01-09-16 |
Georgia v. Ole Miss -2.5 |
Top |
71-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Ole Miss Rebels.
The Rebels lost their SEC opener on the road at Kentucky, but bounced back with a big home win over Alabama on Thursday. They will host the Georgia Bulldogs tonight, and Georgia is coming off a home win over Missouri. It seems a little surprising that Mississippi is just a slight favorite, considering that Georgia is winless on the road. The Bulldogs lost their most recent road game at Florida by a score of 77-63.
Mississippi is 6-0 at home, and has averaged 82.7 points on 45.6 percent shooting in those games. Georgia has failed to cover in five straight on the road, and has average just 62.5 points on 40 percent shooting so far on the road this season.
The Rebels out-rebounded Alabama 37-30 in their last game, and F Sebastian Saiz pulled down 16 of those boards. Mississippi has averaged over 37 rebounds at home, while the Bulldogs have averaged fewer than 30 on the road.
Take MISS.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-09-16 |
Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 202.5 |
Top |
108-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@PHI to go UNDER the total.
The Raptors are locking it down on defense lately, coming off a pair of impressive road wins. They allowed an average of 81 points in wins over Washington and Brooklyn. They face the league's worst offensive team tonight in Philly, and we should expect points to be hard to come by for the home team. The Sixers have managed to to win two of their last six, which is actually pretty food for them. They failed to score 100 points in all four of those losses though, and they are unlikely to avoid another defeat here against the Raptors. Toronto has failed to reach the total in four straight road games versus teams with a losing record. The total for tonight's game is higher than it was in the last four meetings between these two teams, and I'm not convinced that Philly can score enough points to reach this inflated number.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-09-16 |
St. Mary's -7.5 v. Pepperdine |
Top |
64-67 |
Loss |
-106 |
14 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels.
St. Mary's is still unranked, despite a 14-1 record, with all 14 of those wins coming by a double digit margin. They are coming off a 73-48 road win at Loyola Marymount, and they will be on the road at Pepperdine this afternoon. There's no doubt that the Wave are a better team than the Lions, but Pepperdine just barely beat them at home in overtime last Saturday. Since then they played another close game against the 3-11 Pacific Tigers. The Gaels come in as the nation's best shooting team hitting 54.9 percent from the field. They rank second in three point field goal percentage, hitting 45.5 percent from beyond the arc. St. Mary's is 19-7 ATS in it's last 26 versus the West Coast, and it has covered in five of it's last six on the road. The Gaels should be looking at another double digit win here.
Take SMU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-09-16 |
Texas A&M v. Tennessee +5.5 |
Top |
92-88 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Tennessee Volunteers.
The Vols will host #21 ranked Texas A&M on Saturday, and Tennessee is getting a handful of points as a home dog. The Aggies just narrowly defeated Mississippi State on Wednesday, winning by a score of 61-60. Tennessee is 8-0 at home, and they are coming off an 83-69 win over Florida. They cleaned up on the boards in that game, out-rebounding Florida 49-40. These teams have a history of playing close games, and two of the last four games were decided in overtime. The underdog covered in all four of those games. The Vols have won seven of their last 10 home games against ranked teams, and each of those three losses came against teams ranked in the top three. I'll take a generous spread with the home team.
Take TENN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-08-16 |
Cavs v. Wolves OVER 195 |
Top |
125-99 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@MIN to go OVER the total. The Cleveland Cavaliers are winners of five straight and they've averaged 121.5 over their last two games. Lebron James scored 34 points in a 121-115 win against Washington Wednesday and Kyrie Irving was not far behind with a season-high 32 points on 14-of-22 shooting. Cleveland is third best in the league in three points made with 10.1 per game and should be able to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is allowing 8.7 three point shots per game on average. The Minnesota Timberwolves are off an extremely low-scoring affair when they lost 78-74 to the Nuggets two days ago, but Cleveland has hardly impressed on defense of late giving up an average of 107.5 points in its last two games. The Cavs have seem more intent on outscoring opponents lately rather than beating them with a solid defense, and that's a gameplan they're more than likely to take into this contest as well. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-07-16 |
UL-Lafayette v. Arkansas-Little Rock -7 |
Top |
57-77 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Arkansas Little Rock Trojans.
The Trojans have had a spectacular start to the season, winning 12 of 13 games. Their only loss came on the road at Texas Tech, and so far they have manhandled inferior opponents. They have kicked off conference play with consecutive road wins, and now they return home to host the 5-6 Ragin' Cajuns. Louisiana Lafayette has lost three straight on the road to Pepperdine, UCLA and Louisiana Tech. They've also failed to cover the spread in five of their last six on the road, and I don't think they're getting near enough points here in tonight's game. The Trojans have scored an average of 81.5 points on 49.6 percent shooting at home so far, and they are shooting almost 80 percent from the charity stripe. This game should be a double digit blowout win for the home team.
Take UALR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-06-16 |
Grizzlies v. Thunder OVER 199.5 |
Top |
94-112 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MEM@OKC to go OVER the total.
The Grizzlies have played well defensively lately, but they face a tough test on the road at Oklahoma City tonight. The Thunder have scored an average of more than 115 points while winning four of their last five. These teams have faced each other twice already this season, and both of those games went way over the total. The most recent meeting was a 125-88 Oklahoma City victory at Memphis. They've gone over in 17 of the last 25 meetings in Oklahoma City. The Thunder have not looked all that impressive on defense lately, surrendering more than 100 points in six of their last seven overall, and losing their last game 116-104 at home to Sacramento. The total in tonight's game is significantly lower than it has been in the Thunder's previous 10 games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-06-16 |
Texas Tech +10.5 v. Iowa State |
Top |
69-76 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 39 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Texas Tech had cruised through non-conference play, winning 10 of 11 games. The only loss during that span came by a score of 73-63 to Utah in Puerto Rico. They looked pretty good in a 82-74 win over Texas in their BIG12 opener, and prior to that they beat Richmond and Arkansas Little Rock by double digits. The Cyclones have had their moments, and they come in ranked #13 overall. While they've won 11 of their 13 games, they have not been very consistent. They were trailing Iowa by 21 points on their home floor back in December, but rallied to win that game by a score of 83-82. They've also won close games against Cincinnati and Colorado by a combined seven points, and when they've faced inferior opponents the results have not been impressive. They are asked to cover double digits against a Red Raiders team that is 6-0 ATS in it's last six, and 6-2 ATS in it's last eight versus BIG12 teams.
Take Texas Tech.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-06-16 |
Cavs v. Wizards UNDER 199.5 |
Top |
121-115 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@WAS to go UNDER the total.
The Cavs are rolling, coming into Washington as winners of four straight. During that span they've held opponents to an average of 90.75 points per game during that span. That's not much of a surprise considering that Cleveland is ranked 3rd overall in the NBA with an opponent's scoring average of just 94.7 points per game. Washington hasn't been very good defensively this season, but it's shown some signs of improvement in recent games. The Wizards have held the opposition to fewer than 100 points in three straight games, but have just one win to show for it. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, with 12 of the last 16 meetings failing to reach the total. The Wizards have also gone under in each of their last five home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-05-16 |
South Carolina v. Auburn +6 |
Top |
81-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Auburn Tigers. The South Carolina Gamecocks are still undefeated, but I think they are a little overrated heading into a tough road game against an SEC rival tonight. Their 13-0 record looks impressive, but they've had a soft schedule, and tonight's game should prove to be their toughest to date. Auburn is coming off an 83-77 win over Tennessee in it's SEC opener, and the Tigers are 5-1 at home. They've won six of their last seven versus South Carolina, covering the spread in six of those contests. Keep in mind that this Gamecocks team got off to a hot start last season, winning 9-of-12 in non-conference play, only to lose six of their first seven versus SEC teams. This looks like a generous cushion for the Tigers at home, and I think they'll give the Gamecocks a run for their money. Take AUB. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-05-16 |
Richmond v. Rhode Island -3.5 |
Top |
65-77 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Rhode Island Rams.
The Richmond Spiders are coming off back to back losses to St. Joseph's and Texas Tech, and they face another tough opponent on the road in Rhode Island tonight. The Rams are 7-2 at home, and they are coming off an 85-57 win over the Saint Louis Billikens. They shot 50 percent from the field, and 44 percent from beyond the arc in that game, out-rebounding Saint Louis 38-26. Richmond has really struggled from the free throw line on the road, hitting just over 50 percent while losing two of three. The Rams have defeated Richmond in each of the last two seasons, winning 79-74 at Richmond last year, and 66-43 at home the year before. I can't see any reason for Richmond to expect a better result this time around.
Take URI.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-04-16 |
Grizzlies v. Blazers OVER 193 |
Top |
91-78 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MEM@POR to go OVER the total.
The Grizzlies lost at Utah on Saturday by a score of 92-87, and they are on the road at Portland tonight. The bookmakers are expecting another low scoring game here tonight, but I don't think the Blazers are going to be able to match the defensive intensity that the Grizzlies faced in Utah. The total for this game is incredibly low, perhaps due to the fact that the Grizz carry a reputation from past seasons. They continue to cash in at a high rate for under bettors, but a close examination of this number reveals that the bookmakers may be overcompensating. The under in 6-4-1 in the Grizzlies last 11 overall, but not one of those games saw a total listed below 190. Two of those “unders” saw more than 190 points scored. The Blazers have gone over in five of their last six when playing on back to back nights, and four of their last five versus Memphis. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-04-16 |
Pacers v. Heat -125 |
Top |
100-103 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 17 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Miami Heat. The Heat are coming off a dominant 97-75 win at Washington on Sunday afternoon, and they are back home to host the Pacers tonight. This is a bug game for both teams, and Chris Bosh certainly sounds like he's ready to play: "We'll be ready for (the Pacers). We owe them, and we know they're going to come into ready to play. It's going to be ready to play." said Bosh.
The Heat are 14-7 at home, and they've won four of their last five home games versus Indiana. Home court has been a big factor in this series, with the home team covering in eight of the last 10 meetings. With that being the case, I think we're getting a great price on the Heat here, as just a slight favorite on the moneyline. The Pacers have lost six of their last seven road games, and five of their last eight overall. While Paul George has totaled 63 points in his last two games, he's averaged fewer than 15 points in his last three road games.
The Heat boast the NBA's 2nd ranked defense, holding opponents to just 94.5 points per game. A big reason for their success has been the play of Hassan Whiteside, who had 13 rebounds and six blocked shots in yesterday's win at Washington.
Take MIA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-04-16 |
Raptors v. Cavs OVER 191.5 |
Top |
100-122 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@CLE to go OVER the total.
The Toronto Raptors took a 12-point lead to the locker room at halftime in their home game versus Chicago on Sunday, but the Bulls rallied, scoring 67 second half points to come back and win 115-113. Toronto will be on the road tonight in Cleveland, and I think the total for this game looks a little low. The Raptors were one of the best defensive teams in the league early on in the season, but since the injury to DeMarre Carroll, the defense has suffered. Four of the last six meetings between these teams have gone over the total, and tonight's total is lower than it was in all six of those games. In fact these teams have seen at least 192 points scored in each of the last seven meetings. The Raptors have gone over in four straight on the road, while Cleveland has gone over in eight of it's last 11 when playing on one day's rest.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-03-16 |
Wake Forest +14.5 v. Louisville |
Top |
57-65 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
The Louisville Cardinals come into Sunday's game against Wake Forest with an 11-2 record, but most of those wins came against inferior opponents. They've faced two quality opponents, losing both games to Michigan State and Kentucky. Louisville is asked to cover double digits at home here despite missing their starting PG and second leading scorer Trey Lewis. He suffered a severe ankle sprain in Friday's practice, and coach Rick Pitino didn't sound optimistic about his team's situation: "We are behind the 8-ball with no backup point," Pitino said. "We will see with practice what to do. Levitch is option one. Ryan off redshirt option two. There is no foreseeable third option." Wake Forest has been a good bet as an underdog, going 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games versus a team with a winning straight up record. Louisville has been putting up big numbers, but those are a little inflated due to their soft schedule. The one area where they haven't looked so strong is at the free throw line, hitting just 66.7 percent at home. Wake Forest is shooting 72.8 percent from the charity stripe on the road.
Take WAKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-03-16 |
Heat v. Wizards UNDER 198.5 |
Top |
97-75 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIA@WAS to go UNDER the total. Recent head-to-head meetings between the Miami Heat and the Washington Wizards have been high-scoring affairs with six straight going over the total. Both teams seem pretty zoned in on defense at the moment though, and I don't see this game climbing over the set total. The under is 5-1 in the Wizards last six overall and they held Orlando to 5-of-20 shooting from behind the arc in a 103-91 win on New Years Day. The Heat meanwhile held Dallas to 36.4% shooting from the field in a 106-82 win on the same day, and the under is 21-9-1 in the Heat's last 31 overall. They have the second-ranked defense in the league giving up just 95.1 points per game on average, and an injury-ridden Washington team is likely to struggle to put up points on the board tonight. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-02-16 |
Gonzaga v. San Francisco +14 |
Top |
102-94 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs will be a double digit favorite on the road in San Francisco tonight, coming off a 79-79 road win over Santa Clara. The Bulldogs are 11-3 overall, and they have won both their road game so far this season. They come into tonight's game riding a five game winning streak, but it's not all good news for Gonzaga. Their big man Przemek Karnowski for the rest of the season with a back injury, and their young guards have struggled. This team is really missing the experience of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell. Pangos scored 17 points in an 81-70 win over the Dons when Gonzaga played at San Francisco last season. They are asked to cover an even bigger spread this time around, and this team is nowhere near as skilled as it was then. In fact this enormous number makes very little sense when you consider that Gonzaga is 2-8-1 ATS in it's last 11 road games, and 4-11 ATS in it's last 15 games against San Francisco.
Take SF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-02-16 |
76ers v. Clippers UNDER 209.5 |
Top |
99-130 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@LAC to go UNDER the total.
The Sixers came into LA as winners of two of their previous three, which is pretty huge when you consider they've won just three games total all year. They lost to the Lakers last night though, scoring just 84 points on 36.9 percent shooting. I can't see how anyone could expect them to do any better tonight, playing the Clippers in their second game in as many nights. The bookmakers seem pretty optimistic though, listing a grossly inflated total for this game. The Clippers have won five straight, and they've held opponents to an average of 97 points during that span. The Sixers are the lowest scoring team in the NBA by far, and aren't likely to contribute much offense here. The Clippers have gone under in four of their last five home games, and the under is 23-8-2 in their last 33 home games versus a team with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-02-16 |
Texas v. Texas Tech -4 |
Top |
74-82 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The Texas Longhorns will come into this rivalry game against the Red Raiders without their leading scorer center Cameron Ridley. They didn't fare well without him in their last game, a 71-66 home loss to Connecticut. They lost the battle on the boards to the Huskies (36-34), and rebounding is going to be a challenge here against Texas Tech. The Longhorns have a bigger fan base, and that's often resulted in them being overrated when the two teams meet. This is evidenced by the fact that Texas Tech is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Texas Tech is 8-0 at home this season, and it has covered the spread in each of the last six of those games. Their last two games were particularly impressive, beating Richmond by 15 points, and ending the unbeaten run of Arkansas Little Rock. They slaughtered the Spiders on the glass, out-rebounding Richmond 43-20. They shot 30-of-58 (51.7 percent) from the field in that game, winning 85-70. They should be able to handle a short-handed Texas team today.
Take TTU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-01-16 |
76ers v. Lakers UNDER 206 |
Top |
84-93 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@LAL to go UNDER the total. The Philadelphia 76ers have recorded two of their three wins this season within their last three games, and they must like their chances when travelling to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers Friday night as well. The Lakers ended a four-game skid with a 112-104 win at Boston Wednesday though, and this looks like it will be a low-scoring contest between two teams both eyeing their first back-to-back win this season. The 76ers came out ahead with a 103-91 victory when the teams met at Philadelphia on Dec. 1, and low-scoring games have been the norm in recent meetings. The Under is 4-1-1 in both the last six meetings overall and the last six meetings at Staples Center. Philadelphia is the worst offensive team in the league averaging just 92.5 points per game and Los Angeles the third worst at 96.8 points per game, and while neither team is particularly stingy on defense the pure lack of offensive talent should be enough to see this game stay under the total. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
01-01-16 |
Utah -3.5 v. Stanford |
Top |
68-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 28 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on the Utah Utes.
The Utes have always been a better home team than they have been on the road, but this year's Utes might be the best team Larry Krystkowiak has ever coached. They sure looked like world beaters in a 77-75 win over Duke at MSG. They will open PAC12 play on the road at Stanford, where they have not done well in previous seasons. The Cardinal have already lost a couple of home games though, and I haven't been impressed with their recent play. They have been brutal in conference play, failing to cover in 20 of their last 27 versus PAC12 teams. Utah has shot 55.4 percent from the field, scoring an average of 85.4 point over it's last five games. During that span Stanford has scored just 71 points per game on 42.9 percent shooting. The Utes also have a huge edge in free throw shooting, hitting 74.1 percent in comparison to 65.8 percent by Stanford. Utah has hit 81 percent from the free throw line on the road.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-31-15 |
BYU v. St. Mary's -5.5 |
Top |
74-85 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels.
The Gaels are 11-1 straight up, and 7-0 at home. Their only defeat came in a close game decided by just four points at Cal. They host BYU tonight, and the Cougars have failed to impress, and they are 0-3 on the road. BYU lost 82-77 at St. Mary's last year, and it's pretty obvious that this year's Gaels team is vastly improved, while the Cougars don't look as good as they did a year ago. St. Mary's ranks 5th nationally in opponent's scoring average, first in field goal percentage (.538), fourth in assists and second in three point field goal percentage (.452). Those numbers are even more impressive at home, where they have covered in eight of their last 10 games, and 20 of their last 27. I think the only reason why the Cougars aren't a bigger dog here, is that their school has a strong basketball history and plenty of name recognition. That isn't going to help them against a St. Mary's team that appears to be far better in all aspects of the game.
Take SMU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-30-15 |
Nevada v. New Mexico -7 |
Top |
76-88 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New Mexico Lobos.
The Lobos have lost four straight, but three of those losses came in the Diamondhead Classic Tournament in Hawaii. They are back on their home court tonight, hosting the Nevada Wolfpack, and I expect New Mexico to get back on track against an inferior opponent. The Lobos are 6-1 at home so far, with impressive wins over rivals New Mexico State and UNI. The Wolpack have lost four of five on the road, and were beaten by a whopping 19 points at Cal State Fullerton. New Mexico averages 81.6 points per game on 50.9 percent shooting at home, while the Wolfpack are shooting just 37.4 percent, scoring an average of 71 on the road. Nevada has failed to cover in four straight against teams from the Mountain West, and it should probably be a double digit dog here.
Take UNM.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-30-15 |
Suns v. Spurs UNDER 197 |
Top |
79-112 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHO@SA to go UNDER the total.
The Phoenix Suns are coming into San Antonio as losers of five straight, and they will be a double digit dog in this contest. Their leading scorer Eric Bledsoe suffered a knee injury on the day after Christmas, and will miss the rest of the season. Scoring points won't be easy here against the Spurs, who are by far the best defensive team in the NBA, allowing opponents to average just 88 points per game. Previous meetings between these two teams have been low scoring, with each of the last five failing to reach the total. The Suns have scored an average of just 87.6 points over that span. Phoenix has also seen four of it's last five trips to San Antonio fall short of the number.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-30-15 |
Warriors v. Mavs +7 |
Top |
91-114 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 43 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Mavs.
Dallas will host the Golden State Warriors tonight, and the Mavs are getting a bunch of points at home. As good as the Warriors have been this season, I think they have become a bit overvalued. They didn't look all that impressive for most of their last game at home to Sacramento. Steph Curry was held scoreless in the first quarter, and the Kings led by three at the half. Curry missed practice on Tuesday, and there is a good chance he's going to be out for this game against Dallas. The Mavs are a solid team with a 9-5 record at home, and they've covered four straight in Dallas. It's going to be tough for the Warriors to cover this big number on the road without a healthy Curry.
Take DAL.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-30-15 |
Wizards v. Raptors -5.5 |
Top |
91-94 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 16 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Toronto Raptors.
The Raptors host the Wizards north of the border tonight, and this looks like a good spot to back the Dinosaurs at home. Toronto is getting healthier, with center Jonas Valanciunas returning to the lineup to play 21 minutes in Chicago on Sunday. The Wizards aren't quite as fortunate, with Bradley Beal, Dwight Gooden, Gary Neal and Nene. Washington shot just 39.1 percent from the field in a home loss to the Clippers on Sunday, and they've been struggling on defense all year. They rank 25th in the league allowing opponents to average 104.8 points per game. The Raptors on the other hand are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 4th allowing an average of 96.6 points per game. The Raptors haven't forgotten about last year's early exit at the hands of these Wizards, and they will look to continue their regular season dominance, winning four straight and eight of the last nine against Washington.
Take TOR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-29-15 |
Cavs v. Nuggets OVER 197 |
Top |
93-87 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@DEN to go OVER the total.
The Cleveland Cavaliers had lost back to back games before winning in Phoenix last night by a score of 101-97. They play their second game in as many nights on the road at Denver tonight, and I think we'll see a high scoring battle. Cleveland is one of the best defensive teams in the league, but they might not be quite as motivated to lock it down here in the high altitude of Denver in the second game of a back to back. They also might not need to, as Denver ranks near the bottom of the league in opponent's scoring average, allowing 103.9 points per game. The Nuggets have lost five of their last six, allowing over 100 points in four of those five losses. Only one of the last seven meetings between these teams has gone over, but the total in each of those games was higher than 200. Tonight's number is much lower, and four of the last five meetings saw at least 200 points scored.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-29-15 |
Richmond v. Texas Tech -4.5 |
Top |
70-85 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The Red Raiders have won nine of 10 overall, and they are still undefeated at home. They host the Richmond Spiders tonight, only asked to cover a handful of points. I don't expect this game to be quite as close as the betting line suggests. Richmond is 1-1 on the road, with a 20-point loss at Florida. They are going to be facing a Texas Tech front court with a big size advantage, and I think they are going to get killed on the glass. The Red Raiders are averaging 36 rebounds per game at home, while Richmond has averaged just 27.5 on the road. The home team also has an advantage at the free throw line, averaging 72.3 percent at home, while the Spiders are shooting just 58.2 percent from the line on the road. The Spiders have failed to cover in four of their last five versus teams from the BIG12, while Texas Tech is 5-0 ATS in it's last five home games.
Take TTU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-28-15 |
Kings v. Warriors UNDER 221.5 |
Top |
103-122 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SAC@GS to go UNDER the total.
The Warriors are the NBA's highest scoring team, averaging a whopping 114 points per game. They host the Sacramento Kings tonight, and everyone is expecting this one to be a high scoring battle. I think the bookmakers were perhaps a little too optimistic when they listed the opening total at 223. Sharp money has since pushed the number down a few points, but I think any number over 220 is just too inflated. Golden State has played back to back low scoring games against Cleveland and Utah, and they played phenomenal defense allowing an average of 84 points in those games. The Kings aren't known for their defense, but they haven't seen more than 220 points scored in any of their last nine games. The Kings have gone under in five straight on the road.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-28-15 |
Cavs v. Suns UNDER 202.5 |
Top |
101-97 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@PHO to go UNDER the total.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are struggling on offense, coming off back to back losses at Golden State and Portland. They are facing another Western Conference team tonight in Phoenix, and the Suns are really struggling, losers of 15 of their last 20 overall. They've scored and average of just 96 points while losing their last four, and head coach Jeff Hornacek is rumored to be on the hot seat. Making matters worse, their leading scorer Eric Bledsoe suffered a serious knee injury in the loss to Philly on Saturday, and will be out indefinitely. Cleveland ranks third in the NBA allowing opponents to average just over 95 points per game, and they've gone under in 11 of their last 12 meetings with Phoenix.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-28-15 |
Davidson +9.5 v. California |
Top |
60-86 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Davidson Wildcats.
Davidson is a double digit dog on the road at California tonight, and I can't quite see how anyone can expect Cal to cover such a big number. If you look at their schedule, they've looked pretty pedestrian at home, despite an 8-0 record. They beat Seattle by 14, East Carolina by eight, and IW by just a dozen. The Wildcats are in a different class than any of those teams. They are 8-2 overall, and leading scorer Jack Gibbs ranks third in the country with over 26 points per game. He is coming off a 41 point performance in the win over Morehead State last week. Davidson has been a great bet on the road, covering in 21 of it's last 27 road games. Cal has failed to cover in four of it's last five at home.
Take DAV.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-28-15 |
Raptors v. Bulls OVER 196 |
Top |
97-104 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 60 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@CHI to go OVER the total.
The Raptors are coming off back to back wins over Milwaukee and Dallas, and they scored an average of 107 points in those games. Toronto actually ranks higher defensively than it does offensively, but their best defender (DeMarre Carroll) remains sidelined with an injury. The Bulls used to be one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, but that isn't the case this season. Chicago has allowed opponents to average more than 100 points per game this season, and they are missing their best defender, former Defensive Player of the Year Joakim Noah. These teams have gone over the total in four of the last five meetings, and the Bulls have gone over in six straight versus Eastern Conference teams.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-28-15 |
Lakers v. Hornets UNDER 202 |
Top |
98-108 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAL@CHA to go UNDER the total.
The Lakers will play their second game in as many nights on the road in Charlotte, and they will be a double-digit dog to the Hornets. Charlotte is 12-5 at home, but has failed to score 100 points in six of it's last seven overall. The Hornets rank among the best in the NBA on defense, holding opponents under 100 points per game. They've failed to reach the total in six of their last eight versus the Lakers. LA has failed to score 100 points in five of it's last six overall, and the Lakers are averaging just 96.2 points per game (29th in the NBA). The Hornets have gone under in five of their last six home games, and five straight at home versus teams with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-27-15 |
Lakers v. Grizzlies UNDER 198 |
Top |
96-112 |
Loss |
-111 |
16 h 26 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAL@MEM to go UNDER the total.
The Grizzlies finished last season ranked second in the NBA with an opponent's scoring average of 95.1 points per game. They haven't been quite the defensive powerhouse this season, but after a terrible start they show signs of turning it around. Memphis has held five of it's last six opponents below 100 points, however it still managed to lose four of those games. The Grizz should be able to get back on track against the Lakers, who have lost four of their last five, scoring an average of just 88 points during that span. The Lakers were scoring more than their share of points at the beginning of the year, but have since struggled, now ranking 28th in the NBA scoring just over 96 points per game. Six of the last nine meetings between the two teams have gone under, and the Grizzlies have failed to reach the total in 35 of their last 51 home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-26-15 |
Cavs v. Blazers UNDER 198 |
Top |
76-105 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@POR to go UNDER the total.
The Cavs came up short, losing 89-83 at Golden State on Christmas Day, but they will have an excellent chance to bounce back tonight in Portland. The Blazers have lost five straight, failing to score 100 points in four of those five games. The Cavs are the best defensive team in the Eastern Conference, holding opponents to just 94.9 points per game. They looked impressive last night, holding the NBA's best team, and highest scoring offense to just 89 points on 41 percent shooting. They Blazers are hoping Damian Lillard can return after missing the last two games with plantar fasciitis. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, and they've failed to reach the total in each of the last five meetings in Portland. The Cavs have gone under in five straight on the road. All five Christmas day games went under, and it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see a slow pace here just 24 hours later.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-26-15 |
Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 195.5 |
Top |
109-104 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LAC@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Utah Jazz have really missed Rudy Gobert, but they look like they've rediscovered their defensive prowess in back to back home wins over Phoenix and Denver. They allowed less than 90 points in each of those games, and they've host the Clippers tonight, with LA coming off a 94-84 win over the Lakers last night. These teams have a history of playing lose scoring games, with six of the last eight meetings failing to reach the total. The Clippers have gone under in each of their last five games when playing the second game of a back to back. The Jazz have gone under in four of their last five home games, and 11 of their last 15 versus Western Conference teams. All five Christmas day games went under, and it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see a slow pace here just 24 hours later.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-26-15 |
Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 194.5 |
Top |
111-90 |
Loss |
-102 |
6 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOR@MIL to go UNDER the total.
The Raptors are in Milwaukee on Saturday, and they will be a slight favorite versus the Bucks. Toronto ranks 4th in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, allowing just 96 points per game. The Bucks rank 26th in the NBA in scoring, averaging just over 96 points per game. We've seen a trend of low scoring games in previous meetings between these two teams, as they've gone under in four straight, and six of the last eight meetings in Milwaukee. The Raptors have gone under in six of their last eight road game, while Milwaukee has failed to reach the total in four straight versus teams with a winning record. All five Christmas day games went under, and it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see a slow pace here just 24 hours later.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-26-15 |
Louisville v. Kentucky -2.5 |
Top |
73-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
34 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Kentucky Wildcats.
The Wildcats will host the Louisville Cardinals in a huge rivalry game at Rupp Arena on Boxing Day, and Kentucky has slipped all the way to #12 in the rankings after losing in New York to the Buckeyes. At first glance it might look like a good spot to go against a Kentucky team that appears vulnerable, but I am not about to go against a team that has won 96 of it's last 100 home games under coach Cal.
Not when they are only asked to cover a couple points, and not even against a Louisville team that leads the nation in scoring margin (+30.2) and rank second in field goal percentage (.512). Why not? Well Louisville has only faced one ranked team, and that was a 71-67 loss at Michigan State. The majority of the Cardinals wins have come at home against inferior opponents.
The Wildcats have beaten Duke, and won by double digits at home against a very good Arizona State team. Freshman guard Jamaal Murray scored a career high 33 points against Ohio State, hitting 7-of-9 from beyond the arc. I still believe Kentucky is a deeper, more talented team that should be a far bigger favorite on it's home floor.
Take UK.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-25-15 |
Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 212 |
Top |
83-89 |
Win
|
100 |
51 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLE@GS to go UNDER the total.
The Warriors look unstoppable, coming into this Christmas Day game against Cleveland with a 27-1 record. They lead the NBA in scoring, averaging over 115 points per game. Of course this is a rematch of last year's NBA Finals, and we saw some close hard fought games in that series, with four of the six games falling short of the total. Even the two games that did go over, didn't see enough points to reach the inflated total we see in this game, even with overtime in Games 1 and 2.
As good as the Warriors look on offense, Cleveland has been locking it down on defense. The Cavs rank third in the NBA allowing opponents to average just 95.2 points per game. They've won six straight, and have surrendered just 87 points per game during that span. They've gone under in seven of their last 10, and only one of those games saw enough points to go over this game's total.
The Warriors also showed some defensive prowess, holding the Jazz to just 85 points in their last game. They've been a good bet to go under at home. The under is 15-7-2 in Warriors last 24 home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-23-15 |
Pacific v. San Francisco -125 |
Top |
76-89 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons.
The Dons are coming off a blowout loss at St. Mary's, but they return home to face the cellar dwelling Pacific Tigers. The Tigers are coming off just their second win of the season, and they needed a buzzer beater to force overtime and another as time expired to win 73-72 at home over Santa Clara. I think this sets them up for a let down on the road at San Francisco, where they have lost four straight since 2008.
The Dons have not looked great, but have won five of seven at home. They are shooting 46.7 percent from the field and 69.6 percent from the charity stripe in San Francisco. The Tigers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games, and have lost all four so far this season. You can expect a strong effort from the Dons after the beating they took at St. Mary's, theyare 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Take SF.
GL,
Jesse Schule.
|
12-23-15 |
76ers v. Bucks UNDER 195 |
Top |
100-113 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@MIL to go UNDER the total.
The Sixers are 0-17 on the road so far, and they a double-digit dog at Milwaukee tonight. They have lost 11 straight since beating the Lakers at the beginning of the month, and they scored less than 100 points in nine of those 11 losses. They rank dead last in the league in scoring, averaging just over 90 points per game. The total for tonight's game looks a little high, as the Bucks aren't exactly an offensive juggernaut either. Milwaukee is ranked 28th in the NBA in scoring, averaging just 96 points per game. These teams have gone under in nine of the last 13 meetings in Milwaukee, and the total for tonight's game is higher than it was in any of those previous contests. The Sixers have gone under in eight of their last 11 road games, and the Bucks have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 10 versus Eastern Conference opponents.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-22-15 |
Mercer +10.5 v. Ohio State |
Top |
44-64 |
Loss |
-106 |
16 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Mercer Bears.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off a huge home win over Kentucky, but that sets them up for a let down here tonight at home versus Mercer. The Bears are coming in a double digit dog, and they are the team with the better record. Mercer is 9-2 overall, and it's last game was a win over the Razorbacks in Arkansas. The Buckeyes have lost three home games already to Texas Arlington, Louisiana Tech and Virginia. Mercer has a huge edge at the free throw line, hitting 74.7 percent, nearly 10 points better than OSU. They are also better on the boards, with a deeper bench and they have a size advantage. The Bears have also shot better than 40 percent from three point range over their last five games.
Take Mercer.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-22-15 |
Vanderbilt v. Purdue -5.5 |
Top |
55-68 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Purdue Boilermakers.
The Commodores come into Purdue off a string of poor performances, and I don't like their chances here without starting forward Luke Kornet. The 7 foot junior is out for four to six weeks with a knee injury, and without him Vandy has not looked good. They lost to Baylor and Dayton, before winning their last game against Wofford. The Boiler Makers are 11-1, thanks to their twin towers Isaac Haas and A.J. Hammons. Without Kornet the Commodores have struggled on the boards, and they face a Purdue team that out-rebounding opponents by an average margin over 12 points. Vandy has lost 10 straight to Top 25 teams, while the Boilermakers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine versus teams from the SEC. I expect Purdue to win this game by double-digits.
Take Purdue.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-22-15 |
Grizzlies v. 76ers UNDER 194 |
Top |
104-90 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MEM@PHI to go UNDER the total.
The Grizzlies are in Philly tonight, coming off a 95-87 home win over Indiana. They've been playing strong defense, holding opponents below 100 points in each of their last four games. Philly ranks dead last in the NBA in scoring, averaging just over 90 points per game. They scored just 86 points on 34.9 percent shooting in a loss at Cleveland in their most recent game. Both previous meetings between these two teams in 2015 failed to reach the total, and the number in tonight's game is higher than it was in either of those games. The Grizzlies have gone under in 13 of their last 18 road games, while Philly has gone under in eight of it's last 10 versus Western Conference teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-21-15 |
Suns v. Jazz UNDER 200 |
Top |
89-110 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHO@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Utah Jazz put an end to a four game losing streak with a 97-88 home win over a hot Denver Nuggets team. The Jazz are one of the NBA's best defensive teams, ranking 5th in the NBA allowing 97.3 points per game. They haven't been quite as stingy since the injury to Rudy Gobert, but I like their chances tonight, hosting the struggling Phoenix suns who lost at home last night to Milwaukee 101-95. The Suns have lost 10 of 14 on the road so far, and they've failed to reach the total in seven of their last 10 at Utah. The Jazz have trended under at a rate of 21-7 in Jazz last 28 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The incredibly high total for tonight's game flies in the face of the trends, and I expect the Jazz to play their fifth consecutive under at home tonight against Phoenix.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-21-15 |
Magic v. Knicks -135 |
Top |
107-99 |
Loss |
-135 |
9 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New York #Knicks.
The New York Knicks have won four straight, and they host the Orlando Magic at the Garden tonight. The Magic are coming off a 103-100 home loss to the Atlanta Hawks, and they are in a tough spot playing on back to back nights. The Knicks have owned the Magic in recent seasons, going 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings. They've covered the spread in five of the last six meetings at the Garden.
Carmelo Anthony scored 27 points on 12-of-20 shooting in a win over the Bulls on Saturday, and the Knicks shot 50 percent from the field in that game. New York has been one o the top defensive teams in the NBA, allowing opponents to average fewer than 100 points per game. Orlando is averaging just 99 points per game on the road, ranking in the bottom half of the league. They've scored an average of just 93.6 points in their last four games versus the Knicks.
Take NYK.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-20-15 |
Evansville v. Fresno State -2 |
Top |
85-77 |
Loss |
-106 |
16 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Fresno State Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs are 7-0 at home so far, and they are 8-3 overall. They've played some good teams, and have been very competitive with the best of them. They lost by just five points at Oregon, and they weren't really out-classed in a loss to the Wildcats at Arizona. They will host the Evansville Aces on Sunday, and the Aces are off to a 9-2 start, but are just 1-1 on the road. Their most recent road game was an 89-76 loss at Arkansas. Their leading scorer D.J. Balentine was just 5-of-16 from the field, and 1-of-6 from beyond the arc in that game. They are shooting just 20% from three-point range on the road, and they are really getting killed on the boards averaging just 26.5 rebounds. The Bulldogs are likely to own the glass here at home, and I think it's a bargain getting Fresno State as a short favorite here.
Take FRES.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-20-15 |
Davidson v. Pittsburgh -4.5 |
Top |
69-94 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Panthers. The 8-1 Pittsburgh Panthers are a small favorite against the 7-1 Davidson Wildcats when the two teams meet at Madison Square Garden Sunday. Davidson is a pretty good team that scores a lot of points, but I think the Wildcats are going to run into a brick wall here against an elite team from the toughest conference in the country. Both these teams are averaging over 85 points per game, but the Wildcats aren't even close when it comes to defense. The Panthers are allowing opponents to average just 63 points per game, 15 points fewer than the Wildcats. The Panthers are also shooting for a significantly higher percentage from the field (49.9%), from three-point range (41.3%), and they are shooting just shy of 80 percent from the free throw line. Davidson has failed to cover the spread in six of it's last eight versus ACC teams, and I think it will come up short again in New York. Take PIT. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-19-15 |
Texas v. Stanford +2 |
Top |
75-73 |
Push |
0 |
17 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Stanford Cardinal.
The Texas Longhorns will play their first true road game at Stanford tonight, and the Cardinal have been very strong at home. The Cardinal are coming off a 79-60 home win over DePaul. The Longhorns have lost to Michigan, Texas A&M and Washington. The Longhorns are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games, and they've failed to cover in four of their last five road games. Stanford won 74-71 at Texas last season, and two of the last three meetings between these teams have required overtime. The Longhorns have no business being favorites on the road in Northern California, and my money is on Stanford,
The STAN.
GL.
Jesse Schule
|
12-19-15 |
Tulsa v. Oregon State -113 |
Top |
71-76 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Oregon State Beavers. The Beavers have won five of seven games so far, and their only losses came to Kentucky and Valparaiso. They are a slight favorite at home tonight against Tulsa, coming off a double digit home win over Cal State Fullerton. The Beavers shot 48 percent from the field, and 8-of-20 from three point range in last night's win. Tulsa has impressed with a 7-3 start, but the Golden Hurricane have had a pretty soft schedule. The Golden Hurricane are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games, and this looks like a particularly tough spot against a tough, and underrated opponent. Take ORST. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-19-15 |
Bulls v. Knicks UNDER 195 |
Top |
91-107 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CHI@NYK to go UNDER the total.
The Knicks have won three straight, and they host the Bulls on Saturday. The Knicks have been involved in some high scoring games lately, but with both teams playing their second game in as many nights, I expect a lower scoring contest tonight. Both Chicago and New York are ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in opponent's scoring average, allowing less than 100 points per game. The Bulls have gone under in four of their last five road games, and they might not have a lot left in the tank after playing multiple overtimes last night. The total for tonight's game is far higher than it was in any of the last 10 meetings, and I think the value lies with a play on UNDER.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-19-15 |
Oakland v. Washington -8.5 |
Top |
97-83 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 2 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Washington Huskies.
The Huskies have won four straight, and they are 5-0 at home so far. Washington will host the Oakland Grizzlies on Saturday, and Oakland has been a bit of a disappointment this year. The Grizzlies are just 2-3 on the road, and they appear to be overmatched here at Washington. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. They shot 10-of-25 from the three point line in a 92-62 win over the Montana Grizzlies in their last game. They owned the boards in that game, and with their tremendous size, they normally clean up on the glass. I like the Huskies to win by double digits here versus an inferior opponent.
Take WASH.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-19-15 |
North Carolina v. UCLA +7 |
Top |
89-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the UCLA Bruins. The Bruins will host the #11 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday, looking for another big upset at home. It was just two weeks ago that UCLA beat the #1 ranked Kentucky Wildcats at home. Last weekend they upset the Gonzaga Bulldogs winning 71-66 on the road. The Tar Heels on the other hand have lost both road games so far at UNI and Texas. Making matters worse for UNC, senior forward Kennedy Meeks is out for the Tar Heels. The Bruins are starting to develop a reputation as Giant Killers, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games versus teams with a winning record. Take UCLA. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-19-15 |
Utah v. Duke -6.5 |
Top |
77-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils.
The Utah Utes are an underdog on the road at Duke on Saturday afternoon, and this will be the first meeting since last year's tournament. The Blue Devils won that game by a score of 63-57, but that was at a neutral site. I'm expecting are more one-sided affair here at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Utes have not done well on the road, losing by 17 points at Wichita State in their most recent road game. They also lost a neutral site game by a 24 point margin versus the Miami Hurricanes. Amile Jefferson will not play for Duke, but they didn't miss him in a 99-65 win over Georgia Southern. They shot 53 percent from the field and 41.percent from beyond the arc in that game. Freshman Brandon Ingram stepped up scoring 26 points on 9-of-13 shooting. The Blue Devils have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 versus teams from the PAC-12, and seven of their last eight following a win.
Take DUKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule.
|
12-18-15 |
Grizzlies v. Mavs OVER 196.5 |
Top |
88-97 |
Loss |
-109 |
19 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MEM@DAL to go OVER the total.
The Memphis Grizzlies will be in Dallas taking on the Mavs tonight, and I think the total for this game looks a little low. Perhaps people still think of Memphis as one of the best defensive teams in the NBA? Last year they ranked second in the league in opponent's scoring, allowing only 95.1 points per game. Things have changed since then, and they rank below average so far this year, allowing 100.9 points per contest. The Mavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA last year, and have improved just slightly. The over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings between the two teams, and 4-0-2 in the Grizzlies last six trips to Dallas. Tony Allen is considered by many to be the best defender in the NBA, and he hasn't played since last Friday, sitting out the last three games with a knee injury. The Mavs have gone over in six of their last seven versus teams with a winning record.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-18-15 |
Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 195.5 |
Top |
107-97 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NYK@PHI to go UNDER the total.
The Knicks are coming off back to back wins over Portland and Minnesota, and each of those games were high scoring. I'm expecting a slower pace here on the road at Philly, as the Sixers are ranked dead last in the NBA in scoring, and New York has been pretty good defensively. These teams certainly have a history of playing low scoring games, with five of the last six failing to reach the total, and 10 of the last 11 meetings in Philadelphia going under the number. Kristaps Porzingis had seven blocks in the win over Minnesota, and the rookie they call #PorzinGOD scored 17 points with 10 rebounds and four blocks in a 99-87 home win over Philly earlier this season. I expect tonight's game to look very much like the previous matchup at the Garden.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-16-15 |
Pelicans v. Jazz UNDER 204 |
Top |
104-94 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NO@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Jazz have lost three straight, but two of those three losses came on the road. The other was a 94-90 home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they should have an excellent chance to put an end to this skid tonight. They host the New Orleans Pelicans, a team with a 1-12 road record. The Pelicans blew a 14-point lead in a 98-94 loss to the Bulls on Friday, and the under is 7-3 in Pelicans last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. The Jazz are one of the top defensive teams in the league, holding opponents to an average of 97.4 points per game. We've seen 10 of their last 14 games versus teams below .500 fail to reach the total, and I think tonight's number is way higher than it should be.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-16-15 |
New Mexico State v. New Mexico -9 |
Top |
61-79 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New Mexico Lobos.
The Lobos will host rivals New Mexico State tonight, and they are asked to cover a nine point spread. I like the Lobos to win this one by double digits. These teams met earlier this year, and UNM won that one by a score of 83-74. The Lobos are 5-0 at home, and their last game was an impressive 76-57 win over the Northern Illinois Panthers. While these rivals have played their fair share of close games in the past, not many of those have come at Albuquerque. The Aggies lost here last year by a score of 62-47. They are 2-5-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in New Mexico, and 2-10-2 ATS overall in the last 14 meetings.
Take UNM. GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-16-15 |
76ers v. Hawks UNDER 199 |
Top |
106-127 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@ATL to go UNDER the total. The Atlanta Hawks are struggling, coming into tonight's home game against the Sixers as losers of three straight. They've been ice cold offensively during that span, averaging just 86 points in those games. The good news is that they are facing a Philly team that is 1-25 overall, and 0-15 on the road. The Sixers are averaging an NBA low 90.6 points per game, and they might struggle to reach their average here on the road tonight. The Hawks aren't bad defensively, allowing opponents to average less than 100 points per game. They've gone under in five straight versus Philly, and eight of their last nine games versus teams below .500 have failed to reach the total. The Hawks were the top three-point shooting team in the East last year, but rank 18th overall in the NBA this year.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-16-15 |
Celtics v. Pistons -127 |
Top |
116-119 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 43 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Detroit Pistons.
The Pistons host the Celtics tonight, and Boston is coming off an ugly home loss to Cleveland last night. They shot just 32 percent from the field, losing by a score of 89-77. They appear to be in a tough spot playing on the road on back to back nights at the Palace in Motor City. The Pistons are 9-4 at home, and they've covered the spread in five of their last seven home meetings with the Celtics. Boston has averaged just 87.5 points losing back to back games, and they might continue to struggle here against one of the NBA's best defensive teams. "For whatever reason we were in mud a little bit on offense," coach Brad Stevens said after last night's loss. Expect Detroit to own the boards here against an undersized Celtics team that ranks near the bottom of the league in rebounding.
Take DET.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-16-15 |
Northern Illinois +13 v. Ohio State |
Top |
54-67 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 20 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies.
The Ohio State Buckeyes have a strong basketball tradition, and a brand that bettors are familiar with. Perhaps that's why they are a double-digit favorite tonight against the 7-1 Northern Illinois Huskies. When you look at the numbers, nothing else makes sense. The Buckeyes have a losing record, and they are coming off a 20-point loss to Connecticut. They shot just 35.7 percent in that game, and went 5-of-22 from beyond the arc. The Huskies are still flying under the radar, but they've been a great bet on the road going 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Huskies are coming off their first loss of the season at Missouri, but that game was close (78-71). They should be able to make this game interesting against an overrated OSU team.
Take NIU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-15-15 |
DePaul v. Stanford -7 |
Top |
60-79 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Stanford Cardinal.
The Cardinal will host the DePaul Blue Demons tonight, and this looks like a complete mismatch. Stanford is 4-3 overall, but their losses have come to powerhouse schools in SMU, St. Mary's and Villanova. They are coming off back to back home wins over Arkansas and Dartmouth. Friday's win over Dartmouth was a defensive clinic, holding the Big Green to 50 points in a 64-50 victory. The Blue Demons are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. They are coming off a 66-44 loss to UALR, and were an abysmal 1-of-9 from beyond the arc, and 9-of-16 (56.3 %) from the free throw line. DePaul has been totally out-classed when facing top tier teams, going 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning straight up record.
Take STAN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-15-15 |
Nuggets v. Wolves OVER 204.5 |
Top |
112-100 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DEN@MIN to go OVER the total
The Minnesota Timberwolves will host the Denver Nuggets tonight, and Denver comes in red hot as winners of four of their last five. They beat the Rockets at home last night by a score of 114-108, and there's every reason to expect another high scoring affair in Minnesota. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the league, ranking 22nd and 24th in opponent's scoring average. The T-Pups have lost six of seven, and seven of their last eight have seen over 200 points scored. These two teams have gone over in six of the last eight meetings in Minnesota, and the Timberwolves have gone over in 10 of their last 13 versus a team with a losing record. Danilo Gallinari has been red hot, and he scored 23 points in a 111-108 win over Minnesota on Friday. We should see history repeat itself here in Minnesota tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-14-15 |
Wizards v. Grizzlies OVER 199.5 |
Top |
95-112 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WAS@MEM to go OVER the total.
The Grizzlies lost a heart-breaker in Miami last night, and now they are back home playing their second game in a back to back against Washington. The Wizards are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 26th in the league allowing opponents to average 105.3 points per game. They won 114-111 at Dallas on Saturday, and they've seen at least 200 points scored in each of their last seven overall. The Grizzlies were one of the stingiest teams in the league last year, but they are below average so far this season, allowing 101.2 points per game. Memphis has gone over in five of it's last seven overall, and Washington has gone over at rate of 5-2-1 in it's last eight versus Western Conference teams. This total looks a little low considering.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-13-15 |
Grizzlies v. Heat -175 |
Top |
97-100 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 4 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat are coming into this game against the Memphis Grizzlies eager to end a three-game slide. They've been extremely disappointing on offense in their two most recent games, putting up just 81 and 83 points against Charlotte and Indiana respectively. They've had decent success home at American Airlines Arena though were they've won five of their last seven games and are averaging 99 points per game compared to a 95.4 mark overall. The Grizzlies have been inconsistent lately splitting their first six games of the month and they've failed to cover the spread in four of their last five. They were blown out in a 123-99 defeat against Charlotte home in Memphis Friday, and this could be another rough game as they're 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss at home. Take MIA. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-12-15 |
UCLA +8 v. Gonzaga |
Top |
71-66 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the UCLA Bruins.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs will host UCLA on Saturday, and the Bruins have won three straight, with one of those wins coming against the #1 ranked Kentucky Wildcats. Gonzaga doesn't look like the same team after losing a pair of senior guards in Pangos and Bell. After losing at home to Arizona, they just about lost again in a 68-51 win over Montana on Tuesday. They shot just 40 percent from the field, and hit 4-of-15 from beyond the arc. "We're very lucky to get out of this with a win," coach Mark Few said after the game. Despite their struggles, they are asked to cover a big number here. The Bruins have covered the spread in four of their last five road games, while the Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. Senior center Przemek Karnowski has missed the Bulldogs last three games with a sore back, and he isn't expected to play tonight. "He's a huge, huge part of who we are," said Few. "I think these guys are performing admirably without one of their best, most important players out there on the floor."
Take UCLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-12-15 |
Spurs v. Hawks OVER 191 |
Top |
103-78 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SAS@ATL to go OVER the total. The San Antonio Spurs defeated the Hawks 108-88 home in San Antonio on Nov.28 and I expect a similar total for the scoreline tonight. The Spurs put up impressive offensive numbers in last night's 109-87 win against the Lakers as they shot 53.7% from the field despite resting Tony Parker completely and Tim Duncan logging just 20 minutes. I think it's fair to assume that the Spurs will be lively on the ball tonight as well with a fresh Parker in the starting lineup again. Backup point guard Patty Mills scored 22 points on 9-of-11 shooting in Parker's absence last night, and that's a great testament to the depth of the offensive talent the Spurs have at their disposal. The Hawks have been inconsistent in recent weeks and allowed the Thunder to shoot 48.8% from the field and 52.9% from 3-point range in Thursday's 107-94 defeat. They're usually putting up strong offensive displays at Philips Arena though where they average 102.6 points per game this season, and that should be the case tonight as well. The over is 4-1 in the Spurs last five overall and 5-1 in their last six when visiting a team with a winning home record. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-12-15 |
Cincinnati v. Xavier -5 |
Top |
55-65 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers.
These are two teams that are quite familiar with one another, but in recent seasons the Musketeers have had the better of this rivalry. Last year Xavier upset the Bearcats in Cincinnati by a score of 59-57. The year before they crushed them at home by a score of 64-47. This year's Musketeers team might be the best ever, and they come into tonight's game with a 9-0 record, with signature wins over Michigan, Dayton and USC. None of those games were close, all decided by a double digit margin. They are coming off a 90-55 win over Wright State, and they were 10-of-21 from beyond the arc in the victory. The Musketeers have been a great bet at home, going 37-18 ATS in their last 55 home games.
Take XAV.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-12-15 |
St. Mary's +6 v. California |
Top |
59-63 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the St. Mary's Gaels. The California Bears are one of the better teams in the PAC12, and they are sexy pick for bettors, who are easily impressed by the fact that they score a lot of points. Cal will face a tough test this Saturday though, hosting the undefeated Gaels. So far this season, when they've played good teams they have failed to impress. The Bears lost 72-58 to San Diego State in Las Vegas, shooting just 37.5 percent from the field in that game. They also fell 94-90 to the Richmond Spiders, blowing a late lead. The Gaels have cruised to a 6-0 record, and they have double digit wins over Stanford, U.C. Davis and UCI. While this will be their toughest test to date, history tells us that we should see a close game here. St. Mary's has won both previous meetings, and those games were each decided by single digits. The Gaels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, while Cal has failed to cover in four of it's last five home games.
Take SMC.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-12-15 |
Utah v. Wichita State -135 |
Top |
50-67 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Wichita State Shockers.
The Shockers have had a tough start to the season, with a record of 4-4. One of the reasons for their struggles has been injuries, and they really missed Fred Van Fleet. Their starting PG is back and healthy now though, and he scored 17 points with four rebounds and four assists in a win over UNLV on Thursday. Wichita State will host Utah on Saturday afternoon, and this is a revenge spot for the Shockers, who lost by a single point at Utah last season. The Utes are a great team at home, but they are nowhere near as good on the road. Utah is 1-4 ATS in it's last five non-conference games, and 2-5 ATS in it's last seven away from home. The Utes looked pretty sloppy in their last game, trailing IPFW by seven points in the first half, and allowing the Matadors to score 36 first half points. The Shockers are far better defensively, and they are a dominant team on their home court.
Take WICH.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-11-15 |
Pistons v. 76ers UNDER 193 |
Top |
107-95 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 43 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DET@PHI to go UNDER the total.
The Sixers rank dead last in the NBA in scoring, averaging just over 90 points per game. They scored 91 points in a loss last night to one of the worst teams in the East, and they face the Pistons in their second game of a back to back at home tonight. Detroit is coming off a brutal home loss to Memphis, as the Grizzlies won by one point on a half-court buzzer-93-92 beater by a score of 93-92. The Pistons rank 5th in the NBA allowing opponents to average just 97.6 points per game. The bad news is that they rank near the bottom in scoring, averaging roughly the same. Detroit has failed to reach the total in five of it's last six road games, while the Sixers have gone under in 11 of their last 15 home games. These teams also have a history of playing low scoring games, with 11 of the last 15 meetings in Philadelphia failing to reach the total.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-10-15 |
76ers v. Nets UNDER 196.5 |
Top |
91-100 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PHI@BKN to go UNDER the total.
Philly is coming off an ugly home loss to the Spurs, scoring just 68 point on 34 percent shooting. They rank dead last in the NBA in scoring, averaging just over 90 points per game. While they were completely out-classed in the loss to San Antonio, they had been very competitive in nine straight games before that. Tonight's game in Brooklyn is as good a chance as any for the Sixers to pick up a win, playing the second worst team in the Eastern Conference. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, failing to reach the total in each of the last six head to head meetings. The Sixers have failed to reach the total in five of their last six road games, while the Nets have gone under in six straight versus teams with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-09-15 |
Spurs v. Raptors OVER 187.5 |
Top |
94-97 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@TOR to go OVER the total.
The Raptors will host the Spurs in Toronto tonight, and these are two of the NBA's top defensive teams. Both teams also do their fair share of scoring though, and I think the total here looks a little too low. Both teams could be without their best defensive players, as DeMarre Carroll will not play for the Raptors, and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Kwahi Leonard is questionable for the Spurs. The Raptors are expected to give more minutes to youngster Terrence Ross, and to say that he's not known for his defense might be understating it. The Raptors have seen the total go over in four of their last five home games, and four of their last five home meetings versus San Antonio.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-08-15 |
Maryland -130 v. Connecticut |
Top |
76-66 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Maryland Terrapins.
The Terps stock has dropped after a loss to North Carolina at Chapel Hill, but I was actually impressed with Maryland in that game. Particularly the play of PG Melo Trimble, who scored 23 points on 7-of-10 shooting. The Tar Heels won that game by a score of 89-81, but it was actually quite close until the final minute. They face the Connecticut Huskies at Madison Square Garden tonight, and they beat Georgetown here on November 17. They Huskies didn't look good in losses to Gonzaga and Syracuse, and it won't get any easier against the #6 ranked Terrapins. Maryland has the better shooters, and they were on fire in their last game hitting better than 67 percent.
Take MD.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-08-15 |
Warriors v. Pacers +5.5 |
Top |
131-123 |
Loss |
-105 |
21 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Indiana Pacers.
The Golden State Warriors just keep on winning, and there seems to be no end in sight. The bookmakers have noticed, and the public continues to pound the Dubs as a big favorite no matter the situation. I think they are asked to cover a few too many points here on the road at Indiana though. The Pacers have won six straight at home, and Paul George is the top scorer in the Eastern Conference. He's coming off a massive game, scoring 48 points on 15-of-27 shooting in a loss at Utah. Golden State has had a couple of close calls lately, with wins at Utah and Toronto each coming by just three points. History tells us that they could struggle here in Indianapolis, where they are 3-13 ATS in the last 16. The Pacers are well rested, having not played since Saturday, and they are an incredible 11-0 ATS in their last 11 when playing on two days rest.
Take IND.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-07-15 |
CS-Northridge v. San Francisco -6.5 |
Top |
61-65 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco Dons.
The Dons came out flat for their last home game, trailing Eastern Washington by 11 at halftime. They out-scored the Eagles 48-41 in the second half, but still came up short losing 81-77. They followed that up with another ugly loss on the road to Montana, but a home game against the 2-6 CS Northridge Matadors appears to present an opportunity to get back on track. The Matadors have been blown out in back to back losses to Pepperdine and UCLA, and they turned the ball over 37 times in those two games. Bettors haven't made any money backing this team, as the Matadors are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games. I expect the Dons to win this one by double digits.
Take SF.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-07-15 |
Pistons v. Hornets UNDER 195.5 |
Top |
84-104 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on DET@CHA to go UNDER the total.
The Pistons come into Charlotte as winners of four straight, but all four of those wins came at home. Last night they beat the Lakers by a score of 111-91, but I expect them to have a tougher time on the road playing their second game in as many nights. Detroit is just 4-7 on the road this season, and they've lost their last three. They scored an average of just 86 points in those three losses.
Both these teams rank near the top of the league in opponent's scoring average, each holding the opposition to fewer than 100 points per game. Detroit has gone under in four of it's last five on the road, and four of it's last five when playing on back to back nights. The Hornets have held opponents below 100 points in four of their last five, with the only exception being a loss to the 20-0 Warriors.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-05-15 |
Northern Iowa +3.5 v. Richmond |
Top |
67-82 |
Loss |
-106 |
17 h 4 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Northern Iowa Panthers.
The Richmond Spiders are just 4-3, and they are coming off an ugly 20-point loss at Florida. The Spiders shot just 21-of-62 (33.9%) from the field in that game. Still they come into tonight's home game asked to cover points against a Northern Iowa team that is on a five game winning streak. One of those five wins was an upset of the #1 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels. The Panthers have played the tougher schedule, yet they come in shooting the ball for a far higher percentage from the field, from beyond the arc, and almost 10 percent better at the charity stripe. They have covered the spread in 13 of their last 16 road games, and last year they won nine of their 13 road games outright, and those losses came at VCU, Wichita State and Evansville (by three points). I don't believe the Spiders have any business being asked to cover a handful of points here versus this team.
Take UNI.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-05-15 |
Warriors v. Raptors +7.5 |
Top |
112-109 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Toronto Raptors. The Golden State Warriors just keep on winning, and there seems to be no end in sight. The bookmakers have noticed, and the public continues to pound the Dubs as a big favorite no matter the situation. I think they are asked to cover a few too many points here on the road at Toronto though. The Raptors played them close in a 115-110 loss at Oracle Arena earlier this season, and Toronto has covered the spread in 10 of it's last 13 versus teams from the Western Conference. The Warriors will not have Harrison Barnes for this game, as he remains sidelined by an ankle injury. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan scored 28 points a piece in the last meeting between these two teams, and they'll need to be at their best again if the Raptors are going to end the Warriors unbeaten streak. I like the Raptors to at least keep it close, as they have covered the spread in six straight home games versus an opponent with a winning record.
Take TOR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-04-15 |
Nets v. Knicks -155 |
Top |
91-108 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the New York Knicks. The Knickerbockers are coming off a home win over Philly, and Kristaps Porgzingis filled the stats sheet. The rookie scored 17 points with 10 rebounds and four blocks in 30 minutes. The Kicks host Brooklyn tonight, and this looks like another opportunity to pick up a home win over an inferior opponent. The Nets are coming off a pair of home wins, but they have dropped 10 of 11 on the road this season. They rank near last in the league in scoring, averaging just 95.7 points per game. The Knicks are 5-4 overall in their last nine, and a win tonight would put them back to .500 for the season. Brooklyn won all four meetings in this series last year, giving the Knicks even more reason to get up for this game.
Take NYK.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-03-15 |
Celtics v. Kings UNDER 215 |
Top |
114-97 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BOS@SAC to go UNDER the total.
The Celtics and the Kings are two teams not known to play particularly good defense, but I still think they will come up short of an inflated total tonight. This game will be played in Mexico City, in an arena that isn't going to be familiar to either team. Boston has actually been playing pretty well defensively of late, winning three of their last four, and holding opponents under 100 points in all three of those wins. The Kings have seen the total go under in seven straight games when playing on two days rest, and the Celtics have gone under in four in a row after two days off. The Kings have failed to reach the total in 10 of their last 13 when playing a team with a winning record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-03-15 |
Pacers -128 v. Blazers |
Top |
111-123 |
Loss |
-128 |
15 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Indiana Pacers.
Indiana comes into Portland tonight riding a six game winning streak, and they trail the Cavs by just a half a game in the Eastern Conference standings. Paul George is averaging over 35 points per game on better than 50 percent shooting in his last four, and he's fourth in the league in scoring averaging 27.4 points per game. Portland has really struggled without LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews, and they have lost three of their last four, two of those at home. Damian Lillard has tried to put the team on his back, taking more shots than anyone in the league aside from James Harden. The result has been a career worst shooting percentage (41.9), and an increase in turnovers. Portland has lost 10 of their last 13 overall, and it looks like a tough ask to expect them to compete with a hot Pacers team.
Take IND.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-03-15 |
Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 185 |
Top |
103-83 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on SA@MEM to go OVER the total.
The Spurs come into Memphis as winners of 11 of their last 13, but they've lost two of their last three road games. They might have a tough time playing a hot Memphis team on the back end of a back to back. The Grizzlies have won four of their last five, and they've scored an average of over 103 points per game during that span. Memphis still has a reputation for being a strong defensive team, but the numbers don't support that. They rank 13th overall in the league allowing just under 100 points per game. These teams have a history of playing high scoring games, with the total going over the number in nine of the last 13 meetings. The number for tonight's game is lower than it was in any of those previous contests.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-02-15 |
BYU +9 v. Utah |
Top |
75-83 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the BYU Cougars.
The Utah Utes are 5-1, but I haven't been impressed with their body of work so far. I bet against them when they played San Diego State at home on November 16. They failed to cover, winning by just five points. That game saw several lead changes, and it could have gone either way. They have since been blown out in a neutral site game against Miami, and won a close game against Temple. BYU has won four of five, with their one loss coming by a single point on the road at Long Beach State. That loss isn't as bad as it sounds, as Long Beach State is a pretty competitive team. In fact last night they lost by just four points to the Aztecs, who were neck and neck with the Utes in that mid November game at Utah. The Utes have won two of the last three meetings between the two teams, but two of those games were close, decided by four points or fewer.
Take BYU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-02-15 |
Florida State v. Iowa -5.5 |
Top |
75-78 |
Loss |
-106 |
20 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Iowa Hawkeyes.
The Hawkeyes are 2-0 at home, and they are coming off a very impressive win over Wichita State. Iowa shot 53.8 percent from the field, and 8-of-18 from three point range, winning 84-61. The Seminoles are playing their first road game of the year, and they have won four of five versus unranked teams from smaller conferences. Florida State hasn't fared as well against Power 5 teams, especially the BIG10. They have failed to cover in nine of their last 10 versus BIG10 teams. Iowa holds an edge in three-point shooting as well as free throw percentage, which is even more significant considering their strength of schedule. They also have a massive size advantage, and should have little trouble dominating the boards.
Take IOWA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-02-15 |
Wyoming v. Denver -5 |
Top |
68-52 |
Loss |
-105 |
11 h 30 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Denver Pioneers.
The Pioneers have won five straight, and all five of those wins have come by double digits. They host a 4-2 Wyoming team tonight that hasn't impressed much in the early going. The Cowboys lost their only road game this season by a 15 point margin at Indiana State, and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games dating back to last year. The Pioneers have won five straight home meetings versus Wyoming, going 3-1-1 ATS in those games. They are only asked to cover a handful of points in tonight's contest, and this year's Denver team might just be far better than it was in past seasons.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-02-15 |
Tulsa v. Oklahoma State -155 |
Top |
66-56 |
Loss |
-155 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
The Cowboys host the Tulsa Golden Hurricane tonight, and Tulsa is coming off back to back losses to South Carolina and Arkansas Little Rock. They were just 20-of-51 (39%) from the field in that game, and that's not likely going to be good enough here in Stillwater. Recent meetings between these teams have been close, but Oklahoma State has won four of the last five. Oklahoma State has a higher scoring average, shooting percentage, three-point shooting percentage, rebound per game average etc. The most significant stat though is that they are hitting almost 10% higher with free throws. The Golden Hurricane are 1-5 ATS in their last six versus Big 12 teams, and the Cowboys are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games.
Take OKST.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-02-15 |
Wisconsin v. Syracuse -5 |
Top |
66-58 |
Loss |
-104 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange.
The Wisconsin Badgers were the runner up in last year's NCAA Tournament Final, but they have really struggled after losing Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker. They really struggled in their last game at Oklahoma, losing the Sooners by a score of 65-48. They shot an abysmal 23.5 percent from the field in that game, and hit just 7-of-33 three point shots. It doesn't get any easier tonight, playing the Syracuse Orange at the Carrier Dome. The Orange have won 63 of their last 64 non conference home games, and they have looked quite good so far, coming off consecutive wins over ranked teams. They beat the Connecticut Huskies 79-76 on Thanksgiving Day, and then defeated Texas A&M 74-67 the next day. Michael Gbinije comes into tonight's game averaging just under 20 points per game, and he's shooting better than 50 percent from beyond the arc so far this season.
Take SYR.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-02-15 |
Louisville v. Michigan State -5.5 |
Top |
67-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on the Michigan State Spartans.
The #3 ranked Spartans host the 5-0 Louisville Cardinals, and I like MSU at home here. The Spartans have proved that they can play with the nation's elite teams, winning the Wooden Legacy with a 77-64 victory over Providence. They also beat Kansas by a score of 79-73 at the United Center in early November. We really haven't seen what Louisville can do, because they have yet to play a top level opponent. It was Michigan State that knocked Louisville out of last year's tournament, and since then the Cardinals have lost Montrezl Harrell, Terry Rozier and Wayne Blackshear. The Spartans come in with a significant edge in three-point percentage, as well as free throw percentage. Those numbers are even more significant when you consider that they've had the tougher schedule. The Cardinals have failed to cover in four of their last five versus teams from the BIG10, while the Spartans have covered in six of their last seven home games.
Take MSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-30-15 |
Warriors v. Jazz +8.5 |
Top |
106-103 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 41 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Utah Jazz.
The Golden State Warriors just keep on winning, and there seems to be no end in sight. The bookmakers have noticed, and the public continues to pound the Dubs as a big favorite no matter the situation. I think they are asked to cover a few too many points here on the road at Utah though. The Jazz are the NBA's best defensive team, holding opponents to just over 93 points per game.
Utah is coming off back to back double digit wins over the Clippers and Pelicans, and they have won three of their last four at home. Golden State is playing it's first game of a grueling seven game road trip, and they will be without their third leading scorer Harrison Barnes for at least three games. Barnes injured his ankle in the win over Phoenix.
The last time the Warriors played at Utah they lost by a score of 110-100 (last January). In fact the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the two teams, and Utah has covered the spread in five of it's last six when playing on one day's rest.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-30-15 |
Spurs -155 v. Bulls |
Top |
89-92 |
Loss |
-155 |
15 h 54 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the San Antonio Spurs.
The Warriors are the team that everyone is talking about, but Los Spurs have quietly won 11 of their last 12, and own the league's second best record. They are on the road at Chicago tonight, and I like the visitors as a slight favorite. The Bulls have lost two of their last three, and I haven't been impressed with Chicago so far this season.
The Spurs are playing stifling defense, limiting opponents to just 89.7 points per game. That's not good news for the Bulls, who have struggled offensively, shooting 36.7 percent from the field over their last three games. Derrick Rose has been shooting poorly all year, and was just 11-for-36 in his last two games.
"Oh, my God, I felt like I played like (crap) tonight," he said. "I don't know what the case might be. Thanksgiving, I don't know. It's a hard one losing like that in here, but the energy level, my energy, wasn't up. It is a tough game when you come back from the West Coast, but we can't use that as an excuse."
Take SA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-30-15 |
Thunder -135 v. Hawks |
Top |
100-106 |
Loss |
-135 |
15 h 53 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Atlanta Hawks and the Oklahoma City Thunder appear to be two teams heading in different directions. Since KD's return, the Thunder have won three straight, all by double digits. The Hawks on the other hand have just three wins in their last nine games, and are coming off a 108-88 loss at San Antonio. Playing another Western Conference powerhouse isn't going to be easy, even at home. The Thunder have won four of the last five meetings with the Hawks, and two of those wins came at Atlanta. Going back further reveals that the Thunder are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Atlanta. The Hawks have failed to cover in five of their last seven games versus opponents from the Western Conference, and I don't like their chances of slowing down a hot Thunder team tonight.
Take OKC.
GL,
Jesse Schul
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11-29-15 |
Dayton v. Xavier -145 |
Top |
61-90 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers.
Both Xavier and Dayton come into Sunday's Advocare Invitational Final unbeaten, but the Musketeers have been far more impressive. Xavier has wins over Michigan and USC, and their last five wins have all come by double digits. The Flyers have yet to face a ranked team, and their last win came in a close game, defeating Monmouth by a score of 73-70.
Dayton shot just 4-of-18 from three point range in that game, and a pedestrian 68.2 percent from the free throw line. With the NCAA putting a heavy emphasis on fouls early in the season, so many games are being decided at the free throw line. That bodes well for the Musketeers, who's 76.8 percent average this season is significantly better than Dayton's.
Xavier blew out the Trojans by a score of 54-27 in the first half of their last game, and then took the pedal off the gas in the second half of an 87-77 win. "Had our best half of the year," coach Chris Mack said. "Our guys were ready to play. We're just excited to play in the championship game."
The Musketeers have won three of their last four versus Dayton, and they appear to be the better team here this year given their more impressive overall body of work.
Take XAVIER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-29-15 |
Wichita State v. Iowa -4.5 |
Top |
61-84 |
Win
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100 |
7 h 59 m |
Show
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This is an 8* play on the Iowa Hawkeyes. I am a big fan of the Wichita State Shockers, but they are in a tough spot here on Sunday facing the Iowa Hawkeyes in Orlando. The Shockers are missing starting guard Fred Van Fleet, as well as his backup Landry Shamet. They suffered another big loss in their last game, with starting forward Anton Grady suffering a serious spinal injury. Grady was knocked unconscious, and taken off the court on a stretcher. With a decimated lineup, the Shockers would lose by a score of 64-60 to a pretty poor Crimson Tide team.
The Hawkeyes have also lost their last two games, but those defeats came to quality opponents in Dayton and #17 ranked Notre Dame. Both of those games were close, and Iowa coach Fred McCaffery put it in perspective: "When you're really good, you're close to struggling," "When you're struggling, you're close to being really good. We played two really good teams right to the wire."
The Shockers are going to need a big game from Rob Baker if they hope to have any chance of hanging with Iowa, and Baker scored just two points and was 0-for-7 from the field the last time he played Iowa. Wichita State has failed to cover in six of it's last seven non conference games, and I don't like it's chances of overcoming injuries here on Sunday.
Take IOWA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-27-15 |
California v. San Diego State +4 |
Top |
58-72 |
Win
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100 |
24 h 14 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the San Diego State Aztecs.
The Aztecs will be the underdog against #14 ranked California when the two teams meet in Las Vegas tonight. Cal has cruised to four easy wins so far, but they have yet to prove themselves against quality opposition. The same can not be said for the Aztecs, who played a close game on the road at #16 ranked Utah two weeks ago. That was a game that saw several lead changes, and the Utes barely escaped with an 81-76 win. I got the win with San Diego State as the underdog in that game, and here is what I said prior to tip off:
"San Diego State won it's opener by double digits, but this early in the season it's difficult to read into results with such a small sample size. One thing that immediately stands out about this game was the play of freshman PG Jeremy Helmsley who scored 20 points in his Aztecs debut. "It's a feeling I can't really describe," said Hemsley, who's from Rancho Cucamonga. "As soon as I woke up today I knew it was going to be a good day. I'm excited for this. But at the end of the day it's just the first game. We just have to continue to do what we do." The point guard position was a weakness for San Diego State last year, and if Helmsley is as good as he's expected to be, they could be a better team this season."
Helmsley scored 16 points with six assists in 28 minutes in a 79-54 win over ECU on Monday, and that might tell us a little about how the Aztecs measure up against Cal. The Bears played the Pirates a few days earlier, and struggled in a game that was close right up until the final buzzer. "We just didn't move the ball well. We got stagnant," said Tyrone Wallace.
Wallace and the Bears are facing one of the nation's top defensive teams here tonight, and they could have a tough time. The last time these teams faced each other the Aztecs won 64-63. San Diego State has covered in 10 of it's last 14 versus opponents from the PAC12.
Take SDST.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-23-15 |
LSU -5 v. Marquette |
Top |
80-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
28 h 47 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the LSU Tigers. The #23 ranked Tigers are undefeated at 3-0, and they are facing a Marquette team that has lost two of three to start the season. The Tigers are just a small favorite here, and I think the bookmakers are way off. Perhaps Marquette is getting the benefit of the doubt because their name is synonymous with a with a winning program, but that was in the past, not necessarily the present. This is a school that lost 13 of it's final 16 games last year, and has already struggled at the beginning of this season. They are coming off an 89-61 loss to unranked Iowa, shooting just 38.6 percent from the field and turning the ball over 19 times in that defeat. The Tigers on the other hand shot better than 50 percent from the field in a 78-66 home win over South Alabama in their last game. LSU is 6-2-1 in it's last nine non-conference games, while the Golden Eagles have failed to cover in 14 of their last 17 overall. I expect the Tigers to win by double digits. Take LSU. GL, Jesse Schule
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11-22-15 |
Valparaiso v. Oregon -4.5 |
Top |
67-73 |
Win
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100 |
18 h 58 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Oregon Ducks.
The #25 ranked Oregon Ducks are off to a good start, winning their first three games which includes a 74-67 win over #16 ranked Baylor. They host the Valparaiso Crusaders on Sunday, and the Ducks are asked to cover just a handful of points. I think Valparaiso is in way over it's head here, even though they are 5-0 to start the season. The Crusaders haven't played anybody, which is my biggest issue with this team. They play in the Horizon, and last year they racked up a ton of wins against lesser teams. In fact they only lost five games all year, but never faced a single ranked opponent until bowing out of the tournament in their first game versus Maryland. During the regular season, their non-conference schedule only saw them face two teams from any of the larger conferences, and neither of those teams were anywhere near as good as Oregon. They lost at Missouri and at home to New Mexico, and both games were blowouts decided by double digits.
Take ORE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-22-15 |
Harvard v. Boston College -4 |
Top |
56-69 |
Win
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100 |
6 h 29 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Boston College Eagles.
The Harvard Crimson have owned the Ivy League in recent years, but their reign of dominance might be coming to an end. Harvard has lost two of it's first three games, one of those coming at home to the Massachusetts Minutemen. I bet on UMASS in that game, and here is what I said prior to tip off:
"The Harvard Crimson are coming off a 12-point loss to Providence, and they are a big favorite at home against an experienced UMASS team. I think Harvard is grossly overrated, based on past success. They lost their starting PG Siyani Chambers to a season ending knee injury before the season started, and that's a huge blow for this team. Siyani averaged 34 minutes playing the last three seasons for the Crimson. They started a pair of freshman in the back court in the loss to Providence."
The Eagles lost a lot of games last year, but they play with the big boys in the ACC. This is a whole different class that what Harvard is used to. The two teams met last season, and Boston College prevailed 64-57. The Eagles are coming off an 82-57 win over Central Connecticut, and they shot 50 percent from the field and 46 percent from three-point range in the win. There is every reason to expect Boston College to take care of business at home here.
Take BC.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-21-15 |
Grizzlies +7.5 v. Spurs |
Top |
82-92 |
Loss |
-105 |
21 h 42 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Memphis Grizzlies.
It was a slow start to the season for the Grizzlies, but they've been hot lately, winning four straight heading into tonight's game in San Antonio. The Spurs are coming off a loss at New Orleans last night, and they might have lost more than just that game. LaMarcus Aldridge suffered a sprained left ankle in the loss, and his availability is in question for tonight's game. Playing on back to back night's might not be an ideal situation for an aging Spurs team that is a little banged up, and they are asked to cover a pretty sizable number here. Playing on back to back nights hasn't been a problem for the Grizz, who have covered four straight playing on no rest. Gregg Popovich didn't think much of his team's effort last night: "We were awful," Popovich said. "We didn't stay in front of people very well. If you allow that much penetration, it throws everybody off kilter when everybody is helping and guys are open for 3s." I like the Grizz to keep this one close at the very least.
Take MEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-21-15 |
Bucks v. Pacers -4.5 |
Top |
86-123 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 16 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers have won seven of their last nine overall, and Paul George appears to be back to playing the way he did before the gruesome broken leg he suffered while playing for team USA. George has scored at least 26 points in eight straight games. Indiana is also playing fantastic defense, ranking 4th in the NBA in opponent's scoring average. The Bucks are coming off back to back losses, surrendering 115 points in both of those games. I like the Pacers to stay hot at home, and this looks like a low number given their recent play. Take IND. GL, Jesse Schule
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