Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-04-18 | Thunder -1 v. Clippers | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
Los Angeles is playing some very good hoops at the moment as they go for their seventh win in the last eight tilts when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday night. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is also playing well with seven victories in the last nine outings. However, In game that is essentially a pickem, my own power rankings suggest in a head to head , and player to player and system vs system analysis , that the Thunder are the superior overall team and have a better than 55% chance of coming out as the victorious side. SF Paul George scored 42 points in 42 minutes when the Thunder took a 120-111 home victory over the Clippers on Nov. 10 and is averaging 26.4 points on 44-of-75 shooting over his last five contests . With that said, I'm betting George will once again be the key catalyst for what I expect will be Thunder success in this meeting. Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.( last night the Thunder beat LAL 133-96) Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Thunder are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play on Oklahoma City to cover |
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01-04-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 230.5 | 124-114 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
The Rockets did well without the injured super star James Harden last night in a 116-98 win vs a downtrodden group in the Orlando Magic. Tonight, however, on tired legs I'm betting their offense will be muted , vs a much better and under rated defensive side , that is ranked 5th in defensive efficiency in the league . With that said, I'm expecting the Rockets to take a much more conservative approach to this confrontation, vs the explosive Warriors than they usually would because of being short handed which will result in a slower paced game then expected. The Rockets are also no pushovers on defense as their efficiency ranking is 10th overall in the league and will be primed to play physical ball. Note:Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams... it is based on points allowed per 100 possessions. Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Under is 6-1 in Rockets last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Houston. The last meeting between these teams was high scoring ,a 122-121 shootout win for the Rockets as road dogs but 5 of the L/6 overall have stayed under the total . I'm expecting for these sides to revert back to those types of confrontations tonight. NBA team (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games are 28-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for totals bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-03-18 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Jazz | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
I don't often watch complete NBA games, but rather , just go through all the action in fast form replays every morning, so I can get a better grip on emotions and energy levels, when I attach all the pertinent stats and power rankings / projections to a matchup vs the line. After all sports are played by humans and not robots. So for me its important to see and gage with my own eyes what is exactly going on in a matchup. With that said, for whatever reason, I ended watching big chunks of a previous matchup featuring tonight's combatants, the New Orleans Pelicans and Utah Jazz ( played on Dec 1). What I took from that game, and stood out to me was how the Pelicans Anthony Davis seemed to own the Jazz, he looked extremely confident and his team could feel his energy and they played off of it, leading for 3 quarters before Davis injured his hamstring. After Davis exited the Jazz took over and won 114-108. With Davis healthy and expected to play tonight I expect he and his side kick Cousins to come out here looking for revenge. Add to that some embarrassing collapses in recent tilts for the well rested Pelicans and I'm betting we see them at their best tonight, and as you can see from the line , the books agree with my assessments. UTAH is 4-12 ATS L/16 after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. Pelicans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UTAH) - after a close win by 3 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 19-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 69% for bettors NBA .teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a close win by 3 points or less are 50-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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01-03-18 | Raptors v. Bulls +5.5 | 124-115 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
The Bulls after a slow start to their campaign, have really come together as a team, and must be respected here vs the Toronto Raptors as home dogs. The Bulls have covered 16 of their L/21 overall and are 8-2 ATS L/10 vs an above .500 team like the Raptors, and 7-1 ATS L/8 home games. I'm recommending we take the points here with the home dog. Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Central.Raptors are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Chicago. CHICAGO is 12-4 ATS L/16 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season and is 18-8 ATS l/26 versus top tier teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent this season. NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games are 20-47 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors. Play on the Chicago Bulls |
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01-02-18 | Spurs v. Knicks +5 | 100-91 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
The Knicks, enter this game better prepared to take on the San Antonio after a 119-107 road loss vs the Spurs last week on Dec 28.
Note: San Antonio's offense is averaging just 97.1 ppg on the road this season, while NYK has averaged 107.3 ppg at home. Knicks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games. Knicks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference.NEW YORK is 15-5 ATS in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. Knicks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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01-01-18 | Lakers v. Wolves -10 | 96-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Los Angeles is off a grueling , double-overtime loss (142-148) in Houston on Sunday that lasted nearly three hours and saw starters Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma and Tyler Ennis play over 40 minutes apiece. Already short-handed due to the injuries of Brook Lopez (sprained right ankle) and rookie Lonzo Ball (sprained left shoulder), and now exhausted the Lakers are susceptible to getting run over as this tilt progresses. Meanwhile, Minnesota had a much easier time of it , in a 107-90 victory at Indiana on Sunday and will be more than ready to run and gun again here at home as they go for their 7th win in 10 games. Lakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. LA LAKERS are 11-23 ATS L/34 after a loss by 6 points or less over the last few seasons with the average deficit margin clicking at just under 11 ppg. Play on the Wolves to cover |
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12-31-17 | 76ers -3 v. Suns | 123-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
The 76ers went into Denver last night and took out the Nuggets by a 107-102 count, and now with momentum on their sides I expect them to come out and take out the Phoenix Suns this Sunday night. I know the Suns have played decent hoops of late winning 5 of their L/7 and two good back to back games, but from a player vs player and system vs system perspective the Sixers in their current form matchup very well against them despite of losing the first meeting in this series this season back in December . With that that said, their is added incentive for the Sixers as they look to avenge that above mentioned embarrassing 115-101 loss in Philadelphia on Dec. 4, 76ers are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 vs. NBA Pacific.76ers are 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 vs. Western Conference.Favorite is 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings. PHILADELPHIA is 30-18 ATS L/48 in non-conference games.PHILADELPHIA is 25-14 ATS L/39 revenging a home loss vs opponent. NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, on Sunday games are 32-3 L/L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average victory coming by 8.9 ppg. NBA Road favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, on Sunday games are 31-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Philadelphia 76ers to cover |
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12-31-17 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 221 | 123-110 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
My own projections make this Total closer to 216 to 217, thus giving us value on a UNDER wager in this pot play between the Suns and 76ers. HC Triano of the Suns has turned his team around and are playing better ball of late, thanks to increased concentration on playing solid defensive ball. Tonight against a sometimes explosive 76ers group you bet this coach has a game plan that is centered on playing a slower brand of basketball. This I'm betting will directly effect the Total combined score of this tilt to the low side of the number. Note: Suns have failed to breach the 100 point plateau in 4 of their L/6 and 5 of their L/7 have remained on the low side the Total. Under is 7-0 in Suns last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 10-4 in Suns last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. PHOENIX is 21-6 UNDER L/27 after 2 straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more with a combined average score of 199.3 ppg going on the board. Suns HC Triano is 12-1 UNDER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game in all games in his career with a combined average of 209.5 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, tired team - playing their 4th road game in 7 days are 23-5 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 35-9 UNDER L/20 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for Totals bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 40-14 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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12-31-17 | Wolves -2 v. Pacers | 107-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Indiana's leading scorer Victor Oladipo is is expected miss his third consecutive game with a sore right knee when Indiana (19-17) hosts Minnesota (22-14) on Sunday. That's after having lost three in a row. That's not good news for a Pacers team that already in funk after having lost three straight games. QUOTE: Timberwolves are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 10 or more against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more are 26-2 SU L/21 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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12-30-17 | Spurs v. Pistons +4.5 | 79-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
The Pistons according to my cross reference system/player rankings is a team that matches up well vs the Spurs. It's not about which side is superior, but about a head to head matchup analysis that suggests that this Motown group are viable home underdogs. The Spurs rank 6th in SRS 3.02 and the Pistons rank 12th with a 0.77 SRS. The Pistons offense is ranked 22nd while the Spurs offense ranks 24th overall in the league. Both sides own viable defenses with the San Antonio ranking first and Detroit in 7th spot. From a aggregate point of view the line is slightly bloated according to my own systems, and with that said I'm recommending we take the points here with the Pistons. ( Detroit is 11-5 SU at home this season) Note: Detroit was upset last time out vs the Orlando Magic , as 4 point favs,(102-89) which is a good omen considering Detroit's ability in the past to bounce back as is evident by their 10-1 ATS record L/11 opportunities in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite . DETROIT is 9-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover |
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12-30-17 | Heat -1.5 v. Magic | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Pro ballers do not like to be embarrassed, because it effects future contract negotiations , and also damages what are usually huge egos. That is what the Miami Heat experienced last night in its worst home loss of the season to Brooklyn by a 111-87 count . Tonight the Heat will be in a big bounce back situation when they visit the Orlando Magic, a side of a upset victory vs the Pistons , last time out , but is also a side that has failed to get consecutive wins for more than seven weeks. MIAMI is 9-1 ATS L/10 off an upset loss as a home favorite .ORLANDO is 2-10 ATS L/12 after a game where they covered the spread this season. Previous to that above mentioned loss by Miami they have played well going 7-4 in its last 11 games while allowing more than 100 points in losing four of five. During this 11-game stretch, the Heat are allowing 96.8 points while recording a 102.7 defensive rating. Needless to say the Heat are no pushovers, and are well armed in their quest for redemption this evening. The Heat beat the Magic last time they played by a 107-89 count on Dec 26th. ORLANDO is 1-8 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. ORLANDO is 4-14 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season. Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
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12-29-17 | Clippers -2.5 v. Lakers | 121-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Five-time All Star forward Blake Griffin will be a game-time decision when the Los Angeles Clippers play the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on Friday, but play or not I'm betting on the Clippers still having the edge in their current form, failing to cover just twice in their L/10 games. Meanwhile, the Lakers 3-12 L/15 SU continue to play without two key contributors Lonzo Ball and Brooks Lopez which will hinder their cohesiveness again in this spot. Also Kuzma the Lakers leading scorer is listed as questionable for Friday's game because of a quad injury and if he plays could see limited minutes. With that said, I'm recommending we lay the short lumber and back the Clippers to cover . Clippers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Clippers have won 20 of their past 22 games against the Lakers dating to the start of the 2012-13 season and get the nod again here in a neutral court environment. Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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12-29-17 | Rockets -1.5 v. Wizards | 103-121 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
This Wizards continued their trend of inconsistent hoops this week beating Boston in a motivated effort and than laid an egg against the lowly Atlanta Hawks in their next game. Meanwhile, Houston has lost 4 in a row, in part due to injuries. But the other night they played at a high level leading Boston by as much as 26 points before folding and losing by 1 point. This Rockets team despite of being short handed is very deep and more than capable of taking out the Wizards here behind an offense averaging 114.6 points per game, which ranks second in the NBA. The Rockets swept the two-game series from the Wizards last season, including a 114-106 win in Washington on Nov. 7 and I'm expecting a rinse and repeat situation. Rockets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Rockets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.Rockets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Rockets are 4-0 ATS L/4 visits to DC. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - a top-level team ( 75% or better) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), first half of the season are 37-11 SU l/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NBA team (WASHINGTON) - off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 26-61 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors. Play on Houston Rockets to cover |
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12-28-17 | Knicks v. Spurs OVER 199 | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
The Spurs are the healthiest they have been for a long time and had their entire available roster ready to play for the first time all season on Tuesday when they beat Brooklyn 109-97. Note: SAN ANTONIO is 13-2 OVER L/15 in home games after a cover as a double digit favorite with a combined average of 206.2 ppg going on the board. This Spurs group despite of playing a defense first brand of hoops, is now explosive and ready to run, and will be motivated to get into an offensive rhythm as a team. This I'm betting will in turn lead to some faster paced outings for a while for the Spurs, including tonight against a Knicks group that when pushed can light the board up behind the likes of Porzingis . These teams have gone over 6 straight times in San Antonio.Over is 9-4-1 in Spurs last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Over is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.Over is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 vs. Western Conference.Over is 6-2 in Knicks last 8 road games. SAN ANTONIO in their L/62 in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season have seen a combined average of 205.5 ppg scored. NEW YORK in their L/46 games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots have seen a combined average score of 206.5 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW YORK) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 38-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play OVER |
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12-28-17 | Wolves v. Bucks -3.5 | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
The Milwaukee Bucks are an extremely talented team, that does not always play inspired ball, which results in their inconsistencies. The truth is that the Bucks when motivated can beat any team in this league, but on many occasions just come out in play flat uninspired hoops. With losses in five of their last seven games, the Bucks should be up for this tilt against a Minnesota Timberwolves team that is streaking and have won five games in a row, including a 128-125 overtime victory over Denver Wednesday night. Last nights game was grueling for the Wolves, and should see them on tired legs tonight. The Bucks in their current from need every edge they can get , and with this being at home where they usually play well they get the nod as short home favorites. (Bucks are 11-6 SU at home this season) Milwaukee has won five of the last six meetings in the series, including three in a row at the Bradley Center and the favorite is 5-1 ATS L/6 meetings. .Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Bucks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. MINNESOTA is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents .MINNESOTA is 1-8 ATS in non-conference games this season.MINNESOTA is 17-42 ATS L/59 after scoring 120 points. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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12-27-17 | Grizzlies +3 v. Lakers | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
Two teams struggling to get wins on the board go head to head tonight as the Grizzlies visit the Lakers in the Staples Center. The veteran laden Grizzlies are struggling much more than even I anticipated would be the case without injured floor general Conley out of the lineup, while the young Lakers show considerable inconsistencies. With that said, I'm always trying to find cracks in the current narratives associated with sports matchups that give me an edge against a line . From a matchup perspective the Grizzlies veterans are proven commodities in this league ie Gasol , Evans and matchup well against Lakers mostly inexperienced and unproven group that is also banged up with Lonzo Ball (shoulder) and Brookes Lopez expected to miss with an ankle injury. With that said, I'm betting we have value taking the Grizzlies. LA LAKERS are 7-22 ATS L/29 after playing 2 consecutive home games .Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 69-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Memphis Grizzlies to cover |
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12-27-17 | Nuggets v. Wolves OVER 213 | 125-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Denver and Minnesota are two teams exhibiting upper tier offensive production and lower tier defensive numbers. The Wolves rank 5th in offensive efficiency (112.4) and 25th in defensive efficiency (110.2). Meanwhile, the Nuggets ranked 7th in offensive efficiency (110.1) and a 17th ranked defensive efficiency rating of (108.3 ) . This combination of numbers adjusted to each team system and head to head matchup comparisons, project and estimated combined score of somewhere in the vicinity of 217 to 219 , thus giving us value with an over bet according to my numbers. Note: The only game between these teams this season saw a combined 216 points go on the board. My own projections estimate both sides will score at least 106+ points tonight. DENVER is 13-0 OVER L/13 where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combine average of 235.4 ppg clicking in on the board.MINNESOTA is 12-2 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 227 ppg scored. Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 overall.Over is 5-1-1 in Timberwolves last 7 vs. NBA Northwest.Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. MINNESOTA is 13-5 OVER when the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average of 222 ppg scored. DENVER is 31-11 OVER versus lower tier defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game with the combined average of 228.4 ppg scored and is 30-13 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 38-11 OVER L/5 seasons for 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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12-27-17 | Celtics -1 v. Hornets | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Charlotte enters this game having lost 14 of their L/18 overall SU, and have not notched back to back wins during that negative run. The Hornets did get a rare win last time out, vs the Bucks, but are still a less than cohesive unit at this time and fade material vs what my own ranking suggest is a better side . Meanwhile, the Celtics were upset at home vs a hungry looking Washington Wizards group last time out, and will now be primed for a bounce back performance. note: Celtics are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss. Celtics are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Hornets are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. CHARLOTTE is 5-17 ATS L/22 against Atlantic division opponents. CHARLOTTE is 7-15 ATS L/22 revenging a loss vs opponent this season .BOSTON is 25-14 ATS L/39 as a road favorite dating back to last season. CHARLOTTE is 1-8 ATS L/9 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. BOSTON is 20-7 ATS L/27 in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5. Boston has won 7 of the L/8 meetings in this series and 4 straight here in Charlotte. NBA Underdogs vs the money line (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (82 or more shots/game), after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent are JUST 9-50 SU L/5 seasons and 0-5 this season with the average margin of loss coming by 8.5 ppg. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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12-26-17 | Bulls +6 v. Bucks | 115-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
The Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks resume their long time rivalry tonight in a Boxing Day matchup at the Bradley Center.The same two teams met a little less than two weeks ago here in the same venue as the Bulls took a 115-109 victory . I know that the Bucks will now be out looking for revenge, but the according to my own matchup/systems player to player power rankings the Bulls matchup very well in this matchup and are a viable wagering investment opportunity getting points. |
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12-26-17 | Pacers +2 v. Pistons | 83-107 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Indiana enters this game against the Motown Pistons rated in the upper tier of my power rankings are a very under rated NBA team , on a overall upward performance trajectory. The Pacers rank 6th in offensive production (108.6 ppg) in the league and 8th overall in SRS +1.99. Meanwhile, the Pistons rank 14th in SRS with a 0.64 , and 22nd in offensive output (102.7 ppg). Detroit owns the better defense, but the numbers according to my head to head charts is minimal . Both are obviously rested, but one of these teams, the Pacers has excelled with added time off thanks to their aggressive run and gun offensive approach. Note: INDIANA is 13-1 ATS L/14 in road games when playing with 2 days rest. INDIANA is 28-14 ATS L/32 vs. division opponents. DETROIT is 10-26 ATS L/36 when the line is +3 to -3 . Pacers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.Pacers are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 vs. Eastern Conference.Pacers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Pistons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.Pistons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Pacers are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 28-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover |
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12-25-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -4 | 111-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Two teams that don't really like each other, go head to head to day in Boston on Christmas day, in a place where the Celtics have won and covered 9 straight in this series. I know the Celtics are a much different team than last season splay offs when the teams last met , with the roster having under gone changes, but I'm sure the animosity remains. From a matchup perspective the intangibles remain much the same and now according to my own power rankings the Celtics are even better now as a group, and here once again and on home court the men from Beantown have an edge. WASHINGTON is 4-14 ATS L/18 in road games against Atlantic division opponents .BOSTON is 14-5 ATS L/19 when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 9-34 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 795 for bettors. Play on Boston Celtics to cover |
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12-25-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -5 | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
The defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors host the Cleveland Cavaliers in a big time Christmas day matchup. I'm sure LeBron James and company will be out looking for redemption here today, after last season beat down in the Finals, and Golden State will also be out to make sure the status quo remains in play. From my own perspective and matchup/system/players comparisons the Warriors are the superior side with or without Curry in the lineup. Both these teams have explosive offenses , but what sets these teams apart is Golden States ability to play solid defense , behind the 3rd ranked Defensive efficiency ranking in the league something it seems Cleveland has a problem with as is evident by a 26th ranked defensive efficiency rating. From a SRS perspective the Cavs are ranked 6th in the league with a 2.44 and Golden State ranks 2nd with a 9.48 SRS for a +7 aggregate score making them solid home favorites according to these numbers. Note: Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. CLEVELAND is 11-21 ATS L/33 in all games this season. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games like the Cavs have are 39-5 SU record L/5 seasons winning SU by an average of 14.9 ppg. Play on Golden State Warriors to cover |
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12-23-17 | Blazers +3 v. Lakers | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
The Portland Trail Blazers prepare to play a LA Lakers team that is in a let down situation and on tired legs after playing and losing to the Golden State Warriors last night. |
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12-23-17 | Bucks +1.5 v. Hornets | 106-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
The Charlotte Hornets a team that has lost 13 of their L/15 games and on tired legs as they play their 6th game in 10 nights are in a bad position heading into this tilt vs the Bucks after losing Dwight Howard and Kemba Walker in last nights 109-104 loss to the Bucks in Milwaukee on Friday night . Now they go head to head with the Bucks again Saturday night in Charlotte at a disadvantage.The Hornets also expected to be without Treveon Graham for a fourth straight game because of back spasms. From a matchup perspective the Hornets even at full strength are at a matchup disadvantage, and do not matchup well vs Milwaukee's three-headed monster of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe who combined for 78 points and had 22 of the Bucks' 26 fourth quarter points last night. With that said, I'm looking only one way at this tilt , and that directly at the Bucks. CHARLOTTE is 7-15 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season. NBA Home favorites (CHARLOTTE) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense ( 36.5% or better ), good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 reb/game) are 18-44 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 71% for bettors. Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover |
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12-22-17 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 217 | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
The Los Angeles Lakers offense is flowing as was evident when they took out the Houston Rockets last time out in a 122-116 road win. The Lakers have scored 100 or more points in 15 of their L/16 games and have allowed more than 100 points in 13 of those wide open tilts behind a break neck pace ranked No.1 in the NBA ( 102.3). Now their run and gun attack will take aim the defending champion Golden State Warriors. Not trying to slow the game down and coming right after Houston last time out paid big dividends for the Lakers and tonight, I'm betting they enter this game ready to run the floor again in fearless fashion which will help aid this game going over the set total. I know Golden State is banged up, but their is more than enough talent here to keep pace and light up the board in response to the Lakers diverse and explosive attack. The Warriors rank first in the league in offense (116.3 ppg) and own the 5th ranked pace in the league ( 100.3) . (Draymond Green is expected to play tonight)
The two most recent meetings in this series have been high scoring with both eclipsing this number ( Total). Over is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 vs. NBA Pacific. NBA team (LA LAKERS) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, on Friday nights 26-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play OVER |
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12-22-17 | Hawks +11.5 v. Thunder | 117-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
The Thunder enter this tilt with a 16-15 record into a Friday night matchup against Atlanta, a team that's rebuilding and 7-24 on the season - the worst record in the NBA. I know Atlanta does not inspire bettors but their getting better as a group and still quantifiable DD underdogs, behind their two top scorers - Dennis Schroder and Taurean Prince. The Hawks dropped from third in the NBA in 3-point shooting to eighth after making only 8-of-29 attempts Wednesday, but their always a viable backdoor cover side because of their downtown abilities. With that said, plug your nose , blind fold yourself and just pull the trigger on the Hawks to cover. OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-20 ATS L/28 as a favorite this season and is 2-10 ATS L/12 when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-9 ATS L/10 after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home loss are 9-32 ATS L/19 seasons for a go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover |
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12-22-17 | Wizards v. Nets +5.5 | 84-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Brooklyn may not inspire bettors because of recent ugly performances, but from a matchup perspective according to my own cross reference player system rankings have an edge as home underdogs in this spot play vs the Washington Wizards. The Wizards had a seven-game winning streak snapped in the series in their last visit to Brooklyn, and tonight if they win I'm betting it will not come easily. WASHINGTON is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more with the average score of those tilts clicking in as follows Washington 110 Opposition 108. WASHINGTON is also just 4-13 ATS L/17 in road games against Atlantic division opponents . NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BROOKLYN) - off a upset loss as a favorite against opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points are 108-39 SU L/5 seasons winning by an average of 6.8 ppg, for a 74% conversion rate. ( From this league wide trend their is obviously value with taking points here) Play on Brooklyn to cover |
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12-21-17 | Grizzlies -2 v. Suns | 95-97 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
The Memphis Grizzlies and Phoenix Suns are two teams struggling to get wins. Both are without key players as Mike Conley the Grizzlies floor general continues to rehab an injury and the Suns Devin Booker their leading scorer is also not expected back for a few more games. From a talent perspective the Grizzlies have the edge to find a way to win tonight, despite of the Suns holding home court advantage. However, according to my own matchup systems power rankings Memphis has the edge and is the less of two evils here in this spot play. Note: Memphis SRS is -2.43 (ranked 23rd) while Phoenix SRS is -7.58 ranked 29th in the league. Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. NBA Road underdogs (MEMPHIS) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a struggling defensive team ( 102 PPG) are 27-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 775 conversion rate for bettors. Play on Memphis to cover |
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12-21-17 | Bulls v. Cavs OVER 213 | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Chicago enters this game with offensive flow having eclipsed the 100 point plateau in 7 straight games but have allowed more than 100 points in 15 of their L/18 overall. Now on tired legs after last nights rare strong defensive effort vs Orlando I'm betting they revert back to the norm and allow the explosive Cleveland Cavaliers to light them up for a boat load full of points tonight. Meanwhile, Cleveland has scored an average of over 111 ppg this season, ranking 4th in offense in the league, which includes a porous D, that has allowed 107.4 ppg ranked 23rd worst in the league. Tonight I'm betting on a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this beat Total. CLEVELAND in 16 games when playing against a team with a losing record this season have seen a combined average of 221.1 ppg go on the board. CLEVELAND is 15-4 OVER in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread with a combined average of 227.1 ppg go on the scoreboard. Over is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 20-7 in Cavaliers last 27 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CHICAGO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a struggling defensive team (102 PPG or more ), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 31-7 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play OVER |
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12-20-17 | Magic v. Bulls UNDER 211 | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
The Chicago Bulls enter this game against Orlando , with the 28th ranked offense, and the 13th ranked pace. The Bulls have scored more consistently of late, but I'm betting they will revert to the mean eventually and more importantly tonight , because of key system discrepancies which I have pinpointed from a matchup system I have formulated . Meanwhile, the Orlando Magic, own the 13th ranked offense and 7 th ranked pace. The Magic have also failed to eclipse the 95 point plateau on offense in 4 of their L/7, and are struggling to stay offensively consistent and I'm betting their production problems will persist in this spot. Under is 6-0 in Magic last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 4-0 in Magic last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Bulls last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 20-8 in Bulls last 28 home games.Under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings. CHICAGO is 21-8 UNDER L/29 versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game with a combined average score of 201.2 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 30-18 UNDER L/48 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average score of 207.6 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 25-12 UNDER as a favorite dating back to last season with a combined average 202.6 points per game on going on the scoreboard. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 38-11 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-20-17 | Pacers -4 v. Hawks | 105-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
The Pacers enter this game in a foul mood after coming off a heart breaking 112-111 last-second loss to the Boston Celtics . Showing their ability to play together , however , is what caught my attention from that game. The Pacers were being thumped by the Celtics for most of the game , but little by little inched their way back showing me this teams tenacity. Now with redemption at hand and a chip on their shoulders, I'm betting they come here with all guns firing. That not a good omen for a Atlanta team, despite of ending a 5 game losing streak last time out, has still struggled most of this season, in what many consider a rebuilding year for the franchise. Add to that ,Atlanta is banged up and are without forward Mike Muscala (left ankle) and center Dewayne Dedmon (left tibia) and also have some walking wounded as well as forward Luke Babbitt, and rookie center John Collins are gradually moving back into the rotation after missing six games with a sprained left AC joint. I'm really expecting Indiana to romp tonight and recommending we lay the lumber with the road favorite. Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southeast.Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss. NBA Home underdogs (ATLANTA) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 39-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. These below SU lines/trends pertain to historical moneyline outputs that translate into ATS wins based on average margin of victory formula. NBA Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after a close loss by 3 points or less are 34-141 SU L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors, with the average margin loss coming by 7.7 ppg. NBA Road favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (INDIANA) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more are 94-19 SU L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors winning by an average of 8.7 ppg. Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover |
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12-19-17 | Pelicans v. Wizards -3 | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
The Wizards (16-14) enter this meeting against the Pelicans (15-15) coming off a 106-99 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday. That tilt against an upper echelon team will have the Wizards very ready to play against the Pelicans two super stars here tonight (Davis and Cousins). Meanwhile, New Orleans has been largely inconsistent this season, in part thanks to the experiment involving have two big men ( Davis/cousins) together in the lineup in a increasingly small-ball orientated league. Tonight against a Wizards team that thrives when John Wall is on the floor especially on the take away the Bayou visitors will be at a disadvantage even though they are well rested. New Orleans is tied for 27th in the NBA with an average of 15.9 turnovers per game and won't be surprised if that number increases here tonight and the difference maker in this game. Pelicans are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest. It must be noted that New Orleans allows 111.1 ppg on the road this season, and when the Wizards score 106 to 111 points in game this season they are perfect 8-0 ATS winning SU by an average of 14.9 ppg. WASHINGTON is 10-1 ATS L/11 after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread. NEW ORLEANS is 4-17 ATS L/21 in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs. NEW ORLEANS is 5-16 ATS L/21 against Southeast division opponents. Washington has won 4 straight in this series and covered 5 straight and have won and covered the two most recent games here in DC is this series. key injury update. NO - Davis rolled his ankle in his last game and if he plays tonight will be less than 100%. Play on the Washington Wizards to cover |
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12-18-17 | Clippers +11 v. Spurs | 91-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
The San Antonio Spurs have most of their team back, but guards Danny Green and Tony Parker, and forward Kawhi Leonard were on the bench nursing injuries or resting to rehab them in their last game, and all three are still less than 100% with the Spurs still trying to get acclimated to Leonard being back in the lineup. Meanwhile, their visiting opponents tonight the Clippers despite of being banged up, are still playing hard and staying competitive and have covered 5 straight games. They also enter this game feeling a little disrespected after a 90-85 loss at Miami last time out, as they questioned the officiating as they felt they were not getting calls at the end of the game, and now have a chip on their shoulders entering this tilt as underdogs . QUOTE: "I don't know if we would have won the game or not, but I thought we got missed calls down the stretch and I thought that hurt us," Rivers said. "Having said that, I just love our spirit. There are so many reasons not to hang in there, not to play and our guys just keep doing it." END QUOTE Spurs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Pacific.Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.Rivers is 18-7 ATS L/25 in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more ( SA beat the clippers on Nov 7 by a 120-107 count) NBA Home teams (SAN ANTONIO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a close win by 3 points or less are 24-53 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 69% for bettors. Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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12-18-17 | Nuggets +5 v. Thunder | 94-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Nothing has come easily for the Oklahoma city Thunder this season, as Melo, George and Westbrook are having problems playing together in consistent cohesive manner. Yes, their notching some wins, but from an ATS perspective their not covering consistently and are a ugly 2-10 ATS L/12, thanks to bloated public perception lines. Until they become as dominant as some of their illusionary lines might indicate, the Thunder against certain types of teams and weak lines are fade material in my humble opinion . That's exactly the situation tonight as I am recommending we back the visiting and fast improving Nuggets getting points. The Nuggets, beat Oklahoma City 102-94 on Nov. 9 and matchup well against the from my own power rankings perspective.
Thunder are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Northwest.Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.Thunder are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 vs. Western Conference.Thunder are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.Nuggets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-17 ATS L/25 versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 2-13 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 0-7 ATS vs. division opponents this season NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 26-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover |
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12-18-17 | Celtics -2.5 v. Pacers | 112-111 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
The Celtics will play a Indiana team on tired legs tonight , after the Pacers took part in a 14 point win vs the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday evening. The Pacers know what their up against. The Celtics have won and covered 4 straight and are solid favs here on the road as three points or less according to my own numbers and cross reference system/player matchups. QUOTE: "We know how good they are," Indiana coach Nate McMillan said. "We haven't had success against those guys really in the last couple of years. Really, we got try to get out of here quickly, get home and try to defend home court." END QUOTE: QUOTE: "They're a great team, and we're going to have to be ready to play," Oladipo said of the Celtics. "Simple as that. They're playing really well. They're the number one team in the Eastern Conference. "They do a great job of playing together, and we're going to have to do a great job of playing together as well. It's going to be a tough game, especially coming off a back-to-back, so we're going to have to ready to play."END QUOTE: Boston has played very well against explosive offensive sides this season, as is evident by a BOSTON is 11-0 ATS record versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season ( Celtics 105 Opposition 96.3) and is 10-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. BOSTON is 15-3 ATS L/18 in road games against Central division opponents. Celtics are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Pacers are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.Pacers are 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 games playing on 0 days rest. Favorite has covered 6 straight times in this series. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - a top-level team (75% or better) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), first half of the season are 36-9 SU over the L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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12-17-17 | Cavs -1.5 v. Wizards | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Cleveland enters this game off a win vs the Utah Jazz last night, for their 17th win and 18 trips to the hardwood. I know the Cavs played last night, and pundits continue to look at the Wizards as contenders, but the old men from Ohio, I'm betting will still have enough juice left in the tank to dispose of a inconsistent team they have beaten 4 of the L/5 times SU/ATS . It must also be noted that Sundays seem to be a good day for LeBron James and company as they have won 13 straight on this day, including 7 in a row as visitors. Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Cavaliers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Cavs are 9-3 ATS L/12 games Capital One Arena. Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. NBA teams like the Wizards -average 3 pt shooting side, (33-36.5%) against a lower tier 3pt defense, (36.5% or worse) are 9-20 SU L/29 after 3 straight games , allowing a shooting percentage 42% or less for 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover |
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12-16-17 | Bucks +11 v. Rockets | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Houston last night got the revenge they wanted for a Game 7 Western Conference semi final loss they suffered last season vs the San Antonio Spurs. It was a start to finish physical and emotionally charged grueling win for the Rockets that will now have them on tired legs and in an let down situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks are viable side, in this spot despite of them also playing on short rest after last nights sleepy looking loss to long time rivals the Bulls. Note: Bucks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 0 days rest and one of the better conditioned teams in the NBA. The Rockets are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Also the Rockets are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. MILWAUKEE is 36-17 ATS L/53 in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game .HOUSTON is 6-16 ATS L/22 in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots.HOUSTON is 5-16 ATS L/21 in home games in non-conference games.Underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. NBA Home favorites (HOUSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team (5.5 or less reb/game are 15-51 ATS L/21 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate for bettors. Also NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or more ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team (5.5 or less reb/game) 8-30 ATS L/21 seasons for a 79% go against conversion rate. Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover |
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12-16-17 | Clippers +6 v. Heat | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Tonight two teams the visiting LA Clippers and their hosts the Miami Heat are missing key players and suffering through an array of injuries prepare to play each other after both sides played last night. The Clippers are without Blake Griffin and Austin Rivers, while the Heat are playing without key defensive cog Hassan Whiteside and Justice Winslow. Both have struggled at times, and both are desperate and working hard for wins/losses. Both sides have however, still found ways to win and both have collected victories in 3 of their L/4 outings. From a power rankings perspective and considering my own margin deficit projections based on correlated data, suggest we have value with the underdog visitor in this spot. It must also be noted that the Heat have struggled at home this season, and are just 2-13-2 ATS in their last 17 home games and are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record like the Clippers. Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Heat are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Play on the LA Clippers |
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12-16-17 | Jazz v. Cavs UNDER 210 | 100-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
The Jazz played a physical game last night in the middle of a 6 game road trip and will now be exhausted after beating the Boston Celtics 107-95 on Friday. After last nights game they went out to the airport and had to fly two hours to play a well rested Cavaliers team that has been home for almost a week. Needless to say their game plan tonight will be to survive via a slow paced effort which will effect the overall offensive output for both these teams. It must also be noted that they Jazz top big men got banged up last night as Favors (stitches above his eye) and Gobert (left knee injury) if they play will be less than 100% which will also effect the Jazz offensive output in this spot. With that said, I'm betting on the Jazz third ranked D, and 24th ranked pace to be key elements in a stagnated combined offensive output vs an explosive opponent which will directly effect the combined score to fall below the posted Total. UTAH is 38-19 UNDER L/57 in road games versus lower tier defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game. Under is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-3 in Jazz last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.Under is 7-2-1 in Cavaliers last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (UTAH) - in a game involving two excellent free throw shooting teams (79% or better), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less) are 28-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for totals bettors. Play on UNDER |
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12-16-17 | Blazers v. Hornets OVER 204.5 | 93-91 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
Charlotte enters this game having seen a combined average of 212.5 ppg go on the board in their home games this season. Meanwhile, the Blazers a have seen a combined average of 205 ppg get scored in their road tilts. My own numbers and matchup stats and projections put this total closer to 207, after considering both sides usual pace numbers, which gives us value to the over with this number we are betting into. PORTLAND is 11-1 OVER in road games after a combined score of 185 points or less which happened in their 95-88 win vs the Magic yesterday. the combined average score of those tilts was 220.3 ppg. CHARLOTTE in 7 games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season, have seen a combined average of 217.9 ppg go on the board. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (CHARLOTTE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a lower tier team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 40-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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12-16-17 | Blazers +3.5 v. Hornets | 93-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Both teams will be playing the second half of a back-to-back, with the Trail Blazers having won 95-88 at Orlando on Friday night and the Hornets falling 104-98 at home to Miami. Also two of the leagues premier guards will go head to head, with Blazers Lillard and the Hornets Walker . In the past Lillard has gotten the better of Walker in their head-to-heads winning 7 off the L/10 matchups and I'm betting has the edge again tonight vs a side that has lost 9 of their L/11 games SU. |
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12-15-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -8 | 109-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
REVENGE is the name of the game here tonight. Last season, the Rockets were humiliated in Game 7 of their NBA Western Conference final matchup here in front of their own home town fans, losing by a 114-75 count. Now with redemption at hand, and the Spurs dealing with trying to integrate their top players the rusty Kawhi Leonard back into the lineup after a lengthy abscense because of injury, I'm betting the Rockets have the edge and get their revenge and also get us the cover as well. Spurs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Play on the Houston Rockets to cover |
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12-15-17 | Bulls +8 v. Bucks | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
The rebuilding Bulls are playing a rare type of blue collar basketball at the moment, something that is rarely seen in the NBA these days. The Bulls have won 4 straight games, and are in top form and playing with a lot of chemistry. Tonight against their long time rivals the Bucks, they will not be an easy out , thus getting points is a viable wagering opportunity , when comparing both teams current form/systems and player personnel. Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.Bucks are 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Central.Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bulls are 17-2 vs the Bucks when playing off back to back SU wins. NBA Road underdogs (CHICAGO) - lower tier team - shooting 43% or less with a defense of 46% or better on the season against opponent after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 8-27 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 77% for bettors. Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover |
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12-15-17 | Jazz v. Celtics OVER 198 | 107-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
The Utah Jazz despite of owning one of the lower pace numbers in the league and strong D , are taking part in some fairly high scoring games of late, with combined scores of 213, 217, 203 combined points going on the board in their L/3 trips to the court. The Jazz themselves have scored 100 or more points in 9 of their L/10, and have allowed 100 or more points in 7 of their L/10. with that said, and this being the Jazz's third straight road game , fatigue will play a major part in more defensive breakdowns in this spot and a wider open game. Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics despite of being a solid defensive team as well, are on tired legs after a high scoring run and gun affair vs the Denver Nuggets last time out taking, a 124-118 win, and won't have the energy to play hardcore physical hoops tonight, which I'm betting will make this a higher scoring game than many pundits might anticipate. Over is 10-4 in Celtics last 14 overall.Over is 25-10-1 in Celtics last 36 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 7-2 in Celtics last 9 vs. NBA Northwest. BOSTON in their L/20 games when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 204.3 ppg scored. BOSTON is 19-6 OVER L/25 in home games after a combined score of 235 points with a combined average of 212.8 ppg going on the board. NBA Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (UTAH) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 32-5 OVER L/21 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for totals bettors. Play OVER |
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12-15-17 | Thunder +2 v. 76ers | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City enters this game against the Philadelphia 76ers, playing what I would call decent basketball (5-2 SU L/7). I don't think their still 100% acclimated to playing cohesive hoops behind the big three of George, Melo, and Westbrook, but they have made strides in a positive direction and should continue to improve. As far as tonight's road tilt is concerned , my own numbers and power rankings suggest that superior side in a head to head matchup is the Oklahoma City Thunder. Yes, the Sixers are no longer bottom feeders and have shown a great deal of improvement, but they are still young and from time to time have provided questionable work ethic as was evident in a recent 4 game losing streak which they snapped last time out. Just to much weight is being placed on players like Embiid and Simmons which leads to fatigue late in games, where guys like the Thunders Westbrook thrive. This I'm betting will be the difference maker here tonight. Note: Westbrook averaged 25 points, 11.5 rebounds and 11.5 assists in two wins over Philadelphia last season. Look for the Thunders veterans to be the difference maker as this contest progresses and for the Thunder to get their 17th consecutive win in this series. Thunder are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.76ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Thunder are 16-0 SU L/16 vs the Sixers. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in December games are just 37-65 SU L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 64% for bettors. Play on Oklahoma City Thunder to cover |
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12-15-17 | Pistons +4.5 v. Pacers | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Detroit enters this game off ending a 7 straight game losing streak with a 105-91 victory vs Atlanta last night.. Previous to that the Pistons for the most part were competitive despite of the negative results with 4 of the 7 games decided by 5 points or less. QUOTE: "When you're coming off of seven losses, it's tough," guard Langston Galloway told reporters. "You're trying to find your rhythm, find anything you can salvage. When we finally got our rhythm and made stops, we just continued to make that a bulldozer effect." END QUOTE. I'm betting on the Pistons feeding off that momentum tonight. Meanwhile, the Pacers lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder last time out at home, and could easily be in an emotional letdown situation, after a grueling game, that featured the return of Paul George to town. There were a lot of fiery emotions from the crowd and the energy was sky high, so I won't be surprised if the Pacers come out flat here. |
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12-15-17 | Blazers -3 v. Magic | 95-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Orlando enters this game struggling to win games in the last month while dealing with a growing list of injuries with the walking wounded scattered all over the place. the Magic are currently in a shambles, after having lost 14 of their last 17 trips to the hardwood. Meanwhile visiting Portland when their getting wins, do it in part because of what I attribute to their solid conditioning. These guys just wear teams out. That's what happened as Portland seemed headed for a sixth straight loss Wednesday but rallied from 16 points down to win at Miami. It was Portland's fourth comeback from a double-digit deficit this season and third in the Eastern Time Zone, where they seem to be able to run and gun with positive results. Yes, I know the Blazers are streaky, which is a good thing as they look for their second consecutive strong effort vs a banged up team, that will find it difficult to keep up on the scoreboard because of their current personnel deficiencies. It must be note that On Nov. 15, the Magic took a 14-point lead early into the second quarter, before Portland came back and grabbed a 99-94 home win.ORLANDO is 0-7 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. average score: Orlando 96.7 Opposition 113.9 ORLANDO is 2-11 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season.PORTLAND is 11-2 ATS L/13 in road games off an upset win as an underdog. NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PORTLAND) - poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) against another lower tier defensive team (102 PPG or more ), after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game are 25-7 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 78% for bettors. Play on the Portland Blazers to cover |
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12-14-17 | Lakers v. Cavs OVER 219 | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
The Lakers enter this game having scored 100 or more points in 12 of their L/13 overall games, in mostly wide open run and gun affairs as they rank No.1 in pace in the league (102.4). On the season the Lakers defense has allowed 108.9 ppg and rank 24th in the league. Meanwhile, Cleveland the Lakers hosts tonight, are ranked 3rd in the league in offense (111 ppg) and are ranked 23rd in defense, in what has become a wide open high scoring entertaining circus. Tonight I expect the Lakers young legs to try to keep up with the senior/star laden Cavaliers lineup in a game that I expect to eclipse the number. CLEVELAND is 25-12 OVER L/37 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game with a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored.CLEVELAND in 7 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season have seen the combined average score click in at 224.4 ppg. Over is 8-0 in Cavaliers last 8 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.Over is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CLEVELAND) - after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games are 44-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play OVER |
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12-14-17 | Knicks +2 v. Nets | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Brooklyn will face a stiff challenge trying to contain Kristaps Porzingis Thursday night when it hosts the New York Knicks The Nets in their last meetings vs the Knicks really struggled when they were handed a 107-86 loss at New York on Oct. 27. Porzingis scored 30 points on 13 of 24 shooting in 29:23. According to my own matchup player/system matchup power rankings the Knicks matchup well vs the Nets and get the nod tonight as slight underdogs in game they can win SU. Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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12-13-17 | Hornets v. Rockets UNDER 221 | 96-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
The Rockets' exerted a lot of energy in a 130-123 win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday night at Toyota Center , that will now have them on tired legs. Last night they had to come back ferociously with a small ball lineup after their defense was torched for the first three quarters, something that will concern the coaching staff , and will have the Rockets more vigilant in transition here this evening vs the Charlotte Hornets. Meanwhile, the Hornets will want to slow this game down, vs an explosive opponent, as their own offense has been very inconsistent this season, ranking 20th in offensive rating (103.3) and rank in the bottom 5 in field-goal percentage (27th) and effective field-goal percentage (29th). Charlotte is also 24th in 3-pointers made (nine) and attempted (25.3) per game. Needless to say, the slower the better, and after last nights run and gun affair, I'm betting the Rockets wont mind a slower paced affair either. Note: The two most recent meetings in this series this season have gone under the Total with 202 combined ppg going on the board in both tilts (Houston won both games). I'm betting on a similar score tonight. CHARLOTTE is 26-11 UNDER L/37 revenging a home loss vs opponent with a combined average of 200.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHARLOTTE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a road win are 24-4 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-13-17 | Jazz -4.5 v. Bulls | 100-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
The Jazz (13-14) enter Wednesday's game having lost three straight and will primed to end their mini slump vs a beatable Chicago Bulls side (6-20). I know the hard working Bulls are on a 3 game win streak, and looked impressive vs the Celtics last time out, winning by a 108-85 count, but despite of that I',m still not sold on this rebuilding team. Note: CHICAGO is 1-13 ATS L/14 in home games after allowing 90 points or less. Also from a matchup perspective, both sides are blue collar lunch pale types, but one team, (Jazz) is far more cohesive and a lot more experienced at playing physical grind it out basketball. |
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12-13-17 | Bucks +2 v. Pelicans | 108-115 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
The Pelicans enter this home game on tired legs after Monday nights 130-122 run and gun loss to the Houston Rockets and will be at a disadvantage vs a Milwaukee Bucks team on three days rest. The Pelican defense remains a problem, as was the case last night, as they allowed the Rockets to shoot 54.5 % and convert 17 treys . Plus add to that they are now having to deal with not having swingman Tony Allen in the lineup, a defensive standout,(broken leg). Pelicans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Milwaukee is 6-1 L/7 SU overall. The Bucks are well rested and feeling good about their chances , and I agree with their star Antetokounmpo assessments . QUOTE:"I think we have a unique opportunity here as a team," Antetokounmpo said. "We're doing well right now, and we've got to keep it up. We know that things are going well, we're feeling ourselves right now, playing great as a team, but we've got to keep playing hard."END QUOTE. NBA Home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or better), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team ( 5.5 reb/game or less) are 54-14 ATS L/21 seasons for a 79% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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12-13-17 | Blazers +3 v. Heat | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
The Portland Trail Blazers, who visit the Miami Heat on Wednesday night at AmericanAirlines Arena, are on a season-high five-game losing streak and desperation is now a key word in describing their situation at the moment. With that said, I love backing teams like this, that despite of being in a funk, are not playing badly. For example their last two losses have come by 7 points each to Houston and Golden State, thus making this tilt , compared to those battles vs the Heat almost like a leisurely walk in the park. Also the Blazers have played well on the road this seasons, at 6-5 and while the Heat have been sub par with a 5-6 record as hosts and get my backing as underdogs in this spot. Trail Blazers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Heat are 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 home games.Trail Blazers are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MIAMI) - off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog, in December games are 9-22 SU L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, first half of the season are 119-73 ATS L/17 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Portland Blazers to cover |
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12-12-17 | Suns v. Kings UNDER 211 | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
The Kings enter this game consistently showing slow starts to their games averaging only 23.0 points in the first 12 minutes and have been held below 20 nine times in their 26 first quarters. Meanwhile, the Suns are averaging nearly 24 points in the opening 12 minutes of their past five games, and that includes a 17-point opening quarter in the loss to San Antonio. With leading scorer Booker out, the Suns overall offensive production flow and energy should also be muted. These above mentioned kinds of starts can translate into lower scoring games than many might expect, and that's what I m betting on tonight. SACRAMENTO is 23-12 UNDER when the total is 210 to 219.5.Under is 6-1 in Suns last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 19-8 in Kings last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Under is 19-7 in Kings last 26 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHOENIX) - lower tier team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 20-54 UNDER L/20 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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12-12-17 | Lakers +3 v. Knicks | 109-113 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
The Lakers have won their last two games and enter this game against the NY Knicks with momentum. Meanwhile, the Knicks are also off a win but have not won two games in a row since Nov 22 and I'm betting things wont come easily tonight. This matchup will be a head to head battle of opposite tempos as the run and gun Lakers (ranked first in the league in possessions per game) will force the pace vs the physical slow paced Knicks (19th in possessions per game). From a matchup perspective my own power rankings and players and system matchups suggest that the Lakers have the edge on this line and a viable underdog in this spot. Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play on the Lakers to cover |
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12-11-17 | Raptors -5.5 v. Clippers | 91-96 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
The Raptors enter this game against the LA Clippers on fire having won 6 straight games, behind an explosive offense, averaging 117 points during their run . Meanwhile, the Clippers snapped a four-game losing streak with an emotional win over Washington on Saturday, as Lou Williams' 3-pointer with 1.2 seconds left was the difference maker. Nothing is coming easily for the Clippers without the injured Blake Griffin in the lineup, and tonight their in over their heads vs a run and gun opponent in top form. |
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12-10-17 | Celtics -1 v. Pistons | 91-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
The slumping Detroit Pistons will host the revenge minded Boston Celtics on Sunday afternoon. The last time these teams played the Pistons took a 118-108 win as 6 point road dogs. Now the Celtics 5-1 in their L/6 overall get their chance at payback, and I'm betting they get it vs a Pistons team that has lost 5 straight games and playing at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum at the moment. BOSTON is 8-1 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season.BOSTON is 14-2 ATS L/16 in road games against Central division opponents. DETROIT is 10-24 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 losing SU by 5 .2 ppg. BOSTON is 18-7 ATS L/25 as a road favorite of 6 points or less ( Boston 106.2 vs Opp 100.3 ) NBA Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - a top-level team ( 75% or better) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), first half of the season are 35-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors including 6-1 straight up this season. Play on the Boston Celtics to win on the moneyline |
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12-09-17 | Knicks -3 v. Bulls | 102-104 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
The bad news Bulls ended a 10 consecutive loss streak last night , in Charlotte , but now on short rest I feel their at a disadvantage to record back-to-back wins for the first time this season . Meanwhile, the NY Knicks, have been off since Wednesday and very ready to run here. CHICAGO is 10-25 ATS L/35 off a road win. Knicks are 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 vs the Bulls. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after scoring 105 points or more are 23-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% go against conversion rate. NBA Road favorites (NEW YORK) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days against opponent tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 70-37 ATS L/5 seasons, for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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12-09-17 | Magic +4.5 v. Hawks | 110-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
These two teams the visiting Magic and their hosts the Atlanta Hawks are banged up, with a a lot of regulars on the sidelines with injuries, but what's left on the court favors the Orlando Magic according to my own cross reference power rankings. The Magic just beat the Hawks in the first of back to back home and away games, and get the nod again tonight even without 2nd leading scorer Fournier out. Magic are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Hawks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.Magic are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta. NBA Favorites (ATLANTA) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog against opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are just 11-38 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 78% for bettors. Play on Orlando to cover |
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12-09-17 | Wizards -3 v. Clippers | 112-113 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
The Wizards enter this tilt vs the LA Clippers having won 2 consecutive games behind the offensively explosive Beal's. The star guard scored 34 points in a Wizards' victory on Thursday at Phoenix and ploughed down 51 points in a impressive victory Tuesday at Portland. The Wizards are finally awake after being humiliated, by the Utah Jazz before their current mini run by a 116-69 margin. Meanwhile, their opponents the LA Clippers are short handed and have lost 4 straight. Their not operating very well without Blake Griffin in the lineup, It's been particularly evident on defense where, Los Angeles has given up an average of 114.8 points per game in those 4 losing tilts. The Wizards are feeling confident and I'm going to back them here today behind their current momentum and mind set QUOTE: "Not to take nothing away from these teams, but you've got to look at the teams that we beat," Wizards forward Markieff Morris said about the two-game win streak, according to the Washington Post. "(Thursday) we won a game without their best player (Devin Booker). We got a Clippers team that's got a bunch of players hurt. A Brooklyn team (on Tuesday) that's middle of the pack. So those are games, that in all honesty, we're supposed to win." END QUOTE: LA CLIPPERS are 1-10 ATS L/11 after one or more consecutive overs this season.Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Pacific. Clippers are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games are 7-39 SU L/21 seasons. Thus laying 2.5 to 3 points here is a viable wagering opportunity based on this long term trend, and the condition of both teams at the time of this meeting. Play on the Washington Wizards to cover |
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12-08-17 | Celtics v. Spurs OVER 197 | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
These teams have two of the top defenses in the league. Their numbers are obviously accumulated /calculated from playing all types of teams . However, when looking at a head on matchup, both can score consistently and offensive flow is something that just something that comes with matchups like this. The Celtics average more than 103 ppg on the road, while the Spurs average 106 + ppg at home. When these teams met earlier this season the Boston crew took out the men from San Antonio via a 108-94 ( 202 pts). Tonight I expect a little bit more scoring and a faster pace, as the home town team comes out looking for revenge. I'm betting the Spurs will come out here on fire, and for the Celtics to have to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court. Even if the game staggers into a proverbial physical battle, both teams ability to light things up in transition will have this tilt eclipse the beatable number. Play OVER |
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12-08-17 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Magic | 103-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Two teams enduring injuries to key players meet Friday night when the Denver Nuggets visit the Orlando Magic. Two of the Nuggets top three scorers are out (Jokic, Milisap) while, the Magic 2nd leading scorer Fournier is down and doubtful tonight . What's left on the floor , from a data and matchup perspective favors the Nuggets more balanced lineup and bench strength . Yes, the Magic have won 3 of their L/5 , but previous to that had lost 9 straight, and are still a team learning to play consistently. The Nuggets have won the last three meetings after a 125-107 victory at home on Nov. 11 and are a viable cover opportunity tonight as well. ORLANDO is 14-30 ATS L/44 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts. ORLANDO is 4-15 ATS L/19 after a division game .Magic are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.. DENVER is 21-10 ATS off a road loss and is 30-13 ATS L/43 in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Nuggets are 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Orlando. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 68-24 ATS L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover |
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12-08-17 | Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 218.5 | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
A lot has been made of how explosive the Cavaliers have been offensively since their 13 game win streak started. But it must be noted that the Cavaliers have not allowed 5 of their L/7 opponents to eclipse the 99 point plateau and their D is getting better and better as this season has progressed. The Cavs are also ranked just 14th in pace so their not exactly a run and gun team either. Meanwhile, the Pacers their hosts tonight, have held their last two opponents under 100 points and will be ready to play a physical game here in attempt to derail their hot visitors. The above combination as well as my own analysis of both sides systems, and specific game factors, make this Total weak and I'm betting that combined score ends up on the low side of the number.
Play UNDER |
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12-08-17 | Cavs -3 v. Pacers | 102-106 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Indiana came into Cleveland on Nov1, and beat them soundly in front of their own fans, by a 124-107 count and now with revenge on board the Cavaliers are a viable side to back laying short lumber here on the road. I'm betting on James and company to get their franchise-record 14th consecutive win when they visit the Central Division rival Indiana Pacers on Friday. |
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12-06-17 | Heat +7.5 v. Spurs | 105-117 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
The Spurs go head to head with one of the league's never say die teams on Wednesday when they host the Miami Heat at the AT&T Center in San Antonio. On paper not a lot was expected from the Heat, this season, but on the court, their obvious chemistry has made them a team that should not be taken lightly. I know the Spurs are a well coached disciplined team, but the Heat with or without Hassan Whiteside in the lineup offer up a physical opponent, that actually matches up well against the Spurs according to my own cross reference player/system rankings. Look for a grueling tilt , that has the underdog cover the number. |
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12-06-17 | Pistons +4.5 v. Bucks | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Detroit after a fast start to their current campaign , are now a side desperately trying to get back on track , after losing four of their last six, including the past three in a row. Tonight against a Bucks side they matchup well against, I'm expecting a motivated effort and subsequent cover. Meanwhile, their hosts Milwaukee had a season-high three-game winning streak abruptly come to an end on Monday night with a 111-100 loss in Boston. The Bucks have been very inconsistent this season, and have not sustained any real momentum, thanks in part to a ugly 3-point defense that is ranked dead last in the league at 40.2 percent, and 19th in the league in opponents' overall shooting rate at 46.4 percent.MILWAUKEE is 7-23 ATS L/30 in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games. |
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12-06-17 | Grizzlies +2 v. Knicks | 88-99 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
The Knicks are expected to get back offensive threat Kristaps Porzingis for tonight's game vs the Grizzlies. He has had a lot of nagging injuries and is still not 100%. However, a player I have tabbed as even more important to the Knicks , is Tim Hardaway JR who maybe side lined for a couple of weeks. QUOTE: Tim was not only a scorer for us, he helped activity, drove to the basket," Knicks coach Jeff Hornacek said. END QUOTE: With Hardaway Jr, out I expect the Knicks flow maybe tampered with and the team as whole will take time to adjust to him being sidelined. I know the Grizzlies may not inspire bettors, because of an extended funk they suffered through recently , but they are viable opponents here and off a win last time out, and have played good ball for at least the last 14 quarters ( 3 games). Grizzlies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. NBA team vs the money line (MEMPHIS) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 42-20 SU L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Memphis to cover |
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12-05-17 | Wizards +6.5 v. Blazers | 106-92 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Washington was thoroughly embarrassed last night by the Utah Jazz 116-69 at Utah. The Wizards' point total matched the single-game low for any team in the NBA this season.After that shellacking you can bet this team will be primed to bounce back and get back some respect and redemption. Remember pros don't like to be embarrassed as it effects their future abilities to make a living in this league and for contract negotiations. Every player on this Wizards team has been a star at some level of their hoops careers and most of them have been winners. So needless to say its not like they won't be able to have the mindset needed to rebound in what could be described as desperation. I know John Wall has been injured and is a key cog for this Wizards team, but without him in the lineup the other night they still won vs Detroit by a 109 91 count and have the ability to play solid ball with the lineup they have entering this game. Meanwhile, Portland has lost two straight at home, and are struggling on offense at the moment, and look ripe for getting upset again. With that said, I'm recommending we back the Wizards to get is the cover here tonight. Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.Wizards are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.Trail Blazers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.Trail Blazers are 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 home games. WASHINGTON is 32-17 ATS L/49 after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Play on Washington to cover |
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12-05-17 | Jazz v. Thunder -7 | 94-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Utah comes in having won six consecutive games, including a 116-69 home win over the Washington Wizards on Monday. It takes a lot of energy to beat up on a team the way the Jazz did last night, and they could easily be running on fumes as they play back to back nights. I know that Oklahoma City seems to be treading water, but their are some positive statements and on floor flow, that look like Carmelo Anthony , Eddie George and Russell Westbrook might finally be starting to jell and find some rhythm together. For one Anthony is now playing a different role, and adjusting well to it , as he picks up on his assist ratio. Anthony is averaging 41.3 passes per game on the season, but he averaged 46 over the past two contests. QUOTE: "At this point, we're in the process of still trying to figure it out, still trying to see how we want to play," Anthony said. "As we're still trying different things out there, for me personally, it's about doing something different, seeing where the team really needs me on a night-to-night basis and just be willing to sacrifice. "Not every night do I have to score 20 or 30 points. I'm good with that. It's a good feeling as long as we're winning."END QUOTE. Those kinds of statement and thought processes are good for dressing room morale and translate well onto the court. With that said, I'm recommending we lay the lumber with the home team tonight. Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.Thunder are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. NBA team (UTAH) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 5-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 86% for bettors. Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover |
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12-04-17 | Wolves -2 v. Grizzlies | 92-95 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Memphis has lost 11 straight after Saturdays heart braking 116-111 defeat at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers. It was one of the Grizzlies best efforts of late, and the first time they cracked the 100 point plateau in scoring in 7 straight games. Tonight, exasperated, and feeling dejected, their desperation may turn into a defeatist mindset which will not serve them well vs a talented young Minnesota group, that is more than capable of taking a road win here as short favs. |
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12-04-17 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 211.5 | 113-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Chicago does not have the offensive firepower to score a lot of points and keep track with a side like the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Bulls have only eclipsed the 100 point plateau 5 times in their L/18 games, and average just 92.8 ppg at home this season with a overall 30th ranked offensive efficiency in the league . Needless to say it won't be hard to imagine the Bulls wanting to slow this tilt down to a crawl or just make it physically grueling on a veteran side. All in all I expect the total combined output of this affair to fall short of the lines-makers projections because of these key factors. |
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12-04-17 | Nets +1 v. Hawks | 110-90 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
The Atlanta Hawks go head to head with the Brooklyn Nets for the back end of a home-and-home set this Monday night.The Hawks took out the Nets Saturday with a 114-102 victory and now the men form Brooklyn come looking for revenge, and I'm betting they get it. BROOKLYN is 17-7 ATS L/24 in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent . Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS L/9 overall. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog, in December games are 9-21 L/5 seasons for 70% go against conversion rate.
Play on Brooklyn to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-03-17 | Spurs +8.5 v. Thunder | 87-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
The Spurs continue to play decent ball despite of being without Kawhi Leonard and are 15-7 SU without him in the lineup. The Spurs have won four consecutive games and 11 of their last 14 and this veteran laden team with one of the all time great NBA HC behind the bench are dangerous underdogs, and must be respected . Tonight against a very inconsistent Thunder side, that is still learning to play as a team behind the star trio Paul George and Carmelo Anthony added to superstar Russell Westbrook who are volatile in their coordination as a group. SAN ANTONIO is 23-8 ATS L/31 in December games .Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Thunder are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Spurs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Northwest. Play on San Antonio to cover |
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12-03-17 | Magic +1.5 v. Knicks | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
After facing the explosive Golden State Warriors last time out this trip to NY to play the Knicks will be like taking walk in Central Park. Meanwhile, the Knicks know the Magic are not an easy out especially playing without their leading scorer Porzingis. (25.8 ppg), who is injured ( ankle) and if he plays will see limited minutes. It must be noted that the last time the NYK played without their star they lost a 112-99 tilt at Orlando on Nov. 8th. With that said, and on the flip side look for emerging Magic star Aaron Gordon, to be the catalyst behind his teams cover and or win today. Note: the Magic are ranked 8th in the NBA in offensive production, and the Knicks are ranked 18th. New York also could be without first-round pick Frank Ntilikina, who also has a sprained ankle -- his left , and is listed as questionable. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW YORK) - struggling defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 47-83 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Orlando to cover |
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12-02-17 | Pelicans v. Blazers -3.5 | 123-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
The Blazers recently took four of five games on their last road trip and than came home in an emotional letdown state and looked asleep at the proverbial wheel in a home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.QUOTE: "The first game back home is a set-up for a letdown," point guard Damian Lillard said. "We talked about that before a game. We wanted to come out and play above that, but (the Bucks) came in ready. They played a great game, and we made one too many mistakes to give ourselves a great chance to win it." END QUOTE Now rested and getting used to home cooking again, I expect we will see the upward trending Portland Trailblazers at their best vs a Pelicans team that they look to get revenge on for a 103-93 loss to back on Oct 24th in the Bayou. NEW ORLEANS is 2-16 ATS L/18 in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs . Note: Anthony Davis if he plays tonight will be less 100%. Play on the Portland Blazers to cover |
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12-02-17 | Kings +12 v. Bucks | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
I know Sacramento may not inspire bettors but they have been very competitive of late, and have only failed to cover 2 of their L/8 games. Now with revenge on board for a recent loss to the Bucks where they were not competitive losing by a 112- 87 count, I'm betting they will be more prepared. That above mentioned loss came right after the Kings upset the Golden State Warriors , and they were in an emotional let down spot and the Bucks took advantage of it. I'm betting the Bucks downfall or inability to cover this DD line, is their rocky defensive rhythm as is evident by being ranked last in the league with a 17.5 percent offensive rebounding mark while ranking near the bottom in defensive rebounding (76.7 percent). The Kings have been working hard on this part of their game, and have shown tenacious work habits for a blue collar team and must be respected here today. Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Milwaukee.Road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Bucks HC Kidd is 19-40 ATS L/59 after 2 or more consecutive wins.MILWAUKEE is 3-15 ATS in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games .MILWAUKEE is 17-39 ATS L/56 as a favorite of 10 or more points. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog, in December games are just 8-21 SU L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors. Road underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 60-29 ATS L/21 seasons, for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover |
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12-02-17 | Kings v. Bucks UNDER 199.5 | 104-109 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My own projections on this game based on power rankings and system matchups tells me of a high probability situation that favors the OVER. The Bucks have gone Over in 11-1 of their last 12 vs. a team with a losing straight up record like the Kings. Meanwhile, the Kings have gone over in 5 of their L/6 , and from a divisional standpoint have cruised over the Total in 8 of their L/9 vs Central teams and have gone over in 6 of their L/8 on the road. both teams are playing decent ball at this time, and I'm betting they run at each other in a tilt that ends up being higher scoring than the lines-makers might anticipate. Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Milwaukee.Over is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings. MILWAUKEE in their L/27 games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more have seen a combined average score of 211.2 ppg get scored.
Play OVER |
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12-02-17 | Hawks +4.5 v. Nets | 114-102 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Brooklyn enters this game as weak hosts and are just 1-5 in its last six home games allowing a whopping 115.3 ppg overall at home in 9 games this season. After playing three straight grueling road games, and getting an underdog win last time out, I'm betting on Brooklyn not having top tier energy to deal with a rebuilding Atlanta side desperate for wins. Brooklyn's down fall today vs the spread will center around their energy levels and a 26th ranked 72.8 percent conversion rate at the charity stripe, which includes a below 70 percent conversion rate over the last 10 games. Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Home teams vs. the money line (BROOKLYN) - off an upset win as a road underdog, in December games are just 35-60 SU for a go against conversion rate of 63% L/5 seasons. Play on the Atlanta Hawks to cover |
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12-02-17 | Clippers +5.5 v. Mavs | 82-108 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
The Clippers are banged up and playing without four starters -- Blake Griffin (MCL sprain), Patrick Beverley (knee surgery), Danilo Gallinari (sprained ankle) and Milos Teodosic (plantar fascia). But despite of this according to my own power rankings and cross reference player system matchup are still a viable investment opportunity as a side wager on this line. The Clippers had won three straight until losing to Utah last time out , and are more than capable of keeping this close enough for a possible out right upset. The Clippers beat the Mavs 119-98 at home back on Nov 1. and despite of Dallas now having revenge on board have not been good bets in this spot in the past as is evident by HC Carlisle 9-21 ATS record in home games revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more. Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game which happened against Utah last time out.Mavericks are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Mavericks are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Pacific NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a terrible team ( 25% or less) are 26-6 SU L/21 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Clippers to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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12-01-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 193 | 95-79 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Memphis is desperate after losing 9 straight games. They know they have to up their tempo and get into an offensive flow. After going 6 straight games without breaching the 95 point plateau on offense a sense of urgency now permeates around the team. This is the second of back-to-back games against each other this Friday night at the FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tenn. The first meeting saw the Spurs grab a 104-95 win, which eclipsed the 194 point Total and similar score is not out of the question, and actually a high probability outcome according to my own numbers making this a viable OVER wager. SAN ANTONIO is 9-0 OVER L/9 in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points dating back to last season with a combined average of 206.6 ppg going on the board. MEMPHIS in 17 games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season have seen a combined average score of 199.3 ppg scored.SAN ANTONIO is 17-6 OVER L/23 when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points with a combined average score of 201.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after failing to cover the spread in 6 or more consecutive games are 37-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play on the OVER |
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12-01-17 | Wolves +5.5 v. Thunder | 107-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City since changing up the dynamic of the team in the off season are struggling as the big 3 of Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony just are not meshing in the way management had hoped. The Thunder have lost 5 of their L/6 and three straight overall, and are fade material vs a hard working and talented young Minnesota Wolves group.Minnesota beat the Thunder 115-113 at Oklahoma City in October. and must not be underestimated in this spot. The Timberwolves showed their abilities last time out knocking down a 120-102 victory over New Orleans on Wednesday . Minnesota is a conference-best 10-3 against the West. MINNESOTA is 17-6 ATS L/23 in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game.Timberwolves are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 24-3 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-30-17 | Bulls v. Nuggets UNDER 208.5 | 110-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
Chicago enters this game vs Denver averaging just 94.8 ppg on offense (worst in the league), and have failed to eclipse the 99 point plateau in 5 straight games, behind a 17th ranked pace, that should even slow down more tonight in the high altitudes of the Mile High city vs a team that they know they can't run and gun with. Meanwhile, the Nuggets own the 14th ranked offense, and the 13th ranked pace, so their in the middle of the pack , as far as speed and offensive production goes. What I'm betting happens tonight, is what most sides, with sluggish offenses do when they go into Denver, and that is play a conservative energy conserving style of basketball, that more often than not translates into a lower scoring game than many might anticipate. Under is 12-4 in Bulls last 16 vs. Western Conference.Under is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 vs. NBA Northwest.Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Under is 9-4 in Nuggets last 13 home games. CHICAGO is 45-20 UNDER L/65 versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 free throws/game or less with a combined average score of 199.4 ppg getting scored. CHICAGO in 8 in non-conference games this season have seen a combined average score of 196.3 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 23-9 UNDER L/32 after 2 or more consecutive losses dating back to last season with the combined average score of 200.6 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 65-26 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - an explosive offensive team (102 or less PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG), after scoring 90 points or less are 35-12 UNDER L/21 seasons for 75% conversion rate for Totals bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHICAGO) - off a home loss against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are 45-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for totals bettors. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-29-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 194 | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
HC Fizdale is no longer the coach of the Memphis Grizzlies after his team struggled for much of this season and on a current 8 game losing streak mostly because of offensive production problems . His firing came after he benched star forward Mac Gasol, which started the firestorm. Now with a lot to prove and 2 days rest I expect the Grizzlies new HC J.B. Bickerstaff and company to come out fired up tonight, and really push their pace up a few notches, in an effort to get a offensive flow going which I'm betting results in a higher scored than expected by the lines-makers. Over is 5-2 in Grizzlies last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.Over is 9-4 in Spurs last 13 vs. NBA Southwest.Over is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. SAN ANTONIO in their L/22 when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points have seen a combined average of 202 ppg scored. Memphis in 9 games vs winning sides this season have seen a combined average of 197.2 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after failing to cover the spread in 6 or more consecutive games are 25-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play OVER |
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11-28-17 | Bucks v. Kings +6 | 112-87 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
The Sacramento Kings carry positive momentum into their Tuesday night matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks and are showing competiveness especially on their own floor where they 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.The Kings are fresh their best game of this season, , after a a 110-106 road decision over the Golden State Warriors and are now full of confidence. Meanwhile, the Bucks are really getting frustrated and playing poorly. Antetokounmpo, their star and one of the best young players in the league has shown frustration with Milwaukee's inconsistency, when he was filmed swearing at assistant coach Sean Sweeney on Saturday during the Bucks' 121-108 loss to the Jazz in Utah. The kid should cool it, as a lot of the Bucks problems are based on his inconsistencies, as opposing defenses are figuring out ways to slow him down. With that said, I'm betting on the home team getting us the cover here tonight. NBA Road teams (MILWAUKEE) - an explosive offensive team (102 PPG) or more against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 18-46 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors. Play on Sacramento Kings to cover |
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11-28-17 | Suns v. Bulls UNDER 213 | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
Two rebuilding teams go head to head tonight when Phoenix visits the Chicago Bulls . With both teams defenses a big concern, I'm expecting both sides to play special attention to being stoppers and being physical, in a game I have pegged at staying under the total. Chicago is especially fragile as they rank last in the NBA scoring averaging just 94.3 ppg which makes them even more interested in turning this into a slow grinding affair. CHICAGO is 33-17 UNDER L/50 when playing against a team with a losing record with a combined average of 202 ppg going on the board and 20-7 UNDER versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game with a combined average score of 200.7 ppg going on the board and also 16-5 UNDER /21 in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average of 201.9 ppg getting scored.CHICAGO is 14-3 UNDER L/17 in home games in non-conference games . CHICAGO is 10-1 UNDER L/11 in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing against a terrible team (25% or less) are 25-5 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for Totals bettors. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHICAGO) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 36-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-28-17 | Heat v. Cavs UNDER 209.5 | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
The Cavs, who beat the 76ers 113-91 on Monday night in Philadelphia, will play consecutive nights for the first time since Oct. 28-29 and now this veteran laden team will be on tired legs and ready to slow things down again. Last night it was the Cavs ability to slow the flow of their younger opposition down, and come out of that game with a easy DD win. Tonight, I'm betting on the same tactics and game plan to make this into a conservative tilt, vs a Miami side that also practices a controlled style of defensive play behind key cog Hassan Whiteside. .Note: The Heat have held 4 of their L/5 opponents to under 98 points or less. While the Cavs have held 3 of their L/4 opponents, to 99 points or less. Miami is ranked 21st in the pace in the league, 7th best ppg allowed in the NBA and rank 26th in offensive points production. Cleveland ranks 12th in the league in pace. MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER L/10 in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) with a combined average of 193.5 ppg going on the board.MIAMI is 30-14 UNDER L/44 as a road underdog of 6 points or less with a combined average score of 194 ppg going on the score board. Under is 20-8 in Heat last 28 road games.Under is 3-0-1 in Cavaliers last 4 overall.Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games playing with no rest.Under is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings in Cleveland. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 73-27 UNDER for a 73% conversion rate for totals bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-27-17 | Lakers +4.5 v. Clippers | 115-120 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
The Clippers enter this game banged up and dealing with injuries, and already lost guard Patrick Beverley for the season following knee surgery. Yes, they have won two in a row, but beating Atlanta and Sacramento are not great resume builders, and I feel like their still not ready to reach any lofty heights any time soon with key players forward Danilo Gallinari (hip) and guard Milos Teodosic (foot) still out. Prior to this mini streak, they lost 9 straight, and allowed 110 plus points per game during that stretch which is atrocious for a defensive minded team. Meanwhile, the LA Lakers, enter this game well rested, after coming out and looking emotional drained last time out in loss to the lowly Kings. That defeat after consecutive wins vs the Denver Nuggets and Chicago Bulls in back to back home games. That is a key problems with some young teams in the NBA, and now they will be primed ready to get back to work . Note: Larry Nance Jr. should help the Lakers' overall level of play and is supposed to return from injury tonight. With that said, and according to my own matchup reference numbers this game should be closer to a pickem here on a neutral floor, thus giving us value with taking the points. Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Clippers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a close win by 3 points or less are 30-44 L/5 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Lakers to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-27-17 | Kings +14.5 v. Warriors | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
The lowly Kings enter this game knowing they handed Golden State one of its 15 losses last season, 109-106 in overtime in February. Nothing is impossible and no team in the NBA no matter how great they maybe is infallible , especially from an ATS perspective. I know that these teams are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, and at the opposite ends of the Pacific Division standings, with the Warriors having won six in a row at home while the last-place Kings have crapped out nine successive road tilts. However, despite of this, and also knowing the Warriors propensity to do just enough to get wins , and rest their stars against sides like this ,gives me confidence in recommending we take the points with a team that has nothing to lose in what many expect to be an inevitable beat down. Note: Kevin Durante, Draymond Green, and Steph Curry could be rested tonight, completely held out of the lineup or on the bench for much of this game because of nagging injuries and playing at less than 100%. NBA Home favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - good 3PT shooting team (=36.5% or better ) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5%or better), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team ( 5.5 or less reb/game) are just 14-51 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NBA Road underdogs (SACRAMENTO) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 23-4 ATS L/21 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Sacramento Kings to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-27-17 | Nets v. Rockets UNDER 228.5 | 103-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
The Rockets as we all know by now are an explosive offensive juggernaut, but their defensive 17.5 net rating is something that may be over looked by the average punter. Their ability to be stopper was on display last time out against the Knicks who scored 29 points over the first 7 1/2 minutes of that game , only to fall short of that mark in any of three following three quarters of action. Meanwhile, Brooklyn after struggling with D, of late, finally played the kind of game their coach wants from them more consistently holding the Memphis Grizzlies to 88 points in a win. Last night the Nets had success taking their time with their attack, and being selective with shots, and tonight I expect they will try to slow down the game via slower paced effort vs what they know is a dangerous run and gun opponent. I'm also betting on the Rockets D, showing us their under rated abilities as well in a tilt I have pegged to stay on the low side of the number. Note: Houston has held 4 of their L/7 opponents under 96 points or less. Under is 9-4-3 in Nets last 16 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1-1 in Nets last 6 road games.BROOKLYN in 7 games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season have seen a average combined score of 218 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BROOKLYN) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 34-8 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for Totals bettors. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BROOKLYN) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins are 57-24 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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11-27-17 | Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 224 | 113-91 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
The Philadelphia 76ers and their home crowd are going to be wild tonight with excitement as their team continues to grow and show competitiveness. Bigger and better things are on the horizon for the Sixers.. But first they have to deal with the Cavaliers. QUOTE: "Cleveland is going to come in, and it's going to be amazing for the building," coach Brett Brown said. "This building is wild. How about our fans? Are you kidding me? I can't even talk to my coaching staff sometimes and they're a foot from me. It's fantastic. What a great thing for our city." END QUOTE But now irrational exuberance may get the best of the Sixers, as a veteran laden Cleveland Cavaliers come to town, looking to slow down any early momentum the home team has by playing methodical slow paced style hoops, while saving their best for last quarter and a half. This I'm betting will curtail both teams scoring out put making this a much lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect . PHILADELPHIA is 18-5 UNDER L/23 in home games after a combined score of 235 points or more with a combined average of 199 ppg going on the board. PHILADELPHIA is 26-9 UNDER L/25 in home games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite with a combined average of 185.2 ppg going on the board .Under is 4-0-1 in Cavaliers last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 7-2 in 76ers last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Philadelphia. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CLEVELAND) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 25-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for Totals bettors. teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 40-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-26-17 | Heat v. Bulls +7 | 100-93 | Push | 0 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
The Miami Heat are expected to be missing their most important player when they take the court on Sunday afternoon vs the rebuilding Chicago Bulls. Hassan Whiteside, if he plays will not be 100% and may see more bench time than playing time today if he plays at all. He's the heartbeat of this Heat group, and without him on the court the Heat are vulnerable. I know the Bulls may not inspire confidence in bettors, with a 3-14 record on the season, but two of those wins have come at home, where they play today. With that said, I'm recommending we take the points with the host team. Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-25-17 | Clippers v. Kings +4.5 | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
The Sacramento Kings are retooling and rebuilding ,but have protected their home court well, and have won four of their past five at Golden 1 Center. Meanwhile, the LA Clippers, just ended a 9 game losing streak vs the lowly Atlanta Hawks, but overall have struggled mightily and don't deserve to road favs here of almost 5 points. That above mentioned losing streak included a season-ending injury to guard Patrick Beverley, a defensive specialist and has really hurt the Clippers. With that said, I'm betting on the Kings being very competitive tonight and getting us the all important cover. Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 PPG or more), after scoring 110 points or more are 114-47 SU dating back 21 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-25-17 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 229.5 | 95-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
The Golden State Warriors and the Pelicans will be playing their second game in two nights. Each is coming off a win on Friday and both will be on tired legs, and not ready or capable to run and gun. These teams did partake in a 128-120 slugfest in their first meeting this season, at New Orleans that Golden State won, but this time around , I expect a more conservative approach from the Pelicans. It must be noted that new Orleans has held their last two opponents to 91 points or less. On the flipside I'm betting Golden State underrated D , ranked 9th in the league in efficiency to stand tall and to slow down Pelicans stars Cousins and Davis . With the above scenarios playing out, I expect a score that does not eclipse the total. NEW ORLEANS is 33-19 UNDER L/51 in road games revenging a loss vs opponent with a combined average of 207.1 ppg going on the board. GOLDEN STATE is 20-7 UNDER L/27 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread with a combined average of 213.1 ppg going on the board. NBA team (GOLDEN STATE) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 47-12 L/20 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for totals bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 30-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for totals bettors. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 34-9 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-25-17 | Celtics -2 v. Pacers | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
The Boston Celtics (17-3), who have won 17 of 18 including a 118-103 win on Friday night against Orlando, travel to Indiana on Saturday as short road chalk . The Pacers have been playing strong ball, but last night were taken to the brink , eking out a 107-104 victory. Now on tired legs I'm betting they will have problems, dealing with what my own power rankings suggest is the superior side.Note: Pacers are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Celtics are 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win. BOSTON is 8-0 ATS L/8 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season and 8-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.BOSTON is 13-2 ATS L/15 versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season.BOSTON is 13-2 ATS L/15 in road games against Central division opponents. Home underdogs (INDIANA) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, in November games are 11-35 ATS L/21 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-25-17 | Magic +6 v. 76ers | 111-130 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
The Philadelphia 76ers and the visiting Orlando Magic on Saturday night are two teams playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum. The Sixer's have won 4 of their L/5 while Orlando has lost 7 straight. However, despite of their current runs, my own cross reference players and systems matchup statistics actually favor the downtrodden dog to cover. Orlando has won 4 straight meetings here in Philly and I'm betting this desperate team won't go easily in this tilt. 76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. NBA Road teams (ORLANDO) - after 7 or more consecutive losses, on Saturday games are 67-35 ATS L/21 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Orlando Magic to cover |
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11-25-17 | Spurs -1 v. Hornets | 106-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
The Charlotte Hornets come in to this back-to-back situation vs the visiting San Antonio Spurs in a letdown situation after an emotional and physical grueling 100-99 loss last night to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Meanwhile, the Spurs, are off 2 straight days off an will be energized for this tilt. With that said, I'm recommending we back a Spurs side that owns a one-sided season series 40-15 record, including five of their last six visits to Charlotte. CHARLOTTE is 21-35 ATS L/56 versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game.Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest.Hornets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days. are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on San Antonio to cover |
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11-24-17 | Raptors -1.5 v. Pacers | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Toronto had won four in a row until a 41-10 third-quarter meltdown in Madison Square Garden last time out saw them go down to defeat by a 108-100 score. Nothing surprises me in the NBA anymore, and even consistent sides like the Raptors fall into these types of lapses. Today, however, I expect Canada's only NBA team to come back looking for redemption vs a Indiana side they matchup very well against. I know Indiana has won four in a row and surprised a couple of teams as underdogs, but tonight, they won't sneak up on anyone, and will have the full attention of their dangerous hosts. Toronto has won nine of the last 11 meetings after taking two of three last season.Raptors are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Indiana. INDIANA is 1-12 ATS L/13 off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog .INDIANA is 9-22 ATS L/31 off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like Indiana - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 6-26 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams like Toronto - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog are 26-6 ATS L/21 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover |
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11-24-17 | Hornets v. Cavs UNDER 220.5 | 99-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
The Hornets and the Cavaliers meet again at Friday in Cleveland. both teams are on winning streaks. The last time these two sides played each other 222 combined points went on the board in a 115 -107 Cleveland win. Controlling or at least slowing LeBron James is critical to holding down the explosiveness of the Cavaliers, and the Hornets I'm betting will focus their attention on him, and playing better overall defense on the whole especially here on the road behind the 12th ranked pace in the league .QUOTE: "His big, big nights, which he's had against us, it's going to be the fast-break baskets, the second-chance baskets and the cuts," Clifford said prior to Cleveland's 115-107 win over the Hornets on Nov. 15. "That's how he gets from, he's averaging 28, that's how he's going to get to 38. You know, if you do a good job on those, then you hope he gets 28. You control what you can control but again, the great, great ones, you've got to take those other easy ones away." END QUOTE: With that said, Cleveland has been playing fast and furious of late, but the old guys now will be on tired legs, as they play their 8th game in 13 days, and with Charlotte looking to slow this game down, I'm betting on point production output in this tilt to me more muted than what might expect. CHARLOTTE is 25-11 UNDER L/36 revenging a home loss vs opponent with a combined average of 200 ppg going on the board. NBA team like Charlotte - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or less), dominant rebounding team (+5.5 reb/game or more ) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 53-24 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 695 conversion rate for totals bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 like Charlotte - after 3 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 39-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for 81% conversion rare for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-22-17 | Lakers -1 v. Kings | 102-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
The Lakers (8-10) enter into this tilt vs Sacramento off their second straight win. Last night Los Angeles posted a 103-94 home victory over the Chicago Bulls on Tuesday in a come from behind effort and very much look to be the superior team entering this tilt. Last night they controlled the boards , with a 54-39 rebounding advantage, and are currently ranked 4th in the NBA . thanks to those efforts the Lakers defensive rating, has them ranked 4th as well , as their top tier abilities fly under the radar of most pundits. Meanwhile, the Kings do not rebound well as is evident by giving up 7.8 more per game than their opponents, for last place in the NBA. With Sacramento also expected to play its third straight game without second-leading scorer Buddy Hield (11.6 points per game), they are at a disadvantage tonight from multiple perspectives including their ability to outscore an opponent behind a lowly 93.2 points per game which is the worst output in the NBA. SACRAMENTO is 1-8 ATS L/9 vs lower tier defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season (this is mostly because of their won lack of scoring power) NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Lakers - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, in November games are 71-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Play on the Lakers to cover 1 unit reg selection |
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11-22-17 | Bulls +9 v. Jazz | 80-110 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
The Bulls and Jazz enter this game both struggling. Both are desperate for wins, and both I expect will play hard tonight. The Jazz have dropped eight of their past 10 games, including a 107-86 road loss against the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday and without top tier center Rudy Gobert look like a key component has their usually well disciplined team in disarray . Meanwhile, visiting Chicago is 0-2 on a four-game trip after losing by a 103-94 count to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. The Bulls threw away a 19-point second-half lead against the Lakers, which was embarrassing for them. Like the call from the French revolution, which said " Heads Will roll". That's exactly the situation now in Bulls land, and this group of players need to stand up and get some respect for themselves immediately . These are professionals that know that this will have an adverse financial effect on their careers going forward and how they are looked as players if they don't bounce back and make amends for that ugly 2nd half effort last night. The Bulls won both of last season's meetings and have prevailed in three straight meetings and are my pick to cover here. Bulls are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.Jazz are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Jazz are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Eastern Conference.Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. NBA Road underdogs like Chicago- off 2 or more consecutive road losses, playing on back-to-back days are 67-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover 1 unit reg selection |