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Sean Murphy Basketball Top Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
03-08-25 Iowa State -6.5 v. Kansas State Top 73-57 Win 100 16 h 13 m Show

Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Kansas State at 1:30 pm et on Saturday.

Iowa State will be highly motivated to avenge an earlier 80-61 blowout loss at home against Kansas State. The Cyclones own the better overall record this season and have navigated the more difficult schedule, putting them in a strong position to respond in this rematch. They enter off a disappointing loss at home against BYU, which should only add fuel to their fire as they look to bounce back. Kansas State, meanwhile, has strung together consecutive wins and covered the spread in three straight games, but that recent success could leave the Wildcats in a prime letdown spot. Iowa State has the defensive intensity and disciplined play to exploit any complacency from Kansas State and turn this into a dominant performance.

With the Cyclones looking to get back on track and Kansas State potentially due for a regression, this sets up as an ideal spot for Iowa State to take control. The Cyclones will be eager to prove that the first meeting was a fluke and should dictate the tempo with their physical play and defensive pressure. Kansas State has been inconsistent throughout the season, and asking it to maintain its recent form against a fired-up Iowa State squad is a tall order. Look for the Cyclones to set the tone early and pull away for a convincing victory.

Take Iowa State. Projected score: Iowa State 74, Kansas State 61.

03-07-25 Old Dominion v. Appalachian State -8 Top 61-56 Loss -107 13 h 57 m Show

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Appalachian State minus the points over Old Dominion at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

Appalachian State enters this matchup with plenty of motivation, not only looking to advance in the Sun Belt Tournament but also seeking revenge after suffering an upset loss at home to Old Dominion in late January. While the Mountaineers have hit a rough patch, dropping three straight games SU and failing to cover in five consecutive contests, they’ve had nearly a full week to regroup and prepare for this opportunity. That rest advantage should play a key role against an Old Dominion squad that has already played two tournament games over the last two days. Fatigue could start to set in for the Monarchs, especially after their upset win over Texas State yesterday.

Old Dominion has won three straight games, but before that, it had lost six in a row while covering the spread just once during that stretch. Its recent success has likely inflated the line slightly, but the Monarchs are still up against it here. Appalachian State owns the superior record and has played the tougher schedule, and with fresh legs and added motivation, the Mountaineers should take full control of this game and cruise to a comfortable victory.

Take Appalachian State. Projected score: Appalachian State 77, Old Dominion 63.

03-06-25 Morgan State v. Coppin State +4.5 Top 75-82 Win 100 11 h 9 m Show

MEAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Coppin State plus the points over Morgan State at 8 pm et on Thursday.

While Coppin State holds the worse overall record in this matchup, it has faced a significantly tougher schedule, which should serve it well in this revenge spot. The Eagles will be looking to bounce back after dropping two straight games, including an unexpected loss to Maryland-Eastern Shore on Monday. Despite falling by a 16-point margin in the first meeting against Morgan State back in January, Coppin State should be better prepared this time around, particularly with the added motivation of playing on its home floor.

Morgan State enters this contest riding a two-game winning streak, but it could be in for a letdown after pulling off an upset victory over Delaware State on Monday. The Bears have been inconsistent for much of the season, making them vulnerable in this type of spot. Expect Coppin State to push the tempo and keep this game competitive, with a legitimate shot at springing the upset.

Take Coppin State. Projected score: Coppin State 70, Morgan State 68.

03-05-25 Wolves v. Hornets +9 Top 125-110 Loss -110 11 h 29 m Show

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Minnesota at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

This is a tricky scheduling spot for Minnesota as it looks to secure a third straight win both straight-up and against the spread after a second consecutive double-digit victory last night over Philadelphia. Prior to that surge, the Timberwolves had dropped back-to-back games both SU and ATS and have struggled with consistency dating back to early February. With this being the second leg of a back-to-back and a potential letdown looming, I don’t expect the same level of intensity from Minnesota in this matchup.

Charlotte is in the midst of a rough stretch, having lost seven in a row while dropping its last two against the spread. That said, this is a favorable revenge spot for the Hornets after suffering a blowout loss in Minnesota earlier this season. Already 0-2 on their current homestand, they’ll be eager to turn things around before Cleveland arrives on Friday. Given the situation, I expect Charlotte to come out with energy and push Minnesota in what should be a closer game than anticipated.

Take Charlotte. Projected score: Minnesota 106, Charlotte 104.

03-04-25 San Diego State -2.5 v. UNLV Top 67-74 Loss -110 14 h 16 m Show

Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over UNLV at 11 pm ET on Tuesday.

We'll lay the short number with the revenge-minded Aztecs after they were stunned 76-68 as a double-digit home favorite against UNLV earlier this season. It's been a banner season by all accounts for San Diego State as it has gone 20-7 to this point and has faced a more difficult schedule than 16-13 UNLV, even if only slightly.

San Diego State is coming off an ATS defeat on Saturday at Wyoming. However, note that the Aztecs haven't dropped the cash in consecutive games since a four-game slide in late January-early February. Meanwhile, UNLV is in a clear letdown spot following consecutive wins and covers, including an upset home victory over Nevada last Friday.

Take San Diego State. Projected score: San Diego State 75, UNLV 66.

03-04-25 Arkansas +6.5 v. Vanderbilt Top 90-77 Win 100 13 h 24 m Show

SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Vanderbilt at 10 pm ET on Tuesday.

We'll grab the generous helping of points with Arkansas as it looks to rebound following a blowout loss in what projected as a toss-up game at South Carolina on Saturday. That loss only served to snap a two-game SU winning streak and an incredible 7-0-1 ATS run. I look for the Razorbacks to bounce back and at least take this game down to the wire.

Vanderbilt has reeled off three straight wins both SU and ATS, including back-to-back upset victories in its last two contests. While these two teams own similar overall records this season (Vandy's is slightly better), Arkansas has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Expect a competitive affair all the way with the Hogs putting the Commodores on upset alert.

Take Arkansas. Projected score: Vanderbilt 74, Arkansas 72.

03-04-25 Green Bay v. Oakland -11 Top 72-96 Win 100 11 h 50 m Show

Horizon League Game of the Year. My selection is on Oakland minus the points over Green Bay at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

We'll lay the points with Oakland as it looks to advance past Green Bay in convincing fashion in this Horizon League Tournament opener. These two teams just met on Saturday, with Oakland eking out an 87-84 win but failing to cover the spread.

Oakland has gone 4-2 over its last six games and had delivered the cash in consecutive contests before Saturday. Despite a 14-17 overall record, the Grizzlies have hung tough against difficult opponents and have faced a tougher schedule than Green Bay, which has struggled to a 4-27 mark.

Green Bay enters this contest having cashed five straight ATS tickets, which I believe has led to a slightly deflated number in Oakland’s favor. Expect the Grizzlies to pull away for a double-digit victory.

Take Oakland. Projected score: Oakland 84, Green Bay 67.

03-03-25 Blazers v. 76ers UNDER 229.5 Top 119-102 Win 100 10 h 42 m Show

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the under between Portland and Philadelphia at 7 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams are coming off 'over' results, with Portland cashing three straight, but the numbers suggest a lower-scoring contest here. The Blazers' game in Cleveland yesterday included overtime, yet both teams still only made 42 field goals each. Portland has quietly tightened up defensively, holding five of its last six opponents under 40 made field goals in regulation.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, snapped a long losing streak with an 'upset' win over Golden State on Saturday, thanks to an uncharacteristically hot shooting night. That type of offensive explosion has been rare for the 76ers, who have held six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Expect this matchup to settle into a slower-paced, defensive-oriented affair.

Take the under. Projected score: 76ers 108 Trail Blazers 102.

03-02-25 Clippers v. Lakers OVER 219.5 Top 102-108 Loss -110 13 h 53 m Show

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the over between the Clippers and Lakers at 9:30 pm ET on Sunday.

These teams just faced off on Friday in a defensive battle that ended in a 106-102 Lakers victory. However, I expect a faster pace and higher-scoring affair in this rematch.

The Lakers have now gone under the total in six consecutive games, matching their longest such streak of the season. That trend has likely caused oddsmakers to set the total a bit too low for Sunday’s contest. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been alternating between over and under results, having not played consecutive under games since mid-January. Given the offensive firepower on both sides, I expect this one to break the recent under trend.

Take the over. Projected score: Clippers 118, Lakers 113.

03-02-25 Evansville v. Illinois State -9 Top 53-62 Push 0 7 h 56 m Show

Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Illinois State minus the points over Evansville at 3 pm ET on Sunday.

The Redbirds will be out for revenge after suffering a surprising 69-51 loss at Evansville earlier this season. While Illinois State has dropped back-to-back ATS decisions, this sets up as a strong rebound opportunity in its home finale.

Evansville enters this matchup riding a four-game ATS winning streak, but it has also lost two straight games outright. The Purple Aces have struggled overall this season and own the weaker record between these two teams, despite facing a similar strength of schedule.

Look for Illinois State to assert itself at home and secure a comfortable victory.

Take Illinois State. Projected score: Illinois State 76, Evansville 60.

03-01-25 Bucks v. Mavs OVER 227.5 Top 132-117 Win 100 14 h 13 m Show

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Dallas at 8:40 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams enter this matchup riding 'under' streaks, the recent pace of play and defensive vulnerabilities point toward a higher-scoring affair. Milwaukee has seen back-to-back 'under' results, but those games weren’t due to a lack of opportunities—its opponents attempted 91 and 105 field goals, exposing some defensive weaknesses. On the offensive side, the Bucks found a rhythm in their recent win over Denver, putting up 90 field goal attempts, their most in seven games.

Dallas has cashed four straight 'under' tickets, but that has more to do with poor shooting efficiency than a lack of possessions. The Mavericks have attempted 98 and 97 field goals in their last two games, keeping the pace high. More importantly, their defense has been shaky, allowing seven of their last eight opponents to get off more than 90 shot attempts. If Milwaukee continues to push the tempo and Dallas struggles defensively, this total should be in play for an 'over.'

Take the 'over'. Projected score: Milwaukee 122, Dallas 118.

03-01-25 Chicago State +8.5 v. St Francis PA Top 71-80 Loss -110 16 h 15 m Show

NEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago State plus the points over Saint Francis (PA) at 1 pm ET on Saturday.

We'll grab the points with Chicago State as it looks to close its regular season on a high note in a revenge spot against Saint Francis (PA). The Red Flash took the first meeting between these teams 81-69 as a short two-point road favorite back on February 8th. However, Saint Francis enters this contest in a clear letdown spot after recording back-to-back wins and covers.

Chicago State has certainly faced the tougher overall schedule compared to Saint Francis, which has played one of the weakest slates in the NEC this season. While the Cougars are riding a six-game losing streak SU and have dropped two straight ATS, I expect them to put up a strong fight in this rematch. Look for Chicago State to keep things competitive and take this one down to the wire at the very least.

Take Chicago State. Projected score: Saint Francis (PA) 72, Chicago State 70.

02-28-25 Appalachian State +3.5 v. Marshall Top 57-75 Loss -115 13 h 46 m Show

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Appalachian State plus the points over Marshall at 9 pm ET on Friday.

This is a quick rematch of a game played less than a week ago, where Marshall pulled off a 69-59 upset win as a 3.5-point underdog on the road. I expect Appalachian State to turn the tables in the rematch as it heads to Marshall looking to snap its recent skid.

Despite their nearly identical overall records, Appalachian State has faced the more difficult schedule this season, which should serve them well in this revenge spot. The Mountaineers will be highly motivated to avoid closing out the regular season on a three-game losing streak, especially after four straight ATS losses. Meanwhile, Marshall is in a potential letdown spot following three consecutive SU victories (2-0-1 ATS).

Look for a much more competitive game this time around, with Appalachian State keeping things close, if not winning outright.

Take Appalachian State. Projected score: Appalachian State 72, Marshall 70.

02-28-25 Raptors +2.5 v. Bulls Top 115-125 Loss -115 12 h 6 m Show

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Chicago at 8 pm ET on Friday.

The Raptors are coming off a predictable 111-91 blowout loss in Indiana, where they ran into a highly motivated Pacers squad seeking revenge. Now, the script flips as Toronto will look to avenge two previous losses against Chicago this season, including an ‘upset’ defeat as a 4.5-point home favorite on January 31st.

Despite their ATS setback against the Pacers, the Raptors remain an impressive 13-7 ATS over their last 20 games. Meanwhile, the Bulls enter this contest on a four-game ATS winning streak but have won outright just once in their last eight outings. Chicago’s porous defense has been a glaring issue, as it has allowed nine of its last ten opponents to make at least 42 field goals.

Toronto is primed for a bounce-back effort offensively after shooting just 37-for-87 from the field in Indiana. Expect the Raptors to keep this one tight, if not pull off the outright win.

Take Toronto. Projected score: Toronto 115, Chicago 112.

02-28-25 Brown v. Harvard Top 59-52 Win 100 8 h 12 m Show

Ivy League Game of the Year. My selection is on Brown over Harvard at 5 pm ET on Friday.

We'll back the Brown Bears as they seek revenge for an earlier blowout loss against Harvard this season. That defeat came as a 4.5-point home favorite, adding extra motivation for the Bears here. Brown is also looking to bounce back after an 85-81 loss at home against Cornell last time out. Prior to that, the Bears had strung together four straight ATS victories.

Harvard, on the other hand, enters this contest riding a four-game ATS winning streak, but it's coming off a narrow 79-78 'upset' loss on the road against Penn. The Crimson could be in for a letdown here, while Brown should be primed to respond with a strong performance.

Take Brown. Projected score: Brown 74, Harvard 69.

02-27-25 Pepperdine +3.5 v. Portland Top 67-87 Loss -115 14 h 58 m Show

WCC Game of the Year. My selection is on Pepperdine plus the points over Portland at 10 pm ET on Thursday.

Portland dominated the first meeting between these two teams with an 84-64 road victory back on February 1st, but I expect a much more competitive contest this time around as Pepperdine seeks revenge.

The Waves enter this game on a three-game losing streak, including a double-digit ATS loss at Loyola Marymount last time out. Meanwhile, Portland has been on a roll, winning three of its last four games SU while covering the spread in four straight. However, it's worth noting that Pepperdine has faced the tougher schedule this season, and the two teams have nearly identical overall records.

Given the circumstances, I expect Pepperdine to put forth a strong effort and keep this game extremely close at the very least.

Take Pepperdine. Projected score: Pepperdine 75, Portland 73.

02-27-25 Middle Tennessee +1.5 v. New Mexico State Top 71-66 Win 100 12 h 13 m Show

C-USA Game of the Month. My selection is on Middle Tennessee State plus the points over New Mexico State at 9 pm ET on Thursday.

MTSU will be seeking revenge after dropping a 61-57 home decision to NMSU back on January 30th. The Blue Raiders have been trending in the right direction since then, winning four of their last six games SU, including a victory over Sam Houston State on Saturday.

The strength of schedule also leans in MTSU’s favor, as the Blue Raiders have played a tougher slate compared to the Aggies while also owning the better overall record this season.

Meanwhile, New Mexico State enters this contest in a letdown spot, having won three straight games both SU and ATS, with back-to-back upsets in its last two contests. Returning home after that type of stretch can often lead to a dip in performance, and I expect MTSU to capitalize.

Look for the Blue Raiders to keep this one close and have a real shot at the outright victory.

Take Middle Tennessee State plus the points. Projected score: Middle Tennessee State 69, New Mexico State 67.

02-26-25 Kings v. Jazz OVER 236 Top 118-101 Loss -108 10 h 28 m Show

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the over between Sacramento and Utah at 9 pm ET on Wednesday.

Both teams are coming off 'under' results, but I expect a different outcome in this matchup. The Kings took advantage of a struggling Hornets squad two nights ago, holding them to just 30 made field goals in a blowout win. However, prior to that game, Sacramento had allowed at least 43 made field goals in 9 of its previous 10 and 12 of its last 14 contests.

Meanwhile, the Jazz are fresh off a poor shooting performance against Portland on Monday, but they've attempted 90 or more field goals in three straight games. They’ll have their chances to bounce back offensively here. On the defensive side, Utah has been highly permissive, allowing six straight and eight of its last nine opponents to attempt at least 92 field goals.

Sacramento has been efficient offensively, making 40+ field goals in six straight games and 25 of its last 26. This game has all the makings of a high-paced, high-scoring affair.

Take the over. Projected score: Kings 128, Jazz 122.

02-26-25 Boston College v. Stanford -10.5 Top 60-78 Win 100 13 h 39 m Show

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Stanford minus the points over Boston College at 9 pm ET on Wednesday.

Boston College enters this matchup riding high off consecutive 'upset' victories and four straight ATS wins. However, I expect its run to come to an end as it travels west to take on ACC newcomer Stanford.

The Cardinal snapped a two-game slide with a 66-61 home victory over Cal on Saturday but once again failed to cover the spread, marking their seventh consecutive ATS loss. Despite their struggles against the number, Stanford owns the better overall record this season and has faced a tougher schedule by most metrics.

With a tougher matchup against SMU looming, I look for the Cardinal to lock in and deliver a dominant performance here.

Take Stanford. Projected score: Stanford 75, Boston College 61.

02-26-25 Raptors v. Pacers -10 Top 91-111 Win 100 11 h 20 m Show

Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Toronto at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

The Pacers were in a tough spot on Monday, playing the second leg of a back-to-back against a well-rested Denver squad eager to snap its losing skid. Indiana came up short both SU and ATS in that contest, but I expect a much stronger performance here.

With a day of rest, Indiana should be in prime position to bounce back against a Raptors team that just covered the spread in a hard-fought home game against Boston last night. This will be a tough scheduling spot for Toronto, playing its second game in as many nights and heading on the road against a motivated Pacers team.

Indiana has undoubtedly had this game circled after suffering two 'upset' losses in Toronto earlier this season. Look for the Pacers to take care of business at home.

Take Indiana. Projected score: Indiana 128, Toronto 111.

02-25-25 Ohio v. Western Michigan +6 Top 73-82 Win 100 11 h 39 m Show

MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Western Michigan plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

Ohio comes into this matchup with momentum after an 'upset' blowout win over Akron, completing a two-game homestand sweep. However, the Bobcats are just 15-12 overall and have faced a relatively weak schedule compared to Western Michigan.

The Broncos will be looking to avenge one of their worst losses of the season, a 94-69 road defeat against Ohio earlier this month. While Western Michigan is coming off an ugly 86-57 home loss to Central Michigan on Saturday, that result snapped a two-game SU and three-game ATS winning streak. I expect them to regroup and keep this one much more competitive than their previous meeting with the Bobcats.

Take Western Michigan. Projected score: Ohio 75, Western Michigan 74.

02-25-25 Northwestern v. Minnesota -2.5 Top 75-63 Loss -108 9 h 20 m Show

Big Ten Favorite of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Northwestern at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

The Golden Gophers have faced a tougher schedule this season compared to the Wildcats, and despite coming off an upset loss to Penn State, they will be highly motivated to bounce back on their home floor. Minnesota had a challenging spot on Saturday after a successful road trip to California, which contributed to the loss, but they should be better prepared for this matchup.

Northwestern, on the other hand, is in a letdown spot. They’re coming off a big win against Ohio State, but that victory came after a three-game losing streak, and they’ve struggled to find consistency, especially on the road. They are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games, which indicates they are vulnerable in situations like this.

Minnesota’s defense and rebounding advantage should help them cover the spread and secure a solid victory here.

Take Minnesota. Projected score: Minnesota 74, Northwestern 64.

02-24-25 Howard v. Coppin State +8.5 Top 61-72 Win 100 11 h 15 m Show

MEAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Coppin State plus the points over Howard at 8 pm ET on Monday.

We'll take the points with Coppin State as it looks to avenge an earlier 90-75 road loss to Howard. While the Bison have the superior overall record, they've played a significantly weaker strength of schedule. Howard is coming off a road win and cover against Morgan State on Saturday, but it's worth noting that the Bison have struggled away from home, posting a 4-10 SU road record this season.

Coppin State has dropped three straight games SU and two in a row ATS, but the Eagles have only played eight of their 25 games this season at home. With three of their final four regular-season contests being played in their own building, I expect them to put up a stronger effort in this one. Look for Coppin State to keep things competitive.

Take Coppin State plus the points. Projected score: Howard 74, Coppin State 71.

02-23-25 Heat v. Bucks UNDER 221.5 Top 113-120 Loss -108 9 h 2 m Show

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Milwaukee at 6:10 pm ET on Sunday.

The Bucks have embraced a more methodical approach in recent games, resulting in three straight victories and three consecutive 'under' cashes. They've attempted 82 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games, converting on fewer than 40 of those in all four contests. That trend aligns with a defensive emphasis that has seen Milwaukee hold each of its last four opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals.

Miami figures to present another tough defensive challenge. The Heat have limited four of their last six opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While they managed an efficient 46 field goals in Friday’s 120-111 win over Toronto, that came against a far weaker defensive opponent than the Bucks. Prior to that, Miami had been held to under 40 field goals in four straight games.

These two teams last met on January 23rd in a game that was played at a faster pace than expected yet still finished with just 221 total points. Given both teams' recent trends and defensive focus, I anticipate a lower-scoring affair.

Take the under. Projected score: Milwaukee 108, Miami 104.

02-22-25 Cal-Irvine -7.5 v. CS Bakersfield Top 73-64 Win 100 11 h 22 m Show

Big West Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Cal-Irvine minus the points over Cal State-Bakersfield at 9:30 pm ET on Saturday.

We'll back the Anteaters to rebound in dominant fashion after suffering an unexpected home loss to Cal State-Northridge on Thursday. That defeat snapped a short two-game winning streak, but it should serve as a wake-up call for a 22-5 Cal-Irvine squad that remains the superior team in this matchup. While the Anteaters have struggled against the spread recently, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six games, this sets up as an ideal bounce-back spot against an overmatched Cal State-Bakersfield squad. The Roadrunners have managed to win back-to-back games both SU and ATS, including an 'upset' at Cal-Davis on Thursday, but they’ve faced a considerably weaker schedule than Irvine and could be in for a letdown here.

Cal-Irvine holds distinct advantages on both ends of the floor, ranking among the top teams in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Bakersfield has struggled against high-caliber opponents, and its recent success doesn’t erase the fact that it has been inconsistent for much of the season. Look for the Anteaters to assert themselves early and pull away late for a decisive victory.

Take Cal-Irvine. Projected score: Cal-Irvine 78, Cal State-Bakersfield 63.

02-22-25 CS-Northridge v. UC-Davis +4 Top 65-62 Win 100 10 h 59 m Show

My selection is on Cal-Davis plus the points over Cal State-Northridge at 5 pm ET on Saturday.

We'll back the home underdog as Cal-Davis looks to avenge an earlier lopsided loss to Cal State-Northridge. While Northridge comes in riding a six-game winning streak, including an impressive road upset over Cal-Irvine two nights ago, that victory puts the Matadors in a classic letdown spot. Meanwhile, Cal-Davis is desperate to right the ship after dropping back-to-back games SU and three straight ATS. Despite Northridge owning the better overall record, Cal-Davis has played the tougher schedule by most metrics, and that experience against stronger competition could pay dividends in a closely contested matchup.

With revenge on its mind and an opportunity to capitalize on a potentially fatigued and overvalued Northridge squad, Cal-Davis should put forth one of its better performances of the season. The Aggies’ defense will need to step up, but their extra motivation combined with the home-court edge should make this one much tighter than expected. An outright upset is well within reach.

Take Cal-Davis. Projected score: Cal-Davis 73, Cal State-Northridge 70.

02-21-25 Dartmouth v. Pennsylvania OVER 147.5 Top 75-88 Win 100 11 h 8 m Show

Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Penn at 7 pm ET on Friday.

Dartmouth comes in on a three-game 'under' streak, but I expect that trend to reverse here. While the Big Green have managed to keep recent opponents in check offensively, they’ve also allowed eight straight teams to hoist more than 60 field goal attempts. That suggests their recent 'under' run has been more about poor shooting from opponents than a true defensive lockdown.

Penn, meanwhile, is struggling through a five-game losing streak and will likely come out with urgency. The Quakers have been poor defensively, allowing 11 of their last 12 opponents to knock down 27 or more field goals, with six of those foes reaching the 30-field goal mark.

The first meeting between these teams totaled 143 points, and we're dealing with a higher posted total this time around. Given the expected pace and defensive struggles on Penn’s side, I believe that number is justified.

Take the over. Projected score: Penn 81, Dartmouth 76.

02-20-25 Portland State v. Idaho State -1.5 Top 74-82 Win 100 13 h 41 m Show

Big Sky Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Idaho State minus the points over Portland State at 9 pm ET on Thursday.

We'll lay the short number with Idaho State as it looks to snap a two-game SU and ATS skid while avenging an earlier loss to Portland State. The Bengals should be highly motivated to get back on track after back-to-back defeats, and they’ll have the benefit of playing at home.

Portland State comes in riding a two-game SU and ATS winning streak, but both of those victories came on its home floor. While the Vikings own the better overall record, Idaho State has faced the tougher schedule by most metrics. Look for the Bengals to assert themselves and pull away down the stretch.

Take Idaho State. Projected score: Idaho State 74, Portland State 67.

02-20-25 Austin Peay +6.5 v. Queens NC Top 92-78 Win 100 11 h 4 m Show

Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on Austin Peay plus the points over Queens-Charlotte at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

Austin Peay will look to bounce back after suffering a blowout road loss against Bellarmine on Tuesday. While the Governors were struggling in that one, Queens-Charlotte was picking up a comfortable double-digit win over Central Arkansas. However, despite the Royals' superior record, Austin Peay has faced a tougher overall schedule and should be more competitive in this rematch.

The Governors will also have revenge on their minds after falling 67-60 at home to Queens-Charlotte back on January 11th. Expect an even closer contest this time around, with Austin Peay keeping it tight.

Take Austin Peay. Projected score: Queens-Charlotte 74, Austin Peay 73.

02-19-25 Wofford -6.5 v. VMI Top 82-43 Win 100 10 h 14 m Show

Southern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Wofford minus the points over VMI at 6 pm ET on Wednesday.

The Terriers look to bounce back after a home loss to Samford, which snapped a brief two-game winning streak. While Wofford and VMI have similar overall records, Wofford has faced a significantly tougher schedule. Additionally, the Terriers have been strong on the road, winning three straight away from home.

VMI is coming off an 'upset' win at Mercer but has alternated wins and losses over its last four games, both SU and ATS. Despite their solid betting record this season, the Keydets have benefited from a relatively soft schedule. Expect Wofford to take care of business and cover the number comfortably.

Take Wofford. Projected score: Wofford 78, VMI 65.

02-18-25 Kansas +3.5 v. BYU Top 57-91 Loss -110 10 h 57 m Show

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas plus the points over BYU at 9 pm ET on Tuesday.

The Jayhawks have struggled against the spread lately, dropping three straight ATS decisions, including an outright upset loss at Utah on Saturday. However, this is a prime bounce-back spot for Kansas, as it remains on the road to take on a BYU squad riding high off consecutive wins and covers.

The Cougars impressed with a dominant 15-point victory over Kansas State on Saturday, but this marks a step up in competition. While both teams share identical overall records, Kansas has navigated a significantly tougher schedule and should be well-prepared for this challenge.

Expect a highly competitive battle, with Kansas ultimately proving its toughness in a tightly contested affair.

Take Kansas. Projected score: Kansas 75, BYU 72.

02-18-25 Oklahoma +15.5 v. Florida Top 63-85 Loss -115 11 h 25 m Show

SEC Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma plus the points over Florida at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

The Sooners enter this matchup on a four-game slide, both SU and ATS, including an upset loss at home against LSU on Saturday. That sets up a strong bounce-back opportunity, as they look to regain form against a Florida team riding high off four consecutive wins, both SU and ATS, capped by a dominant performance against South Carolina.

While Florida owns the better overall record, Oklahoma has been tested by the more difficult schedule. The Gators could find themselves in a bit of a letdown spot here, making this a prime opportunity for the Sooners to keep things competitive and potentially pull off the upset.

Take Oklahoma. Projected score: Florida 78, Oklahoma 72.

02-17-25 Lamar v. Northwestern State -1 Top 75-65 Loss -115 11 h 26 m Show

Southland Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Northwestern State minus the points over Lamar at 7:30 pm ET on Monday.

We'll lay the short number with Northwestern State as it looks to rebound from an 'upset' home loss against Stephen F. Austin on Saturday, a defeat that snapped its three-game ATS winning streak. Despite the setback, Northwestern State has faced the more difficult schedule this season and should be in a strong position to respond here.

Lamar enters off a win and cover to start its four-game road trip. The Cardinals have won three straight SU and back-to-back games ATS, but this sets up as a tough test against a revenge-minded Northwestern State squad. Lamar won the first meeting between these teams by 10 points at home on January 27th, and I expect Northwestern State to return the favor on Monday night.

Take Northwestern State. Projected score: Northwestern State 77, Lamar 69.

 
02-15-25 Missouri v. Georgia +2.5 Top 87-74 Loss -111 18 h 38 m Show

SEC Game of the Week. My selection is on Georgia plus the points over Missouri at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday.

We'll grab all the points we can with Georgia in this spot as the Bulldogs look to bounce back following back-to-back losses both SU and ATS. Despite those setbacks, Georgia has been tested against a stronger overall schedule than Missouri and should be prepared for this challenge.

Missouri enters this game off a dominant 24-point home rout of Oklahoma, putting them in a prime letdown position. The Tigers may have the slightly better overall record, but they haven’t consistently faced the same level of competition that Georgia has. Given the situational edge and Georgia's ability to rise to the occasion against quality opponents, I like the Bulldogs' chances to keep this game close—or even pull off the outright upset.

Take Georgia. Projected score: Georgia 72, Missouri 69.

02-15-25 Gardner-Webb -5 v. USC Upstate Top 96-87 Win 100 17 h 9 m Show

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02-15-25 College of Charleston -8 v. North Carolina A&T Top 69-59 Win 100 17 h 39 m Show

CAA Game of the Year. My selection is on College of Charleston minus the points over North Carolina A&T at 2 pm ET on Saturday.

I'll lay the points with the Cougars as they look to bounce back from a lopsided loss at NC-Wilmington on Thursday. That defeat halted a brief two-game winning streak, but I expect them to respond in a favorable matchup against a North Carolina A&T squad that has been playing above its level recently.

These two teams met just last week in a game that was tighter than expected, with Charleston winning by three but failing to cover as a massive 17-point favorite. That result should work in our favor here, as it ensures Charleston won’t take this rematch lightly. The Cougars have played a significantly tougher schedule and own the far superior overall record, which should shine through in this one.

Meanwhile, North Carolina A&T is riding high after three consecutive ATS wins, including an outright upset at Elon on Thursday. Given that recent success, I see a letdown coming here against a superior opponent.

Take College of Charleston. Projected score: College of Charleston 82, North Carolina A&T 65.

02-13-25 James Madison -3.5 v. Georgia Southern Top 77-72 Win 100 11 h 9 m Show

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on James Madison minus the points over Georgia Southern at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

We'll lay the points with James Madison as it looks to rebound from an 'upset' road loss against Toledo on Saturday, which snapped its five-game winning streak. The Dukes have been the stronger team this season, owning the better overall record while also facing a considerably tougher schedule than Georgia Southern.

Meanwhile, Georgia Southern enters fresh off an 'upset' road win over Western Michigan on Saturday. That victory gave the Eagles consecutive wins, but they have yet to string together more than three in a row all season. It's worth noting that their win over Western Michigan only served to end a two-game ATS losing streak.

Look for James Madison to assert its dominance and roll to a decisive victory.

Take James Madison. Projected score: James Madison 80, Georgia Southern 70.

02-13-25 North Florida +9 v. North Alabama Top 70-83 Loss -118 11 h 2 m Show

Atlantic Sun Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on North Florida plus the points over North Alabama at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

We'll take the points with North Florida as it looks to avenge an earlier home loss against North Alabama. While North Alabama boasts the better overall record this season, it has done so against a significantly weaker schedule compared to North Florida. The Ospreys have proven their ability to rise to the occasion, securing outright road wins over South Carolina and Georgia Tech earlier in the season.

North Florida enters this matchup looking to rebound from consecutive ATS defeats, including an outright home loss to Florida Gulf Coast on Saturday. Prior to that, it had won three straight games. Meanwhile, North Alabama is riding a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS, but that run has come against relatively weak competition. The Lions are coming off a successful two-game road sweep against Austin Peay and West Georgia, where they were favored in both contests. This feels like a prime letdown spot for them.

Look for North Florida to keep this one tight, if not pull off the outright upset.

Take North Florida. Projected score: North Alabama 74, North Florida 72.

02-12-25 Suns v. Rockets OVER 223 Top 111-119 Win 100 13 h 48 m Show

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Houston at 8:40 pm ET on Wednesday.

Both teams enter this contest on two-game 'under' streaks, but I expect a shift toward a higher-scoring affair. The Suns are coming off their second straight loss, falling 119-112 at home to the Grizzlies last night. A big reason for Phoenix’s struggles has been its porous defense, allowing four consecutive opponents to attempt at least 92 field goals. The Suns have also given up 40 or more made field goals in 16 of their last 18 games, with their last four foes connecting on 52, 48, 45, and 43 shots from the field.

That defensive vulnerability sets up a prime bounce-back spot for a rested and favored Houston squad. The Rockets struggled offensively in a sluggish 94-87 matinee victory over Toronto on Sunday, shooting just 31-for-86 from the field. However, they showed their ability to push the pace in their previous outing, hoisting up 100 shot attempts against the Mavericks. Two of Houston’s last three opponents have attempted 90 or more field goals, paving the way for an up-tempo battle on Wednesday.

Take the over. Projected score: Houston 118, Phoenix 114.

02-11-25 Raptors v. 76ers -8.5 Top 106-103 Loss -110 12 h 32 m Show

Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Toronto at 7:10 pm ET on Tuesday.

We'll lay the points with the 76ers as they look to snap their three-game SU and four-game ATS losing streaks at home against their division rival. Philadelphia has been caught up in consecutive high-paced matchups on the road against Detroit and Milwaukee but should be able to dictate the tempo in this contest against an inferior Toronto squad.

The Raptors have dropped four straight games but have managed to cover the spread in their last two. However, that doesn’t mean they’re playing well—they’ve made fewer than 40 field goals in three straight contests, highlighting their offensive struggles. Expect Philadelphia to take control early and roll to a double-digit victory.

Take Philadelphia. Projected score: Philadelphia 119, Toronto 102.

02-11-25 Buffalo +2 v. Northern Illinois Top 73-67 Win 100 11 h 36 m Show

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Northern Illinois at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

We'll take the points with Buffalo as it looks to snap a three-game losing streak, both SU and ATS, on the road against Northern Illinois. While the Bulls have had a disappointing season, they actually own the slightly better overall record in this matchup and have faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. With four of their next six games at home, this could be a key turning point for them.

Northern Illinois, meanwhile, has dropped four straight games, including two in a row ATS. With three of its next four games coming on the road, there’s little reason to expect a turnaround. While the Huskies did put together a five-game ATS winning streak from January 18th to February 1st, they’ve otherwise struggled against the spread, posting a 4-11 ATS mark outside of that stretch. Expect Buffalo to take advantage and stage the minor upset.

Take Buffalo. Projected score: Buffalo 76, Northern Illinois 73.

02-10-25 Southern v. Alabama State +3 Top 81-82 Win 100 11 h 40 m Show

SWAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Alabama State plus the points over Southern at 7 pm ET on Monday.

We'll grab the points with Alabama State as it hosts Southern in this conference matchup. While Southern owns the better overall record, Alabama State has faced a considerably tougher schedule this season.

The Hornets enter this game on a nine-game ATS losing streak (depending on closing numbers) and are coming off a home upset loss to Grambling on Saturday. This sets up a prime bounce-back opportunity before they hit the road for consecutive games. Meanwhile, Southern has been rolling, winning 10 straight games, including an ATS victory over Alabama A&M on Saturday. With back-to-back home games on deck after this contest, the Jaguars could be caught looking ahead.

Take Alabama State. Projected score: Alabama State 70, Southern 68.

02-09-25 Arizona State +1.5 v. Oklahoma State Top 73-86 Loss -110 6 h 53 m Show

Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Arizona State plus the points over Oklahoma State at 2 pm et on Sunday.

Arizona State enters this matchup off a tough 0-2 homestand, suffering losses to Arizona and Kansas State. While those results were disappointing, both opponents presented significant challenges, and I expect the Sun Devils to respond in a more favorable matchup against Oklahoma State. Not only does Arizona State hold the slightly better overall record, but it has also faced a much tougher schedule to this point. That battle-tested experience should serve them well as they hit the road, looking to get back on track against an inconsistent Cowboys squad.

Oklahoma State has put together consecutive ATS victories but remains just 3-8 SU over its last 11 games. The Cowboys fell to Houston in their most recent contest, and while they've shown flashes of improved play, they’ve been a tough team to trust, going just 5-9 ATS in their last 14 outings. Their struggles against quality competition suggest they could have a difficult time extending their ATS success against an Arizona State team that should be eager to bounce back after its loss to Kansas State.

With Arizona State's defensive intensity and ability to push the tempo, I like the Sun Devils to keep this one competitive throughout and potentially pull off the outright upset.

Take Arizona State. Projected score: Arizona State 70, Oklahoma State 68.

02-08-25 Hawaii +5.5 v. UC-Santa Barbara Top 72-76 Win 100 25 h 11 m Show

Big West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Hawaii plus the points over UCSB at 10 pm ET on Saturday.

We'll take the underdog Warriors as they look to rebound from an 'upset' loss at Cal Poly on Thursday. That setback came on the heels of a blowout win over Cal State-Fullerton, suggesting a bit of a letdown may have been in play. Despite the loss, Hawaii has faced a tougher schedule than UCSB this season, and their overall records remain fairly close, with the Gauchos holding only a slight edge.

UCSB enters this matchup riding a two-game SU and ATS winning streak, including a road victory over Cal State-Bakersfield on Thursday. However, this game should be tightly contested, with Hawaii likely to push the Gauchos to the wire.

Take Hawaii. Projected score: UCSB 72, Hawaii 71.

02-08-25 Texas A&M +4.5 v. Missouri Top 67-64 Win 100 19 h 3 m Show

SEC Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas A&M plus the points over Missouri at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams share identical overall records, Texas A&M has faced the far tougher schedule. The Aggies enter this contest off consecutive ATS losses, but they actually won both of those games outright. Meanwhile, Missouri has strung together three straight ATS victories, including a competitive showing in a loss at Tennessee on Wednesday.

With the Aggies' defensive intensity and ability to grind out wins, I expect them to challenge for the outright victory in this one.

Take Texas A&M. Projected score: Texas A&M 74, Missouri 72.

02-08-25 Rockets +3.5 v. Mavs Top 105-116 Loss -108 5 h 58 m Show

Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Dallas at 3 pm ET on Saturday.

The Rockets have hit a rough patch, dropping five straight games, including back-to-back ATS losses. However, despite their current struggles, they remain a solid road team with a 17-11 SU and ATS record away from home. I expect them to show up here, motivated to snap their skid against a familiar division foe.

Dallas has responded well in the wake of the Luka Doncic trade, picking up consecutive ATS wins, including an impressive road victory in Boston on Thursday. However, this sets up as a potential letdown spot against a Houston squad that already proved it can win on this floor, having defeated the Mavs in Dallas on Halloween Night.

Look for the Rockets to keep this one tight.

Take Houston. Projected score: Houston 113, Dallas 110.

02-08-25 Seton Hall +10.5 v. Georgetown Top 46-60 Loss -108 16 h 51 m Show

Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Seton Hall plus the points over Georgetown at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

Seton Hall has endured a difficult season, sitting at just 6-17 overall while riding an eight-game losing streak, including five ATS defeats in its last six contests. However, this is a prime opportunity for the Pirates to get back on track against a similarly struggling Georgetown squad.

The Hoyas may have covered the spread in their last game against Xavier, but they still came up short in the win column. Overall, Georgetown is just 2-7 SU over its last nine games and has covered the spread only three times in its last eight outings. With both teams struggling, I expect Seton Hall to keep this game competitive and stay inside the number.

Take Seton Hall. Projected score: Georgetown 72, Seton Hall 69.

02-06-25 Pacers v. Clippers OVER 227.5 Top 119-112 Win 100 15 h 31 m Show

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm ET on Thursday.

We'll call for a high-scoring affair as the Pacers look to bounce back from a shocking blowout loss in Portland, while the Clippers aim to avoid a third straight defeat after falling to the rival Lakers on Tuesday.

Despite the 'under' cashing in Indiana's last two games, the Pacers continue to push the tempo, allowing four straight and eight of their last nine opponents to attempt at least 89 field goals. They've also surrendered 40+ made field goals in three of their last four contests.

Meanwhile, the Clippers have struggled defensively, allowing four consecutive opponents to hit 42 or more shots from the field. Indiana’s offense should benefit in this spot after seeing its streak of six straight games making 43+ field goals halted against Portland in a tough back-to-back situation.

Expect plenty of scoring in this non-conference matchup.

Take the 'over'. Projected score: Indiana 121, Los Angeles 118.

02-06-25 Long Island +1.5 v. Wagner Top 60-47 Win 100 10 h 20 m Show

NEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Long Island plus the points over Wagner at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

We'll back Long Island as it looks to snap its four-game SU and ATS losing streak on the road against conference rival Wagner. While Wagner is coming off a double-digit win and cover against Le Moyne, it's worth noting that the Seahawks have faced one of the weakest schedules in the country this season and have still only managed a 12-10 SU record.

Long Island, meanwhile, is in desperate need of a bounce-back effort following an 'upset' road loss against Chicago State on Saturday. Before its current slide, LIU had reeled off six straight wins SU and seven in a row ATS, proving it’s capable of a strong showing. This is a key opportunity for the Sharks to salvage something from their two-game road trip before returning home for a pair of winnable matchups.

Meanwhile, Wagner could be caught looking ahead to the start of a two-game road swing on Saturday at Fairleigh Dickinson.

Take Long Island. Projected score: Long Island 69, Wagner 65.

02-05-25 Magic +5.5 v. Kings Top 130-111 Win 100 14 h 57 m Show

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Sacramento at 10 pm ET on Wednesday.

Despite their recent struggles, I like the way this game sets up for the Magic. They've dropped four straight games both SU and ATS, but they've had a day off following a tough battle with the Warriors on Monday. With a looming back-to-back in Denver on Thursday, expect them to give everything they have in this spot.

Sacramento snapped a two-game skid with an 'upset' victory over Minnesota on Monday but has been inconsistent, going just 2-4 SU over its last six games and 2-5 ATS over its last seven. The Kings have also failed to post back-to-back ATS victories since mid-January, highlighting their inconsistency.

I look for Orlando to put together a complete effort and potentially steal this one outright.

Take Orlando. Projected score: Orlando 112, Sacramento 109.

02-04-25 Utah State -8.5 v. Wyoming Top 71-67 Loss -108 12 h 18 m Show

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Wyoming at 8:30 pm ET on Tuesday.

I'll back the Aggies as they look to bounce back from Saturday's home loss against New Mexico. That defeat snapped a three-game winning streak and marked just their third loss in their last 11 games. Utah State has performed at a much higher level than Wyoming this season, posting a 19-3 SU record compared to the Cowboys' 11-11 mark, despite both teams facing similar strength of schedules.

Wyoming is coming off a loss at San Diego State but has managed back-to-back ATS wins. That said, the Cowboys are still just 4-5 ATS over their last nine games and will have a tough time keeping pace with an Aggies squad eager to respond after a rare home defeat. Expect Utah State to assert itself and pull away for a convincing win.

Take Utah State. Projected score: Utah State 80, Wyoming 65.

02-03-25 Wizards v. Hornets -4 Top 124-114 Loss -108 11 h 18 m Show

Southeast Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm ET on Monday.

The Wizards managed a surprising upset win in Minnesota on Saturday, snapping a brutal losing streak that dated back to January 1st. However, winning isn't really in their best interest at this point, as they remain in full-on tank mode for a high draft pick. I expect them to revert to their losing ways on Monday as they head to Charlotte.

The Hornets are mired in a four-game losing streak but have shown signs of life, covering the spread in consecutive games. Despite dropping both previous meetings with Washington this season—both coming in a short span back in December—Charlotte is in a good position to respond at home here. Given their recent ATS performances and the Wizards' general lack of competitiveness, I'll lay the points with the Hornets.

Take Charlotte. Projected score: Charlotte 116, Washington 105.

02-01-25 Michigan State v. USC +4.5 Top 64-70 Win 100 6 h 5 m Show

Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on USC plus the points over Michigan State at 4:30 pm ET on Saturday.

Michigan State has been rolling with 13 consecutive victories and an 18-2 overall record, but I believe this is a tricky spot for the Spartans. They’ve also covered in back-to-back games, which makes this a potential letdown situation. USC, meanwhile, comes off an 82-76 loss to rival UCLA but has consistently bounced back well, having not lost consecutive games since early January.

While the Trojans have the inferior overall record, they’ve navigated a more challenging schedule, and their battle-tested nature should serve them well here. Look for USC to put up a strong fight and keep this one close throughout.

Take USC. Projected score: Michigan State 74, USC 73.

02-01-25 Missouri v. Mississippi State -5.5 Top 88-61 Loss -110 16 h 37 m Show

SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Missouri at 1 pm ET on Saturday.

Mississippi State has struggled to cover the spread lately, dropping six straight ATS decisions, but this matchup presents a prime opportunity to turn things around. The Bulldogs are coming off a narrow 88-84 home loss to Alabama in a game where they were highly competitive against one of the conference’s top teams. That performance suggests they are capable of bouncing back strong, especially against a Missouri squad that has been inconsistent this season.

Missouri enters this contest fresh off a home win over Ole Miss last Saturday, but it has faced a softer schedule compared to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have been tested against higher-caliber opponents, which should help them control this matchup on both ends of the floor. Look for Mississippi State to break its ATS slump and pick up a convincing victory.

Take Mississippi State. Projected score: Mississippi State 76, Missouri 64.

01-31-25 Dayton -1 v. St. Louis Top 71-63 Win 100 11 h 3 m Show

Atlantic-10 Game of the Week. My selection is on Dayton minus the points over Saint Louis at 7 pm et on Friday.

Dayton comes into this matchup looking to bounce back following a lopsided 22-point loss to St. Bonaventure earlier in the week. That surprising defeat should serve as motivation for the Flyers, who remain one of the stronger teams in the conference. Despite the setback, Dayton still owns a slightly better overall record than Saint Louis, with the key difference being that the Flyers have faced a significantly tougher schedule by most metrics.

Saint Louis, meanwhile, is coming off an emotional upset victory over VCU on Tuesday. While the Billikens deserve credit for that performance, they’ve been inconsistent of late, covering the spread in just two of their last five games. A potential letdown looms here, especially against a Dayton squad that will be eager to put its previous loss in the rearview mirror. Expect the Flyers to control this game and come away with a convincing victory.

Take Dayton. Projected score: Dayton 78, Saint Louis 65.

01-29-25 Bulls v. Celtics -14.5 Top 100-122 Win 100 11 h 29 m Show

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Chicago at 7:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

We'll back the Celtics to bounce back after a tough last-second 114-112 home loss against Houston on Monday. Boston hasn't lost consecutive games since late December, and I expect a strong response in this favorable spot.

Chicago, meanwhile, is coming off an impressive upset win over Denver but has still gone just 2-7 SU and ATS over its last nine contests. Notably, the SU winner has covered the spread in 20 consecutive games involving the Bulls. With Boston eager to get back in the win column before embarking on a three-game road trip, look for the Celtics to dominate from start to finish.

Take Boston. Projected score: Boston 120, Chicago 102.

01-28-25 Providence v. Seton Hall +4 Top 69-67 Win 100 11 h 12 m Show

Big East Game of the Week. My selection is on Seton Hall plus the points over Providence at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

Seton Hall will be eager to end its five-game losing streak and three-game ATS slide in this home matchup against Providence. While the Pirates have struggled in recent weeks, they've endured a significantly tougher schedule compared to the Friars, which should have them battle-tested for this Big East clash.

Providence enters this game fresh off a 78-68 home win against Georgetown, snapping a two-game losing streak. Despite the win, the Friars have shown inconsistency this season, holding a mediocre 10-10 record after opening the campaign with a promising 5-0 start. On the road, they've struggled to build momentum, making them vulnerable in this spot.

Seton Hall's record might not stand out, but playing at home gives the Pirates a prime opportunity to turn things around. Look for this one to be closely contested, with the Pirates having a legitimate shot at the outright victory.

Take Seton Hall. Projected score: Seton Hall 69, Providence 67.

01-28-25 Kentucky +9.5 v. Tennessee Top 78-73 Win 100 11 h 5 m Show

SEC Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Tennessee at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

Kentucky heads into this matchup looking to shake off back-to-back losses both SU and ATS, including a surprising defeat at Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Wildcats are now 14-5 on the season but remain a dangerous opponent, particularly as they look to rise to the occasion in this challenging road test against sixth-ranked Tennessee.

The Volunteers, despite their lofty ranking, are coming off a narrow two-point loss at Auburn on Saturday in which they managed to cover the spread. That marked their second straight ATS win, but it also highlighted their tendency to play in close contests against tough opponents.

While Tennessee has been impressive overall this season, the number of points they're laying here against a motivated and capable Kentucky squad feels excessive. The Wildcats have the talent to keep this game competitive and even threaten for an outright upset.

Take Kentucky. Projected score: Tennessee 73, Kentucky 70.

01-27-25 Texas Southern v. Alabama State -2 Top 80-69 Loss -110 12 h 17 m Show

SWAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Alabama State minus the points over Texas Southern at 8:30 pm ET on Monday.

Texas Southern enters this matchup riding a five-game winning streak, most recently securing an 82-78 victory (but failing to cover) on the road against Alabama A&M on Saturday. Despite its recent success, Texas Southern is just 5-11 ATS in lined games this season, including a 3-8 ATS mark on the road.

Alabama State, meanwhile, has picked up consecutive straight-up victories but is mired in a five-game ATS losing streak. Despite both teams owning identical 8-11 overall records, Alabama State has navigated a more challenging schedule, having faced road tests against programs like UNLV, LSU, Cincinnati, SMU, and Missouri.

With Texas Southern potentially looking ahead to its upcoming home matchup against Prairie View A&M and Alabama State aiming to build momentum before back-to-back road games, the Hornets are in a strong spot to snap their ATS skid and deliver a cover in this contest.

Take Alabama State. Projected score: Alabama State 74, Texas Southern 65.

01-27-25 Rockets v. Celtics UNDER 222.5 Top 114-112 Loss -110 11 h 13 m Show

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Boston at 7:30 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams come into this game off higher-scoring results on Saturday, but I expect the script to shift as they meet in Boston. This is the second and final regular season meeting between these teams, with the first matchup on January 3rd producing just 195 total points in a Celtics blowout victory in Houston. Notably, Boston shot exceptionally well in that game, hitting 39-of-77 from the field, a performance that may not repeat itself here.

The Rockets have regained their defensive edge recently, holding three of their last four opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Similarly, Boston has held opponents to 42 or fewer field goals in its last four games. Meanwhile, the Celtics have topped out at 44 made field goals in 11 of their last 12 games. Houston's offensive output has also dipped lately, as the Rockets have made just 37, 40, and 45 field goals over their last three contests after a stretch where they knocked down 48, 49, and 49.

Expect a slower pace and a focus on defense in this clash.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Boston 110, Houston 103.

01-26-25 Northwestern v. Illinois -7.5 Top 74-83 Win 100 6 h 6 m Show

Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on Illinois minus the points over Northwestern at 3 pm ET on Sunday.

This is a strong bounce-back spot for Illinois as it looks to avenge a prior road loss to Northwestern earlier this season. The Illini enter this matchup motivated to rebound from back-to-back losses, including a disappointing 91-70 defeat at Maryland on Thursday. Playing on their home floor provides an opportunity to turn things around.

Northwestern comes in with some momentum, riding a three-game ATS winning streak, including a 79-70 home victory over Indiana on Wednesday. However, Illinois not only boasts a slightly better overall record but has also been tested by a tougher schedule, which should help them in this spot.

Expect the Illini to take control of this game early and secure a comfortable double-digit victory.

Take Illinois. Projected score: Illinois 82, Northwestern 68.

01-25-25 Cincinnati +7 v. BYU Top 52-80 Loss -110 14 h 28 m Show

Big 12 Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over BYU at 10 pm ET on Saturday.

Cincinnati enters this matchup looking to bounce back after a rough stretch that included a non-cover against Arizona State last Saturday followed by a double-digit home loss to Texas Tech on Tuesday. Despite those setbacks, this is a good spot for the Bearcats to respond, particularly as they hit the road to face BYU.

The Cougars are coming off an impressive blowout win and cover at Colorado on Tuesday, but recent consistency has been an issue for BYU, as they are just 2-4 SU and ATS over their last six games. While BYU has shown flashes of dominance, their recent form suggests vulnerability, especially against a battle-tested opponent.

Cincinnati has faced a tougher schedule than BYU this season, which should prepare them well for what figures to be a competitive and tightly-fought contest in Provo. With both teams holding identical overall records, the Bearcats' experience against stronger competition could be the difference in keeping this one close.

Take Cincinnati. Projected score: BYU 74, Cincinnati 73.

01-25-25 Kennesaw State v. UTEP -3.5 Top 71-73 Loss -110 13 h 40 m Show

C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on UTEP minus the points over Kennesaw State at 9 pm ET on Saturday.

UTEP enters this matchup looking to bounce back from a surprising upset loss at home against Jacksonville State on Thursday. That defeat should serve as a wake-up call for a Miners team that has otherwise enjoyed a solid season with a 14-5 overall record. This is a critical spot for UTEP as it aims to regain its momentum before embarking on a challenging three-game road trip.

Kennesaw State, on the other hand, is riding high following three straight wins, all of which have come in upset fashion, including a statement victory over New Mexico State on the road. While the Owls are on a hot streak, this contest presents a difficult turnaround as they face a well-rounded UTEP team that has been tough to beat on its home floor.

While both teams have faced comparable schedules this season, UTEP has displayed more consistency and resilience. The Miners' ability to handle adversity, combined with Kennesaw State's potential to look ahead to an upcoming four-game homestand, makes this an ideal spot for UTEP to secure a decisive victory.

Take UTEP. Projected score: UTEP 76, Kennesaw State 64.

01-25-25 Georgetown v. Providence -1.5 Top 68-78 Win 100 5 h 12 m Show

Big East Game of the Week. My selection is on Providence minus the points over Georgetown at 12:30 pm ET on Saturday.

Providence finds itself in a bounce-back spot after dropping both games on its recent road trip. With a full week to regroup, the Friars are well-positioned to respond with a strong performance as they return home. This game carries added importance for Providence, knowing it faces two challenging road matchups against Seton Hall and St. John’s next.

Georgetown is coming off a hard-fought upset victory over Villanova on Monday, snapping its four-game losing streak. However, that win doesn’t overshadow the Hoyas’ inconsistencies this season. While Georgetown has the better overall record, Providence has navigated a significantly tougher schedule and is the more battle-tested squad.

With the Friars eager to turn the tide and take advantage of this home spot, I expect them to pull away for a convincing win.

Take Providence. Projected score: Providence 74, Georgetown 65.

01-23-25 Blazers v. Magic -8 Top 101-79 Loss -112 11 h 56 m Show

Non-Conference Favorite of the Month. My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Portland at 7 pm et on Thursday.

The Magic are in need of a bounce-back after dropping four straight SU and ATS, but this matchup against the Trail Blazers presents the perfect opportunity to get back on track. Despite their recent struggles, Orlando remains 23-22 on the season and has been competitive throughout. Returning home after a tough loss to a motivated Raptors squad, the Magic will be eager to capitalize on this winnable two-game homestand.

Portland has shown some life recently, recording back-to-back upset wins, but those victories followed a five-game SU losing streak and a four-game ATS skid. The Trail Blazers are just 15-28 overall and remain vulnerable, especially on the road against a team like Orlando that has shown it can dominate weaker opponents.

Take Orlando. Projected score: Magic 117, Trail Blazers 103.

01-23-25 Merrimack -1 v. St. Peter's Top 48-37 Win 100 10 h 18 m Show

MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Merrimack minus the points over St. Peter's at 7 pm et on Thursday.

We'll back Merrimack as it looks to continue its solid season with a win and cover on the road. While Merrimack comes off a win but a non-cover at home against Siena on Saturday, it has faced a significantly tougher schedule than St. Peter's this season. Despite dropping the cash in four straight games, Merrimack remains the more consistent and reliable team in this matchup.

St. Peter's, on the other hand, is fresh off an 'upset' road win over Sacred Heart on Saturday but has struggled to build momentum, going just 2-3 SU and ATS over its last five games. The Peacocks have yet to prove they can string together strong performances, and this matchup presents a challenging test.

Look for Merrimack to control the game and secure a comfortable victory.

Take Merrimack. Projected score: Merrimack 66, St. Peter's 58.

01-22-25 Lafayette +2 v. Loyola Maryland Top 80-59 Win 100 10 h 54 m Show

Patriot League Game of the Month. My selection is on Lafayette plus the points over Loyola-Maryland at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Lafayette heads into this Patriot League matchup looking to halt a two-game SU and ATS slide. Despite the recent setbacks, the Leopards have shown resilience, with their last three road losses coming by a combined margin of just six points. Notably, Lafayette has faced a tougher overall schedule than Loyola-Maryland, which provides added confidence in their ability to keep this game close.

Meanwhile, Loyola-Maryland comes off an impressive road win over Lehigh on Saturday. However, consistency has been elusive for the Greyhounds, as they’ve managed to win back-to-back games only twice all season, with the last instance occurring in late November. At home, they’ve been less than dominant, posting a modest 4-3 SU record and a shaky 2-4 ATS mark in lined contests.

With Lafayette’s ability to stay competitive on the road and Loyola-Maryland’s inconsistency, I expect the Leopards to deliver a strong performance and cover the spread.

Take Lafayette. Projected score: Lafayette 65, Loyola-Maryland 63.

01-21-25 Knicks v. Nets +11.5 Top 99-95 Win 100 11 h 46 m Show

Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over New York at 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday.

The Knicks secured a win and cover yesterday afternoon against the Nets but have struggled with consistency, alternating wins and losses over their last six games while posting a 2-4 ATS mark during that stretch.

Brooklyn enters this matchup with double-revenge motivation after dropping two meetings in Manhattan earlier this season (going 1-1 ATS in those contests). While the Nets just wrapped up a tough 1-5 road trip, they managed to go 3-3 ATS and now return home, where they should perform better. Additionally, Brooklyn has faced one of the league's toughest schedules this season, a challenge far greater than what the Knicks have encountered.

While the Nets are on a back-to-back with a game against the Suns looming tomorrow, the Knicks may already be looking ahead to a favorable five-game homestand starting Saturday. With those dynamics in play, the Nets are well-positioned to keep this game close, if not secure an outright victory.

Take Brooklyn. Projected score: New York 109, Brooklyn 106.

01-21-25 Bowling Green +10.5 v. Miami-OH Top 76-84 Win 100 11 h 6 m Show

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Bowling Green plus the points over Miami-Ohio at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

We'll take the points with underdog Bowling Green as it travels to face Miami-Ohio in a MAC matchup. The Falcons come off a disappointing home loss to Eastern Michigan on Saturday, continuing a pattern of alternating wins and losses over their last six games. However, they've shown value at the betting window, going 3-2 ATS in lined contests during that stretch. Notably, Bowling Green has faced a tougher schedule than Miami-Ohio this season, which should help them in this spot.

Miami-Ohio enters riding a seven-game winning streak, covering the spread in six straight contests. While the Redhawks have been impressive, their ATS streak feels unsustainable, especially as they’re now laying significant points against a resilient Bowling Green team. The Falcons have proven they can hang tough against quality competition, including ATS covers against Michigan State and New Mexico State, winning outright in the latter game.

Look for Bowling Green to make this a closer game than the oddsmakers expect.

Take Bowling Green. Projected score: Miami-Ohio 72, Bowling Green 69.

01-18-25 Arizona State +9.5 v. Cincinnati Top 60-67 Win 100 18 h 34 m Show

Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Arizona State plus the points over Cincinnati at 2 pm ET on Saturday.

Arizona State may be on a three-game slide, but that stretch has come against quality opponents, reflecting the far tougher schedule the Sun Devils have faced compared to Cincinnati this season. Despite an ATS loss to Central Florida earlier this week, Arizona State remains a resilient squad with the tools to bounce back in this spot.

Cincinnati comes into this matchup riding high after snapping a four-game losing streak with a win and cover against Colorado on Wednesday. However, that result could set up a potential letdown as the Bearcats face another challenge just three days later.

Given Arizona State’s ability to compete against stronger competition and Cincinnati’s inconsistency, this contest has all the makings of a closely fought game. Look for the Sun Devils to keep things tight from start to finish.

Take Arizona State. Projected score: Cincinnati 70, Arizona State 68.

01-17-25 Grizzlies v. Spurs UNDER 239.5 Top 140-112 Loss -115 14 h 0 m Show

Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and San Antonio at 9:40 pm ET on Friday.

While both teams are coming off high-scoring performances and have trended toward the 'over' in recent games, I anticipate a shift in pace and defensive intensity in this rematch. Memphis, despite its recent stretch of 'over' results, has shown defensive consistency by holding four of its last five opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. That defensive capability will likely come into play here.

Additionally, San Antonio, which has struggled defensively in stretches, is capable of tightening up. The Spurs had held nine of their previous 11 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals before Wednesday’s game. That poor showing defensively likely serves as a wake-up call as they aim to limit Memphis’ shooting efficiency, which was an unsustainable 51-for-103 in the last meeting.

Expect both teams to make adjustments and this game to trend lower-scoring compared to their recent clash.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Memphis 115, San Antonio 106.

01-16-25 Rutgers v. Nebraska -9 Top 85-82 Loss -108 12 h 34 m Show

Big Ten Favorite of the Month. My selection is on Nebraska minus the points over Rutgers at 9 pm ET on Thursday.

We'll back Nebraska as it looks to bounce back in a favorable spot at home following a tough two-game skid, including a blowout loss at Purdue on Sunday. Despite the recent struggles, the Cornhuskers boast a solid 12-4 straight-up record this season and have shown the ability to respond well in situations like this, particularly on their home court.

Rutgers, meanwhile, is coming off a noteworthy 'upset' win over UCLA at home on Monday. While impressive on the surface, that victory merely snapped a three-game losing streak both straight-up and against the spread. The Scarlet Knights have been inconsistent this season and now find themselves in a challenging road environment, where their performance has often dipped.

Look for Nebraska to regroup, seize control of this game, and deliver a strong performance to cover the spread.

Take Nebraska. Projected score: Nebraska 79, Rutgers 65.

01-15-25 Texas v. Oklahoma -2.5 Top 77-73 Loss -110 14 h 55 m Show

SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Texas at 10 pm ET on Wednesday.

We'll back the Sooners as they aim to snap their three-game losing streak and five-game ATS slide in a key rivalry matchup against Texas. Despite Oklahoma's recent struggles, it has faced a more challenging schedule than Texas and still holds the better overall record.

The Longhorns also enter this contest on a three-game skid but have covered the spread in their last two games, both competitive home matchups against Auburn and Tennessee. However, this game presents a tougher challenge as they hit the road, where they've played just two true road games this season—beating N.C. State as a favorite and losing by 20 points as an underdog at Texas A&M.

In the hostile environment of Norman, I expect the Longhorns to falter while the Sooners take advantage of the opportunity to regain their footing.

Take Oklahoma. Projected score: Oklahoma 71, Texas 64.

01-15-25 Seton Hall v. Butler -6.5 Top 77-82 Loss -105 10 h 22 m Show

Big East Game of the Year. My selection is on Butler minus the points over Seton Hall at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

Despite Butler’s recent struggles, entering this game on a nine-game losing streak and two consecutive ATS defeats, the Bulldogs have faced a much tougher schedule than Seton Hall. This will be a prime spot for Butler to bounce back and end their skid before heading on the road for a tough matchup with Connecticut.

Seton Hall has been solid recently with two straight ATS wins, but they suffered a six-point loss at Providence on Saturday. With back-to-back home games against St. John's and Marquette on the horizon, the Pirates might be looking ahead, which bodes well for Butler.

Butler should be motivated to right the ship in front of their home crowd. Expect the Bulldogs to cover the spread with a much-needed win.

Take Butler. Projected score: Butler 76, Seton Hall 64.

01-14-25 Nuggets v. Mavs +4.5 Top 118-99 Loss -110 14 h 18 m Show

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Denver at 9:40 pm ET on Tuesday.

The Mavericks find themselves in a quick rematch situation after dropping a 112-101 decision at home against the Nuggets on Sunday. While Denver is riding a three-game SU and ATS winning streak, it’s worth noting that its road form has been inconsistent this season, evidenced by a 9-10 ATS mark away from home. The Nuggets are due for some regression in what could be a flat spot after a strong stretch of performances.

Dallas, on the other hand, will be eager to respond and capitalize on its familiarity with Denver after Sunday’s game. The Mavs’ ability to adjust defensively and create better offensive opportunities will be key as they look to halt the Nuggets' momentum. Given the circumstances, I expect a strong effort from Dallas to keep this one tight and possibly steal the win.

Take Dallas. Projected score: Dallas 111, Denver 109.

01-14-25 Ohio State +7 v. Wisconsin Top 68-70 Win 100 13 h 22 m Show

Big Ten Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio State plus the points over Wisconsin at 9 pm ET on Tuesday.

Ohio State has faced a challenging schedule this season, reflected in its 10-6 record. The Buckeyes are coming off a disappointing home loss to a strong Oregon team on Saturday, marking their third straight ATS defeat. This provides added motivation for them to bounce back on Tuesday night. Despite their recent struggles, Ohio State has the talent and depth to compete against a Wisconsin squad that has been riding high with five straight wins SU and three consecutive ATS covers.

The Badgers boast a 13-3 record but have not faced the same level of competition as the Buckeyes. With a two-game road trip to Los Angeles looming, there’s a potential for Wisconsin to be caught looking ahead. Expect Ohio State to come out with urgency and keep this one close, potentially pulling off the upset.

Take Ohio State. Projected score: Wisconsin 69, Ohio State 67.

01-09-25 Cal Poly +15.5 v. UC San Diego Top 68-95 Loss -110 14 h 49 m Show

Big West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Cal Poly plus the points over UC-San Diego at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Cal Poly enters this matchup in desperate need of a turnaround, having lost seven consecutive games against the spread. At 6-10 SU on the season, the Mustangs haven’t delivered consistent results, but this represents a spot where they could surprise as an underdog. Their schedule has been notably tougher than that of UC-San Diego, which has benefited from a favorable slate on its way to a sparkling 13-2 SU record.

UC-San Diego is riding high on an 11-game winning streak, but it’s worth noting that many of those victories came against weaker competition. The Tritons’ most recent outing, a dominant cover as a double-digit road favorite against Cal State-Fullerton, could set them up for a letdown as they return home on Thursday. Cal Poly has the potential to keep this game competitive, especially if UC-San Diego shows any signs of complacency.

Take Cal Poly. Projected score: UC-San Diego 72, Cal Poly 65.

01-08-25 Bulls v. Pacers OVER 240 Top 113-129 Win 100 11 h 18 m Show

Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Indiana at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

Both teams enter this contest having leaned toward lower-scoring games in recent outings, but the underlying dynamics point to a high-tempo, high-scoring affair. Chicago is coming off an 'under' result in an impressive 'upset' win over San Antonio on Monday. However, the Bulls have struggled defensively, allowing six consecutive opponents to convert on more than 40 field goals and three straight to make 44 or more. Adding to the defensive woes, Chicago has allowed 95+ field goal attempts in five straight games, signaling an inability—or unwillingness—to slow the pace.

Indiana has also recorded consecutive 'under' results, including a 113-99 victory over Brooklyn on Monday. Despite this, the Pacers' recent games have featured plenty of opportunities for opposing offenses. Five of Indiana’s last seven opponents have attempted at least 92 field goals, and six of those opponents have successfully converted more than 40 shots.

With both teams trending toward faster paces and allowing high shooting volumes, this matchup sets up as a potential track meet. Chicago's defensive struggles and Indiana's openness to high-volume games create the perfect storm for a high-scoring affair. Look for both offenses to capitalize on the lack of defensive resistance.

Take the over. Projected score: Indiana 127, Chicago 120.

01-07-25 Georgia Tech v. Syracuse Top 55-62 Win 100 11 h 34 m Show

ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Syracuse minus the points over Georgia Tech at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

Georgia Tech comes into this matchup riding a wave of momentum with three consecutive wins both SU and ATS. Despite their recent form, the Yellow Jackets are just 8-7 on the season, with their success coming against a relatively soft schedule. Facing a step up in competition on the road against Syracuse presents a much tougher challenge for a team that has yet to prove its consistency against stronger opponents.

Syracuse has struggled to a 6-8 record following back-to-back losses, both SU and ATS, including a tough road defeat in Tallahassee on Saturday. Returning home provides a crucial opportunity for the Orange to reset and right the ship before embarking on another road game against Boston College. Syracuse’s stronger overall schedule and the motivation to bounce back after recent setbacks make this a prime spot for a solid performance.

Expect Syracuse to leverage its home-court advantage and superior depth to overwhelm a Georgia Tech team that may be due for a letdown. Look for the Orange to control the tempo and cover the spread in convincing fashion.

Take Syracuse. Projected score: Syracuse 74, Georgia Tech 63.

01-06-25 Heat +4 v. Kings Top 118-123 Loss -110 15 h 35 m Show

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Sacramento at 10:10 p.m. ET on Monday.

Miami comes into this game off a disappointing 1-2 homestand, including surprising losses to Indiana and Utah. Despite those setbacks, this matchup presents a strong opportunity for the Heat to bounce back, as they face a Sacramento team in a tricky scheduling spot. Miami’s experience and discipline make them a dangerous underdog, particularly in situations where the opponent may be less than fully focused.

Sacramento enters this game riding high after a dominant blowout win over Golden State in San Francisco on Sunday, extending their winning streak to four games. However, the Kings now face the challenge of playing the second of back-to-back nights with travel. Complicating matters, this is a one-game return home before they head back on the road for a tough three-game trip starting in Boston on Friday. The circumstances make this a potential letdown spot for Sacramento, especially against a motivated Heat squad.

Expect Miami to capitalize on the Kings’ tough scheduling spot and bring a more focused effort after their recent struggles. The Heat have the tools to keep this game competitive and could very well spring the outright upset.

Take Miami. Projected score: Miami 112, Sacramento 110.

01-05-25 Kansas -5 v. UCF Top 99-48 Win 100 7 h 56 m Show

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Central Florida at 4 p.m. ET on Sunday.

Kansas comes into this game off a surprising loss to West Virginia on New Year's Eve as a double-digit favorite, a defeat that they’ll surely want to put behind them. Despite that setback, the Jayhawks have been one of the top teams in the country this season, facing a much tougher schedule compared to Central Florida. This will serve as a bounce-back opportunity for Kansas, and I expect them to respond with intensity, knowing they need to regain their momentum. They’ve proven to be the superior team in both talent and experience, and facing a team like Central Florida will give them the chance to show that.

Central Florida, on the other hand, is riding high with a six-game winning streak and three consecutive covers, but the competition they’ve faced hasn’t been nearly as difficult as Kansas. The Knights have had a nice run, but they are about to face a serious test in the Jayhawks. Kansas' ability to handle tough opponents throughout the season will be the difference here. I expect the Jayhawks to control the game from the outset and cover the spread with ease, as they are simply the more well-rounded team.

Take Kansas. Projected score: Kansas 81, Central Florida 68.

01-03-25 St. Joe's +3 v. St. Louis Top 57-73 Loss -115 12 h 47 m Show

Atlantic-10 Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Joseph's plus the points over Saint Louis at 9 pm ET on Friday.

St. Joseph’s enters this contest riding a four-game winning streak straight up, despite having dropped its last two ATS. The Hawks have navigated a tougher schedule than Saint Louis this season and still boast the better record at 10-4 SU. Their resilience and ability to compete against higher-caliber opponents should serve them well in this matchup as they look to make a statement on the road in conference play.

Saint Louis, on the other hand, comes in on a high after consecutive victories, including an emphatic 88-63 win over Fordham. While impressive, that result came against one of the weaker teams in the conference. The Billikens now face a significant step up in competition against a disciplined and battle-tested Hawks squad. Saint Louis has shown inconsistencies in maintaining focus and intensity after big wins, and this could be a prime spot for them to regress, especially against a St. Joseph’s team playing with confidence.

Look for the Hawks to keep this one competitive from start to finish, capitalizing on their momentum and experience against tougher opponents.

Take St. Joseph’s. Projected score: Hawks 74, Billikens 71.

12-30-24 Cincinnati v. Kansas State +4 Top 67-70 Win 100 7 h 17 m Show

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas State plus the points over Cincinnati at 7 pm ET on Monday.

Kansas State returns home looking to snap a three-game slide, both SU and ATS, in a key conference matchup against Cincinnati. While the Bearcats bring an impressive 10-1 record into this contest, including four straight wins, they've benefited from a lighter schedule compared to the Wildcats.

Kansas State, despite its recent struggles, has the tools to compete here. The Wildcats have been tested by tougher opposition and will be desperate to deliver a strong performance on their home court. Meanwhile, Cincinnati may be due for a letdown following back-to-back convincing wins, as maintaining such a high level of play on the road is no small task.

Expect Kansas State to rise to the occasion, leveraging home-court advantage and desperation to keep this game close and possibly pull off the upset.

Take Kansas State. Projected score: Kansas State 72, Cincinnati 69.

12-29-24 Wright State +2 v. Cleveland State Top 64-78 Loss -110 6 h 17 m Show

Horizon League Game of the Month. My selection is on Wright State plus the points over Cleveland State at 3 pm ET on Sunday.

Wright State has stumbled of late, suffering consecutive upset defeats against Youngstown State and Eastern Michigan. However, the Raiders have had ample time to regroup, with over a week since their last game. This sets up as a prime opportunity for a bounce-back effort as they hit the road to face a conference rival.

Cleveland State has strung together four straight wins, but their most recent victory came against a vastly overmatched Midway University team. Despite their recent success, the Vikings have not faced the same level of competition as Wright State this season. While Cleveland State holds a slight edge in the standings, the gap between these two squads is minimal.

Wright State's tougher schedule and the motivation to snap their skid should translate into a strong performance in this matchup. Look for the Raiders to push Cleveland State to the brink and potentially come away with the road win.

Take Wright State. Projected score: Wright State 76, Cleveland State 72.

12-28-24 Thunder v. Hornets +12.5 Top 106-94 Win 100 10 h 28 m Show

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Oklahoma City at 6:10 pm ET on Saturday.

We'll side with the struggling Hornets as they look to snap a six-game skid. Charlotte comes off a disappointing 'upset' loss in Washington on Thursday, but this matchup against Oklahoma City presents an opportunity for a much-needed bounce-back effort. While the Hornets have failed to cover in back-to-back games, they’ve shown the ability to keep contests close at home, particularly against teams on the second leg of a tough travel schedule.

The Thunder roll into town riding high on a four-game winning streak, most recently notching a hard-fought 120-114 victory in Indiana on Thursday. However, this game falls into a challenging scheduling spot, with Oklahoma City returning home tomorrow to start a five-game homestand against the Grizzlies—a potential look-ahead scenario.

Charlotte should be able to capitalize on the Thunder's lack of focus and hang within the number, buoyed by a home crowd eager to see its team end the losing streak.

Take Charlotte. Projected score: Oklahoma City 112, Charlotte 110.

12-28-24 Nevada -7.5 v. Wyoming Top 63-66 Loss -107 8 h 52 m Show

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Nevada minus the points over Wyoming at 4 pm ET on Saturday.

Nevada will be eager to get back on track following last week's upset loss to Colorado State. That setback ended a two-game winning streak for the Wolf Pack, who have faced a far tougher slate of opponents than Wyoming this season. Nevada has shown the ability to bounce back and I'm confident it will do so once again here.

Wyoming enters this matchup on a high note, riding a two-game winning streak both SU and ATS. However, it's worth noting that those victories came as a favorite, a much different dynamic than the underdog role they'll find themselves in here.

Given Nevada’s superior schedule strength and its motivation to rebound, I expect the Wolf Pack to control this game from start to finish, covering the spread in the process.

Take Nevada. Projected score: Nevada 78, Wyoming 66.

12-26-24 Heat v. Magic UNDER 208.5 Top 89-88 Win 100 11 h 37 m Show

Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Orlando at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

These two teams recently met in a surprisingly high-scoring affair, with the Magic pulling out a 121-114 victory on December 21st. However, I anticipate a much different outcome in this rematch, with a slower pace and stronger defensive play dictating the flow of the game.

Miami has excelled defensively of late, holding three straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and seven of their last nine foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. On offense, the Heat have struggled to find rhythm, managing more than 41 made field goals only once in their last six games and being limited to exactly 36 in three straight contests.

Orlando has also leaned on its defense, holding four straight and seven of its last eight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Magic have been kept to 41 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last 10 games, contributing to their consistent 'under' trends.

While the previous matchup saw an unusually high shooting percentage from both teams, I expect this rematch to be far more subdued, especially with both squads well-rested and emphasizing defense.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Orlando 101, Miami 96.

12-21-24 Wake Forest v. Clemson -8.5 Top 62-73 Win 100 6 h 42 m Show

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Clemson minus the points over Wake Forest at 2 pm ET on Saturday.

Clemson is well-positioned for a strong performance here, returning home after consecutive "upset" losses against formidable Memphis (home) and South Carolina (away) teams. The Tigers have faced a challenging stretch but now find themselves in a favorable spot to rebound on their home floor. Clemson has been tough at home this season and should take advantage of this opportunity to right the ship.

Wake Forest, on the other hand, comes in off a two-game winning streak, including a convincing 75-58 home victory over James Madison. However, it's worth noting that those victories came on their home court. When the Demon Deacons have stepped up in competition on the road, the results have been less favorable, suffering double-digit losses at both Xavier and Texas A&M in their last two true road games.

This sets up as a game where Clemson's defensive intensity and home-court advantage can overwhelm Wake Forest, especially given the disparity in recent road performances for the Deacons. Expect Clemson to make a statement here.

Take Clemson. Projected score: Clemson 77, Wake Forest 62.

12-20-24 St. John's v. Providence +6.5 Top 72-70 Win 100 9 h 26 m Show

Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Providence plus the points over St. John's at 8 pm ET on Friday.

St. John's enters this matchup on a roll, having notched four consecutive wins, including three straight covers against the spread. However, all those victories came on their home court, where they have been particularly comfortable this season. Now, the Red Storm face a tougher test on the road against a Providence team that is eager to bounce back following a disappointing neutral-court loss to St. Bonaventure last Saturday.

Providence has already demonstrated its strength at home, highlighted by a commanding 83-64 win over BYU as 4.5-point underdogs in their last outing on their own floor. The Friars' home-court advantage should not be overlooked, as they have consistently performed well in front of their home crowd.

The Red Storm's recent success could lead to a slightly inflated point spread, creating value on the underdog Friars in this spot. Look for Providence to rise to the occasion and keep this game close, with a strong chance of pulling off the outright upset.

Take Providence. Projected score: Providence 72, St. John's 70.

12-19-24 Lakers v. Kings -4.5 Top 113-100 Loss -110 14 h 47 m Show

Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm ET on Thursday.

Sacramento enters this matchup looking to rebound from a frustrating one-point home loss to Denver on Monday. The Kings have been a force offensively, converting 49 or more field goals in three of their last four games while consistently pushing the pace with 90 or more field goal attempts in seven straight contests. This up-tempo style should put significant pressure on a Lakers team that thrives in slower-paced games but has struggled to control tempo recently, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in three of its last five games.

Offensively, the Lakers have been inconsistent, failing to make 40 field goals in three straight games and in nine of their last 11 overall. While they are coming off an upset home win against Memphis, the matchup with Sacramento presents a much tougher challenge, particularly with the Kings eager to bounce back on their home court.

Expect Sacramento’s relentless pace and efficient scoring to prove too much for Los Angeles to handle in this spot.

Take Sacramento. Projected score: Sacramento 122, Los Angeles 110.

12-16-24 76ers v. Hornets UNDER 216.5 Top 121-108 Loss -111 11 h 46 m Show

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Charlotte at 7 pm ET on Monday.

This matchup features two teams trending toward lower-scoring outcomes, and I anticipate more of the same here. While their December 3rd meeting resulted in an 'over,' it required a late surge in scoring to get there—something unlikely to repeat in this rematch.

The 76ers' offense has been consistently limited, failing to reach 44 made field goals in any of their 23 games this season. While Philadelphia gave up 47 field goals in their most recent outing against Indiana, that was an exception. Over the last 12 games, the Sixers have held 10 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals, showcasing their defensive strength.

Charlotte has struggled offensively, making 40 or fewer field goals in nine consecutive games. Despite their offensive woes, the Hornets have remained competitive defensively, holding 11 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer field goals.

With both teams leaning on defense and showing significant limitations on offense, especially in terms of efficiency, this contest is likely to grind its way to a lower total than their previous meeting.

Take the under. Projected score: Philadelphia 106, Charlotte 98.

12-13-24 Nets v. Grizzlies -11.5 Top 119-135 Win 100 12 h 21 m Show

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm ET on Friday.

Memphis has been an offensive juggernaut recently, consistently creating opportunities and converting at a high rate. The Grizzlies have hoisted 93 or more field goal attempts in six of their last seven games, knocking down 45 or more field goals in each of those six contests. This relentless pace will put tremendous pressure on a Brooklyn defense that has managed to limit opposing teams' field goals primarily due to slower game tempos rather than overwhelming defensive prowess. Brooklyn has struggled offensively, being held to 41 or fewer made field goals in five straight and eight of their last nine games, a trend unlikely to reverse against a Grizzlies defense that has limited its last eight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals despite several of those games featuring high shot volumes.

The Grizzlies also have the motivational edge, as they look to avenge a narrow 106-104 loss to the Nets earlier this season. That defeat came despite Memphis being favored by 4.5 points, a spread that reflects their capability to dominate this matchup. Playing at home, where they thrive, Memphis should dictate the tempo and overwhelm a Brooklyn team that lacks the firepower and consistency to keep pace.

Take Memphis. Projected score: Memphis 119, Brooklyn 104.

12-13-24 Indiana v. Nebraska -4 Top 68-85 Win 100 12 h 54 m Show

Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Nebraska minus the points over Indiana at 8 pm ET on Friday.

Indiana comes into this game riding a four-game winning streak, both straight-up and against the spread, but those victories all came in the favored role and against weaker opposition. This matchup against Nebraska marks a shift to underdog status and a significant step up in competition. While the Hoosiers have been firing on all cylinders offensively, averaging 28 or more made field goals in their last four games, they’ve benefited from facing defenses that have struggled to contain them. Nebraska, despite a lopsided loss at Michigan State last Saturday, has shown the ability to limit its opponents, holding its first seven foes to 26 or fewer made field goals.

The Cornhuskers have had five days to recover and regroup from their loss, and they’ll be eager to return to form on their home court, where they’re a perfect 5-0 this season. Nebraska’s defense will be key, as it seeks to slow down Indiana’s offense while exploiting a Hoosiers defense that has been less tested against high-quality opponents. Look for the Cornhuskers to set the tone early and control the game en route to a bounce-back victory.

Take Nebraska. Projected score: Nebraska 72, Indiana 63.

12-12-24 New Mexico State v. Texas -20 Top 67-91 Win 100 11 h 11 m Show

CBB Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas minus the points over New Mexico State at 8 pm ET on Thursday.

New Mexico State enters this contest fresh off a shocking 89-83 upset victory over New Mexico as a massive 20-point underdog on Saturday. That victory snapped a five-game losing skid and undoubtedly represents the high-water mark of the Aggies' season thus far. However, such an emotional win often leads to a letdown, especially when facing a powerhouse opponent like Texas. The Aggies' struggles prior to that upset reveal significant deficiencies on both ends of the floor, making them ill-equipped to handle the Longhorns in this spot.

Texas, on the other hand, will be eager to bounce back following a 76-65 loss to Connecticut on Sunday. That defeat marked just their second of the season, and it came against one of the top teams in the nation. The Longhorns have proven they can dominate inferior competition, with several blowout victories already this season. Look for their defense to stifle New Mexico State, while their deep and talented roster capitalizes on the Aggies’ defensive shortcomings.

Take Texas. Projected score: Texas 88, New Mexico State 61.

12-10-24 Mavs v. Thunder -4 Top 104-118 Win 100 14 h 40 m Show

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Dallas at 9:30 pm ET on Tuesday.

Dallas enters this matchup riding a seven-game winning streak, but it hasn’t been as dominant as the streak suggests. The Mavericks are coming off an ATS loss to Toronto on Saturday, and their offensive efficiency has been inconsistent, with three of their last five opponents holding them to 41 or fewer made field goals. Defensively, Dallas has struggled to limit opposing opportunities, allowing seven of its last nine foes to attempt at least 90 field goals.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is in excellent form, having won and covered in three straight games. The Thunder’s defensive intensity has been a hallmark of their success, holding six consecutive opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, they’re clicking, connecting on 42 or more field goals in four straight contests. With a chance to avenge a narrow two-point home loss to the Mavericks last month, expect a focused effort from OKC on Tuesday night.

Take Oklahoma City. Projected score: Oklahoma City 119, Dallas 108.

12-09-24 Knicks v. Raptors UNDER 232 Top 113-108 Win 100 11 h 6 m Show

Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 7:40 pm ET on Monday.

While the Knicks have seen their last three games go 'over' the total, those results were fueled more by efficient shooting than pace. New York has managed just 85, 76, and 79 field goal attempts in those contests, suggesting they haven't been pushing the tempo. On the defensive end, the Knicks have been steady, holding four of their last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals.

Toronto, meanwhile, has been solid defensively, allowing fewer than 40 made field goals in three of its last four and five of its last seven games. The Raptors' ability to force tough shots should help keep the scoring in check against a Knicks squad that has relied heavily on shooting efficiency to reach higher totals.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: New York 110, Toronto 106.

12-04-24 Pacers v. Nets OVER 226.5 Top 90-99 Loss -110 12 h 34 m Show

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

Indiana has been one of the most offense-oriented teams in the league, often turning games into high-scoring affairs, regardless of their opponents. The Pacers are fresh off a 122-111 loss in Toronto last night, marking their third straight defeat. Their defense has been consistently porous, allowing five consecutive opponents to connect on at least 44 field goals. Offensively, while Indiana fell short of its usual production last night, snapping a streak of 10 straight games with over 40 made field goals, the Pacers are primed for a bounce-back effort.

Brooklyn’s offensive struggles have been evident, but this matchup with Indiana provides a perfect opportunity for the Nets to find their rhythm. The Pacers' up-tempo style and defensive lapses should enable Brooklyn to put up points, especially considering the Nets have given up 40 or more made field goals in four of their last five contests.

This matchup sets up as a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Indiana 125, Brooklyn 119.

12-04-24 Rider +2 v. Fairfield Top 75-78 Loss -109 10 h 21 m Show

MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Rider plus the points over Fairfield at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

Rider has been tested against a grueling schedule to open the season, with challenging matchups against the likes of UCLA, Iowa and Villanova. The Broncs returned home for the first time this season on Saturday and fell by six points to Delaware. While their shooting performance in that game was subpar, expect improvement on Wednesday as they settle into a more favorable matchup.

Fairfield has struggled to contain its opponents despite playing at a slower pace. Over its last four games, the Stags have allowed opponents to knock down 26, 33, 22, and 26 field goals, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Rider, on the other hand, has shown resilience defensively, holding two of its last three opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals despite facing tough competition.

With Rider's battle-tested defense and potential for offensive improvement, this matchup sets up well for the Broncs to stay competitive.

Take Rider plus the points. Projected score: Rider 67, Fairfield 65.

12-02-24 Yale +4 v. Rhode Island Top 78-84 Loss -110 11 h 59 m Show

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Yale plus the points over Rhode Island at 7 pm ET on Monday.

Yale enters this game off a surprising loss to Delaware, falling to 4-4 on the season. While that defeat was disappointing, the Bulldogs have had over a week to regroup and prepare for this tough road test. Yale’s balanced offense and disciplined approach should serve it well against a Rhode Island team that thrives in high-energy contests.

Rhode Island's 7-0 start has been impressive on the surface, but it comes with a caveat: the Rams are just 2-4 ATS in lined games. That suggests they've struggled to cover against the spread even when favored. The Rams are also facing a quick turnaround, having played twice since Yale's last outing.

This game carries added motivation for the Bulldogs, who will be eager to avenge a close loss to the Rams in last season's meeting. Expect Yale’s steady pace and effective ball movement to keep this game competitive, with the potential for the Bulldogs to spring an outright upset.

Projected score: Yale 71, Rhode Island 68.

11-24-24 Liberty +2.5 v. Kansas State Top 67-65 Win 100 12 h 35 m Show

Game of the Week. My selection is on Liberty plus the points over Kansas State at 8 pm ET on Sunday.

Liberty has impressed to start the season, boasting a 5-1 record and an identity built around stifling defense and deliberate play. The Flames rank tied for 327th nationally in pace and are 48th in defensive rating, making them a challenging opponent for any team. Kansas State, while a solid 4-1, has shown some defensive vulnerabilities, ranking tied for 157th in defensive rating. Both teams prefer slower tempos, which should keep this matchup close and limit scoring runs.

This contest, part of the Paradise Jam in St. Thomas, finds both teams coming off dominant wins on Friday, but Liberty’s disciplined approach makes them well-suited to compete against Kansas State’s methodical style. With their ability to control the pace and disrupt opponents defensively, the Flames are a live underdog in what projects to be a tightly contested game.

Take Liberty. Projected score: Liberty 67, Kansas State 64.

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