10-21-17 |
USC v. Notre Dame UNDER 60 |
Top |
14-49 |
Loss |
-115 |
126 h 41 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on USC@ND to go under the total.
The USC Trojans face a daunting task on the road at Notre Dame this week. The winner of this game will emerge as a playoff contender, while the loser will be eliminated from contention. The Irish haven't allowed more than 20 points in any of their games this season, and that includes a 20-19 home loss to #3 ranked Georgia. Sam Darnold was the favorite to win the Heisman before the season started, but he's failed to live up to expectations. He's thrown 15 TD passes this season, but 13 of those came at home. On the road he's struggled, throwing for 387 yards with a pair of TDs and two INTs on 41-of-67 passing. Both of those games fell well short of the total, and the Trojans have gone under in four of their last five overall. The one game that did go over saw fewer than 60 total points (28-27 win over Utah last week). The Irish might find success pounding the rock against a soft USC defensive line, the Trojans have struggled to defend the run. The Irish have gone under in four straight in the month of October, and the under is 17-5-1 in their last 23 when coming off a bye week.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-21-17 |
Iowa v. Northwestern UNDER 48.5 |
|
10-17 |
Win
|
100 |
119 h 36 m |
Show
|
|
10-21-17 |
Louisville v. Florida State UNDER 59 |
|
31-28 |
Push |
0 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on LOU@FSU to go UNDER the total.
The Florida State Seminoles are just 2-3 on the season, but those losses came to Alabama, Miami-Fl and N.C. State. All three of those games were close, and all three of those teams are currently ranked in the Top 25. The loss of their starting quarterback has certainly hurt the Seminoles, but they still have an elite defense and plenty of talent up and down the roster. Louisville hasn't been able to stop anybody on defense, and while they've scored their fair share of point, they were held to seven points in the first half at home versus Clemson, and the scored just 10 first half points in a loss at N.C. State. Both the Tigers and the Wolfpack were able to run up the score late in those games, but FSU is perhaps more likely to pound away with the run. Florida State has failed to reach the total in five straight overall, and the total for this game is almost 10 points higher than any of those previous games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-19-17 |
Memphis v. Houston UNDER 59 |
|
42-38 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 46 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on MEM@HOU to go UNDER the total.
The Memphis Tigers have scored plenty of points this season, and they are coming off a 30-27 upset win over #25 ranked Navy last week. This could set them up for a bit of a let down on the road at Houston. The Cougars aren't the playoff contender that they were this time last year, mostly because of their struggles offensively. They remain solid on defense though, allowing just 21 points per game. They have failed to reach the total in seven straight, and nine of their last 10 overall. That includes home games against offensive juggernauts Texas Tech and SMU. While these two teams have scored a ton of points in recent head to head meetings, the under is 4-0 in the last four at Houston. The Cougars have failed to reach the total in six straight home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-14-17 |
Purdue v. Wisconsin UNDER 51.5 |
|
9-17 |
Win
|
100 |
108 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on PUR@WISC to go UNDER the total.
Wisconsin hasn't been tested, and the Badgers are a big favorite at home versus Purdue this weekend. The Boilermakers will face one of the nation's top defenses, as Wisconsin is allowing opponents to average less than 15 points per game. Purdue has averaged less than 10 points in it's last four games at Wisconsin dating back to 2009. The weather forecast calls for cold temperatures and rain in Madison Saturday afternoon. Purdue is quietly having a solid season so far, coming in with a 3-2 record and a defense that has allowed just over 20 points per game. The Badgers have failed to reach the total in seven of their last 10 games in the month of October, and a lot of that might have to do with the fall weather in Madison. I expect both teams to keep it conservative here, and we should see another low scoring game.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-14-17 |
Texas Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 80 |
|
35-46 |
Loss |
-110 |
83 h 44 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on TTU@WVU to go UNDER the total. The West Virginia Mountaineers aren't getting a lot of respect here at home versus Texas Tech. After all this is a team that they trounced by a score of 48-17 last year, and that game was at Lubbock. With the Red Raiders coming to Morgantown, I see no reason why the result will be any different. Sure Texas Tech has improved defensively, but they still lost 41-34 at home to Oklahoma State two weeks ago. Their offense doesn't appear to be quite as prolific as it was with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Nic Shimonek threw for 330 yards with 1 TD and an INT on 29-of-46 passing in the loss to the Cowboys. That was a home game, and now he's playing on the road against a far better defense in West Virginia. The Red Raiders lost 31-26 in their last game at Morgantown (back in 2015). Texas Tech might look like a sexy pick as a dog, but keep in mind that the Red Raiders have lost 16 straight versus Top 25 teams. The under is 12-2 in West Virginia's last 14 games in October.
Take Under.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-14-17 |
NC State v. Pittsburgh UNDER 54 |
|
35-17 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on NCST@PIT to go UNDER the total. Pittsburgh's Homecoming game against the Wolfpack looks tough. The Panthers lost starting quarterback Max Browne for the season, and backup Ben Dincucci hasn't looked great at all. The sophomore has completed just 55 percent of his passes for 422 yards with two TDs and two INTs. He's going up against one of the top defensive lines in the country, and adding insult to injury, their leading rusher is also suspended indefinitely. This looks like it could be a defensive battle, as the Wolfpack have gone under in eight straight against ACC teams, and Pittsburgh has failed to reach the total in six of it's last seven overall. The Panthers have lost to Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Penn State, but none of those games saw enough combined points to reach the total listed for this week's game against the Wolfpack. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-11-17 |
South Alabama v. Troy UNDER 50 |
|
19-8 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on USA@TROY to go UNDER the total. The Troy Trojans are coming off a shocking 24-21 upset win over LSU. They will have to try to avoid a let down here at home against a tough conference rival Wednesday. These teams have played some close games over the years, and four of their last five head to head meetings have failed to reach a combined 50 points. Both teams favor the ground game over an air attack, and we should see a gritty, low scoring battle in Alabama. Troy has a great defense, ranking 24th nationally allowing just 18.6 points per game. The under is 15-5-1 in the Trojans last 21 games overall. Even more telling is the fact that they have only gone over in one of their last 12 versus conference rivals. The Jaguars are trending in the same direction, coming off four straight games that failed to reach the total. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-07-17 |
Arizona v. Colorado UNDER 59 |
|
45-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
21 h 35 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on ARI@COL to go UNDER the total 1/H.
The Colorado Buffaloes went to the PAC12 Championship Game last seasons, but they are coming off back to back losses to UCLA and Washington. Unlike last year, they don't seem to have the offensive firepower to keep up with the top tier teams in the PAC12. They have averaged fewer than 20 points while losing two of three games in conference play. The same issue has plagued Arizona, as the Wildcats are coming off a 30-24 home loss to Utah. Their other loss came by a score of 19-16 at home versus Houston. Neither of these teams have been lighting it up with their passing game, and it's expected that this game will be a battle of ground and pound. With both teams focused on running the ball, the time will likely come off the clock before they can tally too many points. Colorado has gone under in seven of it's last eight overall, and 13 of it's last 16 in conference play.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-05-17 |
Louisville v. NC State UNDER 67 |
|
25-39 |
Win
|
100 |
38 h 52 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on LOU@NCSTATE to go UNDER the total. The Wolfpack were crushed in a 54-14 loss at Louisville last year, and they will have a chance to avenge that loss here at home on Thursday night. Louisville averaged over 60 points per game in their first four games of last season, but their offense hasn't been nearly as explosive so far this year. They have failed to score 30 points in their last three games at Raleigh. Two of those three games went under the total, and not one of those games saw more than a combined 55 points. The total for tonight's game has been bet up several points since opening at 63, and I think that's a pretty high number when you consider that NC. State is vastly improved on defense. The Wolfpack have gone under in seven straight versus conference rivals, and the under is 16-1-1 in their last 18 games on a Thursday. Last week NC State ran the ball for 256 yards and three TDs, and they should find plenty of room to run here in this game. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-30-17 |
Clemson v. Virginia Tech UNDER 52 |
Top |
31-17 |
Win
|
100 |
117 h 47 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLEM@VT to go UNDER the total. The Clemson Tigers are a heavy favorite on the road at Virginia Tech this week, and I expect this to be a low scoring battle between two solid defensive teams. Clemson's defense has been impressive, ranking 3rd nationally, allowing opponents to average just over nine points per game. Virginia Tech ranks 6th nationally, allowing just over 10 points per game. The Hokies have outscored opponents 65-0 in two home games so far. Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant hasn't played poorly, but his stats aren't all that impressive. He's thrown for 873 yards and has completed 68 percent of his passes, but has just two TDs and three picks in four games. Freshman Josh Jackson has put up far more impressive numbers for the Hokies, but hasn't yet faced an opponent like Clemson. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, with six of the last eight meetings going under the total. The Hokies have only scored an average of 16.25 point in their last four games against Clemson, and I doubt they manage much better than that here this week. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-30-17 |
Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech UNDER 84.5 |
|
41-34 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
09-30-17 |
Arizona State v. Stanford OVER 63 |
|
24-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
84 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
09-30-17 |
Syracuse v. NC State UNDER 65.5 |
|
25-33 |
Win
|
100 |
72 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on SYR@NCST to go UNDER the total. The Wolfpack might be in a let down spot here coming off a huge road win at Florida State. The bookmakers are expecting a shootout, setting the total in the mid sixties. While the Orange run a pass happy offense that often results in high scoring games, I don't think it's going to be very effective against this stout Wolfpack defensive line. NC State has gone under in six straight versus ACC teams, while the Orange have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven in conference play. Four of the last five head to head meetings have gone under, and the total for this game is far higher than it was in any of those five previous matchups. Syracuse scored just three first half points on the road at LSU last week. I think this number is simply way too high. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-23-17 |
Notre Dame v. Michigan State UNDER 54 |
Top |
38-18 |
Loss |
-110 |
120 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ND@MSU to go UNDER the total. The Irish will be looking for revenge when they travel to East Lansing this Saturday. The Spartans won at South Bend last year by a score of 36-28. That was an uncharacteristically high scoring tilt between these two teams, going way over the listed total of 50. Four of the previous six games between these teams have gone under, and the total for this year's game is higher than it has been in any of the eight meetings over the last 10 years. Last season's Notre Dame squad was brutal defensively, but this year they've looked much better, allowing just over 18 points per game so far. They came up just short in a 20-19 home loss to Georgia, and I expect this game to yield a similar low score. Neither team does anything flashy on offense, and both teams are capable of grinding out wins with their defense. Sparty has failed to reach the total in six of it's last seven non-conference games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-23-17 |
Michigan v. Purdue UNDER 52 |
|
28-10 |
Win
|
100 |
103 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on MICH@PUR to go UNDER the total. The Wolverines have been impressive on defense during their 3-0 start, but poor quarterback play and a below average offense has prevented them from blowing out inferior opponents. They have averaged just 33 points per game, despite playing two of three games at home against unranked opponents (Cincinnati and Air Force). Playing Purdue on the road could prove to be a challenge for Michigan, and some experts even have them on upset alert. Purdue is off to a great start, and their defense has been impressive. The Boilermakers pushed Louisville to the brink in a 35-28 Week 1 loss, and then went on to win back to back games by 20+ points. These teams have played three times since 2010, and two of those three games failed to reach the total. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-23-17 |
TCU v. Oklahoma State UNDER 71.5 |
|
44-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
61 h 42 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on TCU@OKST UNDER. There has been a lot of line movement in this game between BIG12 rivals TCU and Oklahoma State. The public is betting heavy on the Cowboys and the over, and I think this presents value with a contrarian play. TCU looks like a team that has improved a lot since losing by a score of 31-6 at home to the Cowboys last year. These teams have met every year since 2012, and four of those five games failed to reach the total. Not one of the last 10 meetings between these two teams has seen a combined 70 points. Mason Rudolph has been putting up video game numbers so far, but the last time he faced TCU he threw for just 207 yards and a TD on 17-of-34 passing. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-23-17 |
NC State v. Florida State UNDER 51 |
|
27-21 |
Win
|
100 |
99 h 53 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on NCST@FSU to go UNDER the total.
The Wolfpack out-gained South Carolina 504-246 total yards in Week 1, but found a way to lose that game. They have been solid defending the run, allowing just 2.8 yards per carry and 1 TD in three games. Florida State will want to lean on it's running game here, as they will be starting a true freshman at quarterback. James Blackman will take over for the injured DeAndre Fancois. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, failing to reach the total in five of the last seven meetings. The Seminoles beat the Wolfpack last year by a score of 24-20 at Raleigh, and they won by a score of 34-17 at home in 2015. The Wolfpack have gone under in five straight against ACC teams, while FSU has failed to reach the total in seven of it's last 10 overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-23-17 |
Texas Tech v. Houston UNDER 72 |
|
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
98 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on TTU@HOU to go UNDER the total.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one of the highest scoring teams in the country. They come into Houston ranked #1 in passing, averaging just shy of 400 yards per game. Houston though owns one of the top defenses in the country, allowing opponents to average less than 10 points per game so far. Texas Tech has a history of struggling against the tougher teams, and I don't think they can pile on the points here in Houston. The Cougars held the Wildcats to just 16 points in Arizona two weeks ago, and they have a history of shutting down high powered offenses. Last year they faced two ranked teams, and won both of those games. They held #3 ranked Oklahoma to just 23 points, and #5 ranked Louisville scored just 10 points in a loss at Houston. The Cougars have gone under in four straight at home, and seven of their last eight overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-22-17 |
Utah v. Arizona UNDER 60.5 |
|
30-24 |
Win
|
100 |
87 h 19 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on UTAH@ARI to go UNDER the total. The Utes defeated Arizona at home by a score of 36-23 last season, and that game went over the total of 53. Three of the previous four meetings between these two teams have failed to reach the total, and only one of the last 10 meetings have seen over 60 points scored. The Wildcats have proven that they can run up the score against inferior teams, scoring 60+ points in wins over Northern Arizona and UTEP. They didn't fare quite as well in a 19-16 home loss to Houston. The Utes are similar to Houston in that they should be suited to slow down Arizona's high powered running game. The under is 17-7-1 in Utah's last 25 games versus teams above .500. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-16-17 |
Kentucky v. South Carolina UNDER 51 |
Top |
23-13 |
Win
|
100 |
106 h 57 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on UK@SOCAR to go UNDER the total.
The Gamecocks have upset the apple cart so far this season, winning as an underdog against N.C. State and Missouri. Their defense has been impressive, holding Missouri to just 13 points last week. This will be a revenge game of sorts for South Carolina, hosting the Kentucky Wildcats who have defeated them in three straight seasons. Last year's game was a defensive battle, with Kentucky winning by a score of 17-10. In 2015 the Gamecocks lost at home by a score of 26-22 to Kentucky. To say that the Gamecocks have a history of playing low scoring games within their conference, would be an understatement of epic proportions. The under is 10-1 in South Carolina's last 11 games versus SEC teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-16-17 |
Kansas State v. Vanderbilt UNDER 49 |
|
7-14 |
Win
|
100 |
106 h 51 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on KST@VAN to go UNDER the total. The Kansas State Wildcats won nine games last year, and beat Texas A&M by a score of 33-28 in the Texas Bowl. So far this season they look even better, which should be expected as they return most of last year's starters. Senior quarterback Jesse Ertz has thrown for over 500 yards and four TDs, and he's run for 100+ yards and a TD. Bill Snyder's squad plays on the road at Vanderbilt this week, and they are asked to cover a 3.5 point spread. The Commodores ranked 96th in the country in passing last year, averaging fewer than 200 yards per game. Junior quarterback Kyle Shurmur is back, and he's put up decent numbers against Middle Tennessee and Alabama State. I don't expect that to continue here against a stingy Wildcats defense. The Commodores have failed to cover in five straight home games versus teams with a winning record, while the Wildcats have covered in four of their last five non-conference games.The under is 20-7-2 in Vanderbilt's last 29 games overall. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-16-17 |
LSU v. Mississippi State UNDER 52.5 |
|
7-37 |
Win
|
100 |
105 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on LSU@MISST to go UNDER the total.
The Tigers have allowed just 10 points in their first two games of the season, including an impressive 27-0 win over BYU. They will play at Mississippi State this week, and the Bulldogs gave them a scare last year. LSU won, but didn't cover in a 23-20 home victory over Mississippi State in 2016. That game wasn't nearly as close as the score would indicate however, as the Bulldogs scored two TDs in the final five minutes. I expect to see a typically defensive battle here between two SEC rivals. The under is 15-5-1 in LSU's last 21 games versus SEC teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-09-17 |
Georgia v. Notre Dame UNDER 55 |
|
20-19 |
Win
|
100 |
108 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on UGA@ND to go UNDER the total.
The Bulldogs lost starting quarterback Jacob Eason early in their season opener versus Appalachian State. Freshman Jake Fromm stepped up and threw for 143 yards and a TD on 10-of-15 passing. Georgia was 8-5 overall last season, and three of their five losses came in games decided by three points or less. They will be getting a generous amount of points here on the road against unranked Notre Dame this week. The Irish only won four games last year, but they beat Temple by a whopping 33 points in their season opener. They did the bulk of their damage with the ground game, running for 422 yards and five TDs on 44 carries. Georgia's defense isn't going to allow the Irish to put up those kind of gaudy numbers, and I expect this to be a gritty defensive battle. The total for this game is lower than it has been in any of Georgia's last 10 games. Only two of those 10 contests saw more than 55 points scored. The Bulldogs have gone under in 13 of their last 16 versus teams with a winning record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-09-17 |
Western Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 50 |
|
14-28 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on WMU@MSU to go UNDER the total (1/H).
The Spartans won their season opener at home by a score of 35-10 versus Bowling Green. That victory might have been even more impressive than it looks. They gave up just three points in the first half, and held the Eagles to a total of 212 total yards. Bowling Green quarterback James Morgan completed just 10-of-31 passes for 145 yards and an INT. Michigan State hosts rivals Western Michigan in Week 2, and the Broncos are coming off an impressive game against USC. That game was tied heading into the 4th quarter, but not because Western Michigan had any success throwing the ball. Sophomore quarterback Jon Wassink threw for just 67 yards and an INT on 11-of-22 passing. The Broncos have gone under in four straight against BIG10 teams, while the Spartans have gone under in five of their last six non-conference games. The last time the Broncos played at East Lansing, they lost by a score of 26-13. I expect a similar result this week. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
08-31-17 |
TULSA v. OKLAHOMA STATE UNDER 69 |
Top |
24-59 |
Loss |
-105 |
49 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on TULSA@OKST to go UNDER the total.
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane open the season as a double-digit dog on the road in Stillwater, and the bookmakers set a sky high total in the 70s for this game. Tulsa was an offensive juggernaut last year, but most of the offensive talent from that squad has moved on. In two games against ranked teams last season, Tulsa failed to impress. Neither of those games saw a total as high as we see here in this game, and against Ohio State they managed just three points. The Cowboys come into this season with high expectations, and their offense should be in good shape with Heisman hopeful Mason Rudolph at quarterback. If you include their bowl game, Oklahoma State played four non-conference games last season. Only one of those saw 70 points scored, and that was a 45-38 win over Pittsburgh. I expect Tulsa to really struggle on offense against an experienced Oklahoma State defense. While the Cowboys should get their fair share of points, it's likely that there could be a few hiccups before they start firing on all cylinders. This is evidenced by the fact that they've failed to reach the total in four of their last five games in August.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schuile
|
12-31-16 |
Washington v. Alabama OVER 52.5 |
Top |
7-24 |
Loss |
-103 |
19 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WAS@BAMA to go OVER the total. The Crimson Tide will be a double digit favorite over Washington in the Peach Bowl, but the Huskies offense might give them some trouble. Alabama has only lost one game in the last two seasons, and that was a 43-37 home loss to Ole Miss last year. Chad Kelly lit them up for 341 passing yards and three TDs in the victory. The Rebels nearly did it again this season, as Kelly threw for a whopping 431 yards and three TDs in a 48-43 home loss. If there's a weakness in the Alabama defense, it's that they've failed to contain elite quarterbacks over the last two seasons. Kelly wasn't the only quarterback to have a big game against Alabama this season, Austin Allen threw for 400 yards and three TDs when Arkansas lost 49-30 at home to Alabama. Jake Browning was one of the nation's top quarterbacks this season, throwing for 3,280 yards with 42 TDs and just seven picks. Given almost a month to prepare for this game, these offensive coordinators should have plenty of tricks up their sleeves. Both these teams have trended toward high scoring games, with the Huskies going over in four of their last five non-conference games. The Tide have gone over nine of their last 11 bowl games, and the over is 19-6-1 in their last 26 neutral site games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-26-16 |
Michigan State v. Penn State UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
12-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
107 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MSU@PSU to go UNDER the total.
The Spartans are a lot better than their 3-8 record, and they proved that by nearly upsetting the Buckeyes at home last week. Four of their eight losses have come by four points or less, and they've played far better defensively in recent weeks. Running back L.J. Scott has carried the offense, running for 282 yards and two TDs on 39 carries the last two weeks. We could see both teams lean on the run this week when they play at Penn State. The weather forecast is calling for wind and freezing cold temperatures, similar to last week's game versus the Buckeyes. The Stakes couldn't be any higher for the Nittany Lions, who can clinch a spot in the BIG10 Championship game with a win, and a Michigan loss to Ohio State. Penn State's defense has surrendered just 14 points in it's last two home games, and they've held the Spartans to less than 20 points in three of the last five head to head meetings. Previous meetings have gone over the total at a rate of 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams, but the number in this game is far higher than it was in any of the last seven meetings. I expect a close, low scoring game in bad weather this weekend.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-26-16 |
Michigan v. Ohio State UNDER 48.5 |
Top |
27-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
103 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MICH@OSU to go UNDER the total.
The Buckeyes just narrowly escaped with a 17-16 win on the road at East Lansing last week, and they will face another tough test at home versus Michigan in Week 13. There's a lot on the line here, as the loser is likely going to be eliminated from the playoffs. Michigan bounced back from a 14-13 loss at Iowa to beat Indiana by a score of 20-10 last week. The Wolverines offense is still sputtering though, and backup quarterback John O'korn three for just 59 yards on 7-of-16 passing in his first start since Wilton Speight went down with a broken collar bone. J.T. Barrett didn't have a great day either, throwing for just 86 yards and a TD on 10-of-22 passing. Both coaches will say that the weather was to blame for last week's poor performance on offense, but in a high stakes game in Columbus in late November, defense should reign supreme. These two teams rank 1st and 3rd respectively in total defense, and the weather man is calling for another cold and windy day in Ohio.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-24-16 |
LSU v. Texas A&M UNDER 48 |
Top |
54-39 |
Loss |
-115 |
13 h 0 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LSU@TAM to go UNDER the total.
The Tigers are coming off an ugly 16-10 home loss to Florida, and they come into College Station asked to cover a big spread as a road favorite. That's going to be challenging without leading rusher Leonard Fournette, and I expect the Aggies to keep this game close. Texas A&M has lost two of four since Trevor Knight went down with a season ending injury, but those losses came in games decided by a combined total of eight points. Backup quarterback Jake Hunenak has thrown for 811 yards with six TDs and just two INTs on 59.8 percent passing so far, but he has his work cut out for him against this tough LSU secondary. The Tigers have won four straight in this series dating back to 2012, and all four of those games went under the total. Their two wins at College Station each came by less than seven points. LSU has played three games away from home, losing two of those three and scoring less than 20 points in each of those losses. Last week's home loss to Florida was particularly deflating, getting stuffed on the goal line twice at the end of the game. LSU has gone under in nine of it's last 10 games in the month of November.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-19-16 |
Oklahoma v. West Virginia UNDER 67 |
Top |
56-28 |
Loss |
-115 |
83 h 38 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OKLA@WVU to go UNDER the total.
The 8-1 Mountaineers aren't getting much respect from bookmakers this week, listed as a home underdog to the 8-2 Oklahoma Sooners. Everybody loves Oklahoma's offense, and we've seen quarterback Baker Mayfield put up some impressive numbers. He threw for 545 yards and seven TDs against Texas Tech, and he had big games against Texas, Iowa State, TCU and Baylor. None of those teams can play defense like West Virginia. The Mountaineers have shut down a few high powered offenses already this year, holding the likes of TCU, Texas Tech and Texas under 21 points. West Virginia might want to focus on running the ball here at home, especially after Skyler Howard was picked off three times last week against Texas. The weather forecast in Morgantown is calling for a 90% chance of rain, as well as high winds. The Sooners have failed to reach the total in five straight, while West Virginia has gone under in five of it's last six overall. This total appears to be a little inflated, especially given the bad weather.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-29-16 |
Stanford v. Arizona UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
34-10 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on STAN@ARI to go UNDER the total.
Stanford has lost three of it's last four games, and has scored an average of just 11 points per game during that span. Ryan Burns is really struggling at quarterback for the Cardinal, and he's thrown five INTs and just one TD pass in his last three starts. Christian McCaffrey has been banged up, failing to run for 100 yards in each of his last three starts. He wasn't able to play in Stanford's 17-10 win at Notre Dame. The good news for the Cardinal is their defense has played well, holding Colorado to 10 points last week, and Notre Dame to 10 point the week earlier. Arizona has lost four straight, and it's offense only managed 14 points in a home loss to USC last week. Stanford's defense should make life difficult for the Wildcats, and I think we'll see another low scoring game here in Arizona. The Cardinal have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-20-16 |
BYU v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 |
|
27-28 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 40 m |
Show
|
This is a 2-team (7.5 point) teaser with BYU+UNDER.
The BYU Cougars come into Boise State riding a three game winning streak, and their overall record of 4-3 is quite impressive when you look at their schedule. Losses to #12 ranked West Virginia and #18 ranked Utah came by a combined eight points, and they lost at home to UCLA by a score of 17-14. Their defense has allowed 21 points or less in five of seven games. The Broncos defense ranks 23rd nationally, allowing less than 20 points per game. Those numbers are little skewed though, considering their soft schedule.
Both teams have relied heavily on a power running game in recent weeks. Boise State running back Jeremy McNichols ran for 217 yards and a pair of TDs last week, carrying the ball a season high 40 times. Jamaal Williams ran for 286 yards and five TDs in BYU's win over Toledo a few weeks ago. I expect both teams to try to establish the run here on Thursday, and the result should be a close low scoring game. BYU has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings in this series, and Boise State has failed to reach the total in nine of it's last 10 home games.
Take BYU+UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-15-16 |
West Virginia v. Texas Tech UNDER 84 |
|
48-17 |
Win
|
100 |
111 h 5 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WVU@TTU to go UNDER the total.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are an offensive juggernaut, but they could be slowed by the undefeated West Virginia Mountaineers this week. West Virginia held Kansas State to just 16 points last week, and the Mountaineers rank 15th nationally in passing defense. They've allowed just four passing TDs, while picking off opposing quarterbacks five times. That's not good news for the nation's leading passer Patrick Mahomes, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. He threw for at least 300 yards 10 times last season, but was held to a season low 196 yards with three TDs and one INT on 21-of-34 passing in a 31-26 loss to West Virginia. The total for this week's game is astronomically high, in fact it's far higher than it was in any of the previous four meetings. Only one of those four games went over the total, when Texas Tech won 37-27 at West Virginia in 2013. That still falls well short of the number these teams are being asked to reach here in this game. I expect the Mountaineers defense to make enough stops to keep this game from reaching this inflated number.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-08-16 |
Alabama v. Arkansas OVER 48.5 |
Top |
49-30 |
Win
|
100 |
78 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
10-08-16 |
Auburn v. Mississippi State UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
38-14 |
Win
|
100 |
71 h 5 m |
Show
|
|
10-01-16 |
Arizona v. UCLA UNDER 59 |
Top |
24-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
119 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ARI@UCLA to go UNDER the total.
The UCLA Bruins are coming off a tough home loss to Stanford, but once against their defense was extremely impressive. The Bruins made Christian McCaffrey look human, limiting him to 138 yards on 26 carries, keeping him out of the endzone. Stanford was held to just three field goals, before Ryan Burns completed a game winning drive with a TD pass to J.J. Arcega-Whiteside with 24 seconds left in the game.
Previously, the Bruins held the Aggies to just 24 points in regulation in an overtime loss at College Station, and they held the BYU Cougars to just 14 points in a win in Provo. While the defense looks great, there isn't a lot to get excited about on offense. Josh Rosen looks nothing like the Heisman candidate he was supposed to be.
Arizona's defense has also been impressive, and these two teams have a history of playing low scoring games. Four of the last five meetings in California have failed to reach 50 points. The total for this Saturday's game is closer to 60. The Bruins have failed to reach the total in 11 of their last 14 home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-24-16 |
Nebraska v. Northwestern UNDER 48 |
Top |
24-13 |
Win
|
100 |
83 h 47 m |
Show
|
|
09-24-16 |
BYU v. West Virginia UNDER 51.5 |
Top |
32-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 41 m |
Show
|
|
09-24-16 |
Syracuse v. Connecticut UNDER 57.5 |
Top |
31-24 |
Win
|
100 |
26 h 10 m |
Show
|
|
09-23-16 |
USC v. Utah UNDER 47 |
Top |
27-31 |
Loss |
-107 |
14 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on USC@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Utah Utes are 3-0, but when you really examine those three victories, none of them are all that impressive. Despite the fact that they've played three unranked opponents, they've scored an average of just 26 points per game, ranking 90th nationally. The Trojans haven't looked great defensively, but keep in mind that they've played two defending conference champions (Alabama and Stanford). When matched against a lesser opponent, they didn't look too bad. USC held the Utah State Aggies to just seven total points, and 253 total yards in Week 2. Sam Darnold will step in at quarterback for the Trojans, but he faces a Utes defense that ranks top 10 nationally. Darnold was 5-of-7 for 45 yards with an INT against Stanford last week. Given the history between these two conference rivals, we should expect to see a defensive battle. The last time the Trojans played here they lost 24-21, and the under in 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-22-16 |
Clemson v. Georgia Tech UNDER 57.5 |
Top |
26-7 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 41 m |
Show
|
|
09-10-16 |
Central Florida v. Michigan UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
14-51 |
Loss |
-110 |
94 h 60 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on UCF@MICH to go UNDER the total.
The Wolverines took full advantage of a travel weary Hawaii team last Saturday, beating the Warriors by a score of 63-3. I expect them to face a slightly tougher challenge here at home against a UCF team that pitched a shutout in Week 1. The Knights were 0-12 last season, but I expect them to be far more competitive here in 2016. This program is only two years removed from a 9-4 season and an AAC Championship. As impressive as Michigan's offense looked last week, their passing game wasn't exactly what you would call explosive. Wilton Speight was picked off on his first pass attempt, and finished with 145 yards and three TDs on 10-of-13 passing. The Knights have played five straight non-conference games without going over the total, and the under is 20-5-1 in their last 26 games during the month of September. Weather conditions in Ann Arbor are expected to be less than ideal, with rain and wind in the forecast.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-03-16 |
Western Michigan v. Northwestern UNDER 52 |
Top |
22-21 |
Win
|
100 |
23 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WMU@NW
The Wildcats had one of the nation's top defenses last year, resulting in 12 of their 13 games combining for fewer that 52 points. They open the 2016 season at home versus Western Michigan, and the Broncos should be over-matched here. Western Michigan had success against opponents in the MAC last season, but didn't fare to well in non-conference games against Power Five teams. They scored an average of just 17.6 points per game in losses to Michigan State, Georgia State and Ohio State. Unlike the aforementioned teams, Northwestern doesn't have an explosive offense to run up the score. The Wildcats opened up last season with a 16-9 loss to Stanford, and they've gone under in nine straight games in the month of September. The under is 24-8 in the Wildcats last 32 home games, and Northwestern has failed to reach the total in 16 of their last 21 non-conference games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-11-16 |
Alabama v. Clemson OVER 50.5 |
Top |
45-40 |
Win
|
100 |
77 h 4 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on CLEM@BAMA to go OVER the total.
I watched Alabama shutout the Spartans, but I think their defense is getting far too much credit for that performance. They face an entirely different monster here in the championship game, facing a Clemson team with a full bag of tricks on offense. DeSean Watson threw for 3,699 yards and 31 TDs this season, and he ran for over 1000 yards with a dozen rushing touchdowns. They have a talented running back in Wayne Gallman, who ran for 150 yards and a pair of TDs against Oklahoma. The Tigers defense though has given up plenty of points lately. Clemson gave up an average of more than 27 points in it's final four games of the regular season, and they gave up 37 points in a win over North Carolina in the ACC Championship game. While Derrick Henry gets all the press, Atlanta's underrated quarterback has done most of the damage in recent games. He completed 25-of-30 passes for 286 yards and two TDs in the win over Michigan State. He's thrown seven TD passes and no picks over his last four starts. I think we'll see both teams score their fair share of points tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
01-01-16 |
Florida v. Michigan OVER 39 |
|
7-41 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on MICH@FLA to go OVER the total.
The Florida Gators fell apart at the end of the season, just squeaking by FAU, and then losing 27-2 at home to Florida State. They needed overtime to get past Florida Atlantic, and their offense looked just brutal in that game. Treon Harris threw for 134 yards on 19-of-38 passing, failing to get into the endzone. He's facing a daunting task here in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, going up against an elite Michigan Defense.
The Wolverines looked like a playoff team until a fumbled punt was returned for a TD on the final play of a 27-23 home loss to the Spartans. They bounced right back winning four straight before getting crushed by the Buckeyes in their season finale. Senior quarterback Jake Ruddock really came on at the end of the season, passing for an average of 324 yards over his last four games. He threw 11 touchdown passes and just two interceptions in those games.
Michigan has plenty of weapons on offense, and I think we'll see the Wolverines find the endzone plenty today. So far this bowl season, we've seen a lot more offense than defense, even when teams with good defenses have played. Florida has a lot of talent on it's defense, but I wouldn't expect it to be at it's best here today.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-30-15 |
Memphis v. Auburn OVER 62.5 |
Top |
10-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MEM@AUB to go OVER the total.
The Memphis Tigers won't be intimidated facing an SEC team in the Birmingham Bowl, as they beat on a much better SEC team when they won at home by a score of 37-24 against Ole Miss in October. I think they'll score their fair share of points against Auburn here, but it might not matter if they can't stop the Tigers from scoring. Memphis ranked 113th nationally allowing opponents to average over 269 passing yards per game during the regular season. Auburn's quarterback Jeremy Johnson had a disappointing season, but he looked pretty solid scoring four TDs in a 56-34 win over Idaho in Week 14. Allowing the Vanals to score 34 points in that game doesn't say a lot for their defense. So far we haven't seen a lot of defense in these bowl games, and I expect that trend to continue here today.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-28-15 |
Pittsburgh v. Navy OVER 52.5 |
Top |
28-44 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on PIT@NAVY to go OVER the total.
The Navy Midshipmen will play the Pittsburgh Panthers at home in the Military Bowl, and I expect to see both these teams score their share of points. The total opened at 56, but has since been bet down a few points. Navy won 10 games during the season, and it's Triple-Option Offense was very successful. Pittsburgh managed to beat Georgia Tech earlier this season, but the Yellow Jackets who run a similar offense ran all over them, totaling 376 yards and three rushing TDs in a 31-28 loss. They lost to Notre Dame, and the Irish ran for 175 yards, winning 42-30. Pittsburgh has gone over in four of it's last five non-conference games, and Navy has gone over in nine of it's last 13 games on artificial turf.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-17-15 |
Ball State v. Ohio UNDER 53 |
Top |
31-48 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 10 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BALL@OHIO to go UNDER the total.
The Ohio Bob-Kittens will host Ball State in a Tuesday night game in the MAC. I'm calling them the the Bob-Kittens because their offense hasn't been all that ferocious lately. That being said, their defense did pitch a shutout in a 27-0 win over Kent State last week. I think we should see a similar score here tonight. Ball State has been one of the worst teams in the country this season, and they only managed 152 yards of total offense in a loss to Western Michigan last week. They gave up 54 points in that game, but Western Michigan's offense is a helluva lot better than this "Bob-Kittens" offfense.
Ohio only attempted 14 passes last week, and Derrius Vick threw for just 73 yards. The Cardinal likely won't be able to contend with Ohio's running game, so there is really no need to ask Vick to air it out here either. Ohio is only averaging 25 points per game, ranking 91st nationally. Eight of the last 10 of the Bobcats home games has gone under, and the Under is 10-4 in Bobcats last 14 conference games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-31-15 |
Nebraska v. Purdue UNDER 54 |
Top |
45-55 |
Loss |
-110 |
22 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NEB@PUR to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Cornhuskers versus the Boilermakers in Indiana. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 70% chance of rain, with winds as high as 24 km/h.
- Tommy Armstrong has been the Huskers biggest weapon on offense, both with his arm as well as his legs. He's thrown for over 2000 yards and 16 TDs this season, but he will not suit up here against Purdue as he's sidelined by a foot injury. - The under is 20-9 in Cornhuskers last 29 games on grass. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Connecticut v. Cincinnati UNDER 58 |
Top |
13-37 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on UCONN@CIN to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Huskies versus the Bearcats in Cincinnati. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain, with winds as high as 24 km/h.
- The total for Saturday's game is far higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings between these two teams.
- Cincinnati has played six straight unders versus teams with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Indiana v. Michigan State UNDER 61.5 |
Top |
26-52 |
Loss |
-106 |
20 h 23 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on IND@MSU to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Hoosiers versus the Spartans in East Lansing. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 60% chance of rain, with winds as high as 29 km/h. - Michigan State ranks 70th nationally rushing for an average of 156 yards per game. They rely heavily on Connor Cook's arm, which could be neutralized by the wind here today. - The Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 home games. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
17-41 |
Loss |
-109 |
20 h 18 m |
Show
|
This is a 9* play on OHIO@BUFF to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Bobcats versus the Bulls in Buffalo. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 70% chance of rain, with winds as high as 34 km/h.
- The Under is 15-7-1 in Bobcats last 23 road games.
- The Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Wisconsin v. Illinois UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
24-13 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 29 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on WISC@ILL to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Badgers versus the Illini in Champaigne Illinois. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- While there is just a 20% chance of rain, the forecast calls for high winds of up to 31 km/h.
- Wisconsin ranks 12th nationally in total defense, and has held opponents to an average of 10.9 points per game.
- The Badgers have played five straight unders, and Illinois has gone under in six of it's last seven home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Miami (OH) v. Western Michigan UNDER 56 |
Top |
13-35 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 11 m |
Show
|
This is a 5* play on M-OH@WMU to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Red Birds versus the Broncos in Kalamazoo. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain, with winds as high as 31 km/h. - The Under is 30-13 in Redhawks last 43 games in October. - Miami-OH ranks 125th nationally in total offense. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Bowling Green v. Kent State UNDER 59 |
Top |
48-0 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 15 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BGSU@KENT to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Falcons versus the Golden Flashes in Kent. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 70% chance of rain, with winds as high as 24 km/h. - Falcons quarterback Matt Johnson has thrown for 10 TDs the last two weeks, but that was at home. He had thrown just two TD passes in his last two road games. - The Under is 13-3-1 in Golden Flashes last 17 conference games. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 49.5 |
Top |
30-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NW@NEB to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Wildcats versus the Cornhuskers in Lincoln Nebraska. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The Wildcats have scored a grand total of 10 points in their last two games, and they rank outside the Top 100 in passing yards as well as points scored.
- Nebraska ranks in the Top 10 nationally in run defense, allowing opponents to average fewer than 100 yards per game on the ground.
- The wind is likely to put a damper on the passing game, as the forecast calls for winds up to 24 km/h.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-17-15 |
Arizona State v. Utah UNDER 56 |
Top |
18-34 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 55 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on AZST@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Utah Utes have done what no other team in the country have come anywhere close to doing, and that is beating Michigan. At the time it didn't seem very significant, but at this point it's a signature win that could put them in the playoff picture. They host conference rivals Arizona State on Saturday night, in a game that has revenge written all over it. The Utes lost last season at Arizona State by a score of 19-16 in overtime.
With windy and rainy conditions on the forecast for Saturday night in Salt Lake City, we could see another defensive battle here this time around. That would seem to play into the hands of the home team, who have one of the top running backs in the country. Devontae Booker ran for 222 yards and two TDs at home versus California last week.
Utah also picked off California's stud quarterback Jared Goff five times, giving them 12 interceptions total this season, tied for second in the country. The Sun Devils are 0-9 all time on the road versus Top 5 teams, and they've gone under in five of their last six overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-03-15 |
Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
22-24 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 21 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ND@CLEM to go UNDER the total.
The Irish have managed to remain undefeated and stay ranked in the Top 10 despite losing their starting quarterback Malik Zaire and running back Tarean Folston. This will be their toughest test by far, and it won't be easy hanging with the Tigers at Death Valley.
After finishing first in the country in total defense in 2014, the Tigers are currently ranked 4th in yards allowed this season. Clemson has the advantage of additional rest coming off a Thursday night game last week at Louisville. The Tigers should be well rested and well prepared for this "must win" game for both teams. The winner will be a playoff contender, while the loser will likely drop out of the playoff picture.
The weather conditions could play a role in this game, as the forecast is for heavy rain and wind in Clemson on Saturday night. That will limit both teams in the passing game, forcing them to lean on the run.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-03-15 |
Bowling Green v. Buffalo UNDER 67.5 |
|
28-22 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 49 m |
Show
|
This is an 8* play on BGRN@BUFF to go UNDER the total.
The 2-2 Buffalo Bulls will be a big underdog at home to Bowling Green this Saturday, mostly because the Falcons quarterback leads the nation in passing with 1760 yards. Matt Johnson may not be able to air it out as often this week, with the weather forecast in Buffalo calling for heavy rain and wind during the game. The Falcons have won four straight versus Buffalo, but the last three of those game fell well short of the total. Neither of these two teams have played a lot of high scoring games in October, with the Falcons going under in 14 of 17, and the Bulls falling short of the number in seven of their last 10 in October.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule.
|
10-03-15 |
Texas Tech v. Baylor UNDER 89 |
Top |
35-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 58 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TTU@BAY to go UNDER the total.
The bookmakers are expecting a shootout in Texas this Saturday, as the total in the Texas Tech versus Baylor game is said to be the highest in college football history. Both these teams play a fast pace offensive style, and they have a history of playing high scoring games. Each of the last five meetings have gone over the total, with both teams scoring a ridiculous amount of points. That has caused the bookmakers to open with a total of 85.5, which the public has already bet up significantly. The last time I saw a total with this much hype was when Baylor played Oklahoma State in December of 2012, and that game ended with Baylor winning 41-34 (well below the expected total).
In order for these teams to combine to score 90+ points, we need a lot of things to go right for both of these offenses. It doesn't take much to slow the pace down. It could be penalties, injuries, turnovers, and all of a sudden 10-15 minutes has gone by and there haven't been any points scored. The Red Raiders starting quarterback Pat Mahomes was injured in the loss to TCU, and he wore a brace on his knee while finishing that game. The injury limited his mobility, and the Red Raiders were forced into running the ball a little more than they usually do. The word on the street is that Mahomes will be able to play, but if he's not able to do everything he normally does, that has the potential to slow the pace of the Texas Tech offense.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-26-15 |
UCLA v. Arizona UNDER 64 |
Top |
56-30 |
Loss |
-106 |
100 h 22 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on UCLA@ARI to go UNDER the total. The Bruins narrowly escaped with a come from behind win at home over BYU on Saturday. For the second straight week freshman quarterback Josh Rosen struggled, throwing for just 106 yards with a TD and three picks on 11-of-23 passing. The Associated Press still has the Bruins ranked in the Top 10, ahead of teams like Oregon, Texas A&M and Alabama. With tough road games against Arizona and Stanford in the next three weeks, they appear to be vulnerable to an upset. The Wildcats gave them all sorts of trouble last season, limiting them to just three points in the first half of a 17-7 home victory. Arizona has knocked off Top 10 teams in each of Rich Rodriguez’s three seasons as head coach, and I like their chances of making it four in a row here this week. The Bruins will have to replace Myles Jack, while Arizona is expected to get Scooby Wright back after he missed a couple games with a knee injury. With Rosen struggling, expect UCLA to lean on it's running game, burning up the clock in the process. These teams only scored 10 points in the first half of last year's game, and I see no reason for a sky high total here this week. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-19-15 |
BYU v. UCLA UNDER 60 |
Top |
23-24 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 45 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BYU@UCLA to go UNDER the total.
The Cougars upset Nebraska with a Hail Mary pass in the dying seconds in Week 1, and then they did it again at home against Boise State on Saturday. These two victories have propelled BYU into the Top 25, and some are even calling the Cougars a dark horse playoff contender. It might be a little premature for BYU fans to start celebrating though, as they have a tough game coming up on the road at UCLA, and surely they can’t expect to execute a Hail Mary this time around. With a healthy Taysom Hill I might have believed this was a game they had a shot at winning, but I can’t see Tanner Mangum pulling another miracle out of his hat here in California.
The Bruins beat UNLV last week, but Josh Rosen and Jerry Neuheisel combined to throw for just one TD and three picks, completing less than half of their attempts. They face a Cougars defense that has looked pretty solid during a 2-0 start, with a total of four INTs on opposing quarterbacks so far.
Six of the last eight meetings between these two teams have gone under, and the Bruins have trended under at a rate of 5-1-1 in their last seven home games.
Take UNDER,
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-19-15 |
Northwestern v. Duke UNDER 49 |
Top |
19-10 |
Win
|
100 |
93 h 59 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NW@DUKE to go UNDER the total.
After a 2-0 start that included a shocking upset win over Stanford in their season opener, the Wildcats have moved into the Top 25. Their defense has not surrendered a touchdown in the first two weeks, and they are on the road at Duke this Saturday. They have won six of their last seven versus Duke, and they’ve won five straight at Durham. The Wildcats are a 3.5 point underdog on Saturday. Northwestern DE Ifeadi Odenigbo told the Chicago Tribune after the Wildcats’ shutout win Saturday he expects them to do the same to Duke. In a game that I expect to be a hard fought defensive battle, it’s awful tempting to take the points.
Rather than pick a side though, I think the better play is on the total. Neither team is prolific on offense, and both teams take pride in playing strong defense. They have played four times since 2002, and not one of those games came close to reaching the total here for today's game. The Wildcats have seen the total go under in seven of their last eight non-conference games, and seven straight in September. Duke has failed to reach the total in eight of it's last 11 overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-19-15 |
UNLV v. Michigan UNDER 48 |
Top |
7-28 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 7 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on UNLV@MICH to go UNDER the total.
The Wolverines won big at home against Oregon State last week, and their defense continues to impress. I'm still a little hesitant to back this Michigan team as a big favorite though, as it's not going to be easy to run up the score without any serious threat in the passing game. Jake Ruddock didn't get into the endzone in the home opener, throwing for just 180 yards and an INT on 18-of-26 passing. He's now throwing twice as many picks (4) as TDs (2).
The Rebels are coming off a home loss to UCLA, but their defense gave the Bruins quarterbacks a bit of a tough time. Josh Rosen and Jerry Neuheisel combined to throw for just one TD and three picks, completing less than half of their attempts. The Rebels chose to run the ball 43 times, picking up 181 yards but only managing a late field goal to avoid being shutout.
UNLV is likely at risk of being shutout again here in the Big House, where the Wolverines have seen the total go under in four straight. Michigan has also failed to reach the total in five straight non-conference games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-12-15 |
Boise State v. BYU UNDER 55 |
Top |
24-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
115 h 19 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on BSU@BYU to go UNDER the total.
It was a bitter-sweet beginning to the season for the Cougars, who upset Nebraska with a Hail Mary pass, but lost start quarterback Taysom Hill for the rest of the season. The Cougars host Boise State on Saturday night, and the Broncos looked rather lackluster in a home win over the Washington Huskies.
New quarterback Ryan Finley looked pretty shaky, completing 16-of-26 passes for 129 yards and an interception. The defense did all the heavy lifting though, limiting the Huskies to just 179 total yards.
These two teams have a history of playing low scoring defensive battles, and prior to last year's meeting they had gone under in the previous three meetings dating back to 2004. One of those games was the most epic defensive battle I have every seen in college football, when the Broncos won 7-6 on the Blue Turf in 2012.
Tanner Mangum was the hero for BYU last week, throwing for 111 yards and a TD on 7-of-11 passing. He threw a 42 yard strike to Mitch Matthews with one second left on the clock giving the Cougars the win. The freshman has his work cut out for him here this week against a stout Boise State defense, and the Cougars are surely going to miss Taysom Hill.
These teams scored a ton of points in last year's meeting, but both teams have since had to replace their quarterbacks as well as their leading rusher. With both offenses missing that firepower, I think we'll see a far more defensive battle this time around.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-12-15 |
Oregon State v. Michigan UNDER 48 |
Top |
7-35 |
Win
|
100 |
83 h 50 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ORST@MICH to go UNDER the total.
The Wolverines lost on the road at Utah in Week 1, and they return home to host another Pac-12 team in Oregon State this Saturday. The Beavers are adjusting to life without the PAC-12 All Time passing leader Sean Mannion, who was drafted by the St. Louis Rams. They focused on running the football in a 26-7 win over Weber State, and they ran for 281 yards in the victory.
We should see a defensive battle here in Michigan, as the Wolverines have one of the best defenses in the country, and the Beavers only allowed 178 total yards last week. Neither team showed much promise in the passing game, Jake Ruddock was picked off three times in Week 1, and Seth Collins threw for less than 100 yards for the Beavers.
Michigan is asked to cover an enormous spread when you consider it has failed to cover in nine straight against opponents from the PAC12. I think bookmakers aren't giving enough respect to this Oregon State defense, and I expect to see a closely contested defensive battle here.
The Wolverines have seen five of their last six home games fall short of the total, and they've gone under in four of their last five versus PAC12 teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-12-15 |
Houston v. Louisville UNDER 54 |
Top |
34-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
105 h 44 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on HOU@LOU to go UNDER the total.
Louisville lost 31-24 to Auburn in Week 1, but came away from that game with plenty of positives. They picked off Tigers quarterback Jeremy Johnson three times, limiting him to 131 yards on 11-of-21 passing. Their own offense didn't impress much though, with Reggie Bonnafon and Lamar Jackson combining to throw for just 167 yards on 17-of-33 passing.
The last meeting between these two teams was a 20-13 home win for the Cardinals, and I expect a similar result here this time around. Houston has failed to reach the total in eight of it's last 11 games versus a team with a losing record, and seven of it's last nine games in September.
The Cardinals have trended under at home at a rate of 20-9-1 in their last 30 home games. I don't think Houston is going to have much success here in Louisville, and I think these teams will struggled to score a combined 50 points. With a total in the mid fifties, I think the boomakers have made a mistake.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-11-15 |
Utah State v. Utah OVER 44 |
|
14-24 |
Loss |
-106 |
90 h 44 m |
Show
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This is a 5* play on USU@UTAH to go OVER the total.
The Utes won a defensive battle at home against Michigan in Week 1 by a score of 24-17. The bookmakers are calling for another low scoring battle here on Friday night against rivals Utah State, but I think the number here is a little too low.
Since 2008 these teams have met four times, and the Utes have won three of those four games. The total in all of those games was set at 50 or higher, and three of those four games went over. The exception was a 27-20 Aggies win in 2012, which is still more points than the total for this game.
Chuckie Keeton did not look sharp at quarterback for the Aggies last week, throwing for just 110 yards and an INT on 16-of-33 passing. He threw for 314 yards and a pair of TDs against Utah the last time these teams met. He also ran the ball for 85 yards and a TD .
The total has gone over in five of the last six meetings in this series, and I'll take a stab at the over with an extremely low total here in this game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-07-15 |
Ohio State v. Virginia Tech UNDER 53 |
|
42-24 |
Loss |
-109 |
13 h 42 m |
Show
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This is a Free #NCAAF play on OSU@VT to go UNDER the total. The Buckeyes come into the 2015 season as a unanimous #1 in all the polls, and I think they are every bit as good as they are cracked up to be. They should be all fired up here in Week 1, with a chance to avenge their only loss of last season. The Hokies upset Ohio State in Columbus by a score of 35-21, and J.T. Barrett had his worst game of the season throwing three INTs. J.T. Barrett wasn't the only quarterback that struggled in last year's game, as the Buckeyes also picked off Michael Brewer twice.
That game went way over the total of 46, but we see a much higher number here in Blacksburg tonight. I think the value lies with a play on the under, as I think the defenses of both teams should dominate here in Week 1. The Hokies have seen the total go under in 14 of their last 20 games on grass, and 11 of their 13 games last season failed to reach the number that is listed here tonight. Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-05-15 |
Texas v. Notre Dame UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
3-38 |
Win
|
100 |
392 h 32 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on TEX@ND to go UNDER the total.
The Irish will host the Texas Longhorns in their season opener, and Notre Dame is a double digit favorite. I don't think Texas is getting enough respect though, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a close, low scoring game decided by just a few points.
While this is just the second season under Charlie Strong, I think the Longhorns are far better than people are giving them credit for. They were 6-6 last season, and five of their six losses came against Top 25 teams. The only exception was a home loss to BYU, a team that probably should have been ranked at the time, and would find it's way into the Top 25 shortly after.
They lost to #12 UCLA by just three points, and they came very close to upsetting #11 ranked Oklahoma in Dallas, losing 31-26. The Texas defense was quite good last year, while the offense was their weakness. Tyrone Swoopes returns at quarterback, after throwing for 2409 yards with 13 TDs and 11 TDs in 2014.
Malik Zaire will take over at quarterback for the Irish, after Everett Golson transferred to Florida State. He's got plenty of skills, but he lacks experience and this could be a tough opponent all things considered.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-04-15 |
Baylor v. SMU UNDER 74.5 |
Top |
56-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
84 h 6 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BAY@SMU to go UNDER the total.
The Baylor Bears have scored more points than any other team in the country over the last two seasons, and that's why we see such a big number here tonight against an inferior opponent. There's no question that this is going to be a blowout, but I think that the bookmakers are being a little too optimistic about just how many points these teams can score in their season opener.
These two teams met in Week 1 last season, and the Bears shutout SMU winning 45-0. That was in Waco, and this time they will travel to Dallas. I don't expect the Mustangs to have much success scoring on Baylor's defense, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bear's offense show signs of rust with a new starting quarterback here in Week 1.
These teams have played each other 10 times since 1990, and Baylor has won every time. All but one of those games were blowouts, but only once did they combine to score more than 75 points.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-06-14 |
Missouri v. Alabama OVER 48.5 |
Top |
13-42 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 31 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on MIZZ@BAMA to go OVER the total.
The Crimson Tide are coming off a wild 55-44 win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl, and they are heavily favored in the SEC Championship game at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.
Missouri has won six straight, and the Tigers defense is ranked 13th in the nation with opponent's averaging under 20 points per game. They've struggled against elite running backs though, allowing Toledo's Kareem Hunt to run for 143 yards and a TD in Week 2, Indiana's Tevin Coleman to run for 132 yards and a TD in Week 4, and Georgia's Nick Chubb to run for 143 yards and a TD in Week 6.
Alabama's T.J. Yeldon ran for 127 yards and a pair of TDs in the Iron Bowl, and I expect him to have a big game here in Atlanta. Success running the ball should open things up for Blake Sims and Amari Cooper in the passing game.
Before you get too impressed with Missouri's six game win streak and it's 10-2 record, let's look at their schedule. Only one of their 12 opponents is currently ranked in the Top 25, and was a 34-0 home loss to the Georgia Bulldogs. They also lost at home to unranked Indiana, an embarrassing defeat for an SEC team.
I'm expecting Alabama to pile on the points here, and the over is 10-1-1 in the Tide's last 12 neutral site games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-28-14 |
Arizona State v. Arizona UNDER 62.5 |
Top |
35-42 |
Loss |
-106 |
11 h 9 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ARZST@ARIZ to go UNDER the total.
The Wildcats host the Sun Devils in Tuscon on Friday, and both teams are tied with a 9-2 record. This is a huge game for both teams, who are gunning for first in the Pac-12 South, along with UCLA who is also sitting at 9-2. Arizona's defense has been impressive lately, allowing an average of just 18 points over their last four games.
They might need the defense to come up big if starting QB Anu Solomon is unable to go, he left lat week's game with a foot injury and has since been seen wearing a walking boot. The Wildcats opted to lean on the run with backup Jesse Scroggins in the game, as he only attempted five passes, completing three of those four 64 yards.
Nick Wilson ran for 218 yards and three TDs against a strong Utah defense last week, and I see no reason why they wouldn't continue to feed the hot hand.
While both teams are capable of putting points on the board in a hurry, I find that in big divisional battles like this, often it's the defenses that shine. Public money appears to be on the over, but there are some long standing trends that point toward a low scoring game. The Wildcats have only seen the total go over in two of their last 10 home games, and going back further reveals that 20 of their last 27 home games versus teams with a winning record have gone under the total. All things considered, this number looks a little high.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-22-14 |
Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
13-37 |
Win
|
100 |
59 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on OSU@WASH to go UNDER the total.
The Huskies host Oregon State Saturday night, and the Beavers are a dangerous team right now. They ended a four game losing skid with an upset win over Arizona State last week, and need just one more win to become bowl eligible. They will likely need to get that win here in Washington, because their final game comes at home against Oregon.
It's not going to be easy against a Washington defense that plays particularly well at home. The Huskies limited Stanford to 20 points, and held the Sun Devils to 24 in home losses. Washington has also taken three of the last four meetings, but the key trend here is that the total has gone under in five of the last six meetings at Husky Stadium.
The Weather is also a potential factor that could slow down both teams on offense, with rain and wind expected in Seattle tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-22-14 |
USC v. UCLA UNDER 61 |
Top |
20-38 |
Win
|
100 |
57 h 43 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on USC@UCLA to go UNDER the total.
The Trojans will take on the Bruins in Pasadena, and this is a game with plenty at stake. Both teams are trying to win the Pac-12 South, and earn a shot at playing in the Conference Championship game. Both these teams have a load of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and I expect this game to be a tight one.
That's certainly been the case when these two teams have played each other over the past decade, with seven of the last eight head to head meetings going under. Only one of those eight games saw a total as high as 60, and tonight's game has a total that's sky high. That hasn't stopped the public from betting on the over, and I think were getting great value, with a number that appears to be rather inflated.
The news that USC has reinstated star DB Josh Shaw certainly won't hurt the Trojans defense.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-22-14 |
Louisville v. Notre Dame UNDER 53 |
Top |
31-28 |
Loss |
-106 |
52 h 13 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LOU@ND to go UNDER the toal.
The Irish were a playoff contender before losing to Florida State last month. They could have easily won that game, but they've since lost three of four, with the only win coming against Navy in a game that could have gone either way. The Cardinal also lost a heartbreaker to the Seminoles, but unlike Notre Dame they bounced back with a convincing road win at Boston College.
The Cardinals defense ranks 10th in the nation, allowing opponents to average just over 17 points per game. That unit could get a boost with the return of senior linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin and defensive lineman Pio Vatuvei.
The Irish had ranked near the top of the country on defense, but they've struggled to stop anyone in recent games. The good news for the Irish is that starting QB Will Gardner is out of the Cardinal, and his backup Reggie Bonnafon hasn't impressed much.
The weather conditions for this game are expected to be less than ideal for both offenses though, with rain and freezing cold temperatures in the forecast. Winds are expected to exceed 25 KM/H, and mixed with rain that could make it tough in the passing game.
The Cardinals have played six straight unders on grass, and the Irish have seen the total go under in 17 of their last 21 versus the ACC. In a low scoring game dominated by defense, you have to like the chances of failing to reach a total over 50.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-11-14 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 59 |
Top |
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 25 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on TOL@NIU to go UNDER the total.
Last week I bet the under when the Huskies played Ball State. Here is what I had to say prior to kickoff: "The total for this game looks a little high in my opinion, but I guess these two teams have a history of playing high scoring games. You can forget about that history though, because in all those previous games the Huskies offense was pretty close to unstoppable with dual threat QB Jordan Lynch. Northern Illinois has a different look on offense this season, averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. They fell well short of that average in their last game, throwing for a total of just 54 yards in a 28-17 win over Eastern Michigan."
The Huskies host Toledo tonight, and weather conditions at Huskie Stadium are expected to be cold with heavy rain and wind. This should force both teams to lean heavily on the run, and that should help keep it a low scoring game. Toledo could be without it's starting quarterback who is dealing with a leg injury.
Only one of the last five meetings in Illinois have gone over the total, and given the conditions, we should expect another low scoring affair here.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-05-14 |
Northern Illinois v. Ball State UNDER 63 |
Top |
35-21 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 37 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on NIU@BALL to go UNDER the total.
The total for this game looks a little high in my opinion, but I guess these two teams have a history of playing high scoring games. You can forget about that history though, because in all those previous games the Huskies offense was pretty close to unstoppable with dual threat QB Jordan Lynch.
Northern Illinois has a different look on offense this season, averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. They fell well short of that average in their last game, throwing for a total of just 54 yards in a 28-17 win over Eastern Michigan.
Ball State is also adjusting to life after a prolific QB, as they lost Keith Wenning to the NFL draft. Sophomore Jack Milas threw for 225 yards on 18-of-36 passing for no TDs and no INTS in a 35-21 win over Akron in his last start.
The home team has seen the total go under in nine of it's last 13 when coming off a bye week, while the Huskies have failed to go over the total in all but on of their last five versus a team with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-04-14 |
Bowling Green v. Akron UNDER 58 |
Top |
27-10 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 27 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BG@AKR to go Under the total.
The Zips are coming off back to back losses on the road, but they return home to host Bowling Green on Tuesday night. They have won 3-of-4 at home, and the only loss was to undefeated Marshall. Their defense limited opponents to a total of just 25 points in those three victories, and they rank 22nd overall in the nation allowing just over 20 points per game.
Starting QB Kyle Pohl has missed the last two games, and his status for tonight's game remains unclear as he recovers from a concussion. The Falcons lost their starting quarterback in Week 1, and backup James Knapke has thrown almost as many picks (9) as TDs (10).
The Falcons have won five straight in this series, and each of the last two seasons the games have been low scoring, failing to go over 45 total points. Tonight's total is actually higher than it was in five of the last six meetings between these two teams.
With two struggling offenses playing each other, I can't see these teams putting up a lot of points. Weather is also likely to play a role, as conditions at Akron appear to be less than optimal. The forecast is calling for 50% chance of rain with winds at 29 KM/H.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-14 |
BYU v. Boise State UNDER 58 |
Top |
30-55 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 34 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on BYU@BSU to go UNDER the total.
Last week the Cougars played three solid quarters of football against Nevada, but suffered a complete collapse in the fourth. The Wolfpack rallied for 22 points, winning by a score of 42-35. It was their third straight loss since losing star QB Taysom Hill to a broken leg. The Cougars are expected to get Jamaal Williams back from an ankle injury, and that should be a boost to their running game.
BYU will be on the road at Boise State Friday night, and these two teams have a history of playing closely contested games. Each of the last three meetings have gone under the total, and the last time they played on the Blue Turf, Boise State won 7-6 in September of 2012.
Neither team is as good defensively as they were back in 2012, but the total for tonight's game is much higher than it was then. BYU hasn't gone over the total in any of it's three road games this year, and I expect that trend to continue tonight. Going back even further, they've seen eight of their last 11 road games go under.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-04-14 |
LSU v. Auburn UNDER 58.5 |
Top |
7-41 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 3 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LSU@AUB to go UNDER the total.
Two weeks after being shocked by Mississippi State in a 34-29 loss, the Tigers head out on the road to face last year’s SEC champions Auburn. LSU will start freshman QB Brandon Harris this week, and he’s been impressive in limited action so far. Harris has completed 73% of his passes and thrown six TDs and just one pick. “Harris has some ad-lib to his game which is very, very positive,” Miles said. “He is really fast and can really throw the ball. He can extend a play so really good things can happen.” LSU defeated Auburn by a score 35-21 at Baton Rouge last year, and it’s won six of the last seven meetings outright. The lone loss came by a score of 24-17 at Auburn in 2010, and the bookmakers are giving LSU more than a TD to work with here on the road this week. Auburn’s offense has sputtered the last two weeks, sneaking away with a victory in a close game at Kansas State, and failing to cover at home against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs last Saturday. It took a whole lot of luck for Auburn to make it to the SEC Championship Game last year. Along the way there were home wins over Washington State, Mississippi State, Georgia and Alabama, and all of those games were decided by seven points or less. Three of the last five head to head meetings between these two teams have gone under the total. Tonight's number is much higher that it was in those previous contests, in fact it's higher than the combined total in all five of those games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
10-04-14 |
Alabama v. Ole Miss OVER 51 |
Top |
17-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
63 h 54 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on ALA@MISS to go OVER the total.
It was only a few weeks ago that people were saying Alabama was in trouble, and that Blake Sims wasn't the answer at quarterback. I have been saying all along that Sims doesn't have to be great to replace a pretty average A.J. McCarron. He's coming off a huge game against Florida, throwing for 445 yards and four TDs.
Sims is definitely on the same page with wideout Amari Cooper, who caught 10 passes for 201 yards and three TDs against the Gators. While the offense is exceeding all expectations for Nick Saban's squad, the defense still looks a little suspect. The gave up 21 points against Florida, and 23 points against West Virginia.
Slowing down Bo Wallace should prove to be an even bigger challenge, he's thrown for 1271 yards and 11 TDs so far. I expect this year's contest to be more competitive than it has been in recent meetings between these two teams, and a close game with both teams scoring points could push the total over a pretty low number.
The total has gone over in six of Alabama's last seven games versus SEC opponents.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-04-14 |
Stanford v. Notre Dame UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
14-17 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 12 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on STAN@ND to go UNDER the total.
Coming into the 2014 season, most expected Stanford to regress. The Cardinal had to replace their entire offensive line, but so far the new personnel has been equal to the task. The defense has picked up right where it left off in 2013, and after five weeks Stanford ranks 1st in the nation allowing fewer than seven points per game.
The Cardinal travel to South Bend to take on the Irish this week, and Notre Dame also owns one of the nation's top defenses. The Irish though have been padding their stats against some pretty weak teams. Their 31-0 win over Michigan looked pretty impressive at the time, but the Wolverines have looked brutal since. Wins over Syracuse and Purdue don't impress much, and today's game will be a much stiffer challenge.
The Cardinal have won four of the last five meetings in this series, and Notre Dame's lone win (2012) comes with a big asterisk. Stepfan Taylor got in the endzone with a game tying TD run, but the officials had prematurely whistled the play dead before the RB had been brought to the ground. The Irish escaped, and enjoyed an incredible run of luck for the rest of the season that saw them go all the way to the National Championship Game. The party was over though when Alabama rolled to victory by a score of 42-14.
Four of those five meetings went under the total, and with two of the top defenses in the country playing in cold and windy weather, we should expect another low scoring battle today.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-03-14 |
Louisville v. Syracuse UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
28-6 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 24 m |
Show
|
This is a 10* play on LOU@SYR to go UNDER the total. Louisville already suffered a tough loss on the road at Virginia, but I don't think they're going to have quite as much trouble with Syracuse. The Orange haven't impressed so far at home, losing to Maryland and needing overtime to beat Villanova. Quarterback Terrel Hunt completed just 50% of his pass attempts for 219 yards with no TDs and an INT in the loss to the Terrapins.
It won't get any easier for Hunt tonight, with Louisville's defense ranking 9th in the country allowing opponents an average of just 14 points per game. The Cardinals 20-10 win over Wake Forest doesn't look that impressive, but a closer look reveals that Wake Forest only managed 100 yards of total offense in that game.
Louisville's freshman quarterback hasn't impressed so far, with just 357 passing yards and one TD in the three games he's played. They haven't asked him to do a lot though, and the good news is, he hasn't thrown any picks. As long as they continue to be conservative and lean on their defense and running game, the Cardinal should have little trouble with Syracuse. Louisville has seen the total go under in six of it's last seven road games, and with their struggling offense, that trend should continue tonight. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-27-14 |
Notre Dame v. Syracuse UNDER 51.5 |
Top |
31-15 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 11 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on SYR@ND to go UNDER the total. The Irish played in an NFL stadium in their last game, a 30-14 win over Purdue. They will take on the Syracuse Orange at the Meadowlands tonight, and I expect to see another low scoring tilt. The Irish defense has been dominant so far, pitching a shutout against Michigan, and they rank 3rd nationally allowing just 10 points per game. Syracuse QB Terrel Hunt has been a dual threat, and he ran for 156 yards and two TDs against Maryland last week. Notre Dame isn't likely to let Hunt run freely here tonight, and he hasn't been quite so efficient as a passer. He's completed just 58% of his passes for 488 yards with only 1 TD so far this season. He'll be without his top target, Ashton Broyld is sidelined by a leg injury. He leads the team with 11 catches for 125 yards. Notre Dame's ability to run up the score may be hampered by poor pass protection. The Boilermakers managed to get to Everett Golson, sacking him four times. The Irish are also missing one of their top receivers, as Amir Carlisle is out with a knee injury. The Irish have seen the total go under in 15 of their last 18 against teams from the ACC. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
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09-20-14 |
Florida v. Alabama OVER 50 |
Top |
21-42 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on FLA@ALA to go OVER the total.
Word on the street is that Alabama has lost it's air of invincibility. The Tide finished up last season with a loss to Auburn, and then they were embarrassed in a 45-31 loss to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl. We'll find out just how good the Crimson Tide are (or aren't), when they host SEC rivals Florida this afternoon.
The Gators are coming off a 36-30 OT win over Kentucky, that saw QB Jeff Driskel set a career high with 295 passing yards, and three TDs. He connected with Demarcus Robinson for 15 receptions for 216 yards and a pair of TDs. Driskel could continue to be successful against this Alabama defense that will be without safety Nick Perry, who will have to sit for the first half after being ejected in last week's game.
West Virginia was able to hang with Alabama in Week 1, and Clint Trickett totaled 365 passing yards in the 33-23 loss. I don't believe that either of these two teams are as strong defensively as they have been in past seasons, and the total for today's game looks a little low.
Alabama has seen six of it's last eight home games go over the total, and that is a trend that should continue today.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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09-20-14 |
Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech UNDER 52.5 |
Top |
27-24 |
Win
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100 |
76 h 43 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on GT@VT to go UNDER the total.
The Hokies were stunned by the air attack of the East Carolina Pirates, going down 21-0 in the first quarter, before they even knew what hit them. They buckled down after that though, holding the Pirates scoreless, and answering with three TDs of their own to tie the score at 21-21. Shane Carden only needed one minute to engineer the game winning drive that handed Virginia Tech a 28-21 loss.
Don't expect a repeat of that scenario this week against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. First of all, the Yellow Jackets are one-dimensional team that will try to pound away with the run, so whatever problems the Hokies had defending the pass shouldn't be an issue here today. A slow start last week might have been a product of over-confidence after upsetting the Buckeyes, but they should be ready to play from the opening kickoff tonight.
Virginia Tech's defense looked pretty solid against the run when they played Ohio State, limiting the buckeyes to less than three yards per carry. The Hokies have won six of the last seven meetings with Georgia Tech, and six of those seven games went under the total. Last year's meeting saw the Hokies win by a score of 17-10. Taking that into consideration, today's total looks way too high.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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09-13-14 |
Purdue v. Notre Dame UNDER 59 |
Top |
14-30 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 34 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on PUR@ND to go UNDER the total.
The Irish might be due for a let down after such an emotional win last week, shutting out rivals Michigan 31-0 in the final scheduled meeting between the two schools. They host another Big-10 team this Saturday, and the Irish are a 29 point favorite versus Purdue. There is no doubt that the Irish should win this game, after all.. they have won six straight against the Boilermakers since 2008. Most of those games were very close though, and four of the six went under the total. The two games that went over ... still didn't see enough points to go over tonight's total.
The line opened in the mid fifties, and has been bet up several points since. Notre Dame doesn't look like they are going to surrender many points to an inferior opponent, and the Irish have a history of playing low scoring games at home. The under is 34-16-1 in Fighting Irish last 51 games overall. I expect the Irish to punish the Boilermakers with the run, while shutting them down completely.
My Prediction: Notre Dame wins 41-10.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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09-11-14 |
Houston v. BYU UNDER 57 |
Top |
25-33 |
Loss |
-110 |
66 h 43 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on HOU@BYU to go UNDER the total.
The Houston Cougars scored 46 points in a home loss to BYU last season, but I don't expect Houston to have any success offensively here in Provo. BYU is coming off consecutive road wins, allowing a total of 17 points. Last week they held the Texas Longhorns to just seven points in Texas.
Houston meanwhile hasn't looked nearly as good offensively as they were a year ago, despite a 47-0 win over Grambling State last week. Cougars QB John O'Korn turned in a pretty pedestrian effort against an inferior opponent at home, completing 14-of-24 attempts for just 200 yards and one TD. This comes after he was picked off four times in the home opener versus UTSA.
On the defensive side of the ball though, Houston hasn't been too bad. They pitched a shutout last week, and UTSA only had 263 yards of total offense in Week 1. They aren't going to stop BYU, but they might be able to stop the Cougars from running up the score.
Houston has seen the total go under in six of it's last seven overall, while BYU has seen the total fall below the number in nine of it's last 10 games coming off a game with 200+ rushing yards. The home team should have no shortage of success running the ball tonight, burning up the clock as they do so.
My prediction: BYU wins 37-13
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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09-06-14 |
Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 |
Top |
24-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
75 h 40 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on CSU@BSU to go UNDER the total.
The Broncos lost to Ole Miss in Week 1 by a score of 35-14, but the game was actually a lot closer than the score would indicate. The Rebels took a 7-6 lead into the fourth quarter, before scoring three quick TDs, putting the game out of reach. Boise State QB Grant Hedrick completed 36-of-46 attempts for 264 yards and a TD, but he was picked off four times. Of course he was up against a strong defense hailing from the SEC, but don't think it's going to be a cakewalk against CSU.
The Rams defense turned in a solid effort last week, limited the Buffaloes to just 17 points. Colorado State used a power running game to defeat rivals Colorado, and they ran for 266 yards on 45 carries. Both Dee Hart and Tre Darells ran for over 100 yards, and the dynamic duo had three TDs between them. Life should be a little tougher here on the Blue Turf tonight though, the Broncos didn't give up much on the ground against Ole Miss. The Rebels only averaged 2.1 yards per carry, with 71 yards rushing total.
The Broncos have seen the total go under in four of their last five overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jess Schule
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09-06-14 |
Michigan v. Notre Dame UNDER 56 |
Top |
0-31 |
Win
|
100 |
72 h 55 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on MICH@ND to go Under the total. The Michigan Wolverines will travel to South Bend for the final scheduled meeting against rivals Notre Dame. Both these teams are coming off blowout wins over cupcakes in Week 1, but we should see a spirited battle here this week, and I expect points to be few and far between.
The Irish will try to avenge a 41-30 loss at Michigan last year, and they should have more success stopping the Wolverines at home. The last time Michigan played at South Bend, we saw the home team prevail by a score of 13-6. In fact low scoring games are the norm in South Bend, with the Irish seeing the total go under in 25 of their last 36 home games.
Everett Golson threw for 292 yards and a pair of TDs in the win over Rice last week, but he was just 3-of-8 for 30 yards and was picked off twice versus Michigan in the last meeting here at South Bend. He did not play in last year's loss at Michigan.
Seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams have had a total below 50, yet the total in this game is far higher than usual.
Take the UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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08-31-14 |
SMU v. Baylor UNDER 75 |
Top |
0-45 |
Win
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100 |
15 h 29 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on SMU@BAY to go UNDER the total.
The Baylor Bears owned one of the most prolific offenses in college football in 2013, and bettors are expecting them to be pick up right where they left off. Head coach Art Briles is wise in his years though, and he warns: "We know we're really going to have to be at our best, because this is 2014. All that stuff that happened last year, that's gone. It's gone,"
The Bears opened up last season with a 69-3 win over Wofford, and averaged over 70 points through their first four games. It might be a tough ask though to expect them to hit the ground running as they did a year ago. First of all, they aren't going to catch anybody by surprise. Every coach in the country has been watching film, trying to scheme a game plan that will at least slow this high octane offense. We saw a few teams succeed near the end of 2013, as the Bears averaged fewer than 30 points in their final three games of the regular season, and were spanked by UCF in the Fiesta Bowl.
Those same Knights played the Mustangs in their final game of the regular season, sneaking away with a 17-13 win. That was one of two games that SMU played against ranked opponents, the other a 42-13 loss to Texas A&M. The Mustangs greatly improved on defense near the end of last year, surrendering more than 28 points only once in their final five games, and covering the spread four times in that span.
Public money has been pouring in on Baylor and the over all week, driving this number even higher as the game approaches. I suggest sitting back and waiting to see how high the number will go, and taking a value bet on the under just before kickoff.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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08-31-14 |
Utah State v. Tennessee OVER 51 |
Top |
7-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
15 h 59 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on USU@TENN to go OVER the total.
The Vols will open the season against a very tough Utah State team, and they have to hope that an entirely new offensive line can get the job done. The good news for Tennessee is that they enjoy a significant size advantage with wide receiversMarquez North is 6'4", Jason Croom is 6'5". Josh Malone is 6'3", and Von Pearson 6'3". They will face an undersized Aggies secondary, and that could result in some big plays for the Vols.
Justin Worley is back at quarterback, and while he didn't impress last year, according to Tennessee coaching staff, he's been great in camp: "Well, I do believe that. Justin Worley has had a tremendous, tremendous offseason. [He] followed that up with a productive spring and then a very, very good and very solid training camp…I'm very encouraged by what I've seen with Justin and very confident in his ability to lead this football team." said Butch Jones.
The Aggies get dual threat QB Chuckie Keeton back, and he's got enough bags of tricks to cause fits for the Tennessee defense. Tennessee has seen the total go over in 13 of it's last 17 non conference games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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08-30-14 |
Oklahoma State v. Florida State UNDER 63 |
Top |
31-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
16 h 46 m |
Show
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This is 10* play on FSU@OKST to go UNDER the total.
Oklahoma State won 10 games last year, and many of those came against tough opposition in the Big 12 Conference. Their most impressive victory came against #3 ranked Baylor, in a 49-17 thrashing at home. None of their three losses came by more than 10 points, yet they are getting almost double that number in their season opener against Florida State.
The Seminoles are the defending national champions, but let's not forget that they needed to come from behind to beat Auburn by a score of 34-31 in the Championship Game in January. They lost five key starters on offense to the NFL draft, but Jameis Winston is back, and Florida State is still loaded.
Winston put up video game type numbers in 2013, and many people expect him to match those stats this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Famous Jameis take a giant step back this year though. He seems to have a knack for finding trouble, and would appear to be a prime candidate for letting success go to his head.
With a less experienced receiving corps, it would also be no surprise to see Jumbo Fisher lean more on the run in this first game. At the end of the day, the total looks a little high given the history with the Seminoles having played six straight unders in neutral site games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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08-30-14 |
Clemson v. Georgia OVER 54 |
Top |
21-45 |
Win
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100 |
13 h 16 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play CLEM@UGA to go OVER the total.
The Bulldogs lost at Clemson last year by a score of 38-35, and they appear to have an excellent chance at executing a little revenge at home in their season opener Saturday. The Tigers will have to replace QB Tajh Boyd and wideout Sammy Watkins. The Bulldogs went on to defy all odds by overcoming injuries to several key starters and still managing to win eight games last year.
With Todd Gurley healthy to start the season, this Georgia offense is likely to put up a lot of points. They scored an average 43 points in their home games last year, and all but one of those games saw the total go over 60.
I think Clemson is still going to be good this year, but this is a tough match-up in Week 1. They needed a lot of luck to only barely beat these Bulldogs at home last year, and now breaking in a new quarterback on the road is a tough ask.
Georgia QB Hunter Mason finished with 968 yards and five touchdowns while completing 60.9 percent of his passes in four games last season, so there is every reason to be optimistic as he takes over for Aaron Murray.
Take OVER. GL,
Jesse Schule
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08-30-14 |
Ohio State v. Navy OVER 53 |
Top |
34-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 29 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on OSU@NAVY to go OVER the total (10*)
By now we've all heard the news that Braxton Miller will miss the 2014 season for Ohio State, and this has caused oddsmakers to make some serious adjustments. The Buckeyes will bring in a new quarterback, but we've already seen examples of how that isn't always a bad thing. Look at what Kenny Hill was able to do for the Aggies in Week 1 (at my expense).
It's not like we haven't seen the Buckeyes play without Miller, as his backup Kenny Guitton saw plenty of action early last season, and it didn't slow the offense at all. In fact in the two games where Miller didn't play at all, they tallied an incredible 128 points.
Ohio State will also have it's hands full trying to contain Navy QB Keenan Reynolds, who led the country with 31 rushing TDs last year, setting a new record at his position. Ohio State has trended toward the over at a rate of 5-1 in it's last six games on field turf, and yet we've seen the number for this game drop roughly 10 points since it opened. I consider that to be an overreaction.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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08-28-14 |
Ole Miss v. Boise State OVER 52.5 |
Top |
35-13 |
Loss |
-113 |
18 h 33 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on MISS@BSU to go OVER the total.
The Rebels boasted one of the SEC's top passing offenses in 2013, and with quarterback Bo Wallace back under center, they could be even better this year. Wallace threw for over 3000 yards and 18 TDs last season, not bad when you consider he was playing in the SEC against the likes of Alabama, LSU and Auburn.
The Broncos were a defensive powerhouse during head coach Chris Peterson's tenure, but they dropped off significantly last year. They allowed an average of 25 points per game, despite a soft schedule that saw them face no ranked opponents. They were hammered by Washington in their opening game of the season, losing 38-6.
The good news for the Broncos is that their offense made strides when QB Grant Hedrick took over for Joe Southwick. His 15 TDs and just 5 INTs were pretty impressive when you consider he only started for half the season.
The bad news is that their defense is still a question mark, and with Peterson now in Washington, Bryan Harsin will have his hands full. The Rebels have seen the total go over in nine of their last 12 games played on field turf, and I'm expecting Wallace to have a big game against this inferior opponent.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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08-28-14 |
Texas A&M v. South Carolina UNDER 58 |
Top |
52-28 |
Loss |
-110 |
55 h 9 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on TAM@SOCAR to go UNDER the total.
The question everyone's asking is how will the Gamecocks replace Jadeveon Clowney, but perhaps the biggest concern for Spurrier's squad is whether or not QB Dylan Thompson can step up in place of Connor Shaw. Thompson was inconsistent at best last season, throwing for 783 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTs.
South Carolina opened last season with a 27-10 win over the North Carolina Tar Heels, continuing a trend of low scoring games in their season opener. The Gamecocks have seen the total go under in each of their last four games in the month of August.
Both teams will be introducing inexperienced quarterbacks on offense, so a conservative playbook wouldn't be a surprise. The Aggies offense will have a new look with Kenny Hill taking over for Johnny Manziel. "Don't expect the same, "Johnny Dollar" flash from the Aggies' latest quarterback."
Steve Spurrier predicts that both teams might be just trying to find their identity in Week 1: "They are probably a little bit like us that they haven't had a bunch of superstars to talk about this preseason," said Steve Spurrier, the Gamecocks' 10th-year coach. "Their players are anxious to earn their way, just like our guys."
The opening total was already too high in my opinion, and money is driving it even higher prior to game time. The Gamecocks have played four straight unders versus SEC teams, while the Aggies have seen the total go under in five of their last seven road games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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01-06-14 |
Auburn v. Florida State UNDER 68 |
Top |
31-34 |
Win
|
100 |
66 h 25 m |
Show
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This is a 10* play on FSU@AUB to go UNDER the total. Last year I played the over in the first half of the BCS game between Alabama and Notre Dame. I had this to say: "With the #1 & #2 defenses facing off against each other, this is expected to be a low scoring game with the total hovering around 40. Alabama has only played one game all season with fewer than 40 points scored, and that was a 35-0 shutout of Western Kentucky. I think it's a little naive to think the Notre Dame's defense is going to stop Alabama from scoring, keep in mind this is the same team that piled on 41 points against Michigan in their season opener, and the fewest points they scored all year was a total of 21, in a victory over LSU in the swamp." I will use similar logic here this time around, only this time it is a play on two high scoring offenses, that are being asked to reach an astronomical total. The public loves betting overs, and it's tough to blame them, as it is exciting watching teams put points on the board. Let's not forget that FSU actually has more impressive stats defensively than they do offensively. The Auburn offense relies heavily on a running game that will be up against the Noles defense that allowed an average of just 3.1 yards per carry this season. While FSU scored a lot of points, they were not quite as prolific when up against quality opponents like Florida, Miami and Duke, as none of those games combined for 60 points. We saw the total open at a very high number, in the mid 60s, an public money has driven that up 3-4 points. This creates quite some value on a play against the money. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
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