  as a favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in a home game facing an opponent like the Magic with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5.

ORLANDO is 11-2 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.

The Magic are 10-0-1 ATS /10-1 SU L/11 on the road off a win as a home favorite when the total is at least 15 points less than their last game.

Magic are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Atlantic.Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 2 days rest.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 22-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover 

Both these teams have shown to have some very porous defences, and both sides know they need to fix that situation, and are working hard to get stops .  Wizards star guard Bradley Beal told reporters. QUOTE:We compete hard enough to win every game. We are top five in offense. We know that is not the problem. We just have to get stops." END QUOTE: Im betting tonight San Antonio trys to reverse a ugly 6 game win streak, by paying more attention to defence vs an explosive offensive side, which in turn will see a slighter slower pace than the Wizards would like to see.  

NBA Teams like the Spurs are 1-17  UNDER  as a road favorite when they are off two games in which they allowed 110+ points with the combined average score of 216.8 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 18-8 UNDER  after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.4 ppg going on the board. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 26-4 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games are 60-26 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Sacramento continues to uptrend in my power rankings and showed their toughness when they ended the 10-game winning streak of the Boston Celtics via a  100-99 victory on Sunday. Now with plenty of momentum on their sides, I like their chances of  the Kings winning tonight on home court vs a Suns team that could be without key component  the injured Ricky Rubio .If the two way star does play  he will be less than 100% which will effect his teams cohesiveness. 

SACRAMENTO is 7-0 ATS  in November games this season.SACRAMENTO is 20-9 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons and is is 12-3 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the Kings have won 3 of the L/4 meetings here at home SU in this series.

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PHOENIX) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are just 3-26 SU L/23 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 7-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 4-23 ATS L/23 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover

Sacramento has gone under in 3 straight games and have not allowed more than 99 points in any of those tilts . The Kings own the 29th ranked pace, and 28th ranked offensive output. Look for more methodical action tonight, as they look to slow down the high flying Phoenix Suns! 

Walton is 21-8 UNDER  in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 210 ppg scored. 

The Suns are 0-14 UNDER L/14 on the road when the line is within 3 of pick off a game as a favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio less than 1.5 with the verage combined score clicking in at 193.8 ppg. The Suns are 0-13 UNDER  off a loss as a favorite when they are off two games in which their opponent had double-digit steals with a combined average of 193.1 ppg scored. 

NBA Teams are 8-40-2  UNDER when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a win as a home dog facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with a combined average score of 207 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 31-10 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

 The key super star duo of George and Leonard are both supposed to be on the floor tonight against the Thunder, which makes for a over powering situation that favors the Clippers to come out of this with a convincing victory.  

LA CLIPPERS are 21-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 ATS  in home games in November games over the last 2 seasons

Donovan is 1-10 ATS (in road games after 3 consecutive non-conference games as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.

Play on the LA Clippers to cover 

Houston owns a run and gun offence that averages more than 118.5 ppg ranking 2nd in the NBA in output. The Rockets recently have also picked up their defensive play which makes them dangerous, as is evident by their current 7 game win streak. Meanwhile, Portland their opponents tonight have been highly inconsistent and has lost 6 of their L/8 overall and fade material in their current form.


HOUSTON is 30-18 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 19-9 ATS in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 15-2 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 20-9 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons.

The Rockets are 6-0-1 ATS L/7 covering by more than 7 ppg .

Play on Houston to cover

The Milwaukee Bucks will go for their fourth win in a row when they visit the Chicago Bulls on Monday night but Im betting that will not come that easily. The early market looks inefficient despite of the discrepancies in both teams current performance levels. However recency bias, is at play here giving us value on as slightly bloated line. 

The Bucks are 0-12 ATS /SU on the road off a game as a favorite in which they held their opponent to fewer than 85 points.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 32-67 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.MILWAUKEE is 70-115 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996. 

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

The Raptors were showing signs of fatigue Saturday and Pascal Siakam had an off night with 15 points on 6-for-24 shooting with five turnovers and with only one day rest in between games, I sure their still a bit exhausted. Also being without injured Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka. defence and a slower pace has been key for the Raptors and that will once again be the case tonight here  on home court as they get reacclimatized  to being on home court after an extensive 5 game road trip. Tonight Im betting the Raps will hold the Hornets to under their season ppg offensive average of 106 ppg, and for they themselves to have a limited out put because of being short handed. 

Under is 3-1-1 in Hornets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.Under is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 Monday games.Under is 5-0 in Raptors last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (TORONTO) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season are 475-337 UNDER L/23 seasons for a long term 59% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Toronto is short handed with injured Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka on the sidelines. Im betting the Raptors offensive flow will be curtailed as well as they ability to cover in a game that I also have pegged at being fairly low scoring. 

The Hornets are 9-1 ATS  L/10 on the road.

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 28-9  ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover 

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and the NY Knicks are struggling, and both are looking at this like a winnable game, and both Im betting will be primed to be aggressive here in transition which Im betting helps this combined score get over this total. Yes, I know both sides have been creating unders of late, but that wont be the case here tonight. Note: NYK L/47 home games have seen a combined average of 217.8 ppg scored.CLEVELAND in their L/44 games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 218.1 ppg scored.

Over is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Play OVER 

Washington has the 3rd best offence in the league the 28th worst D ppg allowed, and 8th fastest pace. This is almost always recipe for a high scoring back and forth tilt. Meanwhile, Orlanso has seen an uptick in their offensive outputs of late, and Im betting they will need that extra offence against a team that plays wide open run and gun ball. 

The Wizards are 19-0 OVER with less than two days rest off a road game in which they shot over 50% from the field with a combined average of 232.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

WASHINGTON is 10-1 OVER  off a road win over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 83-49 OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 The Kings are a team that must not to be overlooked, having won four of six since an 0-5 start. I know the Celtics are a public favorite but because of this we have value line with the home underdog to bet into. 

Meanwhile, the Celtics narrowly closed out a 105-100 win over the Western Conference's worst team, the Golden State Warriors, on Friday night, and looked less offensively cohesive without  Gordon Hayward who is out indefinitely.

Boston has won seven of its past eight meetings with Sacramento, but the three most recent victories have been by single digits. 

The Kings are 6-0 ATS L/6 covering more than 7 ppg.   

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 7-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play Sacramento to cover 

Kawhi Leonard and Amir Coffey are expected to miss tonight for the Clippers which will effect their flow. Meanwhile, Atlanta is also short handed with a boat load full of injuries, something that will also effect their flow, especially since they will be on tired legs playing their their 4th straight road game in west coast road trip in less than a week. 

The Clippers are 0-5 UNDER L/5 as a home favorite with a combined average of 199 ppg going on the board. 

Under is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 games following a straight up loss.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 7-2 in Clippers last 9 overall.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Indiana played last night in Houston  so they should be on tired legs, but what impresses me about this team is their never say die attitude. I mean these guys are like energizer bunnies and must never be underestimated , even against a top tier team like Milwaukee. Last night the  Pacers limited the sharp shooting Rockets to 14 of 46 (30.4 percent) from long distance and just 40.4 percent shooting overall and Im betting that can replicate those numbers again here on their own home floor in a key divisional matchup vs another strong downtown shooting team. 

Indiana is 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 meetings in this series at home. 

Bucks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Pacers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.Pacers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.

NBA team (MILWAUKEE) - off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, on Saturday games are  just 30-77 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover

Brooklyn is 1-3 on the trip and is coming off three straight losses to the Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets and in their current form fade material vs the Chicago Bulls. 

Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.

Nets are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Saturday games.Nets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.Nets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Nets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Nets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Nets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.Nets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.

The Nets are 77-238 ATS since 1995 as a road dog after playing as a road dog.

Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 

Im betting the flow of the Celtics will be tested here tonight in Golden State as they play with out .high-scoring guard Gordon Hayward who has  a broken left hand. I know the Golden State Warriors look to be a shambles right now, but Im betting they gather up some pride and make a game of this here tonight on their own home floor.

GOLDEN STATE is 23-7 ATS L/30  in home games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game.

NBA Road teams (BOSTON) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a terrible team (25% . or less) are 6-25 ATS L/23 seasons for go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State  Warriors 

The Celtics won't be at full strength for the trip out west, and for at least a month after that, with the loss of high-scoring guard Gordon Hayward to a broken left hand earlier in the week. Im betting this will hamper the offensive flow of the Celtics and they will take a more defensive, stance for a while to compensate for their offensive loss. Tonight because of this Im betting this Total is slightly bloated with the value towards the under. BOSTON i in 13 road games    after 6 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined score of 216.1 ppg.

These teams have gone under in the L/4 meetings. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - a very good team (7 or better  PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more are 33-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BOSTON) - a very good team (7  or better PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Washington enters this game ranked 8th in pace in the league 8th in ppg(115.6) , and 28th in ppg allowed(120). Meanwhile, Minnesota is ranked 5th in pace, 4th in offensive output (117.2), and 25th in ppg allowed(116.2). Its obvious both sides run and gun with reckless abandon, while exhibiting an inability or disinterest in playing D. It is what it is. A far is this total is concerned, and how high it might seem, you have to remember this is the new NBA , and totals like this will show up more and more often as the league continues its quest to entertain the public. There can be under value with bloated totals, but this one not one of them. 

WASHINGTON is 9-1 OVER  versus good foul drawing teams - attempting 27 or more  free throws/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 244.6 ppg scored.

MINNESOTA is 11-2 OVER against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Wolves average 119.2 ppg and opposition  average 114.7 ppg. Based on a aggregate output system I use, 3-6 . points per team is projected above these numbers making this a viable over situation based on past performance trends and current form.

Play OVER 

After an impressive win  by 102-93 win against the Los Angeles Clippers , Im now sold on the Rockets as a two team. My power rankings make the Rockets a 7 point fav here so we have value on this line. HOUSTON is 14-2 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (INDIANA) - hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 47% or better  of their shots against opponent after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 19-79 L/ 5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in -9.2  ppg. 

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 8-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to cover 

Charlotte is on a four-game losing streak, while the Pistons have dropped three games in a row. Both are obviously not performing optimally and both are desperate for wins. With that said, Im betting on a hard fought game here tonight thus getting points with the home dog is viable wagering opportunity.CHARLOTTE is 17-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. 

Charlotte has won 6 of the L/7 meetings in this series SU. 

NBA team  (DETROIT) - after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are just 32-73 U L/23  seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

Orlando are No.1 in ppg allowed in the NBA behind the 30th ranked pace. San Antonio is currently struggling and Im sure the Magic game plan will be to further take them out of their game with a suffocating physical effort which Im betting will contribute to a lower scoring affair.

ORLANDO is 27-15 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 209.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season ARE 39-14 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Phoenix is 8th in pace in the NBA and 6th in offensive output,(116.6) and will push all comers into speeding up their game, and opening up or be blown off the court. That is exactly the situation we have here tonight as Atlanta visits in their 3rd  western road game in 5 nights. Run and gun until the clock tips in at zero. The two most recent meetings between these teams last season saw 230 and 232 combined points cored.

Atlanta has gone over in 3 straight games with the combined score of 237.7 ppg scored. Suns have gone over in 4 straight with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored.

ATLANTA is 12-2 OVER after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 249.3 ppg going on the board. 

PHOENIX is 15-4 OVER after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 232.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHOENIX) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 25-3 OVER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Dallas has revenge on board for a 106-102 loss at home back in November, and Im betting we see them at their best here in the rematch vs a NYK side that ha lost 6 of their L/7 SU overall and 9 of their L/11. 

NEW YORK is 9-23 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -12.9 ppg.

Carlisle is 21-9 ATS  as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of DALLAS with the average ppg diff registering at +11.9 ppg.The Mavericks are 12-2 ATS L/14 on the road.

NBA Road teams (DALLAS) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 PPG or less  differential), after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games are 39-9 ATS L/23 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover 

Cleveland after a slow start to their season have won 2 of their L/3 with the one loss coming to the 76ers by just 1 points. In their current form they are viable underdogs on their own floor here against a Miami team that maybe flashing slightly bloated recency bias favorite status. 

Cavs are 7-2-1 ATS L/10 overall.

NBA Road teams  (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 10-41 SU L/5 seasons for a less than 20% win ratio. 

NBA favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 30-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavs to cover 

The Lakers played a aggressive game vs the Suns last night in a big win, that saw the team spread the ball around . Note: The Lakers are 0-14 L/14 UNDER at home after a game as a road favorite in which they had 6+ double digit scorers with a combined average of 193.3 ppg going on the board. Now on tired legs I look for a regression tonight, and for this contest vs the Golden State Warriors to end up on the lower side of the total. 

LA LAKERS are 10-1 UNDER in home games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.5 ppg scored and are are 11-2 UNDER  in home games versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 208.1 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - a top-level team ( 75% or better) playing a terrible team (25% or worse ) are 24-5 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

San Antonio looked asleep at the wheel last time out vs Memphis and lost as DD chalk. Now after that embarrassing effort Im betting on this talented but inconsistent team to step up their game against a Minnesota team that is playing at a high level, but due for regression after some hard fought affairs over a short period of time. 

SAN ANTONIO is 21-8 ATS  off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 points or more

San Antonio owns an 89-30 all-time series lead on the Timberwolves. The Spurs have won the season series against Minnesota 22 times in 30 seasons, including the last six.

SAN ANTONIO is 22-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams (SAN ANTONIO) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, in November games are 49-20 ATS L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

This will be a back to back for the Sixers and their 3rd game and 4 nights and  they will now be on tired legs vs a up trending Orlando team that is slowly getting back into a culture of winning.  Advantage Orlando. 

PHILADELPHIA is 11-25 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off 2 no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite are just 7-24 L/23 seasons for a 75% SU conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover

Sacramento is playing pretty good ball of late,  and are well rested, but an injury to starting point guard, De'Aaron Fox has caused what Im betting is an over reaction on the line giving us value with the home dog. Im betting veteran backup Cory Joseph will do just fine filling in tonight and give the Kings an opportunity for a win and more importantly cover  for the 4th time in their L/5 games. 

SACRAMENTO is 20-9 ATS  as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Note: NBA Teams are 0-12 ATS /SU as a road dog off a win as a favorite in which they had overtime (Portland ended a 4 game losing streak with a OT win vs Atlanta last time out)

The Kings are 18-1 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win as a favorite when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent.

Play on the Sacramento Kings 

The Nets enter this road game against the Jazz having covered at a 15-6 ATS rate  in their last 21 vs. Western Conference and are  13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Jazz on tired legs after playing last night and are vulnerable here vs this type of uptempo side.

BROOKLYN is 27-12 ATS  in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts over the last 3 seasons

The Nets are 23-3-1 ATS L/27 on the road with less than two days rest off a game as a dog when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent.

NBA Teams like the Jazz  are 0-14 ATS L/14 with less than two days rest off a win in which they had at least 5 turnovers less than their season-to-date average.

NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - in non-conference games, off a road win by 10 points or more are 44-85 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

Oklahoma City is thundering into top form offensively of late, and as result of their decent Fg conversion rate and uptick in pace have scored 112, 1114, and 119 respectively, with all three going over as their D gets looser allowing 121, 108 , and 121 points. Tonight Im betting on that current form to continue which will force a capable Indiana side  that is in top form to push forward offensively and upping their pace and  gaining on a recent output of 120, 121, 112, 109 points  in their L/4 with 3 of those 4 games eclipsing the total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 40-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Indiana has been playing some very good basketball of late, winning, 6 of their L/7 games, but are now on tired legs and prepare to play their 5th game in 8 days. With Oklahoma City beginning to score on a more consistent rate of late, are viable opponents here on this line.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Teams like the Pacers are 1-18-1 ATS L/20 (2-18 SU) with less than two days rest off a win as a dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end. 

NBA Teams are 1-14 ATS /SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick off a win in a road game in which they had 30+ assists.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 

  The Jazz are off a hard fought battle vs Milwaukee last time out(103-100), and subsequent win, and will be in a bit of an emotional letdown state here in Golden State , which Im betting sees them set an even slower pace than usual ( Utah ranks 1st in pace in the NBA). The Jazz are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12  since Apr 20, 2019 going under by more than 17 ppg, with the average combined score clicking in at 198.1 ppg, with none of the games, eclipsing this current listed total. Also The Jazz are  0-5 L/5 UNDER  on the road with a combined average of 193.4 ppg going on the board. 

Meanwhile Golden State prepares to play their 4th game in 6 nights, which includes 3 straight road games,  and will now also be on tired legs and happy to also set a slower pace.

UTAH is 16-4 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 209.4 ppg.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 45-19 UNDER L/5seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games are 36-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

The Utah Jazz enter this game off a big home win vs the Milwaukee Bucks last time out, and Im betting they will now be in a letdown situation. I know Golden State is also in a funk, and on tired legs , but in a game that will be fairly slow paced and quite probably lower scoring, a 9 point spread for advantage players looks like a viable investment option.The Jazz are 0-4 ATS /1-3 SU L/4 on the road.the lone win came by a 1 point margin vs the Suns. 

NBA Road teams (UTAH) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 41% or less on the season, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 38-83 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover 

Boston enters this game of an upset underdog win on the road vs the San Antonio Spurs last time out by a 135-115 count  for their 7th straight win. They are currently in top form and a tough opponent for any team whether it is at home or on the road . Note: BOSTON is 13-2 ATS  off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA Home favorites  (BOSTON) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 31-1 SU L/23 seasons with  a + 13.7 ppg diff. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

Minnesota lost in a hard fought OT  game last night to Denver and will now be on tired legs and a letdown spot. Advantage Detroit Pistons with  two days rest. 

Favorite is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.Timberwolves are 0-8 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Detroit.

The Pistons are 11-0 ATS /SU when they won 4+ straight meetings vs current opponent.

The Timberwolves are 0-10 ATS SU  as a dog after they scored fewer than 10 fast break points last game.

Play on Detroit to cover 

The defending champion Toronto Raptors take on the   Lakers in Los Angeles on Sunday short handed with injuries. Two of their top performers went down with injuries in the club's win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday.Guard Kyle Lowry, the Raptors' second-leading scorer at 21.8 points per game, sustained a fracture in his left thumb in the first quarter, and forward Serge Ibaka went down with a severe right ankle sprain in the second quarter. Considering this , Im betting their flow will be disrupted, and knowing that they cant run and gun with the explosive Lakers tonight, a more defensive physical posture will be implemented by the coaching staff which will help keep this tilt on the lower side of this total. 

NBA team (LA LAKERS/TORONTO) - in a game involving two top-level teams ( 75% or better), on Sunday games are 40-14 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Nuggets' looked impressive last time out vs a top tier  Philadelphia 76ers club. They came back in  spectacular fashion as they erased a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to take a 100-97 victory and improve to 6-2 for the season.This is a top quality team that matches up very well vs a up trending but not quite ready prime time Minnesota side. 

Nuggets are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 vs. NBA Northwest. Nuggets are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 vs. NBA Northwest. Nuggets are 21-5-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings in Minnesota.

Timberwolves are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Timberwolves are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Timberwolves are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Timberwolves are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Timberwolves are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Timberwolves are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.Timberwolves are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.Timberwolves are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover 

New Orleans is off a loss last night against the Toronto Raptors and will not be in any shape to play defence, tonight against the Hornets something thats been an issue for them all season long, as they allow the worst ppf average in the league ( 124 ppg) behind the 5th best offence ( 117.4 ppg) and 3rd ranked pace. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks 23rd in ppg, allowed and 24th in defensive rating and will have to open here tonight against this type of wide open team if they hope to notch a win. Note: The Pelicans are 16-0-1 OVER L/17 with less than two days rest coming off a loss with the average combined score clicking in at 250.1 ppg. Every game during this extensive trend run have all eclipsed the current high total. NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 OVER  in road games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 240 ppg scored. Over is 11-5 in Pelicans last 16 games playing on 0 days rest.ver is 4-0 in Hornets last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.

Play OVER 

 Reigning NBA Most Valuable Player Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks visit Salt Lake City to take on Utah tonight. The public is loving the Bucks, but are greatly underestimating the tenacity of the Jazz, against a team on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 nights on the road and in the high altitude of Salt Lake city. Advantage Utah. Take the points.

NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MILWAUKEE) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 26-5 SU L/23 seasons for a 84% conversion rate .

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 4-22 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

The Toronto Raptors and the New Orleans Pelicans opened the season against each other nearly three weeks ago.with the Raptors taking a  130-122 victory  in overtime . Since than both have taken part in some high scoring games  which in some ways is skewing this total to the high side, which offers value for under bettors such as ourselves. ( It it was not for OT the above mentioned tilt would have stayed under the total)

 Gentry is 36-19 OVER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of NEW ORLEANs with a combined average of 219.1 ppg scored. 

The Raptors have not eclipsed the total in their L/7 as a road favorite with a combined average of 207.5 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 50-9 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The desperate  Orlando Magic return home to Amway Center on Friday looking to end a four-game losing streak vs a Memphis side that they matchup well against.ORLANDO is 9-1 ATS  when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +15.8 ppg. 

The Magic are 9-0 SU/ 7-2 ATS  L/9 as a home favorite.

Play on the Magic to cover 

The Spurs have dropped three of their past four, including Tuesday's 108-100 setback in Atlanta and because of this we have a decent recency bias to bet into here with the desperate home chalk. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City have won two in a row and getting some media accolades on a small sample size. Truth is at least from my perspective , is that despite of the Thunders hard work and recent positive results, thye are still over matched here according to my power rankings which take into account variables  media polling numbers don't such as matchup discrepancies based on systems. With that said, Im betting on the Spurs to come out here with a top tier effort on their way to a win and cover for the 5th straight time at home in this series.Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

SAN ANTONIO is 17-5 ATS  in home games against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Donovan is 8-22 ATS  in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY. 

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread are 48-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Antonio to cover 

Boston is off a 119-113 win vs Cleveland last time out, in a high shooting percentage tilt for the Celtics. Note: BOSTON is 12-23 ATS after a combined score of 225 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Stevens is 5-16 ATS  after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better as the coach of BOSTON. Meanwhile, Charlotte has won 3 straight , and are more than capable of hanging tough against a Celtics side playing their 3rd straight road game in 5 nights and on tired legs. 

NBA Favorites (BOSTON) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 78-125 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Charlotte to cover (LATE STEAM)

The Jazz have lost two straight both on the road, but still look lie a formidable NBA team, and now on two days rest  will be prepared to bounce back here on home court vs a Philadelphia 76ers group playing their 3rd  road game in 5 nights , Note: Jazz are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up loss.

The Jazz are also 12-0 ATS/SU at home off a road game in which their opponent shot under 40% from the field and  are 7-0 ATS /SU when the line is within 3 of pick off a 10+ loss as a road dog facing an opponent averaging more than 7 refereed turnovers per game.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (UTAH) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, playing with 2 days rest are 48-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Utah Jazz to cover 

According to my power rankings the Toronto Raptors matchup well vs the Sacramento Kings , and with the added home court advantage look like very viable favorites here tonight. 

Torontos SRS: ranks 9th in the NBA ( 4.98) vs Sacramento's 27th ranking ( -7.52). SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Advantage Raptors 

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - excellent free throw shooting team (79%or better) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), poor ball handling team (16.5 or more  TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 25-2 SU 23 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.9 ppg which makes this a via-able ATS situation. 

Toronto Raptors to cover 

Indiana is exhausted as they prepare to play their 3rd game in 4 nights, and are off a 122-120 OT loss in Memphis last night. Tonight playing defence could easily become an issue on tired legs  in a game I have pegged to be a wide open affair vs a Washington side, that is ranked 26th in ppg allowed on  D, and 5th in ppg on offence and 8th in pace. 

Over is 6-0 in Wizards last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 8-1 in Wizards last 9 vs. NBA Central.

Over is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.Over is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.

WASHINGTON is 30-16 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.9 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

Los Angeles has reeled off five straight victories since dropping the season opener against their intra-city rival Los Angeles Clippers behind super stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis and Im betting will have an above average output offensively today vs a struggling Chicago Bulls team allowing an average of 110.3 ppg. Meanwhile, LAL has been allowing 108 ppg on the road this season, and tonight I look for the chasing Bulls to aggressively open up to keep track on the scoreboard, which will result in combined score that eclipses this total. 

Play OVER 

Milwaukee might be the public darling here but from a matchup perspective Minnesota is being highly under rated.(The Timberwolves will once again be without their star center Towns when they host Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday) But this is a team that plays deeper and more systematically than past versions of the Wolves and can withstand his absence as was evident when they took out the Washington Wizards last time out. With Milwaukee off a hard fought emotional win vs the Raptors last time out, Im betting they are more vulnerable here than the linesmakers and public might anticipate. 

Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Timberwolves are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

NBA Favorites (MILWAUKEE) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 71-118 L/23 seasons for a go against  63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover 

The Wizards enter this game against the Pistons having lost three straight while giving up an average of 138 points. Washington is ranked 28th in ppg allowed, and 3rd and pace and 7th in offence. The Wizards come at you in run and gun fashion, and essentially force you into opening up. Meanwhile, the Detroit Pistons are currently ranked 21st in ppg allowed, and 24th in defensive efficiency, and if they are going to win they have to up their17th ranked pace here tonight in a game I have pegged to fly over the total. 

Over is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 road games.Over is 7-1 in Pistons last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 7-3 in Pistons last 10 overall.

Over is 6-0 in Wizards last 6 home games.Over is 8-0 in Wizards last 8 vs. NBA Central.Over is 8-1 in Wizards last 9 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Over is 7-2 in Wizards last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Over is 21-7 in Wizards last 28 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 17-6 in Wizards last 23 games following a straight up loss.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 25-2 OVER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 Utah has the best D in the league so far this season ranking No.1 in ppg allowed at 94 ppg, and rank 28th in pace and 27th in ppg scored at 101. Its obvious what their formula for success is and Im betting on nothing changing tonight . Meanwhile, we all know about the Clippers and super star Kawhi Leonard, but Utah can slow down the most potent of teams , and isolate them in transition , which Im betting will be the case again tonight. With that said, Im betting a combined score that fails to eclipse this total. 

Utahs L/9 games dating back to last season, have gone under the total with the combined average score of 196.2 ppg going on the board.

NBA team (UTAH/LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), first half of the season are 102-47 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 36-12 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 84-44 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Jazz are a team that matches up well against a side like the Clippers and already proved it once this season, in a 110-96 victory vs the Clippers on Oct. 30 in Utah. I know Kawhi Leonard was out that night because of load management , but despite of  the super stars huge efforts this season, could find the going tough vs a team that knows how to control pace and muck things up which effects opposition flow. According to SRS equations, the Jazz are the superior team at this point on the season. Utah 6:25 SRS ranked 7th in the league vs Clippers 5.21 SRS, ranked 9th in the league. ( SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule.)

Jazz are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in L.A..Jazz are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

UTAH is 23-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.( Utah lost a 102-101 decision to the  Sacramento Kings on Nov.1 and now with some rest should be ready to rebound)

NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against a good 3PT defense (33% or less), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 7-27 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Two teams that are struggling to start their season go head to head tonight .Both  entered Saturday tied for 27th in the NBA in assists per game (19.3). The Sacramento Kings issues have predicated on their lack of scoring consistency from downtown and at the charity stripe. Meanwhile, the Knicks the Kings hosts tonight, are ranked 28th in ppg on offence, and 27th slowest in pace, and depend on a hardcore work ethic to try to stay competitive. Both teams current structural inconsistencies make for a rocky flow, and Im betting tonight that will translate into a lower scoring affair that will not eclipse this total.

The Knicks have gone under in 8 of their L/9 dating back to last season, with a combined average score of 206.9 ppg scored, and have gone under 4 straight times at home, with the with a combined average of 210.7 ppg scored.

NEW YORK is 15-4 UNDER  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.5 ppg going on the board.NEW YORK is 13-4 UNDER  when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 season with a combined average of 212.1 ppg. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SACRAMENTO) - pathetic team - shooting 43% or less with a defense of 46% or better on the season, poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game are 28-8 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Joel Embiid is expected to miss tonight game for Philadelphia because of suspension, but the way the Sixers are built that wont slow down their offense or pace here this evening. Note: The Sixers are ranked 3rd in PACE this season (107.0). Also PORTLAND in their L/41 games  when the total is 210 to 222 over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 233 ppg go on the board. Full steam ahead here in a game I have pegged to eclipse the total.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 OVER  after a game outrebounding opponent by 20 or more over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 232.7 ppg scored.

NBA  team (PORTLAND) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 43%or less on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 113-62 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The Nets enter this game against the Pistons off a hard fought win vs the Houston Rockets last night. The Nets hosts tonight the Pistons also played last night in a loss, but the difference maker for this matchup comes via home court advantage and slightly fresher legs of the Pistons, vs a Nets team playing their 3rd game in 3 nights.Note: Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are just 66-131 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Dating back 5 seasons, teams like the Brooklyn Nets with a line between 3 to -3 off no rest & won their previous game as a dog by a margin less then 30 pts against an opponent who had 50 or more points in the paint are 0-23 ATS/ SU.

Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover 

The Pelicans are off an upset win last time out vs Denver by a 122-107 count as 4 point home dogs. Note: NEW ORLEANS is 2-15 ATS L/17 off an upset win by 15 points or more as a home underdog . The Pelicans have been running a full throttle take no prisoners game plan so far this season, and after that draining effort last time out Im looking for a regressionary effort today in Oklahoma City.

Pelicans are also  0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Meanwhile, the well rested Thunder are off a 102-99 loss last time out to Portland, but have bounced back well in the recent  past positing a  4-0 ATS record  in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.

Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Thunder are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 2 days rest.

We also have a interesting NBA trend anomaly attached to this tilt that favors the Thunder: NBA Home favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - poor ball handling team - committing 16 or more turnovers/game, on Saturday games are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

The Lakers are full of veteran talent, but  they are a little banged up right now with key cog Anthony Davis at less than 100% with a nagging shoulder injury. Dallas meanwhile, despite of being young is healthy right now and deserve respect on their own home court. 

The Lakers  dating back to last season are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.

Mavericks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Lakers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Dallas.

Play on Dallas to cover 

Houston and the Washington Wizards set a record with 317 combined points in a tilt that was decided by one point as the Rockets snatched  a 159-158 win in that game. Im now expecting some regression on the part of the Rockets, after that energy draining effort. There are also some troubling numbers attached to the Rockets last effort most notably being that they  allowed Washington to shoot 62.6 percent from the floor. Look for Kyrie Irving and company to thrive in this spot play. 

HOUSTON is 6-16 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons.

Brooklyn has win and covered 3 of the L/4 meetings in this series. Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. 

Rockets are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.Underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings

Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.Nets are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. Western Conference.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - off 2 no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite are 7-23 L/23 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Favorites (HOUSTON) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 66-111 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

Take the points with Brooklyn to cover 

The Milwaukee matchup is the middle game of a set of three in four nights at Orlando. Im betting the Bucks tired legs play an integral part in us getting a cover here tonight with the home dog. 

Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Bucks are 4-9-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Orlando

NBA team (MILWAUKEE) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%), good ball handling team (14.5  or less TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 11-35 ATS  L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orlando Magic to cover 

Cleveland took out the  Chicago Bulls 117-111 this past Wednesday. The win marked Cleveland's third consecutive game with an uptick in its scoring, from 85 in the opener to 110 vs. Indiana then 112 in a loss at the Milwaukee Bucks. There is upward offensive momentum at play here tonight in my over call on this tilt.  Meanwhile, Indiana (1-3) concluded a three-game road swing on Wednesday, scoring its first win of the 2019-20 season, 118-108 at the Brooklyn Nets. Both sides have shown slower paces so far this season, but their defensive weaknesses , and current uptrends offensively make this a solid over wager. 

The Cavaliers are 7-2 OVER as a road dog with a combined average of 228.2 ppg scored.

Anomaly or not its interesting to note that CLEVELAND is 9-1 OVER  in road games on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.with a combined average of 231.2 ppg scored.

San Antonio has been off since beating the visiting Portland Trail Blazers on Monday to improve to 3-0 and are very fresh for this tilt vs the Clippers and should be very ready to press the action vs a LA Clippers side they matchup well against. With a rested Kawhi Leonard in the Clippers lineup they will also be ready to reciprocate in a what Im betting will be a run and gun affair. 

The L/3 meetings here in LA have all eclipsed the total.

LA CLIPPERS are 19-6 OVER  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of those 25 games clicking in at 236.6 ppg. 

SAN ANTONIO is 14-3 OVER  in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 239.4 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

The Jazz according to my own ratings should be -5 favs here against the public leaning Clippers. Hey I know the Clippers have the best player in the league Kawhi Leonard in their their lineup and their currently playing very good hoops, but Utah is no pushover. Utah has the second-lowest opponent expected eFG% in the league and their  defense is tops in the league  allowing just 92 points per 100 possessions. The Clippers are 24th on D under the same parameters. With that said, Im going directly against the public and the Clippers and agreeing with the market forces that suggest Utah has an edge.

Utah is 3-0 SU L/3 at home in this series.

NBA Favorites (UTAH) - up-tempo team averaging from last season 83 or more shots/game, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 106-61 ATS L/23 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

Kyrie Irving is playing at an extremely high level right of the game this season for his new team the  Brooklyn Nets. However, I am expecting a natural letdown regression offensively , and for the Nets nasty defensive play to burden them against a Indiana side  that are capable of busting out of an early season scoring slump. It must be noted that despite of Kyrie Irving circus the Nets needed a late  Irving's  3-pointer  Friday after blowing a 19-point lead. Two days later, the Nets held an eight-point lead with three minutes remaining and gave up a 10-2 run that forced overtime. The 1-2 Nets are down trending and may not be the solid bet the public thinks they are tonight. 

BROOKLYN is 4-14 ATS  in home games against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Indiana is 3-0 SU l/3 visits to Brooklyn. 

NBA team (INDIANA) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 6 or more of their last 8 games are 41-16 ATS L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover 

We have a huge talent disparity here in this game featuring Memphis and the LA Lakers and Im betting the rebuilding Grizzlies output will be muted, and their over all game plan will be a more  conservative one , than they have shown so far this season, knowing what they are up against. With that said, Im betting we have a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. Note : It must also be noted that there seems to be a concerted effort from the Lakers to be a all around team this season.

LAL are ranked 3rd in ppg allowed this season, and 20th in offence, behind the 28th ranked pace. 

The Lakers are 2-7 L/9 as a home favorite with the average combined score clicking in at 214.2 ppg.

LA LAKERS are 21-7 UNDER  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 29-5 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Utah is a defence first team with a blue collar attitude, and Im betting that will be on full display here this evening in Phoenix. Its early in the season but the Jazz are ranked first in defence allowing 90.3 ppg and are ranked 27th on offence, but the tell tale tape shows them methodically operating with a 28th ranked pace, which is in part indicative of their on court  conservative philosophical mindset. Meanwhile, the Suns are ranked 12th in ppg allowed and 14th in pace and should be on tired legs and in a regressionary offensive mode, after taking part in consecutive hard fought back  forth affairs vs Denver and the LA Clippers.Add to that both teams are playing their 4th game in 6 nights and are certainly on tired legs which in turn will also effect the pace and output of this tilt to the low side of the totals number. 

Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 overall.Under is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 vs. Western Conference.Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Jazz last 10 Monday games.Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-3 in Jazz last 12 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 5-2 in Jazz last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 5-2 in Jazz last 7 games following a straight up win.

Under is 5-1 in Suns last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games following a straight up win. .Under is 16-5 in Suns last 21 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 6-2 in Suns last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Phoenix.

PHOENIX is 9-1 UNDER  in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.3 ppg.

UTAH is 31-13 UNDER  after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.5 ppg going on the score board. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 27-4 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 130 points or more are 36-12 UNDER 23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Jazz made a season-high 18 3-pointers and tied a franchise record with 13 threes in the first half while routing Sacramento 113-81 on Saturday, in a top tier two way game. Defence remains the mainstay of the Jazz success behind two-time reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert and here tonight Im betting their top tier D will be the difference maker as they march to a conclusive win vs a exhausted Suns team that will play their 3rd game in 4 nights and that they matchup well against .Utah has taken the last seven meetings by an average of 24.1 points and one more conclusive win is on tonights agenda. 

Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - off an home win scoring 110 or more points, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 10-34 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

After the five-time defending Western Conference champion Warriors were hammered at home by the Clippers 141-122 in the season opener, Golden State coach Steve Kerr said the performance was not "a one-off." Quote:"This is the reality," Kerr said. "There's going to be nights like this this year."End Quote: And the next night like that came at Oklahoma City on Sunday as the Thunder led by as many as 41 points in rolling to a 120-92 victory.

With the league now wanting to take advantage of a great franchise that took great joy and pounding opponents mercilessly over the last few years payback by their opponents is now at hand. 

Both these teams are still without a win this season, but New Orleans according to my projections has an edge here at home laying the short lumber.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 34-3 SU L/23 seasons with the combined average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4 ppg.

Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover 

Kyrie Irving is fitting in well to his new home in Brooklyn  and followed up a top tier  50-point performance in his season debut by highlighting a late surge in the fourth quarter of Brooklyn's 113-109 win versus the New York Knicks on Friday night. According to my early season projections, Irving and the Nets matchup well here vs Memphis and are viable road favorites of 5 points or less.

MEMPHIS is 21-39 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.BROOKLYN is 53-32 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons .

Nets are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Memphis. Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Southwest.

Play on the Brooklyn Nets to cover 

The Warriors (0-1) and Thunder (0-2) are both still looking for their first wins. Golden State  lost  a 141-122 confrontation to the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma took season-opening losses at Utah and at home against Washington . Both rosters are vastly different from last season, but after watching some of key action from these games, I like the Thunder a little more at this point of the season, and believe they have an edge here on on home court this afternoon. 

The Warriors are 0-5 ATS L/5 as a favorite. Warriors are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

NBA Home teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 28-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. 

Play on Oklahoma City to cover 

The Suns will play host to the Clippers on Saturday in their second game without key starter  Ayton, and will miss his point production, but overall, this Im betting helps their defence. Ayton has never been known for his defensive play and is also known as a defensive liability.  Add to that the Suns, played last night and will be on tired legs after they lost l in OT by a 108-107 count in the high altitude of  Denver which in itself is exhausting .  So here in LA this evening, Im looking for a tempered effort from the Suns, against what is an explosive Clippers team. This Im betting leads to a much lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers expect. Note: HC Williams in 213 career games when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached has seen a combined average of 192.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Last time out Philadelphia showed their defensive abilities when they limited Boston  to 36.7 percent shooting overall and 26.9 percent from 3-point range, and are more than capable of a shut down performance here vs Detroit on the road . Meanwhile the Motown Pistons, are off dropping their home opener to Atlanta 117-100 as chalk. There was a lack of good defence, and offence in that tilt, and HC Casey was particularly unhappy with the Pistons D, and tonight Im betting he sets out to correct that. QUOTE:"Our defense (Thursday) was porous and you put that along with bad shooting in the second half, that's a bad recipe," coach Dwane Casey said. END QUOTE.

DETROIT is 17-6 UNDER off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons are with a combined average of 209.1 ppg scored. 

76ers- Joel Embiid is "?" Saturday vs Detroit ( Ankle )

Pistons -Blake Griffin is out indefinitely ( Hamstring )

Play on the UNDER 

Butler, Miami's biggest offseason acquisition, missed Wednesday's season-opening win for the birth of his daughter and will miss Saturday's game against the Bucks and as a result  will effectively curtail the Heats offensive output. The Heats L/7 road games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 216 ppg go on the board.

The Heats usual motus operandi is based on playing staunch D which will be in effect here, vs the explosive Milwaukee Bucks.

Long term historical trend: MIAMI is 563-469 L/1031 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined average of 189.1 ppg scored over a very extensive period of time.MIAMI is 103-74 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points with a combined average of 186.8 ppg going on the board.

Play on the UNDER 

This is the NBAs version of the battle of NY, and it should be a good one, between the revamped NY Knicks and the up trending Brooklyn Nets. With Brooklyn off a heart breaking 127-126 OT loss last time out, Im betting they will be less energetic than the Knicks and easily suffering an emotional letdown. What Im betting here is the Knicks will play with passion and will not go down without a fight and advantageous line.

Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover 

Both Minnesota and Charlotte are coming off one point victories in their first games of the season.Minnesota won 127-126 in overtime against the Brooklyn Nets in New York while, the Hornets overcame a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit Wednesday in a 126-125 victory against the visiting Chicago Bulls. Im betting the Wolves game was more strenuous than the Hornets game, and they will be fresher and ready to compete here on their own home floor as underdogs. Note:MINNESOTA is 3-14 ATS  in road games after a combined score of 235 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Charlotte is 2-0 in the 2 most recent games here and 12-3 SU  L/15 as a host in this series and get my support to cover in this spot play.

Play on Charlotte to cover 

Both teams will take the court with revenge motivation: the Clippers on an opponent that ended their season last April; the Warriors on Leonard, who denied Golden State a three-peat while leading the Toronto Raptors to the championship in June. With that said,Im expecting a spirited back and forth game with a boatload full of points going on the board. 

 Over is 7-2 L/9 meetings at Golden State.

Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 games following a ATS win.Over is 10-1 in Clippers last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 6-2 in Clippers last 8 games following a straight up win.Over is 5-2 in Clippers last 7 road games.Over is 12-5 in Clippers last 17 Thursday games.Over is 14-6 in Clippers last 20 overall.Over is 13-6 in Clippers last 19 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games following a straight up win.Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games following a ATS win.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 overall.Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 /WARRIORS (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, vs. division opponents are 28-13 OVER L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

The Suns HC Williams has implemented a "no-stick" offensive philosophy that asks players to pass, dribble or shoot in five-tenths of a second. Rubio, Booker, Saric, re-signed free agent Kelly Oubre Jr. and Ayton are the expected starters , as he has the type of lineup that can implement his philosophy fully. I know how bad the Suns have been over the last few seasons, but Im betting on them to up trend. Tonight against a Sacramento Kings side, that is just 1-3 in their L/4 visits here Im siding with the Suns to get us the cover. 

Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.Underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Play on the Phoenix suns to cover