Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-14-24 | Bucks v. Magic OVER 214.5 | Top | 88-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Orlando at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have been trending in the wrong direction defensively, allowing three straight and four of their last five opponents to connect on at least 42 field goals. They've also been playing faster down the stretch, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. The Bucks can seemingly bait any opponent into an up-tempo affair, noting that they've allowed 89 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games. Even without Giannis in the lineup, they've been clicking offensively, making good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight contests. The 'over' is 32-21 in the Bucks last 53 games following a road loss including a 10-8 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 49-39 in Orlando's last 88 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 13-7 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-10-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. As is the case with many teams on Wednesday, both the Timberwolves and Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot here. I think this sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between these Northwest Division rivals. Note that the Timberwolves have been the picture of consistency from a defensive standpoint this season. They're not getting run out of the gym by many opponents having held an incredible 17 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Over that stretch, only two opponents made good on more than 42. It's a similar story for the Nuggets but with even more dominance. They've limited seven of their last eight foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. You would have to go back 15 games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to connect on more than 42. The 'under' is 13-10 in Minnesota's last 23 games after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, as is the case here, including a 1-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-21 in the Nuggets last 15 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 9-4 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-24 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 226.5 | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Suns last three games and I look for a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Phoenix has held six straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three in a row to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Suns connected on more than 44 field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. They've held four straight and six of their last seven foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 60-45 in the Clippers last 105 games with the total set in the 220's including a 19-12 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 61-57 in the Suns last 118 contests as a home favorite including an 18-16 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Purdue and Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday. I'm not going to stand in the way of either team's 'under' streaks in this matchup. Purdue has seen the 'under' cash in three straight games while Connecticut rides a six-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Neither team plays all that fast. In fact, the Huskies sit 328th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Purdue checks in 211th. While both teams are ultra-efficient offensively, I generally feel this large stadium venues tend to put a ceiling on shooting abilities. The Huskies actually shot well in their matchup with Alabama on Saturday but Purdue is a considerably tougher defensive opponent. The Boilermakers are going to be up against it here trying to find open looks with UConn ranking fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). I think the Huskies can defend without fouling, something Purdue's previous opponents haven't been able to do effectively. Note that the 'under' is 16-15 in Purdue's last 31 netural court games and 18-12 in UConn's last 30 netural court affairs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-24 | Wolves v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair the last time they met but that was back in November. Phoenix is trending slower right now having gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight and eight of its last 10 games. The Suns have also played some defense lately, limiting seven of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Of course the Timberwolves have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season and they enter this contest having held 11 straight and 13 of their last 14 foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Minnesota's offense exploded last time out but that was against a matador-like Raptors defense. Prior to that, the T'Wolves had been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven straight contests. Note that the 'under' is 50-44 in Minnesota's last 94 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 15-5 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' holds a slight edge in all Suns home games recently, going 67-63 in their last 130 contests in the desert including a 19-18 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-31-24 | Heat v. Wizards UNDER 218 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Washington at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Miami is coming off a stunning 142-point explosion against Portland last time out. Keep in mind, the Heat are just one game removed from a stretch that saw them score 92 points or fewer in three of five games. The Wizards continue to see wild swings offensively. They were held to only 87 points in an 'upset' loss at home against the Pistons last time out. They've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last eight contests. However, on the flip side, Washington has held four of its last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Miami continues to play smothering defense (by today's NBA standards), limiting 10 straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 39-35 in Miami's last 74 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent score 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 10-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-3 in the Heat's last 13 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 4-0 record in that spot this season. The 'under' is 12-8 in Washington's last 20 contests following consecutive home defeats including an 8-4 mark this season. Off an upset loss at home, the Wiz have seen the 'under' go 15-3 in their last 18 games including 3-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-27-24 | Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 206.5 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams found their way 'over' the total in the front half of this home-and-home set on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday in Charlotte. Note that the Cavaliers knocked down 46 field goals in that victory. They simply shot the lights out but were by no means volume-shooters, getting off just 86 field goal attempts. In fact, the Cavs have hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight and eight of their last nine games. They haven't connected on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games since a three-game streak from February 25th to 28th. The Hornets have been far worse offensively in recent weeks. They've made good on 38 or fewer field goals in five straight games. They've have a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting just 82, 79, 84 and 80 field goals over their last four games. While Charlotte is by no means an elite defensive team, it has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities, holding eight of its last 10 foes to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Cavs last 14 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including an 8-0 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-18 in the Cavs last 43 contests following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, including an 8-6 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 22-11 in the Hornets last 33 games as a home underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 14-5 mark this season. Finally, the 'under' is 29-20 in Charlotte's last 49 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent including an 11-8 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-26-24 | Lakers v. Bucks OVER 232 | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks are well-positioned to go off offensively on Tuesday as they wrap up their three-game homestand against an injury-depleted Lakers squad. Milwaukee has connected on 51, 45, 43 and 49 field goals over its last four games. It has also been playing faster, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests. That spells trouble for a matador-like Lakers defense that has allowed more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last eight games, yielding at least 96 field goal attempts in four straight games and 92 or more in 10 of its last 11 contests. I do think the Lakers offense can be brought along for the ride in this game so to speak. Keep in mind, the Bucks have a poor track record as home favorites, going 57-62 ATS in their last 119 games in that role including a 15-18 ATS record this season. Milwaukee has allowed three of its last four opponents to connect on at least 40 field goals. The 'over' is 54-33 in the Lakers last 87 contests as a road underdog including a 13-8 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-25 in the Bucks last 52 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 13-9 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets OVER 213.5 | Top | 103-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Grizzlies are coming off a low-scoring victory in San Antonio on Friday but I look for a different story to unfold as they head to Denver to face the Nuggets on Monday. Note that Memphis has been trending toward higher-scoring affairs on its current road trip having hoisted up 92 and 96 field goal attempts in regulation time in two of three contests. Denver has actually proven vulnerable defensively, or at least more than usual, in recent contests allowing three of its last four foes to connect on at least 42 field goals. Speaking of vulnerability at the defensive end of the floor, Memphis has allowed 44 or more made field goals in regulation time in four of its last seven games. The Nuggets continue to thrive offensively having connected on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 16 games and 45 or more nine times over that stretch. Note that the 'over' is 37-33 in Memphis' last 70 games as a road underdog including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 10-6 in the Nuggets last 16 home games with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points including a 3-2 record in that spot this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-23-24 | Oregon v. Creighton UNDER 146 | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Creighton at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. Oregon's opening round victory over South Carolina didn't have much business getting 'over' the total or certainly not reaching 160 total points. The Ducks actually got off just 47 field goal attempts in that contest while holding South Carolina to 25-of-56 shooting. Oregon quite simply shot the lights out but I think it will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance against Creighton on Saturday. While the Blue Jays are known for their offensive prowess they can play some defense as well. Note that they check in ranked 26th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Both teams rank around the 200 mark in terms of adjusted tempo so neither team plays exceptionally fast. Note that the 'under' is 24-21 in Oregon's last 45 games following an ATS win including an 8-7 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-12 in Creighton's last 27 contests following a win by 15 points or more including a 7-6 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-22-24 | Pacers v. Warriors UNDER 240 | Top | 123-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers aren't the same team they were earlier in the season, playing at a slower pace and doing a much better job defensively. They check in with the 'under' having cashed in 11 of their last 14 games and we'll go that way again as they continue their road trip in San Francisco on Friday. Note that Indiana has held three straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only six of its last 17 opponents have managed to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. The Warriors have shot incredibly well over the last three games but are likely to face some resistance here. On the flip side, they've held five of their last six and 20 of their last 25 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 26-21 in the Pacers last 47 games as a road underdog of six points or less including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-6 in the Warriors last 15 contests following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-21-24 | Akron v. Creighton UNDER 141.5 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Creighton at 1:30 pm et on Thursday. Creighton tends to carry a reputation as an up-tempo offensive team and bettors are generally quick to support the 'over' in games involving the Blue Jays, especially at this time of year. We've already seen this total get bet up a couple of points and I believe it will prove too high. Pittsburgh's PPG Paints Arena last hosted NCAA Tournament first and second round action in 2022. The six games played in this venue totalled an average of only 124.2 total points with just one of those contests surpassing the total we're working with in this particular contest on Thursday. Akron will certainly have its work cut out for it on Thursday but it does likely come in with a gameplan in mind and that's slowing this game to a crawl. Note that the Zips rank 268th in the country (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. They're also inside the top-100 in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. Considering Akron boasts the 162nd ranked offense (in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency) it doesn't figure to be interested in giving Creighton (and its 12th-ranked offense) any more possessions than it has to. Of note, the Blue Jays actually rank just outside the top-200 in adjusted tempo so it's not as if they're playing at a frenetic pace this season. Yes, they've been ultra-efficient but I do think playing at a larger venue like the one in Pittsburgh serves as an equalizer in a sense. The 'under' is 21-17 in Akron's last 38 games with the total set in the 140's including a 12-5 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 27-13 in the Zips last 40 contests played on a neutral court as an underdog including a perfect 3-0 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-18 in Creighton's last 47 postseason tournament games including 16-9 in its last 25 NCAA Tournament contests. Take the under (10*). |
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03-20-24 | VCU v. Villanova UNDER 131 | Top | 70-61 | Push | 0 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between VCU and Villanova at 9 pm et on Wednesday. This game is flashing 'under' as two teams that are obviously disappointed to not be playing in the Big Dance match up in NIT action on Wednesday night in Villanova. VCU lost in a slugfest in the Atlantic-10 Championship against Duquesne. The Rams rank outside the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency and 302nd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Where VCU shines of course is at the defensive end of the floor, sitting 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. This is a matchup it figures to handle against a Villanova offense that has disappointed, ranking 84th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 350th in adjusted tempo. Only 12 Division I teams have played at a slower pace this season. The Wildcats have been even better than the Rams defensively this season, ranking 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. While there's always the chance we see a late scoring flurry in a game in this pointspread range, I'm willing to take my chances with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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03-16-24 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 237 | Top | 128-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Steph Curry is expected to return for the Warriors on Saturday and they could use the offensive boost as they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last 11 games. They'll run into a Lakers team that has shown signs of life defensively recently, limiting three straight and four of their last five foes to 46 or fewer made field goals (that's actually progress given the way they had been playing). While the Lakers have been shooting well themselves, they're playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Meanwhile, Golden State has limited the opposition to 44 or fewer made field goals in six of its last eight games. Note that the 'under' is 27-16 in Golden State's last 43 games played on two days' rest including a 6-3 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-17 in the Lakers last 37 contests played in the same situation including a 7-4 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-13-24 | Nets v. Magic UNDER 206 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This game pits two teams that have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately. The Nets have been held to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time they connected on more than 42 field goals. In fact, they've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in 14 of their last 17 games. They don't figure to get any sort of break here as the Magic, while struggling to find wins lately, have continued to play tough defense. Orlando checks in having held an incredible seven straight foes to 40 or fewer made field goals and 10 of its last 11 to 41 or fewer. The Magic have allowed more than 80 field goal attempts just twice in their last seven contests. On the flip side, Orlando has knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in 10 straight and 12 of its last 13 games overall. Last time out the Magic broke a streak of six straight games in which they had hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts. The 'under' is 66-45 in Brooklyn's last 111 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 21-12 record in that situation this season. The Nets have also seen the 'under' go 16-10 in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road win including a 3-1 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-5 in the Magic's last 14 contests with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points including a perfect 3-0 record this season. Finally, the 'under' is 44-35 in Orlando's last 79 games following consecutive losses including an 8-4 mark this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-24 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's UNDER 139.5 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and St. Mary's at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry series going back to last year's WCC Tournament championship game. I expect more of the same on Tuesday. We know what St. Mary's approach to this game will be. The Gaels will look to slow the pace to a crawl, noting that they rank 358th (out of 362 Division I teams) in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. St. Mary's enters this contest having held 25 of its last 29 opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. Gonzaga enters on an offensive tear but it's not as if the Bulldogs are really pushing the pace. They've gotten off 61 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games including 58 against St. Mary's on March 2nd. Note that the 'under' is 7-5 with Gonzaga coming off an 'over' result this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-4 in St. Mary's last 14 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-10-24 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 229 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive 'under' results but that's not of major concern noting they've had five previous 'under' streaks last longer. While Miami has dropped back-to-back games it remains in excellent form defensively. The Heat have held an incredible 15 of their last 16 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in having knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in three straight and six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Miami isn't likely to push the pace, even against a matador-like Wizards defense. the Heat have hoisted up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 straight and 19 of their last 22 games. They've connected on more than 42 field goals just once in their last six contests. Note that the 'under' is 45-38 in Washington's last 83 games played with double-revenge including a 17-15 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-24 in Miami's last 51 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-08-24 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts UNDER 153.5 | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Friday. I think 'over' bettors may be trying to fit a square peg into a round hole in this particular matchup on Friday. While both teams have struggled defensively all season long, I'm not sure either team is capable of taking advantage offensively. South Dakota has drawn every bit of efficiency out of its offense down the stretch, connecting on 27 or more field goals in eight of its last nine games but it is playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games. It runs into an Oral Roberts squad that did play some of its best defensive basketball of the season down the stretch, limiting four of its last five foes to 26 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Golden Eagles allowed an opponent to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. In two regular season meetings we saw both teams hoist up at least 60 field goal attempts in both matchups yet those two games stayed 'under' the total. The 'under' is 26-20 in South Dakota's last 46 tournament games. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 43-32 in Oral Roberts last 75 tournament contests including a 6-2 mark over the last three seasons. Additionally, the 'under' is 28-13 ATS in the Golden Eagles last 41 games following an ATS loss, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-07-24 | Heat v. Mavs UNDER 231.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two games while the Mavericks are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Pacers two nights ago. I expect a different story to unfold as these non-conference foes match up on Thursday in Dallas. Miami has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 42 made field goals or less. In fact, the Heat have limited three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 successful field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off 90 or more field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Heat have connected on at least 46 field goals just twice since December 6th. They've gone eight straight games without hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts. We know what the Mavs are all about and that's offense. With that said, they've made good on 45 of fewer field goals in three straight and five of their last seven contests. On the flip side, Dallas has struggled defensively this season. However, it has generally bounced back following exceptionally poor performances and that's the situation it is in on Thursday after allowing Indiana to make good on 50 field goals last time out. On five previous occasions this season, the Mavs have yielded at least 50 made field goals and in their next contest they've held the opposition to an average of just 43.6 with the 'under' going 3-2. Note that the 'under' is 30-21 in the Heat's last 51 road games with the total set at 220 points or higher and 19-14 in their last 33 contests following consecutive home wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 65-54 with the Mavs playing at home and 9-7 in their last 16 contests after allowing 135 points or more in their previous game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-06-24 | Boston College v. Miami-FL OVER 151.5 | Top | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Miami at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Miami has inexplicably been idle since a week ago Monday, when it dropped a 75-71 decision on the road against North Carolina - its seventh straight defeat. Boston College enters on the heels of four straight losses but it has been making 'over' bettors happy with each of its last six contests sailing 'over' the total. I look for more of the same on Wednesday. While the Miami offense has struggled lately, it does continue to push the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games. The Hurricanes rank 112th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom this season. Going up against Boston College's matador-like defense should serve Miami well in this spot. The Eagles have allowed eight of their last nine opponents to make good on at least 27 field goals. Boston College ranks 173rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, not good for a Power-5 program. On the flip side, the Eagles have been fairly consistent offensively, making good on 25 or more field goals in five of their last six games with a low-water mark of 24 made field goals over their last nine contests. Miami, like Boston College, has struggled defensively allowing its last four opponents to connect on 28, 28, 30 and 27 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 19-12 in Boston College's last 31 games as a road underdog and 16-6 in its last 22 contests when coming off a game that totalled 155 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-15 in Miami's last 42 games as a home favorite and 7-5 in its last 12 contests following a road loss in-conference. Take the over (10*). |
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03-02-24 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 228.5 | Top | 118-109 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. |
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03-02-24 | NC State v. North Carolina OVER 153.5 | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina State and North Carolina at 4 pm et on Saturday. Including the first meeting this season we've now seen three straight matchups in this rivalry stay 'under' the total. Going back to the turn of the century we've seen a four-game 'under' streak in this series only once - that coming back in 2017. I'm anticipating a considerably higher-scoring affair on Saturday. The Wolfpack were not playing well offensively the last time these two teams matched up. In fact, N.C. State was mired in a shooting slump that saw it connect on fewer than 20 field goals in two of three games. It's a much different story this time around. N.C. State has connected on 26 or more field goals in eight straight games. There's reason to believe the Wolfpack will be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities in this contest as North Carolina has allowed seven of its last eight foes to hoist up more than 60 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Wolfpack have been getting boat raced defensively in recent weeks. They've allowed 29, 27, 30, 25 and 37 made field goals over their last five contests. North Carolina checks in top-25 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 38th in adjusted tempo, both according to KenPom. Note that the 'over' is 6-1 in N.C. State's last seven games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 30-23 in the Wolfpack's last 53 contests following an ATS defeat. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 62-47 in North Carolina's last 109 games following a win by six points or less including a 5-3 record in that situation over the last three seasons. The 'over' is also 26-20 in the Tar Heels last 46 games following an ATS loss including a 6-4 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-01-24 | Fresno State v. Nevada UNDER 137.5 | Top | 66-74 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and Nevada at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Fresno State's most recent game went 'over' the total but that was only thanks to overtime. The Bulldogs haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' since a five-game streak from January 16th to 30th. Note that they held an up-tempo Utah State team to just 47 field goal attempts in regulation time last time out. In fact, they've limited three of their last four opponents to 51 or fewer field goal attempts. While the Aggies did get their fair share of opportunities at the free throw line in Wednesday's contest, Fresno State is actually allowing just 16 free throw attempts per game this season so it's not really a recurring theme. While the Bulldogs did get loose a bit offensively against Utah State, it faces a tougher challenge on Friday with Nevada ranked 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 245th in adjusted tempo this season (both according to KenPom). The Wolf Pack have held seven of their last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Fresno State has knocked down just 23 field goals per game on the road this season. As I mentioned, Nevada's preferred pace is slow, noting that it hasn't hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in a game since February 2nd against a matador-like defense in San Jose State. The 'under' is 10-8 in Fresno State's last 18 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-2 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-18 in Nevada's last 41 contests following an 'over' result including a 7-3 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also a long-term 50-39 in Nevada's last 89 games after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games. Take the under (10*). |
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02-28-24 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 235.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Opponents are walking all over the Lakers right now, getting off 93 or more field goal attempts in each of their last five and 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Clippers should be salivating at the opportunity for an offensive breakout here after being held to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. Paul George won't be in the lineup for the Clips on Wednesday but I still expect them to thrive offensively against a Lakers squad that has been lit up for 44 or more made field goals in 12 of its last 15 games. On the flip side, the Lakers have connected on more than 40 field goals in eight straight games and 47 or more in five of those contests. The Clippers have surprisingly been matador-like defensively in recent weeks, allowing four straight and 12 of their last 16 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 35-17 in the Lakers last 52 road games with the total set at 230 points or higher including a crisp 15-3 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 32-25 in the Clippers last 57 contests following an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-1 record in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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02-27-24 | Nevada v. Colorado State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and Colorado State at 11:30 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a considerably higher posted total the last time these two teams met on January 24th. That game ultimately stayed 'under' that number but did go higher than the total we're working with on Tuesday. I still don't feel the oddsmakers have made enough of an adjustment. Nevada saw its last game go 'over' the total thanks to an offensive outburst against a miserable San Jose State defense. Note that the Wolf Pack are locked-in defensively right now having held three straight and five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. Colorado State doesn't figure to push the pace on Nevada, noting that the Rams rank 271st in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Speaking of being locked-in defensively, the Rams have climbed into the top-25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom) thanks to a stretch that has seen them limit seven straight foes to 24 or fewer made field goals. Nevada checks in just 241st in adjusted tempo and has hoisted up 58 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight contests, reaching 52 or less in half of those games. Note that the 'under' is 6-1 in Nevada's last seven games as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points including a 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 9-5 in the Wolf Pack's last 14 contests following a double-digit win over a conference foe including a 5-1 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-10 in Colorado State's last 33 games with the total set in the 130's, as is the case here at the time of writing. The Rams have also seen the 'under' go 14-5 in their last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more including a 5-2 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-26-24 | Pistons v. Knicks UNDER 224 | Top | 111-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Pistons have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last five games while the Knicks ride a two-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Both teams are coming off losses on Saturday with Detroit falling on a last-second shot against Orlando and New York suffering a blowout loss at the hands of Boston. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Monday at the Garden. Detroit has shot about as well as you could expect in two games since the All-Star break, making good on 47 and 43 field goals in losses against the Pacers and Magic. It still scored 'only' 115 and 109 points in those two contests. Note that the Pistons haven't produced 109 or more points in three straight games since January 28th to February 2nd. On the flip side, Detroit has limited five straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Knicks don't figure to test that streak, noting that they've hoisted up just 84, 79 and 82 field goal attempts in their last three contests. In fact, they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 22 of their last 28 games. On the flip side, the Knicks have held an incredible eight straight opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. While the opposition has shot well against New York in recent weeks, I believe Detroit is better-suited for volume-shooting success but I don't see it accomplishing that against the slow-paced Knicks on Monday. Note that the 'under' is 26-20 in the Pistons last 46 games following five straight 'under' results and 10-7 in their last 17 contests after suffering a loss by three points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 40-24 in New York's last 64 games following consecutive 'under' results including a 14-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-22 in the Knicks last 47 contests following a double-digit loss including a 5-4 record in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-24-24 | Grambling State v. Southern UNDER 133 | Top | 63-57 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
SWAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Grambling and Southern at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams met back on January 20th and combined to score 141 points in a double-digit Grambling victory. I expect a lower-scoring affair in Saturday's rematch. Note that Grambling has quietly held 11 of its last 13 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. The Tigers rank 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Southern has gotten off 54 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. The Jaguars have made good on 23 or fewer field goals in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, they've arguably been even better than the Tigers defensively in recent weeks. Southern has limited an incredible nine straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back 13 games to find the last time a Southern opponent hoisted up more than 53 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 8-4 in Grambling's last 12 road games with the total set between 130 and 139.5 points including a perfect 4-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-10 in Southern's last 25 home games including a perfect 7-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-24 | Bucks v. Wolves UNDER 225.5 | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Minnesota at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is undoubtedly a game the Bucks have had circled on their calendar since getting throttled 129-105 on their home floor on February 8th. The Timberwolves shot the lights out in that game but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here. While the Bucks have struggled to find the win column lately, they've continued to do a good job of limiting opposing offenses, holding six of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Minnesota isn't a team that's going to push the pace on them, noting the T'Wolves have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 18 games. On the flip side, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team that was as locked-in defensively as the T'Wolves prior to the All-Star break. They enter this game having limited four straight and an incredible 19 of their last 25 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In fact, Minnesota is allowing just 37 made field goals per contest at home this season. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series but we haven't seen three straight 'over' results since way back in 2006. The 'under' is 28-14 in Milwaukee's last 42 games as a road underdog and 12-7 in its last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 32-19 in the T'Wolves last 51 home contests with the total set between 220 and 229.5 and 7-3 in their last 10 games played on three or more days' rest. Take the under (10*). |
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02-22-24 | Washington State v. Arizona UNDER 151 | Top | 77-74 | Push | 0 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Arizona at 11 pm et on Thursday. Washington State has broken into the top-25 for the first time in an eternity and now it draws a difficult road test against a revenge-minded Arizona squad in Tucson on Thursday. The first meeting between these teams ended 73-70 in favor of the Cougars, cruising 'under' the total. In fact, the 'under' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series. Washington State enters this game locked-in defensively having held four straight and five of its last six opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Note that it limited Arizona to just 25 made field goals despite yielding 72 field goal attempts back on January 13th. The Wildcats are on a tear offensively but they've also faced mostly up-tempo opponents over the last few weeks. Note that Washington State ranks 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and will almost certainly look to slow this game down and effectively shorten proceedings as a double-digit underdog on Thursday. While Arizona is known for its offensive prowess, it can play some defense as well, checking in ranked 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Wildcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Washington State has made good on 25 or fewer field goals in three of its last four contests. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 41-19 with the Cougars coming off consecutive wins by 10 points or more, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 18-12 in their last 30 games as an underdog including a 5-2 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-7 in Arizona's last 16 games following three straight 'over' results, including 2-0 in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-5 in the Wildcats last 15 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including 1-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-22-24 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 229.5 | Top | 105-127 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams went into the All-Star break off 'over' results but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up for the fourth time this season on Thursday in New Orleans. Note that the three previous meetings in this series this season totalled just 205, 210 and 209 points. The Rockets had a recent stretch where they connected on 50 or more field goals in six of 11 games but have since cooled off, making good on 44 or fewer field goals in four straight contests prior to the break. Defensively, Houston has quietly been locked-in, limiting nine of its last 11 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While the Rockets have continued to give up their share of scoring opportunities, the Pelicans don't figure to push the pace, noting that New Orleans has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games. The Pelicans did make good on 50 field goals in their most recent game against the lowly Wizards but have been held to 46 or fewer made field goals in 13 of their last 16 games overall. Like the Rockets, the Pelicans have been terrific defensively in recent weeks, holding seven of their last nine foes to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and a rock-steady 27 of their last 32 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 51-44 in the Rockets last 95 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent including a 10-4 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 60-40 in New Orleans' last 100 contests following an 'over' result including 19-6 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-21-24 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 71-83 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The first matchup between these rivals was a high-scoring barn-burner with the Rebels prevailing 86-82 on their home floor back in late January. I expect a much different game to play out in Wednesday's rematch. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series. We haven't seen three straight matchups between these two teams go 'over' the total since 2019-20 and prior to that 2005-06. Ole Miss snapped its three-game losing streak with a narrow win over Missouri last time out. You could see the Rebels shifting their focus to the defensive end of the floor as that losing skid grew. They enter this contest having held their last two opponents to just 54 and 49 field goal attempts. Keep in mind, Ole Miss ranks 244th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Rebels have played considerably faster from an offensive standpoint at home this season, averaging two fewer made field goals on two fewer field goal attempts compared to their season average on the road. Mississippi State has hoisted up fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games, making good on 25 or fewer field goals in four of those contests. Like the Rebels, the Bulldogs are showing signs of locking in defensively, limiting their last three foes to 57, 47 and 55 field goal attempts and holding three straight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 9-3 in Ole Miss' last 12 games following a win in-conference and 41-33 in its last 74 contests after allowing 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-7 in Mississippi State's last 23 games following three straight victories. Take the under (10*). |
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02-18-24 | Canisius v. Siena OVER 137.5 | Top | 73-64 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Canisius and Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday. We've seen consecutive 'under' results in this series and that's notable as we haven't witnessed a streak of three straight meetings between these two teams going 'under' the total since an extended stretch of low-scoring matchups from 2005-08. Canisius can drag even the worst of opponents into a high-scoring affair, noting the Golden Griffins have allowed 28 or more made field goals in five straight games. They've also allowed eight of their last 11 opponents to get off at least 60 field goal attempts. In a similar vein, Siena has allowed six of its last 10 foes to hoist up at least 66 field goal attempts. Canisius is waiting for an opportunity to get out and run after getting bogged down in its last two games against Iona and Marist. Note that the Golden Griffins actually rank a respectable 130th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 130 total points but that game featured just eight combined made three-pointers. Note that these two teams average 13 combined made threes per game this season. The 'over' is 28-18 in Canisius' last 46 road games with the total set between 135 and 139.5, as is the case here at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 4-1 in Siena's last five contests as a home underdog of three points or less and 14-12 in its last 26 contests when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Take the over (10*). |
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02-17-24 | Pacific v. Gonzaga UNDER 152.5 | Top | 76-102 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
WCC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pacific and Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Saturday. Pacific was far more competitive than expected in an 82-73 home loss against Gonzaga last month. While this game figures to be more lopsided, I also believe it will be lower-scoring. The Bulldogs used up a lot of what they had in the tank in Thursday's eventual rout of Loyola Marymount. That was a one-point game at halftime before Gonzaga poured it on in the second half. Note that the Bulldogs, while known for their offensive prowess, have also played some defense lately, holding nine straight opponents to 28 or fewer made field goals. Pacific doesn't figure to approach that number on Saturday, noting the Tigers have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in eight of their last nine games. In fact, Pacific has gotten off 53 or fewer field goal attempts in six of its last eight contests. The 'over' has cashed in two straight meetings between these teams but we haven't seen three consecutive 'over' results in series history (going back 20 all-time meetings since 2012). Note that the 'under' is 20-16 in Pacific's last 36 games as a road underdog and 13-5 in its last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-4 in Gonzaga's last 15 games following a road win over a conference foe and 18-13 in its last 31 contests following an ATS victory as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-16-24 | Yale v. Pennsylvania OVER 137.5 | Top | 76-62 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Yale and Pennsylvania at 7 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met on Yale's campus on February 3rd with the Bulldogs prevailing by a 74-58 score in a game that stayed 'under' the total. I'm anticipating a considerably higher-scoring affair in Friday's rematch in Pennsylvania. Note that Penn connected on just 20 field goals in that previous matchup. The Quakers have proven to be a much better offensive team at home this season where they average 29 made field goals per contest. Yale has been fairly solid defensively but does check in having allowed 23 or more made field goals in six of its last eight games to at least leave the door cracked for the Penn offense, which is objectively better than its defense this season (the Quakers rank 154th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 264th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom). Note that Penn has connected on more than 20 field goals in 19 of 22 games this season so I'm willing to chalk up that ugly performance against Yale as an outlier. Defensively, the Quakers have allowed 10 of their last 12 opponents to knock down at least 26 field goals with half of those foes making good on at least 29. Yale enters this game on a serious tear offensively having connected on 33, 31, 34, 31, 27, 25, 28 and 28 field goals over its last eight contests. Note that the 'over' is 5-2 in the Bulldogs last seven games following three straight home wins and 12-7 in their last 19 contests played on five or six days' rest, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 40-29 in Penn's last 69 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored less than 60 points and 22-19 in its last 41 contests off an ATS win but SU loss. Take the over (10*). |
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02-14-24 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame UNDER 133 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Notre Dame at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Notre Dame is coming off a stunning 74-66 upset win over Virginia Tech on Saturday marking the first time it scored more than 61 points since a 75-68 victory at Georgia Tech on January 9th. I'm not convinced the Irish will enjoy similar offensive success here, noting they still rank 336th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) and just inside the top-300 in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency. Prior to Saturday's contest Notre Dame had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in 10 straight games. Georgia Tech is by no means an elite defensive team but despite allowing six of its last 10 opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts it yielded 30 or more made field goals just once over that stretch. On the flip side, the Yellow Jackets have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven straight games. The Irish can play some defensive having limited eight straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. The first meeting between these two teams this season did reach 143 total points but both teams played at a faster pace than expected and shot better than their season average from beyond the arc in that contest. Note that the 'under' is 12-5 in Georgia Tech's last 17 games when seeking revenge for a loss where its opponent scored 75 points or more and 8-1 in its last nine contests following consecutive double-digit losses. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 25-21 in Notre Dame's last 46 home games and 9-3 in its last 12 contests following an upset victory. Take the under (10*). |
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02-12-24 | Wolves v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 121-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. I think this game has the potential to have an 'old school' feel as the Timberwolves take the court for the first time since last Thursday while the Clippers wrap up a three-game homestand that has seen them go 0-2 ATS so far. Minnesota's most recent game found its way 'over' the total thanks to a lights out shooting performance in Milwaukee. The pace wasn't necessarily there as the T'Wolves hoisted up 87 field goal attempts in a 129-105 rout. Keep in mind, Minnesota has gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in 11 of its last 12 games and averages just 86 per game on the road this season. Also note that the T'Wolves have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Minnesota is locked-in defensively having held eight of its last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals in regulation time. The Clippers have had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down lately. They've gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. You would have to go back six contests to find the last time they hoisted up more than 89 field goal attempts. They've been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in four of their last seven games. Los Angeles is coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against Detroit on Saturday. Note that the Clippers have allowed three of their last four foes to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. I do think the fact that Minnesota hasn't played since Thursday and that it plays at a relatively slow pace works in Los Angeles' favor here. Keep in mind, the Clips have limited the opposition to just 41 made field goals per game at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 6-3 in Minnesota's last nine games played on three or more days' rest and 24-21 in its last 45 contests following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-15 in Los Angeles' last 35 games following a victory by six points or less and 29-20 in its last 49 home games with the total set between 220 and 229.5 points, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*). |
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02-11-24 | Bowling Green v. UL - Lafayette OVER 151 | Top | 60-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Louisiana-Lafayette at 3 pm et on Sunday. It's a rare non-conference matchup in February as Bowling Green travels to face Louisiana on Sunday afternoon. The Falcons have quietly reeled off 11 straight 'over' results. While getting out of the MAC for a game may serve as a 'catalyst for change' on most occasions, I'm not convinced that's the case here. Louisiana is coming off consecutive 'under' results but hasn't seen three straight games stay 'under' the total all season. The Ragin' Cajuns don't mind getting out and running and they'll certainly get their opportunity to do so here as the Falcons have allowed four of their last six opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. Worse still, Bowling Green has allowed 11 of its last 14 foes to connect on at least 28 field goals. Louisiana has gotten bogged down at times against slow-paced Sun Belt Conference teams but still checks in having made good on 26 or more field goals in seven of its last 10 contests. Of course we'll need Bowling Green to hold up its end of the bargain offensively to help this total along as well. The Falcons have hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in 12 of their last 16 games. They enter on a tear having knocked down at least 29 field goals in three of their last four contests. Note that the 'over' is 24-11 in Bowling Green's last 35 games following a win. The 'over' is also 21-13 ATS in Louisiana's last 34 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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02-10-24 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma UNDER 139.5 | Top | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma at 7 pm et on Saturday. Oklahoma State enters this game off consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold as the Cowboys travel to Stillwater for a showdown with the rival Sooners on Saturday. The Cowboys have been positively dreadful offensively for the most part over the last month or so, connecting on 22 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight games. They'll run into the 16th ranked defense in the country (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency) according to KenPom on Saturday. The Sooners have limited three straight and five of their last seven foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. While Oklahoma's defense has been stout, it hasn't been quite as consistent offensively, making good on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of its last eight contests. While the Oklahoma State defense is not elite by any means, I do think it is better than it has shown lately, most recently getting lit up by Houston in a 'wrong place at the wrong time situation' after the Cougars dropped a tough one on the road against Kansas three days earlier. The Cowboys have held 15 of 23 opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts this season. Note that the 'under' is 6-1 in Oklahoma State's last seven games as a double-digit road underdog and 18-16 in its last 34 games following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has seen the 'under' go 12-9 in its last 22 games as a double-digit home favorite and 14-12 in its last 26 contests following a double-digit home victory, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 242.5 | Top | 127-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met back on January 10th in Atlanta and produced a total of 271 points (aided by an overtime period). I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair in Friday's rematch. The Hawks are on a scoring tear right now. They've connected on 51, 44, 53, 49, 55 (overtime game against Golden State), 51 and 43 field goals over their last seven contests. They've also hoisted up at least 93 field goal attempts in 10 straight games. The 76ers don't figure to stand in their way on Friday. Philadelphia has sagged defensively in the absence of Joel Embiid, allowing six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to knock down at least 42 field goals. On the flip side, I do think it's only a matter of time before the Sixers shots start falling. They've gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts in four straight games, making good on 47, 44, 40 and 41 over that stretch. The door is wide open for a breakout performance here, noting that Atlanta has allowed five straight and seven of its last eight opponents to connect on at least 47 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 22-18 in the Hawks last 40 games as a road favorite. The 'over' is also 16-11 in the Sixers last 27 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher. Take the over (10*). |
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02-05-24 | Kings v. Cavs UNDER 235.5 | Top | 110-136 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Sacramento has posted consecutive 'over' results as it wraps up its long seven-game road trip on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Kings have been ultra-efficient offensively but it's not as if they've been playing at a break-neck pace. They check in having connected on 43 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. Here they'll run into a Cavaliers squad that is locked-in defensively and has been for weeks. Cleveland has held an incredible nine of its last 11 opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Cavs have certainly been good but aren't exactly blowing the doors off the opposition, making good on 46 or fewer field goals in 11 of their last 13 contests. The Kings, while not known for their defensive prowess, have been terrific at that end of the floor as well, limiting four of their last five foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 38-25 in the Kings last 63 games as a road underdog and 21-12 in their last 33 contests as a road underdog of six points or less. The 'under' is also a modest 26-24 in their last 50 games after consecutive 'over' results. Meanwhile, the Cavs have seen the 'under' go 12-6 in their last 18 contests with the total set at 230 points or higher. The 'under' is also 19-12 in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-05-24 | Miami-FL v. Virginia UNDER 132 | Top | 38-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams have been on a bit of a tear (relatively speaking) offensively in recent weeks but I look for Monday's matchup to take on more of a defensive flavor. Miami delivered an 82-74 home win over Virginia Tech on Saturday. While the Hurricanes have connected on 24 or more field goals in eight straight games, they haven't knocked down 30 or more field goals since back on January 6th against Wake Forest. They obviously draw a tough challenge here as Virginia ranks 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Cavaliers have held six straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last seven foes to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, Virginia has made good on more than 27 field goals just once in its last eight contests. Note that the 'under' is 12-6 in Miami's last 18 games as a road underdog and 11-7 in its last 18 games following a home win in-conference. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-6 in Virginia's last 17 games following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a perfect 7-0 in the Cavaliers last seven games following a win by three points or less in-conference. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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02-03-24 | California v. Arizona State OVER 144.5 | Top | 81-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between California and Arizona State at 3 pm et on Saturday. California ran into a buzz saw in Arizona on Thursday, dropping a 91-65 decision. That game still managed to stay 'under' the total - the Bears second straight 'under' result. Meanwhile, Arizona State checks in off a relatively low-scoring home defeat at the hands of Stanford on Thursday. The Sun Devils have struggled to find their shooting legs in recent games but should be afforded plenty of opportunities against a very forgiving Cal defense on Saturday. Note that the Bears have allowed eight of their last 10 opponents to knock down 25 or more field goals. They've also yielded 58 or more field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Cal has at least been consistent offensively, connecting on 25 or more field goals in six straight games entering Saturday's action. The Sun Devils rank an impressive 44th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom but that's largely based on early season returns. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to make good on 25 or more field goals. Note that the pace was there in the first meeting between these two teams this season (both hoisted up 60+ field goal attempts) but we saw just 48 combined made field goals in a game that cruised 'under' the total with 140 points. Note that the 'over' is 14-9 in Cal's last 23 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. The 'over' is also 13-11 in the Bears last 24 contests following a road loss. Arizona State has seen the 'over' go 6-4 in its last 10 games following a home loss in-conference and 7-4 in its last 11 home contests with the total set between 140 and 149.5 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-24 | San Jose State v. Nevada OVER 142 | Top | 60-90 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose State and Nevada at 11 pm et on Friday. San Jose State sits tied for last place in the Mountain West Conference with just one win in eight games this season. Meanwhile, Nevada is 3-4 and staring up at seven other teams in the conference. Needless to say, I don't expect either team to play lock-down defense on Friday night in Reno. Note that San Jose State is on an incredible run of defensive futility as it has allowed five straight opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field with its last four foes knocking down 33, 34, 30 and 30 field goals. Nevada should be in a foul mood after connecting on just 19 field goals in a blowout loss at New Mexico last time out. Note that the Wolf Pack had made good on 35 and 39 field goals in their two previous contests. They've gotten bogged down by the better teams they've faced in conference play but San Jose State certainly doesn't fall into that category. The question is whether the Spartans can produce enough offense to help this total along. I'm confident they can, noting they've actually been reasonably consistent offensively, making good on 24 or more field goals in 11 of their last 12 games. In fact, they rank a respectable 128th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season. San Jose state played quite slow early in the season but has picked up the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in six of its last 12 games. Note that the 'over' is 10-6 in the Spartans last 16 games as a double-digit road underdog and 8-3 in their last 11 contests following consecutive 'under' results. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 12-10 in Nevada's last 22 games following a loss in-conference and a long-term 21-8 in its last 29 contests after scoring 55 points or less in its previous game. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-24 | Clippers v. Pistons OVER 237.5 | Top | 136-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Clippers may be known for their defensive prowess but it's been their offense that has paced them to 30+ wins this season. Los Angeles enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 45 or more field goals in eight of their last 11 games. The Clips are also playing at a faster pace than we've been accustomed to seeing, hoisting up 95 or more field goal attempts in three of the first four games on their current road trip. They should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities on Friday as the Pistons have allowed 21 of their last 28 opponents to connect on at least 44 field goals. That's not to mention the fact that eight of their last 11 foes have gotten off 90+ field goal attempts. The question is whether Detroit can produce enough to help this total along. I believe it can. Note that the Pistons have made good on 43 or more field goals in eight of their last 10 games. They're catching the Clips at the right time as they've allowed six of their last seven foes to knock down at least 42 field goals and haven't exactly been smothering in nature, giving up 90+ field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. Note that the 'over' is 33-25 in the Clippers last 58 games following a double-digit win, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 27-22 in Detroit's last 49 contests after posting consecutive ATS victories. Take the over (10*). |
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01-30-24 | Jazz v. Knicks UNDER 231.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and New York at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' is an incredible 13-2 in the Knicks last 15 games and I look for that trend to continue as they return home to host the Jazz on Tuesday. Utah got stomped by the Nets in Brooklyn last night. The Jazz are by no means playing good defensive basketball right now but I do think they get a bit of a reprieve in this back-to-back spot. Note that New York, while red hot off seven straight wins, has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in 16 of its last 18 games. It doesn't generally look to push the pace having hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 15 straight games entering Tuesday's contest. On the flip side, the Knicks are as locked-in defensively as any team right now having held nine straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Jazz's last 14 games following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 6-1 in Utah's last seven contests after consecutive games totalling 245 points or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-19 in the Knicks last 45 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 7-4 in their last 11 contests after a road win by 20 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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01-30-24 | South Carolina v. Tennessee UNDER 136.5 | Top | 63-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Tennessee at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. South Carolina enters this game having scored more than 70 points in three straight games - all victories in SEC play. It will be hard-pressed to reach that number on Tuesday, however, as it travels to Rocky Top to challenge Tennessee and it's elite defense. The Volunteers check in ranked second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Gamecocks will need to effectively shorten this game by relying on their methodical pace, noting they rank 348th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). South Carolina can hold its own defensively as well as it has limited four straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Gamecocks had a brief two-game outburst but that was against two poor SEC defenses in Arkansas and Kentucky. Last time out they knocked down just 23 field goals in a win over Missouri and they've been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in five of their last seven contests. I mentioned Tennessee's elite defense, it has held 12 straight opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals and nine of its last 11 foes to 23 or less. Note that the 'under' is 7-5 in the Gamecocks last 12 games following three straight ATS victories, including 3-1 in that situation this season. The 'under' is 22-17 in the Vols last 39 games following an ATS loss and 6-3 in their last nine contests after posting three straight wins by double-digits, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-28-24 | Marist v. Canisius UNDER 131.5 | Top | 80-71 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Marist and Canisius at 1 pm et on Sunday. While Marist rides a three-game 'under' streak into this matchup on Sunday, Canisius snapped a two-game 'under' streak with an 'over' result on Friday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair between these two MAAC squads on Sunday afternoon. Marist has dropped the cash in six of its last seven games and that's been more to do with its punchless offense than anything else. The Red Foxes check in ranked 337th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 321st in adjusted tempo, both according to KenPom. They've been held to 25 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last eight contests. While Canisius is certainly no defensive juggernaut, it has held three straight and four of its last five opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. Marist actually sits just outside the top-100 (106th) in adjusted defensive efficiency. Red Foxes' opponents have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down. Marist has limited five straight and nine of its last 10 foes to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Marist allowed more than 24 made field goals. In fact, it has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 24 or less made field goals. The Golden Griffins offense did get loose on Friday but that was against one of the worst defensive teams not just in the MAAC but in the entire country in Manhattan. Prior to that contest, Canisius had been held to 26 or fewer made field goals in four straight games. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 29-18 in Marist's last 47 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The 'under' is also 18-15 in Canisius' last 33 contests following an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). |
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01-27-24 | Kentucky v. Arkansas OVER 164 | Top | 63-57 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kentucky and Arkansas at 6 pm et on Saturday. Arkansas has fallen into a serious shooting slump, connecting on 24 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games entering Saturday's matchup with Kentucky. The good news is, the Wildcats are an NBA team disguised in college basketball uniforms and can drag any opponent into a track meet on any given day. Kentucky has allowed 33, 31, 31 and 29 made field goals over its last four games. The problem for the Razorbacks here isn't likely whether they can score on the Wildcats but whether they can stop them. Kentucky will undoubtedly be in a foul mood after dropping a 79-62 decision at South Carolina earlier this week. Note that the Wildcats have connected on 30 or more field goals in 14 of 18 games this season. It's worth noting that the Hogs had knocked down at least 26 field goals in 10 of their first 13 games before falling into their recent funk. The 'over' is 22-11 in Kentucky's last 33 games following an 'under' result, as is the case here. The Wildcats have also posted a perfect 9-0 'over' mark in their last nine games following a road loss. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 7-3 in the Razorbacks last 10 games following consecutive defeats in-conference. The 'over' is also 6-1 in their last seven contests following a loss by 15 points or more including 2-0 the last two times they've come off a 20+ point setback. Take the over (10*). |
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01-27-24 | Kansas State v. Houston UNDER 128.5 | Top | 52-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas State and Houston at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kansas State was involved in a higher-scoring game than expected against Iowa State on Wednesday. It had little to do with the pace of that contest, however, as the Wildcats hoisted up only 49 field goal attempts while the Cyclones countered with 51. Both teams knocked down an identical 22 field goals. That's about par for the course when it comes to Kansas State. It has limited six of its last seven opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. While Houston boasts its share of offensive talent, the Cougars are still at team that hangs their hat on their defense. Houston checks in having held 18 of 19 opponents to 22 made field goals or fewer. In fact, the Cougars are just one game removed from limiting Central Florida to a ridiculous seven made field goals. Also note that Houston ranks 350th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The Cougars will take what the opposition gives them on offense but in this case that's not likely to be much against a Wildcats squad that is sure to be in a foul mood following Wednesday's loss. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 59-49 with Kansas State coming off a road loss against a conference opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-15 in the Cougars last 38 games following an 'over' result, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-25-24 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 224 | Top | 143-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off a string of relatively low-scoring contests. Boston enters riding a five-game 'under' streak while Miami has seen each of its last seven contests stay 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. The Heat continue to limit opposing offenses although part of that has been as a result of the opposition playing with a considerable lead and controlling the tempo. Boston has been fairly matchup-proof in that regard. The Celtics prefer to push the pace, having hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in 17 of their last 21 games. On the flip side, Boston's opponents have certainly gotten their fair share of scoring opportunities as the C's have allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 15 games. Only twice over the last three seasons has Boston produced five straight 'under' results and on both previous occasions, the 'over' cashed in the next game. Also note that the 'over' is 39-34 in the Celtics last 73 games following a road win, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 40-32 in the Heat's last 72 contests when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. The 'over' is also 3-1 in Miami's last four games after four straight losses. Take the over (10*). |
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01-23-24 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 229.5 | Top | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Lebron James is expected to miss Tuesday's game for the Lakers as they try to secure a third straight win over the rival Clippers this season. While the Lakers have found recent success it hasn't been on the strength of their defensive play. They've allowed eight straight opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes connecting on at least 42 field goals. The Clippers figure to push them here, noting Los Angeles has knocked down 47 or more field goals in four of its last six contests. On the flip side, despite generally limiting the tempo of their opposition, the Clippers have allowed four of their last five opponents to make good on more than 40 field goals. This will undoubtedly be a game the Clips have circled on their calendar not only due to the fact that they've dropped both previous meetings this season but also after they felt they let the Lakers off the hook in the most recent matchup on January 7th. In that contest, the Clips hoisted up 91 field goal attempts but connected on only 36 of them. Incredibly, that's one of only two times they've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in their last 25 contests. Take the over (10*). |
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01-21-24 | Heat v. Magic UNDER 215.5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Orlando at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. If the Magic are going to shake out of their extended funk it's likely going to have to come on the strength of their defense. They've clearly lost their mojo offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. You would have to go back 14 games to find the last time they connected on more than 44 field goals. The good news is, Orlando continues to play tough defense having held seven straight opponents to 43 or fewer field goals. Miami is in a similar situation as it has connected on 41 or fewer field goals in an incredible 11 straight and 15 of its last 16 games. Also in a similar vein to the Magic, the Heat have held four of their last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 21-11 in Orlando's last 32 games following a double-digit home loss, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 11-4 in the Magic's last 15 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation against the Heat on Sunday. Miami has seen the 'under' go 6-2 in its last eight games following an upset loss against a divisional opponent. Take the under (10*). |
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01-19-24 | St. Peter's v. Fairfield UNDER 135.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Peter's and Fairfield at 7 pm et on Friday. Fairfield is riding a six-game 'over' streak entering Friday's matchup against St. Peter's. I believe that streak is in serious jeopardy here, however, as the Peacocks roll into town sporting a top-100 defense (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings) but an exceptionally slow (and reasonably weak) offense. Fairfield's defensive play has been subpar for most of the season but I question whether St. Peter's can take full advantage. The Peacocks did score 81 points in their most recent game but that was against a lifeless Manhattan squad. Note that St. Peter's has been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in seven of its last eight games. On the flip side, it has incredibly held all 14 opponents it has faced this season to 24 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 18-11 in the Peacocks last 29 games following an in-conference victory. The 'under' is also 13-8 in their last 21 contests following a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-4 in the Stags last 17 games following a double-digit win in an underdog role, as is the case here. When that win came on the road, the 'under' has gone a perfect 9-0 over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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01-16-24 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson OVER 150.5 | Top | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Tech and Clemson at 9 pm et on Tuesday. This one sets up as a high-scoring affair between two struggling ACC squads on Tuesday. Georgia Tech has lost five straight games, going 1-4 ATS over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets do play an entertaining brand of basketball if nothing else having knocked down 25 or more field goals in seven of their last eight contests. The problem is they've operated a matador-like defense, allowing their four ACC foes to date to connect on 31, 35, 24 and 27 field goals. They were fortunate in the latter two games as both Notre Dame and Duke shot poorly but actually got into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts. In fact, four straight and 12 of Georgia Tech's last 15 opponents have hoisted up at least 60 field goal attempts. Clemson snapped a three-game losing streak with an 89-78 win over Boston College last time out. The Tigers have been outstanding offensively, knocking down 30 or more field goals in five of their last seven games. On the flip side, they've allowed three of their four ACC opponents to make good on 30 or more field goals. Note that the 'over' is 17-13 in the Yellow Jackets last 30 games following an in-conference loss. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 24-19 in Clemson's last 43 contests off an ATS victory. Take the over (10*). |
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01-16-24 | Baylor v. Kansas State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Kansas State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Kansas State faces a tall task as it looks to avoid a two-game skid when it hosts Baylor on Tuesday. The Bears have been ultra-efficient offensively this season, ranking fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom). I do question whether we'll see Baylor thrive in this particular matchup, however, noting that Kansas State has held four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals and seven of its last nine foes to 23 or less. In fact, the Wildcats check in 31st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Neither team really pushes the pace with the Bears ranking 219th and the Wildcats' 267th in adjusted tempo. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in Baylor's last 14 games following a win by six points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-19 in Kansas State's last 46 contests off an ATS win but SU loss as an underdog. Take the under (10*). |
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01-12-24 | Quinnipiac v. Marist UNDER 139.5 | Top | 66-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Quinnipiac and Marist at 7 pm et on Friday. This game features a contrast in styles as Quinnipiac ranks 30th in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Marist checks in 303rd in that same category. It won't be easy for the Bobcats to bait the Red Foxes into an up-and-down affair here, however, noting that Marist has hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts just twice this season. Meanwhile, the Red Foxes have held the opposition to just 17, 21, 16 and 19 made field goals in their four home games this season. I do think Marist can control the tempo here as a short home favorite. Note that the Red Foxes are coming off three straight losses while Quinnipiac made the most of its two MAAC home games last weekend, going 2-0. While the Bobcats have proven rather vulnerable defensively this season, they should benefit from facing Marist here. The Red Foxes have knocked down more than 23 field goals just twice in their last seven contests. The 'under' is 16-10 in the Bobcats last 26 games following consecutive wins. The 'under' is also 9-3 in the Red Foxes last 12 contests following consecutive ATS defeats. Finally, the 'under' is 62-46 in Marist's last 108 games after giving up 80 points or more in its previous contest. Take the under (10*). |
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01-10-24 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 233.5 | Top | 141-105 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors were embarrassed on their home floor against the Raptors on Sunday, allowing 133 points as they suffered their fifth loss in their last seven games. I expect them to tighten the screws against a familiar opponent on Wednesday as they host the red hot Pelicans. Note that Golden State has held New Orleans to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven of eight meetings going back to the start of the 21-22 season. The Pelicans are quietly as locked-in as it gets defensively right now. They've allowed 42 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 straight games. They've also held seven of their last 10 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Warriors have been a mixed bag offensively and check in averaging just 41-of-90 shooting at home this season. While the 'over' did cash in the first meeting between these two teams this season, we haven't seen consecutive matchups go 'over' the total since the 2018-19 season. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-24 | Raptors v. Lakers OVER 233.5 | Top | 131-132 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. While few are paying much attention, the Raptors have gone on an offensive tear lately, knocking down 44 or more field goals in six of their last eight games with the 'over' cashing at a 6-2 clip over that stretch. The Lakers were fortunate to catch the Clippers on an off shooting night on Sunday as they allowed 91 field goal attempts but the Clips could only make good on 36 of them. While the Lakers have generally been able to slow down the opposition this season, we've seen a bit of a sputter lately as two of their last three foes have hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts. The Raptors don't always play fast but they're definitely making the most of their scoring opportunities right now and I like the rhythm they're in having played every second night going back to December 30th. On the flip side, you would have to go back 11 games to find the last time Toronto held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals. Of their last 10 opponents, seven have knocked down at least 43 field goals. Their last two foes have reached the 100 mark in terms of field goal attempts. For the Lakers, this will be their fourth straight home game and I expect them to come out with plenty of energy following an off day on Monday. While Sunday's game against the Clippers did stay 'under' the total, the Lakers haven't produced consecutive 'under' results since a four-game streak from December 2nd to 9th. Take the over (10*). |
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01-09-24 | Houston v. Iowa State UNDER 131.5 | Top | 53-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Iowa State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Iowa State has been able to force the issue offensively this season to generally positive results. It ranks 88th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Cyclones figure to face a stiff challenge here, however, as they host undefeated Houston. The Cougars sit 325th in the nation in adjusted tempo and no team ranks higher in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. In fact, only one of Houston's 14 opponents this season has managed to knock down 20 or more field goals. As I mentioned, Iowa State has shown out offensively at times but when stepping up in class (in games where the pointspread has closed at six points or less) it has been held to 62 points against Virginia Tech, 69 points against Texas A&M and most recently 63 points against Oklahoma this past Saturday. For Houston, this will be just its second true road game this season. In the Cougars lone previous road tilt they scored just 66 points in a six-point victory at Xavier. Note that the 'under' is 22-12 in the Cougars last 34 games following a double-digit home win, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 22-13 in Iowa State's last 35 contests following an ATS loss and 14-8 in its last 22 games after a loss against an conference opponent. Take the under (10*). |
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01-07-24 | Canisius v. Rider OVER 147 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Canisius and Rider at 2 pm et on Sunday. While a track meet between two struggling MAAC squads is probably the last thing on the mind of most bettors on a busy Sunday of sports action, I think we have an excellent spot to play the 'over' in this matchup. The Golden Griffins opposition has been stuffing the boxscore lately, knocking down 33, 31, 28 and 30 field goals in their last four games and Rider figures to take full advantage. The Broncs have lost three games in a row and are desperate for their first victory in conference play following another loss - by an 88-84 score - on the road against Quinnipiac on Friday. Like Canisius, Rider has been vulnerable defensively, allowing 28, 29, 27, 30 and 30 made field goals in its last five contests. Both teams are capable offensively. Rider knocked down 33 field goals in Friday's defeat while Canisius had an off shooting night but still got off a whopping 68 field goal attempts. The last time these two teams met last February they combined to score 159 points. Note that the 'over' is 17-6 in Rider's last 23 home games following three straight losses. The 'over' is also a long-term 116-84 with Canisius playing in a road underdog role. Take the over (10*). |
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01-03-24 | Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 223.5 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. This will be the fourth meeting already this season between these two teams and we're inexplicably working with the highest total of the bunch. It is worth noting the 'over' has cashed in all three previous matchups this season. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. The Timberwolves were already one of the slowest paced teams in the league this season but they've taken it to another level lately, hoisting up an unheard of (by today's NBA standards) 76 field goal attempts or fewer in each of their last four games. They've also held four of their last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The Pelicans have gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their last seven games. On the flip side they've held the opposition to just 35, 39, 36, 39 and 35 made field goals over their last five contests. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 45-28 with the Pelicans checking in as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 35-21 in the Timberwolves last 56 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher. Take the under (10*). |
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12-29-23 | Washington v. Colorado OVER 155 | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Colorado at 9 pm et on Friday. You would have to go back to January of 2021 to find the last time these two teams eclipsed the total we're working with on Friday night. I think that changes here. Washington doesn't figure to pose much of a defensive threat against the high-flying Buffaloes. The Huskies have allowed opponents to hoist up an average of 64 field goal attempts per game this season with that number rising to 67 on the road. There is reason to believe Washington can keep pace to a certain extent. The Huskies didn't turn in their best performance last time out against Eastern Washington but still scored 73 points on just 23 made field goals. They're averaging 30 made field goals per contest this season. Colorado plays at a faster tempo at home, where it has yielded an average of 61 field goal attempts per game to the opposition this season. Both teams rank inside the top-90 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Take the over (10*). |
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12-28-23 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 228.5 | Top | 114-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat saw their most recent game on Christmas Night sneak 'over' the total as they outlasted the 76ers on their home floor. Note that Miami has still held nine of its last 10 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back five games to find the last time the Heat connected on more than 41 field goals. The 'under' is 17-6 in the Warriors last 23 home games when playing on two of more days' rest, as is the case here. They covered but lost 120-114 in Denver on Christmas. Golden State has held seven of its last eight opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals and its last two foes to just 38 and 40 made field goals. Take the under (10*). |
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12-27-23 | Suns v. Rockets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 129-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets were involved in a relatively high-scoring game last night but what else would you expect against the Pacers. Houston ended up hoisting up an uncharacteristic 97 field goal attempts in that game, largely due to the fact it was playing from behind much of the way. I expect a different game script to unfold against the struggling Suns on Wednesday. While Phoenix has had a tough time winning games it has continued to limit its opponents' opportunities, allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five of its last six and nine of its last 14 games. On the flip side, the Suns have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in 14 of their last 15 contests. Houston limited Indiana to only 82 field goal attempts last night but the Pacers quite simply shot the lights out, as it often does. The Rockets have been incredibly stingy at home this season, holding the opposition to an average of just 36-of-86 shooting from the field. Houston has seen the 'under' cash in 17 of its last 23 games as a home underdog of six points or less. Take the under (10*). |
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12-25-23 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 226.5 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Heat's four-game 'over' streak came to an end last time out against Atlanta while Philadelphia enters Monday's contest riding a two-game 'over' streak. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most in this Christmas Night matchup. Note that the 76ers remain an elite defensive team. They've held eight straight and 11 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals - that's an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. Miami can also hold its own defensively having allowed 42 or fewer made field goals in four straight and eight of its last nine games. Add in the fact that the Heat have been scuffing their heels offensively, knocking down just 41, 40 and 40 field goals over their last three contests but check into this one in a near pk'em range and you can understand why I'm favoring the 'under' in Miami on Monday. Take the under (10*). |
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12-22-23 | Suns v. Kings UNDER 244.5 | Top | 105-120 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Friday. On paper, this sets up as a track meet as both teams are brimming with offensive talent. However, a closer look leads me to believe we're in for a lower-scoring affair than most are anticipating. Note that Phoenix generally plays at a fairly methodical pace (by today's NBA standards). Last time out, the Suns did hoist up 94 field goal attempts as they were trying to rally against the Blazers in an eventual defeat. Prior to that, Phoenix had gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in eight straight games. On the flip side, the Suns continue to play well defensively despite having little to show for it in the win column. Phoenix has held seven of its last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The Kings obviously pose a stiff challenge but the Suns did hold them to 114 points on 42-of-92 shooting in their most recent meeting on December 8th. Sacramento clearly got caught looking past an undermanned Celtics team that was playing the second of back-to-backs two nights ago, allowing Boston to knock down a whopping 51 field goals in the blowout loss. Prior to that, the Kings had held six straight foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. The fact that Sacramento took the first matchup between these teams this season is notable as the 'under' is 26-14 in the Suns last 40 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 or more points. Take the under (10*). |
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12-18-23 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 230 | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Bulls are coming off consecutive high-scoring games against the Heat in Miami but I look for a different story to unfold as they continue their road trip in Philadelphia on Monday. Note that Chicago still held Miami to just 83 field goal attempts last time out. The Heat quite simply shot the lights out. The Bulls have limited five straight opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. The 76ers are in terrific defensive form right now having held four straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While they are currently red hot offensively, it's worth noting that Chicago had their number last season, limiting them to 40 or fewer made field goals in all four matchups. The 'under' is 13-3 in the 76ers last 16 games when coming off four straight victories by 10 points or more, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-16-23 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 217 | Top | 116-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Bulls have incredibly held 24 of their 26 opponents to 90 field goal attempts or less this season. That's quite an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. The first game of this two-game set in Miami was actually high-scoring, resulting in 240 total points. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday. The Bulls have been performing well offensively in Zach LaVine's absence. They knocked down 45 field goals in Thursday's win over the Heat. With that being said, they're just one game removed from connecting on only 36 field goals in Denver. The Heat have been held to exactly 37 made field goals in three of their last four contests. They're unlikely to push the pace against the Bulls, noting they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 19 of their last 20 games. Thursday's game snapped a streak of five straight contests in which Miami had held the opposition to 87 FG attempts or fewer. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 26-13 in the Bulls last 39 road games following an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). |
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12-14-23 | Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 229.5 | Top | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. I'll admit my first reaction was to grab the points with the Timberwolves in this game as they look to bounce back following Monday's lopsided defeat in New Orleans. After taking a deeper look, I think the better play is on the 'under' on Thursday night in Dallas. Minnesota has really clamped down defensively in recent games, holding six of its last seven opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In three meetings with the Mavericks last season, the T'Wolves held them to just 84, 75 and 76 field goal attempts. Dallas is no better-suited to take advantage of Minnesota here with a number of key contributors either sidelined or banged-up. I do like the fact that both teams come in rested with the T'Wolves idle since Monday and the Mavs having last played on Tuesday here at home against the Lakers. While Minnesota has been rolling, it hasn't necessarily been blowing the doors off the opposition, knocking down 44 or fewer field goals in 15 consecutive games. While the 'over' has gone 8-3 in its 11 road games this season, those contests have averaged just 226.6 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-23 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 228.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I just don't see the sort of track meet developing that most are expecting as the Suns and Lakers do battle in the quarter-final round of the in-season tournament on Tuesday. The Lakers have already taken the first two meetings between these teams this season and if the Suns want to change the outcome here, they'll likely have to win ugly, noting they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in five of their last six games. The good news is, the Lakers don't figure to really push the pace. They've hoisted up 90 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 18 straight games. They've managed to connect on more than 40 field goals just once in their last four contests and that came against the hapless Pistons. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 123-93 in Lakers home games with the total set at 220 points or higher. The 'under' is also a long-term 33-23 with the Suns seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 or more points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-14-23 | Duke v. Michigan State OVER 141.5 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Michigan State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. While I do like Duke to bounce back from Friday's home loss against Arizona, I don't think the oddsmakers have its backers any favors by installing them as two-possession favorites against Michigan State at the United Center on Tuesday. Michigan State enters with perhaps just as big of a chip on its shoulder after it dropped a stunning home-opening loss to James Madison (before bouncing back with a blowout victory over Southern Indiana). Regardless, I expect both teams to go flat out in an effort to re-establish themselves in the national rankings (the Blue Devils fell from second to ninth while the Spartans tumbled from fourth all the way to 18th). Note that Michigan State has allowed each of its first two opponents to get out and run with both hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Duke won't shy away from pushing the pace here as it has attempted 59 and 65 field goals through two contests. You only have to go back to the 2022 NCAA Tournament to find the last time these storied programs met and the result was an 85-76 Duke victory. Take the over (10*). |
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11-03-23 | Mavs v. Nuggets OVER 226.5 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Nuggets have reeled off five straight 'under' results to open the season but I think we have a catalyst for change in play as they come off their first defeat of the campaign in Minnesota two nights ago. Denver had an off night shooting the basketball against the T'Wolves, knocking down just 38-of-96 field goal attempts. Prior to that, the Nuggets had made good on more than 40 field goals in all four games, topping out at a whopping 53 made field goals in a win in Oklahoma City. On the flip side, Denver has been terrific defensively but does figure to get tested here. Dallas has knocked down 47, 44 and 42 field goals in its first three games before being held to just 37 in a slow-paced game against the Bulls. Keep in mind, the Mavericks still scored 114 points in that most recent contest and a slower-paced affair was to be expected against Chicago. Defensively, the Mavs warts have yet to be exposed thanks to their strong offensive production. They've actually allowed all four opponents to make good on 42 or more field goals this season and the Nuggets ripped them for a blistering 88-of-162 (54.3%) shooting in two meetings in Denver last season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-26-23 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 229 | Top | 95-100 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams saw their respective season openers stay 'under' the total but I expect a different story to unfold as the Suns and Lakers match up in Los Angeles on Thursday. The Suns actually allowed Golden State to get off a whopping 101 field goal attempts on Tuesday but the Warriors couldn't make the most of their opportunities, knocking down only 36 of those attempts in a four-point loss. Meanwhile, Phoenix played with pace (95 field goal attempts) and shot reasonably well (42 made field goals), even with key offseason acquisition Bradley Beal sidelined (he's questionable to play on Thursday as well). The Lakers limited Denver to just 91 FG attempts on Tuesday but the Nuggets had little trouble against L.A.'s sieve-like defense, connecting on 48 of those shot attempts. I did come away impressed with the Lakers ability to at least match the Nuggets tempo (91 FG attempts). They simply had an off night shooting - something I expect them to rectify in their home-opener on Thursday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 17-5 with the Suns coming off a victory over a division opponent over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 233.5 points in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets UNDER 209.5 | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Monday. This series has taken a low-scoring tone for the most part with three of the first four games staying 'under' the total. As I've noted in my analysis of the last two contests, Miami hasn't been able to break through the offensive ceiling against Denver this season, making good on 39, 39, 39, 38, 34 and 35 field goals in six matchups. On the flip side, the Heat have held an incredible 20 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. In this series, Miami has limited Denver to 40, 39, 41 and 39 made field goals. There are still plenty of bettors chasing the 'over' in this series and as a result the oddsmakers can only set this number so low. It's not low enough in my opinion, noting that the 'under' is 16-7 with the Heat coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season and 14-6 with the Nuggets following five consecutive games in which they shot 47% or better from the field, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. While the Heat did outlast the Nuggets 111-108 in Game 2 of this series, they still failed to break through the offensive ceiling, connecting on only 38 field goals in another relatively slow-paced affair. Note that Miami has now knocked down 39, 39, 39 and 38 field goals in four meetings with the Nuggets this season. On the flip side, the Heat have now held an incredible 18 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. They've limited six straight and 10 of their last 11 foes to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. The Heat exploded for 17 made three-pointers in Game 2 but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here, noting that the Nuggets have held opponents to an average of 12 made threes per contest on the road this season. The 'under' is 20-9 with Denver coming off consecutive games in which it shot 50% or better from the field, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone a long-term 129-96 with the Heat playing at home on two or more days' rest, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 216.5 | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. Game 3 ultimately sailed 'over' the total thanks in large part to the lopsided nature of that contest. The game was actually well on track to stay 'under' the total until the floodgates opened in the final eight minutes or so of the fourth quarter. While most expect the Celtics to roll over on Tuesday, I do think we'll see them show some fight and that ultimately projects to a much tighter affair than we saw on Sunday. While the Heat did allow 98 field goal attempts in Sunday's victory, the Celtics could only connect on 39 of them. On the flip side, Miami shot the lights out, making good on 46-of-81 field goal attempts. I would anticipate seeing a similar tempo from the Heat here, noting that they've gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of their last 15 contests. While the Celtics haven't lived up to expectations defensively this season, and allowed 46 made field goals in Game 3 of this series on Sunday, it is worth noting that they haven't allowed 46 or more successful FG attempts in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd and that was the only occasion in which they did all season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 103-64 with the Heat coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 205-159 with Miami checking in off a win by 15 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. These two teams went off for 258 combined points in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. In my analysis prior to that contest I noted that the Lakers offensive ceiling would be considerably higher against the Nuggets (or had proven to be) than it was against the Warriors last round, with a similar floor. Los Angeles essentially hit that ceiling, or came awfully close, in the series-opener. In Game 2, I anticipate some regression with the Lakers likely falling closer to that typical 'floor' production level in this particular matchup. By that I mean Los Angeles had made good on 41 or fewer field goals in two of four regular season meetings in this series. The Lakers pace in Game 1 certainly wasn't indicative of the 126 points they ended up scoring as they actually got off only 84 field goal attempts in the contest. In fact, the Nuggets have now held four straight and 10 of their last 13 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The Lakers, meanwhile, haven't gotten off more than 87 field goal attempts in a game since Game 2 against the Warriors last round (they scored a series-low 100 points in that contest). While the Nuggets hoisted up 91 FG attempts on Tuesday that type of up-tempo performance has been the exception rather than the rule. Generally-speaking, it's not easy to speed up Denver. To find the last time the Nuggets got off 90 or more FG attempts in consecutive games you would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd and both of those contests actually stayed 'under' the total with Denver scoring just 93 and 112 points. After shooting the lights out in consecutive games going back to the series-clincher against the Suns last round, I'm anticipating some regression from the Nuggets here offensively. Keep in mind, in four regular season meetings between these two teams, Denver knocked down 'only' 42, 41, 39 and 46 field goals, scoring 122 points in the latter outlier performance in which they got off a whopping 99 FG attempts in early January (that game still totalled 'only' 231 points). Take the under (10*). Finally, we'll note that while the Lakers average 116.6 points per game overall this season, that number drops to 114.9 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS wins (22-game sample size), as is the case here. The Nuggets average 116.0 ppg this season with that scoring average dropping to 113.7 ppg when coming off three or more consecutive wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Friday. We're finally seeing a significant adjustment made to the total in this series, even after Game 5 ended up sneaking 'over' the closing number. I still feel Friday's total will prove too high. The Warriors went off offensively, knocking down 47-of-92 field goal attempts in Wednesday's victory. That was at home. They've made good on 43 or fewer field goals in five of their six playoff road games. On a similar note, the Lakers have now held their opponents to 36, 35, 42 (overtime game), 29, 36 and 40 made field goals in seven home playoff games (including the Play-In Tournament game against Minnesota). As I've mentioned throughout this series, while Los Angeles does have a fairly solid floor in terms of offensive production against the Warriors, it doesn't have a particularly high ceiling, topping out at 43 made field goals in nine matchups going back to the start of the regular season. Both teams are dealing with injury issues, as is often the case at this stage of the playoffs, with the Warriors listing Andrew Wiggins as questionable to play due to a rib injury and Anthony Davis probable after a possible concussion. I would anticipate both playing on Friday but certainly Wiggins - a key offensive contributor for the Warriors - won't be 100% healthy. As I've also noted throughout this series, the Warriors are on quite a defensive run having held 21 of their last 22 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals with the 'under' going 12-10 over that stretch. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 36-17 with Golden State playing on the road off a double-digit win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-07-23 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 228 | Top | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 8 pm et on Sunday. It seems like the oddsmakers are playing 'catch-up' with the totals in this series, making the usual adjustments after the fact but ultimately overreacting in hindsight (as is often the case). Game 1 saw 232 total points so the total was adjusted a couple of points higher for Game 2, which ended up reaching only 184 points. For Game 3, the total was adjusted considerably lower only for that contest to sail 'over' with 235 total points. Here, we're again working with a higher posted total and I believe it will prove too high. The Nuggets were baited into a much faster-paced affair than they probably would have liked in Game 3, hoisting up 97 field goal attempts themselves while allowing the Suns to get off 95. As we anticipated, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant relished the opportunity to play 'hero ball' down 2-0 in the series and with most counting them out with Chris Paul sidelined. The pair combined to knock down 32 field goals and score a whopping 86 points in the victory. I'm confident we'll see the Nuggets make the necessary adjustments here, noting that they had held 10 straight and an incredible 19 of their last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals prior to Phoenix knocking down 48 in that contest. As I mentioned, Denver got off 97 FG attempts in Friday's loss. You would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd to find the last time it hoisted up more than 90 FG attempts in consecutive games though, and those previous two contests still totalled only 193 and 222 points. Phoenix didn't look good defensively in Game 1 of this series but has held Denver to just 36 and 43 made field goals in two games since. Note that the Suns have limited 30 of their last 37 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. While Phoenix went off in Game 3, it had previously been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in five consecutive meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 217 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Boston at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this series sailed 'over' the total witb both teams shooting the lights out in a 119-115 76ers victory in Boston. I expect a much different story to unfold on Wednesday. The pace certainly didn't dictate such a high-scoring affair in the series-opener. Philadelphia hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while Boston got off just 75 in a stunning home defeat. Note that the 76ers knocked down 45 field goals - just the fourth time in their last 17 games that they managed to connect on more than 42 field goals. On the flip side, the 44 made field goals they allowed served as the first time in six games they yielded 40 or more successful field goal attempts. In fact, Philadelphia has still limited 18 of its last 23 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Boston hasn't been as stout defensively as we've become accustomed to seeing in these playoffs, I am confident it can bounce back from Monday's poor showing in Game 2. Note that the Celtics have held 18 of their last 21 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals - not a bad high-water mark in that department when you consider they've allowed 89 or more FG attempts in 10 straight and 14 of their last 15 contests. As I've noted previously in these playoffs, the C's have been yielding too many scoring opportunities but the 76ers are unlikely to continue to push the pace the way they did in Game 1, noting they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in 13 of their last 16 games and average just 84 FG attempts per game this season. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are heading into uncharted territory having matched their longest 'over' streak of the season at five games. Interestingly, the only previous time they posted five consecutive 'over' results, their next game stayed 'under' the total against these same 76ers. Take the under (10*). |
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05-02-23 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 227 | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams wrapped up round one of the NBA Playoffs with consecutive 'under' results. In fact, the 'under' went 4-1 in the final five games of the Lakers 4-2 series win over the Grizzlies. The 'under' cashed in four of the last six games in the Warriors 4-3 series victory over the Kings. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 1 of this Western Conference semi-final round series on Tuesday, however. Both of these teams invite up-tempo play from the opposition. Interestingly, the Lakers allowed 93, 106 (aided by overtime), 99 and 96 field goal attempts over their last four games against the Grizzlies. Memphis was simply unable to take advantage of its wealth of scoring opportunities, running cold at the absolute worst time (the Grizzlies made good on 44 or fewer field goals in all six contests). I don't expect the Warriors to suffer the same fate. The ramped up offensively as the series went on against the Kings, knocking down 40 or more field goals and hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in four of the final five games in the opening round. In fact, Golden State has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in nine of its last 12 contests and has hoisted up 100 or more FG attempts on five different occasions since February 23rd. On the flip side, the Warriors have yielded 90 or more FG attempts to their opponents in an incredible 13 straight games. With the Lakers rounding into form offensively, making good on more than 40 field goals in 11 of their last 14 contests and getting off 90 or more FG attempts in 11 of their last 13 overall, I believe this game sets up as a potential track meet. Keep in mind, the Lakers - despite not always being at full strength - managed to knock down 40 or more field goals in all four regular season meetings with the Warriors. Meanwhile, Golden State had little trouble finding looks, hoisting up 99, 96, 105 and 91 FG attempts in those four matchups. In eight meetings between these two teams since the start of last season, the low water mark in terms of points scored for either team was 103 with both teams putting up more than 110 points in five of those eight contests. Take the over (10*). |
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04-25-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 221 | Top | 109-112 | Push | 0 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 9 pm et on Tuesday. This play sets up similarly to when we (successfully) backed the 'over' in Game 2 of this series last week. Remember, the series-opener was exceptionally low-scoring with just 189 total points scored but as expected, Game 2 was much higher-scoring, reaching into the low-230's. Note that the 'under' hasn't cashed in consecutive meetings in this series since back in May and October 2021. Since then, the two teams have matched up 11 times with the 'over' going 8-3. While we did win with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Sunday, it wasn't easy as overtime nearly toppled the total. Of course that contest reached only 192 points in regulation time. As I've noted previously in this series, the Timberwolves have been one of the most productive 'fast break' teams in the league this season - top-eight in the league in fast break points during the regular season, in fact. While injuries have played a factor, they've played far too slow in this series. However, with some life following Sunday's overtime win, I do expect Minnesota to play with 'house money' on Tuesday and push the pace more than we've seen. Karl-Anthony Towns' two highest-scoring games of this series have come in the last two contests. The sudden absence of Kyle Anderson means more scoring opportunities for the likes of Towns and Anthony Edwards, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. On the flip side, the Nuggets are heavily-favored for a reason here. Note that while they average 115.7 points per game overall this season, that number bumps up to 118.5 when coming off a road loss (22-game sample size), resulting in an average total of 229.4 points in that situation. While it was aided by overtime on Sunday, Denver has now knocked down more than 40 field goals in all four games in this series. Finally, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-10 with the Nuggets playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 233.3 points in that spot. In fact the 'over' is 58-36 with Denver coming off a loss over the same stretch and a long-term 176-139 when the Nuggets check in off an outright defeat as a favorite, which is the situation here. Take the over (10*). |
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04-24-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers OVER 220.5 | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series last Sunday but have stayed idle from a totals perspective since with the 'under' cashing in the last two games. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair than we saw on Saturday, when the Lakers prevailed by a 111-101 score. The Grizzlies have shot poorly in consecutive games, knocking down just 38 and 35 field goals. The pace was certainly there for a higher-scoring contest on Saturday as Memphis hoisted up 93 field goal attempts and Los Angeles got off 90. Note that the last time the Grizzlies were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games was way back on February 5th and 7th. In their next game they went off for 49-of-84 shooting in a 128-point outburst against Minnesota. Prior to that they were held to 39 and 36 made field goals on December 25th and 27th, respectively, before knocking down 48 in a 119-point effort against Toronto. The week previous to that they were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive affairs before connecting on 45 in a 125-point performance against Phoenix. You get the picture. The Lakers responded following a poor offensive showing in Game 2 by making good on 41-of-90 field goal attempts for 111 points on Saturday. Note that the Grizzlies have now allowed seven of their last eight and 12 of their last 14 opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Neither team has been able to slow down its opposition with any sort of consistency with Memphis allowing 90 or more FG attempts in nine of its last 12 games and Los Angeles yielding 89 or more FG attempts in eight of its last 10 contests. We've now seen consecutive matchups in this series stay 'under' the total and that's notable as you would have to go back to late 2020-early 2021 to find the last time three straight meetings stayed 'under'. The last time we saw consecutive 'under' results in this series was on December 9th and 29th of 2021 and the next matchup resulted in a whopping 246 total points right here in Los Angeles. The Grizzlies average 116.5 points per game this season but that number rises to 117.1 when coming off a game in which they scored 105 points or less (17-game sample size), as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 228.6 points. Similarly, the Lakers average 116.8 points per game this season but that scoring average increases to 117.3 when coming off an 'under' result (39-game sample size), leading to an average total of 232.8 points in that spot. Finally, we'll note that you would have to go back to February 15th to March 3rd - when the Grizzlies posted an 0-5-1 o/u mark - to find the last time Memphis was involved in more than two 'under' results in a row. Meanwhile, the Lakers last posted a three-game 'under' streak from March 15th to 19th with the 'over' going 10-4 in their 14 games since. Take the over (10*). |
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04-19-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw an incredibly low-scoring (by today's NBA standards) series-opener between these two teams on Sunday as the Nuggets cruised to a 109-80 victory. I certainly expect to see a positive response from the Timberwolves offensively on Wednesday. Note that Minnesota has scored 107, 112, 109, 123 and 119 points after being held under 100 points in its previous game this season. It's also worth mentioning that the T'Wolves have averaged 118.7 points per game when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season compared to their overall season scoring average of 115.2 points per game. After hoisting up only 81 field goal attempts despite trailing most of the way on Sunday, I expect the T'Wolves to make a concerted effort to push the pace here, noting they rank eighth in the league in fast break points per game this season. Of course, the Nuggets are favored by a generous helping of points for a reason. They've been considerably better offensively at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 119.1 points per game. They didn't have to be great offensively to win handily in Game 1 but I do think they'll get pushed a little more here. Note that they enter this game having knocked down more than 40 field goals in six straight and 15 of their last 17 games overall. Meanwhile, Minnesota hasn't had much success controlling its opponents' tempo, allowing eight of its last nine opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts. Take the over (10*). |
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04-18-23 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 229.5 | Top | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Game 1 between these two teams on Saturday was an interesting affair that saw one quarter (the fourth) total only 42 points but another reach a whopping 70 points (the second). That contest ultimately cruised well below the total as both teams were inconsistent offensively. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2 on Tuesday, however, as the Hawks look to punch back while the Celtics try to grab a 2-0 strangle-hold before the scene shifts to Atlanta. One thing is for sure, the Hawks are going to get their scoring opportunities. In four meetings in this series this season, Atlanta has hoisted up 101, 100, 97 and 98 field goal attempts. Saturday's game marked a low-water mark as the Hawks made good on just 42 of those attempts. It's highly unlikely we'll see them shoot as poorly as they did on Saturday from beyond the arc (5-of-29 on three-point attempts). The problem is, even if Atlanta is able to do a much better job of taking advantage of its opportunities offensively, the Celtics are in line for some positive regression offensively as well and aren't likely to take their foot off the gas the way they did in the second half on Saturday. After scoring 74 points in the first half, Boston produced a miserable 38 points in the second half, actually letting the Hawks back into the game in the fourth quarter. Jaylen Brown clearly struggled after re-aggravating the laceration on his hand while Jayson Tatum scored well below his season average with 25 points on 10-of-23 shooting. Even going down the line, guys like Al Horford and Malcolm Brogdon made only minimal offensive contributions (11 points combined). Given the Hawks have now allowed more than 40 made field goals in 22 of their last 24 games and 40 or more in 26 of their last 28 contests, the Celtics are well-positioned to go off here. While Boston is still a terrific defensive team, we have certainly witnessed a shift this season with it yielding far more scoring opportunities thanks in large part to playing at a faster pace. The C's enter this game having allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine contests. On the flip side, they've hoisted up 88 or more FG attempts themselves in 11 of their last 12 games. The Hawks have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total. While they've recorded 'under' streaks lasting three games or more on five previous occasions this season, I think their totals are being over-adjusted at this point. For instance, their most recent three-game 'under' streak from March 26th to 31st saw all three contests total at least 231 points. Prior to that, a three-game 'under' streak from March 17th to 21st saw all three games reach at least 236 points. You get the idea. Take the over (10*). |
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04-17-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 240 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Sacramento at 10 pm et on Monday. The first game in this series breezed 'over' the total thanks to a parade to the free throw line with the two teams attempting a combined 59 shots from the charity stripe. Even with that in mind, they still 'only' eclipsed the total we're working with on Monday by nine points. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in each of the Warriors last two games. They haven't posted three straight 'over' results since the first week of February and even during that stretch they didn't see three consecutive games go 'over' the total we're working with here. While neither team is known for its defense, it's worth noting that the Warriors have held 11 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals while the Kings have limited five straight and eight of their last nine foes to that number or less. So in a sense we are dealing with a somewhat limited ceiling for the two offenses here. I certainly expect the Warriors to make some adjustments as they look to contain Malik Monk in particular after he went off in Game 1. On the flip side, Golden State could be without Jordan Poole for this game after he was limited due to injury in the series-opener. Gary Payton Jr. saw extended floor time with Poole struggling on Saturday with the former being more of a key defender than an offensive contributor. While the Warriors did shoot just 16-of-50 from three-point range on Saturday, that's not necessarily unexpected as they average 16 made threes per game on the road while the Kings have held the opposition to just 13 makes per game from beyond the arc here at home. Finally, I'll point out that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series go 'over' the total over the last 10 meetings. The last time that did occur was back in January and March of 2021. Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-23 | Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 226 | Top | 123-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and New Orleans at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter this play-in matchup on the heels of consecutive 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night in New Orleans. The Thunder have been relentlessly pushing the pace regardless who has been in or out of the lineup in recent weeks, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in 11 of their last 15 games and 92 or more in 10 of those contests. Unfortunately it has come at the expense of their defensive play it seems as they've allowed 12 of their last 13 opponents to knock down 40 or more field goals. While not known for their offensive prowess, the Pelicans appear well-positioned to take advantage having made good on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 18 games overall. While New Orleans got into this play-in tournament thanks in large part to its terrific defense down the stretch, we did see a three-game lull in which it yielded 42, 46 and 50 made field goals earlier this month. It followed that up by holding the Knicks and T'Wolves to just 38 and 39 made field goals in its final two regular season contests but those two opponents still managed to score 105 and 113 points. The Pelicans figure to have their hands full here, noting that the Thunder have averaged an impressive average of 124.5 points per game when coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games this season, as is the case here. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-3 in that situation, resulting in an average total of 243.7 points scored. Take the over (10*). |
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04-07-23 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 222.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We saw a very low-scoring game by today's NBA standards between these two teams on this same floor two nights ago as the Celtics scrapped their way to a 97-93 victory in a tough back-to-back situation. Here, I expect a lot more offense as the two teams get ready for the postseason but perhaps lack defensive intensity with little to play for at this point. The Raptors will certainly want to get back on track offensively after a dismal showing on Wednesday. They shot 6-of-33 from three-point range in that contest, noting that they average 11 made threes per game this season. The pace was still there as they hoisted up 90 field goal attempts in the loss. Note that they've gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven games overall. The Celtics are coming off consecutive poor offensive performances, including a 38-of-91 showing from the field in Philadelphia on Tuesday. Like the Raptors, the Celtics have continued to push the pace here late in the season, hoisting up 89 or more FG attempts in each of their last eight contests. While Boston is thought of as an elite defensive team, that hasn't necessarily been the case lately as it has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off 90 or more FG attempts and allows an average of 42 made field goals per game at home this season. The C's could be without two of their top defenders on Friday with Derrick White and Marcus Smart questionable to play as they employ some 'load management' in the late going. Take the over (10*). |
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04-06-23 | Blazers v. Spurs OVER 230 | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams have struggled at the best of times defensively and neither has much incentive to ratchet up the defensive intensity for Thursday's 'meaningless' matchup in San Antonio. With that being said, both teams are coming off 'under' results last time out and I feel that's affording us a very reasonable total to work with on Thursday. The Blazers have actually found some rhythm offensively despite missing so many key contributors. They've knocked down 40, 43 and 42 field goals over their last three games and have been comfortable pushing the pace more than they had been previously, hoisting up 85, 93 and 97 field goal attempts in those most recent three contests. They'll have a prime opportunity to build on those encouraging performances in San Antonio on Thursday as the Spurs have been sieve-like defensively, allowing 43 or more made field goals in an incredible 12 straight and 15 of their last 16 games overall. The only reason they gave up 'only' 43 made field goals last time out was due to the lopsided nature of their game against the Suns (Phoenix attempted only 89 field goals). In what projects as a much closer affair here, we can anticipate the Blazers getting well into the 90's in terms of FG attempts. The Spurs had their streak of three straight games knocking down at least 42 field goals snapped last time out. They'll take a major step down in class after facing the Suns in that matchup, however. Portland has allowed six of its last seven opponents to make good on at least 41 field goals despite four of those foes getting off 87 or fewer FG attempts. Note that the Spurs have hoisted up 90 or more FG attempts in seven straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall. Take the over (10*). |
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04-02-23 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 233.5 | Top | 134-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams enter Sunday's contest riding three-game 'under' streaks but I look for a reversal of that trend here. Houston has had a tougher time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down lately, hoisting up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in four of its last five games after eclipsing that mark five of its previous six contests. The outlier was a game in Brooklyn where the Rockets shot 46-of-98 from the field but still scored 'only' 114 points. Defensively, I like the fact that Houston has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities somewhat lately, allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four straight and eight of its last nine games overall. Los Angeles has displayed a different offensive dynamic since Lebron James returned to the lineup. The Lakers have a lot of mouths to feed offensively but its been Lebron that has absorbed the majority of the opportunities. Note that Los Angeles has shot 50% or better from the field in three straight games, knocking down exactly 45 field goals in back-to-back contests heading into this one. It's not as if the Lakers have been playing at a break-neck pace - they've gotten off 90 or more FG attempts just three times in their last 11 games, topping out at 91 over that stretch (in a game where they scored 'only' 116 points leading to a total of 227 against Oklahoma City). Discipline has been key defensively as Los Angeles hasn't allowed more than 118 points in any of its last 11 games despite all 11 of those opponents knocking down 40 or more field goals. The Lakers allowed 114 points the last time they faced the Rockets on March 15th but that was on a blistering 47-of-89 shooting and that contest still stayed 'under' the total with only 224 points scored. Take the under (10*). |
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04-01-23 | Miami-FL v. Connecticut UNDER 149.5 | Top | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Connecticut at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Miami has now seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total, matching its longest such streak of the season. The last time it came off three consecutive 'over' results, its next contest totalled only 134 points in a narrow loss to Duke back on January 21st. Last time out, the Canes couldn't miss from the field (they ended up shooting 59%) in a come-from-behind win over Texas. The Longhorns inexplicably decided to run with the Canes and did find some success offensively, knocking down 30-of-60 field goal attempts themselves but it wasn't enough. I don't think we'll see Connecticut push the pace nearly as much here, noting it ranks outside the top-200 in the country in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). While the Huskies have been red hot offensively, I don't think their best chance at winning this game comes by getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with Miami. The Canes are certainly in line for some regression offensively after scoring 85+ points and knocking down 34, 31 an 29 field goals over their last three games. Keep in mind, this is the same team that narrowly avoided the upset against Drake in the opening round, scoring only 63 points on 17-of-56 shooting in that contest. Lost in UConn's tremendous run offensively is the fact that it has been playing exceptional defense. You would have to go back nine games, all the way to February 25th against St. John's, to find the last time it allowed an opponent to make good on more than 24 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with Miami playing away from home after allowing 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 134.9 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 7-1 with UConn playing away from home after winning three or more games in a row ATS this season, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 132.4 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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03-30-23 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 236.5 | Top | 140-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks check in off consecutive high-scoring affairs in road wins over the Pistons and Pacers but should face a great deal more resistance in this back-to-back spot against a rested Celtics squad. Boston is coming off a high-scoring game of its own as it inexplicably allowed 130 points in a rout at the hands of the short-handed Wizards in Washington two nights ago. Perhaps that result was to be expected after the Celtics were lulled into a sense of complacency following three straight blowout wins. Here, I look for Boston to tighten things up, noting that it has still held five of its last seven opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While you wouldn't know it by their last few games, the Bucks can play some defense, especially here at home where they've limited the opposition to 42-of-93 shooting on average this season. In games that project as ultra-competitive (with the line between +3 and -3 as is the case here at the time of writing), the Bucks have posted a 17-29 o/u record over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 223.4 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-29-23 | Lakers v. Bulls UNDER 225.5 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. It was a struggle for the Lakers to just get shots off, let alone knock them down in Lebron James' return to the lineup on Sunday against Chicago. Los Angeles hoisted up only 75 field goal attempts in that double-digit loss, yet the game still found its way 'over' the total. It's worth noting that the Lakers haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since way back on February 4th and 7th. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in four of their last six games, getting off 78 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. The Bulls are coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against the Clippers in the back half of a back-to-back on Monday. Perhaps they were a little too 'fat and happy' after winning the first two games on their road trip in lopsided fashion. Here, I expect Chicago to lock back in defensively, noting that it has still held 16 of its last 22 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, it's not easy to speed up the Bulls offense, noting that even in a game where they trailed most of the way against the Clippers on Monday, they still hoisted up only 82 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 16-4 with the Lakers playing on the road off a double-digit home loss as a favorite, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 24-14 with the Bulls coming off a loss this season and 15-6 when that defeat came on the road. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UABĀ OVER 151.5 | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah Valley and UAB at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'over' in Utah Valley's 'upset' win over Cincinnati in the quarter-final round of the NIT last week as that contest stayed just 'under' the total thanks to a miserable shooting performance from the Bearcats (27-of-79 from the field). I think it's notable that the Wolverines allowed Cincinnati to hoist up just shy of 80 field goal attempts in that game. They figure to face a similar up-tempo approach from UAB here, noting that the Blazers have gotten off 63, 71, 66 and 64 FG attempts over their last four games yet somehow all four of those contests stayed 'under' the total, only serving to provide us with a reasonably-priced total here. In fact, UAB ranks 32nd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, just 10 spots ahead of Utah Valley. The Blazers have allowed each of their last five opponents to get off at least 60 FG attempts and Utah Valley is well-positioned to take advantage. The Wolverines have knocked down 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34, 33 and 25 field goals over their last eight contests with the two outliers coming in games where they still scored 72 and 74 points. Utah Valley comes off that 'under' result against Cincinnati but hasn't posted consecutive 'unders' over its last six contests. Take the over (10*). |
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas UNDER 149.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Texas at 5:05 pm et on Sunday. While I can understand the logic behind this total sitting in the high-140's on Sunday, I believe it will prove too high. Miami comes off consecutive 'over' results. It hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since January 11th to 16th - the only previous time this season it produced such a streak. Texas had its seven-game 'under' streak snapped in its win over Xavier on Friday. The Longhorns haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since February 6th and 11th. Texas has been on fire offensive, knocking down 31 or more field goals in each of its last four contests. It figures to be tested here, however, noting that while Miami's offense has impressed, it's defensive play has perhaps been even better, holding all three opponents in this tournament to 26 or fewer made field goals. Despite allowing Alabama to get off 64 field goal attempts on Friday, it still allowed just 24 made field goals. The Hurricanes have made good on 29 or more field goals in four of their last five games overall. Keep in mind, Texas hasn't allowed an opponent to reach that number since way back on February 18th against Oklahoma. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the Canes playing away from home after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 140 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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03-24-23 | Miami-FL v. Houston UNDER 138.5 | Top | 89-75 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Houston at 7:15 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Houston's second round rout of Auburn and also cashed the same play in Miami's stunning lopsided win over Indiana. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in as the Hurricanes and Cougars meet in Sweet 16 action on Friday, however. As a considerable underdog, I think Miami will have a keen interest in limiting the number of possessions in this one. Keep in mind, the Canes check in sporting a defense that ranks outside of the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) not to mention the fact they're up against a Houston squad that sits an impressive eighth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Of course, the Cougars should be easily convinced to keep this one at a methodical pace, noting that they rank 342nd (out of 364 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Only one team remaining in this tournament ranks higher than Houston in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency and that's Alabama. Note that while the Cougars did hang 81 points on Auburn last time out, they needed 60 field goal attempts to get there. Houston has still gotten off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last seven games. Meanwhile, Miami is almost certainly in for a letdown here after connecting on 34-of-70 field goal attempts in its rout of Indiana. The Canes jumped ahead by a considerable margin early and were able to dictate the pace from there. I don't anticipate them being nearly as successful in doing so against Kelvin Sampson's Cougars. Note that only one of Houston's last six opponents and two of its last nine have managed to knock down more than 20 field goals. While Miami's defense isn't on nearly the same level, it has proven capable of stepping up. A dominant defensive effort against Duke back in February comes to mind. Also note that the Canes have at least limited four of their last five foes to 27 or fewer made field goals. Finally, I'll point out that Miami hasn't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since late January-early February. The same goes for Houston. Take the under (10*). |
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03-22-23 | Utah Valley v. Cincinnati OVER 147.5 | Top | 74-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Utah Valley State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a couple of predictably low-scoring affairs in NIT quarter-final action last night but I expect a much different story to unfold as Cincinnati and Utah Valley State do battle in the second half of Wednesday's double-header. Utah Valley State succeeded in speeding up a favored Colorado team that probably would have preferred a slower tempo (with its 30th-ranked defense) on Sunday, pulling away for a convincing 81-69 victory in Boulder. I don't think the Wolverines will have any difficult coaxing red hot Cincinnati into an up-tempo affair here, noting that the Bearcats rank 114th (out of 364 Division I teams) in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The difference is, Cincinnati can take advantage of that fast pace, noting that it ranks an impressive 46th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). The Bearcats have incredibly knocked down at least 29 field goals in five of their last six games with the lone outlier coming in their conference championship game against Houston - one of, if not the best defensive team in the country. For their part, the Wolverines enter red hot offensively as well having made good on 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34 and 33 field goals over their last seven contests. Cincinnati has actually seen each of its last four games stay 'under' the total which means it is approaching uncharted territory, noting its longest previous 'under' streak this season lasted five games, that coming back in January. We're starting to see the totals creep downward as a result of the Bearcats 'under' streak, noting that their last two games saw closing numbers of 155 and 150. I believe tonight's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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03-21-23 | Cavs v. Nets OVER 218 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. This is the lowest total on Tuesday's NBA board and I believe it will prove too low. The Nets have seen each of their last three contests stay 'under' the total, thanks in large part to their own putrid offensive production. I think they're a far better offensive team than they've shown lately, however. They curiously waved the white flag late in Sunday's game against the Nuggets but I look for them to respond favorably here, noting that they're perhaps catching the Cavs at the right time with Cleveland having allowed five of its last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. The absence of Jarrett Allen has contributed to that and he is expected to return here, but I still think the Nets offense can do some damage, noting that they're more of an outside shooting team, not likely to force much into the teeth of the Cavs defense inside. Cleveland's offense is likely to go off in this spot. The Cavs have made good on 40 or more field goals in five straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. Meanwhile, the Nets defense has proven vulnerable, allowing 44, 48, 45, 45, 32 and 42 field goals over their last six contests. The outlier over that stretch came last week against Sacramento with the Kings struggling to find their shooting legs in the second of back-to-backs off a last-second win in Chicago the night previous. The Nets are approaching uncharted territory off three straight 'under' results here, noting that their longest 'under' streak since their pre-trade deadline dealings lasted four games but two of those four contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. You would have to go back six matchups in this series to find the last time the two teams didn't at least get into the 220's. Take the over (10*). |
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03-20-23 | Wolves v. Knicks OVER 227.5 | Top | 140-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. We got the result we wanted from the T'Wolves on Saturday as they scored only 107 points in a lopsided loss in Toronto, clearly reeling after Anthony Edwards suffered a scary injury the night previous in Chicago. Shockingly, Edwards was out of the walking boot on Sunday and is listed a day-to-day. He's unlikely to play on Monday but I do expect the T'Wolves offense to bounce back just the same. Minnesota has averaged an impressive 121.4 points per game when playing on the road in the second half of the season over the last two seasons and the 'over' is an incredible 14-1 when it plays on the road in a three-in-four situation over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 247.0 points in that spot. The Knicks are red hot off three straight wins, knocking down a consistent 42, 42 and 41 field goals over that stretch. They only figure to get stronger in Jalen Brunson's second game back from injury on Monday. Note that the Knicks have averaged an impressive 122.6 points per game with the 'over' going 14-6 when listed as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season. New York is a good defensive team but I'm not convinced it is elite in that department, having allowed at least 42 made field goals in six of its last seven games. The Knicks haven't been stronger defensively at home compared to on the road by any considerable margin this season, allowing 112.1 points per contest at MSG compared to their season scoring average allowed of 112.2 points per game. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-23 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 233.5 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. While the Bucks always garner plenty of attention, I'm not sure many are paying close attention to the style they're employing right now. It's quite fascinating actually. Milwaukee has allowed seven straight opponents to get off at least 95 field goal attempts with five of those foes hoisting up 100+. The Raptors aren't likely to shy away from an up-tempo affair here as they're feeling it, winners of three games in a row having gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in five straight contests. While Toronto has posted terrific defensive numbers during its current three-game winning streak, it's worth noting that those victories came against a reeling Nuggets squad, the Thunder who were in a difficult back-to-back spot and the T'Wolves without Anthony Edwards and also in a back-to-back situation. Also note that all three of those games came at home. There's no denying the Raps are red hot offensively. They've made good on 46, 49, 47 and 48 field goals over their last four games. The last time these two teams matched up on this same floor in January we saw 141 first half points in a game that finished north of 250. Take the over (10*). |