Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-26-21 | Bills v. Patriots -130 | 33-21 | Loss | -130 | 83 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on NE. I bet on the Pats a few weeks ago when they rolled into Buffalo, and here is what I said before that game: "Bill Belichick has the Patriots back on top in the AFC, and they roll into Buffalo as a three point underdog. The Bills are coming off a Thanksgiving Day win over New Orleans, but they have alternated wins and losses over their last six games. Historically the Pats have owned the Bills, the Patriots are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Buffalo. The road team is 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 meetings." This might be a revenge spot for the Bills, but I just think this is a bad matchup for Buffalo. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-25-21 | Colts +104 v. Cardinals | 22-16 | Win | 104 | 66 h 5 m | Show | |
5* |
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12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals UNDER 49 | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
8* |
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12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers -7 | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on GB. We saw Cleveland really struggle against a below average team last week, and now they face the mighty Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Christmas Day. The Packers are a heavy favorite, and this should be quite a mismatch. Baker Mayfield is back, but there are still a long list of players on the covid list, especially on defense. The Packers are 6-0 at home and all six of those wins came by double-digits. Aaron Jones has scored three TDs in his last two starts, and he should get plenty of touches here in what should be a blowout. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans UNDER 44 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. The Titans offense has struggled since losing Derrick Henry, averaging fewer than 15 points in their last four games overall. Their defense has continued to play well, allowing fewer than 20 points in those games. They rank 2nd in the NFL versus the run, allowing just 86.9 rushing yards per game. The Titans have failed to reach the total in six of their last eight home games, and with all the injuries points could be hard to come by here against the 49ers. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 45.5 | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Seahawks and the Rams are relatively lucky to come into this game with most of their players healthy. A couple extra days have allowed the Rams to get several players back from the Covid list. Both these QBs come in hot, with Russell Wilson throwing for six TDs and just one INT in his last three starts, and Mathew Stafford throwing for nine TDs and just one INT in his last three starts. Seattle still ranks dead last in total defense allowing almost 400 yards per game. When these teams played earlier this season the total was set at 53.5, and now in LA we see a much lower number. Expect Russell Wilson to score enough to keep this game interesting and push the total over. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-20-21 | Vikings -6.5 v. Bears | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Minny. The Bears have lost seven of their last eight games overall, and injuries are a huge concern heading into this Monday night matchup versus Minnesota. The Vikings are 6-7 overall, and the majority of their losses have come in games decided by just a few points. The Bears defense has given up 78 points in their last two games, and they face a Vikings offense that is firing on all cylinders. Dalvin Cook ran for 205 yards and two TDs in a win over the Steelers in his last start. He should have another big game coming off plenty of rest. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-20-21 | Raiders +3 v. Browns | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Vegas. We saw this line move several points with the Raiders the favorite, and after being re-scheduled the Browns have gone to -3. So far the indication is that the majority of the Cleveland players on the Covid list remain out, and therefore the Raiders should still have an advantage. Nick Mullens is presumed to be the starter for the Browns, and he's had plenty of trouble protecting the football. Mullens has thrown eight INTs in his last five starts. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-19-21 | Saints +11.5 v. Bucs | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Saints. The Saints beat the Bucs earlier this year despite losing Jameis Winston early in that game. The Bucs defense is strong against the run, but New Orleans ran for 152 yards and a TD in their 36-27 home win over Tampa. Taysom Hill has been a threat in the running game, and we have already seen Josh Allen run for 109 yards and a TD against the Bucs. Hill ran for over 100 yards versus Dallas, and scored a pair of rushing TDs against the Jets last week. I expect another big game from Taysom Hill. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-19-21 | Packers -2 v. Ravens | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -110 | 167 h 56 m | Show |
10* |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars -4.5 | 30-16 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Jags. Urban Meyer was not popular with the Jaguars players, and they might be eager to prove that he was the problem. James Robinson is one player that will have something to prove. He saw his workload dramatically reduced in recent weeks. He draws a favorable matchup this week against the Texans who rank dead last in the NFL versus the run. With Carlos Hyde out with a concussion, Robinson should get plenty of work. The Texans defense has allowed 147.9 rushing yards per game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts -130 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Indy. The Patriots are on top of the world after beating the Bills in spectacular fashion in a bad weather game in Buffalo. Their winning streak sits at seven games, and if they are ever going to suffer a let down this would be as good as spot as any. This is a huge game for the Colts, and Jonathan Taylor. The NFL's leading rusher has 10 rushing TDs in his last five games, and while the Patriots have one of the league's best defenses, they are better against the pass than they are versus the run. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -160 v. Chargers | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on KC. What do the Lions, Jets and Jaguars have in common? Well they all rank better than the Chargers at defending the run. LA is allowing over 140 rushing yards per game, only the Houston Texans rank worse against the run. We expect Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards Helaire to have a big night. He ran for 37 yards and two TDs on 10 carries in the win over the Raiders on Sunday. He didn't get much work in the second half of a blowout, and should come in with fresh legs. The Chiefs have won seven of their last eight games, allowing an average of just 11 points per game in those wins. It has been their defense and their running game that has carried them. This is a revenge game for KC, and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight in LA. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals -132 | 30-23 | Loss | -132 | 24 h 46 m | Show | |
10* |
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12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 43 | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. Cold winter nights at Lambeau Field are not an ideal setting for quarterbacks to pad the stats in the passing game. Justin Fields rarely tosses the ball around the yard at the best of times. He's only bettered this number twice this season, and in a home loss to the Packers he threw for 174 yards with a TD and an INT on 16-of-27 passing. Fields is coming back from a rib injury, and while he's healthy enough to start this game, there's no guarantee he will finish it. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-12-21 | 49ers v. Bengals +2 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
5* |
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12-12-21 | Saints -5 v. Jets | 30-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on N.O. The Saints have lost five straight, but they will be the favorite on the road at New York this week. The Jets rank dead last in the NFL in scoring defense, and with Alvin Kamara coming back we could see the Saints snap this skid. Kamara has played in eight games this season, scoring seven TDs. He should find plenty of holes in this Jets defense. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -142 | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on CLE. Fans of Lamar Jackson will have to face the facts, the dude has a history of folding at the end of the season when the weather gets colder and the games become more meaningful. His doubters will point out that he's thrown eight INTs (four of those in a home game against Cleveland) while throwing six TDs in his last four games. The Ravens have lost three of their last five overall. This is a tough spot for the Ravens, playing Cleveland on the road with the Browns coming off a bye. I expect Lamar to struggle once again. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -166 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on MIN. Minnesota has lost back to back games on the road, but the Vikings are 42-19 ATS in their last 61 games following a straight up loss. Their defense was a disaster in a loss to Detroit on Sunday, but they host a Steelers team that only averages 20 points per game. Kirk Cousins continues to put up solid numbers, but doesn't get a lot of credit from the media. He threw for 340 yards and two TDs on 30-of-40 passing in the loss to Detroit. Big Ben on the other hand has not had a spectacular season, and he's expected to retire at the the end of this season. He's not a fan of playing on short rest, and I don't expect he will be at his best here in Minnesota. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-06-21 | Patriots +3 v. Bills | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on New England. Bill Belichick has the Patriots back on top in the AFC, and they roll into Buffalo as a three point underdog. The Bills are coming off a Thanksgiving Day win over New Orleans, but they have alternated wins and losses over their last six games. Historically the Pats have owned the Bills, the Patriots are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Buffalo. The road team is 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-05-21 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. All of a sudden the Denver Broncos have won three of their last four and they rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense. The Chiefs have won four straight, and their defense has allowed just 12 points per gane during that span. They have been a lot more focused on their running game, and they ran for 126 yards and two TDs in a win over the Cowboys two weeks ago. Patrick Mahomes didn't throw a TD pass in that game, and he's only had one multi TD game in his last five starts. The under is 23-11 in the Broncos last 34 games in December, and the under is 4-1-1 in the last six head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-05-21 | 49ers -146 v. Seahawks | 23-30 | Loss | -146 | 1 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on SF. The Seahawks are a team in decline, and massive changes are coming. Russell Wilson is likely going to be playing elshwere next season, and he hasn't looked sharp since returning from injury. The Seattle defense ranks worst in the NFL in yards per game, and the 49ers come in off three straight wins, scoring 30+ in all of those games. This appears to be a spot where two teams are just going in opposite directions. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-05-21 | Cardinals v. Bears +7.5 | 33-22 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on CHI. Only two teams have allowed fewer points per game than Arizona this season (Denver and Buffalo). The Cardinals though are just 2-2 in their last four overall, and the offense has struggled with Kyler Murray battling injuries. The Bears defense ranks among the best in the NFL, and playing in December in cold and windy Chicago is an advantage for the home team. The under is 11-3 in the Cardinals last 14 road games, and the Bears have failed to reach the total in 18 of their last 24 in Chicago. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints +5 | 27-17 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on New Orleans. The Saints have lost four straight, prompting them to make a change at quarterback. Enter Taysom Hill who was quite successful filling in at QB last year. The Saints won three of the four games he started last season. Dallas has lost back to back games, and they have been hit hard by Covid19. Mike McCarthy won't be on the sidelines in New Orleans, and several players will miss the game. Amari Cooper is expected to return after testing positive a few weeks ago. The Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in New Orleans. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
5* |
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11-28-21 | Rams -125 v. Packers | 28-36 | Loss | -125 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on LAR. The Packers are banged up, and they face a stacked LA Rams team that comes in off a bye week. This could be a recipe for disaster for Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers has a broken toe, Aaron Jones has a knee injury, and the offensive line is in rough shape. We expect winter weather in Green Bay on Sunday, and the Packers have failed to reach the total in seven of their last eight games overall. The under is 22-7-1 in the Rams last 30 games as a favorite, and they have failed to reach the total in 12 of their last 16 coming off a loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-25-21 | Raiders +7.5 v. Cowboys | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 91 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on LV. The Raiders have lost three straight, and Derek Carr has thrown as many INTs (4) as he has TDs during that span. They are up against a Cowboys team that scored just nine points on three FGs in a loss at Kansas City on Sunday. Amari Cooper didn't play as he recovers from Covid, and he won't be available on Thanksgiving. Ceedee Lamb left Sunday's game with a concussion, but he's been back at practice and might be able to start. Ezekiel Elliott is dealing with a knee injury, and while he will play his workload is expected to be cut back. With all the injuries on offense, I am not sure the Cowboys should be asked to cover more than a TD here. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog, and the Cowboys are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-25-21 | Bears v. Lions +3.5 | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 46 h 0 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Lions. The Lions lost 13-10 at Cleveland last week, losing by three points or less for the third time this season. The Bears come in to this Thanksgiving Day matchup favored by 3.5, and that sets up the potential for that half point to be very significant. The last time the Bears played in the Motor City, they won by a score of 27-24 in September of 2020. Three of the last four head to head meetings have been decided by four points or less, so there is every reason to expect this game to be close. The Bears are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite, while the Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last five when scoring 15 points or less in their previous game. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-22-21 | Giants v. Bucs OVER 49.5 | 10-30 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Bucs will be a double digit favorite at home on Monday Night Football versus the Giants, but they have lost back to back games to Washington and New Orleans. While both those losses came on the road, the fact is that a pair of mediocre teams scored a total of 65 points in those games. Injuries in the secondary are hurting the Bucs, and without Vita Vea their run defense is suffering as well. Both these teams have offensive starters coming back from injury, and they have a history of playing high scoring games. The over is 6-0 in the last six head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-21-21 | Ravens v. Bears +6.5 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Bears. Chicago probably deserved to win in a controversial loss to Pittsburgh in their last game. They have had a long week to prepare for the Ravens, and this looks like a tough spot for Baltimore. The Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite, and they are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss. It's going to be cold and windy in Chicago, and this game should be a war of attrition. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-21-21 | Colts v. Bills -7 | 41-15 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Buffalo. The Colts might be biting off more than they can chew here on the road at Buffalo. Indy is 5-5 but when you look at their wins over the Jags, Jets, Texans and Dolphins, it doesn't inspire much confidence. The Bills are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall, and the favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings between these teams. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-21-21 | Washington Football Team v. Panthers -170 | 27-21 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Carolina. The media is making a big deal about the return of Cam Newton, but it's the return of Christian McCaffrey that has reversed their fortunes. He ran for 95 yards and caught 10 passes for 66 yards in last week's win over Arizona. He's played in five games this season, and Carolina is 4-1 in those games. This is a let down spot for Washington coming off a home win over The Bucs. They have failed to cover in four of their last five road games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +107 | 31-34 | Win | 107 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Vikings. Minnesota will be a home dog in this rivalry game versus the Packers, and this looks like a let down spot for Green Bay. In a home game versus Seattle, the Packers lost their star running back and a handful of defensive starters. That's gonna make it tough here against a Vikings team that is showing signs of improvement in the second half of the season. The Vikings are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Miami. At first glance the Dolphins are 3-7 and the Jets are 2-7, so you might assume these teams are close in terms of talent. The Jets rank dead last in the NFL in scoring defense, and their offense is in the hands of a 36 year old Joe Flacco. He's appeared in six games for the Jets over the last two seasons, and the Jets are 0-6 in those games. History favors Miami, the Dolphins are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-18-21 | Patriots -6.5 v. Falcons | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Matt Ryan over 0.5 INT. The Patriots defense ranks second in the NFL with 14 INTs in 10 games so far this season. They come into Atlanta as winners of four straight. Matt Ryan was terrible last week, throwing for 117 yards and two INTs on 9-of-21 passing in a loss to Dallas. He's thrown five picks in his last four starts, and this is not a favorable matchup for the Falcons. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-15-21 | Rams -174 v. 49ers | 10-31 | Loss | -174 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on LAR. The Rams are most people's favorite to win the Super Bowl, and they doubled down with the moves to add Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. They lost last week to the Titans, and that sets them up for a "get right" game here in San Francisco. The Rams are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home. LA has the better QB, and the better coach. The Niners drafted Trey Lance because they didn't trust Jimmy G. Kyle Shanahan might not be the answer either, and he should be on the hot seat. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last eight meetings, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-15-21 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. The Rams are most people's favorite to win the Super Bowl, and they doubled down with the moves to add Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. They lost last week to the Titans, and that sets them up for a "get right" game here in San Francisco. The Rams are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home. LA has the better QB, and the better coach. The Niners drafted Trey Lance because they didn't trust Jimmy G. Kyle Shanahan might not be the answer either, and he should be on the hot seat. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last eight meetings, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-14-21 | Bills v. Jets OVER 48 | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over. The Jets are a double digit dog at home versus Buffalo, but they might not be as bad as you think. There are 2-1 at home this season, and there is no denying that when Mike White steps in at QB they make things interesting. White has played in three games, completing 73 percent of his passes for 702 yards and five TDs. The Jets have gone over in five straight, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog. This might be a get right game for the Bills, but I expect Mike White to put some points on the board for the Jets. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-11-21 | Ravens -7.5 v. Dolphins | 10-22 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on Baltimore. In case you hadn't noticed, there are two NFL teams that are surely tanking this season. It was perfectly clear when Houston played Miami last week that neither team was all that interested in winning. Jacoby Brissett got the start in place of Tua Tagovailoa, and despite throwing for two picks and getting sacked four times, Miami hung on for a 17-9 win. To say that recent history favors the Ravens would be an understatement. Baltimore has won the last two meetings by a combined score of 99-10. The Ravens have covered in nine straight against the Dolphins, and six of those games were in Miami. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-07-21 | Titans v. Rams -7 | 28-16 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 6 m | Show | |
7* |
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11-07-21 | Packers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 101 h 0 m | Show | |
8 |
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11-07-21 | Packers +7.5 v. Chiefs | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 98 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on GB. So Aaron Rodgers is out with Covid, and the line has moved in favor of the Chiefs. Seems like a big overreaction to me. Keep in mind that the Chiefs are tied for last place in the AFC West, and last week just barely beat the Giants who were down their top two WRs and starting RB Saquon Barkley. The Packers still have studs at WR and RB, and a solid defense. The question is, how bad is backup QB Jordan Love? He's going to have to be pretty bad for the Packers to lose this game by more than a TD. We've already seen the Jets win with Mike White, the Cowboys win with Cooper Rush, The Browns win with Case Keenum and the Seahawks win with Geno Smith. Don't be surprised if we add Jordan Love's name to that list. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-07-21 | Patriots -177 v. Panthers | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 60 h 47 m | Show | |
5* |
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11-07-21 | Raiders -165 v. Giants | 16-23 | Loss | -165 | 60 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on LV. The Raiders continue to face adversity, coming off another week of tragic headlines and scandal. They have already proven that they can overcome these distractions, and I still believe they bring a lot more talent to the table than the sad sacked New York Giants. New York will not have starting RB Barkley and top two WR Sheppard and Galloday. The Giants are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 home games, and they are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-07-21 | Vikings v. Ravens OVER 49.5 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 47 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over. The Vikings know they need to be more agressive moving forward. Assistant coach Andre Patterson told reporters this week: "Instead of trying not to lose games, we need to go out and try to win". Being too conservative might explain why the Vikings offense ranks near the top of the league in total yards, but not in points scored. It's only a matter of time before those numbers even out. The over is 10-2 in the Vikings last 12 games following a straight up loss, and they have gone over in five straight road games. These two teams have gone over in five straight head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts OVER 45.5 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over. Last week the Jets totaled 511 yards and upset the Bengals winning 34-31. Nobody saw it coming, but perhaps we should have been more optimistic about Mike "Effin" White. After all he did step in the previous week and immediately New York's offense started moving the ball. The Colts have been far from perfect, and they have gone over in four of their last five overall. These teams have gone over in seven of the laat 10 head to head meetings, and with Mike "Effin" White under center the Jets offense could make some noise here. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-01-21 | Giants +10.5 v. Chiefs | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on NYG. We all know that the Chiefs are capable of playing a lot better than they have this season. That being said they were not a great first half team even during their Super Bowl seasons. They also weren't great at covering the spread even dating back to last season. The Chiefs are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games overall, and they have failed to cover in seven of their last eight as a home favorite. The Giants are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog. The bookmakers listing KC as the double digit favorite flies in the face of all the historical trends. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 55 | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 100 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. The Cowboys will make a decision on Dak Prescott before kickofff, but whether or not he plays it seems clear that he's not going to be 100 percent. The game plan here should be focused on a heavy dose of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. Only Cleveland has averaged more rushing yards per game than the Cowboys this season. The Cowboys have lost five of their last six at Minnesota, and the Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games versus a team with a winning road record. At 3-3 the Vikings appear to be flying under the radar, and this looks like a good spot for the home team. The under is 4-1 in the Vikes last five home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings -125 | 20-16 | Loss | -125 | 75 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Minny. The Cowboys will make a decision on Dak Prescott before kickofff, but whether or not he plays it seems clear that he's not going to be 100 percent. The game plan here should be focused on a heavy dose of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. Only Cleveland has averaged more rushing yards per game than the Cowboys this season. The Cowboys have lost five of their last six at Minnesota, and the Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games versus a team with a winning road record. At 3-3 the Vikings appear to be flying under the radar, and this looks like a good spot for the home team. The under is 4-1 in the Vikes last five home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-31-21 | Patriots v. Chargers -4 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 3 m | Show | |
8* |
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10-31-21 | Bengals -4 v. Jets | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 161 h 6 m | Show | |
5* |
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10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts -145 | 34-31 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Colts. The Titans were my pick to win the AFC South, but they are on the road in Indy this week coming off consecutive impressive wins over KC and Buffalo. This could be a let down spot against a Colts team that has been getting better every week. Indy has won three of their last four overall, allowing an average of 17 points per game during that span. The Titans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Indianapolis, and the Colts have covered in 14 of the last 20 head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-31-21 | Eagles v. Lions +3.5 | 44-6 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a free play on DET. The Lions are 0-7, and this week's home game is as good a chance as they willl probably have to win a game this season. Only two teams in history have gone 0-16 in a season, and one of those teams was the 2008 Lions. Detroit hasn't played that bad at home this season, losing close games to San Francisco, Baltimore and Cincinnati. They have covered in five of their last six versus the Eagles, and the Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Eagles are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss. This Philly team has no business being a favorite on the road, not even against the Lions. GL, Jesse Schue |
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10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on GB. It's a shame that Devonte Adams will miss this game due to Covid19 protocols, but Aaron Rogers still has plenty of weapons. In fact with the way that the Cardinals offense has been playing, getting Aaron Jones and the running game going, controlling the clock might not be a bad idea. Adams isn't the only star player who won't play tonight, as the news is out that J.J. Watt might be done for the season with a shoulder injury. Even more reason why the Packers should look to run on this Cardinals defense. The closest the Cardinals came to losing so far was a 34-33 home game against the Vikings, and Dalvin Cook ran for 131 yards on 22 carries in that game. The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus a team with a winning record, and the under is 5-1 in their last six versus Arizona. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-25-21 | Saints -197 v. Seahawks | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on New Orleans. The Seahawks trailed 14-0 at the half in Pittsburgh last week, and their second half rally was mostly a product of their running game. The Saints defense isn't an ideal opponent here, as only the Tampa Bay Bucs have allowed fewer rush yards per game than New Orleans. Leading rusher Chris Carson is out, Geno Smith is at QB, and New Orleans is coming off a bye week. This could spell disaster for a Seattle team that has too many issues to list them all. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers -191 | 30-18 | Loss | -191 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on SF. The Colts are coming off a blowout win over Houston, and Carson Wentz is really starting to settle in as QB. He's facing a tougher test this week, and I expect him to regress here against a stingy San Francisco defense coming off a bye. The 49ers pushed the undefeated Arizona Cardinals to the brink in their last game, losing by a TD after Trey Lance was stopped a half an inch short of the goal line on fourth down. If we see a similar effort from the Niners defense, it's going to be tough sledding for Carson Wentz. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-24-21 | Bears v. Bucs -12 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 64 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on TB. Justin Fields threw for 174 yards with a TD and an INT in last week's loss to Green Bay. He was sacked four times, bringing his total to 16 sacks in four starts. He's thrown more picks than TDs, and his completion percentage is barely over 50 percent. Any success the Bears have had this season has come with their running game, and that's a tough ask here matched up against a Bucs defense that is only allowing 55 rushing yards per game. Even with the injuries to Gronk and AB, the Bucs receiving corps is still pretty impressive with Mike Evans, Scotty Miller and Chris Godwin. This looks like a potential blowout. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-24-21 | Eagles v. Raiders -147 | 22-33 | Win | 100 | 64 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on LV. The Raiders appear to have put the John Gruden scandal behind them, or at least it looked like it last week in Denver. Derek Carr had a big game, throwing for 341 yards and a pair of TDs. The Eagles on the other hand got a back door cover in a home loss to Tampa, but Jalen Hurts threw for 115 yards with TD and an INT on 12-of-26 passing. The Eagles are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss. They have lost four of their last five against the Raiders, and this looks like another tough spot for a below average team with a below average QB. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-24-21 | Chiefs v. Titans OVER 55.5 | 3-27 | Loss | -105 | 134 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over. The Titans win over the Bills on Monday Night Football was quite impressive, but their defense was shredded by Josh Allen. It won't get any easier this week against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The last two meetings between these teams have gone over the total, even a high number such as 58 (the current number at some books). Kansas City ranks 29th in the NFL in scoring defense, and second in the NFL passing yards. This game has "shootout" written all over it. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns -119 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Browns. Cleveland is coming off an ugly home loss to Arizona, and the injuries are piling up. Bettors are lining up to fade the banged up Browns, moving the line from -6 to close to a pickem. The line dropped a few points on the news that Baker Mayfield was out, but I think Case Keenum is probably better than Baker (if Baker isn't healthy). Let's not forget that back in 2017 he won 13 games with the Vikings, throwing for over 3,500 yards with 22 TDs and 7 INTs. He's only 33 years old, and he should still be capable of stepping right in and playing above average (as far as a backup QB goes). It's also important to remember that the Broncos are 3-3, coming off three straight losses, and their three wins came against teams with a combined record of 3-14. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-18-21 | Bills -5.5 v. Titans | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Buffalo. The Bills have won five straight, and they come into Tennessee as a sizeable favorite. While some might think this is a let down spot after their win in Kansas City, I see this as a classic revenge game. Buffalo lost 42-16 at Tennessee last season, and they are in an ideal spot to avenge that loss on Monday night. The Titans defense has really struggled, especially against the pass. Josh Allen shredded the Chiefs defense for 315 yards and three TDs, and I expect him to do the same here against the Bills. The Titans will try to turn the game into a shootout, but that's not going to be easy versus the Bills #1 ranked scoring defense. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks v. Steelers UNDER 48 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 170 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. The Seahawks are bound to be a bit conservative on offense with their backup QB under center and their leading rusher on the IR. While Seattle ranks dead last in total defense, that is a little misleading. It hasn't necessarily translated into points the way you would expect. The Seahawks are allowing 25 points per game in a league where four teams are allowing 30+ points per game. The Steelers are also not the ideal team to take advantage of Seattle's defensive shortcomings. The under is 7-1 in the Seahawks last eight games following an ATS loss, and they have failed to reach the number in six of their last seven on the road. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +3.5 | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Patriots. I can't tell you that the Patriots are the better team, but I am a little skeptical that Dallas is going to come into Foxboro and blow out Bill Belichick and the boys. New England is 0-3 at home this season, but losses to Miami and Tampa came by three points combined. It's fair to say that the Pats got some help from the referees in the game against Brady, but it's also noteworthy that Mac Jones threw for 275 yards, two TDs and an INT on 31-of-40 passing in that game. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite. The Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -165 | 37-14 | Loss | -165 | 50 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Cleveland. |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns OVER 48 | 37-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over |
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10-17-21 | Dolphins v. Jaguars +3 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Jacksonville. The 1-4 Dolphins will be a favorite in London against the winless Jacksonville Jaguars, and it's hard to get excited about either one of these teams. Miami won their season opener on the road at New England by one point, in a game that they were about to lose before Damian Harris fumbled on the potential game winning drive inside the red zone. They have since lost four straight, three of those by double digits. We saw the best of the Jags when they played Cincinnati on TNF, but it wasn't enough for them to get a win. A similar effort here in London might be good enough for them to get the upset against a struggling Dolphins team. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 52.5 | 28-22 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Bucs come into Philly as big favorites, and they sit near the top of everyone's power rankings. That comes no thanks to their defense though, allowing almost 25 points per game. When you rank first in the NFL in passing, and you average over 33 points per game, you don't have to have a great defense. The Eagles last home game was a 42-30 loss to Kansas City, and Jalen Hurts threw for 387 yards and two TDs in the loss. He could have another big game here against a struggling Bucs secondary, and he's going to need to if the Eagles want to stay in the game. These teams have gone over in five of the last six head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -145 | 38-20 | Loss | -145 | 114 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on KC. The Chiefs have struggled so far this season, especially on defense. They face a high flying Buffalo team at home tonight, and this game is expected to be a shootout. The total for this game is set in the high 50s, so we are expecting both teams to score their share of points. As vulnerable as the Chiefs look, history would suggest that the Bills might not be the team to take advantage of their shortcomings. The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings versus KC. In last year's playoffs the Chiefs won at home by a score of 38-24. Tyreek Hill had nine catches for 172 yards, and Travis Kelce caught 13 passes for 118 yards and two TDs. I expect both Hill and Kelce to put up big numbers here against Buffalo. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-10-21 | 49ers v. Cardinals -5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Arizona. The 49ers come into Arizona without their starting QB, and their star TE. They are sending rookie Trey Lance into the fire, and he doesn't look like he's ready to start in this league. He faces the only undefeated team in the NFL, with an MVP candidate at QB. The 49ers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall, and they have failed to cover in six of their last seven versus the Cardinals. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers OVER 47 | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 42 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over. The Chargers defense ranks among the best in the NFL against the pass, but they have struggled a bit to defend the run. That could be a recipe for disaster against a Browns team that can pound the rock like no other. Cleveland leads the NFL in rushing averaging over 177 yards per game. The Browns have gone over the total in five of their last six versus teams with a winning record. They will have their hands full with Justin Herbert. Both these teams are going to put points on the board, and the total looks a little low. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-10-21 | Bears v. Raiders -5.5 | 20-9 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 30 m | Show | |
8* |
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10-10-21 | Packers v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | 25-22 | Loss | -109 | 1 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Packers offense comes into this game cooking, and this game in Cincinnati is expected to be a high scoring affair. Aaron Jones comes in with five total TDs in his last three games, despite being kept out of the endzone against the Steelers. I am expecting both teams to score their share of points here in Cincinnati. The over is 6-0 in the Packers last six versus a team with a winning record, and the Bengals have gone over in six of their last severn versus a teams with a winning road record. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-10-21 | Jets v. Falcons -145 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Atlanta. The Falcons blew a late lead last week against Washington, but Matt Ryan had a hell of a game. He threw for 283 yards and four TDs despite missing his top two receivers. Cordarelle Patterson came out of nowhere to catch five passes for 82 yards and three TDs. This week I expect Kyle Pitts to step up with a big performance. The Jets were fortunate to win last week after giving up 430 yards of total offense to the shorthanded Titans. The Falcons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 versus a team with a losing record. This looks like a potential "get right" game for Atlanta. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-07-21 | Rams -132 v. Seahawks | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the LAR. This could be a "get right" game for the Rams after an embarrassing loss to Arizona last week. They are on the road at Seattle, where they have had plenty of success in recent seasons. The Rams are 6-3 straight up in the last nine meetings, and they are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Rams are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. Seattle has failed to cover in nine of their last 11 when coming off a win. The Seahawks come into this game ranking dead last in total defense, allowing 445 yards per game. Sean McVay and Matt Stafford should be able to exploit that. A neck injury expected to limit Chris Carson, if he plays at all. This looks like a tough spot for the Seahawks. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -160 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on LAC. The Raiders are 3-0 and two of those three wins were thanks to late rallies in the fourth quarter. A road game at LA presents a far tougher challenge than they have faced in any of their previous three games. The Chargers are 2-1, with their one loss coming at home to Dallas in a game that was influenced by several controversial penalties. Justin Herbert outdueled Patrick Mahomes last week, and he's put up big numbers in two previous starts versus the Raiders. He threw for 640 yards, four TDs and no INTs against the Raiders as a rookie last year. The Raiders are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win, and they are due for a let down here on Monday night. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots OVER 49 | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Bucs defense has struggled so far while winning 2-of-3 games. They have allowed an average of 29 points, and opposing QBs are averaging 338 passing yards per game. This could allow Bill Belichick to scheme up a game plan for Mac Jones that will lead to points for the Patriots. Richard Sherman is expected to play at CB today, despite not playing a game in almost a year. This gives us an idea of just how shorthanded the Bucs are in their secondary. The over is 5-0 in the Bucs last five as a favorite, and they have gone over in five straight when coming off a loss. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 55 | 37-20 | Loss | -107 | 93 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. I had the under in the Falcons season opener versus Philadelphia, and here is what I said prior to that game: "The Falcons will be the favorite when they host Philly in Week 1, but this team might not be as explosive as it once was. Matt Ryan is now 36 years old, and Atlanta was just 4-12 in 2020. These two teams have gone under in five straight head to head meetings, and they failed to score 40 combined points in three of the last four meetings. This number appears to be a little inflated." The under is 11-5 in Washington's last 16 games overall, and they have failed to reach the total in 10 of their last 11 games in October. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rams -4.5 | Top | 37-20 | Loss | -102 | 93 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Rams. The Cardinals are undefeated, and Kyler Murray has been playing like an MVP candidate. This week looks like a tough spot for both Arizona and QB Kyler Murray, on the road at the Rams who ranks 1st in scoring defense and first against the pass allowing just 190 yards per game last season. Murray has really struggled against the Rams, throwing for 4TDs and 4 INTs in four career starts against them. The Rams won all four of those games, and the Rams are 9-1 straight up and 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The under is 13-3 in Cardinals last 16 road games, and Arizona has failed to cover in five straight versus a team with a winning record. The Rams are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite, and the under is 13-3 in Rams last 16 games as a home favorite. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-03-21 | Washington Football Team v. Falcons UNDER 48 | 34-30 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Under. I had the under in the Falcons season opener versus Philadelphia, and here is what I said prior to that game: "The Falcons will be the favorite when they host Philly in Week 1, but this team might not be as explosive as it once was. Matt Ryan is now 36 years old, and Atlanta was just 4-12 in 2020. These two teams have gone under in five straight head to head meetings, and they failed to score 40 combined points in three of the last four meetings. This number appears to be a little inflated." The under is 11-5 in Washington's last 16 games overall, and they have failed to reach the total in 10 of their last 11 games in October. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-03-21 | Titans -7 v. Jets | 24-27 | Loss | -104 | 89 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Titans. Tennessee has got back on track after losing their home opener to Arizona. Coming off big wins over the Seahawks and the Colts, they look to make it three in a row here in New York. The Jets are reeling, not only winless to start the season but rookie QB Zach Wilson has been a disaster. He's thrown six picks without any TD passes in his last two starts. Most teams would struggle without their top two WRs, but most teams don't have Derrick Henry. The NFL's reigning rushing champion has ran for over 300 yards and three TDs the last two weeks. They say it's not sharp to bet on road favorites, but there's nothing sharp about betting on a Jets team that is 2-17 straight up the last two seasons, with 13 of those losses coming by 7+ points. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 45.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. The Bengals are coming off an impressive win in Pittsburgh, and Joe Burrow threw three TD passes against one of the league's top defenses. Most significantly he didn't get sacked once, as the Steelers 75 game streak with at least one sack was broken. A home game against the Jags looks like a good spot for Burrow to fill the stat sheet. The Jags defense has allowed over 30 points per game so far, and opposing QBs are averaging over 300 passing yards per game. Burrow threw for 300 yards a TD and an INT in a 33-25 home win over the Jags as a rookie last year. With an improved offensive line, expect another big day for Burrow. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | 21-41 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Under. |
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09-26-21 | Bucs v. Rams +109 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 109 | 118 h 54 m | Show |
1 This is a 7* play on LA. The Bucs are heavy favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champions, and many are talking about a possible perfect regular season. They could be a favorite in every single game they play this season, but this game here in LA is the one spot on the schedule that could give them trouble. The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss, and they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in September. If anyone is going to get Tom Brady off his game, it would be Aaron Donald and the LA defense that has three INTs in the first two weeks. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-26-21 | Bears v. Browns -7 | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 114 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on Cleveland. Bears fans have been cheering for Justin Fields to take over at QB, and he will be the starter here in Cleveland. Be careful what you wish for! This looks like a tough matchup for the Bears. Fields threw for 60 yards and an INT on 6-of-13 passing in a win over Cincinnati last week, and he was sacked twice. The Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog. The Browns have scored 60 points in their first two games, averaging over 150 rushing yards per game. Baker Mayfield has been accurate, completing over 80 percent of his passes during a 1-1 start. The Browns should win big here at home. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-26-21 | Colts v. Titans -5 | 16-25 | Win | 100 | 114 h 18 m | Show | |
5* |
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09-26-21 | Saints v. Patriots -144 | 28-13 | Loss | -144 | 112 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Patriots. New England probably should be 2-0 heading into this Week 3 home game against New Orleans. A late fumble on what would have been the game winning drive cost them the victory in Week 1 versus Miami. Mac Jones has played well, throwing for 467 yards with a TD an no INTs on 74% passing in his first two NFL starts. Jameis Winston threw for 111 yards with two INTs on 11-of-22 passing in the loss at Carolina last week, and it won't get any easier facing this elite New England defense. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-23-21 | Panthers -7.5 v. Texans | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Panthers. Carolina is off to an impressive start, and they look good to move to 3-0 as they face the Texans in Houston on Thursday night. The Texans are 2-0 ATS so far, but they have allowed an average of 29 points per game through the first two weeks. Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence threw for over 300 yards and three TDs in a loss at Houston in Week 1. It won't get any easier with Davis Mills taking over at QB. He threw for 102 yards with a TD and an INT on 8-of-18 passing after Tyrod Taylor went down with an injury in Cleveland last week. The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games, while the Texans are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans OVER 43 | 24-9 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Over. Carolina is off to an impressive start, and they look good to move to 3-0 as they face the Texans in Houston on Thursday night. The Texans are 2-0 ATS so far, but they have allowed an average of 29 points per game through the first two weeks. Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence threw for over 300 yards and three TDs in a loss at Houston in Week 1. It won't get any easier with Davis Mills taking over at QB. He threw for 102 yards with a TD and an INT on 8-of-18 passing after Tyrod Taylor went down with an injury in Cleveland last week. The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games, while the Texans are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-20-21 | Lions +12 v. Packers | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Lions. Perhaps the biggest surprise in Week 1 was the Packers losing 38-3 to the Saints. We've been here before with Aaron Rodgers, and he's always come back with a vengeance. The Packers have lost six games in the LaFleur/Rodgers era, and they are 6-0 in each game following those losses. So it seems like the consensus opinion is that the Packers are just fine, and they will take out their frustrations on the hapless Detroit Lions on Monday night. While I wouldn't be surprised to see Aaron Rodgers and the offense respond in typical fashion, I am more concerned with a defense that gave up 38 points against the Saints, making Jameis Winston look like Patrick Mahomes. The Lions have covered the spread in seven of the last eight head to head meetings. The scored an average of 27 points in those games, and they didn't score less than 20 points in any of those games. Jared Goff might be a downgrade from Matthew Stafford, and he's certainly not the guy who will win you a Super Bowl, but he threw for 338 yards and three TDs in the loss to the Niners. He's capable of piling on points in garbage time. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Over. Perhaps the biggest surprise in Week 1 was the Packers losing 38-3 to the Saints. We've been here before with Aaron Rodgers, and he's always come back with a vengeance. The Packers have lost six games in the LaFleur/Rodgers era, and they are 6-0 in each game following those losses. So it seems like the consensus opinion is that the Packers are just fine, and they will take out their frustrations on the hapless Detroit Lions on Monday night. While I wouldn't be surprised to see Aaron Rodgers and the offense respond in typical fashion, I am more concerned with a defense that gave up 38 points against the Saints, making Jameis Winston look like Patrick Mahomes. The Lions have covered the spread in seven of the last eight head to head meetings. The scored an average of 27 points in those games, and they didn't score less than 20 points in any of those games. Jared Goff might be a downgrade from Matthew Stafford, and he's certainly not the guy who will win you a Super Bowl, but he threw for 338 yards and three TDs in the loss to the Niners. He's capable of piling on points in garbage time. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 91 h 16 m | Show | |
5* |
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09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers -175 | 20-17 | Loss | -175 | 89 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Chargers. I bet against the Cowboys in their season opener at Tampa, but I was shocked with how well Dak Prescott played. Cowboys fans are full of optimism, but I would caution that the old saying is still true. Good teams find a way to win, and bad teams find a way to lose. The Chargers defense is one of the best in the NFL with Derwin James and Joey Bosa. Dallas is going to be short-handed on defense with DeMarcus Lawrence injured and Randy Gregory in Covid protocols. The Chargers are 3-0 straight up, and 3-0 ATS in the last three head to head meetings. I'll take the home favorite. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-19-21 | Saints v. Panthers +4 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 99 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Carolina. Seasoned sports bettors will tell you that one of the most important things to keep in mind heading into Week 2, is not to overreact to the results in Week 1. Perhaps the most surprising result was the Saints blowout win over Green Bay. Jameis Winston threw five TD passes in the win, and some are saying that his turnover problems might have been solved by laser eye surgery. I will point out that Jameis has a history of making poor decisions, including a pair of high profile sexual assault allegations, and a shoplifting charge for stealing crab legs. As far as I know laser eye surgery doesn't prevent you from making poor decisions, and poor decisions are what leads to turnovers. In his last season in Tampa, he played the Panthers twice. He threw five INTs in those two games. I'll take the Panthers plus the points at home. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-19-21 | 49ers v. Eagles UNDER 50 | 17-11 | Win | 100 | 84 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on Under. I had the under in the Eagles opening game at Atlanta, and here is what I said prior to that game: "The Eagles offense ranked 28th in the NFL in passing last season, averaging just 207.9 yards per game. They come into 2021 hoping that Jalen Hurts can bring their offense back to life, but that sure seems like a longshot. I can remember Hurts as the same quarterback that lost his job as the starter for Alabama. Last season he completed just 52% of his passes for 1,061 yards with six TDs and four INTs while appearing in 15 games. He isn't exactly surrounded by an all star receiving corps and the Eagles don't exactly have the most dynamic stable of running backs either." Now they went on to win 32-6, but that might say more about the Falcons defense than it does about the Eagles offense. The under is 22-8 in Eagles last 30 home games, and they have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 11 overall. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on NYG. The Washington Football Team lost at home to the Chargers in their season opener, and they also lost starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick for an extended period of time. Despite the fact that backup Taylor Heinicke will come in to start versus the Giants, Washington is still a significant favorite. As well as Heinicke has played in his brief stints starting for Washington, he hasn't actually won any games. The Giants looked pretty bad in a home loss to Denver in Week 1, but there were positives to take away from that game. The Giants swept Washington last year, winning 23-20 at Washington, and 20-19 at home. They have actually won five straight versus Washington, and they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog. They have covered in four of their last five at Washington. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-13-21 | Ravens -190 v. Raiders | 27-33 | Loss | -190 | 16 h 3 m | Show | |
5* |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 50.5 | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
5* |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 46.5 | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -103 | 68 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Under. The Rams had the NFL's #1 ranked scoring defense last season, while the Bears ranked #1 in scoring defense back in 2018. We should expect a low score here on Sunday night. The Rams brought in Matt Stafford, and he brings high expectations of an improved offense. The Rams offense has struggled since Todd Gurley left, and their current stable of running backs looks a bit lackluster with Cam Akers out and Darrell Henderson banged up. The Bears are trotting out Andy Dalton at QB in Week 1, and that looks like a recipe for disaster against this Rams pass rush. The under is 13-5 in the Bears last 18 games as a road underdog, and the under is 14-3 in the Rams last 17 home games. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last eight head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-12-21 | Browns +6.5 v. Chiefs | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 1266 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Cleveland. The Browns open as a big underdog on the road at Kansas City, and I gonna make a move here taking the points. Baker Mayfield versus Patrick Mahomes is an intriguing matchup, one that we've seen plenty of times in the past. Most recently in last year's playoffs, when the Chiefs survived with a 22-17 win at Arrowhead. The most memorable head to head meeting came back in 2016 when Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma won 66-59 in historic shootout versus Mahomes and Texas Tech. This is a lot of points for a Chiefs team that is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 overall. The history between these teams shows the road team covering in four straight and the underdog covering in six of the last eight meetings. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-12-21 | Packers -173 v. Saints | 3-38 | Loss | -173 | 64 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Green Bay. Jameis Winston takes over at QB for the Saints, and we will see if he can do a better job protecting the football. He threw for over 5000 yards and 33 TDs in his last year in Tampa, but he also threw a whopping 30 INTs. His receiving corps here in New Orleans without Michael Thomas isn't quite as dynamic as it was in Tampa. The Saints open the season in Jacksonville against the Packers, and Green Bay is expected to be a legit Super Bowl contender. The Packers won in New Orleans last year by a score of 37-30, and Rogers threw for 283 yards and three TDs on 21-of-32 passing. Expect history to repeat itself here in Week 1. GL, Jesse Schule |